5.

0 DISPERSION MODELLING
In EIA, Dispersion modelling is utilized to compute the ground level
concentrations (GLC) due to various point emission sources i.e. various stack
emissions.. A large number of phenomena have to be taken in to account such
as emissions of primary pollutants, atmospheric chemical transformations,
advection, turbulent diffusion and dry deposition. Both long term and short-
term models are used in the air quality studies.

In this chapter, MoEF approved Industrial Source Complex model (ISC-3) has
been utilized along with the Sodar data to assess ground level concentration.
The basis of the model is the straight-line steady state Gaussian Plume
equation (Gaussian Plume Model). Plume rise due to momentum and buoyancy
as a function of downwind distance is used. Emission sources are categorized
into four basic types namely point source, volume source, area sources and
open pit sources. For variation of wind speed with height, wind profile exponent
law is accepted 98-99.

5.1 Model Options The model options used in ISCST model for prediction of
short term (24 hr) incremental GLC of pollutants are as follows-

The plume rise is estimated by Briggs formula but the final rise is always
limited that of mixing layer.

Buoyancy induced dispersion is used to describe the increase in plume

dispersion.

Rural and flat terrain options are used for computations.

Wind profile exponents are used by default, as suggested by Irwin for

rural area.

It is assumed that the pollutants do not under go any physic-chemical

transformation and that there is no pollutant removal by dry deposition.

Hourly meteorological data used for GLC prediction.

158
 Adopting the above stated assumptions, the concentration C of gas or
aerosol of particles of size less than 20 microns at a point (X,Y,Z) (Fig 5.1)
from a continuous emitting source of effective stack height H is thus
given as per the simple Gaussian Plume Model by the equation:

Q y 2 z H 2 z H 2
C ( x, y , z ; H )
exp 2 exp exp
2u y z 2 y 2 z2
2 z2

Where x,y,z are the co-ordinates of any point in space with origin at the point
of release of emission;

C (x,y,z, H) is the concentration at a point x,y,z from the effective source of

height H;

Q is the uniform emission rate of the pollutants;

Sigmay and SigmaZ are the standard deviations of plume concentrations in

horizontal and vertical directions.

u is the mean wind speed

H is the effective height of emission release i.e. effective stack height plus
plume rise.

In arriving at the above equation, it is assumed that earth surface acts as a

perfect reflector of plume and that physic-chemical transformation of
pollutants is negligible.

159
 Figure 5.1: Co-ordinate System of Gaussian Plume Model

There are other equations in Gaussian plume model under different conditions.

Q y2 H 2
C ( x, y,0; H )
exp exp 2
u y z 2 y2 2 z
This equation is used for ground level concentration stack at height H

Q H 2
C ( x,0,0; H ) exp
2
u y z 2 z

This equation is used for ground level centre line concentration stack at height
H.

Q
C ( x,0,0;0)
u y z

This equation is used for ground level centre line ground point source.

160
5.1.2 Input Data for GLC predictions Dispersion models are the primary
tools used in the air quality analysis. These models estimate the ambient
concentrations that will result from the proposed emissions in combination
with emissions from existing sources. The estimated total concentrations are
used to demonstrate compliance with applicable NAAQS.

The dispersion modeling analysis involves two distinct phases;

A preliminary analysis; and

A full impact analysis.

The preliminary analysis models only the significant increase in potential

emissions of a pollutant from a proposed new source. The preliminary
analysis determines the necessity of full impact analysis. Specifically
preliminary analysis;

Determines whether detailed assessment for a particular pollutant is

necessary;
May allow the applicant to be exempted from the extensive ambient
monitoring data requirement;
To define impact area within which full impact analysis must be
carried out.

A full impact analysis is required for any pollutant for which the
estimated ambient pollutant concentration of proposed source exceeds
the prescribed significant ambient impact levels. This analysis expands
the preliminary analysis and in that it considers from;

The proposed source;

Existing source;
Residential, commercial and industrial growth that accompanies the
new activity at the new source (i.e. secondary emissions).

161
5.2 INPUT DATA FOR VINDHYAN REGION
Pollutants and pollution sources considered for computational deals with the
three major pollutants monitored at the site i.e. Suspended Particulate matter
(SPM), Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) and Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx). These pollutants are
from identifiable and quantifiable sources and are emitted by all the industries
in this region such as cement plants and lime kilns.

Cement Plants: The emission in cement plants takes from many sources such
as Kiln, Cooler, Cement Mills, Coal Mills, & Crushing etc. The data on stack
emission and chimney characterization have been collected from industries.
The average emissions have been used for estimation of pollution load.
Particulate is the major pollutants from all cement plants and lime kiln stacks.
Other emission of taken importance is SO2 which is emitted from captive
power plants. The source input data of cement plants is presented in Table 5.1.

Lime Kilns: In case of lime kilns, the concentration of pollutants is not

available as the operations of limekilns are not organized and no facilities exist
for monitoring. The CPCB has conducted some studies on lime kilns and
produced Comprehensive Industry Document on Lime Kilns covering all types
of limekilns across the country. (www.cpcb.nic.in) the relevant emission data
is used as input for models to estimate the GLC.

The average ranges of pollutants emitted from limekilns are:

Particulate matter: 1100-1500 mg/Nm3

SO2: 30-15 mg/Nm3

NOx: 0.3-0.8 mg/Nm3

However, in the absence of details of pollution control in limekilns, the

limekilns located in clusters have been grouped and considered as one point
emission to estimate the pollution load.

162
 Source Ht. of Stack Dia of Velocity Emission of SPM
Sr.No.
Stack (mtrs) Stack (m) (m/sec) (g/sec)
ACC
1
Cement
a) Kiln 1 100 4 9.7 15.2
b) Kiln 2 115 4 16.8 14.8
c) Cooler 1 60 3.5 18.2 8.9
d) Cooler 2 68 3.5 17.9 9.4
e) CPP 98 2.4 15.9 3.9
2 Birla Vikas
a) Kiln 1 64.7 3 14.8 9.26
Prism
3
Cements
a) Kiln 1 125 4.5 17.6 11.3
b) Coal Mill 45 2.2 14.9 3.1
Maiher
4
Cements
a) Kiln 1 80 4.2 14.9 20.2
b) Kiln 2 102 4.6 9.8 15.8
c) CPP 71 3.5 15.2 9.8
JP Rewa
5
Cements
a) Kiln 1 95 3.5 16.8 22.5
b) Kiln 2 96 4.5 11.8 19.7
c) Cooler 1 35 3.2 8.6 7.5
d) Cooler 2 42 4.2 10.5 12.1
JP Bela
6
Cements
a) Kiln 1 110 4.2 15.2 18.4
b) Cooler 45 4.2 12.8 9.8
c) Coal Mill
42 2.1 12.5 4.25
Dryer
Table 5.1 Stack and Emission Details of various Stacks

163
5.2.1 Meteorological Data Various Micro-meteorological factors are
responsible for the transport of pollutants in atmosphere (100,101,102). Therefore,
knowledge of meteorological data is essential as far as dispersion modeling is
concerned. Wind speed, Wind Direction, Atmospheric Stability and Mixing
Height are the important input parameters for dispersion modeling. These are
called Primary input parameters. Ambient temperature, Humidity, Pressure etc
are the secondary input parameters as these control the dispersion of the
pollutants indirectly by attesting primary parameters.

The meteorological data has been generated at site and collected from IMD
also. The area experiences tropical climate with considerable temperature
variations during summer and winter. The temperature ranges between 8oC to
12 oC in winter, while it is 48 oC during the peak summer months. As per the
climate, we can classify year as follows:

Pre Monsoon: March to June

Monsoon: July to September

Post Monsoon: October to November

Winter: December to February

The monthly averages of wind speed, temperatures, rain fall and relative
humidity is given in the Tables 5.2 to 5.5

164
 Table 5.2 Monthly maximum and minimum temperatures

Minimum
Month Maximum Temp. OC
Temp. OC
January 7.45 23.60
February 10.70 28.00
March 17.40 33.10
April 20.50 37.90
May 26.03 42.80
June 26.20 35.80
July 25.10 33.60
August 22.50 35.70
September 20.70 32.00
October 18.40 33.80
November 17.60 30.50
December 12.20 26.10
Table 5.3 Monthly rainfall data in the area

Month Rainfall in mm
January 34.80
February 21.50
March 13.70
April 10.10
May 11.10
June 126.00
July 356.20
August 320.70
September 175.50
October 45.20
November 11.60
December 5.10

165
 Month Relative Humidity
January 71.00
February 64.00
March 45.00
April 34.00
May 30.00
June 53.00
July 82.00
August 84.00
September 85.00
October 63.00
November 67.00
December 62.00
Table 5.4 Monthly relative humidity

Avg. Wind Speed

Month Direction
(Km/hr)
January 2.10 NW
February 2.20 NW
March 3.40 W
April 5.00 NW
May 6.00 SSW
June 7.60 W
July 8.00 NW
August 4.60 W
September 4.20 NW
October 1.20 NW
November 1.25 NW
December 1.50 NW
Table 5.5 Monthly Wind Flow Pattern

166
5.2.2 Determination of Stability Classes Stability of the atmospheric layers
is taken as the basic indication of the turbulence of the atmosphere and is the
most critical and often most difficult to determine meteorological parameter
involved in pollution dispersion modeling. The choice of stability class affects
each of the following parameters:

Dispersion coefficients (Sigma Y and Sigma Z).

Plume rise and hence effective stack height (He).

Wind velocity profile.

There are number of alternate ways to determine stability classes as:

Pasquill Turners Table

Lapse Rate method

Stability class from wind fluctuations method and

Stability class classification by SODAR method

SODAR stability has been used in dispersion modeling because this method is
best suited to complete vertical dispersion 103-104. The data of stability class is
given in chapter4.

5.2.3 Determination of Mixing Height Mixing height for mixing of pollutants

released into the air close to ground level is essentially the height of ground
based inversions that act as an invisible lid and interfere with plume rise and
also the vertical dispersion of pollutants. The nocturnal mixing depth and day
time height have been derived from SODAR echograms of one year. SODAR
gives the site specific data. The SODAR data has been given in chapter 4.

5.2.4 Ventilation Coefficient (VC) Ventilation coefficient can be used as a

measure of assimilative capacity of air environment. Ventilation coefficient
depends on mixing height and wind speed, which changes with the height
above ground.

167
Ventilation coefficient = Mixing Height x Wind Speed

Ventilation coefficient is the indicator of horizontal and vertical mixing

potential. Table 5.6 gives classification of Ventilation Coefficient by US
Meteorological centre.

VC Category Score Remarks

1 <2000 m2/sec Very low dispersion

2 2000-4000 m2/sec Low dispersion

3 4000-6000 m2/sec Medium dispersion

4 6000-10000 m2/sec Higher dispersion

5 10000-12000 m2/sec Excellent dispersion

and above

Table 5.6 Classification of Ventilation Coefficient by US Meteorological

centre.

The average wind speed and mixing height prevailing during different seasons
in Vindhyan region are furnished in Table 5.7 & 5.8 respectively.

Season Average wind Maximum wind Minimum wind

speed (m/sec) speed (m/sec) speed (m/sec)

Post Monsoon 3.5 5.6 1.9

Winter 2.2 3.5 0.8

Pre-Monsoon 3.2 4.8 2.1

Monsoon 4.3 6.4 2.4

Table 5.7 Average wind speeds during different season

168
Season Day Time (8 am to 6 pm) Night Time (7 pm to 7 pm)

Average Maximum Minimum Average Maximum Minimum

Monsoon 647 946 100 71 82 68

Post 994 1550 70 78 108 68

Monsoon

Pre 1034 1540 95 91 125 68

Monsoon

Winter 793 1250 70 71 105 62

Table 5.8 Average Mixing Height during different season

Based on the above mixing height and wind speeds, the Ventilation Coefficient
are for all the four seasons during day time and night time are computed and
furnished in Table 5.9.

Season Average Maximum Remarks

Day Time

Monsoon 2782 4067 Very low to

medium
dispersion

Post Monsoon 3479 5425 Very low to

medium
dispersion

Pre Monsoon 3308 4928 Very low to

medium
dispersion

Winter 1744 2750 Very low to

medium
dispersion

Night Time

Monsoon 305 352 Very low

169
 dispersion

Post Monsoon 273 378 Very low

dispersion

Pre Monsoon 291 400 Very low

dispersion

Winter 156 231 Very low

dispersion

Table 5.9 Ventilation coefficient during day and night time (m2/sec)

On overall, the Ventilation Coefficient (VC) are medium to higher during day
time in all the seasons ensuring good dispersion of pollutants. The monsoon
season is the best season among all seasons for vertical mixing of pollutants
followed by post monsoon season. Winter is the critical season for dispersion of
pollutants.

5.2.5 Prediction of Air Quality through ISCST3 Model ISCST3 model has
been run for calculating the Ground Level concentration (GLC), the hourly
meteorological data has been used and the winter and post monsoon season is
used to predict the likely maximum GLC.

The computed predicted ambient air quality levels with existing scenarios
during winter and Post monsoon season is furnished in Table 5.10 & 5.11

Sr.No. Maximum Concentration in

g/m3

1 1st Maximum 92.89

2 2nd Maximum 76.18

3 3rd Maximum 70.26

4 4th Maximum 69.28

5 5th Maximum 65.89

Table 5.10 Predicted concentrations with existing activities in winter

170
Sr.No. Maximum Concentration in
g/m3

1 1st Maximum 52.23

2 2nd Maximum 48.26

3 3rd Maximum 46.95

4 4th Maximum 41.29

5 5th Maximum 39.89

Table 5.11 Predicted concentrations with existing activities in Post

Monsoon

5.3 INPUT DATA FOR COASTAL REGION

Pollutants and pollution sources considered for computational deals with the
two major pollutants monitored at the site i.e. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) and Oxides
of Nitrogen (NOx). These pollutants are from identifiable and quantifiable
sources and are emitted by the thermal plant in this region.

5.3.1 Meteorology The meteorological data is necessary for the proper

interpretation of baseline information of ambient air quality and other
environmental attributes (Air Pollution dispersion Modeling). It is important to
understand the meteorological conditions of the study area for the evaluation of
impacts of the proposed expansion. Historical data on meteorological
parameters also plays an important role in identifying the synoptic
meteorological regime of the region.

5.3.1.1 Data Presentation The following are the important parameters for
dispersion modeling.

5.3.1.1.1Temperature: The winter season in the region starts from December

and continues till the end of February. January is the coldest month with the
mean daily maximum temperature of 31.7C with the mean daily minimum
temperature of 23.3C. The day and night temperature increase rapidly during

171
the onset of Pre-monsoon season from March to May. During pre-monsoon
season the mean maximum temperature (March) is observed to be 32.8C with
the mean minimum temperature of 24.4C. By the end of September with the
onset of Northeast monsoon (October), day temperatures increase slightly with
the mean maximum temperature of 30.5C. The monthly variations of
temperatures are presented in Table-5.11 and Figure-5.2

35

30
Temperature (oC)

25

20

15

10

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Max Min

Figure-5.2 Variation in Temperature

5.3.1.1.2 Relative Humidity: The air is generally very humid in the region
especially during monsoon when the maximum relative humidity is observed to
be around 91% and 85% at 830 hour and 1730 hours respectively. In the pre-
monsoon period the max relative humidity is 83% and 78% at 830 and 1730
hours respectively. . The monthly mean variations in relative humidity are
presented in Table-5.12 and Figure-5.3

172
 100
90

Relative Humidity (%)

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months 0830 Hr 1730 Hr

Figure-5.3 Variation in Relative Humidity

5.3.1.1.3 Atmospheric Pressure: The atmospheric pressure observed is in the

range of 1005.5 to 1012.5 mb, with the maximum pressure (1012.5 mb)
occurring during the winter season, in the month of December.

It can be seen from the data that not much variations is observed in the
average atmospheric pressure levels. The pressure levels are found to be fairly
constant over the region. The monthly variations in the pressure levels are
presented in Table-5.12 and Figure-5.4

173
 1014

1012

Atmospheric Pressure (mb)

1010

1008

1006

1004

1002
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
0830 Hr 1730 Hr

Figure-5.4 Variation in Atmospheric Pressure

5.3.1.1.4 Rainfall: The average annual rainfall in the region based on

the 10 years IMD data is 3268 mm. The southwest monsoon generally
sets in during the last week of May. About 58% of the rainfall is
received during the southwest monsoon. The rainfall gradually
decreases after July. The Northeast monsoon sets in the month of
October and contributes to the rainfall by about 19% of the total
rainfall. The maximum number of rainy days occurs in the month of
June. Annual and monthly variations in the rainfall are given in
Table-5.12 and Figure-5.5

174
 900
800
Rainfall (mm) 700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan Feb M ar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months

Figure-5.5 Variation in Rainfall

Table 5.12 Climatological Table

Month Atmospheric Temperature Relative Rainfall
Pressure (Mb) (0C) Humidity (%) (mm)

0830 1730. Max Min. 0830 1730.

January 1012.2 1008.4 31.8 22.5 74 68 18.9

February 1011.9 1007.6 31.7 23.3 76 70 27.8

March 1011.5 1007.8 32.8 24.4 76 71 73.8

April 1009.4 1006.1 32.5 25.8 78 73 159.3

May 1008.1 1005.5 31.2 25.6 83 78 459.2

June 1008.5 1006.6 29.7 23.5 90 85 780.2

July 1009.8 1007.2 28.5 23.1 91 85 522.5

August 1009.6 1007.3 28.1 23.6 91 85 312.6

September 1010.4 1007.1 29.6 23.2 86 82 270.4

175
October 1010.1 1007.8 29.2 23.9 85 81 396.2

November 1011.8 1008.1 30.5 23.2 81 76 210.5

December 1012.5 1008.5 31.6 22.6 75 68 37.2

(Station: IMD)

5.3.1.1.5 Wind Speed/Direction Generally, light to moderate winds

prevail through out the year. The calm hours observed are 1.7-%.
Winds are light and moderate particularly during the morning
hours, while during the afternoon hours the winds are stronger.
Winds are stronger during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons.
During the period January to May, the winds strengthen in the
afternoons. In the southwest monsoon season the winds are mainly
northwesternely and northeasternly. During the rest of the year
winds are northeasterly to easterly in the mornings and blow from
directions between southwest and northwest in the afternoons.
Predominantly the winds during evening are found to be
northwesterly. This phenomenon indicates the influence of land and
sea breeze over the area. Table 5.12 shows the mean wind speed

Table-5.12 Mean Wind speed and predominant wind direction

Mean Wind Predominant Wind Direction
Month
Speed (km/hr) Morning Evening

January 9.8 E NW

February 11.3 E NW

March 11.9 NE NW

April 12.9 NE NW

May 14.8 NE NW

June 11.9 NE NW

July 12.8 NE/NW NW

176
 Mean Wind Predominant Wind Direction
Month
Speed (km/hr) Morning Evening

August 11.9 NW NW

September 10.5 NE NW

October 11.3 NE NW

November 10.2 NE NW

December 9.2 E N

Annual mean wind speed 11.5 km/hr (source: IMD)

5.3.2 Summary of Climatological Observations Based on the analysis of 10

years climatological data, the observations are summarized below.
a) The temperature variation is less and is to the extent of 5OC between
maximum and minimum, which reveals that the area is experiencing
moderately warm conditions.
b) Pressure difference of about 5-6 mb between synoptic hours shows
the area is influenced by sea, which reveals that the cold sea air mass
is prevailing over the area during the early hours.
c) The wind direction changes in the region during the morning and
evening hours and higher Relative humidity in the morning hours at
0830 IST shows the influence of land and sea breeze.

5.3.3 Prediction of Air quality through ISCST3 Air dispersion modeling has
been carried out for thermal power plant which is near coastal area and the
main pollutants in Thermal Power Plants are SO2 and Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx),
so that model is used for these pollutants as well as particulate matter also.

The results of air quality modeling for winter season is furnished in Table 5.13

177
 Table: 5.13 modeling results

Maximum Incremental Levels Direction

(g/m3)

SO2 NOx

44.6 36.4 SE

24.0 18.0 SE

22.0 20.0 SE

13.0 11.0 W

28.0 22.5 NNE

28.1 63.3 N

16.0 35.0 SE

16.0 35.0 SE

10.0 22.5 W

14.0 35.0 NNE

From the air quality modeling result, it can be observed that maximum
concentrations of pollutants are occurring in winter season due to less
availability of mixing height and stable conditions prevailed in the atmosphere.

The same study (Air quality modeling) has been carried out for Hisar city to
find out the concentration and level of pollution load. From this study also it is
found that the maximum concentration has been found in winter season. The
wind speed in Hisar city is very low, and the actual mixing height data was not
available, data has been collected from Delhi and run for the model and try to
highlight the importance of SODAR data. The mathematical modeling results
have been given in Table 5.14. The Input parameters for the model is Qs=4.0
gm/Sec, Hs=37.0 m, Ts= 333 Vs= 7.0 m/sec and Ds= 4.0 m

178
 Table: 5.14 modeling results for Hisar City

STACK 3HR
SR.NO. g/m3
HEIGHT CONCENTRATION
1 37 M FIRST HIGHEST 23.46
SECOND HIGHEST 16.83
24 HR
CONCENTRATION
FIRST HIGHEST 4.32
SECOND HIGHEST 4.16
3HR
CONCENTRATION
2 47 M FIRST HIGHEST 18.42
SECOND HIGHEST 12.83
24 HR
CONCENTRATION
FIRST HIGHEST 3.65
SECOND HIGHEST 3.52
3HR
CONCENTRATION
3 57 M FIRST HIGHEST 14.2
SECOND HIGHEST 9.87
24 HR
CONCENTRATION
FIRST HIGHEST 3.17
SECOND HIGHEST 2.98
3HR
CONCENTRATION
4 67 M FIRST HIGHEST 10.75
SECOND HIGHEST 9.06
24 HR
CONCENTRATION
FIRST HIGHEST 2.84
SECOND HIGHEST 2.61

From all these findings it has been found that, the incremental concentration
depends upon stability class, and wind speed, winter is the worst season

179
because in this season, temperature inversions dominate and the vertical
mixing of pollutants retards. Also fog remains for longer time and due to fog
fumigation condition takes place and in fumigation condition downward mixing
takes place which is the worst condition.

On the other hand, in summer season dispersion of pollutants at is excellent,

as higher plume rises result in the lower ground level concentration (GLC) at
given distance from the plume source.

In this chapter, mathematical modeling has been carried out to assess the
incremental concentration due to the existing and proposed activities mainly in
the Vindhya and the coastal regions. The Vindhyan region hosts activities
primarily for cement production as the basic raw material is in abundance. As
an ancillary to cement plants, hundreds of stone crusher units contribute so
much to the particulate matter that a realistic assessment of airborne
pollutants is the most important parameter for mathematical modeling in this
region. While in coastal region, mathematical modeling has been carried out
for a thermal power plant and the assessment of sulphur-di-oxide and oxides of
nitrogen are important parameters for dispersion modeling. And efforts have
made to carry out the same studies in Hisar city, where only surface based
parameters have been utilized as the realistic Sodar data was not available for
mathematical modeling.

On the basis of these studies, it has been found that In Vindhya region, the
wind speed are low during post monsoon season it varies 1.9-5.6 m/sec, while
during winter season it varies between 0.8 to 3.5 m/sec, in monsoon season it
varies between 2.4 to 6.4 m/sec while in summer season the wind speed varies
between 2.4 to 4.8 m/sec, similarly the wind speed are lower in Hisar City, so
maximum time vertical dispersion of pollutants will take place, due to vertical
dispersion of pollutants the near by area will be affected. On the other hand in
coastal region the wind speed at higher side so that horizontal dispersion of
pollutants will take place and the area will be affected far from the source.

180
Based on the work presented in the thesis, the next Chapter discusses the
outcome of the thesis in the present context and offers certain
recommendations to carry out this type of work at many more sites in India.
This will strengthen or support the present work and at the same time, it will
establish soda rasa useful technique for determining real time mixing height/
stability class data.

181