How long will it take for Squamish to be submerged by the ocean?

Jason Ames, Josie Bauman, Arnaud Michel, Elin Sober-Williams

June 6th 2017

COGGLE: https://coggle.it/diagram/WSyvCND2YAABDY9g

DRIVE: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B30ML0A6wu7QcURGNDg1eXZTVGM

EXCEL (10 yr time step):

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B-_d8PdAuyz2bHBlUTlMVHoyY1E

EXCEL (5 yr time step):

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B-_d8PdAuyz2Mkx1WlZjLTlOX0k
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TableofContents

Abstract 2

Introduction 2

Methods 4

Model 4

DeterministicVariables 5

ProbabilisticVariables

Results 9

DeterministicVariables 9

ProbabilisticVariables

10

ModelResults 11

FurtherReferencePoints 12

Discussion 13

SensitivityAnalysis 15

LimitationsofDataandVariables 16

ScienceandDecisionMaking 18

Recommendations 19

StructuralDefenses 19

PolicyforDevelopment 20

Relocationofthelandownerstoafloodsafezone 21

Conclusion 22

LiteratureCited 22

AppendixA 26
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Abstract

The contribution of glacial melt, storm surge, and climate change is leading to a rapidly rising sea

level that is threatening Squamish, British Columbia with a state of perpetual submergence. Taking

these variables into account, a cumulative probability estimate model was constructed that calculates

the likelihood of flooding in Squamish over time. Data from our model suggests that downtown

Squamish will be continuously flooded within the next 200 years. Policy and development in

Squamish should incorporate these findings during future developments. We recommend that

developments on the floodplain should be pursued judiciously, if at all.

1. Introduction

Sea level rise is a phenomenon that threatens coastal towns and cities all over the world.

Measurements have been collected which show that global mean sea level has been rising consistently

for at least the past century (Church and White, 2011). Since 23% of the worlds population lives

within 100 km of coastline, individuals and cities will have to adapt rapidly as this predicted trend

unfolds (Nicholls & Small, 2002). Human induced climate change significantly contributes to this

trend (Salinger, 2005). Runoff from glacial melt and thermal expansion of the ocean is steadily

increasing the total volume of the Earths oceans (Church et al., 2013). Climate models reported on by

the IPCC in 2013 project sea level rise to continue into the foreseeable future for all possible CO2

reduction scenarios (Church et al., 2013). An estimated 1m increase in sea level by the year 2100 has

been reported as robust for all global temperature increases equivalent to 1.8C and above, a threshold

that will now be nearly impossible to avoid (Rahmstorf et al., 2012).

Squamish, a low-lying delta town located on the Howe Sound between Vancouver and

Whistler in southwestern British Columbia, is particularly at risk of flooding. Though sea level rise is

arguably the most certain environmental danger to the well-being of the Squamish community,
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additional variables also threaten to flood the area. The district of Squamish is situated in a floodplain

that has historically been subjected to destructive flooding from the Squamish and Mamquam Rivers.

A massive flooding event in 1906 reportedly resulted in many settlers [being] completely wiped out

(IFHMP, 2014). Impacts from climate change such as increased river volumes from glacial melt are

likely to have a direct impact on Squamish, with the potential increase in frequency and intensity of

flooding in the area (Shaw, 1998). While some variables are more likely to manifest than others, this

multi-faceted threat of massive flooding indicates that the future of Squamish is precarious.

Given the confidence of climate change projections it is important that the municipality of

Squamish be provided with an accurate probability of Squamish being flooded by a certain year so

policy and development can work proactively to prevent damage to the area. Though previous studies

have been conducted to inform the Squamish municipality about expected sea level rise, more

research is required that involves more dynamic aspects including the coastal water levels during

storms and fluctuations based on large-scale weather patterns such as El Nio is required(Barnard et

al., 2015). This study aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the probabilistic submersion of

Squamish. In this study Squamish is considered submerged when the Squamish District Office

(37955, 2nd Avenue) in the downtown core is flooded, meaning water levels are greater than 4m high,

because at this stage the functionality of the downtown core would be severely impaired (Elevation

Map 2017). Our objective is to build a probabilistic model that will provide information on the

likelihood of a massive flooding event occurring over time.

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Fig. 1 - Canoeists on the corner of Victoria and Cleveland Avenue in downtown Squamish during a

flooding event in 1940 (Squamish Library, 2017)

2. Methods

2.1 Model

The method utilized was a cumulative probability estimate in which the major variables affecting sea

and river levels in Squamish are integrated into a single model as probability over time. The

probability estimated by our model was the likelihood that Squamish City Hall in downtown

Squamish, a building sitting at an elevation of 4m, will experience flooding. This building was chosen

as our focus point because its elevation is within +/- 1m of most locations in the surrounding

downtown area and because of its significance to the Squamish community. Two types of variables

were identified: deterministic variables that produce predictable values at a consistent rate such as sea

level rise or subsidence (the rate at which a land mass is sinking), and probabilistic variables with a

greater degree of uncertainty which occur at an inconsistent frequency over a ten year time period,

such as storm surges and local tsunamis. Deterministic variables were summed to produce definitive

values for water levels in Squamish. The addition of probabilistic estimates then allowed for insight
 5

into the probability of Squamish experiencing a major flooding event prior to the date of permanent

submersion given by deterministic variables.

Equation 1

Where:

P (X 4) : Probability that water level is 4m or higher than 2010 sea levels

S l : Sea level at different time steps

S e : Subsidence rate

S tx : Storm of height necessary for flooding

P (S t ) : Probability of a storm surge

P (R) : Probability of Squamish River and Mamquam River flooding

P (T sub ) : Probability of a tsunami triggered by a submarine slide

P (T air ) : Probability of a tsunami triggered by a sub-aerial slide

P (D) : Probability of Daisy Lake dam failure

P (C) : Probability of Cheakamus River dam creation and breaking

P (G) : Probability of Garibaldi Lake Barrier breaking

2.2 Deterministic Variables

The two deterministic variables incorporated into our model are sea level rise and subsidence.

Sea level rise projections were sourced from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5

scenario of the IPCCs 2013 report, though these estimates only provide values for the 21st century

(IPCC, 2013). Post 21st century values were estimated utilizing the computer program Crystal Ball

(see Appendix A). The IPCCs worst case scenario of RCP 8.5 is chosen for this study due to the
 6

belief that even the IPCCs lowest estimation is conservative (Rich Wildman, personal

correspondence, May 2017). Subsidence, the downward movement of a continental plate, is slowly

decreasing the elevation of Squamish (Kerr Wood Leidal, 2015). Given the relatively small geological

time period we are viewing, the rate of subsidence is taken as a constant. The most important

deterministic variable in the model is sea level rise. Land subsidence is combined with sea level rise to

provide the equation in Figure 2.

Fig. 2 - Projected sea level rise due to climate change, taking land subsidence into account. This is a

conservative estimate based on IPCC RCP 8.5 data which assumes energy intensity will not improve

(Riahi et al., 2011).

The subsidence present allows for an understanding of the movement of the North American

continental plate and in the specific case of Squamish a negative, downwards, rate. The subsidence is

taken as a constant rate since the timescale on which we are examining the potential for flooding in

Squamish is relatively very short in comparison to geological timescales. Whilst we are examining

events in the hundreds of years, geological events which are likely to change the subsidence rather
 7

occur on millions of years (President and Fellows of Harvard College, 2014; Cliff, 2014). The sea

level rise estimates and projections come from the IPCC report published in 2013 where estimates are

made until 2100 (Reference IPCC report, 2013). The IPCCs worst case scenario, RCP 8.5 is utilised

in this study due to the researcher's belief that this is on the conservative end of the reality which will

unfold in the coming years, table of the sea level rise estimates is available in Appendix A. These

estimates are then extrapolated through Crystal Ball with Oracle as seen in Appendix A to produce a

deterministic estimate of the submersion of the reference point in Squamish.

2.3 Probabilistic Variables

The probabilistic elements incorporated into the model are primarily low frequency high

impact events. Included are: storm surges, local tsunamis from submarine delta slides or sub-aerial

slides, river flooding from the Squamish and Mamquam Rivers, Cheakamus River landslides, a dam

failure at Daisy Lake, and the collapse of the Garibaldi Lake barrier. Probability calculations for these

variables can be found in Tables 1 & 2 in the results section.

Storm surges with consequent rises in sea-level due to strong winds and atmospheric pressure

changes can send tall waves up Howe Sound towards Squamish, potentially resulting in temporary

submersion (Kerr Wood Leidal Consulting Engineers, 2015).

Local tsunamis can occur under two conditions, the first being submarine delta slides and the

second being sub-aerial slides (Kerr Wood Leidal Consulting Engineers, 2015). The submarine slides

of the Squamish River delta are not uncommon. Over a ten month period in 2011, 98 discrete mass

wasting events, as well as 5 consequent events (>20,000 m), occurred (Hughes Clarke et al., 2012).

These submarine slides are due to significant sediment transport and mass wasting on the prodelta

slope (Hughes Clarke et al., 2012). For a tsunami to occur an event larger than those recorded by

Hughes Clarke et al. is required, probably a material displacement similar to the 3 x 10 m submarine

slope collapse that took place in Kitimat in 1975 (Murty, 1979). In regards to the sub-aerial rock

slides, two specific points along the side slopes of Howe Sound are particularly at risk of failures:
 8

above Britannia Beach, and south of Squamish weak deposits of Garibaldi volcanic rock (Kerr Wood

Leidal Consulting Engineers, 2015). Similar to the Kitimat inlet, the fjord-like landscape of the Howe

Sound is conducive to channeling waves and tsunami-like events up Howe Sound resulting in

potentially damaging tsunamis.

Flooding from the Squamish and Mamquam Rivers has been a frequent issue for the

Squamish community with at least 12 major flooding events having taken place over the past 80

years. However, flood protection has since been built into the banks of these rivers in an effort to

mitigate such events.

The Daisy Lake dam, located up the valley from Squamish, is able to release large amounts of

water, up to 805 ms, when abnormally large inflows from the Cheakamus River are present (Dam

Safety, 2016). These inflows cause a quick and significant increase in the total volume of water held

by the reservoir and require the opening of the dams floodgates.

The formation and break of dam in the Cheakamus River could occur due to the proximity

and instability of the Garibaldi Lake Barrier (Kerr Wood Leidal Consulting Engineers, 2015). The

Garibaldi Lake Barrier is unstable and repetitively crumbles with rockslides and has the potential

(when under seismic pressures and conditions) to release a significant rockslide into the Cheakamus

River to dam it temporarily (Moore and Mathews, 1978). It is a rockslide such as the one in question

that formed the initial Daisy Lake dam and impaired the flow of the Cheakamus River (Moore and

Mathews, 1978).

The final probabilistic variable accounted for is the potential collapse of the of the Garibaldi

Lake Barrier. Though this event is highly improbable on the time scale we are concerned with, its

inevitability is rather certain. The collapse of the barrier could be triggered by a number of forces, but

would most likely come from extreme seismic activity. Should such a collapse occur, the immediate

result would be the flow of a 120m high wave through the Squamish valley into Howe Sound (Powell,

2015) (Information for this section was acquired through personal correspondence with geologist

Steve Quane of Quest University Canada).

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3. Results

Through the use of the model designed the reference point of 4m is expected to be submerged by the

end of 2230.

3.1 Deterministic Variables

The subsidence rate is taken to be - 1.6 mmy from the Kerr Wood Leidal report on the District of

Squamish Integrated Flood Hazard Management Plan. (Kerr Wood Leidal, 2015). This is an

indication that Squamish itself and the land around it is sinking slowly along with the North American

continental plate.

The sea level rise, although deterministic, will not be constant throughout the next hundreds

of years due to the impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2013). It is thus extrapolated from the RCP 8.5

scenario from the IPCC where the sea level rise is estimated from 2010 to 2100 and can be seen as

increasing as in Figure 2, Appendix A (IPCC, 2013). The sea level rise and subsidence are combined

and this combined sea level is represented as increasing exponentially as seen in Figure 3.

Fig. 3 - Graph demonstrating the increase in sea level height over the years.
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3.2 Probabilistic Variables

The probabilities of various low frequency high impact events in the region surrounding Squamish

which would cause a flood of the area are outlined in Table 1. The probabilities for Table 1 are

calculated over a ten year time step as to make sense out of the long term outcome. Storm surges

which have a variability in their probabilities are outlined according to the height addition to the sea

level and their probability of occurring within the ten year time step, and can be seen in Table 2.

Events Probability of occurring Reference

within a 10 year time span
Mamquam and Squamish River 0.00150000 Squamish Public Library, 2017
Floods
Dam Failure at Daisy Lake 0.00100000 Dam Safety, 2016

Cheakamus River landslide dam 0.00666666 Moore and Mathews, 1978

Local tsunami (sub-aerial slides) 0.00020000 Clague et al., 2005

Local tsunami (submarine slides) 0.00020000 Clague et al., 2005

Garibaldi Lake Barrier collapse 0.00000001 Powell, 2015

Storms See Table X Kerr Wood Leidal, 2015

Table 1. Table of the probabilities of low frequency high impact events.

Storm Surges

Probability of occurring within a 10 Additional height above sea

year time span level (in m)

1.00 0.73

1.00 0.83

1.00 0.9

0.40 1.0
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0.20 1.1

0.10 1.2

0.02 1.3

0.01 1.4

Table 2. Probabilities of different storm surge heights occurring within a 10 year time span (Kerr

Wood Leidal, 2015).

3.3 Model Result

The use of model (1) with the deterministic and probabilistic variables results in providing a

deterministic answer for when the reference point is submerged as well as the probabilistic estimates

of it being flooded. This can be seen in Figure 4.

Fig. 4 - Graph showing cumulative probability over years for which the reference point at 4m above

sea level is flooded and then by 2230 submerged. A cumulative probability of 1 represents a certainty

that Squamish will be submerged by the year on the x-axis whilst prior it is simply a probability of

flooding.
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As seen in Figure 4, there is a spike in the probability showing that Squamish will deterministically be

flooded by a certain year. The upward trend before the spike in the graph represents the likelihood that

due to sea level rise in conjunction with low frequency, high-impact events Squamish would be

flooded. The increase in probability occurs primarily due to the increase in storm surge-related

flooding. Storm surges can only attain certain heights, so once sea level increases it becomes

increasingly likely for the storm surges to flood Squamish. The linear trends are due to the

probabilities of the low frequency high impact events being low while moderately increasing with

time. This phenomenon is partly due to the approximation and belief that over time the probabilities

of the low frequency high impact events do not change significantly over the time scale these models

are addressing.

3.4 Further Reference Points

The study conducted on the reference point can also be propagated to include various heights in

Squamish to determine the date by which they will be submerged along with the probability of

flooding prior to that. This was conducted for heights 5, 6, 7, 8 and 10m above sea level as seen in

Figure 5. These heights represent Zephyr at a 5m height, Howe Sound Brewpub at a 6m height, Mags

99 at a 7m height, the Sea to Sky highway segment by Downtown Squamish at an 8m height and

Walmart at a 10m height.

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Fig. 5 - Graph showing cumulative probability over years for which different heights in Squamish are

flooded and then submerged. A cumulative probability of 1 represents a certainty that Squamish will

be submerged by the year on the x-axis whilst prior it is simply a probability of flooding.

As the reference points examined are at higher elevations the time taken for the deterministic

submersion of the point increases. By the year 2230 the 4m height reference point will be submerged,

by 2260 the 5m point, 2290 the 6m point, 2320 the 7m point, and by 2400 the 10m point. The linear

timeline represents a 30 year time period per meter increase of sea level.

4. Discussion

Given the output from this model it is clear that this data is not immediately threatening to the people

of Squamish since submersion is 200 years off. However, it is almost certain that even if extreme

measures are taken to reverse the factors that contribute to climate change, ocean levels will continue

to rise for some time (IPCC, 2013). With this in mind, there are measures that the district of Squamish

must take to maintain livability in the area. The most crucial course of action for Squamish to pursue

is to halt development on the floodplain (Herdman, 2015).

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However, Squamish has other plans for the future and intends to expand the community by

heavily developing the oceanfront area. This development is intended to be completed within 20 years

and will cost over 24 million dollars (District of Squamish, 2010). According to the projected flooding

trend outlined in this paper, this proposed oceanfront development will be unlivable due to perpetual

flooding within 200 years time. This allows for approximately 180 years of enjoyment if sea level rise

is not stopped or reversed, Squamish is also planning to develop downtown Squamish quite

substantially (District of Squamish, 2008), adding open spaces, public transportation, residential

homes, and commercial, industrial, and institutional facilities. Neither the proposed plan for the

Squamish Oceanfront nor the Squamish Downtown Neighbourhood plan make any mention of

potential flooding or submergence hazards.

Additional steps Squamish should take include a continued focus on building infrastructure

that can reduce the risk of flood damage, and development that can support the area as sea waters

continue to rise. There are two different avenues for flood protection infrastructure. One avenue

includes non-structural or soft-armouring techniques (Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer, 2013).

This form of flood protection can include building beaches or dunes that closely mimic the natural

environment, or even rehabilitate beaches and estuaries that are already established. By recreating or

encouraging environments that resemble nature, these structures provide an adaptive buffer against

storm surges, wind, sediment, and sea level rise.

Alternatively, there are structural methods that can be used to protect against flood damage.

These techniques include building dikes or seawalls that implement infrastructure that structurally

armours the coastline against advancing waters (Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer, 2013).

At its most effective, both non-structural and structural techniques are used to protect against

flooding.

There are also techniques that can be used to diminish the risk of flood damage that are not

infrastructure related. These are planning, regulatory, and restriction tools. These methods include

policy or regulation that mitigates the risk of flood damage through actions such as halting
 15

development on floodplains or at-risk areas, creating zoning by-laws such that basement buildings

have no chance at being affected by flooding, and implementing regulations to reduce damage to the

natural environment (Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer, 2013).

For Squamish, all of these techniques should be pursued. Squamish has undergone 12 major

floods over the last 80 years, and our study indicates that they should prepare for more, even more

dramatic flooding (Squamish Public Library, 2017).

With this in mind, none of the strategies outlined above will be effective in the long-term if

Squamish does not prepare itself to be adaptable. Squamish should be adapting through pure

engineering, through a change in human behaviour reflected in changed zoning bylaws surrounding

urban sprawl allowances, or through a combination of both strategies. Currently, Squamish is

implementing the engineering flavour of mitigation through the use of levees. Additionally, there is

policy in place restricting the sprawl of Squamish to its current area until the population grows to a

certain amount.

4.1 Sensitivity Analysis

After having outlined various mitigation techniques to safeguard Squamish from flooding and

submersion, Figure 6 demonstrates the time acquired by structural modifications of different

importance and height.

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Fig. 6 - The structural modifications that could be implemented for Squamish would enable the town

to profit from more time according to how much higher the modifications will impact the flooding and

submersion of the reference point.

Limitations of the data and variables

Taking into account storm surge, sea level rise, river flooding, Garibaldi Lake flood, local tsunamis,

dam failure at Daisy Lake, and Mamquam and Squamish River flooding, we have determined that

Squamish has a 40% chance of being flooded by the year 2220. The probability increases to 100%,

meaning submersion by the year 2230. We cannot stress enough that these predictions are based on

data primarily sourced from the IPCC. Calculations from the IPCC err predominantly on the

conservative side.

The river data was gathered from the Squamish Public Library because wateroffice data was

unreliable. This means it may not be entirely accurate because only the most severe floods were

documented on the library website. The IPCC numbers used in this study are predicted only over 100

years and we used these numbers to predict up to 1000 years with Oracles Crystal Ball software. This

limits the accuracy of the numbers we extrapolated. As there was not complete data available for each

required variable, the probabilities of river floods were approximated based on past trends and
 17

comparable probabilities. A future study should integrate raw, reliable data from the probabilistic

variables into our model to gain a more accurate idea of when Squamish will be submerged.

The subsidence measurement is very unreliable because the source stated the only benchmark

used for measuring was attached to a building foundation which would have likely experienced

settling additional to the subsidence (IFHMP, 2015).

Storm surges are likely to increase due to greater atmospheric pressure differentials caused by

climate change. This increase in storm surge is extremely difficult to account for and as such it is not

included in the scope of this study. If it were included it would decrease the amount of time before

Squamish is submerged, meaning it is one of many variables unaccounted for which would advance

the predictions made in this study.

Although useful, the mean, standard deviation, and variance could not be included for the

variables because the source of the data output raw probabilities without a way to determine these

statistical measures.

All elevations were measured using an online elevation map of Squamish. We believe this is

not as precise as using a professional GPS would be, so a land surveyor should be consulted to

provide precise elevation data for future studies.

The use of a ten year time step is a benefit as well as a limitation. Whilst it is a practical

number to work with and allows for an easier use and manipulation of the data a ten year time step

does not enable the study to go into the individual years during which flooding becomes permanent

and is instead submersion. The ten year time step also does not allow for the tidal impact to be

highlighted on the flooding and submersion distinction. Additionally, the ten year time step allows for

the rounding of when the deterministic flooding is to occur. The decadal timescale results in there

being a thirty year interval for every meter rise of the sea level, and therefore, does not provide a

precise insight into the submersion of Squamish.

The fact that the increase in probability of flooding is linear is an approximation and in itself

imprecise. The low frequency impact events are taken as constant probabilities and not replicated over
 18

the following decades as if they have not occurred which is improbable. This could be taken into

account in a further study whereby the probability changes of low frequency high impact events are

adapted and reflected in the timeline of when Squamish is to be submerged.

The findings of this study are important for Squamish to consider because they carry

economic implications. For instance, we believe continuing to build in the floodplain is an

irresponsible economic decision since the impending flooding will render new developments useless.

Not only are there economic costs, but there are social ones. The population of Squamish has been

steadily growing. Displacement of an undoubtedly much larger population years down the road will

mean the displacement of an entire community and its roots.

Science and Decision Making

Science does not exist in a vacuum. We cannot discount the variety of interests held by

different decision makers when it comes to making decisions about the future. An excellent example

was conveyed during David Roulstons talk when he discussed his teams original recommendation

that no rezoning and no further development be allowed for the majority of the Squamish

municipality. This recommendation was rejected because it did not align with the development

interests of decision makers interest. In this instance, collecting data, creating models, and

developing an understanding of the flood hazard in Squamish was not enough to convince the

Squamish Council to implement the originally suggested solution.

So what is the role of a scientist when their work informs them that a certain set of actions

should be taken, a set of actions that will affect the future livelihood of an entire community, and

these are not taken into account?

The results of our study suggest that an ambitious plan is necessary for Squamish to mitigate

flood damage between now and the year 2230. Even if progressive action is taken to protect Squamish

from sea-level rise, we are skeptical that the low-lying delta area that constitutes much of Squamish

will continue to be safe for occupancy and development in the future. While it is a step in the right
 19

direction, the course of action currently being outlined by decision makers for the Squamish

Municipality seems to fall short of the actions necessary to effectively mitigate hazardous floods over

the coming centuries.

As scientists, we believe the best course of action we can take as individuals is to simply

continue doing science. Though our findings may not be incorporated in a time effective manner,

continuing to produce useful data that can inform future decisions is not a trivial act. By refining our

data, reexamining our evidence, and continuing to offer informed recommendations, science offers a

path for future decision makers to follow when the trade-offs that inform their decisions change. In

this way, we hope that our work is able to serve as a contribution to the growing body of literature on

climate change mitigation for the Squamish community.

Recommendations

The results of this study can be utilized to drive forwards various distinct routes of action in

order to prevent flooding and submersion in Squamish. Different avenues that can be employed

include, but are not limited to: building additional structural defenses and maintaining those that are

already in place, implementing effective land use policy to accommodate for flooding events, and

relocating landowners to flood safe zones such as the Garibaldi Highlands (Kerr Wood Leidal, 2016).

Structural Defenses

Structural modifications consist of preventive measures through building physical structures

that protect land, buildings and other environments from flood hazards (Kerr Wood Leidal, 2016).

Structural defenses include dikes, bioengineered bank protection, flood dams, walls, and gates. These

ensure the diversion, or at least containment, of a flooding event to mitigate the floods impact on the

community in terms of its financial and social impact. In the context of Squamish, there has already

been twelve major flooding events in the past eighty years which has led the municipality to

investigate and develop flood management strategies (Squamish Public Archives, 2017). The present
 20

preventive measures in place to mitigate flood risk include a dike along the Squamish River from the

tidewater at Howe Sound to Cheekeye Fan whilst splitting to the right over along the Mamquam River

(Kerr Wood Leidal, 2016).

The 2016 draft of the Squamish Integrated Flood Hazard Management Plan aims at

providing insights into the necessary developments of structural defenses such as additional dikes in

high-risk areas (Kerr Wood Leidal, 2016). The main concern at hand with the provisions included in

this report is that it takes into account solely conservative estimates of water level rises and changes

induced by climate change. Whilst the Squamish Integrated Flood Hazard Management Plan

(IFHMP) provides for a 2 m sea level increase by 2200, our study demonstrates a 2.55 m increase

(Kerr Wood Leidal, 2016). In effect, we can observe the element of conservatism displayed by the

IFHMP and thus requires the question of what data should be used in order to ensure effective

planning.

The future structural defenses for Squamish that are most necessary, according to the IFHMP,

are river and sea dikes that would prevent possible flooding events that may occur over the next 200

years. These anticipated dikes are estimated to be built on average at a 3.8 m height above current sea

levels and would result in a 40$ million cost (personal communication David Roulston, 2017).

Policy for Development

In conjunction to district-specific development and mitigation infrastructure, there are

additional policies in place for developments within potential flood zones. The intersection between

scientific research and municipalities, where various stakeholders are involved, leads to conflicting

interests. The development and assertion of strict flood zones within the Squamish floodplain by

engineers such as David Roulston had to be adapted to the varying interests of developers who highly

value the growth of Squamish (personal communication David Roulston, 2017). Having conceded

several of strict flood zones into potential flood zones, where conditions are imposed to the

development projects, a compromise is struck.

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The conditions for building in the potential flood zones include, but are not limited to: flood

modelling scenarios and modelling, land elevation, dike construction on the private portion of the

land, and construction using flood resistant materials. These preventive measures and conditions are

contentious in their effectiveness and an illusion of safety for investors. The investors assume that the

buildings and area must be flood safe zones due to the Squamish Councils approval for development.

However, there is the possibility that the scientists original recommendations, which were much

stricter, may not have allowed for this site specific development (personal communication David

Roulston, 2017).

Relocation of the landowners to a flood safe zone

Almost the entirety of downtown Squamish and its oceanfront is in danger of flooding, with

that danger increasing every year. However, accommodations must be made that satisfy the Squamish

population, as it is not plausible to kick landowners out of their homes. A more realistic approach

could be to require developers to rebuild in new areas once infrastructure in high-risk areas reach the

end of their life cycle. This is the retreat approach outlined in the Squamish River Flood Risk

Mitigation Options Report.

Understanding the future potential of flooding in Squamish and the effects that it will have on

the district is a multi-faceted problem requiring engineers, scientists, urban planners, policy makers,

and others. Moreover, understanding and working towards solving this problem requires

communication between scientists who explore the problem, and policy makers who implement

strategies to solve it. Effective scientific communication needs to be accessible to a broad audience.

Vital to communicating scientific understanding is avoiding jargon and scientific language that is not

easily accessible to those without a background in science (Likens, 2010).

Conclusion
 22

The reference point we examined in Squamish, at a 4m height, is to be deterministically submerged by

2230.

Literature Cited

Arlington Group Planning and Architecture Inc. (2013). Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer: A toolkit

to build adaptive capacity on Canada's south coasts. Retrieved from

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Appendix A
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Fig. 1 - Table illustrating the different scenarios of IPCC estimates of sea level increases over the

next century until 2100 (IPCC, 2013)

Fig. 2 - Extrapolation of the sea level rise through Crystal Ball from IPCC RCP 8.5 data (IPCC,

2013)
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Fig. 3

Fig. 4 - Timeline of historic flooding and flood management in Squamish, BC (IFHMP, 2014).