Daily

.
Friday, EU unemployment and US GDP are on tap. More important, however, are perceptions of growth tied to
macro themes and earnings. Thin trading means the price action will be more chaotic than usual for DAX. ("Crack
Outlook whore" comes to mind. Apologies to those of you with more refined sensibilities than I.) This the end of the first
30 July 2010 month of Q3, so the USD could realize some flow-driven gains by tomorrow's close.

Calendar GMT Ctry Event Mkt Risk Exp Prev Remarks

Friday 0130 AU Private sector credit Jun YoY Ccy Med 3.1 2.7 AUDUSD intraday
* 0900 EU EZ unemployment rate Jul YoY C/E Med 10 10 Euro, ESX, DAX risk barometer (2 day)
* EU EZ consumer price index est. Jul YoY C/E Med 1.7 1.4 Euro, ESX, DAX risk barometer (2 day)
CH KOF Swiss leading indicator Jul Ccy Med 2.3 2.25 USDCHF intraday
1230 CA Gross domestic product May MoM Ccy Med 0.2 0.0 USDCAD risk barometer (2 day)
* US Gross domestic product Q2 A C/E High 2.5 2.7 Across the board (3 day)
* US Personal consumption Q2 A Equ Med 2.4 3.0 S&P risk barometer (2 day)

Thursday's theme: Selling on good news. Although the bias for Thursday was down, the extent of the sell-off in the US session
came as a surprise. Earnings in Europe provided initial impetus for a push up to the high projection of 6250. At first, I was
concerned at the early move to 6230 since my bias was down. Ultimately, growth, debt, and a cooling Chinese economy weighed,
with money managers in the process of shoring up EOM numbers. I'm sure some paring of positions ahead of the US GDP report
(later this morning) also took place. By contrast, the euro largely held onto its gains, erasing options barriers and stops early in UK
trading and stubbornly sitting tight above 1.3050 as equity indices dropped. I'm not sure what followed what, but early in US
trading until mid-morning, crude appeared to support the euro and the S&P appeared to lead DAX. Going into Friday, I'll be
watching range projections and volume nodes skeptically -- trading is a bit thin, with 3 day average volume at 83% of ten day
average volume.

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.
 DAX 30min
Confirmation of Wednesday's bearish close. Bias still to the
downside, but the extent of today's drop surprised. With
summer comes thin markets. Something to be aware of.
Primary range: 110
Alternate range: 81
High Extreme: 6259
High primary: 6220-30
Low primary: 6050-40
HVN Today's range resistance
Low Extreme: 6000

As always, keep in mind that range projections are

guidelines -- asking where the market will likely try to go HVN
when long and when short, and how much friction is
involved in getting there.

HVN

HVN

Today's range support

Comments and insults are welcome. See contact info below.

Interested in contributing to this letter? Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, range studies
Want to exchange ideas? Have a suggestion? http://www.thelonelytraderv2.wordpress.com
jay@lonelytrader.com
Please contact --> 760-444-0307

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.