February 6, 2015

Global Markets Minesweeper

International Markets Analysis
FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION

Eurozone initial estimate of 4th quarter GDP, Bank of England inflation report and US University of Michigan
consumer confidence index, appear as the main economic data announcements of the following week. G20
finance ministers and Central Bank governors will meet (9/2) for a two-day summit. EU Leaders Summit is on
February 12.

In the Eurozone, GDP (13/2) has probably risen on an annualized quarterly basis in Q4 2014 by 0.2% (Bloomberg poll
median estimate) and on yearly basis by 0.8%. Even though, Eurozone economic growth is slow, it appears that the
economy is gradually benefited by expansionary monetary policy and low yields.

EUROZONE:GDPQoQchange(20042014)
1,5

0,5

0,5

1,5

2,5 GDPQoQ

3
9/04

3/05
6/05
9/05

3/06
6/06
9/06

3/07
6/07
9/07

3/08
6/08
9/08

3/09
6/09
9/09

3/10
6/10
9/10

3/11
6/11
9/11

3/12
6/12
9/12

3/13
6/13
9/13

3/14
6/14
9/14
12/04

12/05

12/06

12/07

12/08

12/09

12/10

12/11

12/12

12/13

Source: Bloomberg

Informal Eurogroup meeting will most probably take place on February 11 and EU Leaders Summit is scheduled for
February 12. Greeces call for easier financing terms is among the topics.

In Germany, the final estimate of CPI for January (12/2) will most probably indicate that deflationary conditions are
building up.

US University of Michigan consumer confidence index for February will be released on February 13.

In the UK, industrial production (10/2) may have risen in December both on a monthly and yearly basis, which is
consistent with continued economic growth. Bank of England periodic economic report (Inflation report) will be released
on February 12.

In Japan, eco watchers current and outlook indices (9/2) may have both risen in January versus the prior month.

International Markets Analysis

t. +30 210 326 8265, marketanalysis@alpha.gr
International Markets Analysis

Global Markets Minesweeper

Event Risk Calendar, 9-13 February 2015

Monday 9/2
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
9/2 1:50 JN BoP Current Account Balance Dec 355.8B 433.0B
9/2 1:50 JN BoP Current Account Adjusted Dec 940.8B 914.5B
9/2 1:50 JN Trade Balance BoP Basis Dec -472.0B -636.8B
9/2 1:50 JN Bank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) Jan 2.8% 2.7%
9/2 7:00 JN Consumer Confidence Index Jan 39.3 38.8
9/2 8:00 JN Eco Watchers Survey Current Jan 45.8 45.2
9/2 8:00 JN Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Jan 47.5 46.7
9/2 9:00 GE Trade Balance (Euro) Dec 15.5B 17.9B
9/2 9:00 GE Current Account Balance (Euro) Dec -- 18.6B
9/2 9:30 FR Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Jan -- 96
9/2 11:30 EC Sentix Investor Confidence Feb 3.0 0.9

Auctions GE Germany to sell EUR2 Bln 182-Day Bills (12:30)

Eco Event TR G-20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Istanbul (to 10 Feb.)
US German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits U.S. President Barack Obama

Tuesday 10/2
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
10/2 1:50 JN Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) Dec 0.0% 0.2%
10/2 1:50 JN Money Stock M2 (YoY) Jan 3.6% 3.6%
10/2 1:50 JN Money Stock M3 (YoY) Jan 2.9% 2.9%
10/2 8:45 SZ Unemployment Rate SA Jan 3.2% 3.2%
10/2 10:15 SZ CPI (MoM) Jan -0.6% -0.5%
10/2 10:15 SZ CPI (YoY) Jan -0.6% -0.3%
10/2 11:00 IT Industrial Production (MoM) Dec 0.1% 0.3%
10/2 11:00 IT Industrial Production WDA (YoY) Dec -0.7% -1.8%
10/2 11:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM) Dec 0.1% -0.1%
10/2 11:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) Dec 0.8% 1.1%
10/2 11:30 UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) Dec 0.1% 0.7%
10/2 11:30 UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) Dec 2.1% 2.7%
10/2 16:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Jan 101.0 100.4
10/2 17:00 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) Dec 0.1% 0.8%
10/2 17:00 US Wholesale Trade Sales (MoM) Dec -- -0.3%
10/2 17:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Feb 51.5 51.5
10/2 17:00 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Jan -- 0.6%

Auctions GE Germany to sell EUR1 Bln 1.75% I/L 2020 Bonds (12:30)

2 Global Markets Minesweeper

International Markets Analysis

US U.S. to sell USD24 Bln 3-Year Notes (20:00)

Eco Event EC ECB Chief Economist Praet and Bank of Portugal Governor Costa speak (11:00)
US IMF chief economist Blanchard speaks about the global economic outlook

Wednesday 11/2
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/2 9:45 FR Current Account Balance (Euro) Dec -- 0.2B
11/2 14:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Feb 6 -- 1.3%
11/2 21:00 US Monthly Budget Statement Jan -$2.6B -$10.2B

Japan Markets Closed (National Foundation Day)

Auctions GR Greece to sell 13-Week Bills (12:00)

UK U.K. to sell GBP1.75 Bln 3.5% 2045 Bonds (12:30)
GE Germany to sell EUR5 Bln 2017 Bonds (12:30)
US U.S. to sell USD24 Bln 10-Year Notes (20:00)

Eco Event EC Informal Eurogroup meeting

Thursday 12/2
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
12/2 1:50 JN PPI (MoM) Jan -0.6% -0.4%
12/2 1:50 JN PPI (YoY) Jan 1.1% 1.9%
12/2 1:50 JN Machine Orders (MoM) Dec 2.3% 1.3%
12/2 1:50 JN Machine Orders (YoY) Dec 5.8% -14.6%
12/2 2:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Jan 10% 11%
12/2 8:00 JN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) Jan P -- 33.9%
12/2 9:00 GE CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) Jan F -1.3% -1.3%
12/2 9:00 GE CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) Jan F -0.5% -0.5%
12/2 12:00 EC Industrial Production SA (MoM) Dec 0.3% 0.2%
12/2 12:00 EC Industrial Production WDA (YoY) Dec 0.4% -0.4%
12/2 15:30 US Retail Sales Advance (MoM) Jan -0.4% -0.9%
12/2 15:30 US Retail Sales Ex Auto (MoM) Jan -0.4% -1.0%
12/2 15:30 US Retail Sales Control Group Jan 0.5% -0.4%
12/2 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Feb 7 -- 278K
12/2 15:30 US Continuing Claims Jan 31 -- 2400K
12/2 17:00 US Business Inventories Dec 0.2% 0.2%

Auctions IT Italy to sell Bonds (12:00)

US U.S. to sell USD16 Bln 30-Year Bonds (20:00)

Eco Event UK Bank of England Inflation Report (12:30)

Global Markets Minesweeper 3

 International Markets Analysis

UK ECB Executive Board member Praet delivers the keynote speech

EC EU Leaders hold summit

Friday 13/2
Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
13/2 8:30 FR GDP (YoY) 4Q P -- 0.4%
13/2 8:30 FR GDP (QoQ) 4Q P -- 0.3%
13/2 9:00 GE GDP SA (QoQ) 4Q P 0.2% 0.1%
13/2 9:00 GE GDP WDA (YoY) 4Q P 1.0% 1.2%
13/2 9:45 FR Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 4Q P -- -0.3%
13/2 9:45 FR Wages (QoQ) 4Q P -- 0.2%
13/2 10:15 SZ Producer & Import Prices (MoM) Jan -0.7% -0.4%
13/2 10:15 SZ Producer & Import Prices (YoY) Jan -2.7% -2.1%
13/2 11:00 IT GDP WDA (QoQ) 4Q P -0.1% -0.1%
13/2 11:00 IT GDP WDA (YoY) 4Q P -0.5% -0.5%
13/2 11:30 IT General Government Debt Dec -- 2160.1B
13/2 11:30 UK Construction Output SA (MoM) Dec 2.5% -2.0%
13/2 11:30 UK Construction Output SA (YoY) Dec 5.0% 3.6%
13/2 12:00 EC Trade Balance SA (Euro) Dec -- 20.0B
13/2 12:00 EC GDP SA (QoQ) 4Q A 0.2% 0.2%
13/2 12:00 EC GDP SA (YoY) 4Q A 0.8% 0.8%
13/2 12:00 GR GDP (QoQ) 4Q A -- 0.7%
13/2 12:00 GR GDP NSA (YoY) 4Q A -- 1.9%
13/2 15:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) Jan -3.2% -2.5%
13/2 15:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) Jan -- -5.5%
13/2 17:00 US U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb P 98.1 98.1

Auctions JN Japan to sell 5-Year Bonds (05:45)

Eco Event EC ECB Vice President Constancio delivers the keynote speech
EC Sovereign rating updates: Austria (Fitch), Ireland (Fitch) & Italy (Moody's)

International Markets Analysis www.alpha.gr +30 210 326 8265 marketanalysis@alpha.gr

Panos Remoundos panos.remoundos@alpha.gr
Maria Koutouzi maria.koutouzi@alpha.gr
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA ioannis.kouravelos@alpha.gr
Konstantinos Anathreptakis konstantinos.anathreptakis@alpha.gr
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