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Renewable Energy 61 (2014) 96e101

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Renewable Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Analysis of alternative policy instruments to promote electric


vehicles in Austria
V. Gass*, J. Schmidt, E. Schmid
Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences,
Feistmantelstrasse 4, A-1180 Vienna, Austria

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The large amount of CO2 emissions and of fossil fuel consumption caused by the transportation sector
Received 9 December 2011 makes the sector central for attaining the EU energy and climate policy targets. Consequently, new
Accepted 6 August 2012 propulsion systems are developed in the automotive industry, which currently have cost disadvantages
Available online 6 September 2012
compared to conventional internal combustion engines (ICE). The article provides a review on support
measures for electric vehicles (EV), which have been currently implemented within the European
Keywords:
Union. In a case study analysis for Austria, we analyze different policy instruments including a CO2
Electric vehicles
tax aiming to support the introduction of electric vehicles in Austria. We have calculated and compared
Total cost of ownership (TCO)
Fiscal policy instruments
total costs of ownership (TCO), which includes all costs associated with the ownership of an automobile
Break-even including costs of purchasing, operating and maintaining, charges and taxes as well as costs of recycling
and disposal. A survey on main specications of electric vehicles has been conducted among
the main automobile manufacturers and importers in Austria. Based on this survey, TCO have
been calculated dynamically from 2011 to 2020 for a business as usual (BAU) scenario considering
currently implemented taxes and subsidies for ICE and electric vehicle systems. Three alternative policy
support measures have been assessed to promote EV until 2015. Results show that EV will be cost-
competitive with ICE by the year 2012/2013 if projected production volumes and thus economies of
scale are reached. Further, we conclude that an up-front price support seems to be favorable over
taxation systems.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction network would be required to overcome the limited driving range


barrier. However, economic viability and a successful introduction
Currently, 98% of the transportation sector in the EU depends on of alternative propulsion systems will mainly depend on economic
fossil fuels. The sector is responsible for approximately 21% of the aspects such as relative average costs in comparison to internal
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with more than half of combustion engines (ICE).
the emissions produced by passenger cars [1]. The EU Directive Therefore, the gap between the total cost of ownership (TCO) of
(2009/33/EC) on the promotion of clean and energy efcient alternative transportation systems and of ICE should be temporarily
road transport vehicles has been released to foster a broad mar- closed by appropriate policy interventions to promote environ-
ket penetration of environmentally friendly vehicles in order to mentally friendly vehicles. Current research regarding the
decarbonize the transportation sector and to reduce oil dependency. economic viability of electric vehicles has mainly focused on life-
Several new propulsion systems such as plug-in hybrids, range cycle cost analysis [3e5]. Thiel et al. [3]compared the well-to-wheel
extenders as well as electric vehicles (EV) have emerged and CO2 emissions, costs and CO2 abatement costs of passenger light
entered the market or are ready to enter the market in the near duty vehicles including gasoline vehicles, diesel vehicles, diesel
future [2]. However, the cost disadvantages of the newly emerging hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles. A
propulsion systems as well as their limited driving range have to be static comparison has been conducted for the years 2010, 2020 and
overcome in order to achieve a shift in the transportation sector. 2030 under a new energy policy scenario for Europe. They conclude
Due to the limited energy density of batteries, EV have currently that electric vehicles can clearly contribute to a decarbonization of
a limited driving range of approximately 160 km. A dense charging the transportation system if renewable electricity is used. Accord-
ing to [3], adequate policy instruments are necessary to overcome
* Corresponding author. Tel.: 43 1 47654x3594; fax: 43 1 47654x3692. the current cost disadvantages of electric vehicles to attain appro-
E-mail address: viktoria.gass@boku.ac.at (V. Gass). priate payback periods.

0960-1481/$ e see front matter 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.08.012
V. Gass et al. / Renewable Energy 61 (2014) 96e101 97

Ogden et al. [4] conducted an analysis of the societal lifecycle - Registration or purchase taxes
cost of transportation including the purchase price, fuel costs,
externality costs of securing oil supply and damage costs for Registration or purchase taxes are an up-front cost and can
emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases which are have a strong impact on directing buying decisions to low
calculated over the full fuel cycle. carbon vehicles, if costs are differentiated with regard to the
Thomas [5] developed a dynamic computer simulation model specic CO2 emissions of the vehicles. In France, a bonus/malus
that compares the societal benets of replacing conventional system has been introduced whereby vehicles above certain
gasoline cars with vehicles that are partially electried, CO2 emission thresholds have to pay a malus and vehicles under
including hybrid electric vehicles. He concludes that electric the threshold receive a bonus. Such a system may increase the
vehicles in combination with hybrids, plug-in hybrids and bio- acceptability of policy makers as well as of consumers, because
fuels will be necessary to achieve an 80% reduction in green- it can be designed in a revenue neutral manner [13].
house gas emissions below 1990 levels by simultaneously The EU proposal for a Council Directive [14] with the aim of
cutting dependence on imported oil and eliminating nearly all decarbonizing the transportation sector suggests implement-
controllable urban air pollution from the light duty vehicle eet. ing reforms in the vehicle registration taxes and annual
However, to increase market shares, market barriers have to be circulation taxes. It is stated that scal measures provide
overcome. Therefore, the consumer perspective and thus the a strong incentive value, for example, by encouraging the rapid
choice of cost-effective policy instruments should be the focus of renewal of the car eet and inuencing consumers behavior
further research. toward more fuel-efcient passenger cars.
The aim of the article is to analyze different policy instruments
by comparing total cost of ownership (TCO) of EV and ICE in Austria. - Circulation or motor taxes
TCO are calculated dynamically from 2011 to 2020 for a business as
usual (BAU) scenario considering currently implemented taxes and The circulation tax usually tied to the engine power, cylinder
subsidies for ICE and EV. In contrast to lifecycle cost analysis of capacity or fuel consumption is a monthly or annual paid tax.
alternative propulsion systems, our analysis focuses mainly on the According to [13], circulation or motor taxes have a limited
total cost of ownership and places the consumer perspective in the effect on the purchase decision as they are annual or monthly
center of the analysis, because with the exemption of early adopters charges, implying that consumers place much more attention to
consumers are usually not willing to accept the current cost the up-front purchase price than to annual or monthly charges.
differential between ICE and EV. Surveys conducted among Cali- Although they are considered to be politically acceptable, their
fornian households found that e.g. the present value of fuel savings impact to promote EV is rather low as the cost range of such
is rarely considered in the purchase decision of a new vehicle [6]. If measures is limited [14].
consumers consider fuel economy when purchasing a vehicle,
surveys conducted by [7] and [8] indicate that consumers expect - Fuel taxes
vehicle efciency improvements to pay for themselves in the rst
three years or less. As indicated by the surveys and argued by [9] Fuel taxes are considered to be an effective regulatory
main barriers toward a transition to an alternative transportation instrument to (i) limit energy consumption in road transport
system are not technical ones but socio-economic ones. Therefore [15,16] (ii) incentivize consumers to buy more energy efcient
the political framework can have considerable impact on the cars, and (iii) change driving patterns.
vehicle characteristics and fuel efciency [10] as well as on the Table 1 provides an overview of the currently implemented
driving distance by affecting the cost of transport and as such support measures [13,15e17].
inuencing consumer behavior and spreading efcient propulsion
technologies [11]. 3. Status quo: policy instruments implemented for passenger
The article is structured as follows. Section 2 provides an over- cars in Austria
view of the support schemes currently launched in the EU-15.
Section 3 gives an overview of currently implemented taxes on Currently there are three main taxation instruments inuencing
transportation in Austria. Section 4 presents the data and meth- the cost of passenger car transport in Austria [14]: a purchase tax
odology. An analysis on different policy support instruments to which is basically an up-front fuel consumption tax called Norm-
equalize the TCO of EV and ICE in Austria is shown in Section 5. verbrauchsabgabe (NoVA), an engine related vehicle tax (motor-
Section 6 presents a sensitivity analysis on the main model bezogene Versicherungssteuer), and a fuel tax.
parameters and Section 7 concludes. The fuel consumption tax has to be paid upon rst registration
of the car in the country. The tax is levied as a percentage of the
2. Implemented support schemes for EV in the EU-15 purchase price and is calculated based on the fuel consumption of
the car. A bonus/malus system is implemented with respect to the
Many EU member states have introduced national targets for CO2 emission of a car. Cars with a CO2 emission above the threshold
the EV driving stock, the expansion of charging infrastructure, or of 160 g/km have to additionally pay 25 EUR/g. EV receive currently
production targets of electric vehicles [12]. Most EU member a bonus of EUR 500. Additionally, the consumer has to pay 20% VAT
states overcome the cost disadvantage of alternative vehicles by on the total purchase price including the fuel consumption tax.
introducing policy instruments such as an up-front price The engine related tax, also called circulation tax, is paid
support in order to increase the affordability of electric vehicles according to the insurance payment, monthly, semi-annual or
by reducing the marginal capital cost, which is considered as annual. The amount of the engine related tax depends on the
one of the key barriers for consumers [13]. Within the EU-15, engine power of the car. Additionally, the consumer has to pay 11%
passenger cars have mainly been the target of a tax reform insurance tax on the engine related tax. EV are currently exempt
that takes into account the CO2 emissions of vehicles. from the engine related tax in Austria.
Policy instruments that are currently implemented in order to The fuel tax called Minerallsteuer (MST) amounts for gasoline
stimulate the up-take of alternative propulsion systems consist vehicles to 0.447 EUR/l and for diesel to 0.347 EUR/l. Currently,
of [13]: biofuels and compressed natural gas are exempt from fuel taxes.
98 V. Gass et al. / Renewable Energy 61 (2014) 96e101

Table 1 Table 2
Policy instruments to supporting EV in the EU-15. Technical specications.

Country Economic instruments for the support of EV VW Golf Nissan Mitsubishi


Austria Exemption from fuel consumption tax Trendline Leaf i - Miev
Exemption from monthly vehicle tax Technology
Up-front purchase price bonus of EUR 500 ICE engine displacement (l) 1.6 e e
Belgium Purchasers of electric cars receive a personal Turbocharger (yes/no) yes e e
income tax reduction of 30% of the purchase price (with a PT power (kW) 77 e e
maximum of EUR 9000) Electric motor power (kW) e 80 49
Finland Exemption of fuel tax Battery capacity (kWh) e 24 16
Italy A tax incentive of EUR 800 and a two year exemption Energy source Diesel Electricity Electricity
from annual circulation tax is granted for the Performance
purchase of an EV. Weight (kg) 1318 1545 1110
Denmark Exemption from registration tax and annual circulation Acceleration 0e100 km/h (in s) 11.3 e e
tax. Further EV qualify for free parking Top speed (km/h) 189 140 130
Germany EV exempt from the annual road tax for a period of ve Fuel consumption (l/100 km) 4.1 e e
years from the date of the rst registration Electricity consumption (kWh/100 km) e 0.150 0.150
Spain Various regional governments grant tax incentives for the Tailpipe CO2 emissions (g/km) 107 e e
purchase of alternative fuel vehicles including EV e approx. Costs
EUR 6000 Vehicle incl. VAT and NoVA (EUR) 27,601 36,240 35,900
France BonuseMalus System; New Cars with CO2 emissions below NoVA (fuel consumption tax 4% 0% 0%
125 g/km receive a premium. EV receive currently EUR 5000 in % of purchase price)
Greece EV exempt from registration tax. If engine capacity below Battery cost (EUR/kWh) e 500 500
1929 cc, exemption from road tax. Further EV are even Battery cost (EUR) e 12,000 8000
allowed to drive in Athens when parts of the city are Rent battery (EUR/km) e e e
restricted to ICE to reduce trafc congestion. Loss in value p.a. 22.5% 33% 33%
Ireland EV exempt from registration tax e approx. EUR 2500. Maintenance cost (EUR/100 km) 5.00 2.9 2.9
The approx. EUR 6400 reduction from the registration tax
Netherlands
Portugal Exemption from registration tax
Sweden Exemption from annual road tax for a period resulting performance and cost gures of EV and ICE for which the
of 5 years upon rst registration TCO have been calculated.
United Exemption from annual road tax The analysis considers (i) further technical improvements for
Kingdom ICE as well as (ii) cost reductions of EV through learning effects. Fuel
Ireland Exemption from registration tax
Luxemburg Annual circulation taxes based on CO2 emissions
consumption rate of ICE is continuously improving in order to meet
the market demand for more fuel efcient vehicles and with
respect to the EUs average emission target of passenger cars of
Additionally, the consumer has to pay 20% VAT on the diesel and 130 g/km in 2015. Estimated fuel consumption efciency
gasoline price, respectively. improvement rates differ strongly in literature ranging from 7% in
the period 2010 to 2030 [14] to 15% in the period 2010 to 2020
[3,21]. [22] came to the conclusion that between 4% and 7% ef-
4. Data and methodology
ciency improvements seem possible until 2015. In our calculation,
we made the assumption that ICE would have a 10% better energy
Total cost of ownership (TCO) includes all costs arising with the
efciency in 2020 than in 2011, however, a sensitivity analysis on
ownership of an automobile including costs of purchasing, oper-
this parameter has been conducted in Section 6.
ating and maintaining, charges and taxes as well as costs of recy-
Regarding EV, an assumption of no efciency improvements has
cling and disposal over a specied timeframe under consideration
been made in our analysis. [22] assumed efciency improvements
of opportunity costs. TCO is dened as following:
for EV of 8.1% for the period 2010 to 2030, whereas [3] assumed no
X
N efciency improvements as EV already feature all near-term
TCO I ct 1 rt R1 rN ; (1) conceivable efciency advances.
t1 Cost reductions have been considered with respect to battery
where I represents the purchase price, ct maintenance and oper- performance. The assumed learning rate for battery cost reductions
ating costs, r the discount factor and R the resale price. Maintenance amounts to 9% per annum. Currently, battery costs amount to
and operating costs include infrastructure charges, insurance, fuel approximately 600 EUR/kWh [3,16] and are expected to decline to
consumption tax, and the engine related vehicle tax. TCO have been approximately 210 EUR/kWh in 2020. However, estimates on
calculated annually for the period 2011 until 2020 considering an battery costs range in literature between EUR 500 and EUR 800 in
ownership period of 5 years and an annual mileage of 15.000 km 2010 and between EUR 180 and EUR 300 in the period 2011 to 2020.
representing the annual Austrian average mileage [18]. It represents an average cost reduction of approximately 60% over
TCO have been calculated for limited vehicle options based on the period 2011 to 2020 which results in an annual learning rate of
a survey conducted with the main automobile manufacturers and about 9% [3,13,14,16,22e24]. Projected production volumes are re-
importers in Austria. The survey includes data on technical speci- ected in the assumed learning rate and have not been separately
cations and costs. The EV included in the analysis are either calculated. Consequently, price reductions resulting from an
already available for sale in Austria or will be in the near future [19]. increase in production volume are already reected in the calcu-
The survey has been conducted with the automotive representative lation of the TCO.
ofces of Nissan, Renault and Mitsubishi in Austria. The ICE have According to the survey, automobile manufacturers expect that
been chosen to be of similar size and technical specications. They the battery of EV needs to be replaced after approximately
represent the most often sold cars in the vehicle class. Technical 75,000 km. We assume that vehicles are sold after ve years, because
specications and performance assumptions for ICE have been no estimates on battery replacement costs are currently available.
derived from the respective automobile manufacturers [20]. Table 2 The percentage loss in value per annum as well as maintenance costs
provides an overview of the main specications as well as the main are estimates of manufacturers received in the survey.
V. Gass et al. / Renewable Energy 61 (2014) 96e101 99

44,000

42,000

40,000

TCO in EUR
38,000

36,000

34,000

32,000

30,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

VW Golf Trendline Nissan Leaf Mitsubishi i-Miev

Fig. 1. TCO for VW Golf Trendline, Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi i-Miev in the years 2011e2020.

The current gasoline price in Austria amounts to 1.38 EUR/l and decline in battery costs. Fig. 2 shows the composition of the TCO for
for diesel to 1.33 EUR/l including taxes and charges. The gasoline the representative cases. It is clearly shown that xed costs as the
and diesel prices are assumed to be consistent with the projected purchase price are higher for EV than the variable costs. Mainte-
oil prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 [25] representing nance costs of EV are much lower as they do not require tune-ups or
a compound annual growth rate of approx. 4.2% per annum. The oil changes. Additionally, EV do not have timing belts, water pumps,
electricity price for Austrian households amounts currently to 16.19 radiators, fuel injectors, or tailpipes to replace. Insurance costs are
ct/kWh including taxes and charges. The average projected increase much lower for EV as they are currently exempted from the
in the electricity price (EEX Phelix baseload futures) until 2016 monthly engine tied tax in Austria.
amounts to approximately 1.7% per annum. These price develop- The BAU scenario implies that EV will be competitive by the year
ments are linearly extrapolated to 2020. 2012/13. However, competitiveness will only take place if projected
volumes are produced to realize the necessary economies of scales.
5. Results Consequently, subsidies may be necessary to realize the projected
production volumes.
We analyze three scal policy scenarios, which consist of an (i)
up-front price support, a (ii) CO2-tax, and (iii) an increase in the fuel 5.2. Introducing an up-front price support
consumption tax for ICE, respectively. The minimum level of
incentive to make EV competitive from 2011 onwards is shown for As shown in Section 2, many countries have currently imple-
each policy instrument. mented or are considering to implement an up-front price support
(e.g. usually in the form of an exemption of the registration tax)
5.1. The business as usual (BAU) scenario for alternative propulsion systems. An up-front price support is
considered as an effective policy instrument, because consumers
As shown in Fig. 1, in the BAU scenario implying that no policy put much larger emphasis on the purchase price of a vehicle than
will be implemented, the Nissan Leaf and Mitsubishi i-Miev will be on the resulting maintenance and operating costs [15]. However, by
cost competitive with the VW Golf by the year 2012/13. The TCO of introducing an up-front price support for EV, the question arises of
ICE are increasing over time mainly due to rising fuel costs. The how much price support is necessary to incentivize sufcient
decrease in the TCO of EV is mainly attributed to the projected uptake of EV.

100%
11% 12%
90%
32% 6% 4%
80%
70%
60% 13%

50%
40% 83% 84%

30%
55%
20%
10%
0%
VW Golf Nissan Leaf Mitsubishi i-Miev

Investment cost Fuel costs Maintenence and insurance costs

Fig. 2. Composition of TCO for VW Golf Trendline, Nissan Leaf, and Mitsubishi i-Miev in 2011.
100 V. Gass et al. / Renewable Energy 61 (2014) 96e101

Table 3 the CO2 price on the EU Emission Allowances spot market trades at
Effect of a CO2 tax on diesel price. 15 EUR/t. Increasing the CO2 tax to up to 500 EUR/t has to be
VW Golf 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 considered as politically infeasible. Therefore, the introduction of
CO2 emission g/km 109 109 109 109 109 a CO2 tax as sole policy instrument to reduce the price differential
Fuel consumption l/ km 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 0.042 and to achieve a certain market penetration of EV is not considered
CO2 emission g/l 2595 2595 2595 2595 2595 viable.
CO2 tax ct/g 0.055 0.050 0.030 0.015 0.000
ct/l 142.7 129.8 77.9 38.9 0.0
ct/km 5,99 5,45 3,27 1,63 0 5.4. Increasing the fuel consumption tax (NoVA)

The necessary levels of the fuel consumption tax (NoVA) have


In our analysis, we have calculated alternative levels of upfront been analyzed as third policy option. Currently the NoVA amounts
price support to offset the gap between ICE and EV of TCO. These to approximately 4% of the purchase price for the cars under
are EUR 2000 in 2011, EUR 1500 in 2012, EUR 500 in 2013, and zero consideration. The NoVA would need to be set to 15% in 2011, 12%
in 2014 and 2015. The interviewed representatives of automotive in 2012, 7% in 2013, and zero in 2014 onwards in order to suf-
manufacturers have clearly stated that nal purchase prices are set ciently support EV. Similarly to the CO2 tax, an increase in the
under consideration of governmental support and that EV will be NoVA as only policy instrument is currently considered to be
available for sale only in countries with governmental support politically infeasible and it may cause adverse effects on the total
measures at a level that is considered sufcient from the perspec- automotive market.
tive of car manufacturers. The level of price support should be
adjusted annually to account for learning effects. High political and 6. Sensitivity analysis
public acceptability is attributed to an up-front price, however,
some moral hazard problem will remain [13]. The impact of the main model parameters on the break-even
between ICE and EV have been analyzed within a sensitivity anal-
5.3. Introducing a CO2 tax ysis. We have analyzed the impact of a change in

In a second scenario, we have analyzed the level of a CO2 tax for (i) the battery cost,
the transportation sector in order to promote EV. A CO2 tax is (ii) the learning rate of the battery,
generally considered to be an effective policy instrument from an (iii) the fuel price,
environmental point of view, because it contributes to lowering (iv) the fuel consumption rate,
CO2 emissions, cost-efciently. Furthermore, it generates revenues (v) the annual mileage, and
for the government that can be used to subsidize cleaner technol- (vi) the electricity price
ogies [26]. Besides reducing greenhouse gas emissions, a CO2 tax
has the capacity to reduce other external costs of ICE such as on the break-even. The results are shown in Fig. 3. The impacts
changing driving habits, reducing trafc congestions, and other are analyzed by parameter changes of 30%, 20%, 10% and 10%,
emissions such as ne dust [26]. 20%, 30%, respectively. As shown in Fig. 3, the break-even is very
A CO2 tax can be levied by directly taxing gasoline and diesel sensitive to the annual mileage and to the battery costs. If annual
corresponding to the carbon content of the respective fuel. This mileage is increased to 19,500 km or battery costs decreased to 480
implies that a CO2 tax would result in an increase in the respective EUR/kWh, EV would be already cost competitive today. Further
fuel price. The level of CO2 tax per tonne necessary to sufciently results show that if the underlying learning rate of the battery of 9%
promote EV declines from EUR 550 in 2011 to EUR 500 in 2012, EUR per annum is not achieved, the break-even shifts backwards to
300 in 2013, EUR 150 in 2014 and zero in 2015. Table 3 shows the 2014. The underlying annual increase in fuel prices and electricity
resulting increase in diesel prices for the respective ICE. prices as well as a change in the fuel consumption rate within the
In our analysis, the implementation of a CO2 tax becomes range investigated has no major impact on the break-even of the
effective, if the CO2 price is approximately 500 EUR/t. Currently, TCO between ICE and EV.

2017
Annual mileage
2016
Year of break-even

Battery cost
2015
Learning rate -
- Fuel price
2014 increase;
- Electricity
2013 price increase,
- Fuel
2012 consumption

2011
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
% change in input parameter

Battery Cost in EUR Fuel consumption rate in %


Learning rate - Battery in % Annual mileage in km
Fuel price increase in % Electricity price increase in %

Fig. 3. Results of the model parameter sensitivity analysis.


V. Gass et al. / Renewable Energy 61 (2014) 96e101 101

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