[Indonesian inbound Tourism: Where is the next Bali?
]
placed Indonesia is within the top five rank globally
In order to further develop the economic develop-
ment of the country, the cabinet of President Joko
Widodo has committed to develop ten new interna-
tionally-competitive tourism destinations, also known
as Ten New Bali referring to the success of tourism
in Bali Island. Bali has been well known as the most
popular destination in Indonesia and even globally.
The proposed Ten New Bali are located in 10 out
of countrys 34 provinces; i.e. 1) Lake Toba (in North
Sumatra Province), 2) Belitung Island (Bangka Beli-
tung), 3) Tanjung Lesung (Banten), 4) the Thousand
Islands (part of Jakarta Capital Region), 5) Borobudur
(Central Java), 6) Mount Bromo (East Java), 7) Man-
dalika in Lombok Island (West Nusa Tenggara/NTB),
8) Labuan Bajo (East Nusa Tenggara/NTT), 9) Wa-
katobi National Park (Southeast Sulawesi) and 10)
Morotai (North Maluku), see Figure 1. Three loca-
tions are classified as a Tourism Special Economic
Zone (KEK) and seven as National Tourism Strate-
gic Zone (KSPN). It is expected that they will attract
20 million foreign tourists, from 9 million tourists in
2015, and double contribution of tourism sector to In-
donesian GDP from around 9% to 15% by 2019
(MoTCE, 2016).
The initial success factor to increase tourism in In-
donesia, as Japan Association of Travel Agents Chair-
man said, is both to expand destinations and diver-
sify purposes.1 However, this does not mean tourism
attraction alone, as among the Ten New Bali some
are new and emerging tourism attractions and loca-
tions, while other has ongoing tourism activities and
the government envision upscaling. Only in terms at-
tractions, all of the Ten new Bali are appealing, rep-
resenting the concept of destinations expansions and
diversified purposes. Attractions like Borobudur
Temple or Mount Bromo or Wakatobi or Komodo Is-
land in NTT are among the few and the best of its kind
globally. Travel and tourism competitiveness index
1 https://www.jata-net.or.jp/english/news/2015/pdf/151210_top.pdf
- 1 -
on natural resources as well as cultural resources and
business travel (WEF, 2015). It is proven, no question
about that. However, the true battle is on transporta-
tion and tourist service infrastructure, as Indonesia
ranked badly (WEF, 2015).
Accordingly, this paper looks into trend of inbound
tourism in relation to tourist service infrastructure (es-
pecially accommodation services) and connectivity
(especially air connectivity) of those provinces desig-
nated as Ten New Bali relative to Bali itself. Bali has
everything, in addition to mature tourism product with
cultural and natural tourism attractions, they have ex-
cellent infrastructure and competitive human re-
sources. The focusing parameters in this paper are
market visibility of those areas from foreign tourists,
or in other word the inbound tourism trend. On the flip
side, the gaps can also mean opportunities for invest-
ment, but where to where to go and where to invest
after Bali? Which one among those 10 that are prom-
ising?
1-2-1 Locations of Ten New Bali (indicate Ja-
karta, Bali and locations of Ten New Bali)
In general, the trend of foreign tourists arrival to
Indonesia has been positive for the past two decades.
It is almost doubled, from around 4.8 million in 2000
to around 9.1 million foreign tourists arrival in 2015.
This even with slowdown of around 10.28% and 8.2%
respectively due to the Bali Bombing in 2002 and
2005. This trend is expected to continue for the next
decades (citation needed). On annual average 77.90%
tourists came from Asia Pacific Region, followed by
16.28% from Europe and 4.50% from North and
South American region. As can be seen from the fig-
ure below, the top-five foreign tourists are dominated
2017

by countries in Asia-Pacific region: 1) Singapore (an-
nually around 1.3 million tourists), 2) Malaysia (879
thousands), 3) Australia (600 thousands), 4) Japan
(500 thousands) and China (400 thousands). Although
the latest data suggest that influx of Chinese tourists
have surpassed that of Australia and Japan.
1-2-2 Foreign Tourists Arrival to Indonesia (Top
Five countries, data source: BPS, 2016)
In terms of average stays, however, there is a down-
ward trend for foreign tourists in staying in Indonesia.
While on average foreign tourists stay for 12.26 days
in 2000, it has reduced to 7.70 days in 2015. This latest
average stay is more reflective towards tourists from
Asia Pacific region with average stays of 7.40 days.
On average, based on 2000-2015 data, tourists from
Europe and North and South America tend to stay
longer with 13.43 days and 12.00 days respectively.
On nationwide average, there is little correlation be-
tween reduced average stays with tourists spending.
The average tourists spending was in fact slightly in-
creased from US$ 1,135.18 in 2000 to US$ 1,142.24
in 2013. Potentially the spending is associated with
country of origin and average stays of tourists. Based
on average tourists spending data of 2000-2013, tour-
ists from Asia-Pacific region spend about US$ 945.96
while those from Europe and North and South Amer-
ican region recorded to spent about US$ 1,392.37 and
US$ 1,376.90 respectively. Interestingly for tourists
from Middle East and North African region, although
the average stays were around 7.44 days, the average
spending was around US$ 1,323.74.
Accordingly, it is important to capture both markets
of tourists from Asia-Pacific region, that has more
number of tourists, and from other regions, which tend
to stay longer and spend more. The data on revenue
generated from tourists from top-five countries as well
2017 - 2 -
as European and North-South America can be found
below.
1-2-3 Revenue generated from foreign tourists
arrival to Indonesia (in million US$, data source: BPS,
2016)
2
It has been proven that foreign tourists market gen-
erally goes for Bali for their visit for the past four dec-
ades. Data from 2003 to 2015 suggests that on annual
average, 44.12% foreign tourist came to Bali (Ngurah
Rai International Airport/DPS) as their first port of en-
try to Indonesia. From 1998 to 2004, the main port of
entry for foreigners was either Bali or Batam. Yet,
from 2005 until present almost one-third of foreigners
used Bali International Airport as their first entry to
Indonesia. It is followed by Soekarno Hatta Interna-
tional Airport in Greater Jakarta region and Batam
(Riau Archipelago Province) through its Hang Nadim
airport and Batam seaport.
1-2-4 Port of entry for foreign tourists to Indo-
nesia (passengers, data source: BPS, 2016)
Based on the data of foreigners staying in star-ho-
tels in Bali, it was already quadruple from around 1
million tourists in 2003 to 5.3 million in 2015. In Ja-
karta Capital Region, it has increased three times from

around 625 thousand in 2003 to 1.8 million in 2015.
In Jakarta, the data may be mixed with non-tourists
foreigners, while in Bali mainly foreigners came for
tourism activities, including MICE tourism. This have
been significant compare to other provinces desig-
nated as part of the new Bali, thus it is important to
look in comparison between those provinces as can be
seen in figure below. Among the other nine provinces,
it seems that East Java, North Sumatra, Banten, NTB
and Central Java are quite promising while NTT, Sou-
hteast Sulawesi and North Maluku are clearly lagging
behind. For East Java, even though the number of
tourists increased by four times in 2008-2010 period,
it has been further decile to around 200 thousand tour-
ists in the period of 2013 until present. Meanwhile, the
number of tourists visiting North Sumatra and Banten
have increased three times. Hence, this must be treated
carefully since it may not necessarily equal to tourists
visiting Toba Lake in North Sumatra or Tanjung
Lesung in Banten, since volume of trade to Medan
(capital of North Sumatra) and some part of cities in
Banten in the periphery of Jakarta may influence the
numbers. The data of NTB and Central Java are rather
promising and may be better indicate the number of
foreigners staying in the hotels as predictor to tourism
activities. The number of tourists have been increased
three-four times for NTB.
1-2-5 Foreign tourists staying in star hotels in
New Bali area without Jakarta and Bali (in thousand
tourists, data source: BPS, 2016)
We also looked into the data of foreign tourists
staying in non-star hotels, as can be seen in figure X.
Generally, foreign tourists are not staying in non-star
hotels (citation needed). In East Java, North Sumatra,
- 3 -
NTB and Central Java the trends of foreign tourists
staying in non-star hotels sharply declined in recent
years. Supporting its position as emerging market for
star hotels. The positive trend only observed in NTT
where number of foreign tourists staying in non-star
hotels has almost doubled from before 2010 record to
2015. Hence, this might due to lack of star hotels in
the province, with only 23 star hotels in comparison to
75 in NTB or 317 in Bali, its neighboring province.
1-2-6 Foreign tourists staying in non-star hotels
in New Bali area without Jakarta and Bali (in thou-
sand tourists, data source: BPS, 2016)
In terms of prospect of acceptance to tourism prod-
uct of the New Bali, it may be predicted from the
data on average stays of foreign tourists in those prov-
inces, as indicated in table below. The average stays of
foreign tourists for the period 2008-2015 was 3.28
days in Bali, and 2.81 days in Indonesian average. The
locations with average stays of tourists longer than In-
donesian average are Bangka-Belitung, Jakarta Capi-
tal Region, NTB, NTT and North Maluku. Note that
the average stays of tourists in NTB, 3.53 days, is al-
ready longer than that of Bali.
Table 1 Average Stays of Foreign Tourists 2008-2015
(in days, data source: BPS, 2015)
3
International connectivity will be a key element to
forecast the prospect of the new Bali, particularly air
connectivity as the mode of choice of more than 75%
tourists, which also discussed in the previous section.
2017


The second most destination for tourists is the Soe-
karno-Hatta International Airport in Banten Province,
near Jakarta Capital Region. Between Jakarta (CGK
and HLP airports) and Bali (DPS) there are 49 flights
per day. Various airlines are servicing Jakarta to 45 cit-
ies worldwide and Bali to 35 cities (scheduled), with
additional 15 cities (seasonal flights). In addition, it is
recorded traffic of 500 private aircrafts per month in
Balis Ngurah Rai Airport, which serviced in a special
apron and terminal.2 International air connectivity is
essential as shown in a comparison between NTB (one
of the New Bali) with North Sulawesi, the former
has an increase of 127% more foreign tourist between
the period of April 2017 in comparison to the same
period last year while the latter had an increase of
312%.3 It can be attributed to the fact that the latter
had more new international flight slots to China (an
emerging market for foreign tourism) than NTB had
with their new slots from/to two additional countries
in Southeast Asia.
Table 2 below illustrates the current situation of air
connectivity of the Ten New Bali.

Table 2 Domestic and International Air Connectivity of the Ten-New Bali

Location (province name) | International direct flight Domestic international connectivity (transfer from domestic to in-

Main airports (IATA code) ternational airport)

Danau Toba (North Sumatra); Yes, 4 cities in Southeast Asia 8 hours ground transportation from KNO to Danau Toba
Kualanamu International (KNO) (regular) and 3 cities in Middle KNO CGK (37 flights daily)
East and South Asia (seasonal)

Belitung Island (Bangka Belitung); H.A. No TJQ CGK (10 flights daily)
S. Hanandjoeddin (TJQ)

Tanjung Lesung (Banten); Soekarno Yes, 45 cities worldwide 8 hours ground transportation from CGK to Tanjung Lesung
Hatta International (CGK)

Thousands Island (Jakarta Capital Re- Yes, 45 cities worldwide 6 hours ferry from mainland Jakarta to Thousand Islands
gion); Soekarno Hatta International

Borobudur (Central Java); Semarang Yes, 2 cities in Southeast Asia SRG CGK (23 flights daily) or SRG DPS (2 flights daily);
(SRG), Solo (SOC) and Yogyakarta SOC CGK (13 flights daily) or SOC DPS (2 flights daily);
(JOG) JOG CGK (23 flights daily) or JOG DPS (8 flights daily)

Mount Bromo (East Java); Abdurrah- No (MLG), Ground connectivity: 2 hours drive from MLG to Bromo, 6 hours
man Saleh (MLG), Yes (SUB), 8 cities in South- drive from SUB to Bromo

Juanda International (SUB) east and East Asia; 3 cities in Air connectivity: MLG DPS (1 flight daily); SUB CGK (50
Middle East flights daily) or SUB DPS (12 flights daily)

Mandalika-Lombok Island (NTB); Yes, 2 cities in Southeast Asia, LOP CGK (12 flights daily)
Lombok Praya International (LOP) 1 city in Middle East LOP DPS (7 flights daily)

Daily ferry from Lombok to Bali

Labuan Bajo (NTT); Komodo Airport No LBJ CGK (1 flight daily)

(LBJ) LBJ DPS (7 flights daily)

Wakatobi (Southeast Sulawesi); No WKB UPG in Makasssar, South Sulawesi flights to cities in
Matahora Airport (WKB) Southeast Asia, DPS (6 flights daily) or CGK (42 flights daily)

WKB KDI in Kendari, South Sulawesi CGK (4 flights daily)

Emerging chartered flight from DPS (Bali) to WKB

2 http://www.thejakartapost.com/bali-daily/2013-05-24/new-apron-pri- 3 http://www.thejakartapost.com/travel/2017/06/03/indonesia-welcomes-
vate-jets-charter-flights.html 1-14-million-foreign-tourists-in-april.html

2017 - 4 -

Morotai (North Maluku); Leo Watti- No
mena (OTI)
Source: Created by author based on various sources, as of May 2017
NTB Province (Lombok) has the upper hand with
the completion of Lombok International Airport
(LOP) in 2010. The new airport brings growth of for-
eign tourists up to 190% in 2010-2015 period than
only 67% during 2005-2010 period. It is also looks
promising as in May 2017 alone, additional two inter-
national airlines expressed their interest to operate di-
rect flight to NTB; i.e. from Brunei Darussalam and4
South Korea respectively. In recent policy speech of
5
Ministry of Tourism, it is also NTB that will be highly
promoted to capture market of Middle East tourists for
their summer holiday. As for Borobudur, that can pro-
vide economic benefit to both Central Java and Jogja-
karta Provinces, the current airports (SRG, SOC and
JOG) can be intensified by opening international flight
to other Southeast Asian cities as currently only serv-
ing flights from Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. It is ap-
propriately in line with the Strategic Plan of Tourism
Development of Jogjakarta (Ripparda) that envision
the province as leading tourism destination in South-
east Asia by 2025.
North Sumatra (Toba Lake), Banten (Tanjung
Lesung), Jakarta (Thousand Islands) and East Java
(Mount Bromo), as the overall province, also have po-
tential with the availability of KNO, CGK and SUB
international airports. However, the challenge is to
build swift ground and sea connectivity with the main
destination outlined in the Ten New Bali policy; i.e.
it takes 8 hours drive from KNO to Toba Lake, 8
hours drive from CGK to Tanjung Lesung, 2 hours
ferry from north Jakarta to Thousand Islands (with in-
frequent schedule) and 6 hours drive from SUB to
Mount Bromo. As of present there is no policy inten-
tion to open international flight to MLG in Malang
city (for better access to Mount Bromo) or to open
4 http://travel.kompas.com/read/2017/05/09/103500727/royal.brunei.air-
lines.jajaki.pembukaan.rute.ke.lombok.
5 http://travel.kompas.com/read/2017/05/30/132000927/korean.air.ja-
jaki.seoul-lombok.
OTI MDC in Manado, North Sulawesi From MDC there are air-
lines with scheduled and chartered flight to several cities in China, or
to Jakarta/Bali, MDC CKG (11 flight daily) or MDC DPS (1
flight daily)
other local airport near Tanjung Lesung or Thousand
Islands. Also, it still requires some time until Silangit
Airport (DTB), which is closer to Toba Lake than
KNO, can serve international flight and become prof-
itable route.
Wakatobi (Southeast Sulawesi) and Labuan Bajo
(NTT) have own situation. Both have their local air-
ports (Matahora and Komodo airports) serve only do-
mestic routes yet very much connected with Bali and
Jakarta. Despite there is a need for connection in Ma-
kassar, South Sulawesi (UPG airport) in the case of
Wakatobi. Accordingly, often the flight ticket to Wa-
katobi and Labuan Bajo not economical enough for
generating foreign tourists traffic. On the other hand,
the market of premium foreign tourists would avoid
itinerary with several stop overs, thus to both destina-
tions there is an emerging service of private and char-
tered flights as part of the tour package from Bali.6
4
With the situation in Indonesia is getting more con-
ducive for investment, as in rating from Standard and
Poors on May 2017, tourism-related industry will be
even more developed. This is an opportunity for both
domestic and international players in tourism industry,
as well as assuring inbound tourists traffic. Availabil-
ity of reliable transportation infrastructure, particu-
larly airlines service, and accommodations facilities
will be the key to promote and build leverage on the
high-quality attractions in the Ten New Bali.
The analysis on this paper conclude that among the
Ten New Bali still NTB (Lombok) is the most likely
candidate to be a truly Next Bali as proven from the
current and prospect of transportation and acceptance
by foreign tourists. On one sense, it is also can be said
6 For example, see: https://www.wakatobi.com/prices-booking/getting-
here/
- 5 - 2017


as the spill-over effect from Bali due to the geo- Maluku) is the truly raw and rare gems that requires
graphical proximity and access between the two prov- significant amount of investment on tourism attraction
inces. This particularly true when one referring to the and tourism-supporting infrastructure development.
proven tourism product of the Gili Islands in the west-
ern part of Lombok Island, NTB. However, the true 5
strong point of NTB is a coherent tone between local MToCE (Ministry of Toursim and Creative Economy).
government policy direction and private sectors de- 2016. Tourism Destination Development Priority
velopment of new ideas to strengthen their tourism in- 2016-2019. Jakarta: Ministry of Toursim and Cre-
dustry, such as positioning themselves with the brand ative Economy.
Halal Tourism or aggressively marketing the Man- WEF. 2015. The Travel and Tourism Competitiveness
dalika Project that envision an end-to-end high class Report 2015: Growth through Shocks. Geneva:
resort that potentially will be as success as Nusa Dua World Economic Forum (WEF). Available online
in Bali.7 Starting from 2015, the Indonesian Tourism (last accessed 31 May 2017): http://www3.wefo-
Development Corporation (state-owned) has started rum.org/docs/TT15/WEF_Global_Travel&Tour-
development of Mandalika with initial capital of IDR ism_Report_2015.pdf
25 billion.8 Governor of NTB has continuously active To be added
to promote the province to airlines and other potential
investors for the development, as part of provincial
tourism Board of Authority, which according to cur-
rent national government policy, has primary task to
coordinate investment and development of Special
Economic Zones of Tourism in Ten New Bali loca-
tions. The Board of Authority is expected to provide a
more coherence tourism planning and investment pro-
cedure for the area development. Other locations (par-
ticularly the Tourism KEK) can really take example of
NTB.
The author would like to also suggest that Labuan
Bajo (NTT) and Wakatobi (Southeast Sulawesi) as the
next candidates where there is still a wide opportunity
for pioneering investments, but in a relatively proven
attractions and potentially lower risk. On the other
hand, Danau Toba (North Sumatra), Belitung Island
(Bangka Belitung), Tanjung Lesung (Banten) and
Thousand Islands (Jakarta) still have has wide oppor-
tunity for investment, lower risk, lighter infrastructure
development needed and potential availability of hu-
man resources; yet the appealing factor may not be
truly worldwide and just for domestic market. Other
destinations in Java Island, Mount Bromo and
Borobudur, basically requires better management in-
stead of new investments. Meanwhile, Morotai (North
7 See http://www.lombokdream.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Man- 8 http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/09/12/economic-zone-ex-
dalika-Resort-Lombok.pdf pected-to-boost-halal-tourism-in-ntb.html

2017 - 6 -