The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics

www.td.com/economics

July 30, 2010

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK

• A slew of positive macroeconomic data across Europe lifted market sentiment, underpinning the euro
• European financial stocks were up sharply and sovereign debt spreads narrowed significantly
• U.S. second quarter real GDP came in to the downside of expectations at 2.4% (annualized). Downward
revisions to past growth show a deeper recession than previously thought with a peak-to-trough decline of
-4.1%.
• Real consumer spending comes in weak at 1.6% (annualized) in Q2. Consumer spending growth is also up
a meager 1.6% from its trough a year ago.
• St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard says the U.S. is as close to a deflationary threat that it
has even been and recommends the Fed do more to anchor inflation expectations.
• Canadian economic activity improves marginally in May, with real GDP growing by 0.1%.
• Goods-producing sectors, as in the past, are driving the recovery; however, these were also the sectors
responsible for much of the decline in economic output.
• In particular, manufacturing, mining, oil, and gas extraction, transportation & warehousing, wholesale trade
and retail trade have accounted for most of the peak-to-trough decline in overall real GDP, and the subsequent
growth thereafter.
• If the 1980’s recession and recovery was a capital ‘V’, then undoubtedly the 2008-2009 recession would be
a lower-case ‘v’.
• Overall, the current recovery will continue to be driven by goods-producing sectors such as manufacturing,
construction, and mining, oil, & gas extraction due mainly to capacity underutilization.

THIS WEEK IN THE MARKETS

Week 52-Week 52-Week CANADA & U.S. REAL GDP INDEXES
Current*
Ago High Low
Stock Market Indexes Index, December 2007 = 100
101
S&P 500 1100 1103 1217 980
S&P/TSX Comp. 11719 11714 12281 10532
100
DAX 6173 6166 6332 5202
Canada
FTSE 100 5282 5313 5825 4608 99 U.S.
Nikkei 9537 9431 11339 9082
Fixed Income Yields 98
U.S. 10-yr Treasury 2.92 2.99 3.99 2.88
Canada 10-yr Bond 3.14 3.23 3.72 3.07 97
Germany 10-yr Bund 2.67 2.71 3.51 2.51
UK 10-yr Gilt 3.33 3.44 4.23 3.32 96
Japan 10-yr Bond 1.07 1.08 1.48 1.06
Foreign Exchange Cross Rates 95
C$ (USD per CAD) 0.97 0.97 1.00 0.90 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10

Euro (USD per EUR) 1.30 1.29 1.51 1.19 Source: Statistics Canada, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Pound (USD per GBP) 1.57 1.54 1.70 1.43
Yen (JPY per USD) 86.6 87.5 97.6 86.4
Commodity Spot Prices** GLOBAL OFFICIAL POLICY RATE TARGETS
Crude Oil ($US/bbl) 76.9 78.7 86.8 65.7 Current Target
Natural Gas ($US/MMBtu) 4.79 4.70 7.51 1.88 Federal Reserve (Fed Funds Rate) 0 - 0.25%
Copper ($US/met. tonne) 7208.3 7008.0 7960.3 5604.5 Bank of Canada (Overnight Rate) 0.50%
Gold ($US/troy oz.) 1175.2 1189.2 1256.8 934.4 European Central Bank (Refi Rate) 1.00%
*as of 11am on Friday, **Oil-WTI, Cushing, Nat. Gas-Henry Hub, LA Bank of England (Repo Rate) 0.50%
(Thursday close price), Copper-LME Grade A, Gold-London Gold Bank of Japan (Overnight Rate) 0.10%
Bullion; Source: Bloomberg Source: Central Banks, Haver Analytics
 The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics
July 30, 2010 2
www.td.com/economics

INTERNATIONAL – EUROPE’S SOVEREIGN DEBT WOES, GONE WITH THE WIND?

This week Europe caught some wind in its sails, with

10-YEAR GOVERNMENT SPREADS
good news blowing from several quadrants. Indicators
showing better than expected results began to accumulate Basis points
1000 1000
a week ago with the release of strong second quarter GDP Portugal
data for the United Kingdom -up by 1.6% Y/Y- well ahead Spain
800 800
of market expectations, and the stress test results on 91 Eu-
Italy
ropean banks. Granted, the design of the stress scenarios 600 600
Greece
was seen as too lenient (for instance, they ignored the pos-
sibility of a Greek debt restructuring), and the resulting low 400
Ireland
400
failing rate and small recapitalization needs were received
with some skepticism by analysts. Nonetheless, the market 200 200
took some comfort on the detailed disclosure of information
regarding the exposure of European banks to sovereign debt. 0 0
Investor sentiment continued to build with strong second Aug-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10
quarter earnings and the publication of some new regulation Source: Bloomberg, spreads to 10-year German Bunds

details by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision that

looked to be less stringent than previously anticipated. As sectors. Indeed, the unemployment rate fell to 7.6% in July,
a result, financial stock prices rose during the week, while the lowest since November 2008. In turn, German business
the spread on credit default swaps of financial institutions confidence surged this month, according to the Ifo Business
also came down. The euro also benefited from this bout Climate index. Sizeable improvements regarding both the
of positive sentiment, and was trading up by roughly 9.7% current situation and the outlook for the second half of the
from its June lows vis-à-vis the US dollar. year were observed among a swath of firms in manufactur-
Near-term economic momentum is building broadly ing, construction, wholesale, and retail.
across Europe. For instance, in Germany an increase in Other surveys compiled by the European Commission
industrial orders, both from domestic and external buyers, also showed a lift in consumer and businesses sentiment
and a rebound in construction have proved supportive of across broader Europe. And to top it all off, the European
overall activity. Unemployment has been trending down Central Bank reported credit data for June, which showed
and part-time jobs have also shifted to full time in many strong household credit expansion across the euro area
driven mainly by mortgages, but also stemming from con-
sumption credit. A slower decline in credit to non-financial
EUROPEAN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS corporations could also be regarded as a positive note.
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS In response to all this upbeat news, yield spreads on
basis points
1.58
10-year Spanish, Irish, Portuguese, and Greek bonds to
220
iTraxx CDS Index USD/EUR German bunds edged down by as much as 45 basis points as
of Thursday, although at the time of writing they appeared
1.48
180 to have turned back up slightly. Moreover, both Spain and
Greece had successful sovereign bond placements, which
1.38
140 highlighted the shift in risk perception towards European
peripherals.
100 1.28 Although the recent slew of macroeconomic data has
been refreshing, the underlying fundamentals of most Eu-
60 1.18 ropean economies have not changed dramatically. Within
Aug-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 the euro area, Germany is pretty much on its own when it
Source: Bloomberg comes to driving the region’s recovery, as its main euro
 The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics
July 30, 2010 3
www.td.com/economics

partners will face much tougher fiscal consolidation efforts.

The other countries also stand to benefit less from the boost EUROPEAN BANKS SHARE PRICES

to exports stemming from the weaker euro and resilient

1000
external demand from emerging markets. Moreover, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 TR Banks
German economy is unlikely to maintain its recent robust- 950
ness for much longer. Collective wage negotiations sought
900
to safeguard jobs in Germany, causing many industries to
agree to freeze basic pay until 2011. These arrangements, 850
combined with flexible working hour schemes avoided
800
a sharp increase in unemployment throughout the reces-
sion. The flipside to this is that income growth will remain 750
sluggish, restraining consumption growth. In addition, a
700
decline in public investment projects due to the withdrawal
Aug-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10
of fiscal stimulus will pose a drag on economic activity. As
such, the German economy will continue to rely heavily on Source: Bloomberg
exports to sustain its upturn; but, as we highlighted in our
latest Quarterly Economic Forecast, a slight slowdown in
next year, when most of the proposed tightening efforts will
economic activity in emerging markets will prevent German
be implemented in these countries.
external sales from climbing at the fast pace that emerged
In all, the recent slew of macroeconomic data has been
during the early stage of the recovery.
refreshing, but the underlying economic fundamentals for
Outside of Germany, muted job gains will keep pressure
most European economies have not changed. In the coming
on private consumption across the euro zone. So far, France,
quarters they will continue to face headwinds, and progress
Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain have not seen improve-
will be secured very slowly.
ments in their labor markets. Fiscal retrenchment will also
carry a detrimental impact on households’ disposable income
Martin Schwerdtfeger, Economist
416-982-2559
 The Weekly Bottom Line
July 30, 2010
UNITED STATES – HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT IS STAYING FOR CHRISTMAS
It doesn’t matter what daily rag you read in the morn-
ing, the economy is bound to be front page news. With the
release of second quarter real GDP today, another page has
been written in the story of the economic recovery. Delever-
aging is a dominant theme, playing out in a shell-shocked
consumer sector where spending has grown at half the pace
of the overall economy thus far in the recovery.
Another key element to the slow pace of growth is labor
market conditions. In fact, perhaps the main question faced
by policy makers on both the fiscal and monetary front is
how to get America hiring again.
The Great Recession ravaged payrolls, cutting over 8
million jobs and leaving the number of employed at a level
not seen in more than a decade. Next week we get data on
job growth for the month of July. As a result of the continu-
ing unwind of census hiring, total employment will likely
decline by more than 100,000 and the unemployment rate
will likely increase. In the run up to this important report,
it is worth examining recent trends in job growth and un-
employment, and what we might expect over the remainder
of this year.
From December 2009 – when employment reached a
nadir – to June 2010, the U.S. economy created 882,000 jobs.
Of these, 593,000 were private-sector jobs, and 324,000
were census related jobs. (Government employment outside
of the census fell by 35,000 over this period). On average,
private job growth in 2010 has amounted to 99,000 jobs a
month.
While it is certainly a positive development that job
growth has turned upward, it is important to place these
numbers in context. In order to bring down the rate of
unemployment (currently sitting at 9.5%), the increase in
jobs must be greater than the increase in entrants to the
labor force. In normal times, the labor force expands by
around 130,000 persons a month. However, discouraged by
the likelihood of finding employment during the recession,
many job searchers gave up the ghost and left the workforce
altogether. As a result, the labor force participation rate has
fallen from a pre-recession level of 66% to its current level
of 64.7%. While the labor force has grown by an average
of 113,000 per month thus far in 2010, the total labor force
is still 1.2 million workers below its peak level. As the
economy improves, history tells us that many of these dis-
couraged workers will continue to re-enter the labor force.
So, even as job growth turns positive it will have to compete
with even stronger growth in the labor force.
TD Economics
4
www.td.com/economics
U.S. REAL GDP & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
8
Percent change Percent
12
6 10
4 8
2 6
0 4
Real GDP Growth (lhs)
-2 2
Unemployment Rate (rhs)
-4 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010F
Sources: BEA, BLS. Forecast by TD Economics.
An expanding economy should mean more employment,
but this is not a foregone conclusion. Indeed, jobs continued
to be shed through the second half of 2009, even while the
economy was improving. The discrepancy is explained for
the most part by rising labor force productivity, which grew
by whopping 7.3% (annualized). In addition, employers also
cut the average hours worked during the recession. While
this has improved in 2010, as of June, the average work week
was still 1.7% below its level before the recession began.
So, with real GDP growth of around 2.5%, what does
this mean for job growth in the second half of this year?
After several quarters of raucous growth, productivity is
likely to slow over the remainder of 2010. At the same
time, employers are likely to move average weekly hours
closer to their pre-recession level. Presuming modest gains
in average hours and a slowdown in productivity to around
1.0% (annualized), a reasonable estimate for employment
is for growth of somewhere between 100,000 to 150,000
jobs per month. At this rate, with workers beginning to make
their way back into the labor force, the unemployment rate
is likely to remain at or close to its current level of 9.5% for
the remainder of 2010. The bottom line is that in order to
see any noticeable improvement in the unemployment rate,
economic growth is going to have to be a whole lot better.
James Marple,
Senior Economist
416-982-2557
 The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics
July 30, 2010 5
www.td.com/economics

CANADA – A SEMI-THROWBACK TO THE 80’S

Real GDP data for May 2010 released this morning
indicated that Canadian economic activity increased by
0.1%. More importantly, May marked the end of the first
full year of recovery following the recession of 2008-2009.
As is common knowledge by now, the Canadian economy
experienced a robust recovery that outpaced most of its
advanced international counterparts around the world, in-
cluding the U.S. and Western Europe. But what drove the
pace of expansion?
Unfortunately, comparing Canadian recessions and re-
coveries is, in fact, quite troublesome in that we simply do
not have very much history to rely on. Unlike our friends
to the South who have no less than 8 recessions since 1960,
we in the Great White North thankfully have only three –
1981-1982, 1991-1992, and 2008-2009.
In all three recessions, much of the loss in economic out-
put came from a few key sectors: manufacturing, wholesale
and retail trade, mining, oil & gas, construction, and trans-
portation & warehousing. However, these same sectors are
also responsible for much of the economic recovery, which
is intuitive given that pent-up demand builds over the course
of the recession and is then released when the economy goes
into recovery-mode, resulting in outsized gains in the areas
worst hit. When the aforementioned five sectors are taken
as a whole, they contributed 75-125% of the peak-to-trough
declines in total output and 65-100% of subsequent growth
in the following year across all three recessions.
Over the past year, the Canadian economy has undoubt-
edly benefited from a robust recovery in these particular
sectors; but, things are a little different this time around.
The current recovery has been much more dramatic than
in the 1990’s, where it was a long drawn-out affair. The
1990’s housing crash occurred contemporaneously with
the Bank of Canada building its credibility as an inflation
fighter; thus, monetary policy failed to have the stimulative
impact felt in the 80’s and latest recovery. In addition, the
federal government was also in the process of combating
fiscal deficits through widespread spending cuts, resulting
in the exact opposite response that has occurred recently.
Indeed, the current pace of recovery appears more akin to
the rebound that occurred in the 1980’s, but in a much less
pronounced way. If the 80’s was a capital ‘V’, then certainly
2008 and 2009 would be considered a lower-case ‘v’.
Though there are differences. In particular, services
are playing a much larger role than they once did which
tends to smooth out the business cycle. As such, though the
declines in, say, manufacturing output are almost identical
between the two recessions, the overall recovery this time
around is much more muted than in the 1980’s. So although
the economic recovery in Canada is still being driven by
certain goods-producing sectors, a wider range of services
are increasingly becoming an integral part of that process.
So where does the economic recovery go from here?
The discussion so far has focused only on the year follow-
ing the trough in activity, but the length of time it takes any
given sector to fully recover can vary widely. For example,
manufacturing yet sits some 10% from its level at the end
of 2007, while the construction and mining, oil & gas sec-
tors are still 5-6% away from theirs. Many services either
showed no discernible decline in activity or have already
recovered to their pre-recession levels. In other words, the
major goods-producing sectors will continue to drive the
Canadian economic recovery for the time being. While
the majority of services should persist in their consistently
moderate growth, the bulk of real GDP growth will likely
be accounted for by manufacturing, construction, and min-
ing, oil, & gas extraction, mainly due to the underutilized
capacity yet present in those sectors.
Francis Fong, Economist
416-982-8066

CANADIAN DOWNTURNS AND RECOVERIES, MAJOR CONTRIBUTING SECTORS, % CHANGE IN REAL OUTPUT
Total Mining, Oil & Gas Transportation &
Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade
Economy Extraction Warehousing
Peak-to-Trough Declines in Output
1981-1982 -6.0 -17.4 -8.1 -14.6 -5.9 -9.0
1990-1992 -2.4 -12.3 7.1 -4.3 -9.5 -7.2
2008-2009 -4.0 -16.3 -9.8 -11.7 -2.1 -6.2
Output Growth 1 Year After
1981-1982 5.7 14.2 12.0 16.6 4.4 12.1
1990-1992 1.2 5.6 -0.3 3.7 1.5 2.9
2008-2009 3.8 8.6 7.9 8.3 4.7 5.8
Source: Statistics Canada
 The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics
July 30, 2010 6
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U.S.: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Report - July*

U.S. PURCHASING MANAGERS' INDEX
Release Date: August 2/10
Index
June Result: 56.2 67
TD Forecast: 54.8
62
Consensus: 54.5
57

The ISM manufacturing index is expected to post a 52

modest decline in July falling from 56.2 to 54.8, the third
47
decline in as many months. The index continues to point to
solid economic activity but some of the froth from its recent 42
peak of 60.4 in April (also the highest since January 2004)
37
had been reduced by weakening new orders, inventories, and
to a lesser extent production. The manufacturing sector has 32
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
been extremely strong over this recovery period, certainly
more so than the service sector, in part on the positive con- Last plotted: June 2010
Source: U.S. Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
tribution from the external sector. Over 80% of exports are
manufactures of some type. The export component of the
ISM, not reflected in the headline calculation, had risen from
its recent low of 35.5 in December 2008 to a recent high of
62 in May. Last month those orders fell to 56, a six month
low, and further deterioration will provide clues as to the
depth of the recent fallout from the Euro Crisis during Q2.

*Forecast by TDSI, Currency and Fixed Income Research. For further information, contact TDSecurities.EconomicswStrategy@
tdsecurities.com.
 The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics
July 30, 2010 7
www.td.com/economics

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls - July*

U.S. LABOR MARKET
Release Date: August 6/10
June Result: -125K; unemployment rate 9.5% 600 Thousands of jobs % 11.0
TD Forecast: -160K ; unemployment rate 9.7%
10.0
Consensus: -95K; unemployment rate 9.6% 400

Unemployment 9.0
The July employment report is expected to demonstrate 200
Rate (rhs)
a lack of follow through in private job growth that had av- 8.0
0
eraged almost 145k per month during Q2. Private payrolls 7.0
are forecast to rise only 45k in July, half the pace in June, -200
6.0
while headline jobs decline by 160k owing to another round
of census worker fires. Job growth in July is facing several -400 Net Job 5.0
Change* (lhs)
headwinds. The high frequency labour indicators have -600 4.0
been fair, and in the case of the monster index very strong. Jun.09 Aug.09 Oct.09 Dec.09 Feb.10 Apr.10 Jun.10
However, birth death adjustments will be negative and a Seasonally-adjusted data; * Change in non-farm payrolls
slowdown in hiring for leisure and hospitality, construction, Source: U.S. Deptartment of Labor/Haver Analytics

and professional business services indicate a subpar perfor-

mance on the month. The unemployment rate is forecast to
rise to 9.7% as some of the recent weakness in the labour
force is unwound relative to employment.
One strain of thought over the current recovery is that
surging profits have not translated into a commensurate rise
in labour demand. Some have argued that this reflects a less
rosy state for small businesses that have struggled more
to obtain bank financing. We lean against both assertions
because labour demand has increased substantially and in a
fashion generally consistent with prior profit recoveries. It
doesn’t feel that way because the last labour recession was
the worst in 80 years. Private jobs were falling by 600k per
month and are now rising by approximately 100k a month
over the past six months. That level of job creation may
be insufficient to chew up much excess slack in the labour
market, but it still represents a heroic turnaround. Moreover,
there does not appear to be any notable lag in hiring by small
businesses, at least not according to the ADP data. It may
be wishful thinking that job creation will now accelerate
as the economy approaches the peak in the earnings cycle.
We know productivity will slow as the output equation is
reduced, but firms are not yet at the point that requires a
surge in hiring given a workweek that has further room
to run. In July, the workweek is expected to remain edge
modestly higher to 34.2.

*Forecast by TDSI, Currency and Fixed Income Research. For further information, contact TDSecurities.EconomicswStrategy@
tdsecurities.com.
 The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics
July 30, 2010 8
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CANADA: UPCOMING KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES

Canadian Employment - July*
CANADA'S LABOUR MARKET
Release Date: August 6/10
June Result: 93.2K; unemployment rate 7.9% 140
Thousands of jobs %
9.0
TD Forecast: +20K; unemployment rate 7.9% Unemployment Rate
100 (rhs) 8.5
Consensus: +10K; unemployment rate 7.9%
8.0
60
The Canadian labour market continues to expand at a 7.5
truly remarkable rate, adding an average of 75K jobs over 20
7.0
the past three months. In fact, one has to look back to 1976 -20
to find as rapid of a pace of hiring over a three month period. 6.5
-60
While it is tempting to conclude that some of this hiring has 6.0

been pulled forward, which would justify a forecast for an -100 Net Job Change 5.5
(lhs)
outright contraction in employment, history shows that there -140 5.0
is a tremendous amount of persistence in the labour market. Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10
So even after the outsized gains observed in recent months, Seasonally-adjusted data; Source: Statistics Canada/Haver Analytics
employment in July is forecast to increase by 20K jobs. As
in recent months, the composition of job growth is expected
to be tilted towards the services sector. Furthermore, there keep the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.9%. Elsewhere
is little anticipated impact from special factors, since both in the survey, we anticipate that hours worked will slow for
the impact from the G8/G20 Summit and the lockout at the the second consecutive month, mirroring the deceleration
Port of Montreal fall outside the reference week used in the observed in other economic indicators. The expectation for
survey. The steady increase in the participation rate over slower economic growth in the second half of the year will
the last three months is expected to subside in July, which limit the rate at which additional jobs will be added to an
when paired with the modest forecast for job growth, will otherwise healthy labour market.

*Forecast by TDSI, Currency and Fixed Income Research. For further information, contact TDSecurities.EconomicswStrategy@
tdsecurities.com.
 The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics
July 30, 2010 9
www.td.com/economics

RECENT KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS: JULY 26-30, 2010

Release Data for
Economic Indicators Units Current Prior
Date Period
United States
July 26 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jun Index -0.63 0.31 R
July 26 New Home Sales Jun Thousands 330 267 R
July 26 New Home Sales Jun M/M % Chg. 23.6 -36.7 R
July 26 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Jul M/M % Chg. -21.0 -4.0
July 27 S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind May Index 146.43 144.59 R
July 27 S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA May M/M % Chg. 0.47 0.61 R
July 27 S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY May Y/Y % Chg. 4.61 3.83 R
July 27 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Jul Index 16 23
July 27 Consumer Confidence Jul Index 50.4 54.3 R
July 27 ABC Consumer Confidence 25-Jul Index -48 -45
July 28 MBA Mortgage Applications 23-Jul M/M % Chg. -4.4 7.6
July 28 Durable Goods Orders Jun M/M % Chg. -1.0 -0.8 R
July 28 Durables Ex Transportation Jun M/M % Chg. -0.6 1.2 R
July 29 Initial Jobless Claims 24-Jul Thousands 457 468 R
July 29 Continuing Claims 17-Jul Thousands 4565 4484 R
July 30 Employment Cost Index Q2 Q/Q % Chg 0.5 0.6
July 30 Chicago Purchasing Manager Jul Index 62.3 59.1
July 30 NAPM-Milwaukee Jul Index 66.0 59.0
Canada
July 28 Teranet/National Bank HPI Jun Y/Y % Chg. 13.6 12.9
July 29 Industrial Product Price Jun M/M % Chg. -0.9 0.4 R
July 29 Raw Materials Price Index Jun M/M % Chg. -0.3 -7.3 R
July 30 Gross Domestic Product MoM May M/M % Chg. 0.1 0.0
International
July 27 GE GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Aug Index 3.9 3.6 R
July 27 EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) Jun Y/Y % Chg. 0.2 -0.1 R
July 27 FR Jobseekers- Net Change Jun Thousands -8.6 22.6
July 27 AU Consumer Prices (QoQ) Q2 Q/Q % Chg 0.6 0.9
July 27 AU Consumer Prices (YoY) Q2 Y/Y % Chg. 3.1 2.9
July 27 NZ NBNZ Business Confidence Jul Index 27.9 40.2
July 28 JN Small Business Confidence Jul Index 48.1 47.4
July 28 GE CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) Jul Y/Y % Chg. 1.2 0.8
July 28 NZ RBNZ Official Cash Rate 29-Jul % 3.00 2.75
July 28 NZ Trade Balance Jun NZD, Mlns 276 768 R
July 28 JN Retail Trade MoM SA Jun M/M % Chg. 0.4 -2.0
July 28 NZ Money Supply M3 YoY Jun Y/Y % Chg. -3.3 -3.1
July 29 FR Producer Prices (YoY) Jun Y/Y % Chg. 3.5 4.3
July 29 GE Unemployment Change (000's) Jul Thousands -20 -20 R
July 29 GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) Jul % 7.6 7.7
July 29 UK Net Consumer Credit Jun GBP, Blns -0.1 0.3
July 29 EC Business Climate Indicator Jul Index 0.66 0.40 R
July 29 EC Euro-Zone Economic Confidence Jul Index 101.3 99.0 R
July 29 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Jul Index -22 -19
July 29 JN Overall Hhold Spending (YoY) Jun Y/Y % Chg. 0.5 -0.7
July 29 JN Natl CPI YoY Jun Y/Y % Chg. -0.7 -0.9
July 29 JN Natl CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Jun Y/Y % Chg. -1.0 -1.2
July 29 JN Industrial Production (MoM) Jun M/M % Chg. -1.5 0.1
July 30 JN Vehicle Production (YoY) Jun Y/Y % Chg. 25.9 30.6
July 30 EC Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate Jun % 10.0 10.0
July 30 EC Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) Jul Y/Y % Chg. 1.7 1.4
Source: Bloomberg, TD Economics
 The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics
July 30, 2010 10
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES AND EVENTS: AUGUST 2-6, 2010

Release Data for Consensus
Time* Economic Indicator/Event Units Last Period
Date Period Forecast
United States
Aug 2 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Jul Index 54.2 56.2
Aug 2 10:00 ISM Prices Paid Jul Index 55.0 57.0
Aug 2 10:00 Construction Spending Jun M/M % Chg. -0.5 -0.2
Aug 2 16:00 Geithner Delivers Remarks on Financial Reform
Aug 3 8:30 Personal Income Jun M/M % Chg. 0.2 0.4
Aug 3 8:30 Personal Spending Jun M/M % Chg. 0.1 0.2
Aug 3 8:30 PCE Deflator Jun Y/Y % Chg. 1.3 1.9
Aug 3 8:30 PCE Core Jun Y/Y % Chg. 1.3 1.3
Aug 3 10:00 Factory Orders Jun M/M % Chg. 0.0 -1.4
Aug 3 10:00 Pending Home Sales Jun M/M % Chg. -1.5 -30.0
Aug 3 17:00 ABC Consumer Confidence 1-Aug Index -46 -48
Aug 3 17:00 Domestic Vehicle Sales Jul Millions 8.90 8.57
Aug 3 17:00 Total Vehicle Sales Jul Millions 11.60 11.08
Aug 4 7:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 30-Jul M/M % Chg. -- -4.4
Aug 4 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts Jul Y/Y % Chg. -- -47.1
Aug 4 8:15 ADP Employment Change Jul Thousands 35 13
Aug 4 10:00 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Jul Index 53.0 53.8
Aug 5 -- San Francisco Fed Hosts Mortgage Hearing
Aug 5 8:30 Initial Jobless Claims 31-Jul Thousands 455 457
Aug 5 8:30 Continuing Claims 24-Jul Thousands 4536 4565
Aug 5 10:30 ICSC Chain Store Sales Jul Y/Y % Chg. -- 3.0
Aug 6 8:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jul Thousands -60 -125
Aug 6 8:30 Average Hourly Earning Jul M/M % Chg. 0.1 -0.1
Aug 6 8:30 Average Weekly Hours Jul Hours 34.1 34.1
Aug 6 8:30 Unemployment Rate Jul % 9.6 9.5
Aug 6 8:30 Change in Manufacturing Jul Thousands 18 9
Aug 6 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun USD, Blns -6.0 -9.1
Canada
Aug 5 8:30 Building Permits Jun M/M % Chg. 0.5 -10.8
Aug 6 7:00 Net Change in Employment Jul Thousands 10.0 93.2
Aug 6 7:00 Unemployment Rate Jul % 7.9 7.9
Aug 6 10:00 Ivey Purchaing Managers Index Jul Index 56.0 58.9
International
Aug 1 -- JP Official Reserve Assets Jul Yen, Blns -- 1050.2
Aug 1 20:30 AU TD Securities Inflation Jul Y/Y % Chg. -- 3.6
Aug 1 23:00 NZ ANZ Commodity Price Jul M/M % Chg. -- -1.2
Aug 2 1:00 JP Vehicle Sales Jul Y/Y % Chg. -- 20.6
Aug 2 2:30 AU RBA Commodity Index Jul Y/Y % Chg. -- 43.0
Aug 2 4:30 UK PMI Manufacturing Jul Index 57.0 57.5
Aug 2 19:50 JP Monetary Base Jul Y/Y % Chg. -- 3.6
Aug 2 21:30 AU Retail Sales Jun M/M % Chg. 0.4 0.2
Aug 2 21:30 AU Building Approvals Jun Y/Y % Chg. 16.0 26.6
Aug 3 12:30 AU RBA Cash Target 3-Aug % 4.50 4.50
Aug 3 -- UK Halifax House Prices Jul M/M % Chg. -0.3 -0.6
Aug 3 4:30 UK PMI Construction Jul Index 58.0 58.4
Aug 3 5:00 EU Euro-Zone PPI Jun M/M % Chg. 0.4 0.3
Aug 3 21:30 AU Trade Balance Jun AUD, Mlns 1800 1645
Aug 3 21:30 AU House Price Index Q2 Y/Y % Chg. 17.2 20.0
Aug 4 4:30 UK PMI Services Jul Index 54.5 54.4
Aug 4 5:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales Jun Y/Y % Chg. 0.1 0.3
Aug 4 18:45 NZ Unemployment Rate Q2 % 6.2 6.0
Aug 5 -- UK New Car Registrations Jul Y/Y % Chg. -- 10.8
Aug 5 6:00 GE Factory Orders Jun Y/Y % Chg. 21.6 24.8
Aug 5 7:00 UK BoE Asset Purchase Target Aug GBP, Blns 200 200
Aug 5 7:00 UK BoE Announces Rates 5-Aug % 0.50 0.50
Aug 5 7:45 EU ECB Announces Interest Rates 5-Aug % 1.00 1.00
Aug 6 6:00 GE Industrial Production Jun M/M % Chg. 0.5 2.6
* Eastern Standard Time; Shaded area represents actual figures; Sources: Bloomberg, TD Economics
 The Weekly Bottom Line TD Economics
July 30, 2010 11
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