ZF Friedrichshafen AG

Graf-von-Soden-Platz 1
88046 Friedrichshafen

EuroTransportMedia Verlags- und

Veranstaltungs-GmbH
Handwerkstrae 15
70565 Stuttgart

DEKRA
Handwerkstrae 15
70565 Stuttgart

Institut fr Nachhaltigkeit in Verkehr und Logistik

Hochschule Heilbronn
Max-Planck-Strae 39
74081 Heilbronn

rsity
eilbronn Unive
DEKRA and H

R 2.0
ration With
www.zf-zukunftsstudie.de and FERNFA
H RER in Coope

E R N FAHRE
E-F
Initiated by ZF

O N FU T U R
ZFs STUDY o r t &
n Tra n s p
H u m a n F a ctor i
The
g i s t i c s M a r kets
Lo
 Contents

45
67
Study 2.0 - Who Transports our Goods?
Management Summary

A
TRAFFIC DEVELOPMENT
A 89 Trends & Outlook
A1 1011 Traffic Development in Freight Transport
A2 1213 Increased Efficiency in Road Haulage
A3 14 Foreign Commercial Vehicles
A4 1516 Infrastructure Underfinancing
A5 1718 Vehicle Safety, Working and
Social Conditions
A6 1921 Drivers License and Professional
Driver Qualification

B
EXPERTS
B 2223 Objective of the Expert Interviews
B1 2426 Driver Types and Operating Areas
B2 2732 Shortage of Drivers
B3 3338 Developments Affecting the
Shortage of Drivers
B4 39 Development of Professional Drivers
Performance
B5 4042 Consequences of the Shortage of Drivers
B6 43 Interim Conclusion

C
ZF Friedrichshafen AG
ZF is a global leader in driveline and chassis technology with
122 production companies in 26 countries. In 2013, the Group
achieved a sales figure of EUR 16.8 billion with approximately
72 600 employees. In order to continue to be successful with
innovative products, ZF annually invests about five percent of
its sales (2013: EUR 836 million) in research and development.
ZF is one of the ten largest automotive suppliers worldwide.
FERNFAHRER and EuroTransportMedia Verlags-
und Veranstaltungs-GmbH
FERNFAHRER is a magazine for professional drivers,
PROFESSIONAL DRIVERS
C 4446 Implementation and Methodology
C1 47 Professional Continuity
C2 4849 Reasons for Choosing the Profession
C3 50 Driver Type
C4 5152 Operating Range and Areas
C5 5354 Working Hours
C6 5556 The Truck as Workplace
C7 57 Obtaining a Drivers License
C8 58 Tasks of Professional Drivers
C9 5960 Satisfaction With the Profession
and its Attractiveness
C10 61 Starting Points for Boosting Attractiveness
C11 6263 Assessment of Future Developments

D
forwarding agents, and decision-makers in the commercial
vehicle industry, published by EuroTransportMedia Verlags-
und Veranstaltungs-GmbH, a joint venture between DEKRA, YOUNG PROFESSIONALS
Motor Presse Stuttgart, and VF Verlagsgesellschaft.
D 6469 Initial Situation and Demand Development
DEKRA D1 7071 Apprentice Survey
DEKRA is one of the worldwide leading expert organizations. Today, D2 7274 Reasons for Choosing the Apprenticeship
the company operates in more than 50 countries. More than 32 000 D3 75 Reasons for Contract Termination
employees sustainably ensure safety, quality, and environmental D4 7677 Industry Image and Potential Optimizations
protection. DEKRA SE is a wholly owned subsidiary of DEKRA e.V.

E
and controls the groups operational business. DEKRAs business
units Automotive, Industrial, and Personnel stand for qualified
and innovative services on topics such as vehicle testing, expert TRENDS AND SCENARIOS
opinions, damage regulation, system certification, product testing
& certification, industry & construction testing, material testing &
E 78 Trends and Scenarios
inspection, consulting, qualification, and temporary employment. E1 7980 Driver Type 1, The Called
In 2013, DEKRA achieved sales amounting to approximately EUR E2 8182 Driver Type 2, The Committed
2.3 billion. E3 8283 Driver Type 3, The Rationalist
E4 8485 Driver Types and Transport Market
Institute for Sustainability in Transport and Logistics (INVL),
Heilbronn University
E5 8687 Recommendations for Action
The INVL deals with questions of sustainable development
and/or sustainable business in the context of logistics. At the
heart of the institutes activities are research, education, and
88 Bibliography
conveying information. The INVL focuses on the relation 90 Interview Partners
between Sustainability Transport Logistics. 91 Imprint

2 3
 Study 2.0 d s ?
o r t s o u r G o o
Who Tra n s p
The first ZF study on the future of transport (Zukunftsstudie FERNFAHRER)
drew attention to the worsening driving personnel situation. Around 40 % of
professional drivers will be retiring over the next ten years, while the prospect
of recruiting sufficient young drivers is remote. As a result, there will likely be
a shortage of drivers with far-ranging consequences for logistics, industry, and
the economy. One key reason for the lack of young drivers was seen as the
professions poor image. This second study now focuses on the driver. The
aim is to analyze the following questions above all:
Will the discernible shortage of drivers actually have dramatic repercussions
and what potential solutions are available?
Will all operating areas in which professional drivers are deployed be affected
to the same extent or will specific areas be affected in particular?
What does the professional driver of the future look like, what motivates him,
and what requirements does he place on his profession? Can professional
driver types be identified in this respect?
What consequences arise for the logistics industry from the future requirements
for structuring operating conditions and the workplace of professional drivers?
Can recommendations for action be derived for companies and government?
Chapter A initially highlights trends and prospects for traffic development. The chapter
focuses on future transport activity, options for increasing efficiency in road haulage,
and the usage of foreign commercial vehicles in Germany. Furthermore, this section
analyzes the state of the transport infrastructure and the associated funding. Aspects
of vehicle safety, working and social conditions, as well as the drivers license and
professional driver training are also covered.
4 5
Interviews with subject experts were conducted to gain initial assessments of the issues
raised. When selecting the experts, it was made sure that all target groups were taken into
account wherever possible. Chapter B sets out the results from these interviews. These
include opinions on the current and future driving personnel situation as well as questions
regarding measurement of the professional drivers performance and the future develop-
ment of a drivers productivity. This primarily entails identifying the need for action and
defining driver types along with specific motivations. The results are also meant to be
used as the basis for conducting the wide-ranging surveys among the actual target group,
namely current and future driving personnel.
Chapter C is devoted to current drivers. Here, the results of the driver survey are
presented and analyzed. In addition to producing sociodemographic data, this chapter
covers questions on the working environment and the perceived working conditions.
The chapter specifies the previously identified driver types with their specific motivations
and provides additional characteristics.
Chapter D focuses on future driving personnel. It attempts to ascertain future values
and requirements regarding the profession by surveying apprentices aiming to become
professional drivers. This also involves evaluating the factors of the profession itself that
determine its image. In this way, this chapter aims to provide starting points on how to
communicate with prospective young drivers and shape the image of the profession.
Critical aspects of the apprenticeship will also be determined here in order to provide
starting points for boosting attractiveness. The observed shift in values within society
assumes an important role here.
Chapter E aims to bring together the insights gained and provide an outlook based on
these findings. The previously derived driver types and areas of deployment are central
to this chapter. The analysis also aims to examine the extent to which the presented
developments have an impact on the attractiveness of the profession from the perspective
of the individual driver types. Once these factors are understood, consequences for the
economy and for society can be derived that result in recommendations for action for
government and companies. This study concludes with these recommendations for action.
 Management Summary
Transport performance and driving personnel
Transport forecasts point to a further increase in
transport activity through 2030, albeit more slowly than
originally assumed before the 2007/2008 financial and
economic crisis. German and Western European com-
mon carriers will lose additional substantial market share
to Eastern European providers. In addition, around 40 %
of professional drivers will be retiring over the next ten
years, while the prospect of recruiting sufficient young
drivers to replace those leaving is remote. As a result,
there will likely be a shortage of drivers. As already
stated in the first ZF study on the future of transport
(ZF Zukunftsstudie FERNFAHRER), one key reason for
the lack of young drivers is seen as the poor image of
the profession. In future, it will therefore be all the more
important to make the professions image more attractive
and develop target group-specific concepts for acquiring
young and professional drivers. There is still a wide
gap between the industrys actual performance and
its image.
Challenges facing the transport segment
The increasing deterioration of the state of roads and
the sustained underfinancing of the transport infrastruc-
ture continue to pose a serious challenge for the trans-
port sector. The lack of truck parking lots along highways
is just one example of this problem and one of the
causes of the increasing difficulty in complying with
social legislation. It can basically be seen that the longer
the distances and the more time drivers spend away
from home, the more difficult it will be to recruit driving
personnel in the future. The 30 experts surveyed for this
study therefore agree, among other things, that the
usage of driving personnel resources will have to be
structured more efficiently in the future and all players,
including customers, will have to readjust.
6 7
The observed shift in values within society is another interests regarding future developments. The driver
factor that will alter the image of the profession in the types could also be identified and proven with additional
future. Furthermore, demographic change will have an characteristics in the driver survey.
impact on the operating ranges and the driving person-
nel employed in Germany. The average age of drivers Based on this, conclusions were drawn regarding the
has increased to 47, up from just under 46 since the driver types of the future with the respective values and
last study in 2012, and is once again clear testimony performance incentives. The challenge for the employer
to the demographic challenge. of the future will be to match the requirements to the
operating profile and available jobs. In the future, the
Image of the driver profession from the concept for acquiring young and professional drivers
drivers and apprentices perspective must be tailored to the future dominant driver types. At
Around 85 % of those surveyed are satisfied with the same time, the industry and image of the profession
their profession. Satisfaction drops sharply the longer will change. Relevant factors in this regard will include
drivers are employed in their current company, the greater industrialization in the transport sector, general
more professional experience they have, and the competition for staff, and the domestic and foreign
longer the operating range. competition on the transport market.
It is difficult to implement new working models and
deployment concepts as having their own truck is
traditionally important to many drivers. The willingness
to drive several trucks is, however, heavily dependent
on the operating range. In the short-distance segment,
drivers are much more willing to drive various vehicles,
while this willingness falls sharply particularly in inter-
national long-distance transport.
On the whole, social aspects tend to predominate in
the apprentices view when it comes to the reasons for
their professions poor image. Apprentices single out
above all the family-unfriendly working hours as well as
the inability to spend regular leisure time with friends.
Definition of the driver types
Various driver types were identified on the basis of
the expert interviews. This typology provides the basis
for a better description of drivers motivation and key
 A
Traffic development
Trends & Outlook

The first ZF study on the future of transport (ZF Zukunftsstudie
FERNFAHRER) identified the basic trends and general framework
behind the development of the transport and logistics markets. These
factors continue to shape long-distance road haulage. They deter-
mine the challenges facing the industrys further development and,
in turn, the future working environment of professional drivers.
Trends & Outlook
Traffic development in freight transport
Among all modes of transport, freight transport activity will
continue to increase through 2030 following the interim
downturn resulting from the economic crisis. Road transport,
in particular, will return to growth very quickly. The dynamic
growth in traffic will, however, lose momentum for all modes
of transport compared to the past.
Enhanced efficiency in road haulage
The truck has already become much more efficient in the
past decade. However, additional technical and organizational
innovation potential exists. This includes the permanent
usage of longer road haulage vehicles, taking into account
the results from the long-truck field trial.
Foreign commercial vehicles
Eastern European common carriers have gained ground
with regard to the transport shares in long-distance haulage
on German highways. The German road haulage industry in
particular, as well as common carriers from Western Europe,
have to deal with shrinking market shares.
Vehicle safety, working and social conditions
A breach of the laws governing driving personnel is identified
in one in five German trucks checked at present; this mainly
includes breaches of driving times and rest periods. In the
case of vehicles from Eastern Europe, more than one in five
checked vehicles has a technical fault and one in ten vehicles
has problems with securing the load.
Drivers license and professional driver qualification
In the recent past, the number of truck drivers licenses
issued has fallen substantially in Germany. By contrast,
the number of acquired initial training qualifications under
Directive 2003/59/EC or the Professional Driver Qualification
Act (BKrFQG) has increased sharply. In this respect,
virtually all drivers opt for the accelerated initial qualification
at present.

State of roads and underfinancing of

n t
transport infrastructure

e ve l o p m e
Traffic D
Inferior roads increasingly indicate the underfinancing of the
road infrastructure. Individual stretches of roads and bridges
in the trunk-road network have already had to be closed or

a l C o n d i t i o ns can only be used with restrictions. The government is planning

Gener
a range of measures, including extending truck tolls to raise
additional funding for the required road maintenance.

8 9
 A 1 Traffic development
Traffic development
in freight transport

Traffic Development in Figure 1:

Forecast of transport activity in the EU27 to 20303
Rail and inland waterways will also
supplement the truck in future
Freight Transport 4,000
As a trend, the transport activity of rail and inland waterways
will also increase through 2030 without, however, producing
3,500
tangible shifts in the modal split in the process. Both modes
3,000
of transport will continue to handle substantial quantities of

Billion ton kilometers

Traffic areas and peoples living space have always been spiraling competitive pressure in logis-
2,500
freight in certain transport segments (e.g. long-haul bulk
2,000
competing against each other and this situation will not tics and the ongoing Europe-wide dereg-
1,500
freight transport) and will therefore be a major factor in taking
ulation and harmonization of the trans- the strain off roads. A sustainable integrated freight transport
change in the coming years. For this reason, it is not port sector. In addition, the markets
1 1,000
system cannot afford to ignore these effects. However, rail and
possible to randomly build up transport capacities on have not yet fully recovered from the 500
inland waterways are less suited to other transport tasks, such
the roads, railroads, or waterways. In order to be able 2008/2009 financial and economic 0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 as delivery in the field or extremely time-critical consignments.
crises: Key lead economic indicators,
to cope with the transport volume, all three modes of Road haulage Rail Inland vessel

primarily gross value added, are set to
transport will be indispensable in the future. perform less dynamically in future than
had been expected prior to the crisis.
This also has repercussions in terms of
photo: Thomas Kppers
Medium-term return to growth in German road haulage
2
The shrinking road haulage market over the past few years is
likely a response to short-term, recession-related effects. The
Combined transport, i.e. transporting standardized load units,
especially containers, will continue to grow, in the main run on
rail and inland waterways. Since the quantities transported in
combined transport depend in particular on the development

freight transport, which will grow more
slowly than forecast before the crisis. At
the same time, the year 2030 has now
established itself as the new forecast
year at both the national and European
levels, which aligns with the customary
15-year time frame for transport fore-
casts.
Transport activity will increase
further in the long term
The European Commission predicts
another sharp increase in freight trans-
impact of the recession can still be felt. Nonetheless, both the of sea container transport, the forecast developments in sea
current medium-term forecast of the Federal Office for Goods transport through 2030 expect combined transport to double
Transport (BAG) and the mileage estimates from the current over the same period.4 However, the additional parallel growth
infrastructure cost calculation of the Federal Ministry of Trans- in road haulage also means that the modal split in surface
port and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) predict a return to growth transport will hardly change at all as a result of the increase
for the German road haulage industry from 2014 onwards (see in combined transport.
Figure 2). The mileage of trucks (at present) subject to road
tolls (+ 13.5%) should increase roughly in line with transport
Figure 2:
activity in the entire road haulage segment (+ 11.8%) over the Medium-term forecast of road haulage in Germany5
period 2013 through 2017. In other words, structural changes
in productivity in road haulage are not expected over this
800 35,000
period. 34,000
700
33,000

Billion vehicle kilometers

600
port activity throughout the European 32,000
500

Billion tkm
31,000
Union by 2030. Compared with 2010,
400 30,000
transport activity will increase by around 29,000
300
35 %, with road haulage set to account 28,000
200
Recovery of markets in the wake of for the highest sector growth of 44 %. 27,000
100
26,000
the financial and economic crises At European level as well, the pace of
0 25,000
The development trends for the trans- growth is, however, below past expec- 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

port and logistics market forecast in the tations: Actual total growth in freight Road (tkm) Rail (tkm)
Waterway (tkm) Driving performance
first ZF study on the future of transport transport in the EU27 was still 44 % (trucks subject to road tolls on federal highways)

(ZF Zukunftsstudie FERNFAHRER) from 1990 to 2010. Road haulage grew

have gained added momentum. This
is not only thanks to the upturn in the
economy, but, in particular, to the
by more than 80 % between 1990 and
2010 primarily as a result of EU en-
largement to the east (see Figure 1).
1 Cf. ZF study on the future of transport FERNFAHRER (2012), p. 10 ff. and European
Commission (2014), Section 7.
2 Cf. MWP/IHS/Uniconsult/CML (2013), July 2013, p. 14.
3 Cf. Grandjot/Bernecker (2014), p. 97.
4 Cf. BMVBS (2013a).
5 Own graphic based on BMVBS (2013b), p. 24 (own interpolation for the years 2014
through 2016) and BMVI (2014), p. 117.

10 11
 A 2 Traffic development
Increased Efficiency
in Road Haulage

Increased Efficiency
in Road Haulage
Initial results of the long-truck field trial
A change in the permissible vehicle dimensions could further
help decisively improve the quality and performance of road
Companies in the road-haulage sector haulage. This is confirmed by the initial interim results from
have been subjected to spiraling the long-truck field trial in Germany, which points to efficiency
gains of between 25 % and 30 % versus analyzed ratios, and
price pressure over the past few years. thus appear to confirm expectations.8 In mid-2014, 38 compa-
Long-distance haulage in particular, nies with 72 vehicles will be taking part in a field trial. The
which is characterized by fierce inter- representativity of the field trial is, however, still limited by the
restricted positive network: Only around 6 800 km of the total
national competition, is dependent on

photo: ATDynamics
12 800 km highway network can be used with a long truck at
the ongoing consolidation and extension present; including the approved stretches of the secondary
of the efficiency gains that were achieved road network, this results in a total network length of around

once markets and prices opened up.
Substantial efficiency gain in road haulage
Transport intensity tends to be used as a benchmark for
the efficiency of (road) haulage, i.e., the development of the
relationship between freight transport activity and gross
9 300 km on which the long truck may be tested until 2017. In
May 2014, the Federal Constitutional Court ruled favorably on
Figure 3: the admissibility of the long-truck field trial, thus allowing it to
Development of vehicle-related transport intensity6
be continued until 2017 as planned.
36
Vehicle dimensions in the European context

Truck kilometers per EUR 1,000 GDP

35
domestic product or gross value added. While the require- 35.0 35.1 Despite the positive interim results of the field trial in Germany
34
ments of modern industrial production ensure, on the one and comparable findings in other European countries, the
33.7
33 33.5
hand, that growth in goods-related transport activity (ton 33.2 likelihood is that there will be no European legal approval of
32 32.6
kilometer) is outperforming the economy, road haulage has 32.1 32.1
the long truck in international haulage as part of the upcoming
32.0
31.7
managed, on the other hand, to substantially increase the 31
31.1
amendment of Directive 96/53/EC on vehicle dimensions and
30.7
efficiency of vehicle usage over the past few years. In 2000, 30 weights. The European Parliament voted against a correspon-
30.0
a truck still covered 35 kilometers for every EUR 1 000 of 29 ding proposal from the European Commission in 2014. How-
gross domestic product generated in Germany. By 2012, this 28 ever, a moderate extension of vehicles was approved in order
figure had fallen to 30 kilometers the equivalent of an effi- 27 to improve aerodynamics and safety, and to facilitate transport
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
ciency increase of around 14 % even though the volumes of 45-inch containers in combined transport.
transported by road in Germany increased from 3 244 million
tons to 3 307 million tons (see Figure 3) in the same period. This efficiency increase reflects the positive effect from the
efforts to improve vehicle utilization in (part load) freight trans-
port, the reduction in the share of empty-running kilometers in
long-distance road haulage from 15.3 % (2000) to 10.4 %
(2012)7, and the impact of groupage and general cargo net-
works that enhance efficiency. Perfectly coordinated groupage
or the increasing industrialization of road haulage in particular
enables drivers to spend a greater portion of their working time
actually driving. This increases both personal and vehicle
6 Own calculation and graphic based on data from the Federal Statistical Office (gross domestic product) and BGL e.V. (mileage). productivity.
7 Cf. BGL (2013).
8 Cf. Initiative fr Innovative Nutzfahrzeuge (2013), p. 12ff. [Initiative for innovative commercial vehicles]

12 13
 A 3
A 4
Traffic development Traffic development
Foreign Commercial Vehicles Infrastructure Underfinancing

Foreign Commercial Vehicles in Germany State of Roads and Underfinancing

The trend towards a shift in the share of traffic from German
and Western European common carriers to companies based
in Eastern Europe has continued. This phenomenon has been
apparent in international road haulage since the opening of
the transport markets and, in particular, since the commence-
ment of EU enlargement to the east. This can be seen from
the toll statistics for German highways in the five-year period
from 2007 through 2012 (see Figure 4).
of Transport Infrastructure
despite the new version of the European legal arrangements
governing cabotage in 2009 Eastern European common
carriers, particularly from Poland, Romania, Hungary, Bulgar- State of the road infrastructure
ia, and Slovakia, managed to noticeably gain market shares worsened dramatically
in Germany in the same period. The market share of common The number of roads in Germany requiring maintenance work Figure 5:
Snapshot of the condition of federal transport routes in 201211
carriers from these countries for road haulage subject to tolls has been increasing since the 1970s. Especially over the past
on German highways is now more than 15.4 %. This is more few years, the state of the transport infrastructure has once
Score Evaluation Highways Federal roads
than twice as high as the market share of Austrian, Dutch, again drastically worsened. The ever-increasing backlog of
and Italian common carriers, which now jointly account for maintenance work has meant that infrastructure shortcomings 1.001.49 very good 70.5 % 51.5 %

Substantial market share losses of German and just 6.4 % share of the market in Germany. Like the German pose a long-standing, critical challenge for road transport.
1.503.49 good to sufficient 13.0 % 13.7 %
Western European common carriers common carriers, they are among the losers in the current The result is accident black spots, traffic jams, speed restric-
Since the completion of the EU enlargement to the east, market dynamics9. tions as well as roads and bridges being partially or fully 3.504.49
poor
8.5 % 15.1 %
(warning figure reached)
German common carriers have neither managed to stem closed. According to the latest traffic investment report from
very poor
4.505.00 8.0 % 19.5 %
the continuing loss of market shares, nor prevent an absolute the German government, more than 15 % of highways, more (threshold exeeded)
Figure 4:
decrease in mileage in long-distance road haulage. The Development of mileage of heavy trucks on highways by than 30 % of federal roads, and more than 10 % of bridges
mileage of German trucks fell overall by more than 1.3 billion nationalities10 are in a state that requires short or medium-term restoration Score Evaluation Bridges

kilometers (7.3 %) between 2007 and 2012. By contrast measures, i.e., they have reached the so-called warning 1.01.4 very good structural condition 4.0 %

Poland 553,084 level. Even the threshold has been exceeded with 8 % of 1.51.9 good structural condition 9.8 %
274,861
Romania highways and 20 % of federal roads, i.e., requiring immediate 2.02.4 satisfactory structural condition 39.4 %
Hungary 164,928
measures to ensure the infrastructure can continue to be 2.52.9 adequate structural condition 33.3 %
Bulgaria 152,605
used (see Figure 5). 3.03.4 inadequate structural condition 11.8 %
Slovakia 117,444
3.54.0 insufficient structural condition 1.7 %
Lithuania 78,697

Czech Republic 78,457

Slowenia 47,862

Italy -120,690
The Netherlands -260,834
Austria -280,263
Germany -1,308,261

-2,000,000 -1,500,000 -1,000,000 -500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000

1,000 vehicle kilometers
photo: Norbert Bwing

09 Own calculations and evaluations based on BAG (2007a) and BAG (2012a).
10 The toll statistics record the country in which the particular vehicle is registered. They do not include whether the vehicle is being used on behalf of a German or a foreign forwarding agent,
whether this involves source-destination transport or transit transport, or whether the common carrier is part of a company network with headquarters in another country (also in Germany).
11 Own graphic based on: German government (2014), p. 197 ff.

14 15
 A 5
Traffic development Traffic development
Infrastructure Underfinancing Vehicle Safety, Working
and Social Conditions

For the classified roads alone there is an annual
shortfall in excess of EUR 3 billion
The underfinancing of transport routes not only affects the
backlog of maintenance work and restoration management.
The calculations produced by the Daehre Commission in 2012
The government is also planning to extend the Vehicle Safety, Working and
truck toll to close funding gaps
Unless the existing funding gaps can be closed quickly, the Social Conditions
condition of the infrastructure is bound to get worse over the
short term. Hence, various measures for generating additional
funds for the road infrastructure are predicted for the current
legislative period. These measures include extending the truck
toll to vehicles from 7.5 t permissible vehicle weight and a
gradual inclusion of all federal roads in the road network
where truck tolls are mandatory. Toll obligations on all federal
roads will primarily have an impact on those common carriers
who focus their business mainly on regional and short-
distance transport as they cover a smaller share of kilometers

photo: Thomas Kppers

also show substantial funding shortfalls with the implementa- on highways than common carriers in international long-
tion of additional new construction and extension measures distance transport. At the same time, according to the BMVIs
on federal trunk roads, interurban, and district roads as well latest transport infrastructure costs calculation, the toll rates
as with operating federal trunk roads. For these three road for heavy trucks on highways must fall sharply so that com-
categories alone excluding municipal roads the shortfall mon carriers that mainly operate on these roads can benefit
comes to EUR 3.35 billion a year (see Figure 6). from notable financial savings.13
Implementation of the Regulation on Driving Times Breaches of the law governing driving personnel are
and Rest Periods the main issue affecting German trucks
Figure 6:
Underfinancing of federal, interurban, and district roads12 The provisions of the Regulation on Driving Times and Rest The majority of breaches found on German trucks during
Periods (EC) No. 561/2006 became mandatory in the European checks by the Federal Office for Long-Distance Goods Transport
Federal trunk road
Union on April 11, 2007. The Regulation governs permissible (BAG) relate to non-compliance with the rules relating to the law
Interurban District
(EUR billion)
Federal Federal roads roads
Total driving times as well as the length and sequences of the pre- governing driving personnel (specifically driving times and rest
highways roads scribed breaks and rest periods. The provisions in the Regula- periods). Virtually 80 % of problems relate to the law governing
Requirements Requirements p.a. 1.65 0.7 2.35 tion on Driving Times and Rest Periods, where compliance is driving personnel (see Figure 7). This is ultimately also indicative
plan measures
Underfinancing p.a. 0.8 0.8 documented and monitored via the digital EU recording equip- of the substantial pressure to succeed and become more effi-
Requirements p.a. 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.0 ment (tachograph), have substantially increased the business cient that is put on the German road-haulage industry and, in
Backlog
Underfinancing p.a. 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.0 planning requirements in commercial road haulage. One primary turn, on professional drivers. The specific breaches of the law
Requirements p.a. 2.45 1.9 1.65 1.3 7.3
Restoration and reason for this is the current lack of truck parking spaces along governing driving personnel relate predominantly to non-
operation Underfinancing p.a. 0.8 0.45 0.3 1.55
highways where drivers can spend breaks and rest periods. compliance with driving times, breaks, and rest periods under
Requirements p.a. 4.5 2.9 1.95 1.5 10.65
Total Additionally, the frequent use of drivers to complete non- Regulations (EC) No. 561/2006, (EEC) No. 3820/85, or the
Underfinancing p.a. 2.1 0.75 0,5 3.35
driver-related activities (e.g. loading and unloading) makes it respective regulations of the AETR. Approximately 40 % of
more difficult to comply with the social provisions since these breaches of the law governing driving personnel committed by
times are not deemed breaks or rest periods according to the drivers of German trucks relate, however, to regulatory issues,
Regulation (EC) No. 561/2006 and, as a result, less time is to Regulation (EEC) 3821/85, and the relevant AETR regulations
effectively available for driving. relating to the tachograph. As regards the tachograph, particular
problems include the absence or improper usage of record
sheets or the drivers card as well as the failure to certify the
days to be excluded.14

12 Own graphic based on: Commission Zukunft der Verkehrsinfrastrukturfinanzierung [Future of transport infrastructure financing]
(2012), p. 19.
13 Cf. BMVI (2014), p. 136 ff.
14 Cf. BAG (2012).

16 17
 A 6
Traffic development Traffic development
Vehicle Safety, Working Drivers License and Professional
and Social Conditions Driver Qualification

Safety-related breaches are the main issue Drivers License and Professional
affecting vehicles from Eastern Europe
With regard to the law governing driving personnel, the Driver Qualification
problem rates for vehicles from Central and Eastern
European countries (CEE)15 are much lower than with Western
European trucks (see Figure 7). However, the high number
of technical vehicle safety and load securing breaches is a Directive 2003/59/EC introduced the certification according to the BKrFQG obtaining a truck drivers license. While in

photo: Claudia Wild

striking feature of vehicles from the CEE countries: More than professional driver qualification on Sep- becomes binding for all professional 2009 despite the economic downturn
30 % of breaches relate to technical problems on the vehicle tember 10, 2009 as a new qualification drivers. Transitional arrangements can be a very large number of truck drivers
in case of vehicles from CEE countries and another 21 % requirement for professional drivers. It is granted until September 10, 2016 simply licenses were issued once again, the
to load securing. being implemented in Germany through to bring in line the validity period of the figure fell sharply in 2010 and has stag-
the Professional Drivers Qualification Act drivers license and professional driver nated at a low level ever since. The falling
(BKrFQG). The professional driver qualifi- qualification. number of issued truck drivers licenses
Figure 7:
Results of 2013 roadside check statistics from the Federal Office cation is mandatory for every person who contrasts with the overall number of valid
for LongDistance Goods Transport by Road16 drives a truck for commercial purposes. It Truck drivers license acquisition truck drivers licenses that continues to
Vehicle origin is designed to enrich the drivers expertise dropped substantially since 2010 rise in Germany. In 2013, more than 19
Germany EU15
Central and and thus help make being a driver a more Substantial changes to the way a drivers million people held a valid truck drivers
Eastern Europe
attractive profession. The qualification to license is obtained happened following license (see Figure 8). However, this
Law governing driving personnel
become a professional driver focuses in the introduction of the professional driver figure also includes numerous individuals
Checked vehicles 85,269 28,136 67,654
particular on teaching the basics of the qualification in 2009 as an additional who acquired an old class 3 drivers
Vehicles with a problem 17,939 5,961 8,951
service and logistics industry, driving and requirement for becoming a professional license, which not only includes the
Proportion of problems 21.0 % 21.2 % 13.2 %

Proportion of problems overall 79.2 % 73.0 % 47.8 %

rest periods, safety-relevant knowledge, driver, coupled with the virtually simulta- current class B, but also the classes C1
Technical roadside inspection load securing, and energy-saving driving. neous abolition of basic military service and C1E. There is no reason to assume
Checked vehicles 25,463 8,349 28,639 On September 10, 2014 the acquisition of in Germany as an important route for that everyone with a valid truck drivers
Vehicles with a problem 2,112 917 5,781 license is interested in working as a
Proportion of problems 8.3 % 11.0 % 20.2 % professional driver. In addition, the own-
Figure 8:
Proportion of problems overall 9.3 % 11.2 % 30.9 %
Truck drivers licenses issued and total number in Germany17 ers of old drivers licenses need a first
Load securing
further qualification certificate according
Checked vehicles 28,799 13,597 30,023 25,000,000 300,000
to the Professional Driver Qualification

Total number of drivers licenses (truck)

Vehicles with a problem 2,585 1,292 3,978

Proportion of problems 9.0 % 9.5 % 13.2 % 20,000,000 260,000

Act by September 10, 2016 at the latest,

Issued drivers licenses (truck)

Proportion of problems overall 11.4 % 15.8 % 21.3 % even when making use of all transitional
Total problems 22,636 8,170 18, 710 15,000,000 220,000 provisions, if they want to drive a truck
for commercial purposes. This means
10,000,000 180,000
that the number of potential professional
5,000,000 140,000
drivers is much lower than the figure of
total drivers licenses currently in circula-
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
100,000 tion.
Total number Issuances

15 These are the countries Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania.
16 Source: Unpublished special analysis Straenverkehrskontrollen [Roadside transport checks] from the German Federal Office for the Transport of Goods for the ETM
publishing house 2013. 17 Own analysis and graphic based on figures from the Federal Motor Transport Authority (2013), different pages.

18 19
 Traffic development
Drivers License and Professional

photo: kalafoto_Fotolia
Driver Qualification

Virtually all drivers choose the accelerated certification) has remained stubbornly low at around 1 % of
initial qualification tests taken through 2013.
For every truck drivers license obtained since September 10,
2009, the BKrFQG stipulates that the professional driver Compared with the drivers license statistics, the test statistics
qualification is also a prerequisite for actually driving a truck according to the BKrFQG also show, however, that far more
for commercial purposes. The test must be taken at the com- truck drivers licenses are still being issued in Germany than
Today, the truck drivers license is obtained petent Chamber of Industry and Commerce. In this respect, qualification certificates are provided according to the BKrFQG
primarily to drive heavy trucks candidates can choose between the standard initial qualifica- since manual workers, for instance, are exempt from the
Most truck drivers licenses are currently obtained for the tion and an accelerated initial qualification (a minimum age professional driver qualification.
class CE (tractor/trailer combinations and articulated vehicles), of 21 years applies to heavy trucks in classes C and CE).
which means the holder can drive long-distance haulage
vehicles or large trucks used for short-radius distribution and The test statistics, since the BKrFQG came into force in
regional distribution. The first-time acquisition of a truck driv- Germany, show that prospective professional drivers almost
ers license virtually always involves the extension of an always opt for the accelerated initial qualification. The propor-
existing drivers license (e.g. for passenger cars); very rarely tion of new tests taken every year as part of the accelerated
is the truck drivers license obtained at the same time as initial qualification has increased by more than 25 % from
class B (passenger cars or vehicles with a permissible total around 11 500 in 2010 to 14 500 in 2013 (see Figure 10).
weight under 3.5 t). The reissuance of an existing, but no The share of switchers (individuals with an existing initial
longer valid (expired) drivers license plays a role particularly qualification in the bus sector that want to switch to trucks)
with the classes C1E (vehicle combinations up to 12 t) and and lateral entrants (individuals with existing specialized
photo: Volker Wiciok

CE (tractor/trailer combinations and articulated vehicles) with

time-limited validity. By contrast, a foreign drivers license is
Figure 10:
very rarely exchanged for a German license affecting only Professional driver qualification (freight transport) in Germany19
around 5 % of cases (see Figure 9).
2010 2011 2012 2013

Total Passed Total Passed Total Passed Total Passed

Figure 9:
Initial qualification 35 34 66 64 97 96 116
Issuance of truck drivers licenses in Germany in 201218
Initial qualification
0 0 2 2 1 1 2
Lateral entrants
Issuance/extension Exchange of foreign
Initial issuance Extension Reissuance Total Share Initial qualification
under allow. cond. drivers license 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Switchers

C1 20 1,648 100 83 598 2 449 2.3 % Accelerated initial qualification 11,537 9,452 11,212 9,383 12,828 10,782 14,446

Accelerated initial qualification

C1E 214 3,529 246 8,617 1,821 14,427 13.4 % 10 10 20 20 27 27 19
Lateral entrants
C 24 15,337 876 379 1,127 17,743 16.5 %
Accelerated initial qualification
168 134 133 103 149 119 144
CE 105 51,250 7,742 11,423 2,462 72,982 67.8 % Switchers

T otal 363 71,764 8,964 20,502 6,008 107,601 100.0 %

Share 0.3 % 66.7 % 8.3 % 19.1 % 5.6 % 100,0 %

18 Own graphic based on data from the Federal Motor Transport Authority (2013), p. 47. 19 Own graphic based on DIHK (2010), DIHK (2011), DIHK (2012), DIHK (2013)

20 21
 B
The Experts View
Objective of the
Expert Interviews

Objective of the
Expert Interviews

As in the first study, the industry experts were tasked to identify and comment on highly
relevant developments in the subject area, and present their own views on the future
situation. While the first study analyzed developments throughout road haulage as a
whole, this study focuses on the current and future situation of driving personnel. In this
respect, the expert views on the current and future driving personnel situation from a
micro and macroeconomic perspective and the identification of key areas and need
Only two years are in for action for dealing with the driving personnel issues proved particularly important.
bet-ween the first ZF study
30 detailed expert interviews were conducted based on an interview script which
on the future of transport included questions focusing on Driving personnel situation in the future, Operating
(ZF Zukunftsstudie profiles and motivation of professional drivers, and Performance of professional
Fernfahrer) and this drivers. An overview of the interview partners can be found on page 90. Steps were
taken to ensure that key target groups were represented when selecting the experts.
new edition. However,
Company representatives from the segments of part and full loads (scheduled transport
some parameters have and tramp shipping) and groupage were interviewed along with association represen-
changed, some trends tatives, shipping agents, employee and employer representatives, drivers, vehicle

have come true or have
even intensified. Insiders
with different perspectives
regarding the industry give
manufacturers and bodybuilders, politicians, trade press representatives, and
professional association representatives. The interview script is available for
download at www.zf-zukunftsstudie.de.
In addition to insights on the current and future situation of driving personnel, the

t u re
expert interviews provide a sound basis for preparing the questionnaires for the driving

u
an insight into the current
th e F
Focus on
personnel survey. In this way, key aspects from an expert perspective were also taken
framework conditions. into account and empirically checked in the study.

K n ow led g e
Insider cts
str y s P rospe
on the Ind u
22 23
 B 1
Driver Types and Operating Areas
The questions surrounding how a poten-
tial shortage of drivers can be eliminated
or the occupation of truck driver made
more attractive can only be answered
where clear evidence of motivation is
available that explains why individuals
work as professional drivers or would
like to do so in future. It is clear that
different motivations prompt individuals
to work in certain professions. There-
fore, it was also important to analyze
whether such kinds of individual charac-
teristics can be grouped and different
driver types established. Taking these
grouped attitudes and motivations into
account is the only way to develop, for
instance, concepts aimed at junior
drivers based on specific target group
needs.
Sustainable motivation
what animates drivers
in their profession.
Four driver types can be derived from
the expert interviews, which are present-
ed below. In this respect, the experts
emphasized the different motivations
regarding the driving profession in
particular. It should also be stressed
that this does not involve differentiating
between these types, but rather aims
to uncover key areas of motivation and
interest that tend to differ greatly across
the individual types.
24
Accordingly, the four driver types should
primarily help describe the current, but
also the future drivers. These ideal types
are not expected to change over time.
However, the proportions of the individu-
al types will likely shift substantially in
the future.
Type 1 The Called: Represents
the classic, full-blooded long-distance
driver. He is the King of the Road,
who as an individualist is interested in
the job, wants to get to know foreign
countries, enjoys being his own boss,
and predominantly carries out the
varied everyday working routine
autonomously. He is also willing to
accept personal restrictions in return,
such as limited social contact, re-
stricted medical coverage, or low pay
in relation to the amount of time spent
working. Tramp shipping, in particular,
with frequently changing loading and
unloading points is especially attrac-
tive to him since it brings variety
and diversity to the job. He attaches
importance to his own vehicle, i.e.
a vehicle exclusively used by him,
which he customizes accordingly for
the time spent on the road. He was
often socialized in a driver-friendly
environment (family, circle of friends)
where the romanticism of long-
distance drivers is still nurtured. In
certain cases, he got to know different
The Experts View
Driver Types and
Operating Areas
operating conditions as a co-driver in his youth. He is particular affinity or emotional bond to the job; he sees the
(still) able to cope with the dissonance between vision and profession of driver as essentially a job like any other.
reality, which is apparent from the experts perspective. That said, he reliably carries out the job. He also has a
technology-related interest in the truck. The vehicle itself
Type 2 The Committed: Represents the interested, though tends to be a machine for him that is used for
long-distance driver who likes the driving element of the production purposes. Thus, he has no problems sharing
profession and tends to also be interested in the technology the vehicle with other drivers or switching vehicles.
that goes into a truck. Like type 1, he appreciates the
advantages of the occupation, especially the variety and Type 4 The Accidental: For him, the occupation of driver
the sensed autonomy in structuring the working day. Over- is often the only alternative of generating income. Generally
all, he enjoys the job but tends to spend less time socializ- he will have already gained prior experience in several jobs.
ing in a driver-friendly environment, and may also have There is no intrinsic motivation for him and the only incen-
moved into the profession as a lateral entrant. Once em- tive for doing the job is the prospect of a secure employ-
ployed as a professional driver, his loyalty to the job is then ment contract. In this respect, there are very few opportuni-
unwavering. However, he is not permanently willing to ties for promoting loyalty towards the company or the
accept all the drawbacks associated with the job, particular- industry. As soon as this type discovers alternatives with
ly the long periods away from home. As a driver, he tends fewer negative aspects, he is basically willing to move.
to aim for a more plannable working day than type 1. He
also appreciates his own vehicle but is more likely to make
compromises if other operating conditions can be improved
as a result.
Type 3 The Rationalist: Above all, he appreciates the job
security and the sensed autonomy when structuring the
working day. A certain intrinsic basic motivation to do the
job exists. Yet the excitement of getting to know foreign
countries or experiencing a great deal of variety is not
commonplace. Rather planning reliability, predictability, and
regular, where possible, daily periods at home are crucially
important to him. Nevertheless, he tends to have made a
conscious decision to do the job as a lateral entrant after
gaining experience in other segments. He weighs up fairly
rationally the combination of benefits that he gains from
working as a driver and the remuneration he receives,
and compares this with other jobs. There is seldom any
25
 B 2 The Experts View
photo: Karl-Heinz Augustin

Shortage of Drivers

The current operating areas of professional drivers can be A 12-field matrix can be produced using the two categories Shortage of Drivers: Now You Have Him
subdivided by distance into short-distance, regional, national, operating distance and operating type. This matrix describes
and international long-distance transport. A distinction can be the operating areas of a professional driver that are possible. Now You Dont - Now You Have Him...
drawn between tramp shipping and scheduled transport based In accordance with the defining characteristics of the afore-
on operating type and regularity. In addition, there is a fairly mentioned four ideal types and the characteristics and condi-
new operating type, which basically equates to scheduled tions of the operating areas, the ideal types 1-3 can be as-
transport, but is integrated into systems. These systems are signed to the operating areas. The assignment is done for the Most experts already see a shortage of drivers. Some of This situation is, however, not the same in all regions and
comparable with industrial production and can be described areas where the characteristics of the particular driver types them describe the situation as serious when referring to the not even in all operating areas. The aforementioned ratio of
by extensive standardization and finely tuned processes. The and the requirements of the particular operating area largely current situation but do not yet see any pronounced short- unemployed professional drivers to vacancies can be used
system operating area thus joins the tramp and scheduled coincide (cf. Figure 11). age at present. Regardless of how the driving personnel as an indicator of the extent to which each region is affect-
operating areas. In terms of content, this depends largely on situation pans out over time, the experts obviously believe ed. In Baden-Wrttemberg, for instance, the ratio of unem-
the industrialization of transport and differs from classic Groupage stands for the that the number of professional drivers in Germany that ployed drivers to vacancies is just 1.4. In the experts opin-
scheduled transport, for instance, with respect to the consist- increasing industrialization can and are willing to be employed is too small. ion, Baden-Wrttemberg is also a region where the shortage
ent break of the driver-vehicle link and the degree of equip- of the transport industry. of drivers is more pronounced than, say, in Berlin, for exam-
ment standardization. In this respect it is now apparent that figures from the ple (ratio 5.4).23 Structurally strong regions tend to face
Type 4 was deliberately not assigned here since this type Federal Employment Agency suggest there is no shortage greater challenges than structurally weak areas in terms
could basically be used in all areas because of the lack of own in terms of too few potential employees competing for an of driving personnel acquisition a situation that may also
Figure 11:
Driver types and operating areas preferences, but primarily due to the absence of alternatives. excessive number of vacancies or reported jobs. In July ultimately be linked with work alternatives and regional
The absence of any option for promoting loyalty means per- 2014 there were 4.5 unemployed professional drivers for salary levels.
ST RT Nat. LDT Internat. LDT manent retention is unlikely with this type. each vacancy on a nationwide average in Germany (cf.
Fig. 12). Accordingly, there is technically no shortage of
Tramp Type 2 Type 1/Type 2 Type 1/Type 2 Type 1 Figure 12:
professional drivers.20 Potential staff and reported jobs
Scheduled Type 3 Type 3 Type 2/Type 3 Type 1/Type 2/Type 3
Persons
However, the experts experiences contradict these figures.
40,000
System Type 3 Type 3 Type 3 Type 2/Type 3 For the reasons explained above, it is perfectly acceptable
35,000
to discuss a current shortage. Nonetheless, such an asser-
30,000
tion also expressly includes the quality of driving personnel.
25,000
As early as in 2007 the German Federal Office for the
20,000
Transport of Goods (BAG) made reference to a quality
15,000
shortcoming among drivers.21 There are insufficient numbers

?
22,529
10,000
of drivers in Germany who, on the one hand, are willing to 5,000 11,113
permanently accept the professions conditions and, on the 0
other, have the necessary skills. At present, far fewer indi- Unemployed Reported jobs

viduals are returning to the profession than are leaving. If Classification of occupations (KldB) 2010: 5,212 =
Professional drivers (freight transport/truck)
you include all additions, there is a maximum of 15 000 Source: http://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de (01/2014)

individuals joining the profession each year while around

25 000 individuals leave annually.22

20 BA (2014), Worksheet 2.1, July 2014.

21 Cf. BAG (2007), p. 5.
22 Cf. ZF study on the future of transport (ZF-Zukunftsstudie FERNFAHRER)
(2012), p. 40.
23 Cf. BA (2014), Worksheet 2.11 and Worksheet 2.14, July 2014.

26 27
 The Experts View
Shortage of Drivers

Consensus does exist among the experts in relation to the Committed drivers know which
aforementioned operating areas: The greatest problems
Schleswig- transport companies are perceived
Holstein of finding driving personnel relate to international long-
Hamburg distance transport. Here, drivers spend a very long time as attractive employers.
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania
on the road and the opportunities to keep in touch with
Bremen their social sphere are extremely limited. Additionally,
remuneration usually bears little relationship to the work (type 2). Basically, the experts assess ties in each individual company for tion became mandatory under the
Berlin
done, although this situation basically applies to all oper- the situation as follows: As the transport acquiring and retaining driving person- Professional Drivers Qualification Act
Lower Saxony
ating areas. In the experts view, fewer and fewer people distance increases, the driving person- nel, and hence tackling the shortage (BKrFQG) in September 2009. Previous-
Saxony- Brandenburg are willing to accept these conditions (type 1). At present, nel problems worsen. The distance of drivers on an individual company ly, the industry therefore had very little
Anhalt
the situation is less critical in the short-distance segment component must be supplemented by basis. This also includes consistently opportunity to appreciate that the invest-
North Rhine-Westphalia even if a differentiated analysis is required. The possibility other operating conditions. However, training young, in-house drivers. ment in training young staff translates to
of spending rest periods at home represents a major clear differentiations with no overlaps an investment in the companys future.
Saxony
Thuringia argument in favor of this operating area for many drivers, are not possible here either since the Little commitment to training
Hesse the experts report. This applies in particular to the situa- operating conditions are too varied. Training young, in-house staff by the
tion in the partial and full load segment. Nonetheless, the experts tend to see industry is crucially important as it relates
tramp shipping with greater problems to the shortage of drivers. This commit-
Rhineland-Palatinate
In terms of the shortage of than scheduled transport, due to the ment to training is traditionally poor.
the Saar-
land Bavaria
drivers, it has to be differentiated lower return-home planning reliability. Whereas in the past the Armed Forces
between quality and region. Trips that are integrated into a system provided large numbers of drivers ready
of industrialized transport may also for the job (individuals with truck drivers
Baden-
Wurttemberg In the experts opinion there is a lack of drivers in distribu- constitute international transport with license) (cf. p.19, Chapter A), this source
tion transport (pre- and onward carriage) in groupage net- regular working hours and at-home has now largely dried up. In addition to
works. This is due, on the one hand, to the long working periods for the driving personnel if the the drivers license, another qualifica-
hours and, on the other, to the increasing requirements driver is switched at defined points.
placed on these drivers in relation to information technology, The experts therefore also see industri-
Unemployed/Jobs according to federal states and the low remuneration (type 3). Regional transport also alization as an important core issue that
1.0 to 1.5 1.6 to 2.0 2.1 to 2.5 constitutes an attractive operating area for certain drivers as may at least partially resolve the driving
2.6 to 3.0 3.1 to 3.5 3.6 to 6 the advantages of regular, plannable at-home periods are personnel problem. Here, the target
combined with the advantages of a sensed autonomy group is type 3.

Finally, certain experts also pointed

out that currently some companies are
much less affected by the issue than on
average since they are regarded as
attractive employers, treat their driving
personnel with respect, and offer them
good working conditions. Such compa-
nies gain a reputation among drivers,

photo: Jan Bergrath

especially through Internet forums, as
attractive employers. In this respect,
it must of course be taken into account
that there are undoubtedly opportuni-

28 29
 The Experts View

photo: Karl-Heinz Augustin

Shortage of Drivers

The low apprenticeship quota is due
to structural reasons.
Overall, the experts largely agree that
the industry does not provide enough
training. The proportion of companies
providing apprenticeships in 2012
across the industry in Germany was
over 23 %, while in the Transport and
photo: Yuri Arcus_Fotolia
respect). Taking into account just the
new apprenticeship contracts signed
(just under 3 300 in 201226), there are
slightly less than 0.5 new apprentices for
each company with more than 20 em-
ployees. According to individual experts,
operators of mid-sized and large fleets
by contrast were already providing
apprenticeships, making any substan-
tial increases unlikely.
According to the experts, the second
The assumption of individual experts that those individuals
often start an apprenticeship to become a professional driver
who have already gained experience in other professions
requiring an apprenticeship or may have even failed, cannot
be confirmed by the figures from the Federal Institute for
Vocational Education and Training (BIBB). Just 12 % of
individuals starting an apprenticeship took part in another
vocational training course prior to starting their apprenticeship
and only 7 % had not successfully completed dual training
beforehand. Here, the structures are virtually the same
28
as with all professions requiring an apprenticeship.29
opportunities are improved as a result. Additional government
nent retention of trainees completing the professional driver
course and, second, some experts point to low motivation
for the driver profession among trainees completing the
course from publicly funded initiatives. Based on this, it must
be assumed that not all trainees completing the course will
actually be employed as professional drivers on a permanent
basis.
Regarding the issue of possible government funding, the
Vocational and Further Training Support Program run by the
BAG was highlighted as wholly positive. The apprenticeship

Warehousing sector of the economy it
was just around 11 % . There is broad
24
agreement among the experts regarding
the causes, with two issues emphasized
above all else. On the one hand, there
are the company structures which make
apprenticeships more difficult among the
small companies that tend to dominate
in terms of numbers. Of the just under
50 000 companies involved in commer-
cial road haulage, around 86 % have a
workforce of under 20 employees. An
apprenticeship is very difficult to imagine
considering the conditions in a road
haulage company. There are nearly
7 000 companies with more than 20
employees.25 Including all three years
of the apprenticeship, there were just
under 7 000 individuals training to
become a professional driver in 2012,
which translates to just one apprentice
for each road haulage company with
more than 20 employees (companies on
own account were not included in this
reason for low apprenticeship figures
is the possibilities of attracting junior
drivers. There are simply too few suita-
ble applicants for the apprenticeships
with various reasons apart from demo-
graphics. Most notably, experts cite the
professions image, while the operating
conditions and the expected remunera-
tion also play a role. Trainees motivation
is set out in detail in Chapter E.
In addition, the experts also referred to
the fact that starting the apprenticeship
at the age of 16 also proves problemat-
ic. Two years must then be bridged in
the first instance during which the
apprentices are unable to drive trucks.
Only two years after starting the course
can the practical component of the
apprenticeship actually begin. Trainees
must be highly motivated to get through
this period. Furthermore, apprentices
will have to wait to see if they are actual-
ly suited to driving in the first place.
Traditionally, professional driving is, however, not a classic funding in the area of first apprenticeship is not predominantly
occupation with apprenticeships. The industry has therefore seen as necessary or realistic.
always been reliant on lateral entrants. More than 80 % of
drivers were previously involved in another occupation.30 Even if the Professional Drivers Qualification Act worsens
The challenges of reaching this target group increased with the driving personnel situation in the short term, especially in
the introduction of the Professional Drivers Qualification Act the area of temporary drivers, the experts support its imple-
in 2009. In this area, the accelerated initial qualification clearly mentation. The resulting, assumed long-term benefits regard-
dominates, as the figures in Chapter 1 show. The experts also ing the level of training and enhanced image significantly
expect that the ratio between dual training and accelerated outweigh any short-term drawbacks. However, the experts
initial qualification will remain flat or even shift further in favor complain in certain instances about the inconsistent imple-
of the accelerated initial qualification in the future. In particular, mentation of Directive 2003/59/EC across the individual EU
given the importance of lateral entrants, the accelerated initial member states.
qualification is considered an important entry route into the
profession. Dual training is therefore also questionable as
regards its future importance in terms of numbers, leaving
aside that sound first apprenticeship generally results in
greater professional loyalty than lateral entry into the profes-
sion. Lateral entrants pose a greater risk of turnover according
to the general findings of occupational sociology, resulting in
continuance risks.
Yet even the fairly high numbers with the accelerated initial
qualification need to be treated with skepticism according to
27
the experts. First, there are no reliable figures on the perma-

24 The proportion of companies providing apprenticeships is the proportion of companies with apprentices in relation to all companies with employees covered by
mandatory social security contributions. Cf. Bibb (2014a), Table A4.10.1-24 Internet.
25 Cf. figures from BGL (2013b), p. 6.
26 Cf. BIBB (2014), above page 28 Cf. BIBB (2014), without page
27 The proportion of under 18s among individuals beginning an apprenticeship to become a professional driver is just 12 %, (figures for 2012) 29 Cf. BIBB (2013), 139ff.
while it is just under 27 % across all apprenticeship professions (figures for 2011). Cf. Bibb (2014), above page and Bibb (2013a), p. 156. 30 Cf. Chapter C, p. 47

30 31

photo: kalafoto_Fotolia
Situation is unlikely to improve by
increasing the proportion of women.
The driver profession is predominantly
male. At present, just 3.7 % of apprentic-
es to become professional drivers are
female. Among motor vehicle drivers
(professional group 714) they account for
4.4 % overall. Nonetheless, the propor-
31
tion of women is also low in a large
number of other professions, such as
bricklayers, mechatronic engineers, or
crane drivers. What is more decisive is
whether in the future women will increas-
ingly opt for the profession and help
offset the shortage.
According to the experts, this decisively
depends on the operating conditions that
shape the image of the profession and
how these change in the future. In turn,
the time frame also plays a role. Over the
short term, the experts clearly believe that
there is no realistic hope of an increasing
number of women entering the profes-
sion. In addition to the nonetheless
unfavorable operating conditions, certain
circumstances, such as the availability
of sanitary facilities, but also family life-
styles and the organization of daily life
with typical female role obligations and
the division of tasks among female
employees, also made it more difficult
to work as a driver.
31 Cf. Institute for Employment Research (IAB) (2014 [Call-off date: June 10, 2014]), without page.
32
The groupage area
can also be attractive
for women.
As long as this situation continues, wom-
ens interest in this profession will remain
low. Individual cases tended to confirm
the rule. If the operating conditions were
to change, keyword industrialization,
and timed transportation with the ability to
spending rest periods at home were to
gain ground, the experts expect the
profession to become more attractive for
women, too. Because of the operating
conditions, women will, however, be
deployed more frequently in short-
distance distribution than long-distance
haulage. Several experts drew a compari-
son here with the operating conditions in
local public transport. However, all ex-
perts ruled out the prospect of a substan-
tial increase in the proportion of female
driving personnel for the future.
B 3
Future Developments Affecting
the Shortage of Drivers
Generation Y also among
professional drivers changing
values bring about a shift in the
proportions of ideal types.
There is widespread consensus among the experts that the
attitudes and values of professional drivers have changed
substantially over the past few years and that this will contin-
ue to be the case in the future. As a result, the proportions
of the outlined ideal types will shift.
Developments among type 1: The number of individuals
that are so enthusiastic about the professions image with
its supposedly interesting aspects (international character,
independence, variety, etc.) that they accept very long
periods on the road with returning home that is difficult to
plan and long working hours, has already fallen sharply
and will in the future be almost marginalized. This is due,
on the one hand, to the operating conditions which have
altered substantially in the past, to be precise worsened
(keywords: transparency, outside control, relative remuner-
ation). On the other hand, it is also due to the willingness
of decreasing numbers of young people to accept the
professions requirements. In other words, type 1, the
classic King of the Road, will dominate the image of the
professional driver in Germany as a romantic notion at
best, but no longer in German transport companies. The
experts view is clear: In the future, there will no longer
be large numbers of long-distance drivers in international
tramp shipping in Germany. The root cause is the operat-
ing conditions and the lack of enthusiasm among young
drivers.
32 This question is also examined in greater detail in Chapter C.
The Experts View
Developments Affecting
the Shortage of Drivers
Developments among type 2: Type 2 still involves an
enthusiastic, long-distance driver who is moving up the
professional ladder. From his standpoint, the profession
offers substantial advantages. However, he is not willing
to be on the road for longer periods and to sacrifice all
personal interests for the sake of the professions require-
ments. In the experts view, this no longer just affects young
fathers or older individuals with regional social networks but
apprentices and young professional drivers as well. With
regard to the debate surrounding changes in social values,
the experts confirm that this group will in the future play
a greater role than type 1 in shaping the image of the
long-distance driver.32 Shorter trips lasting several days,
that provide a sense of variety and autonomy combined
with regular at-home periods are tailored to this type 2.
Such concepts already exist and will increase further in
future in the experts view.
Developments among type 3: In the experts view, type
3 (the Rationalist) is an important target group for future
junior drivers who are deployed in the standardized seg-
ment. While a type 3 driver may not have any pronounced
emotional link to the job, he made a conscious decision to
enter the profession. In his view, positive aspects (enthusi-
asm for technology, sensed autonomy as part of every-
day working routine) prompted this decision. At the same
time, he requires similar conditions to other professions in
relation to planning reliability, time spent at home, etc. As
industrialization makes further inroads in freight transport,
type 3 becomes increasingly important. According to the
experts, this type will therefore become far more important
in the future.
33

Developments among type 4: The
experts agree that type 4 will be a
permanent fixture in the driver land-
scape. As a result of its characteristics
it makes personnel planning in the
company and scheduling much more
difficult, not least given the particularly
high level of turnover among this type.
How the proportion of type 4 drivers
will develop will depend, in the experts
view, largely on the development of
the general conditions, including
alternative employment options and
pay levels.
Overall, the experts see type 2 and type
3 as the future dominant groups for
young upcoming drivers. While the
profile of type 2 tends to fit with national,
long-distance transport, also to a certain
extent with tramp shipping, and specialist
transport, type 3 is particularly suited to
the industrialized transport segments.
Development of the operating areas
The experts largely agree that future
conditions in the operating areas will
change. For the bulk of driving person-
nel, the fact that drivers can concentrate
on their main activity, namely driving,
will be a much more important factor in
future than is the case today. At the
same time, there will be a (numerically
lower) section of drivers who, in addition
to pure driving, provide value-added
services (VAS). The grey area in be-
tween where the driver spends a large
amount of working time with other
unpaid activities will become much
33 Trailer yard concepts aim to reduce loading and
unloading times for the vehicle. Put simply, the
preloaded transport containers for transferal to the
vehicle are provided at a designated location, thus
eliminating loading bay times. The same principle is
also applied during delivery.
34
smaller though in the experts view,
leading to a sharp increase in polariza-
tion.
The loading bay problem
will become much less
of an issue.
As the shortage of drivers becomes
worse, the more scarce and more
valuable the driving personnel re-
source will become. As a result, trans-
port companies can no longer afford to
burden the scarce resource, the driver,
with other activities. In this respect,
market pressure will prevent resources
from being misallocated. According to
the experts, this means that the calcula-
tion of demurrage will no longer be an
exception and process changes will be
triggered via this mechanism, resulting
in a greater concentration on driving. In
the experts view, the loading bay prob-
lem will become much less of an issue
in the future. A new self-awareness
among drivers and transport service
providers is likely. Some experts also
stressed the need for collaboration
between contractor and transport ser-
vice provider. New concepts are being
developed or tried-and-tested concepts
photo: Jan Bergrath
rolled out in certain segments. Such
concepts include the installation of
special loading teams at dispatchers
and recipients loading bays, along with
the increased use of the trailer yard
concept33. This development is support-
ed by the industrialization of transport. In
standardized transport systems, the
experts expect to see these kinds of pro-
cess improvements. As such, larger
fleets are much better placed in this
respect.
Drivers will create
added value.
Another section of drivers will, however,
be deployed specifically to provide VAS,
in addition to pure driving. The range of
potential services is extensive in the
experts view, covering everything from
highly specialized through to inter-
changeable VAS. Examples include
assembly and setup activities, filling and
mixing for the chemical industry, and
shelf service. The provision of certain
VAS will require higher qualifications
from the driving personnel. The common
thread through all VAS will be that they
are remunerated and not provided free
of charge. In various groupage networks
for instance, a business-to-consumer
course of a day thanks to multishift operation. Equipment
photo: Jan Bergrath
delivery is being set up that requires the driver to transport
the goods from the company to the consumer. Separate
charges are calculated for this work. In individual cases,
reference was also made to the growing importance of VAS
in the area of home delivery in sparsely populated areas.
Short-distance transport is affected much more by the
increasing importance of VAS.
In addition, certain experts also pointed out that transport and
value-added services could be decoupled from an HR per-
spective. The driver then delivers the shipments and focuses
on driving. Special service teams travel separately and pro-
vide the value-added services. Apart from the option of focus-
ing on driving, the costly truck also has lower vehicle down-
times with these concepts.
Industrialization is gaining
momentum.
Virtually all experts expect a significant expansion of industri-
alization in the future. What has established itself in the CEP
and general cargo segments will also gradually gain a foothold
in the initially national cargo market. The motivation of compa-
nies as well as the consequences of this development are
varied. Industrialization, here the experts agree, may bring
benefits, both economic and in terms of driver recruitment.
Standardization may, however, also go hand in hand with the
risk of a greater distance to the customer and dissatisfaction
among driving personnel (depending on the driver type).
For companies, the motivation for industrialization relates to
leveraging economic advantages. The cost position can be
improved by ensuring vehicles can be utilized more in the
The Experts View
Developments Affecting
the Shortage of Drivers
standardization automatically increases the options for driver
scheduling via swaps with other vehicles en route and defined
handover points. Industrialization proves advantageous in
those segments where customers can be served using stand-
ard semitrailers and other standard equipment. However, it
also involves requirements for companies. Economies of scale
can only be leveraged from a certain fleet size. In this respect,
the tendency towards concentration is also increased through
industrialization.
The drivers employed in such systems will experience
different operating conditions. As already discussed above,
this may be seen as positive or negative, depending on the
driver type.
Drivers must accept a de-individualization of the vehicle and
decoupling of the fixed driver-vehicle assignment. This creates
resistance with type 1 and 2 drivers in particular. Such drivers
set up their living room and find it difficult to accept that they
are meant to share their vehicles with others in order to in-
crease vehicle productivity. These kinds of drivers tend to
perceive being used as a stand-in as a punishment. In this
case, the negative aspects, such as vehicles not being refue-
led, previous driver is a smoker, or vehicle is left dirty domi-
nate when assessing the concept. To eliminate these kinds of
problems, standardized processes and services for cleaning
or refueling need to be established at the handover points.
Individual experts pointed out another problem area: Expens-
es may be lowered due to the shorter times on the road than
in classic freight transport. Consequently, different remunera-
tion models will be required.
The rational driver type is ideally suit-
ed for industrialized goods transport.
The advantages of industrialization, however, dominate when
type 3 drivers assess the concept. Plannable shift times, regular
periods spent at home, and a standardized workplace with trans-
parent processes are positively judged. The high degree of
transparency regarding the drivers performance (keyword:
drivers leagues using telematics system analysis) no longer
constitutes a problem for new-generation drivers since they are
35

already familiar with the relevant tech-
niques from the private sphere.
Overall, industrialization represents for
some companies an opportunity to posi-
tion themselves among young prospec-
tive drivers (in particular lateral entrants,
type 3) as an employer with positive
working conditions.
Industrialization will ultimately stand-
ardize the working conditions to a
certain extent and be comparable with
other professions, especially as far as
predictability and regularity are con-
cerned. Planning reliability will increase
substantially, as it becomes increasing-
ly important among young driving
personnel. Full standardization is,
Photo: Daimler
however, not possible even in industri-
alized systems experts fully agree
on that point.
Depending on the perspective, the ex-
perts have a different view on this devel-
opment. The majority was convinced that
the image of the profession would be-
come more attractive as a result, particu-
larly in light of the change in values that
is currently underway. The experts in turn
agreed that there would be no avoiding
industrialization in certain segments in
future.
According to the experts, other future
developments will affect working condi-
tions and driving personnel workplaces.
No major disruptions are expected, but
rather a continual evolution, as already
outlined in the 2012 study. This includes
various aspects that affect driving itself
as well as developments on and around
the vehicle.
36
Photo: Daimler
Semi-autonomous driving: Driving
itself may well change in the future in
the experts view. Semi-autonomous
driving may gain a foothold on long
journeys in particular. The driver may
well be sitting in the vehicle, but
assumes a supervisory function on
long distances. The scenario plays out
as follows: The vehicle covers the long
distance on the highway largely auton-
omously while the driver takes over
driving the vehicle in the field. While
the experts foresee certain individual
technical problems here, such as
functionality on snow-covered roads or
reliable lane detection, these systems
are almost ready for use. Platooning
(vehicles are aligned to a vehicle
ahead) also is on the verge of becom-
ing a mature application. Actual use of
The Experts View
Developments Affecting
the Shortage of Drivers
this technology is more a question of
legal rather than technical issues. In
the future, the truck will increasingly
perform the actual driving the aspect
that substantially motivates certain
young drivers. Similar developments
also exist with delivery vehicles in the
CEP segment. These vehicles can
follow the delivery agent, who serves
the customer on foot, virtually auto-
matically using GPS control on routes
with very frequent stops.
Further technology penetration of
the work: In all of the drivers areas of
activity, technology use will increase.
Above all, this affects the development
of new driver assistance systems;
further developments are, however,
also expected in the area of communi-
cations with the scheduling function
and networking, including dynamic
parking space allocation or assis-
tants to comply with driving times.
The experts agree that the increased
penetration of technology will make
driving easier. However, this will have
varying repercussions on drivers
themselves. After all, technology
penetration will reduce the drivers
overall autonomy. Depending on the
motivation, this may be seen as
positive or negative.
Transparency will increase further:
Increasing transparency regarding the
drivers activities is directly associated
with further technology penetration.
According to the experts, the technolo-
gy, which leads to the glass driver, is
now no longer simply viewed critically,
but also interpreted as an incentive and
assistance for completing the tasks.
Physically it will become easier: The drivers future role
will be less physically demanding than at present. Ware-
house personnel will increasingly be responsible for loading
and unloading, as already mentioned. Additional challenges
will result from the largely sedentary role. For instance, some
experts predict developments aimed at increasing driver
fitness. In addition to equipment in the drivers cab this also
includes services at rest areas and campaigns designed to
promote a healthy diet.
Respect for driver increases further: Well over a third of
the experts believe that the current and emerging shortage
will also lead to greater respect for the driver in society. The
contribution of drivers will become clearer and the negative
image shift over the past twenty years be reversed to a
certain extent as a result. Consequently, the profession will
become more attractive for prospective young drivers. The
increased respect, also at loading bays, is a positive side
effect of the negative development.
Fewer vehicle-specific activities: The classic full-blooded
driver usually has a high affinity for technology and also
carries out, in small fleets in particular, certain repairs on
his truck. In industrialized transport systems, this is not
possible because of the fine-tuned processes and driver
change on individual vehicles. As a trend, the experts also
see an increased concentration on driving. (External or
internal) service employees will increasingly assume respon-
sibility for repairs as well as cleaning the vehicle cab in larger
fleets in particular.
photo: Jan Bergrath
Job will become more demanding: The experts predict that
the range of duties will be enriched in the future particularly
in those segments where driving personnel is not only re-
sponsible for the actual driving but also provide value-added
services. An additional improvement is the increased qualifi-
cation requirements. Many experts believe that the responsi-
bility assumed by the driver will also increase for short-
distance general cargo transport, where no value-added
services have been provided to date. Here, the driver will be
increasingly involved in the documentary processes and will
also have to assess the situation more effectively and have
greater decision-making leeway than at present. Hence,
some experts believe that the driver will increasingly assume
responsibility for managing his own driving behavior, have to
be benchmarked against others via relevant driver leagues,
and then, ultimately, be responsible vis--vis third parties.
Drivers in a fleet are assessed in driver leagues via tele-
matics and compete with each other.
37

photo: Volvo Trucks
Development of Professional
Drivers Performance
A drivers performance cannot
be determined uniformly.
In regard to the question of how to measure the performance
of professional drivers, the unanimous view of the experts was
that a uniform, across-the-board statement in this respect is not
possible. Performance depends far too much on the individual
operating conditions. The ton kilometer (tkm) measure may
be a useful parameter for assessing the development of road
haulage and the average performance development on a macro
level, but it is not suitable as a (single) parameter at company
level. Even on a macro level, additional segment-specific param-
eters are proposed such as the number of delivered packages
per inhabitant for the CEP segment. The original question, that
was solely seen in quantitative terms, has been extended to
include a qualitative component with an astonishing degree of
consistency among the experts.
Any assessment of the quantitative performance of a driver
depends largely on their operating area and the business seg-
ment in which the company operates. In the case of short-
distance transport in the general cargo segment or with CEP
services, the number of stops is an important parameter. Accord-
ing to the experts, the tkm figure is used to a certain extent as a
parameter in classic, long-distance transport, but the driver has
limited impact on that figure. Particularly in international long-
distance transport, the kilometers travelled tend to be used as
an indicator of a drivers performance in some companies; this
figure also depends far more on the scheduler and possible
vehicle downtimes.
The driver cannot normally influence quantitative performance
independently. It depends on a host of general conditions, such
as the quality of the scheduler, waiting time at loading bays, or
even the time of day.
38
The quality of a driver is crucially important.
In the experts view, the qualitative component is much more
important than the quantitative performance when assessing
driving personnel. Here, aspects such as incidence of dam-
age, appearance vis--vis clients, performance in telematics
assessments (fuel consumption, anticipatory driving behavior,
etc.) through to reliability are important. In certain segments,
the driver remains the companys calling card a fact that is
often neglected in the experts view. Not all quality aspects
can be quantified as part of this process, but they are ex-
tremely important nonetheless.
With regard to the quantitative performance of drivers, two domi-
nant bottlenecks were identified. The situation at loading bays is
the dominant bottleneck right now in the experts view. In addition
to average waiting times, it is especially the low planning reliability
of downtimes which makes it more difficult to plan driving person-
nel deployment. Difficult planning reliability considerably hampers
route and deployment planning by producing follow-up delays that
also affect other customers. In the experts view, driving personnel
resources are being squandered here. The existing time window
management systems have not had the hoped-for results to date.
The other bottleneck identified by the experts is seen in terms of
infrastructure. Frequent tailbacks also impaired the performance
of driving personnel. Several variables impact on this bottleneck.
For instance, other factors that impair performance through
tailbacks include the time of day and the region where the
vehicle is being used.
Loading bay times and tailbacks are currently the greatest levers
for influencing driving personnel performance. In the future, as
mentioned previously, experts expect the loading bay problem to
become less important. In contrast, the experts see an increas-
ing problem in terms of infrastructure.
B 4
Other bottlenecks that were mentioned
individually by the experts relate to sched-
uling, which has a massive influence on
the deployment of drivers and the driving
time arrangements. This severely restricts
deployment flexibility, especially in rela-
tion to the digital tachograph.
In future even more drivers
will be required.
The aforementioned gap between age-
related future retirements from the driving
profession and upcoming driving person-
nel relates solely to the status quo. This
does not yet factor in the forecast growth
in transport, as already illustrated in
Chapter 1. In this respect, the experts
were asked for their opinion regarding
whether the forecast growth in transport
will translate into additional requirements
for drivers. This would then exacerbate
the existing shortage caused by demo-
graphic factors.
There was consensus among the ex-
perts that the average tkm performance
of driving personnel will increase in the
future; this may be due to the changing
general conditions. Some experts see
potential that can still be leveraged in
the areas of vehicle dimensions (key-
photo: Matthias Rathmann
word long truck), development and
uptake of new concepts (keyword trailer
yards), in reduced empty kilometer
ratios (keyword route planning, round-
trip design), increased utilization (key-
word bundling over time), or reduced
The Experts View
Development of Professional
Drivers Performance
vehicle downtimes (keyword loading bay
situation, dynamic time window manage-
ment).
The experts were unable to provide
reliable figures here, but there was largely
consensus that the expected perfor-
mance improvements cannot fully offset
the forecast transport volume. In this
respect, an increasing need for driving
personnel is expected for the future,
which will fail to keep pace with the
forecast increase in transport activity.
In individual cases, the reliability of the
transport forecasts themselves was
questioned when scrutinizing the underly-
ing growth rates in the individual EU
member states. The new forecast
through 2030 assumes annual growth of
1.7 %, while the old forecast was based
on an average growth in transport activity
of 2.8 %.
39
 B 5
Consequences of the Future Shortage of
Drivers for German Transport Companies
The previous deliberations have shown that the shortage of
drivers is already being discussed and the situation is expected
to get even worse in the future. It, however, also became clear
that this does not apply across the board. Various factors war-
rant that future conditions need to be analyzed on a differentiat-
ed basis.
The following lays out repercussions of the presented develop-
ments and how the experts believe they will impact the future
shortage of drivers.
International tramp shipping will be particularly affected:
As a consequence of the insights, international tramp ship-
ping will be the most affected by the expected developments.
This relates primarily to the opportunities open to German
transport companies for securing young drivers for this
operating area. The more severe, international competition is
addressed in Chapter E.
Distance influences the driving personnel situation: As
 However, a distinction needs to be made based on operat-
the distances and the more time drivers spend away from
home increase, the more difficult it will be to recruit driving
personnel in the future. The reason lies in the changed condi-
tions on the road, the outlined shift in values, and the associat-
ed shift in proportions between the presented driver types.
Individual experts also qualify the statements by referring to
the difficulties in the short-distance segment where increased
stress because of traffic in inner cities, greater deadline
pressure, and longer working hours are likely.
Planning reliability influences the driving personnel
 CEE countries. One alternative for German transport com-
situation: Greater planning reliability makes the profile of the
profession more attractive among prospective young drivers,
especially type 3. Most experts believe that the operating
areas that allow deployment times to be planned will be
affected less by the shortage of drivers than the areas where
planning reliability is low (esp. tramp shipping).
40
Regional aspects influence the driving personnel
situation: On a regional basis, the shortage of drivers will
have a greater impact on structurally strong regions. This is
due to the alternative sources of income available to the
prospective young drivers, especially among type 3.
There will be no shortage of specialists: In the experts
 areas: The usage of German-speaking driving personnel is
view, sufficient numbers of driving personnel in specialist
segments will be available. First, these drivers earned above
the average and, second, this is an attractive and therefore
desirable working area from the viewpoint of the ambitious
young drivers (type 1, but especially type 2).
Personality is decisive: A personal, respectful attitude
 Remuneration will be increased: There is consensus
towards driving personnel, as you would actually expect, will
help combat the shortage of driving personnel in individual
companies, in addition to the previously mentioned influenc-
ing factors. Here, individual experts believe small and mid-
sized enterprises will be able to leverage this opportunity.
According to the experts, the expected problem areas associat-
ed with the shortage of drivers, as described earlier, can be
assigned to the matrix developed above. Based on this matrix,
an initial overview of the future driving personnel situation can
be put together from the experts view.
Figure 13:
Expected problem areas associated with the shortage of drivers
ST RT Nat. LDT Internat. LDT
Tramp
l l l l
Scheduled
l l l l
System
l l l l
l very serious, l serious, l not serious
photo: Matthias Rathmann
Options available from the experts view.
In order to combat the increasing shortage of drivers, various
processes are being triggered according to the experts.
among the experts that higher remuneration is increasingly
likely in the future for driving personnel employed in Ger-
man companies. This issue has been thoroughly discussed
for many years, and the increasingly difficult shortage
situation will ultimately feed into increased remuneration.
ing areas. A shift is likely in transport for those segments
where goods could also be shipped by foreign companies
(especially international long-distance transport).
Shifting transport to foreign companies: The dwindling
importance of German transport companies that has been
apparent for some time in the international segment will
continue in the future in the experts view. This is not least
connected to the possibilities of acquiring driving personnel
and, of course, on the remuneration level especially in the
panies is to intensify the already common practice of shift-
ing international transport activities to locations in CEE
countries. The acquisition of driving personnel is much
simpler in these countries and drivers are also willing to
accept longer periods away from home. Earnings in relation
to the local national average income are good, even if they
The Experts View
Consequences of the
Shortage of Drivers
are low compared with German wage levels. The experts
also pointed out problems, including the limited language
skills of some drivers.
Acquisition of driving personnel outside Germany: One

option of combating the worsening shortage of drivers, in
national tramp shipping in particular, is to increasingly
acquire young drivers from outside Germany. Apart from
the Central and Eastern European countries, the Iberian
Peninsula represents an increasingly compelling option.
German-speaking driving personnel required in certain

indispensable in certain operating areas. German-speaking
driving personnel is required in operating areas involving a
great deal of customer contact where value-added services
are also provided to the customer. It is unlikely that German
companies will be squeezed out by foreign companies
(keyword lifting restrictions on cabotage). These segments
also tended to require higher levels of qualification and
would therefore also offer higher remuneration.
Experts concluding recommendations on how
to mitigate the future situation:
To conclude this chapter, following are the experts recommen-
dations on how to combat the worsening shortage of driving
personnel in the future.
There is consensus among the experts that drivers make
a major contribution to the functioning of the economy and
on societys ability to consume. The profession also provides
a number of interesting facets and is essentially a very
attractive profession. Efforts should therefore be made at all
levels to improve the professions image. This applies to the
government as well as industry associations, employee
representatives, and companies themselves. Many experts
believe that this also explicitly includes presenting an
external image in line with specific target groups. Ultimately,
a positive external image will make the profession more
attractive. By way of qualification, individual experts,
however, point out that other industries are inevitably
better positioned to recruit junior staff because of working
conditions and remuneration.
41

According to some experts, the need to increase driver
remuneration is just as important. One expert proposes a
minimum wage here on par with the Baden-Wrttemberg
collective agreement. Others point to the issue of expenses.
Low remuneration has led many drivers to understand ex-
penses as an income component, rather than as a means for
food and accommodation while on the road. These experts
suggest this may become the first step to poverty in old age.
The on-the-road costs now exceed the financial means of
drivers (especially food & drink at rest areas). The parking
charges at truck stops are also too high unless the employer
covers them. In addition, apprenticeship remuneration is too
low compared with other occupations with apprenticeships.
Working conditions and remuneration
have to be competitive.
In the area of apprenticeship, individual experts suggested
the government look at plugging the gap between starting
an apprenticeship at 16 and the drivers license at 18. Here,
individual experts suggested thinking about a type of ac-
companied driving at 17 in road haulage, similar to the
accompanied driving in the passenger car segment. Experi-
enced drivers could accompany apprentices; apprentices
would thus be able to learn about other areas from their
more experienced colleagues (behavior at loading bays, ).
This would also provide companies with more opportunities
for acquiring drivers. Yet here the experts express different
and contradictory views: Some explicitly reject driving at
17 and cite the way in which apprentices are treated and the
conditions in individual companies as the reason for the high
dropout rates. Overall, however, the industry was encour-
aged to make greater efforts to attract prospective young
drivers.
In relation to deployment times many experts propose great-
er flexibility with the structuring of driving and rest times.
Particular criticism is leveled at the long rest times amounting
to eleven hours during on-the-road deployments. The week-
end deployment models that can be realized on the basis of
the current Regulation on Driving Times and Rest Periods
also undermined many core issues that make the job more
attractive. One suggestion involves compressing the on-the-
42
B 6
The Experts View EXPERTEN
Consequences of the Interim Conclusion
Shortage of Drivers
road phase, which would then automatically lead to longer Interim Conclusion:
free-time periods at home and make time-off more attractive.
Individual experts specifically propose setting up a flexibility The Experts View
framework for rest periods between eight and eleven hours,
without increasing the weekly driving times. Especially in
systematized transport, driver round-trip models could be
developed that condense time spent on the road, resulting The driving profession continues to offer positive aspects and
in longer blocks of free time. The profession could thus be freedoms that cannot be found in other occupations, such as
made more attractive according to these experts. It must, the sensed autonomy during time spent on the road. It differ-
however, be stressed that not all experts shared this view entiates itself positively from other ways of earning a living
and, in this case, there is a particular concern that employers for the future target groups. On the other hand, the negative
will exploit the flexibility framework to their own ends. aspects (payment, image and esteem, operating conditions)
have increased to the extent that they more than outweigh the
The conditions for spending rest periods should also be advantages in the view of many prospective junior drivers. In
improved according to several experts. This affects the the future, two driver types will dominate as the target group
possibility of recovery on the road, for example. Restorative for acquiring young drivers: The Committed/Type 2 and the
sleep is a basic requirement that allows drivers to function at Rationalist/Type 3. If the operating conditions can be altered
peak performance. In addition to equipping the drivers cab, to reduce the negative aspects without compromising the
which now boasts a high level of equipment and appoint- positive aspects, then the image of the profession can be
ments across all manufacturers, noise levels on public high- made more attractive. Nonetheless, only certain operating
way parking lots were most frequently quoted. Here, in the areas will be able to leverage this opportunity.
view of some experts, serious mistakes were made in the
past when constructing parking lots by placing them much
too close to the highway.
Some experts recommend that industry companies should
take training their own junior staff seriously, while viewing
such training as a necessary investment in the companys
future. Prejudices, like training is for the competitions bene-
fit, need to be eliminated. The specific acquisition of lateral
entrants was also suggested although no specific measures
were mentioned.
photo: Matthias Rathmann
43
 C
Professional Driver Survey
Implementation and Methodology

rts O pin io ns Design and Implementation of the Survey

e t h e E xp e
Now Com m th e
d F utu re Fr o
Presen t an Based on the first study, a standardized survey was again the chosen methodology.
To this end, a questionnaire was designed that was split into three sections:

l D r ive rs V iew
Professiona
1. Sociodemographic data
2. Working environment and conditions
3. Future development of the professions image

Professional drivers are the main players in road haulage
and their views on the profession provide an important
basis for identifying future requirements regarding the
image of the occupation of professional driver in road
haulage. The Professional Driver Survey task was to
identify the views of professional drivers in relation to their
working conditions, individual views on the profession,
and future expectations an approach that was already
used in the first study.
It was developed with the intent to take around 15 minutes to complete the
questionnaires; this was verified by pretesting, which also provided other useful
insights in relation to the contents.
Since there is no register of professional drivers, the questionnaires were distributed
through various channels. On the one hand, the questionnaire was included as an
insert with the FERNFAHRER magazine (issue 5/2014). On the other, DEKRA
and SVG distributed the questionnaires at their further training centers. Additionally,
forwarding companies, freight transport and groupage networks throughout Germany
were asked to hand out the questionnaires to their drivers.
Feedback from the questionnaires
In total, 2 340 questionnaires were at least partially completed. However, only
those questionnaires that were at least half completed were included in the analysis.
This left 2 196 questionnaires that could be used for the analysis.

Sociodemographic data
Of the drivers taking part in the survey, 98 % were male and just under 2 % female
figures similar to the first ZF study on the future of transport of 2012.

The average age of those surveyed is 47. Hence, those surveyed are on average a
year older than with the first study. The youngest driver was 19 years old and the
oldest 79.

44 45
 C 1
Professional Driver Survey Professional Driver Survey
Implementation and Methodology Professional Continuity

Segmenting the age data into four categories reveals that Professional Continuity/
around 45 % of drivers are 50 or over (see Figure 14).
Strong Loyalty to the Profession,
The proportion of drivers with German nationality made up the
largest group in the survey, accounting for 92 %. Just under but Limited Loyalty to the Employer?
photo: Volker Hammermeister

5 % are nationals from other EU countries and 3 % non-EU

nationals. Feedback comes from professional drivers from all
16 federal states in Germany.
In accordance with the age distribution, Figure 16: On the other hand, around 13 % of
Professional experience as a driver
89 % of drivers indicated that they are employed. 6 % are the proportion of drivers with longer drivers with more than 10 years of

12+15+73
self-employed or subcontractors, and 5 % have other contractu- professional experience also constitutes more than 10 years
professional experience have never
al relationships (e.g. temporary staff). In regards to the distri- the largest group. Almost three quarters 72.5 %
more than
changed employer, i.e. these drivers
5 years
bution of school leaving certificates, most prevalent is the of surveyed drivers have more than 12.2 %
have had the same employer since
junior high school leaving certificate [Hauptschule] at over 10 years of professional experience starting work as a driver. This grouping
52 %, followed by intermediate education qualifications (34 %). (cf. Figure 16). corresponds to around 9 % of all drivers.
Nonetheless, nearly 10 % of those surveyed have higher
education qualifications. More than 65 % of the surveyed drivers As already shown in the previous study,
have changed employers at least once the vast majority (83 %) of the surveyed
Most of the surveyed drivers are married or live in a permanent during their time as a professional driver. drivers pursued another profession
partnership, as illustrated in Figure 15. Just over a third of professional drivers before starting work as a driver. This
more than 5
(34.2 %) with more than ten years of up to 10 years applies in particular to drivers above the
15.3%
professional experience have changed age of 35. In the group of those under
Figure 14: Figure 15*:
Age distribution of drivers Marital status of drivers employers in the past five years, and (n= 2,037) 25, a significantly lower number of
just under 13 % of the surveyed drivers people selected this detour. As a result,

1+12+4245 16+5+6910
25 to 34 changed employers within the past it is clear that lateral entrants are an
11.7 % Divorced/separated
Under 25 9.8 % twelve months. These results are com- important target group for transport
1.4 % Single
16.0 % parable with those results from the first companies. Figure 17 illustrates the
study on the future of transport. When percentages by age category.
With partner/but separated analyzing the reasons for changing
5.4 %
employers, it should be remembered
Figure 17:
that not all drivers changed employers Percentage of drivers with a previous profession
voluntarily. Reasons may include mov-
50 over
45.1 % ing, bankruptcies, etc. 100 %

80 %
35 to 49
41.8 %
Married/partnership 60 %
68. 9 %
40 %
(n=2,160) (n = 2,184)

20 %
* With relative distributions, differences regarding the respective total
sums can result from rounding.
0%
Under 25 25 to 35 35 to 49 50 and over Total

(n= 2,135)

46 47
 C 2 Professional Driver Survey
Reasons for Choosing the Profession

Reasons for Choosing the Profession Satisfaction with the profession

Just under 56 % of the surveyed professional drivers would choose the same
profession again. However, this willingness depends largely on job satisfaction.
While the vast majority of very satisfied drivers would choose the profession again,
Figure 19:
In the current survey, Enjoyment Reasons for choosing the profession excluding dissatisfied drivers would most likely not move into the profession again.
of driving again is the most enjoyment of driving

frequently mentioned reason for Dissatisfaction has several reasons. Satisfaction drops the longer drivers are
employed in their current company and the more professional experience they have.
choosing the profession. A lack of alternatives 28 %

However, the operating range over which drivers normally work is a clear factor
It is an interesting job 25.9 %
The enjoyment of driving is by far the most frequently men- that influences how drivers assess job satisfaction. While only approximately 8 %
tioned reason (67 %). This is indicative of a basically intrin- Potential earnings 24.5 % of local distribution drivers are dissatisfied with their job, the figure rises to almost
sic motivation among most drivers. The lack of alternatives I am my own boss 18.7 %
20 % for international long-distance transport drivers.
when choosing a profession was a factor for just 14.5 %
Other 18.2 %
(cf. Figure 18). The motives for choosing the profession
Table 1:
mentioned by the drivers are thus very closely aligned to It is a responsible occupation 12 % Satisfaction with the profession and renewed choice
the results obtained from the apprentices in Chapter D. of the profession
The job offers an opportunity
to get to know cities/countries 11.7 %
Renewed choice of the profession

My parents are also drivers 9.9 % No Yes Total

Figure 18:
Reasons for choosing the profession 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % Very satisfied 1.4 % 16.9 % 18.3 %

Satisfied 29.6 % 37.6 % 67.1 %

I enjoy driving 67.3 % Satisfaction with
the profession
Around 33 % of drivers did not mention enjoyment of driving Dissatisfied 13.4 % 1.2 % 14.6 %
It is an interesting job 41.1 %
as a reason behind their choice of profession. Figure 19
Total 44.3 % 55.7 % 100.0 %
I am my own boss 31.3 %
illustrates their motives. The motives ranking which has
changed compared with the first study: Lack of alternatives (n= 2,169)
The job offers an opportunity
29.8 %
to get to know cities/countries and Earnings potential, as the predominant motivation
It is a responsible occupation
25.7 % among those drivers that did not state enjoyment of driving
Table 2:
as a motive, is not statistically significant. According to the Percentage of dissatisfied drivers by operating range
Potential earnings 24.8 %
results of both surveys, both motives are therefore equally
Operating range Dissatisfied with job
My parents are also drivers 14.7 % fundamental as the reasons for choosing the profession for
drivers that are primarily motivated extrinsically. Local (up to 50 km) 8.4 %
A lack of alternatives 14.5 %
Regional (up to 150 km) 9.7 %
photo: Karl-Heinz Augustin

Other 10.1 %
National long-distance transport 16.6 %
0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 %
International long-distance transport 19.7 %

Total 14.6 %

(n=2,151)
photo: Andreas Techel

48 49
 C 3
C 4 Professional Driver Survey
Operating Range and Areas

photo: Jochen Tack_Imago

Driver Type Operating Range and Areas

According to the expert interviews, three different driver
types were defined: The Committed, the Called, and the
Rationalist. As part of the survey, drivers were asked to
categorize themselves as one of these types.
The result clearly shows that most drivers categorize them-
selves under the Committed type. They enjoy driving, but
regulated working hours are important to them. The
short-distance, regional, and national long-distance trans-
port operating areas are represented above average in this
group, which would be far more disposed to choose the
profession again. By contrast, they are less likely to be
found working in international long-distance transport.
The second-largest group categorizes itself as the Called
type. These drivers stand out in particular by virtue of their
higher than average working hours and driving times per
week. For them, being on the road is a positive aspect.
Their current operating area is mainly national or interna-
The Rationalists constitute the third-largest group among
current drivers and account for over a quarter (Figure 20).
This group among which the probability of choosing the
profession again is below average, unlike the others, works
in short-distance and regional transport. The working hours
and driving times are below average. However, these drivers
have above average loyalty to their current employer.
For over a quarter of the
drivers it is a job just like
any other job.
Driver types are not distributed evenly across age catego-
ries. As age increases, drivers tend to categorize them-
selves more as the Rationalist type, as the distribution
by age category illustrates.
Table 3:
Driver types by age category
Around 40 % of drivers have operating ranges of up to 150 km
(see Figure 21). The results from the first study also illustrate
a similar percentage. In long-distance transport, the bulk of
drivers are employed in national long-distance transport, even
though far more drivers undertake international assignments
than was the case in the first ZF study on the future of trans-
port (ZF Zukunftsstudie FERNFAHRER).
Professional drivers were asked to indicate whether they
would willingly change their operating range and, if so, what
operating range they would prefer. The results show that
around 17 % would willingly change.
As Table 4 below shows, primarily national and international
long-distance transport drivers would like to change their
current operating range. Together they account for around
70 % of all drivers willing to change. National long-distance
transport drivers make up the largest contingent of drivers
willing to change, accounting for almost 45 %. Analyzing the

photo: MAN
tional long-distance transport. This group would choose desired operating ranges reveals that the regional and inter-
the profession again well above the average. national segments are the preferred new operating ranges.
Under 25 25 to 34 35 to 49 50 and over Total
Short-distance transport plays a secondary role.

Figure 20: Called 52 % 42 % 31 % 32 % 33 %

Distribution of drivers by classified types Table 4:
Committed 45 % 37 % 43 % 40 % 42 % Change of operating range
I enjoy driving,
I find the job interesting, 41.9 % Rationalist 3% 21 % 25 % 28 % 25 %
but I also value regular Desired operating range
working hours (Committed)
Total 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %
I enjoy driving immensely, Local Regional National long-distance International long-
Total
I like the freedom and I enjoy 33.4 % (up to 50 km) (up to 150 km) transport distance transport
being on the road (Called) (n=2,160)
Local (up to 50 km) 8.2 % 1.0 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 9.9 %
I consider the job to be
the same as any other 21.5 % Regional (up to 150 km) 0.6 % 27.0 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 30.2 %
(Rationalists)
Current National long-distance
operating 0.6 % 2.9 % 25.2 % 4.1 % 32.7 %
transport
range
Other 3.2 % International long-
0.7 % 1.8 % 1.8 % 22.8 % 27.1 %
distance transport

0% 20 % 40 % Total 10.0 % 32.7 % 28.8 % 28.5 % 100.0 %

(n=2,164)
(n=2,160)

50 51
 C 5
Professional Driver Survey Professional Driver Survey
Operating Range and Areas Working Hours

Approximately one third of drivers stated, as Figure 21 shows, Professional Drivers Working Hours
that they are mainly involved in scheduled transport. While
scheduled transport plays a major role (approximately 44 %)
in shorter operating ranges, this operating type is much less
prevalent as the operating range increases. Tramp shipping The first study already showed that the professional driver Figure 23:
Breakdown of working time by area of activity
and specialist transport are dominant in international long- occupation entails working long hours. The surveyed drivers
distance transport, accounting for almost 87 %. once again confirmed this with an average working week of 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 %

54 hours. However, the drivers figures are based on a

34
Local (up to 50 km)

Most drivers who are prepared to subjective definition of working hours, which does not neces-
change their operating area want to

photo: DAF
sarily coincide with the definition under 21a Arbeitszeitge- Regional (up to 150 km)

work in scheduled transport. setz (Working Hours Act). The weekly working hours and
National long-
driving time, as well as the kilometers driven per week in- distance transport
crease with the operating range. However, no correlation
International long-
was found between satisfaction with the profession and distance transport
Figure 21:
Percentage of drivers by operating range working hours/driving times. Total

35 % 32.6 %
30.3 % The question of whether drivers would like to change their A breakdown of the weekly working hours by driving time,
30 % 27.2 % Driving time Loading and unloading time Other
operating type was answered yes by 7.5 %. Among those loading and unloading time, and other working time, reveals
25 %

20 %
willing to change, the desire to switch from tramp shipping and that an increase in the operating range translates to an in- (n =2,042)

15 % specialist transport to scheduled transport was most prevalent. crease in the percentage of driving time in relation to working
9.9 %
10 % Approximately 69 % of drivers wishing to change would like time. In short-distance transport, driving times account for
5% to switch to scheduled transport. The desire to change from around 50 % of weekly working time. However, the percentage
0%
local (up to regional (up to national long- international long-
tramp shipping and specialist transport to scheduled transport of driving time increases to almost 70 % for an international
50 km) 150 km) distance transport distance transport
is the most pronounced among drivers employed in interna- long-distance transport driver (cf. Figure 23). In absolute terms
(n = 2,175) tional long-distance transport. Conversely, just under a third this means that on average the driving time in short-distance
prefer another transport type to scheduled transport. transport is around 23 hours per week and approximately
42 hours per week in long-distance transport. An analysis of
the Regulation on Driving Times and Rest Periods, which
Figure 22:
Operating types by operating range

100 % Table 5: Working time, driving time, and kilometers per week

80 % Percentage Weekly working time Driving time Distance driven Average speed
of drivers (h) per week (h) (km per week) (km/h)

60 % Local
9.9 44.4 22.6 673 30
(up to 50 km)

40 % Regional
30.3 49.1 30.0 1,290 43
(up to 150 km)

20 % National long-
32.6 57.1 38.6 2,554 66
distance transport

0% International long-
27.2 59.3 41.5 2,665 64
local (up to regional (up to national long- international long- Total distance transport
50 km) 150 km) distance transport distance transport
Total 100.0 54.0 35.5 2,032 56
Scheduled transport Other (tramp, special lines)

(n=1,957) n=2,042 n=1,866

34 Compared with the first study, the currently estimated weekly working hours in all operating ranges are slightly below the corresponding figures from 2012. Statistically significant differences
can, however, only be demonstrated among national long-distance transport drivers for the figures regarding working hours and driving times. Nonetheless, the reductions in working hours
and driving times as well as the kilometers driven per week found in all operating ranges point to a reduced workload compared with the figures from 2012.

52 53
 C 6
Professional Driver Survey Professional Driver Survey
Working Hours The Truck as Workplace

stipulates that weekly driving time may be a maximum 56 The Truck as Workplace
hours provided a total driving time of 90 hours is not exceed-
ed in two consecutive weeks reveals that there is virtually no
additional scope for increasing the possible driving times in
long-distance transport. The corresponding estimated average The truck is the professional drivers work tool or workplace. Table 6:
Willingness to drive several trucks
figures for the other areas of activity can be seen in Table 3, Around 23 % of all the surveyed drivers stated that they usually
which also shows as expected that the number of kilometers drive several trucks when pursuing their profession. The figures
Operating range No Yes Total
driven per week increases with the operating range. The table ranged from 2 through 50 trucks. The average figure is 4.8
Local (up to 50 km) 44.3 % 55.7 % 100.0 %
also includes the average speeds (kilometers driven per trucks for those drivers that drive more than one truck.
week divided by the weekly driving time). Regional (up to 150 km) 65.1 % 34.9 % 100.0 %

Those drivers (77 %) who normally only drive one truck were National long-distance transport 76.7 % 23.3 % 100.0 %
also asked to state whether they would be prepared to drive
Figure 24: International long-distance transport 81.2 % 18.8 % 100.0 %
Characterization of driver types several. The majority (72 %) answered the question with a No,
Total 72.4 % 27.6 % 100.0 %
as the following Table 4 illustrates. However, the willingness to
drive several trucks varies with the operating range. As the (n = 1,422)

operating range increases, the willingness decreases substan-

Above average

tially. Drivers in the short-distance segment would be much more

willing (at 56 % even the majority) to drive several trucks than
Figure 25:
international long-distance transport drivers where only a fifth Percentage of drivers willing to drive several trucks
would be prepared to do so.
80 %
Below average

Long-distance drivers 70 %

dislike sharing their working 60 %

vehicle with colleagues. 50 %

working hours Driving time km per I enjoy driving The job offers an
per week per week week motive opportunity to get to Combining the willingness to drive several trucks with the pro- 40 %
know cities/countries
motive portion of drivers that already drive several trucks reveals that 30 %
Called Committed Rationalists around 56 % of drivers prefer to drive just one truck, or put
20 %
(n=1,942) another way: 44 % drive or could envision driving several trucks.
These percentages differ based on the predominant operating 10 %

range, as Figure 25 illustrates. In short-distance transport it is 0%

local (up to regional (up to national long- international long- Total
almost 70 %, while in international long-distance transport the 50 km) 150 km) distance transport distance transport

same figure falls to 30 % (n=1,920)

photo: Karl-Heinz Augustin

54 55
 C 7
Professional Driver Survey Professional Driver Survey
The Truck as Workplace Obtaining a Drivers License

In short-distance transport, Obtaining a Drivers License

most drivers have no problem
changing vehicles.
The assessment of the cab as the workplace for the profes-
sional driver provides additional clues to the drivers attitude
towards their profession. It is not surprising that drivers
would like a cab that is above all clean and equipped with
sophisticated technology. They do not see the cab as a
workplace like any other. There is widespread consensus
among surveyed drivers regarding virtually all the state-
ments that are illustrated in Figure 26; the question of
whether changing to another cab is unproblematic is an
exception. All drivers tended to view this question fairly
neutrally.35 However, differentiating the results by operating
The truck drivers license is the basic requirement for working An analysis focusing solely on those drivers that obtained
Figure 26:
Assessment of the cab as a driver. Currently, a personal investment of between EUR their drivers license after September 10, 2009 reveals that
6 000 and 8 000 to obtain a class CE license is a significant the proportion of drivers licenses financed in full or in part by
It is important that it is clean burden and hurdle. Also, professional drivers have had to employers increases to over 40 %, as Figure 28 illustrates.
and of a high technical standard.
attend additional training courses since 2009 under the Pro- This result indicates a clear industry trend to reduce license
The drivers cab should be exactly fessional Drivers Qualification Act (BKrFQG). 49 % of current- acquisition as an entry hurdle when recruiting drivers. The
the way I like it and I do not wish
to share it with others. ly active drivers obtained their drivers license privately - the survey data also shows that the percentage of drivers licen-
largest group in the survey. Figure 27 below also illustrates ses financed by employers among drivers under 25 is almost
Technical developments will make
the drivers cab more attractive. that one out of every five drivers still obtained their drivers 75 %. The figure once again clearly demonstrates the dwind-
license during military service. ling importance of military service as a source for obtaining a
Switching to a different drivers
drivers license. Only just under 6 % of these drivers managed

49+3+201117 21+6+3532
cab is not a problem for me.

range reveals (as with the willingness to drive several Figure 27: to obtain a license in this way.
Way in which drivers license was obtained
trucks) that agreement decreases as the drivers operating A drivers cab is a
workplace like any other.
range increases. For short-distance transport drivers,
Figure 28:
switching cabs is much less of an issue than for a long- Hardly applies Rather applies Other
16.7 % Way in which drivers obtained a license
distance driver. (n = 2,131) if after September 10, 2009

Privately
49.1 %
Fully financed by
the employer Privately
11 % 21.4 %
Other
31.7 %

Military service Partly financed by

20.0 % the employer
Partly financed
6.3 %
by the employer
3.1 %

(n = 2,170)
Fully financed
by the employer
34.9 % Military
service
5. 5 %
Differentiating the results by the drivers age reveals that the (n = 129)

percentage of drivers licenses obtained during military service

falls to below 15 % among drivers younger than 35. Among
photo: Karl-Heinz Augustin

drivers that are 50 and over, more than 26 % obtained their

license during military service. An analysis of the percentage
of drivers licenses that were financed fully or partly by the
employer (14.1 %) is striking compared with the first study, as
this figure has increased by over three percentage points. In
this context, reference should also be made to the results of
the apprentice survey which has since shown that companies
are very willing to provide funding for apprentices to obtain a
drivers license.
35 This agreement can be assessed by using variance. The variance is two if all evaluation criteria from 1 (applies fully) through 5 (does not apply at all) were mentioned equally often.
In the other extreme case (only one criterion was specified by everyone) the variance equals zero.

56 57
 C 8
C 9
Professional Driver Survey Professional Driver Survey
Tasks of Professional Drivers Satisfaction With the Profession
and its Attractiveness

Tasks of Professional Satisfaction With the Profession

Drivers and its Attractiveness

Apart from driving, the professional driver has other tasks
including activities such as loading and unloading as well as
other services. Other services tend to play a secondary role
among current drivers, as Figure 29 illustrates. Segmenting
drivers by operating range or by operating type reveals no
differences on how tasks are assessed. It can also be seen
that most drivers tend to assess waiting times during loading
and unloading neutrally.
Figure 29:
Tasks of professional drivers
I frequently have to
load and unload
the truck myself
I am my own boss
Assessment of driving times and rest periods Figure 31:
Assessment of driving times and rest periods by operating range
Results mentioned above have shown that the legally
prescribed driving times in long-distance transport are
I believe I am excessively checked
almost entirely used. The assessment of the currently appli-
cable Regulation on Driving Times and Rest Periods by It is almost impossible to actually
observe the regulations
professional drivers is especially important in this context.
All drivers clearly express a preference for more flexibility A shorter rest period while on the road
would be completely sufficient
regarding driving times and rest periods, while retaining total
driving time over two weeks. This assessment is confirmed
The break regulations are OK
by the high satisfaction with the applicable weekly total
More flexibility in terms of driving and
driving times and rest periods. Driver approval of the de- rest periods is desirable provided that
the total fortnightly driving time is not
mand for a reduction in rest periods on the road is therefore exceeded.
only limited. Drivers are very indifferent when they assess The weekly driving and rest periods are,
on the whole, satisfactory
the checks or compliance with the Regulation on Driving
Times and Rest Periods. Seen on average across all driv- Does not apply Fully applies

when I am on the road

with my truck ers, drivers do not feel they are subjected to excessive international long-
distance transport
national long-
distance transport
regional
(up to 150 km)
local
(up to 50 km)
checks, with the majority able to comply with the regulations. (n=2,103)
I predominantly only have
to drive and experience
few waiting times during
loading and unloading Looking at the results based on the drivers usual operating
Figure 30:
I predominantly only have Assessment of current driving times and rest periods ranges and comparing the assessment for each operating range
to drive yet experience
lots of waiting times during against the average highlights a differentiated assessment of the
loading and unloading
More flexibility in terms of driving and rest Regulation on Driving Times and Rest Periods, as long-distance
I frequently have to perform periods is desirable provided that the total
other services (e.g. fortnightly driving time is not exceeded. transport drivers expect to be restricted through the Regulation
provision of advice,
assembly, fillings, ...) The weekly driving and rest periods are, on Driving Times and Rest Periods due to their higher driving
on the whole, satisfactory
time. The various assessments can be seen from Figure 3136.
Hardly applies Rather applies
The break regulations are OK Short-distance and regional transport drivers are therefore much
photo: Volker Hammermeister

(n = 2,170)
more satisfied with the Regulation on Driving Times and Rest
I believe I am excessively checked
Periods than their colleagues from the long-distance transport
It is almost impossible to actually
observe the regulations
segment. Therefore, it is not surprising that long-distance trans-
port drivers would like to see more flexibility for driving times and
A shorter rest period while on the road
would be completely sufficient rest periods, while at the same time they tend to reject shorter
Does not apply Fully applies breaks. Short-distance and regional transport drivers tend to be
(n=2,124) more in favor of shorter break time while on the road. When it
comes to the assessment of checks on driving times and rest
periods, only international long-distance transport drivers feel
36 Bars pointing towards the right indicate greater agreement with the statement made
and bars pointing towards the left less agreement. The opposing assessments they are subjected to above-average excessive checks. Howev-
expressed by international long-distance transport drivers and local distribution
drivers are particularly striking. er, the survey does not provide any reasons why this is the case.

58 59
 C 10
Professional Driver Survey 10 Professional Driver Survey
Satisfaction With the Profession Starting Points for
and its Attractiveness Boosting Attractiveness

Stress factors
The occupation of professional driver is generally regarded
as stressful. The survey predefined ten stress factors in all,
which the professional drivers could assess. Some stress
factors were added compared with the first study, while others
were omitted. The greatest stress factor among drivers is
when their vehicle suffers a fault (cf. Figure 32), followed by
the general traffic situation on the road. It can be seen that
tailbacks as in the first study do not cause drivers any
particular stress, whereas unforeseen waiting times during
loading and unloading do create stress for drivers. In addition
to the predefined stress factors, drivers could also state
another stress factor. Altogether 126 unprompted responses
were given, of which the parking lot situation at just under
40 % was mentioned as an important stress factor. Further-
more, tailgating colleagues and generally the issue of road
rage were mentioned more frequently as stress factors.
Scrutinizing the three most important stress factors and
analyzing them by operating range reveals no differences
with Faults affecting the vehicle. The situation is, however,
different with the stress factor General traffic situation on the
road. This situation puts stress on long-distance transport
drivers much more than on short-distance transport drivers.
The same applies to the stress factor Unforeseeable waiting
times. Short-distance transport drivers consider this much
less critical than their long-distance transport colleagues. As
expected, the way in which drivers assess sleeping conditions
on the road also differs as a stress factor. National and inter-
national long-distance transport drivers feel significantly more
stressed by the conditions while on the road than regional or
local transport drivers, who can normally sleep at home.
The parking space situation and the
aggressiveness in road traffic trigger
Starting Points for Boosting
Attractiveness
One of the key issues in road haulage is the problem of
young drivers. Around 45 % of drivers are currently 50 or
over. If the retirement age remains unchanged, around
15 000 to 20 000 drivers will leave the profession every
year. In addition to dual training to become a professional
driver, which cannot plug the emerging gap with 3 500
apprenticeship contracts concluded every year (see also:
Chapter D), the aim is also to make the profession
attractive, for lateral entrants in particular.
From the drivers perspective, the most important starting
There is widespread consensus among the surveyed
drivers regarding most starting points. The defined measure
Transshipment transport with regular return to base is an
exception: Drivers in regional and short-distance transport
view this measure for making the job more attractive far
more positively than drivers who normally work in interna-
tional long-distance transport. Scheduled transport drivers
also more readily welcome this measure.
Figure 34:
Regular return to base

a great deal of stress. point is better remuneration, closely followed by an improve-

ment in the image of the profession among the public, as Other (tramp,
Figure 32: special lines)
Stress factors for professional drivers Splitting all drivers into the two operating types scheduled Figure 33 graphically illustrates. The image improvement
transport and other (tramp, specialist transport) reveals no is therefore welcomed more than better planning reliability Scheduled
transport
different assessments of the stress factors, with the exception of working time.
Damage/defects to my
vehicle are stressful of the sleeping conditions on the road. Scheduled transport international long-
distance transport
Traffic situations on the drivers feel significantly less stressed by the sleeping condi-
roads stress me Figure 33:
tions on the road than drivers in other types of transport. Starting points for boosting attractiveness national long-
Unforeseeable waiting periods distance transport
during loading and unloading
stress me
Combining all stress factors into a single average on the Better remuneration
regional
(up to 150 km)
Average of all statements
basis of the individual assessments allows the following
Improvement in the
local
Long absences from home statement to be made regarding a drivers average sense of public image
(up to 50 km)
are stressful of the occupation
stress: The sense of stress falls with age (and with generally Better planning
I experience a high level of time Do not really agree Rather agree
of weekend
pressure/lots of stress associated greater professional experience). Professional experience working times (n= 2,098)
with deadlines
and age thus brings a certain relaxed attitude. Conversely,
Sleeping situations while on Better apprenticeship
the road stress me the perceived stress when carrying out the job increases as
Professional drivers
Regular customer complaints a factor of weekly working hours. This also applies as driving should primarily
annoy me drive only
time increases.
I have to load and unload the Increase own
truck myself very regularly. responsibility
This stresses me of the driver
Swaps with other
I get particularly stressed vehicles en route with
in traffic jams regular return to the
location
Do not really agree Rather agree
Higher agreement
(n=2,135)
(n= 2,098)

60 61
 C 11 Professional Driver Survey
Assessment of Future
Developments

Assessment of Possible somewhat more skeptically. In particular, they believe the

driver profession will become even more challenging in future
Future Developments than colleagues with less professional experience. On the
other hand, there also is a significant correlation between the
assessment of the restriction on autonomy through technical
Figure 35:
Future of the driver profession development: As professional experience increases, so does
approval, which conversely means that younger drivers tend
The job of professional driver will become
more challenging in the future
to see less restriction to their autonomy through additional
The driver's freedom to act will become technologies.
more limited in the future due to technical
monitoring options
International competition will change the
conditions in my operating area Most drivers are skeptical
Technical developments will make the job
easier
regarding a future improvement
The percentage of female drivers will
of their situation.
increase

Traveling times and routes will become
longer
The lack of drivers will lead to an increased
reputation of driving as a job
Potential earnings will rise sharply
The job of professional driver will become
a 40-hour-a-week job
Finally, drivers were asked to provide a subjective view of the
professions future prospects. As seen in the first study, drivers
tended to view future prospects neutrally on the whole. How-
ever, the number of drivers agreeing with the statement was
higher than those that disagreed. The professions future
prospects are assessed much more negatively as age increas-

(n= 2,090)
Higher agreement es. The different views of the driver types are also interesting.
While there is a fair amount of consensus regarding the assess-
There is widespread consensus among the surveyed drivers ment of future prospects among the Called and Committed,
that the profession of driver will become even more challeng- the Rationalist tends to view the professions future prospects
ing in future. It is interesting that drivers tend to see technical more skeptically.
developments rather as limiting their autonomy than as a
useful aid that will make their daily working life easier. The
Figure 36:
overwhelming majority of drivers also see that international Future prospects of the driver profession
competition will change existing working conditions. Breaking
down this statement into the usual operating ranges, interna-
Called
tional long-distance transport drivers tend to agree with this
Committed
statement more than regional or local transport drivers, as
expected. Drivers are skeptical of increasing earnings poten- Rationalists

tial even though it is seen as a measure for making the job Under 25

more attractive. Such skepticism can also be found when

25 to 34
assessing whether the profession will be a 40-hour job in
future. 35 to 49

Total

Analyzing the two possible future developments with the 50 and over
highest approval and taking into account drivers previous

photo: lassedesignen_Fotolia
Hardly applies Rather applies
professional experience, it can be seen that drivers with longer
professional experience tend to assess future developments (n= 2,132)

62
 D
Young professionals
Initial Situation and
Demand Development
In an increasingly digitized world, where the
touch screen is often the preferred medium
for services and social contacts, values and
competencies change decisive criteria for
finding qualified staff in freight transport.

Initial Situation and Initial situation

Demand Development
Young professionals - The first way to resolve the young
driver issue? Career prospects, expectations, and views of
Generation Y based on an apprentice survey
The recently lamented market share loss of German com-
mon carriers contrasts with short and medium-term fore-
casts that predict solid expansion of road haulage in Germa-
ny.37 The growth estimates of the experts polled in this study
also point into the same direction. At the same time, howev-
er, many experts see the shortage of drivers as posing a risk
to growth. The accelerated initial qualification under the
Professional Drivers Qualification Act (BKrFQG) (the so-
called second way38) has thus far changed nothing, espe-
cially also after the initial qualification has not managed to
retain drivers in the profession. In this respect, the ability to
meet demand over the medium term on the basis of the
second way alone needs to be viewed with a fair amount
of skepticism. For this reason, this study focuses on the
first way of meeting demand, namely dual training for
professional drivers. This first way must be subjected to a
comprehensive review, particularly in light of the overall very
low number of apprenticeships. This will then allow strate-
gies for attracting junior staff to be developed - an approach
that is more necessary than ever given the high rate of
contracts being terminated, which in turn jeopardizes the
supply of future staff.

d:
Table7:

e rs W a n te New apprenticeship contracts signed and rate of terminated

Newcom
contracts39

e d
Termination rate

itt
Year New apprenticeship contracts signed

m
(in percent)

Young, C o m 2010 2,466 39.8 %

2011 3,264 43.7 %

Intere st ed?

2012 3,534 43.7 %

2013 3,450 43.7 %

37 Cf. INTRAPLAN/Ralf Ratzenberger (2014), p. 1.
38 BGL (2013a), p. 89.
39 Apprenticeship contracts new 2010: BIBB (2010), Table 67; termination rates 2010: (n=2,151)
BIBB (2010a), Table A5. 7-4, p. 178; apprenticeship contracts new 2011: BIBB (2011),
Table 67; termination rates 2011: BIBB (2012a), Table A4.7-2, p. 170; new contracts
signed 2012: BIBB (2012a), Table 69; source of termination rates as in 2011; new
contracts 2013: BIBB (2013), Table 67; termination rates 2013: BIBB (2013a): Table
A4.7-4, p. 188; slight variations between electronic version and print version with the
new contracts.

64 65

The following figures are indicative of the pressure to act:
Currently, around 40 % of road haulage drivers subject to
compulsory social security contributions are 50 years old
and over. If the effective retirement age remains unchanged
among professional drivers at the current 60 for men and 58
for women, this means that some 300 000 qualified profes-
sional drivers will need to be replaced by the year 2025. This
forecast also fails to take into account the assumed market
growth. In the period 2010 (2 466) through 2013 (3 450) the
40
number of new apprenticeship contracts signed increased by
around 1 000. The positive effect of the new apprenticeship
photo: Volker Hammermeister
contracts signed is offset by the high rates of contract termina-
tion clearly illustrated in Table 7. Based on this data, it is clear
that the current program is not covering the demand needed
to replace the minimum 15 000 to 20 000 professional drivers
leaving the job every year. Other factors compound the situa-
tion surrounding the acquisition of junior staff through appren-
ticeships. Over the medium term, regardless of the desire for
up skilling , demographics alone will cause the number of
41
potential apprentices to fall annually by approximately 1.5 %
between 2016 and 2025.42 The greater drop in junior high
The demand for young school dropouts, who currently dominate apprenticeship
programs to train professional drivers, further exacerbates
professionals is not even
the situation. Additional entry risks arise from the analysis of
close to be covered. values, professional expectations, educational decisions, and
lifestyle developments of todays determinant Generation Y.
For this generation, personal lifestyles and professional reality
seem to be such a mismatch sometimes that certain appren-
ticeship professions and the associated employment relation-
ships do not seem sufficiently attractive and are therefore
avoided.
40 Cf. BGL (2013a), p. 89
41 The findings of the 2014 National Report on Education go to the heart of this problem: For the first time, dual training and the university sector are reporting an equal number of students
embarking on courses; the relationship between these two training segments needs to be redefined. While the number of new students entering dual training has been falling for a long time,
the numbers of new university students has been rising continually. (Authoring Group Educational Reporting (2014), p. 4/5).
42 Cf. KMK (2011), Table 4.12, p. 60; (own calculation).
43 Cf. DGFP (2011), p. 10.
44 Cf. Rump/Eilers (2013).
45 Cf. Calmbach among others (2012). While considerable differences are seen here, fairly similar views are also expressed in terms of performance standards, career, and material expecta-
tions regarding the future. The expectations of the lower milieu groups are lowered in relation to what they expect to achieve but not in relation to general lifestyles though.
46 Cf. Parment (2013), p. 53.
66
Generation Y as reflected by research
Generation Y refers to the group of individuals born from the
early 1990s, which currently represents the age cohort of
18 through 25-year-olds, the current group of individuals
looking to move into the labor market.43 Generation Y can
be characterized by increased demands for compatibility
between education and career aspirations, increased require-
ments on quality of work, and greater demands regarding
work-life balance. The development points to increasingly
fragile consensus between older and younger working
generations in relation to requirements and possibilities in
the employment regime.44
It is not possible to talk about entirely homogeneous values
and life orientations of 18 through 25-year-olds since there
are considerable differences based on their upbringing. 45
However, there is a number of orientations and behavioral
patterns that emerge on the whole and apply on a fairly
widespread basis to education, the professional working
world, and to the associated value and performance prefer-
ences. For instance, virtually all youth studies stress that
adolescents demand a high degree of personal freedom at
work. Overall, professional activity should not conflict with
personal interests, inclinations, career plans, or remuneration,
and the ideas regarding self-realization. Work must above
all be interesting and offer individual development, career,
and remuneration prospects.46
Generation Y accepts the rules of a society based on person-
al performance. Qualifications and qualification possibilities
47 Cf. Albert/Hurrelmann/Quenzel (2013).
48 Prager/Wieland (2005).
49 Cf. NIHK (2012).
Young professionals
Initial Situation and
Demand Development
are the necessary key to success for them.47 The fact that
those that cannot demonstrate academic success or other
performance characteristics tend to view their future skepti-
cally is a logical conclusion. On the other hand, educational
losers are also more willing to compromise when it comes
to the ideal job, unlike their highly academic peers. However,
this group as a consequence of more intensive environment
ties regionally is also less mobile. This in turn makes this
group much less willing to try to obtain an apprenticeship
placement that is some distance away.48
Overall it can be said that:49
For most adolescents, a good working climate and good
social relationships in the apprenticeship company are
very important.
Good, understanding instructors are indispensable.
Enjoying the job/apprenticeship is a top priority for the
future apprentices.
Autonomy and leeway at work are indispensable.
Apprentices demand career and development opportunities
from their future company including further training and
skills improvement.
It also is important to very important for most young
professionals to have sufficient leisure time during the
apprenticeship and in the subsequent job.
67

What is the correlation between
the described characteristics
of Generation Y and the require-
ments of the driver profession?
Basic question for opinions among
apprentices of the industry.
50 Rump/Eilers (2013), p. 176.
51 Rump/Eilers (2013), p. 180.
68
Job security:
The pursuit of a secure job can be
clearly seen in virtually all surveys
among adolescents and young adults.
Thus, [] job security is cited as one of
the decisive criteria for selecting a future
employer and surveys across all educa-
tional levels demonstrate similarly high
values for job security particularly
among adolescents and young adults
with basic educational qualifications. 50
These cross-section results mean the
apprentice surveys classification of
future prospects needs to ask whether
job security is seen in the desired (driv-
er) profession or whether and in what
forms such security is actually demand-
ed. Analysis is required to determine
what role job security plays as a key
motive when choosing a profession.
photo: Volker Hammermeister
Scope for influencing,
leeway, and develop-
ment opportunities:
As a product of their socialization, an
interesting and challenging work envi-
ronment for the younger generation
includes the opportunity to assume
responsibility, make decisions, realize
their own aspirations to some extent,
and experience autonomy. 51
This raises the question of whether
professional driver apprentices follow
the mainstream and have this qualitative
requirement regarding their subsequent
activity, or whether the future profession-
al drivers attach less importance to this
aspect. It needs to be analyzed whether
the apprentices see suitable leeway in
the driver profession at all.
Performance-related
remuneration:
At the same time, it can be seen that
remuneration in terms of a hygiene
factor is only one aspect that influences
the attractiveness of an employment
relationship for adolescents and young
adults, and no longer assumes pivotal
importance as for previous genera-
tions.52
Nobody would dispute that over the past
few years professional drivers have
been located financially in the lower mid-
range income groups despite moderate
salary increases. Thus far, there is no
answer to the question whether and how
apprentices articulate in particular their
wishes in this respect and how important
the factor salary actually is. This also
includes whether apprentice remunera-
tion is fair from the apprentices perspec-
tive and whether they expect increases
in this respect over the medium term.
52 Rump/Eilers (2013), p. 185 f.
53 Rump/Eilers (2013), p. 190 f.
Young professionals
Initial Situation and
Demand Development
Work-life balance:
The younger generation is very aware of living in a meritocracy and does not shy
away from hard work to achieve their ambitious goals. At the same time, they also
are aware of the risks associated with high levels of occupational stress. They
therefore aim, as already mentioned, to achieve a balance between performance
and life enjoyment. Such are the findings of numerous independent studies. []
notions such as work-life balance or reconcilability of job and family are acknowl-
edged well ahead of status symbols or career.53
Professional drivers particularly in international long-distance transport cannot
assume that they will be able to structure their leisure time in a regular, preplanned,
and socially balanced manner. However, it is not clear whether that is important in
terms of the future for this professional group during the apprenticeship period, nor if
operating areas might preferably be chosen where the work-life balance is deemed
good, say in short-distance transport.
Scope for influencing,
leewayand development
Job security
opportunities
Basis for the
apprentice survey
Performance-related
Work-life balance
remuneration
The studies on Generation Y uncover various questions that are crucial to ensuring
the attractiveness of the driver profession and for guaranteeing competition. The
following analysis and the interpretation of the data illustrate the kind of wishes,
expectations, and views that professional driver apprentices have.
69
 D 1 Young professionals
Apprentice survey

Apprentice Survey Table 8:

School leaving certificates of those surveyed
short-distance good transport, more than those categorized as
Single (51 %).

School leaving certificate Percentage

Sample size, scope, design, and objectives of
the apprentice survey.
The written survey conducted focuses exclusively on ap-
prentices looking to qualify as a professional driver. In
equates to around two thirds of apprentices between 20 and No school leaving certificate
24 years of age.
Junior high school
Secondary school level certificate
At 13.6 % a fairly large proportion relates to other operating
2.6 area. Here, heavy (goods) transport as well as the waste
disposal sector were mentioned very frequently.
52.0
Analyzing solely those looking for a job in road haulage

31+40+29
(Mittlere Reife)/technical college 39.8
Figure 38: certificate (FOSR)/vocational college (BK)
addition to sociodemographic characteristics, motives, Distribution across years of the apprenticeship service, around 70 % of these state that they prefer
Technical college entrance qualifications
2.7
views, and assessments regarding the apprenticeship and (FHSR) short-distance haulage.
the profession were collected. In May 2014, 1 360 question- University-entrance diploma (Abitur) 2.3

naires were distributed at twelve vocational schools in eight (n=699)

federal states in Germany. The feedback produced 704
surveys that could be evaluated, equivalent to a feedback
rate of 51.7 %. In effect, the survey reached around one out
of ten apprentices aiming to become a professional driver.
Apprenticeship company size and desired
3rd appren-
1st appren-
company size after the apprenticeship.
ticeship year
ticeship year
28.9 %
30.7 %
The largest group of those surveyed states their current 50.4 % of surveyed apprentices are being trained in a large
marital status as Single (78.4 %). Just under a fifth of those enterprise with more than 250 employees, and 49.6 % in small
surveyed live in a permanent partnership or are married. and mid-sized enterprises. While around 27 % of the appren-
In one question the apprentices were asked to state the tices from large enterprises would prefer, in the future, to work
operating area in which they would like to work in future. in a small to mid-sized enterprise (SME), only just over 12 %

14+61+25
Figure 37:
Age distribution Short-distance goods transport is clearly the most popular of apprentices in an SME would rather have a large enterprise
2nd apprenticeship
year 40.4 % operating area at just under 54 %, followed by long-distance as their future employer. Small to mid-sized enterprises tend
(n=696)
goods transport at 23.3 %. These percentages vary slightly to be well placed.
19 years and between the years of the apprenticeship, but there is no
25 and over
under
25.3 %
14.2 % The distribution of the surveyed apprentices across the years statistically significant correlation between year of the ap-
of the apprenticeship is not even. Around 30 % are in the first prenticeship and desired operating area. This also applies to
or third year of the apprenticeship. Third-year apprentices the marital status of apprentices and the desired operating
already have a clearer view of the profession. So it can be area. Nonetheless, the data from the survey shows that the
assumed that this group of already experienced apprentices apprentices living in a partnership (62 %) tend to work in
20 to 24 can assess their future profession on a sounder basis.
60.5 %

Table 9:
Differentiating the distribution of school leaving certificates of Distribution by future desired operating area
(n=699)
those surveyed clearly illustrates the very low percentage of
Operating area All apprentices By year of the apprenticeship By marital status
apprentices with no school leaving certificate (2.6 %), and (all figures in %) surveyed

Sociodemographic characteristics of the those with the junior high school leaving certificate, which is 1. 2. 3.
Married/
Single
partnership
surveyed apprentices the most common at 52.0 %. This distribution of school leav-
4.4 % female and 95.6 % male apprentices took part in the ing certificates essentially also matches the corresponding Local public transport 7.9 6.5 8.6 8.6 8.0 7.8

survey. Just fewer than 96 % are German nationals. The distribution of the professional drivers surveyed in Chapter C. Long-distance passenger transport 1.6 3.7 0.4 1.0 0.0 2.0

average age of the apprentices is 22.8 years. The oldest Road haulage service, short-distance 53.6 54.7 49.6 58.6 62.0 51.5
person surveyed was 51 years old, the youngest stated their
Road haulage service, long-distance 23.4 22.0 26.3 20.7 19.0 24.4
date of birth as 1997, making them 16 years old. The three
Other 13.6 13.1 15.1 11.1 10.9 14. 3
most popular birth cohorts are those born in 1992, 1993,
and 1994. These three age categories correspond to around (n= 690)

40 % of those that are currently on an apprenticeship, which

70 71
 D 2 YOUNG PROFESSIONALS
Reasons for Choosing
the Apprenticeship

Reasons for Choosing
the Apprenticeship
The apprentices motives for selecting the profession are
crucially important to future recruitment opportunities. Insights
into the professions characteristics and apprenticeship bene-
fits, which prompted individuals to start the apprenticeship,
can be used as part of apprenticeship marketing. Thus, cus-
tomized targeting concepts that take into account adolescents
have become much less important during the course of the
apprenticeship. Whereas first-year apprentices on average
mentioned 4.5 motives, this figure falls to 3.3 with responses
from apprentices in the third year.
Differentiating the apprentices by desired operating area
(only short-distance goods transport and long-distance
photo: Sandra Moser
haulage) the motives also differ even if less clearly be-
tween both groups, as the following figure illustrates. If the
desired operating area is short-distance goods transport,
there are only two motives, namely Secure job prospects
and Lack of alternatives that are mentioned more frequent-
For the apprentices who did not mention Enjoyment of
driving as a reason for selecting the apprenticeship, par-
ticular importance was given to the secure prospects offered
by their future profession. To a certain extent, these individu-
als however also become drivers due to a lack of alterna-
tives and/or expect good potential earnings. Extrinsic mo-
tives tend to be the most common among this group of
apprentices.
Figure 39:
Reasons for apprenticeship selection,
split into desired operating area

preferences can be developed. ly than with apprentices interested in long-distance haulage.

Table 10: Reasons for own apprenticeship selection54
All other motives were mentioned far less often as motives. I enjoy driving

Adolescents motives for choosing Place Motive Percentage The job offers an opportunity to get

the profession are important for HR 1 Enjoyment of driving 72.7 Table 11:
to know cities/countries

marketing especially in the transport

It is an interesting job
Reasons for apprenticeship selection, split into year of the
2 Secure job prospects 47.6 apprenticeship
industry. Own boss during the journey

3 Foreign countries and cities 41.8 My parents are also professional

1st 2nd 3rd
Enjoyment of driving is as with active drivers the key Motive apprentice- apprentice- apprentice-
drivers
4 Own boss during the journey 41.6 ship year ship year ship year
motive for apprenticeship selection, accounting for more than Secure job prospects

72 % of mentions. The presumed job security of the profes- 5 It is an interesting job 40.9 I enjoy driving 79.9 % 78.7 % 59.9 %
It is a responsible occupation
sion comes at some distance in second place. Getting to The job offers an opportunity to get to know
53.7 % 44.1 % 31.2 %
6 It is a responsible occupation 36.6 cities/countries The apprenticeship is interesting
know foreign countries and cities follows in third place. This is
Secure job prospects 52.4 % 46.0 % 41.4 %
surprising given only under a quarter of those surveyed intend 7 Parents also professional drivers 34.9
Potential earnings

to work in long-distance transport. The autonomy motive 8 The apprenticeship is interesting 28.3
Own boss during the journey 48.2 % 45.5 % 33.8 %
A lack of alternatives
highlighted by those surveyed comes in almost on par: 42 % It is an interesting job 46.3 % 41.7 % 33.8 %
9 Earnings potential 27.3 0 20 40 60 80
see the attractiveness of the profession in the ability to be
The apprenticeship is interesting 43.3 % 28.4 % 17.2 %
your own boss during the journey. Overall, 40 % believe the 10 A lack of alternatives 8.8 Desired operating area Desired operating area
Long-distance haulage Short-distance haulage
It is a responsible occupation 42.7 % 31.3 % 29.3 %
driver profession is interesting. In combination with Enjoy- It is an interesting job; possible even without school
11 1.7
leaving certificate
ment of driving this is a clear indication that young people Potential earnings 37.2 % 25.6 % 19.7 %

becoming drivers intend to pursue an interesting, varied 12 Intermediate level of apprenticeship 1.4
My parents are also professional drivers 36.0 % 40.8 % 27.4 %
profession (ideal motive). By contrast, the majority of those Obtaining drivers license
13 Unprompted responses 7. 2 A lack of alternatives 9.8 % 9.0 % 8.9 %
surveyed does not see the material motive (good earnings At the time of the survey, 84 % of those surveyed had a C/CE
Other 5.5 % 6.6 % 8.3 %
potential was decisive for selecting the profession) as a prima- (n=700) or D1/D license. It can be seen overall that a) by far the largest
ry reason: Only 27.3 % state this as a motive for selecting the It is an interesting job; without completed
vocational training
3.0 % 1.4 % 1.3 % contingent of apprentices already have a drivers license
profession. Only just under 9 % of those surveyed state they Analyzing the stated apprenticeship motives by year of the before completing the apprenticeship and that b) companies
Intermediate level of apprenticeship 1.8 % 2.4 % -
embarked on the apprenticeship due to a lack of alternatives. apprenticeship, the following table shows a clear disillusion- undertake to fully finance the acquisition of the drivers license
ment of apprentices. Apprentices in the first year tend to (n= 698) for more than 90 % of license holders. In addition to appren-
mention ideal motives much more often. Assuming that ticeship costs, the apprenticeship companies are therefore also
third-year apprentices would originally have mentioned the investing in young drivers where required taking advantage
same relevant motives just as frequently at the start of their of training grants from the Federal Office for Goods Transport
apprenticeship, it is striking that all apprenticeship motives (BAG).
54 Multiple answers were possible.

72 73
 D 3
YOUNG PROFESSIONALS YOUNG PROFESSIONALS
Reasons for Choosing Reasons for Contract Termination
the Apprenticeship

The apprentices were not only surveyed on their own motives agree much less with the statement You can cope with the Possible Reasons for Contract Termination
for selecting the profession but also asked to state additional level of apprenticeship even with average or even poor school
aspects that may make the profession appear attractive to grades. Segmenting the apprentices by the stated motive
others. Aspects mentioned included in particular the practical Enjoyment of driving (Yes/No) for the selection of the profes-
relevance and variety of the apprenticeship. Also, the variety of sion, the assessments of the apprenticeship motives differ The contract termination rate for the Table 12:
Presumed reasons for contract termination
development opportunities is considered interesting. By con- significantly for the motives set out in Figure 42. In the case of apprenticeship to become a profes-
trast, the level of apprenticeship remuneration is seen as much intrinsic motives for selecting the apprenticeship, the appren- sional driver is high. The appren-
less attractive. ticeship is assessed as much more attractive, as the agree- tices surveyed were therefore asked
Suppositions regarding
ment rates show. to put forward suggestions for the Place early termination of Percentage
apprenticeship
Prospective professional drivers causes. Two thirds of those sur-
particularly appreciate the proximity Figure 41:
veyed point to Unfavorable working 1
Unfavorable working
conditions/overtime
66.2

to practice but also the apprentice- Aspects that make the apprenticeship attractive, conditions or overtime as being
assessments differentiated by year of the apprenticeship responsible, closely followed by
ships high level of diversity. 2 Trouble in the company 61.3
Trouble between apprentices with
The apprenticeship boasts a high level of instructors and/or in the company. Disappointment with the
Figure 40: practical relevance 3
quality of the apprenticeship
51.2
Aspects that make the apprenticeship attractive Around more than half view short-
The apprenticeship is also extremely interesting comings with the quality of the Apprenticeship was not the
in terms of theory 4 47.8
The apprenticeship boasts a high level of practical apprenticeship as a possible reason desired profession
relevance The apprenticeship offers opportunities to progress in
the job thanks to elective subjects as well as further
for termination. Just under half of
The instructors are not good
5 46.9
On the whole, the apprenticeship is interesting and continuing education at a later date those surveyed also suggested as a (methodology/content)
and versatile

The range of topics in the apprenticeship will later

The range of topics in the apprenticeship
will later open up a vast amount
possible reason that the apprentice-
Concern about future
open up a vast amount of different employment
opportunities
of different employment opportunities ship profession had not been the 6
workload
31.3

It is possible to reach the level of the apprenticeship

profession the dropouts wanted to
The level of apprenticeship pay is attractive
with average or even poor academic achievements Level of the apprenticeship is
pursue. 7
too high
26.1

The apprenticeship offers opportunities to progress

in the job thanks to elective subjects as well as It is possible to reach the level of the apprenticeship
with average or even poor academic achievements I have also thought about
further and continuing education at a later date Overall, in the apprentices opinion 8 dropping out of the appren- 22.7
The apprenticeship is also extremely interesting ticeship
in terms of theory On the whole, the apprenticeship is interesting the numerous contract terminations
and versatile
are primarily due to physical and 9
Disappointment with reality of
21.0
the job
The level of apprenticeship pay is attractive Less agreement More agreement mental stress as well as shortcom-

(n=705)
0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 1st apprenticeship year 2nd apprenticeship year 3rd apprenticeship year ings in the quality of the apprentice- 10
Those without a school
leaving certificate tend to 17.4
(n=692) ship/instructors. This also coincides drop out

The assessment of the aforementioned apprenticeship mo- photo: Ralf Gosch_Fotolia with general findings from appren- (n= 694)

tives differs in accordance with the length of the apprentice- Figure 42: ticeship research.
ship. Third-year apprentices tend to agree far less than aver- Assessment of apprenticeship motives by
enjoyment/no enjoyment of driving
age, as the following graphic shows. Overall, the graphic also
The apprenticeship boasts a high
demonstrates decreasing agreement with all statements as level of practical relevance
the length of the apprenticeship increases. However, the
The apprenticeship offers Without motive:
relevant assessments on the level of apprenticeship prove opportunities to progress in the job I enjoy driving
Motive:
interesting. Although agreement with The apprenticeship is thanks to elective subjects
I enjoy driving
as well as further and continuing
interesting and varied overall decreases during the course of education at a later date

the apprenticeship period, there is a change in regards to the On the whole, the apprenticeship
is interesting and versatile
school requirements for the apprenticeship, since third-year
apprentices (a phenomenon already seen in the second year) 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 %

74 75
 D 4
Industry Image and
Potential Optimizations
A positive industry image is one of several very important require-
ments when it comes to successfully recruiting young drivers.
For this reason, apprentices were also asked to give their
opinion in this respect. The fact that the profession is regarded
as family unfriendly was seen as doing the greatest damage to
the image. Almost three quarters agree with this statement.
This agreement is independent of the current marital status.
Figure 43:
Views on the image of the industry and profession
The job is seen as anti-family
as the working hours barely
permit a normal family life
The job hardly permits regular
recreational activities with friends
Overall, the job is seen as stressful
Many people automatically connect the
job with an extremely strenuous activity
(one-sided physical strain, time-related
stress, and unfavorable working times)
The job is considered to be poorly paid
The job is generally seen as a job
with a negative image
Professional drivers are considered
to be an occupational group
with low qualifications
The job is considered less attractive
because it hardly offers any promotion
prospects or career opportunities
The negative reputation is linked to
the image of the sector as
damaging to the environment
0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 %
(n=695)
Along the same lines, the view that the driver profession
substantially impairs Time for leisure and friends comes in
second place over two thirds see this as being the case
regardless of their future desired job. Many of the apprentices
also mention stress and physical strain as responsible for the
negative image. By contrast, the environmental footprint of
road haulage transport, which is often presented as negative,
does not appear to be a reason for the professions negative
image among apprentices.
76
YOUNG PROFESSIONALS
Industry Image and
Potential Optimizations
It follows logically from all the theories currently under discus-
sion regarding the choice of profession that while the impor-
tance of job prospects and potential earnings may vary, they
are always important factors in deciding which profession to
choose. The surveyed apprentices assess this as follows:
More than three quarters agree with the statement that profes-
sional driver salaries are not commensurate with the workload.
A basic salary that is more in line with the work undertaken is
a basic demand. However, the additional remuneration of
overtime or the level of expenses, particularly in long-distance
transport, is also seen as just as important. Only 12 % of
those surveyed believe professional drivers are on the whole
suitably paid.
Figure 44:
Views on job security and assessment of remuneration
The average salaries are not
appropriate in light of the activities
and stresses associated with being
a professional driver
Later, I would like to receive
performance-oriented pay (based upon
distances, quality of work, extra pay for
night journeys, etc.)
Overtime and additional stresses,
especially in the field of long-distance
traffic are not additionally
remunerated enough
Overtime and additional stresses,
especially in the field of
long-distance traffic are not
additionally remunerated enough
In my opinion, the job does not offer an
above-average level of job security
I am willing to accept low remuneration
due to the fact that the profession usually
offers secure employment
Overall, the job is adequately paid
0% 20 % 40 %
(n=696)
photo: Ansorge Logistik
photo: Thomas Kppers
In regards to the question of what levers
can be used to boost attractiveness,
the apprentices prioritize better remu-
neration at almost 87 %. The demand
for better planning reliability of working
hours for family and leisure is ranked
second. Three quarters of those sur-
veyed rate nurturing the image of the
profession via improved public relations
as a promising starting point for making
it more attractive. In contrast to these
fairly high levels of agreement, Assign-
ments also abroad and More leeway
for drivers to arrange their own work
with well under 50 % tend to be included
among the potential options that are
deemed less promising for boosting the
attractiveness of the industry.
The apprentices expressed the following
views on work-life balance: Just under
two thirds agree with the statement that
a boring job would not be something
they could tolerate, directly followed by
the statement: Everything has to be
right for me payment, career opportu-
nities, and sufficient leisure time. In the
apprentices view, clearly the entire
package that makes up the driver pro-
fession must therefore be right. It is
difficult to single out individual key
points.
60 % 80 %
Figure 45:
Options for making the profession more attractive
Better remuneration
Better planning of the working hours in order
to improve the relationship between family,
leisure, and work
Improvement in the public image of the
occupation
On the whole, drivers should have a wider
range of career prospects and occupational
development opportunities (e.g. specializations)
Better apprenticeship
More information and advertising for the
apprenticeship
Also offering work assignments abroad
makes the job attractive
The job should be more versatile and
drivers should be more involved in the
overall work processes
(n=697) 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 %
Figure 46:
Requirements regarding work-life balance
A boring job is not an option for me
Everything has to be right for me when it comes
to work: Remuneration, career opportunities, and
sufficient free time
A job with promotion prospects and career
opportunities is extremely important to me, I
would not like to compromise on this aspect in
the medium term
I would not choose a profession with permanent
stress and a high level of risk to health
Fixed working hours that can be planned are a
"must" for me
I could not have a job that did not give me enough
time for friends, family, and hobbies
I think it is important that occupational
development opportunities also enable
experience in subsidiaries abroad
A secure job is extremely important to me, irrespec-
tive of whether the job is satisfactory to me or not
Having a job that is "satisfactory" and that I
consider to be interesting is extremely important
to me. Remuneration and free time are of
secondary importance
0% 20 % 40 % 60 %
(n=692)
77
 E E 1 Trends and Scenarios
Trends and Scenarios: The Called
The Professional Driver of the Future
Industrialized operating
areas will not be an
The following endeavors to combine the evaluation of the situation and the trends, option for the Called in
which are described in the second ZF study on the future of transport (Zukunftsstudie
the future either.
FERNFAHRER), with the identified driver types. This will then allow conclusions to be
drawn regarding the driver types of the future. A clear picture of the kinds of values The development towards greater indus-
and performance incentives that are likely to predominate among the next generation trialization in the transport sector makes
photo: Otto Miedl
of drivers should in turn enable the requirements relating to the operating profile and the image of the profession less attrac-
available jobs to be tailored accordingly. A target group-specific concept for acquiring tive from the Calleds viewpoint. He is
young drivers and lateral entrants can be put together based on these insights. unwilling to accept the consequences
of industrialization, such as sharing the
Two issues proved fundamental when it came to clarifying this question: on the one vehicle with other drivers. Industrialized
hand, the question regarding the attractiveness of the image of the profession from operating areas will not be an option for
the perspective of the various driver types. On the other, the question of what factors him in the future either. The Called is not
influence the future supply of the various driver types. Together, these two issues suited to this operating areas in light of
provide an answer to the question of what developments will influence, and to what his profile.
extent, the competitive situation faced by the companies based in Germany that
employ professional drivers in the commercial road haulage service. Since the Called is looking to work in
long operating ranges, especially in
international tramp shipping, due to his
Leitmotifs of the analysis: professional expectations, the companies
that provide him with employment are
What influences the attractiveness of the essentially competing with Eastern
image of the profession from the perspective European transport companies. A rever-
of the respective driver types? sal of the developments over the past
few years whereby German transport
What influences the future supply of companies suffered major losses of
drivers of the different types?
photo: DAF
market share would seem unlikely in
the future. The more likely scenario is
that foreign providers will continue to
gain market shares. Due to competition
particularly with Eastern European
companies, it is unlikely that the salary
level of drivers employed in Germany will
78
Driver Type 1,
The Called
increase substantially in future, and
hence make the profession more attrac-
tive. This applies in particular to stand-
ardized, and thus easily interchangeable
transport services. By contrast, specialist
segments where strong customer orien-
tation, specialist equipment, and addition-
al know-how are required could even see
driver salaries increase in the future in
the international segment and German
companies could be competitive. In
future, this may be a considerable oper-
ating area for the Called.
Technical developments on the vehicle
will also have an impact on the attractive-
ness of the profession. However, there
is still no clear-cut positive or negative
impact on the drivers motivation in this
respect. Semi-autonomous driving, for
instance, has a direct influence on driving
and restricts the drivers autonomy. Other
assistance systems that make driving
easier may, however, have a positive
impact on the attractiveness of the driver
profession in the Calleds opinion.
In the area of infrastructure, the highly
problematic parking lot situation on
highways and the associated inability to
spend breaks in a relaxing environment
will also tarnish the attractiveness of the
driver profession in future. The influence
of loading and unloading times on
79

satisfaction is just as important among
the Called. The development and adop-
tion of operating concepts whereby
loading and unloading activities are
decoupled on the one hand, and driving
activities performed on the other, thus
allowing the Called to concentrate on
driving (keyword trailer yards), would
substantially enhance attractiveness from
this point of view.
A more flexible interpretation of social
legislation, in particular the Regulation on
Driving Times and Rest Periods (EC) No.
561/2006, would make the driver profes-
sion more attractive from the Calleds
viewpoint, as they would then be able
to spend longer breaks at home at a
stretch. By way of qualification though,
it must be remembered that the maxi-
mum driving time over two weeks cannot
be exceeded and steps must be taken
to prevent employers from exploiting the
more flexible regulations at the drivers
expense.
80
The demand for drivers
of the Called type will
drop.
The Called will always exist as a driver
type and there will also always be a
demand for this driver type. However,
both the absolute number and the relative
share of the Called on the one hand, as
well as the demand for the Called on the
other will fall in future for various reasons.
One major reason is the increasing
unwillingness among young driving
personnel to structure their lives entirely
around the requirements of the long-
distance driver profession and to accept
above all the long periods away from
home. The shift in values and the discus-
sion surrounding Generation Y affect the
target group of the Called in particular.
If the Called leave the profession, it will
currently be very difficult to find suitable
photo: Karl-Heinz Augustin
E 2
Trends and Scenarios Trends and Scenarios
Driver Type 1, Driver Type 2,
The Called The Committed
replacements. It also needs to be borne The Committed
in mind that the willingness to drive in
international tramp shipping tends to
decrease as drivers get older, and thus
the driver profile also changes with age. Increasing industrialization in the transport segment may
Instead of leaving these drivers in their indeed make the profession more attractive from the Commit-
operating areas by pressurizing teds perspective since more reliable, more manageable work-
them and hence risking that they leave ing hours are crucial to them. If this is done in a way that they
the profession entirely, opportunities can appreciate, the more salient disadvantages of industrializa-
for change need to be highlighted and tion, such as sharing the vehicle or a lower sensed autonomy,
alternative operating areas increasingly may be acceptable. The Committed only fits into industrialized
offered in this respect. For instance, it can systems if the advantages of the profession, especially enjoy-
be pointed out to younger drivers early on ment of driving, continue to exist.
that they are not permanently tied to
international tramp shipping, but can also Type 2 drivers with an affinity to
switch to other areas as they trucks are flexible and groupage-
get older. capable.
The Committed wants to work mainly in national long-distance
transport and, in certain cases, in regional transport. In both
instances, these are areas that are currently less under threat
from foreign competitors among other things due to the
applicable cabotage provisions. The shortage of drivers will be
felt strongly in this segment, which will ultimately translate into
increasing salaries. If the restrictions on cabotage are lifted,
national tramp shipping in the long-distance segment in particu-
lar would initially be affected in all likelihood. Since the Commit-
ted, however, is capable of working in groupage and, second-
ly, is also willing to drive in regional transport, the expected
repercussions for him are less than in the case of the Called
if large numbers of foreign competitors enter the market in
national tramp shipping.
The Committeds demands on the profession will increase
photo: Karl-Heinz Augustin
in future, especially with regard to the ability to combine job
and family or interact with the social environment (work-life
balance). Suitable remuneration will be implicitly seen as a
prerequisite in future, rather than being front and center as
the motivation for pursuing the profession. Other aspects will
become (at least) just as important.
81

Future technical developments influence
the professions attractiveness just as
much as with the Called. The Committed
basically welcomes more flexibility in
terms of driving time and rest periods.
Since he is already working in shorter
operating ranges though, and therefore
also has more regular contact with his
social sphere than the Called, this aspect
nevertheless plays a less important role
for him overall.
Type 2 drivers with
an affinity to trucks
are flexible and
groupage-capable.
As part of the discussed shift in values,
drivers are now much less willing to
accept longer periods away from home
and working hours that cannot be
planned. In this respect, it can be as-
sumed that the Committed will become
more important in future to companies
compared in particular with the Called.
In addition to the apparent increasing
attractiveness of the driver profile among
young drivers, it must be borne in mind
that presumably as drivers get older they
become less willing to drive long dis
tances. This may be advantageous with
82
regard to the availability of drivers cate-
gorized under the Committed type.
The observed, increasing funding of the
drivers license by the employer, who to
a certain extent replaces the Federal
Armed Forces as an instructor, runs up
against the individuals reluctance (due
to the shift in values) to invest large
amounts of their own money in vocational
(further) training. In this respect, the
funding for obtaining a drivers license
by the employer may reduce the entry
barriers to the driver profession and have
a positive impact on the number of
drivers.
Overall, it can be assumed that the
absolute number of the Committed will
tend to remain constant in future or even
albeit to the detriment of the Called
increase. Thus, the proportion of the
Committed in relation to total drivers
will increase over the medium term.
photo: erikdegraaf_Fotolia
photo: Jan Bergrath
The Rationalist
The Rationalist agrees most strongly with
the statement that the driver profession
will in future be a job like any other.
Manageable, predictable working hours
constitute an important requirement for
him. In this respect, increasing industriali-
zation in the transport segment makes
the profession much more attractive to
him. He also sees the cab as an inter-
changeable workplace and has no strong
ties to a vehicle. The Rationalist therefore
fits in well in industrialized systems with
timed transportation.
The Rationalist works mainly in regional
transport and in short-distance transport.
In both cases, this involves national
transport and hence subsegments of the
transport market that currently face
minimal threats from foreign competition.
It can be assumed that salaries will also
E 3
increase in this segment due to the
associated limited pool of driving person-
nel. The repercussions of lifting the
cabotage restrictions would, however,
take some time to feed through in this
segment since the vehicle base is
extremely important in short-distance
transport. As such, the expected reper-
cussions are less than with the Called.
The Rationalists demands in terms of
the work-life balance will increase in the
future. In their view, the driver profession
will become much more family-friendly.
Against this backdrop, industrialized
systems with regular, wherever possible
daily periods at home make the profes-
sion more attractive. Future technical
developments, such as semi-autonomous
driving, may also make the profession a
more attractive proposition. The enjoy-
ment of driving is not a primary motiva-
tion for him, unlike the other driver types.
Rationalists per se are reluctant to accept
long periods away from home and un-
predictable working hours. There is no
pronounced intrinsic motivation for the
profession. That said, the Rationalist
constitutes an important target group for
many transport companies because the
Called and the Committed alone will not
be sufficient to meet future demand. In
this respect, the aim is to eliminate as
many obstacles as possible that prevent
individuals entering the profession,
Trends and Scenarios
Driver Type 3,
The Rationalist
photo: Volker Hammermeister
improve the public perception of the
profession, and help enhance the image.
The Rationalist is also not prepared to
finance acquisition of the drivers license
themselves. Employer funding of the
drivers license is therefore crucially
important if large numbers of Rationalists The Accidental
are to be attracted into the profession.
The same applies to the requisite qualifi- As a result of diverse recruitment efforts,
cations under the Professional Drivers people with different backgrounds get into
Qualification Act (BKrFQG). The Ration- contact with the driver profession. Howev-
alists in particular are very reluctant to er, this group of Accidentals is not a plan-
finance further training themselves on a nable source for companies and cannot
regular basis and even less so to under- directly be considered for the development
take training in their own free time. of new concepts to attract new staff. The
main desire of the Accidental is to have an
The Rationalist is well employment perspective. Thus, the overall
suited for industrialized economic development with alternative
groupage. employment options exerts major influ-
ence in this regard. If an Accidental,
In the apprentices view, the negative however, can cope with the working
image of the professional driver is mainly conditions in freight transport, type 3
due to the absence of regular contact with classification (see there) or even type 2
their own social sphere. It is thus extremely classification are also an option.
important to make clear to junior drivers
from this target group that long-distance
driving does not necessarily entail spend-
ing weeks away from home. However, this
is just one component in bringing about the
necessary increase in the absolute num-
ber of Rationalists. Since the motivation
for the profession is the lowest among
this driver type and competition with other
segments is the fiercest, the aim here is
to reduce entry hurdles and improve the
image.
83
 E 4
photo: Thomas Kppers
Driver Types and Competitive Situation
on the Transport Market
Does the driving pers- The Called [Type 1], as illustrated above,
typically cover long distances, mainly in
onnel development
the international segment. It is especially
influence the competitive here that German companies face com-
situation of German petition from Eastern European providers
transport companies? in particular. These competitors have far
lower driving personnel costs at present.
Even if the salaries of Eastern European
drivers were to increase in the future, it
is unlikely that the differences would be
entirely evened out over the next few
years. In other words, a driver employed
in Germany in the international segment
will in future be more expensive than an
Eastern European driver. Drivers will
also not be prepared to work for salary
that is on par with what their international
photo: Thomas Kppers
84
competitors earn. In this respect, it can
be assumed that German companies in
particular in international tramp shipping
will lose additional market share to
foreign companies and that these will
hardly use any driving personnel from
Germany. Nonetheless, it will be very
difficult to acquire junior staff for general
international long-distance transport in
Germany. The Calleds operating areas
may well shift toward the national sector
or international specialist segments.
The Committed typically work in national
long-distance transport, but also in
regional transport to a certain extent.
In these segments, German companies
Trends and Scenarios
Driver Types and
Transport Market
photo: Jan Bergrath
tend to face competition from each other and less so from
foreign providers, at least where the current cabotage arran-
gements are being followed. The Committed works both in
tramp shipping and in scheduled transport. Additional Commit-
ted will therefore be needed to meet the forecast growth in
road haulage transport. The increasing liberalization of the
transport market also changes the
Rationalists typically work in regional and short-distance
transport. Based on their profile, Rationalists are particularly requirements for professional drivers.
suited as groupage drivers and less for tramp shipping. If
national groupage becomes more important, a larger number
of Rationalists will be required for this reason alone. Further-
more, Rationalists will inevitably need to be acquired in order
to cope with the general shortage of drivers. This does not In summary, it can be said that the nonetheless difficult
need to happen solely in Germany where lateral entrants commercial situation of those companies operating in interna-
offer fairly high potential. Examples show that German trans- tional long-distance transport will be further compounded by
port companies can also successfully recruit junior staff the future developments in the driving personnel sphere.
from other European countries. With regard to national areas of activity, the key issue is
being able to offer junior staff more regular and more predic-
Developments in the area of cabotage will have a significant table operating conditions. This can be pursued primarily by
impact. If the current cabotage arrangements set out in Regu- a stronger regional focus or also by industrializing the opera-
lation (EC) No. 1072/2009 (three journeys within seven days) ting area. At the same time, the requisite driver profile thus
are repealed and cabotage is completely opened up as part of moves farther and farther away from the once determinant
transport market liberalization, cost competition is also likely King of the Road.
to intensify in Germany. National tramp shipping in the long-
distance segment in particular may well be affected. However,
regional transport will tend to have fewer opportunities to
substitute domestic common carriers with foreign providers
since companies often demand strong ties in the region and
closer customer contact. These operating conditions are
almost an ideal fit with the Committed driver type, with their
pronounced enjoyment of driving and the desire to spend
regular periods at home. The opening up of cabotage is
initially likely to have fewer repercussions on the industria-
lized, systemized operating areas than on tramp shipping in
the long-distance segment. Thus, the Rationalist may also
be less affected by this development.
85
 E 5
Recommendations for Action
The ZF study on the future of transport (ZF Zukunftsstudie FERNFAHRER) contains
a host of information that enables every company to derive their own specific
recommendations for action. The strategic positioning of the individual company or
companies of a certain type ultimately depends on a number of individual factors.
In addition, the results and recommenda-
tions for action of the ZF study on the
future of transport, which at the same time
should also be regarded as a call to action,
address the two following target groups:
1. The industry as the total of German
transport companies and associated
stakeholders, that must have a genuine
interest in recruiting junior staff in the
driving personnel segment. If they do not
manage to attract more people into the
driver profession in future, it will no longer
be possible to meet driver demand in
Germany.
2. Government whose task is to influ-
ence the recruitment of driving personnel
by putting in place the right framework
conditions in road haulage and that can
make the image of truck driver more
attractive as a profession through certain
framework conditions.
86
photo: Thomas Rosenberger
In light of demographic changes and
the associated requirements relating to
retaining staff within the industry and
within individual companies, as well as
requirements for recruiting junior staff,
the study identified important pointers on
how to shape the image of the driver
occupation in the future. The industry
must respond appropriately to the needs
of current and future personnel if it is to
ensure a constant supply of sufficient
personnel. The driver survey reveals
positive factors, such as, first of all, the
fairly high level of job satisfaction (regard-
less of all the existing problems) that still
exists and no excessive wish to change
the operating area.
Trends and Scenarios
Recommendations for Action
The results of the apprentice survey also
point into the same direction. The attrac-
tiveness of the profession for apprentices
is the result of the enjoyment of driving
and the expectation of pursuing an inter-
esting, varied profession on the whole in
which the desire for autonomy can be
realized. The same applies to the active
drivers as well. One particular challenge
will be to meet the upcoming generations
demand for a suitable work-life balance.
In addition, the salary framework must be
coherent and equate to the notion of
performance-related remuneration. This
is where Generation Y appears with its
self-confident, demanding attitude. Actual-
ly, this means that higher salaries are
unavoidable. Furthermore, there is the
junior drivers demand for career opportu-
nities, development options, and personal
leeway, that may also in turn prompt
drivers to leave the profession. These
options must be opened up to the upcom-
ing generation and made transparent.
The very high rates of apprenticeship
contract termination warrant special
attention. Underlying causes relate primar-
ily to personal conflicts within the appren-
ticeship company as well as between
apprentices and instructors, not to men-
tion disappointment regarding the quality
of the apprenticeship. In light of the dwin-
dling potential number of apprentices for
demographic reasons alone, the appren-
ticeship structure is therefore an important
starting point for making the profession
more attractive. If the aim is to attract and,
above all, retain more apprentices, the
image of the industry and the image of
the profession must be improved further,
among other things by means of more
intensive public relations. It needs to be
stressed even more strongly that profes-
sional drivers work in a future-proof growth
industry in which job security is a given.
The way to attract new professional
drivers and hence alleviate the problem
of the shortage of drivers must include
the following key elements based on
the results of the second ZF study on
the future of transport (Zukunftsstudie
FERNFAHRER):
Increased apprenticeship rate, for
instance by promoting combined
apprenticeship programs involving
several companies
Quality management in the apprentice-
ship to counteract the current high
levels of disillusionment during the
apprenticeship and the high rates of
contract termination
Image development to emphasize the
attractiveness of the apprenticeship
profession; a clearer focus is required
on the motives for choosing the profes-
sion among the driver types that will be
in greater demand in future
Development of alternative working-
time and deployment models, taking
greater account of the work-life bal-
ance; the reduction of periods away
from home and the chance to change
the operating area play a key role
Performance-related, differentiated
remuneration of drivers, which also
suitably rewards peak workloads
Flexibilization of driving times and rest
periods for the benefit of drivers, i.e. in
particular without increasing total
driving times
photo: industrieblick_Fotolia
Examination of a pilot study for accom-
panied driving for apprentices that have
not yet turned 18
87
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89
 Interview Partners
line Andreas Marquardt
The study on
Joachim Altmann
Proxy, Gebr. Schrder GmbH & Co. KG President, BAG
d the current Peter Baumann Helmut Oberreitmeier
te, you can fin
On the websi ss to the Managing director, 24plus Systemverkehre Managing director, GV Management
nload, get acce
study for dow bl og w ith inter- GmbH & Co. KG GmbH (GVtrucknet)
on and a
previous editi and photos
utions, films, Jan Bergrath Markus Olligschlger
esting contrib Journalist Head of national road haulage, DSLV
on the topic. Deutscher Speditions- und Logistikver-
Marten Bosselmann
ftsstudie.de band e.V.
www.zf-zukun Managing director, Bundesverband Paket
& Expresslogistik e.V. (BIEK) Jochen Quick
Jochen Eschborn President, Bundesverband Wirtschaft,
Board of Management, ELVIS AG Verkehr und Logistik (BWVL) e.V.
Thomas Fabian Matthias Rathmann
Head of the department for commercial Chief editor, trans aktuell
vehicles, trailers, superstructures, buses, Bernd Reining
VDA e.V. Fleet manager, Duvenbeck Unterneh-
Joachim Fehrenktter mensgruppe I Duvenbeck Consulting
Managing partner, Fehrenktter Transport GmbH & Co. KG
und Logistik GmbH Klaus Peter Rskes
Wolfram Fritz Chairman of the Board of Management,
Managing director, Fritz GmbH & Co. KG BG Verkehr
Marcel Gigengack Siegfried Rothe
Education and vocational training/fleet Manager Condition Enhancement, Daimler
support/occupational health and safety/risk AG
management for vehicle fleets, Duvenbeck Prof. Dr. Karlheinz Schmidt
Unternehmensgruppe I Duvenbeck Managing member of the Executive
Consulting GmbH & Co. KG Committee, BGL e. V.
Carsten Granz Ingo Schulze
Quality manager Europe, IDS Logistik Professional driver
GmbH Volker Seitz
Ren Groe-Vehne Head of Communications, Kgel Trailer
Managing director, GV Management GmbH & Co. KG
GmbH (GVtrucknet) Malte Stamer
Ulrich Hfele Project manager, international educational
Monitoring and analysis of the job market, programs, DEKRA Akademie GmbH
Federal Employment Agency, regional
Imprint
Andreas Techel
directorate Baden-Wrttemberg Chief editor, FERNFAHRER
Peter Heim ZF Friedrichshafen AG
Adalbert Wandt Graf-von-Soden-Platz 1
Head of Logistics, ZF Group/Senior President, BGL e.V.
Manager Logistics ZF Group, 88046 Friedrichshafen
Franz-Xaver Winklhofer
ZF Friedrichshafen AG
Deputy federal chairman and press Publisher
Mario Klepp spokesman, Kraftfahrergewerkschaft EuroTransportMedia
Head of the German Federal Working (KFG) [drivers union] in Christlicher Verlags- und Veranstaltungs-GmbH
Group Forwarding, Logistics, and Courier, Gewerkschaftsbund (CGB) [Christian Handwerkstrae 15
Express, Parcel Services, ver.di Trade Union Federation of Germany] 70565 Stuttgart
Christian Labrot
Chief executive, Bundesverband Authors
Wirtschaft, Verkehr und Logistik Institut fr Nachhaltigkeit
(BWVL) e.V. in Verkehr und Logistik
Peter Lttjohann Hochschule Heilbronn
Head of Dept. G 22 (Freight haulage Max-Planck-Strae 39
and logistics), BMVI [Federal Ministry of 74081 Heilbronn
Transport and Digital Infrastructure]
Prof. Dr. Dirk Lohre,
Prof. Dr. Tobias Bernecker,
Prof. Dr. Wilfried Stock

Universitt Duisburg-Essen:
Prof. Dr. Karl Dsseldorff

Editorial office/Production/Graphics
ETMservices, cover photo: Jan Bergrath

First publication
September 3, 2014

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