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Weighted average
cost of capital
(WACC)
Dollar Return
rate of return =
Amount invested
Amount received - Amount invested
=
Amount invested
^
r = expected rate of return.
n
r = Pi ri .
i =1
Probability Distribution &
Expected Rate of Return
Probability distribution
Continuous Probability Distribution
Stand Alone Risk: Measurements
Standard Deviation
n
= i =1
(ri - r) 2 Pi
Standard Deviation
Historical Data to Measure
Standard Deviation
Standard Deviation
( r t - r Avg ) 2
Estimated = S = t =1
n 1
Historical Data to Measure
Standard Deviation
Coefficient of Variation (CV)
CV = ^
r
^ = CVA > CVB.
r
Risk & Return
in Portfolio Context
Return
^
rp is a weighted average:
n
rp = wiri.
^ ^
i=1
Risk
Correlation Coefficient to measure the tendency
of two variables moving together
Portfolio Return
Stock Portfolio weight Expected Return
Microsoft 0,25 12,0%
General Electric 0,25 11,5%
Pfizer 0,25 10,0%
Coca-Cola 0,25 9,5%
p
2
= w1 1 + w2 2 + 2( w1 w2 1 2 12 )
2 2 2 2
Covariance
Cov12 = 12 = 1 2 12
Correlation Coeficient = 12
Standard Deviation
p = p
2
Portfolio Risk:
Standard Deviation of 2-Asset-Portfolio
Portfolio WM
Year Stock W returns Stock M returns (Equally weighted avg.)
2000 40% -10% 15%
2001 -10% 40% 15%
2002 35% -5% 15%
2003 -5% 35% 15%
2004 15% 15% 15%
Average return 15% 15% 15%
Standard deviation 25.00% 25.00% 0.00%
Correlation Coefficient -1.00
Returns Distribution for Two Perfectly
Negatively Correlated Stocks ( = -1.0) and
for Portfolio WM
15 . 15 . 15 . . . . .
0 0 0
. .
-10
. -10
. -10
Portfolio Risk:
Perfectly Positive Correlation
15 15 15
0 0 0
25
Effects of Portfolio Size on
Portfolio Risk
Market risk is that part of a securitys
stand-alone risk that cannot be eliminated
by diversification, and is measured by
beta.
Firm-specific risk is that part of a securitys
stand-alone risk that can be eliminated by
proper diversification.
Capital Asset Pricing Model &
The Concept of Beta
Market risk, which is relevant for stocks held in well-diversified
portfolios, is defined as the contribution of a security to the overall
riskiness of the portfolio. It is measured by a stocks beta coefficient.
Beta measures a stocks market risk. It shows a stocks volatility
relative to the market.
Beta shows how risky a stock is if the stock is held in a well-diversified
portfolio.
Beta can be calculated by running a regression of past returns on Stock
i versus returns on the market. The slope of the regression line is
defined as the beta coefficient.
If beta > 1.0, stock is riskier than the market.
If beta < 1.0, stock less risky than the market.
i
bi =
i,M
M
Using a Regression to
Estimate Beta
Run a regression with returns on the stock in
question plotted on the Y axis and returns on
the market portfolio plotted on the X axis.
The slope of the regression line, which
measures relative volatility, is defined as the
stocks beta coefficient, or b.
29
Beta - Illustration
Calculating Beta in Practice
Many analysts use the S&P 500 to find the
market return.
Analysts typically use four or five years of
monthly returns to establish the regression
line.
Some analysts use 52 weeks of weekly
returns.
31
Beta - Calculation
CALCULATING THE BETA COEFFICIENT FOR AN ACTUAL COMPANY
Now we show how to calculate beta for an actual company, General Electric.
Average return
(annual) -8,8% -3,4%
Standard deviation
(annual) 17,6% 29,2%
Correlation between GE and the market. 66,0%
Beta (using the SLOPE function) 1,09
How is beta interpreted?
If b = 1.0, stock has average risk.
If b > 1.0, stock is riskier than average.
If b < 1.0, stock is less risky than average.
Most stocks have betas in the range of 0.5 to
1.5.
33
Security Market Line (SML)
Relationship between required rate of return and risk
ri = rRF + RPMbi .