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Ha Dao, Chairman
ASQ Automotive Division
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Housekeeping Items
About ASQ Automotive Division
Webinar Series
Polls
How to Calculate the Risk of a
Decision: Shainin B vs C
Questions & Answers
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Session will last about 75 minutes
Slides posted at www.asq-auto.org
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Q&A in last 10 minutes
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ASQ Automotive Division 8 Webinar Series
ASQ Auto Webinars Series 2010-2011
Reliability Maturity
Do you know your RMI (Reliability
Maturity Index)?
March 24, 2011
7:00 pm 8:15 pm EST
Su Glesner, Sr. Reliability Engineer
AM General
ASQ Automotive Division 10 Webinar Series
Call for Speakers & Volunteers
Richard Shainin
Executive Vice President
Shainin
February 15, 2011
Agenda
1. Change.
2. Impact of ineffective changes.
3. Minimizing ineffective changes.
4. B vs. C Test.
5. Randomization.
6. Additional examples.
15
Global Electronics Company
One Quarter of Data, > 2000 changes approved
900
800
Number of Changes
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Align to Current Process Product Change Quality Cost Savings
Process Improvement Request Improvement
Change Type
Manufacturing changes for released products across 6 manufacturing sites.
16
Effectiveness?
17
Compressor Broken Reed Case
Automotive HVAC
18
Background Information
Product Function
New
Reed
Failure
Initiation
Failed
Reed
19
The X Y Approach
20
Waste from Ineffective Changes
21
Marketing cost of ineffective changes
22
Problem Solving
Contrast based
convergent approach
Process/Product Control
Experience Understandin
Technical
based g the physics
problem
approach
Design Change
Directional correct
design change
Brainstorming based
approach
23
Contrast Based Convergent Approach
Decrease Increase
Compressor Compressor
Energy Strength
P M
25
B vs C 6 Pack
26
B better than C
27
B is not better than C
28
B vs C
29
B Not Better Than C
With 2 samples, 1B and 1C, there are only 2 possible rank order outcomes.
Possible
Rank
Outcomes
1 2
1 B C
2 C B
With 3 samples, 1B and 2Cs, there are only 3 possible rank order
outcomes.
Ran
Possible Outcomes
k
1 2 3
1 B C C
2 C B C
3 C C B
With 4 samples, 2Bs and 2Cs, there are only 6 possible rank order
outcomes.
Rank Possible Outcomes
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 B B B C C C
2 B C C B B C
3 C B C B C B
4 C C B C B B
With 5 samples, 2Bs and 3Cs, there are only 10 possible rank order
outcomes.
Rank Possible Outcomes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
1 B B B B C C C C C C
2 B C C C B B B C C C
3 C B C C B C C B B C
4 C C B C C B C B C B
5 C C C B C C B C B B
There is a 10% chance that we will be fooled into believing B is better.
33
B Not Better Than C
With 6 samples, 3Bs and 3Cs, there are only 20 possible rank order outcomes.
Ran
Possible Outcomes
k
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
1 B B B B B B B B B B C C C C C C C C C C
2 B B B B C C C C C C B B B B B B C C C C
3 B C C C B B B C C C B B B W W W B B B C
4 C B C C B C C B B C B C C B B C B B C B
5 C C B C C B C B C B C B C B C B B C B B
6 C C C B C C B C B B C C B C B B C B B B
Number of
Consequences of a
Randomized B better than C, not
Wrong Decision
Samples just different.
Desired B C
Confidence ~ Risk Samples Samples
0.999 0.001 3 16
B and C sample
Super Critical 4 10
sizes are
5 8
interchangeable.
6 6
0.99 0.01 2 13
Critical 3 7
4 5 No overlap of
5 4 ranks is permitted
0.95 0.05 1 19
for this test.
Important 2 5
3 3
0.90 0.10 1 9
Moderate 2 3
35
B vs C Table for a One Tailed Test
Number of
Consequences of a
Randomized B better than C, not
Wrong Decision
Samples just different.
Desired B C
Confidence ~ Risk Samples Samples
0.999 0.001 3 16
B and C sample
Super Critical 4 10
sizes are
5 8
interchangeable.
6 6
0.99 0.01 2 13
Critical 3 7
4 5 No overlap of
5 4 ranks is permitted
0.95 0.05 1 19
for this test.
Important 2 5
3 3
0.90 0.10 1 9 6 Pack Test
Moderate 2 3
36
Our Parts or Systems Vary
37
Spurious Associations
How do variables change over time?
DX
Time
1. Cycle
38
Spurious Associations
How do variables change over time?
DX
Time
1. Cycle
2. Trend
39
Spurious Associations
How do variables change over time?
DX
Time
1. Cycle
2. Trend
3. Shift
40
Spurious Associations
Testing in phase with process variation?
WOW C C C
DX
BOB B B B
Time
41
Spurious Associations
Testing in phase with process variation?
C C C
WOW
DX
BOB B B B
Time
42
Randomization
Breaking Phase With Every Other X
WOW
C C C
DX
BOB B B B
Time
43
Randomization
Breaking Phase With Every Other X: The Result
WOW C C
B
DY
BOB B C B
Time
44
Randomization
Breaking Phase With Every Other X
C C C
DX
B B B
Time
45
Randomization
Breaking Phase With Every Other X
C C C
DX
B B B
Time
C B B B B B B B B B C C C C C C C C C B
C B B B C C C C C C B B B B B B C C C B
C C C C B B B C C C B B B C C C B B B B
B B C C B C C B B C B C C B B C B B C C
B C B C C B C B C B C B C B C B B C B C
B C C B C C B C B B C C B C B B C B B C
47
Planning Randomization
Ten Useful Random Patterns
B B B B B C C C C C
B B C C C B B B C C
C C B B C B C C B B
B C B C B C B C B C
C B C C C B B B C B
C C C B B C C B B B
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
48
Broken Reed B vs C Verifies Solution
B = Reduce suction port diameter.
C = Current suction port diameter.
Response = Cycles to failure.
Allowed risk = 5%
Required End Count = 6
Reducing the suction diameter will improve reed. There was a 5% risk
that these test results happened by chance.
49
Tolerance Parallelogram
50
Transmission Failures
51
Snap Ring Picture
52
Failed B vs C
B vs C for Group Comparison Red X Candidates
B = Spring Force = 70 lbs., Free ID = 2.25, Free End Gap = 2.1 mm
C = Spring Force = 40 lbs., Free ID = 2.27, Free End Gap = 4.6 mm
Response = Line pressure to fail the snap ring at 4000 RPM in reverse.
Allowed Risk = 5%
Required End Count = 6
54
B vs C to Verify Inhibitor as Red X
B = WOW Time part with sealer (wax) removed.
C = WOW Time part with heavy rust inhibitor (wax) coating.
Response = Line pressure to fail the snap ring at 4000 RPM in reverse.
Allowed risk = 5%
Required End Count = 6
56
B vs C Table for a One Tailed Test
Number of
Consequences of a
Randomized B better than C, not
Wrong Decision
Samples just different.
Desired B C
Confidence ~ Risk Samples Samples
0.999 0.001 3 16
B and C sample
Super Critical 4 10
sizes are
5 8
interchangeable.
6 6
0.99 0.01 2 13
Critical 3 7
4 5 No overlap of
5 4 ranks is permitted
0.95 0.05 1 19
for this test.
Important 2 5
3 3
0.90 0.10 1 9 Critical
Moderate 2 3 consequences
57
Elements of a Well Designed B vs C Test
The following elements should be documented:
Data Presentation: Two tables (usually side by side) where the first
table shows the result in run order and the second table shows the
result in rank order with the resulting end count at the bottom of the
second table.
Conclusion: Did you meet the required end count? If so, what can
you conclude?
58
Bibliography
Title: How To Calculate The Risk Of A Decision
59
Questions & Answers
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