December 1, 2010 JAPAN | ASIA FLOW REPORT

March 21,
2012

Weekly Flow Report

onr
Flow Summary.........2
Mutual Funds, ETFs
Short Interest, Futures, Commitments of Traders, Hedge Funds

Special Focus: Market Timing With Leveraged Equity ETFs .... 4

Leveraged Short U.S. Equity ETF Flows Yield Signal that Could Generate
Returns of up to 15.4%
Leveraged Long U.S. Equity ETF Flows Yield Signal that Could Generate
Returns of up to 17.5%
S&P 500 Drops 15.4% in Month Following Outflows from Leveraged Short
U.S. Equity ETFs
S&P 500 Rises 17.7% in Two Weeks Following Outflows from Leveraged
Long U.S. Equity ETFs

Mutual Fund and ETF Flows........8

Hedge Fund Flows........10

Short Interest Flows....................11

Demand Index...............12

Annexes and Datasets.14

Model Portfolios............................................16

Charles Biderman, TrimTabs

CEO Leon.Mirochnik@TrimTabs.com
Investment Research, Inc. | 1
Leon Mirochnik, CFA +1 (646) 512-5616
Tom Mangan, Editor
March 21, 2012 Flow Summary | Weekly Flow Report

TTDI 200% Long on U.S. Equities (Demand Index at 88.4).

Shorting Leveraged Long ETFs Earns 17.5% Annually Since 2006.
The TrimTabs Demand Index (TTDI) closed at 88.4 on March 20 north of the neutrality line of 50. Note that the index
signals a 200% long position in our model portfolio for readings above 75. The TTDI uses 21 flow and sentiment variables
to time U.S. equities; seven of the variables are bearish while 11 support the notion that stock prices can work higher (three
are neutral). Short interest, meanwhile, remains at a record low and has not budged in the past four weeks.

This weeks Special Focus: Using TrimTabs proprietary equity ETF Flow data, an investor could have reaped up to 15.4%
by timing Leveraged Short U.S. equity ETF flows and up to 17.5% by timing Leveraged Long U.S. equity ETF flows since
2006. Find out how we mined the TrimTabs fund flow database to develop a timing signal that links leveraged U.S. equity
ETF flows to returns on the S&P 500.

U.S. Equity ETFs Send Sell Signal, while Leveraged ETFs Send Buy Signal. Emerging Markets Are Being Flooded.

U.S. equity ETF investors are bullish, purchasing $5.3 billion in the week ending March 21. This should concern the
bulls, as our research shows that equity ETF flows are excellent contrarian indicators. Out of all the variables we track,
long ETF flows provide the most statistically significant predictability patterns for market direction.
The leveraged ETF crowd is sending bullish signals. Leveraged-long U.S. equity ETFs redeemed 1.8% of assets in the
past week, while leveraged short U.S. equity ETFs issued 0.88% in the past week. Outflows from leveraged-long funds
and inflows into leveraged short funds are bullish in our opinion. See this weeks Special Focus for more on how
leveraged ETF flows can be excellent contrarian indicators.
ETF investors are adding corporate bonds and intermediate-term U.S. Treasury bonds. U.S. Corporate bond ETFs added
$573 million (0.51% of assets) in the past week while U.S. Intermediate Government bond ETFs added $284 million
(8.9% of assets). Long-term government bonds saw an outflow of $732 million in the past week, while short-term
government bonds saw an outflow of $122 million.
Currency ETFs are finally adding assets in the short term. They gained $43 million (0.81% of assets) in the past week
while losing $406 million (7.2% of assets) over the past month.
Investors continue to flood into Emerging Markets. Emerging Market bond ETFs pulled in $519 million (6.6% of assets)
in the past month while Emerging Market equity ETFs pulled in $976 million (1.5% of assets) in the same time. This
compares to an estimated bond ETF inflow of $1.2 billion (17.1% of assets) and equity ETF inflow of $10.2 billion (16.0%
of assets) over the past three months.

Short Interest Continues to Tread Water (Unchanged from Two Weeks Ago).
NYSE short interest remained at almost the same position as it was two weeks ago, closing again at 12.5 billion shares.
The previous reading on February 15 was also relatively unchanged from the January 31 reading, which had fallen 6.7% to
12.5 billion shares from 13.4 billion shares on January 13, the lowest level on record. Historical data shows that short
interest is a solid contrarian indicator (decreases are typically bad for equities).

Spec Crowd Increasingly Bullish on Oil. Long-Short Ratio Up Over 60% Since October 2011.

Speculative traders have grown increasingly bullish on black gold since October 2011. The long-short spec ratio on
crude oil contracts has increased over 60% to a reading of 2.47-to-1 on March 13 from 1.52-to-1 on October 4, 2011.
Although the ratio has fallen by more than 12% in the past two weeks, the March 13 reading is in the top 5% of all
recorded positions going back to January 2000.

TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. | 2

March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

3.5
Spec Crude Oil Contracts Long-Short Ratio

2.5

+62
1.5

1
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12

Spec Crowd Less Bullish on Metals, Significantly Less Bearish on Euro.

Speculative traders have grown less bullish on gold over the past week as they have decreased their net long position on
gold futures to 5.9-to-1 on March 13 from 6.9-to-1 the week before. The long-short ratio has fallen 25% since February
28 but still stands above the January 3 reading of 4.9-to-1. The March 13 position is in the top 30% of all recorded
positions, but is in the bottom 20% since September of 2008, when gold started its strong ascent. Note that gold futures
prices have fallen more than 4% since the start of March.
The spec crowd is bearish on the long end of the curve but bullish on the short end. The net short-to-long ratio on the 10-
year note stood at 1.32-to-1 last week, up from 1.07-to-1 the previous week, and speculative traders are net long on two-
year note futures to the tune of 1.07-to-1, down significantly from last weeks reading of 1.45-to-1. Note that at its last
meeting, the Fed was more upbeat about the health of the U.S. economy, causing the yield on 10-year Treasuries to rise to
2.3%.
Spec traders have been net bearish on the euro since late August of 2011, with short bets peaking on January 17 at a short-
to-long ratio at 6.6-to-1. The net short position has fallen over 47.5% since then and now stands at 3.5-to-1.
Spec traders have ramped up their long positions on technology companies. They are net long on Nasdaq futures to the
tune of 4.6-to-1 as of March 13, up from the previous weeks reading of 3.9-to-1. This reading is in the top 10% of all
recorded positions going back to June 2006 and is the highest recorded position since 2010.

Hedge Funds Pull in An Estimated $1.2 Billion in February. Assets at Lowest Level since August 2010.
Based on preliminary hedge fund data for February, we estimate that hedge fund industry assets stand at $1.7 trillion, the
lowest level since August 2010. The Barclay Hedge Fund Index is up slightly above zero and clocked a return of 0.1%.
Fund of hedge funds also saw a modest inflow of $327 million in February after seeing five consecutive months of
outflows through January 2012.

TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. | 3

March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Special Focus: Market Timing with Leveraged Equity ETFs

This week we revisit another component of the TrimTabs Demand Index (TTDI) Short Equity ETF flows and explore
the relationships between leveraged short and long ETF flows and subsequent performance of the S&P 500.

After dissecting more than six years of TrimTabs proprietary daily leveraged ETF flow data, we found the following market-
timing signals emerged from the flows of Leveraged Short and Leveraged Long ETFs:

Leveraged Short equity ETF inflows could signal a way to earn a 13.1% average annualized return on a long S&P
500 investment.
Leveraged Short equity ETF outflows could signal a way to earn a 15.4% average annualized return on a short S&P
500 investment.
Leveraged Long equity ETF outflows could signal a way to earn a 17.5% average annualized return on a long S&P
500 investment.
Leveraged Long equity ETFs inflows could signal a way to earn a 7.0% average annualized return on a short S&P
500 investment.

U.S. Exchanges Boast 253 Leveraged ETFs with Assets of $32.9 Billion. Leveraged U.S. Equity ETFs Destroy $5.9
Billion in Wealth Since Inception.

Leveraged ETFs have gained wide prominence and popularity over the past several years worldwide. The 253 leveraged
ETFs listed on U.S. exchanges boast combined assets of $33.0 billion. The first Leveraged Short ETFs were introduced in
June 2006; today Leveraged Short ETF assets total $18.9 billion, nearly 27% more than the $14.9 billion in Leveraged Long
ETFs.

This report focuses solely on the 131 leveraged U.S. ETFs that offer exposure to U.S. equities (these account for 64% of all
leveraged ETF assets). The 74 Leveraged Short U.S. equity ETFs have assets of $10.3 billion, while the 57 Leveraged Long
U.S. equity ETFs have assets of $10.8 billion.

Assets of Leveraged ETFs

$ Millions 3X Short 2X Short 1X Short 2X Long 3X Long Grand Total
Bonds $448 $3,836 $1,028 $40 $135 $5,486
Commodities $20 $767 $78 $2,208 $78 $3,151
Currency $0 $1,292 $92 $15 $10 $1,408
Global $156 $487 $358 $280 $565 $1,847
U.S. Equity $2,874 $3,870 $3,588 $6,339 $4,416 $21,086
Grand Total $3,498 $10,252 $5,144 $8,882 $5,203 $32,979

Count of Leveraged ETFs

(Count) 3X Short 2X Short 1X Short 2X Long 3X Long Grand Total
Bonds 4 6 12 4 6 32
Commodities 5 13 7 12 5 42
Currency 3 1 3 1 8
Global 3 13 5 14 5 40
U.S. Equity 22 30 22 38 19 131
Grand Total 34 65 47 71 36 253

TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. | 4

March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Leveraged Short Equity ETF Study: S&P 500 Plummets an Average Annualized 15.4% in Month Following Outflows
from Leveraged Short U.S. Equity ETFs.

To construct a Leveraged Short equity ETF timing tool, we sought to determine which flow time period measured over the
course of weeks provides the best returns on S&P 500 investments in the ensuing weeks. In our study, we:

Examined data through 2006, the inception year of leveraged ETFs.

Used flows as a percentage of assets to adjust for increases in our sample over time.
Examined negative ETF flows over one to eight weeks of daily rolling periods.
Measured subsequent S&P 500 returns for each weekly flow period.
Repeated this process for positive ETF flows over one to eight weeks of daily rolling periods, then measured their
subsequent S&P 500 returns.
Calculated the average annualized return for each rolling period.
Created two 8x8 matrix heat charts that give us a snapshot of the strongest-performing time periods.
Used five to account for the number of trading days in a week; a year is 250 days.

The key insights emerge when we study the S&P 500 returns that ensue after weeks of negative flows and positive flows.
Note that outflows from Leveraged Short equity ETFs mean investors are betting the market will rise, while inflows represent
bets that the markets will fall.

As the Returns After Negative Flows heat chart below illustrates, the strongest annualized returns (1.3%) emerge when
investing for eight weeks after seven weeks of negative flows. The weakest returns (-25.8%) come after using seven weeks
of negative flows to invest for one subsequent week. The most interesting pattern to emerge is that only eight out of 64
matrix squares showed positive annualized returns over all daily rolling periods, while the rest are negative after a negative
flow period. This demonstrates that the bullish bets represented by negative flows from Leveraged Short equity ETFs are
excellent in predicting market downturns but not market upswings.

Returns After Negative Flows 1 Week Return 2 Week Return 3 Week Return 4 Week Return 5 Week Return 6 Week Return 7 Week Return 8 Week Return
1 Week Fl ows -11.92% -12.92% -10.54% -9.05% -6.42% -5.10% -4.79% -2.91%
2 Week Fl ows -10.30% -13.25% -10.86% -7.01% -6.37% -5.21% -3.93% -1.60%
3 Week Fl ows -7.37% -14.24% -12.59% -9.49% -6.76% -5.06% -2.65% 0.21%
4 Week Fl ows -19.94% -21.54% -18.57% -15.42% -10.98% -6.77% -2.49% -0.14%
5 Week Fl ows -21.87% -21.23% -17.67% -12.60% -9.22% -4.95% -1.14% 0.65%
6 Week Fl ows -21.96% -22.07% -15.93% -11.27% -7.73% -2.42% 0.07% 0.21%
7 Week Fl ows -25.81% -19.27% -13.66% -8.04% -3.17% 0.95% 1.18% 1.32%
8 Week Fl ows -23.28% -16.80% -12.14% -5.43% -1.42% 0.67% -0.48% -0.25%

The Returns After Positive Flows heat chart below illustrates the phenomenon in reverse. The weakest annualized returns
(2.39%) happened when investing for eight weeks after the rolling seven-week flow period. The strongest pattern of returns
(16.03%) came after using seven weeks of positive flows to invest for the subsequent one week. The most interesting
insight from the pattern below is that all average annualized returns over all daily rolling periods are positive after a positive
flow period. This demonstrates that retail investors buy into Leveraged Short ETFs at the top and lose out on the chance to
exploit subsequent uptrends in these funds when the markets fall.

TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. | 5

March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Returns After Positive Flows 1 Week Return 2 Week Return 3 Week Return 4 Week Return 5 Week Return 6 Week Return 7 Week Return 8 Week Return
1 Week Fl ows 13.09% 12.81% 11.14% 10.01% 8.32% 7.37% 7.06% 5.89%
2 Week Fl ows 10.44% 11.34% 9.92% 7.82% 7.30% 6.63% 5.87% 4.65%
3 Week Fl ows 8.58% 11.37% 10.46% 8.70% 7.24% 6.31% 5.04% 3.62%
4 Week Fl ows 14.44% 14.74% 12.97% 11.15% 8.80% 6.71% 4.66% 3.53%
5 Week Fl ows 15.44% 14.25% 12.23% 9.48% 7.72% 5.67% 3.89% 3.01%
6 Week Fl ows 14.63% 14.02% 10.75% 8.36% 6.63% 4.29% 3.13% 2.99%
7 Week Fl ows 16.03% 11.89% 9.13% 6.52% 4.43% 2.74% 2.54% 2.39%
8 Week Fl ows 13.89% 10.13% 7.98% 5.13% 3.49% 2.67% 2.95% 2.76%

Although the positive and negative flow patterns above provide an excellent analysis of a long set of daily data, they are of
limited use in creating a model portfolio that generates practical market-timing signals. To do that, we used only flow and
return periods of matching lengths. For example, we used a two-week trailing flow period to invest in the subsequent two
weeks, and then used the next trailing two-week period to invest in the ensuing two weeks. Going long on the S&P 500 after
inflows to Leveraged Short U.S. equity ETFs and going short after outflows would lead to sizable results for any investor.

Leveraged Short U.S. Equity Model Returns

15% Returns After Negative Flows Returns After Positive Flows

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20%
1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week

Leverage Long Equity ETF Study: S&P 500 Soars an Average Annualized 17.7% in Two Weeks Following Outflows
from Leveraged Long U.S. Equity ETFs.

We now turn to a variable that is not in the TrimTabs Demand Index Leveraged Long U.S. equity ETF flows. We used the
same methodology for Leveraged Long U.S. equity ETFs as we did for Leveraged Short U.S. equity ETFs. Note that
Leveraged Long equity ETFs inflows mean investors are betting the market will rise, while outflows represent bets that the
market will fall.

The most interesting insight from the pattern below is that all average annualized returns over all daily rolling periods are
positive after a negative flow period. This demonstrates that retail investors sell at the bottom of Leveraged Long ETF
trends and lose out on the chance to exploit subsequent uptrends in markets.

TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. | 6

March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Returns After Negative Flows 1 Week Return 2 Week Return 3 Week Return 4 Week Return 5 Week Return 6 Week Return 7 Week Return 8 Week Return
1 Week Fl ows 7.21% 9.18% 10.91% 9.66% 9.04% 8.82% 10.10% 9.76%
2 Week Fl ows 12.93% 17.75% 13.43% 10.67% 9.81% 10.51% 10.81% 10.39%
3 Week Fl ows 14.16% 9.87% 6.25% 6.12% 7.49% 8.58% 8.42% 8.37%
4 Week Fl ows 12.34% 7.07% 5.37% 7.01% 9.23% 9.92% 9.94% 9.63%
5 Week Fl ows 1.39% 2.86% 5.85% 6.91% 7.74% 8.02% 8.66% 9.49%
6 Week Fl ows 1.37% 6.26% 6.96% 7.21% 8.02% 8.74% 10.33% 10.12%
7 Week Fl ows 13.76% 14.90% 13.44% 12.14% 13.22% 14.25% 15.57% 14.68%
8 Week Fl ows 18.40% 16.92% 16.52% 16.39% 18.15% 19.14% 18.73% 17.51%

Although the returns after inflows (below) are not as one-sided, they are still pretty convincing. Only 13 out of the 64
matrix periods show a positive return after an inflow into Leveraged Long U.S. equity ETFs. This demonstrates that retail
investors buy Leveraged Long ETFs at the top and lose money when the market falls.

Returns After Positive Flows 1 Week Return 2 Week Return 3 Week Return 4 Week Return 5 Week Return 6 Week Return 7 Week Return 8 Week Return
1 Week Fl ows 1.39% -1.34% -2.80% -2.10% -2.00% -1.85% -2.82% -2.60%
2 Week Fl ows -1.93% -5.53% -3.25% -1.78% -1.45% -1.96% -2.32% -2.05%
3 Week Fl ows -3.10% -1.32% 0.90% 0.81% -0.28% -1.12% -1.19% -1.16%
4 Week Fl ows -1.59% 0.66% 1.54% 0.42% -1.08% -1.56% -1.75% -1.57%
5 Week Fl ows 5.06% 3.18% 1.16% 0.29% -0.39% -0.70% -1.23% -1.83%
6 Week Fl ows 4.70% 0.82% 0.22% -0.16% -0.83% -1.38% -2.44% -2.39%
7 Week Fl ows -3.16% -4.61% -3.94% -3.41% -4.18% -4.87% -5.68% -5.25%
8 Week Fl ows -6.19% -6.11% -6.03% -6.13% -7.22% -7.77% -7.63% -7.06%

Going long on the S&P500 after outflows from Leveraged Long U.S. equity ETFs and going short after inflows could lead to
sizable results for any investor.
Leveraged Long U.S. Equity Model Returns
20% Returns After Negative Flows Returns After Positive Flows

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%
1 week 2 week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 week 7 week 8 week

TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. | 7

March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Mutual Fund and ETF Flows

All data are as of Tuesday, March 20.
.

U.S. Equities Int. Equities Bonds Hybrid Commodities

MF Flow ETF Flow MF Flow ETF Flow MF Flow ETF Flow MF Flow ETF Flow
($ Billion) ($ Billion) ($ Billion) ($ Billion) ($ Billion) ($ Billion) ($ Billion) ($ Billion)
2006 11.0 29.8 148.5 24.5 60.6 5.1 7.1 6.3
2007 -64.7 81.6 139.4 43.9 108.3 12.6 40.9 7.1
2008 -147.5 120.8 -80.3 19.4 29.5 20.6 -26.7 8.1
2009 -27.7 -8.9 27.9 35.7 380.4 39.7 9.4 26.6
2010 -94.7 31.7 58.0 33.3 241.4 20.6 23.1 11.2
2011 -134.5 38.6 4.1 23.0 124.7 45.3 29.6 0.4
2012 -6.2 19.3 6.4 12.4 81.2 14.5 22.6 2.1
Mar-11 -6.1 -2.2 8.2 7.1 13.1 2.5 4.5 2.0
Apr-11 1.4 10.5 4.6 7.5 14.0 2.4 5.1 0.6
May-11 -6.5 -4.7 1.8 0.7 19.6 5.0 4.0 -3.5
Jun-11 -20.3 1.2 -2.2 2.4 14.2 3.4 1.0 -0.7
Jul-11 -29.2 3.9 -2.6 2.6 9.6 2.8 -0.1 3.5
Aug-11 -26.4 2.0 -3.0 -3.5 -4.3 4.3 -3.2 -1.4
Sep-11 -13.2 -5.9 1.3 3.2 9.7 5.8 1.3 -0.3
Oct-11 -18.0 13.3 -2.4 5.2 11.4 4.5 4.8 -0.5
Nov-11 -14.0 -5.5 -4.6 -1.5 19.0 4.9 -4.9 2.8
Dec-11 -19.9 13.0 -8.9 1.4 9.5 6.3 2.7 -2.6
Jan-12 -2.1 12.4 1.9 6.5 27.9 7.8 8.0 1.6
Feb-12 -1.9 1.7 4.0 4.3 30.9 4.3 8.6 0.1
Mar-12 MTD -2.1 5.1 0.5 1.6 22.5 2.4 6.0 0.3
Last Twelve Months -152.4 47.0 -9.8 30.4 183.9 53.9 33.5 0.0
Wed, Mar 14 -1.4 4.8 -0.2 0.4 2.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0
Thu, Mar 15 0.0 2.7 -0.3 0.1 1.8 0.0 1.3 0.0
Fri, Mar 16 1.4 1.7 -0.2 -0.1 0.7 -0.1 0.7 0.0
Mon, Mar 19 0.3 -5.7 -0.3 0.3 -0.4 0.2 1.0 -0.1
Tue, Mar 20 0.3 1.9 -0.2 0.0 0.5 -0.3 0.3 -0.2

Trackable Mutual Funds: Cumulative Flows to Total Assets

Q3 2008 to Date

30%

20%

10%
% of Assets

0%

-10%

-20%

-30% US INTL BOND

Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12

TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. | 8

March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Long ETF: Cumulative Flow by Asset Class

50,000

40,000

30,000

20,000
$ millions

10,000

-10,000
Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
US INTL Bond Commodity

Short ETF: Cumulative Flow by Asset Class

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
$ millions

1000
500
0
-500
-1000
Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12

US INTL Commodity

TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. | 9

March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Hedge Fund Flows

Hedge Fund Flows by Strategies
Year-to- Year-to- Year-to- Last 12 Last 12 Last 12
Feb-12 Feb-12 Feb-12 Feb-12
$ billion Date Date Date Months Months Months
Total
Flow Flow/TNA Return Flow Flow/TNA Return Flow Flow/TNA Return
Assets

Convertible Arbitrage 0.2 0.4% 1.6% -0.4 -0.9% 3.8% 0.2 0.5% 0.4% 39.8
Distressed Securities 0.9 0.8% 1.6% -0.5 -0.4% 4.4% -1.8 -1.6% -5.1% 111.4
Emerging Markets -0.3 -0.1% 4.1% -4.7 -2.1% 9.2% -9.5 -4.2% -4.5% 225.1
Equity Long Bias -10.0 -6.7% 3.7% -8.5 -5.7% 8.5% -11.5 -7.7% -4.2% 150.3
Equity Long Only -0.7 -0.8% 4.1% -1.3 -1.5% 10.5% 1.0 1.1% -3.6% 86.7
Equity Long-Short 0.0 0.0% 1.6% -5.1 -3.4% 3.9% -5.2 -3.5% -2.6% 149.8
Equity Market Neutral 0.0 0.1% 0.8% 0.2 0.6% 1.9% -0.2 -0.8% 1.7% 27.9
Event Driven 0.5 0.3% 2.4% -0.5 -0.3% 5.3% -4.3 -2.6% -1.0% 169.0
Fixed Income 4.5 2.1% 1.5% 5.3 2.5% 2.9% 14.9 6.9% 4.4% 214.2
Macro 2.3 1.6% 1.8% 3.7 2.6% 3.9% 8.3 5.7% 0.0% 145.0
Merger Arbitrage 0.1 0.3% 1.2% -0.2 -0.6% 1.8% 0.9 3.2% 4.5% 26.8
Multi-Strategy 3.0 1.3% 0.5% 5.2 2.2% 1.9% 19.1 8.1% -2.8% 234.6
Other 0.2 0.6% -0.2% -0.4 -1.2% 1.8% 0.7 2.5% 14.0% 30.0
Sector Specific 0.7 0.7% 0.7% -2.7 -2.8% 3.4% 0.3 0.3% -2.5% 94.2
Hedge Fund Industry 1.2 0.1% 2.3% -9.8 -0.6% 5.4% 12.7 0.7% -1.9% 1704.7

Funds of Funds 0.3 0.1% 1.6% -3.0 -0.6% 3.3% -22.6 -4.4% -4.2% 507.6
CTAs 3.5 1.0% 0.7% 5.7 1.7% 0.8% 34.6 10.3% -2.3% 336.4
Direct Investment In HF 0.9 -6.8 35.3

Hedge Fund Flows by Type

Hedge Fund
$ billion Funds of Funds All CTAs
Industry

November-10 14.5 -1.7 -3.1

December-10 -2.8 -2.1 2.9
January-11 9.2 -2.1 4.3
February-11 23.7 -4.0 7.3
March-11 13.6 3.7 6.9
April-11 9.0 3.8 7.0
May-11 11.1 5.0 6.4
June-11 4.2 -2.3 3.5
July-11 -6.2 -0.3 5.8
August-11 7.1 0.3 8.3
September-11 -3.5 -8.8 -2.3
October-11 -5.7 -5.0 0.5
November-11 2.3 -2.9 -2.5
December-11 -9.4 -13.1 -4.7
January-12 -11.0 -3.3 2.2
February-12 1.2 0.3 3.5

TrimTabs Investment Research, Inc. | 10

March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Short Interest Flows

All data as of February 29

NYSE Short Interest

17

16
Billions

15

14

13

12
Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12

NYSE Short Interest By Sector February 29, 2012

Short Interest % SI Change SI Ratio SIR Change % Float % Float Change
Energy 1.35B -0.93 3.53 -0.28 6 0.08
Materials 951.05M 1.33 5.26 0.53 4.05 0.01
Industrials 1.1B -0.68 6.08 -0.18 4.3 -0.06
Consumer Discretionary 1.98B 0.72 7.91 0.32 7.91 -0.06
Consumer Staples 632.64M 1.48 5.74 0.32 4.14 0.05
Health Care 656.34M 0.07 6.82 1.25 3.76 -0.04
Financials 2.26B -1.71 6.41 0.02 4.05 -0.12
Information Technology 1.09B -2.65 5.48 0.79 4.31 -0.15
Telecommunication Services 333.28M 7.67 5.73 1.32 1.49 0.15
Utilities 394.23M 2.41 5.18 -0.38 2.44 0.07
All Securities 10.75B -0.19 6.01 0.23 4.73 -0.04

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March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

TrimTabs Demand Index

The TrimTabs Demand Index Closed at 88.4 on March 20 up from 86.72 on March 19, which is very Bullish.

The TrimTabs Demand Index (TTDI) measures demand conditions on the US stock market. It is bounded between 0 (very bearish) and 100 (very bullish)
Over the past nine years, it has correlated extremely well with stock prices movements
For more information on the TTDI, contact Minyi Chen (Chen.Minyi@TrimTabs.com)

The TrimTabs Demand Index Closed at 88.4 on March 20 up from 86.72 on March 19, which is very Bullish.
Variable Unit Current Value (1) Indexed Value (2) Regression T-Stat (3) Impact on the Index

AAII Sentiment Survey % Bull - % Bear 20.59% 80.22 0.43 1.21

Hedge Fund Sentiment Survey % Bull - % Bear 8.49% 81.19 0.93 2.71
Equity Mutual Funds Flows Flow/TNA 0.00% 62.82 -0.81 -1.00
Bond Mutual Funds Flows Flow/TNA 0.09% 98.70 0.69 3.14
Long Equity ETFs Flows Flow/TNA 0.06% 36.19 -3.16 4.18
Short Equity ETFs Flows Flow/TNA 0.15% 75.02 -1.47 -3.53
Equity Futures Flows Flow/TNA 0.04% 1.83 0.40 -1.79
Level of net Position of Speculative Traders on Equity futures (long-Short)/Open Interest -3.60% 49.61 -0.39 0.01
Change Net Position of Speculative Traders on Equity Futures (long-Short)/Open Interest 1.99% 50.17 -0.51 -0.01
Level of Short Interest on S&P 500 Stocks Stdev Units 0.72 91.87 -0.20 -0.82
Change in Short Interest on S&P 500 stocks % Change 0.51% 76.45 -0.96 -2.44
Put/Call Ratio Level Put/Calls -0.88 26.74 -0.76 1.70
Put Call ratio Change % Change -1.20% 45.51 -0.86 0.37
Margin Debt % Change 0.72% 63.72 1.51 1.93
Credit Balance in Margin Account % Change 1.73% 84.86 1.34 4.36
Flows into Hedge Funds Flow/Assets -0.18% 20.93 -0.62 1.72
VIX Index Close Price -17.55 67.19 -0.69 -1.14
Individual Investors Active Stock Allocation % Change -1.46% 60.39 0.74 0.72
Retail Money Market Fund Assets $ Billion -647.89 94.26 1.67 6.87
Cash Balance of Equity Mutual Funds % of Assets 0.00% 99.99 1.67 7.77
Excess margin Debt % Margin Debt - % SP Ret -0.17% 23.01 1.35 -3.40
(1) 2-Month Moving Average
(2) 0= Extreme Fear, 100= Extreme Greed
(3) Measured by individually regressing each component against S&P 500 returns since Jan 2000

How to Read the Above Tables

Cash Balance of Equity Mutual Funds indicate greed, which is bullish for equities.
VIX Index indicate greed, which is bearish for equities.
Note: we used regression analysis over the past nine years to determine whether greed in each variable was associated with positive stocks' returns

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March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

TrimTabs Demand Index

Impact of Each Demand Measure on the TTDI on March 20

Demand Measures Bearish Bullish
Cash Balance of Equity Mutual Funds 8
Retail Money Market Fund Assets 7
Credit Balance in Margin Account 4
Long Equity ETFs Flows 2 4
Bond Mutual Funds Flows 3
Hedge Fund Sentiment Survey 3
Margin Debt 2
Flows into Hedge Funds 2
Put/Call Ratio Level 2
AAII Sentiment Survey 1
Individual Investors Active Stock Allocation 1
Put Call ratio Change 0
Level of net Position of Speculative Traders on Equity futures 0
Change Net Position of Speculative Traders on Equity Futures 0
Level of Short Interest on S&P 500 Stocks -1
Equity Mutual Funds Flows -1
VIX Index -1
Equity Futures Flows -2
Change in Short Interest on S&P 500 stocks -3
Excess margin Debt -3
Short Equity ETFs Flows -4

Fear/Greed Reading of Each Demand Measure on March 20

Demand Measures Fear Greed
Cash Balance of Equity Mutual Funds 100
Retail Money Market Fund Assets 94
Credit Balance in Margin Account 85
Long Equity ETFs Flows 36
Bond Mutual Funds Flows 99
Hedge Fund Sentiment Survey 81
Margin Debt 64
Flows into Hedge Funds 21
Put/Call Ratio Level 27
AAII Sentiment Survey 80
Individual Investors Active Stock Allocation 60
Put Call ratio Change 45
Level of net Position of Speculative Traders on Equity futures 50
Change Net Position of Speculative Traders on Equity Futures 50
Level of Short Interest on S&P 500 Stocks 92
Equity Mutual Funds Flows 63
VIX Index 67
Equity Futures Flows 2
Change in Short Interest on S&P 500 stocks 76
Excess margin Debt 23
Short Equity ETFs Flows 75

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March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Annex 1: TrimTabs Dataset

Global Insider Trading Dataset
10 Countries, 23,000+ Companies, Market Cap: $31.4 Billion as of July 2008

Exchange Country Market Cap ($T) Companies Start Date Reporting Lag Source Benefits of the Dataset
NYSE, Duplicate Transactions and option-related
Nasdaq & USA 18.1 13,600 Jan-03 1-2 Days SEC buying is excluded. Aggregation by GICS
sector
Amex
TSX Canada 1.8 3,710 Jan 06 1-30 Days SEDI

London
London Stock
Stock United 3.2 3,233 Jun-06 1-2 Days Exchange
Exchange Kingdom
AMF, Commission
Bancaire, Financiere et
France,
Euronext 3.3 1,022 Jan-06 1-30 Days des Assurance, the
Belgium, Autoriteit Financiale
Not other known source for this data.
Netherlands Markten
Aggregation by ICB Sectors
Deustche
1.7 851 Jan-07 1-3 Days BAFIN
Boerse Germany
Hong Kong Hong Kong 2 307 Jan-07 1-3 Days HKEX

ASX Australia 1.6 1841 Sep-08 1-3 Days ASX

KRX Korea 1 1,809 Sep-08 1-3 Days KRX

Singapore Singapore 0.5 747 Sep-08 1-3 Days SGX

Fund Flows Dataset

Assets of $1.3 Tril. Daily and $13.2 Tril. Monthly
Fund Type Periodicity AUM ($ Billion) Fund Count Start Date Categorization Source Benefits of the Dataset

Asset Class, Only daily survey of mutual funds.

685
Mutual Funds Daily 2,168 Jan-98 Morningstar Daily Survey Adjusted for dividends and
8% of total distribution. Smart categorization
Category

Covers almost all US-listed mutual

Asset Class, Style, funds. Predicts the ICI number one
11,900 Industry, Retail vs week in advance. Full transparency
Mutual Funds Monthly 15,163 Aug-07 Monthly Survey
80% of total Insitiutional, and smart categorization
Geographical Focus (breakdonw between retail and
institutional funds)

Asset Class, Style, Covers almost all US-listed ETFs.

Regular updates for new ETFs
592 Industry,
ETFs Daily 714 Jan-00 Daily Survey listings. Smart categorization: GICS
95% of total Morningstar industry, short vs long ETFs,
Category futures-related, etc

Monthly, one Covers one third of the hedge fund

611 13 Strategies and BarclayHedge universe. Monthly update while
Hedge Funds month in 4,313 Jan-00
33% of total Size Database indusrtry generally provides
arrear statistics on an annual basis.

Monthly, one Covers one third of the hedge fund

Funds of 367 BarclaHedge universe. Monthly update while
month in 2,570 Jan-00 Size
Funds 36% of total Database indusrtry generally provides
arrear statistics on an annual basis.

Commodity- Monthly, one Covers one third of the hedge fund

361 BarclayHedge universe. Monthly update while
Traded month in 2,134 Jan-00 Strategy and Size
80% of total database indusrtry generally provides
Advisors arrear statistics on an annual basis.

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March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Futures and Short Interest Dataset

Assets of $323 Bn Daily
Data Type Periodicity AUM ($ Billion) Start Date Categorization Source Benefits of the Dataset
Data Aggregated over All Contracts.
S&P 500
Daily 184 Jan-84 Maturity CME "Money flows" are adjusted for roll-
Futures over between contracts

Data Aggregated over All Contracts.

E-Minis Daily 139 Jan 96 Maturity CME "Money flows" are adjusted for roll-
over between contracts

Data Aggregated over All Contracts.

Crude Oil NYMEX, ICE,
Daily 270 Jul-08 "Money flows" are adjusted for roll-
Futures DME over between contracts

Currency, Equity, Covers 4,313 contracts.

Commitment Aggregation over relevant contract
Bi-Weekly 611 Jan-00 Commodity, CFTC groups. Can be crossed-matched with
of Traders
Interest Rates money flows into equity contracts.
GICS Sector, Style
Nasdaq & Aggregation over equity indices and
Short Interest Bi-Weekly 21,000 Jan-00 and Size, Major ETFs. Covers all US-listed stocks.
NYSE
Indices

Annex 2: Library of Research Notes

Library of Research Notes

Topic Variable Market Title Summary Date Updated

Regression Analysis Confirms L1 Regression Analysis shows that

weekly L1 is a statistically
L1 US Can Predict the Direction of the S&P significant determinant of January 2008
500 market returns since 1999

Companies with large buybacks

tend to outperfrom in the year
To What Extent Do Buybacks Benefit following the buyback
Corporate Liquidity Buybacks US
Shareholders?
announncement. The
outperformance is greatest for
September 2008

companies which do shrink the

float.
TrimTabs introduces a new
proprietary L1 Index to help
L1 US Introducing the TrimTabs L1 Index more easily interpret L1, the January 2008
key indicator of supply side
equity market liquidity.

L1 and insider transaction data

L1 / Insider Transactions
Using L1 and Insider Trading Data aggregated at the GICS 1 level
can help identify outperforming
US to Rotate Between Industries (GICS sectors. Investors can achieve May 2008
1) alpha on both the long and
short side.

L1 and insider transaction data

aggregated at the GICS 2 level
Sector Rotation Using L1 and Insider Trading Data
can help identify outperforming
L1 / Insider Transactions US to Rotate Between Industry groups sectors. Investors can achieve
September 2008
(GICS 2) alpha on both the long and
short side.

Buybacks and insider

Buybacks / Insider transactions can be using to
United Kingdom Sector Rotation Models on the LSE identify ooutperforming sectors July 2008
Transaction
on the London stock Exchange

Flows into equity futures have

Flows into Equity Futures US Futures Flows Presentation been highly correlated to July 2008
market volatility since 1986

Definition and backtesting of

Flows Development and portfolio level the short interest flow volume
backtesting of a short interest flow ratio indicator for constructing
Short Interest US August 2008
based indicator for the S&P 500 portfolios of heavily shorted
stocks equity assets at the stock,
GICS I, and GICS II levels.

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March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Annex 3: TrimTabs Model Portfolios

TrimTabs Model Portfolios Performance

Friday, March 16, 2012

Demand
S&P 500 S&P 500 Sector S&P 500
% Change TTMP Index
(SPY) (SPY) Portfolio (SPY)
Portfolio
Inception Date 29-Sep-00 2-Sep-08 16-Mar-06

2000 -10.7 -8.4

2001 32.0 -11.8
2002 63.4 -21.6
2003 0.1 28.2
2004 19.9 10.4
2005 13.9 4.8
2006 16.2 15.8 30.7 10.1
2007 9.9 5.1 5.0 5.1
2008 -30.7 -36.8 33.4 -28.5 -26.5 -36.8
2009 -39.9 26.4 78.1 26.4 16.8 26.4
2010 -9.6 14.5 40.1 14.5 14.1 14.5
2011 -6.6 1.3 16.0 1.3 5.4 1.3

Apr-11 2.8 2.9 6.8 2.9 4.0 2.9

May-11 -1.9 -1.1 -2.3 -1.1 -0.7 -1.1
Jun-11 -2.8 -1.7 -3.6 -1.7 -5.5 -1.7
Jul-11 -0.8 -2.0 -4.8 -2.0 -1.6 -2.0
Aug-11 -0.8 -5.5 -5.1 -5.5 -4.2 -5.5
Sep-11 -3.1 -6.9 -14.0 -6.9 -4.7 -6.9
Oct-11 -4.8 10.9 22.0 10.9 11.8 10.9
Nov-11 0.0 -0.4 3.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4
Dec-11 0.0 0.4 3.5 0.4 3.1 0.4
Jan-12 0.2 4.2 7.0 4.2 3.2 4.2
Feb-12 -2.1 4.3 4.8 4.3 1.9 4.3
Mar-12 1.4 2.8 5.7 2.8 2.7 2.8

Last Week 1.2 2.4 4.9 2.4 0.8 2.4

2012 YTD -0.5 11.8 18.5 11.8 8.0 11.8
Since Inception 17.7 18.5 357.6 17.0 53.0 19.8

The TrimTabs Family of Products

Weekly Liquidity Review (Mon)
Daily Liquidity Report (Mon-Fri)
Overnight Liquidity Update (Mon-Thurs)
Weekly Macro Analysis (Tues)
Weekly International Liquidity Review (Tues)
Weekly Flow Report (Wed)

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March 21, 2012 Weekly Flow Report

Legal Disclaimer
The data and analysis contained herein are provided "as is" and without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied.
TrimTabs Investment Research (TTIR) any affiliates or employees, or any third party data provider, shall not have any
liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained in any TTIR publication. All opinions
expressed herein are subject to change without notice, and you should always obtain current information and perform due
diligence before trading. TTIR accounts that TTIR or its affiliated companies manage, or their respective shareholders,
directors, officers and/or employees, may have long or short positions in the securities discussed herein and may purchase or
sell such securities without notice. TTIR uses various methods to evaluate investments, which may, at times, produce
contradictory recommendations with respect to the same securities. When evaluating the results of prior TTIR
recommendations or TTIR performance rankings, one should also consider that TTIR may modify the methods it uses to
evaluate investment opportunities from time to time. For this and for many other reasons, the performance of TTIR's past
recommendations is not a guarantee of future results. The securities mentioned in this document may not be eligible for sale
in some states or countries, nor be suitable for all types of investors; their value and income they produce may fluctuate
and/or be adversely affected by exchange rates, interest rates or other factors. TTIR has an investment management
affiliate, TrimTabs Asset Management (TTAM) which actively invests in highly liquid ETF securities which are sometimes
similar or identical to those tracked in the TTIR model portfolio and sometimes different. The portfolio trades held by
TTAM will not always be the same as those recommended by TTIR, primarily because the TTIR trade recommendations are
updated weekly while TTAM portfolios are managed on a daily basis as conditions change. Due to the highly liquid nature
of ETF securities tracked by TTIR, TrimTabs does not believe there is the potential for conflicts of interest. Further
distribution prohibited without prior permission. Copyright 2009 TrimTabs Investment Research. All rights reserved.

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