Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
The Outlook
for the Broadcast Networks
David F. Poltrack
Chief Research Officer, CBS Corporation
President, CBS Vision
UBS 44th ANNUAL GLOBAL MEDIA AND COMMUNICATIONS CONFERENCE
UBS 44th ANNUAL GLOBAL MEDIA AND COMMUNICATIONS CONFERENCE
The forward-looking statements are made only as of the date of the presentation and we do not undertake to update any
forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances.
3
Overview
4
Overview
Increasing Stability in the Television Advertising Market
5
The Short-Term Forecast
Revisit the 2016 Forecast
Address the Economic Outlook
The Outlook for 2017
The Audience Picture
6
Original 2016 Forecast
Network Television Ad Revenues + 9.5%
Underlying Growth Rate + 5.0%
7
The Current Market
Sellers Upfront Market
Scatter Market Remains Strong for Q4 2016
Audience Deficiency Obligations at Manageable Levels
Olympics Bring Less Incremental Spending
8
Current 2016 Forecast
Network Television Ad Revenues + 8.0%
Underlying Growth Rate + 4.0%
9
The Outlook for 2017
The Economic Picture:
Growth in GDP has been sluggish but picked up in Q3
Consumer spending has been growing at a more substantial rate
Private sector employment gains are very encouraging
Weekly wages and earnings are finally beginning to rise, as well
Rising retail sales
10
2017 Forecast
11
2017 Forecast
12
2017 Forecast
The Upside: Q3
13
2017 Forecast
The Upside: Q4
14
2017 Forecast
15
Advertising Dollars as a Percent of Marketing Dollars
24.0%
23.3% 23.0%
22.3% 22.4% 22.5%
21.8%
24.0%
23.3% 23.0%
22.3% 22.4% 22.5%
21.8%
$15,000,000,000
2009 2016
17
Low Trade Promotion Success Rate
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
67% 72%
50%
Did Not Break Even
40% Did Not Break Even
30%
20%
10%
0%
2014 2016
Source: Nielsens Research on ROI of Trade Promotion
18
19
Sponsors
20
21
There is a Kicker Effect When TV is
Combined with Digital Spending
ROI Increase by Platform / Combination
+60%
+19% +20%
Source: Analytic Partners, 2016; Analysis based on over 3,200 campaigns from 2010-2015. Digital 22
includes video and display advertising on desktop and mobile devices. Results are indexed to TV
Projected Growth in Advertising Share as a Percent of
Marketing Dollars
$15,000,000,000
$13,000,000,000
2007 2009 2018
24
The Audience Picture
New Broadcast Season Launch
Cable Network Issues Continue
Cable Universe Estimate Concerns
New Broadcast Series Discovery
Media Consumption Dynamics
NFL Audience Post-Election Gains
25
Primetime Broadcast Networks Live+7
2016-17 Season-to-Date
11,132
9,444
7,636 8,266
YOY Change
30
The Core Schedule - CBS
8:00 8:30 9:00 9:30 10:00 10:30
Monday Kevin Can Wait Man With A Plan 2 Broke Girls The Odd Couple Scorpion
Thursday The Big Bang Theory The Great Indoors Mom Life In Pieces Pure Genius
31
Primetime Core Schedule C3
2016-17 Season-to-Date
2.6
2.1 1.9 2.1
1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3
Source: Nielsen NPM, Primetime, only regular programs in regular time periods; 9/19/16-11/13/16; C3 Data
32
Primetime Core Schedule Comps C3
2016-17 Season-to-Date vs. Year Ago
YOY Change
34
Primetime Broadcast vs. Cable C3
2016-17 Season-to-Date vs. Year Ago
YOY Change
# of Nets
Top 10 Billing Ad-Supported Cable Networks # of Nets Up
Down
Total Viewers 2 8
Adults 18-49 3 7
32.9% 33.0%
67.1% 67.0%
# of Nets
All Ad-Supported Cable Networks # of Nets Up
Down
Total Viewers 17 32
Adults 18-49 17 32
Source: Nielsen NPM, 4/1/16-10/2/16 vs. Comparable Year Ago Period; Ranked on Per2+ AA (000); Live+ 7 Data
39
Original Cable Shows Top 20 Rank
Fall-to-Date vs. Year Ago
Rank Program Net Viewers (000) % 000 Change T/Cs
1 WALKING DEAD AMC 18,223 -6% 4
2 AMERICAN HORROR STORY FX 6,407 -3% 9
3 TALKING DEAD AMC 6,295 -0% 4
4 GOLD RUSH DISC 4,261 -19% 5
5 REAL HOUSEWIVES ATLANTA BRVO 3,661 -4% 2
6 ALASKA: THE LAST FRONTIER DISC 3,437 -1% 5
7 WESTWORLD HBOM 3,177 NEW 7
8 SOUTH PARK CMDY 3,108 +17% 7
9 PROJECT RUNWAY LIF 3,078 -4% 9
10 CHRISLEY KNOWS BEST USA 2,970 +14% 14
11 QUEEN SUGAR OWN 2,947 NEW 10
12 IF LOVING YOU IS WRONG OWN 2,807 -3% 8
13 STREET OUTLAWS DISC 2,790 +8% 2
14 BELOW DECK BRVO 2,459 +36% 10
15 VANDERPUMP RULES BRVO 2,454 +14% 1
16 SHAMELESS S7 SHO1 2,377 -9% 7
17 TEEN MOM SSN 6 MTV 2,310 -23% 12
18 FAST N LOUD DISC 2,238 -9% 8
19 KEEPING UP KARDASHIANS ENT 2,188 -32% 4
20 MARRIED TO MEDICINE BRVO 2,129 +42% 2
Source: Nielsen NPM, 9/19/16-11/13/16 vs. Comparable Year Ago Period; Ranked on Per2+ AA (000); Live+7 Data
40
Cable Relying on Broadcast Content
More than Ever
Off-Network Series Percent of Total Day Schedule
91.8%
86.1%
75.6%
72.3%
66.6% 64.5%
59.0% 60.3%
Source: Nielsen NPM, Persons 2+ AA (000), Cable News Networks=CNN, FOXNC, MSNBC.
Pre-Election: 9/19/16-11/6/16 vs. 9/21/15-11/8/15. Post-Election: 11/14/16-11/27/16 vs.11/16/15-11/29/15 42
The Audience Picture
New Broadcast Season Launch
Cable Network Issues Continue
Cable Universe Estimate Concerns
New Broadcast Series Discovery
Media Consumption Dynamics
NFL Audience Post-Election Gains
43
Top 10 Billing Cable Coverage Comps
November 2016 vs. November 2015
Universe Estimates (000) YOY
Nov-16 Nov-15 Change
Top 10 Average 90,876 92,982 -2.3%
ESPN 88,956 91,802 -3.1%
AMC 91,451 93,826 -2.5%
MTV 89,148 91,225 -2.3%
Discovery 92,763 94,916 -2.3%
USA 92,557 94,693 -2.3%
TNT 91,350 93,361 -2.2%
TBS 92,690 94,698 -2.1%
Fox News Channel 90,963 92,818 -2.0%
Bravo 88,468 90,266 -2.0%
Comedy Central 90,415 92,210 -1.9%
45
New Series Sampling - Watched
All Fall Premieres
Total Viewer Cume Audience (000)
11,700 11,500
11,300
10,800
46% 51%
2015-16 2016-17
57% 55%
53%
50% 51% 48%
47%
43%
37% 38% 36% 36%
9% 7% 7% 8%
5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 6%
3% 3%
Live as Scheduled Time Shifted with DVR Streamed or Downloaded Watched on VOD
Total
Category 1 14,592 5,043 21,257
+46%
477
Source: Nielsen NPM, Per 2+ AA (000); comScore/Rentrak ODE, CBSi Internal Data Warehouse;
Premiere Episode Plus 35 Day Viewing Window, 9/20/16-11/8/16
51
New Series Discovery 2016-17
First Two Episode Averages - Live+35 Days
Total
Category
1 2.1 1.0 3.6
+71%
0.2
Source: Nielsen NPM, A18-49 AA %; comScore/Rentrak ODE CBSi Internal Data Warehouse;
Premiere Episode Plus 35 Day Viewing Window, 9/20/16-11/8/16
52
New Series Discovery 2016-17
Total Viewer Cume Audience (000)
45,059
43,051
38,508 40,723
35,180
29,747
Cume Audience
New Audience
22,445
7,302
5,433
3,328 2,215 2,328 2,008
54
Technology/Services Penetration
Third Quarter 2016
Multi-Media Enabled
SVOD DVR Game Console Device Smart TV
54% 52% 43% 28% 25%
YOY +18% +6% -4% +25% +33%
Sources: The Nielsen Total Audience Report, Q3 2016 and changes vs. Q3 2015
55
Time Spent With Media Trend
Second Quarter Adults 18+
Weekly Time Spent in the Total US Population A18+
Source: Nielsen Total Audience Report and Audience Insights Analysis Q2 2016
56
Hours of Daily TV Viewing Trend
Broadcast Years
6.00
Average Hours.Minutes Viewed Per Adult 18+ Per Day
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Source: Nielsen NPM, Adults 18+, September-September Averages, Total Day; 1996/97 - 2005/06: Live TV Only.
2006/07 - Present: Live TV+DVR Playback + Encoded VOD Play (2013/14 - Present).
57
Change in Media Habits
In what year do you believe your media habits changed the most?
43%
32%
20%
5%
0%
58
Alternate Viewing Source Trend
Change vs. Prior Year
+42%
+37%
+6% +8%
+2% n.c. n/a
n.c.
-3% -5%
Source: DVR based on Nielsen NPM, September-October Averages each year; Households; VOD based on Rentrak/comScore,
September-October Averages. Online Streaming based on Nielsen Q2 Total Audience Report (2016, 2015) & Cross Platform
Report (2014 & 2013), Weekly Time Spent, Adults 18+, Multi-media Device, Video on PC and Video on Smart Phone.
59
Alternate Viewing Source Trend
Change vs. Prior Year
+42%
+37%
-3% -5%
Source: DVR based on Nielsen NPM, September-October Averages each year; Households; VOD based on Rentrak/comScore,
September-October Averages. Online Streaming based on Nielsen Q2 Total Audience Report (2016, 2015) & Cross Platform
Report (2014 & 2013), Weekly Time Spent, Adults 18+, Multi-media Device, Video on PC and Video on Smart Phone.
60
DVR Impact
2016-17 Season-to-Date vs. Prior Two Years
6.4
A50+ 6.7
6.9 +3%
5.2%
3.8%
+42%
+37%
-3% -5%
Source: DVR based on Nielsen NPM, September-October Averages each year; Households; VOD based on Rentrak/comScore,
September-October Averages. Online Streaming based on Nielsen Q2 Total Audience Report (2016, 2015) & Cross Platform
Report (2014 & 2013), Weekly Time Spent, Adults 18+, Multi-media Device, Video on PC and Video on Smart Phone.
63
VOD Nielsen C3 CBS Primetime Lift
2016-17 Season-to-Date
+7.4%
+4.1%
+42%
+37%
-3% -5%
Source: DVR based on Nielsen NPM, September-October Averages each year; Households; VOD based on Rentrak/comScore,
September-October Averages. Online Streaming based on Nielsen Q2 Total Audience Report (2016, 2015) & Cross Platform
Report (2014 & 2013), Weekly Time Spent, Adults 18+, Multi-media Device, Video on PC and Video on Smart Phone.
65
Multi-Media Device Impact
2016-17 Season-to-Date vs. Prior Two Years
1.0
A18-49 1.9
3.0 +58%
28%
22%
15% 0.4
A50+ 0.9
1.5 +67%
43%
34% 34% 34%
58%
57%
57%
51%
49%
47%
46%
46%
43%
38%
38%
34%
34%
32%
32%
31%
31%
31%
31%
31%
30%
29%
28%
28%
27%
26%
22%
19%
2013 N/A
2012 N/A
Desktop Laptop TV with Game TV with Other Smartphone Tablet
Console/PC (Incl. OTT)
140%
120%
49% 42%
100%
80%
60%
0%
2015 2016
Source: CBS Entertainment Panel, November, Includes multiple responses
69
TV Show Streaming Trend
Streaming More or Less vs. This Time Last Year
43%
32% 36% 34% 32%
14% 11% 13% 12% 7%
More Less
71
Cross Platform Measurement Players
72
Nielsen Total Content Ratings
Components
Live Television
DVR Playback
Video on Demand Play
OTT Streaming
Desktop Streaming
Laptop Streaming
Smartphone Streaming
Tablet Streaming
73
What is the total viewership when all
platforms are added together?
74
New Series Discovery 2016-17
First Two Episode Averages - Live+35 Days
Total
Category 1 14,592 5,043 21,257
+46%
477
Source: Nielsen NPM, Per 2+ AA (000); comScore/Rentrak ODE, CBSi Internal Data Warehouse;
Premiere Episode Plus 35 Day Viewing Window, 9/20/16-11/8/16
75
New Series Discovery 2016-17
First Two Episode Averages - Live+35 Days
Total
Category
1 2.1 1.0 3.6
+71%
0.2
Source: Nielsen NPM, A18-49 AA %; comScore/Rentrak ODE CBSi Internal Data Warehouse;
Premiere Episode Plus 35 Day Viewing Window, 9/20/16-11/8/16
76
CBS Primetime Multi-Platform Audience Shift
Total Viewers in Millions 2016-17 vs. 2015-16
2016-17 Top 10 (Live+35 Days) 2015-16 Top 10 (Live+35 Days)
BIG BANG THEORY, THE 22.73 BIG BANG THEORY, THE 24.15
CBS All Prime Average 14.33 CBS All Prime Average 14.09
Source: Nielsen NPM, Per 2+ AA (000); comScore/Rentrak ODE, CBSi Internal Data Warehouse;
9/19/16-11/13/2016 vs 9/21/1511/15/15 77
CBS Primetime Multi-Platform Audience Shift
Total Viewers in Millions 2016-17 vs. Ten Years Ago
2016-17 Top 10 (Live+35 Days) 2006-07 Top 10 (Live)
BIG BANG THEORY, THE 22.73 CSI 22.06
CBS All Prime Average 14.33 CBS All Prime Average 13.00
Source: Nielsen NPM, Per 2+ AA (000); comScore/Rentrak ODE, CBSi Internal Data Warehouse;
9/19/16-11/13/2016 vs 9/18/0610/8/07 78
The Audience Picture
New Broadcast Season Launch
Cable Network Issues Continue
Cable Universe Estimate Concerns
New Series Discovery
Media Consumption Dynamics
NFL Audience Post-Election Gains
79
NFL Gains Post-Election Out-Pace 2015
Games Pre/Post Election 2016 vs. 2015
Viewers (000)
20,088
19,071 18,648
16,604
+15% +8%
2016 2015
NFL Weeks 1-9 NFL Weeks 10-12
Source: Nielsen NPM, Percent changes based on Persons 2+ AA (000), Pre Election Day: NFL Weeks 1-9 (9/10-11/9/15,
9/8/16-11/7/16); Post Election Day: NFL Weeks 10-12 (11/15-11/30/15, 11/13/16-11/28/16). CBS and FOX, Sunday Afternoon +
Thanksgiving, NBC and ESPN Primetime games, Thursday Night Football Games Excluded . Live+SD data
80
According to Nielsen live-plus-same-day
data, the Cowboys' 31-26 victory
delivered a staggering 35.1 million
viewers and a 14.5 household rating,
making it the most-watched regular-
season contest on Fox since the
network first began broadcasting NFL
games back in 1994.
81
The Longer-Term Outlook
82
The Longer-Term Outlook
From Counting the House to Measuring Results
TV Ad $ Moving to Digital
83
From Counting the House to Measuring Results
84
Ad Cost vs. Audience Delivery
Correlations
Adults 18-49
0.91 0.88 0.85
0.76
0.69
Fall 2009 Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2015
Source: Nielsen NPM and AdViews; Top 50 returning series, excludes sports
85
Millennials Value Will Increase Over Time
86
Campaign Performance Audit Components
87
MEDIA PLANS EMPHASIZE DELIVERY AND EFFICIENCY
High ratings in the A18-49 demo coupled with a concentrated A18-49 audience
The Upper Right Quadrant is where you want to see the programs you buy
4.000
3.000
2.000
ht 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
1.000
0.000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Sources: Nielsen Monitor+, Nielsen National People Meter and Nielsen Buyer Insights. Apr 25 2016 - May 29 2016. Live+3.
Circles represent regularly scheduled broadcast primetime shows that air during May 2016 88
EMPIRE EFFICIENTLY DELIVERS A18-49
And comes at a premium CPM based on its young, large, concentrated audience
Blue Bloods delivers a good A18-49 rating compared to other programs but at below average concentration
4.000
3.000
2.000
ht 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
1.000
0.000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Sources: Nielsen Monitor+, Nielsen National People Meter and Nielsen Buyer Insights. Apr 25 2016 - May 29 2016. Live+3.
Circles represent regularly scheduled broadcast primetime shows that air during May 2016 89
DELIVERY OF BUYERS TELLS ANOTHER STORY
Blue Bloods delivers a high buyer rating for a major retailer with about average concentration
4.000
3.000
2.000
ht 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
1.000
0.000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Sources: Nielsen Monitor+, Nielsen National People Meter and Nielsen Buyer Insights. Apr 25 2016 - May 29 2016. Live+3.
Circles represent regularly scheduled broadcast primetime shows that air during May 2016 90
BLUE BLOODS VIEWERS SPEND MORE WITH THIS MAJOR
RETAILER THAN DO VIEWERS OF EMPIRE
4.000
3.000
2.000
ht 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
1.000
0.000
$165 $170 $175 $180 $185 $190 $195 $200
Sources: Nielsen Monitor+, Nielsen National People Meter and Nielsen Buyer Insights. Apr 25 2016 - May 29 2016. Live+3.
Circles represent regularly scheduled broadcast primetime shows that air during May 2016 91
ADD COST TO THE ANALYSIS AND BLUE BLOODS MORE
EFFICIENTLY DELIVERS THIS MAJOR RETAILERS BUYERS
Buyer Ratings and (Average Purchase $ per Buyer Index x Inverse Buyer CPM Index)
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
ht 2015 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
1.000
0.000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Sources: Nielsen Monitor+, Nielsen National People Meter and Nielsen Buyer Insights. Apr 25 2016 - May 29 2016. Live+3.
Circles represent regularly scheduled broadcast primetime shows that air during May 2016 92
Growth: Nielsen Single Source
Five years ago only 20% of networks were using Nielsen Single Source
data; today, virtually every network group uses Nielsen Single Source
NCS and NBI are used by over 70 TV network Ad Sales teams
Over 200 advertisers actively use NCS/NBI for media planning and buying
The top 10 media agencies utilize NCS/NBI for national television, digital
desktop and mobile media
25% of all pharmaceutical national TV spend utilizes NCS Rx
93
Relevant Projects
SINGLE SOURCE DATA BANKS
94
Campaign Performance Audit Components
95
Top CPG Categories Long-Term Spending Patterns
27%
40% 43% 43% 42%
9% Cable Other
Cable Prime
24% 15%
20% 20% 21%
Broadcast Other
17%
15% 15% 15% Broadcast Prime
40%
28% 22% 22% 22%
Source: Nielsen Monitor+ Jan-Dec Total Spend, $10mm+ annual Ad spend, excluding sports
96
From: Counting the House
To: Measuring Results
97
Weekly Reach Two Competitive Food Brands
Fourth Quarter 2013
Category Buyers
57.2
Average Weekly Reach
Cable Other
48.7 35.5
Cable Prime
Cable Other
48.5 48.6
Cable Prime
21.9 24.2
2.4 Broadcast = 0
11%
$5,000,000
$4,000,000
YOY -24% -38%
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
$0
$5,000,000
$4,000,000
YOY +2% +88%
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
$0
Cable Prime
23.5
Broadcast Other
29.6 15.7
Broadcast Prime
17.3
23.4
5.8
15.4 12.2
Broadcast = 0
Cable Prime
28.1
33.6 Broadcast Other
13.5 Broadcast Prime
23.8
18.0
12.7
15.2
6.5 Broadcast = 0
$5,000,000
$4,000,000
YOY -24% -38% +330%
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
$0
$5,000,000
$4,000,000
YOY +2% +88% +31%
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
$1,000,000
$0
Cable Prime
27.7 34.8
Broadcast Other
10.4 21.6 Broadcast Prime
23.6 15.0
7.3
12.0 8.0
+4.4%
-0.8% -0.5%
109
Campaign Performance Audit Components
112
Yes, Advertising Works.
Now, Whats My ROAS Across Media Platforms?
Meet the Dataset
Nearly 1,400 studies with complete data
11 years of tracking, though not all
media tracked over all years
Media: TV, Online Display & Video,
Mobile, Cross-Platform, Magazines
450 CPG brands in the U.S.
All reported values with less than 10
studies are removed and all values with
between 10-20 studies are shown with
faded color
$3.94
$1.53
Source: Nielsen Catalina Solutions, Multi-Media Sales Effect Studies from 2004 Q4 2015. Copyright 2016 Nielsen Catalina Solutions
$0.26 $0.25
$0.23 $0.23
$0.19
Source: Nielsen Catalina Solutions, Multi-Media Sales Effect Studies from 2004 Q4 2015. Copyright 2016 Nielsen Catalina Solutions
117
Overview
Increasing Stability in the Television Advertising Market
118
TV Digital
TV Digital
Long Form
Video
TV Digital
Long Form
Video
TV Digital
Long Form
Video
TV Digital
Long Form
Video
Thank You
124