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Status Report |

Insurance Institute for Highway Safety Highway Loss Data Institute

High
claims Legalizing recreational
marijuana use is linked
to increase in crashes

4Research on alcohol is clear


4Lane maintenance systems still
ALSO IN a turnoff for many drivers
THIS ISSUE
Vol. 52, No. 4 4Tesla Model S doesnt follow the pack on
June 22, 2017 claims for electric vehicles or luxury cars
L
egalizing recreational marijuana use in Colorado, Oregon and More drivers admit to using marijuana, and it is showing up more
Washington has resulted in collision claim frequencies that are frequently among people involved in crashes. Though there is evi-
about 3 percent higher overall than would have been expected dence from simulator and on-road studies that marijuana can de-
without legalization, a new Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) analy- grade some aspects of driving performance, researchers havent
sis shows. This is HLDIs first look at how the legalization of marijuana been able to definitively connect marijuana use with more frequent
since 2014 has affected crashes reported to insurers. real-world crashes. Some studies have found that using the drug
could more than double crash risk, while others, including a large-
scale federal case-control study, have failed to find a link between
marijuana use and crashes (see Status Report, May 12, 2015, at iihs.
org). Studies on the effects of legalizing marijuana for medical use
also have been inconclusive.
Colorado and Washington were the first to legalize recreational
marijuana for adults 21 and older with voter approval in Novem-
ber 2012. Retail sales began in January 2014 in Colorado and in July
2014 in Washington. Oregon voters approved legalized recreation-
al marijuana in November 2014, and sales started in October 2015.
HLDI conducted a combined analysis using neighboring states
as additional controls to examine the collision claims experience of
Colorado, Oregon and Washington before and after law changes.
Control states included Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah and Wyo-
ming, plus Colorado, Oregon and Washington prior to legalization
of recreational use. During the study period, Nevada and Montana
permitted medical use of marijuana, Wyoming and Utah allowed
only limited use for medical purposes, and Idaho didnt permit any
use. Oregon and Washington authorized medical marijuana use in
Marijuana flowers are weighed at a dispensary near Crested Butte, 1998, and Colorado authorized it in 2000.
Colorado. The Rocky Mountain state was the first to begin retail sales HLDI also looked at loss results for each state individually com-
of recreational marijuana in January 2014 after voters endorsed rec- pared with loss results for adjacent states without legalized rec-
reational use of pot for adults 21 and older in November 2012. Retail reational marijuana use prior to November 2016. Data spanned
sales in Washington began six months after Colorado. collision claims filed between January 2012 and October 2016 for

2 | Status Report Vol. 52, No.4


Collision claims
Estimated effects of recreational marijuana sales in 3 states
Change in claim frequency for vehicles up to 33 years old, 2012-16
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Colorado Washington Oregon combined

Colorado saw the biggest estimated increase in claim frequency


compared with its control states. The combined effect for the three
states was smaller but still significant at 3 percent. The combined-
state analysis is a good representation of the effect of marijuana
legalization overall, while the single-state analyses show how the
effect can vary from state to state.

1981 to 2017 model vehicles. Analysts controlled for differences in Key dates for laws in study states
the rated driver population, insured vehicle fleet, the mix of urban Colorado was first with retail sales of recreational marijuana
versus rural exposure, unemployment, weather and seasonality.
Collision claims are the most frequent kind of claims insurers re- Colorado Washington Oregon
ceive. Collision coverage insures against physical damage to a driv- Vote November 2012 November 2012 November 2014
ers vehicle in a crash with an object or other vehicle, generally when Retail sales January 2014 July 2014 October 2015
the driver is at fault. Collision claim frequency is the number of colli-
sion claims divided by the number of insured vehicle years (one vehi-
cle insured for one year or two vehicles insured for six months each). U.S. marijuana laws
The combined-state analysis shows that the first three states to le- States with some form of legalized marijuana use as of June 2017
galize recreational marijuana have experienced more crashes, says
Matt Moore, senior vice president of HLDI. The individual state WA VT NH ME
analyses suggest that the size of the effect varies by state. MT ND MN
Colorado saw the biggest estimated increase in claim fre- OR
ID SD WI NY MA
quency compared with its control states. After retail marijuana WY MI RI
PA
sales began in Colorado, the increase in collision claim frequen- NV
NE IA IL IN OH CT
cy was 14 percent higher than in nearby Nebraska, Utah and UT WV VA NJ
CO
CA KS MO KY DE
Wyoming. Washingtons estimated increase in claim frequency NC
TN MD
was 6.2 percent higher than in Montana and Idaho, and Oregons AZ NM OK AR SC DC
estimated increase in claim frequency was 4.5 percent higher than MS AL GA
in Idaho, Montana and Nevada. LA
TX
The combined effect for the three states was smaller but still sig-
FL
nificant at 3 percent, Moore says. The combined analysis uses a
bigger control group and is a good representation of the effect of AK
marijuana legalization overall. The single-state analyses show how
the effect differs by state.
Each of the individual state analyses also showed that the estimat- HI
ed effect of legalizing recreational use of marijuana varies depending
on the comparison state examined. For example, results for Colo- all uses legal medical marijuana legal
rado vary from a 3 percent rise in claim frequency when compared limited medical marijuana legal enacted since November 2016

June 22, 2017 |3


Alcohol research is clear with Wyoming to a 21 percent increase when
When it comes to impaired driving, alco- compared with Utah.
hol remains the biggest threat. A third of HLDIs new analysis of real-world crashes
all drivers who die in crashes in the U.S. provides one look at the emerging picture of
have a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) what marijuanas legalization will mean for
of 0.08 percent or higher. That propor- highway safety as more states decriminalize
tion hasnt budged since 1994. Nearly its use. In the coming years, more research
7,000 deaths could have been prevented from HLDI and others will help sharpen the
in 2015 if all drivers were below the legal focus. As HLDI continues to examine insur-
limit, IIHS estimates. ance claims in states that allow recreational
The battle against alcohol-impaired use of marijuana, IIHS has begun a large-
driving isnt won, says Adrian Lund, IIHS scale case-control study in Oregon to assess
president. States and localities should how legalized marijuana use
keep channeling resources into proven may be changing the risk of
countermeasures to deter impaired driv- crashes with injuries. Pre-
ing, such as sobriety checkpoints. liminary results are expect-
The Governors Highway Safety Associ- ed in 2020.
ation (GHSA) in April reported that drugs In addition to Colorado,
were present in 43 percent of the fatally- Oregon and Washington, five
injured drivers with known test results, other states and Washington, A new tourism industry has
appearing more frequently than alco- D.C., have legalized marijuana sprouted around legalized
hol. The finding was based on 2015 for all uses, and 21 states have use of marijuana. A trip to a
data from the Fatality Analysis Reporting comprehensive medical mari- dispensary has been cited by
System (FARS), a census of fatal crashes juana programs as of June. An some tourists as a top reason
on U.S. roads. The report, sponsored by additional 17 states permit lim- to visit Colorado.
the Foundation for Advancing Alcohol Re- ited access for medical use. Mar-
sponsibility a group funded by dis- ijuana is still an illegal controlled
tillers highlighted the top-line overall substance under federal law. reported. A year later, 4
drug-prevalence percentage, which in- percent of tourists surveyed
cluded marijuana but also amphetamines The business of pot cited that reason. The nov-
and other drugs. Marijuana in some Marijuana is a booming busi- elty of legalized marijuana
form accounted for about 36 percent of ness in states where its use is may have drawn younger adult travelers
the identified drugs, while 37 percent of legal. Retail sales of recreational marijuana in 2015, but visitor demographics returned
drivers had a positive BAC test. Some in the U.S. hit $1.8 billion in 2016, led by to a more traditional pattern in 2016, the
journalists interpreted the findings as im- Colorado and Washington, and are expect- tourism office said.
plying that drugs are now a bigger prob- ed to grow to $2.6 billion to $2.9 billion in
lem than alcohol on U.S. roads. 2017, Marijuana Business Daily reports in Mixed research on risk
Among all drugs, alcohol is still the its 2017 Marijuana Business Factbook. Col- As marijuana has won at the ballot box,
biggest contributor to fatal crashes, Lund orado has reaped a nearly fivefold increase public health officials, safety advocates
says. He cautions that FARS data arent in tax revenue from retail sales of recre- and citizens have questioned the negative
a reliable indicator of the overall pres- ational marijuana since January 2014, an impact legalization might have on the road
ence of drugs other than alcohol among analysis of Colorado Department of Rev- if stoned drivers were at the wheel. A 2016
drivers or of drivers level of impairment. enue data indicates. IIHS survey found that drivers in Colorado,
He also warns against conflating the in- Tourism is just one driver of state econ- Oregon and Washington were more likely
creased prevalence of drivers testing pos- omies, and for pot-friendly locales, access to view marijuana as a highway safety prob-
itive for marijuana or drivers self-reporting to legalized marijuana is promoted as an- lem than drivers in states without legalized
marijuana use with the recent rise in fatal other reason to visit. A Colorado marijua- use (see Status Report, Dec. 8, 2016).
crashes in the U.S., which is largely due to na tourism map from Kush Tourism, for Worry that legalized marijuana is in-
an improved economy (see Status Report, instance, touts the states allure as a desti- creasing crash rates isnt misplaced, says
Dec. 10, 2015, at iihs.org). nation for breathtaking mountain views, David Zuby, IIHS executive vice president
GHSA noted that drugged driving is unparalleled outdoor recreation, and now and chief research officer. HLDIs find-
more complicated than drunk driving high-quality legal cannabis! ings on the early experience of Colorado,
and called on states to increase training In 2015, 7 percent of tourists older than Oregon and Washington should give other
for law enforcement officers to help them age 25 who visited Colorado cited a mar- states eyeing legalization pause.
identify and arrest drivers under the in- ijuana dispensary as a top reason for Consuming THC just prior to driving has
fluence of drugs. n their trip, the Colorado Tourism Office been shown to increase reaction time and

4 | Status Report Vol. 52, No.4


by THC or that they were at-fault for the
crash and that the FARS data used in the
study are very limited with respect to toxi-
cology results related to marijuana.
A Pacific Institute for Research and Eval-
uation (PIRE) study, published last year and
sponsored by NHTSA and partially funded
by IIHS, collected roadside data from driv-
ers in three waves: before legal sales began,
about six months afterward and again a year
later. The researchers found that more driv-
ers were THC-positive after one year of retail
sales than just before sales began in the state.
Of the nearly 2,400 participants who pro-
vided oral fluid or blood samples, 15 per-
cent of drivers were THC-positive in Wave
1, 19 percent were THC-positive in Wave
2 and 21 percent were positive in Wave 3.
However, the differences werent statistically
significant. Separating the results by time
of day, the researchers found a statistically
significant increase in the daytime prev-
alence of THC-positive drivers between
waves. The prevalence increased from 7.8
percent of daytime drivers in Wave 1 to 18
percent in Wave 2 and 19 percent in Wave 3.
The prevalence also increased among night-
impair distance estimation and lane tracking marijuana may have positive blood tests for time drivers with each successive wave, but
in both simulator and on-road studies. THC, THC days to weeks after using the drug. the increases werent statistically significant.
or tetrahydrocannabinol, is the psychoactive The study didnt address whether an in-
substance in marijuana. A recent study con- Marijuana-positive drivers creased prevalence of THC-positive driv-
ducted using the National Advanced Driving About 1 in 5 weekend nighttime drivers ers is related to greater impairment among
Simulator found that drivers under the in- tested positive for at least one legal or ille- drivers or greater crash risk, the PIRE re-
fluence of marijuana had trouble maintain- gal drug in the 2013-14 National Roadside searchers cautioned.
ing constant lane position, but they tended Survey of Alcohol and Drug Use by Drivers A NHTSA-sponsored case-control study
to drive more slowly and with more headway conducted by the National Highway Traffic by PIRE examined the crash risk associated
than drivers not under the influence. Safety Administration (NHTSA) (see Status with driver drug use and found that driv-
Due to a combination of factors, mar- Report, May 12, 2015). Marijuana was much ers who tested positive for marijuana were
ijuanas role in crashes is hazier than the more prevalent than in a prior roadside overrepresented in the crash-involved pop-
data on alcohol. Many states dont include survey. Nearly 13 percent of weekend night- ulation (see Status Report, May 12, 2015).
consistent information on driver drug use time drivers tested positive for marijuana When the researchers controlled for driver
in crash reports that the Fatality Analy- use, compared with 8.6 percent in 2007. demographics and alcohol use, however,
sis Reporting System (FARS) database ag- A handful of studies have examined the they found no link between marijuana use
gregates, and policies and procedures for prevalence of marijuana among crash-in- and driver crash risk. Published in 2016,
drug testing are inconsistent. More driv- volved drivers in Washington since legaliza- the study included 2011-12 data on drivers
ers in crashes are tested for alcohol than for tion. An AAA Foundation study published involved in police-reported crashes in Vir-
drugs. When drivers are tested, other drugs in 2016 estimated that the prevalence of ginia Beach, Virginia, where it is illegal to
are often found in combination with alco- drivers in fatal crashes with detectable THC use marijuana.
hol, which makes it difficult to isolate their in their blood roughly doubled from 8.3 A 2016 study by researchers at Columbia
separate effects. percent in 2013 to 17 percent in 2014. University examined traffic fatalities in 19
What is more, unlike alcohol, experts The authors note that it isnt clear wheth- states before and after enacting medical mar-
dont agree on how much marijuana must er the upward trend was due to legalization ijuana laws. Although on average there was
be consumed for a driver to be impaired. A or other factors. They caution that results an 11 percent reduction in fatality rates, the
positive test for THC and its active metab- of this study do not indicate that drivers results varied across states. Seven states saw
olite doesnt mean the driver was impaired with detectable THC in their blood at the a reduction in fatalities, while two had an in-
at the time of the crash. Habitual users of time of the crash were necessarily impaired crease, and the other 10 didnt change. n

June 22, 2017 |5


Lane maintenance systems still a turnoff
for many drivers, new observations show
A
mong vehicles with crash avoidance effectiveness is being limited by low use rates. systems, and the operating status of those
features, lane maintenance systems Many drivers shut off lane maintenance sys- systems was observed, too.
are turned off nearly half the time, a tems because they find them annoying. Of the 983 vehicles observed, 51 percent
new IIHS survey shows. IIHS first looked at the operating status of had their lane maintenance systems turned
The study confirms previous findings that crash avoidance features in an earlier study on. Among other types of crash avoidance
lane departure warning and lane-keeping of Honda vehicles brought into dealerships systems, use rates were 90 percent or higher.
support systems are one of the less popular for service. The researchers found that only Results varied for lane maintenance fea-
types of crash avoidance technology. How- one-third of vehicles had lane departure tures, depending on the characteristics of
ever, it also suggests ways of designing sys- warning turned on, while all but one vehi- the system. Warning systems were more
tems to make them more likely to be used. cle had forward collision warning turned on likely to be turned on if they had tactile
Technology that helps drivers keep their (see Status Report, Jan. 28, 2016). warnings (54 percent) instead of auditory
vehicles within lane markings could poten- The new study also observed vehicles that warnings (46 percent). Lane departure pre-
tially have a substantial effect on fatalities. were brought in for service but this time in- vention systems, which guide the vehicle
An earlier IIHS study estimated that lane cluded models from nine manufacturers. back into the lane when it begins to drift,
departure warning could be relevant to 23 All the vehicles had some kind of lane also were more likely to be turned on than
percent of fatal crashes (see Status Report, maintenance system, a category that in- lane departure warning systems.
May 20, 2010, at iihs.org). cludes systems that issue warnings, systems Depending on the way you drive, lane
Unlike front crash prevention, lane main- that actively nudge a departing vehicle back departure alerts can go off fairly frequently
tenance systems havent been shown to into the lane with automatic steering or in the course of regular driving even when
reduce insurance claims. One reason could braking to prevent departures, and systems there is no imminent danger, says Ian
be that claims are dominated by less seri- that do both. It also includes systems that Reagan, an IIHS senior research scientist
ous crashes that cant be distinguished from provide continuous steering input to keep and the studys lead author. Systems that
those expected to be affected by lane de- vehicles in the lane. In all cases, the systems beep seem to annoy people more than sys-
parture systems. A forthcoming IIHS study maintained the on/off status from the pre- tems that warn the driver with vibrations of
using police-reported data finds lane main- vious trip, rather than defaulting back to on the seat or steering wheel.
tenance systems are preventing more severe or off. Some of the vehicles also had front Another important factor is how easy it
lane-drift crashes. It is also possible that crash prevention or other crash avoidance is to turn off the system. Unlike front crash

Tesla Model S doesnt follow the pack


on losses for electric vehicles or luxury cars
W
hen it comes to insurance losses, property damage liability coverages and ad- same models. Nissan doesnt sell a gasoline-
the Tesla Model S is an outlier. justed claim frequencies for mileage, based powered Leaf, so HLDI compared its losses
The luxury sedan has higher claim on data provided by CARFAX. against the similar Nissan Versa hatchback.
frequencies and is costlier to fix than gaso- Collision coverage insures against phys- Since Tesla only makes electric vehicles,
line-powered large luxury cars, and it ac- ical damage to a vehicle in a crash if the HLDI compared the Model S against losses
cumulates more miles on average per day driver is at fault. Property damage liability for conventional large luxury cars.
than other battery-powered vehicles, a new coverage insures against physical damage Under collision and property damage li-
HLDI report shows. that at-fault drivers cause to other peoples ability coverages, the seven electric vehicles
The Model S is among the nine vehicles vehicles and property in crashes. with exact conventional counterparts had
HLDI studied in its latest analysis of in- HLDI compared the BMW 1 Series Acti- lower claim frequencies and higher claim
surance losses for all-electric models. An- veE, Chevrolet Spark EV, Fiat 500 Electric, severities than their comparison vehicles.
alysts compared the loss experience of the Ford Focus electric, Smart ForTwo Elec- When analysts controlled for mileage in
Model S, the Nissan Leaf and seven other tric Drive two-door, Smart ForTwo Elec- the claim frequency analysis, the differ-
electric vehicles with losses for similar tric Drive convertible and Toyota RAV4 ences in the frequency benefits declined
conventional vehicles under collision and EV with gasoline-powered versions of the but were still significant. The Leaf largely

6 | Status Report Vol. 52, No.4


One active lane-keeping system from Volvo
had a much higher than average observed
use rate.

prevention, most of the lane maintenance Reluctance to use lane maintenance sys- lane departure alerts or retake control after
systems studied could be deactivated with tems is only one possible factor influencing an active system brings the vehicle back to
the push of a button. The Volvo XC90s active the effectiveness of these systems. Another the lane (see Status Report, Sept. 1, 2016).
lane-keeping system had a much higher IIHS study found that incapacitation plays a For a copy of Crash avoidance and
than average observed use rate of 86 percent. role in one-third of lane-drift crashes. The driver assistance technologies are they
To turn the system off, drivers must navigate finding raised questions about whether driv- used? by I.J. Reagan et al., email publica-
to a menu and go through several steps. ers would be able to adequately respond to tions@iihs.org. n

followed the same pattern but had lower other large luxury cars, HLDI found. The Estimated collision losses
claim severities compared with the Versa. other electric vehicles in the study logged Electric vs. conventional counterparts
In comparison, the Model S had higher 11-12 fewer miles per day than their con-
claim frequencies, higher claim severities ventional counterparts. 120% 7 electric models
and higher overall losses than other large Higher claim severities relate to how Nissan Leaf
luxury cars. Under collision coverage, for pricey it is to repair collision damage rel- 80% Tesla Model S
example, analysts estimated that the Model ative to average estimates. Electric vehicles
Ss mileage-adjusted claim frequency was 37 in general are more expensive than their 40%
percent higher than the comparison group, gasoline-powered cousins. The average
claim severity was 64 percent higher, and base price of an electric vehicle in HLDIs 0%
overall losses were 124 percent higher. analysis is about 79 percent higher than it is
Electric vehicles as a class arent known for a conventional counterpart. The Leaf s -40%
claim claim overall
for their speed, but thats not the case with base price, for example, is 117 percent frequency severity losses
the Model S. Tesla calls it the quickest pro- higher than the Versa, while the Model Ss
duction car in the world in promotion- base price is 33 percent higher than that of The Model S had higher collision claim
al literature. Car enthusiast reviews of the a conventional large luxury car. frequencies, severities and overall losses
Model S seldom fail to mention how fast it For a copy of HLDI Bulletin Vol. 33, No. than other large luxury cars. The Nissan
accelerates from 0 to 60 mph. 4 Insurance losses comparison of elec- Leafs losses were lower than the gasoline-
Teslas also are on the road more than tric vehicles and their conventional coun- powered Versa. The 7 electric-series mod-
comparable large luxury cars. On average, terparts while adjusting for mileage, email els had lower claim frequencies but higher
Teslas travel three more miles per day than publications@iihs.org. n severities than conventional cars.

June 22, 2017 |7


Insurance Institute for Highway Safety
Highway Loss Data Institute

Status Report
Legalizing recreational use of marijuana IIHS is an independent, nonprofit scientific and educational organization dedicated to reducing the losses deaths, injuries and
property damage from motor vehicle crashes.
is linked to increase in crashes42
HLDI shares and supports this mission through scientific studies of insurance data representing the human and economic losses
Lane maintenance systems are still resulting from the ownership and operation of different types of vehicles and by publishing insurance loss results by vehicle make
unpopular with vehicle owners46 and model.

Tesla Model S has higher losses than other Both organizations are wholly supported by the following auto insurers and funding associations:
electric vehicles or luxury cars46
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Vol. 52, No. 4
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