Part I

I History

Agresti & Finlay (1997) define statistics as a method in which it is developed for interpreting and drawing
conclusions from collected data. It involves the collection, processing, interpreting, and presentation of
data, thus require a detailed planning. It is an essential subject that help to answer questions such as the
amount of data need to be collected the ways data will be organized and summarized and analysis as well
as drawing conclusions from the data collected.

Probability on the other hand is a random process that lies behind data or outcome. It arises from
the latin word Probabilis which mean opinion to mean plausible or generally approved. The two studies
of probability include likelihood of hypothesis given the evidence for them and the behavioral stochastic
processes such as the rolling of dice or flipping of coins. In early time, probability was also known as
chance or the law of evidence. Even though probability and statistics are two mathematical field that are
distant, statistical analysis often uses probability distributions and are often studied together (Kerns 2011).

Historically, the ancient Greeks (the Athenians) have utilized the knowledge of statistics. Scaling
the wall of Platea, Thucydides (1985) recorded that the soldiers had calculated the height of the wall by
repeated counting of the section of unplaster wall. This enabled them to identify the height of the wall,
which is known as mode in modern times. Combined the value with probable counting, the soldier were
able to construct ladders high enough to scale the wall. Probability was also shown in an Indian epic-the
Mahabharata where King Rtuparna was shown to estimate the number of fruits on a large tree to regain
his kingdom back. He did that by multiplying the total fruit in one branch and multiplied it with the total
branch of the tree. His answer was a close estimate. Thus, showing such analytical calculation existed in
ancient time.

However, writings of statistic do not appear until the 9th century in Baghdad. The first Arabic
philosopher by the name of Al-Kindi (Abu Yusof Yaqub ibn Ishaq) was an all-rounder philosopher in the
field of medicine, mathematics, music as well as the study of Quranic verses (al-kalm). His statistical
analysis was focused solely on breaking of codes using frequency analysis. His findings give rise to
variance and thus modern statistics. Cardano on the other hand noticed probability when 3 dice were
thrown He noticed and demonstrated the efficacy in defining odds as the ratio of favourable to
unfavourable outcomes can be defined in probable manner. For example, when he threw the 3 dice both
number 9 and 10 have the same number of ways, however, due to the preference of number 10 the
probability of obtaining 10 is higher than 9
 Statistical analysis that combine both the application of statistics and probability became a main
driving force in scientific studies. In 1713 James Bernoulli proved the frequency method and classical
method are consistent to one another. Throughout 18th century statistical analysis blossomed in
mathematical theory and biological theory that dwell in many arears. Francis Galton was one of the
principal founders in statistical theory where his contribution had led to the introduction of standard
deviation regression and correlation. His concepts work well with the study of population density where
characteristics such as weight and height create a normal curve distribution.

ii Variance standard deviation and range

In statistics a dispersion is the spreading or variability of a set of data where a large data value give a
widely scattered dispersion and small items give a tightly clustered set dispersion. This mean we are able
to study the variation around the average and its range. This allow scientist to measure errors as well as an
important measure in Fluctuation theory that can help explain physical phenomenon.

a) Variance

Variance is the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean. Informally it is
known as the measurement of the spread between the numbers in a data set. It is calculated by taking the
differences between each number in the set and the mean squaring the differences and dividing it with the
sum of the squares by the number of values in the set

where
X is the individual data point
is the mean of data points
N total number of data points

b)Standard deviation

Standard deviation is a measure of dispersion of a set of data from its mean where it is calculated as the
square root of the variance. This data points are further from the mean the higher the deviation within data
set. It is commonly used to measure the level of confidence in statistical conclusions where margin of
error of the estimate or the standard error of the mean can be found. There are different variation of
formula to find standard deviation and are dependent on the type of data sample as well as the approach
of the studies. However for population size standard deviation are simply calculated as

c) Range

Range is the difference between the two extreme in data set i.e. the largest and smallest values, however,
in statistical dispersion it is the smallest interval within it. It is very useful in representing dispersion in
small data sets. Similar to standard deviation range have variety of different formulae that can be used and
are dependent on the type of data as well as the approach that are being used. Range can be obtained by
drawing an ogive or using a simple formulae where

Interquartile range= Q3 Q1
REFERENCE

Agresti, A. & Finlay, B. Statistical methods for the social scieces, 3rd edition, Prentice Hall,

1997.

Gorrochum P Some laws and problems in classical probability and how Cardano anticipated

them Chance magazine 2012

Ibrahim, A. Al Kadi The origins of cryptology: The Arab contributions Cryptologia.1992.

Isolato, J. Basics of statistics.

Kerns, G.J. Introduction to probability and statistics using R. 2011.

Thucydides. History of the Peloponnesian War. 1985.