Daily Breakfast Spread, 2 Aug 2010

Daily Breakfast Spread

DBS Group Research 2 Aug 2010

Monday’s The Week Ahead

Greater China, Korea
• KR: The Korean economy has maintained solid growth thanks to the strength in
export and manufacturing sectors. July exports (released over the weekend) rose
29.6% YoY, only slightly lower than 30.1% in June and beating market consensus of
27.4%. Business sentiment in the manufacturing industry has continued to edge
upward in the expansionary territory, improving to 109 (sa) in August from 108 in
the previous month. Industrial production (released last Friday) also increased a
stronger-than-expected 1.4% MoM sa in June on top of the 2.7% gains in May, and
equipment investment jumped 8.6% MoM sa in June.
On the price front, July CPI inflation (out this morning) stayed stable at 2.6% YoY
(2.6% in June). Imported inflation moderated thanks to the stabilization in crude oil
prices and the Korean won last month. That said, we still expect inflation to rise to
3% before the year-end in accordance with solid economic growth and the
emergence of a positive output gap, which is likely to prompt the Bank of Korea to
continue normalizing interest rates in the remainder of 2010. Following the BOK’s
first rate hike of 25bps in July, we expect another 25bps hike in September and a
total of 50bps hikes in 4Q10.
• TW: July inflation (due Thursday) is likely to stay elevated above 1% YoY (DBSf
1.2%). Although the festive effects (the Dragon Boat Festival fell in June) subsided
in July, food prices should have risen due to heavy rains. Nevertheless, the festive
and weather factors are temporary. The demand-side price pressures are expected to
remain moderate amid a relatively high unemployment rate, and the pass-through
on core inflation should be constrained.
We believe inflation is not a threat in Taiwan. However, interest rates are far below
neutral (O/N interbank rate: 0.2%) and the central bank should continue to
US Fed expectations normalize monetary policy. After the CBC started the rate normalization cycle in
June (a 12.5bps hike), we expect another 12.5bps hike in the benchmark discount
Implied fed funds rate
rate in September and 25bps hikes in 4Q.
Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
Market
Current 0.19 0.19 0.23
1wk ago 0.19 0.19 0.25 Southeast Asia, India
DBS 0.25 0.25 0.50
Source: Bloomberg fed fund
• ID: June trade and July inflation are on tap today, followed by BI meeting on
futures Wednesday. June exports and imports are expected to grow 34% YoY (down from
36.0% in May) and 42% respectively (up from 31.6% in May). The sequential trend
Notes: Given a FF target rate of
0.25%, an implied FF rate of
in exports is expected to remain flat, in line with slower growth in global demand
0.30 is interpreted roughly as and the moderation in commodity prices. The MoM growth in imports is expected
the market pricing in a 20% to rebound in June following an abrupt decline in May, affirming that the strength
chance of a Fed hike to 0.50% in domestic consumption and investment demand has remained intact. Trade
from 0.25% (30 is 1/5th of the balance is likely to register a surplus of USD 1.3bn in June, sliding from USD 2.5bn in
distance to 50 from 25). DBS
expectations are presented in the previous month. Note that foreign reserves increased only USD 1.7bn in June,
discrete blocks of 25bps, i.e., the despite sizeable foreign inflows into government bond market (USD 2.1bn) and the
Fed moves or it does not. See stock market (USD 0.5bn).
also “Policy rate forecasts”
below.
On the price front, it is widely known that CPI inflation will rise significantly in July.
We forecast 5.6% YoY (up from 5.0% in June) and market consensus expects an
even higher 5.8%. The authorities implemented a 10% hike in electricity prices last
month, a step toward reducing energy subsidies and strengthening fiscal position,
which will however boost inflation unavoidably. Meanwhile, food prices should
have risen further in July amid the rainy weather. We are also wary of the risks of
increased pass-through to core inflation and inflation expectations.

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Daily Breakfast Spread, 2 Aug 2010

That said, the market unanimously expects Bank Indonesia to keep the overnight
reference rate unchanged at 6.5% this week, as inflation remains inside BI target of
4-6% at the current juncture. During the last policy review in July, BI shifted
towards a hawkish stance, stating that inflationary pressures are rising and the
central bank “will make necessary adjustments to monetary policy to ensure that
inflation will stay inside target”. It is important to watch whether BI will maintain
the hawkish rhetoric in the policy statement released this Wednesday, providing
clearer signals about the timing of the first rate hike.
• MY: Trade data for June will be the key thing to watch for this week and the
headline numbers due this Tuesday are expected to report a healthy 18.4% YoY rise
in exports and 25.3% increase in imports. That should bring overall trade balance
to MYR 8.3bn for the month. The story behind this set of trade data can be viewed
from two separate perspectives. Firstly, the low base effect which has “amplified”
the year-on-year numbers thus far is gradually dissipating. As such, the trade
figures which are reported in comparison with last year’s numbers would likely see
a steady moderation going forward.
Moreover, though we expect domestic economic conditions in Malaysia to stay
buoyant in the
coming quarters,
some of the key
external factors are MY: A gradual slowdown on the external front
slowing. A sub-par % YoY MYR mn
recovery in the US, 50 Trade balance (RHS) 16000
slowdown in Export growth
Eurozone as well as 40 Import growth 14000
an Asia that is due for
30 12000
some soft landing are
strong reasons to 20
10000
suggest a weaker
10
external demand and 8000
export sales ahead. 0
Hence, a slight drop 6000
in export growth, -10
compared to 21.9% -20 4000
in the previous
month is only -30 2000
natural. And we can -40 0
expect such trend to
persist in the months Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10
ahead judging from
the outlook in the
external environment.
• TH: Inflation (July) is on tap today. We expect a 3.5% (YoY) print close to consensus
of 3.6% (YoY). This implies a sharp 3.7% (MoM, saar) rise in prices but this is mainly
due to a faster rise in food prices and a rise in retail fuel prices in the month. Core
inflation, which excludes raw food and energy, is expected to be subdued and
print 1.2% (YoY). If we do see a higher print for core inflation, it is likely to be due
to a rise in (cooked) food prices rather than underlying price pressure. Price
pressures normally intensify when capacity is tight and that is usually after growth
has been strong for a year or two. Therefore, as long as interest rate normalization
is pursued in a timely manner, inflation is unlikely to be a problem this year or even
next. Furthermore, the government has pushed out the withdrawal of remaining
transportation and electricity subsidies till end-December (from end-June) and
would likely push it out again until elections are held. As such, we expect overall
inflation to average below the central bank’s forecast of 3.2% in 2010 and core
inflation to average about 1% in 2010, in the lower end of the central bank’s target
range of 0.5%-3.0%. We will revise downward our inflation forecast of 3.5% for
2010 following today’s inflation data.
On the growth front, manufacturing sector accelerated more than expected in June
with production growing by over 5% (MoM, sa). We expect some payback in July
but not all of the rise should be erased. Therefore, with the strong June economic
data, there are upside risks to our 2010 GDP growth forecast of 7%.
On the whole, the implications for rates are that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) doesn’t
have to normalize interest rates in a big hurry but it has to steadily normalize
policy. The BoT has already raised rates by 25bps at the July meeting. We expect

2
Daily Breakfast Spread, 2 Aug 2010

another 25bps rate hike at the next two meetings in August and October which
would leave the policy rate at 2.00% by end-December.
• IN: It is a light data calendar for India this week with only merchandise trade (June)
on schedule. We expect a 1% (MoM, sa) rise in exports today which translates to
19% (YoY) growth. The big picture is exports are rising strongly similar to the rest
of Asia. Exports should grow about 15% - 20% in 2010 on the back of the global
recovery after having dropped by 4% in 2009. Imports are expected to rise by 7%
(MoM, sa), much faster than exports, on the back of normalization in oil import
volume and faster non-oil import growth. In on-year terms, this works to 23%
(YoY) growth. As a result, the trade balance is expected to record a larger trade
deficit of USD 10bn (sa) after two months of smaller deficits in April and May. In
unadjusted terms, the balance should however register a much higher USD 12bn
deficit. From a longer-term perspective, India’s trade deficit is definitely on the rise,
courtesy of the lagging growth in manufacturing.

G3
• US: By any measure, anyone worried about a slowdown in US demand should have
been tickled pink by the Q2 GDP figures released Friday. GDP (US supply, that is)
grew by 2.4% (QoQ, saar), a tad less than the 2.6% expected. So most were, in fact,
a tad more worried about weak growth / a double-dip than they were before the
release. They should not have been, because US demand growth soared to a 5.1%
rate! And because, if you’re worried about a slowdown, it’s demand (5.1% growth)
you want to be watching, not supply (2.4% growth). Where did it come from?
Everywhere. Consumption grew by 1.6% (surprisingly slow); business investment
grew by 17% (surprisingly fast). Housing construction jumped by 27% (so
surprisingly high it’s sure to be revised downward) and inventories added a
percentage point to the headline growth figure (most of which will be
redistributed to consumption when the revisions roll around). Even taking out
inventories, which pessimists do because inventories are a zero-sum game over a
few quarters’ time frame, the resulting ‘final’ demand growth came to 4.1%. That’s
a boatload more demand than anyone might have wished for prior to the release.
Add to that the fact that Q1 GDP growth was revised upward – by a full point – to
3.7% from 2.7% and the environment looks downright frothy. Alas, when
sentiment is sour, as it has been for the past 8 weeks, even good news gets ignored.
It sure is being ignored in this case. If sentiment were a little different (and the
unemployment rate were a little lower) last week’s figures would have brought a
big spike in interest rates.
It’s the unemployment rate – the focus of the week’s data – that continues to be a
problem. The difference between supply / GDP growth (2.4%) and demand growth
(5.1%) was a deteriorating trade balance. In other words, much US demand went
to purchases of foreign goods. Europe is (or should be) happy. Asia is (or should

US - initial jobless claims US - initial jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls

thousand claims/week, seas adj NFP, x1000/mth, Jan90-present
700 600
27Mar: 674 Jun10:
650 400 IJC: 475k
NFP(c): -125k
600 200 y = -2.5092x + 1020.7
550 0
23Jul:457
500 -200
450 -400
400 -600
350 -800
300
-1000
250 250 350 450 550 650 750
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 initial jobless claims, x1000/wk, 4wma

3
Daily Breakfast Spread, 2 Aug 2010

be) happy. But the US labor force is not. And it’s not going to get any joy this
week. The July labor reports are due Friday, with markets expecting nonfarm
payroll losses of 60k and a rise in the unemployment rate to 9.6% from 9.5% in
June. It’s hard to argue otherwise, with weekly jobless claims seemingly stuck at
460k for 6 months now (chart left). In fact, historically (chart right), that’s been
associated with payrolls of losses of 150k, not the 60k that consensus looks for this
Friday. The only good news in all this is that – as last Friday’s Q2 GDP report shows
ever so clearly – is that high unemployment does not mean demand growth
cannot be strong; fears of a ‘double-dip’ based around this idea are unfounded. It
may sound repetitive to those still unemployed, but what is needed is a little more
time and, probably, a little weaker dollar.
• EZ: The two data and event of note this week are retail sales (June) on Wednesday
and the ECB policy meeting on Thursday. Retail sales data have been an utter
disappointment in April and May. In contrast to PMI surveys that point to solid
expansion in both the second quarter and in July, retail sales suggest the consumer
buckled under pressure in the second quarter. Sales volume dropped by 0.9%
(MoM, sa) in April and then rose by a meagre 0.2% (MoM, sa) in May. Market
expectation is for a further drop in sales of 0.2% in June which will wipe out the
rise in May. If the data are in line with expectations, sales volume would have
dropped by 1.4% (QoQ, saar) in the second quarter. Such would imply a
contraction in broad consumer spending as in the GDP accounts of about 1%
(QoQ, saar). This means that even if the second quarter saw stellar expansion of 2%
(QoQ, saar) as the PMI surveys suggest, like the third quarter of 2009, the economy
would have just seen a temporary spurt of inventory-led expansion. In 3Q09, the
economy expanded by 1.5% (QoQ, saar) only to slip to 0.4% growth in 4Q09 and
0.8% in 1Q10. However, the seeds of deterioration were already visible in the
breakdown of the 3Q09 GDP data – consumer spending contracted by 0.8% in that
quarter even as inventories supported the ‘strong’ headline growth. It is important
to keep this in mind as we draw conclusions from the recent strength in PMI
surveys.
The ECB is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.00%. The policy
maker may elaborate its views on the rising headline CPI which printed 1.7% in
July. We think the rise owes mainly to higher food prices (tempting as it may be to
point to the euro weakness as the chief culprit). In fact, higher food prices may
eventually further depress core inflation. This is because in the backdrop of a weak
economy and stagnant labour market, higher prices may act as a constraint on
consumption. We think this is a concern ahead, especially in light of the weak retail
sales outcomes. As such, despite a strong first half, we retain our GDP forecast for
2010 at 0.6% for now.

Currencies
• USD: The US dollar remains under pressure from disappointing US data. Tonight’s
July ISM manufacturing will be important to see if the main engine, business
spending, will stay strong in 3Q10. Tomorrow’s pending home sales and this Friday’s
nonfarm payrolls will be closely watched on how much consumer spending will be
constrained by the weak housing sector and the sluggish job sector. With voters
opposed to more government spending, the pressure will be to prevent the trade
deficit from widening and trimming headline growth. As long as the US economy
is seen maintaining a lackluster recovery, and not tilting towards a double-dip
recession, the markets should continue to push for more depreciation in the US
dollar.
Asian currencies: Needless to say, the target for a weaker US dollar will be against
the Chinese yuan and emerging Asian currencies. USD/IDR posted its first daily close
below 9000 since July 2007. Similarly, USD/SGD fell 1.3573, its lowest level since July
2008, not far from its all-time low of 1.3438 seen in mid-July 2008. Against this
background, USD/MYR looks set to trade below its April low of 3.1725, and possibly
setting its sights on its post-Asian crisis low of 3.1280 seen in April 2008. USD/KRW
has taken out the 1200 support and is now targeting to test its June 21 low at 1168.
Even the Indian rupee is defying bears by trading higher last week, especially after
the central bank exhibited its commitment to rein in inflation. Therefore, the
Chinese yuan is likely to be firmer with its reference currencies above. With
economic fortunes of Australia and New Zealand tied to China and emerging Asia,
the AUD and NZD are likely to remain firm too.

4
Daily Breakfast Spread, 2 Aug 2010

Fixed income
• ID: With the crisis in Europe over and risk appetite returning, the near-term outlook
for Indonesia’s local currency government bonds has improved. However, yields are
unlikely to fall much, as the yield curve is already very flat and the probability of
policy interest rate hikes rising. A rate hike in the BI Reference Rate this week when
Bank Indonesia (BI) policy makers meet on Wednesday is not expected, but the rate
will likely be raised from the current level of 6.5% before year-end. There are good
reasons to be positive on the Indonesian economy and that means that interest
rates have to rise. Given how flat the bond curve currently is, sustained upward
pressure on local-currency government bond yields is likely once Bank Indonesia is
hiking rates. We expect yields on 2Y Indonesian government bonds to rise above
8% and those on 10Y bonds to rise above 9% later in 2H10 when the rate hike cycle
starts.
Foreign demand for Indonesia’s bonds has been increasing since May. Foreign
holdings of government bonds, which fell from the high of IDR 148 trillion in April
2010 to IDR 144 trillion in May now stand at a new record high of IDR 172 trillion.
Foreign investors will remain positive on Indonesia. Fundamentals are improving
and the country’s foreign-currency debt is on track to be upgrade to investment
grade within the next two years. The probability of a political crisis is low because
of policy credibility, policy sustainability and a meaningful reform process.
Moreover, budget deficit levels are low and there is confidence in the domestic
financial system.

Foreign Holdings of Indonesian LC Govt Bonds 2Y IDgov, 10Y IDgov & Spread
%pa bps
IDR trillion
22 400
180 2/10 Spread (RHS)
170 171.89 20 350
2Y IDgov Yield
160 18 10Y IDgov Yield 300
148.13
150
140 16 250
144.09
130 14 200
120 106.66
110 12 150
100 10 100
90
80 8 50
70 79.83
6 0
Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10

Looking back
• US mkts: US stocks on Friday closed little changed from Thursday’s close after data
showed weaker-than-expected 2Q GDP growth of 2.4% QoQ saar. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell 0.01% to 10465.94, while the Nasdaq closed 0.13% higher at
2254.70. Treasury yields fell 3bps to 0.55% in the 2Y sector and 8bps to 2.91% in the
10Y sector.

5
Daily Breakfast Spread, 2 Aug 2010

Economic calendar

Event Consensus Actual Previous

Aug 2 (Mon)
KR: inflation (Jul) 2.6% y/y 2.6% y/y 2.6% y/y
ID: inflation (Jul) 5.7% y/y 5.1% y/y
ID: trade bal (Jun) USD 1.9bn USD 2.5bn
--exports 35.5% y/y 36.0% y/y
--imports 33% y/y 31.6% y/y
TH: inflation (Jul) 3.6% y/y 3.3% y/y
--core inflation 1.3% y/y 1.1% y/y
IN: exports (Jun) 35.1% y/y
IN: imports (Jun) 38.5% y/y
US: ISM mfg (Jul) 54.7 56.2

Aug 3 (Tues)
CN: non-mfg PMI (Jul) 57.4
MY: trd bal MYR 8.0bn MYR 8.1bn
--exports 17.7% y/y 21.9% y/y
--imports 24.9% y/y 34.2% y/y
US: personal income (Jun) 0.2% m/m sa 0.4% m/m sa
US: personal spending (Jun) 0.1% m/m sa 0.2% m/m sa
US: PCE core (Jun) 0.2% m/m sa 0.2% m/m sa
1.3% y/y 1.3% y/y
US: factory orders (Jun) 0.0% m/m sa -1.4% m/m sa
US: pending home sales (Jun) 1.1% m/m sa -30.0% m/m sa

Aug 4 (Wed)
US: dom vehicle sales (Jul) 8.7mn sa 8.6mn sa
--total vehicle sales 11.6mn sa 11.1mn sa
CN: HSBC services PMI (Jul) 55.6
EZ: retail sales (Jun) -0.2% y/y 0.2% y/y
-0.2% m/m sa 0.10% m/m sa
US: ISM non-mfg 53.6 53.8

Aug 5 (Thur)
PH: inflation (Jul) 4.0% y/y 3.9% y/y
TW: inflation (Jul) 1.3% y/y 1.2% y/y
ID: GDP (2Q) 5.9% y/y 5.7% y/y

Aug 6 (Fri)
US: NFP chg (Jul) -70 K -125 K
US: unemploy. rate (Jul) 9.6% sa 9.5% sa

Central bank policy calendar

Policy
Date Country Rate Current Consensus DBS Actual
This week
04-Aug ID o/n reference rate 6.50% 6.50% 6.50%
05-Aug EZ refi rate 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%

Next week
08-Aug JP BoJ target rate 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
11-Aug US FOMC 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
12-Aug KR 7-day repo rate 2.25%
12-Aug EZ ECB bulletin (Aug)

Last week
27-Jul IN O/N repo 5.50% 5.75% 5.75% 5.75%
27-Jul IN O/N reverse repo 4.00% 4.25% 4.25% 4.50%
27-Jul IN cash reserve ratio 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00%

6
 Daily Breakfast Spread, 2 Aug 2010

GDP & inflation forecasts

GDP growth, % YoY CPI inflation, % YoY
2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f
US 2.1 0.4 -2.4 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.8 -0.3 2.0 2.1
Japan 2.4 -1.2 -5.1 2.8 1.8 0.1 1.4 -1.4 -0.4 0.5
Eurozone 2.7 0.5 -4.0 0.6 1.0 2.1 3.3 0.3 0.8 1.0
Indonesia 6.3 6.0 4.5 5.5 5.5 6.4 9.8 4.9 4.7 6.3
Malaysia 6.2 4.6 -1.7 8.0 5.5 2.0 5.4 0.6 1.8 2.4
Philippines 7.1 3.8 0.9 6.2 4.9 2.8 9.3 3.3 4.0 4.4
Singapore 8.2 1.4 -1.3 15.0 4.5 2.1 6.5 0.6 3.0 2.7
Thailand 4.9 2.5 -2.2 7.0 4.0 2.2 5.5 -0.8 3.5 2.2
Vietnam 8.4 6.2 5.3 6.5 6.9 8.3 23.1 7.0 9.0 8.0
China 13.0 9.6 8.7 11.0 10.0 4.8 5.9 -0.7 4.0 3.0
Hong Kong 6.4 2.1 -2.7 5.5 4.5 2.0 4.3 0.5 3.0 3.0
Taiwan 6.0 0.7 -1.9 7.5 3.8 1.8 3.5 -0.9 0.9 1.4
Korea 5.1 2.3 0.2 6.2 3.9 2.5 4.7 2.8 2.9 3.1
India* 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.8 8.5 4.7 8.4 3.7 8.0 5.3
* India data & forecasts refer to fiscal years beginning April; inflation is WPI
Source: CEIC and DBS Research

Policy & exchange rate forecasts

Policy interest rates, eop Exchange rates, eop

current 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 current 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11
US 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.50 … … … … …
Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 86.8 94 95 96 94
Eurozone 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.306 1.26 1.28 1.30 1.32
Indonesia 6.50 6.75 7.25 7.75 8.00 8,987 9,200 9,100 9,000 8,900
Malaysia 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.19 3.22 3.20 3.18 3.16
Philippines 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.75 5.00 45.7 45.7 45.5 45.3 45.1
Singapore n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.36 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35
Thailand 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.50 2.75 32.3 32.4 32.2 31.9 31.7
Vietnam^ 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 19,084 19,310 19,420 19,450 19,450
China* 5.31 5.58 5.85 6.12 6.39 6.78 6.74 6.69 6.64 6.60
Hong Kong n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 7.77 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75
Taiwan 1.38 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 32.0 31.9 31.7 31.5 31.3
Korea 2.25 2.50 3.00 3.50 3.75 1188 1160 1150 1140 1130
India 5.75 5.75 6.25 6.50 6.50 46.5 45.8 45.6 45.4 45.2
^ prime rate; * 1-yr lending rate

Market prices
Policy rate 10Y bond yield FX Equities
Current Current 1wk chg Current 1wk chg Index Current 1wk chg
(%) (%) (bps) (%) (%)
US 0.25 2.97 -2 81.6 -1.0 S&P 500 1,102 0.7
Japan 0.10 1.09 2 86.8 0.8 Topix 861 4.3
Eurozone 1.00 2.72 5 1.306 1.2 Eurostoxx 2,487 1.0
Indonesia 6.50 8.10 -16 8987 0.7 JCI 3,097 2.9
Malaysia 2.75 3.91 1 3.19 0.5 KLCI 1,358 1.7
Philippines 4.00 7.63 -2 45.7 1.7 PCI 3,429 0.4
Singapore Ccy policy 2.05 -15 1.364 0.5 FSSTI 2,998 1.4
Thailand 1.50 3.44 0 32.3 0.2 SET 855 2.8
China 5.31 … … 6.78 0.1 S'hai Comp 2,648 3.3
Hong Kong Ccy policy 2.24 2 7.77 0.0 HSI 21,094 2.4
Taiwan 1.38 1.38 -2 32.0 0.6 TWSE 7,799 1.7
Korea 2.25 4.84 -5 1188 1.4 Kospi 1,771 2.0
India 5.75 7.79 12 46.5 1.3 Sensex 17,992 -0.7
Source: Bloomberg

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 Daily Breakfast Spread, 2 Aug 2010

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8
 Daily Breakfast Spread, 2 Aug 2010

Recent research
ID: Upgrade expectations 29 Jul 10 TH: Higher rates despite politics 9 Apr 10

Asia: Votes of confidence 9 Jul 10 SG: A strong start to 2010 8 Apr 10

FX: The ascension of the CNY 9 Jul 10 Asia: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 8 Apr 10

CN: Rising wage concern 7 Jul 10 US: A top-down look at profits and payrolls 25 Mar 10

SG: A year of two halves 30 Jun 10 CN: Currency appreciation not a case 23 Mar 10
of now or never
Taiwan-China: A quick look at the ECFA 29 Jun 10
IN: RBI bites the bullet 22 Mar 10
TW & KR: Rates up 28 Jun 10
TW: A closer look at housing 18 Mar 10
IN: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 17 Jun 10
Asia: Are central banks behind the curve? 18 Mar 10
MY: Addressing the supply side challenges 17 Jun 10
MY: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 22 Mar 10
TH: Upgraded, against all odds 25 May 10
SG: The economics of the Foreign Worker 17 Mar 10
Asia: Negara vanguarda 20 May 10 Levy hike

TH: Instability and growth 19 May 10 KR: Current account outlook 1 Mar 10

ID & KR: External positions 14 May 10 India budget: A mixed bag 1 Mar 10

Asia: Who’s vulnerable to EU trouble? 13 May 10 ID: Notes from Jakarta 25 Feb 10

SG: Can Sing rates go to zero? 7 May 10 IN budget: Room for spending 24 Feb 10

EZ: It was never meant to be easy 30 Apr 10 US Fed: Wake up call 19 Feb 10

MY: Surprise awaits 30 Apr 10 SG: A strategic budget 17 Feb 10

IN policy: Inter-meeting hikes the new norm? 21 Apr 10 TW: Managing capital inflows 18 Jan 10

ID: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 20 Apr 10 ID: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 12 Jan 10

IN: Risk of more / earlier hikes 19 Apr 10 IN: RBI’s stance on capital controls 30 Nov 09

KR: Interest Rate Outlook & Strategy 16 Apr 10 CN: What policy options does it really have? 23 Nov 09

SG: More strength to SGD 15 Apr 10 TW: When will policy turn? 16 Nov 09

SG: Call a rose a rose 14 Apr 10 CN: No simple exit strategy 9 Nov 09

CN: Two growth myths with one stone 14 Apr 10 IN: Balance of payments outlook 6 Nov 09

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The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd (the “Company”). It is based on information obtained from sources believed to be
reliable, but the Company does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness, timeliness or
correctness for any particular purpose. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Any recommendation contained herein
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information herein is published for the information of addressees only and is not to be taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement
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Licence No.: MICA (P) 073/11/2009