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For example, a five-card hand is dealt from a deck of 52 cards. There are
2,598,960 different hands which might be dealt, and the dealing of any
one of them could be considered an elementary event.
To each elementary event is attached a "probability," which represents the universe (all possible wo
the relative likelihood of that occurrence. These probabilities are all
non-negative, and sum to 1. In the example, assuming a fair deal, it
makes sense to assign equal probabilities to all possible deals, so each
has a probability of 1/2,598,960.
.
an elementary event
e.g. [2,3,7,9,Q]
N.B. The "counts" on this and the following tabs are derived in
the "Counting" workbook.
e universe (all possible worlds)
Events
In our five-card example, let A represent the event "the hand contains at
least one ace." the event A
"A happens"
There are 886,656 hands containing at least one ace. Therefore,
the event A
"A happens"
"And"
Conjunctions
Let B represent the event "the hand contains no clubs." Since there are
575,757 hands containing no clubs,
The event "A happens, but B doesn't" is just AB c, which is sometimes AcBc "not A and not B
written as A-B.
For example, the first relationship can be used to find the probability that
the dealt hand will contain at least one ace (A) and at least one club (B c).
AB
B-A = BAc
"A and B"
"B and not A"
As well, by comparing this chart with the previous one, we see that
"Either A, or B, or both"
(AUB)c = AcBc . shorter: "A or B"
Pr(AUB) = 1 - Pr(AcBc) .
(AUB)c "neither A nor B
Disjunctions
AUB
"Either A, or B, or both"
Examining the diagram to the right, we see seven events, any one of
which might be of interest.
A
Browsing back over the last two tabs, we find four relationships tying
the probabilities of these events together:
Pr(AUB) = 1 - Pr(AcBc)
AcBc
Why are these relationships of interest? Because, given the
probabilities of any three of the seven events, these four relationships
together determine all the other probabilities!
If you're trying to compute the probability of an event, and can't see how
to do the computation directly, these four "rules" (really, three rules, since
the first two involve the same idea) can help you to reformulate your
problem in a manner which makes the calculations easier.
B
AB BAc
AUB
Example
Assume that you already know that 68% of all fatal automobile accidents
involve drunk drivers (and possibly speeding as well, but possibly not),
55% involve speeding (and possibly a drunk driver, but possibly not), and
43% involve drunk drivers and speeding.
Therefore, for example, the probability that the accident involved neither
a drunk driver nor speeding is 20%. And the probability that it involved
speeding, but no drunk driver, is only 12%.
Unfortunately, you've just spilled coffee on your notes! All you can still make
out is that 60% are male, 30% are female and want vegetarian meals, and
a total of 55% want meat platters (rather than vegetarian platters).
answers
What fraction of the group consists of men wanting meat platters? 45%
What fraction are women wanting meat platters? 10%
55%
43%
80% = 1 - Pr(AcBc)