Water Loss 2014, Vienna, Austria

30th March to 2nd April 2014

Practical applications of the latest

pressure:bursts prediction methods
Allan Lambert: Water Loss Research & Analysis Ltd, UK

Marco Fantozzi: Studio Marco Fantozzi, Gussago, Italy

Mark Shepherd:Joat Consulting Pty Ltd Kloof, South Africa

Julian Thornton, Thornton International, Sao Paulo, Brazil

 Audience Participation!
Do you believe that pressure management
has an important role in Asset Management?

influencing burst frequency on mains?

influencing burst frequency on services?

extending residual infrastructure life?

 Overview of Presentation
1. 2003 to 2007
simplified concept and prediction methods for
zones with high burst frequency on mains and/or
services

2. 2008 to 2012
improved Zone-specific prediction method for any
initial burst frequency for mains and/or service
http://www.leakssuite.com/outreach/free-papers-2011-13/

3. 2012 onwards
recent case studies
 John
May
Originator of
FAVAD concept
for pressure: leak
flow relationships
1994

But he also got us

thinking about
pressure:burst
frequency
relationships!
 UK evidence of pressure: bursts
relationships (1994-95)
John May 1994: 16 District Metered Areas Welsh Water 1995: 10 large regions
Mains burst frequencies/1000 conns/year Mains burst frequencies per 100 km per year

40
properties per year

10
Bursts per 1000

MAINS BURST FREQUENCY/100 Km

30
8 Mains burst
6 frequency
20
varies
4 with P3?
10
2
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60
AVERAGE PRESSURE (METRES)
80 100

Average Pressure (metres)

 The Pressure Management Team of the IWA
Water Loss Specialist Group
Set up in 2003, part of Water Loss Task Force
22 members from 10 countries
academics, consultants, practitioners, researchers.
Objectives:
identify successful and unsuccessful case studies,
analyze results and report conclusions
further research and testing of analysis methods
create an international data base of cases
papers, presentations and Workshops
 2004: Gold Coast, Burleigh Heads Pilot Scheme:
Gravity System, 3300 services, Inlet pressure reduced
by 30% (72 metres to 50 metres)

This is the pilot zone test data that really

raised international interest in this topic
 Number of Assessed Average % Average

Water 21, 2006

Pressure initial reduction %
Water Utility or Mains (M) or
Country Managed maximum in reduction
System Services (S)
Sectors in pressure maximum in new
study (metres) pressure breaks

Australia
Brisbane
Gold Coast
1
10
4
100
60-90
100
35%
50%
30%
28%
60%
70%
28%
M
M,S

S
pressure: breaks
Yarra Valley M
Bahamas New Providence
Bosnia
Herzegovin
Gracanica
7

3
39

50
34%

20%
40%
59%
72%
M
M,S

S
data analysis
58% M
Caesb 2 70 33%
24% S
Sabesp ROP 1 40 30% 38% M
80% M

Brazil
Sabesp MO

Sabesp MS
1

1
58

23
65%

30%
29%
64%
64%
M
S

S
10 countries,
112 systems
50% M
SANASA 1 50 70%
50% S
30% M
Sanepar 7 45 30%
70% S
23% M
Canada Halifax 1 56 18%
23% S
50% M
Armenia 25 100 33%
Colombia
Palmira
Bogot
5
2
80
55
75%
30%
50%
94%
31%
M,S
S

S
On average, 38%
45% M
Cyprus Lemesos

Bristol Water
7

21
52.5

62
32%

39%
40%
25%
45%
M
S

S
reduction in Pmax
England

Italy
United Utilities
Torino
Umbra
10
1
1
47.6
69
130
32%
10%
39%
72%
75%
45%
71%
M

M,S
M,S
S
produced 53%
USA American Water
Total number of systems
1
112
Maximum
199

199
36%

75%
50%

94%
M

All data
reduction in bursts
Minimum 23 10% 23% All data
Median 57 33.0% 50.0% All data
Average 71 38.0% 52.5% M&S together Source: Thornton & Lambert
Average 36.5% 48.8% Mains only
Average 37.1% 49.5% Services only
Water 21, Dec 2006
 WLTF pressure:bursts initial concepts
and prediction methods, in 2006/07
The straw that

ENT

N
ING
breaks the

SIO
VEM
FAILURE

RE

OAD
RATE COMBINATION OF FACTORS

RO
MO
ATU

OR
C L
CAUSES INCREASED

ND
PER

+C
camels back

FFI
OU
TEM

AGE
TRA
FAILURE RATE

GR
concept
Operating range PRESSURE

For Zones with a high

initial Burst frequency, the
average prediction is:
% reduction in burst
frequency
= 1.4 x % reduction in AZPmax
So a 30% reduction in maximum AZP pressure would produce a 42% reduction in bursts
http://173.254.28.127/~leakssui/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/2006_ThorntonLambert-Water-21-2006M.pdf
 Basic rules of analysis, 2006
Use Straw that breaks the camels back concept for non-specialists

Mains and services usually respond differently to changes in pressure,

so you must create both data sets and make separate predictions

Calculate annual average burst frequency

per 100 km/year for mains (exclude valve & hydrant repairs)
per 1000 conns/year for services (exclude stop tap/meter leaks)

Compare annual burst frequencies with those used in the UARL

(Unavoidable Annual Real Losses) formula; if they are high, then
% reduction in burst frequency = 1.4 x % reduction in AZPmax
where AZPmax = maximum pressure at Average Zone Point
Australian WSAA PPS-3 Asset Management Project 2008-11
Framework for targeting Leakage and Pressure Management

Conservation benefits: Demand management

Water Utility benefits: Asset Management, Opex/Capex reduction
Customer benefits: better managed delivery of service

Source: WSAA/ 3 phases over 3 years, 3 reports, 10 Guidelines,

WLR&A/Wide Bay Water 3 customised national software, 6 Case Studies
Field data: annual burst frequencies in 3 large
Zones before and after pressure management
Annual burst frequency in each Zone follows its
own individual path as AZPmax is reduced
90
80 Zone 1
70
Burst Frequency

60
Zone 2
50
40
30 Zone 3
20
10 BFnpd
Non- pressure dependent burst frequency
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Maximum pressure at Average Zone Point (metres)
 2012 pressure:bursts equation
Anytow n PMZs, Changes in Service Connection Burst
Frequency due to Pressure Managem ent
Before pressure
120
management
Service burst frequency/1000 service

Po, BFo
100

Burst frequency BF
80 Linear
conns/year

60 After pressure
management
40 P1, BF1 Burst frequency
component that
Power varies wholly or
20 partly with
pressure
0 BFnpd Px
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 NPD Burst frequency component that is
Pmax at AZP Point (metres)
independent of changes in pressure
UARL service conn burst frequency
Non Pressure-dependent burst frequency BFnpd if N2 = 3 Maximum AZP Pressure Pmax

Not two straight lines, but a power law

Burst frequency BF = BFnpd + A x PmaxN2 (where N2 ~ 3)
BFnpd = non pressure dependent burst frequency

Source: Thornton and Lambert, IWA Manila, 2012

 Quick estimate of BFnpd for mains, and services
Plot average annual burst frequency vs AZPmax, for Zones with >10 bursts
in initial period of 2 to 3 years (to reduce noise in burst frequency values)
Estimate BFnpd from lower boundary of data points

Mains Services
 Recent examples: comparisons of actual and predicted reduced

numbers of bursts in large PMZs, after BFnpd identified

Polyethylene services, Australia Cast iron mains, Australia
Anytow n PMZs, Com parison of Actual and Predicted
reductions in Service Connection Burst Num bers

250
y = 1.0175x
Predicted reduction in service connection

R2 = 0.9861
200

150
bursts/year

100

50

0
0 50 100 150 200 250
Actual reduction in service connection bursts/year
Prediction methods applied to Durban CBD mains
AC, plastic,
steel and CI
mains with
large seasonal
variations in
burst
frequency
Compare data
before and
after PM
Seasonal
burst
frequency
strongly
influenced by
Reproduced with permission of eThekwini Municipality pressure
Prediction methods applied to Durban CBD services
PE services
with large
seasonal
variations in
burst
frequency
Compare data
before and
after PM
Seasonal
burst
frequency
strongly
influenced by
pressure

Reproduced with permission of eThekwini Municipality

A UK Utility: analysis of 35 pressure management
schemes carried out 13 years ago

Zones were originally

selected to reduce leak
flow rates, no burst
reduction predictions
available

Retrospective analysis
shows that 75% of burst
reduction occurred in
only 10 of the 35 Zones

2012 prediction method

would have quickly
identified these 10
Zones
 UK: quick method to identify Zones with highest
potential for reduction in burst numbers
Method used for ranking of burst reduction potential of 1800 Zones, in a UK Utility*
Step 1: rank by number of pressure-dependent mains bursts
Step 2: assess BFnpd for mains; multiply by mains length in each Zone to
assess number of non-pressure-dependent bursts
Step 3: calculate number of pressure-dependent mains bursts, re-rank Zones
Assumed Non-pressure dependent burst frequency = 10 per 100 km/year = 0.10
 UK: quick method to identify Zones with highest
potential for reduction in burst numbers
Step 4: repeat Steps 1 to 3 for service pipe bursts

Assumed Non-pressure dependent burst frequency = 1.5 per 1000 conns/year = 0.0015
 UK: quick method to identify Zones with highest
potential for reduction in burst numbers
Step 5: for each Zone, add pressure dependent bursts BNpd for mains and
services, with weighting for relative repair costs, water saved etc
Step 6: then use revised BNpd ranking to prioritise Zones for detailed
investigations of pressure management options for burst reduction
 Implications
Opportunities for reducing bursts on mains and services
need separate predictions, and vary from Zone to Zone
and MUST use max. Average Zone Pressure for predictions
Simple 2006 prediction method (1.4 times) works OK for
average predictions in zones with high burst frequencies
2012 improved prediction method now successfully
tested and used in Australian, South African, UK
Small pressure reductions on large Zones can produce
bigger benefits than large reductions on small Zones.
Cost savings from deferral of mains and services
renewals are several times savings in burst repairs costs
Asset management benefits substantially exceed
traditional benefits of reduced leak flow rates alone
 Summary
Thank you for your interest and attention
This presentation, and other associated papers
and references, can be downloaded free from
www.leakssuite.com/outreach/free-papers-2014/

Also available on request through websites:

Guideline Note on how to define Average Zone
Points and calculate average system pressures
Free software AZP&NDFCalcs to record calculations
associated with definition of Average Zone Point

www.studiomarcofantozzi.it www.leakssuite.com