Hume Problem of Induction

The Principle of Induction or The Principle of the Uniformity of Nature:

[T]he future will be conformable to the past. (504)

The future will resemble the past. (505)

Humes model of the structure of causal reasoning:

i) The future will be conformable to the past.

ii) All previously observed A-type events have been followed by B-type
events.
iii) All A-type eventsin all places and at all timesare followed by B-
type events.
iv) There is an A-type event.
v) There will be a B-type event.

The Problem of Induction: The inference from (iv) to (v) becomes valid only if a
causal law, (iii), is added as a premise. The inference from (ii) to (iii) becomes valid
only if the Principle of Induction, (i), is added as a premise. However, the Principle
of Induction cannot be established through either demonstrative, i.e., deductive,
reasoning or moral, i.e., inductive, reasoning.

Deductive Reasoning: reasoning in which the premises of an argument render its

conclusion certain.

i) All humans are mortal.

ii) Socrates is human.
iii) Therefore, Socrates is mortal.

Inductive Reasoning: reasoning in which the premises of an argument render its

conclusion probable or likely.

i) Most Union College students are between the ages of 18 and 21.
ii) Sue is a Union College student.
iii) Therefore, Sue is (probably) between the ages of 18 and 21.

Humes argument for the conclusion that the Principle of Induction cannot be
rationally justified (504):

i) There are only two possible ways of establishing a proposition by

reasoning: demonstratively, by deductively valid reasoning, or inductively,
by inductively correct reasoning.
ii) The Principle of Induction cannot be established demonstratively, because
its denial does not involve a contradiction.
iii) The Principle of Induction cannot be established inductively, because all
inductive inferences are ultimately based on The Principle of Induction,
 thus rendering an inductive argument for The Principle of Induction
circular.
iv) Therefore, The Principle of Induction cannot be rationally established at
all. (Note: this is A3).

SectionV

Inductive inferences cannot be rationally justified (cf. Section IV), but they can be
psychologically explained.

The principle of custom or habit: after the constant conjunction of two objects,
heat and flame, for instance, weight and solidity, we are determined by custom
alone to expect the one from the appearance of the other. (507)

Humes naturalism: certain beliefsthat cannot be rationally justifiedare the

inevitable product of certain psychological principles of human nature.