Tennessee State Fairgrounds Study For Bonnaroo Site in Manchester

DRAFT COPY
For Discussion Purposes Only
Feasibility Study of a Potential New State Fairgrounds
INTRODUCTION
in Manchester, Tennessee
Feasibility Analysis of a Potential New State Fairgrounds in Manchester, Tennessee

1
December 16, 2016
Study Background & Purpose
DRAFT COPY
The analyze the market, financial and economic

feasibility of a new fairgrounds complex at the

Bonnaroo site in Manchester that would be a new
home to the Tennessee State Fair.
The study updates and builds on portions of

CSLs 2012/2013 feasibility study of a
redeveloped State Fairgrounds.
INTRODUCTION
This study was requested by the State of

Tennessee to investigate the feasibility of a

unique public/private partnership opportunity
involving a new Fairgrounds that would involve
and leverage Bonnaroo, its property,
management, marketing expertise and
association with Live Nation and AC
Entertainment.
2
Bonnaroo Music Festival
DRAFT COPY
Originally established by AC Entertainment in 2002.

Four-day event held annually in Manchester, TN starting
the second Thursday in June.

Live music from a variety of styles including indie rock,
classic rock, hip hop, jazz, pop, alternative and others.
Notable acts have included Elton John, Nine Inch Nails,
Paul McCartney, The Beach Boys, James Brown,
Metallica, Mumford and Sons, Red Hot Chili Peppers,
Willie Nelson, Jay Z, Bob Dylan and The Black Keys.
INTRODUCTION
Attendance has historically been between 70,000 and

100,000 for the event. However, 2016 attendance was
down over recent levels at approximately 45,000.
In 2016, Bonnaroo was acquired by Live Nation

Entertainment, one of the largest global entertainment
companies in the world with connections to some of the
most highly sought after musical and promoted acts.
Potential for Live Nation/AC Entertainment/Bonnaroo to
manage via contract a new State Fairgrounds located
adjacent to the current Bonnaroo site. An experienced
3 fairgrounds manager and facility team would be retained.
Study Components DRAFT COPY
1. Site visit, facility/community tours

2. Stakeholder & community outreach

3. Existing TN State Fairgrounds review
4. Manchester market conditions analysis
5. Competitive & comparable facilities
INTRODUCTION
6. In-person & telephone user surveys

7. Market supportable program
8. Event/utilization analysis
9. Financial operating estimates
10. Economic impacts
11. Cost/benefit conclusions
4
Fairgrounds Nashville DRAFT COPY
Current Home of TN State Fair
LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

9
1
2 3 10
7
8
16
4
5 1 Creative Arts Building

13 12 6 2 Annex Building
3 Exhibitor's Building
4 Banquet Building
5 Agriculture Building
6 Vaughn Building
11
7 Wilson Hall
8 Judging Arena
14
9 Sports Arena
10 Grandstand
11 Rabbit Barn
15
12 Shed 2
13 Shed 3
5 14 Shed 4
15 Shed 5
16 Pulling Shed
Historical Event Activity

600
529 528
500 22
30
48 427
48
Fair
400 36 385
57 16 363 366 Concert
Utilization Days
24
333 Fight/Wrestling
18
48 27 Other
32
300 25 48 Other Animal Event
227 64 56 48
182 Flea Market
45
48
28 40 Meeting/Banquet
200 28 Public/Consumer Show
158 Roller Derby
134 152
119 146
100
155 171
86 86 74 76 64
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
6
Note: Adjustments were made to 2009 through 2011 data reflecting utilization days within indoor event space usage only.
Source: CSL International, facility management, 2016.
Tennessee State Fair DRAFT COPY
Recent Financial Operating Results

2015 2014 2013 2012
Revenue
HISTORICAL OPERATIONS
Admission $444,395 $469,158 $440,615 $390,751
Commissions and Fees on Midway 314,876 329,222 329,364 361,100
Grants 154,550 13,925 13,400 88,975
Donations and Sponsorships 92,450 148,326 77,904 69,042
Vendor Space Rental 77,378 71,530 61,762 57,137
Parking Fees 63,754 67,764 66,918 0
Contributed Account and Legal Services 26,900 33,180 34,350 34,915
Exhibit Entry Fees 20,644 18,911 18,511 16,404
Other Income 12,416 11,133 10,535 5,336
Total $1,207,363 $1,163,149 $1,053,359 $1,023,660
Expenses
Fairgrounds Rental $180,416 $171,870 $175,882 $67,805
Advertising/Public Relations 199,288 232,852 203,249 189,495

Fair Entertainment 137,430 128,203 116,317 101,399
Premiums 120,502 115,949 104,744 91,309
Salaries 144,578 123,730 117,554 96,700
Contract Services 101,955 86,749 87,814 78,139
Exhibit Judging and Supplies 62,024 57,597 52,128 41,539
Other Fair Expenses 104,010 123,247 86,165 61,896
Management/General 128,663 105,773 102,613 94,379
In-kind Accounting/Legal 26,900 33,180 34,350 34,915
Total $1,205,766 $1,179,150 $1,080,816 $857,576
7 Net Operating Profit/(Deficit) $1,597 ($16,001) ($27,457) $166,084
Source: Tennessee State Fair, 2016

Key Demographic Metrics

State of

Demographic Variable 30-minute 60-minute 90-minute 180-minute 240-minute Tennessee U.S.
Population (2000) 734,150 1,408,305 2,132,536 8,183,251 15,271,553 5,689,283 281,421,906

Population (2010) 851,641 1,727,504 2,527,638 9,041,304 16,928,975 6,346,105 308,745,538
Population (2016 est.) 937,334 1,908,073 2,750,009 9,485,370 17,731,439 6,698,359 316,296,988
% Change (2000-2016) 27.7% 35.5% 29.0% 15.9% 16.1% 17.7% 12.4%
Population (2021 est.) 1,021,054 2,083,662 2,960,340 9,868,794 18,441,691 7,010,634 327,981,317
% Change (2016-2021) 8.9% 9.2% 7.6% 4.0% 4.0% 4.7% 3.7%
Avg. Household Inc. (2016 est.) $78,530 $74,639 $68,355 $62,142 $65,588 $63,685 $72,809
% Change (2016-2021) 9.2% 9.7% 10.0% 9.8% 9.7% 9.6% 15.3%
Median Age (2016, in years) 36.1 36.6 36.7 39.0 38.5 39.1 37.7
Businesses (2016 est.) 49,045 80,735 109,959 373,942 713,381 263,305 24,262,035
Employees (2016 est.) 763,080 1,112,858 1,425,755 4,768,198 9,119,533 3,430,812 141,523,742
Employee/Residential Population Ratio 0.81:1 0.58:1 0.52:1 0.5:1 0.51:1 0.51:1 0.45:1
8
Note: Drive times are based off of the intersection of Shedd Road and New Busy Branch Road in Manchester, Tennessee.
Source: ESRI, 2016
Proposed New State Fairgrounds DRAFT COPY
Location & Driving Distance to Regional Cities

Lebanon
Source: Google Maps, Esri, 2016

Manchester, Tennessee Bonnaroo Site

Proposed State
I-24 Fair Facilities
Camping/Parking
Bonnaroo Site
Main Stage
Secondary Stage
10
11
Source: Populous, 2016

Driving Distance to Regional Cities

Distance

from
Manchester Drive Market
City (in miles) Time Population
Nashville, TN 70 1:10 1,830,300

Chattanooga, TN 70 1:10 547,800
Huntsville, AL 75 1:30 444,800
Bowling Green, KY 130 2:15 168,400
Knoxville, TN 180 2:45 861,400
Birmingham, AL 190 2:45 1,145,600
Jackson, TN 190 2:50 129,700

Atlanta, GA 185 3:10 5,710,800
Louisville, KY 240 3:55 1,278,400
Memphis, TN 275 4:00 1,344,100
Lexington, KY 280 4:25 500,500
Cincinnati, OH 340 5:10 2,157,700
Indianpolis, IN 355 5:25 1,988,800
12 St. Louis, MO 375 5:30 2,811,600
Source: Google Maps, Esri, 2016

Key Demographic Metrics

State of

Demographic Variable 30-minute 60-minute 90-minute 180-minute 240-minute Tennessee U.S.
Population (2000) 76,594 504,034 1,971,609 7,163,005 15,907,469 5,689,283 281,421,906

Population (2010) 83,141 629,000 2,302,819 8,164,206 18,127,112 6,346,105 308,745,538
Population (2016 est.) 85,702 683,659 2,497,532 8,636,432 19,092,445 6,698,359 316,296,988
% Change (2000-2016) 11.9% 35.6% 26.7% 20.6% 20.0% 17.7% 12.4%
Population (2021 est.) 87,726 737,475 2,679,588 9,066,567 19,988,409 7,010,634 327,981,317
% Change (2016-2021) 2.4% 7.9% 7.3% 5.0% 4.7% 4.7% 3.7%
% Change (2016-2021) 10.5% 10.4% 10.0% 9.8% 9.8% 9.6% 15.3%
Median Age (2016, in years) 40.8 35.9 37.8 38.8 38.0 39.1 37.7
Businesses (2016 est.) 3,702 23,116 109,269 343,615 771,954 263,305 24,262,035
Employees (2016 est.) 39,900 1,469,593 1,469,593 4,155,550 9,548,740 3,430,812 141,523,742
Employee/Residential Population Ratio 0.47:1 0.4:1 0.4:1 0.48:1 0.5:1 0.51:1 0.45:1
13
Note: Drive times are based off of the intersection of Shedd Road and New Busy Branch Road in Manchester, Tennessee.
Source: ESRI, 2016
Manchester Area Hotels

Map
8 Key Hotel Rooms
11 1 Ambassador Inn 153

13 2 Scottish Inn 90
3 Miles 1 3 Red Roof Inn 81
4 Holiday Inn Express and Suites 80
5 Quality Inn 80
6 Comfort Suites 77
1 Mile 7 Sleep Inn and Suites 77
8 Hampton Inn and Suites 70
15 9 Rodeway Inn 65
10 Microtel Inn and Suites 62
11 Super 8 Motel 62
12 Regency Inn 52
13 Economy Inn 50
16 14 Motel 6 50
3 10 15 Greenleafe Inn 50
12 16 Royal Inn 35
9 6
4
Total Hotel Rooms in Manchester: 1,134
5 2
14 7 14
Source: Manchester Travel Guide, 2016; TripAdvisor, 2016

Manchester Area Restaurants

3 Miles
1 Mile
Denotes Restaurant
15
Source: Esri, 2016

Competitive Facilities DRAFT COPY

Competitive Facilities Map
COMPETITIVE FACILITIES 7
3
2
6
1 5
4
Key Facility City, State

1 Williamson County Ag Expo Park Franklin, TN
2 Tennessee ValleyFair at Chilhowee Knoxville, TN
3 Wilson County Fairgrounds Lebanon, TN
4 Agricenter International Memphis, TN
5 Tennessee Livestock Center Muffreesboro, TN
6 Tennessee Miller Coliseum Murfreesboro, TN
16
7 The Fairgrounds Nashville Nashville, TN
8 Calsonic Arena Shelbyville, TN

Competitive Facilities - Summary
COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Facility City, State

Ownership
Structure
Size
(in acres)
Total
Stalls
Permanent
Stalls
Portable
Stalls
RV
Hookups
Grandstand
Seating
Largest
Arena
Seating
Williamson County Ag Expo Park Franklin, TN County 110 194 194 0 85 0 4,180
Chilhowee Park Knoxville, TN City 81 15 15 0 50 4,500 1,000
Wilson County Fairgrounds Lebanon, TN County 110 200 200 0 921 0 3,100
Agricenter International Memphis, TN County 1,000 632 632 0 80 0 4,100
Tennessee Livestock Center Muffreesboro, TN University 16 214 214 0 25 0 4,550
Tennessee Miller Coliseum Murfreesboro, TN University 154 500 500 0 117 0 4,600
The Fairgrounds Nashville Nashville, TN Metro 117 0 0 0 20 21,000 2,500
Calsonic Arena (1) Shelbyville, TN - 105 1,500 1,500 0 294 28,000 4,469
Average 212 407 407 0 199 6,688 3,562

Median 110 207 207 0 83 0 4,140
17
(1) Outdoor seating at Celebration Stadium.
Source: Facility Management, 2016

Competitive Facilities - Summary
COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Largest

Contiguous
Total
Indoor
Event Enclosed Covered Outdoor Event Exhibit Event
Facility Buildings Arenas Arenas Arenas Barns Halls Space Space
Agricenter International 12 2 1 1 6 2 50,093 96,197

Williamson County Ag Expo Park 6 1 2 0 2 1 45,000 49,050
Wilson County Fairgrounds 12 0 1 1 3 7 45,000 68,570
Tennessee Miller Coliseum 8 1 1 1 5 0 45,000 46,800
Chilhowee Park 5 0 1 0 2 2 36,600 64,400
The Fairgrounds Nashville 16 2 0 1 6 7 28,800 113,000

Tennessee Livestock Center 7 2 0 1 2 2 14,300 14,300
Calsonic Arena 59 2 1 1 53 2 3,000 3,000
Average 16 1 1 1 10 3 33,474 56,915
Median 10 2 1 1 4 2 40,800 56,725
18

Size of Facilities Largest Indoor Arena
COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Facility City, State

Largest
Indoor Arena
Dimensions (ft.)
Largest
Indoor Arena
Sq. Ft.
Secondary
Arena
Dimensions (ft.)
Tertiary
Arena
Dimensions (ft.)
Tennessee Miller Coliseum Murfreesboro, TN 300x150 45,000 203x120 -

Williamson County Ag Expo Park Franklin, TN 300x150 45,000 190x110 200x100
Calsonic Arena Shelbyville, TN 300x150 45,000 250x125 300x150
Agricenter International Memphis, TN 250x125 31,250 100x100 200x100
Tennessee Livestock Center Muffreesboro, TN 230x100 23,000 160x75 200x100
Wilson County Fairgrounds Lebanon, TN - - 300x160 200x130
The Fairgrounds Nashville Nashville, TN - - 200x100 -
Chilhowee Park Knoxville, TN - - 150x71 -

Average 276x135 39,500 194x108 220x116
Median 300x150 45,000 195x105 200x100
Covered Arena
Outdoor Arena
19
Summary of Total Indoor Event Space

Largest Total
Largest Contiguous Indoor

COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Enclosed Indoor Arena Event Exhibit Event
Facility Arenas Sq. Ft. Halls Space Space
Agricenter International 2 31,250 2 50,093 96,197

Williamson County Ag Expo Park 1 45,000 1 45,000 49,050
Wilson County Fairgrounds 0 0 7 45,000 68,570
Tennessee Miller Coliseum 1 45,000 0 45,000 46,800
Chilhowee Park 0 0 2 36,600 64,400
The Fairgrounds Nashville 2 11,020 7 28,800 113,000

Tennessee Livestock Center 2 23,000 2 14,300 14,300
Calsonic Arena 2 45,000 2 3,000 3,000
Average 1 25,034 3 33,474 56,915
Median 2 27,125 2 40,800 56,725
20
Competitive Facilities Summary

Venue Competition for Competitive Advantage for
Market New Fairgrounds Complex New Fairgrounds Complex

COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Williamson County Ag Expo Park
Franklin, Tennessee
Good location, within 20 miles of Nashville Limited destination appeal of the market
Located on western border of TN

Agricenter International Large population base
Largely focused on agricultural research and
Memphis, Tennessee Event facilities for variety of event types/sizes
education
Wilson County Fairgrounds New expo facility

Limited destination appeal of the market
Lebanon, Tennessee Event facilities for variety of event types/sizes
Tennessee Miller Coliseum/ TN Livestock Ctr Good centralized location University facilities
Murfreesboro, Tennessee Large indoor arena, lots of stalls Relatively higher rental rates
Good centralized location

Calsonic Arena Arena does not have AC
Large indoor arena, lots of stalls and RV Hook-
Shelbyville, Tennessee Limited destination appeal of the market
ups
Chilhowee Park
Large population base Limited facilities; no true arena
Knoxville, Tennessee
21
Demographics Comparison
Competitive Markets Proposed Manchester Site Existing Nashville Site
% of Rank % of Rank
Low High Average Median Estimate Avg. (out of 8) Estimate Avg. (out of 8)
COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Population

30-Minute Drive 85,700 971,000 472,100 399,000 85,702 18% 7 963,295 204% 2
60-Minute Drive 683,700 1,942,300 1,378,600 1,527,600 683,659 50% 7 1,942,261 141% 1
90-Minute Drive 1,643,600 2,762,300 2,338,100 2,438,500 2,497,532 107% 2 2,762,311 118% 1
180-Minute Drive 5,102,200 9,510,600 7,817,300 7,917,200 8,636,432 110% 2 9,510,563 122% 1
240-Minute Drive 11,168,500 22,159,600 17,512,900 17,656,600 19,092,445 109% 3 17,767,699 101% 4
Average Household Income

30-Minute Drive $54,500 $104,300 $70,300 $66,900 $54,465 77% 8 $78,766 112% 2
60-Minute Drive $60,900 $76,100 $69,700 $71,100 $60,890 87% 8 $74,390 107% 2
90-Minute Drive $57,800 $72,700 $67,600 $68,900 $69,020 102% 4 $68,269 101% 6
180-Minute Drive $58,300 $66,300 $62,100 $62,100 $66,296 107% 1 $62,182 100% 4
240-Minute Drive $61,600 $67,900 $66,000 $66,600 $67,644 102% 2 $65,559 99% 6
Median Age
30-Minute Drive 33.7 39.0 37.2 37.4 40.8 110% 1 36.3 98% 6
60-Minute Drive 36.1 41.3 37.0 36.6 35.9 97% 7 36.5 99% 5
90-Minute Drive 36.2 41.7 37.7 37.2 37.8 100% 2 36.8 98% 6
180-Minute Drive 37.9 38.7 39.0 39.0 38.8 100% 6 39.0 100% 4
240-Minute Drive 37.9 38.7 38.3 38.2 38.0 99% 4 38.5 101% 3
Corporate Base
30-Minute Drive 3,700 39,000 21,500 18,500 3,702 17% 7 50,110 233% 1
60-Minute Drive 23,100 75,700 56,200 61,900 23,116 41% 7 81,187 144% 1
90-Minute Drive 63,600 109,300 95,300 100,900 109,269 115% 1 110,428 116% 1
22 180-Minute Drive 195,400 343,600 307,300 311,300 343,615 112% 1 375,099 122% 1
240-Minute Drive 446,000 897,000 704,800 713,600 771,954 110% 3 714,409 101% 4
Source: Esri, 2016


COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Market 30-minute 60-minute 90-minute 180-minute 240-minute

Nashville, TN - Existing Site 963,295 1,942,261 2,762,311 9,510,563 17,767,699
Lebanon, TN 277,904 1,728,340 2,616,656 8,652,347 17,036,919
Murfreesboro, TN 365,586 1,707,284 2,432,222 7,914,264 19,349,672
Franklin, TN 432,349 1,634,010 2,444,845 7,920,234 15,982,709
Memphis, TN 971,029 1,421,164 1,929,852 5,102,161 11,168,527
Knoxville, TN 583,713 1,092,063 1,643,631 7,751,618 22,159,613
Shelbyville, TN 97,037 820,365 2,377,407 7,050,483 17,545,542
Manchester, TN - Proposed Site 85,702 683,659 2,497,532 8,636,432 19,092,445
Average 454,603 1,400,538 2,240,769 7,398,518 17,207,164

Median 398,968 1,527,587 2,404,815 7,832,941 17,291,231
Manchester Rank (out of 8) 8 8 3 3 3
23
Note: Sorted by 60-minute drive time. Average and medians do not include Manchester or Nashville population data.
Source: Esri, 2016
2016 Fair Dates

Williamson County Fair Franklin, TN Dyer County Fair Dyersburg, TN
Wilson County Fair Lebanon, TN Tennessee Valley Fair Knoxville, TN
Appalachian Fair Gray, TN Tennessee State Fair Nashville, TN
COMPETITIVE FACILITIES TN Walking Horse Celebration

Cumberland County Fair
Shelbyville, TN
Crossville, TN
Coffee County Fair
Mid-South Fair
Manchester, TN
Southaven, MS
Delta Fair & Music Festival Memphis, TN Middle Tennessee District Fair Lawrenceburg, TN
AUGUST 2016 SEPTEMBER 2016

Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
Aug 1 2 3 4 5 6 Aug 28 29 30 31 Sep 1 2 3
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
28 29 30 31 Sep 1 2 3
25 26 27 28 29 30 Oct 1
24
Notes: Includes only fairs with 2015 attendance greater than 50,000.
Source: IAFE, 2016
Tennessee Fairs 2015 Attendance

600,000
COMPETITIVE FACILITIES 500,000

Average = 76,500
Median = 34,400
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
25
Source: IAFE, 2016
Comparable Facilities DRAFT COPY

Comparable Facilities - Summary
COMPARABLE FACILITIES
26
Comparable Facilities - Summary

Contiguous Indoor
Event Enclosed Covered Outdoor Event Exhibit Event
Facility Buildings Arenas Arenas Arenas Barns Halls Space Space
South Carolina State Fairgrounds 17 2 0 0 8 7 36,000 138,350
Ohio Expo Center 15 2 1 0 2 10 152,900 650,904
The Meadow Event Park 9 0 1 4 1 3 63,354 66,242
Fonner Park 11 3 0 1 5 2 80,000 88,000
Kansas State Fairgrounds 21 3 1 0 5 12 40,800 207,850
Indiana State Fairgrounds 17 1 0 0 1 15 147,050 699,150
Arkansas State Fair Complex 18 1 1 1 11 4 26,300 93,300
Kentucky Exposition Center 32 2 0 0 22 8 425,700 1,062,600
Georgia National Fairgrounds and Agricenter 20 4 3 0 5 8 84,480 207,965
Washington State Fair Events Center 16 1 1 0 5 9 82,972 232,747
Missouri State Fairgrounds 26 2 2 1 11 10 19,400 83,740
Average 18 2 1 1 7 8 105,360 320,986

Median 17 2 1 0 5 8 80,000 207,850
27
Size of Facilities Largest Indoor Arena

Largest Largest Secondary Tertiary
Indoor Arena Indoor Arena Arena Arena

COMPARABLE FACILITIES Facility
Fonner Park
Dimensions (ft.)
240x125
Sq. Ft.
30,000
Dimensions (ft.)
215x110 1
Dimensions (ft.)
210x102
Georgia National Fairgrounds and Agricenter 250x125 31,250 250x125 250x125
Washington State Fair Events Center 250x100 25,000 164x114 -
The Meadow Event Park - - 240x120 300x150
Missouri State Fairgrounds 174x118 20,532 190x104 220x80
Kansas State Fairgrounds 270x98 26,500 187x95 110x53
Arkansas State Fair Complex 240x120 28,800 240x120 120x80
Kentucky Exposition Center 310x137 42,500 310x136 -
Ohio Expo Center 225x112 25,200 187x76 300x128

South Carolina State Fairgrounds 250x150 37,500 166x79 -
Indiana State Fairgrounds 225x100 22,500 185x60 -
Average 243x119 28,978 212x104 216x103

Median 245x119 27,650 190x110 220x102
Covered Arena
Outdoor Arena
28

Summary of Total Indoor Event Space
Largest Contiguous Indoor
COMPARABLE FACILITIES Facility

Enclosed
Arenas
Indoor Arena
Sq. Ft
Event
Halls
Exhibit
Space
Event
Space
Kentucky Exposition Center 2 42,500 8 425,700 1,062,600
Ohio Expo Center 2 25,200 10 152,900 650,904
Indiana State Fairgrounds 1 22,500 15 147,050 699,150
Georgia National Fairgrounds and Agricenter 4 31,250 8 84,480 207,965
Washington State Fair Events Center 1 25,000 9 82,972 232,747
Fonner Park 3 30,000 2 80,000 88,000
The Meadow Event Park 0 - 3 63,354 66,242
Kansas State Fairgrounds 3 26,500 12 40,800 207,850

South Carolina State Fairgrounds 2 37,500 7 36,000 138,350
Arkansas State Fair Complex 1 28,800 4 26,300 93,300
Missouri State Fairgrounds 2 20,532 10 19,400 83,740
Average 2 28,978 8 105,360 320,986

Median 2 27,650 8 80,000 207,850
29
Comparable Markets Proposed Manchester Site Existing Nashville Site
% of Rank % of Rank
Low High Average Median Estimate Avg. (out of 8) Estimate Avg. (out of 8)
COMPARABLE FACILITIES Population

30-Minute Drive 85,700 971,000 472,100 399,000 85,702 18% 7 963,295 204% 2
60-Minute Drive 683,700 1,942,300 1,378,600 1,527,600 683,659 50% 7 1,942,261 141% 1
90-Minute Drive 1,643,600 2,762,300 2,338,100 2,438,500 2,497,532 107% 2 2,762,311 118% 1
180-Minute Drive 5,102,200 9,510,600 7,817,300 7,917,200 8,636,432 110% 2 9,510,563 122% 1
240-Minute Drive 11,168,500 22,159,600 17,512,900 17,656,600 19,092,445 109% 3 17,767,699 101% 4
Average Household Income

30-Minute Drive $54,500 $104,300 $70,300 $66,900 $54,465 77% 8 $78,766 112% 2
60-Minute Drive $60,900 $76,100 $69,700 $71,100 $60,890 87% 8 $74,390 107% 2
90-Minute Drive $57,800 $72,700 $67,600 $68,900 $69,020 102% 4 $68,269 101% 6
180-Minute Drive $58,300 $66,300 $62,100 $62,100 $66,296 107% 1 $62,182 100% 4
240-Minute Drive $61,600 $67,900 $66,000 $66,600 $67,644 102% 2 $65,559 99% 6
Median Age
30-Minute Drive 33.7 39.0 37.2 37.4 40.8 110% 1 36.3 98% 6
60-Minute Drive 36.1 41.3 37.0 36.6 35.9 97% 7 36.5 99% 5
90-Minute Drive 36.2 41.7 37.7 37.2 37.8 100% 2 36.8 98% 6
180-Minute Drive 37.9 38.7 39.0 39.0 38.8 100% 6 39.0 100% 4
240-Minute Drive 37.9 38.7 38.3 38.2 38.0 99% 4 38.5 101% 3
Corporate Base
30-Minute Drive 3,700 39,000 21,500 18,500 3,702 17% 7 50,110 233% 1
60-Minute Drive 23,100 75,700 56,200 61,900 23,116 41% 7 81,187 144% 1
90-Minute Drive 63,600 109,300 95,300 100,900 109,269 115% 1 110,428 116% 1
30 180-Minute Drive
240-Minute Drive
195,400
446,000
343,600
897,000
307,300
704,800
311,300
713,600
343,615
771,954
112%
110%
1
3
375,099
714,409
122%
101%
1
4
Source: Esri, 2016


Population Comparison
Market 30-minute 60-minute 90-minute 180-minute 240-minute
COMPARABLE FACILITIES Puyallup, WA 1,164,440 2,973,517 4,208,081 7,657,203 8,972,499
Columbus, OH 1,518,007 2,375,116 4,137,603 15,822,881 28,669,952
Indianapolis, IN 1,296,378 2,218,268 3,364,461 15,705,006 29,685,563
Nashville, TN - Existing Site 963,295 1,942,261 2,762,311 9,510,563 17,767,699
Doswell, VA 415,753 1,585,146 3,491,907 15,090,626 22,441,053
Louisville, KY 993,618 1,541,480 2,529,350 11,954,218 19,830,304
Columbia, SC 535,105 997,288 2,185,926 11,074,317 21,969,686
Little Rock, AR 457,063 906,622 1,224,054 4,166,390 7,549,166
Manchester, TN - Proposed Site 85,702 683,659 2,497,532 8,636,432 19,092,445
Hutchinson, KS 67,654 565,290 907,546 2,096,733 7,575,040

Perry, GA 179,069 542,188 1,163,335 10,107,943 15,882,428
Sedalia, MO 60,588 226,198 1,461,102 6,384,846 9,176,846
Grand Island, NE 76,658 187,791 463,999 1,994,113 3,082,212
Average 614,939 1,283,537 2,285,215 9,277,661 15,894,068
Median 457,063 997,288 2,185,926 10,107,943 15,882,428
Manchester Rank (out of 13) 10 9 7 8 6
31
Note: Sorted by 60-minute drive time. Average and medians do not include Manchester or Nashville population data.
Source: Esri, 2016
2015 State Fair Attendance

2,000,000
Average = 558,300
1,800,000
Median = 438,800
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
32
(1) Georgia National Fair
Source: IAFE, 2016

Fonner Park Grand Island, Nebraska
COMPARABLE FACILITIES Key Facility

1 Einhusen Arena
2 Five Points Bank Arena
3 Thompson Foods Indoor Arena
4 Thompson Foods Open Air Arena
5 Pinnacle Bank Expo Center
6 Bosselman Conference Center
7 Big Red Barn
8 Cattle Barn
5 9 Horse Barns
1 10 Sheep Barn
10
6 11 Swine Barn and Arena
4
3 Note: Nebraska State Fair buildings include the Five
2
Points Bank Arena, Pinnacle Bank Expo Center, the
sheep and cattle barn and the swine barn and arena.
8
7 9
11
33
Fonner Park Grand Island, Nebraska

FACILITY: FONNER PARK
City, State: Grand Island, Nebraska

COMPARABLE FACILITIES Owner: Fonner Park
Operator: Fonner Park/ Nebraska State Fair Board (Fair)
Facility Specs: Exhibit Space: 180,000 sf
Largest Contiguous Exhibit: 100,000 sf
Total Arena Space: 55,500 sf
Largest Indoor Arena: 30,000 sf
Stalls: 1,200 stalls
RV: 100 RV Hook-ups
Notes: State Legislature decided to move the Nebraska State Fair from Lincoln
to Fonner Park in 2008, first fair in Grand Island occurred in 2010.
Approximately $42 million was provided to construct additional fair
facilities from the University of Nebraska ($21.5 million), City of Grand
Island ($8.5), Nebraska State Fair Board ($7.0 million) and the State of
Nebraska ($5.0).
The Nebraska State Fair Board (501(c)5) has a 50 year lease for the fair
facilities which is owned by Fonner Park.
The State Fair receives approximately ten percent of Nebraska State
Lottery revenues (approximately $4 million) for Fair operations.
In 2015, the Grand Island Livestock Complex Authority (GILCA) was
established to promote and market the livestock facilities for events
outside of the fair, consists of Fonner Park, NE State Fair Board, the
Grand Island Chamber of Commerce and the CVB.
Host approximately ten national shows at the livestock facilities annually.
Fair representatives state that the relocation of the fair has resulted in a
34 significant positive impact on the fair.

Washington State Fairgrounds Puyallup, WA
Key Facility
COMPARABLE FACILITIES 5
1
2
Paulhamus Arena
Show Arena
6
9 3 Agriplex
4 Centennial Building
7 5 Expo Hall
10 6 Fair Food Court
7 Fair View Club
8 Meeting Rooms
9 Pavilion
4
10 Sleep TrainShowplex
2
11 Washington State Fair Farm

13
12 Barn Complex
13 Beef Barn
3 12
35
Washington State Fairgrounds Puyallup, WA

FACILITY: WASHINGTON STATE FAIRGROUNDS
City, State: Puyallup, Washington

COMPARABLE FACILITIES Owner:
Operator: Western Washington Fair Association
Stalls: 258 Stalls
RV: 100 RV Hook-ups
Notes: In 2013, The Puyallup Fair was rebranded to the Washington State
Fair.
Name change has helped with marketing efforts and increased
sponsorship.
Have seen an approximate 3 percent annual growth in sponsorship

since rebranding.
In 2016, they extended their fair to 21 days.
Annually host an average of 150 to 160 non-fair events, with strong
growth in recent years.
Approximately 75 percent of non-fair events are returning events
from years prior.
In 2016, the 12,000 sf Arena and 22,000 Agriplex opened at a total
cost of approximately $7.4 million
36

Meadow Event Park Doswell, VA
Key Facility
COMPARABLE FACILITIES 1
2
First Bank & Trust Co. Pavilion/Southern States Club Master Arena
Outdoor Ring 1
3 Outdoor Ring 2
4 Outdoor Ring 3
5 Outdoor Ring 4
7
6 Farm Bureau Center
7 Meadow Hall
8 Meadow Pavilion
9 Southern States Legends Stables
1
4 5
9
2
37
Meadow Event Park Doswell, VA

FACILITY: MEADOW EVENT PARK
City, State: Doswell, Virginia

COMPARABLE FACILITIES Owner: Virginia Farm Bureau Federation
Operator: Virginia Farm Bureau Federation
Largest Indoor Arena: n/a
Stalls: 143 Stalls
RV: 48 RV Hook-ups
Notes: The Virginia State Fair was located at the Richmond International
Raceway through 2008.
Due to increased crime, limitations with an urban location, among other
restraints, the Fair decided to relocate.
In 2009, the $81 million Meadow Event Park opened and became the
new home for the Fair.
At the end of 2011, long time Fair operator, State Fair of Virginia Inc.
(SFVA) filed for bankruptcy with more than $80 million in debt due to the
stock market plunge in 2009 effecting its investment portfolio as well as
poor attendance in 2009 and 2010.
In 2012, SFVA ceased operations and auctioned the property, Universal
Fairs purchased the Park for an estimated $5.35 million with the VA Farm
Bureau Federation having a 50 percent stake.
In 2013, the VA Farm Bureau Federation assumed full ownership.
Fair attendance has averaged approximately 220,000 the past five years.
Annually, there are between 250 and 275 non-fair event days.
38

Georgia National Fairgrounds and Agricenter Perry, GA
COMPARABLE FACILITIES Key Facility

1 Beef Dairy Arena
2 New South Arena
20
3 Reaves Arena
12 2
19 4 Sutherland Livestock & Equine Arena
15
13 5 Covered Horse Arena
11 6 Practice Ring #2
7 Practice Ring #3
1 7 4
10 16 14 8 Corral
8 9 Fairview Room
10 Georgia Grown Building
5
6 11 Heritage Hall
3
12 McGill MarketPlace
13 Miller-Murphy-Howard Building
14 Multipurpose Livestock/Exhibit Bldg.
17 18 15 Roquemore Conference Center
16 Beef/Dairy Barn
17 Horse Barn #1
18 Horse Barn #2
19 Sheep/Swine Barn #1
39 20 Sheep/Swine Barn #2

FACILITY: GEORGIA NATIONAL FAIRGROUNDS AND AGRICENTER
City, State: Perry, Georgia

COMPARABLE FACILITIES Owner: State of Georgia
Operator: Georgia Agricultural Exposition Authority
Stalls: 1,610 Stalls
RV: 300 RV Hook-ups
Notes: Developed to create a facility to better serve GA youth and
agricultural organizations
Fairgrounds opened in 1990 at a total cost of approximately $25
million funded through issuance of bonds by the State.
Because the fairgrounds is State owned paid for through State

issued bonds, the fairgrounds cannot have major sponsorships and
also does not serve alcohol.
Purpose of the development was to create an agricultural facility
to better serve states youth, agricultural organizations, among
others.
In 2016, the 11-day fair attracted approximately 536,800
attendees.
Fair generates an estimated $80 million annual impact to the area.
There are more than 400 non-fair events drawing more than
500,000 visitors at the Fairgrounds annually, the largest number of
40 which are equestrian events.

The Georgia National Fairgrounds and Agricenter (GNFA) opened in June of 1990 at an approximate cost of $25 million. Prior to that, Macon County Fairgrounds
COMPARABLE FACILITIES served as the main agricultural facility in the state and home to the Georgia State Fair. In the early 1980s state leaders felt the facilities in Macon were no longer
sufficient and determined the need to study the feasibility of upgrading those facilities or to build a new fairgrounds to better serve the states youth, agricultural
organizations and other events and activities.
Legislators felt that a more rural location with easy interstate access offered the greatest opportunity, and decided that investing in a new complex in Perry,
approximately 30 miles from Macon and 100 miles from Atlanta, was the most feasible option.
The City of Perry and Houston County purchased land off of Interstate-75 at approximately $1.15 million ($575,000 each) and deeded it to the State of Georgia.
Funding for the $25 million complex was paid for by the State through the issuance of bonds. Since its opening in 1990, the Fairgrounds and Agricenter have
invested nearly $20 million to expand the complex and are currently considering an additional expansion that would include a new multipurpose equine facility.
GNFA is owned by the State of Georgia and operated by the Georgia Agricultural Exposition Authority, an authority of the State created in 1985 established to:
Showcase Georgias agricultural/agribusiness;

Promote the agricultural achievements of Georgias youth;
Provide a center for diverse activities to benefit the states economy; and,
To stage and promote a statewide fair to accomplish one or more of the above.
In addition to managing the GNFA, the Authority also operates the annual Georgia National Fair. The first Georgia National Fair was held in 1990 and drew
approximately 150,000 attendees. Since its inaugural year, the 11-day Fair has continued to grow, drawing in excess of 536,000 attendees and more than 400
exhibitors and staff in 2016. Further, in 2016, the Fair generated more than $550,000 in revenues.
While not Georgias official State Fair, the Georgia National Fairs has become significantly more successful. In 2012, the Georgia State Fair located at the
fairgrounds in Macon generated attendance levels of approximately 40,000. This competition as well as low attendance caused the State Fair to be purchased
and relocated to the Atlanta Motor Speedway, 30 miles outside of downtown Atlanta.
In addition to the Georgia National Fair, the GNFA has more than 400 additional event days throughout the year, drawing attendance in excess of 500,000. Due
to the size and number of facilities, the GNFA typically has three to four events going on simultaneously. The largest number of events annually are equestrian.
41 The GNFAs annual budget is approximately $10 million, of which, approximately $5.5 million is dedicated to the operations of the annual fair.
Market Demand Analysis DRAFT COPY

Typical Non-Fair Events by Type
HORSE SHOW/EVENTS CONSUMER/PUBLIC SHOWS LIVESTOCK SHOWS
Gaited Gun show Pig shows/sales
Barrel racing Antique show Cattle show/sales
Carriage Auto show Sheep show/sales
Pleasure Boat & RV show Goat show/sales
Cutting Bridal show Alpaca show/sales
MARKET DEMAND
Dressage Craft & quilt fair MEETINGS/BANQUETS

Driving Home improvement show
Equitation Home & garden show Meetings
Hunter Sports show Banquets
Jumper Receptions
Racing Weddings
Reigning CONVENTIONS/TRADESHOWS Seminars

Penning Corporate training
Corporate
Western Lectures
Private trade
Walking State association OTHER EVENTS
Roping Regional association
Rodeo Graduations
National association Festivals
International association Flea Markets
Social, military, education, religious, Motocross
fraternal Exams
42 Concerts
Amateur Sports
State Fair Stakeholders Contacted for Interviews

Agricenter International TN Council of Cooperatives TN Walking Horse National Celebration
TN Dairy Producers Association TN Dairy Products Association TSU College of Agriculture, Human and Natural Sciences
Austin Peay State Univ. Dept. of Agriculture TN Farm Bureau Federation TTU College of Agriculture and Human Ecology
Burley Stabilization Corporation TN Farm Winegrowers Association TTU School of Agriculture
Farm Credit Services of Mid-America TN Farmers Cooperative USDA Farm Service Agency
Middle TN Nursery Association TN Feed & Grain Assn. USDA Forest Service
MTSU School of Agribusiness and Agriscience TN FFA Alumni Association USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service
MARKET DEMAND
National Cotton Council TN Forage & Grassland Council USDA Rural Development
National Hardwood Lumber Association TN Forestry Association USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service
Pick TN Conference TN Forestry Commission UT Center for Profitable Agriculture
Southeast United Dairy Industry Association TN Fruit and Vegetable Growers Association UT College of Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources
Southern Cotton Ginners Assn. TN Fuel & Convenience Store Association UT College of Veterinary Medicine
UT Extension 4-H, Ag Leadership, Edu. and Comm. TN Grocers and Convenience Store Association UT AgResearch
UT Extension 4-H Youth Development TN Livestock Marketing Association UT Institute of Agriculture

TN 4-H Foundation, Inc. TN Livestock Producers, Inc. UT Extension
TN Agricultural Museum Association TN Nursery and Landscape Association University of TN
TN Agricultural Production Association TN Pest Control Association UT Institute of Agriculture Marketing and Communications
TN Association of Conservation Districts TN Pork Producers Association UT Martin College of Agriculture and Applied Sciences
TN Association of Agricultural Educators TN Poultry Association UT Martin Dept. of Ag, Geosciences and Nat. Resources
TN Association of Fairs TN Soybean Promotion Board TN Sheep Producers Association
TN Beef Industry Council TN Urban Forestry Council TN Technological University
TN Beekeepers Association TN Veterinary Medical Association UT-Extension
43 TN Boll Weevil Foundation, Inc. TN Viticulture & Oenological Society
TN Cattlemens Association TN Walking Horse Breeders and Exhibitors Assn

Other Potential Users Contacted for Interviews
American Dairy Goat Association Middle TN State University TN Quarter Horse Association
East Coast Reined Cow Horse Classic Mule Day, Columbia TN Reining Horse Association
East TN Hunter Jumper Association National Spotted Saddle Horse Association TN Walking Horse Breeders & Exhibitors Asson
Germantown Charity Horse Show Spotted Saddle Horse Breeders & Exhibitors Assn TN Walking Horse National Celebration
MARKET DEMAND
Hillsboro Hounds Hunt Club Tennessee Cattlemen's Association United Racking Horse Owners & Exhibitors Assn
Intercollegiate Horse Shows Association Tennessee Dairy Producers Association United States Team Roping Championships
International Barrel Riding Association Tennessee Paint Horse Club University of Tennessee
Iroquois Steeplechase, Nashville Tennessee Pony of the Americas Club Volunteer Ranch Horse Association
Jx2 Productions Tennessee Valley Hunt Club, Inc West Tennessee Quarter Horse Association
Livestock Marketing Association Tennessee Valley Paso Fino Association West TN Hunter Jumper Association
Lone Star Rodeo Company Tennessee Valley Paso Fino Association Wilson County Fair Dairy Goat Show
Middle TN Hunter Jumper Association TN Miniature Horse Volunteers
44
Tennessee State Fair

Livestock Superintendent
Oversees mules, beef, dairy, poultry, rabbits and all other shows
Not enough parking and/or marshalling area
Not enough barns and show rings to accommodate all exhibitors from all breeds/species
Need improved electricity, water and drainage
Outdoor Equestrian Arena essentially a stop-gap solution; no stalling, so they can only hold smaller, one-day shows
MARKET DEMAND
Could go up to one-hour outside of Nashville with minimal impact on exhibitor attendance
Equestrian Superintendent
Need an indoor horse show arena ideally with seating for 5,000 to 8,000; something similar to Calsonic Arena in
Shelbyville or MTSUs Miller Coliseum on Murfreesboro
Need access to 500 stalls in an enclosed building with HVAC; potential to add another 500 temporary stalls for future
growth of the Fair and other year-round non-Fair events
Covered warm-up ring of similar size to main indoor ring
Large outdoor ring large enough to host two concurrent small to medium-sized events
Covered grandstand that can hold 8,000 to 10,000 people
Parking for 100 trucks and livestock trailers
50 to 75 RV hook-ups
Indoor mule-pulling barn/shed; approximately 500 x 100 would be wide enough for seating.
Getting exhibitors to the Fairgrounds for Fair and non-Fair events would not be the problem; getting attendees to
45 drive out to Manchester would be the concern

Future Farmers of America (FFA)

Currently house dairy, swine, beef and sheep competition during State Fair, but have to host equine show elsewhere.
Want all events on-site at same time (over the course of 2-4 days)
Potential opportunity to host additional year-round FFA events between September and April
Could grow existing FFA Ham Breakfast event from 500 attendees (maximum capacity due to space limitations) up
MARKET DEMAND
to 1,000 attendees
Need indoor arena with 1,000 to 1,500 seats and a secondary warm-up show ring with limited seating
Tennessee Farm Bureau

State Fair is an opportunity to educate people on agriculture
Need areas where public can interact with animals and exhibitors
Need 4 total show rings for Equine, Dairy/Beef, Goats/Sheep and Pigs/Swine
Need 6 total indoor barns for Sheep/Goats, Swine, Poultry, Rabbits, Bovine (plus access to a tie-out area outside)
and Equine
Super Barn concept would work, assuming sufficient space were available
46

Tennessee 4-H
Have never viewed current location as a State Fair site; use Wilson County Fairgrounds and MTSU Livestock Event
Center for past events
Able to host single-species shows, not multiple species shows concurrently due to space limitations
Need a main show ring of 300 x 150 with between 1,000 and 1,500 seats; beef shows could also use this ring for 2
MARKET DEMAND
or 3 concurrently running shows

Two more warm-up rings of 250 - 200 x 125 100
Approximately 100 to 150 horse stalls
3-4 large buildings for species barns Super Barn concept may be an option worth considering
Entrants from 2016 State shows, by species, that would likely move to a newly developed State Fair complex
include:
Hog 615
Knoxville Spring Cattle 128
Horse 402
Beef 443
Sheep 646
Goat 197
Approximately 50,000 sf of exhibit space for non-animal contests/judging of speeches, project work displays,
clothing/textiles, etc.
47

Carnival Operator
Carnival rides, games and some food
Limited with existing power lines
They currently operate 30 rides in Tennessee, compared to 80+ in Indiana and Mississippi
Believes they would quickly increase ride capacity to 40 rides, requiring approximately 15 acres of space (depending
MARKET DEMAND
on the exact nature and structure of the various rides)

20-25 percent would be dedicated kids rides
50 percent would be adult/kids rides
20 percent would be thrill-rides (teenagers/adults only)
Would like to bring in a new/bigger/better roller coaster
Need investment into management and marketing of the State Fair; not just in infrastructure
Creative Arts Superintendent

Trying to work toward having more of a Maker Faire feel; antiques too closely resemble Flea Market wares
Maxed out of space within Creative Arts Building
Views Fair as more of a Davidson County fair than a true State Fair; moving too far from Nashville/Davidson County
could significantly sacrifice participation and attendance rates. Manchester too far. I-840 corridor would work okay.
Lots of Davidson County school kids will attend State Fair on a field trip
48

Tennessee Statewide Agricultural Industry Leadership
General Comments
Need access to a sufficient workforce to operate a State Fair
Need access to adequate supply of medical support facilities
Will draw exhibitors from FL, AL, KY, GA, TX, AZ and NM
Estimated that most State Fair attendees live within 50 miles of the complex
Need to invest in management and marketing the complex; not just facilities
MARKET DEMAND
Timing of Fair
Concept of State Fair being the ultimate goal of exhibitors attending County Fairs may need to consider new dates
for State Fair potentially early October
Somewhat difficult to get kids out of school to attend Fair; however, already have a number of prominent county fairs
that occur throughout September
Many schools will have field trips to State Fair; moving too far away from significant population base may minimize
opportunity to market to this demographic
49

Programming
Potential Agricultural Innovation and Entrepreneurship event
Convention-like atmosphere with general sessions
Static exhibits to display newest technology in farming
Can attract visitors directly involved in ag-related activities and those looking to reconnect with the historical
significance of farming
MARKET DEMAND
Hands-on exhibits and activities:

Simulated milking station
Farm-to-table walkthrough exhibit geared toward young children
Tiny Acres simulating farmers activities
Ag in the Classroom
Petting zoo
Need more and improved opportunities for attendees to directly interact with horses, livestock and other animals
throughout the Fairgrounds
Monster Truck shows seem to draw a crowd
If demographic profile of location indicates an opportunity, consider developing an enclosed pavilion that could easily
open up during the summer months (overhead garage doors, etc.) for a year-round Farmers Market.
50

Location
Location on I-840 loop would be ideal (however, need to avoid competition with Williamson and Wilson County Fairs)
Manchester cited as a viable, though not ideal, location
State Fair is viewed by many as the Davidson County Fair. Relocating too far from Nashville/Davidson County
risks alienating a base of attendees, which may result in the spin-off of a more urban-fair offering more of a carnival-
like atmosphere with rides, games, kitschy entertainment and attractions and concert acts. While not directly
MARKET DEMAND
competing for animal show exhibitors and/or attendees directly interested in ag-related activities, this may have a
substantial impact on the marketability of the Fair as a whole.
Will be important to pursue sponsorship opportunities. However, Manchester location may limit opportunities due to
geographic location and a marginalized opportunity to attract an array of different attendee profiles
Coffee County (Manchester) has a strong County Fair
No County Fair in Rutherford County (Murfreesboro)
General sense that there are more attendees and/or potential future attendees from east of Nashville than from the
west
51
Tennessee Reining Horse Association

Event Characteristics
Produce four to five horse shows annually

Horse shows typically run five days from Wednesday through Sunday in March, May, June/July, August and October
Have between 250 and 450 horses per show, with an average of 2 to 4 people traveling per horse
Majority of their participants are from within the state, but they also pull from AR, FL, IN, KY, OK and TX
Approximately 60 to 70 percent of attendees require a hotel room
MARKET DEMAND
Previous/Current Facilities
Tennessee Miller Coliseum (Murfreesboro, TN):
Host two events annually
Great facilities, not enough stalls, high facility rental costs
Roane State CC Expo Center (Harriman, TN):

Host two to three shows annually
Not an ideal facility for their events They need a more shallow ground than what is currently available and the
facility has not been well kept
Location Consideration
Not critical for a potential new complex to remain in Nashville/Davidson County

Would prefer a central location within the state to better allow for them to continue to draw from regional states
Anywhere between current Nashville Fairgrounds location south to Chattanooga would not effect their events as far
east as Knoxville
52
Less interest in a complex too far west of Nashville
Tennessee Reining Horse Association

Potential Usage
Would definitely utilize a new complex

Would look to bring a minimum of four, potentially all five horse shows annually
No real opportunity to create new events beyond five existing events
Facility Requirements
Arena:
MARKET DEMAND
Three arenas, at least one indoor, the other two can be covered
Preference for indoor arenas
Typically use two arenas for showing and one for warming up, the show arena dimensions need to be 300x150
Type of ground is critical for their events; need a shallow ground
Seating is not important
Need additional area near the arena where vendors can set up booths
Stalls:
For their smaller events, need approximately 250 permanent stalls
Larger events require 400 to 450 permanent stalls
RV/Lodging:
Need approximately 150 RV hook-ups with water to accommodate their events, though project that closer to
300 would be regularly utilized at the complex
Additional hook-ups right outside of arena
Hotel with a minimum room count of 150 rooms
Other Requirements:
53 Concessions that serve breakfast and lunch
Bathrooms and showers in the barns
Tennessee Quarter Horse Association

Produce seven shows annually

Events are two to three days and held between March and September
Approximate 500 to 1,100 participants/exhibitors
MARKET DEMAND

Very satisfied with facilities
Prefer a lower price
Roane State CC Expo Center (Harriman, TN):

Overall not satisfied with facility offerings
Not critical for a potential new complex to remain in Nashville/Davidson County
Would not utilize a facility if it were located west of Nashville
Would prefer a complex within the I-840 loop, but Manchester would not be too far south
54
Tennessee Quarter Horse Association

Potential Usage

Would look to bring a three shows annually
No real opportunity to create new events beyond seven existing events
MARKET DEMAND
Arena:
At least one indoor arena, 300x150
Connected warm-up area, preference for indoor, but would require covered
Additional area within arena for potential vendors to use
Stalls:
Need between 350 and 500 covered stalls

No preference on permanent vs. temporary
RV/Lodging:
Need a minimum of 30 RV hook-ups
Need a hotel within close proximity, a headquarters hotel is ideal
55
TN Walking Horse Breeders & Exhibitors Assn

Produce four horse shows annually

Three events are one day, one event is three days
Events are held in July and August
Approximately 95 to 120 participants
Average between 100 and 200 spectators
MARKET DEMAND
Good access to stalls and warm up area
Audio is great
Traffic can be difficult
Calsonic Arena (Shelbyville, TN):

Building does not have AC
Lions Club Horse Show Grounds (Belfast, TN):
No traffic and great parking
No place for overnight stays or RV hook-ups
A new complex would need to be outside of Nashville (up to 50 miles away)
56 West side of I-65 would be great (between Columbia and Culleoka)
TN Walking Horse Breeders & Exhibitors Assn

Potential Usage

Would look to shift a minimum of three, maybe all four of their events to a new fairgrounds complex
Arena:
MARKET DEMAND
One climate controlled arena (300x150) with immediate accessibility to a warm up arena
Seating capacity between 500 and 700
Warm-up arena doesnt need to be air conditioned, but preferred and needs restrooms
Stalls:
Need at least 100 stalls
No preference on temporary vs. permanent, but needs to be easily flushed out at each end of
every row of stalls
RV/Lodging:
Need a minimum of 24 RV hookups
Other Requirements:
Lengthy complex entry way to allow for good traffic flow with fencing
State-of-the-Industry AV that can be heard in arenas and barns
Ample parking
57 Water access in all buildings
National Spotted Saddle Horse Association

Produce ten horse shows annually

Events are two to three days and held between March and September
Approximate 500 to 1,100 participants/exhibitors
Between 200 and 2,000 spectators for events
MARKET DEMAND
Cannon County Fairgrounds (Woodbury, TN)

Coffee County Fairgrounds (Manchester, TN)
Lincoln County Fairgrounds (Fayetteville, TN)
Tennessee Livestock Center (Murfreesboro, TN) too expensive
Thinks a new fairgrounds complex would need to move outside of Davidson County
A complex that is centrally located within the state with accessibility to interstate would be best
Believes Manchester would be an ideal location for a new fairgrounds
Potential Usage
Would look to bring a two to three of their events and would be willing to generate new events
58
National Spotted Saddle Horse Association

Arena:
Need at least two arenas and one warm-up area
Preference for climate controlled indoor facilities or covered
Bleacher seating for 500
Center ring pavilion or area for the judges
MARKET DEMAND
Event Space:
Banquet space for awards ceremony to accommodate approximately 300
Other Requirements:
Good lighting
Ample bathrooms
Reasonable rental rates is critical for indoor facilities, typical rates in the area are approximately
$1,200 to $1,300 per day, it is too expensive for their association
59
American Dairy Goat Association

Produce two national sales annually

Events occur in June or July and last one week
Exhibitor attendance ranges between 200 and 300 per event
Events have been rotating between the Farm Show Complex and Expo Center in Harrisburg, PA and
the Kentucky Expo Center in Louisville, KY
MARKET DEMAND
Critical for a new fairgrounds complex to be outside of Nashville, urban areas can be constraining
and a Nashville complex would be competing too much with their event in Louisville
Ideal location would be somewhere between Nashville, Knoxville and Chattanooga
Prefer a location that is within one hour of a major airport

Needs direct interstate access
Needs to be located within a market that has a lot of visitors amenities within close proximity
Potential Usage
Would look to shift one of their national sales
Ideally, would eventually like to find four fairgrounds complexes to sign agreements with and rotate
60 national shows annually
American Dairy Goat Association

Arena:
Two show rings within one building (each 75 to 80x125)
Indoor, climate controlled, with high ceilings
Floor type needs to be either hard back dirt with shavings or concrete
Some bleacher seating is preferred
Wash racks
MARKET DEMAND
Event Space:
Banquet space for a dinner and reception for 200 to 250
Space needs to be able to host a reception and a sale within the same building
Pens:
Need a minimum of 1,200 pens
Prefer temporary that can be adjustable (5x5 or 6x6)

Pens need to be on-site and included in pricing package, too expensive to rent
Connected to the show ring
Prefer indoor, climate controlled, with high ceilings to help with air ventilation
RV/Lodging:
Need a minimum of 30 RV hookups
Other Requirements:
Within ten minutes of a hotel prefer less expensive brands
61 Reasonable rates needs to be within $50,000 to $70,000 per week
Legal way to dispose of milk
Agriculture/Livestock
Sample of Events
Angus Breeders' Futurity Boer Goat Show

TN Cattlemans Association Lowline Angus Association
Dairy Goat Association Brangus Breeders Assn.
Simmental Breeders
MARKET DEMAND
Events typically held between March and September.

Events run two to three days over the weekend.
Average between 100 and 500 animals per show.
Level and Source of Demand
Local (moderate), Regional (moderate), National (limited).

Overall moderate level of demand.
Reasons for Not Considering New Fairgrounds Complex
Many state events are more association related and

62 require a hotel/conference center for events.
Agriculture/Livestock
Location Considerations
Not critical to remain in Nashville/Davidson County.

Preference to remain within I-840 loop.
Needs to have easy interstate access.
MARKET DEMAND
Arena:
Multiple show rings, preference for indoor.
Some bleacher seating.
Event Space:
Exhibition space for conventions.
Additional ballroom/breakout space for meal functions

or meetings.
Stalls:
Preference for portable, adjustable pens.
Other Requirements:
Connected to or within close proximity of hotels.
Reasonable rental rates.
63
Champion Force Athletics

Produce 8 cheerleading and karate tournaments and competitions and two cheerleading clinics per year
Events are one day that last 12 to 14 hours
Winter events are held in December and January; spring events are held in April and May
Largest cheerleading event has approximately 900 participants with an estimated 1,800 spectators
MARKET DEMAND
Wilson Ag Expo (Franklin, TN):

It fits their needs and will allow for their events to grow in size
Pricing is high
Some parents feel the location is too far, but facility acts as centralized location
In order to relocate, the facility would need to be within 30 miles of Nashville

Potential Usage
Would possibly consider utilizing a new complex
Would look to relocate their largest event to a new complex
Exhibit Space:
Enough contiguous flat floor space to accommodate a minimum of two full basketball courts, warm-up area,
64 space for vendors, announcers/MC area, and trophy area
Private meeting/office space
Mid State Youth Sports

Produce tournaments for youth and adult basketball, soccer and flag football
Produce 8 to 10 youth basketball tournaments and 10 to 15 adult basketball tournaments annually
and have grown to add one additional tournament per year
Tournaments run between March and May from Friday night through Sunday afternoon
Youth tournaments host approximately 250 teams, approximately of teams are non-local
MARKET DEMAND
All tournaments are currently held at school gymnasiums or multi-court facilities within Davidson
County
Larger state/regional tournament has been held at Rocky Top in Gatlinburg ideal facility
Lack of multi-court facilities in the area or space that could accommodate multiple courts
Pricing and availability of local facilities is an issue
Critical to remain in Davidson County
Preference for a complex on the north side of Nashville/Davidson County
Proximity to Nashville is a large draw for their events
65

Mid State Youth Sports
Potential Usage
Would look to relocate minimum of six, and as many as eight, tournaments, with the expectation to
grow by one tournament annually
Envision future usage of hosting tournaments every weekend for at least six months a year
Additional potential to use for weekly league play and practice (six days per week)
MARKET DEMAND
Exhibit Space:
Enough contiguous flat floor space to accommodate five to six full-size basketball courts
Bleacher seating for 50 per court

Facility would need to provide portable court flooring, bleacher seating and basketball hoops
Other Requirements:
Concessions area
Large bathrooms
Within 10 to 15 minutes from hotel
Pricing is critical would need to be around $500 per court per weekend
66
Consumer/Tradeshow/Conventions
Organizations Interviewed
Bill Goodmans Gun & Knife Show

MK Shows
RK Shows
Smoky Mountain Gun Collectors Association
Tennessee Cattlemen's Association
MARKET DEMAND

Consumer Shows:
Local (moderate to strong), Regional (moderate to limited),
National (limited)
Overall Moderate to low level of demand
Tradeshow/Conventions:
Local (low to moderate)
Overall low level of demand

Organization is local and will not consider relocating.
Specific venue preferences.
67
Consumer/Tradeshow/Conventions
Not critical to remain in Nashville

Critical to remain within 25 to 30 miles of Nashville
Potential Usage
Public/consumer shows present the greatest potential source
MARKET DEMAND
of exhibit space usage
Contiguous exhibit space is critical, between 50,000 and 100,000
square feet
High preference for subdivisible space.

High level of interior finish is not required of most events;
however, offering a smaller space with slightly elevated finish
provides an opportunity to accommodate certain banquets,
meetings and other such events
Wi-Fi access is becoming increasingly standard
Large overhead hanging doors for easy load-in/out at ground level
Controlled access points for ticketing and/or security
68 Access to food & beverage options enhance marketability of event
Concerts, Promoted Shows and Other Entertainment

Sample Events
Kicker Arenacross AC Entertainment
Live Nation Harlem Globetrotters
Professional Rodeo
Cowboys Association
Concerts and Promoted Events:
MARKET DEMAND
Local (Moderate), Regional (low), National (low)

Overall low level of demand

Prefer a larger market like Nashville or Chattanooga, limited
population in and around Manchester/Coffee County would make it a

difficult draw for many acts
Would likely need to purchase acts to perform during State Fair
Limited opportunity to increase concert and/or performance activity
during non-State Fair dates
Increased opportunity to attract concerts and other promoted/touring
acts or shows if located closer to Nashville
Bonnaroo/AC Entertainment/Live Nation association would maximize
potential to draw touring acts; however, beyond festival-oriented
69 events, the remote location of the site would be expected to be
challenging for attracting concerts and other entertainment events
and event levels in this segment would be expected to be low. Source: CSL Potential User Survey 2016.
Market Demand Conclusions DRAFT COPY
1. Existing Fairgrounds Nashville site is not a long-term solution for hosting the Tennessee State Fair. Existing
site/location is problematic on many levels and significantly constrains growth, attendance and impact of the Fair.
2. Moderate to strong demand was measured among ag/equestrian/livestock representatives for a State Fair site
located outside of Nashville.

3. Demand begins to wane among urban attendees the further the Fair is located outside the I-840 loop.
4. Moderate demand among non-Fair related event activity:
a) Ag/equestrian/livestock shows indicated a moderate to strong interest in hosting future events.
b) Demand associated with many consumer shows, conventions, tradeshows, and non-festival-associated
concert/entertainment incrementally weakens the further outside of Nashville a potential facility is located. As
MARKET DEMAND
such, a Bonnaroo location will likely result in lower demand than industry typical.
5. Consideration should be given to shifting State Fair dates. First week in October was mentioned by a number of
interviewees and a reborn State Fair could slot here as the final fair event of the season.
6. Manchester viewed as a viable location among ag-related events. However, a location closer to I-840 and Nashville
preferred.
7. Dirt-oriented events such as equestrian, livestock and agricultural-related events expected to be the primary
demand generator.
8. Other types of non-dirt events such as public/consumer shows, meetings/banquets/receptions and/or amateur
sports tournaments/ competitions could also provide important facility utilization.
9. Limited opportunity to attract additional concerts or other promoted shows outside of traditional Bonnaroo or State
Fair event dates.
10. For confidentiality reasons, the Bonnaroo site was not specifically identified during potential user surveys. Location
was spoken about in terms of an hour or more from downtown Nashville. The Murfreesboro area was repeatedly
cited by interviewees as an ideal general site location and driving distance for a new State Fairgrounds.
70
Market Supportable Program
DRAFT COPY
1) Indoor Arena
Dirt floor
SUPPORTABLE PROGRAM
Ring size targeting 300 x 150 (45,000 SF)

Seating for approximately 5,000 (allow for potential future expansion)
Approximately 10,000 additional square feet at one end for chutes, pens and/or staging
Multiple roll-up doors and space for lobby, show offices, concessions, box office, restrooms, etc.
Climate controlled
Connectivity with warm-up area and stalls
2) Warm-up Areas
Ring size targeting a 300 x 150 ring, with a minimum size of 250 x 125
Dirt floor (similar footing quality to Main Arena)
Climate control would be preferable, but not critical (at a minimum, incorporate industrial ceiling fans)
Seating for approximately 500 (allow for potential future expansion)

Additional outdoor ring targeting a 300 x 150 ring, with a minimum size of 250 x 125
3) Concert/Entertainment Assumptions
No dedicated grandstand for concert or other performance events
Assumed use of Bonnaroo Main Stage or other performance venues for hosting promoted acts
Dedicated transportation system/people mover to connect preferred Fair site with Bonnaroo infrastructure
71
DRAFT COPY
4) Stalls and Barns
SUPPORTABLE PROGRAM
Approximately 500 permanent stalls plus storage (allow for potential future expansion)
Additional Barns for beef/dairy, swine, sheep and goats:
Concrete floor, column-free exhibition space
1 @ 80,000 square feet (Beef/Dairy)
2 @ 40,000 to 45,000 square feet (Goats & Swine)
1 @ 35,000 square feet (Sheep)
Consider development of Super Barn (all facilities under one roof) to allow for enhanced flexibility
Enhanced access points for Fair attendees to interact with animals
Program additional space to allow for temporary pens, cattle ties, etc.
Electrical drops at every stall; minimum of three to four wash racks

Easy access for load-in/out from parking area
5) Additional Programming to Consider
Exhibits and hands-on displays to allow people to re-connect with agriculture and farming activities such as a
simulated milking station, Tiny Acres farmer experience, petting zoo, etc.
Covered/semi-enclosed pavilion for a year-round Farmers Market
Farm equipment inspired playground
72
DRAFT COPY
6) Exhibit and Meeting Space
SUPPORTABLE PROGRAM
40,000 square feet of space for non-animal activities (arts, crafts, textiles, etc.)
15,000-square foot banquet hall
Some sub-divisibility options (via air walls)
Concrete floor
Column-free or minimal columns
One to three show offices/meeting rooms
Climate controlled
7) Other Indoor Areas
Commercial kitchen facilities utilize access of farm-to-table produce
Lobby, storage and other back-of-house

Three to four showers (per gender) and locker rooms
Wi-Fi access
PA system with controllable access among Arena, Warm-up Area and Stalls
8) Outdoor Areas
Approximately 150 RV hookups
73 Ample trailer parking to accommodate large truck and trailer rigs

Estimated Annual Number of Events DRAFT COPY
Stabilized Year of Operations

COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS
74
75
Estimated Annual Event Days DRAFT COPY
Estimated Average Attendees Per Day DRAFT COPY

76
Estimated Annual Attendee Days DRAFT COPY

77
Economic Impact Concepts
DRAFT COPY
Direct Spending consists principally of initial purchases made by attendees at an event who do
not reside in the local area. This spending typically takes place in local hotels, restaurants, retail
COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS establishments and other such businesses. An example of direct spending is when an out-of-town
event attendee pays a local hotel for overnight lodging accommodations.
Indirect Spending consists of the re-spending of the initial or direct expenditures. An example
of indirect spending is when a restaurant purchases additional food and dining supplies as a result of
new dining expenditures through increased patronage. A certain portion of these incremental supply
expenditures occurs within the local community (i.e., indirect spending, the type of which is quantified
under this analysis), while another portion leaves the local economy (i.e., leakage).
Induced Spending consists of the positive changes in employment, earnings and tax
collections generated by changes in population associated with direct/indirect expenditures.
Total Output represents the total direct, indirect and induced spending effects generated by the
project. This calculation measures the total dollar change in output that occurs in the local economy for
each dollar of output delivered to final demand.
Earnings (or Personal Income) represents the wages and salaries earned by employees of
businesses associated with or impacted by the project. In other words, the multiplier measures the total
dollar change in earnings of households employed by the affected industries for each additional dollar
of output delivered to final demand.
Employment represents the number of full- and part-time jobs. The employment multiplier
78 measures the total change in the number of jobs in the local economy (throughout a wide diversity of
industry sectors) for each additional $1.0 million of output delivered to final demand.
Est. Annual Non-Local Attendee Days DRAFT COPY
Attendees that do not reside in Coffee County, Stabilized Year of Operations

79
Est. Annual Hotel Room Nights DRAFT COPY
In Coffee County, Stabilized Year of Operations

80
Estimated Annual Direct Spending DRAFT COPY
In Coffee County, Stabilized Year of Operations, 2016$

81
Estimated Annual Economic Impacts DRAFT COPY
In Coffee County, Stabilized Year of Operations, 2016$

82
Estimated Annual Financial Operations DRAFT COPY
Stabilized Year of Operations, 2016$, excluding debt service

83
Overall Conclusions DRAFT COPY
1. Existing Fairgrounds Nashville site is not a long-term solution for hosting the TN State Fair. Existing site/location is
problematic on many levels and is significantly constraining the growth, attendance and impact of the Fair.
2. Consideration could be given to shifting State Fair dates. The first week in October was mentioned by a number of
interviewees and a relocated State Fair could slot at that point and would then represent the final fair event of the season.
COST/BENEFIT ANALYSIS 3. The proposed location of a new Fairgrounds at the Bonnaroo site in Manchester is believed to be sufficient for a new home
for the Tennessee State Fair, allowing for the development of an appropriate array of facilities and infrastructure that could
allow the Fair to significantly grow and better support the states agricultural, livestock and equine industries.
4. However, the remote location will have important implications on event/attendance attraction for non-Fair events. Overall
event and attendance levels would be expected to be lower than industry averages associated with comparable complexes.
5. Negative impacts associated with the remote location for certain event segments, such as livestock/ag/equine events, tend
to be more limited than those expected for other event segments, such as public/consumer shows, tradeshows, concerts,
entertainment, and sporting events.
6. Event attraction and operating synergy associated with a potential partnership with Bonnaroo/AC Enter/Live Nation would
be expected to be somewhat limited. The primary partner benefit rests with the land opportunity and willing partner to
undertake operating responsibility.
7. The Murfreesboro area was repeatedly cited by interviewees as an ideal general site location and driving distance for a new
State Fairgrounds, that would be preferable over a Manchester location.

8. The facilities program and concept (Option C) developed by Populous largely appears appropriate for the proposed project.
9. It is estimated that the new Fairgrounds would attract 54 events, 131 event days, and 308,000 attendees per year (upon
stabilization of operations, assumed to occur by year five) under a Base Case scenario.
10. Low, Base and High Case Scenarios estimate State Fair attendance at 100,000, 200,000, and 300,000, respectively.
11. A new State Fairgrounds would be expected to generate significant new economic impact in Coffee County,
generating $16.4 million in new direct spending and $40.7 million in economic output annually. Net new economic impacts
generated for the State would be expected to be limited.
12. Under the Low and Base Case, a new State Fairgrounds would be estimated to generate an annual operating deficit,
84 suggesting that an appropriate operating model would include contracted private management with a management
fee (base + incentive) and annual public sector operating subsidy support.

Tennessee State Fairgrounds Study For Bonnaroo Site in Manchester

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Tennessee State Fairgrounds Study For Bonnaroo Site in Manchester

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For Discussion Purposes Only

Feasibility Study of a Potential New State Fairgrounds

Feasibility Analysis of a Potential New State Fairgrounds in Manchester, Tennessee

The analyze the market, financial and economic

feasibility of a new fairgrounds complex at the

The study updates and builds on portions of

This study was requested by the State of

Tennessee to investigate the feasibility of a

Originally established by AC Entertainment in 2002.

the second Thursday in June.

Attendance has historically been between 70,000 and

In 2016, Bonnaroo was acquired by Live Nation

1. Site visit, facility/community tours

2. Stakeholder & community outreach

6. In-person & telephone user surveys

Current Home of TN State Fair

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

5 1 Creative Arts Building

Historical Event Activity

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

Recent Financial Operating Results

Advertising/Public Relations 199,288 232,852 203,249 189,495

7 Net Operating Profit/(Deficit) $1,597 ($16,001) ($27,457) $166,084

Source: Tennessee State Fair, 2016

Key Demographic Metrics

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable 30-minute 60-minute 90-minute 180-minute 240-minute Tennessee U.S.

Population (2000) 734,150 1,408,305 2,132,536 8,183,251 15,271,553 5,689,283 281,421,906

Location & Driving Distance to Regional Cities

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

Source: Google Maps, Esri, 2016

Manchester, Tennessee Bonnaroo Site

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

Source: Populous, 2016

Driving Distance to Regional Cities

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

Nashville, TN 70 1:10 1,830,300

Jackson, TN 190 2:50 129,700

Source: Google Maps, Esri, 2016

Key Demographic Metrics

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

Demographic Variable 30-minute 60-minute 90-minute 180-minute 240-minute Tennessee U.S.

Population (2000) 76,594 504,034 1,971,609 7,163,005 15,907,469 5,689,283 281,421,906

Manchester Area Hotels

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

11 1 Ambassador Inn 153

Source: Manchester Travel Guide, 2016; TripAdvisor, 2016

Manchester Area Restaurants

LOCAL MARKET ANALYSIS

Source: Esri, 2016

Feasibility Study of a Potential New State Fairgrounds

Key Facility City, State

Feasibility Study of a Potential New State Fairgrounds

COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Facility City, State

Average 212 407 407 0 199 6,688 3,562

Feasibility Study of a Potential New State Fairgrounds

COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Largest

Agricenter International 12 2 1 1 6 2 50,093 96,197

The Fairgrounds Nashville 16 2 0 1 6 7 28,800 113,000

Feasibility Study of a Potential New State Fairgrounds

COMPETITIVE FACILITIES Facility City, State