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You are on page 1of 6

Stat 101 Midterm will be held during the regular class time and location on

Thursday: it starts at approximately 10:07 and runs for 83 min.

Its closed-book. You are allowed one 8.5x11 page or notes(front-

and-back OK) No laptops or cell phones, Remember to bring a

calculator.

Midterm I Review

It covers Units 15 and the material on HWs 1-4. There are

Units 1-5 practice problems and practice exam on the course website.

Be sure to briefly explain your answers and show calculations.

Office Hours Tues-Thurs (no sections or OHs otherwise):

Tues: 11:30am-12:30pm in SC-300b (Kevin)

Wed: 11am-1pm in SC-107 (Joseph), 1-3pm in SC-300b (Kevin)

Thurs: 9-10am in SC-300b (Kevin)

2

(Univariate)

Sampling and Measurement (Unit 2)

Surveys and Sampling

Experimental Design and Randomization

Histograms and Boxplots

Descriptive Statistics (Unit 3) Measures of Center/Location

Univariate Mean, Median, Mode, Quantiles

Bivariate

Probability & Random Variables (Unit 4 - Part I)

Measures of Spread

Binomial Random Variables Range, IQR, Variance/Standard Deviation

Normal Distribution Measures of Shape

Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem

Skewness

Inference for a Population Mean (Unit 5)

Confidence Intervals Outliers (1.5*IQR Rule)

Hypothesis Tests

Power and Sample Size Calculations

3

4

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10/8/2013

Descriptive Statistics

Descriptive Statistics (Bivariate)

(Bivariate)

Tables (Two-way tables)

Regression: y^ = a + b*x

e = y y^

R2: proportion of the total variability in the y-variable

that can be predicted by using the x-variable.

(Experiments) (Surveys)

Elements

Principles

Target Population (and a parameter), the sample (and a statistic)

Control, Replication, Randomization leads to

Types

causal associations

SRS (Randomly select Harvard students)

Elements

Stratified (Randomly select three student from each Harvard house)

Treatments, response Bias

Types Selection (systematic bias in those that were chosen to be sampled)

Simple Randomized Experiment Response (systematic bias in the way that people responded to the

Stratified/Blocked, Matched Pairs questions, for example: bad wording or pressure from the

investigator)

Not always feasible (ethically, etc)

Non-response (systematic bias in the way that people did not respond

to the survey)

7 8

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10/8/2013

Sample Space, Outcomes Discrete

Events

Probability distribution function (sum to one)

Union, Intersection, Disjoint, Complement

Usually defined in tabular form

Probability (only on events)

Rules (Unions & Intersections)

Calculating the mean, variance & sd

Conditional Probability: X = E(X) = [x*P(X = x)]

Defintion: P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B) 2X = E((X- X)2) = [(x- X)2*P(X = x)]

Independence Continuous

Check: P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B)

or P(A|B) = P(A) Probability density function

Bayes Rule (often, its just easier using a 2x2 table) Probabilities represented by areas

P ( B | A) P ( A) Note: P(X = x) = 0 for continuous variables

P( A | B)

P ( B | A) P ( A) P ( B | AC ) P ( AC )

9 10

Think Coin Flips (counting heads)

X ~ N(,) dichotomous, n fixed, fixed, independent trials

Standardize to find probabilities

in Table A: Shorthand: X ~ Bin(n, )

Z

E(X) = n, Var(X) = n(1 )

= X/n

12

3

10/8/2013

(Normal approximation to the binomial) the Central Limit Theorem

Law of Large Numbers

Let X ~ Bin(n, ). Then approximately:

X will have mean equal to the individual observations

0.08

mean (), and its variance will shrink in comparison

X ~ N n , n (1 )

E( X ) =

(1 ) Var(X ) = 2/n

0.06

~ N ,

n Central Limit Theorem

States that all sample means ( X ) and sums of RVs will

0.04

This holds only if: be normally distributed, no matter what the original

n 10 distribution (assuming n is large)

0.02

n(1 ) 10

Remember: X ~ N X , X

n

0.00

14

(One-Sample for Means , unknown) Calculating Power (2 steps)

One sample t-test for CI for one sample 1) Determine the rejection region for x under Ho

x 0 s 2) Calculate the probability of x falling in that rejection

t x t df* n 1 region when Ha is true

s/ n n Power increases with:

We assume Xi ~ N(,) & independent larger sample size, n

smaller ,

t ~ t(df = n 1) [when null hypothesis is true]

further distance between A and 0

Assume normal if n is small, OK without extreme outliers

when n is large (n > 15) Calculating Sample Size from a Desired Margin of Error (m)

Example: z * ( )

2

n

A sample of 5 stat 101 students were found to have slept 5.8 hours m

the night before their final, with a standard deviation of 2.0. Is this

significantly lower than the recommended minimum of 7.5 hours?

4

10/8/2013

The following are a collection of unrelated quick problems. Briefly justify c) If females of a certain species of lizard always mate with males that are

your answer for each problem. 0.75 years younger than they are, what would the correlation

coefficient between the ages of these male and female lizards be?

a) Suppose that A and B are two disjoint events within the same sample Circle the right answer and provide justification.

space. In addition, let P(A) = 1/8 and P(B) = 1/4. Are events A and B

independent? Explain. i) 0.75 iv) 1

ii) -0.75 v) -1

iii) 0 vi) Not enough information to tell

b) Suppose a particular outcome from a random event has a probability of

0.02. Which of the following statements represent correct interpretations of

this probability? Circle the right answer and provide justification.

d) Consider the annual salaries of mutual fund managers in the Boston

i) The outcome will never happen. area. The mean salary is $450,000 and the median salary is $380,000.

ii) The outcome will happen two times out of every 100 trials, for Circle the correct answer below. The probability that the salary of a

certain. randomly selected mutual fund manager from the Boston area is larger

iii) The outcome will happen two times out of every 100 trials, on the than the mean of $450,000 is:

average. i) > 0.5 iii) = 0.5

iv) The outcome could happen, or it couldn't, the chances of either ii) < 0.5 iv) Cannot be determined

result are the same.

17 18

Practice Problem #2

Cancer is the #2 cause of death in the United States, yet is not

nearly as deadly in other parts of the world. An investigator

looks at the cancer mortality rate (per 1,000 person-years) vs.

Population Growth Rate per year (in percent) for 171

countries. She starts by looking at the scatterplot and some

summary statistics from her data:

cancer mortality rate for US (the true cancer mort. rate is 123.8)?

19

5

10/8/2013

Practice Problem #3

Practice Problem #2 (cont.) Not everybody likes Britney Spears. In fact, an internet poll run by

the Rolling Stones magazine showed that 66% of college-aged men

c) What percentage of total variability in cancer said they liked Britney, while 30% of college-aged women like her.

mortality rate can be predicted using growth rate?

a) Imagine Harvard, made up of 52% women, is hosting a Britney

Spears concert. Given that only fans of Britney attend the concert,

d) The investigator believes cancer mortality rates what is the probability that the person sitting next to you at the

concert is a woman?

could be lowered if countries encouraged more

baby-making and more immigration. Briefly

explain why this statement may not be correct.

b) A line at the snack bar for the concert has10 people (all Brit-fans).

What is the probability that exactly 5 of these students are women?

21 22

A friend of yours is curious to see how confident Harvard students are in

c) There is a line of 100 students to get into the concert (all of their look. He asks a random sample of n = 130 Harvard students what

whom are Brit-fans). What is the probability that the percent of Harvard students do you believe I better looking than you?

majority of them are women? This sample had a mean of 30.8% and a standard deviation of 24.2%.

***Note: if people had realistic judgments about themselves, the mean

in the population should be 50%.

percent of students that Harvard students think they are better looking

than.

d) The internet poll run by the Rolling Stones reported that 66%

of all college-aged men like Britney Spears? Why could this b) Based on your confidence interval in part (a), would you expect a

be a mistake? hypothesis test to determine whether H0: = 50 to be rejected based

on a twosided test?

23 24

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