MATH& 146

Lesson 1
Appendix A.1
Defining Probability

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 Probability
Probability measures the
uncertainty that is associated
with the outcomes of a
particular random process, a
planned operation carried out
under controlled conditions.
Flipping coins or rolling dice
are examples of random
processes.

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 Outcomes
The diagram below shows the four ways two coins
could fall. We say that each of these four
possibilities is a different outcome of the coin toss.
Outcomes are the most basic possible results of a
random process.

H H H T

T H T T
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 Events
An event describes one or more possible
outcomes that all have the same property of
interest, such as the number of heads. Notice the
graph below shows four outcomes and three
events. The event of one head occurs twice.

One Head
Two Heads

No Heads

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 Probability
Probability is a measure of how likely a random
event can occur.
Probabilities are always between 0 and 1, where a
0 means the event is impossible and a 1 means
the event is certain to be true.

0 0.17 0.5 1

Winning Rolling a "4" Heads with My dog

the lottery with a die toss a coin flip loves me

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 Probability
The probability that an event A can happen is the
number of possible ways it can happen divided by
the overall total, or

number of outcomes in A
P A
total number of outcomes

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 Example 1
Suppose you roll one die.

Find the following probabilities.

a) P(5)
b) P(3 or 6)
c) P(anything except 2)
d) P(8 or more)
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 Example 2
Suppose you roll two dice. What is the probability
of rolling a sum of 7?

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 Estimating Probability
Probabilities, p, can be estimated with sample
proportions, p.

For example, suppose you flip a coin 100 times

and got 54 heads. Then the probability of a head
is approximately

54
p
100

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 Example 3
Roll a pair of dice ten times. Count how many
times the sum of the dice add up to 7.
Find the probability of rolling a sum of 7 and
compare it to the theoretical probability Example 2.

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 Example 4
What is the probability of getting a "6" at least
three times with ten rolls of a die.

Note: The actual probability (0.2248) is beyond

the scope of this course. However, we can still
estimate this probability. Roll one die ten times
and count how many times the number "6"
occurred. Then we can combine our results to
answer the question.

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 The Law of Large Numbers
The Law of Large Numbers states that assuming
that our sampling is representative of the
population, then the sample proportions from
larger samples tend to be more accurate than the
sample proportions from smaller samples.

Proportion of Sevens with Two Dice

1
6

12
Number of Rolls
 Disjoint Events
When two events cannot occur at the same time,
they are said to be disjoint, or mutually
exclusive. For example, if we flip a coin then the
events for heads and tails do not overlap because
a coin cannot land both heads and tails at the
same time.

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 Addition Rule (Disjoint)
Two events are disjoint if they cannot occur
together. If A and B are disjoint events, then the
probability that either A or B occurs is

P A OR B P A P B

This principle can be extended to any number of

disjoint events. For example, the probability that
either event A, event B, or event C occurs is
P A OR B OR C P A P B P C

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 Example 5
Suppose you roll two dice. What is the probability
of rolling either a sum of either 7 or 11?

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 Example 6
Suppose one card is drawn from a well-shuffled
standard deck of cards. Find the probability that
the card drawn is either a jack or a ten.

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 General Addition Rule
Suppose you want to know the probability of
drawing either a queen or a club from a standard
deck. Because there are 4 queens in the deck, the
probability of drawing a queen is 4/52.

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 General Addition Rule
Likewise, because there are 13 clubs in the deck,
the probability of drawing a club is 13/52.

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 General Addition Rule
It would seem, then, that the probability of a queen
or club would be

4 13 17

52 52 52

However, this is not correct.

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 General Addition Rule
The probability of drawing a queen or a club is
16/52. You can see this result from the sample
space below, which shows 16 cards (out of 52
total) that are either a queen or a club (or both).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14

15

16
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 General Addition Rule
If we simply add the individual probabilities, the
queen of clubs gets counted twice (once as a
queen and once as a club).

We can correct the calculation by subtracting the

double-counted probability of drawing the queen of
clubs, which is 1/52 (because the queen of clubs is
just 1 of the 52 cards in the deck).

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 General Addition Rule
This gives us

P queen OR club P queen P club P queen of clubs

4 13 1

52 52 52

16

52

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 General Addition Rule
Two events are overlapping if they can occur
together.

If A and B are overlapping events, the probability

that either A or B occurs is

P A OR B P A P B P A AND B

That is, we add the probabilities of each event

occurring, then subtract the overlap probability.
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 Example 7
In its monthly report, the local animal rescue
shelter states that it currently has 24 dogs and 18
cats available for adoption, with 8 of the dogs and
6 of the cats male. Find each of the following
probabilities if an animal is selected at random,
a) P(dog)
b) P(female)
c) P(dog AND female)
d) P(dog OR female)
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