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1. Market Trends & Competitive
Landscape Table of Contents
5G STRATEGIES
Emerging Ecosystems, Opportunities & Forecasts 2014-2019
5G MARKET STRATEGIES Market Trends & Competitive Landscape 2015-2025
1
Contents
Figure 2.2: 5G Requirements A Snapshot ....................................................... 17
1. LTE Evolution & Road to 5G 2.2.1 The 5G Standard Key Requisites ........................................... 17
Figure 2.3: Key 5G Performance Requirements ................................................. 18
1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................6
Figure 1.1: Cellular Network Evolution Snapshot .................................................. 6 2.2.2 5G Spectrum Requirements ...................................................... 19
Figure 2.4: Radio Frequency Bands Snapshot ................................................... 20
1.2 Defining 4G .......................................................................................7
i. Available 4G Spectrum and Possible 5G Spectrum Analysis ........................... 20
1.2.1 LTE & LTE-A ..................................................................................7
Figure 2.5: 4G Spectrum Bands Used by Commercially Launched Networks,
1.2.2 Evolution towards LTE-U & LAA .................................................8 2014 .................................................................................................................. 20
Figure 1.2: LTE-U Commercialisation ................................................................... 9 Figure 2.6: Possible 5G Spectrum Frequency Bands ......................................... 21
i. LTE-U Deployments .......................................................................................... 9 Figure 2.7: Preliminary Bands Identified by Ofcom ............................................. 22
ii. Case Study: LTE-U Forum ................................................................................ 9 iii. High Frequency Spectrum Band Challenges ................................................. 23
1.3 4G LTE Market Status ....................................................................10 Figure 2.8: mmWave Frequency Band Challenges Intel .................................. 23
Figure 1.3: Number of Commercial LTE Network Launches 2009-2015e ............ 10 vi. Spectrum Refarming...................................................................................... 24
1.4 4G LTE-A Market Update ...............................................................11 2.2.3 High Frequency Band 5G Spectrum Auction Cost Analysis .. 25
i. 4G Spectrum Cost Analysis............................................................................. 25
Figure 1.4: Number of Commercial LTE-A Network Launches 2014-2016e ........ 12
Figure 2.9: 4G Spectrum Auction Cost Analysis Selected Markets .................. 26
1.5 LTE-U Market Update.....................................................................12
ii. 5G Spectrum Cost Analysis ............................................................................ 26
i. LTE-U Future & Challenges ............................................................................. 12
Figure & Table 2.10: Spectrum Cost Estimate & Comparison 4G vs 5G .......... 26
2. Defining the 5G Wireless Ecosystem Figure 2.11: 5G Cumulative Operator Billed Revenue per Annum ($m) vs
Combined Spectrum Cost ($m) Comparison US, West Europe, & South
2.1 Introduction ....................................................................................15 Korea) ................................................................................................................ 27
2.1.2 ITU Plan, Timeline & Deliverables for 5G..................................16 iv. Case Study: NTT DOCOMO Phantom Cell.................................................... 30
2.3.1 5G & the Rise of the Internet of Things ....................................32 iv. Ericsson ........................................................................................................ 45
Figure 2.13: Juniper Strategy Quadrant: 5G & the Internet of Things .................. 33 3.1.4 Academic Institutions ................................................................ 45
2.3.2 Monetising 5G: ARPU vs ARPC .................................................34 i. New York University Wireless ......................................................................... 45
Figure 3.2: Mobile Data Growth Drivers (Y-o-Y % Growth) 2013-2014 ............... 50
3. Market Dynamics: Drivers, Hurdles & Current
Figure 3.3: Data Growth Factors ........................................................................ 51
Activities
Figure 3.4: Number of Connected IoT Devices Installed Base (m) 2015-2020 .... 53
3.1 Current Market Status ...................................................................41
3.3 Market Constraints ........................................................................ 54
3.1.1 Regulators & Standards Bodies ................................................41
Figure 3.5: 5G Technology Drivers Snapshot ..................................................... 56
i. ITU (International Telecommunications Union) ................................................ 41
Figure 3.6: Global MNO Service Revenues vs Capex/Opex ($bn) 2013-2019 .... 58
ii. Ofcom ............................................................................................................. 41
3.3.7 Market Drivers, Trends & Constraints Summary..................... 61
iii. FCC (Federal Communications Commission) ................................................. 41
Figure 3.7: 5G Market Trends, Drivers & Constraints Summary ......................... 61
iv. Case Study: GSMA (Groupe Speciale Mobile Association) ............................ 42
3.1.2 Mobile Operators & Service Providers .....................................43 4. Competitive Landscape & Vendor Analysis
i. NTT DOCOMO ................................................................................................ 43
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................... 63
ii. SK Telecom .................................................................................................... 43
4.2 Vendor Analysis ............................................................................ 63
iii. Case Study: EE .............................................................................................. 43
4.2.1 Vendor Assessment Criteria ..................................................... 63
iv. Vodafone ....................................................................................................... 44
Table 4.1: Vendor Capability Assessment Factors ............................................. 64
v. du ................................................................................................................... 44
4.2.2 Limitations and Interpretation ................................................... 65
3.1.3 Vendors........................................................................................44
i. Samsung ......................................................................................................... 44
4.3 Vendor Positioning Matrix Results .............................................. 65
Figure 4.2: 4G & 5G Market Vendor Positioning Matrix ....................................... 66 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 76
Figure 4.3: 4G & 5G Vendor Positioning Matrix Scoring...................................... 67 iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships ............................................................. 76
4.3.2 Vendor Groupings ......................................................................68 iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning ...................................................... 76
i. Summary ......................................................................................................... 68 v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 77
ii. On Track Vendors ........................................................................................... 68 4.5.4 CBNL ............................................................................................ 77
iii. Vendors Exceeding Expectations ................................................................... 69 i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 77
iv. Vendors with Further Potential ....................................................................... 69 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 77
4.4 5G Industry Movers & Shakers .....................................................70 iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partners .................................................................... 77
4.5 Player Profiles ................................................................................72 iv. Products & Services Market Positioning ..................................................... 78
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships .............................................................. 72 Figure 4.7: Ericsson Financial Year Snapshot (SEK bn) 2013-2014 ................... 79
iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning ....................................................... 72 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 79
Figure 4.4: Airvanas Femtocell AP ..................................................................... 73 iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships ............................................................. 79
v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 73 Figure 4.8: Ericsson Regional Financial Performance (%) 2014 ...................... 79
Figure 4.5: Alcatel-Lucent Financial Performance Snapshot 2012-2014 ............. 74 v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 81
iv. Products & Services - Market Positioning ....................................................... 74 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 81
v. Junipers View: Key Strengths and Strategic Development Opportunities ....... 75 Figure 4.10: Fujitsu Financial Performance 2012-2014 - Snapshot .................... 82
Figure 4.6: Alcatel-Lucent 4G-5G Vision ............................................................. 75 iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships ............................................................. 82
4.5.8 NEC ..............................................................................................85 Figure 4.19: Samsung Financial Performance Snapshot 2012-2014 .................. 92
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 85 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 92
Figure 4.13: NEC Financial Snapshot 2013-2014 ............................................... 85 iii. Key Clients & Partnerships ............................................................................ 92
ii. Geographical Spread ...................................................................................... 85 iv. Products & Strategies Market Positioning ................................................... 92
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships .............................................................. 85 v. Junipers View: Key Strength & Strategic Development Opportunities ............ 93
iv. Products & Services Market Positioning ...................................................... 85 4.5.12 ZTE ............................................................................................. 94
Figure 4.14: NEC LTE Small Cell Product Portfolio............................................. 86 i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 94
v. Junipers View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development Opportunities ........... 86 ii. Geographic Spread ........................................................................................ 94
4.5.9 Nokia Networks ...........................................................................86 iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partnerships ............................................................. 94
i. Corporate ........................................................................................................ 86 iv. Products & Services Market Positioning ..................................................... 94
Figure 4.15: Nokia Networks Financial Performance Snapshot 2013-2014 ......... 87 Figure 4.20: Proposed Evolution to 5G ZTE .................................................... 95
ii. Geographical Spread ...................................................................................... 87 v. Junipers View: Key Strengths & Strategic Opportunities ................................ 95
iii. Key Clients & Strategic Partners .................................................................... 87
5G STRATEGIES
Emerging Ecosystems, Opportunities & Forecasts 2014-2019
5G MARKET STRATEGIES Market Sizing & Forecasts 2015-2025
1
Contents
Figure 2.1: 4G & 5G Market Forecast Methodology Overview ............................ 16
1.4 LTE-U Market Update.......................................................................9 iii. Far East & China ........................................................................................... 21