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2014

Nano / Microsatellite
Market Assessment

Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)


2014 Nano / Microsatellite Market Assessment

Developed by:

Ms. Elizabeth Buchen


Director, Engineering Economics Group
elizabeth.buchen@sei.aero | 1+770.379.8006

Mr. Dominic DePasquale


Space Ventures Specialist
dominic.depasquale@sei.aero | 1+770.379.8009

Published by:

SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)


Atlanta, GA

Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) 2


2013
SpaceWorks 2013 Projection estimated 93 nano/
microsatellites would launch globally in 2013; 92 nano/
microsatellites actually launched, an increase of 269% over
2012

2014+
SpaceWorks 2014 Projection reflects a significant increase in
the quantity of future nano/microsatellites needing a launch.
This years projection is 2-3 times higher than our 2013
projection in the later years (2017 2020), which is driven by
the emergence and continued growth of commercial players in
the 1-50 kg satellite market.

Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) 3


2014 Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment Overview
The data source for this study is the SpaceWorks Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB)
The LDDB is an extensive database of all known historical (2000 2013) and future (2014+) satellite
projects with masses between 0 kg and 10,000+ kg
Currently 650 future (2014 2016) nano/microsatellites (1 50 kg) in the LDDB (focus of this study)
Currently 48 future (2014+) picosatellites (< 1 kg) in the LDDB (not included in this study)

SpaceWorks has projected global launch demand in the nano/microsatellite market according to a
Gompertz logistic curve from 2014 to the year 2020
Note that SpaceWorks places no value judgment on whether developers will successfully meet
their announced launch date or not

The nano/microsatellite projection was developed from a combination of two data sets
Publicly announced nano/microsatellite projects and programs
Quantitative and qualitative adjustments to account for the expected sustainment of current projects and
programs (e.g. follow-on to EDSN, CubeSat Launch Initiative), as well as the continued emergence and
growth of numerous existing commercial companies

Projections indicate substantial growth in nano/microsatellite launches, with an estimated range of 410 to
543 nano/microsatellites (1-50 kg) that will need launches globally in 2020 (compared to 92 in 2013)

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Nano/Microsatellite Definitions and Terminology
Many nanosatellites are based on the
CubeSat standard
Developed in by California Polytechnic State
University and Stanford University in 1999
Consists of any number of 10 cm x 10 cm x 10
cm units
Aalborg Universitys
Each unit, or U, usually has a volume of AAUSAT4 CubeSat
exactly one liter
Each U has a mass close to 1 kg and not to
Satellite Class Mass Range
exceed 1.33 kg (e.g. a 3U CubeSat has mass
between 3 and 4 kg) Femtosatellite 10 100 g

Picosatellite < 1 kg
This study limits the upper end of microsatellite
mass to 50 kg given the relative large amount Nanosatellite 1 10 kg
of satellite development activity in the 1-50 kg Scope of this study 1 50 kg
range by comparison to the 50-100 kg range.
Microsatellite 10 100 kg

Small Satellite 100 500 kg

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Nano/Microsatellite Applications and Associated Examples

Credit: http://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/small_spacecraft/phonesat.html Credit: University of Florida Credit: Planet Labs

Scientific Research Technology Earth Observation


Phonesat 1.0 SwampSat Dove 2
Mass: 1 kg Mass: 1.2 kg Mass: 5.5 kg
Launched: 4/2013 Launched: 11/2013 Launched: 4/2013

Credit: http://www.dk3wn.info/sat/afu/sat_ardusat.shtml Credit: USAF/SMC

Education Military Application Astronomy


ArduSat SENSE-1 BRITE-PL
Mass: 1 kg Mass: 5 kg Mass: 7 kg
Launched: 8/2013 Launched: 11/2013 Launched: 11/2013

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Nano/Microsatellite Launch History and Projection (1 - 50 kg)
Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate
between 2,000 and 2,750 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through 2020

600

Full Market Potential 543


500
SpaceWorks Projection 521
Historical Launches
487
400 436
410
Number of Satellites

380
300 344
(1-50 kg)

302

200

100

0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020
2014

Calendar Year
The Full Market Potential dataset is a combination of publically announced launch intentions, market research, and qualitative/quantitative assessments to account for future activities and programs.
The SpaceWorks Projection dataset reflects SpaceWorks expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.

* Please see End Notes 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6.

Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) 7


Nano/Microsatellite Future Program Summary (1 50 kg)
Large Program Breakdown for Announced Future Satellites 700

Name of Program/ Launched Total NSF


Timeframe Organization Country Mass (kg) EDSN
Satellite Constellation to Date Planned
600 CSLI Existing
NSF Geospace &
Atmospheric CubeSat
2010-2015 NSF USA 1-3 7 13 Large
SeeMe Programs,
QB50 25%
NASA EDSN 2013-2014 NASA ARC USA 3 0 8 500
HUMSAT

NASA CubeSat
2011-2017 NASA USA 1-12 24 115
Launch Initiative

Number of Satellites
400

(1-50 kg)
SeeMe Payloads 2016 DARPA USA 12 0 6
Commercial
Von Karman 300 (USA)
QB50 2015 Institute / Various 2 0 52
Various Other
University of
Programs,
HUMSAT 2013-2014 Various 1 0 9 75%
Vigo / Various 200

Other
(USA)
Existing large programs will comprise only 25% of future
100
nano/microsatellites (compared to 65% in 2013) due to Other
(Foreign)
worldwide growth in the civil and commercial sectors

* Assumes two NSF Geospace & Atmospheric CubeSat satellites selected in 2014. NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative total includes the sixteen 0
missions chosen in February 2014 (in response to August 2013 Announcement of Opportunity) and the timeframe listed is based on when the SpaceWorks Projection
already selected CubeSats are scheduled to launch. QB50 total includes two precursor satellites.
Please see End Notes 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7.
(2014 2016)

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Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Sector (1 50 kg)
100%

Civil
90%
Government
224
80% Commercial
Defense/Intelligence
70%
88
38
Number of Satellites

60%

50%

40% Commercial sector


366
will contribute
30%
56% of future nano/
26
microsatellites
20%

10%
10
3 22
0%
Historical SpaceWorks Projection
(2009 2013) (2014 2016)

The civil sector remains strong, contributing over one third of future nano/microsatellites,
but it will see reductions compared to 2009-2013 when the sector contributed 63%
* Please see End Notes 2, 6, 7, and 8.

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Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Purpose (1 50 kg)
Over half of future nano/microsatellites will be used for
Earth observation and remote sensing purposes (compared to 12% from 2009 to 2013)
Earth Observation/
Remote Sensing Reconnaissance Earth Observation/
Reconnaissance Remote Sensing
Scientific
12%
2% 2%
21%
52%

20% SpaceWorks
Historical Projection
(2009 2013)
10%
(2014 - 2016)

9%
55%
Technology
17%
Technology
Communications

Total: 202 Total: 650 Communications Scientific

A smaller proportion of technology development/demonstration nano/microsatellites


will be built in the next few years (20% vs. 55% from 2009 to 2013)
* Please see End Notes 2, 6, and 7.

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Nanosatellite Size Trends (1 - 10 kg)
1U (1 kg) CubeSats, while still immensely popular, will comprise less of the market in the
future (35% of future nanosatellites compared to 47% from 2009 to 2013)

Percentage Contribution
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

1 kg 2 kg 3 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg

Historical
(2009 2013)
3%

SpaceWorks
Projection 25%
(2014 2016)

1 kg 2 kg 3 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg

25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly popular 6 kg mass class
(compared to only 3% from 2009 to 2013)

* Please see End Notes 2, 6, 7, and 9.

Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) 11


Historical Nano/Microsatellites Launched: 2000 - 2013 (1 - 50 kg)

100

90 1 10 kg
11 50 kg
80

70
Significant growth
Number of Satellites

60 in the 1-10 kg
50 mass range
40

30

20

10

0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Calendar Year

A 330% increase in attempted nanosatellite (1-10 kg) deliveries in 2013,


compared to 2012, shows signs of an emerging and growing launch market

* Please see End Notes 1 and 2.

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Historical Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Launch Vehicle (2000 - 2013)
Launch Vehicles: 2000-2013 for Launch Vehicles: 2000-2013 for
1-10 kg Satellite Class 11-50 kg Satellite Class
No. of No. of Percentage of No. of No. of Percentage of
Launch Vehicle Launch Vehicle
Satellites Launches Satellites Launched Satellites Launches Satellites Launched
Kosmos-3M 50 6 20% Kosmos-3M 25 9 24%
Dnepr-1 34 4 14% Dnepr-1 9 2 9%
Minotaur I 34 4 14% H-2 9 6 9%
PSLV 21 6 9% Minotaur I 9 2 9%
H-2 18 5 7% PSLV 8 6 8%
Space Shuttle 12 6 5% Minotaur IV 7 5 7%
Falcon 9 11 2 4% Safir 6 6 6%
Soyuz 9 5 4% Soyuz 6 6 6%
Delta II 8 3 3% Long March 5 5 5%
Long March 7 4 3% Other 5 5 4%
Minotaur IV 8 1 3% Pegasus-XL 3 1 3%
Vega 8 2 3% Space Shuttle 3 2 3%
Other 8 5 3% Delta IV Heavy 2 1 2%
Antares 4 1 2% KT-1 2 2 2%
Atlas V 5 2 2% Rokot-KM 2 2 2%
Rokot-KM 6 1 2% Atlas V 1 1 1%
Falcon 1 2 1 1% Delta II 1 1 1%
M-5 (2) 2 2 1% Falcon 1 1 1 1%
Falcon 9 1 1 1%

Low cost piggy-back opportunities have historically attracted


small satellite payloads to international launch vehicles

* Please see End Note 2.

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Emergence of Commercial Companies: 2013 Case Study
SpaceWorks released its annual nano/microsatellite Commercial Company Satellite Class Satellite Application

projections in February of 2013 Dauria Aerospace Nano

According to the projection, 93 satellites (1-50 kg) Deep Space Industries Nano
were planning to launch in 2013
GeoOptics, Inc. Micro
92 satellites (1-50 kg) actually launched in 2013
ISIS Nano/Micro
Based on the announced launch data alone, 2014
Outernet (MDIF) Nano
will see a 52% increase in nano/microsatellites
NanoSatisfi Nano
launched compared to 2013
Commercial companies will contribute over one- Planet Labs Nano

fourth of all nano/microsatellites launched in 2014 Planetary Resources, Inc. Nano/Micro

This is a significant increase from 2013, where the SpaceQuest, Ltd. Micro
commercial sector contributed only 11% Earth Obs./ Data Asteroid Ship
The continued emergence and growth of commercial Remote Sensing Collection Exploration Tracking

companies (see table) will result in an even greater increase in 2015, with the sector contributing 60% of all nano/
microsatellites launched
Many companies have publicly revealed their near-term intentions regarding future launches of nano/
microsatellites and the satellites wide spectrum of revenue generating applications
Other companies have been more reserved, revealing only small details of their plans

Precise quantities aside, strong evidence suggests the commercial sector will
have a meaningful and enduring impact on the nano/microsatellite industry
* Please see End Notes 2, 4, 6, 7, and 10.

Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) 14


2014 Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment Conclusions
The nano/microsatellite market is growing tremendously with the continued use of the CubeSat standard,
microelectronics and other technology development, government programs, and furthering of applications

The civil sector remains strong, but the eruption of commercial companies and start-up activities will
continue to influence the nano/microsatellite market; future launches suggest this trend will continue

Projections based on both announced and anticipated plans of developers indicate 2,000 2,750 nano/
microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through 2020

Nano/Microsatellite CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate):


Historical average growth of 37.2% per year over the last 4 years (2009 2013)
SpaceWorks Projection Dataset shows average growth of 23.8% per year over the next 6 years (2014 2020)

While 1U (1 kg) CubeSats are still widely used, 25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly
popular 6 kg mass class

Applications for nano/microsatellites are diversifying, with increased use in the future for Earth observation and
remote sensing missions

* Please see End Notes 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7.

Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) 15


Custom analyses and more detailed assessments are
available from SpaceWorks for nano/microsatellites
and larger satellite classes

For additional information or to request a quote,


please contact:

Ms. Elizabeth Buchen


Director, Engineering Economics Group
1+770.379.8006
elizabeth.buchen@sei.aero

Copyright 2014, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI) 16


End Notes
1. The number of satellites may not equal the number of launches since many small satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite co-
manifested on a particular launch vehicle). Historical data includes failed launch attempts.
2. The data used throughout this presentation (both historical and future) may not represent all global nano/microsatellite activities.
3. All NSF satellites thus far have launched through the NASA CSLI. In the table, these historical NSF satellites are included in both the count of
number launched for NSF and the count for CSLI (double counted in this sense). The bar graph of future launches shows only those NSF satellites
that expected, but currently not manifested (thus they are appropriately single counted for future launches).
4. The SpaceWorks Projection and Full Market Potential datasets include some known nano/microsatellite programs for which a specific launch date
has not been announced. The satellites belonging to these programs are distributed across the period (date range) for launches according to the
announced program objectives
5. Future projections from 2017-2020 are determined by Gompertz logistic curve best fit regression with market saturation point (asymptote for
number of satellites) set at 525 nano/microsatellites in a year for the SpaceWorks Projection dataset and 580 for the Full Market Potential dataset.
6. The Full Market Potential dataset contains all currently known past and future nano/microsatellites from the SpaceWorks LDDB, with the addition of
an inflating factor for known unknowns plus assumed sustainment of certain current projects and programs (e.g. follow-on to NASA Ames EDSN,
CubeSat Launch Initiative, DARPA SeeMe) and the continued emergence and growth of numerous existing commercial companies. The
SpaceWorks Projection dataset reflects SpaceWorks expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.
7. These graphs are based on the SpaceWorks Projection dataset only, and do not include the additional satellites contained in the Full Market
Potential dataset.
8. By some traditional definitions of space industrial sectors, non-defense government space activities are a subsector of the civil sector. Here we
break out non-defense government activities into a separate sector. Government refers to those nano/microsatellite development efforts that occur
within/by the government agency or organization (e.g. NASA, JAXA). Civil refers to all other non-defense development activities (e.g. universities,
federally funded research institutions), though the funding source may be a government agency.
9. Nanosatellites are binned by rounding mass to the nearest whole number. Picosatellites less than 1 kg are not included.
10. Satellite application images are credited to the following websites: http://sweetclipart.com/colorable-earth-line-art-709,
http://www.clker.com/clipart-binary-data.html, http://hasloo.com/freecliparts/?p=520, http://bestclipartblog.com/24-ship-clip-art.html.

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1040 Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 | Atlanta, GA 30338 USA | +1.770.379.8000

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