PERT - CPM

By
Naveed I. Salman

naveedis@hotmail.com, 1
03215168779
 Quote

A dream is just a dream. A goal is a

dream with a plan and a deadline.
- Harvey Mackay

2
 Project Management

What is a project?
A project is a series of activities
directed toward the accomplishment
of a desired objective.

3
 Project Management
Characteristics of Projects
Unique, one-time operations
Involve a large number of activities that must be planned and
coordinated
Long time-horizon or critical time constraints
Goals of meeting completion deadlines and budgets
Examples
Building a house
Planning a meeting
Introducing a new product

4
 Project Scheduling
Management
Project scheduling is concerned with the
techniques that can be employed to manage
the activities that need to be undertaken
during the development of a project.
Scheduling is carried out in advance of the
project commencing and involves:
1. identifying the tasks that need to be carried out;
2. estimating how long they will take;
3. allocating resources (mainly personnel);
4. scheduling when the tasks will occur.

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 Project Scheduling
Management
Once the project is underway control needs to be
exerted to ensure that the plan continues to represent
the best prediction of what will occur in the future:
based on what occurs during the development;
often necessitates revision of the plan.

Effective project planning will help to ensure that the

systems are delivered:
within cost;
within the time constraint;

to a specific standard of quality.

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 Project Management Tools

Older simpler - Gantt Chart

More modern CPM/PERT
Newest Microsoft Project

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 Gantt Chart
Days After Start
Activity Start 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Foundation
Framing
Plumbing
Electrical
Wall Board
Siding
Paint Interior
Paint Exterior
Fixtures
Start 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Days After Start
8
 Advantages of Gantt
1. Easy to understand
2. Easy to construct

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 Project Management
PERT - Project Evaluation and Review
Technique

CPM - Critical Path Method

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 PERT/CPM
PERT
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
Developed by U.S. Navy for Polaris missile project
Developed to handle uncertain activity times

CPM
Critical Path Method
Developed by Du Pont & Remington Rand
Developed for industrial projects for which activity times generally
were known
Todays project management software packages
have combined the best features of both
approaches.

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 Project Management PERT/CPM

In projects that are non-repetitive information

necessary for control is sparse, non-existent
or only marginally relevant.
Project control then requires:
A logical methodology showing the required tasks
and the interrelationships of these tasks
Estimation of the resources required for each
activity/step
Time
Money
Personnel
Equipment
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 PERT/CPM Type Projects
Construction
Engineering
Software Development
Equipment Cut-over
Anything with many interdependent
activities/steps

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 Network Diagram
Activities

Events

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 ACTIVITIES
Activities are shown as lines or arrows

Activities require time and other

recourses

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 Activities
Some may be executed simultaneously
DO THIS

AND AT THE SAME TIME DO THAT

Some cannot be performed until others

are completed

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 Situations in network diagram
B
A A must finish before either B or C can start
C
A
C both A and B must finish before C can start
B
A C both A and C must finish before either of B
B or D can start
D
A B
A must finish before B can start
Dummy both A and C must finish before D can start
C 17
D
 EVENTS

Events or nodes or mileposts or circles

They consume NO time and show
connections between activities
Every PERT/CPM chart has one Start
event and one end event

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 CPM -Critical Path Method
A tool to determine duration based on the
identification of the Critical Path through
the activity network.
Times are known with some high degree
of certainty.
Management can determine the duration
of a project and concentrate efforts on
Critical Path activities.

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 PERT Program Evaluation and
Review Technique
Time are NOT known well (uncertainty)
Statistics used to estimate probability of
finishing within a given time

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The Six Steps Common to PERT & CPM

1. Define the project and identify each activity

2. Develop relationships among the activities.
(Decide which activities must precede and
which must follow others.)
3. Draw the network connecting all of the
activities
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each
activity
5. Compute the longest time path through the
network. This is called the critical path
6. Use the network to help plan, schedule,
monitor, and control the project 21
 Simple CPM Chart

START 1 END
Open Book Read Chapter

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 Calculating times
4
3
4
2

START END

3 4
2

Time for top route = 2 + 4 + 4 + 3 = 13

Time for bottom route = 2 + 3 + 2 + 4 = 11

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 Critical Path
4
3
4
2

START END

3 4
2

Time for top route = 2 + 4 + 4 + 3 = 13

Time for bottom route = 2 + 3 + 2 + 4 = 11
Top is Critical path
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 Slack time
No
SLACK
here 4
3
4
2

START END

3 4
2

Time for top route = 2 + 4 + 4 + 3 = 13

Time for bottom route = 2 + 3 + 2 + 4 = 11
For activities not on Critical path Slack time = 2
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 Slack time
4
3
4
2

START END

B
3 4
2

For activities not on critical path the slack time is extra time
that could be used if necessary
If event B is reached in 6 days is there a significant
problem?
No, not if the cause was the activity that should have taken 3 days took 4
Yes, if the cause was the 2 day activity following start took 3 days

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 Review of PERT/CPM
A project network can be constructed to
model the precedence / order of the
activities and the relationship between
activities.
The Lines of the network represent the
activities.
The Circles of the network show
events.
A critical path for the network is a path
consisting of activities with zero slack. 27
 PERT Activity Times

3 time estimates
Optimistic times (a)


Most-likely time (m)
Pessimistic time (b)
Follow normal distribution
Expected time: t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Variance of times: v = ((b - a) /6) 2

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 Time Estimation
Estimates of Activity Times Activity time is the
elapsed time required for an activity. Estimating
activity times is probably one of PERTs most critical
features.
Managers are reluctant to commit themselves to a
rigid time schedule.
Weather conditions, alone, prompt uncertainties and make it
difficult for the manager to develop a single time estimate.
However, experience has shown that managers are less
reluctant if allowed three different estimates, especially when
they understand PERT and how the concept of three time
estimates is used. PERT, therefore, calls for not one, but
three estimates of every activity time and allows the
manager an opportunity to express his uncertainty about the
possible time range of an activity. 29
 Time Estimation
All three time estimates assume a static level of
resource use. The estimates should be as good as
possible because PERT results depend directly on
them. To obtain accurate estimates is not easy. It will
require research, collaboration with planning team
members, and homework.
Simple guesswork is inadequate.
If some time estimates are mere guesses, the manager will
soon realize that they jeopardize or needlessly extend
the project schedule date. Once the estimator realizes
that his contributions are a small, but vital component of
the PERT system, he will try to steadily improve his
estimates. In short, guesswork will not replace
intelligently derived estimates.

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 Time Estimation

The person most familiar with the operation

and requirements of each activity should
submit the three time estimates. These
should meet the following criteria:
1) Optimistic Time -- the minimum time
period in which the activity can be
accomplished, i.e., the time it would take to
complete it if everything proceeded better
than expected. (labeled a.)

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 Time Estimation
2) Most Likely Time -- the best estimate of the time
period in which the activity can be accomplished, i.e.,
the estimate submitted if one (only) had been
requested. (labeled m.)
3) Pessimistic Time -- the maximum time period it
would take to accomplish the activity, i.e., the time
required if everything went wrong, excluding major
catastrophes. (labeled b.)

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 Time Estimation
It is acceptable to state these estimates
in days, weeks, or months as long as
the measure is used consistently.
Once made, activity time estimates are
firm and should not be changed without
a change in the nature and scope of the
activity or in the level of resources
allocated to it. The following time
relationships must be adhered to: ... a
equal or less than m which is equal or
less then b 33
 Some Important Points
The process is no better than the network and the time
estimates
People do this
Knowledgeable people must determine which activities must
proceed others and the time each activity will require
Some careful estimates are still better than no information

The resulting schedule should be a normal schedule.

A Crash schedule exists when extra resources are added to
reduce time.

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 Advantages of PERT/CPM
Especially useful when scheduling and controlling
large projects.
Straightforward concept and not mathematically
complex.
Graphical networks aid perception of relationships
among project activities.
Critical path & slack time analyses help pinpoint
activities that need to be closely watched.
Project documentation and graphics point out who is
responsible for various activities.
Applicable to a wide variety of projects.
Useful in monitoring schedules and costs.

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 Benefits of CPM/PERT
Useful at many stages of project management
Mathematically simple
Give critical path and slack time
Provide project documentation
Useful in monitoring costs

CPM/PERT can answer the following important

questions:
How long will the entire project take to be completed? What are the
risks involved?
Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project which could
delay the entire project if they were not completed on time?
Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of schedule?
If the project has to be finished earlier than planned, what is the best
way to do this at the least cost? 36
 Sandwich PERT Chart

A. Toast Bread
B. Make an egg omelet
C. Spread butter on toast
D. Spread omelet on toast

1 minute
3 minutes 2 minutes 1 minute
7 minutes

5 minutes

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 Practice Exercise
Activities Pre - Duration in Cost in
Activity Weeks (000) Rs
a - 6 2
b - 8 3
c - 5 5
d b 13 7
e c 9 11
f a 15 9
g a 17 5
h f 9 8
i g 6 4
j d, e 12 6
 Questions / Answers
??

naveedis@hotmail.com, 39
03215168779
 Solution
Critical Path f, 15

g, 17 h, 9
a, 6
i, 6

b, 8
d, 13 j, 12

c, 5
e, 9

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Your Presenter
Naveed I. Salman
M. Sc (Mathematics),
MCS, MIT, M.A.(EPM)

naveedis@hotmail.com
0321 5168 779

41
The End

Thank You

naveedis@hotmail.com, 42
03215168779