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ABSTRACT
The procedures of asset-management have been developed into a central element of
network operation and planning in liberalised electric markets of power supply for the
present. The method of asset management considers all relevant life cycle cost related
to the network equipment and provides strategies for reinvestment, maintenance and
fault elimination. However, the method requires practical information about the
available failure statistic from distribution networks, as well as about the reliability
evaluation of equipment installed in distribution network. For the quantitative
evaluation we collect failure record data of distribution networks in the special failure
statistic. Furthermore, this paper represents the first attempt at modeling the
component reliability for representative electrical components due to electrical stress,
mechanical stress, temperature and time, which takes general aging mechanisms of
insulating materials into consideration. Thus the proposed models provide reliability
estimates, e.g. failure probability and failure rate for distribution systems. These
models can be not only parameterized with a great deal of statistical data but also
determined by aging tests and breakdown tests being available for the probabilistic
assessment. Our results imply that the assessment approach for component reliability
will motivate a need for reasonable and accurate data at an early decision-making
stage in future deregulation of electric power market.
Index Terms Component reliability, distribution network, electrical component,
evaluation approach, failure statistic, modeling.
The aging phenomena and aging process of typical Table 1. The failure statistic [1]
insulating materials have been extensively detected under test electrical mechanical random
or working conditions [2-7]. However, most of these studies component failure location
failure failure failure
have been performed at the experimental level, only overhead
conductor (67%) 3% 64 % 33 %
considering specific failure mechanisms of insulating line
paper-cable (26%) 60 % 1% 39 %
materials. Moreover, they are performed in a fixed case
cable VPE-cable (16%) 35 % 1% 64 %
without any knowledge of the target application. Thus, sparse system joint (21%) 93 % 2% 5%
analysis of the experiment would produce incomplete aging termination (14%) 96 % 1% 3%
behaviors of electrical components for the distribution secondary
housing(28%) 1% 86 % 13 %
D-transformer (21%) 32 % 48 % 20 %
networks. substation
interrupter (20%) 48 % 41 % 11 %
To the best of our knowledge, this paper represents the circuit-breaker (37%) 9% 85 % 6%
primary evaluation of the historical failure data from T-transformer (25%) 20 % 67 % 13 %
switchgear
distribution networks. Subsequently we develop a reliability station
model of component by coupling the life model with the disconnector (14%) 4% 94 % 2%
probabilistic failure model. Therefore, our work should focus
not only on reflecting and responding to the way electrical
equipment fail but also on deducing the failure consequences The failure location is an equipment type such as circuit-
by connecting statistical data to durable evaluation models. breaker, transformer, cable, conductor etc. At every failure
Once the achieved evaluation of the failure statistic location, circuit-breakers, hausings, conductors, and paper-
contributes to a model of component reliability, the potential insulated populate the failure probabilities of 37%, 28%, 67%,
failure distributions will be determined by different equipment and 26% on their own component systems such as switchgear
types and service conditions. stations, secondary substations, overhead lines, and cable
systems respectively.
The information about the failure cause is of special
2 EVALUATION OF THE FAILURE importance since the consequences of failure can be
STATISTIC prophesied and the appropriate measures of maintenance may
The evaluation level of failure statistics depends heavily on be devised by evaluating it. The failure cause may identify the
quantity and quality of the acquired data. Up-to-date origin of detrimental effects, contributing to the failure of
documents [8] have collected lots of failure record data, being electrical components. In distribution networks, the primary
dependent more on the calendar year than on the component causes for failure are the decrease of electrical strength,
age. Moreover, operational experiences are not sufficient for thermal strength, mechanical strength and random failure.
these increasingly old components. Furthermore, certain Circuit-breakers, transmission transformers (abbreviation T-
information on specific damage data, especially without transformer) and disconnectors cause the primary failures in
disturbance of network operation, is often hard to acquire or switchgear stations, thus they are very maintenance-relevant.
even not available at all. Therefore, this research work is For circuit-breakers, more than 80% of failures are caused by
initiated to collect nearly 120.000 failure data of historical the decrease of mechanical strength whereas small-oil-volume
events in the special failure statistic from the year 1920 to circuit-breakers are primarily concerned with the leakage of
2005. The detailed failure statistic can provide information insulating oil. Except for the oil leakage, the contact erosion as
about the actual conditions of all electrical equipment whose well as defective protection & control system result in a bit
failure probability can be modeled as a function of operating decrease in circuit-breakers reliability. For T-transformers, the
history, operational stresses and component type. decrease of mechanical strength is the most frequent cause of
The information on each component is grouped into two failure, also yielding to the leakage of oil or the damage of metal
data fields: failure location and failure cause. As the evaluated shells to a large extent. The mechanical cycling of operation has
results of the failure statistic, failure location and failure cause a detrimental effect on disconnectors.
of distribution networks, detected during operation or Housings, distribution-transformers (abbreviation D-
maintenance activities, are presented in Table 1. In switchgear transformer) and load-interrupters are the main equipment for
stations and secondary substations, a majority of failure failure in secondary substations. The mechanical destruction,
causes, leading to events without disturbance of operation, can owing to the worse material of housing, is most commonly
be diagnosed at early stages during maintenance. In many found to occur at housings. As significant equipment, D-
cases, failures can therefore be prevented from spreading out transformers are affected in three ways by the degradation
to disturbances. Cable systems correspond to a special case stress. First, there is 48% of failure, mostly due to the leakage
that we can make repair or replacement only after each failure, of oil. Second, there is 32% of failure, due to electrical faults
and do no preventive maintenance at periodic times. Thus the during the normal operation of on-load tap changers. Third,
failure of cables is usually associated with disturbance. For there is an accidental voltage impulse on component. Load-
overhead lines, the analysis of failure data relates only to interrupters suffer from the contact erosion and contact
failures with disturbance of operation. deformation.
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 14, No. 5; October 2007 1185
Failures in cable systems happen mostly on cables combination of single-stress models, e.g. the Inverse-Power-
themselves and 21% on cable joints as well as 14% on Model and the Arrhenius-Model. This can be simply done by
terminations. Of course, most of these events, which were assuming that the aging rate under these combined stresses is
detected exclusively by experience, lead to disturbance of the product of the aging rates under each single stress:
operation. Both, cables and joints, are damaged by the
worsening of insulating materials. Cables also get often L = L0 ( E / E0 ) (n bT ) (M / M 0 )m e BT , T = 1 / 0 1 / (1)
troubled with excavation activities. Both paper-insulated
cables and VPE cables can be taken as an example.
The failures in overhead lines occur frequently on the where E, M, T and L are the electrical, mechanical, thermal
conductors. It is due to the fact that conductors are exposed to stresses and lifetime, respectively. E0 and M0 are the scale-
the environment. Failures for conductors are often caused by parameters for the lower limit of electrical and mechanical
vegetation and also by atmospheric influences. Storms, stresses respectively (below which the aging can be neglected)
lightning and animals are also the major cause of stochastic and L0 is the corresponding lifetime. n, m and B are the
accidents for interrupters, transformers and housings. voltage-endurance coefficient, the mechanical stress-
endurance coefficient and the activation energy of thermal
degradation reaction, respectively. b is the correct coefficient
3 MODELING OF THE COMPONENT which takes into account the reaction of materials due to
RELIABILITY combined stress application. and 0 are the absolute
From the general degradation properties of electrical temperature and the reference temperature.
components, it is known that the aging of electrical Statistical treatment of aging test data is a fundamental
components are often contribute to the failure due to the topic that the material endurance can be estimated by single or
presence of degradation stresses such as electrical, thermal, multiple stresses. With regarding to the aging of insulating
mechanical and environmental stresses. The typical aging materials, subjected to combined electrical, mechanical and
processes of insulating materials are considered to be partial thermal stresses, the Weibull-function is generally used to
discharge, formation of water trees and electrical and thermo- treat failure time obtained from aging tests. Therefore, an
chemical processes as well as wear-out processes. accepted statistical model of determining the likelihood of
In cable systems, the character of tree growth and the aging failure P at given stresses is compared with a shape parameter
of solid materials follow the inverse-power relationship [2,9]. and can be well described by
Due to overheating, the failure may occur as a result of the
increased losses inside insulating materials [10,11]. The
behavior of a chemical-bond-breaking reaction can be expressed
[
P( L) = 1 exp (L / L63% ) ] (2)
by using the Arrhenius Model [9,12]. In oil-impregnated
transformers, much attention has been paid to the condition where L63% is the failure time for the failure probability of
diagnosis of the cellulose insulating materials (paper and 63% as a function of the lifetime L, at which a fraction (1-
pressboard). The insulating paper around the conductors decays e 1 ) equal to 63% of the electrical components have failed.
if it has been previously aged due to the heat dissipation of The scale-parameter represents the component dispersion in
windings, the loss induced by eddy-current or the presence of time-to-failure.
water [3, 4]. Thus, the effects of temperature and water on the The Weibull-function for the probabilistic failure model
actual conditions of paper-insulated transformers can be correlates well with stochastic accidents. The environmental
approximated by the Arrhenius Model, and by the Inverse influences also have an exponential impact on the failure
Power Model, respectively. For the development of the life probability, and chances of their appearance are assumed to be
model, aging mechanisms of insulating gas and of solid constant. The only difference in the probabilistic failure model
insulators used in gas-insulated switchgear, are reviewed. When arises from the choice of value.
conducting particles are present in gas-insulated switchgears, A criterion for the aging of electrical components is
the dielectric strength of insulating gases and of solid insulators consistent with the electrical, thermal or mechanical stress.
tends to decrease with time if a voltage is applied [5,9]. This is The failure of an electrical component may occur if over-
named the voltage-time characteristic of insulating gases, which voltage or mechanical stress is applied, or if the electrical
satisfies the empirical Inverse Power Model [5]. Corrosion is the component is aged by temperature or time. Thus the lifetime
L63% can be explained by equation (1). For the estimation of
most adverse consequence of aging for conductors of overhead
L63% in equation (2), the lifetime L for the failure probability
lines. The amount of corrosion depends mainly on the
of 63% in equation (1) is substituted to determine the failure
environmental conditions due to wind, storm or ice [6]. The probability of an electrical component under the influences of
influences of mechanical stress and temperature on conductors aging and electrical, mechanical stresses:
can be also described by the Inverse Power Model, and by the
Arrhenius Model [12, 13]. E (n bT ) m
On the basis of the investigations, a thorough electro- M L
P ( L ) = 1 exp e BT (3)
thermo-mechanical life model derives from a suitable E0 M0 L0
1186 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Component Reliability Modeling of Distribution Systems Based on the Evaluation of Failure Statistics
In this way, equation (3) becomes the probabilistic failure In our models, the other parameters of equation (1) may be
model for combined stresses. That is, a functional relationship significantly modified by different equipment types and
between the failure distribution and the applied stresses provides service conditions. For this purpose, the specific failure
life lines at different probabilities. It exhibits that temperature statistic [1] has been especially evaluated whereas the
has an exponential detrimental impact on failure probability - probability densities of failure are compared with the original
more than exponential results from temperature itself and less statistic for accurate and correct representation. In this way,
than exponential results from electric field strength. The failure the other parameters of equation (1) can be optimized as
probability is also detrimentally influenced by electric field reported in Table 3. If the actual data are derived from
strength and mechanical stress, and adversely affected by practical operations, these parameters of equation (1) may be
increasing lifetime. Finally, a positive effect of temperature is carefully chosen to match up with them.
observed in failure probability owing to the electrical threshold
stress for elevated temperatures. In this case, the electrical stress Table 3. The parameters of equation (3).
is not an aging factor but simply becomes the failure cause for
insulating materials extremely aged by temperature. component E M
It has to be mentioned that the statistical failure data of
Table 1 has been collected in such a way that various failure conductor 8.1 2.6 E0 22.5 M0 25 0C
causes can be traced back to the failure consequence on the housing 9.3 1.0 E0 22.5 M0 25 0C
failure location of their occurrence. For example, the failure of disconnector 7.1 1.0 E0 24.2 M0 25 0C
paper-insulated cables is caused by a random failure of 39% T-transformer 11.6 2.2 E0 6.8 M0 40 0C
and an electrical failure of 60%. Therefore, the resulting D-transformer 9.9 2.0 E0 7.4 M0 40 0C
failure probability of electrical components is derived from interrupter 13.3 2.1 E0 7.0 M0 40 0C
each pair of these elementary and independent failure causes. circuit-breaker 8.3 2.0 E0 7.2 M0 40 0C
The total failure probability Pl with l failure causes can be termination 9.2 1.3 E0 1.0 M0 60 0C
obtained by a simple mixture of the failure probabilities Pi for paper-cable 8.2 1.3 E0 1.0 M0 60 0C
i = 1, 2, ..., l, corresponding to each failure cause VPE-cable 6.6 1.5 E0 1.0 M0 60 0C
Pl = a
i =1
i Pi , a
i =1
i =1 (4)
Table 2. The parameters of equation (1). Table 4. The parameters of equation (3).
0.08
0.12
probability density
probability density
0.04
0.06
0 25 50 75 100
0 15 30 45 60
year year
Figure 1. Conductor in overhead line: calculated (full line) and statistical
Figure 5. Termination in cable system: calculated (full line) and statistical
probability densities of failure.
probability densities of failure.
0.08
0.12
probability density
probability density
0.04
0.06
0 15 30 45 60
0 15 30 45 60
year
year
Figure 2. Paper-cable in cable system: calculated (full line) and statistical
Figure 6. Housing in secondary substation: calculated (full line) and statistical
probability densities of failure.
probability densities of failure.
0.1
0.08
probability density
probability density
0.05
0.04
0 15 30 45 60
0 15 30 45 60
year year
Figure 3. VPE-Cable in cable system: calculated (full line) and statistical Figure 7. D-transformer in secondary substation: calculated (full line) and
probability densities of failure. statistical probability densities of failure.
0.08 0.15
probability density
probability density
0.04 0.075
0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
year year
Figure 4. Joint in cable system: calculated (full line) and statistical Figure 8. Load-interrupter in secondary substation: calculated (full line) and
probability densities of failure. statistical probability densities of failure.
1188 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Component Reliability Modeling of Distribution Systems Based on the Evaluation of Failure Statistics
Table 5. Failure probabilities of electrical components.
0.1
probability density
failure probability failure probability
component
for 15 years for 30 years
termination 0.04 % 22 %
0.05
circuit-breaker 0.2 % 43 %
disconnector 0.8 % 66 %
housing 6% 28 %
0 15 30 45 60 interrupter 6% 46 %
T-transformer 7% 41 %
year
conductor 9% 21 %
Figure 9. Circuit-breaker in switchgear station: calculated (full line) and
joint 11% 76 %
statistical probability densities of failure.
D-transformer 14 % 53 %
paper-cable 17 % 64 %
VPE-cable 64% 100 %
0.08
probability density
f (t ) = d P (t > L ) / d t (5)
0 15 30 45 60
h ( t ) = d P ( t > L ) / [ 1 P ( t > L ) ] d t (6)
year
Figure 10. T-transformer in switchgear station: calculated (full line) and under the assumption that failures will immediately occur as
statistical probability densities of failure.
long as the variable t is larger than the lifetime L.
The mean time to failure is directly proportional to the
probability density of failure. According to [27], the expected
lifetime (L), standard deviation (L) and variation coefficient
0.1
(L) can be obtained by
probability density
0.05 ( L) =
Lf (L)dL
0
(7)
0 15 30 45 60
2 ( L) = [ L ( L)]2 f ( L)dL (8)
year 0
Figure 11. Disconnector in switchgear station: calculated (full line) and
statistical probability densities of failure. ( L) = ( L ) ( L ) (9)
0.6 3
Figure 13 exhibits the failure characteristics for T- 1
transformers, housings, D-transformers and load-
interrupters which have the obvious dependence on
component age. For transformers, the mechanical cycling 4
fatigue includes the leakage of oil on the one hand. On the 0
0 15 30 45 60
other hand, much attention has been paid to the condition
diagnosis of the cellulose insulating materials (paper and year
pressboard). Due to the heat dissipation of windings, an
Figure 13. Calculated failure rates for the different components. 1-D-
excessive electrical loading combined with temperature
transformer; 2- interrupter; 3-housing; 4-T-transformer.
may increase the dissipation factor of insulating materials.
Furthermore, on-load tap changers and load-interrupters are
aged by charge particles, existing in insulating materials. If It is recognized from Figure 12 that those VPE-cables of the
the electrical stress continues for a long time, partial old generation from the year 1970 to 1980 are affected by the
discharges produce so much decomposition that the rapid ageing. This reflects clearly on the worse failure rate of
conductive paths are formed in dielectric materials and the VPE-cables than other types of cable. As shown in Figures 12
dielectric strength of insulating materials tends to wear and 14 as well as Table 6, VPE cables demonstrate the
down with time. From Figure 13, the influence of expected failure rate of 0.25 failures per year, a fourth of
corrective maintenance can be clearly seen that the failure which amounts to paper-insulated cables failure rate. For
rate increases until maintenance activities are made. By medium-voltage cables, the development of water trees as a
exchanging the insulating oil, the failure rates of major degradation phenomenon has become well-known, and
transformers may be improved for a certain time. This extensive research has been performed on modeling its
means that maintenance can decrease the failure rate, effects. In the presence of water, the corrosion of reinforcing
resulting in the beneficial impact on reliability. tapes and the change in the crystalline structure are the
1190 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Component Reliability Modeling of Distribution Systems Based on the Evaluation of Failure Statistics
dominant aging factors of cables. When the current starts to Of the component reliability that is modeled, time-
flow, the water tree can change finally into an electrical tree dependent failure rate demonstrates the most significant result.
and the dielectric strength rapidly decreases. By the These results clearly show the dependency of the failure rate
replacement of one piece of cable, the failure rate of VPE on component age and on the maintenance history. Our results
cables can be improved after 20 or 25 years. also illustrate how the typical or worst-case operating
conditions influence the component reliability.
For disconnectors, terminations, VPE-cables and circuit-
0.5
breakers, the increasing failure rate proves that all future
failure rate (1/year)