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Contemporary Southeast Asia
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Contemporary Southeast Asia Vol. 28, No. 2 (2006), pp. 276-96 DOI: 10.1355/cs28-2e
? 2006 ISEAS ISSN 0219-797X print / ISSN 1793-284X electronic
276
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 277
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278 Leszek Buszynski
had devised a pro-Western policy and for President Yeltsin the major
priority was maintaining American support and Western recognition
of Russia's great power status in the face of the humiliations of the
Soviet collapse. Russian Foreign Ministry representatives repeatedly
declared their interest in regional affairs and they participated regularly
in regional forums, but they had difficulty giving those declarations
any substance while Yeltsin's pro-Western leadership looked elsewhere.
Their asseverations of interest in East Asian regional affairs sounded
hollow, a matter of institutionalized habit that had been formed in
the Soviet years. Without direction from the top they continued to
announce proposals that related to a Soviet past, and could never
overcome die perceived discrepancy between Russia's intentions and
current capabilities.
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 279
Yevgennii Primakov and Putin as well. Sergei Denisov wrote that all
was not lost as without Russia's active participation regional security
could not be assured. He argued that Russia had a role to assume in
the region as the ASEAN countries were troubled by the rise of China,
and in this situation Russia could become their partner (Denisov 1994).
Only under Putin was some order imposed upon Russian policy in
which case the Asian great power approach was combined with an
emphasis on ASEAN and regional institutions.
Despite the aspirations that Russia could somehow reclaim a
respected position in the Asia-Pacific, Russia's modest situation failed
to offer a supporting basis for their realization. After the Soviet collapse
Russia's leadership had prepared for a tidy exit from Southeast Asia
while preserving certain residual and profitable interests. The Soviet
air, naval, and SIGINT (Signals Intelligence) facility at Cam Ranh Bay
in southern Vietnam which had generated considerable concern in
the United States lost its significance in a new era and was quickly
downsized. During the Soviet era there was the view, particularly
in Indonesian and Malaysian military circles, that the Soviet facility
played a useful role in balancing Chinese hegemonic ambitions.
American protestations in relation to the danger of complacency
before the Soviet threat were treated indifferently. Cam Ranh Bay
had given the Soviet Union a much debated and contested status
within ASEAN which could not be ignored. At the 1992 ASEAN
AMM Kozyrev attempted to reclaim that status for Russia by declaring
that Cam Ranh Bay would contribute to regional stability, and that
Russia would retain a presence there if Vietnam agreed (Nikkei,
27 July 1992). Times had changed, however. China had improved
its relationship with ASEAN since it terminated its support for the
communist parties of the region as a result of the Haadyai agreement
of December 1989. Moreover, the skeleton Russian presence in Cam
Ranh Bay failed to support Russia's desire for status. Paul Wolfowitz,
who was then Under-secretary of Defence for Policy, remarked that
in "practical military terms" Russia had withdrawn from the facility
(United Sates Information Service, 3 August 1992).
For the Yeltsin leadership, border security with China was a
paramount interest and it had no intention of damaging relations with
Beijing by holding on to the facility. The lease on Cam Ranh Bay was
signed on 2 May 1979 for 25 years but the Russian withdrawal began
when the Soviet naval vessel, the Admiral Spirodonov, returned to
Vladivostock in December 1991. Thereafter only some small vessels
remained. The airfield which had during the Soviet era hosted
reconnaissance TU-95 flights from the Far East was no longer in use.
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280 Leszek Buszynski
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 281
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282 Leszek Buszynski
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 283
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284 Leszek Buszynski
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 285
his successor in December 1999, and then departed from the political
stage. Putin's appeal to Yeltsin was his undoubted administrative skill
and patriotism. He was elected Russia's President on 5 April 2000 and
subsequently defined foreign policy priorities which placed national
interest above any particular policy orientation, a direct repudiation
of the Kozyrev pro-Western policy. Putin's foreign policy has been
described as a "new realism" in which Russia would act as a normal
great power with its own clear interests to promote (Sakwa 2004,
pp. 207-33). Putin made multipolarity the centre of his foreign policy
and stressed the importance of the Asia-Pacific region and Russia's
participation in Asian regionalism. Over the period 2000-2001 Putin
conducted a number of high-profile visits to China, Japan, India, and
North Korea to demonstrate the importance of the Asia-Pacific region
for Russia (Alekseev 2000). Within the context of Putin's Asia policy,
relations with ASEAN were important ? hence the need for a systematic
effort to overcome the indifference of the early Yeltsin era to take
ASEAN more seriously. One reason was that ASEAN had placed itself in
"the driver's seat" in Asia-Pacific regionalism, in APEC, as well as the
ARF; and to assure itself of a place in Asia-Pacific regionalism Russia
required ASEAN's endorsement. A second reason was that ASEAN
represented new possibilities for Russian arms sales, which Putin
quickly seized upon. Putin became Russia's premier arms salesman
exploiting price advantages and the incentive of counter-trade deals
to exploit new markets in ASEAN.
Putin's first visit to an ASEAN capital was to Hanoi in February
2001 where the interest was trade and arms sales. Putin then declared
a "strategic partnership" with Vietnam and gave particular attention
to that country which Yeltsin had ignored. Vietnam was regarded by
the Putin leadership as a "traditional" trading partner in Southeast
Asia and one where the trade prospects were most encouraging. By
2004 Russia's trade with Vietnam reached US$800 million, which
was 27 per cent of Russia's total trade with ASEAN. Russia was one
of the major investors in Vietnam with accumulated investments
of US$1.7 billion arising from 300 projects, including the Hoabin
hydroelectric plant (Kazakov 2004). Other projects being examined
include the Son La hydroelectric plant, automobile and components
manufacturing, as well as the construction of a subway in Hanoi
and Ho Chi Minh City. When Vietnamese President Tran Due Luong
visited Moscow in May 2004 a Russian-Vietnamese Business Forum
was established, which indicated a developing trading interest on
both sides. Vietnam was a market for Russian metals and metal
products which constituted around 60 per cent of Russia's exports.
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286 Leszek Buszynski
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 287
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288 Leszek Buszynski
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 289
Asia-Pacific Regionalism
Inclusion in Asia-Pacific regionalism has been Putin's unwavering
objective and not just as a guest but as a full participant. Soon after
he became President in July 2000 a new foreign policy concept was
articulated by Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, who stressed that closer
integration into the Asia-Pacific region was necessary for the economic
improvement of Siberia and the Far East. In this context it was
stated that Russia would actively participate in APEC and ASEAN
(Nezavisimaya Gazeta, 11 July 2000). Russia's participation had been
anticipated by ASEAN and particular institutions were created for this
purpose. Though Russia at that stage had little to contribute and the
institutions remained unfulfilled, ASEAN was preparing for the time
when Russia's contribution would become effective. In June 1997
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290 Leszek Buszynski
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 291
was created for Putin to address the group after the public plenary
session and before the closed session when the participants met for
three hours. Putin, nonetheless, requested full membership of the
EAS, which was to be discussed by the participants before the second
EAS scheduled for Cebu in December 2006. The group was divided
over Russia's participation, Malaysia argued that if Australia, New
Zealand, and India were included then so should Russia. Malaysia's
enthusiastic endorsement of Russia was supported by Gloria Macapagal
Arroyo of the Philippines and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. Badawi,
however, was compelled to backtrack over the issue when Singapore
and Indonesia both opposed the inclusion of Russia. Lee Hsien Loong
and Indonesia's Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono issued a joint statement at
the summit objecting to Malaysia's language which was supportive of
Russia's inclusion (Nikkei, 15 December 2005). ASEAN had imposed
three conditions for participating in the EAS, adherence to the TAC,
dialogue partner status with ASEAN, and evidence of "substantial"
relations with ASEAN (Gapeev 2005). While Russia had signed the
TAC and had dialogue partner status with ASEAN since July 1997,
Singapore insisted that Russia's weak economic links with the region
did not merit its participation. Indonesia was concerned that a further
expansion of the EAS membership would reduce ASEAN's importance
and it resisted Malaysian moves to influence its direction. Australia's
Prime Minister John Howard had also opposed Russia's entry for Cold
War reasons but his influence over the others was negligible. The
Japanese were also very resistant to the inclusion of Russia because
of their own territorial dispute with that country. Mahathir, who
had originally conceived the idea of an East Asian grouping, was
disappointed by developments since the inclusion of Australia and
New Zealand in the new grouping would allow the United States to
influence it. For this reason he had supported Russian membership
in the EAS which, in his view, was no longer an Eastern summit but
an Eastern-Australasian summit, an unwelcome deviation from his
intentions (Tsyganov 2005).
It is difficult to visualize Russia's indefinite exclusion from
the EAS, which would be an unnecessary diplomatic affront that
ASEAN would ultimately avoid. Russians hope that a role as major
arms supplier to several key ASEAN countries would ensure it of
consideration though this may be a dubious honour for countries
such as Singapore which are closely tied to the United States. The
expectation that Russia would emerge as a major energy supplier to
the region might assure it of an important position in East Asian
regionalism, sufficient to meet the condition of "substantial" relations.
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292 Leszek Buszynski
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 293
purely East Asian grouping would allow China to dominate the region
both politically and economically, in which case Japan would again
demand the inclusion of outsiders as a balance. Already Japan has
proposed that the United States be given observer status in the EAS.
The end result may be the abortion of the EAC and its displacement
by the EAS, which can correct the imbalances of the former. The
pressure for outside involvement in East Asian regionalism would
sweep Russia in as a member in due course.
Conclusions
Russia's relationship with Southeast Asia has improved considerably
over the past five years since Putin came to office. Under Gorbachev
serious attempts were made to engage the Asia-Pacific region and to
promote an appropriate regional security structure. However, when
the Soviet Union collapsed, there was little that could connect Russia
with Southeast Asia. While the Yeltsin leadership turned towards
the West, Russia's diplomats struggled with an essential irrelevance
to the East even as they made statements of serious interest in the
region. Under strong domestic pressure Yeltsin eventually reassessed
foreign policy priorities and appointed the Soviet era realist Primakov
as Foreign Minister, and subsequently as Prime Minister. Primakov
introduced balance in Russian policy by renewing relations with Asia
Pacific actors, ASEAN included, according to notions of multipolarity.
Putin's stress on Asian multipolarity was not original as it represented
a continuous theme in Russian thinking that had its roots in the Soviet
era, and from this perspective the pro-Western policy of the early
Yeltsin period was an unsustainable aberration. Putin presided over a
return to Soviet era priorities in Russia's foreign policy, those of the
Gorbachev era in particular, ensuring greater coherence and central
direction than was possible in the Yeltsin era. One priority for Russia
was arms sales and Russia's first arms salesman Putin targeted former
Soviet allies, such as Vietnam, which were familiar with Russian
weapons, as well as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand. A second
priority was participation in Asia-Pacific regionalism, which required
a strengthened relationship with ASEAN. While ASEAN assumed a
central role in Asia-Pacific regionalism, Russian entry into regional
bodies such as APEC, the ARF, and now the EAS demanded ASEAN
affirmation. Under Putin, Russia has at least positioned itself to take
advantage of Asia-Pacific regional developments to the extent that its
membership is being seriously debated. That in itself is a considerable
change over the past and an interim Russian success.
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294 Leszek Buszynski
NOTES
Address by A.V. Kozyrev, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia at the Consultative
Meeting with the ASEAN Ministers of Foreign Affairs, 25 July 1992.
Milavia SU-27 "Flanker", Military Aviation website: http://www.milavia.net/
aircraft/su-27/su-27_ops.htm.
The House of Representatives Commission for Defence Affairs allowed the
purchase of MI helicopters, but demanded that those involved should be punished.
Nonetheless, after receiving a letter from the Defence Minister Juwono Sudarsono
supporting the purchases the Commission agreed (Hari 2005).
"TNI Wants a Squadron of Sukhoi Jets Next Year". Jakarta Post, 29 August 2003,
Air Force Chief Djoko Suyanto declared the intention to purchase a full squadron
of SU fighters, in addition to those already purchased in a US$700 million deal.
"Indoneziya planiruet zakupit* u Rossii eshche 12 istrebitelei Su", NEWSru.com,
24 June 2005.
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Russia and Southeast Asia: A New Relationship 295
5 Rendi Akhmad Witular, "RI to Buy Warships, Subs from Russia, Germany", Jakarta
Post, 5 January 2006; and "Indonesia to Buy 12 Russian Submarines", MOSNEWS.
com, 23 January 2006. http://www.mosnews.com/news/2006/01/23/indonsub.
shtmal.
6 Philippine Energy Secretary Vincent Perez, Jr. stressed the importance of a
diversification of oil supplies and for agreements with Russian oil companies.
"Russian Crude to Help Philippines to Cut Dependence on Middle East Oil",
Alexander's Oil and Gas Connections, 2 October 2003.
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