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Conclusion................................................................................................................................10
References................................................................................................................................11
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Investors are expected to generate adequate return on investment made in shares. The
return on investment in shares is generated by two ways: annual dividends and capital
appreciation (Lee and et. al., 2012). In order to test the fair value of shares the expected
return for investment in shares can be estimate through Capital Assets Pricing Model
(CAPM) (Milionis, 2011). The expected return for investment option provided is measured
below.
E ( r )=Rf + (RmRf ) (CAPM model)
Where,
E(r) is expected rate of return
Rm is market rate
Interest rate Swaps provide an option to either convert fixed rate to floating rate or
vice versa. According to Grinblatt (2001), swaps involve exchange of cash flows as desired
by investors. Financial intermediaries or banking institutions provide quotes for facilitating
swaps between two parties. In present case the company has borrowed money for five year at
interest rate of 7%. The business unit desires to convert fixed rate liability into floating rate
liability. It can approach financial intermediary to enter into swap agreement. The quotes
declared by banking institution to facilitate swap agreement are presented in table
underneath.
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Effective Duration: The effective duration is calculated for bonds having embedded
options or redemption features. The methodology emphasizes on calculating duration through
construction of binomial trees.
It is seen that different kinds of duration are estimated in case of investment is bond
market. The bond duration is applied by investors since it is the measure of interest rate risk
associated with investment option. There are certain limitations of duration for bonds as
described below in detail.
The duration estimated is considered although supports investors decision making
process. It does not provide absolute measure of bond risk. It does not provide any
indication related to credit risk associated with bond.
It is also seen that duration of bond changes with variation in interest rates and as
time to maturity arises. The changing duration with each of coupon payments make
evaluation difficult. Henceforth, investors do not generate an idea of accurate
duration for bond while making investment decision.
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The Value at risk on one hand assumes that loss does not exceed confidence interval.
However, expected loss is based on assumption that investor assumes risk more than
confidence level. This in turn indicates that expected shortfall is highly conservative in
nature. The financial markets regulators tend to make extensive use of value at risk so as to
measure the level of risk associated (Prignon and Smith, 2010). However, due to rising
situations of financial turmoil in past financial institutions started adopting expected shortfall
internally for measuring risk associated with investors. It can be said that with higher
confidence interval Value at risk is suitable option. However, for investment options with
lower confidence level the value of expected shortfall should be estimated for assessing risk.
.
QUESTION 5 VOLATILITY AND ITS MODELS
The GARCH model is considered to be extension of EMWA model that takes into
consideration average long-run average variance, t 1 and Rn1 . The GARCH Model is
based on some of assumptions. The model assumes that future or tomorrows volatility
regresses itself since it is the function of todays volatility. Moreover, it assumes that future
variance is highly dependent on the most recent variance. Finally, the variances are expected
to change over a period of time. The model is considered to estimate different range of
parameters in the process of measuring overall volatility.
Two of models are considered to be highly efficient for estimating volatility
associated with the investments. The comparison between two models is detailed underneath.
The EWMA model is regarded as special case of GARCH (1, 1). On other hand,
GARCH (1, 1) is considered to be generalized case for EMWA model.
GARCH as a model to measure volatility takes into consideration the mean reversion.
However, EWMA does not emphasize on considering the concept of mean reversion.
GARCH model is proved to be highly accurate for estimating volatility by various
authors from time-to-time (Kissell, 2012). The high accuracy is a result of considering
mean reversion that is considered while measuring volatility as per the model.
In order to estimate volatility, EWMA assigns higher weight age to recent
observations rather than previous observations. However, GARCH model is based on
assumption that risk today is directly and significantly correlated to risk yesterday.
The two of volatility models are considered to be efficient in modelling volatility
associated with investment option. The models are widely used in different scenarios for
estimating volatility and support investment decisions.
Berkowitz, J., Christoffersen, P. and Pelletier, D. 2011. Evaluating value-at-risk models with
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Chen, Q., Gerlach, R. and Lu, Z., 2012. Bayesian Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall
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Cornett, M. M. and et.al., 2011. Liquidity risk management and credit supply in the financial
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Engle, R. F. and Sokalska, M. E., 2012. Forecasting intraday volatility in the us equity
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Grinblatt, M. 2001. An analytic solution for interest rate swap spreads. International Review
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Hansen, P. R., Huang, Z. And Shek, H. H., 2012. Realized garch: a joint model for returns
and realized measures of volatility. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 27(6). Pp.
877-906.
Hong, G. And Sarkar, S., 2007. Equity Systematic Risk (Beta) and Its Determinants.
Contemporary Accounting Research. 24(2). Pp. 423-66.
Hull, C., 2015. Risk Management and Financial institutions. Courier Westford.
Hyman, J. and et. al., 2015. Coupon Effects on Corporate Bonds: Pricing, Empirical
Duration, and Spread Convexity. The Journal of Fixed Income. 24(3). Pp. 52-63.
Kissell, R., 2012. Intraday Volatility Models: Methods to Improve Real-Time Forecasts. The
Journal of Trading. 7(4). Pp. 27-34.
Klein, C. and Stellner, C., 2014. The systematic risk of corporate bonds: default risk, term
risk, and index choice. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management. 28(1). Pp. 29-
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Lee, C. F. and et. al., 2012. Security analysis, portfolio management, and financial
derivatives. World Scientific Books.
Milionis, A., 2011. A Conditional CAPM: Implications For Systematic Risk Estimation. The
Journal Of Risk Finance.12(4). Pp.306 314.
Prignon, C. and Smith, D. R. 2010. The level and quality of Value-at-Risk disclosure by
commercial banks. Journal of Banking & Finance. 34(2). Pp. 362-377.
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Available through: <http://www.treasurer.ca.gov/cdiac/publications/duration.pdf>.
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30 Index. [pdf]. Avaialbele through: <
http://content.csbs.utah.edu/~ehrbar/erc2002/pdf/P161.pdf>. [Accessed on 24th
March 2015].
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