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From: DanRussell<dan.55.russell@gmail.

com>
Senttime: 08/24/201603:53:48PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:youhintedatallthisatleastonce.........

ifyouspeedeverytimeyou'rebehindthewheel,you'reboundtocollectafewtickets....

richthatBHOcrony"mr.ethics"normeiseniscommenting.hisonlyqualificationforthecushyPragueCOMjobwasthathis
grandmotherwasfromtheCzechRepublic.

OnAug24,2016,at08:22,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.yahoo.com/news/many-donors-clinton-foundation-met-her-state-183315225--election.html
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/24/201611:22:45PM
To: DanielRussell<dan.55.russell@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:youhintedatallthisatleastonce.........

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvV3nn_de2k

OnAug24,2016,at6:53PM,DanRussell<dan.55.russell@gmail.com>wrote:

ifyouspeedeverytimeyou'rebehindthewheel,you'reboundtocollectafewtickets....

richthatBHOcrony"mr.ethics"normeiseniscommenting.hisonlyqualificationforthecushyPragueCOMjobwas
thathisgrandmotherwasfromtheCzechRepublic.

OnAug24,2016,at08:22,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.yahoo.com/news/many-donors-clinton-foundation-met-her-state-183315225--election.html
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/24/201605:22:43AM
To: DanielRussell<dan.55.russell@gmail.com>
Subject: youhintedatallthisatleastonce.........

http://www.yahoo.com/news/many-donors-clinton-foundation-met-her-state-183315225--election.html
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201611:18:43PM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: 3reasonsRussiasVladimirPutinmightwanttointerfereintheUSpresidentialelections-VoxFIONA

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/27/12304448/putin-elections-dnc-hack

3reasonsRussiasVladimirPutinmightwantto
interfereintheUSpresidentialelections
TheClintoncampaign,amongothers,hasaccusedVladimirPutinofencouragingRussian
intelligencetohacktheDemocraticNationalCommittee(DNC)filesandhandoverthousandsof
emailstoWikiLeaksaspartofabroaderschemetogetDonaldTrumpelectedpresident.

ButwhywouldPutinevenwanttoinfluencetheUSpresidentialelection?Thereareseveral
reasonsRussiamightwantstiruptroubleinanalreadycontentiouscampaign.Russianviewsof
theUnitedStatesareatalowpointPutinbelievestheUSplaysitsownnefariousgamesin
RussianpoliticsandMoscowwouldliketoundermineUSinternationalcredibilitybyhighlighting
thedeficienciesinAmericanpartypolitics.

PutinthinkstheUSalreadydidittohimfirst

AsfarasPutinandhisinnercircleareconcerned,itwastheUnitedStatesthatmovedfirstto
meddleinRussianpoliticswhenPutindecidedtoreturnforathirdterm.In2011-12,Russian
demonstratorstooktothestreetstoprotestelectoralviolationsintheparliamentaryelectionsand
thelackofalternativecandidatestoPutininthepresidentialelection.Putinandhisinnercircle
believedtheUSwastoblame.Putinevenassertedthatthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClinton
hadeitherincitedordirectlyfinancedthedemonstrations.

InPutinsmindset,theWestalwaystriestobringRussiadown.Nextyearwillbethe100th
anniversaryoftheRussianRevolution,andthisyearmarksthe25thanniversaryofthe
dissolutionoftheSovietUnion.IntheRussianworldview,firstGermanyinWorldWarIandthen
theUnitedStatesintheColdWartookadvantageofdomesticdivisionsandvulnerabilitiesandthe
Russianstatecollapsedtwiceinonecentury.

SooneofPutinsprimaryobjectivesistoforceWesternleaderstobackoffinordertomakesure
thisdoesnthappenagain.PutinwantstheUnitedStatesandotherWesterngovernmentstostop
funding,aspartoftheirforeignpolicies,organizationsthatpromotepoliticalandeconomic
transformationsinRussia.HealsowantstoblockUSofficialsfrommeetingwithopposition
figuresandparties.FromPutinsperspective,democracypromotionisjustacoverforregime
change.

PutinthinksandactslikeaKGBoperative

BeforehewastheleaderofRussia,VladimirPutinwasanofficerintheKGB,theSoviet-era
secretintelligenceservice,andthatexperiencecontinuestoshapehisviewsandactions.Putin
approacheshisdealingswiththeUnitedStateswiththelogicofacovertoperative,steepedin
plotsandconspiracies.Healsousesanintelligenceoperativestools.Hespreparedtofightdirty,
andhereliesontheelementoftacticalsurprisetoensuremaximumeffect.
Putinhastwofeaturesthatdistinguishhimfromotherworldleaders.Asheputsit,heknowshow
toworkwithpeopleandworkwithinformation.IntheKGB,Putinlearnedhowtoprobe
peoplesvulnerabilities,uncovertheirsecrets,andusecompromisinginformationagainstthem.In
otherwords,blackmailandintimidationarepartofhisstockintrade.

Inhisview,otherworldleadersareessentiallytargets.Hegathersinformationandcarefully
tailorshisapproachtoeachleadertoseehowhecanoutmaneuverthem.Inoneinfamousand
blatantepisode,PutinplayedonGermanChancellorAngelaMerkelsfearofdogstoputheredge
duringaone-on-onemeetingathisdacha.HeallowedhisblackLabradortosniffaroundandlie
atherfeet.Onnumerousotheroccasions,PutinhassignaledtovisitingWesternofficialsthathe
knowspersonalinformationfromtheiroldKGBfiles.

Putinalsoknowshowtoplaythemedia.Russiaalreadyhasalongtraditionofpropagandaand
informationwarfare,butPutinisamastermanipulator.Earlyinhispresidency,hedescribedthe
pressasaninstrumentthathewoulddeployintheserviceofthestate.TheKremlinhastrained
itsownbloggerstocreatecontentontheinternet.Ithashiredpublicrelationsfirmstoimproveits
mediastrategy.Kremlin-sponsoredfocusgroupshavehelpedhonemessaging.Asliesarepartof
thecoinoftheintelligenceoperativeandfactsarefungible,therehavebeenfewconstraintson
creativecontent.

TheRussianmediamachinefunctionsasahugepsychologicaloperation,akindofmassivepro-
PutinSuperPAC.Athome,itralliestheRussianpublicaroundtheflagbypublicizingthedamage
Russiasenemiesaretryingtoinflict.Abroad,itfocusesonscandalsthatunderscorethehubris,
hypocrisy,andfailingsofWesternpoliticalsystems.

TheDNCfilesmaynothavebeengiventoWikiLeaksbyRussianintelligence,buttheselective
releaseofemailcaches,atajuncturewhentheyarelikelytogainthegreatestinternationalmedia
attentionandhavethemostnegativepoliticalimpactintheUnitedStates,doeshavethe
hallmarksofacarefullyconsideredoperation.ForVladimirPutin,whoseeshimselfaslockedina
struggleforinfluencewiththeUnitedStates,thiswouldallbefairgame.

PutinwantsaweakenedUSpresidency

ThereismuchspeculationthatPutinmayseeDonaldTrumpassomeonehecandobusiness
with,andthathehasagrudgeagainstHillaryClinton.TrumpspraiseofPutinasastrong
leaderisanotablebreakwiththegeneraltrendofUSpoliticiansandopinionleaderscastigating
PutinandcriticizingRussia,andPutinhasmadeseeminglycomplimentarycommentsabout
Trumpinreturn.

Incontrast,inpublicandprivate,PutinandotherRussianofficialshavemadeitclearthatthey
haveanegativeopinionofClinton.Ina2014interviewwithFrenchtelevision,forexample,
PutinlambastedClintonforremarksshehadmadeabouthim,notingthatitwasbetternotto
arguewithwomenandthatClintonwasnevertoogracefulinherstatements.

Whateverhispersonalpreferences,though,Putincannotreasonablyexpecttoinfluencethe
outcomeoftheUSpresidentialelection.Thebesthecanhopeforistoreducetheabilityof
whoevercomesintotheOvalOfficetopursuepoliciesthataredetrimentaltoPutinsandRussias
interests.

Rightnow,PutinwantstheUStoremovesanctionsimposedonRussiaafteritsannexationof
CrimeainMarch2014.Perhapsevenmoreimportantly,Russiahasparliamentaryelectionsthis
September,andpresidentialelectionsagainin2018,whenPutinisexpectedtorunforafourth
term.TheKremlindoesnotwantarepeatoftheprotestsof2011-12,andcertainlyno
pronouncementsfromtheUSaboutwhethertheelectionsarefreeandfairorwhetherPutinhasa
genuinepopularmandateforhisnextpresidency.
Againstthisbackdrop,theinformationfromtheDNCfilesunderscoresfortheRussianpublic,
andtheoutsideworld,thatUSpartypoliticsisjustasdirtyasinRussiaoranywhereelse.The
USlooksalotlesscredibleasthemoralauthorityontheconductofelections.

IrrespectiveofwhetherDonaldTrumporHillaryClintoniselected,fromMoscowsperspective,
attheendofthisruinouspoliticalcampaign,thenewUSpresidentwilllookaswoundedasPutin
didwhenhetookofficeagainin2012.AUSpresidentwhoiselectedamidcontroversyand
recrimination,reviledbyalargesegmentoftheelectorate,andmiredindomesticcriseswillbe
hard-pressedtoforgeacoherentforeignpolicyandchallengeRussia.

FionaHillisaseniorfellowanddirectoroftheCenterontheUnitedStatesandEuropeatthe
BrookingsInstitution.AformerUSnationalintelligenceofficerforRussiaandEurasia,sheis
co-authorofMr.Putin:OperativeintheKremlin.
From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 08/22/201609:19:19AM
JohnBDunlop<john.dunlop@stanford.edu>JohnBDunlop<john.dunlop3@gmail.com>Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>WayneandStacy
To:
Allensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Fwd:KleptocracyDaily-August22,2016

Usethefirstlinkforanotherbrilliant(sofarasIcanjudge)article
byEdCaesaraboutDeutscheBankemployees'effortsinMoscowtohelp,
foraconsideration,thetransferofsignificantRussianfundstotheWest.
M.

--------ForwardedMessage--------
Subject:KleptocracyDaily-August22,2016
Date:Mon,22Aug201614:46:36+0000
From:KleptocracyInitiative
Reply-To:KleptocracyInitiative
To:martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com

KleptocracyDaily-August22,2016
KleptocracyDaily
August22,2016

Anin-depthlook

atDeutscheBank'sroleintheillicittransferof$10billionoutof
Russia.

TheFBIandDoJareinvestigating

PaulManafort'sUkraineconnections.Justsevenprosecutionshavetaken
placeundertheForeignAgentsRegistrationAct

since1966.

TheClintonFoundationhasraisedhundredsofmillionsofdollarsfrom
foreigndonors
.

"Noothermajorpoweremploysmurder

assystematicallyandruthlesslyasRussiadoesagainstthoseseenas
betrayingitsinterestsabroad."

Taiwanisprobing

abankwith$103billioninassetsandlinkstoMossackFonseca,aftera
U.S.regulatordescribeditscomplianceprogramasa"hollowshell."

Politiciansaretryingtoclosealegalloophole

whichthreatenstomakeScotlandthe"PanamaoftheNorth."TheUKis
alsoreviewingitsassetconfiscationlaws
.

*TheKleptocracyInitiative*
*HudsonInstitute*
1201PennsylvaniaAvenueNW#400
Washington,DC20004
(202)974-2439

Copyright2016TheKleptocracyInitiative.Allrightsreserved.

Thisemailwassenttomartin.dewhirst@googlemail.com

/whydidIgetthis?/

unsubscribefromthislist

updatesubscriptionpreferences

KleptocracyInitiativeHudsonInstitute1201PennsylvaniaAvenueNW,
#400Washington,DC20005USA

EmailMarketingPoweredbyMailChimp

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/23/201609:02:32AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:Pre-electionFERMENTinRussia:"AngryFARMERSstagetractormarchonMoscow:'Anti-corruption'protestisstopped17times[!]inthe
Subject:
spaqceof24hours,"themsocowtimes.com,8/23

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,August23,20169:02AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:Pre-electionFERMENTinRussia:"AngryFARMERSstagetractormarchonMoscow:'Anti-corruption'protestisstopped17
times[!]inthespaqceof24hours,"themsocowtimes.com,8/23

And:InRostovonDontheyhaveblockedandcancelledtheTRACTORMARCH[onMoscow],
http://www.newsru.com/russia/22aug/2016/volchenko.html

And:AcolumnofFARMERSandLONGHAULTRUCKERSwhoweremarchingontheKremlinhave
beenblockedbytheSiloviki,http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/08/22/1543154.html

And:InRostovOBLAST66MINERSwhohavenotbeenreceivingtheirwageshavebegunaHUNGER
STRIKEanddeclinedmedicaltreatment,http://echo.msk.ru/news/1825320echo.html

And:Theelectiondebates[onRussiasFirstChannel]havebegunwithaSCANDAL:Yavlinskii,
DmitrievaandMaltsevconductedteleviseddebates,
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/08/22_a_10153565.shtml

ThecandidatefromthePARNASpartyVyacheslavMaltsevontheopenaircalledforthe
IMPEACHMENTofPutin

And:MikhailOsokin:IntheCrimeaZOLOTOVissqueezingoutSHOIGU,sobesednik.ru,8/22

AtthebeginningoftheyeartheratingofMinisterofDefenseSergeiShoigurosesignificantlyand
evenbegantocatchupwiththelevelofpopularityofVladimir:Putin.Notsurprisinglythemediahave
beguntohighlighttheachievementsoftheFSBattheexpenseofpublicinterestintheSyrian
successesoftheMinistryofDefenseanditshead.TheCrimeanintriguewasonemoreadvertisement
fortheRussianSilovikibeforetheelections.

And:WilltherebeEARLYRussianpresidentialelections[dosrochnyevybory]?Writinginslon.ru
KonstantinGAAZEsaysyes:http://slon.ru/posts/71986

ThepresidentialelectionswilltakeplaceaftertheAmericanelectionsbutnolaterthanMarch2017
[!].

And:AndreiKOLESNIKOVwritingforCarnegieMoscowsaysno:Playingthelonggame:WhyPutin
wontcallasnappresidentialelection,http://carnegie.ru/2016/08/18/putinwontcallsnap
presidentialelection/j3rl

And:MANAFORTisgonebuthisdisciplesremainonTrumpselectionteam:Clintoncampaign
managerwonderswhetherTrumpisjustaPUPPETfortheKREMLIN,slate.com,8/22

And:Thedaily202:RussianMEDDLINGinU.S.electionbackfiringonPutin,hurtingTrump,
washingtonpost.com,8/23

And:KremlinsaysPutin,MERKEL,HOLLANDEtomeettodiscussUkraineatG20onSept.45,
reuters.com,8/23
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/09/201608:54:33AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:"GunsofAugust:FearsofFULL-SCALEWARreturnascasualtiesmountinUkraine,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27910909.html6-
Subject:
pagereport

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,August09,20168:54AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"GunsofAugust:FearsofFULL-SCALEWARreturnascasualtiesmountinUkraine,"
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27910909.html6-pagereport

And:NewLEVADACENTERPOLL:Pollshowsover80percentofRussianscallsituationinEASTERN
UKRAINEtense,critical,kyivpost.com,8/9

Twothirds(62percent)ofRussiancitizensdescribedthesituationintheeastofUkraineastense;
another20percentcalleditcriticalandexplosive.

And:AlexanderJ.MOTYL,KremlintightensgriponDEVASTATEDDONBAS,wordaffairsjournal.org,
8/4

And:WhatlifeislikeinUkrainiancontrolledSLAVYANSKtwoyearsafterthewar(11pagereport):
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3058802

And:Russianjetsdrop[incendiary]THERMITEBOMBSonSyriancity,telegraph.co.uk,8/8

And:FiftyG.O.P.officialswarnDonaldTRUMPwouldputnationssecurityATRISK,nytimes.com,
8/8

FiftyofthenationsmostseniorRepublicannationalsecurityofficials,manyofthemformertopaides
orcabinetmembersforPresidentGeorgeW.Bush,havesignedaletterdeclaringthatDonaldJ.Trump
lacksthecharacter,valuesandexperiencetobepresidentandwouldputatriskourcountrys
nationalsecurityandwellbeingManyofthosesigningithaddeclinedtoaddtheirnamestothe
letterreleasedinMarchbutsaidinrecentinterviewsthattheychangedtheirmindsoncetheyheard
Mr.TrumpinviteRussiatohackMrs.ClintonsemailserverThey[also]viewedMr.Trumps
commentsonNATOasanabandonmentofAmericasmostsignificantalliancerelationship.

And:TatyanaSTANOVAYA,101onSILOVIKIwarsinRussia:Whosideswithwhomandwhoopposes
whom?http://intersectionproject.eu/article/security/101silovikiwarsrussiaItemflaggedby
AndersASLUND

And:DeputyheadofRussianCentralBanklinkedtoMoscowMAFIAReports,themoscotimes.com,
8/9

And:MorethanaquartermillionRussianshavedemandedtheresignationof{Dmitrii]MEDVEDEV,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/08/08/1539031.html

From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201612:47:29PM
To: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

Ontheinternets.......

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at3:14PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

"itwasonawebsite"

<image.jpg>

OnAugust5,2016at3:05:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

Ha!Tweetthequestion:wherewastheleakpublished?

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at2:56PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

ThatIcan'tfindanythingwhenIsearchformakesmewonderifhe'stwistingor
misremembering,tobehonest.

OnAugust5,2016at2:47:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

ThanksKevin.Buthedoesn'tsaywheretheleakwaspublished.

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at2:04PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

IassumehestalkingaboutEdVerona,butIdontrecallanythingaboutthisinthenews.

http://twitter.com/McFaul/status/761622551852220416

<ScreenShot2016-08-05at2.04.00PM.png>

OnAugust1,2016at3:30:44AM,RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/ho
w-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthe
PutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutin
Playbook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
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138

Photo

ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.
Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/06/201607:03:53AM
To: MargaretH<m.hh1@hotmail.com>
Subject: Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary|NewYorkPost

Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary
Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary

Hillaryhasbecomeaspookscandidate.FormerdeputyCIADirectorMichaelMorell,whosoconvenientlycoveredher
tracksinBenghazi,hasnowconfirmedit.

InaglowingendorsementhisfriendsatTheNewYorkTimesprominentlyfeaturedFriday,Morellgavehisfull-throated
supporttoClinton,whileinsistingthathewasnopartisanandhadevenvotedRepublicaninthepast.

Likeanobedientpartyhackvyingforanewjob,MorellspoutedthepartylinethatDonaldTrumpwasnotonly
unqualifiedforthejob,buthemaywellposeathreattoournationalsecurity.

ModalTrigger

MichaelMorellPhoto:Getty

Thosearestrongwords,especiallycomingfromsomeonewhoweareledtobelieveisanunimpeachablesource.Butis
he?

Thenon-partisanMorellwascaughtmis-speakingtoCongressabouthisroleinsanitizingtheinfamousCIAtalking
pointspreparedforUSAmbassadorSusanRicetodeliverontheSundaytalkshowsaftertheBenghaziattacks.And
whenhewascaughtout,likeafaithfulsoldier,hefellonhissword.

Hereshowithappened:AfterSusanRicesoutlandishclaimsontheSundaytalkshowsthattheBenghaziattacksbegan
asaspontaneousprotestoverahatefulYouTubevideo,Congressbeganaskingwhereshehadgottenthatinformation.
Thisishowlawmakersdiscoveredthattheintelligencecommunityhaddraftedhertalkingpoints,withinputfromtheWhite
HouseandHillaryClintonsstaff.

EarlydraftsofthetalkingpointsincludedamentionofalQaeda.Butthatreferencewasremovedinthefinaldrafts.Sen.
LindsayGrahamexplainedtomewhathappenednext.

OnNov.27,2012,MorellandSusanRicecameintomyoffice,hetoldme.IaskedMorellwhochanged[thetalking
points].Hesaid,theFBIdeletedthereferencetoalQaedabecauseofanongoingcriminalinvestigation.SoIcalledthe
FBI.Theysaid,no,theydidntchangethetalkingpoints.Theywerefurious.

Apparently,thatwasanunderstatement:SomeoneataseniorlevelatFBIcalledtheCIAtoprotestdirectly.Graham
continuedthestory:At4p.m.thatday,CIAcalledmeandsaidMorellmis-spokeinhismeetingwithme,andthatCIA
deleted[thereferencetoalQaeda],buttheycouldntgiveareasonwhy.

Grahamthoughtthereasonwasobvious:IfthetruthhadbeenknownthatalQaedakilledfourAmericanssevenweeks
beforeanelection,itwouldhavebeenadifferentpoliticalstory.

RememberwhatObamaandhissurrogatesweresaying?Osamaisdead,GMisalive.Thatwastheircampaignmantra.

Infact,itwasMorellhimselfwhomadethosechanges.

MorellsubsequentlytestifiedbeforetheHouseSelectCommitteeonIntelligence,andeventuallybeforetheBenghazi
SelectCommittee,twistinghimselfintoapretzeltoexplainwhyheremovedanymentionofthealQaedainvolvementin
theattacks.

HeultimatelyclaimedhebelievednewsreportscallingtheBenghaziattacksaprotestgonewildweremorecrediblethan
repeatede-mailsandcablesfromhisownstationchiefinLibyainsistingtherehadneverbeenaprotest.

Itwasanadmissionofgrossincompetenceorpartisanship.ButthatwasthepartylineClintonwasputtingout.

Morellwasrewardedafterthe2012election.WhenheretiredfromCIA,MorelltookapositionwithBeaconGlobal
Strategies,acompanycofoundedbyAndrewShapiroandPhilippeReines,membersofHillaryClintonsinnercircleatthe
StateDepartment.

InhisTimesop-ed,MorellclaimsDonaldTrumpisanunwittingagentofRussiabecausehemakesfriendlyremarks
towardPutin.ButTrumphasnevertakenadimefromPutin.Aswenowknow,Clintonandherhusbandhaveboth
profitedhandsomelyfromtheirrelationstoRussianstate-ownedbanksandcorporationsandactuallyhelpedRussia
getitshandsonacompanywithrightstoafifthofUSuranium.DoesthatmakeherawittingagentofRussia?

Thisformerspookswillingnesstoskewerthetruthonbehalfofapoliticalpatronshouldsufficetomakeanythinking
personrejecthisjudgment.

AsforthetruthaboutHillary,well,weveseenhersellingpoliticalfavorstoforeigncountriesandcompanieswhile
secretaryofstatethroughtheClintonFoundation.AndlyingtothepublicincessantlyaboutBenghazi,here-mails,you
nameit.Justimaginewhatshelldoifelectedpresident.

KennethR.Timmermanslatestbook,Deception:theMakingoftheYouTubeVideoHillaryandObamaBlamedfor
Benghazi,wasreleasedtwoweeksagoandisalreadyinits4thprinting.

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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
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FW:FPIOvernightBrief:August23,2016[MaterialRelevanttoUkraine&'FrontlineStates']..FPSituationReport[MaterialRelevantto
Subject:
Ukraine&'FrontlineStates'].[VRT]NYTHEADLINE:Ukrainian-Americans,LongFondoftheG.O.P.,GreetDonaldTr...

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----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Tue,Aug23,2016at8:39AM
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:August23,2016
To:walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIOvernightBrief
August23,2016

TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,Ideas,Events

Announcements TheMust-Reads
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking ISISincreasinglyturnstochildsuicidebombers
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
FPIsKahn:Russia,Iranescalatemilitaryties
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI
BretStephens:Thenewdictatorsclub
OvernightBrief.
UNofficialcallscrisisinAleppotheapexofhorror
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofor Insidethebrutal,bureaucraticworldofISISinLibya
theYemenconflict.
Obamaconfrontsnewpoliticaldynamicsontrade

Miller,Payne:Thedangersofnuclearno-first-use

WaPo:BidenneedstogiveErdogansometoughadvice

IranexpandingterrornetworkinLatinAmerica

MiddleEast/NorthAfrica
Iran

TheWhiteHouseandStateDepartmentgaveconflictingexplanationsMondayfortheadministrationsalleged$400millionransompaymentto
Iran,withPresidentObamasspokesmanstillinsistingthemoneywaspartofanoldarmsdealandaspokesmanatFoggyBottomconcedingagain
thatitwasleveragetogainthereleaseoffourAmericanhostages.WashingtonTimes

Sen.RoyBluntwantsSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytoprovide"adetailedaccounting"ofthe$400millioncashpaymenttoIranthatwaslinkedto
thereleaseofAmericanhostagesheldthere.WashingtonExaminer

TheStateDepartmentwarnedMondaythatAmericanstravelingtoIranrunariskofbeingarrestedanddetained,inanoticethatupdateditsprior
warningaboutIrantravelfrommid-March.WashingtonExaminer

FPISeniorPolicyAnalystTzviKahnwrites:RussiasrecentuseofanIranianairbasetobombtargetsinSyriareflectsaburgeoningstrategic
partnershiprootedinsharedregionalobjectives.ThoughTehranterminatedthearrangementtodaylikelyduetodomesticperceptionsthatit
renderedtheIslamistregimeasubordinateofMoscow,theepisodedemonstratesthatbothcountries,workingintandem,seektoundermineU.S.
interestsandleadershipintheregion.WashingtoncannolongerregardeithergovernmentaspartnerstodefeattheIslamicState.ForeignPolicy
Initiative

LeeSmithwrites:If,asRosett'sstorysuggests,the13paymentstheJudgmentFundsenttotheStateDepartmentrepresentsthe$1.3billionin
interest,theadministrationhassomequestionstoanswer.Wastheinterestpaidincashlikethe$400million,orbywire?Ifthelatter,whywasthe
$400millionpaidincash?TheWeeklyStandardBlog

Syria

IranonMondayannulledpermissionforRussianplanestoflybombingrunsintoSyriafromanIranianbase,onlyaweekafterhavinggranted
suchextraordinaryaccess,sayingthattheKremlinhadbeenunacceptablypublicandarrogantabouttheprivilege.NewYorkTimes

TurkeyshelledIslamicState-heldterritoryacrosstheborderinSyriaonTuesday,keepinguparetaliationcampaignforaweekendbombingthat
rippedthroughaweddingcelebrationandkilled54people.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Foryears,theSyriangovernmentandU.S.-backedKurdishforcessharedcontrolofHasakah,acityinSyriasnortheast.Butlastweek,the
KurdishmilitiaknownasthePeoplesProtectionUnits,orYPG,launchedanassaultongovernment-controlledareasofthecity,activistssaid
markingariftbetweenonetimealliesandfurtherblurringthelinesbetweenthewarringsidesinSyriasbloodyinternecinecivilwar.LosAngeles
Times

ThetopaidofficialattheUnitedNationsgaveagloomyassessmentoftheSyriareliefeffortonMonday,sayingnoconvoydeliverieshadbeen
madetobesiegedareasthismonthandthatthesufferinginAleppo,onceSyriascommercialepicenter,wastheapexofhorror.NewYorkTimes

AfteryearsoftacitlyallowingthecreationofanautonomousKurdishregioninnorthernSyria,PresidentBasharal-Assadsregimeistreatingthe
ethnicminoritysgrowingpowerasathreat.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

IransparliamentspeakerAliLarijanisaysRussianwarplanesarestillusinganIranianmilitarybasetostriketargetsinSyria.RadioFree
Europe/RadioLiberty

TheUSandRussiahaveyettofinalizeanagreementoncoordinatedeffortsinSyria,withPentagonspokesmanPeterCookwarningMondaythat
theclockisrunningonthewindowforthoseconversations.DefenseNews

U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrysaidtalksbetweentheUnitedStatesandRussiaonmilitarycooperationinthefightagainsttheIslamicState
terroristgroupinSyriaarenearinganend.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheU.S.militaryveeredtowarddeclarationofano-flyzoneinSyriaMonday,butstoppedshortofusingthecontroversialtermthatwouldsetthe
stageforadirectconfrontationwiththeSyrianairforce.MilitaryTimes

TheUnitedNationsisreadytodeliveraidintoSyria'sAleppo,butneedscommitmentsfromallpartiesinthewar-notjustRussia-toabidebya
48-hourhumanitariantruce,theU.N.aidchief,angeredbylackofassistancetocivilians,saidonMonday.-Reuters

Turkey

BloodstainsandbrokenbodiesleftafterTurkeysdeadliestbombingthisyearcruellyunderscorethecomplexrivalriesswirlingamongtheTurkish
government,theSunnimilitantsofIslamicStateandmembersofTurkeyslargestethnicminority,theKurds.LosAngelesTimes

AnoddthinghashappenedinTurkey.Usuallydeeplypolarized,thetwosidesarelargelyunitedintheiroppositiontomilitarycoupsandthe
movementofFethullahGulen,aMuslimclericwholivesinself-exileinPennsylvaniaandhasbeenaccusedbyTurkeyoforchestratingthefailed
uprising.NewYorkTimes

ThelandmarkagreementthathaltedatorrentofmigrantsflowingfromTurkeyintoEuropeisnearingcollapseinthewakeofthefailedTurkish
coupandthesubsequentnationwidecrackdown.WashingtonPost

TurkeyvowedMondaytofightIslamicStatemilitantsathomeandto"cleanse"thegroupfromitsbordersafteraweekendsuicidebombingata
Kurdishwedding,anattackthatcameamidrecentgainsbySyrianKurdishmilitiaforcesagainsttheextremistsinneighboringSyria.Associated
Press

Withsuspicionsonbothsidesmounting,theUnitedStatesisstrugglingtopreserveitswobblypartnershipwithTurkeyasitentertainsacloser
relationshipwithRussiaandfumesoveraU.S.-basedclericitblamesfororchestratinglastmonth'sfailedcoupattempt.AssociatedPress

Turkishauthoritiessuspended95Istanbulpoliceofficers,includingpolicechiefs,onMonday,broadcasterCNNTurkreported,thelateststepsina
sweepingcrackdowntotargetsecurityforcesfollowingafailedcouplastmonth.-Reuters

TurkeyiswithdrawingitsambassadortoAustria,theTurkishforeignministersaidMonday,amidagrowingdiplomaticspat.AssociatedPress

Editorial:Mr.BidenoughttocandidlytellhishostthattheUnitedStatesdidnotinstigatethecoupandthatitwillnotrelinquishMr.Gulentoa
witchhunt.Mr.Erdoganmaynotwanttohearit,buthealsoshouldberemindedthatcrushingtheruleoflawwilldimTurkeysprospects.Mr.
Erdoganmaybaskinthecrowdstoday,butusingthecoupasapretexttopurgethemedia,academiaandotherspheresofindependentvoiceswill
notstrengthenthenationinthelongrun.WashingtonPost

ReturntoTop

Asia
EastAsia

AstheChineseeconomyslows,theregimeisrampingupanassaultondissidentsandothersitbrandsastroublemakers.Callittherepression
index.Oneofthebestindicatorsofthecountryseconomicdirectionisnowapoliticalone.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

AsiafacesaredrawingofthegeopoliticalorderifDonaldTrumpbecomesUSpresidentaprospectthatalarmsWashingtonsallieswhile
handingagifttoChina,itsprincipalrival.FinancialTimes

Interview:AstheintersectionofAsia-Pacificcountriesmaritimeinterestsbecomesincreasinglycomplex,theregionalmaritimecommonshavein
turnbecomeasalientfactorinthestrategiccalculusofU.S.interests.HowtheUnitedStatesinteractswithvestedplayersandrespondsto
contingencieswillhaveimplicationsforthefutureoftheregionalsecurityarchitectureandshapethecontentofinternationalnormsintheyearsto
come.Againstthiscriticalbackdrop,NBRinterviewedAdmiralJonathanGreenert(ret.),formerU.S.chiefofnavaloperationsandthecurrent
holderofNBRsJohnM.ShalikashviliChairinNationalSecurityStudies.NationalBureauofAsianResearch

KoreanPeninsula

SouthKoreaandtheUnitedStatesbeganannualmilitarydrillsMondaydespiteNorthKorea'sthreatofnuclearstrikesinresponsetotheexercises
thatitcallsaninvasionrehearsal.AssociatedPress

NorthKoreahaslaidlandminesintheDemilitarizedZone(DMZ)betweenthetwoKoreas,theSouth'sYonhapnewsagencyreportedonTuesday,
astensionroseonthedividedpeninsulaafterthestartofannualU.S.-SouthKoreanmilitaryexercises.-Reuters

BruceKlingerwrites:WashingtonmustsharpenthechoiceforNorthKoreabyraisingtheriskandcostforitsactionsaswellasforthoseofits
enablersparticularlyBeijingwhohavewillinglyfacilitatedtheregimesprohibitedprogramsandillicitactivitiesandcondoneditshuman
rightsviolations.WashingtonTimes

SoutheastAsia

AmidrisingtensionswiththeObamaadministrationanditsneighborsacrossEastAsia,ChinawillholdaweekofnavaldrillswithRussiainthe
SouthChinaSeanextmonth,thetwocountriessaidMonday.WashingtonTimes

PhilipBowringwrites:InachallengetoChinasclaimtoalmosttheentireso-calledSouthChinaSea,Indonesiaannouncedlastweekthatitwill
designatethewatersoffitsnortherncoast,aroundtheNatunaandAnambasislands,astheNatunaSea.Thisismorethanjustpetty
nationalism.ItsahelpfulmarkerthatthetermSouthChinaSeaisarecentinventionwithnobasisinhistory.WallStreetJournal(subscription
required)

ReturntoTop

Security
Defense

NavalAirForcesCommanderViceAdm.MikeShoemakerisstillatalosstoexplainhowtheNavysufferedthreeClassAmishapsandthreelost
aircraftinaneight-dayperiodinMayandJuneofthisyear.But,headded,it'sjustashardtoexplainhowthefleetwentthepreviouseightmonths
withjustonemishap.Military.com

TheF-35IntegratedTestForceatEdwardsAirForceBase,California,completed25weaponstestmissionsoverthecourseofamonth,JPO
officialsannouncedtoday.Thesemissionsincluded12weaponsdeliveryaccuracytestsand13weaponsseparationtestsonatleastfivedifferent
weaponssystems,officialssaid.DODBuzz

TheNavyisdevelopinglighter-weightanti-submarinetechnologydesignedtobetterenableitsLittoralCombatShiptotrack,locateanddestroy
enemysubmarinesallwhilerecognizingpotentialrivalsRussiaandChinacontinuetorapidlydevelopnewsubmarineweaponsand
technologies.ScoutWarrior

NuclearWeapons

KeithPayneandFranklinMillerwrite:ThespectrumofmilitarythreatstotheUnitedStatesandourallieshasexpandedconsiderablyasRussia
andChinahavepursuedmilitarybuildupsandaggressivepoliciesinEuropeandAsiarespectively.USadoptionofano-first-usepolicynow
wouldonlyreflectwillfulUSdetachmentfromtheseglobalrealities,andwouldbeperceivedassuchbyfriendsandfoesalike.BulletinofAtomic
Scientists

Intelligence

TheonlineleakofdatapilferedfromtheNationalSecurityAgencymorelikelycamefromanagencyinsiderthanfromhackerslinkedtoRussia,
accordingtoanexpertontheintelligencecommunity.WashingtonExaminer

ReturntoTop

Russia/Europe
WesternEurope

GOPpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrumpcallsitanunmitigateddisasterforGermany,butGermansthemselvesaremoreevenlydividedover
ChancellorAngelaMerkelsopen-doorpolicyformigrantsseekingtoenterthecountryfromSyria,Afghanistanandotherworldcrisisspots.
WashingtonTimes

Innearlyeveryterroristepisodehere[inFrance],ordinaryindividualsriskedtheirownsafetytotrytohalttheattackortolendahandtothe
woundedratherthanrunningaway.Someoftheselocalheroesarerecognizedrightaway,thoughothersneverreceiverecognitionandsome
receiveitonlybelatedly.NewYorkTimes

NicolasSarkozyannouncedhiscandidacyforthe2017FrenchpresidentialelectionsMonday,fouryearsafterhepledgedtoretirefrompolitics
whenhewasdefeatedbySocialistFranoisHollande.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

EasternEurope

IntheshadowofMoscowsaggressioninCrimeaandeasternUkraine,thelargelysymbolicEstonianpresidencyhasgainedweightpartlythanks
toincumbentToomasHendrikIlvesstrongargumentsfortheEuropeanUnionandNATOtostandbyEstoniaanditsBalticneighbors.-Politico

AnnaNemtsovawrites:Inbothcountries,coverageofthepoliticalchaosintheUnitedStatesthenorthstarofpoliticsforbothanti-American
andpro-AmericanfiguresinthispartoftheworldisstirringpublicdiscontentanddoubtaboutthefutureinUkraine,andasenseofconfidence,
evenarrogance,inRussia.-Politico

EuropeanUnion

LeadersfromFrance,GermanyandItalyproposedMondaytostepupcooperationinareassuchasintelligencesharingandborderdefense,
withoutgivinganysignthattheywillgrowclosereconomicallyinresponsetoBritishvotersrecentdecisiontoleavetheEU.WallStreetJournal
(subscriptionrequired)

Germany,FranceandItalywillbethethreemostimportantnationsleftintheEuropeanUnionafterBritainsstunningdecisioninJunetoleavethe
bloc.YetallaresubstantiallyweakenedbynaggingdomesticproblemsatacriticalmomentwhenEuropeneedsanewdirection.NewYorkTimes

TheleadersofGermany,FranceandItalydeclaredtheywouldnotallowBritainsdeparturefromtheEUtopropeltheblocintoreverseasthey
discussedplanstodeepenintelligenceco-operationandbolsterapan-Europeaninvestmentplan.FinancialTimes

ReturntoTop

Americas
UnitedStatesofAmerica

HannahThoburnwrites:Trumphasalreadyprovenhimselftobeanegothatiseasilymanipulated,hasbeenopentotheideaofrecognizing
Russias2014annexationofCrimea,andisopenlylaudatoryofPutinsrule.TheKremlinpreferstheuncertaintyofaTrumppresidencytoaClinton
leadershipthathasbeenvocalaboutitsdesiretoholdthemtoaccountfortheirvariousinvasionsandhumanrightsviolations.Itdoesntlooklike
theyregoingtogetit.TheCipherBrief

LatinAmerica

IranissolidifyingitsfootholdinLatinAmerica,sparkingconcernsamongU.S.officialsthattheIslamicRepublicwillenlisttheseregionalalliesin
itspushtolaunchterrorattacksonU.S.soil,accordingtoconversationswithcongressionalsources.WashingtonFreeBeacon

IthasnotbeenthatlongsinceColombiasbloodyhistoryhasledtoitsownexodus.ButthathasreversedasColombianearsapossiblepeace
agreementandVenezuelasinksdeeperintodespairwiththeunpopularPresidentNicolsMaduroatthehelm.FinancialTimes

PresidentNicolasMadurohasseta48-hourdeadlineforministerstodismisssomepublicworkerswhorequestedarecallreferendumagainsthim,
aSocialistPartyspokesmansaidMonday.Hundredsofpublicworkershavealreadysaidtheyweredismissedforsigningapetitionfora
referendumagainsttheunpopularpresident,accordingtotestimonyseenbyReuters,humanrightsgroupsandlocalmedia.-Reuters

Kickingoffasix-daytourofLatinAmerica,IranianForeignMinisterMohammadJavadZarifsaidonMondayinHavanahisvisitwouldopena
newchapterintheIslamicRepublic'srelationswithCommunist-ruledCuba.-Reuters

LuisFleischmanwrites:Thecountriesoftheregionneedtotiltthebalancetobuildaregionthatsupportsdemocracyandostracizestyranny.The
movementisslowbutbetterthannone.WeneedmoreKuczynskisandAlmagrosinLatinAmerica.WeurgeLatinAmericanleaderstotakea
principledpositionnowandrepudiatetheMadurosandtheOrtegasoftheregion.TheAmericasReport

ReturntoTop

Ideas
BretStephenswrites:Perhapsitsineverystrongmansnaturetoseekandadmirehispoliticalreflectionwhereverhefindsit,whetheritsinaczar,
anayatollah,asultanorageneralsecretary.Thenagain,whatmainlyunitestheleadersofthenewdictatorsclubisthesharedperceptionthat
theystandtoloseverylittleinworkingagainstacountrytheydetestandapresidenttheycontemn.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

MarkKennedywrites:ThoseleadersforwhomtheNavyhasnamedaircraftcarriersserveasexamplestobefollowed.AbrahamLincoln,Theodore
Roosevelt,DwightEisenhower,RonaldReagan,andGeorgeH.W.BushareallguidestowhomRepublicansshouldlookforinstructiononhowto
leadinawaythatattractsotherstoAmericasside.HarryTruman,JohnStennis,andCarlVinsonserveasguidestoDemocratslookingtorebuild
Americasstick.ForeignPolicysShadowGovernment

ReturntoTop

Events

HowObamaDefiedWashingtonandRedefinedAmericasRoleintheWorld
GermanMarshallFund
August23

ReturntoTop

TheFPIOvernightBriefisadailyproductoftheForeignPolicyInitiative,whichseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreignpolicycommittedto
robustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmericasglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Tosubmitcommentsorsuggestions,emailovernight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Tue,Aug23,2016at8:03AM
Subject:SituationReport:U.S.No-FlyZoneinSyria?TopGeneralSkepticalOverRussianDealKurdsinNewFight
RussianHackfailAndLotsMore
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

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SITUATIONREPORT

TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffromForeign
Policy

Tuesday,August23,2016 SUBSCRIBETOFP

FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley

Nofly?Noway.AmericanjetsscrambledovernorthernSyriatwicelastweektochase
awaySyrianwarplaneswhichhadbombedU.S.-backedKurdishforces--coming
uncomfortablyclosetoagroupofAmericancommandosadvisingtheKurds.Afterward,
U.S.militaryleadersissuedasternwarningtoboththeSyriansandRussiansnottofly
combatoperationsinareaswhereAmericansareoperating.

Ifthatsoundslikeano-flyzone,thePentagonwouldrespectfullydisagree.Spokesman
PeterCookinsistedMondaythatwearegoingtotelltheSyriansandanyoneelsewho
maythreatenourforceinthatareathatwewilldefendthemandtheyhavearightto
defendthemselves.But"it'snotanoflyzone,"hesaid.

Inalongback-and-forthwithreportersduringaMondaypressconferenceatthe
Pentagon,Cookalsoswipedatanissuethathaslongbeenthefocusofdebate:whether
theUnitedStateswoulduseforcetoprotectU.S.-backedKurdishandSyrianArabrebels
onthegroundinSyria.Thoseforcesthataretakingthefightto[ISIS]andpartneredwith
us,willenjoythesupportoftheUnitedStates,Cooksaid,adding,we'regoingto
continuetosupport,andprotect,andprovidethatmilitarysupportforourcoalitionforces
and...ourcoalitionpartneredoperationsontheground.

DangerousnewfightfortheKurds.TheSyrianbombingrunscomeamidheavy
clashesbetweentheSyrianregimeandKurdishforces,whohavemostlykeptashaky
peaceinnorthernSyria.TheWallStreetJournalpointsoutthatthefightingcomes
amidawarmingofrelationsbetweenTurkeyandMr.AssadsalliesRussiaandIran.
TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganmetwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinin
MoscowthismonthfollowedbyavisitbyTurkeysforeignministertoIran.Kurdish
leadersseetheregimesnewaggressiontowardtheirforcesasasignofa
rapprochementbetweenSyriaandTurkeyinaconflictwithconstantlyshiftingalliances.

OnTuesday,SyrianKurdishforcessaidthatafterdaysofintensefightingwiththeSyrian
army,theyhadgainedcontroloveralmosttheentirecityofHasakah,andthat
governmentforcesweresurroundedinafewbuildingsinthecenterofthecity.

Dealornodeal.ThetopAmericanmilitaryofficerinIraqsayshesskepticalthat
WashingtonandMoscowcanreachanyrealagreementtoshareintelonISISandNusra
frontinSyria,butthathecangetthejobdone,regardless.Lt.Gen.StephenTownsend,
whotookcommandonSunday,said"asasoldier,I'mfairlyskepticaloftheRussians,"
andheshesitant"tobelievethecoalitioncancooperatewiththem."SecretaryofState
JohnKerrysteamisleadingthetalkswithRussia,butspeakinginKenyaonMonday,
Kerrydidntsoundlikeamanwhowasabouttostrikeadeal.itismyhopethatweare
reachingtheendofthosediscussionsonewayortheother,hesaid,adding,itis
possiblethatsomethingcouldbeagreedatuponbeforetheendofthemonthbutIcan't
tellyouwhetherit'slikely.Iwouldn'texpressoptimism--Iwouldexpresshope."

Hackslack.Warismessy,andmistakesaremade.ButinRussiasinformationwar
againsttheWest,mistakesaremadeandthenpublishedforalltheworldtosee.FPs
EliasGrollflagsagoodone,writingthataftertwosupposedlyindependenthacking
groups,believedbysecurityexpertstohavetiestotheKremlin,postedthesame
documentsstolenfromaphilanthropyrunbyGeorgeSoros.Butthehackincludeda
twist:Someofthedocumentstakenbyonegroupwerealteredinabidtotryandlink
SorostoRussiananti-corruptionactivistAlexeiNavalny,revealinghowhackers
likelyworkingforMoscowareeditingdocumentstosmeartheirvictims.

China

ChinesemilitaryjetsflewintoSouthKorea'sairdefenseidentificationzone(ADIZ)just
asthetwocountries'foreignministersaresettomeet.TheKoreaTimesreportsthat
threeChineseplanesshowedupatthemarginsofthetwocountries'ADIZs,prompting
SouthKoreatoscramblefighterjetstointerceptthem.Theincidentcomesbefore
Wednesday'smeetingofforeignministersfromJapan,China,andSouthKoreafor
talksinTokyo.ThetalksarelikelytotouchondisagreementbetweenChinaandSouth
KoreaoverthedeploymentofaU.S.TerminalHighAltitudeAreaDefense(THAAD)
systemtodefendagainstNorthKoreanballisticmissiles.Chinaopposesthedeployment,
fearingthesystemcouldbeusedtotargetChinesemissiles,aswellasNorthKorean
ones.

Europe

FinlandismovingquicklytosignanagreementwiththeUnitedStatesonclosermilitary
cooperation,Reutersreports.Thedealdoesn'tinvolveNATOorcommitmentsfor
collectivedefense,butwouldincreasejointtrainingandinformation-sharing.Themove
followsincreasedanxietiesintraditionallyneutralFinlandoveranincreasingly
aggressiveRussia.Finnishofficialsaretryingtohurrytheagreementthroughinthe
waningdaysoftheObamaadministrationbeforeanewadministrationcomesin.

LithuaniahassignedadealwithGermany'sRheinmetalltoarmorupitsmilitary,
accordingtoUPI.Thedeal,worth$441million,willsupply88Boxerinfantryfighting
vehiclesequippedwith30mmcannons.Thevehiclesareexpectedtobedelivered
through2021.

RegisteratForeignPolicy.comtoreceiveSituationReportandotherFPnewsletters.

TRENDINGONFOREIGNPOLICY.COM

NeverTrump.And
NeverHillary ThePartyIsOver American
ClintonEither. inRio

LeadershipCan
SurviveTodays

byPeterFeaverWill byRiordanRoett

Inboden


Storm
byMarkR.Kennedy


Thisemailwassenttowaz2102@columbia.edubyfp@foreignpolicy.com.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Tue,Aug23,2016at7:36AM
Subject:NYTHEADLINE:Ukrainian-Americans,LongFondoftheG.O.P.,GreetDonaldTrumpWithDespair
To:

Ukrainian-Americans,LongFondofthe
G.O.P.,GreetDonaldTrumpWithDespair
BySHERYLGAYSTOLBERGAUG.22,2016

Photo
TarasSzmagalalastweekatSt.JosaphatEparchialCemeteryinParma,Ohio.Thecemeteryhasamonument
dedicatedtoUkrainianfreedomfighterswhofoughtanddiedinWorldWarII.CreditJeffSwensenforTheNew
YorkTimes

PARMA,OhioAsaproudUkrainian-American,TarasSzmagalahasworkedfordecadestoelect
Republicans,thepartyheassociateswithfreedom.HerananethnicoutreachprogramforRichardM.
Nixons1972campaignandadvisedPresidentGeorgeBushastheSovietUnioncrumbled,when
Ukrainebecameanindependentnation.

Mr.Szmagala,83,willmarkWednesdays25thanniversaryofstatehoodataparadeandfestivalon
SaturdayinthisClevelandsuburb,wheretheblueandyellowflagofUkrainefliesalongthemain
thoroughfareinUkrainianVillage.

Butthereisapalloverthefestivities.HisnameisDonaldJ.Trump.

Ukrainian-AmericanshavefeltathomeintheRepublicanPartysinceFranklinD.RooseveltandStalin
dividedcontrolofEuropeatYalta.ButacrosstheUnitedStatesandespeciallyinswingstateOhio,
whereMr.Trumpbecamethepartysnomineetheyarewatchingthe2016presidentialracewitha
mixofconfusionandfear.

ThepartysdeadasfarasImconcerned,Mr.Szmagaladeclared.

AsifMr.TrumpsadmiringstatementsaboutPresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaand
hisquestionableexplanationofeventsinUkrainewerenottoughenoughtostomach,then
camenewsthatPaulManafort,untillastweekMr.Trumpscampaignmanager,wastangledupina
corruptioninquiryanddesignatedtoreceivemillionsinsecretcashpaymentsfromthepartyofapro-
Russianleaderhehadhelpedtoelect.

Allsummer,UkrainiansmanyofthemalreadywaryofHillaryClinton,theDemocraticnominee
havebeenobsessingoverAmericanpolitics.TheUkrainianWeekly,aNewJersey-basednewspaper
thathasbeencarefullytrackingthethreatofaRussianinvasionofUkraine,isawashinpolitical
commentary,includingarebukeofMr.TrumpbythecountrysambassadortotheUnitedStates.
AvoteforTrumpisavoteagainstUkraine!wroteonelongtimeRepublicanfromMorristown,N.J.,in
alettertotheeditor.

NearlyonemillionAmericansareofUkrainiandescent,clusteredaroundcitieslikeNewYork,
Philadelphia,Chicago,DetroitandCleveland,wheretheUkrainianMuseum-Archives,arichrepository
offolkart,periodicalsandimmigrationdocuments,chroniclesthehistoryofapeoplewhohavefelt
oppressedbyRussiafor350years.Currentlyondisplay:PoliticsandUkrainian-Americans,an
exhibitincludingaphotographofayoungMr.SzmagalawithNixon.

Mr.Szmagala,standingnexttoRichardM.Nixon,rananethnicoutreachprogramforNixons1972
campaign.CreditJeffSwensenforTheNewYorkTimes

Thereare,ofcourse,loyalDemocratsherethemuseumsresidentscholar,AndrewFedynsky,once
chiefofstafftoaDemocraticcongresswoman,isone.ButmanyUkrainian-Americansaredeeply
skepticalofPresidentObamaandMrs.Clinton,whomtheyregardasnotaggressiveenoughin
protectingUkraineagainstanincursionfromRussia.

SotheabsenceofafriendlyRepublicanisgeneratingaparticulardespair.

Itsveryconfusing,saidEugeneLuciw,aPhiladelphialawyerwhoisactiveinUkrainianaffairsthere.
ItsbeendifficulttowrapyourhandsaroundMr.Trump.

Mr.ManafortsabruptdeparturedoesnotchangethatmanyUkrainianswanttoknowwhyhewas
hiredinthefirstplace.Still,saidAndriyFutey,theexecutivevicepresidentoftheUkrainianCongress
CommitteeofAmericawhoisinKiev,Ukrainescapital,fortheanniversarycelebrationandtomeet
withgovernmentleaderstherewasasighofrelieftherewhenMr.Manafortquit.

HereinParma,ClevelandscenterofUkrainianculturalandreligiouslife,theangstcoupledwith
whatmanycallabittersweetcelebrationofanationwhoseindependencefeelsthreatenedisclear.

AtSt.VladimirUkrainianOrthodoxCathedral,whereagranitemonumenttovictimsoftheman-
madefamine,whichtheUkrainiangovernmentrecognizesasagenocide,standsinagarden,asmall
groupofparishionersgatheredlastweekasablack-robedpastorservedtheMoleben,aprayerforthe
healthandwell-beingofthesick.

GeneBoyko,75,whosegrandfatherwasbanishedtoSiberiabyStalin,wasamongthemheandhis
parentsescapedduringWorldWarIIandarrivedinNewYorkwhenhewas10.
Whenwegothere,evenasa10-year-old,Iwantedtokisstheground,hesaid.Hehaslongvoted
Republican,butiswaitingforthedebatestomakeuphismindaboutMr.Trump.

OksanaZavhorodnyuk,44,sellspirogiandotherUkrainianfoodsinParma.IdontlikeTrump,shesaid.
Hesnotinhismind,youknow?Itslike,notpresidentforAmerica.CreditJeffSwensenforTheNewYork
Times

AtStateMeats,alocalbutchershopandsmokehouse,GeorgeSalo,theowner,waspreparingtomake
severalthousandpoundsofkielbasatheworldsbest!heboastedforthecomingparade.Mr.
Salo,31,tookovertheshopwhenhewas17,afterhisfatherdied,andlearnedbusinessbyreading
booksincludingsomebyMr.Trump,whomheadmiresasanentrepreneur.

Butasfortheelection,ImtellingeverybodyImvotingforGaryJohnson,hesaid,referringtothe
Libertariannominee.

Atthetakeoutrestaurantnextdoor,OksanaZavhorodnyuk,44,wasservingschnitzelandjumbo
pirogifrombehindacounter.Shewrinkledhernosewhenaskedaboutthepresidentialrace.

IdontlikeTrump,shevolunteered,inEnglishthatisstillhalting,thoughshehasbeenherefor25
years.HelikesRussiahelikesPutin.Hesnotinhismind,youknow?Itslike,notpresidentfor
America.

TheTrumpcampaignsaysitisnotconcerned.Mr.TrumphastremendoussupportinOhio,andhe
willcontinuetosharehismessageofchange,hisspokeswoman,HopeHicks,wroteinanemail.

UkrainiansarrivedinAmericainfourdistinctwaves,beginninginthelate1800s,andmanyeventually
settledinsuburbslikeParma.InOhio,theyarepartofabroadblocofvoterswhotracetheirancestry
toEasternandCentralEuropeannationsincludingPoland,Estonia,Lithuania,Latvia,theCzech
RepublicandSlovenia,thehomelandofMr.Trumpswife,Melania.

Inthisswingstate,politiciansofbothpartiesaggressivelycourtwhattheycalltheethnicvote.Last
week,SenatorRobPortman,anendangeredOhioRepublican(andco-chairmanoftheSenateUkraine
Caucus),metprivatelywithethnicleadershere.Onebigissue:AttheRepublicanNationalConvention
inJulyinCleveland,theTrumpcampaignstrippedthepartyplatformoflanguagecallingforthe
UnitedStatestoprovidelethalweaponstoUkraine.
GeorgeSaloinhisbutchershopinParmasUkrainianVillage.HeadmiresMr.Trumpasanentrepreneurbut
said,ImtellingeverybodyImvotingforGaryJohnson,theLibertariannominee.CreditJeffSwensenforThe
NewYorkTimes

Democrats,seizingonapotentialvulnerabilityforMr.Trump,areincreasingtheirownethnicoutreach
thisyear,aneffortthathasbeencaughtupinRussianpoliticalintrigue.

Thepersonalemailsofthewomanrunningtheoutreacheffort,AlexandraChalupa,wereamongthose
hackedattheDemocraticNationalCommittee,abreachAmericanintelligenceofficialsattributeto
Russianspies.Ms.Chalupa,whoisofUkrainiandescent,hadbeenresearchingMr.Manafortwhile
consultingforthecommitteewhenthehackoccurred.Shehasbeentravelingthecountry,talkingto
Democratsaboutwhatshehasfound.

IdtalkabouttheRussiaconnectionandwhatwewereseeing,shesaidinaninterview.Peoplewere
terrified.

Still,Mrs.Clintonmayhaveanuphillbattle.ThePodestaGroup,aWashingtonfirmco-foundedby
JohnD.Podesta,hercampaignchairman,hassurfacedinthesamecorruptioninvestigationthathas
entangledMr.Manafort.

TheuneaseisaboutManafort,theuneaseisaboutPodestaallofthemhavebeengettingmoney
funnelinginfromRussia,saidMichaelKoziupa,aUkrainian-AmericanleaderinNewJersey.

ForMr.Szmagala,aretiredClevelandtransitofficialwhohasdevotedhislifetoUkrainianaffairsand
Republicanpolitics,thecampaignisespeciallypainful.HehasfondmemoriesofaflightaboardAir
ForceTwowithGeorgeBush,thenthevicepresident.AndafterUkrainedeclareditsindependence,
Mr.Bush,thenthepresident,senthimthereaspartoftheofficialdelegationforasomberceremonyat
BabiYar,asiteofmasskillingsbytheNazis.

Mr.SzmagalahasbeenadelegatetoRepublicanconventionsinthepastthisyear,thoughnational
Republicansgatheredinhisbackyard,hestayedaway.HehasnevervotedforaDemocratfor
president,andismindfulofOhiosstatusasaswingstate.HeisnoteagertovoteforMrs.Clinton.

Butifitsclose,hesaid,Illdoit.Itllhurt,butIlldoit.

Correction:August22,2016
Anearlierversionofthisarticleandapicturecaptionmisstatedtheyearofthepresidentialelection
inwhichTarasSzmagalaassistedRichardM.Nixon.Itwas1972,not1968.

FollowSherylGayStolbergonTwitter@sherylstolberg

Findoutwhatyouneedtoknowaboutthe2016presidentialracetoday,andgetpoliticsnewsupdates
viaFacebook,TwitterandtheFirstDraftnewsletter.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/23/201609:41:50AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[ITEMSOFINTEREST8-22][MOJO/PAULRG]YELLOW(MAYBERED)CARDFORBOTHCAMPS.[MB]Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes-BBCNews.[HU]TWOPIECESTOWATCH[ED:RUSSIABEING"SOFT-SOLD"TWOPRIMEEXAMPLES.IE."IFON...

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,August22,201611:40AM
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFINTEREST8-22][MOJO/PAULRG]YELLOW(MAYBERED)CARDFORBOTHCAMPS.[MB]Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes-BBCNews.[HU]TWOPIECESTOWATCH[ED:RUSSIABEING"SOFT-SOLD"TWOPRIMEEXAMPLES.IE."IFON...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at2:36PM
Subject:[ITEMSOFINTEREST8-22][MOJO/PAULRG]YELLOW(MAYBERED)CARDFORBOTHCAMPS.[MB]Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes-BBCNews.[HU]TWOPIECESTOWATCH[ED:RUSSIABEING"SOFT-SOLD"TWOPRIME
EXAMPLES.IE."IFONLYTHEU.S.LEARNEDTOHUGVLADMORE"]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<jm200p@mac.com>
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at11:19AM
Subject:WhatTrumpHasinCommonWithPutinsCloseAllies&PromisedprosperityneverarrivedinRussian-heldCrimea,localssay
To:waz<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Perhapsthese2articlesareofinterest

http://bit.ly/2bc8I86Trump

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-idUSKCN10W0EM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JustinPetty<jpetty@stanford.edu>
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at11:32AM
Subject:Re:PutinOctobersurprisewouldbeHillary'sfault
To:paulroderickgregory<pgregory@stanford.edu>,JenniferMayfield<jmayfiel@stanford.edu>,BrianBonner<bribonner@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,JohnBatchelor<tippaine@gmail.com>,JoelWeickgenant<jweickgenant@realclearworld.com>,"MariaE.Thorbourne"
<mariat@stanford.edu>,JerryMungai<jmungai@pacbell.net>

ThanksPaul.

JustinPetty

SocialMediaandCommunicationsManager

HooverInstitution|StanfordUniversity

From:paulroderickgregory<pgregory@stanford.edu>
Sent:Sunday,August21,20165:57:33PM
To:JustinPetty;JenniferMayfield;BrianBonner;WalterZaryckyj;JohnBatchelor;JoelWeickgenant;MariaE.Thorbourne;JerryMungai;WalterZaryckyj
Subject:PutinOctobersurprisewouldbeHillary'sfault

Ihttp://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/08/21/could-putin-leak-incriminating-hillary-clinton-emails-as-an-october-surprise/#5c8456c74a5a

IfWikiLeaksreleasesincriminatingdocumentsfromHillarysscrubbedprivatecache,thereexistsnolegitimatetruedocumentforcomparison.Hillarycouldnotprovetheleakeddocumentneverexistedorwasaltered,unlessshesquirreledawayinsome
safeplacecopiesofherprivatecache.Ifso,shecouldnotusethemwithoutexposinganunforgivablelie.Hillarysdeletingofthethousandsofself-declaredprivateemailsmayhavegivenahostileforeignpowerthewherewithaltodeterminetheoutcome
ofapresidentialelection.Hillaryhasnoonetoblamebutherself.WillthechickenscomehometoroostinlateOctober?

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at12:50PM
Subject:Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37154043

Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes

ReutersUsingtheIranianairbasereducedthedurationoftheRussianbombers'missions

RussiahasstoppedusinganIranianairbasetobombtargetsinSyria,bothcountrieshavesaid.

IranianforeignministryspokesmanBahramQasemisaidtheoperationwas"overfornow"andtheplaneshadgone.

Iran'sDefenceMinisterHosseinDeghanhadearliercriticisedRussiaforpublicisingtheraidslastweek,sayingithadexhibiteda"show-off"attitude.

RussiaforitsparthasconfirmedthatallofitsplanesusedfromIranforSyriastrikesarenowbackinRussia.

Russia.likeIran,isakeyallyofSyria'sPresidentBasharal-Assad.

IsbloodiedSyrianboyOmranDaqneeshjustanotherimage?
WhyisthereawarinSyria?
WhatisleftofSyria?

LastTuesday,Russia'sdefenceministryannouncedthatTupolev-22M3long-rangebombersandSukhoi-34strikefightershadusedtheShahidNojehairbaseneartheeasterncityofHamedantocarryoutairstrikeson"terrorists"inSyria.

TheraidswerethefirstcarriedbyRussiafromathirdcountrysinceitbegananaircampaignagainstMrAssad'sopponentsalmostayearago,andalsothefirstlaunchedfromIraniansoilbyaforeignmilitarysinceWorldWarTwo.
RussianowsaysthataircraftwhichwerebasedattheHamedanairbasearenolongerlocatedthereandhavereturnedtotheRussianFederation.

DefenceministryspokesmanIgorKonashenkovwasquotedbytheInterfaxnewsagencyassayingthatfutureuseofthebasewillnowonlytakeplace"onthebasisofmutualagreementsbetweenthetwocountriesonthefightagainstterrorismandwilldependon
developmentsinSyria".

ThesecretaryofIran'sSupremeNationalSecurityCouncil,AliShamkhani,previouslylaudedthe"strategic"co-operationwithRussia.ButsomeMPscomplainedthatitbreachedtheIslamicRepublic'sconstitution,whichprohibitsallowingforeignmilitariestobebasedon
itsterritory.

InaninterviewwithstateTVonMonday,GenDeghanstressedthatRussiawouldonlyusetheNojehairbase"foraveryshortandfixedspan,corresponding[toan]operationinSyria".

EPATheTU-22M3shadpreviouslybeenforcedtoflymissionsfromRussia

GenDeghanwasaskedwhyRussiahadchosentorevealitspresencetherewhereasIranhadnot.

"TheRussiansareinterestedtoshowtheyareasuperpowertoguaranteetheirshareinthepoliticalfutureofSyriaand,ofcourse,therehasbeenakindofshow-offandungentlemanly[attitude]inthisfield."

GenDeghanexplainedthatRussiahad"decidedtobringinmoreplanesandboostitsspeedandaccuracyinoperations".

AFPRussia'sdeploymenttoIrancameamidanescalationinfightinginandaroundAleppo

"Therefore,itneededtorefuelinanareaclosertotheoperation.That'swhytheyusedtheNojehbase.Butwehavedefinitelynotgiventhemamilitarybase."

Hourslater,MrQasemiannouncedthatRussia'sdeploymenthadended.

AFPBahramQasemileftopenthepossibilityoffutureRussiancombatflightsfromIran

"Itwasaspecific,authorisedmissionandit'soverfornow.Theyconducteditandtheyaregonenow,"hewasquotedbytheofficialnewsagencyassaying.

TheUS,whichbackstheoppositiontoSyria'spresident,hadsaidRussia'suseoftheIranianbasewas"unfortunatebutnotsurprising".

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at2:05PM
Subject:TWOPIECESTOWATCH[ED:RUSSIABEING"SOFT-SOLD"TWOPRIMEEXAMPLES.IE."IFONLYTHEU.S.LEARNEDTOHUGVLADMORE"]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

Russia'sEurasianidentityaspartofitsstrategy

Putinisabletothinkstrategically,usingallhardandsoftpowertoolstopromoteRussianforeignpolicyinterests.

ARussiannavyshiplaunchesacruisemissileintheCaspianSea[AP]
by
LukeCoffey @lukedcoffey

LukeCoffeyisaresearchfellowspecialisingintransatlanticandEurasiansecurityataWashingtonDC
basedthinktank.HepreviouslyservedasaspecialadvisertotheBritishdefencesecretaryandwasa
commissionedofficerintheUnitedStatesarmy.

AsMoscowcontinuesitsaggressivebehaviourtowardsEasternEuropeandexpandsitsaircampaigninsupportofPresidentBasharal-AssadinSyria,itsabilitytouseitsstatusasaEurasianpowertoadvanceitsforeignpolicygoalsinthese
regionshasgonevirtuallyunnoticedbyWesternpolicymakers.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasleveragedRussianinfluenceinone
regiontoadvanceitsinterestsinanother.Threerecentactionsbest
demonstratethis.

CruisemissilesandtheCaspian

RussiadefendsusingIranbaseforSyriaairstrikes
ThefirstdemonstratorofsuchleverageisRussia'suseoftheCaspianSeafor
itsoperationsinSyria.TheCaspianSeasitsonacrucialcrossroadslocatedat
theheartoftheEurasiancontinentandthroughouthistoryhashadan
importantgeopoliticalsignificanceforRussia.
OverthepastseveralmonthsRussianshipsformingpartoftheCaspian
Flotillahavefireddozensofcruisemissileshittingtargets1,500kmawayin
Syria.MoscowchosetheCaspianfortheselauncheseventhoughalternative
sitesmuchclosertoSyriaareavailable.
SowhywouldRussiagothroughtheextratroubleoflaunchingfromthe
Caspian?Inreality,Russia'suseoftheCaspianhadverylittletodowith
SyriaitselfandalottodowithRussia'sroleintheregion.
ThesestrikesprovedtotheothercountriesaroundtheCaspian-asea
whoselegalstatusandownershipofresourcesisdisputed-thatRussiais
thedominantmilitarypower.
AlsoitallowedRussiatotestboththecruisemissilesandthecorvettefrom
whichtheywerefiredinareal-lifecombatsetting.
Russiaknowsthatitiseasiertoexport"combat-tested"equipmentand
Moscowiseagertoexportbothtoboostitsdefenceindustry.

Iranianairbase
SeconddemonstratorwastherecentannouncementthatRussiaisusing
basesinIrantocarryoutairstrikesinSyria.
Fromstrictlyamilitarypointofviewthismakesperfectsense.Inthepast,
RussianbombersmadethejourneytoSyriaallthewayfrombasesinthe
NorthCaucasus.
Theextrafuelneededtomakethelongreturntripmeantthattheplanes
carriedfewerbombs.UsingtheIranianairbaseatHamadanallowsRussian
bomberstobesignificantlyclosertotargetsinSyria.Thismeansmore
sortiesandmorebombsthatcanbedropped.

TotheaverageWesternobserver,Russia'srecentactionsintheCaspian,
IranoritsCSTOmilitaryexerciseareviewedasthreedifferentand
unrelatedthings.ForPutin,Russia'sactionsinthesethreeregionsare
partsofaninterconnectedanddeliberategrandstrategy.

Butmorethanthat,MoscowandTehranaresendingastrongsignalto
WashingtonandtheArabSunniworldabouttheirplaceintheongoing
competitionforpowerandinfluenceintheMiddleEast.
WhiletheRussianuseoftheairbasemaybetemporary,itshouldbe
recognisedaspartofalong-termefforttopromoteaMoscow-Tehran-
DamascusagendaintheMiddleEast.

CentralAsiaonNATO'sdoorstep
Finally,lastweekRussiaheldthefirsteverCollectiveSecurityTreaty
Organisation(CSTO)trainingexercisesalongtheborderofNATO.
TheCSTOisaMoscow-ledcollectivesecurityorganisationthatincludes
Kazakhstan,Armenia,Belarus,Kyrgyzstan,andTajikistan.
ThefactthattheCSTOheldamajormilitaryexerciseisnothingnew.Whatis
noteworthy,however,isthattheexercisetookplaceinRussia'sPskov
oblast,whichbordersNATOmembersEstoniaandLatvia.
OPINION:Russia'semergingnavalpresenceintheMediterranean

ThisisthefirsttimethataCSTOtrainingexercisehastakenplacesocloseto
aNATOborder.Unsurprisinglythistrainingexercisehasraisedeyebrows
acrossEuropeancapitalswhenconsideringsomeofthebellicoserhetoric
comingfromtheKremlintowardstheBalticstates.
ThisCSTOtrainingexerciseindicatesanumberofthingsaboutMoscow's
influenceintheformerSovietUnion.
ItistellingthatRussiawasabletogettroopsfromKazakhstan,Armenia,
Belarus,Kyrgyzstan,andTajikistantoparticipateinwargamessocloseto
NATO'sborder.EspeciallyforacountrylikeKazakhstanwhichitselfhas
concernsaboutMoscowmeddlinginthenorthernpartofthecountrywhere
manyethnicRussianslive.

Strategicthinking
WhatdothesethreerecenteventstellusaboutRussianforeignpolicy?
Putinisabletothinkstrategically,usingallhardandsoftpowertoolsto
promoteRussianforeignpolicyinterests.
TotheaverageWesternobserver,Russia'srecentactionsintheCaspian,
IranoritsCSTOmilitaryexerciseareviewedasthreedifferentandunrelated
things.ForPutin,Russia'sactionsinthesethreeregionsarepartsofan
interconnectedanddeliberategrandstrategy.

NotwithstandingthepossibleviolationofUNSecurityCouncil2231over
Russia'suseofbasesinIran,thereisnothingtosuggestthatanyofthese
threeactionswerewrong.
Indeed,theUnitedStatesandNATOdosimilarthings.TheUSanditsallies
useairbasesintheregiontostriketargetsinSyria.AndNATOholds
exercisesnotfarfromRussia'sborders.Astheysay,imitationisthe
sincerestformofflattery.
ItiswhenyouplaceRussia'srecentactivitiesintoalargercontextofregional
aggression-suchasinUkraine-thatthereiscauseforconcern.
LukeCoffeyisaresearchfellowspecialisingintransatlantic
andEurasiansecurityataWashingtonDC-basedthink-tank.
HepreviouslyservedasaspecialadvisertotheBritishdefence
secretaryandwasacommissionedofficerintheUnitedStates
Army.
Theviewsexpressedinthisarticlearetheauthor'sownanddo
notnecessarilyreflectAlJazeera'seditorialpolicies.

UPI

HOME/TOPNEWS/OPINION

Russia'snoWesterndemocracythatdoesn'tmakeitautomaticadversary
ByHarlanUllman,ArnauddeBorchgraveDistinguishedColumnist|Aug.22,2016at6:00AM

34Comments

Regardingmajorinterests,itwouldseemthatRussiaandtheUnitedStates(andtheWest)havemoreincommonthannot.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisshownhereonavisittoGreeceinMay.PhotobyVerveridisVasilis/Shutterstock

America'sinfatuationwithRussiacanformallybedatedfromMay1867whentheUnitedStatespaid$7.2million--worthabout$1.3billiontoday--forthepurchaseofAlaska.Called"Seward'sFolly"afterSecretaryofStateWilliamSewardwhonegotiatedthedeal,oneofthereasonsforthesalewasRussianexpectation

thatbybuyingAlaska,theUnitedStateswouldbecomeamoredeeplyinvolvedPacificpowerandacounterbalancetoBritain--theTsar'sgreaterworryatthetime.Eventhen,geopoliticswasnotanunknownarttoSt.PetersburgoutsidethetraditionalEuropeansphere.

Thatinfatuationhashadmanytwistsandturns.

Foratimeinthe1930s,theSovietUnionwasanidealizedworker'sparadiseforthoseAmericansseducedbycommunism.TheSpanishCivilWar,theproxyprecursorforWorldWarII,attractedasmallnumberofAmericanstofightontheSovietsideagainstthefascists.AndwithouttheSovietUnionforwhatRussiansstill
call"thegreatpatrioticwar,"defeatingHitlermighthavebeenimpossible.

TheColdWar,however,wasnearlyahalf-centurylongideologicalstruggleinwhichbothsidespromised,capturedinthewordsofJohnKennedy,to"payanypriceandbearanyburden"towin.Butonlyonesidedidwin--theWest.AndinthequarterofacenturysincetheUSSRimploded,relationshaverevertedtowhat
someinMoscowandtheWestarecallinga"newcoldwar."

Why?

Regardingmajorinterests,itwouldseemthatRussiaandtheUnitedStates(andtheWest)havemoreincommonthannot.AvertingconflicttoincludeendofthevirulentdangerofradicalandviolentIslamshouldbeself-evidentasmutuallybeneficial.Yet,thecrisisinSyria,whereeliminatingtheIslamicStateisacommonaim,
theUnitedStatesandRussiaarebitterlydividedoverthecontinuationofPresidentBasharal-Assadandhisregime.

Similarly,EastandWesthavecommoneconomicinterests.RussianeedstosellitsenergytotheWest.TheWestneedstosellitsproductstotheEast.ButbecauseofRussianinterventionintoUkraine,heavysanctionshavebeenimposedonMoscowthatarepainfultoallsides.

PresidentGeorgeW.BushcouldlookdeeplyintoVladimirPutin'seyesandasPrimeMinisterMargaretThatcherobservedofMikhailGorbachevagenerationbefore,believeeachcouldbeapartner.PresidentBarackObamacouldpushthe"resetbutton"withRussia,eventhoughitwasmisspelled,andsignaNewSTART

nuclearweaponsreductionstreaty.Still,tomostobservers,thisnewcoldwarhasfrozenarelationshipatlevelsunseensincebeforetheSovietUnioncollapsed.

ThereasonsarenotpersonalitydriveneventhoughObamaandPutindisplayamutualresentment.WhenChurchillmadehisfamous"enigmaandriddle"analogy,hewentontoaddthatRussiawasdrivenbyinterests.Andtheheartofthestandofftodayistherefusalofbothsidestounderstandtheinterestsoftheother.

WhentheColdWarended,theWesttriednottogloat.Forbetterorworse,RussianscametobelievethattheircountrywasperceivedwithlessrespectandhencewastoooftendisregardedbytheWest.TheexpansionofNATOEasttoinclude,first,threemajorformermembersoftheWarsawPact,Moscow's
counterbalancingalliance,wasnotwell-received.NorwastheaccessionofthethreeBalticandtwoBlackSeastates.

Thenin2008,attheNATOheadsofgovernmentsummitheldinBucharest,Romania,GeorgeW.BushextendedtoGeorgiaandUkrainetheprospectofmembership.Putin,whowaspresentatthesummit,issuedasternwarning,awarningthatwasnotfullyappreciated.Afewmonthslater,RussiatrickedGeorgianPresident
MikhailSakashvilliintosendingforcesintoSouthOssetiathatpromptedabrief,one-sidedresponsethatMoscoweasilywon.

Inearly2014,whenUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovychwasforcedtofleeKiev,RussiaintervenedandannexedCrimea.With"contestedborders"inbothGeorgiaandUkraine,NATOmembershipwasforeclosedbythefoundingWashingtonTreatyof1949thatdeniedanystateaccessunderthosecircumstances.Few
intheWestcomprehendedMoscow'sreasons.

Ofcourse,inaperfectworld,Moscowshouldnothaveusedforceineithercase.Unfortunately,WashingtonneverunderstoodhowmuchofathreatNATOexpansionwasperceivedbyMoscow.Andperhapsitstilldoesn't.

Finally,RussiaisnotandwillneverbeaWesterndemocracy.Thatdoesnotmakeitanautomaticadversary.Andmaybeweareariddleandenigma,too.

HarlanUllmanisUPI'sArnauddeBorchgraveDistinguishedColumnistandservesassenioradviserforSupremeAlliedCommanderEurope,theAtlanticCouncilandBusinessExecutivesforNationalSecurityandchairstwoprivatecompanies.Hislastbookis"AHandfulofBullets:HowtheMurderof

ArchdukeFranzFerdinandStillMenacesthePeace."Hisnextbook,dueoutnextyear,is"AnatomyofFailure:WhyAmericaLosesWarsItStarts."

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/23/201609:46:35AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:FPIOvernightBrief:August23,2016[MaterialRelevanttoUkraine&'FrontlineStates']..FPSituationReport[MaterialRelevantto
Subject:
Ukraine&'FrontlineStates'].[VRT]NYTHEADLINE:Ukrainian-Americans,LongFondoftheG.O.P.,GreetDonaldTr...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,August23,20167:14AM
Subject:Fwd:FPIOvernightBrief:August23,2016[MaterialRelevanttoUkraine&'FrontlineStates']..FPSituationReport[Material
RelevanttoUkraine&'FrontlineStates'].[VRT]NYTHEADLINE:Ukrainian-Americans,LongFondoftheG.O.P.,GreetDonaldTr...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Aug23,2016at10:10AM
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:August23,2016[MaterialRelevanttoUkraine&'FrontlineStates']..FPSituationReport
[MaterialRelevanttoUkraine&'FrontlineStates'].[VRT]NYTHEADLINE:Ukrainian-Americans,LongFondofthe
G.O.P.,GreetDonaldTrumpWithDespair
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Tue,Aug23,2016at8:39AM
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:August23,2016
To:walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIOvernightBrief
August23,2016

TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,Ideas,Events

Announcements TheMust-Reads
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking ISISincreasinglyturnstochildsuicidebombers
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
FPIsKahn:Russia,Iranescalatemilitaryties
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI
BretStephens:Thenewdictatorsclub
OvernightBrief.
UNofficialcallscrisisinAleppotheapexofhorror
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofor Insidethebrutal,bureaucraticworldofISISinLibya
theYemenconflict.
Obamaconfrontsnewpoliticaldynamicsontrade

Miller,Payne:Thedangersofnuclearno-first-use

WaPo:BidenneedstogiveErdogansometoughadvice

IranexpandingterrornetworkinLatinAmerica

MiddleEast/NorthAfrica
Iran

TheWhiteHouseandStateDepartmentgaveconflictingexplanationsMondayfortheadministrationsalleged$400millionransompaymentto
Iran,withPresidentObamasspokesmanstillinsistingthemoneywaspartofanoldarmsdealandaspokesmanatFoggyBottomconcedingagain
thatitwasleveragetogainthereleaseoffourAmericanhostages.WashingtonTimes

Sen.RoyBluntwantsSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytoprovide"adetailedaccounting"ofthe$400millioncashpaymenttoIranthatwaslinkedto
thereleaseofAmericanhostagesheldthere.WashingtonExaminer

TheStateDepartmentwarnedMondaythatAmericanstravelingtoIranrunariskofbeingarrestedanddetained,inanoticethatupdateditsprior
warningaboutIrantravelfrommid-March.WashingtonExaminer

FPISeniorPolicyAnalystTzviKahnwrites:RussiasrecentuseofanIranianairbasetobombtargetsinSyriareflectsaburgeoningstrategic
partnershiprootedinsharedregionalobjectives.ThoughTehranterminatedthearrangementtodaylikelyduetodomesticperceptionsthatit
renderedtheIslamistregimeasubordinateofMoscow,theepisodedemonstratesthatbothcountries,workingintandem,seektoundermineU.S.
interestsandleadershipintheregion.WashingtoncannolongerregardeithergovernmentaspartnerstodefeattheIslamicState.ForeignPolicy
Initiative

LeeSmithwrites:If,asRosett'sstorysuggests,the13paymentstheJudgmentFundsenttotheStateDepartmentrepresentsthe$1.3billionin
interest,theadministrationhassomequestionstoanswer.Wastheinterestpaidincashlikethe$400million,orbywire?Ifthelatter,whywasthe
$400millionpaidincash?TheWeeklyStandardBlog

Syria

IranonMondayannulledpermissionforRussianplanestoflybombingrunsintoSyriafromanIranianbase,onlyaweekafterhavinggranted
suchextraordinaryaccess,sayingthattheKremlinhadbeenunacceptablypublicandarrogantabouttheprivilege.NewYorkTimes

TurkeyshelledIslamicState-heldterritoryacrosstheborderinSyriaonTuesday,keepinguparetaliationcampaignforaweekendbombingthat
rippedthroughaweddingcelebrationandkilled54people.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Foryears,theSyriangovernmentandU.S.-backedKurdishforcessharedcontrolofHasakah,acityinSyriasnortheast.Butlastweek,the
KurdishmilitiaknownasthePeoplesProtectionUnits,orYPG,launchedanassaultongovernment-controlledareasofthecity,activistssaid
markingariftbetweenonetimealliesandfurtherblurringthelinesbetweenthewarringsidesinSyriasbloodyinternecinecivilwar.LosAngeles
Times

ThetopaidofficialattheUnitedNationsgaveagloomyassessmentoftheSyriareliefeffortonMonday,sayingnoconvoydeliverieshadbeen
madetobesiegedareasthismonthandthatthesufferinginAleppo,onceSyriascommercialepicenter,wastheapexofhorror.NewYorkTimes

AfteryearsoftacitlyallowingthecreationofanautonomousKurdishregioninnorthernSyria,PresidentBasharal-Assadsregimeistreatingthe
ethnicminoritysgrowingpowerasathreat.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

IransparliamentspeakerAliLarijanisaysRussianwarplanesarestillusinganIranianmilitarybasetostriketargetsinSyria.RadioFree
Europe/RadioLiberty

TheUSandRussiahaveyettofinalizeanagreementoncoordinatedeffortsinSyria,withPentagonspokesmanPeterCookwarningMondaythat
theclockisrunningonthewindowforthoseconversations.DefenseNews

U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrysaidtalksbetweentheUnitedStatesandRussiaonmilitarycooperationinthefightagainsttheIslamicState
terroristgroupinSyriaarenearinganend.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheU.S.militaryveeredtowarddeclarationofano-flyzoneinSyriaMonday,butstoppedshortofusingthecontroversialtermthatwouldsetthe
stageforadirectconfrontationwiththeSyrianairforce.MilitaryTimes

TheUnitedNationsisreadytodeliveraidintoSyria'sAleppo,butneedscommitmentsfromallpartiesinthewar-notjustRussia-toabidebya
48-hourhumanitariantruce,theU.N.aidchief,angeredbylackofassistancetocivilians,saidonMonday.-Reuters

Turkey

BloodstainsandbrokenbodiesleftafterTurkeysdeadliestbombingthisyearcruellyunderscorethecomplexrivalriesswirlingamongtheTurkish
government,theSunnimilitantsofIslamicStateandmembersofTurkeyslargestethnicminority,theKurds.LosAngelesTimes

AnoddthinghashappenedinTurkey.Usuallydeeplypolarized,thetwosidesarelargelyunitedintheiroppositiontomilitarycoupsandthe
movementofFethullahGulen,aMuslimclericwholivesinself-exileinPennsylvaniaandhasbeenaccusedbyTurkeyoforchestratingthefailed
uprising.NewYorkTimes

ThelandmarkagreementthathaltedatorrentofmigrantsflowingfromTurkeyintoEuropeisnearingcollapseinthewakeofthefailedTurkish
coupandthesubsequentnationwidecrackdown.WashingtonPost

TurkeyvowedMondaytofightIslamicStatemilitantsathomeandto"cleanse"thegroupfromitsbordersafteraweekendsuicidebombingata
Kurdishwedding,anattackthatcameamidrecentgainsbySyrianKurdishmilitiaforcesagainsttheextremistsinneighboringSyria.Associated
Press

Withsuspicionsonbothsidesmounting,theUnitedStatesisstrugglingtopreserveitswobblypartnershipwithTurkeyasitentertainsacloser
relationshipwithRussiaandfumesoveraU.S.-basedclericitblamesfororchestratinglastmonth'sfailedcoupattempt.AssociatedPress

Turkishauthoritiessuspended95Istanbulpoliceofficers,includingpolicechiefs,onMonday,broadcasterCNNTurkreported,thelateststepsina
sweepingcrackdowntotargetsecurityforcesfollowingafailedcouplastmonth.-Reuters

TurkeyiswithdrawingitsambassadortoAustria,theTurkishforeignministersaidMonday,amidagrowingdiplomaticspat.AssociatedPress

Editorial:Mr.BidenoughttocandidlytellhishostthattheUnitedStatesdidnotinstigatethecoupandthatitwillnotrelinquishMr.Gulentoa
witchhunt.Mr.Erdoganmaynotwanttohearit,buthealsoshouldberemindedthatcrushingtheruleoflawwilldimTurkeysprospects.Mr.
Erdoganmaybaskinthecrowdstoday,butusingthecoupasapretexttopurgethemedia,academiaandotherspheresofindependentvoiceswill
notstrengthenthenationinthelongrun.WashingtonPost

ReturntoTop

Asia
EastAsia

AstheChineseeconomyslows,theregimeisrampingupanassaultondissidentsandothersitbrandsastroublemakers.Callittherepression
index.Oneofthebestindicatorsofthecountryseconomicdirectionisnowapoliticalone.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

AsiafacesaredrawingofthegeopoliticalorderifDonaldTrumpbecomesUSpresidentaprospectthatalarmsWashingtonsallieswhile
handingagifttoChina,itsprincipalrival.FinancialTimes

Interview:AstheintersectionofAsia-Pacificcountriesmaritimeinterestsbecomesincreasinglycomplex,theregionalmaritimecommonshavein
turnbecomeasalientfactorinthestrategiccalculusofU.S.interests.HowtheUnitedStatesinteractswithvestedplayersandrespondsto
contingencieswillhaveimplicationsforthefutureoftheregionalsecurityarchitectureandshapethecontentofinternationalnormsintheyearsto
come.Againstthiscriticalbackdrop,NBRinterviewedAdmiralJonathanGreenert(ret.),formerU.S.chiefofnavaloperationsandthecurrent
holderofNBRsJohnM.ShalikashviliChairinNationalSecurityStudies.NationalBureauofAsianResearch

KoreanPeninsula

SouthKoreaandtheUnitedStatesbeganannualmilitarydrillsMondaydespiteNorthKorea'sthreatofnuclearstrikesinresponsetotheexercises
thatitcallsaninvasionrehearsal.AssociatedPress

NorthKoreahaslaidlandminesintheDemilitarizedZone(DMZ)betweenthetwoKoreas,theSouth'sYonhapnewsagencyreportedonTuesday,
astensionroseonthedividedpeninsulaafterthestartofannualU.S.-SouthKoreanmilitaryexercises.-Reuters

BruceKlingerwrites:WashingtonmustsharpenthechoiceforNorthKoreabyraisingtheriskandcostforitsactionsaswellasforthoseofits
enablersparticularlyBeijingwhohavewillinglyfacilitatedtheregimesprohibitedprogramsandillicitactivitiesandcondoneditshuman
rightsviolations.WashingtonTimes

SoutheastAsia

AmidrisingtensionswiththeObamaadministrationanditsneighborsacrossEastAsia,ChinawillholdaweekofnavaldrillswithRussiainthe
SouthChinaSeanextmonth,thetwocountriessaidMonday.WashingtonTimes

PhilipBowringwrites:InachallengetoChinasclaimtoalmosttheentireso-calledSouthChinaSea,Indonesiaannouncedlastweekthatitwill
designatethewatersoffitsnortherncoast,aroundtheNatunaandAnambasislands,astheNatunaSea.Thisismorethanjustpetty
nationalism.ItsahelpfulmarkerthatthetermSouthChinaSeaisarecentinventionwithnobasisinhistory.WallStreetJournal(subscription
required)

ReturntoTop

Security
Defense

NavalAirForcesCommanderViceAdm.MikeShoemakerisstillatalosstoexplainhowtheNavysufferedthreeClassAmishapsandthreelost
aircraftinaneight-dayperiodinMayandJuneofthisyear.But,headded,it'sjustashardtoexplainhowthefleetwentthepreviouseightmonths
withjustonemishap.Military.com

TheF-35IntegratedTestForceatEdwardsAirForceBase,California,completed25weaponstestmissionsoverthecourseofamonth,JPO
officialsannouncedtoday.Thesemissionsincluded12weaponsdeliveryaccuracytestsand13weaponsseparationtestsonatleastfivedifferent
weaponssystems,officialssaid.DODBuzz

TheNavyisdevelopinglighter-weightanti-submarinetechnologydesignedtobetterenableitsLittoralCombatShiptotrack,locateanddestroy
enemysubmarinesallwhilerecognizingpotentialrivalsRussiaandChinacontinuetorapidlydevelopnewsubmarineweaponsand
technologies.ScoutWarrior

NuclearWeapons

KeithPayneandFranklinMillerwrite:ThespectrumofmilitarythreatstotheUnitedStatesandourallieshasexpandedconsiderablyasRussia
andChinahavepursuedmilitarybuildupsandaggressivepoliciesinEuropeandAsiarespectively.USadoptionofano-first-usepolicynow
wouldonlyreflectwillfulUSdetachmentfromtheseglobalrealities,andwouldbeperceivedassuchbyfriendsandfoesalike.BulletinofAtomic
Scientists

Intelligence

TheonlineleakofdatapilferedfromtheNationalSecurityAgencymorelikelycamefromanagencyinsiderthanfromhackerslinkedtoRussia,
accordingtoanexpertontheintelligencecommunity.WashingtonExaminer

ReturntoTop

Russia/Europe
WesternEurope

GOPpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrumpcallsitanunmitigateddisasterforGermany,butGermansthemselvesaremoreevenlydividedover
ChancellorAngelaMerkelsopen-doorpolicyformigrantsseekingtoenterthecountryfromSyria,Afghanistanandotherworldcrisisspots.
WashingtonTimes

Innearlyeveryterroristepisodehere[inFrance],ordinaryindividualsriskedtheirownsafetytotrytohalttheattackortolendahandtothe
woundedratherthanrunningaway.Someoftheselocalheroesarerecognizedrightaway,thoughothersneverreceiverecognitionandsome
receiveitonlybelatedly.NewYorkTimes

NicolasSarkozyannouncedhiscandidacyforthe2017FrenchpresidentialelectionsMonday,fouryearsafterhepledgedtoretirefrompolitics
whenhewasdefeatedbySocialistFranoisHollande.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

EasternEurope

IntheshadowofMoscowsaggressioninCrimeaandeasternUkraine,thelargelysymbolicEstonianpresidencyhasgainedweightpartlythanks
toincumbentToomasHendrikIlvesstrongargumentsfortheEuropeanUnionandNATOtostandbyEstoniaanditsBalticneighbors.-Politico

AnnaNemtsovawrites:Inbothcountries,coverageofthepoliticalchaosintheUnitedStatesthenorthstarofpoliticsforbothanti-American
andpro-AmericanfiguresinthispartoftheworldisstirringpublicdiscontentanddoubtaboutthefutureinUkraine,andasenseofconfidence,
evenarrogance,inRussia.-Politico

EuropeanUnion

LeadersfromFrance,GermanyandItalyproposedMondaytostepupcooperationinareassuchasintelligencesharingandborderdefense,
withoutgivinganysignthattheywillgrowclosereconomicallyinresponsetoBritishvotersrecentdecisiontoleavetheEU.WallStreetJournal
(subscriptionrequired)

Germany,FranceandItalywillbethethreemostimportantnationsleftintheEuropeanUnionafterBritainsstunningdecisioninJunetoleavethe
bloc.YetallaresubstantiallyweakenedbynaggingdomesticproblemsatacriticalmomentwhenEuropeneedsanewdirection.NewYorkTimes

TheleadersofGermany,FranceandItalydeclaredtheywouldnotallowBritainsdeparturefromtheEUtopropeltheblocintoreverseasthey
discussedplanstodeepenintelligenceco-operationandbolsterapan-Europeaninvestmentplan.FinancialTimes

ReturntoTop

Americas
UnitedStatesofAmerica

HannahThoburnwrites:Trumphasalreadyprovenhimselftobeanegothatiseasilymanipulated,hasbeenopentotheideaofrecognizing
Russias2014annexationofCrimea,andisopenlylaudatoryofPutinsrule.TheKremlinpreferstheuncertaintyofaTrumppresidencytoaClinton
leadershipthathasbeenvocalaboutitsdesiretoholdthemtoaccountfortheirvariousinvasionsandhumanrightsviolations.Itdoesntlooklike
theyregoingtogetit.TheCipherBrief

LatinAmerica

IranissolidifyingitsfootholdinLatinAmerica,sparkingconcernsamongU.S.officialsthattheIslamicRepublicwillenlisttheseregionalalliesin
itspushtolaunchterrorattacksonU.S.soil,accordingtoconversationswithcongressionalsources.WashingtonFreeBeacon

IthasnotbeenthatlongsinceColombiasbloodyhistoryhasledtoitsownexodus.ButthathasreversedasColombianearsapossiblepeace
agreementandVenezuelasinksdeeperintodespairwiththeunpopularPresidentNicolsMaduroatthehelm.FinancialTimes

PresidentNicolasMadurohasseta48-hourdeadlineforministerstodismisssomepublicworkerswhorequestedarecallreferendumagainsthim,
aSocialistPartyspokesmansaidMonday.Hundredsofpublicworkershavealreadysaidtheyweredismissedforsigningapetitionfora
referendumagainsttheunpopularpresident,accordingtotestimonyseenbyReuters,humanrightsgroupsandlocalmedia.-Reuters

Kickingoffasix-daytourofLatinAmerica,IranianForeignMinisterMohammadJavadZarifsaidonMondayinHavanahisvisitwouldopena
newchapterintheIslamicRepublic'srelationswithCommunist-ruledCuba.-Reuters

LuisFleischmanwrites:Thecountriesoftheregionneedtotiltthebalancetobuildaregionthatsupportsdemocracyandostracizestyranny.The
movementisslowbutbetterthannone.WeneedmoreKuczynskisandAlmagrosinLatinAmerica.WeurgeLatinAmericanleaderstotakea
principledpositionnowandrepudiatetheMadurosandtheOrtegasoftheregion.TheAmericasReport

ReturntoTop

Ideas
BretStephenswrites:Perhapsitsineverystrongmansnaturetoseekandadmirehispoliticalreflectionwhereverhefindsit,whetheritsinaczar,
anayatollah,asultanorageneralsecretary.Thenagain,whatmainlyunitestheleadersofthenewdictatorsclubisthesharedperceptionthat
theystandtoloseverylittleinworkingagainstacountrytheydetestandapresidenttheycontemn.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

MarkKennedywrites:ThoseleadersforwhomtheNavyhasnamedaircraftcarriersserveasexamplestobefollowed.AbrahamLincoln,Theodore
Roosevelt,DwightEisenhower,RonaldReagan,andGeorgeH.W.BushareallguidestowhomRepublicansshouldlookforinstructiononhowto
leadinawaythatattractsotherstoAmericasside.HarryTruman,JohnStennis,andCarlVinsonserveasguidestoDemocratslookingtorebuild
Americasstick.ForeignPolicysShadowGovernment

ReturntoTop

Events

HowObamaDefiedWashingtonandRedefinedAmericasRoleintheWorld
GermanMarshallFund
August23

ReturntoTop

TheFPIOvernightBriefisadailyproductoftheForeignPolicyInitiative,whichseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreignpolicycommittedto
robustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmericasglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Tosubmitcommentsorsuggestions,emailovernight@foreignpolicyi.org.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Tue,Aug23,2016at8:03AM
Subject:SituationReport:U.S.No-FlyZoneinSyria?TopGeneralSkepticalOverRussianDealKurdsinNewFight
RussianHackfailAndLotsMore
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

S i t u a t i o n R e p o r t : U . S . N o - F l y Z o n e i n S y r i a ? T o p G e n e r a l S k e p t i c a l O v e r R u s s i a n D e a l K u r d s i n N e w F i g h t R u s s i a n H a c k f a i l A n d L o t s M o r e

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SITUATIONREPORT

TheNationalSecurityDailyBrieffromForeign
Policy

Tuesday,August23,2016 SUBSCRIBETOFP

FollowUs:

ByPaulMcLearywithAdamRawnsley

Nofly?Noway.AmericanjetsscrambledovernorthernSyriatwicelastweektochase
awaySyrianwarplaneswhichhadbombedU.S.-backedKurdishforces--coming
uncomfortablyclosetoagroupofAmericancommandosadvisingtheKurds.Afterward,
U.S.militaryleadersissuedasternwarningtoboththeSyriansandRussiansnottofly
combatoperationsinareaswhereAmericansareoperating.

Ifthatsoundslikeano-flyzone,thePentagonwouldrespectfullydisagree.Spokesman
PeterCookinsistedMondaythatwearegoingtotelltheSyriansandanyoneelsewho
maythreatenourforceinthatareathatwewilldefendthemandtheyhavearightto
defendthemselves.But"it'snotanoflyzone,"hesaid.

Inalongback-and-forthwithreportersduringaMondaypressconferenceatthe
Pentagon,Cookalsoswipedatanissuethathaslongbeenthefocusofdebate:whether
theUnitedStateswoulduseforcetoprotectU.S.-backedKurdishandSyrianArabrebels
onthegroundinSyria.Thoseforcesthataretakingthefightto[ISIS]andpartneredwith
us,willenjoythesupportoftheUnitedStates,Cooksaid,adding,we'regoingto
continuetosupport,andprotect,andprovidethatmilitarysupportforourcoalitionforces
and...ourcoalitionpartneredoperationsontheground.

DangerousnewfightfortheKurds.TheSyrianbombingrunscomeamidheavy
clashesbetweentheSyrianregimeandKurdishforces,whohavemostlykeptashaky
peaceinnorthernSyria.TheWallStreetJournalpointsoutthatthefightingcomes
amidawarmingofrelationsbetweenTurkeyandMr.AssadsalliesRussiaandIran.
TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganmetwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinin
MoscowthismonthfollowedbyavisitbyTurkeysforeignministertoIran.Kurdish
leadersseetheregimesnewaggressiontowardtheirforcesasasignofa
rapprochementbetweenSyriaandTurkeyinaconflictwithconstantlyshiftingalliances.

OnTuesday,SyrianKurdishforcessaidthatafterdaysofintensefightingwiththeSyrian
army,theyhadgainedcontroloveralmosttheentirecityofHasakah,andthat
governmentforcesweresurroundedinafewbuildingsinthecenterofthecity.

Dealornodeal.ThetopAmericanmilitaryofficerinIraqsayshesskepticalthat
WashingtonandMoscowcanreachanyrealagreementtoshareintelonISISandNusra
frontinSyria,butthathecangetthejobdone,regardless.Lt.Gen.StephenTownsend,
whotookcommandonSunday,said"asasoldier,I'mfairlyskepticaloftheRussians,"
andheshesitant"tobelievethecoalitioncancooperatewiththem."SecretaryofState
JohnKerrysteamisleadingthetalkswithRussia,butspeakinginKenyaonMonday,
Kerrydidntsoundlikeamanwhowasabouttostrikeadeal.itismyhopethatweare
reachingtheendofthosediscussionsonewayortheother,hesaid,adding,itis
possiblethatsomethingcouldbeagreedatuponbeforetheendofthemonthbutIcan't
tellyouwhetherit'slikely.Iwouldn'texpressoptimism--Iwouldexpresshope."

Hackslack.Warismessy,andmistakesaremade.ButinRussiasinformationwar
againsttheWest,mistakesaremadeandthenpublishedforalltheworldtosee.FPs
EliasGrollflagsagoodone,writingthataftertwosupposedlyindependenthacking
groups,believedbysecurityexpertstohavetiestotheKremlin,postedthesame
documentsstolenfromaphilanthropyrunbyGeorgeSoros.Butthehackincludeda
twist:Someofthedocumentstakenbyonegroupwerealteredinabidtotryandlink
SorostoRussiananti-corruptionactivistAlexeiNavalny,revealinghowhackers
likelyworkingforMoscowareeditingdocumentstosmeartheirvictims.

China

ChinesemilitaryjetsflewintoSouthKorea'sairdefenseidentificationzone(ADIZ)just
asthetwocountries'foreignministersaresettomeet.TheKoreaTimesreportsthat
threeChineseplanesshowedupatthemarginsofthetwocountries'ADIZs,prompting
SouthKoreatoscramblefighterjetstointerceptthem.Theincidentcomesbefore
Wednesday'smeetingofforeignministersfromJapan,China,andSouthKoreafor
talksinTokyo.ThetalksarelikelytotouchondisagreementbetweenChinaandSouth
KoreaoverthedeploymentofaU.S.TerminalHighAltitudeAreaDefense(THAAD)
systemtodefendagainstNorthKoreanballisticmissiles.Chinaopposesthedeployment,
fearingthesystemcouldbeusedtotargetChinesemissiles,aswellasNorthKorean
ones.

Europe

FinlandismovingquicklytosignanagreementwiththeUnitedStatesonclosermilitary
cooperation,Reutersreports.Thedealdoesn'tinvolveNATOorcommitmentsfor
collectivedefense,butwouldincreasejointtrainingandinformation-sharing.Themove
followsincreasedanxietiesintraditionallyneutralFinlandoveranincreasingly
aggressiveRussia.Finnishofficialsaretryingtohurrytheagreementthroughinthe
waningdaysoftheObamaadministrationbeforeanewadministrationcomesin.

LithuaniahassignedadealwithGermany'sRheinmetalltoarmorupitsmilitary,
accordingtoUPI.Thedeal,worth$441million,willsupply88Boxerinfantryfighting
vehiclesequippedwith30mmcannons.Thevehiclesareexpectedtobedelivered
through2021.

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----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Tue,Aug23,2016at7:36AM
Subject:NYTHEADLINE:Ukrainian-Americans,LongFondoftheG.O.P.,GreetDonaldTrumpWithDespair
To:

Ukrainian-Americans,LongFondofthe
G.O.P.,GreetDonaldTrumpWithDespair
BySHERYLGAYSTOLBERGAUG.22,2016

Photo
TarasSzmagalalastweekatSt.JosaphatEparchialCemeteryinParma,Ohio.Thecemeteryhasamonument
dedicatedtoUkrainianfreedomfighterswhofoughtanddiedinWorldWarII.CreditJeffSwensenforTheNew
YorkTimes

PARMA,OhioAsaproudUkrainian-American,TarasSzmagalahasworkedfordecadestoelect
Republicans,thepartyheassociateswithfreedom.HerananethnicoutreachprogramforRichardM.
Nixons1972campaignandadvisedPresidentGeorgeBushastheSovietUnioncrumbled,when
Ukrainebecameanindependentnation.

Mr.Szmagala,83,willmarkWednesdays25thanniversaryofstatehoodataparadeandfestivalon
SaturdayinthisClevelandsuburb,wheretheblueandyellowflagofUkrainefliesalongthemain
thoroughfareinUkrainianVillage.

Butthereisapalloverthefestivities.HisnameisDonaldJ.Trump.

Ukrainian-AmericanshavefeltathomeintheRepublicanPartysinceFranklinD.RooseveltandStalin
dividedcontrolofEuropeatYalta.ButacrosstheUnitedStatesandespeciallyinswingstateOhio,
whereMr.Trumpbecamethepartysnomineetheyarewatchingthe2016presidentialracewitha
mixofconfusionandfear.

ThepartysdeadasfarasImconcerned,Mr.Szmagaladeclared.

AsifMr.TrumpsadmiringstatementsaboutPresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaand
hisquestionableexplanationofeventsinUkrainewerenottoughenoughtostomach,then
camenewsthatPaulManafort,untillastweekMr.Trumpscampaignmanager,wastangledupina
corruptioninquiryanddesignatedtoreceivemillionsinsecretcashpaymentsfromthepartyofapro-
Russianleaderhehadhelpedtoelect.

Allsummer,UkrainiansmanyofthemalreadywaryofHillaryClinton,theDemocraticnominee
havebeenobsessingoverAmericanpolitics.TheUkrainianWeekly,aNewJersey-basednewspaper
thathasbeencarefullytrackingthethreatofaRussianinvasionofUkraine,isawashinpolitical
commentary,includingarebukeofMr.TrumpbythecountrysambassadortotheUnitedStates.
AvoteforTrumpisavoteagainstUkraine!wroteonelongtimeRepublicanfromMorristown,N.J.,in
alettertotheeditor.

NearlyonemillionAmericansareofUkrainiandescent,clusteredaroundcitieslikeNewYork,
Philadelphia,Chicago,DetroitandCleveland,wheretheUkrainianMuseum-Archives,arichrepository
offolkart,periodicalsandimmigrationdocuments,chroniclesthehistoryofapeoplewhohavefelt
oppressedbyRussiafor350years.Currentlyondisplay:PoliticsandUkrainian-Americans,an
exhibitincludingaphotographofayoungMr.SzmagalawithNixon.

Mr.Szmagala,standingnexttoRichardM.Nixon,rananethnicoutreachprogramforNixons1972
campaign.CreditJeffSwensenforTheNewYorkTimes

Thereare,ofcourse,loyalDemocratsherethemuseumsresidentscholar,AndrewFedynsky,once
chiefofstafftoaDemocraticcongresswoman,isone.ButmanyUkrainian-Americansaredeeply
skepticalofPresidentObamaandMrs.Clinton,whomtheyregardasnotaggressiveenoughin
protectingUkraineagainstanincursionfromRussia.

SotheabsenceofafriendlyRepublicanisgeneratingaparticulardespair.

Itsveryconfusing,saidEugeneLuciw,aPhiladelphialawyerwhoisactiveinUkrainianaffairsthere.
ItsbeendifficulttowrapyourhandsaroundMr.Trump.

Mr.ManafortsabruptdeparturedoesnotchangethatmanyUkrainianswanttoknowwhyhewas
hiredinthefirstplace.Still,saidAndriyFutey,theexecutivevicepresidentoftheUkrainianCongress
CommitteeofAmericawhoisinKiev,Ukrainescapital,fortheanniversarycelebrationandtomeet
withgovernmentleaderstherewasasighofrelieftherewhenMr.Manafortquit.

HereinParma,ClevelandscenterofUkrainianculturalandreligiouslife,theangstcoupledwith
whatmanycallabittersweetcelebrationofanationwhoseindependencefeelsthreatenedisclear.

AtSt.VladimirUkrainianOrthodoxCathedral,whereagranitemonumenttovictimsoftheman-
madefamine,whichtheUkrainiangovernmentrecognizesasagenocide,standsinagarden,asmall
groupofparishionersgatheredlastweekasablack-robedpastorservedtheMoleben,aprayerforthe
healthandwell-beingofthesick.

GeneBoyko,75,whosegrandfatherwasbanishedtoSiberiabyStalin,wasamongthemheandhis
parentsescapedduringWorldWarIIandarrivedinNewYorkwhenhewas10.
Whenwegothere,evenasa10-year-old,Iwantedtokisstheground,hesaid.Hehaslongvoted
Republican,butiswaitingforthedebatestomakeuphismindaboutMr.Trump.

OksanaZavhorodnyuk,44,sellspirogiandotherUkrainianfoodsinParma.IdontlikeTrump,shesaid.
Hesnotinhismind,youknow?Itslike,notpresidentforAmerica.CreditJeffSwensenforTheNewYork
Times

AtStateMeats,alocalbutchershopandsmokehouse,GeorgeSalo,theowner,waspreparingtomake
severalthousandpoundsofkielbasatheworldsbest!heboastedforthecomingparade.Mr.
Salo,31,tookovertheshopwhenhewas17,afterhisfatherdied,andlearnedbusinessbyreading
booksincludingsomebyMr.Trump,whomheadmiresasanentrepreneur.

Butasfortheelection,ImtellingeverybodyImvotingforGaryJohnson,hesaid,referringtothe
Libertariannominee.

Atthetakeoutrestaurantnextdoor,OksanaZavhorodnyuk,44,wasservingschnitzelandjumbo
pirogifrombehindacounter.Shewrinkledhernosewhenaskedaboutthepresidentialrace.

IdontlikeTrump,shevolunteered,inEnglishthatisstillhalting,thoughshehasbeenherefor25
years.HelikesRussiahelikesPutin.Hesnotinhismind,youknow?Itslike,notpresidentfor
America.

TheTrumpcampaignsaysitisnotconcerned.Mr.TrumphastremendoussupportinOhio,andhe
willcontinuetosharehismessageofchange,hisspokeswoman,HopeHicks,wroteinanemail.

UkrainiansarrivedinAmericainfourdistinctwaves,beginninginthelate1800s,andmanyeventually
settledinsuburbslikeParma.InOhio,theyarepartofabroadblocofvoterswhotracetheirancestry
toEasternandCentralEuropeannationsincludingPoland,Estonia,Lithuania,Latvia,theCzech
RepublicandSlovenia,thehomelandofMr.Trumpswife,Melania.

Inthisswingstate,politiciansofbothpartiesaggressivelycourtwhattheycalltheethnicvote.Last
week,SenatorRobPortman,anendangeredOhioRepublican(andco-chairmanoftheSenateUkraine
Caucus),metprivatelywithethnicleadershere.Onebigissue:AttheRepublicanNationalConvention
inJulyinCleveland,theTrumpcampaignstrippedthepartyplatformoflanguagecallingforthe
UnitedStatestoprovidelethalweaponstoUkraine.
GeorgeSaloinhisbutchershopinParmasUkrainianVillage.HeadmiresMr.Trumpasanentrepreneurbut
said,ImtellingeverybodyImvotingforGaryJohnson,theLibertariannominee.CreditJeffSwensenforThe
NewYorkTimes

Democrats,seizingonapotentialvulnerabilityforMr.Trump,areincreasingtheirownethnicoutreach
thisyear,aneffortthathasbeencaughtupinRussianpoliticalintrigue.

Thepersonalemailsofthewomanrunningtheoutreacheffort,AlexandraChalupa,wereamongthose
hackedattheDemocraticNationalCommittee,abreachAmericanintelligenceofficialsattributeto
Russianspies.Ms.Chalupa,whoisofUkrainiandescent,hadbeenresearchingMr.Manafortwhile
consultingforthecommitteewhenthehackoccurred.Shehasbeentravelingthecountry,talkingto
Democratsaboutwhatshehasfound.

IdtalkabouttheRussiaconnectionandwhatwewereseeing,shesaidinaninterview.Peoplewere
terrified.

Still,Mrs.Clintonmayhaveanuphillbattle.ThePodestaGroup,aWashingtonfirmco-foundedby
JohnD.Podesta,hercampaignchairman,hassurfacedinthesamecorruptioninvestigationthathas
entangledMr.Manafort.

TheuneaseisaboutManafort,theuneaseisaboutPodestaallofthemhavebeengettingmoney
funnelinginfromRussia,saidMichaelKoziupa,aUkrainian-AmericanleaderinNewJersey.

ForMr.Szmagala,aretiredClevelandtransitofficialwhohasdevotedhislifetoUkrainianaffairsand
Republicanpolitics,thecampaignisespeciallypainful.HehasfondmemoriesofaflightaboardAir
ForceTwowithGeorgeBush,thenthevicepresident.AndafterUkrainedeclareditsindependence,
Mr.Bush,thenthepresident,senthimthereaspartoftheofficialdelegationforasomberceremonyat
BabiYar,asiteofmasskillingsbytheNazis.

Mr.SzmagalahasbeenadelegatetoRepublicanconventionsinthepastthisyear,thoughnational
Republicansgatheredinhisbackyard,hestayedaway.HehasnevervotedforaDemocratfor
president,andismindfulofOhiosstatusasaswingstate.HeisnoteagertovoteforMrs.Clinton.

Butifitsclose,hesaid,Illdoit.Itllhurt,butIlldoit.

Correction:August22,2016
Anearlierversionofthisarticleandapicturecaptionmisstatedtheyearofthepresidentialelection
inwhichTarasSzmagalaassistedRichardM.Nixon.Itwas1972,not1968.

FollowSherylGayStolbergonTwitter@sherylstolberg

Findoutwhatyouneedtoknowaboutthe2016presidentialracetoday,andgetpoliticsnewsupdates
viaFacebook,TwitterandtheFirstDraftnewsletter.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/23/201609:41:50AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[ITEMSOFINTEREST8-22][MOJO/PAULRG]YELLOW(MAYBERED)CARDFORBOTHCAMPS.[MB]Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes-BBCNews.[HU]TWOPIECESTOWATCH[ED:RUSSIABEING"SOFT-SOLD"TWOPRIMEEXAMPLES.IE."IFON...

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,August22,201611:40AM
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFINTEREST8-22][MOJO/PAULRG]YELLOW(MAYBERED)CARDFORBOTHCAMPS.[MB]Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes-BBCNews.[HU]TWOPIECESTOWATCH[ED:RUSSIABEING"SOFT-SOLD"TWOPRIMEEXAMPLES.IE."IFON...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at2:36PM
Subject:[ITEMSOFINTEREST8-22][MOJO/PAULRG]YELLOW(MAYBERED)CARDFORBOTHCAMPS.[MB]Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes-BBCNews.[HU]TWOPIECESTOWATCH[ED:RUSSIABEING"SOFT-SOLD"TWOPRIME
EXAMPLES.IE."IFONLYTHEU.S.LEARNEDTOHUGVLADMORE"]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<jm200p@mac.com>
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at11:19AM
Subject:WhatTrumpHasinCommonWithPutinsCloseAllies&PromisedprosperityneverarrivedinRussian-heldCrimea,localssay
To:waz<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Perhapsthese2articlesareofinterest

http://bit.ly/2bc8I86Trump

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-crimea-idUSKCN10W0EM?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JustinPetty<jpetty@stanford.edu>
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at11:32AM
Subject:Re:PutinOctobersurprisewouldbeHillary'sfault
To:paulroderickgregory<pgregory@stanford.edu>,JenniferMayfield<jmayfiel@stanford.edu>,BrianBonner<bribonner@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,JohnBatchelor<tippaine@gmail.com>,JoelWeickgenant<jweickgenant@realclearworld.com>,"MariaE.Thorbourne"
<mariat@stanford.edu>,JerryMungai<jmungai@pacbell.net>

ThanksPaul.

JustinPetty

SocialMediaandCommunicationsManager

HooverInstitution|StanfordUniversity

From:paulroderickgregory<pgregory@stanford.edu>
Sent:Sunday,August21,20165:57:33PM
To:JustinPetty;JenniferMayfield;BrianBonner;WalterZaryckyj;JohnBatchelor;JoelWeickgenant;MariaE.Thorbourne;JerryMungai;WalterZaryckyj
Subject:PutinOctobersurprisewouldbeHillary'sfault

Ihttp://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/08/21/could-putin-leak-incriminating-hillary-clinton-emails-as-an-october-surprise/#5c8456c74a5a

IfWikiLeaksreleasesincriminatingdocumentsfromHillarysscrubbedprivatecache,thereexistsnolegitimatetruedocumentforcomparison.Hillarycouldnotprovetheleakeddocumentneverexistedorwasaltered,unlessshesquirreledawayinsome
safeplacecopiesofherprivatecache.Ifso,shecouldnotusethemwithoutexposinganunforgivablelie.Hillarysdeletingofthethousandsofself-declaredprivateemailsmayhavegivenahostileforeignpowerthewherewithaltodeterminetheoutcome
ofapresidentialelection.Hillaryhasnoonetoblamebutherself.WillthechickenscomehometoroostinlateOctober?

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at12:50PM
Subject:Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37154043

Russia'showed-off'overuseofIranairbaseforSyriastrikes

ReutersUsingtheIranianairbasereducedthedurationoftheRussianbombers'missions

RussiahasstoppedusinganIranianairbasetobombtargetsinSyria,bothcountrieshavesaid.

IranianforeignministryspokesmanBahramQasemisaidtheoperationwas"overfornow"andtheplaneshadgone.

Iran'sDefenceMinisterHosseinDeghanhadearliercriticisedRussiaforpublicisingtheraidslastweek,sayingithadexhibiteda"show-off"attitude.

RussiaforitsparthasconfirmedthatallofitsplanesusedfromIranforSyriastrikesarenowbackinRussia.

Russia.likeIran,isakeyallyofSyria'sPresidentBasharal-Assad.

IsbloodiedSyrianboyOmranDaqneeshjustanotherimage?
WhyisthereawarinSyria?
WhatisleftofSyria?

LastTuesday,Russia'sdefenceministryannouncedthatTupolev-22M3long-rangebombersandSukhoi-34strikefightershadusedtheShahidNojehairbaseneartheeasterncityofHamedantocarryoutairstrikeson"terrorists"inSyria.

TheraidswerethefirstcarriedbyRussiafromathirdcountrysinceitbegananaircampaignagainstMrAssad'sopponentsalmostayearago,andalsothefirstlaunchedfromIraniansoilbyaforeignmilitarysinceWorldWarTwo.
RussianowsaysthataircraftwhichwerebasedattheHamedanairbasearenolongerlocatedthereandhavereturnedtotheRussianFederation.

DefenceministryspokesmanIgorKonashenkovwasquotedbytheInterfaxnewsagencyassayingthatfutureuseofthebasewillnowonlytakeplace"onthebasisofmutualagreementsbetweenthetwocountriesonthefightagainstterrorismandwilldependon
developmentsinSyria".

ThesecretaryofIran'sSupremeNationalSecurityCouncil,AliShamkhani,previouslylaudedthe"strategic"co-operationwithRussia.ButsomeMPscomplainedthatitbreachedtheIslamicRepublic'sconstitution,whichprohibitsallowingforeignmilitariestobebasedon
itsterritory.

InaninterviewwithstateTVonMonday,GenDeghanstressedthatRussiawouldonlyusetheNojehairbase"foraveryshortandfixedspan,corresponding[toan]operationinSyria".

EPATheTU-22M3shadpreviouslybeenforcedtoflymissionsfromRussia

GenDeghanwasaskedwhyRussiahadchosentorevealitspresencetherewhereasIranhadnot.

"TheRussiansareinterestedtoshowtheyareasuperpowertoguaranteetheirshareinthepoliticalfutureofSyriaand,ofcourse,therehasbeenakindofshow-offandungentlemanly[attitude]inthisfield."

GenDeghanexplainedthatRussiahad"decidedtobringinmoreplanesandboostitsspeedandaccuracyinoperations".

AFPRussia'sdeploymenttoIrancameamidanescalationinfightinginandaroundAleppo

"Therefore,itneededtorefuelinanareaclosertotheoperation.That'swhytheyusedtheNojehbase.Butwehavedefinitelynotgiventhemamilitarybase."

Hourslater,MrQasemiannouncedthatRussia'sdeploymenthadended.

AFPBahramQasemileftopenthepossibilityoffutureRussiancombatflightsfromIran

"Itwasaspecific,authorisedmissionandit'soverfornow.Theyconducteditandtheyaregonenow,"hewasquotedbytheofficialnewsagencyassaying.

TheUS,whichbackstheoppositiontoSyria'spresident,hadsaidRussia'suseoftheIranianbasewas"unfortunatebutnotsurprising".

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Mon,Aug22,2016at2:05PM
Subject:TWOPIECESTOWATCH[ED:RUSSIABEING"SOFT-SOLD"TWOPRIMEEXAMPLES.IE."IFONLYTHEU.S.LEARNEDTOHUGVLADMORE"]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

Russia'sEurasianidentityaspartofitsstrategy

Putinisabletothinkstrategically,usingallhardandsoftpowertoolstopromoteRussianforeignpolicyinterests.

ARussiannavyshiplaunchesacruisemissileintheCaspianSea[AP]
by
LukeCoffey @lukedcoffey

LukeCoffeyisaresearchfellowspecialisingintransatlanticandEurasiansecurityataWashingtonDC
basedthinktank.HepreviouslyservedasaspecialadvisertotheBritishdefencesecretaryandwasa
commissionedofficerintheUnitedStatesarmy.

AsMoscowcontinuesitsaggressivebehaviourtowardsEasternEuropeandexpandsitsaircampaigninsupportofPresidentBasharal-AssadinSyria,itsabilitytouseitsstatusasaEurasianpowertoadvanceitsforeignpolicygoalsinthese
regionshasgonevirtuallyunnoticedbyWesternpolicymakers.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasleveragedRussianinfluenceinone
regiontoadvanceitsinterestsinanother.Threerecentactionsbest
demonstratethis.

CruisemissilesandtheCaspian

RussiadefendsusingIranbaseforSyriaairstrikes
ThefirstdemonstratorofsuchleverageisRussia'suseoftheCaspianSeafor
itsoperationsinSyria.TheCaspianSeasitsonacrucialcrossroadslocatedat
theheartoftheEurasiancontinentandthroughouthistoryhashadan
importantgeopoliticalsignificanceforRussia.
OverthepastseveralmonthsRussianshipsformingpartoftheCaspian
Flotillahavefireddozensofcruisemissileshittingtargets1,500kmawayin
Syria.MoscowchosetheCaspianfortheselauncheseventhoughalternative
sitesmuchclosertoSyriaareavailable.
SowhywouldRussiagothroughtheextratroubleoflaunchingfromthe
Caspian?Inreality,Russia'suseoftheCaspianhadverylittletodowith
SyriaitselfandalottodowithRussia'sroleintheregion.
ThesestrikesprovedtotheothercountriesaroundtheCaspian-asea
whoselegalstatusandownershipofresourcesisdisputed-thatRussiais
thedominantmilitarypower.
AlsoitallowedRussiatotestboththecruisemissilesandthecorvettefrom
whichtheywerefiredinareal-lifecombatsetting.
Russiaknowsthatitiseasiertoexport"combat-tested"equipmentand
Moscowiseagertoexportbothtoboostitsdefenceindustry.

Iranianairbase
SeconddemonstratorwastherecentannouncementthatRussiaisusing
basesinIrantocarryoutairstrikesinSyria.
Fromstrictlyamilitarypointofviewthismakesperfectsense.Inthepast,
RussianbombersmadethejourneytoSyriaallthewayfrombasesinthe
NorthCaucasus.
Theextrafuelneededtomakethelongreturntripmeantthattheplanes
carriedfewerbombs.UsingtheIranianairbaseatHamadanallowsRussian
bomberstobesignificantlyclosertotargetsinSyria.Thismeansmore
sortiesandmorebombsthatcanbedropped.

TotheaverageWesternobserver,Russia'srecentactionsintheCaspian,
IranoritsCSTOmilitaryexerciseareviewedasthreedifferentand
unrelatedthings.ForPutin,Russia'sactionsinthesethreeregionsare
partsofaninterconnectedanddeliberategrandstrategy.

Butmorethanthat,MoscowandTehranaresendingastrongsignalto
WashingtonandtheArabSunniworldabouttheirplaceintheongoing
competitionforpowerandinfluenceintheMiddleEast.
WhiletheRussianuseoftheairbasemaybetemporary,itshouldbe
recognisedaspartofalong-termefforttopromoteaMoscow-Tehran-
DamascusagendaintheMiddleEast.

CentralAsiaonNATO'sdoorstep
Finally,lastweekRussiaheldthefirsteverCollectiveSecurityTreaty
Organisation(CSTO)trainingexercisesalongtheborderofNATO.
TheCSTOisaMoscow-ledcollectivesecurityorganisationthatincludes
Kazakhstan,Armenia,Belarus,Kyrgyzstan,andTajikistan.
ThefactthattheCSTOheldamajormilitaryexerciseisnothingnew.Whatis
noteworthy,however,isthattheexercisetookplaceinRussia'sPskov
oblast,whichbordersNATOmembersEstoniaandLatvia.
OPINION:Russia'semergingnavalpresenceintheMediterranean

ThisisthefirsttimethataCSTOtrainingexercisehastakenplacesocloseto
aNATOborder.Unsurprisinglythistrainingexercisehasraisedeyebrows
acrossEuropeancapitalswhenconsideringsomeofthebellicoserhetoric
comingfromtheKremlintowardstheBalticstates.
ThisCSTOtrainingexerciseindicatesanumberofthingsaboutMoscow's
influenceintheformerSovietUnion.
ItistellingthatRussiawasabletogettroopsfromKazakhstan,Armenia,
Belarus,Kyrgyzstan,andTajikistantoparticipateinwargamessocloseto
NATO'sborder.EspeciallyforacountrylikeKazakhstanwhichitselfhas
concernsaboutMoscowmeddlinginthenorthernpartofthecountrywhere
manyethnicRussianslive.

Strategicthinking
WhatdothesethreerecenteventstellusaboutRussianforeignpolicy?
Putinisabletothinkstrategically,usingallhardandsoftpowertoolsto
promoteRussianforeignpolicyinterests.
TotheaverageWesternobserver,Russia'srecentactionsintheCaspian,
IranoritsCSTOmilitaryexerciseareviewedasthreedifferentandunrelated
things.ForPutin,Russia'sactionsinthesethreeregionsarepartsofan
interconnectedanddeliberategrandstrategy.

NotwithstandingthepossibleviolationofUNSecurityCouncil2231over
Russia'suseofbasesinIran,thereisnothingtosuggestthatanyofthese
threeactionswerewrong.
Indeed,theUnitedStatesandNATOdosimilarthings.TheUSanditsallies
useairbasesintheregiontostriketargetsinSyria.AndNATOholds
exercisesnotfarfromRussia'sborders.Astheysay,imitationisthe
sincerestformofflattery.
ItiswhenyouplaceRussia'srecentactivitiesintoalargercontextofregional
aggression-suchasinUkraine-thatthereiscauseforconcern.
LukeCoffeyisaresearchfellowspecialisingintransatlantic
andEurasiansecurityataWashingtonDC-basedthink-tank.
HepreviouslyservedasaspecialadvisertotheBritishdefence
secretaryandwasacommissionedofficerintheUnitedStates
Army.
Theviewsexpressedinthisarticlearetheauthor'sownanddo
notnecessarilyreflectAlJazeera'seditorialpolicies.

UPI

HOME/TOPNEWS/OPINION

Russia'snoWesterndemocracythatdoesn'tmakeitautomaticadversary
ByHarlanUllman,ArnauddeBorchgraveDistinguishedColumnist|Aug.22,2016at6:00AM

34Comments

Regardingmajorinterests,itwouldseemthatRussiaandtheUnitedStates(andtheWest)havemoreincommonthannot.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisshownhereonavisittoGreeceinMay.PhotobyVerveridisVasilis/Shutterstock

America'sinfatuationwithRussiacanformallybedatedfromMay1867whentheUnitedStatespaid$7.2million--worthabout$1.3billiontoday--forthepurchaseofAlaska.Called"Seward'sFolly"afterSecretaryofStateWilliamSewardwhonegotiatedthedeal,oneofthereasonsforthesalewasRussianexpectation

thatbybuyingAlaska,theUnitedStateswouldbecomeamoredeeplyinvolvedPacificpowerandacounterbalancetoBritain--theTsar'sgreaterworryatthetime.Eventhen,geopoliticswasnotanunknownarttoSt.PetersburgoutsidethetraditionalEuropeansphere.

Thatinfatuationhashadmanytwistsandturns.

Foratimeinthe1930s,theSovietUnionwasanidealizedworker'sparadiseforthoseAmericansseducedbycommunism.TheSpanishCivilWar,theproxyprecursorforWorldWarII,attractedasmallnumberofAmericanstofightontheSovietsideagainstthefascists.AndwithouttheSovietUnionforwhatRussiansstill
call"thegreatpatrioticwar,"defeatingHitlermighthavebeenimpossible.

TheColdWar,however,wasnearlyahalf-centurylongideologicalstruggleinwhichbothsidespromised,capturedinthewordsofJohnKennedy,to"payanypriceandbearanyburden"towin.Butonlyonesidedidwin--theWest.AndinthequarterofacenturysincetheUSSRimploded,relationshaverevertedtowhat
someinMoscowandtheWestarecallinga"newcoldwar."

Why?

Regardingmajorinterests,itwouldseemthatRussiaandtheUnitedStates(andtheWest)havemoreincommonthannot.AvertingconflicttoincludeendofthevirulentdangerofradicalandviolentIslamshouldbeself-evidentasmutuallybeneficial.Yet,thecrisisinSyria,whereeliminatingtheIslamicStateisacommonaim,
theUnitedStatesandRussiaarebitterlydividedoverthecontinuationofPresidentBasharal-Assadandhisregime.

Similarly,EastandWesthavecommoneconomicinterests.RussianeedstosellitsenergytotheWest.TheWestneedstosellitsproductstotheEast.ButbecauseofRussianinterventionintoUkraine,heavysanctionshavebeenimposedonMoscowthatarepainfultoallsides.

PresidentGeorgeW.BushcouldlookdeeplyintoVladimirPutin'seyesandasPrimeMinisterMargaretThatcherobservedofMikhailGorbachevagenerationbefore,believeeachcouldbeapartner.PresidentBarackObamacouldpushthe"resetbutton"withRussia,eventhoughitwasmisspelled,andsignaNewSTART

nuclearweaponsreductionstreaty.Still,tomostobservers,thisnewcoldwarhasfrozenarelationshipatlevelsunseensincebeforetheSovietUnioncollapsed.

ThereasonsarenotpersonalitydriveneventhoughObamaandPutindisplayamutualresentment.WhenChurchillmadehisfamous"enigmaandriddle"analogy,hewentontoaddthatRussiawasdrivenbyinterests.Andtheheartofthestandofftodayistherefusalofbothsidestounderstandtheinterestsoftheother.

WhentheColdWarended,theWesttriednottogloat.Forbetterorworse,RussianscametobelievethattheircountrywasperceivedwithlessrespectandhencewastoooftendisregardedbytheWest.TheexpansionofNATOEasttoinclude,first,threemajorformermembersoftheWarsawPact,Moscow's
counterbalancingalliance,wasnotwell-received.NorwastheaccessionofthethreeBalticandtwoBlackSeastates.

Thenin2008,attheNATOheadsofgovernmentsummitheldinBucharest,Romania,GeorgeW.BushextendedtoGeorgiaandUkrainetheprospectofmembership.Putin,whowaspresentatthesummit,issuedasternwarning,awarningthatwasnotfullyappreciated.Afewmonthslater,RussiatrickedGeorgianPresident
MikhailSakashvilliintosendingforcesintoSouthOssetiathatpromptedabrief,one-sidedresponsethatMoscoweasilywon.

Inearly2014,whenUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovychwasforcedtofleeKiev,RussiaintervenedandannexedCrimea.With"contestedborders"inbothGeorgiaandUkraine,NATOmembershipwasforeclosedbythefoundingWashingtonTreatyof1949thatdeniedanystateaccessunderthosecircumstances.Few
intheWestcomprehendedMoscow'sreasons.

Ofcourse,inaperfectworld,Moscowshouldnothaveusedforceineithercase.Unfortunately,WashingtonneverunderstoodhowmuchofathreatNATOexpansionwasperceivedbyMoscow.Andperhapsitstilldoesn't.

Finally,RussiaisnotandwillneverbeaWesterndemocracy.Thatdoesnotmakeitanautomaticadversary.Andmaybeweareariddleandenigma,too.

HarlanUllmanisUPI'sArnauddeBorchgraveDistinguishedColumnistandservesassenioradviserforSupremeAlliedCommanderEurope,theAtlanticCouncilandBusinessExecutivesforNationalSecurityandchairstwoprivatecompanies.Hislastbookis"AHandfulofBullets:HowtheMurderof

ArchdukeFranzFerdinandStillMenacesthePeace."Hisnextbook,dueoutnextyear,is"AnatomyofFailure:WhyAmericaLosesWarsItStarts."

From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201612:47:29PM
To: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

Ontheinternets.......

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at3:14PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

"itwasonawebsite"

<image.jpg>

OnAugust5,2016at3:05:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

Ha!Tweetthequestion:wherewastheleakpublished?

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at2:56PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

ThatIcan'tfindanythingwhenIsearchformakesmewonderifhe'stwistingor
misremembering,tobehonest.

OnAugust5,2016at2:47:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

ThanksKevin.Buthedoesn'tsaywheretheleakwaspublished.

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at2:04PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

IassumehestalkingaboutEdVerona,butIdontrecallanythingaboutthisinthenews.

http://twitter.com/McFaul/status/761622551852220416

<ScreenShot2016-08-05at2.04.00PM.png>

OnAugust1,2016at3:30:44AM,RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/ho
w-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthe
PutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutin
Playbook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
Tweet
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More
Save
138

Photo

ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.
Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
From: MargaretH<m.hh1@hotmail.com>
Senttime: 08/07/201608:20:59AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary|NewYorkPost

And,inhisbook,hesaidsomethingaboutCurveBall'sinfohavingbeenusedbecauseitwasgood.....hmmmm

SentfrommyVerizon,SamsungGalaxysmartphone

--------Originalmessage--------
From:Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Date:8/6/1610:09(GMT-05:00)
To:MargaretH<m.hh1@hotmail.com>
Subject:Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary|NewYorkPost

http://nypost.com/2016/08/05/that-spooks-for-hillary-endorsement-came-from-the-guy-who-took-al-qaeda-out-of-the-benghazi-
talking-points/

Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary
Ex-CIAspookwhowhitewashedBenghaziendorsesHillary

Hillaryhasbecomeaspookscandidate.FormerdeputyCIADirectorMichaelMorell,whosoconvenientlycoveredhertracksin
Benghazi,hasnowconfirmedit.

InaglowingendorsementhisfriendsatTheNewYorkTimesprominentlyfeaturedFriday,Morellgavehisfull-throatedsupportto
Clinton,whileinsistingthathewasnopartisanandhadevenvotedRepublicaninthepast.

Likeanobedientpartyhackvyingforanewjob,MorellspoutedthepartylinethatDonaldTrumpwasnotonlyunqualifiedforthejob,
buthemaywellposeathreattoournationalsecurity.

ModalTrigger MichaelMorellPhoto:Getty

Thosearestrongwords,especiallycomingfromsomeonewhoweareledtobelieveisanunimpeachablesource.Butishe?

Thenon-partisanMorellwascaughtmis-speakingtoCongressabouthisroleinsanitizingtheinfamousCIAtalkingpointsprepared
forUSAmbassadorSusanRicetodeliverontheSundaytalkshowsaftertheBenghaziattacks.Andwhenhewascaughtout,likea
faithfulsoldier,hefellonhissword.

Hereshowithappened:AfterSusanRicesoutlandishclaimsontheSundaytalkshowsthattheBenghaziattacksbeganasaspontaneous
protestoverahatefulYouTubevideo,Congressbeganaskingwhereshehadgottenthatinformation.Thisishowlawmakersdiscovered
thattheintelligencecommunityhaddraftedhertalkingpoints,withinputfromtheWhiteHouseandHillaryClintonsstaff.

EarlydraftsofthetalkingpointsincludedamentionofalQaeda.Butthatreferencewasremovedinthefinaldrafts.Sen.LindsayGraham
explainedtomewhathappenednext.
OnNov.27,2012,MorellandSusanRicecameintomyoffice,hetoldme.IaskedMorellwhochanged[thetalkingpoints].Hesaid,
theFBIdeletedthereferencetoalQaedabecauseofanongoingcriminalinvestigation.SoIcalledtheFBI.Theysaid,no,theydidnt
changethetalkingpoints.Theywerefurious.

Apparently,thatwasanunderstatement:SomeoneataseniorlevelatFBIcalledtheCIAtoprotestdirectly.Grahamcontinuedthestory:
At4p.m.thatday,CIAcalledmeandsaidMorellmis-spokeinhismeetingwithme,andthatCIAdeleted[thereferencetoalQaeda],
buttheycouldntgiveareasonwhy.

Grahamthoughtthereasonwasobvious:IfthetruthhadbeenknownthatalQaedakilledfourAmericanssevenweeksbeforean
election,itwouldhavebeenadifferentpoliticalstory.

RememberwhatObamaandhissurrogatesweresaying?Osamaisdead,GMisalive.Thatwastheircampaignmantra.

Infact,itwasMorellhimselfwhomadethosechanges.

MorellsubsequentlytestifiedbeforetheHouseSelectCommitteeonIntelligence,andeventuallybeforetheBenghaziSelectCommittee,
twistinghimselfintoapretzeltoexplainwhyheremovedanymentionofthealQaedainvolvementintheattacks.

HeultimatelyclaimedhebelievednewsreportscallingtheBenghaziattacksaprotestgonewildweremorecrediblethanrepeatede-mails
andcablesfromhisownstationchiefinLibyainsistingtherehadneverbeenaprotest.

Itwasanadmissionofgrossincompetenceorpartisanship.ButthatwasthepartylineClintonwasputtingout.

Morellwasrewardedafterthe2012election.WhenheretiredfromCIA,MorelltookapositionwithBeaconGlobalStrategies,acompany
cofoundedbyAndrewShapiroandPhilippeReines,membersofHillaryClintonsinnercircleattheStateDepartment.

InhisTimesop-ed,MorellclaimsDonaldTrumpisanunwittingagentofRussiabecausehemakesfriendlyremarkstowardPutin.But
TrumphasnevertakenadimefromPutin.Aswenowknow,Clintonandherhusbandhavebothprofitedhandsomelyfromtheirrelations
toRussianstate-ownedbanksandcorporationsandactuallyhelpedRussiagetitshandsonacompanywithrightstoafifthofUS
uranium.DoesthatmakeherawittingagentofRussia?

Thisformerspookswillingnesstoskewerthetruthonbehalfofapoliticalpatronshouldsufficetomakeanythinkingpersonrejecthis
judgment.

AsforthetruthaboutHillary,well,weveseenhersellingpoliticalfavorstoforeigncountriesandcompanieswhilesecretaryofstate
throughtheClintonFoundation.AndlyingtothepublicincessantlyaboutBenghazi,here-mails,younameit.Justimaginewhatshell
doifelectedpresident.

KennethR.Timmermanslatestbook,Deception:theMakingoftheYouTubeVideoHillaryandObamaBlamedforBenghazi,was
releasedtwoweeksagoandisalreadyinits4thprinting.

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/20/201601:52:06PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[MK/2X][PB][CHER/M][RC][HU]"DEZINFORM,DEZINFORMEVERYWHERE,NE'RAFACTTOBEFOUND"[WithHumblest
Subject:
ApologiestoColeridge&'TheRimeoftheAncyentMarinere']

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,August20,20161:22PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[MK/2X][PB][CHER/M][RC][HU]"DEZINFORM,DEZINFORMEVERYWHERE,NE'RAFACTTOBEFOUND"[WithHumblest
ApologiestoColeridge&'TheRimeoftheAncyentMarinere']

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Aug20,2016at1:42PM
Subject:JournalisticEthicsandNorms:HowlegitimateisTheCentreforGlobalResearch?-Quora
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

[1]********CentreforGlobalResearch*******appearstobeaKremlinpropagandaoutletasasourceofinformation[it]is
veryquestionable.

http://www.quora.com/Journalistic-Ethics-and-Norms-How-legitimate-is-The-Centre-for-Global-Research

JournalisticEthicsandNorms:HowlegitimateisTheCentreforGlobal
Research?
AlsoknownasTheCentreforResearchonGlobalizationandMondialisation.ca

JacquelineWong

5.6kViews

Itisbynomeansanobjectivelyreliablemediasource.Thearticles,videos,andothermediaitputsforthare
highlyskewedandoftenfactuallyinaccurate.

Somepeoplehavebeenquotingitasalegitimatesource,butithasverystrongtiestoanorganizationknownfor
churningoutblatantpropaganda.
TheCentreforResearchonGlobalization,alsoknownastheCentreforGlobalResearchandMondialisation.caisa
fascist/Kremlin-fundedpropagandaoutletthatdefamesandslanderstheirtargetedgroupssuchasJews,Ukrainians,
theUnitedStates,andotherwesterncountries.

ItspeersincludetheTransnationalFoundationforPeaceandFutureResearch,theBritishHelsinkiHumanRights
Group,theRonPaulInstituteforPeaceandProsperity,andtheInstituteforDemocracyandCooperationand
theNashiYouth.

Source:Propagramm

In2014,theCentreforResearchonGlobalizationaidedtheKremlinincarryingoutadefamationcampaignagainst
Ukraine,theUS,theEUandNATO.

[2]AsforNikolasKozloff-hislastparagraphisallthatneedstoberead.He'sparrotingKremlinpropaganda,throughand
throughdespiteallofthe'objectivity'heshowsinitially.

ThestatisticsofrightwingcandidateswhoareinthegovtofUkrainearenegligibleincomparisonwithalltherightwingextremists
throughoutEurope,Russia,Turkey,*****andtheUS.

AnotherKremlinmouthpiece-can'twaittoseehisupcomingbooklet'Ukraine'sRevolutionaryGhosts.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Aug20,2016at2:37PM
Subject:TwitterSuspendsAnother235,000AccountsPromotingTerrorism-DefenseOne
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
TwitterSuspendsAnother235,000AccountsPromotingTerrorism-DefenseOne

NowifonlyTwitterwoulddothesameforRussiantrollstherewouldindeedbeasenseofrestoredtruthfulnessinsocialmedia
world.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Date:Sat,Aug20,2016at1:44PM
Subject:UkraineAmbassador:RussiaTryingto'Blackmail'Europe[ED:UA-USAmbChalyNotestheHellacious
'Dezinform'RUisPumpingintotheEuroPress]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

"Trying"?They'redoingit!And,aslongasthe"Western"presscontinuestorunRussiandezinformsidebysidewithfacts,they
willbesuccessful.The"Western"presshastoanswerthekeyquestion--Howmanymurderersadmittheircrimestothepress?
WhyshouldPutinbeanydifferent?

http://www.defensenews.com/articles/ukraine-ambassador-russia-trying-to-blackmail-europe?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=News%20Roundup%200819&utm_term=Editorial%20-
%20Daily%20News%20Roundup

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BardUkrainka<seanachie_holodonika@icloud.com>
Date:Sat,Aug20,2016at1:41PM
Subject:Re:[LAZYMIDAUGSATAFTERNOON][ITEMS&MATTERS"OUTOFWHACK"]THREESTORIESBY
THREE'RUABROAD-CHIKS'Youcantake"thesaidgang"outoftheEMPIRE,butyoucan'ttaketheEMPIREoutofthe
"saidgang"!!![OY!!HOWSAD!!!][ED:Onthereturnof'Stalinisttactics'..andonthelossofperspectiveinthe
West..]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

ThetacticofsayingthearrestedpersonwillonlybedetainedforafewminutesisoneoftheblatantliesoftheStalinistdays.Is
intendedtofalselyallevetheemotionsofobserversandfamilymembersuntilthevictimistakenaway,afterwhichit'stoolateto
kickupafuss.

IrttheSavchenkocase,theBBChadanarticleabouttheappallinglylowpercentageofpeoplearrestedinRussiathateverseethe
lightofdaywithoutasentencebeingimposed.Itsaidthatpeoplehabituallypackyourbagforprisonwhentheyhavetogoto
court.There'snosuchthingas"innocent,"apparently,and,asalwaysthere,"someanimalsaremoreequalthanothers,"whether
theychangetheiracronymsontheirstationeryornot.

Myconcerninmentioningthisisrelatedtothedumbingdownofthereadingcurriculuminthepublicschoolsystems.Whatever
empathy/sympathy/knowledgeoftheworld/Itspeoples/it'scultures/selfprotectiveknowledgegainedfromreadingsuchbooksas
_AnimalFarm_,_1984_,_OntheBeach_,_Fail-Safe,theworksofDickens,etc.,thatmostofusgrewupreadingand
internalizedatasufficientlyearlyage,oftenarenotinthecurriculumanymore.****************

*********************************

SlavaUkraini,

Cher

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Moyehoist@aol.com<moyehoist@aol.com>
Date:Sat,Aug20,2016at12:49PM
Subject:Re:[LAZYMIDAUGSATAFTERNOON][ITEMS&MATTERS"OUTOFWHACK"]THREESTORIESBY
THREE'RUABROAD-CHIKS'Youcantake"thesaidgang"outoftheEMPIRE,butyoucan'ttaketheEMPIREoutof
the"saidgang"!!![OY!!HOWSAD!!!][ED:RCreactingtotheKozloffpiece..]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

******************WeneedtokeepthepressureontheRepublicans.Bythesametokenwhoisworkingtokeeppressure
ontheDems.**********Hillary'splatformishorrible.ThereisonepassagethatmentionsUkrainebutitgoesontopromise
that"...wewillcooperatewithPutin...."PlustheRepublicancontrolledHouseandSenatehasapprovedarmsforUkrainefor
yearsbutitisbeingheldupbyObama.Theseneedtobereleasednow.

ItmightbetoolateinFebforthenextPresident.ThepartythatgaveusFDRandtheResetalsoneedstodobetter.

Rc

ADDITIONALNOTE:

Powellhas'norecollection'ofClintonemaildinnerconversation
ByNickGass
08/19/1611:54AMEDT
Updated08/19/1612:25PMEDT

Readmore:http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/colin-powell-clinton-email-book-227200#ixzz4HstRFjMp
Followus:@politicoonTwitter|PoliticoonFacebook

Shareon
FacebookShare
onTwitter

FormerSecretaryofStateColinPowell"hasnorecollectionofthedinnerconversation"recountedby
HillaryClintontoFBIagents,asdocumentedbyjournalistJoeConasoninaforthcomingbook.

Conason'sanecdote,reportedThursdaynightbyTheNewYorkTimes,recountsasmalldinnerpartyat
Clinton'sGeorgetownhometowardthebeginningofhertimeassecretaryofstate,withformer
secretariesMadeleineAlbright,HenryKissingerandCondoleezzaRicealsoinattendance.Duringthat
dinner,Conasonreports,AlbrightaskedtheformersecretariestoimpartadvicetoClinton.

Powelltoldhertouseherownemail,ashehaddone,exceptforclassifiedcommunications,whichhehadsent
andreceivedviaaStateDepartmentcomputer,"Conasonwroteinhisbook"ManoftheWorld:TheFurther
EndeavorsofBillClinton,ofwhichtheTimessaiditacquiredanadvancecopy.Powell,accordingtoConason's
account,toldClintonthat"hisuseofpersonalemailhadbeentransformativeforthedepartment"andthus
confirmedadecision[Clinton]hadmademonthsearliertokeepherpersonalaccountanduseitformost
messages.

AspokeswomanforPowell'sofficeissuedastatementfollowingtheTimes'story:"GeneralPowellhas
norecollectionofthedinnerconversation.HedidwriteformerSecretaryClintonanemailmemodescribing
hisuseofhispersonalAOLemailaccountforunclassifiedmessagesandhowitvastlyimprovedcommunications
withintheStateDepartment."

"AtthetimetherewasnoequivalentsystemwithintheDepartment.HeusedasecureStatecomputeronhisdesk
tomanageclassifiedinformation,"thestatementcontinued."TheGeneralnolongerhastheemailhesentto
formerSecretaryClinton.ItmayexistinStateorFBIfiles."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Sat,Aug20,2016at2:23PM
Subject:WAZ,toyourpoint:GlobalResearchReprintsSputnikHitPieceonHillaryUsingDonaldasaShill
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

http://www.globalresearch.ca/could-trump-pull-off-a-post-party-coalition/5541658

SPUTNIK:CouldTrumpPullOffaPost-PartyCoalition?
BySputnik

GlobalResearch,August19,2016

Sputnik17August2016

Region:USA

In-depthReport:U.S.Elections

40

HillaryClinton,QueenofChaos,QueenofWar,Golden
GoldmanGirl,forallpracticalpurposesisbynowthe
officialbipartisancandidateofUSneoconsand
neoliberalconsalike.
Certifiedadd-onsincludeWallStreetselectedhedgefunds
TPPcheerleaders CFR(CouncilonForeignRelations)
interventionistsmediabaronsmultinationalcorporate
hustlersinfactvirtuallythewholeexceptionalistUS
establishment,dulyunderwrittenbythebipartisan,mega-
wealthy0.0001%.

ThatdoesleaveDonaldJ.Trumpintheastonishingposition
ofegomaniacbillionaireoutsiderwhosomehowdreamshe
cangamethewholesystemonhisown,movedbyhis
inexhaustiblechutzpah.

ItsunderthisdynamicthatTrumphasbeendemonizedwithmedievalfervorbyUScorporatemedia.Hisnon-stopmotormouth
andmotortweetcertainlydoesnothelp,conveyingtheimpressionhesinthebusinessofantagonizingmultitudesnon-stop.For
theestablishment,hisbillionsmeannothinghestreatedlikeabum.Hemaybeimpervioustoempathyontheotherhandthatkind
oftreatmentkeepsearninghimwidespreadsympathyamongtheangry,semi-destitute,non-collegeeducatedwhitemasses.
AUSindustrialrenaissance?

Underneathallthissoundandfury,somethingelseis(quietly)goingon.PowerfulbusinessinterestsdiscreetlysupportingTrump
andawayfromthemediacircusareconvincedhesgottheroadmaptovictory.Thequestioniswhetherhemaybeable
totamehiserraticbehaviortosealthedeal.

Hiskeymessage,accordingtothesebackers,mustrevolvearoundthedestructionofUSindustriesbyriggedcurrencies,andthe
destructionofthewagesofAmericanworkersbyimportingillegalcheaplaborfromdollar-a-daywagenations.

Andthatcomeswithanall-importantmilitaryangleasasurefiresellingpoint.AsTrumpsbackersoutlineit,thePacificOcean
cannotbeusedfortransportingthevitalandessentialcomponentsofourmilitaryindustrialcomplex,forintheeventofwar
withRussiaorChinatheiradvancedsilentsubmarinesequippedwithadvancedanti-shipweaponswillblockallofourocean
transport,collapsingourmilitaryindustrialproductioninanywarwithcatastrophicconsequences.Thesecomponentfactories
forIntelandothersmustberepatriatedatoncethroughcurrencyadjustmentsortariffs.SoTrumpshouldhammerthemessage
thatallnewbankcreditmustbetiedtorebuildingdestroyedUSindustries,eitherbyendingcurrencyriggingorapplyingtariffs.
Bankcredit,Trumpbackersargue,shouldnotbeusedforcurrencymanipulation,orforcashsettlementmarketrigging.There
shouldbenobankcreditforspeculationandabsolutelynoneforhedgefunds.Letswipethesespeculativevehiclesoutbyhuge
taxesonshort-termtradingprofits,endingtaxconcessionsonborrowing,andendingallbankcreditforspeculation.Letthese
peoplegotodorealwork.

That,inanutshell,explainsWallStreetsvisceralaversiontoTrumpfromtheBloombergstotheLloydBlankfeins.Anyone
familiarwithWallStreetknowseverymarket,commodityandindexesareriggedbycashsettlementmanipulations.AsaNew
York-basedTrumpbackerputsit,ThisaloneissufficientreasontosupportDonaldJ.Trump.WeshouldmaketheCarlIcahans
andGeorgeSorosesdorealworkbytaxingawaytheirspeculativeprofits.WeneedHenryFordsinthisnationwhocreateand
buildindustries,andnotWallStreetlooters,wheretheyrigeverythingasin2008thenusedtheirpoliticalpoweroverbought
politiciansforbailouts,afterthrowingtensofmillionsofAmericanoutoftheirhomes.Accordingtothisroadmap,whichis
alreadyonTrumpsdeskbutnooneknowswhetherhereaditinfull,orwillimplementitfightingillegalimmigrationandrigged
currenciessidebysidewouldcreatenothinglessthananindustrialrenaissanceintheUStorebuildthedevastatedDetroits.
Essentially,theroadmapcallsforreplacingmillionsofillegalimmigrantswithmillionsofunemployedUScitizensTrumpsbackers
considertherealunemploymentratetobeawhopping23%today,basedonthe1955BureauofLaborStatisticalMethodology,
andnottheriggedstatisticsoftoday.

ThebottomlineisthisroadmapcallsforTrump,ifelected,tocreateacross-party,ortrans-partycoalitionasoncehappened
intheHouseandSenatewhenJesseHelmsononesideandJohnConyersandChuckSchumerontheothersideactuallydidreal
business.

ThisallimpliesTrumpshouldbecomewellversedinthenationaleconomyideasofFriedrichListwhosetariff-protected
ZollvereinLeaguewasessentiallythefoundingmethodofPrussiatobuildtheGermannation.
SomeoftheabovehasalreadyfilteredoutinTrumpsannouncedeconomicagenda.Nowcomesthehardpartforamanwithan
exceedinglyshortattentionspanwhogetsintothegroovebytweetsandsoundbitestocoherentlyselltheplanwithoutpicking
upunnecessaryfightsalongtheway.
ButVladhasalreadywonitanyway

PollsatthemomentseemtobepointingtoaHillarylandslide.Trumpsbackerstoughwouldnotrelyonthepolls.Everythingis
rigged.Andthentherestheall-envelopingRussianaggressionhysteria.HillarywentasfarasequatingPresidentPutin
toHitler.TrumpinsistshesreadytodobusinesswithMoscowstartingwithajointoperationtoendISIS/ISIL/Daeshforgood.

Whybother?TheStupidity-o-MeterasappliedtoUSmainstreammediahasgoneoninterstellaroverdriveanywayasthe
presidentialelectionwinnerhasalreadybeenchristened:itswhoelse?theomniscientVladimirPutin.

AbusinesssourcefamiliarwiththedesignsoftherealMastersoftheUniversecutsseriouslytothechase:AsfarasRussiais
concerned,theissueisdecidedfromabove,andthatiswherethebattlehasbeen.ThedecisionisaboveHillaryandDonald,and
Hillarywillbeorderedtocreatearapprochementifsheiselected,ifthatiswhatisdecided.IfTrumpwins,itiseasyandifhe
doesnt,thenthefacthebroughtitupwillbeusedasacatalystforpolicychangestowardRussia.Thefightisbehindthescenes
now.

Asmuchascurrencyriggingwillbeended,aswealreadysawJackLewgiveouttheorderstoGermanyandJapan,anew
geoeconomicmappossiblyunderTrumpwouldswingtowardstheendoftheoilpricewaraswell.AsaTrumpbackerputs
it,thisisanationalobjectiveoftheUnitedStates,asahigherpricewillmaketheUnitedStatesenergyindependent.Thisispart
ofthesignificanceoftheTrumprevolution.AccordingtoasourceclosetotheHouseofSaud,SaudisandRussiansarealready
involvedintortuouspre-negotiationsonthepossibilityofengineeringanoilpricearound$100.00abarrelThereshouldbeenough
mutualityofinterestbetweentheSaudisbetrayedbytheUSundertheneocons,andtobedestroyedbytheneoconseventually,
andtheRussianswhocanpreventthat.

AnendtotheoilpricewarmaybesomethingthePentagonwontbeabletoargueabout.AsaTrumpbackernotes,itisinthe
vitalinterestofthemilitary-industrialcomplextoachievecompleteenergyindependence,andrepatriateallitsmilitaryindustries
totheshoresoftheUnitedStates.

Comparedtothecurrent,24/7mud-wrestlingmatch,allthismayseemstraightfromAliceinWonderland.Theresnoevidence
suchanambitiousandcontentiousagendacanbesoldtomoversandshakersfromJPMorgantotheKochbrothers.Trump
creatingacross-party,trans-partyorevenpost-partymovementwillonlysucceedifsubstantialplayersinthePowerEliteare
behindit,andtherearenosignsofthishappening.

WhatproceedsrelentlesslyisamassivedisinformationcampaignaghastlyremixofthosegoodolColdWaranti-USSR
avalanches.TheClintonMediaMachineisevenvilifyingMichaelFlynn,formerheadoftheDIA,whosupportsTrump.Trump
wasconceptuallyrightwhenhesaidObamaandHillarywerethefounderandco-founderofISIS/ISIL/Daesh.Thatsexactly
whatFlynnadmittedinthat notoriousinterviewwhenhestressedthattheexpansionofthephonyCaliphatewasawillful
decisiontakeninWashington.

Thebottomline,asitstands,isthatTrumpisnotraisingenoughcashtooffsettheformidableClintoncashmachine.Nowcomes
thetimewhenhemustreallytakenoprisonerstogainmaximumexposurewhiletryingtoselltheroadmapoutlinedabove,one
tweetatatime.

AndofcoursetherewillbeasurpriseOctoberandotherwise.Nothinghasbeendecidedyet.DisraelisConingsbywasnever
moreappropriateSoyousee,mydearConingsby,thattheworldisgovernedbyverydifferentpersonagesfromwhatisimagined
bythosewhoarenotbehindthescenes.

TheoriginalsourceofthisarticleisSputnik

CopyrightSputnik,Sputnik,2016

From: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201612:14:37PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

"itwasonawebsite"

OnAugust5,2016at3:05:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

Ha!Tweetthequestion:wherewastheleakpublished?

SentfrommyiPad
OnAug5,2016,at2:56PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

ThatIcan'tfindanythingwhenIsearchformakesmewonderifhe'stwistingormisremembering,tobehonest.

OnAugust5,2016at2:47:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

ThanksKevin.Buthedoesn'tsaywheretheleakwaspublished.

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at2:04PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

IassumehestalkingaboutEdVerona,butIdontrecallanythingaboutthisinthenews.

http://twitter.com/McFaul/status/761622551852220416

<ScreenShot2016-08-05at2.04.00PM.png>

OnAugust1,2016at3:30:44AM,RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-
putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutin
Playbook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
Tweet
Email
More
Save
138

Photo
ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
From: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201612:14:37PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

"itwasonawebsite"

OnAugust5,2016at3:05:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

Ha!Tweetthequestion:wherewastheleakpublished?

SentfrommyiPad
OnAug5,2016,at2:56PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

ThatIcan'tfindanythingwhenIsearchformakesmewonderifhe'stwistingormisremembering,tobehonest.

OnAugust5,2016at2:47:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

ThanksKevin.Buthedoesn'tsaywheretheleakwaspublished.

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at2:04PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

IassumehestalkingaboutEdVerona,butIdontrecallanythingaboutthisinthenews.

http://twitter.com/McFaul/status/761622551852220416

<ScreenShot2016-08-05at2.04.00PM.png>

OnAugust1,2016at3:30:44AM,RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-
putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutin
Playbook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
Tweet
Email
More
Save
138

Photo
ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
From: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201611:56:47AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

ThatIcan'tfindanythingwhenIsearchformakesmewonderifhe'stwistingormisremembering,tobehonest.

OnAugust5,2016at2:47:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

ThanksKevin.Buthedoesn'tsaywheretheleakwaspublished.

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at2:04PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

IassumehestalkingaboutEdVerona,butIdontrecallanythingaboutthisinthenews.

http://twitter.com/McFaul/status/761622551852220416

<ScreenShot2016-08-05at2.04.00PM.png>

OnAugust1,2016at3:30:44AM,RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-
putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutin
Playbook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
Tweet
Email
More
Save
138

Photo
ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.
Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
From: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201611:56:47AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

ThatIcan'tfindanythingwhenIsearchformakesmewonderifhe'stwistingormisremembering,tobehonest.

OnAugust5,2016at2:47:31PM,Bob(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

ThanksKevin.Buthedoesn'tsaywheretheleakwaspublished.

SentfrommyiPad

OnAug5,2016,at2:04PM,KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>wrote:

IassumehestalkingaboutEdVerona,butIdontrecallanythingaboutthisinthenews.

http://twitter.com/McFaul/status/761622551852220416

<ScreenShot2016-08-05at2.04.00PM.png>

OnAugust1,2016at3:30:44AM,RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-
putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutin
Playbook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
Tweet
Email
More
Save
138

Photo
ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.
Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
From: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201611:04:48AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

IassumehestalkingaboutEdVerona,butIdontrecallanythingaboutthisinthenews.

http://twitter.com/McFaul/status/761622551852220416

OnAugust1,2016at3:30:44AM,RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
Tweet
Email
More
Save
138

Photo

ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.
Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
From: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/05/201611:04:48AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

IassumehestalkingaboutEdVerona,butIdontrecallanythingaboutthisinthenews.

http://twitter.com/McFaul/status/761622551852220416

OnAugust1,2016at3:30:44AM,RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)wrote:

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
Tweet
Email
More
Save
138

Photo

ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.
Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/02/201610:12:45PM
To: kramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Re:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

Befair:

http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/07/20/russia-different-kind-of-threat/idml

OnAug2,2016,at4:14PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

Genewrotethis?Wow,quiteachange,especiallyRecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussia
presentsisthefirststeptowarddealingwithit.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,August02,20163:11PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-08-02/kremlins-advantage

TheKremlin'sAdvantage
ThehackoftheU.S.DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,nowwidelyattributed
toRussianintelligence,hassetoffapoliticalearthquakeintheUnitedStates.The
brazennessoftheattack,thecrudeattempttointerveneinaU.S.presidentialelection,
andtheequallybald-faceddenialinthefaceofmountingevidenceofRussian
governmentcomplicityhavepromptedahostofquestionsthatreallyamounttojust
one:How?Althoughafullysatisfactoryanswermayneverbefound,itisnottooearly
todrawsomeconclusionsfromtheepisodeconclusionsthatshouldinformthe
generaldiscourseaboutRussia,aswellasaboutthechallengethatRussiawillpresent
tothenextU.S.administration,regardlessofwhoiselectedinNovember.
Thoseexperts(includingthiswriter),who,outofanabundanceofcaution,initially
grappledwiththenewsoftheDNCbreak-inbyinvokingtheinherentdifficultyof
investigatingcybercrimes,nowhavethegrowingbodyoffactandanalysispointingto
Russiasroleinthehack.InkeepingwithNationalIntelligenceDirectorJames
Clappersrecentremarksonthissubject,theassumptionshouldbethatRussiawas
behindthebreak-in.Atthispoint,todenyitwouldsimplybemisleadingthepublic.
WhydidtheRussiangovernmentdoit?Becauseitcould.Knowledgeispower.
Havingtheinsidescooponanadversaryisasourceofleveragethatistoogoodto
passup.AndcollectingsuchintelligenceiswhattheRussianintelligenceserviceshave
alongrecordofdoingwithsomeskillandsuccess.
AndwhydidthehackersreleasethedatastolenfromtheDNC?Didtheyreallyintend
toundermineDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClintonandtohelptheir
presumedfavorite,theRepublicanDonaldTrump?Itwouldseemnaveordelusional
toexpectthattheleakwouldaffectthevoteinacountryofwellover300millionina
campaignwithsomanyresourcesbeingexpendedbysomanyinterests.Anyanalysis
oftheRussiangovernmentsintentionsrequiresagreatdealofspeculation.Butsome
thingsareknown.
Russiangovernmentandstate-sponsoredagentshaveintervenedinothercountries
electionsanddomesticpolitics.TheyhavedonesoinFrance,theNetherlands,
Germany,andItaly,justtonamesomeU.S.allies.ForRussiasneighborsUkraine,
theBalticstates,andMoldovaMoscowsheavyhandintheirdomesticpoliticsisa
constantworry.JustbecausetheUnitedStatesisbigandpowerfuldoesntmeanthat
itsdomesticpoliticsisnecessarilyofflimitstoRussianintelligence.Infact,theUnited
Statespositionintheworldastheonlytrulyglobalpowermakesitevenmoreofa
targetforRussianintelligence.
Kremlinoperativesprobablyrememberthatthe2000U.S.presidentialelectionwas
determinedbyafewhangingchads.The2016electionmaywellbedecidedbya
smallnumberofdisgruntledsupportersofformerDemocraticcontenderBernie
Sanders,asthesesupportersmaymakethedecisiontostayhome,insteadofvoting
forClinton.Inthatsense,thereleaseofstolenDNCdocumentsmaybejustthething
totipthescalesagainsther.
ThiswarrantsahardlookatwhetherTrumpisRussianPresidentVladimirPutins
favoredchoice.Therecordisremarkable:thepublicexchangeofpleasantriesbetween
TrumpandPutintheRussianmoneyreportedlyinvestedinTrumpsprojectshis
skeptical,transactionalapproachtoNATOhishintingatpossiblerecognitionof
CrimeaasRussianterritoryandliftingofthesanctionsonRussiaandhismostrecent
claimthatPutinisnotgoingtogointoUkraine.Atthesametime,Putinisonthe
recordaccusingClintonoffomentingunrestinRussia.AndClintonsdislikeofthe
RussianpresidentbeforetheDNChackwasequallywelldocumentedand
undoubtedlyhasgrownmoreintensesincethen.
Noneofthisshouldcomeasasurprise,justasnobodywassurprisedwhentheNorth
KoreangovernmenthackedintoSonyPicturescomputers.Theonlyshocktherewas
thetechnicalexpertisedemonstratedbytheparanoidhermitkingdom.AndRussian
rulersarejustasparanoidabouttheWesttheUnitedStates,inparticularandits
attemptstoencircleRussia,destabilizeitathome,andmarginalizeitontheworld
stage.
MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutRussianhybridwarfareatermthatcoversawide
rangeofactivities,includingcovertoperations,theuseofirregularsandcriminal
elements,cyberoperations,informationanddisinformationcampaigns,andsoon.
RussiahaspracticedhybridwarfarewithvaryingdegreesofsuccessinCrimea,in
easternUkraine,intheBalticstates,andinSyria.
LessnotedisthatRussiansecurityservicesseeRussiaasbeingevenmoreavictimof
hybridwarfarethananaggressor.U.S.supportfordemocracyinandaroundRussiais
athreattotheKremlin.ThereleaseofthePanamaPapers,whichrevealed
informationaboutthehiddenwealthandpresumedcorruptactivitiesoftherulingelite,
hasbeenportrayedbytheKremlinasaneffortinWashingtontodiscredititand
destabilizeRussia.Bythesametoken,theOlympicdopingscandalisalsoseenasa
WesternplotagainstRussia.U.S.-EUeconomicsanctionsagainstRussiathatwereput
inplaceinthewakeofRussiasinvasionofUkrainearedescribedasacoverforthe
realgoaltoweakenandpromoteregimechangeinRussia.
IntheeyesofRussianelites,Westernaggressionmustbemetwitharesponse.
HackingintoDNCcomputersandreleasinginformationontheDemocratsfundraising
practicesissimplypaybackforWesternmediareportsaboutelitecorruptioninRussia.
IthelpsboosttheRussiannarrativethatmoneyandpoliticsgohandinhand
everywhereandthatRussiaisnodifferentfromtheUnitedStatesorotherWestern
countrieswhosegovernmentsarecriticalofRussia.
Gettingcaughtred-handedlikelywontevenhurtPutinsstandingathome.The
Russianpublicislongusedtothewarofkompromatsdishingdirtonpolitical
opponentsorbusinesscompetitorswhichhasbecomeastapleofpost-Soviet
Russianpoliticsandbusiness.RussianbusinesstycoonsandtheKremlinpioneered
andfine-tunedthisformofcombatinthe1990susingmediaoutletstheyownedor
controlled.CriticismfromtheWestdoesntmeanmuchinRussiathesedaysPutins
popularapprovalratingshotuptonear90percentafterheannexedCrimea.
Andsothisisbusinessasusual.Russiaisoutgunneditsdefensespendingisa
fractionofthatoftheUnitedStates.TheRussianeconomy,too,isfarsmallerthanthe
UnitedStates.TheKremlinwillnottrytomatchtheUnitedStatesgunforgunand
tankfortank.Butitwillexploitwhatadvantagesithas.
Itwillusemilitaryforcecarefullywherethecorrelationofforcesfavorsitorwhere
itsmilitaryplannerscanassuretheirleadersthatmilitaryactionwillnotleadto
disaster.UkraineisthecaseinwhichtheKremlinhadacompellinginterest,clear
militarysuperiority,andanequallyclearassurancethattheUnitedStateswouldnot
intervene.
SyriawasanothercasewhereRussianmilitaryactionwasnecessarytoprotect
Russianinterestsandwasassociatedwithfewrisks.Itwasneededtosupportthe
falteringBasharal-AssadregimeandentailedrelativelysmallrisksbecausetheObama
administrationhadmadeclearitsreluctancetointervenemilitarilyinSyria.
Butwheretheuseofmilitaryforcecarrieswithitsignificantrisksthatarenotjustified
bycompellinginterests,otherinstrumentsfromtheRussiantoolkitareandwill
continuetobeused.Forexample,anoutrightmilitaryattackagainsttheBalticstates
wouldberiskyforRussia.ItwouldcarrywithitthethreatofadevastatingNATO
retaliationandnuclearannihilation.Therefore,theBalticswillbesubjectedtoasteady
barrageofinformationoperations,disinformation,cyberattacks,airspaceviolations,
andpokingandproddingtorattlethecountriesnervesandunderminetheirconfidence
inNATO.
Germanywillbesubjectedtodisinformation,spying,andmeddlinginitsdomestic
politics.Francesright-wingNationalFrontwillbethetargetofRussianattemptsto
gaininfluenceinFrenchpolitics.AndtheU.S.governmentanditspartiescancounton
theircomputersbeingthefocusofspecialattentionbyRussianhackers,bothfrom
intelligenceservicesandthosekeptatarmslengthtopretendtheyarenotpartofthe
Russianstate.
EventsofthepastfewyearsfromtheannexationofCrimeatotheDNChackare
notanaberrationrather,theyarepartofthesamechain.Theadversarial,hostile
relationshipwithRussiaisheretostay.Putinisheretostay,too,sobettingon
outlastinghimwouldbeunwise.Heappearsverylikelytorunandbere-electedin
2018,whichmeanshewillbeintheKremlinuntil2024throughthenextU.S.
presidentialtermandtheoneafterthat.
Someoftheneededstepsarealreadybeingtakenmilitarypreparednessmovesthat
wereproposedandadoptedatNATOsWalesandWarsawsummitsarenecessaryand
willprobablybefollowedbymoremeasurestoboostNATOsconventionaland
nucleardefenseanddeterrentcapabilities.Buttanksandgunsalonearenotenough.
Moreneedstobedoneincyber,intelligence,informationoperation,andotherforms
ofhybridwarfare,aswellasdeterrence,alongwithresilienceanddefensemeasures
againstittomeetRussiaschallenge.Morealsoisneededtobereadytoconduct
counter-offensiveoperationswhentheneedarises.Andallofthishastobedonewhile
alsolookingforwaystoavoidaccidentalescalationandmaintainsomelinesof
communicationswiththeKremlin.RecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussia
presentsisthefirststeptowarddealingwithit.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/02/201610:12:45PM
To: kramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Re:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

Befair:

http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/07/20/russia-different-kind-of-threat/idml

OnAug2,2016,at4:14PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

Genewrotethis?Wow,quiteachange,especiallyRecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussia
presentsisthefirststeptowarddealingwithit.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,August02,20163:11PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-08-02/kremlins-advantage

TheKremlin'sAdvantage
ThehackoftheU.S.DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,nowwidelyattributed
toRussianintelligence,hassetoffapoliticalearthquakeintheUnitedStates.The
brazennessoftheattack,thecrudeattempttointerveneinaU.S.presidentialelection,
andtheequallybald-faceddenialinthefaceofmountingevidenceofRussian
governmentcomplicityhavepromptedahostofquestionsthatreallyamounttojust
one:How?Althoughafullysatisfactoryanswermayneverbefound,itisnottooearly
todrawsomeconclusionsfromtheepisodeconclusionsthatshouldinformthe
generaldiscourseaboutRussia,aswellasaboutthechallengethatRussiawillpresent
tothenextU.S.administration,regardlessofwhoiselectedinNovember.
Thoseexperts(includingthiswriter),who,outofanabundanceofcaution,initially
grappledwiththenewsoftheDNCbreak-inbyinvokingtheinherentdifficultyof
investigatingcybercrimes,nowhavethegrowingbodyoffactandanalysispointingto
Russiasroleinthehack.InkeepingwithNationalIntelligenceDirectorJames
Clappersrecentremarksonthissubject,theassumptionshouldbethatRussiawas
behindthebreak-in.Atthispoint,todenyitwouldsimplybemisleadingthepublic.
WhydidtheRussiangovernmentdoit?Becauseitcould.Knowledgeispower.
Havingtheinsidescooponanadversaryisasourceofleveragethatistoogoodto
passup.AndcollectingsuchintelligenceiswhattheRussianintelligenceserviceshave
alongrecordofdoingwithsomeskillandsuccess.
AndwhydidthehackersreleasethedatastolenfromtheDNC?Didtheyreallyintend
toundermineDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClintonandtohelptheir
presumedfavorite,theRepublicanDonaldTrump?Itwouldseemnaveordelusional
toexpectthattheleakwouldaffectthevoteinacountryofwellover300millionina
campaignwithsomanyresourcesbeingexpendedbysomanyinterests.Anyanalysis
oftheRussiangovernmentsintentionsrequiresagreatdealofspeculation.Butsome
thingsareknown.
Russiangovernmentandstate-sponsoredagentshaveintervenedinothercountries
electionsanddomesticpolitics.TheyhavedonesoinFrance,theNetherlands,
Germany,andItaly,justtonamesomeU.S.allies.ForRussiasneighborsUkraine,
theBalticstates,andMoldovaMoscowsheavyhandintheirdomesticpoliticsisa
constantworry.JustbecausetheUnitedStatesisbigandpowerfuldoesntmeanthat
itsdomesticpoliticsisnecessarilyofflimitstoRussianintelligence.Infact,theUnited
Statespositionintheworldastheonlytrulyglobalpowermakesitevenmoreofa
targetforRussianintelligence.
Kremlinoperativesprobablyrememberthatthe2000U.S.presidentialelectionwas
determinedbyafewhangingchads.The2016electionmaywellbedecidedbya
smallnumberofdisgruntledsupportersofformerDemocraticcontenderBernie
Sanders,asthesesupportersmaymakethedecisiontostayhome,insteadofvoting
forClinton.Inthatsense,thereleaseofstolenDNCdocumentsmaybejustthething
totipthescalesagainsther.
ThiswarrantsahardlookatwhetherTrumpisRussianPresidentVladimirPutins
favoredchoice.Therecordisremarkable:thepublicexchangeofpleasantriesbetween
TrumpandPutintheRussianmoneyreportedlyinvestedinTrumpsprojectshis
skeptical,transactionalapproachtoNATOhishintingatpossiblerecognitionof
CrimeaasRussianterritoryandliftingofthesanctionsonRussiaandhismostrecent
claimthatPutinisnotgoingtogointoUkraine.Atthesametime,Putinisonthe
recordaccusingClintonoffomentingunrestinRussia.AndClintonsdislikeofthe
RussianpresidentbeforetheDNChackwasequallywelldocumentedand
undoubtedlyhasgrownmoreintensesincethen.
Noneofthisshouldcomeasasurprise,justasnobodywassurprisedwhentheNorth
KoreangovernmenthackedintoSonyPicturescomputers.Theonlyshocktherewas
thetechnicalexpertisedemonstratedbytheparanoidhermitkingdom.AndRussian
rulersarejustasparanoidabouttheWesttheUnitedStates,inparticularandits
attemptstoencircleRussia,destabilizeitathome,andmarginalizeitontheworld
stage.
MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutRussianhybridwarfareatermthatcoversawide
rangeofactivities,includingcovertoperations,theuseofirregularsandcriminal
elements,cyberoperations,informationanddisinformationcampaigns,andsoon.
RussiahaspracticedhybridwarfarewithvaryingdegreesofsuccessinCrimea,in
easternUkraine,intheBalticstates,andinSyria.
LessnotedisthatRussiansecurityservicesseeRussiaasbeingevenmoreavictimof
hybridwarfarethananaggressor.U.S.supportfordemocracyinandaroundRussiais
athreattotheKremlin.ThereleaseofthePanamaPapers,whichrevealed
informationaboutthehiddenwealthandpresumedcorruptactivitiesoftherulingelite,
hasbeenportrayedbytheKremlinasaneffortinWashingtontodiscredititand
destabilizeRussia.Bythesametoken,theOlympicdopingscandalisalsoseenasa
WesternplotagainstRussia.U.S.-EUeconomicsanctionsagainstRussiathatwereput
inplaceinthewakeofRussiasinvasionofUkrainearedescribedasacoverforthe
realgoaltoweakenandpromoteregimechangeinRussia.
IntheeyesofRussianelites,Westernaggressionmustbemetwitharesponse.
HackingintoDNCcomputersandreleasinginformationontheDemocratsfundraising
practicesissimplypaybackforWesternmediareportsaboutelitecorruptioninRussia.
IthelpsboosttheRussiannarrativethatmoneyandpoliticsgohandinhand
everywhereandthatRussiaisnodifferentfromtheUnitedStatesorotherWestern
countrieswhosegovernmentsarecriticalofRussia.
Gettingcaughtred-handedlikelywontevenhurtPutinsstandingathome.The
Russianpublicislongusedtothewarofkompromatsdishingdirtonpolitical
opponentsorbusinesscompetitorswhichhasbecomeastapleofpost-Soviet
Russianpoliticsandbusiness.RussianbusinesstycoonsandtheKremlinpioneered
andfine-tunedthisformofcombatinthe1990susingmediaoutletstheyownedor
controlled.CriticismfromtheWestdoesntmeanmuchinRussiathesedaysPutins
popularapprovalratingshotuptonear90percentafterheannexedCrimea.
Andsothisisbusinessasusual.Russiaisoutgunneditsdefensespendingisa
fractionofthatoftheUnitedStates.TheRussianeconomy,too,isfarsmallerthanthe
UnitedStates.TheKremlinwillnottrytomatchtheUnitedStatesgunforgunand
tankfortank.Butitwillexploitwhatadvantagesithas.
Itwillusemilitaryforcecarefullywherethecorrelationofforcesfavorsitorwhere
itsmilitaryplannerscanassuretheirleadersthatmilitaryactionwillnotleadto
disaster.UkraineisthecaseinwhichtheKremlinhadacompellinginterest,clear
militarysuperiority,andanequallyclearassurancethattheUnitedStateswouldnot
intervene.
SyriawasanothercasewhereRussianmilitaryactionwasnecessarytoprotect
Russianinterestsandwasassociatedwithfewrisks.Itwasneededtosupportthe
falteringBasharal-AssadregimeandentailedrelativelysmallrisksbecausetheObama
administrationhadmadeclearitsreluctancetointervenemilitarilyinSyria.
Butwheretheuseofmilitaryforcecarrieswithitsignificantrisksthatarenotjustified
bycompellinginterests,otherinstrumentsfromtheRussiantoolkitareandwill
continuetobeused.Forexample,anoutrightmilitaryattackagainsttheBalticstates
wouldberiskyforRussia.ItwouldcarrywithitthethreatofadevastatingNATO
retaliationandnuclearannihilation.Therefore,theBalticswillbesubjectedtoasteady
barrageofinformationoperations,disinformation,cyberattacks,airspaceviolations,
andpokingandproddingtorattlethecountriesnervesandunderminetheirconfidence
inNATO.
Germanywillbesubjectedtodisinformation,spying,andmeddlinginitsdomestic
politics.Francesright-wingNationalFrontwillbethetargetofRussianattemptsto
gaininfluenceinFrenchpolitics.AndtheU.S.governmentanditspartiescancounton
theircomputersbeingthefocusofspecialattentionbyRussianhackers,bothfrom
intelligenceservicesandthosekeptatarmslengthtopretendtheyarenotpartofthe
Russianstate.
EventsofthepastfewyearsfromtheannexationofCrimeatotheDNChackare
notanaberrationrather,theyarepartofthesamechain.Theadversarial,hostile
relationshipwithRussiaisheretostay.Putinisheretostay,too,sobettingon
outlastinghimwouldbeunwise.Heappearsverylikelytorunandbere-electedin
2018,whichmeanshewillbeintheKremlinuntil2024throughthenextU.S.
presidentialtermandtheoneafterthat.
Someoftheneededstepsarealreadybeingtakenmilitarypreparednessmovesthat
wereproposedandadoptedatNATOsWalesandWarsawsummitsarenecessaryand
willprobablybefollowedbymoremeasurestoboostNATOsconventionaland
nucleardefenseanddeterrentcapabilities.Buttanksandgunsalonearenotenough.
Moreneedstobedoneincyber,intelligence,informationoperation,andotherforms
ofhybridwarfare,aswellasdeterrence,alongwithresilienceanddefensemeasures
againstittomeetRussiaschallenge.Morealsoisneededtobereadytoconduct
counter-offensiveoperationswhentheneedarises.Andallofthishastobedonewhile
alsolookingforwaystoavoidaccidentalescalationandmaintainsomelinesof
communicationswiththeKremlin.RecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussia
presentsisthefirststeptowarddealingwithit.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/04/201610:02:57AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS][ODOD---ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS/DICKINSONPIECEIS'MUSTDISSEMINATE']...[JDDD]A
Subject: belatedbutmajorvictoryforRussia'sstrikingLONG-HAULTRUCKERS+7MoreStories..[PB]WhatVladInterferesinUSElections.
[MK]TheDesi...
Attachments: PutinIsCullingHisInnerCircle.docxForeignAidAssetsTransferFromTobyhannatoUkraine.docx

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,August04,20169:36AM
Subject:Fwd:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS][ODOD---ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS/DICKINSONPIECEIS'MUSTDISSEMINATE']...[JDDD]A
belatedbutmajorvictoryforRussia'sstrikingLONG-HAULTRUCKERS+7MoreStories..[PB]WhatVladInterferesinUSElections.
[MK]TheDesi...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Thu,Aug4,2016at12:35PM
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS][ODOD---ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS/DICKINSONPIECEIS'MUST
DISSEMINATE']...[JDDD]AbelatedbutmajorvictoryforRussia'sstrikingLONG-HAULTRUCKERS+7More
Stories..[PB]WhatVladInterferesinUSElections.[MK]TheDesiretoPleaseDictators[FirstRatePiecebyXX'sJohnS]
[VLAD/K]PutinCullsInnerCircleFromTobyhannatoKyiv
To:

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Thu,Aug4,2016at9:54AM
Subject:UkraineNYT(2),WP,AC
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

TheNewYorkTimes
UkraineRejectsRussia'sProposedAmbassadortoKiev

ByREUTERSAUG.4,2016,9:27A.M.E.D.T.

Continuereadingthemainstory

KIEVUkrainehasrejectedRussia'sproposedcandidateforitsnextambassadortoKiev,aseniorUkrainianforeignministry
officialsaid.

MikhailZurabov,whowasMoscow'senvoyinKievduringanti-Russianstreetprotests,Russia's2014annexationofCrimeaand
itsinvolvementintheseparatistconflictineasternUkraine,steppeddowninJuly.

TheKremlinhasproposedMikhailBabich,whohasheldanumberofseniorofficialpostsinRussiaincludingwiththeFSBsecurity
service,butUkrainianforeignministryofficialOlenaZerkalsaidKievhaddecidednottoconsidertheproposal.

"Thewayitwasproposed,ithasbeenremovedfromtheagenda,"shesaidinatelevisedinterviewonchannel5onWednesday,
withoutgivingfurtherdetailonwhythecandidatewasrejected.

"Ithinkthiswillnothaveanysortofimpact.What'smore,theroleoftheformerambassadorinbuildingnormalrelationswas
completelyminimal,"shesaid.

InremarkstonewsagencyInterfaxUkraine,UkrainianForeignMinisterPavloKlimkinsaidtherejectionwas"notaquestionof
thecandidatesoranythingconcrete,butaboutcreatingapositivedynamicinwhat'shappeningwithinthecontextofRussian
aggression."

UkrainereplaceditsownambassadortoMoscowwithatemporaryrepresentativein2014followingthecollapseinrelations
betweentheformerallies.

KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaiditwouldcontinuetoofferBabichasapotentialambassadortoUkraine.

"However,iftheUkrainiansidetakesadecisiontolowerthelevelofourdiplomaticrelationsandconsidersthisreducedmodeof
diplomaticrelationstobeappropriate-that'sthedecisionoftheUkrainianside,"hetoldjournalists.

KievandNATOaccuseRussiaofsupportingpro-RussianseparatistsineasternUkrainewithtroopsandweapons,fuellinga
conflictthathaskilledover9,400.TheKremlindeniesinvolvement.

(ReportingbyNataliaZinetsWritingbyAlessandraPrenticeEditingbyRichardBalmforth)

TheNewYorkTimes
CivilianCasualtiesHighestinaYearinUkraine:U.N.RightsBoss

ByREUTERSAUG.3,2016,6:03A.M.E.D.T.

Continuereadingthemainstory

GENEVACiviliancasualtiesfromshelling,minesandboobytrapsineasternUkraineareattheirhighestinayearas
governmentforcesandpro-Moscowseparatistsconstantlyviolateaceasefire,theU.N.rightsbosssaidonWednesday.

UnitedNationsHighCommissionerforHumanRightsZeidRa'adAlHusseinsaidatleast69civilianshadbeenkilledorwounded
inJune,doublethefigureforthepreviousmonth,withthefigureat73inJuly.

CasualtiesineasternUkrainecasualtieswerethehighestsinceAugust2015,Zeidsaidinastatement.

"Civiliansareonceagainhavingtofleetoimprovisedbombsheltersintheirbasements,sometimesovernight,withincreasing
frequencythepriceoftheceasefireviolationsistoohighforthewomen,menandchildrenineasternUkraine,"hesaid.

Forcesmustdisengageandimplementafullandsustainableceasefire,inlinewiththeMinskagreementofFebruary2015,hesaid.

"ThemanycasualtieswehavedocumentedinrecentweekssuggestthatneitherUkrainianforcesnorthearmedgroupsaretaking
thenecessaryprecautionstoprotectcivilians,"hesaid.[ED:TheneweuphemismintheNYTforRUoccupyingforcesin
Ukraineis:'armedgroups'..YaGottaLuv't]

ShellingwasresponsibleformorethanhalftherecordedcasualtiesinJuneandJuly,withtherestduetomines,explosiveremnants
ofwar,boobytrapsandimprovisedexplosivedevices(IEDs).

"U.N.humanrightsteamsonbothsidesofthecontactlinehavedocumentedreportsofcivilianhomeslooted,schoolsand
hospitalsshelledorusedbyUkrainianforcesandarmedgroups,"Zeidsaid.

The12-pointMinskpeacedealwasbrokeredbyUkraine,Russia,GermanyandFranceinFebruary2015.Theaimwastoenda
conflictthattheU.N.rightsofficesaidonWednesdayhadkilledover9,550people,includingsoldiers,civiliansandmembersof
armedgroups,sinceApril2014.

Conditionsincludingacompletecessationoffighting,pull-backofheavyweaponsfromthefrontline,andreleaseofprisonersof
warhavenotyetbeenfulfilled,raisingconcernstheceasefireagreementcouldcollapse.

(ReportingbyStephanieNebehayEditingbyRichardBalmforth)

TheWashingtonPost
Trumpsshallownessrunsdeep

ByGeorgeF.WillOpinionwriter

August3at7:05PM(August4printedition)

WhenhostGeorgeStephanopoulosasked,WhydidyousoftentheGOPplatformonUkraine?removingthecallfor
providinglethalweaponsforUkrainetodefenditselfTrumpsaid:[Putins]notgoingintoUkraine,okay?Justsoyou
understand.HesnotgoingtogointoUkraine,allright?Youcanmarkitdownandyoucanputitdown,youcantakeitanywhere
youwant.

Stephanopoulos:Well,hesalreadythere,isnthe?
Trump:Okay,well,hesthereinacertainway,butImnotthereyet.Youhave[President]Obamathere.Andfrankly,thatwhole
partoftheworldisamessunderObama,withallthestrengththatyouretalkingaboutandallofthepowerofNATOandallof
this,inthemeantime,hesgoingwherehetakestakesCrimea,hessortofImean...

WhatTrump,inthatwordsalad,callsthecertainwaythatPutinisinCrimeaiscalledannexation,enforcedbytheRussianarmy.
ButTrumpchannelinghisinnerWoodrowWilsonandhisprincipleofethnicself-determinationsayswhathashappenedto
CrimeaissortofdemocraticbecausefromwhatIveheardthepeopleofCrimeawouldratherbewithRussiathanwherethey
were.

Readfullcolumn:http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/trumps-shallowness-runs-
deep/2016/08/03/f7311b20-58d3-11e6-831d-0324760ca856_story.html

AtlanticCouncil

AUGUST3,2016

HowtheInternationalMediaEnablesRussianAggressioninUkraine

BYPETERDICKINSON

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-the-international-media-enables-russian-aggression-in-ukraine

Ifanyonehadattemptedtoreporton"German-backedforces"inNazi-occupiedFranceor"pro-Sovietforces"duringthePrague
Spring,theywouldhavebeendismissedaseitherhopelesslymisinformedordeeplydisingenuous.Whilelocalcollaboratorsand
convenienteuphemismswereplentifulinbothinstances,therewasneveranydoubtastowhowasreallyincontrol.Thiscommon
senseapproachseemstohavebeenlostinUkraine,wheretheinternationalmediahasplayedakeyroleincreatingtheambiguity
thathasallowedRussiashybridwartosucceed.

WhyhasthemediabeensocautiousaboutRussiasroleintheconflict?Itisnotduetoalackofevidence.ProofofRussian
involvementhasbeenoverwhelmingsincetheearlydaysofthefightingineasternUkraine.Almostalloftheinitialleadersofthe
breakawayrepublicswereRussiancitizens.InternationaljournaliststhemselveshavewitnessedconvoysfullofRussianweapons
crossingtheborderandinterviewedRussianofficersintheconflictzone,whileevenpro-KremlinreportersinUkrainehaveslipped
upbybroadcastingfootageofequipmentonlyavailabletotheRussianmilitary.

Onlinesleuthshaveproducedconvincingevidenceofcross-borderRussianartilleryattacksonUkrainianpositions,whilethesocial
mediaselfiesofRussiansoldiershaveexposedtheirdeploymentinUkraine.TherehavebeeninstancesofentiregroupsofRussian
troopscaptureddeepinsidetheUkrainiancombatzone,whichtheKremlinhasdealtwithbydisowningsomeandclaimingothers
simply"gotlost."

TheMH17incidentisworthyofawholechapterofitsown:sophisticatedanti-aircraftsystemsarenotdeployedacross
internationalbordersandintoconflictzonesinisolation.

ThenthereisthewholesubjectoftheRussian"volunteers"and"vacationers,"amotleycrewofRussianmilitarypersonnel
operatingalongsidearmyveterans,mercenaries,far-rightfanatics,andcriminaldregs.Figureheadsforthesefightershave
repeatedlyputtheiroverallnumberatfiftythousandastaggeringfigurewhenonerecallshowearlyinsurgencyposterboyIhor
"Strelkov"GirkinadmittedattheheightofthefightinginMay2014thathehadstruggledtorecruitonethousandDonbasresidents.

WhatemergesisapictureofamanufacturedinsurgencyinspiredbyKremlinoperatives,armedbytheRussianmilitary,manned
predominantlybyRussianfighters,andledfromMoscow.Nevertheless,mostinternationalnewsoutletscontinuetohedgetheir
bets.Manyreporton"pro-Russianforces,"despitetheredundancyofsuchtermswhendiscussingRussiannationals.
HeavyweightsliketheBBCandCanadasCBCacknowledgetheRussianfactorwhilestillreferringtoa"UkrainianCivilWar."

Therearenumerousreasonswhythemediahasbeensoneuteredinitschoiceofwording.Onekeyfactoristhecommitmentto
objectivitythatmarksWesternjournalism(intheory,atleast).Thisdedicationtotelling"bothsidesofthestory"hasbeen
masterfullyexploitedbytheKremlin,whichhasmanagedtoshiftthemiddlegroundbydemandingtheinclusionofitsown
narratives.AclassicexampleofthiswasthedepictionofUkrainespopularuprisingagainstanauthoritarianregimeasaCIA-led
fascistcoup.

Whenfacedwithsuchstrikinglydifferentnarratives,therecanbenomeaningfulbalance.Instead,journalistscaneithermakea
judgmentcallorremainstringentlyneutral.Thevastmajorityhaveoptedforthelatter.Tohavedoneotherwisewouldhavemeant
abandoningthecoreethicalobligationsofmodernjournalism.Yetbyavoidingcommonsenseconclusions,theyhaveprovidedan
invaluableservicetotheKremlin.

Theinternationalmediahasalsotakenitsleadfromthepoliticalarena.Russiasdenialsofinvolvementrequirenofurther
explanation,butUkrainemustalsoacceptafairshareofresponsibility.Kyivhasrefusedtoofficiallyacknowledgeastateofwar
andhaschosentoportraytheconflictasananti-terroristoperation.Thereareanumberoflegalandstrategicargumentsforthis,
notleastthedesiretokeepinternationalfinancingchannelsopenwhiledenyingtheKremlinanyopportunitytoembarkonafull-
scalemilitaryinvasion.Evenso,ithascreatedmoreconfusion.

Thereasonsforreticenceonthepartofinternationalpoliticalleadersarehardertofathom.Somehavespokenfranklyabout
Russianmilitaryaggression,whileothershavesoughtthesafetyofgeneralreferencesto"Russianinvolvement,"whilecallingonall
sidestoceasehostilities.PerhapstheyhopetokeepRussiasexitoptionsopenandavoidafull-scalemilitaryconfrontationwiththe
Kremlin.

Thisisnottosaytherehasbeennoprogress.Intheearlydaysoftheconflict,manymediaoutletschosetoportraythefightingas
anexclusivelyUkrainiandomesticaffair,employingtermssuchas"Ukrainianrebels"and"anti-Kyivseparatists."Thesemonikers
havegraduallybeenreplacedby"Russian-backedforces"and"pro-Russianforces."TheUSStateDepartmentsoughttotakethis
evolutionastepfurtherbyintroducingthephrase"combinedRussian-separatistforces"inspring2015.Thistechnicallyaccurate
butsomewhatawkwardtermhasfailedtoshiftperceptions.Itposesquestionsratherthanprovidingclarity:isRussiamerely
providingsomemilitaryadvisers?Whataretherelativeproportionswithinthiscombinedforce?Outsideobserversmayreachthe
conclusionthatRussiasinvolvementisanythingbutdecisive.

InlightofthechallengespresentedbyRussiashybridapproachtointernationalconflict,theinternationalcommunityclearlyneedsa
newlexicon.TheconceptofRussianhybridwarfarehasgonemainstreamoverthepasttwo-and-a-halfyears,buthasyetto
translateintothekindofunambiguousterminologycapableofaccuratelyportrayingwhatRussiaisdoingineastUkraine.Onenew
wayofdescribingthemilitaryunitsineastUkrainecouldbe"hybridRussianforces":thiswouldhighlightRussiasoverall
responsibility,whileacknowledgingthattheforcesinquestionaremixedincompositionanddifferfromconventionalarmedforces.
Likewise,whatisvariouslycalled"theUkrainecrisis"or"theUkraineconflict"wouldbemoreaccuratelydescribedasa"Russian
hybridwar."

Ithaslongbeenclaimedthatthepenismightierthanthesword,andthishasneverbeentruerthanintheinformationage.The
internationalmediahasplayedakeyroleinenablingRussiashybridwaragainstUkraineitcannowhelptoturnthetideby
adoptingterminologythataccuratelycapturestherealitiesbehindthebloodshed.

PeterDickinsonisthepublisherofBusinessUkrainemagazineandLvivToday,andeditor-at-largeatTheOdessaReview.
HewaspreviouslychiefeditorofUkraineTodayandWhatsOnKyiv.

Seehttp://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticistandscrollforadditionalrecentblogsregardingUkraine.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Thu,Aug4,2016at11:56AM
Subject:AbelatedbutmajorvictoryforRussia'sstrikingLONG-HAULTRUCKERS:"'PLATON"willbefrozenfor
threeyears,"http://www.gazeta.ru/auto/2016/08/02_a_9742031.shtml
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

AbelatedbutmajorvictoryforRussia'sstrikingLONG-HAULTRUCKERS:"'PLATON"willbefrozenfor
threeyears,"http://www.gazeta.ru/auto/2016/08/02_a_9742031.shtml

AshasbecomeknowntoGazeta.ruinthegovernmenttheyarepreparedtocorrecttheawaitedlevies
fromthePlatonsystem,leavingthemattheirpresentleveluntil2019[i.e.,beyondthe2018presidential
election].

And:TimMAK,AlexaCORSE,TRUMPcampaignchangedUKRAINEplatform,LIEDabout
it,thedailybeast.com,8/4

TopTrumpaidePaulMANAFORTsworethatthecampaignhadnothingtodowiththeradicalchange
intheRepublicanPartypositiononUkraine.Hewaslying.

And:KYIVdoesnotagreetotheappointmentofanewambassadorfromRussiatoUkraine[ultra-
hardlinerMikhailBABICH],http://echo.msk.ru/news/1814178-echo-html

And:PESKOV:WeasbeforeareofferingBABICHforthepostofambassadorto
Ukraine,http://graniru.org/Politics/Russia/m.253553.html

PeskovisthreateningUkrainewithadowngradeindiplomaticrelations.

And:UkraineintelidentifiesDOZENSofRussiancitizensfightinginUkraine(LIST,
PHOTOS),unian.info,8/4

And:IntheDonetskPeoplesRepublictheydonotexcludearenewalofFULL-SCALEMILITARY
ACTIONSintheDonbas,http://graniru.org/Politics/World/Europe/Ukraine/m.253547.html

And:MikhailFISHMAN,TheKremlinsFINALWARNING:WhyYaroslavlsex-mayorisserving12.5
yearsinjail,themsocowtimes.com,8/4

And:RussiadevelopingCHEMICALWARFAREROBOTS,themoscowtimes.com,8/4

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@earthlink.net>
Date:Thu,Aug4,2016at12:30PM
Subject:3reasonsRussiasVladimirPutinmightwanttointerfereintheU.S.presidentialelections|Brookings
Institution
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

However,mostimportantly--becausehecan.And,hecangetawaywithit.Onceagain,herubsUS/EUnoseinpooand
nobodydoesanythingaboutit.

It'saverypowerfulmessagetotherestoftheworld,aswellastothepeopleofRussia,whotaketoitlikethecrowdsinthe
Colosseumtooktonewgamesinthearena.

"MynameisPutin,rulerofrulers:
Lookonmyworks,yeMighty,anddespair!"

(WithallduerespectandapologiestoShelley)

http://www.brookings.edu/2016/08/03/3-reasons-russias-vladimir-putin-might-want-to-interfere-in-the-u-s-presidential-elections/?
utm_campaign=Brookings+Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=32468054

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,Aug4,2016at4:28AM
Subject:TheDesiretoPleaseDictators:WhyTrumpsCrimeaGaffeMatters
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TheDesiretoPleaseDictators:WhyTrumpsCrimeaGaffeMatters

"It'seasytodismissfar-offCrimeaasamatteroflittleimportancetoAmericansinanelectionyear,especiallysincedefactothe
peninsulareallyisRussiasnow,andUkrainelacksthepowertochangethepost-2014statusquo.YetCrimeamattersforseveral
reasons,rangingfromthepragmatictothephilosophical.

Inthefirstplace,ifRussiacanoccupypartsofneighboringcountriesthatincludeethnicRussiansanytimeMoscowfeelslikeit,we
canexpectPutintodothisagain.Probablysoon.ItsnotliketheWestsacquiescenceinallowingGermanytousesimilarlogicto
occupyAustriaandthentheSudetenlandinthelate1930sexactlysatedAdolfHitler."

http://observer.com/2016/08/the-desire-to-please-dictators-why-trumps-crimea-gaffe-matters/#.V6LxNjEIYWQ.twitter

OPINION
TheDesiretoPleaseDictators:WhyTrumps
CrimeaGaffeMatters
RussiasillegaloccupationwasnotapoliticalissueintheUSuntilDonaldTrumpmadeit
one
ByJohnR.Schindler08/03/168:45am

RepublicanPresidentialcandidateDonaldTrump.(Photo:JoshuaLott/GettyImages)

ItsAugustandwereofficiallyinthisyearspresidentialcontestinaseriousway.Nowthatbothparties
haveanointednomineesattheirconventions,campaigningbeginsinearnestwiththeelectioninearly
Novemberonlythreemonthsandmuchhardelectoralsloggingaway.

HillaryClintonscoronationinPhiladelphiaattheDemocraticconventiongotofftoarockystartlastweek
withrevelationsofmessysquabblingandshadydealingsthanksto20,000stolenDemocraticNational
CommitteeinternalemailsthatappearedonthewebsiteofWikileaks,theprivacyorganizationthat,asI
explainedindetail,nowfunctionsasanarmoftheKremlin.
DonaldTrumphasdonehimselfandtheRepublicanpartynofavorswithhisreactiontotheWikileaks
operation,however.InitiallydismissingallegationsofRussianinvolvementasajoke,Trumpthenasked
Moscowtolocatethemorethan30,000emailsthatClintonandherstaffdeletedinEmailGate.While
itshighlylikelythattheKremlinindeeddoeshaveHillarysmissingemails,encouragingahostileintelligence
servicetopillagethecommunicationsoffellowAmericansrepresentsagenuinelynoveldevelopmentinour
politics.
Tomakemattersworse,TrumpthenattackedtheparentsofaMuslimsoldierwhowaskilledinIraqwhile
servingasanofficerintheU.S.Army.MakenomistaketheKhanfamilyappearedattheDemocratic
conventioninapoliticalroleandtheybadmouthedTrumpthere.Thatsaid,theopticsofgoingafterthe
grievingparentsinpublicaresobadastodefybeliefthatanybodywoulddoitrepeatedly.AttackingGold
Starparents,too,isanoveldevelopmentinourpolitics.

ItsapparentthattheDemocratslaidacunningtrapforTrumpwiththeKhans,knowinghowthemediawas
likelytocoverthestory,andtheRepublicannomineewalkedstraightrightintoit,mouthblazing.Itsno
wonderthatTrumpspollsnumbershavebeendroppinginrecentdayswhileHillarysarerising.

Amidalltheseunforcederrorsinasingle,disastrousweekfortheGOP,Trumpmadeanotherstatementthat
hasntgottentheattentionitdeserves,betweentheRepublicannomineesotherhighlypublicizedgaffes.

ThiswasacommenthemadeaboutCrimea,theUkrainianregionontheBlackSeathatwasannexedby
Russianforcesinearly2014,settingoffwhatItermedatthetimeColdWar2.0.OnSundaysThis
WeekprogramonABC,TrumpappearedtoacceptMoscowsoccupationofCrimea,indicatingthat,as
president,hewouldlookatrecognizingRussianrulethere,addingmemorably,thepeopleofCrimea,
fromwhatIveheard,wouldratherbewithRussiathanwheretheywere.
Makingmattersworse,TrumpthendeniedRussiasmilitaryinvolvementinUkraine,statingtwiceof
PresidentVladimirPutin,HesnotgoingintoUkraine.Thisoverlooksthewell-knownfactthatsince2014
occupiedCrimeahasbecomeamajorRussianmilitaryvenue,withtheKremlinpubliclyboastingofa
hundrednewunitsstationedonthepeninsula.MoscowsforcesinCrimeaincludetheBlackSeaFleet(with
acruiser,adestroyer,fourfrigates,fivesubmarinesplusnumeroussmallervessels),whiletheair
forcerecentlyshowcaseditspowerinamemorabledemonstrationofstrengthoverCrimea.Andletsnot
forgetthetwowholeRussianarmycorpsninebrigadesplusfiveregimentsthatoccupyasubstantial
chunkofeasternUkraineandareinvolvedindailycombatoperationsagainstUkrainianforces.

TrumphassignaledtoMoscowandeveryoneelsehowlittle
Article5wouldmeaninhisadministration.

Bizarrely,whenchallengedbyABCsGeorgeStephanopoulos,Trumpsemi-backtrackedandwentonto
blamePresidentObama:OK,well,hesthereinacertainway,butImnotthereyet.YouhaveObama
there.AssomeonewhohasbeensharplycriticalofthisWhiteHousesditheringpolicyinUkraine,letme
stateclearlythattheonlypeoplewhoblameObamaforPutinsannexationofCrimeaareKremlin
propagandists,usuallyofthepaidvariety.

TherearetwooptionstoexplainsomanyerrorsbyTrumpinafewsentences.Eitherheiscluelessabout
CrimeaandUkraine,beingtotallyunfamiliarwiththebasicissues,anddecidedtopontificateonthesubject
regardlesswhileonnationaltelevision.OrheisconsciouslyparrotingKremlinpropaganda.Thereisnothird
choicehere.

ThatTrumpisseriouslydeficientinmattersofforeignaffairsandnationalsecurityisnosecret,sincehe
seemstolackbasicawarenessofanymilitaryissues,thereforethathesimplytalkedonliveTVwithout
knowinganythingcannotberuledout.

However,theTrumpcampaignhasshownunusualinterestinallmattersRussian,eventhoughthenominee
cantquiteexplainjustwhathisrelationshipwithPutinactuallyis,orifoneexistsatallthis,too,cameup
intheStephanopoulosinterview.SeveraltopcampaignstafferspossesstroublingtiestotheKremlin,asIve
previouslyelaborated,whileTrumpspeoplechangedtheGOPspartyplatformattherecentconventionin
ClevelandandnottoUkrainesbenefit.
There,theplatformsproposedlanguageonUkrainewasweakenedfromprovidingthatcountrylethal
defensiveweaponstomerelyappropriateassistance.AlthoughTrumpandhiscampaignhavedeniedthey
werebehindtheverbiagechange,thishasbeenproventobealie.
HereonesuspectsthehandofPaulManafort,Trumpscampaignchairman,whoworkedforseveralyears
asatopadvisertoViktorYanukovych,Ukrainesthuggishandthievishpresidentwhowasthrownform
officeinearly2014andpromptlyfledtoRussia.Thiswasnosurprise,sinceYanukovychwasverymuch
MoscowsmanandheenjoyedacloserelationshipwiththeKremlinanditssecurityservices,whichwere
allowedfreereigninUkraineaslongasYanukoyvchwasboss.
OnceitbecameapparentthatTrumpscommentsonCrimeawereadebacle,hiscampaignchangeditsstory.
Thecandidatehimselfham-handedlytriedtowalkbackhiswords,whilehiscampaignco-chairbizarrely
statedthatTrumpwasthinkingaboutsomethingelsewhenhesaidthatPutinwasntgoingtogointo
Ukraine.
TrumpthenretortedthattryingtopryCrimeaawayfromRussianowwouldstartWorldWarIIIa
statementthatistruebututterlymissesthepoint.IfObamadecidednottofightRussiaoverCrimeaawise
choicesinceJointChiefsofStaffwouldhavebalkedanywaythenextpresident,whoeveritmaybe,will
neverseektoturnbacktheclock,giventhethousandsofnuclearweaponsinRussiaspossession.Thisis
straw-manningbyTrumpthatmeritsderision.

However,publiclyacquiescinginRussiasviolenttheftofCrimea,whilelyingabouttheKremlins
misconductinUkraine,representsapoliticalandmoralturningpointfortheTrumpcampaign.Simplyput,
onlyRussiaplusitsfriendsandvassalsrecognizeMoscowsoccupationofCrimea.Therestoftheworldhas
beenadmirablyclearthatthetheftofCrimeawasanillegalactthatoughtnotberecognized.

TheTrumpcampaigndoesntseemtooconcernedaboutfacts
thesedays.

TheUnitedNationshasspoken,withaMarch2014GeneralAssemblyresolutionrecognizingUkraines
sovereigntyandterritorialintegrity:100memberssupporteditwhileonly11votedagainst.TheUnitedStates
alongwiththeEuropeanUnionhavespokenwithonevoiceontheCrimeaissue,enforcingeconomic
sanctionsonRussiathathavecausedrealpainforPutin.RecognizingRussiasillegaloccupationwasnota
political,muchlessapartisan,issueinourcountry,beyonditsoddfringesuntilDonaldTrumpmadeitone.

Itseasytodismissfar-offCrimeaasamatteroflittleimportancetoAmericansinanelectionyear,especially
sincedefactothepeninsulareallyisRussiasnow,andUkrainelacksthepowertochangethepost-2014
statusquo.YetCrimeamattersforseveralreasons,rangingfromthepragmatictothephilosophical.

Inthefirstplace,ifRussiacanoccupypartsofneighboringcountriesthatincludeethnicRussiansanytime
Moscowfeelslikeit,wecanexpectPutintodothisagain.Probablysoon.ItsnotliketheWests
acquiescenceinallowingGermanytousesimilarlogictooccupyAustriaandthentheSudetenlandinthelate
1930sexactlysatedAdolfHitler.

IfthecountriesoftheformerSovietUnionthatincludeRussianminoritiesthatsmostofthemare
reallyMoscowstobecarveduponethniclines,theKremlinsknivesareready.Andsomeofthe
countriesthatwillbecarvedupbelongtoNATO,andtheywillbesuretoinvokeArticle5,theAlliances
collectivedefenseprovision,whentheRussiansarrive.

NotthatTrumpseemstothinkNATOsworthmuchanyway.HavingcalledtheAtlanticAlliancevery
obsoletewhilestatingthat,aspresident,hewouldonlycometotheaidofNATOmemberswhowereinhis
goodgraces,TrumphassignaledtoMoscowandeveryoneelsehowlittleArticle5wouldmeaninhis
administration.
Ourallieshavenoticed.InEstonia,wherefearsofRussiaareacuteasIrecentlyexplainedandtheir
cyber-savvypresidentshamesTrumpsonlinetrolls,seniorofficialsareopenlyworriedaboutapossible
Trumppresidency.TopsecurityfolksinalltheBalticstatesnowplainlycalltheRepublicannomineethe
KremlinsmananddreadhispossiblemovingintotheWhiteHouseinJanuary.
IthardlyhelpsthatNewtGingrich,theGOPstalwartwhosclosetotheTrumpcampaign,recentlycastigated
NATOmemberswhoarentpullingtheirmilitaryweight,blowingoffEstoniaasbeinginthesuburbsofSt.
Petersburg.ThiswastakenbyEstoniansasanunambiguoussignalthatArticle5wontapplytothemina
Trumppresidency.
ThiswasaperversemisstatementbyGingrich,giventhatlittleEstoniaisoneoftheveryfewNATO
membersthatactuallyspendsthenotionallyrequiredtwopercentofGDPondefense.Anybodyeven
cursorilyinformedaboutNATOknowsthatEstoniapuncheswellaboveitsweightintheAtlanticAlliance.

NottomentionthatEstoniaisinSt.PetersburgssuburbsonlyinGingrichsmind.Theactualdistancefrom
thebordertoRussiassecond-biggestcityisahundredmilesthesamedistancethatPhiladelphiaisfrom
ManhattanbuttheTrumpcampaigndoesntseemtooconcernedaboutfactsthesedays.UsingGingrichs
logic,southTexasisrightfullyMexicossinceMonterreyisonlyhundredmilesfromtheRioGrande.

LetsbeclearthattheCrimeaissuehasimpactsfarbeyondtheBaltics.Ourrivalsworldwidewatched
Putinssmash-and-grabofCrimeawiththeLittleGreenMenofGRU,hismilitaryintelligenceservice,with
intenseinterest.Thisplaybookcannowbecopiedbyothercountries,particularlyifPresidentTrumpwont
doanythingaboutit.
WouldTrump,ascommander-in-chief,simplyletChinaoccupyTaiwan,asthePeoplesLiberationArmy
hasdreamedoffordecades?WhataboutallthosetinylittleislandsintheSouthChinaSeathatBeijing
nakedlycovets?ThesearequestionsthattheRepublicannomineenowneedstobeasked,plainlyand
directly.

Cometothinkofit,Iranhasdesignsbeyonditsborderstoo.Asdoseveralothercountriesthatarenot
exactlyfriendsofours.Afterthecatastropheof1914-45,whentwoworldwarskilledsome75million
peoplebetweencombatandgenocide,theworld,ledbytheUnitedStates,establishednewinternational
normsthatsoughttominimizetheterritorialconflictsthatcausedthehorrorsofthetwentiethcenturys
blood-drenchedfirsthalf.

Thateffortwasimperfectanditsnot-always-efficientdiplomaticmechanismscansometimesseem
downrightsilly.Butthepost-1945worldorder,ledbyAmerica,hasbeenfarmoresuccessfulthananything
beforeit.Warsreallyarerarernow,whilemajorconflictseemsallbutunthinkable,especiallyamong
nuclear-armedpowers.

Theancientshadatakeonforeignrelationsthatwasmemorablyexpressedasthestrongdowhattheycan
andtheweaksufferwhattheymust.Thislawofthejungleledtocountlesswarsrightuntilthemid-
20thcentury,whentheappallingcostoflettingaggressorssimplydoastheywishedbecameobvioustoall
buttheblind.

DonaldTrumpsforeignpolicyvision,withitsdesiretopleasedictatorsuntiltheyhopefullybehave,seemsto
bemorecomfortablewiththenormsoftheancientsthanwiththoseofthecurrentcentury.Thisiswhy
Crimeamatters.Trumpsconceptofinternationalrelationswillonlyencouragemoreaggressionagainstthe
weakwhilequitepossiblyunleashingmajorwarandgeopoliticalhellwithit.

Disclosure:DonaldTrumpisthefather-in-lawofJaredKushner,thepublisherofObserverMedia.
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligence
officer.Aspecialistinespionageandterrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.
HespublishedfourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VladK
Date:Thu,Aug4,2016at11:32AM
Subject:UkeNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Thanks for including me on your distribution. Attached are two articles for your reading.

From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 08/02/201601:14:42PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

Genewrotethis?Wow,quiteachange,especiallyRecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussiapresentsisthe
firststeptowarddealingwithit.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,August02,20163:11PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-08-02/kremlins-advantage

TheKremlin'sAdvantage
ThehackoftheU.S.DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,nowwidelyattributedtoRussian
intelligence,hassetoffapoliticalearthquakeintheUnitedStates.Thebrazennessoftheattack,
thecrudeattempttointerveneinaU.S.presidentialelection,andtheequallybald-faceddenialin
thefaceofmountingevidenceofRussiangovernmentcomplicityhavepromptedahostof
questionsthatreallyamounttojustone:How?Althoughafullysatisfactoryanswermayneverbe
found,itisnottooearlytodrawsomeconclusionsfromtheepisodeconclusionsthatshould
informthegeneraldiscourseaboutRussia,aswellasaboutthechallengethatRussiawillpresent
tothenextU.S.administration,regardlessofwhoiselectedinNovember.
Thoseexperts(includingthiswriter),who,outofanabundanceofcaution,initiallygrappledwith
thenewsoftheDNCbreak-inbyinvokingtheinherentdifficultyofinvestigatingcybercrimes,
nowhavethegrowingbodyoffactandanalysispointingtoRussiasroleinthehack.Inkeeping
withNationalIntelligenceDirectorJamesClappersrecentremarksonthissubject,the
assumptionshouldbethatRussiawasbehindthebreak-in.Atthispoint,todenyitwouldsimply
bemisleadingthepublic.
WhydidtheRussiangovernmentdoit?Becauseitcould.Knowledgeispower.Havingtheinside
scooponanadversaryisasourceofleveragethatistoogoodtopassup.Andcollectingsuch
intelligenceiswhattheRussianintelligenceserviceshavealongrecordofdoingwithsomeskill
andsuccess.
AndwhydidthehackersreleasethedatastolenfromtheDNC?Didtheyreallyintendto
undermineDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClintonandtohelptheirpresumedfavorite,
theRepublicanDonaldTrump?Itwouldseemnaveordelusionaltoexpectthattheleakwould
affectthevoteinacountryofwellover300millioninacampaignwithsomanyresourcesbeing
expendedbysomanyinterests.AnyanalysisoftheRussiangovernmentsintentionsrequiresa
greatdealofspeculation.Butsomethingsareknown.
Russiangovernmentandstate-sponsoredagentshaveintervenedinothercountrieselectionsand
domesticpolitics.TheyhavedonesoinFrance,theNetherlands,Germany,andItaly,justto
namesomeU.S.allies.ForRussiasneighborsUkraine,theBalticstates,andMoldova
Moscowsheavyhandintheirdomesticpoliticsisaconstantworry.JustbecausetheUnited
Statesisbigandpowerfuldoesntmeanthatitsdomesticpoliticsisnecessarilyofflimitsto
Russianintelligence.Infact,theUnitedStatespositionintheworldastheonlytrulyglobal
powermakesitevenmoreofatargetforRussianintelligence.
Kremlinoperativesprobablyrememberthatthe2000U.S.presidentialelectionwasdetermined
byafewhangingchads.The2016electionmaywellbedecidedbyasmallnumberof
disgruntledsupportersofformerDemocraticcontenderBernieSanders,asthesesupportersmay
makethedecisiontostayhome,insteadofvotingforClinton.Inthatsense,thereleaseofstolen
DNCdocumentsmaybejustthethingtotipthescalesagainsther.
ThiswarrantsahardlookatwhetherTrumpisRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsfavored
choice.Therecordisremarkable:thepublicexchangeofpleasantriesbetweenTrumpandPutin
theRussianmoneyreportedlyinvestedinTrumpsprojectshisskeptical,transactionalapproach
toNATOhishintingatpossiblerecognitionofCrimeaasRussianterritoryandliftingofthe
sanctionsonRussiaandhismostrecentclaimthatPutinisnotgoingtogointoUkraine.Atthe
sametime,PutinisontherecordaccusingClintonoffomentingunrestinRussia.AndClintons
dislikeoftheRussianpresidentbeforetheDNChackwasequallywelldocumentedand
undoubtedlyhasgrownmoreintensesincethen.
Noneofthisshouldcomeasasurprise,justasnobodywassurprisedwhentheNorthKorean
governmenthackedintoSonyPicturescomputers.Theonlyshocktherewasthetechnical
expertisedemonstratedbytheparanoidhermitkingdom.AndRussianrulersarejustasparanoid
abouttheWesttheUnitedStates,inparticularanditsattemptstoencircleRussia,destabilizeit
athome,andmarginalizeitontheworldstage.
MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutRussianhybridwarfareatermthatcoversawiderangeof
activities,includingcovertoperations,theuseofirregularsandcriminalelements,cyber
operations,informationanddisinformationcampaigns,andsoon.Russiahaspracticedhybrid
warfarewithvaryingdegreesofsuccessinCrimea,ineasternUkraine,intheBalticstates,andin
Syria.
LessnotedisthatRussiansecurityservicesseeRussiaasbeingevenmoreavictimofhybrid
warfarethananaggressor.U.S.supportfordemocracyinandaroundRussiaisathreattothe
Kremlin.ThereleaseofthePanamaPapers,whichrevealedinformationaboutthehiddenwealth
andpresumedcorruptactivitiesoftherulingelite,hasbeenportrayedbytheKremlinasaneffort
inWashingtontodiscredititanddestabilizeRussia.Bythesametoken,theOlympicdoping
scandalisalsoseenasaWesternplotagainstRussia.U.S.-EUeconomicsanctionsagainstRussia
thatwereputinplaceinthewakeofRussiasinvasionofUkrainearedescribedasacoverforthe
realgoaltoweakenandpromoteregimechangeinRussia.
IntheeyesofRussianelites,Westernaggressionmustbemetwitharesponse.HackingintoDNC
computersandreleasinginformationontheDemocratsfundraisingpracticesissimplypayback
forWesternmediareportsaboutelitecorruptioninRussia.IthelpsboosttheRussiannarrative
thatmoneyandpoliticsgohandinhandeverywhereandthatRussiaisnodifferentfromthe
UnitedStatesorotherWesterncountrieswhosegovernmentsarecriticalofRussia.
Gettingcaughtred-handedlikelywontevenhurtPutinsstandingathome.TheRussianpublicis
longusedtothewarofkompromatsdishingdirtonpoliticalopponentsorbusinesscompetitors
whichhasbecomeastapleofpost-SovietRussianpoliticsandbusiness.Russianbusiness
tycoonsandtheKremlinpioneeredandfine-tunedthisformofcombatinthe1990susingmedia
outletstheyownedorcontrolled.CriticismfromtheWestdoesntmeanmuchinRussiathese
daysPutinspopularapprovalratingshotuptonear90percentafterheannexedCrimea.
Andsothisisbusinessasusual.Russiaisoutgunneditsdefensespendingisafractionofthatof
theUnitedStates.TheRussianeconomy,too,isfarsmallerthantheUnitedStates.TheKremlin
willnottrytomatchtheUnitedStatesgunforgunandtankfortank.Butitwillexploitwhat
advantagesithas.
Itwillusemilitaryforcecarefullywherethecorrelationofforcesfavorsitorwhereitsmilitary
plannerscanassuretheirleadersthatmilitaryactionwillnotleadtodisaster.Ukraineisthecasein
whichtheKremlinhadacompellinginterest,clearmilitarysuperiority,andanequallyclear
assurancethattheUnitedStateswouldnotintervene.
SyriawasanothercasewhereRussianmilitaryactionwasnecessarytoprotectRussianinterests
andwasassociatedwithfewrisks.ItwasneededtosupportthefalteringBasharal-Assadregime
andentailedrelativelysmallrisksbecausetheObamaadministrationhadmadeclearitsreluctance
tointervenemilitarilyinSyria.
Butwheretheuseofmilitaryforcecarrieswithitsignificantrisksthatarenotjustifiedby
compellinginterests,otherinstrumentsfromtheRussiantoolkitareandwillcontinuetobeused.
Forexample,anoutrightmilitaryattackagainsttheBalticstateswouldberiskyforRussia.It
wouldcarrywithitthethreatofadevastatingNATOretaliationandnuclearannihilation.
Therefore,theBalticswillbesubjectedtoasteadybarrageofinformationoperations,
disinformation,cyberattacks,airspaceviolations,andpokingandproddingtorattlethecountries
nervesandunderminetheirconfidenceinNATO.
Germanywillbesubjectedtodisinformation,spying,andmeddlinginitsdomesticpolitics.
Francesright-wingNationalFrontwillbethetargetofRussianattemptstogaininfluencein
Frenchpolitics.AndtheU.S.governmentanditspartiescancountontheircomputersbeingthe
focusofspecialattentionbyRussianhackers,bothfromintelligenceservicesandthosekeptat
armslengthtopretendtheyarenotpartoftheRussianstate.
EventsofthepastfewyearsfromtheannexationofCrimeatotheDNChackarenotan
aberrationrather,theyarepartofthesamechain.Theadversarial,hostilerelationshipwith
Russiaisheretostay.Putinisheretostay,too,sobettingonoutlastinghimwouldbeunwise.He
appearsverylikelytorunandbere-electedin2018,whichmeanshewillbeintheKremlinuntil
2024throughthenextU.S.presidentialtermandtheoneafterthat.
Someoftheneededstepsarealreadybeingtakenmilitarypreparednessmovesthatwere
proposedandadoptedatNATOsWalesandWarsawsummitsarenecessaryandwillprobablybe
followedbymoremeasurestoboostNATOsconventionalandnucleardefenseanddeterrent
capabilities.Buttanksandgunsalonearenotenough.Moreneedstobedoneincyber,
intelligence,informationoperation,andotherformsofhybridwarfare,aswellasdeterrence,
alongwithresilienceanddefensemeasuresagainstittomeetRussiaschallenge.Morealsois
neededtobereadytoconductcounter-offensiveoperationswhentheneedarises.Andallofthis
hastobedonewhilealsolookingforwaystoavoidaccidentalescalationandmaintainsomelines
ofcommunicationswiththeKremlin.RecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussiapresentsis
thefirststeptowarddealingwithit.
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 08/02/201601:14:42PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

Genewrotethis?Wow,quiteachange,especiallyRecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussiapresentsisthe
firststeptowarddealingwithit.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,August02,20163:11PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-08-02/kremlins-advantage

TheKremlin'sAdvantage
ThehackoftheU.S.DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,nowwidelyattributedtoRussian
intelligence,hassetoffapoliticalearthquakeintheUnitedStates.Thebrazennessoftheattack,
thecrudeattempttointerveneinaU.S.presidentialelection,andtheequallybald-faceddenialin
thefaceofmountingevidenceofRussiangovernmentcomplicityhavepromptedahostof
questionsthatreallyamounttojustone:How?Althoughafullysatisfactoryanswermayneverbe
found,itisnottooearlytodrawsomeconclusionsfromtheepisodeconclusionsthatshould
informthegeneraldiscourseaboutRussia,aswellasaboutthechallengethatRussiawillpresent
tothenextU.S.administration,regardlessofwhoiselectedinNovember.
Thoseexperts(includingthiswriter),who,outofanabundanceofcaution,initiallygrappledwith
thenewsoftheDNCbreak-inbyinvokingtheinherentdifficultyofinvestigatingcybercrimes,
nowhavethegrowingbodyoffactandanalysispointingtoRussiasroleinthehack.Inkeeping
withNationalIntelligenceDirectorJamesClappersrecentremarksonthissubject,the
assumptionshouldbethatRussiawasbehindthebreak-in.Atthispoint,todenyitwouldsimply
bemisleadingthepublic.
WhydidtheRussiangovernmentdoit?Becauseitcould.Knowledgeispower.Havingtheinside
scooponanadversaryisasourceofleveragethatistoogoodtopassup.Andcollectingsuch
intelligenceiswhattheRussianintelligenceserviceshavealongrecordofdoingwithsomeskill
andsuccess.
AndwhydidthehackersreleasethedatastolenfromtheDNC?Didtheyreallyintendto
undermineDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClintonandtohelptheirpresumedfavorite,
theRepublicanDonaldTrump?Itwouldseemnaveordelusionaltoexpectthattheleakwould
affectthevoteinacountryofwellover300millioninacampaignwithsomanyresourcesbeing
expendedbysomanyinterests.AnyanalysisoftheRussiangovernmentsintentionsrequiresa
greatdealofspeculation.Butsomethingsareknown.
Russiangovernmentandstate-sponsoredagentshaveintervenedinothercountrieselectionsand
domesticpolitics.TheyhavedonesoinFrance,theNetherlands,Germany,andItaly,justto
namesomeU.S.allies.ForRussiasneighborsUkraine,theBalticstates,andMoldova
Moscowsheavyhandintheirdomesticpoliticsisaconstantworry.JustbecausetheUnited
Statesisbigandpowerfuldoesntmeanthatitsdomesticpoliticsisnecessarilyofflimitsto
Russianintelligence.Infact,theUnitedStatespositionintheworldastheonlytrulyglobal
powermakesitevenmoreofatargetforRussianintelligence.
Kremlinoperativesprobablyrememberthatthe2000U.S.presidentialelectionwasdetermined
byafewhangingchads.The2016electionmaywellbedecidedbyasmallnumberof
disgruntledsupportersofformerDemocraticcontenderBernieSanders,asthesesupportersmay
makethedecisiontostayhome,insteadofvotingforClinton.Inthatsense,thereleaseofstolen
DNCdocumentsmaybejustthethingtotipthescalesagainsther.
ThiswarrantsahardlookatwhetherTrumpisRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsfavored
choice.Therecordisremarkable:thepublicexchangeofpleasantriesbetweenTrumpandPutin
theRussianmoneyreportedlyinvestedinTrumpsprojectshisskeptical,transactionalapproach
toNATOhishintingatpossiblerecognitionofCrimeaasRussianterritoryandliftingofthe
sanctionsonRussiaandhismostrecentclaimthatPutinisnotgoingtogointoUkraine.Atthe
sametime,PutinisontherecordaccusingClintonoffomentingunrestinRussia.AndClintons
dislikeoftheRussianpresidentbeforetheDNChackwasequallywelldocumentedand
undoubtedlyhasgrownmoreintensesincethen.
Noneofthisshouldcomeasasurprise,justasnobodywassurprisedwhentheNorthKorean
governmenthackedintoSonyPicturescomputers.Theonlyshocktherewasthetechnical
expertisedemonstratedbytheparanoidhermitkingdom.AndRussianrulersarejustasparanoid
abouttheWesttheUnitedStates,inparticularanditsattemptstoencircleRussia,destabilizeit
athome,andmarginalizeitontheworldstage.
MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutRussianhybridwarfareatermthatcoversawiderangeof
activities,includingcovertoperations,theuseofirregularsandcriminalelements,cyber
operations,informationanddisinformationcampaigns,andsoon.Russiahaspracticedhybrid
warfarewithvaryingdegreesofsuccessinCrimea,ineasternUkraine,intheBalticstates,andin
Syria.
LessnotedisthatRussiansecurityservicesseeRussiaasbeingevenmoreavictimofhybrid
warfarethananaggressor.U.S.supportfordemocracyinandaroundRussiaisathreattothe
Kremlin.ThereleaseofthePanamaPapers,whichrevealedinformationaboutthehiddenwealth
andpresumedcorruptactivitiesoftherulingelite,hasbeenportrayedbytheKremlinasaneffort
inWashingtontodiscredititanddestabilizeRussia.Bythesametoken,theOlympicdoping
scandalisalsoseenasaWesternplotagainstRussia.U.S.-EUeconomicsanctionsagainstRussia
thatwereputinplaceinthewakeofRussiasinvasionofUkrainearedescribedasacoverforthe
realgoaltoweakenandpromoteregimechangeinRussia.
IntheeyesofRussianelites,Westernaggressionmustbemetwitharesponse.HackingintoDNC
computersandreleasinginformationontheDemocratsfundraisingpracticesissimplypayback
forWesternmediareportsaboutelitecorruptioninRussia.IthelpsboosttheRussiannarrative
thatmoneyandpoliticsgohandinhandeverywhereandthatRussiaisnodifferentfromthe
UnitedStatesorotherWesterncountrieswhosegovernmentsarecriticalofRussia.
Gettingcaughtred-handedlikelywontevenhurtPutinsstandingathome.TheRussianpublicis
longusedtothewarofkompromatsdishingdirtonpoliticalopponentsorbusinesscompetitors
whichhasbecomeastapleofpost-SovietRussianpoliticsandbusiness.Russianbusiness
tycoonsandtheKremlinpioneeredandfine-tunedthisformofcombatinthe1990susingmedia
outletstheyownedorcontrolled.CriticismfromtheWestdoesntmeanmuchinRussiathese
daysPutinspopularapprovalratingshotuptonear90percentafterheannexedCrimea.
Andsothisisbusinessasusual.Russiaisoutgunneditsdefensespendingisafractionofthatof
theUnitedStates.TheRussianeconomy,too,isfarsmallerthantheUnitedStates.TheKremlin
willnottrytomatchtheUnitedStatesgunforgunandtankfortank.Butitwillexploitwhat
advantagesithas.
Itwillusemilitaryforcecarefullywherethecorrelationofforcesfavorsitorwhereitsmilitary
plannerscanassuretheirleadersthatmilitaryactionwillnotleadtodisaster.Ukraineisthecasein
whichtheKremlinhadacompellinginterest,clearmilitarysuperiority,andanequallyclear
assurancethattheUnitedStateswouldnotintervene.
SyriawasanothercasewhereRussianmilitaryactionwasnecessarytoprotectRussianinterests
andwasassociatedwithfewrisks.ItwasneededtosupportthefalteringBasharal-Assadregime
andentailedrelativelysmallrisksbecausetheObamaadministrationhadmadeclearitsreluctance
tointervenemilitarilyinSyria.
Butwheretheuseofmilitaryforcecarrieswithitsignificantrisksthatarenotjustifiedby
compellinginterests,otherinstrumentsfromtheRussiantoolkitareandwillcontinuetobeused.
Forexample,anoutrightmilitaryattackagainsttheBalticstateswouldberiskyforRussia.It
wouldcarrywithitthethreatofadevastatingNATOretaliationandnuclearannihilation.
Therefore,theBalticswillbesubjectedtoasteadybarrageofinformationoperations,
disinformation,cyberattacks,airspaceviolations,andpokingandproddingtorattlethecountries
nervesandunderminetheirconfidenceinNATO.
Germanywillbesubjectedtodisinformation,spying,andmeddlinginitsdomesticpolitics.
Francesright-wingNationalFrontwillbethetargetofRussianattemptstogaininfluencein
Frenchpolitics.AndtheU.S.governmentanditspartiescancountontheircomputersbeingthe
focusofspecialattentionbyRussianhackers,bothfromintelligenceservicesandthosekeptat
armslengthtopretendtheyarenotpartoftheRussianstate.
EventsofthepastfewyearsfromtheannexationofCrimeatotheDNChackarenotan
aberrationrather,theyarepartofthesamechain.Theadversarial,hostilerelationshipwith
Russiaisheretostay.Putinisheretostay,too,sobettingonoutlastinghimwouldbeunwise.He
appearsverylikelytorunandbere-electedin2018,whichmeanshewillbeintheKremlinuntil
2024throughthenextU.S.presidentialtermandtheoneafterthat.
Someoftheneededstepsarealreadybeingtakenmilitarypreparednessmovesthatwere
proposedandadoptedatNATOsWalesandWarsawsummitsarenecessaryandwillprobablybe
followedbymoremeasurestoboostNATOsconventionalandnucleardefenseanddeterrent
capabilities.Buttanksandgunsalonearenotenough.Moreneedstobedoneincyber,
intelligence,informationoperation,andotherformsofhybridwarfare,aswellasdeterrence,
alongwithresilienceanddefensemeasuresagainstittomeetRussiaschallenge.Morealsois
neededtobereadytoconductcounter-offensiveoperationswhentheneedarises.Andallofthis
hastobedonewhilealsolookingforwaystoavoidaccidentalescalationandmaintainsomelines
ofcommunicationswiththeKremlin.RecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussiapresentsis
thefirststeptowarddealingwithit.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/02/201612:11:27PM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
BCc: OttoRC@state.gov
Subject: TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-08-02/kremlins-advantage

TheKremlin'sAdvantage
ThehackoftheU.S.DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,nowwidelyattributedtoRussian
intelligence,hassetoffapoliticalearthquakeintheUnitedStates.Thebrazennessoftheattack,
thecrudeattempttointerveneinaU.S.presidentialelection,andtheequallybald-faceddenialin
thefaceofmountingevidenceofRussiangovernmentcomplicityhavepromptedahostof
questionsthatreallyamounttojustone:How?Althoughafullysatisfactoryanswermayneverbe
found,itisnottooearlytodrawsomeconclusionsfromtheepisodeconclusionsthatshould
informthegeneraldiscourseaboutRussia,aswellasaboutthechallengethatRussiawillpresent
tothenextU.S.administration,regardlessofwhoiselectedinNovember.

Thoseexperts(includingthiswriter),who,outofanabundanceofcaution,initiallygrappledwith
thenewsoftheDNCbreak-inbyinvokingtheinherentdifficultyofinvestigatingcybercrimes,
nowhavethegrowingbodyoffactandanalysispointingtoRussiasroleinthehack.Inkeeping
withNationalIntelligenceDirectorJamesClappersrecentremarksonthissubject,the
assumptionshouldbethatRussiawasbehindthebreak-in.Atthispoint,todenyitwouldsimply
bemisleadingthepublic.

WhydidtheRussiangovernmentdoit?Becauseitcould.Knowledgeispower.Havingtheinside
scooponanadversaryisasourceofleveragethatistoogoodtopassup.Andcollectingsuch
intelligenceiswhattheRussianintelligenceserviceshavealongrecordofdoingwithsomeskill
andsuccess.

AndwhydidthehackersreleasethedatastolenfromtheDNC?Didtheyreallyintendto
undermineDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClintonandtohelptheirpresumedfavorite,
theRepublicanDonaldTrump?Itwouldseemnaveordelusionaltoexpectthattheleakwould
affectthevoteinacountryofwellover300millioninacampaignwithsomanyresourcesbeing
expendedbysomanyinterests.AnyanalysisoftheRussiangovernmentsintentionsrequiresa
greatdealofspeculation.Butsomethingsareknown.

Russiangovernmentandstate-sponsoredagentshaveintervenedinothercountrieselectionsand
domesticpolitics.TheyhavedonesoinFrance,theNetherlands,Germany,andItaly,justto
namesomeU.S.allies.ForRussiasneighborsUkraine,theBalticstates,andMoldova
Moscowsheavyhandintheirdomesticpoliticsisaconstantworry.JustbecausetheUnited
Statesisbigandpowerfuldoesntmeanthatitsdomesticpoliticsisnecessarilyofflimitsto
Russianintelligence.Infact,theUnitedStatespositionintheworldastheonlytrulyglobal
powermakesitevenmoreofatargetforRussianintelligence.

Kremlinoperativesprobablyrememberthatthe2000U.S.presidentialelectionwasdetermined
byafewhangingchads.The2016electionmaywellbedecidedbyasmallnumberof
disgruntledsupportersofformerDemocraticcontenderBernieSanders,asthesesupportersmay
makethedecisiontostayhome,insteadofvotingforClinton.Inthatsense,thereleaseofstolen
DNCdocumentsmaybejustthethingtotipthescalesagainsther.
ThiswarrantsahardlookatwhetherTrumpisRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsfavored
choice.Therecordisremarkable:thepublicexchangeofpleasantriesbetweenTrumpandPutin
theRussianmoneyreportedlyinvestedinTrumpsprojectshisskeptical,transactionalapproach
toNATOhishintingatpossiblerecognitionofCrimeaasRussianterritoryandliftingofthe
sanctionsonRussiaandhismostrecentclaimthatPutinisnotgoingtogointoUkraine.Atthe
sametime,PutinisontherecordaccusingClintonoffomentingunrestinRussia.AndClintons
dislikeoftheRussianpresidentbeforetheDNChackwasequallywelldocumentedand
undoubtedlyhasgrownmoreintensesincethen.

Noneofthisshouldcomeasasurprise,justasnobodywassurprisedwhentheNorthKorean
governmenthackedintoSonyPicturescomputers.Theonlyshocktherewasthetechnical
expertisedemonstratedbytheparanoidhermitkingdom.AndRussianrulersarejustasparanoid
abouttheWesttheUnitedStates,inparticularanditsattemptstoencircleRussia,destabilizeit
athome,andmarginalizeitontheworldstage.

MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutRussianhybridwarfareatermthatcoversawiderangeof
activities,includingcovertoperations,theuseofirregularsandcriminalelements,cyber
operations,informationanddisinformationcampaigns,andsoon.Russiahaspracticedhybrid
warfarewithvaryingdegreesofsuccessinCrimea,ineasternUkraine,intheBalticstates,andin
Syria.

LessnotedisthatRussiansecurityservicesseeRussiaasbeingevenmoreavictimofhybrid
warfarethananaggressor.U.S.supportfordemocracyinandaroundRussiaisathreattothe
Kremlin.ThereleaseofthePanamaPapers,whichrevealedinformationaboutthehiddenwealth
andpresumedcorruptactivitiesoftherulingelite,hasbeenportrayedbytheKremlinasaneffort
inWashingtontodiscredititanddestabilizeRussia.Bythesametoken,theOlympicdoping
scandalisalsoseenasaWesternplotagainstRussia.U.S.-EUeconomicsanctionsagainstRussia
thatwereputinplaceinthewakeofRussiasinvasionofUkrainearedescribedasacoverforthe
realgoaltoweakenandpromoteregimechangeinRussia.

IntheeyesofRussianelites,Westernaggressionmustbemetwitharesponse.HackingintoDNC
computersandreleasinginformationontheDemocratsfundraisingpracticesissimplypayback
forWesternmediareportsaboutelitecorruptioninRussia.IthelpsboosttheRussiannarrative
thatmoneyandpoliticsgohandinhandeverywhereandthatRussiaisnodifferentfromthe
UnitedStatesorotherWesterncountrieswhosegovernmentsarecriticalofRussia.

Gettingcaughtred-handedlikelywontevenhurtPutinsstandingathome.TheRussianpublicis
longusedtothewarofkompromatsdishingdirtonpoliticalopponentsorbusinesscompetitors
whichhasbecomeastapleofpost-SovietRussianpoliticsandbusiness.Russianbusiness
tycoonsandtheKremlinpioneeredandfine-tunedthisformofcombatinthe1990susingmedia
outletstheyownedorcontrolled.CriticismfromtheWestdoesntmeanmuchinRussiathese
daysPutinspopularapprovalratingshotuptonear90percentafterheannexedCrimea.

Andsothisisbusinessasusual.Russiaisoutgunneditsdefensespendingisafractionofthatof
theUnitedStates.TheRussianeconomy,too,isfarsmallerthantheUnitedStates.TheKremlin
willnottrytomatchtheUnitedStatesgunforgunandtankfortank.Butitwillexploitwhat
advantagesithas.

Itwillusemilitaryforcecarefullywherethecorrelationofforcesfavorsitorwhereitsmilitary
plannerscanassuretheirleadersthatmilitaryactionwillnotleadtodisaster.Ukraineisthecasein
whichtheKremlinhadacompellinginterest,clearmilitarysuperiority,andanequallyclear
assurancethattheUnitedStateswouldnotintervene.

SyriawasanothercasewhereRussianmilitaryactionwasnecessarytoprotectRussianinterests
andwasassociatedwithfewrisks.ItwasneededtosupportthefalteringBasharal-Assadregime
andentailedrelativelysmallrisksbecausetheObamaadministrationhadmadeclearitsreluctance
tointervenemilitarilyinSyria.

Butwheretheuseofmilitaryforcecarrieswithitsignificantrisksthatarenotjustifiedby
compellinginterests,otherinstrumentsfromtheRussiantoolkitareandwillcontinuetobeused.
Forexample,anoutrightmilitaryattackagainsttheBalticstateswouldberiskyforRussia.It
wouldcarrywithitthethreatofadevastatingNATOretaliationandnuclearannihilation.
Therefore,theBalticswillbesubjectedtoasteadybarrageofinformationoperations,
disinformation,cyberattacks,airspaceviolations,andpokingandproddingtorattlethecountries
nervesandunderminetheirconfidenceinNATO.

Germanywillbesubjectedtodisinformation,spying,andmeddlinginitsdomesticpolitics.
Francesright-wingNationalFrontwillbethetargetofRussianattemptstogaininfluencein
Frenchpolitics.AndtheU.S.governmentanditspartiescancountontheircomputersbeingthe
focusofspecialattentionbyRussianhackers,bothfromintelligenceservicesandthosekeptat
armslengthtopretendtheyarenotpartoftheRussianstate.

EventsofthepastfewyearsfromtheannexationofCrimeatotheDNChackarenotan
aberrationrather,theyarepartofthesamechain.Theadversarial,hostilerelationshipwith
Russiaisheretostay.Putinisheretostay,too,sobettingonoutlastinghimwouldbeunwise.He
appearsverylikelytorunandbere-electedin2018,whichmeanshewillbeintheKremlinuntil
2024throughthenextU.S.presidentialtermandtheoneafterthat.

Someoftheneededstepsarealreadybeingtakenmilitarypreparednessmovesthatwere
proposedandadoptedatNATOsWalesandWarsawsummitsarenecessaryandwillprobablybe
followedbymoremeasurestoboostNATOsconventionalandnucleardefenseanddeterrent
capabilities.Buttanksandgunsalonearenotenough.Moreneedstobedoneincyber,
intelligence,informationoperation,andotherformsofhybridwarfare,aswellasdeterrence,
alongwithresilienceanddefensemeasuresagainstittomeetRussiaschallenge.Morealsois
neededtobereadytoconductcounter-offensiveoperationswhentheneedarises.Andallofthis
hastobedonewhilealsolookingforwaystoavoidaccidentalescalationandmaintainsomelines
ofcommunicationswiththeKremlin.RecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussiapresentsis
thefirststeptowarddealingwithit.
PutinIsCullingHisInnerCircle.docx

Putin Is Culling His Inner Circle


http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-08-03/putin-is-culling-his-inner-circle

Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg View columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian
business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru.

Aug 3, 2016 1:12 PM EDT


By
Leonid Bershidsky

In recent weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is known for his loyalty to long-
time associates, has left some of his friends vulnerable to attack. This is a new stage of
Putin's rule: He now can only trust his security apparatus -- and not even all of it.

In December, the owner of a posh Moscow cafe had an argument about fees with a
designer. Both women had influential friends, and they came to the cafe for a discussion:
Emissaries of Shakro the Young, a mob kingpin, on the designer's side, and retired
security officers spoke for the cafe owner. The dispute got ugly, and a shootout ensued.
Two of Shakro's representatives were arrested, and he apparently tried to get them freed.
Investigators from the FSB secret police claim they traced these efforts to General Denis
Nikandrov, deputy head of the Moscow branch of the Investigative Committee -- the
Russian equivalent of the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Nikandrov and two more top Investigative Committee officials were arrested last month,
accused of graft by the FSB. This is a powerful blow to the committee's politically
ambitious head, Alexander Bastrykin, who went to law school with Putin and was
considered one of his most reliable allies.

Last week, a separate FSB investigation resulted in the search at the house of Andrei
Belyaninov, the head of the customs service. A mountain of cash was found, suggesting
the career bureaucrat may not have been a paragon of virtue. Belyaninov, a former KGB
officer, served in East Germany at the same time as Putin. The customs chief has been
PutinIsCullingHisInnerCircle.docx

trying to resign for years, but Putin reportedly asked him to stay on. After the search,
Putin dismissed him.

Throughout Putin's rule, his friends have been spared these kinds of public scandals.
Even the resignation of a long-time associate -- such as the fall from grace last year of
Vladimir Yakunin, who ran the railroad monopoly -- was considered a big deal. Now,
Putin appears reluctant to stop attacks against two important figures -- and these attacks
are coming from the FSB, a part of the security apparatus that is run by the Putin loyalist
Alexander Bortnikov, another of the president's former KGB colleagues.

The FSB has been undergoing a wave of mid-level personnel changes. It seems to be
making a play for dominance among Russia's ever-competitive security services,
breaking its earlier alliance with the Investigative Committee in a struggle against the
prosecutor general's office.

"The interspecies competition for an administrative rent that's shrinking because of the
economic recession has become tougher -- it's harder to cut up the shrinking cake," Pavel
Aptekar wrote in the daily Vedomosti.

It's probably more than just "interspecies competition" -- Putin is still at the center. He
appears to be behind the change in the security services. He recently replaced the
leadership of his two bodyguard services -- roughly the equivalent of the U.S. Secret
Service -- with younger men.

In a commentary for the Moscow Carnegie Center, the political scientist Tatyana
Stanovaya suggested that Putin's old friends should be seen as two distinct groups: Those
in government service or state companies and those in private business, using
government contracts to accumulate legitimate-looking personal wealth. The first group
includes people such as Bastrykin, Belyaninov, Yakunin and Igor Sechin, the chief
executive of Russia's state oil company, Rosneft; Sechin reportedly has fallen out of
favor with Putin after insistent demands for state assistance for his company. Billionaires
from the second group, such as the Rotenberg brothers, Gennady Timchenko and Yuri
Kovalchuk, also serve the country in their own way: They can be counted on to co-fund
and run projects Putin considers essential, such as the construction of a bridge to
PutinIsCullingHisInnerCircle.docx

Crimea (Arkady Rotenberg's project) or the consolidation of pro-Putin media


(Kovalchuk's purview).

Stanovaya wrote:

The annexation of Crimea has ensured Putin's place in history and gave rise to new
geopolitical thinking and thus a new pyramid of priorities; limited resources are making
the constant pressure from 'friends,' with their constant requests for help and support,
increasingly unpleasant. As a result, the priorities of many of the president's allies have
become severely misaligned with his own.

The billionaires aren't asking for anything, so they are safe. The bureaucrats are, so they
are threatened. Unlike at the beginning of his 15-year reign, when friends were put in
charge of vital parts of the state, Putin doesn't fully trust his allies. He has greater
confidence in security professionals who have made successful careers during his
presidency. That may explain some of the appointments he made after Belyaninov's fall.

The new customs chief, Vladimir Bulavin, is a former deputy chief of the FSB. Putin has
also appointed two of his former bodyguards as regional governors: Yevgeny Zinichev
now heads Russia's enclave in Europe, the Kaliningrad region, and Dmitri Mironov, who
runs the Yaroslavl region on the Volga. Zinichev has already marked the beginning of his
rule in the region with a press conference that lasted exactly 49 seconds.

Putin has always liked to appoint security professionals to every kind of government job:
He trusts people with a background similar to his own. The new crop of appointments,
however, is not about his Soviet-era friendships and alliances: It's strictly about service in
a system that perceives itself as a besieged fortress. It's a security state increasingly run
by state security.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and
its owners.

To contact the author of this story:


Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.net
PutinIsCullingHisInnerCircle.docx

To contact the editor responsible for this story:


Max Berley at mberley@bloomberg.net
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/02/201612:11:27PM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
BCc: OttoRC@state.gov
Subject: TheKremlin'sAdvantage|ForeignAffairs(rumeronthehack)

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-08-02/kremlins-advantage

TheKremlin'sAdvantage
ThehackoftheU.S.DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,nowwidelyattributedtoRussian
intelligence,hassetoffapoliticalearthquakeintheUnitedStates.Thebrazennessoftheattack,
thecrudeattempttointerveneinaU.S.presidentialelection,andtheequallybald-faceddenialin
thefaceofmountingevidenceofRussiangovernmentcomplicityhavepromptedahostof
questionsthatreallyamounttojustone:How?Althoughafullysatisfactoryanswermayneverbe
found,itisnottooearlytodrawsomeconclusionsfromtheepisodeconclusionsthatshould
informthegeneraldiscourseaboutRussia,aswellasaboutthechallengethatRussiawillpresent
tothenextU.S.administration,regardlessofwhoiselectedinNovember.

Thoseexperts(includingthiswriter),who,outofanabundanceofcaution,initiallygrappledwith
thenewsoftheDNCbreak-inbyinvokingtheinherentdifficultyofinvestigatingcybercrimes,
nowhavethegrowingbodyoffactandanalysispointingtoRussiasroleinthehack.Inkeeping
withNationalIntelligenceDirectorJamesClappersrecentremarksonthissubject,the
assumptionshouldbethatRussiawasbehindthebreak-in.Atthispoint,todenyitwouldsimply
bemisleadingthepublic.

WhydidtheRussiangovernmentdoit?Becauseitcould.Knowledgeispower.Havingtheinside
scooponanadversaryisasourceofleveragethatistoogoodtopassup.Andcollectingsuch
intelligenceiswhattheRussianintelligenceserviceshavealongrecordofdoingwithsomeskill
andsuccess.

AndwhydidthehackersreleasethedatastolenfromtheDNC?Didtheyreallyintendto
undermineDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClintonandtohelptheirpresumedfavorite,
theRepublicanDonaldTrump?Itwouldseemnaveordelusionaltoexpectthattheleakwould
affectthevoteinacountryofwellover300millioninacampaignwithsomanyresourcesbeing
expendedbysomanyinterests.AnyanalysisoftheRussiangovernmentsintentionsrequiresa
greatdealofspeculation.Butsomethingsareknown.

Russiangovernmentandstate-sponsoredagentshaveintervenedinothercountrieselectionsand
domesticpolitics.TheyhavedonesoinFrance,theNetherlands,Germany,andItaly,justto
namesomeU.S.allies.ForRussiasneighborsUkraine,theBalticstates,andMoldova
Moscowsheavyhandintheirdomesticpoliticsisaconstantworry.JustbecausetheUnited
Statesisbigandpowerfuldoesntmeanthatitsdomesticpoliticsisnecessarilyofflimitsto
Russianintelligence.Infact,theUnitedStatespositionintheworldastheonlytrulyglobal
powermakesitevenmoreofatargetforRussianintelligence.

Kremlinoperativesprobablyrememberthatthe2000U.S.presidentialelectionwasdetermined
byafewhangingchads.The2016electionmaywellbedecidedbyasmallnumberof
disgruntledsupportersofformerDemocraticcontenderBernieSanders,asthesesupportersmay
makethedecisiontostayhome,insteadofvotingforClinton.Inthatsense,thereleaseofstolen
DNCdocumentsmaybejustthethingtotipthescalesagainsther.
ThiswarrantsahardlookatwhetherTrumpisRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsfavored
choice.Therecordisremarkable:thepublicexchangeofpleasantriesbetweenTrumpandPutin
theRussianmoneyreportedlyinvestedinTrumpsprojectshisskeptical,transactionalapproach
toNATOhishintingatpossiblerecognitionofCrimeaasRussianterritoryandliftingofthe
sanctionsonRussiaandhismostrecentclaimthatPutinisnotgoingtogointoUkraine.Atthe
sametime,PutinisontherecordaccusingClintonoffomentingunrestinRussia.AndClintons
dislikeoftheRussianpresidentbeforetheDNChackwasequallywelldocumentedand
undoubtedlyhasgrownmoreintensesincethen.

Noneofthisshouldcomeasasurprise,justasnobodywassurprisedwhentheNorthKorean
governmenthackedintoSonyPicturescomputers.Theonlyshocktherewasthetechnical
expertisedemonstratedbytheparanoidhermitkingdom.AndRussianrulersarejustasparanoid
abouttheWesttheUnitedStates,inparticularanditsattemptstoencircleRussia,destabilizeit
athome,andmarginalizeitontheworldstage.

MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutRussianhybridwarfareatermthatcoversawiderangeof
activities,includingcovertoperations,theuseofirregularsandcriminalelements,cyber
operations,informationanddisinformationcampaigns,andsoon.Russiahaspracticedhybrid
warfarewithvaryingdegreesofsuccessinCrimea,ineasternUkraine,intheBalticstates,andin
Syria.

LessnotedisthatRussiansecurityservicesseeRussiaasbeingevenmoreavictimofhybrid
warfarethananaggressor.U.S.supportfordemocracyinandaroundRussiaisathreattothe
Kremlin.ThereleaseofthePanamaPapers,whichrevealedinformationaboutthehiddenwealth
andpresumedcorruptactivitiesoftherulingelite,hasbeenportrayedbytheKremlinasaneffort
inWashingtontodiscredititanddestabilizeRussia.Bythesametoken,theOlympicdoping
scandalisalsoseenasaWesternplotagainstRussia.U.S.-EUeconomicsanctionsagainstRussia
thatwereputinplaceinthewakeofRussiasinvasionofUkrainearedescribedasacoverforthe
realgoaltoweakenandpromoteregimechangeinRussia.

IntheeyesofRussianelites,Westernaggressionmustbemetwitharesponse.HackingintoDNC
computersandreleasinginformationontheDemocratsfundraisingpracticesissimplypayback
forWesternmediareportsaboutelitecorruptioninRussia.IthelpsboosttheRussiannarrative
thatmoneyandpoliticsgohandinhandeverywhereandthatRussiaisnodifferentfromthe
UnitedStatesorotherWesterncountrieswhosegovernmentsarecriticalofRussia.

Gettingcaughtred-handedlikelywontevenhurtPutinsstandingathome.TheRussianpublicis
longusedtothewarofkompromatsdishingdirtonpoliticalopponentsorbusinesscompetitors
whichhasbecomeastapleofpost-SovietRussianpoliticsandbusiness.Russianbusiness
tycoonsandtheKremlinpioneeredandfine-tunedthisformofcombatinthe1990susingmedia
outletstheyownedorcontrolled.CriticismfromtheWestdoesntmeanmuchinRussiathese
daysPutinspopularapprovalratingshotuptonear90percentafterheannexedCrimea.

Andsothisisbusinessasusual.Russiaisoutgunneditsdefensespendingisafractionofthatof
theUnitedStates.TheRussianeconomy,too,isfarsmallerthantheUnitedStates.TheKremlin
willnottrytomatchtheUnitedStatesgunforgunandtankfortank.Butitwillexploitwhat
advantagesithas.

Itwillusemilitaryforcecarefullywherethecorrelationofforcesfavorsitorwhereitsmilitary
plannerscanassuretheirleadersthatmilitaryactionwillnotleadtodisaster.Ukraineisthecasein
whichtheKremlinhadacompellinginterest,clearmilitarysuperiority,andanequallyclear
assurancethattheUnitedStateswouldnotintervene.

SyriawasanothercasewhereRussianmilitaryactionwasnecessarytoprotectRussianinterests
andwasassociatedwithfewrisks.ItwasneededtosupportthefalteringBasharal-Assadregime
andentailedrelativelysmallrisksbecausetheObamaadministrationhadmadeclearitsreluctance
tointervenemilitarilyinSyria.

Butwheretheuseofmilitaryforcecarrieswithitsignificantrisksthatarenotjustifiedby
compellinginterests,otherinstrumentsfromtheRussiantoolkitareandwillcontinuetobeused.
Forexample,anoutrightmilitaryattackagainsttheBalticstateswouldberiskyforRussia.It
wouldcarrywithitthethreatofadevastatingNATOretaliationandnuclearannihilation.
Therefore,theBalticswillbesubjectedtoasteadybarrageofinformationoperations,
disinformation,cyberattacks,airspaceviolations,andpokingandproddingtorattlethecountries
nervesandunderminetheirconfidenceinNATO.

Germanywillbesubjectedtodisinformation,spying,andmeddlinginitsdomesticpolitics.
Francesright-wingNationalFrontwillbethetargetofRussianattemptstogaininfluencein
Frenchpolitics.AndtheU.S.governmentanditspartiescancountontheircomputersbeingthe
focusofspecialattentionbyRussianhackers,bothfromintelligenceservicesandthosekeptat
armslengthtopretendtheyarenotpartoftheRussianstate.

EventsofthepastfewyearsfromtheannexationofCrimeatotheDNChackarenotan
aberrationrather,theyarepartofthesamechain.Theadversarial,hostilerelationshipwith
Russiaisheretostay.Putinisheretostay,too,sobettingonoutlastinghimwouldbeunwise.He
appearsverylikelytorunandbere-electedin2018,whichmeanshewillbeintheKremlinuntil
2024throughthenextU.S.presidentialtermandtheoneafterthat.

Someoftheneededstepsarealreadybeingtakenmilitarypreparednessmovesthatwere
proposedandadoptedatNATOsWalesandWarsawsummitsarenecessaryandwillprobablybe
followedbymoremeasurestoboostNATOsconventionalandnucleardefenseanddeterrent
capabilities.Buttanksandgunsalonearenotenough.Moreneedstobedoneincyber,
intelligence,informationoperation,andotherformsofhybridwarfare,aswellasdeterrence,
alongwithresilienceanddefensemeasuresagainstittomeetRussiaschallenge.Morealsois
neededtobereadytoconductcounter-offensiveoperationswhentheneedarises.Andallofthis
hastobedonewhilealsolookingforwaystoavoidaccidentalescalationandmaintainsomelines
ofcommunicationswiththeKremlin.RecognizingthenatureofthethreatthatRussiapresentsis
thefirststeptowarddealingwithit.
ForeignAidAssetsTransferFromTobyhannato.docx

Foreign Aid Assets Transfer From Tobyhanna to


Ukraine
http://www.dodwire.com/media/story/a0061000008IPD9AAO

The Defense Logistics Agency at the Tobyhanna Army Depot has shipped 31
pieces of stock U.S. Army equipment such as counter-fire radars to Ukraine as part
of U.S. military aid to the country, DVIDS reported Wednesday. The report said
the delivery includes four AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder Radar Systems and 10 AN/TPQ-
49 Lightweight Counter Mortar Radars. DLA and Tobyhanna personnel will
remain temporarily in Ukraine to provide technical support.

Tags: Ukraine, Defense Logistics Agency, DLA, Tobyhanna Army Depot, U.S. Army, counter-fire radar,
military aid, AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder Radar System, AN/TPQ-49 Lightweight Counter Mortar Radar

Foreign aid assets transfer from Tobyhanna to


Ukraine
https://www.dvidshub.net/news/205933/foreign -aid-assets-transfer-tobyhanna-

ukraine
ForeignAidAssetsTransferFromTobyhannato.docx

Photo By Jacqueline Boucher | Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko (left), members of the Ukranian
armed forces including Chief of the General Staff Viktor Muzhenko (second from right) and Geoffrey
Pyatt, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, were on hand for the arrival of the radars.

TOBYHANNA ARMY DEPOT, PA, UNITED STAT ES

08.03.2016

Story by Jacqueline Boucher

Tobyhanna Army Depot

TOBYHANNA ARMY DEPOT, Pa. Ukraine President Petro Poroshenko was on the tarmac to
watch the arrival of counter fire radars recently transferred from here to the Eastern European
country as part of the current foreign aid agreement with the United States.

Team Tobyhanna and Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) Distribution-Tobyhanna joined forces to test
and move 31 pieces of stock Army equipment to help the beleaguered country. Depot technicians
and engineers followed four AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder Radar Systems and 10 AN/TPQ-49 Lightweight
Counter Mortar Radars (LCMR) across the pond to repair and field the assets. Team members will
remain in country to provide technical support during an upcoming Ukrainian training exercise. Both
radars are used to back track incoming fire for fast and accurate counterfire.

DLA personnel were responsible for releasing the stock items to Tobyhanna for repair and testing,
and loading the assets onto nine semi-trucks headed to the airport.
ForeignAidAssetsTransferFromTobyhannato.docx

I was elated to see how smoothly the transfer went, said Bruce Apgar, EUCOM (European
Command) delivery team lead, U.S. Army Security Assistance Command, commending participants
for being at the top of their game. I enjoyed watching the Tobyhanna/DLA team in action.
Security aid from the U.S. is meant to help Ukraine boost its military strength through the reform of
their Armed Forces, National Guard and border control.

The Army sent two AN/TPQ-36 radars to Ukraine last year as part of the presidential drawdown,
according to officials in the Logistics Readiness Centers Security Assistance Management
Directorate (SAMD), which is part of U.S. Army Communications-Electronics Command.

The same officials said that Tobyhanna was easy to work with on this project.

Everyone there was cooperative, knowledgeable and weve developed a good working relationship
between CECOM, SAMD and Toby, said Michelle Evans, acting chief of SAMDs AFRICOM
(African Command), Canada, and EUCOM Division. The whole project went smoothly.

The four radars recently delivered are a follow up under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative,
which is a congressional appropriation for this year, according to Evans. Furthermore, the customer
offered to fund a sustainment package tasking Tobyhanna to perform quarterly visits and do
preventative and corrective maintenance on the radars, generators and vehicles, she said.
Personnel have total visibility and responsibility for Army radar and sustainment cases that fall within
the division.

The radars had been overhauled by depot personnel and placed in stock prior to being tagged for
foreign military sales, said Tim Higgins, chief of the Production Management Directorates Air
Defense and Counter Fire Systems Branch. Within 30 days of notification, 12 Humvees, eight
generators, four shelters and antenna groups, and 10 LCMRs were prepped and loaded onto an
aircraft bound for Ukraine, he added.

Everyone did an outstanding job, Higgins said. Communication was great at all levels of the
process and Team Tobyhanna was able to adapt the production schedule to make this happen
without impacting the mission.

Reports from the field indicate the long trip triggered minor repair work. Overall, the onsite
technicians report positive progress.

Live-fire tests will be conducted once all the systems are fully mission capable, according to an
electronics mechanic deployed to Ukraine. After the fielding, the team will remain on site during the
training in case any technical issues arise.

Host nation support has been great, he said. Theyve provided all the logistics we need to tackle
both missions, plus an interpreter. Our training and the support from the depot will allow us to
succeed even if something unexpected occurs. The counter fire radar specialist is assigned to the
ForeignAidAssetsTransferFromTobyhannato.docx

C4ISR Directorate.

Other depot employees traveling to Ukraine include two general equipment mechanics, who will
make sure the generators for the systems are fully functional.

These generators have been through some tough testing so I know they will meet the demand of
the systems, said one of the mechanics who works in the Mobile Electric Power and Environmental
Control Unit Branch.

Another team member and 11-year veteran of radar repair explained that the team has to replace
the fluids that were drained before the flight to get the generators back online. Then hell inspect the
Humvees and trailers for any damage, and do necessary repairs. The tactical vehicle specialist
works in the Tactical Vehicle Branch.

Once everything checks out, the assets will be turned over to Ukraines government, he said.

Ukraines military is learning from a multi-national training team that includes U.S. Army Soldiers,
Canadian Armed Forces and the Lithuanian Land Forces.

The Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine is the name for the training mission being conducted
by U.S. forces. There is a small contingent of Army forces in country on a rotating basis to field
equipment and train soldiers.

Tobyhanna Army Depot is a recognized leader in providing world-class logistics support for
command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance
systems across the Department of Defense. Tobyhanna's Corporate Philosophy, dedicated work
force and electronics expertise ensure the depot is the Joint C4ISR provider of choice for all
branches of the Armed Forces and industry partners.

Tobyhanna's unparalleled capabilities include full-spectrum logistics support for sustainment,


overhaul and repair, fabrication and manufacturing, engineering design and development, systems
integration, post production software support, technology insertion, modification, foreign military
sales and global field support to our Joint Warfighters.

About 3,200 personnel are employed at Tobyhanna, which is located in the Pocono Mountains of
northeastern Pennsylvania. Tobyhanna Army Depot is part of the U.S. Army Communications-
Electronics Command. Headquartered at Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, the commands
mission is to research, develop, acquire, field and sustain communications, command, control
computer, intelligence, electronic warfare and sensors capabilities for the Armed Forces.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/02/201612:10:55PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[VLAD-O-RAMADOOM&GLOOM..THESECONDSEASON][MK]BIGFINNFUNDQUESTIONSGLOBALSTABILITY
Subject: [PB]SYRIANCONFLICT:AreWMDsreappearing?[Call'theRedLine'forHelp].[PB]RiggedElections[Past&Present??][VRT]Is
SOSKerryTryinga'NewR...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,August02,201611:36AM
Subject:Fwd:[VLAD-O-RAMADOOM&GLOOM..THESECONDSEASON][MK]BIGFINNFUNDQUESTIONSGLOBALSTABILITY[PB]
SYRIANCONFLICT:AreWMDsreappearing?[Call'theRedLine'forHelp].[PB]RiggedElections[Past&Present??][VRT]IsSOS
KerryTryinga'NewR...

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at2:27PM
Subject:[VLAD-O-RAMADOOM&GLOOM..THESECONDSEASON][MK]BIGFINNFUNDQUESTIONS
GLOBALSTABILITY[PB]SYRIANCONFLICT:AreWMDsreappearing?[Call'theRedLine'forHelp].[PB]
RiggedElections[Past&Present??][VRT]IsSOSKerryTryinga'NewReset'?(OHBOY!!].FINALLY:WWIIIas
theThemeofChoiceforthisWeek[VladisSmiling.Hehasmadehispoint!]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at1:54PM
Subject:This$40BillionFinnishFundSaysRussiaIsBiggestWorry-Bloomberg
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

This$40BillionFinnishFundSaysRussiaIsBiggestWorry-Bloomberg

IsolationismReturning?

ThebiggestgeopoliticalchallengeisstillhereinEurope,andRussiaandtherelationbetweenthetwo,Ritakalliosaid.Add
Turkeytothemix,andtheproblemsstarttolookevenbigger,hesaid.

WiththeU.S.settoholditsmostcontentiouspresidentialelectionindecades,investorsfacetwoverydifferentworldsafter
Novemberwiththegeopoliticalstakeshigherthanusual,dependingontheoutcome.TrumphasimpliedNATOmemberswould
onlygetU.S.assistanceiftheypaidforthefavor,whilehehasflirtedwithPutinwithoutprovidingmuchinsightintohowhewould
shapeU.S.-Russianrelationsinpractice.

ATrumpwininNovemberwilltriggeruncertaintyinmarkets,Ritakalliosaid.Thelongertermconcernswouldbehowan
isolationistpolicywouldaffecttheglobaleconomy,hesaid.
Therewouldbequestionsaroundthegeopoliticalsituationgloballyandthatisproblematic,Ritakalliosaid.Anincreasein
nationalismandprotectionismwouldrequireacompletereviewoftheeconomicoutlookandhowinvestmentstrategiesare
affected,hesaid.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at1:23PM
Subject:Syrianconflict:Saraqeb'attackedwithchlorinegas'-BBCNews[ED:Callthe'RedLine'forHelp]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Gee,itmusthavebeenthoselittlemenfromMarsagain.Youknow,thesameonewhoshotdownMH17.SomeonecallOrson
Wellesandtellhimtostopitnow!

It'sreallysadthattheoncevenerableBBCisnowsopenetratedandcompromisedthatit'snotlikelyanythingcouldeverreachthe
thresholdneededforthemtosay,"TheRussiansdidit!"

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36951783

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at12:56PM
Subject:USelection:DonaldTrumpwarnsvotecouldbe'rigged'-BBCNews
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

WithPaulManafortatthehelm(atDTHQ),there'sabetterthanevenchancetheywillatleasttry.

Oneofthegreatlingeringfrustrationsofthe2010electioninUkraineisthepersistentfairytalethatYanukovychwonit"fairand
square".OtherthanManafort'snumbersandObama'sfirstoutofthegatetocongratulateYanukovychonhis"victory"(beating
evenPutintothepunch),thematterwasintentionallyneverfullyvetted.Therecertainlywereirregularities.Theelectionwasvery
closeandmassiveirregularities(likeoldstyleballotboxstuffing)werenotnecessary.Insomeareasjustminortweakingwould
havebeenenoughtoputYanukovychoverthetopandmanypeoplefeltthatisexactlywhathappened.Tymoshenko'speople
wereconvinceditwasriggedbutinafarmoresophisticatedwaythan,forexample,the04election.However,astheywere
preparingtheircase,ObamajumpedoutoftheboxtocongratulateYanukovychonwinning"fairandsquare"andsuddenlyitwas
allover.TymoshenkocouldarguewiththeCECbutnoonecouldarguewithPOTUS.Whateverthefacts,itwasover.

Thereasonbecameclearsometimelater,whenYanukovychturnedoverallofUkraine'snuclearmaterialtoRussiaandObama
declaredUkraineanuclearfreezone.ItwaspartofObama'sfantasyofPeaceonHisWatch,leavingbehindabetterandsafer
worldthanhefound.ItwashisWilsoniandream.Hejustdidn'tunderstand(ormaybedidn'tcare)thatitwasalreadypervertedby
theReSetvirus.HewastoofocusedonbuildinghisBraveNewBRICAWorld.Yanukovych(nodoubtcheeredonbyPutin)
happilyturnedoverthenuclearmaterialinexchangefortheUSnotlookingallthatcloselyattheelectionresults.Thus,Ukraine
wasstrippednotonlyofitsnuclearweaponsbutalsoitsnuclearpotential.Itallplayedouttoscript.Noonenoticedorseemedto
carethatitwasareallybadscript.ThethirdactwaswrittenbytheRussiansandtheendingwasreallybad,especiallyfor
Ukraine.

[EDPS:PointofInformation.PBdoesnotcriticizetheOB-ADlightlyhewasCACo-ChairofUkesforBO-JBin
'08and'12]
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36950083

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at1:28PM
Subject:JDisRight---KerryisTryinga'New'Reset(IsBObehinditaswell?)

READTEXT:DemocratsPUTINDilemma
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/democrats-putin-dilemma-226446

DonaldTrumpwasthebogeymanofthisweek'sDemocraticnationalconvention.Butplacingaclosesecondto
TrumpwasRussia'sPresident,VladimirPutin.Democratslinkedthetwobadguystogether,hammeringTrumpfor
hispastwordsofpraiseforPutinasa"strongleader"andhisclaimthattheU.S.would"getalonggreat"with
Russiaifheiselected.

HecoziesuptoPutin,saidPresidentBarackObama.VicePresidentJoeBidendenouncedTrumpfor
embracingdictatorslikeVladimirPutin.AndonThursdaynightHillaryClintonherselfsaidshewoulddefend
NATOalliesagainstanythreat,includingfromRussia.

Butjustthedaybefore,onTuesday,SecretaryofStateJohnKerrysatdownwithRussiasforeignminister,Sergei
Lavrov.OntheiragendawasaU.S.proposaltocooperatewithRussiainSyria,whichhepresentedinameeting
withPutinattheKremlinearlierthismonth.AndonThursday,aseniorObamaadministrationofficialremindeda
nationalsecurityconferencethatbetterrelationswithMoscow,somethingTrumphasbeencriticizedforsaying
wouldbeagreatthing,remainsacoregoalofU.S.foreignpolicy.

WedonotwanttobeadversarialwiththeRussians,saidElissaSlotkin,actingassistantsecretaryofdefensefor
internationalsecurityaffairs,inapanelattheAspenSecurityConference.Ithink,Ihope,thatthemessagethat
Russiaisreceivingnowisthatwewanttotalktoyou.WellsendJohnKerrytoMoscow.Weareopen,weare
readytotalktoyou.

Tobesure,ObamaofficialshavelowexpectationsabouttheprospectsforconstructivedealingswithPutin,who
haspursuedanaggressiveforeignpolicywhileclampingdownondissentathome.Theyarealsooutragedby
whattheybelievetobeaKremlin'shandinthecybertheftandreleaseofDemocraticNationalCommitteeemails.
(KerrysternlyraisedtheissuewithLavrovonTuesday,U.S.officialssaid.)AndSlotkinmadeclearthat
Washingtonsoffersofdialoguearepartofabalancethatincludesmilitarymuscle-flexingandstepslikerecent
U.S.reinforcementsofNATOseasternflank.Wehavetohaveatwindeter-and-dialoguemessage,Slotkinsaid.

2016
Trump goes it alone on Russia
ByKATIEGLUECK
ButsomeDemocraticnationalsecurityveteransfearthatapotentiallydangerouslevelofhostilitytoRussiahas
emergedinrecentweeks.TheysaythegrowingrivalrybetweenWashingtonandMoscow,stokedbycampaign
rhetoricaimedatdiscreditingTrump,maybetakingonalifeofitsown,makingglobalproblemshardertosolve
andincreasingtheriskofanaccidentalconflictpotentiallyevenanuclearone.

WeresleepwalkingintoanewColdWar,saidWilliamPerry,whoservedasSecretaryofDefenseunderBill
Clintonfrom1993to1996,aneraofrelativelywarmrelationsbetweentheU.S.andRussia.Thereshardlyany
debateaboutit,andthepublicdoesntunderstandthedanger.

Perrysaidheisparticularlyconcernedthatpoorcommunication,anarmsbuilduponbothsides,andjangled
nervesincreasethepossibilityofanaccidentalorunintentionalnuclearconfrontation.Incaseanyonethinksthats
anacademicconcern,Icantellyouthatsnotacademic,Perrysaid,recallinganightwhenwewasawokenat3
a.m.byanightdutyofficerandinformedthatradarwasshowinghundredsofRussianmissilesenroutetotheU.S.

Atthemoment,theObamaadministrationstopworryisnotnuclearwarbutendingtheSyriancivilwar,whichhas
leftmorethan400,000peopledead,fueledtheIslamicStateandalQaeda,andfloodedtheMiddleEastand
Europewithrefugees.WithObama'sapproval,KerryhasbeenworkingcloselywithLavrovthetwomenhave
spokendozensoftimesthisyeartostrikeanagreementthatwouldbeginlimitedmilitarycooperationbetween
WashingtonandMoscowinSyria.ManyU.S.officialsbelievetheSyrianconflictcanonlybesettledwithRussian
assistance.

Undertheagreement,theU.S.wouldprovidetheRussianswhoareaidingtheregimeofSyrianpresident
BasharAssadagainstanarmedoppositionthatincludestheIslamicStateandalQaeda,butalsomoremoderate
rebelswithintelligenceandtargetinginformationagainstIslamicradicals.Inreturn,theU.S.wouldexpect
MoscowtouseitsitsleverageoverAssadtohaltSyrianmilitarystrikesagainstcivilianareas.

ObamaofficialsinsistthatanycooperationwithRussiawouldnotbebasedontrust,butcontingentonverifiable
stepsbyMoscowandDamascus.Theirgoalistoalleviateciviliansufferingandadvanceapotentialpolitical
settlementtotheSyrianconflict.

Buttheproposalhasdrawnstronginternalopposition.Twoweeksagoananonymouscriticleakedthetextofthe
Kerry'splantotheWashingtonPost.OpponentssayitcouldfacilitateRussianstrikesonso-calledmoderate
SyrianrebelstrainedbytheCIA.TheyalsofearthatitwouldstrengthenAssad'sposition,therebyextendingthe
conflict.

Rep. Duckworth to Trump: I didn't serve my country 'so you could invite Russia to interfere with it'
ByDONOVANHARRELL
OneformerU.S.officialwhohasworkedonRussiaissuescalledthatleakadramaticdisplayofdissent:Theres
arift.Itsreallybad.

Moregenerally,skepticsofdialoguewithMoscowwhoaremostlyfoundatthePentagonandintelligence
agencies,butalsowithintheStateDepartmentwarnthatsimplytalkingtoPutinrewardsandmayeven
encouragehisbadbehavior.GivingtheRussianaseatattheinternationaltablefeedshiswishtore-establishhis
country,whoseeconomyissmallerthanSouthKorea's,asatopglobalpower,andgiveshimstatureathome.If
Putinthinkshewillbeinvitedtosolveproblemshehascaused,thefearisthathewillginupmoreofthem.

Hewantstobeseenastheleaderofagreatpower,coequalwiththeUnitedStates,saidNationalIntelligence
DirectorJamesClapper,alsospeakinginAspenonThursday.

AfterPutin's2014annexationofUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula,Obamathreatenedto"isolate"Russia,and
undercutits"statusintheworld."TheU.S.hasimposedeconomicsanctionsonRussia,andonseveralPutin
allies,overUkraine.

ButinrecentmonthsObamahasspokenfrequentlywithhisRussiancounterpart.Thetwomenmetthreetimeslast
fall,andspokemostrecentlyinaJuly6phonecall.KerryvisitedMoscowfivedayslaterhissecondtriptoRussia
thisyearandhisfourthinthepastyear.

Feedingtheconcernsofhard-linersinWashington,theKremlinseemstodelightinthesecontacts.AtaMay6
pressbriefing,RussianforeignministryspokeswomanMariaZakharovateasinglyrecitedanEnglish-language
poemaboutKerry'scontactswithMoscow,modifyingaworkbythe19thcenturyScottishpoetRobertBurnstitled
"MyHeart'sintheHighlands."

"HisheartisinMoscow,hisheartisnotthere.HisheartisinMoscow,chasingabear.ChasingnotGrizzlybut
Kremlinese.HisheartisinMoscowwhereverJohnis,"Zahharovasaid,concludingwithalaugh.

Whetherornotit'strueofKerry,thatversedoesnotapplytoU.S.intelligenceandcybersecurityofficials,whoare
doingbattlewithaggressiveRussiancyberespionageandhacking.ClappersaidtheU.S.isinaversionofwar
withMoscowinthoseareas.

SlotkinacknowledgedthemanytoughobstaclestodialoguewithRussia.Howdoyougetthebalanceright?Are
webeingtoocharitableandgivingthemtoomanyopportunitiestocomebacktothetable?Orareweproviding
suchahighlevelofdeterrencethatwerepotentiallyprovokingthem?Thatsthefundamentalquestion,Slotkin
said.

SomeEuropeanofficialshavealsowarnedabouttheriskofprovocation.AfteramajorNATOmilitaryexercisein
PolandlastmonththatsimulatedaconfrontationwithRussia,Germanysforeignministerexpressedhisunease.

Pence: Trumps Russia comment laced with sarcasm


ByMATTHEWNUSSBAUM
Whatweshouldn'tdonowisinflamethesituationfurtherthroughsabre-rattlingandwarmongering,saidthe
minister,Frank-WalterSteinmeier.Wearewell-advisedtonotcreatepretextstorenewanoldconfrontation,he
said,addingthatitwouldbefataltosearchonlyformilitarysolutionsandapolicyofdeterrence.

EvenObamasformerDefenseSecretary,ChuckHagel,hasissuedasimilarwarning.

"IfIweresecretaryofDefensetoday,I'dbecarefulwiththis,"HagelsaidataMay11mediaroundtablehostedby
theAtlanticCouncil."WecanfindourselvesveryquicklyinanotherColdWarbuilduphere,andthatreallymakes
nosenseforeitherside."

USofficialssaytheybelieveRussialikelyunderstandsthatcampaignrhetoricdoesn'tfullyreflectAmericanpolicy,
andthatdialoguewithMoscowcancontinueevenaspartyleadershammeratPutin.Butthetoughtalkislikely
makingpublicopinionmorehostiletowardsRussia,encouragingharder-linepoliciesfrommembersofCongress.

Thestakesarehighestwhenitcomestonuclearweaponsandotherweaponsofmassdestruction,saidSam
Nunn,aformerGeorgiaDemocratwhochairedtheSenateArmedServicesCommitteewhentheSovietUnion
collapsedin1991.Inthefollowingyears,NunnledcooperationwithMoscowtothatlockedordismantlepoorly-
securednuclear,chemicalandbiologicalweapons.

Butthatcooperationhasslowedinrecentyears,andthisspringRussiadeclinedtoattendObamasannual
nuclearsecuritysummitinWashington,developmentsthatNunncallstroubling.TheUnitedStatesandRussia
cannotaffordtotreatdialogueasabargainingchipgiventheirhugeremainingnuclearstockpiles,Nunnsaid.

Evenwhenwehaveprofounddifferences,westillhavetocommunicate,"Nunnsaid."Ithinkweareindangerof
losingsightofthat."

Readmore:http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/democrats-putin-dilemma-226446#ixzz4GCFn8twR
Followus:@politicoonTwitter|PoliticoonFacebook

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:2016-08-0212:40GMT-04:00
Subject:********8/NATO/+
To:

WarWithRussiaLooms,SaysFormerNATOGeneralinNewBook
8/1/16
http://www.newsweek.com/russia-nuclear-war-nato-richard-shirreff-485818

TrumpWarnsTakingCrimeaFromRussiaWouldTriggerWorldWarIII[ED:Russian
Abroad-chikAuthorDamienSharkovpressesathemevoicedbyDTthatVladoriginallywantedto
stress]

8/2/16
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-warns-taking-crimea-russia-would-trigger-world-war-iii-486226

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AdrianaBodnar<a-bodnar@sbcglobal.net>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at1:30PM
Subject:Fwd:WWIII??[/understanding-russian-alexsandr-dugin-and-the-inevitability-of-ww3]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

HelloProfessor!

Hopealliswellwithyouandyourfamily.

Thisisoldnews,butforwardingontoyou.

Blessings,

MUPOHandAdriana

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

Date:August2,20169:03:00AMCDT
Subject:WWIII??

Beginforwardedmessage:

http://www.glennbeck.com/2016/08/01/understanding-russian-alexsandr-dugin-and-the-inevitability-of-
ww3//?utm_source=articles&utm_medium=glenn-recommends&utm_campaign=glenn-recommends


From: PaulStronski<pmstronski@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/02/201607:48:49AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Re:HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook-TheNewYorkTimesIhavenorecollectionoftheincidentwiththebusinessmen.Doyou?(there'snolink
Subject:
either)

No,Idon'trememberthateverhappening.IthinkhemighthaveBrianWilliamssyndrome...

OnSun,Jul31,2016at12:36PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
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138

Photo
ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putinaskedthe
RussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes
PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

SignUpfortheOpinionTodayNewsletter
Everyweekday,getthought-provokingcommentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimeseditorialboardand
contributingwritersfromaroundtheworld.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicandpoliticalassistanceonnew
democracieslikeMyanmarandTunisia,whicharemostfragileintheirfirstyears
oftransition.ThestakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainetherewouldbeno
greatergifttoMr.PutinthantoletKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.

Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,
who?
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/02/201612:10:55PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[VLAD-O-RAMADOOM&GLOOM..THESECONDSEASON][MK]BIGFINNFUNDQUESTIONSGLOBALSTABILITY
Subject: [PB]SYRIANCONFLICT:AreWMDsreappearing?[Call'theRedLine'forHelp].[PB]RiggedElections[Past&Present??][VRT]Is
SOSKerryTryinga'NewR...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,August02,201611:36AM
Subject:Fwd:[VLAD-O-RAMADOOM&GLOOM..THESECONDSEASON][MK]BIGFINNFUNDQUESTIONSGLOBALSTABILITY[PB]
SYRIANCONFLICT:AreWMDsreappearing?[Call'theRedLine'forHelp].[PB]RiggedElections[Past&Present??][VRT]IsSOS
KerryTryinga'NewR...

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at2:27PM
Subject:[VLAD-O-RAMADOOM&GLOOM..THESECONDSEASON][MK]BIGFINNFUNDQUESTIONS
GLOBALSTABILITY[PB]SYRIANCONFLICT:AreWMDsreappearing?[Call'theRedLine'forHelp].[PB]
RiggedElections[Past&Present??][VRT]IsSOSKerryTryinga'NewReset'?(OHBOY!!].FINALLY:WWIIIas
theThemeofChoiceforthisWeek[VladisSmiling.Hehasmadehispoint!]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at1:54PM
Subject:This$40BillionFinnishFundSaysRussiaIsBiggestWorry-Bloomberg
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

This$40BillionFinnishFundSaysRussiaIsBiggestWorry-Bloomberg

IsolationismReturning?

ThebiggestgeopoliticalchallengeisstillhereinEurope,andRussiaandtherelationbetweenthetwo,Ritakalliosaid.Add
Turkeytothemix,andtheproblemsstarttolookevenbigger,hesaid.

WiththeU.S.settoholditsmostcontentiouspresidentialelectionindecades,investorsfacetwoverydifferentworldsafter
Novemberwiththegeopoliticalstakeshigherthanusual,dependingontheoutcome.TrumphasimpliedNATOmemberswould
onlygetU.S.assistanceiftheypaidforthefavor,whilehehasflirtedwithPutinwithoutprovidingmuchinsightintohowhewould
shapeU.S.-Russianrelationsinpractice.

ATrumpwininNovemberwilltriggeruncertaintyinmarkets,Ritakalliosaid.Thelongertermconcernswouldbehowan
isolationistpolicywouldaffecttheglobaleconomy,hesaid.
Therewouldbequestionsaroundthegeopoliticalsituationgloballyandthatisproblematic,Ritakalliosaid.Anincreasein
nationalismandprotectionismwouldrequireacompletereviewoftheeconomicoutlookandhowinvestmentstrategiesare
affected,hesaid.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at1:23PM
Subject:Syrianconflict:Saraqeb'attackedwithchlorinegas'-BBCNews[ED:Callthe'RedLine'forHelp]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Gee,itmusthavebeenthoselittlemenfromMarsagain.Youknow,thesameonewhoshotdownMH17.SomeonecallOrson
Wellesandtellhimtostopitnow!

It'sreallysadthattheoncevenerableBBCisnowsopenetratedandcompromisedthatit'snotlikelyanythingcouldeverreachthe
thresholdneededforthemtosay,"TheRussiansdidit!"

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-36951783

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at12:56PM
Subject:USelection:DonaldTrumpwarnsvotecouldbe'rigged'-BBCNews
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

WithPaulManafortatthehelm(atDTHQ),there'sabetterthanevenchancetheywillatleasttry.

Oneofthegreatlingeringfrustrationsofthe2010electioninUkraineisthepersistentfairytalethatYanukovychwonit"fairand
square".OtherthanManafort'snumbersandObama'sfirstoutofthegatetocongratulateYanukovychonhis"victory"(beating
evenPutintothepunch),thematterwasintentionallyneverfullyvetted.Therecertainlywereirregularities.Theelectionwasvery
closeandmassiveirregularities(likeoldstyleballotboxstuffing)werenotnecessary.Insomeareasjustminortweakingwould
havebeenenoughtoputYanukovychoverthetopandmanypeoplefeltthatisexactlywhathappened.Tymoshenko'speople
wereconvinceditwasriggedbutinafarmoresophisticatedwaythan,forexample,the04election.However,astheywere
preparingtheircase,ObamajumpedoutoftheboxtocongratulateYanukovychonwinning"fairandsquare"andsuddenlyitwas
allover.TymoshenkocouldarguewiththeCECbutnoonecouldarguewithPOTUS.Whateverthefacts,itwasover.

Thereasonbecameclearsometimelater,whenYanukovychturnedoverallofUkraine'snuclearmaterialtoRussiaandObama
declaredUkraineanuclearfreezone.ItwaspartofObama'sfantasyofPeaceonHisWatch,leavingbehindabetterandsafer
worldthanhefound.ItwashisWilsoniandream.Hejustdidn'tunderstand(ormaybedidn'tcare)thatitwasalreadypervertedby
theReSetvirus.HewastoofocusedonbuildinghisBraveNewBRICAWorld.Yanukovych(nodoubtcheeredonbyPutin)
happilyturnedoverthenuclearmaterialinexchangefortheUSnotlookingallthatcloselyattheelectionresults.Thus,Ukraine
wasstrippednotonlyofitsnuclearweaponsbutalsoitsnuclearpotential.Itallplayedouttoscript.Noonenoticedorseemedto
carethatitwasareallybadscript.ThethirdactwaswrittenbytheRussiansandtheendingwasreallybad,especiallyfor
Ukraine.

[EDPS:PointofInformation.PBdoesnotcriticizetheOB-ADlightlyhewasCACo-ChairofUkesforBO-JBin
'08and'12]
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36950083

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at1:28PM
Subject:JDisRight---KerryisTryinga'New'Reset(IsBObehinditaswell?)

READTEXT:DemocratsPUTINDilemma
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/democrats-putin-dilemma-226446

DonaldTrumpwasthebogeymanofthisweek'sDemocraticnationalconvention.Butplacingaclosesecondto
TrumpwasRussia'sPresident,VladimirPutin.Democratslinkedthetwobadguystogether,hammeringTrumpfor
hispastwordsofpraiseforPutinasa"strongleader"andhisclaimthattheU.S.would"getalonggreat"with
Russiaifheiselected.

HecoziesuptoPutin,saidPresidentBarackObama.VicePresidentJoeBidendenouncedTrumpfor
embracingdictatorslikeVladimirPutin.AndonThursdaynightHillaryClintonherselfsaidshewoulddefend
NATOalliesagainstanythreat,includingfromRussia.

Butjustthedaybefore,onTuesday,SecretaryofStateJohnKerrysatdownwithRussiasforeignminister,Sergei
Lavrov.OntheiragendawasaU.S.proposaltocooperatewithRussiainSyria,whichhepresentedinameeting
withPutinattheKremlinearlierthismonth.AndonThursday,aseniorObamaadministrationofficialremindeda
nationalsecurityconferencethatbetterrelationswithMoscow,somethingTrumphasbeencriticizedforsaying
wouldbeagreatthing,remainsacoregoalofU.S.foreignpolicy.

WedonotwanttobeadversarialwiththeRussians,saidElissaSlotkin,actingassistantsecretaryofdefensefor
internationalsecurityaffairs,inapanelattheAspenSecurityConference.Ithink,Ihope,thatthemessagethat
Russiaisreceivingnowisthatwewanttotalktoyou.WellsendJohnKerrytoMoscow.Weareopen,weare
readytotalktoyou.

Tobesure,ObamaofficialshavelowexpectationsabouttheprospectsforconstructivedealingswithPutin,who
haspursuedanaggressiveforeignpolicywhileclampingdownondissentathome.Theyarealsooutragedby
whattheybelievetobeaKremlin'shandinthecybertheftandreleaseofDemocraticNationalCommitteeemails.
(KerrysternlyraisedtheissuewithLavrovonTuesday,U.S.officialssaid.)AndSlotkinmadeclearthat
Washingtonsoffersofdialoguearepartofabalancethatincludesmilitarymuscle-flexingandstepslikerecent
U.S.reinforcementsofNATOseasternflank.Wehavetohaveatwindeter-and-dialoguemessage,Slotkinsaid.

2016
Trump goes it alone on Russia
ByKATIEGLUECK
ButsomeDemocraticnationalsecurityveteransfearthatapotentiallydangerouslevelofhostilitytoRussiahas
emergedinrecentweeks.TheysaythegrowingrivalrybetweenWashingtonandMoscow,stokedbycampaign
rhetoricaimedatdiscreditingTrump,maybetakingonalifeofitsown,makingglobalproblemshardertosolve
andincreasingtheriskofanaccidentalconflictpotentiallyevenanuclearone.

WeresleepwalkingintoanewColdWar,saidWilliamPerry,whoservedasSecretaryofDefenseunderBill
Clintonfrom1993to1996,aneraofrelativelywarmrelationsbetweentheU.S.andRussia.Thereshardlyany
debateaboutit,andthepublicdoesntunderstandthedanger.

Perrysaidheisparticularlyconcernedthatpoorcommunication,anarmsbuilduponbothsides,andjangled
nervesincreasethepossibilityofanaccidentalorunintentionalnuclearconfrontation.Incaseanyonethinksthats
anacademicconcern,Icantellyouthatsnotacademic,Perrysaid,recallinganightwhenwewasawokenat3
a.m.byanightdutyofficerandinformedthatradarwasshowinghundredsofRussianmissilesenroutetotheU.S.

Atthemoment,theObamaadministrationstopworryisnotnuclearwarbutendingtheSyriancivilwar,whichhas
leftmorethan400,000peopledead,fueledtheIslamicStateandalQaeda,andfloodedtheMiddleEastand
Europewithrefugees.WithObama'sapproval,KerryhasbeenworkingcloselywithLavrovthetwomenhave
spokendozensoftimesthisyeartostrikeanagreementthatwouldbeginlimitedmilitarycooperationbetween
WashingtonandMoscowinSyria.ManyU.S.officialsbelievetheSyrianconflictcanonlybesettledwithRussian
assistance.

Undertheagreement,theU.S.wouldprovidetheRussianswhoareaidingtheregimeofSyrianpresident
BasharAssadagainstanarmedoppositionthatincludestheIslamicStateandalQaeda,butalsomoremoderate
rebelswithintelligenceandtargetinginformationagainstIslamicradicals.Inreturn,theU.S.wouldexpect
MoscowtouseitsitsleverageoverAssadtohaltSyrianmilitarystrikesagainstcivilianareas.

ObamaofficialsinsistthatanycooperationwithRussiawouldnotbebasedontrust,butcontingentonverifiable
stepsbyMoscowandDamascus.Theirgoalistoalleviateciviliansufferingandadvanceapotentialpolitical
settlementtotheSyrianconflict.

Buttheproposalhasdrawnstronginternalopposition.Twoweeksagoananonymouscriticleakedthetextofthe
Kerry'splantotheWashingtonPost.OpponentssayitcouldfacilitateRussianstrikesonso-calledmoderate
SyrianrebelstrainedbytheCIA.TheyalsofearthatitwouldstrengthenAssad'sposition,therebyextendingthe
conflict.

Rep. Duckworth to Trump: I didn't serve my country 'so you could invite Russia to interfere with it'
ByDONOVANHARRELL
OneformerU.S.officialwhohasworkedonRussiaissuescalledthatleakadramaticdisplayofdissent:Theres
arift.Itsreallybad.

Moregenerally,skepticsofdialoguewithMoscowwhoaremostlyfoundatthePentagonandintelligence
agencies,butalsowithintheStateDepartmentwarnthatsimplytalkingtoPutinrewardsandmayeven
encouragehisbadbehavior.GivingtheRussianaseatattheinternationaltablefeedshiswishtore-establishhis
country,whoseeconomyissmallerthanSouthKorea's,asatopglobalpower,andgiveshimstatureathome.If
Putinthinkshewillbeinvitedtosolveproblemshehascaused,thefearisthathewillginupmoreofthem.

Hewantstobeseenastheleaderofagreatpower,coequalwiththeUnitedStates,saidNationalIntelligence
DirectorJamesClapper,alsospeakinginAspenonThursday.

AfterPutin's2014annexationofUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula,Obamathreatenedto"isolate"Russia,and
undercutits"statusintheworld."TheU.S.hasimposedeconomicsanctionsonRussia,andonseveralPutin
allies,overUkraine.

ButinrecentmonthsObamahasspokenfrequentlywithhisRussiancounterpart.Thetwomenmetthreetimeslast
fall,andspokemostrecentlyinaJuly6phonecall.KerryvisitedMoscowfivedayslaterhissecondtriptoRussia
thisyearandhisfourthinthepastyear.

Feedingtheconcernsofhard-linersinWashington,theKremlinseemstodelightinthesecontacts.AtaMay6
pressbriefing,RussianforeignministryspokeswomanMariaZakharovateasinglyrecitedanEnglish-language
poemaboutKerry'scontactswithMoscow,modifyingaworkbythe19thcenturyScottishpoetRobertBurnstitled
"MyHeart'sintheHighlands."

"HisheartisinMoscow,hisheartisnotthere.HisheartisinMoscow,chasingabear.ChasingnotGrizzlybut
Kremlinese.HisheartisinMoscowwhereverJohnis,"Zahharovasaid,concludingwithalaugh.

Whetherornotit'strueofKerry,thatversedoesnotapplytoU.S.intelligenceandcybersecurityofficials,whoare
doingbattlewithaggressiveRussiancyberespionageandhacking.ClappersaidtheU.S.isinaversionofwar
withMoscowinthoseareas.

SlotkinacknowledgedthemanytoughobstaclestodialoguewithRussia.Howdoyougetthebalanceright?Are
webeingtoocharitableandgivingthemtoomanyopportunitiestocomebacktothetable?Orareweproviding
suchahighlevelofdeterrencethatwerepotentiallyprovokingthem?Thatsthefundamentalquestion,Slotkin
said.

SomeEuropeanofficialshavealsowarnedabouttheriskofprovocation.AfteramajorNATOmilitaryexercisein
PolandlastmonththatsimulatedaconfrontationwithRussia,Germanysforeignministerexpressedhisunease.

Pence: Trumps Russia comment laced with sarcasm


ByMATTHEWNUSSBAUM
Whatweshouldn'tdonowisinflamethesituationfurtherthroughsabre-rattlingandwarmongering,saidthe
minister,Frank-WalterSteinmeier.Wearewell-advisedtonotcreatepretextstorenewanoldconfrontation,he
said,addingthatitwouldbefataltosearchonlyformilitarysolutionsandapolicyofdeterrence.

EvenObamasformerDefenseSecretary,ChuckHagel,hasissuedasimilarwarning.

"IfIweresecretaryofDefensetoday,I'dbecarefulwiththis,"HagelsaidataMay11mediaroundtablehostedby
theAtlanticCouncil."WecanfindourselvesveryquicklyinanotherColdWarbuilduphere,andthatreallymakes
nosenseforeitherside."

USofficialssaytheybelieveRussialikelyunderstandsthatcampaignrhetoricdoesn'tfullyreflectAmericanpolicy,
andthatdialoguewithMoscowcancontinueevenaspartyleadershammeratPutin.Butthetoughtalkislikely
makingpublicopinionmorehostiletowardsRussia,encouragingharder-linepoliciesfrommembersofCongress.

Thestakesarehighestwhenitcomestonuclearweaponsandotherweaponsofmassdestruction,saidSam
Nunn,aformerGeorgiaDemocratwhochairedtheSenateArmedServicesCommitteewhentheSovietUnion
collapsedin1991.Inthefollowingyears,NunnledcooperationwithMoscowtothatlockedordismantlepoorly-
securednuclear,chemicalandbiologicalweapons.

Butthatcooperationhasslowedinrecentyears,andthisspringRussiadeclinedtoattendObamasannual
nuclearsecuritysummitinWashington,developmentsthatNunncallstroubling.TheUnitedStatesandRussia
cannotaffordtotreatdialogueasabargainingchipgiventheirhugeremainingnuclearstockpiles,Nunnsaid.

Evenwhenwehaveprofounddifferences,westillhavetocommunicate,"Nunnsaid."Ithinkweareindangerof
losingsightofthat."

Readmore:http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/democrats-putin-dilemma-226446#ixzz4GCFn8twR
Followus:@politicoonTwitter|PoliticoonFacebook

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:2016-08-0212:40GMT-04:00
Subject:********8/NATO/+
To:

WarWithRussiaLooms,SaysFormerNATOGeneralinNewBook
8/1/16
http://www.newsweek.com/russia-nuclear-war-nato-richard-shirreff-485818

TrumpWarnsTakingCrimeaFromRussiaWouldTriggerWorldWarIII[ED:Russian
Abroad-chikAuthorDamienSharkovpressesathemevoicedbyDTthatVladoriginallywantedto
stress]

8/2/16
http://www.newsweek.com/trump-warns-taking-crimea-russia-would-trigger-world-war-iii-486226

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AdrianaBodnar<a-bodnar@sbcglobal.net>
Date:Tue,Aug2,2016at1:30PM
Subject:Fwd:WWIII??[/understanding-russian-alexsandr-dugin-and-the-inevitability-of-ww3]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

HelloProfessor!

Hopealliswellwithyouandyourfamily.

Thisisoldnews,butforwardingontoyou.

Blessings,

MUPOHandAdriana

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

Date:August2,20169:03:00AMCDT
Subject:WWIII??

Beginforwardedmessage:

http://www.glennbeck.com/2016/08/01/understanding-russian-alexsandr-dugin-and-the-inevitability-of-
ww3//?utm_source=articles&utm_medium=glenn-recommends&utm_campaign=glenn-recommends


From: PaulStronski<pmstronski@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/02/201607:48:49AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Re:HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook-TheNewYorkTimesIhavenorecollectionoftheincidentwiththebusinessmen.Doyou?(there'snolink
Subject:
either)

No,Idon'trememberthateverhappening.IthinkhemighthaveBrianWilliamssyndrome...

OnSun,Jul31,2016at12:36PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
ContinuereadingthemainstoryShareThisPage
Share
Tweet
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More
Save
138

Photo
ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putinaskedthe
RussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
CreditJamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes
PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

Continuereadingthemainstory
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

SignUpfortheOpinionTodayNewsletter
Everyweekday,getthought-provokingcommentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimeseditorialboardand
contributingwritersfromaroundtheworld.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicandpoliticalassistanceonnew
democracieslikeMyanmarandTunisia,whicharemostfragileintheirfirstyears
oftransition.ThestakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainetherewouldbeno
greatergifttoMr.PutinthantoletKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.

Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,
who?
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/01/201608:50:52AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"DonaldTRUMPgivesquestionableexplanationofeventsinUKRAINE,"nytimes.com,8/1

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,August01,20168:50AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"DonaldTRUMPgivesquestionableexplanationofeventsinUKRAINE,"nytimes.com,8/1

InaninterviewwithGeorgeStephanopoulosontheABCNewsprogramThisWeek,Mr.Trumpsaid
thatifhewerepresident,PresidentVladimirPutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.
HethenbackpedaledwhenMr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefor
nearlytwoyears.

And:S.V.Dale,TrumpPUSHEDforGOPtochangeUkraineposition,nowclaimshedidnt:Thepro
RussiachangewastheonlyplatformtweaktheTrumpcampcaredabout,sourcessay,
huggingtonpost.com,7/31

And:Detailed8pageportraitofTRUMPscampaignmanager:HowPaulMANAFORTwieldedpower
inUkrainebeforeadvisingDonaldTrump,nytimes.com,7/31

And:AnintensivelookatManafortscampaignteam,someofthemformeraides[e.g.Frank
MERMOUD]inthecampaigntopropupViktorYANUKOVYCH:DonaldTrumpandRussia:awebthat
growsmoretangledallthetime,theguardian.com,7/30

And:[Hillary]CLINTON:RussianIntelhackedtheDNC,thedailybeast.com,7/31

And:MichaelWEISS,JulianASSANGE,DonaldTrump,andVladimirPUTIN:ATroikaforourinsane
era,thedailybest.com,8/111pagearticle

Inabizarremindmeldthatcouldonlyhappentoday,theWikiLeaksfounderisrefusingtosay
whetherhegotthehackedDNCemailsfromRussia,andTrumpisdefendingRussia.

And:GorgeF.WILL,HowentangledwithRussiaisTrump,washingtonpost.com,7/29oped

And:InvestigativepieceonwhythemoderateMikhailZURABOVwasreplacedbyhardlinerMikhail
BABICHasRussiasambassadortoUKRAINE:
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/07/29_a_9719417.shtml

And:RussiaseconomystillFALLINGafterhittingrockbottomReport[byMoscowsHigherSchool
ofEconomics],themoscowtimes.com,8/1

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/01/201612:30:41AM
To: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Subject: Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016

138
ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
JamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,andPresident
VladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobalmovement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineeforpresident,
DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrongleader,Mr.
TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.SaudiArabia
intervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,while
privateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
SIGN UP
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/01/201612:30:41AM
To: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Subject: Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.

Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016

138
ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
JamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes

PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,andPresident
VladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobalmovement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineeforpresident,
DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrongleader,Mr.
TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.SaudiArabia
intervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,while
privateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
SIGN UP
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/31/201610:12:47AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[SATURDAY'VERYLATE'EVENINGPOST][IDIL/I-MARG/A]Fwd:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswenttoCrimeatodayto
Subject: improvemutualrelations.[PB]KremlinClaimsItWasHacked[Wouldyabelieveit?].[CHERM]ArmenianTroubles..[ANT/F]
Michael...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,July30,20169:20PM
Subject:Fwd:[SATURDAY'VERYLATE'EVENINGPOST][IDIL/I-MARG/A]Fwd:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswenttoCrimea
todaytoimprovemutualrelations.[PB]KremlinClaimsItWasHacked[Wouldyabelieveit?].[CHERM]ArmenianTroubles..
[ANT/F]Michael...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Jul31,2016at12:19AM
Subject:[SATURDAY'VERYLATE'EVENINGPOST][IDIL/I-MARG/A]Fwd:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswent
toCrimeatodaytoimprovemutualrelations.[PB]KremlinClaimsItWasHacked[Wouldyabelieveit?].[CHERM]
ArmenianTroubles..[ANT/F]MichaelMooreExpressesFondnessForDonaldTrump+Putin'sDayOfTheLongKnives
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:IdilP.Izmirli<idil.izmirli@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at6:47PM
Subject:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswenttoCrimeatodaytoimprovemutualrelations
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FYI:

TheyarefromSarkozy'spartyandtheywereinvitedfortheBlackSeaFleetcelebrationsinSevastopol,butstillIthinkthatsome
Europeancountriesaretiredofthosesanctions.Thisworriesme.IthinkifTrumpiselected,itwouldbeevenworseforCrimea.

IknowyoucanreadRussian.Sothereyougo.

http://gordonua.com/news/crimea/francuzskie-parlamentarii-planiruyut-posetit-okkupirovannyy-krym-v-den-vmf-rossii-
142125.html

--

IdilP.Izmirli,Ph.D.
VisitingScholar&
AdjunctFaculty
GeorgeMasonUniversity
SchoolforConflictAnalysisandResolution
3351FairfaxDriveMSN4D3,ArlingtonVA22201
Home:703-354-8051
Work:703-993-1300
iizmirl1@gmu.edu
Idil.izmirli@gmail.com

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MargaritaAssenova<assenova@jamestown.org>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at7:31PM
Subject:Re:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswenttoCrimeatodaytoimprovemutualrelations
To:"IdilP.Izmirli"<idil.izmirli@gmail.com>
Cc:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

HiIdil,

Youareright,thisiswhatPutinrelieson-todragtheconflictforaslongaspossible,sothattheEuropeansgettiredofit.Thenhe
will"freeze"itandconsolidatehisgains.ButtheconflictwillremainbleedingwhiletalkaboutCrimeamaystopinmanyplaces.

PotentialelectionofTrumpaspresidentwillmakePutin'splanseasier,becausehewillplayTrumpperfectly.Putinknowshowto
useothers'weaknesses.Thereisanotherevenbiggerdanger,iftheWestallowsPutintoachievehisinitialgoalsmentionedabove-
hecouldsubsequentlyundertakeafull-scaleoffensiveagainstUkrainetouniteDonbaswithterritoriesallthewaytoTransnistria.
ThisshouldnotbeexcludedaspotentialactionbytheKremlin.

CheckoutourlatestbookwithJanusz,thereisalotonRussia'sstrategyofsubversioninitsflanks:jamestown.orgorafree
downloadhere:http://jamestown.org/uploads/tx_jamquickstore/Eurasian_Disunion2.pdf

Allthebest,
Margarita

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at8:30PM
Subject:Russiacyberattack:Largehack'hitsgovernment'-BBCNews[ED:OhthepoorKremlin!!Canyou
believeit?Jeez.whatistheworldcomingto!!??]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Don'tbelieveit!PutinisthrowingupasmokescreentodeflectandcorruptnewsreportsofRussia'sspying."Geewhizfolks,
we'reallbeingattacked!ItmustbelittlemenfromMars.ThesameoneswhoforcedallthoseRussianathletestotakeallthat
dope!"

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36933239

A"professional"cyberattackhashitRussiangovernmentbodies,thecountry'sintelligenceservice
says.

A"cyber-spyingvirus"wasfoundinthenetworksofabout20organisations,theFederalSecurityService(FSB)
said.

ThereportcomesasRussiastandsaccusedoverdatabreachesinvolvingtheDemocraticPartyintheUS.

TheRussiangovernmenthasdeniedinvolvementandhasdenouncedthe"poisonousanti-Russian"rhetoric
comingoutofWashington.

TheFSBdidnotsaywhoitbelievedwasresponsibleforhackingRussiannetworks,butsaidthelatesthack
resembled"much-spoken-about"cyber-spying,withoutelaborating.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BardUkrainka<seanachie_holodonika@icloud.com>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at8:33PM
Subject:BBCNews:Armeniapoliceofficerkilledamidhostagecrisis[ED:AnotherpartofZB'sold'arcof
crisis'resurrected?]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

IsawthisontheBBCNewsAppandthoughtyoushouldseeit:

Armeniapoliceofficerkilledamidhostagecrisis

ApoliceofficerisshotdeadintheArmeniancapital,Yerevan,duringastand-offwithanarmedgroupbarricaded
insideapolicestation.

Disclaimer:TheBBCisnotresponsibleforthecontentofthisemail,andanythingwritteninthisemaildoesnotnecessarily
reflecttheBBC'sviewsoropinions.Pleasenotethatneithertheemailaddressnornameofthesenderhavebeenverified.

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at11:54AM
Subject:Putin'sDayOfTheLongKnives/5ReasonsWhyTrumpWillWin
To:

Putin'sDayOfTheLongKnives

http://www.rferl.org/content/daily-vertical-transcript-putins-day-of-long-knives/27887962.html
...whenallthedusthadclearedyesterday,fourregionalgovernors,fourfederaldistrictheads,adisgracedcustoms
chief,andRussia'sambassadortoUkrainehadbeenreplacedinamassivereshuffling.

Andthebigwinner?Well,thatwouldbethesecurityservicesandinparticulartheFSB.

"Siloviki"veteranswalkedawaywithmostofthekeyposts...

A/F<SEEBELOW>:byleft-wingsocialistMichaelMoore(inHuffingtonPost):

5ReasonsWhyTrumpWillWin/M.Moore

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-moore/5-reasons-why-trump-will-_b_11156794.html?
utm_hp_ref=world&ir=World
...

1.MidwestMath,orWelcometoOurRustBeltBrexit.

IbelieveTrumpisgoingtofocusmuchofhisattentiononthefourbluestatesintherustbeltoftheupperGreatLakes
-Michigan,Ohio,PennsylvaniaandWisconsin.FourtraditionallyDemocraticstates-buteachofthemhaveelecteda
Republicangovernorsince2010(onlyPennsylvaniahasnowfinallyelectedaDemocrat).IntheMichiganprimaryin
March,moreMichiganderscameouttovotefortheRepublicans(1.32million)thattheDemocrats(1.19million).
TrumpisaheadofHillaryinthelatestpollsinPennsylvaniaandtiedwithherinOhio.Tied?Howcantheracebethis
closeaftereverythingTrumphassaidanddone?Wellmaybeitsbecausehessaid(correctly)thattheClintons
supportofNAFTAhelpedtodestroytheindustrialstatesoftheUpperMidwest.TrumpisgoingtohammerClintonon
thisandhersupportofTPPandothertradepoliciesthathaveroyallyscrewedthepeopleofthesefourstates.

WhenTrumpstoodintheshadowofaFordMotorfactoryduringtheMichiganprimary,hethreatenedthecorporation
thatiftheydidindeedgoaheadwiththeirplannedclosureofthatfactoryandmoveittoMexico,hewouldslapa35%
tariffonanyMexican-builtcarsshippedbacktotheUnitedStates.Itwassweet,sweetmusictotheearsofthe
workingclassofMichigan,andwhenhetossedinhisthreattoApplethathewouldforcethemtostopmakingtheir
iPhonesinChinaandbuildthemhereinAmerica,well,heartsswoonedandTrumpwalkedawaywithabigvictorythat
shouldhavegonetothegovernornext-door,JohnKasich.

FromGreenBaytoPittsburgh,this,myfriends,isthemiddleofEngland-broken,depressed,struggling,the
smokestacksstrewnacrossthecountrysidewiththecarcassofwhatweusetocalltheMiddleClass.

Angry,embitteredworking(andnonworking)peoplewhowereliedtobythetrickle-downofReaganandabandonedby
Democratswhostilltrytotalkagoodlinebutarereallyjustlookingforwardtoruboneoutwithalobbyistfrom
GoldmanSachswhollwritethemnicebigcheckbeforeleavingtheroom.

WhathappenedintheUKwithBrexitisgoingtohappenhere.ElmerGantryshowsuplookinglikeBorisJohnsonand
justsayswhatevershithecanmakeuptoconvincethemassesthatthisistheirchance!TosticktoALLofthem,all
whowreckedtheirAmericanDream!AndnowTheOutsider,DonaldTrump,hasarrivedtocleanhouse!Youdont
havetoagreewithhim!Youdontevenhavetolikehim!HeisyourpersonalMolotovcocktailtothrowrightintothe
centerofthebastardswhodidthistoyou!

SENDAMESSAGE!TRUMPISYOURMESSENGER!

...

JuliaDavis

#RussiaisthebiggestsourceofISISfightersinEurope,but@RussianEmbassybaselesslyaccuses
Ukraine#RussiaLies

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/31/201609:36:53AM
To: Paul<pmstronski@gmail.com>
HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook-TheNewYorkTimesIhavenorecollectionoftheincidentwiththebusinessmen.Doyou?(there'snolink
Subject:
either)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016

138

ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
JamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes
PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
SIGN UP
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/31/201609:36:53AM
To: Paul<pmstronski@gmail.com>
HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook-TheNewYorkTimesIhavenorecollectionoftheincidentwiththebusinessmen.Doyou?(there'snolink
Subject:
either)

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook

HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016

138

ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
JamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes
PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.

Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.

SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.

WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.

Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.

ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.

Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?

WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.

Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.

Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.

Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.

Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.

Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.

Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.

Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.

Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.

Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
SIGN UP
From: SBallas<spirob7@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/30/201605:12:13PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:SLOAT

Sheshowed!

IhadheardaboutKaganmakingtheswitch-justunderscoresmypointthatifHillarywins,I'llbescratchingmyheadaboutwhy
WEareinAleppo...

OnSaturday,July30,2016,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
>
>http://theintercept.com/2016/07/25/robert-kagan-and-other-neocons-back-hillary-clinton/
>
>RobertKaganandOtherNeoconsAreBackingHillaryClinton
>
>AsHillaryClintonputstogetherwhatshehopeswillbeawinningcoalitioninNovember,manyprogressivesremainwarybut
shehasthewarhawksfirmlybehindher.
>
>IwouldsayallRepublicanforeignpolicyprofessionalsareanti-Trump,leadingneoconservativeRobertKagantoldagroup
gatheredaroundhim,groupie-style,ataforeignpolicyprofessionalsforHillaryfundraiserIattendedlastweek.Iwouldsaythat
amajorityofpeopleinmycirclewillvoteforHillary.
>
>Astheco-founderoftheneoconservativethinktankProjectfortheNewAmericanCentury,Kaganplayedaleadingrolein
pushingforAmericasunilateralinvasionofIraqandinsistedforyearsafterwardthatithadturnedoutgreat.
>
>Despitethecatastrophiceffectsofthatwar,KaganinsistedatlastweeksfundraiserthatU.S.foreignpolicyoverthelast25
yearshasbeenanextraordinarysuccess.
>
>RepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrumpsknow-nothingisolationismhasledmanyneoconstofleetheRepublicanticket.
Andsome,likeKagan,areactivelyhelpingClinton,whosehawkishnessinmanywaysresemblestheirown.
>
>Theeventraised$25,000forClinton.TworisingstarsintheDemocraticforeignpolicyestablishment,AmandaSloatand
JulianneSmith,alsospoke.
>
>ThewaytheydescribedClintonsforeignpolicyvisionsuggestedthatifelectedpresidentinNovember,shewillescalatetensions
withRussia,doubledownonmilitarybelligerenceintheMiddleEast,andgenerallyignoretheAmericanpublicsgrowinghostility
tointervention.
>
>Sloat,theformerdeputyassistantsecretaryofstateintheBureauofEuropeanandEurasianAffairs,boastedthatClintonwillbe
moreinterventionistandforward-leaningthanObamasbeeninSyria.ShealsoapplaudedClintonfordoinginterventiontheright
way,throughcoalitionsinsteadoftheunilateralaggressionthatdefinedtheBushyears.
>
>Nothingthat[Clinton]didwasmoreclearthantheNATOcoalitionthatshebuilttodefendciviliansinLibya,saidSloat,
referencingtheObamaadministrationsoverthrowofLibyandictatorMuammarGaddafi.Thatpolicy,spearheadedbyClinton,has
transformedaonce-stablestateintoalawlesshavenforextremistgroupsfromacrosstheregion,includingISIS.
>
>KaganhasadvocatedformuscularAmericaninterventioninSyriaClintonslikelypickforPentagonchief,MichelleFlournoy,
hassimilarlyagitatedforredirectingU.S.airstrikesinSyriatowardoustingSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.
>
>SmithtoldtheaudiencethatunlikeTrump,ClintonunderstandstheimportanceofdeterringRussianaggression,whichiswhy
Illsleepbetterwithherinthechair.SheisaformerdeputynationalsecurityadvisertoVicePresidentJoeBiden.
>
>SmithleftthegovernmenttobecomeseniorvicepresidentofBeaconGlobalStrategies,ahigh-poweredbipartisanconsulting
groupfoundedbyformerhigh-rankingnationalsecurityofficials.
>
>WhenRobbieMartin,afilmmakerwhorecentlyproducedathree-partdocumentaryontheneoconservativemovement,asked
howClintonplanstodealwithUkraine,Kaganrespondedenthusiastically.
>
>IknowHillarycaresmoreaboutUkrainethanthecurrentpresidentdoes,Kaganreplied.[Obama]saidtome[thathe
wouldntarmUkrainebecause]hedoesntwantanuclearwarwithRussia,headded,rollinghiseyesdismissively.Idontthink
ObamacaresaboutPutinanymoreatall.Ithinkheshopeless.
>
>KaganismarriedtoVictoriaNuland,theObamaadministrationshardlineassistantsecretaryofstateforEuropeanandEurasian
Affairs.Nuland,whowouldlikelyserveinaseniorpositioninaClintonadministration,supportsshippingweaponstoUkraine
despitemajoroppositionfromEuropeancountriesandconcernsabouttheneo-Nazielementsthoseweaponswouldempower.
>
>Anotherthingneoconservativesandliberalhawkshaveincommonisconfidencethattheforeignpolicyestablishmentisright,and
thegrowingpopulisthostilitytomilitaryinterventionisnaveanduninformed.
>
>KagancomplainedthatAmericansaresofocusedonthethingsthathavegonewronginrecentyears,theymissthesortofbasic
underlyingunusualqualityoftheinternationalorderthatwevebeenlivingin.
>
>ItsnotjustDonaldTrump,Kagansaid.Ithinkyoucanfindinbothpartiesaverystrongsensethatwedontneedtobeout
thereanymore.
>
>If,asIhope,HillaryClintoniselected,sheisgoingtoimmediatelybeconfrontingacountrythatisnotwheresheis,hesaid.
Sheisabelieverinthisworldorder.Butagreatsectionofthecountryisnotandisgoingtorequirepersuasionandeducation.
>
>Sloatagreed,arguingthatitsdangerousforpeopletodrawanti-interventionistlessonsfromLibyaandIraq.
>
>TheClinton-neoconpartnershipwassolidifiedbyTrumpbecomingtheRepublicannominee.Buttheiraffinityforeachotherhas
grownsteadilyovertime.
>
>TheneoconservativeWeeklyStandardcelebratedClintons2008appointmentassecretaryofstateasavictoryfortheright,
hailinghertransformationfromFirstFeministtoWarriorQueen,moreMargaretThatcherthanGloriaSteinem.
>
>ButthefundraiserwasperhapsthemostoutwardmanifestationyetoftheconvergencebetweentheDemocraticforeignpolicy
establishmentandtheneoconservativemovement.
>
>HannahMorrisoftheliberalpro-IsraellobbyinggroupJStreetcelebratedthisbipartisanshipasamomentousoccasion.
>
>Wecouldnotbemoreproudtohave[Kagan]heretoday,shesaid.
From: SBallas<spirob7@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/30/201605:12:13PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:SLOAT

Sheshowed!

IhadheardaboutKaganmakingtheswitch-justunderscoresmypointthatifHillarywins,I'llbescratchingmyheadaboutwhy
WEareinAleppo...

OnSaturday,July30,2016,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
>
>http://theintercept.com/2016/07/25/robert-kagan-and-other-neocons-back-hillary-clinton/
>
>RobertKaganandOtherNeoconsAreBackingHillaryClinton
>
>AsHillaryClintonputstogetherwhatshehopeswillbeawinningcoalitioninNovember,manyprogressivesremainwarybut
shehasthewarhawksfirmlybehindher.
>
>IwouldsayallRepublicanforeignpolicyprofessionalsareanti-Trump,leadingneoconservativeRobertKagantoldagroup
gatheredaroundhim,groupie-style,ataforeignpolicyprofessionalsforHillaryfundraiserIattendedlastweek.Iwouldsaythat
amajorityofpeopleinmycirclewillvoteforHillary.
>
>Astheco-founderoftheneoconservativethinktankProjectfortheNewAmericanCentury,Kaganplayedaleadingrolein
pushingforAmericasunilateralinvasionofIraqandinsistedforyearsafterwardthatithadturnedoutgreat.
>
>Despitethecatastrophiceffectsofthatwar,KaganinsistedatlastweeksfundraiserthatU.S.foreignpolicyoverthelast25
yearshasbeenanextraordinarysuccess.
>
>RepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrumpsknow-nothingisolationismhasledmanyneoconstofleetheRepublicanticket.
Andsome,likeKagan,areactivelyhelpingClinton,whosehawkishnessinmanywaysresemblestheirown.
>
>Theeventraised$25,000forClinton.TworisingstarsintheDemocraticforeignpolicyestablishment,AmandaSloatand
JulianneSmith,alsospoke.
>
>ThewaytheydescribedClintonsforeignpolicyvisionsuggestedthatifelectedpresidentinNovember,shewillescalatetensions
withRussia,doubledownonmilitarybelligerenceintheMiddleEast,andgenerallyignoretheAmericanpublicsgrowinghostility
tointervention.
>
>Sloat,theformerdeputyassistantsecretaryofstateintheBureauofEuropeanandEurasianAffairs,boastedthatClintonwillbe
moreinterventionistandforward-leaningthanObamasbeeninSyria.ShealsoapplaudedClintonfordoinginterventiontheright
way,throughcoalitionsinsteadoftheunilateralaggressionthatdefinedtheBushyears.
>
>Nothingthat[Clinton]didwasmoreclearthantheNATOcoalitionthatshebuilttodefendciviliansinLibya,saidSloat,
referencingtheObamaadministrationsoverthrowofLibyandictatorMuammarGaddafi.Thatpolicy,spearheadedbyClinton,has
transformedaonce-stablestateintoalawlesshavenforextremistgroupsfromacrosstheregion,includingISIS.
>
>KaganhasadvocatedformuscularAmericaninterventioninSyriaClintonslikelypickforPentagonchief,MichelleFlournoy,
hassimilarlyagitatedforredirectingU.S.airstrikesinSyriatowardoustingSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.
>
>SmithtoldtheaudiencethatunlikeTrump,ClintonunderstandstheimportanceofdeterringRussianaggression,whichiswhy
Illsleepbetterwithherinthechair.SheisaformerdeputynationalsecurityadvisertoVicePresidentJoeBiden.
>
>SmithleftthegovernmenttobecomeseniorvicepresidentofBeaconGlobalStrategies,ahigh-poweredbipartisanconsulting
groupfoundedbyformerhigh-rankingnationalsecurityofficials.
>
>WhenRobbieMartin,afilmmakerwhorecentlyproducedathree-partdocumentaryontheneoconservativemovement,asked
howClintonplanstodealwithUkraine,Kaganrespondedenthusiastically.
>
>IknowHillarycaresmoreaboutUkrainethanthecurrentpresidentdoes,Kaganreplied.[Obama]saidtome[thathe
wouldntarmUkrainebecause]hedoesntwantanuclearwarwithRussia,headded,rollinghiseyesdismissively.Idontthink
ObamacaresaboutPutinanymoreatall.Ithinkheshopeless.
>
>KaganismarriedtoVictoriaNuland,theObamaadministrationshardlineassistantsecretaryofstateforEuropeanandEurasian
Affairs.Nuland,whowouldlikelyserveinaseniorpositioninaClintonadministration,supportsshippingweaponstoUkraine
despitemajoroppositionfromEuropeancountriesandconcernsabouttheneo-Nazielementsthoseweaponswouldempower.
>
>Anotherthingneoconservativesandliberalhawkshaveincommonisconfidencethattheforeignpolicyestablishmentisright,and
thegrowingpopulisthostilitytomilitaryinterventionisnaveanduninformed.
>
>KagancomplainedthatAmericansaresofocusedonthethingsthathavegonewronginrecentyears,theymissthesortofbasic
underlyingunusualqualityoftheinternationalorderthatwevebeenlivingin.
>
>ItsnotjustDonaldTrump,Kagansaid.Ithinkyoucanfindinbothpartiesaverystrongsensethatwedontneedtobeout
thereanymore.
>
>If,asIhope,HillaryClintoniselected,sheisgoingtoimmediatelybeconfrontingacountrythatisnotwheresheis,hesaid.
Sheisabelieverinthisworldorder.Butagreatsectionofthecountryisnotandisgoingtorequirepersuasionandeducation.
>
>Sloatagreed,arguingthatitsdangerousforpeopletodrawanti-interventionistlessonsfromLibyaandIraq.
>
>TheClinton-neoconpartnershipwassolidifiedbyTrumpbecomingtheRepublicannominee.Buttheiraffinityforeachotherhas
grownsteadilyovertime.
>
>TheneoconservativeWeeklyStandardcelebratedClintons2008appointmentassecretaryofstateasavictoryfortheright,
hailinghertransformationfromFirstFeministtoWarriorQueen,moreMargaretThatcherthanGloriaSteinem.
>
>ButthefundraiserwasperhapsthemostoutwardmanifestationyetoftheconvergencebetweentheDemocraticforeignpolicy
establishmentandtheneoconservativemovement.
>
>HannahMorrisoftheliberalpro-IsraellobbyinggroupJStreetcelebratedthisbipartisanshipasamomentousoccasion.
>
>Wecouldnotbemoreproudtohave[Kagan]heretoday,shesaid.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/30/201608:30:07AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-29]RUAirstrikes
Subject:
['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUofUnderminingUAPeacePlan...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,July29,20169:02PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-29]RU
Airstrikes['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUofUnderminingUAPeace
Plan...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at12:00AM
Subject:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-
29]RUAirstrikes['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUof
UnderminingUAPeacePlanDTRUResetIdeasBackedbyNation'sSC..[PC]DNCHackerDIDworkforRU..[ANT/F]
RUDuma&VolynRUtrollswithnewtasksAmericanswhothinkVladisOKRUPromisesExitCorridorsforRebs/Civiliansin
Aleppo[asktheUAsoldiersinIlovaiskaboutthat]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at12:49PM
Subject:FPIConferenceCallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections
To:walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIConferenceCallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections

Yesterday,FPIhostedaconferencecalltodiscussRussianinterferenceinforeignelections,toincludeitsreportedhackoftheDemocratic
NationalCommittee.ThespeakersonthecallwereDavidJ.KrameroftheMcCainInstitute,PatrikMaldreofRetelPartners,andHannahThoburn
oftheHudsonInstitute.FPIbelievesthatthefollowinginsightssharedbytheexpertswillbeespeciallyusefultolawmakersandtheirstaffaswell
asallthoseinunderstandingtheimplicationsofRussiascyberactivitiesandinterferenceinforeignelections.

AfullrecordingoftheconferencecallisalsoavailableontheFPIwebsite.
RussianCyberActivities

Russiahasbeenreallydevelopingoffensivecybercapabilitiesformanyyears.Thesethreatgroups,manysecuritycompaniesfollowthese,
obviouslytheintelligenceagenciesaswell.Theyreallyconsistofprofessional,veryskilledpractitionerswhosedayjobistocarryoutthese
attacks.Theyreceivespecificordersonwhichinstitutionstotargetandwhatkindofinformationisneeded.PatrikMaldre

Thisparticularthreatactorhasbeenattackingavarietyofcountries.ItwasthesameFancyBearmalwareusedintheUkrainecentralelection
commissionservers,FrenchTVattacks,alotofdifferentattackshavebeenassociatedwiththis.Thesearethreatactorsthatareconducting
multipleoperationsatthesametime.Theirmalwaremightbepresentindozensifnothundredsoforganizationsatthemoment.Butitsawhole
differentstorywhentheystartusingthistoovertlyattackanelectioncycle.PatrikMaldre

AverylargeportionoftheUkrainianpowergridwasdisabledbyamalwareattackjustlastwinter.Sothesearethekindsofthingsthathavebeen
happening,andtheyhaventreallymadeitintotheU.S.publicconsciousness,butwerenowstartingtoseethisisbecomingveryrelevanttothe
survivalandthehealthyoperationofourowndemocracy.HannahThoburn

ImplicationsoftheDNCHack

Tosendthesedocumentsorthisinformationtomediaoutletsortopublishthempubliclysignalsanintentnotjusttoknowandunderstand
thingsaboutthepoliticalprocess,butcruciallytoplayanactiveroleinit.Withthisdisclosure,theDNChackreallytransitionedfromespionage
intotherealmofinfluenceoperations.PatrikMaldre

Whatweveseeninthislatestcaseiswellbeyondgatheringintelligence.ThisisanefforttoataminimumdisrupttheU.S.politicalsystem,the
presidentialcampaign.PossiblythegoalistoembarrassonecandidateorsupportanotherbutIagreewithPatrikthatthisisanattackonthe
Americanpoliticalsystem,itsnotanattackontheDNC,itcouldhavebeenanattackontheRNC,itcouldvebeenanattackonanybody.
DavidKramer

TheRussianMindset

RussiareallyaimstoweakenanddestabilizetheU.S.anddividethetransatlanticinstitutionsandalliancesthatbindustogetherandsoitsreally
nosecretatthispointthatRussiahasincorporatedsignalsintelligenceandcybercapabilitiesintothebroaderarsenalthatitusestoachieve
thesegoals.PatrikMaldre

[Russians]say,lookyouremeddlinginourelectionssoweregoingtodothesamethingtoyou.ItsveryinterestingbecausewhattheRussians
conceiveofasU.S.meddlingisentirelydifferent.Itisessentiallysupportingafoundationthatmonitorselectionsandcallsforfreeandfair
elections.ThatstheRussianideaofU.S.meddlinginanelection.HannahThoburn

WeneedtounderstandthekindofRussiaweretalkingaboutthesedays,whichisaRussiathatwasverypleasedtoseetheflowofrefugees
intoEurope,exacerbatingarefugeecrisisthereaRussiathathassupportedthemurderousAssadregimeinSyria,alongwithIranaRussiathat
hasinvadeditsneighbors,Ukrainestartingin2014,Georgia,2008.Theydemonizeus,theyvilifyus,theythreatenus.Theytalkaboutusing
nuclearweapons.Theybuzzouraircraftandourships.Andsothisisnotabenignregimeintheleast.AndIthinkwehavetolookatthishacking
incidentagainstthatbackdrop,thatthisisjustthelatestofmanyverydisturbingdevelopmentsweveseencomingoutofMoscow.David
Kramer

RussianInterferenceinEuropeanElections

ItisreallyincentralandEasternEuropethattheyvereallybeenabletopracticeandhonethesetechniquesandyourenowstartingtoseethat
theyrecomfortableenoughwiththemtostarttoexportthemtootherpartsoftheworld.HannahThoburn

[Russia]hasprovideddirectopensupportforMarineLePeninFranceinthehopethatthatsupportwouldboostherstandinginFrance.It
supportedforcesinGreeceandItaly.SoRussianinterferenceinothercountriespoliticsandelectionsisnotanewphenomenonandithasmoved
beyondjustRussiasimmediateborders.DavidKramer

IvearguedforalongtimethatPutinsgreatestexportiscorruption.Butinordertoexportit,wehavetoimportit.Andsoweinthewestneedto
doamuchbetterjobofcleaningupourownsystems,ofrestoringasenseofshameandhonourthatseemtohavedisappeared.Itshouldntbe
acceptabletoopenlytakeRussianmoney,itshouldntbeacceptabletocovertlytakeRussianmoneyandyetthatdoesseemtobehappeningin
oursystems.DavidKramer

PotentialWesternResponses
Forstarters,assumingweareconfidentthatRussiawasbehindthishackingweshouldpubliclysayso.Beyondthatthereareanumberof
optionsthatcouldincludeacyberattackofsomesort,itcouldincludegoingafterindividualsintheseagencies,sanctioningthem,makingsure
alliesareonboard.DavidKramer

TheUSgovernmentandotherwesterngovernmentsreallywanttokeeptheir[offensivecyber]capabilitiesunderwrapsjustbecauseassoonas
thetechnicalcharacteristicsofthesecapabilitiesareknown,opponentscantakeactiontoreducetheireffectivenessormakethemnotworkatall.
Thereareoffensivecapabilitiestouse,thequestionis,doesthisparticularcasegetoverthethresholdneededtotriggeraresponse.Patrik
Maldre

RussiansgetmostoftheirnewsandinformationfromTVandsotakingovertelevisionwasthewayforPutintomakesurehehadcontrolover
thewayRussiansreceivetheirnewsandinformation.We,inmyview,shouldnotengageincounter-propaganda,weshouldsupportfact-based
journalismtohelpgetnewsandinformationinsideRussiaaswelltoRussian-speakingpopulationsandcountriesalongRussiasbordertolet
themknowwhatsreallyhappeninginsidetheircountry.DavidKramer

AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative

FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromotean
activeU.S.foreignpolicycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthe
challengesofthe21stcentury,andstrengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisled
byExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoardofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visit
ourwebsiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at2:03PM
Subject:FW:R'sairstrikesinS[yria][ED:Alsonotethe'humanitarianconvoysRUisproposingforAleppo..callit
"DONBASII"]
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

From:ThomasHHenriksen[mailto:thomash@stanford.edu]
Sent:Friday,July29,201610:34AM
To:JohnBDunloppaulroderickgregory
Subject:R'sairstrikesinS

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russianairstrikessyriajune18july132016

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: June 18 July 13, 2016


...
www.understandingwar.org

Russia set conditions for the proposal through a calculated expansion


and subsequent tapering of its air campaign throughout June and July
2016.
---------Forwardedmessage----------

From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at3:20PM
Subject:Ukraine:RFE/RL,NYT
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

Twomoreforyourweekendreadingwellworthit.

RFE/RL
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-us-diplomats-russia-undermining-peace-plan/27888327.html

July29,2016

U.S.DiplomatsAccuseRussiaOfUnderminingUkrainePeacePlan

byRobertCoalson

TwotopU.S.diplomatsworkingtoresolvetheconflictineasternUkrainehaveaccusedRussiaofcontinuingtosupplyseparatist
fighterswithfuelandweaponsandcreatinga"deterioratingsecuritysituation"intheregionthatisasbadasitwasayearago.

AmbassadorDanielBaer,headoftheU.S.missiontotheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),andU.S.
AmbassadortoUkraineGeoffreyPyattmadethestatementsduringaJuly29telephonicpressbriefingfromVienna.

ThebriefingcameonedayaftertheheadoftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)inUkraine,ErtugrulApakan,and
OSCEspecialrepresentativeonUkraineMartinSajdikbriefedtheOSCEPermanentCouncilonthesituation.

BaersaidtheUnitedStatesandotherOSCEmemberswereincreasinglyconcernedbywhattheyseeasadisconnectbetween
Russia'swordsanditsactionsregardingtheconflict.

"Weseecontinuedresupplyofweaponsandfightersweseecontinuedprovocationstokeeptheconflictgoingweseecontinued
restrictionsoftheSMManditsmonitorsweseecontinuedshoot-downsofSMMUAVs[drones]aftertheyhaveseenRussian
heavyweaponryinplaceswhereitshouldn'tbe,"Baersaid.

"Andso,themessagethatwasdeliveredtotheRussianFederationyesterdaybymany,manyparticipatingstatesinthe[OSCE]
PermanentCouncilisthatitistimetomatchyourwordswithaction."

Pyattstressedthesamepoint,sayingthatRussia'scontinuedmaterialsupportofseparatistfightersineasternUkrainewas"driving
theconflict."

"Ratherthanterminatingthisconflict,Russia'sactionsarehavingtheeffectofescalatingitonceagain,"Pyattsaid.

TheambassadorsalsoaccusedRussiaoffailingtoimplementtheMinskagreementthatwassignedinSeptember2014andwhich,
alongwithasecondagreementsignedinFebruary2015,issupposedtoprovidearoadmapforresolvingthecrisis.

PyattsaidRussiahadfailedtowithdrawtroopsandequipment,fullyimplementthecease-fireenvisionedundertheMinsk
agreements,andreleaseallhostages.

BaersaidthattheMinskaccordshad"allofthestepsthatarenecessary"toendtheconflict.

"Wehaveknownwhatneedstobedonefortwoyearsnow,"hesaid."Theproblemisnotinsolvingsomesortofdifficultpuzzle.
Thisisnotapuzzle.Theproblemispoliticalwill."

BaeraddedthattheU.S.positiononnotrecognizingRussia's2014annexationoftheUkrainianBlackSeapeninsulaofCrimea
remainedunchanged.

"Apointthatwehavemadehere[attheOSCE]whenRussianrepresentativessaytheywanttohaveaconversationaboutthe
futureofEuropeansecurityisthatanyconversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecuritywillhavetostartwithCrimea,"Baer
said.

AccordingtotheUnitedNations,morethan9,400peoplehavebeenkilledinfightingbetweenUkrainiansecurityforcesand
Russia-backedmilitantsineasternUkrainesinceApril2014.

TheNewYorkTimes
Trump'sRussiaResetIdeasAlarmingAllies,ManyinUS

[ED:ButtheAPcrowdwritingthearticleapparentlythinksthattheideasareworthyofconsideration]

JUSTLOOKATTHEFOLLOWINGQUOTEFROMTHEARTICLE.Ol'SteveCohen,furtherleftthanBernie,is
complimentarytotheDonald!!W'atBUpWit'T'at????.:

ButStevenCohen,professoremeritusofRussianstudiesatPrincetonandNewYorkUniversity,creditsTrumpforhoming
inonissuesthatareripefordiscussion.HesaidthatwhileTrumptalks"elliptically"and"justcan'twonk,"theGOP
nominee"inhisownwayseemstobeadvocatingdetente,"whichCohenseesasanadmirablegoal.

Cohensaidit'stimeforcriticstostopusing"McCarthyite"languagetodemonizeTrumpandhaveaserious
discussionabouttheissueshe'sraising.

"It'scalledadebate,"saidCohen."You'resupposedtohavetheminapresidentialcampaign."

ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJULY29,2016,3:04P.M.E.D.T.
Continuereadingthemainstory

PHILADELPHIADonaldTrump'sflurryofoffhandremarksandabruptzingersonRussiapraisingVladimirPutin,
dismissingNATOhavejoltedtheworld,nottomentiontheU.S.presidentialcampaign.

WithRussia'sbehaviorrattlingnervesintheU.S.andabroad,theRepublicanpresidentialnomineeisaccusedofcozyinguptoa
"dictator."OfthreateningtheveryunderpinningsofAmerica'srelationshipwithEurope.Andofnaivet.

Yetforallthat,Trump'swordsareconsistentwithsomelong-heldU.S.views,manyexpertssay.TheideaoffosteringU.S.-
Russiancooperationisn'toutlandishafterall,HillaryClintontriedto"reset"relationswithRussiaassecretaryofstate.Andpast
U.S.administrationsofbothpartieshavequietlycomplainedthatotherNATOmembersshouldpaytheirsharetothealliance.

It'sreallyTrump'swayofexpressinghisviewsthathasshockedmanyforeignpolicyexperts.

OnWednesday,TrumpofferedthisvisionforrosierU.S.-Russianrelations:

"IwouldtreatVladimirPutinfirmlybutthere'snothingthatIcanthinkofthatI'dratherdothanhaveRussiafriendlyasopposed
tothewaytheyarerightnowsothatwecangoandknockoutISIStogetheralongwithotherpeopleandwithothercountries,"
hesaid."Wouldn'titbeniceifweactuallygotalongwithpeople?"

TrumpalsopraisedtheRussianpresidentforhaving"betterleadershipqualities"thanPresidentBarackObamaandindicatedhe'd
considerliftingsanctionsagainstMoscowandrecognizingRussia'sannexationofCrimea.

AsforNATO,TrumpsaidthebasicideaofthealliancewasOKbutthat"it'sgottobemodernized.Andcountriesthatwe're
protectinghavetopaywhatthey'resupposedtobepaying."

Daysearlier,hesuggestedthathewoulddecidewhethertoprotectNATOalliesagainstRussianaggressionbasedonwhetherthey
had"fulfilledtheirobligations"financially.

AndhisoffhandinvitationforRussiatohelpunearththedeletedemailsfromClinton'sStateDepartmentyearsappearedtoviolate
acardinalruleagainstforeignmeddlinginU.S.politics.

Foreignpolicyexpertsofallstripes"areleftslack-jawed"byTrump'spronouncements,saidDerekChollet,asenioradviseratthe
GermanMarshallFundandformerPentagonofficialintheObamaadministration.

"Helooksattheworldsolelythroughtheprismofbusinesstransactions,talkingaboutalliesasifthey'reAtlanticCitycontractors
thathecanbilk,"saidChollet,whospokeoutinfavorofClintonduringherDemocraticprimarycampaignagainstSen.Bernie
Sanders.

ButStevenCohen,professoremeritusofRussianstudiesatPrincetonandNewYorkUniversity,creditsTrumpforhominginon
issuesthatareripefordiscussion.HesaidthatwhileTrumptalks"elliptically"and"justcan'twonk,"theGOPnominee"inhisown
wayseemstobeadvocatingdetente,"whichCohenseesasanadmirablegoal.

Cohensaidit'stimeforcriticstostopusing"McCarthyite"languagetodemonizeTrumpandhaveaseriousdiscussionaboutthe
issueshe'sraising.

"It'scalledadebate,"saidCohen."You'resupposedtohavetheminapresidentialcampaign."

AndyetDemocratsarenottheonlyonestorecoilatTrump'sremarks.SenateMajorityLeaderMitchMcConnell,amongother
topRepublicans,swiftlyexpresseddisagreementwiththenomineeandpromisedthatotherNATOmemberscancountontheU.S.
todefendthem.

DavidKramer,whowasaStateDepartmentofficialintheGeorgeW.Bushadministration,saidheandmanyotherforeignpolicy
thinkerssee"aRussiathatposesathreat.He(Trump)seesaleaderinVladimirPutinwhohethinkshecandevelopagood
relationshipwith."

Trump'scommentaboutCrimeaandRussiansanctions,saysKramer,sent"terriblesignalsandwillbeinterpretednotonlyasa
betrayalbytheUnitedStatesofouralliesbutasrewardingaggressivebehaviorbyRussia."

Inthe2012presidentialcampaign,thedynamicoverRussiawasswitched:RepublicannomineeMittRomneythencriticized
ObamaforbeingtooaccommodatingtowardRussia.AndDemocratsweretheonesfaultingRomneyforsayingthatRussiawas
America's"No.1geopoliticalfoe."

Obama'searlyhopeforthatresetwithMoscowhadlargelyevaporatedevenbeforeRussia's2014annexationofUkraine's
CrimeanpeninsulaanditsmilitaryinterventionineasternUkraine,whichunnervedcountriesonNATO'seasternflankthatfearthey
alsomaybetargetsofRussianintimidationoraggression.

Againstthatbackdrop,Trump'sremarksraisingdoubtsabouthonoringU.S.NATOcommitmentscreatedaninternationaluproar.

JulianneSmith,aformerdeputynationalsecurityadvisertoVicePresidentJoeBiden,saidTrumpdoesn'tseemtograspthe
complexitiesoftheU.S.relationshipwithRussia,reflectingbothinexperienceandalackofstrongadvisers.

"It'snotaquestionofwhetherPutinisgoodorbad,"shesaid."It'sabouthandlingaverydelicateandvolatilesituationthatcango
sourveryquickly."

YetothersnotethateventhecurrentObamaadministrationdependsonRussiaandseeksitshelpwithmanyworldcrises.

InSyria,despitedeepmutualfrustration,theU.S.andRussiaaretryingtoworktogethertoendafive-yearcivilwarthathasledto
globalterrorismfears.They'reevendiscussingamilitaryallianceagainsttheIslamicStategroup.CooperationextendstotheIran
nucleardeal,NorthKoreaandmore.

___

AssociatedPresswritersJillColvininToledo,Ohio,andBradleyKlapper,RobertBurnsandDebRiechmanninWashington
contributedtothisreport.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at7:30PM
Subject:'DNCHacker'Unmasked:HeReallyWorksforRussia,ResearchersSay-Slashdot
To:

http://it.slashdot.org/story/16/07/26/180204/dnc-hacker-unmasked-he-really-works-for-russia-researchers-say

ThehackerwhoclaimedtocompromisetheDNCsworehewasRomanian,butnewinvestigationshowsheworkeddirectlyfor
RussiaPresidentVladimirPutin'sgovernmentinMoscow.TheDailyBeastreports:Thehackerwhoclaimstohavestolen
emailsfromtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandprovidedthemtoWikiLeaksisactuallyanagentoftheRussian
governmentandpartofanorchestratedattempttoinfluenceU.S.mediacoveragesurroundingthepresidentialelection,a
securityresearchgroupconcludedonTuesday.Theresearchers,atArlington,Va.-basedThreatConnect,tracedtheself-
describedRomanianhackerGuccifer2.0backtoanInternetserverinRussiaandtoadigitaladdressthathasbeenlinked
inthepasttoRussianonlinescams.Farfrombeingasingle,sophisticatedhacker,Guccifer2.0ismorelikelyacollection
ofpeoplefromthepropagandaarmoftheRussiangovernmentmeanttodeflectattentionawayfromMoscowastheforce
behindtheDNChacksandleaksofemails,theresearchersfound.ThreatConnectisthefirstknowngroupofexpertsto
linktheself-proclaimedhackertoaRussianoperation,amidstanongoingFBIinvestigationandapresidential
campaignrockedbythereleaseofDNCemailsthathaveembarrassedseniorpartyleadersandinflamedintraparty
tensionsturningtheDemocraticNationalConvention.Theemailsrevealedthatpartyinsidersplottedwaystoundermine
Sen.BernieSanders'presidentialbid.Theresearchersattheaforementionedsecurityfirmarebasingtheirconclusiononthree
signals:thehackerusedRussiancomputerstoeditPDFfiles,healsousedRussianVPN--andotherinternetinfrastructurefrom
thecountry,andthathewasunabletospeakRomanian.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at6:09PM
Subject:RUtorecognizeVolhyniaasgenocide/RUpro-Trumptrolls/TheAmericanswhothinkPutinisntsobad(WP)/+

To:

[ED:TheDumaDeclarationontheVolynTragedyas'Genocide'isproofpositivethatthecurrentPL-UAcontroversy
hasa"RUpoliticaltechnologicaltail"attachedbutmorepiquantisthegallofKremlin.givenitssilenceaboutthe
HOLODOMORforover80years]

RussianStateDumaalsosuggeststorecognizeVolhyniaMassacreasgenocide

http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-state-duma-also-suggests-to-recognize-volhynia-massacre-as-genocide-706421.html
"TheStateDumaoftheFederalAssemblyoftheRussianFederationsendsitssincerecondolencestothePolish
peopleinconnectionwithanationaltragedy,andexpressesitsprofoundsolidaritywiththeSejmoftheRepublicof
PolandontheissueofrecognitionofthecrimescommittedbytheUkrainiannationalistsontheterritoryofVolynas
genocide,"

ItlookslikeRussiahiredinternettrollstoposeaspro-TrumpAmericans

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-internet-trolls-and-donald-trump-2016-7

TheAmericanswhothinkVladimirPutinisntsobad

ByAdamTaylorJuly28

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/28/the-americans-who-think-vladimir-putin-isnt-so-bad/
...
FionaHill,anexpertonRussiawhoco-authoredabiographyofPutin,saysthatonarecentU.S.booktourshewasstruckby
howpositivepeoplewereaboutPutin."There'salotofadmirationforPutin,"HillsaidThursday."It'sgrudging,butpeopleseehim
asoneofthoselarger-than-lifecharacters."
...
AmorerecentpollhasevensuggestedthatPutinhaslowernegativeratingsthanTrumporClinton.Evenifplentyof
peopledonotlikePutin,it'spossiblethatnotthatmanyviewhimasamajorthreat.InaGalluppollfromFebruary,just39percent
ofAmericanswerefoundtoviewRussia'smilitarypowerasacriticalthreat.Thiswasfarbehindthetop-rankedfear,international
terrorism,which79percentofAmericanslistedasacriticalthreat.(Also,73percentrankedcyberterrorism"theuseof
computerstocausedisruptionorfearinsociety"asacriticalthreat.)

Anecdotally,foryears,therehavebeensignsthatasmallyetvocalsegmentofU.S.societyviewedPutininapositive
lightor,attheleast,thoughthisnegativereputationwasoverblownorsomehowhypocritical.StephenF.Cohen,awriterfor
theNationmagazine,isoneexampleofaleft-leaningjournalistwhohaspushedbackagainstcriticismofPutinoftendrawinghis
owncriticsintheprocess.

WhathasbeenmoreobviouslyapparentistheviewofPutinfromsomecornersoftherightwing.Attimes,thetonehasappeared
tobesardonic,suchaswhenright-wingbloggingstarMattDrudgelabeledhim"theleaderofthefreeworld"in2013,ormore
genuinelycontemplative,suchaswhenconservativewriterPatBuchananwroteacolumnaskingwhetherPutinwas"oneofus?"
...
...Putin'simagehasbeencraftedbyyearsoffocusgroupsandhighlypaidPRconsultants.
...

JacekSaryusz-Wolski

Competitioncommissioner@vestagerselectivelytough,hardonWesterncompanies,weakonGazprom'sgangster
conduct

http://www.politico.eu/article/vestager-gets-mugged-by-brussels-reality/

PaulNiland

Thanks@OSCE_SMMfor(finally)statingwhichsideisresponsibleforcertain#Minskobligationbreaches.
OSCE

LatestfromOSCEmonitors@Ukraine:@OSCE_SMMfreedomofmovementrestricted9times,allinnon-govt
controlareashttp://bit.ly/2anOmMH

"Ceasefire"inAleppobrokeredbyKerry"Ilovaisk-2"

RussiaPromisesExitCorridorsforRebels,CiviliansinAleppo(WSJ)

RussiaandtheSyriangovernmentwillallowoppositionfightersandcivilianstoleave

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/30/201608:30:07AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-29]RUAirstrikes
Subject:
['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUofUnderminingUAPeacePlan...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,July29,20169:02PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-29]RU
Airstrikes['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUofUnderminingUAPeace
Plan...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at12:00AM
Subject:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-
29]RUAirstrikes['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUof
UnderminingUAPeacePlanDTRUResetIdeasBackedbyNation'sSC..[PC]DNCHackerDIDworkforRU..[ANT/F]
RUDuma&VolynRUtrollswithnewtasksAmericanswhothinkVladisOKRUPromisesExitCorridorsforRebs/Civiliansin
Aleppo[asktheUAsoldiersinIlovaiskaboutthat]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at12:49PM
Subject:FPIConferenceCallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections
To:walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIConferenceCallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections

Yesterday,FPIhostedaconferencecalltodiscussRussianinterferenceinforeignelections,toincludeitsreportedhackoftheDemocratic
NationalCommittee.ThespeakersonthecallwereDavidJ.KrameroftheMcCainInstitute,PatrikMaldreofRetelPartners,andHannahThoburn
oftheHudsonInstitute.FPIbelievesthatthefollowinginsightssharedbytheexpertswillbeespeciallyusefultolawmakersandtheirstaffaswell
asallthoseinunderstandingtheimplicationsofRussiascyberactivitiesandinterferenceinforeignelections.

AfullrecordingoftheconferencecallisalsoavailableontheFPIwebsite.
RussianCyberActivities

Russiahasbeenreallydevelopingoffensivecybercapabilitiesformanyyears.Thesethreatgroups,manysecuritycompaniesfollowthese,
obviouslytheintelligenceagenciesaswell.Theyreallyconsistofprofessional,veryskilledpractitionerswhosedayjobistocarryoutthese
attacks.Theyreceivespecificordersonwhichinstitutionstotargetandwhatkindofinformationisneeded.PatrikMaldre

Thisparticularthreatactorhasbeenattackingavarietyofcountries.ItwasthesameFancyBearmalwareusedintheUkrainecentralelection
commissionservers,FrenchTVattacks,alotofdifferentattackshavebeenassociatedwiththis.Thesearethreatactorsthatareconducting
multipleoperationsatthesametime.Theirmalwaremightbepresentindozensifnothundredsoforganizationsatthemoment.Butitsawhole
differentstorywhentheystartusingthistoovertlyattackanelectioncycle.PatrikMaldre

AverylargeportionoftheUkrainianpowergridwasdisabledbyamalwareattackjustlastwinter.Sothesearethekindsofthingsthathavebeen
happening,andtheyhaventreallymadeitintotheU.S.publicconsciousness,butwerenowstartingtoseethisisbecomingveryrelevanttothe
survivalandthehealthyoperationofourowndemocracy.HannahThoburn

ImplicationsoftheDNCHack

Tosendthesedocumentsorthisinformationtomediaoutletsortopublishthempubliclysignalsanintentnotjusttoknowandunderstand
thingsaboutthepoliticalprocess,butcruciallytoplayanactiveroleinit.Withthisdisclosure,theDNChackreallytransitionedfromespionage
intotherealmofinfluenceoperations.PatrikMaldre

Whatweveseeninthislatestcaseiswellbeyondgatheringintelligence.ThisisanefforttoataminimumdisrupttheU.S.politicalsystem,the
presidentialcampaign.PossiblythegoalistoembarrassonecandidateorsupportanotherbutIagreewithPatrikthatthisisanattackonthe
Americanpoliticalsystem,itsnotanattackontheDNC,itcouldhavebeenanattackontheRNC,itcouldvebeenanattackonanybody.
DavidKramer

TheRussianMindset

RussiareallyaimstoweakenanddestabilizetheU.S.anddividethetransatlanticinstitutionsandalliancesthatbindustogetherandsoitsreally
nosecretatthispointthatRussiahasincorporatedsignalsintelligenceandcybercapabilitiesintothebroaderarsenalthatitusestoachieve
thesegoals.PatrikMaldre

[Russians]say,lookyouremeddlinginourelectionssoweregoingtodothesamethingtoyou.ItsveryinterestingbecausewhattheRussians
conceiveofasU.S.meddlingisentirelydifferent.Itisessentiallysupportingafoundationthatmonitorselectionsandcallsforfreeandfair
elections.ThatstheRussianideaofU.S.meddlinginanelection.HannahThoburn

WeneedtounderstandthekindofRussiaweretalkingaboutthesedays,whichisaRussiathatwasverypleasedtoseetheflowofrefugees
intoEurope,exacerbatingarefugeecrisisthereaRussiathathassupportedthemurderousAssadregimeinSyria,alongwithIranaRussiathat
hasinvadeditsneighbors,Ukrainestartingin2014,Georgia,2008.Theydemonizeus,theyvilifyus,theythreatenus.Theytalkaboutusing
nuclearweapons.Theybuzzouraircraftandourships.Andsothisisnotabenignregimeintheleast.AndIthinkwehavetolookatthishacking
incidentagainstthatbackdrop,thatthisisjustthelatestofmanyverydisturbingdevelopmentsweveseencomingoutofMoscow.David
Kramer

RussianInterferenceinEuropeanElections

ItisreallyincentralandEasternEuropethattheyvereallybeenabletopracticeandhonethesetechniquesandyourenowstartingtoseethat
theyrecomfortableenoughwiththemtostarttoexportthemtootherpartsoftheworld.HannahThoburn

[Russia]hasprovideddirectopensupportforMarineLePeninFranceinthehopethatthatsupportwouldboostherstandinginFrance.It
supportedforcesinGreeceandItaly.SoRussianinterferenceinothercountriespoliticsandelectionsisnotanewphenomenonandithasmoved
beyondjustRussiasimmediateborders.DavidKramer

IvearguedforalongtimethatPutinsgreatestexportiscorruption.Butinordertoexportit,wehavetoimportit.Andsoweinthewestneedto
doamuchbetterjobofcleaningupourownsystems,ofrestoringasenseofshameandhonourthatseemtohavedisappeared.Itshouldntbe
acceptabletoopenlytakeRussianmoney,itshouldntbeacceptabletocovertlytakeRussianmoneyandyetthatdoesseemtobehappeningin
oursystems.DavidKramer

PotentialWesternResponses
Forstarters,assumingweareconfidentthatRussiawasbehindthishackingweshouldpubliclysayso.Beyondthatthereareanumberof
optionsthatcouldincludeacyberattackofsomesort,itcouldincludegoingafterindividualsintheseagencies,sanctioningthem,makingsure
alliesareonboard.DavidKramer

TheUSgovernmentandotherwesterngovernmentsreallywanttokeeptheir[offensivecyber]capabilitiesunderwrapsjustbecauseassoonas
thetechnicalcharacteristicsofthesecapabilitiesareknown,opponentscantakeactiontoreducetheireffectivenessormakethemnotworkatall.
Thereareoffensivecapabilitiestouse,thequestionis,doesthisparticularcasegetoverthethresholdneededtotriggeraresponse.Patrik
Maldre

RussiansgetmostoftheirnewsandinformationfromTVandsotakingovertelevisionwasthewayforPutintomakesurehehadcontrolover
thewayRussiansreceivetheirnewsandinformation.We,inmyview,shouldnotengageincounter-propaganda,weshouldsupportfact-based
journalismtohelpgetnewsandinformationinsideRussiaaswelltoRussian-speakingpopulationsandcountriesalongRussiasbordertolet
themknowwhatsreallyhappeninginsidetheircountry.DavidKramer

AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative

FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromotean
activeU.S.foreignpolicycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthe
challengesofthe21stcentury,andstrengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisled
byExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoardofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visit
ourwebsiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at2:03PM
Subject:FW:R'sairstrikesinS[yria][ED:Alsonotethe'humanitarianconvoysRUisproposingforAleppo..callit
"DONBASII"]
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

From:ThomasHHenriksen[mailto:thomash@stanford.edu]
Sent:Friday,July29,201610:34AM
To:JohnBDunloppaulroderickgregory
Subject:R'sairstrikesinS

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russianairstrikessyriajune18july132016

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: June 18 July 13, 2016


...
www.understandingwar.org

Russia set conditions for the proposal through a calculated expansion


and subsequent tapering of its air campaign throughout June and July
2016.
---------Forwardedmessage----------

From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at3:20PM
Subject:Ukraine:RFE/RL,NYT
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

Twomoreforyourweekendreadingwellworthit.

RFE/RL
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-us-diplomats-russia-undermining-peace-plan/27888327.html

July29,2016

U.S.DiplomatsAccuseRussiaOfUnderminingUkrainePeacePlan

byRobertCoalson

TwotopU.S.diplomatsworkingtoresolvetheconflictineasternUkrainehaveaccusedRussiaofcontinuingtosupplyseparatist
fighterswithfuelandweaponsandcreatinga"deterioratingsecuritysituation"intheregionthatisasbadasitwasayearago.

AmbassadorDanielBaer,headoftheU.S.missiontotheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),andU.S.
AmbassadortoUkraineGeoffreyPyattmadethestatementsduringaJuly29telephonicpressbriefingfromVienna.

ThebriefingcameonedayaftertheheadoftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)inUkraine,ErtugrulApakan,and
OSCEspecialrepresentativeonUkraineMartinSajdikbriefedtheOSCEPermanentCouncilonthesituation.

BaersaidtheUnitedStatesandotherOSCEmemberswereincreasinglyconcernedbywhattheyseeasadisconnectbetween
Russia'swordsanditsactionsregardingtheconflict.

"Weseecontinuedresupplyofweaponsandfightersweseecontinuedprovocationstokeeptheconflictgoingweseecontinued
restrictionsoftheSMManditsmonitorsweseecontinuedshoot-downsofSMMUAVs[drones]aftertheyhaveseenRussian
heavyweaponryinplaceswhereitshouldn'tbe,"Baersaid.

"Andso,themessagethatwasdeliveredtotheRussianFederationyesterdaybymany,manyparticipatingstatesinthe[OSCE]
PermanentCouncilisthatitistimetomatchyourwordswithaction."

Pyattstressedthesamepoint,sayingthatRussia'scontinuedmaterialsupportofseparatistfightersineasternUkrainewas"driving
theconflict."

"Ratherthanterminatingthisconflict,Russia'sactionsarehavingtheeffectofescalatingitonceagain,"Pyattsaid.

TheambassadorsalsoaccusedRussiaoffailingtoimplementtheMinskagreementthatwassignedinSeptember2014andwhich,
alongwithasecondagreementsignedinFebruary2015,issupposedtoprovidearoadmapforresolvingthecrisis.

PyattsaidRussiahadfailedtowithdrawtroopsandequipment,fullyimplementthecease-fireenvisionedundertheMinsk
agreements,andreleaseallhostages.

BaersaidthattheMinskaccordshad"allofthestepsthatarenecessary"toendtheconflict.

"Wehaveknownwhatneedstobedonefortwoyearsnow,"hesaid."Theproblemisnotinsolvingsomesortofdifficultpuzzle.
Thisisnotapuzzle.Theproblemispoliticalwill."

BaeraddedthattheU.S.positiononnotrecognizingRussia's2014annexationoftheUkrainianBlackSeapeninsulaofCrimea
remainedunchanged.

"Apointthatwehavemadehere[attheOSCE]whenRussianrepresentativessaytheywanttohaveaconversationaboutthe
futureofEuropeansecurityisthatanyconversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecuritywillhavetostartwithCrimea,"Baer
said.

AccordingtotheUnitedNations,morethan9,400peoplehavebeenkilledinfightingbetweenUkrainiansecurityforcesand
Russia-backedmilitantsineasternUkrainesinceApril2014.

TheNewYorkTimes
Trump'sRussiaResetIdeasAlarmingAllies,ManyinUS

[ED:ButtheAPcrowdwritingthearticleapparentlythinksthattheideasareworthyofconsideration]

JUSTLOOKATTHEFOLLOWINGQUOTEFROMTHEARTICLE.Ol'SteveCohen,furtherleftthanBernie,is
complimentarytotheDonald!!W'atBUpWit'T'at????.:

ButStevenCohen,professoremeritusofRussianstudiesatPrincetonandNewYorkUniversity,creditsTrumpforhoming
inonissuesthatareripefordiscussion.HesaidthatwhileTrumptalks"elliptically"and"justcan'twonk,"theGOP
nominee"inhisownwayseemstobeadvocatingdetente,"whichCohenseesasanadmirablegoal.

Cohensaidit'stimeforcriticstostopusing"McCarthyite"languagetodemonizeTrumpandhaveaserious
discussionabouttheissueshe'sraising.

"It'scalledadebate,"saidCohen."You'resupposedtohavetheminapresidentialcampaign."

ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJULY29,2016,3:04P.M.E.D.T.
Continuereadingthemainstory

PHILADELPHIADonaldTrump'sflurryofoffhandremarksandabruptzingersonRussiapraisingVladimirPutin,
dismissingNATOhavejoltedtheworld,nottomentiontheU.S.presidentialcampaign.

WithRussia'sbehaviorrattlingnervesintheU.S.andabroad,theRepublicanpresidentialnomineeisaccusedofcozyinguptoa
"dictator."OfthreateningtheveryunderpinningsofAmerica'srelationshipwithEurope.Andofnaivet.

Yetforallthat,Trump'swordsareconsistentwithsomelong-heldU.S.views,manyexpertssay.TheideaoffosteringU.S.-
Russiancooperationisn'toutlandishafterall,HillaryClintontriedto"reset"relationswithRussiaassecretaryofstate.Andpast
U.S.administrationsofbothpartieshavequietlycomplainedthatotherNATOmembersshouldpaytheirsharetothealliance.

It'sreallyTrump'swayofexpressinghisviewsthathasshockedmanyforeignpolicyexperts.

OnWednesday,TrumpofferedthisvisionforrosierU.S.-Russianrelations:

"IwouldtreatVladimirPutinfirmlybutthere'snothingthatIcanthinkofthatI'dratherdothanhaveRussiafriendlyasopposed
tothewaytheyarerightnowsothatwecangoandknockoutISIStogetheralongwithotherpeopleandwithothercountries,"
hesaid."Wouldn'titbeniceifweactuallygotalongwithpeople?"

TrumpalsopraisedtheRussianpresidentforhaving"betterleadershipqualities"thanPresidentBarackObamaandindicatedhe'd
considerliftingsanctionsagainstMoscowandrecognizingRussia'sannexationofCrimea.

AsforNATO,TrumpsaidthebasicideaofthealliancewasOKbutthat"it'sgottobemodernized.Andcountriesthatwe're
protectinghavetopaywhatthey'resupposedtobepaying."

Daysearlier,hesuggestedthathewoulddecidewhethertoprotectNATOalliesagainstRussianaggressionbasedonwhetherthey
had"fulfilledtheirobligations"financially.

AndhisoffhandinvitationforRussiatohelpunearththedeletedemailsfromClinton'sStateDepartmentyearsappearedtoviolate
acardinalruleagainstforeignmeddlinginU.S.politics.

Foreignpolicyexpertsofallstripes"areleftslack-jawed"byTrump'spronouncements,saidDerekChollet,asenioradviseratthe
GermanMarshallFundandformerPentagonofficialintheObamaadministration.

"Helooksattheworldsolelythroughtheprismofbusinesstransactions,talkingaboutalliesasifthey'reAtlanticCitycontractors
thathecanbilk,"saidChollet,whospokeoutinfavorofClintonduringherDemocraticprimarycampaignagainstSen.Bernie
Sanders.

ButStevenCohen,professoremeritusofRussianstudiesatPrincetonandNewYorkUniversity,creditsTrumpforhominginon
issuesthatareripefordiscussion.HesaidthatwhileTrumptalks"elliptically"and"justcan'twonk,"theGOPnominee"inhisown
wayseemstobeadvocatingdetente,"whichCohenseesasanadmirablegoal.

Cohensaidit'stimeforcriticstostopusing"McCarthyite"languagetodemonizeTrumpandhaveaseriousdiscussionaboutthe
issueshe'sraising.

"It'scalledadebate,"saidCohen."You'resupposedtohavetheminapresidentialcampaign."

AndyetDemocratsarenottheonlyonestorecoilatTrump'sremarks.SenateMajorityLeaderMitchMcConnell,amongother
topRepublicans,swiftlyexpresseddisagreementwiththenomineeandpromisedthatotherNATOmemberscancountontheU.S.
todefendthem.

DavidKramer,whowasaStateDepartmentofficialintheGeorgeW.Bushadministration,saidheandmanyotherforeignpolicy
thinkerssee"aRussiathatposesathreat.He(Trump)seesaleaderinVladimirPutinwhohethinkshecandevelopagood
relationshipwith."

Trump'scommentaboutCrimeaandRussiansanctions,saysKramer,sent"terriblesignalsandwillbeinterpretednotonlyasa
betrayalbytheUnitedStatesofouralliesbutasrewardingaggressivebehaviorbyRussia."

Inthe2012presidentialcampaign,thedynamicoverRussiawasswitched:RepublicannomineeMittRomneythencriticized
ObamaforbeingtooaccommodatingtowardRussia.AndDemocratsweretheonesfaultingRomneyforsayingthatRussiawas
America's"No.1geopoliticalfoe."

Obama'searlyhopeforthatresetwithMoscowhadlargelyevaporatedevenbeforeRussia's2014annexationofUkraine's
CrimeanpeninsulaanditsmilitaryinterventionineasternUkraine,whichunnervedcountriesonNATO'seasternflankthatfearthey
alsomaybetargetsofRussianintimidationoraggression.

Againstthatbackdrop,Trump'sremarksraisingdoubtsabouthonoringU.S.NATOcommitmentscreatedaninternationaluproar.

JulianneSmith,aformerdeputynationalsecurityadvisertoVicePresidentJoeBiden,saidTrumpdoesn'tseemtograspthe
complexitiesoftheU.S.relationshipwithRussia,reflectingbothinexperienceandalackofstrongadvisers.

"It'snotaquestionofwhetherPutinisgoodorbad,"shesaid."It'sabouthandlingaverydelicateandvolatilesituationthatcango
sourveryquickly."

YetothersnotethateventhecurrentObamaadministrationdependsonRussiaandseeksitshelpwithmanyworldcrises.

InSyria,despitedeepmutualfrustration,theU.S.andRussiaaretryingtoworktogethertoendafive-yearcivilwarthathasledto
globalterrorismfears.They'reevendiscussingamilitaryallianceagainsttheIslamicStategroup.CooperationextendstotheIran
nucleardeal,NorthKoreaandmore.

___

AssociatedPresswritersJillColvininToledo,Ohio,andBradleyKlapper,RobertBurnsandDebRiechmanninWashington
contributedtothisreport.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at7:30PM
Subject:'DNCHacker'Unmasked:HeReallyWorksforRussia,ResearchersSay-Slashdot
To:

http://it.slashdot.org/story/16/07/26/180204/dnc-hacker-unmasked-he-really-works-for-russia-researchers-say

ThehackerwhoclaimedtocompromisetheDNCsworehewasRomanian,butnewinvestigationshowsheworkeddirectlyfor
RussiaPresidentVladimirPutin'sgovernmentinMoscow.TheDailyBeastreports:Thehackerwhoclaimstohavestolen
emailsfromtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandprovidedthemtoWikiLeaksisactuallyanagentoftheRussian
governmentandpartofanorchestratedattempttoinfluenceU.S.mediacoveragesurroundingthepresidentialelection,a
securityresearchgroupconcludedonTuesday.Theresearchers,atArlington,Va.-basedThreatConnect,tracedtheself-
describedRomanianhackerGuccifer2.0backtoanInternetserverinRussiaandtoadigitaladdressthathasbeenlinked
inthepasttoRussianonlinescams.Farfrombeingasingle,sophisticatedhacker,Guccifer2.0ismorelikelyacollection
ofpeoplefromthepropagandaarmoftheRussiangovernmentmeanttodeflectattentionawayfromMoscowastheforce
behindtheDNChacksandleaksofemails,theresearchersfound.ThreatConnectisthefirstknowngroupofexpertsto
linktheself-proclaimedhackertoaRussianoperation,amidstanongoingFBIinvestigationandapresidential
campaignrockedbythereleaseofDNCemailsthathaveembarrassedseniorpartyleadersandinflamedintraparty
tensionsturningtheDemocraticNationalConvention.Theemailsrevealedthatpartyinsidersplottedwaystoundermine
Sen.BernieSanders'presidentialbid.Theresearchersattheaforementionedsecurityfirmarebasingtheirconclusiononthree
signals:thehackerusedRussiancomputerstoeditPDFfiles,healsousedRussianVPN--andotherinternetinfrastructurefrom
thecountry,andthathewasunabletospeakRomanian.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at6:09PM
Subject:RUtorecognizeVolhyniaasgenocide/RUpro-Trumptrolls/TheAmericanswhothinkPutinisntsobad(WP)/+

To:

[ED:TheDumaDeclarationontheVolynTragedyas'Genocide'isproofpositivethatthecurrentPL-UAcontroversy
hasa"RUpoliticaltechnologicaltail"attachedbutmorepiquantisthegallofKremlin.givenitssilenceaboutthe
HOLODOMORforover80years]

RussianStateDumaalsosuggeststorecognizeVolhyniaMassacreasgenocide

http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-state-duma-also-suggests-to-recognize-volhynia-massacre-as-genocide-706421.html
"TheStateDumaoftheFederalAssemblyoftheRussianFederationsendsitssincerecondolencestothePolish
peopleinconnectionwithanationaltragedy,andexpressesitsprofoundsolidaritywiththeSejmoftheRepublicof
PolandontheissueofrecognitionofthecrimescommittedbytheUkrainiannationalistsontheterritoryofVolynas
genocide,"

ItlookslikeRussiahiredinternettrollstoposeaspro-TrumpAmericans

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-internet-trolls-and-donald-trump-2016-7

TheAmericanswhothinkVladimirPutinisntsobad

ByAdamTaylorJuly28

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/28/the-americans-who-think-vladimir-putin-isnt-so-bad/
...
FionaHill,anexpertonRussiawhoco-authoredabiographyofPutin,saysthatonarecentU.S.booktourshewasstruckby
howpositivepeoplewereaboutPutin."There'salotofadmirationforPutin,"HillsaidThursday."It'sgrudging,butpeopleseehim
asoneofthoselarger-than-lifecharacters."
...
AmorerecentpollhasevensuggestedthatPutinhaslowernegativeratingsthanTrumporClinton.Evenifplentyof
peopledonotlikePutin,it'spossiblethatnotthatmanyviewhimasamajorthreat.InaGalluppollfromFebruary,just39percent
ofAmericanswerefoundtoviewRussia'smilitarypowerasacriticalthreat.Thiswasfarbehindthetop-rankedfear,international
terrorism,which79percentofAmericanslistedasacriticalthreat.(Also,73percentrankedcyberterrorism"theuseof
computerstocausedisruptionorfearinsociety"asacriticalthreat.)

Anecdotally,foryears,therehavebeensignsthatasmallyetvocalsegmentofU.S.societyviewedPutininapositive
lightor,attheleast,thoughthisnegativereputationwasoverblownorsomehowhypocritical.StephenF.Cohen,awriterfor
theNationmagazine,isoneexampleofaleft-leaningjournalistwhohaspushedbackagainstcriticismofPutinoftendrawinghis
owncriticsintheprocess.

WhathasbeenmoreobviouslyapparentistheviewofPutinfromsomecornersoftherightwing.Attimes,thetonehasappeared
tobesardonic,suchaswhenright-wingbloggingstarMattDrudgelabeledhim"theleaderofthefreeworld"in2013,ormore
genuinelycontemplative,suchaswhenconservativewriterPatBuchananwroteacolumnaskingwhetherPutinwas"oneofus?"
...
...Putin'simagehasbeencraftedbyyearsoffocusgroupsandhighlypaidPRconsultants.
...

JacekSaryusz-Wolski

Competitioncommissioner@vestagerselectivelytough,hardonWesterncompanies,weakonGazprom'sgangster
conduct

http://www.politico.eu/article/vestager-gets-mugged-by-brussels-reality/

PaulNiland

Thanks@OSCE_SMMfor(finally)statingwhichsideisresponsibleforcertain#Minskobligationbreaches.
OSCE

LatestfromOSCEmonitors@Ukraine:@OSCE_SMMfreedomofmovementrestricted9times,allinnon-govt
controlareashttp://bit.ly/2anOmMH

"Ceasefire"inAleppobrokeredbyKerry"Ilovaisk-2"

RussiaPromisesExitCorridorsforRebels,CiviliansinAleppo(WSJ)

RussiaandtheSyriangovernmentwillallowoppositionfightersandcivilianstoleave

From: DavidKramer<djkramerwdc@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/30/201608:00:39AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:impassionedneoconcrusader(akaDavidKramer)

Icanretirenow!

SentfrommyiPhone

OnJul30,2016,at9:02AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/the-new-mccarthys-attack-trump-russia-17188

TheNewMcCarthysAttackTrumpon
Russia
<mccarthy.jpg>

DonaldTrumpbringsmanydefectstohisnewroleastheGOPstandard-bearer.Suchdefectshaveled
Trumpsopponentstomakeallegationsthatrangefromhystericaltosleazy.Intheformercategoryare
thegrowingnumberofspeechesandarticlesthatimply(andinsomecasesoutrightassert)thatTrumpis
aclosetNazi.InthelattercategoryaretheevenmorerapidlymountingallegationsthatheisaRussian
sycophant,ifnotaRussianagent.ThatsmearconstitutesanewMcCarthyism.Anditisespeciallyironic
thatliberalDemocrats,theprincipalvictimsoftheoriginalMcCarthyismduringtheearlyColdWar,are
themainperpetratorsthistime.

ThethemeofTrumpasaRussianagent(aSiberiancandidate)receivedamajorboostfollowinghis
commentsaboutthemassivehackingoftheDemocraticNationalCommitteese-mails.Trumpopined
thatiftheRussianswereengagedinsuchsystematiccyberespionage,itreflectedalackofrespectfor
thecurrentpoliticalleadershipoftheUnitedStates.ThatisafamiliarGOPtrope,andanespecially
unfaironeinthiscase.Nationswithgoodcyberespionagecapabilitiesspyonalltargetstheydeem
relevant,andhavedonesoformanyyears.TheUnitedStateshasevenbeencaughtspyingonclose
alliessuchasGermany.

Trumpsstatementmighthavepassedwithminimalnotice,buthethenaddedsarcasticallythatifthe
Russianshaddoneso,hehopedthattheyhadHillaryClintonsthirtythousandmissinge-mails.His
criticsimmediatelyspunthatcommenttosuggestthathewasurgingRussiatoundermineAmericas
security.Thatisapreposterousinterpretation.IfanyoneputU.S.securityatrisk,itwasClinton,who
hadusedaprivatee-mailserverwithouttherobustsecurityfeaturesofgovernmentservers.Andsince
shehasalreadytestifiedthatthereisnothinginthosemissinge-mailsofasensitivenature,howcould
RussiaspossessionofsuchworthlessitemsdamageAmericassecurity?

NowtheWashingtonPostreportsthattwodozenGOPforeign-policyhawkshaveinditedaletterto
congressionalleadersdemandinganinvestigationintothehackingofDNCemails.Theysaythatthisis
notapartisanissuebutanassaultontheintegrityoftheentireAmericanpoliticalprocess.Itistrue
thatthesignershavedifferentreasonsforwritingCongress.SomelikeRet.Gen.MichaelHaydenhave
alongstandingconcernaboutcyberattacksfromabroad.Buttheanimatingspiritbehindtheletteris
DavidKramer,animpassionedneoconcrusader.AnothersigneristheprominentneoconElliott
Abrams.Theoverallimpressionleftbehindbytheletteristhatitpreciselywhatthesignersallegeitisnot
adefactoattempttodamagetheTrumpcampaign.ThefactisthattheFBIisalreadyinvestigatingthe
DNCemailhack.Thereisnocogentreasonforacongressionalinvestigation,otherthananattemptto
politicizetheevent.

ThebarrageagainstTrumpforthatcommentisjustpartofalargeroffensive.Trumphasangered
advocatesofanewColdWaragainstRussiaonnumerousoccasions.Hehasstatedthathebelieveshis
administrationcouldgetalongwellwithVladimirPutin.HequestionedNATOsexpansiontoRussias
doorstepandhintedthatthealliancesmilitarymaneuversinEasternEuropemightbeneedlessly
provocative.HehasstatedthattheEuropeancountries,ratherthantheUnitedStates,shoulddealwith
anyproblemstheymighthaveregardingRussiasactionsinUkraine.Thoseandothercommentshave
causedcriticstobrandTrumpasaPutinstooge.

Pages
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/30/201602:40:02AM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Subject: kindawhatIwasgettingatonthephone(althoidon'tmuchcareforthisguy)

Thisisanextraordinarypoliticalmoment.AnyreasonableRepublicanpresidential
contenderotherthanTrumpprobablywouldbebeatingClintonhandily.Any
reasonableDemocraticcontenderotherthanClintonprobablywouldbebeatingTrump
handily.Theparties,intheirwisdom,havechosentheuntrustedagainsttheunstable,
theuninspiringagainsttheunfit.Takeyourpick,andtakeyourchances.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-choice-between-the-uninspiring-and-the-unfit/2016/07/29/9fab8178-55aa-11e6-
b7de-dfe509430c39_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/29/201609:53:09AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-Russiacooperationin
Subject:
Syriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMF...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,July28,201610:10PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-Russia
cooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMF...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at1:09AM
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:
AttemptatU.S.-RussiacooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMFUNNY]BBC
News:RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Date:Thu,Jul28,2016at8:18PM
Subject:Fwd:Posted:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Walter-ofpossibleinterest.

Best,

David

SentfrommyiPhone

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:BenjaminSoloway<benjamin.soloway@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:July28,2016at7:19:09PMEDT
To:Shadow<Shadow@foreignpolicy.com>,Shadowlist<Shadowlist@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:Posted:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage

RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
BYDAVIDJ.KRAMER

JULY28,2016-7:17PM


ForgetwhetherRussiashackingoftheDemocraticNationalCommitteecomputersystemandreleaseofthe
committeesemailstoWikiLeaksweredesignedtobenefitRepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump.Trytooverlook,
temporarilyatleast,thecontentofthoseemails,whichhaveinfuriatedBernieSanderssupporters.Putasidepartisanpolitics
forjustonemomentandstoptothinkwhathashappened:AccordingtopreliminaryassessmentsbytheU.S.government
andprivateanalysts,Russianintelligenceagenciesbrokeintothecomputersystemofoneofthetwomainpoliticalpartiesin
theUnitedStatesandreleasedwhattheystolethroughWikiLeaks.

Suchanactgoeswaybeyondmereintelligencegathering.ItwasclearlydesignedtohurttheUnitedStatesanddamageour
credibility.ItmayalsohavebeenmeanttoundermineDemocraticpresidentialnomineeHillaryClintonRussianPresident
VladimirPutin,ashasbeenreported,isnotahugefanofher,basedonhisaccusationsofherresponsibilityforprotestsin
RussiainDecember2011.ThehackmayhavebeenorchestratedtoboostTrump.Infact,itmaywellbeacombinationof
thesethreethings.ButthebottomlineisthattheRussianshaveattackednottheDNC,orClinton,buttheUnitedStates,our
politicalsystem,andourpresidentialelectioncampaign,period!

Tobeclear,hackingintotheDNCsemailsisnotaone-offmove.Russialaunchedacyber-attackagainstEstoniain2007and
triedtomesswiththeresultsofUkraineselectionin2014.TheKremlinstrollswreakhavoconWesternjournalistsand
websites.

ButRussianactionsgowellbeyondtherealmoftechnology.Withinthepasteightyears,Russiahasinvadedtwoofits
neighbors:Ukrainestartingin2014andGeorgiain2008,andillegallyannexedCrimea.Thecountryillegallymaintainsa
trooppresenceintheseparatistregionsofSouthOssetia,AbkhaziainGeorgia,andinMoldovasTransnistria.Itdoes
everythingitcantopreventitsneighborsfrommovingclosertoEuropebycorrupting,destabilizingand,ifnecessary,
invadingthem.Successful,reform-oriented,democraticneighbors,especiallyUkraine,afterall,couldbedangerous
alternativemodelstothesystemPutinoversees.

TogetherwithIran,thePutinregimehasintervenedmilitarilyinSyriatopropupthemurderousregimeofBasharal-Assad.
DespiteSecretaryofStateJohnKerrysfutileefforts,theUnitedStatesandRussiadonotworktowardscommoninterestsin
theMiddleEast.Instead,RussiabombssitesinSyriathattheUnitedStateshasurgedittoavoid.Russiahassolddangerous
missiledefensesystemstoIranandisstrikingupnewfriendshipswithlike-mindedregimesintheregion.

RussiarecklesslybuzzesAmericanandNATOaircraftandships,andthreatensEuropeannationsiftheyhostNATOsmissile
defensesystem.ItregularlydemonizestheWestandtheUnitedStatesinparticular,allegingthatwearethegreatestdanger
toRussiaandconjuringupnonsensicalWesternconspiracytheoriesagainsttheKremlin.Andifallthatwerenotenough,
PutinhaslaunchedtheugliestcrackdownonhumanrightsinsideRussiaindecades,withopponentsharassed,arrested,
evenkilledNGOscloseddownminoritygroupsdeniedtheirbasicrightsandRussianorphansdeniedlovinghomesinthe
UnitedStatesbecauseofPutinsspiteovertheMagnitskylegislation.

AftereachexampleofegregiousRussiangovernmentbehavior,Iaskmyself:Whendowesayenoughisenough?Howmany
moreUkrainiansmustdiethenumberisapproaching10,000duetoRussianaggression,beforewesaymoresanctionsare
warranted,notfewerachangethatTrumphashintedhemightsupport?HowmanymorecountriesmustPutininvade
beforewetreathimandhisregimeastheseriousthreatitis?Andhowmuchwillwelethiminterferewithourownelection
beforewedrawaline?

WhetherPutinisoperatingoutofstrengthorweaknessisaninterestingquestionbuttoalargedegreebesidethepoint.
Thetrackrecordcitedaboveisenoughproofoftheharmhecanandiscausing.Putinmaybetakinghiscountryoffacliff,
butweneedtomakesurehedoesnottakeothersplummetingwithhim.

ThisisnotatimetopineforchummyrelationswithPutinitisatimetoshowspineandstrengthandstanduptothedanger
heposes.

Photocredit:SASHAMORDOVETS/GettyImages

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at12:46AM
Subject:BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-RussiacooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

AttemptatU.S.-Russiacooperation
in
Syriasuffersmajorsetbacks
GENEVA/WASHINGTON|BYTOMMILESANDJOHNWALCOTT

RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov(R)shakeshandswithU.S.Secretary
ofStateJohnKerryduringameetinginMoscow,Russia,July15,2016.
REUTERS/SERGEIKARPUKHIN
U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerry'sattempttoelicit
RussianmilitarycooperationinthefightagainstIslamic
StateinSyriasufferedtwopotentiallycripplingblowson
Thursday.
First,theSyrianarmysaidithadcutoffallsupplyroutes
intotheeasternpartofthecityofAleppo-Syria'smost
importantoppositionstronghold-andPresidentBashar
al-Assad'sgovernmentaskedresidentstoleavethecity.
Thatmove,U.S.officialsspeakingonconditionof
anonymitysaidonThursday,appearedtobeaneffortto
pre-emptaU.S.demandthatRussiaandSyriareopena
majorroadintothedividednortherncitybeforetalks
couldbeginoncreatingajointintelligencecenterto
coordinateairattacksagainstIslamicState.
ThenalQaeda'sSyrianbranchannouncedonThursdayit
wasterminatingitsrelationshipwiththeglobalnetwork
createdbyOsamabinLadenandchangingitsnameto
removewhatitcalledapretextbytheUnitedStatesand
othercountriestoattackSyrians.
AlthoughoneU.S.officialcalledit"achangeinname
only,"themovecomplicatestheAmericanproposalto
limittheRussiansandSyrianstotargetingonlyNusra
andIS,nototherrebelgroupssupportedbyWashington
anditsalliesinthecoalitionagainstIslamicState.
"BydisavowingitstiestoalQaeda-which,incidentally,it
didwithalQaeda'sblessing-Nusrahasmadeitharder
toisolateitfrommoremoderategroups,someofwhose
membersmayjoinitnowbecauseit'smorepowerful
thansomeofthegroupstheybelongtonow,"saidthe
official.
U.S.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaid
Washingtonhasbeenclearaboutitsconcernsoverthe
announcementofthehumanitariancorridorandthatits
viewoftheNusraFronthadnotchangeddespiteitsname
change.
"Butwealsoremaincommittedtotheproposalsreached
bytheUnitedStatesandRussiatobetterenforcethe
cessationofhostilitiesinSyriaandprovidethespace
neededforaresumptionofpoliticaltalks.Iffully
implementedingoodfaith,theycanachieveameasure
ofsuccessthathaseludedusthusfar,"Kirbytold
Reuters.
"Asthesecretarymadeclear,however,wearepragmatic
abouttheseefforts,andwewilllooktoRussiatomeetits
commitmentsaswewillmeetours.Thatwillbethe
primary,determiningfactorofsuccesshere,"headded.
FALTERINGPROPOSAL
ThetwinU.S.goalsinSyriahavebeenendingthe
violencethatalreadyhasclaimedsome400,000lives,
accordingtoUnitedNationsestimates,andseekinga
politicalprocesstoreplaceAssad,whomPresident
BarackObamahassaid"mustgo."
ButwhileWashingtonandMoscowhavebothexpressed
hopetheycanfindawaytocooperateagainstIS,Kerry's
proposalwasalreadyintroubleduetothecompeting
objectivesoftheColdWar-erafoesaswellasresistance
fromU.S.militaryandintelligenceofficials.
U.S.officialsquestionedRussianandSyrianclaimsthat
theiraiminevacuatingciviliansfromAleppowastoclear
thewayforhumanitarianassistancetoreachthe
besiegedcity,where200,000-300,000civiliansremain
withonlytwotothreeweeksoffoodonhand.
"Whywouldyouevacuateacitythatyouwantedtosend
humanitarianaidto?"askedoneofficial."Atfirstglance,
thatwouldappeartobeaunilateraleffortbyMoscowand
Assadtopre-emptKerry'sdemandforendingthesiegeof
Aleppobeforestartingnegotiationsonthelargerissues.If
theproposalisn'tdead,itseemstobeprettybadly
wounded."
U.N.SyriaenvoyStaffandeMisturawantsadealassoon
aspossiblesohecanrestartpeacetalkswithinamonth
andaidflowscanresume.
(ReportingbyTomMilesinGenevaandJohnWalcottin
Washington,additionalreportingbyArshadMohammed
editingbyGCrosse)
---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Thu,Jul28,2016at8:50PM
Subject:Editors'Picks
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.

Sponsoredby


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Thursday,July28

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
Today,welookattheNusraFrontsfuture,Franceanti-IslamicStateefforts,and
NorwaysbirthdaygifttoFinland.

4 CONGRATULATIONS,PRESIDENTPUTIN:FPsChristianCaryl

onwhytheKremlinlovesTrump:Readmore



5 AGIFTFITFORFINLAND:Norwayissonicethatitwantstogive
Finlandamountainforitsbirthday,FPsSiobhnO'Grady
writes:Readmore


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arestrengtheningthecountry'seconomy?Anewonlineplatformcan
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heading:Readmore

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----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BardUkrainka<seanachie_holodonika@icloud.com>
Date:Thu,Jul28,2016at7:54PM
Subject:Thisisjusttoofunny:BBCNews:RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid[ED:Anyonesay:"RUSSKIEMYR=CHRISTIAN
TALIBAN"????]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Oh,please,it'sart.

However,thisisnotthefirsttimethatmasterpiecesofarthaverunintoreligiousobjectionstonudityofthehumanform.DuringtheReformation,eventheartworksofthe
greatmasterswerepaintedover.Duringrestorationworkcompletedtheselast20yearsorso,theoriginalpaintingshavebeenrevealed.Nopunintended.

Cher

IsawthisontheBBCNewsAppandthoughtyoushouldseeit:

RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid

Awomancomplainsthatthecopyoftheartist'sDavidharmschildren'sminds.

Disclaimer:TheBBCisnotresponsibleforthecontentofthisemail,andanythingwritteninthisemaildoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheBBC'sviewsoropinions.Pleasenotethatneithertheemail
addressnornameofthesenderhavebeenverified.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/29/201609:53:09AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-Russiacooperationin
Subject:
Syriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMF...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,July28,201610:10PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-Russia
cooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMF...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at1:09AM
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:
AttemptatU.S.-RussiacooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMFUNNY]BBC
News:RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Date:Thu,Jul28,2016at8:18PM
Subject:Fwd:Posted:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Walter-ofpossibleinterest.

Best,

David

SentfrommyiPhone

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:BenjaminSoloway<benjamin.soloway@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:July28,2016at7:19:09PMEDT
To:Shadow<Shadow@foreignpolicy.com>,Shadowlist<Shadowlist@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:Posted:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage

RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
BYDAVIDJ.KRAMER

JULY28,2016-7:17PM


ForgetwhetherRussiashackingoftheDemocraticNationalCommitteecomputersystemandreleaseofthe
committeesemailstoWikiLeaksweredesignedtobenefitRepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump.Trytooverlook,
temporarilyatleast,thecontentofthoseemails,whichhaveinfuriatedBernieSanderssupporters.Putasidepartisanpolitics
forjustonemomentandstoptothinkwhathashappened:AccordingtopreliminaryassessmentsbytheU.S.government
andprivateanalysts,Russianintelligenceagenciesbrokeintothecomputersystemofoneofthetwomainpoliticalpartiesin
theUnitedStatesandreleasedwhattheystolethroughWikiLeaks.

Suchanactgoeswaybeyondmereintelligencegathering.ItwasclearlydesignedtohurttheUnitedStatesanddamageour
credibility.ItmayalsohavebeenmeanttoundermineDemocraticpresidentialnomineeHillaryClintonRussianPresident
VladimirPutin,ashasbeenreported,isnotahugefanofher,basedonhisaccusationsofherresponsibilityforprotestsin
RussiainDecember2011.ThehackmayhavebeenorchestratedtoboostTrump.Infact,itmaywellbeacombinationof
thesethreethings.ButthebottomlineisthattheRussianshaveattackednottheDNC,orClinton,buttheUnitedStates,our
politicalsystem,andourpresidentialelectioncampaign,period!

Tobeclear,hackingintotheDNCsemailsisnotaone-offmove.Russialaunchedacyber-attackagainstEstoniain2007and
triedtomesswiththeresultsofUkraineselectionin2014.TheKremlinstrollswreakhavoconWesternjournalistsand
websites.

ButRussianactionsgowellbeyondtherealmoftechnology.Withinthepasteightyears,Russiahasinvadedtwoofits
neighbors:Ukrainestartingin2014andGeorgiain2008,andillegallyannexedCrimea.Thecountryillegallymaintainsa
trooppresenceintheseparatistregionsofSouthOssetia,AbkhaziainGeorgia,andinMoldovasTransnistria.Itdoes
everythingitcantopreventitsneighborsfrommovingclosertoEuropebycorrupting,destabilizingand,ifnecessary,
invadingthem.Successful,reform-oriented,democraticneighbors,especiallyUkraine,afterall,couldbedangerous
alternativemodelstothesystemPutinoversees.

TogetherwithIran,thePutinregimehasintervenedmilitarilyinSyriatopropupthemurderousregimeofBasharal-Assad.
DespiteSecretaryofStateJohnKerrysfutileefforts,theUnitedStatesandRussiadonotworktowardscommoninterestsin
theMiddleEast.Instead,RussiabombssitesinSyriathattheUnitedStateshasurgedittoavoid.Russiahassolddangerous
missiledefensesystemstoIranandisstrikingupnewfriendshipswithlike-mindedregimesintheregion.

RussiarecklesslybuzzesAmericanandNATOaircraftandships,andthreatensEuropeannationsiftheyhostNATOsmissile
defensesystem.ItregularlydemonizestheWestandtheUnitedStatesinparticular,allegingthatwearethegreatestdanger
toRussiaandconjuringupnonsensicalWesternconspiracytheoriesagainsttheKremlin.Andifallthatwerenotenough,
PutinhaslaunchedtheugliestcrackdownonhumanrightsinsideRussiaindecades,withopponentsharassed,arrested,
evenkilledNGOscloseddownminoritygroupsdeniedtheirbasicrightsandRussianorphansdeniedlovinghomesinthe
UnitedStatesbecauseofPutinsspiteovertheMagnitskylegislation.

AftereachexampleofegregiousRussiangovernmentbehavior,Iaskmyself:Whendowesayenoughisenough?Howmany
moreUkrainiansmustdiethenumberisapproaching10,000duetoRussianaggression,beforewesaymoresanctionsare
warranted,notfewerachangethatTrumphashintedhemightsupport?HowmanymorecountriesmustPutininvade
beforewetreathimandhisregimeastheseriousthreatitis?Andhowmuchwillwelethiminterferewithourownelection
beforewedrawaline?

WhetherPutinisoperatingoutofstrengthorweaknessisaninterestingquestionbuttoalargedegreebesidethepoint.
Thetrackrecordcitedaboveisenoughproofoftheharmhecanandiscausing.Putinmaybetakinghiscountryoffacliff,
butweneedtomakesurehedoesnottakeothersplummetingwithhim.

ThisisnotatimetopineforchummyrelationswithPutinitisatimetoshowspineandstrengthandstanduptothedanger
heposes.

Photocredit:SASHAMORDOVETS/GettyImages

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at12:46AM
Subject:BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-RussiacooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

AttemptatU.S.-Russiacooperation
in
Syriasuffersmajorsetbacks
GENEVA/WASHINGTON|BYTOMMILESANDJOHNWALCOTT

RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov(R)shakeshandswithU.S.Secretary
ofStateJohnKerryduringameetinginMoscow,Russia,July15,2016.
REUTERS/SERGEIKARPUKHIN
U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerry'sattempttoelicit
RussianmilitarycooperationinthefightagainstIslamic
StateinSyriasufferedtwopotentiallycripplingblowson
Thursday.
First,theSyrianarmysaidithadcutoffallsupplyroutes
intotheeasternpartofthecityofAleppo-Syria'smost
importantoppositionstronghold-andPresidentBashar
al-Assad'sgovernmentaskedresidentstoleavethecity.
Thatmove,U.S.officialsspeakingonconditionof
anonymitysaidonThursday,appearedtobeaneffortto
pre-emptaU.S.demandthatRussiaandSyriareopena
majorroadintothedividednortherncitybeforetalks
couldbeginoncreatingajointintelligencecenterto
coordinateairattacksagainstIslamicState.
ThenalQaeda'sSyrianbranchannouncedonThursdayit
wasterminatingitsrelationshipwiththeglobalnetwork
createdbyOsamabinLadenandchangingitsnameto
removewhatitcalledapretextbytheUnitedStatesand
othercountriestoattackSyrians.
AlthoughoneU.S.officialcalledit"achangeinname
only,"themovecomplicatestheAmericanproposalto
limittheRussiansandSyrianstotargetingonlyNusra
andIS,nototherrebelgroupssupportedbyWashington
anditsalliesinthecoalitionagainstIslamicState.
"BydisavowingitstiestoalQaeda-which,incidentally,it
didwithalQaeda'sblessing-Nusrahasmadeitharder
toisolateitfrommoremoderategroups,someofwhose
membersmayjoinitnowbecauseit'smorepowerful
thansomeofthegroupstheybelongtonow,"saidthe
official.
U.S.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaid
Washingtonhasbeenclearaboutitsconcernsoverthe
announcementofthehumanitariancorridorandthatits
viewoftheNusraFronthadnotchangeddespiteitsname
change.
"Butwealsoremaincommittedtotheproposalsreached
bytheUnitedStatesandRussiatobetterenforcethe
cessationofhostilitiesinSyriaandprovidethespace
neededforaresumptionofpoliticaltalks.Iffully
implementedingoodfaith,theycanachieveameasure
ofsuccessthathaseludedusthusfar,"Kirbytold
Reuters.
"Asthesecretarymadeclear,however,wearepragmatic
abouttheseefforts,andwewilllooktoRussiatomeetits
commitmentsaswewillmeetours.Thatwillbethe
primary,determiningfactorofsuccesshere,"headded.
FALTERINGPROPOSAL
ThetwinU.S.goalsinSyriahavebeenendingthe
violencethatalreadyhasclaimedsome400,000lives,
accordingtoUnitedNationsestimates,andseekinga
politicalprocesstoreplaceAssad,whomPresident
BarackObamahassaid"mustgo."
ButwhileWashingtonandMoscowhavebothexpressed
hopetheycanfindawaytocooperateagainstIS,Kerry's
proposalwasalreadyintroubleduetothecompeting
objectivesoftheColdWar-erafoesaswellasresistance
fromU.S.militaryandintelligenceofficials.
U.S.officialsquestionedRussianandSyrianclaimsthat
theiraiminevacuatingciviliansfromAleppowastoclear
thewayforhumanitarianassistancetoreachthe
besiegedcity,where200,000-300,000civiliansremain
withonlytwotothreeweeksoffoodonhand.
"Whywouldyouevacuateacitythatyouwantedtosend
humanitarianaidto?"askedoneofficial."Atfirstglance,
thatwouldappeartobeaunilateraleffortbyMoscowand
Assadtopre-emptKerry'sdemandforendingthesiegeof
Aleppobeforestartingnegotiationsonthelargerissues.If
theproposalisn'tdead,itseemstobeprettybadly
wounded."
U.N.SyriaenvoyStaffandeMisturawantsadealassoon
aspossiblesohecanrestartpeacetalkswithinamonth
andaidflowscanresume.
(ReportingbyTomMilesinGenevaandJohnWalcottin
Washington,additionalreportingbyArshadMohammed
editingbyGCrosse)
---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Thu,Jul28,2016at8:50PM
Subject:Editors'Picks
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.

Sponsoredby


EDITORS'PICKS



Thursday,July28

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
Today,welookattheNusraFrontsfuture,Franceanti-IslamicStateefforts,and
NorwaysbirthdaygifttoFinland.

4 CONGRATULATIONS,PRESIDENTPUTIN:FPsChristianCaryl

onwhytheKremlinlovesTrump:Readmore



5 AGIFTFITFORFINLAND:Norwayissonicethatitwantstogive
Finlandamountainforitsbirthday,FPsSiobhnO'Grady
writes:Readmore


SponsoredContent

WhyisSouthAfricasuchfertilegroundforsuccessfulstart-upsthat
arestrengtheningthecountry'seconomy?Anewonlineplatformcan
answerthisandotherquestionsaboutwheretheRainbowNationis
heading:Readmore

ListenandsubscribetoFPpodcastsoniTunesandStitcher:here.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BardUkrainka<seanachie_holodonika@icloud.com>
Date:Thu,Jul28,2016at7:54PM
Subject:Thisisjusttoofunny:BBCNews:RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid[ED:Anyonesay:"RUSSKIEMYR=CHRISTIAN
TALIBAN"????]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Oh,please,it'sart.

However,thisisnotthefirsttimethatmasterpiecesofarthaverunintoreligiousobjectionstonudityofthehumanform.DuringtheReformation,eventheartworksofthe
greatmasterswerepaintedover.Duringrestorationworkcompletedtheselast20yearsorso,theoriginalpaintingshavebeenrevealed.Nopunintended.

Cher

IsawthisontheBBCNewsAppandthoughtyoushouldseeit:

RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid

Awomancomplainsthatthecopyoftheartist'sDavidharmschildren'sminds.

Disclaimer:TheBBCisnotresponsibleforthecontentofthisemail,andanythingwritteninthisemaildoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheBBC'sviewsoropinions.Pleasenotethatneithertheemail
addressnornameofthesenderhavebeenverified.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/29/201609:08:57AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:PutinstrikesAGAINinanapparentattempttohelphispartnerinBromance:"FBIprobessuspectedBREACHofanotherDemocratic
Subject:
organizationbyRussianHACKERS,"washingtonpost,.com,7/29

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,July29,20169:08AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:PutinstrikesAGAINinanapparentattempttohelphispartnerinBromance:"FBIprobessuspectedBREACHofanother
DemocraticorganizationbyRussianHACKERS,"washingtonpost,.com,7/29

RussiangovernmenthackershavebreachedthecomputersoftheDemocraticCongressional
CampaignCommitteeTheintrusionappearedtobecarriedoutbythesameRussianintelligence
servicethathackedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeearlierthisyearTheFBIisinvestigatingthis
breachaspartofabroaderprobeintohackingofpoliticalorganizations.TheDCCCintrusion
apparentlyispartofamuchbroadercampaignofpoliticalESPIONAGEbytheRussians.

And:MicahelCROWLEY,TRUMPandtheOLGARCH[DmitriRYBOLEVLEV]:[Trump]claimsnotiesto
Russia.Hereshowhemademillionsfromoneofitswealthiestmen,politico.edu,7/2911page
investigativearticle

And:GlennKessler,FactChecker:TrumpsclaimIhaveNOTHINGtodowithRUSSIA,
washingtonpost.com,7/28

TheTrumpOrganizationhaslongbeenintrestedinbusinessinRussiaTrumpsoldamansion[in
PalmBeach]in2008for$95milliontoRussianoligarchDmitryRybolovelev[Donald]TrumpJr.noted
thathetraveledtoRussiasixtimesin18monthsTheTrumporganizationhadpartneredwithAras
Agalarov,thesocalledTrumpofRussiaonaprojectinMoscowin2013thatdidntcometofruition
Theevidenceisclear,fromhisownwordsandthoseofhisassociatesthat[Trump]hasbeeneagerto
dobusinessinRussiaTheTrumpOrganizationsgeneralcounselalsoconfirmedthatthecompany
haslookedatdealsinRussiaWithoutaccesstoTrumpstaxreturnswhichhehasrefuseto
discloseitmaybeimpossibletotellwhetherhecurrentlyhasRussianassets.

And:Model,ultranationalistactivist,and[Putinite]StateDumacandidate[MariaKatasonova]plans
ANTICLINTONrallyoutsideUSembassyinMoscow,Meduza.io,7/28Englished.

Katasonova,whosmadevisitstoseparatistheldEasternUkraineandwrappedherselfinrebelflags,
haspublishedFacebookpostsinRussianandEnglishusingthehashtags#StopHillaryand
#CrookedHillary.

And:USWdiplomats[AmbassadorDaneilbaer,headoftheUSmissiontotheOSCE,andGeoffrey
Pyatt,USambassadortoUkraine]accuseRussiaofUNDERMININGpeaceplan,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27888327.html

And:CRIMEAhasbeenmorecompletelyabsorbedintoRussiaPESKOVannouncedon7/28thatthe
CrimeanFederalDistricthasbeenabsorbedintotheRussianSouthernFederalDistrict(gazeta.ru).

And:DariaLitvinova,PutinsgameofThrones:themeninEPAULETStakeover,
themoscowti9mes.com,7/29

And:DumadeputyDmitriiGUDKOVPutinhascarriedoutaCopdEtat:
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/dgudkov/18099954echo/

And:StanislavBELKOVSKII,Putin[now]trustsonlyhispersonalbodyguards,
http://mr7.ru/articles/136962

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/01/201610:33:14AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UAinNYT+9More
Subject: Stories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREE
AMIGOSFORA...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,August01,20169:24AM
Subject:Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UAinNYT+9
MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREE
AMIGOSFORA...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at12:23PM
Subject:Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT
&UAinNYT+9MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfrom
DailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREEAMIGOSFORANINSANEWORLD(JA-DT-VP)'[ZKinNationalInterestTries
toDissectan'EmergingTrumpDoctrine'
To:

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at12:21PM
Subject:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UA
inNYT+9MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDaily
Beast]THESTORYOF'THREEAMIGOSFORANINSANEWORLD(JA-DT-VP)'[ZKinNationalInterestTriesto
Dissectan'EmergingTrumpDoctrine'
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at11:00AM
Subject:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

ODnote:Readingthearticlesbelow,Icouldnthelpbutreflectthattoday,August1,2016marksthe41stanniversary
ofthesigningoftheHelsinkiFinalAct.WithitsillegaloccupationofCrimeaandaggressionineasternUkraine,
RussiacontinuestoflagrantlyflouteverysingleoneoftheOSCEprinciplesenshrinedinthisseminalagreement,
includingterritorialintegrity,inviolabilityofborders,andsovereignty.Heretofore,everymajorpartypresidential
candidatehassupportedthetenetsfoundintheHelsinkiFinalAct(includingtwoRepublicanBobDoleand
DemocratHillaryClinton-whoasSenatorsatsomepointduringtheirtenuresservedontheHelsinkiCommission).

TheNewYorkTimes
DonaldTrumpGivesQuestionableExplanationofEventsinUkraine

ByDAVIDE.SANGERandMAGGIEHABERMANJULY31,2016(August1,2016printedition)

Continuereadingthemainstory

DonaldJ.TrumponSundayofferedamuddledexplanationofhisviewsaboutthe2014annexationofCrimeaby
RussiaanditscontinuedeffortstoundermineUkrainescontrolofotherpartsofthecountry,andheamplifiedhis
earliersuggestionthat,ifelectedpresident,hemightrecognizeRussiasclaimandendsanctionsagainstit.

InaninterviewwithGeorgeStephanopoulosontheABCNewsprogramThisWeek,Mr.Trumpsaidthatifhewere
president,PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.Hethenbackpedaledwhen
Mr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefornearlytwoyears.

HesnotgoingintoUkraine,O.K.,justsoyouunderstand,Mr.Trump,theRepublicannominee,saidwhentheissue
cameup.HesnotgoingtogointoUkraine,allright?Youcanmarkitdown.Youcanputitdown.Youcantakeit
anywhereyouwant.

Well,hesalreadythere,isnthe?Mr.Stephanopoulosinterrupted.

O.K.,well,hesthereinacertainway,Mr.Trumpreplied.ButImnotthere.YouhaveObamathere.Andfrankly,
thatwholepartoftheworldisamessunderObamawithallthestrengththatyouretalkingaboutandallofthepower
ofNATOandallofthis.Inthemeantime,hesgoingaway.HetaketakesCrimea.

InterpretingMr.TrumpsstatementswhatheunderstandsaboutthecurrentstatusofUkraine,aformerSoviet
republic,andhowitwouldchangeinaTrumpadministrationisdifficultgiventhefracturednatureoftheexchange.
ButtheyweresignificantbecauseMr.TrumphasseeminglyembracedMr.Putin,repeatedlycalledforbetterrelations
withRussiaandshownanunwillingnesstocondemnMr.PutinforhisaggressiveactionsagainstRussiasneighbors
anditscrackdownsonfreedomsathome.

QuestionshavebeenraisedaboutthewateringdownofasectionoftheRepublicanplatformdealingwithUkraine
amidevidencethatwordingtosupportsendinglethalweaponstotheUkrainiangovernmentwasremovedfromthe
text.

Notsince1976,whenPresidentGeraldFordcommittedamajorgaffeinoneofhisdebateswithJimmyCarter,
declaringthatthereisnoSovietdominationofEasternEurope,hastheissueofAmericansupportofEastern
Europeanstates,boththoseinNATOandthoseoutsideit,emergedasamajorpresidentialcampaignissue.Itwas
enormouslyharmfultoMr.Ford,becausehisstatementseemedtosuggestthathedidnotunderstandthegeopolitics
oftheregion,whichhisstaffdenied.

Ukrainebecameaseparatenationin1991afterthefalloftheBerlinWallandthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.It
steadilyflirtedwiththeWestandwithNATO,andRussianofficialsfeareditwouldbepulledoutofMoscowsorbit.
Butapro-Russianpresident,ViktorF.Yanukovych,wasdemocraticallyelectedin2010andremainedinpoweruntil
hewasoustedin2014,ultimatelytakingupexileinRussia.

Mr.Yanukovychhadhiredalobbyingfirmco-foundedbyPaulManafort,nowMr.Trumpscampaignmanager,to
improvehisimageintheWestandavoidpunishmentforveeringtowardRussia.

TheannexationofCrimeain2014wasseenasbothapowergrabandalandgrabbyMr.Putin.Itwascondemned
bytheUnitedStatesanditsEuropeanallies,whichallissuedsanctions.Sincethen,Russiantroops,oftenoutof
uniform,havebeenseen,andsometimeskilled,inRussian-speakingpartsofUkrainewhereapro-Russiainsurgency
hasfoughtthecurrentUkrainiangovernment.
RepublicansinCongresshavelongpressedformoreassistancetoUkrainetopushbackagainstMr.Putin,including
lethalaid.ButallreferencestogivinglethalaidtotheUkrainiangovernmentwerekeptoutofthepartyplatform.

InearlyJuly,adelegateofferedaplatformamendmenttosupportlethalaid.AdelegateforSenatorTedCruzfrom
Texas,DianaDenman,saidinaninterviewthatshehadpushedforinclusionofthelanguage.ButMs.Denmansaidher
amendment,asproposed,wasnevervotedonbecausetwomenwhowereobservingthepanelsdeliberationsmoved
totabletheamendment,andsuggestedthatitbediscussedlater.

TheyopenlysaidtheywerehiredbytheTrumpcampaignandworkedforMr.Trump,Ms.Denmansaid,adding
thatshedidnotrecalltheirnames.InthefinalversionoftheRepublicanplatform,thewordsaboutweaponswere
droppedandreplacedbythetermappropriateassistance.

Mr.TrumpacknowledgedintheABCinterviewthatthelanguagehadbeenwatereddown,buthesaidhehadnothing
todowithit.(Mr.Manaforthasalsosaidhewasunawareofthematter.)

Iwasntinvolvedinthat,Mr.Trumpsaid.Honestly,Iwasnotinvolved.Butheacknowledgedthathissupporters
were.Theysoftenedit,Iheard,butIwasnotinvolved,hesaid.

Mr.TrumpwentontoarguethatMr.PutinmighthavebeenwelcomeinCrimea,sidesteppingtheissueofwhetherthe
Russianleaderhadviolatedthesovereigntyofanotherstatetotaketheterritory,whereRussiahasamajornavalbase.

ThepeopleofCrimea,fromwhatIveheard,wouldratherbewithRussiathanwheretheywere,Mr.Trumpsaid.
Andyouhavetolookatthat,also.

Hewentontosay,Ukraineisamess,butheputtheblameforthatonMr.Obama,notonMr.Putin.

JakeSullivan,thechiefpolicyadvisertoHillaryClinton,Mr.TrumpsDemocraticopponent,saidtheassessment
reinforcedhislackoftemperamentalfitnessforthepresidency.

TodayhegamelyrepeatedPutinsargumentthatRussiawasjustifiedinseizingthesovereignterritoryofanother
countrybyforce,Mr.Sullivansaid.Thisisscarystuff.Butitshouldntsurpriseus.

FollowDavidE.Sanger@SangerNYTandMaggieHaberman@maggieNYTonTwitter.

BarryMeiercontributedreporting.

TheWashingtonPost
TrumpsuggestsUSacceptRussiasannexationofCrimea

ByAssociatedPress

August1at3:24AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-suggests-us-accept-russias-annexation-of-crimea/2016/07/31/fc7f14f6-576b-
11e6-8b48-0cb344221131_story.html

WASHINGTONRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpissuggestingtheU.S.acceptRussiasannexationofCrimea
ifitwouldleadtobetterrelationswithMoscowandstrongercooperationinfightingIslamicStatemilitants.

ThatviewrunscountertotheObamaadministration,whichimposedeconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaforannexingtheterritoryin
Ukrainetwoyearsago.TheUnitedNationsalsodoesntwantcountriestorecognizeCrimeaaspartofRussia,andsometop
RepublicansstaunchlydefendCrimeaagainstwhattheyconsiderRussianaggression.

InaninterviewbroadcastSundayonABCsThisWeek,TrumpsuggestedthatthepeopleofCrimeawouldratherbepartof
Russia.However,theU.S.hasntrecognizedthelegitimacyofRussianreferendumsinCrimeaandbelievestheywerenot
conductedfairly.
TrumpalsosaidhewasntinvolvedintheeffortthatsoftenedsupportintheRepublicanPartyplatformonassistingUkraine.
Althoughtheplatformisnotpro-Russia,TrumpsupporterssucceededinpreventingareferencetoarmingUkrainefrombeing
added.

Inthepast,Trumpscampaignmanager,politicalstrategistPaulManafort,lobbiedonbehalfofViktorYanukovych,aUkrainian
presidentandsupporterofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.ManaforthassaidneitherhenoranyoneelsewiththeTrump
campaignpushedfortheplatformchanges.

OnthetopicofPutinandUkraine,theRepublicansaid:HesnotgoingintoUkraine,OK,justsoyouunderstand.Hesnotgonna
gointoUkraine,allright?Youcanmarkitdown.Youcanputitdown.Youcantakeitanywhereyouwant.

ABCsGeorgeStephanopoulossaid,Well,hesalreadythere,isnthe?Trumpreplied,OK.Well,hesthereinacertainway.

TheClintoncampaignpointedtotheexchangetoquestionwhatTrumpknowsaboutthesubjectandarguedthattheRepublicanis
repeatingPutinstalkingpointsonCrimea.

Thisisscarystuff,ClintoncampaignspokesmanJakeSullivansaidinastatement.Butitshouldntsurpriseus.Thiscomeson
theheelsofhistacitinvitationtotheRussianstoinvadeourNATOalliesinEasternEurope.AnditsyetmoreproofwhyDonald
Trumpistemperamentallyunfitandtotallyunqualifiedtobecommanderinchief.

politics

InresponsetootherquestionsaboutU.S.-Russiarelations,Trumpdismissedsuggestionsthathehasanykindofrelationshipwith
Putin,sayinghehasneithermetPutinnorspokenonthephonewithhim.Askedwhyhehadsaidseveraltimesinthepastthathe
hadarelationshipwithPutin,Trumpsaidhedoesntknowwhathavingarelationshipmeans.

Hehassaidnicethingsaboutmeovertheyears,TrumpsaidofPutin.Irememberyearsago,hesaidsomething,manyyears
ago,hesaidsomethingveryniceaboutme.Isaidsomethinggoodabouthimwhen(broadcaster)LarryKingwason.Thiswasa
longtimeago.

TrumpsaiditwouldbeagreatthingiftheUnitedStatesgotalongwithRussiaandifRussiawouldhelpfighttheIslamicState
group.

WellhaveabetterrelationshipwithRussia,hesaid.AndhavingagoodrelationshipwithRussiaisagoodthing,notabad
thing.

(OD:Timedoesnotpermitmetoincludeallarticlesonthissubject,soIvelimitedmyselftothetwoabove)

[ED:ONITEMBELOW..KeyQuoteisfromAmb.Pyatt:

IwasalsoencouragedbytheveryclearfocusontheissueofaccessfortheOSCEmonitorsinEasternUkraine.Its
becomeincreasinglyapparentjustfromreadingtheSMMreportsthatthisisaproblemalmostentirelyonthe
separatist,Russian-controlledsideoftheContactLine.About90percentofaccessdenialshappenonthatsideofthe
line.AndaveryclearmessagefrombothAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikabouttheneedtoaddressthisissue,including
OSCEaccesstotheinternationallyrecognizedborderwhichitvirtuallydoesnothaveatthispoint,outsidetwoisolated
points.AndthataccesstotheborderaspreparationforrestorationoffullUkrainiancontroloftheinternationalborder
whichisanessentialrequirementforfullimplementationoftheMinskAgreements.]

USEmbassyKyiv
http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/statements/pyatt-baer-07292016.html

TelephonicPressBriefingbyU.S.AmbassadortoUkraineGeoffreyPyattandU.S.PermanentRepresentativetothe
OSCEDanielBaer

BrusselsMediaHub
July29,2016
Moderator:ThankyousomuchandgreetingstoeverybodyfromtheU.S.DepartmentofState.Iwouldliketowelcomeallof
youwhohavedialedinonthisFridaymorningfromacrossEuropeandIdliketothankyouforjoiningintodaysdiscussion.

WearepleasedthismorningtobejoinedfromViennabytwodistinguisheddiplomats.WehaveU.S.AmbassadortoUkraine
GeoffreyPyattandU.S.PermanentRepresentativetotheOSCE,AmbassadorDanielBaer.Andofcoursewearingtheir
respectivehatstheywillprovideyouanupdateonthesituationintheUkraine.

WearegoingtobegintodayscallwithopeningremarksfromAmbassadorBaerandthenAmbassadorPyatt,andthenwewill
turntoyourquestions.Andofcourseweregoingtotrytogettoasmanyaswecaninthetimethatwehave.

Asareminder,todayscallisontherecordandwiththatIwillturnitovertoyou,AmbassadorBaer.

AmbassadorBaer:ThankssomuchMireille,andthankyouverymuchtoallofyouwhohavejoinedusacrossseveraltime
zones.Iknowforsomeitsmid-morning,forothersitsyourmorningcupofcoffeeandweappreciateyourjoiningusthis
morning.

Justrealquickatthetop,yesterdaywehadameetinginthePermanentCouncilwhereAmbassadorMartinSajdikwhohasbeen
leadingtheTri-LevelContactGroupthatismadeupofOSCEasamediatorandRussiaandUkraineandthathastheseworking
groupsthathavebeenoperatinginMinskovermanymonthsnow,aswellasfromAmbassadorApakanwhoistheleaderofthe
OSCESpecialMonitoringMissioninUkraine.Bothofthemgaveaunitedmessageabouttheimportanceofachievinga
reinstatementoftheceasefireasafirststeptowardsanyfurtherprogressinreachingadiplomaticorpoliticalsituation.

ThesenseintheroomIthinkfromtheother56PermanentRepresentativesaswellasourdelegationwasthatthesituationhas
gottendramaticallyworseinthelastweeks.Wereseeingcasualtiesataratethatwehaventseenforayearnow.Andthefirst
stephasbeenthistalkaboutadisengagementplanthatwouldbedisengagementatseveralhotspotsalongtheLineofContact.

Unfortunately,therewasanefforttoreachanagreementonthedisengagementplanthisweekinMinsk.AmbassadorSajdik
reportedthattheywill,andAmbassadorApakan,reportedthattheywillmakeanotherattemptnextweekinMinsktogetthat
disengagementplanengaged.

ButIthinkoneofthethingsthatbecomesevercleareristhatweneedtoseewordsmatchedwithactions.TheRussianFederation
yesterdayagainclaimedthattheywanteddisengagement.TheyevenaskedthattheSMM,themonitoringmission,spendmore
timemonitoringonbothsidesoftheLineofContact.Butonthegroundweseeaverydifferentpicture.Weseecontinued
resupplyofweaponsandfighters.Weseecontinuedprovocationstokeeptheconflictgoing.Weseecontinuedrestrictionsofthe
SMManditsmonitors.Weseecontinuedshoot-downsofSMMUAVsaftertheyveseenRussianweaponry,heavyweaponsin
areaswhereitshouldntbe.

AndsothemessagethatwasdeliveredtotheRussianFederationyesterdaybymany,manyparticipatingstatesinthePermanent
Councilwasitstimetomatchyourwordswithactionandtogetthatdisengagementontheground.Thedisengagementisonlya
firststepthathastobeconsolidatedandbuiltintoarealceasefire.Therehastobemonitoringontheborder,andallofthose
thingsareanecessarypreconditioninordertoenablethediplomaticandpoliticalprocesstomoveforward.

IwillstopthereandturnitovertoAmbassadorPyatt.

AmbassadorPyatt:Great.Thankyou,Dan.

FirstofallletmesaywhatapleasureitistobehereinVienna.AmbassadorBaerhasbeenaskingmetodothisvisitforabout
twoyearsnowandIfinallygotaroundtoit.

Forme,inpartitwasachancetoexpressdeepappreciationforthepartnershipIveenjoyedwithAmbassadorsApakanand
Sajdik.IthinktheOSCEdoesnotgetallthepubliccredititdeservesfortheessential,courageousrolethatithasplayedin
Ukraine.OSCEactionshavesavedlivesoverthepasttwoandahalfyears.

ItwasalsoachanceformetoseeoneofthePermanentCouncilsandsortoftakethetemperatureofadiscussionwiththedaily
realitythatIlivewith.IwillsayIwasparticularlyencouragedbytheverystrongstatementfromtheEuropeanUnionandthe
messagefromourmanyEuropeanpartnersabouttheimportanceofRussiasactions,andaveryclearmessagethattherelaxation
ofsanctionswillbelinkedtothefullimplementationbytheRussianFederationoftheMinskagreements.

IwasalsoencouragedbytheveryclearfocusontheissueofaccessfortheOSCEmonitorsinEasternUkraine.Itsbecome
increasinglyapparentjustfromreadingtheSMMreportsthatthisisaproblemalmostentirelyontheseparatist,Russian-
controlledsideoftheContactLine.About90percentofaccessdenialshappenonthatsideoftheline.Andaveryclearmessage
frombothAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikabouttheneedtoaddressthisissue,includingOSCEaccesstotheinternationally
recognizedborderwhichitvirtuallydoesnothaveatthispoint,outsidetwoisolatedpoints.Andthataccesstotheborderas
preparationforrestorationoffullUkrainiancontroloftheinternationalborderwhichisanessentialrequirementforfull
implementationoftheMinskAgreements.

TheotherpointthatIconveyed,asidefromreaffirmingthemessagesthatcamefromAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikaboutthe
deterioratingmilitarysituation,wasalsoourconcernaboutthecontinuedpresenceofRussianorigintroopsandequipmenton
Ukrainianterritory.Andtheintroductionofsomenewweaponsystemswhichwebelieveisatleastpartiallytheexplanationforthe
alarmingspikeinviolenceandcasualtiesthatweveseeninrecentweeks.

Soagain,Illbehappytotakequestionsinwhateverdirectionisusefultopeople.

Moderator:Thankyouverymuch.Thankstobothofyouforsettingthestageforus.

Wearenowgoingtogotothequestionandanswerportionoftodayscall.IbelieveAnnaKorbutisthefirstinthequeuewiththe
UkrainianWeekly.

Question:ThisisAnnaKorbutfromtheUkrainianWeek.IhaveaquestionforbothAmbassadors.

Inyouropinion,whatisthepossibilityofplacingthearmedOSCE,thearmedmissionpoliceintheoccupiedpartsoftheDonbas
alongtheborderandalongtheContactLineandisthatoptionbeingdiscussed?Thankyou.

AmbassadorBaer:AsIsaid,thefocusrightnowisonrestoringtheceasefireandgettingastable,sustainedceasefirebecause
thatisapreconditionforeverythingelse.

Oneoftheconversationsthatshappeninghereandinotherplacesaswell,isobviouslyoneofthepartsoftheMinskAgreements
thatmanyofushavebeenfocusedonisthecommitmenttohavefreeandfairelectionsaccordingtointernationalstandardsand
observedbytheOSCE,byODIHR,andtohavethoselocalelectionsintheareasoftheDonbasthatarecurrentlycontrolledby
Russianseparatists.

IthinkoncetheresaceasefireontheLineofContact,oncetheresasustainedceasefireontheLineofContact,itwillbe
necessarytoassesswhatfurtherenhancementtosecurityisnecessaryinordertohavefreeandfairelections.Butthefirststep,no
matterwhat,isaceasefire.Andtobecrystalclear,theSMM,thecurrentmonitoringmission,hasamandate.Itisacivilian
monitoringmissionwithunarmedmonitors.AndtheSMMhasamissionitshouldcontinuetodowhatitsdoing.Itshoulddoits
mission.Welltakealook,wellhavetodoanassessmentoncethereisasustainedceasefireaboutwhatadditionaltoolsmaybe
necessaryandmaybepossible,andobviouslyoneofthethingsthathasbeentalkedaboutbysomepeopleisapolicemissionor
securitypresenceofsomesort.Thatmaybenecessary.ButtheSMMwillcontinuetobeacivilian,unarmedmission.Ithink
thatstheimportantpointfortoday.

Moderator:Thankyou.OurnextquestioniscomingtousfromGermanysARD.WehaveThomasNehlsontheline.Thomas,
goahead.

Question:BothAmbassadorsmentionedthegapbetweenspeakingandactingontheRussianside,butIwonderwhetherthere
couldbealsosomethingmissedontheUkraineside.Whatisthesituation,whatisthestatusinthefieldoftheautonomytalks?I
meanisanothercondition,thepeopleintheoccupiedterritoriesalsomention.Whatareweuptorightnow?

Andthesecondquestion,ifImay,isthereanyburdentoyouwhonegotiateveryhardandtoughthroughwhatMr.Trumpsaid.I
meanitsnotanobody,andhewasgoingto,asfarasIknow,toaccepttheannexingofCrimea.

AmbassadorPyatt:ThisisGeoffPyatt.

Ithink,Thomas,onyourimportantquestion,andyoureright,thereareobligationswhichUkraineundertookaspartoftheMinsk
Agreement.ButthesimplefactisUkrainehasexecutedthevastmajorityofitsobligations.AndPresidentPoroshenkohas
reaffirmedthosecommitmentspubliclyandprivatelyjustoverthepastfewdays.

Ukrainehaspassedanamnestylaw.Ukrainehashadthefirstreadingofaconstitutionalamendment.Ukrainehaspasseda
specialstatuslaw.ButitsveryclearthatRussiahasnotdischargeditsobligations.Thetroopsandequipmenthavenotbeen
withdrawn.Aceasefirehasnotbeenimplemented.Allhostageshavenotbeenreleased.AndtheUkrainianpositionwhichthe
UnitedStatessupports,isthatthefirsttasknow,asAmbassadorBaersaid,istherestorationoftheceasefire.Oncethats
accomplished,wehopethattherecanbeastepbystepprocessofimplementationofthefurtherstepsrequiredunderMinsk.That
isanapproachthatwehaveheardfromChancellorMerkel,fromPresidentHollande,andIshouldaddtheUnitedStatesisputting
maximumeffortintoreinforcingandsupportingtheeffortsofouralliesintheNormandyGroup.Infactthiswasatopicof
conversationjustthisweekbetweenPresidentObamaandChancellorMerkel,anditsnotacoincidencethatthatphonecallwith
theWhiteHousefollowedalmostimmediatelyonaphonecallbetweenChancellorMerkelandPresidentPoroshenko.

SoweareverycloselylashedupinKyivwithouralliesandIknowthatsthecasehereinViennaaswell.

AmbassadorBaer:ThisisDanBaer.

Youllforgivemefornotbeingabletogoonatlengthonyoursecondquestion,butIdothinkitsimportant.Obviouslyweknow
peoplearefollowingcloselythecampaignathome,andAmericancampaignsarealwayscolorfulandfuntowatch.ButIthinkits
importantforpeopletorememberthatAmericanforeignpolicywithrespecttoEuropeansecurityhasactuallybeenremarkably
consistentovermanydecadesthroughDemocraticandRepublicanadministrations,includingoursteadfastcommitmenttoNATO
asabedrockofsecurityintheEuropeanspaceourcommitmenttointernationallaw,andIthinktheenduringinterestofnotonly
Americancitizensbutcitizensofallothercountriesinhavingarules-basedsystemthatincludestherespectforterritorialintegrity
andnotchangingbordersbyforcewillcontinuethroughthenextpresidentandthepresidentafterthat.SoIthinkitsimportantfor
peopletokeepaneyeonboththelonghistorythatwehaveinourcommitmenttoEuropeansecurityaswellasthelonggame
goingforward.

Moderator:Thankyou.

ForournextquestionweregoingtojumpovertoGreeceandwehaveKostasMavraganisfromHuffingtonPostGreeceonthe
line.

Question:HellofromGreece.

SomequestionsforAmbassadorPyatt.InlightofyoubecomingthenewU.S.AmbassadorinGreece,Iwouldaskyouto
commentonthepossiblerepercussionsofthecoupattemptTurkeyonGreco-Turkishrelations.Aretensionstobeexpected?

AndalsowhataboutU.S.-TurkishrelationsandRussia-Turkishrelations?Inadditiontothese,whatistheU.S.positiononthe
matterofTurkishofficersseekingpoliticalasyluminGreece?

AmbassadorPyatt:Thankyouforthequestions.IverymuchlookforwardtomeetingyouwhenImonthegroundinAthens
andtakeoverasU.S.AmbassadortoGreece.

Fornow,ImstillAmbassadortoUkrainethough,soIhopeyoullforgivemeifIpassonyourquestions,defertomyfriendand
colleagueAmbassadorPearceonthosethingsfornow.

IwillsaythoughonthesortofmovethatIwillbemakinginthenextcoupleofweeks,itisstrikingtomeasIgettomovetothe
countrythatisthebirthplaceofdemocracy,tocomefromacountry,Ukraine,wherepeoplehavestruggledsovaliantlyoverthe
pasttwoyearstobothaffirmtheirdemocracybutalsobepartofalargerEuropeancommunity.AndIthinktheonepiecethatI
wanttospendsometimethinkingaboutasImanagethistransitionmyselfisthereallyremarkablestorythatIvelivedthroughand
seenoverthepastthreeyearswhichisUkrainiansmakingextraordinarysacrificesinpursuitofavisionofEuropeanvaluesand
Europeaninstitutionsthatisquitepowerfulandenormouslyattractive.AndIthinkitsworththinkingaboutinthecontextofthis
largerdebateoverEuropeaninstitutions.ItsworthbearinginmindthatforaverylargecountryattheheartofEurope,acountry
of45millionpeople,howverycompellingtheEuropeanpackagestillis.

Soletmeleaveitonthat.Andagain,Iapologize.IwillbeveryhappytoengagewithyouontheGreece-specificquestionsbut
ImgoingtowaituntilImactuallydoingthatjob.

Moderator:Thanks.

NowweregoingtomoveovertoRomania,andwehaveDragosCosicfromDigi24ontheline.

Question:Thankyouverymuch.IhavetwoquestionsforbothoftheAmbassadors.

RomaniaisveryconcernedaboutthesecurityintheBlackSea.Iwouldliketoknowyourassessmentsaboutthisissue.

Andalso,IwouldliketoaskyouaboutthesecurityinotherpartsofUkraine.Wesawdifferentnewsaboutsomemovementsfor
exampleintheWesternpart,andalsoRomaniasinterestinthesouthernpart,citieslikeOdessa.Thankyouverymuch.

AmbassadorPyatt:Thankyouverymuch,Dragos.Firstofall,IshouldsayRomaniahasbeenagoodpartner.IwasinOdessa
justlastweekendforalargemaritimeexercisethatUkrainewashostingalongwiththeUnitedStates,butRomaniawasalsovery
prominentthere.Youhadashipinport.TherewereacoupleofRomanianofficersatareceptionIhostedonSundaynight.

WetooareveryinterestedandveryengagedonthesequestionsofBlackSeasecurity.Thatwaspartofthemessageofthevery
largeSeaBreezeexercisewhichweallparticipatedin.Designedtobothbuildinteroperabilityandthereweresomeverycomplex
aspects,unusuallycomplexaspectstothisyearsexerciseincludingabeachlandingveryclosetowhatusedtobeRomania,down
inBessarabia.ButalsotoraiseUkrainiancapacity,especiallyinlightoftheillegaloccupationandannexationofCrimeaand
everythingthatflowedfromthat.

Sothatwillcontinuetobeourapproach.Wearegoingtocontinue,ImspeakingfortheUnitedStates,continuetohaveavery
forthrightandclearviewontheillegalstatusofRussiasactionsinCrimea.

OntherestofUkraine,Iknowitshardtobelievesometimesfollowingtheheadlineswhichareunderstandablyfocusedonwhats
happeninginDonbas.ThepointIwouldmakeabouttherestofUkraineisitsactuallyquiteremarkablehownormaland
successfultherestofUkraineisbeing.Theeconomyisgrowing.Businessesarereopening.Thereisaquiteprofoundsenseof
resolveamongUkrainians,andIspeaktoalotofthemwhetherinOdessaorKharkivorKyivorLviv.Theircommitment,their
desiretomovetowardsEuropeaninstitutions,Europeanstandards,theirinterestingettingonwiththeoverduetaskofreforming
theUkrainianstate,includinggrapplingwithsomeofthesamekindsofcorruptionissuesthatyouvemadeprogressontherein
Romania,buildinganattractiveinvestmentclimate,movingthecountryforward.Andwhatsveryclearaftertwoandahalfyearsis
thatwhateverRussiadoesorisabletodointheDonbas,itisnotabletoholdbackUkrainefromitsEuropeanchoice.

Moderator:Thankyou.WeregoingtogobackovertoUkraineandwevegotMarinaSemenenkoonthelinefromtheoutlet
UNN.

Question:WecanseenowthatRussiadoesnt[meet]itscommitments.SomaybeyoushouldsanctionharderforRussia.

AmbassadorBaer:HiMarina.IthinkyourpointisthatRussiahasntfollowedthroughonwhatitscommittedtoandsothe
questionhastobewhatmorecanwedo.Ithinkfirstofall,itsimportanttolookbackandseeoverthelasttwoyearshow
coordinatedandunifiednotonlytheUnitedStatesandtheEU,butotherpartnershavebeenintermsofsendingthemessageto
RussiathatwewanttocreateincentivesforRussiatodowhatitsaysitwilldo.Thatistosay,RussiasaysitwillimplementMinsk,
thatitwillimplementtheMinskAgreements,andalltheincentives,andfrankly,theinterestoftheRussianpeopleisinRussiadoing
whatithassaiditwilldo.Not--obviouslytheinterestofthepeopleofUkraineaswell.

SoIthinkrightnowwereveryfocusedontryingtofindsupport,thedisengagementandthereestablishmentoftheceasefire,and
obviouslytheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStateshavejustrenewedsanctionsrecently.Thesanctionsarenotanythingthat
anyonewants,buttheyarenecessaryinordertocreatetheincentivesfortheKremlintomaketherightdecisionstoleadtode-
escalation,toleadtoestablishmentoftheceasefireandsustainedceasefire,andtomakepossibletherestofthestepsthatarelaid
outinMinsk.

Moderator:Thankyou.Idontseeanyotherquestionsinthequeueatthemoment,soIwillturnbacktoyou,Ambassadors
PyattandBaer,ifthereareanyclosingremarksthatyouwouldliketomake.

AmbassadorBaer:ThanksMireille,andthanksagaintofolksontheline.Ihopefolkshavebeenabletogetthrough.Sorryfor
someofthetechnicalproblemsthismorning.Andthankstoourfriendswhoareorganizingthis.Iknowitsalwaysdifficulttohave
peopleinthreedifferentcitiestryingtomakeoneofthesethingshappen.

IthinkoneofthethingsthatsjustreallyimportantaswegointoAugust,Augusthashistoricallynotalwaysbeenagoodmonth.I
thinkitsreallyimportantthattheeyesoftheinternationalcommunityremainfocusedonthesituationontheground.Therecant
bethisdisjunctbetweenrepeating,betweentheconversationsthatarebeinghad,sometimeswithfrustratingrepetitionaboutthe
needtogetthisdisengagementplan,togettheceasefirerestarted,andthesituationonthegroundwherepeoplearedying.And
oneofthepointswemadeyesterday,theU.S.delegationmadeyesterdayinthePermanentCouncilwas,everytimethegroupthat
isworkingondisengagementinMinsk,everytimetheydecidethattheyllkickitanotherweek,thenthatextraweekcostslives
becausepeoplearedyingeverydayontheground,andnotonlymilitarybutcivilians.Andoneofthethingsthathasbeen
enduringlytruethroughoutthelast2.5years,wheneitherAmbassadorPyattorIhavehadthechancetogoouteastandtalkto
peoplewhohavecomefrombothsidesoftheLineofContact,thethingthatis,thefirstthingthateveryonesaysistheyjustwant
peace.Peopleonbothsidesofthelinejustwantpeace.AndIthinkitsreallyincumbentonallofustocontinuetoputthe
pressureontogetthereinstatementoftheceasefireandtodeliverthepeacethatpeoplewantontheground.

Moderator:Thankyou.Imayhavespokentoosoon.Wedidhavetwomorequestionsjustpopintothequeue.Ifyoure
willingtotakeit,wellseeifwecangettothose.

AmbassadorBaer:Sure.Thatsfine.
AmbassadorPyatt:Danwillhavetocomeupwithhisconclusionagain.[Laughter].

Moderator:ThefirstquestioniscomingfromFredericEgerwhoisafreelancereporterbasedinLatvia.

Question:Hello,AmbassadorBaer.IvebeenconnectingjustrecentlysoIdidntherthebeginningoftheentiretalk.

IjustwantedtoknowifbesidestheMinskAgreementyouhadyourownmaybeplantofind,andyourownideasandsolutionsto
findaquickresolutionofthisconflict.Asyoumentionedjustrightnow,civiliansandcollateraldamagesareoftentheresultof
thesekindofregionalconflicts.Sowouldyou,whendoyouthinkthisconflictcanbeended?Andwhatwillbetheroadmap,the
maybetenpointsthatyouthinkareprioritytoestablishtohaveaceasefirethatstaysinplaceandhavethisoverallconflictresolved
assoonaspossible?

AmbassadorBaer:Frankly,ifIhadaquickfix,Iwouldbeinadifferentjobbynow.

Ithinkoneofthethingsthathasbeenmostheartbreakingformanyofuswhohavebeenworkingontryingtosupportadiplomatic
andapoliticalresolutionoverthelasttwoandahalfyears,hasbeennotonlythefactthatthisentireconflictwasachosenconflict,
wasachosentragedy,atragedythatwasntnecessaryinaworldthatisfilledwithsomanytragediesthatwecantprevent,thisis
onethatwaschosen.

SothatinitialdeepsadnessfromthatfactisfollowedbythefactthatasearlyasSeptemberof2014theMinskProtocol--and
beforethat,frankly,inMayof2014,PresidentPoroshenkospeaceplanwhichwastheprecursortotheMinskProtocol--the
MinskProtocolthatwassignedbybothRussiaandUkraineinSeptemberof2014hasalloftheingredientsofasustainable
peace.Ithasallofthestepsthatarenecessary.Soweveknownwhatneedstobedonefortwoyearsnow.

Theproblemisnotinsolvingsomedifficultpuzzle,itsnot,thisisnotapuzzle.Theproblemispoliticalwill.Andyouknow,my
Ukrainiancolleague,AmbassadorProkopchukhereinVienna,closedhisstatementyesterdaybyrepeatingthewordsofPresident
Poroshenko,whichisthatifMoscowwantedpeaceasmuchasUkrainedid,thisconflictwouldhaveendedlongago.AndIthink
thatremainstruetoday.

Sowehavetorememberthattheformulaisntamystery.Theformulaisinfrontofusandhasbeeninfrontofusfortwoyears.
Thechallengeistogetthatformulaengaged,andobviouslytomakesurethattheKremlinisengagedonactuallymakingpeace
ratherthanfomentingconflict.

AmbassadorPyatt:Again,thisisGeoff.Iwouldjust,toreinforcethepointAmbassadorBaerjustmade,ifyoulookatactions
onthegroundintermsofthesignalsthataresentbyRussiascontinuedsupplyofequipment,fuel,weapons,thatiswhatisdriving
thisconflict.AndthatistheprocessthattheMinskAgreementwasmeanttohalt.

PresidentPoroshenko,asIsaidearlier,hasmadeveryclearthathestandsbythecommitmentshemadeundertheMinsk
Agreements.Infacttherehasbeenquiteabitofprogressinthataspectsofthenegotiationsinthetrilateralcontactgroupin
Minsk.

Wheretheresadlyhasnotbeenasmuchprogressisonthesecuritytrack.Andindeed,themessagewhichAmbassadorsApakan
andSajdikdeliveredveryclearlytoeverybodyhereinViennabeforetheywentoffontheirsummerbreakyesterday,isthatthe
militarysituationonthegroundisasbadasithasbeensincethesummerof2015.

ThereisIthinkonthepartofmanyofus,deepconcernaboutthesesignalsthatratherthanterminatingthisconflict,Russias
actionsarehavingtheeffectofescalatingitonceagain.

Moderator:OurlastquestiontodayiscomingtousfromKristinaButkowhoiswithUkrainianNews.

Question:MygreetingsforbothAmbassadors.

SoyesterdayPresidentPutinsaid[inaudible]Crimeanfederaldistrictanddoesitmeanthatthesanctionswillbeprolongedtothe
southandfederaldistrictwhichitwasaddedto?

AmbassadorPyatt:Christina,thisisGeoff.Letmeanswerthefirsthalfofthatquestion,thenIllaskAmbassadorBaertopick
upsomeofit.

IthinkasregardstheUnitedStatesofAmerica,thisdecisionbytheRussiangovernmenthasnoimpactwhatsoever.Wedonot
recognizetheillegalannexationofCrimea.ThatwillnotchangebasedonwhothegovernorisinSevastopol.Itwillnotchangeon
thebasisofwheretheboundariesofaparticularOblastorterritoryisdrawn.Crimea,quitesimply,ispart,legallypartofUkraine.
ThatisU.S.policy.AndasVicePresidentBidenmadeclearintheRadalastfall,itslikelytoremainU.S.policy.
AmbassadorBaer:Ithinkitsimportantalso,thisisntjustamatterofU.S.policyasAmbassadorPyattsaid.Youknow,the
UNGAresolutionthatwastakenafterRussiasattemptedannexationofCrimeamadeclearthatasamatterofinternationallaw,
CrimeaisUkraine.AndthatwastruebeforeRussiasattempttoannexitanditstrueafterward,anditstruenomatterwhatkinds
ofgymnasticstheKremlingoesthroughinordertoredrawspacesonamap.

Ithinkitsimportantthat,youknow,apointthatwevemadeherewhenRussianrepresentativessaytheywanttohavea
conversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecurity,isthatanyconversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecuritywillhavetostart
withCrimea.ItwillhavetostartwithRussiasattempttoredrawbordersbyforceinthe21s tcentury.

SoIthink,Idontknowwhatsbehindthemovetoincorporate,intheirview,intosomeotherdistrictoftheRussianFederation.
PerhapstheyretryingtohidetheenormouscostthatthisillegalactionhashadfortheRussiantaxpayer.Perhapstheyretryingto
dosomethingelse.Butinanycase,theirredrawingmapsdoesntmakeadifferenceintheeyesofthelaworintheeyesofthevast
majorityoftheinternationalcommunitythatscondemnedthisaction.

Moderator:Thatconcludestodaysconversation,andIwouldliketoextendsincerethankstobothofyou,AmbassadorsPyatt
andBaer.AmbassadorPyatt,Iknowyoudidntgetachancetomakeclosingremarksearlier.Werethereanyotherlastwords
youwantedtogive?

AmbassadorPyatt:IllleaveitwhereDandid,andIagain,IthinktheimportantmessagethatIwouldtakefromconversations
hereinViennathesetwodaysiswecannotbecomplacent.Andbecausethesuccessofourdiplomacyisthevehiclethrough
whichwehopetoendtheterrible,terriblehumansufferingthathashappenedineasternUkraine,wecanttakeAugustoff.

Moderator:Thankyou.Andthankyoutoallofourparticipantswhohavedialedintoday.Wereallyappreciateyoujoiningus.

####

WindowonEurasia
UkrainiansDenounceTrumpsReadinesstoLegitimizePutinsCrimeanAnschluss
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/08/ukrainians-denounce-trumps-readiness-to.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at11:49AM
Subject:"DonaldTRUMPgivesquestionableexplanationofeventsinUKRAINE,"nytimes.com,8/1
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

InaninterviewwithGeorgeStephanopoulosontheABCNewsprogramThisWeek,Mr.Trumpsaid
thatifhewerepresident,PresidentVladimirPutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.He
thenbackpedaledwhenMr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefornearly
twoyears.

And:S.V.Dale,TrumpPUSHEDforGOPtochangeUkraineposition,nowclaimshedidnt:Thepro-
RussiachangewastheonlyplatformtweaktheTrumpcampcaredabout,sources
say,huggingtonpost.com,7/31

And:Detailed8-pageportraitofTRUMPscampaignmanager:HowPaulMANAFORTwieldedpower
inUkrainebeforeadvisingDonaldTrump,nytimes.com,7/31

And:AnintensivelookatManafortscampaignteam,someofthemformeraides[e.g.Frank
MERMOUD]inthecampaigntopropupViktorYANUKOVYCH:DonaldTrumpandRussia:aweb
thatgrowsmoretangledallthetime,theguardian.com,7/30

And:[Hillary]CLINTON:RussianIntelhackedtheDNC,thedailybeast.com,7/31

And:MichaelWEISS,JulianASSANGE,DonaldTrump,andVladimirPUTIN:ATroikaforourinsane
era,thedailybest.com,8/111-pagearticle

Inabizarremind-meldthatcouldonlyhappentoday,theWikiLeaksfounderisrefusingtosaywhether
hegotthehackedDNCemailsfromRussia,andTrumpisdefendingRussia.

And:GorgeF.WILL,HowentangledwithRussiaisTrump,washingtonpost.com,7/29op-ed

And:InvestigativepieceonwhythemoderateMikhailZURABOVwasreplacedbyhardlinerMikhail
BABICHasRussiasambassadorto
UKRAINE:http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/07/29_a_9719417.shtml

And:RussiaseconomystillFALLINGafterhittingrockbottomReport[byMoscowsHigher
SchoolofEconomics],themoscowtimes.com,8/1

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at11:44AM
Subject:UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

AndreasUmland

TherearemoreandmoresignsthatRussiamaybepreparinganewmilitaryoffensiveinEasternUkraine.

http://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/bojovikiv-vidklikajut-z-vidpustki-do-mistsja-postijnoji-dislokatsiji-is-185521.html

JoshRogin

Manafortliedon@meetthepress.HesaidnoonefromthecampaignworkedontheUkrainepartoftheplatform.Flat
outlie.
AnneApplebaum

Manafortspenthiscareerrepackagingdictators.WhyshouldhestoplyingjustbecausethisistheUS,notUkraine?

CyberShowdown.HowRussianHackingWorks

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-07-31/cyber-showdown?cid=soc-tw-rdr

CNNInternational

JulianAssangewontsaywhetherRussiaisbehindDNChackhttp://cnn.it/2afFntj

Yesterday:

PutinVisitsSlovenia

http://www.rferl.org/content/putin-seek-divide-slovenia-eu-on-sanctions-during-visit-july-30/27889575.html
...
"Russiaisconstantlytryingtofindawayaroundthesanctions,targetingcountriesitthinksaresofter.Theyaretrying
tokillthesanctionswithasoftapproach,"oneofthediplomatssaid.
ThediplomatssaidItaly,Greece,Hungary,Cyprus,Slovenia,Slovakia,andBulgariawereamongRussia'smain
targets...
Atthesmall,Orthodox-stylewoodenchurch,PutinsaidRussiawasreadytohelpstrengthensecurityinEuropeand
theworld...

Putin,AssadDoaChechnyaNumberonAleppo

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-williams2/putin-assad-do-a-chechnya_b_11283940.html?yptr=yahoo

...VladimirPutinsDefenseMinisterhasannouncedthatSyrianforcesloyalPresidentBasharal-Assadwilllet
civiliansleavethroughthreecorridors,andrebelsthroughanother,toescapebesiegeddistrictsofAleppo.Wehave
seenthismoviebefore.

ItisthesametacticRussianusedwhenitsairandgroundforceswerebesiegingGrozny,capitalofthebreakaway
provinceofChechnyabackin1999andearly2000,whiletryingtoflushoutIslamicrebelsfromthecity.This
permittedMoscowtodeclareGroznyafree-firezone,allthebettertobatterthealreadyruinedcityanddeallesswith
themessybusinessofkillingciviliansandfightingdoor-to-doorwithinsurgents...

FrenchCollaboratorsKissMonumenttoRussianInvadersofCrimea(photo)

31.07.16|HalyaCoynash

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1469924085
11FrenchMPs,mostlyfromNicolasSarkozysRepublicanParty,didnotmerelybreachUkrainianlawand
internationalsanctionsthroughtheirvisittoCrimeathisweekend.Theyalsotookpartinashamefulpropaganda
show,denyingflagranthumanrightsviolationsunderRussianoccupationandslanderingCrimeanTatarswhohave
beenabducted,andverylikelymurdered.

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at11:33AM
Subject:JulianAssange,DonaldTrump,andVladimirPutin:ATroikaforOurInsaneEra-TheDailyBeast[ED:
FriendsreadthesectiononAssangeandCo.withparticularcare]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,GloriaHorbaty-NewEngland<gphorbaty@hotmail.com>,
mmshevchuk@aol.com,orysia<ukiebuzz@gmail.com>

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/01/julian-assange-donald-trump-and-vladimir-putin-a-troika-
for-our-insane-era.html

JulianAssange,DonaldTrump,andVladimir
Putin:ATroikaforOurInsaneEra
Itwouldalmostbeheart-warmingthatonemedia-obsessedmegalomaniachasfinallyfoundhisequalwereitnot
forthefactthatoneisnowwithin6percentagepointsoftheAmericanpresidencyandtheotherisJulian
Assange.

TheWikiLeaksfounderandeditorinchieftooktoCNNandNBCsMeetthePressthisweekendtoexplain
hisreasonforreleasingtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeshackedemailsandtoanswerquestionsabout
whethertheywereobtainedthroughtheRussianintelligenceservices.Inananswertothefirstquestion,Assange
toldAndersonCooperonFridayeveningthathefeltanobligationtoWikiLeaksreadersandthatthedecision
topublishtheemailsjusthoursbeforeHillaryClintonacceptedherpartysnominationwasindeedopportunistic.
Ifwepublishedafter,youcanjustimaginehowoutragedtheDemocraticvotingpopulationwouldhavebeen,
Assangesaid.Ithadtohavebeenbefore.

Verywell,then.Onthequestionofhowhisorganizationcameintopossessionofthisprivilegedcorrespondence,
AssangetoldCooperthathecantcommentonanythingthatmightreflectonsourcingtorulethingsinorrule
thingsout.SohewontsayifVladimirPutinsdomesticandmilitaryintelligenceagencieshackedtheDNC,as
agrowinglistofU.S.officials,independentcybersecurityanalysts,andnowClintonherselfbelieve,andasis
fartherfrombeingprovenhandedeverythingtheyfoundtoadigitalcollectiveostensiblycommittedtototal
transparency,forthepurposeofinfluencingaforeignelection.

AssangehasmadehiscontemptforClintonexplicit.InarecentinterviewwithBritishITVsRobertPeston,he
saidhebelievedtheformersecretaryofstatewastryingtohavehimindictedforpublishingU.S.diplomatic
cablesandmilitarydocumentsfiveyearsago.HealsochidedClintonforhersupportoftheLibyaintervention
andherrecordasaliberalwarhawk.OntheWikiLeakswebsite,hedescribedherasthecandidatefor
endless,stupidwar,writingthatClintonshouldntbeletnearagunshop,letaloneanarmy.Andshecertainly
shouldnotbecomepresidentoftheUnitedStates.

WhenPestonaskedaboutTrump,however,Assangewascagier,decliningtosaywhetherheprefersthe
Manhattanrealestatedeveloperasthenextcommanderinchief.Trump,hemerelysubmitted,iscompletely
unpredictableagainsttheknownquantitythatisClinton.

TherehasbeenasurfeitofdiscussionanddebateinthepresslatelyaboutTrumpsfinancialandpolitical
closenesstothePutinregime,muchofitcenteredonwhethertheGOPnomineeisaManchuriancandidatea
navel-gazingandpointlessexercise,asMikhailZygar,oneofRussiastopKremlinologists,moreorlessshowed
inPoliticolastweek.TrumpistheidealcandidateforPutinbecauseheis,intheKremlinsopinion,extremely
pragmatic,extremelyunprincipledandextremelycynicalwhichmakeshimeasiertoreachanunderstanding
with.NottomentionthatTrump,unlikeClintonandjustabouttheentirerestoftheWashingtonforeignpolicy
class,hasexplicitlyexpressedadmirationandsympathyforPutin.

TrumpcertainlycampaignsincreasinglyasifheholdsdearerPutinsnationalsecurityintereststhanhedoes
Americas.

Leaveasidethenow-ancientscandalaboutdefendingArticleVoftheAtlanticCharterintheeventthatBaltic
NATOalliesareinvadedbyRussia.Trumphasschizophrenicallycharacterizedapriorinvasionasbothnocause
forbilateraldiscomfortandontologicallyvoid.

AtapressconferenceonJuly27,followinghisownnominatingconvention,Trumpclaimedthathewillbe
lookingintowhethertheUnitedStatesshouldendsanctionsontheRussiaoveritsinvasionofaneighboring
countryandperhapsalsorecognizeCrimeaasRussianFederationterritory,apositionthatnotevenBeijinghas
broughtitselftoespouseowingtoitsownfearsofRussianmeddlingintheFarEast.

InaseparateinterviewjustdayslaterwithABCsGeorgeStephanopoulos,TrumpactuallydeniedthatRussian
soldiersarecurrentlyinUkraine,againstthelogicofhispriorstatementandallevidencetothecontrary
includingPutinsownbelatedadmissionabouttheseizureofCrimeathroughforcetwoyearsago.Moreover,
TrumpvowedthatPutinisnotgonnagointoUkraine,allright.Youcanmarkitdown.

AssangescuriousrelationshipwiththeRussiangovernmentisbotholderandmorefullyventilated,althoughits
worthreviewinginlightofhisreturntotheprime-timespotlightandrefusaltodisclaimthatPutinsspooksgave
himhislatestscoop.

WhereWikiLeaksmayhaveonceadvertiseditselfasacategoricalenemyofstateatrocities,hypocrisies,and
liesandoncedidindeeddoapublicserviceitnowbehavesasifithonorsthisnobleraison
detreselectively.IthadlittleregardforthemassivePanamaPapersdisclosuresofoffshoreasset-keeping,
muchofitbelongingtoKremlininsiders.Ittweeted,withoutevidence,wasfundedbytheU.S.government
throughUSAIDasanattackstoryonPutin.(Assangeiswidelybelievedtopersonallymantheorganizations
socialmediaaccount.)

Assangealsohadashort-livedtalkshowthatisbroadcastontheKremlin-fundedpropagandanetworkRT,
whichhasassiduouslypushedTrumpscandidacy.ThefirstguestwasHezbollahSecretary-GeneralHassan
Nasrallah,aU.S.-designatedterroristwhomanysympatheticTVpresentersinMiddleEasthavenotbeen
grantedaccesstobutRTsproducersmanagedtoreachinhishideawaybunkerinLebanonandbeamhis
chubbyvisageintoNorfolk,England,whereAssangestayedpriortohisarrivalattheEcuadorianembassyin
London,wherehehasbeenholedupsince2012,evadingextraditiontoSwedenonsexualassaultallegations.

NotthattheEcuadoriangovernmentisterriblyindulgentofitsguest.AccordingtothejournalFocusEcuador,
withinmonthsofAssangesasylumbeingissuedbyQuito,thecountrysintelligenceagencySENAINstarted
spyingonhimintheKnightsbridgeembassyinanoperationdubbedHotel.AccordingtoFocusEcuador,In
someinstances,[Assange]requestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidetheembassy,
suggestingtheuseofRussians.FortheSENAINagents,suchchoicewouldhavemeant,amongotherproblems,
thelossofcontroloftheEmbassyitselfleavingtheguestfreeaccesstocontrolandmanagetheflowof
information.Thereportevenassertsthatitwouldhavebeentheequivalentofacoupintheembassy.(Afull
Englishtranslationofthatarticlecanbefoundhere.)

Theperiodicaldidnotfurtherspeculateaboutwhysomeonesoconcernedwithbeingsafefromthelongreachof
governmentspiesandoperativeswasseekingtheprotectionofasecurityserviceknownfor
surveilling,kidnapping,andkillingitsowncitizens,bothathomeandabroad.

AssangehasalsosaiditwashisideaforEdwardSnowdentoseekasylumnotinEcuadorbutinRussia.He
preferredLatinAmerica,theAustraliansaidinAugust2015,butmyadvicewasthatheshouldtakeasylumin
RussiadespitethenegativePRconsequences,becausemyassessmentisthathehadasignificantriskhecould
bekidnappedfromLatinAmericaonCIAorders.Kidnappedorpossiblykilled.

AsproofthatWikiLeaksplayedaroleinorchestratingSnowdensasylumcase,Assangedispatchedoneofthe
organizationsrepresentatives,theBritishjournalistSarahHarrison,toaccompanytheformerNSAspyonhis
journeytoSheremetyevoAirportinMoscow.Harrisonalsoturnedupapressconferencewithhimthere.
ItremainsamysteryhowHarrisonwasgrantedavisatoMoscowwhenheremployerboastsofitsmissionof
stealingstatesecretsforpublicationandwheninvestigativejournalistsonforeignpassportswhodofarlessthan
thataredeniedentrytoRussiaorgetexpelledor,inextremecases,murdered.

WealsohaveWikiLeakssone-timecontentaggregatorinPutin-land,IsraelShamir,whosenamewas
conspicuouslyabsentonCNNuntilImentioneditonSaturday.

AstheorganizationsformerenlisteeJamesBallputintheGuardian,aself-styledRussianpeacecampaigner
withalonghistoryofantisemiticwriting,ShamirwasintroducedtotheteamunderthepseudonymAdam,andit
wasonlyseveralweeksafterhehadleftwithahugecacheofunredacted[U.S.StateDepartment]cables
thatmostofusstartedtofindoutwhohewas.

ThiswasaGooglesearchsworthofwork,really.Shamirsviewsseemtobothanticipateandunderscorethose
ofthealt-rightTrumpsupportwingonsocialmedia.DailyBeastcolumnistMichaelMoynihanablycatalogued
hisfascisminReasonmagazine.ShamirbelievesthatAuschwitzwasnotaNazideathcampbutratheraRed
Cross-overseeninternmentfacilitythatallMuslimsandChristiansareduty-boundtodenythattheShoahever
tookplacethatTheProtocolsoftheEldersofZionisnotadebunkedtsaristfabricationbutactuallyaJewish
manualforworlddominationandthatJewsthemselvesareavirusinhumanform.

Shamirsson,thefabulisthackJohannesWahlstrm,hasalsobeenidentifiedasWikiLeaksspokesmanin
Sweden.

Fatherandsonappeartohavefoundabosswhohashimselffloatedperilouslycloseintothesameorbitof
bigotedlunacy.AccordingtoIanHislop,theeditorofBritainsPrivateEye,Assangeaccusedthatvenerable
satiricalweeklyofbeingpartofaconspiracyledbytheGuardianwhichincludedjournalistDavidLeigh,
[former]editorAlanRusbridgerandJohnKampfnerfromIndexonCensorshipallofwhomareJewish.
(Infact,RusbridgerisnotJewish,butAssangeexplainedthatheneverthelessqualifiesasamemberofthetribe
bybeingthebrother-in-lawofDavidLeigh,anotherGuardianista,whois.)Assangedeniedsayinganysuch
things,buttheGuardianhadalreadylearnedthatitserstwhilemediapartnerhasarathercavalierattitudeabout
protectinginnocentsmentionedinclassifiedtextshedisseminates.AfghanswhoriskedTalibanreprisalsby
workingwithU.S.andNATOforceswereinformants,Assangehassaid,accordingtoLeighandLuke
Harding,aBritishreporterwhowaschuckedoutofRussiaforwritingtruthfullyaboutPutin.So,iftheyget
killed,theyvegotitcomingtothem.Theydeserveit.

WhichmakesitratheradorablethatAssangeinsistedtoBrianStelterthatWikiLeakshada10-yearrecordof
presentingtotallyaccurateinformationtothepublic.Somemembersofthepublichaveevengotadvance
copies.

InDecember2010,theodiousShamirwenttoBelaruswiththebundleofunredactedcablesBallmentioned,all
ofwhichweredraftedinMinsk.AccordingtojournalistKapilKomireddi,ShamirthenmetwithVladimir
Makei,thechiefofstaffofBelarusiandictatorAlexanderLukashenko,andturnedovereverythinghehad,
featuringthenamesofprominentBelarusiandissidentsandoppositionfigureswhohadmetwithU.S.diplomats
overtheyears.ThenShamirhungaroundtomonitorthecountrysforthcomingpresidentialelection,whichwas
asfreeandfairasyoudexpectinacountrywhosesecretpolicearestillknownastheKGB.Lukashenkoof
coursewon,with80percentofthevote,andimprisonedhisclosestrival,myfriendAndreiSannikov,who
wassubsequentlytorturedinjail.

AsKomireddinoted,Shamirshand-deliveryofcablestowhatwasthenanuncomplicatedpro-Putinsatellite
regimewasmoretobolsteracrackdownonpoliticalfreedomafterthefactratherthanfurnishanenemieslist.
SovietBelarus,astate-runnewspaper,Komireddiwrote,beganserializingwhatitclaimedtobeextracts
fromthecablesgiftedtoLukashenkobyShamir.Amongthefiguresexposedasrecipientsofforeigncashwere
Sannikov,thedefeatedoppositionpresidentialcandidateOlegBebenin,Sannikovspresssecretary,whowas
founddeadinsuspiciouscircumstancesmonthsbeforetheelectionsandVladimirNeklyayev,thewriterand
formerpresidentofBelarusPEN,whoalsoranagainstLukashenkoandisnowunderhousearrest.

Shamir,unsurprisingly,hasnothingbutpraiseforPutin.UkrainesEuromaidanrevolutionhecallsaNeocon-led
conspiracyinKievledbyBrownstorm-troopers.Healsojoyouslypresentstheshamreferendumheldin
occupiedCrimeaasalmostunanimouslyinfavorofjoiningRussia.
Thetrue,contradictoryresultofthatstage-managedplebiscitewerepostedtothewebsiteofPutinsown
HumanRightsCouncilbeforethevotetookplace.AndsinceRussianoccupation,Crimeahasbecomeamafia
stateletwhereactivistsarearrestedandtortured,andRussiassatrapyhasbannedtheindigenous
Tatarmajlis(orlegislature)andincarceratedseveralofthatantiqueMuslimcommunitysmostprominentfigures
ontheeveoftheanniversaryofStalins1944deportationandgenocideofCrimeanTatars,noless.

Inoureraofideologicalinsanity,Isupposeweshouldntbesurprisedthatabizarremind-meldhastakenplace
amongsuchatroikaofworld-historicalsolipsists:oneinchargeof11timezonesandmanynuclearweapons
oneconfinedtoaThirdWorldmissionandstillhungryforpressclippingsandonewhothinksthatwarsonly
existdependingonthetimeofdayandhisownparticularmood.NowwefindTrumpsurrogateson
CNNdenyingthatRussiaeverseizedCrimeainthefirstplace,whichexculpatestheKremlinfromany
unpleasantnessvisiteduponthepeninsula,whilePaulManafortsmilesandsaysheknowsnothingaboutRussian
hackersoranymoneytrailleadingfromthecampaignhemanagesbacktoMoscow.Anddontexpecttofind
one,Manafortadds,asTrumpwontbereleasinghistaxreturns,afterall.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:GlenHoward<howard@jamestown.org>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at12:06PM
Subject:Fwd:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad[AnEmergingTrumpDoctrine?]
To:WalterZarycki<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PaulGoble
<paul.goble@gmail.com>

Fyi

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad<jordan@gryphon-partners.com>
Date:August1,2016at10:32:42AMEDT
To:<howard@jamestown.org>
Subject:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad
Reply-To:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad<jordan@gryphon-partners.com>

TheEmergingTrumpDoctrine?
ZalmayKhalilzad

July28,2016

TweetShareShare
Recentpresidentialcampaignshavenotfocusedonforeignpolicy.Thisyear
couldbedifferent.Thevolatilityoftheinternationalsystemhasincreasingly
becomeintertwinedwiththedomesticissuesthattendtodominate
presidentialelections.

ThecivilwarwithinIslamhasproducedtheworstinternationalterroristthreat
ofthemodernera:ISIS,orDaesh.Thisconflict,aswellasinstabilityin
Africa,hasalreadypushedmillionsofmigrantsintoEurope,whichhasgiven
risetogreaternationalismandthreatenstheEuropeanproject.Increasing
terroristattacksintheWestincludingtheUnitedStatescallintoquestion
currentcounterterrorismstrategies.

Atthesametime,slowgrowthandeconomicdislocationisproducinga
backlashagainstglobalization.Andagainstthebackdropofeconomic
stagnation,isolationistsentimentsinAmericaarehittinglevelsunseensince
theimmediatepost-Vietnamera.

Mostsignificant,amajorpresidentialcandidateischallengingfundamental
assumptionsaboutU.S.foreignpolicy.Consensusbehindanewgrand
strategydidnotquitecohereaftertheColdWar.Butpresidentialcandidates
since1992,whiledifferingontheirapproachestospecificissues,generally
agreedthattheU.S.-ledpostwararchitectureshouldbepreservedandthat
Americanleadershipwasnecessarytorespondselectivelytoglobalcrises
andtokeepthepeaceamongmajorpowers.

DonaldTrumpisdifferent.Trump'spronouncementsaremorethananattack
onHillaryClintonsworldview.Althoughstatedinprovocativeandunorthodox
ways,hetakesissuewithmanyofthetenetsthathaveguidedU.S.foreign
policyacrossbothRepublicanandDemocraticadministrationssincetheend
oftheColdWar.Whatwearewitnessingisnothinglessthanthebirthofa
TrumpDoctrine,onethatcallsforabreakfromthestatusquoonatleastfive
mainissues:U.S.goals,counteringtheterroristgroupISISandIslamist
extremism,democracypromotion,immigrationandgreat-powerrelations.

U.S.Goals:TrumpssloganAmericaFirstharkensbacktothe
isolationistsofthepre-WorldWarIIera.Trump,however,isnotan
isolationist.Quitethecontrary.Hefavorsalargedefensebudgetandwants
toensurethatAmericaremainstheworldssolemilitaryandeconomic
superpower.Rather,AmericaFirstisTrumpswayofattackingglobalism.
Theterm"globalism"encapsulates,forTrump,themyriadpoliciesthathe
believesareexpendingAmericanresourcesonbehalfofgoalsincidentalto
coreU.S.interests.

ItisintherealmofinternationaleconomicsinparticularthatTrumpis
soundingthealarmofglobalism.U.S.presidentssincetheendofWorldWar
IIhavetakentheviewthateconomicintegrationandfreetradearewin-win
propositionsthatbothfurtherglobalsecurityandbenefitAmericaninterests,
foreignanddomestic.TrumpsAmericaFirstviewismorezero-sumand
nationalistic.HebelievesthattheUnitedStatesnaivelypracticesfreetrade
whileothercountriesgainundueadvantagethroughmercantilistpractices.
HebelievesmanytradeagreementshavedamagedAmericanegatively
affectingU.S.workersandthemiddleclassbyfacilitatingmovementof
manufacturingjobsfromtheUnitedStatestoothercountriessuchasChina
andMexico.Hebelievesthattheseandrelatedpoliciesareproducingslow
economicgrowth,hugedebtandunderminingtheunderpinningsofU.S
economicpower.

TrumpisintentonprioritizingU.S.economicinterests.He,forexample,will
renegotiateNAFTAandabandonthecurrenttextoftheTrans-Pacific
PartnershipinordertoreassertU.S.sovereigntyandprotectandexpand
U.S.manufacturingandemployment.

CounteringISISandIslamicExtremism:Trumpappearstoseethethreat
ofISISandIslamistextremismasurgentandtheprincipalcurrentthreatto
theUnitedStates.HebelievesthatPresidentObamaandcandidateClinton
failtorecognizethenatureoftheproblemthatISISandal-Qaidaare
Islamistterroristgroupsandacceptthatwehavetolivewiththethreatis
unacceptable.HehassaidthataTrumpadministrationwillseektodefeat
ISISquicklyandtoeliminateitsthreattotheUnitedStates,rejectingthe
notionthatweshouldlearntolivewiththethreat.HewantsU.S.alliancesto
focusonthethreatofIslamistterrorismandalsoiswillingtocooperatewith
Russiatodefeatit.HeiswillingtousemoreU.S.forcesandtoadoptmore
aggressivetactics.Heappearstofavorusingalotofforceagainstterrorist
targetsintheMiddleEastbutthengetoutratherthanmaintainasignificant
roleonthegroundforyears.HealsowantstoreviewU.S.immigrationand
visapolicyaswelldomesticlawenforcementpoliciestodealwiththisthreat.

Immigration:Trumpalsodepartsfromtheestablishmentonbothlegaland
illegalimmigration.Hewantstobreakthecycleofmillionsofillegals
becominglegalizedeveryfewdecadesindealsthatincludecommitmentsto
controlillegalimmigrationcommitmentsthatalwaysgounfulfilled.Hisoften
usedimageryofawallexpressesthedeterminationtobreakthatcycleby
whatevermeansarenecessary.

Onlegalimmigration,itappearsthatTrumpwouldliketoreducetheflowand
perhapschangethecriteriaforwhowouldbeadmitted.Hearguesthat
reducingandchangingcriteriaforlegalimmigrationwouldresultin
increasedemploymentforAmericansandlegalresidents,particularlyinthe
lowerendoftheincomespectrum.HisconcernsaboutISISusingflowsof
refugeestoinfiltrateterroristsintotheUnitedStatesledhimtocallfor
suspendingvisasforallMuslimsuntilaprocesswasestablishedforreliable
vetting,whichlaterhemodifiedtotemporarilysuspendingadmissionof
visitorsandimmigrantsfromterror-afflictedcountries.

TrumpappearstofearEuropesproblemsreplicatingthemselvesinthe
UnitedStates.InEurope,thecontinentisinthemidstofapotentially
dangerousparadigmshift.Accordingtosomeestimates,morethan700,000
AfricansarewaitinginLibyatomovetoEurope,withmillionsmorelikelyto
followtheirpathgivenpopulationgrowthandeconomicandpoliticalcriseson
thecontinent.Thiscouldeventuallydwarfthealreadydestabilizingcurrent
andfutureflowsfromconflictsintheMiddleEastandSouthAsia.Thiswould
inevitablyhavehugeimpactsindomesticpoliticsandsecurityinEurope.

Great-PowerRelations:Trumpisenvisioninganeweraofgreat-power
relations.HefavorsalesstruculentapproachtoRussiathanHillaryClinton.
WhileotherpresidentshavepursuedcommonunderstandingswithMoscow,
Trumpenvisionsperhapsamoresweepingparadigmshiftandperhapsa
newgrandbargain:acceptanceofsomekindofasphereofinfluencefor
MoscowinpartsofitsimmediateneighborhoodinexchangeforRussian
cooperationonissuesimportanttotheUnitedStateswithregardstowaron
terror,Syria,andtheAsianbalanceofpower.InhisviewofRussia,hemay
beclosertoPresidentFranklinDelanoRooseveltsattitudetowardtheSoviet
UnionthantheapproachofanysubsequentAmericanpresident.

DuetostrongpressurefromTrumpcampaignofficials,forexample,the
Republicanplatformdroppedanendorsementoftheprovisionoflethal
defensivearmsandassistancetoUkraine.Trumpsrecentstatementthat
calledintoquestionAmericasguaranteetoNATOalliesunderArticleVif
theyarenotmeetingtheirowndefenseobligationscreatedafuror.Trump
madeitclearthathewantstouseitasabargainingtooltoforcealliestopay
fortheirdefense,andhasalsostatedthathewantstopreserveNATO.

WithChina,bycontrast,theTrumpDoctrinewouldpursueamuchharder
line.HehaspromisedtoplaceChinaseconomicpracticesitsalleged
currencymanipulation,lackofintellectual-propertyprotections,and
economicespionageatthecenterofthebilateralrelationship.Economic
pressure,Trumpbelieves,wouldnotonlyaddressU.S.domesticconcerns
suchasthelossofmanufacturingjobsitwouldalsoprovideameansby
whichWashingtoncouldelicitChinesecooperationonsecurityconcerns
suchastheNorthKoreannuclearprogram.

Great-powerrelationsmayalsoshiftinthecontextofU.S.relationswithits
traditionalallies.TrumpishardlythefirstAmericanpoliticalfiguretogripe
aboutourallies'free-riding.WhatdistinguishesTrump,however,isthe
degreetowhichheisconsumedwiththeissue.WhileU.S.presidentshave
tendedtoacceptfreeloadingasapriceworthpayingforanetworkof
alliancesthatunderwritesinternationalsecurityandpreservesU.S.global
leadership,TrumpispreparedtowieldU.S.leveragetoensurethatU.S.
alliancespaytheirfairshare.

DemocracyPromotion:ParticularlysincetheReaganyears,democracy
promotionhasbecomeacentraltenetofU.S.foreignpolicy.Policymakers
havegenerallyreachedtheconclusionthatthespreadofdemocracyand
humanrightsisnotonlyconsistentwithAmericanideals,butalsocontributes
toamorepeacefulworld.WhenmilitaryoperationsinAfghanistanandIraq
wereundertakentooverthrowregimesposingserioussecurityproblems,
bipartisancoalitionssupportedtheinstallationofdemocraticgovernmentsto
reestablishpoliticalauthority.Theconsensuswasthatdemocraticidealshave
universalappealandcantakeholdacrosscountriesandregionswith
differenthistoriesandcultures.

WhenTrumpalludestodemocracypromotion,hedoessomostlyinthe
contextofhissharpattacksonnation-buildingandregimechange.Inhis
RepublicanNationalConventionspeech,forexample,helambastedtheU.S.
decisiontosupporttheoverthrowofdictatorshipsinIraq,Libya,Egyptand
Syria,arguingthattheseeffortsunderminedstabilityandU.S.
counterterrorismpriorities.Trumppledgedunequivocallytoabandonthe
failedpolicyofnationbuildingandregimechange.

Trumpisraisingseriousissuesthatdeservetobedebated.Howprecisely
wouldhepursuehisvisionatapracticallevel,andhowwouldheminimize
thenegative,perhapsunintended,consequencesofhisproposals?

Achievinggreaterburdensharingandfocusingouralliancesoncurrent
threatswouldbepositive.However,thechallengeishowtoachievethisgoal
withoutshakingconfidenceintheUnitedStates.Itisclearthatourcurrent
approachhasnotachievedtherightbalancebothonupdatingthealliances
andonburdensharing.Butthereistheriskthatunderminingconfidencein
theUnitedStatesanditsalliancescouldproducescenariossuchas
renationalizationofsecuritypoliciesbygreatpowers,similartothesituation
beforeWorldWarII,includingthenuclearizationofalliedcountries.

Trumphasexpressedsympathy,ifnotoutrightsupport,fornationalistforces
inEurope.Buthehasnotexplainedhowthesetrendswillredoundtothe
benefitoftheUnitedStates.ItwouldnotserveU.S.interestsforthenext
administrationtoexacerbatexenophobicsentimentsontheContinentthrough
protectionismandincendiaryrhetoricaboutburdensharing.

RevisionistpowerssuchasRussiaandChinawouldbecomemore
aggressiveasU.S.-ledalliancesweakenbecausetheylosecredibility.What
wouldaTrumpadministrationdotominimizesuchthreats?

EvenwithamoreaccommodatingpolicytowardRussia,wehavetoavoid
underminingrelationswithEuropeanalliesandcompromisingthesovereignty
ofstatessuchasUkraineandGeorgia.FarfrombeingapathwaytoU.S.-
Russiacooperation,thereistheriskthattheTrumpDoctrinesstepback
fromUkrainecouldopenthedoortofurtherincursionsbyRussiaagainstits
Europeanneighbors.

GiventhecurrentChineseleaderspushforregionalhegemony,theUnited
StatesneedsabalanceofpowerapproachinAsiansecuritywithJapan,
India,Vietnamandotherregionalpowerplayingabalancingroleandthe
U.S.astheultimatebalancer.HowwouldaTrumpadministrationengineer
thisbalance?

AfterWorldWarII,theUnitedStatesunderwentaparadigmshiftinits
foreignpoliciesremainingdeeplyengagedinunstableregionstomaintain
great-powerpeace.Todevelopthedetailsofthisnewparadigm,theTruman
andEisenhoweradministrationsdevelopedsomeofthemostimportant
internalandexternalinstitutionsoftheColdWarera.Theyalsoengagedin
bipartisandeliberationsinvolvingleadersofboththeexecutiveandlegislative
branches,drawingonexpertisefrominsideandoutsideofgovernment.Such
aprocesstoarriveatabipartisanconsensusisnecessaryregardlessofwho
becomesourPresident.

Trumpscritiqueoffreetradehasitsmerits.Ittakesinordinatetimeand
expenseforAmericanfirmstodocumentandlitigateunfairtradepractices
suchasdumpingunderthecurrentprocess.Theriskisthatbythetimethey
secureajudgment,theirmercantilistcompetitorshaveharmedthem
irreparably.Andtherehasbeennoresponsetotheproblemofcurrency
manipulation.However,Trumpneedstoarticulatehowhewoulddesigna
moreeffectiveenforcementprocessfortradeagreementsandhowhewould
avoidroundsoftit-for-tatretaliationleadingtotradewars.Asmanyhave
said,Americahas5percentoftheworldspopulation,anditsprosperity
dependsonsellingtotheother95percent.

Onimmigration,itiscertainlytimeforareviewofnotonlywhomweallow
intothecountry,butwhoespeciallywewishtoattractthebestandthe
brightestfromaroundtheworldandindividualswhosubscribetoAmericas
corevalues.Anupdatedimmigrationstrategyisrequired,andcontrolofthe
borderandwhocomestothecountryisalsoamust,asisdevelopinga
systemtopolicevisaoverstays.Theglobalpopulationmovementmakesthis
necessary.WeneedtoworktogetherwithourEuropeanalliestoassistthem
indevelopingappropriatestrategiesforthecomingpotentialfloodof
refugeesandthefutureofAfricaasanurgentmatter.

Yet,Trumpssometimesinflammatoryrhetorichasunderminedhisabilityto
workwithallgroupsinAmericansocietyonthisquestion.Asacandidate
and,ifhewins,asapresident,hemustshedthisdivisiveapproach,whichis
counterproductivetofindingtheneededconsensusonawayforward.

Ondemocracypromotion,Ijudgethatthegoalofademocratizedworldasa
long-termobjectiveremainsvalid.Buthowthisgoalispursued,especially
givenrecentsetbacks,isanimportantquestion.Itneedstobedebated
recognizingthattheprocessofbuildinganeffectiveliberaldemocracytakes
timeasitdidinourowncountry.Thepathtoopenpoliticalsystemswill
varyaccordingtothedifferenthistories,cultures,andcircumstancesofour
partners.Itrequiresustoworkpatientlywithleadersandsocietiesof
aspiringdemocraciesandnottoabandonthemwhentheyexperience
setbacks.

Onstrategyandtactics,perhapsadifferentiatedapproachwouldbethe
best.Weshouldemphasizestabilityandconflictresolutioninplacessuchas
theMiddleEastandAfrica.Weshouldworktoconsolidatedemocratization
inotherregionssuchaspartsofEurope,partsofAsiaandtheAmericas,
wheredemocraticinstitutionshavefaltered.Also,itwouldbebeneficialto
reviewwhetherourinstitutionsinvolvedindemocracybuildingareeffective
andmakethenecessaryreforms.

OncounteringIslamistterrorism,notwithstandinghisrefusaltoengagein
nation-buildingandkeeptogetinvolvedinprotractedconflictandpolicing,
TrumphasvowedtodestroyISISwithinamatterofmonths.Ifhisintentisto
liberateISIS-heldareassuchasMosulinIraqandRaqqainSyria,the
questionishowhewilldoso.AgoodoptionistofollowtheAfghanmodel,
embeddingU.S.andcoalitionSpecialForceswithlocalfightersandapplying
significantairpoweragainstISIStargets.However,thequestionofwhat
happenstotheareasliberatedfromISISmustbeanswered.How,without
state-buildingandnewpower-sharingarrangementsinIraqandSyria,would
aTrumpadministrationpreventsegmentsoftheSunniArabpopulationfrom
gravitatingtoyetanother(andperhapsevenmorevicious)terroristgroup?
Afterall,ISISisthesuccessortotheterroristgroupAlQaedainIraq.There
isalsothebroaderquestionofhowtochangefailedpoliciesindealingwith
statesponsorsofterroristandextremistgroupssuchasPakistan.

Evenifweavoidlargestate-andnation-buildingprojectssuchasIraqand
Afghanistan,weneedtopreservethecapacity,acquiredatenormouscost
basedonexperienceinIraqandAfghanistan,toassistinlimitedstate
buildingtohelpfriendlyforcescontrolterritorieswhichhavestrategicvalue.
NotdoingsowouldmeanoverlearningthelessonsofIraqandAfghanistan
andriskcreatingvacuumsinwhichterroristscouldestablishsanctuaries.
Suchamistake,inturn,mightrequirealargerinterventionandoccupationof
suchterritoriestorootoutterroristforces,ashappenedafter9/11.

TheobjectiveofgettingRussiatoworkwithustodefeatISISisdesirable
butthereisnoguaranteethatMoscowwilldoso.Previouseffortsat
achievingU.S.-RussiancooperationbyBushandObamaadministrations
havenotsucceeded.WhatisthebasisforTrumpsconfidencethathewill
succeedifandwhenheistheU.S.president?

ItisimperativethattheTrumpcampaignnotleavethesequestions
unanswered.ThisisbecauseTrumpsfundamentalcritiquehasmerit:
Americaschallengesathomedrivenbyunprecedenteddebt,weak
economicgrowth,racialandclassdivisions,andgrowingeconomic
inequalitydoindeedthreatenU.S.primacyabroad.Hehasraisedthese
issuesinauniquelyprovocativemanner.Hisboldnessmustnowbematched
withwisesolutions.

TrumpspeaksformillionsofAmericanswithhisunfetteredattacksonan
establishmentthathas,infact,madeitsshareoferrors.Forthis,hehas
beenawardedtheRepublicannominationforpresident.Now,justthree
monthsbeforehispossibleelectionasCommanderinChief,hehasour
attention.Itistimeforhimtopivottoamoreseriousdialoguewithmore
detailsonhowtodealwiththeseissues.Regardlessoftheoutcomeofthe
generalelection,theissuesthathehasraisedandthesentimentstowhich
hehaslenthisvoicearenotgoingaway.

ZalmayKhalilzadisaCounseloratCSIS.HewastheUSAmbassadorin
Afghanistan,IraqandtheUN.Heistheauthorofanewbook:TheEnvoy:
FromKabultotheWhiteHouse:MyJourneythroughaTurbulentWorld.St
Martin'sPress.

followonTwitter|friendonFacebook|forwardtoafriend

unsubscribefromthislist|updatesubscriptionpreferences
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/01/201610:33:14AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UAinNYT+9More
Subject: Stories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREE
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From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,August01,20169:24AM
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----------Forwardedmessage----------
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Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at12:23PM
Subject:Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT
&UAinNYT+9MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfrom
DailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREEAMIGOSFORANINSANEWORLD(JA-DT-VP)'[ZKinNationalInterestTries
toDissectan'EmergingTrumpDoctrine'
To:

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From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at12:21PM
Subject:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UA
inNYT+9MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDaily
Beast]THESTORYOF'THREEAMIGOSFORANINSANEWORLD(JA-DT-VP)'[ZKinNationalInterestTriesto
Dissectan'EmergingTrumpDoctrine'
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at11:00AM
Subject:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

ODnote:Readingthearticlesbelow,Icouldnthelpbutreflectthattoday,August1,2016marksthe41stanniversary
ofthesigningoftheHelsinkiFinalAct.WithitsillegaloccupationofCrimeaandaggressionineasternUkraine,
RussiacontinuestoflagrantlyflouteverysingleoneoftheOSCEprinciplesenshrinedinthisseminalagreement,
includingterritorialintegrity,inviolabilityofborders,andsovereignty.Heretofore,everymajorpartypresidential
candidatehassupportedthetenetsfoundintheHelsinkiFinalAct(includingtwoRepublicanBobDoleand
DemocratHillaryClinton-whoasSenatorsatsomepointduringtheirtenuresservedontheHelsinkiCommission).

TheNewYorkTimes
DonaldTrumpGivesQuestionableExplanationofEventsinUkraine

ByDAVIDE.SANGERandMAGGIEHABERMANJULY31,2016(August1,2016printedition)

Continuereadingthemainstory

DonaldJ.TrumponSundayofferedamuddledexplanationofhisviewsaboutthe2014annexationofCrimeaby
RussiaanditscontinuedeffortstoundermineUkrainescontrolofotherpartsofthecountry,andheamplifiedhis
earliersuggestionthat,ifelectedpresident,hemightrecognizeRussiasclaimandendsanctionsagainstit.

InaninterviewwithGeorgeStephanopoulosontheABCNewsprogramThisWeek,Mr.Trumpsaidthatifhewere
president,PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.Hethenbackpedaledwhen
Mr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefornearlytwoyears.

HesnotgoingintoUkraine,O.K.,justsoyouunderstand,Mr.Trump,theRepublicannominee,saidwhentheissue
cameup.HesnotgoingtogointoUkraine,allright?Youcanmarkitdown.Youcanputitdown.Youcantakeit
anywhereyouwant.

Well,hesalreadythere,isnthe?Mr.Stephanopoulosinterrupted.

O.K.,well,hesthereinacertainway,Mr.Trumpreplied.ButImnotthere.YouhaveObamathere.Andfrankly,
thatwholepartoftheworldisamessunderObamawithallthestrengththatyouretalkingaboutandallofthepower
ofNATOandallofthis.Inthemeantime,hesgoingaway.HetaketakesCrimea.

InterpretingMr.TrumpsstatementswhatheunderstandsaboutthecurrentstatusofUkraine,aformerSoviet
republic,andhowitwouldchangeinaTrumpadministrationisdifficultgiventhefracturednatureoftheexchange.
ButtheyweresignificantbecauseMr.TrumphasseeminglyembracedMr.Putin,repeatedlycalledforbetterrelations
withRussiaandshownanunwillingnesstocondemnMr.PutinforhisaggressiveactionsagainstRussiasneighbors
anditscrackdownsonfreedomsathome.

QuestionshavebeenraisedaboutthewateringdownofasectionoftheRepublicanplatformdealingwithUkraine
amidevidencethatwordingtosupportsendinglethalweaponstotheUkrainiangovernmentwasremovedfromthe
text.

Notsince1976,whenPresidentGeraldFordcommittedamajorgaffeinoneofhisdebateswithJimmyCarter,
declaringthatthereisnoSovietdominationofEasternEurope,hastheissueofAmericansupportofEastern
Europeanstates,boththoseinNATOandthoseoutsideit,emergedasamajorpresidentialcampaignissue.Itwas
enormouslyharmfultoMr.Ford,becausehisstatementseemedtosuggestthathedidnotunderstandthegeopolitics
oftheregion,whichhisstaffdenied.

Ukrainebecameaseparatenationin1991afterthefalloftheBerlinWallandthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.It
steadilyflirtedwiththeWestandwithNATO,andRussianofficialsfeareditwouldbepulledoutofMoscowsorbit.
Butapro-Russianpresident,ViktorF.Yanukovych,wasdemocraticallyelectedin2010andremainedinpoweruntil
hewasoustedin2014,ultimatelytakingupexileinRussia.

Mr.Yanukovychhadhiredalobbyingfirmco-foundedbyPaulManafort,nowMr.Trumpscampaignmanager,to
improvehisimageintheWestandavoidpunishmentforveeringtowardRussia.

TheannexationofCrimeain2014wasseenasbothapowergrabandalandgrabbyMr.Putin.Itwascondemned
bytheUnitedStatesanditsEuropeanallies,whichallissuedsanctions.Sincethen,Russiantroops,oftenoutof
uniform,havebeenseen,andsometimeskilled,inRussian-speakingpartsofUkrainewhereapro-Russiainsurgency
hasfoughtthecurrentUkrainiangovernment.
RepublicansinCongresshavelongpressedformoreassistancetoUkrainetopushbackagainstMr.Putin,including
lethalaid.ButallreferencestogivinglethalaidtotheUkrainiangovernmentwerekeptoutofthepartyplatform.

InearlyJuly,adelegateofferedaplatformamendmenttosupportlethalaid.AdelegateforSenatorTedCruzfrom
Texas,DianaDenman,saidinaninterviewthatshehadpushedforinclusionofthelanguage.ButMs.Denmansaidher
amendment,asproposed,wasnevervotedonbecausetwomenwhowereobservingthepanelsdeliberationsmoved
totabletheamendment,andsuggestedthatitbediscussedlater.

TheyopenlysaidtheywerehiredbytheTrumpcampaignandworkedforMr.Trump,Ms.Denmansaid,adding
thatshedidnotrecalltheirnames.InthefinalversionoftheRepublicanplatform,thewordsaboutweaponswere
droppedandreplacedbythetermappropriateassistance.

Mr.TrumpacknowledgedintheABCinterviewthatthelanguagehadbeenwatereddown,buthesaidhehadnothing
todowithit.(Mr.Manaforthasalsosaidhewasunawareofthematter.)

Iwasntinvolvedinthat,Mr.Trumpsaid.Honestly,Iwasnotinvolved.Butheacknowledgedthathissupporters
were.Theysoftenedit,Iheard,butIwasnotinvolved,hesaid.

Mr.TrumpwentontoarguethatMr.PutinmighthavebeenwelcomeinCrimea,sidesteppingtheissueofwhetherthe
Russianleaderhadviolatedthesovereigntyofanotherstatetotaketheterritory,whereRussiahasamajornavalbase.

ThepeopleofCrimea,fromwhatIveheard,wouldratherbewithRussiathanwheretheywere,Mr.Trumpsaid.
Andyouhavetolookatthat,also.

Hewentontosay,Ukraineisamess,butheputtheblameforthatonMr.Obama,notonMr.Putin.

JakeSullivan,thechiefpolicyadvisertoHillaryClinton,Mr.TrumpsDemocraticopponent,saidtheassessment
reinforcedhislackoftemperamentalfitnessforthepresidency.

TodayhegamelyrepeatedPutinsargumentthatRussiawasjustifiedinseizingthesovereignterritoryofanother
countrybyforce,Mr.Sullivansaid.Thisisscarystuff.Butitshouldntsurpriseus.

FollowDavidE.Sanger@SangerNYTandMaggieHaberman@maggieNYTonTwitter.

BarryMeiercontributedreporting.

TheWashingtonPost
TrumpsuggestsUSacceptRussiasannexationofCrimea

ByAssociatedPress

August1at3:24AM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-suggests-us-accept-russias-annexation-of-crimea/2016/07/31/fc7f14f6-576b-
11e6-8b48-0cb344221131_story.html

WASHINGTONRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpissuggestingtheU.S.acceptRussiasannexationofCrimea
ifitwouldleadtobetterrelationswithMoscowandstrongercooperationinfightingIslamicStatemilitants.

ThatviewrunscountertotheObamaadministration,whichimposedeconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaforannexingtheterritoryin
Ukrainetwoyearsago.TheUnitedNationsalsodoesntwantcountriestorecognizeCrimeaaspartofRussia,andsometop
RepublicansstaunchlydefendCrimeaagainstwhattheyconsiderRussianaggression.

InaninterviewbroadcastSundayonABCsThisWeek,TrumpsuggestedthatthepeopleofCrimeawouldratherbepartof
Russia.However,theU.S.hasntrecognizedthelegitimacyofRussianreferendumsinCrimeaandbelievestheywerenot
conductedfairly.
TrumpalsosaidhewasntinvolvedintheeffortthatsoftenedsupportintheRepublicanPartyplatformonassistingUkraine.
Althoughtheplatformisnotpro-Russia,TrumpsupporterssucceededinpreventingareferencetoarmingUkrainefrombeing
added.

Inthepast,Trumpscampaignmanager,politicalstrategistPaulManafort,lobbiedonbehalfofViktorYanukovych,aUkrainian
presidentandsupporterofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.ManaforthassaidneitherhenoranyoneelsewiththeTrump
campaignpushedfortheplatformchanges.

OnthetopicofPutinandUkraine,theRepublicansaid:HesnotgoingintoUkraine,OK,justsoyouunderstand.Hesnotgonna
gointoUkraine,allright?Youcanmarkitdown.Youcanputitdown.Youcantakeitanywhereyouwant.

ABCsGeorgeStephanopoulossaid,Well,hesalreadythere,isnthe?Trumpreplied,OK.Well,hesthereinacertainway.

TheClintoncampaignpointedtotheexchangetoquestionwhatTrumpknowsaboutthesubjectandarguedthattheRepublicanis
repeatingPutinstalkingpointsonCrimea.

Thisisscarystuff,ClintoncampaignspokesmanJakeSullivansaidinastatement.Butitshouldntsurpriseus.Thiscomeson
theheelsofhistacitinvitationtotheRussianstoinvadeourNATOalliesinEasternEurope.AnditsyetmoreproofwhyDonald
Trumpistemperamentallyunfitandtotallyunqualifiedtobecommanderinchief.

politics

InresponsetootherquestionsaboutU.S.-Russiarelations,Trumpdismissedsuggestionsthathehasanykindofrelationshipwith
Putin,sayinghehasneithermetPutinnorspokenonthephonewithhim.Askedwhyhehadsaidseveraltimesinthepastthathe
hadarelationshipwithPutin,Trumpsaidhedoesntknowwhathavingarelationshipmeans.

Hehassaidnicethingsaboutmeovertheyears,TrumpsaidofPutin.Irememberyearsago,hesaidsomething,manyyears
ago,hesaidsomethingveryniceaboutme.Isaidsomethinggoodabouthimwhen(broadcaster)LarryKingwason.Thiswasa
longtimeago.

TrumpsaiditwouldbeagreatthingiftheUnitedStatesgotalongwithRussiaandifRussiawouldhelpfighttheIslamicState
group.

WellhaveabetterrelationshipwithRussia,hesaid.AndhavingagoodrelationshipwithRussiaisagoodthing,notabad
thing.

(OD:Timedoesnotpermitmetoincludeallarticlesonthissubject,soIvelimitedmyselftothetwoabove)

[ED:ONITEMBELOW..KeyQuoteisfromAmb.Pyatt:

IwasalsoencouragedbytheveryclearfocusontheissueofaccessfortheOSCEmonitorsinEasternUkraine.Its
becomeincreasinglyapparentjustfromreadingtheSMMreportsthatthisisaproblemalmostentirelyonthe
separatist,Russian-controlledsideoftheContactLine.About90percentofaccessdenialshappenonthatsideofthe
line.AndaveryclearmessagefrombothAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikabouttheneedtoaddressthisissue,including
OSCEaccesstotheinternationallyrecognizedborderwhichitvirtuallydoesnothaveatthispoint,outsidetwoisolated
points.AndthataccesstotheborderaspreparationforrestorationoffullUkrainiancontroloftheinternationalborder
whichisanessentialrequirementforfullimplementationoftheMinskAgreements.]

USEmbassyKyiv
http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/statements/pyatt-baer-07292016.html

TelephonicPressBriefingbyU.S.AmbassadortoUkraineGeoffreyPyattandU.S.PermanentRepresentativetothe
OSCEDanielBaer

BrusselsMediaHub
July29,2016
Moderator:ThankyousomuchandgreetingstoeverybodyfromtheU.S.DepartmentofState.Iwouldliketowelcomeallof
youwhohavedialedinonthisFridaymorningfromacrossEuropeandIdliketothankyouforjoiningintodaysdiscussion.

WearepleasedthismorningtobejoinedfromViennabytwodistinguisheddiplomats.WehaveU.S.AmbassadortoUkraine
GeoffreyPyattandU.S.PermanentRepresentativetotheOSCE,AmbassadorDanielBaer.Andofcoursewearingtheir
respectivehatstheywillprovideyouanupdateonthesituationintheUkraine.

WearegoingtobegintodayscallwithopeningremarksfromAmbassadorBaerandthenAmbassadorPyatt,andthenwewill
turntoyourquestions.Andofcourseweregoingtotrytogettoasmanyaswecaninthetimethatwehave.

Asareminder,todayscallisontherecordandwiththatIwillturnitovertoyou,AmbassadorBaer.

AmbassadorBaer:ThankssomuchMireille,andthankyouverymuchtoallofyouwhohavejoinedusacrossseveraltime
zones.Iknowforsomeitsmid-morning,forothersitsyourmorningcupofcoffeeandweappreciateyourjoiningusthis
morning.

Justrealquickatthetop,yesterdaywehadameetinginthePermanentCouncilwhereAmbassadorMartinSajdikwhohasbeen
leadingtheTri-LevelContactGroupthatismadeupofOSCEasamediatorandRussiaandUkraineandthathastheseworking
groupsthathavebeenoperatinginMinskovermanymonthsnow,aswellasfromAmbassadorApakanwhoistheleaderofthe
OSCESpecialMonitoringMissioninUkraine.Bothofthemgaveaunitedmessageabouttheimportanceofachievinga
reinstatementoftheceasefireasafirststeptowardsanyfurtherprogressinreachingadiplomaticorpoliticalsituation.

ThesenseintheroomIthinkfromtheother56PermanentRepresentativesaswellasourdelegationwasthatthesituationhas
gottendramaticallyworseinthelastweeks.Wereseeingcasualtiesataratethatwehaventseenforayearnow.Andthefirst
stephasbeenthistalkaboutadisengagementplanthatwouldbedisengagementatseveralhotspotsalongtheLineofContact.

Unfortunately,therewasanefforttoreachanagreementonthedisengagementplanthisweekinMinsk.AmbassadorSajdik
reportedthattheywill,andAmbassadorApakan,reportedthattheywillmakeanotherattemptnextweekinMinsktogetthat
disengagementplanengaged.

ButIthinkoneofthethingsthatbecomesevercleareristhatweneedtoseewordsmatchedwithactions.TheRussianFederation
yesterdayagainclaimedthattheywanteddisengagement.TheyevenaskedthattheSMM,themonitoringmission,spendmore
timemonitoringonbothsidesoftheLineofContact.Butonthegroundweseeaverydifferentpicture.Weseecontinued
resupplyofweaponsandfighters.Weseecontinuedprovocationstokeeptheconflictgoing.Weseecontinuedrestrictionsofthe
SMManditsmonitors.Weseecontinuedshoot-downsofSMMUAVsaftertheyveseenRussianweaponry,heavyweaponsin
areaswhereitshouldntbe.

AndsothemessagethatwasdeliveredtotheRussianFederationyesterdaybymany,manyparticipatingstatesinthePermanent
Councilwasitstimetomatchyourwordswithactionandtogetthatdisengagementontheground.Thedisengagementisonlya
firststepthathastobeconsolidatedandbuiltintoarealceasefire.Therehastobemonitoringontheborder,andallofthose
thingsareanecessarypreconditioninordertoenablethediplomaticandpoliticalprocesstomoveforward.

IwillstopthereandturnitovertoAmbassadorPyatt.

AmbassadorPyatt:Great.Thankyou,Dan.

FirstofallletmesaywhatapleasureitistobehereinVienna.AmbassadorBaerhasbeenaskingmetodothisvisitforabout
twoyearsnowandIfinallygotaroundtoit.

Forme,inpartitwasachancetoexpressdeepappreciationforthepartnershipIveenjoyedwithAmbassadorsApakanand
Sajdik.IthinktheOSCEdoesnotgetallthepubliccredititdeservesfortheessential,courageousrolethatithasplayedin
Ukraine.OSCEactionshavesavedlivesoverthepasttwoandahalfyears.

ItwasalsoachanceformetoseeoneofthePermanentCouncilsandsortoftakethetemperatureofadiscussionwiththedaily
realitythatIlivewith.IwillsayIwasparticularlyencouragedbytheverystrongstatementfromtheEuropeanUnionandthe
messagefromourmanyEuropeanpartnersabouttheimportanceofRussiasactions,andaveryclearmessagethattherelaxation
ofsanctionswillbelinkedtothefullimplementationbytheRussianFederationoftheMinskagreements.

IwasalsoencouragedbytheveryclearfocusontheissueofaccessfortheOSCEmonitorsinEasternUkraine.Itsbecome
increasinglyapparentjustfromreadingtheSMMreportsthatthisisaproblemalmostentirelyontheseparatist,Russian-
controlledsideoftheContactLine.About90percentofaccessdenialshappenonthatsideoftheline.Andaveryclearmessage
frombothAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikabouttheneedtoaddressthisissue,includingOSCEaccesstotheinternationally
recognizedborderwhichitvirtuallydoesnothaveatthispoint,outsidetwoisolatedpoints.Andthataccesstotheborderas
preparationforrestorationoffullUkrainiancontroloftheinternationalborderwhichisanessentialrequirementforfull
implementationoftheMinskAgreements.

TheotherpointthatIconveyed,asidefromreaffirmingthemessagesthatcamefromAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikaboutthe
deterioratingmilitarysituation,wasalsoourconcernaboutthecontinuedpresenceofRussianorigintroopsandequipmenton
Ukrainianterritory.Andtheintroductionofsomenewweaponsystemswhichwebelieveisatleastpartiallytheexplanationforthe
alarmingspikeinviolenceandcasualtiesthatweveseeninrecentweeks.

Soagain,Illbehappytotakequestionsinwhateverdirectionisusefultopeople.

Moderator:Thankyouverymuch.Thankstobothofyouforsettingthestageforus.

Wearenowgoingtogotothequestionandanswerportionoftodayscall.IbelieveAnnaKorbutisthefirstinthequeuewiththe
UkrainianWeekly.

Question:ThisisAnnaKorbutfromtheUkrainianWeek.IhaveaquestionforbothAmbassadors.

Inyouropinion,whatisthepossibilityofplacingthearmedOSCE,thearmedmissionpoliceintheoccupiedpartsoftheDonbas
alongtheborderandalongtheContactLineandisthatoptionbeingdiscussed?Thankyou.

AmbassadorBaer:AsIsaid,thefocusrightnowisonrestoringtheceasefireandgettingastable,sustainedceasefirebecause
thatisapreconditionforeverythingelse.

Oneoftheconversationsthatshappeninghereandinotherplacesaswell,isobviouslyoneofthepartsoftheMinskAgreements
thatmanyofushavebeenfocusedonisthecommitmenttohavefreeandfairelectionsaccordingtointernationalstandardsand
observedbytheOSCE,byODIHR,andtohavethoselocalelectionsintheareasoftheDonbasthatarecurrentlycontrolledby
Russianseparatists.

IthinkoncetheresaceasefireontheLineofContact,oncetheresasustainedceasefireontheLineofContact,itwillbe
necessarytoassesswhatfurtherenhancementtosecurityisnecessaryinordertohavefreeandfairelections.Butthefirststep,no
matterwhat,isaceasefire.Andtobecrystalclear,theSMM,thecurrentmonitoringmission,hasamandate.Itisacivilian
monitoringmissionwithunarmedmonitors.AndtheSMMhasamissionitshouldcontinuetodowhatitsdoing.Itshoulddoits
mission.Welltakealook,wellhavetodoanassessmentoncethereisasustainedceasefireaboutwhatadditionaltoolsmaybe
necessaryandmaybepossible,andobviouslyoneofthethingsthathasbeentalkedaboutbysomepeopleisapolicemissionor
securitypresenceofsomesort.Thatmaybenecessary.ButtheSMMwillcontinuetobeacivilian,unarmedmission.Ithink
thatstheimportantpointfortoday.

Moderator:Thankyou.OurnextquestioniscomingtousfromGermanysARD.WehaveThomasNehlsontheline.Thomas,
goahead.

Question:BothAmbassadorsmentionedthegapbetweenspeakingandactingontheRussianside,butIwonderwhetherthere
couldbealsosomethingmissedontheUkraineside.Whatisthesituation,whatisthestatusinthefieldoftheautonomytalks?I
meanisanothercondition,thepeopleintheoccupiedterritoriesalsomention.Whatareweuptorightnow?

Andthesecondquestion,ifImay,isthereanyburdentoyouwhonegotiateveryhardandtoughthroughwhatMr.Trumpsaid.I
meanitsnotanobody,andhewasgoingto,asfarasIknow,toaccepttheannexingofCrimea.

AmbassadorPyatt:ThisisGeoffPyatt.

Ithink,Thomas,onyourimportantquestion,andyoureright,thereareobligationswhichUkraineundertookaspartoftheMinsk
Agreement.ButthesimplefactisUkrainehasexecutedthevastmajorityofitsobligations.AndPresidentPoroshenkohas
reaffirmedthosecommitmentspubliclyandprivatelyjustoverthepastfewdays.

Ukrainehaspassedanamnestylaw.Ukrainehashadthefirstreadingofaconstitutionalamendment.Ukrainehaspasseda
specialstatuslaw.ButitsveryclearthatRussiahasnotdischargeditsobligations.Thetroopsandequipmenthavenotbeen
withdrawn.Aceasefirehasnotbeenimplemented.Allhostageshavenotbeenreleased.AndtheUkrainianpositionwhichthe
UnitedStatessupports,isthatthefirsttasknow,asAmbassadorBaersaid,istherestorationoftheceasefire.Oncethats
accomplished,wehopethattherecanbeastepbystepprocessofimplementationofthefurtherstepsrequiredunderMinsk.That
isanapproachthatwehaveheardfromChancellorMerkel,fromPresidentHollande,andIshouldaddtheUnitedStatesisputting
maximumeffortintoreinforcingandsupportingtheeffortsofouralliesintheNormandyGroup.Infactthiswasatopicof
conversationjustthisweekbetweenPresidentObamaandChancellorMerkel,anditsnotacoincidencethatthatphonecallwith
theWhiteHousefollowedalmostimmediatelyonaphonecallbetweenChancellorMerkelandPresidentPoroshenko.

SoweareverycloselylashedupinKyivwithouralliesandIknowthatsthecasehereinViennaaswell.

AmbassadorBaer:ThisisDanBaer.

Youllforgivemefornotbeingabletogoonatlengthonyoursecondquestion,butIdothinkitsimportant.Obviouslyweknow
peoplearefollowingcloselythecampaignathome,andAmericancampaignsarealwayscolorfulandfuntowatch.ButIthinkits
importantforpeopletorememberthatAmericanforeignpolicywithrespecttoEuropeansecurityhasactuallybeenremarkably
consistentovermanydecadesthroughDemocraticandRepublicanadministrations,includingoursteadfastcommitmenttoNATO
asabedrockofsecurityintheEuropeanspaceourcommitmenttointernationallaw,andIthinktheenduringinterestofnotonly
Americancitizensbutcitizensofallothercountriesinhavingarules-basedsystemthatincludestherespectforterritorialintegrity
andnotchangingbordersbyforcewillcontinuethroughthenextpresidentandthepresidentafterthat.SoIthinkitsimportantfor
peopletokeepaneyeonboththelonghistorythatwehaveinourcommitmenttoEuropeansecurityaswellasthelonggame
goingforward.

Moderator:Thankyou.

ForournextquestionweregoingtojumpovertoGreeceandwehaveKostasMavraganisfromHuffingtonPostGreeceonthe
line.

Question:HellofromGreece.

SomequestionsforAmbassadorPyatt.InlightofyoubecomingthenewU.S.AmbassadorinGreece,Iwouldaskyouto
commentonthepossiblerepercussionsofthecoupattemptTurkeyonGreco-Turkishrelations.Aretensionstobeexpected?

AndalsowhataboutU.S.-TurkishrelationsandRussia-Turkishrelations?Inadditiontothese,whatistheU.S.positiononthe
matterofTurkishofficersseekingpoliticalasyluminGreece?

AmbassadorPyatt:Thankyouforthequestions.IverymuchlookforwardtomeetingyouwhenImonthegroundinAthens
andtakeoverasU.S.AmbassadortoGreece.

Fornow,ImstillAmbassadortoUkrainethough,soIhopeyoullforgivemeifIpassonyourquestions,defertomyfriendand
colleagueAmbassadorPearceonthosethingsfornow.

IwillsaythoughonthesortofmovethatIwillbemakinginthenextcoupleofweeks,itisstrikingtomeasIgettomovetothe
countrythatisthebirthplaceofdemocracy,tocomefromacountry,Ukraine,wherepeoplehavestruggledsovaliantlyoverthe
pasttwoyearstobothaffirmtheirdemocracybutalsobepartofalargerEuropeancommunity.AndIthinktheonepiecethatI
wanttospendsometimethinkingaboutasImanagethistransitionmyselfisthereallyremarkablestorythatIvelivedthroughand
seenoverthepastthreeyearswhichisUkrainiansmakingextraordinarysacrificesinpursuitofavisionofEuropeanvaluesand
Europeaninstitutionsthatisquitepowerfulandenormouslyattractive.AndIthinkitsworththinkingaboutinthecontextofthis
largerdebateoverEuropeaninstitutions.ItsworthbearinginmindthatforaverylargecountryattheheartofEurope,acountry
of45millionpeople,howverycompellingtheEuropeanpackagestillis.

Soletmeleaveitonthat.Andagain,Iapologize.IwillbeveryhappytoengagewithyouontheGreece-specificquestionsbut
ImgoingtowaituntilImactuallydoingthatjob.

Moderator:Thanks.

NowweregoingtomoveovertoRomania,andwehaveDragosCosicfromDigi24ontheline.

Question:Thankyouverymuch.IhavetwoquestionsforbothoftheAmbassadors.

RomaniaisveryconcernedaboutthesecurityintheBlackSea.Iwouldliketoknowyourassessmentsaboutthisissue.

Andalso,IwouldliketoaskyouaboutthesecurityinotherpartsofUkraine.Wesawdifferentnewsaboutsomemovementsfor
exampleintheWesternpart,andalsoRomaniasinterestinthesouthernpart,citieslikeOdessa.Thankyouverymuch.

AmbassadorPyatt:Thankyouverymuch,Dragos.Firstofall,IshouldsayRomaniahasbeenagoodpartner.IwasinOdessa
justlastweekendforalargemaritimeexercisethatUkrainewashostingalongwiththeUnitedStates,butRomaniawasalsovery
prominentthere.Youhadashipinport.TherewereacoupleofRomanianofficersatareceptionIhostedonSundaynight.

WetooareveryinterestedandveryengagedonthesequestionsofBlackSeasecurity.Thatwaspartofthemessageofthevery
largeSeaBreezeexercisewhichweallparticipatedin.Designedtobothbuildinteroperabilityandthereweresomeverycomplex
aspects,unusuallycomplexaspectstothisyearsexerciseincludingabeachlandingveryclosetowhatusedtobeRomania,down
inBessarabia.ButalsotoraiseUkrainiancapacity,especiallyinlightoftheillegaloccupationandannexationofCrimeaand
everythingthatflowedfromthat.

Sothatwillcontinuetobeourapproach.Wearegoingtocontinue,ImspeakingfortheUnitedStates,continuetohaveavery
forthrightandclearviewontheillegalstatusofRussiasactionsinCrimea.

OntherestofUkraine,Iknowitshardtobelievesometimesfollowingtheheadlineswhichareunderstandablyfocusedonwhats
happeninginDonbas.ThepointIwouldmakeabouttherestofUkraineisitsactuallyquiteremarkablehownormaland
successfultherestofUkraineisbeing.Theeconomyisgrowing.Businessesarereopening.Thereisaquiteprofoundsenseof
resolveamongUkrainians,andIspeaktoalotofthemwhetherinOdessaorKharkivorKyivorLviv.Theircommitment,their
desiretomovetowardsEuropeaninstitutions,Europeanstandards,theirinterestingettingonwiththeoverduetaskofreforming
theUkrainianstate,includinggrapplingwithsomeofthesamekindsofcorruptionissuesthatyouvemadeprogressontherein
Romania,buildinganattractiveinvestmentclimate,movingthecountryforward.Andwhatsveryclearaftertwoandahalfyearsis
thatwhateverRussiadoesorisabletodointheDonbas,itisnotabletoholdbackUkrainefromitsEuropeanchoice.

Moderator:Thankyou.WeregoingtogobackovertoUkraineandwevegotMarinaSemenenkoonthelinefromtheoutlet
UNN.

Question:WecanseenowthatRussiadoesnt[meet]itscommitments.SomaybeyoushouldsanctionharderforRussia.

AmbassadorBaer:HiMarina.IthinkyourpointisthatRussiahasntfollowedthroughonwhatitscommittedtoandsothe
questionhastobewhatmorecanwedo.Ithinkfirstofall,itsimportanttolookbackandseeoverthelasttwoyearshow
coordinatedandunifiednotonlytheUnitedStatesandtheEU,butotherpartnershavebeenintermsofsendingthemessageto
RussiathatwewanttocreateincentivesforRussiatodowhatitsaysitwilldo.Thatistosay,RussiasaysitwillimplementMinsk,
thatitwillimplementtheMinskAgreements,andalltheincentives,andfrankly,theinterestoftheRussianpeopleisinRussiadoing
whatithassaiditwilldo.Not--obviouslytheinterestofthepeopleofUkraineaswell.

SoIthinkrightnowwereveryfocusedontryingtofindsupport,thedisengagementandthereestablishmentoftheceasefire,and
obviouslytheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStateshavejustrenewedsanctionsrecently.Thesanctionsarenotanythingthat
anyonewants,buttheyarenecessaryinordertocreatetheincentivesfortheKremlintomaketherightdecisionstoleadtode-
escalation,toleadtoestablishmentoftheceasefireandsustainedceasefire,andtomakepossibletherestofthestepsthatarelaid
outinMinsk.

Moderator:Thankyou.Idontseeanyotherquestionsinthequeueatthemoment,soIwillturnbacktoyou,Ambassadors
PyattandBaer,ifthereareanyclosingremarksthatyouwouldliketomake.

AmbassadorBaer:ThanksMireille,andthanksagaintofolksontheline.Ihopefolkshavebeenabletogetthrough.Sorryfor
someofthetechnicalproblemsthismorning.Andthankstoourfriendswhoareorganizingthis.Iknowitsalwaysdifficulttohave
peopleinthreedifferentcitiestryingtomakeoneofthesethingshappen.

IthinkoneofthethingsthatsjustreallyimportantaswegointoAugust,Augusthashistoricallynotalwaysbeenagoodmonth.I
thinkitsreallyimportantthattheeyesoftheinternationalcommunityremainfocusedonthesituationontheground.Therecant
bethisdisjunctbetweenrepeating,betweentheconversationsthatarebeinghad,sometimeswithfrustratingrepetitionaboutthe
needtogetthisdisengagementplan,togettheceasefirerestarted,andthesituationonthegroundwherepeoplearedying.And
oneofthepointswemadeyesterday,theU.S.delegationmadeyesterdayinthePermanentCouncilwas,everytimethegroupthat
isworkingondisengagementinMinsk,everytimetheydecidethattheyllkickitanotherweek,thenthatextraweekcostslives
becausepeoplearedyingeverydayontheground,andnotonlymilitarybutcivilians.Andoneofthethingsthathasbeen
enduringlytruethroughoutthelast2.5years,wheneitherAmbassadorPyattorIhavehadthechancetogoouteastandtalkto
peoplewhohavecomefrombothsidesoftheLineofContact,thethingthatis,thefirstthingthateveryonesaysistheyjustwant
peace.Peopleonbothsidesofthelinejustwantpeace.AndIthinkitsreallyincumbentonallofustocontinuetoputthe
pressureontogetthereinstatementoftheceasefireandtodeliverthepeacethatpeoplewantontheground.

Moderator:Thankyou.Imayhavespokentoosoon.Wedidhavetwomorequestionsjustpopintothequeue.Ifyoure
willingtotakeit,wellseeifwecangettothose.

AmbassadorBaer:Sure.Thatsfine.
AmbassadorPyatt:Danwillhavetocomeupwithhisconclusionagain.[Laughter].

Moderator:ThefirstquestioniscomingfromFredericEgerwhoisafreelancereporterbasedinLatvia.

Question:Hello,AmbassadorBaer.IvebeenconnectingjustrecentlysoIdidntherthebeginningoftheentiretalk.

IjustwantedtoknowifbesidestheMinskAgreementyouhadyourownmaybeplantofind,andyourownideasandsolutionsto
findaquickresolutionofthisconflict.Asyoumentionedjustrightnow,civiliansandcollateraldamagesareoftentheresultof
thesekindofregionalconflicts.Sowouldyou,whendoyouthinkthisconflictcanbeended?Andwhatwillbetheroadmap,the
maybetenpointsthatyouthinkareprioritytoestablishtohaveaceasefirethatstaysinplaceandhavethisoverallconflictresolved
assoonaspossible?

AmbassadorBaer:Frankly,ifIhadaquickfix,Iwouldbeinadifferentjobbynow.

Ithinkoneofthethingsthathasbeenmostheartbreakingformanyofuswhohavebeenworkingontryingtosupportadiplomatic
andapoliticalresolutionoverthelasttwoandahalfyears,hasbeennotonlythefactthatthisentireconflictwasachosenconflict,
wasachosentragedy,atragedythatwasntnecessaryinaworldthatisfilledwithsomanytragediesthatwecantprevent,thisis
onethatwaschosen.

SothatinitialdeepsadnessfromthatfactisfollowedbythefactthatasearlyasSeptemberof2014theMinskProtocol--and
beforethat,frankly,inMayof2014,PresidentPoroshenkospeaceplanwhichwastheprecursortotheMinskProtocol--the
MinskProtocolthatwassignedbybothRussiaandUkraineinSeptemberof2014hasalloftheingredientsofasustainable
peace.Ithasallofthestepsthatarenecessary.Soweveknownwhatneedstobedonefortwoyearsnow.

Theproblemisnotinsolvingsomedifficultpuzzle,itsnot,thisisnotapuzzle.Theproblemispoliticalwill.Andyouknow,my
Ukrainiancolleague,AmbassadorProkopchukhereinVienna,closedhisstatementyesterdaybyrepeatingthewordsofPresident
Poroshenko,whichisthatifMoscowwantedpeaceasmuchasUkrainedid,thisconflictwouldhaveendedlongago.AndIthink
thatremainstruetoday.

Sowehavetorememberthattheformulaisntamystery.Theformulaisinfrontofusandhasbeeninfrontofusfortwoyears.
Thechallengeistogetthatformulaengaged,andobviouslytomakesurethattheKremlinisengagedonactuallymakingpeace
ratherthanfomentingconflict.

AmbassadorPyatt:Again,thisisGeoff.Iwouldjust,toreinforcethepointAmbassadorBaerjustmade,ifyoulookatactions
onthegroundintermsofthesignalsthataresentbyRussiascontinuedsupplyofequipment,fuel,weapons,thatiswhatisdriving
thisconflict.AndthatistheprocessthattheMinskAgreementwasmeanttohalt.

PresidentPoroshenko,asIsaidearlier,hasmadeveryclearthathestandsbythecommitmentshemadeundertheMinsk
Agreements.Infacttherehasbeenquiteabitofprogressinthataspectsofthenegotiationsinthetrilateralcontactgroupin
Minsk.

Wheretheresadlyhasnotbeenasmuchprogressisonthesecuritytrack.Andindeed,themessagewhichAmbassadorsApakan
andSajdikdeliveredveryclearlytoeverybodyhereinViennabeforetheywentoffontheirsummerbreakyesterday,isthatthe
militarysituationonthegroundisasbadasithasbeensincethesummerof2015.

ThereisIthinkonthepartofmanyofus,deepconcernaboutthesesignalsthatratherthanterminatingthisconflict,Russias
actionsarehavingtheeffectofescalatingitonceagain.

Moderator:OurlastquestiontodayiscomingtousfromKristinaButkowhoiswithUkrainianNews.

Question:MygreetingsforbothAmbassadors.

SoyesterdayPresidentPutinsaid[inaudible]Crimeanfederaldistrictanddoesitmeanthatthesanctionswillbeprolongedtothe
southandfederaldistrictwhichitwasaddedto?

AmbassadorPyatt:Christina,thisisGeoff.Letmeanswerthefirsthalfofthatquestion,thenIllaskAmbassadorBaertopick
upsomeofit.

IthinkasregardstheUnitedStatesofAmerica,thisdecisionbytheRussiangovernmenthasnoimpactwhatsoever.Wedonot
recognizetheillegalannexationofCrimea.ThatwillnotchangebasedonwhothegovernorisinSevastopol.Itwillnotchangeon
thebasisofwheretheboundariesofaparticularOblastorterritoryisdrawn.Crimea,quitesimply,ispart,legallypartofUkraine.
ThatisU.S.policy.AndasVicePresidentBidenmadeclearintheRadalastfall,itslikelytoremainU.S.policy.
AmbassadorBaer:Ithinkitsimportantalso,thisisntjustamatterofU.S.policyasAmbassadorPyattsaid.Youknow,the
UNGAresolutionthatwastakenafterRussiasattemptedannexationofCrimeamadeclearthatasamatterofinternationallaw,
CrimeaisUkraine.AndthatwastruebeforeRussiasattempttoannexitanditstrueafterward,anditstruenomatterwhatkinds
ofgymnasticstheKremlingoesthroughinordertoredrawspacesonamap.

Ithinkitsimportantthat,youknow,apointthatwevemadeherewhenRussianrepresentativessaytheywanttohavea
conversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecurity,isthatanyconversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecuritywillhavetostart
withCrimea.ItwillhavetostartwithRussiasattempttoredrawbordersbyforceinthe21s tcentury.

SoIthink,Idontknowwhatsbehindthemovetoincorporate,intheirview,intosomeotherdistrictoftheRussianFederation.
PerhapstheyretryingtohidetheenormouscostthatthisillegalactionhashadfortheRussiantaxpayer.Perhapstheyretryingto
dosomethingelse.Butinanycase,theirredrawingmapsdoesntmakeadifferenceintheeyesofthelaworintheeyesofthevast
majorityoftheinternationalcommunitythatscondemnedthisaction.

Moderator:Thatconcludestodaysconversation,andIwouldliketoextendsincerethankstobothofyou,AmbassadorsPyatt
andBaer.AmbassadorPyatt,Iknowyoudidntgetachancetomakeclosingremarksearlier.Werethereanyotherlastwords
youwantedtogive?

AmbassadorPyatt:IllleaveitwhereDandid,andIagain,IthinktheimportantmessagethatIwouldtakefromconversations
hereinViennathesetwodaysiswecannotbecomplacent.Andbecausethesuccessofourdiplomacyisthevehiclethrough
whichwehopetoendtheterrible,terriblehumansufferingthathashappenedineasternUkraine,wecanttakeAugustoff.

Moderator:Thankyou.Andthankyoutoallofourparticipantswhohavedialedintoday.Wereallyappreciateyoujoiningus.

####

WindowonEurasia
UkrainiansDenounceTrumpsReadinesstoLegitimizePutinsCrimeanAnschluss
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/08/ukrainians-denounce-trumps-readiness-to.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at11:49AM
Subject:"DonaldTRUMPgivesquestionableexplanationofeventsinUKRAINE,"nytimes.com,8/1
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

InaninterviewwithGeorgeStephanopoulosontheABCNewsprogramThisWeek,Mr.Trumpsaid
thatifhewerepresident,PresidentVladimirPutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.He
thenbackpedaledwhenMr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefornearly
twoyears.

And:S.V.Dale,TrumpPUSHEDforGOPtochangeUkraineposition,nowclaimshedidnt:Thepro-
RussiachangewastheonlyplatformtweaktheTrumpcampcaredabout,sources
say,huggingtonpost.com,7/31

And:Detailed8-pageportraitofTRUMPscampaignmanager:HowPaulMANAFORTwieldedpower
inUkrainebeforeadvisingDonaldTrump,nytimes.com,7/31

And:AnintensivelookatManafortscampaignteam,someofthemformeraides[e.g.Frank
MERMOUD]inthecampaigntopropupViktorYANUKOVYCH:DonaldTrumpandRussia:aweb
thatgrowsmoretangledallthetime,theguardian.com,7/30

And:[Hillary]CLINTON:RussianIntelhackedtheDNC,thedailybeast.com,7/31

And:MichaelWEISS,JulianASSANGE,DonaldTrump,andVladimirPUTIN:ATroikaforourinsane
era,thedailybest.com,8/111-pagearticle

Inabizarremind-meldthatcouldonlyhappentoday,theWikiLeaksfounderisrefusingtosaywhether
hegotthehackedDNCemailsfromRussia,andTrumpisdefendingRussia.

And:GorgeF.WILL,HowentangledwithRussiaisTrump,washingtonpost.com,7/29op-ed

And:InvestigativepieceonwhythemoderateMikhailZURABOVwasreplacedbyhardlinerMikhail
BABICHasRussiasambassadorto
UKRAINE:http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/07/29_a_9719417.shtml

And:RussiaseconomystillFALLINGafterhittingrockbottomReport[byMoscowsHigher
SchoolofEconomics],themoscowtimes.com,8/1

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at11:44AM
Subject:UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

AndreasUmland

TherearemoreandmoresignsthatRussiamaybepreparinganewmilitaryoffensiveinEasternUkraine.

http://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/bojovikiv-vidklikajut-z-vidpustki-do-mistsja-postijnoji-dislokatsiji-is-185521.html

JoshRogin

Manafortliedon@meetthepress.HesaidnoonefromthecampaignworkedontheUkrainepartoftheplatform.Flat
outlie.
AnneApplebaum

Manafortspenthiscareerrepackagingdictators.WhyshouldhestoplyingjustbecausethisistheUS,notUkraine?

CyberShowdown.HowRussianHackingWorks

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-07-31/cyber-showdown?cid=soc-tw-rdr

CNNInternational

JulianAssangewontsaywhetherRussiaisbehindDNChackhttp://cnn.it/2afFntj

Yesterday:

PutinVisitsSlovenia

http://www.rferl.org/content/putin-seek-divide-slovenia-eu-on-sanctions-during-visit-july-30/27889575.html
...
"Russiaisconstantlytryingtofindawayaroundthesanctions,targetingcountriesitthinksaresofter.Theyaretrying
tokillthesanctionswithasoftapproach,"oneofthediplomatssaid.
ThediplomatssaidItaly,Greece,Hungary,Cyprus,Slovenia,Slovakia,andBulgariawereamongRussia'smain
targets...
Atthesmall,Orthodox-stylewoodenchurch,PutinsaidRussiawasreadytohelpstrengthensecurityinEuropeand
theworld...

Putin,AssadDoaChechnyaNumberonAleppo

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-williams2/putin-assad-do-a-chechnya_b_11283940.html?yptr=yahoo

...VladimirPutinsDefenseMinisterhasannouncedthatSyrianforcesloyalPresidentBasharal-Assadwilllet
civiliansleavethroughthreecorridors,andrebelsthroughanother,toescapebesiegeddistrictsofAleppo.Wehave
seenthismoviebefore.

ItisthesametacticRussianusedwhenitsairandgroundforceswerebesiegingGrozny,capitalofthebreakaway
provinceofChechnyabackin1999andearly2000,whiletryingtoflushoutIslamicrebelsfromthecity.This
permittedMoscowtodeclareGroznyafree-firezone,allthebettertobatterthealreadyruinedcityanddeallesswith
themessybusinessofkillingciviliansandfightingdoor-to-doorwithinsurgents...

FrenchCollaboratorsKissMonumenttoRussianInvadersofCrimea(photo)

31.07.16|HalyaCoynash

http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1469924085
11FrenchMPs,mostlyfromNicolasSarkozysRepublicanParty,didnotmerelybreachUkrainianlawand
internationalsanctionsthroughtheirvisittoCrimeathisweekend.Theyalsotookpartinashamefulpropaganda
show,denyingflagranthumanrightsviolationsunderRussianoccupationandslanderingCrimeanTatarswhohave
beenabducted,andverylikelymurdered.

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at11:33AM
Subject:JulianAssange,DonaldTrump,andVladimirPutin:ATroikaforOurInsaneEra-TheDailyBeast[ED:
FriendsreadthesectiononAssangeandCo.withparticularcare]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,GloriaHorbaty-NewEngland<gphorbaty@hotmail.com>,
mmshevchuk@aol.com,orysia<ukiebuzz@gmail.com>

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/01/julian-assange-donald-trump-and-vladimir-putin-a-troika-
for-our-insane-era.html

JulianAssange,DonaldTrump,andVladimir
Putin:ATroikaforOurInsaneEra
Itwouldalmostbeheart-warmingthatonemedia-obsessedmegalomaniachasfinallyfoundhisequalwereitnot
forthefactthatoneisnowwithin6percentagepointsoftheAmericanpresidencyandtheotherisJulian
Assange.

TheWikiLeaksfounderandeditorinchieftooktoCNNandNBCsMeetthePressthisweekendtoexplain
hisreasonforreleasingtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeshackedemailsandtoanswerquestionsabout
whethertheywereobtainedthroughtheRussianintelligenceservices.Inananswertothefirstquestion,Assange
toldAndersonCooperonFridayeveningthathefeltanobligationtoWikiLeaksreadersandthatthedecision
topublishtheemailsjusthoursbeforeHillaryClintonacceptedherpartysnominationwasindeedopportunistic.
Ifwepublishedafter,youcanjustimaginehowoutragedtheDemocraticvotingpopulationwouldhavebeen,
Assangesaid.Ithadtohavebeenbefore.

Verywell,then.Onthequestionofhowhisorganizationcameintopossessionofthisprivilegedcorrespondence,
AssangetoldCooperthathecantcommentonanythingthatmightreflectonsourcingtorulethingsinorrule
thingsout.SohewontsayifVladimirPutinsdomesticandmilitaryintelligenceagencieshackedtheDNC,as
agrowinglistofU.S.officials,independentcybersecurityanalysts,andnowClintonherselfbelieve,andasis
fartherfrombeingprovenhandedeverythingtheyfoundtoadigitalcollectiveostensiblycommittedtototal
transparency,forthepurposeofinfluencingaforeignelection.

AssangehasmadehiscontemptforClintonexplicit.InarecentinterviewwithBritishITVsRobertPeston,he
saidhebelievedtheformersecretaryofstatewastryingtohavehimindictedforpublishingU.S.diplomatic
cablesandmilitarydocumentsfiveyearsago.HealsochidedClintonforhersupportoftheLibyaintervention
andherrecordasaliberalwarhawk.OntheWikiLeakswebsite,hedescribedherasthecandidatefor
endless,stupidwar,writingthatClintonshouldntbeletnearagunshop,letaloneanarmy.Andshecertainly
shouldnotbecomepresidentoftheUnitedStates.

WhenPestonaskedaboutTrump,however,Assangewascagier,decliningtosaywhetherheprefersthe
Manhattanrealestatedeveloperasthenextcommanderinchief.Trump,hemerelysubmitted,iscompletely
unpredictableagainsttheknownquantitythatisClinton.

TherehasbeenasurfeitofdiscussionanddebateinthepresslatelyaboutTrumpsfinancialandpolitical
closenesstothePutinregime,muchofitcenteredonwhethertheGOPnomineeisaManchuriancandidatea
navel-gazingandpointlessexercise,asMikhailZygar,oneofRussiastopKremlinologists,moreorlessshowed
inPoliticolastweek.TrumpistheidealcandidateforPutinbecauseheis,intheKremlinsopinion,extremely
pragmatic,extremelyunprincipledandextremelycynicalwhichmakeshimeasiertoreachanunderstanding
with.NottomentionthatTrump,unlikeClintonandjustabouttheentirerestoftheWashingtonforeignpolicy
class,hasexplicitlyexpressedadmirationandsympathyforPutin.

TrumpcertainlycampaignsincreasinglyasifheholdsdearerPutinsnationalsecurityintereststhanhedoes
Americas.

Leaveasidethenow-ancientscandalaboutdefendingArticleVoftheAtlanticCharterintheeventthatBaltic
NATOalliesareinvadedbyRussia.Trumphasschizophrenicallycharacterizedapriorinvasionasbothnocause
forbilateraldiscomfortandontologicallyvoid.

AtapressconferenceonJuly27,followinghisownnominatingconvention,Trumpclaimedthathewillbe
lookingintowhethertheUnitedStatesshouldendsanctionsontheRussiaoveritsinvasionofaneighboring
countryandperhapsalsorecognizeCrimeaasRussianFederationterritory,apositionthatnotevenBeijinghas
broughtitselftoespouseowingtoitsownfearsofRussianmeddlingintheFarEast.

InaseparateinterviewjustdayslaterwithABCsGeorgeStephanopoulos,TrumpactuallydeniedthatRussian
soldiersarecurrentlyinUkraine,againstthelogicofhispriorstatementandallevidencetothecontrary
includingPutinsownbelatedadmissionabouttheseizureofCrimeathroughforcetwoyearsago.Moreover,
TrumpvowedthatPutinisnotgonnagointoUkraine,allright.Youcanmarkitdown.

AssangescuriousrelationshipwiththeRussiangovernmentisbotholderandmorefullyventilated,althoughits
worthreviewinginlightofhisreturntotheprime-timespotlightandrefusaltodisclaimthatPutinsspooksgave
himhislatestscoop.

WhereWikiLeaksmayhaveonceadvertiseditselfasacategoricalenemyofstateatrocities,hypocrisies,and
liesandoncedidindeeddoapublicserviceitnowbehavesasifithonorsthisnobleraison
detreselectively.IthadlittleregardforthemassivePanamaPapersdisclosuresofoffshoreasset-keeping,
muchofitbelongingtoKremlininsiders.Ittweeted,withoutevidence,wasfundedbytheU.S.government
throughUSAIDasanattackstoryonPutin.(Assangeiswidelybelievedtopersonallymantheorganizations
socialmediaaccount.)

Assangealsohadashort-livedtalkshowthatisbroadcastontheKremlin-fundedpropagandanetworkRT,
whichhasassiduouslypushedTrumpscandidacy.ThefirstguestwasHezbollahSecretary-GeneralHassan
Nasrallah,aU.S.-designatedterroristwhomanysympatheticTVpresentersinMiddleEasthavenotbeen
grantedaccesstobutRTsproducersmanagedtoreachinhishideawaybunkerinLebanonandbeamhis
chubbyvisageintoNorfolk,England,whereAssangestayedpriortohisarrivalattheEcuadorianembassyin
London,wherehehasbeenholedupsince2012,evadingextraditiontoSwedenonsexualassaultallegations.

NotthattheEcuadoriangovernmentisterriblyindulgentofitsguest.AccordingtothejournalFocusEcuador,
withinmonthsofAssangesasylumbeingissuedbyQuito,thecountrysintelligenceagencySENAINstarted
spyingonhimintheKnightsbridgeembassyinanoperationdubbedHotel.AccordingtoFocusEcuador,In
someinstances,[Assange]requestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidetheembassy,
suggestingtheuseofRussians.FortheSENAINagents,suchchoicewouldhavemeant,amongotherproblems,
thelossofcontroloftheEmbassyitselfleavingtheguestfreeaccesstocontrolandmanagetheflowof
information.Thereportevenassertsthatitwouldhavebeentheequivalentofacoupintheembassy.(Afull
Englishtranslationofthatarticlecanbefoundhere.)

Theperiodicaldidnotfurtherspeculateaboutwhysomeonesoconcernedwithbeingsafefromthelongreachof
governmentspiesandoperativeswasseekingtheprotectionofasecurityserviceknownfor
surveilling,kidnapping,andkillingitsowncitizens,bothathomeandabroad.

AssangehasalsosaiditwashisideaforEdwardSnowdentoseekasylumnotinEcuadorbutinRussia.He
preferredLatinAmerica,theAustraliansaidinAugust2015,butmyadvicewasthatheshouldtakeasylumin
RussiadespitethenegativePRconsequences,becausemyassessmentisthathehadasignificantriskhecould
bekidnappedfromLatinAmericaonCIAorders.Kidnappedorpossiblykilled.

AsproofthatWikiLeaksplayedaroleinorchestratingSnowdensasylumcase,Assangedispatchedoneofthe
organizationsrepresentatives,theBritishjournalistSarahHarrison,toaccompanytheformerNSAspyonhis
journeytoSheremetyevoAirportinMoscow.Harrisonalsoturnedupapressconferencewithhimthere.
ItremainsamysteryhowHarrisonwasgrantedavisatoMoscowwhenheremployerboastsofitsmissionof
stealingstatesecretsforpublicationandwheninvestigativejournalistsonforeignpassportswhodofarlessthan
thataredeniedentrytoRussiaorgetexpelledor,inextremecases,murdered.

WealsohaveWikiLeakssone-timecontentaggregatorinPutin-land,IsraelShamir,whosenamewas
conspicuouslyabsentonCNNuntilImentioneditonSaturday.

AstheorganizationsformerenlisteeJamesBallputintheGuardian,aself-styledRussianpeacecampaigner
withalonghistoryofantisemiticwriting,ShamirwasintroducedtotheteamunderthepseudonymAdam,andit
wasonlyseveralweeksafterhehadleftwithahugecacheofunredacted[U.S.StateDepartment]cables
thatmostofusstartedtofindoutwhohewas.

ThiswasaGooglesearchsworthofwork,really.Shamirsviewsseemtobothanticipateandunderscorethose
ofthealt-rightTrumpsupportwingonsocialmedia.DailyBeastcolumnistMichaelMoynihanablycatalogued
hisfascisminReasonmagazine.ShamirbelievesthatAuschwitzwasnotaNazideathcampbutratheraRed
Cross-overseeninternmentfacilitythatallMuslimsandChristiansareduty-boundtodenythattheShoahever
tookplacethatTheProtocolsoftheEldersofZionisnotadebunkedtsaristfabricationbutactuallyaJewish
manualforworlddominationandthatJewsthemselvesareavirusinhumanform.

Shamirsson,thefabulisthackJohannesWahlstrm,hasalsobeenidentifiedasWikiLeaksspokesmanin
Sweden.

Fatherandsonappeartohavefoundabosswhohashimselffloatedperilouslycloseintothesameorbitof
bigotedlunacy.AccordingtoIanHislop,theeditorofBritainsPrivateEye,Assangeaccusedthatvenerable
satiricalweeklyofbeingpartofaconspiracyledbytheGuardianwhichincludedjournalistDavidLeigh,
[former]editorAlanRusbridgerandJohnKampfnerfromIndexonCensorshipallofwhomareJewish.
(Infact,RusbridgerisnotJewish,butAssangeexplainedthatheneverthelessqualifiesasamemberofthetribe
bybeingthebrother-in-lawofDavidLeigh,anotherGuardianista,whois.)Assangedeniedsayinganysuch
things,buttheGuardianhadalreadylearnedthatitserstwhilemediapartnerhasarathercavalierattitudeabout
protectinginnocentsmentionedinclassifiedtextshedisseminates.AfghanswhoriskedTalibanreprisalsby
workingwithU.S.andNATOforceswereinformants,Assangehassaid,accordingtoLeighandLuke
Harding,aBritishreporterwhowaschuckedoutofRussiaforwritingtruthfullyaboutPutin.So,iftheyget
killed,theyvegotitcomingtothem.Theydeserveit.

WhichmakesitratheradorablethatAssangeinsistedtoBrianStelterthatWikiLeakshada10-yearrecordof
presentingtotallyaccurateinformationtothepublic.Somemembersofthepublichaveevengotadvance
copies.

InDecember2010,theodiousShamirwenttoBelaruswiththebundleofunredactedcablesBallmentioned,all
ofwhichweredraftedinMinsk.AccordingtojournalistKapilKomireddi,ShamirthenmetwithVladimir
Makei,thechiefofstaffofBelarusiandictatorAlexanderLukashenko,andturnedovereverythinghehad,
featuringthenamesofprominentBelarusiandissidentsandoppositionfigureswhohadmetwithU.S.diplomats
overtheyears.ThenShamirhungaroundtomonitorthecountrysforthcomingpresidentialelection,whichwas
asfreeandfairasyoudexpectinacountrywhosesecretpolicearestillknownastheKGB.Lukashenkoof
coursewon,with80percentofthevote,andimprisonedhisclosestrival,myfriendAndreiSannikov,who
wassubsequentlytorturedinjail.

AsKomireddinoted,Shamirshand-deliveryofcablestowhatwasthenanuncomplicatedpro-Putinsatellite
regimewasmoretobolsteracrackdownonpoliticalfreedomafterthefactratherthanfurnishanenemieslist.
SovietBelarus,astate-runnewspaper,Komireddiwrote,beganserializingwhatitclaimedtobeextracts
fromthecablesgiftedtoLukashenkobyShamir.Amongthefiguresexposedasrecipientsofforeigncashwere
Sannikov,thedefeatedoppositionpresidentialcandidateOlegBebenin,Sannikovspresssecretary,whowas
founddeadinsuspiciouscircumstancesmonthsbeforetheelectionsandVladimirNeklyayev,thewriterand
formerpresidentofBelarusPEN,whoalsoranagainstLukashenkoandisnowunderhousearrest.

Shamir,unsurprisingly,hasnothingbutpraiseforPutin.UkrainesEuromaidanrevolutionhecallsaNeocon-led
conspiracyinKievledbyBrownstorm-troopers.Healsojoyouslypresentstheshamreferendumheldin
occupiedCrimeaasalmostunanimouslyinfavorofjoiningRussia.
Thetrue,contradictoryresultofthatstage-managedplebiscitewerepostedtothewebsiteofPutinsown
HumanRightsCouncilbeforethevotetookplace.AndsinceRussianoccupation,Crimeahasbecomeamafia
stateletwhereactivistsarearrestedandtortured,andRussiassatrapyhasbannedtheindigenous
Tatarmajlis(orlegislature)andincarceratedseveralofthatantiqueMuslimcommunitysmostprominentfigures
ontheeveoftheanniversaryofStalins1944deportationandgenocideofCrimeanTatars,noless.

Inoureraofideologicalinsanity,Isupposeweshouldntbesurprisedthatabizarremind-meldhastakenplace
amongsuchatroikaofworld-historicalsolipsists:oneinchargeof11timezonesandmanynuclearweapons
oneconfinedtoaThirdWorldmissionandstillhungryforpressclippingsandonewhothinksthatwarsonly
existdependingonthetimeofdayandhisownparticularmood.NowwefindTrumpsurrogateson
CNNdenyingthatRussiaeverseizedCrimeainthefirstplace,whichexculpatestheKremlinfromany
unpleasantnessvisiteduponthepeninsula,whilePaulManafortsmilesandsaysheknowsnothingaboutRussian
hackersoranymoneytrailleadingfromthecampaignhemanagesbacktoMoscow.Anddontexpecttofind
one,Manafortadds,asTrumpwontbereleasinghistaxreturns,afterall.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:GlenHoward<howard@jamestown.org>
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at12:06PM
Subject:Fwd:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad[AnEmergingTrumpDoctrine?]
To:WalterZarycki<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PaulGoble
<paul.goble@gmail.com>

Fyi

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad<jordan@gryphon-partners.com>
Date:August1,2016at10:32:42AMEDT
To:<howard@jamestown.org>
Subject:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad
Reply-To:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad<jordan@gryphon-partners.com>

TheEmergingTrumpDoctrine?
ZalmayKhalilzad

July28,2016

TweetShareShare
Recentpresidentialcampaignshavenotfocusedonforeignpolicy.Thisyear
couldbedifferent.Thevolatilityoftheinternationalsystemhasincreasingly
becomeintertwinedwiththedomesticissuesthattendtodominate
presidentialelections.

ThecivilwarwithinIslamhasproducedtheworstinternationalterroristthreat
ofthemodernera:ISIS,orDaesh.Thisconflict,aswellasinstabilityin
Africa,hasalreadypushedmillionsofmigrantsintoEurope,whichhasgiven
risetogreaternationalismandthreatenstheEuropeanproject.Increasing
terroristattacksintheWestincludingtheUnitedStatescallintoquestion
currentcounterterrorismstrategies.

Atthesametime,slowgrowthandeconomicdislocationisproducinga
backlashagainstglobalization.Andagainstthebackdropofeconomic
stagnation,isolationistsentimentsinAmericaarehittinglevelsunseensince
theimmediatepost-Vietnamera.

Mostsignificant,amajorpresidentialcandidateischallengingfundamental
assumptionsaboutU.S.foreignpolicy.Consensusbehindanewgrand
strategydidnotquitecohereaftertheColdWar.Butpresidentialcandidates
since1992,whiledifferingontheirapproachestospecificissues,generally
agreedthattheU.S.-ledpostwararchitectureshouldbepreservedandthat
Americanleadershipwasnecessarytorespondselectivelytoglobalcrises
andtokeepthepeaceamongmajorpowers.

DonaldTrumpisdifferent.Trump'spronouncementsaremorethananattack
onHillaryClintonsworldview.Althoughstatedinprovocativeandunorthodox
ways,hetakesissuewithmanyofthetenetsthathaveguidedU.S.foreign
policyacrossbothRepublicanandDemocraticadministrationssincetheend
oftheColdWar.Whatwearewitnessingisnothinglessthanthebirthofa
TrumpDoctrine,onethatcallsforabreakfromthestatusquoonatleastfive
mainissues:U.S.goals,counteringtheterroristgroupISISandIslamist
extremism,democracypromotion,immigrationandgreat-powerrelations.

U.S.Goals:TrumpssloganAmericaFirstharkensbacktothe
isolationistsofthepre-WorldWarIIera.Trump,however,isnotan
isolationist.Quitethecontrary.Hefavorsalargedefensebudgetandwants
toensurethatAmericaremainstheworldssolemilitaryandeconomic
superpower.Rather,AmericaFirstisTrumpswayofattackingglobalism.
Theterm"globalism"encapsulates,forTrump,themyriadpoliciesthathe
believesareexpendingAmericanresourcesonbehalfofgoalsincidentalto
coreU.S.interests.

ItisintherealmofinternationaleconomicsinparticularthatTrumpis
soundingthealarmofglobalism.U.S.presidentssincetheendofWorldWar
IIhavetakentheviewthateconomicintegrationandfreetradearewin-win
propositionsthatbothfurtherglobalsecurityandbenefitAmericaninterests,
foreignanddomestic.TrumpsAmericaFirstviewismorezero-sumand
nationalistic.HebelievesthattheUnitedStatesnaivelypracticesfreetrade
whileothercountriesgainundueadvantagethroughmercantilistpractices.
HebelievesmanytradeagreementshavedamagedAmericanegatively
affectingU.S.workersandthemiddleclassbyfacilitatingmovementof
manufacturingjobsfromtheUnitedStatestoothercountriessuchasChina
andMexico.Hebelievesthattheseandrelatedpoliciesareproducingslow
economicgrowth,hugedebtandunderminingtheunderpinningsofU.S
economicpower.

TrumpisintentonprioritizingU.S.economicinterests.He,forexample,will
renegotiateNAFTAandabandonthecurrenttextoftheTrans-Pacific
PartnershipinordertoreassertU.S.sovereigntyandprotectandexpand
U.S.manufacturingandemployment.

CounteringISISandIslamicExtremism:Trumpappearstoseethethreat
ofISISandIslamistextremismasurgentandtheprincipalcurrentthreatto
theUnitedStates.HebelievesthatPresidentObamaandcandidateClinton
failtorecognizethenatureoftheproblemthatISISandal-Qaidaare
Islamistterroristgroupsandacceptthatwehavetolivewiththethreatis
unacceptable.HehassaidthataTrumpadministrationwillseektodefeat
ISISquicklyandtoeliminateitsthreattotheUnitedStates,rejectingthe
notionthatweshouldlearntolivewiththethreat.HewantsU.S.alliancesto
focusonthethreatofIslamistterrorismandalsoiswillingtocooperatewith
Russiatodefeatit.HeiswillingtousemoreU.S.forcesandtoadoptmore
aggressivetactics.Heappearstofavorusingalotofforceagainstterrorist
targetsintheMiddleEastbutthengetoutratherthanmaintainasignificant
roleonthegroundforyears.HealsowantstoreviewU.S.immigrationand
visapolicyaswelldomesticlawenforcementpoliciestodealwiththisthreat.

Immigration:Trumpalsodepartsfromtheestablishmentonbothlegaland
illegalimmigration.Hewantstobreakthecycleofmillionsofillegals
becominglegalizedeveryfewdecadesindealsthatincludecommitmentsto
controlillegalimmigrationcommitmentsthatalwaysgounfulfilled.Hisoften
usedimageryofawallexpressesthedeterminationtobreakthatcycleby
whatevermeansarenecessary.

Onlegalimmigration,itappearsthatTrumpwouldliketoreducetheflowand
perhapschangethecriteriaforwhowouldbeadmitted.Hearguesthat
reducingandchangingcriteriaforlegalimmigrationwouldresultin
increasedemploymentforAmericansandlegalresidents,particularlyinthe
lowerendoftheincomespectrum.HisconcernsaboutISISusingflowsof
refugeestoinfiltrateterroristsintotheUnitedStatesledhimtocallfor
suspendingvisasforallMuslimsuntilaprocesswasestablishedforreliable
vetting,whichlaterhemodifiedtotemporarilysuspendingadmissionof
visitorsandimmigrantsfromterror-afflictedcountries.

TrumpappearstofearEuropesproblemsreplicatingthemselvesinthe
UnitedStates.InEurope,thecontinentisinthemidstofapotentially
dangerousparadigmshift.Accordingtosomeestimates,morethan700,000
AfricansarewaitinginLibyatomovetoEurope,withmillionsmorelikelyto
followtheirpathgivenpopulationgrowthandeconomicandpoliticalcriseson
thecontinent.Thiscouldeventuallydwarfthealreadydestabilizingcurrent
andfutureflowsfromconflictsintheMiddleEastandSouthAsia.Thiswould
inevitablyhavehugeimpactsindomesticpoliticsandsecurityinEurope.

Great-PowerRelations:Trumpisenvisioninganeweraofgreat-power
relations.HefavorsalesstruculentapproachtoRussiathanHillaryClinton.
WhileotherpresidentshavepursuedcommonunderstandingswithMoscow,
Trumpenvisionsperhapsamoresweepingparadigmshiftandperhapsa
newgrandbargain:acceptanceofsomekindofasphereofinfluencefor
MoscowinpartsofitsimmediateneighborhoodinexchangeforRussian
cooperationonissuesimportanttotheUnitedStateswithregardstowaron
terror,Syria,andtheAsianbalanceofpower.InhisviewofRussia,hemay
beclosertoPresidentFranklinDelanoRooseveltsattitudetowardtheSoviet
UnionthantheapproachofanysubsequentAmericanpresident.

DuetostrongpressurefromTrumpcampaignofficials,forexample,the
Republicanplatformdroppedanendorsementoftheprovisionoflethal
defensivearmsandassistancetoUkraine.Trumpsrecentstatementthat
calledintoquestionAmericasguaranteetoNATOalliesunderArticleVif
theyarenotmeetingtheirowndefenseobligationscreatedafuror.Trump
madeitclearthathewantstouseitasabargainingtooltoforcealliestopay
fortheirdefense,andhasalsostatedthathewantstopreserveNATO.

WithChina,bycontrast,theTrumpDoctrinewouldpursueamuchharder
line.HehaspromisedtoplaceChinaseconomicpracticesitsalleged
currencymanipulation,lackofintellectual-propertyprotections,and
economicespionageatthecenterofthebilateralrelationship.Economic
pressure,Trumpbelieves,wouldnotonlyaddressU.S.domesticconcerns
suchasthelossofmanufacturingjobsitwouldalsoprovideameansby
whichWashingtoncouldelicitChinesecooperationonsecurityconcerns
suchastheNorthKoreannuclearprogram.

Great-powerrelationsmayalsoshiftinthecontextofU.S.relationswithits
traditionalallies.TrumpishardlythefirstAmericanpoliticalfiguretogripe
aboutourallies'free-riding.WhatdistinguishesTrump,however,isthe
degreetowhichheisconsumedwiththeissue.WhileU.S.presidentshave
tendedtoacceptfreeloadingasapriceworthpayingforanetworkof
alliancesthatunderwritesinternationalsecurityandpreservesU.S.global
leadership,TrumpispreparedtowieldU.S.leveragetoensurethatU.S.
alliancespaytheirfairshare.

DemocracyPromotion:ParticularlysincetheReaganyears,democracy
promotionhasbecomeacentraltenetofU.S.foreignpolicy.Policymakers
havegenerallyreachedtheconclusionthatthespreadofdemocracyand
humanrightsisnotonlyconsistentwithAmericanideals,butalsocontributes
toamorepeacefulworld.WhenmilitaryoperationsinAfghanistanandIraq
wereundertakentooverthrowregimesposingserioussecurityproblems,
bipartisancoalitionssupportedtheinstallationofdemocraticgovernmentsto
reestablishpoliticalauthority.Theconsensuswasthatdemocraticidealshave
universalappealandcantakeholdacrosscountriesandregionswith
differenthistoriesandcultures.

WhenTrumpalludestodemocracypromotion,hedoessomostlyinthe
contextofhissharpattacksonnation-buildingandregimechange.Inhis
RepublicanNationalConventionspeech,forexample,helambastedtheU.S.
decisiontosupporttheoverthrowofdictatorshipsinIraq,Libya,Egyptand
Syria,arguingthattheseeffortsunderminedstabilityandU.S.
counterterrorismpriorities.Trumppledgedunequivocallytoabandonthe
failedpolicyofnationbuildingandregimechange.

Trumpisraisingseriousissuesthatdeservetobedebated.Howprecisely
wouldhepursuehisvisionatapracticallevel,andhowwouldheminimize
thenegative,perhapsunintended,consequencesofhisproposals?

Achievinggreaterburdensharingandfocusingouralliancesoncurrent
threatswouldbepositive.However,thechallengeishowtoachievethisgoal
withoutshakingconfidenceintheUnitedStates.Itisclearthatourcurrent
approachhasnotachievedtherightbalancebothonupdatingthealliances
andonburdensharing.Butthereistheriskthatunderminingconfidencein
theUnitedStatesanditsalliancescouldproducescenariossuchas
renationalizationofsecuritypoliciesbygreatpowers,similartothesituation
beforeWorldWarII,includingthenuclearizationofalliedcountries.

Trumphasexpressedsympathy,ifnotoutrightsupport,fornationalistforces
inEurope.Buthehasnotexplainedhowthesetrendswillredoundtothe
benefitoftheUnitedStates.ItwouldnotserveU.S.interestsforthenext
administrationtoexacerbatexenophobicsentimentsontheContinentthrough
protectionismandincendiaryrhetoricaboutburdensharing.

RevisionistpowerssuchasRussiaandChinawouldbecomemore
aggressiveasU.S.-ledalliancesweakenbecausetheylosecredibility.What
wouldaTrumpadministrationdotominimizesuchthreats?

EvenwithamoreaccommodatingpolicytowardRussia,wehavetoavoid
underminingrelationswithEuropeanalliesandcompromisingthesovereignty
ofstatessuchasUkraineandGeorgia.FarfrombeingapathwaytoU.S.-
Russiacooperation,thereistheriskthattheTrumpDoctrinesstepback
fromUkrainecouldopenthedoortofurtherincursionsbyRussiaagainstits
Europeanneighbors.

GiventhecurrentChineseleaderspushforregionalhegemony,theUnited
StatesneedsabalanceofpowerapproachinAsiansecuritywithJapan,
India,Vietnamandotherregionalpowerplayingabalancingroleandthe
U.S.astheultimatebalancer.HowwouldaTrumpadministrationengineer
thisbalance?

AfterWorldWarII,theUnitedStatesunderwentaparadigmshiftinits
foreignpoliciesremainingdeeplyengagedinunstableregionstomaintain
great-powerpeace.Todevelopthedetailsofthisnewparadigm,theTruman
andEisenhoweradministrationsdevelopedsomeofthemostimportant
internalandexternalinstitutionsoftheColdWarera.Theyalsoengagedin
bipartisandeliberationsinvolvingleadersofboththeexecutiveandlegislative
branches,drawingonexpertisefrominsideandoutsideofgovernment.Such
aprocesstoarriveatabipartisanconsensusisnecessaryregardlessofwho
becomesourPresident.

Trumpscritiqueoffreetradehasitsmerits.Ittakesinordinatetimeand
expenseforAmericanfirmstodocumentandlitigateunfairtradepractices
suchasdumpingunderthecurrentprocess.Theriskisthatbythetimethey
secureajudgment,theirmercantilistcompetitorshaveharmedthem
irreparably.Andtherehasbeennoresponsetotheproblemofcurrency
manipulation.However,Trumpneedstoarticulatehowhewoulddesigna
moreeffectiveenforcementprocessfortradeagreementsandhowhewould
avoidroundsoftit-for-tatretaliationleadingtotradewars.Asmanyhave
said,Americahas5percentoftheworldspopulation,anditsprosperity
dependsonsellingtotheother95percent.

Onimmigration,itiscertainlytimeforareviewofnotonlywhomweallow
intothecountry,butwhoespeciallywewishtoattractthebestandthe
brightestfromaroundtheworldandindividualswhosubscribetoAmericas
corevalues.Anupdatedimmigrationstrategyisrequired,andcontrolofthe
borderandwhocomestothecountryisalsoamust,asisdevelopinga
systemtopolicevisaoverstays.Theglobalpopulationmovementmakesthis
necessary.WeneedtoworktogetherwithourEuropeanalliestoassistthem
indevelopingappropriatestrategiesforthecomingpotentialfloodof
refugeesandthefutureofAfricaasanurgentmatter.

Yet,Trumpssometimesinflammatoryrhetorichasunderminedhisabilityto
workwithallgroupsinAmericansocietyonthisquestion.Asacandidate
and,ifhewins,asapresident,hemustshedthisdivisiveapproach,whichis
counterproductivetofindingtheneededconsensusonawayforward.

Ondemocracypromotion,Ijudgethatthegoalofademocratizedworldasa
long-termobjectiveremainsvalid.Buthowthisgoalispursued,especially
givenrecentsetbacks,isanimportantquestion.Itneedstobedebated
recognizingthattheprocessofbuildinganeffectiveliberaldemocracytakes
timeasitdidinourowncountry.Thepathtoopenpoliticalsystemswill
varyaccordingtothedifferenthistories,cultures,andcircumstancesofour
partners.Itrequiresustoworkpatientlywithleadersandsocietiesof
aspiringdemocraciesandnottoabandonthemwhentheyexperience
setbacks.

Onstrategyandtactics,perhapsadifferentiatedapproachwouldbethe
best.Weshouldemphasizestabilityandconflictresolutioninplacessuchas
theMiddleEastandAfrica.Weshouldworktoconsolidatedemocratization
inotherregionssuchaspartsofEurope,partsofAsiaandtheAmericas,
wheredemocraticinstitutionshavefaltered.Also,itwouldbebeneficialto
reviewwhetherourinstitutionsinvolvedindemocracybuildingareeffective
andmakethenecessaryreforms.

OncounteringIslamistterrorism,notwithstandinghisrefusaltoengagein
nation-buildingandkeeptogetinvolvedinprotractedconflictandpolicing,
TrumphasvowedtodestroyISISwithinamatterofmonths.Ifhisintentisto
liberateISIS-heldareassuchasMosulinIraqandRaqqainSyria,the
questionishowhewilldoso.AgoodoptionistofollowtheAfghanmodel,
embeddingU.S.andcoalitionSpecialForceswithlocalfightersandapplying
significantairpoweragainstISIStargets.However,thequestionofwhat
happenstotheareasliberatedfromISISmustbeanswered.How,without
state-buildingandnewpower-sharingarrangementsinIraqandSyria,would
aTrumpadministrationpreventsegmentsoftheSunniArabpopulationfrom
gravitatingtoyetanother(andperhapsevenmorevicious)terroristgroup?
Afterall,ISISisthesuccessortotheterroristgroupAlQaedainIraq.There
isalsothebroaderquestionofhowtochangefailedpoliciesindealingwith
statesponsorsofterroristandextremistgroupssuchasPakistan.

Evenifweavoidlargestate-andnation-buildingprojectssuchasIraqand
Afghanistan,weneedtopreservethecapacity,acquiredatenormouscost
basedonexperienceinIraqandAfghanistan,toassistinlimitedstate
buildingtohelpfriendlyforcescontrolterritorieswhichhavestrategicvalue.
NotdoingsowouldmeanoverlearningthelessonsofIraqandAfghanistan
andriskcreatingvacuumsinwhichterroristscouldestablishsanctuaries.
Suchamistake,inturn,mightrequirealargerinterventionandoccupationof
suchterritoriestorootoutterroristforces,ashappenedafter9/11.

TheobjectiveofgettingRussiatoworkwithustodefeatISISisdesirable
butthereisnoguaranteethatMoscowwilldoso.Previouseffortsat
achievingU.S.-RussiancooperationbyBushandObamaadministrations
havenotsucceeded.WhatisthebasisforTrumpsconfidencethathewill
succeedifandwhenheistheU.S.president?

ItisimperativethattheTrumpcampaignnotleavethesequestions
unanswered.ThisisbecauseTrumpsfundamentalcritiquehasmerit:
Americaschallengesathomedrivenbyunprecedenteddebt,weak
economicgrowth,racialandclassdivisions,andgrowingeconomic
inequalitydoindeedthreatenU.S.primacyabroad.Hehasraisedthese
issuesinauniquelyprovocativemanner.Hisboldnessmustnowbematched
withwisesolutions.

TrumpspeaksformillionsofAmericanswithhisunfetteredattacksonan
establishmentthathas,infact,madeitsshareoferrors.Forthis,hehas
beenawardedtheRepublicannominationforpresident.Now,justthree
monthsbeforehispossibleelectionasCommanderinChief,hehasour
attention.Itistimeforhimtopivottoamoreseriousdialoguewithmore
detailsonhowtodealwiththeseissues.Regardlessoftheoutcomeofthe
generalelection,theissuesthathehasraisedandthesentimentstowhich
hehaslenthisvoicearenotgoingaway.

ZalmayKhalilzadisaCounseloratCSIS.HewastheUSAmbassadorin
Afghanistan,IraqandtheUN.Heistheauthorofanewbook:TheEnvoy:
FromKabultotheWhiteHouse:MyJourneythroughaTurbulentWorld.St
Martin'sPress.

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