Trump 4

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.
edu>
Senttime: 07/08/201611:17:07AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"The'YAROVAYALAW'hasbeenputtoapopularvote,"vedomosti.ru,7/8
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,July08,201611:17AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"The'YAROVAYALAW'hasbeenputtoapopularvote,"vedomosti.ru,7/8
OnthesiteRussianPublicInitiative(ROI)therehasopenedavoteinfavorofrevokingthe
YarovayaLaw.
TRUNMPscampaignmanager[PaulMANAFORT]hauntedbypastbusiness[inYanukovychled
UKRAINE],kyivpost.com,7/8
ThestorybeginsinMarch2007,whenManafortandothermembersofhispoliticalteaminUkraine
setupaprivateequityfundwithRussianmoneyAccordingtocourtfilings,thecompanymanagedto
makeonlyoneinvestmentinanOdesatelecomcompany.However,the$19millionraisedforthe
purchasealongwith$7millioninmanagementfeeshassincedisappeared.Manafortdidnotreply
tomultiplerequestsforcommentmadethroughhisattorney.OtherManafortbusinessventures
discussed.
And:DonaldTRUMPaide[CarterPAGE]slamsAmericaspolicyonRussiaduringspeechinMoscow,
telegraph.co.uk,7/8
InanunusualcritiqueforamanattachedtoapresumptivenomineefortheAmericanpresidency,
CarterpagesaidtheUSandotherWesterncountriesunfairlyviligiedRussiaforitsproblems,including
corruptionMr.PagelamentedthattheWestunnecessarilyperpetuatedColdWartendenciesin
theirdealingwithRussiaAformeradvisortoGAZPROM,Russiasstategasbehmouth,mr.pagewas
invitedbytheNewEconomicSchooltogivealectureoneconomics.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/08/201609:02:14AM
Subject: FW:"OBAMAurgesNATOtostandFIRMagainstRussiadespiteBrexit,"reuters.com,7/8
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,July08,20169:02AM
Subject:"OBAMAurgesNATOtostandFIRMagainstRussiadespiteBrexit,"reuters.com,7/8
And:NATOvowstoBOLSTERdefensesborderingRussia,rferl.org,7/8
And:WehaveTRILLIONS:howmuchwillRussianspayduetotheYAROVAYALAW[signedby
Putin],http://slong.ru/posts/70519
Slon.ruestimatesthatthenewlawwillcostRussiantelecomsandotherbusinessesandconsumersa
whopping$78billion[5trillionrubles]
And:Russianmobilephoneoperators:[New]antiterrorlegislationwillaffectWORLDCUP,
themoscowtimes.com,7/8
And:RussiaplanstoSUEEuropeanDevelopmentBank,themsocowtimes.com,7/8
RussiaintendstofilealawsuitagainsttheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment
(EBRD)forfreezingitsoperationsinthecountry
And:TRUMPsFAVORITEGENERAL:MichaelFLYNNismorethanavaluedadviser[toTrump].Heis
alsoapotentialVP[!]candidate,politico.com,7/8
Sinceleavinggovernment,FlynnhasangeredUSofficialsoverhisfriendlyrelationswithRussiaHe
evenrecentlysatattheheadtableatadinnerinMoscowwithVladimirPutin,whomTrumphas
praised.
And:RussianstatecensorblocksfourpoliticalWEBSITESforcallingonvoterstoboycottupcoming
parliamentaryelections,meduza.io,7/8
And:EDROGANinsistsonsupportforUkraine,condemnsoppressionofCrimeanTatars,unian.info,
7/8
And:Review(positive)byKarenDAWISHAifArkadyOSTROVSKY,TheInventionofRussia,WallStreet
Journal,7/6,p.A9
[OstrovskyisformerMoscowcorrespondentfortheFinancialTimesandcurrentlyoftheEconomist.]
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 07/06/201603:52:04PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes6July2016
Attachments: IN6July16.docx
InternetNotes6July2016
StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh
NobailforBelykh
NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)
Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek
VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente
http://slon.ru/posts/70141
ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowtheregimesolves
somedilemmas
#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?BelykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupataMoscow
restaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablackcashbox,likebribery,is
inevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitisorganizedmoreexperiencedplayerssetup
charitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecashispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalistNatalia
MorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassingalongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderoftheUnionofRight
Forces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sotheregimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshouldcontinueifso,
thenwhohastherighttomakeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitledto?Itsclearthat
neitherPutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregimeaimingtosurvive.
Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.
#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowerearrestedearlier
KhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitelyandthesystemicliberals.
Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththeurbanmiddleclass.Belykhsarrestisa
seriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporatethepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.Belykhwasa
linkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,allsuchlinksareno
longeroperative.ThesignificanceofBelykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogoafterthosethey
considerpartofthefifthcolumn,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscirclearevulnerable
(Comment:Iwascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboostZolotovand
apparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeofwhatheintended
preventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaseriouscrisis.Ialsonotedthat
Putinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKNandtheFMStotheMVDas
compensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthatKudrinscomingbackintothepicturemighthave
beenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdownthesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,announcedornot,
haveamomentumoftheirown.IdoubttheimplicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthroughandweread
yesterdaythatPutinmaynothaveevenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand(Stanovayatakesupthe
ideathatPutindoesnotgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrighttomespeakingofnot
givingagoaheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).Theplayerstendtobe
reactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbeviewedasanaturalstep
inawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomeaproblem.Wealsoread
(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperationaimedatBelykhandOrlovahas
claimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseeroftheFSBUSBfromthe29Junenotes:[Comment:We
havereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidentialSecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeingusedbyPutinasacadres
reserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIvearguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,Putinssuspicions,elitefears,
andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,KarinaOrlova,iscorrectand
ZolotovisoverseerandprotectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedtopurgeuntrustworthy(or
potentiallyuntrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluenceandexpanditsterritory.
OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehindtheUSB,Yakovlevs
departurefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andthetensionsfollowingthe
Nemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.TheonlypersontheycanappealtoisPutin.The
Belykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.
#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.Onceisan
exception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformationwithintheregime.The
governorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,andnowareavulnerablepartofthe
system.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acriticaldelimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withits
privilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).This
ishavinganimpactonnotonlythegovernors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(includingdeputy
ministers),andtheheadsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumberof
availablebenefitsisdecreasing.
Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntilnow,nomatter
whowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons(whichmeantamemberofthe
systemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:AnotherinterestingpointtoponderasInotedearlier,the
KremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviatheNationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,producing
thekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhavesuspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.Thesamecould
betrueofthegovernorsnotnow,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butinaserious
political/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.
#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeenmonopolized.Thereal
powerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-politicized,butanon-publicsortof
politicsisaliveontheperiphery.ThedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeingdividedbetweenthePresidentialAdministrations
domesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespoliticaldecorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakinguponthemselvestheroleof
scenarist.Soarethesilovikyindependentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfromabove?
EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhavesanctionedthe
arresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestofKhodorkovskiy.Butthesituation
haschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemoreoftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.
Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthedemi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookon
precisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theidea
thatthereisapacketofkompromatoneveryoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,the
presidentdoesntgiveago-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheisaware
ofwhatsgoingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.
#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborderbetweenthose
whohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthesystemrecognizethosewhose
arrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-stabilization?Asthecircleofpotentialvictims
expands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThetendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomeslessselective
andlawenforcementbecomesmoreexperiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgivingliberalizationa
chance,butitcouldhavetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthoseconsideredthe
foundersofthesystem.
NobailforBelykh
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-bail/574422.html
AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruptioncharges,theTASS
newsagencyreportedWednesday.
Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28millionrubles
($430,000),TASSreported.
Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,Belykhslawyer.
ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnotabribe-taker.Healsotold
journaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappealhisdetentionandtoclearhisname,TASS
reported.
BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwithreceivingbribes
worth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernorpromotedtheinterestsoftwo
companiesintheKirovregion.
Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.Hemaintainshis
innocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.
AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYablokoparty,Grigory
Yavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.
BelykhisthethirdgovernorofaRussianregiontobearrestedoncorruptionchargesinthelasttwoyears.
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73735.html
Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthorityusually,anymoves
involvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butinBelykhscaseeventheoperational
workbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.Informationwasgatheredunderthecoverofgathering
materialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatformonthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergeyIvanov,andFSO
peoplewhowereheadedformallyandinformallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.Thesourcesays
thatthecreationoftheNationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatweareafraidof,says
thesource,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).Andthereisabasisfor
fearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.Theresnoguaranteethat
theNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,intheregions,andinmajorbanksand
enterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernorsoffice,forexample,hasanFSOofficerkeeping
watch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasanaideortakingoverthegovernorspost(Comment:Thats
areferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,takingoverasTulagovernor).
FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguardwasbeing
created,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryofStateSecurity(MGB)that
wouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefendtheindependenceoftheFSO.Withoutthe
FSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.ButthewheelswerealreadyturningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancould
notsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablowagainstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenkowas
arrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthatMurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.MurovalsosupposedlyintroducedMikhalchenkoto
Putin,recommendinghimasabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenkowasactually
arrestedtwicethefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequentlyreleased.He
wasreprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinaboutthearrestand
theroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedonthatveryday.
AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.TheFSBthenmoved
togetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingtheheadofDirectorateKofFSB
EconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe9JunenotesthatclaimedVoroninwas
closetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanovwashavinganimpactonpeopleconnectedtohimlike
LarisaKalanda).VoroninsdeparturewasfollowedbymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.Butcadreturnoverhasbeen
draggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclangrewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.BothFSBandFSO
sourcessaythattheKirovFSBoverplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthearrest.Firstofall,
PutinwasnotinformedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.
ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.IvanTkachevofthe
6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadofDirectorateKatFSBSEB,butis
nowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthedirectoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,
AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwonthappen.
Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothenotesfrom20
JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity(MOB)seemedtopointtoa
strengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurgetheoldpowerstructuresandscreen
officersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasaysthatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwasable
tosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOBplan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butoneof
oursourceshadZolotovdriftingawayfromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief
(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedinthe2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwas
replacedbyKochnev,amanfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.Onereason
IvehadZolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,hesusingthe
Zolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedtheMGB/MOBoperation.
Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemergergoingforward?
ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreenedbyZolotovthattheFSBand
Bortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenotbeenopposedbyZolotov,maybethat
retirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwascompensationtotheFSBforthecreationofthe
Natsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseenasamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnot
meanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeandvettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedby
Zolotov.Wellhavetowaitandseeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereareplenty
ofotherswhomightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmovesmeant
topreventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.
IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31March
notes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10Junenotes.Abitin
the9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwesawaclaiminthosesamenotes
thatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanovaswell).Therewassomeconfusionabout
Mikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,IwentoverapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolvedin
thekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburgbackin2004.Inthatscenario,Mikhalchenkowasconnectedtothe
FSB,whileTsepovwasclosetotheFSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connected
Romodanovskiy,who,likeZolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.
BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.ButTsepovstieswere
strongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.Upuntilearly2004,Bortnikov
wasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirmrelationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohad
somelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovs
murderandMikhalchenkossteppingintotakeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicating
factorasmentionedabove,RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewasclose
toMikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.
OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,the10June
notes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovssphereofinfluence.
Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSBSEBbyInternalSecuritys
Korolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimedthathehadalreadytakenoverasheadof
FSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsibleforthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadof
DirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellasheadofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangeswere
supposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaimstheywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-cancels-all-meetings-for-a-week/574433.html
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaperreported
Wednesday,citingKremlinsources.
Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneofPutins
scheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.
AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeenindefinitely
postponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.
Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasaschedulewhichcanbe
changed.
PutinhasnotattendedapubliceventsincehisofficialvisittoFinlandonFridayJuly1.
ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagementsanddisappeared
frompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-modest-deal-vladimir-putin-s-new-d-tente-op-ed/574322.html
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitaryanddiplomatic
tensions.
InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothroughtheregularlitany
ofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missiledefenseandoverthrowingregimes
in"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeployadditionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWestern
countriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasizedRussia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStates
oninternationalaffairs."
Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStatesasthe"only
superpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.OnavisittoFinlandafewdays
ago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsawsummitthisweek,acceptedNATO'sproposal
forpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefenseministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesovertheBalticSeawith
theirtransponderson.
Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensionswiththeWest.
TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussiaandtheWestmanagedtodo
afterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexertcontroloverUkraine.
MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollbacktheexpansion
ofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.Thesepoliciesofmanaged
confrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwiththedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60
percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin'sdomesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.
Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetopreventitfromjoining
Westernalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,diplomaticisolationandaruined
relationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphereofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshout
anewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitarypositionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedas
NATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptionstoMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbeganplanning
foradditionaltroopdeployments,araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStatesandNATOwas
fastapproachingapointofdiminishingreturns.
Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedanditbecameclearthat
amoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFTtransactionscouldhaveresultedina
devastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.
Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwassomewhat
breathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capableofdeployingmilitaryforceabroad
toaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sregimefromamilitarydefeat,butitsinvestment
ofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimitedcooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almostayearafterits
intervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthevergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthisinvestment.It
desperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclarevictoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperationwiththeUnited
States,Turkey(hencethelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.
VladimirFrolovisapoliticalanalyst.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/07/201612:31:46PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Cc: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes6July2016
Iratheragreewiththis.Heispast70and.moretothepoint,theexposureandsubsequentarrestofMikhalchenko&otherswasa
signhewaslosinginfluence.IdontbuytheNovayapieceonthisscore.
Thatsaid,hehaslandedonhisfeet:
http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/577e3f409a794728a1ad54e6
OnJul7,2016,at11:22AM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:
T
hanks,Wayne,fortheilluminatingpieceonMikhalchenkoetalinyournotesofyesterday,
whichI'veonlyjustread.Muchofitisovermyhead,butonecommentthatmightbeusefulis
thatMurov'sinfluencemaynowbezero.Hemustbeabout70,andIcan'tthinkofanyfigures
underPutinwho'vemaintainedinfluenceatthatage.
Best,
Peter
OnWed,Jul6,2016at6:52PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:
StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh.1
NobailforBelykh.3
NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)4
Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek.7
VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente.7
ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowthe
regimesolvessomedilemmas
#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?Belykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupata
Moscowrestaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablack
cashbox,likebribery,isinevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitis
organizedmoreexperiencedplayerssetupcharitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecash
ispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalistNataliaMorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassing
alongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderoftheUnionofRightForces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sothe
regimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshouldcontinueifso,thenwhohastherightto
makeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitledto?Itsclearthatneither
PutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregimeaimingto
survive.Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.
#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowere
arrestedearlierKhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitely
andthesystemicliberals.Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththe
urbanmiddleclass.Belykhsarrestisaseriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporate
thepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.BelykhwasalinkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.
Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,allsuchlinksarenolongeroperative.Thesignificanceof
Belykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogoafterthosetheyconsiderpartofthefifth
column,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscirclearevulnerable(Comment:I
wascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboostZolotovand
apparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeofwhat
heintendedpreventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaserious
crisis.IalsonotedthatPutinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKN
andtheFMStotheMVDascompensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthat
Kudrinscomingbackintothepicturemighthavebeenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdown
thesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,announcedornot,haveamomentumoftheirown.Idoubtthe
implicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthroughandwereadyesterdaythatPutinmaynothave
evenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand(StanovayatakesuptheideathatPutindoes
notgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrighttomespeakingofnotgivingago
aheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).Theplayerstendtobe
reactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbeviewedas
anaturalstepinawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomea
problem.Wealsoread(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperation
aimedatBelykhandOrlovahasclaimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseerofthe
FSBUSBfromthe29Junenotes:[Comment:WehavereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidential
SecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeingusedbyPutinasacadresreserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIve
arguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,Putinssuspicions,elitefears,andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle
(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,KarinaOrlova,iscorrectandZolotovisoverseerand
protectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedtopurgeuntrustworthy(orpotentially
untrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluenceandexpandits
territory.OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehind
theUSB,YakovlevsdeparturefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2June
notes)andthetensionsfollowingtheNemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.The
onlypersontheycanappealtoisPutin.TheBelykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.
#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.
Onceisanexception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformation
withintheregime.Thegovernorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,
andnowareavulnerablepartofthesystem.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acritical
delimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withitsprivilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade
(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).Thisishavinganimpactonnotonlythe
governors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(includingdeputyministers),andthe
headsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumberofavailable
benefitsisdecreasing.
Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntil
now,nomatterwhowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons
(whichmeantamemberofthesystemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:Anotherinteresting
pointtoponderasInotedearlier,theKremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviathe
NationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,producingthekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhave
suspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.Thesamecouldbetrueofthegovernorsnot
now,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butinaserious
#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeen
monopolized.TherealpowerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-
politicized,butanon-publicsortofpoliticsisaliveontheperiphery.Thedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeing
dividedbetweenthePresidentialAdministrationsdomesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespolitical
decorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakinguponthemselvestheroleofscenarist.Soarethesiloviky
independentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfromabove?
EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhave
sanctionedthearresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestof
Khodorkovskiy.Butthesituationhaschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemore
oftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthe
demi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookonprecisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.
Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theideathatthereisapacketofkompromaton
everyoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,thepresidentdoesntgivea
go-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheisawareofwhats
goingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.
#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborder
betweenthosewhohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthe
systemrecognizethosewhosearrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-
stabilization?Asthecircleofpotentialvictimsexpands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThe
tendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomeslessselectiveandlawenforcementbecomesmore
experiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgivingliberalizationachance,butitcould
havetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthoseconsideredthefounders
ofthesystem.
NobailforBelykh
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-
bail/574422.html
AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruption
charges,theTASSnewsagencyreportedWednesday.
Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28
millionrubles($430,000),TASSreported.
Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,
Belykhslawyer.ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnota
bribe-taker.HealsotoldjournaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappeal
hisdetentionandtoclearhisname,TASSreported.
BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwith
receivingbribesworth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernor
promotedtheinterestsoftwocompaniesintheKirovregion.
Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.He
maintainshisinnocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.
AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYabloko
party,GrigoryYavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.
Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthority
usually,anymovesinvolvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butin
Belykhscaseeventheoperationalworkbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.
InformationwasgatheredunderthecoverofgatheringmaterialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatfor
monthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergeyIvanov,andFSOpeoplewhowereheadedformallyand
informallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.Thesourcesaysthatthecreationofthe
NationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatweareafraidof,saysthe
source,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).Andthereis
abasisforfearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.
TheresnoguaranteethattheNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,in
theregions,andinmajorbanksandenterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernors
office,forexample,hasanFSOofficerkeepingwatch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasan
aideortakingoverthegovernorspost(Comment:ThatsareferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,
takingoverasTulagovernor).
FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguard
wasbeingcreated,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryof
StateSecurity(MGB)thatwouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefend
theindependenceoftheFSO.WithouttheFSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.Butthewheelswerealready
turningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancouldnotsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablow
againstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenkowasarrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthat
MurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.MurovalsosupposedlyintroducedMikhalchenkotoPutin,recommendinghim
asabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenkowasactuallyarrestedtwice
thefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequentlyreleased.Hewas
reprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinaboutthe
arrestandtheroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedon
thatveryday.
AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.The
FSBthenmovedtogetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingthe
headofDirectorateKofFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe
9JunenotesthatclaimedVoroninwasclosetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanov
washavinganimpactonpeopleconnectedtohimlikeLarisaKalanda).Voroninsdeparturewasfollowed
bymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.ButcadreturnoverhasbeendraggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclan
grewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.BothFSBandFSOsourcessaythattheKirovFSB
overplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthearrest.Firstofall,Putinwasnot
informedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.
ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.Ivan
Tkachevofthe6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadof
DirectorateKatFSBSEB,butisnowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthe
directoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwont
happen.
Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothe
notesfrom20JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity
(MOB)seemedtopointtoastrengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurge
theoldpowerstructuresandscreenofficersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasays
thatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwasabletosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOB
plan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butoneofoursourceshadZolotovdriftingaway
fromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedin
the2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwasreplacedbyKochnev,a
manfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.OnereasonIvehad
Zolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,
hesusingtheZolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedthe
MGB/MOBoperation.
Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemerger
goingforward?ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreened
byZolotovthattheFSBandBortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenot
beenopposedbyZolotov,maybethatretirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwas
compensationtotheFSBforthecreationoftheNatsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseen
asamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnotmeanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeand
vettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedbyZolotov.Wellhavetowaitand
seeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereareplentyofotherswho
mightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmovesmeantto
preventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.
IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31
Marchnotes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10
Junenotes.Abitinthe9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwe
sawaclaiminthosesamenotesthatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanov
aswell).TherewassomeconfusionaboutMikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,Iwent
overapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolvedinthekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburg
backin2004.Inthatscenario,MikhalchenkowasconnectedtotheFSB,whileTsepovwasclosetothe
FSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connectedRomodanovskiy,who,like
Zolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.
BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.But
TsepovstieswerestrongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.
Upuntilearly2004,BortnikovwasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirm
relationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohadsomelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-
alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovsmurderandMikhalchenkossteppinginto
takeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicatingfactorasmentionedabove,
RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewascloseto
Mikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.
OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,
the10Junenotes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovs
sphereofinfluence.Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSB
SEBbyInternalSecuritysKorolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimed
thathehadalreadytakenoverasheadofFSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsible
forthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadofDirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellas
headofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangesweresupposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaims
theywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaper
reportedWednesday,citingKremlinsources.
Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneof
Putinsscheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.
AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeen
indefinitelypostponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.
Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasa
schedulewhichcanbechanged.
ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagements
anddisappearedfrompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitary
anddiplomatictensions.
InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothrough
theregularlitanyofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missile
defenseandoverthrowingregimesin"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeploy
additionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWesterncountriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasized
Russia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStatesoninternationalaffairs."
Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStates
asthe"onlysuperpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.
OnavisittoFinlandafewdaysago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsaw
summitthisweek,acceptedNATO'sproposalforpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefense
ministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesovertheBalticSeawiththeirtransponderson.
Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensions
withtheWest.TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussia
andtheWestmanagedtodoafterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexert
controloverUkraine.
MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollback
theexpansionofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.
ThesepoliciesofmanagedconfrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwith
thedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin's
domesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.
Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetoprevent
itfromjoiningWesternalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,
diplomaticisolationandaruinedrelationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphere
ofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshoutanewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitary
positionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedasNATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptions
toMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbeganplanningforadditionaltroopdeployments,
araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStatesandNATOwasfastapproaching
apointofdiminishingreturns.
Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedandit
becameclearthatamoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFT
transactionscouldhaveresultedinadevastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.
Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwas
somewhatbreathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capable
ofdeployingmilitaryforceabroadtoaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad's
regimefromamilitarydefeat,butitsinvestmentofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimited
cooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almostayearafteritsintervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthe
vergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthisinvestment.Itdesperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclare
victoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperationwiththeUnitedStates,Turkey(hence
thelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.
Senttime: 07/06/201601:21:46PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:InternetNotes5July2016
IllhavesomemoreonMikhalchenkoandFSBvsFSOintodaysnotes.
From:PeterReddaway[mailto:pbreddaway@gmail.com]
Sent:Wednesday,July06,201610:01AM
To:RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>;WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject:Re:InternetNotes5July2016
T
hisisagoodpoint,andremindsmethatIwasoftenstruckbyMikhalchenko's
remarkablespeedandaggressivenessinacquiring/seizingassets(andnodoubt
passingagoodpercentageofthevaluetoBortnikov).Thismusthaveprovoked
envyandangerinalotofFSBofficersinSPB.
OnWed,Jul6,2016at2:03AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Ifthisisthecase,itsmoreinterestingthanyoumightthinkatfirstblushsinceitwastheFSBthatwentafterMikhalchenko.
OnJul5,2016,at6:38PM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:
W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).Links
upwithwhatBobremindedmeabouttheotherday(andIforwardedto
you),namelythatBortnikovwas-forsomeyearsatleast-
Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwasprobablyonemorePutin
threattoBortnikov.

Best,
Peter
OnTue,Jul5,2016at6:27PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:
FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov).1
Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups.3
SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov.3
SergeyKanevonBelykh.3
PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies.4
PutingivesRolduginanaward..4
Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis).4
TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?.5
MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest.6
AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea.6
KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence.7
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)
http://www.newsru.com/russia/05jul2016/echo_print.html
AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafter
Ekhose-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledin
forquestioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogatthe
MVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeen
openedagainstPiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussian
Federation.
InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutors
officeconcerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.
Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,
whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnyatobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.
PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceof
extremisminhiswriting.
TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafromRussia.Ekho
subsequentlydeletedthelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.ThearticlesaidthatRussiahadlosttheChechenwar
andwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financingpalacesandgoldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,while
unemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.Piontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoare
unhappywithKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.
Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethe
notesfrom27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlin
clans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandis
tryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.
AndreyIllarionovre-postedthePiontkovskiyBombarticle:
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/894698.html
Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,PiontkovskiytoldKasparov.ru
(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwould
beanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyof
theregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeis
enteringaninevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconcept
inUkraine)andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovand
havesaidthattheregimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(Piontkovskiycalls
thesilovikyattacksonKadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytelling
Slon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersof
whichwouldhavearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,
likeKhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingtostepin
aftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),thoughPiontkovskiyseemstothink
heisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.Moreon
KhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirst
comeoff,thesilovikycouldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedas
partofthetransitionalleadershipwasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisfora
while.IrecallBelkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasa
transitionalfigure.
IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,andlistedthosehe
(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwas
mentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7
PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolvedSignificantsocial
forceswouldthenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtableintheplaceofparliamentThese
peoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theround
tablewillapprovechangestotheRussianConstitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbe
anagreementamongthearmedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000
wouldbeenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowilldecide
thequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtableatthatmoment,the
passivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,the
roundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrin
couldbepartofthetransitionalleadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadership
wontbeadictatorship,itsanotherformofauthority
Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesanexit):
Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,
Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.
Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups
PutinwillgiveupanyoneforthesakeofKadyrov
http://mobile.twitter.com/apiontkovsky/status/740587590483640321
AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky
.,,,,.
-,,.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,
whichmentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.
SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov
Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?post_add#post_add
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowin
threedozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustraffic
violationstheFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryabouttheincident.Soloveywassayingthatthe
KremlinwasalreadynothappywithBortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(Academy
GraduateshaveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereisvideoatthelink
SergeyKanevonBelykh
Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)afterhis
bossthere,SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),whileFSBUSBsIvan
TkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistov
takingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawareportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargeting
Belykh.FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.
NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh:
http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotake
overasheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,who
hasbeencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,
speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichwere
doingbetteronimprovingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythatthe
FSBhasbeeneyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,
PutinwasonatriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostiletoBelykh
forsometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsin
KirovOblastisthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,who
resignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothers
arrest(Seethe29Junenotes).AleksandrwassaidtobeslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputies
AnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehad
alreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthe
fact.PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargeting
Belykh:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html
PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3026102
ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.PutinalsoabolishedthepostofMVD
InternalTroopsCommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,noteight,deputies
PutingivesRolduginanaward
http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-gosudarstvennuyu-
sluzhbu
PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseofRoldugins
contributionstohumanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendshipandpeacebetween
peoples
Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)
ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEverythirdfamilywith
childrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligations
Realincomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevada
pollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionandapprovalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingthe
Crimeacampaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleand
corruptionscandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,
butisheldupbythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernmentsapproval
ratingshavedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrongdirection
numberstrackwithMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime
Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:Putinstrust
ratingisdownsignificantlysincelastspring):
[http://www.levada.ru/2016/06/30/iyunskie-rejtingi-odobreniya-i-doveriya-6/
50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%
18%)Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevs
approvalratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)
Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%in
March),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]
TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-2017/574344.html
RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,theReutersnews
agencyreportedTuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.
Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimeswithinthree
years.
TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDumaandpresidential
elections,Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7billion)overthreeyears.
Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.
Bytheendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereign
funds.Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.
TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFund
in2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.
TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilization
FundwassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundis
investedinRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.
MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest
Thereleaseorderwasmadeon1JulySeethe19Mayand3Junenotes.
http://crimerussia.com/en/gromkie-dela/the-moscow-city-court-discharged-dmitry-kamenshchik/
ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputyprosecutor-
generalVladimirMalinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerofDomodedovoairportDmitry
Kamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoon
astheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussiareceivesallthenecessarydocuments.
TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagers
oftheairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturned
theremedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation
AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-crimea-since-
russia-sanctions/574325.html
TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperateinCrimea,the
KommersantnewspaperreportedonTuesday.
Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexed
peninsulasinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.
Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailableto
peoplearoundtheworld.
IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,
saidIsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.
InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssetsControlgavethe
websiteaspeciallicensetoworkinCrimea.
Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,whereverthey
live,saidthespokesperson.
KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence
http://20committee.com/2016/07/02/the-kremlin-admits-snowden-is-a-russian-agent/
Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.In
aremarkableinterviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:
Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,
theywillgetit.
Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththe
FSB.ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.
Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heis
thedeputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-old
KlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.
HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).Klintsevichsawactionin
Afghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,
thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-
PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).
Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012withhisshort-lived
ideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsruling
elite.GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)by
Russiasspecialservices.
HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthetongue.For
whateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyears
already.
OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomestic
surveillancewhichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticized
fromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamany
hadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybeasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.
Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhis
mouthpieceshavepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafide
spy.TherearenoindicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.
TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-
plussecretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscredit
theWesternintelligencealliance.
Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.In
reality,theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohave
beenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,undetected.
BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.
Whateverhappenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Therenolongercanbeanyhonest
debateabouthisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.Putinandhisspecialservices
considerSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.
(ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinBILDinGerman,youcanreadthathere.)
Novirusfoundinthismessage.
CheckedbyAVG-www.avg.com
Version:2016.0.7640/VirusDatabase:4613/12565-ReleaseDate:07/05/16
From: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/07/201608:22:19AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Cc: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
T
hanks,Wayne,fortheilluminatingpieceonMikhalchenkoetalinyournotesofyesterday,whichI'veonly
justread.Muchofitisovermyhead,butonecommentthatmightbeusefulisthatMurov'sinfluencemay
nowbezero.Hemustbeabout70,andIcan'tthinkofanyfiguresunderPutinwho'vemaintainedinfluence
atthatage.
Best,
Peter
NobailforBelykh.3
ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowtheregime
solvessomedilemmas
inevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitisorganizedmoreexperiencedplayersset
upcharitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecashispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalist
NataliaMorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassingalongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderofthe
UnionofRightForces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sotheregimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshould
continueifso,thenwhohastherighttomakeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitled
to?ItsclearthatneitherPutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregime
aimingtosurvive.Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.
#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowerearrested
earlierKhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitelyandthesystemic
liberals.Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththeurbanmiddleclass.Belykhs
arrestisaseriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporatethepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.
BelykhwasalinkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,all
suchlinksarenolongeroperative.ThesignificanceofBelykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogo
afterthosetheyconsiderpartofthefifthcolumn,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscircleare
vulnerable(Comment:Iwascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboost
ZolotovandapparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeof
whatheintendedpreventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaseriouscrisis.I
alsonotedthatPutinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKNandtheFMStothe
MVDascompensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthatKudrinscomingbackintothepicture
mighthavebeenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdownthesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,
announcedornot,haveamomentumoftheirown.IdoubttheimplicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthrough
andwereadyesterdaythatPutinmaynothaveevenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand
(StanovayatakesuptheideathatPutindoesnotgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrightto
mespeakingofnotgivingagoaheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).The
playerstendtobereactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbe
viewedasanaturalstepinawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomea
problem.Wealsoread(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperationaimedat
BelykhandOrlovahasclaimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseeroftheFSBUSBfromthe29
Junenotes:[Comment:WehavereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidentialSecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeing
usedbyPutinasacadresreserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIvearguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,
Putinssuspicions,elitefears,andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,
KarinaOrlova,iscorrectandZolotovisoverseerandprotectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedto
purgeuntrustworthy(orpotentiallyuntrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluence
andexpanditsterritory.OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehind
theUSB,YakovlevsdeparturefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andthe
tensionsfollowingtheNemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.Theonlypersontheycanappeal
toisPutin.TheBelykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.
privilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).
Thisishavinganimpactonnotonlythegovernors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(including
deputyministers),andtheheadsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumber
ofavailablebenefitsisdecreasing.
KremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviatheNationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,
producingthekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhavesuspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.The
samecouldbetrueofthegovernorsnotnow,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butina
seriouspolitical/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.
politicsisaliveontheperiphery.ThedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeingdividedbetweenthePresidential
Administrationsdomesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespoliticaldecorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakingupon
themselvestheroleofscenarist.Soarethesilovikyindependentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfrom
above?
thatthereisapacketofkompromatoneveryoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,
thepresidentdoesntgiveago-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheis
awareofwhatsgoingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.
arrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-stabilization?Asthecircleofpotential
victimsexpands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThetendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomesless
selectiveandlawenforcementbecomesmoreexperiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgiving
liberalizationachance,butitcouldhavetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthose
consideredthefoundersofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh
journaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappealhisdetentionandtoclearhisname,
TASSreported.
Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthorityusually,any
movesinvolvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butinBelykhscaseeventhe
operationalworkbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.Informationwasgatheredunderthecover
ofgatheringmaterialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatformonthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergey
Ivanov,andFSOpeoplewhowereheadedformallyandinformallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.
ThesourcesaysthatthecreationoftheNationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatwe
areafraidof,saysthesource,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).And
thereisabasisforfearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.Theres
noguaranteethattheNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,intheregions,andin
majorbanksandenterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernorsoffice,forexample,hasanFSO
officerkeepingwatch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasanaideortakingoverthegovernorspost
(Comment:ThatsareferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,takingoverasTulagovernor).
notsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablowagainstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenko
wasarrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthatMurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.Murovalsosupposedlyintroduced
MikhalchenkotoPutin,recommendinghimasabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenko
wasactuallyarrestedtwicethefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequently
released.HewasreprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinabout
thearrestandtheroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedonthatvery
day.
AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.TheFSBthen
movedtogetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingtheheadofDirectorateK
ofFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe9Junenotesthatclaimed
VoroninwasclosetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanovwashavinganimpactonpeople
connectedtohimlikeLarisaKalanda).VoroninsdeparturewasfollowedbymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.Butcadre
turnoverhasbeendraggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclangrewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.Both
FSBandFSOsourcessaythattheKirovFSBoverplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthe
arrest.Firstofall,PutinwasnotinformedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.
ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.IvanTkachevof
the6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadofDirectorateKatFSBSEB,but
isnowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthedirectoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,
Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothenotesfrom
20JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity(MOB)seemedtopoint
toastrengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurgetheoldpowerstructuresandscreen
officersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasaysthatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwas
abletosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOBplan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butone
ofoursourceshadZolotovdriftingawayfromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief
ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreenedbyZolotovthattheFSB
andBortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenotbeenopposedbyZolotov,maybethat
Zolotov.Wellhavetowaitandseeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereare
plentyofotherswhomightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmoves
meanttopreventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.
Mikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,IwentoverapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolved
inthekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburgbackin2004.Inthatscenario,Mikhalchenkowasconnectedtothe
factorasmentionedabove,RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewas
closetoMikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.
Korolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimedthathehadalreadytakenoverashead
ofFSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsibleforthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadof
Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasaschedulewhichcan
bechanged.
ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagementsand
disappearedfrompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.
superpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.OnavisittoFinlandafew
daysago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsawsummitthisweek,acceptedNATO's
proposalforpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefenseministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesover
theBalticSeawiththeirtransponderson.
NATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptionstoMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbegan
planningforadditionaltroopdeployments,araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStates
andNATOwasfastapproachingapointofdiminishingreturns.
Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedanditbecameclear
thatamoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFTtransactionscouldhaveresulted
inadevastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.
breathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capableofdeployingmilitaryforce
abroadtoaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sregimefromamilitarydefeat,butits
investmentofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimitedcooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almost
ayearafteritsintervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthevergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthis
investment.Itdesperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclarevictoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperation
withtheUnitedStates,Turkey(hencethelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

Senttime: 07/07/201608:22:19AM
Cc: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
T
hanks,Wayne,fortheilluminatingpieceonMikhalchenkoetalinyournotesofyesterday,whichI'veonly
justread.Muchofitisovermyhead,butonecommentthatmightbeusefulisthatMurov'sinfluencemay
nowbezero.Hemustbeabout70,andIcan'tthinkofanyfiguresunderPutinwho'vemaintainedinfluence
atthatage.
Best,
Peter
NobailforBelykh.3
ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowtheregime
solvessomedilemmas
inevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitisorganizedmoreexperiencedplayersset
upcharitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecashispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalist
NataliaMorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassingalongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderofthe
UnionofRightForces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sotheregimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshould
continueifso,thenwhohastherighttomakeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitled
to?ItsclearthatneitherPutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregime
aimingtosurvive.Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.
#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowerearrested
earlierKhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitelyandthesystemic
liberals.Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththeurbanmiddleclass.Belykhs
arrestisaseriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporatethepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.
BelykhwasalinkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,all
suchlinksarenolongeroperative.ThesignificanceofBelykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogo
afterthosetheyconsiderpartofthefifthcolumn,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscircleare
vulnerable(Comment:Iwascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboost
ZolotovandapparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeof
whatheintendedpreventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaseriouscrisis.I
alsonotedthatPutinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKNandtheFMStothe
MVDascompensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthatKudrinscomingbackintothepicture
mighthavebeenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdownthesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,
announcedornot,haveamomentumoftheirown.IdoubttheimplicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthrough
andwereadyesterdaythatPutinmaynothaveevenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand
(StanovayatakesuptheideathatPutindoesnotgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrightto
mespeakingofnotgivingagoaheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).The
playerstendtobereactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbe
viewedasanaturalstepinawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomea
problem.Wealsoread(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperationaimedat
BelykhandOrlovahasclaimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseeroftheFSBUSBfromthe29
Junenotes:[Comment:WehavereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidentialSecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeing
usedbyPutinasacadresreserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIvearguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,
Putinssuspicions,elitefears,andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,
KarinaOrlova,iscorrectandZolotovisoverseerandprotectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedto
purgeuntrustworthy(orpotentiallyuntrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluence
andexpanditsterritory.OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehind
theUSB,YakovlevsdeparturefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andthe
tensionsfollowingtheNemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.Theonlypersontheycanappeal
toisPutin.TheBelykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.
privilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).
Thisishavinganimpactonnotonlythegovernors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(including
deputyministers),andtheheadsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumber
ofavailablebenefitsisdecreasing.
KremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviatheNationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,
producingthekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhavesuspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.The
samecouldbetrueofthegovernorsnotnow,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butina
seriouspolitical/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.
politicsisaliveontheperiphery.ThedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeingdividedbetweenthePresidential
Administrationsdomesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespoliticaldecorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakingupon
themselvestheroleofscenarist.Soarethesilovikyindependentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfrom
above?
thatthereisapacketofkompromatoneveryoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,
thepresidentdoesntgiveago-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheis
awareofwhatsgoingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.
arrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-stabilization?Asthecircleofpotential
victimsexpands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThetendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomesless
selectiveandlawenforcementbecomesmoreexperiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgiving
liberalizationachance,butitcouldhavetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthose
consideredthefoundersofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh
journaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappealhisdetentionandtoclearhisname,
TASSreported.
Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthorityusually,any
movesinvolvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butinBelykhscaseeventhe
operationalworkbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.Informationwasgatheredunderthecover
ofgatheringmaterialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatformonthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergey
Ivanov,andFSOpeoplewhowereheadedformallyandinformallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.
ThesourcesaysthatthecreationoftheNationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatwe
areafraidof,saysthesource,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).And
thereisabasisforfearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.Theres
noguaranteethattheNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,intheregions,andin
majorbanksandenterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernorsoffice,forexample,hasanFSO
officerkeepingwatch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasanaideortakingoverthegovernorspost
(Comment:ThatsareferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,takingoverasTulagovernor).
notsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablowagainstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenko
wasarrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthatMurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.Murovalsosupposedlyintroduced
MikhalchenkotoPutin,recommendinghimasabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenko
wasactuallyarrestedtwicethefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequently
released.HewasreprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinabout
thearrestandtheroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedonthatvery
day.
AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.TheFSBthen
movedtogetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingtheheadofDirectorateK
ofFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe9Junenotesthatclaimed
VoroninwasclosetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanovwashavinganimpactonpeople
connectedtohimlikeLarisaKalanda).VoroninsdeparturewasfollowedbymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.Butcadre
turnoverhasbeendraggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclangrewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.Both
FSBandFSOsourcessaythattheKirovFSBoverplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthe
arrest.Firstofall,PutinwasnotinformedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.
ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.IvanTkachevof
the6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadofDirectorateKatFSBSEB,but
isnowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthedirectoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,
Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothenotesfrom
20JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity(MOB)seemedtopoint
toastrengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurgetheoldpowerstructuresandscreen
officersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasaysthatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwas
abletosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOBplan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butone
ofoursourceshadZolotovdriftingawayfromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief
ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreenedbyZolotovthattheFSB
andBortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenotbeenopposedbyZolotov,maybethat
Zolotov.Wellhavetowaitandseeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereare
plentyofotherswhomightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmoves
meanttopreventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.
Mikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,IwentoverapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolved
inthekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburgbackin2004.Inthatscenario,Mikhalchenkowasconnectedtothe
factorasmentionedabove,RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewas
closetoMikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.
Korolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimedthathehadalreadytakenoverashead
ofFSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsibleforthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadof
Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasaschedulewhichcan
bechanged.
ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagementsand
disappearedfrompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.
superpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.OnavisittoFinlandafew
daysago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsawsummitthisweek,acceptedNATO's
proposalforpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefenseministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesover
theBalticSeawiththeirtransponderson.
NATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptionstoMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbegan
planningforadditionaltroopdeployments,araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStates
andNATOwasfastapproachingapointofdiminishingreturns.
Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedanditbecameclear
thatamoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFTtransactionscouldhaveresulted
inadevastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.
breathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capableofdeployingmilitaryforce
abroadtoaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sregimefromamilitarydefeat,butits
investmentofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimitedcooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almost
ayearafteritsintervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthevergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthis
investment.Itdesperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclarevictoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperation
withtheUnitedStates,Turkey(hencethelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

Senttime: 07/06/201607:24:19PM
NobailforBelykh
somedilemmas
NobailforBelykh
reported.
changed.
tensions.
Senttime: 07/07/201612:31:46PM
Iratheragreewiththis.Heispast70and.moretothepoint,theexposureandsubsequentarrestofMikhalchenko&otherswasa
signhewaslosinginfluence.IdontbuytheNovayapieceonthisscore.
Thatsaid,hehaslandedonhisfeet:
http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/577e3f409a794728a1ad54e6
OnJul7,2016,at11:22AM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:
T
hanks,Wayne,fortheilluminatingpieceonMikhalchenkoetalinyournotesofyesterday,
whichI'veonlyjustread.Muchofitisovermyhead,butonecommentthatmightbeusefulis
thatMurov'sinfluencemaynowbezero.Hemustbeabout70,andIcan'tthinkofanyfigures
underPutinwho'vemaintainedinfluenceatthatage.
Best,
Peter
NobailforBelykh.3
ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowthe
regimesolvessomedilemmas
#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?Belykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupata
Moscowrestaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablack
cashbox,likebribery,isinevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitis
organizedmoreexperiencedplayerssetupcharitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecash
ispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalistNataliaMorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassing
alongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderoftheUnionofRightForces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sothe
regimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshouldcontinueifso,thenwhohastherightto
makeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitledto?Itsclearthatneither
PutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregimeaimingto
survive.Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.
#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowere
arrestedearlierKhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitely
andthesystemicliberals.Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththe
urbanmiddleclass.Belykhsarrestisaseriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporate
thepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.BelykhwasalinkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.
Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,allsuchlinksarenolongeroperative.Thesignificanceof
Belykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogoafterthosetheyconsiderpartofthefifth
column,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscirclearevulnerable(Comment:I
wascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboostZolotovand
apparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeofwhat
heintendedpreventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaserious
crisis.IalsonotedthatPutinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKN
andtheFMStotheMVDascompensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthat
Kudrinscomingbackintothepicturemighthavebeenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdown
thesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,announcedornot,haveamomentumoftheirown.Idoubtthe
implicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthroughandwereadyesterdaythatPutinmaynothave
evenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand(StanovayatakesuptheideathatPutindoes
notgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrighttomespeakingofnotgivingago
aheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).Theplayerstendtobe
reactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbeviewedas
anaturalstepinawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomea
problem.Wealsoread(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperation
aimedatBelykhandOrlovahasclaimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseerofthe
FSBUSBfromthe29Junenotes:[Comment:WehavereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidential
SecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeingusedbyPutinasacadresreserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIve
arguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,Putinssuspicions,elitefears,andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle
(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,KarinaOrlova,iscorrectandZolotovisoverseerand
protectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedtopurgeuntrustworthy(orpotentially
untrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluenceandexpandits
territory.OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehind
theUSB,YakovlevsdeparturefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2June
notes)andthetensionsfollowingtheNemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.The
onlypersontheycanappealtoisPutin.TheBelykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.
#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.
Onceisanexception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformation
withintheregime.Thegovernorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,
andnowareavulnerablepartofthesystem.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acritical
delimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withitsprivilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade
(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).Thisishavinganimpactonnotonlythe
governors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(includingdeputyministers),andthe
headsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumberofavailable
benefitsisdecreasing.
Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntil
now,nomatterwhowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons
(whichmeantamemberofthesystemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:Anotherinteresting
pointtoponderasInotedearlier,theKremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviathe
NationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,producingthekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhave
suspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.Thesamecouldbetrueofthegovernorsnot
now,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butinaserious
#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeen
monopolized.TherealpowerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-
politicized,butanon-publicsortofpoliticsisaliveontheperiphery.Thedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeing
dividedbetweenthePresidentialAdministrationsdomesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespolitical
decorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakinguponthemselvestheroleofscenarist.Soarethesiloviky
independentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfromabove?
EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhave
sanctionedthearresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestof
Khodorkovskiy.Butthesituationhaschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemore
oftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthe
demi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookonprecisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.
Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theideathatthereisapacketofkompromaton
everyoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,thepresidentdoesntgivea
go-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheisawareofwhats
goingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.
#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborder
betweenthosewhohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthe
systemrecognizethosewhosearrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-
stabilization?Asthecircleofpotentialvictimsexpands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThe
tendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomeslessselectiveandlawenforcementbecomesmore
experiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgivingliberalizationachance,butitcould
havetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthoseconsideredthefounders
ofthesystem.
NobailforBelykh
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-
bail/574422.html
AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruption
charges,theTASSnewsagencyreportedWednesday.
Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28
millionrubles($430,000),TASSreported.
Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,
Belykhslawyer.ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnota
bribe-taker.HealsotoldjournaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappeal
hisdetentionandtoclearhisname,TASSreported.
BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwith
receivingbribesworth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernor
promotedtheinterestsoftwocompaniesintheKirovregion.
Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.He
maintainshisinnocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.
AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYabloko
party,GrigoryYavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.
Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthority
usually,anymovesinvolvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butin
Belykhscaseeventheoperationalworkbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.
InformationwasgatheredunderthecoverofgatheringmaterialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatfor
monthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergeyIvanov,andFSOpeoplewhowereheadedformallyand
informallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.Thesourcesaysthatthecreationofthe
NationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatweareafraidof,saysthe
source,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).Andthereis
abasisforfearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.
TheresnoguaranteethattheNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,in
theregions,andinmajorbanksandenterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernors
office,forexample,hasanFSOofficerkeepingwatch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasan
aideortakingoverthegovernorspost(Comment:ThatsareferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,
takingoverasTulagovernor).
FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguard
wasbeingcreated,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryof
StateSecurity(MGB)thatwouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefend
theindependenceoftheFSO.WithouttheFSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.Butthewheelswerealready
turningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancouldnotsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablow
againstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenkowasarrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthat
MurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.MurovalsosupposedlyintroducedMikhalchenkotoPutin,recommendinghim
asabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenkowasactuallyarrestedtwice
thefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequentlyreleased.Hewas
reprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinaboutthe
arrestandtheroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedon
thatveryday.
AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.The
FSBthenmovedtogetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingthe
headofDirectorateKofFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe
9JunenotesthatclaimedVoroninwasclosetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanov
washavinganimpactonpeopleconnectedtohimlikeLarisaKalanda).Voroninsdeparturewasfollowed
bymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.ButcadreturnoverhasbeendraggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclan
grewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.BothFSBandFSOsourcessaythattheKirovFSB
overplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthearrest.Firstofall,Putinwasnot
informedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.
ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.Ivan
Tkachevofthe6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadof
DirectorateKatFSBSEB,butisnowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthe
directoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwont
happen.
Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothe
notesfrom20JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity
(MOB)seemedtopointtoastrengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurge
theoldpowerstructuresandscreenofficersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasays
thatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwasabletosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOB
plan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butoneofoursourceshadZolotovdriftingaway
fromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedin
the2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwasreplacedbyKochnev,a
manfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.OnereasonIvehad
Zolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,
hesusingtheZolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedthe
MGB/MOBoperation.
Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemerger
goingforward?ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreened
byZolotovthattheFSBandBortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenot
beenopposedbyZolotov,maybethatretirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwas
compensationtotheFSBforthecreationoftheNatsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseen
asamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnotmeanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeand
vettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedbyZolotov.Wellhavetowaitand
seeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereareplentyofotherswho
mightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmovesmeantto
preventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.
IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31
Marchnotes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10
Junenotes.Abitinthe9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwe
sawaclaiminthosesamenotesthatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanov
aswell).TherewassomeconfusionaboutMikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,Iwent
overapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolvedinthekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburg
backin2004.Inthatscenario,MikhalchenkowasconnectedtotheFSB,whileTsepovwasclosetothe
FSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connectedRomodanovskiy,who,like
Zolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.
BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.But
TsepovstieswerestrongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.
Upuntilearly2004,BortnikovwasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirm
relationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohadsomelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-
alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovsmurderandMikhalchenkossteppinginto
takeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicatingfactorasmentionedabove,
RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewascloseto
Mikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.
OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,
the10Junenotes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovs
sphereofinfluence.Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSB
SEBbyInternalSecuritysKorolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimed
thathehadalreadytakenoverasheadofFSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsible
forthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadofDirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellas
headofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangesweresupposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaims
theywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaper
reportedWednesday,citingKremlinsources.
Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneof
Putinsscheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.
AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeen
indefinitelypostponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.
Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasa
schedulewhichcanbechanged.
ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagements
anddisappearedfrompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.
InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothrough
theregularlitanyofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missile
defenseandoverthrowingregimesin"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeploy
additionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWesterncountriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasized
Russia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStatesoninternationalaffairs."
Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStates
asthe"onlysuperpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.
OnavisittoFinlandafewdaysago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsaw
summitthisweek,acceptedNATO'sproposalforpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefense
ministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesovertheBalticSeawiththeirtransponderson.
Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensions
withtheWest.TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussia
andtheWestmanagedtodoafterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexert
controloverUkraine.
MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollback
theexpansionofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.
ThesepoliciesofmanagedconfrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwith
thedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin's
domesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.
Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetoprevent
itfromjoiningWesternalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,
diplomaticisolationandaruinedrelationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphere
ofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshoutanewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitary
positionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedasNATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptions
toMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbeganplanningforadditionaltroopdeployments,
araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStatesandNATOwasfastapproaching
apointofdiminishingreturns.
Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedandit
becameclearthatamoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFT
transactionscouldhaveresultedinadevastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.
Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwas
somewhatbreathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capable
ofdeployingmilitaryforceabroadtoaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad's
regimefromamilitarydefeat,butitsinvestmentofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimited
cooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almostayearafteritsintervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthe
vergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthisinvestment.Itdesperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclare
victoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperationwiththeUnitedStates,Turkey(hence
thelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.
Senttime: 07/06/201607:24:19PM
NobailforBelykh
somedilemmas
NobailforBelykh
reported.
changed.
tensions.
Senttime: 07/07/201607:44:50AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Thanks,Bob,forthesehelpfulamendments.
Ofcourse,weshouldkeepinmindthattheUSBFSBmaybynow(tenyearslater)containsomeformer
SPBofficerswhostillhavevividmemoriesofMikhalchenko'sgreed.
OnThu,Jul7,2016at12:59AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
ItwasntFSBofficersinStPitwasofficersfromtheUSBFSB(centralapparatus)whowentafterMikhalchenko.
ItsnotcleartomethatBortnikovwashiskryshaitisclearMurovwas.
OnJul6,2016,at4:21PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:


T
hisisagoodpoint,andremindsmethatIwasoftenstruckby
Mikhalchenko'sremarkablespeedandaggressivenessin
acquiring/seizingassets(andnodoubtpassingagoodpercentageofthe
valuetoBortnikov).Thismusthaveprovokedenvyandangerinalotof
FSBofficersinSPB.

P

Ifthisisthecase,itsmoreinterestingthanyoumightthinkatfirstblushsinceitwastheFSBthatwentafter
Mikhalchenko.


W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov
(p.3).LinksupwithwhatBobremindedmeabouttheother
day(andIforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-for
someyearsatleast-Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrest
wasprobablyonemorePutinthreattoBortnikov.
Best,
Peter
AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSB
wasafterEkhose-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkho
employeeshavebeencalledinforquestioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiy
wasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.
VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainst
PiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussian
Federation.
InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtothe
ProsecutorsofficeconcerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwas
postedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanofthe
ChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingfor
ChechnyatobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19February
aftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.
TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafrom
Russia.Ekhosubsequentlydeletedthelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.Thearticlesaidthat
RussiahadlosttheChechenwarandwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financingpalacesand
goldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,whileunemployedyouthswentofftofightforthe
Islamists.PiontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappywithKadyrovmaystarta
thirdChechenwar.
Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikita
Belykh(Seethenotesfrom27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthe
carpetbattleamongKremlinclans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,
sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-
competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.
Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,Piontkovskiy
toldKasparov.ru(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannot
removeKadyrovthatwouldbeanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushad
collapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyoftheregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionson
Chechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeisenteringaninevitablephaseof
possiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconceptinUkraine)and
PutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattackson
Kadyrovandhavesaidthattheregimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesof
palacecoups(PiontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacksonKadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).
PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thata
juntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwouldhavearmed
structuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,like
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingto
stepinaftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),though
PiontkovskiyseemstothinkheisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovs
armedformations.MoreonKhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswith
Khodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,thesilovikycouldturntoKhodoror
Navalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitionalleadership
wasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.Irecall
Belkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasa
transitionalfigure.
IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,and
listedthosehe(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedby
MedvedevthatwasmentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576A2CFD907B7
PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolved
Significantsocialforceswouldthenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtablein
theplaceofparliamentThesepeoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemup
ActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtablewillapprovechangestotheRussian
Constitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbeanagreementamongthe
armedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000wouldbe
enoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowill
decidethequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtable
atthatmoment,thepassivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntilthere
arehonestelections.Untilthen,theroundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,
honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartofthetransitionalleadership,as
couldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,its
anotherformofauthority
Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesan
exit):Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,
Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.
.,,,,
.-,,.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30
Junenotes,whichmentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.
Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?
post_add#post_add
.
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingto
MoscowinthreedozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsonthe
roads,withnumeroustrafficviolationstheFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryaboutthe
incident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalreadynothappywith
Bortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident
(AcademyGraduateshaveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheir
Service):http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereisvideoatthelink
SergeyKanevonBelykh
Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSB
USB)afterhisbossthere,SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSB
SEB),whileFSBUSBsIvanTkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14
June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtakingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawa
reportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.Feoktistovalsoplayedarolein
theGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.
NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargeting
Belykh:http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtime
aimedtotakeoverasheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardin
thedeckforhimBelykh,whohasbeencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),
wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,
declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteronimprovingthe
investmentclimateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeen
eyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,
PutinwasonatriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeen
hostiletoBelykhforsometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincome
AnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblastisthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytarget
thatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice(heheadedthe
VolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).
AleksandrwassaidtobeslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceis
convincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehadalready
reachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetention
onlyafterthefact.PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SK
operationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html
ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.Putinalsoabolishedthe
postofMVDInternalTroopsCommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,
noteight,deputies
http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-
gosudarstvennuyu-sluzhbu
PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseof
Rolduginscontributionstohumanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthened
friendshipandpeacebetweenpeoples
ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEvery
thirdfamilywithchildrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackon
meetingpaymentobligationsRealincomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asare
pricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionand
approvalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimeacampaign/annexation,his
approvalratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleandcorruptionscandals
havenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,butis
heldupbythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernments
approvalratingshavedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayand
theright/wrongdirectionnumberstrackwithMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime
Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:
Putinstrustratingisdownsignificantlysincelastspring):
50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrong
direction33%(33%18%)Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%last
month89%inJune,2015)Medvedevsapprovalratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis
48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name
5-6politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),followedbyShoygu
(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-
2017/574344.html
RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,
theReutersnewsagencyreportedTuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.
Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfive
timeswithinthreeyears.
TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDuma
andpresidentialelections,Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7
billion)overthreeyears.
Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusing
fundsandloans.Bytheendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserve
Fund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingto
ministrymaterials.
TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromthe
NationalWelfareFundin2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.
TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whenthe
StabilizationFundwassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdof
theNationalWelfareFundisinvestedinRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)
andotherprojects.
ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirst
deputyprosecutor-generalVladimirMalinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerof
DomodedovoairportDmitryKamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecan
removeanelectronicanklebraceletassoonastheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussia
receivesallthenecessarydocuments.
TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainst
topmanagersoftheairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeofthe
RussianFederationoverturnedtheremedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinued
theinvestigation
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-
crimea-since-russia-sanctions/574325.html
TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperate
inCrimea,theKommersantnewspaperreportedonTuesday.
Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsofthe
annexedpeninsulasinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.
Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbe
availabletopeoplearoundtheworld.
IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]
inCrimea,saidIsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.
InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssets
ControlgavethewebsiteaspeciallicensetoworkinCrimea.
Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailableto
everyone,wherevertheylive,saidthespokesperson.
Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.
Inaremarkableinterviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecase
matter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresa
possibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.
Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisa
collaboratorwiththeFSB.ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnot
changethefacts.
Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.More
importantly,heisthedeputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecial
services.The59-year-oldKlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingthe
Snowdencase.
HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).
KlintsevichsawactioninAfghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhis
biography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandain
Afghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRU
affiliation).
Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012with
hisshort-livedideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connected
memberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubt
thatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussiasspecialservices.
HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthe
tongue.Forwhateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisand
hasbeenforthreeyearsalready.
OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawson
domesticsurveillancewhichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowden
hassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmerican
collaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionand
worsemaybeasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.
Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthathe
andhismouthpieceshavepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasnever
anysortofbonafidespy.TherearenoindicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.
TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshed
onthemillion-plussecretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlin
propagandadesignedtodiscredittheWesternintelligencealliance.
Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscow
insideNSA.Inreality,theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormore
actualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,undetected.
BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesan
unhappyfuture.Whateverhappenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.
TherenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabouthisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthe
matteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestion
aboutthatnow.
Senttime: 07/06/201603:52:04PM
NobailforBelykh
somedilemmas
NobailforBelykh
reported.
changed.
tensions.
Senttime: 07/06/201609:59:17PM
Cc: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
ItwasntFSBofficersinStPitwasofficersfromtheUSBFSB(centralapparatus)whowentafterMikhalchenko.
ItsnotcleartomethatBortnikovwashiskryshaitisclearMurovwas.
OnJul6,2016,at4:21PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:


T
hisisagoodpoint,andremindsmethatIwasoftenstruckby
Mikhalchenko'sremarkablespeedandaggressivenessinacquiring/seizing
assets(andnodoubtpassingagoodpercentageofthevalueto
Bortnikov).ThismusthaveprovokedenvyandangerinalotofFSB
officersinSPB.

P

Ifthisisthecase,itsmoreinterestingthanyoumightthinkatfirstblushsinceitwastheFSBthatwentafter
Mikhalchenko.


W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).
LinksupwithwhatBobremindedmeabouttheotherday(and
Iforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-forsome
yearsatleast-Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwas
probablyonemorePutinthreattoBortnikov.

Best,

Peter

AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSB
wasafterEkhose-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkho
employeeshavebeencalledinforquestioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywas
questionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.Venediktov
himselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainstPiontkovskiyforpublic
callsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.
InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtothe
ProsecutorsofficeconcerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwas
postedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanofthe
ChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnya
tobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19Februaryafterthe
Prosecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.
TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafrom
Russia.Ekhosubsequentlydeletedthelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.Thearticlesaidthat
RussiahadlosttheChechenwarandwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financingpalacesandgolden
pistolsfortheChechenleaders,whileunemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.
PiontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappywithKadyrovmaystartathird
Chechenwar.
Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh
(Seethenotesfrom27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpet
battleamongKremlinclans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensesthe
ruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-
Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,Piontkovskiy
toldKasparov.ru(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannot
removeKadyrovthatwouldbeanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushad
collapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyoftheregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionson
Chechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeisenteringaninevitablephaseof
possiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconceptinUkraine)and
PutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattackson
Kadyrovandhavesaidthattheregimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalace
coups(PiontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacksonKadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).
PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thata
juntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwouldhavearmed
structuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,like
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingto
stepinaftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),though
PiontkovskiyseemstothinkheisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovs
armedformations.MoreonKhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswith
Khodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,thesilovikycouldturntoKhodoror
Navalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitionalleadership
wasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.Irecall
Belkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasa
transitionalfigure.
IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,and
listedthosehe(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedby
MedvedevthatwasmentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576A2CFD907B7
PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolved
Significantsocialforceswouldthenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtablein
theplaceofparliamentThesepeoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemup
ActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtablewillapprovechangestotheRussian
Constitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbeanagreementamongthe
armedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000wouldbe
enoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowill
decidethequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtable
atthatmoment,thepassivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntilthere
arehonestelections.Untilthen,theroundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,
honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartofthetransitionalleadership,as
couldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,its
Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesan
exit):Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,
Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.
.,,,,
.-,,.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30June
notes,whichmentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.
Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?
post_add#post_add
.
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingto
MoscowinthreedozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,
withnumeroustrafficviolationstheFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryaboutthe
incident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalreadynothappywith
Bortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident
(AcademyGraduateshaveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheir
Service):http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereisvideoatthelink
SergeyKanevonBelykh
Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSB
USB)afterhisbossthere,SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSB
SEB),whileFSBUSBsIvanTkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14
June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtakingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawa
reportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.Feoktistovalsoplayedarolein
theGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.
NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargeting
Belykh:http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtime
aimedtotakeoverasheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthe
deckforhimBelykh,whohasbeencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),was
reputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,declared
thatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteronimprovingtheinvestment
climateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeeneyeingBelykh
since2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,Putinwasona
triptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostiletoBelykhfor
sometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingthe
roundsinKirovOblastisthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrother
Aleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutors
office)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).Aleksandrwassaidtobeslatedfor
apositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptemberelections
havenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussia
abouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononly
afterthefact.PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperational
experimenttargetingBelykh:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html
ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.Putinalsoabolishedthepost
ofMVDInternalTroopsCommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,not
eight,deputies
http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-
gosudarstvennuyu-sluzhbu
PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseof
Rolduginscontributionstohumanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendship
andpeacebetweenpeoples
ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEvery
thirdfamilywithchildrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackon
meetingpaymentobligationsRealincomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asareprices
SlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionandapproval
PutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimeacampaign/annexation,hisapproval
ratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleandcorruptionscandalshavenothurt
PutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,butisheldupbythe
bureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernmentsapprovalratings
havedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrong
directionnumberstrackwithMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime
Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:
Putinstrustratingisdownsignificantlysincelastspring):
50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection
33%(33%18%)Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%in
June,2015)Medvedevsapprovalratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)
Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6politicians
orpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),
Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-
2017/574344.html
RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,the
ReutersnewsagencyreportedTuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.
Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimes
withinthreeyears.
TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDuma
andpresidentialelections,Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7
billion)overthreeyears.
Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusing
fundsandloans.Bytheendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserve
Fund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingto
ministrymaterials.
TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNational
WelfareFundin2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.
TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whenthe
StabilizationFundwassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdof
theNationalWelfareFundisinvestedinRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)
andotherprojects.
ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputy
prosecutor-generalVladimirMalinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerof
DomodedovoairportDmitryKamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecan
removeanelectronicanklebraceletassoonastheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussia
TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttop
managersoftheairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussian
Federationoverturnedtheremedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinuedthe
investigation
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-
crimea-since-russia-sanctions/574325.html
TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperate
inCrimea,theKommersantnewspaperreportedonTuesday.
Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsofthe
annexedpeninsulasinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.
Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbe
availabletopeoplearoundtheworld.
IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]
inCrimea,saidIsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.
InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssets
ControlgavethewebsiteaspeciallicensetoworkinCrimea.
Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,
wherevertheylive,saidthespokesperson.
Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.
Inaremarkableinterviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecase
matter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresa
possibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.
Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisa
collaboratorwiththeFSB.ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnot
changethefacts.
Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.More
importantly,heisthedeputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecial
services.The59-year-oldKlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingthe
Snowdencase.
HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).
KlintsevichsawactioninAfghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhis
biography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandain
Afghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRU
affiliation).
Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012with
hisshort-livedideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connected
memberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubt
thatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussiasspecialservices.
HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthe
tongue.Forwhateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisand
hasbeenforthreeyearsalready.
OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawson
domesticsurveillancewhichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhas
sostronglycriticizedfromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmericancollaboratorto
tweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybea
signthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.
Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthathe
andhismouthpieceshavepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasnever
anysortofbonafidespy.TherearenoindicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.
TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshed
onthemillion-plussecretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlin
propagandadesignedtodiscredittheWesternintelligencealliance.
Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscow
insideNSA.Inreality,theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormore
actualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,undetected.
BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappy
future.Whateverhappenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Thereno
longercanbeanyhonestdebateabouthisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceand
forall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.
Senttime: 07/06/201608:01:06AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Thisisagoodpoint,andremindsmethatIwasoftenstruckbyMikhalchenko'sremarkablespeedand
aggressivenessinacquiring/seizingassets(andnodoubtpassingagoodpercentageofthevalueto
Bortnikov).ThismusthaveprovokedenvyandangerinalotofFSBofficersinSPB.
W
ayne,
V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).LinksupwithwhatBob
remindedmeabouttheotherday(andIforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-for
someyearsatleast-Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwasprobablyonemorePutinthreat
toBortnikov.
Best,
Peter

AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafterEkhos
e-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledinfor
questioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVD
andonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopened
againstPiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussian
Federation.
InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutorsoffice
concerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,
asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimed
thatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnyatobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussia
on19FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.
unemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.Piontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappy
withKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.
Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethenotes
from27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlinclans.
TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingto
preserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.
(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwouldbe
anacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyofthe
regime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeisenteringan
inevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconceptinUkraine)
andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowasimplicatedinthe
NemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovandhavesaidthatthe
regimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(Piontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacks
onKadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon
(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhich
wouldhavearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,like
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingtostepinafterthe
regimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),thoughPiontkovskiyseemstothinkheis
referringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.MoreonKhodorkovskiys
commentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,the
silovikycouldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthe
transitionalleadershipwasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.Irecall
Belkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasatransitionalfigure.
(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwasmentioned
byKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7
peoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theround
tablewillapprovechangestotheRussianConstitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbe
anagreementamongthearmedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000
wouldbeenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowilldecidethe
questionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtableatthatmoment,the
passivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,the
roundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrin
couldbepartofthetransitionalleadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadership
wontbeadictatorship,itsanotherformofauthority
Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,
Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.
.,,,,.
-,,.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,which
mentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowinthree
dozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustrafficviolations
theFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryabouttheincident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwas
alreadynothappywithBortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(Academy
GraduateshaveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):
SergeyKanevonBelykh
TkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistov
takingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawareportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargeting
Belykh.FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotake
overasheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,who
hasbeencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,
speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoing
betteronimprovingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhas
beeneyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,Putinwason
atriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostiletoBelykhforsometimeas
hehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblastisthat
NikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromthe
Prosecutorsoffice(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29
Junenotes).AleksandrwassaidtobeslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceis
convincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreached
agreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthefact.
PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:
http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-gosudarstvennuyu-
sluzhbu
peoples
childrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligations
Realincomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapolling
forJuneonright/wrongdirectionandapprovalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimea
campaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleandcorruption
scandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,butisheldup
bythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernmentsapprovalratingshave
declined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrongdirectionnumberstrack
withMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime
50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%
18%)Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevs
approvalratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)
Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%in
March),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]
years.
Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.By
theendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.
Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.
TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFundin
2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.
TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilizationFund
wassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundis
investedinRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.
Kamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoon
astheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussiareceivesallthenecessarydocuments.
TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagersof
theairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturnedthe
remedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation
Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexedpeninsula
sinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.
Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailableto
peoplearoundtheworld.
IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,said
IsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.
Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.Inaremarkable
interviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.
Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.
Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththeFSB.
ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.
Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heis
thedeputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-old
KlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.
Afghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,that
ismilitaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-Political
AcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).
ideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.
GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)by
Russiasspecialservices.
whateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyearsalready.
OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomesticsurveillance
whichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSB
hideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnoted
SnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybeasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.
Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhis
mouthpieceshavepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafidespy.
TherearenoindicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.
TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-plus
secretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscreditthe
Westernintelligencealliance.
Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.Inreality,
theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohavebeen
lurkinginsideNSAforyears,undetected.
BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.Whatever
happenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Therenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabout
hisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowden
tobenashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.
Senttime: 07/06/201612:31:44PM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
Subject: OldGuardBillionairetoLeaveSinkingRussianShip-TheAmericanInterest(silovikiwar)
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/07/05/old-guard-billionaire-to-leave-sinking-russian-ship/
OldGuardBillionairetoLeaveSinkingRussian
Ship
MikhailProkhorov,51,oneofRussiaswealthiesttycoons(number14onForbeslistofthe
richestRussians),issellinghisbusinessassetsinRussia.ProkhorovsOneksimGroupislooking
forbuyersdirectlyandisnotusingmiddlemen,Vedomostireports,citingseveralsourcesinside
thegroup.
Onesksimownsa17.2percentstakeofthealuminumgiantUCRusal,27percentoftheRussian
fertilizerproducerUralkali,83.3percentoftheOPINrealestatedevelopmentcompany,75
percentoftheQuadrajoint-stockcompanyfocusingonpowergeneration,50percentofOptogan,
anLEDmanufacturer,and100percentofRenaissanceCapitalBank,RenaissanceCreditBank,
Soglasieinsurancecompany,andtheSnobandRBCmediaholdingcompanies.Inaddition,
Oneksimhasa19.7percentstakeintheInternationalFinancialClubjoint-stockbank(MFK),in
whichProkhorovalsopersonallyhasa27.7percentstake.
Prokhorovhasbeentryingtosellpartsofhisholdingsforawhilenow.Oneksimwasgoingtosell
Uralkaliayearago,andQuadra,SoglasieandRenaissanceCredithavebeinglookingforbuyers
foracoupleofyears.Thisisdifferent.
OnApril14th,whileVladimirPutinwashostinghisannualnationwidecall-inshow,theFSB
searchedOnesksimsheadquartersinMoscow,aswellastheofficesofallthreeofthebanksthe
groupowns.200officersoftheFSBandtheFederalTaxServiceweredeployedintheraid.
RussianmedialinkedtheraidstoPutinsdispleasurewiththereportingthatProkhorovs
independentRBCwasdoingonPutinsdaughtersvastwealthandstratosphericriseinacademia,
aswellastothecompanysongoinginvestigationsintothePanamaPapers.
TheFSB,however,explainedthatthesearcheswereduetocriminalinvestigationsintothe
troubledTavricheskyBank,whichhadhaditsoperatinglicenserevokedbytheRussianCentral
Bankduetocapitalizationproblems.ProkhorovsMFKwaschosenasthechiefinvestorin
TavricheskysresolutionproceedingsinMarchoflastyear.Afewmonthslater,in
September,twoformerexecutivesofTavricheskyweredetainedundersuspicionofillegally
withdrawing$6millionabroad.
ItstruethatRBCseditorialboardwaspurgedlessthanamonthafterthesearches,and
Prokhorovisinfactsaidtobelookingforabuyerforhismediacompanies.Butasitturnsout,all
thatwasduetoaparallellineofpressurecomingfromtheKremlin.Inthecaseoftheraids
againstOneksim,theFSBwastellingthetruth:thoseraidsreallyhadnothingtodowithRBC.
TheTavricheskycriminalinvestigationwasnottheonlyattackonProkhorovsbusinessinterests.
InAprilofthisyear,MFKsdepositorssuddenlywithdrew10billionrubles($151million)from
thebank.AsVedomostireported,bothcorporateandprivateclientsemptiedtheiraccounts
accordingtothebanksrecords.RenaissanceCreditBankalsolostdepositstotaling3billion
rubles($46million)inApril.MFKdeclinedtoofficiallycomment,andRussianmediaproceeded
toconnectthemassdepositoutflowfromProkhorovsbankwithAprilsFSBsearches.This,
however,couldnotbetherealreasonforthecapitalflight,becauseinApril,RenaissanceCredit
waspositionedmuchhigherthanMFKinRussiasofficialbankrankings(RenaissanceCreditwas
ranked60,comparedtoMFKs71,meaningitissignificantlylargermeasuredbynetassets).
Yetitsufferedmuchsmallerlosses.ThissuggestsMFKslosseswereinfactnotduetoapublic
panictriggeredbythenewsoftheraids(whichwouldhaveaffectedbothbanksproportionately),
butratherbysomethingelse.
ThisisnotthefirsttimethatalargeRussianbankhassufferedasuddenmassoutflowofdeposits
inrecenthistory.InOctoberof2015,depositorswithdrew15.6billionrubles(around3percent
ofalldeposits)fromAlfaBank,the7thlargestbankinRussia.Thecapitalflightoccurredright
afterthebankhadbeencompromisedbymysterioushackers,whoproceededtosendthe
followingtextmessagetoitsclients:Fromprettyreliablesources:AlfaBankshareholdershave
withdrawntheirassetsfromthebankandoutofthecountry.Theaftermathoftheattackwas
alsoodd:Thebanksrepresentativesdeniedthattherewasanyconnectionbetweenthecapital
outflowsandthehacks,andinsteadtriedtoexplainawaythedepositoutflowasbeingdue
tocurrencyfluctuations.Reportswerefiledwithlawenforcementagencies,butnofurtheraction
wastaken.AlfaBanksfounderandpart-owner,MikhailFridman,isknowntobearuthless
businessman.Haditbeenacompetitor,Fridmanwouldnothavehesitatedtoretaliate.
Tounderstandwhatisgoingon,itsimportanttorememberthattheFSBsDirectorateK
officiallyknownastheCounterintelligenceDepartmentforSecuringtheFinancial-CreditSector
oftheEconomicSecurityServiceoftheFSBisresponsibleforoverseeingRussiasfinancial
sector.Assuch,ithasbeenabletoshakedownthatpartoftheeconomyforhundredsofmillions
ofdollarseachyear.TheFSBfrequentlyarrestsbankersandbusinessmenontrumped-up
chargesanddemandsitsunfairshareoftheirbusinesses.Butitdoesnotnecessarilyneedtogo
thatfar.Itsquitepossiblethatunanticipated,mysteriousbankrunsarebeingusedtosenda
signaltoowners:Comeandmakeadealwithus,andeverythingwillbefine.
Apparently,Fridmanmanagedtocometosomesortofworkingarrangement.Prokhorov,who
hasalwayshadareputationassomeonewithclearexitstrategies,appearstohaverealizedthatit
istimetogo.
Aswenotedlastweek,thereisahugeongoingfightinsidetheFSB,betweentheorganizations
DirectorateKandits6thService.Theformerhasmadesubstantialinroadsintothelattersbank
regulationracket,andasNovayaGazetadescribesit,isnowsignalingthatallprevious
arrangementswillneedtoberenegotiated.Thefalloutinthebusinesscommunityis
alreadysubstantial,andwillprobablygetworse.Inakleptocratic,militarizedstatesuchas
modernRussia,runningabusinessisincreasinglybecomingimpossible.Moneydoesntgiveone
powerintodaysRussia.Rather,asBillBrowder,thevigilanteinvestorbehindtheMagnitsky
Act,explainedtousafewweeksago,Powergoestothepeoplewhohavethepowertoarrest
otherpeople.
Putinsregimehasstartedtoeateventhosewhohavealwaysbeenitsloyalcourtesans.
Prokhorov,whocameupinYeltsinstime,dutifullyheadedthespoilerJustCausepartyinthe
2011Dumaelections,andevenplayedtheroleoftheofficiallysanctionedoppositionby
runningagainstPutininthe2012presidentialelections.Noneofthishasmadehimuntouchable.
ProkhorovisnowabandoninghisRussianbusinesses,andprobablyRussiatoo.
OutsidethecountryProkhorovowns100%oftheBrooklynNets,whichheacquiredin2010.
Senttime: 07/05/201603:38:12PM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
W
ayne,
V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).LinksupwithwhatBobremindedmeabout
theotherday(andIforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-forsomeyearsatleast-
Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwasprobablyonemorePutinthreattoBortnikov.
Best,
Peter
AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafterEkhose-mail
correspondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledinforquestioningbytheFSBand
MVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.
VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainstPiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactions
thatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.
InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutorsofficeconcerninga
Piontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeen
madebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnya
tobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncovered
whatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.
TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafromRussia.Ekhosubsequentlydeleted
thelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.ThearticlesaidthatRussiahadlosttheChechenwarandwasnowpayingoffGrozny,
financingpalacesandgoldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,whileunemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.
PiontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappywithKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.
Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethenotesfrom27,28,
and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlinclans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,
accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-
Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,PiontkovskiytoldKasparov.ru(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwouldbeanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasus
hadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyoftheregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbring
himtopower).Theregimeisenteringaninevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussian
worldconceptinUkraine)andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovandhavesaidthatthe
regimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(PiontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacksonKadyrova
sluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof
7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwouldhavearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:
KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,likeKhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhis
supportersarepreparingtostepinaftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),though
PiontkovskiyseemstothinkheisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.Moreon
KhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,the
silovikycouldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitionalleadership
wasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.IrecallBelkovskiy,whoIthinkworks
forKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasatransitionalfigure.
IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,andlistedthosehe(Illarionov)figured
mightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwasmentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:
http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7
PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolvedSignificantsocialforceswould
thenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtableintheplaceofparliamentThesepeoplewillhavearmed
supporterswillingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtablewillapprovechangestotheRussian
Constitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbeanagreementamongthearmedformationsTheround
tablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000wouldbeenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnouton
thestreets,itistheywhowilldecidethequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtable
atthatmoment,thepassivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,
theroundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartof
thetransitionalleadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,its
Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesanexit):Khodorkovskiy,
Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,
Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.
.,,,,.-
,,.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,whichmentioneda
Bortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowinthreedozen
MercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustrafficviolationstheFSBwasforced
toopenanofficialinquiryabouttheincident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalreadynothappywithBortnikov:
http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(AcademyGraduateshave
DestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereis
videoatthelink
SergeyKanevonBelykh
Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)afterhisbossthere,
SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),whileFSBUSBsIvanTkachevwouldtakeoverat
FSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtakingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesaw
areportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,
forinstance,the14May2014notes.
NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh:http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotakeoverasheadof
hisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,whohasbeencriticizedbyPutin
previously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,
declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteronimprovingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhave
beenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeeneyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*Ontheday
Belykhwasarrested,PutinwasonatriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostileto
BelykhforsometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblast
isthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice
(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).Aleksandrwassaidto
beslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingto
dowithBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthe
system
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthefact.Putinwasin
BeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:
ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.PutinalsoabolishedthepostofMVDInternalTroops
CommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,noteight,deputies
http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-gosudarstvennuyu-sluzhbu
PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseofRolduginscontributionsto
humanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendshipandpeacebetweenpeoples
ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEverythirdfamilywithchildrendoesnt
havemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligationsRealincomesarefallingand
unemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionand
approvalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimeacampaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdropped
below80%.ThedeclineoftherubleandcorruptionscandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantsto
improvethingsforthepeople,butisheldupbythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthe
governmentsapprovalratingshavedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrong
Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:Putinstrustratingisdown
significantlysincelastspring):
50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%18%)Hardtosay
18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevsapprovalratingisat51%(54%inMay),
whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6
politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),
Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]
RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,theReutersnewsagencyreported
Tuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.
Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimeswithinthreeyears.
TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDumaandpresidentialelections,
Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7billion)overthreeyears.
Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.Bytheendof
2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.Thisfundwillbeemptied
atsomepointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.
TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFundin2017and883
billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.
TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilizationFundwassplitinto
theReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundisinvestedinRussianstate
developmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.
ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputyprosecutor-generalVladimir
Malinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerofDomodedovoairportDmitryKamenshchikfromhousearrest.
AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoonastheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussia
TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagersoftheairportbe
droppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturnedtheremedialactionorderofthe
procuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-crimea-since-russia-
sanctions/574325.html
TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperateinCrimea,theKommersant
newspaperreportedonTuesday.
Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexedpeninsulasinceFeb.1,
2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.
Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailabletopeoplearoundthe
world.
IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,saidIsaacFrumin
fromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.
InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssetsControlgavethewebsiteaspecial
licensetoworkinCrimea.
Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,wherevertheylive,saidthe
spokesperson.
Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.Inaremarkableinterviewthis
week,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.
Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.
Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththeFSB.Thathereally
hadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.
Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heisthedeputychair
ofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-oldKlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystate
secretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.
HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).KlintsevichsawactioninAfghanistaninthe
1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkin
specialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).
Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012withhisshort-livedideatobuyHitlers
birthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.Givenhissenatecommittee
positionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussiasspecialservices.
HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthetongue.Forwhateverreason,Putin
hasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyearsalready.
OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomesticsurveillancewhichvastly
exceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinally
allowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemay
beasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.
Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhismouthpieceshave
propagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafidespy.Therearenoindicationshereally
understandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.
TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-plussecretfileshe
stole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscredittheWesternintelligencealliance.
Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.Inreality,theSnowden
OperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,
undetected.
BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.Whateverhappenstohim
isuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Therenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabouthisrelationshipwiththe
Kremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestionabout
thatnow.
Senttime: 07/05/201611:02:34AM
FW:"theFSBareseizingthecorrespondenceofthesite'EkhoMoskvy'withAndreiPIONTKOVSKII,"
Subject:
http://graniru.org/Society/Law/m.252821.html
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,July05,201611:02AM
Subject:"theFSBareseizingthecorrespondenceofthesite'EkhoMoskvy'withAndreiPIONTKOVSKII,"
http://graniru.org/Society/Law/m.252821.html
ThechiefeditorofthewebsiteofEkhoMoskvyandotheremployeesofthesitehavebeensummoned
totheFSBforformalquestioning.
ThefocusoftheFSBsattentionhasbeenthesitescorrespondencewithoppositionmathematician
AndreiPiontkovskywholeftRussiainFebruary.
Piontkovskyischargedwithpublicappealstocarryoutactionsdirectedattheinfringementofthe
territorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.[ThereferenceistohisviewsonCrimeaandthe
Donbas]
And:FranklinFoer,PUTINsPUPPET:IftheRussianpresidentcoulddesignacandidatetoundermine
AmericaninterestsandadvancehisownheslookalotlikeDonaldTRUMP,slate.com,7/4
11pageheavilydocumentedessay
OneproKremlinbloggersummeduphisgovernmentsinterestinthis[American]]electionwith
clarifyingbluntness:TrumpwillsmashAmericaasweknowit,wevegotnothingtolose.
Senttime: 07/05/201611:03:45PM
W
ayne,
V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).LinksupwithwhatBobreminded
meabouttheotherday(andIforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-forsomeyearsat
least-Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwasprobablyonemorePutinthreattoBortnikov.
Best,
Peter
AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafterEkhos
e-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledinfor
questioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDand
onPiontkovskiysattheFSB.VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainst
PiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.
InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutorsoffice
concerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,
asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthat
PiontkovskiywascallingforChechnyatobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19
FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.
unemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.Piontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappy
withKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.
Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethenotes
from27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlinclans.
TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingto
preserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.
(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwouldbe
anacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyofthe
regime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeisenteringan
inevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconceptinUkraine)
andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowasimplicatedinthe
NemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovandhavesaidthatthe
regimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(Piontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattackson
Kadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon
(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwould
havearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,like
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingtostepinafterthe
regimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),thoughPiontkovskiyseemstothinkheis
referringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.MoreonKhodorkovskiys
commentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,thesiloviky
couldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitional
leadershipwasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.Irecall
Belkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasatransitionalfigure.
(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwasmentioned
byKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7
peoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtable
willapprovechangestotheRussianConstitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbean
agreementamongthearmedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000would
beenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowilldecidethequestion
ofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtableatthatmoment,thepassivemajority
wonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,theroundtablewillact
asvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartofthe
transitionalleadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,
itsanotherformofauthority
Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,
Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.
.,,,,.
-,,.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,which
mentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowinthree
dozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustrafficviolations
theFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryabouttheincident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalready
nothappywithBortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(AcademyGraduates
haveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):
SergeyKanevonBelykh
TkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtaking
overatFSBUSB.On28June,wesawareportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.
FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotakeover
asheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,whohas
beencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingat
theSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteron
improvingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeeneyeing
Belykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,Putinwasonatripto
ChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostiletoBelykhforsometimeashehadcut
themofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblastisthatNikitaBelykh
wasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice(he
headedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).Aleksandrwas
saidtobeslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptember
electionshavenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaaboutthe
electionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthefact.
PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:
peoples
childrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligationsReal
incomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingfor
Juneonright/wrongdirectionandapprovalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimea
campaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleandcorruption
scandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,butisheldup
bythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernmentsapprovalratingshave
declined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrongdirectionnumberstrack
withMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime
50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%18%)
Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevsapproval
ratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Duma
approvalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),
followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]
years.
Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.By
theendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.
Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.
TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFundin
2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.
TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilizationFund
wassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundisinvested
inRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.
Kamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoonas
theFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussiareceivesallthenecessarydocuments.
TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagersof
theairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturnedthe
remedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation
Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexedpeninsula
sinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.
Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailabletopeople
aroundtheworld.
IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,said
IsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.
Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.Inaremarkable
interviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.
Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.
Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththeFSB.
ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.
Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heisthe
deputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-oldKlintsevich
thushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.
Afghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatis
militaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-Political
AcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).
ideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.
GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussias
specialservices.
whateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyearsalready.
OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomesticsurveillance
whichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSB
hideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnoted
SnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybeasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.
Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhismouthpieces
havepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafidespy.Thereareno
indicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.
TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-plus
secretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscreditthe
Westernintelligencealliance.
Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.Inreality,
theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurking
insideNSAforyears,undetected.
BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.Whatever
happenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Therenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabout
hisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdento
benashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.
Senttime: 07/05/201603:27:40PM
SergeyKanevonBelykh
AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafterEkhose-mail
correspondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledinforquestioningbytheFSBand
MVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.Venediktov
himselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainstPiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwould
violatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.
InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutorsofficeconcerninga
Piontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeen
madebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnyato
beseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncovered
whatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.
TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafromRussia.Ekhosubsequentlydeletedthe
lasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.ThearticlesaidthatRussiahadlosttheChechenwarandwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financing
palacesandgoldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,whileunemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.Piontkovskiy
furtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappywithKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.
Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethenotesfrom27,28,and
29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlinclans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,
accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-
Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,PiontkovskiytoldKasparov.ru(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwouldbeanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasus
hadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyoftheregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbring
himtopower).Theregimeisenteringaninevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussian
worldconceptinUkraine)andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovandhavesaidthatthe
regimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(PiontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacksonKadyrova
sluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof
7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwouldhavearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:
KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,likeKhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhis
supportersarepreparingtostepinaftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),though
PiontkovskiyseemstothinkheisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.Moreon
KhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,the
silovikycouldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitionalleadership
wasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.IrecallBelkovskiy,whoIthinkworksfor
Khodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasatransitionalfigure.
IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,andlistedthosehe(Illarionov)figured
mightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwasmentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:
http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7
PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolvedSignificantsocialforceswouldthen
place7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtableintheplaceofparliamentThesepeoplewillhavearmedsupporters
willingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtablewillapprovechangestotheRussianConstitution,
ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbeanagreementamongthearmedformationsTheroundtablewillbe
supportedbyaminority,buteven50,000wouldbeenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itis
theywhowilldecidethequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtableatthatmoment,
thepassivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,theroundtablewill
actasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartofthetransitional
leadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,itsanotherformof
authority
Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesanexit):Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,
Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,
Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.
.,,,,.-
,,.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,whichmentioneda
Bortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowinthreedozenMercedes
Gelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustrafficviolationstheFSBwasforcedtoopenan
officialinquiryabouttheincident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalreadynothappywithBortnikov:
http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(AcademyGraduateshave
DestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereis
videoatthelink
SergeyKanevonBelykh
Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)afterhisbossthere,Sergey
Korolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),whileFSBUSBsIvanTkachevwouldtakeoveratFSB
SEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtakingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawa
reportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,
forinstance,the14May2014notes.
NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh:http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotakeoverasheadofhis
directorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,whohasbeencriticizedbyPutin
previously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,
declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteronimprovingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhave
beenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeeneyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*Ontheday
Belykhwasarrested,PutinwasonatriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostileto
BelykhforsometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblast
isthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice
(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).Aleksandrwassaidtobe
slatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingtodo
withBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthe
system
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthefact.Putinwasin
BeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:
ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.PutinalsoabolishedthepostofMVDInternalTroops
CommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,noteight,deputies
PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseofRolduginscontributionsto
humanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendshipandpeacebetweenpeoples
ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEverythirdfamilywithchildrendoesnt
havemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligationsRealincomesarefallingand
unemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionand
approvalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimeacampaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdropped
below80%.ThedeclineoftherubleandcorruptionscandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantsto
improvethingsforthepeople,butisheldupbythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthe
governmentsapprovalratingshavedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrong
Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:Putinstrustratingisdown
significantlysincelastspring):
50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%18%)Hardtosay
18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevsapprovalratingisat51%(54%inMay),
whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6
politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),
Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]
RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,theReutersnewsagencyreported
Tuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.
Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimeswithinthreeyears.
TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDumaandpresidentialelections,Reuters
reported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7billion)overthreeyears.
Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.Bytheendof2016,
therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsome
pointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.
TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFundin2017and883
billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.
TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilizationFundwassplitintothe
ReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundisinvestedinRussianstatedevelopment
bankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.
ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputyprosecutor-generalVladimir
Malinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerofDomodedovoairportDmitryKamenshchikfromhousearrest.
AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoonastheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussia
TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagersoftheairportbe
droppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturnedtheremedialactionorderofthe
procuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-crimea-since-russia-
sanctions/574325.html
TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperateinCrimea,theKommersant
newspaperreportedonTuesday.
Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexedpeninsulasinceFeb.1,
2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.
Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailabletopeoplearoundthe
world.
IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,saidIsaacFrumin
fromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.
InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssetsControlgavethewebsiteaspecial
licensetoworkinCrimea.
Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,wherevertheylive,saidthe
spokesperson.
Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.Inaremarkableinterviewthisweek,
FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisis
whatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.
Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththeFSB.Thathereallyhad
nochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.
Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heisthedeputychairof
thesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-oldKlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystate
secretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.
HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).KlintsevichsawactioninAfghanistaninthe
1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkin
specialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).
Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012withhisshort-livedideatobuyHitlers
birthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.Givenhissenatecommitteeposition
andhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussiasspecialservices.
HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthetongue.Forwhateverreason,Putin
hasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyearsalready.
OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomesticsurveillancewhichvastly
exceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinally
allowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybe
asignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.
Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhismouthpieceshave
propagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafidespy.Therearenoindicationshereally
understandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.
TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-plussecretfileshe
stole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscredittheWesternintelligencealliance.
Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.Inreality,theSnowden
OperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,
undetected.
BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.Whateverhappenstohimis
uptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.TherenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabouthisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,
whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.
Senttime: 07/05/201609:56:13AM
FW:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeontheEPCouncilandItsresult
Subject:
(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-...
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,July04,20161:12PM
Subject:Fwd:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeontheEP
CouncilandItsresult(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at4:10PM
Subject:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeonthe
EPCouncilandItsresult(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNewsSomeSound
AdvicefromPBtoAnt/FaboutaPL-UAconflictthatRUseemstobestirring
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:hunter@
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at8:01AM
Subject:TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehavior[ED:Asalways,atimelypiecefromJoshR...]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendous
behavior
ByJoshRogin
Opinions
July3at7:18PM
JoshRoginisaWashingtonPostGlobalOpinionscolumnist.
TheU.S.-Russiarelationshipistoobigtofail,butitsfailing.
TheObamaadministrationcameintoofficewithabigideaaboutthisrelationship:thatthesetwoworldpowersmustworktogetheronareasof
mutualinteresteveniftheystillworkedagainsteachotherwheretheirinterestsdiverged.Theconceptwassound,butasrelationshavedeteriorated
andRussiahastakenamoreantagonisticstance,theUnitedStateshasfailedtoadapt.
LastweeksrevelationthattheadministrationisproposingincreasedmilitarycooperationwithRussiainSyria,inexchangeforRussianagreementto
abidebythecease-fireithadalreadyagreedto,wasastarkexampleofhowtheadministrationstheoryabouthowtoworkwithRussiaisbeing
misappliedontheground.WashingtonisofferingMoscowbothareprievefromthepoliticalandmilitaryisolationitimposedaftertheinvasionof
UkraineandarewardfortakingunilateralmilitaryactiondesignedtoundermineU.S.policyinSyria.
TheWhiteHouseandtheStateDepartmentbelievethattheonlywaytomakeprogressinSyriaistoworkwithMoscow,evenifthatmeanssetting
theisolationefforttooneside.Thatmakessomesense,butonlyifRussiaactuallyhonorsitsagreementsinSyriaandmakesprogresstoward
resolvingtheUkrainecrisis.
Butneitherofthesethingsishappening.Ukrainesrecentlydepartedprimeminister,ArseniyYatsenyuk,toldmelastweekthatwhileRussiahas
successfullydistractedtheworldfromtheUkrainecrisis,theRussianmilitarycontinuesamedium-boilmilitarycampaigninviolationoftheMinsk
agreement.
EverysingledaytheykillUkrainiansoldiers,everysingledaythedeathtollisrising,everysingledaywevegotciviliancasualties.Thereisnocease-
fireontheground,hesaid.
ToYatsenyuk,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsstrategyisclear.RussiawillpretendtoworkwithWesternpowersandevenstrikedealswhenthe
dealsaresweetenough.Butbyselectivelyviolatingtheagreementswhilemanipulatingothergovernmentsandthemedia,Putinwillcontinuetomake
steadyprogresstowardhisanti-Western,anti-democraticobjectives.ForYatsenyuk,theressimplynowaytoworkconstructivelywiththecurrent
Kremlin.
IdontbelievethatyoucanagreeonanythingsubstantialwiththeRussianFederationbecausetheU.S.isanenemytotheRussianFederationin
theirview,hesaid.Theycanhavetalks,theycanhavedebates,theycanevenagreeonsomenon-existentialissues.Butthereisanexistential
difference.Thesearejusttwodifferentworlds.
TheUnitedStatescannotaffordtowriteofftheU.S.-Russiarelationship.Thereistruthtotheargumentthattheworldsmostpressingproblems,
includingIslamicextremism,cannotbesolvedwithoutsomeRussianinvolvement.ButWashingtoncannotignoreRussiasincreasinglyhorrendous
behavior.RussiasdangerousmilitarymaneuversnearU.S.shipsarenowregularoccurrences.RussianharassmentandintimidationofU.S.
diplomatsacrossEuropeisatanall-timehigh.Russiangovernmentcyberespionageandpropagandacampaignshaverunamok.
Thefactis,theyareengagedinanewglobalColdWaragainsttheU.S.,saidSamuelCharap,seniorfellowattheInternationalInstitutefor
StrategicStudies.Theresabsolutelynoquestionaboutthat.WehavethisfesteringwoundontherelationshipthatnobodyontheU.S.sideis
spendingmuchtimetryingtofix.
TheUnitedStateshascomplicatedrelationshipswithlotsofproblematiccountries.China,forexample,isinternallyrepressiveandexternally
aggressive,buttheresnothoughtofcuttingoffrelationswithBeijing.Similarly,thepolicyofisolatingRussiaaspunishmentforitsinvasionofUkraine
haslimits.Russiawasdeterminednottocavetosanctions,andiftherecentvoteintheFrenchsenateisanyindication,thesanctionsregimewillnot
lastforever.
Putinisaverysmart,sophisticatedpoliticalanimal,saidYatsenyuk.Hecanwaitandwaitforaquitelongandextensiveperiodoftime.Heknows
howtheWesternpowersact.
TheUnitedStatesmustestablishanewrelationshipwithRussiathatisintellectuallyhonestaboutMoscowsactionsandintentionswhilepreserving
whatevercooperationispossible.ThatmaymeanfindinganendgametotheUkrainesanctionsbeforetheycrumbleundertheirownweight.Butit
alsomeanspushingbackmoreagainstRussianprovocationsandraisingthecostforPutinwhenheactsoutonotherfronts.
DefenseSecretaryAshtonB.Carter,whointernallyopposedPresidentObamasnewSyriaproposal,saidlastweekthatifRussiawoulddothe
rightthinginSyriathatsanimportantconditionasinallcaseswithRussia,werewillingtoworkwiththem.
TheU.S.governmentneedstocomeupwithacredibleanswertothecorrespondingquestion:WhatisitwillingtodoifRussiacontinuestodothe
wrongthings?
Readmoreaboutthistopic:
From:OlegLitwinow<olitwin45@gmail.com>
Subject:Re:ThankstoRussia,UkrainiansSwellRanksofKyivPatriarchate[ED:PartofaLargerDiscussionGoingonintheCA
UOCCommunity]
To:valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>
Cc:MykolaJemetz<mjemetz@yahoo.ca>,24MORE
Val,etal.,
Wemustadmitthatallnon-imperialistOrthodoxshouldbehappythatthisSoborwassuchaspectacularRussianpropagandafailureduetothenon-
attendanceoftheRussianfactionandcool-handBart'srefusaltobudge.SomedelegatestotheSobormayhavebeenshort-changed(Serbs)but
Orthodoxywastherealwinner.TheROCraccoon-dogsyelped,butthecaravanmovedon.WecanonlyhopethatBartwillresisthistemptationto
negotiateforbetterdealsfromMoscowinexchangeforignoringtheattemptedkickinthefacehealmostgotfromPutin(hadhecancelledthe
Sobor).
Putin'sinvasiontransformedUkraine.Putin'sthreatsrejuvenatedNATO.Putin'sorderofnon-attendanceexposedanddemonstratedthefascist
natureoftheROC(farfromecumenical!)anditsimperialistRusskyMirphilosophy.
Therecanbenopeacefulco-existencewithPutin'schurch.TheROCmustbekickedoutorsplitoffmainstreamOrthodoxybecauseofitsinability
toexcludeitselffromcolludingwiththeforeignpolicyofMoscow,renderingitincompatiblewithanymoralethicbutthedevil's.LikePutin,the
ROCbelievesthatpromisesaremadetobebroken.TheROCbelievesthattherecanbenoecumenismandnocooperationwithinOrthodoxyuntil
aNaziMoscowbecomestheThirdRomeandimposesaRusskiMironallOrthodox.ThiswasthelessonthatwastaughtattheSobor.
TheSoborconfigurationandfailedattemptatdisruptiondemonstratedthattheROCandtherestofOrthodoxysubscribetomutuallyexclusive
systemsofvalue.SeeJuly3,2016Windowoneurasia"LudditesoftheWorldComingTogethertoSavePutin"byS.Ilchenko.
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Subject:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNews
'SurferRepublican'Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocatein
Congress
BYMARIADANILOVA,ASSOCIATEDPRESS
WhenseveralmembersofCongressaccusedVladimirPutin'sRussiaofhumanrightsabusesandaggression
towarditsneighbors,aveteranCaliforniacongressmanstoodvirtuallyaloneinurgingamorecautionarystance.
For69-year-oldRep.DanaRohrabacher,aself-described"surferRepublican,"thiswasn'tatotallyunexpectedposition:he'slong
beenvirtuallythelonepro-RussianvoiceonCapitolHill.
"Rightfromthebeginningwe'vehadthisincrediblehostility,"Rohrabacher,whohasdefendedPresidentVladimirPutinandurgeda
dialoguewiththeKremlin,lamentedatarecentcongressionalhearing.HeurgedbothRussiaandtheUnitedStatesatthetimeto
"takeadeepbreathandastepback."
Thispastspring,Rohrabacher'spositiondrewsupportfromDonaldTrump,thepresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnominee,who
advocatesgivingrelationswithMoscowanotherchance."Commonsensesaysthiscycleofhostilitymustend,"Trumpsaidina
speechinApril.
AformerspeechwriterforPresidentRonaldReagan,the14-termRohrabachertakesprideinhavingworkedtoweaken"ourmajor
globalenemyatthattime,theSovietUnion."AlargephotoinhisofficeshowshiminthehillsofAfghanistaninthe1980s,where,he
toldTheAssociatedPressinaninterview,helaunchedrocketsatSovietpositionsasavolunteerfighter.
Rohrabacher'sviewchangedwhentheSovietUnioncollapsedin1991,andRussiaemergedasadifferentcountry.Althoughhe
acknowledgesthatoppositionleadersfacerepressioninRussia,healsosaysthecountryallowsreligiousfreedomandisgenerally
moreopenthanitspredecessor.
Inthemid-1990s,RohrabachergotatasteofRussianpolitics,hesays,whenhewelcomedadelegationofyoungRussianpolitical
leaders,whichincludedPutin,whothenworkedforthemayorofSt.Petersburg.Afterafriendlyfootballmatch,thegroupwenttoa
nearbypubandstartedarguingoverwhethertheSovietUnionlosttheColdWar.Thedebateturnedintoanarm-wrestlingmatch
betweenPutinandRohrabacher,whichPutinwon.
"IendedupwithPutin,andhebeatmejustlikethat,"Rohrabachersaid,snappinghisfingers.
NowRohrabachersayshebelievespolicymakersinWashingtonmisunderstandRussiaandtreatitunfairly.Insteadoffightinganother
ColdWar,RussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldfocusondefeatingIslamicextremism."Weshouldnotbeinahostilerelationshipit's
nottothebenefitoftheirpeopleorourpeopletodothis,"RohrabachertoldTheAP.
JohnE.Herbst,aformerU.S.ambassadortoUkrainedisagrees,citingRussia'swarwithGeorgia,itsannexationofCrimeaandits
involvementintheseparatistconflictineasternUkraine.
"HehasbeenaconsistentvoiceinCongressforweakpoliciestowardsanaggressiveKremlin,"HerbstsaidofRohrabacher."Ihave
noreasontoquestionhisintegrityIhavelotsofreasontoquestionhisjudgment."
Thelawmaker'scritics,however,areunconvincedofhisintentions,sayingthatRohrabacherisn'tjustadvocatingforworldpeacebut
isinsteadpushinganagendathatbenefitstheRussiangovernment.
AmajorsorepointinU.S.-Russianrelationsisa2012lawimposingtravelbansandassetfreezeson39Russianofficialsdeemed
implicatedinthejailhousedeathofRussianwhistleblowerSergeiMagnitsky.MagnitskywasarrestedsoonafterheaccusedRussian
officialsofstealingsome$230millionofgovernmentmoneyinataxfraudschemetheRussianpresidentialcouncilonhumanrights
concludedhewasbeatenanddeniedmedicaltreatmentinjail.
MagnitskyworkedforBritish-AmericanfinancierWilliamBrowder,whoranRussia'slargestinvestmentfundbeforebeingexpelled
fromthecountryin2005.Browder,wholobbiedforthelawthatbecameknownastheMagnitskyAct,hastracedthemissingmoney
toaccountslinkedtoRussianofficialsinvariouscountriesandhassoughttofreezetheassets.ANewYorkcourtiscurrently
examiningthecaseofaRussian-ownedholdingcompanycalledPrevezon,whose$14millionworthofassetshavebeenfrozenbythe
U.S.governmentinconnectionwiththefraud.
TheMagnitskyActinfuriatedofficialsinMoscow,manyofwhomliketotravel,buypropertyandeducatetheirchildrenintheWest.
RussiaretaliatedbybanningAmericanfamiliesfromadoptingRussianorphans.
Thisspring,RohrabachermetwithRussianofficialswhileonatriptoMoscowandthensatdownwithaPrevezonrepresentativein
Washington.
InMay,RohrabachertriedunsuccessfullytopersuadetheHouseForeignAffairsCommitteetodropMagnitskyfromthenameofa
billextendingsanctionstohumanrightsabusersfromothernations.Duringthevote,hesuggestedthatBrowdermighthavebeen
involvedinthetaxfraudhimself."Iwouldliketosaythatit'spossible...butwedon'tknowenough,"hesaid.
BrowderaccusedRohrabacherofspreadingdisinformation.Magnitsky'sabuseinjailiswell-documentedtheJustice
DepartmentnamedBrowder'scompany"avictim,notaperpetrator"ofthefraud,accordingtocourtfilings.
"HeisknowinglyputtingoutanarrativeontheMagnitskycasewhichiscontradictedbyevidencefromRussiaandalargeamountof
analysisbyindependentbodies,includingtheU.S.government,"BrowdertoldtheAPofRohrabacher.
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:Re:Polish"patriots"(PrzemyskieBractwo)vsUkrainian"nazi"(OtVinta)[ED:SomeSoundAdviceFromPB
toAnt/F]
To:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Cc:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
AlthoughI'moffendedbytheseactionsbytheso-calledPolishPatriots,IviewthemasjustanotherbitofPutin's
overalleffortstodestabilizeUkrainianrelationswithanyandallitsfriendsandneighbors.It'stheoldKGBpracticeof
"pouringwaterintoeventhesmallestcracksinwinter".I'mcertainthesefolks,nomatterhowtheypresent
themselves,andnomatterwhattheiroriginalorigins,arenowfullyfunded,supportedandmanipulatedbyPutinfor
thepurposeofantagonizingPolishUkrainianrelationsandbreakingtheemergingandessentialalliancebetween
UkraineandPoland.WeneedtoformafrontlinealliancewithPolandagainstRussia.Putinknowsthis.Heistrying
tosowenmitywhereverhecantodisruptit.

We'renotgoingtomakeBanderaaheroinPoland,nomatterwhatwedo.NorcanPolandjustifyitsearlierrulein
WesternUkraine.Weneedtomoveon.Wecannotgetboggeddowninthisdebatefortheonlypossiblewinneris
Russia.Myfeelingisthatafteradifficulthistory,sincetheendofWWII,forthelastthreequartersofacentury,both
UkraineandPolandhavebeenandcontinuetobethreatenedmenacedandoccupiedbyRussiawhichisquite
happytoconsumethemoneatatime.Consumingthemtogether,intheformofarealmilitaryalliance,especiallyif
theyarejoinedbytheBalticStates,isnotlikelytohappenandPutinknowsthis.
AlthoughPolandisamemberofNATO,therearen'tenoughNATOtroopsorheavyequipmentinNATOtostopafull
Russianthrust,especiallyifitcomesfrombothRussiaandtheoccupiedterritoryofKaliningrad.Polandmustbynow
understandthatNATOisnotgoingtogonuclearagainstRussiatosavePoland.Anon-nuclearalliancewithUkraine
andtheBalticStatesisinrealityamorecredibledefenseagainstRussia.
ThedebateaboutBanderaisPutin'sdiversion.Wemustnotgetboggeddowninit.Weneedtomoveon,focusing
ontherealthreat--Russia.
OnJul3,2016,at10:01PM,AntonivFamilywrote:
RE:UkrainianmusicbandOtVintabannedfromPolandduetolocalultrasprotests
Polish"patriots"(PrzemyskieBractwo)vsUkrainian"nazi"(OtVinta)
PhotoofMr.Zhuravel'nexttoBanderamemorialpostedbyPrzemyskieBractwoasproofofhis
extremism:
http://pl-
pl.facebook.com/PrzemyskieBractwo/photos/a.212354862198471.35098.205452122888745/822499084517376/?
type=3
<13510918_822499084517376_8127915420853845268_n.jpg>
someother"disturbing"drawingsofMr.Zhuravel'postedonFB
http://pl-
pl.facebook.com/PrzemyskieBractwo/photos/pb.205452122888745.-2207520000.1467605156./821474824619802/?
type=3
From: KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>
Senttime: 07/01/201605:19:20PM
To: BobOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:EncouragingfeedbackonLowygig.
SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwardedmessage:
From:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
Date:30June201610:27:36amAEST
To:KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>
Cc:AnthonyBubalo<ABubalo@lowyinstitute.org>,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>
Subject:Re:EncouragingfeedbackonLowygig.
Ioncehadtoreadaloudanexampaper-toRobertDessaix-becausehecouldn'treadmyhandwriting.Itwasan
unpleasantexperience,althoughgiventhatthefinalmarkwasOK,presumablymoreformethanhim.I'msurethe
sameappliestoyourpodcast,soenoughoftheself-flagellation.ThefeedbackIgot,regardingbothofus,was
embarrassinglylaudatory.AndI'veneveransweredanythingthatIhaven'tthoughtafterwardswhatIshouldhave
said.
AndjudgingfromwhattheTASScorrespondentsaidtomeafterwards,hewon'tbetooharshonyou-althoughwho
knows.
Astohowyoushouldhaveansweredthegovernor,soundsOKtome.IlikedtheimplicationinwhatTitovsaid
aboutBrexit,thatin10yearstimetheEurasianUnionwillincludeEurope,linedupagainsttheAnglo-Saxons.
Orwell's1984indeed.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On30Jun2016,at07:48,KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>wrote:
Afterafriendtoldmehe'dlistenedtothepodcastofoursessionIdidtoo.Unwise--likerevisitingan
examinwhichyouthinkyou'vedonealright,onlytofind...
Stephensoundsconsidered,factualandcredible.TomyhorrorIfindthatIsoundlikeaRussianshock
jockonNTV,bombasticandgrandiloquent--'look,iwilltellyou(fools)howitis.'
Amostunedifyingexperience,shan'tdoitagain.
Anyway:itseemstomenowthattheproblemwiththeformatoftheinformalconversationisthatit
requirespeoplewhocanthinktheirfeetdeftly,orwho,likeFortescue,havethepresenceofmindtosay
'goodquestion,Idon'tknowtheanswer,butherearemythoughtsforwhatthey'reworth.'
ThepodcastrevealsthatIfailedsignallytoanswerthebestofthequestions,perhapsitwasfromthe
NSWGovernor,aboutwhatPutinwants,ultimately.TheanswerIshouldhavegivenisthatheisa
warriorandhewantstowin.HavinglosttheColdWar--apersonalhumiliationforaKGBofficer--he
isdeterminedtowintheColdPeace.Andwinitonhisterms.Hewantsanendtosanctions--because
theyhurtforMH17tobeforgottenforthenewbordershehasredrawnbyforcetobeacceptedand
recognisedTrumptobepresident(ontheassumptionthattheworsethebetter)NATOtobe
abolishedtheEUtocollapsetheUStobegonefromEurope,defeatedandhumiliatedanda
reconstitutedRussianempire,calleda'sphereofinfluence'and/orthe'EurasianUnion',Russia'sultimate
answerto'TheWest'.
Inotherwords,hewantsanewworldorder,asdesignedbyhim,whichrightstoinjusticesofhistory.
Justnowhepresumablyfeelsthatheisdoingprettywell,withalotofhelpfromwhathelikestocall,
mordantly,Russia's'partners'.
Ialsofailedtoqualifytheword'reasonable',applyingto'expectations',withthecrucial'whatPutin
wouldseeasreasonable'.ItrustthatthatslippleasedtheTASScorrespondent.
Nothinglikeawellformulatedquestiontoforceonetorecogniseanideationaldog'sbreakfast.As
Bulgakovsaiditsowell,"theproblem,gentlemen,isnottheplumbing:theproblemiswhat'sinpeople's
heads."Well,somepeople'sheads.LiketheBritswhovotedforBrexit.
SoIamdraftingaproperanswertothatquestionandwillinflictitonyouseassoonasIcan.I'll
importunethelong-sufferingSFtocommentonitandthen,ifyouwishAnthony,youcouldsendittothe
Governor.
IfyouweretoputitonyourblogSFmightnotgethisnextvisa--taintedbyassociation.
Kyle
SentfrommyiPad
On29Jun2016,at08:05,KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>wrote:
IfFortescuebuysanewsweater.
SentfrommyiPad
On29Jun2016,at7:14am,AnthonyBubalo
<ABubalo@lowyinstitute.org>wrote:
Weshouldtour...
SentfrommyiPhone
On29Jun2016,at7:02AM,KyleWilson
<krwilson66@icloud.com>wrote:
Fromafriendwhoattended.
SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwardedmessage:
From:John
<jmandryk@bigpond.net.au>
Date:28June20165:08:34pm
AEST
To:KyleWilson
<krwilson66@icloud.com>
Subject:Re:Reallyexcellent
YesmuchbetterthanOK.Alsomy
impressionwasitwasverywell
receivedbythe(motley)audience.
Andverywellattendedtoboot!
From:KyleWilson
Sent:Tuesday,28June,20164:57PM
To:JohnMandryk
Subject:Re:Reallyexcellent
ThanksComrade.I'mrelievedthatit
wentOKandmuchappreciatedyour
makingtheefforttocome.
SentfrommyiPhone
On28Jun2016,at2:08PM,John
Mandryk<jmandryk@bigpond.net.au>
wrote:
Welldone
Senttime: 07/05/201609:56:13AM
FW:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeontheEPCouncilandItsresult
Subject:
(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-...
Sent:Monday,July04,20161:12PM
Subject:Fwd:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeontheEP
CouncilandItsresult(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-...
Subject:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeonthe
EPCouncilandItsresult(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNewsSomeSound
AdvicefromPBtoAnt/FaboutaPL-UAconflictthatRUseemstobestirring
From:hunter@
Subject:TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehavior[ED:Asalways,atimelypiecefromJoshR...]
TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendous
behavior
ByJoshRogin
Opinions
July3at7:18PM
JoshRoginisaWashingtonPostGlobalOpinionscolumnist.
TheU.S.-Russiarelationshipistoobigtofail,butitsfailing.
TheObamaadministrationcameintoofficewithabigideaaboutthisrelationship:thatthesetwoworldpowersmustworktogetheronareasof
mutualinteresteveniftheystillworkedagainsteachotherwheretheirinterestsdiverged.Theconceptwassound,butasrelationshavedeteriorated
andRussiahastakenamoreantagonisticstance,theUnitedStateshasfailedtoadapt.
LastweeksrevelationthattheadministrationisproposingincreasedmilitarycooperationwithRussiainSyria,inexchangeforRussianagreementto
abidebythecease-fireithadalreadyagreedto,wasastarkexampleofhowtheadministrationstheoryabouthowtoworkwithRussiaisbeing
misappliedontheground.WashingtonisofferingMoscowbothareprievefromthepoliticalandmilitaryisolationitimposedaftertheinvasionof
UkraineandarewardfortakingunilateralmilitaryactiondesignedtoundermineU.S.policyinSyria.
TheWhiteHouseandtheStateDepartmentbelievethattheonlywaytomakeprogressinSyriaistoworkwithMoscow,evenifthatmeanssetting
theisolationefforttooneside.Thatmakessomesense,butonlyifRussiaactuallyhonorsitsagreementsinSyriaandmakesprogresstoward
resolvingtheUkrainecrisis.
Butneitherofthesethingsishappening.Ukrainesrecentlydepartedprimeminister,ArseniyYatsenyuk,toldmelastweekthatwhileRussiahas
successfullydistractedtheworldfromtheUkrainecrisis,theRussianmilitarycontinuesamedium-boilmilitarycampaigninviolationoftheMinsk
agreement.
EverysingledaytheykillUkrainiansoldiers,everysingledaythedeathtollisrising,everysingledaywevegotciviliancasualties.Thereisnocease-
fireontheground,hesaid.
ToYatsenyuk,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsstrategyisclear.RussiawillpretendtoworkwithWesternpowersandevenstrikedealswhenthe
dealsaresweetenough.Butbyselectivelyviolatingtheagreementswhilemanipulatingothergovernmentsandthemedia,Putinwillcontinuetomake
steadyprogresstowardhisanti-Western,anti-democraticobjectives.ForYatsenyuk,theressimplynowaytoworkconstructivelywiththecurrent
Kremlin.
IdontbelievethatyoucanagreeonanythingsubstantialwiththeRussianFederationbecausetheU.S.isanenemytotheRussianFederationin
theirview,hesaid.Theycanhavetalks,theycanhavedebates,theycanevenagreeonsomenon-existentialissues.Butthereisanexistential
difference.Thesearejusttwodifferentworlds.
TheUnitedStatescannotaffordtowriteofftheU.S.-Russiarelationship.Thereistruthtotheargumentthattheworldsmostpressingproblems,
includingIslamicextremism,cannotbesolvedwithoutsomeRussianinvolvement.ButWashingtoncannotignoreRussiasincreasinglyhorrendous
behavior.RussiasdangerousmilitarymaneuversnearU.S.shipsarenowregularoccurrences.RussianharassmentandintimidationofU.S.
diplomatsacrossEuropeisatanall-timehigh.Russiangovernmentcyberespionageandpropagandacampaignshaverunamok.
Thefactis,theyareengagedinanewglobalColdWaragainsttheU.S.,saidSamuelCharap,seniorfellowattheInternationalInstitutefor
StrategicStudies.Theresabsolutelynoquestionaboutthat.WehavethisfesteringwoundontherelationshipthatnobodyontheU.S.sideis
spendingmuchtimetryingtofix.
TheUnitedStateshascomplicatedrelationshipswithlotsofproblematiccountries.China,forexample,isinternallyrepressiveandexternally
aggressive,buttheresnothoughtofcuttingoffrelationswithBeijing.Similarly,thepolicyofisolatingRussiaaspunishmentforitsinvasionofUkraine
haslimits.Russiawasdeterminednottocavetosanctions,andiftherecentvoteintheFrenchsenateisanyindication,thesanctionsregimewillnot
lastforever.
Putinisaverysmart,sophisticatedpoliticalanimal,saidYatsenyuk.Hecanwaitandwaitforaquitelongandextensiveperiodoftime.Heknows
howtheWesternpowersact.
TheUnitedStatesmustestablishanewrelationshipwithRussiathatisintellectuallyhonestaboutMoscowsactionsandintentionswhilepreserving
whatevercooperationispossible.ThatmaymeanfindinganendgametotheUkrainesanctionsbeforetheycrumbleundertheirownweight.Butit
alsomeanspushingbackmoreagainstRussianprovocationsandraisingthecostforPutinwhenheactsoutonotherfronts.
DefenseSecretaryAshtonB.Carter,whointernallyopposedPresidentObamasnewSyriaproposal,saidlastweekthatifRussiawoulddothe
rightthinginSyriathatsanimportantconditionasinallcaseswithRussia,werewillingtoworkwiththem.
TheU.S.governmentneedstocomeupwithacredibleanswertothecorrespondingquestion:WhatisitwillingtodoifRussiacontinuestodothe
wrongthings?
Readmoreaboutthistopic:
From:OlegLitwinow<olitwin45@gmail.com>
Subject:Re:ThankstoRussia,UkrainiansSwellRanksofKyivPatriarchate[ED:PartofaLargerDiscussionGoingonintheCA
UOCCommunity]
To:valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>
Cc:MykolaJemetz<mjemetz@yahoo.ca>,24MORE
Val,etal.,
Wemustadmitthatallnon-imperialistOrthodoxshouldbehappythatthisSoborwassuchaspectacularRussianpropagandafailureduetothenon-
attendanceoftheRussianfactionandcool-handBart'srefusaltobudge.SomedelegatestotheSobormayhavebeenshort-changed(Serbs)but
Orthodoxywastherealwinner.TheROCraccoon-dogsyelped,butthecaravanmovedon.WecanonlyhopethatBartwillresisthistemptationto
negotiateforbetterdealsfromMoscowinexchangeforignoringtheattemptedkickinthefacehealmostgotfromPutin(hadhecancelledthe
Sobor).
Putin'sinvasiontransformedUkraine.Putin'sthreatsrejuvenatedNATO.Putin'sorderofnon-attendanceexposedanddemonstratedthefascist
natureoftheROC(farfromecumenical!)anditsimperialistRusskyMirphilosophy.
Therecanbenopeacefulco-existencewithPutin'schurch.TheROCmustbekickedoutorsplitoffmainstreamOrthodoxybecauseofitsinability
toexcludeitselffromcolludingwiththeforeignpolicyofMoscow,renderingitincompatiblewithanymoralethicbutthedevil's.LikePutin,the
ROCbelievesthatpromisesaremadetobebroken.TheROCbelievesthattherecanbenoecumenismandnocooperationwithinOrthodoxyuntil
aNaziMoscowbecomestheThirdRomeandimposesaRusskiMironallOrthodox.ThiswasthelessonthatwastaughtattheSobor.
TheSoborconfigurationandfailedattemptatdisruptiondemonstratedthattheROCandtherestofOrthodoxysubscribetomutuallyexclusive
systemsofvalue.SeeJuly3,2016Windowoneurasia"LudditesoftheWorldComingTogethertoSavePutin"byS.Ilchenko.
Subject:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNews
Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNews
'SurferRepublican'Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocatein
Congress
BYMARIADANILOVA,ASSOCIATEDPRESS
WhenseveralmembersofCongressaccusedVladimirPutin'sRussiaofhumanrightsabusesandaggression
towarditsneighbors,aveteranCaliforniacongressmanstoodvirtuallyaloneinurgingamorecautionarystance.
For69-year-oldRep.DanaRohrabacher,aself-described"surferRepublican,"thiswasn'tatotallyunexpectedposition:he'slong
beenvirtuallythelonepro-RussianvoiceonCapitolHill.
"Rightfromthebeginningwe'vehadthisincrediblehostility,"Rohrabacher,whohasdefendedPresidentVladimirPutinandurgeda
dialoguewiththeKremlin,lamentedatarecentcongressionalhearing.HeurgedbothRussiaandtheUnitedStatesatthetimeto
"takeadeepbreathandastepback."
Thispastspring,Rohrabacher'spositiondrewsupportfromDonaldTrump,thepresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnominee,who
advocatesgivingrelationswithMoscowanotherchance."Commonsensesaysthiscycleofhostilitymustend,"Trumpsaidina
speechinApril.
AformerspeechwriterforPresidentRonaldReagan,the14-termRohrabachertakesprideinhavingworkedtoweaken"ourmajor
globalenemyatthattime,theSovietUnion."AlargephotoinhisofficeshowshiminthehillsofAfghanistaninthe1980s,where,he
toldTheAssociatedPressinaninterview,helaunchedrocketsatSovietpositionsasavolunteerfighter.
Rohrabacher'sviewchangedwhentheSovietUnioncollapsedin1991,andRussiaemergedasadifferentcountry.Althoughhe
acknowledgesthatoppositionleadersfacerepressioninRussia,healsosaysthecountryallowsreligiousfreedomandisgenerally
moreopenthanitspredecessor.
Inthemid-1990s,RohrabachergotatasteofRussianpolitics,hesays,whenhewelcomedadelegationofyoungRussianpolitical
leaders,whichincludedPutin,whothenworkedforthemayorofSt.Petersburg.Afterafriendlyfootballmatch,thegroupwenttoa
nearbypubandstartedarguingoverwhethertheSovietUnionlosttheColdWar.Thedebateturnedintoanarm-wrestlingmatch
betweenPutinandRohrabacher,whichPutinwon.
"IendedupwithPutin,andhebeatmejustlikethat,"Rohrabachersaid,snappinghisfingers.
NowRohrabachersayshebelievespolicymakersinWashingtonmisunderstandRussiaandtreatitunfairly.Insteadoffightinganother
ColdWar,RussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldfocusondefeatingIslamicextremism."Weshouldnotbeinahostilerelationshipit's
nottothebenefitoftheirpeopleorourpeopletodothis,"RohrabachertoldTheAP.
JohnE.Herbst,aformerU.S.ambassadortoUkrainedisagrees,citingRussia'swarwithGeorgia,itsannexationofCrimeaandits
involvementintheseparatistconflictineasternUkraine.
"HehasbeenaconsistentvoiceinCongressforweakpoliciestowardsanaggressiveKremlin,"HerbstsaidofRohrabacher."Ihave
noreasontoquestionhisintegrityIhavelotsofreasontoquestionhisjudgment."
Thelawmaker'scritics,however,areunconvincedofhisintentions,sayingthatRohrabacherisn'tjustadvocatingforworldpeacebut
isinsteadpushinganagendathatbenefitstheRussiangovernment.
AmajorsorepointinU.S.-Russianrelationsisa2012lawimposingtravelbansandassetfreezeson39Russianofficialsdeemed
implicatedinthejailhousedeathofRussianwhistleblowerSergeiMagnitsky.MagnitskywasarrestedsoonafterheaccusedRussian
officialsofstealingsome$230millionofgovernmentmoneyinataxfraudschemetheRussianpresidentialcouncilonhumanrights
concludedhewasbeatenanddeniedmedicaltreatmentinjail.
MagnitskyworkedforBritish-AmericanfinancierWilliamBrowder,whoranRussia'slargestinvestmentfundbeforebeingexpelled
fromthecountryin2005.Browder,wholobbiedforthelawthatbecameknownastheMagnitskyAct,hastracedthemissingmoney
toaccountslinkedtoRussianofficialsinvariouscountriesandhassoughttofreezetheassets.ANewYorkcourtiscurrently
examiningthecaseofaRussian-ownedholdingcompanycalledPrevezon,whose$14millionworthofassetshavebeenfrozenbythe
U.S.governmentinconnectionwiththefraud.
TheMagnitskyActinfuriatedofficialsinMoscow,manyofwhomliketotravel,buypropertyandeducatetheirchildrenintheWest.
RussiaretaliatedbybanningAmericanfamiliesfromadoptingRussianorphans.
Thisspring,RohrabachermetwithRussianofficialswhileonatriptoMoscowandthensatdownwithaPrevezonrepresentativein
Washington.
InMay,RohrabachertriedunsuccessfullytopersuadetheHouseForeignAffairsCommitteetodropMagnitskyfromthenameofa
billextendingsanctionstohumanrightsabusersfromothernations.Duringthevote,hesuggestedthatBrowdermighthavebeen
involvedinthetaxfraudhimself."Iwouldliketosaythatit'spossible...butwedon'tknowenough,"hesaid.
BrowderaccusedRohrabacherofspreadingdisinformation.Magnitsky'sabuseinjailiswell-documentedtheJustice
DepartmentnamedBrowder'scompany"avictim,notaperpetrator"ofthefraud,accordingtocourtfilings.
"HeisknowinglyputtingoutanarrativeontheMagnitskycasewhichiscontradictedbyevidencefromRussiaandalargeamountof
analysisbyindependentbodies,includingtheU.S.government,"BrowdertoldtheAPofRohrabacher.
Subject:Re:Polish"patriots"(PrzemyskieBractwo)vsUkrainian"nazi"(OtVinta)[ED:SomeSoundAdviceFromPB
toAnt/F]
To:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Cc:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
AlthoughI'moffendedbytheseactionsbytheso-calledPolishPatriots,IviewthemasjustanotherbitofPutin's
overalleffortstodestabilizeUkrainianrelationswithanyandallitsfriendsandneighbors.It'stheoldKGBpracticeof
"pouringwaterintoeventhesmallestcracksinwinter".I'mcertainthesefolks,nomatterhowtheypresent
themselves,andnomatterwhattheiroriginalorigins,arenowfullyfunded,supportedandmanipulatedbyPutinfor
thepurposeofantagonizingPolishUkrainianrelationsandbreakingtheemergingandessentialalliancebetween
UkraineandPoland.WeneedtoformafrontlinealliancewithPolandagainstRussia.Putinknowsthis.Heistrying
tosowenmitywhereverhecantodisruptit.

We'renotgoingtomakeBanderaaheroinPoland,nomatterwhatwedo.NorcanPolandjustifyitsearlierrulein
WesternUkraine.Weneedtomoveon.Wecannotgetboggeddowninthisdebatefortheonlypossiblewinneris
Russia.Myfeelingisthatafteradifficulthistory,sincetheendofWWII,forthelastthreequartersofacentury,both
UkraineandPolandhavebeenandcontinuetobethreatenedmenacedandoccupiedbyRussiawhichisquite
happytoconsumethemoneatatime.Consumingthemtogether,intheformofarealmilitaryalliance,especiallyif
theyarejoinedbytheBalticStates,isnotlikelytohappenandPutinknowsthis.
AlthoughPolandisamemberofNATO,therearen'tenoughNATOtroopsorheavyequipmentinNATOtostopafull
Russianthrust,especiallyifitcomesfrombothRussiaandtheoccupiedterritoryofKaliningrad.Polandmustbynow
understandthatNATOisnotgoingtogonuclearagainstRussiatosavePoland.Anon-nuclearalliancewithUkraine
andtheBalticStatesisinrealityamorecredibledefenseagainstRussia.
ThedebateaboutBanderaisPutin'sdiversion.Wemustnotgetboggeddowninit.Weneedtomoveon,focusing
ontherealthreat--Russia.
OnJul3,2016,at10:01PM,AntonivFamilywrote:
RE:UkrainianmusicbandOtVintabannedfromPolandduetolocalultrasprotests
Polish"patriots"(PrzemyskieBractwo)vsUkrainian"nazi"(OtVinta)
PhotoofMr.Zhuravel'nexttoBanderamemorialpostedbyPrzemyskieBractwoasproofofhis
extremism:
http://pl-
pl.facebook.com/PrzemyskieBractwo/photos/a.212354862198471.35098.205452122888745/822499084517376/?
type=3
<13510918_822499084517376_8127915420853845268_n.jpg>
someother"disturbing"drawingsofMr.Zhuravel'postedonFB
http://pl-
pl.facebook.com/PrzemyskieBractwo/photos/pb.205452122888745.-2207520000.1467605156./821474824619802/?
type=3
From: AndersAslund<AAslund@ATLANTICCOUNCIL.ORG>
Senttime: 07/01/201612:14:54PM
Subject: EuropeNeedsMoreTransparency
DearFriends,
TheAmericanInteresthaspublishedmyargumentforgreattransparencyespeciallyinEuropeasamatterofnationalsecurity.
Withbestwishes,
Anders
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/06/30/europe-needs-more-transparency/
TheAmericanInterest
Publishedon:June30,2016
COMBATINGCORRUPTION
EuropeNeedsMoreTransparency
ANDERSSLUND
Combatingillicitfinancialflowsandrootingoutcorruptionaremattersof
nationalsecurity.
C orruptionisadangertonationalsecurity.Europeisexposedtoarisingsecuritythreatintheformof
dirtymoney,whetherfromRussia,Chinaorterrorists.Transparencyistheonlycure.Itmustnolonger
beacceptablethatpeopleinhighplacesreceivemoneyofunknownorigin,andthatthousandsofmulti-
milliondollarpropertiesareownedbyunknownpeople.
Europeknowshowtodealwithsuchchallenges.Inthe18thcentury,aristocratsruledSwedenallowed
themselvestobeboughtbyforeignpowers.TheBritishenvoyinStockholmwrotetoLondon,urging
HisMajestysGovernmenttoprovidehimwithlargerfundssothathewouldnolongerbeoutbidbyhis
RussianandFrenchcompetitorsinthatpervasivelycorruptcountry.
Swedenintroducedradicaltransparency,andithasstuck.In1766,thepartyofcommonerspromulgated
thefirstFreedomofInformationActintheworld.Allpublicinformationbecameopentoall,with
exceptionsmadeonlyfornationalsecurityandmedicalrecords.ThislawhassurvivedinSweden,aswell
asinFinland.In1771,Denmarkintroducedsimilarlegislation,whichhaspersistedtherethroughtoday.
Norway,whichwasapartofDenmarkatthetimethelawswerewritten,hasalsoseenthoselawssurvive.
Theimpactofthisfar-reachingtransparencyhasremainedextraordinary.In2015,theCorruption
PerceptionIndexofTransparencyInternationalrankedDenmark,Finland,andSwedenatthetopwithoil-
richNorwayinthefifthplace.
Absurdly,manyWesternnationsfavorthehidingofill-gottenwealth,undertheguiseofprivacy,over
transparency.ReportersWithoutBorders,whichrankspressfreedomintheworld,in2016putDenmark,
Finland,Norway,andSwedenamongthetoptenfreestcountries.Greecewas89thoutof180countries,
andItalywas77th,Francecamein45th,theUnitedStates41standtheUnitedKingdom38th.IntheUnited
KingdomandintheU.S.,mediafreedomsuffersfromfar-reachinglibellawswhichseverelyreducethe
freedomofspeech.Freedomofthepressisfurtherreducedinthesetwocountriesbytheextensiveuse
ofgagordersissuedbyjudgesprohibitingbothinformationandcommentsaboutcourtproceedings
frombeingmadepublic.(DonaldTrumphaspubliclycommittedhimselftolimitingU.S.pressfreedoms
further.)Asaconsequence,criticaljournalismofrichcrookshasbecomealmostimpossibleinthe
English-speakingworldunlesstheindividualsinquestionhavealreadybeensentencedtoprisonorhave
beensanctioned.
Attherecentanti-corruptionsummitinLondon,BritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameroncalledforthe
revelationofthebeneficiaryownersofthenearly100,000buildingsintheUnitedKingdomthatare
registeredinthenameofanonymousoffshorecompanies.IntheUnitedStates,thisnumberisseveral
timeslarger,withDelawaretakingtheleadastheforemostoff-shorehavenintheworldallowinglarge-
scaleanonymousownership.In2012,TheNewYorkTimesreportedthatasinglebuildinginWilmington
wasthelegaladdressofover285,000separatebusinesses.
In2014,theprivateFirstCzechRussiaBankprovidedtheFrenchextremerightNationalFrontwitha
loanof9million,withnoindicationastohowthisloanwassupposedtobepaidback.Partyleader
MarineLePenproceededtoaskfor27millionin2016.FinancingoftheUKsLeavecampaignhasalso
beenlessthantransparent.Europeneedstodefenditsdemocracybyprohibitingsuchdubiousformsof
financing,astheNorthEuropeanandBalticcountriesalreadyhavedone.Britain,France,andItalyneed
totightentheirpoliticalfinancingiftheyarenottobelostincorruption,whichmaycomefromRussiaor
elsewhere.
T hetimehascomefortheUnitedStatesandEuropeancountriestocatchupwithwhattheNordic
countriesdid250yearsago.Fromtimetotime,NordicrepresentativeshaveproposedthattheEuropean
UnionandindividualEUcountriesadoptsimilarlegislation,butsofartheyhaveencountered
overwhelmingresistance,especiallyfromFrance.Inthefaceofdirtymoneyfinancingterrorismand
subversiveactivitiesthisisnolongerpermissible.TheEUneedstogetitsacttogether.
Tobeginwith,theEUshouldadoptatransparencydirective,requiringallEUcountriestoadoptstrict
transparencylaws.BoththeEUandalltheEUcountriesshouldberequiredtohaveaproperdefinitionof
lobbyistsanddemandthatalllobbyistsberegistered.Non-EUlobbyistsshouldbesubjecttospecial
registrationasisthecaseintheUnitedStatesforrepresentativesofforeigninterests.
TheEuropeanParliamentandallEUcountriesparliamentsneedtoclarifywhichadditionalincomesare
permissibleandwhicharenot.Atpresent,membersoftheEuropeanParliamentareallowedtohave
consultingcontractswithprivatecompanies,andtheMEPinquestionisonlyrequiredtoregisterit.The
situationisfarworseinmanyEUcountries.Suchsideincomesshouldnotbeallowedfor
parliamentariansoranyotherpublicofficials.
Anonymousownershipshouldnotbeallowed.HerethebiggestproblemsareintheUnitedKingdomand
theUnitedStates.EvenUkrainehasmanagedtoforceallitsbankstorevealtheirbeneficiaryowners.All
Europeancountriesshoulddothesamebothtostoptaxevasionandtostrengthennationalsecurity.
Inresponsetotheglobalfinancialcrisisof2008,tightcontrolshaveevolvedwithinthebankingsystem.A
bankisnotallowedtoopenanaccountforanycustomerthatitsuspectsofviolatinglaws.However,one
blatantholepersistsintheknow-your-customerrules,namelyforRussianstatecorporations.No
companyhasbeenaccusedofmorecorruptionthanRussiasstategiantGazprom.Themurdered
RussianoppositionpoliticianBorisNemtsovmadeawell-documentedcasebackingsuchaccusations.
SuchinformationisusuallymorethansufficientforEuropeanbankstoprohibitacompanyfromopening
anaccountwiththem.
Inaword,theWestneedstostarttotakeitsnationalsecurityseriously.
AndersslundisaseniorfellowattheAtlanticCouncilinWashington.
Andersslund|SeniorFellow
103015thStreet,NW,12thFloor|Washington,DC20005
E:AAslund@AtlanticCouncil.org|Phone:(202)8642848
Followmeontwitter:@anders_aslund
www.facebook.com/AtlanticCouncil|@AtlanticCouncil|www.atlanticcouncil.org
Readmynewbook:"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt"
Senttime: 06/28/201609:53:23AM
FW:[LATENITERUN..NICMND&INTERESTINGMATERIALFROMTHECAUAORTHODOXCOMMUNITY][NICM]Fightingin
Subject: E/UAUAarmedforcesDiplomacyNATOUSforcesRUforcesRUsocietyEUFNDKSanctionsHybridwarGEBrexitRUforcesin
SY.[UA...
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,June27,20168:01PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:Fwd:[LATENITERUN..NICMND&INTERESTINGMATERIALFROMTHECAUAORTHODOXCOMMUNITY][NICM]Fightingin
E/UAUAarmedforcesDiplomacyNATOUSforcesRUforcesRUsocietyEUFNDKSanctionsHybridwarGEBrexitRUforces
inSY.[UA...
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Date:Mon,Jun27,2016at6:15PM
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineUkrainearmedforcesDiplomacyNATOUSforcesRussianforcesRussiansociety
EUFinlandDenmarkSanctionsHybridwarGeorgiaBrexitRussianforcesinSyria
To:
FightinginEasternUkraine
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkraine,basedoninformationreceivedasof19:30,26June2016
InKominternovetheSMMfoundthebodiesoftwoyoungboyskilledbypowerlinesmostprobablydownedbyshelling.In
DonetskregiontheSMMobservedmoreceasefireviolationsoneach25and26Junecomparedto24June.InLuhanskregion
theSMMrecordednoceasefireviolationson25June,andfeweron26Junecomparedto24June.
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/248801
UkrainianGovernmentReports55AttacksOverPrevious24Hours
http://www.interpretermag.com/day-860/
Ukrainearmedforces
Ukrainianwomenreceiverighttoserveincombatpositions
http://uatoday.tv/society/euromaidan-press-ukrainian-women-receive-right-to-serve-in-combat-positions-679880.html
Diplomacy
RussiaisharassingU.S.diplomatsalloverEurope
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/russia-is-harassing-us-diplomats-all-over-
europe/2016/06/26/968d1a5a-3bdf-11e6-84e8-1580c7db5275_story.html
NATO
NATOSecretaryGeneralappointsRoseGottemoellerasnextDeputySecretaryGeneral
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_132813.htm
AmericanArmsControlExpertAppointedDeputyHeadofNATOOverGOPOpposition
http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2016/06/27/american-arms-control-expert-appointed-deputy-head-of-nato-over-gop-opposition/
RussianAnxietyOverMontenegro'sNATOAccession
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-montenegro-nato-accession/27821224.html
USforces
ColdWar2.0:TheUSmilitaryisbeefingupitspresenceintheformerSovietBloc
http://news.vice.com/article/cold-war-20-the-us-military-is-beefing-up-its-presence-in-the-former-soviet-bloc
Russianforces

TheExpensivePretzelLogicOfDeterringRussiaByDenial
http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/the-expensive-pretzel-logic-of-deterring-russia-by-denial/
No,Russiaisnotpreparingforall-outwar
Thecrucialingredient,afterall,isintent.Inthatcontext,whileRussiaisclearlymountingamuchmoreaggressivechallengeto
westernwillandmorale,andindeedthecredibilityoftheinternationallegalandpoliticalorder,thisdoesnottranslateintoa
willingnesstostartawaritcouldnotpossiblywin.DeployingairpowerinSyriaagainstrebelslargelywithoutanymeaningfulanti-
aircapabilityisonething.TanglingwiththemostpowerfulmilitaryallianceintheworldonethathasoutspentRussiabyanorder
ofmagnitudeforthepasttwentyyearsissomethingelseentirely,andRussiassoldiers,atleast,understandthatverywell.
Furthermore,letsnotgetcarriedawaybythesmoothseizureofCrimeaorthedramaticparadesheldonRedSquare.Russias
armyismoreformidablenowthatatanypointsincetheSovietcollapse.However,reformisverymuchaworkinprogress,and
demographicandeconomicdeclinesalikewillmakefurthermodernisationincrementallyharder.
BeyondtherelativelyeliteforcesoftheSpetsnazcommandos,paratroopers,marinesandafewselectarmyunits,muchofthe
Russianmilitaryisstillispoorshape.SyriaandtheDonbasaresoakingupasignificantproportionoftheirmoreableand
professionaltroops,andneitherconflictlookslikeendingimminently.
Moscowcontinuestotalkupastorm,threateningunspecifiedactsagainstRomaniafordeployinganti-ballisticmissiles,announcing
thecreationofnewdivisionsandpromisingtomoderniseitsweapons.ButthisisanarmystilllargelydeployingSoviet-era
weapons,copingwithcutsinspendingcertainlygreaterthanthe5%admitted,andfranklyrunningoutofmen.
Russiaslatestsnapmobilisationdrills,afterall,reflectrecognitionoftheseproblemsasmuchasanythingelse.UnderPutin,strides
hadbeenmademovingthemilitaryfromaSoviet-stylemassarmy,withmanyunitslittlemorethanemptyshellswaitingtobefilled
withreservistsduringnationalmobilisation,toaleanerandmoreprofessionalstandingarmy.Bythebeginningofthisyear,
volunteersoutnumberedconscripts.
Thisisnobadthing.Conscriptsservingjustone-yeartermsacquireonlyrudimentaryskills,andcannotbeusedinmilitary
adventures.ThisiswhytheunitssenttotheDonbasareFrankensteinforces,adhocbattaliontacticalgroupscompanies
stitchedtogetherfromavarietyofparentunits.However,asdefenceministerSergeiShoigustartstalkingaboutcreatingnew
divisionsandarmies,iftheyaretoberealnewforces,thentheywillhavetodependmoreoncallingupreservists.
Andtherestheproblem.Russiasreservesystemisbroken.Formernationalservicemenlargelynevertaketherefreshertraining
meanttobeobligatory.Recordsarepatchyandoutofdate.Stocksofweaponsanduniformshavenotbeeninventoriedproperly,
sowhoknowshowmuchisnowunusableorstolen.Thesenewdrillsareasmuchasanythingelseanefforttofindoutjusthow
brokenthesystemisastodemonstrateanyterrifyingmilitarypower.
ButthatsnothowtheKremlinsellsthem,anditsnothowthewesttakesthem,soeveryoneknowinglyorunknowinglyconnives
atbuildingupMoscowsmartialmyth.ThisiswhytodaysRussianmilitaryshouldbeconsideredpartfightingforce,partmarketing
gimmick.

Lestthissoundtoomuchlikeacounseltocomplacency,therearefourparticularrisksassociatedwiththecurrentsituation,evenif
theyarenttherisksthatsoexciteRANDwar-gamersandwesterndefencemanufacturers.
ThefirstriskisthatthewestoratleastsomenationsandleadersinthewestarecowedandofferPutincompromisesthat
wouldonlyencouragefurtheradventurism.TheKremlinsintentis,afterall,thattheloudrattleofthesabresdistractsobservers
fromnoticingtherustandbluntnessontheweaponsthemselves.
NATOhasrespondedrobustlyasaninstitution,notleastbydeployingforcesintotheBaltics.Butnotallitsmembersarequiteso
comfortableandmaybemorewillingtotakeasofterlinewithMoscowoverUkraineinthehopethiswillratchetdownthe
perceivedthreat.
Thesecondriskisthatthewestbecomesobsessedwithamythicalmilitarythreatandthusdistractsitselffromtherealonesalready
inplaythosefromRussianespionageandinfluence,subterfugeandsubversion.
ReachingtheNATOgoalofspending2%ofnationalGDPonthemilitaryisallverywell(atpresentonlyfiveofthealliances28
membersdo:Greece,Estonia,Poland,theUKandUSA),butarguablyforsomebuildingupgreatercapacitiesincounter-
intelligence,financialmonitoring,evenmediaregulationwouldactuallybetterdefendthemagainstRussianchallenges.
Thethirddanger,ofcourse,isthenightmarescenario,thateithersideoverreactsormisreadsthesituation,seesadirectmilitary
threatwherenoneexists,andrespondsinkind.
ItisfarmorelikelythatRussiawillmakesuchablunder:Putinissubjecttonomeaningfulconstitutionalchecksandbalances,hasa
tasteforthecoupdethtre,seesahostileandconspiratorialworld,andisfedpoliticisedintelligencethatreinforceshisprejudices.
Nonetheless,itisnotimpossiblethatNATOcouldreacttoafeintinsuchawaythat,whenviewedthroughthedistortingglassof
theKremlinswindow,itlookstoPutinlikeagenuineattack.Infairness,behindthefuriousrhetoric,Moscowrespondedwith
surprisinglevel-headednessafterTurkeysshootingdownofaRussianbomber.Butwecanhardlyassumethatthismeansthereis
nopotentialforfutureflareups.
Fourthandfinalisthepossibilitythatthisconfrontationalsituationbecomesanendinitself.
PutinappearstohaveinternalisedaManichean,zero-sumsenseofhisrelationshipwiththewest,andthisdrivessomuchother
policy,fromcounter-sanctionstopoliticalrepression.Manyinthewestlikewiseembracewithnear-reliefareturntothe
comfortinglysimplisticdualismoftheus-and-themmindsetoftheColdWar.
EvenifRussianandNATOforcesneverdrawdowninanger,internationalpoliticscouldeasilyfinditselflockedintoaninverse
Clausewitzianroleaswarbyothermeans.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/mark-galeotti/no-russia-is-not-preparing-for-all-out-war
Russiansociety
TheBriefing:ANationOfSuspectsAndInformants
http://www.rferl.org/content/briefing-a-nation-of-suspects-and-informants/27822889.html
PutinsNewRival:Stalin
AstheKremlinstokesRussianfearsoftheWest,someyoungpeoplelongforwhattheythinktheyknowaboutthedictatorwho
sawthemthroughWorldWarII.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/27/putin-s-new-rival-stalin.html
Russiapasses'BigBrother'anti-terrorlaws
Lowerhousevotesinfavourofpackageofamendmentsthatcampaignerssaywillviolateprivacyandfreedom
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/26/russia-passes-big-brother-anti-terror-laws
EU
EUsecuritystrategytopushforcloserdefenceco-operation
DraftversionofglobalstrategyseenbytheFTcastsseriousdefenceintegrationasthenorm
http://next.ft.com/content/ec4d06aa-3c32-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0
Finland
VladimirPutinwillvisitFinlandonJuly1
OnJuly1,thePresidentwillvisitFinlandattheinvitationofPresidentofFinlandSauliNiinist.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52278
Denmark
Fodnote:NyekampflyforringerDanmarkskampflykapacitet
http://ing.dk/artikel/fodnote-nye-kampfly-forringer-danmarks-kampflykapacitet-185167
Sanctions
PutinsBankerWorkstheHill
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/06/24/putins-banker-works-the-hill/
Hybridwar
TheProblemWithHybridWarfare
manyintheBalticregionviewtheconceptasmerelyanothermechanismbywhichtheWestcanavoiddecisiveactionagainst
Russia,particularlybecauseNATOhasnotdeveloped,really,anoperationalconcepttoaddresshybridthreats.Theconcept,
accordingtothisEstonianofficial,allowsNATOtoavoidactionbecausearangeofactivitiesfromtheaggressiveuseof
disinformationbyMoscow,toeconomicpressure,tobriberyandthreats,touseoflocalstostirupprotestsbecome
convenientlycategorizedasbeingunderthethresholdofwar.Indeedasoneexpert,JamesSherr,hasobserved,inthehandsof
Russiahybridwarfarecouldcrippleastatebeforethatstateevenrealizestheconflicthadbegun,andyetitmanagestoslip
underNATOsthresholdofperceptionandreaction.Sherrisright.
http://warontherocks.com/2015/04/the-problem-with-hybrid-warfare/
Georgia
GeorgiaAnnouncesEndToMilitaryConscription
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79436
Brexit
BritainRattlesPostwarOrderandItsPlaceasPillarofStability
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/world/europe/britain-rattles-postwar-order-and-its-place-as-pillar-of-stability.html?smid=tw-
share&_r=0
[SentbyStefanForss]
WithBrexit,WashingtonsDirectLinetotheContinentSuddenlyFrays
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/world/europe/john-kerry-brexit-european-union.html?nytmobile=0&_r=0
[SentbyStefanForss]
EUsSalvationaPriority
ByAndersslund
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/eu-s-salvation-a-priority
AftertheBrexit,What'sNextforDefense?
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2016/06/24/after-brexit-whats-next-defense/86333926/
BrexitIsGoodNewsforRussiabutaHeadacheforNATO
BritainsexitfromtheEUwillundercutitsroleasAmericaskeyallyinEurope,leavingthecontinentmoredividedanddistracted
justthewayPutinlikesit.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/26/brexit-is-good-news-for-russia-but-a-headache-for-nato/
BrexitVoteComplicatesEuropesTerrorFight,SanctionsApproach
http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-vote-complicates-europes-terror-fight-sanctions-approach-1466961570
RussiaRevelsInBrexitVote
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-revels-in-brexit-vote/27817778.html
HowBritainTrickedItselfIntoLeavingEurope
TheadmissiononTVbyUKIPleaderNigelFaragethathedfudgedthecostsandbenefitsofleavingtheEUisjustthetipofthe
proverbialiceberg.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/24/how-britain-tricked-itself-into-leaving-europe.html
TheEnglishhaveplacedabombundertheIrishpeaceprocess
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/northern-irish-peace-sacrificed-english-nationalism
WhatwouldBrexitmeanforEUsanctionspolicy?
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_what_would_brexit_mean_for_eu_sanctions_policy6046
10yearsuntilaunitedEurasia:HowMoscowreactedtoBrexit
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/24/10-years-until-a-united-eurasia-how-moscow-reacted-to-
brexit/?tid=sm_tw
HowBrexitWillChangetheWorld
17topeconomists,foreignpolicygurusandhistorianslookfiveyearsintothefuture.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/brexit-change-europe-britain-us-politics-213990#ixzz4Cott3O7d
Brexitvotemetwithcelebrationsfromfar-rightgroupsacrossEurope
Right-wingGermanpoliticianBeatrixvonStorchsaysshe'criedforjoy'atthenewsoftheresult
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-referendum-latest-far-right-celebrations-news-marine-le-pen-
a7101371.html
RussianforcesinSyria
Russia'sUnhelpfulGameInSyria
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-unhelpful-game-in-syria/27820208.html
US-RussiaTensionsComplicateSyriaWar
http://www.voanews.com/content/us-russia-tensions-complicate-syria-war/3392595.html
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
telephone:+4722547772
skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
From:WasylSydorenko<wasyl.sydorenko@utoronto.ca>
Date:2016-06-2718:05GMT-04:00
Subject:Re:
To:OlegLitwinow<olitwin45@gmail.com>
Cc:valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,NataliaJemetz
<natalia.jemetz@gmail.com>,WRodak<WRODAK@bell.net>,IrenaWashchuk<irynawashchuk@gmail.com>,Mykola
Latyshko<myklat@bell.net>,<fidelsukhonis@gmail.com>,AlexRoslin<alexroslin10@gmail.com>,
LightOnTheDarkness<lahoda@ica.net>,"Dr.GeorgeLysyk"<drgeorgelysyk@sympatico.ca>,SametzRose
<sametzrose@rogers.com>
Olehetall!
Iseeyou'vereadthefinaldocumentsoftheCretanCouncil.
ThereisalsosomeinterestinginformationinthedocumentsonAutonomyandonDiasporas.ItseemsthattheEPhimselfisthe
victimofthisweirddancewherenomatterhowmanystepsyoutakeyou'restillstandinginthesamespot--sortoflikeAlice
throughtheLookingGlasswhereshe'srunningattopspeedwiththeRedQueenonlytodiscovershehasn'treallymoved.
ButIthinkthereissomeinformationtherethatcanbeusedtoouradvantagehereinCanada.ShortofgoingArmenianor
Anglican,wecancertainlyarguethattheUOCCisanAutonomousChurchinCanada(likethenon-RussianEstonianChurch).
TheonlyquestioniswhetherthatAutonomyshouldbegrantedbytheEPortheAntiochianChurch.Allthatisrequiredisthatour
MetropolitancommemoratethePatriarchoftheso-calledMotherChurchandthattheMotherChurchsendusourHolyOil.
Ideally,theUkrainianWorldCongressshouldsitdownwiththeChurchesandtelltheEPwhereitsatandkeeprepeatingituntilwe
getthedesiredresult.ThebasicproblemisthattheEPopposesglobalizationineveryaspectexceptone--theglobalizationof
GreekOrthodoxy.Ifhedoesn'trealizethatglobalizingOrthodoxymeansthatithastobede-Hellenized,thenhissuccessorwill(if
thereisasuccessor).TheGlobalizationofOrthodoxyrequiresthebreakdownoftradebarriers,i.e.canonicalterritories.Butit
doesn'tmeanthatsuddenlythereisbutonebrandofOrthodoxybeingmarketedacrossthesebarriers.Butglobalizationmeansthat
onlythemostuniversalideasaregoingtosurvive.AndthoseideashavenothingtodowithGreekorByzantinetraditions.
Universalideaswillcontinuetobeadaptedtothelocalneedsofpeople.WhentheCatholicChurchbegantoglobalizeinthe
1960s,oneofthefirstthingsitdidwasgetridoftheLatinlanguagesothatpeoplecouldifnecessarylocalizetheirchurches.It's
likeWindowsonyourcomputer.AtfirstitwasjustanEnglish-onlysystem.Whenitglobalized,onewasabletolocalizethe
workingenvironment.So,inUkraineyoucouldsetupaUkrainianinterfaceforworkinginWindows.Therewasaperiodoftime
whenMicrosoftcontinuedtoopposeallowingpeopleinNorthAmericafromlocalizingtheirWindowstosomethinglikeUkrainian.
Buteventuallytheyrealizedwhattrueglobalizationmeans--thatIshouldbeabletolocalizetheinterfaceglobally,i.e.whenI'min
Ukraine,orCanada,or...FortheEPandtheMPit'snotreallyaboutglobalizationbutstillverymuchaboutcolonization.Likein
Nigeria--they'rechantinginGreekwhilethepeoplearebeatingdrums,blowingtrumpetsandjumpingupanddown.Onehundred
yearsfromnowtheseNigerianswillbeclamoringfortheirownautocephalousChurchandthentherewillbeproblemsofthe
NigerianDiasporashouldclimatechangeforcepeopletomoveoutoftheequatorialzones.
Hereisa2013articlefromtheHuffingtonPostonglobalizationandreligion.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/margaret-placentra-johhston/globalization-vs-traditional-religion_b_2170609.html
Wasyl
On6/27/201616:30,OlegLitwinowwrote:
DearWasyl,etal.,
Re:Churchbehavinginduplicitousmannerisnotmorallyright.
You(we)areinabindherebetweenpolitics,moralityandtime.Politicsandmoralitysometimesintersect,sometimesdiverge.One
groupofparliamentarianssupports"patriotic"autocephaly,theother(39"MP"mpsarefora"colonialist"autocephaly,sopolitics
cannotbeexpectedtoalwaysdothe"rightthing".
Todaywemustwait.CouncilResolutionstatestheparticipantssupportpeaceinAfrica,andalso(bytheway)inUkraine,andthis
issupposedtobegood(sinceautocephalywasofftheagendaanyway)andallwecouldhaveexpectedfromthisCouncilatthis
time.Suchemptyplatitudesarepartofthetwostepsforwardandoneback,andconclusionsandresolutionsthatareimmoral
todaybecomethebasisofhopeforamoralfuture.
IfKPgetscanonicityandweare"cutoff"fromUkraineinCanada,thenwewillbewherewearerightnow,sowhyworryabout
futureduplicity(hopegonebad)?Youcan'tbemore(abetter)OrthodoxthanBart.
Soyes,itisonethingtoplanforamoraloutcomeintothefutureandanother(evenperhapsimmoral)tovoiceitorcontemplate
onit(ifitthenbecomespolitics).Therewillalwaysbehopeforthefuturesohopecannotbecutoffinadvanceforthesakeof
moralityorunjustifiedfeelingsofguilt.Sowemuststicktothepredeterminedagenda:-)
OnatemporarybasisfortheUOCC,theArmenian/Anglicanscenarioopensupandmaybeevenapossible1918Antiochan
scenario(justaskWinnipegforupdateonthat).
SentfrommyiPad
OnJun27,2016,at6:24AM,valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>wrote:
Walter,Postingtoyoutwoarticles:Myzykarticle"Znushchanijianadistorijejiu"mightbeofinteresttoalotof
people.SecondarticlehastodowithTheCounciloftheOrthodoxesinCrete.
Bothwillleadtosignificantconsequencestomillions-politicallyandspiritually.Youmightconsiderpostingthem
bothtoyourintellectuals.
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------
:"NataliaJemetz"<natalia.jemetz@gmail.com>
:242016,23:37:00
From:NataliaJemetz<natalia.jemetz@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at8:37AM
Subject:Re:CanonicityandDiasporas
To:WasylSydorenko<wasyl.sydorenko@utoronto.ca>
OnFri,Jun24,2016at8:32AM,NataliaJemetz<natalia.jemetz@gmail.com>
wrote:
,
.?,
,.
,.
-
.,
-.
OnFri,Jun24,2016at2:35AM,<wasyl.sydorenko@utoronto.ca>wrote:
Severalpeoplewrotebacktomeconfusedoverthisparagraph:
"IreallyseenoreasonwhytheKyivanPatriarchateshoulddesiretheEP's
omophor.TheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchshouldbeliketheArmenianorthe
Anglican,itsownChurch.AndtheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchofCanada
shouldbeitsownChurchtoo,unencumberedbytheGreekWorld.Otherwise
theKPwouldbeplayingagameofdoublestandards,likemanyotherlocal
autocephalousChurchesdo.Theywouldthinkonething,sayanother,anddo
somethingcompletelydifferent--"IdisagreewiththeEP,"but"I'llsign
thedocumentanyway,"because"IknowIwillcontinuetosupportmy
Diaspora."
Tobegin,Ihavetoremindallofyouofseveralkeyfactors.
1)WhenPatriarchFilaretwasinToronto(Oakville)afewyearsagohewarnedtheaudiencethat
canonicalrecognitionofKyivwasnotgoingtohelptheDiasporabecausewithcanonicalrecognition
Kyivwouldbecomelockedintoitsowncanonicalterritory,whichwouldbeUkraine--andnotextend
toothercountrieswheretheUkrainianDiasporaisfound.Thiswassaidinreferencetothe2009
ChambesyAccord,whichbasicallygavetheEcumenicalPatriarchexclusivecontroloverallthe
non-traditionally-Orthodoxterritoriesintheworld,i.e.WesternEurope,the
NewWorldandOceania.Therefore,ifKyivwantedtohaveitsbishopsadministereparchiesinCanada,
thiswouldbeuncanonicalbecauseKyivwouldbecompetingwithConstanstinople.VladykaYurij
himselfsaidatthe2010SoborinWinnipegthatCanadaisnotourterritory,thereforewecannotbe
autocephalousorevenaChurchbecausewedonothaveexclusiverights.But,howcanwehave
exclusiverightsifCanadaisamulticultural,multi-religious,anddemocraticcountry?
2)AttheSymposiumofUkrainianOrthodoxyafewyearslater
BishopEvstraty(Zoria)oftheKyivanPatriarchatesaidthesamething.CanonicalrecognitionofKyiv
wouldbegeographicallylimiting.TheKPcanonicalterritorywouldbeequaltothatofUkrainebut
wouldnot(couldnot)extendtoothercountrieswhereotherChurcheshavetheircanonicalterritories.
SinceCanadaisbeingclaimedbytheEP,itwouldbeuncanonicaltointerferebyassuming
administrativecontrolovertheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchofCanada.Inotherwords,themoment
someoneemigratesfromUkraine,theybecomedisenfranchisedfromtheKPChurch.Iftheysettlein
Bulgaria,theymustbecomemembersoftheBulgarianChurch.IftheysettleinSerbia,theymust
becomemembersoftheSerbianChurch.ButiftheysettleinCanada,theymustbecomemembersof
theChurchofConstantinoplebecausetheDiasporabelongstotheEP.
3)IaskedBishopEvstratywhytheKPistryingtobesouber-canonicalevenbeforetheyactuallyhave
receivedcanonicalrecognition.Isthisjustposturing(genuflecting)beforetheEPtoobtainhis
"merciful"blessingandthelong-awaited-forcanonicalstatus?WouldtheKP
ignoretheserestrictionslikealltheotherLocal(National)ChurchesdoaftertheKPgetsitscanonical
status?BishopEvstratydidnotreply.Theanserewouldhavebeentoopolitically(diplomatically)
sensitive.
4)Nevertheless,itisevidentthatalthoughthevariousautocephalousChurchessignedthe2009
ChambesyAccord,atleasthereinNorthAmericatheprotocolsoftheaccordarenotbeingfollowed.
Infact,ataPan-Orthodoxgatheringin2014inClevelandthebishopsoftheAmericanAssemblyof
CanonicalOrthodoxBishopsadmittedthattheMotherChurcheswerenotlettinggooftheirparishes
andtransferringthemovertotheGreekOrthodoxChurchofAmerica(whichisrunbytheEP).
5)So,Iask,whydidtheMotherChurchesagreetosignthe2009
ChambesyAccordiftherewasnodesireofwilltoadheretoit?Isn'tthistwo-facedhypocrisy?Infact,
theRussianswereevenplanningtocelebratethe220thanniversaryoftheir
missioninNorthAmericain2014.Putin'sinvasionofUkrainedisruptedthosecelebrations.But
1794isamuchearlierdateforclaimingtheNewWorldthan1922whentheEPassumedcontrolover
theGreekDiasporainNorthAmerica.Meanwhile,theRomanianChurch,althoughcanonical,refusesto
limititselfgeographically.Itiswhereitsfaithfulare.TheBulgariansarenevergoingtosubmittotheEP.
TheirMinistryofForeignAffairsisworkingclosingwiththeDiaspora
toensurethattheircompatriotshavethecareoftheBulgarianChurchwhereverBulgarianslive.
Yes,canonicityisimportantfortheKPinUkraine.ButtheabilityoftheKPtolookaftertheUkrainian
Diasporaisalsoimportant.WhenIhearKPhierarchswarningtheDiasporathattheirpowerswillbe
limitedoncetheybecomecanonical,Iwonderifbecomingcanonical(apartofGreekOrthodoxy)isthe
wisestroutetotake.AndIfinditdistastefultoadvisetheKP
hierarchstosignanyprotocolsandbreakthemthemomenttheyaresigned.Thatissomethingthatthe
Russiansdo.However,thisisalsosomethingtheotherMotherChurchesaredoing.Ijustwishthatthe
EPwouldrealize(Ithinkhedoes)--no,admitthatstealingtheDiasporasofotherChurchesisnotgoing
tohelphimbuildglobalOrthodoxy.
Finally,IfinditcuriousthatIhavebeenexplainingthisoverandoverandoveragainforseveralyears
nowandpeoplestillkeepaskingmethesamequestionsthatrequirethesameanswers.Isthisacaseof
disbelief?Ifso,letmesummarizethisinafewshortpoints.
1)BothPatriarchFilaretandBishopEvstratyhaveresignedthemselvestothefactthatcanonicitywill
limittheKPtothebordersofUkraine.TheDiasporawillbeofflimits
becausetheDiasporabelongstotheEP.
2)SoifcanonicitysolvestheproblemoftheKPinUkraine,itdoesn'tsolvetheproblemoftheUOCC
inCanada.ThissamecanonicitybecauseofChambesydivides(separates)theUkrainianDiasporafrom
itsMotherChurch--Kyiv.
3)Therearewaysaroundthis--signingtheaccordsbutthenproceedingtoignorethem(likeallthe
otherChurchesaredoing).AndmaybethisiswhatwillhappeniftheKPsigns,butIdonotfeelmorally
righttosuggestaChurchbehaveinsuchaduplicitousmanner.
Wasyl
Senttime: 06/28/201609:11:57AM
FW:"USambassadortoRussia[JohnTEFFT]:NATO'mosteffectivedefensivealliance'inhistory,"
Subject:
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27824043.html
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,June28,20169:11AM
Subject:"USambassadortoRussia[JohnTEFFT]:NATO'mosteffectivedefensivealliance'inhistory,"
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27824043.html
HiscommentscomeaheadoftheJuly89summitinWarsawwhereNATOleadersareexpectedto
endorseasubstantialincreaseinforcesinPolandandtheBalticstates
And:LITHUANIA[ForeignMinisterLinkevicius]warnsabouteasingantiRussianSANCTIONSafter
Brexit,themoscowtimes.com,6/28
And:RussiasaysUSwarship[USSGRAVELY]inNEARMISSwithRussianvessel[Russiannavyfrigate
YaroslavMudry]inMediterranean,reuters.com,6/28
And:UNIAN:PoroshenkoexpectspositivesanctionsagainstRussiaatEUsummit[onJune2829],
kyivpost.com,6/28
And:LeadinginvestigativejournalistOlegKASHIN,Anew1937[Stalinstylegreatpurge]:whydid
theyarrest[Governor]NikitaBELYKH?http://slon.ru/posts/70007
And:KonstantinREMCHUKOV,PutinhassentaSIGNALtothesystemicopposition,indicatingwho
couldbeworsethanatraitordetailedinterviewontheupcomingDumaelections,thearrestof
NikitaBelykhandmuchmore:ng.ru,6/28[originalpostedonEkhoMoskvywebsite]
And:PutindentsTURKISHhopesforquickrestorationofrelations,reuters.com,6/28
And:HillaryCLINTONisinterviewedbyEkhoMoskvy:http://echo.msk.ru/blog/echomsk/1792040
echo/
And:Bizarre:Trumplawyer[MichaelCOHEN]accusesClintonofMURDERintweet,
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trumplawyerclintonmurder224876
DonaldTrumpslawyeraccusedHillaryClintonofmurderinganambassadorandsellingURANIUM
toRUSSIAthroughherfalsecharity
From: teagueeliza@aol.com
Senttime: 06/28/201603:38:09AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: Fwd:
Attachments: Vsjakremlevskayarat_NEW.PDF
DearBob
IreadSamGreene'spiece(bychance,wesatnexttoeachotheronthetrainyesterday).Ihopeheisnotright.Iamnotconvincedby
hisargumentthatthosewhovoted"Leave"seenobetterfuture.Ithink,onthecontrary,thattheymistakenlythink(orthought)thereis
abetterfutureoutsidetheEU.ButIamtoodepressedfollowingtheresultsofthereferendumtothinkstraightatpresent.
Incaseyouhavenotseentheattachedbook,itwashighlyrecommendedbyFionaHilltoaformercolleagueofmine,MarkSmith,who
wasinWashingtonlastweekbutwhosadlytellsmehedidnotmeetyouandyourcolleagues.
Iwasmostimpressedbythisarticlehttp://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/unitedstates/20160613/caseoffshorebalancing
IwonderwhetherthiswouldbethebasisofaDonaldTrumpforeignpolicy?
Elizabeth
Senttime: 06/28/201601:48:57PM
Subject: InternetNotes28June2016
Attachments: IN28June16.docx
InternetNotes28June2016
NotesonNotes(PutinontheDumaelections)
MedvedevendorsesKadyrov,Volodin,PoklonskayafortheDuma
MoreonBelykh(DeprivingliberalsofthecorruptiontrumpcardBabchenko:Nocollaborationwiththeregime
Kashin:Theregimeisrestructuring)
ErdoganapologizesfordownedRussianplane
SpainarrestssixRussiansinRussianMafiamoneylaunderingcase
SoloveyonRussiasviewofBrexit(PeskovonBrexit)
NotesonNotes(PutinontheDumaelections)
IincludedsomeofPutinsremarkstotheUnitedRussiaCongressregardingtheDumaelectionsinyesterdaysnotes.Hereisthe
fulltextinRussian:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52279Kremlin.rusEnglishversionofthespeech:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52279
MedvedevendorsesKadyrov,Volodin,PoklonskayafortheDuma
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/medvedev-wants-kadyrov-volodin-and-poklonskaya-for-russian-state-
duma/573590.html
RussianPrimeMinisterandchairmanoftheUnitedRussiarulingpartyDmitryMedvedevhasrecommendedthatfirstdeputyheadofthe
presidentialadministrationVyacheslavVolodinbereturnedtotheStateDuma,theRIANovostinewsagencyreportedMonday.
MedvedevalsorecommendedChechenleaderRamzanKadyrov,CrimeanprosecutorNatalyaPoklonskaya,CrimeanheadSergei
Aksyonovandseveralothergovernorsfortheparty'slistofcandidatesintheStateDumaelections.
ThisdecisionwasapprovedatapartymeetingonMonday.
VyacheslavVolodinhasheldthepositionoffirstdeputyheadofthepresidentialadministrationsince2011.Between1999and2010he
wasaStateDumadeputyandwaslaterappointeddeputyPrimeMinister.Volodinwillbetheonlytopofficialonthelistofcandidates,
apartfromMedvedev.
Hewillruninthe15thDistrict,whichincludesRussia'sVolgograd,Penza,SaratovandTambovregions.
Duringthe2011elections,ninetopofficialsheadedUnitedRussiaregionalelectorallists,butthismovewasunsuccessfulfortheparty,
asitdidpoorlyatthepolls,RBCreportedcitinganunidentifiedsourceinUnitedRussia.
Meanwhile,anunidentifiedsourceclosetothepresidentialadministrationtoldtheTASSnewsagencythatVolodinwillnottakeupthe
positionofStateDumadeputyifheiselected.
TheparliamentaryelectionsinRussiaarescheduledforSept.18.Thedeputieswillbeelectedunderthemixedelectoralsystem225
throughpartylistsandanother225throughsingle-memberdistricts.
MoreonBelykh(DeprivingliberalsofthecorruptiontrumpcardBabchenko:Nocollaborationwiththeregime
Kashin:Theregimeisrestructuring)
Seeyesterdaysnotes
NezavisimayaGazeta(http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-06-28/2_red.html)notesthatgovernorshavebeenarrestedanddismissed
beforegovernorsfromtheUnitedRussiapartybutBelykhscaseisdifferent.HewasassociatedwiththeUnionofRight
Forces,aliberalpartythatjoinedincriticizingvlast,especiallyforcorruption.Nowoneoftheirownisintroubleforcorruption,
deprivingtheliberalsofthattrumpcard.Theiraccusationswilllosetheirsharpness.PutinhadalreadyundercutBelykhandthe
liberalsbackin2012,whenhesaidthattheliberalshadsomepeopleinofficialpositionslikeBelykhinKirovOblastandtheir
workwasnotbetterthanothers:
.
,,.,
,?
,.
ButBelykhsarrestcouldalsoradicalizecriticsoftheregimeandundercutthosewhohavepromotedworkingwithinthesystem
Belykhwasloyaltotheregime,butwasarrested(withlotsofquestionssurroundingthechargesandthearrest)nonetheless.Some
willsaythatworkingwithinthesystemdoesnogood,weakeningtheinfluenceofmoremoderatevoices.Thatleavesonlywaiting
forthesystemscollapseorrevolutionBelykhsarrestwillfrightenallliberalswhohavebeenloyalandworkedinthesystem
ArkadiyBabchenko(http://echo.msk.ru/blog/spektr_press/1791460-echo/),whoremembersalltoowelltheforcetheregimehas
usedagainstitsopponentsinthepast,saysheisnosupporterofcollaborationwiththesystem.TheBelykhcaseraiseslotsof
questionsaboutthecharges:itseemsawfullystrange,forexample,thatagovernorcouldbeboughtoffforarelativelymodestsum
orthathewouldpickupcashinthemiddleofaMoscowrestauranttherearestilloffshoresarentthere?Butthemainquestions
arenotaboutwhetherBelykhwassetupBabchenkothinkssomeotherthingsaremoreimportant.Youeitherbecomepartof
thesystemorthesystemwilldestroyyou.Noonehasbeenabletochangethesystemfromwithin.Youcanstaywithinthesystem
andtakethebribesorresistandbedestroyed.Thosearetherulesofthegame.Nothingbutrevolutionanddestroyingthesystem
toitsfoundationsremainsNavalniyisfortunatethathewasnotelectedMoscowmayorKhodorkovskiyspeoplewhowantto
takepartintheDumaelectionsIwontvoteforthem.Itwillallendwithmoredirtyprovocations.ThesamegoesforPARNAS
andYabloko.ImnotcallingforMaydan.Thetimeforthathaspassed.Nobourgeois-democraticrevolutionwilltakeplacein
Russia.TherewillbesomethingelseIndefendingitselffromdemocraticrevolution,vlastwillinevitablybecometotalitarian
Yarovayasanti-terrorist/anti-extremistlawsarejustthefirstthatwilllegalizeterror(Seethe22and23Junenotes).Belykhs
arrestisjustonesmallepisodealongtheway
AsPolitcom.runotes,Belykhhasbeendistancinghimselffromtheoppositionforsometime:http://politcom.ru/print.php?
id=21229Ata2015conferencesponsoredbyKudrinsAll-RussianCivicForum,Belykhtoldactiviststostoptheirabstract
criticismofvlastandhealsotoldthemthathedoubtedtheyrepresentedarealcivilsocietyThePolitcom.rupiecealsopresents
threeversionsoftheBelykharrest:Versiya#1:Thearrestwaspolitical,connectedwiththeupcomingelectionsvlastislooking
forliberalstoblameforeconomicproblems.BothBelykhandtherecentlyarrestedYevgeniyDod(seethe23,24,and27June
notes)wereassociatedwithAnatolyChubaysVersiya#2:CompetitionbetweentheInvestigativeCommittee(SK)andthe
Prosecutorsoffice(BelykhsbrotherwasmadeheadoftheProsecutorsofficeintheVolgaFederalOkrugin2015)Vesiya#3:
BelykhsarrestwasawarningtoothergovernorshisandthearrestsofSakhalinOblastGovernorKhoroshavinandKomis
VyacheslavGayzer(See,forinstance,the9December2015notes).Thearrestwasastrongblowtopro-vlastliberals.TheSK
andtheFSBworkingtogetherwereshowingwhattheycandointakingonprominentmembersoftheregionalelite
Kashinsaysthattheregimeisrestructuringitselftheineffectivenessofadministration,includinggovernors,hastobedealtwith
andtheonlyinstrumentvlasthasisfear.Onemoresteptowardtotalitarianism.Theoldmeasuresofloyaltyandinformal
agreementswontbegoodenoughtoprotectyou:http://slon.ru/posts/70007
Comment:IfyournameisRoldugin,Kovalchuk,orRotenberg,theyprobablywillbegoodenough.AsIexplainedin
the2Junenotes,thecrisisandPutinsstateofmindarenarrowingthecirclehefeelshecanrelyonandthecircleof
thosewhocanexpecttobeimmunefromproblems.ThestorywasonZolotovsvictorymycommentsfollow:
[http://politcom.ru/21134.html
AlekseyMakarkinsaysthatMurovsresignationisavictoryforZolotov(theywereonceapparatusallies,butZolotovhashisownclientele
thesedays)ZolotovwasabletoreplacehimwithhismanDmitriyKochnev,ZolotovslongtimedeputyatthePresidentialSecurityServicewho
sincelastyearhasheadedthatservice.Systemically,weseecadresfromthatservicebeingplacedinimportantpostsGeneralKolpakovashead
ofthePresidentialAffairsAdministration,GeneralMironovisnowheadoftheMVDseconomiccrimesunit(MakarkinseesDyuminmovingfrom
deputydefenseministertoTulagovernorassomethingofademotionsoheisanexceptiontotherule).
Thereisatendencytoachangingofthegenerationalguardinthehigherechelonsofvlast.Intheearly2000s,whenPutinbecamepresident,he
broughtwithhimateamofpeopleclosetohim,peoplehehadworkedwithintheKGBorinSt.Petersburg.Foralongtime,Putindidnotmakeany
changesinhiscircleheisamanstableinhissympathiesaswellashisantipathies.Iftherewasachange,thenitwasalateralmove,or
accompaniedbysomeformofcompensation.Butsomewheredowntheline,PutinbegantodoubttheeffectivenessofthesepeopleYakunins
departurefromRussianRailwayswasanindicator.AndPutinsawthataresignationinhisclosecirclewasnotacatastrophe.Thesystemcontinued
tofunctionnormally.SowegotadominoeffectViktorIvanovlosthisFSKNpost,GryzlovhisseatasapermanentSecurityCouncilmember.Now
itsMurovsturn.
Comment:OnYakunin,Iwonderedwhetherhisdeparturehesubsequentlywarnedotherstheywerenotsafehadsomethingtodowitha)the
crisis,andtheineffectivenessofpeoplewhokeptcomingbackagainandagainaskingformoremoney,moresubsidies.Putinwasdisturbedby
thecrisisandthesensethathewasnotbeingrepaidwiththedegreeofsteadfastnessandloyaltyhemighthaveexpectedandb)Putinsownview
ofhimselfasamanofdestiny,onethatwasevident,Ithink,beforetheUkrainecrisis,asensethathewasamanapart,withaspecialmission.
Thatwouldtendtomakeiteasiertopartwithfriendshemightseeaspresentingroadblockstofulfillinghisdestiny.Inalowtrustenvironment
likethatinRussia,suchmovesmightcauserumblingsamongthoseinhiscirclewhoexpectapremiumfrombeingclosetothebodyaswell
asdrawingthecircleofthosemosttrustedevencloser.LikeZolotov.
Makarkindoesntliketheclandescriptionofgroupswithinvlasthesaysthatvlastismoreatomized,withRussianpoliticscomprisedofa
fewdozenmajorplayersandtheirclienteleswhoformsituationalallianceswithoneanother,andclashaswell,withthepresidentpresiding
overthesystemsarbitrationwhichsoundsprettymuchlikemyverticalaxisoftheclansystem(thejustbusinessaxis),soIthinkhes
makingadistinctionwithoutadifference.Onthehorizontalaxisareonesclosestfriendsandrelatives,thepeopleonecountsoninapinchI
thinkwehaveanideaofwhosomeofthosepeopleareinPutinscircleZolotov,Raldugin,theRotenbergs,andtheKovalchuksbeingexamples.
MakarkinissayingthatthecadrereservesPutinisdrawingonarenotsomuchfromthebroaderFSOasfromitsPresidentialSecurityService
branch.]
NovayaGazetacarriedanitemontheBelykhcase:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73612.html
AclarificationonLaritskiy(Seeyesterdaysnotes).Heistheowneroftheskienterprisementionedasoneofthetwothatpaid
bribestoBelykhandistheformerownerofthemanagementcompanythatwasonceunderthecontrolofKirovlesLaritskiyis
currentlyinjailandthecaseagainsthim,accordingtoNovayassources,grewoutoftheinvestigationofNavalniyandtheKirovles
affairTheoperationagainstBelykhwasheadedbyMajorGeneralOlegFeoktistov,deputyheadofFSBInternalSecurity
(USB)(Comment:Oursourcestellusthathiscurrentsuperior,Korolev,willtakeoveratFSBEconomicSecurity
(SEB)andFeoktistovwillheadtheUSB.Feoktistovhasturnedupinthenotespreviouslyinthematerialonthe
GUEBiPKaffair.Seethenotesfrom10and14June).
ErdoganapologizesfordownedRussianplane
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/turkish-president-apologizes-for-downing-russian-bomber/573600.html
TurkishPresidentRecepErdoganhasapologizedforthedowningofaRussianSu-24bomberinNovemberlastyear,theKremlinsaidinastatement
Monday.
Accordingtothestatement,PresidentVladimirPutinreceivedaletterfromErdoganinwhichtheTurkishpresidentexpressedhiswillingnessto
improverelationsbetweenthetwocountriesandapologizedforthedowningofthebomber.
IwouldlikeonceagaintoexpressmysympathyanddeepestcondolencestothefamilyofthedeceasedRussianpilotandtosaysorry.Ishare
theirpainwithallmyheart,Erdoganwasquotedassayinginthestatement.
WeperceivethefamilyoftheRussianpilotasaTurkishfamily.Wearereadytotakeanyinitiativeinordertorelievethepainandthedamagewe
inflicted,Erdoganadded.
TheTurkishairforcedownedaRussianSu-24bomberjetovertheTurkish-SyrianborderonNov.24,2015,claimingthatitviolatedTurkishairspace.
Russiadeniedtheclaimsandcalledtheincidentastabinthebackfromtheaccomplicesofterrorists.
ThiswasfollowedbyapackageofeconomicsanctionsimposedonTurkeybyMoscow.
Lastmonth,theTurkishpresidentsaidthathewantedtoimprovetieswithRussiabutdidn'tknowhow.Moscowrepeatedlysaidthatbetter
relationscouldonlybeachievedifTurkeyapologizedfortheincidentbutAnkararefusedtodoitatthattime.
AfterErdogansapology,TurkishpresidentialspokesmanIbrahimKalinsaidtheRussianandTurkishauthoritieshadagreedtotakewithoutdelay
allnecessarymeasuresaimedattheimprovementoftiesbetweenthetwocountries,theReutersnewsagencyreported.
TherenewalofcooperationbetweenthecountrieshasbeenwelcomedbyrepresentativesoftheRussiantourismindustry.
TheRussiantourismindustryislookingforwardtoTurkeyreopeningforRussiantourists,RussiasTourismIndustryUnionspokeswomanIrina
TyurinatoldInterfaxMonday.
ThesaleofpackagetourstoTurkeywasbannedaspartoftheeconomicrestrictionsagainstAnkara.
However,TyurinanotedthatthebanwaslinkedwithsecurityconcernssothereisnocertaintythataftertheTurkishleader'sapologythe
destinationwillbereopenedforRussiantourists.
ThespokeswomanaddedthatRussiantouristagencieshavesufferedbadlyduetothebanasnoothercountrycanreplaceTurkeyintermsof
price,qualityandlevelofservice,Interfaxreported.
Turkeyisnowreportedlypreparedtopaycompensation:http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/turkey-ready-to-pay-
compensation-for-downed-russian-warplane/573627.html
SpainarrestssixRussiansinRussianMafiamoneylaunderingcase
Accordingtoslon.ru,atleastsixRussianswerearrested:http://slon.ru/posts/70066alongwithaUkrainianandaSpaniard
SpanishpolicesaythesuspectshadtiestoRussianpoliticians,includingmembersofUnitedRussia.Thesuspectswerealso
reportedlylinkedtoaColumbiandrugcartel
SoloveyonRussiasviewofBrexit(PeskovonBrexit)
http://new.vk.com/id244477574
TheresanoptimisticpointofviewthatBrexitmeansanEUpre-occupiedwithstrugglingoveritsexistencewillweakenpressure
onRussia.Supposedly,sanctionsimposedovertheDonbasswillbeweakenedattheendofthisyearinexchangeforremoving
heavyweaponsandvacationerscontrolintheDonbassandovertheborderwillbepassedtojointforcesmadeupoflocal
militiasandtheOSCEThepessimisticviewisthatinspiteofeverything,theWestwillremainunitedagainstRussiaandthat
newAmericanandBritishadministrationswillactdecisivelyandenergeticallyagainstRussiaThecynicalrealistviewisthatthe
problemisnotwiththeWestorwithsanctions,butwithdefectsinRussianpolicy,policythatisunlikelytochange
PeskovonBrexit:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/kremlin-says-brexit-turmoil-reminiscent-of-soviet-union-
collapse
TheupheavalintheU.K.afteritsBrexitreferenduminfavorofleavingtheEuropeanUnionhassimilaritiestothe1991collapse
oftheSovietUnion,accordingtoRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsspokesman.
Whileitsunreasonabletodrawdirectparallels,itsobviousthattheU.K.isgoingthroughaturbulent,confusingand
unpredictableperiod,DmitryPeskovtoldreportersonaconferencecallMonday.Russiahasgonethroughthecollapseofthe
SovietUnionandmanygenerationsclearlyremembertheperiodoftheSovietcollapse,thatperiodofuncertainty.
RussiasrecallingthetraumaoftheendoftheSovietUnionastheU.K.wrestleswiththeconsequencesofbecomingthefirst
memberstatetochoosetoleavetheEU,castingashadowovertheblocsfutureexistence.TheUSSRwasdissolvedin
December1991,morethan18monthsafterLithuanialedtheBalticrepublicsindeclaringindependence.TheBalticstatesof
Estonia,LithuaniaandLatviajoinedtheEUin2004andallthreehavesinceadoptedtheeuroastheircurrency.Putincalled
theSovietcollapsethegreatestgeopoliticalcatastropheofthe20thcenturyin2005.
Therubleralliedthemostamongemerging-nationcurrencies,followingoilonMonday,paringitssharpestdropintwomonths
onFriday,whentheshockreferendumresulthammeredmarketsglobally.Ittraded0.4percentstrongerat65.3533perdollar
at3:29p.m.inMoscow.
Inthecurrentfragilesituation,oneblackswancanpullothersalongwithit,RussianFinanceAntonSiluanovsaidFridayin
Moscow,referringtotheeconomicimpactofrareunpredictableevents.Russianpolicymakersshouldbereadyfornegative
scenariosintheglobaleconomy,hesaid.
TheKremlinisfollowingeventscloselybecauseofpotentialeconomicconsequences,thoughtherearemorequestionsthan
answersnow,Peskovsaid.RussiahasoftenurgedtheU.K.torestoretiesinrecentyears,anditwillworktomaintaingood
relationswiththeEUsinceithasaninterestinastable,fast-developingandpredictableEurope,hesaid.
Senttime: 06/27/201610:45:51PM
To: teagueeliza<teagueeliza@aol.com>
Subject: GEE!!!
http://moscowonthames.wordpress.com/2016/06/24/everything-is-true-and-nothing-is-possible/
EverythingIsTrueandNothingisPossible
LetthisbealessontothosewhothinkthatDonaldTrumpcannotwin.
ThedecisionbyamajorityofBritishvoterstoleavetheEuropeanUnionisnotarejectionofBrusselsmostBritish
votersknowlittleofhowtheEUworksandcareevenless.NorwasitarejectionofWestminster(agoodchunkof
whichsupportedBrexit),oroftheelite(publicschoolboysBorisJohnson,MichaelGoveandNigelFaragewonthe
day).
Thiswassomethingmore:Brexitisarejectionofthepoliticalcommunityassuch.
Twodaysbeforethereferendum,thejournalistOliverBulloughhadthistosayonFacebook:
Oncethisvilereferendumisover,whoeverwins,Britainneedstostartworkingouthowtomake
oursystemfairer.Atthemoment,itisjusttooeasyfortherichtogetawaywithfinancial
skulduggery,becausethepolice/taxauthoritiesareunder-resourced,therulesareover-complex,
andforeignjurisdictionsareunhelpful.Weneedtostartsortingthatout,andforcingthebig
peopletofollowtherulestheyimposeonthelittlepeople,otherwisemoreoutburstsoffury
againsttheelites,theexperts,etcwillfollowjustlikethisone.
ThedifferencebetweenBulloughandthe52percentofBritishvoterswhobackedBrexitisthatBulloughthinksthis
kindofprogressispossible.Amajorityofhiscompatriotsdonot.
WhyamIwritingaboutthisinaRussiablog?BecauseIseethiseverydaywhenIlookatRussia.WhenAndrew
WilsonfirstwroteaboutvirtualpoliticsaboutthefakingofdemocracyinRussiaandUkraineinthe2000she
wasdescribingpoliticiansbehavingexactlythewayFarageetal(butalsoDavidCameronwhenitsuitedhispurpose)
dobusiness:inventionanddissimulation,spectacleandemptypopulism.Thisismadepossiblenotbecausepeople
arestupidandthuseasytofool,butbecausetheyhavestoppedcaring.Andtheyhavestoppedcaring,becausethey
haveceasedtobelievethatthestate,astheembodimentofthepoliticalcommunity,candoanythingforthem.
WhenPeterPomerantsevsummedupRussianpoliticalculturewiththeepithetnothingistrueandeverythingis
possible,hegotitbackwards.Threedecadesofinstitutionaldecayandcollapse,ofsocial,politicalandeconomic
dislocationhavetaughtpost-Sovietcitizensthatthereisvalueonlyintheprivate,thatthestatecannotandwillnot
workforthem,andsotheseekingandfindingofcommonalitytheinvestmentinthepublicthatisrequiredforany
politicalcommunitytofunctionisafoolserrand.Becausenopublicfutureispossible,anyprivateliecan
becomethetruth.
ThesamedaythatBulloughwroteaboutBritain,AlexanderKolyandr,aMuscovitefriendofminehadthistosay
aboutRussia:
Theftandlying,togetherwithpridetheideathatthisisthewayeveryonedoesitandsoyou
shouldntbeafoolthatswhatcreatesthispervasivecorruptionandcausesittoflowerlikea
tropicalrainforest.
Oneofmyfriendsjustcouldntgetherheadaroundtheideathatitmightbewrongtomoochoff
oftheneighborsWiFi,whileanotheragreatloverofCultureandLiteraturehappilystole
fromthestatebudget,because,youknow,otherwisesomeoneelsewouldhavegottenthemoney,
andsheneedsitmore,afterallherparentsaresickandshedoesnthaveahusband.
ThereasonwhyUkrainelostCrimeaandapieceoftheDonbaswaspreciselythis,asystemof
corruptionfromtoptobottom,frompresidentsandparliamentarianstoordinarycitizens,rolling
backtheirelectricmeters.That,plusprideandlies.
Inmyunderstanding,itwaspreciselythisthatledtothedeathofthosechildrenonthelake.All
ofthisIcanbreakthosestupidrules,everyoneelsedoesit,Idontwanttomissout,betterme
thansomeoneelse,wellfixitallonpaper.
Theft,liesandpride.Anyofthetwowillcreatetheother.Alltogether,theykill.
InBritainandtheUS,asinRussia,thecriticalpoliticalwatershedisntbetweenleftandright,betweeninformedand
ignorant,betweennationalistandinternationationalist,butbetweenthosewho,likeBullough,believethatadifferent
futureispossible,andthose,likethe17millionBritishvoterswhotickedtheleavebox,forwhomthatbeliefislost.
Andbecauseitisamatterofbelief,noamountofpatientlyexplainingthefacts,noamountofrationaldebate,will
carrytheday.Faithinthepublic,inthecommonwealth,mustberestored.TheSovietUniondidnotchooseto
collapse,buttheWestisnowbeginningtopaythepriceforcastingitsowncitizensadriftasinofcommissionfor
whichtherewillbenoeasyindulgence.Leadersandcitizenswhostillbelievemustfightforandwinanew,proactive
agenda,inwhichthestatebuildsbothpublicandprivateprosperity,ratherthangivingstrugglingcitizensnothingmore
thanafree-marketsmileandanausterepatontheback.
ThealternativeisthepoliticsofPutin,ofBrexitand,yes,ofDonaldTrump.Getusedtoit.
Senttime: 06/27/201610:08:25PM
BCc: swallen@1scom.netchris.bort@gmail.comnaterey80@gmail.comdonald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject: NezGazontheMeaningofBelykh(deprivingtheoppositionofatrump?ruiningimageoftherulingeliteradicalization)
http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-06-28/2_red.html
""
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From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 06/27/201603:17:12PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Subject: Re:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27
Forwhatit'sworth,IthinkObamaandespeciallyKerryhaveforalong
timebeentoopreemptivelycringingtoPutin.Putin,I'msure,seesthis
asweaknessandbecomesmoreaggressiveandlesscooperative.It's
counter-productivetobesoaccommodatingtopeoplelikeVVP.
M.
On27/06/201620:12,RobertOttowrote:
>
>Relationsbetweenthetwosideshavedeterioratedtodangerouslevels.
>ItsintheU.S.nationalinteresttoexplorebetterrelationswith
>Russiafromapositionofstrength,somethingthatwillrequireboth
>patienceandrealisminacknowledgingthattheeffortmaynotsucceed.
>IfMoscowrefusestooblige,Washingtonshoulddowhateverisnecessary
>toprotectitsinterests.Sincethisislikelytoberiskyandcostly,
>itshouldnotbeAmericasfirstchoice.
>
>>OnJun27,2016,at1:36PM,JohnBDunlop>>wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>*From:*JohnBDunlop
>>*Sent:*Monday,June27,201610:37AM
>>*To:*howard@jamestown.org
>>*Cc:*paul.goble@gmail.com
>>'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
>>*Subject:*"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSallover
>>Europe,"washingtonpost.com,6/27
>>
>>And:RussianspiesapparentlykilledaUSDIPLOMATsDOG,slate.com
>>,6/27
>>
>>And:SNOWDENdenouncesRussiasunjustifiableSURVEILLANCE
>>bill,telegraph.co.uk,6/27
>>
>>And:TheDumasBIGBROTHERlegislationkillsRussiasInternet
>>companiesandhurtsordinaryWebusers,Meduza.io,6/27[Englishedition]
>>
>>And:Russianoppositiongovernor[NIKITABELYKH]arrestedfor
>>corruptionclaimsinnocence,themsocowtimes.com
>>,6/27
>>
>>And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKII,AJUNTAofthetransition
>>period,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/piontkovsky_a/1791482-echo/
>>
>>RelatesthearrestoftheGovernorBelykhtotheintensepower
>>struggleatthetopinRussia.
>>
>>And:VOLODINandKADYROVwillcompeteintheStateDumaelections
>>fromUnited
>>Russia,http://www.nvoayagazeta.ru/comments/736231.html?print=1
>>
>>And:OneofTRUMPstwoleadingRussiaspecialists,DmitriSIMES
>>[identifiedbyPiontkovskiiasaRussianasset],issuesawarning:
>>RussiaandAmerica:DestinedforConflict?nationalinterest.org
>>,6/27
>>
>>And:POROSHENKOtravelstoBrusselstodiscussBREXITimpactonEU
>>rleationswithUkraine,unian.info,6/27
>
Senttime: 06/27/201612:12:20PM
To: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Cc: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Subject: Re:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27
Relationsbetweenthetwosideshavedeterioratedtodangerouslevels.ItsintheU.S.national
interesttoexplorebetterrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrength,somethingthatwill
requirebothpatienceandrealisminacknowledgingthattheeffortmaynotsucceed.IfMoscow
refusestooblige,Washingtonshoulddowhateverisnecessarytoprotectitsinterests.Sincethisis
likelytoberiskyandcostly,itshouldnotbeAmericasfirstchoice.
OnJun27,2016,at1:36PM,JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>wrote:

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,June27,201610:37AM
Subject:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27

And:RussianspiesapparentlykilledaUSDIPLOMATsDOG,slate.com,6/27

And:SNOWDENdenouncesRussiasunjustifiableSURVEILLANCEbill,telegraph.co.uk,
6/27

And:TheDumasBIGBROTHERlegislationkillsRussiasInternetcompaniesandhurts
ordinaryWebusers,Meduza.io,6/27[Englishedition]

And:Russianoppositiongovernor[NIKITABELYKH]arrestedforcorruptionclaims
innocence,themsocowtimes.com,6/27

And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKII,AJUNTAofthetransition
period,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/piontkovsky_a/1791482echo/

RelatesthearrestoftheGovernorBelykhtotheintensepowerstruggleatthetopinRussia.

And:VOLODINandKADYROVwillcompeteintheStateDumaelectionsfromUnited
Russia,http://www.nvoayagazeta.ru/comments/736231.html?print=1

And:OneofTRUMPstwoleadingRussiaspecialists,DmitriSIMES[identifiedby
PiontkovskiiasaRussianasset],issuesawarning:RussiaandAmerica:Destinedfor
Conflict?nationalinterest.org,6/27

And:POROSHENKOtravelstoBrusselstodiscussBREXITimpactonEUrleationswith
Ukraine,unian.info,6/27
Senttime: 06/27/201610:36:56AM
Subject: FW:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27
And:RussianspiesapparentlykilledaUSDIPLOMATsDOG,slate.com,6/27
And:SNOWDENdenouncesRussiasunjustifiableSURVEILLANCEbill,telegraph.co.uk,6/27
And:TheDumasBIGBROTHERlegislationkillsRussiasInternetcompaniesandhurtsordinaryWeb
users,Meduza.io,6/27[Englishedition]
And:Russianoppositiongovernor[NIKITABELYKH]arrestedforcorruptionclaimsinnocence,
themsocowtimes.com,6/27
And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKII,AJUNTAofthetransitionperiod,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/piontkovsky_a/1791482echo/
RelatesthearrestoftheGovernorBelykhtotheintensepowerstruggleatthetopinRussia.
And:VOLODINandKADYROVwillcompeteintheStateDumaelectionsfromUnitedRussia,
http://www.nvoayagazeta.ru/comments/736231.html?print=1
And:OneofTRUMPstwoleadingRussiaspecialists,DmitriSIMES[identifiedbyPiontkovskiiasa
Russianasset],issuesawarning:RussiaandAmerica:DestinedforConflict?nationalinterest.org,
6/27
And:POROSHENKOtravelstoBrusselstodiscussBREXITimpactonEUrleationswithUkraine,
unian.info,6/27
Senttime: 06/26/201610:03:53AM
Subject: FW:"DespiteRussia'ssomberfacade,glimpsesofJOYoverEUvote:EagertofindEuropeweaker,"nytimes.com,6/26
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Sunday,June26,201610:04AM
To:'howard@jamestown.org'
Cc:'paul.goble@gmail.com''waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"DespiteRussia'ssomberfacade,glimpsesofJOYoverEUvote:EagertofindEuropeweaker,"nytimes.com,6/26
And:MichaelMcFAUL,HowBREXITisawinforPUTIN,oped,WashingtonPost,6/25
And:RussiaREVELSinBREXITvote,http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27817778.html
And:POROSHENKOcomesunderENEMYFIREinDonbas,unian.info,6/26/16
And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKII,Theregimehasenteredastageofcoupdetats,http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576E441AD5B89
InalengthyinterviewPiontkovskiidiscusses,interalia,thepowerstruggleatthetopinRussia,theassassinationofNemtsov,
andallegedRussianassetsworkingfortheTRUMPcampaign
And:TheinvestigationhasturnedoverthecaseofNemtsovsmurdertotheRussianGeneralProcuracy:
http://ww.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73541.html?print=1
Themastermindbehindthekillingaccordingtotheinvestigation?Itwasachauffeurbutanextraordinarilywealthyone.
Senttime: 06/22/201601:12:23PM
To: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Cc: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Re:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHEDbyRussian
Subject:
HACKERS,"bloomberg.com,6/27
ThismorningsKommersantclaimedthefinalvotewasscheduledfor6/24,butittookplacetoday.
ThedocumentnowgoestotheFederationCouncil
OnJun22,2016,at12:55PM,JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>wrote:

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,June22,20169:39AM
Subject:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHED
byRussianHACKERS,"bloomberg.com,6/27

TheClintonFoundationwasamongtheorganizationsbreachedbysuspectedRussian
hackersinadragnetoftheUSpoliticalapparatusaheadoftheNovemberelection,
accordingtothreepeoplefamiliarwiththematter.Theattacksofthefoundationsnetwork,
aswellasthoseoftheDemocraticPartyandHillaryClintonspresidentialcampaign,
compoundconcernsaboutherdigitalsecurityTheRepublicanPartyandtheTrump
campaignhavebeenmostlysilentonthecomputerattacks.

And:TheStateDumahasadoptedafinalversionoflawscreatingtheNATIONAL
GUARD:http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/0622/1525484.html[Avoteonthe
controversialArticle21isscheduledforJune24]

And:RussiaisPREPARINGFORWAR,KommersantcitesamajorJunereportby
CanadianIntelligence:kommersant.ru,6/21

And:FortheCanadianIntelligenceServiceReport,see2018SecurityOutlookPotential
RisksandThreats,www.csis.sers.gc.ca,June2016ChapterThreeisentitled:Russian
Futuresto2018.

And:[Victoria]NULANDarrivesinKyiv[today]todiscussMINSKACCORDS,unian.info,
6/22

And:USCommander[Lt.GeneralBenHodges]:NATOcouldntstopRussianattackon
BALTICS,http://rferl.org/articlprintview/27813839.html

And:PavelFELGENHAUER,WhatistheHomeland[i.e.,Russia]defendingitself
against?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/273557.html?print=1

And:ThespecialoperationsoftheSILOVIKIoftheKremlinchef[EvgeniiPRIGOZHIN]
againstdisloyalPetersburgjournalistsandbloggers,Fontanka.ru,reposted
at:http://www.compromat.ru/page_37036.htm
And:WhatsgoingonatRussiasKGBSUCCESSOR?InterviewwithAndreiSOLDATOV
ofAgentua.ru,meduza.io,6/21[InEnglish]
And:PutinpraisesDumaforworktointegrateCRIMEA,themsocowtimes.com,6/22
Senttime: 06/25/201607:22:56AM
FW:[EARLYWEEKENDREADINGROOM---MUSTREADORNOTEITEMS][DavidK]AfterBrexit,JoyinMoscow[JanuszB]Bye-ByeBritain..[PB]UK'sPointofNoReturnAftertheBrexit,What'sNextforDefense?
Subject:
[ODDD]ALLITEMSWORTHNOTINGCAREFULLY.[MOJO]H...
Sent:Friday,June24,20162:04PM
Subject:Fwd:[EARLYWEEKENDREADINGROOM---MUSTREADORNOTEITEMS][DavidK]AfterBrexit,JoyinMoscow[JanuszB]Bye-ByeBritain..[PB]UK'sPointofNoReturnAftertheBrexit,What'sNextfor
Defense?[ODDD]ALLITEMSWORTHNOTINGCAREFULLY.[MOJO]H...
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at5:03PM
Subject:[EARLYWEEKENDREADINGROOM---MUSTREADORNOTEITEMS][DavidK]AfterBrexit,JoyinMoscow[JanuszB]Bye-ByeBritain..[PB]UK'sPointofNoReturnAfter
theBrexit,What'sNextforDefense?[ODDD]ALLITEMSWORTHNOTINGCAREFULLY.[MOJO]HowtheFSBBreaksPOWs[CherM]SenateandtheDarnedRURocketEngines
From:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Walter-forwhatit'sworth...
http://www.mccaininstitute.org/newsroom/blog/after-brexit-joy-in-moscow
AfterBrexit,JoyinMoscow
byDavidJ.KrameronFri,June24,2016
HumanRightsandDemocracyNationalSecurity
OnecanalmostheartheclinkingofvodkaglassesintheKremlin.AmongthosehappiestwithyesterdaysBrexitvoteareRussianleaderswhocouldnothavedoneabetterjobof
dividinganddistractingEuropethanBritishvotersthemselvesdid.
Foryears,VladimirPutinandhisminionshavesoughttosowdivisionsinEurope.TheyprovidemoneydirectlyinsomecasesseeMarineLePeninFranceortheirpropaganda
throughRTandSputnikanddososurreptitiouslyinotherstoinfluenceEuropeaneliteandbroaderpublicopinion.
Theoutcomeofyesterdaysvote,however,hadlittletodowithRussianinfluenceBritshaveonlythemselvestoblame.ButleadersinMoscowareveryhappy.Vladimir
Zhirinovsky,headofRussia'sLiberalDemocraticParty(whichisneitherliberalnordemocratic),describedBritsdecisionasagreatactofbravery.
AtnextweeksEuropeanleaderssummit,preciouslittlewillbesaidaboutRussiasongoingaggressionagainstUkraineandallfocuswillbeonthefalloutoftheUKsexitfromthe
EU.WhileEuropeanambassadorstotheEUagreedonrenewingsanctionsagainstRussiaforitsinvasionofUkraineearlierthisweek,Italyhasinsistedthatleaderstakeupthe
issuenextweekattheirmeeting.Renewalofsanctionsstillseemslikelybutafteryesterdaysreferendum,anythingispossible,especiallysincetheUKhasbeenafirmadvocate
forEUsanctionsagainstRussia,andPrimeMinisterDavidCameronwillbeinnopositiontoleadthechargenextweekonthisissue.
YesterdaysvotewillalsothrowamonkeywrenchintotheNATOsummit,whichwillbeheldinWarsawJuly8-9.NATOSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergquicklycameoutto
declarethattheUKspositioninNATOwillremainunchanged.Thatsundoubtedlytrue,butBritishvotershavecastapallovernotjusttheEUbutNATO,too,becausethey
havemadeitokaytopullonthestrings,sotospeak,ofEuro-atlanticinstitutions.
AndnowthattheBritshavedoneit,otherEuro-skepticpartiesandleadersinEuropewillstartaskingtodothesamething.Bulgaria,forexample,hassaiditwantsnopartof
NATOactivitiesintheBlackSea.GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierblastedNATOforengaginginsabre-rattlingandwarmongeringforitsrecentexercisesin
Poland.
InjoiningsuchinstitutionsasNATOandtheEU,countriescannottreatthemasiforderingfromarestaurantmenupickingwhattheywantandrejectingwhattheydontlike.
ThereisnodoubtthattheEUhasmanyproblemstofixNATO,too,hasissuesitneedstoaddress.Butexitingfromtheseorganizationsisunlikelytochangethemforthebetter.
FollowingBritain,NATO,Schengenandtheeurowillcollapse,RussiasZhirinovskywentontosay.LonglivetheRussianrubleandthedevelopmentofrelationswithallthe
democraticcountriesofEurope!MoscowMayorSergeiSobyanintweetedthatwithouttheU.K.,therewillbenobodyintheEUtodefendsanctionsagainstRussiasozealously.
Eveniftheyarewrong,thecelebrationinMoscowwithyesterdaysoutcomeshouldgiveBrexitsupportersseriouspause.
From:JanuszBugajski<jbugajski.usa@gmail.com>
Subject:ByeByeBritain
To:JanuszBugajski<jbugajski.usa@gmail.com>
CEPA
mentionedyou.
Reply

Jun24
CEPA
@cepa

CEPA's@JBugajskiUSAreacts
to#Brexit.goo.gl/z63gCf#BrexitVote
Viewconversation
Settings|Help|Opt-out|Downloadapp
Twitter,Inc.1355MarketStreet,Suite900SanFrancisco,CA94103
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Subject:BritainsPointofNoReturn|ForeignAffairs
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
Notablequoteonthereferendum:"RatherthanagreatdisplayofBritishdemocracy,thecampaignhasturnedouttobeanundignifiedmudslingingcontestfeaturingoutrightlies,alarmistdoomsayersand
blatantxenophobia."Soundfamiliar?
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/2016-06-21/britain-s-point-no-return?cid=emc-brexit_reading_subs-content-
062416&sp_mid=51687891&sp_rid=YXBiLnVrZUBlYXJ0aGxpbmsubmV0S0&spMailingID=51687891&spUserID=ODIwODcyNzAyMjkS1&spJobID=943562025&spReportId=OTQzNTYyMDI1S0
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Subject:AftertheBrexit,What'sNextforDefense?
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
Here'soneearlyview.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2016/06/24/after-brexit-whats-next-defense/86333926/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Defense%20Breaking%206.24.16&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Breaking%20News
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:USEMoscow,NYT(2),RFE/RL(2),Economist
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
USEmbassyMoscow
ReadoutofAssistantSecretaryVictoriaNuland'sJune23VisittoMoscow
June24,2016
http://moscow.usembassy.gov/nuland-06242016.html
AssistantSecretaryofStateforEuropeanandEurasianAffairsVictoriaNulandandNSCSeniorDirectorsCelesteWallanderandCharlesKupchanvisitedMoscowJune23forconsultationswithRussian
officialsonthesituationineasternUkraineandnextstepstoimplementtheMinskagreementsinsupportoftheNormandycountries.TheRussiandelegationwasledbyPresidentialAdministrationSenior
AdvisorVladislavSurkov.
Thediscussionswereverydetailed,thoroughandconstructive.TheyfocusedheavilyonthesecurityaspectsofMinsk,includinghowtoaccelerateafullceasefire,heavyweaponswithdrawalandfullOSCE
accesstoEasternUkraine.TheyalsoreviewedtheongoingworkonthepoliticalandhumanitarianaspectsoftheMinsk,insupportoftheNormandyprocess.
TheNewYorkTimes(2)
Russia'sPutinSaysDoesn'tExpectBrexittoInfluenceEUSanctionsonRussia
ByREUTERSJUNE24,2016,9:06A.M.E.D.T.
Continuereadingthemainstory
TASHKENTRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayhedidnotexpectBritain'svotetoleavetheEuropeanUnionwouldinfluencetheeconomicsanctionsimposedonRussiabytheEU.
PutinsaidthathewasreadyfordialoguewiththeEU,butthekeytoresolvingthesanctionsproblemliedwiththeleadershipofUkraine,whichhesaidshouldimplementitscommitmentswithintheMinsk
peacedeal.
(ReportingbyDenisDyomkinWritingbyDmitrySolovyovEditingbyAlexanderWinning)
TheNewYorkTimes
EUtoBeStrongActoronWorldStageAfterBrexit:EUForeignPolicyHead
BRUSSELSTheEuropeanUnionwillcontinueasanimportantplayerontheworldstagedespiteBritishpeoplehavingvotedtoleavetheEUinareferendum,theEU'sforeignpolicychiefsaidonFriday.
"Wewillcontinuetoactasaforceforpeace,aproviderofsecurity,andastaunchsupporterofinternationalcooperationandmultilateralism,"FedericaMogherinisaid,addingsheregrettedBritain'sdecision
toleave.
ApermanentmemberoftheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilandoneoftheEuropeanUnion'stwomainmilitarypowers,Britainhasbeenoneofthemostvocalmembersofthe28-memberblocincallingfor
sanctionsagainstRussiainthewakeoftheconflictineasternUkraine.
(ReportingbyRobert-JanBartunekeditingbyPhilipBlenkinsop)
RFE/RL
UkraineLinksEUUnityToRussiaSanctionsMoldovaCommittedToJoiningEU
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-moldova-brexit-vote-reactions/27817680.html
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkohassaidintheaftermathofBritain'svotetoleavetheEuropeanUnionthathe"expectsthesanctionsagainstRussiaasacountry-aggressor"tobeextended.
OnJune24,PoroshenkolinkedEuropeanunitytothesanctionsthatBrusselshasimposedagainstRussiaforitsroleinUkraine'scrisis.
Poroshenkosaid,"Today,thecurrentchallengefortheEuropeanUnionistofindawaytotheheartsofEuroskepticssoasnottoallowasinglechancetotheopponentsoftheEurointegrationproject."
In2014,despitepressurefromRussia,UkrainesignedanAssociationAgreementwiththeEUaspartofitsbidtoeventuallyjointhebloc.
Meanwhile,Moldova'spro-EUPrimeMinisterPavelFiliponJune24calledBritain'svotetoleavetheEUa"saddayforEurope."
FilipsaidMoldovaremainedcommittedtojoiningtheEU,"despitetheresultintheU.K.,becausewetrusttheEUasasuccessfulproject."
MoldovaalsosignedanAssociationAgreementwiththeEUin2014.
BasedonreportingbyAP,Reuters,andUnimedia.md
RFE/RL
June24,2016
UkraineArrestsFormerRiotPoliceForAllegedRoleInMaidanKillings
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-former-berkut-arrested-maidan-killings-2014/27817717.html
Ukrainianauthoritieshavearrestedfourformerofficersofthe"Berkut"riotpolicefortheirallegedroleintheviolentdispersalofpro-EuropeanprotestersinKyivinearly2014.
LarysaSarhan,aspokeswomanforUkraine'sProsecutor-General'sOffice,saidonJune24thatthefoursuspectswereservingonUkraine'snationalpoliceforceatthetimeoftheirarrestonJune23.
ThefourareallegedtohaveusedviolentforcetodisperseprotestersinKyivonFebruary18,2014,duringthefinaldaysofpro-RussiaformerPresidentViktorYanukovych'srule.
Theyhavebeenchargedwithabuseofpower,attemptedmurder,andillegallypreventingcitizensfromgatheringanddemonstrating.
Oneofthesuspectswasalsochargedwiththepremeditatedmurderofmorethanoneperson.
MorethanahundredpeoplewerekilledinandaroundKyivscentralIndependenceSquare,knownastheMaidan,fromFebruary18to20,2014.
Thedeathscameaftermonths-longoppositionproteststhatpromptedYanukovychtofleeUkraineinlateFebruary--adeparturethatledparliamenttovoteforhisremovalongroundsthathewasunableto
fulfillhisduties.
BasedonreportingbyUNIANandInterfax
TheEconomist
TheEUsRussiasanctions
Smallcarrot,mediumstick
BlockinginvestmenthasonlyslightlyrestrainedRussia
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21701184-blocking-investment-has-only-slightly-restrained-russia-small-carrot-medium-stick
Jun25th2016|STPETERSBURGANDWASHINGTON,DC|Fromtheprintedition
ATlastweeksStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,VladimirPutinsflagshipeconomicconference,apairofguestsraisedRussiasincreasinglyferventhopesforarapprochementwiththeEuropean
Union.MatteoRenzi,Italysprimeminister,regaledthecrowdwithreferencestosharedculturalhistory.TheEuropeanCommissionspresident,Jean-ClaudeJuncker,chidedRussiaforitsaggressionin
Ukraine,butalsospokeofbuildingbridges.Nonetheless,whenthesanctionscomeupforre-approvalattheendofthismonth,theEUlookssettoextendthetoughestonesuntilJanuary2017.
TheEUisholdingthelineonsanctionswithstrongbackingfromGermany,despitetheusualsquabbling.Butquestionsremainabouttheireffectiveness.SomeWesterncriticssaythesanctionsmerelyallow
AmericanandEuropeangovernmentstoshowthattheyaredoingsomething,withoutchangingRussiasbehaviourorhelpingtostabiliseUkraine.
AmericandiplomatsarguethatthesanctionsdeterredRussiafromseizingmoreUkrainianterritoryin2014.Infact,newoffensiveswerelaunchedlongafterthesanctionswereinplace.Moreimportantly,
RussiasgoalintheDonbas,unlikeinCrimea,wasnottoseizeterritory.Rather,itsoughttodestabiliseUkraine,showingbothitsownpeopleandotherformerSovietrepublicsthatanyrevoltwouldbe
followedbybloodshed.
OnegoalofmaintainingsanctionsnowistokeepuppressuretoimplementtheMinskpeaceaccordforeasternUkraine.YetRussiahasdonelittletoendtheconflict.Americaschiefdiplomatontheissue,
VictoriaNuland,ismeetingofficialsinKievandMoscowthisweek,buttheprocessremainsfrozen.TheMinskformat,saysoneseniorAmericanofficial,providesRussiawithaframeworktochangeits
policy.ButtheKremlinshowsnosignofdoingso.
AnotherstatedpurposeofthesanctionsistoconvinceMrPutinsinnercircletopersuadehimtomoderatehispolicies.YetassetandtravelbansoninfluentialindividualshaveonlyreinforcedRussiasfortress
mentality.Bansontechnologytransfersmayhurttheoilindustryinthelongrun,buttheyhaveyettobite:Russianoilfirmsreportedrecordoutputin2015.
Mosteconomistsagreethatthesanctionsmatterfarlessthanthecollapseinoilprices.EvseyGurvichandIlyaPrilepskyofMoscowsEconomicExpertGroupestimatethatcheaperoilcosttheRussian
economymorethanthreetimeswhatsanctionsdid.Theroublesperformanceagainstthedollartracksglobaloilpricesithashadlittlecorrelationwithsanctions.
ThemosteffectivesanctionsarethoserestrictinglendingtokeyRussianbanksandcompanies.Theirdeliberatevaguenesshasarippleeffect:investorsrefusetofinanceevenfirmsthatarenotdirectlynamed.
Oneforeignbankscompliancedepartmentapprovedonlyoneof20dealsitclosed.EvenChineselenders,whoMoscowhopedwouldhelpfillthevacuumleftbytheWest,havebeenreluctant.TheRussian
government,whichdoesnotfalldirectlyundersanctions,hadtroubleraisingfundslastmonthduringitsfirstbondofferingsince2013,asWesterngovernmentspressuredbanksnottotakepart.TheKremlin
hasbeenpushingimportsubstitution,inpartbyimposingitsowncounter-sanctionsimportbansonWesternfood.Buttheresultshavebeenextremelylimited,mainlytoagriculture.
WhattheRussianeconomyreallyneedsisinvestment.Foreigndirectinvestmenthascollapsed(seechart).YetevensanctionsreliefmightnotreviveRussia.TheWorldBankreckonsthatliftingthemwould
provideonlya0.9%boosttoGDPin2017.TheireffectonRussianpolicymaybeparadoxical:thewarinUkrainewaspartlyMrPutinsanswertoaslowingeconomyathome.Mostimportantly,theKremlin
stillbelievesthatUkrainianineptitude,EuropeandivisionsoranelectoralvictorybyDonaldTrumpcouldbringanendtosanctionsallbythemselves.WhileRussiaentertainssuchhopes,sanctionsalonewill
nottameitsbehaviour.
From:<jm200p@mac.com>
Subject:HowtheFSBbreaksprisoners[ED:InterviewwithtwoUAPOWs]
To:
perhaps of interest
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/18/afanasyev-and-soloshenko-how-the-fsb-breaks-prisoners/
From:BardUkrainka<seanachie_holodonika@icloud.com>
Subject:SenateFindsCompromiseonRussianRocketEngines
CheckoutthisarticlefromDefenseNews:
SenateFindsCompromiseonRussianRocketEngines
http://defnews.ly/1tpeyMt
Senttime: 06/22/201609:55:28AM
FW:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHEDbyRussian
Subject:
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,June22,20169:39AM
Subject:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHEDbyRussian
TheClintonFoundationwasamongtheorganizationsbreachedbysuspectedRussianhackersina
dragnetoftheUSpoliticalapparatusaheadoftheNovemberelection,accordingtothreepeople
familiarwiththematter.Theattacksofthefoundationsnetwork,aswellasthoseoftheDemocratic
PartyandHillaryClintonspresidentialcampaign,compoundconcernsaboutherdigitalsecurityThe
RepublicanPartyandtheTrumpcampaignhavebeenmostlysilentonthecomputerattacks.
And:TheStateDumahasadoptedafinalversionoflawscreatingtheNATIONALGUARD:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/0622/1525484.html[AvoteonthecontroversialArticle21is
scheduledforJune24]
And:RussiaisPREPARINGFORWAR,KommersantcitesamajorJunereportbyCanadian
Intelligence:kommersant.ru,6/21
And:FortheCanadianIntelligenceServiceReport,see2018SecurityOutlookPotentialRisksand
Threats,www.csis.sers.gc.ca,June2016ChapterThreeisentitled:RussianFuturesto2018.
And:[Victoria]NULANDarrivesinKyiv[today]todiscussMINSKACCORDS,unian.info,6/22
And:USCommander[Lt.GeneralBenHodges]:NATOcouldntstopRussianattackonBALTICS,
http://rferl.org/articlprintview/27813839.html
And:PavelFELGENHAUER,WhatistheHomeland[i.e.,Russia]defendingitselfagainst?
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/273557.html?print=1
And:ThespecialoperationsoftheSILOVIKIoftheKremlinchef[EvgeniiPRIGOZHIN]against
disloyalPetersburgjournalistsandbloggers,Fontanka.ru,repostedat:
http://www.compromat.ru/page_37036.htm
And:WhatsgoingonatRussiasKGBSUCCESSOR?InterviewwithAndreiSOLDATOVofAgentua.ru,
meduza.io,6/21[InEnglish]
And:PutinpraisesDumaforworktointegrateCRIMEA,themsocowtimes.com,6/22
From: Gottemoeller,RoseE<GottemoellerRE@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/20/201601:37:05PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>Handler,JoshuaM<HandlerJM@state.gov>
Cc: Otto,Robert<OttoRC@state.gov>
Subject: RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite
Yes, I read both in Russian. Was interested in the lack of nuclear saber rattling and other threats, for
a change. Thoughtful commentaryif from Russian perspective. RG
From:Handler,JoshuaM
To:Gottemoeller,RoseE'Bob'
Cc:Otto,Robert
Subject:RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite
Rose,YesinthesensetheyarefromtheKremlinwebsiteandseeminglyfollowtheRussiantranscript.WhethertheKremlins
translationgoteverynuanceoftheoriginalRussianIcantquitesay,butBobsenttheexcerptsfrombothpresentationsinhisearlier
e-mail.Seeattached.Thanks,
ThisemailisUNCLASSIFIED.
From:Gottemoeller,RoseE
To:Handler,JoshuaM'Bob'
Sorry, Josh, should have read on: are these complete translations? Thanks, R
To:Gottemoeller,RoseEAVCManagersPlusAVC-ESA-DLAVC-ESC-DLAVC-NRRC-StaffAVC-Press-DLAVC-SSD-DLBallas,Spiro
Bell,AlexandraFBoggs,PhillipWBorges,ManoelaGBurgess,JoshuaCCarhart,RobertNJrCope,AaronMDean,PaulBDodge,
SimonPDoell,CynthiaDolliff,PhillipRDonoho,GideonTEUR-PRA-AVCEUR-RPM-PMD-DLEUR-RUS-POL-DLFaithful,FrederickL
Fetter,SteveA.EOP/OSTPGelman,JeffreyDGodfrey,AnthonyFGoldstein,StephanieEGreaney,BrianEHalupka,NicholasA
Handler,JoshuaMHolmes,StephanieEHornbostel,CharlesPJensen,DanaEJonWolfsthalKavalec,KathleenAKile,JeffreyK
Lacey,EdwardLawson,KevinJMikulsky,AlexJ(Geneva)Nelson,RobertWOtto,RobertPark,RebeccaC.Parrish,ScottDPearce,
StacyL(London)Phelan,DonnaARoraff,BrianRRuss,LauraW(London)Rusten,LynnFSmilansky,GeneSolomon,HowardT
(Vilnius)Spykerman,JohnDTarar,Humza(Zed)Tefft,JohnFterHaar,MiaFTierney,JenniferMTratensek,AlexanderWright,
JaneyF
Subject:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite
PutinmaderemarksaboutmissiledefenseandstrategicstabilityintwovenuesattheSt.Petersburg
InternationalEconomicFormthatmadeheadlinesovertheweekend.
AtthePlenarysessioninresponsetoFareedZakariasquestionherelatedthenegativeconsequencesof
theU.S.withdrawingfromtheABMTreaty.Laterinameetingwithmembersoftheinternationalpresshe
elaboratedfurther,mentioninghowtheyfeltdeceivedbyUSactions,andtalkedaboutthepotential
deploymentof1,000kmoffensivemissilesintheAegisashore(thoughdidntmentionINFbyname)and
USPGSprograms.Hiscommentsareworthacloseread.Somepressstoriesmergedthereportingon
thetwoevents.SeehighlightsandRFE/RLarticlebelow.
InthePlenarysessionhealsospokeabouttheU.S.beingtheonlysuperpower,andhisviewsontheU.S.
Presidentialcandidates.Tackedonthelatterattheendasitisrevealing.LinkstoEnglishlanguage
transcriptonKremlinsiteareprovidedasthewholepresentationisworthaskim.Anynumberoftopics
ontheinternationalagendaarecovered.
Thanks,
PlenarysessionofStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum
VladimirPutinspokeattheplenarysessionoftheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.
June17,201616:20StPetersburg
Plenarysessionmoderator,CNNhostFareedZakaria:Thankyoutoallthreeofyou:twopresidents,one
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehave
agreedupon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,
andthenIwillwidenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.We
startedalittlebitlate,sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.
PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnion
sanctionsandUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildup
forcesinstatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-
grade,lower-levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?
VladimirPutin:IdonotwanttobelievethatwearemovingtowardsanotherColdWar,andIamsure
nobodywantsthis.Wecertainlydonot.Thereisnoneedforthis.Themainlogicbehindinternational
relationsdevelopmentisthatnomatterhowdramaticitmightseem,itisnotthelogicofglobal
confrontation.Whatistherootoftheproblem?
Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpected
overallprosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speaking
inmodernterms:economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,
aggressionofinternationalterror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitants
intheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupport
fromourpartnersinourstrugglewiththeseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupport
fortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedonotacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,only
atthetechnological.
Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrative
backup.
Later,afterwetackledthoseproblems,wentthroughserioushardships,wecametofaceanotherthing.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATO
continuestoexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.
Montenegroisbecominga[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionis
beingtotallyignored.
Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]
fromtheABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnited
Statesforagoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.
Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquit
thetreaty,sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensive
arms,andweassumeitisnotaimedagainstus.
Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwas
strugglingwithitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,
torturedbyterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainour
arsenals,letalonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefence
forcesunilaterallywhileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.
AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.Whathasbecome
oftheIraniannuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,step
bystep,oneafteranother,andsoon.
Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.They
ferventlysupportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?
Chaos.
Iamnotinterestedinlayingblamenow.Isimplywanttosaythatifthispolicyofunilateralactionscontinues
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenot
coordinatedthensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekout
abalanceofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,
butitistheonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.
Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArab
Spring,theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?
Ihaveoftenspokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatis
inpowernowwouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.We
wouldhaveworkedwiththemaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresident
Yanukovych.
Butno,theyhadtoproceedwithacoup,casualties,unleashbloodshed,acivilwar,andscaretheRussian-
speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,
simplyhadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,
ratchetinguptensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistence
oftheNorthAtlanticbloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthis
organisationnecessaryinthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirected
against?
Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeach
other,thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperation
andthesearchforcompromise.(Applause.)
FareedZakaria:Soletmeaskyou,MrPresident,thenwhatisthewayout?BecauseIsawaninterview
ofyoursthatyoudidwithDieWelt,theGermannewspaper,inwhichyousaid,thekeyproblemisthat
theMinskAccordshavenotbeenimplementedbytheGovernmentinUkraine,byKiev,theconstitutional
reforms.TheysayontheothersidethatinEasternUkraine,theviolencehasnotcomedown,
andtheseparatistsarenotrestrainingthemselves,andtheybelieveRussiashouldhelp.Sosinceneither
sideseemstobackdown,willthesanctionsjustcontinue,willthislow-gradecoldwarjustcontinue?What
isthewayout?
VladimirPutin:Anditisallaboutpeople,nomatterwhatyoucallthem.Itisaboutpeopletryingtoprotect
theirlegalrightsandinterests,whofearrepressioniftheseinterestsarenotupheldatthepoliticallevel.
IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthrough
thenight.Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreed
ultimatelythatpoliticalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.
Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutional
amendmentsthathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobe
seen.Thelawonaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhave
beenputintopractice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeinto
effect.Thereshouldhavebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasnever
signedbythepresident,ithasnoeffect.
Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduring
ananti-terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountry
holdelectioncampaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?
They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarian
restoration.Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolence
onthefrontlinesisjustanexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachother
ofopeningfire.Whydoyouthinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,Itis
Ukrainiangovernmentforces,theUkrainianarmy.
Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisis
agoodenoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitute
thefoundationofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.
Somethingshavetobedoneinparallel.IagreewithMrPoroshenkothattheOSCEmissionhastobe
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedone
toimprovesecurity.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelack
ofsecurityinthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)
..
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/52178
Meetingwithheadsofinternationalnewsagencies
VladimirPutinhadameetingwithheadsofleadinginternationalnewsagencies.
SergeiMikhailov:LetusnowgobacktotheAmericancontinent.MalcolmKirkhasbeenrepresenting
CanadianPress,Canadasnationalnewsagency,forthreeyearsatourmeetings.OnSeptember1,
theagencywillcelebrateits100thanniversary,andIhopethatbeingahugefanofhockeyMrKirkwilluse
thiscentenaryasanopportunitytoplayhockey,andmaybeyouwouldeveninvitehimtoplayintheNight
HockeyLeague.
VladimirPutin:Withpleasure,butonlyifheplaysonmyteam,sinceCanadiansaresogoodaticehockey.
MalcolmKirk:Thankyou.WelookforwardtowelcomingRussiaandothercountriestoToronto
andtoCanadalaterthissummerfortheWorldCupofHockeysoitshouldbeagreatevent.Iveseen
afewofyourhockeymoves.Youknowhowtoscoreafewgoals,MrPresident.Soyourstatsarepretty
good.Thankyouagainforinvitingustothismeetingwithyou.Itisaprivilegeandwecertainlyappreciate
theopportunitytospendsometimewithyou.Iamgoingtoaskyou:therearesomereportsthatCanadais
underpressurefromtheUnitedStatestojoinBritain,GermanyandtheUSintheNATOinitiativethat
wouldseefourtroopbattalionsstationedinPolandandotherBalticstates.Thesecountriesmayfeelthisis
perhapsanactofdeterrenceintheeventthatRussiawastoperhapsinvadetheirterritory.Howwouldyou
viewCanadasparticipationinNATOplansshouldtheCanadiangovernmentmakethedecisiontodoso?
AndIguessgenerallyhowwouldyoucharacteriseRussiasrelationswithCanadanowthatwehaveanew
government?Thankyou.
VladimirPutin:Letmestartwiththelastpartofyourquestion.SincethenewPrimeMinistertookoffice
inCanada,therehasbeenachancethatrelationsbetweenRussiaandCanadacouldimprove.Thisiswhat
thePrimeMinistertoldmeinpersonattheG20SummitinAntalya.Hesaidhewantedtothinkofways
tofullyrestoreourrelations.Wewelcomeinitiativesofthiskindandarereadytocombineourefforts
indeliveringonthisobjective.Wewillworktogether,buttherearespecificstepsthatshouldbetaken
bybothsidesbeforewegetthere.
Asforthemissiledefencesystem,look,peopleinthisaudiencearealladultsandareveryexperienced.
IamnotaskingyoutomirroreverythingIamabouttosaywordforwordinyourcoverageortoinfluence
presscoverage.Ijustwanttotellyousomethinginperson,andremindyouofsomethings.Afterall,
theworldisfreeoflarge-scalewarsormilitaryconflict,andweallknowthat.Thisisduetotheso-called
strategicbalancethatemergedwhentwonuclearsuperpowersagreedtolimittheiroffensiveandmissile-
defencearsenals.Everyoneunderstandsthatifonesideismoresuccessfulindevelopingitsmissiledefence
thantheother,itgainsanedgeandhasthetemptationtobethefirsttousetheseweapons.Itisforthis
reasonthatmissiledefenceandagreementsinthisregardareoneofthecornerstonesofinternational
security.
Itisnotatallmyintentiontoberateoraccuseanyoneofanything,butwhenourUSpartnersunilaterally
withdrew[fromtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty],thiswasamajorblow.Infact,thiswasthefirstblow
tointernationalstabilityintermsofupsettingthestrategicbalanceofpower.Isaidbackthen,Weare
currentlyunabletodevelopthistechnologyduetothehighcosts,andsecondly,ithasyettobeseenhowit
willwork.Insteadofsimplysiphoningoffmoney,wewillgotheotherwaybyimprovingRussiasoffensive
weaponsinordertomaintainthebalance.Thiswastheonlypurpose,andithadnothingtodowith
threateninganyone.Hereiswhatweheardinresponse:Itistruethatourmissiledefencesystemisnot
intendedtoopposeRussia,andweassumethatwhatyoudoisnotagainstus,soyoumaydoasyou
please.
Icanexplainthisbysaying,asIdidattheplenarysessiontoday,thatitwastheearly2000swhenRussia
wasinaverycomplicatedsituation,witharuinedeconomy,anactualcivilwarandthefightagainst
terrorismintheCaucasus,thedefenceindustrycollapsingandtheArmedForcesdramaticallyweakened.
WhocouldimaginethenthatRussiawouldbuildupitsstrategicweapons?Theyprobablythoughtthat
theweaponsRussiainheritedfromtheSovietUnionwouldeventuallybecomedegraded.Andsotheytold
ustogoaheadanddowhatwewanted.However,weinformedthemaboutourplans,whichweare
implementing.Trustme:Russiahasmovedalongwayonthispath.Iwillnotreadouttheentirelist,but
Icantellyouthatwehavemodernisedourweaponsandarecreatingnew-generationsystems,not
tomentiontheweaponsthataredesignedtopenetrateballisticmissiledefencesystems.
Despiteallourobjectionsandoffersofrealcooperation,ourpartnersdonotwanttocooperatewithus
theyhaverejectedallofourproposalsandareworkingtotheirownplans.Ibelieveitinappropriatetosay
certainthingsinpublic,butIcanassureyou,andyoucanchoosetobelievemeornot,thatweoffered
practicalcooperationalternativesthatwererejected.
Eventually,theybuiltaBMDsysteminRomania.Theykeptsayingthattheyweredoingthistoprotect
themselvesagainstanIraniannuclearthreat.Butwhereisthisthreatnow?Itdoesnotexist.Wehave
signedatreatywithIran,anditwastheUnitedStatesthatinitiatedit.Wedidourbest,helpingasmuch
aswecould,butthetreatywasonlymadepossiblethroughthepositionoftheUS.Thissuccessshouldbe
creditedtoPresidentObama.Ibelieveitisagoodtreaty,whichhaseasedtensionsaroundIran,
andPresidentObamashoulddefinitelygivehimselfthecreditforthis.
Anyway,thereisnoIranianthreat,buttheBMDsystemisbeingbuiltnevertheless.Thismightmeanthat
wewererightwhenwesuspectedourpartnersofbeinginsincere,ofdeceivinguswithreferences
toanallegedIraniannuclearthreat.Yes,thisishowitwastheyattemptedtocheatusagain.
Theyhavebuiltthissystemandarenowdeliveringmissilesthere.Youprobablyknowthatthelaunch
systemsoftheTomahawksea-launchedintermediate-rangemissileswillbeusedtolaunchanti-missiles
withaneffectiverangeof500kilometres.However,technologydoesnotstandstill,andweknowmore
orlesspreciselywhentheAmericanswillcreateanewmissilethatwillhavearangeof1,000
kilometresormore.Fromthattimeon,theywillbeathreattoournucleararsenals.
Weknowwhatwillhappenandinwhichyear,andtheyknowweknowit.Theyarejustthrowingdust
inoureyes,asthesayinggoes,andyouinturnarethrowingdustintheeyesofyourpeople.Whatbothers
meisthatpeoplearenotawareofthedanger.Wefailtounderstandthatwearedraggingtheworldinto
acompletelynewdimension.Thisiswhatthisisallabout.Theyarepretendingasifnothingisgoing
on.Idonotevenknowhowtoputmymessageacross.
Wearebeingtoldthatthisispartofadefensive,notoffensive,capability,thatthesesystemsareintended
toensuredefenceagainstaggression.Thisisnottrue.Thisisnotthewaythingsare.Astrategicmissile
defencesystemispartofanoffensivestrategiccapability,andistightlylinkedtooffensivemissilestrike
systems.Somehigh-precisionweaponsareusedtocarryoutapre-emptivestrike,whileothers
serveasashieldagainstaretaliatorystrike,andstillotherscarryoutnuclearstrikes.Allthese
objectivesarerelated,andgohandinhandwiththeuseofhigh-precisionconventionalweapons.
Allright,evenifweputasidetheinterceptormissilesthatwillbedevelopedinthefuture,increasingly
threateningRussia,butthelaunchtubeswherethesemissilesarestored,asIsaid,arethesamethatare
usedonnavyshipstocarryTomahawkmissiles.Youcanreplaceinterceptormissileswith
Tomahawksinamatterofhoursandthesetubeswillnolongerbeusedtointerceptmissiles.
Howdoweknowwhatisinsidethem?Alltheyneedistochangethesoftware.Thiscanbedone
seamlesslyeventheRomanianswouldnotknowwhatisgoingon,sincetheycannotaccess
thesefacilities,right?Noonewillknow,neithertheRomanians,northePoles.Iknowhowthisis
done.Inmyopinion,thisisamajorthreat.
WhenwediscussedthiswithourUSpartners,theyhadtheideaofcreatingnonnuclearballistic
missiles.Wesaid,Listen,doyouunderstandwhatthiswouldbe?Imaginethatyoufire
asubmarine-launchorland-basedmissile.Aballisticmissileislaunched.Howdoweknow
whetheritiscarryinganuclearwarheadornot?Doyouunderstandthekindofthreatthiswould
create?Asfarasweknow,thisprogrammeiscurrentlysuspended.Theyhavestoppedit
fornow.However,theyarestillworkingonit.
Idonotknowwherethiswilltakeus.However,Russiawilldefinitelyhavetoretaliate.Iknowalreadythat
wewillbeaccusedofactingaggressively,eventhoughallwedoisrespond.Itisclearthatwewillhave
toensuresecurity,andnotjustinRussia,sinceensuringthestrategicbalanceofpowergloballyisamatter
ofgreatimportanceforus.
IwouldliketoconcludemyanswerwithwhatIstartedwith:itisthestrategicbalancethatensured
andguaranteedpeaceontheplanet,sparingusfrommajormilitaryconflictoverthelast70years.This
shouldbeviewedasgood,eventhoughitisbasedonmutualthreat.However,thismutualthreatbrought
aboutglobalpeacefordecades.Idonotknowhowanyonecouldwanttodestroyit.Ibelievethatthis
wouldbeverydangerous.NotonlydoIbelieveit,Iamcertainofit.
IfCanadawantstojoin,goahead,whatcanwesay?Wecannotorderyou.Doasyouplease,andwewill
doaswedeemnecessaryintermsofensuringoursecurity.
SergeiMikhailov:Thankyou,MrPresident.
PutinCallsU.S.MissileShield'GreatDanger,'VowsRussian
Response
June18,2016RFE/RL
RussianPresidentVladimirPutincalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"andsaid
Russiawillrespond.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"and
vowedthatMoscowwillrespondbyenhancingitsownmissilestrikecapability.
WhileNATOinsiststheshieldisadefensivesystemaimedinpartatthwartingpossibleIranianmissile
strikes,PutinsaiditcanbeeasilyturnedintoanoffensivesystemthatcouldbeusedagainstRussia.
"Thosetubes,thosesiloswheremissilesareputareusedforTomahawks.TheseTomahawkscanbeput
thereinjustafewhours,andthenthesewillbenotmissileinterceptors,"Putintoldinternationalnews
leadersinSt.PetersburgonJune17.
"Youhaveonlytochangethesoftware,andthat'sit.Thisworkisabsolutelyinvisible.TheRomanianswon't
knowwhat'shappeningthere,"hesaid."Nobodywillknow,eitherRomaniansorPoles.Iknowhowit's
done."
"Inmyview,thisisreallydangerous,"hesaid,addingthat"weknowapproximatelywhichyearthe
Americanswillgetanewmissilethatwillhavearangeofnot500kilometersbut1,000kilometers,and
fromthatmomenttheywillstartthreateningournuclearpotential."
Putinaddedthat"wewillhavetorespond"tothethreats,although"Iknowinadvancethatwewillagainbe
accusedofaggressivebehavior"whenRussiaresponds.
"Wewillperfectourmissilestrikecapability,"toensurethat"strategicbalance"ismaintainedinEurope,he
said."Wewillhavetoensurenotonlyourownsecurity.Itisvitalforustoensurestrategicbalanceinthe
world."
PutinaddedthatheworriesthatthegrowingmilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheUnitedStates
"isdraggingtheworldintoanewdimension."
"Peoplefeelnodanger,andthatisalarmingforme.Canweseethatwearedraggingtheworldintoan
utterlynewdimension?"
Putinsaidhedidn'tknowhowto"bringthishome"toleadersfromothercountries.
WithreportingbyReuters,Interfax,andTASS
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/putin-calls-us-missile-shield-eastern-europe-great-danger-vows-russian-
response/27806039.html
FareedZakaria:Letmeaskyou,MrPresident,aboutanotherdemocracythatishavingaverydifferent
kindofdrama.YoumadesomecommentsabouttheAmericanRepublicanpresumptivenominee,Donald
Trump.Youcalledhimbrilliant,outstanding,talented.Thesecommentswerereportedaroundtheworld.
Iwaswondering,whatinhimledyoutothatjudgement,anddoyoustillholdthatjudgement?
VladimirPutin:Youarewellknowninourcountry,youpersonally.NotonlyasahostofamajorTV
corporation,butalsoasanintellectual.Whyareyoudistortingeverything?Thejournalistinyouisgetting
thebetteroftheanalyst.Look,whatdidIsay?IsaidinpassingthatTrumpisavividpersonality.Ishenot?
Heis.Ididnotascribeanyothercharacteristicstohim.However,whatIdefinitelynoteandwhat
IdefinitelywelcomeandIseenothingwrongaboutthis,justtheoppositeisthatMrTrumpsaidthathe
isreadyforthefull-scalerestorationofRussian-USrelations.Whatiswrongwiththat?Weallwelcome
this!Dontyou?
Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewill
workwithanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,they
lectureeveryoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthere
aredemocratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstanding
behindthoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehave
debateswithourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:
Donotmeddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:
Wellthen,donotmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.
But,toreiterate,indeed,thisisnoneofourbusinessalthough,inmyopinion,evenprosecutorstherechase
internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreaten
tojailthem.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americais
agreatpower,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnited
Statesandwearepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.There
willbea[new]headofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomic
processesatworkintheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,
andwealsoneedit.Butwedonotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,
andpreventingEuropefrombuildingarelationshipwithus.
HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.It
couldnotcarelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehaveno
impactonit.TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansare
tellingtheirpartners:Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.
Matteo,whyshouldtheybepatient?NowMatteowillexplainwhytheyshould.Heisabrilliantorator,
wereseeingitnow.Hisremarkswereexcellent.Iamsayingthissincerely,honestly.Italycanbeproud
ofitsPrimeMinister,really.Justbeautiful.
Wedonotlavishpraiseonanybody.Itsnoneofourbusiness.AsGermanssay,thisisnotourbeer.
Becausewhentheymaketheirchoice,wewillworkwithanypresidentwhohasreceivedthesupport
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithour
countryandhelpbuildamoresecureworld.
FareedZakaria:Justtobeclear,MrPresident,thewordbrilliantwasintheInterfaxtranslation,Irealize
thatothertranslationsmightsaybright,butIusedtheofficialInterfaxtranslation.Butletmeaskyou
aboutanotherpersonyouhavedealtwithagreatdeal.MrTrump,you'venevermet.HillaryClintonwas
SecretaryofState.InyourverylongquestionsandanswerswiththeRussianpeople,youmadeajoke
whensomebodyaskedyouaboutheryousaid,IthinkthattheRussiaidiomis,thehusbandandwifeis
thesamedevil.AndwhatitmeansintheEnglishversionis,it'stwosidesofthesamecoin.Whatdidyou
meanbythat,andhowdidshedoasSecretaryofState?Youdealtwithherextensively.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotworkwithher,Lavrovdid.Askhim.Heissittinghere.
Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]
Gromyko.(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?
IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icaneven
saythatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveral
occasions,heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.Iremember
thisandIamgratefultohim.
AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,
thereissomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-US
relationsorwithnationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.
Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjob
andafterward.Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibility
theybegintotalkandthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesense
ofresponsibilityoftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworld
dependstoday,thatthissenseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperate
withRussiaand,Iwouldliketorepeat,buildamoresecureworld.
From: Handler,JoshuaM<HandlerJM@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/20/201601:01:25PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>Gottemoeller,RoseE<GottemoellerRE@state.gov>
Cc: Otto,Robert<OttoRC@state.gov>
Attachments: RE:PutinonABMTreaty/MissileDefenseatStPEconomicForum6/17.eml
Rose,YesinthesensetheyarefromtheKremlinwebsiteandseeminglyfollowtheRussiantranscript.WhethertheKremlins
translationgoteverynuanceoftheoriginalRussianIcantquitesay,butBobsenttheexcerptsfrombothpresentationsinhisearlier
e-mail.Seeattached.Thanks,
From:Gottemoeller,RoseE
To:Handler,JoshuaM'Bob'
JaneyF
Thanks,
atthetechnological.
backup.
Chaos.
Yanukovych.
against?
isthewayout?
..
HockeyLeague.
security.
please.
Response
June18,2016RFE/RL
Russiawillrespond.
done."
world."
this!Dontyou?
From: Gottemoeller,RoseE<GottemoellerRE@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/20/201610:33:21AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>Handler,JoshuaM<HandlerJM@state.gov>
JaneyF
Thanks,
atthetechnological.
backup.
Chaos.
Yanukovych.
against?
isthewayout?
..
HockeyLeague.
security.
please.
Response
June18,2016RFE/RL
Russiawillrespond.
done."
world."
this!Dontyou?
From: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Senttime: 06/19/201602:33:05PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fw:Thisisunsettlingtosaytheleast............
AdrianaskedmetoaskyouforyourtakeontheWashingtonPostarticle.
OnSunday,June19,20168:26AM,StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>wrote:
IhadreadawhileagothatManafortwasadvisingYanukovychwhenthelatterwasinpower.Thatinformationcausedmetotakenotice.ItisonethingforUScitizenstobeadvisingBritishorLatinAmericanpoliticians,which
happensalot.Butsuchclosenesstocorrupt,authoritarianRussiansandUkrainians?No.
OnSaturday,June18,201610:39PM,AdrianHarmata<aharmata3@gmail.com>wrote:
HaveIbecomeimmunetoTrump?IamactuallymoretroubledbyManafort'srelationshipwiththeRussiansthanTrump'sties.......
HaveyouheardanythingfromBobO.onthisarticle?Iwonderhowmuchiscompletelyaccurate....
http://subscribe.washingtonpost.com/acquisition/?prompt=1&promo=digital03_paywall&oscode=RPWH&wpsrc=CM0000446&page=politics:article%20-%207b6c1998b7a0%20-%2020160617%20-%20inside-trumps-financial-
ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin&section=wp%20-
%20politics&prev=&geo=&ctype=article&signedin=logged%20out&mcount=5&sub=0&ismetered=1&destination=http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-
putin/2016/06/17/dbdcaac8-31a6-11e6-8ff7-
7b6c1998b7a0_story.html&action=3&sub=0&mtr=1&mtrct=5&mtfn=1&t=10002&st=200&loc=1&mvw=5&wa=3&fr=0&dt=0&mx=0&pwo=1&rwb=0&sgn=0&v=2.3&acq_test=1#/paywall/offers/promo/digital03_paywall/oscode/RPWH?
wpsrc=CM0000446&page=politics:article%20-%207b6c1998b7a0%20-%2020160617%20-%20inside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin&section=wp%20-
%20politics&prev=&geo=&ctype=article&signedin=logged%20out&mcount=5&sub=0&sub=0&ismetered=1&destination=https:%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2Finside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-
unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin%2F2016%2F06%2F17%2Fdbdcaac8-31a6-11e6-8ff7-
7b6c1998b7a0_story.html&action=3&mtr=1&mtrct=5&mtfn=1&t=10002&st=200&loc=1&mvw=5&wa=3&fr=0&dt=0&mx=0&pwo=1&rwb=0&sgn=0&v=2.3&acq_test=1
Senttime: 06/20/201609:33:31AM
FW:[BB..resendingitemtothisbccsec][ALATESATEVENINGPOST'COMPARE&CONTRAST'][FantasyFactory][ANT/F]BBC:
Subject:
DE/FMSteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"(callingEEexercisesprovocative)..[HarshHarshReality][MK][byJSinObser
Sent:Saturday,June18,20167:53PM
Subject:[BB..resendingitemtothisbccsec][ALATESATEVENINGPOST'COMPARE&CONTRAST'][FantasyFactory][ANT/F]BBC:
DE/FMSteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"(callingEEexercisesprovocative)..[HarshHarshReality][MK][byJSin
Observ...
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at10:05PM
Subject:[ALATESATEVENINGPOST'COMPARE&CONTRAST'][FantasyFactory][ANT/F]BBC:DE/FMSteinmeier
haswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"(callingEEexercisesprovocative)..[HarshHarshReality][MK][byJSinObserver]
FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand[intheCyberCaliphatethreat](.speakingofprovocative)
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Subject:SteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"[ED:IstheoldDE/SDFMfollowinginthefootstepsof
hisBoss,Gazprom'sGerrySchroeder??.orisheishisownman--ie--thegrandarchitectofadisastrousUA&GE
NATOMAPrefusalattheBucharestSummitof2008??]
NordStream2insteadofmilitaryexercises,isthathisidea?("makelove,notwar")
SteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering",afteritconductedmilitaryexercisesin
EasternEurope.MrSteinmeiersaidthatextensiveNatomanoeuvreslaunchedthismonthwerecounterproductiveto
regionalsecurityandcouldinflametensionswithRussia.
HeurgedtheNatomilitaryalliancetoreplacetheexerciseswithmoredialogueandco-operationwithRussia.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36566422
Subject:FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand|Observer[ED/Notethesub-title:"TheIslamicStates
hackingarmydoesntactuallyworkforISISItspartofthesecretRussianonlineespionageeffortagainstthe
West"]
FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand|Observer
http://observer.com/2016/06/false-flags-the-kremlins-hidden-cyber-hand/
OPINION
FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand
TheIslamicStateshackingarmydoesntactuallyworkforISISItspartofthesecret
RussianonlineespionageeffortagainsttheWest
ByJohnR.Schindler06/18/1612:15pm
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheKremlininMoscow.(Photo:YURIKOCHETKOV/AFP/GettyImages)
Fortwoyearstheso-calledCyberCaliphatehasbeentheonlineweaponbrandishedbytheIslamicState
againstitsenemies.Itshackingoffensive,includingaggressiveuseofsocialmedia,madefront-pagenews
aroundtheworld,heraldinganewfrontinthatmurderousgroupsworldwidejihadagainstinfidels.
PledgingsupporttoISIS,theCyberCaliphatehackedanddefacedU.S.Governmentwebsitesandsocial
mediafeeds,includingthoseofCentralCommand,thePentagonsMiddleEastheadquarters.Numerous
smallercyber-attacksfollowed.TheyalsohackedintoDepartmentofDefensedatabasesandpostedthe
personalinformationof1,400Americanmilitaryaffiliatesonline.
TheCyberCaliphatehasattackedtargetsinmanycountries,includingallegedlyaccessingtopsecretemails
belongingtoseniorBritishgovernmentofficials.ThemostpublicoftheirattackswastheApril
2015hijackingofseveralfeedsbelongingtotheFrenchchannelTV5Monde,whichincludeddefacingits
websitewiththesloganJesuisISIS.Thisassault,seenbymillionsofpeopleworldwide,gavethegroup
thenotorietyitcraved
TheAmerican-ledcoalitionagainstISIShastakentheCyberCaliphatethreatseriously,devotingsignificant
intelligenceresourcestotrackingandstudyingthegroup.WesternfearsincreasedthisAprilwith
theannouncementthatdisparateISIShackersweremerging,creatinganewUnitedCyberCaliphate,
designedtobeamajorexpansionoftheexistingCyberCaliphate.Drawingtogetherjihadisthackersfrom
manycountries,thiswouldconstituteamajoronlinethreat.
Inresponse,thePentagoninlateFebruaryannouncedtheunleashingofrealcyber-waragainstISIS,
includingattacksbyU.S.CyberCommandagainsttheIslamicstatescommunications,inanefforttodisrupt
theiractivitiesbothkineticandonline.NeitherarethePentagonseffortstoshutdowntheIslamicStates
onlineanticslimitedtotheInternet.InAugust2015,adrone-strikeatRaqqa,ISISsSyrianstronghold,
killedJunaidHussain,a21-year-oldBritishjihadistofPakistanioriginwhowasthegroupsbest-known
hacker.
However,therehavelongbeenwhispersthattheCyberCaliphateisnotwhatitclaimstobe.French
intelligenceexaminedthegroupcloselyaftertheTV5Mondeattackandconcludedthatthehackersinvolved
actuallyhadnothingtodowiththeIslamicState.Rather,theywereaffiliatesofahackingcollectiveknown
tobeaffiliatedwiththeKremlin,inparticularAPT28,anotoriousgroupthatsasecretarmofMoscow,
accordingtoWesternsecurityexperts.Inotherwords,theCyberCaliphateisaRussianintelligence
operationworkingthroughwhatspiestermacut-out.
CyberCaliphateisaRussianfalse-flagoperationnastier
intelligenceserviceswillmasqueradeasterroriststofurther
theiragenda.
U.S.secretagencies,includingtheNationalSecurityAgency,whichcontrolsAmericancyber-espionageand
workscloselywithCYBERCOM,cametosimilarconclusions.APT28isRussianintelligence,itsthat
simple,explainedanNSAexperttomerecently.Hencethemid-2015StateDepartmentsecurityreportthat,
whileassessingthejihadisthackersasaformidablethreat,neverthelessconcluded,AlthoughCyber
Caliphatedeclarestosupport[theIslamicState],therearenoindicationstechnicalorotherwisethatthe
groupsaretied.
ThishasbecometheconsensusviewamongWesternintelligenceservicesthathavecloselyexaminedISIS
hackingefforts.FromthenewsmagazineDerSpiegelwenowlearnthatGermanspyservicestoohave
concludedthattheCyberCaliphateisreallyasecretRussianoperation.Germanintelligenceassessesthatthe
Kremlinhassome4,000hackersonthepayrollofitssecurityagencies,includingtheGeneralStaffsMain
IntelligenceDirectorateorGRU,theForeignIntelligenceServiceorSVR,andtheFederalSecurityService
orFSB.Together,thisisaformidableoffensivecyberforcethatoperatesthroughfrontsandcut-outsto
attackWesterninterests.
Inotherwords,theCyberCaliphateisaRussianfalse-flagoperation.Althoughthatloadedtermhasbeen
hijackedbytinfoil-hatwearersandfringewebsites,includinglunaticswhothinkhorrificschoolshootings
didntactuallyhappen,itsaperfectlylegitimateespionagemethodofvenerablevintage.Spyagencies
routinelyposeasthirdpartiesforoperationalpurposessuchasagentrecruitmentandcovertaction.The
nastierintelligenceserviceswillevenmasqueradeasterroriststofurthertheiragenda.
NobodyismoreadeptatthisdodgypracticethantheRussians,whohavebeenusingfalse-flagsintheirspy
workformorethanacentury.Indeed,fortheKremlin,thiscommonplacepracticeconstitutesakeyelement
ofwhattheytermprovocation(provokatsiyainRussian),meaningtheuseofspiesandtheiragentstocause
secretpoliticaleffectsthatarehelpfultoMoscowandhurtfultoMoscowsenemies.
TheideathatVladimirPutinauthorizedhisintelligenceagenciestogotocyberwaragainsttheWestunderan
ISIScloakisanythingbutshockingtoanybodyinformedaboutlongstandingRussianespionagetradecraft,
whattheytellinglyrefertoaskonspiratsiya(yes,conspiracy).Theonlyinnovationhereistheonline
aspect.EverythingelsereflectsacenturyoflessonslearnedinKremlinspywork.Thesearethesortsof
clandestinethingsPutinwastrainedinandactuallydidasaKGBofficer.Andtherearenoformer
intelligenceofficers,astheRussianpresidenthasstated.
ThishasimplicationsfarbeyondtheIslamicState.NewsthisweekthatRussian-affiliatedhackershave
pillagedWashington,DC,includingraidingtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandHillaryClintons
campaign,oughtnotsurprise.AmongtheitemspilferedfromtheDNCincludeoppositionresearchon
DonaldTrump,thepresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnominee.
Americahasneglectedcounterintelligenceforsolongthatwe
haveallowedRussianintelligenceintotheheartofnotjustour
securityservicesbutofourdemocracyitself.
NowwelearnthattheseKremlinhackingeffortsextendfarbeyondtheDNC.TargetsinrecentRussian
cyber-attacksincludenumerousthink-tanks,lawfirms,lobbyists,andconsultants.Therewerealsoalmost
4,000Googleaccountstargetedinaspear-phishingcampaigntostealpersonalandprivilegedinformation.
Itsclearthatthiscoordinatedoffensiveaimedattheheartofournationscapitalstoleagreatdealofinside
knowledgeaboutAmericaspoliticalelitethatwouldbeofhighvaluetoanyforeignintelligenceservice.
InsideinformationabouthowAmericanpoliticsactuallyworksincludingsecretdealsbetweenpoliticians,
lobbyists,lawyers,andconsultantswoulddefinitelybesomethingPutinwouldwanttoknowashis
governmentseekstounderstandandinfluenceourpoliticalelite,includingwhoeveriselectedournext
president.
AmericahasneglectedcounterintelligenceforsolongthatwehaveallowedRussianintelligenceintotheheart
ofnotjustoursecurityservicesbutofourdemocracyitself.Aidedbytopsecretinformationstolenbytheir
guestEdwardSnowdenfromNSAabouthowU.S.cybersecurityworks,Kremlinspiesarenowfeastingon
whatevertheylikeinWashington.
IpreviouslyexplainedinthiscolumnhowHillaryClintonsemailshenaniganshelpedourenemies,including
Russia,whileharmingournationalsecurity.Nowitsevidentthatourpoliticalsystemhasbeenpenetrated
top-to-bottombyRussianspies.WhoevermovesintotheWhiteHouseinJanuarywillfacediggingoutfrom
asecuritydebacleofunprecedentedproportions,withtheKremlinholdingtheupperhandacrosstheboard.
SEEALSO:VLADIMIRPUTINHASEVERYTHINGHENEEDSTOBLACKMAILHILLARY
CLINTON
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligence
officer.Aspecialistinespionageandterrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.
HespublishedfourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
Senttime: 06/18/201610:02:27AM
MoreontheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum(PutinsspeechandQ&A:Russia/NATO/AnewColdWar?Ukraine/the
MinskagreementsSyria/Assad/ElectionsUSpresidentialelections/Russia-USThedopingscandal/Russiansoccer
fans)
StanovayaontheEconomicForumandforeignbusiness
SoloveyongesturestoAmerica
GermanforeignministeronNATOwarmongering
fans)
Seeyesterdaysnotes.
IdidabriefsummaryofPutinsspeechandincludedalinktotheRussianinyesterdaysnotes.HereareexcerptsfromanEnglish
versionofthespeech:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178
Thestructuralproblemsaccumulatedbytheglobaleconomystillpersist,andwehavenotyetputoureconomyonthegrowthtrajectory.
Incidentally,currentgeopoliticaltensionsarerelated,tosomeextent,toeconomicuncertainty
andtheexhaustingoftheoldsourcesofgrowth.Thereisariskitmayincreaseorevenbeartificiallyprovoked.
Itisourcommoninteresttofindacreativeandconstructivewayoutofthissituation.
Theworldsleadingeconomiesarelookingforsourcesofgrowth,andtheyarelookingtocapitalise
ontheenormousexistingandgrowingpotentialofdigitalandindustrialtechnologies,robotics,energy,
biotechnology,medicineandotherfields.Discoveriesintheseareascanleadtotruetechnologicalrevolutions,
toanexplosivegrowthoflabourproductivity.Thisisalreadyhappeningandwillhappeninevitablythereis
impendingrestructuringofentireindustries,thedevaluationofmanyfacilitiesandassets.Thiswillalter
thedemandforskillsandcompetencies,andcompetitionwillescalateinbothtraditionalandemerging
markets.
Infact,eventodaywecanseeattemptstosecureorevenmonopolisethebenefitsofnextgeneration
technologies.This,Ithink,isthemotivebehindthecreationofrestrictedareaswithregulatorybarriers
toreducethecross-flowofbreakthroughtechnologiestootherregionsoftheworldwithfairlytightcontrolover
cooperationchainsformaximumgainfromtechnologicaladvances.Wehavediscussedthiswithour
colleaguessomesayitispossible.Ithinknot.Onecancontrolthespreadofcertaintechnologiesforawhile,
butintoday'sworlditwouldbenexttoimpossibletokeeptheminacontainedarea,evenalargearea.Yet,
theseeffortscouldleadtobasicsciences,nowopentosharingofknowledgeandinformationthroughjoint
projects,gettingclosedtoo,withseparationbarrierscomingup.
Over40statesandinternationalorganisationshaveexpressedthedesiretoestablishafreetradezonewith
theEurasianEconomicUnion.OurpartnersandwethinkthattheEAEUcanbecomeoneofthecentres
ofagreateremergentintegrationarea.Amongotherbenefits,wecanaddressambitioustechnological
problemswithinitsframework,promotetechnologicalprogressandattractnewmembers.Wediscussedthis
inAstanaquiterecently.NowweproposeconsideringtheprospectsformoreextensiveEurasianpartnership
involvingtheEAEUandcountrieswithwhichwealreadyhaveclosepartnershipChina,India,Pakistan
andIranandcertainlyourCISpartners,andotherinterestedcountriesandassociations.
AsearlyasJunewe,alongwithourChinesecolleagues,areplanningtostartofficialtalksontheformation
ofcomprehensivetradeandeconomicpartnershipinEurasiawiththeparticipationoftheEuropeanUnion
statesandChina.IexpectthatthiswillbecomeoneofthefirststepstowardtheformationofamajorEurasian
partnership.WewillcertainlyresumethediscussionofthismajorprojectattheEasternEconomicForum
inVladivostokinearlySeptember.Colleagues,Iwouldliketotakethisopportunitytoinviteallofyoutotake
partinit.
Friends,theprojectIhavejustmentionedthegreaterEurasiaprojectis,ofcourse,openforEurope,
andIamconvincedthatsuchcooperationmaybemutuallybeneficial.Despiteallofthewell-knownproblems
inourrelations,theEuropeanUnionremainsRussiaskeytradeandeconomicpartner.Itisournext-door
neighbourandwearenotindifferenttowhatishappeninginthelivesofourneighbours,Europeancountries
andtheEuropeaneconomy.
ThechallengeofthetechnologicalrevolutionandstructuralchangesarenolessurgentfortheEUthan
forRussia.IalsounderstandourEuropeanpartnerswhentheytalkaboutthecomplicateddecisionsforEurope
thatweremadeatthetalksontheformationoftheTrans-Atlanticpartnership.Obviously,Europehasavast
potentialandastakeonjustoneregionalassociationclearlynarrowsitsopportunities.Under
thecircumstances,itisdifficultforEuropetomaintainbalanceandpreservespaceforagainfulmanoeuvre.
AstherecentmeetingswithrepresentativesoftheGermanandFrenchbusinesscircleshaveshowed,
Europeanbusinessiswillingandreadytocooperatewiththiscountry.Politiciansshouldmeetbusinesses
halfwaybydisplayingwisdom,andafar-sightedandflexibleapproach.WemustreturntrusttoRussian-
Europeanrelationsandrestorethelevelofourcooperation.
Werememberhowitallstarted.Russiadidnotinitiatethecurrentbreakdown,disruption,problems
andsanctions.Allouractionshavebeenexclusivelyreciprocal.Butwedontholdagrudge,astheysay,
andarereadytomeetourEuropeanpartnershalfway.However,thiscanbynomeansbeaone-waystreet.
LetmerepeatthatweareinterestedinEuropeansjoiningtheprojectforamajorEurasianpartnership.Inthis
contextwewelcometheinitiativeofthePresidentofKazakhstanonholdingconsultationsbetween
theEurasianEconomicUnionandtheEU.Yesterdaywediscussedthisissueatthemeetingwith
thePresidentoftheEuropeanCommission.
Russiahasmanagedtoresolvethemosturgentcurrentproblemsintheeconomy.Wehopegrowthwill
resumeinthenearfuture.Wehavemaintainedreservesandsubstantiallyreducedcapitaldrainbyfivetimes
comparedwiththefirstquarterof2016.Inflationisgoingdownaswell.Ithasfallenalmostinhalfifwecompare
severalmonthsin20142015withthesameperiodin20152016.Ibelievethatitispossibletobringinflation
downto45percentasearlyasinthemid-termperspective.
Inaddition,itisnecessarytograduallydecreasethebudgetdeficitandthedependenceonrevenuesfrom
hydrocarbonsandotherrawmaterials.Thisincludescuttingournon-oilandgasdeficitatleastinhalf
inthenext5to7years.
Thecurrentslowdownisaglobaltrend.
Akeyfactorthatpredeterminestheoverallcompetitivenessoftheeconomy,marketdynamics,GDPgrowth
andhigherwagesislaborproductivity.Weneedhigherlaborproductivityatlargeandmedium-sized
enterprises:inindustry,intheconstructionandthetransportsectorsandinagriculturenolessthan5
percentayear.Thisappearstobeachallengingandevenunattainablegoal,ifwelookatwhatishappening
heretoday.Atthesametime,theexamplesofnumerousenterprises,aswellasofentiremanufacturing
sectors,suchastheaircraftindustry,thechemicalindustry,pharmaceuticsandagriculture,showthatthis
goalisquitefeasibleandrealistic.
Wewilldeveloplegislation,taxregulatorsandtechnicalstandardstoincentivisecompaniestoraiselabour
productivityandintroducelabourandenergysavingtechnology.Withthegrowthoflabourproductivity,
inefficientemploymentwillinevitablyshrink,whichmeanswewillneedtosubstantiallyincreasethelabour
marketsflexibility,toofferpeoplenewopportunities.Wewillbeabletoresolvethisproblemprimarily
bycreatingmorejobsatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses.Thenumberofpeople(whatIamgoingtosayis
veryimportant)employedatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinessesshouldgrowfromtoday's18million
byatleast1.4millionby2020andbymorethan3millionby2025.Itwillbedifficulttoincreasesupport
forsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses,andstillhardertoconsistentlybuildanicheforitsoperation.Butit
needstobedone.
Ishouldaddthatourimportreplacementprogrammeisalsoaimedatmanufacturinggoodsthatare
competitiveontheglobalmarket.Andinthissense,Iwouldalsoliketostressthatimportreplacementis
animportantstageforexpandingexportsinsectorsotherthanrawmaterialsandfindingaplaceforour
companiesinglobalmanufacturingandtechnologicalalliancesandnotinsecondaryroles,butasstrong
andeffectivepartners.
Friends,wewillcontinuetofurtherliberaliseandimprovethebusinessclimate.Iknowagreatdealhasbeen
saidaboutthisatforumeventstodayandyesterday.Wewilltacklesystemicproblems,ofwhichwestillhave
plenty.Thisincludesimprovingtransparencyandbalancingrelationsbetweengovernmentagencies
andbusinesses.Theserelationsshouldbebuiltonunderstandingandmutualresponsibility,meticulous
observanceandcompliancewithlawsandrespectfortheinterestsofthestateandsociety,
andtheunconditionalvalueoftheinstitutionofprivateproperty.
Itisessentialtodrasticallyreduceillegalcriminalprosecutions.Furthermore,representativesofsecurity
andlawenforcementagenciesshouldbemadepersonallyliableforunjustifiedactionsleading
tothedestructionofabusinessenterprise.Ibelievethatthisliabilitycanbecriminal.
Irealizethatthisisaverysensitiveissue.Wecannotandshouldnotbindourlawenforcementagencieshand
andfoot.However,withoutadoubt,thereisaneedforbalancehere,forafirmbarriertoanyabusesofpower.
TheleadershipoftheProsecutorGeneralsOffice,theInvestigativeCommittee,theInteriorMinistry
andtheFederalSecurityServiceshouldcontinuouslymonitorthesituationonthegroundand,ifnecessary,
takemeasurestoimprovelegislation.
Iasktheworkinggrouponlawenforcementinentrepreneurialactivity,whichisheadedbyChiefofStaff
ofthePresidentialExecutiveOfficeSergeiIvanov,tofocusontheseissuesaswell.IshouldaddthatIhave
alreadysubmittedtoparliamentapackageofdraftlawspreparedbytheworkinggroup,designedtohumanise
theso-calledeconomicstatutes[oftheCriminalCode].Thatsaid,itisalsoimportanttoguaranteebusinesses
andallcitizenstherighttofairandimpartialdefenceincourt.
TheRussianjudicialcommunityhasdoneagooddealrecentlytoimprovethequalityofthecourtsystem.
ThemergingoftheSupremeandtheHigherArbitrationcourtshasplayedapositiveroleinensuring
theuniformityoflawenforcement.Ibelieveitisnecessarytomovefurthertowardenhancingtheresponsibility
ofjudgesandmakingthejudicialprocessmoretransparent.
Amajorroleincreatingafavorablebusinessenvironment,withoutadoubt,belongstoRussianregions.Iknow
thatthiswasdiscussedatforumeventsinthemorning,andtheresultsoftheannualnationalinvestment
climateratingswereannounced.Iwouldliketojoinincongratulatingthewinnersandremindyouthattheseare
TatarstanandtheBelgorodandKalugaregions.Iwouldalsoliketonotethesignificantprogressmade
bytheTula,Vladimir,Tyumen,Kirov,LipetskandOrelregions,andthecityofMoscow.
Whatstandsouthere?Judgingbytheresults,acoregroupofleadershasalreadyemerged,whoareinvariably
atthetopofrankings.Thenaturalquestionis:Wherearetheothers?IasktheGovernment,inconjunctionwith
businesscommunities,toconsideradditionalmechanismstorewardthebestregionaladministrativeteams.
Ontheotherhand,wewilltakeseriousmeasures,includingdismissals,withregardtoregionalleaderswhodo
notunderstandthatbusinesssupportisamajorresourceforregionalandnationaldevelopment.Iwouldlike
mycolleaguesintheregions,aboveall,regionalleaderstohearme.Wewillseriouslyanalysewhatis
happeninginthissphereineachRussianregionanddiscusstheissueindepthintheautumn.
Ladiesandgentlemen,IhavealreadytalkedaboutRussiasparticipationincooperativescientificresearch
projects,inparticularwithEuropeancountries.Itisessentialtoaddthatwehaveacoreadvantages
inphysics,mathematicsandchemistry.Asyouknow,recentlywehonouredscientistswhowontheNational
Award,whohavemadebrilliantbreakthroughsinbiology,geneticsandmedicine.Russianmicrobiologistshave
developed,forexample,aneffectivevaccineagainstEbola.Nationalcompaniesaregoingtobringanentireline
ofunmannedvehiclestothemarketandareworkingonenergydistributionandstorage,anddigitalsea
navigationsystems.Wehavepracticallyputinplaceatechnologicaldevelopmentmanagementsystem.What
doesthisentailandwhatwouldIliketosayinthiscontext?
First.TherecentlyformedTechnologyDevelopmentAgencywillhelpapplycurrentresearchtoreal
manufacturingandsetupjointventureswithforeignpartners.
Second.Anothermechanismwillbeinusestartingin2019.Majormanufacturerswillbemadelegallybound
tousethemostadvancedtechnologiesmeetingthehighestenvironmentalstandards.Hopefully,thiswillgive
aseriousboosttoindustrialmodernisation.Manyneighbouringcountriesintroducedsuchrequirementslong
ago.Wehavehadtoputoffthesechangesduetoproblemsintherealeconomicsectors,butwecantkeep
postponingitanymore.Ourbusinesscolleaguesknowthisandmustbeprepared.
Andfinally,third.TheNationalTechnologyInitiativecoversprojectsofthefuturebasedontechnologiesthatwill
createfundamentallynewmarketsinadecadeortwo.IwouldliketoasktheGovernmenttopromptlyremove
administrative,legislativeandotherobstaclesblockingthedevelopmentoffuturemarkets.Itisessential
tobackuptechnologicaldevelopmentwithfinancialresources.Therefore,thekeytaskfacingtheoverhauled
Vnesheconombankwillbetosupportlong-termprojects,attractiveprojectsinthishigh-techsector.
Weclearlyunderstandthatitispeoplewhocreateandusetechnologies.Talentedresearchers,qualified
engineersandworkersplayacrucialroleinmakingthenationaleconomycompetitive.Thereforeeducationis
somethingweshouldpayparticularattentiontointhenextfewyears.
Colleagues,obviouslytheissuesthatwearefacingcallfornewapproachestowarddevelopment
management,andherewearedeterminedtomakeactiveuseoftheprojectprinciple.Apresidentialcouncil
forstrategicdevelopmentandpriorityprojectswillbecreatedinthenearfuture.Itwillbeheadedbyyour
humbleservant,whilethecouncilpresidiumwillbeledbyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev.
Thecouncilwilldealwithkeyprojectsaimedateffectingstructuralchangesintheeconomyandthesocial
sphere,andincreasinggrowthrates.Ihavespokenaboutsomeoftheseprojectstoday:raisinglabour
productivity,thebusinessclimate,supportforsmallandmedium-sizedbusiness,andexportsupport,among
others.
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehaveagreed
upon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,andthenIwill
widenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.Westartedalittlebitlate,
sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.
PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnionsanctions
andUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildupforces
instatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-grade,lower-
levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?
Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpectedoverall
prosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speakinginmodernterms:
economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,aggressionofinternational
terror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitantsintheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,
andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupportfromourpartnersinourstrugglewith
theseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupportfortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedo
notacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,onlyatthetechnological.
Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrativebackup.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATOcontinues
toexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.Montenegroisbecoming
a[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionisbeingtotallyignored.
Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]from
theABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnitedStates
foragoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.
Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquitthetreaty,
sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensivearms,andwe
assumeitisnotaimedagainstus.
Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwasstruggling
withitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,tortured
byterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainourarsenals,let
alonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefenceforcesunilaterally
whileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.
AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.WhathasbecomeoftheIranian
nuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,stepbystep,oneafter
another,andsoon.
Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.Theyfervently
supportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?Chaos.
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenotcoordinated
thensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekoutabalance
ofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,butitis
theonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.
Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArabSpring,
theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?Ihaveoften
spokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatisinpowernow
wouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.Wewouldhaveworkedwith
themaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresidentYanukovych.
speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,simply
hadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,ratchetingup
tensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistenceoftheNorthAtlantic
bloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthisorganisationnecessary
inthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirectedagainst?
Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeachother,
thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperationandthesearch
forcompromise.(Applause.)
isthewayout?
IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthroughthenight.
Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreedultimatelythat
politicalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.
Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutionalamendments
thathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobeseen.Thelaw
onaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhavebeenputinto
practice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeintoeffect.Thereshould
havebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasneversignedbythepresident,it
hasnoeffect.
Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduringananti-
terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountryholdelection
campaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?
They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarianrestoration.
Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolenceonthefrontlinesisjust
anexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachotherofopeningfire.Whydoyou
thinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,ItisUkrainiangovernmentforces,
theUkrainianarmy.
Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisisagood
enoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitutethefoundation
ofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedonetoimprove
security.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelackofsecurity
inthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)
FareedZakaria:Therearesomanyareastocoverwithyou,MrPresident,soletmegototheMiddle
East,whereRussiahashadaforcefulinterventiontobolstertheAssadregime.PresidentAssadnowsays
thathisgoalistotakebackeverysquareinchofhisterritory.DoyoubelievethatthesolutioninSyriais
thattheAssadregimeshouldtakebackandgoverneverysquareinchofSyria?
VladimirPutin:IthinkthattheproblemsofSyria,ofcourse,concernprimarilytheanti-terroriststruggle,
butthereismoretoit.ItgoeswithoutsayingthattheSyrianconflictisrootedincontradictionswithin
Syriansociety,andPresidentBasharal-Assadunderstandsthisverywell.Thetaskisnotjusttoexpand
controlovervariousterritories,althoughthisisveryimportant.Thepointistoensuretheconfidence
oftheentiresocietyandtrustbetweendifferentpartsofthissociety,andtoestablishonthisfoundation
amodernandefficientgovernmentthatwillbetrustedbythecountrysentirepopulation.Andpolitical
negotiationsaretheonlyroadtothis.Wehaveurgedthismorethanonce.Presidental-Assadalsospoke
aboutthisheacceptsthisprocess.
Whatneedstobedonetoday?ItisnecessarytojoinmoreactivelytheprocessofformingthenewConstitution
andtoconduct,onthisbasis,futureelections,bothpresidentialandparliamentary.WhenPresidental-Assad
wasinMoscow,wespokeaboutthiswithhimandhefullyagreedwiththis.Moreover,itisextremelyimportant
toconducttheelectionsunderstrictinternationalcontrol,withtheparticipationoftheUnitedNations.
YesterdaywediscussedthisissueindetailwithMrdeMisturaandtheUNSecretary-General.Theyallagree
withthis,butweneedaction.Wehopeverymuchthatourpartners,primarilyfromtheUnitedStates,willwork
withtheiralliesthatsupporttheoppositiontoencourageconstructivecooperationwiththeSyrianauthorities.
Whatdowemeanbythis?Ingeneral,whenIaskmycolleagues:Whyareyoudoingthis?theyreply:
Toasserttheprinciplesofdemocracy.Presidental-Assadsregimeisnotdemocraticandthetriumph
ofdemocracymustbeensured.Fine.Isdemocracyeverywherethere?No,notyetbutdemocracyshould
existinSyria.Ok.Andhowdoyoumakesocietydemocratic?Isitonlypossibletoachievethisbyforce
ofarmsorsimplybyforce?No,thismaybedoneonlywiththehelpofdemocraticinstitutions
andprocedures.Andwhataretheyallabout?Thereisnomoredemocraticwayofformingagovernmentthan
electionsonthebasisoffundamentallaw:aConstitutionthatisformulatedinaclearway,thatistransparent
andacceptedbytheoverwhelmingmajorityofsociety.PasstheConstitutionandholdelectionsonitsbasis.
Whatsbadaboutthis,especiallyiftheyareheldunderinternationalcontrol?
Occasionallywehearthatsomecountriesoftheregiondonotfullyunderstandwhatdemocracyis.Dowe
wanttoreplaceoneundemocraticregimewithanotherundemocraticone?Andifwestillwanttopromote
theprincipleofdemocracyletsdothisbydemocraticmeans.Butconsideringthisisacomplicatedprocess
andresultswillnotcometomorroworthedayaftertomorrowbutwillrequiretime,whilewestillneedtodo
somethingtoday,Iagreewiththeproposalsofourpartners,primarilyourAmericanpartnersthatsuggest
(Idontknow,maybeImsayingtoomuchalthough,ontheotherhand,thisUSproposalisknownintheregion,
andthenegotiatorsofbothsidesthegovernmentandtheoppositionarefamiliarwithitandIconsiderit
absolutelyacceptable),theysuggestedconsideringthepossibilityofbringingrepresentativesoftheopposition
intoexistingpowerstructures,forinstance,theGovernment.Itisnecessarytothinkaboutwhatpowersthis
Governmentwillhave.
However,itisimportantnottogotoofar.Itisnecessarytoproceedfromthecurrentrealitiesandtorefrainfrom
declaringunfeasible,unrealisticgoals.ManyofourpartnersaresayingthatAssadshouldgo.Todaytheyare
sayingno,letsrestructuregoverninginstitutionsinsuchandsuchaway,butinpracticaltermsitwillalso
meanhisdeparture.Butthisisalsounrealistic.Therefore,itisnecessarytoactcarefully,stepbystep,
graduallywinningtheconfidenceofallsidestotheconflict.
Ifthishappens,andIthinkthiswillhappeninanyeventandthesoonerthebetter,itwillbepossibletogo
furtherandspeakbothaboutsubsequentelectionsandafinalsettlement.Themainpointistoprevent
thecountryscollapse.Andifthingscontinuetogoastheyaretoday,collapsewillbecomeinevitable.Andthis
istheworst-casescenariobecausewecannotassumethatafterthecountryscollapsesomequasi-state
formationswillco-existinpeaceandharmony.No,thiswillbeadestabilisingfactorfortheregionandtherest
oftheworld.
this!Dontyou?
Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewillwork
withanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,theylecture
everyoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthereare
democratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstandingbehind
thoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehavedebates
withourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:Donot
meddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:Wellthen,do
notmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.
internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreatentojail
them.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americaisagreat
power,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnitedStatesandwe
arepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.Therewillbea[new]head
ofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomicprocessesatwork
intheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,andwealsoneedit.Butwe
donotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,andpreventingEuropefrombuilding
arelationshipwithus.
HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.Itcouldnot
carelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehavenoimpactonit.
TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansaretellingtheirpartners:
Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithourcountry
andhelpbuildamoresecureworld.
Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]Gromyko.
(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?
IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icanevensay
thatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveraloccasions,
heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.IrememberthisandIam
gratefultohim.
AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,there
issomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-USrelationsorwith
nationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.
Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjobandafterward.
Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibilitytheybegintotalk
andthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesenseofresponsibility
oftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworlddependstoday,thatthis
senseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperatewithRussiaand,Iwouldlike
torepeat,buildamoresecureworld.
FareedZakaria:PresidentPutin,letmefinallyaskyouonequestionaboutnewsreportsaboutRussian
athletes.TherearenowtwomajorinvestigationsthathaveshownthatRussianathleteshaveengaged
indopingonamassivescale,andthattherehasbeenasystematicevasionanddoctoringoftestingandlab
samples.AndIwasjustwonderingwhatyoureactiontothesereportsis.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotunderstandwhatkindofprogrammeitistotamperwiththesamplesthatwere
collectedfortests?Ifsamplesarecollectedtheyareimmediatelytransferredtointernationalorganisations
forstorageandwehavenothingtodowiththem.Samplesarecollectedandtakensomewhere,
toLausanneorwherever,Idonotknowwhere,buttheyarenotonRussianterritory.Theycanbe
opened,re-checked,andthisiswhatspecialistsaredoingnow.
DopingisnotonlyaRussianproblem.Itisaproblemoftheentiresportsworld.Ifsomebodytriestopoliticise
somethinginthissphere,Ithinkthisisabigmistake,becausejustlikeculture,forexample,sportcannotbe
politicised.Thesearethebridgesthatbringpeople,nationsandstatesclosertogether.Thisistheway
toapproachit,nottrytoforgesomeanti-Russianoranti-whateverpolicyonthisbasis.
AsfortheRussianauthorities,Icanassureyou,wearecategoricallyagainstalldopingforseveralreasons.
First,asaformeramateurathlete,Icantellyou,andIthinkthattheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeoplewillagree
withthis:ifweknowthereisdoping,itsnotinterestingtowatchtheeventmillionsoffansloseinterest
inthesport.
Second,nolessimportant,andmaybeevenmostimportant,thereisthehealthoftheathletesthemselves.
Youcantjustifyanythingthatdamageshealth.Thisiswhywehavecombatedandwillcontinuetocombat
dopinginsportonthenationallevel.
Furthermore,asfarasIknow,theProsecutorGeneralsOfficeandtheInvestigativeCommitteehavebeen
closelylookingintoallfactsreportedinthemedia,amongothers.Simply,thismustnotbeturnedinto
acampaign,especiallyacampaigndisparagingsport,includingRussiansport.
Next,thethirdpointIwouldliketomake.Thereisalegalconceptthatsaysresponsibilitycanonlybe
individual.Collectiveresponsibilitycannotbeimposedonallathletesorathletesofacertainsportsfederationif
certainindividualshavebeencaughtdoping.Anentireteamcannotbeheldresponsibleforthosewhohave
committedthisviolation.Ibelievethatthisisanabsolutelynatural,correctapproach.
However,dopingisnottheonlyproblemtoday.Thereareplentyofproblemsinsport.Euro2016isunderway.
Ibelievethatlessattentionisbeingpaidtofootballthantobrawlingbetweenfans.ThisisverysadandIregret
this,butheretooweshouldalwaysproceedfromsomegeneralcriteria.Toreiterate,responsibility
formisconductshouldbeindividualisedasmuchaspossibleandtheapproachtowardperpetratorsshouldbe
thesame.
Euro2016beganwithahigh-profilecase:afightbetweenRussianandBritishfans.Thisisabsolutely
outrageous.Granted,Idonotknowhow200RussianfanswereabletopummelseveralthousandBritons.Ido
notunderstand.Butinanycase,lawenforcementagenciesshouldtakethesameapproachtowardall
perpetrators.
Thisisthewaywehaveorganisedthisworkandwillcontinuetocombatdopingandenforcedisciplineamong
fans.Wewillworkwiththesefanassociations.Iverymuchhopethatthereareplentyofintelligent,sensible
peopleamongthefans,whoreallylovesportandwhounderstandthatviolationsdonothingtosupporttheir
teambut,onthecontrary,causedamagetotheteamandtosport.However,agreatdealhasyettobedone
here,includinginconjunctionwithour[foreign]colleagues.
Iwouldliketostressthattherehasbeenabsolutelynosupportandcanbeabsolutelynosupportforviolations
insport,letalonedopingviolations,atthestatelevel.Wehaveworkedandwillcontinuetoworkwithall
internationalorganisationsinthissphere.
<>
ThisisthefirstSt.PetersburgforumnotshunnedbyWesternpoliticalelitesinacoupleofyearsRussiawantstoshowWestern
businessthattherearepossibilitiesforreformThesanctionshavenotbeenremoved,theMinskagreementsnotfulfilled,butthere
hasbeenacertainloweringoftensionsTheKremliniscautiouslyrehabilitatingthesystemicliberalsKudrinhasinformalstatus
asthemainreformer,withassistancefromGrefVlast,notveryconvincingly,ismakingnoisesaboutimprovingconditionsfor
privatebusinessGestureshavebeenmadetoeasetensionswiththeWestSavchenko,forexample,wasreleasedtheresa
certainwearinesswithconfrontationTherehasbeensomemovementawayfromtheconservativetrenddomestically
Pavlenskiyhasbeenreleased(http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-pavlensky-artist-fined-cultural-site-fsb/27786266.html)...The
messagetoWesterninvestorsisclearRussiadoesnotwanttobeNorthKoreaorevenBelarusRussianeedsdirectinvestment
andbudgetproblemsarepushingvlasttowardmakingapoliticaldecisiononstructuralreforms
ThewearinessofbothRussiaandtheWestwithsanctionsinthemid-termcouldatleastleadtotheirweakening.Thedeclineofthe
economyhassloweddownandsomeoptimistsexpectgrowthbytheendoftheyearTheUkrainecrisiscouldberoutinized,
pushedtothebackburnerinfavorofcooperatingoncombattingterrorismPutinwantstolowertensionswiththeAmericans
Yetthearbitrarybehaviorofcourts,taxterrorism,corruption,andnightmaringbusinesseshaveonlybecomeworseAverage
investorswithoutspecialconnectionsarewaitingforasignofvlastsintensionsandofamoretransparenteconomicpolicyIts
doubtfulthatwillhappenandforeignbusinesssurelyunderstandsthatForeigninvestorswanttoknowaboutconcrete
economicdevelopmentplans,taxpolicy,aboutwhetherGlazyevistakenseriouslyandwhetherKudrinisaroundjustforwindow
dressing.Arethesilovikytakingpartindiscussionsoneconomicpolicytemporarilyoristheyheretostay?
Putinwantstheeconomytoimprove,butwithoutchanginganythinginstitutionallyThewaytohaveinfluenceinRussiais
througharelationshipwithoneofPutinsfriends,whooftenhavemoreinfluencethanministers.Soinvestorswanttoknowwhata
particularpersonsaccesstoPutinreallyis,whatkindofinfluenceapersonmighthaveonaministerAndinvestorsseeasociety
thatisdistrustful,evenhatefultowardtheWest,onewhereoppositionpoliticalfiguresareindanger,whereonehastobewaryof
provocationsbycompetitorsAndtheYukoscase,theMagnitskiyaffair,andthecaseagainsttheownersandmanagersof
Domodedovoairportarestillverymuchonthemindsofforeigninvestors
InRussia,ifyoumoveoneway,youloseyourbusiness,anotherandyouloseyourlife.Ifyoumovejustright,youcanbecomea
billionaire
http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_18809/all
RussiasconciliatorygesturestoAmericaarebeingmadefortworeasons:One,becauseitistheAmericansblockingEuropean
revisionismregardingRussiaandtwo,becauseMoscowisworriedaboutreputationalscandalstheremaybemoretocome,
provokingaspiltintheRussianelite
HTTP://WWW.YAHOO.COM/NEWS/GERMANY-SLAMS-NATO-WARMONGERING-RUSSIA-115515814.HTML?REF=GS
GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierhascriticisedNATOforhavingabellicosepolicytowardsRussia,describingitas
"warmongering",theGermandailyBildreported.
SteinmeierpointedtothedeploymentofNATOtroopsnearborderswithRussiainthemilitaryalliance'sBalticandeastEuropean
memberstates.
"Whatweshouldavoidtodayisinflamingthesituationbywarmongeringandstompingboots,"SteinmeiertoldBildinaninterviewto
bepublishedSunday.
"Anyonewhothinksyoucanincreasesecurityinthealliancewithsymbolicparadesoftanksneartheeasternborders,ismistaken,"
Germany'stopdiplomatadded.
NATOhadannouncedonMondaythatitwoulddeployfourbattalionstoEstonia,Latvia,LithuaniaandPolandtocounteramore
assertiveRussia,aheadofalandmarksummitinWarsawnextmonth.
AllfourcountrieswereonceruledfromMoscowandremaindeeplysuspiciousofRussianintentions,especiallyafterRussia's
annexationofCrimeafromUkrainein2014.
InaninterviewwithBildonThursday,NATOchiefJensStoltenbergsaidRussiaisseekingtocreate"azoneofinfluencethrough
militarymeans".
"WeareobservingmassivemilitarisationatNATOborders--intheArctic,intheBaltic,fromtheBlackSeatotheMediterranean
Sea,"hetoldthenewspaper.
StoltenberghasstressedthatNATOdoesnotseekconfrontationwithRussiaandwantsaconstructivedialoguebutthatitwould
defendthe28alliesagainstanythreat
RussiabitterlyopposesNATO'sexpansionintoitsSoviet-erasatellitesandlastmonthsaiditwouldcreatethreenewdivisionsinits
southwestregiontomeetwhatitdescribedasadangerousmilitarybuild-upalongitsborders.
Senttime: 06/18/201610:45:32AM
FW:[ITEMSOFINTEREST/FRIAFTERNOON/EST][ODDD]Fwd:UkraineWP,WH,NYT,(2),USOSCE,ODremarks[atUA'ReportCard'
Subject: Conference],WoE.COMPARE&CONTRAST:Vlad'sFavFilmmakerOlieStonevs.3timeOscarwinnerMarkHarrison'UkraineRevof
Dign...
Sent:Friday,June17,20161:46PM
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFINTEREST/FRIAFTERNOON/EST][ODDD]Fwd:UkraineWP,WH,NYT,(2),USOSCE,ODremarks[atUA
'ReportCard'Conference],WoE.COMPARE&CONTRAST:Vlad'sFavFilmmakerOlieStonevs.3timeOscarwinnerMarkHarrison
'UkraineRevofDign...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Subject:[ITEMSOFINTEREST/FRIAFTERNOON/EST]Fwd:UkraineWP,WH,NYT,(2),USOSCE,ODremarks[atUA
'ReportCard'Conference],WoE.COMPARE&CONTRAST:Vlad'sFavFilmmakerOlieStonevs.3timeOscarwinner
MarkHarrison'UkraineRevofDignity'[MB]BreakingNews:Russianathletestoremainbannedfrominternational
competition
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:UkraineWP,WH,NYT,(2),USOSCE,ODremarks,WoE
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
TheWashingtonPost
APInterview:NewUkrainePMvowsreform,blamesRussia
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ap-interview-new-ukraine-pm-vows-reform-blames-russia/2016/06/16/ee95a4b4-33f7-
11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html
June16at4:14PM
WASHINGTONUkrainesnewprimeministervowedThursdaytorootoutcorruptionandurgedRussiatoabidebyapeace
agreementmeanttoendatwo-yearconflictbetweenMoscow-backedseparatistsandUkrainianforces.
VolodymyrGroysmanspoketoTheAssociatedPressinaninterviewonedayaftermeetingwithVicePresidentJoeBidenand
otherU.S.officials.BidenannouncedthattheObamaadministration,astaunchsupporterofUkraine,waspledging$220millionin
assistancethisyeartohelptheformerSovietnationimplementreforms.
ChangehasbeenslowinthetwoyearssincethepreviousUkrainiangovernmentfellamidpro-Westernprotests.Ukrainehasbeen
shakenbyRussiasannexationofCrimeaandlostmorethan9,300peopleinfightingwiththeseparatistsintheeasternpartofthe
country.Butcriticssaydomesticchangesalsohavestalledamidpoliticalinfightingandsaycorruptionremainsamajorproblem.
Intheinterview,GroysmandismissedthecriticismandblamedRussiaformostofUkrainesills.
UkraineisavictimofaggressionfromtheRussianFederation,saidthe38-year-oldGroysman,whosepastexperienceincludes
servingasmayorofaprovincialcityandbeingparliamentspeaker.
Groysmansaidhewasworkingtoderegulatetheeconomy,makethejudicialbranchmoreindependent,increasegoodgovernance
andtransparency,andprivatizestateenterprises.Wemusttargetnotonlythosewhoarecorrupt,butalsothesystemsothatnew
corruptiondoesnotreplaceoldcorruption,hesaid.
Groysmansaidhewashopefulthatinthenearterm,Ukrainewouldreceivethenext$1.7billionloaninstallmentfromthe
InternationalMonetaryFundaspartofa$17billionbailoutpackage.
GroysmanaccusedRussiaofviolatingashakycease-fireunderapeaceaccordnegotiatedin2015byRussia,Ukraine,France
andGermany.GroysmansaidRussiamustensurethatalltheweaponsineasternUkrainearepulledbackandthatfightingstops
completelybeforeUkrainepassesthenecessarylegislationtoholdanelectionintheseparatist-heldareas,asstipulatedbythe
accord.
NormalizationoftheDonbassnowfullydependsondecisionsmadebytheRussianFederation,Groysmansaid,referringtothe
DonetskregionineasternUkraine.
MoscowdeniesitisbackingtherebelsinUkraineandsaysKievmustfirstholdthevoteinordertoadvancethepeaceprocess.
TheWhiteHouse
OfficeofthePressSecretary
ForImmediateRelease
June15,2016
FACTSHEET:U.S.AssistancetoUkrainesinceFebruary2014
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/15/fact-sheet-us-assistance-ukraine-february-2014
DuringhismeetingwithUkrainianPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysman,VicePresidentJoeBidenannouncedtodayin
Washingtonthat,pendingCongressionalnotification,theWhiteHouseplanstocommit$220millioninnewassistanceto
Ukrainethisyearinsupportofeconomic,political,andenergyreforms.Thisassistancepackagewillcontinueoursupportfor
Ukraineseffortstostrengthendemocraticinstitutionsandtheruleoflaw,reinforcethefoundationsforsustainableeconomic
growth,andrespondtohumanitarianneeds.ThenewassistancewillalsosupportotherkeyareasofPrimeMinisterGroysmans
ambitiousreformagenda,including:
Acceleratingcustomsreform,includingbyprovidinglegal,regulatory,infrastructure,ande-customssupportcreatinganew
customsmonitoringcenterandassistinginimplementingreformsoftherecruitment,selection,vetting,training,andequippingof
newcustomsofficers,basedonthesuccessfulpatrolpolicemodel.
Fightingcorruptionthroughsupportforkeyjusticesectorreforms,includingimplementationoftheconstitutionalamendments
adoptedbytheRadaonJune2andProsecutorGeneralYuriyLutsenkosreformagenda,andbyexpandingourpartnershipswith
theNationalAnti-CorruptionBureau,SpecializedAnti-CorruptionProsecutorsOffice,andNationalPolice,aswellassupportfor
independentmediaandcivilsociety.
ExtendingdecentralizationacrossUkraine,helpingtoimproveservicedelivery,increasecitizenengagementandoversight,
andraisepublicawarenessofthebenefitsofreforms.
Expandingsupportforenergysecuritythroughprogramsthatestablishcompetitiveandtransparentgasandelectricity
marketsinlinewithEUstandards,diversifysourcesofenergy,improveenergyefficiency,supportprivatization,andenhance
cybersecurity.
Inaddition,onJune9,theOverseasPrivateInvestmentCorporation(OPIC)approvedupto$62.5millioninfinancialsupport
totwoprivateequityfundsthatwillinvestinUkraineacrossanumberofsectorsincludingagribusiness,healthcare,
infrastructure,retail,consumergoods,andrealestate.ThesetwoinvestmentsareinadditiontoOPICstotalexposureto
Ukraineof$185million,including$73millionininsurancecoverage,$97millioninfinanceexposure,andanestimated$15
millioninindirectexposuretoUkrainethroughothermulticountryinvestmentfunds.
TheUnitedStatesisalsohelpingUkraineimproveitsbusinessenvironmenttoattractmoreforeigninvestmentthrough
implementationofbankingreforms,simplifiedregulations,enhancedinvestorrights,andgreatertransparency.TheUnitedStates
willcontinuetoworkcloselywiththeUkrainianGovernmenttohelpensurethatthepracticalexperienceofU.S.industryis
takenintoaccountinUkrainesongoingeffortstoprioritizeandimplementreformsthatwillimprovethebusinessclimateand
attractprivatecapital.
Theseinitiativesandnewcommitmentsarepartofmorethan$1.3billioninforeignassistancetheU.S.governmenthas
committedtoUkrainesince2014toadvancereforms,strengthendemocraticinstitutionsandcivilsociety,stimulateeconomic
growth,strengthenitsdefenses,andhelpUkrainemoresafelymonitorandsecureitsbordersanddefenditsterritorialintegrity.
Thisincludesmorethan$112millioninhumanitarianassistanceprovidedtodatetoconflict-affectedciviliansinUkraine.This
fundinghelpsprovideemergencyshelter,reliefcommodities,protectionactivitiesforchildrenandtheelderly,psychosocial
support,repairtowaterinfrastructure,andsupportforshort-termjobcreationforinternallydisplacedpersons.
TheU.S.governmenthasalsoprovidedUkraine$2billioninloanguarantees,andsignedanagreementonJune3toallowfor
theissuanceofathird,upto$1billionloanguaranteeinthecomingmonths,pendingcompletionofcertainconditionsandthe
Congressionalnotificationprocess.TheseloanguaranteeshelpUkrainestabilizeitseconomyandprotectthemostvulnerable
householdsfromtheimpactofneededeconomicadjustment.
OfficeoftheVicePresident
ForImmediateRelease
June15,2016
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/15/readout-vice-presidents-meeting-prime-minister-volodymyr-groysman
ReadoutoftheVicePresidentsMeetingwithPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysmanofUkraine
VicePresidentBidenmettodayattheWhiteHousewithUkrainianPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysmantodiscussUkraine's
reformagendaandtheimplementationoftheMinskagreements.TheVicePresidentexpressedstrongsupportforthePrime
Minister'sambitiousreformeffortsandcommendedhimfortheboldreformstepshisCabinethasalreadytakeninitsinitialtwo
monthsinoffice.InsupportofUkraine'seffortstopursueadditionaleconomic,political,andenergyreforms,theVicePresident
announcedthat,pendingcompletionofCongressionalnotificationprocedures,theWhiteHouseplanstocommit$220millionin
newassistancetoUkrainethisyear.TheVicePresidentalsoexpresseddeepconcernaboutthedeterioratingsecuritysituationin
easternUkraineandhighlightedtheimportanceofacceleratingimplementationoftheMinskagreements.TheVicePresident
reiteratedthatsanctionsagainstRussiawillremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitsMinskcommitments.
ODRemarks:
Belowpleasefindmyproximate,unpolishedremarksatyesterdaysUS-UAWorkingGroupYearlySummit
Conference.
Ifyoudonthavethetimeorinclinationtoreaditinitsentirety,pleaseconsideratleastlookingatthelastsection,as
thisisoneoftheissuesthathasbeenonmymindalotlately.Thereweretrulymanysubstantive,interestingremarks
onavarietyofsubjectsattheconference,includingUkrainianPrimeMinisterHroysmans,whoopenedupthe
conference.
IbelievethetranscriptwillbeupatsomepointontheCenterforUS-UkrainianRelationswebsite.Butyoullhaveto
dowithjustminefornowastheyretheonlyoneIhaveavailable.
UkraineReportCardConferenceJune16,2016Remarks
OrestDeychakiwsky
USHelsinkiCommission
LetmeofferaverybroadbrushoverviewjusttogiveyouasenseofthehumanrightssituationinUkraine,asonecouldspend
hoursonthistopic.Illbreakitinto3partsCrimeatheoccupiedterritoriesofDonbasandfinally,Kyiv-controlledUkraine.
Crimea:RussiasoccupationofCrimeahasresultedinadeplorablehumanrightssituationaswellasotherseriousconsequences
thatcontinuetothisday.Latest,June3UNHumanRightsReportonUkrainecharacterizesitashavingsharplydeterioratedin
lasttwoyears.
Humanrightsandfundamentalfreedomsremainseverelycurtailed.Latestreportsestimatethatupto100,000Crimeanshaveleft
thepeninsula.Weveseenanextensivecampaignofintimidationtosuppressdissentandoppositiontotheoccupation,including
kidnappings,disappearances,physicalabuse,anddeportations,detentions,intimidation.Violationsofcivil,political,social,
economic,religiousandculturalrightsarewidespread.ThemajorityofvictimshavebeenCrimeanTatarsaswellasethnic
UkrainiansandotherswhoopposeRussianoccupation.EGExpressionsofUkrainianidentityandtheuseoflanguageare
discouragedandbanned,includingtheclosingofUkrainianschools,bookburningsorbookdestructionashappenedatthe
UkrainianNGOProsvitainSevastopolafewmonthsago.YoualsohadarecentbanonpublicgatheringsinSimferopol.
Russiananti-extremismandanti-terrorismlawshavebeenusedtocriminalizenon-violentbehaviorandstiflefreespeech.These
lawsprovideforimprisonmentforjournalistsandordinarycitizensfordisagreeingwiththefactthatCrimeabelongstoRussiaorfor
callsforitsreturntoUkraine.Justafewweeksago,aprominentTatarjournalistwaswarnedbyCrimeanprosecutorsover
extremistviewsforwritingabouttheplightofTatarchildrenwhoseparentswerearrested.
Morebroadly,thosewhorefusetoacceptcompulsoryRussiancitizenshiphavebeenharassedanddiscriminatedagainst,including
throughthedenialofhealthcareandsocialservices.
Thesituationhasnotimprovedinrecentmonths,especiallywithrespecttotheCrimeanTatarsWeveseenthebanningofthe
Mejlisasanextremistorganization,arrestsoftopCTleaderIlmiUmerovandjustlastweektheextensionofthedetentionof
ErvenIbragimovandothersonfictitiousextremismorterrorismchargesseizures,detentions,harassment,intimidationofdozensof
otherCrimeanTataractivists.Wehaveseenraidsonmosques,schoolsandhomes.Weveseenthesurrealtrialandsentencing
justafewdaysagoto10yearsimprisonmentinCrimeaofMaidanactivistAndriyKolomiyets,aswellastheearlierimprisonments
inRussiaofCrimeansandstiffsentencesonabsurdchargesoffilm-makerOlegSentsov,OleksanderKolchenkoandothers.
Thankfully,oneoftheothers,HennadyAfanasiev,wasreleasedafewdaysagoaspartofaprisonerexchange.
OccupiedTerritoriesoftheDonbas
ThehumanrightssituationhereisevenmoreappallingthaninCrimea.First,10,000deadand20,000wounded.Humanrightsof
thesome3millionpeoplecontinuetobetrampleduponbytheRussianproxyseparatistauthoritiesofthesemi-functional(at
best)so-calledDonetskandLuhanskPeoplesRepublics.AccordingtotheJune3UNHumanRightsReport,theyhave
imposedanarbitrarysystemofrules,establishedanetworkofplacesofdeprivationoflibertywheredetaineesaretorturedand
ill-treated,andcrackeddownondissent.(Forsomerealchillingpersonalaccounts2015SurvivingHellReport)
Andthis,fromtheUNReport,sumsitupverywell:Subjectedtounaccountableruleandexcludedfromthelegalsystem
applyingtotherestofUkraine,thepopulationlivingintheterritoriescontrolledbythearmedgroupshasbeeneffectivelydenied
basicprotectionanddeprivedofbasichumanrightsandfreedoms.Indeed,theprioritiesforthethuggishotamanrulersappearto
besmugglingandsellingoffstateassets.ThatswhyImskepticalastowhetherDonbaselectionscalledforintheMinsk
agreementscantakeplaceanytimesoonunlessthereisaradicalchangeinstatusquo--evenassumingthesecuritysituationwas
tostabilizetoallowforsuchelections--whichinitselfisahugeif.Fordemocraticelections,youneedanenvironmentwhere
thereisalevelplayingfieldforallpartiesandcandidates,andforthatyouneedbasicfreedomsofassociation,assembly,
expression,mediaandsemblanceofruleoflaw.
Russian-separatistforcesviolationsofcease-fireandMinskhashumanitarianimplicationsaswellinshort,theycausealotof
suffering.TheeconomicsituationintheDonbasisdifficultandgettingworse.Timedoesnotpermitdelvingintothehumanitarian
situation,butitisserious.MillionsofUkrainiansareinneedofhumanitarianassistance.Vulnerablegroupsespeciallysuffering
children,elderly,minoritygroups,includingtheRoma.Itsespeciallydifficultincommunitiesalongthelineofcontactonboth
sides.Now,arguably,thedismalhumanrightssituationhasimprovedslightlygiventheoverallreductionofhostilitiessince
September2015andthefactthatmostpro-Ukrainianactivistshaveleft,butIwouldntmaketoomuchofitgiventhearbitrariness
andabsenceofruleoflawandlackofhumanrightsprotectionsfortheresidentsthere.Youneverknowwhenthingscouldget
worseandgetworsequickly,especiallyasviolencepicksupandwehaveseenanuptickinthelastmonth.
Ukraine(Kyivcontrolled):
OverallUkraineiscategorizedaspartlyfreeintheauthoritativeFreedomHouserankings,whichithasbeenthroughoutmost
ofitsindependenceexceptduringtheYuschenkoyearswhenitwasfree.Althoughitsascloseasyoucangettothefree
category.AlthoughcomparingthepartsofUkrainecontrolledbyKyivwiththeRussianandseparatistcontrolledpartsislike
comparingnightandday,mainlandUkraineisnotwithouthumanrightsshortcomings.BetterthanunderYanukovych?Of
course.Clearly,sincetheMaidan,Ukrainianshavegainedgreaterfreedomtoexerciseindividualliberties.
TheJune3UNreportsumsupwhatmaybeUkrainesmostsignificanthumanrightsproblemthus:Individualsdetainedby
Ukrainianauthoritiesinconnectionwiththearmedconflicthavebeentorturedandill-treated,andcontinuetofacesystematic
violationsoftheirdueprocessandfairtrialrights.Thisisnotnearthescaleofthatintheoccupiedterritories.Plusthereare
someeffortstobringperpetratorstojustice,atleastinmilitary.Unfortunately,lastmonth,UNanti-torturemonitorswereforcedto
suspendavisittodetentionfacilitiesinUkraineduetoSBUobstruction,butthankfully,sincethen,aUkraine-UNjointgrouphas
createdtomonitorthesefacilities.Now,itsnosurprisethatwartendstoexacerbatehumanrightsproblems,evenbythevictimsof
aggression.Notwithstanding,ifUkrainesgovernmentistryingtodemonstratethatitcouldbeabastionofEuropeanvalues,it
needstodobetter.
Also,therearesomecriticismsregardingmediafreedoms.WhileimprovedsinceYanukovych,therearestillconstraints,and
Ukrainiangovernmentoftenfailstorespondtoattacksonmediafreedomsandhaspassedsomelawsandbansthatcouldlimit
freedomofinformationsomeofthemclearlylinkedtothewar.Thishastobeseenthecontextofbalancingsecuritywithfree
speechachallengeforanysocietybutbottomlineisthatRussianaggressionshouldnotbeusedtosacrificemediafreedoms.
And,amongotherhumanrightsconcerns,weveseennoprogressinbringingperpetratorsofMaidanshootingstojustice,although
someprogressininvestigations.
HumanRights/DemocracyImplicationsofDonbasfuture:
AswedebatethefuturestatusoftheoccupiedterritorieswithinanyMinskorpost-Minskprocess,letskeepinmindthatwere
alsotalkingaboutthelivesandfuturesofmillionsofUkrainiancitizens.SomeexpertsandUkrainianpoliticiansappeartobegiving
upontheDonbas,eithertemporarilyorforgoodandoften,temporaryhasawayofbecomingforgood.Irecognize
argumentsforthisapproach(forinstance,thetremendouseconomiccostsofre-integrationorthepossiblepoliticalvulnerabilities
toUkraineofre-integration)aswellasargumentsagainst(forexample,givingupontheDonbaswouldweakenUkraines
territorialintegrityandsovereigntyandtheinternationalnormsandprinciplesthatundergirditandcouldhavenegativeimplications
forUkrainesfuture).ButwhatIdonthearaboutsomuchinthediscussionofthisissue--andasthisisafterallapanelonhuman
rightsanddemocracy--iswhathappenstothesome3millionofUkrainiancitizensremaininginoccupiedDonbas?Letsnot
forgetthatiftheyarentre-integrated,theywillcontinuetoliveinmiseryandsuffering.Humanrightswillnotberespected.Ruleof
lawwillnotmagicallyappear.Democracywillnotflourish.WhateverKyivsimperfections,youcanbetrespectforhumanrights
anddemocracywillinvariablybefarsuperiorinUkrainethanundertheruleoftheRussiansandtheirseparatistsatraps.Perhaps
weshouldnotmakehastyassumptions,assomehavedone,thatthesepeople,ifre-integrated,wouldconstituteafifthcolumnand
bedisloyaltoUkraine.Afterall,nationalandpoliticalidentityinUkraineisfluid,asweveseeninthelasttwoyears.Alsoletsnot
forgetthe1.5millionIDPswhomightwishtoreturntotheirhomes.SothefatesofallofthesemillionsofUkrainiancitizensalso
needtobekeptinmindinthelargerdebateaboutMinskandUkrainessovereignfuture.Itwontbeeasy,butletsnotcastthem
asideorgiveupontheDonbasprematurely.
TheNewYorkTimes(2)
PutinLamentsWest'sSupportof'CoupD'etat'inUkraine
STPETERSBURG,RussiaPresidentVladimirPutincomplainedonFridayaboutwhathecalledtheWest'ssupportfor'acoup
d'etat'inUkrainein2014duringwhichthecountry'spro-Moscowpresidentfled.
"Whysupportacoupd'etatinUkraine?...Itislikelythattheopposition,whichiscurrentlyinpower,wouldhavecometopower
bydemocraticmeans,"PutinsaidataquestionandanswersessionduringtheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.
HesaidthewaypowerhadchangedhandshadledtobloodshedandhadfrightenedtheRussian-speakingpopulationinCrimea
andsouth-easternUkraine.
(ReportingbyAlexanderWinning,EkaterinaGolubkovaandChristianLoweWritingbyVladimirSoldatkinEditingbyAndrew
Osborn)
[ED:SEEOLIVERSTONE'SNEWDOCONTHEISSUE.ANT/FMEMO]
EUExtendsRussiaSanctionsOverCrimeafor1Year
ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJUNE17,2016,8:03A.M.E.D.T.
BRUSSELSTheEuropeanUnionhasextendedforanotheryearsomeofitssanctionstargetingRussiaoveritsannexationof
theCrimeanpeninsula.
Fortwoyears,the28-nationEUhasimposedevermorepunitivemeasuresonRussiatoprotestwhatitcalls"theillegalannexation
ofCrimeaanddeliberatedestabilizationofUkraine."
Thesanctionstargetimportsfromthepeninsulaandinvestmentthere,amongothermeasures.
TheannouncementcameonedayafterEUCommissionPresidentJean-ClaudeJunckermetwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutin
inSt.Petersburg.
AftertheEUfirstimposedsanctionstwoyearsago,Moscowretaliatedbybanningimportsofmeat,vegetableanddairyproducts
fromtheEU,ablowtomanyofthebloc'smembers.
USMissiontotheOSCE(3statements)
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine:StatementtothePC
http://osce.usmission.gov/russias-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc-4-4/
Beforebeginning,Mr.Chair,letmejoinyouinwelcomingthenewsoftheexchangethatledtothereleaseofYuriSoloshenkoand
GennadiyAfanasyev.LikemanyothersstillinRussiancustody,thesetwoindividualswereconvictedontrumpedup,politically-
motivatedcharges,andtheirreleaseisastepinfulfillingRussiascommitmentsundertheMinskagreements,andshouldnow
provideimpetusforthecompleteimplementationofthoseagreements,includingreleasingallotherhostagesandunlawfullydetained
persons.
TheUnitedStatesremainsdeeplyconcernedbythesurgeinviolenceineasternUkraineandeffortsbycombinedRussian-
separatistforcestomasktheirincreasingaggressionandtheweaponrythatfacilitatestheirattacks.Overthelastseveraldays,the
SpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)hasfoundfoursurface-to-airmissilesystemsinRussian-separatistcontrolledDonetskcity,in
clearviolationofthewithdrawallines.Whilefollowinguponreportsofshellinginseparatist-heldHorlivka,theSMMsawfresh
tracesofatrackedvehicle,andaresidentsaidhehadseenamilitary-typevehiclewithabarrelpointingupduringtheJune10
shelling.Thepresenceanduseofsuchweaponsraisestheriskofafurtherescalationinthefighting,aswehaveseenseveraltimes
overthecourseofthepastweek.OnJune12alone,combinedRussian-separatistforcesshelledUkrainianforcesover348times,
claimingthelivesoffoursoldiersandwoundingeightmore.
EvenmoretroublingisgrowingevidenceofcombinedRussian-separatistsapparentlyattemptingtouseciviliansashumanshields.
TheSMMreportsincludingitsfirsthandaccountsfromresidentsevidencethatcombinedRussian-separatistforceshave
stationedandfiredprohibitedheavyweaponsfromcivilianareas,includinga152mmself-propelledhowitzer.TheSMMhaseven
reportedevidencethattheseparatistswerefiringmortarsandsniperriflesfromtheroofsofapartmentbuildings.TheUnitedStates
underscorestheimportanceofupholdinginternationalhumanitarianlawintheconflictandemphasizesthatthesidesshouldprotect
thelocalpopulationfromharmtothefullestextentpossible.Allforcesmuststrictlyavoidpositioningheavyweaponsnearcivilian
locations,particularlyiftheyareprohibitedbyagreement,andupholdtheceasefirebyonlyfiringdefensively.
UkrainiansintheconflictzonepaythehighestpriceforRussiasongoingaggression.Checkpointsremainsubjecttoclosureasa
resultoftheviolence,andnewcrossingpointsremainblocked,likeZolote,whichtheseparatistspledgedtoopenmonthsagoin
theHumanitarianWorkingGroup.Fightinghasclaimedover21,000civiliandeathsandinjuriessincetheconflictbeganovertwo
yearsago,andtraumaiswidespreadamongchildrenintheconflictzone.Lastweek,theSMMdocumentedthestoryofafour-
yearoldboywhostoppedspeakingafterfightingbrokeoutinhisvillageinseparatist-heldDonetskoverayearago.Eventhough
childrenlikehimdonothaveaccesstopsychologicalsupportinseparatist-heldareas,Russian-backedseparatistscontinueto
blockaccessforinternationalaidorganizations.Russiapreviouslystatedthathumanitarianorganizationsshouldbegiventhe
opportunitytoworkinDonbas,buttheseparatistsRussiabackscontinuetolimitaccess.Indeed,onApril23theUNsregistration
expiredinareasofLuhanskoblastunderseparatistcontrol,despiterepeatedeffortsbytheUNtomaintainitsstatus.Russiaand
theseparatistsmustend,onceandforall,therestrictionsagainsttheaidorganizationsthathelpsavelivesinthecommunities
bearingthebruntoftheconflict.
WeurgeRussiaandtheseparatiststoimplementtheirMinskcommitments,includinggrantingtheOSCEfullaccess,and
guaranteeingthesafetyofthemonitors.Implementingtheceasefirewillalsorequirenothinglessthanfulltransparencythroughout
theconflictzone,whichmeanscombinedRussian-separatistforcesmustimmediatelyceasetheireffortstoblindtheSMM.All
threatsandattacksagainstSMMmonitorsanditsassetsmustcease.TheSMMmustbegivenunhindered,unrestricted,andsafe
accessthroughouttheentiretyofUkraineandbeallowedtostationmonitors,cameras,andothertechnicalmeansofobservationin
theconflictzonewithoutinterference.
Inadditiontothestepsabove,RussiamustimplementtheotherelementsintheMinskagreements:electionsmustbeheldunder
UkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredbytheOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRights
foreignforcesandequipmentmustbewithdrawnandUkrainiancontroloveritsinternationalbordermustberestored.Sanctions
imposedfortheRussianaggressionineasternUkrainewillremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitscommitmentsinthe
Minskagreements.
RussiamustalsostopobstructinginternationalmonitoringofthesituationinCrimeaandensurethatabusesendimmediately.
OccupationauthoritieshaveharassedandintimidatedCrimeanTataractivistsandotherswhoopposetheoccupation,conducted
intrusiveandunwarrantedsearchesatTatarmosques,schools,andhomes,andinitiatedunwarrantedadministrativeandcriminal
proceedingsagainstscoresofCrimeanTatars.WeareconcernedbyreportsthatajudgeinCrimeasentencedEuromaidanactivist
AndreiKolomietsto10yearsinprisononchargesthathumanrightsactivistshavecalledpoliticallymotivated.Thisisunacceptable
andwecallonRussiatostopthesepractices.WeremindtheRussianFederationthatCrimea-relatedsanctionswillcontinueuntilit
endstheoccupationandreturnsthisUkrainianland.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna
http://osce.usmission.gov/observer-mission-russian-checkpoints-gukovo-donetsk-statement-pc/
OntheObserverMissionattheRussianCheckpointsatGukovoandDonetsk:StatementtothePC
TheUnitedStateswarmlywelcomesColonelFlavienSchallertothePermanentCouncil,andthankshimforhisinformativereport
ontheOSCEObserverMissionattheRussianCheckpointsofGukovoandDonetsk.ColonelSchaller,wealsowishtoexpress
ourappreciationforyourownandyourteamsworkindifficultandrestrictiveconditions.
TheUnitedStatesfindsitdeeplyregrettablethattheRussianFederationhasthusfarfailedtorespondmeaningfullytoproposalsto
ensurethepermanentmonitoringoftheUkrainian-RussianborderandverificationbytheOSCEasRussiacommittedtodoin
signingtheSeptember2014MinskProtocol.Morethan30participatingStateshaveregularlycalledtoexpandthegeographic
scopeoftheOSCEObserverMissionbeyondthecurrenttwocheckpointstocovertheentirelengthofthebordernowoutside
thecontroloftheUkrainiangovernment,includingtheothertencrossingpointsandtheareasbetweenthem.CombinedRussian-
separatistforcesalsocontinuetoroutinelyblocktheSpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)fromaccesstoareasneartheborder.
TheSMMhasbeenreadyformonthstoopennewforwardpatrolbasesandpatrolhubsneartheborderthatwouldallowforreal,
meaningfulcoverageoftheborder.YetRussia-backedseparatistshaverefusedtoprovidethesecurityassurancesnecessaryfor
themissiontodoso.
TheRussianFederationhasjustifieditsoppositiontoenhancingOSCEmonitoringoftheborderbyarguingthatitonlyagreedto
allowtheObserverMissiononRussianterritoryasagoodwillgesture.Colleagues,itisnotashowofgoodwilltomethodically
obstructtheOSCEbyblockingexpansionoftheObserverMissionwhileatthesametimeensuringtheSMMisgivenonly
conditional,episodicaccesstotheborderwhenevercombinedRussian-separatistforcesarecertainthereisnothingof
consequencefortheSMMtosee.Russiasobstructionismconfirmsthatitcontinuestofacilitatetheflowofillegalarms,equipment,
funding,andpersonneltotheseparatists.
DespitethestrictlimitsimposedontheObserverMissionsmandateandoperatingprocedures,theMissionhasnevertheless
recordedclearindicationsofRussiasdestabilizinganddestructiveactivityinDonbas,includingreportsofmorethan28,000
crossingsofindividualsinmilitary-styledressatthetwocheckpointssincetheObserverMissionsoperationsbegan.Numerous
individualsevenclarifiedtoOSCEobserversthatwhiletheydonotcrosswithweapons,theyretrieveweaponsinseparatist-held
partsofUkraine.DespiteRussianattemptstoportraythesemenandwomenassimplecivilians,itiscleartoallthattheyare
crossingintoUkrainetofight.TheObserverMissionhasreportedonclearlymarkedmilitaryfuneraryvehiclesreturningtoRussia
on26differentoccasionssincetheinceptionoftheObserverMissionmostrecentlyonApril6.Suchevidenceisfurther
corroboratedbytheSMM,whichonJune10observedtheexhumationofasoldierinaRussianmilitaryuniform,andspokewitha
gunmanwhofreelyadmittedhecamefromtheRussianFederationtofightfortheseparatists.ThousandsofRussianmilitary
personnelormercenarieshavecrossedtheborderatthetwopointswheretheOSCEhasapresence.Untoldthousandsof
additionalpersonnelmayhavecrossedwheretherearenointernationalobservers.
Russiaslackoftransparencyappliestovirtuallyallcross-bordertrafficinseparatist-controlledareas.OnJune10attheborder
crossinginDonetsk,theSMMaskeddriversofaconvoyofcoveredtrucksabouttheircargo,buttheyrefusedtoanswer.Near
theborderinLuhanskonJune8,Russia-backedseparatistsrefusedtoallowSMMmonitorsaccesstoarailhub.Thesearenot
isolatedincidents,butpartofastrategyofdenialanddeceptionbyRussiaandtheseparatiststhatunderminesconfidenceinthe
ceasefireandRussiascommitmenttotheMinskagreementswhichremainstheonlywaytoendRussiasaggressionandresolve
theconflictineasternUkraine.
Finally,Mr.Chair,wejointheEuropeanUnionincondemningRussiascontinuedpracticeofsendingwhitetruckconvoysacross
theborder.Eachtruck,eachconvoyisanotherviolationofUkrainessovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.
ColonelSchaller,letmethankyouforyourleadershipofaMissionthat,inspiteofRussiasrepeatedrefusalstoexpand,isavital
partoftheOSCEsefforttocontributetoalastingpeaceinUkraine.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna
ResponsetoRussiaontheObserverMissionattheRussianCheckpointsatGukovoandDonetsk:Statementtothe
PC
IdliketorespondtosomeofthecommentsmadebyourdistinguishedRussiancolleague.First,therepeatedclaimthat
observationoftheinternationalborderbetweenRussiaandUkraineisonlypossiblebecauseofagoodwillgestureoftheRussian
Federation:ourUkrainiancolleaguehasjustrecalledthesequenceofevents,andthefactthatwhenthefirstinvitationwas
WindowonEurasia
EverFewerRussiansarePayingAttentiontoUkraine,SurveyFindswindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/ever-
fewer-russians-are-paying.html
IstheWestForgettingUkraineasPutinWantsandExpects?windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/is-west-forgetting-
ukraine-as-putin.html
NoMoscowPoliticianCouldhaveChangedUkrainesEuropeanChoice,RussianNationalist
Sayswindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/no-moscow-politician-could-have-changed.html
COMPARE&CONTRAST:Vlad'sFavFilmmakerOlieStonevs.3timeOscarwinnerMarkHarris
on'UkraineRevofDignity
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Subject:TrailerforOliverStonefilmaboutMaidan
To:"ap.borisow@comcast.net"<ap.borisow@comcast.net>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
ShaunWalker
BananaslookingtrailerforOliverStonefilmaboutMaidanbeingaCIAcouphttp://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=gVdvp188rk4
Date:Wed,Jun15,2016at12:43PM
Subject:TheBreakingPoint,anewdocumentaryonUkraine
To:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
ThoughtyoumightliketoseetheroughcutofthetrailerforthenewdocumentaryonUkrainewejustfinished.
Here'sthelinkandpassword.:
Password:BreakingPOINT
http://vimeo.com/165134314
Date:Wed,Jun15,2016at3:13PM
Subject:Invitation:FilmScreening:"TheBreakingPoint:TheWarforDemocracyinUkraine"[ED:MOREONPB'S
PROJECT]
To:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>

Toviewthisemailasawebpage,clickhere
FilmScreening:"TheBreakingPoint:
TheWarforDemocracyinUkraine"
Monday,June27,2016
3:30PM-5:30PM
ExclusiveWashington,D.C.SneakPreviewofBreaking
Point,aDocumentarybyThreeTimeAcademyAward 6thFloorAuditorium
WinningDirector,MarkJonathanHarris.
Directions
WithindaysoftheMaidanRevolutionstopplingofPresident
ViktorYanukovych,UkrainewasinvadedbyRussia. WilsonCenter
Ukrainiansofallbackgroundsralliedtothecountrys RonaldReaganBuildingand
InternationalTradeCenter
defense,intheprocesscreatinganewsenseofUkrainian
OneWoodrowWilsonPlaza
nationhoodandnationalidentity.BreakingPointdepicts 1300Pennsylvania,Ave.,NW
theseturbulentevents,attimesheroic,attimestragic, Washington,D.C.20004
throughtheeyesofpeoplewholivedthemadoctor,a
soldier,achildrenstheaterdirector,arabbi,aninvestigative Phone:202.691.4000
reporter.
kennan@wilsoncenter.org
DirectorMarkJonathanHarrisandProducerPeterBorisow
willattendthescreening.TherewillbeaQ&Aafterthe PrivacyPolicy
screening,followedbyareception.
Thissneakpreviewisthefirstandonlyofthefilmin
Washington,D.C.Seatingislimited,sopleaserememberto
RSVP.
Speaker
MarkJonathanHarris,DirectorFilmmaker3-time
AcademyAwardWinner
RSVPNOW ForwardtoaFriend
Copyright2016,TheWoodrowWilsonInternationalCenterforScholars,AllRightsReserved.
Subscriber:Emma.Dorst@wilsoncenter.org|ManageyourSubscriptions|UnsubscribefromAll
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Subject:Russianathletestoremainbannedfrominternationalcompetition-BBCSport
http://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/36562570
Russianathletestoremainbannedfrom
internationalcompetition
Russianathleteswillremainbannedfrominternationalcompetition,BBCSportunderstands.
Athleticschiefshavedecidednottoliftthesuspension,whichwasimposedinNovemberfollowingaccusationsof
state-sponsoreddoping.
TheWorldAnti-DopingAgency(Wada)thisweeksaidofficialsinRussiawerebeingstoppedfromtestingathletes
andthreatenedbysecurityservices.
RussiasaidinNovemberitwas"fullycommitted"toreforms.
ThecountrywassuspendedbytheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF)afteranindependent
Wadareportdepictedacultureofwidespreaddoping,witheventhesecretservicesinvolved.
RussiansportsministerVitalyMutkohassincesaidheis"verysorry"cheatingathleteswerenotcaughtbythe
country'santi-dopingsystems,butstoppedshortofadmittingthescandalhadbeenstate-sponsored.
AtaskforcehasbeenstudyingtheRussianreforms,butafreshWadareport,issuedonWednesday,mademore
damagingclaims.
InternationalOlympicCommittee(IOC)vice-presidentJohnCoatessaidRussia'sathletesshouldremainbannedand
notbeallowedtotakepartintheRioGaamesthissummer.
HealsosaidRussia'santi-dopingagencyandathleticsbodywere"rottentothecore".
However,theIOCcouldstillallowRussianathletestocompeteattheOlympics,whichbeginon5August.
IOCofficialsgatherinLausanneonTuesdaytodiscussthematter,withsomeconcernedasuspensionwillpunish
innocentathletes.
WhatreformshasRussiaimplemented?
AccordingtoMutko,Russiahasbeenreformingitsanti-dopingprogrammesinceitwasbannedinNovember.
Hesaysithas:
Introducedindependenttesting
Introducedadditionaltesting
OverhauledtheRussianAnti-DopingAgency
OverhauledtheRussianAthleticsFederation
Introducedstricterrulesfordoping
Introducedlessonsonanti-dopinginschools
MutkoinsistsRussia"hasdoneeverythingthatIAAF"hasaskedittodoinordertobe"reinstatedtoathletic
competition"andhashintedhiscountrycouldtakelegalactionifitsathleticsfederationisnotreinstated.
Russiasaysitisbeingunfairlyvictimised,claimingothercountrieshavefallenfouloftheWadacode,suchasKenya
andEthiopia,butarefreetocompete.
Senttime: 06/18/201610:49:48AM
FW:[WEEKENDVLAD-O-RAMA:COMMENTARY&THESPORTSSECTION][COMMENTARY][MK]Fwd:'DontAppeasePutin'byGuy
Subject: Verhofstadt-ProjectSyndicate[SPORTSSECTION][MB/3X]IAAFVERSIONOFROPE-A-RUDOPING+OHWHATLOVELYFANS(IN"SHWIN-
WEAR"NOLESS)[...

Sent:Saturday,June18,20167:47AM
Subject:Fwd:[WEEKENDVLAD-O-RAMA:COMMENTARY&THESPORTSSECTION][COMMENTARY][MK]Fwd:'DontAppeasePutin'byGuy
Verhofstadt-ProjectSyndicate[SPORTSSECTION][MB/3X]IAAFVERSIONOFROPE-A-RUDOPING+OHWHATLOVELYFANS(IN"SHWIN-
WEAR"NOLESS)[...
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at10:45AM
Subject:[WEEKENDVLAD-O-RAMA:COMMENTARY&THESPORTSSECTION][COMMENTARY][MK]Fwd:'Dont
AppeasePutin'byGuyVerhofstadt-ProjectSyndicate[SPORTSSECTION][MB/3X]IAAFVERSIONOFROPE-A-RU
DOPING+OHWHATLOVELYFANS(IN"SHWIN-WEAR"NOLESS)[NOTE:Putin'sUSShillMikeyAverko"CriesFoul"]
Subject:DontAppeasePutinbyGuyVerhofstadt-ProjectSyndicate
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/tighten-eu-sanctions-on-russia-by-guy-verhofstadt-2016-06
GUYVERHOFSTADT
GuyVerhofstadt,aformerBelgianprimeminister,isPresidentoftheAllianceofLiberalsandDemocratsforEuropeGroup(ALDE)intheEuropean
Parliament.
June15,2016
DontAppeasePutin

inShare16
BRUSSELSBothUSPresidentBarackObamaandDonaldTrump,theRepublicanpartysputative
nomineetosucceedhim,havecriticizedEuropeanmembersofNATOinrecentmonthsforfailingtofulfill
theirdefense-spendingcommitments.Theyhaveapoint.
Europehasindeedfailedtoupholditssideofthecollectivedefensebargain.AlmostallofAmericas
Europeanallieshaveallowedtheiraveragedefensespendingtofallbelowthepromisedlevelof2%ofGDP,
withsomespendingfarlessthanthat.Moreimportant,theyhavefailedtobuildupagenuineEuropean
defensecommunity.Unlesstheystepup,theyrisklendingcredencetoTrumpsrecklessclaimsthatthe
Europeansaremerelyfreeriders,exploitinganoutdatedallianceattheexpenseofAmericantaxpayers.
OneareawhereEuropecandemonstrateitsstrategicvaluetotheUSisVladimirPutinsRussia.Some
alreadyarguethattheEuropeanUnionhasfailedtoexercisethesoft-poweroptionsavailabletoittodeal
withanoverlyassertiveKremlin.But,whileabroaderEUstrategytowardRussiaiscertainlylacking,there
isstilltimetodowhatisneededtocurbtheKremlinsprovocativebehavior.
FollowingRussiasinvasionofUkraineandannexationofCrimea,EUcountriesimplementedeconomic
sanctions,includingrestrictionsoncredittoRussianbanksandenergyfirms.Thesanctionswerelinkedto
theimplementationofthe2014MinskProtocol,whichbroughtabouttodayspatchyceasefirewith
Russian-backedinsurgentsineasternUkrainesDonbasregion,andaresupposedtoexpireattheendof
nextmonth.
ButUkrainestilllacksfullcontrolofitsbordersandareliabletruceinDonbas.SoG7leadersrecently
pledgedtoprolongthesanctionsuntilboththe2014and2015Minskagreementsarefullyrespected.Inthe
EU,however,thesanctionscontinuetobehotlydebated,withdiplomatsfromHungary,Cyprus,Italy,and
otherssofteningtheirstancetowardRussia.TheKremlinslobbyingeffortsseemtobehavinganimpact.
Anditisnotonlyfar-rightextremists,suchassupportersofFrancesNationalFront,whoaresusceptibleto
Putinsblandishments.MainstreampoliticiansinFranceandelsewherehavealsostartedtoquestionthe
currentsanctionsregime.GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeier,forexample,has
recommendedeasingthesanctions,providedthatRussiafulfillscertainconditions.
Beyondadvocatingforalooseningofsanctions,someEuropeanleadersareevencozyinguptotheKremlin.
ItalianPrimeMinisterMatteoRenzi,widelyregardedasasanctionsskeptic,willbeaguestofhonorat
PutinsSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForumthisweek.EuropeanCommissionPresidentJean-
ClaudeJunckerwillalsobeinattendance.
ThisisnotimeforEuropetogosoftonRussia.RatherthanattendingaPutin-ledconferenceand
providingtheKremlinwithapropagandacoupaheadofparliamentaryelectionsJunckershouldplace
EUprioritiesattheforefront.ThoseprioritiesincludethepreservationofEuropespost-ColdWarpolitical
andsecurityarchitecture,theprotectionoftheterritorialintegrityofEuropeancountries,andrespectfor
thesharednormsembodiedbyinstitutionsliketheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope
andtheCouncilofEurope.OncePutinhasagreedtosupportthesepriorities,discussionsonRussia-EU
economiccooperationcanbegin.
AweakeningofsanctionsonRussiamightpleaseEuropeanbusinessleaders,butitwouldcomeatasteep
long-termcost.Evenwithsanctionsinplace,thefrozenconflictinUkrainelooksincreasinglypermanent.
Easingsanctionsnow,withsolittleprogresshavingbeenmadeunderthelatestMinskagreement,would
amounttoacatastrophiccollapseinEuropesimpactandcredibilityandamajorlossforUkraine.
EUleadersmustremainfirmandunitedinensuringthatexistingeconomicsanctionsareliftedonlyifthe
Minskagreementisimplementedfully.ThisincludesthefullwithdrawalofRussianforcesandmilitary
equipmentfromUkrainianterritory,andrestorationtoUkrainesgovernmentofcompletecontroloverits
borderwithRussia.
InsistenceonRussiancomplianceinUkraineisallthemoreimportant,giventhattheKremlinsactions
therearejustoneexampleoftheincreasinglyroguebehaviorthattheEUmustseektocurb.Giventhis,
ratherthanweakeningsanctions,theEUshouldworktodevelopstrongermeasuresaimedatPutinandhis
cronies,inspiredbyAmericasMagnitskyAct,whichtargetsRussianofficialsresponsibleforgrosshuman-
rightsviolations.
SuchanapproachwouldensurethatthosewhobenefitfromPutinscronycapitalismcouldnotlaunder
theirmoneyandsheltertheirfamiliesintheWest.Infact,suchselectivesanctionscouldbemoreeffective
ininfluencingRussianpolicythanthemoregeneralizedeconomicrestrictions,astheyprovideanexplicit
andtangiblewarningtoRussianelitesthattheirimpunityendsatthecountrysborders.
Beyondsanctions,theEUandtheUnitedStatesmustbecomemuchmoreproactiveandefficientin
combatingthemassivedisinformationcampaignthathasbecomeapotentweaponintheKremlinshybrid
waragainstRussiasneighborsandtheWest.Likewise,theEUshoulddevisewaystosupportcivilsociety,
students,researchers,andsmall-andmedium-sizeenterprisesinRussia,astheystruggleforfreedom,
democracy,andprosperity.Finally,theEUneedstostepupeffortstostemtheflowsofmoneyand
resourcesthatPutinisusingtodestabilizeanddivideEuropespoliticallandscape.
ThosewhoarecallingforasofterapproachtoRussianeedtoremovetheirblindersandrecognizethescale
oftheKremlinseffortstobringabouttheEUsdisintegration.GiventheprospectofaTrump
administrationintheUS,suchpressuresarethelastthingtheEUneeds.HoldingfirmonRussiaisthe
onlywaytoholdEuropetogether.
GermanChancellorAngelaMerkelisabsolutelyrightwhenshesayssheseesnoreasontorollback
sanctionsonRussia.TheKremlinhasdonenothingtodeservesuchareward.Onthecontrary,itdeserves
evenstricterpenalties.
Subject:Russianathletesbanis'unfair',saysVladimirPutin-BBCNews
Russianathletesbanis'unfair',saysVladimirPutin
VladimirPutinspeaking,17June2016
APMrPutinsaidinnocentathletesshouldnotbepunishedfortheactionsofothers
Russia President Vladimir Putin has said it is unfair the Russian athletics team remains banned from
international contests, including the Rio Olympics.
The International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) decided not to lift the suspension, imposed
after accusations of statesponsored doping.
Individual athletes may compete as neutrals if they prove they are clean.
Mr Putin called on the International Olympic Committee (IOC), to intervene.
Doping, violence: What's gone wrong with Russian sport?
The IOC executive board said it would hold a telephone conference on Saturday to discuss the issue ahead
of a full IOC summit in Lausanne on Tuesday.
"There are universally recognised principles of law and one of them is that the responsibility should be
always personified," said President Putin.
"The people who have nothing to do with violations, why should they suffer for those who committed the
violations?"
The country was suspended by the IAAF in November 2015, after an independent World AntiDoping
Association (Wada) report depicted a culture of widespread doping, with even the secret services
involved.
After that, Russia introduced reforms including an overhaul of the rules, the introduction of independent
testing, and antidoping lessons in schools.
A task force has been studying those reforms but a fresh Wada report, issued on Wednesday, made more
damaging claims.
Although significant progress has been made to meet the IAAF's criteria, it said, work still remains. In
particular:
The deepseated culture of tolerance for doping appears not to have changed. The head coach of
the athletics team and athletes appear unwilling to acknowledge the extent of the doping problem.
A strong and effective antidoping infrastructure capable of detecting and deterring doping has still
not been created.
There are detailed allegations that the Ministry of Sport has orchestrated systematic doping and
coverups.
Wada said officials in Russia were being stopped from testing athletes and threatened by security services.
Rune Andersen of the IAAF said Russian athletics had been "tainted by doping from the top level down."
"The systematic doping that has been ongoing in Russia it's difficult to pick the clean athletes," he said.
IAAF's Rune Andersen: "A hundred negative tests does not mean that an athlete is clean"
IOC vicepresident John Coates said Russia's athletes should remain banned and not be allowed to take part
in the Rio Games this summer.
He also said Russia's antidoping agency and athletics body were "rotten to the core".
Meanwhile, Russian pole vaulter Yelena Isinbayeva said she would challenge the IAAF's decision in court,
saying she was "disappointed and angry".
"We are blamed for something we have not done," she said. "I will not remain silent, I will take measures. I
will appeal to the human rights court."
In a statement, Russia's Ministry of Sport said it was "extremely disappointed" by the IAAF decision.
IAAF president Lord Coe said "no politics" were involved in the decision over Russia's ban. He emphasised
the unanimous nature of the verdict and the international range of council members.
On Saturday, Russia said it was investigating its former top antidoping official, who raised the alert before
fleeing to the US.
A criminal investigation has been opened into whether Grigory Rodchenkov abused his authority.
Mr Rodchenkov alleged that the Sochi winter Olympics were the apex of a decadelong effort to perfect
Russia's doping strategy.
Subject:RussiaCriesFoul,RestOfWorldWelcomesIAAF'sBan
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russia-cries-foul-rest-of-world-welcomes-iaafs-ban_us_576460a7e4b015db1bc96ffa?
section=
WeareextremelydisappointedbytheIAAFsdecision,
creatingtheunprecedentedsituationofawholenations
trackandfieldathletesbeingbannedfromthe
Olympics.
RussiaclaimedtheIAAFsdecisiontocontinueitsbanofRussianathleticsonFridaywas
unfairandthreatenedlegalaction,whiletherestoftheworldwelcomedthemoveandurged
theIOCnottogoagainstit.
WeareextremelydisappointedbytheIAAFsdecision,creatingtheunprecedentedsituation
ofawholenationstrackandfieldathletesbeingbannedfromtheOlympics,saidthe
Russianministryofsport.
Cleanathletesdreamsarebeingdestroyedbecauseofthereprehensiblebehaviorofother
athletesandofficials.
WenowappealtothemembersoftheInternationalOlympicCommitteetonotonly
considertheimpactthatourathletesexclusionwillhaveontheirdreamsandthepeopleof
Russia,butalsothattheOlympicsthemselveswillbediminishedbytheirabsence.
TheIAAFvotedunanimouslytoupholditsbanonRussiaforsystematicdoping,sayingthe
countryhadnotmadeenoughprogressonreformstodispelconcernsofstate-sponsored
drugabuse.
TheRussianathleticsfederationblamedthemedia,saying:Thepressurewhichwe
experiencedinthelastfewdaysaheadofthecouncilmeeting,wheneverydaywehadsome
kindofintervieworpublications,whichasarulehadnegativeconnotations,doubtlessly
influencedthedecision.
YelenaIsinbayeva,whohadhopedtoseekathirdOlympicpolevaultgoldinRioandwhois
oneofRussiasmostprominentathletes,describeditasaviolationofhumanrights.
Iwillnotbequiet,Iwilltakesteps.Iwillgotothehumanrightscourt.Iwillprovetothe
IAAFandWADAthattheymadethewrongdecision,shesaid,referringtotheWorldAnti-
DopingAgency.
AKremlinspokesman,speakinghoursbeforethebanwasextended,said:Everything
possibleneededtodefendtherightsofourathletesandtheOlympicteamisbeingdone
andwillbedoneatalegallevel.
TheIOCmerelytooknoteofthedecisionbutsaiditwoulddiscussthesituationina
telephoneconferenceonSaturday.
TheUnitedStatesOlympicCommitteedescribeditasastepintherightdirection.
Itgivesameasureofhopetocleanathletesthatthereareconsequencesnotonlyfor
athleteswhodope,butforcountrieswhichdonotengageseriouslyinthefightagainst
doping,itsaid.
StephanieHightower,presidentofUSTrackandFieldandanIAAFCouncilmember,saidit
wastheonlypropercourseofactiongiventhecompellingandpowerfulevidencepresented
toCouncil.
WedonotbelievethateveryRussianathletecheated,anditisunfortunateandregrettable
thatsomemaypayapenaltyfortheserioustransgressionsoftheirfederation.
TherewassomesympathyelsewheretooforinnocentRussianathletes,withAmerican
OlympicdecathlonsilvermedalistTreyHardeesaying:SaddayforRussianathletes.The
peopleinchargeshouldbepunished,theycreatedthecultureofdope.
Subject:Doping,violence:What'sgonewrongwithRussiansport?-BBCNews
Doping,violence:What'sgonewrongwithRussian
sport?
EPAAccusedofdoping:Russia'sMariyaSavinova(right)wontheOlympic800matLondon2012and
EkaterinaPoistogovacamethird
When I used to live in central Moscow quite often I would visit the giant swimming pool built for
the 1980 Moscow Olympics.
And as I used to breast-stroke or crawl my way - embarrassingly slowly I have to say - up and down the
lane, I would look up and be inspired by three words printed in big letters on the wall: "Bystree - vyshe -
silnee!" (Faster - Higher - Stronger!).
Now this, of course, is the Olympic motto. But to me these three clarion calls seemed to sum up the
meaning of sport in Russia. It's about pushing the boundaries, constant improvement and, ultimately, about
becoming the best.
AFPRussia loves sporting success: 2008 Olympic champions (from left) Maxim Opalev (canoeing) and Larisa Ilchenko (open
water swimming)
AFPRussians are familiar with President Putin's love of judo and ice hockey
Russia has always been a highly competitive country, whether in the days of communism against capitalism,
the arms race, the space race or an Olympic relay race.
Shadow of doping
Sadly, today if you hear Russian athletes claiming they're becoming "Faster - Higher - Stronger" the first
thing you think about is doing a doping test. Which is unfair, really, because of course not all Russian
sportsmen and women are guilty of taking banned substances.
But there's no doubt that allegations of a state-sponsored doping programme here have cast a huge shadow
over Russian sport.
Russian football fans confront England fans at a cafe in Lille, 14 Jun 16
AFPRussian football fans (foreground) clashed with England fans in Lille (in photo) and Marseille
But it's not just doping scandals that have rocked Russia.
Sometimes I think that instead of wearing snazzy suits, Russian Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko should be
dressed like a firefighter, in a bright yellow hard hat, a hose in one hand and fire extinguisher in the other.
Because recently his job has been all about fighting one fire after another.
For example:
2014: German TV says it has evidence of widespread doping in Russian track and field (Boom. Fire!)
2015: Russian athletes banned from international competitions (Boom. Another blaze!)
Last month - yet another inferno as riot police break up a mass brawl at a top Russian wrestling
competition
And just a few days ago, at Euro 2016, Russia is threatened with disqualification over its football
hooligans, three of whom are later jailed in France
Russian Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko facing reporters, 8 Jun 16
AFPThe Olympic doping scandal put Russian Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko in the media spotlight
What on earth has gone wrong with Russian sport?
Well, you often hear officials and politicians here claiming that it's not their fault, that it's not Russia lighting
all these fires - that this is arson by the West, which is exaggerating the problems in Russian sport for
political gain.
Moscow maintains that sports doping is a global problem, football hooliganism is a global problem. Don't
dump the blame solely on us, they cry.
But Moscow's sternest critics say that cheating and violence in sport here is the result of a resurgent and
belligerent Russia which seeks victories on all fronts and at all costs.
Whatever the reason, Russia's reputation is suffering. It reminds me rather of how I used to feel as I
spluttered my way across the Olympic swimming pool - in other words, there's a bit of a sinking feeling
about Russian sport.

From:hunter@
Subject:Russianhooligansweresavageandorganised,sayEnglandfans[ED:THEPHOTOSINTHEARTICLEBELOWARE
REVEALING]
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/12/russian-hooligans-savage-organised-england-fans-marseille-euro-2016#img-3
Russianhooligansweresavageand
organised,sayEnglandfans
SomeweredisguisedinEnglishclubshirtsandequippedwithgumshieldsand
truncheonsforviolenceinMarseille
DanielBoffeyinMarseille
Sunday12June201610.37EDT
EnglandfansembroiledinviolenceinMarseilleonSaturdaynighthavesaidgroupsofRussianhooligans
launchedsavagecoordinatedattacksaroundthecity,disguisedinEnglishclubshirtsandequippedwith
gumshieldsandtelescopictruncheons.
RoamingRussianfansapproachedtheviolence,whichoccurredbeforeandafterEnglandsopeningEuro
2016gameinMarseille,withmilitaryorganisation,fanssaid,asUefaopeneddisciplinaryproceedings
againstRussiasfootballunion.
CallingcardswerepostedonlamppostsaroundtheOldPortareaoftown,seeminglytoguidethehooligans
astowheretocongregatebeforeactsofviolencethatevenseasonedtravellerswithEnglandsaidwerethe
worsttheyhadexperienced.
RebekahVardy,thewifeoftheEnglandstrikerJamie,hadtobeescortedfromabrasserienearthestadium
afterriotpoliceteargassedmaraudinghooligans.
ShetweetedonSunday:ThathastobeuptherewiththeworstexperienceEVERatanawaygame!
Teargassedfornoreason,cagedandtreatedlikeanimals!Shocking!Iwitnessedthiswithmyowneyes!I
cantcommentonthingsIdidntseebutwhatIgotcaughtupinwashorrificanduncalledfor!
Uefasaiditscontrol,ethicsanddisciplinarybodieshadopenedacaseagainstRussiaoveritssupporter
stormingoftheEnglandendoftheStadeVelodromeattheendofthegame,racistbehaviourduringthe
matchandtheuseoffireworks.
ItsaiditwouldjudgethecaseonTuesday,beforeRussiassecondEuro2016GroupBmatchagainst
SlovakiaonWednesday,andwouldimplementcorrectivemeasurestostrengthensecurityatstadiumsas
aresultofsegregationissues.
Themajorityofthe35peopleinjuredonSaturday,fourofthemseriously,wereattackedoutsidethe
stadium.
ApoliceofficerhadtoadministerCPRtoa51-year-oldmanintheOldPortafterhewasstruckonthehead
withaweaponandrepeatedlykickedontheground.Heissaidtobecriticallyill.
OneEnglishmanisstillinhospitalhoveringbetweenlifeanddeath,apolicespokesmansaid.Heisina
criticalconditionafterhisheartstoppedbeforerevival.
OnSundaymorningfriendsofthemandroppedoffhisbagsattheTimonehospitalontheoutskirtsofthe
city,beforeleavingMarseillewithouthavingbeenallowedtovisithim.Thetwomenintheir50sdeclined
tospeakabouttheconditionoftheirfriend.
Ahospitalsourcesaid:Theconsulatetoldhistwofriendstobringhisbagsdownandleavethemwiththe
doctors,buttheywerenotabletovisitorseehimastheywerenothisdirectfamily.Theyjustleftthe
hospitalandsaidtheyhadatraintocatch.
InthedaysprecedingtheworstoftheviolenceonSaturdayevening,therewereconfrontationsbetween
EnglandfansandFrenchriotpolice.TherewerewidelyreportedincidentsofBritishvisitorstothetown
chantingloudlyandthrowingbottleswhenconfrontedbytheauthorities.
EnglandfansleavingMarseillefromtheStCharlestrainstationonSunday,however,saidRussianshad
appearedintentonattackingthemfromthemomenttheyappearedintheOldPortpartofMarseilleon
Saturdayafternoon.
Theywereveryorganised,saidIanAllsop,abuilderfromLuton.Theyworegumshields,somehad
Englandshirtsontomixin.TheyweretheretodotheEnglish.Andtheywerethickset,stockyguys.People
weregettingbottlessmashedontheirheads,batssmashedintothem.Loadsofpeoplewerehurt.
Allsopsaidhehadbeenlookingforhis24-year-oldsonduringtheviolencewhenhewasattacked.About
300Russianscameoutofnowhere.TheyjustwalkedstraightthroughalltheEnglandfanswhowere
standingaboutsinging,hesaid.TheRussiansjuststartedhittinganyonetheycould.
Onewenttopunchme,Iduckedandpunchedhimbacktodefendmyself.Ihadto.Butthensomeone
tookabattomyarm.Itiskillingmetoday.Ihavegotticketsforthesemi-finalbutIwouldntcomeifitwas
here.Later,onthewaytothegame,agroupoflocalsstartingspittingatus.Wetoldthemtostopandthey
tookoutknivesonus.Thepolicewerenowhere.
MartynLowe,28,fromStoke-on-Trent,aself-employeddeliverydriverandfatheroftwo,wasleftwith
brokenribsandablackeyeafterbeingknockedunconsciousinanattack.
Lowesaid:Imherewithagroupof10mates.WewereoutsidetheQueenVictoriapubintheOldPort
havingsomebeers.ThenatleastthreeorfourhundredRussianscamemarchingthrough.Oneofthemhit
meontheheadwithabottleandasIreeledpunchedmeintheface.Ihadnoideahowmanywere
attackingme.
Theycameatmefromeverydirection.IwastryingtogetawaybutthenextthingIwasonthefloor.They
musthavekickedmeonthefloorbecauseIvegotbrokenribs.Itlookedliketheywereveryorganised.I
wastakentohospital.Iwokeupintheambulance,coveredinblood.
Mytrainerswerestolen,100inmywalletandaniPhone6.Ifthatsthewaytheygettheirkicksthenfair
enough.
RichardWakefield,40,fromYork,travelledtoMarseillewithhisfriendChrisSnowdon,39,fromFleet,
Hampshire.WakefieldsaidtheywouldnotnowattendanupcomingRussiagameforwhichtheyhave
tickets.WewerewalkingtothegroundmindingourownbusinesswhentheRussiansattacked,hesaid.
Therewasabiggroupofthem.Theycamerunningatusandwerekickingandhittingpeople.
Igotasmackroundtheheadandhaveacuteye.Ilostmyphoneafterbeingknockeddown.Icouldntget
intouchwithChris.Iwentintothegroundbutleftathalf-timebecauseIwasbleedingandshaken.
Itsjustsosad.Thepolicehadbeengreat,firmbutsensible.ThentheRussianswentberserk.Funnily
enough,wevegotticketsforRussiaagainstSlovakiainLille.Theresnowayweregoingnow.
KeithMoore,52,fromManchester,said:Wewerebeinghitconstantly.Wewerejuststandingaround
havingsomebeersandabitoffoodonSaturdayafternoonwhenaround25Russianssteamedin.
Youcouldeasilyseewhotheywere.TheyhadblackT-shirtswithRussianwritingon,andwereall
extremelymuscular.Theydidntmuckabout.TheypickedoutEnglishblokestoattack,andthenranoff
ConcernsforthesafetyofEnglandfansasthetournamentprogresseshavebeenraisedbytheshadow
homesecretary,AndyBurnham,whocalledforTheresaMay,thehomesecretary,tomakeastatementin
parliament.
Hesaid:ThewholecountrywillhavebeenappalledbythefrighteningscenesofviolenceinMarseille.As
ever,aminorityoftroublemakershavesouredwhatshouldhavebeenanenjoyableoccasionandputthe
safetyofinnocentpeopleatrisk.
WhiletheEnglandfansarenotblameless,itisclearthatthesituationchangedyesterdayandtheywere
subjecttoextremeprovocationandviolence.Withtherestofthetournamenttogo,thereareconcernsfor
thesafetyofsupportersofallhomenations.
Giventheseriousnessofsituation,Iamsurprisedbythesilencefromthegovernment.ThatiswhyIam
callingonthehomesecretarytomakeanurgentstatementtoparliamenttomorrowontheactionssheis
proposingtotake,workingwiththeFrenchauthoritiesandUefa,topreventanyrepeatofwhatwehave
seen.
DashaTimofeeva,27,aRussiafanwhowasatthegamewithherfather,Viktor,saidtheeventhadbeen
poorlypoliced,andshewasashamedofthebehaviourofsomeofhercompatriots.
WeareofcoursesorrytotheEnglishwhogothurt,butpleasebelieveusthatnotallRussianpeopleare
likethesehooligans,shesaid.Thereisahooligansub-cultureinRussiaandsorrybutthereisnothingus
fanscandoaboutthat.
Wewereverysurprisedthattherewerenopoliceinthestadium.Whynot?InRussiathepolicearevery
strongandkeepthehooligansincontrol.Therewasnocontrolinthestadiumlastnight.
Butalso,theEnglishfanswerenotkindeither.MyfatherandIwereintheOldPortandhadtorunaway
fromthebottlesandgas.OtherEnglandsupporterssaidsorrytous.Sobothcountrieshavegoodandbad
peopleatfootballmatches.
---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Subject:IAAF&IOCFraud
To:
Re:http://www.firstpost.com/sports/iaaf-chief-sebastian-coe-confident-there-wont-be-many-russians-at-rio-2016-
competing-under-a-neutral-flag-2842350.html&http://espn.go.com/olympics/story/_/id/16305819/ioc-fully-supports-iaaf-
decision-ban-russia
It'sperfectlyvalidtonotethemultiplesourcesindicatingthatJamaicaandKenyahavehadnumerousirregularities.Arecently
airedESPNOutsideTheLinesshownotedaJamaicanwhistleblowerwhosuggestedasmuchregardinghercountry
Inessence,LordCoeisacknowledgingadoublestandard,undertheinfluenceofanti-Russianpropaganda,thatmesheswell
withcountriesliketheUK,US,GermanyandAustralia,standingtogainagreatershareofmedalsc/ogrosslyhypocritical
standards.
KenyaandJamaicaaretrack&fieldpowers,shortofbeingatopoverallOlympiccountryunlikeRussia.Hence,it'seasier
forsometooverlookcountrieswhicharen'tinthetoptenoverallOlympicmedaltally.Moreover,theanti-Russianstrainevident
inWesternmassmediaandbodypolitic,hasundoubtedlyhadaninfluenceinshapingthemindsofthoserootingforacomplete
OlympicbanagainstRussians.
NooneisaslikelytobeaccusedofbeingracistbyselectivelytargetingRussia/Russiansunlikesomeothercountries.Articles
likethisonerelatetothatobservation:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11659059
NotetheslicksuggestionthatYelenaIsinbayevamightnotbeinnocent.Basedonwhat'sknownandnotknown,shecertainly
doesntappearmoreguiltythanCarlLewisandFlorenceGriffinJoyner:
http://www.google.com/search?
hl=en&source=hp&biw=&bih=&q=carl+lewis+drugs+doping&gbv=2&oq=carl+lewis+drugs+doping&gs_l=heirloom-
hp.12...1703.14031.0.15500.25.8.1.12.13.0.703.2376.0j1j6j6-1.8.0....0...1ac.1.34.heirloom-hp..14.11.2471.D5M7ZKBF9UU
http://www.google.com/search?
q=florence+griifin+joyner+drugs+dpoing&hl=en&gbv=2&oq=florence+griifin+joyner+drugs+dpoing&gs_l=heirloom-
serp.12..30i10.3844.8828.0.11438.13.13.0.0.0.0.250.2048.1j7j4.12.0....0...1ac.1.34.heirloom-serp..1.12.2048.BhlJ6ySyfmI
ArticleswithacontrastingviewfromwhathasbeenfavoredinWesternmassmedia:
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/01/24/russian-athletics-punishment-hopefully-end-by-next-olympics.html
IncludesthefactbasedsuggestionofabiasagainstpredominatelySlavicOrthodoxChristiannations.Russiaisthecurrent
target.In1992Yugoslavia(SerbiaandMontenegro)wasanother.Considerthenon-suspensionagainstOlympiccountries
involvedinwarsthatledtomanymoredeathsthanwhathappenedinBosnia.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/09062016-enhanced-russia-bashing-at-the-new-york-times-analysis/
ThecurrentOlympicissueisdiscussedattheend.
MichaelAverko-http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/michael-averko/
Senttime: 06/18/201610:02:27AM
fans)
fans)
Seeyesterdaysnotes.
IdidabriefsummaryofPutinsspeechandincludedalinktotheRussianinyesterdaysnotes.HereareexcerptsfromanEnglish
versionofthespeech:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178
Thestructuralproblemsaccumulatedbytheglobaleconomystillpersist,andwehavenotyetputoureconomyonthegrowthtrajectory.
Incidentally,currentgeopoliticaltensionsarerelated,tosomeextent,toeconomicuncertainty
andtheexhaustingoftheoldsourcesofgrowth.Thereisariskitmayincreaseorevenbeartificiallyprovoked.
Itisourcommoninteresttofindacreativeandconstructivewayoutofthissituation.
Theworldsleadingeconomiesarelookingforsourcesofgrowth,andtheyarelookingtocapitalise
ontheenormousexistingandgrowingpotentialofdigitalandindustrialtechnologies,robotics,energy,
biotechnology,medicineandotherfields.Discoveriesintheseareascanleadtotruetechnologicalrevolutions,
toanexplosivegrowthoflabourproductivity.Thisisalreadyhappeningandwillhappeninevitablythereis
impendingrestructuringofentireindustries,thedevaluationofmanyfacilitiesandassets.Thiswillalter
thedemandforskillsandcompetencies,andcompetitionwillescalateinbothtraditionalandemerging
markets.
Infact,eventodaywecanseeattemptstosecureorevenmonopolisethebenefitsofnextgeneration
technologies.This,Ithink,isthemotivebehindthecreationofrestrictedareaswithregulatorybarriers
toreducethecross-flowofbreakthroughtechnologiestootherregionsoftheworldwithfairlytightcontrolover
cooperationchainsformaximumgainfromtechnologicaladvances.Wehavediscussedthiswithour
colleaguessomesayitispossible.Ithinknot.Onecancontrolthespreadofcertaintechnologiesforawhile,
butintoday'sworlditwouldbenexttoimpossibletokeeptheminacontainedarea,evenalargearea.Yet,
theseeffortscouldleadtobasicsciences,nowopentosharingofknowledgeandinformationthroughjoint
projects,gettingclosedtoo,withseparationbarrierscomingup.
Over40statesandinternationalorganisationshaveexpressedthedesiretoestablishafreetradezonewith
theEurasianEconomicUnion.OurpartnersandwethinkthattheEAEUcanbecomeoneofthecentres
ofagreateremergentintegrationarea.Amongotherbenefits,wecanaddressambitioustechnological
problemswithinitsframework,promotetechnologicalprogressandattractnewmembers.Wediscussedthis
inAstanaquiterecently.NowweproposeconsideringtheprospectsformoreextensiveEurasianpartnership
involvingtheEAEUandcountrieswithwhichwealreadyhaveclosepartnershipChina,India,Pakistan
andIranandcertainlyourCISpartners,andotherinterestedcountriesandassociations.
AsearlyasJunewe,alongwithourChinesecolleagues,areplanningtostartofficialtalksontheformation
ofcomprehensivetradeandeconomicpartnershipinEurasiawiththeparticipationoftheEuropeanUnion
statesandChina.IexpectthatthiswillbecomeoneofthefirststepstowardtheformationofamajorEurasian
partnership.WewillcertainlyresumethediscussionofthismajorprojectattheEasternEconomicForum
inVladivostokinearlySeptember.Colleagues,Iwouldliketotakethisopportunitytoinviteallofyoutotake
partinit.
Friends,theprojectIhavejustmentionedthegreaterEurasiaprojectis,ofcourse,openforEurope,
andIamconvincedthatsuchcooperationmaybemutuallybeneficial.Despiteallofthewell-knownproblems
inourrelations,theEuropeanUnionremainsRussiaskeytradeandeconomicpartner.Itisournext-door
neighbourandwearenotindifferenttowhatishappeninginthelivesofourneighbours,Europeancountries
andtheEuropeaneconomy.
ThechallengeofthetechnologicalrevolutionandstructuralchangesarenolessurgentfortheEUthan
forRussia.IalsounderstandourEuropeanpartnerswhentheytalkaboutthecomplicateddecisionsforEurope
thatweremadeatthetalksontheformationoftheTrans-Atlanticpartnership.Obviously,Europehasavast
potentialandastakeonjustoneregionalassociationclearlynarrowsitsopportunities.Under
thecircumstances,itisdifficultforEuropetomaintainbalanceandpreservespaceforagainfulmanoeuvre.
AstherecentmeetingswithrepresentativesoftheGermanandFrenchbusinesscircleshaveshowed,
Europeanbusinessiswillingandreadytocooperatewiththiscountry.Politiciansshouldmeetbusinesses
halfwaybydisplayingwisdom,andafar-sightedandflexibleapproach.WemustreturntrusttoRussian-
Europeanrelationsandrestorethelevelofourcooperation.
Werememberhowitallstarted.Russiadidnotinitiatethecurrentbreakdown,disruption,problems
andsanctions.Allouractionshavebeenexclusivelyreciprocal.Butwedontholdagrudge,astheysay,
andarereadytomeetourEuropeanpartnershalfway.However,thiscanbynomeansbeaone-waystreet.
LetmerepeatthatweareinterestedinEuropeansjoiningtheprojectforamajorEurasianpartnership.Inthis
contextwewelcometheinitiativeofthePresidentofKazakhstanonholdingconsultationsbetween
theEurasianEconomicUnionandtheEU.Yesterdaywediscussedthisissueatthemeetingwith
thePresidentoftheEuropeanCommission.
Russiahasmanagedtoresolvethemosturgentcurrentproblemsintheeconomy.Wehopegrowthwill
resumeinthenearfuture.Wehavemaintainedreservesandsubstantiallyreducedcapitaldrainbyfivetimes
comparedwiththefirstquarterof2016.Inflationisgoingdownaswell.Ithasfallenalmostinhalfifwecompare
severalmonthsin20142015withthesameperiodin20152016.Ibelievethatitispossibletobringinflation
downto45percentasearlyasinthemid-termperspective.
Inaddition,itisnecessarytograduallydecreasethebudgetdeficitandthedependenceonrevenuesfrom
hydrocarbonsandotherrawmaterials.Thisincludescuttingournon-oilandgasdeficitatleastinhalf
inthenext5to7years.
Thecurrentslowdownisaglobaltrend.
Akeyfactorthatpredeterminestheoverallcompetitivenessoftheeconomy,marketdynamics,GDPgrowth
andhigherwagesislaborproductivity.Weneedhigherlaborproductivityatlargeandmedium-sized
enterprises:inindustry,intheconstructionandthetransportsectorsandinagriculturenolessthan5
percentayear.Thisappearstobeachallengingandevenunattainablegoal,ifwelookatwhatishappening
heretoday.Atthesametime,theexamplesofnumerousenterprises,aswellasofentiremanufacturing
sectors,suchastheaircraftindustry,thechemicalindustry,pharmaceuticsandagriculture,showthatthis
goalisquitefeasibleandrealistic.
Wewilldeveloplegislation,taxregulatorsandtechnicalstandardstoincentivisecompaniestoraiselabour
productivityandintroducelabourandenergysavingtechnology.Withthegrowthoflabourproductivity,
inefficientemploymentwillinevitablyshrink,whichmeanswewillneedtosubstantiallyincreasethelabour
marketsflexibility,toofferpeoplenewopportunities.Wewillbeabletoresolvethisproblemprimarily
bycreatingmorejobsatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses.Thenumberofpeople(whatIamgoingtosayis
veryimportant)employedatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinessesshouldgrowfromtoday's18million
byatleast1.4millionby2020andbymorethan3millionby2025.Itwillbedifficulttoincreasesupport
forsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses,andstillhardertoconsistentlybuildanicheforitsoperation.Butit
needstobedone.
Ishouldaddthatourimportreplacementprogrammeisalsoaimedatmanufacturinggoodsthatare
competitiveontheglobalmarket.Andinthissense,Iwouldalsoliketostressthatimportreplacementis
animportantstageforexpandingexportsinsectorsotherthanrawmaterialsandfindingaplaceforour
companiesinglobalmanufacturingandtechnologicalalliancesandnotinsecondaryroles,butasstrong
andeffectivepartners.
Friends,wewillcontinuetofurtherliberaliseandimprovethebusinessclimate.Iknowagreatdealhasbeen
saidaboutthisatforumeventstodayandyesterday.Wewilltacklesystemicproblems,ofwhichwestillhave
plenty.Thisincludesimprovingtransparencyandbalancingrelationsbetweengovernmentagencies
andbusinesses.Theserelationsshouldbebuiltonunderstandingandmutualresponsibility,meticulous
observanceandcompliancewithlawsandrespectfortheinterestsofthestateandsociety,
andtheunconditionalvalueoftheinstitutionofprivateproperty.
Itisessentialtodrasticallyreduceillegalcriminalprosecutions.Furthermore,representativesofsecurity
andlawenforcementagenciesshouldbemadepersonallyliableforunjustifiedactionsleading
tothedestructionofabusinessenterprise.Ibelievethatthisliabilitycanbecriminal.
Irealizethatthisisaverysensitiveissue.Wecannotandshouldnotbindourlawenforcementagencieshand
andfoot.However,withoutadoubt,thereisaneedforbalancehere,forafirmbarriertoanyabusesofpower.
TheleadershipoftheProsecutorGeneralsOffice,theInvestigativeCommittee,theInteriorMinistry
andtheFederalSecurityServiceshouldcontinuouslymonitorthesituationonthegroundand,ifnecessary,
takemeasurestoimprovelegislation.
Iasktheworkinggrouponlawenforcementinentrepreneurialactivity,whichisheadedbyChiefofStaff
ofthePresidentialExecutiveOfficeSergeiIvanov,tofocusontheseissuesaswell.IshouldaddthatIhave
alreadysubmittedtoparliamentapackageofdraftlawspreparedbytheworkinggroup,designedtohumanise
theso-calledeconomicstatutes[oftheCriminalCode].Thatsaid,itisalsoimportanttoguaranteebusinesses
andallcitizenstherighttofairandimpartialdefenceincourt.
TheRussianjudicialcommunityhasdoneagooddealrecentlytoimprovethequalityofthecourtsystem.
ThemergingoftheSupremeandtheHigherArbitrationcourtshasplayedapositiveroleinensuring
theuniformityoflawenforcement.Ibelieveitisnecessarytomovefurthertowardenhancingtheresponsibility
ofjudgesandmakingthejudicialprocessmoretransparent.
Amajorroleincreatingafavorablebusinessenvironment,withoutadoubt,belongstoRussianregions.Iknow
thatthiswasdiscussedatforumeventsinthemorning,andtheresultsoftheannualnationalinvestment
climateratingswereannounced.Iwouldliketojoinincongratulatingthewinnersandremindyouthattheseare
TatarstanandtheBelgorodandKalugaregions.Iwouldalsoliketonotethesignificantprogressmade
bytheTula,Vladimir,Tyumen,Kirov,LipetskandOrelregions,andthecityofMoscow.
Whatstandsouthere?Judgingbytheresults,acoregroupofleadershasalreadyemerged,whoareinvariably
atthetopofrankings.Thenaturalquestionis:Wherearetheothers?IasktheGovernment,inconjunctionwith
businesscommunities,toconsideradditionalmechanismstorewardthebestregionaladministrativeteams.
Ontheotherhand,wewilltakeseriousmeasures,includingdismissals,withregardtoregionalleaderswhodo
notunderstandthatbusinesssupportisamajorresourceforregionalandnationaldevelopment.Iwouldlike
mycolleaguesintheregions,aboveall,regionalleaderstohearme.Wewillseriouslyanalysewhatis
happeninginthissphereineachRussianregionanddiscusstheissueindepthintheautumn.
Ladiesandgentlemen,IhavealreadytalkedaboutRussiasparticipationincooperativescientificresearch
projects,inparticularwithEuropeancountries.Itisessentialtoaddthatwehaveacoreadvantages
inphysics,mathematicsandchemistry.Asyouknow,recentlywehonouredscientistswhowontheNational
Award,whohavemadebrilliantbreakthroughsinbiology,geneticsandmedicine.Russianmicrobiologistshave
developed,forexample,aneffectivevaccineagainstEbola.Nationalcompaniesaregoingtobringanentireline
ofunmannedvehiclestothemarketandareworkingonenergydistributionandstorage,anddigitalsea
navigationsystems.Wehavepracticallyputinplaceatechnologicaldevelopmentmanagementsystem.What
doesthisentailandwhatwouldIliketosayinthiscontext?
First.TherecentlyformedTechnologyDevelopmentAgencywillhelpapplycurrentresearchtoreal
manufacturingandsetupjointventureswithforeignpartners.
Second.Anothermechanismwillbeinusestartingin2019.Majormanufacturerswillbemadelegallybound
tousethemostadvancedtechnologiesmeetingthehighestenvironmentalstandards.Hopefully,thiswillgive
aseriousboosttoindustrialmodernisation.Manyneighbouringcountriesintroducedsuchrequirementslong
ago.Wehavehadtoputoffthesechangesduetoproblemsintherealeconomicsectors,butwecantkeep
postponingitanymore.Ourbusinesscolleaguesknowthisandmustbeprepared.
Andfinally,third.TheNationalTechnologyInitiativecoversprojectsofthefuturebasedontechnologiesthatwill
createfundamentallynewmarketsinadecadeortwo.IwouldliketoasktheGovernmenttopromptlyremove
administrative,legislativeandotherobstaclesblockingthedevelopmentoffuturemarkets.Itisessential
tobackuptechnologicaldevelopmentwithfinancialresources.Therefore,thekeytaskfacingtheoverhauled
Vnesheconombankwillbetosupportlong-termprojects,attractiveprojectsinthishigh-techsector.
Weclearlyunderstandthatitispeoplewhocreateandusetechnologies.Talentedresearchers,qualified
engineersandworkersplayacrucialroleinmakingthenationaleconomycompetitive.Thereforeeducationis
somethingweshouldpayparticularattentiontointhenextfewyears.
Colleagues,obviouslytheissuesthatwearefacingcallfornewapproachestowarddevelopment
management,andherewearedeterminedtomakeactiveuseoftheprojectprinciple.Apresidentialcouncil
forstrategicdevelopmentandpriorityprojectswillbecreatedinthenearfuture.Itwillbeheadedbyyour
humbleservant,whilethecouncilpresidiumwillbeledbyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev.
Thecouncilwilldealwithkeyprojectsaimedateffectingstructuralchangesintheeconomyandthesocial
sphere,andincreasinggrowthrates.Ihavespokenaboutsomeoftheseprojectstoday:raisinglabour
productivity,thebusinessclimate,supportforsmallandmedium-sizedbusiness,andexportsupport,among
others.
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehaveagreed
upon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,andthenIwill
widenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.Westartedalittlebitlate,
sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.
PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnionsanctions
andUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildupforces
instatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-grade,lower-
levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?
Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpectedoverall
prosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speakinginmodernterms:
economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,aggressionofinternational
terror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitantsintheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,
andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupportfromourpartnersinourstrugglewith
theseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupportfortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedo
notacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,onlyatthetechnological.
Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrativebackup.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATOcontinues
toexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.Montenegroisbecoming
a[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionisbeingtotallyignored.
Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]from
theABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnitedStates
foragoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.
Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquitthetreaty,
sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensivearms,andwe
assumeitisnotaimedagainstus.
Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwasstruggling
withitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,tortured
byterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainourarsenals,let
alonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefenceforcesunilaterally
whileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.
AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.WhathasbecomeoftheIranian
nuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,stepbystep,oneafter
another,andsoon.
Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.Theyfervently
supportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?Chaos.
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenotcoordinated
thensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekoutabalance
ofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,butitis
theonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.
Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArabSpring,
theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?Ihaveoften
spokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatisinpowernow
wouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.Wewouldhaveworkedwith
themaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresidentYanukovych.
speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,simply
hadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,ratchetingup
tensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistenceoftheNorthAtlantic
bloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthisorganisationnecessary
inthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirectedagainst?
Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeachother,
thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperationandthesearch
forcompromise.(Applause.)
isthewayout?
IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthroughthenight.
Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreedultimatelythat
politicalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.
Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutionalamendments
thathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobeseen.Thelaw
onaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhavebeenputinto
practice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeintoeffect.Thereshould
havebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasneversignedbythepresident,it
hasnoeffect.
Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduringananti-
terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountryholdelection
campaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?
They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarianrestoration.
Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolenceonthefrontlinesisjust
anexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachotherofopeningfire.Whydoyou
thinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,ItisUkrainiangovernmentforces,
theUkrainianarmy.
Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisisagood
enoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitutethefoundation
ofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedonetoimprove
security.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelackofsecurity
inthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)
FareedZakaria:Therearesomanyareastocoverwithyou,MrPresident,soletmegototheMiddle
East,whereRussiahashadaforcefulinterventiontobolstertheAssadregime.PresidentAssadnowsays
thathisgoalistotakebackeverysquareinchofhisterritory.DoyoubelievethatthesolutioninSyriais
thattheAssadregimeshouldtakebackandgoverneverysquareinchofSyria?
VladimirPutin:IthinkthattheproblemsofSyria,ofcourse,concernprimarilytheanti-terroriststruggle,
butthereismoretoit.ItgoeswithoutsayingthattheSyrianconflictisrootedincontradictionswithin
Syriansociety,andPresidentBasharal-Assadunderstandsthisverywell.Thetaskisnotjusttoexpand
controlovervariousterritories,althoughthisisveryimportant.Thepointistoensuretheconfidence
oftheentiresocietyandtrustbetweendifferentpartsofthissociety,andtoestablishonthisfoundation
amodernandefficientgovernmentthatwillbetrustedbythecountrysentirepopulation.Andpolitical
negotiationsaretheonlyroadtothis.Wehaveurgedthismorethanonce.Presidental-Assadalsospoke
aboutthisheacceptsthisprocess.
Whatneedstobedonetoday?ItisnecessarytojoinmoreactivelytheprocessofformingthenewConstitution
andtoconduct,onthisbasis,futureelections,bothpresidentialandparliamentary.WhenPresidental-Assad
wasinMoscow,wespokeaboutthiswithhimandhefullyagreedwiththis.Moreover,itisextremelyimportant
toconducttheelectionsunderstrictinternationalcontrol,withtheparticipationoftheUnitedNations.
YesterdaywediscussedthisissueindetailwithMrdeMisturaandtheUNSecretary-General.Theyallagree
withthis,butweneedaction.Wehopeverymuchthatourpartners,primarilyfromtheUnitedStates,willwork
withtheiralliesthatsupporttheoppositiontoencourageconstructivecooperationwiththeSyrianauthorities.
Whatdowemeanbythis?Ingeneral,whenIaskmycolleagues:Whyareyoudoingthis?theyreply:
Toasserttheprinciplesofdemocracy.Presidental-Assadsregimeisnotdemocraticandthetriumph
ofdemocracymustbeensured.Fine.Isdemocracyeverywherethere?No,notyetbutdemocracyshould
existinSyria.Ok.Andhowdoyoumakesocietydemocratic?Isitonlypossibletoachievethisbyforce
ofarmsorsimplybyforce?No,thismaybedoneonlywiththehelpofdemocraticinstitutions
andprocedures.Andwhataretheyallabout?Thereisnomoredemocraticwayofformingagovernmentthan
electionsonthebasisoffundamentallaw:aConstitutionthatisformulatedinaclearway,thatistransparent
andacceptedbytheoverwhelmingmajorityofsociety.PasstheConstitutionandholdelectionsonitsbasis.
Whatsbadaboutthis,especiallyiftheyareheldunderinternationalcontrol?
Occasionallywehearthatsomecountriesoftheregiondonotfullyunderstandwhatdemocracyis.Dowe
wanttoreplaceoneundemocraticregimewithanotherundemocraticone?Andifwestillwanttopromote
theprincipleofdemocracyletsdothisbydemocraticmeans.Butconsideringthisisacomplicatedprocess
andresultswillnotcometomorroworthedayaftertomorrowbutwillrequiretime,whilewestillneedtodo
somethingtoday,Iagreewiththeproposalsofourpartners,primarilyourAmericanpartnersthatsuggest
(Idontknow,maybeImsayingtoomuchalthough,ontheotherhand,thisUSproposalisknownintheregion,
andthenegotiatorsofbothsidesthegovernmentandtheoppositionarefamiliarwithitandIconsiderit
absolutelyacceptable),theysuggestedconsideringthepossibilityofbringingrepresentativesoftheopposition
intoexistingpowerstructures,forinstance,theGovernment.Itisnecessarytothinkaboutwhatpowersthis
Governmentwillhave.
However,itisimportantnottogotoofar.Itisnecessarytoproceedfromthecurrentrealitiesandtorefrainfrom
declaringunfeasible,unrealisticgoals.ManyofourpartnersaresayingthatAssadshouldgo.Todaytheyare
sayingno,letsrestructuregoverninginstitutionsinsuchandsuchaway,butinpracticaltermsitwillalso
meanhisdeparture.Butthisisalsounrealistic.Therefore,itisnecessarytoactcarefully,stepbystep,
graduallywinningtheconfidenceofallsidestotheconflict.
Ifthishappens,andIthinkthiswillhappeninanyeventandthesoonerthebetter,itwillbepossibletogo
furtherandspeakbothaboutsubsequentelectionsandafinalsettlement.Themainpointistoprevent
thecountryscollapse.Andifthingscontinuetogoastheyaretoday,collapsewillbecomeinevitable.Andthis
istheworst-casescenariobecausewecannotassumethatafterthecountryscollapsesomequasi-state
formationswillco-existinpeaceandharmony.No,thiswillbeadestabilisingfactorfortheregionandtherest
oftheworld.
this!Dontyou?
Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewillwork
withanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,theylecture
everyoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthereare
democratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstandingbehind
thoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehavedebates
withourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:Donot
meddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:Wellthen,do
notmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.
internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreatentojail
them.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americaisagreat
power,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnitedStatesandwe
arepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.Therewillbea[new]head
ofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomicprocessesatwork
intheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,andwealsoneedit.Butwe
donotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,andpreventingEuropefrombuilding
arelationshipwithus.
HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.Itcouldnot
carelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehavenoimpactonit.
TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansaretellingtheirpartners:
Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithourcountry
andhelpbuildamoresecureworld.
Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]Gromyko.
(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?
IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icanevensay
thatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveraloccasions,
heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.IrememberthisandIam
gratefultohim.
AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,there
issomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-USrelationsorwith
nationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.
Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjobandafterward.
Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibilitytheybegintotalk
andthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesenseofresponsibility
oftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworlddependstoday,thatthis
senseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperatewithRussiaand,Iwouldlike
torepeat,buildamoresecureworld.
FareedZakaria:PresidentPutin,letmefinallyaskyouonequestionaboutnewsreportsaboutRussian
athletes.TherearenowtwomajorinvestigationsthathaveshownthatRussianathleteshaveengaged
indopingonamassivescale,andthattherehasbeenasystematicevasionanddoctoringoftestingandlab
samples.AndIwasjustwonderingwhatyoureactiontothesereportsis.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotunderstandwhatkindofprogrammeitistotamperwiththesamplesthatwere
collectedfortests?Ifsamplesarecollectedtheyareimmediatelytransferredtointernationalorganisations
forstorageandwehavenothingtodowiththem.Samplesarecollectedandtakensomewhere,
toLausanneorwherever,Idonotknowwhere,buttheyarenotonRussianterritory.Theycanbe
opened,re-checked,andthisiswhatspecialistsaredoingnow.
DopingisnotonlyaRussianproblem.Itisaproblemoftheentiresportsworld.Ifsomebodytriestopoliticise
somethinginthissphere,Ithinkthisisabigmistake,becausejustlikeculture,forexample,sportcannotbe
politicised.Thesearethebridgesthatbringpeople,nationsandstatesclosertogether.Thisistheway
toapproachit,nottrytoforgesomeanti-Russianoranti-whateverpolicyonthisbasis.
AsfortheRussianauthorities,Icanassureyou,wearecategoricallyagainstalldopingforseveralreasons.
First,asaformeramateurathlete,Icantellyou,andIthinkthattheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeoplewillagree
withthis:ifweknowthereisdoping,itsnotinterestingtowatchtheeventmillionsoffansloseinterest
inthesport.
Second,nolessimportant,andmaybeevenmostimportant,thereisthehealthoftheathletesthemselves.
Youcantjustifyanythingthatdamageshealth.Thisiswhywehavecombatedandwillcontinuetocombat
dopinginsportonthenationallevel.
Furthermore,asfarasIknow,theProsecutorGeneralsOfficeandtheInvestigativeCommitteehavebeen
closelylookingintoallfactsreportedinthemedia,amongothers.Simply,thismustnotbeturnedinto
acampaign,especiallyacampaigndisparagingsport,includingRussiansport.
Next,thethirdpointIwouldliketomake.Thereisalegalconceptthatsaysresponsibilitycanonlybe
individual.Collectiveresponsibilitycannotbeimposedonallathletesorathletesofacertainsportsfederationif
certainindividualshavebeencaughtdoping.Anentireteamcannotbeheldresponsibleforthosewhohave
committedthisviolation.Ibelievethatthisisanabsolutelynatural,correctapproach.
However,dopingisnottheonlyproblemtoday.Thereareplentyofproblemsinsport.Euro2016isunderway.
Ibelievethatlessattentionisbeingpaidtofootballthantobrawlingbetweenfans.ThisisverysadandIregret
this,butheretooweshouldalwaysproceedfromsomegeneralcriteria.Toreiterate,responsibility
formisconductshouldbeindividualisedasmuchaspossibleandtheapproachtowardperpetratorsshouldbe
thesame.
Euro2016beganwithahigh-profilecase:afightbetweenRussianandBritishfans.Thisisabsolutely
outrageous.Granted,Idonotknowhow200RussianfanswereabletopummelseveralthousandBritons.Ido
notunderstand.Butinanycase,lawenforcementagenciesshouldtakethesameapproachtowardall
perpetrators.
Thisisthewaywehaveorganisedthisworkandwillcontinuetocombatdopingandenforcedisciplineamong
fans.Wewillworkwiththesefanassociations.Iverymuchhopethatthereareplentyofintelligent,sensible
peopleamongthefans,whoreallylovesportandwhounderstandthatviolationsdonothingtosupporttheir
teambut,onthecontrary,causedamagetotheteamandtosport.However,agreatdealhasyettobedone
here,includinginconjunctionwithour[foreign]colleagues.
Iwouldliketostressthattherehasbeenabsolutelynosupportandcanbeabsolutelynosupportforviolations
insport,letalonedopingviolations,atthestatelevel.Wehaveworkedandwillcontinuetoworkwithall
internationalorganisationsinthissphere.
<>
ThisisthefirstSt.PetersburgforumnotshunnedbyWesternpoliticalelitesinacoupleofyearsRussiawantstoshowWestern
businessthattherearepossibilitiesforreformThesanctionshavenotbeenremoved,theMinskagreementsnotfulfilled,butthere
hasbeenacertainloweringoftensionsTheKremliniscautiouslyrehabilitatingthesystemicliberalsKudrinhasinformalstatus
asthemainreformer,withassistancefromGrefVlast,notveryconvincingly,ismakingnoisesaboutimprovingconditionsfor
privatebusinessGestureshavebeenmadetoeasetensionswiththeWestSavchenko,forexample,wasreleasedtheresa
certainwearinesswithconfrontationTherehasbeensomemovementawayfromtheconservativetrenddomestically
Pavlenskiyhasbeenreleased(http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-pavlensky-artist-fined-cultural-site-fsb/27786266.html)...The
messagetoWesterninvestorsisclearRussiadoesnotwanttobeNorthKoreaorevenBelarusRussianeedsdirectinvestment
andbudgetproblemsarepushingvlasttowardmakingapoliticaldecisiononstructuralreforms
ThewearinessofbothRussiaandtheWestwithsanctionsinthemid-termcouldatleastleadtotheirweakening.Thedeclineofthe
economyhassloweddownandsomeoptimistsexpectgrowthbytheendoftheyearTheUkrainecrisiscouldberoutinized,
pushedtothebackburnerinfavorofcooperatingoncombattingterrorismPutinwantstolowertensionswiththeAmericans
Yetthearbitrarybehaviorofcourts,taxterrorism,corruption,andnightmaringbusinesseshaveonlybecomeworseAverage
investorswithoutspecialconnectionsarewaitingforasignofvlastsintensionsandofamoretransparenteconomicpolicyIts
doubtfulthatwillhappenandforeignbusinesssurelyunderstandsthatForeigninvestorswanttoknowaboutconcrete
economicdevelopmentplans,taxpolicy,aboutwhetherGlazyevistakenseriouslyandwhetherKudrinisaroundjustforwindow
dressing.Arethesilovikytakingpartindiscussionsoneconomicpolicytemporarilyoristheyheretostay?
Putinwantstheeconomytoimprove,butwithoutchanginganythinginstitutionallyThewaytohaveinfluenceinRussiais
througharelationshipwithoneofPutinsfriends,whooftenhavemoreinfluencethanministers.Soinvestorswanttoknowwhata
particularpersonsaccesstoPutinreallyis,whatkindofinfluenceapersonmighthaveonaministerAndinvestorsseeasociety
thatisdistrustful,evenhatefultowardtheWest,onewhereoppositionpoliticalfiguresareindanger,whereonehastobewaryof
provocationsbycompetitorsAndtheYukoscase,theMagnitskiyaffair,andthecaseagainsttheownersandmanagersof
Domodedovoairportarestillverymuchonthemindsofforeigninvestors
InRussia,ifyoumoveoneway,youloseyourbusiness,anotherandyouloseyourlife.Ifyoumovejustright,youcanbecomea
billionaire
http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_18809/all
RussiasconciliatorygesturestoAmericaarebeingmadefortworeasons:One,becauseitistheAmericansblockingEuropean
revisionismregardingRussiaandtwo,becauseMoscowisworriedaboutreputationalscandalstheremaybemoretocome,
provokingaspiltintheRussianelite
HTTP://WWW.YAHOO.COM/NEWS/GERMANY-SLAMS-NATO-WARMONGERING-RUSSIA-115515814.HTML?REF=GS
GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierhascriticisedNATOforhavingabellicosepolicytowardsRussia,describingitas
"warmongering",theGermandailyBildreported.
SteinmeierpointedtothedeploymentofNATOtroopsnearborderswithRussiainthemilitaryalliance'sBalticandeastEuropean
memberstates.
"Whatweshouldavoidtodayisinflamingthesituationbywarmongeringandstompingboots,"SteinmeiertoldBildinaninterviewto
bepublishedSunday.
"Anyonewhothinksyoucanincreasesecurityinthealliancewithsymbolicparadesoftanksneartheeasternborders,ismistaken,"
Germany'stopdiplomatadded.
NATOhadannouncedonMondaythatitwoulddeployfourbattalionstoEstonia,Latvia,LithuaniaandPolandtocounteramore
assertiveRussia,aheadofalandmarksummitinWarsawnextmonth.
AllfourcountrieswereonceruledfromMoscowandremaindeeplysuspiciousofRussianintentions,especiallyafterRussia's
annexationofCrimeafromUkrainein2014.
InaninterviewwithBildonThursday,NATOchiefJensStoltenbergsaidRussiaisseekingtocreate"azoneofinfluencethrough
militarymeans".
"WeareobservingmassivemilitarisationatNATOborders--intheArctic,intheBaltic,fromtheBlackSeatotheMediterranean
Sea,"hetoldthenewspaper.
StoltenberghasstressedthatNATOdoesnotseekconfrontationwithRussiaandwantsaconstructivedialoguebutthatitwould
defendthe28alliesagainstanythreat
RussiabitterlyopposesNATO'sexpansionintoitsSoviet-erasatellitesandlastmonthsaiditwouldcreatethreenewdivisionsinits
southwestregiontomeetwhatitdescribedasadangerousmilitarybuild-upalongitsborders.
Senttime: 06/17/201611:24:14PM
BCc: swallen@1scom.netchris.bort@gmail.comnaterey80@gmail.comdonald.jensen8@gmail.com
PutinatStPForum(economic&geopoliticalcrisesconnectednotofortressRussia(technology)?EESChina&BigEurasianewgrowth?SME
Subject: Siloviki&criminalresponsibility(asubtlething)newapproachesMedvedevCouncilsanctions/coldwarMDOPKcoupinUkraineNATO
MinskAsadTrump&Clinton
http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178
172016 16:20 -
00:00/00:00
XX
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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.

Mr Putin called on the International Olympic Committee (IOC), to intervene.

Doping, violence: What's gone wrong with Russian sport?

Russian Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko facing reporters, 8 Jun 16

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