Trump 2

From: SBallas<spirob7@gmail.
com>
Senttime: 07/30/201605:12:13PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:SLOAT
Sheshowed!
IhadheardaboutKaganmakingtheswitch-justunderscoresmypointthatifHillarywins,I'llbescratchingmyheadaboutwhy
WEareinAleppo...
OnSaturday,July30,2016,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
>
>http://theintercept.com/2016/07/25/robert-kagan-and-other-neocons-back-hillary-clinton/
>
>RobertKaganandOtherNeoconsAreBackingHillaryClinton
>
>AsHillaryClintonputstogetherwhatshehopeswillbeawinningcoalitioninNovember,manyprogressivesremainwarybut
shehasthewarhawksfirmlybehindher.
>
>IwouldsayallRepublicanforeignpolicyprofessionalsareanti-Trump,leadingneoconservativeRobertKagantoldagroup
gatheredaroundhim,groupie-style,ataforeignpolicyprofessionalsforHillaryfundraiserIattendedlastweek.Iwouldsaythat
amajorityofpeopleinmycirclewillvoteforHillary.
>
>Astheco-founderoftheneoconservativethinktankProjectfortheNewAmericanCentury,Kaganplayedaleadingrolein
pushingforAmericasunilateralinvasionofIraqandinsistedforyearsafterwardthatithadturnedoutgreat.
>
>Despitethecatastrophiceffectsofthatwar,KaganinsistedatlastweeksfundraiserthatU.S.foreignpolicyoverthelast25
yearshasbeenanextraordinarysuccess.
>
>RepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrumpsknow-nothingisolationismhasledmanyneoconstofleetheRepublicanticket.
Andsome,likeKagan,areactivelyhelpingClinton,whosehawkishnessinmanywaysresemblestheirown.
>
>Theeventraised$25,000forClinton.TworisingstarsintheDemocraticforeignpolicyestablishment,AmandaSloatand
JulianneSmith,alsospoke.
>
>ThewaytheydescribedClintonsforeignpolicyvisionsuggestedthatifelectedpresidentinNovember,shewillescalatetensions
withRussia,doubledownonmilitarybelligerenceintheMiddleEast,andgenerallyignoretheAmericanpublicsgrowinghostility
tointervention.
>
>Sloat,theformerdeputyassistantsecretaryofstateintheBureauofEuropeanandEurasianAffairs,boastedthatClintonwillbe
moreinterventionistandforward-leaningthanObamasbeeninSyria.ShealsoapplaudedClintonfordoinginterventiontheright
way,throughcoalitionsinsteadoftheunilateralaggressionthatdefinedtheBushyears.
>
>Nothingthat[Clinton]didwasmoreclearthantheNATOcoalitionthatshebuilttodefendciviliansinLibya,saidSloat,
referencingtheObamaadministrationsoverthrowofLibyandictatorMuammarGaddafi.Thatpolicy,spearheadedbyClinton,has
transformedaonce-stablestateintoalawlesshavenforextremistgroupsfromacrosstheregion,includingISIS.
>
>KaganhasadvocatedformuscularAmericaninterventioninSyriaClintonslikelypickforPentagonchief,MichelleFlournoy,
hassimilarlyagitatedforredirectingU.S.airstrikesinSyriatowardoustingSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.
>
>SmithtoldtheaudiencethatunlikeTrump,ClintonunderstandstheimportanceofdeterringRussianaggression,whichiswhy
Illsleepbetterwithherinthechair.SheisaformerdeputynationalsecurityadvisertoVicePresidentJoeBiden.
>
>SmithleftthegovernmenttobecomeseniorvicepresidentofBeaconGlobalStrategies,ahigh-poweredbipartisanconsulting
groupfoundedbyformerhigh-rankingnationalsecurityofficials.
>
>WhenRobbieMartin,afilmmakerwhorecentlyproducedathree-partdocumentaryontheneoconservativemovement,asked
howClintonplanstodealwithUkraine,Kaganrespondedenthusiastically.
>
>IknowHillarycaresmoreaboutUkrainethanthecurrentpresidentdoes,Kaganreplied.[Obama]saidtome[thathe
wouldntarmUkrainebecause]hedoesntwantanuclearwarwithRussia,headded,rollinghiseyesdismissively.Idontthink
ObamacaresaboutPutinanymoreatall.Ithinkheshopeless.
>
>KaganismarriedtoVictoriaNuland,theObamaadministrationshardlineassistantsecretaryofstateforEuropeanandEurasian
Affairs.Nuland,whowouldlikelyserveinaseniorpositioninaClintonadministration,supportsshippingweaponstoUkraine
despitemajoroppositionfromEuropeancountriesandconcernsabouttheneo-Nazielementsthoseweaponswouldempower.
>
>Anotherthingneoconservativesandliberalhawkshaveincommonisconfidencethattheforeignpolicyestablishmentisright,and
thegrowingpopulisthostilitytomilitaryinterventionisnaveanduninformed.
>
>KagancomplainedthatAmericansaresofocusedonthethingsthathavegonewronginrecentyears,theymissthesortofbasic
underlyingunusualqualityoftheinternationalorderthatwevebeenlivingin.
>
>ItsnotjustDonaldTrump,Kagansaid.Ithinkyoucanfindinbothpartiesaverystrongsensethatwedontneedtobeout
thereanymore.
>
>If,asIhope,HillaryClintoniselected,sheisgoingtoimmediatelybeconfrontingacountrythatisnotwheresheis,hesaid.
Sheisabelieverinthisworldorder.Butagreatsectionofthecountryisnotandisgoingtorequirepersuasionandeducation.
>
>Sloatagreed,arguingthatitsdangerousforpeopletodrawanti-interventionistlessonsfromLibyaandIraq.
>
>TheClinton-neoconpartnershipwassolidifiedbyTrumpbecomingtheRepublicannominee.Buttheiraffinityforeachotherhas
grownsteadilyovertime.
>
>TheneoconservativeWeeklyStandardcelebratedClintons2008appointmentassecretaryofstateasavictoryfortheright,
hailinghertransformationfromFirstFeministtoWarriorQueen,moreMargaretThatcherthanGloriaSteinem.
>
>ButthefundraiserwasperhapsthemostoutwardmanifestationyetoftheconvergencebetweentheDemocraticforeignpolicy
establishmentandtheneoconservativemovement.
>
>HannahMorrisoftheliberalpro-IsraellobbyinggroupJStreetcelebratedthisbipartisanshipasamomentousoccasion.
>
>Wecouldnotbemoreproudtohave[Kagan]heretoday,shesaid.
From: SBallas<spirob7@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/30/201605:12:13PM
Subject: Re:SLOAT
Sheshowed!
IhadheardaboutKaganmakingtheswitch-justunderscoresmypointthatifHillarywins,I'llbescratchingmyheadaboutwhy
WEareinAleppo...
OnSaturday,July30,2016,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
>
>http://theintercept.com/2016/07/25/robert-kagan-and-other-neocons-back-hillary-clinton/
>
>RobertKaganandOtherNeoconsAreBackingHillaryClinton
>
>AsHillaryClintonputstogetherwhatshehopeswillbeawinningcoalitioninNovember,manyprogressivesremainwarybut
shehasthewarhawksfirmlybehindher.
>
>IwouldsayallRepublicanforeignpolicyprofessionalsareanti-Trump,leadingneoconservativeRobertKagantoldagroup
gatheredaroundhim,groupie-style,ataforeignpolicyprofessionalsforHillaryfundraiserIattendedlastweek.Iwouldsaythat
amajorityofpeopleinmycirclewillvoteforHillary.
>
>Astheco-founderoftheneoconservativethinktankProjectfortheNewAmericanCentury,Kaganplayedaleadingrolein
pushingforAmericasunilateralinvasionofIraqandinsistedforyearsafterwardthatithadturnedoutgreat.
>
>Despitethecatastrophiceffectsofthatwar,KaganinsistedatlastweeksfundraiserthatU.S.foreignpolicyoverthelast25
yearshasbeenanextraordinarysuccess.
>
>RepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrumpsknow-nothingisolationismhasledmanyneoconstofleetheRepublicanticket.
Andsome,likeKagan,areactivelyhelpingClinton,whosehawkishnessinmanywaysresemblestheirown.
>
>Theeventraised$25,000forClinton.TworisingstarsintheDemocraticforeignpolicyestablishment,AmandaSloatand
JulianneSmith,alsospoke.
>
>ThewaytheydescribedClintonsforeignpolicyvisionsuggestedthatifelectedpresidentinNovember,shewillescalatetensions
withRussia,doubledownonmilitarybelligerenceintheMiddleEast,andgenerallyignoretheAmericanpublicsgrowinghostility
tointervention.
>
>Sloat,theformerdeputyassistantsecretaryofstateintheBureauofEuropeanandEurasianAffairs,boastedthatClintonwillbe
moreinterventionistandforward-leaningthanObamasbeeninSyria.ShealsoapplaudedClintonfordoinginterventiontheright
way,throughcoalitionsinsteadoftheunilateralaggressionthatdefinedtheBushyears.
>
>Nothingthat[Clinton]didwasmoreclearthantheNATOcoalitionthatshebuilttodefendciviliansinLibya,saidSloat,
referencingtheObamaadministrationsoverthrowofLibyandictatorMuammarGaddafi.Thatpolicy,spearheadedbyClinton,has
transformedaonce-stablestateintoalawlesshavenforextremistgroupsfromacrosstheregion,includingISIS.
>
>KaganhasadvocatedformuscularAmericaninterventioninSyriaClintonslikelypickforPentagonchief,MichelleFlournoy,
hassimilarlyagitatedforredirectingU.S.airstrikesinSyriatowardoustingSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.
>
>SmithtoldtheaudiencethatunlikeTrump,ClintonunderstandstheimportanceofdeterringRussianaggression,whichiswhy
Illsleepbetterwithherinthechair.SheisaformerdeputynationalsecurityadvisertoVicePresidentJoeBiden.
>
>SmithleftthegovernmenttobecomeseniorvicepresidentofBeaconGlobalStrategies,ahigh-poweredbipartisanconsulting
groupfoundedbyformerhigh-rankingnationalsecurityofficials.
>
>WhenRobbieMartin,afilmmakerwhorecentlyproducedathree-partdocumentaryontheneoconservativemovement,asked
howClintonplanstodealwithUkraine,Kaganrespondedenthusiastically.
>
>IknowHillarycaresmoreaboutUkrainethanthecurrentpresidentdoes,Kaganreplied.[Obama]saidtome[thathe
wouldntarmUkrainebecause]hedoesntwantanuclearwarwithRussia,headded,rollinghiseyesdismissively.Idontthink
ObamacaresaboutPutinanymoreatall.Ithinkheshopeless.
>
>KaganismarriedtoVictoriaNuland,theObamaadministrationshardlineassistantsecretaryofstateforEuropeanandEurasian
Affairs.Nuland,whowouldlikelyserveinaseniorpositioninaClintonadministration,supportsshippingweaponstoUkraine
despitemajoroppositionfromEuropeancountriesandconcernsabouttheneo-Nazielementsthoseweaponswouldempower.
>
>Anotherthingneoconservativesandliberalhawkshaveincommonisconfidencethattheforeignpolicyestablishmentisright,and
thegrowingpopulisthostilitytomilitaryinterventionisnaveanduninformed.
>
>KagancomplainedthatAmericansaresofocusedonthethingsthathavegonewronginrecentyears,theymissthesortofbasic
underlyingunusualqualityoftheinternationalorderthatwevebeenlivingin.
>
>ItsnotjustDonaldTrump,Kagansaid.Ithinkyoucanfindinbothpartiesaverystrongsensethatwedontneedtobeout
thereanymore.
>
>If,asIhope,HillaryClintoniselected,sheisgoingtoimmediatelybeconfrontingacountrythatisnotwheresheis,hesaid.
Sheisabelieverinthisworldorder.Butagreatsectionofthecountryisnotandisgoingtorequirepersuasionandeducation.
>
>Sloatagreed,arguingthatitsdangerousforpeopletodrawanti-interventionistlessonsfromLibyaandIraq.
>
>TheClinton-neoconpartnershipwassolidifiedbyTrumpbecomingtheRepublicannominee.Buttheiraffinityforeachotherhas
grownsteadilyovertime.
>
>TheneoconservativeWeeklyStandardcelebratedClintons2008appointmentassecretaryofstateasavictoryfortheright,
hailinghertransformationfromFirstFeministtoWarriorQueen,moreMargaretThatcherthanGloriaSteinem.
>
>ButthefundraiserwasperhapsthemostoutwardmanifestationyetoftheconvergencebetweentheDemocraticforeignpolicy
establishmentandtheneoconservativemovement.
>
>HannahMorrisoftheliberalpro-IsraellobbyinggroupJStreetcelebratedthisbipartisanshipasamomentousoccasion.
>
>Wecouldnotbemoreproudtohave[Kagan]heretoday,shesaid.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/31/201609:36:53AM
To: Paul<pmstronski@gmail.com>
HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook-TheNewYorkTimesIhavenorecollectionoftheincidentwiththebusinessmen.Doyou?(there'snolink
Subject:
either)
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/31/opinion/sunday/how-to-counter-the-putin-playbook.html
HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook
ByMICHAELA.McFAUL JULY30,2016
138
ArallyinRedSquare,Moscow,onMarch18,2014,whenPresidentVladimirV.Putin
askedtheRussianParliamenttomaketheannexationofCrimeaofficial.
JamesHillforTheNewYorkTimes
PaloAlto,Calif.Aquarter-centuryago,attheendoftheColdWar,itseemed
thatonlydemocraciespromotedtheirvaluesabroad.Today,autocracieshave
enteredthearenaagain,exportingtheirideasandmethodseventotheUnited
States.
Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.
SincereturningtotheKremlinin2012,Mr.Putinhasconsolidatedhisholdon
powerinRussia.Withrenewedvigor,hesweakenedcivilsociety,undermined
independentmedia,suppressedanyoppositionandscaredoffbigbusinessfrom
supportinggovernmentcritics.AndhemadetheUnitedStatesanditssenior
officialsunwittingelementsofhismalignstrategy.
WhileIwastheUnitedStatesambassadortoRussia,Mr.PutinaccusedPresident
Obamasadministrationofseekingtofomentrevolutionagainsthimas,
allegedly,wehaddoneinTunisia,Egypt,LibyaandSyriaduringtheArabSpring.
Russiasstate-controlledmediaportrayedRussianprotestersastraitors,
puppetsoftheUnitedStates,whotookmoneyandordersfromWashington.Mr.
PutintookspecialoffensetoHillaryClinton,thensecretaryofstate,claimingher
criticismofthefairnessofthe2011Russianparliamentaryelectionwasasignal
toRussiandemonstrators.
Whilechastisingusforsupposedlymeddlinginhisinternalaffairs,Mr.Putin
expandedhiscampaigntoweakendemocracyabroad.Kremlin-alignedmedia
liketheTVstationRThavechampionedhispoliciesinternationally,while
challengingthelegitimacyofdemocraticleaders,includingourownpresident.
Aroundtheworld,butespeciallyinEurope,theRussiangovernmentsupports
bybothrhetoricalandfinancialmeanspoliticalpartiesandorganizationswith
illiberal,nationalistagendas.Russias2014annexationofCrimeaandits
interventionineasternUkraineinsupportofseparatists,aswellastheinvasion
ofGeorgiain2008,wereviolenteffortstodestabilizenewdemocracies.
ManyareimpressedandaimtocopythePutinplaybook.AutocratsinAsia,the
MiddleEastandAfricahaveemulatedMr.Putinsdraconianlawsrestrictingcivil
societygroups.TheleaderofFrancesfar-rightNationalFront,MarineLePen,
haspraisedMr.Putinandhispoliciesherpartyhastakena$10millionloan
fromaRussianbankandseeksanother$30millionfornextyearspresidential
election.TwochampionsoftheBrexitcampaignNigelFarage,theformer
leaderoftheanti-immigrantU.K.IndependenceParty,andBorisJohnson,a
ConservativememberofParliamentandnowBritainsforeignministerhave
spokenfondlyofMr.Putin.So,too,doesHungarysincreasinglyauthoritarian
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.
Aswellasovertmeans,Mr.Putinhasdeployedcybermethodsofsubversion.
Thisweek,WikiLeaksreleasedemailsstolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Thisactionbyaforeignagentpromptedtheresignationofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteechairwomanandraisednewelectoralchallenges
fortheDemocratspresidentialnominee,HillaryClinton.Americanintelligence
agencieshavehighconfidencethattheRussiangovernmentstolethedata
andlikelyalsohackedintotheClintoncampaignscomputersystems.Whilewe
cantbecertainyetwhetheritsagentspassedthedatadirectlytoWikiLeaks,the
circumstantialevidencepointsoverwhelminglytoRussia.Whoelse?
WealsoknowthatRussiasuseofsignalsintelligencetoadvancean
antidemocraticagendaisnotanewtactic.Ihavefirsthandexperience.During
mystintasambassador,RussianagentssecretlyrecordedaconversationIhad
withAmericanbusinessexecutivesataMoscowhotelandpublishedmyremarks
inawaytomakeitsoundasiftheUnitedStateswasplottingagainsttheRussian
government.In2014,aninterceptedphonecallbetweenAmericasambassador
inUkraineandAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwasleakedto
suggestthatWashingtonwaschoosingthenewgovernmentinKiev.Against
Russianoppositionleaders,theKremlindeployssuchtacticsallthetime.
Mr.Putinmaybetheboldestbutheisnotaloneinthisgrowingmovement.
Chinaseconomicsuccesschallengesdemocracysappeal.Iraniantheocratshold
ontopowerathomeanddefendautocratslikePresidentBasharal-Assadof
Syria.ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,strongmenlikePresidentAbdelFattahel-
SisiofEgyptareascendant,forcingtheircitizensandforeignalliestoaccepttheir
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.
Mr.PutinisexpandinghisplaybookjustwhenAmericaisroiledbystrong
isolationistcurrentsandaggravatedbydemagogythatwouldhaveusdisengage
frommultilateralinstitutionslikeNATO,cutouroverseassecuritycommitments
andstopdefendinghumanrightsabroad.ThisisMr.Trumpsargument.When
itcomestocivilliberties,ourcountryhasalotofproblems,hesaidthismonth,
andIthinkitsveryhardforustogetinvolvedinothercountrieswhenwedont
knowwhatwearedoingandwecantseestraightinourowncountry.
Toinspiredemocracyabroad,wemustofcoursepracticeitbetterathome.But
weshouldrejectthemoralrelativismthatsaysbecauseourownunionisnot
perfect,wearenodifferentfromthedespots.
Wewillnotfindsecurityinisolationism.Nomissiledefenseshield,cybersecurity
program,tarifforborderwallcanprotectusifwedisengage.Menacing
autocracies,illiberalideas,andantidemocraticandterroristmovementswillnot
justleaveusaloneorwitheraway.Thethreatswillgrowandeventually
endangerourpeace,aswesawinEuropeandJapaninthe1930s,and
Afghanistaninthe1990s.
Conversely,thegrowthofdemocracyaroundtheworldservesAmerican
interests.Democraciesdonotthreatenusautocraciesdo.Democraticalliesalso
votewithusattheUnitedNations,gotowarwithus,supportinternational
treatiesandnorms,andstandwithusagainsttyranny.
Sowemustpushback,innewways.JustastheKremlinhasbecomemore
sophisticatedatexportingitsideasandsupportingitsfriends,somustwe.
Weshouldthinkofadvancingdemocraticideasabroadprimarilyasan
educationalproject,almostneverasamilitarycampaign.Universities,booksand
websitesarethebesttools,notthe82ndAirborne.TheUnitedStatescan
expandresourcesforlearningaboutdemocracy.
Directfinancialassistancetodemocratsisproblematic:Acheckfroman
Americanembassycantaintitsrecipients.Americasnextpresidentshould
privatizesuchaidandhelpseednewindependentfoundations.Internetaccess
andthefreeflowofinformation,thelifebloodofindependentmediaandcivil
society,shouldbeuniversalrightswechampion.
Americashouldalsofocusitseconomicand
politicalassistanceonnewdemocracieslike
SignUpfortheOpinion MyanmarandTunisia,whicharemost
TodayNewsletter fragileintheirfirstyearsoftransition.The
stakesareespeciallyhighinUkrainethere
Everyweekday,getthought-provoking wouldbenogreatergifttoMr.Putinthanto
commentaryfromOp-Edcolumnists,TheTimes letKievsexperimentindemocracyperish.
editorialboardandcontributingwritersfrom
aroundtheworld. Theworldstilllookstoitsoldestdemocracy,
theUnitedStates,tolead.Ifnotus,who?
SIGN UP
Senttime: 08/01/201612:30:41AM
To: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Subject: Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?
government.
Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?
138
States.
Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,andPresident
VladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobalmovement.
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineeforpresident,
DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrongleader,Mr.
TrumpsaidinDecember.
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.SaudiArabia
intervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,while
privateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.
SIGN UP
From: PaulGoble<paul.goble@gmail.com>
Senttime: 08/01/201606:20:17AM
To: PaulGoble<Paul.Goble@gmail.com>
BCc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FourWindowsonEurasiaforAugust1,2016
1.UkrainiansDenounceTrumpsReadinesstoLegitimizePutinsCrimeanAnschluss
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/08/ukrainians-denounce-trumps-readiness-to.html
2.OneRussianinFourWantstoEmigrate,ForcingMoscowtoAskIfItCanAttractAnyoneBack
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/08/one-russian-in-four-wants-to-emigrate.html
3.RisingUnemploymentPuttingRussiansontheMoveinSearchforWorkwindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/08/rising-
unemployment-putting-russians-on.html
4.ForRussiasGoldenYouth,RussiaEastoftheUralsPlayingRoleofCaucasusin19thCentury
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/08/for-russias-golden-youth-russia-east-of.html
Senttime: 08/01/201612:30:41AM
To: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Subject: Youhaveanyrecollectionoftheleakhedescribeswhenhewasambassador?Wherewasitpublished?
government.
Wouldyoumindtweetingthequestion?
138
States.
Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,andPresident
VladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobalmovement.
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineeforpresident,
DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrongleader,Mr.
TrumpsaidinDecember.
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.SaudiArabia
intervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,while
privateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.
SIGN UP
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 08/01/201608:50:52AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"DonaldTRUMPgivesquestionableexplanationofeventsinUKRAINE,"nytimes.com,8/1
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,August01,20168:50AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"DonaldTRUMPgivesquestionableexplanationofeventsinUKRAINE,"nytimes.com,8/1
InaninterviewwithGeorgeStephanopoulosontheABCNewsprogramThisWeek,Mr.Trumpsaid
thatifhewerepresident,PresidentVladimirPutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.
HethenbackpedaledwhenMr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefor
nearlytwoyears.
And:S.V.Dale,TrumpPUSHEDforGOPtochangeUkraineposition,nowclaimshedidnt:Thepro
RussiachangewastheonlyplatformtweaktheTrumpcampcaredabout,sourcessay,
huggingtonpost.com,7/31
And:Detailed8pageportraitofTRUMPscampaignmanager:HowPaulMANAFORTwieldedpower
inUkrainebeforeadvisingDonaldTrump,nytimes.com,7/31
And:AnintensivelookatManafortscampaignteam,someofthemformeraides[e.g.Frank
MERMOUD]inthecampaigntopropupViktorYANUKOVYCH:DonaldTrumpandRussia:awebthat
growsmoretangledallthetime,theguardian.com,7/30
And:[Hillary]CLINTON:RussianIntelhackedtheDNC,thedailybeast.com,7/31
And:MichaelWEISS,JulianASSANGE,DonaldTrump,andVladimirPUTIN:ATroikaforourinsane
era,thedailybest.com,8/111pagearticle
Inabizarremindmeldthatcouldonlyhappentoday,theWikiLeaksfounderisrefusingtosay
whetherhegotthehackedDNCemailsfromRussia,andTrumpisdefendingRussia.
And:GorgeF.WILL,HowentangledwithRussiaisTrump,washingtonpost.com,7/29oped
And:InvestigativepieceonwhythemoderateMikhailZURABOVwasreplacedbyhardlinerMikhail
BABICHasRussiasambassadortoUKRAINE:
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/07/29_a_9719417.shtml
And:RussiaseconomystillFALLINGafterhittingrockbottomReport[byMoscowsHigherSchool
ofEconomics],themoscowtimes.com,8/1
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/30/201609:37:23AM
To: RobertOtto<ottorc@state.gov>
Subject: WhatTrumpDoesntKnowAboutAllies-TheNewYorkTimes
WhatTrumpDoesntKnowAboutAllies
WASHINGTONDonaldJ.TrumphasstirredoutrageandincredulitywithastringofrecentcommentsaboutRussia
fromcyberhackingtosanctions.Yetnothinghehassaidhasmorepracticalsignificancethanthesuggestionthat,should
hewinelectioninNovember,AmericanallieswouldlosetheprotectionoftheUnitedStatesunlesstheypaymorefor
theirdefense.Hiswarningisareminderofhoweasilypresidentscanblundertheirwayintobigtrouble.
Mr.TrumpisrightthatEuropeanmilitarybudgetsaretoolow.AvastmajorityofNATOmembersarenotclosetothe
targetof2percentofgrossdomesticproductformilitaryspendingthatthealliancereaffirmedatitssummitmeetingin
Warsawthismonth.PresidentObamahimselfhascalledtheUnitedStatesalliesfreeriders.
NoristheRepublicanpresidentialcandidatecompletelywrongthatNATOmembershavealittlewiggleroomincoming
tooneanothersdefense.Thetinybitofchoicetheyhavehassometimesworriedalliedgovernments.
Allthesame,Mr.TrumpclearlyknowsnothingaboutthealliesthathespecificallysaidtheUnitedStatesmightnotdefend.
TogetherwithPoland,thethreesmallBalticStatesLatvia,LithuaniaandEstoniahavebeenamongNATOsstar
performers.Between2010and2015,theyincreasedtheirmilitaryspendingby45percent.
Continuereadingthemainstory
Whilecomplainingabouttheircost,Mr.TrumpalsoseemsunawareofhowsignificantlytheUnitedStateshascutbackits
ownforcesinEurope.Americantroopstrengthhasdropped75percentsincetheColdWar.
Withthislossofusablemilitarymuscle,friendsandenemiesalikeknowthatNATOmighthavetroublefulfillingsomeofits
pledges.Thatswhythebig-spendingUnitedStateshasjoineditssmall-spendingalliesinresolvingtodomore.American
battletanks,thelastofwhichleftEuropein2013,havestartedreturning,andtheObamaadministrationwantstoadd
$2.6billionforNATOcombatreadinesstonextyearsdefensebudget.
DonaldJ.TrumpatacampaignstoponWednesdayinScranton,Pa.ToddHeisler/TheNewYorkTimes
SomeofthesegapsinMr.Trumpsknowledgecouldsurelybeclosedbyagoodbriefingmemo.Butnomemocanhelp
someonewhocompletelymisunderstandstheforeign-policychallengesthatpresidentsface.Toreachcertainbusiness
goalsbuildinganewcasino,sayitmaybeenoughtohaveameetingofmindswithanotherC.E.O.Aclearcontract,
dinneranddrinks,afirmhandshake.Mr.Trumpsexperienceseemstohavetaughthimthatleadershipislargelyatop-
downaffair,amatterofclosingdeals,barkingoutorderstosubordinates,andbuddyinguptootherhighrollers.
Yetmanyofthehardestinternationalproblemspresidentsdealwithrisefromthebottomup.Thedangersofconfrontation
betweenRussiaandtheBalticStatesareagoodexample.SomeofMr.Trumpscriticsarguethatbysayinghemightnot
defendNATOalliesheisencouragingRussiatoinvadeorpressurethem.Mr.Trumpprobablyimaginesthathecan
addressthisriskoverdrinkswithRussiaspresident,VladimirV.Putin,andperhapshecan.(AsheboastedtotwoTimes
reporterslastweek,IthinkPutinandIwillgetalongverywell.)ButwithRussiahavingnearlydoubleditsdefense
budgetinthepastdecade,thedealmightnotbesoeasytoclose.Inanyevent,onlythetop-downversionoftheproblem
canbesolvedthisway.Andthebottom-upversiontheregionalanddomesticinstabilitysetinmotionbyabrupt
Americanpolicychangeswouldbemuchhardertohandle.
ConsiderthecaseofLatvia.SincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion,ithasmanagedanuneasybalancebetweenitsethnic
LatvianmajorityandalargeRussianminority.EthnicRussianleadershavepursuedpoliticalaccommodationand
supportedthecountrysWesternorientation.Ignoringthissuccess,Mr.Trumpwouldgivepro-Russianhotheadsan
openinganincentivetochallengetheirmoderaterivals,toattractRussianaidandmediaattention,andtothreaten
nationalunity.Lastyear,afteranAmericanmilitaryunitarrivedinLatviaforaNATOexercise,themayorofthecapital,
RigawhoheadstheethnicRussianpartytoldmehewasgladtowelcomethegroupwithavisitaboardthe
Americansship.IfLatviasplaceinNATObecameadivisiveissue,wouldthemayormakesuchagestureagain?
ThoseseekingtodividethecountryarenottheonlyoneswhomightactdifferentlyifMr.Trumpwerepresident.Ihave
heardLatviansecurityofficialssaythatMr.PutinsovernightseizureofCrimeain2014alteredtheirthinkingabouthowto
keepRussiaslittlegreenmenfromdoingthesamethinginLatvia.Theseofficialsnowthinktheymustbereadytosnuff
outthreatsbeforetheymaterialize.WorrythatWashingtonmightnotbewiththeminacrisismightwellencourageharsher
crackdowns.Hair-triggerpolicyisrarelysmartpolitics,butthatswhereMr.Trumpsideaslead.
BytellingLatviansnottocountontheUnitedStates,heencouragesparticipantsinanincreasinglystableandlegitimate
politicalsystemtotryconfrontationratherthancompromise.ThispatternishardlyconfinedtotheBalticStates.InCentral
EuropeandtheBalkans,doubtsaboutAmericancommitmentcouldfosterconflict.Tensionsmightbuildslowly,butbythe
timeaproblemcametothepresidentsdeskinWashington,itwouldbemoredangerousthanitistoday.APresident
Trumpmightblamevulnerableallies.Therealresponsibilitywouldbehis.
AmericanpolicyinCentralandEasternEuropesincetheColdWarendedhashelpedtocreatestability,prosperity,
moderatepoliticsandethnicaccommodationincountriesthathaverarelyknownthem.Theseareremarkable
achievements.Itwouldbecrazytoputthematrisk.
Correction:July29,2016
Becauseofaneditingerror,anearlierversionofthisarticlegaveanincorrectmiddleinitialforthepresidentof
Russia.HeisVladimirV.Putin,notVladimirL.Putin.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 07/31/201609:36:53AM
To: Paul<pmstronski@gmail.com>
HowtoCounterthePutinPlaybook-TheNewYorkTimesIhavenorecollectionoftheincidentwiththebusinessmen.Doyou?(there'snolink
Subject:
either)
138
States.
Everywhere,autocratsarepushingbackagainstdemocrats,and
PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiaisthedefactoleaderofthisglobal
movement.
primeminister,ViktorOrban.TheRepublicanPartynomineefor
president,DonaldJ.Trump,hasfrequentlypraisedMr.Putin.Hesastrong
leader,Mr.TrumpsaidinDecember.
repressionsassupposedprotectionfromIslamistextremists.Saudi
ArabiaintervenedinBahraintocrushademocraticmovementtherein2011,
whileprivateArabfoundationscontinuetopromoteilliberalideasthroughoutthe
regionandbeyond.
SIGN UP
Senttime: 07/31/201610:12:47AM
FW:[SATURDAY'VERYLATE'EVENINGPOST][IDIL/I-MARG/A]Fwd:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswenttoCrimeatodayto
Subject: improvemutualrelations.[PB]KremlinClaimsItWasHacked[Wouldyabelieveit?].[CHERM]ArmenianTroubles..[ANT/F]
Michael...
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,July30,20169:20PM
Subject:Fwd:[SATURDAY'VERYLATE'EVENINGPOST][IDIL/I-MARG/A]Fwd:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswenttoCrimea
todaytoimprovemutualrelations.[PB]KremlinClaimsItWasHacked[Wouldyabelieveit?].[CHERM]ArmenianTroubles..
[ANT/F]Michael...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Jul31,2016at12:19AM
Subject:[SATURDAY'VERYLATE'EVENINGPOST][IDIL/I-MARG/A]Fwd:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswent
toCrimeatodaytoimprovemutualrelations.[PB]KremlinClaimsItWasHacked[Wouldyabelieveit?].[CHERM]
ArmenianTroubles..[ANT/F]MichaelMooreExpressesFondnessForDonaldTrump+Putin'sDayOfTheLongKnives
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:IdilP.Izmirli<idil.izmirli@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at6:47PM
Subject:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswenttoCrimeatodaytoimprovemutualrelations
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FYI:
TheyarefromSarkozy'spartyandtheywereinvitedfortheBlackSeaFleetcelebrationsinSevastopol,butstillIthinkthatsome
Europeancountriesaretiredofthosesanctions.Thisworriesme.IthinkifTrumpiselected,itwouldbeevenworseforCrimea.
IknowyoucanreadRussian.Sothereyougo.
http://gordonua.com/news/crimea/francuzskie-parlamentarii-planiruyut-posetit-okkupirovannyy-krym-v-den-vmf-rossii-
142125.html
--
IdilP.Izmirli,Ph.D.
VisitingScholar&
AdjunctFaculty
GeorgeMasonUniversity
SchoolforConflictAnalysisandResolution
3351FairfaxDriveMSN4D3,ArlingtonVA22201
Home:703-354-8051
Work:703-993-1300
iizmirl1@gmu.edu
Idil.izmirli@gmail.com
From:MargaritaAssenova<assenova@jamestown.org>
Subject:Re:TenFrenchDeputiesandtwosenatorswenttoCrimeatodaytoimprovemutualrelations
To:"IdilP.Izmirli"<idil.izmirli@gmail.com>
Cc:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
HiIdil,
Youareright,thisiswhatPutinrelieson-todragtheconflictforaslongaspossible,sothattheEuropeansgettiredofit.Thenhe
will"freeze"itandconsolidatehisgains.ButtheconflictwillremainbleedingwhiletalkaboutCrimeamaystopinmanyplaces.
PotentialelectionofTrumpaspresidentwillmakePutin'splanseasier,becausehewillplayTrumpperfectly.Putinknowshowto
useothers'weaknesses.Thereisanotherevenbiggerdanger,iftheWestallowsPutintoachievehisinitialgoalsmentionedabove-
hecouldsubsequentlyundertakeafull-scaleoffensiveagainstUkrainetouniteDonbaswithterritoriesallthewaytoTransnistria.
ThisshouldnotbeexcludedaspotentialactionbytheKremlin.
CheckoutourlatestbookwithJanusz,thereisalotonRussia'sstrategyofsubversioninitsflanks:jamestown.orgorafree
downloadhere:http://jamestown.org/uploads/tx_jamquickstore/Eurasian_Disunion2.pdf
Allthebest,
Margarita
---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:Russiacyberattack:Largehack'hitsgovernment'-BBCNews[ED:OhthepoorKremlin!!Canyou
believeit?Jeez.whatistheworldcomingto!!??]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
Don'tbelieveit!PutinisthrowingupasmokescreentodeflectandcorruptnewsreportsofRussia'sspying."Geewhizfolks,
we'reallbeingattacked!ItmustbelittlemenfromMars.ThesameoneswhoforcedallthoseRussianathletestotakeallthat
dope!"
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36933239

A"professional"cyberattackhashitRussiangovernmentbodies,thecountry'sintelligenceservice
says.
A"cyber-spyingvirus"wasfoundinthenetworksofabout20organisations,theFederalSecurityService(FSB)
said.
ThereportcomesasRussiastandsaccusedoverdatabreachesinvolvingtheDemocraticPartyintheUS.
TheRussiangovernmenthasdeniedinvolvementandhasdenouncedthe"poisonousanti-Russian"rhetoric
comingoutofWashington.
TheFSBdidnotsaywhoitbelievedwasresponsibleforhackingRussiannetworks,butsaidthelatesthack
resembled"much-spoken-about"cyber-spying,withoutelaborating.
From:BardUkrainka<seanachie_holodonika@icloud.com>
Subject:BBCNews:Armeniapoliceofficerkilledamidhostagecrisis[ED:AnotherpartofZB'sold'arcof
crisis'resurrected?]
IsawthisontheBBCNewsAppandthoughtyoushouldseeit:
Armeniapoliceofficerkilledamidhostagecrisis
ApoliceofficerisshotdeadintheArmeniancapital,Yerevan,duringastand-offwithanarmedgroupbarricaded
insideapolicestation.
Disclaimer:TheBBCisnotresponsibleforthecontentofthisemail,andanythingwritteninthisemaildoesnotnecessarily
reflecttheBBC'sviewsoropinions.Pleasenotethatneithertheemailaddressnornameofthesenderhavebeenverified.
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Sat,Jul30,2016at11:54AM
Subject:Putin'sDayOfTheLongKnives/5ReasonsWhyTrumpWillWin
To:
Putin'sDayOfTheLongKnives
http://www.rferl.org/content/daily-vertical-transcript-putins-day-of-long-knives/27887962.html
...whenallthedusthadclearedyesterday,fourregionalgovernors,fourfederaldistrictheads,adisgracedcustoms
chief,andRussia'sambassadortoUkrainehadbeenreplacedinamassivereshuffling.
Andthebigwinner?Well,thatwouldbethesecurityservicesandinparticulartheFSB.
"Siloviki"veteranswalkedawaywithmostofthekeyposts...
A/F<SEEBELOW>:byleft-wingsocialistMichaelMoore(inHuffingtonPost):
5ReasonsWhyTrumpWillWin/M.Moore
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-moore/5-reasons-why-trump-will-_b_11156794.html?
utm_hp_ref=world&ir=World
...
1.MidwestMath,orWelcometoOurRustBeltBrexit.
IbelieveTrumpisgoingtofocusmuchofhisattentiononthefourbluestatesintherustbeltoftheupperGreatLakes
-Michigan,Ohio,PennsylvaniaandWisconsin.FourtraditionallyDemocraticstates-buteachofthemhaveelecteda
Republicangovernorsince2010(onlyPennsylvaniahasnowfinallyelectedaDemocrat).IntheMichiganprimaryin
March,moreMichiganderscameouttovotefortheRepublicans(1.32million)thattheDemocrats(1.19million).
TrumpisaheadofHillaryinthelatestpollsinPennsylvaniaandtiedwithherinOhio.Tied?Howcantheracebethis
closeaftereverythingTrumphassaidanddone?Wellmaybeitsbecausehessaid(correctly)thattheClintons
supportofNAFTAhelpedtodestroytheindustrialstatesoftheUpperMidwest.TrumpisgoingtohammerClintonon
thisandhersupportofTPPandothertradepoliciesthathaveroyallyscrewedthepeopleofthesefourstates.
WhenTrumpstoodintheshadowofaFordMotorfactoryduringtheMichiganprimary,hethreatenedthecorporation
thatiftheydidindeedgoaheadwiththeirplannedclosureofthatfactoryandmoveittoMexico,hewouldslapa35%
tariffonanyMexican-builtcarsshippedbacktotheUnitedStates.Itwassweet,sweetmusictotheearsofthe
workingclassofMichigan,andwhenhetossedinhisthreattoApplethathewouldforcethemtostopmakingtheir
iPhonesinChinaandbuildthemhereinAmerica,well,heartsswoonedandTrumpwalkedawaywithabigvictorythat
shouldhavegonetothegovernornext-door,JohnKasich.
FromGreenBaytoPittsburgh,this,myfriends,isthemiddleofEngland-broken,depressed,struggling,the
smokestacksstrewnacrossthecountrysidewiththecarcassofwhatweusetocalltheMiddleClass.
Angry,embitteredworking(andnonworking)peoplewhowereliedtobythetrickle-downofReaganandabandonedby
Democratswhostilltrytotalkagoodlinebutarereallyjustlookingforwardtoruboneoutwithalobbyistfrom
GoldmanSachswhollwritethemnicebigcheckbeforeleavingtheroom.
WhathappenedintheUKwithBrexitisgoingtohappenhere.ElmerGantryshowsuplookinglikeBorisJohnsonand
justsayswhatevershithecanmakeuptoconvincethemassesthatthisistheirchance!TosticktoALLofthem,all
whowreckedtheirAmericanDream!AndnowTheOutsider,DonaldTrump,hasarrivedtocleanhouse!Youdont
havetoagreewithhim!Youdontevenhavetolikehim!HeisyourpersonalMolotovcocktailtothrowrightintothe
centerofthebastardswhodidthistoyou!
SENDAMESSAGE!TRUMPISYOURMESSENGER!
...
JuliaDavis
#RussiaisthebiggestsourceofISISfightersinEurope,but@RussianEmbassybaselesslyaccuses
Ukraine#RussiaLies
Senttime: 07/31/201610:10:18AM
FW:[HOMEWORKINLATEJULY..AREUNUTS?JEEZ.MAYBETIMEFORIT...IFYOUDON'TWANTTHE'GUNSOF
Subject: AUGUST'!!][WD]R.ColvileQuestion:"IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfracturedage?"..LookingfortheanswerinA.
Dugin'swork...
Subject:Fwd:[HOMEWORKINLATEJULY..AREUNUTS?JEEZ.MAYBETIMEFORIT...IFYOUDON'TWANTTHE'GUNSOFAUGUST'!!]
[WD]R.ColvileQuestion:"IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfracturedage?"..LookingfortheanswerinA.Dugin's
work...
Subject:[HOMEWORKINLATEJULY..AREUNUTS?JEEZ.MAYBETIMEFORIT...IFYOUDON'TWANTTHE
'GUNSOFAUGUST'!!][WD]R.ColvileQuestion:"IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfractured
age?"..LookingfortheanswerinA.Dugin'sworkandtwoearlymasterfulcommentariesonDugin'swork:JohnD(2004)Ilan
B(2005)
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Subject:IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfracturedage?
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca
IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosin
ourfracturedage?
Putinhasengagedinanextraordinarycampaignofpromotingandsponsoringpoliticalparties
acrossEurope.
ByRobertColvile
July26,201617:27BST
360
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.PresidentBarackObamaattheUnitedNationsheadquarters,
September28,2015,NewYorkGettyImages
ThehackingandleakingofembarrassingemailsfromwithintheDemocraticNationalCommittee(DNC)has
beenblamed,prettyconvincingly,onRussia.Ifso,thisshouldbeashockingmoment:anakedattemptbyVladimir
Putin'sregimetointerferewiththeelectoralprocessinanothercountry.
Itshouldbeshocking.Butitverymuchisn't.Notjustbecause,intheageofDonaldTrump,we'veallhadtodeal
witharelentlesserosionofourcapacityforoutrage.ButbecausePutin'sRussiathecountrythatshutdownahost
offoreign-fundedNGOsonthepretextthattheywereattemptingtomeddleinitsdomesticpoliticshasbeen
engagedinalong-standing,remarkablysuccessfulandcompletelyunsubtleattempttodoexactlythesamething.
MorefromIBTimes
StephenKing:HowmanyhavetodiebeforeAmericawillgiveupthesedeadlytoys?
AfterFarage,Ukipneedsamakeovertobecomecredibleandsheditstoxicimage
Grammarschoolsarebackontheagendaandthat'sbadnewsforpoorerkids
Whyadvertisewithus
We'reallfamiliarwithitstrackrecordinitsownbackyard:theinvasionofGeorgia,theinstigationofacivilwarin
Ukraineandsubsequentillegalannexationofachunkofitsterritory.
ButPutin'stentaclesstretchfarmorewidely.Therearethemostvisiblesigns,ofcourse:themegaphonesofRussia
Today(theTVnewschannel)andSputnikNews(the"alternativenews"website).Thesepumpoutarelentlessstream
ofstoriesdesignedtomaketheWestlookbadandRussialookgood,aswellasofferingheftyappearancefeesto
sympatheticfigures:GeorgeGalloway,forexample,trousered1,600aweekfortwohours'presentingwork.
Butbeyondsuchvisibleefforts,Putinhasengagedinanextraordinarycampaignofpromotingandsponsoring
politicalpartiesacrossEurope.Earlierthisyear,theTelegraphreportedthatUSintelligenceisinvestigating
Russia'spoliticalactivitiesinFrance,theNetherlands,Hungary,AustriaandtheCzechRepublic.TheKremlinhas
builttieswithGoldenDawninGreece,loanedmillionstoMarineLePen'sFrontNationalviaRussianbanks,and
agreedenergydealsfromwhich,accordingtothethenAmericanambassadorinRome,SilvioBerlusconibenefited
"personallyandhandsomely".
Allthis,saysEdLucas,aseniorEconomisteditorandauthorofTheNewColdWar,ispartof"along-running
RussianattempttomanipulatebothinformationandopinionintheWest".UnlikeitsSovietpredecessor,Russia
doesn'twanttodestroytheWest,saysLucas:"WhattheywantisfortheWesttobemalleableandforthatto
happentheeliteshavetobediscreditedintheeyesofthevoters,andthecollectivesecurityarrangementsthatwe
havemustbeweakenedandbroken.That'sbecause,ifRussia'sdealingwithacountrybilaterally,it'salwaysinavery
strongposition140millionpeople,$1.4trnGDP,nuclearweapons,andsoon.Butit'snotatanadvantageifit's
dealingwiththeEU,ortheWest.Sotheywanttoplaydivideandrule."
AsUSVicePresidentJoeBidenwarnedlastyear,"PresidentPutinseessuchpoliticalforcesasusefultoolstobe
manipulated,tocreatecracksintheEuropeanbodypoliticwhichhecanthenexploit."Theremarkablething,
however,istheconstellationofallies,oratleastsympathisers,Putinhasacquiredintheprocess.
InBritain,forexample,youhaveSeumasMilne,JeremyCorbyn'shard-leftconsigliereand(inhispreviouslifeasa
Guardiancolumnist)theloudestpro-RussianvoiceonFleetStreet.Butyoualsohaveright-wingfigureslikeNigel
FarageandMailcolumnistPeterHitchens:theywouldconsiderMilneaTrotandatraitor,butstilladmirePutin's
ruthlessstreak.EvenNickGriffin,formerheadoftheBNP,poppedupinMoscowlastyearataconferenceof
fringeracistmovementstoproclaimPutinthesaviourofChristendomagainsttheinfidelhordes.
"Youseethisleft-rightallianceallovertheplace,"saysLucas."InFranceyou'vegottheFrontNationalandyou've
gottheCommunists.InItalyyou'vegottheLeft,becausethey'reanti-American,andtheRight,whosaytheywish
theirleaderslovedtheircountrythewayPutinloveshis.InGermany,you'vegotDieLinke,theoldCommunistsand
WestGermanLefties,andAlternativfurDeutschland,whoarethenewright-wingparty.
"Butwhat'sreallystrikingtomeisthatyoualsohavewhatIcallthegreedymiddlebusinessmen,orpeople
likePeterMandelson,orthebigGermancompanies.Thesegroupsallhateeachother,buttheyallbelieveweneed
toresetrelationswithRussia."
Asfarasusefulidiotsgo,however,byfarthemostusefulisDonaldTrump.Trumphasalongandignoblehistoryof
sayingverynicethingsaboutthisverynastyman."Intermsofleadership,he'sgettinganA,"heoncesaid.Whenit
wasputtohimthatPutinhadjournalistsandpoliticalopponentskilledandinvadedhisneighbours,hereplied:"At
leasthe'saleader."
AmuralonarestaurantwalldepictingDonaldTrumpandVladimirPutingreetingeachotherwithakissinthe
LithuaniancapitalVilniusonMay13,2016.GettyImages
ButtheTrump-Putintiesgodeeperthanmererhetoric.AsaprofileinSlatepointsout,Trump'sbusinessesdepend
heavilyonRussianinvestors.Hislistofforeignpolicyadvisersisessentiallyalistofkooksandgadfliesunited
solelybytheirsympathyfortheKremlin.Andhisnewcampaignmanager,PaulManafort,spentnearlysevenyears
workingonbehalfofVictorYanukovych,Putin'sstoogeintheUkraine,aswellasothershadypro-Kremlin
billionairesfromtheregion.EvenbeforeTrumpsentshiversdowneasternEuropeanspinesbyrepudiatingNato's
principleofcollectivedefence,hiscampaignhadaftershowingnointerestwhatsoeverintheminutiaeofitsown
policyplatformintervenedspecificallytowaterdownRepublicansupportofUkraine.
ThefascinatingquestionhereiswhetherallofthisthefactthattheWestismanifestlyalessstable,secureand
unitedplacethanithasbeenforyearsisdowntoluckorjudgement.Inotherwords,towhatextentisPutin
merelyprofitingfromthechaosofourfracturedage,andtowhatextenthasheactivelystokedit?
Ifyouwereofaconspiratorialcastofmind,youcouldcertainlybuildupatrailofbreadcrumbs.TakeBrexit,for
example.InadditiontoNigelFarage'sownadmirationforBigVlad,therewastheLeave.EUmovementfoundedby
insurancetycoonArronBanks.Banks'swifeisRussian,andhasindeedbeenaccusedofbeingaspy,thoughwithout
muchevidence.(Toshowherwhathethinksoftheidea,heboughtherthelicenceplate"XMI5SPY"asaChristmas
present.)ButMrsBanksdidgethelpstayinginthecountryfromMikeHancock,thedisgracedLibDemMPwho
hadafour-yearaffairwithasuspectedRussianspy,andbowedonlytoSeumasMilneinhisadmirationforPutin.
AndthentherewasthefactthatMilneandCorbyn,despitetheoreticallybeingontheRemainside,seemed
determinedtosabotagetheirowncampaign...
HavinginterviewedBanks,itseemedprettyclearhisinterventioninthereferendumwasentirelyoutofpersonal
conviction.LikewiseCorbyn'slong-standingantipathytotheEU,whichheseesasaneo-liberaltoolforattacking
workers'rights.ButI'vestillheardwhispersinWestminsterthatPutinmight'must!'haveplayedsomekindof
roleintheBrexitcampaign,notleastbecauseofhowperfectlyitsuitedhispurposes,andhowdelightedheandhis
cronieswereabouttheresult.TheproblemisthatwhenitcomestotheKremlin'sactivities,thereare,asLucasputs
it,onlyafew"outcropsofclearfact"surroundedbymuchguessingandspeculation.
Intheend,theideaofPutinaspuppetmastercanbealmostacomfort.ItreassuresusthattheWest'stroublesits
economicvicissitudes,itspoliticalpolarisationarenotourownfault,butarevisiteduponusbyaruthless,
fiendishenemy.Thetruthis,wegotourselvesintothis.**WhatPutinisdoing,bystokingextremismanddivision,
isensuringthatit'sthatmuchhardertogetout.
RobertColvileisawriterandcommentatoronpoliticsandtechnology,andtheauthorof'TheGreat
Acceleration:HowtheWorldisGettingFaster,Faster'(Bloomsbury)
[**EDPOSTSCRIPT:AftertakingabitofaganderatDugin'sramblingbutperversely
illuminating"FoundationsofGeopolitics",yourtrulyhonestlybelievesthattheleft-right
wing-nutcoalitionweareseeingeverywherethesedayshadlittletodowiththeWest's
(oftenegregious)mistakesandeverythingtodowithawellplanned&lengthyRUIntel
DEZINFORMoperationDugin'smacabre"optimalwitch'smixofcollectivehatredsbased
onclass,race/nationandreligion(i.e.--leninism+fascism+jihadism)"---meantto
challenge,ifproperlyfused,theJudeo-Christiandemocratic(smalld)constructuponwhich
theWestisbased---hasbeeninplaysincethemid1990s.][Pleaseturnyourattentiontothe
itemsthatfollow]
FIRSTNOTE:
DUGIN'SWEBSITE:http://arctogaia.com/public/eng/
FOUNDATION:http://www.eurasianistarchive.com/category/book-projects/foundations-of-
geopolitics/
THENNOTEBELOWTWOMASTERFULSTUDIESOF/COMMENTARIESONOL'SASHA
DUGIN.FROMOUROWNCIRCLE:
Stanford'sJohnD(2004)&AFPC'sIlanB(2005)
AleksandrDugin'sFoundationsofGeopoliticsDunlop,JohnB.
Demokratizatsiya12.1(Jan31,2004):41.
JohnB.DunlopisaseniorfellowattheHooverInstitution.Hiscurrentresearchfocusesonthe
conflictinChechnya,Russianpoliticssince1985,Russiaandthesuccessorstatesoftheformer
SovietUnion,Russiannationalism,andthepoliticsofreligioninRussia.
OneperceptiveobserveroftheRussianpoliticalscene,FrancoiseThom,notedasfarbackas1994
thatfascism,andespeciallyits"Eurasianist"variant,wasdisplacingRussiannationalismamong
statistRussianelitesasapost-communist"RussianIdea,"especiallyintheforeignpolicysphere.
"TheweaknessofRussiannationalists,"sheemphasized,"stemsfromtheirinabilitytoclearly
situateRussianfrontiers.Euras[ianism]bringsanideologicalfoundationforpost-Soviet
imperialism."1
ThereprobablyhasnotbeenanotherbookpublishedinRussiaduringthepost-communistperiod
thathasexertedaninfluenceonRussianmilitary,police,andstatistforeignpolicyelites
comparabletothatofAleksandrDugin's1997neo-fascisttreatise,FoundationsofGeopolitics.
2Theimpactofthisintended"Eurasianist"textbookonkeyelementsamongRussianelites
testifiestotheworrisomeriseoffascistideasandsentimentsduringthelateYeltsinandPutin
periods.
Theauthorofthissix-hundred-pageprogramfortheeventualruleofethnicRussiansoverthe
landsextending"fromDublintoVladisvostok,"AleksandrGel'evichDugin,wasbornin1962,the
son,grandson,andgreat-grandsonofRussianmilitaryofficers.3Hisfatherissaidtohaveheld
therankofcolonel,and,accordingtoonesource,heservedinSovietmilitaryintelligence,inthe
GRU.4Byallaccounts,Duginwasabrightandprecociousyouthwithatalentforlearningforeign
languages.(Heissaidtohavemasteredatleastnineofthem.)Whilestillateenager,hejoineda
secretivegroupofMoscowintellectualsinterestedinmysticism,paganism,andfascism.Boththe
"masters"ofthisgroupandtheir"disciples"engaged,interalia,intranslatingtheworksofforeign
writerswhosharedtheirinterests.Asoneofhiscontributions,Dugincompletedatranslationofa
bookbytheItalianpagan-fascistphilosopherJuliusEvola.
DuginisreportedtohavebeendetainedbytheKGBforparticipatinginthisstudygroup,and
forbiddenliteraturewassubsequentlydiscoveredathisapartment.Accordingtooneaccount,he
thenwasexpelledfromtheMoscowAviationInstitute,wherehehadenrolledasastudentsome
timeinthelate1970s.Accordingtoanotheraccount,heeventuallymanagedtograduatefromthe
institute.5
In1987,duringGorbachev'ssecondyearofrule,Duginwasinhismid-twentiesandemergedasa
leaderofthenotoriousanti-SemiticRussiannationalistorganization,Pamyat',headedby
photographerDmitriiVasil'ev.Duringlate1988and1989,Duginservedasamemberofthe
Pamyat'CentralCouncil.
In1989,takingadvantageofincreasedopportunitiestovisittheWest,Duginspentmostofthe
yeartravelingtoWesternEuropeancountries.Whilethere,hestrengthenedtieswithleading
figuresoftheEuropeanNewRight,suchasFrenchmanAlaindeBenoistandBelgianJean-Francois
Thiriart.ThesecontactsledtoDugin's"belatedreconciliation"withtheUSSR,justasthatstatewas
approachingitsfinaldemise.Itappearsthat,largelyasaresultofthesecontactswiththe
EuropeanNouvelleDroite,Duginbecameafascisttheorist.OnthesubjectofDugin'sindubitable
fascistorientation,Stephen
Shenfieldhaswritten:"CrucialtoDugin'spoliticsistheclassicalconceptofthe'conservative
revolution'thatoverturnsthepost-Enlightenmentworldandinstallsaneworderinwhichthe
heroicvaluesofthealmostforgotten'Tradition'arerenewed.ItisthisconceptthatidentifiesDugin
unequivocallyasafascist."6
Bythebeginningofthe1990s,astheSovietUnionwasapproachingitscollapse,Duginbeganto
assumeamorehigh-profilepoliticalrole.Heformedanassociationwith"statistpatriots"inthe
communistcampandwas,forabriefperiod,closetotheGenadiiZyuganov,theleaderofthe
CommunistPartyoftheRussianFederation.AccordingtoStephenShenfield,Dugin"probably
playedasignificantpartinformulatingthenationalistcommunistideologythatwasZyuganov's
hallmark."7
In1991,theyearthatwitnessedtheendoftheUSSR,Duginmadetheacquaintanceofan
importantneo-fascistwriterwithtiestoelementsintheRussianmilitary,AleksandrProkhanov,
whosejournalDen'(subsequentlyrenamedZavtra),servedasakeysounding-boardforthe"red-
brownopposition."8Duginsoonemergedas"oneoftheleadingideologistsofDen'initsbest
period(1991-1992)."9
InJuly1992,Duginalsobegantoedithisownjournal,Elementy:evraziiskoeobozrenie,which
appearedtwiceyearly(lateronceayear)inaprintrunof5,000-10,000.Thejournal'stitlewas
borrowedfromthetheoreticaljournaloftheFrenchNewRight,Elements,editedbyAlainde
Benoist.ConcerningDugin'sjournal,AleksandrVerkhovskiiandVladimirPribylovskiihavenoted:
"InspeakingofElementy,oneshouldnotforgetthathalfofeachissueiscomprisedof
'geopoliticalnotebooks'containingarticlesabouttheglobaloppositionofvariouscivilizations,
primarilyRussiaandtheWest."10
Duringtheearly1990s,Duginfoundedhisownpublishinghouse,"Arktogeya."Thisnamewas
borrowedfromthepublishinghouseofGermanracistwriterGuidovonList(1848-1918).It
combinestheancientGreekwordsarktos(north)andgeaorgaia(land),areferencetothe
vanishedpolarcontinentthatwassupposedlytheoriginalhomeoftheAryans.11
In1991-1992,ProkhanovandDuginattemptedtoformanalliancebetweencertainleadersofthe
EuropeanNewRightandseveraldepartmentheadsandprofessorsattheAcademyoftheGeneral
StaffoftheRussianArmedForces.ThefirstissueofElementyin1992publishedthetranscriptof
anApril1992roundtable,heldonthepremisesoftheacademy,whichincludedLieutenantGeneral
NikolaiKlokotov,headoftheacademy'sstrategydepartmentLieutenantGeneralNikolaiPishchev,
deputyheadofthesamedepartmentMajorGeneralVladislavIminov,headoftheacademy's
departmentofmilitaryhistoryAlaindeBenoist,"theleaderoftheEuropeanNewRight"andJean
Lalou,anotherNewRightspokesman.12
ThecommanderoftheGeneralStaffAcademy,GeneralIgor'Rodionov,wasreportedtobe
"particularlywell-disposedtowardDugin,"andDugin'sideasevidentlycontinuedtoenjoyhis
supportoncehebecameRussianDefenseMinisterin1996-1997.13Itmaybesignificantthat
Dugin'sFoundationsofGeopoliticswaswrittenduringthetimethatRodionovwasservingas
defenseminister.14
TheGeneralStaffAcademyandGRU'sinterestingeopoliticsandEurasianismreachedbacksome
fortyyears."Beginninginthe1950s,"FrancoiseThornremarked,"SovietstrategistslikeGeneral
ShtemenkoandAdmiralGorshkovwereinspiredbyEurasianistthinking."15AsforDugin,he
singled
outMarshalNikolaiOgarkov,aSovietmilitarychiefofstaffintheearly1980s,as"anoutstanding
geopolitician,strategist,andEurasian."16
In1993,DuginjoinedhiseffortswiththoseofcharismaticdemagogueEduardLimonov(born
1943)andfoundedtheNationalBolshevikParty(NBP).AsVerk-hovskiiandPribylovskiihave
pointedout,"TheideologyoftheNationalBolshevikPartywasfullygeneratedbyoneman--
AleksandrDugin."17Limonovplayedtheroleofafascist-styleleader,andDuginservedassecond
incommandandtheparty'schieftheoretician.Theneworganizationappearstohavebeenmore
influencedbyGermanthanbyRussiannationalBolshevism.TheGermanNationalBolshevikErnst
Niekischhad"advocatedaGerman-RussianallianceagainsttheWest.IntheSovietUnion,
especiallyStalin'sSovietUnion,manyGermannationalists[likeNiekisch]sawthelogicalfulfillment
ofthewaragainst'Jewishcapitalism.'"18In1995,DuginranfortheRussianStateDumaona
NationalBolshevikplatformbutwasresoundinglyrejectedbyvoters,receivingamere0.85percent
ofthevote.19
In1997,DuginbrokewiththestormyLimonovandbegananoteworthypoliticalascent.Inthat
sameyear,hepublishedhisFoundationsofGeopolitics,oneofthemoreinfluentialworksofthe
post-communistperiod.ItappearstohavebeenwrittenwiththeassistanceofGeneralNikolai
KlokotovoftheGeneralStaffAcademy,whoservedasanofficialconsultanttotheproject.Colonel
GeneralLeonidIvashov,headoftheInternationalDepartmentoftheRussianMinistryofDefense,
alsomayhaveservedasanadviser.20Perhapsdueinparttosuchhigh-levelinput,"Dugin's
geopoliticalideas[asexpressedinFoundations]areclearlymuchmoreinfluentialthanarethe
othermoreopenlymysticalandesotericsidesofhisphilosophy."21
Duringthefollowingyear,Dugin'scareertookakeystepforwardwhenhewasnamedanadviser
ongeopoliticstoGennadiiSeleznev.Seleznevwaschairman(or"speaker")oftheRussianState
DumaandamajorplayerinRussianpolitics.(InJune2001,Seleznevwasrankedthetenthmost
influentialpoliticalfigureinRussiabyNezavisimayagazeta'spanelofexperts.22)Inthecourseof
aMarch1999radiointerview,SeleznevmadepublicthefactthatDuginwasservingasoneofhis
advisersand"heurgedthatDugin'sgeopoliticaldoctrinebemadeacompulsorypartoftheschool
curriculum."23Twoyearslater,atthefoundingcongressofthehew"Eurasia"movement,Dugin
boasted,"IamtheauthorofthebookFoundationofGeopolitics,whichhasbeenadoptedasa
textbookinmany[Russian]educationalinstitutions."Duringthesamecongress,the
aforementionedGeneralKlokotov--nowaprofessoremeritusbutonewhocontinuedtoteachat
theacademy--notedthatthetheoryofgeopoliticshadbeentaughtasasubjectattheGeneral
StaffAcademysincetheearly1990sandthatinthefutureitwould"serveasamightyideological
foundationforpreparinganew[military]command."24AtpresentDugin'sbookpresumablyis
beingusedasatextbookattheGeneralStaffAcademy.
In1999,Dugin'spublishinghousebroughtoutavolumeofwritingsbytheinterwaremigre
Eurasianwriter,PrinceNikolaiTrubetskoi.Inhisintroductiontothevolume,Duginwrotethat
Trubetskoi"canbetermedtheEurasianMarx."25ItseemedthatDuginsawasimilarexaltedrole
forhimselfastheformulatorofanew"RussianIdea"atthedawnofanewmillennium.
Sometimeinlate1999,Duginfounded"TheCenterforGeopoliticalExpertise"inMoscow.Inan
articleinZavtra,hespeculatedthatthisnewcentermightshortlybecome"ananalyticalinstrument
oftheEurasianPlatformfor,simultaneously,thePresidentialAdministration,theGovernmentofthe
RussianFederation,theCouncilofFederation,andtheStateDuma."26InlateMarchof2000,ina
secondZavtraarticle,DuginenvisionedanewrolefortheRussiansecretpolice(whichuntil
recentlyhadbeen
headedbythenewlyelectedRussianpresident,VladimirPutin).Whereasinhis1993book,
Konspiralogiya,Duginhadcriticizedthesecretpoliceforperceived"Atlanticist,"thatis,pro-
Americanandpro-Britishsympathies,henowtoastedtheKGB(theinitialshepreferredtoFSB)as
"anewcaste,anewsocialstratum"calleduponbothtoholdthelineagainst"American
hegemony"andto"recreateamightyEurasiansovereignstate"whichwouldincludealloftheCIS
republics.27
InAugust2000,afterreadinganarticleby"oneofthechiefideologistsofthe[Putin]Kremlin,"
GlebPavlovskii,DuginwrotePavlovskiisuggestingameeting.Pavlovskii,thecreatorofseveral
influentialpro-KremlinWebsites,agreed.Commentingonthisburgeoningrelationship,journalist
AndreiKolesnikovremarked:"Extremerightideologyisnotonlyturningintothedominantviewin
Russianpublicationsandstaterhetoric,itisalsobecomingfashionableinasalonsense."28
InNovember2000,shortlybeforeundertakingatriptoBrunei,PresidentPutindeclaredpublicly,
"RussiahasalwaysperceivedofitselfasaEurasiancountry."29Duginlatertermedthisstatement
"anepochal,grandioserevolutionaryadmission,which,ingeneral,changeseverything.The
prophecyof[Frenchconspiratologist]JeanParvulescohascometopass....Therewillbea
Eurasianmillennium."30
OnApril21,2001,Duginachievednewheightswiththefoundingcongressofthe"Pan-Russian
PoliticalSocialMovement'Eurasia.'"Holdingthiscongressunderscoredthecloserelationsthat
DuginhadformedwithpresentandespeciallyformermembersoftheRussianspecialservices.The
congresstookplaceinahallbelongingtothe"HonorandDignity"Club,agroupofveteransofthe
specialservicesandlawenforcementorganizations.Theheadoftheclub,VladimirRevskii,earlier
hadservedinVympel,aspecialoperationsunitattachedtotheFirstChiefDirectorateoftheKGB
(andlatertheSVR).Revskiiofficiallyopenedthecongressandlaterwaselectedtomembershipin
"Eurasia's"rulingbody,thePoliticalCouncil.
PetrSuslov,alsoaformerVympelmemberandaretiredcolonelintheSVRY,playedanevenmore
noteworthyroleatthecongress.Suslovservedasheadofthecommitteethatorganizedthe
congressandthenwaselecteddeputyleaderofthenewmovement(withDuginchosenasthe
leader).31DuringaJuly2001interview,SuslovconfidedthathewasagraduateoftheRyazan'
ParatroopSchoolwhohadthen"servedinthestructuresoftheKGB...inaunitwhichconducted
specialoperationsabroad."32Inthiscapacity,hesaid,hehadservedinAfghanistan,
Mozambique,Angola,Nicaragua,andVietnam.RetiringfromtheSVRin1995,hehadbecomea
consultantonissuesrelatingtotheCaucasusforDumaspeakerSeleznev,whichhadprovidedhim
withanopportunitytomeetDugin,whowasadvisingSeleznevongeopoliticalquestions.Thetwo
soonrealizedthattheyagreedonmanykeyissues.
WritingfortheGlebPavlovskii-sponsoredwebsite,SMI.ru,journalistGrigoriiOsterman
commented:"[Petr]SuslovhimselfenjoysbroadconnectionswithintheleadershipoftheFSB
(thereexistsinformationthatheisanexternalemployeeofthecentralapparatusoftheFSB),as
wellasinthePresidentialAdministration,bodiestowhichtheleaderof'Eurasia,'Dugin,alsohas
entree."33"Duginisalreadybeingperceived,"theweeklyObshchayagazetaobserved,"notasthe
preacherofanideologicalsectbutasanofficiallyrecognizedspecialistongeopoliticalquestions."
34
Inasimilarvein,theinvestigativeweeklyVersiyaobservedinlateMay2001:"Contactsbetween
Pavlovskiiand'Eurasia'actuallydooccur,butmostlikelyonthelevelofpersonalconsultations.
AleksandrDuginandtheheadofKremlinpolitico-technologyenjoygood,friendlyrelations."Under
VladimirPutin,thenewspapercontinued,Duginhadbecome"oneofthedraftersoftheconceptof
nationalsecurity."ItwasnotedthatDmitriiRyurikov,aleadingadvisertoPresidentYeltsinon
foreignaffairs,andcurrentlytheRussianambassadortoUzbekistan,hadagreedtobecomea
memberof"Eurasia's"CentralCouncil.Dugin'sneworganization,Versiyawenton,alsowas
engagedin"thepreparingofanalyticalreportsonforeignaffairsforthePresidential
Administration."Asforthefinancialsupportof"Eurasia,"thenewspaperwrote:"Thefinancial
supportofthemovementcomesthroughregionalorganizationsofthespecialservices.Andthis
support,accordingtooursources,isnotsmall.Moreover,notonlyfinancesareprovidedbutalso
'necessary'connections."35
Inhisaddresstothefoundingcongressof"Eurasia,"Duginexpressedhisgratitudeto"the
AdministrationofthePresidentoftheRussianFederation,"foritsassistance,beforealsothanking
theMoscowPatriarchate,theCentralSpiritualAdministrationfortheMuslimsofRussia,andother
organizations.36OnMay31,2001,theRussianMinistryofJusticeofficiallyregisteredthe
"Eurasia"movement,whichwasreportedtohavebranchesinfiftyregionsofRussia.37Inlate
June2001,"Eurasia"hostedanambitiousconference,provocativelytitled"IslamicThreatora
ThreattoIslam?"heldatthePresidentialHotelinMoscow.Thetitularco-chairmenofthe
conferencewereSeleznev(whodidnotattend)andSheikhTalgatTadzhuddin,theofficially
recognizedheadoftheMuslimsofRussiaandtheCISstates.38
Bysummer2001,AleksandrDugin,aneo-fascistideologue,hadmanagedtoapproachthecenter
ofpowerinMoscow,havingformedclosetieswithelementsinthepresidentialadministration,the
secretservices,theRussianmilitary,andtheleadershipofthestateDuma.Inaninterviewwiththe
KrasnoyarskdivisionofEkhoMoskvyRadioonJuly25,2001,Dugin,commentingonPutin'srole
attherecentG-8meetingsinGenoa,affirmed,"Itismyimpressionthatintheinternationalsphere
PutinissplendidlyrealizingtheEurasianpoliticalmodel."39FollowingtheSeptember11,2001
terroristincidentsinNewYorkCityandWashington,D.C.,Dugin'sopinionwassolicitedbyamajor
Russiannewspaper,alongwiththeviewsofthesecretaryoftheRussianSecurityCouncil,the
speakeroftheFederationCouncil,andvariousDumafactionleaders,whichtestifiestothe
perceivedinfluencethatDuginwieldsinpresent-dayRussia.40
SeveralRussianjournalistshaveunderscoredthatDugin-style"Eurasianism"meetsanumberof
politicalneedsinRussia.Abeliefintheprimacyoftherightsoftheindividualoverthoseofthe
state,journalistEvgeniiIkhlovwrote,wouldresultinthecontrolofcivilsocietyoverthestate.In
Russia,bycontrast,Ikhlovcontinued:
[O]urnewchiefstratumareincapableofrulingundersuchademocracy....[T]heystandinneedof
anattractivefoundationforanother,non-democraticmodel.HereEurasianismextraordinarilyfits
thebill.Itoffersthefollowing:anauthoritarian-charismatic(autocratic)modelselflessand
asceticalservingoftheregimeasthehighestformofvalor(themessianicgreatpowersyndrome)
theagreementofethnicandreligiousminoritiestoplayasubordinateroleandimperial
xenophobia.41
"WhatinducestheregimetoseekanewideologyinEurasianism?"journalistDmitriiRadyshevskii,
asked.Heanswered:"Here[inDugin-styleEurasianism]thereareideaswhichmeetthe
psychologicalneedsofsociety:thereisanalternativetothefailedloveaffairwiththeWestthere
isthe[Russian]traditionofmessianismandthereistheproximityofAsia....Theregimestandsin
needofanewideology,butofatraditionalone,'integralandgreat.'Allofthisishappilycombined
inEurasianism."42
TheGeopoliticsofDugin's1997Book
Dugin'smilitantviewsongeopolitics,asexpressedinhis1997"textbook,"presumablywillstrike
Westernreadersasbothcrudeandmad,representingaslightimprovementovertheravingsof
DumadeputyspeakerVladimirZhirinovskii.AlthoughDugin'sideasandprescriptionsareindeed
extreme,dangerous,andrepellent,itshouldbeemphasizedthattheyareverymuchinthe
traditionofthewritingsofinterwarfascistsandadherentsoftheEuropeanNouvelleDroite.
Historicallyspeaking,fascistthoughtmorethanoncehasresultedinexplosiveexpansionism.It
shouldbenotedthatDugindoesnotfocusprimarilyonmilitarymeansasawayofachieving
RussiandominanceoverEurasiarather,headvocatesafairlysophisticatedprogramofsubversion,
destabilization,anddisinformationspearheadedbytheRussianspecialservices,supportedbya
tough,hard-headeduseofRussia'sgas,oil,andnaturalresourcerichestopressureandbullyother
countriesintobendingtoRussia'swill.Duginapparentlydoesnotfearwarintheleast,buthe
wouldprefertoachievehisgeopoliticalgoalswithoutresortingtoit.
Drawingontheextensivetwentieth-centuryliteratureongeopolitics--andespeciallyontheinterwar
GermanschoolofKarlHaushofer--Duginpositsaprimordial,dualisticconflictbetween
"Atlanticism"(seafaringstatesandcivilizations,suchastheUnitedStatesandBritain)and
"Eurasianism"(land-basedstatesandcivilizations,suchasEurasia-Russia).43AsWayne
Allensworthnoted,onceonepenetratesbelowthesurfaceofDugin'sseeminglyrationaland
scholarlylanguageinFoundationsofGeopolitics,onerealizesthat"Dugin'sgeopoliticsaremystical
andoccultinnature,theshapeofworldcivilizationsandtheclashingvectorsofhistorical
developmentbeingportrayedasshapedbyunseenspiritualforcesbeyondman'scomprehension."
44InDugin'streatise,asAllensworthunderscores,theauthorhasappropriatedalmostwholesale
"theidea"ofBelgiangeopoliticianJeanThiriart,who"recognizedtheRussifiedSovietUnionasthe
finalbastionofcivilizationinaEuropeoverrunbyrootlessAmericanconsumerism."Thiriartearlier
hadadvocatedtheformationofanew"HolyAlliance"oftheUSSRandEuropeaimedat
constructinga"Euro-SovietEmpire,"whichwouldstretchfromVladivostoktoDublinandwould
alsoneedtoexpandtothesouth,"sinceitrequiredaportontheIndianOcean."45
TheGorbachevDebacle
TheGorbachevyears(1985-1991)represent,inDugin'seyes,oneofthemostwrenching
geopoliticaldefeatsinthemillennialhistoryofRussia-Eurasia-USSR.Beginningin1989,itbecame
clearthat"no-oneintheSovietleadershipwascapableofexplainingthelogicoftraditional
[Soviet]foreignpolicyand,asaresult,theretookplacethelightning-fastdestructionofthe
giganticEurasianorganism..."(95).46Unexpectedly,theUSSR"founditselfinalmostthesame
situationaspostwarGermany--itsworldinfluencereducedtonothing,itsterritorysharply
diminished,itseconomyandsocialspherereducedtoruins"(96).
DugincontendsthattheSovietdisasterof1989-1991,liketheearlierGermanone,resultedfroma
failureofthecountry'sleaderstoheedthecounselofitsgeopoliticians.Hitlerdisregardedthe
adviceofKarlHaushoferandotherspecialistswhenhedecidedtoinvadetheSovietUnionin
1941.Insimilarfashion,a"certainsecretdepartmentoftheGRU"andothervoiceshadbeen
advocatinga"Eurasian"coursefortheUSSR,buttheiradvicewentunheeded(103).
AsDuginseesit,the"project"thatWesternizingRussianreformersattemptedtoimplementduring
theGorbachevandYeltsinyearsbynowhasbeendiscreditedfully:"Thisprojectdeniessuch
valuesas
thepeople,thenation,history,geopoliticalinterests,socialjustice,thereligiousfactor,etc.Init,
everythingisconstructedontheprincipleofmaximaleconomiceffectiveness,ontheprimacyof
theindividual,onconsumerism,andthe'freemarket'"(179).
DuginbelievestheAtlanticists(especiallytheUnitedStates)consciouslyplottedthedownfallofthe
WarsawPactandtheUSSR."TheHeartlandthereforeisrequiredtopaybackSeaPowerinthe
samecoin"(367).Thegoal,asDuginseesit,istoresuscitateandreinvigorateEurasia/Russiaafter
thenear-fatalgeopoliticalblowsitabsorbedfrom1989to1991.
DuginemphasizesthatthecurrentRussianFederation,whichappearedin1991fromunderthe
rubbleoftheUSSR,isnotafull-fledgedstate,butrather"atransitionalformationinthebroadand
dynamicglobalgeopoliticalprocess"(183).Thenewstatesthathavecomeintoexistenceinthe
spaceoftheformerSovietUnionalsodonot,withthesoleexceptionofArmenia,possessany
markingsofauthenticstatehood(187).Insteadtheyrepresentartificial,ephemeralpolitical
constructs.
TheethnicRussianpeople,incontrast,areseenas"thebearersofauniquecivilization."47
Russiansareamessianicpeople,possessing"universal,pan-humansignificance"(189).The
Russianpeople,Dugininsists,canserveonlyasthecoreethnosofavastempire:"[T]heRussian
people(i.e.Russia)nevermadeitsgoalthecreationofamono-ethnic,raciallyuniformstate"
(190).Suchadistortedviewrepresents"theAtlanticistlinemaskingitselfas'Russiannationalism'"
(213).
"Arepudiationoftheempire-buildingfunction,"Duginwarnssternly,"wouldsignifytheendofthe
Russianpeopleasahistoricalreality,asacivilizationalphenomenon.Sucharepudiationwouldbe
tantamounttonationalsuicide"(197).Deprivedofanempire,Russianswill"disappearasanation"
(251).Thesoleviablecourse,inDugin'sview,isforRussianstoreboundfromthedebacleof
1989-1991byrecreatingagreat"supra-nationalempire,"oneinwhichethnicRussianswould
occupy"aprivilegedposition"(251-252).Theresultofsucharebuildingeffortwouldbe"agiant
continentalstateintheadministrationofwhichthey[Russians]willplaythecentralrole"(253).
Thisethnicmodel,Duginnotes,isquitesimilartothatoftheformerSovietUnion.
InordertofacilitatetherecreationofavastRussian-dominatedcontinentalempire,Dugin
advocatestheunleashingofRussiannationalistsentiment,butofaspecifictype."This[Russian]
nationalism,"hewrites,"shouldnotemploystatebut,rather,cultural-ethnicterminology,witha
specialemphasisonsuchcategoriesas'Narodnost"and'RussianOrthodoxy'"(255).Religious
sentiment,Duginurges,shouldbeplacedfrontandcenter:"Russiansshouldrealizethattheyare
Orthodoxinthefirstplace[ethnic]Russiansinthesecondplaceandonlyinthethirdplace,
people"(255).Thereisaneed,Dugininsists,forthe"totalchurchification"ofRussians,forthe
Russiannationtobecomeviewedsimplyas"theChurch"(255-256).Suchanemphasis,he
believes,should--togetherwithapersistentfocusonthegloriouspastandbrightfutureofthe
Russiannation--helpbringaboutthe"demographicupsurge"sodesperatelyneededbyRussians
today.Economicincentivesbythemselveswillproveinsufficienttopromotesuchanupsurge(256-
257).One"radical"slogan,Duginconcludes,mustbeconsistentlyputforward:"Thenationis
everythingtheindividualisnothing"(257).ThissloganencapsulatesoneofDugin'smost
cherishedbeliefs.
GuttingAtlanticism
Employingthe"strategyoftheAnaconda"(atermborrowedbyDuginfrominter-warGerman
geopoliticiansusedinreferencetoBritain),theUnitedStatesanditsclosealliesareseenas
exerting
unrelentingpressureonallEurasiancoastalzones(103,110).Followingpreceptsenunciatedby
FrancisFukuyamaamongothers,theUnitedStatesseekstoimplantitsownpoliticalandeconomic
modelthroughouttheglobe(127).Moreover,followingtheprescriptionsofPaulWolfowitz,the
UnitedStatesattemptstoreduceRussia'sroletothatofalowly"regionalpower"(199).Incynical
fashion,theUnitedStateswantsto"transformRussiaintoan'ethnicreservation'sothatitcan
receivefullcontrolovertheworld"(169).
HowisarevivedEurasian--Russianempiretobringabout"thegeopoliticaldefeatoftheU.S."
(260)?AnappropriateresponsetotheloomingAtlanticistthreat,Dugincontends,isforthe
renascentEurasian-Russianempiretodirectallofitspowers(shortofignitingahotwar),aswell
asthoseoftheremainderofhumanity,againsttheAtlanticistAnaconda."Atthebasisofthe
geopoliticalconstructionofthis[Eurasian]Empire,"Duginwrites,"theremustbeplacedone
fundamentalprinciple--theprincipleof'acommonenemy.'AnegationofAtlanticism,arepudiation
ofthestrategiccontroloftheUnitedStates,andtherejectionofthesupremacyofeconomic,
liberalmarketvalues--thisrepresentsthecommoncivilizationalbasis,thecommonimpulsewhich
willpreparethewayforastrongpoliticalandstrategicunion"(216).Theanti-Americanismofthe
Japanese,"whorememberwellthenucleargenocideandthedisgraceofpoliticaloccupation,"must
beunleashed,aswellastheferventanti-AmericanismoffundamentalistMuslimIranians(234,
241).Onaglobalscale,Dugindeclares,"themain'scapegoat'willbepreciselytheU.S."(248).
OnewayinwhichRussiawillbeabletoturnotherstatesagainstAtlanticismwillbeanastuteuse
ofthecountry'srawmaterialriches."Inthebeginningstage[ofthestruggleagainstAtlanticism],"
Duginwrites,"RussiacanofferitspotentialpartnersintheEastandWestitsresourcesas
compensationforexacerbatingtheirrelationswiththeU.S."(276).ToinducetheAnacondato
releaseitsgriponthecoastlineofEurasia,itmustbeattackedrelentlesslyonitshometerritory,
withinitsownhemisphere,andthroughoutEurasia."Alllevelsofgeopoliticalpressure,"Dugin
insists,"mustbeactivatedsimultaneously"(367).
WithintheUnitedStatesitself,thereisaneedfortheRussianspecialservicesandtheirallies"to
provokeallformsofinstabilityandseparatismwithinthebordersoftheUnitedStates(itis
possibletomakeuseofthepoliticalforcesofAfro-Americanracists)"(248)."Itisespecially
important,"Duginadds,"tointroducegeopoliticaldisorderintointernalAmericanactivity,
encouragingallkindsofseparatismandethnic,socialandracialconflicts,activelysupportingall
dissidentmovements--extremist,racist,andsectariangroups,thusdestabilizinginternalpolitical
processesintheU.S.Itwouldalsomakesensesimultaneouslytosupportisolationisttendenciesin
Americanpolitics"(367).
Dugin'sEurasianprojectalsomandatesattackingtheUnitedStatesthroughCentralandSouth
America."TheEurasianproject,"Duginwrites,"proposesEurasianexpansionintoSouthand
CentralAmericawiththegoaloffreeingthemfromthecontroloftheNorth"(248).48Asaresult
ofsuchunrelentingdestabilizationefforts,theUnitedStatesanditscloseallyBritaineventuallywill
beforcedtoleavetheshoresofEurasia(andAfrica)."TheentiregiganticedificeofAtlanticism,"
Duginprophesies,"willcollapse"(259).Hebelievesthatthiscouldhappenunexpectedly,as
occurredwiththesuddencollapseoftheWarsawPactandtheUSSR.Expelledfromtheshoresof
Eurasia,theUnitedStateswouldthenberequiredto"limititsinfluencetotheAmericas"(367).
TheMoscow-BerlinAxis
WithintheterritorialsprawlofEurasia,Dugin'sprogramfocusesontheformationofthreekey
axes:Moscow-Berlin,Moscow-Tokyo,andMoscow-Teheran.WithregardtothefutureofEurope,
Duginwrites:"ThetaskofMoscowistotearEuropeawayfromthecontroloftheU.S.(NATO),to
assistEuropeanunification,andtostrengthentieswithCentralEuropeundertheaegisofthe
fundamentalexternalaxisMoscow-Berlin.Eurasianeedsaunited,friendlyEurope"(369).In
advocatingthispath,DuginappearstobeinfluencedbythewritingsoftheEuropeanNewRight,
whichfromthe1970son,arguedfor"thestrictneutralityofEuropeanditsdeparturefromNATO"
(139).ThebasisoftheMoscow-Berlinaxis,Duginwrites,willbe"theprincipleofacommon
enemy[thatis,theUnitedStates]"(216).
InexchangeforcooperatingwithRussiainthisproject,DuginproposesthatGermanybegiven
back"Kaliningradoblast'(EasternPrussia)"(228).AsaresultofaGrandAlliancebetweenRussia
andGermany,thetwocountrieswilldivvyuptheterritorieslyingbetweenthemintodefacto
spheresofdominance.Thereistobeno"sanitarycordon.""ThetaskofEurasia,"Dugin
emphasizes,"consistsinmakingsuresucha[sanitary]cordondoesnotexist"(370).Russiaand
Germanytogether,heinsists,"mustdecidealldisputedquestionstogetherandinadvance"(226).
TheintegrationofswathsofWesternandCentralEuropeanterritoryintoaGermansphereof
dominancewillbeencourageddirectlyandabettedbyEurasia-Russia.Theformationofa"Franco-
Germanbloc"especiallyistobesupported(171)."InGermanyandFrance,'"Duginasserts,"there
isafirmanti-Atlanticisttradition"(369).Germany'sinfluencelikelywillspreadtothesouth--to
ItalyandSpain(220).OnlyBritain,"anextraterritorialfloatingbaseoftheU.S."istobecutoff
andshunned(221).
Movingeastward,DuginproposesofferingGermanydefactopoliticaldominanceovermost
ProtestantandCatholicstateslocatedwithinCentralandEasternEurope.The"unstable"stateof
Finland,which"historicallyentersintothegeopoliticalspaceofRussia"isseenasanexception
(316).Inthisinstance,DuginproposesthatFinlandbecombinedtogetherwiththeKarelian
AutonomousRepublicoftheRussianFederationintoasingleethnoterritorialformation"with
maximalculturalautonomy,butwithstrategicintegrationintotheEurasianbloc"(371-372).The
northernregionsofFinland,Duginadds,shouldbeexcisedanddonatedtoMurmanskoblast'.
OnthesubjectoftheBalticstates,DuginproposesthatEstoniaberecognizedaslyingwithin
Germany'ssphere.A"specialstatus,"ontheotherhand,shouldbeaccordedtobothLatviaand
Lithuania,whichsuggeststhattheyaretobeallocatedtotheEurasian-Russiansphere.Poland,
too,istobegrantedsucha"specialstatus"(372).
WithregardtotheBalkans,Duginassigns"thenorthoftheBalkanpeninsulafromSerbiato
Bulgaria"towhathetermsthe"RussianSouth"(343)."SerbiaisRussia,"asubheadinginthebook
declaresunambiguously(462).InDugin'sopinion,allofthestatesofthe"Orthodoxcollectivist
East"withtimewillseektoestablishbindingtiesto"MoscowtheThirdRome,"thusrejectingthe
snaresofthe"rational-individualisticWest"(389,393).ThestatesofRomania,Macedonia,
"SerbianBosnia,"andevenNATO-memberGreeceintime,Duginpredicts,willbecomeconstituent
partsoftheEurasian-RussianEmpire(346,383).
AsfortheformerunionrepublicsoftheUSSRsituatedwithinEurope,theyall,inDugin'sview,
(withtheexceptionofEstonia)shouldbeabsorbedbyEurasia-Russia."Belorussia,"Duginasserts
flatly,
"shouldbeseenasapartofRussia"(377).Insimilarfashion,Moldovaisseenasapartofwhat
Dugincalls"theRussianSouth"(343).
OnthekeyquestionofUkraine,Duginunderlines:"Ukraineasastatehasnogeopoliticalmeaning.
Ithasnoparticularculturalimportoruniversalsignificance,nogeographicuniqueness,noethnic
exclusiveness"(377)."Ukraineasanindependentstatewithcertainterritorialambitions,"hewarns,
"representsanenormousdangerforallofEurasiaand,withoutresolvingtheUkrainianproblem,it
isingeneralsenselesstospeakaboutcontinentalpolitics"(348).Andheaddsthat,"[T]he
independentexistenceofUkraine(especiallywithinitspresentborders)canmakesenseonlyasa
'sanitarycordon'"(379).However,aswehaveseen,forDuginallsuch"sanitarycordons"are
inadmissible.
DuginspeculatesthatthreeextremewesternregionsofUkraine--Volynia,Galicia,andTrans-
Carpathia--heavilypopulatedwithUniatesandotherCatholics,couldbepermittedtoforman
independent"WesternUkrainianFederation."Butthisareamustnotunderanycircumstancesbe
permittedtofallunderAtlanticistcontrol(382).Withtheexceptionofthesethreewesternregions,
Ukraine,likeBelorussia,isseenasanintegralpartofEurasia-Russia.
Atonepointinhisbook,Duginconfidesthatallarrangementsmadewith"theEurasianblocofthe
continentalWest,"headedbyGermany,willbemerelytemporaryandprovisionalinnature."The
maximumtask[ofthefuture],"heunderscores,"isthe'Finlandization'ofallofEurope"(369).
TheMoscow-TokyoAxis
ThecornerstoneofDugin'sapproachtotheFarEastliesinthecreationofa"Moscow-TokyoAxis."
InrelationtoJapan,heemphasizes,"theprincipleofacommonenemy[thatis,theUnited
States]"willprovedecisive(234).AsinthecaseofGermany,Japanistobeofferedanimperial
GrandBargain.DuginrecommendsthattheKurilesberestoredtoJapanasKaliningradistobe
restoredtoGermany(238).Forfutureexpansionpurposes,Japanistobeencouragedtoimpose
"itsown'neworder,'whichitplannedtocarryoutinthe1930s,inthePacificOcean"(277).
DuginnotesthatanotherimportantallyofEurasia-RussiawillbeIndia,which,likeJapan,willbe
invitedtojoinRussiaineffortstocontainandperhapsdismemberChina.ThetwoKoreasand
Vietnamalsowillbeinvitedtoparticipateinthiseffort(360).Mongoliaisseenasconstituting"a
strategicallyofRussia"andistobeabsorbeddirectlyintoEurasia-Russia(363).
LiketheUnitedStates,thePeople'sRepublicofChinaisseenasconstitutinganenormousdanger
forEurasia-Russia.OnceitrejectedMao'shealthypathof"peasantsocialism,"Chinasetabout
institutingeconomicreformsthathavebeenachieved"atthepriceofadeepcompromisewiththe
West"(232-233).China,inDugin'sperverseview,vergesuponbeinganAtlanticistfactotum.
Atseveralpointsinhisbook,DugingivesventtoafearthatChinamightatsometimeinthe
future"undertakeadesperatethrusttotheNorth--intoKazakhstanandEasternSiberia"(172).In
asectiontitled"TheFallofChina,"Dugindirectlywarns:"Chinaisthemostdangerousgeopolitical
neighborofRussiatotheSouth"(359).China,hemaintains,isadangertoRussiaboth"asa
geopoliticalbaseforAtlanticismandbyitself,asacountrywithheighteneddemographic
compactnessinquestof'noman'sland'"(360).
BecauseofthethreattoRussia'svitalgeopoliticalinterestsrepresentedbyChina,Duginholdsthat
thePRCmustbedismantled.Heunderlines:"Tibet-Sinkiang-Mongolia-Manchuriatakentogether
compriseasecuritybeltofRussia"(363).Eurasia-Russiamustseek,atallcosts,topromote"the
territorialdisintegration,splinteringandthepoliticalandadministrativepartitionofthe[Chinese]
state"(360)."WithoutSinkiangandTibet,"heconcludes,"thepotentialgeopoliticalbreakthrough
ofChinaintoKazakhstanandSiberiabecomesimpossible"(362).
As"geopoliticalcompensation"forthelossofitsnorthernregions,China,Duginrecommends,
shouldbeoffereddevelopment"inasoutherndirection--Indochina(exceptVietnam),the
Philippines,Indonesia,Australia"(363).TheseareasconstituteChina'sappropriatesphereof
dominance.
Itshouldbenotedthatinthelengthypostscriptsectionappendedtothe1999versionof
FoundationsofGeopolitics,DuginreaffirmshisbeliefintheneedforEurasia-Russiatoeffecta
dismemberingofChina(781).InaninterviewgivenbyDugininlateJuly2001,however,he
backedoffslightlyfromthisposition--presumablyindeferencetoPutin'sstatedpositiononChina-
-butonlytoadegree.HecontinuedtoinsistthatRussia'srelationswithJapan,Iran,andIndia
weremorevitalandsignificantthanthosewithChina.49
TheMoscow-TeheranAxis
ThemostambitiousandcomplexpartofDugin'sprogramconcernstheSouth,wherethefocal
pointisaMoscow-Teheranaxis."TheideaofacontinentalRussian-Islamicalliance,"hewrites,
"liesatthefoundationofanti-Atlanticiststrategy.[T]hisallianceisbasedonthetraditional
characterofRussianandIslamiccivilization"(158)."Onthewhole,"hecontinues,"theentire
IslamiczonerepresentsanaturallyfriendlygeopoliticalrealityinrelationtotheEurasianEmpire,
sincetheIslamictradition...fullyunderstandsthespiritualincompatibilityofAmericaandreligion.
TheAtlanticiststhemselvesseetheIslamicworld,onthewhole,astheirpotentialopponent"
(239).
AstheresultofanespeciallybroadGrandAlliancetobeconcludedwithIran,Duginmaintinsthat
Eurasia-Russiawillenjoytheprospectofrealizingacenturies-oldRussiandreamandfinallyreach
the"warmseas"oftheIndianOcean."InrelationtotheSouth,"hewrites,"the'geopoliticalaxisof
history'[Russia]hasonlyoneimperative--geopoliticalexpansiontotheshoresoftheIndian
Ocean"(341)."Havingreceivedgeopoliticalaccess--inthefirstplace,navalbases--ontheIranian
shores,"hewrites,"Eurasiawillenjoyfullsecurityfromthestrategyofthe'Anacondaring'"(241).
Eurasia-RussiaandtheEmpireofIran,heemphasizes,willhave"oneandthesamegeopolitical
tendency"(242).
AsaconsequenceofthisGrandAlliance,Eurasia-Russiashouldbepreparedtodivideupthe
imperialspoilswith"theIslamicEmpireintheSouth"(239).Afteraskingthequestion"Whatisthe
RussianSouth?"Duginclaimsthatitincludes"theCaucasus[allofit]""theeasternandnorthern
shoresoftheCaspian(theterritoriesofKazakhstanandTurkmeniya)""CentralAsia,including
Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,KirgiziyaandTajikistan"plus"Mongolia."Eventheseregions,henotes,
shouldbeseen"aszonesoffurthergeopoliticalexpansiontothesouthandnotas'eternalborders
ofRussia'"(343)."ControlovertheCaucasus,"Duginnotesatonepointinthebook,"opens...an
exittothe'warmseas'"(349).
TheextensivestretchofterritorylyingtothesouthoftheRussianFederationistobedivviedup
withafutureIranianEmpireandwithArmeniaaswell."Aspecialgeopoliticalrole,"Duginwrites,
"isplayedbyArmenia,whichisatraditionalandreliableallyofRussiaintheCaucasus.Armenia
willserveasa
mostimportantstrategicbaseinthethwartingofTurkishaggressiontothenorthandtotheeast."
Itisnecessary,thereforetocreate"the[subsidiary]axisMoscow-Erevan-Teheran"(352)."The
Armenians,"Duginunderscoreswithapproval,"areanAryanpeople...[like]theIraniansandthe
Kurds"(243).
AzerbaijanrepresentsoneexampleofhowthetrioEurasia-Russia,Iran,andArmeniamightchoose
todivideupthespoils."IfAzerbaijan,"Duginwarns,"maintainsits[present]pro-Turkish
orientation,thenthat'country'willbesplitupamongIran,Russia,andArmenia.Almostthesame
holdstruewithregardtootherregionsoftheCaucasus--Chechnya,Abkhaziya,Dagestan,etc."
(243)."Itmakessense,"Duginwriteselsewhere,"tobindAzerbaijantoIran"(352).
AccordingtoDugin,Kazakhstanwillbeintegrated"intoacommoncontinentalblocwithRussia"
(354).Abkhaziya,too,willbetied"directlytoRussia"(351).Hespeculatesthata"unitedOsetiya"
alsomightbeincorporatedintoEurasia-Russia(351).AndasfortheremainingpartsofGeorgia?
DuginimpliesthatwhatremainsofthisOrthodoxChristiancountryafterRussiaabsorbsAbkhaziya
andSouthOsetiyamightbeturnedovertoIranasbooty,appropriatepunishment,presumably,for
itspricklyindependentcoursetowardRussiainthepost-communistperiod.
AccordingtoDugin,akeyreasonforconcludingaGrandAlliancewithIranisRussia'sneedfora
MuslimallyinitsstruggleagainstsecularTurkeyand"IslamicSaudiArabia"withitsdangerous
Wahhabism.TurkeyistobetreatedasharshlyastheUnitedStatesandChina."Itisimportant,"
Duginwrites,"totakeintoconsiderationthenecessityofaffixingtoTurkeytheroleof'scapegoat'
inthis[Eurasian]project"(244).Kurds,Armenians,andotherTurkishminoritiesaretobe
provokedintorebellion.Duginstressestheneedtocreate"geopoliticalshocks"withinTurkey
(352).LikeAzerbaijan,DuginpredictsthatTurkeycouldbedismemberedbyEurasia-Russia,Iran,
andArmeniainthefuture.Ifsuchadismembermentshouldnotoccur,however,Turkey,likeChina,
mustbeencouragedtoexpandexclusivelysouthward,"intotheArabworldthroughBaghdad,
Damascus,andRiyadh"(244).
Conclusion
Inamomentofexultantimperialelan,Duginrevealinglytrumpetsatonepointinhisbook,"The
battlefortheworldruleof[ethnic]Russianshasnotended"(213).Itisnecessarytospeakthe
unvarnishedtruth.AnofficialadviserongeopoliticstothespeakeroftheRussianDumaisa
dangerousRussianfascist.Ashasbeennoted,Duginalsoreportedlyenjoysclosetiestoelements
inthepresidentialadministration,thesecretservices,themilitary,andtheparliament.Although
Dugin'sinfluenceshouldnotbeexaggerated,italsoshouldnotbeunderstated.Oneisrequiredto
askwhetherRussianfascism--atendencywhichexhibitscontemptbothforinternationalborders
andforinternationallaw--hasarealisticchanceofemergingasthe"newpoliticalthinking"in
internationalaffairsinVladimirPutin'sRussia.Inlate1998,RussianacademicAndreiTsygankov
appropriatelywarnedthatthediscourseofDuginandoflike-minded"Eurasians"isinreality"the
discourseofwar."50
InterviewedbyajournalistfromthearmynewspaperKrasnyazvezdainMay2001,Duginpatiently
explained:"EurasianspaceistheterritoryofRussia,thecountriesoftheCISandapartofthe
adjacentterritoriestotheWestandtotheSouth,wherethereisnoclear-cutgeopolitical
orientation.AllofthiscomprisesEurasianstrategicspacebroadlyunderstood."51Thearmy
reporterofferednoobjectionstothisquitemadschema.
AleksandrDugin'sFoundationsofGeopolitics,tosummarize,representsaharshandcynical
repudiationofthearchitectureofinternationalrelationsthatwaslaboriouslyerectedfollowingthe
carnageoftheSecondWorldWarandtheemergenceofnuclearweapons.Duginandhis"system,"
itseems,resemblethecombustibleinterwarperiodandtheriseoffascisminEurope,withthelurid
imperialfantasiesoftheDuce,theFuhrer,andotherfascistdemagogues.Couldareversiontoa
destructivepastbethe"dividend"whichRussiaandtheWestaretoreceiveforhavingfinallyand
withenormouseffortputanendtothecoldwar?
NOTES
TheauthorwouldliketothankRobertOttoforgenerousandextremelyhelpfulbibliographicalassistance.ThanksalsotoGlenHowardforbringingseveralusefulbibliographicalitemstomy
attentionandtomyresearchassistants,JoyceCerwinandYuliyaShmeleva,fortheirfinework.
1.FrancoiseThom,"Eurasiansm:AnewRussianforeignpolicy?"UncaptiveMinds7,no.2(1994):76.
2.AleksandrDugin,Aleksandr.Osnovygeopolitiki:GeopoliticheskoebudushcheeRossii(Moscow:Arktogeya,1997).ThebookwasrepublishedwithoutchangebyDuginin1999,together
withlengthysupplementalmaterials--ofnogreatsignificance--appendedunderthetitleMyslit'prostranstvom.Myreferencesaretothe1997edition.
3.Unlessotherwiseindicated,thebiographicalinformationonDuginprovidedinthispapercomesfromStephenShenfield,RussianFascism:Traditions,Tendencies,Movements(Armonk,NY:
M.E.Sharpe,2001),190-220.
4.SeeMarinaLatysheva,Issledovatelitemnykhsilizdvizheniya'Evraziya'sdelalidlyaprezidentaanalaticheskiitsentrigotovyzamenit'MID.Versiya,May29,2001.
5.CharlesClover,"WilltheRussianbearroaragain?"FinancialTimes,December12,2000.
6.Shenfield,195.ForarepresentativesampleofDugin'stheoreticalfascistwritings,seeAleksandrDugin,Absolyutnayarodina(Moscow:Arktogeya,1999).
7.Shenfield,192.
8.OnProkhanov,seeJohnB.Dunlop,TheRiseofRussiaandtheFalloftheSovietEmpire,2d.ed.(Princeton,NJ:PrincetonUniversityPress,1995),169-177.
9.AleksandrVerkhovskiiandVladimirPribylovskii,Natsional-patrioticheskieorganizatsiivRossii(Moscow:Izdatel'stvo'Instituteksperimental'noisotsiologii,'1996),50.
10.Ibid.,51.
11.BerniceGlatzerRosenthal,TheOccultinRussianandSovietCulture(Ithaca,NY:CornellUniversityPress,1997),395.
12.See"Rossiya,Germaniyaidrugie,"Elementy,1(1992):22-25.
13.Shenfield,198.
14.Clover.
15.Thorn,67-68.
16.AleksandrDugin,Konspiratologiya(Moscow:Arktogeya,1993),115.17.VerkhovskiiandPribylovskii,50.
18.WayneAllensworth,TheRussianQuestion:Nationalism,ModernizationandPost-CommunistRussia(Lanham,MD:RowmanandLittlefield,1998),257.
19.Shenfield,194.
20.Clover.
21.Shenfield,199.
22."100vedushchikhpolitkovRossiiviyune,"Nezavisimayagazeta,July10,2001.23.Shenfield,197.
24.See"Stenogrammarabotyuchreditel'nogos'ezdaObshcherossiiskogoPoliticheskogoObshchestvennogoDvizheniya'Evraziya,'21aprelya2001,"athttp://eurasia.com.ru:8101/syezd.htm.
25.SeeAleksandrDugin,introductiontoNikolaiTrubetskoiNasledieChingizkhana(Moscow:AGRAF,1999),5-25.
26.AleksandrDugin"Evraziiskayaplatforma,"Zavtra,January21,2000.
27.AleksandrDugin"Zaryavsapogakh,"Zavtra,March31,2000.
28.AndreiKolesnikov"Poslepodvodnoilodki,"Izvestiya,August29,2000.
29.VladimirPutin,"Rossiyavsegdaoshchushchalasebyaevroaziatskoistranoi,"Strana.ru,November13,2000.
30.http://www.arctogaia.com/public/putin/htrr,May23,2001.
31.YaroslavaZabello"Evraziya--prevyshevsego?"Transkaspiiskiiproekt:informat-siono-
analaticheskiiserver,June13,2001.
32.PavelPolnyan"Sibir'otchenlyaetsyalegko,"MoskovskiikomsomoltsvKrasno-yarske,29,July18,
2001,http://arctogaia.krasu.ru/eurasia/dugin_krskl2.shtrr.
33.GrigoriiOsterman"Eslivakhkhabizmnesdaetsya,egoipravlyayut,"June28,2001,SMI.ru,.
34.AleksandrMaksimovandOrkhanKarabaagi."Onivsvoikhkorridorakh,"Obshchayagazeta,May31,2001.
35.Latysheva.
36."Stenogramma..."
37.Strana.ru,June4,2001.
38.TadzhuddinisrecognizedbyaminorityofthefortyMuslimadministrationsinRussia,buthecanboastof"notatallbadconnectionswiththe[Russian]specialservices,"withwhomhehas
beencooperatingsincetakinguphiscurrentpostin1980.SeeMaksimovandKarabaagi.ItshouldbenotedthatonJune19,2001,arivalorganizationof"Eurasians,"headedbystateDuma
deputyAbdul-VakhedNiyazov,heldafoundingcongressforanewEurasianPartyofRussia(EPR).NiyazovisanethnicRussian(formerlyVadimMedvedev),whoconvertedtoIslamin1996.
OnJuly26,2001,theEPR,withbranchesinseventyregionsofRussia,wasregisteredbytheRussianMinistryofJustice.DuginhasassailedthisrivalgroupasbeingwittingtoolsofSaudi
ArabiaandofWahhabism.Anumberofwell-knownleadersofMuslimbackgroundinRussiaandinCISstates,ontheotherhand,haveofferedsupportfortheEPR.Theseleadersinclude
AslambekAslakhanov,RamazanAbdulatipov,ChingizAitmatov,OlzhasSuleimenov,StanislavDerev,andMuftiAkhmadKadyrov.ThepresidentsofKazakhstan,NursultanNazarbaev,andof
Tatarstan,MintimerShaimiev,alsohaveindicatedadegreeofsupport.SeeNovyeizvestiiya(June30,2001andJuly27,2001)Nezavisimayagazeta(June8,2001andJuly31,2001)SMI.ru
(June19,2001)Moskovskiikomsomolets(August3,2001)andNG-religii(August8,2001).
39.AleksandrDugin"Interv'yudlya'EkhoMoskvy-Krsnoyarsk',"25iyulya2001,postedat:http://arctogaia.krasu.ru/eurasia/dugin_int_1.shtm.
40.See"Rossiyadolzhnauchest'oshibkiAmeriki,"Nezavisimayagazeta,September13,2001.ForDugin'stakeontheeventsofSeptember11,seehis"Lastochki
Apokalipsa,"http://arctogaia.com/public/lastochki.html,September12,2001.
41.EvgeniiIkhlov"Onivsvoikhkorridorakh:Dvestoronynovogoevraziistva,"Obshchayagazeta,August2,2001.
42.DmitriiRadyshevskii"Soblaznevraziistva,"Moskovskienovosti18,May1-14,2001.
43.Forausefulsurveyoftwentieth-centuryWesterngeopoliticalliterature,seeGeoffreyParkerWesternGeopoliticalThoughtintheTwentiethCentury(London:CroomHelm,1985).Chapter
fiveofParker'sbookisdevotedto"GermanGeopolitik."
44.Allensworth,249.45.Ibid.,251.
46.Hereandsubsequently,thepagenumbersgiveninparenthesesrefertothe1997editionofDugin'sbook.
IdeologueOfEmpire
byIlanBerman
WallStreetJournalEurope
November3,2005
Chancesare,you'veneverheardofAlexanderDugin.IntheU.S.andEurope,thesoft-spokenRussianpolitical
philosopherisstillverymuchamarginalfigure.ButwithinRussiaitself,the43-year-oldstrategisthasbecome
aninfluentialpoliticalforce.And,increasingly,hisradicalideasaboutareconstituted,anti-Westernempireare
makingtheirmarkonRussianforeignpolicy.
Mr.Dugin'spoliticalpastismiredincontroversy.Duringthe1980s,hereportedlyworkedasanarchivistfor
theKGB,wherehewasexposedto,andinfluencedby,theideasoftheearly"Eurasianists"--Russianthinkers
likeLevGumilyovwho,intheearly1900s,hadmodernizedandpopularizedtheideaofRussia'shistorical
destinyasanempire.Aone-timefascist,Mr.Duginjoinedforceswithcontroversialwriter/activistEduard
Limonovintheearly1990stoformtheNationalBolshevikParty(NBP),usingitasaplatformtoadvocatea
"conservativerevolution"pittingRussiaagainsttheWest.
Bythelate1990s,however,Mr.DuginhadbrokenwithMr.LimonovandtheNBPinpursuitofamorepuritan
politicalapproach.In1997,hegainedprominencewiththepublicationofhisseminalwork,"Osnovy
Geopolitike"(TheFoundationsofGeopolitics)--arambling,924-pagetreatiseadvocatingthere-creationofan
anti-WesternRussianempire.Init,Mr.DuginpostulatedthatRussiaandtheU.S.aredestinedforglobal
confrontation,andproposedaseriesofalliancesthroughwhichRussiacanachieveinternationaldominance.
Sincethen,Mr.Duginhasbegunputtingtheseprinciplesintopractice.In2000,hecreated"Eurasia,"asocio-
politicalmovementdedicatedtotherevivaloftheartofgeopolitics--andtotheideaofa"GreaterRussia"
stretchingfromtheMiddleEasttothePacific.Notsurprisingly,thegroup'sheadycocktailofmysticism,
religioussymbolismandgoodold-fashionedpoliticalpartisanshipfoundmorethanafewtakersamongRussians
disenchantedwiththeircountry'ssecond-rateeconomicandpoliticalstatus.(Today,accordingtoMr.Dugin,his
movementboastssome25,000membersinRussiaanditsso-called"nearabroad,"manyofthemcurrentand
formermembersoftheRussianintelligenceservicesandmilitary.)Twoandahalfyearslater,Mr.Dugin'sideas
wereformallyentrenchedinRussianpoliticaldiscoursewiththecharteringofhis"EurasiaParty,"apolitical
factiondeeplysupportiveofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sforeignpolicyline.
Overtheyears,Mr.Dugin'sinfluencehasebbedandflowedwiththecurrentsofRussianforeignpolicy.Before
September11th,hisideasaboutmultipolarityandanti-Americanismwereverymuchinvogueinthecorridors
oftheKremlin,withMr.DuginreportedlyservingasanunofficialadvisertoanumberofimportantRussian
defenseofficialsanddiplomats.ButinthewakeoftheterroristattacksonNewYorkandWashington,Mr.
Dugin'sstarwaned.AgainstthecounselofmanyinMoscow,PresidentPutinralliedtothesideoftheUnited
States,supportingthewaronterrorandtheU.S.offensiveagainsttheTalibanandalQaedainAfghanistan.
Gradually,however,Mr.Dugin'sphilosophyhasresurfaced,buoyedbyawaveofrenewednationalistsentiment
andimperialimpulses.IntheaftermathoftheU.S.-ledcampaignagainstSaddamHussein'sIraq,Washington's
cooperationwithMoscowhascooled,andtheKremlinhasrevertedtooldhabits.IntheMiddleEast,inlinewith
Mr.Dugin'sdictums,theRussiangovernmentisstubbornlynurturingitsnuclearcontactswithIran,aswellas
expandingarmssuppliestothebeleagueredregimeofSyriandictatorBasharAssad.InAsia,Moscowisdrifting
closertoChinainastrategicpartnershipthatMr.Duginhaspraisedasan"allianceintheheartofEurasia."
AndinCentralAsiaandtheCaucasus,theKremlinisgravitatingtowardanincreasinglyhostile,anti-American
foreignpolicystance,nervousovertherecentdemocratictransformationsthathavetakenplaceinGeorgia,
UkraineandKyrgyzstan.
Mr.Dugin,forhispart,isseizingthemoment.Thephilosopherhasprovidedmuch-neededintellectualcoverfor
thissummer'slandmarkRussian-Chinesemilitarymaneuvers,whichhaveelicitedseriousworriesintheWest.
Thistypeofaggressivemilitarycooperationisonlynatural,Mr.Duginexplains,becausebothcountriesare
threatenedbytherecentUkrainian,GeorgianandKyrgyz"colorrevolutions"--andbytheperceived
"Americanconnection"tothesetransformations.
Mr.DuginhasalsothrownhisweightbehindMoscow'seffortstooustAmericaninfluencefromthe"post-Soviet
space.""Anewstrategicblocistakingshapebeforeoureyes,"herecentlywrotewithadmirationinthe
newspaperVedomosti."TheAmericansarefirmlyresolvedtocontinuetheirpolicyinEurasia,"and"Russia's
salvation"lieswiththeShanghaiCooperationOrganization,aMoscow-andBeijing-ledregionalanti-Western
allianceencompassingmanyoftheformerSovietrepublics.
Athome,meanwhile,Mr.Duginischannelinghisenergiestowardthemobilizationofvariousnationalistforces.
Inrecentweeks,hisEurasiamovementhasspearheadedtherapprochementofvariousethnicandpolitical
groupsinRussiaandthenearabroad.Thegoal,accordingtoMr.Dugin,isthecreationofasweeping"Anti-
Orange"politicalfrontaimedatconfrontingthenew,pluralisticandpro-WesterngovernmentsinUkraineand
Georgia--andofpreventingsimilardemocraticinroadsinanincreasinglyauthoritarianRussia.
Asthesemaneuverssuggest,Mr.Dugin'svisionisxenophobic,antidemocraticanddeeplyanti-Western.
Alarmingly,italsoappearstobegainingseriousgroundinPutin'sRussia,whereauthoritariandriftand
oppositiontotheU.S.areagainbecomingtheorderoftheday.
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 08/01/201602:35:40PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue139
Viewthisemailinyourbrowser
August1,2016--Volume13,Issue139
INTHISISSUE
*NATOchangesformatofcooperationwithGeorgia
*RussiasdefenseministrymovesaheadwithmilitarizingArctic
*Lukashenkastaysmumonpossibleaccidentatnuclearpowerplantconstructionsite

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)
NATO-Georgia:VariedMenu,UncertainFinancing

ItwasasummitofmodestexpectationsandmodestresultsfortheNorthAtlantic
TreatyOrganization(NATO)inWarsawonJuly89.Theseresultsareofaninterim
nature:building-blocksforfurtherdecisionsatupcomingministerialmeetings,not
waitinguntilthenextsummit.TheWarsawresultsdonot,asyet,correlatewiththe
growthinRussiascapacitytothreaten,intimidate,orsubverttheAlliancegenerally
anditseasternnowfrontlinemembercountriesinparticular.

DecisionsadoptedattheWarsawSummithavechangedtheframeworkofNATOsrelations
withGeorgia,thetopperformeramongcountriesaspiringtoNATOmembership(seeEDM,
July27,29).From2008(whenNATOformalizedGeorgiasaspirantcountrystatus)todate,
partnershipprogramsoperatedinaNATO-Georgiaframework.TheAlliances2014Wales
summit,however,endorsedanumberoffreshprojectsthatwouldembedGeorgiaincommon
activitieswithvariablegroupingsofNATOmemberandpartnercountries.

TheAlliancemarkedtimefortwomoreyearsuntilannouncingthestarttotheimplementation
ofthesenewprojectsattheWarsawsummitjustheld(WarsawSummitCommuniqu,
Nato.int,July9,pars.101,110113NATO-GeorgiaCommissionjointstatement,Nato.int,
July8).

Thenewprojectsinclude:
TheSubstantialNATO-GeorgiaPackage(SNGP),aimingtostrengthenGeorgias
defensecapabilitiesandtodevelopinter-operabilitywithNATOmembersthrough
liaisonandadvice,trainingandexercises.
TheNATO-GeorgianJointTrainingandEvaluationCenter(JTEC)atKrtsanisi,defined
asSNGPskeyelement,inauguratedin2015andconfirmedasupandrunningat
theWarsawSummitjustheld.
DefenseCapacityBuildingInitiative(DCBI),includingJTEC,whichisdefinedasthe
cornerstoneoftheimplementationofDCBI.MoldovaandJordanarealsoincluded
inDCBI.
DefenseInstitutionBuildingSchool(DIBS),justinauguratedinGeorgia,asreportedat
theWarsawSummit.Apparentlyitisdesignedtooffertraininginthegoodgovernance
andmanagementofthedefenseandsecuritysectorfortheGeorgianmilitary.
EnhancedOpportunities(EO)partnership,intheframeworkofNATOsPartnership
InteroperabilityInitiative(IPI)beingofferedtoGeorgiaaswellastonon-member
countriesFinland,Sweden,Jordan,andAustralia.Eachoneofthesecountriesshall
haveanindividual(tailored)programwithNATO.
millionattodaysexchangerate),thepurchaseisfinancedthroughaloanfromSociete
Generale,guaranteedbyFrancesexportcreditagencyCoface.Thesystemisduetobecome
operationalinGeorgiain2017(CivilGeorgia,July8,9).Onabilaterallevelagain,Georgiais
intheprocessofbuyinganairdefensesystemfromFrance.Thissystemincludesaground-
basedradar,command-and-controlsystemmadebyThalesRaytheonSystems,aswellasa
surface-to-airmissilesystemproducedbyMBDA(aFrance-headquarteredassociationof
severalmajorEuropeanarmsproducers).Contractedinmid-2015,atacombinedcost78
million($87
Nominallyatleast,theJuly1920consultations(seeabove)wereheldwithintheframework
oftheUS-GeorgiaCharterofStrategicPartnership,craftedbythen-AssistantSecretaryof
StateMatthewBryzainthefinaldaysoftheGeorgeW.Bushadministration,inJanuary2009.
ThatCharterremainsanunrequitedaffirmationofwhatusedtobeabilateralstrategic
partnership.
,July18)OnJuly1920,inWashington,aregularroundofUS-Georgiasecurityanddefense
consultationstookplace,aimingtoidentifywaysforthepracticalapplicationofthe
Memorandum.ThelengthydocumentisseeninTbilisiasaconsolationprizefortheNATO
summitsexpecteddecisiontowithholdaGeorgianmembershipactionplan(MAP).The
Memorandum,however,envisagesnospecificactionsandnotime-frame.Amemorandumof
understanding(MoU)wouldatleasthavecontainedsomespecifics,evenifnon-bindingones.
AnyfurtheractionwillprobablyhavetoawaitthepresidentialelectionintheUS(State.gov,
July6CivilGeorgia,July6,7,21).EDMOutsideNATOsframework,USSecretaryofState
JohnKerryandGeorgianPrimeMinisterGiorgiKvirikashvilisigned,onJuly6,inTbilisi,a
MemorandumonDeepeningtheDefenseandSecurityPartnershipbetweentheUnited
StatesandGeorgia(see
Thissummitscommuniquisfilledwithacronyms,abbreviations,andupper-caseinitialsof
programtitles,moreheavilythananypastsummitcommuniquregardingpartnerships
generallyandGeorgiaspecifically.Towhatextentthisalphabetsouptranslatesintoreal
actionswilldependonfinancing.AccordingtoNATOsandtheGeorgia-NATO
CommissionscommuniqusfromWarsaw,theAlliesdiscussedfinancingofthoseprograms
throughpossibletrustfunds.SuchtrustfundswereinitiatedforUkraineandforGeorgiaatthe
2014Walessummit.Theamountscollectedsincethenaremostlyunknown,andaregenerally
believedtobemeager.OnlyfiveNATOmembercountries(outof28)meetthebenchmarkof
spending2percentoftheirGDPsfordefense.Non-memberGeorgiadoes,andthesummit
didacknowledgethatGeorgiaisdoingitspartinallocatingsignificantresourcestothis
effort.
,July29).EDMGeorgiahostedtheNATOexercisesAgileSpiritannuallyfrom2011through
2014inabilateralUnitedStatesGeorgianformat.AgileSpiritbecameamultilateralexercise
in2015(battalion-sizeGeorgiantroops,twoUSmarinecompanies,andplatoon-sizeunits
fromLatvia,Lithuania,RomaniaandBulgaria),without-of-areapeacekeepingandpeace-
supportscenarios,ratherthancombatforhomelanddefense.ThenextAgileSpiritisduein
November2016,againasamultilateralexerciseitsscenariomayprovideanothertestof
NATOsseriousnessofpurposeinGeorgia.Meanwhile,thebilateralformatofUS-Georgia
exerciseshasshiftedtoNoblePartner,heldinMay2015andMay2016onmorerobust
combatscenarios,involvingasmallnumberofGeorgiantroops(see
TheNATO-GeorgiaCommission(NGC)metattheforeignministerslevelinthe28+1format
duringtheWarsawSummit,markingtheshiftfromtheAnnualNationalPlans(ANP,launched
in2008)tothenewformatsofflexiblecooperation.TheANPshadfailedtoassistGeorgia
withtrainingandarmingforhomelanddefense.ThisfailurewasaNATO-widepolicy.This
time,theCommissionscommuniquopensthedoorslightlyforAlliesbilaterallytoimplement
programstoenhanceGeorgiasdefenseandresiliencecapabilities.WhetherNATOstrend-
settingmembersinterpretdefenseaspermittinglethality,inGeorgiasorUkrainescase,
remainstobeseen.
,accessedJuly20).Thisbroadportfoliowillrequirecommensuratefinancinginordertoavoid
aselectiveimplementation.Nato.intOfalltheseprojects,JTECseemsthemosttangiblethus
far.Co-locatedwithGeorgiasownTrainingandMilitaryEducationCommand(TMEC)at
Krtsanisi,JTECisstaffedbysome30officersfromNATOmemberandpartnercountries.It
isdesignedtohostaNATOinteroperabilityteam,assistintheplanning,execution,and
evaluationofmultinationalexercises,conducttrainingsandsimulationsbasedonthreat
scenarios.ItisalsointendedtoassisttheGeorgianarmywithprofessionaldevelopment
programsoncyberdefense,strategiccommunications,crisismanagementprocedures(Civil
Georgia,July8,9).
--VladimirSocor
RussianMilitaryBuild-UpinArcticHighlightsKremlinsMilitarizedMindset
DespiteRussiaseconomiccrisis,whichhasalreadyimposedrestrictionsonmilitaryspending
(seeEDM,May3),theKremlinistryingtoimplementaquestionablebuildupintheArctic,
aimedatstrengtheningRussianmilitarymight.DuringarecentboardsessionoftheRussian
MinistryofDefense,MinisterSergeiShoigupaidspecialattentiontotheimplementationofthe
2020ActivityPlanbytheNorthernFleet.HeremindedparticipantsthattheNorthernFleet,
aninter-servicestrategicformation,wasformedovertwoyearsagoinordertoprotect
[the]northernbordersofRussia(Mil.ru,July27).Hementionedinparticularthatthe
constructionofclosed-loop(self-sustaining)militarytownswillbefinishedontheFranz
JosefLandarchipelagoandtheNovosibirskIslandsin2016.Ajointsituationalawareness
systemisbeingcreatedtosupportairdefense.
TheRussiandefenseministryintendstobuildorreconstructtenairfieldsintheArctic.
RussiasFederalAgencyforSpecialConstruction[Spetsstroy]isbuildingmilitary
infrastructurefacilitiesonsixislandsintheArctic, Izvestia quotesaministryofficial.
Accordingtothissource,over100tonsofmilitaryequipmentformorethan150facilitiesare
plannedtobedeliveredtotheseremotemilitarygarrisons.Inadditiontothematerielsupply,
morethan190tonsofconstructionmaterialsincludingprecastconcrete,cement,metal,
pipes,fittingsandequipmentwillbedeliveredtotheArcticforbuildingthefacilities
(Izvestia,July11).Theconstructionandrenovationofrunwaysandotherstructuresisongoing
atSeveromorsk-1airfield(Murmanskoblast)aswellasNagurskoyeairbase(Alexandra
LandIsland,intheFranzJosefArchipelago).TheairfieldsatRogachevo(Arkhangelsk
oblast),Tiksi(YakutiaRepublic)andTemp(KotelnyIslandintheArcticOcean)arealso
underconstruction.Itwasannouncedthatbeginningnextyear,Tiksiistobecomethe
permanentbaseforaformationofhigh-altitudeMiG-31interceptors(RossiiskayaGazeta,
July19).
Meanwhile,troopsdeployedintheArcticareundergoingintensivetraining.Specifically,units
ofmobilerapid-reactionforcesarebeingexposedtotheconditionsoftheFarNorth.During
severalsnapinspectionexercisesinthepastyear,theRussianGeneralStaffhasconcentrated
ontheabilitytoreinforcethreeland-basedbrigadesinMurmanskoblastthe200th
MotorizedRifleBrigade(Pechenga),the80thArcticMotorizedRifleBrigade(Alakurtti)and
the61s tMarineBrigade(Sputnik)withairborneunitsbasedinIvanovoandPskov
(western-centralRussia)(Mil.ruApril9,2015).
Overthelastdecade,theRussianleadershiphasbecomeobsessedwiththenotionthat
climatechangewillresultintheimminentmeltingofthepolaricecapintheArcticOcean.At
thispoint,thesepoliticiansargue,Russiawillbeabletotapawealthofheretoforeinaccessible
naturalresources,suchasoilandnaturalgasfromtheseabed.Inaddition,theroleofthe
NorthernSeaRoute(whichhugsRussiasArcticcoast)willincreasedramatically,providing
hugerevenuestoMoscowfromcargoshipsallowedtopassthroughthistransitcorridor
connectingEurope,AsiaandNorthAmerica.
However,climatechangeisunlikelytobringonlybenefitsforRussia.Inadditiontopolarice,
theArcticpermafrostwillalsomelt.Consequently,abeltofRussiasnortherncoastis
expectedtoturnintoaswampmanykilometersdeep,makingitimpossibletobuild
theinfrastructurenecessarytoservetheNorthernSeaRouteorthefacilitiesrequired
toextracttheregionsoilandgas.Moreover,theUnitedNationsConventionontheLaw
oftheSea(UNCLOS)prohibitspartiestotheagreementfromplacingrestrictionsonforeign
shipspassingalongtheNorthernSeaRoute.Thus,Russia(apartytoUNCLOS)isobligated
toprovidepassingforeignvesselswithcommunicationsaswellasmeteorological,
hydrologicalandrescueservicesatitsownexpense.ThismeansthatPresidentVladimir
Putinsdreamofcashinginontherouteiswishfulthinking.Evennow,hisplansclearlydiverge
fromreality.TransittrafficviatheNorthernSeaRoutehasdroppedcatastrophically:from
1.18milliontonsin2013,to39,000tonsin2015(Regnum,December8,2015).
Foralmost80yearsofthisroutesexistence,noonehadanyreasontoquestionitseconomic
viability.Militarybasesandprisoncampswerethemaindestinationanddeparturepoints
alongtheNorthernSeaRoute.Now,withtranscontinentalcargotraffichavingcollapsed,
Moscowsmainhopeisthatthisroutewillbeusedfortransportingoffshoreoil.However,all
majorWesternoilcompanieshavesofarrefusedtodeveloptheArcticshelf:itistoo
dangerousandexpensive.Furthermore,sectionsoftheNorthernSeaRouteareinaccessible
tolargerships.Vesselswithadraughtofover12meterscannotoperateinthevicinityofthe
NovosibirskIslands,forexample(Fni.no,November8,1999).
FutureprosperityintheArcticlookshighlydoubtful,buttheKremlinlivesaccordingtoa
differentlogic.ItbelievesthatthepossessionofevenhypotheticaltreasuresintheFarNorth
willinevitablyencourageothercountriestoforciblytakethemfromRussia.Therefore,the
Kremlinhasdemandedthatthedefenseministrystrengthenthebattlecapabilityinthe
region.
Inexecutingthisorder,theRussianmilitaryisboundtoredevelopoldColdWarstyle
scenarios,eventhoughnoneoftheotherArctic-regioncountrieshaveshownanysignof
militarizationinrecentyears.NearlyRussiasentiremilitarypotentialintheFarNorthis
currentlyconcentratedontheKolaPeninsulatheextremewestoftheRussianArctic.This
wasnoaccident,anditstemsfromtheArcticregionsroleasazoneofmilitaryconfrontation
betweentheSovietUnionandtheUnitedStatesthroughouttheColdWar.Itwasconvenient
todelivernuclearstrikesagainsttheenemyfromthedepthsoftheice-coveredocean.The
maintaskofallSovietArmedforcesintheArcticthenavalsurfacefleet,theairforceand
groundtroopswastoensurenuclearsubmarinecombatpatrolsandtheprotectionoftheir
basesontheKolaPeninsula.Nooneatthattimesuggestedtheneedtocontrolanddefend
thousandsofmilesoficedesert.SurfacevesselsoftheNorthernFleet,infact,cannotoperate
eastofNovayaZemlyabeyondthispointtheylackgroundsupportandairprotection.To
ensurewide-scalepatrols,itisnotenoughtorestoreSoviet-eraairfieldsandstationtherea
fewdozenjets.Thousandsoftonsoffuelwillalsoberequired.Deployingsmallgarrisonsin
theArcticmakesnomilitarysenseeither.Thus,Russiaisspendingmassiveresourcessimply
forShoigutobeabletoreporttoPutinthatthecountrysunobtainablenaturalwealthisbeing
protected.
--AleksandrGolts
PossibleNuclearPowerPlantAccidentinBelarusShedsLightonMinsksInternal
PoliticalProcess
TheBelarusianMinistryofEnergyconfirmed,onJuly26,thatanemergencysituation
occurredearlierthatmonthattheconstructionsiteoftheBelarusiannuclearpowerplant
(NPP)(Energobelarus.by,July27).Thepowerstationisbeingbuilt18kilometersfromthe
townofOstrovets(Grodnooblast),andsome50kmfromVilnius,Lithuania.Accordingto
theenergyministryspressrelease,thesituationtookplaceonJuly10,atthewarehouse
facility,whilethereactorwasbeingmovedhorizontally.
Thisconfirmationwasprecededand,infact,triggeredbyspeculationsofalocalresident,
NikolaiUlasevich.AmemberoftheoppositionUnitedCivicParty,Ulasevichisrunningfora
seatinparliament(theelectionisscheduledforSeptember11).OnJuly25,onhisFacebook
page,Ulasevichrelatedpersistentrumorsthata330-tonnuclearreactorfellfromaheightof
24metersduringaplannedrehearsalofitsinstallationonJuly10.Ulasevichclaimsthathe
receivedthisinformationfromatleasttenunrelatedpeople,whoshareditwithhimon
conditionofanonymityduringhiselectoralsignature-collectingcampaign.Thisposting
launchedafrenzyofactivitywithintheoppositionmedia.Lithuania,meanwhile,senta
diplomaticnotetotheBelarusianambassadorinVilnius,urgingthegovernmentinMinskto
carryoutacarefulandtransparentinvestigationoftheallegedaccident(Tut.by,July28).
OnJuly26,theRussianstate-ownedcompanyRosatom,theOstrovetsNPPprojectsprime
contractor,deniedanyallegeddamagetothereactorshell(SputnikNews,July26).
Reportedly,thereactorwillbeinstalledasscheduled,oncethesupervisorsissuetheir
permission.However,intheopinionofBelarusianopposition-mindedexperts,Russian
contractorsarepredisposedtodownplaythescaleofanaccident,anddroppingthereactor
fromaheightof24m,ifitindeedoccurred,maybeextremelydangerous.Lotsofevenmore
ominousrumorshavebeencirculatingintheBelarusianmediaalongsidethemoreestablished
facts.Itistrue,however,thattheallegedwhistleblower,Ulasevich,isnowleadingacivic
protestcampaign,OstrovetsStationIsaCrime(Naviny.by,July26).
AccordingtoValerKarbalevichofRadioLiberty,theBelarusianauthoritiesarebehavinglike
theirSovietcounterpartsinAprilMay1986,whennopublicinformationwasissuedabout
themeltdowninChernobylfortenwholedaysfollowingtheinitialexplosionattheplant.
AccordingtoKabalevichscolleague,VitalTsyhankou,PresidentAlyaksandrLukashenka
needstosaysomethingabouttheallegedaccident.Moreover,thiswouldbeanopportune
momentforhisintervention,asitwouldallowhimtoshowhishumansideandrestoreorder
(Svaboda.org,July27).TheBelarusianleaderhas,nevertheless,keptsilentashehas
throughoutBelarusstwo-monthconflictwithRussianGazpromoverthepriceofnaturalgas
purchasedfromRussia.
ConsideringLukashenkasputativebehind-the-scenesbehaviorduringthelatterconflict,Yury
DrakokrustofRadioLibertysharedhisunderstandingofLukashenkassimilaritywithUnited
StatespresidentialcandidateDonaldTrump,aseeminglypopularandtenaciousidea
broachedbyyetanotherBelarusianjournalist,VadimLivnev(Salidarnasts,July20).
Specifically,Drakokhrustdrawsaparallelbetweenthebargainingstylesofbothpoliticians.
Thus,inordertolowerpricesonRussiannaturalgas,Lukashenkajustbegantopayless,but
thenhehadtorepaytheaccumulateddebt(seeEDM,July29).Hismaneuver,however,was
notentirelyinvain,aspreviouslyloweringofthepricewasnotevendiscussed,whereastoday
MoscowhaspromisedapricedropinexchangeforBelarusfulfillingitsobligationstodeliver
refinedoiltotheRussianmarketandalsoinexchangeforeventuallysellingsomeBelarusian
industrialgiantstoRussianowners.Whiletheformerpromisewillhavetobeabidedby,itis
stillpossibleforMinsktoprocrastinateonthelatter.ThisisemblematicofLukashenkas
tacticsofwrestingsmallgains.Likewise,DonaldTrumpthreatenedthathemaynotdefendthe
USsalliesintheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)thatdonotfulfilltheirdefense
budgetobligations.Withindaysofthisthreat,EstoniasPresidentToomasIlvesstatedthathis
countrydoesindeedlivebythestandardNATOcommitmenttospendatleast2percentofits
GDPondefense.ThatimpliesthatotherNATOalliesmaysoonbeurgedtotoethelineand
fulfilltheirown2percentobligations.SoTrumpsthreatmightnotbeinvaineither,
Drakokhrustargues(Tut.by,July25).
Yet,LukashenkaisnotonlyusinghisspecificbargainingstyletobenefitBelaruseconomically
hehasalsopositionedhimselfastheguardianofhiscountrysindependence.Duringthe13th
WarsawEastEuropeanConference(July1821),amemberoftheBelarusianopposition,
DmitryBondarenko,askedformerGeorgianpresidentandcurrentgovernorofOdesa
MikheilSaakashviliwhyUkrainianandGeorgianauthoritiesmaintaingoodrelationswiththe
authoritarianregimeofLukashenka.ThereisnoalternativetoafreeBelarus,Saakashvili
responded.ButinorderforBelarustobefreeonehastoensurefirstthatBelarusis
retainedasastate(Tut.by,July21).TheBelarusianopposition,however,isnolonger
perceiveddomesticallyasapossiblesaviorofBelarusianindependence.EvenPavelUsov
perhapsthemostardentproponentofaboycottoftheupcomingparliamentaryelectionbythe
oppositionhadtoacknowledge:theWestisnoticeablydisappointedintheBelarusian
opposition(Naviny.by,July28).Thisbeingthecase,theBelarusianauthoritieshaveallowed
onlytokenparticipationoftheoppositionintheelectoralprocess.Outof303opposition
candidatestoserveasmembersofalmost6,000localelectoralcommissions(ECbodies
taskedwithactuallycountingthevotes),only53(17percent)madethecut.Consideringthat
theoverallratiowas90percent(65,857filledECseatsoutof73,278candidatesput
forward),theoppositionobtainedarawdealyetagain(Tut.by,July29).
SucharetheinformalrulesofthepoliticalgameinBelarusandarguablymostnon-Western
countries.Theserulesareeasyfortheauthoritiestoenforcewhenthepersonalprestigeofthe
membersoftheoppositionisnotparticularlyhigh.ButiftheOstrovetsNPPwhistleblower,
NikolaiUlasevich,managestowinaparliamentaryseatintheupcomingelection,itremainsto
beseenwhatthismaymeanforBelarusianpoliticsinthelongterm.Ifheloses,Ulasevichwill
onlyhavesucceededinusingtheelectoralcampaigntodisseminateinformationunflatteringfor
theauthorities.Andthisistheutmostthatmanymembersoftheoppositionacknowledgethey
themselvesareshootingfor.
--GrigoryIoffe
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Subject: AUGUST'!!][WD]R.ColvileQuestion:"IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfracturedage?"..LookingfortheanswerinA.
Dugin'swork...
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[WD]R.ColvileQuestion:"IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfracturedage?"..LookingfortheanswerinA.Dugin's
work...
Subject:[HOMEWORKINLATEJULY..AREUNUTS?JEEZ.MAYBETIMEFORIT...IFYOUDON'TWANTTHE
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Subject:IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosinourfracturedage?
IsVladimirPutinRussia'sgrandmasterofchaosin
ourfracturedage?
Putinhasengagedinanextraordinarycampaignofpromotingandsponsoringpoliticalparties
acrossEurope.
ByRobertColvile
July26,201617:27BST
360
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinandU.S.PresidentBarackObamaattheUnitedNationsheadquarters,
September28,2015,NewYorkGettyImages
ThehackingandleakingofembarrassingemailsfromwithintheDemocraticNationalCommittee(DNC)has
beenblamed,prettyconvincingly,onRussia.Ifso,thisshouldbeashockingmoment:anakedattemptbyVladimir
Putin'sregimetointerferewiththeelectoralprocessinanothercountry.
Itshouldbeshocking.Butitverymuchisn't.Notjustbecause,intheageofDonaldTrump,we'veallhadtodeal
witharelentlesserosionofourcapacityforoutrage.ButbecausePutin'sRussiathecountrythatshutdownahost
offoreign-fundedNGOsonthepretextthattheywereattemptingtomeddleinitsdomesticpoliticshasbeen
engagedinalong-standing,remarkablysuccessfulandcompletelyunsubtleattempttodoexactlythesamething.
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We'reallfamiliarwithitstrackrecordinitsownbackyard:theinvasionofGeorgia,theinstigationofacivilwarin
Ukraineandsubsequentillegalannexationofachunkofitsterritory.
ButPutin'stentaclesstretchfarmorewidely.Therearethemostvisiblesigns,ofcourse:themegaphonesofRussia
Today(theTVnewschannel)andSputnikNews(the"alternativenews"website).Thesepumpoutarelentlessstream
ofstoriesdesignedtomaketheWestlookbadandRussialookgood,aswellasofferingheftyappearancefeesto
sympatheticfigures:GeorgeGalloway,forexample,trousered1,600aweekfortwohours'presentingwork.
Butbeyondsuchvisibleefforts,Putinhasengagedinanextraordinarycampaignofpromotingandsponsoring
politicalpartiesacrossEurope.Earlierthisyear,theTelegraphreportedthatUSintelligenceisinvestigating
Russia'spoliticalactivitiesinFrance,theNetherlands,Hungary,AustriaandtheCzechRepublic.TheKremlinhas
builttieswithGoldenDawninGreece,loanedmillionstoMarineLePen'sFrontNationalviaRussianbanks,and
agreedenergydealsfromwhich,accordingtothethenAmericanambassadorinRome,SilvioBerlusconibenefited
"personallyandhandsomely".
Allthis,saysEdLucas,aseniorEconomisteditorandauthorofTheNewColdWar,ispartof"along-running
RussianattempttomanipulatebothinformationandopinionintheWest".UnlikeitsSovietpredecessor,Russia
doesn'twanttodestroytheWest,saysLucas:"WhattheywantisfortheWesttobemalleableandforthatto
happentheeliteshavetobediscreditedintheeyesofthevoters,andthecollectivesecurityarrangementsthatwe
havemustbeweakenedandbroken.That'sbecause,ifRussia'sdealingwithacountrybilaterally,it'salwaysinavery
strongposition140millionpeople,$1.4trnGDP,nuclearweapons,andsoon.Butit'snotatanadvantageifit's
dealingwiththeEU,ortheWest.Sotheywanttoplaydivideandrule."
AsUSVicePresidentJoeBidenwarnedlastyear,"PresidentPutinseessuchpoliticalforcesasusefultoolstobe
manipulated,tocreatecracksintheEuropeanbodypoliticwhichhecanthenexploit."Theremarkablething,
however,istheconstellationofallies,oratleastsympathisers,Putinhasacquiredintheprocess.
InBritain,forexample,youhaveSeumasMilne,JeremyCorbyn'shard-leftconsigliereand(inhispreviouslifeasa
Guardiancolumnist)theloudestpro-RussianvoiceonFleetStreet.Butyoualsohaveright-wingfigureslikeNigel
FarageandMailcolumnistPeterHitchens:theywouldconsiderMilneaTrotandatraitor,butstilladmirePutin's
ruthlessstreak.EvenNickGriffin,formerheadoftheBNP,poppedupinMoscowlastyearataconferenceof
fringeracistmovementstoproclaimPutinthesaviourofChristendomagainsttheinfidelhordes.
"Youseethisleft-rightallianceallovertheplace,"saysLucas."InFranceyou'vegottheFrontNationalandyou've
gottheCommunists.InItalyyou'vegottheLeft,becausethey'reanti-American,andtheRight,whosaytheywish
theirleaderslovedtheircountrythewayPutinloveshis.InGermany,you'vegotDieLinke,theoldCommunistsand
WestGermanLefties,andAlternativfurDeutschland,whoarethenewright-wingparty.
"Butwhat'sreallystrikingtomeisthatyoualsohavewhatIcallthegreedymiddlebusinessmen,orpeople
likePeterMandelson,orthebigGermancompanies.Thesegroupsallhateeachother,buttheyallbelieveweneed
toresetrelationswithRussia."
Asfarasusefulidiotsgo,however,byfarthemostusefulisDonaldTrump.Trumphasalongandignoblehistoryof
sayingverynicethingsaboutthisverynastyman."Intermsofleadership,he'sgettinganA,"heoncesaid.Whenit
wasputtohimthatPutinhadjournalistsandpoliticalopponentskilledandinvadedhisneighbours,hereplied:"At
leasthe'saleader."
AmuralonarestaurantwalldepictingDonaldTrumpandVladimirPutingreetingeachotherwithakissinthe
LithuaniancapitalVilniusonMay13,2016.GettyImages
ButtheTrump-Putintiesgodeeperthanmererhetoric.AsaprofileinSlatepointsout,Trump'sbusinessesdepend
heavilyonRussianinvestors.Hislistofforeignpolicyadvisersisessentiallyalistofkooksandgadfliesunited
solelybytheirsympathyfortheKremlin.Andhisnewcampaignmanager,PaulManafort,spentnearlysevenyears
workingonbehalfofVictorYanukovych,Putin'sstoogeintheUkraine,aswellasothershadypro-Kremlin
billionairesfromtheregion.EvenbeforeTrumpsentshiversdowneasternEuropeanspinesbyrepudiatingNato's
principleofcollectivedefence,hiscampaignhadaftershowingnointerestwhatsoeverintheminutiaeofitsown
policyplatformintervenedspecificallytowaterdownRepublicansupportofUkraine.
ThefascinatingquestionhereiswhetherallofthisthefactthattheWestismanifestlyalessstable,secureand
unitedplacethanithasbeenforyearsisdowntoluckorjudgement.Inotherwords,towhatextentisPutin
merelyprofitingfromthechaosofourfracturedage,andtowhatextenthasheactivelystokedit?
Ifyouwereofaconspiratorialcastofmind,youcouldcertainlybuildupatrailofbreadcrumbs.TakeBrexit,for
example.InadditiontoNigelFarage'sownadmirationforBigVlad,therewastheLeave.EUmovementfoundedby
insurancetycoonArronBanks.Banks'swifeisRussian,andhasindeedbeenaccusedofbeingaspy,thoughwithout
muchevidence.(Toshowherwhathethinksoftheidea,heboughtherthelicenceplate"XMI5SPY"asaChristmas
present.)ButMrsBanksdidgethelpstayinginthecountryfromMikeHancock,thedisgracedLibDemMPwho
hadafour-yearaffairwithasuspectedRussianspy,andbowedonlytoSeumasMilneinhisadmirationforPutin.
AndthentherewasthefactthatMilneandCorbyn,despitetheoreticallybeingontheRemainside,seemed
determinedtosabotagetheirowncampaign...
HavinginterviewedBanks,itseemedprettyclearhisinterventioninthereferendumwasentirelyoutofpersonal
conviction.LikewiseCorbyn'slong-standingantipathytotheEU,whichheseesasaneo-liberaltoolforattacking
workers'rights.ButI'vestillheardwhispersinWestminsterthatPutinmight'must!'haveplayedsomekindof
roleintheBrexitcampaign,notleastbecauseofhowperfectlyitsuitedhispurposes,andhowdelightedheandhis
cronieswereabouttheresult.TheproblemisthatwhenitcomestotheKremlin'sactivities,thereare,asLucasputs
it,onlyafew"outcropsofclearfact"surroundedbymuchguessingandspeculation.
Intheend,theideaofPutinaspuppetmastercanbealmostacomfort.ItreassuresusthattheWest'stroublesits
economicvicissitudes,itspoliticalpolarisationarenotourownfault,butarevisiteduponusbyaruthless,
fiendishenemy.Thetruthis,wegotourselvesintothis.**WhatPutinisdoing,bystokingextremismanddivision,
isensuringthatit'sthatmuchhardertogetout.
RobertColvileisawriterandcommentatoronpoliticsandtechnology,andtheauthorof'TheGreat
Acceleration:HowtheWorldisGettingFaster,Faster'(Bloomsbury)
[**EDPOSTSCRIPT:AftertakingabitofaganderatDugin'sramblingbutperversely
illuminating"FoundationsofGeopolitics",yourtrulyhonestlybelievesthattheleft-right
wing-nutcoalitionweareseeingeverywherethesedayshadlittletodowiththeWest's
(oftenegregious)mistakesandeverythingtodowithawellplanned&lengthyRUIntel
DEZINFORMoperationDugin'smacabre"optimalwitch'smixofcollectivehatredsbased
onclass,race/nationandreligion(i.e.--leninism+fascism+jihadism)"---meantto
challenge,ifproperlyfused,theJudeo-Christiandemocratic(smalld)constructuponwhich
theWestisbased---hasbeeninplaysincethemid1990s.][Pleaseturnyourattentiontothe
itemsthatfollow]
FIRSTNOTE:
DUGIN'SWEBSITE:http://arctogaia.com/public/eng/
FOUNDATION:http://www.eurasianistarchive.com/category/book-projects/foundations-of-
geopolitics/
THENNOTEBELOWTWOMASTERFULSTUDIESOF/COMMENTARIESONOL'SASHA
DUGIN.FROMOUROWNCIRCLE:
Stanford'sJohnD(2004)&AFPC'sIlanB(2005)
AleksandrDugin'sFoundationsofGeopoliticsDunlop,JohnB.
Demokratizatsiya12.1(Jan31,2004):41.
JohnB.DunlopisaseniorfellowattheHooverInstitution.Hiscurrentresearchfocusesonthe
conflictinChechnya,Russianpoliticssince1985,Russiaandthesuccessorstatesoftheformer
SovietUnion,Russiannationalism,andthepoliticsofreligioninRussia.
OneperceptiveobserveroftheRussianpoliticalscene,FrancoiseThom,notedasfarbackas1994
thatfascism,andespeciallyits"Eurasianist"variant,wasdisplacingRussiannationalismamong
statistRussianelitesasapost-communist"RussianIdea,"especiallyintheforeignpolicysphere.
"TheweaknessofRussiannationalists,"sheemphasized,"stemsfromtheirinabilitytoclearly
situateRussianfrontiers.Euras[ianism]bringsanideologicalfoundationforpost-Soviet
imperialism."1
ThereprobablyhasnotbeenanotherbookpublishedinRussiaduringthepost-communistperiod
thathasexertedaninfluenceonRussianmilitary,police,andstatistforeignpolicyelites
comparabletothatofAleksandrDugin's1997neo-fascisttreatise,FoundationsofGeopolitics.
2Theimpactofthisintended"Eurasianist"textbookonkeyelementsamongRussianelites
testifiestotheworrisomeriseoffascistideasandsentimentsduringthelateYeltsinandPutin
periods.
Theauthorofthissix-hundred-pageprogramfortheeventualruleofethnicRussiansoverthe
landsextending"fromDublintoVladisvostok,"AleksandrGel'evichDugin,wasbornin1962,the
son,grandson,andgreat-grandsonofRussianmilitaryofficers.3Hisfatherissaidtohaveheld
therankofcolonel,and,accordingtoonesource,heservedinSovietmilitaryintelligence,inthe
GRU.4Byallaccounts,Duginwasabrightandprecociousyouthwithatalentforlearningforeign
languages.(Heissaidtohavemasteredatleastnineofthem.)Whilestillateenager,hejoineda
secretivegroupofMoscowintellectualsinterestedinmysticism,paganism,andfascism.Boththe
"masters"ofthisgroupandtheir"disciples"engaged,interalia,intranslatingtheworksofforeign
writerswhosharedtheirinterests.Asoneofhiscontributions,Dugincompletedatranslationofa
bookbytheItalianpagan-fascistphilosopherJuliusEvola.
DuginisreportedtohavebeendetainedbytheKGBforparticipatinginthisstudygroup,and
forbiddenliteraturewassubsequentlydiscoveredathisapartment.Accordingtooneaccount,he
thenwasexpelledfromtheMoscowAviationInstitute,wherehehadenrolledasastudentsome
timeinthelate1970s.Accordingtoanotheraccount,heeventuallymanagedtograduatefromthe
institute.5
In1987,duringGorbachev'ssecondyearofrule,Duginwasinhismid-twentiesandemergedasa
leaderofthenotoriousanti-SemiticRussiannationalistorganization,Pamyat',headedby
photographerDmitriiVasil'ev.Duringlate1988and1989,Duginservedasamemberofthe
Pamyat'CentralCouncil.
In1989,takingadvantageofincreasedopportunitiestovisittheWest,Duginspentmostofthe
yeartravelingtoWesternEuropeancountries.Whilethere,hestrengthenedtieswithleading
figuresoftheEuropeanNewRight,suchasFrenchmanAlaindeBenoistandBelgianJean-Francois
Thiriart.ThesecontactsledtoDugin's"belatedreconciliation"withtheUSSR,justasthatstatewas
approachingitsfinaldemise.Itappearsthat,largelyasaresultofthesecontactswiththe
EuropeanNouvelleDroite,Duginbecameafascisttheorist.OnthesubjectofDugin'sindubitable
fascistorientation,Stephen
Shenfieldhaswritten:"CrucialtoDugin'spoliticsistheclassicalconceptofthe'conservative
revolution'thatoverturnsthepost-Enlightenmentworldandinstallsaneworderinwhichthe
heroicvaluesofthealmostforgotten'Tradition'arerenewed.ItisthisconceptthatidentifiesDugin
unequivocallyasafascist."6
Bythebeginningofthe1990s,astheSovietUnionwasapproachingitscollapse,Duginbeganto
assumeamorehigh-profilepoliticalrole.Heformedanassociationwith"statistpatriots"inthe
communistcampandwas,forabriefperiod,closetotheGenadiiZyuganov,theleaderofthe
CommunistPartyoftheRussianFederation.AccordingtoStephenShenfield,Dugin"probably
playedasignificantpartinformulatingthenationalistcommunistideologythatwasZyuganov's
hallmark."7
In1991,theyearthatwitnessedtheendoftheUSSR,Duginmadetheacquaintanceofan
importantneo-fascistwriterwithtiestoelementsintheRussianmilitary,AleksandrProkhanov,
whosejournalDen'(subsequentlyrenamedZavtra),servedasakeysounding-boardforthe"red-
brownopposition."8Duginsoonemergedas"oneoftheleadingideologistsofDen'initsbest
period(1991-1992)."9
InJuly1992,Duginalsobegantoedithisownjournal,Elementy:evraziiskoeobozrenie,which
appearedtwiceyearly(lateronceayear)inaprintrunof5,000-10,000.Thejournal'stitlewas
borrowedfromthetheoreticaljournaloftheFrenchNewRight,Elements,editedbyAlainde
Benoist.ConcerningDugin'sjournal,AleksandrVerkhovskiiandVladimirPribylovskiihavenoted:
"InspeakingofElementy,oneshouldnotforgetthathalfofeachissueiscomprisedof
'geopoliticalnotebooks'containingarticlesabouttheglobaloppositionofvariouscivilizations,
primarilyRussiaandtheWest."10
Duringtheearly1990s,Duginfoundedhisownpublishinghouse,"Arktogeya."Thisnamewas
borrowedfromthepublishinghouseofGermanracistwriterGuidovonList(1848-1918).It
combinestheancientGreekwordsarktos(north)andgeaorgaia(land),areferencetothe
vanishedpolarcontinentthatwassupposedlytheoriginalhomeoftheAryans.11
In1991-1992,ProkhanovandDuginattemptedtoformanalliancebetweencertainleadersofthe
EuropeanNewRightandseveraldepartmentheadsandprofessorsattheAcademyoftheGeneral
StaffoftheRussianArmedForces.ThefirstissueofElementyin1992publishedthetranscriptof
anApril1992roundtable,heldonthepremisesoftheacademy,whichincludedLieutenantGeneral
NikolaiKlokotov,headoftheacademy'sstrategydepartmentLieutenantGeneralNikolaiPishchev,
deputyheadofthesamedepartmentMajorGeneralVladislavIminov,headoftheacademy's
departmentofmilitaryhistoryAlaindeBenoist,"theleaderoftheEuropeanNewRight"andJean
Lalou,anotherNewRightspokesman.12
ThecommanderoftheGeneralStaffAcademy,GeneralIgor'Rodionov,wasreportedtobe
"particularlywell-disposedtowardDugin,"andDugin'sideasevidentlycontinuedtoenjoyhis
supportoncehebecameRussianDefenseMinisterin1996-1997.13Itmaybesignificantthat
Dugin'sFoundationsofGeopoliticswaswrittenduringthetimethatRodionovwasservingas
defenseminister.14
TheGeneralStaffAcademyandGRU'sinterestingeopoliticsandEurasianismreachedbacksome
fortyyears."Beginninginthe1950s,"FrancoiseThornremarked,"SovietstrategistslikeGeneral
ShtemenkoandAdmiralGorshkovwereinspiredbyEurasianistthinking."15AsforDugin,he
singled
outMarshalNikolaiOgarkov,aSovietmilitarychiefofstaffintheearly1980s,as"anoutstanding
geopolitician,strategist,andEurasian."16
In1993,DuginjoinedhiseffortswiththoseofcharismaticdemagogueEduardLimonov(born
1943)andfoundedtheNationalBolshevikParty(NBP).AsVerk-hovskiiandPribylovskiihave
pointedout,"TheideologyoftheNationalBolshevikPartywasfullygeneratedbyoneman--
AleksandrDugin."17Limonovplayedtheroleofafascist-styleleader,andDuginservedassecond
incommandandtheparty'schieftheoretician.Theneworganizationappearstohavebeenmore
influencedbyGermanthanbyRussiannationalBolshevism.TheGermanNationalBolshevikErnst
Niekischhad"advocatedaGerman-RussianallianceagainsttheWest.IntheSovietUnion,
especiallyStalin'sSovietUnion,manyGermannationalists[likeNiekisch]sawthelogicalfulfillment
ofthewaragainst'Jewishcapitalism.'"18In1995,DuginranfortheRussianStateDumaona
NationalBolshevikplatformbutwasresoundinglyrejectedbyvoters,receivingamere0.85percent
ofthevote.19
In1997,DuginbrokewiththestormyLimonovandbegananoteworthypoliticalascent.Inthat
sameyear,hepublishedhisFoundationsofGeopolitics,oneofthemoreinfluentialworksofthe
post-communistperiod.ItappearstohavebeenwrittenwiththeassistanceofGeneralNikolai
KlokotovoftheGeneralStaffAcademy,whoservedasanofficialconsultanttotheproject.Colonel
GeneralLeonidIvashov,headoftheInternationalDepartmentoftheRussianMinistryofDefense,
alsomayhaveservedasanadviser.20Perhapsdueinparttosuchhigh-levelinput,"Dugin's
geopoliticalideas[asexpressedinFoundations]areclearlymuchmoreinfluentialthanarethe
othermoreopenlymysticalandesotericsidesofhisphilosophy."21
Duringthefollowingyear,Dugin'scareertookakeystepforwardwhenhewasnamedanadviser
ongeopoliticstoGennadiiSeleznev.Seleznevwaschairman(or"speaker")oftheRussianState
DumaandamajorplayerinRussianpolitics.(InJune2001,Seleznevwasrankedthetenthmost
influentialpoliticalfigureinRussiabyNezavisimayagazeta'spanelofexperts.22)Inthecourseof
aMarch1999radiointerview,SeleznevmadepublicthefactthatDuginwasservingasoneofhis
advisersand"heurgedthatDugin'sgeopoliticaldoctrinebemadeacompulsorypartoftheschool
curriculum."23Twoyearslater,atthefoundingcongressofthehew"Eurasia"movement,Dugin
boasted,"IamtheauthorofthebookFoundationofGeopolitics,whichhasbeenadoptedasa
textbookinmany[Russian]educationalinstitutions."Duringthesamecongress,the
aforementionedGeneralKlokotov--nowaprofessoremeritusbutonewhocontinuedtoteachat
theacademy--notedthatthetheoryofgeopoliticshadbeentaughtasasubjectattheGeneral
StaffAcademysincetheearly1990sandthatinthefutureitwould"serveasamightyideological
foundationforpreparinganew[military]command."24AtpresentDugin'sbookpresumablyis
beingusedasatextbookattheGeneralStaffAcademy.
In1999,Dugin'spublishinghousebroughtoutavolumeofwritingsbytheinterwaremigre
Eurasianwriter,PrinceNikolaiTrubetskoi.Inhisintroductiontothevolume,Duginwrotethat
Trubetskoi"canbetermedtheEurasianMarx."25ItseemedthatDuginsawasimilarexaltedrole
forhimselfastheformulatorofanew"RussianIdea"atthedawnofanewmillennium.
Sometimeinlate1999,Duginfounded"TheCenterforGeopoliticalExpertise"inMoscow.Inan
articleinZavtra,hespeculatedthatthisnewcentermightshortlybecome"ananalyticalinstrument
oftheEurasianPlatformfor,simultaneously,thePresidentialAdministration,theGovernmentofthe
RussianFederation,theCouncilofFederation,andtheStateDuma."26InlateMarchof2000,ina
secondZavtraarticle,DuginenvisionedanewrolefortheRussiansecretpolice(whichuntil
recentlyhadbeen
headedbythenewlyelectedRussianpresident,VladimirPutin).Whereasinhis1993book,
Konspiralogiya,Duginhadcriticizedthesecretpoliceforperceived"Atlanticist,"thatis,pro-
Americanandpro-Britishsympathies,henowtoastedtheKGB(theinitialshepreferredtoFSB)as
"anewcaste,anewsocialstratum"calleduponbothtoholdthelineagainst"American
hegemony"andto"recreateamightyEurasiansovereignstate"whichwouldincludealloftheCIS
republics.27
InAugust2000,afterreadinganarticleby"oneofthechiefideologistsofthe[Putin]Kremlin,"
GlebPavlovskii,DuginwrotePavlovskiisuggestingameeting.Pavlovskii,thecreatorofseveral
influentialpro-KremlinWebsites,agreed.Commentingonthisburgeoningrelationship,journalist
AndreiKolesnikovremarked:"Extremerightideologyisnotonlyturningintothedominantviewin
Russianpublicationsandstaterhetoric,itisalsobecomingfashionableinasalonsense."28
InNovember2000,shortlybeforeundertakingatriptoBrunei,PresidentPutindeclaredpublicly,
"RussiahasalwaysperceivedofitselfasaEurasiancountry."29Duginlatertermedthisstatement
"anepochal,grandioserevolutionaryadmission,which,ingeneral,changeseverything.The
prophecyof[Frenchconspiratologist]JeanParvulescohascometopass....Therewillbea
Eurasianmillennium."30
OnApril21,2001,Duginachievednewheightswiththefoundingcongressofthe"Pan-Russian
PoliticalSocialMovement'Eurasia.'"Holdingthiscongressunderscoredthecloserelationsthat
DuginhadformedwithpresentandespeciallyformermembersoftheRussianspecialservices.The
congresstookplaceinahallbelongingtothe"HonorandDignity"Club,agroupofveteransofthe
specialservicesandlawenforcementorganizations.Theheadoftheclub,VladimirRevskii,earlier
hadservedinVympel,aspecialoperationsunitattachedtotheFirstChiefDirectorateoftheKGB
(andlatertheSVR).Revskiiofficiallyopenedthecongressandlaterwaselectedtomembershipin
"Eurasia's"rulingbody,thePoliticalCouncil.
PetrSuslov,alsoaformerVympelmemberandaretiredcolonelintheSVRY,playedanevenmore
noteworthyroleatthecongress.Suslovservedasheadofthecommitteethatorganizedthe
congressandthenwaselecteddeputyleaderofthenewmovement(withDuginchosenasthe
leader).31DuringaJuly2001interview,SuslovconfidedthathewasagraduateoftheRyazan'
ParatroopSchoolwhohadthen"servedinthestructuresoftheKGB...inaunitwhichconducted
specialoperationsabroad."32Inthiscapacity,hesaid,hehadservedinAfghanistan,
Mozambique,Angola,Nicaragua,andVietnam.RetiringfromtheSVRin1995,hehadbecomea
consultantonissuesrelatingtotheCaucasusforDumaspeakerSeleznev,whichhadprovidedhim
withanopportunitytomeetDugin,whowasadvisingSeleznevongeopoliticalquestions.Thetwo
soonrealizedthattheyagreedonmanykeyissues.
WritingfortheGlebPavlovskii-sponsoredwebsite,SMI.ru,journalistGrigoriiOsterman
commented:"[Petr]SuslovhimselfenjoysbroadconnectionswithintheleadershipoftheFSB
(thereexistsinformationthatheisanexternalemployeeofthecentralapparatusoftheFSB),as
wellasinthePresidentialAdministration,bodiestowhichtheleaderof'Eurasia,'Dugin,alsohas
entree."33"Duginisalreadybeingperceived,"theweeklyObshchayagazetaobserved,"notasthe
preacherofanideologicalsectbutasanofficiallyrecognizedspecialistongeopoliticalquestions."
34
Inasimilarvein,theinvestigativeweeklyVersiyaobservedinlateMay2001:"Contactsbetween
Pavlovskiiand'Eurasia'actuallydooccur,butmostlikelyonthelevelofpersonalconsultations.
AleksandrDuginandtheheadofKremlinpolitico-technologyenjoygood,friendlyrelations."Under
VladimirPutin,thenewspapercontinued,Duginhadbecome"oneofthedraftersoftheconceptof
nationalsecurity."ItwasnotedthatDmitriiRyurikov,aleadingadvisertoPresidentYeltsinon
foreignaffairs,andcurrentlytheRussianambassadortoUzbekistan,hadagreedtobecomea
memberof"Eurasia's"CentralCouncil.Dugin'sneworganization,Versiyawenton,alsowas
engagedin"thepreparingofanalyticalreportsonforeignaffairsforthePresidential
Administration."Asforthefinancialsupportof"Eurasia,"thenewspaperwrote:"Thefinancial
supportofthemovementcomesthroughregionalorganizationsofthespecialservices.Andthis
support,accordingtooursources,isnotsmall.Moreover,notonlyfinancesareprovidedbutalso
'necessary'connections."35
Inhisaddresstothefoundingcongressof"Eurasia,"Duginexpressedhisgratitudeto"the
AdministrationofthePresidentoftheRussianFederation,"foritsassistance,beforealsothanking
theMoscowPatriarchate,theCentralSpiritualAdministrationfortheMuslimsofRussia,andother
organizations.36OnMay31,2001,theRussianMinistryofJusticeofficiallyregisteredthe
"Eurasia"movement,whichwasreportedtohavebranchesinfiftyregionsofRussia.37Inlate
June2001,"Eurasia"hostedanambitiousconference,provocativelytitled"IslamicThreatora
ThreattoIslam?"heldatthePresidentialHotelinMoscow.Thetitularco-chairmenofthe
conferencewereSeleznev(whodidnotattend)andSheikhTalgatTadzhuddin,theofficially
recognizedheadoftheMuslimsofRussiaandtheCISstates.38
Bysummer2001,AleksandrDugin,aneo-fascistideologue,hadmanagedtoapproachthecenter
ofpowerinMoscow,havingformedclosetieswithelementsinthepresidentialadministration,the
secretservices,theRussianmilitary,andtheleadershipofthestateDuma.Inaninterviewwiththe
KrasnoyarskdivisionofEkhoMoskvyRadioonJuly25,2001,Dugin,commentingonPutin'srole
attherecentG-8meetingsinGenoa,affirmed,"Itismyimpressionthatintheinternationalsphere
PutinissplendidlyrealizingtheEurasianpoliticalmodel."39FollowingtheSeptember11,2001
terroristincidentsinNewYorkCityandWashington,D.C.,Dugin'sopinionwassolicitedbyamajor
Russiannewspaper,alongwiththeviewsofthesecretaryoftheRussianSecurityCouncil,the
speakeroftheFederationCouncil,andvariousDumafactionleaders,whichtestifiestothe
perceivedinfluencethatDuginwieldsinpresent-dayRussia.40
SeveralRussianjournalistshaveunderscoredthatDugin-style"Eurasianism"meetsanumberof
politicalneedsinRussia.Abeliefintheprimacyoftherightsoftheindividualoverthoseofthe
state,journalistEvgeniiIkhlovwrote,wouldresultinthecontrolofcivilsocietyoverthestate.In
Russia,bycontrast,Ikhlovcontinued:
[O]urnewchiefstratumareincapableofrulingundersuchademocracy....[T]heystandinneedof
anattractivefoundationforanother,non-democraticmodel.HereEurasianismextraordinarilyfits
thebill.Itoffersthefollowing:anauthoritarian-charismatic(autocratic)modelselflessand
asceticalservingoftheregimeasthehighestformofvalor(themessianicgreatpowersyndrome)
theagreementofethnicandreligiousminoritiestoplayasubordinateroleandimperial
xenophobia.41
"WhatinducestheregimetoseekanewideologyinEurasianism?"journalistDmitriiRadyshevskii,
asked.Heanswered:"Here[inDugin-styleEurasianism]thereareideaswhichmeetthe
psychologicalneedsofsociety:thereisanalternativetothefailedloveaffairwiththeWestthere
isthe[Russian]traditionofmessianismandthereistheproximityofAsia....Theregimestandsin
needofanewideology,butofatraditionalone,'integralandgreat.'Allofthisishappilycombined
inEurasianism."42
TheGeopoliticsofDugin's1997Book
Dugin'smilitantviewsongeopolitics,asexpressedinhis1997"textbook,"presumablywillstrike
Westernreadersasbothcrudeandmad,representingaslightimprovementovertheravingsof
DumadeputyspeakerVladimirZhirinovskii.AlthoughDugin'sideasandprescriptionsareindeed
extreme,dangerous,andrepellent,itshouldbeemphasizedthattheyareverymuchinthe
traditionofthewritingsofinterwarfascistsandadherentsoftheEuropeanNouvelleDroite.
Historicallyspeaking,fascistthoughtmorethanoncehasresultedinexplosiveexpansionism.It
shouldbenotedthatDugindoesnotfocusprimarilyonmilitarymeansasawayofachieving
RussiandominanceoverEurasiarather,headvocatesafairlysophisticatedprogramofsubversion,
destabilization,anddisinformationspearheadedbytheRussianspecialservices,supportedbya
tough,hard-headeduseofRussia'sgas,oil,andnaturalresourcerichestopressureandbullyother
countriesintobendingtoRussia'swill.Duginapparentlydoesnotfearwarintheleast,buthe
wouldprefertoachievehisgeopoliticalgoalswithoutresortingtoit.
Drawingontheextensivetwentieth-centuryliteratureongeopolitics--andespeciallyontheinterwar
GermanschoolofKarlHaushofer--Duginpositsaprimordial,dualisticconflictbetween
"Atlanticism"(seafaringstatesandcivilizations,suchastheUnitedStatesandBritain)and
"Eurasianism"(land-basedstatesandcivilizations,suchasEurasia-Russia).43AsWayne
Allensworthnoted,onceonepenetratesbelowthesurfaceofDugin'sseeminglyrationaland
scholarlylanguageinFoundationsofGeopolitics,onerealizesthat"Dugin'sgeopoliticsaremystical
andoccultinnature,theshapeofworldcivilizationsandtheclashingvectorsofhistorical
developmentbeingportrayedasshapedbyunseenspiritualforcesbeyondman'scomprehension."
44InDugin'streatise,asAllensworthunderscores,theauthorhasappropriatedalmostwholesale
"theidea"ofBelgiangeopoliticianJeanThiriart,who"recognizedtheRussifiedSovietUnionasthe
finalbastionofcivilizationinaEuropeoverrunbyrootlessAmericanconsumerism."Thiriartearlier
hadadvocatedtheformationofanew"HolyAlliance"oftheUSSRandEuropeaimedat
constructinga"Euro-SovietEmpire,"whichwouldstretchfromVladivostoktoDublinandwould
alsoneedtoexpandtothesouth,"sinceitrequiredaportontheIndianOcean."45
TheGorbachevDebacle
TheGorbachevyears(1985-1991)represent,inDugin'seyes,oneofthemostwrenching
geopoliticaldefeatsinthemillennialhistoryofRussia-Eurasia-USSR.Beginningin1989,itbecame
clearthat"no-oneintheSovietleadershipwascapableofexplainingthelogicoftraditional
[Soviet]foreignpolicyand,asaresult,theretookplacethelightning-fastdestructionofthe
giganticEurasianorganism..."(95).46Unexpectedly,theUSSR"founditselfinalmostthesame
situationaspostwarGermany--itsworldinfluencereducedtonothing,itsterritorysharply
diminished,itseconomyandsocialspherereducedtoruins"(96).
DugincontendsthattheSovietdisasterof1989-1991,liketheearlierGermanone,resultedfroma
failureofthecountry'sleaderstoheedthecounselofitsgeopoliticians.Hitlerdisregardedthe
adviceofKarlHaushoferandotherspecialistswhenhedecidedtoinvadetheSovietUnionin
1941.Insimilarfashion,a"certainsecretdepartmentoftheGRU"andothervoiceshadbeen
advocatinga"Eurasian"coursefortheUSSR,buttheiradvicewentunheeded(103).
AsDuginseesit,the"project"thatWesternizingRussianreformersattemptedtoimplementduring
theGorbachevandYeltsinyearsbynowhasbeendiscreditedfully:"Thisprojectdeniessuch
valuesas
thepeople,thenation,history,geopoliticalinterests,socialjustice,thereligiousfactor,etc.Init,
everythingisconstructedontheprincipleofmaximaleconomiceffectiveness,ontheprimacyof
theindividual,onconsumerism,andthe'freemarket'"(179).
DuginbelievestheAtlanticists(especiallytheUnitedStates)consciouslyplottedthedownfallofthe
WarsawPactandtheUSSR."TheHeartlandthereforeisrequiredtopaybackSeaPowerinthe
samecoin"(367).Thegoal,asDuginseesit,istoresuscitateandreinvigorateEurasia/Russiaafter
thenear-fatalgeopoliticalblowsitabsorbedfrom1989to1991.
DuginemphasizesthatthecurrentRussianFederation,whichappearedin1991fromunderthe
rubbleoftheUSSR,isnotafull-fledgedstate,butrather"atransitionalformationinthebroadand
dynamicglobalgeopoliticalprocess"(183).Thenewstatesthathavecomeintoexistenceinthe
spaceoftheformerSovietUnionalsodonot,withthesoleexceptionofArmenia,possessany
markingsofauthenticstatehood(187).Insteadtheyrepresentartificial,ephemeralpolitical
constructs.
TheethnicRussianpeople,incontrast,areseenas"thebearersofauniquecivilization."47
Russiansareamessianicpeople,possessing"universal,pan-humansignificance"(189).The
Russianpeople,Dugininsists,canserveonlyasthecoreethnosofavastempire:"[T]heRussian
people(i.e.Russia)nevermadeitsgoalthecreationofamono-ethnic,raciallyuniformstate"
(190).Suchadistortedviewrepresents"theAtlanticistlinemaskingitselfas'Russiannationalism'"
(213).
"Arepudiationoftheempire-buildingfunction,"Duginwarnssternly,"wouldsignifytheendofthe
Russianpeopleasahistoricalreality,asacivilizationalphenomenon.Sucharepudiationwouldbe
tantamounttonationalsuicide"(197).Deprivedofanempire,Russianswill"disappearasanation"
(251).Thesoleviablecourse,inDugin'sview,isforRussianstoreboundfromthedebacleof
1989-1991byrecreatingagreat"supra-nationalempire,"oneinwhichethnicRussianswould
occupy"aprivilegedposition"(251-252).Theresultofsucharebuildingeffortwouldbe"agiant
continentalstateintheadministrationofwhichthey[Russians]willplaythecentralrole"(253).
Thisethnicmodel,Duginnotes,isquitesimilartothatoftheformerSovietUnion.
InordertofacilitatetherecreationofavastRussian-dominatedcontinentalempire,Dugin
advocatestheunleashingofRussiannationalistsentiment,butofaspecifictype."This[Russian]
nationalism,"hewrites,"shouldnotemploystatebut,rather,cultural-ethnicterminology,witha
specialemphasisonsuchcategoriesas'Narodnost"and'RussianOrthodoxy'"(255).Religious
sentiment,Duginurges,shouldbeplacedfrontandcenter:"Russiansshouldrealizethattheyare
Orthodoxinthefirstplace[ethnic]Russiansinthesecondplaceandonlyinthethirdplace,
people"(255).Thereisaneed,Dugininsists,forthe"totalchurchification"ofRussians,forthe
Russiannationtobecomeviewedsimplyas"theChurch"(255-256).Suchanemphasis,he
believes,should--togetherwithapersistentfocusonthegloriouspastandbrightfutureofthe
Russiannation--helpbringaboutthe"demographicupsurge"sodesperatelyneededbyRussians
today.Economicincentivesbythemselveswillproveinsufficienttopromotesuchanupsurge(256-
257).One"radical"slogan,Duginconcludes,mustbeconsistentlyputforward:"Thenationis
everythingtheindividualisnothing"(257).ThissloganencapsulatesoneofDugin'smost
cherishedbeliefs.
GuttingAtlanticism
Employingthe"strategyoftheAnaconda"(atermborrowedbyDuginfrominter-warGerman
geopoliticiansusedinreferencetoBritain),theUnitedStatesanditsclosealliesareseenas
exerting
unrelentingpressureonallEurasiancoastalzones(103,110).Followingpreceptsenunciatedby
FrancisFukuyamaamongothers,theUnitedStatesseekstoimplantitsownpoliticalandeconomic
modelthroughouttheglobe(127).Moreover,followingtheprescriptionsofPaulWolfowitz,the
UnitedStatesattemptstoreduceRussia'sroletothatofalowly"regionalpower"(199).Incynical
fashion,theUnitedStateswantsto"transformRussiaintoan'ethnicreservation'sothatitcan
receivefullcontrolovertheworld"(169).
HowisarevivedEurasian--Russianempiretobringabout"thegeopoliticaldefeatoftheU.S."
(260)?AnappropriateresponsetotheloomingAtlanticistthreat,Dugincontends,isforthe
renascentEurasian-Russianempiretodirectallofitspowers(shortofignitingahotwar),aswell
asthoseoftheremainderofhumanity,againsttheAtlanticistAnaconda."Atthebasisofthe
geopoliticalconstructionofthis[Eurasian]Empire,"Duginwrites,"theremustbeplacedone
fundamentalprinciple--theprincipleof'acommonenemy.'AnegationofAtlanticism,arepudiation
ofthestrategiccontroloftheUnitedStates,andtherejectionofthesupremacyofeconomic,
liberalmarketvalues--thisrepresentsthecommoncivilizationalbasis,thecommonimpulsewhich
willpreparethewayforastrongpoliticalandstrategicunion"(216).Theanti-Americanismofthe
Japanese,"whorememberwellthenucleargenocideandthedisgraceofpoliticaloccupation,"must
beunleashed,aswellastheferventanti-AmericanismoffundamentalistMuslimIranians(234,
241).Onaglobalscale,Dugindeclares,"themain'scapegoat'willbepreciselytheU.S."(248).
OnewayinwhichRussiawillbeabletoturnotherstatesagainstAtlanticismwillbeanastuteuse
ofthecountry'srawmaterialriches."Inthebeginningstage[ofthestruggleagainstAtlanticism],"
Duginwrites,"RussiacanofferitspotentialpartnersintheEastandWestitsresourcesas
compensationforexacerbatingtheirrelationswiththeU.S."(276).ToinducetheAnacondato
releaseitsgriponthecoastlineofEurasia,itmustbeattackedrelentlesslyonitshometerritory,
withinitsownhemisphere,andthroughoutEurasia."Alllevelsofgeopoliticalpressure,"Dugin
insists,"mustbeactivatedsimultaneously"(367).
WithintheUnitedStatesitself,thereisaneedfortheRussianspecialservicesandtheirallies"to
provokeallformsofinstabilityandseparatismwithinthebordersoftheUnitedStates(itis
possibletomakeuseofthepoliticalforcesofAfro-Americanracists)"(248)."Itisespecially
important,"Duginadds,"tointroducegeopoliticaldisorderintointernalAmericanactivity,
encouragingallkindsofseparatismandethnic,socialandracialconflicts,activelysupportingall
dissidentmovements--extremist,racist,andsectariangroups,thusdestabilizinginternalpolitical
processesintheU.S.Itwouldalsomakesensesimultaneouslytosupportisolationisttendenciesin
Americanpolitics"(367).
Dugin'sEurasianprojectalsomandatesattackingtheUnitedStatesthroughCentralandSouth
America."TheEurasianproject,"Duginwrites,"proposesEurasianexpansionintoSouthand
CentralAmericawiththegoaloffreeingthemfromthecontroloftheNorth"(248).48Asaresult
ofsuchunrelentingdestabilizationefforts,theUnitedStatesanditscloseallyBritaineventuallywill
beforcedtoleavetheshoresofEurasia(andAfrica)."TheentiregiganticedificeofAtlanticism,"
Duginprophesies,"willcollapse"(259).Hebelievesthatthiscouldhappenunexpectedly,as
occurredwiththesuddencollapseoftheWarsawPactandtheUSSR.Expelledfromtheshoresof
Eurasia,theUnitedStateswouldthenberequiredto"limititsinfluencetotheAmericas"(367).
TheMoscow-BerlinAxis
WithintheterritorialsprawlofEurasia,Dugin'sprogramfocusesontheformationofthreekey
axes:Moscow-Berlin,Moscow-Tokyo,andMoscow-Teheran.WithregardtothefutureofEurope,
Duginwrites:"ThetaskofMoscowistotearEuropeawayfromthecontroloftheU.S.(NATO),to
assistEuropeanunification,andtostrengthentieswithCentralEuropeundertheaegisofthe
fundamentalexternalaxisMoscow-Berlin.Eurasianeedsaunited,friendlyEurope"(369).In
advocatingthispath,DuginappearstobeinfluencedbythewritingsoftheEuropeanNewRight,
whichfromthe1970son,arguedfor"thestrictneutralityofEuropeanditsdeparturefromNATO"
(139).ThebasisoftheMoscow-Berlinaxis,Duginwrites,willbe"theprincipleofacommon
enemy[thatis,theUnitedStates]"(216).
InexchangeforcooperatingwithRussiainthisproject,DuginproposesthatGermanybegiven
back"Kaliningradoblast'(EasternPrussia)"(228).AsaresultofaGrandAlliancebetweenRussia
andGermany,thetwocountrieswilldivvyuptheterritorieslyingbetweenthemintodefacto
spheresofdominance.Thereistobeno"sanitarycordon.""ThetaskofEurasia,"Dugin
emphasizes,"consistsinmakingsuresucha[sanitary]cordondoesnotexist"(370).Russiaand
Germanytogether,heinsists,"mustdecidealldisputedquestionstogetherandinadvance"(226).
TheintegrationofswathsofWesternandCentralEuropeanterritoryintoaGermansphereof
dominancewillbeencourageddirectlyandabettedbyEurasia-Russia.Theformationofa"Franco-
Germanbloc"especiallyistobesupported(171)."InGermanyandFrance,'"Duginasserts,"there
isafirmanti-Atlanticisttradition"(369).Germany'sinfluencelikelywillspreadtothesouth--to
ItalyandSpain(220).OnlyBritain,"anextraterritorialfloatingbaseoftheU.S."istobecutoff
andshunned(221).
Movingeastward,DuginproposesofferingGermanydefactopoliticaldominanceovermost
ProtestantandCatholicstateslocatedwithinCentralandEasternEurope.The"unstable"stateof
Finland,which"historicallyentersintothegeopoliticalspaceofRussia"isseenasanexception
(316).Inthisinstance,DuginproposesthatFinlandbecombinedtogetherwiththeKarelian
AutonomousRepublicoftheRussianFederationintoasingleethnoterritorialformation"with
maximalculturalautonomy,butwithstrategicintegrationintotheEurasianbloc"(371-372).The
northernregionsofFinland,Duginadds,shouldbeexcisedanddonatedtoMurmanskoblast'.
OnthesubjectoftheBalticstates,DuginproposesthatEstoniaberecognizedaslyingwithin
Germany'ssphere.A"specialstatus,"ontheotherhand,shouldbeaccordedtobothLatviaand
Lithuania,whichsuggeststhattheyaretobeallocatedtotheEurasian-Russiansphere.Poland,
too,istobegrantedsucha"specialstatus"(372).
WithregardtotheBalkans,Duginassigns"thenorthoftheBalkanpeninsulafromSerbiato
Bulgaria"towhathetermsthe"RussianSouth"(343)."SerbiaisRussia,"asubheadinginthebook
declaresunambiguously(462).InDugin'sopinion,allofthestatesofthe"Orthodoxcollectivist
East"withtimewillseektoestablishbindingtiesto"MoscowtheThirdRome,"thusrejectingthe
snaresofthe"rational-individualisticWest"(389,393).ThestatesofRomania,Macedonia,
"SerbianBosnia,"andevenNATO-memberGreeceintime,Duginpredicts,willbecomeconstituent
partsoftheEurasian-RussianEmpire(346,383).
AsfortheformerunionrepublicsoftheUSSRsituatedwithinEurope,theyall,inDugin'sview,
(withtheexceptionofEstonia)shouldbeabsorbedbyEurasia-Russia."Belorussia,"Duginasserts
flatly,
"shouldbeseenasapartofRussia"(377).Insimilarfashion,Moldovaisseenasapartofwhat
Dugincalls"theRussianSouth"(343).
OnthekeyquestionofUkraine,Duginunderlines:"Ukraineasastatehasnogeopoliticalmeaning.
Ithasnoparticularculturalimportoruniversalsignificance,nogeographicuniqueness,noethnic
exclusiveness"(377)."Ukraineasanindependentstatewithcertainterritorialambitions,"hewarns,
"representsanenormousdangerforallofEurasiaand,withoutresolvingtheUkrainianproblem,it
isingeneralsenselesstospeakaboutcontinentalpolitics"(348).Andheaddsthat,"[T]he
independentexistenceofUkraine(especiallywithinitspresentborders)canmakesenseonlyasa
'sanitarycordon'"(379).However,aswehaveseen,forDuginallsuch"sanitarycordons"are
inadmissible.
DuginspeculatesthatthreeextremewesternregionsofUkraine--Volynia,Galicia,andTrans-
Carpathia--heavilypopulatedwithUniatesandotherCatholics,couldbepermittedtoforman
independent"WesternUkrainianFederation."Butthisareamustnotunderanycircumstancesbe
permittedtofallunderAtlanticistcontrol(382).Withtheexceptionofthesethreewesternregions,
Ukraine,likeBelorussia,isseenasanintegralpartofEurasia-Russia.
Atonepointinhisbook,Duginconfidesthatallarrangementsmadewith"theEurasianblocofthe
continentalWest,"headedbyGermany,willbemerelytemporaryandprovisionalinnature."The
maximumtask[ofthefuture],"heunderscores,"isthe'Finlandization'ofallofEurope"(369).
TheMoscow-TokyoAxis
ThecornerstoneofDugin'sapproachtotheFarEastliesinthecreationofa"Moscow-TokyoAxis."
InrelationtoJapan,heemphasizes,"theprincipleofacommonenemy[thatis,theUnited
States]"willprovedecisive(234).AsinthecaseofGermany,Japanistobeofferedanimperial
GrandBargain.DuginrecommendsthattheKurilesberestoredtoJapanasKaliningradistobe
restoredtoGermany(238).Forfutureexpansionpurposes,Japanistobeencouragedtoimpose
"itsown'neworder,'whichitplannedtocarryoutinthe1930s,inthePacificOcean"(277).
DuginnotesthatanotherimportantallyofEurasia-RussiawillbeIndia,which,likeJapan,willbe
invitedtojoinRussiaineffortstocontainandperhapsdismemberChina.ThetwoKoreasand
Vietnamalsowillbeinvitedtoparticipateinthiseffort(360).Mongoliaisseenasconstituting"a
strategicallyofRussia"andistobeabsorbeddirectlyintoEurasia-Russia(363).
LiketheUnitedStates,thePeople'sRepublicofChinaisseenasconstitutinganenormousdanger
forEurasia-Russia.OnceitrejectedMao'shealthypathof"peasantsocialism,"Chinasetabout
institutingeconomicreformsthathavebeenachieved"atthepriceofadeepcompromisewiththe
West"(232-233).China,inDugin'sperverseview,vergesuponbeinganAtlanticistfactotum.
Atseveralpointsinhisbook,DugingivesventtoafearthatChinamightatsometimeinthe
future"undertakeadesperatethrusttotheNorth--intoKazakhstanandEasternSiberia"(172).In
asectiontitled"TheFallofChina,"Dugindirectlywarns:"Chinaisthemostdangerousgeopolitical
neighborofRussiatotheSouth"(359).China,hemaintains,isadangertoRussiaboth"asa
geopoliticalbaseforAtlanticismandbyitself,asacountrywithheighteneddemographic
compactnessinquestof'noman'sland'"(360).
BecauseofthethreattoRussia'svitalgeopoliticalinterestsrepresentedbyChina,Duginholdsthat
thePRCmustbedismantled.Heunderlines:"Tibet-Sinkiang-Mongolia-Manchuriatakentogether
compriseasecuritybeltofRussia"(363).Eurasia-Russiamustseek,atallcosts,topromote"the
territorialdisintegration,splinteringandthepoliticalandadministrativepartitionofthe[Chinese]
state"(360)."WithoutSinkiangandTibet,"heconcludes,"thepotentialgeopoliticalbreakthrough
ofChinaintoKazakhstanandSiberiabecomesimpossible"(362).
As"geopoliticalcompensation"forthelossofitsnorthernregions,China,Duginrecommends,
shouldbeoffereddevelopment"inasoutherndirection--Indochina(exceptVietnam),the
Philippines,Indonesia,Australia"(363).TheseareasconstituteChina'sappropriatesphereof
dominance.
Itshouldbenotedthatinthelengthypostscriptsectionappendedtothe1999versionof
FoundationsofGeopolitics,DuginreaffirmshisbeliefintheneedforEurasia-Russiatoeffecta
dismemberingofChina(781).InaninterviewgivenbyDugininlateJuly2001,however,he
backedoffslightlyfromthisposition--presumablyindeferencetoPutin'sstatedpositiononChina-
-butonlytoadegree.HecontinuedtoinsistthatRussia'srelationswithJapan,Iran,andIndia
weremorevitalandsignificantthanthosewithChina.49
TheMoscow-TeheranAxis
ThemostambitiousandcomplexpartofDugin'sprogramconcernstheSouth,wherethefocal
pointisaMoscow-Teheranaxis."TheideaofacontinentalRussian-Islamicalliance,"hewrites,
"liesatthefoundationofanti-Atlanticiststrategy.[T]hisallianceisbasedonthetraditional
characterofRussianandIslamiccivilization"(158)."Onthewhole,"hecontinues,"theentire
IslamiczonerepresentsanaturallyfriendlygeopoliticalrealityinrelationtotheEurasianEmpire,
sincetheIslamictradition...fullyunderstandsthespiritualincompatibilityofAmericaandreligion.
TheAtlanticiststhemselvesseetheIslamicworld,onthewhole,astheirpotentialopponent"
(239).
AstheresultofanespeciallybroadGrandAlliancetobeconcludedwithIran,Duginmaintinsthat
Eurasia-Russiawillenjoytheprospectofrealizingacenturies-oldRussiandreamandfinallyreach
the"warmseas"oftheIndianOcean."InrelationtotheSouth,"hewrites,"the'geopoliticalaxisof
history'[Russia]hasonlyoneimperative--geopoliticalexpansiontotheshoresoftheIndian
Ocean"(341)."Havingreceivedgeopoliticalaccess--inthefirstplace,navalbases--ontheIranian
shores,"hewrites,"Eurasiawillenjoyfullsecurityfromthestrategyofthe'Anacondaring'"(241).
Eurasia-RussiaandtheEmpireofIran,heemphasizes,willhave"oneandthesamegeopolitical
tendency"(242).
AsaconsequenceofthisGrandAlliance,Eurasia-Russiashouldbepreparedtodivideupthe
imperialspoilswith"theIslamicEmpireintheSouth"(239).Afteraskingthequestion"Whatisthe
RussianSouth?"Duginclaimsthatitincludes"theCaucasus[allofit]""theeasternandnorthern
shoresoftheCaspian(theterritoriesofKazakhstanandTurkmeniya)""CentralAsia,including
Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,KirgiziyaandTajikistan"plus"Mongolia."Eventheseregions,henotes,
shouldbeseen"aszonesoffurthergeopoliticalexpansiontothesouthandnotas'eternalborders
ofRussia'"(343)."ControlovertheCaucasus,"Duginnotesatonepointinthebook,"opens...an
exittothe'warmseas'"(349).
TheextensivestretchofterritorylyingtothesouthoftheRussianFederationistobedivviedup
withafutureIranianEmpireandwithArmeniaaswell."Aspecialgeopoliticalrole,"Duginwrites,
"isplayedbyArmenia,whichisatraditionalandreliableallyofRussiaintheCaucasus.Armenia
willserveasa
mostimportantstrategicbaseinthethwartingofTurkishaggressiontothenorthandtotheeast."
Itisnecessary,thereforetocreate"the[subsidiary]axisMoscow-Erevan-Teheran"(352)."The
Armenians,"Duginunderscoreswithapproval,"areanAryanpeople...[like]theIraniansandthe
Kurds"(243).
AzerbaijanrepresentsoneexampleofhowthetrioEurasia-Russia,Iran,andArmeniamightchoose
todivideupthespoils."IfAzerbaijan,"Duginwarns,"maintainsits[present]pro-Turkish
orientation,thenthat'country'willbesplitupamongIran,Russia,andArmenia.Almostthesame
holdstruewithregardtootherregionsoftheCaucasus--Chechnya,Abkhaziya,Dagestan,etc."
(243)."Itmakessense,"Duginwriteselsewhere,"tobindAzerbaijantoIran"(352).
AccordingtoDugin,Kazakhstanwillbeintegrated"intoacommoncontinentalblocwithRussia"
(354).Abkhaziya,too,willbetied"directlytoRussia"(351).Hespeculatesthata"unitedOsetiya"
alsomightbeincorporatedintoEurasia-Russia(351).AndasfortheremainingpartsofGeorgia?
DuginimpliesthatwhatremainsofthisOrthodoxChristiancountryafterRussiaabsorbsAbkhaziya
andSouthOsetiyamightbeturnedovertoIranasbooty,appropriatepunishment,presumably,for
itspricklyindependentcoursetowardRussiainthepost-communistperiod.
AccordingtoDugin,akeyreasonforconcludingaGrandAlliancewithIranisRussia'sneedfora
MuslimallyinitsstruggleagainstsecularTurkeyand"IslamicSaudiArabia"withitsdangerous
Wahhabism.TurkeyistobetreatedasharshlyastheUnitedStatesandChina."Itisimportant,"
Duginwrites,"totakeintoconsiderationthenecessityofaffixingtoTurkeytheroleof'scapegoat'
inthis[Eurasian]project"(244).Kurds,Armenians,andotherTurkishminoritiesaretobe
provokedintorebellion.Duginstressestheneedtocreate"geopoliticalshocks"withinTurkey
(352).LikeAzerbaijan,DuginpredictsthatTurkeycouldbedismemberedbyEurasia-Russia,Iran,
andArmeniainthefuture.Ifsuchadismembermentshouldnotoccur,however,Turkey,likeChina,
mustbeencouragedtoexpandexclusivelysouthward,"intotheArabworldthroughBaghdad,
Damascus,andRiyadh"(244).
Conclusion
Inamomentofexultantimperialelan,Duginrevealinglytrumpetsatonepointinhisbook,"The
battlefortheworldruleof[ethnic]Russianshasnotended"(213).Itisnecessarytospeakthe
unvarnishedtruth.AnofficialadviserongeopoliticstothespeakeroftheRussianDumaisa
dangerousRussianfascist.Ashasbeennoted,Duginalsoreportedlyenjoysclosetiestoelements
inthepresidentialadministration,thesecretservices,themilitary,andtheparliament.Although
Dugin'sinfluenceshouldnotbeexaggerated,italsoshouldnotbeunderstated.Oneisrequiredto
askwhetherRussianfascism--atendencywhichexhibitscontemptbothforinternationalborders
andforinternationallaw--hasarealisticchanceofemergingasthe"newpoliticalthinking"in
internationalaffairsinVladimirPutin'sRussia.Inlate1998,RussianacademicAndreiTsygankov
appropriatelywarnedthatthediscourseofDuginandoflike-minded"Eurasians"isinreality"the
discourseofwar."50
InterviewedbyajournalistfromthearmynewspaperKrasnyazvezdainMay2001,Duginpatiently
explained:"EurasianspaceistheterritoryofRussia,thecountriesoftheCISandapartofthe
adjacentterritoriestotheWestandtotheSouth,wherethereisnoclear-cutgeopolitical
orientation.AllofthiscomprisesEurasianstrategicspacebroadlyunderstood."51Thearmy
reporterofferednoobjectionstothisquitemadschema.
AleksandrDugin'sFoundationsofGeopolitics,tosummarize,representsaharshandcynical
repudiationofthearchitectureofinternationalrelationsthatwaslaboriouslyerectedfollowingthe
carnageoftheSecondWorldWarandtheemergenceofnuclearweapons.Duginandhis"system,"
itseems,resemblethecombustibleinterwarperiodandtheriseoffascisminEurope,withthelurid
imperialfantasiesoftheDuce,theFuhrer,andotherfascistdemagogues.Couldareversiontoa
destructivepastbethe"dividend"whichRussiaandtheWestaretoreceiveforhavingfinallyand
withenormouseffortputanendtothecoldwar?
NOTES
TheauthorwouldliketothankRobertOttoforgenerousandextremelyhelpfulbibliographicalassistance.ThanksalsotoGlenHowardforbringingseveralusefulbibliographicalitemstomy
attentionandtomyresearchassistants,JoyceCerwinandYuliyaShmeleva,fortheirfinework.
1.FrancoiseThom,"Eurasiansm:AnewRussianforeignpolicy?"UncaptiveMinds7,no.2(1994):76.
2.AleksandrDugin,Aleksandr.Osnovygeopolitiki:GeopoliticheskoebudushcheeRossii(Moscow:Arktogeya,1997).ThebookwasrepublishedwithoutchangebyDuginin1999,together
withlengthysupplementalmaterials--ofnogreatsignificance--appendedunderthetitleMyslit'prostranstvom.Myreferencesaretothe1997edition.
3.Unlessotherwiseindicated,thebiographicalinformationonDuginprovidedinthispapercomesfromStephenShenfield,RussianFascism:Traditions,Tendencies,Movements(Armonk,NY:
M.E.Sharpe,2001),190-220.
4.SeeMarinaLatysheva,Issledovatelitemnykhsilizdvizheniya'Evraziya'sdelalidlyaprezidentaanalaticheskiitsentrigotovyzamenit'MID.Versiya,May29,2001.
5.CharlesClover,"WilltheRussianbearroaragain?"FinancialTimes,December12,2000.
6.Shenfield,195.ForarepresentativesampleofDugin'stheoreticalfascistwritings,seeAleksandrDugin,Absolyutnayarodina(Moscow:Arktogeya,1999).
7.Shenfield,192.
8.OnProkhanov,seeJohnB.Dunlop,TheRiseofRussiaandtheFalloftheSovietEmpire,2d.ed.(Princeton,NJ:PrincetonUniversityPress,1995),169-177.
9.AleksandrVerkhovskiiandVladimirPribylovskii,Natsional-patrioticheskieorganizatsiivRossii(Moscow:Izdatel'stvo'Instituteksperimental'noisotsiologii,'1996),50.
10.Ibid.,51.
11.BerniceGlatzerRosenthal,TheOccultinRussianandSovietCulture(Ithaca,NY:CornellUniversityPress,1997),395.
12.See"Rossiya,Germaniyaidrugie,"Elementy,1(1992):22-25.
13.Shenfield,198.
14.Clover.
15.Thorn,67-68.
16.AleksandrDugin,Konspiratologiya(Moscow:Arktogeya,1993),115.17.VerkhovskiiandPribylovskii,50.
18.WayneAllensworth,TheRussianQuestion:Nationalism,ModernizationandPost-CommunistRussia(Lanham,MD:RowmanandLittlefield,1998),257.
19.Shenfield,194.
20.Clover.
21.Shenfield,199.
22."100vedushchikhpolitkovRossiiviyune,"Nezavisimayagazeta,July10,2001.23.Shenfield,197.
24.See"Stenogrammarabotyuchreditel'nogos'ezdaObshcherossiiskogoPoliticheskogoObshchestvennogoDvizheniya'Evraziya,'21aprelya2001,"athttp://eurasia.com.ru:8101/syezd.htm.
25.SeeAleksandrDugin,introductiontoNikolaiTrubetskoiNasledieChingizkhana(Moscow:AGRAF,1999),5-25.
26.AleksandrDugin"Evraziiskayaplatforma,"Zavtra,January21,2000.
27.AleksandrDugin"Zaryavsapogakh,"Zavtra,March31,2000.
28.AndreiKolesnikov"Poslepodvodnoilodki,"Izvestiya,August29,2000.
29.VladimirPutin,"Rossiyavsegdaoshchushchalasebyaevroaziatskoistranoi,"Strana.ru,November13,2000.
30.http://www.arctogaia.com/public/putin/htrr,May23,2001.
31.YaroslavaZabello"Evraziya--prevyshevsego?"Transkaspiiskiiproekt:informat-siono-
analaticheskiiserver,June13,2001.
32.PavelPolnyan"Sibir'otchenlyaetsyalegko,"MoskovskiikomsomoltsvKrasno-yarske,29,July18,
2001,http://arctogaia.krasu.ru/eurasia/dugin_krskl2.shtrr.
33.GrigoriiOsterman"Eslivakhkhabizmnesdaetsya,egoipravlyayut,"June28,2001,SMI.ru,.
34.AleksandrMaksimovandOrkhanKarabaagi."Onivsvoikhkorridorakh,"Obshchayagazeta,May31,2001.
35.Latysheva.
36."Stenogramma..."
37.Strana.ru,June4,2001.
38.TadzhuddinisrecognizedbyaminorityofthefortyMuslimadministrationsinRussia,buthecanboastof"notatallbadconnectionswiththe[Russian]specialservices,"withwhomhehas
beencooperatingsincetakinguphiscurrentpostin1980.SeeMaksimovandKarabaagi.ItshouldbenotedthatonJune19,2001,arivalorganizationof"Eurasians,"headedbystateDuma
deputyAbdul-VakhedNiyazov,heldafoundingcongressforanewEurasianPartyofRussia(EPR).NiyazovisanethnicRussian(formerlyVadimMedvedev),whoconvertedtoIslamin1996.
OnJuly26,2001,theEPR,withbranchesinseventyregionsofRussia,wasregisteredbytheRussianMinistryofJustice.DuginhasassailedthisrivalgroupasbeingwittingtoolsofSaudi
ArabiaandofWahhabism.Anumberofwell-knownleadersofMuslimbackgroundinRussiaandinCISstates,ontheotherhand,haveofferedsupportfortheEPR.Theseleadersinclude
AslambekAslakhanov,RamazanAbdulatipov,ChingizAitmatov,OlzhasSuleimenov,StanislavDerev,andMuftiAkhmadKadyrov.ThepresidentsofKazakhstan,NursultanNazarbaev,andof
Tatarstan,MintimerShaimiev,alsohaveindicatedadegreeofsupport.SeeNovyeizvestiiya(June30,2001andJuly27,2001)Nezavisimayagazeta(June8,2001andJuly31,2001)SMI.ru
(June19,2001)Moskovskiikomsomolets(August3,2001)andNG-religii(August8,2001).
39.AleksandrDugin"Interv'yudlya'EkhoMoskvy-Krsnoyarsk',"25iyulya2001,postedat:http://arctogaia.krasu.ru/eurasia/dugin_int_1.shtm.
40.See"Rossiyadolzhnauchest'oshibkiAmeriki,"Nezavisimayagazeta,September13,2001.ForDugin'stakeontheeventsofSeptember11,seehis"Lastochki
Apokalipsa,"http://arctogaia.com/public/lastochki.html,September12,2001.
41.EvgeniiIkhlov"Onivsvoikhkorridorakh:Dvestoronynovogoevraziistva,"Obshchayagazeta,August2,2001.
42.DmitriiRadyshevskii"Soblaznevraziistva,"Moskovskienovosti18,May1-14,2001.
43.Forausefulsurveyoftwentieth-centuryWesterngeopoliticalliterature,seeGeoffreyParkerWesternGeopoliticalThoughtintheTwentiethCentury(London:CroomHelm,1985).Chapter
fiveofParker'sbookisdevotedto"GermanGeopolitik."
44.Allensworth,249.45.Ibid.,251.
46.Hereandsubsequently,thepagenumbersgiveninparenthesesrefertothe1997editionofDugin'sbook.
IdeologueOfEmpire
byIlanBerman
WallStreetJournalEurope
November3,2005
Chancesare,you'veneverheardofAlexanderDugin.IntheU.S.andEurope,thesoft-spokenRussianpolitical
philosopherisstillverymuchamarginalfigure.ButwithinRussiaitself,the43-year-oldstrategisthasbecome
aninfluentialpoliticalforce.And,increasingly,hisradicalideasaboutareconstituted,anti-Westernempireare
makingtheirmarkonRussianforeignpolicy.
Mr.Dugin'spoliticalpastismiredincontroversy.Duringthe1980s,hereportedlyworkedasanarchivistfor
theKGB,wherehewasexposedto,andinfluencedby,theideasoftheearly"Eurasianists"--Russianthinkers
likeLevGumilyovwho,intheearly1900s,hadmodernizedandpopularizedtheideaofRussia'shistorical
destinyasanempire.Aone-timefascist,Mr.Duginjoinedforceswithcontroversialwriter/activistEduard
Limonovintheearly1990stoformtheNationalBolshevikParty(NBP),usingitasaplatformtoadvocatea
"conservativerevolution"pittingRussiaagainsttheWest.
Bythelate1990s,however,Mr.DuginhadbrokenwithMr.LimonovandtheNBPinpursuitofamorepuritan
politicalapproach.In1997,hegainedprominencewiththepublicationofhisseminalwork,"Osnovy
Geopolitike"(TheFoundationsofGeopolitics)--arambling,924-pagetreatiseadvocatingthere-creationofan
anti-WesternRussianempire.Init,Mr.DuginpostulatedthatRussiaandtheU.S.aredestinedforglobal
confrontation,andproposedaseriesofalliancesthroughwhichRussiacanachieveinternationaldominance.
Sincethen,Mr.Duginhasbegunputtingtheseprinciplesintopractice.In2000,hecreated"Eurasia,"asocio-
politicalmovementdedicatedtotherevivaloftheartofgeopolitics--andtotheideaofa"GreaterRussia"
stretchingfromtheMiddleEasttothePacific.Notsurprisingly,thegroup'sheadycocktailofmysticism,
religioussymbolismandgoodold-fashionedpoliticalpartisanshipfoundmorethanafewtakersamongRussians
disenchantedwiththeircountry'ssecond-rateeconomicandpoliticalstatus.(Today,accordingtoMr.Dugin,his
movementboastssome25,000membersinRussiaanditsso-called"nearabroad,"manyofthemcurrentand
formermembersoftheRussianintelligenceservicesandmilitary.)Twoandahalfyearslater,Mr.Dugin'sideas
wereformallyentrenchedinRussianpoliticaldiscoursewiththecharteringofhis"EurasiaParty,"apolitical
factiondeeplysupportiveofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sforeignpolicyline.
Overtheyears,Mr.Dugin'sinfluencehasebbedandflowedwiththecurrentsofRussianforeignpolicy.Before
September11th,hisideasaboutmultipolarityandanti-Americanismwereverymuchinvogueinthecorridors
oftheKremlin,withMr.DuginreportedlyservingasanunofficialadvisertoanumberofimportantRussian
defenseofficialsanddiplomats.ButinthewakeoftheterroristattacksonNewYorkandWashington,Mr.
Dugin'sstarwaned.AgainstthecounselofmanyinMoscow,PresidentPutinralliedtothesideoftheUnited
States,supportingthewaronterrorandtheU.S.offensiveagainsttheTalibanandalQaedainAfghanistan.
Gradually,however,Mr.Dugin'sphilosophyhasresurfaced,buoyedbyawaveofrenewednationalistsentiment
andimperialimpulses.IntheaftermathoftheU.S.-ledcampaignagainstSaddamHussein'sIraq,Washington's
cooperationwithMoscowhascooled,andtheKremlinhasrevertedtooldhabits.IntheMiddleEast,inlinewith
Mr.Dugin'sdictums,theRussiangovernmentisstubbornlynurturingitsnuclearcontactswithIran,aswellas
expandingarmssuppliestothebeleagueredregimeofSyriandictatorBasharAssad.InAsia,Moscowisdrifting
closertoChinainastrategicpartnershipthatMr.Duginhaspraisedasan"allianceintheheartofEurasia."
AndinCentralAsiaandtheCaucasus,theKremlinisgravitatingtowardanincreasinglyhostile,anti-American
foreignpolicystance,nervousovertherecentdemocratictransformationsthathavetakenplaceinGeorgia,
UkraineandKyrgyzstan.
Mr.Dugin,forhispart,isseizingthemoment.Thephilosopherhasprovidedmuch-neededintellectualcoverfor
thissummer'slandmarkRussian-Chinesemilitarymaneuvers,whichhaveelicitedseriousworriesintheWest.
Thistypeofaggressivemilitarycooperationisonlynatural,Mr.Duginexplains,becausebothcountriesare
threatenedbytherecentUkrainian,GeorgianandKyrgyz"colorrevolutions"--andbytheperceived
"Americanconnection"tothesetransformations.
Mr.DuginhasalsothrownhisweightbehindMoscow'seffortstooustAmericaninfluencefromthe"post-Soviet
space.""Anewstrategicblocistakingshapebeforeoureyes,"herecentlywrotewithadmirationinthe
newspaperVedomosti."TheAmericansarefirmlyresolvedtocontinuetheirpolicyinEurasia,"and"Russia's
salvation"lieswiththeShanghaiCooperationOrganization,aMoscow-andBeijing-ledregionalanti-Western
allianceencompassingmanyoftheformerSovietrepublics.
Athome,meanwhile,Mr.Duginischannelinghisenergiestowardthemobilizationofvariousnationalistforces.
Inrecentweeks,hisEurasiamovementhasspearheadedtherapprochementofvariousethnicandpolitical
groupsinRussiaandthenearabroad.Thegoal,accordingtoMr.Dugin,isthecreationofasweeping"Anti-
Orange"politicalfrontaimedatconfrontingthenew,pluralisticandpro-WesterngovernmentsinUkraineand
Georgia--andofpreventingsimilardemocraticinroadsinanincreasinglyauthoritarianRussia.
Asthesemaneuverssuggest,Mr.Dugin'svisionisxenophobic,antidemocraticanddeeplyanti-Western.
Alarmingly,italsoappearstobegainingseriousgroundinPutin'sRussia,whereauthoritariandriftand
oppositiontotheU.S.areagainbecomingtheorderoftheday.
Senttime: 07/30/201608:30:07AM
FW:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-29]RUAirstrikes
Subject:
['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUofUnderminingUAPeacePlan...
Sent:Friday,July29,20169:02PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-29]RU
Airstrikes['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUofUnderminingUAPeace
Plan...
Subject:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-
29]RUAirstrikes['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUof
UnderminingUAPeacePlanDTRUResetIdeasBackedbyNation'sSC..[PC]DNCHackerDIDworkforRU..[ANT/F]
RUDuma&VolynRUtrollswithnewtasksAmericanswhothinkVladisOKRUPromisesExitCorridorsforRebs/Civiliansin
Aleppo[asktheUAsoldiersinIlovaiskaboutthat]
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at12:49PM
Subject:FPIConferenceCallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections
To:walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FollowandSupportFPI
FPIConferenceCallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections
Yesterday,FPIhostedaconferencecalltodiscussRussianinterferenceinforeignelections,toincludeitsreportedhackoftheDemocratic
NationalCommittee.ThespeakersonthecallwereDavidJ.KrameroftheMcCainInstitute,PatrikMaldreofRetelPartners,andHannahThoburn
oftheHudsonInstitute.FPIbelievesthatthefollowinginsightssharedbytheexpertswillbeespeciallyusefultolawmakersandtheirstaffaswell
asallthoseinunderstandingtheimplicationsofRussiascyberactivitiesandinterferenceinforeignelections.
AfullrecordingoftheconferencecallisalsoavailableontheFPIwebsite.
RussianCyberActivities
Russiahasbeenreallydevelopingoffensivecybercapabilitiesformanyyears.Thesethreatgroups,manysecuritycompaniesfollowthese,
obviouslytheintelligenceagenciesaswell.Theyreallyconsistofprofessional,veryskilledpractitionerswhosedayjobistocarryoutthese
attacks.Theyreceivespecificordersonwhichinstitutionstotargetandwhatkindofinformationisneeded.PatrikMaldre
Thisparticularthreatactorhasbeenattackingavarietyofcountries.ItwasthesameFancyBearmalwareusedintheUkrainecentralelection
commissionservers,FrenchTVattacks,alotofdifferentattackshavebeenassociatedwiththis.Thesearethreatactorsthatareconducting
multipleoperationsatthesametime.Theirmalwaremightbepresentindozensifnothundredsoforganizationsatthemoment.Butitsawhole
differentstorywhentheystartusingthistoovertlyattackanelectioncycle.PatrikMaldre
AverylargeportionoftheUkrainianpowergridwasdisabledbyamalwareattackjustlastwinter.Sothesearethekindsofthingsthathavebeen
happening,andtheyhaventreallymadeitintotheU.S.publicconsciousness,butwerenowstartingtoseethisisbecomingveryrelevanttothe
survivalandthehealthyoperationofourowndemocracy.HannahThoburn
ImplicationsoftheDNCHack
Tosendthesedocumentsorthisinformationtomediaoutletsortopublishthempubliclysignalsanintentnotjusttoknowandunderstand
thingsaboutthepoliticalprocess,butcruciallytoplayanactiveroleinit.Withthisdisclosure,theDNChackreallytransitionedfromespionage
intotherealmofinfluenceoperations.PatrikMaldre
Whatweveseeninthislatestcaseiswellbeyondgatheringintelligence.ThisisanefforttoataminimumdisrupttheU.S.politicalsystem,the
presidentialcampaign.PossiblythegoalistoembarrassonecandidateorsupportanotherbutIagreewithPatrikthatthisisanattackonthe
Americanpoliticalsystem,itsnotanattackontheDNC,itcouldhavebeenanattackontheRNC,itcouldvebeenanattackonanybody.
DavidKramer
TheRussianMindset
RussiareallyaimstoweakenanddestabilizetheU.S.anddividethetransatlanticinstitutionsandalliancesthatbindustogetherandsoitsreally
nosecretatthispointthatRussiahasincorporatedsignalsintelligenceandcybercapabilitiesintothebroaderarsenalthatitusestoachieve
thesegoals.PatrikMaldre
[Russians]say,lookyouremeddlinginourelectionssoweregoingtodothesamethingtoyou.ItsveryinterestingbecausewhattheRussians
conceiveofasU.S.meddlingisentirelydifferent.Itisessentiallysupportingafoundationthatmonitorselectionsandcallsforfreeandfair
elections.ThatstheRussianideaofU.S.meddlinginanelection.HannahThoburn
WeneedtounderstandthekindofRussiaweretalkingaboutthesedays,whichisaRussiathatwasverypleasedtoseetheflowofrefugees
intoEurope,exacerbatingarefugeecrisisthereaRussiathathassupportedthemurderousAssadregimeinSyria,alongwithIranaRussiathat
hasinvadeditsneighbors,Ukrainestartingin2014,Georgia,2008.Theydemonizeus,theyvilifyus,theythreatenus.Theytalkaboutusing
nuclearweapons.Theybuzzouraircraftandourships.Andsothisisnotabenignregimeintheleast.AndIthinkwehavetolookatthishacking
incidentagainstthatbackdrop,thatthisisjustthelatestofmanyverydisturbingdevelopmentsweveseencomingoutofMoscow.David
Kramer
RussianInterferenceinEuropeanElections
ItisreallyincentralandEasternEuropethattheyvereallybeenabletopracticeandhonethesetechniquesandyourenowstartingtoseethat
theyrecomfortableenoughwiththemtostarttoexportthemtootherpartsoftheworld.HannahThoburn
[Russia]hasprovideddirectopensupportforMarineLePeninFranceinthehopethatthatsupportwouldboostherstandinginFrance.It
supportedforcesinGreeceandItaly.SoRussianinterferenceinothercountriespoliticsandelectionsisnotanewphenomenonandithasmoved
beyondjustRussiasimmediateborders.DavidKramer
IvearguedforalongtimethatPutinsgreatestexportiscorruption.Butinordertoexportit,wehavetoimportit.Andsoweinthewestneedto
doamuchbetterjobofcleaningupourownsystems,ofrestoringasenseofshameandhonourthatseemtohavedisappeared.Itshouldntbe
acceptabletoopenlytakeRussianmoney,itshouldntbeacceptabletocovertlytakeRussianmoneyandyetthatdoesseemtobehappeningin
oursystems.DavidKramer
PotentialWesternResponses
Forstarters,assumingweareconfidentthatRussiawasbehindthishackingweshouldpubliclysayso.Beyondthatthereareanumberof
optionsthatcouldincludeacyberattackofsomesort,itcouldincludegoingafterindividualsintheseagencies,sanctioningthem,makingsure
alliesareonboard.DavidKramer
TheUSgovernmentandotherwesterngovernmentsreallywanttokeeptheir[offensivecyber]capabilitiesunderwrapsjustbecauseassoonas
thetechnicalcharacteristicsofthesecapabilitiesareknown,opponentscantakeactiontoreducetheireffectivenessormakethemnotworkatall.
Thereareoffensivecapabilitiestouse,thequestionis,doesthisparticularcasegetoverthethresholdneededtotriggeraresponse.Patrik
Maldre
RussiansgetmostoftheirnewsandinformationfromTVandsotakingovertelevisionwasthewayforPutintomakesurehehadcontrolover
thewayRussiansreceivetheirnewsandinformation.We,inmyview,shouldnotengageincounter-propaganda,weshouldsupportfact-based
journalismtohelpgetnewsandinformationinsideRussiaaswelltoRussian-speakingpopulationsandcountriesalongRussiasbordertolet
themknowwhatsreallyhappeninginsidetheircountry.DavidKramer

AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative
FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromotean
activeU.S.foreignpolicycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthe
challengesofthe21stcentury,andstrengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisled
byExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoardofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visit
ourwebsiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Subject:FW:R'sairstrikesinS[yria][ED:Alsonotethe'humanitarianconvoysRUisproposingforAleppo..callit
"DONBASII"]
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
From:ThomasHHenriksen[mailto:thomash@stanford.edu]
Sent:Friday,July29,201610:34AM
To:JohnBDunloppaulroderickgregory
Subject:R'sairstrikesinS
http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russianairstrikessyriajune18july132016
Russian Airstrikes in Syria: June 18 July 13, 2016

...
www.understandingwar.org
Russia set conditions for the proposal through a calculated expansion

and subsequent tapering of its air campaign throughout June and July
2016.
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:RFE/RL,NYT
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Twomoreforyourweekendreadingwellworthit.
RFE/RL
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-us-diplomats-russia-undermining-peace-plan/27888327.html
July29,2016
U.S.DiplomatsAccuseRussiaOfUnderminingUkrainePeacePlan
byRobertCoalson
TwotopU.S.diplomatsworkingtoresolvetheconflictineasternUkrainehaveaccusedRussiaofcontinuingtosupplyseparatist
fighterswithfuelandweaponsandcreatinga"deterioratingsecuritysituation"intheregionthatisasbadasitwasayearago.
AmbassadorDanielBaer,headoftheU.S.missiontotheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),andU.S.
AmbassadortoUkraineGeoffreyPyattmadethestatementsduringaJuly29telephonicpressbriefingfromVienna.
ThebriefingcameonedayaftertheheadoftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)inUkraine,ErtugrulApakan,and
OSCEspecialrepresentativeonUkraineMartinSajdikbriefedtheOSCEPermanentCouncilonthesituation.
BaersaidtheUnitedStatesandotherOSCEmemberswereincreasinglyconcernedbywhattheyseeasadisconnectbetween
Russia'swordsanditsactionsregardingtheconflict.
"Weseecontinuedresupplyofweaponsandfightersweseecontinuedprovocationstokeeptheconflictgoingweseecontinued
restrictionsoftheSMManditsmonitorsweseecontinuedshoot-downsofSMMUAVs[drones]aftertheyhaveseenRussian
heavyweaponryinplaceswhereitshouldn'tbe,"Baersaid.
"Andso,themessagethatwasdeliveredtotheRussianFederationyesterdaybymany,manyparticipatingstatesinthe[OSCE]
PermanentCouncilisthatitistimetomatchyourwordswithaction."
Pyattstressedthesamepoint,sayingthatRussia'scontinuedmaterialsupportofseparatistfightersineasternUkrainewas"driving
theconflict."
"Ratherthanterminatingthisconflict,Russia'sactionsarehavingtheeffectofescalatingitonceagain,"Pyattsaid.
TheambassadorsalsoaccusedRussiaoffailingtoimplementtheMinskagreementthatwassignedinSeptember2014andwhich,
alongwithasecondagreementsignedinFebruary2015,issupposedtoprovidearoadmapforresolvingthecrisis.
PyattsaidRussiahadfailedtowithdrawtroopsandequipment,fullyimplementthecease-fireenvisionedundertheMinsk
agreements,andreleaseallhostages.
BaersaidthattheMinskaccordshad"allofthestepsthatarenecessary"toendtheconflict.
"Wehaveknownwhatneedstobedonefortwoyearsnow,"hesaid."Theproblemisnotinsolvingsomesortofdifficultpuzzle.
Thisisnotapuzzle.Theproblemispoliticalwill."
BaeraddedthattheU.S.positiononnotrecognizingRussia's2014annexationoftheUkrainianBlackSeapeninsulaofCrimea
remainedunchanged.
"Apointthatwehavemadehere[attheOSCE]whenRussianrepresentativessaytheywanttohaveaconversationaboutthe
futureofEuropeansecurityisthatanyconversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecuritywillhavetostartwithCrimea,"Baer
said.
AccordingtotheUnitedNations,morethan9,400peoplehavebeenkilledinfightingbetweenUkrainiansecurityforcesand
Russia-backedmilitantsineasternUkrainesinceApril2014.
TheNewYorkTimes
Trump'sRussiaResetIdeasAlarmingAllies,ManyinUS
[ED:ButtheAPcrowdwritingthearticleapparentlythinksthattheideasareworthyofconsideration]
JUSTLOOKATTHEFOLLOWINGQUOTEFROMTHEARTICLE.Ol'SteveCohen,furtherleftthanBernie,is
complimentarytotheDonald!!W'atBUpWit'T'at????.:
ButStevenCohen,professoremeritusofRussianstudiesatPrincetonandNewYorkUniversity,creditsTrumpforhoming
inonissuesthatareripefordiscussion.HesaidthatwhileTrumptalks"elliptically"and"justcan'twonk,"theGOP
nominee"inhisownwayseemstobeadvocatingdetente,"whichCohenseesasanadmirablegoal.
Cohensaidit'stimeforcriticstostopusing"McCarthyite"languagetodemonizeTrumpandhaveaserious
discussionabouttheissueshe'sraising.
"It'scalledadebate,"saidCohen."You'resupposedtohavetheminapresidentialcampaign."
ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJULY29,2016,3:04P.M.E.D.T.
PHILADELPHIADonaldTrump'sflurryofoffhandremarksandabruptzingersonRussiapraisingVladimirPutin,
dismissingNATOhavejoltedtheworld,nottomentiontheU.S.presidentialcampaign.
WithRussia'sbehaviorrattlingnervesintheU.S.andabroad,theRepublicanpresidentialnomineeisaccusedofcozyinguptoa
"dictator."OfthreateningtheveryunderpinningsofAmerica'srelationshipwithEurope.Andofnaivet.
Yetforallthat,Trump'swordsareconsistentwithsomelong-heldU.S.views,manyexpertssay.TheideaoffosteringU.S.-
Russiancooperationisn'toutlandishafterall,HillaryClintontriedto"reset"relationswithRussiaassecretaryofstate.Andpast
U.S.administrationsofbothpartieshavequietlycomplainedthatotherNATOmembersshouldpaytheirsharetothealliance.
It'sreallyTrump'swayofexpressinghisviewsthathasshockedmanyforeignpolicyexperts.
OnWednesday,TrumpofferedthisvisionforrosierU.S.-Russianrelations:
"IwouldtreatVladimirPutinfirmlybutthere'snothingthatIcanthinkofthatI'dratherdothanhaveRussiafriendlyasopposed
tothewaytheyarerightnowsothatwecangoandknockoutISIStogetheralongwithotherpeopleandwithothercountries,"
hesaid."Wouldn'titbeniceifweactuallygotalongwithpeople?"
TrumpalsopraisedtheRussianpresidentforhaving"betterleadershipqualities"thanPresidentBarackObamaandindicatedhe'd
considerliftingsanctionsagainstMoscowandrecognizingRussia'sannexationofCrimea.
AsforNATO,TrumpsaidthebasicideaofthealliancewasOKbutthat"it'sgottobemodernized.Andcountriesthatwe're
protectinghavetopaywhatthey'resupposedtobepaying."
Daysearlier,hesuggestedthathewoulddecidewhethertoprotectNATOalliesagainstRussianaggressionbasedonwhetherthey
had"fulfilledtheirobligations"financially.
AndhisoffhandinvitationforRussiatohelpunearththedeletedemailsfromClinton'sStateDepartmentyearsappearedtoviolate
acardinalruleagainstforeignmeddlinginU.S.politics.
Foreignpolicyexpertsofallstripes"areleftslack-jawed"byTrump'spronouncements,saidDerekChollet,asenioradviseratthe
GermanMarshallFundandformerPentagonofficialintheObamaadministration.
"Helooksattheworldsolelythroughtheprismofbusinesstransactions,talkingaboutalliesasifthey'reAtlanticCitycontractors
thathecanbilk,"saidChollet,whospokeoutinfavorofClintonduringherDemocraticprimarycampaignagainstSen.Bernie
Sanders.

ButStevenCohen,professoremeritusofRussianstudiesatPrincetonandNewYorkUniversity,creditsTrumpforhominginon
issuesthatareripefordiscussion.HesaidthatwhileTrumptalks"elliptically"and"justcan'twonk,"theGOPnominee"inhisown
wayseemstobeadvocatingdetente,"whichCohenseesasanadmirablegoal.
Cohensaidit'stimeforcriticstostopusing"McCarthyite"languagetodemonizeTrumpandhaveaseriousdiscussionaboutthe
issueshe'sraising.
AndyetDemocratsarenottheonlyonestorecoilatTrump'sremarks.SenateMajorityLeaderMitchMcConnell,amongother
topRepublicans,swiftlyexpresseddisagreementwiththenomineeandpromisedthatotherNATOmemberscancountontheU.S.
todefendthem.
DavidKramer,whowasaStateDepartmentofficialintheGeorgeW.Bushadministration,saidheandmanyotherforeignpolicy
thinkerssee"aRussiathatposesathreat.He(Trump)seesaleaderinVladimirPutinwhohethinkshecandevelopagood
relationshipwith."
Trump'scommentaboutCrimeaandRussiansanctions,saysKramer,sent"terriblesignalsandwillbeinterpretednotonlyasa
betrayalbytheUnitedStatesofouralliesbutasrewardingaggressivebehaviorbyRussia."
Inthe2012presidentialcampaign,thedynamicoverRussiawasswitched:RepublicannomineeMittRomneythencriticized
ObamaforbeingtooaccommodatingtowardRussia.AndDemocratsweretheonesfaultingRomneyforsayingthatRussiawas
America's"No.1geopoliticalfoe."
Obama'searlyhopeforthatresetwithMoscowhadlargelyevaporatedevenbeforeRussia's2014annexationofUkraine's
CrimeanpeninsulaanditsmilitaryinterventionineasternUkraine,whichunnervedcountriesonNATO'seasternflankthatfearthey
alsomaybetargetsofRussianintimidationoraggression.
Againstthatbackdrop,Trump'sremarksraisingdoubtsabouthonoringU.S.NATOcommitmentscreatedaninternationaluproar.
JulianneSmith,aformerdeputynationalsecurityadvisertoVicePresidentJoeBiden,saidTrumpdoesn'tseemtograspthe
complexitiesoftheU.S.relationshipwithRussia,reflectingbothinexperienceandalackofstrongadvisers.
"It'snotaquestionofwhetherPutinisgoodorbad,"shesaid."It'sabouthandlingaverydelicateandvolatilesituationthatcango
sourveryquickly."
YetothersnotethateventhecurrentObamaadministrationdependsonRussiaandseeksitshelpwithmanyworldcrises.

InSyria,despitedeepmutualfrustration,theU.S.andRussiaaretryingtoworktogethertoendafive-yearcivilwarthathasledto
globalterrorismfears.They'reevendiscussingamilitaryallianceagainsttheIslamicStategroup.CooperationextendstotheIran
nucleardeal,NorthKoreaandmore.
___
AssociatedPresswritersJillColvininToledo,Ohio,andBradleyKlapper,RobertBurnsandDebRiechmanninWashington
contributedtothisreport.
From:PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>
Subject:'DNCHacker'Unmasked:HeReallyWorksforRussia,ResearchersSay-Slashdot
To:
http://it.slashdot.org/story/16/07/26/180204/dnc-hacker-unmasked-he-really-works-for-russia-researchers-say
ThehackerwhoclaimedtocompromisetheDNCsworehewasRomanian,butnewinvestigationshowsheworkeddirectlyfor
RussiaPresidentVladimirPutin'sgovernmentinMoscow.TheDailyBeastreports:Thehackerwhoclaimstohavestolen
emailsfromtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandprovidedthemtoWikiLeaksisactuallyanagentoftheRussian
governmentandpartofanorchestratedattempttoinfluenceU.S.mediacoveragesurroundingthepresidentialelection,a
securityresearchgroupconcludedonTuesday.Theresearchers,atArlington,Va.-basedThreatConnect,tracedtheself-
describedRomanianhackerGuccifer2.0backtoanInternetserverinRussiaandtoadigitaladdressthathasbeenlinked
inthepasttoRussianonlinescams.Farfrombeingasingle,sophisticatedhacker,Guccifer2.0ismorelikelyacollection
ofpeoplefromthepropagandaarmoftheRussiangovernmentmeanttodeflectattentionawayfromMoscowastheforce
behindtheDNChacksandleaksofemails,theresearchersfound.ThreatConnectisthefirstknowngroupofexpertsto
linktheself-proclaimedhackertoaRussianoperation,amidstanongoingFBIinvestigationandapresidential
campaignrockedbythereleaseofDNCemailsthathaveembarrassedseniorpartyleadersandinflamedintraparty
tensionsturningtheDemocraticNationalConvention.Theemailsrevealedthatpartyinsidersplottedwaystoundermine
Sen.BernieSanders'presidentialbid.Theresearchersattheaforementionedsecurityfirmarebasingtheirconclusiononthree
signals:thehackerusedRussiancomputerstoeditPDFfiles,healsousedRussianVPN--andotherinternetinfrastructurefrom
thecountry,andthathewasunabletospeakRomanian.
Subject:RUtorecognizeVolhyniaasgenocide/RUpro-Trumptrolls/TheAmericanswhothinkPutinisntsobad(WP)/+
To:
[ED:TheDumaDeclarationontheVolynTragedyas'Genocide'isproofpositivethatthecurrentPL-UAcontroversy
hasa"RUpoliticaltechnologicaltail"attachedbutmorepiquantisthegallofKremlin.givenitssilenceaboutthe
HOLODOMORforover80years]
RussianStateDumaalsosuggeststorecognizeVolhyniaMassacreasgenocide
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-state-duma-also-suggests-to-recognize-volhynia-massacre-as-genocide-706421.html
"TheStateDumaoftheFederalAssemblyoftheRussianFederationsendsitssincerecondolencestothePolish
peopleinconnectionwithanationaltragedy,andexpressesitsprofoundsolidaritywiththeSejmoftheRepublicof
PolandontheissueofrecognitionofthecrimescommittedbytheUkrainiannationalistsontheterritoryofVolynas
genocide,"
ItlookslikeRussiahiredinternettrollstoposeaspro-TrumpAmericans
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-internet-trolls-and-donald-trump-2016-7
TheAmericanswhothinkVladimirPutinisntsobad
ByAdamTaylorJuly28
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/28/the-americans-who-think-vladimir-putin-isnt-so-bad/
...
FionaHill,anexpertonRussiawhoco-authoredabiographyofPutin,saysthatonarecentU.S.booktourshewasstruckby
howpositivepeoplewereaboutPutin."There'salotofadmirationforPutin,"HillsaidThursday."It'sgrudging,butpeopleseehim
asoneofthoselarger-than-lifecharacters."
...
AmorerecentpollhasevensuggestedthatPutinhaslowernegativeratingsthanTrumporClinton.Evenifplentyof
peopledonotlikePutin,it'spossiblethatnotthatmanyviewhimasamajorthreat.InaGalluppollfromFebruary,just39percent
ofAmericanswerefoundtoviewRussia'smilitarypowerasacriticalthreat.Thiswasfarbehindthetop-rankedfear,international
terrorism,which79percentofAmericanslistedasacriticalthreat.(Also,73percentrankedcyberterrorism"theuseof
computerstocausedisruptionorfearinsociety"asacriticalthreat.)
Anecdotally,foryears,therehavebeensignsthatasmallyetvocalsegmentofU.S.societyviewedPutininapositive
lightor,attheleast,thoughthisnegativereputationwasoverblownorsomehowhypocritical.StephenF.Cohen,awriterfor
theNationmagazine,isoneexampleofaleft-leaningjournalistwhohaspushedbackagainstcriticismofPutinoftendrawinghis
owncriticsintheprocess.
WhathasbeenmoreobviouslyapparentistheviewofPutinfromsomecornersoftherightwing.Attimes,thetonehasappeared
tobesardonic,suchaswhenright-wingbloggingstarMattDrudgelabeledhim"theleaderofthefreeworld"in2013,ormore
genuinelycontemplative,suchaswhenconservativewriterPatBuchananwroteacolumnaskingwhetherPutinwas"oneofus?"
...
...Putin'simagehasbeencraftedbyyearsoffocusgroupsandhighlypaidPRconsultants.
...
JacekSaryusz-Wolski
Competitioncommissioner@vestagerselectivelytough,hardonWesterncompanies,weakonGazprom'sgangster
conduct
http://www.politico.eu/article/vestager-gets-mugged-by-brussels-reality/
PaulNiland
Thanks@OSCE_SMMfor(finally)statingwhichsideisresponsibleforcertain#Minskobligationbreaches.
OSCE
LatestfromOSCEmonitors@Ukraine:@OSCE_SMMfreedomofmovementrestricted9times,allinnon-govt
controlareashttp://bit.ly/2anOmMH
"Ceasefire"inAleppobrokeredbyKerry"Ilovaisk-2"
RussiaPromisesExitCorridorsforRebels,CiviliansinAleppo(WSJ)
RussiaandtheSyriangovernmentwillallowoppositionfightersandcivilianstoleave
Senttime: 07/30/201608:30:07AM
FW:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-29]RUAirstrikes
Subject:
['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUofUnderminingUAPeacePlan...
Sent:Friday,July29,20169:02PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-29]RU
Airstrikes['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUofUnderminingUAPeace
Plan...
Subject:[LATEJULYFRIDAYNITERUN]FPIConf.CallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections..[JDDDII7-
29]RUAirstrikes['HumanitarianconvoysalaDonbas'tofollowinAleppo].[ODDDII]USDiplomatsAccuseRUof
UnderminingUAPeacePlanDTRUResetIdeasBackedbyNation'sSC..[PC]DNCHackerDIDworkforRU..[ANT/F]
RUDuma&VolynRUtrollswithnewtasksAmericanswhothinkVladisOKRUPromisesExitCorridorsforRebs/Civiliansin
Aleppo[asktheUAsoldiersinIlovaiskaboutthat]
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Subject:FPIConferenceCallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections
To:walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FollowandSupportFPI
FPIConferenceCallWrap-Up:RussianInterferenceinForeignElections
Yesterday,FPIhostedaconferencecalltodiscussRussianinterferenceinforeignelections,toincludeitsreportedhackoftheDemocratic
NationalCommittee.ThespeakersonthecallwereDavidJ.KrameroftheMcCainInstitute,PatrikMaldreofRetelPartners,andHannahThoburn
oftheHudsonInstitute.FPIbelievesthatthefollowinginsightssharedbytheexpertswillbeespeciallyusefultolawmakersandtheirstaffaswell
asallthoseinunderstandingtheimplicationsofRussiascyberactivitiesandinterferenceinforeignelections.
AfullrecordingoftheconferencecallisalsoavailableontheFPIwebsite.
RussianCyberActivities
Russiahasbeenreallydevelopingoffensivecybercapabilitiesformanyyears.Thesethreatgroups,manysecuritycompaniesfollowthese,
obviouslytheintelligenceagenciesaswell.Theyreallyconsistofprofessional,veryskilledpractitionerswhosedayjobistocarryoutthese
attacks.Theyreceivespecificordersonwhichinstitutionstotargetandwhatkindofinformationisneeded.PatrikMaldre
Thisparticularthreatactorhasbeenattackingavarietyofcountries.ItwasthesameFancyBearmalwareusedintheUkrainecentralelection
commissionservers,FrenchTVattacks,alotofdifferentattackshavebeenassociatedwiththis.Thesearethreatactorsthatareconducting
multipleoperationsatthesametime.Theirmalwaremightbepresentindozensifnothundredsoforganizationsatthemoment.Butitsawhole
differentstorywhentheystartusingthistoovertlyattackanelectioncycle.PatrikMaldre
AverylargeportionoftheUkrainianpowergridwasdisabledbyamalwareattackjustlastwinter.Sothesearethekindsofthingsthathavebeen
happening,andtheyhaventreallymadeitintotheU.S.publicconsciousness,butwerenowstartingtoseethisisbecomingveryrelevanttothe
survivalandthehealthyoperationofourowndemocracy.HannahThoburn
ImplicationsoftheDNCHack
Tosendthesedocumentsorthisinformationtomediaoutletsortopublishthempubliclysignalsanintentnotjusttoknowandunderstand
thingsaboutthepoliticalprocess,butcruciallytoplayanactiveroleinit.Withthisdisclosure,theDNChackreallytransitionedfromespionage
intotherealmofinfluenceoperations.PatrikMaldre
Whatweveseeninthislatestcaseiswellbeyondgatheringintelligence.ThisisanefforttoataminimumdisrupttheU.S.politicalsystem,the
presidentialcampaign.PossiblythegoalistoembarrassonecandidateorsupportanotherbutIagreewithPatrikthatthisisanattackonthe
Americanpoliticalsystem,itsnotanattackontheDNC,itcouldhavebeenanattackontheRNC,itcouldvebeenanattackonanybody.
DavidKramer
TheRussianMindset
RussiareallyaimstoweakenanddestabilizetheU.S.anddividethetransatlanticinstitutionsandalliancesthatbindustogetherandsoitsreally
nosecretatthispointthatRussiahasincorporatedsignalsintelligenceandcybercapabilitiesintothebroaderarsenalthatitusestoachieve
thesegoals.PatrikMaldre
[Russians]say,lookyouremeddlinginourelectionssoweregoingtodothesamethingtoyou.ItsveryinterestingbecausewhattheRussians
conceiveofasU.S.meddlingisentirelydifferent.Itisessentiallysupportingafoundationthatmonitorselectionsandcallsforfreeandfair
elections.ThatstheRussianideaofU.S.meddlinginanelection.HannahThoburn
WeneedtounderstandthekindofRussiaweretalkingaboutthesedays,whichisaRussiathatwasverypleasedtoseetheflowofrefugees
intoEurope,exacerbatingarefugeecrisisthereaRussiathathassupportedthemurderousAssadregimeinSyria,alongwithIranaRussiathat
hasinvadeditsneighbors,Ukrainestartingin2014,Georgia,2008.Theydemonizeus,theyvilifyus,theythreatenus.Theytalkaboutusing
nuclearweapons.Theybuzzouraircraftandourships.Andsothisisnotabenignregimeintheleast.AndIthinkwehavetolookatthishacking
incidentagainstthatbackdrop,thatthisisjustthelatestofmanyverydisturbingdevelopmentsweveseencomingoutofMoscow.David
Kramer
RussianInterferenceinEuropeanElections
ItisreallyincentralandEasternEuropethattheyvereallybeenabletopracticeandhonethesetechniquesandyourenowstartingtoseethat
theyrecomfortableenoughwiththemtostarttoexportthemtootherpartsoftheworld.HannahThoburn
[Russia]hasprovideddirectopensupportforMarineLePeninFranceinthehopethatthatsupportwouldboostherstandinginFrance.It
supportedforcesinGreeceandItaly.SoRussianinterferenceinothercountriespoliticsandelectionsisnotanewphenomenonandithasmoved
beyondjustRussiasimmediateborders.DavidKramer
IvearguedforalongtimethatPutinsgreatestexportiscorruption.Butinordertoexportit,wehavetoimportit.Andsoweinthewestneedto
doamuchbetterjobofcleaningupourownsystems,ofrestoringasenseofshameandhonourthatseemtohavedisappeared.Itshouldntbe
acceptabletoopenlytakeRussianmoney,itshouldntbeacceptabletocovertlytakeRussianmoneyandyetthatdoesseemtobehappeningin
oursystems.DavidKramer
PotentialWesternResponses
Forstarters,assumingweareconfidentthatRussiawasbehindthishackingweshouldpubliclysayso.Beyondthatthereareanumberof
optionsthatcouldincludeacyberattackofsomesort,itcouldincludegoingafterindividualsintheseagencies,sanctioningthem,makingsure
alliesareonboard.DavidKramer
TheUSgovernmentandotherwesterngovernmentsreallywanttokeeptheir[offensivecyber]capabilitiesunderwrapsjustbecauseassoonas
thetechnicalcharacteristicsofthesecapabilitiesareknown,opponentscantakeactiontoreducetheireffectivenessormakethemnotworkatall.
Thereareoffensivecapabilitiestouse,thequestionis,doesthisparticularcasegetoverthethresholdneededtotriggeraresponse.Patrik
Maldre
RussiansgetmostoftheirnewsandinformationfromTVandsotakingovertelevisionwasthewayforPutintomakesurehehadcontrolover
thewayRussiansreceivetheirnewsandinformation.We,inmyview,shouldnotengageincounter-propaganda,weshouldsupportfact-based
journalismtohelpgetnewsandinformationinsideRussiaaswelltoRussian-speakingpopulationsandcountriesalongRussiasbordertolet
themknowwhatsreallyhappeninginsidetheircountry.DavidKramer

AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative
FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromotean
activeU.S.foreignpolicycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthe
challengesofthe21stcentury,andstrengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisled
byExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoardofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visit
ourwebsiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.
Subject:FW:R'sairstrikesinS[yria][ED:Alsonotethe'humanitarianconvoysRUisproposingforAleppo..callit
"DONBASII"]
Cc:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
From:ThomasHHenriksen[mailto:thomash@stanford.edu]
To:JohnBDunloppaulroderickgregory
Subject:R'sairstrikesinS
http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russianairstrikessyriajune18july132016
Russian Airstrikes in Syria: June 18 July 13, 2016

...
www.understandingwar.org
Russia set conditions for the proposal through a calculated expansion

and subsequent tapering of its air campaign throughout June and July
2016.
Subject:Ukraine:RFE/RL,NYT
Twomoreforyourweekendreadingwellworthit.
RFE/RL
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-us-diplomats-russia-undermining-peace-plan/27888327.html
July29,2016
U.S.DiplomatsAccuseRussiaOfUnderminingUkrainePeacePlan
byRobertCoalson
TwotopU.S.diplomatsworkingtoresolvetheconflictineasternUkrainehaveaccusedRussiaofcontinuingtosupplyseparatist
fighterswithfuelandweaponsandcreatinga"deterioratingsecuritysituation"intheregionthatisasbadasitwasayearago.
AmbassadorDanielBaer,headoftheU.S.missiontotheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),andU.S.
AmbassadortoUkraineGeoffreyPyattmadethestatementsduringaJuly29telephonicpressbriefingfromVienna.
ThebriefingcameonedayaftertheheadoftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)inUkraine,ErtugrulApakan,and
OSCEspecialrepresentativeonUkraineMartinSajdikbriefedtheOSCEPermanentCouncilonthesituation.
BaersaidtheUnitedStatesandotherOSCEmemberswereincreasinglyconcernedbywhattheyseeasadisconnectbetween
Russia'swordsanditsactionsregardingtheconflict.
"Weseecontinuedresupplyofweaponsandfightersweseecontinuedprovocationstokeeptheconflictgoingweseecontinued
restrictionsoftheSMManditsmonitorsweseecontinuedshoot-downsofSMMUAVs[drones]aftertheyhaveseenRussian
heavyweaponryinplaceswhereitshouldn'tbe,"Baersaid.
"Andso,themessagethatwasdeliveredtotheRussianFederationyesterdaybymany,manyparticipatingstatesinthe[OSCE]
PermanentCouncilisthatitistimetomatchyourwordswithaction."
Pyattstressedthesamepoint,sayingthatRussia'scontinuedmaterialsupportofseparatistfightersineasternUkrainewas"driving
theconflict."
"Ratherthanterminatingthisconflict,Russia'sactionsarehavingtheeffectofescalatingitonceagain,"Pyattsaid.
TheambassadorsalsoaccusedRussiaoffailingtoimplementtheMinskagreementthatwassignedinSeptember2014andwhich,
alongwithasecondagreementsignedinFebruary2015,issupposedtoprovidearoadmapforresolvingthecrisis.
PyattsaidRussiahadfailedtowithdrawtroopsandequipment,fullyimplementthecease-fireenvisionedundertheMinsk
agreements,andreleaseallhostages.
BaersaidthattheMinskaccordshad"allofthestepsthatarenecessary"toendtheconflict.
"Wehaveknownwhatneedstobedonefortwoyearsnow,"hesaid."Theproblemisnotinsolvingsomesortofdifficultpuzzle.
Thisisnotapuzzle.Theproblemispoliticalwill."
BaeraddedthattheU.S.positiononnotrecognizingRussia's2014annexationoftheUkrainianBlackSeapeninsulaofCrimea
remainedunchanged.
"Apointthatwehavemadehere[attheOSCE]whenRussianrepresentativessaytheywanttohaveaconversationaboutthe
futureofEuropeansecurityisthatanyconversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecuritywillhavetostartwithCrimea,"Baer
said.
AccordingtotheUnitedNations,morethan9,400peoplehavebeenkilledinfightingbetweenUkrainiansecurityforcesand
Russia-backedmilitantsineasternUkrainesinceApril2014.
TheNewYorkTimes
Trump'sRussiaResetIdeasAlarmingAllies,ManyinUS
[ED:ButtheAPcrowdwritingthearticleapparentlythinksthattheideasareworthyofconsideration]
JUSTLOOKATTHEFOLLOWINGQUOTEFROMTHEARTICLE.Ol'SteveCohen,furtherleftthanBernie,is
complimentarytotheDonald!!W'atBUpWit'T'at????.:
ButStevenCohen,professoremeritusofRussianstudiesatPrincetonandNewYorkUniversity,creditsTrumpforhoming
inonissuesthatareripefordiscussion.HesaidthatwhileTrumptalks"elliptically"and"justcan'twonk,"theGOP
nominee"inhisownwayseemstobeadvocatingdetente,"whichCohenseesasanadmirablegoal.
Cohensaidit'stimeforcriticstostopusing"McCarthyite"languagetodemonizeTrumpandhaveaserious
discussionabouttheissueshe'sraising.
ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJULY29,2016,3:04P.M.E.D.T.
PHILADELPHIADonaldTrump'sflurryofoffhandremarksandabruptzingersonRussiapraisingVladimirPutin,
dismissingNATOhavejoltedtheworld,nottomentiontheU.S.presidentialcampaign.
WithRussia'sbehaviorrattlingnervesintheU.S.andabroad,theRepublicanpresidentialnomineeisaccusedofcozyinguptoa
"dictator."OfthreateningtheveryunderpinningsofAmerica'srelationshipwithEurope.Andofnaivet.
Yetforallthat,Trump'swordsareconsistentwithsomelong-heldU.S.views,manyexpertssay.TheideaoffosteringU.S.-
Russiancooperationisn'toutlandishafterall,HillaryClintontriedto"reset"relationswithRussiaassecretaryofstate.Andpast
U.S.administrationsofbothpartieshavequietlycomplainedthatotherNATOmembersshouldpaytheirsharetothealliance.
It'sreallyTrump'swayofexpressinghisviewsthathasshockedmanyforeignpolicyexperts.
OnWednesday,TrumpofferedthisvisionforrosierU.S.-Russianrelations:
"IwouldtreatVladimirPutinfirmlybutthere'snothingthatIcanthinkofthatI'dratherdothanhaveRussiafriendlyasopposed
tothewaytheyarerightnowsothatwecangoandknockoutISIStogetheralongwithotherpeopleandwithothercountries,"
hesaid."Wouldn'titbeniceifweactuallygotalongwithpeople?"
TrumpalsopraisedtheRussianpresidentforhaving"betterleadershipqualities"thanPresidentBarackObamaandindicatedhe'd
considerliftingsanctionsagainstMoscowandrecognizingRussia'sannexationofCrimea.
AsforNATO,TrumpsaidthebasicideaofthealliancewasOKbutthat"it'sgottobemodernized.Andcountriesthatwe're
protectinghavetopaywhatthey'resupposedtobepaying."
Daysearlier,hesuggestedthathewoulddecidewhethertoprotectNATOalliesagainstRussianaggressionbasedonwhetherthey
had"fulfilledtheirobligations"financially.
AndhisoffhandinvitationforRussiatohelpunearththedeletedemailsfromClinton'sStateDepartmentyearsappearedtoviolate
acardinalruleagainstforeignmeddlinginU.S.politics.
Foreignpolicyexpertsofallstripes"areleftslack-jawed"byTrump'spronouncements,saidDerekChollet,asenioradviseratthe
GermanMarshallFundandformerPentagonofficialintheObamaadministration.
"Helooksattheworldsolelythroughtheprismofbusinesstransactions,talkingaboutalliesasifthey'reAtlanticCitycontractors
thathecanbilk,"saidChollet,whospokeoutinfavorofClintonduringherDemocraticprimarycampaignagainstSen.Bernie
Sanders.

ButStevenCohen,professoremeritusofRussianstudiesatPrincetonandNewYorkUniversity,creditsTrumpforhominginon
issuesthatareripefordiscussion.HesaidthatwhileTrumptalks"elliptically"and"justcan'twonk,"theGOPnominee"inhisown
wayseemstobeadvocatingdetente,"whichCohenseesasanadmirablegoal.
Cohensaidit'stimeforcriticstostopusing"McCarthyite"languagetodemonizeTrumpandhaveaseriousdiscussionaboutthe
issueshe'sraising.
AndyetDemocratsarenottheonlyonestorecoilatTrump'sremarks.SenateMajorityLeaderMitchMcConnell,amongother
topRepublicans,swiftlyexpresseddisagreementwiththenomineeandpromisedthatotherNATOmemberscancountontheU.S.
todefendthem.
DavidKramer,whowasaStateDepartmentofficialintheGeorgeW.Bushadministration,saidheandmanyotherforeignpolicy
thinkerssee"aRussiathatposesathreat.He(Trump)seesaleaderinVladimirPutinwhohethinkshecandevelopagood
relationshipwith."
Trump'scommentaboutCrimeaandRussiansanctions,saysKramer,sent"terriblesignalsandwillbeinterpretednotonlyasa
betrayalbytheUnitedStatesofouralliesbutasrewardingaggressivebehaviorbyRussia."
Inthe2012presidentialcampaign,thedynamicoverRussiawasswitched:RepublicannomineeMittRomneythencriticized
ObamaforbeingtooaccommodatingtowardRussia.AndDemocratsweretheonesfaultingRomneyforsayingthatRussiawas
America's"No.1geopoliticalfoe."
Obama'searlyhopeforthatresetwithMoscowhadlargelyevaporatedevenbeforeRussia's2014annexationofUkraine's
CrimeanpeninsulaanditsmilitaryinterventionineasternUkraine,whichunnervedcountriesonNATO'seasternflankthatfearthey
alsomaybetargetsofRussianintimidationoraggression.
Againstthatbackdrop,Trump'sremarksraisingdoubtsabouthonoringU.S.NATOcommitmentscreatedaninternationaluproar.
JulianneSmith,aformerdeputynationalsecurityadvisertoVicePresidentJoeBiden,saidTrumpdoesn'tseemtograspthe
complexitiesoftheU.S.relationshipwithRussia,reflectingbothinexperienceandalackofstrongadvisers.
"It'snotaquestionofwhetherPutinisgoodorbad,"shesaid."It'sabouthandlingaverydelicateandvolatilesituationthatcango
sourveryquickly."
YetothersnotethateventhecurrentObamaadministrationdependsonRussiaandseeksitshelpwithmanyworldcrises.

InSyria,despitedeepmutualfrustration,theU.S.andRussiaaretryingtoworktogethertoendafive-yearcivilwarthathasledto
globalterrorismfears.They'reevendiscussingamilitaryallianceagainsttheIslamicStategroup.CooperationextendstotheIran
nucleardeal,NorthKoreaandmore.
___
AssociatedPresswritersJillColvininToledo,Ohio,andBradleyKlapper,RobertBurnsandDebRiechmanninWashington
contributedtothisreport.
From:PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>
Subject:'DNCHacker'Unmasked:HeReallyWorksforRussia,ResearchersSay-Slashdot
To:
http://it.slashdot.org/story/16/07/26/180204/dnc-hacker-unmasked-he-really-works-for-russia-researchers-say
ThehackerwhoclaimedtocompromisetheDNCsworehewasRomanian,butnewinvestigationshowsheworkeddirectlyfor
RussiaPresidentVladimirPutin'sgovernmentinMoscow.TheDailyBeastreports:Thehackerwhoclaimstohavestolen
emailsfromtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandprovidedthemtoWikiLeaksisactuallyanagentoftheRussian
governmentandpartofanorchestratedattempttoinfluenceU.S.mediacoveragesurroundingthepresidentialelection,a
securityresearchgroupconcludedonTuesday.Theresearchers,atArlington,Va.-basedThreatConnect,tracedtheself-
describedRomanianhackerGuccifer2.0backtoanInternetserverinRussiaandtoadigitaladdressthathasbeenlinked
inthepasttoRussianonlinescams.Farfrombeingasingle,sophisticatedhacker,Guccifer2.0ismorelikelyacollection
ofpeoplefromthepropagandaarmoftheRussiangovernmentmeanttodeflectattentionawayfromMoscowastheforce
behindtheDNChacksandleaksofemails,theresearchersfound.ThreatConnectisthefirstknowngroupofexpertsto
linktheself-proclaimedhackertoaRussianoperation,amidstanongoingFBIinvestigationandapresidential
campaignrockedbythereleaseofDNCemailsthathaveembarrassedseniorpartyleadersandinflamedintraparty
tensionsturningtheDemocraticNationalConvention.Theemailsrevealedthatpartyinsidersplottedwaystoundermine
Sen.BernieSanders'presidentialbid.Theresearchersattheaforementionedsecurityfirmarebasingtheirconclusiononthree
signals:thehackerusedRussiancomputerstoeditPDFfiles,healsousedRussianVPN--andotherinternetinfrastructurefrom
thecountry,andthathewasunabletospeakRomanian.
Subject:RUtorecognizeVolhyniaasgenocide/RUpro-Trumptrolls/TheAmericanswhothinkPutinisntsobad(WP)/+
To:
[ED:TheDumaDeclarationontheVolynTragedyas'Genocide'isproofpositivethatthecurrentPL-UAcontroversy
hasa"RUpoliticaltechnologicaltail"attachedbutmorepiquantisthegallofKremlin.givenitssilenceaboutthe
HOLODOMORforover80years]
RussianStateDumaalsosuggeststorecognizeVolhyniaMassacreasgenocide
http://uatoday.tv/politics/russian-state-duma-also-suggests-to-recognize-volhynia-massacre-as-genocide-706421.html
"TheStateDumaoftheFederalAssemblyoftheRussianFederationsendsitssincerecondolencestothePolish
peopleinconnectionwithanationaltragedy,andexpressesitsprofoundsolidaritywiththeSejmoftheRepublicof
PolandontheissueofrecognitionofthecrimescommittedbytheUkrainiannationalistsontheterritoryofVolynas
genocide,"
ItlookslikeRussiahiredinternettrollstoposeaspro-TrumpAmericans
http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-internet-trolls-and-donald-trump-2016-7
TheAmericanswhothinkVladimirPutinisntsobad
ByAdamTaylorJuly28
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/07/28/the-americans-who-think-vladimir-putin-isnt-so-bad/
...
FionaHill,anexpertonRussiawhoco-authoredabiographyofPutin,saysthatonarecentU.S.booktourshewasstruckby
howpositivepeoplewereaboutPutin."There'salotofadmirationforPutin,"HillsaidThursday."It'sgrudging,butpeopleseehim
asoneofthoselarger-than-lifecharacters."
...
AmorerecentpollhasevensuggestedthatPutinhaslowernegativeratingsthanTrumporClinton.Evenifplentyof
peopledonotlikePutin,it'spossiblethatnotthatmanyviewhimasamajorthreat.InaGalluppollfromFebruary,just39percent
ofAmericanswerefoundtoviewRussia'smilitarypowerasacriticalthreat.Thiswasfarbehindthetop-rankedfear,international
terrorism,which79percentofAmericanslistedasacriticalthreat.(Also,73percentrankedcyberterrorism"theuseof
computerstocausedisruptionorfearinsociety"asacriticalthreat.)
Anecdotally,foryears,therehavebeensignsthatasmallyetvocalsegmentofU.S.societyviewedPutininapositive
lightor,attheleast,thoughthisnegativereputationwasoverblownorsomehowhypocritical.StephenF.Cohen,awriterfor
theNationmagazine,isoneexampleofaleft-leaningjournalistwhohaspushedbackagainstcriticismofPutinoftendrawinghis
owncriticsintheprocess.
WhathasbeenmoreobviouslyapparentistheviewofPutinfromsomecornersoftherightwing.Attimes,thetonehasappeared
tobesardonic,suchaswhenright-wingbloggingstarMattDrudgelabeledhim"theleaderofthefreeworld"in2013,ormore
genuinelycontemplative,suchaswhenconservativewriterPatBuchananwroteacolumnaskingwhetherPutinwas"oneofus?"
...
...Putin'simagehasbeencraftedbyyearsoffocusgroupsandhighlypaidPRconsultants.
...
JacekSaryusz-Wolski
Competitioncommissioner@vestagerselectivelytough,hardonWesterncompanies,weakonGazprom'sgangster
conduct
http://www.politico.eu/article/vestager-gets-mugged-by-brussels-reality/
PaulNiland
Thanks@OSCE_SMMfor(finally)statingwhichsideisresponsibleforcertain#Minskobligationbreaches.
OSCE
LatestfromOSCEmonitors@Ukraine:@OSCE_SMMfreedomofmovementrestricted9times,allinnon-govt
controlareashttp://bit.ly/2anOmMH
"Ceasefire"inAleppobrokeredbyKerry"Ilovaisk-2"
RussiaPromisesExitCorridorsforRebels,CiviliansinAleppo(WSJ)
RussiaandtheSyriangovernmentwillallowoppositionfightersandcivilianstoleave
From: DavidKramer<djkramerwdc@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/30/201608:00:39AM
Subject: Re:impassionedneoconcrusader(akaDavidKramer)
Icanretirenow!
SentfrommyiPhone
OnJul30,2016,at9:02AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/the-new-mccarthys-attack-trump-russia-17188
TheNewMcCarthysAttackTrumpon
Russia
<mccarthy.jpg>
DonaldTrumpbringsmanydefectstohisnewroleastheGOPstandard-bearer.Suchdefectshaveled
Trumpsopponentstomakeallegationsthatrangefromhystericaltosleazy.Intheformercategoryare
thegrowingnumberofspeechesandarticlesthatimply(andinsomecasesoutrightassert)thatTrumpis
aclosetNazi.InthelattercategoryaretheevenmorerapidlymountingallegationsthatheisaRussian
sycophant,ifnotaRussianagent.ThatsmearconstitutesanewMcCarthyism.Anditisespeciallyironic
thatliberalDemocrats,theprincipalvictimsoftheoriginalMcCarthyismduringtheearlyColdWar,are
themainperpetratorsthistime.
ThethemeofTrumpasaRussianagent(aSiberiancandidate)receivedamajorboostfollowinghis
commentsaboutthemassivehackingoftheDemocraticNationalCommitteese-mails.Trumpopined
thatiftheRussianswereengagedinsuchsystematiccyberespionage,itreflectedalackofrespectfor
thecurrentpoliticalleadershipoftheUnitedStates.ThatisafamiliarGOPtrope,andanespecially
unfaironeinthiscase.Nationswithgoodcyberespionagecapabilitiesspyonalltargetstheydeem
relevant,andhavedonesoformanyyears.TheUnitedStateshasevenbeencaughtspyingonclose
alliessuchasGermany.
Trumpsstatementmighthavepassedwithminimalnotice,buthethenaddedsarcasticallythatifthe
Russianshaddoneso,hehopedthattheyhadHillaryClintonsthirtythousandmissinge-mails.His
criticsimmediatelyspunthatcommenttosuggestthathewasurgingRussiatoundermineAmericas
security.Thatisapreposterousinterpretation.IfanyoneputU.S.securityatrisk,itwasClinton,who
hadusedaprivatee-mailserverwithouttherobustsecurityfeaturesofgovernmentservers.Andsince
shehasalreadytestifiedthatthereisnothinginthosemissinge-mailsofasensitivenature,howcould
RussiaspossessionofsuchworthlessitemsdamageAmericassecurity?
NowtheWashingtonPostreportsthattwodozenGOPforeign-policyhawkshaveinditedaletterto
congressionalleadersdemandinganinvestigationintothehackingofDNCemails.Theysaythatthisis
notapartisanissuebutanassaultontheintegrityoftheentireAmericanpoliticalprocess.Itistrue
thatthesignershavedifferentreasonsforwritingCongress.SomelikeRet.Gen.MichaelHaydenhave
alongstandingconcernaboutcyberattacksfromabroad.Buttheanimatingspiritbehindtheletteris
DavidKramer,animpassionedneoconcrusader.AnothersigneristheprominentneoconElliott
Abrams.Theoverallimpressionleftbehindbytheletteristhatitpreciselywhatthesignersallegeitisnot
adefactoattempttodamagetheTrumpcampaign.ThefactisthattheFBIisalreadyinvestigatingthe
DNCemailhack.Thereisnocogentreasonforacongressionalinvestigation,otherthananattemptto
politicizetheevent.
ThebarrageagainstTrumpforthatcommentisjustpartofalargeroffensive.Trumphasangered
advocatesofanewColdWaragainstRussiaonnumerousoccasions.Hehasstatedthathebelieveshis
administrationcouldgetalongwellwithVladimirPutin.HequestionedNATOsexpansiontoRussias
doorstepandhintedthatthealliancesmilitarymaneuversinEasternEuropemightbeneedlessly
provocative.HehasstatedthattheEuropeancountries,ratherthantheUnitedStates,shoulddealwith
anyproblemstheymighthaveregardingRussiasactionsinUkraine.Thoseandothercommentshave
causedcriticstobrandTrumpasaPutinstooge.
Pages
From: PaulGoble<paul.goble@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/30/201604:41:31AM
To: PaulGoble<Paul.Goble@gmail.com>
BCc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FourWindowsonEurasiaforJuly30,2016
1.KyivShouldNotGiveAgrmenttoMoscowsProposedAmbassador,OgryzkoSays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/07/kyiv-should-not-give-agrement-to.html
2.TrumpisPutinsMostUsefulIdiotBecauseHeBelievesWhatHeSays,PiontkovskySays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/07/trump-is-putins-most-useful-idiot.html
3.HasThereBeenanIslamizationofRadicalismRatherthanaRadicalizationofIslam?
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/07/has-there-been-islamization-of.html
4.OrthodoxyEvenMoreDividedinRussiathaninUkraine,ChurchAnalystPointsOut
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/07/orthodoxy-even-more-divided-in-russia.html
Senttime: 07/30/201602:40:02AM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Subject: kindawhatIwasgettingatonthephone(althoidon'tmuchcareforthisguy)
Thisisanextraordinarypoliticalmoment.AnyreasonableRepublicanpresidential
contenderotherthanTrumpprobablywouldbebeatingClintonhandily.Any
reasonableDemocraticcontenderotherthanClintonprobablywouldbebeatingTrump
handily.Theparties,intheirwisdom,havechosentheuntrustedagainsttheunstable,
theuninspiringagainsttheunfit.Takeyourpick,andtakeyourchances.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-choice-between-the-uninspiring-and-the-unfit/2016/07/29/9fab8178-55aa-11e6-
b7de-dfe509430c39_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-e%3Ahomepage%2Fstory
Senttime: 07/29/201609:53:09AM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-Russiacooperationin
Subject:
Syriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMF...
Sent:Thursday,July28,201610:10PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-Russia
cooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMF...
Date:Fri,Jul29,2016at1:09AM
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:
AttemptatU.S.-RussiacooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMFUNNY]BBC
News:RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid
From:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Date:Thu,Jul28,2016at8:18PM
Subject:Fwd:Posted:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Walter-ofpossibleinterest.
Best,
David
SentfrommyiPhone
Beginforwardedmessage:
From:BenjaminSoloway<benjamin.soloway@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:July28,2016at7:19:09PMEDT
To:Shadow<Shadow@foreignpolicy.com>,Shadowlist<Shadowlist@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:Posted:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
BYDAVIDJ.KRAMER
JULY28,2016-7:17PM

ForgetwhetherRussiashackingoftheDemocraticNationalCommitteecomputersystemandreleaseofthe
committeesemailstoWikiLeaksweredesignedtobenefitRepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump.Trytooverlook,
temporarilyatleast,thecontentofthoseemails,whichhaveinfuriatedBernieSanderssupporters.Putasidepartisanpolitics
forjustonemomentandstoptothinkwhathashappened:AccordingtopreliminaryassessmentsbytheU.S.government
andprivateanalysts,Russianintelligenceagenciesbrokeintothecomputersystemofoneofthetwomainpoliticalpartiesin
theUnitedStatesandreleasedwhattheystolethroughWikiLeaks.
Suchanactgoeswaybeyondmereintelligencegathering.ItwasclearlydesignedtohurttheUnitedStatesanddamageour
credibility.ItmayalsohavebeenmeanttoundermineDemocraticpresidentialnomineeHillaryClintonRussianPresident
VladimirPutin,ashasbeenreported,isnotahugefanofher,basedonhisaccusationsofherresponsibilityforprotestsin
RussiainDecember2011.ThehackmayhavebeenorchestratedtoboostTrump.Infact,itmaywellbeacombinationof
thesethreethings.ButthebottomlineisthattheRussianshaveattackednottheDNC,orClinton,buttheUnitedStates,our
politicalsystem,andourpresidentialelectioncampaign,period!
Tobeclear,hackingintotheDNCsemailsisnotaone-offmove.Russialaunchedacyber-attackagainstEstoniain2007and
triedtomesswiththeresultsofUkraineselectionin2014.TheKremlinstrollswreakhavoconWesternjournalistsand
websites.
ButRussianactionsgowellbeyondtherealmoftechnology.Withinthepasteightyears,Russiahasinvadedtwoofits
neighbors:Ukrainestartingin2014andGeorgiain2008,andillegallyannexedCrimea.Thecountryillegallymaintainsa
trooppresenceintheseparatistregionsofSouthOssetia,AbkhaziainGeorgia,andinMoldovasTransnistria.Itdoes
everythingitcantopreventitsneighborsfrommovingclosertoEuropebycorrupting,destabilizingand,ifnecessary,
invadingthem.Successful,reform-oriented,democraticneighbors,especiallyUkraine,afterall,couldbedangerous
alternativemodelstothesystemPutinoversees.
TogetherwithIran,thePutinregimehasintervenedmilitarilyinSyriatopropupthemurderousregimeofBasharal-Assad.
DespiteSecretaryofStateJohnKerrysfutileefforts,theUnitedStatesandRussiadonotworktowardscommoninterestsin
theMiddleEast.Instead,RussiabombssitesinSyriathattheUnitedStateshasurgedittoavoid.Russiahassolddangerous
missiledefensesystemstoIranandisstrikingupnewfriendshipswithlike-mindedregimesintheregion.
RussiarecklesslybuzzesAmericanandNATOaircraftandships,andthreatensEuropeannationsiftheyhostNATOsmissile
defensesystem.ItregularlydemonizestheWestandtheUnitedStatesinparticular,allegingthatwearethegreatestdanger
toRussiaandconjuringupnonsensicalWesternconspiracytheoriesagainsttheKremlin.Andifallthatwerenotenough,
PutinhaslaunchedtheugliestcrackdownonhumanrightsinsideRussiaindecades,withopponentsharassed,arrested,
evenkilledNGOscloseddownminoritygroupsdeniedtheirbasicrightsandRussianorphansdeniedlovinghomesinthe
UnitedStatesbecauseofPutinsspiteovertheMagnitskylegislation.
AftereachexampleofegregiousRussiangovernmentbehavior,Iaskmyself:Whendowesayenoughisenough?Howmany
moreUkrainiansmustdiethenumberisapproaching10,000duetoRussianaggression,beforewesaymoresanctionsare
warranted,notfewerachangethatTrumphashintedhemightsupport?HowmanymorecountriesmustPutininvade
beforewetreathimandhisregimeastheseriousthreatitis?Andhowmuchwillwelethiminterferewithourownelection
beforewedrawaline?
WhetherPutinisoperatingoutofstrengthorweaknessisaninterestingquestionbuttoalargedegreebesidethepoint.
Thetrackrecordcitedaboveisenoughproofoftheharmhecanandiscausing.Putinmaybetakinghiscountryoffacliff,
butweneedtomakesurehedoesnottakeothersplummetingwithhim.
ThisisnotatimetopineforchummyrelationswithPutinitisatimetoshowspineandstrengthandstanduptothedanger
heposes.
Photocredit:SASHAMORDOVETS/GettyImages
From:hunter@
Subject:BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-RussiacooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
AttemptatU.S.-Russiacooperation
in
Syriasuffersmajorsetbacks
GENEVA/WASHINGTON|BYTOMMILESANDJOHNWALCOTT
RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov(R)shakeshandswithU.S.Secretary
ofStateJohnKerryduringameetinginMoscow,Russia,July15,2016.
REUTERS/SERGEIKARPUKHIN
U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerry'sattempttoelicit
RussianmilitarycooperationinthefightagainstIslamic
StateinSyriasufferedtwopotentiallycripplingblowson
Thursday.
First,theSyrianarmysaidithadcutoffallsupplyroutes
intotheeasternpartofthecityofAleppo-Syria'smost
importantoppositionstronghold-andPresidentBashar
al-Assad'sgovernmentaskedresidentstoleavethecity.
Thatmove,U.S.officialsspeakingonconditionof
anonymitysaidonThursday,appearedtobeaneffortto
pre-emptaU.S.demandthatRussiaandSyriareopena
majorroadintothedividednortherncitybeforetalks
couldbeginoncreatingajointintelligencecenterto
coordinateairattacksagainstIslamicState.
ThenalQaeda'sSyrianbranchannouncedonThursdayit
wasterminatingitsrelationshipwiththeglobalnetwork
createdbyOsamabinLadenandchangingitsnameto
removewhatitcalledapretextbytheUnitedStatesand
othercountriestoattackSyrians.
AlthoughoneU.S.officialcalledit"achangeinname
only,"themovecomplicatestheAmericanproposalto
limittheRussiansandSyrianstotargetingonlyNusra
andIS,nototherrebelgroupssupportedbyWashington
anditsalliesinthecoalitionagainstIslamicState.
"BydisavowingitstiestoalQaeda-which,incidentally,it
didwithalQaeda'sblessing-Nusrahasmadeitharder
toisolateitfrommoremoderategroups,someofwhose
membersmayjoinitnowbecauseit'smorepowerful
thansomeofthegroupstheybelongtonow,"saidthe
official.
U.S.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaid
Washingtonhasbeenclearaboutitsconcernsoverthe
announcementofthehumanitariancorridorandthatits
viewoftheNusraFronthadnotchangeddespiteitsname
change.
"Butwealsoremaincommittedtotheproposalsreached
bytheUnitedStatesandRussiatobetterenforcethe
cessationofhostilitiesinSyriaandprovidethespace
neededforaresumptionofpoliticaltalks.Iffully
implementedingoodfaith,theycanachieveameasure
ofsuccessthathaseludedusthusfar,"Kirbytold
Reuters.
"Asthesecretarymadeclear,however,wearepragmatic
abouttheseefforts,andwewilllooktoRussiatomeetits
commitmentsaswewillmeetours.Thatwillbethe
primary,determiningfactorofsuccesshere,"headded.
FALTERINGPROPOSAL
ThetwinU.S.goalsinSyriahavebeenendingthe
violencethatalreadyhasclaimedsome400,000lives,
accordingtoUnitedNationsestimates,andseekinga
politicalprocesstoreplaceAssad,whomPresident
BarackObamahassaid"mustgo."
ButwhileWashingtonandMoscowhavebothexpressed
hopetheycanfindawaytocooperateagainstIS,Kerry's
proposalwasalreadyintroubleduetothecompeting
objectivesoftheColdWar-erafoesaswellasresistance
fromU.S.militaryandintelligenceofficials.
U.S.officialsquestionedRussianandSyrianclaimsthat
theiraiminevacuatingciviliansfromAleppowastoclear
thewayforhumanitarianassistancetoreachthe
besiegedcity,where200,000-300,000civiliansremain
withonlytwotothreeweeksoffoodonhand.
"Whywouldyouevacuateacitythatyouwantedtosend
humanitarianaidto?"askedoneofficial."Atfirstglance,
thatwouldappeartobeaunilateraleffortbyMoscowand
Assadtopre-emptKerry'sdemandforendingthesiegeof
Aleppobeforestartingnegotiationsonthelargerissues.If
theproposalisn'tdead,itseemstobeprettybadly
wounded."
U.N.SyriaenvoyStaffandeMisturawantsadealassoon
aspossiblesohecanrestartpeacetalkswithinamonth
andaidflowscanresume.
(ReportingbyTomMilesinGenevaandJohnWalcottin
Washington,additionalreportingbyArshadMohammed
editingbyGCrosse)
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:Editors'Picks
To:waz2102@columbia.edu
Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.

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Thursday,July28

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbestarticles.
Today,welookattheNusraFrontsfuture,Franceanti-IslamicStateefforts,and
NorwaysbirthdaygifttoFinland.

4 CONGRATULATIONS,PRESIDENTPUTIN:FPsChristianCaryl

onwhytheKremlinlovesTrump:Readmore

5 AGIFTFITFORFINLAND:Norwayissonicethatitwantstogive
Finlandamountainforitsbirthday,FPsSiobhnO'Grady
writes:Readmore

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arestrengtheningthecountry'seconomy?Anewonlineplatformcan
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ListenandsubscribetoFPpodcastsoniTunesandStitcher:here.
Subject:Thisisjusttoofunny:BBCNews:RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid[ED:Anyonesay:"RUSSKIEMYR=CHRISTIAN
TALIBAN"????]
Oh,please,it'sart.
However,thisisnotthefirsttimethatmasterpiecesofarthaverunintoreligiousobjectionstonudityofthehumanform.DuringtheReformation,eventheartworksofthe
greatmasterswerepaintedover.Duringrestorationworkcompletedtheselast20yearsorso,theoriginalpaintingshavebeenrevealed.Nopunintended.
Cher
RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid
Awomancomplainsthatthecopyoftheartist'sDavidharmschildren'sminds.
Disclaimer:TheBBCisnotresponsibleforthecontentofthisemail,andanythingwritteninthisemaildoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheBBC'sviewsoropinions.Pleasenotethatneithertheemail
addressnornameofthesenderhavebeenverified.
Senttime: 07/29/201609:53:09AM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-Russiacooperationin
Subject:
Syriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMF...
Sent:Thursday,July28,201610:10PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-Russia
cooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMF...
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN/ITEMSOFREALINTEREST]SG/DAVIDK:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage.[HU]BREAKINGSTORY:
AttemptatU.S.-RussiacooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks.[FPPICK]CHRISC:CONGRATSMR.PUTIN.[ANDACHERMFUNNY]BBC
News:RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid
From:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Fwd:Posted:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Walter-ofpossibleinterest.
Best,
David
SentfrommyiPhone
From:BenjaminSoloway<benjamin.soloway@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:July28,2016at7:19:09PMEDT
To:Shadow<Shadow@foreignpolicy.com>,Shadowlist<Shadowlist@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:Posted:RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
RussiasHackingIsOnlyPutinsLatestOutrage
BYDAVIDJ.KRAMER
JULY28,2016-7:17PM

ForgetwhetherRussiashackingoftheDemocraticNationalCommitteecomputersystemandreleaseofthe
committeesemailstoWikiLeaksweredesignedtobenefitRepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump.Trytooverlook,
temporarilyatleast,thecontentofthoseemails,whichhaveinfuriatedBernieSanderssupporters.Putasidepartisanpolitics
forjustonemomentandstoptothinkwhathashappened:AccordingtopreliminaryassessmentsbytheU.S.government
andprivateanalysts,Russianintelligenceagenciesbrokeintothecomputersystemofoneofthetwomainpoliticalpartiesin
theUnitedStatesandreleasedwhattheystolethroughWikiLeaks.
Suchanactgoeswaybeyondmereintelligencegathering.ItwasclearlydesignedtohurttheUnitedStatesanddamageour
credibility.ItmayalsohavebeenmeanttoundermineDemocraticpresidentialnomineeHillaryClintonRussianPresident
VladimirPutin,ashasbeenreported,isnotahugefanofher,basedonhisaccusationsofherresponsibilityforprotestsin
RussiainDecember2011.ThehackmayhavebeenorchestratedtoboostTrump.Infact,itmaywellbeacombinationof
thesethreethings.ButthebottomlineisthattheRussianshaveattackednottheDNC,orClinton,buttheUnitedStates,our
politicalsystem,andourpresidentialelectioncampaign,period!
Tobeclear,hackingintotheDNCsemailsisnotaone-offmove.Russialaunchedacyber-attackagainstEstoniain2007and
triedtomesswiththeresultsofUkraineselectionin2014.TheKremlinstrollswreakhavoconWesternjournalistsand
websites.
ButRussianactionsgowellbeyondtherealmoftechnology.Withinthepasteightyears,Russiahasinvadedtwoofits
neighbors:Ukrainestartingin2014andGeorgiain2008,andillegallyannexedCrimea.Thecountryillegallymaintainsa
trooppresenceintheseparatistregionsofSouthOssetia,AbkhaziainGeorgia,andinMoldovasTransnistria.Itdoes
everythingitcantopreventitsneighborsfrommovingclosertoEuropebycorrupting,destabilizingand,ifnecessary,
invadingthem.Successful,reform-oriented,democraticneighbors,especiallyUkraine,afterall,couldbedangerous
alternativemodelstothesystemPutinoversees.
TogetherwithIran,thePutinregimehasintervenedmilitarilyinSyriatopropupthemurderousregimeofBasharal-Assad.
DespiteSecretaryofStateJohnKerrysfutileefforts,theUnitedStatesandRussiadonotworktowardscommoninterestsin
theMiddleEast.Instead,RussiabombssitesinSyriathattheUnitedStateshasurgedittoavoid.Russiahassolddangerous
missiledefensesystemstoIranandisstrikingupnewfriendshipswithlike-mindedregimesintheregion.
RussiarecklesslybuzzesAmericanandNATOaircraftandships,andthreatensEuropeannationsiftheyhostNATOsmissile
defensesystem.ItregularlydemonizestheWestandtheUnitedStatesinparticular,allegingthatwearethegreatestdanger
toRussiaandconjuringupnonsensicalWesternconspiracytheoriesagainsttheKremlin.Andifallthatwerenotenough,
PutinhaslaunchedtheugliestcrackdownonhumanrightsinsideRussiaindecades,withopponentsharassed,arrested,
evenkilledNGOscloseddownminoritygroupsdeniedtheirbasicrightsandRussianorphansdeniedlovinghomesinthe
UnitedStatesbecauseofPutinsspiteovertheMagnitskylegislation.
AftereachexampleofegregiousRussiangovernmentbehavior,Iaskmyself:Whendowesayenoughisenough?Howmany
moreUkrainiansmustdiethenumberisapproaching10,000duetoRussianaggression,beforewesaymoresanctionsare
warranted,notfewerachangethatTrumphashintedhemightsupport?HowmanymorecountriesmustPutininvade
beforewetreathimandhisregimeastheseriousthreatitis?Andhowmuchwillwelethiminterferewithourownelection
beforewedrawaline?
WhetherPutinisoperatingoutofstrengthorweaknessisaninterestingquestionbuttoalargedegreebesidethepoint.
Thetrackrecordcitedaboveisenoughproofoftheharmhecanandiscausing.Putinmaybetakinghiscountryoffacliff,
butweneedtomakesurehedoesnottakeothersplummetingwithhim.
ThisisnotatimetopineforchummyrelationswithPutinitisatimetoshowspineandstrengthandstanduptothedanger
heposes.
Photocredit:SASHAMORDOVETS/GettyImages
From:hunter@
Subject:BREAKINGSTORY:AttemptatU.S.-RussiacooperationinSyriasuffersmajorsetbacks
AttemptatU.S.-Russiacooperation
in
Syriasuffersmajorsetbacks
GENEVA/WASHINGTON|BYTOMMILESANDJOHNWALCOTT
RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov(R)shakeshandswithU.S.Secretary
ofStateJohnKerryduringameetinginMoscow,Russia,July15,2016.
REUTERS/SERGEIKARPUKHIN
U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerry'sattempttoelicit
RussianmilitarycooperationinthefightagainstIslamic
StateinSyriasufferedtwopotentiallycripplingblowson
Thursday.
First,theSyrianarmysaidithadcutoffallsupplyroutes
intotheeasternpartofthecityofAleppo-Syria'smost
importantoppositionstronghold-andPresidentBashar
al-Assad'sgovernmentaskedresidentstoleavethecity.
Thatmove,U.S.officialsspeakingonconditionof
anonymitysaidonThursday,appearedtobeaneffortto
pre-emptaU.S.demandthatRussiaandSyriareopena
majorroadintothedividednortherncitybeforetalks
couldbeginoncreatingajointintelligencecenterto
coordinateairattacksagainstIslamicState.
ThenalQaeda'sSyrianbranchannouncedonThursdayit
wasterminatingitsrelationshipwiththeglobalnetwork
createdbyOsamabinLadenandchangingitsnameto
removewhatitcalledapretextbytheUnitedStatesand
othercountriestoattackSyrians.
AlthoughoneU.S.officialcalledit"achangeinname
only,"themovecomplicatestheAmericanproposalto
limittheRussiansandSyrianstotargetingonlyNusra
andIS,nototherrebelgroupssupportedbyWashington
anditsalliesinthecoalitionagainstIslamicState.
"BydisavowingitstiestoalQaeda-which,incidentally,it
didwithalQaeda'sblessing-Nusrahasmadeitharder
toisolateitfrommoremoderategroups,someofwhose
membersmayjoinitnowbecauseit'smorepowerful
thansomeofthegroupstheybelongtonow,"saidthe
official.
U.S.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaid
Washingtonhasbeenclearaboutitsconcernsoverthe
announcementofthehumanitariancorridorandthatits
viewoftheNusraFronthadnotchangeddespiteitsname
change.
"Butwealsoremaincommittedtotheproposalsreached
bytheUnitedStatesandRussiatobetterenforcethe
cessationofhostilitiesinSyriaandprovidethespace
neededforaresumptionofpoliticaltalks.Iffully
implementedingoodfaith,theycanachieveameasure
ofsuccessthathaseludedusthusfar,"Kirbytold
Reuters.
"Asthesecretarymadeclear,however,wearepragmatic
abouttheseefforts,andwewilllooktoRussiatomeetits
commitmentsaswewillmeetours.Thatwillbethe
primary,determiningfactorofsuccesshere,"headded.
FALTERINGPROPOSAL
ThetwinU.S.goalsinSyriahavebeenendingthe
violencethatalreadyhasclaimedsome400,000lives,
accordingtoUnitedNationsestimates,andseekinga
politicalprocesstoreplaceAssad,whomPresident
BarackObamahassaid"mustgo."
ButwhileWashingtonandMoscowhavebothexpressed
hopetheycanfindawaytocooperateagainstIS,Kerry's
proposalwasalreadyintroubleduetothecompeting
objectivesoftheColdWar-erafoesaswellasresistance
fromU.S.militaryandintelligenceofficials.
U.S.officialsquestionedRussianandSyrianclaimsthat
theiraiminevacuatingciviliansfromAleppowastoclear
thewayforhumanitarianassistancetoreachthe
besiegedcity,where200,000-300,000civiliansremain
withonlytwotothreeweeksoffoodonhand.
"Whywouldyouevacuateacitythatyouwantedtosend
humanitarianaidto?"askedoneofficial."Atfirstglance,
thatwouldappeartobeaunilateraleffortbyMoscowand
Assadtopre-emptKerry'sdemandforendingthesiegeof
Aleppobeforestartingnegotiationsonthelargerissues.If
theproposalisn'tdead,itseemstobeprettybadly
wounded."
U.N.SyriaenvoyStaffandeMisturawantsadealassoon
aspossiblesohecanrestartpeacetalkswithinamonth
andaidflowscanresume.
(ReportingbyTomMilesinGenevaandJohnWalcottin
Washington,additionalreportingbyArshadMohammed
editingbyGCrosse)

Sponsoredby

EDITORS'PICKS

Thursday,July28

Today,welookattheNusraFrontsfuture,Franceanti-IslamicStateefforts,and
NorwaysbirthdaygifttoFinland.

4 CONGRATULATIONS,PRESIDENTPUTIN:FPsChristianCaryl

onwhytheKremlinlovesTrump:Readmore

5 AGIFTFITFORFINLAND:Norwayissonicethatitwantstogive
Finlandamountainforitsbirthday,FPsSiobhnO'Grady
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heading:Readmore

Subject:Thisisjusttoofunny:BBCNews:RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid[ED:Anyonesay:"RUSSKIEMYR=CHRISTIAN
TALIBAN"????]
Oh,please,it'sart.
However,thisisnotthefirsttimethatmasterpiecesofarthaverunintoreligiousobjectionstonudityofthehumanform.DuringtheReformation,eventheartworksofthe
greatmasterswerepaintedover.Duringrestorationworkcompletedtheselast20yearsorso,theoriginalpaintingshavebeenrevealed.Nopunintended.
Cher
RussianstovoteoncoveringupMichelangelo'sDavid
Awomancomplainsthatthecopyoftheartist'sDavidharmschildren'sminds.
Disclaimer:TheBBCisnotresponsibleforthecontentofthisemail,andanythingwritteninthisemaildoesnotnecessarilyreflecttheBBC'sviewsoropinions.Pleasenotethatneithertheemail
addressnornameofthesenderhavebeenverified.
Senttime: 07/29/201609:08:57AM
FW:PutinstrikesAGAINinanapparentattempttohelphispartnerinBromance:"FBIprobessuspectedBREACHofanotherDemocratic
Subject:
organizationbyRussianHACKERS,"washingtonpost,.com,7/29
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:PutinstrikesAGAINinanapparentattempttohelphispartnerinBromance:"FBIprobessuspectedBREACHofanother
DemocraticorganizationbyRussianHACKERS,"washingtonpost,.com,7/29
RussiangovernmenthackershavebreachedthecomputersoftheDemocraticCongressional
CampaignCommitteeTheintrusionappearedtobecarriedoutbythesameRussianintelligence
servicethathackedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeearlierthisyearTheFBIisinvestigatingthis
breachaspartofabroaderprobeintohackingofpoliticalorganizations.TheDCCCintrusion
apparentlyispartofamuchbroadercampaignofpoliticalESPIONAGEbytheRussians.
And:MicahelCROWLEY,TRUMPandtheOLGARCH[DmitriRYBOLEVLEV]:[Trump]claimsnotiesto
Russia.Hereshowhemademillionsfromoneofitswealthiestmen,politico.edu,7/2911page
investigativearticle
And:GlennKessler,FactChecker:TrumpsclaimIhaveNOTHINGtodowithRUSSIA,
washingtonpost.com,7/28
TheTrumpOrganizationhaslongbeenintrestedinbusinessinRussiaTrumpsoldamansion[in
PalmBeach]in2008for$95milliontoRussianoligarchDmitryRybolovelev[Donald]TrumpJr.noted
thathetraveledtoRussiasixtimesin18monthsTheTrumporganizationhadpartneredwithAras
Agalarov,thesocalledTrumpofRussiaonaprojectinMoscowin2013thatdidntcometofruition
Theevidenceisclear,fromhisownwordsandthoseofhisassociatesthat[Trump]hasbeeneagerto
dobusinessinRussiaTheTrumpOrganizationsgeneralcounselalsoconfirmedthatthecompany
haslookedatdealsinRussiaWithoutaccesstoTrumpstaxreturnswhichhehasrefuseto
discloseitmaybeimpossibletotellwhetherhecurrentlyhasRussianassets.
And:Model,ultranationalistactivist,and[Putinite]StateDumacandidate[MariaKatasonova]plans
ANTICLINTONrallyoutsideUSembassyinMoscow,Meduza.io,7/28Englished.
Katasonova,whosmadevisitstoseparatistheldEasternUkraineandwrappedherselfinrebelflags,
haspublishedFacebookpostsinRussianandEnglishusingthehashtags#StopHillaryand
#CrookedHillary.
And:USWdiplomats[AmbassadorDaneilbaer,headoftheUSmissiontotheOSCE,andGeoffrey
Pyatt,USambassadortoUkraine]accuseRussiaofUNDERMININGpeaceplan,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27888327.html
And:CRIMEAhasbeenmorecompletelyabsorbedintoRussiaPESKOVannouncedon7/28thatthe
CrimeanFederalDistricthasbeenabsorbedintotheRussianSouthernFederalDistrict(gazeta.ru).

And:DariaLitvinova,PutinsgameofThrones:themeninEPAULETStakeover,
themoscowti9mes.com,7/29
And:DumadeputyDmitriiGUDKOVPutinhascarriedoutaCopdEtat:
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/dgudkov/18099954echo/
And:StanislavBELKOVSKII,Putin[now]trustsonlyhispersonalbodyguards,
http://mr7.ru/articles/136962
From: teagueeliza@aol.com
Senttime: 07/29/201606:25:59AM
Subject: Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
Dagestangetsamention
-----OriginalMessage-----
From:BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>
To:BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
CC:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>KlausSegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>KyleWilson
<krwilson66@icloud.com>RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>Elizabeth
Teague<teagueeliza@aol.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnolly
<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>PhilipHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>RodericLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>John
Besemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>DG
<davidjeglass@gmail.com>SiriolHugh-Jones<siriolhj@yahoo.co.uk>
Sent:Fri,29Jul201614:17
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
Uponconsultingtheinternet,IseethatYeltsinscored53.8percentofthesecond-roundvote,comparedtoZyuganov's40.3percent
(http://www.electoralgeography.com/new/ru/countries/r/russia/russia-presidential-election-1996.html).ThelatterpredictablywontheRed
Belt,andpartsofsouthernSiberia,butlostinmostotherplaces.Interestingly,helostinPrimoryeandKhabarovsk,wherethelocal
strongmenNazdratenkoandIshaevwereabletodeliverthevote,andinChechnya(militaryvote),Dagestan,andTatarstan(Shaimiev).
OnFriday,29July2016,13:53,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>wrote:
Dearfriends,
Theseareallfascinatingreminiscencesandinsights.
Formypart,IarrivedinMoscowasFirstSecretaryintheAustralianEmbassyafewdaysbeforetheDecember1995Dumaelections,
andlivedthroughthesix-monthpresidentialelectioncampaign.
Afewcomments,forwhatthey'reworth:
1.Yeltsin'spopularityratingincreasedfrom2-3percentinJanuary1996to,ifmemoryserves,53percentinthesecondroundofthe
presidentials(versusZyuganov's38percent).Aremarkablechangeinfortunes,tosaytheleast!
2.So,howdidhedidhedoit?Well,alltheoligarchsgotbehindhimsothattherewasamassivediscrepancyinfinancialoutreach.
Then,theelectronicmedia(controlledbyseveraloftheoligarchs)gaveblanketpositivecoveragetoYeltsin,andcorrespondingly
negativecoveragetoZyuganov.Oneparticularexamplecomestomind-thetwocandidates'respectivedancingperformances.Yeltsin
wasshownrockingandrollingonafinedayinRedSquareinfrontofayoung,enthusiasticaudiencehavingagreattime.Zyuganovwas
shownmakingadog'sdinnerofaRussianfolkdance.Hewasfilmedfromabove,sothateveryonecouldseehisbaldingpate(compared
toY'sfineheadofhair),andsweatingprofuselyfromhisarmpitsandotherorifices.Hisaudiencewasalsohiscore,clapped-outand
grumpyCommunistPartyconstituency.Thesymbolismcouldnothavebeenmorestark,andboydidtheelectronicmedialaborthe
point!
3.AfriendofminewasplayingtenniswithGusinskyaboutamonthbeforethefirstround.GusinskysaidtherewasasplitintheYeltsin
campaboutwhattodowiththepresidentialelections-whethertogoaheadwiththem,ortocancel/postponethem.The'siloviki'(I
know,notatermthatcameintofashionuntillater!)closetoYeltsin,namely,KorzhakovandSoskovets,wereallforcanningthe
electionsonthebasisthattheycouldn'triskZ.comingtopower.Chubais,however,wasstronglyoftheviewthathecoulddelivera
positiveresult,andthattosuspendtheelectoralprocesswouldbebothhighlydamagingandunnecessary.Asweknownow,hewas
abletopersuadeYeltsin.
4.Irememberatthetimethattheamountofelectoralfalsification(ballotstuffing,etc.)wasnotdeemedtobeespeciallysignificant.The
figurecirculatingwasintheorderof5percent-obviouslyimportantintheeventofaclosecontest,butnotenoughtoinfluence
proceedingsgiventhegeneralexpectationthatYeltsinwouldwinthesecondroundhandily.
5.Weretheelectionsfreeandfair?No.Infact,theformulationthenwasthattheelectionswere'free,butnotfair'.Interestingly,though,
adiplomaticcolleagueofminetoldmethathisEmbassy'slinewasthat'theelectionsshallbedeemedfair'.
6.PartofthecheatingcamefromthepretensethatYeltsinwasthisvigorous,dynamic,andforward-lookingleaderincontrasttoatired,
regressiveZyuganov.Theirony,ofcourse,isthatYeltsinwasalreadyextremelyill,andcollapsedsoonafterbeingre-elected(remember
theclassicformulation-'workingonpapers'),whereasZyuganov,regressivethoughheundoubtedlyremains,isstillverymuchwithus.
Bobo
OnFriday,29July2016,13:04,RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>wrote:
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.Isawacouple
ofZiuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?My
strongimpressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimto
win-theyweaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.Theyobviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcomethe
responsibilityofsortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.
OnthedayofthesecondrounditselfwewerehavingdinnerwithPiontkovski.Iaskedhimifhedvoted.Hesaidhe
hadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasnt
mybusinesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklater
mumblingsomethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthe
pollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassaying
thattheendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeedit
mightbesalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenotthe
answer:thescenariowhichworkedinseveralEastEuropeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hed
makesuretherewerenomoreelections.Whoknows?
AsforBobosdepressingviewofcurrentpoliticsthroughouttheworld,thatswhatyougetifyouwinaColdWar.IN
thiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstome
thatthelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormal
country(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunchaboveourweight.
On29Jul2016,at11:18,JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>wrote:
Stephen

DontforgetthatitwasMedvedevwhofocusedattentionontheissueofthe1996presidentialelectioninan
commentmadeataclosedmeetinginFebruary2012:
http://content.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2107565,00.html

Yes,theVoronezhmekhanicheskiizavod,amajorproducerofliquidfuelledrocketengines,thenandnow;afilial
oftheKhrunichevstatespacescienceproductioncentreoftheRoskosmosstatecorporation.Alsoinvolvednowin
importsubstitutionactivitiesinthefieldofequipmentfortheoilandgasindustry.

Julian#

From:StephenFortescue[mailto:s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au]
Sent:28July201623:00
To:segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de
Cc:JulianCooperRodricBraithwaiteKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLocarolinavendilpallinElizabethTeague
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalle
DG

Klaus,
Interesting.Thanksforthat.Iwouldhavesuspectedsomethingfishywasgoingoniftheydidn'ttrytogetyoudrunk.
Anumberofmywife'srelativescomefromVoronezh.OneofthemwasthechiefengineeroftheVoronezh
MekhanicheskiiZavod(Ithinkthat'sthename-anywaythebigdefenceplant),whobecametheheadofthelocal
privatisationagencyandhadalotofrespectforChubais.Idon'tremembertalkingtohimaboutYeltsin.Iimaginehe
wouldhavehadmixedfeelings,butnodoubtwhosesidehewouldhavebeenon.Heorganizedsomeinteresting
meetingsforme,whichImightgettheopportunitytodescribesomeothertime-andyouyourkolkhoz.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On28Jul2016,at22:59,prof.dr.klaussegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>wrote:

atthattime,iwasanofficialelectionobserverinvoronezh'(city)andoblast'(irmemeberacolorful
kolkhoz).
theosceandeuroparliamentdelegationsdidn'thavehardevoidenceoffalsificationsonelectionday.
unlessyoutakeattemptstomakeforeignobserversdrunkobverversasfalsifications(icouldresistthe
worst).
talkingaboutmediaimpactisadifferentstory.
mostrussiansitalkedtothendidn'thaveastronglikingforbne.slightlymoredislikedzyuganov,though.
also,weshouldn'tforgetthatthenbnewasn'ttheonestandingonthetankinfrontofthewhitehousebut
theonelettinghisdaughterandothersgrabstuff,andlettingkorzhakovrunningthecountryforawhile,
cumberezovskyietal..
themajorissueforthensuccessfulrussiansandmanywesternobserverswasnotthenationalismor
nostalgic'communism'ofzyuganovbutthecompleteinabilityofhis'team'tocontinueinstitutional
reformsandintegratingthecountryintotheworld(whatwasontheagendathen,wemaycomparewith
today,havingtearsinoureyes).
klaus
Am28.07.2016um14:43schriebStephenFortescue:
NodoubtvariousofuswillhavequibbleswithvariousthingsSimeshastosay.I'vegot
onequestion,Isupposeoflargelyhistoricalrelevance.It'shisreferencestothe
'demonstrablyfraudulent'natureand'massiveelectoralfraud'ofthe1996elections.These
arecharacterizationsofthoseelectionsthatoneseeseverywherethesedays,indeedasif
theyareestablishedhistoricalfacts.Istheclaimthatthecountingwassimplyfaked,and
thatifthevoteshadbeencountedascastZyuganovwouldhavewon?Ifthatistheclaim,
isthereevidence?It'sagenuinequestion-itmightwellexistandI'mjustnotawareofit.
IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseordisbeliefin
theoutcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnothaveexpected
scepticism.
I'mofcoursewellawareofthepointsSimesmakesaboutmediasupportforYeltsinand
soon(andmaybethat'sallhemeansby'fraudulent').IremembertheTVcampaigns-I
rememberseeingYeltsin'sfamousdancingonstage-andthereasonablyrelentless
documentariesontheevilsoftheSovietpast.AsfarasIcouldtellthedocumentaries
wereallhistoricallyaccurate,buttherewascertainlysomethingaboutthe
timing.IalsorememberZyuganov'scampaign,whichgotenoughcoveragethatIwas
awareofitanditscontent,andmysenseatthetimewasthatYeltsin'sdancingwouldbe
moreelectorallyeffectivethanZyuganov'stimidlyandtediouslycrudenationalism.AndI
rememberthedealwithLebed,whichwasseenasgivingYeltsinabigchunkofvotesin
thesecondround.IhavetoadmitthatIhavenomemoryofYavlinskybeingaviable
candidateunderanyimaginablecircumstances.
Togetbacktomyquestion,isthereevidencethatYeltsinwontheelectionnotthrough
hardcore,butthroughstraightdownthelineballotboxstuffingand
countfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On28Jul2016,at19:09,JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>wrote:
Changingthesubjecttosomeextent,thelatestfromDimitriSimes
http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/russiaamericadestined
conflict16726

Julian

Cc:RodricBraithwaiteJulianCooperKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLo
carolinavendilpallinElizabethTeague<keith.bush017@gmail.com>Richard
ConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvana
MalleDG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaksto
InfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident

Iagreewithyou-andMashaHessen.Ican'ttellfromherehowbigallthis
reallyisintheUScampaign,andwhyamIcommentingonaplaceI've
barelyevenvisitedinmylife,butiftheDemocratsarerelyingontheRussian
cardtogetthemovertheline,we'vegotabigproblemandifwethinkPutin
isthesourceofallourproblems,we'vegotanevenbiggerproblem.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at21:57,prof.dr.klaussegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-
berlin.de>wrote:

stephen,ithinkit'snotsomuchabouttheKremlinbutabout
politicallygiftedclownssensingopportunities.theyfeelhow
manypeopleareclue-andhelplessfacingsocialandcultural
challengesrelatedtoglobalization.theypersonalizethese
feelingsprovidingforculprits('lockherup'),andoffering
simplified(andmostlynotviable)solutions('let'sbuildawall').
thisisthelinkbetweenputin,orban,erdogan,trump,xi
(exploitingtheanti-elitefeelingsbypromotinganti-corruption)
and,maybe,natanyahu(inowlessaboutthelastone).

IclaimnoexpertiseinthesemattersandI'mgoing
justontheevidencecontainedinthevarious
articlesreferredtointhiscorrespondence,butit
seemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotitright
regardingpossiblefinanciallinksbetweenPutin
andTrump.Theevidenceisverythin-infact
nonethatanyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthave
areclosetoPutin.AsIoffepointsout,Trump's
lackofbusinesssuccessinRussiawouldsuggest
thelackofaconnection,ratherthantheotherway
around.Butbythesoundofithegenerallysent
hissontoMoscow,somaybehewasn'teven
tryingveryhard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn'tpresenta
viewoftheworldwhichisveryattractivetothe
Russians,andthatthey'rehopefulthathe'llwin.I
knownomoreaboutcomputerhackingthanabout
hotelfinancing,butthatevidencedoessoundmore
convincing,andwhywouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussianstuffisinthe
campaign,butonecan'thelphavingthenasty
feelingthatEstoniabeinginthesuburbsofSt
PetersburgandHilaryisawarmongermightbe
attractivepropositionstomorevotersthanIliketo
thinkabout.HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,
say,China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,orarethey
mattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthepresidential
websitereportofyesterday'sSecurityCouncil
meeting,Putinissaidtohavereportedonthe
forthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussiaandPutin's
telephoneconversationswithErdoganand
Netahanyu,allinonesentenceandasiftheywere
alllinked.AmIgettingtooKremlinological,or
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at18:25,RodricBraithwaite
<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>wrote:
Idbeveryinterestedincomments
ontheJoshMarshallarticle.

R

On26Jul2016,at
09:42,JulianCooper
<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
wrote:

Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the
hawks%E2%80%99
electionstrategy
pushingnewcold
war17113

Julian

From:KyleWilson
[mailto:krwilson66@icloud.com]
Sent:26July2016
00:11
To:RobertHorvath
BoboLoJulianCooper
carolinavendilpallin
<teagueeliza@aol.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>
RichardConnollyPhil
Roderic&MandyLyne
JohnBesemeresKlaus
SegbersFUFriedErc
RodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)How
PutinWeaponized
WikileakstoInfluence
theElectionofan
AmericanPresident
SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwarded
message:
Sentfrom
myiPad
Begin
forwarded
message:
Date:26
July
2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President
for
whatever
it's
worth
...
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
MARSHALLPublishedJULY
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT
Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
rightist/nationalist
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
KEYSER<dwkeyser@gmail.com>
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
&utm_term=Editorial%20-
%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election
July
24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
Presidentialcampaign.
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
Receive
dailytimeline:On
emailJune
14,
updates:
cybersecurity
Subscribe
to company
the CrowdStrike,
under
Defense
One
contract
with
daily.
theDNC,
Be announced
the in
firsta
to blog
post
receive
that
updates.
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
group,FANCYBEARorAPT28,
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
firstdiscoveredAPT29
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
group.OtherU.S.officialshave
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
War
group
is
that
alive
hit
and
theState
well
Department,
Tom
the
Kellermann,CEOof
White
Strategic
House,
and
Cyber
the
Ventures
civilian
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
securityresearchers.
In
hisblog
poston
theDNCbreachesCrowdStrikesCTODmitri
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
hacktivist/terrorist
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
named@PwnAlltheThingslooked
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
@PwnAllTheThingsremarked
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
compromisedNSAtradecraft.
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
should,Weaverwrites.
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.

--
klaussegbers
<gp-center-logo.jpg>
professorforpoliticalscience
director,centerforglobalpolitics
freeuniversityofberlin
garystr.55,d-14195berlin
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
urlhttp://www.global-politics.org
urlhttp://www.oei.fu-berlin.de/politik
urlhttp://www.segbers.eu
--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
Senttime: 07/29/201605:55:39AM
Dearfriends,
Formypart,IarrivedinMoscowasFirstSecretaryintheAustralianEmbassyafewdaysbeforetheDecember1995
Dumaelections,andlivedthroughthesix-monthpresidentialelectioncampaign.
1.Yeltsin'spopularityratingincreasedfrom2-3percentinJanuary1996to,ifmemoryserves,53percentinthesecond
roundofthepresidentials(versusZyuganov's38percent).Aremarkablechangeinfortunes,tosaytheleast!
2.So,howdidhedidhedoit?Well,alltheoligarchsgotbehindhimsothattherewasamassivediscrepancyinfinancial
outreach.Then,theelectronicmedia(controlledbyseveraloftheoligarchs)gaveblanketpositivecoveragetoYeltsin,and
correspondinglynegativecoveragetoZyuganov.Oneparticularexamplecomestomind-thetwocandidates'respective
dancingperformances.YeltsinwasshownrockingandrollingonafinedayinRedSquareinfrontofayoung,
enthusiasticaudiencehavingagreattime.Zyuganovwasshownmakingadog'sdinnerofaRussianfolkdance.Hewas
filmedfromabove,sothateveryonecouldseehisbaldingpate(comparedtoY'sfineheadofhair),andsweatingprofusely
fromhisarmpitsandotherorifices.Hisaudiencewasalsohiscore,clapped-outandgrumpyCommunistParty
constituency.Thesymbolismcouldnothavebeenmorestark,andboydidtheelectronicmedialaborthepoint!
3.AfriendofminewasplayingtenniswithGusinskyaboutamonthbeforethefirstround.Gusinskysaidtherewasa
splitintheYeltsincampaboutwhattodowiththepresidentialelections-whethertogoaheadwiththem,orto
cancel/postponethem.The'siloviki'(Iknow,notatermthatcameintofashionuntillater!)closetoYeltsin,namely,
KorzhakovandSoskovets,wereallforcanningtheelectionsonthebasisthattheycouldn'triskZ.comingtopower.
Chubais,however,wasstronglyoftheviewthathecoulddeliverapositiveresult,andthattosuspendtheelectoral
processwouldbebothhighlydamagingandunnecessary.Asweknownow,hewasabletopersuadeYeltsin.
4.Irememberatthetimethattheamountofelectoralfalsification(ballotstuffing,etc.)wasnotdeemedtobeespecially
significant.Thefigurecirculatingwasintheorderof5percent-obviouslyimportantintheeventofaclosecontest,but
notenoughtoinfluenceproceedingsgiventhegeneralexpectationthatYeltsinwouldwinthesecondroundhandily.
5.Weretheelectionsfreeandfair?No.Infact,theformulationthenwasthattheelectionswere'free,butnotfair'.
Interestingly,though,adiplomaticcolleagueofminetoldmethathisEmbassy'slinewasthat'theelectionsshallbe
deemedfair'.
6.PartofthecheatingcamefromthepretensethatYeltsinwasthisvigorous,dynamic,andforward-lookingleaderin
contrasttoatired,regressiveZyuganov.Theirony,ofcourse,isthatYeltsinwasalreadyextremelyill,andcollapsed
soonafterbeingre-elected(remembertheclassicformulation-'workingonpapers'),whereasZyuganov,regressive
thoughheundoubtedlyremains,isstillverymuchwithus.
Bobo
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.I
sawacoupleofZiuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen
-wasitKoryagina?Mystrongimpressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirst
round,theynotonlydidntexpecthimtowin-theyweaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.They
obviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcometheresponsibilityofsortingthecountryout,andhadno
ideahowtosetaboutit.
OnthedayofthesecondrounditselfwewerehavingdinnerwithPiontkovski.Iaskedhimifhed
voted.Hesaidhehadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivic
duty,andthatthoughitwasntmybusinesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewent
outforawhile,andcamebacklatermumblingsomethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.Much
laterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthepollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.He
wassayingthattheendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasa
greatexaggeration:indeeditmightbesalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andso
demonstratedthattheCommunistswerenottheanswer:thescenariowhichworkedinseveralEast
Europeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hedmakesuretherewerenomoreelections.
Whoknows?
AsforBobosdepressingviewofcurrentpoliticsthroughouttheworld,thatswhatyougetifyouwina
ColdWar.INthiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabanana
republic.ItseemstomethatthelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.
Perhapswellendupasanormalcountry(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunch
aboveourweight.
To:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
<krwilson66@icloud.com>RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>Elizabeth
Teague<teagueeliza@aol.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnolly
<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>PhilipHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>RodericLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>John
Besemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>DG
<davidjeglass@gmail.com>BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>SiriolHugh-Jones<siriolhj@yahoo.co.uk>
Dearfriends,
Formypart,IarrivedinMoscowasFirstSecretaryintheAustralianEmbassyafewdaysbeforetheDecember1995Dumaelections,
andlivedthroughthesix-monthpresidentialelectioncampaign.
1.Yeltsin'spopularityratingincreasedfrom2-3percentinJanuary1996to,ifmemoryserves,53percentinthesecondroundofthe
presidentials(versusZyuganov's38percent).Aremarkablechangeinfortunes,tosaytheleast!
2.So,howdidhedidhedoit?Well,alltheoligarchsgotbehindhimsothattherewasamassivediscrepancyinfinancialoutreach.
Then,theelectronicmedia(controlledbyseveraloftheoligarchs)gaveblanketpositivecoveragetoYeltsin,andcorrespondingly
negativecoveragetoZyuganov.Oneparticularexamplecomestomind-thetwocandidates'respectivedancingperformances.Yeltsin
wasshownrockingandrollingonafinedayinRedSquareinfrontofayoung,enthusiasticaudiencehavingagreattime.Zyuganovwas
shownmakingadog'sdinnerofaRussianfolkdance.Hewasfilmedfromabove,sothateveryonecouldseehisbaldingpate(compared
toY'sfineheadofhair),andsweatingprofuselyfromhisarmpitsandotherorifices.Hisaudiencewasalsohiscore,clapped-outand
grumpyCommunistPartyconstituency.Thesymbolismcouldnothavebeenmorestark,andboydidtheelectronicmedialaborthe
point!
3.AfriendofminewasplayingtenniswithGusinskyaboutamonthbeforethefirstround.GusinskysaidtherewasasplitintheYeltsin
campaboutwhattodowiththepresidentialelections-whethertogoaheadwiththem,ortocancel/postponethem.The'siloviki'(I
know,notatermthatcameintofashionuntillater!)closetoYeltsin,namely,KorzhakovandSoskovets,wereallforcanningthe
electionsonthebasisthattheycouldn'triskZ.comingtopower.Chubais,however,wasstronglyoftheviewthathecoulddelivera
positiveresult,andthattosuspendtheelectoralprocesswouldbebothhighlydamagingandunnecessary.Asweknownow,hewas
abletopersuadeYeltsin.
4.Irememberatthetimethattheamountofelectoralfalsification(ballotstuffing,etc.)wasnotdeemedtobeespeciallysignificant.The
figurecirculatingwasintheorderof5percent-obviouslyimportantintheeventofaclosecontest,butnotenoughtoinfluence
proceedingsgiventhegeneralexpectationthatYeltsinwouldwinthesecondroundhandily.
5.Weretheelectionsfreeandfair?No.Infact,theformulationthenwasthattheelectionswere'free,butnotfair'.Interestingly,though,
adiplomaticcolleagueofminetoldmethathisEmbassy'slinewasthat'theelectionsshallbedeemedfair'.
6.PartofthecheatingcamefromthepretensethatYeltsinwasthisvigorous,dynamic,andforward-lookingleaderincontrasttoatired,
regressiveZyuganov.Theirony,ofcourse,isthatYeltsinwasalreadyextremelyill,andcollapsedsoonafterbeingre-elected(remember
theclassicformulation-'workingonpapers'),whereasZyuganov,regressivethoughheundoubtedlyremains,isstillverymuchwithus.
Bobo
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.Isawacouple
ofZiuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?My
strongimpressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimto
win-theyweaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.Theyobviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcomethe
responsibilityofsortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.
hadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasnt
mybusinesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklater
mumblingsomethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthe
pollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassaying
thattheendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeedit
mightbesalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenotthe
answer:thescenariowhichworkedinseveralEastEuropeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hed
makesuretherewerenomoreelections.Whoknows?
thiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstome
thatthelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormal
country(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunchaboveourweight.
Stephen



Julian#

DG
Klaus,
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

kolkhoz).
worst).
klaus
scepticism.
countfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
conflict16726

Julian

MalleDG

Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
berlin.de>wrote:


tryingveryhard.
mattersofnoimport?
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

R

On26Jul2016,at
09:42,JulianCooper
wrote:

Anotherview:
hawks%E2%80%99
electionstrategy
pushingnewcold
war17113

Julian

From:KyleWilson
Sent:26July2016
00:11
To:RobertHorvath
BoboLoJulianCooper
RichardConnollyPhil
Roderic&MandyLyne
JohnBesemeresKlaus
SegbersFUFriedErc
RodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)How
PutinWeaponized
theElectionofan
AmericanPresident
SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwarded
message:
Sentfrom
myiPad
Begin
forwarded
message:
Date:26
July
2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President
for
whatever
it's
worth
...
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT
Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election
July
24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
Receive
dailytimeline:On
emailJune
14,
updates:
cybersecurity
Subscribe
to company
the CrowdStrike,
under
Defense
One
contract
with
daily.
theDNC,
Be announced
the in
firsta
to blog
post
receive
that
updates.
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
War
group
is
that
alive
hit
and
theState
well
Department,
Tom
the
Kellermann,CEOof
White
Strategic
House,
and
Cyber
the
Ventures
civilian
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
In
hisblog
poston
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.

--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
Senttime: 07/29/201605:29:09AM
late,sorry
From:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
To:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>
CC:JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>Bobo
Lo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>ElizabethTeague<teagueeliza@aol.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>PhilipHanson
<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>RodericLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>Klaus
Segbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>DG
<davidjeglass@gmail.com>
Sent:Wed,27Jul201612:34
IclaimnoexpertiseinthesemattersandI'mgoingjustontheevidencecontainedinthevariousarticlesreferredtointhis
correspondence,butitseemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotitrightregardingpossiblefinanciallinksbetweenPutinandTrump.The
evidenceisverythin-infactnonethatanyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthaveareclosetoPutin.AsIoffepointsout,Trump'slackof
businesssuccessinRussiawouldsuggestthelackofaconnection,ratherthantheotherwayaround.Butbythesoundofithe
generallysenthissontoMoscow,somaybehewasn'teventryingveryhard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn'tpresentaviewoftheworldwhichisveryattractivetotheRussians,andthatthey'rehopefulthat
he'llwin.Iknownomoreaboutcomputerhackingthanabouthotelfinancing,butthatevidencedoessoundmoreconvincing,andwhy
wouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussianstuffisinthecampaign,butonecan'thelphavingthenastyfeelingthatEstoniabeinginthe
suburbsofStPetersburgandHilaryisawarmongermightbeattractivepropositionstomorevotersthanIliketothinkabout.Has
anyoneintheUSmentioned,say,China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,oraretheymattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthepresidentialwebsitereportofyesterday'sSecurityCouncilmeeting,Putinissaidtohavereportedon
theforthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussiaandPutin'stelephoneconversationswithErdoganandNetahanyu,allinonesentenceandas
iftheywerealllinked.AmIgettingtooKremlinological,oraretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at18:25,RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>wrote:
IdbeveryinterestedincommentsontheJoshMarshallarticle.
Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/thehawks%E2%80%99electionstrategypushingnewcold
war17113

Julian

From:KyleWilson[mailto:krwilson66@icloud.com]
To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulianCoopercarolinavendilpallin<teagueeliza@aol.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyneJohnBesemeresKlaus
SegbersFUFriedErcRodricBraithwaiteStephenFortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident

SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad
Date:26July2016at01:19:32AEST
To:undisclosed-recipients:
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponized
WikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
forwhateverit'sworth...

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-yes-it-s-really-a-thing

TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReally
aThing
ByJOSHMARSHALLPublishedJULY23,2016,4:15
PMEDT

Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrainaboutthe
seemingbromancebetweenDonaldTrumpandRussianPresident
VladimirPutin.Moreseriously,butrelatedly,manybelieveTrumpis
anadmirerandwould-beemulatorofPutin'sincreasinglyautocratic
andilliberalrule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ata
minimum,Trumpappearstohaveadeepfinancialdependenceon
RussianmoneyfrompersonsclosetoPutin.Andthisismatchedtoa
conspicuoussolicitousnesstoRussianforeignpolicyinterestswhere
theycomeintoconflictwithUSpolicieswhichgobackdecades
throughadministrationsofbothparties.Thereisalsosomething
betweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofevidence
suggestingPutin-backedfinancialsupportforTrumporanon-tacit
alliancebetweenthetwomen.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.Ihavelongbeen
skepticalofUSeffortstoextendsecurityguaranteestocountries
withinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir'nearabroad'orextendsuch
guaranteesandpoliceRussianinteractionswithnewstateswhichfor
centurieswerepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.This
isn'tamatterofindifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedonmy
beliefinseriouslythinkingthroughthepotentialcostsofsuchpolicies.
InthecaseoftheBaltics,thosecountriesarenowpartofNATO.
Securitycommitmentshavebeenmadewhichabsolutelymustbe
kept.Buttherearemanyotherareaswheresuchcommitmentshave
notbeenmade.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometothis
questionorthesepoliciesassomeonelookingforconfrontationor
coldrelationswithRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussianmoney
flowingintoTrump'scoffersandheisconspicuouslysolicitousof
Russianforeignpolicypriorities.
I'lllistoffsomefacts.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,hisdebtloadhas
growndramaticallyoverthelastyear,from$350millionto$630
million.Thisisinjustoneyearwhilehisliquidassetshavealso
decreased.TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyreliantonmoneyfrom
Russia,mostofwhichhasovertheyearsbecomeincreasingly
concentratedamongoligarchsandsub-garchsclosetoVladimir
Putin.Here'sagoodoverviewfromTheWashingtonPost,withone
morselforillustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamilymembershave
madenumeroustripstoMoscowinsearchofbusiness
opportunities,andtheyhavereliedonRussian
investorstobuytheirpropertiesaroundtheworld.
Russiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-
sectionofalotofourassets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,
toldarealestateconferencein2008,accordingtoan
accountpostedonthewebsiteofeTurboNews,atrade
publication.Weseealotofmoneypouringinfrom
Russia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentinManhattan,
oneofTrump'slargestrecentendeavors.Theprojectwashitwitha
seriesoflawsuitsinresponsetosometypicallyTrumpianeffortsto
defraudinvestorsbymakingfraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancial
healthoftheproject.Emergingoutofthatlitigationhowever
wasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfortheprojectfromRussiaand
Kazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheprojecthasfocusedonthe
presenceofatwiceimprisonedRussianimmigrantwithextensiveties
totheRussiancriminalunderworld.Butthat'snotthemostsalient
partofthestory.AstheTimesputit,
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50millioninvestmentin
TrumpSoHoandthreeotherBayrockprojectsbyan
IcelandicfirmpreferredbywealthyRussiansinfavor
withPresidentVladimirV.Putin,accordingtoa
lawsuitagainstBayrockbyoneofitsformer
executives.TheIcelandiccompany,FLGroup,was
identifiedinaBayrockinvestorpresentationasa
strategicpartner,alongwithAlexanderMashkevich,
abillionaireoncechargedinacorruptioncase
involvingfeespaidbyaBelgiancompanyseeking
businessinKazakhstanthatcasewassettledwithno
admissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceivedunexplained
infusionsofcashfromaccountsinKazakhstanandRussia."
Soundscompletelylegit.
Readbotharticles:Afterhisbankruptcyandbusinessfailuresroughly
adecadeagoTrumphashadanincreasinglydifficulttimefinding
sourcesofcapitalfornewinvestments.AsInotedabove,Trumphas
beenblackballedbyallmajorUSbankswiththeexceptionof
Deutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwithamajorUS
presence.Hehassteadiedandrebuilthisfinancialempirewitha
heavyrelianceoncapitalfromRussia.AtaminimumtheTrump
organizationisreceivinglotsofinvestmentcapitalfrompeopleclose
toVladimirPutin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhisconnections
toanddependenceonRussiancapitalalignedwithPutin.Andincase
you'rekeepingscoreathome:no,that'snotreassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal'campaignchair'
whonowfunctionsascampaignmanagerandtopadvisor.Manafort
spentmostofthelastdecadeastopcampaignandcommunications
advisorforViktorYanukovych,thepro-RussianUkrainianPrime
MinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledtotheon-going
crisisandproxywarinUkraine.Yanukovychwasandremainsa
closePutinally.ManafortisrunningTrump'scampaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEuropeisCarter
Page,amanwhoseentireprofessionalcareerhasrevolvedaround
investmentsinRussiaandwhohasdeepandcontinuingfinancialand
employmenttiestoGazprom.Ifyou'renotfamiliarwithGazprom,
imagineifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywererolledupintoa
singlecompanyanditwerepersonallycontrolledbytheUSPresident
whouseditasasourceofrevenueandpatronage.ThatisGazprom's
roleintheRussianpoliticalandeconomicsystem.Itisno
exaggerationtosaythatyoucannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromatthe
veryhighlevelwhichPagehasbeenwithoutbeingwhollyin
alignmentwithPutin'spolicies.ThosetiesalsoallowPutintoput
Pageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,PutinhasalignedallRussianstate
controlledmediabehindTrump.AsFrankFoerexplainshere,thisfits
apatternwithhowPutinhassoughttopropuprightist/nationalist
politiciansacrossEurope,oftenwithdirectorcovertinfusionsof
money.InsomecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-backed
policiesinothersitissimplybecausetheysowdiscordinWestern
alignedstates.Ofcourse,TrumphasrepeatedlypraisedPutin,not
onlyintheabstractbutoftenfortheauthoritarianpoliciesand
patternsofgovernmentwhichhavemostsouredhisreputation
aroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofahandfulof
developmentsthattippedmefromseeingallthisasjustapartof
Trump'slargershadinesstosomethingmorespecificandominous
abouttherelationshipbetweenPutinandTrump.AsTPM'sTierney
Sneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduringdynamicsof
GOPconventions(there'sacomparabledynamicontheDemside)is
moremainstreamnomineesbattlingconservativeactivistsoverthe
partyplatform,withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardline
ideologicalboxesandthenomineestryingtosoftenmostorallof
thoseedges.ThisisonethingthatmadetheTrumpconventionvery
different.TheTrumpCampwastotallyindifferenttotheplatform.So
partyactivistswereabletowriteoneofthemostconservative
platformsinhistory.NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimply
didn'tcare.Withonebigexception:Trump'steammobilizedthe
nominee'straditionalmixofcajolingandstrong-armingonone
point:changingthepartyplatformonassistancetoUkraineagainst
RussianmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth
(andit'snotworthmuch)IamquiteskepticalofmostRepublicans
callforaggressivelyarmingUkrainetoresistRussianaggression.But
thesingle-mindednessofthisfocusonthisoneissue-inthecontext
oftotalindifferencetoeverythingelseintheplatform-speaks
volumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepayofRussiaor
Putin.Itcanjustaseasilybeexplainedbyhavingmanyofhistop
advisorshavingspentyearsworkinginPutin'sorbitandbeingaligned
withhisthinkingandagenda.Butitiscertainlynocoincidence.
Again,inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetotheplatformand
willingnesstoletpartyactivistswriteitinanywaytheywant,his
teamzeroedinononefairlyobscureplanktoexertmaximumforce
anditjusthappenstobetheonemostimportanttoPutinintermsof
USpolicy.
Addtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicystatementstrack
notonlywithPutin'spositionsbutthoseinwhichPutinismost
intenselyinterested.AsidefromUkraine,Trump'ssuggestionthatthe
USandthusNATOmightnotcometothedefenseofNATOmember
statesintheBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionisacaseinpoint.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabouthackingand
allmannerofothermysteries.Butthosepointsarehighlyspeculative,
somevergingonconspiratorialintheirthinking.Iignorethemhere
becauseI'vewantedtofocusonunimpeachable,undisputedand
publiclyknownfacts.Thesealonepaintastarkandhighlytroubling
picture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinweresimplytheCEO
ofamajorAmericancorporationandtherewasthismuch
moneyflowinginTrump'sdirection,combinedwiththismuch
solicitousnessofPutin'spolicyagenda,itwouldsetoffalarmbells
galore.Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutinisnotthe
CEOofanAmericancorporation.He'stheautocratwhorulesa
foreignstate,withanincreasinglyhostileposturetowardstheUnited
Statesandasubstantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakes
involvedinfindingout'what'sgoingon'asTrumpmightputitare
quiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountof
circumstantialevidenceforafinancialrelationshipbetweenTrump
andPutinoranon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwomen.Evenifyou
drawnoadverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancialempireisheavily
leveragedandhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusionsfromoligarchs
andothersourcesofwealthalignedwithPutin.That'ssimplynot
somethingthatcanbewavedofforignored.
From:DonKEYSER<dwkeyser@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jul25,2016at8:01AM
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-putin-weaponized-
wikileaks-influence-election-american-president/130163/?
&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Early%20Bird%20Brief
HowPutinWeaponized
WikileakstoInfluencethe
Electionofan
AmericanPresident
EvidencesuggeststhataRussianintelligencegroupwasthe
sourceofthemostrecentWikileaksinteldump,whichwas
aimedtoinfluencetheU.S.election
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
Closeyoureyesandimaginethatahackinggroup
backedbyRussianPresidentVladimirPutinbrokeinto
theemailsystemofamajorU.S.politicalparty.Thegroup
stolethousandsofsensitivemessagesandthenpublished
themthroughanobligingthirdpartyinawaythatwas
strategicallytimedtoinfluencetheUnitedStates
presidentialelection.Nowopenyoureyes,becausethats
whatjusthappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emailsstolen
fromtheDemocraticNationalCommittee.Theyreveal,
amongotherthings,thuggishinfighting,apushbya
topDNCofficialtouseBernieSandersreligious
convictionsagainsthimintheSouth,andattemptsto
strong-armmediaoutlets.Inotherwords,theyreveal
theWashingtoncampaignmonsterforwhatitis.
ButleaveasidethepurportedcontentoftheWikileaks
datadump(towhichnumerousotheroutletshave
devotedconsiderableattention)andconsiderthe
source.ConsiderableevidenceshowsthattheWikileaks
dumpwasanorchestratedactbytheRussiangovernment,
workingthroughproxies,toundermineHillaryClintons
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.Theonly
rationaletoreleasesuchdatafromtheRussian
bulletproofhostwastoempoweronecandidateagainst
another.TheColdWarisaliveandwell,Tom
Kellermann,theCEOofStrategicCyberVentures
toldDefenseOne.
Subscribe Heresthetimeline:OnJune14,
Receivedailyemailupdates: cybersecuritycompany
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. CrowdStrike,undercontractwith
theDNC,announcedinablog
Bethefirsttoreceiveupdates.
postthattwoseparateRussian
intelligencegroupshadgained
accesstotheDNCnetwork.One
group,FANCYBEARorAPT28,gainedaccessinApril.
Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalledCozyDuke
andAPT29)firstbreachedthenetworkinthesummer
of2015.
CybersecuritycompanyFireEyefirstdiscoveredAPT29
in2014andwasquicktopointoutaclearKremlin
connection.WesuspecttheRussiangovernment
sponsorsthegroupbecauseoftheorganizationsittargets
andthedataitsteals.Additionally,APT29appearedto
ceaseoperationsonRussianholidays,andtheirwork
hoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3timezone,which
containscitiessuchasMoscowandSt.Petersburg,they
wroteintheirreportonthe
group.OtherU.S.officialshavesaidthatthegroup
lookslikeithassponsorshipfromtheRussian
governmentdueinlargeparttothelevelofsophistication
behindthegroupsattacks.
Itsthesamegroup TheColdWarisaliveandwell
thathittheState TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
Department,the
WhiteHouse,and
thecivilianemailoftheJointChiefsofStaff.The
groupsmodusoperandi(aspearphishingattackthat
uploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstoolonthetargets
computer)iswellknowntocyber-securityresearchers.
Inhisblogposton
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsofexperiencewith
bothoftheseactorsattemptingtotargetourcustomersin
thepastandknowthemwell.Infact,ourteamconsiders
themsomeofthebestadversariesoutofallthenumerous
nation-state,criminalandhacktivist/terroristgroupswe
encounteronadailybasis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,
operationalsecuritysecondtononeandtheextensive
usageofliving-off-the-landtechniquesenablesthemto
easilybypassmanysecuritysolutionstheyencounter.
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimselfGuccifer
2.0claimedtobetheculpritbehindthebreachand
releasedkeydocumentstobackupthe
claim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
Related:WhattheJointChiefsEmailHackTells
UsAbouttheDNCBreach
Related:TheUkrainianBlackoutandtheFuture
ofWar
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,writing:
theseclaimsdonothingtolessenourfindingsrelatingto
theRussiangovernmentsinvolvement,portionsofwhich
wehavedocumentedforthepublicandthegreater
securitycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependentanalysisand
reachedthesameconclusion.ThegroupFidelis
undertooktheirowninvestigationandfound
Crowdstriketobecorrect.
ATwitterusernamed@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthe
metadataonthedocsthatGuccifer2.0providedinhis
blogpostandfoundliteralRussiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodinatArs
Technica.Giventheevidencecombinedwith
everythingelse,Ithinkitsastrongattributiontooneof
theRussianintelligenceagencies,
@PwnAllTheThingsremarkedtoMotherboard.
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-Bicchierai
actuallyconversedwithGuccifer2.0overTwitter.The
hacker,whoclaimedtobeRomanian,answeredquestions
inshortsentencesthatwerefilledwithmistakes
accordingtoseveralRomaniannativespeakers,
Bicchierifound.
AlargebodyofevidencesuggeststhatGuccifer2.0isa
smokescreenthattheactualculpritsemployedtohide
theirinvolvementinthebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussianinformationand
influenceoperations.Russianpropagandistshavebeen
caughthiringactorstoportrayvictimsofmanufactured
atrocitiesorcrimesfornewsreports(aswasthecasewhen
ViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohavebeenattackedby
SyrianrefugeesinGermanyforRussias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-scenenewsreporting
(asshowninaleakedvideoinwhichreporterMaria
Katasonovaisrevealedtobeinadarkenedroomwith
explosionsoundsplayinginthebackgroundratherthan
onabattlefieldinDonetskwhenalightisswitchedon
duringtherecording),notesaRANDreportfromearlier
inJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatformservedto
legitimizetheinformationdump,whichalsocontainsa
largeamountofpersonalinformationrelatedto
democraticdonorssuchassocialsecurityandcreditcard
numbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaksdidntperforma
thoroughanalysisofthedocumentsbeforetheyreleased
them,orsimplydidntcare.
Itsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthatinformation
securityresearcherBruceSchneiercallsorganizational
doxingandthatLawfaresNicholasWeavercallsthe
weaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priorto
theDNCincident,wastheJune2015thepublicationof
severalsetsofNSArecordsrelatedtogovernment
intelligencecollectiontargets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.Thedataitself
wasnotremarkable,butitdidharmU.S.relationsand
mayhavecompromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaks
doesntseemtocarethattheyarebeingusedasaweapon
byunknownparties,insteadcallingthemselvesalibrary
ofmasseducation.Buttherestofus
TheevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthatPutinused
togreateffectlastweek.
From: KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>
Senttime: 07/29/201605:15:43AM
To: DavidWall<dfrwall@gmail.com>
SentfrommyiPad
From:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>
Date:29July201610:03:38pmAEST
To:JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
Cc:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,KlausSegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,KyleWilson
<krwilson66@icloud.com>,RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,
carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,ElizabethTeague<teagueeliza@aol.com>,"
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,Philip
Hanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>,RodericLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,JohnBesemeres
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>,SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,DG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.Isawacoupleof
Ziuganovsteamatthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?Mystrong
impressionwasthat,despitetheirmansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimtowin-they
weaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.Theyobviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcometheresponsibilityof
sortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.
hadnt,becausehecouldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasntmy
businesstosayso,IthoughtheshouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklatermumbling
somethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthepollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassayingthat
theendofcivilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeeditmight
besalutaryifZiuganovwon,madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenottheanswer:the
scenariowhichworkedinseveralEastEuropeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hedmakesurethere
werenomoreelections.Whoknows?
thiscountrythingsaresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstomethat
thelatestfiascoisonemorestageinBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormalcountry
(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunchaboveourweight.
Stephen

DontforgetthatitwasMedvedevwhofocusedattentionontheissueofthe1996presidentialelection
inancommentmadeataclosedmeetinginFebruary2012:
Yes,theVoronezhmekhanicheskiizavod,amajorproducerofliquidfuelledrocketengines,thenand
now;afilialoftheKhrunichevstatespacescienceproductioncentreoftheRoskosmosstate
corporation.Alsoinvolvednowinimportsubstitutionactivitiesinthefieldofequipmentfortheoil
andgasindustry.
Julian#
Cc:JulianCooperRodricBraithwaiteKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLocarolinavendilpallinElizabeth
Teague<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFried
ErcSilvanaMalleDG
AmericanPresident
Klaus,
Interesting.Thanksforthat.Iwouldhavesuspectedsomethingfishywasgoingoniftheydidn'ttrytoget
youdrunk.Anumberofmywife'srelativescomefromVoronezh.Oneofthemwasthechiefengineerof
theVoronezhMekhanicheskiiZavod(Ithinkthat'sthename-anywaythebigdefenceplant),who
becametheheadofthelocalprivatisationagencyandhadalotofrespectforChubais.Idon'tremember
talkingtohimaboutYeltsin.Iimaginehewouldhavehadmixedfeelings,butnodoubtwhosesidehe
wouldhavebeenon.Heorganizedsomeinterestingmeetingsforme,whichImightgettheopportunityto
describesomeothertime-andyouyourkolkhoz.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
atthattime,iwasanofficialelectionobserverinvoronezh'(city)andoblast'(irmemebera
colorfulkolkhoz).
theosceandeuroparliamentdelegationsdidn'thavehardevoidenceoffalsificationson
electionday.unlessyoutakeattemptstomakeforeignobserversdrunkobverversas
falsifications(icouldresisttheworst).
mostrussiansitalkedtothendidn'thaveastronglikingforbne.slightlymoredisliked
zyuganov,though.also,weshouldn'tforgetthatthenbnewasn'ttheonestandingonthetank
infrontofthewhitehousebuttheonelettinghisdaughterandothersgrabstuff,andletting
korzhakovrunningthecountryforawhile,cumberezovskyietal..
themajorissueforthensuccessfulrussiansandmanywesternobserverswasnotthe
nationalismornostalgic'communism'ofzyuganovbutthecompleteinabilityofhis'team'to
continueinstitutionalreformsandintegratingthecountryintotheworld(whatwasonthe
agendathen,wemaycomparewithtoday,havingtearsinoureyes).
klaus
NodoubtvariousofuswillhavequibbleswithvariousthingsSimeshastosay.
I'vegotonequestion,Isupposeoflargelyhistoricalrelevance.It'shis
referencestothe'demonstrablyfraudulent'natureand'massiveelectoralfraud'
ofthe1996elections.Thesearecharacterizationsofthoseelectionsthatone
seeseverywherethesedays,indeedasiftheyareestablishedhistoricalfacts.Is
theclaimthatthecountingwassimplyfaked,andthatifthevoteshadbeen
countedascastZyuganovwouldhavewon?Ifthatistheclaim,isthere
evidence?It'sagenuinequestion-itmightwellexistandI'mjustnotawareof
it.IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseor
disbeliefintheoutcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnot
haveexpectedscepticism.
I'mofcoursewellawareofthepointsSimesmakesaboutmediasupportfor
Yeltsinandsoon(andmaybethat'sallhemeansby'fraudulent').Iremember
theTVcampaigns-IrememberseeingYeltsin'sfamousdancingonstage-and
thereasonablyrelentlessdocumentariesontheevilsoftheSovietpast.Asfar
asIcouldtellthedocumentarieswereallhistoricallyaccurate,buttherewas
certainlysomethingaboutthetiming.Ialsoremember
Zyuganov'scampaign,whichgotenoughcoveragethatIwasawareofitandits
content,andmysenseatthetimewasthatYeltsin'sdancingwouldbemore
electorallyeffectivethanZyuganov'stimidlyandtediouslycrudenationalism.
AndIrememberthedealwithLebed,whichwasseenasgivingYeltsinabig
chunkofvotesinthesecondround.IhavetoadmitthatIhavenomemoryof
Yavlinskybeingaviablecandidateunderanyimaginablecircumstances.
Togetbacktomyquestion,isthereevidencethatYeltsinwontheelectionnot
throughhardcore,butthroughstraightdownthelineballot
boxstuffingandcountfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On28Jul2016,at19:09,JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
wrote:
Changingthesubjecttosomeextent,thelatestfromDimitri
Simes
http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/russiaamerica
destinedconflict16726

Julian

Cc:RodricBraithwaiteJulianCooperKyleWilsonRobertHorvath
BoboLocarolinavendilpallinElizabethTeague
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilipHanson
RodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalleDG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponized

Iagreewithyou-andMashaHessen.Ican'ttellfromherehow
bigallthisreallyisintheUScampaign,andwhyamIcommenting
onaplaceI'vebarelyevenvisitedinmylife,butiftheDemocrats
arerelyingontheRussiancardtogetthemovertheline,we've
gotabigproblemandifwethinkPutinisthesourceofallour
problems,we'vegotanevenbiggerproblem.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at21:57,prof.dr.klaussegbers
<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>wrote:
stephen,ithinkit'snotsomuchabouttheKremlin
butaboutpoliticallygiftedclownssensing
opportunities.theyfeelhowmanypeopleareclue-
andhelplessfacingsocialandculturalchallenges
relatedtoglobalization.theypersonalizethese
feelingsprovidingforculprits('lockherup'),and
offeringsimplified(andmostlynotviable)solutions
('let'sbuildawall').thisisthelinkbetweenputin,
orban,erdogan,trump,xi(exploitingtheanti-elite
feelingsbypromotinganti-corruption)and,maybe,
natanyahu(inowlessaboutthelastone).

Am27.07.2016um13:34schriebStephen
Fortescue:
Iclaimnoexpertiseinthesematters
andI'mgoingjustontheevidence
containedinthevariousarticles
referredtointhiscorrespondence,but
itseemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotit
rightregardingpossiblefinanciallinks
betweenPutinandTrump.The
evidenceisverythin-infactnonethat
anyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthave
areclosetoPutin.AsIoffepointsout,
Trump'slackofbusinesssuccessin
Russiawouldsuggestthelackofa
connection,ratherthantheotherway
around.Butbythesoundofithe
generallysenthissontoMoscow,so
maybehewasn'teventryingvery
hard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn't
presentaviewoftheworldwhichis
veryattractivetotheRussians,andthat
they'rehopefulthathe'llwin.Iknow
nomoreaboutcomputerhackingthan
abouthotelfinancing,butthatevidence
doessoundmoreconvincing,andwhy
wouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussian
stuffisinthecampaign,butonecan't
helphavingthenastyfeelingthat
EstoniabeinginthesuburbsofSt
PetersburgandHilaryisawarmonger
mightbeattractivepropositionsto
morevotersthanIliketothinkabout.
HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,say,
China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,or
aretheymattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthe
presidentialwebsitereportof
yesterday'sSecurityCouncilmeeting,
Putinissaidtohavereportedonthe
forthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussia
andPutin'stelephoneconversations
withErdoganandNetahanyu,allinone
sentenceandasiftheywerealllinked.
AmIgettingtooKremlinological,or
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at18:25,Rodric
Braithwaite
Idbeveryinterestedin
commentsontheJosh
Marshallarticle.

R

On26Jul
2016,at
09:42,Julian
Cooper
wrote:

Another
view:
hawks%E2%80%99
election
strategy
pushing
newcold
war17113

Julian

From:Kyle
Wilson
Sent:26
July2016
00:11
To:Robert
Horvath
BoboLo
Julian
Cooper
carolina
vendilpallin
Richard
Connolly
PhilRoderic
&Mandy
LyneJohn
Besemeres
Klaus
SegbersFU
FriedErc
Rodric
Braithwaite
Stephen
Fortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
HowPutin
Weaponized
Wikileaksto
Influencethe
Electionofan
American
President
Sentfrom
myiPad
Begin
forwarded
message:
Sent
from
my
iPad
Begin
forwarded
message:
Date:26
July
2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President
for
whatever
it's
worth
...
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT

Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election
July
24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
Receive
dailytimeline:On
June
email
14,
updates:
cybersecurity
Subscribe
to company
the CrowdStrike,
under
Defense
One
contract
with
daily.
theDNC,
Be announced
the in
firsta
to blog
post
receive
that
updates.
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
War
group
is
that
alive
hit
and
theState
well
Department,
Tom
the
Kellermann,CEOof
White
Strategic
House,
and
Cyber
the
Ventures
civilian
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
In
hisblog
poston
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.

--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
Senttime: 07/29/201605:14:02AM
stillsorryIcan'tgetridofthetail,butRB'scommentstrikesmeasbrilliant
From:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>
To:JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
<krwilson66@icloud.com>RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>carolinavendilpallin
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>ElizabethTeague<teagueeliza@aol.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>
RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>PhilipHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>RodericLyne
<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>SilvanaMalle
<silvana.malle@univr.it>DG<davidjeglass@gmail.com>
Icantkeepup.
However,ItOowasinRussiaatthetimeofthe1996election,intheweekbeforethesecondround.IsawacoupleofZiuganovsteam
atthattime:Masliukov,Surikov,andthatamazingeconomistwomen-wasitKoryagina?Mystrongimpressionwasthat,despitetheir
mansstrongshowinginthefirstround,theynotonlydidntexpecthimtowin-theyweaghastatthepossibilitythathemight.They
obviouslyfearedthatwithvictorywouldcometheresponsibilityofsortingthecountryout,andhadnoideahowtosetaboutit.
OnthedayofthesecondrounditselfwewerehavingdinnerwithPiontkovski.Iaskedhimifhedvoted.Hesaidhehadnt,becausehe
couldntbeareithercandidate.Itoldhimheshoulddohiscivicduty,andthatthoughitwasntmybusinesstosayso,Ithoughthe
shouldvoteforYeltsin.Sohewentoutforawhile,andcamebacklatermumblingsomethingthatledmetobelieveheddonethat.
MuchlaterIdiscoveredthathehadntbeennearthepollingboth.
FourorfivemonthsearlierGaidarandIhaddisagreedwhenwebothspokeatadinnerinLondon.Hewassayingthattheendof
civilisationwouldoccurifZiuganovwon.IsaidthatIthoughtthatwasagreatexaggeration:indeeditmightbesalutaryifZiuganovwon,
madeafoolofhimself,andsodemonstratedthattheCommunistswerenottheanswer:thescenariowhichworkedinseveralEast
Europeancountries.GaidarsaidthatifZiuganovwon,hedmakesuretherewerenomoreelections.Whoknows?
AsforBobosdepressingviewofcurrentpoliticsthroughouttheworld,thatswhatyougetifyouwinaColdWar.INthiscountrythings
aresettlingdownunderMay:areliefafteraweekoflivinginabananarepublic.Itseemstomethatthelatestfiascoisonemorestage
inBritainsdeparturefromempire.Perhapswellendupasanormalcountry(whateverthatmeans),withnomoreambitionstopunch
aboveourweight.
Stephen



Julian#

DG
Klaus,
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

kolkhoz).
worst).
klaus
IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseordisbeliefinthe
outcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnothaveexpected
scepticism.
countfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
conflict16726

Julian

MalleDG

Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
berlin.de>wrote:


tryingveryhard.
mattersofnoimport?
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

R

On26Jul2016,at
09:42,JulianCooper
<j.m.cooper@bham.ac
.uk>wrote:

Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest
.org/feature/the
hawks%E2%80%99
electionstrategy
pushingnewcold
war17113

Julian

From:KyleWilson
[mailto:krwilson66@iclou
d.com]
Sent:26July2016
00:11
To:RobertHorvath
BoboLoJulianCooper
<keith.bush017@gmail.c
om>RichardConnolly
PhilRoderic&Mandy
LyneJohnBesemeres
KlausSegbersFUFried
ErcRodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescue
SilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)How
PutinWeaponized
theElectionofan
AmericanPresident
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--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
Senttime: 07/29/201603:35:31AM
Sorry,Idon'tknowhowtocutoffallthestuffattheend...
From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
To:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>segbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>
CC:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>
BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>ElizabethTeague<teagueeliza@aol.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>PhilipHanson
<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>RodericLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>Fried
Erc<ErcFried@aol.com>SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>DG<davidjeglass@gmail.com>
Subject:RE:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
Stephen
DontforgetthatitwasMedvedevwhofocusedattentionontheissueofthe1996presidentialelectioninancommentmadeat
aclosedmeetinginFebruary2012:
Yes,theVoronezhmekhanicheskiizavod,amajorproducerofliquidfuelledrocketengines,thenandnow;afilialofthe
KhrunichevstatespacescienceproductioncentreoftheRoskosmosstatecorporation.Alsoinvolvednowinimport
substitutionactivitiesinthefieldofequipmentfortheoilandgasindustry.
Julian#
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilipHansonRodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalleDG
Klaus,
Interesting.Thanksforthat.Iwouldhavesuspectedsomethingfishywasgoingoniftheydidn'ttrytogetyoudrunk.Anumberof
mywife'srelativescomefromVoronezh.OneofthemwasthechiefengineeroftheVoronezhMekhanicheskiiZavod(Ithinkthat's
thename-anywaythebigdefenceplant),whobecametheheadofthelocalprivatisationagencyandhadalotofrespectfor
Chubais.Idon'tremembertalkingtohimaboutYeltsin.Iimaginehewouldhavehadmixedfeelings,butnodoubtwhosesidehe
wouldhavebeenon.Heorganizedsomeinterestingmeetingsforme,whichImightgettheopportunitytodescribesomeother
time-andyouyourkolkhoz.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

atthattime,iwasanofficialelectionobserverinvoronezh'(city)andoblast'(irmemeberacolorfulkolkhoz).
theosceandeuroparliamentdelegationsdidn'thavehardevoidenceoffalsificationsonelectionday.unlessyoutake
attemptstomakeforeignobserversdrunkobverversasfalsifications(icouldresisttheworst).
mostrussiansitalkedtothendidn'thaveastronglikingforbne.slightlymoredislikedzyuganov,though.also,we
shouldn'tforgetthatthenbnewasn'ttheonestandingonthetankinfrontofthewhitehousebuttheonelettinghis
daughterandothersgrabstuff,andlettingkorzhakovrunningthecountryforawhile,cumberezovskyietal..
themajorissueforthensuccessfulrussiansandmanywesternobserverswasnotthenationalismornostalgic
'communism'ofzyuganovbutthecompleteinabilityofhis'team'tocontinueinstitutionalreformsandintegratingthe
countryintotheworld(whatwasontheagendathen,wemaycomparewithtoday,havingtearsinoureyes).
klaus
NodoubtvariousofuswillhavequibbleswithvariousthingsSimeshastosay.I'vegotonequestion,I
supposeoflargelyhistoricalrelevance.It'shisreferencestothe'demonstrablyfraudulent'natureand
'massiveelectoralfraud'ofthe1996elections.Thesearecharacterizationsofthoseelectionsthatone
seeseverywherethesedays,indeedasiftheyareestablishedhistoricalfacts.Istheclaimthatthe
countingwassimplyfaked,andthatifthevoteshadbeencountedascastZyuganovwouldhavewon?
Ifthatistheclaim,isthereevidence?It'sagenuinequestion-itmightwellexistandI'mjustnotaware
ofit.IwasinRussiaatthetime,andIdon'trememberthenasenseofsurpriseordisbeliefinthe
outcome-butIguessImovedincirclesinwhichonewouldnothaveexpectedscepticism.
I'mofcoursewellawareofthepointsSimesmakesaboutmediasupportforYeltsinandsoon(andmay
bethat'sallhemeansby'fraudulent').IremembertheTVcampaigns-IrememberseeingYeltsin's
famousdancingonstage-andthereasonablyrelentlessdocumentariesontheevilsoftheSovietpast.
AsfarasIcouldtellthedocumentarieswereallhistoricallyaccurate,buttherewascertainlysomething
aboutthetiming.IalsorememberZyuganov'scampaign,whichgotenoughcoveragethat
Iwasawareofitanditscontent,andmysenseatthetimewasthatYeltsin'sdancingwouldbemore
electorallyeffectivethanZyuganov'stimidlyandtediouslycrudenationalism.AndIrememberthedeal
withLebed,whichwasseenasgivingYeltsinabigchunkofvotesinthesecondround.Ihavetoadmit
thatIhavenomemoryofYavlinskybeingaviablecandidateunderanyimaginablecircumstances.
Togetbacktomyquestion,isthereevidencethatYeltsinwontheelectionnotthroughhardcore
,butthroughstraightdownthelineballotboxstuffingandcountfalsification?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
http://nationalinterest.org/print/feature/russiaamericadestinedconflict16726

Julian

Cc:RodricBraithwaiteJulianCooperKyleWilsonRobertHorvathBoboLocarolinavendil
pallinElizabethTeague<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilipHanson
RodericLyneJohnBesemeresFriedErcSilvanaMalleDG
Subject:Re:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencethe
ElectionofanAmericanPresident

Iagreewithyou-andMashaHessen.Ican'ttellfromherehowbigallthisreallyisinthe
UScampaign,andwhyamIcommentingonaplaceI'vebarelyevenvisitedinmylife,but
iftheDemocratsarerelyingontheRussiancardtogetthemovertheline,we'vegotabig
problemandifwethinkPutinisthesourceofallourproblems,we'vegotanevenbigger
problem.
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad

stephen,ithinkit'snotsomuchabouttheKremlinbutaboutpoliticallygifted
clownssensingopportunities.theyfeelhowmanypeopleareclue-andhelpless
facingsocialandculturalchallengesrelatedtoglobalization.theypersonalize
thesefeelingsprovidingforculprits('lockherup'),andofferingsimplified(and
mostlynotviable)solutions('let'sbuildawall').thisisthelinkbetweenputin,
orban,erdogan,trump,xi(exploitingtheanti-elitefeelingsbypromotinganti-
corruption)and,maybe,natanyahu(inowlessaboutthelastone).
IclaimnoexpertiseinthesemattersandI'mgoingjustonthe
evidencecontainedinthevariousarticlesreferredtointhis
correspondence,butitseemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotit
rightregardingpossiblefinanciallinksbetweenPutinandTrump.
Theevidenceisverythin-infactnonethatanyRussian
partnersTrumpmighthaveareclosetoPutin.AsIoffepoints
out,Trump'slackofbusinesssuccessinRussiawouldsuggest
thelackofaconnection,ratherthantheotherwayaround.But
bythesoundofithegenerallysenthissontoMoscow,somay
behewasn'teventryingveryhard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn'tpresentaviewoftheworld
whichisveryattractivetotheRussians,andthatthey'rehopeful
thathe'llwin.Iknownomoreaboutcomputerhackingthan
abouthotelfinancing,butthatevidencedoessoundmore
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussianstuffisinthecampaign,
butonecan'thelphavingthenastyfeelingthatEstoniabeingin
thesuburbsofStPetersburgandHilaryisawarmongermight
beattractivepropositionstomorevotersthanIliketothink
about.HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,say,China,theSouth
ChinaSeas,etc,oraretheymattersofnoimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthepresidentialwebsitereport
ofyesterday'sSecurityCouncilmeeting,Putinissaidtohave
reportedontheforthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussiaand
Putin'stelephoneconversationswithErdoganandNetahanyu,
allinonesentenceandasiftheywerealllinked.AmIgetting
tooKremlinological,oraretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
IdbeveryinterestedincommentsontheJosh
Marshallarticle.

R

On26Jul2016,at09:42,Julian
Cooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
wrote:

Anotherview:
hawks%E2%80%99election
strategypushingnewcoldwar
17113
Julian
From:KyleWilson
To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulian
Coopercarolinavendilpallin
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>Richard
ConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyne
JohnBesemeresKlausSegbersFU
FriedErcRodricBraithwaiteStephen
FortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutin
WeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencethe
SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwarded
message:
Date:26
July2016
at
01:19:32
AEST
To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
ofan
American
President
for
whatever
it'sworth
...
putin-yes-
it-s-really-
a-thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT
Overthe
lastyear
therehas
beena
recurrent
refrain
aboutthe
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trumpis
an
admirer
and
would-be
emulator
ofPutin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.But
there's
quitea
bitmore
tothe
story.At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
tohavea
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
closeto
Putin.
Andthis
is
matched
toa
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
withUS
policies
whichgo
back
decades
through
administrations
ofboth
parties.
Thereis
also
something
between
anon-
trivial
anda
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trumpor
anon-
tacit
alliance
between
thetwo
men.
Letme
startby
saying
I'mno
Russia
hawk.I
have
longbeen
skeptical
ofUS
effortsto
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
whatthe
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
orextend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
withnew
states
whichfor
centuries
werepart
ofeither
the
Russian
Empire
orthe
USSR.
Thisisn't
amatter
of
indifference
tothese
countries.
Itis
basedon
mybelief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costsof
such
policies.
Inthe
caseof
the
Baltics,
those
countries
arenow
partof
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
mustbe
kept.But
thereare
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
havenot
been
made.
Mypoint
inraising
thisis
thatIdo
notcome
tothis
question
orthese
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
orcold
relations
with
Russia.
Let'sstart
withthe
basic
facts.
Thereisa
lotof
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
andheis
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'lllistoff
some
facts.
1.Allthe
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
loadhas
grown
dramatically
overthe
lastyear,
from
$350
millionto
$630
million.
Thisisin
justone
year
whilehis
liquid
assets
havealso
decreased.
Trump
hasbeen
blackballed
byall
majorUS
banks.
2.Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
hasbeen
highly
relianton
money
from
Russia,
mostof
which
hasover
theyears
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
andsub-
garchs
closeto
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.One
example
ofthisis
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
oneof
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
washit
witha
seriesof
lawsuits
in
response
tosome
typically
Trumpian
effortsto
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
aboutthe
financial
healthof
the
project.
Emerging
outof
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
forthe
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
aboutthe
project
has
focused
onthe
presence
ofatwice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
tiestothe
Russian
criminal
underworld.
Butthat's
notthe
most
salient
partof
thestory.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
ofcash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
Afterhis
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughlya
decade
ago
Trump
hashad
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
ofcapital
fornew
investments.
AsI
noted
above,
Trump
hasbeen
blackballed
byall
majorUS
banks
withthe
exception
of
Deutschebank,
whichis
ofcourse
aforeign
bank
witha
majorUS
presence.
Hehas
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
witha
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
Ata
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lotsof
investment
capital
from
people
closeto
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
thedepth
ofhis
connections
toand
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
Andin
case
you're
keeping
scoreat
home:
no,that's
not
reassuring.
4.Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
whonow
functions
as
campaign
manager
andtop
advisor.
Manafort
spent
mostof
thelast
decadeas
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
forViktor
Yanukovych,
thepro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
andthen
President
whose
ousterin
2014led
tothe
on-going
crisisand
proxy
warin
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
wasand
remains
aclose
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
inRussia
andwho
hasdeep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
tiesto
Gazprom.
Ifyou're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
ifmostor
allofthe
US
energy
industry
were
rolledup
intoa
single
company
andit
were
personally
controlled
bythe
US
President
whoused
itasa
sourceof
revenue
and
patronage.
Thatis
Gazprom's
rolein
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
Itisno
exaggeration
tosay
thatyou
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
atthe
veryhigh
level
which
Pagehas
been
without
being
whollyin
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
tiesalso
allow
Putinto
putPage
outof
business
atany
time.
6.Over
the
courseof
thelast
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
AsFrank
Foerexplains
here,this
fitsa
pattern
withhow
Putinhas
soughtto
propup
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
director
covert
infusions
of
money.
Insome
casesthis
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
inothers
itis
simply
because
theysow
discordin
Western
aligned
states.Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
notonly
inthe
abstract
butoften
forthe
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.Here's
whereit
gets
more
interesting.
Thisis
oneofa
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
mefrom
seeingall
thisas
justa
partof
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
aboutthe
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
AsTPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
inthis
article,
oneof
themost
enduring
dynamics
ofGOP
conventions
(there'sa
comparable
dynamic
onthe
Dem
side)is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
overthe
party
platform,
with
activists
tryingto
checkall
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
andthe
nominees
tryingto
soften
mostor
allof
those
edges.
Thisis
onething
that
madethe
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
tothe
platform.
Soparty
activists
wereable
towrite
oneof
themost
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Notwith
Trump's
backing
but
because
hesimply
didn't
care.With
onebig
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mixof
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
onone
point:changing
theparty
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
Forwhat
it'sworth
(andit's
not
worth
much)I
amquite
skeptical
ofmost
Republicans
callfor
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
toresist
Russian
aggression.
Butthe
single-
mindedness
ofthis
focuson
thisone
issue-in
the
context
oftotal
indifference
to
everything
elsein
the
platform
-speaks
volumes.
Thisdoes
notmean
Trumpis
controlled
byorin
thepay
ofRussia
orPutin.
Itcan
justas
easilybe
explained
by
having
manyof
histop
advisors
having
spent
years
working
inPutin's
orbitand
being
aligned
withhis
thinking
and
agenda.
Butitis
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,in
the
context
ofnear
total
indifference
tothe
platform
and
willingness
tolet
party
activists
writeitin
anyway
they
want,his
team
zeroedin
onone
fairly
obscure
plankto
exert
maximum
forceand
itjust
happens
tobethe
onemost
important
toPutin
interms
ofUS
policy.
Addto
thisthat
hismost
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
tracknot
onlywith
Putin's
positions
butthose
inwhich
Putinis
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
thatthe
USand
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
tothe
defense
ofNATO
member
statesin
the
Balticsin
thecase
ofa
Russian
invasion
isacase
inpoint.
Thereare
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
andall
manner
ofother
mysteries.
Butthose
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
intheir
thinking.
Iignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
tofocus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
painta
starkand
highly
troubling
picture.
Toput
thisall
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
theCEO
ofa
major
American
corporation
andthere
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
itwould
setoff
alarm
bells
galore.
Thatis
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
Andyet
Putinis
notthe
CEOof
an
American
corporation.
He'sthe
autocrat
who
rulesa
foreign
state,
withan
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
anda
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
infinding
out
'what's
goingon'
asTrump
might
putitare
quitea
bit
higher.
Thereis
something
between
anon-
trivial
anda
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
fora
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putinor
anon-
tacit
alliance
between
thetwo
men.
Evenif
youdraw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empireis
heavily
leveraged
andhasa
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
andother
sources
ofwealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
thatcan
bewaved
offor
ignored.
----------
Forwarded
message-
---------
From:Don
Date:
Mon,Jul
25,2016
at8:01
AM
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
thata
Russian
intelligence
group
wasthe
source
ofthe
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
theU.S.
election
July24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
intothe
email
system
ofa
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
partyin
away
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
apush
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
himin
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
ofthe
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
thatthe
Wikileaks
dump
wasan
orchestrated
actby
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
This
hasall
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
wasto
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
Waris
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Subscribe
Receive
daily
email
updates:
Subscribe
tothe
Defense
Onedaily.
Bethe
firstto
receive
updates.
Heres
the
timeline:On
June
14,
cybersecurity
company
CrowdStrike,
under
contract
with
theDNC,
announced
ina
blog
post
that
two
separate
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
gained
access
inApril.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
inthe
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
in2014
andwas
quickto
point
outa
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
ofthe
organizations
it
targets
andthe
datait
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
tocease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seemto
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
suchas
Moscow
andSt.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
intheir
report
onthe
said
thatthe
group
looks
likeit
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
duein
large
partto
the
levelof
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
TheCold
Warisalive
andwell
Tom
Kellermann,CEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
Itsthe
same
group
thathit
theState
Department,
the
White
House,
andthe
civilian
emailof
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
toolon
the
targets
computer)
iswell
known
to
cyber-
In
hisblog
poston
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
hadlots
of
experience
with
bothof
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
inthe
past
and
know
them
well.In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
someof
thebest
adversaries
outof
allthe
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
groups
we
encounter
ona
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
tonone
andthe
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-the-
land
techniques
enables
themto
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
bethe
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
toback
upthe
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
bytheir
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
tothe
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
wehave
documented
forthe
public
andthe
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
atthe
metadata
onthe
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
inhis
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
upby
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,I
think
itsa
strong
attribution
toone
ofthe
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
tobe
Romanian,
answered
questions
inshort
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
Alarge
bodyof
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0isa
smokescreen
thatthe
actual
culprits
employed
tohide
th
Senttime: 07/29/201604:43:25AM
To: DavidWall<dfrwall@gmail.com>
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Cc:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>,RobertHorvath
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<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>,RodericLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,JohnBesemeres
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>,SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,DG
Subject:RE:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
Stephen
Julian#
DG

Klaus,
Stephen
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kolkhoz).
worst).
klaus
scepticism.
countfalsification?
Stephen
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conflict16726
Julian
MalleDG
Stephen
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berlin.de>wrote:

tryingveryhard.
mattersofnoimport?
aretheyalllinked?
Stephen
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On26Jul2016,at
09:42,JulianCooper
wrote:
Anotherview:
hawks%E2%80%99
electionstrategy
pushingnewcold
war17113
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From:KyleWilson
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00:11
To:RobertHorvath
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RichardConnollyPhil
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StephenFortescue
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Subject:Fwd:160724
(DefOne/Tucker)How
PutinWeaponized
theElectionofan
AmericanPresident

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Date:26
July
2016
at
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To:undisclosed-
recipients:
Subject:Fwd:
160724
(DefOne/Tucker)
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
American
President
for
whatever
it's
worth
...
putin-
yes-
it-
s-
really-
a-
thing
TPMEDITOR'S
BLOG
Trump
&
Putin.
Yes,
It's
Really
a
Thing
ByJOSH
23,
2016,
4:15
PM
EDT
Over
the
last
year
there
has
been
a
recurrent
refrain
about
the
seeming
bromance
between
Donald
Trump
and
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin.
More
seriously,
but
relatedly,
many
believe
Trump
is
an
admirer
and
would-
be
emulator
of
Putin's
increasingly
autocratic
and
illiberal
rule.
But
there's
quite
a
bit
more
to
the
story.
At
a
minimum,
Trump
appears
to
have
a
deep
financial
dependence
on
Russian
money
from
persons
close
to
Putin.
And
this
is
matched
to
a
conspicuous
solicitousness
to
Russian
foreign
policy
interests
where
they
come
into
conflict
with
US
policies
which
go
back
decades
through
administrations
of
both
parties.
There
is
also
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
evidence
suggesting
Putin-
backed
financial
support
for
Trump
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Let
me
start
by
saying
I'm
no
Russia
hawk.
I
have
long
been
skeptical
of
US
efforts
to
extend
security
guarantees
to
countries
within
what
the
Russians
consider
their
'near
abroad'
or
extend
such
guarantees
and
police
Russian
interactions
with
new
states
which
for
centuries
were
part
of
either
the
Russian
Empire
or
the
USSR.
This
isn't
a
matter
of
indifference
to
these
countries.
It
is
based
on
my
belief
in
seriously
thinking
through
the
potential
costs
of
such
policies.
In
the
case
of
the
Baltics,
those
countries
are
now
part
of
NATO.
Security
commitments
have
been
made
which
absolutely
must
be
kept.
But
there
are
many
other
areas
where
such
commitments
have
not
been
made.
My
point
in
raising
this
is
that
I
do
not
come
to
this
question
or
these
policies
as
someone
looking
for
confrontation
or
cold
relations
with
Russia.
Let's
start
with
the
basic
facts.
There
is
a
lot
of
Russian
money
flowing
into
Trump's
coffers
and
he
is
conspicuously
solicitous
of
Russian
foreign
policy
priorities.
I'll
list
off
some
facts.
1.
All
the
other
discussions
of
Trump's
finances
aside,
hisdebt
load
has
grown
dramatically
over
the
last
year,
from
$350
million
to
$630
million.
This
is
in
just
one
year
while
his
liquid
assets
have
also
decreased.
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks.
2.
Post-
bankruptcy
Trump
has
been
highly
reliant
on
money
from
Russia,
most
of
which
has
over
the
years
become
increasingly
concentrated
among
oligarchs
and
sub-
garchs
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Here's
agood
overviewfromThe
Washington
Post,with
one
morsel
for
illustration
...
Since
the
1980s,
Trump
and
his
family
members
have
made
numerous
trips
to
Moscow
in
search
of
business
opportunities,
and
they
have
relied
on
Russian
investors
to
buy
their
properties
around
the
world.
Russians
make
up
a
pretty
disproportionate
cross-
section
of
a
lot
of
our
assets,
Trumps
son,
Donald
Jr.,
told
a
real
estate
conference
in
2008,
according
to
an
account
posted
on
the
website
of
eTurboNews,
a
trade
publication.
We
see
a
lot
of
money
pouring
in
from
Russia.
3.
One
example
of
this
is
the
Trump
Soho
development
in
Manhattan,
one
of
Trump's
largest
recent
endeavors.
The
project
was
hit
with
a
series
of
lawsuits
in
response
to
some
typically
Trumpian
efforts
to
defraud
investors
by
making
fraudulent
claims
about
the
financial
health
of
the
project.
Emerging
out
of
that
litigation
however
wasnews
about
secret
financing
for
the
project
from
Russia
and
Kazakhstan.
Most
attention
about
the
project
has
focused
on
the
presence
of
a
twice
imprisoned
Russian
immigrant
with
extensive
ties
to
the
Russian
criminal
underworld.
But
that's
not
the
most
salient
part
of
the
story.
As
theTimesput
it,
"Mr.
Lauria
brokered
a
$50
million
investment
in
Trump
SoHo
and
three
other
Bayrock
projects
by
an
Icelandic
firm
preferred
by
wealthy
Russians
in
favor
with
President
Vladimir
V.
Putin,
according
to
a
lawsuit
against
Bayrock
by
one
of
its
former
executives.
The
Icelandic
company,
FL
Group,
was
identified
in
a
Bayrock
investor
presentation
as
a
strategic
partner,
along
with
Alexander
Mashkevich,
a
billionaire
once
charged
in
a
corruption
case
involving
fees
paid
by
a
Belgian
company
seeking
business
in
Kazakhstan
that
case
was
settled
with
no
admission
of
guilt."
Another
suit
alleged
the
project
"occasionally
received
unexplained
infusions
of
cash
from
accounts
in
Kazakhstan
and
Russia."
Sounds
completely
legit.
Read
both
articles:
After
his
bankruptcy
and
business
failures
roughly
a
decade
ago
Trump
has
had
an
increasingly
difficult
time
finding
sources
of
capital
for
new
investments.
As
I
noted
above,
Trump
has
been
blackballed
by
all
major
US
banks
with
the
exception
of
Deutschebank,
which
is
of
course
a
foreign
bank
with
a
major
US
presence.
He
has
steadied
and
rebuilt
his
financial
empire
with
a
heavy
reliance
on
capital
from
Russia.
At
a
minimum
the
Trump
organization
is
receiving
lots
of
investment
capital
from
people
close
to
Vladimir
Putin.
Trump's
tax
returns
would
likely
clarify
the
depth
of
his
connections
to
and
dependence
on
Russian
capital
aligned
with
Putin.
And
in
case
you're
keeping
score
at
home:
no,
that's
not
reassuring.
4.
Then
there's
Paul
Manafort,
Trump's
nominal
'campaign
chair'
who
now
functions
as
campaign
manager
and
top
advisor.
Manafort
spent
most
of
the
last
decade
as
top
campaign
and
communications
advisor
for
Viktor
Yanukovych,
the
pro-
Russian
Ukrainian
Prime
Minister
and
then
President
whose
ouster
in
2014
led
to
the
on-
going
crisis
and
proxy
war
in
Ukraine.
Yanukovych
was
and
remains
a
close
Putin
ally.
Manafort
is
running
Trump's
campaign.
5.
Trump's
foreign
policy
advisor
on
Russia
and
Europe
isCarter
Page,
a
man
whose
entire
professional
career
has
revolved
around
investments
in
Russia
and
who
has
deep
and
continuing
financial
and
employment
ties
to
Gazprom.
If
you're
not
familiar
with
Gazprom,
imagine
if
most
or
all
of
the
US
energy
industry
were
rolled
up
into
a
single
company
and
it
were
personally
controlled
by
the
US
President
who
used
it
as
a
source
of
revenue
and
patronage.
That
is
Gazprom's
role
in
the
Russian
political
and
economic
system.
It
is
no
exaggeration
to
say
that
you
cannot
be
involved
with
Gazprom
at
the
very
high
level
which
Page
has
been
without
being
wholly
in
alignment
with
Putin's
policies.
Those
ties
also
allow
Putin
to
put
Page
out
of
business
at
any
time.
6.
Over
the
course
of
the
last
year,
Putin
hasaligned
all
Russian
state
controlled
media
behind
Trump.
As
Frank
Foerexplains
here,
this
fits
a
pattern
with
how
Putin
has
sought
to
prop
up
politicians
across
Europe,
often
with
direct
or
covert
infusions
of
money.
In
some
cases
this
is
because
they
support
Russia-
backed
policies
in
others
it
is
simply
because
they
sow
discord
in
Western
aligned
states.
Of
course,
Trump
has
repeatedly
praised
Putin,
not
only
in
the
abstract
but
often
for
the
authoritarian
policies
and
patterns
of
government
which
have
most
soured
his
reputation
around
the
world.
7.
Here's
where
it
gets
more
interesting.
This
is
one
of
a
handful
of
developments
that
tipped
me
from
seeing
all
this
as
just
a
part
of
Trump's
larger
shadiness
to
something
more
specific
and
ominous
about
the
relationship
between
Putin
and
Trump.
As
TPM's
Tierney
Sneedexplained
in
this
article,
one
of
the
most
enduring
dynamics
of
GOP
conventions
(there's
a
comparable
dynamic
on
the
Dem
side)
is
more
mainstream
nominees
battling
conservative
activists
over
the
party
platform,
with
activists
trying
to
check
all
the
hardline
ideological
boxes
and
the
nominees
trying
to
soften
most
or
all
of
those
edges.
This
is
one
thing
that
made
the
Trump
convention
very
different.
The
Trump
Camp
was
totally
indifferent
to
the
platform.
So
party
activists
were
able
to
write
one
of
the
most
conservative
platforms
in
history.
Not
with
Trump's
backing
but
because
he
simply
didn't
care.With
one
big
exception:
Trump's
team
mobilized
the
nominee's
traditional
mix
of
cajoling
and
strong-
arming
on
one
point:changing
the
party
platform
on
assistance
to
Ukraine
against
Russian
military
operationsin
eastern
Ukraine.
For
what
it's
worth
(and
it's
not
worth
much)
I
am
quite
skeptical
of
most
Republicans
call
for
aggressively
arming
Ukraine
to
resist
Russian
aggression.
But
the
single-
mindedness
of
this
focus
on
this
one
issue
-
in
the
context
of
total
indifference
to
everything
else
in
the
platform
-
speaks
volumes.
This
does
not
mean
Trump
is
controlled
by
or
in
the
pay
of
Russia
or
Putin.
It
can
just
as
easily
be
explained
by
having
many
of
his
top
advisors
having
spent
years
working
in
Putin's
orbit
and
being
aligned
with
his
thinking
and
agenda.
But
it
is
certainly
no
coincidence.
Again,
in
the
context
of
near
total
indifference
to
the
platform
and
willingness
to
let
party
activists
write
it
in
any
way
they
want,
his
team
zeroed
in
on
one
fairly
obscure
plank
to
exert
maximum
force
and
it
just
happens
to
be
the
one
most
important
to
Putin
in
terms
of
US
policy.
Add
to
this
that
his
most
conspicuous
foreign
policy
statements
track
not
only
with
Putin's
positions
but
those
in
which
Putin
is
most
intensely
interested.
Aside
from
Ukraine,
Trump's
suggestion
that
the
US
and
thus
NATO
mightnotcome
to
the
defense
of
NATO
member
states
in
the
Baltics
in
the
case
of
a
Russian
invasion
is
a
case
in
point.
There
are
many
other
things
people
are
alleging
about
hacking
and
all
manner
of
other
mysteries.
But
those
points
are
highly
speculative,
some
verging
on
conspiratorial
in
their
thinking.
I
ignore
them
here
because
I've
wanted
to
focus
on
unimpeachable,
undisputed
and
publicly
known
facts.
These
alone
paint
a
stark
and
highly
troubling
picture.
To
put
this
all
into
perspective,
if
Vladimir
Putin
were
simply
the
CEO
of
a
major
American
corporation
and
there
wasthis
much
moneyflowing
in
Trump's
direction,
combined
withthis
much
solicitousnessof
Putin's
policy
agenda,
it
would
set
off
alarm
bells
galore.
That
is
not
hyperbole
or
exaggeration.
And
yet
Putin
is
not
the
CEO
of
an
American
corporation.
He's
the
autocrat
who
rules
a
foreign
state,
with
an
increasingly
hostile
posture
towards
the
United
States
and
a
substantial
stockpile
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
stakes
involved
in
finding
out
'what's
going
on'
as
Trump
might
put
it
are
quite
a
bit
higher.
There
is
something
between
a
non-
trivial
and
a
substantial
amount
of
circumstantial
evidence
for
a
financial
relationship
between
Trump
and
Putin
or
a
non-
tacit
alliance
between
the
two
men.
Even
if
you
draw
no
adverse
conclusions,
Trump's
financial
empire
is
heavily
leveraged
and
has
a
deep
reliance
on
capital
infusions
from
oligarchs
and
other
sources
of
wealth
aligned
with
Putin.
That's
simply
not
something
that
can
be
waved
off
or
ignored.

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Forwarded
message
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
From:Don
Date:
Mon,
Jul
25,
2016
at
8:01
AM
putin-
weaponized-
wikileaks-
influence-
election-
american-
president/130163/?
How
Putin
Weaponized
Wikileaks
to
Influence
the
Election
of
an
AmericanPresident
Evidence
suggests
that
a
Russian
intelligence
group
was
the
source
of
the
most
recent
Wikileaks
intel
dump,
which
was
aimed
to
influence
the
U.S.
election
July
24,
2016
By
Patrick
Tucker
Close
your
eyes
and
imagine
that
ahacking
group
backed
by
Russian
President
Vladimir
Putin
broke
into
the
email
system
of
a
majorU.S.political
party.
The
group
stole
thousands
of
sensitive
messages
and
then
published
them
through
an
obliging
third
party
in
a
way
that
was
strategically
timed
to
influence
the
United
States
presidential
election.
Now
open
your
eyes,
because
thats
what
justhappened.
On
Friday,
Wikileaks
published
20,000
emails
stolen
from
the
Democratic
National
Committee.
They
reveal,
among
other
things,thuggish
infighting,
a
push
bya
topDNCofficialto
use
Bernie
Sanders
religious
convictions
against
him
in
the
South,
and
attemptsto
strong-
armmedia
outlets.
In
other
words,
they
reveal
the
Washington
campaign
monster
for
what
itis.
But
leave
aside
the
purported
content
of
the
Wikileaks
data
dump
(to
which
numerous
other
outlets
have
devoted
considerable
attention)
and
consider
the
source.Considerable
evidence
shows
that
the
Wikileaks
dump
was
an
orchestrated
act
by
the
Russian
government,
working
through
proxies,
to
undermine
Hillary
Clintons
This
has
all
the
hallmarks
of
tradecraft.
The
only
rationale
to
release
such
data
from
the
Russian
bulletproof
host
was
to
empower
one
candidate
against
another.
The
Cold
War
is
alive
and
well,
Tom
Kellermann,
theCEOof
Strategic
Cyber
Ventures
toldDefenseOne.
Heres
Subscribe
the
timeline:On
Receive
June
daily
14,
email
cybersecurity
updates:
company
CrowdStrike,
Subscribe
under
to
contract
the
with
Defense
theDNC,
One
announced
daily.
in
a
Be
blog
the
post
first
that
to
two
receive
separate
updates.
Russian
intelligence
groups
had
gained
access
to
theDNCnetwork.
One
gained
access
in
April.
The
other,COZYBEAR,
(also
called
Cozy
Duke
andAPT29)
first
breached
the
network
in
the
summer
of2015.
Cybersecurity
company
FireEye
in
2014
and
was
quick
to
point
out
a
clear
Kremlin
connection.
We
suspect
the
Russian
government
sponsors
the
group
because
of
the
organizations
it
targets
and
the
data
it
steals.
Additionally,APT29
appeared
to
cease
operations
on
Russian
holidays,
and
their
work
hours
seem
to
align
with
theUTC+3
time
zone,
which
contains
cities
such
as
Moscow
and
St.
Petersburg,
they
wrote
in
their
report
on
the
said
that
the
group
looks
like
it
has
sponsorship
from
the
Russian
government
due
in
large
part
to
the
level
of
sophistication
behind
the
groupsattacks.
Its
The
the
Cold
same
group
War
that
is
hit
alive
theState
and
Department,
well
the
White
Tom
House,
Kellermann,CEOof
and
Strategic
the
Cyber
civilian
Ventures
email
of
theJoint
Chiefs
of
Staff.The
groups
modus
operandi
(a
spearphishing
attack
that
uploads
adistinctiveremote
access
tool
on
the
targets
computer)
is
well
known
to
cyber-
In
hisblog
poston
Alperovitchwrote
Weve
had
lots
of
experience
with
both
of
these
actors
attempting
to
target
our
customers
in
the
past
and
know
them
well.
In
fact,
our
team
considers
them
some
of
the
best
adversaries
out
of
all
the
numerous
nation-
state,
criminal
and
groups
we
encounter
on
a
daily
basis.Their
tradecraft
is
superb,
operational
security
second
to
none
and
the
extensive
usage
of
living-
off-
the-
land
techniques
enables
them
to
easily
bypass
many
security
solutions
theyencounter.
The
next
day,
an
individual
calling
himself
Guccifer
2.0claimedto
be
the
culprit
behind
the
breach
and
released
key
documents
to
back
up
the
claim,writing:Shame
onCrowdStrike.
Related:What
the
Joint
Chiefs
Email
Hack
Tells
Us
About
theDNCBreach
Related:The
Ukrainian
Blackout
and
the
Future
ofWar
Crowdstrike
stood
by
their
original
analysis,
writing:
these
claims
do
nothing
to
lessen
our
findings
relating
to
the
Russian
governments
involvement,
portions
of
which
we
have
documented
for
the
public
and
the
greater
securitycommunity.
Other
security
firms
offered
independent
analysis
and
reached
the
same
conclusion.
The
group
Fidelis
undertook
theirown
investigationand
found
Crowdstrike
to
becorrect.
A
Twitter
user
at
the
metadata
on
the
docs
that
Guccifer
2.0
provided
in
his
blog
post
and
found
literal
Russiansignatures.
His
findings
were
backed
up
by
Dan
Goodin
atArs
Technica.
Given
the
evidence
combined
with
everything
else,
I
think
its
a
strong
attribution
to
one
of
the
Russian
intelligence
agencies,
toMotherboard.
Motherboardreporter
Lorenzo
Franceschi-
Bicchierai
actually
conversed
with
Guccifer
2.0
over
Twitter.
The
hacker,
who
claimed
to
be
Romanian,
answered
questions
in
short
sentences
that
were
filled
with
mistakes
according
to
several
Romanian
native
speakers,
Bicchierifound.
A
large
body
of
evidence
suggests
that
Guccifer
2.0
is
a
smokescreen
that
the
actual
culprits
employed
to
hide
their
involvement
in
thebreach.
That
would
be
consistent
with
Russian
information
and
influence
operations.
Russian
propagandists
have
been
caught
hiring
actors
to
portray
victims
of
manufactured
atrocities
or
crimes
for
news
reports
(as
was
the
case
when
Viktoria
Schmidt
pretended
to
have
been
attacked
by
Syrian
refugees
in
Germany
for
Russias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),
or
faking
on-
scene
news
reporting
(as
shown
in
a
leaked
video
in
which
reporter
Maria
Katasonova
is
revealed
to
be
in
a
darkened
room
with
explosion
sounds
playing
in
the
background
rather
than
on
a
battlefield
in
Donetsk
when
a
light
is
switched
on
during
the
recording),
notes
aRANDreportfrom
earlier
inJuly.
The
use
of
Wikileaks
as
the
publishing
platform
served
to
legitimize
the
information
dump,
which
also
containsa
large
amount
of
personal
informationrelated
to
democratic
donors
such
as
social
security
and
credit
card
numbers.
This
suggests
that
Wikileaks
didnt
perform
a
thorough
analysis
of
the
documents
before
they
released
them,
or
simply
didntcare.
Its
the
latest
installment
in
a
trend
that
information
security
researcher
Bruce
Schneier
callsorganizational
doxingand
that
Lawfares
Nicholas
Weaver
callsthe
weaponization
ofWikileaks.
The
most
remarkable
example
of
which,
prior
to
theDNCincident,
was
the
June
2015
the
publication
of
several
sets
ofNSArecords
related
to
government
intelligence
collection
targets
The
data
itself
was
not
remarkable,
but
it
did
harmU.S.relations
and
may
have
Wikileaks
doesnt
seem
to
care
that
they
are
being
used
as
a
weapon
by
unknown
parties,
instead
calling
themselves
a
library
of
mass
education.
But
the
rest
of
us
The
evidence
so
far
suggests
its
a
weapon
that
Putin
used
to
great
effect
lastweek.

--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
--
klaussegbers
phone+493083852088
fax+493083853616
Senttime: 07/27/201610:03:25AM
FW:[CHOASTHEORYONDISPLAY--OR---WELCOMETODUGIN'SWORLD][PB]U.S.intel:"highconfidence"thatRUbehindDNCemails
Subject: hacks..[PP]DNCHACKERWORKFORRU[VRT/JDDDPARTI]OBHintsPossibleMotiveforRUtoHelpTrump..[CK]Putin
LeverageoverHil
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Wednesday,July27,201610:00AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[CHOASTHEORYONDISPLAY--OR---WELCOMETODUGIN'SWORLD][PB]U.S.intel:"highconfidence"thatRUbehindDNC
emailshacks..[PP]DNCHACKERWORKFORRU[VRT/JDDDPARTI]OBHintsPossibleMotiveforRUtoHelpTrump..[CK]Putin
LeverageoverHila...
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@earthlink.net>
Date:Wed,Jul27,2016at12:03PM
Subject:Fwd:BreakingNews:U.S.intelligenceagenciesaresaidtohave"highconfidence"thatRussiawasbehindthehackof
DemocraticPartyemails
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
UnrestrictedWarfareJumpsAcrossTheAtlantic.Whosaidweneedn'tworry,thattheUSwouldneverbeinvadedbecauseit's
protectedonbothflanksbyoceans?Well,asyoulaysleeping,PutinjustjumpedrightintotheheartofthecherishedAmerican
politicalprocess.It'snotDemocratsorRepublicans.He'srubbingallthenation'snosesinpoo.OK,so,now,whatisanyone
goingtodoaboutit?
From:NYTimes.comNewsAlert<nytdirect@nytimes.com>
Date:July26,20166:25:54PMPDT
To:ap.borisow@earthlink.net
Subject:BreakingNews:U.S.intelligenceagenciesaresaidtohave"highconfidence"
thatRussiawasbehindthehackofDemocraticPartyemails
Addnytdirect@nytimes.comtoyouraddressbook.
July26,2016 NYTimes.com
BreakingNewsAlert
J u l y
2 6 ,
2 0 1 6

BREAKINGNEWS
U.S.intelligenceagenciesaresaidto
have"highconfidence"thatRussia
wasbehindthehackofDemocratic
Partyemails
Tuesday,July26,20169:14PMEDT
TheAmericanintelligenceagencieshavecautionedthattheyareuncertainwhether
theelectronicbreak-inatthecommitteescomputersystemswasintendedasfairly
routinecyberespionageofthekindtheUnitedStatesalsoconductsaroundthe
worldoraspartofanefforttomanipulatethe2016presidentialelection.
TheemailswerereleasedbyWikiLeaks,whosefounder,JulianAssangehasmadeit
clearthathehopedtoharmHillaryClintonschancesofwinningthepresidency.Itis
unclearhowthedocumentsmadetheirwaytothegroup.
Readmore
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Copyright2015TheNewYorkTimesCompany|620EighthAvenueNewYork,NY10018
From:PeterPaluch<4petrop@verizon.net>
Date:Wed,Jul27,2016at9:35AM
Subject:HeReallyWorksforRussia/DNCHACKERUNMASKED
To:VictorRud<yatato1@aol.com>,myroslaw@smorodsky.com,romashka1@aol.com,BrianSpadora
<brianspadora@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
DNCHackerUnmasked:HeReallyWorksforRussia,ResearchersSay
ShaneHarrisandNancyA.Youssef,DailyBeast26/7/16
ThehackerwhoclaimedtocompromisetheDNCsworehewasRomanian.Butnewresearchshowsheworkeddirectlyforthe
VladimirPutingovernmentinMoscow.
ThehackerwhoclaimstohavestolenemailsfromtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandprovidedthemtoWikiLeaksisactually
anagentoftheRussiangovernmentandpartofanorchestratedattempttoinfluenceU.S.mediacoveragesurroundingthe
presidentialelection,asecurityresearchgroupconcludedonTuesday.
Theresearchers,atArlington,Va.-basedThreatConnect,tracedtheself-describedRomanianhackerGuccifer2.0backtoan
InternetserverinRussiaandtoadigitaladdressthathasbeenlinkedinthepasttoRussianonlinescams.Farfrombeingasingly,
sophisticatedhacker,Guccifer2.0ismorelikelyacollectionofpeoplefromthepropagandaarmoftheRussiangovernmentmeant
todeflectattentionawayfromMoscowastheforcebehindtheDNChacksandleaksofemails,theresearchersfound.
ThreatConnectisthefirstknowngroupofexpertstolinktheself-proclaimedhackertoaRussianoperation,amidstanongoing
FBIinvestigationandapresidentialcampaignrockedbythereleaseofDNCemailsthathaveembarrassedseniorpartyleaders
andinflamedintrapartytensionsturningtheDemocraticNationalConvention.Theemailsrevealedthatpartyinsidersplottedways
toundermineSen.BernieSanderspresidentialbid.
Thesearebureaucrats,notsophisticatedhackers,RichBarger,ThreatConnectschiefintelligenceofficer,toldTheDailyBeast.
Inblogpostsandininterviewswithjournalists,Bargersaid,Guccifer2.0hasmadeinconsistentremarksandgivenaversionof
howhepenetratedtheDNCnetworksthattechnicallydontmakesense.Forinstance,thehackerclaimstohaveusedasoftware
flawthatdidntexistuntilDecember2015inordertobreakintotheDNCnetworkslastsummer.
InaninterviewwithMotherboardinJune,thehackeralsorefusedtospeakinRomanian,anotherindicationthathewasntwhohe
claimedtobe.
ThreatConnectalsofoundthatGuccifer2.0wasattemptingtomaskhistruelocation,inRussia,bycommunicatingthroughan
InternetservicebasedinFrance.Suchmaskingisnotuncommoningovernment-sponsoredoperations,norisitparticularlydifficult
toaccomplish.
TheresearchersconcludedthatGuccifer2.0isactuallyanapparitioncreatedunderahastyRussian[denialanddeception]
campaigntoinfluencepoliticaleventsintheU.S.(ThenewssiteVocativwasthefirsttoreportontheseconclusions,andVocativ
reporterKevinColliersuppliedsomedatatotheresearchers.)
Maintainingaruseofthisnaturewithinboththephysicalandvirtualdomainsrequiresbelievableandverifiableeventswhichdonot
contradictoneanother.Thatisnotthecasehere,theresearcherswroteinablogpost.BytracingGuccifer2.0sInternet
infrastructure,theresearchersconcludedheorthegroupisaRussia-controlledplatformthatcanactasacensoredhacktivist.
MoscowdetermineswhatGuccifer2.0sharesandthuscanattempttoselectivelyimpactmediacoverage,andpotentiallythe
election,inawaythatultimatelybenefitstheirnationalobjectives.
ThatfindingmatchesthepoliticalmotivethatU.S.officialstoldTheDailyBeasttheyhaveseeninRussiashackingoftheDNC.
TheFBIsaidonMondaythatitwasinvestigatingthebreach,whichagrowingnumberwithintheObamaadministrationbelieve
wasdesignedtoembarrassDemocrats,exacerbatetensionsbetweenHillaryClintonandherformerrivalBernieSandersaswell
ashisvotersandultimatelytogiveaboosttoRepublicannomineeDonaldTrump.
OnTuesday,PresidentObamasaidthatwhiletheFBIisinvestigating,expertshaveattributedthistotheRussiansandthatitwas
"possibletheleakwasdesignedtohelptheTrumpcampaign.
ResearchersfromcybersecuritycompanyCrowdStrikehavepubliclyattributedtheDNCbreachtotheworkoftwoknown
RussiangovernmenthackergroupsthathavealsotargetedU.S.governmentagencies,theWhiteHouse,andAmericanuniversities.
ThetacticsandtechniquesinthosecampaignsmatchupwithforensicevidencegatheredfromtheDNCbreach.
ThreatConnectsfindingsseemtounderscoretheextenttowhichtheRussiangovernment,atleastinitially,wantedtoobscureits
roleinaso-calledactivemeasurescampaigndesignedtocausemischiefintheU.S.election,saidBarger,aformerU.S.Army
intelligenceanalyst.
ButitsnotclearwhereintheRussiangovernment,oritssphereofinfluence,Guccifer2.0sits.
WikiLeakshasnotidentifieditssourcefortheDNCemails,eventhoughGuccifer2.0claimstohaveprovidedthem.A
representativeoftheanti-secrecyorganizationtoldTheDailyBeastonMondaythattheywereverypleasedwiththisgreatscoop
indatajournalism,referringtothepublicationoftheDNCemails.Journalistsatmanyoutletsandthegeneralpublicareall
pitchingintounderstandthiswonderfuldatasetwhichdescribeshowtheDNCreallyworks.OurpublicationofleakedDNC
emailsandthemanyDNChacksoverthelasttwoyearsareseparateincidentsandshouldnotbeconflated.
WikiLeaksdidntrespondtoGuccifer2.0sclaimsortoaccusationsfromU.S.officialsinrecentdaysthattheRussiangovernment
orchestratedtheleaktothegroup.
InaSkypeinterviewMondaywithNBCNews,WikileaksfounderJulianAssangerejectedsuggestionsthattheRussianswere
behindtheDNChack,sayingthepartysserversecuritywassoweak,itcouldhavebeenhackedbyvariousgroups.
Theemailsthatwehavereleasedaredifferentsetsofdocumentstothedocumentsofthose[that]peoplehaveanalyzed,hetold
NBCsRichardEngel.
From:VRT
Subject:AfterDNCleaks,ObamahintsatpossiblemotiveforRussiatohelpTrump
WAZ:Thisstoryshouldbetitled(inhonorofRaisingArizona):LOOKWHO'STALKING
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/after-dnc-leaks-obama-hints-at-possible-motive-for-russia-to-help-trump
/2016/07/26/cfd33692-538a-11e6-bbf5-957ad17b4385_story.html
AfterDNCleaks,ObamahintsatpossiblemotiveforRussiatohelpTrump
Subject:"AfterDNCleaks,OBAMAhintsatpossibleMOTIVEforRussiatohelpTrump,"washingtonpost.com,7/27
[ED:PARTONEONJDDD7-27]
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
PresidentObamaonTuesdaywadedintothecontroversyovertheleakofDNCemails,sayingthehack
ofpartyrecordswascharacteristicofRussiangovernmentbehaviorWhatwedoknowisthatthe
Russianshackoursystems,notjustgovernmentsystemsbutprivatesystems.Whatthemotiveswerein
termsoftheleaks,allthatIcantsaydirectly.WhatIdoknowisthatDonaldTRUMPhasrepeatedly
expressedadmirationforPutin.
And:OfficialeditorialoftheNewYorkTimes:ThePUTIN-TRUMPadmirationsociety,nytimes.com,
7/27
WouldMr.PutinreallyinterfereintheAmericanpresidentialracetohelpMr.Trump,theRepublican
Partynominee,getelectedovertheDemocraticnominee,HillaryClinton?...itisbeingconsidereda
seriouspossibilityaftertheirreleaseonFridayofnearly20,000emailsstolenfromtheDNCcomputer
servers,manyofthemembarrassingtoDemocraticleadersTheDemocratsexpectmoreleaks.Itmay
taketimetoprovewhowasbehindthecyberattacks,butAmericanintelligenceagencieshavereportedly
toldtheWhiteHousethattheyhavehighconfidenceitwasRussia.Severalcybersecurityfirmsthat
examinedthemetadatasaiditlookedliketheworkoftwoRussianintelligenceagenciesTheFBIis
investigating.Mr.TrumphasdismissedtheideaofaRussianinterventiononhisbehalfasajoke.Buthis
pastwordsaboutMr.PutinhavecausedsometosuspectthatMoscowwouldseektogiveMr.trumpan
edgeintheelection.
And:RussianSTATE-SPONSOREDACTORSwentafteraDNCstafferinvestigatingPaul
MANAFORTs[Trumpscampaignmanager]activitiesinUkraine:SeeMichaelISIKOFF,Exclusive:
SuspectedRussianhackofDNCWIDENSincludespersonalemailofstafferresearching
Manafort,yahoo.com/news,7/25
JustweeksaftershestartedpreparingoppositionresearchfilesonDonaldTrumpscampaignchairman
paulManafortlastspring,DNCconsultantAlexandraChalupagotanalarmingmessagewhenshelogged
ontoherpersonalYahooaccount.Importantactionrequired,apop-upfromaYahoosecurityteamthat
isinformallyknownastheParanoids.Westronglysuspectthatyouraccounthasbeenthetargetof
state-sponsoredactors.ChalupawhohadbeendraftingmemosandwritingmemosaboutManaforts
connectionstoPRO-RUSSIANLEADERSinUkrainequicklyalertedtopDNCofficials.Chalupas
messagestandsout:itisthefirstindicationthatthereachofthehackerswhopenetratedtheDNChas
extendedBEYONDtheofficialemailaccountsofcommitteeofficialsAfterChalupasenttheemailto
[hersupervisor]ittriggeredhigh-levelconcernswithintheDNC,giventhesensitivenatureofherwork.
ThatswhenweknewitwastheRUSSIANS,saidaDemocraticPartysourceWetoldhertostop
herresearch.ThelasttimesomebodybrokeintotheDNC[Watergate],itledtotheresignationofa
president,saidtheDemocraticPartysecuritysource.
And:DanaMILBANK,ATrump-stylespeculationontheGOPandPUTIN,washingtonpost.com,
7/27op-ed
And:LililiaSHEVTSOVAdiscussestheRussiantraceintheDNC
scandal:http://blog.newsru.com/article/27july2016/sled
And:SodoesnotedcolumnistVitaliiPORTNIKOV,Manafort,YanukovychandTrump
:http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/2789944.html
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Subject:WhyPutinLovesHillary
WhyPutinLovesHillary
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/why-putin-loves-hillary/
ThemediaaresheddingcrocodiletearsforHillaryClinton.WhyPutinHatesHillaryistheheadlineoveraPoliticostoryby
MichaelCrowleyandJuliaIoffeaboutthestolenDemocraticNationalCommittee(DNC)emails.Tothecontrary,Russian
PresidentVladimirPutinlovesHillary.Hehastakenadvantageofheronce,intheRussiaReset,andispreparingtotake
advantageofheragain.Sheistheultimatedupe.PutinhasHillaryjustwherehewantsher.HehasaccesstosomeofHillarys
deepestanddarkestsecrets.
TheideathatMrs.ClintonandtheDNChavebeenvictimizedbyPutinisabsurd.ThisisntPutinsfault.ItsthefaultoftheDNC.
Theydidntmaintainsecurityovertheiremailoperations.
But,ofcourse,neitherdidHillary.
PoliticosaysPutinisangryatClintonforchallengingthefairnessofRussianelections.Almostoncue,Timemagazineisoutwith
astorytakingasimilarline.TimesaysPutinismadthatHillaryencouragedprotestsagainsthisrule.Inretaliation,thestorygoes,
hishackersstoletheDNCemails.
TheotherpropagandalinefromthemediaisthatPutinfavorsDonaldJ.TrumpoverHillarybecauseTrumphasbusinessdealsin
Russia,andmayevenbeindebttosomeofPutinsfriends.Accordingtothislogic,whichmakessomesense,Putinhasleverage
overTrump,too.
Therewillbeawaytotestthistheory.

SenatorTomCotton(R-AR),amemberoftheSenateIntelligenceCommittee,suggeststhatTrumpsviewsonRussiamaychange
oncehesbriefedonRussiasaggressiveintentions.ThisisanexcerptofanexchangewithCottonfromaCNBCinterview:
CNBCsJohnHarwood:OneofthequestionsthathasbeenraisedaboutDonaldTrumpis,IshemorefriendlywithRussiathan
itisinAmerica'sbestintereststobe?
SenatorCotton:VladimirPutinwasaKGBspyandhenevergotoverthat.HedoesnothaveAmericasbestinterestsatheart
andhedoesnothaveanyAmericaninterestsatheart.Isuspect,afterthisweek,whenDonaldTrumpisthenomineeandhebegins
toreceiveclassifiedbriefings,similarbriefingstowhatIreceiveasamemberoftheIntelligenceCommittee,hemayhaveadifferent
perspectiveonVladimirPutinandwhatRussiaisdoingtoAmerica'sinterestsandalliesinEuropeandtheMiddleEastandAsia.
WhatCottonissayingisthatTrumpssoft-on-Russiapoliciescould,andshould,changeafterthesebriefingshaveoccurred.Ifthey
donot,thenRepublicanswillhaveaseriousproblemwiththeirnominee.
Ontheotherhand,Mrs.ClintonwasburnedoncebyPutin,duringtheRussianreset,andcouldgetburnedagain.Rememberthat
theAssociatedPressreportedlastOctoberthattheprivateemailserverrunninginHillaryRodhamClintonshomebasementwhen
shewassecretaryofstatewasconnectedtotheInternetinwaysthatmadeitmorevulnerabletohackerswhileusingsoftwarethat
couldhavebeenexploited
FBIDirectorJamesComeyconfirmedthattheemailswereatrisk.Hesaidthatwhileinvestigatorsdidnotfinddirectevidencethat
hostileactorshackedintoMrs.Clintonspersonale-maildomain,giventhenatureofthesystemandoftheactorspotentially
involved,weassessthatwewouldbeunlikelytoseesuchdirectevidence(emphasisadded).Hedidsaythathostileactors
gainedaccesstotheprivatecommerciale-mailaccountsofpeoplewithwhomSecretaryClintonwasinregularcontactfromher
personalaccount.Headded,WealsoassessthatSecretaryClintonsuseofapersonalemaildomainwasbothknownbyalarge
numberofpeopleandreadilyapparent.ShealsousedherpersonalemailextensivelywhileoutsidetheUnitedStates,including
sendingandreceivingwork-relatedemailsintheterritoryofsophisticatedadversaries.Giventhatcombinationoffactors,we
assessitispossiblethathostileactorsgainedaccesstoSecretaryClintonspersonale-mailaccount.
Fromasecuritystandpoint,therefore,onehastoassumethatthesehostileactorsdidinfactgainaccesstoheremailsystem.Those
hostileactorshavetoincludeRussia.Youcannotproceedonanyotherassumption.
InaJuly25editorial,TheWashingtonPostblamedTrumpfortheRussianhackoftheDNC,sayinghehadsomehowgiventhem
themotivationforsuchanattackbecauseofhissoft-on-Russianforeignpolicypositions.ThePostsaidthatRussiafavorsTrump
overHillaryandwantedtosabotagehercandidacywiththeleakoftheDNCemailsontheeveofherconvention.
ButifRussiahasMrs.Clintonsemails,andtheevidencestronglypointsinthatdirection,itcanbesafelyassumedtheyhave
potentialblackmailmaterialtouseagainsther.Thoseemailsprobablyinvolvenotonlyanumberofsensitivegovernmentactivities
butinformationaboutMrs.Clintonpersonally,herfamily,theClintonFoundationandheraides.Thematerialcouldinvolve
informationofafinancialorpersonalnature.
Moscowsjudgment,thePosteditorialclaimed,isthatitstandstoreapageopoliticalwindfallifDonaldTrumpiselected
president.ThatwillonlybethecaseifTrumppersistsinhispro-Russiapolicyandignorestheintelligenceinformationabout
RussiasaggressiveintentionsthatSenatorCottonsayshewillreceive.Trumpstillhastimetoreversecourseonmattersinvolving
Russia,NATOandnationalsecurity.
Bycontrast,MoscowalreadyreapedageopoliticalwindfallwhenHillarywassecretaryofstateandusedtheresettoinvade
UkraineandexpandmilitarilyintotheMiddleEast.Despiteanti-Russianlanguageinthe2016Democraticplatform,Mrs.Clinton
hasshownextremelybadjudgmentonRussiainthepast.Itspossibleshehaschangedherposition.ButPutinhassomuch
potentiallydamaginginformationaboutMrs.ClintoninthoseemailsthatthisformerKGBofficermaythinkhecankeepherinline.
AllthathehastodotokeepaPresidentHillaryClintoninlineisthreatentoreleasesomeofthedamaginginformationalreadyin
hispossession.TheleakscouldcomethroughWikiLeaks,thesourceoftheDNCemails,ortheEdwardSnowdennetwork.
Thesearethechoices:TrumpcanreversecourseandsayanddotherightthingaboutRussia.HillarycantalktoughaboutRussia
duringthecampaignanddoPutinsbiddingunderthreatofblackmailaspresident.
Inshort,Mrs.Clintonisaprovenrisktonationalsecurity.SheisundereffectiveRussiancontrol.Trumpcouldturnouttobea
securityriskifhedeliberatelyignorestheevidenceofhostileRussianintentionsandaggressionthatisbeingpresentedtohim.We
canassumethatSenatorCottonwillfollowuponhiscommentstoCNBCandwatchTrumpforchangesinhisapproachtoRussia.
Americawillalsobewatching.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontacted
atcliff.kincaid@aim.org
Subject:ThePutin-TrumpAdmirationSociety/+[ED:PAYSPECIALATTENTIONTOTHEBBCPIECE]
To:
ThePutin-TrumpAdmirationSociety
ByTHEEDITORIALBOARDJULY27,2016
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/opinion/the-putin-trump-admiration-society.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=0
...regardlessofwhetherMr.PutinisouttohelpMr.Trump,voterswouldberighttoquestionthejudgmentofa
candidatewhohasshownsomuchadmirationforsuchadangerousadversary.
ReminderaboutBO'judgement(2012).
TheoriginalCNNvideoisnotavailable.T.
Thisismylastelection.AftermyelectionIhavemoreflexibility.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Py8BF0hHPnc
...MittRomney,theleadingRepublicanchallengertoMr.Obama,toldanaudienceinSanDiegothatthepresidents
remarkswereanalarmingandtroublingdevelopment.
NewtGingrich,whoistrailingindelegates,alsoseizedonMr.Obamasunguardedquote,tellingCNN,Imcurious:
howmanyothercountrieshasthepresidentpromisedthathedhavealotmoreflexibilitythemorninghedoesnthave
toanswertotheAmericanpeople?
BBCinTrumpdefense."Sovpadenie"?[ED:JUSTTOORICHFORWORDS:NEOSTALINISTCORBYN'S
MEDIACADRESDEFENDINGDONTHE(POSTERBOYBILLIONAIRE)TRUMP..ONBEHALFOF
VLAD????ONLYINDUGIN'SWORLD!!]
ArethereanyTrumplinkstoPutin?
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-36862749
From:BostonGlobe.com<newsletters@bostonglobe.com>
Subject:BreakingNewsAlert:TrumpurgesRussiatofindClinton'se-mails
To:wzarcusur@gmail.com
Viewthisemailinyourbrowser
BREAKING
DonaldTrumphasamessageforRussia:FindHillaryClintonse-mails.
InapressconferenceWednesday,TrumppracticallyaskedRussiatohackhis
Democraticrivalse-mailsasheslammedClintonandtheDemocraticPartyover
leakedmessages.
Heissuedaplea:Russia,ifyourelistening,Ihopeyoureabletofindthe30,000
emailsthataremissing.
TrumpalsosaidheknowsnothingaboutthehackoftheDemocraticNational
Committeee-mailsthatsecurityexpertsbelievemayhaveoriginatedinRussia.
Readthefullstory.
Senttime: 07/27/201609:36:43AM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUISINVOLVEDINUS
Subject: ELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWith
AmericansMinds+.[CL/K]Fwd:...
Sent:Tuesday,July26,20168:54PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUISINVOLVEDINUS
ELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWith
Date:Tue,Jul26,2016at11:52PM
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUIS
INVOLVEDINUSELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]
RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMinds+.[CL/K]Fwd:WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?[HU]
TrumpWouldMakeRussiaGreatAgain|NYDailyNews..[ADDFROMWD]AHORBULINCLASSIC:FIVE
SCENARIOSFORRU-UARELATIONS...
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Subject:RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack-TheDailyBeast
RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack-TheDailyBeast
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/26/putin-s-wicked-leaks-didn-t-start-with-the-dnc.html?
via=mobile&source=twitter
Subject:RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMinds/+
To:

RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack
Russiasintelligenceserviceshavealonghistoryofminglingsinisterfictionwithshardsoffactandleakingthrough
thirdpartiestocovertheirtracks.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/26/putin-s-wicked-leaks-didn-t-start-with-the-dnc.html
AnneApplebaum
this@FTarticlealsonotesrecentCzech,GermanhackingscandalsmaybelinkedtoRussia
Democratshacked:RussiatrailseesMoscowaccusedofwideraims
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e0b9a84-5278-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60.html#axzz4FSQFQVYI
...
...EversinceRussianhackersattemptedinMay2014tocorrupttheresultsoftheUkrainianpresidentialelection,
therehasbeengrowingconcernamongwesternintelligenceagenciesovertheKremlinsapparentglovesoff
approachwhenitcomestopoliticalsubversion.
ThosefearswerecompoundedjustonemonthlaterinJunethatyear,whentapesofsensitiveandexpletiveladen
conversationsbetweenseniorPolishpoliticianswereleaked,sinkingthehopesofRadoslawSikorski,thehawkish
formerforeignminister,foraseniorEUrole.
InJanuarythisyear,accordingtotheintelligenceofficial,emailshackedfromtheprimeministeroftheCzech
RepublicwerereleasedtopublicembarrassmentinanoperationthathadthefingerprintsofRussianagents.
AndinMay,theheadofGermanysdomesticintelligenceagency,theBfV,saidAPT28wasresponsiblefora
massiveattackontheGermanparliamentaswellasasustainedespionageoperationagainsttheCDUtheruling
partyofAngelaMerkel.
ThereallybigdeparturehereisthatthisisaverydirectinvolvementinUSdomesticpoliticsofakindthateven
undertheKGBwasonlyevercontemplatedonthemargins,saysJonathanEyal,internationaldirectoratthethink-
tankRusi.
Thereisnoway,saysMrEyal,thatsuchoperationswouldnotbeco-ordinatedandassessedwithinRussiafroma
centralauthorityattheveryhighestlevel.
Butwhatthisreallypointsto,MrEyalnotes,isthatthereisafeelinginMoscowthattheyarewinninginthis
confrontationwiththewest.Andtheyseenoreasonwhytheyshouldletup.
Exclusive:SuspectedRussianhackofDNCwidensincludespersonalemailofstaffer
researchingManafort
http://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-hacked-emails-of-dnc-oppo-researcher-point-to-russians-and-wider-penetration-
154121061.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma
POLITICO
PriebusonDNCleak:'TheRussiansdidn'twritetheemails'http://politi.co/2akQu6H|
Subject:WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?
To:"Zaryckyj,Walter"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/what-does-putin-have-on-hillary/
AndrewRosenthalofTheNewYorkTimesexaminesthequestionofwhohackedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeand
whetherthetrailleadstoRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.WeknowfromreliablereportingthatRussianhackersarenot
independentactors,andthattheyhavebeenbusy,hewrites.Anditseerie,atbest,thatJulianAssangesWikiLeakschosethis
momenttoreleasethestolenemails(andcompleteastrangetrianglethatrunsfromhimtoPutintoEdwardSnowden).
Forhispart,onhisTwitterpage,Snowdensaid,IfRussiahackedthe#DNC,theyshouldbecondemnedforit.Butduringthe
#Sonyhack,theFBIpresentedevidence.
ThisisfunnyonSnowdenspart.SnowdensitsinRussia,aguestofPutin,andAssangehasactedlikeanagentofRussia.Trevor
LoudonsreportonAssangedocumentshisservicetoMoscowandassociationswithanumberofMarxistorpro-Russiangroups.
Snowdenisprobablypersonallyinvolvedintheleakandcouldeasilygettothebottomofwhyithappened.
ThishastheappearanceofaforeignpowerdirectlyinterferinginanAmericanelection,andthatsnotsomethingtotakelightly,
NoahRothmanwritesinCommentary.Hegoeson,Ratherthanapplaudandleveragethisdevelopment,ashehas,DonaldTrump
wouldbemuchbetterservedbycondemningit.IftheRussiansaresetonunderminingtheDemocraticPartyinthiselection,it
wontbelongbeforethepublicisaskedtoconsiderwhythatmightbe.
Rothmanhasapoint,butthemoreimportantissueiswhytheDNCandthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonusedprivateor
unsecureserversthatwereopentotheseforeignadversaries.OnecanarguethatMrs.Clinton,inparticular,invitedthisforeign
meddlingintheelection.WhoknowswhattheRussiansstillhaveintheirbagoftricks?ThepointisthatMrs.Clintonisasecurity
riskandtheRussiansmaystillhaveemailstouseagainsther.
Pro-PutincommentatorDonHankreportedbackinJune,Iwasinvitedtoparticipateinaconversationamongagroupoffriends
whoarehopingthattheKremlinwillturnovertheircacheofHillaryemailsobtainedviatheRomanianhackerGucciferjustin
timetosmearherpriortotheNovemberelection.
Evenearlier,CatherineHerridgeofFoxNewsreportedbackinMaythattheRomanianhackerknownasGucciferhadclaimed
heeasilyandrepeatedlybreachedformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonspersonalemailserverinearly2013.TheClinton
campaigndeniedthecharge,butHerridgereportedthatGuccifersaidhefirstcompromisedClintonconfidantSidney
Blumenthal'sAOLaccount,inMarch2013,andusedthatasasteppingstonetotheClintonserver.
Gucciferhasbeenindictedbyafederalgrandjuryonchargesofwirefraud,unauthorizedaccesstoaprotectedcomputer,
aggravatedidentitytheft,cyberstalkingandobstructionofjustice.
Mrs.ClintonsemailsmaybeevenmorevaluablethanthedocumentsstolenandreleasedbySnowden.Afterall,Clintonsemails
discussedtheintentionsofU.S.policymakers.
ThisisactuallyanoldstoryinvolvingtheClintons.AsReedIrvineandIreportedbackin1998,theKenStarrreportonPresident
ClintonrevealedthatClintonhadwarnedhissexualplaythingMonicaLewinsky,aWhiteHouseintern,thataforeigngovernment
maybemonitoringtheirtelephoneconversationsandthattheyshouldconcoctacoverstorytoexplainthem.Hereisexactlywhat
theStarrreportsaysaboutthismatter:AccordingtoMs.Lewinsky,sheandthePresidenthadalengthyconversationthatday.He
toldherthathesuspectedthataforeignembassy(hedidnotspecifywhichone)wastappinghistelephones,andheproposed
coverstories.Ifeverquestioned,sheshouldsaythatthetwoofthemwerejustfriends.Ifanyoneeveraskedabouttheirphone
sex,sheshouldsaythattheyknewtheircallswerebeingmonitoredallalong,andthephonesexwasjustaput-on.
Nothinghasreallychanged,exceptthatemailshavenowbeenmonitoredandcompromisedinMrs.Clintonscase.
AswesaidbackinMay,Theevidencedemonstratesthatsheisafull-blownsecurityriskwhoshouldbeindictedforherreckless
criminalconductasSecretaryofState.Hillarymadeherselfintoasecurityrisk.
Nowwearewaitingforthenextshoetodrop.DoesithavesomethingtodowithBillClinton,theClintonFoundation,orHillarys
ownpersonalscandals?
Whateverthescandal,itsnotthefaultofDonaldJ.Trump.Trumpmayhavesomethingtoexplainregardinghisowntiestothe
Kremlin,butsodoesHillary.IfthetruthdoesntcomeoutbeforeElectionDay,itmeansthatMoscowmayhaveblackmailpower
overthepossiblefirstfemalepresidentoftheUnitedStates.
From:hunter@
Date:Tue,Jul26,2016at11:55AM
Subject:TrumpwouldmakeRussiagreatagain--NYDailyNewsEditorial
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/trumprussiagreatarticle1.2725698
MakeRussiagreatagain:WhetherornotRussianshackedtheDNCtoaidDonaldTrump,
theRepublicannomineeisdangerouslyfondofVladimirPutin
EDITORIALS
NEWYORKDAILYNEWS
Tuesday,July26,2016,4:10AM
Deeplydisturbingbutasyetunconfirmed:ThatRussianhackersmayhavebrokenintoDemocraticNational
CommitteecomputersfortheexpresspurposeofboostingthecampaignofDonaldTrump.
Knownbeyondanyreasonabledoubt:Trumpandhisteamhaveaperverseadmirationforandaseriesofstrange
relationshipswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandapro-Russianworld-viewthatrunsagainstthebest
interestsofAmericaintheworld.
TheWikiLeaks-facilitatedbreachoftheDNC,whichproducedmountainsofembarrassingrevelationsforthe
committeeandforcedtheresignationofChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultzloomslargeas
DemocratsgatherinPhiladelphiathisweek.
TheFBIsuspectsRussianintelligenceagencieswerebehindthemischief.Theymighthavebeenfreelancingthey
mighthavebeendoingtheRussianstrongmansbiddingtohelpelectTrump.
RichardA.Clarke:WhyPutinandISISwantTrumptowin
TheprospectofaforeignpowerwithinterestsoftendiametricallyopposedtooursmeddlinginanAmerican
presidentialelectioninthismannershouldmakevotersshudder.
Buthackornohack,TrumpsromanticviewofPutin,amanwhowantsnothingmorethantoexpandhissphereof
influenceandseeU.S.powerwane,iswell-established.Trump,whohasafetishforstrongmenofallstripes,has
repeatedlyheapedpraiseontherepressive,anti-democratic,expansionistPutinafriendtoregimesinIranand
Syriacallinghimamanhighlyrespectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.
WhenchallengedonthefactthatPutinkillsjournalists,politicalopponents,andinvadescountries,Trumpreplied,
Atleasthesaleader.
LastSeptember,whenFoxNewsBillOReillyaskedTrumpaboutPutinsmilitaryadventureinSyria
involvementadvertisedasanti-ISISthatwasinfactintendedtokillrebelschallengingRussianclientBasharAssad
TrumpsaidofPutin,whohadpraisedhim,Intermsofleadership,hesgettinganA.
Debbie,DonnaandtheDNC
Basedonthismutualadmirationsociety,itshouldcomeasnosurprisethatTrumphasexpressedwillingnessto
leaveNATOalliestwistinginthewind.AsNATOisthesinglegreatestcheckonRussianaggression,thatisagift
toPutin.
OrthatTrumpistasnixedaRepublicanplatformamendmentsettoincludestrongsupportforsendingAmerican
weaponstoUkrainetocounterRussianaggression.TopTrumpadviserPaulManafortwhoforthebetterpartof
adecadeworkedasatopaidetoformerUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovych,aPutinstoogesawtoit.
TherearefartoomanydotsconnectingTrumpandRussiatoavoidsteppingbackandseeingthewholescary
picture.
IsitacoincidencethatRussianstate-controlledmediaarecheeringonTrumpateveryturn?
IsitacoincidencethattopTrumpforeignpolicyadviserMichaelFlynn,aformergeneralvettedforaspotonhis
ticket,satnearPutinatacelebrationfortheRussianpropagandaoutletRT?
IsitacoincidencethatTrumpsbusinesshasincreasinglyreliedonloansfromRussiansources,and,in2008,
DonaldTrumpJr.toldarealestateconferencethatRussiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecrosssectionofa
lotofourassets?
PutinslonggameistoweakenEuropeanddominatetheregion.Thatswhyhehassupportedandloaned
moneytoright-wingpopulistsaroundEurope:MarineLePeninFrance,SilvioBerlusconiinItaly,andanti-EU
partiesinGreece,HungaryandBulgaria.RussianpropagandaorganscelebratedBritainsexitfromtheEU.
TrumpalsopraisedBrexitandthisweekendignorantlyinsultedtheEuropeanUnion,whoseprecursorwasborn
in1952toensureawar-torncontinentcouldliveinpeace,bysayingitwasfoundedtobeattheU.S.atmaking
money.
Inshort:VladimirPutinsinterestsjusthappentobeDonaldTrumps.Stopandletthatsinkin.
Subject:AnotherHorbulinclassicworthasecondlook/read>VolodymyrHorbulin........FivescenariosforUkraine-
Russiarelations
VolodymyrHorbulinFivescenariosforUkraine-Russiarelations
VolodymyrHorbulin
FivescenariosforUkraine-Russiarelations
IthasbeenmorethanayearaftertheRussianannexationoftheCrimeaandthebeginningofthearmed
aggressioninthesouth-easternregionsofDonbas.
DespitetheattemptsofsomepoliticianstopresenttheeventsinUkraineasanexclusivelyinternalconflict
orcivilwar,itbecomesmoreandmoredifficulttowithholdorrefusetorecognizetheobviousfactof
participationinthisconflictofregularunitsoftheArmedForcesofRussiaorsupportofterroristic
organizationsoperatinginDonbasbyRussia.
Infact,forallthistimepeopleofUkrainehavebeenresistingtheaggressionofoneofthelargest
countriesintheworld,defendingtheirterritory,freedomandindependence.Kremlinsblitzkriegfailed.
TheideathatthewholeUkrainefromtheeastoftheDniprodreamsofrevivingthealliancewiththe
formermetropolis,thatUkrainianindependenceisanartificialphenomenon,thatUkrainianshaveno
patriotismturnedouttobeamyth.InsteadofthevictoriousunificationoftheRussianland,the
Kremlinreceivedhugeeconomiclosses,distrustofthecivilizedworld,acatastrophiclossofthe
internationalprestigeandthegrowthofanti-Russiansentimentsintheworld.
Thecurrentsituationisastalematethereisneitherpeacenorwar.Allpartiessuffersignificantlosses.
Ukraineisplaguedbytheongoingconflictonitsterritory.Russiaisburdenedwiththeparticipationinthe
conflict,themaintenanceofunprofitableannexedCrimea,aswellaswithinternationalsanctions.Finally,
WesterncountriessuffersignificantlyfromtheseveranceofeconomictieswithRussia.
Whatcanbethefurtherdevelopmentoftheevents?Letustrytooutlinepossiblescenarios.Inourview,
therearefivebasicscenarios,threeofthemareradical,andtwoareintermediatecompromise.
Thefirstradicalscenario(scenarioof"totalwar").ItispossibleincaseifRussiangovernmentwillmake
adecisiontolaunchopenmilitaryaggressiontoobtainalandcorridortotheCrimeaandtoreceive
unhinderedaccesstoitsmilitarycontingentinTransnistria.Inthiscase,Ukrainewillbedeprivedofthe
choiceofapossiblesettlementinDonbas,andwillbeforcedtodefenditsindependence,usingall
availableresources.DevelopmentsinsuchascenariowouldmeanfullmilitarizationofUkrainiansociety
economic,political,culturalandideologicalpropagandaandmobilizationimpositionofmartiallaw
maximumself-reliance,
duetotheinevitableinternationalisolation,atleastintheearlystagesofanall-outwaranda
correspondingreductionofflowsofexternalresourcesuncompromisingfocusonthedestructionofthe
enemyattacksagainstcriticalinfrastructureoftheenemyactiveguerrillaandsabotageactivitiesdenial
orminimizationofdiplomaticandforeigneconomiccooperationwiththeenemygovernmentandits
satellitesacompletesubordinationofthearmedforcestodiplomacyandmilitarypropaganda.
Ukrainehasachancetowinthetotalwar,asitisopposedtothecountrywithlimitedtechnologicaland
financialresourceslow"marginofsafety"ofthepoliticalsystempopulationcharacterizedbyinherent
negativedemographicdynamicsandtheinabilitytoresisttheaggressivenationalminoritiesobsolete
army.TheresistanceoftheUkrainianpeopletotheRussianaggression,eventuallywillreturndisposition
oftheworldleadingpowers,aswellasdeepentheinternationalisolationofRussia.Moreover,inthe
conditionsoftotalwarmilitaryactionsoftheRussiasterritorywilldemoralizeanddemotivatethenation.
InthecaseofRussia'sdefeatinthiswar,theissueofDonbasandtheCrimeaownershipwillbewillbe
finallyresolved.Ukrainewillgetridofthe"fifthcolumn"ofopensupportersofthe"Russianworld".It
willgetitsown"heroicepos"asabasisforthepatrioticeducationoffuturegenerations.Mostofthe
issuesintheUkrainian-Russianrelationswillbefinallysettled,andthehistoricalpathsofthetwonations
willpartforever,andthelevelofantagonismwillreachitspeak.
EveninthecaseofseizureoftheUkrainianterritorybytheRussianarmy,thewarwillnotbeoverthe
guerrillamovementandsubversiveactivitiesagainsttheoccupierswillcontinue.Accordingtothis
scenario,therewillcometheinevitableinterventionoftheWestintheconflictinanyform,the
introductionofnewseveresanctionsagainsttheRussianFederation,thetotalpoliticalisolationofthe
Russianleadership,andperhaps,theexclusionoftheRussianFederationfromtheUNSecurityCouncil
andotherinternationalorganizations.Ontheotherhand,thepriceofvictorywillbedestroyed
infrastructureandeconomicpotentialofUkraine,numerousvictimsamongthecivilianandmilitaries.
ItshouldbenotedthatUkraine'stotalwarispurelydefensive.Itdoesnotnecessarilyleadtomass
casualtiesonthecontrary,thereadinessforsuchwarwilldetertheaggressorwithfearofsignificant
lossesandthethreatoftransferofhostilitiestoitsterritory.Themottoofthedefensivewarisunderstood
as"totalmobilizationintosurvive",anditspurposeis"todropthesuperiorforcesoftheaggressorback
onitsownterritorybyinflictinghimmaximumdemotivatinglosses".
Thisscenarioisthemostheroicandsacrificialbutatthesametimetheleastlikelyone.NeitherUkrainian
norRussianpeoplewanttofight.Nobodywantstolosethebenefitsofmodern,peacefullifeforthesake
ofwhimsofahandfulofpoliticaladventurers.
Ingeneral,thescenariooftotalwarisaimedatUkrainesvictoryandpreservationofitsterritorial
integrity.Historyknowsmanyexamplesofsuccessfulviscidsemi-guerrillawarsofsmallandmedium-
sizedstatesagainstlargerandmuchmorepowerfulones.However,thisscenariocanbringnotonly
victorybutalsosignificantlossestothecountry.
Inanycase,suchascenarioisnotthegoalforUkraine.Thegovernmentwillbeforcedtofollowitonly
whenRussiastartsafull-scaleopenattack.
Thesecondradicalscenario("cut-off"or"thewall"scenario)suggestsUkrainesultimateabandonment
oftheoccupiedterritoriesandacompletebreakupwiththem.Thefurtherhistoricalfateofthese
territorieswillbesignificantforUkraineonlyintermsofensuringitsownsecurity,namely,thepowerof
defensivestructuresandasufficientlevelofisolationoftheselands.Foracertainperiod,Ukrainian
statehoodwillneedreformattingandabilitytoadapttothecurrentsituation.However,thisperiodwillbe
relativelypainlessforUkrainebecauseoftheabsenceofregionsdominatedbyrenegadeandconsumer
sentiments,higherdensityandloyaltyoftheUkrainiansociety,favorableconditionsforthecountry's
reformandinternationalassistance.GeorgiaandMoldovastillexistevenafterhavingsufferedsevere
territoriallossesSerbiacontinuesitshistoricpathevenbeingdeprivedofitshistoricalland.
TheimplementationofthisscenariowouldinevitablycausedamagetoUkrainesprestigeinthe
internationalarena.Thisscenarioisalsobeneficialfortherepresentativesofthelocalsemi-criminal
oligarchy,which,inparticular,feedsoncross-bordercrimeandcorruption,aswellasforthepost-Soviet
underclasswhoearntheirlivingbylow-skilledlaborabroad(includingthecountry-aggressor).The
currentscenarioimpliestheuncompromising"amputation"ofanyrelationsandtheerectionofa
"protectivewall"aroundthenew"areasofsocialandpoliticalexclusion."RelationswithRussia,intheir
turn,shouldbereducedtoaminimum,whichsuggestsapossibleextensionofthe"securitywall"across
theRussian-Ukrainianborder.
Thecompliancewiththetotalisolationoftheoccupiedterritorieswillbeextremelydifficulttoensure.In
suchconditions,terroristswillfeelfreefromtheobligationsundertheMinskAgreementandwillcontinue
toattackUkrainian
territories,preventingtheinfrastructureofthenewborderfrombeingarranged.Inaddition,theexistence
of"holes"intheborderwillbeofgreatinterestforvariouscriminalelementswhogainprofitsfrom
smuggling,drugtrafficking,humantrafficking,illegalmigration,etc.
Thepossibilitytoimplementthisscenarioisbasedonthesignificantmentalgapbetweencertain
inhabitantsofthetemporarilyoccupiedDonbasandthemajorityoftheUkrainiansociety.Thelong-
lastinginfluenceofRussianpropagandaonthemindsofthosepeopleformedthemistakenideaofthe
possiblerestorationoftheSovietUnionwithRussia'shelpthosepeoplewereaccustomedtohatred
towardseverythingUkrainianandbroughtuptheyoungergenerationinthesamespirit.Disregardforthis
problemcontributedtothetragicconsequencesoftheannexationoftheCrimeaandtheoccupationofa
partoftheDonbas.NowadaystheUkrainiansocietyfrequentlywonderswhetheritisworthtocontinue
thestrugglefortheterritorydestroyedduringthearmedconflictandtheatrocitiesofRussianinvaders,
takingintoaccountthattheremainingpopulationofthoseterritoriesexpressesnodesiretoreturnunder
Ukrainianjurisdiction.Thisquestionbecomesespeciallyurgentduetothederivedbarriersonthewayto
Europeanintegrationanddelaysinthefurtherdemocraticreforms.Thescenarioofthecomplete
abandonmentoftheseparatistregionsisassociatedwiththelossofapartofthestateterritoryand
prestige.Moreover,itimpliesalongadaptationperiod.
Thethirdradicalscenario("satellite"scenario)suggeststhatUkrainewillsearchforthewaystoconclude
aseparatepeacewithRussiaonfavorableterms,willneglectinterestsofWesternpartners,recognizethe
Donbasautonomy,andrefusetoturnbacktheCrimea.SuchreconciliationwilldepriveUkrainesforeign
policyofindependenceandwilltieitshistoricalfatewiththeRussianFederation.Thepossiblecommon
futureoftwostatesisunlikelytodifferfromwhathadhappenedbeforeinthehistoryofbothnations,but
thewaythelosses,war,andrepressionhappenagain.TheUkrainianstatehasmanyproblemsofitsown
tocomplementtheproblemsoftheRussianstate.Inparticular,theaggravationofdomesticsocial
conflicts,thegrowthofreligiousfundamentalismandregionalseparatism,theeconomiccollapseofthe
resource-rich,buttechnologicallybackwardcountrywillhaveaninevitabledevastatingimpacton
Ukraine.
AsignificantthreattotheUkrainiansocietyisthepossibilityofitsinvolvementinanotherRussian
imperialadventure(fortheprevioustwotheRomanovempireandtheSovietUnionUkrainianshad
alreadypaidmillionsofvictims).Thisadventureinvolvesahopelessandlosingconfrontationwiththe
worldleading
nations(primarilytheUnitedStatesandtheEuro-Atlanticcommunity),andtherefore,newlosses,new
conflicts,andnewhistoricalturningpoints.
ItisclearthatsuchascenariomeetsneitherthenationalinterestsofUkrainenortheaspirationsofthe
Ukrainianpeople,whoclearlystatedtheirEuropeanchoiceattheendof2013,payingahighpriceofthe
lostlivesontheMaidan.
Thisscenarioishistoricallysuicidalandpoliticallymeaningless.RussianEmpirewillneverbeformed
completelyitwillalwaysbe"gettingonitsfeet,"or"gettingupfromitsknees".Theseeffortswillbe
followedbymillionsofvictimsandlossesofhistoricallyunprecedentedamountsofresourcesinwars,
famine,andrepressions.Anattempttoresolvetheconflictinsuchascenariowillcausemassprotestsin
Ukraine,whichwillspilloverintoanewMaidandemandingtheresignationoftheUkrainianleadership.
Thecountrywilleventuallybecomecompletelydestabilized.Thissituationwillcreateidealconditionsfor
Moscow'sinterventionintheinternalaffairsofUkraineandthecontinuationofRussianaggression.
Thefourthscenario("freezing"scenario)liesinthe"freezing"oftheconflictasitwasinTransnistria,
Abkhazia,orSouthOssetia.ThisdecisionisofsignificantinterestforRussia(however,thetotal
surrenderprovidedbythethirdscenariowillsuitittoagreaterextent),aswellasforsomecountriesof
theEUandthemostconformistandpro-RussianlayersoftheEuropeansociety.
Theessenceofthisscenarioliesinthattheconflict-affectedterritoriesofso-calledDNRandLNRwill
remainthepartsofUkraine,perhaps,onconditionofgivingthemspecialpowers.Economictiesbetween
theseterritoriesandtherestofUkraineshouldberestored,whichmeansthatUkrainewillhavetoassume
theeconomicburdenofreconstructionofdestroyedareasofDonbas.Atthesametime,thepuppet
regimecontrolledbyRussiawilldefactooperateinDonbaspursuingtheinterestsofanotherstate.
Russia,thus,willtrytoinfluencetheUkrainianforeignanddomesticpolicy.
ItisobviousthatthisscenariosuggeststhatUkrainewillsignificantlyslowdownonitswaytoEurope,
and"affected"dependentregionswillbecomeanewsourceofpoliticalinstabilityandeconomicburden
forUkraine.Atthesametime,oneshouldnotexpectaquietlife,becausetheconflictwillfurthersmolder
destabilizingthesituationbythethreattoreturntotheactivephase.
Atthesametime,thecessationofactivehostilitiesinDonbasand"reconciliation"impliedbythis
scenariowillgiveEuropeancountriesanexcuseforliftingthesanctionsagainsttheRussianFederation
anditspoliticalleaders,whichwillleadto
therestorationofeconomictiesandboosteconomicgrowthinRussia.However,theEuropeanleaders
willbeabletoturntheirattentiontothesolutionofproblemswithintheEUthatwillcontributetothe
growthoftheirpoliticalratings,asopposedtostrengtheningthe"fatigue"fromthecontinuationofthe
Russian-Ukrainianconflict.
DespitethefactthatthisscenariosuggestsaratherrapidcessationofactivehostilitiesinDonbas,Ukraine
willremainanunattractivestateofpermanentcrisiswithasignificantnumberofrepresentativesofvarious
internationalorganizations,humanitarianaidtrafficking,theenormousturnoverofsmugglingofillegal
weapons,drugsandthousandsof"bluehelmets"placedatthedemarcationline.Theperiodofthe
"frozen"formoftheconflictisunknown,aswellasitsresults.Historicalexperienceshowsthatwecan
talkaboutdecades,andasaresult,Ukrainewillreturntowhereitbegan,startinganewroundof
antagonism.
Ingeneral,theimplementationofthisscenariowillsatisfytheinterestsofbothRussiaandtheEU,butnot
ofUkraine,especiallyinthelongtermperspective.
Thefifthscenario("neitherwarnorpeace"or"limitedwarandpermanentnegotiation"scenario)provides
alimiteddeterrentwarintheEastagainstRussiaandthecollaboratorswiththeaimtoinflictthem
maximumdemotivatinglossespermanentnegotiatingprocess,butwithoutthefinalresultsreflectedina
varietyofarrangementsandformatsbuild-upofthemilitarypotentialofUkraine(primarilyofthe
military-technological)andthegradualtransitionfromblockingoftheopponenttohisdisplace,the
transitionfrompassivetoactivedefensetheincreaseoftheinternationalsanctionsanddiplomatic
isolationofRussiaconsistentandradicalreformationoftheUkrainiansocietyrapprochementwith
NATOandtheEuropeanUnionandtheformationofanumberofdefenseallianceswiththepost-Soviet
andCentralEuropeancountries.
Therealizationofthisscenariowillrequirepoliticalskillsandmentalendurance,aswellasthepresenceof
therapidreactionforcesandspecialoperationsforces,flexibleandcreativediplomacy,delicateand
"acrimonious"propaganda.
Despiterequiringmuchtime,skillsandpatienceforitsimplementation,thisscenariomakesitpossibleto
achievemaximumresultswithminimumlossesoflife.
Asitcanbeseen,noneofthescenariosshouldbeexcluded.Theyallcontaingreaterorlesserriskstothe
UkrainianpeopleandtheUkrainianstate.Thereareneitheridealoptionsnorsimplesolutions.An
importanttaskistofindtheoptimalbalanceofinterestsofallthepartiestotheconflict.
Althoughthescenariooftheconflicts"freezing"isundesirableandhistoricallyunpromisingforUkraine,
itispossiblethatundertheinfluenceofinternalandexternalcircumstancesUkrainewillhavetoagreeto
thisscenario.Inthiscase,thebalanceofinterestsshouldlieinthefactthatUkraineagreestotakecertain
risksonlyprovidedthatanumberofrequirementsaretakenintoaccountasriskabsorbers.
Firstly,theterritoriescapturedbypro-RussiancollaboratorsandRussianinvadersaretemporarily
withdrawnfromtheUkrainianjurisdictionandareputundertheinternationaljurisdiction.Ukrainestopsto
fulfillanyobligationstothosewhodecidedtostayonitsterritories,andthegeneraladministrationof
theseterritoriesisexercisedbythebodycomposedofrepresentativesofinternationalorganizationsand
thestatesconcerned.Anyeconomiccontactswiththeoccupiedterritoriesareceased,includingthe
supplyoffood,energyandetc.HumanitarianaidisprovidedonlyundertheauspicesoftheUNandthe
RedCross.
Secondly,Ukrainereservestheexclusiverighttodecideontherestorationofitsterritorialintegrityandto
carryoutthisrestorationinthemostappropriatetimeandthemostappropriateway.
Thirdly,thestatusoftheterritoriesoccupiedbyRussiaandcapturedbyterroristscanonlybetemporary
andshouldnotbereflectedintheConstitution.TheissueofconflictresolutioninDonbashasnothingto
dowiththequestionofthestatesystemofUkraineatleastbecausethefirstiscausedbytheexternal
aggression,andthesecondisapurelydomesticmatter.
Fourthly,ifthelocalDonbascollaborators,membersofbanditgroupsandotherpartnersoftheRussian
aggressionwerenotinvolvedinviolentcrimes(primarilyagainsthumanity),theyshouldbesubjectsto
amnesty.Amnestiedpersonsaredeprivedoftherighttoholdadministrativepositionsatalllevelsinthe
temporarilyoccupiedterritoriesofDonbasandthewholeUkraine.
Fifthly,thedemarcationlineisestablishedonaproportionalbasis,andeachofthewarringpartiesretains
controloverthemainpopulationcentersintheneutralline.DonetskandLuganskaredeclaredopenand
demilitarizedcitiesundertheinternationalcontrol.Themajorbordercrossingpointsonthepartofthe
Ukrainian-Russianborder,whicharetemporarilycontrolledbytheRussiaanditscollaborators,should
receivethesamestatus.
Sixthly,themilitarycontingent,whichwilldividethewarringparties,mustbecomposedprimarilyofthe
representativesofthearmedforcesofthosecountrieswhoseleaderswilldecidetocreateanew
TransnistriaandbuypeaceinEuropeat
thecostofUkrainianterritory.Moreover,Ukrainemustdemandthecreationofatleastthree,andnotone
(liketoday),militaryteamstogetherwiththecountriesofNATOthoseteamsshouldbelocatedaround
theareaofthefrozenconflictinthecitiesofKharkov,Dnipropetrovsk,Zaporizhzhia,Odessa,and
Mykolaiv.
Ukrainianterritoryshouldbecometheplaceofpermanentandcontinuousjointmilitarytraining,especially
withthoseNATOmember-countries,whichcanteachtheofficersandsoldiersofourarmy.
Seventhly,theUkrainiansidecontinuestodevelopandmodernizeitsarmedforcesandreservestheright
tousethemtosaveandrestoreitssovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.Ukrainewillframeitsmilitary
doctrineandmilitarypolicyinaccordancewiththenationalinterestsandprotectitscitizensonthewhole
territory,includingthetemporarilyoccupiedone.
Eighthly,Ukrainereceiveseconomiccompensationforitswillingnesstopreventalargemainland,and
perhapsevenaworldwaratthecostoftemporarylossofthepartofitsownterritory.Wearetalking
abouttheexpandedlendingtothenationaleconomy,promotionofinvestmentintheUkrainianagro-
industrialandmilitary-industrialcomplexes,inclusioninthepan-Europeanprogramofscientific,
technologicalandregionaldevelopment,providingadditionaltradingopportunitiesandassistanceintheir
implementation,assistanceinthefieldofenergysecurity.
Ninthly,theUkrainianstatereceivespoliticalcompensation,whichwillensurethestateindependenceand
definetheprospectsofUkrainesmembershipinNATOandtheEuropeanUnion.
ThoserequirementsoftheUkrainiansidemaybecomethebasisforfurtherlengthynegotiations,whichin
practicewouldmeannowar,nopeacestatewheretofightiswhichthefightisimpracticalandtoput
upisinappropriate.
Whilesolvingtheproblemsofthesouth-easternpartsofUkrainianDonbasandtheCrimea,oneshould
takeintoaccounttheinternationalcontextasmuchaspossible.Bothissuesareunlikelytobefinally
resolvedwithoutthecomprehensivetransformationofthepost-Sovietspaceandtheresolutionofthe
territorialconflictinKarabakh,Transnistria,Abkhazia,andSouthOssetia.Thereturnofthoseregionsto
thenationalstatesmaybeprecededbytheirtemporarytransferunderinternationaladministration.Butfor
thetimebeingUkraineshouldstarttopromotebydiplomaticandpropagandameanstheideaof
holdinganinternationalconferenceonpeaceandarrangingofthepost-Sovietspace.Itisrelevantinthis
contexttobringtogethertheeffortsofUkraine,Georgia,Moldova
andAzerbaijanwithinGUAMasarenewedregionalorganizationwithasignificantpotential.
TheissueoftheCrimeaoritsreturntoUkrainewillremainopenforalongtime.Itisclearthatthe
annexationofthepeninsulawillnotberecognizedbytheworldcommunity,anditwillcontinueits
isolatedexistenceasthepartoftheRussianFederation,whichhasnochancetolegitimizethisnew
territorialacquisitionattheinternationallevel.Ithastopaythepeopleforloyalty,tosuppressandatthe
sametimetrytobribeCrimeanTatars,toinvestininfrastructureprojectsand,moreimportantly,tospend
hugeamountsofmoneyonthemaintenanceoftheenormousmilitarybaseandthesignificantcontingent
oftroopswhichshouldprotectthisperipheralbranchofthelandintheclosedseaofallegedabuseof
NATOandUkrainesrightlyaspirations.
Ukrainewillnotreturnthislostregioninthenearestfuture.Itmaybepossibleonlyincasesome
unexpectedwonderoccurs,likeaninstantcollapseoftheRussianFederationortheUkrainianeconomic
miracle.ItisclearthatthedifficultpathofthereturnoftheCrimeaisahead,andnotallUkrainiansare
readytoovercomeitbecausemanyofthemfeelamoralaversiontothemajorityofthepopulationofthe
peninsulaanddonotconsiderthepeninsulaalandworthspillingbloodandenduringhardships.Thatis
whyiswillbenecessarytoconvincenotonlytheCrimeanpeoplebutalsoUkrainians.Thereturnofthe
Crimearemainsratherastatethannationalmatter.InUkraine,fewpeoplebelievethatitisnecessaryto
implementeconomicreformssolelyinordertobecomerich,topleasetheinhabitantsofthelost
peninsulaandtopersuadethemtoreturn.Ukrainiansfeelmoralobligationsandresponsibilitymainlyin
relationtotheCrimeanTatars,whosufferedthemost.Theyremaintheonlyindigenousnationofthe
Crimea,whichhadtherighttoself-determinationinaccordancewiththeinternationallaw,butwasnot
goingtouseit,beingapartofUkraine.NowtheindigenouspeopleoftheCrimeafacethethreatofanew
deportationcomingfromthecurrentillegalgovernmentoftheCrimea.
TheissueoftheCrimeahasthreeimportantvalueandnormativeaspects.Firstly,theannexationofthe
peninsulacauseddamagenotonlytotheresourcebaseandpower-forcepotentialofUkrainebutalsoto
itspublicprestigeandthemoralconditionofcitizens.Secondly,theannexationsignificantlyundermined
theworldorderduetotherejectionoftheprincipleofthebordersinviolability(theonethatprevailedin
internationalrelationsaftertheSecondWorldWar)aswellasduetobrazenimpudentviolationofthe
sovereigntyandterritorialintegrityofamemberoftheworldcommunity.Therefore,theproblemofthe
Crimearegardtothelatter,
evenmorethantoUkraineitself.Thirdly,theannexationhasshownasurprisingunityoftheRussian
society,bymakingthissocietycollectivelyresponsibleforthecrime.Evenasignificantpartoftheso-
calledoppositionwelcomedtheseizure,mitigatingitsimmoralandillegalpositionbytherequirementof
anotherreferendumonjoiningtheCrimeatoRussia.
DifficultiesofthereturnofthelostterritoriesshouldnotdemoralizetheUkrainianstateandpeople,
generatedespairanddistractfromtheconstantandlaboriouswork(diplomatic,military,and
propagandistic)forthereturn.Eventoday,itisclearthatthisprocesswilllastforlong.However,itis
immoralandshort-sightedtofreezetherestorationoftheterritorialintegrityandtoputthis
responsibilityontheshouldersoffuturegenerations.Inparticular,theattemptstounderstandtheproblem
intermsofbipolarityconsideringtheUkraine'sseparationlinefromthelostterritories,somethinglikea
newBerlinWall,causecertainobjections.Todaywecanhearthecallstowaitforthetimewhenthe
changeintheglobalandregionaldistributionofforcesoccurs,andwhenUkrainereachesamuchhigher
levelofdevelopment.Thus,thereoccursatransfertoaratherpeculiarsituationoftheUkrainianscenario
ofthereunificationofGermanyaftertheendofColdWar,whichwassymbolizedbythefallofthe
BerlinWall.
Thedescribedexpectantapproach,basedontheexcessivehistoricaloptimismandsuperficialhistorical
analogies,raisesanumberofobjections.Firstly,itwillbemorethanadozenyearsbeforethe
reunificationbytheGermanscenariohappens.Andwhenithappens,billionsofdollarswillhavetobe
spentontheprocessofassociation-reintegration(theexampleoftheEastandtheWestGermanyis
suitablehere).Secondly,thereisnoconfrontationbetweenthetwoglobalvalue-systemalternativesonthe
occupiedsouth-easternregionsofDonbasandtheCrimea.Thirdly,somesocioculturaldifferencesof
DonbasandCrimeafromtherestofUkrainearealreadyapparentandwillonlyaggravateduringthe
separateexistencethiswillcertainlycomplicatethefurtherreintegration.Fourthly,thehistoryofthe
previouserahasnotonlypositiveexamplessuchasGermany.Forinstance,nobodyknowswhenthe
unificationofKoreawilltakeplace.Vietnamhasrestoreditsterritorialintegritywiththehelpofmilitary
forcesandtotalitariancommunism,andnotapplyingtheliberal-democraticprinciples(theNorthVietnam
engulfedtheSouth).
Alongwiththat,historicalexperienceshowsthattheartificialstatetransformationsandforced
acquisitionsoftheterritoriesofotherstates,asarule,donottakeroot.Forexample,Lithuania,Latvia
andEstoniaaftertheforcedinclusionintheUSSR
andstayingitspartfor50yearsreturnedtotheirhistoricalpathofEuropeandevelopment,choosing
independenceandfurtherjoiningtheEuropeanUnion.
InthecaseoftheCrimea,thestruggleforthisterritorybetweenUkraineandRussiawilltakeplaceinthe
political,diplomatic,socio-culturaldimensions.However,thefinalchoiceshouldbemadebythepeople
oftheCrimea,andnotunderthemuzzlesofRussianguns,asitwasin2014,butinacivilizeddemocratic
wayandcompliancewiththeinternationallaw.Thereexistasufficientamountofrolemodelsinthisfield.
BeforethenextreferendumintheCrimea,theorganizersshouldcarefullystudytheexperienceofthe
peacefulseparationoftheCzechRepublicandSlovakia,orcarryingoutthereferendumonScottish
independencein2014.Theseprocesseshavenotcausedanydoubtsaboutthelegitimacyofthe
respectiveactionsandtheirlegalconsequences,asopposedtothefarcethattookplaceinCrimeain
2014.
ThearmedconflictinDonbaswilleventuallycometoanend.ItisclearthattheUkrainianpeopleare
interestedinthistohappenasquicklyaspossibleandwiththeleastlosses.Ukrainianscouldnottakefull
advantageofthepeacefulandcalmconditionsofthepreviousphaseofnation-building.Itisobviousthat
thecurrenteraofthestruggleforthestatereestablishmentandthetrueindependencewillbeaperiodof
hardeningandstrengthening,maturingandhealingofthesociety,whichwillfinallyovercomethepolitical
infantilismandall-encompassingcorruption.Negativeexperienceteachesquicklyandconvincingly.
TodaytheUkrainiangovernmentdefendsUkrainianfreedomandindependencewithweaponsinits
hands.Althoughthemilitary-politicalsituationremainsdifficult,Ukrainecontinuestostrengthenits
defensecapabilityandnationalsecurity,carriesoutdifficultandpainfulreforms,andmakesthestate
strongerinthefaceofcurrentandfuturethreats.
Warsusuallyplaytheroleofdividing(threshold)events,separatingthepastfromthefuture,oneerafrom
another.LetushopethatthecurrentRussian-Ukrainianarmedconflictwillfinallyseparatetheformer
post-Sovietcorrupt,cravenanddependentUkrainefromthefutureEuropeanUkraine,thebrave,strong
anddynamicone.
http://en.niss.gov.ua/public/File/englishpublic/Five_scenarios_for_the_Ukrainian-Russian_relations.pdf
Senttime: 07/27/201609:01:43AM
Subject: FW:"AfterDNCleaks,OBAMAhintsatpossibleMOTIVEforRussiatohelpTrump,"washingtonpost.com,7/27
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,July27,20169:01AM
Subject:"AfterDNCleaks,OBAMAhintsatpossibleMOTIVEforRussiatohelpTrump,"washingtonpost.com,7/27
PresidentObamaonTuesdaywadedintothecontroversyovertheleakofDNCemails,sayingthe
hackofpartyrecordswascharacteristicofRussiangovernmentbehaviorWhatwedoknowisthat
theRussianshackoursystems,notjustgovernmentsystemsbutprivatesystems.Whatthemotives
wereintermsoftheleaks,allthatIcantsaydirectly.WhatIdoknowisthatDonaldTRUMPhas
repeatedlyexpressedadmirationforPutin.
And:OfficialeditorialoftheNewYorkTimes:ThePUTINTRUMPadmirationsociety,nytimes.com,
7/27
WouldMr.PutinreallyinterfereintheAmericanpresidentialracetohelpMr.Trump,theRepublican
Partynominee,getelectedovertheDemocraticnominee,HillaryClinton?...itisbeingconsidereda
seriouspossibilityaftertheirreleaseonFridayofnearly20,000emailsstolenfromtheDNCcomputer
servers,manyofthemembarrassingtoDemocraticleadersTheDemocratsexpectmoreleaks.Itmay
taketimetoprovewhowasbehindthecyberattacks,butAmericanintelligenceagencieshave
reportedlytoldtheWhiteHousethattheyhavehighconfidenceitwasRussia.Severalcybersecurity
firmsthatexaminedthemetadatasaiditlookedliketheworkoftwoRussianintelligenceagencies
TheFBIisinvestigating.Mr.TrumphasdismissedtheideaofaRussianinterventiononhisbehalfasa
joke.ButhispastwordsaboutMr.PutinhavecausedsometosuspectthatMoscowwouldseekto
giveMr.trumpanedgeintheelection.
And:RussianSTATESPONSOREDACTORSwentafteraDNCstafferinvestigatingPaulMANAFORTs
[Trumpscampaignmanager]activitiesinUkraine:SeeMichaelISIKOFF,Exclusive:SuspectedRussian
hackofDNCWIDENSincludespersonalemailofstafferresearchingManafort,yahoo.com/news,
7/25
JustweeksaftershestartedpreparingoppositionresearchfilesonDonaldTrumpscampaign
chairmanpaulManafortlastspring,DNCconsultantAlexandraChalupagotanalarmingmessage
whensheloggedontoherpersonalYahooaccount.Importantactionrequired,apopupfroma
YahoosecurityteamthatisinformallyknownastheParanoids.Westronglysuspectthatyour
accounthasbeenthetargetofstatesponsoredactors.Chalupawhohadbeendraftingmemosand
writingmemosaboutManafortsconnectionstoPRORUSSIANLEADERSinUkrainequicklyalerted
topDNCofficials.Chalupasmessagestandsout:itisthefirstindicationthatthereachofthe
hackerswhopenetratedtheDNChasextendedBEYONDtheofficialemailaccountsofcommittee
officialsAfterChalupasenttheemailto[hersupervisor]ittriggeredhighlevelconcernswithinthe
DNC,giventhesensitivenatureofherwork.ThatswhenweknewitwastheRUSSIANS,saida
DemocraticPartysourceWetoldhertostopherresearch.Thelasttimesomebodybrokeintothe
DNC[Watergate],itledtotheresignationofapresident,saidtheDemocraticPartysecuritysource.
And:DanaMILBANK,ATrumpstylespeculationontheGOPandPUTIN,washingtonpost.com,7/27
oped
And:LililiaSHEVTSOVAdiscussestheRussiantraceintheDNCscandal:
http://blog.newsru.com/article/27july2016/sled
And:SodoesnotedcolumnistVitaliiPORTNIKOV,Manafort,YanukovychandTrump:
http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/2789944.html
And:AndreiPIONTKOVSIIonthestruggleforpoweratthetopinRussia:Evangelieotpalachei,
http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27875205.html
And:TheeditorialboardofSlon.rudescribestheassaultoftheFSBonnumerousRussianstate
entitiesandtheirleaders:http://slong.ru/posts/71363
And:RussiansprotestREPRESSIVEnewantiterrorlaws,themoscowtimes.com,7/27
ProtestsagainstrepressivenewantiterrorlegislationhavetakenplaceinmajorcitiesacrossRussia.
Senttime: 07/27/201609:36:43AM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUISINVOLVEDINUS
Subject: ELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWith
Sent:Tuesday,July26,20168:54PM
Subject:Fwd:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUISINVOLVEDINUS
ELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWith
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN][ONTHE1stBATCH,PLEASEREMEMBER:LAVROV,WHENASKEDWHETHERRUIS
INVOLVEDINUSELECTIONS,ANSWERED:"DON'TMAKEMEUSEFOURLETTERWORDS"!!][MK&ANT/F]
RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMinds+.[CL/K]Fwd:WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?[HU]
TrumpWouldMakeRussiaGreatAgain|NYDailyNews..[ADDFROMWD]AHORBULINCLASSIC:FIVE
SCENARIOSFORRU-UARELATIONS...
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Subject:RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack-TheDailyBeast
RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack-TheDailyBeast
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/26/putin-s-wicked-leaks-didn-t-start-with-the-dnc.html?
via=mobile&source=twitter
Subject:RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMinds/+
To:

RussiasLongHistoryofMessingWithAmericansMindsBeforetheDNCHack
Russiasintelligenceserviceshavealonghistoryofminglingsinisterfictionwithshardsoffactandleakingthrough
thirdpartiestocovertheirtracks.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/07/26/putin-s-wicked-leaks-didn-t-start-with-the-dnc.html
AnneApplebaum
this@FTarticlealsonotesrecentCzech,GermanhackingscandalsmaybelinkedtoRussia
Democratshacked:RussiatrailseesMoscowaccusedofwideraims
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6e0b9a84-5278-11e6-befd-2fc0c26b3c60.html#axzz4FSQFQVYI
...
...EversinceRussianhackersattemptedinMay2014tocorrupttheresultsoftheUkrainianpresidentialelection,
therehasbeengrowingconcernamongwesternintelligenceagenciesovertheKremlinsapparentglovesoff
approachwhenitcomestopoliticalsubversion.
ThosefearswerecompoundedjustonemonthlaterinJunethatyear,whentapesofsensitiveandexpletiveladen
conversationsbetweenseniorPolishpoliticianswereleaked,sinkingthehopesofRadoslawSikorski,thehawkish
formerforeignminister,foraseniorEUrole.
InJanuarythisyear,accordingtotheintelligenceofficial,emailshackedfromtheprimeministeroftheCzech
RepublicwerereleasedtopublicembarrassmentinanoperationthathadthefingerprintsofRussianagents.
AndinMay,theheadofGermanysdomesticintelligenceagency,theBfV,saidAPT28wasresponsiblefora
massiveattackontheGermanparliamentaswellasasustainedespionageoperationagainsttheCDUtheruling
partyofAngelaMerkel.
ThereallybigdeparturehereisthatthisisaverydirectinvolvementinUSdomesticpoliticsofakindthateven
undertheKGBwasonlyevercontemplatedonthemargins,saysJonathanEyal,internationaldirectoratthethink-
tankRusi.
Thereisnoway,saysMrEyal,thatsuchoperationswouldnotbeco-ordinatedandassessedwithinRussiafroma
centralauthorityattheveryhighestlevel.
Butwhatthisreallypointsto,MrEyalnotes,isthatthereisafeelinginMoscowthattheyarewinninginthis
confrontationwiththewest.Andtheyseenoreasonwhytheyshouldletup.
Exclusive:SuspectedRussianhackofDNCwidensincludespersonalemailofstaffer
researchingManafort
http://www.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-hacked-emails-of-dnc-oppo-researcher-point-to-russians-and-wider-penetration-
154121061.html?soc_src=mail&soc_trk=ma
POLITICO
PriebusonDNCleak:'TheRussiansdidn'twritetheemails'http://politi.co/2akQu6H|
Subject:WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?
To:"Zaryckyj,Walter"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
WhatDoesPutinHaveonHillary?
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/what-does-putin-have-on-hillary/
AndrewRosenthalofTheNewYorkTimesexaminesthequestionofwhohackedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeand
whetherthetrailleadstoRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.WeknowfromreliablereportingthatRussianhackersarenot
independentactors,andthattheyhavebeenbusy,hewrites.Anditseerie,atbest,thatJulianAssangesWikiLeakschosethis
momenttoreleasethestolenemails(andcompleteastrangetrianglethatrunsfromhimtoPutintoEdwardSnowden).
Forhispart,onhisTwitterpage,Snowdensaid,IfRussiahackedthe#DNC,theyshouldbecondemnedforit.Butduringthe
#Sonyhack,theFBIpresentedevidence.
ThisisfunnyonSnowdenspart.SnowdensitsinRussia,aguestofPutin,andAssangehasactedlikeanagentofRussia.Trevor
LoudonsreportonAssangedocumentshisservicetoMoscowandassociationswithanumberofMarxistorpro-Russiangroups.
Snowdenisprobablypersonallyinvolvedintheleakandcouldeasilygettothebottomofwhyithappened.
ThishastheappearanceofaforeignpowerdirectlyinterferinginanAmericanelection,andthatsnotsomethingtotakelightly,
NoahRothmanwritesinCommentary.Hegoeson,Ratherthanapplaudandleveragethisdevelopment,ashehas,DonaldTrump
wouldbemuchbetterservedbycondemningit.IftheRussiansaresetonunderminingtheDemocraticPartyinthiselection,it
wontbelongbeforethepublicisaskedtoconsiderwhythatmightbe.
Rothmanhasapoint,butthemoreimportantissueiswhytheDNCandthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonusedprivateor
unsecureserversthatwereopentotheseforeignadversaries.OnecanarguethatMrs.Clinton,inparticular,invitedthisforeign
meddlingintheelection.WhoknowswhattheRussiansstillhaveintheirbagoftricks?ThepointisthatMrs.Clintonisasecurity
riskandtheRussiansmaystillhaveemailstouseagainsther.
Pro-PutincommentatorDonHankreportedbackinJune,Iwasinvitedtoparticipateinaconversationamongagroupoffriends
whoarehopingthattheKremlinwillturnovertheircacheofHillaryemailsobtainedviatheRomanianhackerGucciferjustin
timetosmearherpriortotheNovemberelection.
Evenearlier,CatherineHerridgeofFoxNewsreportedbackinMaythattheRomanianhackerknownasGucciferhadclaimed
heeasilyandrepeatedlybreachedformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonspersonalemailserverinearly2013.TheClinton
campaigndeniedthecharge,butHerridgereportedthatGuccifersaidhefirstcompromisedClintonconfidantSidney
Blumenthal'sAOLaccount,inMarch2013,andusedthatasasteppingstonetotheClintonserver.
Gucciferhasbeenindictedbyafederalgrandjuryonchargesofwirefraud,unauthorizedaccesstoaprotectedcomputer,
aggravatedidentitytheft,cyberstalkingandobstructionofjustice.
Mrs.ClintonsemailsmaybeevenmorevaluablethanthedocumentsstolenandreleasedbySnowden.Afterall,Clintonsemails
discussedtheintentionsofU.S.policymakers.
ThisisactuallyanoldstoryinvolvingtheClintons.AsReedIrvineandIreportedbackin1998,theKenStarrreportonPresident
ClintonrevealedthatClintonhadwarnedhissexualplaythingMonicaLewinsky,aWhiteHouseintern,thataforeigngovernment
maybemonitoringtheirtelephoneconversationsandthattheyshouldconcoctacoverstorytoexplainthem.Hereisexactlywhat
theStarrreportsaysaboutthismatter:AccordingtoMs.Lewinsky,sheandthePresidenthadalengthyconversationthatday.He
toldherthathesuspectedthataforeignembassy(hedidnotspecifywhichone)wastappinghistelephones,andheproposed
coverstories.Ifeverquestioned,sheshouldsaythatthetwoofthemwerejustfriends.Ifanyoneeveraskedabouttheirphone
sex,sheshouldsaythattheyknewtheircallswerebeingmonitoredallalong,andthephonesexwasjustaput-on.
Nothinghasreallychanged,exceptthatemailshavenowbeenmonitoredandcompromisedinMrs.Clintonscase.
AswesaidbackinMay,Theevidencedemonstratesthatsheisafull-blownsecurityriskwhoshouldbeindictedforherreckless
criminalconductasSecretaryofState.Hillarymadeherselfintoasecurityrisk.
Nowwearewaitingforthenextshoetodrop.DoesithavesomethingtodowithBillClinton,theClintonFoundation,orHillarys
ownpersonalscandals?
Whateverthescandal,itsnotthefaultofDonaldJ.Trump.Trumpmayhavesomethingtoexplainregardinghisowntiestothe
Kremlin,butsodoesHillary.IfthetruthdoesntcomeoutbeforeElectionDay,itmeansthatMoscowmayhaveblackmailpower
overthepossiblefirstfemalepresidentoftheUnitedStates.
From:hunter@
Subject:TrumpwouldmakeRussiagreatagain--NYDailyNewsEditorial
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/trumprussiagreatarticle1.2725698
MakeRussiagreatagain:WhetherornotRussianshackedtheDNCtoaidDonaldTrump,
theRepublicannomineeisdangerouslyfondofVladimirPutin
EDITORIALS
NEWYORKDAILYNEWS
Tuesday,July26,2016,4:10AM
Deeplydisturbingbutasyetunconfirmed:ThatRussianhackersmayhavebrokenintoDemocraticNational
CommitteecomputersfortheexpresspurposeofboostingthecampaignofDonaldTrump.
Knownbeyondanyreasonabledoubt:Trumpandhisteamhaveaperverseadmirationforandaseriesofstrange
relationshipswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandapro-Russianworld-viewthatrunsagainstthebest
interestsofAmericaintheworld.
TheWikiLeaks-facilitatedbreachoftheDNC,whichproducedmountainsofembarrassingrevelationsforthe
committeeandforcedtheresignationofChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultzloomslargeas
DemocratsgatherinPhiladelphiathisweek.
TheFBIsuspectsRussianintelligenceagencieswerebehindthemischief.Theymighthavebeenfreelancingthey
mighthavebeendoingtheRussianstrongmansbiddingtohelpelectTrump.
RichardA.Clarke:WhyPutinandISISwantTrumptowin
TheprospectofaforeignpowerwithinterestsoftendiametricallyopposedtooursmeddlinginanAmerican
presidentialelectioninthismannershouldmakevotersshudder.
Buthackornohack,TrumpsromanticviewofPutin,amanwhowantsnothingmorethantoexpandhissphereof
influenceandseeU.S.powerwane,iswell-established.Trump,whohasafetishforstrongmenofallstripes,has
repeatedlyheapedpraiseontherepressive,anti-democratic,expansionistPutinafriendtoregimesinIranand
Syriacallinghimamanhighlyrespectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.
WhenchallengedonthefactthatPutinkillsjournalists,politicalopponents,andinvadescountries,Trumpreplied,
Atleasthesaleader.
LastSeptember,whenFoxNewsBillOReillyaskedTrumpaboutPutinsmilitaryadventureinSyria
involvementadvertisedasanti-ISISthatwasinfactintendedtokillrebelschallengingRussianclientBasharAssad
TrumpsaidofPutin,whohadpraisedhim,Intermsofleadership,hesgettinganA.
Debbie,DonnaandtheDNC
Basedonthismutualadmirationsociety,itshouldcomeasnosurprisethatTrumphasexpressedwillingnessto
leaveNATOalliestwistinginthewind.AsNATOisthesinglegreatestcheckonRussianaggression,thatisagift
toPutin.
OrthatTrumpistasnixedaRepublicanplatformamendmentsettoincludestrongsupportforsendingAmerican
weaponstoUkrainetocounterRussianaggression.TopTrumpadviserPaulManafortwhoforthebetterpartof
adecadeworkedasatopaidetoformerUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovych,aPutinstoogesawtoit.
TherearefartoomanydotsconnectingTrumpandRussiatoavoidsteppingbackandseeingthewholescary
picture.
IsitacoincidencethatRussianstate-controlledmediaarecheeringonTrumpateveryturn?
IsitacoincidencethattopTrumpforeignpolicyadviserMichaelFlynn,aformergeneralvettedforaspotonhis
ticket,satnearPutinatacelebrationfortheRussianpropagandaoutletRT?
IsitacoincidencethatTrumpsbusinesshasincreasinglyreliedonloansfromRussiansources,and,in2008,
DonaldTrumpJr.toldarealestateconferencethatRussiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecrosssectionofa
lotofourassets?
PutinslonggameistoweakenEuropeanddominatetheregion.Thatswhyhehassupportedandloaned
moneytoright-wingpopulistsaroundEurope:MarineLePeninFrance,SilvioBerlusconiinItaly,andanti-EU
partiesinGreece,HungaryandBulgaria.RussianpropagandaorganscelebratedBritainsexitfromtheEU.
TrumpalsopraisedBrexitandthisweekendignorantlyinsultedtheEuropeanUnion,whoseprecursorwasborn
in1952toensureawar-torncontinentcouldliveinpeace,bysayingitwasfoundedtobeattheU.S.atmaking
money.
Inshort:VladimirPutinsinterestsjusthappentobeDonaldTrumps.Stopandletthatsinkin.
Subject:AnotherHorbulinclassicworthasecondlook/read>VolodymyrHorbulin........FivescenariosforUkraine-
Russiarelations
VolodymyrHorbulinFivescenariosforUkraine-Russiarelations
VolodymyrHorbulin
FivescenariosforUkraine-Russiarelations
IthasbeenmorethanayearaftertheRussianannexationoftheCrimeaandthebeginningofthearmed
aggressioninthesouth-easternregionsofDonbas.
DespitetheattemptsofsomepoliticianstopresenttheeventsinUkraineasanexclusivelyinternalconflict
orcivilwar,itbecomesmoreandmoredifficulttowithholdorrefusetorecognizetheobviousfactof
participationinthisconflictofregularunitsoftheArmedForcesofRussiaorsupportofterroristic
organizationsoperatinginDonbasbyRussia.
Infact,forallthistimepeopleofUkrainehavebeenresistingtheaggressionofoneofthelargest
countriesintheworld,defendingtheirterritory,freedomandindependence.Kremlinsblitzkriegfailed.
TheideathatthewholeUkrainefromtheeastoftheDniprodreamsofrevivingthealliancewiththe
formermetropolis,thatUkrainianindependenceisanartificialphenomenon,thatUkrainianshaveno
patriotismturnedouttobeamyth.InsteadofthevictoriousunificationoftheRussianland,the
Kremlinreceivedhugeeconomiclosses,distrustofthecivilizedworld,acatastrophiclossofthe
internationalprestigeandthegrowthofanti-Russiansentimentsintheworld.
Thecurrentsituationisastalematethereisneitherpeacenorwar.Allpartiessuffersignificantlosses.
Ukraineisplaguedbytheongoingconflictonitsterritory.Russiaisburdenedwiththeparticipationinthe
conflict,themaintenanceofunprofitableannexedCrimea,aswellaswithinternationalsanctions.Finally,
WesterncountriessuffersignificantlyfromtheseveranceofeconomictieswithRussia.
Whatcanbethefurtherdevelopmentoftheevents?Letustrytooutlinepossiblescenarios.Inourview,
therearefivebasicscenarios,threeofthemareradical,andtwoareintermediatecompromise.
Thefirstradicalscenario(scenarioof"totalwar").ItispossibleincaseifRussiangovernmentwillmake
adecisiontolaunchopenmilitaryaggressiontoobtainalandcorridortotheCrimeaandtoreceive
unhinderedaccesstoitsmilitarycontingentinTransnistria.Inthiscase,Ukrainewillbedeprivedofthe
choiceofapossiblesettlementinDonbas,andwillbeforcedtodefenditsindependence,usingall
availableresources.DevelopmentsinsuchascenariowouldmeanfullmilitarizationofUkrainiansociety
economic,political,culturalandideologicalpropagandaandmobilizationimpositionofmartiallaw
maximumself-reliance,
duetotheinevitableinternationalisolation,atleastintheearlystagesofanall-outwaranda
correspondingreductionofflowsofexternalresourcesuncompromisingfocusonthedestructionofthe
enemyattacksagainstcriticalinfrastructureoftheenemyactiveguerrillaandsabotageactivitiesdenial
orminimizationofdiplomaticandforeigneconomiccooperationwiththeenemygovernmentandits
satellitesacompletesubordinationofthearmedforcestodiplomacyandmilitarypropaganda.
Ukrainehasachancetowinthetotalwar,asitisopposedtothecountrywithlimitedtechnologicaland
financialresourceslow"marginofsafety"ofthepoliticalsystempopulationcharacterizedbyinherent
negativedemographicdynamicsandtheinabilitytoresisttheaggressivenationalminoritiesobsolete
army.TheresistanceoftheUkrainianpeopletotheRussianaggression,eventuallywillreturndisposition
oftheworldleadingpowers,aswellasdeepentheinternationalisolationofRussia.Moreover,inthe
conditionsoftotalwarmilitaryactionsoftheRussiasterritorywilldemoralizeanddemotivatethenation.
InthecaseofRussia'sdefeatinthiswar,theissueofDonbasandtheCrimeaownershipwillbewillbe
finallyresolved.Ukrainewillgetridofthe"fifthcolumn"ofopensupportersofthe"Russianworld".It
willgetitsown"heroicepos"asabasisforthepatrioticeducationoffuturegenerations.Mostofthe
issuesintheUkrainian-Russianrelationswillbefinallysettled,andthehistoricalpathsofthetwonations
willpartforever,andthelevelofantagonismwillreachitspeak.
EveninthecaseofseizureoftheUkrainianterritorybytheRussianarmy,thewarwillnotbeoverthe
guerrillamovementandsubversiveactivitiesagainsttheoccupierswillcontinue.Accordingtothis
scenario,therewillcometheinevitableinterventionoftheWestintheconflictinanyform,the
introductionofnewseveresanctionsagainsttheRussianFederation,thetotalpoliticalisolationofthe
Russianleadership,andperhaps,theexclusionoftheRussianFederationfromtheUNSecurityCouncil
andotherinternationalorganizations.Ontheotherhand,thepriceofvictorywillbedestroyed
infrastructureandeconomicpotentialofUkraine,numerousvictimsamongthecivilianandmilitaries.
ItshouldbenotedthatUkraine'stotalwarispurelydefensive.Itdoesnotnecessarilyleadtomass
casualtiesonthecontrary,thereadinessforsuchwarwilldetertheaggressorwithfearofsignificant
lossesandthethreatoftransferofhostilitiestoitsterritory.Themottoofthedefensivewarisunderstood
as"totalmobilizationintosurvive",anditspurposeis"todropthesuperiorforcesoftheaggressorback
onitsownterritorybyinflictinghimmaximumdemotivatinglosses".
Thisscenarioisthemostheroicandsacrificialbutatthesametimetheleastlikelyone.NeitherUkrainian
norRussianpeoplewanttofight.Nobodywantstolosethebenefitsofmodern,peacefullifeforthesake
ofwhimsofahandfulofpoliticaladventurers.
Ingeneral,thescenariooftotalwarisaimedatUkrainesvictoryandpreservationofitsterritorial
integrity.Historyknowsmanyexamplesofsuccessfulviscidsemi-guerrillawarsofsmallandmedium-
sizedstatesagainstlargerandmuchmorepowerfulones.However,thisscenariocanbringnotonly
victorybutalsosignificantlossestothecountry.
Inanycase,suchascenarioisnotthegoalforUkraine.Thegovernmentwillbeforcedtofollowitonly
whenRussiastartsafull-scaleopenattack.
Thesecondradicalscenario("cut-off"or"thewall"scenario)suggestsUkrainesultimateabandonment
oftheoccupiedterritoriesandacompletebreakupwiththem.Thefurtherhistoricalfateofthese
territorieswillbesignificantforUkraineonlyintermsofensuringitsownsecurity,namely,thepowerof
defensivestructuresandasufficientlevelofisolationoftheselands.Foracertainperiod,Ukrainian
statehoodwillneedreformattingandabilitytoadapttothecurrentsituation.However,thisperiodwillbe
relativelypainlessforUkrainebecauseoftheabsenceofregionsdominatedbyrenegadeandconsumer
sentiments,higherdensityandloyaltyoftheUkrainiansociety,favorableconditionsforthecountry's
reformandinternationalassistance.GeorgiaandMoldovastillexistevenafterhavingsufferedsevere
territoriallossesSerbiacontinuesitshistoricpathevenbeingdeprivedofitshistoricalland.
TheimplementationofthisscenariowouldinevitablycausedamagetoUkrainesprestigeinthe
internationalarena.Thisscenarioisalsobeneficialfortherepresentativesofthelocalsemi-criminal
oligarchy,which,inparticular,feedsoncross-bordercrimeandcorruption,aswellasforthepost-Soviet
underclasswhoearntheirlivingbylow-skilledlaborabroad(includingthecountry-aggressor).The
currentscenarioimpliestheuncompromising"amputation"ofanyrelationsandtheerectionofa
"protectivewall"aroundthenew"areasofsocialandpoliticalexclusion."RelationswithRussia,intheir
turn,shouldbereducedtoaminimum,whichsuggestsapossibleextensionofthe"securitywall"across
theRussian-Ukrainianborder.
Thecompliancewiththetotalisolationoftheoccupiedterritorieswillbeextremelydifficulttoensure.In
suchconditions,terroristswillfeelfreefromtheobligationsundertheMinskAgreementandwillcontinue
toattackUkrainian
territories,preventingtheinfrastructureofthenewborderfrombeingarranged.Inaddition,theexistence
of"holes"intheborderwillbeofgreatinterestforvariouscriminalelementswhogainprofitsfrom
smuggling,drugtrafficking,humantrafficking,illegalmigration,etc.
Thepossibilitytoimplementthisscenarioisbasedonthesignificantmentalgapbetweencertain
inhabitantsofthetemporarilyoccupiedDonbasandthemajorityoftheUkrainiansociety.Thelong-
lastinginfluenceofRussianpropagandaonthemindsofthosepeopleformedthemistakenideaofthe
possiblerestorationoftheSovietUnionwithRussia'shelpthosepeoplewereaccustomedtohatred
towardseverythingUkrainianandbroughtuptheyoungergenerationinthesamespirit.Disregardforthis
problemcontributedtothetragicconsequencesoftheannexationoftheCrimeaandtheoccupationofa
partoftheDonbas.NowadaystheUkrainiansocietyfrequentlywonderswhetheritisworthtocontinue
thestrugglefortheterritorydestroyedduringthearmedconflictandtheatrocitiesofRussianinvaders,
takingintoaccountthattheremainingpopulationofthoseterritoriesexpressesnodesiretoreturnunder
Ukrainianjurisdiction.Thisquestionbecomesespeciallyurgentduetothederivedbarriersonthewayto
Europeanintegrationanddelaysinthefurtherdemocraticreforms.Thescenarioofthecomplete
abandonmentoftheseparatistregionsisassociatedwiththelossofapartofthestateterritoryand
prestige.Moreover,itimpliesalongadaptationperiod.
Thethirdradicalscenario("satellite"scenario)suggeststhatUkrainewillsearchforthewaystoconclude
aseparatepeacewithRussiaonfavorableterms,willneglectinterestsofWesternpartners,recognizethe
Donbasautonomy,andrefusetoturnbacktheCrimea.SuchreconciliationwilldepriveUkrainesforeign
policyofindependenceandwilltieitshistoricalfatewiththeRussianFederation.Thepossiblecommon
futureoftwostatesisunlikelytodifferfromwhathadhappenedbeforeinthehistoryofbothnations,but
thewaythelosses,war,andrepressionhappenagain.TheUkrainianstatehasmanyproblemsofitsown
tocomplementtheproblemsoftheRussianstate.Inparticular,theaggravationofdomesticsocial
conflicts,thegrowthofreligiousfundamentalismandregionalseparatism,theeconomiccollapseofthe
resource-rich,buttechnologicallybackwardcountrywillhaveaninevitabledevastatingimpacton
Ukraine.
AsignificantthreattotheUkrainiansocietyisthepossibilityofitsinvolvementinanotherRussian
imperialadventure(fortheprevioustwotheRomanovempireandtheSovietUnionUkrainianshad
alreadypaidmillionsofvictims).Thisadventureinvolvesahopelessandlosingconfrontationwiththe
worldleading
nations(primarilytheUnitedStatesandtheEuro-Atlanticcommunity),andtherefore,newlosses,new
conflicts,andnewhistoricalturningpoints.
ItisclearthatsuchascenariomeetsneitherthenationalinterestsofUkrainenortheaspirationsofthe
Ukrainianpeople,whoclearlystatedtheirEuropeanchoiceattheendof2013,payingahighpriceofthe
lostlivesontheMaidan.
Thisscenarioishistoricallysuicidalandpoliticallymeaningless.RussianEmpirewillneverbeformed
completelyitwillalwaysbe"gettingonitsfeet,"or"gettingupfromitsknees".Theseeffortswillbe
followedbymillionsofvictimsandlossesofhistoricallyunprecedentedamountsofresourcesinwars,
famine,andrepressions.Anattempttoresolvetheconflictinsuchascenariowillcausemassprotestsin
Ukraine,whichwillspilloverintoanewMaidandemandingtheresignationoftheUkrainianleadership.
Thecountrywilleventuallybecomecompletelydestabilized.Thissituationwillcreateidealconditionsfor
Moscow'sinterventionintheinternalaffairsofUkraineandthecontinuationofRussianaggression.
Thefourthscenario("freezing"scenario)liesinthe"freezing"oftheconflictasitwasinTransnistria,
Abkhazia,orSouthOssetia.ThisdecisionisofsignificantinterestforRussia(however,thetotal
surrenderprovidedbythethirdscenariowillsuitittoagreaterextent),aswellasforsomecountriesof
theEUandthemostconformistandpro-RussianlayersoftheEuropeansociety.
Theessenceofthisscenarioliesinthattheconflict-affectedterritoriesofso-calledDNRandLNRwill
remainthepartsofUkraine,perhaps,onconditionofgivingthemspecialpowers.Economictiesbetween
theseterritoriesandtherestofUkraineshouldberestored,whichmeansthatUkrainewillhavetoassume
theeconomicburdenofreconstructionofdestroyedareasofDonbas.Atthesametime,thepuppet
regimecontrolledbyRussiawilldefactooperateinDonbaspursuingtheinterestsofanotherstate.
Russia,thus,willtrytoinfluencetheUkrainianforeignanddomesticpolicy.
ItisobviousthatthisscenariosuggeststhatUkrainewillsignificantlyslowdownonitswaytoEurope,
and"affected"dependentregionswillbecomeanewsourceofpoliticalinstabilityandeconomicburden
forUkraine.Atthesametime,oneshouldnotexpectaquietlife,becausetheconflictwillfurthersmolder
destabilizingthesituationbythethreattoreturntotheactivephase.
Atthesametime,thecessationofactivehostilitiesinDonbasand"reconciliation"impliedbythis
scenariowillgiveEuropeancountriesanexcuseforliftingthesanctionsagainsttheRussianFederation
anditspoliticalleaders,whichwillleadto
therestorationofeconomictiesandboosteconomicgrowthinRussia.However,theEuropeanleaders
willbeabletoturntheirattentiontothesolutionofproblemswithintheEUthatwillcontributetothe
growthoftheirpoliticalratings,asopposedtostrengtheningthe"fatigue"fromthecontinuationofthe
Russian-Ukrainianconflict.
DespitethefactthatthisscenariosuggestsaratherrapidcessationofactivehostilitiesinDonbas,Ukraine
willremainanunattractivestateofpermanentcrisiswithasignificantnumberofrepresentativesofvarious
internationalorganizations,humanitarianaidtrafficking,theenormousturnoverofsmugglingofillegal
weapons,drugsandthousandsof"bluehelmets"placedatthedemarcationline.Theperiodofthe
"frozen"formoftheconflictisunknown,aswellasitsresults.Historicalexperienceshowsthatwecan
talkaboutdecades,andasaresult,Ukrainewillreturntowhereitbegan,startinganewroundof
antagonism.
Ingeneral,theimplementationofthisscenariowillsatisfytheinterestsofbothRussiaandtheEU,butnot
ofUkraine,especiallyinthelongtermperspective.
Thefifthscenario("neitherwarnorpeace"or"limitedwarandpermanentnegotiation"scenario)provides
alimiteddeterrentwarintheEastagainstRussiaandthecollaboratorswiththeaimtoinflictthem
maximumdemotivatinglossespermanentnegotiatingprocess,butwithoutthefinalresultsreflectedina
varietyofarrangementsandformatsbuild-upofthemilitarypotentialofUkraine(primarilyofthe
military-technological)andthegradualtransitionfromblockingoftheopponenttohisdisplace,the
transitionfrompassivetoactivedefensetheincreaseoftheinternationalsanctionsanddiplomatic
isolationofRussiaconsistentandradicalreformationoftheUkrainiansocietyrapprochementwith
NATOandtheEuropeanUnionandtheformationofanumberofdefenseallianceswiththepost-Soviet
andCentralEuropeancountries.
Therealizationofthisscenariowillrequirepoliticalskillsandmentalendurance,aswellasthepresenceof
therapidreactionforcesandspecialoperationsforces,flexibleandcreativediplomacy,delicateand
"acrimonious"propaganda.
Despiterequiringmuchtime,skillsandpatienceforitsimplementation,thisscenariomakesitpossibleto
achievemaximumresultswithminimumlossesoflife.
Asitcanbeseen,noneofthescenariosshouldbeexcluded.Theyallcontaingreaterorlesserriskstothe
UkrainianpeopleandtheUkrainianstate.Thereareneitheridealoptionsnorsimplesolutions.An
importanttaskistofindtheoptimalbalanceofinterestsofallthepartiestotheconflict.
Althoughthescenariooftheconflicts"freezing"isundesirableandhistoricallyunpromisingforUkraine,
itispossiblethatundertheinfluenceofinternalandexternalcircumstancesUkrainewillhavetoagreeto
thisscenario.Inthiscase,thebalanceofinterestsshouldlieinthefactthatUkraineagreestotakecertain
risksonlyprovidedthatanumberofrequirementsaretakenintoaccountasriskabsorbers.
Firstly,theterritoriescapturedbypro-RussiancollaboratorsandRussianinvadersaretemporarily
withdrawnfromtheUkrainianjurisdictionandareputundertheinternationaljurisdiction.Ukrainestopsto
fulfillanyobligationstothosewhodecidedtostayonitsterritories,andthegeneraladministrationof
theseterritoriesisexercisedbythebodycomposedofrepresentativesofinternationalorganizationsand
thestatesconcerned.Anyeconomiccontactswiththeoccupiedterritoriesareceased,includingthe
supplyoffood,energyandetc.HumanitarianaidisprovidedonlyundertheauspicesoftheUNandthe
RedCross.
Secondly,Ukrainereservestheexclusiverighttodecideontherestorationofitsterritorialintegrityandto
carryoutthisrestorationinthemostappropriatetimeandthemostappropriateway.
Thirdly,thestatusoftheterritoriesoccupiedbyRussiaandcapturedbyterroristscanonlybetemporary
andshouldnotbereflectedintheConstitution.TheissueofconflictresolutioninDonbashasnothingto
dowiththequestionofthestatesystemofUkraineatleastbecausethefirstiscausedbytheexternal
aggression,andthesecondisapurelydomesticmatter.
Fourthly,ifthelocalDonbascollaborators,membersofbanditgroupsandotherpartnersoftheRussian
aggressionwerenotinvolvedinviolentcrimes(primarilyagainsthumanity),theyshouldbesubjectsto
amnesty.Amnestiedpersonsaredeprivedoftherighttoholdadministrativepositionsatalllevelsinthe
temporarilyoccupiedterritoriesofDonbasandthewholeUkraine.
Fifthly,thedemarcationlineisestablishedonaproportionalbasis,andeachofthewarringpartiesretains
controloverthemainpopulationcentersintheneutralline.DonetskandLuganskaredeclaredopenand
demilitarizedcitiesundertheinternationalcontrol.Themajorbordercrossingpointsonthepartofthe
Ukrainian-Russianborder,whicharetemporarilycontrolledbytheRussiaanditscollaborators,should
receivethesamestatus.
Sixthly,themilitarycontingent,whichwilldividethewarringparties,mustbecomposedprimarilyofthe
representativesofthearmedforcesofthosecountrieswhoseleaderswilldecidetocreateanew
TransnistriaandbuypeaceinEuropeat
thecostofUkrainianterritory.Moreover,Ukrainemustdemandthecreationofatleastthree,andnotone
(liketoday),militaryteamstogetherwiththecountriesofNATOthoseteamsshouldbelocatedaround
theareaofthefrozenconflictinthecitiesofKharkov,Dnipropetrovsk,Zaporizhzhia,Odessa,and
Mykolaiv.
Ukrainianterritoryshouldbecometheplaceofpermanentandcontinuousjointmilitarytraining,especially
withthoseNATOmember-countries,whichcanteachtheofficersandsoldiersofourarmy.
Seventhly,theUkrainiansidecontinuestodevelopandmodernizeitsarmedforcesandreservestheright
tousethemtosaveandrestoreitssovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.Ukrainewillframeitsmilitary
doctrineandmilitarypolicyinaccordancewiththenationalinterestsandprotectitscitizensonthewhole
territory,includingthetemporarilyoccupiedone.
Eighthly,Ukrainereceiveseconomiccompensationforitswillingnesstopreventalargemainland,and
perhapsevenaworldwaratthecostoftemporarylossofthepartofitsownterritory.Wearetalking
abouttheexpandedlendingtothenationaleconomy,promotionofinvestmentintheUkrainianagro-
industrialandmilitary-industrialcomplexes,inclusioninthepan-Europeanprogramofscientific,
technologicalandregionaldevelopment,providingadditionaltradingopportunitiesandassistanceintheir
implementation,assistanceinthefieldofenergysecurity.
Ninthly,theUkrainianstatereceivespoliticalcompensation,whichwillensurethestateindependenceand
definetheprospectsofUkrainesmembershipinNATOandtheEuropeanUnion.
ThoserequirementsoftheUkrainiansidemaybecomethebasisforfurtherlengthynegotiations,whichin
practicewouldmeannowar,nopeacestatewheretofightiswhichthefightisimpracticalandtoput
upisinappropriate.
Whilesolvingtheproblemsofthesouth-easternpartsofUkrainianDonbasandtheCrimea,oneshould
takeintoaccounttheinternationalcontextasmuchaspossible.Bothissuesareunlikelytobefinally
resolvedwithoutthecomprehensivetransformationofthepost-Sovietspaceandtheresolutionofthe
territorialconflictinKarabakh,Transnistria,Abkhazia,andSouthOssetia.Thereturnofthoseregionsto
thenationalstatesmaybeprecededbytheirtemporarytransferunderinternationaladministration.Butfor
thetimebeingUkraineshouldstarttopromotebydiplomaticandpropagandameanstheideaof
holdinganinternationalconferenceonpeaceandarrangingofthepost-Sovietspace.Itisrelevantinthis
contexttobringtogethertheeffortsofUkraine,Georgia,Moldova
andAzerbaijanwithinGUAMasarenewedregionalorganizationwithasignificantpotential.
TheissueoftheCrimeaoritsreturntoUkrainewillremainopenforalongtime.Itisclearthatthe
annexationofthepeninsulawillnotberecognizedbytheworldcommunity,anditwillcontinueits
isolatedexistenceasthepartoftheRussianFederation,whichhasnochancetolegitimizethisnew
territorialacquisitionattheinternationallevel.Ithastopaythepeopleforloyalty,tosuppressandatthe
sametimetrytobribeCrimeanTatars,toinvestininfrastructureprojectsand,moreimportantly,tospend
hugeamountsofmoneyonthemaintenanceoftheenormousmilitarybaseandthesignificantcontingent
oftroopswhichshouldprotectthisperipheralbranchofthelandintheclosedseaofallegedabuseof
NATOandUkrainesrightlyaspirations.
Ukrainewillnotreturnthislostregioninthenearestfuture.Itmaybepossibleonlyincasesome
unexpectedwonderoccurs,likeaninstantcollapseoftheRussianFederationortheUkrainianeconomic
miracle.ItisclearthatthedifficultpathofthereturnoftheCrimeaisahead,andnotallUkrainiansare
readytoovercomeitbecausemanyofthemfeelamoralaversiontothemajorityofthepopulationofthe
peninsulaanddonotconsiderthepeninsulaalandworthspillingbloodandenduringhardships.Thatis
whyiswillbenecessarytoconvincenotonlytheCrimeanpeoplebutalsoUkrainians.Thereturnofthe
Crimearemainsratherastatethannationalmatter.InUkraine,fewpeoplebelievethatitisnecessaryto
implementeconomicreformssolelyinordertobecomerich,topleasetheinhabitantsofthelost
peninsulaandtopersuadethemtoreturn.Ukrainiansfeelmoralobligationsandresponsibilitymainlyin
relationtotheCrimeanTatars,whosufferedthemost.Theyremaintheonlyindigenousnationofthe
Crimea,whichhadtherighttoself-determinationinaccordancewiththeinternationallaw,butwasnot
goingtouseit,beingapartofUkraine.NowtheindigenouspeopleoftheCrimeafacethethreatofanew
deportationcomingfromthecurrentillegalgovernmentoftheCrimea.
TheissueoftheCrimeahasthreeimportantvalueandnormativeaspects.Firstly,theannexationofthe
peninsulacauseddamagenotonlytotheresourcebaseandpower-forcepotentialofUkrainebutalsoto
itspublicprestigeandthemoralconditionofcitizens.Secondly,theannexationsignificantlyundermined
theworldorderduetotherejectionoftheprincipleofthebordersinviolability(theonethatprevailedin
internationalrelationsaftertheSecondWorldWar)aswellasduetobrazenimpudentviolationofthe
sovereigntyandterritorialintegrityofamemberoftheworldcommunity.Therefore,theproblemofthe
Crimearegardtothelatter,
evenmorethantoUkraineitself.Thirdly,theannexationhasshownasurprisingunityoftheRussian
society,bymakingthissocietycollectivelyresponsibleforthecrime.Evenasignificantpartoftheso-
calledoppositionwelcomedtheseizure,mitigatingitsimmoralandillegalpositionbytherequirementof
anotherreferendumonjoiningtheCrimeatoRussia.
DifficultiesofthereturnofthelostterritoriesshouldnotdemoralizetheUkrainianstateandpeople,
generatedespairanddistractfromtheconstantandlaboriouswork(diplomatic,military,and
propagandistic)forthereturn.Eventoday,itisclearthatthisprocesswilllastforlong.However,itis
immoralandshort-sightedtofreezetherestorationoftheterritorialintegrityandtoputthis
responsibilityontheshouldersoffuturegenerations.Inparticular,theattemptstounderstandtheproblem
intermsofbipolarityconsideringtheUkraine'sseparationlinefromthelostterritories,somethinglikea
newBerlinWall,causecertainobjections.Todaywecanhearthecallstowaitforthetimewhenthe
changeintheglobalandregionaldistributionofforcesoccurs,andwhenUkrainereachesamuchhigher
levelofdevelopment.Thus,thereoccursatransfertoaratherpeculiarsituationoftheUkrainianscenario
ofthereunificationofGermanyaftertheendofColdWar,whichwassymbolizedbythefallofthe
BerlinWall.
Thedescribedexpectantapproach,basedontheexcessivehistoricaloptimismandsuperficialhistorical
analogies,raisesanumberofobjections.Firstly,itwillbemorethanadozenyearsbeforethe
reunificationbytheGermanscenariohappens.Andwhenithappens,billionsofdollarswillhavetobe
spentontheprocessofassociation-reintegration(theexampleoftheEastandtheWestGermanyis
suitablehere).Secondly,thereisnoconfrontationbetweenthetwoglobalvalue-systemalternativesonthe
occupiedsouth-easternregionsofDonbasandtheCrimea.Thirdly,somesocioculturaldifferencesof
DonbasandCrimeafromtherestofUkrainearealreadyapparentandwillonlyaggravateduringthe
separateexistencethiswillcertainlycomplicatethefurtherreintegration.Fourthly,thehistoryofthe
previouserahasnotonlypositiveexamplessuchasGermany.Forinstance,nobodyknowswhenthe
unificationofKoreawilltakeplace.Vietnamhasrestoreditsterritorialintegritywiththehelpofmilitary
forcesandtotalitariancommunism,andnotapplyingtheliberal-democraticprinciples(theNorthVietnam
engulfedtheSouth).
Alongwiththat,historicalexperienceshowsthattheartificialstatetransformationsandforced
acquisitionsoftheterritoriesofotherstates,asarule,donottakeroot.Forexample,Lithuania,Latvia
andEstoniaaftertheforcedinclusionintheUSSR
andstayingitspartfor50yearsreturnedtotheirhistoricalpathofEuropeandevelopment,choosing
independenceandfurtherjoiningtheEuropeanUnion.
InthecaseoftheCrimea,thestruggleforthisterritorybetweenUkraineandRussiawilltakeplaceinthe
political,diplomatic,socio-culturaldimensions.However,thefinalchoiceshouldbemadebythepeople
oftheCrimea,andnotunderthemuzzlesofRussianguns,asitwasin2014,butinacivilizeddemocratic
wayandcompliancewiththeinternationallaw.Thereexistasufficientamountofrolemodelsinthisfield.
BeforethenextreferendumintheCrimea,theorganizersshouldcarefullystudytheexperienceofthe
peacefulseparationoftheCzechRepublicandSlovakia,orcarryingoutthereferendumonScottish
independencein2014.Theseprocesseshavenotcausedanydoubtsaboutthelegitimacyofthe
respectiveactionsandtheirlegalconsequences,asopposedtothefarcethattookplaceinCrimeain
2014.
ThearmedconflictinDonbaswilleventuallycometoanend.ItisclearthattheUkrainianpeopleare
interestedinthistohappenasquicklyaspossibleandwiththeleastlosses.Ukrainianscouldnottakefull
advantageofthepeacefulandcalmconditionsofthepreviousphaseofnation-building.Itisobviousthat
thecurrenteraofthestruggleforthestatereestablishmentandthetrueindependencewillbeaperiodof
hardeningandstrengthening,maturingandhealingofthesociety,whichwillfinallyovercomethepolitical
infantilismandall-encompassingcorruption.Negativeexperienceteachesquicklyandconvincingly.
TodaytheUkrainiangovernmentdefendsUkrainianfreedomandindependencewithweaponsinits
hands.Althoughthemilitary-politicalsituationremainsdifficult,Ukrainecontinuestostrengthenits
defensecapabilityandnationalsecurity,carriesoutdifficultandpainfulreforms,andmakesthestate
strongerinthefaceofcurrentandfuturethreats.
Warsusuallyplaytheroleofdividing(threshold)events,separatingthepastfromthefuture,oneerafrom
another.LetushopethatthecurrentRussian-Ukrainianarmedconflictwillfinallyseparatetheformer
post-Sovietcorrupt,cravenanddependentUkrainefromthefutureEuropeanUkraine,thebrave,strong
anddynamicone.
http://en.niss.gov.ua/public/File/englishpublic/Five_scenarios_for_the_Ukrainian-Russian_relations.pdf
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/27/201609:00:19AM
To: LindaNemec<lindanemec@gmail.com>RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: NYTimes:DonaldTrumpChallengesRussiatoFindHillaryClintonsMissingEmails
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/28/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-clinton-emails.html?smid=nytcore
-iphone-share&smprod=nytcore-iphone
Russia,ifyourelistening,Ihopeyoureabletofindthe30,000emailsthataremissing,Mr.
Trumpsaid,staringdirectlyintothecameras.SentfrommyiPhone
From: KevinRothrock<krothrock@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/27/201606:49:29AM
Subject: WhitmorethrowsdownonFacebook
KevinJ.Rothrock
16hrs
"Imaginethatyourteenagechildhasbuiltabombandhasjustsetitoffin
yourhouse.Thehouseisfallingdownallaroundyouandyouareblaming
theneighborskid,whothrewapebbleatyourwindow.Thatswhatthe
recentPutinfixationislikeawaytoevadethefactthatTrumpisa
thoroughlyAmericancreationthatposesanexistentialthreattoAmerican
democracy."
MashaGessennailsit.
TheTrump-PutinFallacy
Trumpisnotaforeignagent,controlledbyPutin.HeisathoroughlyAmerican
creationthatposesanexistentialthreattoAmericandemocracy.NowthatTrump
hasbecometheRepublicannomineeandhaspulledevenorevenslightlyahead
of
NYBOOKS.COM | BYMASHAGESSEN
Like ShowmorereactionsComment Share
17 DenisVolkov,SeanGuilloryand15others
1share 5Comments
SeanGuilloryWowIhaven'tagreedwithherinalongtime.Timesarereally
crazy.
UnlikeReply 2 13hrs
MikhailFaynshrayberTwobaldfellows
LikeReply12hrs
BrianWhitmoreExceptthatnobodyisclaimingthatTrumpisPutin'screation.
That'saredherring.PutinisclearlyexploitingTrump'sappearance,though.
JustasheisexploitingLePen,Brexit,themigrantcrisis,xenophobiain
Europe.ToframethedebatearoundwhetherPutincreatedthesethingsis
ridiculousandmissesthepoint.
LikeReply 2 7hrs
SeanGuilloryWhenvariouspunditsrepeatedlyrefertosomeoneas
Manchuriancandidatethat'sprettymuchwhatthey'resaying.
LikeReply1hr
BrianWhitmoreIhaven'theardanybodyserioussayPutincreatedtheTrump
phenomenon.EverybodyunderstandsthatitistheproductofAmerican(and
morespecificallyRepublican)politics.Toargueagainstthisistoargue
againstastrawman.Putinis,however,clearlyexploitingthesituationanyway
hecan--justashehasbeendoinginsimilarsituationsinEuropeforyears.
Todenythatisdelusional.
LikeReply22mins
KevinJ.RothrockNotcreated,butthatPutinwillberesponsiblefor
Trump'spossiblevictory.Thisisdelusional,I'dargue,andit
scapegoatsaforeignadversaryfortheUnitedStates'owndisturbing
politicaldevelopments.CallingTrumpaManchurianorSiberian
candidatedoesn'tjustexaggeratePutin'sinfluenceonUSpoliticsit
ignoreswhatactuallymotivatesAmericanvotersandshiftsblame
irresponsibly.IthinkthesamethingcanbesaidabouttheKremlin's
supportforfringemovementsinEurope,thoughI'mawareofcourse
thatpeopledisagreehere.AtleastclaimsthatPutinengineeredBrexit
seemtohavebeenlaughedoutoftheroomdeservedly.
AsforRussia's"clearexploitation"oftheUSrace:(1)Iseeno
evidencethatRussiahasmanagedtomanipulateanything
significantly(thebadvibeswiththeBernieBrospredatetheDNCleak,
andtheleakitselfwasn'tallthatdamning)and(2)Iagreewith
Gessen,anddisagreewithwhatseemstobethecurrentWashington
consensus,thataTrumppresidencyishardlyappealingtoPutin,
giventhatDonaldTrumpishighlyunpredictable,despitehiscampaign
manager'sbusinessdealingswithanoldKremlinstoogeandhisties
toRT.
LikeReply 1 6mins
Writeareply...
Writeacomment...
Senttime: 08/01/201610:33:14AM
FW:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UAinNYT+9More
Subject: Stories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREE
AMIGOSFORA...
Subject:Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UAinNYT+9
MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREE
AMIGOSFORA...
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at12:23PM
Subject:Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT
&UAinNYT+9MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfrom
DailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREEAMIGOSFORANINSANEWORLD(JA-DT-VP)'[ZKinNationalInterestTries
toDissectan'EmergingTrumpDoctrine'
To:
Subject:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UA
inNYT+9MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDaily
Beast]THESTORYOF'THREEAMIGOSFORANINSANEWORLD(JA-DT-VP)'[ZKinNationalInterestTriesto
Dissectan'EmergingTrumpDoctrine'
Date:Mon,Aug1,2016at11:00AM
Subject:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE
ODnote:Readingthearticlesbelow,Icouldnthelpbutreflectthattoday,August1,2016marksthe41stanniversary
ofthesigningoftheHelsinkiFinalAct.WithitsillegaloccupationofCrimeaandaggressionineasternUkraine,
RussiacontinuestoflagrantlyflouteverysingleoneoftheOSCEprinciplesenshrinedinthisseminalagreement,
includingterritorialintegrity,inviolabilityofborders,andsovereignty.Heretofore,everymajorpartypresidential
candidatehassupportedthetenetsfoundintheHelsinkiFinalAct(includingtwoRepublicanBobDoleand
DemocratHillaryClinton-whoasSenatorsatsomepointduringtheirtenuresservedontheHelsinkiCommission).
TheNewYorkTimes
DonaldTrumpGivesQuestionableExplanationofEventsinUkraine
ByDAVIDE.SANGERandMAGGIEHABERMANJULY31,2016(August1,2016printedition)
DonaldJ.TrumponSundayofferedamuddledexplanationofhisviewsaboutthe2014annexationofCrimeaby
RussiaanditscontinuedeffortstoundermineUkrainescontrolofotherpartsofthecountry,andheamplifiedhis
earliersuggestionthat,ifelectedpresident,hemightrecognizeRussiasclaimandendsanctionsagainstit.
InaninterviewwithGeorgeStephanopoulosontheABCNewsprogramThisWeek,Mr.Trumpsaidthatifhewere
president,PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.Hethenbackpedaledwhen
Mr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefornearlytwoyears.
HesnotgoingintoUkraine,O.K.,justsoyouunderstand,Mr.Trump,theRepublicannominee,saidwhentheissue
cameup.HesnotgoingtogointoUkraine,allright?Youcanmarkitdown.Youcanputitdown.Youcantakeit
anywhereyouwant.
Well,hesalreadythere,isnthe?Mr.Stephanopoulosinterrupted.
O.K.,well,hesthereinacertainway,Mr.Trumpreplied.ButImnotthere.YouhaveObamathere.Andfrankly,
thatwholepartoftheworldisamessunderObamawithallthestrengththatyouretalkingaboutandallofthepower
ofNATOandallofthis.Inthemeantime,hesgoingaway.HetaketakesCrimea.
InterpretingMr.TrumpsstatementswhatheunderstandsaboutthecurrentstatusofUkraine,aformerSoviet
republic,andhowitwouldchangeinaTrumpadministrationisdifficultgiventhefracturednatureoftheexchange.
ButtheyweresignificantbecauseMr.TrumphasseeminglyembracedMr.Putin,repeatedlycalledforbetterrelations
withRussiaandshownanunwillingnesstocondemnMr.PutinforhisaggressiveactionsagainstRussiasneighbors
anditscrackdownsonfreedomsathome.
QuestionshavebeenraisedaboutthewateringdownofasectionoftheRepublicanplatformdealingwithUkraine
amidevidencethatwordingtosupportsendinglethalweaponstotheUkrainiangovernmentwasremovedfromthe
text.
Notsince1976,whenPresidentGeraldFordcommittedamajorgaffeinoneofhisdebateswithJimmyCarter,
declaringthatthereisnoSovietdominationofEasternEurope,hastheissueofAmericansupportofEastern
Europeanstates,boththoseinNATOandthoseoutsideit,emergedasamajorpresidentialcampaignissue.Itwas
enormouslyharmfultoMr.Ford,becausehisstatementseemedtosuggestthathedidnotunderstandthegeopolitics
oftheregion,whichhisstaffdenied.
Ukrainebecameaseparatenationin1991afterthefalloftheBerlinWallandthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.It
steadilyflirtedwiththeWestandwithNATO,andRussianofficialsfeareditwouldbepulledoutofMoscowsorbit.
Butapro-Russianpresident,ViktorF.Yanukovych,wasdemocraticallyelectedin2010andremainedinpoweruntil
hewasoustedin2014,ultimatelytakingupexileinRussia.
Mr.Yanukovychhadhiredalobbyingfirmco-foundedbyPaulManafort,nowMr.Trumpscampaignmanager,to
improvehisimageintheWestandavoidpunishmentforveeringtowardRussia.
TheannexationofCrimeain2014wasseenasbothapowergrabandalandgrabbyMr.Putin.Itwascondemned
bytheUnitedStatesanditsEuropeanallies,whichallissuedsanctions.Sincethen,Russiantroops,oftenoutof
uniform,havebeenseen,andsometimeskilled,inRussian-speakingpartsofUkrainewhereapro-Russiainsurgency
hasfoughtthecurrentUkrainiangovernment.
RepublicansinCongresshavelongpressedformoreassistancetoUkrainetopushbackagainstMr.Putin,including
lethalaid.ButallreferencestogivinglethalaidtotheUkrainiangovernmentwerekeptoutofthepartyplatform.
InearlyJuly,adelegateofferedaplatformamendmenttosupportlethalaid.AdelegateforSenatorTedCruzfrom
Texas,DianaDenman,saidinaninterviewthatshehadpushedforinclusionofthelanguage.ButMs.Denmansaidher
amendment,asproposed,wasnevervotedonbecausetwomenwhowereobservingthepanelsdeliberationsmoved
totabletheamendment,andsuggestedthatitbediscussedlater.
TheyopenlysaidtheywerehiredbytheTrumpcampaignandworkedforMr.Trump,Ms.Denmansaid,adding
thatshedidnotrecalltheirnames.InthefinalversionoftheRepublicanplatform,thewordsaboutweaponswere
droppedandreplacedbythetermappropriateassistance.
Mr.TrumpacknowledgedintheABCinterviewthatthelanguagehadbeenwatereddown,buthesaidhehadnothing
todowithit.(Mr.Manaforthasalsosaidhewasunawareofthematter.)
Iwasntinvolvedinthat,Mr.Trumpsaid.Honestly,Iwasnotinvolved.Butheacknowledgedthathissupporters
were.Theysoftenedit,Iheard,butIwasnotinvolved,hesaid.
Mr.TrumpwentontoarguethatMr.PutinmighthavebeenwelcomeinCrimea,sidesteppingtheissueofwhetherthe
Russianleaderhadviolatedthesovereigntyofanotherstatetotaketheterritory,whereRussiahasamajornavalbase.
ThepeopleofCrimea,fromwhatIveheard,wouldratherbewithRussiathanwheretheywere,Mr.Trumpsaid.
Andyouhavetolookatthat,also.
Hewentontosay,Ukraineisamess,butheputtheblameforthatonMr.Obama,notonMr.Putin.
JakeSullivan,thechiefpolicyadvisertoHillaryClinton,Mr.TrumpsDemocraticopponent,saidtheassessment
reinforcedhislackoftemperamentalfitnessforthepresidency.
TodayhegamelyrepeatedPutinsargumentthatRussiawasjustifiedinseizingthesovereignterritoryofanother
countrybyforce,Mr.Sullivansaid.Thisisscarystuff.Butitshouldntsurpriseus.
FollowDavidE.Sanger@SangerNYTandMaggieHaberman@maggieNYTonTwitter.
BarryMeiercontributedreporting.
TheWashingtonPost
TrumpsuggestsUSacceptRussiasannexationofCrimea
ByAssociatedPress
August1at3:24AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-suggests-us-accept-russias-annexation-of-crimea/2016/07/31/fc7f14f6-576b-
11e6-8b48-0cb344221131_story.html
WASHINGTONRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpissuggestingtheU.S.acceptRussiasannexationofCrimea
ifitwouldleadtobetterrelationswithMoscowandstrongercooperationinfightingIslamicStatemilitants.
ThatviewrunscountertotheObamaadministration,whichimposedeconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaforannexingtheterritoryin
Ukrainetwoyearsago.TheUnitedNationsalsodoesntwantcountriestorecognizeCrimeaaspartofRussia,andsometop
RepublicansstaunchlydefendCrimeaagainstwhattheyconsiderRussianaggression.
InaninterviewbroadcastSundayonABCsThisWeek,TrumpsuggestedthatthepeopleofCrimeawouldratherbepartof
Russia.However,theU.S.hasntrecognizedthelegitimacyofRussianreferendumsinCrimeaandbelievestheywerenot
conductedfairly.
TrumpalsosaidhewasntinvolvedintheeffortthatsoftenedsupportintheRepublicanPartyplatformonassistingUkraine.
Althoughtheplatformisnotpro-Russia,TrumpsupporterssucceededinpreventingareferencetoarmingUkrainefrombeing
added.
Inthepast,Trumpscampaignmanager,politicalstrategistPaulManafort,lobbiedonbehalfofViktorYanukovych,aUkrainian
presidentandsupporterofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.ManaforthassaidneitherhenoranyoneelsewiththeTrump
campaignpushedfortheplatformchanges.
OnthetopicofPutinandUkraine,theRepublicansaid:HesnotgoingintoUkraine,OK,justsoyouunderstand.Hesnotgonna
gointoUkraine,allright?Youcanmarkitdown.Youcanputitdown.Youcantakeitanywhereyouwant.
ABCsGeorgeStephanopoulossaid,Well,hesalreadythere,isnthe?Trumpreplied,OK.Well,hesthereinacertainway.
TheClintoncampaignpointedtotheexchangetoquestionwhatTrumpknowsaboutthesubjectandarguedthattheRepublicanis
repeatingPutinstalkingpointsonCrimea.
Thisisscarystuff,ClintoncampaignspokesmanJakeSullivansaidinastatement.Butitshouldntsurpriseus.Thiscomeson
theheelsofhistacitinvitationtotheRussianstoinvadeourNATOalliesinEasternEurope.AnditsyetmoreproofwhyDonald
Trumpistemperamentallyunfitandtotallyunqualifiedtobecommanderinchief.
politics
InresponsetootherquestionsaboutU.S.-Russiarelations,Trumpdismissedsuggestionsthathehasanykindofrelationshipwith
Putin,sayinghehasneithermetPutinnorspokenonthephonewithhim.Askedwhyhehadsaidseveraltimesinthepastthathe
hadarelationshipwithPutin,Trumpsaidhedoesntknowwhathavingarelationshipmeans.
Hehassaidnicethingsaboutmeovertheyears,TrumpsaidofPutin.Irememberyearsago,hesaidsomething,manyyears
ago,hesaidsomethingveryniceaboutme.Isaidsomethinggoodabouthimwhen(broadcaster)LarryKingwason.Thiswasa
longtimeago.
TrumpsaiditwouldbeagreatthingiftheUnitedStatesgotalongwithRussiaandifRussiawouldhelpfighttheIslamicState
group.
WellhaveabetterrelationshipwithRussia,hesaid.AndhavingagoodrelationshipwithRussiaisagoodthing,notabad
thing.
(OD:Timedoesnotpermitmetoincludeallarticlesonthissubject,soIvelimitedmyselftothetwoabove)
[ED:ONITEMBELOW..KeyQuoteisfromAmb.Pyatt:
IwasalsoencouragedbytheveryclearfocusontheissueofaccessfortheOSCEmonitorsinEasternUkraine.Its
becomeincreasinglyapparentjustfromreadingtheSMMreportsthatthisisaproblemalmostentirelyonthe
separatist,Russian-controlledsideoftheContactLine.About90percentofaccessdenialshappenonthatsideofthe
line.AndaveryclearmessagefrombothAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikabouttheneedtoaddressthisissue,including
OSCEaccesstotheinternationallyrecognizedborderwhichitvirtuallydoesnothaveatthispoint,outsidetwoisolated
points.AndthataccesstotheborderaspreparationforrestorationoffullUkrainiancontroloftheinternationalborder
whichisanessentialrequirementforfullimplementationoftheMinskAgreements.]
USEmbassyKyiv
http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/statements/pyatt-baer-07292016.html
TelephonicPressBriefingbyU.S.AmbassadortoUkraineGeoffreyPyattandU.S.PermanentRepresentativetothe
OSCEDanielBaer
BrusselsMediaHub
July29,2016
Moderator:ThankyousomuchandgreetingstoeverybodyfromtheU.S.DepartmentofState.Iwouldliketowelcomeallof
youwhohavedialedinonthisFridaymorningfromacrossEuropeandIdliketothankyouforjoiningintodaysdiscussion.
WearepleasedthismorningtobejoinedfromViennabytwodistinguisheddiplomats.WehaveU.S.AmbassadortoUkraine
GeoffreyPyattandU.S.PermanentRepresentativetotheOSCE,AmbassadorDanielBaer.Andofcoursewearingtheir
respectivehatstheywillprovideyouanupdateonthesituationintheUkraine.
WearegoingtobegintodayscallwithopeningremarksfromAmbassadorBaerandthenAmbassadorPyatt,andthenwewill
turntoyourquestions.Andofcourseweregoingtotrytogettoasmanyaswecaninthetimethatwehave.
Asareminder,todayscallisontherecordandwiththatIwillturnitovertoyou,AmbassadorBaer.
AmbassadorBaer:ThankssomuchMireille,andthankyouverymuchtoallofyouwhohavejoinedusacrossseveraltime
zones.Iknowforsomeitsmid-morning,forothersitsyourmorningcupofcoffeeandweappreciateyourjoiningusthis
morning.
Justrealquickatthetop,yesterdaywehadameetinginthePermanentCouncilwhereAmbassadorMartinSajdikwhohasbeen
leadingtheTri-LevelContactGroupthatismadeupofOSCEasamediatorandRussiaandUkraineandthathastheseworking
groupsthathavebeenoperatinginMinskovermanymonthsnow,aswellasfromAmbassadorApakanwhoistheleaderofthe
OSCESpecialMonitoringMissioninUkraine.Bothofthemgaveaunitedmessageabouttheimportanceofachievinga
reinstatementoftheceasefireasafirststeptowardsanyfurtherprogressinreachingadiplomaticorpoliticalsituation.
ThesenseintheroomIthinkfromtheother56PermanentRepresentativesaswellasourdelegationwasthatthesituationhas
gottendramaticallyworseinthelastweeks.Wereseeingcasualtiesataratethatwehaventseenforayearnow.Andthefirst
stephasbeenthistalkaboutadisengagementplanthatwouldbedisengagementatseveralhotspotsalongtheLineofContact.
Unfortunately,therewasanefforttoreachanagreementonthedisengagementplanthisweekinMinsk.AmbassadorSajdik
reportedthattheywill,andAmbassadorApakan,reportedthattheywillmakeanotherattemptnextweekinMinsktogetthat
disengagementplanengaged.
ButIthinkoneofthethingsthatbecomesevercleareristhatweneedtoseewordsmatchedwithactions.TheRussianFederation
yesterdayagainclaimedthattheywanteddisengagement.TheyevenaskedthattheSMM,themonitoringmission,spendmore
timemonitoringonbothsidesoftheLineofContact.Butonthegroundweseeaverydifferentpicture.Weseecontinued
resupplyofweaponsandfighters.Weseecontinuedprovocationstokeeptheconflictgoing.Weseecontinuedrestrictionsofthe
SMManditsmonitors.Weseecontinuedshoot-downsofSMMUAVsaftertheyveseenRussianweaponry,heavyweaponsin
areaswhereitshouldntbe.
AndsothemessagethatwasdeliveredtotheRussianFederationyesterdaybymany,manyparticipatingstatesinthePermanent
Councilwasitstimetomatchyourwordswithactionandtogetthatdisengagementontheground.Thedisengagementisonlya
firststepthathastobeconsolidatedandbuiltintoarealceasefire.Therehastobemonitoringontheborder,andallofthose
thingsareanecessarypreconditioninordertoenablethediplomaticandpoliticalprocesstomoveforward.
IwillstopthereandturnitovertoAmbassadorPyatt.
AmbassadorPyatt:Great.Thankyou,Dan.
FirstofallletmesaywhatapleasureitistobehereinVienna.AmbassadorBaerhasbeenaskingmetodothisvisitforabout
twoyearsnowandIfinallygotaroundtoit.
Forme,inpartitwasachancetoexpressdeepappreciationforthepartnershipIveenjoyedwithAmbassadorsApakanand
Sajdik.IthinktheOSCEdoesnotgetallthepubliccredititdeservesfortheessential,courageousrolethatithasplayedin
Ukraine.OSCEactionshavesavedlivesoverthepasttwoandahalfyears.
ItwasalsoachanceformetoseeoneofthePermanentCouncilsandsortoftakethetemperatureofadiscussionwiththedaily
realitythatIlivewith.IwillsayIwasparticularlyencouragedbytheverystrongstatementfromtheEuropeanUnionandthe
messagefromourmanyEuropeanpartnersabouttheimportanceofRussiasactions,andaveryclearmessagethattherelaxation
ofsanctionswillbelinkedtothefullimplementationbytheRussianFederationoftheMinskagreements.
IwasalsoencouragedbytheveryclearfocusontheissueofaccessfortheOSCEmonitorsinEasternUkraine.Itsbecome
increasinglyapparentjustfromreadingtheSMMreportsthatthisisaproblemalmostentirelyontheseparatist,Russian-
controlledsideoftheContactLine.About90percentofaccessdenialshappenonthatsideoftheline.Andaveryclearmessage
frombothAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikabouttheneedtoaddressthisissue,includingOSCEaccesstotheinternationally
recognizedborderwhichitvirtuallydoesnothaveatthispoint,outsidetwoisolatedpoints.Andthataccesstotheborderas
preparationforrestorationoffullUkrainiancontroloftheinternationalborderwhichisanessentialrequirementforfull
implementationoftheMinskAgreements.
TheotherpointthatIconveyed,asidefromreaffirmingthemessagesthatcamefromAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikaboutthe
deterioratingmilitarysituation,wasalsoourconcernaboutthecontinuedpresenceofRussianorigintroopsandequipmenton
Ukrainianterritory.Andtheintroductionofsomenewweaponsystemswhichwebelieveisatleastpartiallytheexplanationforthe
alarmingspikeinviolenceandcasualtiesthatweveseeninrecentweeks.
Soagain,Illbehappytotakequestionsinwhateverdirectionisusefultopeople.
Moderator:Thankyouverymuch.Thankstobothofyouforsettingthestageforus.
Wearenowgoingtogotothequestionandanswerportionoftodayscall.IbelieveAnnaKorbutisthefirstinthequeuewiththe
UkrainianWeekly.
Question:ThisisAnnaKorbutfromtheUkrainianWeek.IhaveaquestionforbothAmbassadors.
Inyouropinion,whatisthepossibilityofplacingthearmedOSCE,thearmedmissionpoliceintheoccupiedpartsoftheDonbas
alongtheborderandalongtheContactLineandisthatoptionbeingdiscussed?Thankyou.
AmbassadorBaer:AsIsaid,thefocusrightnowisonrestoringtheceasefireandgettingastable,sustainedceasefirebecause
thatisapreconditionforeverythingelse.
Oneoftheconversationsthatshappeninghereandinotherplacesaswell,isobviouslyoneofthepartsoftheMinskAgreements
thatmanyofushavebeenfocusedonisthecommitmenttohavefreeandfairelectionsaccordingtointernationalstandardsand
observedbytheOSCE,byODIHR,andtohavethoselocalelectionsintheareasoftheDonbasthatarecurrentlycontrolledby
Russianseparatists.
IthinkoncetheresaceasefireontheLineofContact,oncetheresasustainedceasefireontheLineofContact,itwillbe
necessarytoassesswhatfurtherenhancementtosecurityisnecessaryinordertohavefreeandfairelections.Butthefirststep,no
matterwhat,isaceasefire.Andtobecrystalclear,theSMM,thecurrentmonitoringmission,hasamandate.Itisacivilian
monitoringmissionwithunarmedmonitors.AndtheSMMhasamissionitshouldcontinuetodowhatitsdoing.Itshoulddoits
mission.Welltakealook,wellhavetodoanassessmentoncethereisasustainedceasefireaboutwhatadditionaltoolsmaybe
necessaryandmaybepossible,andobviouslyoneofthethingsthathasbeentalkedaboutbysomepeopleisapolicemissionor
securitypresenceofsomesort.Thatmaybenecessary.ButtheSMMwillcontinuetobeacivilian,unarmedmission.Ithink
thatstheimportantpointfortoday.
Moderator:Thankyou.OurnextquestioniscomingtousfromGermanysARD.WehaveThomasNehlsontheline.Thomas,
goahead.
Question:BothAmbassadorsmentionedthegapbetweenspeakingandactingontheRussianside,butIwonderwhetherthere
couldbealsosomethingmissedontheUkraineside.Whatisthesituation,whatisthestatusinthefieldoftheautonomytalks?I
meanisanothercondition,thepeopleintheoccupiedterritoriesalsomention.Whatareweuptorightnow?
Andthesecondquestion,ifImay,isthereanyburdentoyouwhonegotiateveryhardandtoughthroughwhatMr.Trumpsaid.I
meanitsnotanobody,andhewasgoingto,asfarasIknow,toaccepttheannexingofCrimea.
AmbassadorPyatt:ThisisGeoffPyatt.
Ithink,Thomas,onyourimportantquestion,andyoureright,thereareobligationswhichUkraineundertookaspartoftheMinsk
Agreement.ButthesimplefactisUkrainehasexecutedthevastmajorityofitsobligations.AndPresidentPoroshenkohas
reaffirmedthosecommitmentspubliclyandprivatelyjustoverthepastfewdays.
Ukrainehaspassedanamnestylaw.Ukrainehashadthefirstreadingofaconstitutionalamendment.Ukrainehaspasseda
specialstatuslaw.ButitsveryclearthatRussiahasnotdischargeditsobligations.Thetroopsandequipmenthavenotbeen
withdrawn.Aceasefirehasnotbeenimplemented.Allhostageshavenotbeenreleased.AndtheUkrainianpositionwhichthe
UnitedStatessupports,isthatthefirsttasknow,asAmbassadorBaersaid,istherestorationoftheceasefire.Oncethats
accomplished,wehopethattherecanbeastepbystepprocessofimplementationofthefurtherstepsrequiredunderMinsk.That
isanapproachthatwehaveheardfromChancellorMerkel,fromPresidentHollande,andIshouldaddtheUnitedStatesisputting
maximumeffortintoreinforcingandsupportingtheeffortsofouralliesintheNormandyGroup.Infactthiswasatopicof
conversationjustthisweekbetweenPresidentObamaandChancellorMerkel,anditsnotacoincidencethatthatphonecallwith
theWhiteHousefollowedalmostimmediatelyonaphonecallbetweenChancellorMerkelandPresidentPoroshenko.
SoweareverycloselylashedupinKyivwithouralliesandIknowthatsthecasehereinViennaaswell.
AmbassadorBaer:ThisisDanBaer.
Youllforgivemefornotbeingabletogoonatlengthonyoursecondquestion,butIdothinkitsimportant.Obviouslyweknow
peoplearefollowingcloselythecampaignathome,andAmericancampaignsarealwayscolorfulandfuntowatch.ButIthinkits
importantforpeopletorememberthatAmericanforeignpolicywithrespecttoEuropeansecurityhasactuallybeenremarkably
consistentovermanydecadesthroughDemocraticandRepublicanadministrations,includingoursteadfastcommitmenttoNATO
asabedrockofsecurityintheEuropeanspaceourcommitmenttointernationallaw,andIthinktheenduringinterestofnotonly
Americancitizensbutcitizensofallothercountriesinhavingarules-basedsystemthatincludestherespectforterritorialintegrity
andnotchangingbordersbyforcewillcontinuethroughthenextpresidentandthepresidentafterthat.SoIthinkitsimportantfor
peopletokeepaneyeonboththelonghistorythatwehaveinourcommitmenttoEuropeansecurityaswellasthelonggame
goingforward.
Moderator:Thankyou.
ForournextquestionweregoingtojumpovertoGreeceandwehaveKostasMavraganisfromHuffingtonPostGreeceonthe
line.
Question:HellofromGreece.
SomequestionsforAmbassadorPyatt.InlightofyoubecomingthenewU.S.AmbassadorinGreece,Iwouldaskyouto
commentonthepossiblerepercussionsofthecoupattemptTurkeyonGreco-Turkishrelations.Aretensionstobeexpected?
AndalsowhataboutU.S.-TurkishrelationsandRussia-Turkishrelations?Inadditiontothese,whatistheU.S.positiononthe
matterofTurkishofficersseekingpoliticalasyluminGreece?
AmbassadorPyatt:Thankyouforthequestions.IverymuchlookforwardtomeetingyouwhenImonthegroundinAthens
andtakeoverasU.S.AmbassadortoGreece.
Fornow,ImstillAmbassadortoUkrainethough,soIhopeyoullforgivemeifIpassonyourquestions,defertomyfriendand
colleagueAmbassadorPearceonthosethingsfornow.
IwillsaythoughonthesortofmovethatIwillbemakinginthenextcoupleofweeks,itisstrikingtomeasIgettomovetothe
countrythatisthebirthplaceofdemocracy,tocomefromacountry,Ukraine,wherepeoplehavestruggledsovaliantlyoverthe
pasttwoyearstobothaffirmtheirdemocracybutalsobepartofalargerEuropeancommunity.AndIthinktheonepiecethatI
wanttospendsometimethinkingaboutasImanagethistransitionmyselfisthereallyremarkablestorythatIvelivedthroughand
seenoverthepastthreeyearswhichisUkrainiansmakingextraordinarysacrificesinpursuitofavisionofEuropeanvaluesand
Europeaninstitutionsthatisquitepowerfulandenormouslyattractive.AndIthinkitsworththinkingaboutinthecontextofthis
largerdebateoverEuropeaninstitutions.ItsworthbearinginmindthatforaverylargecountryattheheartofEurope,acountry
of45millionpeople,howverycompellingtheEuropeanpackagestillis.
Soletmeleaveitonthat.Andagain,Iapologize.IwillbeveryhappytoengagewithyouontheGreece-specificquestionsbut
ImgoingtowaituntilImactuallydoingthatjob.
Moderator:Thanks.
NowweregoingtomoveovertoRomania,andwehaveDragosCosicfromDigi24ontheline.
Question:Thankyouverymuch.IhavetwoquestionsforbothoftheAmbassadors.
RomaniaisveryconcernedaboutthesecurityintheBlackSea.Iwouldliketoknowyourassessmentsaboutthisissue.
Andalso,IwouldliketoaskyouaboutthesecurityinotherpartsofUkraine.Wesawdifferentnewsaboutsomemovementsfor
exampleintheWesternpart,andalsoRomaniasinterestinthesouthernpart,citieslikeOdessa.Thankyouverymuch.
AmbassadorPyatt:Thankyouverymuch,Dragos.Firstofall,IshouldsayRomaniahasbeenagoodpartner.IwasinOdessa
justlastweekendforalargemaritimeexercisethatUkrainewashostingalongwiththeUnitedStates,butRomaniawasalsovery
prominentthere.Youhadashipinport.TherewereacoupleofRomanianofficersatareceptionIhostedonSundaynight.
WetooareveryinterestedandveryengagedonthesequestionsofBlackSeasecurity.Thatwaspartofthemessageofthevery
largeSeaBreezeexercisewhichweallparticipatedin.Designedtobothbuildinteroperabilityandthereweresomeverycomplex
aspects,unusuallycomplexaspectstothisyearsexerciseincludingabeachlandingveryclosetowhatusedtobeRomania,down
inBessarabia.ButalsotoraiseUkrainiancapacity,especiallyinlightoftheillegaloccupationandannexationofCrimeaand
everythingthatflowedfromthat.
Sothatwillcontinuetobeourapproach.Wearegoingtocontinue,ImspeakingfortheUnitedStates,continuetohaveavery
forthrightandclearviewontheillegalstatusofRussiasactionsinCrimea.
OntherestofUkraine,Iknowitshardtobelievesometimesfollowingtheheadlineswhichareunderstandablyfocusedonwhats
happeninginDonbas.ThepointIwouldmakeabouttherestofUkraineisitsactuallyquiteremarkablehownormaland
successfultherestofUkraineisbeing.Theeconomyisgrowing.Businessesarereopening.Thereisaquiteprofoundsenseof
resolveamongUkrainians,andIspeaktoalotofthemwhetherinOdessaorKharkivorKyivorLviv.Theircommitment,their
desiretomovetowardsEuropeaninstitutions,Europeanstandards,theirinterestingettingonwiththeoverduetaskofreforming
theUkrainianstate,includinggrapplingwithsomeofthesamekindsofcorruptionissuesthatyouvemadeprogressontherein
Romania,buildinganattractiveinvestmentclimate,movingthecountryforward.Andwhatsveryclearaftertwoandahalfyearsis
thatwhateverRussiadoesorisabletodointheDonbas,itisnotabletoholdbackUkrainefromitsEuropeanchoice.
Moderator:Thankyou.WeregoingtogobackovertoUkraineandwevegotMarinaSemenenkoonthelinefromtheoutlet
UNN.
Question:WecanseenowthatRussiadoesnt[meet]itscommitments.SomaybeyoushouldsanctionharderforRussia.
AmbassadorBaer:HiMarina.IthinkyourpointisthatRussiahasntfollowedthroughonwhatitscommittedtoandsothe
questionhastobewhatmorecanwedo.Ithinkfirstofall,itsimportanttolookbackandseeoverthelasttwoyearshow
coordinatedandunifiednotonlytheUnitedStatesandtheEU,butotherpartnershavebeenintermsofsendingthemessageto
RussiathatwewanttocreateincentivesforRussiatodowhatitsaysitwilldo.Thatistosay,RussiasaysitwillimplementMinsk,
thatitwillimplementtheMinskAgreements,andalltheincentives,andfrankly,theinterestoftheRussianpeopleisinRussiadoing
whatithassaiditwilldo.Not--obviouslytheinterestofthepeopleofUkraineaswell.
SoIthinkrightnowwereveryfocusedontryingtofindsupport,thedisengagementandthereestablishmentoftheceasefire,and
obviouslytheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStateshavejustrenewedsanctionsrecently.Thesanctionsarenotanythingthat
anyonewants,buttheyarenecessaryinordertocreatetheincentivesfortheKremlintomaketherightdecisionstoleadtode-
escalation,toleadtoestablishmentoftheceasefireandsustainedceasefire,andtomakepossibletherestofthestepsthatarelaid
outinMinsk.
Moderator:Thankyou.Idontseeanyotherquestionsinthequeueatthemoment,soIwillturnbacktoyou,Ambassadors
PyattandBaer,ifthereareanyclosingremarksthatyouwouldliketomake.
AmbassadorBaer:ThanksMireille,andthanksagaintofolksontheline.Ihopefolkshavebeenabletogetthrough.Sorryfor
someofthetechnicalproblemsthismorning.Andthankstoourfriendswhoareorganizingthis.Iknowitsalwaysdifficulttohave
peopleinthreedifferentcitiestryingtomakeoneofthesethingshappen.
IthinkoneofthethingsthatsjustreallyimportantaswegointoAugust,Augusthashistoricallynotalwaysbeenagoodmonth.I
thinkitsreallyimportantthattheeyesoftheinternationalcommunityremainfocusedonthesituationontheground.Therecant
bethisdisjunctbetweenrepeating,betweentheconversationsthatarebeinghad,sometimeswithfrustratingrepetitionaboutthe
needtogetthisdisengagementplan,togettheceasefirerestarted,andthesituationonthegroundwherepeoplearedying.And
oneofthepointswemadeyesterday,theU.S.delegationmadeyesterdayinthePermanentCouncilwas,everytimethegroupthat
isworkingondisengagementinMinsk,everytimetheydecidethattheyllkickitanotherweek,thenthatextraweekcostslives
becausepeoplearedyingeverydayontheground,andnotonlymilitarybutcivilians.Andoneofthethingsthathasbeen
enduringlytruethroughoutthelast2.5years,wheneitherAmbassadorPyattorIhavehadthechancetogoouteastandtalkto
peoplewhohavecomefrombothsidesoftheLineofContact,thethingthatis,thefirstthingthateveryonesaysistheyjustwant
peace.Peopleonbothsidesofthelinejustwantpeace.AndIthinkitsreallyincumbentonallofustocontinuetoputthe
pressureontogetthereinstatementoftheceasefireandtodeliverthepeacethatpeoplewantontheground.
Moderator:Thankyou.Imayhavespokentoosoon.Wedidhavetwomorequestionsjustpopintothequeue.Ifyoure
willingtotakeit,wellseeifwecangettothose.
AmbassadorBaer:Sure.Thatsfine.
AmbassadorPyatt:Danwillhavetocomeupwithhisconclusionagain.[Laughter].
Moderator:ThefirstquestioniscomingfromFredericEgerwhoisafreelancereporterbasedinLatvia.
Question:Hello,AmbassadorBaer.IvebeenconnectingjustrecentlysoIdidntherthebeginningoftheentiretalk.
IjustwantedtoknowifbesidestheMinskAgreementyouhadyourownmaybeplantofind,andyourownideasandsolutionsto
findaquickresolutionofthisconflict.Asyoumentionedjustrightnow,civiliansandcollateraldamagesareoftentheresultof
thesekindofregionalconflicts.Sowouldyou,whendoyouthinkthisconflictcanbeended?Andwhatwillbetheroadmap,the
maybetenpointsthatyouthinkareprioritytoestablishtohaveaceasefirethatstaysinplaceandhavethisoverallconflictresolved
assoonaspossible?
AmbassadorBaer:Frankly,ifIhadaquickfix,Iwouldbeinadifferentjobbynow.
Ithinkoneofthethingsthathasbeenmostheartbreakingformanyofuswhohavebeenworkingontryingtosupportadiplomatic
andapoliticalresolutionoverthelasttwoandahalfyears,hasbeennotonlythefactthatthisentireconflictwasachosenconflict,
wasachosentragedy,atragedythatwasntnecessaryinaworldthatisfilledwithsomanytragediesthatwecantprevent,thisis
onethatwaschosen.
SothatinitialdeepsadnessfromthatfactisfollowedbythefactthatasearlyasSeptemberof2014theMinskProtocol--and
beforethat,frankly,inMayof2014,PresidentPoroshenkospeaceplanwhichwastheprecursortotheMinskProtocol--the
MinskProtocolthatwassignedbybothRussiaandUkraineinSeptemberof2014hasalloftheingredientsofasustainable
peace.Ithasallofthestepsthatarenecessary.Soweveknownwhatneedstobedonefortwoyearsnow.
Theproblemisnotinsolvingsomedifficultpuzzle,itsnot,thisisnotapuzzle.Theproblemispoliticalwill.Andyouknow,my
Ukrainiancolleague,AmbassadorProkopchukhereinVienna,closedhisstatementyesterdaybyrepeatingthewordsofPresident
Poroshenko,whichisthatifMoscowwantedpeaceasmuchasUkrainedid,thisconflictwouldhaveendedlongago.AndIthink
thatremainstruetoday.
Sowehavetorememberthattheformulaisntamystery.Theformulaisinfrontofusandhasbeeninfrontofusfortwoyears.
Thechallengeistogetthatformulaengaged,andobviouslytomakesurethattheKremlinisengagedonactuallymakingpeace
ratherthanfomentingconflict.
AmbassadorPyatt:Again,thisisGeoff.Iwouldjust,toreinforcethepointAmbassadorBaerjustmade,ifyoulookatactions
onthegroundintermsofthesignalsthataresentbyRussiascontinuedsupplyofequipment,fuel,weapons,thatiswhatisdriving
thisconflict.AndthatistheprocessthattheMinskAgreementwasmeanttohalt.
PresidentPoroshenko,asIsaidearlier,hasmadeveryclearthathestandsbythecommitmentshemadeundertheMinsk
Agreements.Infacttherehasbeenquiteabitofprogressinthataspectsofthenegotiationsinthetrilateralcontactgroupin
Minsk.
Wheretheresadlyhasnotbeenasmuchprogressisonthesecuritytrack.Andindeed,themessagewhichAmbassadorsApakan
andSajdikdeliveredveryclearlytoeverybodyhereinViennabeforetheywentoffontheirsummerbreakyesterday,isthatthe
militarysituationonthegroundisasbadasithasbeensincethesummerof2015.
ThereisIthinkonthepartofmanyofus,deepconcernaboutthesesignalsthatratherthanterminatingthisconflict,Russias
actionsarehavingtheeffectofescalatingitonceagain.
Moderator:OurlastquestiontodayiscomingtousfromKristinaButkowhoiswithUkrainianNews.
Question:MygreetingsforbothAmbassadors.
SoyesterdayPresidentPutinsaid[inaudible]Crimeanfederaldistrictanddoesitmeanthatthesanctionswillbeprolongedtothe
southandfederaldistrictwhichitwasaddedto?
AmbassadorPyatt:Christina,thisisGeoff.Letmeanswerthefirsthalfofthatquestion,thenIllaskAmbassadorBaertopick
upsomeofit.
IthinkasregardstheUnitedStatesofAmerica,thisdecisionbytheRussiangovernmenthasnoimpactwhatsoever.Wedonot
recognizetheillegalannexationofCrimea.ThatwillnotchangebasedonwhothegovernorisinSevastopol.Itwillnotchangeon
thebasisofwheretheboundariesofaparticularOblastorterritoryisdrawn.Crimea,quitesimply,ispart,legallypartofUkraine.
ThatisU.S.policy.AndasVicePresidentBidenmadeclearintheRadalastfall,itslikelytoremainU.S.policy.
AmbassadorBaer:Ithinkitsimportantalso,thisisntjustamatterofU.S.policyasAmbassadorPyattsaid.Youknow,the
UNGAresolutionthatwastakenafterRussiasattemptedannexationofCrimeamadeclearthatasamatterofinternationallaw,
CrimeaisUkraine.AndthatwastruebeforeRussiasattempttoannexitanditstrueafterward,anditstruenomatterwhatkinds
ofgymnasticstheKremlingoesthroughinordertoredrawspacesonamap.
Ithinkitsimportantthat,youknow,apointthatwevemadeherewhenRussianrepresentativessaytheywanttohavea
conversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecurity,isthatanyconversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecuritywillhavetostart
withCrimea.ItwillhavetostartwithRussiasattempttoredrawbordersbyforceinthe21s tcentury.
SoIthink,Idontknowwhatsbehindthemovetoincorporate,intheirview,intosomeotherdistrictoftheRussianFederation.
PerhapstheyretryingtohidetheenormouscostthatthisillegalactionhashadfortheRussiantaxpayer.Perhapstheyretryingto
dosomethingelse.Butinanycase,theirredrawingmapsdoesntmakeadifferenceintheeyesofthelaworintheeyesofthevast
majorityoftheinternationalcommunitythatscondemnedthisaction.
Moderator:Thatconcludestodaysconversation,andIwouldliketoextendsincerethankstobothofyou,AmbassadorsPyatt
andBaer.AmbassadorPyatt,Iknowyoudidntgetachancetomakeclosingremarksearlier.Werethereanyotherlastwords
youwantedtogive?
AmbassadorPyatt:IllleaveitwhereDandid,andIagain,IthinktheimportantmessagethatIwouldtakefromconversations
hereinViennathesetwodaysiswecannotbecomplacent.Andbecausethesuccessofourdiplomacyisthevehiclethrough
whichwehopetoendtheterrible,terriblehumansufferingthathashappenedineasternUkraine,wecanttakeAugustoff.
Moderator:Thankyou.Andthankyoutoallofourparticipantswhohavedialedintoday.Wereallyappreciateyoujoiningus.
####
WindowonEurasia
UkrainiansDenounceTrumpsReadinesstoLegitimizePutinsCrimeanAnschluss
thatifhewerepresident,PresidentVladimirPutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.He
thenbackpedaledwhenMr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefornearly
twoyears.
And:S.V.Dale,TrumpPUSHEDforGOPtochangeUkraineposition,nowclaimshedidnt:Thepro-
RussiachangewastheonlyplatformtweaktheTrumpcampcaredabout,sources
say,huggingtonpost.com,7/31
And:Detailed8-pageportraitofTRUMPscampaignmanager:HowPaulMANAFORTwieldedpower
MERMOUD]inthecampaigntopropupViktorYANUKOVYCH:DonaldTrumpandRussia:aweb
thatgrowsmoretangledallthetime,theguardian.com,7/30
era,thedailybest.com,8/111-pagearticle
Inabizarremind-meldthatcouldonlyhappentoday,theWikiLeaksfounderisrefusingtosaywhether
hegotthehackedDNCemailsfromRussia,andTrumpisdefendingRussia.
And:GorgeF.WILL,HowentangledwithRussiaisTrump,washingtonpost.com,7/29op-ed
BABICHasRussiasambassadorto
UKRAINE:http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/07/29_a_9719417.shtml
And:RussiaseconomystillFALLINGafterhittingrockbottomReport[byMoscowsHigher
SchoolofEconomics],themoscowtimes.com,8/1
Subject:UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+
AndreasUmland
TherearemoreandmoresignsthatRussiamaybepreparinganewmilitaryoffensiveinEasternUkraine.
http://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/bojovikiv-vidklikajut-z-vidpustki-do-mistsja-postijnoji-dislokatsiji-is-185521.html
JoshRogin
Manafortliedon@meetthepress.HesaidnoonefromthecampaignworkedontheUkrainepartoftheplatform.Flat
outlie.
AnneApplebaum
Manafortspenthiscareerrepackagingdictators.WhyshouldhestoplyingjustbecausethisistheUS,notUkraine?
CyberShowdown.HowRussianHackingWorks
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-07-31/cyber-showdown?cid=soc-tw-rdr
CNNInternational
JulianAssangewontsaywhetherRussiaisbehindDNChackhttp://cnn.it/2afFntj
Yesterday:
PutinVisitsSlovenia
http://www.rferl.org/content/putin-seek-divide-slovenia-eu-on-sanctions-during-visit-july-30/27889575.html
...
"Russiaisconstantlytryingtofindawayaroundthesanctions,targetingcountriesitthinksaresofter.Theyaretrying
tokillthesanctionswithasoftapproach,"oneofthediplomatssaid.
ThediplomatssaidItaly,Greece,Hungary,Cyprus,Slovenia,Slovakia,andBulgariawereamongRussia'smain
targets...
Atthesmall,Orthodox-stylewoodenchurch,PutinsaidRussiawasreadytohelpstrengthensecurityinEuropeand
theworld...
Putin,AssadDoaChechnyaNumberonAleppo
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-williams2/putin-assad-do-a-chechnya_b_11283940.html?yptr=yahoo
...VladimirPutinsDefenseMinisterhasannouncedthatSyrianforcesloyalPresidentBasharal-Assadwilllet
civiliansleavethroughthreecorridors,andrebelsthroughanother,toescapebesiegeddistrictsofAleppo.Wehave
seenthismoviebefore.
ItisthesametacticRussianusedwhenitsairandgroundforceswerebesiegingGrozny,capitalofthebreakaway
provinceofChechnyabackin1999andearly2000,whiletryingtoflushoutIslamicrebelsfromthecity.This
permittedMoscowtodeclareGroznyafree-firezone,allthebettertobatterthealreadyruinedcityanddeallesswith
themessybusinessofkillingciviliansandfightingdoor-to-doorwithinsurgents...
FrenchCollaboratorsKissMonumenttoRussianInvadersofCrimea(photo)
31.07.16|HalyaCoynash
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1469924085
11FrenchMPs,mostlyfromNicolasSarkozysRepublicanParty,didnotmerelybreachUkrainianlawand
internationalsanctionsthroughtheirvisittoCrimeathisweekend.Theyalsotookpartinashamefulpropaganda
show,denyingflagranthumanrightsviolationsunderRussianoccupationandslanderingCrimeanTatarswhohave
beenabducted,andverylikelymurdered.

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Subject:JulianAssange,DonaldTrump,andVladimirPutin:ATroikaforOurInsaneEra-TheDailyBeast[ED:
FriendsreadthesectiononAssangeandCo.withparticularcare]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,GloriaHorbaty-NewEngland<gphorbaty@hotmail.com>,
mmshevchuk@aol.com,orysia<ukiebuzz@gmail.com>
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/01/julian-assange-donald-trump-and-vladimir-putin-a-troika-
for-our-insane-era.html
JulianAssange,DonaldTrump,andVladimir
Putin:ATroikaforOurInsaneEra
Itwouldalmostbeheart-warmingthatonemedia-obsessedmegalomaniachasfinallyfoundhisequalwereitnot
forthefactthatoneisnowwithin6percentagepointsoftheAmericanpresidencyandtheotherisJulian
Assange.
TheWikiLeaksfounderandeditorinchieftooktoCNNandNBCsMeetthePressthisweekendtoexplain
hisreasonforreleasingtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeshackedemailsandtoanswerquestionsabout
whethertheywereobtainedthroughtheRussianintelligenceservices.Inananswertothefirstquestion,Assange
toldAndersonCooperonFridayeveningthathefeltanobligationtoWikiLeaksreadersandthatthedecision
topublishtheemailsjusthoursbeforeHillaryClintonacceptedherpartysnominationwasindeedopportunistic.
Ifwepublishedafter,youcanjustimaginehowoutragedtheDemocraticvotingpopulationwouldhavebeen,
Assangesaid.Ithadtohavebeenbefore.
Verywell,then.Onthequestionofhowhisorganizationcameintopossessionofthisprivilegedcorrespondence,
AssangetoldCooperthathecantcommentonanythingthatmightreflectonsourcingtorulethingsinorrule
thingsout.SohewontsayifVladimirPutinsdomesticandmilitaryintelligenceagencieshackedtheDNC,as
agrowinglistofU.S.officials,independentcybersecurityanalysts,andnowClintonherselfbelieve,andasis
fartherfrombeingprovenhandedeverythingtheyfoundtoadigitalcollectiveostensiblycommittedtototal
transparency,forthepurposeofinfluencingaforeignelection.
AssangehasmadehiscontemptforClintonexplicit.InarecentinterviewwithBritishITVsRobertPeston,he
saidhebelievedtheformersecretaryofstatewastryingtohavehimindictedforpublishingU.S.diplomatic
cablesandmilitarydocumentsfiveyearsago.HealsochidedClintonforhersupportoftheLibyaintervention
andherrecordasaliberalwarhawk.OntheWikiLeakswebsite,hedescribedherasthecandidatefor
endless,stupidwar,writingthatClintonshouldntbeletnearagunshop,letaloneanarmy.Andshecertainly
shouldnotbecomepresidentoftheUnitedStates.
WhenPestonaskedaboutTrump,however,Assangewascagier,decliningtosaywhetherheprefersthe
Manhattanrealestatedeveloperasthenextcommanderinchief.Trump,hemerelysubmitted,iscompletely
unpredictableagainsttheknownquantitythatisClinton.
TherehasbeenasurfeitofdiscussionanddebateinthepresslatelyaboutTrumpsfinancialandpolitical
closenesstothePutinregime,muchofitcenteredonwhethertheGOPnomineeisaManchuriancandidatea
navel-gazingandpointlessexercise,asMikhailZygar,oneofRussiastopKremlinologists,moreorlessshowed
inPoliticolastweek.TrumpistheidealcandidateforPutinbecauseheis,intheKremlinsopinion,extremely
pragmatic,extremelyunprincipledandextremelycynicalwhichmakeshimeasiertoreachanunderstanding
with.NottomentionthatTrump,unlikeClintonandjustabouttheentirerestoftheWashingtonforeignpolicy
class,hasexplicitlyexpressedadmirationandsympathyforPutin.
TrumpcertainlycampaignsincreasinglyasifheholdsdearerPutinsnationalsecurityintereststhanhedoes
Americas.
Leaveasidethenow-ancientscandalaboutdefendingArticleVoftheAtlanticCharterintheeventthatBaltic
NATOalliesareinvadedbyRussia.Trumphasschizophrenicallycharacterizedapriorinvasionasbothnocause
forbilateraldiscomfortandontologicallyvoid.
AtapressconferenceonJuly27,followinghisownnominatingconvention,Trumpclaimedthathewillbe
lookingintowhethertheUnitedStatesshouldendsanctionsontheRussiaoveritsinvasionofaneighboring
countryandperhapsalsorecognizeCrimeaasRussianFederationterritory,apositionthatnotevenBeijinghas
broughtitselftoespouseowingtoitsownfearsofRussianmeddlingintheFarEast.
InaseparateinterviewjustdayslaterwithABCsGeorgeStephanopoulos,TrumpactuallydeniedthatRussian
soldiersarecurrentlyinUkraine,againstthelogicofhispriorstatementandallevidencetothecontrary
includingPutinsownbelatedadmissionabouttheseizureofCrimeathroughforcetwoyearsago.Moreover,
TrumpvowedthatPutinisnotgonnagointoUkraine,allright.Youcanmarkitdown.
AssangescuriousrelationshipwiththeRussiangovernmentisbotholderandmorefullyventilated,althoughits
worthreviewinginlightofhisreturntotheprime-timespotlightandrefusaltodisclaimthatPutinsspooksgave
himhislatestscoop.
WhereWikiLeaksmayhaveonceadvertiseditselfasacategoricalenemyofstateatrocities,hypocrisies,and
liesandoncedidindeeddoapublicserviceitnowbehavesasifithonorsthisnobleraison
detreselectively.IthadlittleregardforthemassivePanamaPapersdisclosuresofoffshoreasset-keeping,
muchofitbelongingtoKremlininsiders.Ittweeted,withoutevidence,wasfundedbytheU.S.government
throughUSAIDasanattackstoryonPutin.(Assangeiswidelybelievedtopersonallymantheorganizations
socialmediaaccount.)
Assangealsohadashort-livedtalkshowthatisbroadcastontheKremlin-fundedpropagandanetworkRT,
whichhasassiduouslypushedTrumpscandidacy.ThefirstguestwasHezbollahSecretary-GeneralHassan
Nasrallah,aU.S.-designatedterroristwhomanysympatheticTVpresentersinMiddleEasthavenotbeen
grantedaccesstobutRTsproducersmanagedtoreachinhishideawaybunkerinLebanonandbeamhis
chubbyvisageintoNorfolk,England,whereAssangestayedpriortohisarrivalattheEcuadorianembassyin
London,wherehehasbeenholedupsince2012,evadingextraditiontoSwedenonsexualassaultallegations.
NotthattheEcuadoriangovernmentisterriblyindulgentofitsguest.AccordingtothejournalFocusEcuador,
withinmonthsofAssangesasylumbeingissuedbyQuito,thecountrysintelligenceagencySENAINstarted
spyingonhimintheKnightsbridgeembassyinanoperationdubbedHotel.AccordingtoFocusEcuador,In
someinstances,[Assange]requestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidetheembassy,
suggestingtheuseofRussians.FortheSENAINagents,suchchoicewouldhavemeant,amongotherproblems,
thelossofcontroloftheEmbassyitselfleavingtheguestfreeaccesstocontrolandmanagetheflowof
information.Thereportevenassertsthatitwouldhavebeentheequivalentofacoupintheembassy.(Afull
Englishtranslationofthatarticlecanbefoundhere.)
Theperiodicaldidnotfurtherspeculateaboutwhysomeonesoconcernedwithbeingsafefromthelongreachof
governmentspiesandoperativeswasseekingtheprotectionofasecurityserviceknownfor
surveilling,kidnapping,andkillingitsowncitizens,bothathomeandabroad.
AssangehasalsosaiditwashisideaforEdwardSnowdentoseekasylumnotinEcuadorbutinRussia.He
preferredLatinAmerica,theAustraliansaidinAugust2015,butmyadvicewasthatheshouldtakeasylumin
RussiadespitethenegativePRconsequences,becausemyassessmentisthathehadasignificantriskhecould
bekidnappedfromLatinAmericaonCIAorders.Kidnappedorpossiblykilled.
AsproofthatWikiLeaksplayedaroleinorchestratingSnowdensasylumcase,Assangedispatchedoneofthe
organizationsrepresentatives,theBritishjournalistSarahHarrison,toaccompanytheformerNSAspyonhis
journeytoSheremetyevoAirportinMoscow.Harrisonalsoturnedupapressconferencewithhimthere.
ItremainsamysteryhowHarrisonwasgrantedavisatoMoscowwhenheremployerboastsofitsmissionof
stealingstatesecretsforpublicationandwheninvestigativejournalistsonforeignpassportswhodofarlessthan
thataredeniedentrytoRussiaorgetexpelledor,inextremecases,murdered.
WealsohaveWikiLeakssone-timecontentaggregatorinPutin-land,IsraelShamir,whosenamewas
conspicuouslyabsentonCNNuntilImentioneditonSaturday.
AstheorganizationsformerenlisteeJamesBallputintheGuardian,aself-styledRussianpeacecampaigner
withalonghistoryofantisemiticwriting,ShamirwasintroducedtotheteamunderthepseudonymAdam,andit
wasonlyseveralweeksafterhehadleftwithahugecacheofunredacted[U.S.StateDepartment]cables
thatmostofusstartedtofindoutwhohewas.
ThiswasaGooglesearchsworthofwork,really.Shamirsviewsseemtobothanticipateandunderscorethose
ofthealt-rightTrumpsupportwingonsocialmedia.DailyBeastcolumnistMichaelMoynihanablycatalogued
hisfascisminReasonmagazine.ShamirbelievesthatAuschwitzwasnotaNazideathcampbutratheraRed
Cross-overseeninternmentfacilitythatallMuslimsandChristiansareduty-boundtodenythattheShoahever
tookplacethatTheProtocolsoftheEldersofZionisnotadebunkedtsaristfabricationbutactuallyaJewish
manualforworlddominationandthatJewsthemselvesareavirusinhumanform.
Shamirsson,thefabulisthackJohannesWahlstrm,hasalsobeenidentifiedasWikiLeaksspokesmanin
Sweden.
Fatherandsonappeartohavefoundabosswhohashimselffloatedperilouslycloseintothesameorbitof
bigotedlunacy.AccordingtoIanHislop,theeditorofBritainsPrivateEye,Assangeaccusedthatvenerable
satiricalweeklyofbeingpartofaconspiracyledbytheGuardianwhichincludedjournalistDavidLeigh,
[former]editorAlanRusbridgerandJohnKampfnerfromIndexonCensorshipallofwhomareJewish.
(Infact,RusbridgerisnotJewish,butAssangeexplainedthatheneverthelessqualifiesasamemberofthetribe
bybeingthebrother-in-lawofDavidLeigh,anotherGuardianista,whois.)Assangedeniedsayinganysuch
things,buttheGuardianhadalreadylearnedthatitserstwhilemediapartnerhasarathercavalierattitudeabout
protectinginnocentsmentionedinclassifiedtextshedisseminates.AfghanswhoriskedTalibanreprisalsby
workingwithU.S.andNATOforceswereinformants,Assangehassaid,accordingtoLeighandLuke
Harding,aBritishreporterwhowaschuckedoutofRussiaforwritingtruthfullyaboutPutin.So,iftheyget
killed,theyvegotitcomingtothem.Theydeserveit.
WhichmakesitratheradorablethatAssangeinsistedtoBrianStelterthatWikiLeakshada10-yearrecordof
presentingtotallyaccurateinformationtothepublic.Somemembersofthepublichaveevengotadvance
copies.
InDecember2010,theodiousShamirwenttoBelaruswiththebundleofunredactedcablesBallmentioned,all
ofwhichweredraftedinMinsk.AccordingtojournalistKapilKomireddi,ShamirthenmetwithVladimir
Makei,thechiefofstaffofBelarusiandictatorAlexanderLukashenko,andturnedovereverythinghehad,
featuringthenamesofprominentBelarusiandissidentsandoppositionfigureswhohadmetwithU.S.diplomats
overtheyears.ThenShamirhungaroundtomonitorthecountrysforthcomingpresidentialelection,whichwas
asfreeandfairasyoudexpectinacountrywhosesecretpolicearestillknownastheKGB.Lukashenkoof
coursewon,with80percentofthevote,andimprisonedhisclosestrival,myfriendAndreiSannikov,who
wassubsequentlytorturedinjail.
AsKomireddinoted,Shamirshand-deliveryofcablestowhatwasthenanuncomplicatedpro-Putinsatellite
regimewasmoretobolsteracrackdownonpoliticalfreedomafterthefactratherthanfurnishanenemieslist.
SovietBelarus,astate-runnewspaper,Komireddiwrote,beganserializingwhatitclaimedtobeextracts
fromthecablesgiftedtoLukashenkobyShamir.Amongthefiguresexposedasrecipientsofforeigncashwere
Sannikov,thedefeatedoppositionpresidentialcandidateOlegBebenin,Sannikovspresssecretary,whowas
founddeadinsuspiciouscircumstancesmonthsbeforetheelectionsandVladimirNeklyayev,thewriterand
formerpresidentofBelarusPEN,whoalsoranagainstLukashenkoandisnowunderhousearrest.
Shamir,unsurprisingly,hasnothingbutpraiseforPutin.UkrainesEuromaidanrevolutionhecallsaNeocon-led
conspiracyinKievledbyBrownstorm-troopers.Healsojoyouslypresentstheshamreferendumheldin
occupiedCrimeaasalmostunanimouslyinfavorofjoiningRussia.
Thetrue,contradictoryresultofthatstage-managedplebiscitewerepostedtothewebsiteofPutinsown
HumanRightsCouncilbeforethevotetookplace.AndsinceRussianoccupation,Crimeahasbecomeamafia
stateletwhereactivistsarearrestedandtortured,andRussiassatrapyhasbannedtheindigenous
Tatarmajlis(orlegislature)andincarceratedseveralofthatantiqueMuslimcommunitysmostprominentfigures
ontheeveoftheanniversaryofStalins1944deportationandgenocideofCrimeanTatars,noless.
Inoureraofideologicalinsanity,Isupposeweshouldntbesurprisedthatabizarremind-meldhastakenplace
amongsuchatroikaofworld-historicalsolipsists:oneinchargeof11timezonesandmanynuclearweapons
oneconfinedtoaThirdWorldmissionandstillhungryforpressclippingsandonewhothinksthatwarsonly
existdependingonthetimeofdayandhisownparticularmood.NowwefindTrumpsurrogateson
CNNdenyingthatRussiaeverseizedCrimeainthefirstplace,whichexculpatestheKremlinfromany
unpleasantnessvisiteduponthepeninsula,whilePaulManafortsmilesandsaysheknowsnothingaboutRussian
hackersoranymoneytrailleadingfromthecampaignhemanagesbacktoMoscow.Anddontexpecttofind
one,Manafortadds,asTrumpwontbereleasinghistaxreturns,afterall.
From:GlenHoward<howard@jamestown.org>
Subject:Fwd:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad[AnEmergingTrumpDoctrine?]
To:WalterZarycki<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PaulGoble
<paul.goble@gmail.com>
Fyi
From:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad<jordan@gryphon-partners.com>
Date:August1,2016at10:32:42AMEDT
To:<howard@jamestown.org>
Subject:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad
Reply-To:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad<jordan@gryphon-partners.com>
TheEmergingTrumpDoctrine?
ZalmayKhalilzad
July28,2016
TweetShareShare
Recentpresidentialcampaignshavenotfocusedonforeignpolicy.Thisyear
couldbedifferent.Thevolatilityoftheinternationalsystemhasincreasingly
becomeintertwinedwiththedomesticissuesthattendtodominate
presidentialelections.
ThecivilwarwithinIslamhasproducedtheworstinternationalterroristthreat
ofthemodernera:ISIS,orDaesh.Thisconflict,aswellasinstabilityin
Africa,hasalreadypushedmillionsofmigrantsintoEurope,whichhasgiven
risetogreaternationalismandthreatenstheEuropeanproject.Increasing
terroristattacksintheWestincludingtheUnitedStatescallintoquestion
currentcounterterrorismstrategies.
Atthesametime,slowgrowthandeconomicdislocationisproducinga
backlashagainstglobalization.Andagainstthebackdropofeconomic
stagnation,isolationistsentimentsinAmericaarehittinglevelsunseensince
theimmediatepost-Vietnamera.
Mostsignificant,amajorpresidentialcandidateischallengingfundamental
assumptionsaboutU.S.foreignpolicy.Consensusbehindanewgrand
strategydidnotquitecohereaftertheColdWar.Butpresidentialcandidates
since1992,whiledifferingontheirapproachestospecificissues,generally
agreedthattheU.S.-ledpostwararchitectureshouldbepreservedandthat
Americanleadershipwasnecessarytorespondselectivelytoglobalcrises
andtokeepthepeaceamongmajorpowers.
DonaldTrumpisdifferent.Trump'spronouncementsaremorethananattack
onHillaryClintonsworldview.Althoughstatedinprovocativeandunorthodox
ways,hetakesissuewithmanyofthetenetsthathaveguidedU.S.foreign
policyacrossbothRepublicanandDemocraticadministrationssincetheend
oftheColdWar.Whatwearewitnessingisnothinglessthanthebirthofa
TrumpDoctrine,onethatcallsforabreakfromthestatusquoonatleastfive
mainissues:U.S.goals,counteringtheterroristgroupISISandIslamist
extremism,democracypromotion,immigrationandgreat-powerrelations.
U.S.Goals:TrumpssloganAmericaFirstharkensbacktothe
isolationistsofthepre-WorldWarIIera.Trump,however,isnotan
isolationist.Quitethecontrary.Hefavorsalargedefensebudgetandwants
toensurethatAmericaremainstheworldssolemilitaryandeconomic
superpower.Rather,AmericaFirstisTrumpswayofattackingglobalism.
Theterm"globalism"encapsulates,forTrump,themyriadpoliciesthathe
believesareexpendingAmericanresourcesonbehalfofgoalsincidentalto
coreU.S.interests.
ItisintherealmofinternationaleconomicsinparticularthatTrumpis
soundingthealarmofglobalism.U.S.presidentssincetheendofWorldWar
IIhavetakentheviewthateconomicintegrationandfreetradearewin-win
propositionsthatbothfurtherglobalsecurityandbenefitAmericaninterests,
foreignanddomestic.TrumpsAmericaFirstviewismorezero-sumand
nationalistic.HebelievesthattheUnitedStatesnaivelypracticesfreetrade
whileothercountriesgainundueadvantagethroughmercantilistpractices.
HebelievesmanytradeagreementshavedamagedAmericanegatively
affectingU.S.workersandthemiddleclassbyfacilitatingmovementof
manufacturingjobsfromtheUnitedStatestoothercountriessuchasChina
andMexico.Hebelievesthattheseandrelatedpoliciesareproducingslow
economicgrowth,hugedebtandunderminingtheunderpinningsofU.S
economicpower.
TrumpisintentonprioritizingU.S.economicinterests.He,forexample,will
renegotiateNAFTAandabandonthecurrenttextoftheTrans-Pacific
PartnershipinordertoreassertU.S.sovereigntyandprotectandexpand
U.S.manufacturingandemployment.
CounteringISISandIslamicExtremism:Trumpappearstoseethethreat
ofISISandIslamistextremismasurgentandtheprincipalcurrentthreatto
theUnitedStates.HebelievesthatPresidentObamaandcandidateClinton
failtorecognizethenatureoftheproblemthatISISandal-Qaidaare
Islamistterroristgroupsandacceptthatwehavetolivewiththethreatis
unacceptable.HehassaidthataTrumpadministrationwillseektodefeat
ISISquicklyandtoeliminateitsthreattotheUnitedStates,rejectingthe
notionthatweshouldlearntolivewiththethreat.HewantsU.S.alliancesto
focusonthethreatofIslamistterrorismandalsoiswillingtocooperatewith
Russiatodefeatit.HeiswillingtousemoreU.S.forcesandtoadoptmore
aggressivetactics.Heappearstofavorusingalotofforceagainstterrorist
targetsintheMiddleEastbutthengetoutratherthanmaintainasignificant
roleonthegroundforyears.HealsowantstoreviewU.S.immigrationand
visapolicyaswelldomesticlawenforcementpoliciestodealwiththisthreat.
Immigration:Trumpalsodepartsfromtheestablishmentonbothlegaland
illegalimmigration.Hewantstobreakthecycleofmillionsofillegals
becominglegalizedeveryfewdecadesindealsthatincludecommitmentsto
controlillegalimmigrationcommitmentsthatalwaysgounfulfilled.Hisoften
usedimageryofawallexpressesthedeterminationtobreakthatcycleby
whatevermeansarenecessary.
Onlegalimmigration,itappearsthatTrumpwouldliketoreducetheflowand
perhapschangethecriteriaforwhowouldbeadmitted.Hearguesthat
reducingandchangingcriteriaforlegalimmigrationwouldresultin
increasedemploymentforAmericansandlegalresidents,particularlyinthe
lowerendoftheincomespectrum.HisconcernsaboutISISusingflowsof
refugeestoinfiltrateterroristsintotheUnitedStatesledhimtocallfor
suspendingvisasforallMuslimsuntilaprocesswasestablishedforreliable
vetting,whichlaterhemodifiedtotemporarilysuspendingadmissionof
visitorsandimmigrantsfromterror-afflictedcountries.
TrumpappearstofearEuropesproblemsreplicatingthemselvesinthe
UnitedStates.InEurope,thecontinentisinthemidstofapotentially
dangerousparadigmshift.Accordingtosomeestimates,morethan700,000
AfricansarewaitinginLibyatomovetoEurope,withmillionsmorelikelyto
followtheirpathgivenpopulationgrowthandeconomicandpoliticalcriseson
thecontinent.Thiscouldeventuallydwarfthealreadydestabilizingcurrent
andfutureflowsfromconflictsintheMiddleEastandSouthAsia.Thiswould
inevitablyhavehugeimpactsindomesticpoliticsandsecurityinEurope.
Great-PowerRelations:Trumpisenvisioninganeweraofgreat-power
relations.HefavorsalesstruculentapproachtoRussiathanHillaryClinton.
WhileotherpresidentshavepursuedcommonunderstandingswithMoscow,
Trumpenvisionsperhapsamoresweepingparadigmshiftandperhapsa
newgrandbargain:acceptanceofsomekindofasphereofinfluencefor
MoscowinpartsofitsimmediateneighborhoodinexchangeforRussian
cooperationonissuesimportanttotheUnitedStateswithregardstowaron
terror,Syria,andtheAsianbalanceofpower.InhisviewofRussia,hemay
beclosertoPresidentFranklinDelanoRooseveltsattitudetowardtheSoviet
UnionthantheapproachofanysubsequentAmericanpresident.
DuetostrongpressurefromTrumpcampaignofficials,forexample,the
Republicanplatformdroppedanendorsementoftheprovisionoflethal
defensivearmsandassistancetoUkraine.Trumpsrecentstatementthat
calledintoquestionAmericasguaranteetoNATOalliesunderArticleVif
theyarenotmeetingtheirowndefenseobligationscreatedafuror.Trump
madeitclearthathewantstouseitasabargainingtooltoforcealliestopay
fortheirdefense,andhasalsostatedthathewantstopreserveNATO.
WithChina,bycontrast,theTrumpDoctrinewouldpursueamuchharder
line.HehaspromisedtoplaceChinaseconomicpracticesitsalleged
currencymanipulation,lackofintellectual-propertyprotections,and
economicespionageatthecenterofthebilateralrelationship.Economic
pressure,Trumpbelieves,wouldnotonlyaddressU.S.domesticconcerns
suchasthelossofmanufacturingjobsitwouldalsoprovideameansby
whichWashingtoncouldelicitChinesecooperationonsecurityconcerns
suchastheNorthKoreannuclearprogram.
Great-powerrelationsmayalsoshiftinthecontextofU.S.relationswithits
traditionalallies.TrumpishardlythefirstAmericanpoliticalfiguretogripe
aboutourallies'free-riding.WhatdistinguishesTrump,however,isthe
degreetowhichheisconsumedwiththeissue.WhileU.S.presidentshave
tendedtoacceptfreeloadingasapriceworthpayingforanetworkof
alliancesthatunderwritesinternationalsecurityandpreservesU.S.global
leadership,TrumpispreparedtowieldU.S.leveragetoensurethatU.S.
alliancespaytheirfairshare.
DemocracyPromotion:ParticularlysincetheReaganyears,democracy
promotionhasbecomeacentraltenetofU.S.foreignpolicy.Policymakers
havegenerallyreachedtheconclusionthatthespreadofdemocracyand
humanrightsisnotonlyconsistentwithAmericanideals,butalsocontributes
toamorepeacefulworld.WhenmilitaryoperationsinAfghanistanandIraq
wereundertakentooverthrowregimesposingserioussecurityproblems,
bipartisancoalitionssupportedtheinstallationofdemocraticgovernmentsto
reestablishpoliticalauthority.Theconsensuswasthatdemocraticidealshave
universalappealandcantakeholdacrosscountriesandregionswith
differenthistoriesandcultures.
WhenTrumpalludestodemocracypromotion,hedoessomostlyinthe
contextofhissharpattacksonnation-buildingandregimechange.Inhis
RepublicanNationalConventionspeech,forexample,helambastedtheU.S.
decisiontosupporttheoverthrowofdictatorshipsinIraq,Libya,Egyptand
Syria,arguingthattheseeffortsunderminedstabilityandU.S.
counterterrorismpriorities.Trumppledgedunequivocallytoabandonthe
failedpolicyofnationbuildingandregimechange.
Trumpisraisingseriousissuesthatdeservetobedebated.Howprecisely
wouldhepursuehisvisionatapracticallevel,andhowwouldheminimize
thenegative,perhapsunintended,consequencesofhisproposals?
Achievinggreaterburdensharingandfocusingouralliancesoncurrent
threatswouldbepositive.However,thechallengeishowtoachievethisgoal
withoutshakingconfidenceintheUnitedStates.Itisclearthatourcurrent
approachhasnotachievedtherightbalancebothonupdatingthealliances
andonburdensharing.Butthereistheriskthatunderminingconfidencein
theUnitedStatesanditsalliancescouldproducescenariossuchas
renationalizationofsecuritypoliciesbygreatpowers,similartothesituation
beforeWorldWarII,includingthenuclearizationofalliedcountries.
Trumphasexpressedsympathy,ifnotoutrightsupport,fornationalistforces
inEurope.Buthehasnotexplainedhowthesetrendswillredoundtothe
benefitoftheUnitedStates.ItwouldnotserveU.S.interestsforthenext
administrationtoexacerbatexenophobicsentimentsontheContinentthrough
protectionismandincendiaryrhetoricaboutburdensharing.
RevisionistpowerssuchasRussiaandChinawouldbecomemore
aggressiveasU.S.-ledalliancesweakenbecausetheylosecredibility.What
wouldaTrumpadministrationdotominimizesuchthreats?
EvenwithamoreaccommodatingpolicytowardRussia,wehavetoavoid
underminingrelationswithEuropeanalliesandcompromisingthesovereignty
ofstatessuchasUkraineandGeorgia.FarfrombeingapathwaytoU.S.-
Russiacooperation,thereistheriskthattheTrumpDoctrinesstepback
fromUkrainecouldopenthedoortofurtherincursionsbyRussiaagainstits
Europeanneighbors.
GiventhecurrentChineseleaderspushforregionalhegemony,theUnited
StatesneedsabalanceofpowerapproachinAsiansecuritywithJapan,
India,Vietnamandotherregionalpowerplayingabalancingroleandthe
U.S.astheultimatebalancer.HowwouldaTrumpadministrationengineer
thisbalance?
AfterWorldWarII,theUnitedStatesunderwentaparadigmshiftinits
foreignpoliciesremainingdeeplyengagedinunstableregionstomaintain
great-powerpeace.Todevelopthedetailsofthisnewparadigm,theTruman
andEisenhoweradministrationsdevelopedsomeofthemostimportant
internalandexternalinstitutionsoftheColdWarera.Theyalsoengagedin
bipartisandeliberationsinvolvingleadersofboththeexecutiveandlegislative
branches,drawingonexpertisefrominsideandoutsideofgovernment.Such
aprocesstoarriveatabipartisanconsensusisnecessaryregardlessofwho
becomesourPresident.
Trumpscritiqueoffreetradehasitsmerits.Ittakesinordinatetimeand
expenseforAmericanfirmstodocumentandlitigateunfairtradepractices
suchasdumpingunderthecurrentprocess.Theriskisthatbythetimethey
secureajudgment,theirmercantilistcompetitorshaveharmedthem
irreparably.Andtherehasbeennoresponsetotheproblemofcurrency
manipulation.However,Trumpneedstoarticulatehowhewoulddesigna
moreeffectiveenforcementprocessfortradeagreementsandhowhewould
avoidroundsoftit-for-tatretaliationleadingtotradewars.Asmanyhave
said,Americahas5percentoftheworldspopulation,anditsprosperity
dependsonsellingtotheother95percent.
Onimmigration,itiscertainlytimeforareviewofnotonlywhomweallow
intothecountry,butwhoespeciallywewishtoattractthebestandthe
brightestfromaroundtheworldandindividualswhosubscribetoAmericas
corevalues.Anupdatedimmigrationstrategyisrequired,andcontrolofthe
borderandwhocomestothecountryisalsoamust,asisdevelopinga
systemtopolicevisaoverstays.Theglobalpopulationmovementmakesthis
necessary.WeneedtoworktogetherwithourEuropeanalliestoassistthem
indevelopingappropriatestrategiesforthecomingpotentialfloodof
refugeesandthefutureofAfricaasanurgentmatter.
Yet,Trumpssometimesinflammatoryrhetorichasunderminedhisabilityto
workwithallgroupsinAmericansocietyonthisquestion.Asacandidate
and,ifhewins,asapresident,hemustshedthisdivisiveapproach,whichis
counterproductivetofindingtheneededconsensusonawayforward.
Ondemocracypromotion,Ijudgethatthegoalofademocratizedworldasa
long-termobjectiveremainsvalid.Buthowthisgoalispursued,especially
givenrecentsetbacks,isanimportantquestion.Itneedstobedebated
recognizingthattheprocessofbuildinganeffectiveliberaldemocracytakes
timeasitdidinourowncountry.Thepathtoopenpoliticalsystemswill
varyaccordingtothedifferenthistories,cultures,andcircumstancesofour
partners.Itrequiresustoworkpatientlywithleadersandsocietiesof
aspiringdemocraciesandnottoabandonthemwhentheyexperience
setbacks.
Onstrategyandtactics,perhapsadifferentiatedapproachwouldbethe
best.Weshouldemphasizestabilityandconflictresolutioninplacessuchas
theMiddleEastandAfrica.Weshouldworktoconsolidatedemocratization
inotherregionssuchaspartsofEurope,partsofAsiaandtheAmericas,
wheredemocraticinstitutionshavefaltered.Also,itwouldbebeneficialto
reviewwhetherourinstitutionsinvolvedindemocracybuildingareeffective
andmakethenecessaryreforms.
OncounteringIslamistterrorism,notwithstandinghisrefusaltoengagein
nation-buildingandkeeptogetinvolvedinprotractedconflictandpolicing,
TrumphasvowedtodestroyISISwithinamatterofmonths.Ifhisintentisto
liberateISIS-heldareassuchasMosulinIraqandRaqqainSyria,the
questionishowhewilldoso.AgoodoptionistofollowtheAfghanmodel,
embeddingU.S.andcoalitionSpecialForceswithlocalfightersandapplying
significantairpoweragainstISIStargets.However,thequestionofwhat
happenstotheareasliberatedfromISISmustbeanswered.How,without
state-buildingandnewpower-sharingarrangementsinIraqandSyria,would
aTrumpadministrationpreventsegmentsoftheSunniArabpopulationfrom
gravitatingtoyetanother(andperhapsevenmorevicious)terroristgroup?
Afterall,ISISisthesuccessortotheterroristgroupAlQaedainIraq.There
isalsothebroaderquestionofhowtochangefailedpoliciesindealingwith
statesponsorsofterroristandextremistgroupssuchasPakistan.
Evenifweavoidlargestate-andnation-buildingprojectssuchasIraqand
Afghanistan,weneedtopreservethecapacity,acquiredatenormouscost
basedonexperienceinIraqandAfghanistan,toassistinlimitedstate
buildingtohelpfriendlyforcescontrolterritorieswhichhavestrategicvalue.
NotdoingsowouldmeanoverlearningthelessonsofIraqandAfghanistan
andriskcreatingvacuumsinwhichterroristscouldestablishsanctuaries.
Suchamistake,inturn,mightrequirealargerinterventionandoccupationof
suchterritoriestorootoutterroristforces,ashappenedafter9/11.
TheobjectiveofgettingRussiatoworkwithustodefeatISISisdesirable
butthereisnoguaranteethatMoscowwilldoso.Previouseffortsat
achievingU.S.-RussiancooperationbyBushandObamaadministrations
havenotsucceeded.WhatisthebasisforTrumpsconfidencethathewill
succeedifandwhenheistheU.S.president?
ItisimperativethattheTrumpcampaignnotleavethesequestions
unanswered.ThisisbecauseTrumpsfundamentalcritiquehasmerit:
Americaschallengesathomedrivenbyunprecedenteddebt,weak
economicgrowth,racialandclassdivisions,andgrowingeconomic
inequalitydoindeedthreatenU.S.primacyabroad.Hehasraisedthese
issuesinauniquelyprovocativemanner.Hisboldnessmustnowbematched
withwisesolutions.
TrumpspeaksformillionsofAmericanswithhisunfetteredattacksonan
establishmentthathas,infact,madeitsshareoferrors.Forthis,hehas
beenawardedtheRepublicannominationforpresident.Now,justthree
monthsbeforehispossibleelectionasCommanderinChief,hehasour
attention.Itistimeforhimtopivottoamoreseriousdialoguewithmore
detailsonhowtodealwiththeseissues.Regardlessoftheoutcomeofthe
generalelection,theissuesthathehasraisedandthesentimentstowhich
hehaslenthisvoicearenotgoingaway.
ZalmayKhalilzadisaCounseloratCSIS.HewastheUSAmbassadorin
Afghanistan,IraqandtheUN.Heistheauthorofanewbook:TheEnvoy:
FromKabultotheWhiteHouse:MyJourneythroughaTurbulentWorld.St
Martin'sPress.
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Senttime: 07/27/201604:37:51AM
To: BobOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
SentfrommyiPad
From:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
To:RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>
Cc:JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>,RobertHorvath
<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,carolinavendilpallin
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,ElizabethTeague<teagueeliza@aol.com>,"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>"
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,PhilipHanson
<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>,RodericLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,JohnBesemeres
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,KlausSegbers<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>,
SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,DG<davidjeglass@gmail.com>
AmericanPresident
IclaimnoexpertiseinthesemattersandI'mgoingjustontheevidencecontainedinthevariousarticlesreferredtoin
thiscorrespondence,butitseemstomethatJuliaIoffehasgotitrightregardingpossiblefinanciallinksbetweenPutin
andTrump.Theevidenceisverythin-infactnonethatanyRussianpartnersTrumpmighthaveareclosetoPutin.
AsIoffepointsout,Trump'slackofbusinesssuccessinRussiawouldsuggestthelackofaconnection,ratherthan
theotherwayaround.ButbythesoundofithegenerallysenthissontoMoscow,somaybehewasn'teventrying
veryhard.
Noneofthat'stosaythathedoesn'tpresentaviewoftheworldwhichisveryattractivetotheRussians,andthat
they'rehopefulthathe'llwin.Iknownomoreaboutcomputerhackingthanabouthotelfinancing,butthatevidence
doessoundmoreconvincing,andwhywouldn'twebelieveit.
Idon'tknowhowbigallthisRussianstuffisinthecampaign,butonecan'thelphavingthenastyfeelingthatEstonia
beinginthesuburbsofStPetersburgandHilaryisawarmongermightbeattractivepropositionstomorevotersthan
Iliketothinkabout.HasanyoneintheUSmentioned,say,China,theSouthChinaSeas,etc,oraretheymattersof
noimport?
Onaslightlydifferentissue.Inthepresidentialwebsitereportofyesterday'sSecurityCouncilmeeting,Putinissaidto
havereportedontheforthcomingvisitofErdogantoRussiaandPutin'stelephoneconversationswithErdoganand
Netahanyu,allinonesentenceandasiftheywerealllinked.AmIgettingtooKremlinological,oraretheyalllinked?
Stephen
SentfrommyiPad
On27Jul2016,at18:25,RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>wrote:
IdbeveryinterestedincommentsontheJoshMarshallarticle.
Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/thehawks%E2%80%99electionstrategypushing
newcoldwar17113
Julian
To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulianCoopercarolinavendilpallin<teagueeliza@aol.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyneJohnBesemeres
KlausSegbersFUFriedErcRodricBraithwaiteStephenFortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencethe
SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutin
WeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-yes-it-s-
really-a-thing

TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It's
ReallyaThing
ByJOSHMARSHALLPublishedJULY23,
2016,4:15PMEDT

Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrain
abouttheseemingbromancebetweenDonaldTrumpand
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Moreseriously,but
relatedly,manybelieveTrumpisanadmirerandwould-
beemulatorofPutin'sincreasinglyautocraticandilliberal
rule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ata
minimum,Trumpappearstohaveadeepfinancial
dependenceonRussianmoneyfrompersonscloseto
Putin.Andthisismatchedtoaconspicuoussolicitousness
toRussianforeignpolicyinterestswheretheycomeinto
conflictwithUSpolicieswhichgobackdecadesthrough
administrationsofbothparties.Thereisalsosomething
betweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountof
evidencesuggestingPutin-backedfinancialsupportfor
Trumporanon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwomen.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.Ihavelong
beenskepticalofUSeffortstoextendsecurityguarantees
tocountrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir'near
abroad'orextendsuchguaranteesandpoliceRussian
interactionswithnewstateswhichforcenturieswerepart
ofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.Thisisn'ta
matterofindifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedon
mybeliefinseriouslythinkingthroughthepotentialcosts
ofsuchpolicies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,thosecountries
arenowpartofNATO.Securitycommitmentshavebeen
madewhichabsolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemany
otherareaswheresuchcommitmentshavenotbeen
made.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometo
thisquestionorthesepoliciesassomeonelookingfor
confrontationorcoldrelationswithRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussian
moneyflowingintoTrump'scoffersandheis
conspicuouslysolicitousofRussianforeignpolicy
priorities.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,
hisdebtloadhasgrowndramaticallyoverthelastyear,
from$350millionto$630million.Thisisinjustoneyear
whilehisliquidassetshavealsodecreased.Trumphas
beenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyrelianton
moneyfromRussia,mostofwhichhasovertheyears
becomeincreasinglyconcentratedamongoligarchsand
sub-garchsclosetoVladimirPutin.Here'sagood
overviewfromTheWashingtonPost,withonemorselfor
illustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamily
membershavemadenumeroustripsto
Moscowinsearchofbusiness
opportunities,andtheyhavereliedon
Russianinvestorstobuytheirproperties
aroundtheworld.
Russiansmakeupapretty
disproportionatecross-sectionofalotof
ourassets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,told
arealestateconferencein2008,according
toanaccountpostedonthewebsiteof
eTurboNews,atradepublication.Wesee
alotofmoneypouringinfromRussia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentin
Manhattan,oneofTrump'slargestrecentendeavors.The
projectwashitwithaseriesoflawsuitsinresponseto
sometypicallyTrumpianeffortstodefraudinvestorsby
makingfraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancialhealthof
theproject.Emergingoutofthatlitigationhowever
wasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfortheprojectfrom
RussiaandKazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheproject
hasfocusedonthepresenceofatwiceimprisoned
RussianimmigrantwithextensivetiestotheRussian
criminalunderworld.Butthat'snotthemostsalientpart
ofthestory.AstheTimesputit,
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50million
investmentinTrumpSoHoandthree
otherBayrockprojectsbyanIcelandic
firmpreferredbywealthyRussiansin
favorwithPresidentVladimirV.Putin,
accordingtoalawsuitagainstBayrockby
oneofitsformerexecutives.TheIcelandic
company,FLGroup,wasidentifiedina
Bayrockinvestorpresentationasa
strategicpartner,alongwithAlexander
Mashkevich,abillionaireoncechargedin
acorruptioncaseinvolvingfeespaidbya
Belgiancompanyseekingbusinessin
Kazakhstanthatcasewassettledwithno
admissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceived
unexplainedinfusionsofcashfromaccountsin
KazakhstanandRussia."
Readbotharticles:Afterhisbankruptcyandbusiness
failuresroughlyadecadeagoTrumphashadan
increasinglydifficulttimefindingsourcesofcapitalfor
newinvestments.AsInotedabove,Trumphasbeen
blackballedbyallmajorUSbankswiththeexceptionof
Deutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwitha
majorUSpresence.Hehassteadiedandrebuilthis
financialempirewithaheavyrelianceoncapitalfrom
Russia.AtaminimumtheTrumporganizationis
receivinglotsofinvestmentcapitalfrompeoplecloseto
VladimirPutin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhis
connectionstoanddependenceonRussiancapitalaligned
withPutin.Andincaseyou'rekeepingscoreathome:no,
that'snotreassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal
'campaignchair'whonowfunctionsascampaign
managerandtopadvisor.Manafortspentmostofthelast
decadeastopcampaignandcommunicationsadvisorfor
ViktorYanukovych,thepro-RussianUkrainianPrime
MinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledto
theon-goingcrisisandproxywarinUkraine.
YanukovychwasandremainsaclosePutinally.
ManafortisrunningTrump'scampaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEurope
isCarterPage,amanwhoseentireprofessionalcareer
hasrevolvedaroundinvestmentsinRussiaandwhohas
deepandcontinuingfinancialandemploymenttiesto
Gazprom.Ifyou'renotfamiliarwithGazprom,imagine
ifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywererolledup
intoasinglecompanyanditwerepersonallycontrolled
bytheUSPresidentwhouseditasasourceofrevenue
andpatronage.ThatisGazprom'sroleintheRussian
politicalandeconomicsystem.Itisnoexaggerationto
saythatyoucannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromatthe
veryhighlevelwhichPagehasbeenwithoutbeing
whollyinalignmentwithPutin'spolicies.Thosetiesalso
allowPutintoputPageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,Putinhasalignedall
RussianstatecontrolledmediabehindTrump.AsFrank
Foerexplainshere,thisfitsapatternwithhowPutinhas
soughttopropuprightist/nationalistpoliticiansacross
Europe,oftenwithdirectorcovertinfusionsofmoney.In
somecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-backed
policiesinothersitissimplybecausetheysowdiscordin
Westernalignedstates.Ofcourse,Trumphasrepeatedly
praisedPutin,notonlyintheabstractbutoftenforthe
authoritarianpoliciesandpatternsofgovernmentwhich
havemostsouredhisreputationaroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofa
handfulofdevelopmentsthattippedmefromseeingall
thisasjustapartofTrump'slargershadinessto
somethingmorespecificandominousaboutthe
relationshipbetweenPutinandTrump.AsTPM'sTierney
Sneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduring
dynamicsofGOPconventions(there'sacomparable
dynamicontheDemside)ismoremainstreamnominees
battlingconservativeactivistsoverthepartyplatform,
withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardlineideological
boxesandthenomineestryingtosoftenmostorallof
thoseedges.ThisisonethingthatmadetheTrump
conventionverydifferent.TheTrumpCampwastotally
indifferenttotheplatform.Sopartyactivistswereableto
writeoneofthemostconservativeplatformsinhistory.
NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimplydidn't
care.Withonebigexception:Trump'steammobilized
thenominee'straditionalmixofcajolingandstrong-
armingononepoint:changingthepartyplatformon
assistancetoUkraineagainstRussianmilitary
operationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth(and
it'snotworthmuch)Iamquiteskepticalofmost
RepublicanscallforaggressivelyarmingUkrainetoresist
Russianaggression.Butthesingle-mindednessofthis
focusonthisoneissue-inthecontextoftotal
indifferencetoeverythingelseintheplatform-speaks
volumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepay
ofRussiaorPutin.Itcanjustaseasilybeexplainedby
havingmanyofhistopadvisorshavingspentyears
workinginPutin'sorbitandbeingalignedwithhis
thinkingandagenda.Butitiscertainlynocoincidence.
Again,inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetothe
platformandwillingnesstoletpartyactivistswriteitin
anywaytheywant,histeamzeroedinononefairly
obscureplanktoexertmaximumforceanditjust
happenstobetheonemostimportanttoPutininterms
ofUSpolicy.
Addtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicy
statementstracknotonlywithPutin'spositionsbutthose
inwhichPutinismostintenselyinterested.Asidefrom
Ukraine,Trump'ssuggestionthattheUSandthusNATO
mightnotcometothedefenseofNATOmemberstatesin
theBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionisacasein
point.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabout
hackingandallmannerofothermysteries.Butthose
pointsarehighlyspeculative,somevergingon
conspiratorialintheirthinking.Iignorethemhere
becauseI'vewantedtofocusonunimpeachable,
undisputedandpubliclyknownfacts.Thesealonepainta
starkandhighlytroublingpicture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinwere
simplytheCEOofamajorAmericancorporationand
therewasthismuchmoneyflowinginTrump's
direction,combinedwiththismuchsolicitousnessof
Putin'spolicyagenda,itwouldsetoffalarmbellsgalore.
Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutinis
nottheCEOofanAmericancorporation.He'sthe
autocratwhorulesaforeignstate,withanincreasingly
hostileposturetowardstheUnitedStatesanda
substantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakes
involvedinfindingout'what'sgoingon'asTrumpmight
putitarequiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialanda
substantialamountofcircumstantialevidencefora
financialrelationshipbetweenTrumpandPutinoranon-
tacitalliancebetweenthetwomen.Evenifyoudrawno
adverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancialempireisheavily
leveragedandhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusions
fromoligarchsandothersourcesofwealthalignedwith
Putin.That'ssimplynotsomethingthatcanbewavedoff
orignored.
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-putin-
weaponized-wikileaks-influence-election-american-
president/130163/?&utm_term=Editorial%20-
HowPutin
WeaponizedWikileaks
toInfluencethe
Electionofan
AmericanPresident
EvidencesuggeststhataRussianintelligence
groupwasthesourceofthemostrecent
Wikileaksinteldump,whichwasaimedto
influencetheU.S.election
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
Closeyoureyesandimaginethat
ahackinggroupbackedbyRussianPresident
VladimirPutinbrokeintotheemailsystemofa
majorU.S.politicalparty.Thegroupstole
thousandsofsensitivemessagesandthen
publishedthemthroughanobligingthirdparty
inawaythatwasstrategicallytimedtoinfluence
theUnitedStatespresidentialelection.Now
openyoureyes,becausethatswhat
justhappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emails
stolenfromtheDemocraticNational
Committee.Theyreveal,amongother
things,thuggishinfighting,apushbya
topDNCofficialtouseBernieSanders
religiousconvictionsagainsthimintheSouth,
andattemptstostrong-armmediaoutlets.In
otherwords,theyrevealtheWashington
campaignmonsterforwhatitis.
Butleaveasidethepurportedcontentofthe
Wikileaksdatadump(towhichnumerousother
outletshavedevotedconsiderableattention)
andconsiderthesource.Considerableevidence
showsthattheWikileaksdumpwasan
orchestratedactbytheRussiangovernment,
workingthroughproxies,toundermineHillary
ClintonsPresidentialcampaign.
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.The
onlyrationaletoreleasesuchdatafromthe
Russianbulletproofhostwastoempowerone
candidateagainstanother.TheColdWarisalive
andwell,TomKellermann,theCEOof
StrategicCyberVenturestoldDefenseOne.
Subscribe Heresthetimeline:On
Receivedailyemailupdates: June14,cybersecurity
companyCrowdStrike,
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. undercontractwith
theDNC,announcedin
ablogpostthattwo
separateRussian
intelligencegroupshadgainedaccessto
theDNCnetwork.One
group,FANCYBEARorAPT28,gainedaccess
inApril.Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalled
CozyDukeandAPT29)firstbreachedthe
networkinthesummerof2015.
CybersecuritycompanyFireEye
firstdiscoveredAPT29in2014andwasquick
topointoutaclearKremlinconnection.We
suspecttheRussiangovernmentsponsorsthe
groupbecauseoftheorganizationsittargetsand
thedataitsteals.Additionally,APT29appeared
toceaseoperationsonRussianholidays,and
theirworkhoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3
timezone,whichcontainscitiessuchas
MoscowandSt.Petersburg,theywroteintheir
reportonthegroup.OtherU.S.officialshave
saidthatthegrouplookslikeithassponsorship
fromtheRussiangovernmentdueinlargepart
tothelevelofsophisticationbehindthe
groupsattacks.
Itsthe TheColdWarisaliveandwell
samegroup TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
thathit
theState
Department,theWhiteHouse,andthe
civilianemailoftheJointChiefsofStaff.The
groupsmodusoperandi(aspearphishingattack
thatuploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstoolon
thetargetscomputer)iswellknowntocyber-
Inhisblogposton
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsof
experiencewithbothoftheseactorsattempting
totargetourcustomersinthepastandknow
themwell.Infact,ourteamconsidersthem
someofthebestadversariesoutofallthe
numerousnation-state,criminaland
hacktivist/terroristgroupsweencounterona
dailybasis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,
operationalsecuritysecondtononeandthe
extensiveusageofliving-off-the-land
techniquesenablesthemtoeasilybypassmany
securitysolutionstheyencounter.
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimself
Guccifer2.0claimedtobetheculpritbehind
thebreachandreleasedkeydocumentstoback
uptheclaim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
Related:WhattheJointChiefsEmail
HackTellsUsAbouttheDNCBreach
Related:TheUkrainianBlackoutand
theFutureofWar
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,
writing:theseclaimsdonothingtolessenour
findingsrelatingtotheRussiangovernments
involvement,portionsofwhichwehave
documentedforthepublicandthegreater
securitycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependent
analysisandreachedthesameconclusion.The
groupFidelisundertooktheirown
investigationandfoundCrowdstriketo
becorrect.
ATwitteruser
named@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthe
metadataonthedocsthatGuccifer2.0provided
inhisblogpostandfoundliteral
Russiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodin
atArsTechnica.Giventheevidence
combinedwitheverythingelse,Ithinkitsa
strongattributiontooneoftheRussian
intelligenceagencies,
toMotherboard.
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-
BicchieraiactuallyconversedwithGuccifer2.0
overTwitter.Thehacker,whoclaimedtobe
Romanian,answeredquestionsinshort
sentencesthatwerefilledwithmistakes
accordingtoseveralRomaniannativespeakers,
Bicchierifound.
AlargebodyofevidencesuggeststhatGuccifer
2.0isasmokescreenthattheactualculprits
employedtohidetheirinvolvementin
thebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussian
informationandinfluenceoperations.Russian
propagandistshavebeencaughthiringactorsto
portrayvictimsofmanufacturedatrocitiesor
crimesfornewsreports(aswasthecasewhen
ViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohavebeen
attackedbySyrianrefugeesinGermanyfor
RussiasZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-
scenenewsreporting(asshowninaleaked
videoinwhichreporterMariaKatasonovais
revealedtobeinadarkenedroomwith
explosionsoundsplayinginthebackground
ratherthanonabattlefieldinDonetskwhena
lightisswitchedonduringtherecording),
notesaRANDreportfromearlierinJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatform
servedtolegitimizetheinformationdump,
whichalsocontainsalargeamountof
personalinformationrelatedtodemocratic
donorssuchassocialsecurityandcreditcard
numbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaksdidnt
performathoroughanalysisofthedocuments
beforetheyreleasedthem,orsimplydidntcare.
Itsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthat
informationsecurityresearcherBruceSchneier
callsorganizationaldoxingandthat
LawfaresNicholasWeavercallsthe
weaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priorto
theDNCincident,wastheJune2015the
publicationofseveralsetsofNSArecords
relatedtogovernmentintelligencecollection
targets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.The
dataitselfwasnotremarkable,butitdid
harmU.S.relationsandmayhave
compromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaks
doesntseemtocarethattheyarebeingusedas
aweaponbyunknownparties,insteadcalling
themselvesalibraryofmasseducation.
Buttherestofusshould,Weaverwrites.
Theevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthat
Putinusedtogreateffectlastweek.
Senttime: 07/26/201612:14:01PM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25][GH]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon..[VRT]SnowdentoUS:Stop
Subject:
PickingonRU..[AM]AnneA:RUhasthepoliticaltechnologytostabilizedemogovts&isusingitintheStatesSteveB:Notsur
Sent:Monday,July25,20169:50PM
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25][GH]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon..[VRT]SnowdentoUS:
StopPickingonRU..[AM]AnneA:RUhasthepoliticaltechnologytostabilizedemogovts&isusingitintheStatesSteveB:Not
surp...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon&MORE
Date:Mon,Jul25,2016at4:11PM
Subject:RE:Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon
To:++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Abitofastretchbutinteresting.MollyMcKewisaformerpaidconsultanttoMishaSaakashvili.
PutinsSinisterRoleintheFailedTurkish
Coup
Analysis:PullingErdoganfromWesternOrbitisaRussianObjective
SHARE
TWEET
EMAIL
TurkishsoldierssecuretheareaassupportersofTurkey'sPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganprotestinIstanbul'sTaksimsquare/AP
BY:MollyMcKew
July25,20164:59am
OnegroupthatstandstogainsignificantlyfromErdoganspurgesarethelocalproponentsofEurasianistthinking.Inthedaysleading
uptotheattemptedcoup,AlexandrDugintheRussianideologuewhoisthefatherofthemodernEurasianMovementandafavorite
KremlinharbingerofconflictandannexationwassittinginAnkara,alternativelyvisitingwithleadingTurkishEurasianistsandcloseallies
ofPresidentErdogan.
Dugin,asGeorgiaandUkrainehavelearned,israrelynearaconflictbychance,oftenprovidingboththeideologicalfoundationsfor
modernRussianexpansionismandakindofadvanceteamforlocalmobilization.
Asearlyas2004,U.S.officialswarnedthatPutinaimedtodetachTurkeyfromtheWest.Couldtherapidrealignmentunderwayafterthe
coupindicatethatRussiashybridwartocaptureTurkeyintoitsgeopoliticalorbitisyieldingresults?
ATVcoup?
IntheaftermathofthefailedcoupinTurkey,morethan6,000membersofthemilitaryhavebeenarrestedmorethan50,000education
personnel,police,judges,andcivilservantshavebeenfiredandmillionsofacademicshavebeenbannedfromleavingthecountryuntil
potentialconnectionstothecoupplotareevaluated.Thespeedwithwhichtheenemieslistswereproduced,andwithwhichthearrests
wereconducted,hasledtoquestionsfromEuropeanofficialsaboutthegovernmentspreparationsinadvanceofthecoup.
ButtheconspiracytheoriesspinningoutofrecenteventsbothmaskandexposeadeepgeopoliticalshiftunderwayinTurkeythatcould
haveprofoundconsequencesforNATOandAmericanalliesintheregion.
StoriesarenowcirculatingthatRussianofficialswarnedtheirTurkishcounterpartsofthependingcoup,andthatIranianofficialswerein
contactwiththeirTurkishcounterpartsthroughoutthenight.BothstoriesaddtothesensethatsomeelementsinsideTurkeyaimedto
capitalizeuponthecouptowidenthedistancebetweenTurkeyanditsWesternalliesandcommitments.
Therapidpurgeofopponentshasamplifiedquestionsaboutthebafflingcoupattempt.Turkeysmilitaryhasstagedfoursuccessfulcoups
andthisiterationdeviatedfromthatplaybookinwaysthatdefyeasyexplanation.
IstanbulsbridgesovertheBosporuswereblockaded.BlackopsforcesappearedatthehotelinMarmariswherePresidentErdoganwas
supposedlystaying,droppingdownthesideofthebuildingonrope-lines.FighterjetsbrokethesoundbarrieroverIstanbulandAnkara,
andtanksdrovethroughthestreets,projectingtheappearanceofbroadmilitaryinvolvement.Cadetsfrommilitaryacademieswereenlisted
asmanpower.AninternationalTVstationwasseizedbutcontinuedtobroadcastthedramaticconflict.Communicationswerebroadly
uninterruptedthroughoutthecountry.SeveralbroadcasttextmessageswereevensentfromErdoganandhisalliestoTurkishcellphone
users,callingthemtothestreetstodefendtheirnation.
Theseactionsrequiredpre-planningbutmadelittletacticalsenseaseriesofpowerfulvisualsprojectingthatacoupwasunderway,and
providingrallypointsformediaanddemonstrators,butwhichheldlittlevalueinsecuringstrategicassets,institutions,andnational
politicalleaders.
Underscrutiny,itsnothardtoseewhysomeobserversbelievethecoupwasstaged.Inapollconductedafterthecoup,onethirdof
TurkssaidtheybelievedErdoganwasbehindthecoup.
Therise,fall,andreturnofTurkeysEurasianists
PresidentPutinhasbeenusingDuginasanemissarytotheTurkishelitesinceDuginaccompaniedPutinonanofficialvisitin2004.
HismissionwastobuildRussiasnetworkofinfluencetopullTurkeyawayfromtheWest.Thiswasbasedonhiscoreideathatanew
Eurasianempirewillbeconstructedonthefundamentalprincipleofthecommonenemy:therejectionofAtlanticism,strategiccontrol
[over]theUSA,andtherefusaltoallowliberalvaluestodominateus.
DuginsconceptofaTurkic-SlavicalliancefoundsupportersinTurkishnationalistcircles,especiallythoseidentifyingasKemalists,who
sawEurasianismasanalternativetoboththeEuropeanUnionandIslamism.
ThiswasespeciallytrueforsomeseniorTurkishmilitaryofficers.ManyofthisgroupwhichadvocatedforclosertieswithRussiaand
calledforTurkeytoleaveNATOwereimprisonedandconvictedafterbeingaccusedofparticipatingintheErgenekonterrorist
organization,anothersupposedgroupofcoupplottersopposedtoErdogan.InApril,TurkeysSupremeCourtofAppealsoverturnedthe
convictions,sayingtheorganizationhadneverexisted.
Addingtothelayersofcomplexity,GulenistsinthejudiciaryhadsupposedlybeeninstrumentalinconvictingtheErgenekongroup,acting
outanothersceneinTurkeyslongsecurlarists/militaryvs.Islamistsdrama.TheErgenekontrialsbecamepartofthebreak-upbetween
ErdoganandGulen.Gulenwentintoexile,andtheErgenekongroupanditsEurasianistbeliefshavebeenenjoyingaperiodof
rehabilitationwithErdoganandtheAKPrulingparty.
Theirrevivalmayreflectadeepershiftingeopoliticsthathaslargelybeenoverlooked,runningparalleltoErdogansownshiftawayfrom
EuropeanstructuresfollowingtheTaksimprotestsin2013.
Russianpressure
DuginspresenceinAnkarathroughoutthecoupandhislongtermactivitiesareareminderofthemulti-year,up-and-downRussianeffort
tobringTurkeyintotheEurasianorbitmoredownthanupinrecentyears.
ThewarinSyriaandtheriseofISIShavechangedthedynamicsoftheregion.AsPutinbackedandarmedAssad,Erdoganstood
byObamaincallingforAssadtoleavepower.TurkeyandRussiaendedgenerallywarmrelationsandbegantotradebarbsatonepoint
PutinevencalledforregimechangeinTurkey.ThesetensionscametoaheadafterTurkeyshotdownaRussianfighterjetthatviolatedits
airspaceinNovember2015.
Inthemonthsthatfollowed,RussiarampedupvariousformsofpressureonTurkeyanditspresident.Russiastalleda$15billionpipeline
deal,bannedRussiantouristsfromtravelingtoTurkey,andleviedothereconomicmeasures.InarmingKurdishmilitantsinSyria
andbuildingtieswithIraqiKurdistan,RussiaplayedupTurkishfearsofKurdishseparatism.TheRussianandTurkishmilitariessevered
ties.
RussianwarshipssailalmostdailythroughtheBosporus,sometimesbrandishingarms,carryingmenandmaterielfromSevastopolto
Tartus.FSBagentsaresuspectedofconductingaseriesofassassinationsofenemiesoftheRussianstateinTurkey.Bothmeasures
servetoremindoftheincreasingRussianreachbeyondtheBlackSea.Russiahasalsodeployedso-calledanti-access/areadenial
capabilitiesintheeasternMediterraneanthatcouldeffectivelyshutdownTurkishairspace.
RussianstatemediahasfrequentlycitedtherehabilitatedTurkishEurasianiststobuildthestoryofadeepriftbetweenErdoganandthe
militaryeliteonSyriapolicyandtiestoRussia.Russia,especiallythroughagentslikeDugin,activelysupportsgroupscallingfora
strategicrealignmentofTurkishinterests,buildingpoliticalpressureagainstErdoganinternally.
InMay,TurkishPrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluresigned,signaling,inretrospect,anendtotheperiodofdealmakingwiththeEUon
refugeesandTurkishaccession.BythetimeErdoganofferedanapologytoRussiaattheendofJuneforthedowningofthejet,Russian
pressurehadclearlyyieldedresults.ThebombingoftheIstanbulairportbyRussian-speakingmembersofISISthenextdayreinforced
thebeliefthatTurkeyneededanewapproachtoitsSyriapolicy.
DuginhadlongreferredtoDavutogluaspartofapro-Americanconspiracy(backed,ofcourse,byGulen)tokeepTurkeyfrommoving
towardRussia.Hisfriends,theformermilitaryleadersoftheErgenekongroup,arenowpartofDoguPerinceksHomelandParty,which
lastweekclaimedtheyhadbeensentbybusinessmenclosetoErdogantoimproverelationswithRussiaandre-establishtieswithSyrian
PresidentBasharal-Assad.
TheeventsofthelastweekhavelikelylimitedErdogansoptionswithhisWesternpartners.WhilePutinhassaidlittlefollowingthecoup
attempt,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrywasquicktowarnthatTurkeysmembershipinNATOmightbeatstakeiftheyweakentheir
democracy.
Russianshadowoverthecoup
KerryspentthenightofthecouplockedawaywithRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov,hammeringoutthedetailsofasecretnew
agreementtocooperateonSyria.Duringthesediscussions,KerrycalledObamatheWhiteHousethenreleasedastatementsayingthey
supportedthedemocraticallyelectedgovernmentofTurkey.Fewothersdiduntilafterthecouphadfailed.
Dugin,meanwhile,metlessthantwohoursbeforethecoupwithcloseErdoganallyandMayorofAnkaraMelihGokcek,whoexplained
toDuginthatTurkeywasdividedbetweentwogroups:patriotsandGulenists/Americanagents.HesaidtheCIAhadusedtheGulen
movementtoputTurkeyatloggerheadswithRussia.ThepilotswhohadshotdowntheRussianplane,Gokceksaid,werealsoGulenist
agentsfollowingAmericanorders.
Aspartingwords,Gokcekoffered:Weunderestimatedthepoweroftheparallelstate,whichGulensfollowersandAmericanscreated
insideTurkey.Itwasourmistake.Butwearegoingtomakeitrightnow.ThefirststepwillbeanewrapprochementwithMoscow.
Afterthecoup,Gokcekannouncedthatthepilotshadbeendetained.
DuginnowsaystheU.S.-backedcoupwasaHailMarypasstokeepTurkeyfromrealigningwithRussia.
ButRussianstatemediahasalsoreleasedastorysayingErdoganwaspreparedforthecoupbecauseRussiainterceptedvialistening
stationsinnorthernSyriathatapparentlymonitorTurkishmilitarytransmissionsintelligenceonthecoupandnotifiedTurkeyinadvance.
TheTurkishmilitaryhadearliersaidtheyreceivedintelonthepotentialcoup,whichmayhaveforcedtheplotterstoinitiatetheirplan
earlierthanintended.
ARealignmenttoRussia
ThenationalisticoutpouringinsupportofErdogan(whichbecameprofoundlyanti-AmericaninnaturewhenaccusationsofGulenist
involvementweremade)andErdoganssubsequentdecisiontoenactdeeppurgesthroughoutnationalstructures(whichwillhave
consequenceswithWesternpartners)bothservetocreatedistancebetweenTurkeyandtheWest.
ThepresenceofcertainRussianactorsaroundthemarginsoftheTurkishcoupdoeslittletoansweranyquestionsaboutwhatreally
happenedonJuly15.ButitisclearthattheactivemeasurestakenagainstTurkeybyRussiainthemilitary,political,andeconomicrealms
areyieldingresults.AsanotherKremlinideologue,SergeyKaraganov,saidinaninterviewjustdaysbeforethecoupattempt:Intheface
ofourproblemswithTurkey,wehavepursuedaclear,hardpoliticallinewithsuccess.
CoercingTurkeyawayfromtheWesthasbeenagoalpursuedbyDuginsince1997.And,asLeninoncesaid:Inpoliticsitisnotso
importantwhodirectlyadvocatesparticularviews.Whatisimportantiswhostandstogainfromtheseviews,proposals,measures.
Inthissense,RussiahadagoodweekwithTurkey.Erdogansmilitarypurgewhichhasclearedmorethanaquarterofgeneralsfromthe
ranksmaymeanEurasianistsfillemptyslots.PutinandErdoganhaveannouncedtheywillmeetinearlyAugust.
Duginsmediaonslaughthascontinued.HeiscallingforaRussian-TurkishalliancetoexpeltheUnitedStatesandNATOfromtheBlack
Sea,andtoensureaTurkishdeparturefromNATO.HesaysKerrysuggestedkickingTurkeyoutofNATOtopre-emptTurkeys
announcementthatitwillwithdraw.Whilethereisnoclearwaytoremoveamemberfromtheallianceforbadbehavior,quittingonly
takesaletter.
IfRussiahadwantedtodesignacampaignofreflexivecontrolusingdisinformationtocoerceanadversaryintovoluntarilyselecting
actionsthatwillbeadvantageoustoRussiaagainstTurkey,itcouldnthavedoneitanybetter.Thismaysoundlikethestuffof
conspiracies,buttheideathatRussiaknowshowtousefictionforpoliticalgainishardlyfar-fetched.EstoniasForeignMinisterrecently
describedhowRussiaissimulatingawarovertheBalticseainordertoshowawaronstateTV.Ifamade-for-TVwarwhynota
made-for-TVcoup?
ThereareprofoundconsequencestoignoringRussiasmany-frontedhybridwaragainsttheWest,andfromfailingtoacknowledgethat
Turkeyis,andhasbeen,asmuchatargetofthiswarasUkraineortheBalticstates.Aslongastheseexplanations,whichareamply
documentedwithcircumstantialandfrequentlydirectevidence,aredismissedasconspiracytheories,leaderscanduckresponsibilityfor
addressingthecrisis.
From:VRT
Subject:Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProvingRussiaHackedDNC[ED:Now,hereisacriticallyobjective
voiceyoutell'em,Ed.]
Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProving
RussiaHackedDNC
[Image:Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProvingRussiaHackedDNC]
EdwardSnowden(PhotocreditAFPTV/AFP/GettyImages)
ByMarkSwanson|Monday,25Jul201601:05PM
InfamouswhistleblowerEdwardSnowdentooktoTwitteronMondaytoweighinonthehackingandleakingof
20,000DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,theWashingtonExaminerreported.
TheformerNSAcontractor,currentlylivinginRussiatoavoidextraditiontotheU.S.overintelligencesecrets
heleakedyearsago,saidtheU.S.governmentcanandshouldshowproofthatRussiaisresponsiblefortheDNC
leaks.
Basically,nowthatU.S.Intelligencesurveillancesecretsaren'tsecretanymore,Snowdensaysthegovernment
shouldrevealwho'sbehindtheleak,ifandwhenitknowsforsure.
Special:ThisStrange60-SecondTrickReversesDiabetes?
PresidentObamahasresistedcallsfromhisnationalsecurityteamstodoso,theExaminerreports.
TheemaildumponFridayhasembarrassedDemocratsafterexposingleadership'sdealingswithBernie
SandersandledtotheswiftresignationannouncementofDNCChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultz.
U.S.cybersecurityfirmshavefoundthesameRussianintelligencehackerstheydiscoveredlodgedinsensitive
governmentagencyserversbeforeareresponsiblefortheDNChack.
RelatedStories:
NYTimesHintsPutinMayHaveLeakedDNCEmailstoAidTrump
FBIInvestigatesDNCHackingClintonCampaignBlamesRussia
2016Newsmax.Allrightsreserved.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Edward-Snowden-DNC-Leaks-
Russia/2016/07/25/id/740336/#ixzz4FSi3H73Q
From:<amaleckyj@gmail.com>
Subject:AnneApplebaum:RussiadoesitsbesttoelectPresidentTrump[ED:AA'smostinterestingpointmaybea
remarkaboutthepoliticaltechnologythattheRussianshaveusedto'destabilizedemocraticgovernmentsinEE']
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/anne-applebaum-russia-does-its-best-to-elect-president-trump
Whateverone'spoliticalchoicesarevisavistheUScandidatesforthePresidency,thefollowingisthemostimportant
pointAnneAmakesinthearticle:
HowwouldtheRussiansknowthattheemails,ratherthantheidentityofthehackers,wouldcapturethepublic
imagination?Becausethiskindoftrickhasbeenplayedbefore.Inseveralpost-communistcountriesPoland,
Hungary,Slovakia,Ukrainesecretlytapedconversationshavebeenusedtodestabilize
democraticgovernmentsand,insomecases,coincidentallyorotherwise,toreplacethemwith
populistoranti-EuropeangovernmentsmoretoRussiasliking.
From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Subject:Re:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPI
Bulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenuke
arsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristolpieceonD/T]Putin'sParty??[HU]RUHackedDNCE-
mails[GoodquestionfromHU:IftheRussianshackedarelativelysecureDNCsite,whatdoyouthinktheydidto
Hilary'sunsecuredserver?]
alltootypical
StephenBlank
traininblank@aol.com

Sponsoredby

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Monday,July25

Today,welookatMoscowsmeddlingintheUnitedStates...

1 DONALDANDVLAD:TrumpandPutinmightnotbeholdinghands,

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ForeignPolicyMagazine
editorspicks@foreignpolicy.com

Thisemailwassenttowaz2102@columbia.edubyfp@foreignpolicy.com.

From:jm200p<jm200p@mac.com>
Subject:fyi[ED:TOSunIntendsTitleasaSpoof.butitain'tsofunnyanymore]
To:
Senttime: 07/26/201612:14:01PM
FW:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25][GH]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon..[VRT]SnowdentoUS:Stop
Subject:
PickingonRU..[AM]AnneA:RUhasthepoliticaltechnologytostabilizedemogovts&isusingitintheStatesSteveB:Notsur
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25][GH]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon..[VRT]SnowdentoUS:
StopPickingonRU..[AM]AnneA:RUhasthepoliticaltechnologytostabilizedemogovts&isusingitintheStatesSteveB:Not
surp...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Subject:[LATENIGHTRUN7-25]Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon&MORE
Subject:RE:Russia'sRoleintheFailedTurkishCoup?WashingtonFreeBeacon
To:++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Abitofastretchbutinteresting.MollyMcKewisaformerpaidconsultanttoMishaSaakashvili.
PutinsSinisterRoleintheFailedTurkish
Coup
Analysis:PullingErdoganfromWesternOrbitisaRussianObjective
SHARE
TWEET
EMAIL
TurkishsoldierssecuretheareaassupportersofTurkey'sPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganprotestinIstanbul'sTaksimsquare/AP
BY:MollyMcKew
July25,20164:59am
OnegroupthatstandstogainsignificantlyfromErdoganspurgesarethelocalproponentsofEurasianistthinking.Inthedaysleading
uptotheattemptedcoup,AlexandrDugintheRussianideologuewhoisthefatherofthemodernEurasianMovementandafavorite
KremlinharbingerofconflictandannexationwassittinginAnkara,alternativelyvisitingwithleadingTurkishEurasianistsandcloseallies
ofPresidentErdogan.
Dugin,asGeorgiaandUkrainehavelearned,israrelynearaconflictbychance,oftenprovidingboththeideologicalfoundationsfor
modernRussianexpansionismandakindofadvanceteamforlocalmobilization.
Asearlyas2004,U.S.officialswarnedthatPutinaimedtodetachTurkeyfromtheWest.Couldtherapidrealignmentunderwayafterthe
coupindicatethatRussiashybridwartocaptureTurkeyintoitsgeopoliticalorbitisyieldingresults?
ATVcoup?
IntheaftermathofthefailedcoupinTurkey,morethan6,000membersofthemilitaryhavebeenarrestedmorethan50,000education
personnel,police,judges,andcivilservantshavebeenfiredandmillionsofacademicshavebeenbannedfromleavingthecountryuntil
potentialconnectionstothecoupplotareevaluated.Thespeedwithwhichtheenemieslistswereproduced,andwithwhichthearrests
wereconducted,hasledtoquestionsfromEuropeanofficialsaboutthegovernmentspreparationsinadvanceofthecoup.
ButtheconspiracytheoriesspinningoutofrecenteventsbothmaskandexposeadeepgeopoliticalshiftunderwayinTurkeythatcould
haveprofoundconsequencesforNATOandAmericanalliesintheregion.
StoriesarenowcirculatingthatRussianofficialswarnedtheirTurkishcounterpartsofthependingcoup,andthatIranianofficialswerein
contactwiththeirTurkishcounterpartsthroughoutthenight.BothstoriesaddtothesensethatsomeelementsinsideTurkeyaimedto
capitalizeuponthecouptowidenthedistancebetweenTurkeyanditsWesternalliesandcommitments.
Therapidpurgeofopponentshasamplifiedquestionsaboutthebafflingcoupattempt.Turkeysmilitaryhasstagedfoursuccessfulcoups
andthisiterationdeviatedfromthatplaybookinwaysthatdefyeasyexplanation.
IstanbulsbridgesovertheBosporuswereblockaded.BlackopsforcesappearedatthehotelinMarmariswherePresidentErdoganwas
supposedlystaying,droppingdownthesideofthebuildingonrope-lines.FighterjetsbrokethesoundbarrieroverIstanbulandAnkara,
andtanksdrovethroughthestreets,projectingtheappearanceofbroadmilitaryinvolvement.Cadetsfrommilitaryacademieswereenlisted
asmanpower.AninternationalTVstationwasseizedbutcontinuedtobroadcastthedramaticconflict.Communicationswerebroadly
uninterruptedthroughoutthecountry.SeveralbroadcasttextmessageswereevensentfromErdoganandhisalliestoTurkishcellphone
users,callingthemtothestreetstodefendtheirnation.
Theseactionsrequiredpre-planningbutmadelittletacticalsenseaseriesofpowerfulvisualsprojectingthatacoupwasunderway,and
providingrallypointsformediaanddemonstrators,butwhichheldlittlevalueinsecuringstrategicassets,institutions,andnational
politicalleaders.
Underscrutiny,itsnothardtoseewhysomeobserversbelievethecoupwasstaged.Inapollconductedafterthecoup,onethirdof
TurkssaidtheybelievedErdoganwasbehindthecoup.
Therise,fall,andreturnofTurkeysEurasianists
PresidentPutinhasbeenusingDuginasanemissarytotheTurkishelitesinceDuginaccompaniedPutinonanofficialvisitin2004.
HismissionwastobuildRussiasnetworkofinfluencetopullTurkeyawayfromtheWest.Thiswasbasedonhiscoreideathatanew
Eurasianempirewillbeconstructedonthefundamentalprincipleofthecommonenemy:therejectionofAtlanticism,strategiccontrol
[over]theUSA,andtherefusaltoallowliberalvaluestodominateus.
DuginsconceptofaTurkic-SlavicalliancefoundsupportersinTurkishnationalistcircles,especiallythoseidentifyingasKemalists,who
sawEurasianismasanalternativetoboththeEuropeanUnionandIslamism.
ThiswasespeciallytrueforsomeseniorTurkishmilitaryofficers.ManyofthisgroupwhichadvocatedforclosertieswithRussiaand
calledforTurkeytoleaveNATOwereimprisonedandconvictedafterbeingaccusedofparticipatingintheErgenekonterrorist
organization,anothersupposedgroupofcoupplottersopposedtoErdogan.InApril,TurkeysSupremeCourtofAppealsoverturnedthe
convictions,sayingtheorganizationhadneverexisted.
Addingtothelayersofcomplexity,GulenistsinthejudiciaryhadsupposedlybeeninstrumentalinconvictingtheErgenekongroup,acting
outanothersceneinTurkeyslongsecurlarists/militaryvs.Islamistsdrama.TheErgenekontrialsbecamepartofthebreak-upbetween
ErdoganandGulen.Gulenwentintoexile,andtheErgenekongroupanditsEurasianistbeliefshavebeenenjoyingaperiodof
rehabilitationwithErdoganandtheAKPrulingparty.
Theirrevivalmayreflectadeepershiftingeopoliticsthathaslargelybeenoverlooked,runningparalleltoErdogansownshiftawayfrom
EuropeanstructuresfollowingtheTaksimprotestsin2013.
Russianpressure
DuginspresenceinAnkarathroughoutthecoupandhislongtermactivitiesareareminderofthemulti-year,up-and-downRussianeffort
tobringTurkeyintotheEurasianorbitmoredownthanupinrecentyears.
ThewarinSyriaandtheriseofISIShavechangedthedynamicsoftheregion.AsPutinbackedandarmedAssad,Erdoganstood
byObamaincallingforAssadtoleavepower.TurkeyandRussiaendedgenerallywarmrelationsandbegantotradebarbsatonepoint
PutinevencalledforregimechangeinTurkey.ThesetensionscametoaheadafterTurkeyshotdownaRussianfighterjetthatviolatedits
airspaceinNovember2015.
Inthemonthsthatfollowed,RussiarampedupvariousformsofpressureonTurkeyanditspresident.Russiastalleda$15billionpipeline
deal,bannedRussiantouristsfromtravelingtoTurkey,andleviedothereconomicmeasures.InarmingKurdishmilitantsinSyria
andbuildingtieswithIraqiKurdistan,RussiaplayedupTurkishfearsofKurdishseparatism.TheRussianandTurkishmilitariessevered
ties.
RussianwarshipssailalmostdailythroughtheBosporus,sometimesbrandishingarms,carryingmenandmaterielfromSevastopolto
Tartus.FSBagentsaresuspectedofconductingaseriesofassassinationsofenemiesoftheRussianstateinTurkey.Bothmeasures
servetoremindoftheincreasingRussianreachbeyondtheBlackSea.Russiahasalsodeployedso-calledanti-access/areadenial
capabilitiesintheeasternMediterraneanthatcouldeffectivelyshutdownTurkishairspace.
RussianstatemediahasfrequentlycitedtherehabilitatedTurkishEurasianiststobuildthestoryofadeepriftbetweenErdoganandthe
militaryeliteonSyriapolicyandtiestoRussia.Russia,especiallythroughagentslikeDugin,activelysupportsgroupscallingfora
strategicrealignmentofTurkishinterests,buildingpoliticalpressureagainstErdoganinternally.
InMay,TurkishPrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluresigned,signaling,inretrospect,anendtotheperiodofdealmakingwiththeEUon
refugeesandTurkishaccession.BythetimeErdoganofferedanapologytoRussiaattheendofJuneforthedowningofthejet,Russian
pressurehadclearlyyieldedresults.ThebombingoftheIstanbulairportbyRussian-speakingmembersofISISthenextdayreinforced
thebeliefthatTurkeyneededanewapproachtoitsSyriapolicy.
DuginhadlongreferredtoDavutogluaspartofapro-Americanconspiracy(backed,ofcourse,byGulen)tokeepTurkeyfrommoving
towardRussia.Hisfriends,theformermilitaryleadersoftheErgenekongroup,arenowpartofDoguPerinceksHomelandParty,which
lastweekclaimedtheyhadbeensentbybusinessmenclosetoErdogantoimproverelationswithRussiaandre-establishtieswithSyrian
PresidentBasharal-Assad.
TheeventsofthelastweekhavelikelylimitedErdogansoptionswithhisWesternpartners.WhilePutinhassaidlittlefollowingthecoup
attempt,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrywasquicktowarnthatTurkeysmembershipinNATOmightbeatstakeiftheyweakentheir
democracy.
Russianshadowoverthecoup
KerryspentthenightofthecouplockedawaywithRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrov,hammeringoutthedetailsofasecretnew
agreementtocooperateonSyria.Duringthesediscussions,KerrycalledObamatheWhiteHousethenreleasedastatementsayingthey
supportedthedemocraticallyelectedgovernmentofTurkey.Fewothersdiduntilafterthecouphadfailed.
Dugin,meanwhile,metlessthantwohoursbeforethecoupwithcloseErdoganallyandMayorofAnkaraMelihGokcek,whoexplained
toDuginthatTurkeywasdividedbetweentwogroups:patriotsandGulenists/Americanagents.HesaidtheCIAhadusedtheGulen
movementtoputTurkeyatloggerheadswithRussia.ThepilotswhohadshotdowntheRussianplane,Gokceksaid,werealsoGulenist
agentsfollowingAmericanorders.
Aspartingwords,Gokcekoffered:Weunderestimatedthepoweroftheparallelstate,whichGulensfollowersandAmericanscreated
insideTurkey.Itwasourmistake.Butwearegoingtomakeitrightnow.ThefirststepwillbeanewrapprochementwithMoscow.
Afterthecoup,Gokcekannouncedthatthepilotshadbeendetained.
DuginnowsaystheU.S.-backedcoupwasaHailMarypasstokeepTurkeyfromrealigningwithRussia.
ButRussianstatemediahasalsoreleasedastorysayingErdoganwaspreparedforthecoupbecauseRussiainterceptedvialistening
stationsinnorthernSyriathatapparentlymonitorTurkishmilitarytransmissionsintelligenceonthecoupandnotifiedTurkeyinadvance.
TheTurkishmilitaryhadearliersaidtheyreceivedintelonthepotentialcoup,whichmayhaveforcedtheplotterstoinitiatetheirplan
earlierthanintended.
ARealignmenttoRussia
ThenationalisticoutpouringinsupportofErdogan(whichbecameprofoundlyanti-AmericaninnaturewhenaccusationsofGulenist
involvementweremade)andErdoganssubsequentdecisiontoenactdeeppurgesthroughoutnationalstructures(whichwillhave
consequenceswithWesternpartners)bothservetocreatedistancebetweenTurkeyandtheWest.
ThepresenceofcertainRussianactorsaroundthemarginsoftheTurkishcoupdoeslittletoansweranyquestionsaboutwhatreally
happenedonJuly15.ButitisclearthattheactivemeasurestakenagainstTurkeybyRussiainthemilitary,political,andeconomicrealms
areyieldingresults.AsanotherKremlinideologue,SergeyKaraganov,saidinaninterviewjustdaysbeforethecoupattempt:Intheface
ofourproblemswithTurkey,wehavepursuedaclear,hardpoliticallinewithsuccess.
CoercingTurkeyawayfromtheWesthasbeenagoalpursuedbyDuginsince1997.And,asLeninoncesaid:Inpoliticsitisnotso
importantwhodirectlyadvocatesparticularviews.Whatisimportantiswhostandstogainfromtheseviews,proposals,measures.
Inthissense,RussiahadagoodweekwithTurkey.Erdogansmilitarypurgewhichhasclearedmorethanaquarterofgeneralsfromthe
ranksmaymeanEurasianistsfillemptyslots.PutinandErdoganhaveannouncedtheywillmeetinearlyAugust.
Duginsmediaonslaughthascontinued.HeiscallingforaRussian-TurkishalliancetoexpeltheUnitedStatesandNATOfromtheBlack
Sea,andtoensureaTurkishdeparturefromNATO.HesaysKerrysuggestedkickingTurkeyoutofNATOtopre-emptTurkeys
announcementthatitwillwithdraw.Whilethereisnoclearwaytoremoveamemberfromtheallianceforbadbehavior,quittingonly
takesaletter.
IfRussiahadwantedtodesignacampaignofreflexivecontrolusingdisinformationtocoerceanadversaryintovoluntarilyselecting
actionsthatwillbeadvantageoustoRussiaagainstTurkey,itcouldnthavedoneitanybetter.Thismaysoundlikethestuffof
conspiracies,buttheideathatRussiaknowshowtousefictionforpoliticalgainishardlyfar-fetched.EstoniasForeignMinisterrecently
describedhowRussiaissimulatingawarovertheBalticseainordertoshowawaronstateTV.Ifamade-for-TVwarwhynota
made-for-TVcoup?
ThereareprofoundconsequencestoignoringRussiasmany-frontedhybridwaragainsttheWest,andfromfailingtoacknowledgethat
Turkeyis,andhasbeen,asmuchatargetofthiswarasUkraineortheBalticstates.Aslongastheseexplanations,whichareamply
documentedwithcircumstantialandfrequentlydirectevidence,aredismissedasconspiracytheories,leaderscanduckresponsibilityfor
addressingthecrisis.
From:VRT
Subject:Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProvingRussiaHackedDNC[ED:Now,hereisacriticallyobjective
voiceyoutell'em,Ed.]
Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProving
RussiaHackedDNC
[Image:Snowden:USShouldCiteEvidenceProvingRussiaHackedDNC]
EdwardSnowden(PhotocreditAFPTV/AFP/GettyImages)
ByMarkSwanson|Monday,25Jul201601:05PM
InfamouswhistleblowerEdwardSnowdentooktoTwitteronMondaytoweighinonthehackingandleakingof
20,000DemocraticNationalCommitteeemails,theWashingtonExaminerreported.
TheformerNSAcontractor,currentlylivinginRussiatoavoidextraditiontotheU.S.overintelligencesecrets
heleakedyearsago,saidtheU.S.governmentcanandshouldshowproofthatRussiaisresponsiblefortheDNC
leaks.
Basically,nowthatU.S.Intelligencesurveillancesecretsaren'tsecretanymore,Snowdensaysthegovernment
shouldrevealwho'sbehindtheleak,ifandwhenitknowsforsure.
Special:ThisStrange60-SecondTrickReversesDiabetes?
PresidentObamahasresistedcallsfromhisnationalsecurityteamstodoso,theExaminerreports.
TheemaildumponFridayhasembarrassedDemocratsafterexposingleadership'sdealingswithBernie
SandersandledtotheswiftresignationannouncementofDNCChairwomanDebbieWassermanSchultz.
U.S.cybersecurityfirmshavefoundthesameRussianintelligencehackerstheydiscoveredlodgedinsensitive
governmentagencyserversbeforeareresponsiblefortheDNChack.
RelatedStories:
NYTimesHintsPutinMayHaveLeakedDNCEmailstoAidTrump
FBIInvestigatesDNCHackingClintonCampaignBlamesRussia
2016Newsmax.Allrightsreserved.
http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/Edward-Snowden-DNC-Leaks-
Russia/2016/07/25/id/740336/#ixzz4FSi3H73Q
From:<amaleckyj@gmail.com>
Subject:AnneApplebaum:RussiadoesitsbesttoelectPresidentTrump[ED:AA'smostinterestingpointmaybea
remarkaboutthepoliticaltechnologythattheRussianshaveusedto'destabilizedemocraticgovernmentsinEE']
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/anne-applebaum-russia-does-its-best-to-elect-president-trump
Whateverone'spoliticalchoicesarevisavistheUScandidatesforthePresidency,thefollowingisthemostimportant
pointAnneAmakesinthearticle:
HowwouldtheRussiansknowthattheemails,ratherthantheidentityofthehackers,wouldcapturethepublic
imagination?Becausethiskindoftrickhasbeenplayedbefore.Inseveralpost-communistcountriesPoland,
Hungary,Slovakia,Ukrainesecretlytapedconversationshavebeenusedtodestabilize
democraticgovernmentsand,insomecases,coincidentallyorotherwise,toreplacethemwith
populistoranti-EuropeangovernmentsmoretoRussiasliking.
From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Subject:Re:[TRIPLEPLAYMISBEHAVIOR..OB-AD,TheDon,TheHilVladtheBadHavingaBall]Fwd:FPI
Bulletin:WhiteHousePlansNuclearPolicyReversals[OHBOY!!AsRUgetsmoreaggressive,weshrinkthenuke
arsenal?].[Yur/S-CA/ConservativesendsKristolpieceonD/T]Putin'sParty??[HU]RUHackedDNCE-
mails[GoodquestionfromHU:IftheRussianshackedarelativelysecureDNCsite,whatdoyouthinktheydidto
Hilary'sunsecuredserver?]
alltootypical
StephenBlank
traininblank@aol.com

Sponsoredby

EDITORS'PICKS

Monday,July25

Today,welookatMoscowsmeddlingintheUnitedStates...

1 DONALDANDVLAD:TrumpandPutinmightnotbeholdinghands,

buttheyreclearlyfriendswithbenefits**********Readmore

4 MOSCOWSMEDDLING:FromUkrainetoGermany,Russiabeen

interferinginelectionsforyears.*********Readmore

ForeignPolicyMagazine
editorspicks@foreignpolicy.com

Thisemailwassenttowaz2102@columbia.edubyfp@foreignpolicy.com.

From:jm200p<jm200p@mac.com>
Subject:fyi[ED:TOSunIntendsTitleasaSpoof.butitain'tsofunnyanymore]
To:
Senttime: 07/26/201608:57:59AM
Subject: FW:MichaelCROWLEYandJuliaIOFFE,"WhyPutinHATESHillary,"http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,July26,20168:58AM
Subject:MichaelCROWLEYandJuliaIOFFE,"WhyPutinHATESHillary,"http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
BehindtheallegationsofaRussianhackoftheDNCistheKremlinleadersFURYatClintonfor
challengingthefairnessofRussianelections[in2011].
And:StevenLeeMyersandNeilMacFarquhar,ToDemocrats,EmailHACKsuggestsTRUMPhasnew
supporter:PUTIN,nytimes.com,7/26
NowthequestionhasemergedintheUnitedStateselectioncampaignwhetherMr.Putinhasopted
directlyorcovertlytothrowRussiassupportbehindMr.Trump.Theconclusionbycybersecurity
expertsthatRussianintelligenceagenciesbreachedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandreleased
thousandsofemailsontheeveofthepartysconventionpromptedaccusationsfromDemocratsand
someRepublicansthatMr.TrumpwasakindofSiberiancandidate,bolsteredfromabroadto
underminethenation.
And:MichaelMcFAUL,Mr.Trump,NATOisanALLIANCE,notaprotectionracket,oped,
Theframingofalliancerelationshipsasprotectionracketcontractsmissesthestrategicvalueofallies
totheUnitedStates.
And:ThomasRID[cyberattackspecialistatKingsCollege,London],AllsignsPOINTtoRussiabeing
behindtheDNChack,[thishighlydetailedarticleisrecommendedbymathematicianAndrei
PIONTKOVSKII],http://motherboard.vice.com/read/allsignspointtorussiabeingbehindthednc
hack
Themetadataintheleakeddocumentsareperhapsmostrevealing:onedumpeddocumentwas
modifiedusingRussianlanguagesettingsThemetadatashowthattheRussianoperatorsapparently
editedsomedocuments,andinsomecasescreatednewdocumentsNotreactingpoliticallytothe
DNChackissettingadangerousprecedent.Aforeignagency,exploitingWikileaksandacutthroat
mediamarketplace,appearstobecarefullyplanningandtimingahighstakespoliticalcampaigninthe
UnitedStatesthatcouldescalatenextweek,nextfall,ornexttime.Trump,ironically,isrightthe
systemisactuallyrigged[byRussia].
And:PutintoSHUNOlympicopeningceremony[toavoidbeingshunned?],themsocowtimes.com,
7/25
And:RussianOlympicTeamcouldbereducedto40athletes[areductioninsizeof90%],
themoscowtimes.com,7/26
And:TheFSBiscarryingoutsearchesatthedirectoroftheRussianFederalCustomsService:
http://graniru.org/Politics/Russia/FSB/m.253352.html
Senttime: 07/26/201612:12:41PM
FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-26.WELCOMETOTHEWORLDOF'UNRESTRICTEDWARFARE'][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:WP(2),
Subject: RFE/RL[AllItemsAre'MustNote'].[JDDD]"WhyPutinHatesHillary"&7morestories.[VRT]IntelExperts:Putin'sGoalisto
DiscreditAmerican
Sent:Tuesday,July26,201611:11AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS7-26.WELCOMETOTHEWORLDOF'UNRESTRICTEDWARFARE'][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:WP(2),
RFE/RL[AllItemsAre'MustNote'].[JDDD]"WhyPutinHatesHillary"&7morestories.[VRT]IntelExperts:Putin'sGoalisto
DiscreditAmerican...
Subject:Ukraine:WP(2),RFE/RL[ED:ALLITEMSARE"MUSTNOTE"]
TheWashingtonPost/AP
ControversialreligiousprocessionbarredfromenteringKiev
ByAssociatedPress
July26at8:46AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/controversial-religious-procession-barred-from-entering-
kiev/2016/07/26/31860f78-5317-11e6-b652-315ae5d4d4dd_story.html
MOSCOWUkrainesinteriorministeronTuesdaybenttothepressureofnationalistsandorderedpolicetobaramajor
religiousprocessionfromenteringthecapital,Kiev,afterpolicefoundammunitionplantedalongtheplannedroute.
UkrainiannationalistshavepreviouslythreatenedtoattacktheprocessionifitentersKiev.
ThousandshavebeenmarchingfrommonasteriesinthecountryseastandwestsincethebeginningofJulyintheHolyCross
processionledbytheUkrainianbranchoftheRussianOrthodoxChurch.ThetwomarchesweretomeetupinKievlaterthis
weektomarktheadoptionofChristianitybywhatisnowRussiaandUkraineinthe10thcentury.
OrthodoxChristiansinUkraineadheretotheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchandtheUkrainianbranchoftheRussianOrthodox
Church.

PolicedecidedtostoptheprocessionfromcomingintoKievbecauseofsecurityconcerns,InteriorMinisterArsenAvakovsaid.
Mockminesandactuallivegrenadesplantedalongtheplannedroutegiveusnoreasontodoubtthattheriskofthreatsand
provocationsisreal,Avakovsaid.Securityofthecitizensismoreimportantthanreligiousrites.
UkrainiannationalistsonMondayblockedtheprocessionfromenteringKiev,callingthemarchersagentsofMoscowandpelting
thebelieverswhowerecarryingOrthodoxiconsandcrosseswitheggs.Thenationalistsclaimedthattheprocessionisaruseto
sowdiscordinUkraine.
TheprocessionwasreportedtohavetakenadetourbutstillheadedontoKiev.
RelationsbetweenRussiaandUkraine,whichsharelinguisticandculturaltiesdatingbackhundredsofyears,souredafterRussia
threwitssupportbehindrebelseparatistsfightinggovernmenttroopsineasternUkraine.Thisconflicthasclaimedmorethan9,400
livesanddisplacedmorethan1millionpeoplesinceitbeganin2014.
TheWashingtonPost
PutinssuspectedmeddlinginaU.S.electionwouldbeadisturbingfirst
ByEditorialBoard
ThePost'sView
July25at9:14PM(LeadeditorialinJuly26printedition)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/putins-suspected-meddling-in-a-us-election-would-be-a-disturbing-
first/2016/07/25/2e84c374-5280-11e6-bbf5-957ad17b4385_story.html
CREDITFORtheinternecinefurorthatdisruptedtheDemocraticPartyontheeveofitsconventionshouldgotoVladimirPutin.
AsThePosthasreported,cybersecurityexpertssayRussianintelligenceoperativeswerelikelyresponsibleforthehackingofthe
DemocraticNationalCommitteescomputernetwork,aswellasforleakingtotheMoscow-friendlyWikiLeakswebsitesome
20,000emails.ThetroveappearedonlineFriday,justintimetocreatediscordbetweensupportersofHillaryClintonandBernie
SandersastheyheadedtoPhiladelphia.Tonoonessurprise,theemailsshowedthatDNCstaffersopposedtheattemptofthe
socialistMr.Sanderstotakeovertheparty.ChairDebbieWassermanSchultzwasforcedtoannounceherresignation,andas
RussialikelyintendedMs.Clintonscampaigntookahit.
Mr.PutinsregimehastriedtointerveneintheinternalpoliticsofnumerousEuropeancountries,fromUkraineandMoldovato
ItalyandFrance.ButtheevidentattempttomeddleinaU.S.presidentialelectionisafirst.Thatmayreflectthereckless
aggressivenessMr.Putinhasembracedinforeignaffairssincereturningtothepresidencyin2012.ItlikelyalsorevealsMoscows
judgmentthatitstandstoreapageopoliticalwindfallifDonaldTrumpiselectedpresident.

ThepotentialbenefitsMr.TrumpofferstoMr.Putinhavebeenclearlyandrepeatedlyspelledoutbythecandidatehimself.
RussiasmostcherishedgoalistoweakenordestroyNATOMr.Trumphascalledtheallianceobsolete.Mr.Putindreamsof
reestablishingdominionoverthepiecesoftheSovietUnionMr.TrumphassaidthathemightnotdefendformerSovietrepublics
Latvia,EstoniaandLithuaniaifRussiainvaded,despitetheirNATOmembership.Mr.PutinwantstheUnitedStatestotreatRussia
asanequalsuperpowerwithitsownacknowledgedsphereofinfluenceMr.TrumphasrepeatedlypraisedMr.Putinand
promisedtoworkwithhim.
Thispro-KremlintiltisunprecedentedintheRepublicanPartyandwouldrepresentaradicalanddangerousshiftinU.S.policy.
Whethertherearenon-politicalreasonsforitisafairquestion.Mr.TrumpisknowntohavesoughtbusinessrepeatedlyinRussia,
andhissonDonaldJr.hassaidthatRussiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-sectionofalotofourassets.Because
Mr.Trumpwillnotreleasehistaxreturnsorbusinessrecords,thefullextentofhisfinancialinterestsinRussiaremainsunclear.But
atleastthreeofMr.TrumpstopadvisershaveprofitedfrombusinessandpoliticalconnectionsinRussia,includingcampaign
managerPaulManafort,whoworkedfortheformerpro-PutinpresidentofUkraineaswellasseveralRussianoligarchs.
OneofthefewchangesintheGOPplatformpushedbytheTrumpcampaignwastheweakeningoflanguagecallingforsupportfor
Ukrainescurrentdemocraticgovernment,whichreplacedthemanMr.ManafortrepresentedandwhichMr.Putinisattempting
todestroy.TheDNCemailsappearedonWikiLeaksthenextweek.
SomepoliticalanalystsdoubtthatKGB-styletrickswillultimatelyswayvotesinawide-openU.S.electionespeciallyas
Moscowhasbarelybotheredtodisguiseitsauthorship.YetthefactthatMr.Putinistryingisremarkableanddisturbingasisthe
motivationMr.Trumphasgivenhimtomeddle.
RFE/RL
http://www.rferl.org/content/daily-vertical-deadly-donbas-forgotten-war/27880993.html
July26,2016
TheDailyVertical:Ukraine'sForgottenWar(Transcript)
BrianWhitmore
Don'tlooknowbutit'sbeenonehellofadeadlymonthintheDonbas.
Iknowit'seasytomissgivenalltheexcitementelsewhere,butaccordingtostatisticsreleasedbytheUnitedNationslastweek,27
Ukrainiansoldierswerekilledand123woundedinthefirstpartofJulyalone.
Yesterday,threeUkrainianservicemenwerekilledandthreemorewerewounded.
Sixmorewerekilledoverone24-hourperiodthispastweekend.
Thereportsofthisslowdripofdeathhavebeencomingineverysingleday,eachlookingliketheonebeforeit.
Threekilledand16woundedoneday.Onekilledandfivewoundedanother.Threekilledand13woundedonanother.Andseven
killedand14woundedonyetanother.
Itbecomesablur.
Butwhenyouadditallup,youneedtogobacknearlyayeartofindanothermonthasdeadlyasJuly--andthemonthisn'teven
overyet.
Butdespiteallthedeathanddestruction,almostnobodyisnoticing.
WATCH:Today'sDailyVertical
ThewarintheDonbashasbecometheforgottenwar.
Ithasn'tbecomeafrozenconflict,likeinAbkhaziaandSouthOssetia,asmanyhadpredicted.
Instead,it'sasimmeringconflictthathasslippedbelowtheworld'sradar.
It'safesteringsoreontheUkrainianbodypolitic,onethatissappingthecountry'senergy,wearingdownitsresolve,andkillingits
citizens.
Andinthissense,theforgottenwarintheDonbasisservingthepurposethatRussiaintendedittoserve.
KeeptellingmewhatyouthinkonThePowerVertical'sTwitterfeedandonourFacebookpage.
Subject:MichaelCROWLEYandJuliaIOFFE,"WhyPutinHATESHillary,"
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
MichaelCROWLEYandJuliaIOFFE,"WhyPutinHATESHillary,"
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/clinton-putin-226153
BehindtheallegationsofaRussianhackoftheDNCistheKremlinleadersFURYatClintonfor
challengingthefairnessofRussianelections[in2011].
And:StevenLeeMyersandNeilMacFarquhar,ToDemocrats,EmailHACKsuggestsTRUMPhasnew
supporter:PUTIN,nytimes.com,7/26
NowthequestionhasemergedintheUnitedStateselectioncampaignwhetherMr.Putinhasopted
directlyorcovertlytothrowRussiassupportbehindMr.Trump.Theconclusionbycybersecurity
expertsthatRussianintelligenceagenciesbreachedtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandreleased
thousandsofemailsontheeveofthepartysconventionpromptedaccusationsfromDemocratsand
someRepublicansthatMr.TrumpwasakindofSiberiancandidate,bolsteredfromabroadto
underminethenation.
And:MichaelMcFAUL,Mr.Trump,NATOisanALLIANCE,notaprotectionracket,op-ed,
Theframingofalliancerelationshipsasprotection-racketcontractsmissesthestrategicvalueofalliesto
theUnitedStates.
And:ThomasRID[cyber-attackspecialistatKingsCollege,London],AllsignsPOINTtoRussia
beingbehindtheDNChack,[thishighlydetailedarticleisrecommendedbymathematicianAndrei
PIONTKOVSKII],http://motherboard.vice.com/read/all-signs-point-to-russia-being-behind-the-dnc-hack
Themetadataintheleakeddocumentsareperhapsmostrevealing:onedumpeddocumentwasmodified
usingRussianlanguagesettingsThemetadatashowthattheRussianoperatorsapparentlyeditedsome
documents,andinsomecasescreatednewdocumentsNotreactingpoliticallytotheDNChackis
settingadangerousprecedent.Aforeignagency,exploitingWikileaksandacutthroatmediamarketplace,
appearstobecarefullyplanningandtimingahigh-stakespoliticalcampaignintheUnitedStatesthat
couldescalatenextweek,nextfall,ornexttime.Trump,ironically,isrightthesystemisactuallyrigged
[byRussia].
And:PutintoSHUNOlympicopeningceremony[toavoidbeingshunned?],themsocowtimes.com,
7/25
And:RussianOlympicTeamcouldbereducedto40athletes[areductioninsizeof
90%],themoscowtimes.com,7/26
And:TheFSBiscarryingoutsearchesatthedirectoroftheRussianFederalCustoms
Service:http://graniru.org/Politics/Russia/FSB/m.253352.html

From:VRT
Subject:IntelExperts:Putin'sGoalistoDiscreditAmericanPoliticalSystem
Interestingpiece,buttheuseofCarnegie'sRumerandWeissasbackgroundisadamper[EDADD:Andtheconstantrefrain
thatPutinissimplydefendinghimself/pushingbackagainstperceivedWesternaggression/expansionis"gettingreally
old"]
IntelExperts:Putin'sGoalistoDiscredit
AmericanPoliticalSystem
Tuesday,26Jul201609:26AM
IftheRussiangovernmentisbehindthetheftandreleaseofembarrassingemailsfromtheDemocraticParty,asU.S.officialshave
suggested,itmayreflectlessaloveofDonaldTrumporenmityforHillaryClintonthanadesiretodiscredittheU.S.political
system.
AU.S.officialwhoistakingpartintheinvestigationsaidthatintelligencecollectedonthehackingofDemocraticNational
Committee(DNC)emailsreleasedbyWikileaksonFriday"indicatesbeyondareasonabledoubtthatitoriginatedinRussia."
ThetimingontheeveofClinton'sformalnominationthisweekfortheNov.8presidentialelectionhasraisedquestionsabout
whetherRussiamayhavebeentryingtohurther,tohelpTrump,herRepublicanrival,ortofanpopulistsentimentagainst
establishmentpoliticiansasithassoughttodoacrossEuropeinrecentyears.
"CertainlyRussiahasbecomeamasteratmanipulatinginformationfortheirstrategicgoals:Witnesstheinformationbubblethey
havecreatedfortheirthreateningbehaviorintheCrimea,theUkraineandelsewhere,"saidformerCIAandNationalSecurity
AgencydirectorMichaelHayden."Asteplikethis,however,wouldbereallyuppingtheirgame."
TheemailsshowedthatDNCofficialsexploredwaystoundermineU.S.SenatorBernieSanders'presidentialcampaignagainst
ClintonandraisedquestionsaboutwhetherSanders,whoisJewish,wasreallyanatheist.
ThedisclosuresconfirmedSanders'frequentchargethatthepartyplayedfavoritesagainsthimandcloudedapartyconvention
Clintonhopedwouldsignalunity,notdivision.
PUTIN'SCOUNTERPUNCH?
TwoU.S.intelligenceofficials,speakingonconditionofanonymity,saidthehackcouldbepartofabroadercampaignbyRussian
PresidentVladimirPutintopushbackagainstwhathethinksisaneffortbytheEuropeanUnionandNATO,amilitaryallianceof
EuropeanandNorthAmericandemocracies,toencircleandweakenRussia.
Oneoftheofficialscalledthefear"ahangover"fromPutin'sserviceintheKGB,theSovietintelligenceagency.
"Timeandagain,we'reseeingRussiapushbackatwhatPutinconsidersRussia'smortalenemies,"saidtheotherofficial."He's
beenactivelyattackingtheU.S.-backedrebelsinSyria,buzzingshipsandplanesintheBlackSeaandtheBaltic,nottomention
invadingUkraineandseizingCrimea.Thisfitsthepattern."
DespiteClinton'sshort-livedattemptassecretaryofstateto"reset"U.S.-RussianrelationsafterU.S.PresidentBarackObama
tookofficein2009,theleakedemailscoulddamageacandidatetheKremlinmayconsiderhostileandbenefitheropponent,who
hasbeenfriendlier.
PutinaccusedClintonofstirringupprotestsagainsthisruleafteraDecember2011Russianparliamentaryelectionthatwasmarred
byallegationsoffraud,sayingshehadencouraged"mercenary"Kremlinfoesbycriticizingthevote.
"Shesetthetoneforsomeoppositionactivists,gavethemasignal,theyheardthissignalandstartedactivework,"Putintold
supporters.
AskedaboutclaimsthatRussianintelligencehadhackedtheDNCtoobtaintheemails,WikileaksfounderJulianAssangetold
NBCNews'RichardEngel"thereisnoproofofthatwhatsoever"andsaid"thisisadiversion"pushedbytheClintoncampaign.
TRUMP'SWARMERTONE
AnalystssaidRussia'sgoalmaybemuchbroaderthansimplymeddlingintheU.S.presidentialelection.
"It'sagrossoversimplificationtosuggestthattheRussiangovernmentisall-inforDonaldTrump,"saidAndrewWeiss,aRussia
analystattheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,aWashington-basedthinktank.
"It'sinRussia'sinterest...toportraytheUnitedStatesasrivenwithpopulardiscontent,xenophobiaandhigh-levelpolitical
corruption,"Weisssaid."ItfitsnicelywiththeKremlin'sstandardnarrative...thattheWhiteHouserushestocriticizeothers
withoutgettingitsownhouseinorder."
TheRussianleadermaywellhavebeenencouragedbyTrump'scommentstoTheNewYorkTimeslastweekthatwithhiminthe
WhiteHouse,NATOmightnotautomaticallydefendtheBalticstatesthatwereonceapartoftheRussian-ledSovietUnion.
DespitepublicTrump-Putinexchangesofpraise,EugeneRumer,aformernationalintelligenceofficerforRussiaandEurasia,
warnedagainstreachinganyquickconclusionsaboutPutin'sviewofTrump.
"Wecansaywithsomedegreeofconfidencethattheydon'tlikeHillary,"Rumersaid."It'slessclearthattheylikeTrump,although
overtheyearstheRussianshavesaidtheyprefertodealwiththeRepublicans-(that)theyarekindofhard-linebuttheycando
deals."
AdiplomatwithexperienceworkingonRussiasaidtheKremlinalsomightbebettingthatClintonwillwinandissendingashot
acrossherbow.
"Messingwithherlikethisnowputsheronnoticethatthesearetoughguysthatshe'sgottobereallycarefulwith,"saidthe
diplomat,whospokeonconditionofanonymity.
AU.S.intelligenceofficialwhoisreviewingtheemailsaspartoftheinvestigationintotheiroriginsaidthatthoseemailsdescribing
theprivilegestheDemocraticNationalCommitteeshowersonitswealthiestdonorsbolstertheRussiannarrativeofanAmerican
politicalsystemriggedbythewealthyandriddledwithcorruption.
"InadditiontocounteringtheU.S.narrativethattheRussiangovernmentisacorruptoligarchy,leakingtheseemailsfitsrather
convenientlywithTrump'schargesaboutariggedsystemand'crookedHillary',"saidtheofficial,whospokeonconditionof
anonymitytodiscussdomesticpolitics.
2016Thomson/Reuters.Allrightsreserved.
BreakingNewsatNewsmax.comhttp://www.newsmax.com/Headline/russia-email-hack-
dnc/2016/07/25/id/740424/#ixzz4FWUCknjp
[EDPStoAlltheMaterialFoundAbove:
RealityEverywhereSeemALittleOutofSynch???MattersSeemtoReflect'BizarroWorld'(forthoseof
uswhorememberSupermancomicsofold)???
Well,WelcometoPRC/RU's"UnrestrictedWarfare"(theweaponizationofallaspectsoflife)--IE--feels
likeWWIIIin'slowmotion'
UkrainehasbeeninthemiddleofthatUWmessfortwoyears..withpunditssomewhatinadequately
callingit'hybridwarfare'!!!]
[ADDITIONALNEWSBELOW..THEPASSINGOFANACADEMICICON/FROMWD&VK]
Subject:ObituraryProf.OrestSubtelny
InCelebrationof
ORESTSUBTELNY
May17,1941-July24,2016
P
PassedawaypeacefullyonJuly24,2016,aftersuccumbingtocanceranddementia.BorninKrakow,occupiedPoland,onMay17,1941,
OrestcametotheUnitedStateswithhisparentsasarefugeein1949.InhisnewhometownofPhiladelphiaheattendedtherenowned
CentralHighSchoolandwasactiveinPlast,theUkrainianScoutingorganization,wherehemademanylifelongfriendships,especiallyin
hisfraternityBurlaky.AftergraduatingfromTempleUniversitywithaBAin1965andfromtheUniversityofNorthCarolina-ChapelHill
withanMAin1967,hecompletedhisPhDatHarvardUniversityin1973inHistoryandMiddleEasternStudies.Histhesis,entitled
UnwillingAllies:TheRelationsofHetmanPylypOrlykwiththeOttomanPorteandtheCrimeanKhanate,wasthefirstdoctorateinthe
newly-formedUkrainianStudiesProgramatHarvard.WhileatHarvardhemethiswife,Maria,andafterseveralmemorableyearsas
AssistantandthenAssociateProfessoratHamiltonCollegeinClinton,NY,in1982hemovedtoYorkUniversityinTorontowherehewas
ProfessorofHistoryandPoliticalScienceuntilhisretirementin2015.Anavidsoccerfan,heplayedfortheAll-AmericanTeamincollege
andlaterwiththeNorwoodKickersinBoston.
DuringhisacademiccareerheauthoredsixbooksonEastEuropeanandUkrainianhistory,includingTheMazepists:UkrainianSeparatism
inthe18thCenturyandDominationofEasternEurope:NativeNobilitiesandForeignAbsolutism,andatotalof55articlesandbook
chapters.DuringthelastyearsofhiscareerhewasworkingonahistoryofthePlastUkrainianScoutingmovement.Hewaseditorofthe
journalNationalitiesPapersandanorganizerofmanyinternationalscholarlyconferences.From1998to2012hewasadirectorof
CanadianInternationalDevelopmentAgency(CIDA)projectsinUkraine.
Hismostimportantscholarlycontributionwashisbook,Ukraine:AHistory,whichwaspublishedbytheUniversityofTorontoPressin
1988,shortlybeforeUkrainesindependence.Thebookgavethecountryanauthoritativehistoryduringitsformativeyears.Ithasbeen
publishedinfoureditionsandtranslatedintonumerouslanguages.ItwillremainhislastinglegacytoUkraineandUkrainians.
Forhisscholarlyandprofessionalcontributions,hewaspresentedwiththeOrderofMeritbytheGovernmentofUkrainein2001.Hewas
namedaForeignMemberoftheUkrainianAcademyofSciencesandawardedanHonoraryDoctoratebytheDiplomaticAcademyof
Ukraine.HewasalsoawardedtheShevchenkoMedalbytheUkrainianCanadianCongressforhisoutstandingcontributionstothe
developmentoftheUkrainianCanadiancommunityinthecategoryofEducation.
Heissurvivedbyhiswife,Prof.MariaSubtelnyson,Dr.AlexanderSubtelnyofCambridge,MAsister,Dr.OksanaIsajiw(Irenaeus)of
Newton,NJandbymanyotherfamilymembersinCanada,theUS,andUkraine.Heartfeltthanksareextendedtothosestalwartfriends
whowereasupportduringtryingtimestohisbrother-in-law,Dr.GeorgeLuczkiw,whosteppedinatcrucialmomentstohisphysicians,
Drs.ZenonPahuta,MartinChepesiuk,SandraBlack,andDavidBitontiandtothecaringstaffofTorontoWesternHospital,HumberRiver
Hospital,andtheUkrainianCanadianCareCentre.VisitationatTurner&Porter,YorkeChapel,2357BloorSt.W.,Toronto,onThursday,
July28,24pmand69pm.Panakhydaat7:30pm.FuneralmassonFriday,July29at10amatSt.DemetriusUkrainianCatholic
Church,135LaRoseAve.,followedbyintermentatParkLawnCemetery.FriendsareinvitedtojointhefamilyataCelebrationofLife
receptionattheOldMillRestaurant,21OldMillRd.,immediatelythereafter.
Forthosewhowish,donationsmaybemadetoPlastUkrainianScoutingOrganization,theUkrainianCanadianCareCentre,ortheHurvitz
BrainSciencesCentreatSunnybrookHospital.
http://www.canadahelps.org/en/charities/plast-ukrainian-youth-association-of-canada1978-associatio/
http://stdemetrius.ca/donate/index.php
http://sunnybrook.ca/foundation/brain/
From:ValentinaKuryliw<vkuryliw@sympatico.ca>
Subject:HistorianOrestSubtelny,authorofUkraine:AHistory,passesaway/
To:ZaryckyWalter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,RudVictor<ytato1@aol.com>,MaddenCheryl<jesseraunte@icloud.com>
Cc:MotylAlexander<ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu>,WolowynaOleh<OLEHW@aol.com>
FYI
ValentinaKuryliw
vkuryliw@sympatico.ca
hreced@ualberta.ca
ChairNationalHolodomorEducationCommittee,UCC
DirectorofEducation
HolodomorResearchandEducationConsortium,CIUS,
UniversityofAlberta
47WestroyalRd.
Toronto,Ontario,M9P2C4
416-242-5361
HistorianOrestSubtelny,authorofUkraine:AHistory,passesaway/frommartadyczoksTweet

Senttime: 08/01/201610:33:14AM
FW:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UAinNYT+9More
Subject: Stories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREE
AMIGOSFORA...
Subject:Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UAinNYT+9
MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREE
AMIGOSFORA...
Subject:Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT
&UAinNYT+9MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfrom
DailyBeast]THESTORYOF'THREEAMIGOSFORANINSANEWORLD(JA-DT-VP)'[ZKinNationalInterestTries
toDissectan'EmergingTrumpDoctrine'
To:
Subject:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS8-1-16][ODDD]Fwd:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE[JDDD]DT&UA
inNYT+9MoreStories..[ANT/FDD]UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+..[MBfromDaily
Beast]THESTORYOF'THREEAMIGOSFORANINSANEWORLD(JA-DT-VP)'[ZKinNationalInterestTriesto
Dissectan'EmergingTrumpDoctrine'
Subject:Ukraine:NYT,WP,USEKyiv,WoE
ODnote:Readingthearticlesbelow,Icouldnthelpbutreflectthattoday,August1,2016marksthe41stanniversary
ofthesigningoftheHelsinkiFinalAct.WithitsillegaloccupationofCrimeaandaggressionineasternUkraine,
RussiacontinuestoflagrantlyflouteverysingleoneoftheOSCEprinciplesenshrinedinthisseminalagreement,
includingterritorialintegrity,inviolabilityofborders,andsovereignty.Heretofore,everymajorpartypresidential
candidatehassupportedthetenetsfoundintheHelsinkiFinalAct(includingtwoRepublicanBobDoleand
DemocratHillaryClinton-whoasSenatorsatsomepointduringtheirtenuresservedontheHelsinkiCommission).
TheNewYorkTimes
DonaldTrumpGivesQuestionableExplanationofEventsinUkraine
ByDAVIDE.SANGERandMAGGIEHABERMANJULY31,2016(August1,2016printedition)
DonaldJ.TrumponSundayofferedamuddledexplanationofhisviewsaboutthe2014annexationofCrimeaby
RussiaanditscontinuedeffortstoundermineUkrainescontrolofotherpartsofthecountry,andheamplifiedhis
earliersuggestionthat,ifelectedpresident,hemightrecognizeRussiasclaimandendsanctionsagainstit.
InaninterviewwithGeorgeStephanopoulosontheABCNewsprogramThisWeek,Mr.Trumpsaidthatifhewere
president,PresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.Hethenbackpedaledwhen
Mr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefornearlytwoyears.
HesnotgoingintoUkraine,O.K.,justsoyouunderstand,Mr.Trump,theRepublicannominee,saidwhentheissue
cameup.HesnotgoingtogointoUkraine,allright?Youcanmarkitdown.Youcanputitdown.Youcantakeit
anywhereyouwant.
Well,hesalreadythere,isnthe?Mr.Stephanopoulosinterrupted.
O.K.,well,hesthereinacertainway,Mr.Trumpreplied.ButImnotthere.YouhaveObamathere.Andfrankly,
thatwholepartoftheworldisamessunderObamawithallthestrengththatyouretalkingaboutandallofthepower
ofNATOandallofthis.Inthemeantime,hesgoingaway.HetaketakesCrimea.
InterpretingMr.TrumpsstatementswhatheunderstandsaboutthecurrentstatusofUkraine,aformerSoviet
republic,andhowitwouldchangeinaTrumpadministrationisdifficultgiventhefracturednatureoftheexchange.
ButtheyweresignificantbecauseMr.TrumphasseeminglyembracedMr.Putin,repeatedlycalledforbetterrelations
withRussiaandshownanunwillingnesstocondemnMr.PutinforhisaggressiveactionsagainstRussiasneighbors
anditscrackdownsonfreedomsathome.
QuestionshavebeenraisedaboutthewateringdownofasectionoftheRepublicanplatformdealingwithUkraine
amidevidencethatwordingtosupportsendinglethalweaponstotheUkrainiangovernmentwasremovedfromthe
text.
Notsince1976,whenPresidentGeraldFordcommittedamajorgaffeinoneofhisdebateswithJimmyCarter,
declaringthatthereisnoSovietdominationofEasternEurope,hastheissueofAmericansupportofEastern
Europeanstates,boththoseinNATOandthoseoutsideit,emergedasamajorpresidentialcampaignissue.Itwas
enormouslyharmfultoMr.Ford,becausehisstatementseemedtosuggestthathedidnotunderstandthegeopolitics
oftheregion,whichhisstaffdenied.
Ukrainebecameaseparatenationin1991afterthefalloftheBerlinWallandthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.It
steadilyflirtedwiththeWestandwithNATO,andRussianofficialsfeareditwouldbepulledoutofMoscowsorbit.
Butapro-Russianpresident,ViktorF.Yanukovych,wasdemocraticallyelectedin2010andremainedinpoweruntil
hewasoustedin2014,ultimatelytakingupexileinRussia.
Mr.Yanukovychhadhiredalobbyingfirmco-foundedbyPaulManafort,nowMr.Trumpscampaignmanager,to
improvehisimageintheWestandavoidpunishmentforveeringtowardRussia.
TheannexationofCrimeain2014wasseenasbothapowergrabandalandgrabbyMr.Putin.Itwascondemned
bytheUnitedStatesanditsEuropeanallies,whichallissuedsanctions.Sincethen,Russiantroops,oftenoutof
uniform,havebeenseen,andsometimeskilled,inRussian-speakingpartsofUkrainewhereapro-Russiainsurgency
hasfoughtthecurrentUkrainiangovernment.
RepublicansinCongresshavelongpressedformoreassistancetoUkrainetopushbackagainstMr.Putin,including
lethalaid.ButallreferencestogivinglethalaidtotheUkrainiangovernmentwerekeptoutofthepartyplatform.
InearlyJuly,adelegateofferedaplatformamendmenttosupportlethalaid.AdelegateforSenatorTedCruzfrom
Texas,DianaDenman,saidinaninterviewthatshehadpushedforinclusionofthelanguage.ButMs.Denmansaidher
amendment,asproposed,wasnevervotedonbecausetwomenwhowereobservingthepanelsdeliberationsmoved
totabletheamendment,andsuggestedthatitbediscussedlater.
TheyopenlysaidtheywerehiredbytheTrumpcampaignandworkedforMr.Trump,Ms.Denmansaid,adding
thatshedidnotrecalltheirnames.InthefinalversionoftheRepublicanplatform,thewordsaboutweaponswere
droppedandreplacedbythetermappropriateassistance.
Mr.TrumpacknowledgedintheABCinterviewthatthelanguagehadbeenwatereddown,buthesaidhehadnothing
todowithit.(Mr.Manaforthasalsosaidhewasunawareofthematter.)
Iwasntinvolvedinthat,Mr.Trumpsaid.Honestly,Iwasnotinvolved.Butheacknowledgedthathissupporters
were.Theysoftenedit,Iheard,butIwasnotinvolved,hesaid.
Mr.TrumpwentontoarguethatMr.PutinmighthavebeenwelcomeinCrimea,sidesteppingtheissueofwhetherthe
Russianleaderhadviolatedthesovereigntyofanotherstatetotaketheterritory,whereRussiahasamajornavalbase.
ThepeopleofCrimea,fromwhatIveheard,wouldratherbewithRussiathanwheretheywere,Mr.Trumpsaid.
Andyouhavetolookatthat,also.
Hewentontosay,Ukraineisamess,butheputtheblameforthatonMr.Obama,notonMr.Putin.
JakeSullivan,thechiefpolicyadvisertoHillaryClinton,Mr.TrumpsDemocraticopponent,saidtheassessment
reinforcedhislackoftemperamentalfitnessforthepresidency.
TodayhegamelyrepeatedPutinsargumentthatRussiawasjustifiedinseizingthesovereignterritoryofanother
countrybyforce,Mr.Sullivansaid.Thisisscarystuff.Butitshouldntsurpriseus.
FollowDavidE.Sanger@SangerNYTandMaggieHaberman@maggieNYTonTwitter.
BarryMeiercontributedreporting.
TheWashingtonPost
TrumpsuggestsUSacceptRussiasannexationofCrimea
ByAssociatedPress
August1at3:24AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-suggests-us-accept-russias-annexation-of-crimea/2016/07/31/fc7f14f6-576b-
11e6-8b48-0cb344221131_story.html
WASHINGTONRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpissuggestingtheU.S.acceptRussiasannexationofCrimea
ifitwouldleadtobetterrelationswithMoscowandstrongercooperationinfightingIslamicStatemilitants.
ThatviewrunscountertotheObamaadministration,whichimposedeconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaforannexingtheterritoryin
Ukrainetwoyearsago.TheUnitedNationsalsodoesntwantcountriestorecognizeCrimeaaspartofRussia,andsometop
RepublicansstaunchlydefendCrimeaagainstwhattheyconsiderRussianaggression.
InaninterviewbroadcastSundayonABCsThisWeek,TrumpsuggestedthatthepeopleofCrimeawouldratherbepartof
Russia.However,theU.S.hasntrecognizedthelegitimacyofRussianreferendumsinCrimeaandbelievestheywerenot
conductedfairly.
TrumpalsosaidhewasntinvolvedintheeffortthatsoftenedsupportintheRepublicanPartyplatformonassistingUkraine.
Althoughtheplatformisnotpro-Russia,TrumpsupporterssucceededinpreventingareferencetoarmingUkrainefrombeing
added.
Inthepast,Trumpscampaignmanager,politicalstrategistPaulManafort,lobbiedonbehalfofViktorYanukovych,aUkrainian
presidentandsupporterofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.ManaforthassaidneitherhenoranyoneelsewiththeTrump
campaignpushedfortheplatformchanges.
OnthetopicofPutinandUkraine,theRepublicansaid:HesnotgoingintoUkraine,OK,justsoyouunderstand.Hesnotgonna
gointoUkraine,allright?Youcanmarkitdown.Youcanputitdown.Youcantakeitanywhereyouwant.
ABCsGeorgeStephanopoulossaid,Well,hesalreadythere,isnthe?Trumpreplied,OK.Well,hesthereinacertainway.
TheClintoncampaignpointedtotheexchangetoquestionwhatTrumpknowsaboutthesubjectandarguedthattheRepublicanis
repeatingPutinstalkingpointsonCrimea.
Thisisscarystuff,ClintoncampaignspokesmanJakeSullivansaidinastatement.Butitshouldntsurpriseus.Thiscomeson
theheelsofhistacitinvitationtotheRussianstoinvadeourNATOalliesinEasternEurope.AnditsyetmoreproofwhyDonald
Trumpistemperamentallyunfitandtotallyunqualifiedtobecommanderinchief.
politics
InresponsetootherquestionsaboutU.S.-Russiarelations,Trumpdismissedsuggestionsthathehasanykindofrelationshipwith
Putin,sayinghehasneithermetPutinnorspokenonthephonewithhim.Askedwhyhehadsaidseveraltimesinthepastthathe
hadarelationshipwithPutin,Trumpsaidhedoesntknowwhathavingarelationshipmeans.
Hehassaidnicethingsaboutmeovertheyears,TrumpsaidofPutin.Irememberyearsago,hesaidsomething,manyyears
ago,hesaidsomethingveryniceaboutme.Isaidsomethinggoodabouthimwhen(broadcaster)LarryKingwason.Thiswasa
longtimeago.
TrumpsaiditwouldbeagreatthingiftheUnitedStatesgotalongwithRussiaandifRussiawouldhelpfighttheIslamicState
group.
WellhaveabetterrelationshipwithRussia,hesaid.AndhavingagoodrelationshipwithRussiaisagoodthing,notabad
thing.
(OD:Timedoesnotpermitmetoincludeallarticlesonthissubject,soIvelimitedmyselftothetwoabove)
[ED:ONITEMBELOW..KeyQuoteisfromAmb.Pyatt:
IwasalsoencouragedbytheveryclearfocusontheissueofaccessfortheOSCEmonitorsinEasternUkraine.Its
becomeincreasinglyapparentjustfromreadingtheSMMreportsthatthisisaproblemalmostentirelyonthe
separatist,Russian-controlledsideoftheContactLine.About90percentofaccessdenialshappenonthatsideofthe
line.AndaveryclearmessagefrombothAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikabouttheneedtoaddressthisissue,including
OSCEaccesstotheinternationallyrecognizedborderwhichitvirtuallydoesnothaveatthispoint,outsidetwoisolated
points.AndthataccesstotheborderaspreparationforrestorationoffullUkrainiancontroloftheinternationalborder
whichisanessentialrequirementforfullimplementationoftheMinskAgreements.]
USEmbassyKyiv
http://ukraine.usembassy.gov/statements/pyatt-baer-07292016.html
TelephonicPressBriefingbyU.S.AmbassadortoUkraineGeoffreyPyattandU.S.PermanentRepresentativetothe
OSCEDanielBaer
BrusselsMediaHub
July29,2016
Moderator:ThankyousomuchandgreetingstoeverybodyfromtheU.S.DepartmentofState.Iwouldliketowelcomeallof
youwhohavedialedinonthisFridaymorningfromacrossEuropeandIdliketothankyouforjoiningintodaysdiscussion.
WearepleasedthismorningtobejoinedfromViennabytwodistinguisheddiplomats.WehaveU.S.AmbassadortoUkraine
GeoffreyPyattandU.S.PermanentRepresentativetotheOSCE,AmbassadorDanielBaer.Andofcoursewearingtheir
respectivehatstheywillprovideyouanupdateonthesituationintheUkraine.
WearegoingtobegintodayscallwithopeningremarksfromAmbassadorBaerandthenAmbassadorPyatt,andthenwewill
turntoyourquestions.Andofcourseweregoingtotrytogettoasmanyaswecaninthetimethatwehave.
Asareminder,todayscallisontherecordandwiththatIwillturnitovertoyou,AmbassadorBaer.
AmbassadorBaer:ThankssomuchMireille,andthankyouverymuchtoallofyouwhohavejoinedusacrossseveraltime
zones.Iknowforsomeitsmid-morning,forothersitsyourmorningcupofcoffeeandweappreciateyourjoiningusthis
morning.
Justrealquickatthetop,yesterdaywehadameetinginthePermanentCouncilwhereAmbassadorMartinSajdikwhohasbeen
leadingtheTri-LevelContactGroupthatismadeupofOSCEasamediatorandRussiaandUkraineandthathastheseworking
groupsthathavebeenoperatinginMinskovermanymonthsnow,aswellasfromAmbassadorApakanwhoistheleaderofthe
OSCESpecialMonitoringMissioninUkraine.Bothofthemgaveaunitedmessageabouttheimportanceofachievinga
reinstatementoftheceasefireasafirststeptowardsanyfurtherprogressinreachingadiplomaticorpoliticalsituation.
ThesenseintheroomIthinkfromtheother56PermanentRepresentativesaswellasourdelegationwasthatthesituationhas
gottendramaticallyworseinthelastweeks.Wereseeingcasualtiesataratethatwehaventseenforayearnow.Andthefirst
stephasbeenthistalkaboutadisengagementplanthatwouldbedisengagementatseveralhotspotsalongtheLineofContact.
Unfortunately,therewasanefforttoreachanagreementonthedisengagementplanthisweekinMinsk.AmbassadorSajdik
reportedthattheywill,andAmbassadorApakan,reportedthattheywillmakeanotherattemptnextweekinMinsktogetthat
disengagementplanengaged.
ButIthinkoneofthethingsthatbecomesevercleareristhatweneedtoseewordsmatchedwithactions.TheRussianFederation
yesterdayagainclaimedthattheywanteddisengagement.TheyevenaskedthattheSMM,themonitoringmission,spendmore
timemonitoringonbothsidesoftheLineofContact.Butonthegroundweseeaverydifferentpicture.Weseecontinued
resupplyofweaponsandfighters.Weseecontinuedprovocationstokeeptheconflictgoing.Weseecontinuedrestrictionsofthe
SMManditsmonitors.Weseecontinuedshoot-downsofSMMUAVsaftertheyveseenRussianweaponry,heavyweaponsin
areaswhereitshouldntbe.
AndsothemessagethatwasdeliveredtotheRussianFederationyesterdaybymany,manyparticipatingstatesinthePermanent
Councilwasitstimetomatchyourwordswithactionandtogetthatdisengagementontheground.Thedisengagementisonlya
firststepthathastobeconsolidatedandbuiltintoarealceasefire.Therehastobemonitoringontheborder,andallofthose
thingsareanecessarypreconditioninordertoenablethediplomaticandpoliticalprocesstomoveforward.
IwillstopthereandturnitovertoAmbassadorPyatt.
AmbassadorPyatt:Great.Thankyou,Dan.
FirstofallletmesaywhatapleasureitistobehereinVienna.AmbassadorBaerhasbeenaskingmetodothisvisitforabout
twoyearsnowandIfinallygotaroundtoit.
Forme,inpartitwasachancetoexpressdeepappreciationforthepartnershipIveenjoyedwithAmbassadorsApakanand
Sajdik.IthinktheOSCEdoesnotgetallthepubliccredititdeservesfortheessential,courageousrolethatithasplayedin
Ukraine.OSCEactionshavesavedlivesoverthepasttwoandahalfyears.
ItwasalsoachanceformetoseeoneofthePermanentCouncilsandsortoftakethetemperatureofadiscussionwiththedaily
realitythatIlivewith.IwillsayIwasparticularlyencouragedbytheverystrongstatementfromtheEuropeanUnionandthe
messagefromourmanyEuropeanpartnersabouttheimportanceofRussiasactions,andaveryclearmessagethattherelaxation
ofsanctionswillbelinkedtothefullimplementationbytheRussianFederationoftheMinskagreements.
IwasalsoencouragedbytheveryclearfocusontheissueofaccessfortheOSCEmonitorsinEasternUkraine.Itsbecome
increasinglyapparentjustfromreadingtheSMMreportsthatthisisaproblemalmostentirelyontheseparatist,Russian-
controlledsideoftheContactLine.About90percentofaccessdenialshappenonthatsideoftheline.Andaveryclearmessage
frombothAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikabouttheneedtoaddressthisissue,includingOSCEaccesstotheinternationally
recognizedborderwhichitvirtuallydoesnothaveatthispoint,outsidetwoisolatedpoints.Andthataccesstotheborderas
preparationforrestorationoffullUkrainiancontroloftheinternationalborderwhichisanessentialrequirementforfull
implementationoftheMinskAgreements.
TheotherpointthatIconveyed,asidefromreaffirmingthemessagesthatcamefromAmbassadorsApakanandSajdikaboutthe
deterioratingmilitarysituation,wasalsoourconcernaboutthecontinuedpresenceofRussianorigintroopsandequipmenton
Ukrainianterritory.Andtheintroductionofsomenewweaponsystemswhichwebelieveisatleastpartiallytheexplanationforthe
alarmingspikeinviolenceandcasualtiesthatweveseeninrecentweeks.
Soagain,Illbehappytotakequestionsinwhateverdirectionisusefultopeople.
Moderator:Thankyouverymuch.Thankstobothofyouforsettingthestageforus.
Wearenowgoingtogotothequestionandanswerportionoftodayscall.IbelieveAnnaKorbutisthefirstinthequeuewiththe
UkrainianWeekly.
Question:ThisisAnnaKorbutfromtheUkrainianWeek.IhaveaquestionforbothAmbassadors.
Inyouropinion,whatisthepossibilityofplacingthearmedOSCE,thearmedmissionpoliceintheoccupiedpartsoftheDonbas
alongtheborderandalongtheContactLineandisthatoptionbeingdiscussed?Thankyou.
AmbassadorBaer:AsIsaid,thefocusrightnowisonrestoringtheceasefireandgettingastable,sustainedceasefirebecause
thatisapreconditionforeverythingelse.
Oneoftheconversationsthatshappeninghereandinotherplacesaswell,isobviouslyoneofthepartsoftheMinskAgreements
thatmanyofushavebeenfocusedonisthecommitmenttohavefreeandfairelectionsaccordingtointernationalstandardsand
observedbytheOSCE,byODIHR,andtohavethoselocalelectionsintheareasoftheDonbasthatarecurrentlycontrolledby
Russianseparatists.
IthinkoncetheresaceasefireontheLineofContact,oncetheresasustainedceasefireontheLineofContact,itwillbe
necessarytoassesswhatfurtherenhancementtosecurityisnecessaryinordertohavefreeandfairelections.Butthefirststep,no
matterwhat,isaceasefire.Andtobecrystalclear,theSMM,thecurrentmonitoringmission,hasamandate.Itisacivilian
monitoringmissionwithunarmedmonitors.AndtheSMMhasamissionitshouldcontinuetodowhatitsdoing.Itshoulddoits
mission.Welltakealook,wellhavetodoanassessmentoncethereisasustainedceasefireaboutwhatadditionaltoolsmaybe
necessaryandmaybepossible,andobviouslyoneofthethingsthathasbeentalkedaboutbysomepeopleisapolicemissionor
securitypresenceofsomesort.Thatmaybenecessary.ButtheSMMwillcontinuetobeacivilian,unarmedmission.Ithink
thatstheimportantpointfortoday.
Moderator:Thankyou.OurnextquestioniscomingtousfromGermanysARD.WehaveThomasNehlsontheline.Thomas,
goahead.
Question:BothAmbassadorsmentionedthegapbetweenspeakingandactingontheRussianside,butIwonderwhetherthere
couldbealsosomethingmissedontheUkraineside.Whatisthesituation,whatisthestatusinthefieldoftheautonomytalks?I
meanisanothercondition,thepeopleintheoccupiedterritoriesalsomention.Whatareweuptorightnow?
Andthesecondquestion,ifImay,isthereanyburdentoyouwhonegotiateveryhardandtoughthroughwhatMr.Trumpsaid.I
meanitsnotanobody,andhewasgoingto,asfarasIknow,toaccepttheannexingofCrimea.
AmbassadorPyatt:ThisisGeoffPyatt.
Ithink,Thomas,onyourimportantquestion,andyoureright,thereareobligationswhichUkraineundertookaspartoftheMinsk
Agreement.ButthesimplefactisUkrainehasexecutedthevastmajorityofitsobligations.AndPresidentPoroshenkohas
reaffirmedthosecommitmentspubliclyandprivatelyjustoverthepastfewdays.
Ukrainehaspassedanamnestylaw.Ukrainehashadthefirstreadingofaconstitutionalamendment.Ukrainehaspasseda
specialstatuslaw.ButitsveryclearthatRussiahasnotdischargeditsobligations.Thetroopsandequipmenthavenotbeen
withdrawn.Aceasefirehasnotbeenimplemented.Allhostageshavenotbeenreleased.AndtheUkrainianpositionwhichthe
UnitedStatessupports,isthatthefirsttasknow,asAmbassadorBaersaid,istherestorationoftheceasefire.Oncethats
accomplished,wehopethattherecanbeastepbystepprocessofimplementationofthefurtherstepsrequiredunderMinsk.That
isanapproachthatwehaveheardfromChancellorMerkel,fromPresidentHollande,andIshouldaddtheUnitedStatesisputting
maximumeffortintoreinforcingandsupportingtheeffortsofouralliesintheNormandyGroup.Infactthiswasatopicof
conversationjustthisweekbetweenPresidentObamaandChancellorMerkel,anditsnotacoincidencethatthatphonecallwith
theWhiteHousefollowedalmostimmediatelyonaphonecallbetweenChancellorMerkelandPresidentPoroshenko.
SoweareverycloselylashedupinKyivwithouralliesandIknowthatsthecasehereinViennaaswell.
AmbassadorBaer:ThisisDanBaer.
Youllforgivemefornotbeingabletogoonatlengthonyoursecondquestion,butIdothinkitsimportant.Obviouslyweknow
peoplearefollowingcloselythecampaignathome,andAmericancampaignsarealwayscolorfulandfuntowatch.ButIthinkits
importantforpeopletorememberthatAmericanforeignpolicywithrespecttoEuropeansecurityhasactuallybeenremarkably
consistentovermanydecadesthroughDemocraticandRepublicanadministrations,includingoursteadfastcommitmenttoNATO
asabedrockofsecurityintheEuropeanspaceourcommitmenttointernationallaw,andIthinktheenduringinterestofnotonly
Americancitizensbutcitizensofallothercountriesinhavingarules-basedsystemthatincludestherespectforterritorialintegrity
andnotchangingbordersbyforcewillcontinuethroughthenextpresidentandthepresidentafterthat.SoIthinkitsimportantfor
peopletokeepaneyeonboththelonghistorythatwehaveinourcommitmenttoEuropeansecurityaswellasthelonggame
goingforward.
Moderator:Thankyou.
ForournextquestionweregoingtojumpovertoGreeceandwehaveKostasMavraganisfromHuffingtonPostGreeceonthe
line.
Question:HellofromGreece.
SomequestionsforAmbassadorPyatt.InlightofyoubecomingthenewU.S.AmbassadorinGreece,Iwouldaskyouto
commentonthepossiblerepercussionsofthecoupattemptTurkeyonGreco-Turkishrelations.Aretensionstobeexpected?
AndalsowhataboutU.S.-TurkishrelationsandRussia-Turkishrelations?Inadditiontothese,whatistheU.S.positiononthe
matterofTurkishofficersseekingpoliticalasyluminGreece?
AmbassadorPyatt:Thankyouforthequestions.IverymuchlookforwardtomeetingyouwhenImonthegroundinAthens
andtakeoverasU.S.AmbassadortoGreece.
Fornow,ImstillAmbassadortoUkrainethough,soIhopeyoullforgivemeifIpassonyourquestions,defertomyfriendand
colleagueAmbassadorPearceonthosethingsfornow.
IwillsaythoughonthesortofmovethatIwillbemakinginthenextcoupleofweeks,itisstrikingtomeasIgettomovetothe
countrythatisthebirthplaceofdemocracy,tocomefromacountry,Ukraine,wherepeoplehavestruggledsovaliantlyoverthe
pasttwoyearstobothaffirmtheirdemocracybutalsobepartofalargerEuropeancommunity.AndIthinktheonepiecethatI
wanttospendsometimethinkingaboutasImanagethistransitionmyselfisthereallyremarkablestorythatIvelivedthroughand
seenoverthepastthreeyearswhichisUkrainiansmakingextraordinarysacrificesinpursuitofavisionofEuropeanvaluesand
Europeaninstitutionsthatisquitepowerfulandenormouslyattractive.AndIthinkitsworththinkingaboutinthecontextofthis
largerdebateoverEuropeaninstitutions.ItsworthbearinginmindthatforaverylargecountryattheheartofEurope,acountry
of45millionpeople,howverycompellingtheEuropeanpackagestillis.
Soletmeleaveitonthat.Andagain,Iapologize.IwillbeveryhappytoengagewithyouontheGreece-specificquestionsbut
ImgoingtowaituntilImactuallydoingthatjob.
Moderator:Thanks.
NowweregoingtomoveovertoRomania,andwehaveDragosCosicfromDigi24ontheline.
Question:Thankyouverymuch.IhavetwoquestionsforbothoftheAmbassadors.
RomaniaisveryconcernedaboutthesecurityintheBlackSea.Iwouldliketoknowyourassessmentsaboutthisissue.
Andalso,IwouldliketoaskyouaboutthesecurityinotherpartsofUkraine.Wesawdifferentnewsaboutsomemovementsfor
exampleintheWesternpart,andalsoRomaniasinterestinthesouthernpart,citieslikeOdessa.Thankyouverymuch.
AmbassadorPyatt:Thankyouverymuch,Dragos.Firstofall,IshouldsayRomaniahasbeenagoodpartner.IwasinOdessa
justlastweekendforalargemaritimeexercisethatUkrainewashostingalongwiththeUnitedStates,butRomaniawasalsovery
prominentthere.Youhadashipinport.TherewereacoupleofRomanianofficersatareceptionIhostedonSundaynight.
WetooareveryinterestedandveryengagedonthesequestionsofBlackSeasecurity.Thatwaspartofthemessageofthevery
largeSeaBreezeexercisewhichweallparticipatedin.Designedtobothbuildinteroperabilityandthereweresomeverycomplex
aspects,unusuallycomplexaspectstothisyearsexerciseincludingabeachlandingveryclosetowhatusedtobeRomania,down
inBessarabia.ButalsotoraiseUkrainiancapacity,especiallyinlightoftheillegaloccupationandannexationofCrimeaand
everythingthatflowedfromthat.
Sothatwillcontinuetobeourapproach.Wearegoingtocontinue,ImspeakingfortheUnitedStates,continuetohaveavery
forthrightandclearviewontheillegalstatusofRussiasactionsinCrimea.
OntherestofUkraine,Iknowitshardtobelievesometimesfollowingtheheadlineswhichareunderstandablyfocusedonwhats
happeninginDonbas.ThepointIwouldmakeabouttherestofUkraineisitsactuallyquiteremarkablehownormaland
successfultherestofUkraineisbeing.Theeconomyisgrowing.Businessesarereopening.Thereisaquiteprofoundsenseof
resolveamongUkrainians,andIspeaktoalotofthemwhetherinOdessaorKharkivorKyivorLviv.Theircommitment,their
desiretomovetowardsEuropeaninstitutions,Europeanstandards,theirinterestingettingonwiththeoverduetaskofreforming
theUkrainianstate,includinggrapplingwithsomeofthesamekindsofcorruptionissuesthatyouvemadeprogressontherein
Romania,buildinganattractiveinvestmentclimate,movingthecountryforward.Andwhatsveryclearaftertwoandahalfyearsis
thatwhateverRussiadoesorisabletodointheDonbas,itisnotabletoholdbackUkrainefromitsEuropeanchoice.
Moderator:Thankyou.WeregoingtogobackovertoUkraineandwevegotMarinaSemenenkoonthelinefromtheoutlet
UNN.
Question:WecanseenowthatRussiadoesnt[meet]itscommitments.SomaybeyoushouldsanctionharderforRussia.
AmbassadorBaer:HiMarina.IthinkyourpointisthatRussiahasntfollowedthroughonwhatitscommittedtoandsothe
questionhastobewhatmorecanwedo.Ithinkfirstofall,itsimportanttolookbackandseeoverthelasttwoyearshow
coordinatedandunifiednotonlytheUnitedStatesandtheEU,butotherpartnershavebeenintermsofsendingthemessageto
RussiathatwewanttocreateincentivesforRussiatodowhatitsaysitwilldo.Thatistosay,RussiasaysitwillimplementMinsk,
thatitwillimplementtheMinskAgreements,andalltheincentives,andfrankly,theinterestoftheRussianpeopleisinRussiadoing
whatithassaiditwilldo.Not--obviouslytheinterestofthepeopleofUkraineaswell.
SoIthinkrightnowwereveryfocusedontryingtofindsupport,thedisengagementandthereestablishmentoftheceasefire,and
obviouslytheEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStateshavejustrenewedsanctionsrecently.Thesanctionsarenotanythingthat
anyonewants,buttheyarenecessaryinordertocreatetheincentivesfortheKremlintomaketherightdecisionstoleadtode-
escalation,toleadtoestablishmentoftheceasefireandsustainedceasefire,andtomakepossibletherestofthestepsthatarelaid
outinMinsk.
Moderator:Thankyou.Idontseeanyotherquestionsinthequeueatthemoment,soIwillturnbacktoyou,Ambassadors
PyattandBaer,ifthereareanyclosingremarksthatyouwouldliketomake.
AmbassadorBaer:ThanksMireille,andthanksagaintofolksontheline.Ihopefolkshavebeenabletogetthrough.Sorryfor
someofthetechnicalproblemsthismorning.Andthankstoourfriendswhoareorganizingthis.Iknowitsalwaysdifficulttohave
peopleinthreedifferentcitiestryingtomakeoneofthesethingshappen.
IthinkoneofthethingsthatsjustreallyimportantaswegointoAugust,Augusthashistoricallynotalwaysbeenagoodmonth.I
thinkitsreallyimportantthattheeyesoftheinternationalcommunityremainfocusedonthesituationontheground.Therecant
bethisdisjunctbetweenrepeating,betweentheconversationsthatarebeinghad,sometimeswithfrustratingrepetitionaboutthe
needtogetthisdisengagementplan,togettheceasefirerestarted,andthesituationonthegroundwherepeoplearedying.And
oneofthepointswemadeyesterday,theU.S.delegationmadeyesterdayinthePermanentCouncilwas,everytimethegroupthat
isworkingondisengagementinMinsk,everytimetheydecidethattheyllkickitanotherweek,thenthatextraweekcostslives
becausepeoplearedyingeverydayontheground,andnotonlymilitarybutcivilians.Andoneofthethingsthathasbeen
enduringlytruethroughoutthelast2.5years,wheneitherAmbassadorPyattorIhavehadthechancetogoouteastandtalkto
peoplewhohavecomefrombothsidesoftheLineofContact,thethingthatis,thefirstthingthateveryonesaysistheyjustwant
peace.Peopleonbothsidesofthelinejustwantpeace.AndIthinkitsreallyincumbentonallofustocontinuetoputthe
pressureontogetthereinstatementoftheceasefireandtodeliverthepeacethatpeoplewantontheground.
Moderator:Thankyou.Imayhavespokentoosoon.Wedidhavetwomorequestionsjustpopintothequeue.Ifyoure
willingtotakeit,wellseeifwecangettothose.
AmbassadorBaer:Sure.Thatsfine.
AmbassadorPyatt:Danwillhavetocomeupwithhisconclusionagain.[Laughter].
Moderator:ThefirstquestioniscomingfromFredericEgerwhoisafreelancereporterbasedinLatvia.
Question:Hello,AmbassadorBaer.IvebeenconnectingjustrecentlysoIdidntherthebeginningoftheentiretalk.
IjustwantedtoknowifbesidestheMinskAgreementyouhadyourownmaybeplantofind,andyourownideasandsolutionsto
findaquickresolutionofthisconflict.Asyoumentionedjustrightnow,civiliansandcollateraldamagesareoftentheresultof
thesekindofregionalconflicts.Sowouldyou,whendoyouthinkthisconflictcanbeended?Andwhatwillbetheroadmap,the
maybetenpointsthatyouthinkareprioritytoestablishtohaveaceasefirethatstaysinplaceandhavethisoverallconflictresolved
assoonaspossible?
AmbassadorBaer:Frankly,ifIhadaquickfix,Iwouldbeinadifferentjobbynow.
Ithinkoneofthethingsthathasbeenmostheartbreakingformanyofuswhohavebeenworkingontryingtosupportadiplomatic
andapoliticalresolutionoverthelasttwoandahalfyears,hasbeennotonlythefactthatthisentireconflictwasachosenconflict,
wasachosentragedy,atragedythatwasntnecessaryinaworldthatisfilledwithsomanytragediesthatwecantprevent,thisis
onethatwaschosen.
SothatinitialdeepsadnessfromthatfactisfollowedbythefactthatasearlyasSeptemberof2014theMinskProtocol--and
beforethat,frankly,inMayof2014,PresidentPoroshenkospeaceplanwhichwastheprecursortotheMinskProtocol--the
MinskProtocolthatwassignedbybothRussiaandUkraineinSeptemberof2014hasalloftheingredientsofasustainable
peace.Ithasallofthestepsthatarenecessary.Soweveknownwhatneedstobedonefortwoyearsnow.
Theproblemisnotinsolvingsomedifficultpuzzle,itsnot,thisisnotapuzzle.Theproblemispoliticalwill.Andyouknow,my
Ukrainiancolleague,AmbassadorProkopchukhereinVienna,closedhisstatementyesterdaybyrepeatingthewordsofPresident
Poroshenko,whichisthatifMoscowwantedpeaceasmuchasUkrainedid,thisconflictwouldhaveendedlongago.AndIthink
thatremainstruetoday.
Sowehavetorememberthattheformulaisntamystery.Theformulaisinfrontofusandhasbeeninfrontofusfortwoyears.
Thechallengeistogetthatformulaengaged,andobviouslytomakesurethattheKremlinisengagedonactuallymakingpeace
ratherthanfomentingconflict.
AmbassadorPyatt:Again,thisisGeoff.Iwouldjust,toreinforcethepointAmbassadorBaerjustmade,ifyoulookatactions
onthegroundintermsofthesignalsthataresentbyRussiascontinuedsupplyofequipment,fuel,weapons,thatiswhatisdriving
thisconflict.AndthatistheprocessthattheMinskAgreementwasmeanttohalt.
PresidentPoroshenko,asIsaidearlier,hasmadeveryclearthathestandsbythecommitmentshemadeundertheMinsk
Agreements.Infacttherehasbeenquiteabitofprogressinthataspectsofthenegotiationsinthetrilateralcontactgroupin
Minsk.
Wheretheresadlyhasnotbeenasmuchprogressisonthesecuritytrack.Andindeed,themessagewhichAmbassadorsApakan
andSajdikdeliveredveryclearlytoeverybodyhereinViennabeforetheywentoffontheirsummerbreakyesterday,isthatthe
militarysituationonthegroundisasbadasithasbeensincethesummerof2015.
ThereisIthinkonthepartofmanyofus,deepconcernaboutthesesignalsthatratherthanterminatingthisconflict,Russias
actionsarehavingtheeffectofescalatingitonceagain.
Moderator:OurlastquestiontodayiscomingtousfromKristinaButkowhoiswithUkrainianNews.
Question:MygreetingsforbothAmbassadors.
SoyesterdayPresidentPutinsaid[inaudible]Crimeanfederaldistrictanddoesitmeanthatthesanctionswillbeprolongedtothe
southandfederaldistrictwhichitwasaddedto?
AmbassadorPyatt:Christina,thisisGeoff.Letmeanswerthefirsthalfofthatquestion,thenIllaskAmbassadorBaertopick
upsomeofit.
IthinkasregardstheUnitedStatesofAmerica,thisdecisionbytheRussiangovernmenthasnoimpactwhatsoever.Wedonot
recognizetheillegalannexationofCrimea.ThatwillnotchangebasedonwhothegovernorisinSevastopol.Itwillnotchangeon
thebasisofwheretheboundariesofaparticularOblastorterritoryisdrawn.Crimea,quitesimply,ispart,legallypartofUkraine.
ThatisU.S.policy.AndasVicePresidentBidenmadeclearintheRadalastfall,itslikelytoremainU.S.policy.
AmbassadorBaer:Ithinkitsimportantalso,thisisntjustamatterofU.S.policyasAmbassadorPyattsaid.Youknow,the
UNGAresolutionthatwastakenafterRussiasattemptedannexationofCrimeamadeclearthatasamatterofinternationallaw,
CrimeaisUkraine.AndthatwastruebeforeRussiasattempttoannexitanditstrueafterward,anditstruenomatterwhatkinds
ofgymnasticstheKremlingoesthroughinordertoredrawspacesonamap.
Ithinkitsimportantthat,youknow,apointthatwevemadeherewhenRussianrepresentativessaytheywanttohavea
conversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecurity,isthatanyconversationaboutthefutureofEuropeansecuritywillhavetostart
withCrimea.ItwillhavetostartwithRussiasattempttoredrawbordersbyforceinthe21s tcentury.
SoIthink,Idontknowwhatsbehindthemovetoincorporate,intheirview,intosomeotherdistrictoftheRussianFederation.
PerhapstheyretryingtohidetheenormouscostthatthisillegalactionhashadfortheRussiantaxpayer.Perhapstheyretryingto
dosomethingelse.Butinanycase,theirredrawingmapsdoesntmakeadifferenceintheeyesofthelaworintheeyesofthevast
majorityoftheinternationalcommunitythatscondemnedthisaction.
Moderator:Thatconcludestodaysconversation,andIwouldliketoextendsincerethankstobothofyou,AmbassadorsPyatt
andBaer.AmbassadorPyatt,Iknowyoudidntgetachancetomakeclosingremarksearlier.Werethereanyotherlastwords
youwantedtogive?
AmbassadorPyatt:IllleaveitwhereDandid,andIagain,IthinktheimportantmessagethatIwouldtakefromconversations
hereinViennathesetwodaysiswecannotbecomplacent.Andbecausethesuccessofourdiplomacyisthevehiclethrough
whichwehopetoendtheterrible,terriblehumansufferingthathashappenedineasternUkraine,wecanttakeAugustoff.
Moderator:Thankyou.Andthankyoutoallofourparticipantswhohavedialedintoday.Wereallyappreciateyoujoiningus.
####
WindowonEurasia
UkrainiansDenounceTrumpsReadinesstoLegitimizePutinsCrimeanAnschluss
thatifhewerepresident,PresidentVladimirPutinofRussiawouldnotsendhisforcesintoUkraine.He
thenbackpedaledwhenMr.StephanopoulospointedoutthatRussiantroopshadbeentherefornearly
twoyears.
And:S.V.Dale,TrumpPUSHEDforGOPtochangeUkraineposition,nowclaimshedidnt:Thepro-
RussiachangewastheonlyplatformtweaktheTrumpcampcaredabout,sources
say,huggingtonpost.com,7/31
And:Detailed8-pageportraitofTRUMPscampaignmanager:HowPaulMANAFORTwieldedpower
MERMOUD]inthecampaigntopropupViktorYANUKOVYCH:DonaldTrumpandRussia:aweb
thatgrowsmoretangledallthetime,theguardian.com,7/30
era,thedailybest.com,8/111-pagearticle
Inabizarremind-meldthatcouldonlyhappentoday,theWikiLeaksfounderisrefusingtosaywhether
hegotthehackedDNCemailsfromRussia,andTrumpisdefendingRussia.
And:GorgeF.WILL,HowentangledwithRussiaisTrump,washingtonpost.com,7/29op-ed
BABICHasRussiasambassadorto
UKRAINE:http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/07/29_a_9719417.shtml
And:RussiaseconomystillFALLINGafterhittingrockbottomReport[byMoscowsHigher
SchoolofEconomics],themoscowtimes.com,8/1
Subject:UA/PutinVisitsSlovenia/ChechnyatacticinAleppo/+
AndreasUmland
TherearemoreandmoresignsthatRussiamaybepreparinganewmilitaryoffensiveinEasternUkraine.
http://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/events/bojovikiv-vidklikajut-z-vidpustki-do-mistsja-postijnoji-dislokatsiji-is-185521.html
JoshRogin
Manafortliedon@meetthepress.HesaidnoonefromthecampaignworkedontheUkrainepartoftheplatform.Flat
outlie.
AnneApplebaum
Manafortspenthiscareerrepackagingdictators.WhyshouldhestoplyingjustbecausethisistheUS,notUkraine?
CyberShowdown.HowRussianHackingWorks
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-07-31/cyber-showdown?cid=soc-tw-rdr
CNNInternational
JulianAssangewontsaywhetherRussiaisbehindDNChackhttp://cnn.it/2afFntj
Yesterday:
PutinVisitsSlovenia
http://www.rferl.org/content/putin-seek-divide-slovenia-eu-on-sanctions-during-visit-july-30/27889575.html
...
"Russiaisconstantlytryingtofindawayaroundthesanctions,targetingcountriesitthinksaresofter.Theyaretrying
tokillthesanctionswithasoftapproach,"oneofthediplomatssaid.
ThediplomatssaidItaly,Greece,Hungary,Cyprus,Slovenia,Slovakia,andBulgariawereamongRussia'smain
targets...
Atthesmall,Orthodox-stylewoodenchurch,PutinsaidRussiawasreadytohelpstrengthensecurityinEuropeand
theworld...
Putin,AssadDoaChechnyaNumberonAleppo
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-williams2/putin-assad-do-a-chechnya_b_11283940.html?yptr=yahoo
...VladimirPutinsDefenseMinisterhasannouncedthatSyrianforcesloyalPresidentBasharal-Assadwilllet
civiliansleavethroughthreecorridors,andrebelsthroughanother,toescapebesiegeddistrictsofAleppo.Wehave
seenthismoviebefore.
ItisthesametacticRussianusedwhenitsairandgroundforceswerebesiegingGrozny,capitalofthebreakaway
provinceofChechnyabackin1999andearly2000,whiletryingtoflushoutIslamicrebelsfromthecity.This
permittedMoscowtodeclareGroznyafree-firezone,allthebettertobatterthealreadyruinedcityanddeallesswith
themessybusinessofkillingciviliansandfightingdoor-to-doorwithinsurgents...
FrenchCollaboratorsKissMonumenttoRussianInvadersofCrimea(photo)
31.07.16|HalyaCoynash
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1469924085
11FrenchMPs,mostlyfromNicolasSarkozysRepublicanParty,didnotmerelybreachUkrainianlawand
internationalsanctionsthroughtheirvisittoCrimeathisweekend.Theyalsotookpartinashamefulpropaganda
show,denyingflagranthumanrightsviolationsunderRussianoccupationandslanderingCrimeanTatarswhohave
beenabducted,andverylikelymurdered.

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Subject:JulianAssange,DonaldTrump,andVladimirPutin:ATroikaforOurInsaneEra-TheDailyBeast[ED:
FriendsreadthesectiononAssangeandCo.withparticularcare]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,GloriaHorbaty-NewEngland<gphorbaty@hotmail.com>,
mmshevchuk@aol.com,orysia<ukiebuzz@gmail.com>
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/01/julian-assange-donald-trump-and-vladimir-putin-a-troika-
for-our-insane-era.html
JulianAssange,DonaldTrump,andVladimir
Putin:ATroikaforOurInsaneEra
Itwouldalmostbeheart-warmingthatonemedia-obsessedmegalomaniachasfinallyfoundhisequalwereitnot
forthefactthatoneisnowwithin6percentagepointsoftheAmericanpresidencyandtheotherisJulian
Assange.
TheWikiLeaksfounderandeditorinchieftooktoCNNandNBCsMeetthePressthisweekendtoexplain
hisreasonforreleasingtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeshackedemailsandtoanswerquestionsabout
whethertheywereobtainedthroughtheRussianintelligenceservices.Inananswertothefirstquestion,Assange
toldAndersonCooperonFridayeveningthathefeltanobligationtoWikiLeaksreadersandthatthedecision
topublishtheemailsjusthoursbeforeHillaryClintonacceptedherpartysnominationwasindeedopportunistic.
Ifwepublishedafter,youcanjustimaginehowoutragedtheDemocraticvotingpopulationwouldhavebeen,
Assangesaid.Ithadtohavebeenbefore.
Verywell,then.Onthequestionofhowhisorganizationcameintopossessionofthisprivilegedcorrespondence,
AssangetoldCooperthathecantcommentonanythingthatmightreflectonsourcingtorulethingsinorrule
thingsout.SohewontsayifVladimirPutinsdomesticandmilitaryintelligenceagencieshackedtheDNC,as
agrowinglistofU.S.officials,independentcybersecurityanalysts,andnowClintonherselfbelieve,andasis
fartherfrombeingprovenhandedeverythingtheyfoundtoadigitalcollectiveostensiblycommittedtototal
transparency,forthepurposeofinfluencingaforeignelection.
AssangehasmadehiscontemptforClintonexplicit.InarecentinterviewwithBritishITVsRobertPeston,he
saidhebelievedtheformersecretaryofstatewastryingtohavehimindictedforpublishingU.S.diplomatic
cablesandmilitarydocumentsfiveyearsago.HealsochidedClintonforhersupportoftheLibyaintervention
andherrecordasaliberalwarhawk.OntheWikiLeakswebsite,hedescribedherasthecandidatefor
endless,stupidwar,writingthatClintonshouldntbeletnearagunshop,letaloneanarmy.Andshecertainly
shouldnotbecomepresidentoftheUnitedStates.
WhenPestonaskedaboutTrump,however,Assangewascagier,decliningtosaywhetherheprefersthe
Manhattanrealestatedeveloperasthenextcommanderinchief.Trump,hemerelysubmitted,iscompletely
unpredictableagainsttheknownquantitythatisClinton.
TherehasbeenasurfeitofdiscussionanddebateinthepresslatelyaboutTrumpsfinancialandpolitical
closenesstothePutinregime,muchofitcenteredonwhethertheGOPnomineeisaManchuriancandidatea
navel-gazingandpointlessexercise,asMikhailZygar,oneofRussiastopKremlinologists,moreorlessshowed
inPoliticolastweek.TrumpistheidealcandidateforPutinbecauseheis,intheKremlinsopinion,extremely
pragmatic,extremelyunprincipledandextremelycynicalwhichmakeshimeasiertoreachanunderstanding
with.NottomentionthatTrump,unlikeClintonandjustabouttheentirerestoftheWashingtonforeignpolicy
class,hasexplicitlyexpressedadmirationandsympathyforPutin.
TrumpcertainlycampaignsincreasinglyasifheholdsdearerPutinsnationalsecurityintereststhanhedoes
Americas.
Leaveasidethenow-ancientscandalaboutdefendingArticleVoftheAtlanticCharterintheeventthatBaltic
NATOalliesareinvadedbyRussia.Trumphasschizophrenicallycharacterizedapriorinvasionasbothnocause
forbilateraldiscomfortandontologicallyvoid.
AtapressconferenceonJuly27,followinghisownnominatingconvention,Trumpclaimedthathewillbe
lookingintowhethertheUnitedStatesshouldendsanctionsontheRussiaoveritsinvasionofaneighboring
countryandperhapsalsorecognizeCrimeaasRussianFederationterritory,apositionthatnotevenBeijinghas
broughtitselftoespouseowingtoitsownfearsofRussianmeddlingintheFarEast.
InaseparateinterviewjustdayslaterwithABCsGeorgeStephanopoulos,TrumpactuallydeniedthatRussian
soldiersarecurrentlyinUkraine,againstthelogicofhispriorstatementandallevidencetothecontrary
includingPutinsownbelatedadmissionabouttheseizureofCrimeathroughforcetwoyearsago.Moreover,
TrumpvowedthatPutinisnotgonnagointoUkraine,allright.Youcanmarkitdown.
AssangescuriousrelationshipwiththeRussiangovernmentisbotholderandmorefullyventilated,althoughits
worthreviewinginlightofhisreturntotheprime-timespotlightandrefusaltodisclaimthatPutinsspooksgave
himhislatestscoop.
WhereWikiLeaksmayhaveonceadvertiseditselfasacategoricalenemyofstateatrocities,hypocrisies,and
liesandoncedidindeeddoapublicserviceitnowbehavesasifithonorsthisnobleraison
detreselectively.IthadlittleregardforthemassivePanamaPapersdisclosuresofoffshoreasset-keeping,
muchofitbelongingtoKremlininsiders.Ittweeted,withoutevidence,wasfundedbytheU.S.government
throughUSAIDasanattackstoryonPutin.(Assangeiswidelybelievedtopersonallymantheorganizations
socialmediaaccount.)
Assangealsohadashort-livedtalkshowthatisbroadcastontheKremlin-fundedpropagandanetworkRT,
whichhasassiduouslypushedTrumpscandidacy.ThefirstguestwasHezbollahSecretary-GeneralHassan
Nasrallah,aU.S.-designatedterroristwhomanysympatheticTVpresentersinMiddleEasthavenotbeen
grantedaccesstobutRTsproducersmanagedtoreachinhishideawaybunkerinLebanonandbeamhis
chubbyvisageintoNorfolk,England,whereAssangestayedpriortohisarrivalattheEcuadorianembassyin
London,wherehehasbeenholedupsince2012,evadingextraditiontoSwedenonsexualassaultallegations.
NotthattheEcuadoriangovernmentisterriblyindulgentofitsguest.AccordingtothejournalFocusEcuador,
withinmonthsofAssangesasylumbeingissuedbyQuito,thecountrysintelligenceagencySENAINstarted
spyingonhimintheKnightsbridgeembassyinanoperationdubbedHotel.AccordingtoFocusEcuador,In
someinstances,[Assange]requestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidetheembassy,
suggestingtheuseofRussians.FortheSENAINagents,suchchoicewouldhavemeant,amongotherproblems,
thelossofcontroloftheEmbassyitselfleavingtheguestfreeaccesstocontrolandmanagetheflowof
information.Thereportevenassertsthatitwouldhavebeentheequivalentofacoupintheembassy.(Afull
Englishtranslationofthatarticlecanbefoundhere.)
Theperiodicaldidnotfurtherspeculateaboutwhysomeonesoconcernedwithbeingsafefromthelongreachof
governmentspiesandoperativeswasseekingtheprotectionofasecurityserviceknownfor
surveilling,kidnapping,andkillingitsowncitizens,bothathomeandabroad.
AssangehasalsosaiditwashisideaforEdwardSnowdentoseekasylumnotinEcuadorbutinRussia.He
preferredLatinAmerica,theAustraliansaidinAugust2015,butmyadvicewasthatheshouldtakeasylumin
RussiadespitethenegativePRconsequences,becausemyassessmentisthathehadasignificantriskhecould
bekidnappedfromLatinAmericaonCIAorders.Kidnappedorpossiblykilled.
AsproofthatWikiLeaksplayedaroleinorchestratingSnowdensasylumcase,Assangedispatchedoneofthe
organizationsrepresentatives,theBritishjournalistSarahHarrison,toaccompanytheformerNSAspyonhis
journeytoSheremetyevoAirportinMoscow.Harrisonalsoturnedupapressconferencewithhimthere.
ItremainsamysteryhowHarrisonwasgrantedavisatoMoscowwhenheremployerboastsofitsmissionof
stealingstatesecretsforpublicationandwheninvestigativejournalistsonforeignpassportswhodofarlessthan
thataredeniedentrytoRussiaorgetexpelledor,inextremecases,murdered.
WealsohaveWikiLeakssone-timecontentaggregatorinPutin-land,IsraelShamir,whosenamewas
conspicuouslyabsentonCNNuntilImentioneditonSaturday.
AstheorganizationsformerenlisteeJamesBallputintheGuardian,aself-styledRussianpeacecampaigner
withalonghistoryofantisemiticwriting,ShamirwasintroducedtotheteamunderthepseudonymAdam,andit
wasonlyseveralweeksafterhehadleftwithahugecacheofunredacted[U.S.StateDepartment]cables
thatmostofusstartedtofindoutwhohewas.
ThiswasaGooglesearchsworthofwork,really.Shamirsviewsseemtobothanticipateandunderscorethose
ofthealt-rightTrumpsupportwingonsocialmedia.DailyBeastcolumnistMichaelMoynihanablycatalogued
hisfascisminReasonmagazine.ShamirbelievesthatAuschwitzwasnotaNazideathcampbutratheraRed
Cross-overseeninternmentfacilitythatallMuslimsandChristiansareduty-boundtodenythattheShoahever
tookplacethatTheProtocolsoftheEldersofZionisnotadebunkedtsaristfabricationbutactuallyaJewish
manualforworlddominationandthatJewsthemselvesareavirusinhumanform.
Shamirsson,thefabulisthackJohannesWahlstrm,hasalsobeenidentifiedasWikiLeaksspokesmanin
Sweden.
Fatherandsonappeartohavefoundabosswhohashimselffloatedperilouslycloseintothesameorbitof
bigotedlunacy.AccordingtoIanHislop,theeditorofBritainsPrivateEye,Assangeaccusedthatvenerable
satiricalweeklyofbeingpartofaconspiracyledbytheGuardianwhichincludedjournalistDavidLeigh,
[former]editorAlanRusbridgerandJohnKampfnerfromIndexonCensorshipallofwhomareJewish.
(Infact,RusbridgerisnotJewish,butAssangeexplainedthatheneverthelessqualifiesasamemberofthetribe
bybeingthebrother-in-lawofDavidLeigh,anotherGuardianista,whois.)Assangedeniedsayinganysuch
things,buttheGuardianhadalreadylearnedthatitserstwhilemediapartnerhasarathercavalierattitudeabout
protectinginnocentsmentionedinclassifiedtextshedisseminates.AfghanswhoriskedTalibanreprisalsby
workingwithU.S.andNATOforceswereinformants,Assangehassaid,accordingtoLeighandLuke
Harding,aBritishreporterwhowaschuckedoutofRussiaforwritingtruthfullyaboutPutin.So,iftheyget
killed,theyvegotitcomingtothem.Theydeserveit.
WhichmakesitratheradorablethatAssangeinsistedtoBrianStelterthatWikiLeakshada10-yearrecordof
presentingtotallyaccurateinformationtothepublic.Somemembersofthepublichaveevengotadvance
copies.
InDecember2010,theodiousShamirwenttoBelaruswiththebundleofunredactedcablesBallmentioned,all
ofwhichweredraftedinMinsk.AccordingtojournalistKapilKomireddi,ShamirthenmetwithVladimir
Makei,thechiefofstaffofBelarusiandictatorAlexanderLukashenko,andturnedovereverythinghehad,
featuringthenamesofprominentBelarusiandissidentsandoppositionfigureswhohadmetwithU.S.diplomats
overtheyears.ThenShamirhungaroundtomonitorthecountrysforthcomingpresidentialelection,whichwas
asfreeandfairasyoudexpectinacountrywhosesecretpolicearestillknownastheKGB.Lukashenkoof
coursewon,with80percentofthevote,andimprisonedhisclosestrival,myfriendAndreiSannikov,who
wassubsequentlytorturedinjail.
AsKomireddinoted,Shamirshand-deliveryofcablestowhatwasthenanuncomplicatedpro-Putinsatellite
regimewasmoretobolsteracrackdownonpoliticalfreedomafterthefactratherthanfurnishanenemieslist.
SovietBelarus,astate-runnewspaper,Komireddiwrote,beganserializingwhatitclaimedtobeextracts
fromthecablesgiftedtoLukashenkobyShamir.Amongthefiguresexposedasrecipientsofforeigncashwere
Sannikov,thedefeatedoppositionpresidentialcandidateOlegBebenin,Sannikovspresssecretary,whowas
founddeadinsuspiciouscircumstancesmonthsbeforetheelectionsandVladimirNeklyayev,thewriterand
formerpresidentofBelarusPEN,whoalsoranagainstLukashenkoandisnowunderhousearrest.
Shamir,unsurprisingly,hasnothingbutpraiseforPutin.UkrainesEuromaidanrevolutionhecallsaNeocon-led
conspiracyinKievledbyBrownstorm-troopers.Healsojoyouslypresentstheshamreferendumheldin
occupiedCrimeaasalmostunanimouslyinfavorofjoiningRussia.
Thetrue,contradictoryresultofthatstage-managedplebiscitewerepostedtothewebsiteofPutinsown
HumanRightsCouncilbeforethevotetookplace.AndsinceRussianoccupation,Crimeahasbecomeamafia
stateletwhereactivistsarearrestedandtortured,andRussiassatrapyhasbannedtheindigenous
Tatarmajlis(orlegislature)andincarceratedseveralofthatantiqueMuslimcommunitysmostprominentfigures
ontheeveoftheanniversaryofStalins1944deportationandgenocideofCrimeanTatars,noless.
Inoureraofideologicalinsanity,Isupposeweshouldntbesurprisedthatabizarremind-meldhastakenplace
amongsuchatroikaofworld-historicalsolipsists:oneinchargeof11timezonesandmanynuclearweapons
oneconfinedtoaThirdWorldmissionandstillhungryforpressclippingsandonewhothinksthatwarsonly
existdependingonthetimeofdayandhisownparticularmood.NowwefindTrumpsurrogateson
CNNdenyingthatRussiaeverseizedCrimeainthefirstplace,whichexculpatestheKremlinfromany
unpleasantnessvisiteduponthepeninsula,whilePaulManafortsmilesandsaysheknowsnothingaboutRussian
hackersoranymoneytrailleadingfromthecampaignhemanagesbacktoMoscow.Anddontexpecttofind
one,Manafortadds,asTrumpwontbereleasinghistaxreturns,afterall.
Subject:Fwd:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad[AnEmergingTrumpDoctrine?]
To:WalterZarycki<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PaulGoble
<paul.goble@gmail.com>
Fyi
From:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad<jordan@gryphon-partners.com>
Date:August1,2016at10:32:42AMEDT
To:<howard@jamestown.org>
Subject:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad
Reply-To:OnBehalfofZalmayKhalilzad<jordan@gryphon-partners.com>
TheEmergingTrumpDoctrine?
ZalmayKhalilzad
July28,2016
TweetShareShare
Recentpresidentialcampaignshavenotfocusedonforeignpolicy.Thisyear
couldbedifferent.Thevolatilityoftheinternationalsystemhasincreasingly
becomeintertwinedwiththedomesticissuesthattendtodominate
presidentialelections.
ThecivilwarwithinIslamhasproducedtheworstinternationalterroristthreat
ofthemodernera:ISIS,orDaesh.Thisconflict,aswellasinstabilityin
Africa,hasalreadypushedmillionsofmigrantsintoEurope,whichhasgiven
risetogreaternationalismandthreatenstheEuropeanproject.Increasing
terroristattacksintheWestincludingtheUnitedStatescallintoquestion
currentcounterterrorismstrategies.
Atthesametime,slowgrowthandeconomicdislocationisproducinga
backlashagainstglobalization.Andagainstthebackdropofeconomic
stagnation,isolationistsentimentsinAmericaarehittinglevelsunseensince
theimmediatepost-Vietnamera.
Mostsignificant,amajorpresidentialcandidateischallengingfundamental
assumptionsaboutU.S.foreignpolicy.Consensusbehindanewgrand
strategydidnotquitecohereaftertheColdWar.Butpresidentialcandidates
since1992,whiledifferingontheirapproachestospecificissues,generally
agreedthattheU.S.-ledpostwararchitectureshouldbepreservedandthat
Americanleadershipwasnecessarytorespondselectivelytoglobalcrises
andtokeepthepeaceamongmajorpowers.
DonaldTrumpisdifferent.Trump'spronouncementsaremorethananattack
onHillaryClintonsworldview.Althoughstatedinprovocativeandunorthodox
ways,hetakesissuewithmanyofthetenetsthathaveguidedU.S.foreign
policyacrossbothRepublicanandDemocraticadministrationssincetheend
oftheColdWar.Whatwearewitnessingisnothinglessthanthebirthofa
TrumpDoctrine,onethatcallsforabreakfromthestatusquoonatleastfive
mainissues:U.S.goals,counteringtheterroristgroupISISandIslamist
extremism,democracypromotion,immigrationandgreat-powerrelations.
U.S.Goals:TrumpssloganAmericaFirstharkensbacktothe
isolationistsofthepre-WorldWarIIera.Trump,however,isnotan
isolationist.Quitethecontrary.Hefavorsalargedefensebudgetandwants
toensurethatAmericaremainstheworldssolemilitaryandeconomic
superpower.Rather,AmericaFirstisTrumpswayofattackingglobalism.
Theterm"globalism"encapsulates,forTrump,themyriadpoliciesthathe
believesareexpendingAmericanresourcesonbehalfofgoalsincidentalto
coreU.S.interests.
ItisintherealmofinternationaleconomicsinparticularthatTrumpis
soundingthealarmofglobalism.U.S.presidentssincetheendofWorldWar
IIhavetakentheviewthateconomicintegrationandfreetradearewin-win
propositionsthatbothfurtherglobalsecurityandbenefitAmericaninterests,
foreignanddomestic.TrumpsAmericaFirstviewismorezero-sumand
nationalistic.HebelievesthattheUnitedStatesnaivelypracticesfreetrade
whileothercountriesgainundueadvantagethroughmercantilistpractices.
HebelievesmanytradeagreementshavedamagedAmericanegatively
affectingU.S.workersandthemiddleclassbyfacilitatingmovementof
manufacturingjobsfromtheUnitedStatestoothercountriessuchasChina
andMexico.Hebelievesthattheseandrelatedpoliciesareproducingslow
economicgrowth,hugedebtandunderminingtheunderpinningsofU.S
economicpower.
TrumpisintentonprioritizingU.S.economicinterests.He,forexample,will
renegotiateNAFTAandabandonthecurrenttextoftheTrans-Pacific
PartnershipinordertoreassertU.S.sovereigntyandprotectandexpand
U.S.manufacturingandemployment.
CounteringISISandIslamicExtremism:Trumpappearstoseethethreat
ofISISandIslamistextremismasurgentandtheprincipalcurrentthreatto
theUnitedStates.HebelievesthatPresidentObamaandcandidateClinton
failtorecognizethenatureoftheproblemthatISISandal-Qaidaare
Islamistterroristgroupsandacceptthatwehavetolivewiththethreatis
unacceptable.HehassaidthataTrumpadministrationwillseektodefeat
ISISquicklyandtoeliminateitsthreattotheUnitedStates,rejectingthe
notionthatweshouldlearntolivewiththethreat.HewantsU.S.alliancesto
focusonthethreatofIslamistterrorismandalsoiswillingtocooperatewith
Russiatodefeatit.HeiswillingtousemoreU.S.forcesandtoadoptmore
aggressivetactics.Heappearstofavorusingalotofforceagainstterrorist
targetsintheMiddleEastbutthengetoutratherthanmaintainasignificant
roleonthegroundforyears.HealsowantstoreviewU.S.immigrationand
visapolicyaswelldomesticlawenforcementpoliciestodealwiththisthreat.
Immigration:Trumpalsodepartsfromtheestablishmentonbothlegaland
illegalimmigration.Hewantstobreakthecycleofmillionsofillegals
becominglegalizedeveryfewdecadesindealsthatincludecommitmentsto
controlillegalimmigrationcommitmentsthatalwaysgounfulfilled.Hisoften
usedimageryofawallexpressesthedeterminationtobreakthatcycleby
whatevermeansarenecessary.
Onlegalimmigration,itappearsthatTrumpwouldliketoreducetheflowand
perhapschangethecriteriaforwhowouldbeadmitted.Hearguesthat
reducingandchangingcriteriaforlegalimmigrationwouldresultin
increasedemploymentforAmericansandlegalresidents,particularlyinthe
lowerendoftheincomespectrum.HisconcernsaboutISISusingflowsof
refugeestoinfiltrateterroristsintotheUnitedStatesledhimtocallfor
suspendingvisasforallMuslimsuntilaprocesswasestablishedforreliable
vetting,whichlaterhemodifiedtotemporarilysuspendingadmissionof
visitorsandimmigrantsfromterror-afflictedcountries.
TrumpappearstofearEuropesproblemsreplicatingthemselvesinthe
UnitedStates.InEurope,thecontinentisinthemidstofapotentially
dangerousparadigmshift.Accordingtosomeestimates,morethan700,000
AfricansarewaitinginLibyatomovetoEurope,withmillionsmorelikelyto
followtheirpathgivenpopulationgrowthandeconomicandpoliticalcriseson
thecontinent.Thiscouldeventuallydwarfthealreadydestabilizingcurrent
andfutureflowsfromconflictsintheMiddleEastandSouthAsia.Thiswould
inevitablyhavehugeimpactsindomesticpoliticsandsecurityinEurope.
Great-PowerRelations:Trumpisenvisioninganeweraofgreat-power
relations.HefavorsalesstruculentapproachtoRussiathanHillaryClinton.
WhileotherpresidentshavepursuedcommonunderstandingswithMoscow,
Trumpenvisionsperhapsamoresweepingparadigmshiftandperhapsa
newgrandbargain:acceptanceofsomekindofasphereofinfluencefor
MoscowinpartsofitsimmediateneighborhoodinexchangeforRussian
cooperationonissuesimportanttotheUnitedStateswithregardstowaron
terror,Syria,andtheAsianbalanceofpower.InhisviewofRussia,hemay
beclosertoPresidentFranklinDelanoRooseveltsattitudetowardtheSoviet
UnionthantheapproachofanysubsequentAmericanpresident.
DuetostrongpressurefromTrumpcampaignofficials,forexample,the
Republicanplatformdroppedanendorsementoftheprovisionoflethal
defensivearmsandassistancetoUkraine.Trumpsrecentstatementthat
calledintoquestionAmericasguaranteetoNATOalliesunderArticleVif
theyarenotmeetingtheirowndefenseobligationscreatedafuror.Trump
madeitclearthathewantstouseitasabargainingtooltoforcealliestopay
fortheirdefense,andhasalsostatedthathewantstopreserveNATO.
WithChina,bycontrast,theTrumpDoctrinewouldpursueamuchharder
line.HehaspromisedtoplaceChinaseconomicpracticesitsalleged
currencymanipulation,lackofintellectual-propertyprotections,and
economicespionageatthecenterofthebilateralrelationship.Economic
pressure,Trumpbelieves,wouldnotonlyaddressU.S.domesticconcerns
suchasthelossofmanufacturingjobsitwouldalsoprovideameansby
whichWashingtoncouldelicitChinesecooperationonsecurityconcerns
suchastheNorthKoreannuclearprogram.
Great-powerrelationsmayalsoshiftinthecontextofU.S.relationswithits
traditionalallies.TrumpishardlythefirstAmericanpoliticalfiguretogripe
aboutourallies'free-riding.WhatdistinguishesTrump,however,isthe
degreetowhichheisconsumedwiththeissue.WhileU.S.presidentshave
tendedtoacceptfreeloadingasapriceworthpayingforanetworkof
alliancesthatunderwritesinternationalsecurityandpreservesU.S.global
leadership,TrumpispreparedtowieldU.S.leveragetoensurethatU.S.
alliancespaytheirfairshare.
DemocracyPromotion:ParticularlysincetheReaganyears,democracy
promotionhasbecomeacentraltenetofU.S.foreignpolicy.Policymakers
havegenerallyreachedtheconclusionthatthespreadofdemocracyand
humanrightsisnotonlyconsistentwithAmericanideals,butalsocontributes
toamorepeacefulworld.WhenmilitaryoperationsinAfghanistanandIraq
wereundertakentooverthrowregimesposingserioussecurityproblems,
bipartisancoalitionssupportedtheinstallationofdemocraticgovernmentsto
reestablishpoliticalauthority.Theconsensuswasthatdemocraticidealshave
universalappealandcantakeholdacrosscountriesandregionswith
differenthistoriesandcultures.
WhenTrumpalludestodemocracypromotion,hedoessomostlyinthe
contextofhissharpattacksonnation-buildingandregimechange.Inhis
RepublicanNationalConventionspeech,forexample,helambastedtheU.S.
decisiontosupporttheoverthrowofdictatorshipsinIraq,Libya,Egyptand
Syria,arguingthattheseeffortsunderminedstabilityandU.S.
counterterrorismpriorities.Trumppledgedunequivocallytoabandonthe
failedpolicyofnationbuildingandregimechange.
Trumpisraisingseriousissuesthatdeservetobedebated.Howprecisely
wouldhepursuehisvisionatapracticallevel,andhowwouldheminimize
thenegative,perhapsunintended,consequencesofhisproposals?
Achievinggreaterburdensharingandfocusingouralliancesoncurrent
threatswouldbepositive.However,thechallengeishowtoachievethisgoal
withoutshakingconfidenceintheUnitedStates.Itisclearthatourcurrent
approachhasnotachievedtherightbalancebothonupdatingthealliances
andonburdensharing.Butthereistheriskthatunderminingconfidencein
theUnitedStatesanditsalliancescouldproducescenariossuchas
renationalizationofsecuritypoliciesbygreatpowers,similartothesituation
beforeWorldWarII,includingthenuclearizationofalliedcountries.
Trumphasexpressedsympathy,ifnotoutrightsupport,fornationalistforces
inEurope.Buthehasnotexplainedhowthesetrendswillredoundtothe
benefitoftheUnitedStates.ItwouldnotserveU.S.interestsforthenext
administrationtoexacerbatexenophobicsentimentsontheContinentthrough
protectionismandincendiaryrhetoricaboutburdensharing.
RevisionistpowerssuchasRussiaandChinawouldbecomemore
aggressiveasU.S.-ledalliancesweakenbecausetheylosecredibility.What
wouldaTrumpadministrationdotominimizesuchthreats?
EvenwithamoreaccommodatingpolicytowardRussia,wehavetoavoid
underminingrelationswithEuropeanalliesandcompromisingthesovereignty
ofstatessuchasUkraineandGeorgia.FarfrombeingapathwaytoU.S.-
Russiacooperation,thereistheriskthattheTrumpDoctrinesstepback
fromUkrainecouldopenthedoortofurtherincursionsbyRussiaagainstits
Europeanneighbors.
GiventhecurrentChineseleaderspushforregionalhegemony,theUnited
StatesneedsabalanceofpowerapproachinAsiansecuritywithJapan,
India,Vietnamandotherregionalpowerplayingabalancingroleandthe
U.S.astheultimatebalancer.HowwouldaTrumpadministrationengineer
thisbalance?
AfterWorldWarII,theUnitedStatesunderwentaparadigmshiftinits
foreignpoliciesremainingdeeplyengagedinunstableregionstomaintain
great-powerpeace.Todevelopthedetailsofthisnewparadigm,theTruman
andEisenhoweradministrationsdevelopedsomeofthemostimportant
internalandexternalinstitutionsoftheColdWarera.Theyalsoengagedin
bipartisandeliberationsinvolvingleadersofboththeexecutiveandlegislative
branches,drawingonexpertisefrominsideandoutsideofgovernment.Such
aprocesstoarriveatabipartisanconsensusisnecessaryregardlessofwho
becomesourPresident.
Trumpscritiqueoffreetradehasitsmerits.Ittakesinordinatetimeand
expenseforAmericanfirmstodocumentandlitigateunfairtradepractices
suchasdumpingunderthecurrentprocess.Theriskisthatbythetimethey
secureajudgment,theirmercantilistcompetitorshaveharmedthem
irreparably.Andtherehasbeennoresponsetotheproblemofcurrency
manipulation.However,Trumpneedstoarticulatehowhewoulddesigna
moreeffectiveenforcementprocessfortradeagreementsandhowhewould
avoidroundsoftit-for-tatretaliationleadingtotradewars.Asmanyhave
said,Americahas5percentoftheworldspopulation,anditsprosperity
dependsonsellingtotheother95percent.
Onimmigration,itiscertainlytimeforareviewofnotonlywhomweallow
intothecountry,butwhoespeciallywewishtoattractthebestandthe
brightestfromaroundtheworldandindividualswhosubscribetoAmericas
corevalues.Anupdatedimmigrationstrategyisrequired,andcontrolofthe
borderandwhocomestothecountryisalsoamust,asisdevelopinga
systemtopolicevisaoverstays.Theglobalpopulationmovementmakesthis
necessary.WeneedtoworktogetherwithourEuropeanalliestoassistthem
indevelopingappropriatestrategiesforthecomingpotentialfloodof
refugeesandthefutureofAfricaasanurgentmatter.
Yet,Trumpssometimesinflammatoryrhetorichasunderminedhisabilityto
workwithallgroupsinAmericansocietyonthisquestion.Asacandidate
and,ifhewins,asapresident,hemustshedthisdivisiveapproach,whichis
counterproductivetofindingtheneededconsensusonawayforward.
Ondemocracypromotion,Ijudgethatthegoalofademocratizedworldasa
long-termobjectiveremainsvalid.Buthowthisgoalispursued,especially
givenrecentsetbacks,isanimportantquestion.Itneedstobedebated
recognizingthattheprocessofbuildinganeffectiveliberaldemocracytakes
timeasitdidinourowncountry.Thepathtoopenpoliticalsystemswill
varyaccordingtothedifferenthistories,cultures,andcircumstancesofour
partners.Itrequiresustoworkpatientlywithleadersandsocietiesof
aspiringdemocraciesandnottoabandonthemwhentheyexperience
setbacks.
Onstrategyandtactics,perhapsadifferentiatedapproachwouldbethe
best.Weshouldemphasizestabilityandconflictresolutioninplacessuchas
theMiddleEastandAfrica.Weshouldworktoconsolidatedemocratization
inotherregionssuchaspartsofEurope,partsofAsiaandtheAmericas,
wheredemocraticinstitutionshavefaltered.Also,itwouldbebeneficialto
reviewwhetherourinstitutionsinvolvedindemocracybuildingareeffective
andmakethenecessaryreforms.
OncounteringIslamistterrorism,notwithstandinghisrefusaltoengagein
nation-buildingandkeeptogetinvolvedinprotractedconflictandpolicing,
TrumphasvowedtodestroyISISwithinamatterofmonths.Ifhisintentisto
liberateISIS-heldareassuchasMosulinIraqandRaqqainSyria,the
questionishowhewilldoso.AgoodoptionistofollowtheAfghanmodel,
embeddingU.S.andcoalitionSpecialForceswithlocalfightersandapplying
significantairpoweragainstISIStargets.However,thequestionofwhat
happenstotheareasliberatedfromISISmustbeanswered.How,without
state-buildingandnewpower-sharingarrangementsinIraqandSyria,would
aTrumpadministrationpreventsegmentsoftheSunniArabpopulationfrom
gravitatingtoyetanother(andperhapsevenmorevicious)terroristgroup?
Afterall,ISISisthesuccessortotheterroristgroupAlQaedainIraq.There
isalsothebroaderquestionofhowtochangefailedpoliciesindealingwith
statesponsorsofterroristandextremistgroupssuchasPakistan.
Evenifweavoidlargestate-andnation-buildingprojectssuchasIraqand
Afghanistan,weneedtopreservethecapacity,acquiredatenormouscost
basedonexperienceinIraqandAfghanistan,toassistinlimitedstate
buildingtohelpfriendlyforcescontrolterritorieswhichhavestrategicvalue.
NotdoingsowouldmeanoverlearningthelessonsofIraqandAfghanistan
andriskcreatingvacuumsinwhichterroristscouldestablishsanctuaries.
Suchamistake,inturn,mightrequirealargerinterventionandoccupationof
suchterritoriestorootoutterroristforces,ashappenedafter9/11.
TheobjectiveofgettingRussiatoworkwithustodefeatISISisdesirable
butthereisnoguaranteethatMoscowwilldoso.Previouseffortsat
achievingU.S.-RussiancooperationbyBushandObamaadministrations
havenotsucceeded.WhatisthebasisforTrumpsconfidencethathewill
succeedifandwhenheistheU.S.president?
ItisimperativethattheTrumpcampaignnotleavethesequestions
unanswered.ThisisbecauseTrumpsfundamentalcritiquehasmerit:
Americaschallengesathomedrivenbyunprecedenteddebt,weak
economicgrowth,racialandclassdivisions,andgrowingeconomic
inequalitydoindeedthreatenU.S.primacyabroad.Hehasraisedthese
issuesinauniquelyprovocativemanner.Hisboldnessmustnowbematched
withwisesolutions.
TrumpspeaksformillionsofAmericanswithhisunfetteredattacksonan
establishmentthathas,infact,madeitsshareoferrors.Forthis,hehas
beenawardedtheRepublicannominationforpresident.Now,justthree
monthsbeforehispossibleelectionasCommanderinChief,hehasour
attention.Itistimeforhimtopivottoamoreseriousdialoguewithmore
detailsonhowtodealwiththeseissues.Regardlessoftheoutcomeofthe
generalelection,theissuesthathehasraisedandthesentimentstowhich
hehaslenthisvoicearenotgoingaway.
ZalmayKhalilzadisaCounseloratCSIS.HewastheUSAmbassadorin
Afghanistan,IraqandtheUN.Heistheauthorofanewbook:TheEnvoy:
FromKabultotheWhiteHouse:MyJourneythroughaTurbulentWorld.St
Martin'sPress.
followonTwitter|friendonFacebook|forwardtoafriend
unsubscribefromthislist|updatesubscriptionpreferences
Senttime: 07/26/201605:46:54AM
apologiesifIsentthisonealready--amabitconfused....
To:KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>CooperJulian<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>
carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se><teagueeliza@aol.com><teagueeliza@aol.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnolly<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>Phil<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>Roderic&Mandy
Lyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>KlausSegbersFU<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>
FriedErc<ErcFried@aol.com>RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>SiriolHugh-Jones<siriolhj@yahoo.co.uk>
CC:DG<davidjeglass@gmail.com>BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>
Sent:Tue,26Jul20161:52
Subject:Re:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmericanPresident
Speakingofspecialrelationships,youmightbeinterestedinthispiecefromtheGuardian'sChiefSportsCorrespondent
-http://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/jul/25/rio-olympics-russia-drugs-vladimir-putin-ioc
Bobo
OnTuesday,26July2016,0:10,KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>wrote:
SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaksto

TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallyaThing
By JOSHMARSHALL Published JULY23,2016,4:15PMEDT
Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrainabouttheseemingbromancebetween
DonaldTrumpandRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Moreseriously,butrelatedly,many
believeTrumpisanadmirerandwould-beemulatorofPutin'sincreasinglyautocraticand
illiberalrule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ataminimum,Trumpappearstohave
adeepfinancialdependenceonRussianmoneyfrompersonsclosetoPutin.Andthisis
matchedtoaconspicuoussolicitousnesstoRussianforeignpolicyinterestswheretheycome
intoconflictwithUSpolicieswhichgobackdecadesthroughadministrationsofbothparties.
Thereisalsosomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofevidence
suggestingPutin-backedfinancialsupportforTrumporanon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwo
men.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.IhavelongbeenskepticalofUSeffortstoextend
securityguaranteestocountrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir'nearabroad'or
extendsuchguaranteesandpoliceRussianinteractionswithnewstateswhichforcenturies
werepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.Thisisn'tamatterofindifferenceto
thesecountries.Itisbasedonmybeliefinseriouslythinkingthroughthepotentialcostsof
suchpolicies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,thosecountriesarenowpartofNATO.Security
commitmentshavebeenmadewhichabsolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemanyother
areaswheresuchcommitmentshavenotbeenmade.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonot
cometothisquestionorthesepoliciesassomeonelookingforconfrontationorcoldrelations
withRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussianmoneyflowingintoTrump'scoffers
andheisconspicuouslysolicitousofRussianforeignpolicypriorities.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,hisdebtloadhasgrowndramatically
overthelastyear,from$350millionto$630million.Thisisinjustoneyearwhilehisliquid
assetshavealsodecreased.TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyreliantonmoneyfromRussia,mostofwhichhas
overtheyearsbecomeincreasinglyconcentratedamongoligarchsandsub-garchscloseto
VladimirPutin.Here'sagoodoverviewfromTheWashingtonPost,withonemorselfor
illustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamilymembershavemadenumeroustripsto
Moscowinsearchofbusinessopportunities,andtheyhavereliedonRussian
investorstobuytheirpropertiesaroundtheworld.
Russiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-sectionofalotofour
assets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,toldarealestateconferencein2008,
accordingtoanaccountpostedonthewebsiteofeTurboNews,atrade
publication.WeseealotofmoneypouringinfromRussia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentinManhattan,oneofTrump'slargest
recentendeavors.Theprojectwashitwithaseriesoflawsuitsinresponsetosometypically
Trumpianeffortstodefraudinvestorsbymakingfraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancialhealth
oftheproject.Emergingoutofthatlitigationhoweverwasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfor
theprojectfromRussiaandKazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheprojecthasfocusedonthe
presenceofatwiceimprisonedRussianimmigrantwithextensivetiestotheRussiancriminal
underworld.Butthat'snotthemostsalientpartofthestory.AstheTimesputit,
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50millioninvestmentinTrumpSoHoandthreeother
BayrockprojectsbyanIcelandicfirmpreferredbywealthyRussiansinfavor
withPresidentVladimirV.Putin,accordingtoalawsuitagainstBayrockby
oneofitsformerexecutives.TheIcelandiccompany,FLGroup,wasidentified
inaBayrockinvestorpresentationasastrategicpartner,alongwith
AlexanderMashkevich,abillionaireoncechargedinacorruptioncase
involvingfeespaidbyaBelgiancompanyseekingbusinessinKazakhstanthat
casewassettledwithnoadmissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceivedunexplainedinfusionsofcashfrom
accountsinKazakhstanandRussia."
Readbotharticles:AfterhisbankruptcyandbusinessfailuresroughlyadecadeagoTrump
hashadanincreasinglydifficulttimefindingsourcesofcapitalfornewinvestments.AsI
notedabove,TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbankswiththeexceptionof
Deutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwithamajorUSpresence.Hehassteadied
andrebuilthisfinancialempirewithaheavyrelianceoncapitalfromRussia.Ataminimum
theTrumporganizationisreceivinglotsofinvestmentcapitalfrompeopleclosetoVladimir
Putin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhisconnectionstoanddependenceon
RussiancapitalalignedwithPutin.Andincaseyou'rekeepingscoreathome:no,that'snot
reassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal'campaignchair'whonowfunctionsas
campaignmanagerandtopadvisor.Manafortspentmostofthelastdecadeastopcampaign
andcommunicationsadvisorforViktorYanukovych,thepro-RussianUkrainianPrime
MinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledtotheon-goingcrisisandproxywarin
Ukraine.YanukovychwasandremainsaclosePutinally.ManafortisrunningTrump's
campaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEuropeisCarterPage,amanwhoseentire
professionalcareerhasrevolvedaroundinvestmentsinRussiaandwhohasdeepand
continuingfinancialandemploymenttiestoGazprom.Ifyou'renotfamiliarwithGazprom,
imagineifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywererolledupintoasinglecompanyandit
werepersonallycontrolledbytheUSPresidentwhouseditasasourceofrevenueand
patronage.ThatisGazprom'sroleintheRussianpoliticalandeconomicsystem.Itisno
exaggerationtosaythatyoucannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromattheveryhighlevelwhich
PagehasbeenwithoutbeingwhollyinalignmentwithPutin'spolicies.Thosetiesalsoallow
PutintoputPageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,PutinhasalignedallRussianstatecontrolledmediabehind
Trump.AsFrankFoerexplainshere,thisfitsapatternwithhowPutinhassoughttopropup
rightist/nationalistpoliticiansacrossEurope,oftenwithdirectorcovertinfusionsofmoney.
InsomecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-backedpoliciesinothersitissimply
becausetheysowdiscordinWesternalignedstates.Ofcourse,Trumphasrepeatedlypraised
Putin,notonlyintheabstractbutoftenfortheauthoritarianpoliciesandpatternsof
governmentwhichhavemostsouredhisreputationaroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofahandfulofdevelopmentsthattipped
mefromseeingallthisasjustapartofTrump'slargershadinesstosomethingmorespecific
andominousabouttherelationshipbetweenPutinandTrump.AsTPM'sTierney
Sneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduringdynamicsofGOPconventions
(there'sacomparabledynamicontheDemside)ismoremainstreamnomineesbattling
conservativeactivistsoverthepartyplatform,withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardline
ideologicalboxesandthenomineestryingtosoftenmostorallofthoseedges.Thisisone
thingthatmadetheTrumpconventionverydifferent.TheTrumpCampwastotally
indifferenttotheplatform.Sopartyactivistswereabletowriteoneofthemostconservative
platformsinhistory.NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimplydidn'tcare.Withone
bigexception:Trump'steammobilizedthenominee'straditionalmixofcajolingandstrong-
armingononepoint:changingthepartyplatformonassistancetoUkraineagainstRussian
militaryoperationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth(andit'snotworthmuch)Iam
quiteskepticalofmostRepublicanscallforaggressivelyarmingUkrainetoresistRussian
aggression.Butthesingle-mindednessofthisfocusonthisoneissue-inthecontextoftotal
indifferencetoeverythingelseintheplatform-speaksvolumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepayofRussiaorPutin.Itcanjustas
easilybeexplainedbyhavingmanyofhistopadvisorshavingspentyearsworkinginPutin's
orbitandbeingalignedwithhisthinkingandagenda.Butitiscertainlynocoincidence.Again,
inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetotheplatformandwillingnesstoletpartyactivists
writeitinanywaytheywant,histeamzeroedinononefairlyobscureplanktoexert
maximumforceanditjusthappenstobetheonemostimportanttoPutinintermsofUS
policy.
AddtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicystatementstracknotonlywithPutin's
positionsbutthoseinwhichPutinismostintenselyinterested.AsidefromUkraine,Trump's
suggestionthattheUSandthusNATOmightnotcometothedefenseofNATOmember
statesintheBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionisacaseinpoint.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabouthackingandallmannerofother
mysteries.Butthosepointsarehighlyspeculative,somevergingonconspiratorialintheir
thinking.IignorethemherebecauseI'vewantedtofocusonunimpeachable,undisputedand
publiclyknownfacts.Thesealonepaintastarkandhighlytroublingpicture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinweresimplytheCEOofamajorAmerican
corporationandtherewasthismuchmoneyflowinginTrump'sdirection,combined
withthismuchsolicitousnessofPutin'spolicyagenda,itwouldsetoffalarmbellsgalore.
Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutinisnottheCEOofanAmerican
corporation.He'stheautocratwhorulesaforeignstate,withanincreasinglyhostileposture
towardstheUnitedStatesandasubstantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakesinvolved
infindingout'what'sgoingon'asTrumpmightputitarequiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofcircumstantialevidence
forafinancialrelationshipbetweenTrumpandPutinoranon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwo
men.Evenifyoudrawnoadverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancialempireisheavilyleveraged
andhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusionsfromoligarchsandothersourcesofwealth
alignedwithPutin.That'ssimplynotsomethingthatcanbewavedofforignored.
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2016/07/how-putin-weaponized-wikileaks-
influence-election-american-president/130163/?&utm_term=Editorial%20-
HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaksto
InfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
EvidencesuggeststhataRussianintelligencegroupwasthesourceof
themostrecentWikileaksinteldump,whichwasaimedtoinfluence
theU.S.election
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
CloseyoureyesandimaginethatahackinggroupbackedbyRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinbrokeintotheemailsystemofamajorU.S.political
party.Thegroupstolethousandsofsensitivemessagesandthenpublished
themthroughanobligingthirdpartyinawaythatwasstrategicallytimedto
influencetheUnitedStatespresidentialelection.Nowopenyoureyes,because
thatswhatjusthappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emailsstolenfromtheDemocratic
NationalCommittee.Theyreveal,amongotherthings,thuggishinfighting,
apushbyatopDNCofficialtouseBernieSandersreligiousconvictions
againsthimintheSouth,andattemptstostrong-armmediaoutlets.In
otherwords,theyrevealtheWashingtoncampaignmonsterforwhatitis.
ButleaveasidethepurportedcontentoftheWikileaksdatadump(towhich
numerousotheroutletshavedevotedconsiderableattention)andconsiderthe
source.ConsiderableevidenceshowsthattheWikileaksdumpwasan
orchestratedactbytheRussiangovernment,workingthroughproxies,to
undermineHillaryClintonsPresidentialcampaign.
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.Theonlyrationaletoreleasesuch
datafromtheRussianbulletproofhostwastoempoweronecandidateagainst
another.TheColdWarisaliveandwell,TomKellermann,theCEOof
StrategicCyberVenturestoldDefenseOne.
Receivedailyemailupdates: cybersecuritycompanyCrowdStrike,
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. undercontractwiththeDNC,
Bethefirsttoreceiveupdates. announcedinablogpostthattwo
separateRussianintelligencegroups
hadgainedaccesstotheDNCnetwork.Onegroup,FANCYBEARorAPT28,
gainedaccessinApril.Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalledCozyDuke
andAPT29)firstbreachedthenetworkinthesummerof2015.
CybersecuritycompanyFireEyefirstdiscoveredAPT29in2014andwas
quicktopointoutaclearKremlinconnection.WesuspecttheRussian
governmentsponsorsthegroupbecauseoftheorganizationsittargetsandthe
dataitsteals.Additionally,APT29appearedtoceaseoperationsonRussian
holidays,andtheirworkhoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3timezone,
whichcontainscitiessuchasMoscowandSt.Petersburg,theywroteintheir
reportonthegroup.OtherU.S.officialshavesaidthatthegrouplookslike
ithassponsorshipfromtheRussiangovernmentdueinlargeparttothelevel
ofsophisticationbehindthegroupsattacks.
ItsthesamegroupthathittheState TheColdWarisaliveandwell
Department,theWhiteHouse, TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
andthecivilianemailoftheJoint
ChiefsofStaff.Thegroupsmodusoperandi(aspearphishingattackthat
uploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstoolonthetargetscomputer)iswell
knowntocyber-securityresearchers.
InhisblogpostontheDNCbreachesCrowdStrikesCTODmitri
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsofexperiencewithbothoftheseactors
attemptingtotargetourcustomersinthepastandknowthemwell.Infact,our
teamconsidersthemsomeofthebestadversariesoutofallthenumerous
nation-state,criminalandhacktivist/terroristgroupsweencounteronadaily
basis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,operationalsecuritysecondtononeandthe
extensiveusageofliving-off-the-landtechniquesenablesthemtoeasily
bypassmanysecuritysolutionstheyencounter.
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimselfGuccifer2.0claimedtobethe
culpritbehindthebreachandreleasedkeydocumentstobackupthe
claim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
Related:WhattheJointChiefsEmailHackTellsUsAbout
theDNCBreach
Related:TheUkrainianBlackoutandtheFutureofWar
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,writing:theseclaimsdonothing
tolessenourfindingsrelatingtotheRussiangovernmentsinvolvement,
portionsofwhichwehavedocumentedforthepublicandthegreater
securitycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependentanalysisandreachedthesame
conclusion.ThegroupFidelisundertooktheirowninvestigationandfound
Crowdstriketobecorrect.
ATwitterusernamed@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthemetadataonthe
docsthatGuccifer2.0providedinhisblogpostandfoundliteral
Russiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodinatArsTechnica.Giventhe
evidencecombinedwitheverythingelse,Ithinkitsastrongattributiontoone
oftheRussianintelligenceagencies,@PwnAllTheThingsremarked
toMotherboard.
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-Bicchieraiactuallyconversedwith
Guccifer2.0overTwitter.Thehacker,whoclaimedtobeRomanian,answered
questionsinshortsentencesthatwerefilledwithmistakesaccordingto
severalRomaniannativespeakers,Bicchierifound.
AlargebodyofevidencesuggeststhatGuccifer2.0isasmokescreenthatthe
actualculpritsemployedtohidetheirinvolvementinthebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussianinformationandinfluenceoperations.
Russianpropagandistshavebeencaughthiringactorstoportrayvictimsof
manufacturedatrocitiesorcrimesfornewsreports(aswasthecasewhen
ViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohavebeenattackedbySyrianrefugeesin
GermanyforRussiasZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-scenenewsreporting
(asshowninaleakedvideoinwhichreporterMariaKatasonovaisrevealed
tobeinadarkenedroomwithexplosionsoundsplayinginthebackground
ratherthanonabattlefieldinDonetskwhenalightisswitchedonduringthe
recording),notesaRANDreportfromearlierinJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatformservedtolegitimizethe
informationdump,whichalsocontainsalargeamountofpersonal
informationrelatedtodemocraticdonorssuchassocialsecurityandcredit
cardnumbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaksdidntperformathoroughanalysis
ofthedocumentsbeforetheyreleasedthem,orsimplydidntcare.
ItsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthatinformationsecurityresearcherBruce
SchneiercallsorganizationaldoxingandthatLawfaresNicholasWeaver
callstheweaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priortotheDNCincident,wasthe
June2015thepublicationofseveralsetsofNSArecordsrelatedto
governmentintelligencecollectiontargets
inFrance,Japan,BrazilandGermany.Thedataitselfwasnot
remarkable,butitdidharmU.S.relationsandmayhave
compromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaksdoesntseemtocarethattheyare
beingusedasaweaponbyunknownparties,insteadcallingthemselvesa
libraryofmasseducation.Buttherestofusshould,Weaverwrites.
TheevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthatPutinusedtogreateffect
lastweek.
Senttime: 07/26/201605:12:34AM
thiscouldgoonforsometime...
To:KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>
CC:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>carolinavendilpallin
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se><teagueeliza@aol.com><teagueeliza@aol.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>Phil<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>Roderic&Mandy
SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>SiriolHugh-Jones<siriolhj@yahoo.co.uk>DG<davidjeglass@gmail.com>
AninterestingpiecefromJuliaIoffe-http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/25/is-trump-a-russian-stooge-putin-dnc-wikileaks/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=New%20Campaign&utm_term=%2ASituation%20Report
OnTuesday,26July2016,10:05,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>wrote:
Justtobeclear,Ithinkhewouldbeadisasterforallofus-includingRussia!Hewouldbringamercurial'quality'thatevenVVPwould
struggletomanage.
Hmm...soTrumpistheLesserEvil.
SentfrommyiPhone
On26Jul2016,at6:50PM,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>wrote:
Perhapsparadoxically,IfeelPutinmightactuallyfindHillaryeasiertodealwith-knownquantity,predictablebehavior,
reasonablyclearlinesofengagementandlimitation.Trump,ontheotherhand,couldbeanightmarefortheKremlin-not
justondiscreteissues,butforthesheerchaosanduncertaintyhispresidencywouldbring.
OnTuesday,26July2016,9:42,JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>wrote:
Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-hawks%E2%80%99-election-strategy-pushing-new-cold-war-17113

Julian

To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulianCoopercarolinavendilpallin<teagueeliza@aol.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>
RichardConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyneJohnBesemeresKlausSegbersFUFriedErcRodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmerican
President

SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad


TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallya
Thing
ByJOSHMARSHALLPublishedJULY23,2016,4:15PMEDT

Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrainabouttheseemingbromance
betweenDonaldTrumpandRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Moreseriously,but
relatedly,manybelieveTrumpisanadmirerandwould-beemulatorofPutin's
increasinglyautocraticandilliberalrule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ata
minimum,TrumpappearstohaveadeepfinancialdependenceonRussianmoney
frompersonsclosetoPutin.Andthisismatchedtoaconspicuoussolicitousnessto
RussianforeignpolicyinterestswheretheycomeintoconflictwithUSpolicies
whichgobackdecadesthroughadministrationsofbothparties.Thereisalso
somethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofevidencesuggesting
Putin-backedfinancialsupportforTrumporanon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwo
men.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.IhavelongbeenskepticalofUSefforts
toextendsecurityguaranteestocountrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir
'nearabroad'orextendsuchguaranteesandpoliceRussianinteractionswithnew
stateswhichforcenturieswerepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.This
isn'tamatterofindifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedonmybeliefinseriously
thinkingthroughthepotentialcostsofsuchpolicies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,those
countriesarenowpartofNATO.Securitycommitmentshavebeenmadewhich
absolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemanyotherareaswheresuchcommitments
havenotbeenmade.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometothisquestionor
thesepoliciesassomeonelookingforconfrontationorcoldrelationswithRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussianmoneyflowingintoTrump's
coffersandheisconspicuouslysolicitousofRussianforeignpolicypriorities.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,hisdebtloadhasgrown
dramaticallyoverthelastyear,from$350millionto$630million.Thisisinjustone
yearwhilehisliquidassetshavealsodecreased.Trumphasbeenblackballedbyall
majorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyreliantonmoneyfromRussia,mostof
whichhasovertheyearsbecomeincreasinglyconcentratedamongoligarchsand
sub-garchsclosetoVladimirPutin.Here'sagoodoverviewfromTheWashington
Post,withonemorselforillustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamilymembershavemade
numeroustripstoMoscowinsearchofbusinessopportunities,and
theyhavereliedonRussianinvestorstobuytheirpropertiesaround
theworld.
Russiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-sectionofalotof
ourassets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,toldarealestateconferencein
2008,accordingtoanaccountpostedonthewebsiteof
eTurboNews,atradepublication.Weseealotofmoneypouringin
fromRussia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentinManhattan,oneof
Trump'slargestrecentendeavors.Theprojectwashitwithaseriesoflawsuitsin
responsetosometypicallyTrumpianeffortstodefraudinvestorsbymaking
fraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancialhealthoftheproject.Emergingoutofthat
litigationhoweverwasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfortheprojectfromRussiaand
Kazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheprojecthasfocusedonthepresenceofa
twiceimprisonedRussianimmigrantwithextensivetiestotheRussiancriminal
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50millioninvestmentinTrumpSoHoand
threeotherBayrockprojectsbyanIcelandicfirmpreferredby
wealthyRussiansinfavorwithPresidentVladimirV.Putin,
accordingtoalawsuitagainstBayrockbyoneofitsformer
executives.TheIcelandiccompany,FLGroup,wasidentifiedina
Bayrockinvestorpresentationasastrategicpartner,alongwith
AlexanderMashkevich,abillionaireoncechargedinacorruption
caseinvolvingfeespaidbyaBelgiancompanyseekingbusinessin
Kazakhstanthatcasewassettledwithnoadmissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceivedunexplainedinfusionsofcash
fromaccountsinKazakhstanandRussia."
Readbotharticles:Afterhisbankruptcyandbusinessfailuresroughlyadecadeago
Trumphashadanincreasinglydifficulttimefindingsourcesofcapitalfornew
investments.AsInotedabove,TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks
withtheexceptionofDeutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwithamajor
USpresence.Hehassteadiedandrebuilthisfinancialempirewithaheavyreliance
oncapitalfromRussia.AtaminimumtheTrumporganizationisreceivinglotsof
investmentcapitalfrompeopleclosetoVladimirPutin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhisconnectionstoand
dependenceonRussiancapitalalignedwithPutin.Andincaseyou'rekeepingscore
athome:no,that'snotreassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal'campaignchair'whonowfunctions
ascampaignmanagerandtopadvisor.Manafortspentmostofthelastdecadeas
topcampaignandcommunicationsadvisorforViktorYanukovych,thepro-Russian
UkrainianPrimeMinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledtotheon-
goingcrisisandproxywarinUkraine.YanukovychwasandremainsaclosePutin
ally.ManafortisrunningTrump'scampaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEuropeisCarterPage,aman
whoseentireprofessionalcareerhasrevolvedaroundinvestmentsinRussiaand
whohasdeepandcontinuingfinancialandemploymenttiestoGazprom.Ifyou're
notfamiliarwithGazprom,imagineifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywere
rolledupintoasinglecompanyanditwerepersonallycontrolledbytheUS
Presidentwhouseditasasourceofrevenueandpatronage.ThatisGazprom's
roleintheRussianpoliticalandeconomicsystem.Itisnoexaggerationtosaythat
youcannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromattheveryhighlevelwhichPagehasbeen
withoutbeingwhollyinalignmentwithPutin'spolicies.ThosetiesalsoallowPutinto
putPageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,PutinhasalignedallRussianstatecontrolled
mediabehindTrump.AsFrankFoerexplainshere,thisfitsapatternwithhowPutin
hassoughttopropuprightist/nationalistpoliticiansacrossEurope,oftenwithdirect
orcovertinfusionsofmoney.InsomecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-
backedpoliciesinothersitissimplybecausetheysowdiscordinWesternaligned
states.Ofcourse,TrumphasrepeatedlypraisedPutin,notonlyintheabstractbut
oftenfortheauthoritarianpoliciesandpatternsofgovernmentwhichhavemost
souredhisreputationaroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofahandfulofdevelopments
thattippedmefromseeingallthisasjustapartofTrump'slargershadinessto
somethingmorespecificandominousabouttherelationshipbetweenPutinand
Trump.AsTPM'sTierneySneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduring
dynamicsofGOPconventions(there'sacomparabledynamicontheDemside)is
moremainstreamnomineesbattlingconservativeactivistsoverthepartyplatform,
withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardlineideologicalboxesandthenominees
tryingtosoftenmostorallofthoseedges.ThisisonethingthatmadetheTrump
conventionverydifferent.TheTrumpCampwastotallyindifferenttotheplatform.So
partyactivistswereabletowriteoneofthemostconservativeplatformsinhistory.
NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimplydidn'tcare.Withonebig
exception:Trump'steammobilizedthenominee'straditionalmixofcajolingand
strong-armingononepoint:changingthepartyplatformonassistancetoUkraine
againstRussianmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth(andit's
notworthmuch)IamquiteskepticalofmostRepublicanscallforaggressively
armingUkrainetoresistRussianaggression.Butthesingle-mindednessofthis
focusonthisoneissue-inthecontextoftotalindifferencetoeverythingelseinthe
platform-speaksvolumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepayofRussiaorPutin.Itcan
justaseasilybeexplainedbyhavingmanyofhistopadvisorshavingspentyears
workinginPutin'sorbitandbeingalignedwithhisthinkingandagenda.Butitis
certainlynocoincidence.Again,inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetothe
platformandwillingnesstoletpartyactivistswriteitinanywaytheywant,histeam
zeroedinononefairlyobscureplanktoexertmaximumforceanditjusthappensto
betheonemostimportanttoPutinintermsofUSpolicy.
Addtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicystatementstracknotonlywith
Putin'spositionsbutthoseinwhichPutinismostintenselyinterested.Asidefrom
Ukraine,Trump'ssuggestionthattheUSandthusNATOmightnotcometothe
defenseofNATOmemberstatesintheBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionis
acaseinpoint.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabouthackingandallmannerof
othermysteries.Butthosepointsarehighlyspeculative,somevergingon
conspiratorialintheirthinking.IignorethemherebecauseI'vewantedtofocuson
unimpeachable,undisputedandpubliclyknownfacts.Thesealonepaintastarkand
highlytroublingpicture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinweresimplytheCEOofamajor
AmericancorporationandtherewasthismuchmoneyflowinginTrump's
direction,combinedwiththismuchsolicitousnessofPutin'spolicyagenda,it
wouldsetoffalarmbellsgalore.Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutin
isnottheCEOofanAmericancorporation.He'stheautocratwhorulesaforeign
state,withanincreasinglyhostileposturetowardstheUnitedStatesanda
substantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakesinvolvedinfindingout'what's
goingon'asTrumpmightputitarequiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofcircumstantial
evidenceforafinancialrelationshipbetweenTrumpandPutinoranon-tacitalliance
betweenthetwomen.Evenifyoudrawnoadverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancial
empireisheavilyleveragedandhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusionsfrom
oligarchsandothersourcesofwealthalignedwithPutin.That'ssimplynot
HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaks
toInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
Closeyoureyesandimaginethatahackinggroupbackedby
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinbrokeintotheemailsystemofa
majorU.S.politicalparty.Thegroupstolethousandsofsensitive
messagesandthenpublishedthemthroughanobligingthirdpartyin
awaythatwasstrategicallytimedtoinfluencetheUnitedStates
presidentialelection.Nowopenyoureyes,becausethatswhat
justhappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emailsstolenfromthe
DemocraticNationalCommittee.Theyreveal,amongother
things,thuggishinfighting,apushbyatopDNCofficialtouse
BernieSandersreligiousconvictionsagainsthimintheSouth,and
attemptstostrong-armmediaoutlets.Inotherwords,theyreveal
ButleaveasidethepurportedcontentoftheWikileaksdatadump
(towhichnumerousotheroutletshavedevotedconsiderable
attention)andconsiderthesource.Considerableevidenceshows
thattheWikileaksdumpwasanorchestratedactbytheRussian
government,workingthroughproxies,toundermineHillaryClintons
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.Theonlyrationaleto
releasesuchdatafromtheRussianbulletproofhostwasto
empoweronecandidateagainstanother.TheColdWarisaliveand
well,TomKellermann,theCEOofStrategicCyberVentures
toldDefenseOne.
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. undercontractwiththeDNC,announced
inablogpostthattwoseparateRussian
theDNCnetwork.Onegroup,FANCYBEARorAPT28,gained
accessinApril.Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalledCozyDuke
CybersecuritycompanyFireEyefirstdiscoveredAPT29in2014
andwasquicktopointoutaclearKremlinconnection.Wesuspect
theRussiangovernmentsponsorsthegroupbecauseofthe
organizationsittargetsandthedataitsteals.Additionally,APT29
appearedtoceaseoperationsonRussianholidays,andtheirwork
hoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3timezone,whichcontains
citiessuchasMoscowandSt.Petersburg,theywroteintheir
reportonthegroup.OtherU.S.officialshavesaidthatthegroup
lookslikeithassponsorshipfromtheRussiangovernmentduein
largeparttothelevelofsophisticationbehindthegroupsattacks.
Itsthesamegroupthathit TheColdWarisaliveandwell
theStateDepartment,the TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
WhiteHouse,andthecivilian
emailoftheJointChiefsofStaff.Thegroupsmodusoperandi(a
spearphishingattackthatuploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstool
onthetargetscomputer)iswellknowntocyber-
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsofexperiencewithbothofthese
actorsattemptingtotargetourcustomersinthepastandknowthem
well.Infact,ourteamconsidersthemsomeofthebestadversaries
outofallthenumerousnation-state,criminalandhacktivist/terrorist
groupsweencounteronadailybasis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,
operationalsecuritysecondtononeandtheextensiveusageof
living-off-the-landtechniquesenablesthemtoeasilybypassmany
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimselfGuccifer2.0claimedto
betheculpritbehindthebreachandreleasedkeydocumentsto
backuptheclaim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
theDNCBreach
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,writing:theseclaimsdo
nothingtolessenourfindingsrelatingtotheRussiangovernments
involvement,portionsofwhichwehavedocumentedforthepublic
andthegreatersecuritycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependentanalysisandreachedthe
sameconclusion.ThegroupFidelisundertooktheirown
investigationandfoundCrowdstriketobecorrect.
ATwitterusernamed@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthemetadata
onthedocsthatGuccifer2.0providedinhisblogpostandfound
literalRussiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodinatArsTechnica.
Giventheevidencecombinedwitheverythingelse,Ithinkitsa
strongattributiontooneoftheRussianintelligenceagencies,
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-Bicchieraiactually
conversedwithGuccifer2.0overTwitter.Thehacker,whoclaimed
tobeRomanian,answeredquestionsinshortsentencesthatwere
filledwithmistakesaccordingtoseveralRomaniannativespeakers,
Bicchierifound.
smokescreenthattheactualculpritsemployedtohidetheir
involvementinthebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussianinformationandinfluence
operations.Russianpropagandistshavebeencaughthiringactors
toportrayvictimsofmanufacturedatrocitiesorcrimesfornews
reports(aswasthecasewhenViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohave
beenattackedbySyrianrefugeesinGermanyforRussias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-scenenewsreporting(asshown
inaleakedvideoinwhichreporterMariaKatasonovaisrevealed
tobeinadarkenedroomwithexplosionsoundsplayinginthe
backgroundratherthanonabattlefieldinDonetskwhenalightis
switchedonduringtherecording),notesaRANDreportfrom
earlierinJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatformservedtolegitimize
theinformationdump,whichalsocontainsalargeamountof
personalinformationrelatedtodemocraticdonorssuchassocial
securityandcreditcardnumbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaks
didntperformathoroughanalysisofthedocumentsbeforethey
releasedthem,orsimplydidntcare.
Itsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthatinformationsecurity
researcherBruceSchneiercallsorganizationaldoxingandthat
LawfaresNicholasWeavercallstheweaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priortotheDNCincident,
wastheJune2015thepublicationofseveralsetsofNSArecords
relatedtogovernmentintelligencecollectiontargets
compromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaksdoesntseemtocarethat
theyarebeingusedasaweaponbyunknownparties,instead
callingthemselvesalibraryofmasseducation.Buttherestofus
TheevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthatPutinusedtogreat
effectlastweek.
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/25/201606:01:01PM
Subject: Re:FrolovDoesn'tBuytheTrumpasPutinAgentStuff(atall),buttheDNCHackisAnotherMatter
Hesuregoesoutofhiswaytodownplayeverysingleconnection.Nothingtoseehere...nothingtoseehere...Ithinkhe'smissing
thepoint.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnJul25,2016,at4:17PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://slon.ru/posts/71242

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Senttime: 07/26/201604:54:27AM
To:KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>
CC:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>carolinavendilpallin
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se><teagueeliza@aol.com><teagueeliza@aol.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>Phil<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>Roderic&Mandy
SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>SiriolHugh-Jones<siriolhj@yahoo.co.uk>DG<davidjeglass@gmail.com>BoboLo
<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>
Justtobeclear,Ithinkhewouldbeadisasterforallofus-includingRussia!Hewouldbringamercurial'quality'thatevenVVPwould
struggletomanage.
Hmm...soTrumpistheLesserEvil.
SentfrommyiPhone
On26Jul2016,at6:50PM,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>wrote:
Perhapsparadoxically,IfeelPutinmightactuallyfindHillaryeasiertodealwith-knownquantity,predictablebehavior,
reasonablyclearlinesofengagementandlimitation.Trump,ontheotherhand,couldbeanightmarefortheKremlin-not
justondiscreteissues,butforthesheerchaosanduncertaintyhispresidencywouldbring.
OnTuesday,26July2016,9:42,JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>wrote:
Anotherview:
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-hawks%E2%80%99-election-strategy-pushing-new-cold-war-17113

Julian

To:RobertHorvathBoboLoJulianCoopercarolinavendilpallin<teagueeliza@aol.com><keith.bush017@gmail.com>
RichardConnollyPhilRoderic&MandyLyneJohnBesemeresKlausSegbersFUFriedErcRodricBraithwaite
StephenFortescueSilvanaMalle
Cc:DG
Subject:Fwd:160724(DefOne/Tucker)HowPutinWeaponizedWikileakstoInfluencetheElectionofanAmerican
President

SentfrommyiPad
SentfrommyiPad


TPMEDITOR'SBLOG
Trump&Putin.Yes,It'sReallya
Thing
ByJOSHMARSHALLPublishedJULY23,2016,4:15PMEDT

Overthelastyeartherehasbeenarecurrentrefrainabouttheseemingbromance
betweenDonaldTrumpandRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Moreseriously,but
relatedly,manybelieveTrumpisanadmirerandwould-beemulatorofPutin's
increasinglyautocraticandilliberalrule.Butthere'squiteabitmoretothestory.Ata
minimum,TrumpappearstohaveadeepfinancialdependenceonRussianmoney
frompersonsclosetoPutin.Andthisismatchedtoaconspicuoussolicitousnessto
RussianforeignpolicyinterestswheretheycomeintoconflictwithUSpolicies
whichgobackdecadesthroughadministrationsofbothparties.Thereisalso
somethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofevidencesuggesting
Putin-backedfinancialsupportforTrumporanon-tacitalliancebetweenthetwo
men.
LetmestartbysayingI'mnoRussiahawk.IhavelongbeenskepticalofUSefforts
toextendsecurityguaranteestocountrieswithinwhattheRussiansconsidertheir
'nearabroad'orextendsuchguaranteesandpoliceRussianinteractionswithnew
stateswhichforcenturieswerepartofeithertheRussianEmpireortheUSSR.This
isn'tamatterofindifferencetothesecountries.Itisbasedonmybeliefinseriously
thinkingthroughthepotentialcostsofsuchpolicies.InthecaseoftheBaltics,those
countriesarenowpartofNATO.Securitycommitmentshavebeenmadewhich
absolutelymustbekept.Buttherearemanyotherareaswheresuchcommitments
havenotbeenmade.MypointinraisingthisisthatIdonotcometothisquestionor
thesepoliciesassomeonelookingforconfrontationorcoldrelationswithRussia.
Let'sstartwiththebasicfacts.ThereisalotofRussianmoneyflowingintoTrump's
coffersandheisconspicuouslysolicitousofRussianforeignpolicypriorities.
1.AlltheotherdiscussionsofTrump'sfinancesaside,hisdebtloadhasgrown
dramaticallyoverthelastyear,from$350millionto$630million.Thisisinjustone
yearwhilehisliquidassetshavealsodecreased.Trumphasbeenblackballedbyall
majorUSbanks.
2.Post-bankruptcyTrumphasbeenhighlyreliantonmoneyfromRussia,mostof
whichhasovertheyearsbecomeincreasinglyconcentratedamongoligarchsand
sub-garchsclosetoVladimirPutin.Here'sagoodoverviewfromTheWashington
Post,withonemorselforillustration...
Sincethe1980s,Trumpandhisfamilymembershavemade
numeroustripstoMoscowinsearchofbusinessopportunities,and
theyhavereliedonRussianinvestorstobuytheirpropertiesaround
theworld.
Russiansmakeupaprettydisproportionatecross-sectionofalotof
ourassets,Trumpsson,DonaldJr.,toldarealestateconferencein
2008,accordingtoanaccountpostedonthewebsiteof
eTurboNews,atradepublication.Weseealotofmoneypouringin
fromRussia.
3.OneexampleofthisistheTrumpSohodevelopmentinManhattan,oneof
Trump'slargestrecentendeavors.Theprojectwashitwithaseriesoflawsuitsin
responsetosometypicallyTrumpianeffortstodefraudinvestorsbymaking
fraudulentclaimsaboutthefinancialhealthoftheproject.Emergingoutofthat
litigationhoweverwasnewsaboutsecretfinancingfortheprojectfromRussiaand
Kazakhstan.Mostattentionabouttheprojecthasfocusedonthepresenceofa
twiceimprisonedRussianimmigrantwithextensivetiestotheRussiancriminal
"Mr.Lauriabrokereda$50millioninvestmentinTrumpSoHoand
threeotherBayrockprojectsbyanIcelandicfirmpreferredby
wealthyRussiansinfavorwithPresidentVladimirV.Putin,
accordingtoalawsuitagainstBayrockbyoneofitsformer
executives.TheIcelandiccompany,FLGroup,wasidentifiedina
Bayrockinvestorpresentationasastrategicpartner,alongwith
AlexanderMashkevich,abillionaireoncechargedinacorruption
caseinvolvingfeespaidbyaBelgiancompanyseekingbusinessin
Kazakhstanthatcasewassettledwithnoadmissionofguilt."
Anothersuitallegedtheproject"occasionallyreceivedunexplainedinfusionsofcash
fromaccountsinKazakhstanandRussia."
Readbotharticles:Afterhisbankruptcyandbusinessfailuresroughlyadecadeago
Trumphashadanincreasinglydifficulttimefindingsourcesofcapitalfornew
investments.AsInotedabove,TrumphasbeenblackballedbyallmajorUSbanks
withtheexceptionofDeutschebank,whichisofcourseaforeignbankwithamajor
USpresence.Hehassteadiedandrebuilthisfinancialempirewithaheavyreliance
oncapitalfromRussia.AtaminimumtheTrumporganizationisreceivinglotsof
investmentcapitalfrompeopleclosetoVladimirPutin.
Trump'staxreturnswouldlikelyclarifythedepthofhisconnectionstoand
dependenceonRussiancapitalalignedwithPutin.Andincaseyou'rekeepingscore
athome:no,that'snotreassuring.
4.Thenthere'sPaulManafort,Trump'snominal'campaignchair'whonowfunctions
ascampaignmanagerandtopadvisor.Manafortspentmostofthelastdecadeas
topcampaignandcommunicationsadvisorforViktorYanukovych,thepro-Russian
UkrainianPrimeMinisterandthenPresidentwhoseousterin2014ledtotheon-
goingcrisisandproxywarinUkraine.YanukovychwasandremainsaclosePutin
ally.ManafortisrunningTrump'scampaign.
5.Trump'sforeignpolicyadvisoronRussiaandEuropeisCarterPage,aman
whoseentireprofessionalcareerhasrevolvedaroundinvestmentsinRussiaand
whohasdeepandcontinuingfinancialandemploymenttiestoGazprom.Ifyou're
notfamiliarwithGazprom,imagineifmostoralloftheUSenergyindustrywere
rolledupintoasinglecompanyanditwerepersonallycontrolledbytheUS
Presidentwhouseditasasourceofrevenueandpatronage.ThatisGazprom's
roleintheRussianpoliticalandeconomicsystem.Itisnoexaggerationtosaythat
youcannotbeinvolvedwithGazpromattheveryhighlevelwhichPagehasbeen
withoutbeingwhollyinalignmentwithPutin'spolicies.ThosetiesalsoallowPutinto
putPageoutofbusinessatanytime.
6.Overthecourseofthelastyear,PutinhasalignedallRussianstatecontrolled
mediabehindTrump.AsFrankFoerexplainshere,thisfitsapatternwithhowPutin
hassoughttopropuprightist/nationalistpoliticiansacrossEurope,oftenwithdirect
orcovertinfusionsofmoney.InsomecasesthisisbecausetheysupportRussia-
backedpoliciesinothersitissimplybecausetheysowdiscordinWesternaligned
states.Ofcourse,TrumphasrepeatedlypraisedPutin,notonlyintheabstractbut
oftenfortheauthoritarianpoliciesandpatternsofgovernmentwhichhavemost
souredhisreputationaroundtheworld.
7.Here'swhereitgetsmoreinteresting.Thisisoneofahandfulofdevelopments
thattippedmefromseeingallthisasjustapartofTrump'slargershadinessto
somethingmorespecificandominousabouttherelationshipbetweenPutinand
Trump.AsTPM'sTierneySneedexplainedinthisarticle,oneofthemostenduring
dynamicsofGOPconventions(there'sacomparabledynamicontheDemside)is
moremainstreamnomineesbattlingconservativeactivistsoverthepartyplatform,
withactiviststryingtocheckallthehardlineideologicalboxesandthenominees
tryingtosoftenmostorallofthoseedges.ThisisonethingthatmadetheTrump
conventionverydifferent.TheTrumpCampwastotallyindifferenttotheplatform.So
partyactivistswereabletowriteoneofthemostconservativeplatformsinhistory.
NotwithTrump'sbackingbutbecausehesimplydidn'tcare.Withonebig
exception:Trump'steammobilizedthenominee'straditionalmixofcajolingand
strong-armingononepoint:changingthepartyplatformonassistancetoUkraine
againstRussianmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.Forwhatit'sworth(andit's
notworthmuch)IamquiteskepticalofmostRepublicanscallforaggressively
armingUkrainetoresistRussianaggression.Butthesingle-mindednessofthis
focusonthisoneissue-inthecontextoftotalindifferencetoeverythingelseinthe
platform-speaksvolumes.
ThisdoesnotmeanTrumpiscontrolledbyorinthepayofRussiaorPutin.Itcan
justaseasilybeexplainedbyhavingmanyofhistopadvisorshavingspentyears
workinginPutin'sorbitandbeingalignedwithhisthinkingandagenda.Butitis
certainlynocoincidence.Again,inthecontextofneartotalindifferencetothe
platformandwillingnesstoletpartyactivistswriteitinanywaytheywant,histeam
zeroedinononefairlyobscureplanktoexertmaximumforceanditjusthappensto
betheonemostimportanttoPutinintermsofUSpolicy.
Addtothisthathismostconspicuousforeignpolicystatementstracknotonlywith
Putin'spositionsbutthoseinwhichPutinismostintenselyinterested.Asidefrom
Ukraine,Trump'ssuggestionthattheUSandthusNATOmightnotcometothe
defenseofNATOmemberstatesintheBalticsinthecaseofaRussianinvasionis
acaseinpoint.
Therearemanyotherthingspeopleareallegingabouthackingandallmannerof
othermysteries.Butthosepointsarehighlyspeculative,somevergingon
conspiratorialintheirthinking.IignorethemherebecauseI'vewantedtofocuson
unimpeachable,undisputedandpubliclyknownfacts.Thesealonepaintastarkand
highlytroublingpicture.
Toputthisallintoperspective,ifVladimirPutinweresimplytheCEOofamajor
AmericancorporationandtherewasthismuchmoneyflowinginTrump's
direction,combinedwiththismuchsolicitousnessofPutin'spolicyagenda,it
wouldsetoffalarmbellsgalore.Thatisnothyperboleorexaggeration.AndyetPutin
isnottheCEOofanAmericancorporation.He'stheautocratwhorulesaforeign
state,withanincreasinglyhostileposturetowardstheUnitedStatesanda
substantialstockpileofnuclearweapons.Thestakesinvolvedinfindingout'what's
goingon'asTrumpmightputitarequiteabithigher.
Thereissomethingbetweenanon-trivialandasubstantialamountofcircumstantial
evidenceforafinancialrelationshipbetweenTrumpandPutinoranon-tacitalliance
betweenthetwomen.Evenifyoudrawnoadverseconclusions,Trump'sfinancial
empireisheavilyleveragedandhasadeeprelianceoncapitalinfusionsfrom
oligarchsandothersourcesofwealthalignedwithPutin.That'ssimplynot
HowPutinWeaponizedWikileaks
toInfluencetheElectionofan
AmericanPresident
July24,2016
ByPatrickTucker
Closeyoureyesandimaginethatahackinggroupbackedby
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinbrokeintotheemailsystemofa
majorU.S.politicalparty.Thegroupstolethousandsofsensitive
messagesandthenpublishedthemthroughanobligingthirdpartyin
awaythatwasstrategicallytimedtoinfluencetheUnitedStates
presidentialelection.Nowopenyoureyes,becausethatswhat
justhappened.
OnFriday,Wikileakspublished20,000emailsstolenfromthe
DemocraticNationalCommittee.Theyreveal,amongother
things,thuggishinfighting,apushbyatopDNCofficialtouse
BernieSandersreligiousconvictionsagainsthimintheSouth,and
attemptstostrong-armmediaoutlets.Inotherwords,theyreveal
ButleaveasidethepurportedcontentoftheWikileaksdatadump
(towhichnumerousotheroutletshavedevotedconsiderable
attention)andconsiderthesource.Considerableevidenceshows
thattheWikileaksdumpwasanorchestratedactbytheRussian
government,workingthroughproxies,toundermineHillaryClintons
Thishasallthehallmarksoftradecraft.Theonlyrationaleto
releasesuchdatafromtheRussianbulletproofhostwasto
empoweronecandidateagainstanother.TheColdWarisaliveand
well,TomKellermann,theCEOofStrategicCyberVentures
toldDefenseOne.
SubscribetotheDefenseOnedaily. undercontractwiththeDNC,announced
inablogpostthattwoseparateRussian
theDNCnetwork.Onegroup,FANCYBEARorAPT28,gained
accessinApril.Theother,COZYBEAR,(alsocalledCozyDuke
CybersecuritycompanyFireEyefirstdiscoveredAPT29in2014
andwasquicktopointoutaclearKremlinconnection.Wesuspect
theRussiangovernmentsponsorsthegroupbecauseofthe
organizationsittargetsandthedataitsteals.Additionally,APT29
appearedtoceaseoperationsonRussianholidays,andtheirwork
hoursseemtoalignwiththeUTC+3timezone,whichcontains
citiessuchasMoscowandSt.Petersburg,theywroteintheir
reportonthegroup.OtherU.S.officialshavesaidthatthegroup
lookslikeithassponsorshipfromtheRussiangovernmentduein
largeparttothelevelofsophisticationbehindthegroupsattacks.
Itsthesamegroupthathit TheColdWarisaliveandwell
theStateDepartment,the TomKellermann,CEOofStrategicCyberVentures
WhiteHouse,andthecivilian
emailoftheJointChiefsofStaff.Thegroupsmodusoperandi(a
spearphishingattackthatuploadsadistinctiveremoteaccesstool
onthetargetscomputer)iswellknowntocyber-
AlperovitchwroteWevehadlotsofexperiencewithbothofthese
actorsattemptingtotargetourcustomersinthepastandknowthem
well.Infact,ourteamconsidersthemsomeofthebestadversaries
outofallthenumerousnation-state,criminalandhacktivist/terrorist
groupsweencounteronadailybasis.Theirtradecraftissuperb,
operationalsecuritysecondtononeandtheextensiveusageof
living-off-the-landtechniquesenablesthemtoeasilybypassmany
Thenextday,anindividualcallinghimselfGuccifer2.0claimedto
betheculpritbehindthebreachandreleasedkeydocumentsto
backuptheclaim,writing:ShameonCrowdStrike.
theDNCBreach
Crowdstrikestoodbytheiroriginalanalysis,writing:theseclaimsdo
nothingtolessenourfindingsrelatingtotheRussiangovernments
involvement,portionsofwhichwehavedocumentedforthepublic
andthegreatersecuritycommunity.
Othersecurityfirmsofferedindependentanalysisandreachedthe
sameconclusion.ThegroupFidelisundertooktheirown
investigationandfoundCrowdstriketobecorrect.
ATwitterusernamed@PwnAlltheThingslookedatthemetadata
onthedocsthatGuccifer2.0providedinhisblogpostandfound
literalRussiansignatures.
HisfindingswerebackedupbyDanGoodinatArsTechnica.
Giventheevidencecombinedwitheverythingelse,Ithinkitsa
strongattributiontooneoftheRussianintelligenceagencies,
MotherboardreporterLorenzoFranceschi-Bicchieraiactually
conversedwithGuccifer2.0overTwitter.Thehacker,whoclaimed
tobeRomanian,answeredquestionsinshortsentencesthatwere
filledwithmistakesaccordingtoseveralRomaniannativespeakers,
Bicchierifound.
smokescreenthattheactualculpritsemployedtohidetheir
involvementinthebreach.
ThatwouldbeconsistentwithRussianinformationandinfluence
operations.Russianpropagandistshavebeencaughthiringactors
toportrayvictimsofmanufacturedatrocitiesorcrimesfornews
reports(aswasthecasewhenViktoriaSchmidtpretendedtohave
beenattackedbySyrianrefugeesinGermanyforRussias
ZvezdaTVnetwork),orfakingon-scenenewsreporting(asshown
inaleakedvideoinwhichreporterMariaKatasonovaisrevealed
tobeinadarkenedroomwithexplosionsoundsplayinginthe
backgroundratherthanonabattlefieldinDonetskwhenalightis
switchedonduringtherecording),notesaRANDreportfrom
earlierinJuly.
TheuseofWikileaksasthepublishingplatformservedtolegitimize
theinformationdump,whichalsocontainsalargeamountof
personalinformationrelatedtodemocraticdonorssuchassocial
securityandcreditcardnumbers.ThissuggeststhatWikileaks
didntperformathoroughanalysisofthedocumentsbeforethey
releasedthem,orsimplydidntcare.
Itsthelatestinstallmentinatrendthatinformationsecurity
researcherBruceSchneiercallsorganizationaldoxingandthat
LawfaresNicholasWeavercallstheweaponizationofWikileaks.
Themostremarkableexampleofwhich,priortotheDNCincident,
wastheJune2015thepublicationofseveralsetsofNSArecords
relatedtogovernmentintelligencecollectiontargets
compromisedNSAtradecraft.Wikileaksdoesntseemtocarethat
theyarebeingusedasaweaponbyunknownparties,instead
callingthemselvesalibraryofmasseducation.Buttherestofus
TheevidencesofarsuggestsitsaweaponthatPutinusedtogreat
effectlastweek.
From: obolon78@yahoo.com
Senttime: 07/25/201609:55:32PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comwilliamsjp@state.gov
Subject: Re:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
Thanks.Right.Discussedthisp.m.Willfillyouintomorrowmorning.
------Originalmessage------
From:Bob
Date:Mon,Jul25,201617:40
To:williamsjp@state.govobolon78@yahoo.com
Subject:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-dismantling-of-dnc-is-clear-attack-by-putin-on-clinton/
WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton
WikileaksfounderJulianAssangeasillustratedfortheObserverin2014.(IllustrationbyJoeCiardiello)
TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpoliticalsensationandscandalonagrand
scale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillaryClinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocrats
presidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathatgetsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.
WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyanddishonest,nottomention
corrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrumphavebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.Tosay
thisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingtheTitanichadissueswithice.
Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeenforcedtotenderher
resignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeenrevealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNC
attentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnotshockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocrats
areanythingbutunitednowastheypreparetotakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.
Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbettertodamageHillaryandherefforts
tomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.AlthoughitsdoubtfulthatleakedRNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadfor
thepublic,ClintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththeindeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocratic
presidentialnomination.
WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.AlthoughtheDNCcantdenythatmanyof
theleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationiftheywerefake,obviouslythereremainsthe
importantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshandsonthem.
Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhichindependent
cybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknowncut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZY
BEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivatenetworksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theState
Department,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.AnotherhackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isa
well-knownRussianfront,asIvepreviouslyprofiled.
ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicasasignatureandKremlin
attributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.
Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloineddata,includingthousandsof
unflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.
This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.Inresponsetothedata-dump,
theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscowprefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusing
WikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymostpeopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasit
shouldbe.
Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlinfrontforyears,andits
nicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothisviewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,based
onmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesintheSpyWar.
Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartmentcablesthathadbeenstolen
bydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkforthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashed
aglobalscandal.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.
AssangephotographedbyanObserverreporterin2014.(Photo:EmilyLembo)
Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralianhacktivistJulianAssange,
whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfromrapechargesinSweden.Itsunclearwhenthegroups
tiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythetimeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.
TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewhocounseledtheAmericanIT
contractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceand
accompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialandAssangeintimate.
WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsIexplainedlastyear:
OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhissecretservices,notablythe
FSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiestsecretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrant
andmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoiceforaprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.
WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakeyquestionthatany
counterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBordidhejustknowEdcouldobtainthe
sanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?
ThentherestherevealingfactthatAssangehaswantedFSBprotectionforhimselftoo:
WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidetheembassy,suggestingtheuseof
Russianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWesternprivacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhile
hidingoutinaWesterncountry.
TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygoodquestionthatanybody
whoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.
Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwroteaboutfullythreeyears
ago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-SemiticnutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformany
years,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyonRussianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:
SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.HisofficialbiographystatesthathewasbornintheSoviet
Unionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitaestandsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomething
likeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewithaliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,he
wasbestknownasaneo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentogetmixedupin.
Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocolsoftheEldersofZionand
hangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.HisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmanyhavewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagent
provocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.JewishscholarNormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossed
pathswithShamirmorethanonce,calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimself
istrue.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.
AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhoheworksfor.Thesecretservices
hadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-Moscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasonto
doubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.
SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlinagitpropnetworkwhy
Westernreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportantquestion.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsago
droppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineonawidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowith
privacy.
ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemediahasbeengradually
noticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterviewwiththeObserverin2014,said:itispretty
clearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillancecomplexismerelythefinalstraw.
Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithasbecome,whilethosewhoget
inbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbeaskedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirectties
withPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediagettherelateratherthannever.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978themagazineCovertAction
InformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.ItseditorwasPhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohad
gottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGBcovernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandfor
yearsservedasaconduitforKremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.
WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,thoughfewmagazinestaffers
beyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.ItsbesttothinkofWkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedforthe
Internetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecentlyadmittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,
EdismerelytodaysPhilAgeethoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.
TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinanAmericanpresidential
election.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheColdWar,butPutinfearsnothinginObamas
Washington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.
ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,falseinformationhiddenamongfacts
toharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussianspytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.
Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,andtheDNCactuallyhas
doneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymanyAmericans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefers
TrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventheimportantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhat
betterwaytohelpistherethantodiscreditTeamClinton?
ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.ItsnormalRussianspycraftto
placejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.HereweneedrigorousindependentanalysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassess
whatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.
ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfarmoretroubledbythe
nakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreattoourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintons
mightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNCleakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexamine
closelywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingforyears.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaks
finallybeingendorsedbythemedia,butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNC
emailshadbeenavoided.
Disclosure:DonaldTrumpisthefather-in-lawofJaredKushner,thepublisherofObserverMedia.
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.Aspecialistinespionageand
terrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.HespublishedfourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
SentfrommyiPad
From: obolon78@yahoo.com
Senttime: 07/25/201609:55:32PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comwilliamsjp@state.gov
Subject: Re:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
Thanks.Right.Discussedthisp.m.Willfillyouintomorrowmorning.
------Originalmessage------
From:Bob
Date:Mon,Jul25,201617:40
To:williamsjp@state.govobolon78@yahoo.com
Subject:WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
http://observer.com/2016/07/wikileaks-dismantling-of-dnc-is-clear-attack-by-putin-on-clinton/
TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpoliticalsensationandscandalonagrand
scale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillaryClinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocrats
presidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathatgetsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.
WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyanddishonest,nottomention
corrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrumphavebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.Tosay
thisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingtheTitanichadissueswithice.
Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeenforcedtotenderher
resignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeenrevealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNC
attentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnotshockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocrats
areanythingbutunitednowastheypreparetotakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.
Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbettertodamageHillaryandherefforts
tomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.AlthoughitsdoubtfulthatleakedRNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadfor
thepublic,ClintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththeindeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocratic
presidentialnomination.
WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.AlthoughtheDNCcantdenythatmanyof
theleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationiftheywerefake,obviouslythereremainsthe
importantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshandsonthem.
Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhichindependent
cybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknowncut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZY
BEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivatenetworksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theState
Department,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.AnotherhackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isa
well-knownRussianfront,asIvepreviouslyprofiled.
ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicasasignatureandKremlin
attributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.
Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloineddata,includingthousandsof
unflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.
This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.Inresponsetothedata-dump,
theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscowprefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusing
WikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymostpeopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasit
shouldbe.
Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlinfrontforyears,andits
nicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothisviewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,based
onmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesintheSpyWar.
Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartmentcablesthathadbeenstolen
bydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkforthen-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashed
aglobalscandal.
Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralianhacktivistJulianAssange,
whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfromrapechargesinSweden.Itsunclearwhenthegroups
tiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythetimeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.
TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewhocounseledtheAmericanIT
contractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceand
accompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialandAssangeintimate.
WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsIexplainedlastyear:
OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhissecretservices,notablythe
FSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiestsecretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrant
andmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoiceforaprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.
WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakeyquestionthatany
counterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBordidhejustknowEdcouldobtainthe
sanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?
WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidetheembassy,suggestingtheuseof
Russianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWesternprivacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhile
hidingoutinaWesterncountry.
TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygoodquestionthatanybody
whoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.
Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwroteaboutfullythreeyears
ago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-SemiticnutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformany
years,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyonRussianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:
SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.HisofficialbiographystatesthathewasbornintheSoviet
Unionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitaestandsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomething
likeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewithaliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,he
wasbestknownasaneo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentogetmixedupin.
Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocolsoftheEldersofZionand
hangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.HisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmanyhavewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagent
provocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.JewishscholarNormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossed
pathswithShamirmorethanonce,calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimself
istrue.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.
AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhoheworksfor.Thesecretservices
hadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-Moscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasonto
doubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.
SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlinagitpropnetworkwhy
Westernreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportantquestion.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsago
droppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineonawidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowith
privacy.
ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemediahasbeengradually
noticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterviewwiththeObserverin2014,said:itispretty
clearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillancecomplexismerelythefinalstraw.
Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithasbecome,whilethosewhoget
inbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbeaskedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirectties
withPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediagettherelateratherthannever.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978themagazineCovertAction
InformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.ItseditorwasPhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohad
gottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGBcovernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandfor
yearsservedasaconduitforKremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.
WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,thoughfewmagazinestaffers
beyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.ItsbesttothinkofWkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedforthe
Internetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecentlyadmittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,
EdismerelytodaysPhilAgeethoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.
TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinanAmericanpresidential
election.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheColdWar,butPutinfearsnothinginObamas
Washington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.
ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,falseinformationhiddenamongfacts
toharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussianspytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.
Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,andtheDNCactuallyhas
doneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymanyAmericans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefers
TrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventheimportantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhat
betterwaytohelpistherethantodiscreditTeamClinton?
ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.ItsnormalRussianspycraftto
placejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.HereweneedrigorousindependentanalysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassess
whatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.
ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfarmoretroubledbythe
nakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreattoourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintons
mightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNCleakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexamine
closelywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingforyears.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaks
finallybeingendorsedbythemedia,butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNC
emailshadbeenavoided.
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.Aspecialistinespionageand
terrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.HespublishedfourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 07/25/201602:40:12PM
To: obolon78@yahoo.comwilliamsjp@state.gov
BCc: ottorc@state.gov
Subject: WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpolitical
sensationandscandalonagrandscale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillary
Clinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocratspresidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathat
getsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.
WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyand
dishonest,nottomentioncorrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrump
havebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.TosaythisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingthe
Titanichadissueswithice.
Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeen
forcedtotenderherresignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeen
revealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNCattentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnot
shockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocratsareanythingbutunitednowastheyprepare
totakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.
Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbetterto
damageHillaryandhereffortstomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.Althoughitsdoubtfulthatleaked
RNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadforthepublic,Clintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththe
indeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocraticpresidentialnomination.
WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.Althoughthe
DNCcantdenythatmanyoftheleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationif
theywerefake,obviouslythereremainstheimportantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshands
onthem.
Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhich
independentcybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknown
cut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZYBEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivate
networksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theStateDepartment,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.Another
hackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isawell-knownRussianfront,as
Ivepreviouslyprofiled.
ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicas
asignatureandKremlinattributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.
Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloined
data,includingthousandsofunflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.
This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.In
responsetothedata-dump,theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscow
prefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusingWikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymost
peopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasitshouldbe.
Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlin
frontforyears,anditsnicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothis
viewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,basedonmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesin
theSpyWar.
Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartment
cablesthathadbeenstolenbydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkfor
then-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashedaglobalscandal.
Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralian
hacktivistJulianAssange,whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfrom
rapechargesinSweden.ItsunclearwhenthegroupstiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythe
timeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.
TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewho
counseledtheAmericanITcontractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013
whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceandaccompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialand
Assangeintimate.
WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsI
explainedlastyear:
OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhis
secretservices,notablytheFSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiest
secretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrantandmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoice
foraprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.
WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakey
questionthatanycounterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBor
didhejustknowEdcouldobtainthesanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?
WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidethe
embassy,suggestingtheuseofRussianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWestern
privacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhilehidingoutinaWesterncountry.
TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygood
questionthatanybodywhoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.
Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwrote
aboutfullythreeyearsago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-Semitic
nutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformanyyears,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyon
Russianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:
SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.Hisofficialbiographystates
thathewasbornintheSovietUnionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitae
standsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomethinglikeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewith
aliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,hewasbestknownasa
neo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentoget
mixedupin.
Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocols
oftheEldersofZionandhangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.Hisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmany
havewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagentprovocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.Jewishscholar
NormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossedpathswithShamirmorethanonce,
calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimselfis
true.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.
AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhohe
worksfor.ThesecretserviceshadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-
MoscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasontodoubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.
SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlin
agitpropnetworkwhyWesternreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportant
question.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsagodroppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineon
awidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowithprivacy.
ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemedia
hasbeengraduallynoticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterview
withtheObserverin2014,said:itisprettyclearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillance
complexismerelythefinalstraw.
Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithas
become,whilethosewhogetinbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbe
askedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirecttieswithPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediaget
therelateratherthannever.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978
themagazineCovertActionInformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.Itseditorwas
PhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohadgottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGB
covernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandforyearsservedasaconduitfor
KremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.
WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,
thoughfewmagazinestaffersbeyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.Itsbesttothinkof
WkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedfortheInternetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecently
admittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,EdismerelytodaysPhilAgee
thoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.
TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinan
Americanpresidentialelection.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheCold
War,butPutinfearsnothinginObamasWashington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.
ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,false
informationhiddenamongfactstoharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussian
spytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.
Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,and
theDNCactuallyhasdoneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymany
Americans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefersTrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventhe
importantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhatbetterwaytohelpistherethantodiscredit
TeamClinton?
ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.Its
normalRussianspycrafttoplacejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.Hereweneedrigorousindependent
analysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassesswhatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.
ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfar
moretroubledbythenakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreatto
ourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintonsmightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNC
leakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexaminecloselywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingfor
years.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaksfinallybeingendorsedbythemedia,
butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNCemailshad
beenavoided.
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.A
specialistinespionageandterrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.Hespublished
fourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 07/25/201602:40:12PM
To: obolon78@yahoo.comwilliamsjp@state.gov
BCc: ottorc@state.gov
Subject: WikileaksDismantlingofDNCIsClearAttackbyPutinonClinton|Observer
TherecentWikileaksdumpof20,000emailsbelongingtotheDemocraticNationalCommitteehascausedpolitical
sensationandscandalonagrandscale.TheseinternalcommunicationsrevealnothingflatteringabouttheDNCorHillary
Clinton,whoissettobeanointedastheDemocratspresidentialnomineeattheirpartyconventioninPhiladelphiathat
getsunderwaywithfanfaretoday.
WikileakshasthrownanuglywrenchintoHillaryscoronation.DNCemailsrevealaClintoncampaignthatsshadyand
dishonest,nottomentioncorrupt.ItssecretdealingswithHillarysopponentswhetherBernieSandersorDonaldTrump
havebeendistastefulandpossiblyillegal.TosaythisisanunflatteringportrayalofTeamClintonislikesayingthe
Titanichadissueswithice.
Theramificationsofthismassiveleakarealreadyserious.DebbieWassermanSchultz,theembattledDNCchair,hasbeen
forcedtotenderherresignationinadvanceofthepartyconclaveinPhiladelphia,whileSenatorSanders,whosbeen
revealedasthetargetofmuchaggressiveDNCattentionduringtheDemocraticprimarycampaign,statedhewasnot
shockedbutImdisappointedbytheWikileaksrevelations.TheDemocratsareanythingbutunitednowastheyprepare
totakeonDonaldTrumpandtheRepublicans.
Ontheeveofthefour-dayDemocraticconventionextravaganza,thisdata-dumpcouldnothavebeentimedbetterto
damageHillaryandhereffortstomovebackintotheWhiteHousethisNovember.Althoughitsdoubtfulthatleaked
RNCinternalemailswouldmakeanymorepleasantareadforthepublic,Clintonwillemergefromthistarredwiththe
indeliblebrushofcorruptionandcollusionwithherpartysleadershiptofixtheDemocraticpresidentialnomination.
WikileakshasdeliveredaspromisedonitspublicthreatsofdamagingTeamClintonwithhackedemails.Althoughthe
DNCcantdenythatmanyoftheleakedmessagesappearauthentictheywouldnthaveforcedthechairsresignationif
theywerefake,obviouslythereremainstheimportantquestionofhowthevauntedprivacyorganizationgotitshands
onthem.
Itturnsoutthereshardlyanymysterythere.ItsnosecretthattheDNCwasrecentlysubjecttoamajorhack,onewhich
independentcybersecurityexpertseasilyassessedasbeingtheworkofRussianintelligencethroughpreviouslyknown
cut-outs.Oneofthem,calledCOZYBEARorAPT29,hasusedspear-phishingtogainillegalaccesstomanyprivate
networksintheWest,aswellastheWhiteHouse,theStateDepartment,andtheJointChiefsofStafflastyear.Another
hackinggroupinvolvedintheattackontheDNC,calledFANCYBEARorAPT28,isawell-knownRussianfront,as
Ivepreviouslyprofiled.
ThesebearsdidntmakemucheffortstohidetheirDNChackinonecaseleavingbehindaRussiannameinCyrillicas
asignatureandKremlinattributionhasbeenconfirmedbyindependentanalysisbyasecondcybersecurityfirm.
Theanswerthenissimple:RussianhackersworkingfortheKremlincyber-pilferedtheDNCthenpassedthepurloined
data,includingthousandsofunflatteringemails,toWikileaks,whichhasshownthemtotheworld.
This,ofcourse,meansthatWikileaksisdoingMoscowsbiddingandhasplaceditselfinbedwithVladimirPutin.In
responsetothedata-dump,theDNChassaidasmuchandtheClintoncampaignhasendorsedtheviewthatMoscow
prefersDonaldTrumpinthiselection,anditsusingWikileakstoharmHillary.Thisview,consideredbizarrebymost
peopleaslateaslastweek,isbeingtakenseriouslybytheWhiteHouseasitshouldbe.
Intruth,toanyoneversedincounterintelligenceandRussianespionagetradecraft,WikileakshasbeenanobviousKremlin
frontforyears,anditsnicetoseetheDemocratsandtheiralliesinthemainstreammediasuddenlycomearoundtothis
viewwhichIvestatedpubliclysince2013,basedonmylongexperienceworkingagainstRussiansecurityagenciesin
theSpyWar.
Wikileakscametointernationalprominencein2010whenitreleasedonlineaquarter-millionclassifiedStateDepartment
cablesthathadbeenstolenbydisgruntledArmyPrivateBradley(nowChelsea)Manning.Thiswasahugeblackmarkfor
then-SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandunleashedaglobalscandal.
Wikileakswasfoundedin2006,ostensiblyasaprivacyorganizationandinrealityasavanityprojectbytheAustralian
hacktivistJulianAssange,whohasbeenhidingintheEcuadorianembassyinLondonsincemid-2012,ontherunfrom
rapechargesinSweden.ItsunclearwhenthegroupstiestotheKremlinwereforged,butitsobvioustheyexistedbythe
timeWikileakstookcenterstageintheEdwardSnowdencaseinmid-2013.
TheroleofWikileaksintheSnowdensagawouldbedifficulttooverstate,notleastsinceAssangewastheonewho
counseledtheAmericanITcontractortoseeksanctuaryinRussia.SnowdenleftHongKongforMoscowinJune2013
whereheremainsbasedonAssangesadviceandaccompaniedbySarahHarrison,atopWikileaksofficialand
Assangeintimate.
WhyAssangerecommendedthattheNSAcontractoronthelamseekPutinsprotectionisanimportantquestion.AsI
explainedlastyear:
OnlyinRussiawouldEdbesafe,Juliancounseled,becausetherehewouldbeprotectedbyVladimirPutinandhis
secretservices,notablytheFSB.OnemightthinkthatseekingtheshelteroftheFSBoneoftheworldsnastiest
secretpoliceforcesthatspiesonmillionswithoutwarrantandmurdersopponentsfreelymightbeanoddchoice
foraprivacyorganization.ButWikileaksisnoordinaryNGO.
WhyAssangeknewRussiawouldtakeinSnowdenitcouldbeabigpoliticalhassleforMoscowisakey
questionthatanycounterintelligenceofficerwouldwantanswered.WasJulianspeakingonbehalfoftheFSBor
didhejustknowEdcouldobtainthesanctuaryplusprotectionhesought?
WhileholedupinLondon,AssangerequestedthathebeabletochoosehisownSecurityServiceinsidethe
embassy,suggestingtheuseofRussianoperatives.Itis,tosaytheleast,surpassinglystrangethataWestern
privacyadvocatewantsRussiansecretpoliceprotectionwhilehidingoutinaWesterncountry.
TheresnodoubtthatAssangeconsidersPutinshighlyunsavorysecretservicestobehisfriends.Whyisaverygood
questionthatanybodywhoslookingintoWikileaksoughttoask.
Allthesame,AssangesaffectionfortheKremlinanditsintelligenceagenciesisnothingnewandwassomethingIwrote
aboutfullythreeyearsago,astheSnowdenstorywasbreaking.ThisrevolvedaroundIsraelShamir,ananti-Semitic
nutcasewhosbeenintheWikileaksorbitformanyyears,servingasacloseconfidanttoAssangeandhisgo-toguyon
Russianmatters.AsIelaboratedbackinJuly2013:
SowhoisIsraelShamir?Thatsnotaneasyquestiontoanswerwithmuchcertainty.Hisofficialbiographystates
thathewasbornintheSovietUnionin1947andemigratedtoIsraelin1969,butlittleofhiscurriculumvitae
standsuptodetailedscrutiny.Headmitstohavingsomethinglikeahalf-dozendifferentidentities,completewith
aliases.Ofgreatestinteresthereisthat,beforehebecamefamousforhisWikileakslinks,hewasbestknownasa
neo-NaziholocaustdenierinEuropeancircles.WhichisaprettyrarethingforaJewandIsraelicitizentoget
mixedupin.
Shamir,operatingunderseveralnames,isnotedforhisanti-SemiticvitriolandisfondofextollingtheProtocols
oftheEldersofZionandhangingoutwithNordicneo-Nazis.Hisviewsaresostrangeandvehementthatmany
havewonderedifShamirsisactuallyanagentprovocateuronbehalfofsomeintelligenceservice.Jewishscholar
NormanFinkelstein,knownforhisownpro-Palestinianviews,whocrossedpathswithShamirmorethanonce,
calledhimamaniac,adding,Hehasinventedhisentirepersonalhistory.Nothinghesaysabouthimselfis
true.Inall,ShamirsaprettyoddchoiceasWikileaksgo-toguyforRussia.
AlthoughWikileakshassemi-deniedthatShamirisontheirpayroll,Shamirhimselfhasbeenabundantlyclearwhohe
worksfor.ThesecretserviceshadthisoddballpeggedasaKGBagentwaybackinthe1980s,andgivenShamirspro-
MoscowrantstothepresentdaythereseemsnoreasontodoubthesstillfriendlywithRussianspecialservices.
SinceAssangehasntexactlybeenshyabouthispro-MoscowviewsincludinghavinghisownshowonRT,theKremlin
agitpropnetworkwhyWesternreportershaventbeendiggingintothismessuntilaboutfourdaysagoisanimportant
question.EspeciallysinceAssangeyearsagodroppedanypretenseofobjectivity,slavishlyfollowingtheMoscowlineon
awidearrayofissuessuchasSyriawhichhavenothingtodowithprivacy.
ThatAssangeandWikileaksaresurrogatesforPutinisnowobvious,andintruthhasbeenforsometime,asthemedia
hasbeengraduallynoticing.TheiroperationtotakedownHillaryClintonaboutwhomAssange,inanexclusiveinterview
withtheObserverin2014,said:itisprettyclearthatwearewitnessingthebirthofaGoogle-military-surveillance
complexismerelythefinalstraw.
Icounseledthisayearago:Wikileaksshouldbetreatedasthefrontandcut-outforRussianintelligencethatithas
become,whilethosewhogetinbedwithWikileaksmanyWesternprivacyadvocatesareinthatgroupshouldbe
askedtheirfeelingsabouttheirownatleastindirecttieswithPutinsspyservices.ItsbettertoseetheWesternmediaget
therelateratherthannever.
TheresnothingnewaboutWikileaksoritskeyroleintheKremlinsinternationalpropagandaapparatus.Backin1978
themagazineCovertActionInformationBulletinappearedtoexposethesecretsofWesternintelligence.Itseditorwas
PhilAgee,adisgruntledformerCIAofficerwhohadgottenintobedwithCubanandSovietintelligence(hisKGB
covernamewasPONT).CAIBwasinfactfoundedonthedirectionoftheKGBandforyearsservedasaconduitfor
KremlinliesanddisinformationthatseriouslyharmedWesternintelligence.
WhileCAIBpresenteditselftothepublicasatruth-tellinggroupofwhistleblowers,inactualityitwasaKGBfront,
thoughfewmagazinestaffersbeyondAgeeknewwhowasreallycallingtheshotsandpayingthebills.Itsbesttothinkof
WkilieaksasnomorethanCAIBupdatedfortheInternetage.SinceseniorKremlinsecurityofficialshaverecently
admittedthatSnowdenistheiragent,andhassharedAmericansecretswiththem,EdismerelytodaysPhilAgee
thoughPhilatleasthadthesensetodefecttosunnyHavanaratherthansnowyMoscow.
TheimportantpartofthisstoryisthatRussianintelligence,usingitsWikileakscut-out,hasinterveneddirectlyinan
Americanpresidentialelection.ThiswassomethingeventheKGBwassheepishaboutdoingattheheightoftheCold
War,butPutinfearsnothinginObamasWashington,ashisincreasinglybrazenactionsagainstAmericansplainlyillustrate.
ThemostdamagingaspecttotheDNCleakisthecertaintythatMoscowhasplaceddisinformationthatis,false
informationhiddenamongfactstoharmtheDemocratsandtheClintoncampaign.DisinformationisavenerableRussian
spytrickthatcanbepoliticallydevastatingtoitstarget.
Disinformationismosteffectivewhenitplaysuponessentialtruths.SinceHillaryreallyiscorruptandlessthanhonest,and
theDNCactuallyhasdoneherbiddinginshadyways,liesthatamplifythosethemeswillbereadilybelievedbymany
Americans.ItsobviousthatMoscowprefersTrumpoverClintoninthiselection,whichoughtnotsurprisegiventhe
importantroleofPutin-friendlyadvisorsintheTrumpcampaign,andwhatbetterwaytohelpistherethantodiscredit
TeamClinton?
ItsapparentalreadythatsomeofthemostsalaciousemailsintheDNCmega-dumparefakeasistobeexpected.Its
normalRussianspycrafttoplacejuicyfakemessagesamongalotofgenuineones.Hereweneedrigorousindependent
analysisofthislatestWikileaksoperationtoassesswhatsrealandwhatsmadeupbysomebodyinMoscow.
ImanythingbutaHillaryfan,asmyextensivereportingonhercrimesandliesinEmailGatecanattest.However,Iamfar
moretroubledbythenakedinterferenceoftheKremlinanditsspyagenciesinAmericandemocracy,whichisathreatto
ourfreedomsbeyondanythingtheClintonsmightdo.EveryAmericanshoulddemandthoroughinvestigationoftheDNC
leakanditswellpasttimeforthemainstreammediatoexaminecloselywhatWikileaksreallyisasIvebeendoingfor
years.Itssatisfyingtoseemyreality-basedcounterintelligenceanalysisofWikileaksfinallybeingendorsedbythemedia,
butIwouldhavepreferrediftheyhadpaidattentionearlierandthecurrentelection-yeardisasterwithDNCemailshad
beenavoided.
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligenceofficer.A
specialistinespionageandterrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.Hespublished
fourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 07/25/201601:42:54PM
To: BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Subject: Re:SilovikiandChangepaperreactions
Roldugingotitfromwhom?Mypointisthatitsasensitiveissueforhim.justlikegoingbackwas.
Ididntsaysimplistic.ButwhenyousayhesaKGBmanmostfolkswillreaditpreciselythewayyoudontintend-theonly
thing.
OnJul25,2016,at4:39PM,BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>wrote:
Bob,

Ofcourse,hetellsusaboutbeingofferedapositioninMoscowandRoldugindoes.Samesourceasthesource
ontheresignation.But,yes,hedidleave,unlikesomeothers.AndyouofcourseknowtheansweraboutOzero
yourself.

Itisperhapsabitreductionistandsimplistic,butmorerightthanwronginmyview.SayingheisaKGBman
doesntmeanthatstheONLYthingheis.

Brian

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
To:BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Subject:Re:SilovikiandChangepaperreactions

Brian:

Justquickly.WecanwaitIbelieveweareinnohurry.Iwillchecktomorrow.

Mycommentsareforyourconsideration.

OntheKGB:

Iamaprovocateurbynature.SoIprovoked.Butjustonepoint:whotellsusin1stPersonthathewasoffereda
positioninMoscow?

Asfortheresignation:onewayortheotherheleft,unlikeSergeyforexample.

HowmanyofthedachacrowdwereKGB?

Ijustthinktheargumentisreductionist,butIhavebeenwrongbefore.

b

OnJul25,2016,at4:16PM,BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>wrote:

HiBob,

Thanksverymuchforthefeedback,itisveryhelpful.Iagreethatitneedssometighteningand
clarifications.

Iwanttopushbackon1keypoint.ThenIwillmakesomesmallerremarksbelow.
TheonekeypointisVVPasaKGBman.Idontthinkthatisparticularlyquestionable.Iwouldcite
severalpiecesofevidence:
Hischildhoodaspirations.
Hiscareerforthefirst15yearsofhislife.
Hisworldview,whichseemsveryinformedbythattimeperiod,fromtheimpulsetocontroltohis
statistandderzhavnikviewstohissuspicionthatNGOsareworkingtoadvanceforeigninterestsand
soon.HisfriendRolduginsaysbasicallythesamethingin1s tpersonthatVVPsmentalityand
worldviewcomesfromtheKGB.Andheishardlytheonlyone.
Imnotsureaboutyourcounterevidence:
yousayhewassenttoLeningradratherthanMoscow.Howdoyouknowthis?Firstpersonclaims
otherwisehewasofferedaplaceinMoscow,anddecidednottotakeit.
yousayheresigned.Thedetailsareverymurky,tomeatleast.Heclaimstohavesenta
resignationin1990thatwasneverreceived/actedupon,sopresumablyhekeptdrawinghissalary.
ThenheclaimsthatinAugust1991,inthemidstofthecoup,hesignedasecondresignation,and
somehowgotSobchaktocallKryuchkovandgethisresignationpushedthrough.Really?Itshardto
believethatKrychukovwouldhavetalkedtoSobchakaboutanythingotherthantheongoingcoupif
theytalkedatall,ratherthansigningpapersforsomerandomLt.Col.IdontagreewithGessenon
manythings,butIthinkherskepticismaboutthisstoryiswarranted.Butevenifwedosayhe
resignedinAugust1991,hebasicallylefttheKGBbecausethecountrywascollapsing.Itdidntseem
likeanideationalbreakorarenunciationofthatexperienceandprofession,butsomethingforcedby
arevolution.
SoIthinkitisfairtosayheisaKGBman.YouprobablysawtheinterviewwithV.Soloveyafew
weeksagowhenhetalkedabouttheconsequencesofhavingwhathecalledprofessional
paranoiacsinchargeofstatepolicy.Thatistoostrong,obviously,buthewastalkingaboutthesame
issueofChekistworldview.
IcanprobablydobetterwithhowIsetuptheKGBstate/militocracyissueItriedtofixitfromthe
firstversion,butobviouslydidntdoagoodenoughjobofthat.
Otherpointsfollowbelow.
From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Saturday,July23,201610:20AM
To:BrianDTaylor<bdtaylor@maxwell.syr.edu>
Subject:SilovikiandChangepaperreactions
Brian:
Thepaperproducesarathermixedimpression.Partsofitareverygood,whileother
partsareratherdiffuseandattimesrepetitive.Thepaperneedstightening.
Thefirsttwoparagraphscouldbeeliminatedwithoutanyharmtothepaper.Infact,
thefirstoneisquestionableandisalmostmythmaking,asharpdeparturefromyour
usualhardheadedanalysis.PutinisaKGBmandoesnotcomportwithsomeof
theknownfactsofhisbiospecifically,hewasntverygood(beingsenttoLeningrad
afterE.Germany,ratherthanMoscow,wastantamounttoaninvitationtoretire),he
resigned,andhewasreluctanttoreturntotheFSB.Partsofwhatfollowsconflate
theverythingsyouseektodebunkinthepaper(KGBvssiloviki).Andevenifitisa
milatocracy,itsnotaKGBstate.
The3rdparagraphstartstogetatwhatyouwanttosay.Reactive&dividedlater
followedbycautiousandconservative.Thatsaid,Ithinkallofthesecharacterizations
arearguable.
Yes,theyareprobablyallarguable.Itskindofhardtomakegeneralstatementsaboutfuture
behaviorabsentconcretescenariosandcircumstances.Thisisjustmybestguess,basedonpast
evidenceandcomparativelessons.Butperhapsyouwanttobemorespecificaboutthewaysin
whichtheyarearguable?
Page6:theexamplefromtheearlyninetieswouldbeokay,butonlyifyoucancome
upwithmorerecentexamplesofthisdiversity.
Fairpoint.Findingmorerecentexamplesisharder,giventhatthereisnooppositionintheDuma
anymore,liketherewasinthe90s.Icanpointtospecificpeople,likeformerKGBgeneralA.P.
Kondaurov,butitishardertoday.And,unlikeinthe1990s,wedonthavegoodsurveysofmilitary
officers.SoImleftwithanecdotesandexamples.
Oryoucoulddropitalltogethersincethenextparagraphmakesamoreimportant
pointandcalltomindthisgemfromPavlovskiy:
^:-""
^:03.09.2003
^:
""-,
.
.,-.
,,
,-
.,,..
.
...
Page9:thelastsentenceofthefirstfullparagraphreallyneedstobefleshedout,the
seguetoClubsareTrumpisabittoofasthere.Yousaythepowerandmoneyareof
fundamentalimportance,butyoudontsaywhy.
Fairenough.
Page13:IwouldntbesocertainthatstatecollapseissounlikelyinRussia.The
regimehasbecomemorebrittlesincePutinreturnedtothepresidency.Iwouldalso
notethatFrancedidnthaveaBonapartisttraditionbeforeNapoleoncameontothe
scene.
Moststatecollapseintheworldtodayhappensbecauseofnationalist/ethnicseparatism.Iseeno
basisforthatinRussia,withthepossibleexceptionofafewsmallregionsintheNorthCaucasus.
DemographicallyandgeographicallyitshardtoimagineanunravelingliketheSovietorYugoslav
collapse.
NotsurewhatFranceinthelate18thcenturytellsusabouttheprospectforamilitarycoupinRussia.
EveninplaceslikeTurkey,withapraetorianmilitaryorganizationalculture,andmultiplesuccessful
coupsinthelast60years,weseehowhardtheycanbetopulloff.Istillthinkthisistheleastlikely
scenarioforsilovikibringingaboutfundamentalpoliticalchangeinRussia.
Page15:NotclearwhyShoyguisoustedfromPutinsinnercircle-hesbeenon
most,ifnotall,ofthefishingtrips,forexample.
Yes,Ihedgethismoreinthebook.Somesayheisin,otherssayheisout,ormoreaccuratelywas
nevertrulyin(includingVennediktov).
Also,whenPutincreatedtheSKin2007itwassupposedtobesubordinatetotheGP,
hencetheacronymSKP.Itdidntbecomeindependentuntil2011whenthe2010law
cameintoeffect.
Yes,thanks.
Page16:ThecitationfromthatNovayapieceisaratherexplicitchallengetoyour
earlierargumentthattheresnothingtofearfromthesecuritybloc.
ImnotsureIinterpretthatquotethesamewaythatyoudo.Ishesaying,wecandealwithcrowds
easily?orishesaying,wedontexpecttohavetodealwithlargecrowdsor,inthesamevein,
problemswitheachotheraremuchmorelikelythanchallengesfromthemasses.
Page17&19:Silovikiinsiderwouldratherthancouldinthe
scenarioyououtlinehere.Ialsothinkyoudrawbetter
distinctionsbetweenregimeandsystemic/fundamentalchange.
DoyoumeanIneedtodrawthisdistinctionbetter?Orthatitisausefuldistinction,andneedstobe
highlightedmore?
Ofcourse,thisisyourpaper,Brian,andwearepreparedtoacceptitjustaboutasis.
Ithinktheruleisnomorethan20pages.
Ihopeyoufindtheaboveuseful.
b
Again,thanksverymuch.Ireallyappreciateyourclosereadingofit.Iprobablyonlyhavetimefor
anotherdayonthis,aftergettingbackfromvacation.Toomanyotherthingsarelooming,andIneed
tofinishthedamnbook(progresshasbeenmade,BTW).IwouldnotatallbeoffendedifThe
PowersThatBedecidethisisntgoodenough,orthatusefulforus,andsaynothanks.Asyouknow,I
willgetarevisedversionofthisoutlateratanyrate.
Bestwishes,
Brian

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