Trump 12

From: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.
gov>
Senttime: 10/08/201505:40:04AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>Fishel,Eugene<FishelE@state.gov>
RE:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasa
Subject:
genuinegreatpower)
ThanksreftoDawisha?:UnlikesomanyotherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesor
indulgeindippyconspiracytheories.Hisreliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin's
evolution.
From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,October08,20154:49AM
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretorevive
Russiaasagenuinegreatpower)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
Russia'sSnarlingStuntman
Russiaisdeclining,withtalentandcapitalinfullflight.Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,VladimirPutinistrumpingthe
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
Mr.Kotkin,authorof"Stalin,"isaPrincetonprofessorandaHooverInstitutionfellowatStanford.
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Knopf,572pages,$32.50
Russia'sdeclinecontinues.Beneaththebluster,elitesarejittery.Thepopulaceispridefulbutmiserable.Talent-notjust
capital-isinfullflight.Theregimehasnostrategybeyonditsownsurvival,andVladimirPutinhasbecomeasnarling
stuntmanwithasurgicallyenhancedappearanceandapropaganda-enhancedapprovalrating.
Yetdespitethiswretchedhand,Russia'sautocrathasbeentrumpingtheWest.Justlastweek,afterPresidentObama
gaveaspeechattheUnitedNations,Mr.PutinbeganbombingthepoliticalopponentsoftheSyrianbutcherBasharal-
Assadinthenameofcombating"terrorism."
StevenLeeMyers's"TheNewTsar:TheRiseandReignofVladimirPutin"providesacomprehensivelookatRussia's
would-besaviorandAmerica'snemesis.Muchoftheaccountisfamiliar:thePutinfamily'sshabbycommunalapartment
inpost-WorldWarIILeningradyoungVladimirasanindifferentstudentandcourtyardruffianthesuddendiscipline
instilledbymartialartshisobsessionwiththepopularfilmseries"ShieldandSword"(1968),whichinspiredadreamto
jointheKGB.ThetapontheshoulderthatfulfilledthatdreamcamewhilehewasalawstudentatLeningradState
University.Nextupwasspyschool,acareerpolicingthoughtinLeningradandthenaforeignassignmentinanEast
Germanbackwater.
Mr.Myers,whospentsevenyearsasaNewYorkTimescorrespondentinMoscow,digsthroughanimpressivelywide
rangeofmaterials,gatheringrevealingquotesfromlifelongloyalistsaswellasinsiderswhobrokeranks.Unlikesomany
otherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesorindulgeindippyconspiracytheories.His
reliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin'sevolution.
TheimplosionoftheEasternBlocandthenoftheSovietUnionin1989-91meantanewlifeforMr.Putinastopdeputyto
thedemocraticallyelectedmayorofSt.Petersburg,AnatolySobchak.TheKGBoperativetriedtomakeRussia'sversion
ofdemocracywork:WhenrivalsdeployeddirtytrickstofoilSobchak'sre-electioncampaigninthemid-1990s,Mr.Putin
indignantlywrotetoMoscowdemandingthattheKremlintake"decisiveactiontoendtheuseofthelaw-enforcement
authoritiesforpoliticalpurposes."
Hisnaiveappealfellflat,butconnectionssooncatapultedhimintothepresidentialadministrationinMoscow,andin1998
apromotionbyBorisYeltsinmadeMr.PutintheheadoftheKGB'ssuccessoragency.Hisascenttothepresidencyisits
ownsordidtale.
PresidentPutin'sfirstterm(2000-04)brimmedwithhopeandeconomicgrowth.Whenandwhyheabandonedhisefforts
atstructuralreformremainsamatterofcontroversy.
Mr.MyersapprovinglyquotesaletterwrittenbytheimprisonedoilmagnateMikhailKhodorkovskyin2004,inwhichhe
saidthatMr.Putin"isprobablyneitheraliberalnorademocrat,butheisstillmoreliberalanddemocraticthan70percent
ofourcountry'spopulation."ButthisassertionremainsunsubstantiatedbecauseMr.Myers'sbiographydoesn'texamine
Russiansociety.TheauthoralsoseemstolendsomesupporttothepopularnarrativewithinRussiaof"Western
betrayal,"pointingoutthatMr.PutinheldfourmeetingswithPresidentGeorgeW.Bushin2001,andallhegotwasa
week'snoticewhenWashingtonunilaterallyabrogatedtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty.Butwhatoftheexperienceof
rebuildingstatepowerinshapingMr.Putin'struculence?WhatoftheperennialconundrumofconfrontingtheWest's
abidingsuperiorityandRussia'sweakness?
FewpeoplewhohavehadabrushwithMr.Putincomeoffwellhere.Afterhisre-electiontoasecondtermin2004,the
investorBillBrowdertoldajournalistthat"peoplewillforgetinsixmonthsthatKhodorkovskyisstillsittinginjail"-andhe
andotherscontinuedtoinvestinthecountry.Similarly,JohnBrowne,thenCEOofBP,ishearddismissingthePutin
regime'sannihilationofMr.Khodorkovsky'sprivateoilcompanyYukoswiththecomment:"Nocountryhascomesofarin
suchashortspaceoftime."(BPlaterpartneredwithRosneft,thecompanythatstoleYukos.)
Mr.MyerslaysbarethehashofGeorgeW.Bush'slook-into-Mr.Putin's-soulRussiapolicy,whichculminatedinthe
consolidationofthepartitionofGeorgiain2008.HethenrecountstheblowupofPresidentBarackObama'sresetRussia
policy.
TheauthorremindsusthatSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonwarnedinDecember2012thatMr.Putin'sproposed
"EurasianUnion"soughttosubjugateitsformerpossessionsandaddedthat"wearetryingtofigureouteffectivewaysto
slowdownorpreventit."Mr.Putinsabotageditforherin2014,whenheseizedCrimeafromUkraine,consolidatinga
strongpro-EuropemajorityinKievandsendingchillsthroughthecapitalsofBelarusandKazakhstan.ButUkraineisnow
dismembered.
Countlesssecondarycharactersareintroducedknowledgeablyhere,butnonecometofull-bloodedlife.Eventhe
protagonistcanseemelusive.ContraMr.Myers,Mr.Putinisnota"tsar."Theambiguityofanysuccessionispotentially
themostdebilitatingaspectofhisrule,asitisforallauthoritarianregimes.Still,Mr.Myers'sportrait-withmaliceasMr.
Putin'sdefiningattribute-isdevastatingpreciselybecauseitisjudiciouslydrawn.
Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreatpower.Atonepoint,
Mr.Myersshows,Mr.Putinhimselfknewbetter."Itseemstoallofus-andIwilladmit,tomesometimesaswell-thatby
imposingstrictorderwithanironfist,wewillallbegintolivebetter,morecomfortably,moresecurely,"Mr.Putinobserved
in2002."Inactualfactthatcomfortwouldveryquicklypassbecausethatironfistwouldveryquicklybegintostrangleus."
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 10/15/201508:49:32AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:"[Ash]CARTER:U.S.willtake'allnecessarysteps'toCOUNTERRussia,"http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/ash-carter-warning-russia-
Subject:
airstrikes-syria-214805
From:JohnBDunlop
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"[Ash]CARTER:U.S.willtake'allnecessarysteps'toCOUNTERRussia,"http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/ash-carter-
warning-russia-airstrikes-syria-214805
And:PutincallsU.S.WEAKonSyriaasRussianairstrikescontinue,Bloomberg.com,10/15
And:NancyA.YOUSSEF,IRANandRussiareadytopoundAleppo,thedailybeast.com,10/15
And:TopCUBANgeneral,key[Cubanspetsnaz]forcesinSyriatoaidAssad,Russia,[U.AS.official]
sourcessay,foxnews.com,10/15
GeneralLeopoldoCintraFrias,headofCubasArmedForces,recentlyvisitedSyriatoleadagroupof
CubanmilitarypersonneljoiningforceswithRussiaintheirsupportofAssadOnWednesday,aU.S.
officialconfirmedtoFoxNewsthatCubanmilitaryandspecialforcesunitsareonthegroundinSyria,
citingevidencefromintelligencereports.
And:DonaldTRUMPsaysRussiaisnttoblameforMH17,despiteevidence,
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/14/politics/donaldtrumpmh17planerussians/
And:OntheRussiancriminalcaseagainstUkrainianPMYatsenyuk:TheChechenpastofYatsenyuk,
http://www.mk.ru/pring/article/1315265/
And:Washington[StateDept.]accusesRussia,militantsofintimidationofreligiousgroupsin
CRIMEA,DONBAS,unian.info,10/15
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 10/08/201501:49:19AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>EugeneFishel<FishelE@state.gov>
BCc: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuine
Subject:
greatpower)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Germanbackwater.
ownsordidtale.
policy.
dismembered.
Senttime: 10/05/201509:42:44AM
Subject: FW:MIDNIGHTEXPRESS.......CALLIT"VLAD-ORAMA"........
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Sunday,October04,20159:27PM
Subject:Fwd:MIDNIGHTEXPRESS.......CALLIT"VLAD-ORAMA"........
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at12:22AM
Subject:MIDNIGHTEXPRESS.......CALLIT"VLAD-ORAMA"........
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sun,Oct4,2015at5:48PM
Subject:RussiaCan'tSellItsSyriaPropaganda-Analysts
To:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj
<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
RussiaCan'tSellItsSyriaPropaganda[tothewest]
Analysts
ByDariaLitvinova
Oct.04201521:13
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-cant-sell-its-syria-propaganda--analysts/536932.html
AlmostassoonasthefirstreportsofRussianairstrikesinSyriahitthepress,PresidentVladimirPutinaccused
theWestoflaunchinganewassaultinaninformationwaragainstRussia.
Asthewarplanesbegantoattack,WesternjournalistsquestionedMoscow'smotives,offeringevidencethatMoscowwas
strikingnotonlytheIslamicState,butotherarmedgroupsinSyriafightingRussia'sally,PresidentBasharAssad.
ReportsalsoemergedofciviliandeathsinRussianbombingraids.
ButonThursday,adayafterthestrikesbegan,Putinwavedoffwhathecalled"informationattacks."
"Thefirstreportsofciviliancasualtiesappearedbeforeourplanestookoff,"Putinsaid,accordingtotheTASSnews
agency.
HiswordswerequicklypickedupbyRussianmedia.
"RussiaLaughsOff'Pseudo-Sensations'About'Bombed'CiviliansinSyria,"readaheadlineonSputnikInternational,
anEnglish-languagenewswebsiterunbythestate-ownedRossiyaSegodnyamediacompany.Meanwhile,claimsthat
Russiawastargetinganyonebutterroristswererefuted.
Russiahasstate-controlledmediatopushitsmessagebothinsideandoutsidethecountry.Butwhilethereisnodoubt
thatmostRussianswillreadilyagreewithwhateverPutinandthesepowerfulmediatellthem,analystssaidthat
toconvinceforeignerswouldbeanuphillbattle.ThephilosophyofRussianpropagandatotheoutsideworldhasbeen
toattackandundermineWesternnewsorganizationsandWesternleaders,nottodeliverRussia'smessage.
OneoftheKremlin'smostpowerfultoolsisRT,astate-fundedtelevisionstationthatbroadcastsinmultiplelanguages
andregions.Butthechannel"hasbeenworkingaccordingtoitsmainmodel,whichcanbedescribedas'everybodylies
andthereisnotruth,'"saidVasilyGatov,aRussianmediaanalystandvisitingfellowattheUSCAnnenbergCenter
onCommunicationLeadershipandPolicyinCalifornia.
Thistechnique"hasnotbeenuseful,andisunlikelytobeusefulinthefuture,"hetoldTheMoscowTimesinwritten
comments.
TheKremlindoesnothaveenoughresourcestoconvinceWesternsocietytobelieveitsnarrative,analystssaid.Instead,
thecountry'smediawillmaximizeeffortstopersuadeRussiansthatPutin'sinterventioninSyriaisanecessary"sacred
war"thesameschemethatwasusedduringtheUkraineconflictlastyear.
WesternNarrative
SoonafterRussianwarplanesbeganflyingsortiesonWednesday,Westernjournalistsbegantoreportevidence
ofciviliandeathsandattacksinterritorynotcontrolledbytheIslamicState,orISIS.
"TheU.S.believesRussiahaslauncheditsfirstairstrikesinSyriajusthoursafterthecountry'sparliamentapproved
VladimirPutin'srequestformilitaryintervention.[A]ctivistsinHomsandHamaprovinceshavepostedimages
andvideoonlineclaimingtoshowRussianplanesbombinggroupsofnon-ISISrebelswhoarefightingBasharal-Assad's
forces,"BritishnewspaperTheIndependentreportedWednesday.
"RussianairstrikeinSyriaTargetedCIA-BackedRebels,U.S.OfficialsSay,"readaheadlineinTheWallStreetJournal,
anAmericannewspaper,thesameday."Oneareahitwas[a]locationprimarilyheldbyrebelsreceivingfunding,arms,
[and]trainingfromCIAandallies,"saidthearticle'ssubheading.
TheGuardianwrotethat"Syrianactivists,civiliansandrebelsassertedthatRussianstrikeshadtargetedmoderateforces
whowereopposedtotheregimeofpresidentBasharAssad,aKremlinally.Thepresidentofanoppositiongroupsaid
thatatleast36civilians,includingwomenandchildren,werekilledinstrikesinHoms."
CNN,theU.S.newsnetwork,saidinanarticleonitswebsite,"AninternationalcoalitionisurgingRussiatoimmediately
ceaseattacksontheSyrianoppositionandciviliansandfocusinsteadonfightingtheISISterroristgroup."
RussianNarrative
TheRussianpropagandamachineresponded.StatetelevisionchannelsdevotedhoursofairtimetoRussianoperations
inSyria.Pro-KremlinbloggersandInternettrollsonthepayrolloftheauthoritiesimmediatelyexposednumerous"lies"
byforeignjournalists.EventheDefenseMinistrypostedseveralvideosofairstrikesaimingattherightenemy.
Vesti,astate-runtelevisionchannel,reported:"SeveralhoursafterthefirstRussianplanestookoff,mediabegan
todistributestatementsaboutairstrikeshittingciviliansandsayingtheterrorists[hit]wereinfactso-calledSyrian
oppositionsquads.Russianmilitaryofficialscalledthesereports'pseudo-sensations'[thatwere]preparedinadvance."
RT'swebsitepublishedanop-edcolumnbyNeilClark,aBritishjournalist."NosoonerhadRussianplanestakenoff
tobombISISterroristsandtheirassociatesinSyria,claimsmadebytheWest'santi-Russialobbystartedtofloodin
onlytoberepeatedinmuchoftheWesternmainstreammedia,"Clarkwrote.Thecolumnconcludedthataninformation
waragainstRussiahadbeenlaunched.
WhenaskedwhetherRThadastrategyinthisproclaimedinformationwar,thechannel'spressservicesaid,"RT
correspondentsareactuallyonthegroundinDamascusandLatakia.Meanwhile,weseeWesternoutletsquoting
casualtynumbersusingvideosofallegedRussianstrikeswhileadmittingthattheycannotestablishtheirveracity."
"Hystericalanti-Russiancampaigningisdisheartening,butnolongersurprising,"thepressservicesaidinwritten
comments.
NoChanceatConvincingtheWest
ThereisnocoordinatedefforttoattackRussiainWesternmedia,saidGatov.
WesternnewsorganizationsmaybesuspiciousofMoscow'sactionsinSyria,buttheydonothave"thecoordinationthat
Russianmediahaveshown,'working'thetopicasifoncommand,"accordingtoGatov.
"FortheU.S.andsomeEuropeanmedia,theissueofSyriahasbeenimportantforalongtime,andtheyfollowevery
eventtheremuchmorethoroughlythanRussianmedia,"hesaid.
AsfortheRussianpropagandaoutletstryingtoshiftpublicopinionintheWest,Gatovsaidtheirinfluencewastooweak
tochangeanything.
"RT'sinfluenceontheaudienceintheEnglish-speakingworldisnotstrong,"hesaid."Sputnik[International]alsohasits
audience,butitismarginalintermsofitsimportanceandpoliticalviews."
ResearchintotheglobalinfluenceofRussia'sforeignnewsservicessupportsGatov'sclaims."Accordingtoan
investigationcarriedoutby[state-runnewsagency]RIANovostiin2013,theRTtelevisionchannelissignificantly
overstatingitspopularityandisnotworththemoneythestateassignstoitfromthebudget(whichisaround14billion
[rubles,$212million]in2015,accordingtoRT),"AlexeiKovalyov,aformerRIANovostiemployee,wroteinhisblog
onMedium.com,citinganarticlefromtheU.S.DailyBeastnewswebsite.
TheKremlinsimplyhasnoresourcespowerfulenoughtopersuadetheWest,agreedNikolaiSvanidze,aprominent
journalistandmemberofthepresidentialHumanRightsCouncil.
"There'sRT,butthat'sit.RTdoesquiteathoroughjob,butit'snotenoughtosuccessfullyadvocate[Russia'spoint
ofview]inWesterncountriesthathavehugenumbersofpowerfulmediaoutlets,"hetoldTheMoscowTimesina
telephoneinterview.
Russia'spropagandamachinehasalwaysbeenaimedfirstandforemostattheRussianaudience,Svanidzesaid,
andthemethodsitisnowusingweredesignedandtestedduringtheUkrainianconflict.
"WearefightingforallthegoodintheworldagainsttheU.S.,whichrepresentsallthebadintheworldthat'show
anaverageRussianseesthesituation,"hesaid.
ButunlikeinUkraine,whereRussiaactedwithoutsupportfromanyothernation,theKremlinhasalliesandworking
relationshipsinSyria.NewsreportssayMoscowhassetupajointinformationcenterwithSyria,IraqandIraninBaghdad
tohelpcoordinateactionagainsttheIslamicState,andRussiahasestablishedacommunicationschannelwiththeU.S.
toprevent"incidents"betweenthetwocountries'warplanesinSyria,accordingtotheBBC.
DmitryOreshkin,anindependentpoliticalanalyst,saidtheKremlinwasplayingtwosidestryingtodecrease
internationaltensionandsomehowsolvethesituationquietlybyshowingthewilltocollaboratewithothergovernments,
butatthesametimeescalatingmasshysteriaabouttheconflictinsideRussia.
"Itishardtoexplain,"OreshkintoldTheMoscowTimesinaphoneinterview."Thereasoniseitheranideologicaldivision
insidetheelite,orjustacomplexgame,inwhichtheytrytolooklawabidingandnicetotheWest,whileinsidethecountry
cultivatingamorebrutalimage."
Subject:PutinAimsatSyria-andStrikesEurope
Argument
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/02/syria-putin-assad-russia-ukraine/?
utm_content=bufferf5b57&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
PutinAimsatSyriaandStrikesEurope
Takenote,Europe:BybombingSyria,PutinhasfinallyputRussiabackatthecenteroftheworld.
ByBenjaminHaddad
BenjaminHaddadisaresearchfellowattheHudsonInstitute.,HannahThoburnHannahThoburnisanAdjunctFellowat
theHudsonInstituteandservedasaPeaceCorpsVolunteerinDzhankoy,Crimea.
October2,2015
OnSept.30,Russianjetsbeganairstrikesonrebel-heldterritoriesintheSyriancitiesofHama,Homs,andLatakia.Thisshould
havecomeasnosurprise.DuringhisspeechattheU.N.GeneralAssemblyonMonday,VladimirPutinlaidouthisplanfor
agenuinelybroadinternationalcoalitionagainstterrorism,acatch-alltermthatnowappearstoincludetheIslamicState,al-
NusraFront,andtheFreeSyrianArmyanyoneandeveryonewhoopposesSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Thebombings
followedweeksofmilitarybuildupinSyriaandyearsofverbalandlethalsupportforRussiasallyAssad.
MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutthemultiplicityofpotentialmotivesbehindPutinsmilitarybuildupinSyria:defendinghisinterestsin
theMiddleEast,shoringupAssadsregime,makingRussiathepowerbrokerintheSyrianconflict,sustaininghispowerathome,
andfillingapowervacuumleftbyU.S.disinterest.Theseareallcorrect,tovaryingdegrees.Buttheyunderestimatethegeographic
extentofthatpowervacuum.BeyondtheMiddleEast,PutinsmoveinSyriacouldalsostrengthenhimonasecondfront:Europe.
Dividinganddisruptingthepost-ColdWarEuropeansecurityarchitecturehasalwaysbeenoneofPutinsmajorstrategic
goals.WhilethismaynotbethedrivingforcebehindhismovesinSyria,itcertainlyhasthepotentialtobeoneofitssideeffects.
UnlikeEuropeanleadersthemselves,theRussianpresidenttakestheEUstransformativepowerseriously,especiallyinhis
neighborhood.WhyelsewouldhehavespentsomucheffortfightingUkraines2013attempttonegotiateasimpletrade
agreementwiththeEU?
ForMoscow,aEuropeunitedbehindtheauspicesoftheEUorNATOrepresentsadangerouspotentialopponentandathreat
toitscorruptautocracy.Nowonder,then,thattheKremlinhasbeguntofinanceandpromotenationalistandanti-EUpolitical
parties,extenditspropagandaenterpriseintoEurope,andpursueenergyprojectstopitEuropeannationsagainsteachother.A
strongtransatlanticallianceislikewiseundesirablefortheKremlin.Asthetiesthatbinditfray,Russiasrelativepowerintheregion
growsstronger.PutinsdecisiontoactinSyria,coupledwithAmericanvacillation,hasofferedhimyetanotheropportunitytodrive
awedgebetweenEuropeansandAmericans.
Inrecentmonths,EuropehasbeguntofeelthecollateraldamagefromtheconflictinSyria.Asitsgovernmentsstruggletofinda
wayforwardwiththerefugeecrisisandastheterroristthreatfromEuropean-bornjihadisreturningfromtheMiddleEastincreases,
publicpressuretoformulatearesponsetotheSyriancrisishasintensified.PollsshowthatalargemajorityoftheFrenchfavor
interventionagainsttheIslamicStateinSyria.Thereisevenincreasingsupportforbootsonthegroundamongwar-weary
Britons.OnSept.27,FranceannounceditsfirstairstrikeagainstanIslamicStatetrainingcampinDeiral-Zor,Syria,claimingself-
defenseagainstattacksbeingpreparedonEuropeansoil.FrancehadpreviouslyrefrainedfromstrikesonSyriansoilover
concernsthattheywouldreinforceAssadsregime.
ThefewEuropeanleadersstillholdingastronglineonthenecessityofAssadsousterappearincreasinglyisolated.AttheGeneral
Assembly,FrenchPresidentFranoisHollandespokeunambiguouslyoftheconnectionbetweenAssadsrepressionandtheriseof
theIslamicState,callingtheleaderthetheoriginofthisproblem[who]cannotbepartofthesolution.Inprinciple,Britainsprime
minister,DavidCameron,andGermanChancellorAngelaMerkelalsoseeAssadsousterasarequirementforasolutiontothe
Syriancrisis.InaninterviewonSept.29,CameronsaidheagreeswiththeU.S.positionthatAssadcouldplayaroleina
transitionalgovernment,butheresistedthenotionofworkingwiththeSyrianpresidenttodefeattheIslamicStateandbackshis
departure.Merkel,similarly,hascalledfortalkswithAssad.Forhispart,ItalianPrimeMinisterMatteoRenziseemstoback
RussiassupportofAssad,saying,ItisimpossibletoachievepeacewithoutRussiainvolved.
Doubtless,theportionofPutinsvisittoParisonOct.2thatdealtwithSyriawasdesignedtomoveHollandeawayfromthe
AmericanstanceandintolinewiththeKremlin.Atthispoint,thatremainsunlikely.
ForEuropeans,joiningPutinscoalitiontosaveAssadwouldbeakintosanctioningbombingrunsthatwillonlyexacerbatethe
refugeecrisisandincreasethenumberofstrikestargetingWestern-backedrebelsandcivilians.
ButwhiletheFrenchgovernmenthascalledouttheRussiansfortheirhypocrisy,Washingtonappearsmuchmorehesitantto
confrontMoscow.HowlongcantheUnitedStatesexpectitsalliestosupportalineitbarelycarestodefend?Itsfailureto
interveneafterSyriacrossedtheredlineontheuseofchemicalweapons,leavingitspartnershanging,hadalreadyerodedits
credibility.Washingtonthenturneddownitsalliescallsformorerobustinvolvement,fromenforcingno-flyzones
toprovidingwidersupportformoderaterebels.ThenewfactsonthegroundcreatedbyRussiawillsoonrenderallthoseprevious
optionsobsolete.
ShouldRussiasnarrativeonSyriacarrytheday,theconsequenceswilltestthereliabilityofU.S.leadership.European
governmentsthathavespentpoliticalcapitalsupportingWashingtonspositionfromthestartoftheSyriancrisis,nowpressuredto
prioritizethefightagainsttheIslamicStateinsteadofoustingAssad,arelefttoponderifPutinhasbeenrightallalong.Isheamore
reliableallythanWashington?Inanycase,RussiasmoveislessofanenigmatoEuropeanpolicymakersthanitistotheWhite
House.IfI[were]RussiaandIran,Iwouldactexactlythesameway,aseniorEuropeandiplomattoldForeignPolicy.
But,moredangerously,thisgoesbeyondSyria.RussianinvolvementinSyriaisinextricablylinkedtotheongoingconflictin
Ukraine.
Miraculously,Russian-backedviolenceineasternUkrainedieddownattheverysametimethattheRussianmilitarybegan
expandingitspresenceinSyria.DespitetherelativequietineasternUkraine,thebloodshedcontinues,andOSCE
monitorsbelievethattheRussian-backedseparatistsgrowstrongerbytheday.ShouldtheUkrainiansituationremaincalm,
Europeanleaderswillhaveahardtimeexplainingwhytheymustmaintainsanctionsontheverycountrytheyrecountingonto
solvetheSyrianproblem.GeneratingsuchconfusionissurelyoneofPutinsgoals.
SanctionsdontcomecheapforEuropeaneconomies.TheEuropeanCommissionprojectsthatUkraine-relatedsanctionscost
Europeaneconomies0.3GDPpointsin2014and2015anon-negligiblecut,wheneurozoneGDPisonlyexpectedtogrowby
1.5percentin2015.Inshort,thesanctionsregimeisexpensive,divisive,andEuropeanleadersarebeginningtomakenoiseabout
theirdesiretorebuildtraderelationswithRussia.Theirbusinesscommunitiesdemandit,andEuropesattentionspanforthe
conflictinUkraineiswaning.
WeakenedEuropeanresolveonsanctionsplaysrightintoPutinshands:Theremovalofsanctionswouldbothaidhisreentryinto
politeinternationalsocietyandremovetheheavypressureonhiseconomy.Inessence,heisaskingEuropeandtheUnitedStates
toforgetaboutUkraine,creatingadefactofrozenconflict,inexchangeforhisassistancewiththeSyrianconflagration.Itisalready
inmotion.InParis,theRussianpresidentdiscussedbothissueswithhisEuropeancounterpartsamiddiplomaticrumorsofnew
plansthatwouldfurtherweakentherequirementsthatRussiaanditsproxiesineasternUkraineagreedtointheMinskII
protocols.
AlthoughPeterAltmaier,Merkelschiefofstaff,hasrejectedtheideathatcooperationwithRussiaonSyriawouldchangeBerlins
positiononsanctions,thishasalreadybeenproposedbySigmarGabriel,Merkelscoalitionpartnerandeconomyminister.The
EUssanctionsregimecomesupforrenewalinJanuary2016countrieslikeHungary,Greece,andSlovakiahavealready
expressedtheiropinionthatsanctionsareunproductive.
EvenmoreworrisomeforthefutureofEuropeanliberalpolities,PutinsmovesinSyriawillonlyemboldenthevoicesthatturnto
MoscowasanalternativetoWashingtonandBrussels.Thepopulist,nativist,andanti-EUpoliticalpartiesthathavegainedin
popularityinthepastyearshaveactivelydigestedandrelayedRussianpropagandatotheirfollowings.
PutinsSyriaploywillprovidefueltothosewhohavecriticizedtheconfrontationwithRussiathathasanimatedEuropean
chancelleriessincetheannexationofCrimeainMarch2014.RelationswithRussia,aswellasPutinspolarizingpersona,have
increasinglybecomeadomesticpoliticalissueinmanyEuropeancountries.LeaderslikeBritainsNigelFarageorFrancesMarine
LePenhavelongcalledforanalliancewithPutinagainstIslamicterrorism.Putinhasgleefullyeggedallthison,arguingthatEurope
standsfornothingbutnihilismanddecadenceandthatitsnationalvaluesandsovereigntyarebeingundermined.InaEurope
wrackedbyself-doubt,thismessageisstartingtoresonate.
AstemptingasitcouldbeforWashingtontooutsourcetheresolutionofexternalcrisestonationslikeRussiathatitseesasmore
directlyaffectedbytheissue,thesedecisionscannotbeviewedinisolationfromoneanother.Afterhisrecentmove,VladimirPutin
seemslikeamorecoherent,reliableplayerthanWashington.ButthecostofAmericanrestraintisexpandingbeyondtheMiddle
EastandmaydamageEuropeanandtransatlanticunityformanyyearstocome.
Subject:VladimirPutiniscelebratinghisdiplomatictriumphinNewYork.ButnotallRussiansarethrilled.
VladimirPutiniscelebratinghisdiplomatictriumphinNewYork.ButnotallRussiansarethrilled.
ByAnnaNemtsova
AnnaNemtsovaisaMoscow-basedcorrespondentforNewsweekandtheDailyBeast,coveringRussiaandtheformerSoviet
states.Sheisalsothewinnerofthe2012PersephoneMielFellowship.
October3,2015
OlgaRomanovasoundeddepressed.AharshcriticofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,shedjustbeenwatchingTVnews
footagefromNewYorkCitythatshowedPutinandBarackObamaclinkingchampagneglasseslikeapairofoldfriends.
Russiasstate-dominatedmediatrumpetedthemeetingbetweenthetwoleaders,whichcamesoonafterPutinstriumphant
appearanceattheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly,asevidencethatMoscowsrecentdiplomaticisolationhadcometoanend.
HemanagedtomakeadealwiththeWestandgetoutofthedoghouse,Romanovatoldme.Shewasntexactlyhappyabout
thenews.OnethingisabsolutelyclearPutinisforever.Iwillbe75whenhegoesaway,ifIevenlivetoseethatday.
Putinsadmirerswhoare,ofcourse,plentifulinRussiagreetedtheirpresidentsseemingrehabilitationwithenthusiasm.They
sharehisbeliefthatMoscowdeservestheWestsrespectforitsprincipledstandinSyria,wherePutinhasvowedtodoanythinghe
cantopropuptheregimeofKremlinallyBasharal-Assad.ButthehappinessofPutinsnationalistbasewasmirroredbythe
despairofRussiasurbanintelligentsia,thesamepeoplewhoparticipatedinhugepublicdemonstrationsagainstPutinsgovernment
in2011and2013.TheyrealsothepeoplewhomakeupthecoreaudienceofradiostationEkhoMoskvy.Whenthestation
polleditslistenersrightafterPutinstriptotheUnitedStates,62percentofthemconcludedthatthepresident,buoyedupbyhis
latestforeignpolicysuccesses,wouldnowbeabletostayinofficeaslongasheliked.
ThesedaysRomanovaandhercolleaguesspendmuchoftheirtimewonderingwhichofthecountrysfewremainingliberal
politicianswillbethenexttofaceanattackfromthegovernment.OnenamecurrentlybruitedaboutisthatofAnatolyChubais,the
headoftheRussianNanotechnologyCorporation,astate-ownedcompany.Inthe1990s,ChubaishadbeenPresidentYeltsins
chiefofstaffandhisfirstdeputyprimeminister,postsheusedtofocusoneconomicreformsandprivatization.AfterPutinsriseto
power,ChubaiswasoneofthefewYeltsinconfidantestoretainahighpositioninthenewpoliticalestablishment.Butsome
Russianliberalsfearthatevensuchaformerlypowerfulmanmightnowbevulnerable.
AnybodyfromarichMoscowbusinessmantoaSyrianrefugeewithoutanypaperworkcanfallvictimtoinjusticeandgoto
jailtoday,saidhumanrightsactivistSvetlanaGannushkina.Thestateinstitutionsdontfunction.Thecourtsystemfailsto
implementlaws.Andherworriesarentjustabouthumanrights.Assheseesit,Russiasgovernmentisnolongercapableof
safeguardingthenationalinterest.
Forher,thenewsthatRussianwarplaneshadbegunbombingrebeltargetsinSyriaapparentlykillingciviliansalongtheway
presagedendlessdisaster,anew,Afghanistan-likeMiddleEasternquagmire.Todaysleadershipisdoingeverythingtobreak
Russiaintopieces,shesaid.
Between2002and2012,Gannushkina,theleaderandco-founderofacivicorganizationthatprovidesaidtorefugees,wasa
memberofthePresidentialCouncilfortheDevelopmentofCivilSocietyandHumanRightsfirstunderPutin,andthenunderhis
(temporary)successor,DmitryMedvedev.RecentlyGannushkinasorganization,whichhasprovidedlegalsupporttothousandsof
refugeesfromUkraineandtheMiddleEast,wasdeclaredtobeaforeignagentunderaharshnew2012lawaimedatrestricting
westernassistancetoRussianorganizationsthatworkinsensitiveareas.Thatclassificationdeprivedhergroup,theCivic
AssistanceCommittee,ofmostofitsvitalgrantsfromforeignorganizations.Sincethen,Gannushkinaandhercolleagueshave
struggledtohelptheircharges,attimesevencontributingtheirownmoney.
TheCivicAssistanceCommitteeisjustoneof94organizationsthathavebeendeclaredforeignagentsbytheRussianMinistryof
Justiceoverthepastthreeyears.OnThursday,theoldestmemberofPutinshumanrightscouncil,88-year-oldactivistand
historianLyudmilaAlekseyeva,askedthejet-laggedPutintoexplaintothecouncilwhybusinessesareappreciatedforbringing
investmentstoRussia,whilenon-profitswhouseWesternmoneytohelpRussiancitizensaredeemedworthyofpersecution.Putin
didnotrespond.
Theliberalsdespairisplain.ButPutinstriumphinNewYorkalsoleftsomeotherRussiansconfused.
CommentingontheRussianleadersimageattheU.N.,theindependentRussianTVchannelDozhdtookasarcastictone,
describingPutinscharmoffensiveasawell-rehearsedballetstagedbytheKremlin.Inthefirstact,Putinopenedanewlyrestored
mosqueinMoscowthecitysbiggesttogetherwithhisallies,TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogan,Palestinianleader
MahmoudAbbas,andKaszakhstaniPresidentNursultanNazarbayev.ThesecondacttookplaceinNewYork,wherePutinis
tryingtosay[thatheis]thenew,peacefulleaderofanewanti-HitlercoalitionIamlegitimateandAssadislegitimate,as
Rainseditor-in-chiefMikhailZygarputitsarcastically.
DumadeputyRobertSchlegel,amemberoftherulingUnitedRussiaparty,admittedfeelingabitbewilderedaboutPutinsmeeting
withObamaanditsSyrianaftermath.Icannotdescribeonefeelingitwasawiderangeofmixedemotions.Thenegotiationsgave
usaweakhopethatthetensioninthesituation[Russiasisolation]wouldbereleased,butrightafterthatweheartheU.S.blaming
Russiaforshellingpeacefulcitiesonterritorywheretherearenopeacefulcities,hesaidinaninterviewonThursday.Schlegel
addedthathewasdeeplydisgustedtoseehowthecountriesheblamedformakingamessintheMiddleEastaretreating
Russia.
AmongthosetakenabackbytheimagesofanewRussian-Americanrapprochementweremembersoftheseparatistmilitiasin
easternUkraine.UntilhesawthepicturesofPutinandObamaactingfriendly,peoplelikeSergei,amemberofarebelmilitiain
Sloviansk,sawtheU.S.asanenemy,alongwithUkraine.Myworstexpectationsbecameareality,hetoldmeonthephone.I
alwaysthoughtthattheydflushusdownthetoilet,butIcouldntimaginethatPutinandObamawouldbecomefriendsafterour
war,afterallthatslaughter,afterwevealllostsomanyfriends.
AsforPutinsmosthardcoreRussiansupporters?SomepreferredtoignorethePutin-Obamacourtship,undertheassumptionthat
itwontlastverylong.DeputyPrimeMinisterDmitryRogozindidnotdeigntotweetanyoftheKremlinsimagesofthetwo
leadersshakinghands.YuriKrupnov,anadviserforPutinssecurityhawks,expressedambivalence,sayingthattheastonishing
imagesfromNewYorkcouldmeananything.Onethinghewassureof,though:thattheattentiontointernationalcriseswilldistract
thepublicfromtheirdomesticconcerns:Allthedomesticissuesandcontradictionsthatfueltheprotestmovementwillbepushed
downonthelistofpriorities,hesaid.Andthat,perhaps,wasPutinsgoalallalong.
Subject:Putin'sending150,000soldierstoSyria'toWIPEOUTevilIslamicState'[GoodLuck.....Vlad!!!
Putin'sending150,000soldierstoSyriatoWIPEOUTevilIslamicState'
VLADIMIRPutinispreparingtosend150,000troopstoSyriainabidtowipe
outtheevilIslamicStateonceandforall.
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/468212/Putin-ISIS-Islamic-State-
Syria-Raqqa-troops-soldiers-air-strike-jets-military
ByScottCampbell/Published4thOctober2015
THEEND:ISIScouldnowfaceeliminationfromhundredsofthousandsof
Russiantroops
Aninsiderrevealed:"ItisveryclearthatRussiawantstosweepupthe
westofthecountry,takingRaqqaandalltheoilandgasresourcesaround
Palmyra.
"ThisisfastbecomingaracetoRaqqa-tosecuretheoilfieldstheyneed
tocleansetheregionofinsurgents,andtheIScapitalisvitaltodo
that."
ItcomesadayafterRussianjetsobliteratednineISISoutpostsinjust24
hoursusingbunker-bustingbombs.
Sovietjetspoundedterroristtargetsandblewupacommandcentre,
potentiallykillingdozensoffighters.
Confirmingthesuccessfulraids,AndreiKartapolovfromtheRussianarmy
vowedtorampupthepressure,saying:"Wewillnotonlycontinuestrikes...
Wewillalsoincreasetheirintensity."
AndRussianDefenceMinistryspokesmanIgorKonashenkovsaid:"Overthepast
24hours,SukhoiSu-34andSu-24Mfighterjetshaveperformed20sortiesand
hitnineIslamicStateinstallations.
"Abunker-bustingBETAB-500airbombdroppedfromaSukhoiSu-34bombernear
Raqqahaseliminatedthecommandpostofoneoftheterrorgroups,together
withanundergroundstoragefacilityforexplosivesandmunitions.
"Theseandotherhighlyexactmeansofattackinrecentdayshavebeenused
totargetobjectsofIslamicStateterrorists:commandposts,storesof
weaponsandoilproducts,workshopswhereweaponsofsuicidebombersare
made."
REUTERS
WIPEOUT:Russiasaidithadcarriedout20airstrikesinjust24hours
DavidCameroninitiallygavetheRussianairstrikesacautiouswelcomeand
saidtheUKwouldneedtolook"verycarefully"atPutin'soperations.
Butyesterdayhewarnedtheinterventionismakingthesituationworseand
helpingtosupportthe"butcher"presidentBasharAssad.
SeperatelyMrCameronpledgedto"beefup"theSASanddoublethenumberof
BritishdronestocombatISISmilitantsinaninterviewaheadoftoday's
Conservativeconference.
ThePrimeMinistersaidinvestmentinspecialforcesandsurveillancewas
essentialtomeetingtheterroristthreatfacingtheUK.
HerevealedthattheUKwillbuyafleetof20newProtectordronescapable
oftargetingISextremistsinIraqandSyria.

Subject:morePUTINbacklash>Al-QaedawarnRussian'invaders'thatSyriawillbecometheir'GRAVEYARD'
Al-QaedawarnRussian'invaders'thatSyriawillbecometheir'GRAVEYARD'
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/609806/Al-Qaeda-Russian-Syria-warning-Islamic-State
AL-QAEDAhasissuedachillingwarningtoRussianforcesastheycontinuetolaunchairstrikesinSyriaasIslamistsoffer
bountiesoncapturedsoldiers.
Now,Jabhatal-Nusra,aSyrianmilitancyloyaltoal-Qaeda,claimthatRussia'smilitaryinvolvementamountstoaninvasion,one
theywillusetorecruitnewmembers.
TheterrorgroupwanttoevokememoriesofthefailedSovietinvasionofAfghanistantogalvanisesupport.
ModeraterebelsbackedbyWesternpowershavewarnedthatRussia'sactionwillonlyservetoradicaliseordinarySyrians.
AbuYassinal-Homsi,amemberofthemoderateAhraral-Shamrebelgroup,saidthatcivilianskilledinairstrikeswillpushlocals
tothemilitants.
HetoldtheTelegraph:TheygavepeoplenochoicebuttojointhemostpowerfulforcetofighttheRussianinvasion.
"WehavelostmentoNusraandIknowotherswhowanttogo.
ThefailedSovietinvasioninAfghanistanhasleftabittertastewithmanyIslamists
Also,inanonlineclipuploadedthisweek,AbdullahAl-Muhaisini,aNusrafighter,said:"OhRussianpeople,didyouforgetthe
Afghanquagmire?
"Doyouwanttoenteranewquagmire?ThepeopleoftheLevantwillstanduptoyou.
"RussiaremainsacountrywhosewingswerecutoffinthelandoftheAfghans.
"TodayitenteredSyria,soSyriawillbecomeagraveyardforinvaders."
ModerateSyrianrebelshavewarnedPutinhisplanwillbackfire
InrecentweeksatleasttworadicalIslamistgroupsbasedinformerSovietstates-UzbekistanandChechnya-have
pledgedsupporttoAl-Qaeda.
OnThursday,aprominentspiritualleaderandfinancierofthetheNusraFrontissuedabountyworthmorethan10,000forthe
captureofaRussiansoldierinSyria.
AbuHassanal-Kuwaitideclared:"TotheheroicMujahideenbrothers,aprizeofamillion[Syrianpounds]toanyonewhotakes
hostageaRussiansoldier."
LaithAlkhouri,directorofresearchandanalysisattheinternetmonitoringgroupFlashpointIntel,saidthatthebounty"wasmeant
asaPRcampaigntoattractmorejihadists".
Hesaid:"ThemotivationtocaptureaRussiansoldierisnotnecessarilygoingtobethefinancialreward.
"It'snotamassiveamountofmoney,butthatkindofmoneycanreallyfacilitatethemovementandoperationsforalotofsoldiers
anditactuallyissignificantforSyriansthemselves."
"FortheNusraFront,Russia'sinterventionisagoodopportunitytobolsteritsrecruitmentandtostartunifyingthemosaicof
foreignfightersthatarefightingtheregime.
"Thefactthatal-Qaeda,viaitsofficialbranchinSyria,isonceagainfightingRussianforces,decadesaftertheUSSRwasdefeated
inAfghanistan,isalsoapowerfulimagethatcouldservetounifyjihadistgroupsinnorthernSyria.
"NusrawillmostcertainlytrytousethisimageandanyoperationagainstRussianforcesincludingthekidnappingofaRussian
soldiertogainmomentuminthedeadlycompetitionwithIslamicState[ISIS]."
Senttime: 10/08/201501:50:50AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
GoodStufffromKotkin:ReviewofMyers(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreat
Subject:
power)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Germanbackwater.
ownsordidtale.
policy.
dismembered.
From: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Senttime: 10/08/201505:40:04AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>Fishel,Eugene<FishelE@state.gov>
RE:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasa
Subject:
genuinegreatpower)
ThanksreftoDawisha?:UnlikesomanyotherauthorswhotakeonMr.Putin,herefusestocherrypickanecdotesor
indulgeindippyconspiracytheories.Hisreliable,wealth-of-detailsapproachcapturesthezigsandzagsofMr.Putin's
evolution.
From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretorevive
Russiaasagenuinegreatpower)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Germanbackwater.
ownsordidtale.
policy.
dismembered.
Senttime: 10/08/201501:50:50AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
GoodStufffromKotkin:ReviewofMyers(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuinegreat
Subject:
power)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Germanbackwater.
ownsordidtale.
policy.
dismembered.
Senttime: 10/06/201509:31:13AM
FW:[VLAD-O-RAMA.....THESERIES]FalseProphetsataPremium.....'TheBigScare'alaLennyB.....WDintheHuntforCzarVlad's
Subject:
'AchillesHeel'......WallyPincusinWSJSeesQuagmireScenarioPlayingOut[HopeistheLastRefugeof-------].....EUROP...
Attachments: 150929_deGalbert_SanctionsRussia_Web.pdf
Sent:Tuesday,October06,20159:13AM
Subject:Fwd:[VLAD-O-RAMA.....THESERIES]FalseProphetsataPremium.....'TheBigScare'alaLennyB.....WDintheHuntforCzar
Vlad's'AchillesHeel'......WallyPincusinWSJSeesQuagmireScenarioPlayingOut[HopeistheLastRefugeof-------].....EUROP...
Date:Tue,Oct6,2015at12:00PM
Subject:[VLAD-O-RAMA.....THESERIES]FalseProphetsataPremium.....'TheBigScare'alaLennyB.....WDintheHuntfor
CzarVlad's'AchillesHeel'......WallyPincusinWSJSeesQuagmireScenarioPlayingOut[HopeistheLastRefugeof-------
].....EUROPEANSANCTIONSREPORT[PDF]
To:
Date:Tue,Oct6,2015at11:43AM
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at9:06PM
Subject:Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?[OhBOY!!!Nowweareinreal
trouble!!!WD]
[ED:"TheAgeoftheFalseProphet"????]
Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?
ImageCredit:
Publishedby:DanCalabreseonMondayOctober5th,2015
http://www.caintv.com/i-will-defend-christianity-aro

Da.
Afriendofminerespondedtotheheadlineasfollows:"Hitlersaidthesamethingin1933."
Lestyougetconceptsconfused,Idon'tthinkPutinistalkingaboutridinginshirtlessonahorsetodefendtherightsofChristian
bakeriesandflorists,nortosavethewould-bevictimsofChristian-hatinggunmen.Butthethreathereferencesisnotinsiginificant,
existingmainlyofcourseintheMiddleEastandcomingfromradicalIslamistsources.TheChristianPostreportsthatmany
ChristiansinSyriaarepleasedtoseePutininterveningonBasharAssad'sbehalfbecausetheyfiguretheirlotisbetterwithAssad
thenitwouldlikelybewithwhoevermightreplacehim.ThesubsequentpresentationofPutinasabigsupporterofChristiansin
generalisabitrichtosaytheleast:
Afterdeliveringthefacts,MetropolitanHilarionaskedPutintomakeprotectionanddefenseofChristianityaroundtheglobea
majorpartofhisforeignpolicy.
And,asreportedbyInterfax,Putinreplied,"Youneedn'thaveanydoubtthatthat'sthewayitwillbe,"assuringHilarionthat
RussianforeignpolicywoulddefendChristiansfrompersecutionabroad.
Putin'srecentactionsseemtoconfirmhispromise.Lastweek,PutinvetoedaU.N.motioncallingforSyrianleaderBasharal-
Assadtostepdown.SyrianChristiansreceivedthisasgoodnews.AssadisoftheAlawitesectofIslam.AlawitesandChristians
arebothreligiousminoritiesinSyria.SyrianChristiansfeelthatsharingthisminoritystatusmeansAssadwillprovidethemwith
protection.ASyrianChristianwomaneventoldTheGlobalPost,"ThankGodforRussia.WithoutRussiawearedoomed."
PutinhaslongbeenasupporterofChristianityandChristianvalueswithinRussia.HehascalledfortheChurchtoplayalargerrole
incitizens'sociallives,betterreligionclassesinschools,andtelevisionprogramsemphasizingreligiousvalues.
It'snewstomethatblatantlandgrabs,cronycapitalismandsuppressionofpoliticaldissentwereChristianvalues,butmaybethe
RussianBibletranslationsarealittledifferent.
Buthere'swhatyoucan'tdeny:Peoplewhofeelthreatenedwillgravitatetowardsomeonetheythinkmighthavethestrengthand
thetemerity-ifnotnecessarilythevirtue-toprotectthem.Who'sgoingtodothatinWashington?ObviouslynotBarackObama,
whocan'tevenbringhimselftomentionthattheOregonmassshootertargetedChristians,butwillbeonlytoohappytocastigate
Christiansoverstuffthathappenedmorethan1,000yearsago.
Peoplewilllooktoastrongmanwhentheyfeelthereisnovirtuous,principledleaderavailable.YouhearalotofAmerican
conservativesofferingexpressionsofrespectforPutinbecause,unlikeObama,he'sseriousandaggressiveinthepursuitofhis
geopoliticalgoals-whicharealwaysintheserviceofRussia'sstrategicinterestsatleastasheseesthem.
I'velongsaidthisisamistake.It'sonethingtogivegrudgingrespecttoyouradversaryforhisobviouusskills,butit'squiteanother
tocrossthelineintoadmiringtheguyjustbecausehestandsinsuchstarkcontrasttoyourownweakanddisappointingleader.
Putinisstillaforceformalevolencearoundtheglobe,aligninghimselfwiththemadmullahsinIran,thedespotinSyriaandeventhe
monsterinNorthKorea.Ifhehadhisway,we'dsaythereconstitutionoftheSovietUnion-anddoesanyonerememberhowthat
workedoutforChristiansthefirsttimearound?
Alsokeepinmind:PutinisorderingbombingraidsinSyria,buthe'snottargetingISISoritsallies.He'stargetingtherebelswho
weretrainedbytheU.S.TellthenextChristianwho'sabouttobebeheadedbyISISthatPutinistheretoprotecthim.
Thebottomlineisthis:ThereisnosubstituteforAmericangloballeadership,andwhenit'sAWOL-asitisrightnow-weoften
makethemistakeofseekingsubsititutesthatcomeintheformofprettyunsavorycharacters.Andremember:BarackObamamay
notbewillingtostandupforChristians,butGodis.Idon'talwaysknowhowHe'sgoingtodoit,butI'lltakeHisprotectionover
thatofVladimirPutinanyday-andyoushouldtoo.
From:MartaTorielli<mapta@icloud.com>
Subject:UkraineIsBeingToldtoLiveWithPutin-BloombergView[ED:LennyBisprojectingwhatVladwouldliketo
happeninUA]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
UkraineIsBeingToldtoLiveWithPutin
ByLeonidBershidsky
http://bv.ms/1VACTGg
BloombergView
UkraineIsBeingToldtoLive
WithPutin
7 7 2 OCT5,20157:44AMEDT
ByLeonidBershidsky
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkohaslonghadtroubleunderstandingthattheWesternsupportofhis
governmentisconditional.NowtheleadersofFranceandGermanyhavetoldhimthatinnouncertainterms:The
ceasefireagreementforeasternUkrainehasjustbeenrecasttoputtheonusonPoroshenko,ratherthanonRussian
PresidentVladimirPutin.
SentfrommyiPad
Subject:41SyrianinsurgentsvowtoattackRussianforcesasMoscowhintsatgroundrole
SyrianinsurgentsvowtoattackRussianforcesas
Moscowhintsatgroundrole
The41groupsarereactingagainstMoscowsairwarbutaseniorofficialsaysRussianfightersfromUkrainecantbestopped
fromfightingforAssadregime
Morethan40SyrianinsurgentgroupshavevowedtoattackRussianforcesinretaliationforMoscowsaircampaign,inashowof
unityamongtheusuallyfragmentedrebelsagainstwhattheycalledtheoccupiersofSyria.
The41Syrianrebelgroups,whichincludedpowerfulfactionssuchasAhraral-Sham,IslamArmyandtheLevantFront,said
RussiahadjoinedthewarinSyriaafterPresidentBasharal-Assadsforceswereonthevergeofacrushingdefeat.
TheinsurgentswarningcameasthechairmanofRussiasparliamentarydefensecommitteesuggestedthatRussianvolunteer
unitscouldjoinwithforcesfightingforAssad
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/syrian-insurgent-groups-vow-to-attack-russian-forces
Subject:RUinSyriaopentoterroristsattacks
Moscowmaybeunconcernedabout[Syrian]civiliancasualties,butitispoorlypreparedtodealwiththethreatofterroristattacks
onthecrowdedbaseitnowoccupies.Hence,Russiamaynowbeonthevergeofrediscoveringthatitisfareasiertoinsertoneself
intothequagmireofacivilwarthantolaterfindawayout(Carnegie.ru,October2).ThemessySyriandisasterhasacquireda
newlevelofcomplexitywiththearrivalofRussiasexpeditionarysquadrons,butitisbynomeansclearthatBasharal-Assadhas
consequentlygainedsufficienttimeandstrengthforanewoffensive(MoscowEcho,October1).
[..]Thisdistortedworldview,inwhichgeopoliticalfantasiesareindistinguishablefrompsychologicalidiosyncrasies,propels
Putinalongthepathofcoveringonemistakewithanotherblunder.HeappearsuninformedaboutthestructuralillsofRussias
decliningeconomyandseekstoeliminatethepopulationsdeepeningdiscontentwithapatrioticmobilizationthispropaganda-
drivenpseudo-unityiscenteredondefyingUSglobaldominance,butitleavesnoclearoptionsforhowtomovefromthis
aggressive-defensivestancetoliftingthesanctions.ThediplomaticmaneuverfromUkrainetoSyriaandbackmightappearcleverly
constructed,butinfact,RussiaremainsstuckwiththeuselessoccupationofDonbasandisnowtrappedinaloomingSyrian
disaster.PutinmayimaginethatheforcedthearrogantWesttotreathimasanindispensablepartner,butObama,Merkeland
HollandehaveonlyrecognizedhisreadinesstoexposeRussiatogreatrisksforfictitiousgains.
EurasiaDailyMonitorVolume12,Issue179
Subject:RURefineries>Putin's&RU'sbigweakness/vulnerability>saysPaulaJ.DobrianskyandDavidB.Rivkin
Jr.
Russia'sgreatestvulnerabilitymaybeitsrefineries.WhileRussiaisone
oftheworld'stopenergyproducers,itsrefiningfacilitiesareantiquated,
withlowproductquality,nosparecapacity,andinfrastructureindesperate
needofsignificantinvestment.Therefininginfrastructureissoweakthat
Russiaranoutofgasolinein2011,precipitatingshortagesandsubstantial
populardiscontent.Russianmediareportedthattheheadofthe
majority-government-ownedRosneftoilcompany,IgorSechin,sentMr.Putina
letteronJuly15warningofamajorshortfallinrefinedproductsby
2016-17unlesstherefiningsectorgetsemergencyfinancialassistance.
MostofRussia'sapproximately50majorrefineriesdatetotheSoviet
period.Accordingtoa2014reportpreparedforRussia'sparliament,the
refinersalsorequireasteadysupplyofWestern,particularlyAmerican,
equipment.CurrentU.S.sanctionsapplyonlytonewRussianoilandgas
productionprojects.Butanembargo-evenifonlyaunilateralonebythe
U.S.-onexportsofrefinerypumps,compressors,controlequipmentand
catalyticagentswouldcausewidespreadshortagesofrefinedproducts,
puttingtremendouspressureonRussia'scivilianeconomyandMoscow's
abilitytocarryoutmilitaryoperations.ThePutinregimewouldsuffer
majorpoliticaldamage.
CongressCanRespondtoPutinWithMoreSanctions
ObamacomplainsaboutPutinbutdoesnothing.Here'sanotherwaytosqueeze
himbackhome.
ByPaulaJ.DobrianskyandDavidB.RivkinJr.
Oct.4,20156:11p.m.ET(October5printedition)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/congress-can-respond-to-putin-with-more-sanction
s-1443996688
Subject:PutinsinterventioninSyriamaybogdownRussiaandvindicateObama>WashingtonPost.com
PutinsinterventioninSyriamaybogdownRussiaandvindicateObama
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/putins-intervention-in-syria-may-bog-down-russia-and-vindicate-
obama/2015/10/05/e760d84a-69df-11e5-9223-70cb36460919_story.html
ByWalterPincusOctober5at8:58PM
WhatRussianPresidentVladimirPutindoesnext,aftersendingalimitednumberofhisaircraftandsomemilitaryunitsintoSyriato
shoreupsupportforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad,willshowwhathelearnedfromtheSovietUnionsowndisastrous1979
invasionofAfghanistan.
Ontheotherhand,PresidentObamasactionsinSyriademonstratethathehaslearnedfromIraqandAfghanistan,lessonsthat
Americansshouldhaveabsorbedalmost40yearsagofromVietnam.
Unlesswecangetthepartiesonthegroundtoagreetolivetogetherinsomefashion,thennoamountofU.S.militaryengagement
willsolvetheproblem,wasthewayObamaonFridaydescribedwhathehadlearned.
TothosewhocallforamoreactivemilitaryroleinSyria,Obamawarned:Wewillfindourselveseitherdoingjustalittlebitand
notmakingadifferenceandlosingcredibilitythatway,orfindingourselvesdrawnindeeperanddeeperintoasituationthat...we
cantsustain.
ThatiswhyObamapredictedthatanattemptbyRussiaandIrantopropupAssadandtrytopacifythepopulationisjustgoing
togetthemstuckinaquagmire,andthatitwontwork.Andtheywillbethereforawhileiftheydonttakeadifferentcourse.
Ofcourse,Obamascriticsdontseeitthatway.
LastWednesdayinaSenate-floorspeech,Sen.JohnMcCain(R-Ariz.)describedtheObamaadministrationsSyriapolicyas
havingmistakenanexcessofcautionforprudenceandreplacedtheriskofactionwiththeperilsofinaction.
McCainadded,IntothewreckageofthisadministrationsMiddleEastpolicyhasnowsteppedVladimirPutin.
ButitisPutinwhoseSyrianpolicyfaceswreckage.Asin2014,whenPutinbackedtheoustedthen-PresidentofUkraineViktor
Yanukovych,theRussianleaderisattemptingtokeepinpoweranotherinevitableloser,Assad.
MoscowssupportfortheAssadfamilydictatorialruleoverSyriagoesbacktotheColdWarwhenDamascusallieditselfwiththe
SovietUnion.
Whenin1971Hafezal-Assad,thecurrentpresidentsfather,ledacoupandtookcontroloftheSyriangovernment,hesigneda
securitypactwithMoscow.Inreturn,AssadgavetheSovietsanavalbaseatTartus,tothisdayMoscowsonlyportonthe
MediterraneanSeathroughwhichRussianarmshaveflowedtoSyriafordecades.TheKremlinovertheyearshasprovidedmore
than$2.5billioninmilitaryassistancetoDamascus.
SincetherevoltagainsttheAssadregimebeganinthespringof2011,AmericanshavebeenfocusedonObamasearlystatement
thatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.Lesspublicizedwaswhatwassaidimmediatelyafterwards:The
UnitedStatescannotandwillnotimposethistransitionuponSyria.ItisuptotheSyrianpeopletochoosetheirownleaders,and
wehaveheardtheirstrongdesirethattherenotbeforeigninterventionintheirmovement.
Putin,however,fromthebeginningsupportedtheAssadregime,withRussiablockingthefirsttwoUnitedNationsresolutionsin
MayandJune2011thatcondemnedtheSyriangovernmentforitsuseofbrutalforceagainstitsowncivilians.Sincethen,Russia
hascontinuedtosupplymilitaryadvisersandarmstotheSyrianregime,includingRussianMi-8andMi-17helicoptersthatcarry
outbarrel-bombattacks.
Despitethataid,theAssadregimehasbeenlosinggroundtorebelmilitaryunitsthatincludebothpro-andanti-AmericanSunni
andjihadistgroupsamongthem,theIslamicStateandpro-alQaedafighters.
ByearlySeptember,accordingtothenonpartisanInstitutefortheStudyofWar(ISW),theSyrianregimehadlostcontrolofmuch
territoryinthenorthwesternregionsofthecountry,whichisnotonlythehometerritoryoftheAssadfamily,butalsotheRussian
navybase.
OneproblemforAssadisthattheSyrianarmysuffersfrompersistentshortagesofmanpowerduetooverstretch,attritionand
endemicdraftevasionthathaveincreasinglyledtheregimetorelyuponfightersfromIranianproxygroupssuchasLebanese
Hezbollah,accordingtotheISW.
Remember,Syriais70percentSunniwhileAssadandhistopcolleaguesareAlawites,abranchofShiaIslam.
ThepotentialmilitarycollapseofMoscowsonlyAraballyhasforcedPutintostepinwithRussianairunitsandgroundforcesto
protectAssad.
Mr.PutinhadtogointoSyria,notoutofstrengthbutoutofweakness,becausehisclientMr.Assadwascrumblinganditwas
insufficientforhimsimplytosendthemarmsandmoney,Obamacorrectlysaid.
AnddespitewhatObamascriticssay,Putinishardlyactingfromstrength.WhathasalsogottenlittlepublicityintheUnitedStates
arePutinsfinancialtroublesathome.
ThedropinworldoilpricesplusUnitesStatesandEuropeanUnionsanctionsinthewakeofPutinstakeoverofCrimeaand
militarypushintoeasternUkraineareexpectedtoshrinkRussiasgrossdomesticproductthisyearby3percent.
TheRussianfinanceministryhasproposedreducingtheannualincreaseingovernmentpensionsoverthenextthreeyearsto5
percentwhilethecountrysinflationrateisabove15percent.
Amazingly,DonaldTrumpmaybetheonlyGOPpresidentialcandidatetogetitright,whenhepredictedonNBCsMeetthe
Press:ImnotjustjustifyingPutin.Butyouwatch,hellgetboggeddownthere.Hellbethere.Hellspendafortune.Hellbe
beggingtogetout.
Subject:SanctionsREPORT[ATTACHED]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wderzko@pathcom.com
|Introduction
TomanyofficialsinEuropeandintheUnitedStates,RussiasannexationofCrimeainFebruary2014andthesubsequentconflictin
easternUkrainecameasashock.RussiasblatantviolationofUkrainessovereigntyandthefoundationalprinciplesofpostCold
Warpeacewasacompleteblindside.On-the-ground,immediatemilitaryoppositiontoRussianincursions,however,wasnotarealistic
option.
UkraineisnotaNATOallyandassurancessuchasthe1994BudapestMemorandumarepoliticallymorethanlegallybinding.
AlthoughRussiasaggressionwaspoliticallyunacceptable,thetransatlanticalliancehasnolegalobligationtodefendUkraines
sovereigntymilitarily.AndWesternleadersquicklydiscardedtheoption,consideringtheunderlyingrisksofamilitaryescalation
betweentheWestandRussia.Russiaunderstoodthishesitancywellandmadesure,throughmultiplestatementsbyPresidentPutin,
toimpressuponWesterncountrieshowmuchescalationcouldcosteventheconsiderationofhavingnuclearweaponsplayinga
roleinthecrisisiftheyconsideredinterferingmilitarilyinUkraine.
Withmilitarycoerciveoptionsconstrained,andpubliccondemnationsconsideredinadequateinlightoftheseverityofthesituation,
hardpowereconomiccoercionintheformofsanctionsquicklyemergedasarealisticresponsetoholdRussiaaccountableandto
deteritfromescalatingtheconflictfurther.WhilethefirstsanctionsadoptedintheaftermathoftheannexationofCrimeainMarch
2014focusedonindividualsanctions,increasingviolenceineasternUkraineandtheattackperpetratedonthecivilianaircraftMH17
yieldedbroadersectorialsanctionsinthesummerof2014.
Sincethen,ceasefireagreementswerenegotiatedinMinsk,Belarus,inSeptember2014andinFebruary2015.WhiletheSeptember
2014MinskIceasefirequicklycollapsedduetorenewedhostilitieslastwinter,theFebruary2015MinskIIceasefire,brokeredby
FranceandGermany,managedtotemporarilyreducetheviolence.However,sincetheimplementationofMinskII,theOrganization
forSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),whichisinchargeofmonitoringtheceasefire,hasreporteddailyviolations.
Afteralmostayearofsignificanteconomicsanctions,thesituationineasternUkraineisfarfromstable,balancingprecariously
betweenthepossibilityofnewfull-scalehostilitiesandtheprospectofalong-termfrozenconflictsustainedbyRussiathroughits
supporttoseparatistsandrebelsgroups.Lately,anadditionalceasefiredeclaredonSeptember1seemstobeholdingbetterbutit
remainsfragile.
DespitethesignificantcostofthesectorialsanctionsfortheEuropeaneconomy,theEuropeanUnionagreedtorenewthemost
significantsanctionsagainstRussia,originallyduetoexpireattheendofJuly2015,forafullsemester,untilJanuary2016.The
Europeansabilitytosustain,orevenintensify,sanctionsagainstRussia,ifthe
|1
situationonthegroundwarrantsit,willbeachallenge.Manyexpertsandofficials,includingtheEUHighRepresentativeFederica
Mogherini,havepubliclychallengedthenotionthatsanctionscanrealisticallyhelpsecurealong-termdiplomaticsettlementinUkraine,
andsuggestthatlessonsdrawnfromtheuseofeconomiccoercionagainstIranareirrelevantwhendealingwithRussia.
BecauseofitsweakereconomicrelationshipwithRussia,itshouldbelesspoliticallychallengingfortheUnitedStatestomaintainits
sanctionsagainstRussiaoverthelongterm.This,however,raisesaseriouscoordinationissuewithinatransatlanticalliancethathas
managedfornowtoremainbroadlyunitedonhowtodealwiththesituationinUkraineandmorebroadlywithRussiaitself,in
particularintheNATOcontext.
Atthiscriticaljuncture,thisreportprovidesacomprehensiveassessmentoftheimpactofsanctionsagainstRussiasincetheir
adoptionandprogressivereinforcementin2014.ItalsomakespolicyrecommendationsastowhatEuropeansandAmericansshould
donext,dependingonseveralscenarios.
Thereportbeginsbyexplaininghowsanctionscontributedtostrengtheningunitywithinthetransatlanticcommunity,analyzesthe
economicimpactsanctionshavehadontheRussianandEuropeaneconomies,andexaminestheimpactsanctionshaveplayedon
Russiasbehavior.
Basedonthisassessment,thereportconcludesthatsanctionscanbeusefulinfacilitatingtheestablishmentofalong-termdiplomatic
settlementinUkraine,solongasWesterncountriesarepreparedtosustaintheminthelongrunandusethemwithflexibility,including
bycontemplatingearlybutminimalsanctionsreliefincasetheceasefireshouldholdmoredurablyineasternUkraine(withasnap-
backprovisionagainstbacksliding).
Thereportalsorecommends,ifsanctionsneededtobeincreased,thattheytargetRussiasfinancialsectorinsteadoffurthercutting
WesterntradewithRussia.ThesesanctionswouldhurtRussiamore,consideringitspotentialconstraintsinaccessingforeign
exchangereserves,whilebeingmoreappealingtoEurope,therebylimitingthepossibledissatisfactionwithsanctionsandmakingthem
moresustainable.Indoingso,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionwouldstillneedtotreadcarefullysothatrisksassociated
withRussiasfinancialdestabilizationcouldbecontained.
Finally,thereportadvocatesfornowfocusingtheuseofsanctionsagainstRussiaonRussiasdestabilizingbehaviorinUkraine,
althoughsanctionscouldprovideEuropeansandAmericansanotheroptiontodealwithhybridthreatsposedtoEuropeansecurityby
Russiasnewassertiveness.
Senttime: 10/15/201508:49:32AM
FW:"[Ash]CARTER:U.S.willtake'allnecessarysteps'toCOUNTERRussia,"http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/ash-carter-warning-russia-
Subject:
airstrikes-syria-214805
From:JohnBDunlop
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"[Ash]CARTER:U.S.willtake'allnecessarysteps'toCOUNTERRussia,"http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/ash-carter-
warning-russia-airstrikes-syria-214805
And:PutincallsU.S.WEAKonSyriaasRussianairstrikescontinue,Bloomberg.com,10/15
And:NancyA.YOUSSEF,IRANandRussiareadytopoundAleppo,thedailybeast.com,10/15
And:TopCUBANgeneral,key[Cubanspetsnaz]forcesinSyriatoaidAssad,Russia,[U.AS.official]
sourcessay,foxnews.com,10/15
GeneralLeopoldoCintraFrias,headofCubasArmedForces,recentlyvisitedSyriatoleadagroupof
CubanmilitarypersonneljoiningforceswithRussiaintheirsupportofAssadOnWednesday,aU.S.
officialconfirmedtoFoxNewsthatCubanmilitaryandspecialforcesunitsareonthegroundinSyria,
citingevidencefromintelligencereports.
And:DonaldTRUMPsaysRussiaisnttoblameforMH17,despiteevidence,
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/14/politics/donaldtrumpmh17planerussians/
And:OntheRussiancriminalcaseagainstUkrainianPMYatsenyuk:TheChechenpastofYatsenyuk,
http://www.mk.ru/pring/article/1315265/
And:Washington[StateDept.]accusesRussia,militantsofintimidationofreligiousgroupsin
CRIMEA,DONBAS,unian.info,10/15
Senttime: 10/08/201501:49:19AM
To: JohnWillams(ofc)<WilliamsJP@state.gov>EugeneFishel<FishelE@state.gov>
BCc: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
GoodStufffromKotkin:hisreviewofMeyersbook(Ultimately,Mr.Putin'stacticalcoupscannotconcealhisfailuretoreviveRussiaasagenuine
Subject:
greatpower)
#3
WallStreetJournal
October6,2015
West.
BySTEPHENKOTKIN
THENEWTSAR
ByStevenLeeMyers
Germanbackwater.
ownsordidtale.
policy.
dismembered.
Senttime: 10/06/201509:31:13AM
FW:[VLAD-O-RAMA.....THESERIES]FalseProphetsataPremium.....'TheBigScare'alaLennyB.....WDintheHuntforCzarVlad's
Subject:
'AchillesHeel'......WallyPincusinWSJSeesQuagmireScenarioPlayingOut[HopeistheLastRefugeof-------].....EUROP...
Attachments: 150929_deGalbert_SanctionsRussia_Web.pdf
Sent:Tuesday,October06,20159:13AM
Subject:Fwd:[VLAD-O-RAMA.....THESERIES]FalseProphetsataPremium.....'TheBigScare'alaLennyB.....WDintheHuntforCzar
Vlad's'AchillesHeel'......WallyPincusinWSJSeesQuagmireScenarioPlayingOut[HopeistheLastRefugeof-------].....EUROP...
Date:Tue,Oct6,2015at12:00PM
To:
Subject:Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?[OhBOY!!!Nowweareinreal
trouble!!!WD]
[ED:"TheAgeoftheFalseProphet"????]
Politics:IwilldefendChristianityaroundtheworld,says...VladimirPutin?
ImageCredit:
Publishedby:DanCalabreseonMondayOctober5th,2015
http://www.caintv.com/i-will-defend-christianity-aro

Da.
Afriendofminerespondedtotheheadlineasfollows:"Hitlersaidthesamethingin1933."
Lestyougetconceptsconfused,Idon'tthinkPutinistalkingaboutridinginshirtlessonahorsetodefendtherightsofChristian
bakeriesandflorists,nortosavethewould-bevictimsofChristian-hatinggunmen.Butthethreathereferencesisnotinsiginificant,
existingmainlyofcourseintheMiddleEastandcomingfromradicalIslamistsources.TheChristianPostreportsthatmany
ChristiansinSyriaarepleasedtoseePutininterveningonBasharAssad'sbehalfbecausetheyfiguretheirlotisbetterwithAssad
thenitwouldlikelybewithwhoevermightreplacehim.ThesubsequentpresentationofPutinasabigsupporterofChristiansin
generalisabitrichtosaytheleast:
Afterdeliveringthefacts,MetropolitanHilarionaskedPutintomakeprotectionanddefenseofChristianityaroundtheglobea
majorpartofhisforeignpolicy.
And,asreportedbyInterfax,Putinreplied,"Youneedn'thaveanydoubtthatthat'sthewayitwillbe,"assuringHilarionthat
RussianforeignpolicywoulddefendChristiansfrompersecutionabroad.
Putin'srecentactionsseemtoconfirmhispromise.Lastweek,PutinvetoedaU.N.motioncallingforSyrianleaderBasharal-
Assadtostepdown.SyrianChristiansreceivedthisasgoodnews.AssadisoftheAlawitesectofIslam.AlawitesandChristians
arebothreligiousminoritiesinSyria.SyrianChristiansfeelthatsharingthisminoritystatusmeansAssadwillprovidethemwith
protection.ASyrianChristianwomaneventoldTheGlobalPost,"ThankGodforRussia.WithoutRussiawearedoomed."
PutinhaslongbeenasupporterofChristianityandChristianvalueswithinRussia.HehascalledfortheChurchtoplayalargerrole
incitizens'sociallives,betterreligionclassesinschools,andtelevisionprogramsemphasizingreligiousvalues.
It'snewstomethatblatantlandgrabs,cronycapitalismandsuppressionofpoliticaldissentwereChristianvalues,butmaybethe
RussianBibletranslationsarealittledifferent.
Buthere'swhatyoucan'tdeny:Peoplewhofeelthreatenedwillgravitatetowardsomeonetheythinkmighthavethestrengthand
thetemerity-ifnotnecessarilythevirtue-toprotectthem.Who'sgoingtodothatinWashington?ObviouslynotBarackObama,
whocan'tevenbringhimselftomentionthattheOregonmassshootertargetedChristians,butwillbeonlytoohappytocastigate
Christiansoverstuffthathappenedmorethan1,000yearsago.
Peoplewilllooktoastrongmanwhentheyfeelthereisnovirtuous,principledleaderavailable.YouhearalotofAmerican
conservativesofferingexpressionsofrespectforPutinbecause,unlikeObama,he'sseriousandaggressiveinthepursuitofhis
geopoliticalgoals-whicharealwaysintheserviceofRussia'sstrategicinterestsatleastasheseesthem.
I'velongsaidthisisamistake.It'sonethingtogivegrudgingrespecttoyouradversaryforhisobviouusskills,butit'squiteanother
tocrossthelineintoadmiringtheguyjustbecausehestandsinsuchstarkcontrasttoyourownweakanddisappointingleader.
Putinisstillaforceformalevolencearoundtheglobe,aligninghimselfwiththemadmullahsinIran,thedespotinSyriaandeventhe
monsterinNorthKorea.Ifhehadhisway,we'dsaythereconstitutionoftheSovietUnion-anddoesanyonerememberhowthat
workedoutforChristiansthefirsttimearound?
Alsokeepinmind:PutinisorderingbombingraidsinSyria,buthe'snottargetingISISoritsallies.He'stargetingtherebelswho
weretrainedbytheU.S.TellthenextChristianwho'sabouttobebeheadedbyISISthatPutinistheretoprotecthim.
Thebottomlineisthis:ThereisnosubstituteforAmericangloballeadership,andwhenit'sAWOL-asitisrightnow-weoften
makethemistakeofseekingsubsititutesthatcomeintheformofprettyunsavorycharacters.Andremember:BarackObamamay
notbewillingtostandupforChristians,butGodis.Idon'talwaysknowhowHe'sgoingtodoit,butI'lltakeHisprotectionover
thatofVladimirPutinanyday-andyoushouldtoo.
From:MartaTorielli<mapta@icloud.com>
Subject:UkraineIsBeingToldtoLiveWithPutin-BloombergView[ED:LennyBisprojectingwhatVladwouldliketo
happeninUA]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
UkraineIsBeingToldtoLiveWithPutin
ByLeonidBershidsky
http://bv.ms/1VACTGg
BloombergView
UkraineIsBeingToldtoLive
WithPutin
7 7 2 OCT5,20157:44AMEDT
ByLeonidBershidsky
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkohaslonghadtroubleunderstandingthattheWesternsupportofhis
governmentisconditional.NowtheleadersofFranceandGermanyhavetoldhimthatinnouncertainterms:The
ceasefireagreementforeasternUkrainehasjustbeenrecasttoputtheonusonPoroshenko,ratherthanonRussian
PresidentVladimirPutin.
SentfrommyiPad
Subject:41SyrianinsurgentsvowtoattackRussianforcesasMoscowhintsatgroundrole
SyrianinsurgentsvowtoattackRussianforcesas
Moscowhintsatgroundrole
The41groupsarereactingagainstMoscowsairwarbutaseniorofficialsaysRussianfightersfromUkrainecantbestopped
fromfightingforAssadregime
Morethan40SyrianinsurgentgroupshavevowedtoattackRussianforcesinretaliationforMoscowsaircampaign,inashowof
unityamongtheusuallyfragmentedrebelsagainstwhattheycalledtheoccupiersofSyria.
The41Syrianrebelgroups,whichincludedpowerfulfactionssuchasAhraral-Sham,IslamArmyandtheLevantFront,said
RussiahadjoinedthewarinSyriaafterPresidentBasharal-Assadsforceswereonthevergeofacrushingdefeat.
TheinsurgentswarningcameasthechairmanofRussiasparliamentarydefensecommitteesuggestedthatRussianvolunteer
unitscouldjoinwithforcesfightingforAssad
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/05/syrian-insurgent-groups-vow-to-attack-russian-forces
Subject:RUinSyriaopentoterroristsattacks
Moscowmaybeunconcernedabout[Syrian]civiliancasualties,butitispoorlypreparedtodealwiththethreatofterroristattacks
onthecrowdedbaseitnowoccupies.Hence,Russiamaynowbeonthevergeofrediscoveringthatitisfareasiertoinsertoneself
intothequagmireofacivilwarthantolaterfindawayout(Carnegie.ru,October2).ThemessySyriandisasterhasacquireda
newlevelofcomplexitywiththearrivalofRussiasexpeditionarysquadrons,butitisbynomeansclearthatBasharal-Assadhas
consequentlygainedsufficienttimeandstrengthforanewoffensive(MoscowEcho,October1).
[..]Thisdistortedworldview,inwhichgeopoliticalfantasiesareindistinguishablefrompsychologicalidiosyncrasies,propels
Putinalongthepathofcoveringonemistakewithanotherblunder.HeappearsuninformedaboutthestructuralillsofRussias
decliningeconomyandseekstoeliminatethepopulationsdeepeningdiscontentwithapatrioticmobilizationthispropaganda-
drivenpseudo-unityiscenteredondefyingUSglobaldominance,butitleavesnoclearoptionsforhowtomovefromthis
aggressive-defensivestancetoliftingthesanctions.ThediplomaticmaneuverfromUkrainetoSyriaandbackmightappearcleverly
constructed,butinfact,RussiaremainsstuckwiththeuselessoccupationofDonbasandisnowtrappedinaloomingSyrian
disaster.PutinmayimaginethatheforcedthearrogantWesttotreathimasanindispensablepartner,butObama,Merkeland
HollandehaveonlyrecognizedhisreadinesstoexposeRussiatogreatrisksforfictitiousgains.
EurasiaDailyMonitorVolume12,Issue179
Subject:RURefineries>Putin's&RU'sbigweakness/vulnerability>saysPaulaJ.DobrianskyandDavidB.Rivkin
Jr.
Russia'sgreatestvulnerabilitymaybeitsrefineries.WhileRussiaisone
oftheworld'stopenergyproducers,itsrefiningfacilitiesareantiquated,
withlowproductquality,nosparecapacity,andinfrastructureindesperate
needofsignificantinvestment.Therefininginfrastructureissoweakthat
Russiaranoutofgasolinein2011,precipitatingshortagesandsubstantial
populardiscontent.Russianmediareportedthattheheadofthe
majority-government-ownedRosneftoilcompany,IgorSechin,sentMr.Putina
letteronJuly15warningofamajorshortfallinrefinedproductsby
2016-17unlesstherefiningsectorgetsemergencyfinancialassistance.
MostofRussia'sapproximately50majorrefineriesdatetotheSoviet
period.Accordingtoa2014reportpreparedforRussia'sparliament,the
refinersalsorequireasteadysupplyofWestern,particularlyAmerican,
equipment.CurrentU.S.sanctionsapplyonlytonewRussianoilandgas
productionprojects.Butanembargo-evenifonlyaunilateralonebythe
U.S.-onexportsofrefinerypumps,compressors,controlequipmentand
catalyticagentswouldcausewidespreadshortagesofrefinedproducts,
puttingtremendouspressureonRussia'scivilianeconomyandMoscow's
abilitytocarryoutmilitaryoperations.ThePutinregimewouldsuffer
majorpoliticaldamage.
CongressCanRespondtoPutinWithMoreSanctions
ObamacomplainsaboutPutinbutdoesnothing.Here'sanotherwaytosqueeze
himbackhome.
ByPaulaJ.DobrianskyandDavidB.RivkinJr.
Oct.4,20156:11p.m.ET(October5printedition)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/congress-can-respond-to-putin-with-more-sanction
s-1443996688
Subject:PutinsinterventioninSyriamaybogdownRussiaandvindicateObama>WashingtonPost.com
PutinsinterventioninSyriamaybogdownRussiaandvindicateObama
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/putins-intervention-in-syria-may-bog-down-russia-and-vindicate-
obama/2015/10/05/e760d84a-69df-11e5-9223-70cb36460919_story.html
ByWalterPincusOctober5at8:58PM
WhatRussianPresidentVladimirPutindoesnext,aftersendingalimitednumberofhisaircraftandsomemilitaryunitsintoSyriato
shoreupsupportforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad,willshowwhathelearnedfromtheSovietUnionsowndisastrous1979
invasionofAfghanistan.
Ontheotherhand,PresidentObamasactionsinSyriademonstratethathehaslearnedfromIraqandAfghanistan,lessonsthat
Americansshouldhaveabsorbedalmost40yearsagofromVietnam.
Unlesswecangetthepartiesonthegroundtoagreetolivetogetherinsomefashion,thennoamountofU.S.militaryengagement
willsolvetheproblem,wasthewayObamaonFridaydescribedwhathehadlearned.
TothosewhocallforamoreactivemilitaryroleinSyria,Obamawarned:Wewillfindourselveseitherdoingjustalittlebitand
notmakingadifferenceandlosingcredibilitythatway,orfindingourselvesdrawnindeeperanddeeperintoasituationthat...we
cantsustain.
ThatiswhyObamapredictedthatanattemptbyRussiaandIrantopropupAssadandtrytopacifythepopulationisjustgoing
togetthemstuckinaquagmire,andthatitwontwork.Andtheywillbethereforawhileiftheydonttakeadifferentcourse.
Ofcourse,Obamascriticsdontseeitthatway.
LastWednesdayinaSenate-floorspeech,Sen.JohnMcCain(R-Ariz.)describedtheObamaadministrationsSyriapolicyas
havingmistakenanexcessofcautionforprudenceandreplacedtheriskofactionwiththeperilsofinaction.
McCainadded,IntothewreckageofthisadministrationsMiddleEastpolicyhasnowsteppedVladimirPutin.
ButitisPutinwhoseSyrianpolicyfaceswreckage.Asin2014,whenPutinbackedtheoustedthen-PresidentofUkraineViktor
Yanukovych,theRussianleaderisattemptingtokeepinpoweranotherinevitableloser,Assad.
MoscowssupportfortheAssadfamilydictatorialruleoverSyriagoesbacktotheColdWarwhenDamascusallieditselfwiththe
SovietUnion.
Whenin1971Hafezal-Assad,thecurrentpresidentsfather,ledacoupandtookcontroloftheSyriangovernment,hesigneda
securitypactwithMoscow.Inreturn,AssadgavetheSovietsanavalbaseatTartus,tothisdayMoscowsonlyportonthe
MediterraneanSeathroughwhichRussianarmshaveflowedtoSyriafordecades.TheKremlinovertheyearshasprovidedmore
than$2.5billioninmilitaryassistancetoDamascus.
SincetherevoltagainsttheAssadregimebeganinthespringof2011,AmericanshavebeenfocusedonObamasearlystatement
thatthetimehascomeforPresidentAssadtostepaside.Lesspublicizedwaswhatwassaidimmediatelyafterwards:The
UnitedStatescannotandwillnotimposethistransitionuponSyria.ItisuptotheSyrianpeopletochoosetheirownleaders,and
wehaveheardtheirstrongdesirethattherenotbeforeigninterventionintheirmovement.
Putin,however,fromthebeginningsupportedtheAssadregime,withRussiablockingthefirsttwoUnitedNationsresolutionsin
MayandJune2011thatcondemnedtheSyriangovernmentforitsuseofbrutalforceagainstitsowncivilians.Sincethen,Russia
hascontinuedtosupplymilitaryadvisersandarmstotheSyrianregime,includingRussianMi-8andMi-17helicoptersthatcarry
outbarrel-bombattacks.
Despitethataid,theAssadregimehasbeenlosinggroundtorebelmilitaryunitsthatincludebothpro-andanti-AmericanSunni
andjihadistgroupsamongthem,theIslamicStateandpro-alQaedafighters.
ByearlySeptember,accordingtothenonpartisanInstitutefortheStudyofWar(ISW),theSyrianregimehadlostcontrolofmuch
territoryinthenorthwesternregionsofthecountry,whichisnotonlythehometerritoryoftheAssadfamily,butalsotheRussian
navybase.
OneproblemforAssadisthattheSyrianarmysuffersfrompersistentshortagesofmanpowerduetooverstretch,attritionand
endemicdraftevasionthathaveincreasinglyledtheregimetorelyuponfightersfromIranianproxygroupssuchasLebanese
Hezbollah,accordingtotheISW.
Remember,Syriais70percentSunniwhileAssadandhistopcolleaguesareAlawites,abranchofShiaIslam.
ThepotentialmilitarycollapseofMoscowsonlyAraballyhasforcedPutintostepinwithRussianairunitsandgroundforcesto
protectAssad.
Mr.PutinhadtogointoSyria,notoutofstrengthbutoutofweakness,becausehisclientMr.Assadwascrumblinganditwas
insufficientforhimsimplytosendthemarmsandmoney,Obamacorrectlysaid.
AnddespitewhatObamascriticssay,Putinishardlyactingfromstrength.WhathasalsogottenlittlepublicityintheUnitedStates
arePutinsfinancialtroublesathome.
ThedropinworldoilpricesplusUnitesStatesandEuropeanUnionsanctionsinthewakeofPutinstakeoverofCrimeaand
militarypushintoeasternUkraineareexpectedtoshrinkRussiasgrossdomesticproductthisyearby3percent.
TheRussianfinanceministryhasproposedreducingtheannualincreaseingovernmentpensionsoverthenextthreeyearsto5
percentwhilethecountrysinflationrateisabove15percent.
Amazingly,DonaldTrumpmaybetheonlyGOPpresidentialcandidatetogetitright,whenhepredictedonNBCsMeetthe
Press:ImnotjustjustifyingPutin.Butyouwatch,hellgetboggeddownthere.Hellbethere.Hellspendafortune.Hellbe
beggingtogetout.
Subject:SanctionsREPORT[ATTACHED]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wderzko@pathcom.com
|Introduction
TomanyofficialsinEuropeandintheUnitedStates,RussiasannexationofCrimeainFebruary2014andthesubsequentconflictin
easternUkrainecameasashock.RussiasblatantviolationofUkrainessovereigntyandthefoundationalprinciplesofpostCold
Warpeacewasacompleteblindside.On-the-ground,immediatemilitaryoppositiontoRussianincursions,however,wasnotarealistic
option.
UkraineisnotaNATOallyandassurancessuchasthe1994BudapestMemorandumarepoliticallymorethanlegallybinding.
AlthoughRussiasaggressionwaspoliticallyunacceptable,thetransatlanticalliancehasnolegalobligationtodefendUkraines
sovereigntymilitarily.AndWesternleadersquicklydiscardedtheoption,consideringtheunderlyingrisksofamilitaryescalation
betweentheWestandRussia.Russiaunderstoodthishesitancywellandmadesure,throughmultiplestatementsbyPresidentPutin,
toimpressuponWesterncountrieshowmuchescalationcouldcosteventheconsiderationofhavingnuclearweaponsplayinga
roleinthecrisisiftheyconsideredinterferingmilitarilyinUkraine.
Withmilitarycoerciveoptionsconstrained,andpubliccondemnationsconsideredinadequateinlightoftheseverityofthesituation,
hardpowereconomiccoercionintheformofsanctionsquicklyemergedasarealisticresponsetoholdRussiaaccountableandto
deteritfromescalatingtheconflictfurther.WhilethefirstsanctionsadoptedintheaftermathoftheannexationofCrimeainMarch
2014focusedonindividualsanctions,increasingviolenceineasternUkraineandtheattackperpetratedonthecivilianaircraftMH17
yieldedbroadersectorialsanctionsinthesummerof2014.
Sincethen,ceasefireagreementswerenegotiatedinMinsk,Belarus,inSeptember2014andinFebruary2015.WhiletheSeptember
2014MinskIceasefirequicklycollapsedduetorenewedhostilitieslastwinter,theFebruary2015MinskIIceasefire,brokeredby
FranceandGermany,managedtotemporarilyreducetheviolence.However,sincetheimplementationofMinskII,theOrganization
forSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),whichisinchargeofmonitoringtheceasefire,hasreporteddailyviolations.
Afteralmostayearofsignificanteconomicsanctions,thesituationineasternUkraineisfarfromstable,balancingprecariously
betweenthepossibilityofnewfull-scalehostilitiesandtheprospectofalong-termfrozenconflictsustainedbyRussiathroughits
supporttoseparatistsandrebelsgroups.Lately,anadditionalceasefiredeclaredonSeptember1seemstobeholdingbetterbutit
remainsfragile.
DespitethesignificantcostofthesectorialsanctionsfortheEuropeaneconomy,theEuropeanUnionagreedtorenewthemost
significantsanctionsagainstRussia,originallyduetoexpireattheendofJuly2015,forafullsemester,untilJanuary2016.The
Europeansabilitytosustain,orevenintensify,sanctionsagainstRussia,ifthe
|1
situationonthegroundwarrantsit,willbeachallenge.Manyexpertsandofficials,includingtheEUHighRepresentativeFederica
Mogherini,havepubliclychallengedthenotionthatsanctionscanrealisticallyhelpsecurealong-termdiplomaticsettlementinUkraine,
andsuggestthatlessonsdrawnfromtheuseofeconomiccoercionagainstIranareirrelevantwhendealingwithRussia.
BecauseofitsweakereconomicrelationshipwithRussia,itshouldbelesspoliticallychallengingfortheUnitedStatestomaintainits
sanctionsagainstRussiaoverthelongterm.This,however,raisesaseriouscoordinationissuewithinatransatlanticalliancethathas
managedfornowtoremainbroadlyunitedonhowtodealwiththesituationinUkraineandmorebroadlywithRussiaitself,in
particularintheNATOcontext.
Atthiscriticaljuncture,thisreportprovidesacomprehensiveassessmentoftheimpactofsanctionsagainstRussiasincetheir
adoptionandprogressivereinforcementin2014.ItalsomakespolicyrecommendationsastowhatEuropeansandAmericansshould
donext,dependingonseveralscenarios.
Thereportbeginsbyexplaininghowsanctionscontributedtostrengtheningunitywithinthetransatlanticcommunity,analyzesthe
economicimpactsanctionshavehadontheRussianandEuropeaneconomies,andexaminestheimpactsanctionshaveplayedon
Russiasbehavior.
Basedonthisassessment,thereportconcludesthatsanctionscanbeusefulinfacilitatingtheestablishmentofalong-termdiplomatic
settlementinUkraine,solongasWesterncountriesarepreparedtosustaintheminthelongrunandusethemwithflexibility,including
bycontemplatingearlybutminimalsanctionsreliefincasetheceasefireshouldholdmoredurablyineasternUkraine(withasnap-
backprovisionagainstbacksliding).
Thereportalsorecommends,ifsanctionsneededtobeincreased,thattheytargetRussiasfinancialsectorinsteadoffurthercutting
WesterntradewithRussia.ThesesanctionswouldhurtRussiamore,consideringitspotentialconstraintsinaccessingforeign
exchangereserves,whilebeingmoreappealingtoEurope,therebylimitingthepossibledissatisfactionwithsanctionsandmakingthem
moresustainable.Indoingso,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionwouldstillneedtotreadcarefullysothatrisksassociated
withRussiasfinancialdestabilizationcouldbecontained.
Finally,thereportadvocatesfornowfocusingtheuseofsanctionsagainstRussiaonRussiasdestabilizingbehaviorinUkraine,
althoughsanctionscouldprovideEuropeansandAmericansanotheroptiontodealwithhybridthreatsposedtoEuropeansecurityby
Russiasnewassertiveness.
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 09/30/201502:43:32PM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes30September2015
Attachments: IN30Sept15.doc
InternetNotes30September2015
ItslikelythatIwontgetanynotesouttomorrow.NextnoteswillprobablybeonFriday.
VladimirPastukhovonNeo-totalitarianismandPutin-Medvedev
Patrioticmobilization:IsthatwhattheKremlinreallywants?
EternalRussia(SacredvlastPatrimonialandclanRussia)
RussianairstrikesinSyria(TargetingpipelinesKadyrovdisappointedtherearenogroundoperations)
Channel1onPutinattheUN
SoloveyonPutinsUNspeech(Nothingnewthere)
MotorolareportedlyinSyria
Savchenkoclaimsshewaskidnapped
http://www.polit.ru/article/2015/09/28/neototalitarianism/
Comment:Pastukhovusuallyhassomeinterestingthingstosay.Inthisbit,Ithinkheisoffthemarkincallingthe
PutinregimeNeo-totalitarian.
Pastukhovclaimsthattheregimeisreviving(itsanunfinishedprocess)totalitarianmethodsofthepast,movingbeyond
authoritarianrule(whichhesaysismarkedbysocietyspassivityandsilentgo-along-to-get-alongmood)toaneo-totalitarian
system.True,theneosystemisweakatthispointcomparedtotheoldSovietsystem,butitdoesinvolveideology(Krym
nash!)andtheactiveparticipationofthepeople.PastukhovthinksthateventuallytheKremlinwillfollowthatpathtoitslogical
end,thatis,toneo-terrorandGulags.Hedoesntthinkthateconomichardshipwillspurpopularunrest.
Comment:IthinkPastukhovismistakingwhatIvecalledthepatrioticwaveforpatrioticmobilization,whichIdo
notthinkhastakenplace(Seethenotesfrom3and13July,and13August).*Theideologyhespeaksofishalf
formednationalpride,greatpowernessandisnotthekindofhardideologyfoundintotalitarianregimesofthe
past,ideologiesaimedattransformingsocietyandhumanityitself.AsIvenotedbefore,withoutthekindof
mobilizationPastukhovspeaksof,absentanall-encompassingideologicaldrive,andconsideringthecountrys
demographicsaswell,Idontthinkamassmovementregimeormassterrorarepossible.Whatsmore,thelastthing
theregimewantsisamobilizedpopulation,whichtheKremlinviewsasdangerous.Russiatodayisanauthoritarian
statewithquasi-democraticinstitutions.Itisalowtrust,clantypesystem,somethingprettycommonintheworld.
PastukhovthentakesupthePutin-MedvedevrelationshipYes,PutinspoliciestoughenedupafterhisreturntotheKremlinin
2012butPastukhovthinksitactuallywentlikethis:Putinandhiscircledecidedthatpoliciesneededtobetougher,thendecided
thatVVPshouldreturntotheKremlin.TheplanhadoriginallybeenforMedvedevtoservetwoterms,butitbecamenecessaryto
curtailMedvedevsunsuccessfuldemocraticproject.Medvedevsliberalismwasincompatiblewithmaintainingtheeconomic
commandingheightsinthehandsofthepeoplewhostrengthentheirpositionsintheKremlinin2007-2008.So,nosecondterm
forMedvedev.
AdemocraticRussiaistheoreticallypossible,saysPastukhov,butthatsalongterm,gradualprocesswithmanytransitional
periods.Amovetopreventanotherrokirovkaorapresident-for-lifewouldlikelycomesoonerthanjudicialreformandreal
federalism.Russiansocietyisverysickanditwouldtakealongtimetoriditselfoftotalitarianinfluences.Pastukhovthinksthat
theendofthePutinerawillcomeintwostages,firstthroughPutinsreplacementbysomeonewhorepudiatesVVPandhis
understandings,thoughonlybyobservingadifferentsetofunderstandings.Thesecondstagewillcomewhenthatsuccessoris
replacedbysomeonewhodoesnotlivebyunderstandings.
Comment:Goodluck.AsPastukhovsays,Russiansocietyissick.Itsthatsocietythatwillhavetobehealedand
thatsnotsomethingthatachangeofpoliticalleadershipalonecantakecareof,inmyview.
*MybitonPatrioticmobilizationandrelatedmattersfromthe3Julynotes:
[Patrioticmobilization:IsthatwhattheKremlinreallywants?
Comment:TherehasbeenmuchtalkofpatrioticmobilizationinRussia.Aftersomediscussionwithanattentivereader,andreadingback
oversomematerialfromrecentnotes,Ithinkthata)ageneralmobilizationhasnot,infact,takenplaceb)thattheKremlindoesnotwant
genuinemobilization,butsomethingelseandc)thatamobilizedpopulationwouldbepotentiallydangerousandtheKremlinknowsthis.
First,whatdowemeanbymobilization?Tomymind,amobilizedpopulationisonethatisreadytotakeaction,participateinralliesor
volunteers,selforganizes,oriscapableofselforganizing,anddoesmorethanshowingupbythebusloadtovoteinanorganizedfashionsetin
motionbysuperiors.Thesegmentofthepopulationthathasstoodoutinshowingthatitcanbemobilizedinthatsenseisthenon-systemic
opposition,whichtheKremlinseesasathreat.Anykindofspontaneousoruncontrolled(byvlast)massactionisviewedasathreatbythe
KremlinandhastraditionallybeenseenassuchinRussia.Whatsomemayviewasorganizedactionbycitizens,theKremlinsees,atleast
potentially,asabuntandIthinktheRussianelitehaveadeepseatedfearofthenarod,whichtheythinkofaslargelyamob.Ithinkthe
Kremlin(inthebroadsenseoftherulingclansrepresentedinvlast)isinstinctivelywaryofanactivepopulation,evenifthePresidential
Administrationisorganizingaparticularactionitcouldgetoutofhand,afterall,orthemobcouldgetideas.

IthinktheKremlinseesmobilizationasameansofchannelingemotionsandfeelings,aswiththeimmortalregiment(seethe11May
notes),inawaythatissafefortheregimeandtendstoplaydowncontradictionsinthepopulationandbetweenthepopulationandvlast(the
immortalregimentrallieswereadisplayofunitythatcutacrossclassandideologicallines,inthatwayexpressingtheRussianidealsofunity
andsobornost).Myreadernoted,forinstance,thattheKremlinhasnotevendonemuchinthewayoforganizingmassdemonstrationsin
favoroftheseparatists.Weoccasionallyseemass,controlled,orchestrateddemonstrationsbackedbytheKremlinadministration(likethe
counterdemonstrationsduringtheprotestwave),butthosearenotfrequenteventsandwhentheydotakeplace,ofteninvolvepayingorgiving
someotherincentivetoparticipants.ApointworthrememberingisthatoursourceshavemaintainedthatonereasontheKremlinwantstoshift
thedateoftheDumaelectionsistolowerturnout(See,forinstance,the21Maynotes).Asmyreaderputit,whenStrelkovcomplainedaboutnot
enoughpeopleshowinguptofightinEasternUkraine,hesaidalotofthepeoplewereathome,sittingonthecouchanddrinkingbeerthisis
theidealvoterintheKremlinsview,onewhodoesnotshowupunlessthebuscomesaroundtomobilizethem.Inshort,themassoftheRussian
populationisgenerallyapatheticandpassiveandvlastlikesitthatway(Therehave,however,beenclaimsthatsocialbondsareincreasingin
RussiaIexpressedseriousdoubtsaboutthatinthe18Junenotes).
WehaveseenplentyofpollssuggestingthatthepopulationsupportstheannexationofCrimea,viewstheWestwithsuspicion(seethe29June
notes,forexample),andthelike.AnemotionorsenseofpassivesupportisdifferentfrommobilizationinthesenseImean.Itwouldbebetterto
refertosuchpollingsupportasapatrioticwave,notmobilization.ThereisastrangedualityaboutvlaststhinkingtakeEasternUkraine:
Ithinkalotofthepatrioticbackersofsupportingthemini-civilwartherehopedforandexpectedmorevolunteersthanactuallyshowed.We
knowthatthecenterhasbeenusingoftenreluctantactivedutyservicepersonnelonleavetobolstertheseparatistforces,making
promisestothemthatithasapparentlynotkeptandtryingtohidewhatisgoingonfromthepopulation.Thisindicatesthatnomassmobilization
isactuallytakingplacetheKremliniswellawarethatthemassesmaysupportitspoliciespassively(inpolls,forinstance),butisnotreadyto
fightforthosepolicies.Indeed,thepassivemasseshaveasortofwearinessaboutthemandacharacteristicinward,practicalbentinrecent
pollsonwhattherespondentsaremostconcernedabout,theybringupmaterialwellbeing,education,healthcare,pensions,andthelike,even
whiletellingthepollsterstheysupportPutinspolicies.AndIvenotedwhatIllarionovdescribedasadeclineinimperialthinking,whilea
recentLevadapollhas59%ofrespondentsindicatingthattheythinkdomesticproblemsaremoreimportantthanexternalthreats(Seethe29
Junenotes).
WhattheKremlinhasbeendoinginEasternUkraineisinstructive:Wehavereadthatfieldcommandersandleaderstherewhocantbe
managedhavebeenforcedtoleave(likeStrelkov)orevenassassinated(likeMozgovoySeethe2Junenotes,forexample).Andtimeand
again,wehaveseenindicationsthattheKremlinviewsthenationalistsandfightersinUkraine(who,readerswillrecall,areonbothsidesofthe
conflict)whocouldreturnandmaketroubleasaseriousthreat.Therehavebeencrackdownsonnationalistgroups(seethe30Marchnotes,for
example)andthereportsweseeofdisturbancesandcrimesrelatedtoreturningfighters(readmobilizedRussians)areobviouslyalarmingto
vlast(Seethe17and26Junenotes).
Butthatsnotallthepro-regime,mobilizednationalist/imperialistfactionisalsoapotentialthreat,highlightingthedangersofhowpatriotic
mobilizationcouldgetoutofhand.IhaveinmindtheNemtsovmurder,carriedoutbyasegmentofPastukhovsKremlinperiphery(Kadyrov
andtheSeverbattalionSeethe3Marchnotes)with,Ithink,somehelpfromotherhardlineelementsinthespecialservices.TheNemtsov
killingwasanexampleoftheperipheryslippingtheleash,puttingPutininadifficultposition,betweenKadyrovandthefederalsilovikywho
wantedtousethekillingasapretexttogoaftertheChechenwarlord.Thepotentialforrealtroublewasevident.
Onarelatednote,IvealreadydealtwithPutinsapprovalrating(89%inthelatestLevadapolls)andwhatpopularitymeansinRussia.Ithink
thatmostRussiansdonotconsiderpoliticstobeanyoftheirbusinessandanapprovalratingdoesnotnecessarilyreflectawillingnesstogoto
thewallforthenoalternativesleader.Again,IthinktheArutunyanbookandmycommentsonitfromlastfallarehelpful.
Fromthe5November2015notes:
[EternalRussia(SacredvlastPatrimonialandclanRussia)
AnarticlebyMariaSnegovayafromlastJune
http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/news/27725001/rossiya-kotoruyu-myne-teryali#ixzz34mD7Ituk
SnegovayapointsoutthecontinuitybetweentheoldregimeandtheSovietUnion,withelementsoffeudalism(withthestatesteppinginasthe
Lordoveravastfiefdomandcontrollingpropertyandlabor),theCzarorpersonalizedpowertransformedintothecultofpersonalitymost
prominentlydevelopedunderStalin,andaparallelbetweenthereligiousiconsadoringthetraditionalRussiankrasniyugolreplacedbyaLenin
iconicdisplay.Sheallowsthatadistortedversionofthelessattractiveaspectsoftheoldregimewasrampedupseveralordersofmagnitude,while
thebetteraspectsofRussiancultureweredegraded,underSovietrule.
Forbes(again)namesPutinthemostpowerfulpersonintheworld:http://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinehoward/2014/11/05/putin-vs-obama-the-
worlds-most-powerful-people-2014/
Comment:Ivebeenthinkingovertheissueofcontinuitylately.InmybookTheRussianQuestionImoreorlessagreedwithSnegovayathat,
forexample,RussiancommunalismwhenpressedintotheCommunistmachinecameoutasSovietcollectivism(theanthill,notthevillage
commune).Different,yetthesame.AutocracyasStalinismfosteredunlimited,centralizedpowertoahigherdegreethanundertheoldregime,
andtogetherwithCommunistmaterialismandmodernweaponsandtechnologies,madetheRedCzaramoreterrible,farreachingautocrat
(GenghisKhanwithatelegraph)thancouldhaveexistedbeforethe20t hcentury.YetwhatwehadwasSovietRussia,notsomethingaltogether
different,butRussiasqueezedthroughthemoldofSovietmodernization.Idontthinkthecountryhaseverrecoveredfromthat.Thefatalismof
Russiawasmagnified,familystructureunderminedseverely,intermediateinstitutions,howeverfrail,destroyed.Societywasfragmentedor
atomizedandsocialtrustwasabsent.Thedemographicdeclineis,inmyview,oneproductoftheSovietmodernizationexperiment.
Revolution,massterror,catastrophicwar,atheism

ButsomethingsthathavemadeRussiaRussiawereandareverypersistent.TheRussianfabrichassomepowerfulconnectivethreadsthat
arestrongerthanreformerswanttoimagine,thoughtheymaybehardtoexplain.Theyhavetobeperceivedorexperienced.Ivebeenbringing
someofthemupinthenotesrecentlybecauseIthinkwealltendtoforgetthis,lookingatRussiaasanotherproblemthatcanberationalizedand
subjectedtotransformativepositivelaw,withlittleattentiontocontextorthefabricofRussianlife.
OneofthosethreadsIveteasedoutandcommentedonrecentlyisBelkovskiystakeonthesacrednatureofRussianvlast(Seethe28
Octobernotes,forexample).BelkovskiyhasevenproposedanelectedmonarchyvlastinRussiahastobemonarchalandpersonified,says
Belkovskiy.
Withthatinmind,IpickedupanexcellentbookthispastweekendthatIthinkisworthalook,notbecauseitsaysanythingnew,butbecauseof
howtheauthor,AnnaArutunyan,weavesherobservationstogether,applyingthemtoconcreteeventsandepisodes.ThebookisThePutin
Mystique,whichisaquitemisleadingtitlesincethebookisnotreallyaboutPutin,but,asthesubtitleputsitRussiaspowercult.
ArutunyanfocusesfirstonthesacrednatureofvlastandtheleaderinparticularintheRussianmind.Sherecountsthestoryofthejournalist
whointerviewedPutinand,whenaskingabouttheanticsofPussyRiot,couldnotbringhimselftosaythegroupsnameespeciallytheRussian
equivalent,whichismorevulgarandoutrightobscenethantheEnglishnameinPutinspresence.PutinbeingPutinheproddedthe(English)
journalist:Canyousayit?AndthereplywasIcantsayitfrontofyou.AsimilarepisodetookplacewithaRussianjournalist.Arutunyan
makesherpointbytellingthestoryofCzarNicholasIsencounterwiththepoetAleksandrPolezhayevin1836theCzarwasintentonforcing
Polezhayevtoreciteavulgarpoemhehadwritten:Icant,saidPolezhayev.ButtheCzarforcedhimtoread.NicholasthenkissedPolezhayev,
whospenttherestofhislifeinthearmy.
BelkovskiyhasitthatfortheRussianpeople,alegitimaterulermusthavethemystiqueofsacrednessamandatetorulethatprecedeslaw
andArutunyan,ofcourse,tracesthisbacktoBzyantiumssymphonybetweenchurchandstate.Powerliterallywasfromonhighand
followingthefallofConstantinople,RussiatookuponitselfthemantleoftheThirdRome,therulersthepersonificationofthemeldingof
temporalandsacredpower.(IwonderhowshewouldweaveintheresidueoftheTatar/Mongolyoke?)
Afewpointssheemphasizes:
First,thatthepeopleseetheCzarasfaraway,distant,ahopefullybenevolentbeingwhoisabovethelaw,notwithinitorofit,andtheydonot
seethemselvesasnecessarilyresponsibleorinanywayconcernedwithhowtheCzarrulesatleastinthingsthatdonotdirectlyhavean
impactonthemselves.MostpeopledisapprovedofPussyRiot,thoughthesentencesmetedoutmayhavebeentooharshbutthat,theytell
Arutunyan,isnoneoftheirbusiness(Thepassivityandapathywesooftennote).
Second,thatasinancientmyths,thecountryisblessed(orpunished)accordingtothecharacterandactionsoftherulertherulermaintainsa
sacredaurasolongasthepeopleperceiveofthatrulerasactinginwaythatdoesnotbringondisaster(evennaturaldisasterArutunyan
notesthatsuppressingstoriesofnaturaldisastersdidnotoriginateintheSovietperiod).Thatdoesnotmeanthatallmustalwaysberightwith
theworldevenwhentherulerisperceivedasatleasttrying(to,say,overcomethewickedboyarsonbehalfofthenarod),thenthatruleris
legitimate.Putinpassesthattestformost.
Third,thepeoplethemselveshaveasenseofhelplessnessinanunpredictableworldtheyhavenocontrolover,aworldwhereeachlocalbossisa
rulerastheCzarisovertherealm,butwhopresidesoveradysfunctionalsystemthus,theappealstoahigherpowerwhenallelsefailsand
theCzarsuseofextra-legalpowertomakethingsright(Thatis,manualcontroltheantidoteforalackofpersonalresponsibilityor
accountabilityandweakinstitutionsArutunyanusesthestoryofthemono-cityPikalevoandPutinsinterventiontoillustratethishishigh
pointwashumiliatingDeripaska,forcinghim[atleastitappearedthatway,thetruthbeingmorecomplicatedPutinwasquiteawareofwhatpart
hewasplaying]tosignacontractandthentellinghimgivememypenback:thatdemonstrationofpowerandwoebetotheCzarwho
cannotshowsuchpowerwasatleastasimportantasgettingtheplantsatPikalevorunningagain).Thus,Putinsuccessfullyplaystheroleof
thebenevolentCzarandthesupremearbiter.Justice,notstrictadherencetothelaw,istheCzarspurview.
Andfinally,thepeoplethemselvesarepartnersintheirownexploitation:leaderswhoarepopular,whetheraplantmanagerorapresident,have
beenthoseseenasstrictbutfair,possessingacertainothernessforintheunwrittensystemofrulesandrightsthatgovernworking
relationships,thebosscouldenjoytheprivilegesofhiscasteaslongasheneverneglectedtocarefortheworkers(Somethinglikemy
commentsonLuzhkovon3November).Vlastatalllevelsisformostpeopleaforcethathadanunwritten,God-givenrighttoexploitthemin
exchangeforbringingordertotheirlives.SowhenwesayPutinispopularornotethathisratingsarehigh,thatdoesnotnecessarily
indicateadorationfororevenalikingoftheCzar,but,rather,anacceptancethatheiseffectivelyplayinghisrole.Whenthepeoplereachthe
pointofexhaustionorfrustrationandvlast(atwhateverlevel)hasbeende-sacralized(andseenasnotplayingthearbiterrole),thenwehave
thebunt,aburstofrevolt,oftenviolent.Suchburstsofenergyareusuallyfollowedbyareturntoapathy,orrather,asenseofresignation
(andthisisnotanattributeofthenarod,thebroadmasses,alone,butonewehaveseeninthecaseofthecreativeclassaswell).
Arutunyan,likesomanyothersbeforeher,describestheRussiansystemaspatrimonial,paternalistic,andfeudal,(whilenotentirely
accurate,theemphasisisonpersonalrelationshipsloyaltytopersons).Andshe,againnotunlikemanyotherobservers,backsuptoIvanthe
TerriblesdivisionofRussianlandsintooprichnina(landsofthesovereign)andzemshchina(belongingtothearistocracy)andthecreationof
hisoprichniki,whocarriedoutwhatwenowcallare-divisionofproperty,inexplainingthateverythinginfactbelongstothesovereignorthe
state:thus,theconnectionsbetweenpropertyandpower.Thesystemisoneofinformal,extralegalunderstandingsamongtheplayers(the
Czaratwhateverlevelandvassals)andtheirclans.Endemiccorruptiongrewfromtheimperialcentersapprovalofkormlenie,the
empiresbureaucracylivingoffthelandbyboostingtheirlowpaywithbribes(soRussiaacceptedthenotionthatabureaucratwhostealsor
acceptsbribeswithinthelimitsacceptabletoaparticularpostisnotdoinganyharm).Thelordofaparticularnetworkofvassals,however,
isasdependentonthemastheyareonthelordortheultimateboss,theCzar,sincethelordmustdeliverthegoodsproperty/thefeed
troughinexchangeforloyalty.Buteachimperialadministrativeunitisdistantfromthelordshigherupthefoodchain,operatingassemi-
autonomousfiefdoms.Sowehavetheparadoxofapowerverticaloverlayingavastpatchworkoffiefdomsthatdonotalwaysconformtothe
centerswishes,thoughthewholepatchworkdependsontheperceptionofthemysteriouspoweroftheCzarorthemajestyofthestate.There
arelimitsonPutinspower.
Putin,however,unliketheCzarsofthePast,ortheGeneralSecretariesoftheSovietperiod,evenallowingforradioandTVcoveragefromthe
30son,isnotsodistantfromthepeopleastheCzarsorStalinwere.Inmyview,hedoesnotquiteseemtoliveinacloudoronamountaintop,
descendingfromOlympustoaidthenarod.HeisafamiliarfiguretotheRussianpopulationinawaythatmostpastrulerswerenot,Ithink.21st
centurymediacoveragemeansthatPutinisunderconstantscrutinythesacredveneeristhinnerandmorefragileandthereisnotight
commandchainoratmosphereofterrorthatcouldcompelevenhisoprichnikitoenforcemassrepressionorfollowhiseverydirective.Putins
marginforerror,whileconsiderable,isnotsogreatde-sacralizationisamuchmoreeverpresentthreat,IthinkandtheKremlinhasfeared
abuntforsometime.
AsIvewrittenmanytimesbefore,legitimacyismajorproblemforthepost-Communistregimeforallthesacrednatureofvlastandthe
mysteriousauraofthestate,Putinissubjecttotheelectoralprocessandhisplayingtherolesofprotector,provider,benevolentstronghand,
andsymbolasnationalleaderaretemperedbythenecessityofatleastsomecompliancewithdemocraticprocedures.Theprotestwaveof
2011-2012wasprecededbyaneconomiccrisisthatdisappointeduncharacteristicallyraisedpopularexpectationsandtherewereplentyofsigns
thatthosewhowantedasecondMedvedevtermweredoingallthattheycouldtode-sacralizePutinsimage.Intheend,Putinsustainedhimself
therewasnooneamongtheeliteswhoappearedcredibleaspotentiallyreplacinghimintherolesPutinhadmastered,particularlythatofelite
mediator(balancingtheclans)orinhisCzarpersona.
IvewrittenbeforethatPutin,unlikeGorbachevorYeltsin,has,inhisway,delivered.HehasdeliveredinplayingtheCzarrole(andgainingthe
regimelegitimacy)andaselitemediator.Hehasbeenabletosurviveandsustainhisauraasnationalleader.Therearethosewhowanthim
outsoonerratherthanlater,butPutinhasbolsteredhiscredentialsasCzar/nationalleaderthroughtheUkrainecrisisandespeciallythe
annexationofCrimea.UnlikeGorbachev,hehasnotworkedtode-sacralizehispositionorthatofthestateglasnostandperestroika
backfiredbyde-legitimizingtheSovietstateandde-sacralizingGorbachev,whowasultimatelyunabletoplaythegoodCzarroleandanswer
thepleasofthenarodsufferingastheSovieteconomyandpoliticalstructurescollapsed(nationalismintheSovietrepublicsalsoplayedabigrole
inthisitwasaforceIdontthinkGorbacheveverreallyunderstoodorsawcoming).Yeltsinwasunabletoplaythatroleaswellandthoughhe
lookedthepartofapopulistCzar,theSovietcollapse,hiserraticbehavioranddeclininghealth(broughtonbyhisheavydrinking),andthe
failureofthenewregimetobuildalegitimizingmythwithdemocraticlanguageandsymbolsde-sacralizedhimaswell.Hehadtosavehimself
byplacingallhisbetsonPutinitprovedtobeagoodchoiceandPutinwasaveryfortunatebeneficiaryofeconomicgrowthfollowingthe
devaluationof1998combinedwithrisingoilprices.Lackinganeffectivefoundingmyth,thepost-CommunistregimeunderPutinhasfallenback
onfearsofinstabilityandananodynegreatpowernesstobolsteritsclaimstolegitimacy.
(PutincantquitegoallthewayandrejecttheYeltsinperiodoutrightasheisaproductofthatperiodandremainsloyaltothelateYeltsin
personallyifhecouldgothatrouteanddenouncetheperiodoutright,thenafoundingmythisreadilyavailableintheeverpresentplotto
destroyRussia,withYeltsinactingaschieffifthcolumnistandPutinastheheroofrestoration.Itwouldbetheoldstoryofafallfromgrace
andarestorationoftruthandjustice.Butgoingfullboreonthatalreadyextantstorylinewouldgetcomplicatedbytheurgetorenationalizeand
re-privatize[ornot]andrejectdemocracyassuch,whichneitherPutinnorthemajorityofelites,Ithink,wanttododespitetheanti-Western
turn,Idontthinkanyofthemwanttobeleadersofaroguestate,sowegetthehalfwayhousetheyareinnow)
Putinmayhavetalkedofadictatorshipoflawwhenhebecamepresident,buthehasinstinctivelyfallenintothefamiliarrolesofclan
mediatorandnationalleader/Czarwithallthebaggagethatcomeswiththem.Hehassometimessaidthatcorruptionisnotsomethingthat
canbeendedaltogetherandhisbehaviorindicatesthathebelievesthatRussiacannotberuledanyotherwayandthatifhetriestoleavethe
scene,itmaybedisastrousforbothRussiaandhimselfpersonally.
TherewastalkatonepointthatcapitalisminRussiahadfailed,butIdontthinkthatsthebestwaytolookatwhatpost-CommunistRussiawas
andis:RussiaremainsRussiaasitremainedaftertheBolshevikRevolution,thoughonethathasbeencrammedintothecapitalistframework
andhavingmadethattransition,comesoutasweseeittoday.ThisiswhatRussialookslikewithcapitalism,justasStalinandBrezhnev
reflectedwhatRussiawaslikewhenCommunisminpracticewasapplied(thecommunalasmasscollective,forexample).Itsnotprettyinmany
respects,butitsthem.
TheclansystemisnotsomethingthathasbeenimposedonRussiansocietyfromoutsideorabove,butareflectionofwhatRussiaisnow:alow
trust,fragmented,demographicallydecliningpost-imperialstatewithapatrimonialpastinwhichtheweakformalinstitutionsacttomaskthe
actualconstitutionofunderstandingsamongclansmediatedatthetopbyV.V.Putin,whoisthemostimportantplayerinthesystem,but
nodictator.
IthinkofArutunyansdescriptionofRussiaasonethatisveryusefulasafromthetopaxisforunderstandingRussianpoliticsandsociety.If
wehavepatrimonial/sacredvlastRussiaasaverticalaxisexplainingthestate-societyrelationshipfromonhigh,thenIthinkmyclan
descriptionworksasthehorizontalaxis,lookingatRussiafromthegroundup.Thisnexusistheframeworkthatisnecessaryforinterpreting
Russianpolitics,Russianactions,andRussiansociety.Lookingattheclanparadigmalone,wealsohaveaverticalaxisofclan
relationshipsbusinesslinksandbureaucraticpartnershipsamongplayers(vassalsandlords)thatisjustbusinessandmoresubjectto
situationalchanges.Thehorizontalaxisofrelationshipsarecloser,morepersonalclosestfriendsandfamilymembersandtheclans
oftencreatedynastiesthroughmarriages,placementofcloserelatives,andunderstandingsthatarelesscontractualandmorepersonal.
ThetwowaysoflookingatRussiaandexplainingitpolitically,economically,andsociallycomplementeachother,representingthesamesubject
viewedfromdifferentanglesofatheoreticalprism.
Theresnothingoriginalineither,butbytryingtointegratethem,Ithinkwecangetclosertoarealunderstandingofoursubject.Thereisan
eternalRussiathatlivesoninhoweveradistortedordegradedform(weshouldnotforgetthatoldRussiamadecontributionstoourbroad
civilizationinart,music,literature,andsciencethatfewcountriescanboastof),ariddle,aparadox,EuropeanbutnotWestern,spiritualand
poetic,greedyandmaterialistic,asceticandgluttonous,piousandprofane,generousandthuggish,pretentiousandkeenlyselfawareallatthe
sametime.]

Finally,anotherRussianparadox.IveoftenwrittenthattheRussianpoliticalsystemisperpetuallyinastateofapparentinstability.Theclans
arefamouslybattlingoneanother,everyelectionistreatedasacrisis,theregimeisconstantlytryingtobolsteritslegitimacy,andtheCzar
(Putin)hastoconstantlythinkabouthisownpersonalsafety(aswellasthatofhisfamily),makingarrangingagracefulexitandachangeof
powertricky,oneofthemajorreasonsPutinremainspresident,apartfromhisplayingtherolesmentionedabove.
Yet(assomeofoursourceshavementioned)theregimehasreservesofsustainability.Putinhassurvivedmorethanonecrisisinwhichhe
appearedtobehighlyvulnerable(themonetizationcrisis,forexample,thentheprotestwave,andnowaUkraine/economiccrisis).
IthinkthiscanbeexplainedbyanumberoffactorstheRussianpopulationislargelyapatheticandpassive(thereare,asmentionedabove,
occasionalburstsofenergy,thenareturntopassivityorresignation)TheRussianpopulationisagingandshrinkingthenationisless
dynamic,thereislessvitalitytheRussianpopulationstendencytoadapt(and,withafewexceptions,itsgenerallycynicalattitudeandlow
expectations)vlasthasbeenabletoeffectivelymanagedemocracy,andestablishanoalternativespoliticalscenePutinhasplayedhis
assignedrolesasclanmediatorandCzarandtheeliteareverycautious.
Sincethe1993shootout,therehavebeenoccasionswhenthesystemseemedtobeheadedforopenconflictamongitsleadingelements,buteach
time,thepeoplewhomatterhavebackedawayfromthecliff.Itappearedthatthesystemwasinturmoilandanopenconflictcouldhavebrokenout
aftertheNemtsovmurder,forinstance.ButtheoldRussianfearofchaos,ofanarchyplaysintosupportingsustainability.Asnotedanumberof
timesbyyourstruly,Putinhasactedasmediatorinsuchawaythattoplevelelitesaresafe,atleastfromassassination.TheNemtsovmurder
wasnervewrackingforthem,butNemtsovwasnolongeratoptierplayer,therewerenootherkillings,andmembersofthebattlingfactionsdid
notresorttoarrestingoneanother,sothesituationcalmeddown.Andnoonewantstobethefirsttosticktheirneckoutthenseenobody
followingthemoutontowhatturnsouttobeagangplank.
Thereisaproblem(withPutinslengtheningreign,Imean)inthatotherambitiousplayersKudrin,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Rogozinamong
themarebeingblockedfromtheultimateprizeofthepresidency.Theagingofthetoptierplayers(whoremaininplace)alsocreatesa
bottleneckforthosebelowwishingtoclimbtheladder.Thatproblemispartiallychanneledintothecurrentunder-the-carpetstruggleoverthe
fateofthegovernmentSergeyIvanovmaynotbepresidentanytimesoon,buthecouldbepremier,andotherscouldjockeytomoveuptheladder
intoministerialpositions.ItspossiblethatasPutinages,moreresponsibilitycouldbeshiftedtothepremier(assumingPutinfeelshecould
checkthatifneedbe)andtheyoungerplayerscouldfightoverpositionsintheWhiteHouseandKremlinadministration.
Thus,thesystemisapparentlyfragile,andseemstobeconstantlythreatenedbyinstability,yethasproventobesustainable,moresothanmany
thought.IvewrittenpreviouslythatascenarioinwhichPutinisforcedoutispossible,butitwouldtakealottogetthere.Withoutsomesortof
perfectstorm,Putinwillbearoundforawhile.Ithinkheseeshimselfasnationalleaderforlife.]
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-parliament-consider-approving-military-force-abroad-agencies-072043251.html
RussiasaiditlaunchedairstrikesagainstIslamicStateinSyriaonWednesdayafterPresidentVladimirPutinsecuredhisparliament'sunanimous
backingtointervenetopropuptheKremlin'sclosestMiddleEastally.
MoscowgaveWashingtonjustanhour'snoticeofthestrikes,whichsetintrainRussia'sbiggestplayintheregionsincethe1991collapseofthe
SovietUnion,aU.S.officialsaid.
TargetsintheHomsareaappearedtohavebeenstruck,butnotareasheldbyIslamicState,theU.S.officialsaid.
TheRussianDefenseMinistrysaidhoweverthatitsattacksweredirectedatIslamicStatemilitarytargets.
Putinsaidtheonlywaytofight"terrorists"inSyriawastoactpreemptively.Russia'smilitaryinvolvementintheMiddleEastwouldonlyinvolveits
airforceandwouldbetemporary.
TheHomsareaiscrucialtoPresidentBasharal-Assad'scontrolofwesternSyria.InsurgentcontrolofthatareawouldbisecttheAssad-heldwest,
separatingDamascusfromthecoastalcitiesofLatakiaandTartous,whereRussiaoperatesanavalfacility.
AU.S.-ledcoalitionhasalreadybeenbombingIslamicStateinIraqandSyria,butPutinderidedU.S.effortstoendtheSyriawarattheUnited
NationsonMonday,suggestingabroaderandmorecoordinatedcoalitionwasneededtodefeatthemilitants.
"ThemilitaryaimofouroperationswillbeexclusivelytoprovideairsupporttoSyriangovernmentforcesintheirstruggleagainstISIS(Islamic
State),"SergeiIvanov,theKremlin'sChief-of-Staff,saidbeforereportsthatthestrikeshadbegun.
RussiahasbeensteadilydispatchingmoreandmoremilitaryaircrafttoabaseinLatakia,regardedasanAssadstronghold,aftertheSyrian
governmentsufferedaseriesofbattlefieldreverses.
MoscowhasalreadysentmilitaryexpertstoarecentlyestablishedcommandcenterinBaghdadwhichiscoordinatingairstrikesandgroundtroops
inSyria,aRussianofficialtoldReuters.
Ivanov,theKremlin'sChiefofStaff,saidRussia'smissionswouldbelimitedandnotopen-ended.Heprecludedtheuseofgroundtroops.
"Asourpresidenthasalreadysaid,theuseofgroundtroopshasbeenruledout,"saidIvanov.
Russia'sinvolvementinSyriawillbeafurtherchallengeforMoscow,whichisalreadyinterveninginUkraineatatimewhenitsowneconomyis
sufferingfromlowoilpricesandWesternsanctions.
OpinionpollsalsoshowRussianvotershavelittleappetiteforalongcampaign,withpainfulmemoriesoftheSovietUnion's1979-89interventionin
Afghanistan,inwhichthousandsofSoviettroopswerekilled,stillfresh.SeetheLevadapollinginyesterdaysnotes.
ButasRussianrealincomesfallforthefirsttimesincePutincametopower,thespectacleofthecountryflexingitsmilitarymusclesoverseas,could
alsobeausefuldistractionfortheKremlin.
Ivanovsaidtheupperhouseofparliamenthadbackedmilitaryactionby162votestozeroafterAssadhadaskedforRussianmilitaryassistance.
TheSyrianpresidencyconfirmedthatinastatement,sayingAssadhadwrittentoPutinandRussiawasincreasingitsmilitarysupportasadirect
resultofthatappeal.
IvanovsaidRussiawasonlyactingtoprotectitsowninterestsinSyria,whereitmaintainsaSoviet-eranavalfacilityatTartous,itsonlyaccessto
theMediterranean.
"We'retalkingspecificallyaboutSyriaandwearenottalkingaboutachievingforeignpolicygoalsoraboutsatisfyingourambitions...but
exclusivelyaboutthenationalinterestsoftheRussianFederation,"saidIvanov.
Russianmilitaryactionwouldnotbeopen-ended,headded,decliningtosaywhichaircraftwouldbeusedandwhen.
"TheoperationsoftheRussianairforcecannotofcoursegoonindefinitelyandwillbesubjecttoclearlyprescribedtimeframes."
Russia'sdecisiontointerveneinSyriawaspromptedbyapanickyrealizationthattheSyriangovernmentwasbeingturnedoveronthebattlefield,
diplomatsandanalystshavetoldReuters.
WhenitsawseveralmonthsagothatSyriangovernmentforceswereretreatingonseveralfrontsataratethatthreatenedAssad,itsclosestMiddle
Eastally,theKremlinquietlydecidedtodespatchmoremen,weaponryandarmor.
Putin'sspokesmansaidthevotebytheFederationCouncil,Russia'supperhouseofparliament,meantMoscowwouldbepracticallytheonly
countryinSyriatobeconductingoperations"onalegitimatebasis"andattherequestof"thelegitimatepresidentofSyria".
ThelasttimetheRussianparliamentgrantedPutintherighttodeploytroopsabroad,atechnicalrequirementunderRussianlaw,Moscowseized
CrimeafromUkrainelastyear.
Putinneededtogetparliament'sbackingtoensurethatanymilitaryoperationwaslegalunderthetermsoftheRussianconstitution.
ANovayaGazetaarticleontheFederationCouncilapprovingmilitaryactioninSyria:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/70150.htmlThevotewastakeninaclosedsession.Therewasnooppositionandnoone
abstained.NovayaclaimsthattheRussianattacksareinparttargetingoilpipelinesbeingusedbyISISNovayasaysthatthe
militaryhasbeenconsultingwiththeRussianoilsectoronattackingstationsthatpumptheoil(tradedascontraband)throughthe
pipelinesystem
Atasessionwiththegovernmenttoday,PutinagainsaidthatRussiawouldnotgettoodeeplyinvolvedintheconflictinSyria,
supportingtheSyrianarmyfromtheaironly:http://www.newsru.com/russia/30sep2015/syria_3.html
"
",-,,"
"."
",-.
PutinaddedthatRussiashouldcombatterroristsbeforetheyreachedRussianterritory.TherearethousandsfightingwithISISwho
cametotheMiddleEastfromEuropeandRussiaiftheyaresuccessfulinSyria,thentheywillthreatenEuropeandRussia,which
ISIShasalreadydeclaredanenemy.
Meanwhile,KadyrovwassayingthatthousandsofvolunteerswerereadytogotoSyriatofightISISontheground.Kadyrovsaid
itwasapitythatonlyairpowerwasbeingused
RussiareportedlyinformedtheUSandIsraelabouttheplannedairstrikesRBKssourcessaythattheairstrikesaretargeting
ISISpersonnelandinfrastructure,includingmunitionsandfueldepotsBritainsIndependent
(http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/what-s-russia-up-to-in-syria-i-would-wager-theyre-after-something-big-retaking-palmyra-
a6669446.html)reportsthattheRussianaimistohelptheSyrianarmyretakethecityofPalmyra
AnEnglishversionofPutinsremarkstothegovernmentontheairstrikesinSyria:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50401
Wewillstartwithanissuethatwilllikelybethesubjectofmuchdiscussiontoday,namely,myrequesttotheFederationCouncilonusingRussias
ArmedForcesbeyondourcountrysborders.TheFederationCouncilhasexaminedthisrequestandapprovedit.
Syriaistheissuehere.Theonlyrealwaytofightinternationalterrorism(andinternationalterroristgroupsarecreatingchaosinSyria
andtheterritoryofneighboringcountriesrightnow)istotaketheinitiativeandfightanddestroytheterroristsintheterritorytheyhavealready
capturedratherthanwaitingforthemtoarriveonoursoil.
WeallknowthatthousandsofpeoplefromEuropeancountries,Russia,andthepost-Sovietregionhavejoinedtheranksoftheso-calledIslamic
State,aterroristorganizationthatIwanttostressagainhasnothingtodowithgenuineIslam.Thereisnoneedtobeanexperttorealizethatif
theysucceedinSyria,theywillinevitablyreturntotheirowncountries,andthisincludesRussia.
WeallknowtoothattheIslamicStatelongsincedeclaredourcountryitsenemy.Today,anumberofcountries,includingtheUnitedStates,
AustraliaandFrance,areusingtheirairforcestocarryoutairstrikesagainsttheIslamicStatespositionsinSyria.
Wehavealwaysconsistentlysupportedthefightagainstinternationalterrorism.Atthesametime,webelievethatitmustproceedstrictly
inaccordancewithinternationallaw,inotherwords,onthebasisofUNSecurityCouncilresolutionsorattherequestofthecountryinneed
ofmilitaryassistance.OurpartnersoperationsinSyriahaveneitherofthesethingsastheirbasis,butwenonethelessthinkitpossible
andnecessarytounitetheeffortsofallconcernedcountriesinthefightagainstinternationalterrorismandbasethiscommoneffortontheUN
Charter.
Atthisstage,Iproposethatallcountriesconcerned,inparticularthecountriesintheregion,starttakingpartintheworkoftheinternational
informationandeventuallycoordinationcentreinBagdad.
Theonlyrealwaytofightinternationalterrorismistotaketheinitiativeandfightanddestroytheterroristsintheterritorytheyhavealready
WehaveinformedallofourpartnersaboutRussiasplansandactionsinSyria.Letmerepeat:Russiasinvolvementintheanti-terroristoperations
inSyriaisinaccordancewithinternationallawandbasedontheofficialrequestfromthePresidentoftheSyrianArabRepublic.
IwanttostressthepointthoughthattheconflictinSyriahasdeeprootsandistheresultofmanyfactors.Thisincludesinterstateanddomestic
politicalfactors,andreligiousandinterethnicdifferences,whichhavebeenexacerbatedbyunceremoniousforeigninterventionintheregions
affairs.
Giventhesecircumstances,wenaturallyhavenointentionofgettingdeeplyentangledinthisconflict.Wewillactstrictlyinaccordancewithour
setmission.First,wewillsupporttheSyrianarmyonlyinitslawfulfightagainstterroristgroups.Second,oursupportwillbelimitedtoairstrikes
andwillnotinvolvegroundoperations.Third,oursupportwillhavealimitedtimeframeandwillcontinueonlywhiletheSyrianarmyconductsits
anti-terroristoffensive.
Ourviewisthatafinalandlong-termsolutiontothesituationinSyriaispossibleonlyonthebasisofpoliticalreformanddialoguebetweenall
healthyforcesinthecountry.IknowthatPresidental-Assadknowsthisandisreadyforthisprocess.Wearecountingonhisactiveandflexible
positionandhisreadinesstomakecompromisesforthesakeofhiscountryandpeople.
Russiasinvolvementintheanti-terroristoperationsinSyriaisinaccordancewithinternationallawandbasedontheofficialrequestfrom
thePresidentoftheSyrianArabRepublic
TheRussian:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50401
More.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/index.html
KerrysaidtheU.S.-ledcoalitionhadconducted3,000airstrikesagainstISISandthateffortswoulddramaticallyincrease.
HewarnedthatthefightagainstISISshouldnotbeconfusedwithwithsupportforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.
"Moreover,wehavealsomadeclearthatwewouldhavegraveconcernsshouldRussiastrikeareaswhereISILandalQaedaaffiliated
targetsarenotoperating.StrikesofthatkindwouldquestionRussia'srealintentions--fightingISILorprotectingtheAssadregime,"he
said.
AseniorU.S.defenseofficialtoldCNNthePentagonwas"takenaback"byRussia'sactions."Ourpresidentsjusttalkedaboutsetting
upde-conflictiontalksandnowtheyjustgoaheadanddothis?Theycannotbetrusted."
AsecondU.S.officialsaid,"Thisisnothowmilitaryrelationsareconducted."
Andanother
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-begins-air-strikes-in-syria/536327.html
TheDefenseMinistryonWednesdaysaidthatairstrikeswouldbecoordinatedwithS y r i a,IraqandIranviaarecentlyestablished
intelligencecenterinBaghdad.
UnidentifiedDefenseMinistrysourcestoldInterfaxthatonlyRussianofficersandsoldierswhovolunteerfordutyinS y r i awouldbe
sent.TheheadofRussia'sGeneralStaff,ColonelGeneralNikolaiBogdanovsky,saidnoconscriptswouldbedeployed,Interfaxreported.
TheKremlin'sannouncementthatitwastakingthefighttotheIslamicState,whichhasaround2,400Russiancitizensreportedly
fightingforitmainlyfromthepredominantlyMuslim-populatedrepublicsofChechnyaandDagestandrewstrongsupport
fromtheRussianOrthodoxChurch.
TheChurch'shead,PatriarchKirill,saida"responsibledecision"hadbeentaken"fortheprotectionoftheSyrianpeoplefromcalamities
inflictedbytheiniquityofterrorists,"accordingtoastatementpublishedontheChurch'swebsite.
AspokesmanfortheMoscowPatriarchate,VsevolodChaplin,wasquotedbytheInterfax-Religionnewsserviceascallingtheflight
againstIslamicextremism"aholywar."
Likewise,ChechenleaderRamzanKadyrov,abombasticandoutspokensupporterofPutinandhispoliciesandhimselfaMuslim,saidhe
washappytoseeRussiainterveneinS y r i a,butwasdisappointedgroundoperationswereruledout.
Kadyrovpromisedtojointhefirstwaveofgroundforces,iftheyweredeployed.ChechenfightersloyaltoKadyrovandPutinare
believedtohavetakenpartinfightingineasternUkraine,whereKremlin-backedrebelshavebeenfightingUkrainiangovernment
forces.
ThelasttimetheFederationCouncilauthorizedPutintouseforceabroadwasinMarch2014,justbeforeRussia'sannexationofCrimea
fromUkraine.TheauthorizationwasrevokedinlateJune2014,atPutin'surging.
Putin'srequestforpermissiontouseforceinS y r i awasunexpectedandpassedthroughtheFederationCouncilquickly,andwithno
dissentingvotes.162ofthe170-memberbodyvotedyes,whileeightlegislatorswerenotpresentforthevote.
ThechairmanoftheFederationCouncil'sdefenseandsecuritycommittee,ViktorOzerov,toldtheRussianNewsServiceonWednesday
thatPutinsubmittedhisrequesttothelegislativebodyonMondaywhileinNewYorkattendingtheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly.
InhisaddresstotheUN,PutinproposedthecreationofabroadinternationalcoalitiontofighttheIslamicStateinS y r i a.Later,Putin
metwithU.S.PresidentBarackObamabehindcloseddoorstodiscussS y r i a,amongotherthings.
ARussianofficialinBaghdadnotifiedtheU.S.justonehourbeforeMoscowlaunchedairstrikesinS y r i a,andrequestedthatU.S.
aircraftavoidSyrianairspace,U.S.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaidWednesday.
TheannouncementthattheRussianairforcewouldbeginairoperationsinS y r i asparkedastreamofcommentsonsocialmedia
comparingittotheSovietUnion's1979decisiontosendtroopstoAfghanistantosupportastrugglingsocialistregimethere.
TheAfghanwar,whichlastedmorethannineyears,sawaround15,000Soviettroopsdie,andpromptedtheriseofvirulent
andviolentIslamistextremismintheregion.
RussianofficialsofallstripeswereadamantWednesdaythatthecountry'smilitaryactionsinS y r i awouldbelimitedtoairstrikes
andthatnoRussiansoldierswouldbedeployedtofightalongsideAssad'sarmyagainsttheIslamicStateorWestern-backedopposition
forces.
"Wewon'tenterariskzone,wherewewouldbedraggedintoalong-termconflictorwhenourservicemen'slivesareatstake,"thehead
oftheFederationCouncil'sforeignaffairscommittee,KonstantinKosachyov,toldtheRossiya-24televisionchannel,accordingtoa
transcriptbytheSputniknewsagency.
However,thereisalreadysomeindicationthatRussianforcesareonthegroundfightingforAssad'ssurvival.Videosappearedonline
earlierthismonthreportingtoshowRussianequipmentoperatedbyRussiansoldiersengagingincombatinS y r i a.
Followingthestrikes,U.S.officialssaidthattheRussianwarplaneshadhittargetsintheHomsregion,anareacontestedbyanti-Assad
rebels,butnottheIslamicState.
AnalystspolledbyTheMoscowTimesonTuesdayaboutwhatRussia'sso-called"redline"mightbeforafull-scaleopenintervention
inthefour-year-oldSyriancivilwarsaidthatoperationswerelikelytoberestrictedtoairstrikes.
However,YuvalWeber,anassistantprofessorofinternationalrelationsatMoscow'sHigherSchoolofEconomicstoldTheMoscowTimes
onWednesdaythatbydeclaringlimitedinvolvementinAssad'swar,RussiawasrepeatingU.S.mistakesearlyintheVietnamwar.
"Bycommittingtoanallyfacingadeterminedandindigenousfoe,PresidentPutinisputtinghimselfinasimilarpositiontoPresident
JohnsonregardingSouthVietnaminlate1964,early1965,"Webersaid.
Webersaidthatwhennationscommitlimitedmilitaryforce,andstaketheirprestigeontheoutcomeoftheconflict,theincentive
becomestoincreasetheirmilitarycommitmenttoprotecttheirreputation.
ThoughRussia'smovemightsimplybeabidtosaveanembattledally,itmightalsobeabidtoreverseMoscow'sstatusasaglobal
pariahafteritsactionsinUkraine."Thelargerstrategicissueiswhether[this]isanattempttocreateissuelinkagewithUkraine:
genuinelyhelptheU.S.-ledcoalitionintheMiddleEasttogainconcessionsinEurope,"hesaid.
http://www.1tv.ru/news/polit/293167
PutinisshowntakingselfieswithUNdelegatesandthestoryhasVVP(atapressconference)claimingtheAmericanside
initiatedthemeeting(Comment:AfacesavinglineusedmanytimesinKremlinstorylinesonUS-Russiameetingsand
phonecallsbetweenthepresidents).

Kremlin.ruhaspostedatranslationofPutinsQ&AwithjournalistsattheUN:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50394
http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_9847%2Fall
ThemainsuccessofPutinstriptoNewYorkwasthatofthePRpeople.Propagandaraisedexpectationsaroundtheevent.
PutinsspeechsummarizedRussiasalreadywellknownpositions.Therewasnotanythingfundamentallynewinit.Andthe
hiddenexchangeofpolemicaldigswiththeUSwasntanythingnew,either.
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-soldier-motorola-seen-fighting-in-syria-2015-9
Awell-knownRussiansoldierimplicatedinwarcrimesineasternUkrainehasnowbeenspottedinSyria.
PhotosallegedlytakeninSyriashowArsenyPavlov,betterknownbyhisnomdeguerreMotorla,fightinginthecountry.OnephotohasMotorola
holdingagunwhilewearingauniformemblazonedwiththeSyrianregimeflagandthelikenessofSyrianpresidentBasharal-Assad.
Thisisn'tthefirstsightingofMotorolainSyria.AphotoofMotorolathatemergedinmid-September,TheDailyBeastreports,featuredthe
soldierandafriendposingnexttoaportraitofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad,likelywithinSyria.
RussiaisvisiblyanddramaticallybolsteringitsmilitarypresenceinSyria.Moscowhassaidthatthesedeploymentsareintendedtohelppropthe
Assadregimebyengaginginstrikesagainstmoderaterebels,thealNusraFront,andISIS.
ThedeploymentsarestilllikelytobenefittheKremlin.RussiahasmoveddozensoffighteraircraftandmilitarysuppliestoSyria'scoastwhilealso
launchinganavalexerciseintheeasternMediterranean.ThesedeploymentsalthoughnotpopularinRussiahelpMoscowtoexpandtheir
regionalinfluencetolevelsunseensincetheColdWar.
Motorola'spresencecouldactaullyhelpRussiaputapopularfaceonitsSyriadeployment.Motorolafirstgainedprominenceduringhistimeasthe
headoftheSpartaBattalionineasternUkraine.ThemilitiagroupgainedprominenceafteritseizedtheDonetskAirportinJanuary2015,effectively
routingtheUkrainiantroopspostedthere.
PavlovallegedlyexecutedIhorBranovytsky,acapturedUkrainiansoldierinApril2015.BranovytskyhadbeencapturedattheDonetskAirportby
Russian-backedrebelforces.
AfterthekillingofBranovytsky,Motorolaallegedlyparticipatedinatelephoneinterviewinwhichheclaimedtohaveexecutedoveradozen
capturedUkrainians.
"I'veshot15prisoners.Idon'tgiveas**t.Nocomment.IkillwhoeverIwant,"Motorolasaidintheinterview.However,ithasnotbeen
independentlyverifiedthatthevoicebelongedtoMotorola.
SincefightingineasternUkraine,MotorolahasbeensubjecttoaEuropeanUnionblacklist.Butthesanctionsdon'tappeartofazehim.
"IdonothaveabankaccountabroadandIdonotplantovisitthecountriesoftheEU,sotheirsanctionsagainstmearemisplacedandpointless,"
MotorolatoldtheGeorgianJournalinMarch2015.
MotorolatoldtheGeorgianJournalthathehadpreviouslyservedasaRussiansoldierintheChechenWarinthe1990s.Intheyearsbetween
thefightinginChechnyaandUkraine,MotorolaallegedlyranacarwashinRussiaclosetotheUkrainianborder.Motorolasaidthatafterbeing
arrestedfordrunkdrivinginastolencar,hechosetofightinUkraineoverservingaprisonsentence.
KonstantinRemchukov:TheUSnotreadyforabiggerRussianroleintheMiddleEast
http://www.ng.ru/world/2015-09-29/100_russiausa.html
RemchukovsaysthatsthereasonUShasbeenwaryofPutinscommentsonaRussianroleinSyriaWashingtonhadgrown
usedtothinkingthat1973wasthelasttimeMoscowspositionhadtobetakenintoaccountintheregionPutinscontactswith
Israel,SaudiArabia,andIraninformationexchangesbetweenIraq,Iran,Russia,andSyriaandIraqrefusingtocloseitsair
spacetoRussianwarplanessignifyRussiasintentiontoreturntotheMiddleEastgreatgameinabigwayRemchukovsaysthat
theexpertshehastalkedtothinkthat(Moscows)takeoutISIS,replaceAssadlooksmorepragmaticthan(Washingtons)
removeAssad,takeoutISISthinking.WithObamaalreadydealingwiththenextpresidentialcampaignandthevariousinterest
groupswhohaveastakeintheMiddleEast,WashingtoncannotreactquicklytoMoscowsinitiativesRemchukovgoesonto
saythatexpertsbelieveairstrikesonlywontbeenoughtoreclaimterritorytakenbyISIStheISISfighterscanmoveoutharms
way,butwontnecessarilylosecontrolofterritoryKerryandLavrovworkwelltogethertheareamongfewhighlevelofficials
inWashingtonandMoscowwhotrustoneanother,saysRemchukovTherearealotofpeopleintheUSwhothinkPutins
positiononSyriaisasensibleone,butnoonecanexplainhowtoformacoalitionofMoslemstatestofightISISifWashington
remainsskepticalRemchukovclosesbysayingthatoverall,thespeechesbyObamaandPutinarecauseforoptimism.Despite
allthedisagreementsbetweenthem,nobodyisplanningtowrecktheUNthereissimplynoalternativeplatformformaking
legitimatedecisionsregardingglobalproblems
Comment:RecallthatLatyninahasclaimedthatKokhverwaskidnappedtostageanexchangeforaRussianagent.
Seethe28Septembernotes.ShehasalsoclaimedthatSavchenkowassnatchedaswell.Seethe21Augustnotes.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/ukrainian-officer-savchenko-on-trial-in-russia-says-she-was-
kidnapped/535904.html
AUkrainianofficerchargedwiththedeathsoftwoRussianjournalistsineasternUkrainesaidTuesdayshewaskidnappedbyRussiansaftershe
wascapturedbyseparatistrebels.
RussianprosecutorsclaimNadezhdaSavchenkointentionallytargetedjournalistsandcivilianswhenUkrainianforcesattackedrebelpositions
inJune2014.
Savchenko,aUkrainianpilotwhoservedinavolunteerbattalionfightingalongsidegovernmenttroopsagainstRussia-backedrebels,toldthecourt
shehadbeencapturedbeforethemortarattackonciviliansandjournalists.
Afteraweekofcaptivityintherebel-heldLuhansk,Savchenkosaid,shewashandedovertounknownmenwithRussianaccentswhotookher
acrosstheborder.Savchenkosaidarmed,maskedmentookhertoahotelinthecityofVoronezhwhereshewaskeptforaweekbeforeshewas
formallycharged.
"Iwasn'tabletogooutanywhereforaweek:Iwasguardedbymaskedmen,"saidSavchenko,whowasdressedinatraditionalUkrainian
embroideredblouse.
Savchenkosaidshewasonareconnaissancemissionwalkingafewmilesfromwherethemortarshellslanded.
Russianprosecutorshavedeniedthatshewassmuggledacrosstheborder.Instead,theyinsistthatSavchenkoescapedcaptivityinLuhansk
andsneakedintoRussiainordertoperpetrateanactofterror.
TheUkrainiangovernmenthascampaignedforSavchenko'srelease,claimingthatthechargesagainstherweretrumpedupandthatsheshouldbe
treatedasaprisonerofwar.
Sinceherdetention,SavchenkowaselectedtotheUkrainianparliamentandvotedasadelegatetotheParliamentaryAssemblyofEurope.
Savchenko'strialisbeingheldinthesmallsouthernRussiantownofDonetsk,whichhasthesamenameastheUkrainiancitythatisthemainrebel
stronghold,neartheUkrainianborder.Tuesday'ssessionwasavailableonawebcast.
Thisemailisfreefromvirusesandmalwarebecauseavast!Antivirusprotectionisactive.
Senttime: 10/05/201509:42:44AM
Subject: FW:MIDNIGHTEXPRESS.......CALLIT"VLAD-ORAMA"........
Sent:Sunday,October04,20159:27PM
Subject:Fwd:MIDNIGHTEXPRESS.......CALLIT"VLAD-ORAMA"........
Date:Mon,Oct5,2015at12:22AM
Subject:MIDNIGHTEXPRESS.......CALLIT"VLAD-ORAMA"........
Subject:RussiaCan'tSellItsSyriaPropaganda-Analysts
RussiaCan'tSellItsSyriaPropaganda[tothewest]
Analysts
ByDariaLitvinova
Oct.04201521:13
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-cant-sell-its-syria-propaganda--analysts/536932.html
AlmostassoonasthefirstreportsofRussianairstrikesinSyriahitthepress,PresidentVladimirPutinaccused
theWestoflaunchinganewassaultinaninformationwaragainstRussia.
Asthewarplanesbegantoattack,WesternjournalistsquestionedMoscow'smotives,offeringevidencethatMoscowwas
strikingnotonlytheIslamicState,butotherarmedgroupsinSyriafightingRussia'sally,PresidentBasharAssad.
ReportsalsoemergedofciviliandeathsinRussianbombingraids.
ButonThursday,adayafterthestrikesbegan,Putinwavedoffwhathecalled"informationattacks."
"Thefirstreportsofciviliancasualtiesappearedbeforeourplanestookoff,"Putinsaid,accordingtotheTASSnews
agency.
HiswordswerequicklypickedupbyRussianmedia.
"RussiaLaughsOff'Pseudo-Sensations'About'Bombed'CiviliansinSyria,"readaheadlineonSputnikInternational,
anEnglish-languagenewswebsiterunbythestate-ownedRossiyaSegodnyamediacompany.Meanwhile,claimsthat
Russiawastargetinganyonebutterroristswererefuted.
Russiahasstate-controlledmediatopushitsmessagebothinsideandoutsidethecountry.Butwhilethereisnodoubt
thatmostRussianswillreadilyagreewithwhateverPutinandthesepowerfulmediatellthem,analystssaidthat
toconvinceforeignerswouldbeanuphillbattle.ThephilosophyofRussianpropagandatotheoutsideworldhasbeen
toattackandundermineWesternnewsorganizationsandWesternleaders,nottodeliverRussia'smessage.
OneoftheKremlin'smostpowerfultoolsisRT,astate-fundedtelevisionstationthatbroadcastsinmultiplelanguages
andregions.Butthechannel"hasbeenworkingaccordingtoitsmainmodel,whichcanbedescribedas'everybodylies
andthereisnotruth,'"saidVasilyGatov,aRussianmediaanalystandvisitingfellowattheUSCAnnenbergCenter
onCommunicationLeadershipandPolicyinCalifornia.
Thistechnique"hasnotbeenuseful,andisunlikelytobeusefulinthefuture,"hetoldTheMoscowTimesinwritten
comments.
TheKremlindoesnothaveenoughresourcestoconvinceWesternsocietytobelieveitsnarrative,analystssaid.Instead,
thecountry'smediawillmaximizeeffortstopersuadeRussiansthatPutin'sinterventioninSyriaisanecessary"sacred
war"thesameschemethatwasusedduringtheUkraineconflictlastyear.
WesternNarrative
SoonafterRussianwarplanesbeganflyingsortiesonWednesday,Westernjournalistsbegantoreportevidence
ofciviliandeathsandattacksinterritorynotcontrolledbytheIslamicState,orISIS.
"TheU.S.believesRussiahaslauncheditsfirstairstrikesinSyriajusthoursafterthecountry'sparliamentapproved
VladimirPutin'srequestformilitaryintervention.[A]ctivistsinHomsandHamaprovinceshavepostedimages
andvideoonlineclaimingtoshowRussianplanesbombinggroupsofnon-ISISrebelswhoarefightingBasharal-Assad's
forces,"BritishnewspaperTheIndependentreportedWednesday.
"RussianairstrikeinSyriaTargetedCIA-BackedRebels,U.S.OfficialsSay,"readaheadlineinTheWallStreetJournal,
anAmericannewspaper,thesameday."Oneareahitwas[a]locationprimarilyheldbyrebelsreceivingfunding,arms,
[and]trainingfromCIAandallies,"saidthearticle'ssubheading.
TheGuardianwrotethat"Syrianactivists,civiliansandrebelsassertedthatRussianstrikeshadtargetedmoderateforces
whowereopposedtotheregimeofpresidentBasharAssad,aKremlinally.Thepresidentofanoppositiongroupsaid
thatatleast36civilians,includingwomenandchildren,werekilledinstrikesinHoms."
CNN,theU.S.newsnetwork,saidinanarticleonitswebsite,"AninternationalcoalitionisurgingRussiatoimmediately
ceaseattacksontheSyrianoppositionandciviliansandfocusinsteadonfightingtheISISterroristgroup."
RussianNarrative
TheRussianpropagandamachineresponded.StatetelevisionchannelsdevotedhoursofairtimetoRussianoperations
inSyria.Pro-KremlinbloggersandInternettrollsonthepayrolloftheauthoritiesimmediatelyexposednumerous"lies"
byforeignjournalists.EventheDefenseMinistrypostedseveralvideosofairstrikesaimingattherightenemy.
Vesti,astate-runtelevisionchannel,reported:"SeveralhoursafterthefirstRussianplanestookoff,mediabegan
todistributestatementsaboutairstrikeshittingciviliansandsayingtheterrorists[hit]wereinfactso-calledSyrian
oppositionsquads.Russianmilitaryofficialscalledthesereports'pseudo-sensations'[thatwere]preparedinadvance."
RT'swebsitepublishedanop-edcolumnbyNeilClark,aBritishjournalist."NosoonerhadRussianplanestakenoff
tobombISISterroristsandtheirassociatesinSyria,claimsmadebytheWest'santi-Russialobbystartedtofloodin
onlytoberepeatedinmuchoftheWesternmainstreammedia,"Clarkwrote.Thecolumnconcludedthataninformation
waragainstRussiahadbeenlaunched.
WhenaskedwhetherRThadastrategyinthisproclaimedinformationwar,thechannel'spressservicesaid,"RT
correspondentsareactuallyonthegroundinDamascusandLatakia.Meanwhile,weseeWesternoutletsquoting
casualtynumbersusingvideosofallegedRussianstrikeswhileadmittingthattheycannotestablishtheirveracity."
"Hystericalanti-Russiancampaigningisdisheartening,butnolongersurprising,"thepressservicesaidinwritten
comments.
NoChanceatConvincingtheWest
ThereisnocoordinatedefforttoattackRussiainWesternmedia,saidGatov.
WesternnewsorganizationsmaybesuspiciousofMoscow'sactionsinSyria,buttheydonothave"thecoordinationthat
Russianmediahaveshown,'working'thetopicasifoncommand,"accordingtoGatov.
"FortheU.S.andsomeEuropeanmedia,theissueofSyriahasbeenimportantforalongtime,andtheyfollowevery
eventtheremuchmorethoroughlythanRussianmedia,"hesaid.
AsfortheRussianpropagandaoutletstryingtoshiftpublicopinionintheWest,Gatovsaidtheirinfluencewastooweak
tochangeanything.
"RT'sinfluenceontheaudienceintheEnglish-speakingworldisnotstrong,"hesaid."Sputnik[International]alsohasits
audience,butitismarginalintermsofitsimportanceandpoliticalviews."
ResearchintotheglobalinfluenceofRussia'sforeignnewsservicessupportsGatov'sclaims."Accordingtoan
investigationcarriedoutby[state-runnewsagency]RIANovostiin2013,theRTtelevisionchannelissignificantly
overstatingitspopularityandisnotworththemoneythestateassignstoitfromthebudget(whichisaround14billion
[rubles,$212million]in2015,accordingtoRT),"AlexeiKovalyov,aformerRIANovostiemployee,wroteinhisblog
onMedium.com,citinganarticlefromtheU.S.DailyBeastnewswebsite.
TheKremlinsimplyhasnoresourcespowerfulenoughtopersuadetheWest,agreedNikolaiSvanidze,aprominent
journalistandmemberofthepresidentialHumanRightsCouncil.
"There'sRT,butthat'sit.RTdoesquiteathoroughjob,butit'snotenoughtosuccessfullyadvocate[Russia'spoint
ofview]inWesterncountriesthathavehugenumbersofpowerfulmediaoutlets,"hetoldTheMoscowTimesina
telephoneinterview.
Russia'spropagandamachinehasalwaysbeenaimedfirstandforemostattheRussianaudience,Svanidzesaid,
andthemethodsitisnowusingweredesignedandtestedduringtheUkrainianconflict.
"WearefightingforallthegoodintheworldagainsttheU.S.,whichrepresentsallthebadintheworldthat'show
anaverageRussianseesthesituation,"hesaid.
ButunlikeinUkraine,whereRussiaactedwithoutsupportfromanyothernation,theKremlinhasalliesandworking
relationshipsinSyria.NewsreportssayMoscowhassetupajointinformationcenterwithSyria,IraqandIraninBaghdad
tohelpcoordinateactionagainsttheIslamicState,andRussiahasestablishedacommunicationschannelwiththeU.S.
toprevent"incidents"betweenthetwocountries'warplanesinSyria,accordingtotheBBC.
DmitryOreshkin,anindependentpoliticalanalyst,saidtheKremlinwasplayingtwosidestryingtodecrease
internationaltensionandsomehowsolvethesituationquietlybyshowingthewilltocollaboratewithothergovernments,
butatthesametimeescalatingmasshysteriaabouttheconflictinsideRussia.
"Itishardtoexplain,"OreshkintoldTheMoscowTimesinaphoneinterview."Thereasoniseitheranideologicaldivision
insidetheelite,orjustacomplexgame,inwhichtheytrytolooklawabidingandnicetotheWest,whileinsidethecountry
cultivatingamorebrutalimage."
Subject:PutinAimsatSyria-andStrikesEurope
Argument
http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/10/02/syria-putin-assad-russia-ukraine/?
utm_content=bufferf5b57&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
PutinAimsatSyriaandStrikesEurope
Takenote,Europe:BybombingSyria,PutinhasfinallyputRussiabackatthecenteroftheworld.
ByBenjaminHaddad
BenjaminHaddadisaresearchfellowattheHudsonInstitute.,HannahThoburnHannahThoburnisanAdjunctFellowat
theHudsonInstituteandservedasaPeaceCorpsVolunteerinDzhankoy,Crimea.
October2,2015
OnSept.30,Russianjetsbeganairstrikesonrebel-heldterritoriesintheSyriancitiesofHama,Homs,andLatakia.Thisshould
havecomeasnosurprise.DuringhisspeechattheU.N.GeneralAssemblyonMonday,VladimirPutinlaidouthisplanfor
agenuinelybroadinternationalcoalitionagainstterrorism,acatch-alltermthatnowappearstoincludetheIslamicState,al-
NusraFront,andtheFreeSyrianArmyanyoneandeveryonewhoopposesSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.Thebombings
followedweeksofmilitarybuildupinSyriaandyearsofverbalandlethalsupportforRussiasallyAssad.
MuchhasbeenwrittenaboutthemultiplicityofpotentialmotivesbehindPutinsmilitarybuildupinSyria:defendinghisinterestsin
theMiddleEast,shoringupAssadsregime,makingRussiathepowerbrokerintheSyrianconflict,sustaininghispowerathome,
andfillingapowervacuumleftbyU.S.disinterest.Theseareallcorrect,tovaryingdegrees.Buttheyunderestimatethegeographic
extentofthatpowervacuum.BeyondtheMiddleEast,PutinsmoveinSyriacouldalsostrengthenhimonasecondfront:Europe.
Dividinganddisruptingthepost-ColdWarEuropeansecurityarchitecturehasalwaysbeenoneofPutinsmajorstrategic
goals.WhilethismaynotbethedrivingforcebehindhismovesinSyria,itcertainlyhasthepotentialtobeoneofitssideeffects.
UnlikeEuropeanleadersthemselves,theRussianpresidenttakestheEUstransformativepowerseriously,especiallyinhis
neighborhood.WhyelsewouldhehavespentsomucheffortfightingUkraines2013attempttonegotiateasimpletrade
agreementwiththeEU?
ForMoscow,aEuropeunitedbehindtheauspicesoftheEUorNATOrepresentsadangerouspotentialopponentandathreat
toitscorruptautocracy.Nowonder,then,thattheKremlinhasbeguntofinanceandpromotenationalistandanti-EUpolitical
parties,extenditspropagandaenterpriseintoEurope,andpursueenergyprojectstopitEuropeannationsagainsteachother.A
strongtransatlanticallianceislikewiseundesirablefortheKremlin.Asthetiesthatbinditfray,Russiasrelativepowerintheregion
growsstronger.PutinsdecisiontoactinSyria,coupledwithAmericanvacillation,hasofferedhimyetanotheropportunitytodrive
awedgebetweenEuropeansandAmericans.
Inrecentmonths,EuropehasbeguntofeelthecollateraldamagefromtheconflictinSyria.Asitsgovernmentsstruggletofinda
wayforwardwiththerefugeecrisisandastheterroristthreatfromEuropean-bornjihadisreturningfromtheMiddleEastincreases,
publicpressuretoformulatearesponsetotheSyriancrisishasintensified.PollsshowthatalargemajorityoftheFrenchfavor
interventionagainsttheIslamicStateinSyria.Thereisevenincreasingsupportforbootsonthegroundamongwar-weary
Britons.OnSept.27,FranceannounceditsfirstairstrikeagainstanIslamicStatetrainingcampinDeiral-Zor,Syria,claimingself-
defenseagainstattacksbeingpreparedonEuropeansoil.FrancehadpreviouslyrefrainedfromstrikesonSyriansoilover
concernsthattheywouldreinforceAssadsregime.
ThefewEuropeanleadersstillholdingastronglineonthenecessityofAssadsousterappearincreasinglyisolated.AttheGeneral
Assembly,FrenchPresidentFranoisHollandespokeunambiguouslyoftheconnectionbetweenAssadsrepressionandtheriseof
theIslamicState,callingtheleaderthetheoriginofthisproblem[who]cannotbepartofthesolution.Inprinciple,Britainsprime
minister,DavidCameron,andGermanChancellorAngelaMerkelalsoseeAssadsousterasarequirementforasolutiontothe
Syriancrisis.InaninterviewonSept.29,CameronsaidheagreeswiththeU.S.positionthatAssadcouldplayaroleina
transitionalgovernment,butheresistedthenotionofworkingwiththeSyrianpresidenttodefeattheIslamicStateandbackshis
departure.Merkel,similarly,hascalledfortalkswithAssad.Forhispart,ItalianPrimeMinisterMatteoRenziseemstoback
RussiassupportofAssad,saying,ItisimpossibletoachievepeacewithoutRussiainvolved.
Doubtless,theportionofPutinsvisittoParisonOct.2thatdealtwithSyriawasdesignedtomoveHollandeawayfromthe
AmericanstanceandintolinewiththeKremlin.Atthispoint,thatremainsunlikely.
ForEuropeans,joiningPutinscoalitiontosaveAssadwouldbeakintosanctioningbombingrunsthatwillonlyexacerbatethe
refugeecrisisandincreasethenumberofstrikestargetingWestern-backedrebelsandcivilians.
ButwhiletheFrenchgovernmenthascalledouttheRussiansfortheirhypocrisy,Washingtonappearsmuchmorehesitantto
confrontMoscow.HowlongcantheUnitedStatesexpectitsalliestosupportalineitbarelycarestodefend?Itsfailureto
interveneafterSyriacrossedtheredlineontheuseofchemicalweapons,leavingitspartnershanging,hadalreadyerodedits
credibility.Washingtonthenturneddownitsalliescallsformorerobustinvolvement,fromenforcingno-flyzones
toprovidingwidersupportformoderaterebels.ThenewfactsonthegroundcreatedbyRussiawillsoonrenderallthoseprevious
optionsobsolete.
ShouldRussiasnarrativeonSyriacarrytheday,theconsequenceswilltestthereliabilityofU.S.leadership.European
governmentsthathavespentpoliticalcapitalsupportingWashingtonspositionfromthestartoftheSyriancrisis,nowpressuredto
prioritizethefightagainsttheIslamicStateinsteadofoustingAssad,arelefttoponderifPutinhasbeenrightallalong.Isheamore
reliableallythanWashington?Inanycase,RussiasmoveislessofanenigmatoEuropeanpolicymakersthanitistotheWhite
House.IfI[were]RussiaandIran,Iwouldactexactlythesameway,aseniorEuropeandiplomattoldForeignPolicy.
But,moredangerously,thisgoesbeyondSyria.RussianinvolvementinSyriaisinextricablylinkedtotheongoingconflictin
Ukraine.
Miraculously,Russian-backedviolenceineasternUkrainedieddownattheverysametimethattheRussianmilitarybegan
expandingitspresenceinSyria.DespitetherelativequietineasternUkraine,thebloodshedcontinues,andOSCE
monitorsbelievethattheRussian-backedseparatistsgrowstrongerbytheday.ShouldtheUkrainiansituationremaincalm,
Europeanleaderswillhaveahardtimeexplainingwhytheymustmaintainsanctionsontheverycountrytheyrecountingonto
solvetheSyrianproblem.GeneratingsuchconfusionissurelyoneofPutinsgoals.
SanctionsdontcomecheapforEuropeaneconomies.TheEuropeanCommissionprojectsthatUkraine-relatedsanctionscost
Europeaneconomies0.3GDPpointsin2014and2015anon-negligiblecut,wheneurozoneGDPisonlyexpectedtogrowby
1.5percentin2015.Inshort,thesanctionsregimeisexpensive,divisive,andEuropeanleadersarebeginningtomakenoiseabout
theirdesiretorebuildtraderelationswithRussia.Theirbusinesscommunitiesdemandit,andEuropesattentionspanforthe
conflictinUkraineiswaning.
WeakenedEuropeanresolveonsanctionsplaysrightintoPutinshands:Theremovalofsanctionswouldbothaidhisreentryinto
politeinternationalsocietyandremovetheheavypressureonhiseconomy.Inessence,heisaskingEuropeandtheUnitedStates
toforgetaboutUkraine,creatingadefactofrozenconflict,inexchangeforhisassistancewiththeSyrianconflagration.Itisalready
inmotion.InParis,theRussianpresidentdiscussedbothissueswithhisEuropeancounterpartsamiddiplomaticrumorsofnew
plansthatwouldfurtherweakentherequirementsthatRussiaanditsproxiesineasternUkraineagreedtointheMinskII
protocols.
AlthoughPeterAltmaier,Merkelschiefofstaff,hasrejectedtheideathatcooperationwithRussiaonSyriawouldchangeBerlins
positiononsanctions,thishasalreadybeenproposedbySigmarGabriel,Merkelscoalitionpartnerandeconomyminister.The
EUssanctionsregimecomesupforrenewalinJanuary2016countrieslikeHungary,Greece,andSlovakiahavealready
expressedtheiropinionthatsanctionsareunproductive.
EvenmoreworrisomeforthefutureofEuropeanliberalpolities,PutinsmovesinSyriawillonlyemboldenthevoicesthatturnto
MoscowasanalternativetoWashingtonandBrussels.Thepopulist,nativist,andanti-EUpoliticalpartiesthathavegainedin
popularityinthepastyearshaveactivelydigestedandrelayedRussianpropagandatotheirfollowings.
PutinsSyriaploywillprovidefueltothosewhohavecriticizedtheconfrontationwithRussiathathasanimatedEuropean
chancelleriessincetheannexationofCrimeainMarch2014.RelationswithRussia,aswellasPutinspolarizingpersona,have
increasinglybecomeadomesticpoliticalissueinmanyEuropeancountries.LeaderslikeBritainsNigelFarageorFrancesMarine
LePenhavelongcalledforanalliancewithPutinagainstIslamicterrorism.Putinhasgleefullyeggedallthison,arguingthatEurope
standsfornothingbutnihilismanddecadenceandthatitsnationalvaluesandsovereigntyarebeingundermined.InaEurope
wrackedbyself-doubt,thismessageisstartingtoresonate.
AstemptingasitcouldbeforWashingtontooutsourcetheresolutionofexternalcrisestonationslikeRussiathatitseesasmore
directlyaffectedbytheissue,thesedecisionscannotbeviewedinisolationfromoneanother.Afterhisrecentmove,VladimirPutin
seemslikeamorecoherent,reliableplayerthanWashington.ButthecostofAmericanrestraintisexpandingbeyondtheMiddle
EastandmaydamageEuropeanandtransatlanticunityformanyyearstocome.
Subject:VladimirPutiniscelebratinghisdiplomatictriumphinNewYork.ButnotallRussiansarethrilled.
VladimirPutiniscelebratinghisdiplomatictriumphinNewYork.ButnotallRussiansarethrilled.
ByAnnaNemtsova
AnnaNemtsovaisaMoscow-basedcorrespondentforNewsweekandtheDailyBeast,coveringRussiaandtheformerSoviet
states.Sheisalsothewinnerofthe2012PersephoneMielFellowship.
October3,2015
OlgaRomanovasoundeddepressed.AharshcriticofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin,shedjustbeenwatchingTVnews
footagefromNewYorkCitythatshowedPutinandBarackObamaclinkingchampagneglasseslikeapairofoldfriends.
Russiasstate-dominatedmediatrumpetedthemeetingbetweenthetwoleaders,whichcamesoonafterPutinstriumphant
appearanceattheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly,asevidencethatMoscowsrecentdiplomaticisolationhadcometoanend.
HemanagedtomakeadealwiththeWestandgetoutofthedoghouse,Romanovatoldme.Shewasntexactlyhappyabout
thenews.OnethingisabsolutelyclearPutinisforever.Iwillbe75whenhegoesaway,ifIevenlivetoseethatday.
Putinsadmirerswhoare,ofcourse,plentifulinRussiagreetedtheirpresidentsseemingrehabilitationwithenthusiasm.They
sharehisbeliefthatMoscowdeservestheWestsrespectforitsprincipledstandinSyria,wherePutinhasvowedtodoanythinghe
cantopropuptheregimeofKremlinallyBasharal-Assad.ButthehappinessofPutinsnationalistbasewasmirroredbythe
despairofRussiasurbanintelligentsia,thesamepeoplewhoparticipatedinhugepublicdemonstrationsagainstPutinsgovernment
in2011and2013.TheyrealsothepeoplewhomakeupthecoreaudienceofradiostationEkhoMoskvy.Whenthestation
polleditslistenersrightafterPutinstriptotheUnitedStates,62percentofthemconcludedthatthepresident,buoyedupbyhis
latestforeignpolicysuccesses,wouldnowbeabletostayinofficeaslongasheliked.
ThesedaysRomanovaandhercolleaguesspendmuchoftheirtimewonderingwhichofthecountrysfewremainingliberal
politicianswillbethenexttofaceanattackfromthegovernment.OnenamecurrentlybruitedaboutisthatofAnatolyChubais,the
headoftheRussianNanotechnologyCorporation,astate-ownedcompany.Inthe1990s,ChubaishadbeenPresidentYeltsins
chiefofstaffandhisfirstdeputyprimeminister,postsheusedtofocusoneconomicreformsandprivatization.AfterPutinsriseto
power,ChubaiswasoneofthefewYeltsinconfidantestoretainahighpositioninthenewpoliticalestablishment.Butsome
Russianliberalsfearthatevensuchaformerlypowerfulmanmightnowbevulnerable.
AnybodyfromarichMoscowbusinessmantoaSyrianrefugeewithoutanypaperworkcanfallvictimtoinjusticeandgoto
jailtoday,saidhumanrightsactivistSvetlanaGannushkina.Thestateinstitutionsdontfunction.Thecourtsystemfailsto
implementlaws.Andherworriesarentjustabouthumanrights.Assheseesit,Russiasgovernmentisnolongercapableof
safeguardingthenationalinterest.
Forher,thenewsthatRussianwarplaneshadbegunbombingrebeltargetsinSyriaapparentlykillingciviliansalongtheway
presagedendlessdisaster,anew,Afghanistan-likeMiddleEasternquagmire.Todaysleadershipisdoingeverythingtobreak
Russiaintopieces,shesaid.
Between2002and2012,Gannushkina,theleaderandco-founderofacivicorganizationthatprovidesaidtorefugees,wasa
memberofthePresidentialCouncilfortheDevelopmentofCivilSocietyandHumanRightsfirstunderPutin,andthenunderhis
(temporary)successor,DmitryMedvedev.RecentlyGannushkinasorganization,whichhasprovidedlegalsupporttothousandsof
refugeesfromUkraineandtheMiddleEast,wasdeclaredtobeaforeignagentunderaharshnew2012lawaimedatrestricting
westernassistancetoRussianorganizationsthatworkinsensitiveareas.Thatclassificationdeprivedhergroup,theCivic
AssistanceCommittee,ofmostofitsvitalgrantsfromforeignorganizations.Sincethen,Gannushkinaandhercolleagueshave
struggledtohelptheircharges,attimesevencontributingtheirownmoney.
TheCivicAssistanceCommitteeisjustoneof94organizationsthathavebeendeclaredforeignagentsbytheRussianMinistryof
Justiceoverthepastthreeyears.OnThursday,theoldestmemberofPutinshumanrightscouncil,88-year-oldactivistand
historianLyudmilaAlekseyeva,askedthejet-laggedPutintoexplaintothecouncilwhybusinessesareappreciatedforbringing
investmentstoRussia,whilenon-profitswhouseWesternmoneytohelpRussiancitizensaredeemedworthyofpersecution.Putin
didnotrespond.
Theliberalsdespairisplain.ButPutinstriumphinNewYorkalsoleftsomeotherRussiansconfused.
CommentingontheRussianleadersimageattheU.N.,theindependentRussianTVchannelDozhdtookasarcastictone,
describingPutinscharmoffensiveasawell-rehearsedballetstagedbytheKremlin.Inthefirstact,Putinopenedanewlyrestored
mosqueinMoscowthecitysbiggesttogetherwithhisallies,TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogan,Palestinianleader
MahmoudAbbas,andKaszakhstaniPresidentNursultanNazarbayev.ThesecondacttookplaceinNewYork,wherePutinis
tryingtosay[thatheis]thenew,peacefulleaderofanewanti-HitlercoalitionIamlegitimateandAssadislegitimate,as
Rainseditor-in-chiefMikhailZygarputitsarcastically.
DumadeputyRobertSchlegel,amemberoftherulingUnitedRussiaparty,admittedfeelingabitbewilderedaboutPutinsmeeting
withObamaanditsSyrianaftermath.Icannotdescribeonefeelingitwasawiderangeofmixedemotions.Thenegotiationsgave
usaweakhopethatthetensioninthesituation[Russiasisolation]wouldbereleased,butrightafterthatweheartheU.S.blaming
Russiaforshellingpeacefulcitiesonterritorywheretherearenopeacefulcities,hesaidinaninterviewonThursday.Schlegel
addedthathewasdeeplydisgustedtoseehowthecountriesheblamedformakingamessintheMiddleEastaretreating
Russia.
AmongthosetakenabackbytheimagesofanewRussian-Americanrapprochementweremembersoftheseparatistmilitiasin
easternUkraine.UntilhesawthepicturesofPutinandObamaactingfriendly,peoplelikeSergei,amemberofarebelmilitiain
Sloviansk,sawtheU.S.asanenemy,alongwithUkraine.Myworstexpectationsbecameareality,hetoldmeonthephone.I
alwaysthoughtthattheydflushusdownthetoilet,butIcouldntimaginethatPutinandObamawouldbecomefriendsafterour
war,afterallthatslaughter,afterwevealllostsomanyfriends.
AsforPutinsmosthardcoreRussiansupporters?SomepreferredtoignorethePutin-Obamacourtship,undertheassumptionthat
itwontlastverylong.DeputyPrimeMinisterDmitryRogozindidnotdeigntotweetanyoftheKremlinsimagesofthetwo
leadersshakinghands.YuriKrupnov,anadviserforPutinssecurityhawks,expressedambivalence,sayingthattheastonishing
imagesfromNewYorkcouldmeananything.Onethinghewassureof,though:thattheattentiontointernationalcriseswilldistract
thepublicfromtheirdomesticconcerns:Allthedomesticissuesandcontradictionsthatfueltheprotestmovementwillbepushed
downonthelistofpriorities,hesaid.Andthat,perhaps,wasPutinsgoalallalong.
Subject:Putin'sending150,000soldierstoSyria'toWIPEOUTevilIslamicState'[GoodLuck.....Vlad!!!
Putin'sending150,000soldierstoSyriatoWIPEOUTevilIslamicState'
VLADIMIRPutinispreparingtosend150,000troopstoSyriainabidtowipe
outtheevilIslamicStateonceandforall.
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/468212/Putin-ISIS-Islamic-State-
Syria-Raqqa-troops-soldiers-air-strike-jets-military
ByScottCampbell/Published4thOctober2015
THEEND:ISIScouldnowfaceeliminationfromhundredsofthousandsof
Russiantroops
Aninsiderrevealed:"ItisveryclearthatRussiawantstosweepupthe
westofthecountry,takingRaqqaandalltheoilandgasresourcesaround
Palmyra.
"ThisisfastbecomingaracetoRaqqa-tosecuretheoilfieldstheyneed
tocleansetheregionofinsurgents,andtheIScapitalisvitaltodo
that."
ItcomesadayafterRussianjetsobliteratednineISISoutpostsinjust24
hoursusingbunker-bustingbombs.
Sovietjetspoundedterroristtargetsandblewupacommandcentre,
potentiallykillingdozensoffighters.
Confirmingthesuccessfulraids,AndreiKartapolovfromtheRussianarmy
vowedtorampupthepressure,saying:"Wewillnotonlycontinuestrikes...
Wewillalsoincreasetheirintensity."
AndRussianDefenceMinistryspokesmanIgorKonashenkovsaid:"Overthepast
24hours,SukhoiSu-34andSu-24Mfighterjetshaveperformed20sortiesand
hitnineIslamicStateinstallations.
"Abunker-bustingBETAB-500airbombdroppedfromaSukhoiSu-34bombernear
Raqqahaseliminatedthecommandpostofoneoftheterrorgroups,together
withanundergroundstoragefacilityforexplosivesandmunitions.
"Theseandotherhighlyexactmeansofattackinrecentdayshavebeenused
totargetobjectsofIslamicStateterrorists:commandposts,storesof
weaponsandoilproducts,workshopswhereweaponsofsuicidebombersare
made."
REUTERS
WIPEOUT:Russiasaidithadcarriedout20airstrikesinjust24hours
DavidCameroninitiallygavetheRussianairstrikesacautiouswelcomeand
saidtheUKwouldneedtolook"verycarefully"atPutin'soperations.
Butyesterdayhewarnedtheinterventionismakingthesituationworseand
helpingtosupportthe"butcher"presidentBasharAssad.
SeperatelyMrCameronpledgedto"beefup"theSASanddoublethenumberof
BritishdronestocombatISISmilitantsinaninterviewaheadoftoday's
Conservativeconference.
ThePrimeMinistersaidinvestmentinspecialforcesandsurveillancewas
essentialtomeetingtheterroristthreatfacingtheUK.
HerevealedthattheUKwillbuyafleetof20newProtectordronescapable
oftargetingISextremistsinIraqandSyria.

Subject:morePUTINbacklash>Al-QaedawarnRussian'invaders'thatSyriawillbecometheir'GRAVEYARD'
Al-QaedawarnRussian'invaders'thatSyriawillbecometheir'GRAVEYARD'
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/609806/Al-Qaeda-Russian-Syria-warning-Islamic-State
AL-QAEDAhasissuedachillingwarningtoRussianforcesastheycontinuetolaunchairstrikesinSyriaasIslamistsoffer
bountiesoncapturedsoldiers.
Now,Jabhatal-Nusra,aSyrianmilitancyloyaltoal-Qaeda,claimthatRussia'smilitaryinvolvementamountstoaninvasion,one
theywillusetorecruitnewmembers.
TheterrorgroupwanttoevokememoriesofthefailedSovietinvasionofAfghanistantogalvanisesupport.
ModeraterebelsbackedbyWesternpowershavewarnedthatRussia'sactionwillonlyservetoradicaliseordinarySyrians.
AbuYassinal-Homsi,amemberofthemoderateAhraral-Shamrebelgroup,saidthatcivilianskilledinairstrikeswillpushlocals
tothemilitants.
HetoldtheTelegraph:TheygavepeoplenochoicebuttojointhemostpowerfulforcetofighttheRussianinvasion.
"WehavelostmentoNusraandIknowotherswhowanttogo.
ThefailedSovietinvasioninAfghanistanhasleftabittertastewithmanyIslamists
Also,inanonlineclipuploadedthisweek,AbdullahAl-Muhaisini,aNusrafighter,said:"OhRussianpeople,didyouforgetthe
Afghanquagmire?
"Doyouwanttoenteranewquagmire?ThepeopleoftheLevantwillstanduptoyou.
"RussiaremainsacountrywhosewingswerecutoffinthelandoftheAfghans.
"TodayitenteredSyria,soSyriawillbecomeagraveyardforinvaders."
ModerateSyrianrebelshavewarnedPutinhisplanwillbackfire
InrecentweeksatleasttworadicalIslamistgroupsbasedinformerSovietstates-UzbekistanandChechnya-have
pledgedsupporttoAl-Qaeda.
OnThursday,aprominentspiritualleaderandfinancierofthetheNusraFrontissuedabountyworthmorethan10,000forthe
captureofaRussiansoldierinSyria.
AbuHassanal-Kuwaitideclared:"TotheheroicMujahideenbrothers,aprizeofamillion[Syrianpounds]toanyonewhotakes
hostageaRussiansoldier."
LaithAlkhouri,directorofresearchandanalysisattheinternetmonitoringgroupFlashpointIntel,saidthatthebounty"wasmeant
asaPRcampaigntoattractmorejihadists".
Hesaid:"ThemotivationtocaptureaRussiansoldierisnotnecessarilygoingtobethefinancialreward.
"It'snotamassiveamountofmoney,butthatkindofmoneycanreallyfacilitatethemovementandoperationsforalotofsoldiers
anditactuallyissignificantforSyriansthemselves."
"FortheNusraFront,Russia'sinterventionisagoodopportunitytobolsteritsrecruitmentandtostartunifyingthemosaicof
foreignfightersthatarefightingtheregime.
"Thefactthatal-Qaeda,viaitsofficialbranchinSyria,isonceagainfightingRussianforces,decadesaftertheUSSRwasdefeated
inAfghanistan,isalsoapowerfulimagethatcouldservetounifyjihadistgroupsinnorthernSyria.
"NusrawillmostcertainlytrytousethisimageandanyoperationagainstRussianforcesincludingthekidnappingofaRussian
soldiertogainmomentuminthedeadlycompetitionwithIslamicState[ISIS]."
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 09/30/201502:43:32PM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes30September2015
Attachments: IN30Sept15.doc
InternetNotes30September2015
ItslikelythatIwontgetanynotesouttomorrow.NextnoteswillprobablybeonFriday.
Patrioticmobilization:IsthatwhattheKremlinreallywants?
EternalRussia(SacredvlastPatrimonialandclanRussia)
http://www.polit.ru/article/2015/09/28/neototalitarianism/
Comment:Pastukhovusuallyhassomeinterestingthingstosay.Inthisbit,Ithinkheisoffthemarkincallingthe
PutinregimeNeo-totalitarian.
Pastukhovclaimsthattheregimeisreviving(itsanunfinishedprocess)totalitarianmethodsofthepast,movingbeyond
authoritarianrule(whichhesaysismarkedbysocietyspassivityandsilentgo-along-to-get-alongmood)toaneo-totalitarian
system.True,theneosystemisweakatthispointcomparedtotheoldSovietsystem,butitdoesinvolveideology(Krym
nash!)andtheactiveparticipationofthepeople.PastukhovthinksthateventuallytheKremlinwillfollowthatpathtoitslogical
end,thatis,toneo-terrorandGulags.Hedoesntthinkthateconomichardshipwillspurpopularunrest.
Comment:IthinkPastukhovismistakingwhatIvecalledthepatrioticwaveforpatrioticmobilization,whichIdo
notthinkhastakenplace(Seethenotesfrom3and13July,and13August).*Theideologyhespeaksofishalf
formednationalpride,greatpowernessandisnotthekindofhardideologyfoundintotalitarianregimesofthe
past,ideologiesaimedattransformingsocietyandhumanityitself.AsIvenotedbefore,withoutthekindof
mobilizationPastukhovspeaksof,absentanall-encompassingideologicaldrive,andconsideringthecountrys
demographicsaswell,Idontthinkamassmovementregimeormassterrorarepossible.Whatsmore,thelastthing
theregimewantsisamobilizedpopulation,whichtheKremlinviewsasdangerous.Russiatodayisanauthoritarian
statewithquasi-democraticinstitutions.Itisalowtrust,clantypesystem,somethingprettycommonintheworld.
PastukhovthentakesupthePutin-MedvedevrelationshipYes,PutinspoliciestoughenedupafterhisreturntotheKremlinin
2012butPastukhovthinksitactuallywentlikethis:Putinandhiscircledecidedthatpoliciesneededtobetougher,thendecided
thatVVPshouldreturntotheKremlin.TheplanhadoriginallybeenforMedvedevtoservetwoterms,butitbecamenecessaryto
curtailMedvedevsunsuccessfuldemocraticproject.Medvedevsliberalismwasincompatiblewithmaintainingtheeconomic
commandingheightsinthehandsofthepeoplewhostrengthentheirpositionsintheKremlinin2007-2008.So,nosecondterm
forMedvedev.
AdemocraticRussiaistheoreticallypossible,saysPastukhov,butthatsalongterm,gradualprocesswithmanytransitional
periods.Amovetopreventanotherrokirovkaorapresident-for-lifewouldlikelycomesoonerthanjudicialreformandreal
federalism.Russiansocietyisverysickanditwouldtakealongtimetoriditselfoftotalitarianinfluences.Pastukhovthinksthat
theendofthePutinerawillcomeintwostages,firstthroughPutinsreplacementbysomeonewhorepudiatesVVPandhis
understandings,thoughonlybyobservingadifferentsetofunderstandings.Thesecondstagewillcomewhenthatsuccessoris
replacedbysomeonewhodoesnotlivebyunderstandings.
Comment:Goodluck.AsPastukhovsays,Russiansocietyissick.Itsthatsocietythatwillhavetobehealedand
thatsnotsomethingthatachangeofpoliticalleadershipalonecantakecareof,inmyview.
*MybitonPatrioticmobilizationandrelatedmattersfromthe3Julynotes:
[Patrioticmobilization:IsthatwhattheKremlinreallywants?
Comment:TherehasbeenmuchtalkofpatrioticmobilizationinRussia.Aftersomediscussionwithanattentivereader,andreadingback
oversomematerialfromrecentnotes,Ithinkthata)ageneralmobilizationhasnot,infact,takenplaceb)thattheKremlindoesnotwant
genuinemobilization,butsomethingelseandc)thatamobilizedpopulationwouldbepotentiallydangerousandtheKremlinknowsthis.
First,whatdowemeanbymobilization?Tomymind,amobilizedpopulationisonethatisreadytotakeaction,participateinralliesor
volunteers,selforganizes,oriscapableofselforganizing,anddoesmorethanshowingupbythebusloadtovoteinanorganizedfashionsetin
motionbysuperiors.Thesegmentofthepopulationthathasstoodoutinshowingthatitcanbemobilizedinthatsenseisthenon-systemic
opposition,whichtheKremlinseesasathreat.Anykindofspontaneousoruncontrolled(byvlast)massactionisviewedasathreatbythe
KremlinandhastraditionallybeenseenassuchinRussia.Whatsomemayviewasorganizedactionbycitizens,theKremlinsees,atleast
potentially,asabuntandIthinktheRussianelitehaveadeepseatedfearofthenarod,whichtheythinkofaslargelyamob.Ithinkthe
Kremlin(inthebroadsenseoftherulingclansrepresentedinvlast)isinstinctivelywaryofanactivepopulation,evenifthePresidential
Administrationisorganizingaparticularactionitcouldgetoutofhand,afterall,orthemobcouldgetideas.

IthinktheKremlinseesmobilizationasameansofchannelingemotionsandfeelings,aswiththeimmortalregiment(seethe11May
notes),inawaythatissafefortheregimeandtendstoplaydowncontradictionsinthepopulationandbetweenthepopulationandvlast(the
immortalregimentrallieswereadisplayofunitythatcutacrossclassandideologicallines,inthatwayexpressingtheRussianidealsofunity
andsobornost).Myreadernoted,forinstance,thattheKremlinhasnotevendonemuchinthewayoforganizingmassdemonstrationsin
favoroftheseparatists.Weoccasionallyseemass,controlled,orchestrateddemonstrationsbackedbytheKremlinadministration(likethe
counterdemonstrationsduringtheprotestwave),butthosearenotfrequenteventsandwhentheydotakeplace,ofteninvolvepayingorgiving
someotherincentivetoparticipants.ApointworthrememberingisthatoursourceshavemaintainedthatonereasontheKremlinwantstoshift
thedateoftheDumaelectionsistolowerturnout(See,forinstance,the21Maynotes).Asmyreaderputit,whenStrelkovcomplainedaboutnot
enoughpeopleshowinguptofightinEasternUkraine,hesaidalotofthepeoplewereathome,sittingonthecouchanddrinkingbeerthisis
theidealvoterintheKremlinsview,onewhodoesnotshowupunlessthebuscomesaroundtomobilizethem.Inshort,themassoftheRussian
populationisgenerallyapatheticandpassiveandvlastlikesitthatway(Therehave,however,beenclaimsthatsocialbondsareincreasingin
RussiaIexpressedseriousdoubtsaboutthatinthe18Junenotes).
WehaveseenplentyofpollssuggestingthatthepopulationsupportstheannexationofCrimea,viewstheWestwithsuspicion(seethe29June
notes,forexample),andthelike.AnemotionorsenseofpassivesupportisdifferentfrommobilizationinthesenseImean.Itwouldbebetterto
refertosuchpollingsupportasapatrioticwave,notmobilization.ThereisastrangedualityaboutvlaststhinkingtakeEasternUkraine:
Ithinkalotofthepatrioticbackersofsupportingthemini-civilwartherehopedforandexpectedmorevolunteersthanactuallyshowed.We
knowthatthecenterhasbeenusingoftenreluctantactivedutyservicepersonnelonleavetobolstertheseparatistforces,making
promisestothemthatithasapparentlynotkeptandtryingtohidewhatisgoingonfromthepopulation.Thisindicatesthatnomassmobilization
isactuallytakingplacetheKremliniswellawarethatthemassesmaysupportitspoliciespassively(inpolls,forinstance),butisnotreadyto
fightforthosepolicies.Indeed,thepassivemasseshaveasortofwearinessaboutthemandacharacteristicinward,practicalbentinrecent
pollsonwhattherespondentsaremostconcernedabout,theybringupmaterialwellbeing,education,healthcare,pensions,andthelike,even
whiletellingthepollsterstheysupportPutinspolicies.AndIvenotedwhatIllarionovdescribedasadeclineinimperialthinking,whilea
recentLevadapollhas59%ofrespondentsindicatingthattheythinkdomesticproblemsaremoreimportantthanexternalthreats(Seethe29
Junenotes).
WhattheKremlinhasbeendoinginEasternUkraineisinstructive:Wehavereadthatfieldcommandersandleaderstherewhocantbe
managedhavebeenforcedtoleave(likeStrelkov)orevenassassinated(likeMozgovoySeethe2Junenotes,forexample).Andtimeand
again,wehaveseenindicationsthattheKremlinviewsthenationalistsandfightersinUkraine(who,readerswillrecall,areonbothsidesofthe
conflict)whocouldreturnandmaketroubleasaseriousthreat.Therehavebeencrackdownsonnationalistgroups(seethe30Marchnotes,for
example)andthereportsweseeofdisturbancesandcrimesrelatedtoreturningfighters(readmobilizedRussians)areobviouslyalarmingto
vlast(Seethe17and26Junenotes).
Butthatsnotallthepro-regime,mobilizednationalist/imperialistfactionisalsoapotentialthreat,highlightingthedangersofhowpatriotic
mobilizationcouldgetoutofhand.IhaveinmindtheNemtsovmurder,carriedoutbyasegmentofPastukhovsKremlinperiphery(Kadyrov
andtheSeverbattalionSeethe3Marchnotes)with,Ithink,somehelpfromotherhardlineelementsinthespecialservices.TheNemtsov
killingwasanexampleoftheperipheryslippingtheleash,puttingPutininadifficultposition,betweenKadyrovandthefederalsilovikywho
wantedtousethekillingasapretexttogoaftertheChechenwarlord.Thepotentialforrealtroublewasevident.
Onarelatednote,IvealreadydealtwithPutinsapprovalrating(89%inthelatestLevadapolls)andwhatpopularitymeansinRussia.Ithink
thatmostRussiansdonotconsiderpoliticstobeanyoftheirbusinessandanapprovalratingdoesnotnecessarilyreflectawillingnesstogoto
thewallforthenoalternativesleader.Again,IthinktheArutunyanbookandmycommentsonitfromlastfallarehelpful.
Fromthe5November2015notes:
[EternalRussia(SacredvlastPatrimonialandclanRussia)
AnarticlebyMariaSnegovayafromlastJune
http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/news/27725001/rossiya-kotoruyu-myne-teryali#ixzz34mD7Ituk
SnegovayapointsoutthecontinuitybetweentheoldregimeandtheSovietUnion,withelementsoffeudalism(withthestatesteppinginasthe
Lordoveravastfiefdomandcontrollingpropertyandlabor),theCzarorpersonalizedpowertransformedintothecultofpersonalitymost
prominentlydevelopedunderStalin,andaparallelbetweenthereligiousiconsadoringthetraditionalRussiankrasniyugolreplacedbyaLenin
iconicdisplay.Sheallowsthatadistortedversionofthelessattractiveaspectsoftheoldregimewasrampedupseveralordersofmagnitude,while
thebetteraspectsofRussiancultureweredegraded,underSovietrule.
Forbes(again)namesPutinthemostpowerfulpersonintheworld:http://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinehoward/2014/11/05/putin-vs-obama-the-
worlds-most-powerful-people-2014/
Comment:Ivebeenthinkingovertheissueofcontinuitylately.InmybookTheRussianQuestionImoreorlessagreedwithSnegovayathat,
forexample,RussiancommunalismwhenpressedintotheCommunistmachinecameoutasSovietcollectivism(theanthill,notthevillage
commune).Different,yetthesame.AutocracyasStalinismfosteredunlimited,centralizedpowertoahigherdegreethanundertheoldregime,
andtogetherwithCommunistmaterialismandmodernweaponsandtechnologies,madetheRedCzaramoreterrible,farreachingautocrat
(GenghisKhanwithatelegraph)thancouldhaveexistedbeforethe20t hcentury.YetwhatwehadwasSovietRussia,notsomethingaltogether
different,butRussiasqueezedthroughthemoldofSovietmodernization.Idontthinkthecountryhaseverrecoveredfromthat.Thefatalismof
Russiawasmagnified,familystructureunderminedseverely,intermediateinstitutions,howeverfrail,destroyed.Societywasfragmentedor
atomizedandsocialtrustwasabsent.Thedemographicdeclineis,inmyview,oneproductoftheSovietmodernizationexperiment.
Revolution,massterror,catastrophicwar,atheism

ButsomethingsthathavemadeRussiaRussiawereandareverypersistent.TheRussianfabrichassomepowerfulconnectivethreadsthat
arestrongerthanreformerswanttoimagine,thoughtheymaybehardtoexplain.Theyhavetobeperceivedorexperienced.Ivebeenbringing
someofthemupinthenotesrecentlybecauseIthinkwealltendtoforgetthis,lookingatRussiaasanotherproblemthatcanberationalizedand
subjectedtotransformativepositivelaw,withlittleattentiontocontextorthefabricofRussianlife.
OneofthosethreadsIveteasedoutandcommentedonrecentlyisBelkovskiystakeonthesacrednatureofRussianvlast(Seethe28
Octobernotes,forexample).BelkovskiyhasevenproposedanelectedmonarchyvlastinRussiahastobemonarchalandpersonified,says
Belkovskiy.
Withthatinmind,IpickedupanexcellentbookthispastweekendthatIthinkisworthalook,notbecauseitsaysanythingnew,butbecauseof
howtheauthor,AnnaArutunyan,weavesherobservationstogether,applyingthemtoconcreteeventsandepisodes.ThebookisThePutin
Mystique,whichisaquitemisleadingtitlesincethebookisnotreallyaboutPutin,but,asthesubtitleputsitRussiaspowercult.
ArutunyanfocusesfirstonthesacrednatureofvlastandtheleaderinparticularintheRussianmind.Sherecountsthestoryofthejournalist
whointerviewedPutinand,whenaskingabouttheanticsofPussyRiot,couldnotbringhimselftosaythegroupsnameespeciallytheRussian
equivalent,whichismorevulgarandoutrightobscenethantheEnglishnameinPutinspresence.PutinbeingPutinheproddedthe(English)
journalist:Canyousayit?AndthereplywasIcantsayitfrontofyou.AsimilarepisodetookplacewithaRussianjournalist.Arutunyan
makesherpointbytellingthestoryofCzarNicholasIsencounterwiththepoetAleksandrPolezhayevin1836theCzarwasintentonforcing
Polezhayevtoreciteavulgarpoemhehadwritten:Icant,saidPolezhayev.ButtheCzarforcedhimtoread.NicholasthenkissedPolezhayev,
whospenttherestofhislifeinthearmy.
BelkovskiyhasitthatfortheRussianpeople,alegitimaterulermusthavethemystiqueofsacrednessamandatetorulethatprecedeslaw
andArutunyan,ofcourse,tracesthisbacktoBzyantiumssymphonybetweenchurchandstate.Powerliterallywasfromonhighand
followingthefallofConstantinople,RussiatookuponitselfthemantleoftheThirdRome,therulersthepersonificationofthemeldingof
temporalandsacredpower.(IwonderhowshewouldweaveintheresidueoftheTatar/Mongolyoke?)
Afewpointssheemphasizes:
First,thatthepeopleseetheCzarasfaraway,distant,ahopefullybenevolentbeingwhoisabovethelaw,notwithinitorofit,andtheydonot
seethemselvesasnecessarilyresponsibleorinanywayconcernedwithhowtheCzarrulesatleastinthingsthatdonotdirectlyhavean
impactonthemselves.MostpeopledisapprovedofPussyRiot,thoughthesentencesmetedoutmayhavebeentooharshbutthat,theytell
Arutunyan,isnoneoftheirbusiness(Thepassivityandapathywesooftennote).
Second,thatasinancientmyths,thecountryisblessed(orpunished)accordingtothecharacterandactionsoftherulertherulermaintainsa
sacredaurasolongasthepeopleperceiveofthatrulerasactinginwaythatdoesnotbringondisaster(evennaturaldisasterArutunyan
notesthatsuppressingstoriesofnaturaldisastersdidnotoriginateintheSovietperiod).Thatdoesnotmeanthatallmustalwaysberightwith
theworldevenwhentherulerisperceivedasatleasttrying(to,say,overcomethewickedboyarsonbehalfofthenarod),thenthatruleris
legitimate.Putinpassesthattestformost.
Third,thepeoplethemselveshaveasenseofhelplessnessinanunpredictableworldtheyhavenocontrolover,aworldwhereeachlocalbossisa
rulerastheCzarisovertherealm,butwhopresidesoveradysfunctionalsystemthus,theappealstoahigherpowerwhenallelsefailsand
theCzarsuseofextra-legalpowertomakethingsright(Thatis,manualcontroltheantidoteforalackofpersonalresponsibilityor
accountabilityandweakinstitutionsArutunyanusesthestoryofthemono-cityPikalevoandPutinsinterventiontoillustratethishishigh
pointwashumiliatingDeripaska,forcinghim[atleastitappearedthatway,thetruthbeingmorecomplicatedPutinwasquiteawareofwhatpart
hewasplaying]tosignacontractandthentellinghimgivememypenback:thatdemonstrationofpowerandwoebetotheCzarwho
cannotshowsuchpowerwasatleastasimportantasgettingtheplantsatPikalevorunningagain).Thus,Putinsuccessfullyplaystheroleof
thebenevolentCzarandthesupremearbiter.Justice,notstrictadherencetothelaw,istheCzarspurview.
Andfinally,thepeoplethemselvesarepartnersintheirownexploitation:leaderswhoarepopular,whetheraplantmanagerorapresident,have
beenthoseseenasstrictbutfair,possessingacertainothernessforintheunwrittensystemofrulesandrightsthatgovernworking
relationships,thebosscouldenjoytheprivilegesofhiscasteaslongasheneverneglectedtocarefortheworkers(Somethinglikemy
commentsonLuzhkovon3November).Vlastatalllevelsisformostpeopleaforcethathadanunwritten,God-givenrighttoexploitthemin
exchangeforbringingordertotheirlives.SowhenwesayPutinispopularornotethathisratingsarehigh,thatdoesnotnecessarily
indicateadorationfororevenalikingoftheCzar,but,rather,anacceptancethatheiseffectivelyplayinghisrole.Whenthepeoplereachthe
pointofexhaustionorfrustrationandvlast(atwhateverlevel)hasbeende-sacralized(andseenasnotplayingthearbiterrole),thenwehave
thebunt,aburstofrevolt,oftenviolent.Suchburstsofenergyareusuallyfollowedbyareturntoapathy,orrather,asenseofresignation
(andthisisnotanattributeofthenarod,thebroadmasses,alone,butonewehaveseeninthecaseofthecreativeclassaswell).
Arutunyan,likesomanyothersbeforeher,describestheRussiansystemaspatrimonial,paternalistic,andfeudal,(whilenotentirely
accurate,theemphasisisonpersonalrelationshipsloyaltytopersons).Andshe,againnotunlikemanyotherobservers,backsuptoIvanthe
TerriblesdivisionofRussianlandsintooprichnina(landsofthesovereign)andzemshchina(belongingtothearistocracy)andthecreationof
hisoprichniki,whocarriedoutwhatwenowcallare-divisionofproperty,inexplainingthateverythinginfactbelongstothesovereignorthe
state:thus,theconnectionsbetweenpropertyandpower.Thesystemisoneofinformal,extralegalunderstandingsamongtheplayers(the
Czaratwhateverlevelandvassals)andtheirclans.Endemiccorruptiongrewfromtheimperialcentersapprovalofkormlenie,the
empiresbureaucracylivingoffthelandbyboostingtheirlowpaywithbribes(soRussiaacceptedthenotionthatabureaucratwhostealsor
acceptsbribeswithinthelimitsacceptabletoaparticularpostisnotdoinganyharm).Thelordofaparticularnetworkofvassals,however,
isasdependentonthemastheyareonthelordortheultimateboss,theCzar,sincethelordmustdeliverthegoodsproperty/thefeed
troughinexchangeforloyalty.Buteachimperialadministrativeunitisdistantfromthelordshigherupthefoodchain,operatingassemi-
autonomousfiefdoms.Sowehavetheparadoxofapowerverticaloverlayingavastpatchworkoffiefdomsthatdonotalwaysconformtothe
centerswishes,thoughthewholepatchworkdependsontheperceptionofthemysteriouspoweroftheCzarorthemajestyofthestate.There
arelimitsonPutinspower.
Putin,however,unliketheCzarsofthePast,ortheGeneralSecretariesoftheSovietperiod,evenallowingforradioandTVcoveragefromthe
30son,isnotsodistantfromthepeopleastheCzarsorStalinwere.Inmyview,hedoesnotquiteseemtoliveinacloudoronamountaintop,
descendingfromOlympustoaidthenarod.HeisafamiliarfiguretotheRussianpopulationinawaythatmostpastrulerswerenot,Ithink.21st
centurymediacoveragemeansthatPutinisunderconstantscrutinythesacredveneeristhinnerandmorefragileandthereisnotight
commandchainoratmosphereofterrorthatcouldcompelevenhisoprichnikitoenforcemassrepressionorfollowhiseverydirective.Putins
marginforerror,whileconsiderable,isnotsogreatde-sacralizationisamuchmoreeverpresentthreat,IthinkandtheKremlinhasfeared
abuntforsometime.
AsIvewrittenmanytimesbefore,legitimacyismajorproblemforthepost-Communistregimeforallthesacrednatureofvlastandthe
mysteriousauraofthestate,Putinissubjecttotheelectoralprocessandhisplayingtherolesofprotector,provider,benevolentstronghand,
andsymbolasnationalleaderaretemperedbythenecessityofatleastsomecompliancewithdemocraticprocedures.Theprotestwaveof
2011-2012wasprecededbyaneconomiccrisisthatdisappointeduncharacteristicallyraisedpopularexpectationsandtherewereplentyofsigns
thatthosewhowantedasecondMedvedevtermweredoingallthattheycouldtode-sacralizePutinsimage.Intheend,Putinsustainedhimself
therewasnooneamongtheeliteswhoappearedcredibleaspotentiallyreplacinghimintherolesPutinhadmastered,particularlythatofelite
mediator(balancingtheclans)orinhisCzarpersona.
IvewrittenbeforethatPutin,unlikeGorbachevorYeltsin,has,inhisway,delivered.HehasdeliveredinplayingtheCzarrole(andgainingthe
regimelegitimacy)andaselitemediator.Hehasbeenabletosurviveandsustainhisauraasnationalleader.Therearethosewhowanthim
outsoonerratherthanlater,butPutinhasbolsteredhiscredentialsasCzar/nationalleaderthroughtheUkrainecrisisandespeciallythe
annexationofCrimea.UnlikeGorbachev,hehasnotworkedtode-sacralizehispositionorthatofthestateglasnostandperestroika
backfiredbyde-legitimizingtheSovietstateandde-sacralizingGorbachev,whowasultimatelyunabletoplaythegoodCzarroleandanswer
thepleasofthenarodsufferingastheSovieteconomyandpoliticalstructurescollapsed(nationalismintheSovietrepublicsalsoplayedabigrole
inthisitwasaforceIdontthinkGorbacheveverreallyunderstoodorsawcoming).Yeltsinwasunabletoplaythatroleaswellandthoughhe
lookedthepartofapopulistCzar,theSovietcollapse,hiserraticbehavioranddeclininghealth(broughtonbyhisheavydrinking),andthe
failureofthenewregimetobuildalegitimizingmythwithdemocraticlanguageandsymbolsde-sacralizedhimaswell.Hehadtosavehimself
byplacingallhisbetsonPutinitprovedtobeagoodchoiceandPutinwasaveryfortunatebeneficiaryofeconomicgrowthfollowingthe
devaluationof1998combinedwithrisingoilprices.Lackinganeffectivefoundingmyth,thepost-CommunistregimeunderPutinhasfallenback
onfearsofinstabilityandananodynegreatpowernesstobolsteritsclaimstolegitimacy.
(PutincantquitegoallthewayandrejecttheYeltsinperiodoutrightasheisaproductofthatperiodandremainsloyaltothelateYeltsin
personallyifhecouldgothatrouteanddenouncetheperiodoutright,thenafoundingmythisreadilyavailableintheeverpresentplotto
destroyRussia,withYeltsinactingaschieffifthcolumnistandPutinastheheroofrestoration.Itwouldbetheoldstoryofafallfromgrace
andarestorationoftruthandjustice.Butgoingfullboreonthatalreadyextantstorylinewouldgetcomplicatedbytheurgetorenationalizeand
re-privatize[ornot]andrejectdemocracyassuch,whichneitherPutinnorthemajorityofelites,Ithink,wanttododespitetheanti-Western
turn,Idontthinkanyofthemwanttobeleadersofaroguestate,sowegetthehalfwayhousetheyareinnow)
Putinmayhavetalkedofadictatorshipoflawwhenhebecamepresident,buthehasinstinctivelyfallenintothefamiliarrolesofclan
mediatorandnationalleader/Czarwithallthebaggagethatcomeswiththem.Hehassometimessaidthatcorruptionisnotsomethingthat
canbeendedaltogetherandhisbehaviorindicatesthathebelievesthatRussiacannotberuledanyotherwayandthatifhetriestoleavethe
scene,itmaybedisastrousforbothRussiaandhimselfpersonally.
TherewastalkatonepointthatcapitalisminRussiahadfailed,butIdontthinkthatsthebestwaytolookatwhatpost-CommunistRussiawas
andis:RussiaremainsRussiaasitremainedaftertheBolshevikRevolution,thoughonethathasbeencrammedintothecapitalistframework
andhavingmadethattransition,comesoutasweseeittoday.ThisiswhatRussialookslikewithcapitalism,justasStalinandBrezhnev
reflectedwhatRussiawaslikewhenCommunisminpracticewasapplied(thecommunalasmasscollective,forexample).Itsnotprettyinmany
respects,butitsthem.
TheclansystemisnotsomethingthathasbeenimposedonRussiansocietyfromoutsideorabove,butareflectionofwhatRussiaisnow:alow
trust,fragmented,demographicallydecliningpost-imperialstatewithapatrimonialpastinwhichtheweakformalinstitutionsacttomaskthe
actualconstitutionofunderstandingsamongclansmediatedatthetopbyV.V.Putin,whoisthemostimportantplayerinthesystem,but
nodictator.
IthinkofArutunyansdescriptionofRussiaasonethatisveryusefulasafromthetopaxisforunderstandingRussianpoliticsandsociety.If
wehavepatrimonial/sacredvlastRussiaasaverticalaxisexplainingthestate-societyrelationshipfromonhigh,thenIthinkmyclan
descriptionworksasthehorizontalaxis,lookingatRussiafromthegroundup.Thisnexusistheframeworkthatisnecessaryforinterpreting
Russianpolitics,Russianactions,andRussiansociety.Lookingattheclanparadigmalone,wealsohaveaverticalaxisofclan
relationshipsbusinesslinksandbureaucraticpartnershipsamongplayers(vassalsandlords)thatisjustbusinessandmoresubjectto
situationalchanges.Thehorizontalaxisofrelationshipsarecloser,morepersonalclosestfriendsandfamilymembersandtheclans
oftencreatedynastiesthroughmarriages,placementofcloserelatives,andunderstandingsthatarelesscontractualandmorepersonal.
ThetwowaysoflookingatRussiaandexplainingitpolitically,economically,andsociallycomplementeachother,representingthesamesubject
viewedfromdifferentanglesofatheoreticalprism.
Theresnothingoriginalineither,butbytryingtointegratethem,Ithinkwecangetclosertoarealunderstandingofoursubject.Thereisan
eternalRussiathatlivesoninhoweveradistortedordegradedform(weshouldnotforgetthatoldRussiamadecontributionstoourbroad
civilizationinart,music,literature,andsciencethatfewcountriescanboastof),ariddle,aparadox,EuropeanbutnotWestern,spiritualand
poetic,greedyandmaterialistic,asceticandgluttonous,piousandprofane,generousandthuggish,pretentiousandkeenlyselfawareallatthe
sametime.]

Finally,anotherRussianparadox.IveoftenwrittenthattheRussianpoliticalsystemisperpetuallyinastateofapparentinstability.Theclans
arefamouslybattlingoneanother,everyelectionistreatedasacrisis,theregimeisconstantlytryingtobolsteritslegitimacy,andtheCzar
(Putin)hastoconstantlythinkabouthisownpersonalsafety(aswellasthatofhisfamily),makingarrangingagracefulexitandachangeof
powertricky,oneofthemajorreasonsPutinremainspresident,apartfromhisplayingtherolesmentionedabove.
Yet(assomeofoursourceshavementioned)theregimehasreservesofsustainability.Putinhassurvivedmorethanonecrisisinwhichhe
appearedtobehighlyvulnerable(themonetizationcrisis,forexample,thentheprotestwave,andnowaUkraine/economiccrisis).
IthinkthiscanbeexplainedbyanumberoffactorstheRussianpopulationislargelyapatheticandpassive(thereare,asmentionedabove,
occasionalburstsofenergy,thenareturntopassivityorresignation)TheRussianpopulationisagingandshrinkingthenationisless
dynamic,thereislessvitalitytheRussianpopulationstendencytoadapt(and,withafewexceptions,itsgenerallycynicalattitudeandlow
expectations)vlasthasbeenabletoeffectivelymanagedemocracy,andestablishanoalternativespoliticalscenePutinhasplayedhis
assignedrolesasclanmediatorandCzarandtheeliteareverycautious.
Sincethe1993shootout,therehavebeenoccasionswhenthesystemseemedtobeheadedforopenconflictamongitsleadingelements,buteach
time,thepeoplewhomatterhavebackedawayfromthecliff.Itappearedthatthesystemwasinturmoilandanopenconflictcouldhavebrokenout
aftertheNemtsovmurder,forinstance.ButtheoldRussianfearofchaos,ofanarchyplaysintosupportingsustainability.Asnotedanumberof
timesbyyourstruly,Putinhasactedasmediatorinsuchawaythattoplevelelitesaresafe,atleastfromassassination.TheNemtsovmurder
wasnervewrackingforthem,butNemtsovwasnolongeratoptierplayer,therewerenootherkillings,andmembersofthebattlingfactionsdid
notresorttoarrestingoneanother,sothesituationcalmeddown.Andnoonewantstobethefirsttosticktheirneckoutthenseenobody
followingthemoutontowhatturnsouttobeagangplank.
Thereisaproblem(withPutinslengtheningreign,Imean)inthatotherambitiousplayersKudrin,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Rogozinamong
themarebeingblockedfromtheultimateprizeofthepresidency.Theagingofthetoptierplayers(whoremaininplace)alsocreatesa
bottleneckforthosebelowwishingtoclimbtheladder.Thatproblemispartiallychanneledintothecurrentunder-the-carpetstruggleoverthe
fateofthegovernmentSergeyIvanovmaynotbepresidentanytimesoon,buthecouldbepremier,andotherscouldjockeytomoveuptheladder
intoministerialpositions.ItspossiblethatasPutinages,moreresponsibilitycouldbeshiftedtothepremier(assumingPutinfeelshecould
checkthatifneedbe)andtheyoungerplayerscouldfightoverpositionsintheWhiteHouseandKremlinadministration.
Thus,thesystemisapparentlyfragile,andseemstobeconstantlythreatenedbyinstability,yethasproventobesustainable,moresothanmany
thought.IvewrittenpreviouslythatascenarioinwhichPutinisforcedoutispossible,butitwouldtakealottogetthere.Withoutsomesortof
perfectstorm,Putinwillbearoundforawhile.Ithinkheseeshimselfasnationalleaderforlife.]
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-parliament-consider-approving-military-force-abroad-agencies-072043251.html
RussiasaiditlaunchedairstrikesagainstIslamicStateinSyriaonWednesdayafterPresidentVladimirPutinsecuredhisparliament'sunanimous
backingtointervenetopropuptheKremlin'sclosestMiddleEastally.
MoscowgaveWashingtonjustanhour'snoticeofthestrikes,whichsetintrainRussia'sbiggestplayintheregionsincethe1991collapseofthe
SovietUnion,aU.S.officialsaid.
TargetsintheHomsareaappearedtohavebeenstruck,butnotareasheldbyIslamicState,theU.S.officialsaid.
TheRussianDefenseMinistrysaidhoweverthatitsattacksweredirectedatIslamicStatemilitarytargets.
Putinsaidtheonlywaytofight"terrorists"inSyriawastoactpreemptively.Russia'smilitaryinvolvementintheMiddleEastwouldonlyinvolveits
airforceandwouldbetemporary.
TheHomsareaiscrucialtoPresidentBasharal-Assad'scontrolofwesternSyria.InsurgentcontrolofthatareawouldbisecttheAssad-heldwest,
separatingDamascusfromthecoastalcitiesofLatakiaandTartous,whereRussiaoperatesanavalfacility.
AU.S.-ledcoalitionhasalreadybeenbombingIslamicStateinIraqandSyria,butPutinderidedU.S.effortstoendtheSyriawarattheUnited
NationsonMonday,suggestingabroaderandmorecoordinatedcoalitionwasneededtodefeatthemilitants.
"ThemilitaryaimofouroperationswillbeexclusivelytoprovideairsupporttoSyriangovernmentforcesintheirstruggleagainstISIS(Islamic
State),"SergeiIvanov,theKremlin'sChief-of-Staff,saidbeforereportsthatthestrikeshadbegun.
RussiahasbeensteadilydispatchingmoreandmoremilitaryaircrafttoabaseinLatakia,regardedasanAssadstronghold,aftertheSyrian
governmentsufferedaseriesofbattlefieldreverses.
MoscowhasalreadysentmilitaryexpertstoarecentlyestablishedcommandcenterinBaghdadwhichiscoordinatingairstrikesandgroundtroops
inSyria,aRussianofficialtoldReuters.
Ivanov,theKremlin'sChiefofStaff,saidRussia'smissionswouldbelimitedandnotopen-ended.Heprecludedtheuseofgroundtroops.
"Asourpresidenthasalreadysaid,theuseofgroundtroopshasbeenruledout,"saidIvanov.
Russia'sinvolvementinSyriawillbeafurtherchallengeforMoscow,whichisalreadyinterveninginUkraineatatimewhenitsowneconomyis
sufferingfromlowoilpricesandWesternsanctions.
OpinionpollsalsoshowRussianvotershavelittleappetiteforalongcampaign,withpainfulmemoriesoftheSovietUnion's1979-89interventionin
Afghanistan,inwhichthousandsofSoviettroopswerekilled,stillfresh.SeetheLevadapollinginyesterdaysnotes.
ButasRussianrealincomesfallforthefirsttimesincePutincametopower,thespectacleofthecountryflexingitsmilitarymusclesoverseas,could
alsobeausefuldistractionfortheKremlin.
Ivanovsaidtheupperhouseofparliamenthadbackedmilitaryactionby162votestozeroafterAssadhadaskedforRussianmilitaryassistance.
TheSyrianpresidencyconfirmedthatinastatement,sayingAssadhadwrittentoPutinandRussiawasincreasingitsmilitarysupportasadirect
resultofthatappeal.
IvanovsaidRussiawasonlyactingtoprotectitsowninterestsinSyria,whereitmaintainsaSoviet-eranavalfacilityatTartous,itsonlyaccessto
theMediterranean.
"We'retalkingspecificallyaboutSyriaandwearenottalkingaboutachievingforeignpolicygoalsoraboutsatisfyingourambitions...but
exclusivelyaboutthenationalinterestsoftheRussianFederation,"saidIvanov.
Russianmilitaryactionwouldnotbeopen-ended,headded,decliningtosaywhichaircraftwouldbeusedandwhen.
"TheoperationsoftheRussianairforcecannotofcoursegoonindefinitelyandwillbesubjecttoclearlyprescribedtimeframes."
Russia'sdecisiontointerveneinSyriawaspromptedbyapanickyrealizationthattheSyriangovernmentwasbeingturnedoveronthebattlefield,
diplomatsandanalystshavetoldReuters.
WhenitsawseveralmonthsagothatSyriangovernmentforceswereretreatingonseveralfrontsataratethatthreatenedAssad,itsclosestMiddle
Eastally,theKremlinquietlydecidedtodespatchmoremen,weaponryandarmor.
Putin'sspokesmansaidthevotebytheFederationCouncil,Russia'supperhouseofparliament,meantMoscowwouldbepracticallytheonly
countryinSyriatobeconductingoperations"onalegitimatebasis"andattherequestof"thelegitimatepresidentofSyria".
ThelasttimetheRussianparliamentgrantedPutintherighttodeploytroopsabroad,atechnicalrequirementunderRussianlaw,Moscowseized
CrimeafromUkrainelastyear.
Putinneededtogetparliament'sbackingtoensurethatanymilitaryoperationwaslegalunderthetermsoftheRussianconstitution.
ANovayaGazetaarticleontheFederationCouncilapprovingmilitaryactioninSyria:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/70150.htmlThevotewastakeninaclosedsession.Therewasnooppositionandnoone
abstained.NovayaclaimsthattheRussianattacksareinparttargetingoilpipelinesbeingusedbyISISNovayasaysthatthe
militaryhasbeenconsultingwiththeRussianoilsectoronattackingstationsthatpumptheoil(tradedascontraband)throughthe
pipelinesystem
Atasessionwiththegovernmenttoday,PutinagainsaidthatRussiawouldnotgettoodeeplyinvolvedintheconflictinSyria,
supportingtheSyrianarmyfromtheaironly:http://www.newsru.com/russia/30sep2015/syria_3.html
"
",-,,"
"."
",-.
PutinaddedthatRussiashouldcombatterroristsbeforetheyreachedRussianterritory.TherearethousandsfightingwithISISwho
cametotheMiddleEastfromEuropeandRussiaiftheyaresuccessfulinSyria,thentheywillthreatenEuropeandRussia,which
ISIShasalreadydeclaredanenemy.
Meanwhile,KadyrovwassayingthatthousandsofvolunteerswerereadytogotoSyriatofightISISontheground.Kadyrovsaid
itwasapitythatonlyairpowerwasbeingused
RussiareportedlyinformedtheUSandIsraelabouttheplannedairstrikesRBKssourcessaythattheairstrikesaretargeting
ISISpersonnelandinfrastructure,includingmunitionsandfueldepotsBritainsIndependent
(http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/what-s-russia-up-to-in-syria-i-would-wager-theyre-after-something-big-retaking-palmyra-
a6669446.html)reportsthattheRussianaimistohelptheSyrianarmyretakethecityofPalmyra
AnEnglishversionofPutinsremarkstothegovernmentontheairstrikesinSyria:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50401
Wewillstartwithanissuethatwilllikelybethesubjectofmuchdiscussiontoday,namely,myrequesttotheFederationCouncilonusingRussias
ArmedForcesbeyondourcountrysborders.TheFederationCouncilhasexaminedthisrequestandapprovedit.
Syriaistheissuehere.Theonlyrealwaytofightinternationalterrorism(andinternationalterroristgroupsarecreatingchaosinSyria
andtheterritoryofneighboringcountriesrightnow)istotaketheinitiativeandfightanddestroytheterroristsintheterritorytheyhavealready
WeallknowthatthousandsofpeoplefromEuropeancountries,Russia,andthepost-Sovietregionhavejoinedtheranksoftheso-calledIslamic
State,aterroristorganizationthatIwanttostressagainhasnothingtodowithgenuineIslam.Thereisnoneedtobeanexperttorealizethatif
theysucceedinSyria,theywillinevitablyreturntotheirowncountries,andthisincludesRussia.
WeallknowtoothattheIslamicStatelongsincedeclaredourcountryitsenemy.Today,anumberofcountries,includingtheUnitedStates,
AustraliaandFrance,areusingtheirairforcestocarryoutairstrikesagainsttheIslamicStatespositionsinSyria.
Wehavealwaysconsistentlysupportedthefightagainstinternationalterrorism.Atthesametime,webelievethatitmustproceedstrictly
inaccordancewithinternationallaw,inotherwords,onthebasisofUNSecurityCouncilresolutionsorattherequestofthecountryinneed
ofmilitaryassistance.OurpartnersoperationsinSyriahaveneitherofthesethingsastheirbasis,butwenonethelessthinkitpossible
andnecessarytounitetheeffortsofallconcernedcountriesinthefightagainstinternationalterrorismandbasethiscommoneffortontheUN
Charter.
Atthisstage,Iproposethatallcountriesconcerned,inparticularthecountriesintheregion,starttakingpartintheworkoftheinternational
informationandeventuallycoordinationcentreinBagdad.
Theonlyrealwaytofightinternationalterrorismistotaketheinitiativeandfightanddestroytheterroristsintheterritorytheyhavealready
WehaveinformedallofourpartnersaboutRussiasplansandactionsinSyria.Letmerepeat:Russiasinvolvementintheanti-terroristoperations
inSyriaisinaccordancewithinternationallawandbasedontheofficialrequestfromthePresidentoftheSyrianArabRepublic.
IwanttostressthepointthoughthattheconflictinSyriahasdeeprootsandistheresultofmanyfactors.Thisincludesinterstateanddomestic
politicalfactors,andreligiousandinterethnicdifferences,whichhavebeenexacerbatedbyunceremoniousforeigninterventionintheregions
affairs.
Giventhesecircumstances,wenaturallyhavenointentionofgettingdeeplyentangledinthisconflict.Wewillactstrictlyinaccordancewithour
setmission.First,wewillsupporttheSyrianarmyonlyinitslawfulfightagainstterroristgroups.Second,oursupportwillbelimitedtoairstrikes
andwillnotinvolvegroundoperations.Third,oursupportwillhavealimitedtimeframeandwillcontinueonlywhiletheSyrianarmyconductsits
anti-terroristoffensive.
Ourviewisthatafinalandlong-termsolutiontothesituationinSyriaispossibleonlyonthebasisofpoliticalreformanddialoguebetweenall
healthyforcesinthecountry.IknowthatPresidental-Assadknowsthisandisreadyforthisprocess.Wearecountingonhisactiveandflexible
positionandhisreadinesstomakecompromisesforthesakeofhiscountryandpeople.
Russiasinvolvementintheanti-terroristoperationsinSyriaisinaccordancewithinternationallawandbasedontheofficialrequestfrom
thePresidentoftheSyrianArabRepublic
TheRussian:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50401
More.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/index.html
KerrysaidtheU.S.-ledcoalitionhadconducted3,000airstrikesagainstISISandthateffortswoulddramaticallyincrease.
HewarnedthatthefightagainstISISshouldnotbeconfusedwithwithsupportforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.
"Moreover,wehavealsomadeclearthatwewouldhavegraveconcernsshouldRussiastrikeareaswhereISILandalQaedaaffiliated
targetsarenotoperating.StrikesofthatkindwouldquestionRussia'srealintentions--fightingISILorprotectingtheAssadregime,"he
said.
AseniorU.S.defenseofficialtoldCNNthePentagonwas"takenaback"byRussia'sactions."Ourpresidentsjusttalkedaboutsetting
upde-conflictiontalksandnowtheyjustgoaheadanddothis?Theycannotbetrusted."
AsecondU.S.officialsaid,"Thisisnothowmilitaryrelationsareconducted."
Andanother
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-begins-air-strikes-in-syria/536327.html
TheDefenseMinistryonWednesdaysaidthatairstrikeswouldbecoordinatedwithS y r i a,IraqandIranviaarecentlyestablished
intelligencecenterinBaghdad.
UnidentifiedDefenseMinistrysourcestoldInterfaxthatonlyRussianofficersandsoldierswhovolunteerfordutyinS y r i awouldbe
sent.TheheadofRussia'sGeneralStaff,ColonelGeneralNikolaiBogdanovsky,saidnoconscriptswouldbedeployed,Interfaxreported.
TheKremlin'sannouncementthatitwastakingthefighttotheIslamicState,whichhasaround2,400Russiancitizensreportedly
fightingforitmainlyfromthepredominantlyMuslim-populatedrepublicsofChechnyaandDagestandrewstrongsupport
fromtheRussianOrthodoxChurch.
TheChurch'shead,PatriarchKirill,saida"responsibledecision"hadbeentaken"fortheprotectionoftheSyrianpeoplefromcalamities
inflictedbytheiniquityofterrorists,"accordingtoastatementpublishedontheChurch'swebsite.
AspokesmanfortheMoscowPatriarchate,VsevolodChaplin,wasquotedbytheInterfax-Religionnewsserviceascallingtheflight
againstIslamicextremism"aholywar."
Likewise,ChechenleaderRamzanKadyrov,abombasticandoutspokensupporterofPutinandhispoliciesandhimselfaMuslim,saidhe
washappytoseeRussiainterveneinS y r i a,butwasdisappointedgroundoperationswereruledout.
Kadyrovpromisedtojointhefirstwaveofgroundforces,iftheyweredeployed.ChechenfightersloyaltoKadyrovandPutinare
believedtohavetakenpartinfightingineasternUkraine,whereKremlin-backedrebelshavebeenfightingUkrainiangovernment
forces.
ThelasttimetheFederationCouncilauthorizedPutintouseforceabroadwasinMarch2014,justbeforeRussia'sannexationofCrimea
fromUkraine.TheauthorizationwasrevokedinlateJune2014,atPutin'surging.
Putin'srequestforpermissiontouseforceinS y r i awasunexpectedandpassedthroughtheFederationCouncilquickly,andwithno
dissentingvotes.162ofthe170-memberbodyvotedyes,whileeightlegislatorswerenotpresentforthevote.
ThechairmanoftheFederationCouncil'sdefenseandsecuritycommittee,ViktorOzerov,toldtheRussianNewsServiceonWednesday
thatPutinsubmittedhisrequesttothelegislativebodyonMondaywhileinNewYorkattendingtheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly.
InhisaddresstotheUN,PutinproposedthecreationofabroadinternationalcoalitiontofighttheIslamicStateinS y r i a.Later,Putin
metwithU.S.PresidentBarackObamabehindcloseddoorstodiscussS y r i a,amongotherthings.
ARussianofficialinBaghdadnotifiedtheU.S.justonehourbeforeMoscowlaunchedairstrikesinS y r i a,andrequestedthatU.S.
aircraftavoidSyrianairspace,U.S.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaidWednesday.
TheannouncementthattheRussianairforcewouldbeginairoperationsinS y r i asparkedastreamofcommentsonsocialmedia
comparingittotheSovietUnion's1979decisiontosendtroopstoAfghanistantosupportastrugglingsocialistregimethere.
TheAfghanwar,whichlastedmorethannineyears,sawaround15,000Soviettroopsdie,andpromptedtheriseofvirulent
andviolentIslamistextremismintheregion.
RussianofficialsofallstripeswereadamantWednesdaythatthecountry'smilitaryactionsinS y r i awouldbelimitedtoairstrikes
andthatnoRussiansoldierswouldbedeployedtofightalongsideAssad'sarmyagainsttheIslamicStateorWestern-backedopposition
forces.
"Wewon'tenterariskzone,wherewewouldbedraggedintoalong-termconflictorwhenourservicemen'slivesareatstake,"thehead
oftheFederationCouncil'sforeignaffairscommittee,KonstantinKosachyov,toldtheRossiya-24televisionchannel,accordingtoa
transcriptbytheSputniknewsagency.
However,thereisalreadysomeindicationthatRussianforcesareonthegroundfightingforAssad'ssurvival.Videosappearedonline
earlierthismonthreportingtoshowRussianequipmentoperatedbyRussiansoldiersengagingincombatinS y r i a.
Followingthestrikes,U.S.officialssaidthattheRussianwarplaneshadhittargetsintheHomsregion,anareacontestedbyanti-Assad
rebels,butnottheIslamicState.
AnalystspolledbyTheMoscowTimesonTuesdayaboutwhatRussia'sso-called"redline"mightbeforafull-scaleopenintervention
inthefour-year-oldSyriancivilwarsaidthatoperationswerelikelytoberestrictedtoairstrikes.
However,YuvalWeber,anassistantprofessorofinternationalrelationsatMoscow'sHigherSchoolofEconomicstoldTheMoscowTimes
onWednesdaythatbydeclaringlimitedinvolvementinAssad'swar,RussiawasrepeatingU.S.mistakesearlyintheVietnamwar.
"Bycommittingtoanallyfacingadeterminedandindigenousfoe,PresidentPutinisputtinghimselfinasimilarpositiontoPresident
JohnsonregardingSouthVietnaminlate1964,early1965,"Webersaid.
Webersaidthatwhennationscommitlimitedmilitaryforce,andstaketheirprestigeontheoutcomeoftheconflict,theincentive
becomestoincreasetheirmilitarycommitmenttoprotecttheirreputation.
ThoughRussia'smovemightsimplybeabidtosaveanembattledally,itmightalsobeabidtoreverseMoscow'sstatusasaglobal
pariahafteritsactionsinUkraine."Thelargerstrategicissueiswhether[this]isanattempttocreateissuelinkagewithUkraine:
genuinelyhelptheU.S.-ledcoalitionintheMiddleEasttogainconcessionsinEurope,"hesaid.
http://www.1tv.ru/news/polit/293167
PutinisshowntakingselfieswithUNdelegatesandthestoryhasVVP(atapressconference)claimingtheAmericanside
initiatedthemeeting(Comment:AfacesavinglineusedmanytimesinKremlinstorylinesonUS-Russiameetingsand
phonecallsbetweenthepresidents).

Kremlin.ruhaspostedatranslationofPutinsQ&AwithjournalistsattheUN:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50394
http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_9847%2Fall
ThemainsuccessofPutinstriptoNewYorkwasthatofthePRpeople.Propagandaraisedexpectationsaroundtheevent.
PutinsspeechsummarizedRussiasalreadywellknownpositions.Therewasnotanythingfundamentallynewinit.Andthe
hiddenexchangeofpolemicaldigswiththeUSwasntanythingnew,either.
http://www.businessinsider.com/russian-soldier-motorola-seen-fighting-in-syria-2015-9
Awell-knownRussiansoldierimplicatedinwarcrimesineasternUkrainehasnowbeenspottedinSyria.
PhotosallegedlytakeninSyriashowArsenyPavlov,betterknownbyhisnomdeguerreMotorla,fightinginthecountry.OnephotohasMotorola
holdingagunwhilewearingauniformemblazonedwiththeSyrianregimeflagandthelikenessofSyrianpresidentBasharal-Assad.
Thisisn'tthefirstsightingofMotorolainSyria.AphotoofMotorolathatemergedinmid-September,TheDailyBeastreports,featuredthe
soldierandafriendposingnexttoaportraitofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad,likelywithinSyria.
RussiaisvisiblyanddramaticallybolsteringitsmilitarypresenceinSyria.Moscowhassaidthatthesedeploymentsareintendedtohelppropthe
Assadregimebyengaginginstrikesagainstmoderaterebels,thealNusraFront,andISIS.
ThedeploymentsarestilllikelytobenefittheKremlin.RussiahasmoveddozensoffighteraircraftandmilitarysuppliestoSyria'scoastwhilealso
launchinganavalexerciseintheeasternMediterranean.ThesedeploymentsalthoughnotpopularinRussiahelpMoscowtoexpandtheir
regionalinfluencetolevelsunseensincetheColdWar.
Motorola'spresencecouldactaullyhelpRussiaputapopularfaceonitsSyriadeployment.Motorolafirstgainedprominenceduringhistimeasthe
headoftheSpartaBattalionineasternUkraine.ThemilitiagroupgainedprominenceafteritseizedtheDonetskAirportinJanuary2015,effectively
routingtheUkrainiantroopspostedthere.
PavlovallegedlyexecutedIhorBranovytsky,acapturedUkrainiansoldierinApril2015.BranovytskyhadbeencapturedattheDonetskAirportby
Russian-backedrebelforces.
AfterthekillingofBranovytsky,Motorolaallegedlyparticipatedinatelephoneinterviewinwhichheclaimedtohaveexecutedoveradozen
capturedUkrainians.
"I'veshot15prisoners.Idon'tgiveas**t.Nocomment.IkillwhoeverIwant,"Motorolasaidintheinterview.However,ithasnotbeen
independentlyverifiedthatthevoicebelongedtoMotorola.
SincefightingineasternUkraine,MotorolahasbeensubjecttoaEuropeanUnionblacklist.Butthesanctionsdon'tappeartofazehim.
"IdonothaveabankaccountabroadandIdonotplantovisitthecountriesoftheEU,sotheirsanctionsagainstmearemisplacedandpointless,"
MotorolatoldtheGeorgianJournalinMarch2015.
MotorolatoldtheGeorgianJournalthathehadpreviouslyservedasaRussiansoldierintheChechenWarinthe1990s.Intheyearsbetween
thefightinginChechnyaandUkraine,MotorolaallegedlyranacarwashinRussiaclosetotheUkrainianborder.Motorolasaidthatafterbeing
arrestedfordrunkdrivinginastolencar,hechosetofightinUkraineoverservingaprisonsentence.
KonstantinRemchukov:TheUSnotreadyforabiggerRussianroleintheMiddleEast
http://www.ng.ru/world/2015-09-29/100_russiausa.html
RemchukovsaysthatsthereasonUShasbeenwaryofPutinscommentsonaRussianroleinSyriaWashingtonhadgrown
usedtothinkingthat1973wasthelasttimeMoscowspositionhadtobetakenintoaccountintheregionPutinscontactswith
Israel,SaudiArabia,andIraninformationexchangesbetweenIraq,Iran,Russia,andSyriaandIraqrefusingtocloseitsair
spacetoRussianwarplanessignifyRussiasintentiontoreturntotheMiddleEastgreatgameinabigwayRemchukovsaysthat
theexpertshehastalkedtothinkthat(Moscows)takeoutISIS,replaceAssadlooksmorepragmaticthan(Washingtons)
removeAssad,takeoutISISthinking.WithObamaalreadydealingwiththenextpresidentialcampaignandthevariousinterest
groupswhohaveastakeintheMiddleEast,WashingtoncannotreactquicklytoMoscowsinitiativesRemchukovgoesonto
saythatexpertsbelieveairstrikesonlywontbeenoughtoreclaimterritorytakenbyISIStheISISfighterscanmoveoutharms
way,butwontnecessarilylosecontrolofterritoryKerryandLavrovworkwelltogethertheareamongfewhighlevelofficials
inWashingtonandMoscowwhotrustoneanother,saysRemchukovTherearealotofpeopleintheUSwhothinkPutins
positiononSyriaisasensibleone,butnoonecanexplainhowtoformacoalitionofMoslemstatestofightISISifWashington
remainsskepticalRemchukovclosesbysayingthatoverall,thespeechesbyObamaandPutinarecauseforoptimism.Despite
allthedisagreementsbetweenthem,nobodyisplanningtowrecktheUNthereissimplynoalternativeplatformformaking
legitimatedecisionsregardingglobalproblems
Comment:RecallthatLatyninahasclaimedthatKokhverwaskidnappedtostageanexchangeforaRussianagent.
Seethe28Septembernotes.ShehasalsoclaimedthatSavchenkowassnatchedaswell.Seethe21Augustnotes.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/ukrainian-officer-savchenko-on-trial-in-russia-says-she-was-
kidnapped/535904.html
AUkrainianofficerchargedwiththedeathsoftwoRussianjournalistsineasternUkrainesaidTuesdayshewaskidnappedbyRussiansaftershe
wascapturedbyseparatistrebels.
RussianprosecutorsclaimNadezhdaSavchenkointentionallytargetedjournalistsandcivilianswhenUkrainianforcesattackedrebelpositions
inJune2014.
Savchenko,aUkrainianpilotwhoservedinavolunteerbattalionfightingalongsidegovernmenttroopsagainstRussia-backedrebels,toldthecourt
shehadbeencapturedbeforethemortarattackonciviliansandjournalists.
Afteraweekofcaptivityintherebel-heldLuhansk,Savchenkosaid,shewashandedovertounknownmenwithRussianaccentswhotookher
acrosstheborder.Savchenkosaidarmed,maskedmentookhertoahotelinthecityofVoronezhwhereshewaskeptforaweekbeforeshewas
formallycharged.
"Iwasn'tabletogooutanywhereforaweek:Iwasguardedbymaskedmen,"saidSavchenko,whowasdressedinatraditionalUkrainian
embroideredblouse.
Savchenkosaidshewasonareconnaissancemissionwalkingafewmilesfromwherethemortarshellslanded.
Russianprosecutorshavedeniedthatshewassmuggledacrosstheborder.Instead,theyinsistthatSavchenkoescapedcaptivityinLuhansk
andsneakedintoRussiainordertoperpetrateanactofterror.
TheUkrainiangovernmenthascampaignedforSavchenko'srelease,claimingthatthechargesagainstherweretrumpedupandthatsheshouldbe
treatedasaprisonerofwar.
Sinceherdetention,SavchenkowaselectedtotheUkrainianparliamentandvotedasadelegatetotheParliamentaryAssemblyofEurope.
Savchenko'strialisbeingheldinthesmallsouthernRussiantownofDonetsk,whichhasthesamenameastheUkrainiancitythatisthemainrebel
stronghold,neartheUkrainianborder.Tuesday'ssessionwasavailableonawebcast.
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