Trump 11

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.
com>
Senttime: 12/05/201503:39:33AM
JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>nathanielreynolds<naterey80@gmail.com>KellyKivler
To:
<kbk1267@gmail.com>
Subject: RussiaIsa"TrollState,"NotaRogueState(cleverpiece)
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/russia-is-a-troll-state-not-a-rogue-state
RussiaIsa"TrollState,"NotaRogueState
December2,2015
ByAndrewKornbluth
IntheeighteenmonthssinceRussiaannexedCrimea,theworldhasbeenalternatelycaptivated
andbewilderedbythewildswingsandsuddenshiftsthatdescribeRussianforeignpolicyunder
PresidentVladimirPutin.ParticularlyalarmingforthosewhofearadirectclashbetweenRussia
andtheWesthasbeenPutin'stendencytoswervebetweenantagonismandconciliation,or
evenmorebizarrelytopursuebothsimultaneously.
Inanattempttoputanametothisbehavior,avarietyofepithets,from"roguestate"to"spoiler,"
havebeendustedoffandappliedtothepresentRussiangovernment.Butinsofarasthecurrent
stateofPutin'sRussiarepresentsanewkindofautocracy,noneoftheselabelsdojusticetoits
innovativenature.Perhapsabetterindicationofwhatdrivesthissystemcanbefoundinthe
Russiangovernment'swell-documentedembraceofInternet"trolling,"whichcorresponds
surprisinglywelltotheseeminglyrandomandcontradictoryfluctuationsofthecountry'srelations
withtheoutsideworld.
Initsmostbasicform,trollingreferstothephenomenonofInternetuserswhopostinflammatory
messagesinonlineforumslikecommentsectionsandsocialmediathreadswiththeaimof
antagonizingothers.Althoughmosttrollingisidleprovocation,theKremlinwasfamously
revealedinthelastyeartobepayinglargenumbersofprofessional"trolls"tobothwriteandup-
votepostspraisingRussia'soccupationofUkrainianterritoryandcondemningitscritics.Buthow
cantrollingbeatechniqueofrule?
Tobeginwith,trolls,regardlessoftheangertheyunleashonline,arenotpeoplewhowantto
definitivelycutthemselvesofffromtherealworld.Trollsseekinstantgratificationandattention
byspreadingvitriolontheInternet,butresumetheirnormallivesoffline.Withthisinmind,
Russia'ssuddeninterventioninthewarinSyriacanbeunderstoodasthelatestinalonglineof
trollingcampaigns,beginningwiththesuspensionofforeignadoptionsthreeyearsago.Theseacts
wereintendedtoneedletheWestandcheerRussians,butwithoutriskinganactualbreakdownin
foreignrelations(inthisrespect,thewarinUkraineprovedtobeaseriousmiscalculation).
Thelabelof"roguestate"isthereforemisplacedwhenitcomestoRussia,whichclearlydesiresto
winreadmissiontothe"clubhouse"ofworldpowers.ThusthebombingofSyrianrebels,forall
theconsternationithascaused,hasbeenaccompaniedbythinly-veiledpleasforWestern
governmentstolifttheisolationimposedonRussiaovertheUkrainiancrisis.
Trollingisalsoaneffectivesubstituteforconstructiveactivity.Bytormentingothers,trollscreate
theillusionofactionandassuagetheirownnaggingfeelingsofpowerlessness.Likewise,Putin's
militaryadventuresinUkraineandSyriahavebeenremarkablysuccessfulatdistractingattention
fromtheworseningdecayofRussia'shumanandeconomiccapital.
Butthesatisfactionderivedfromtrollingisinherentlyshort-lived.Tosustaintheirshortattention
spans,trollsmustconstantlyfindnewandvariedwaystobaittheiropponents.Hencethe
dizzyingpivotfrompromotingtheso-called"People'sRepublics"ofDonetskandLuhansk,which
werebanishedfromtheheadlinesalmostovernight,toheraldingthecreationofan"anti-terrorist
coalition"inSyria.
Unfortunately,trollingisatacticthatcannotserveasaplatformforalong-termvisionorstrategy.
Inplaceofideology-basedoppositiontotheWest,Russia'strollstateoffersuponlyirascibility
andschadenfreude,thegleederivedfromotherpeople'sfrustrations.Perhapsitcouldnotbe
otherwise.Afterall,Russia'selitedependsontheWestforrecreation,money-laundering,
medicaltreatment,andtheeducationofitschildren.Inmanyways,Russia'srulershavemorein
commonwiththeWest'supperclassthantheydowiththepensionersscrapingbyintheMoscow
suburbs.
Thedanger,ofcourse,isthatevenbloodlesstrollingcanunintentionallyescalateintolife-or-death
confrontation,ariskthatwasmaderealwhen,aftermonthsofRussianincursionsintoforeign
airspacefromtheBalticstoJapan,TurkeyshotdownaRussianbomberpassingoveritsterritory.
Butthestate'srelianceontrollinginanideologicalvacuumgivessomecauseforhope.Afterall,a
sustainedandsoberresponse,bothonlineandinreallife,isoftensufficienttocurbtrolling.Inthe
commotionsetoffbyRussia'sSyrianinterlude,manyseemtohaveforgottenthatlimited
sanctionsanddiplomaticostracismappeartohavepersuadedtheKremlintorestrainitsforcesin
theDonbasregion.AlthoughtheconflictineasternUkrainecontinuestoclaimlivesonadaily
basisandhasflaredbackup,nomajoroffensivehasbeenlaunchedsinceFebruary2015.
TothinkofRussiaasatrollstateisnottoassumethatithasnorealgoalsorthatitstargetsare
chosenpurelyonawhim.Itdoes,however,helptoexplainastyleofstatecraftthatmight
otherwiseseemincreasinglyirrationalandunpredictable.Certainly,theRussianpublicdelightsin
thespectacleoftheirPresidentpokingWesternleadersintheeye.AndPutindoesseemtohave
hitonsomethingfundamentalabouttheagewelivein.AstheunexpectedpopularityofDonald
Trump'srunfortheAmericanpresidencyhasdemonstrated,trollingisapoliticaltechnique
perfectlysuitedtomorethanoneeasily-bored,confrontation-hungrymodernsociety.
AndrewKornbluthisadoctoralstudentintheDepartmentofHistoryattheUniversityof
California,Berkeley.
TheFlightofTheDemon:ABrutalRussianOfficerReportedlyFleesHisPlaceInthe
UkraineWar
LieutenantColonelIgorBezlerLeavesasUkrainianTroopsAdvance,HisHostage...
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/07/201512:13:42PM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Obama'sTerrorismSpeech:DoesthePresidentTaketheISISThreatSeriously?-TheAtlanticBeinart
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/12/obama-isis-speech-terrorism/419055/
HowObamaThinksAboutTerrorism
AtthecoreofBarackObamasterrorismspeechonSundaynightlayacontradiction.Hegavetheaddresstoconvincean
increasinglyfearfulnationthathetakestheterroristthreatseriously.Buthedoesnt,atleastnotinthewayhispolitical
opponentsdo.
ForGeorgeW.Bush,thefightagainstjihadistterrorismwasWorldWarIII.InhisspeechtoCongressninedaysafter9/11,
Bushcalledal-Qaedatheheirsofallthemurderousideologiesofthe20thcentury...theyfollowinthepathoffascism,
Nazism,andtotalitarianism.ManyRepublicansstillseethewaronterrorintheseepicterms.AftertheParisattacks,
MarcoRubiodidntmerelywarnthattheIslamicStatemighttakeoverIraq,Syria,andotherpartsoftheMiddleEast.He
warnedthatitmighttakeovertheUnitedStates.America,heargued,isatwarwithpeoplewholiterallywanttooverthrow
oursocietyandreplaceitwiththeirradicalSunniIslamicviewofthefuture.Inhistelling,theUnitedStatesandradical
Islamarevirtualequals,pittedinacivilizationalconflictthateithertheywinorwewin.
Obamathinksthatsabsurd.UnlikeRubio,heconsidersviolentjihadismasmall,toxicstrainwithinIslamiccivilization,nota
civilizationitself.AndunlikeBush,hedoesntconsideritaseriousideologicalcompetitor.Inthe1930s,whenfascismand
communismwereattheirideologicalheight,manybelievedtheycouldproducehigherlivingstandardsforordinarypeople
thandemocraticcapitalistsocietiesthatwerepronetodevastatingcyclesofboomandbust.Noonebelievesthatabout
radicalIslamtoday.InObamasview,Isuspect,democraticcapitalismsrealideologicaladversaryisnottheradical
IslamofISIS.Itstheauthoritarian,state-managedcapitalismofChina.
WhileRepublicansthinkISISisstrongandgrowingstronger,Obamathinksitsweakandgrowingweaker.Terrorists,he
declaredonSunday,nowturntolesscomplicatedactsofviolencelikethemassshootingsthatarealltoocommoninour
society.Inotherwords,theIslamicStateprobablycantdoanythingtoAmericathatweAmericansarentdoingto
ourselvesallthetime,andnowlargelytakeforgranted.
ObamaalsoarguedthattheIslamicStateislosingintheMiddleEast,wherethestrategythatweareusingnowair
strikes,specialforces,andworkingwithlocalforceswhoarefightingtoregaincontroloftheirowncountrywillproduce
asustainablevictory.
TheleadingGOPpresidentialcandidatesrejectthat.TheybelievedefeatingtheIslamicStaterequiressomedramatic,if
vaguelydefined,newmilitaryandideologicalexertion.Obama,bycontrast,thinksAmericasimplyneedstonotscrewup.
Thatmeansnotbeingdrawnoncemoreintoanefforttooccupyforeignlands,thusallowingtheIslamicStatetouse
ourpresencetodrawnewrecruits.
WhileObamadoesntsayitoutright,heappearstobesubtlyreferencingRobertPapesinfluentialargumentthatthegreat
driverofsuicideterrorismisnotjihadistideologybutoccupation.BecauseObama,unlikeBushandRubio,believesthe
IslamicStateisideologicallyweak,hethinksAmericascurrentstrategywilleventuallydefeatitunlessAmericacommitsa
largeoccupyingforce,whichwouldgivethejihadistsamassiveshotinthearm.
TheotherunforcederrorAmericamustavoid,accordingtoObama,islettingthisfightbedefinedasawarbetween
AmericaandIslam.That,too,iswhatgroupslikeISILwant.BecausetheGOPcandidatesseeviolentjihadismasa
powerful,seductiveideology,theythinkthatmanyAmericanMuslimsareatriskofbecomingterrorists,andthusthatthe
UnitedStatesmustmonitorthemmoreaggressively.BecauseObamaseesviolentjihadismasideologicallyweakand
unattractive,hethinksthatfewAmericanMuslimswillembraceitunlesstheUnitedStatesmakesthemfeellikeenemiesin
theirowncountrywhichisexactlywhatDonaldTrumprisksdoing.
ObamaisakindofFukuyamian.LikeFrancisFukuyama,theauthorofthefamed1989essayTheEndofHistory,he
believesthatpowerful,structuralforceswillleadliberaldemocraciestotriumphovertheirfoessolongasthese
democraciesdontdostupidthingslikepersecutingMuslimsathomeorinvadingMuslimlandsabroad.HisRepublican
opponents,bycontrast,believethatpowerfulandsinisterenemiesareoverwhelmingAmerica,eitheroverseas(theRubio
version)ordomestically(theTrumpversion).
Forthem,theonlythingmoreterrifyingthanradicalIslamistheequanimitywithwhichPresidentObamameetsit.And,
totheirdismay,thatequanimitywasverymuchondisplayonSundaynight.
From: JohnP.Williams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Senttime: 11/29/201506:38:54AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:Ex-CIAchief:FearforenvironmentstaysUShandonISISoilwells|TheHill
Makesatleastsomesense...
SentfrommyiPhone
OnNov29,2015,at6:54AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/261283-ex-cia-chief-fear-for-environment-stays-us-hand-
on-isis-oil-wells
Ex-CIAchief:FearforenvironmentstaysUS
handonISISoilwells
AformerCIAdirectorsaysconcernsaboutenvironmentalimpacthavepreventedtheWhiteHouse
frombombingoilwellsthatfinancetheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria(ISIS).
Wedidntgoafteroilwells,actuallyhittingoilwellsthatISIScontrols,becausewedidntwanttodo
environmentaldamage,andwedidntwanttodestroythatinfrastructure,MichaelMorellsaidTuesday
onPBSsCharlieRose.
Morellcautionedthathedoesnotsitintheroomanymorewherestrategicdecisionsaremade,but
saidpriortotheParisterroristattackearlierthismonth,Thereseemedtohavebeenajudgmentthat,
look,wedontwanttodestroytheseoiltankersbecausethatsinfrastructurethatsgoingtobe
necessarytosupportthepeoplewhenISISisntthereanymore,anditsgoingtocreateenvironmental
damage.
SincetheattackonParis,theU.S.hastriedtocutofftheterroristorganizationsrevenuestreamby
bombingoiltrucks.
Sonowwerehittingoiltrucks,Morellsaid.Andmaybeyougettothepointwhereyousay,wealso
havetohitoilwells.
Sothosearethekindoftoughdecisionsyouhavetomake,headded.
ISIShasaccumulatedmillionsofdollarstofunditsmilitaryoperationsbyproducingandexportingoilin
thepartsofIraqandSyriaunderitscontrol.
DonaldTrumpandotherRepublicanprimarycandidateshaveforcefullyadvocatedstrikingthe
groupsoilreservesandotherfinancialresources.
Senttime: 12/17/201512:44:31AM
Subject: MarcoRubio'sGordianknot(sorry)
http://theweek.com/articles/594461/marco-rubios-gordian-knot
MarcoRubio'sGordianknot
BythetimeMarcoRubioarrivedinWashingtonin2011,hehadalreadylearnedaprofoundlessonfromBarack
Obama.Thatlesson,whichcamefromObama'selectionin2008,saidthatdespitewhatmuchofhistoryandsome
peopleinWashingtonmightadvise,youdon'thavetowaityourturntorunforpresident.Youdon'thavetoamassa
lengthyrecordingovernment,workyourwayuptheladder,andgetsomegreyaroundyourtemples.Ifyou'vegot
thetalentandthetiming,youcanseizeyourmomentandreachforthatultimateprize.
AndsoRubiodid.ButevenasheremainstheRepublicancandidatethatinformedinsidersaremostbullishon,
somethingisnotrightwithhisbid.Hehascreptupinthepolls,butstillremainsadistantthirdbehindDonaldTrump
andTedCruz.Hedoesn'tleadinanystate,notevenFlorida.Andthemessageonwhichhehasbuilthiscandidacy
seemsallwrongfortheRepublicanelectorateofthemoment.IsthereanywayforRubiotountiethisGordianknot?
PartoftheproblemmaybethattheMarcoRubioof2015doesindeedresembletheBarackObamaof2007:both
young,onlyinWashingtonafewyearsafterstintsintheirstatelegislatures,possessedofnaturalpoliticalskillsandan
abilitytotransfixacrowd,oneblackandtheotherHispanic,bothwithfamilyhistoriestheyskillfullyweaveintothe
storyofAmerica.
Butinthe2008election,Obama'stimingwasimpeccable.Heembodiedaninversionandarejectionofeverythinghis
partyhatedaboutthesittingpresident.Unlikehismainopponent,hehadtherightpositiononthesinglemost
importantissueofthecampaign(theIraqWar).Andhereflectedtheparty'schangingdemographicidentitynot
justwhoitwas,buthowitwantedtoseeitself.
MarcoRubiohasnoneofthat.Thereisnooneissuedominatingtheraceonwhichthere'sacleardivisionbetween
thecandidates.TheleadersofhispartywantandneedtoembraceHispanicvoters,butitsbaseisstilldominatedby
olderwhitepeople.AndthoughfewdoubtthatRubiohasthetalent,histiminglookstobeallwrong.
MorePerspectives JamesPoulos
TheGOP'smissingmiddle
MichaelBrendanDougherty
MidnightinAmerica
Fromthebeginning,Rubiohascharacterizedhimselfasthecandidateofanewgeneration,readytomovetheGOP
intothe21stcentury.ButwhilethatmighthavesomeresonanceagainstHillaryClinton,itisn'tnecessarilywhatthe
Republicanelectoratewants.ObamasucceededwithDemocratsbyofferinghopeandchange,afaithinthecountry's
progressandforwardmovement.ButRepublicanvotersaredifferent.AsI'vewrittenelsewhere,currentRepublican
worriesaboutimmigration,terrorism,same-sexmarriage,andmanyotherissuesareessentiallyallmanifestationsof
onefeeling,thesenseofbeingprofoundlyunsettledbythedirectionthecountryandtheworldismoving.Forvoters
whofeelliketheircountryisslippingawayfromthemandslippingoutofcontrol,changemaybethelastthingthey
wanttobelievein,unlessit'schangethatsimplyturnsbacktheclocktoasimplertime.
Rubiohimselfcan'tseemtofigureouthowtoexpresswhoheiswhilestillappealingtothoseworriedvoters.He
doesn'tdoangerlikeDonaldTrump,andthoughdevoutheisn'tgoingtobethechoiceofevangelicalslikeTedCruz.
Whenhetalksabouthisimmigrantparentssacrificingtogivehimopportunity,it'sstirringbutrightnowRepublican
votersdon'twanttohearaboutthecontributionsimmigrantsmake.
WhenhefirstcametotheSenate,Rubiowoulddropinreferencestorappersinhisspeechestoshowhowhiphe
was,butheisn'tdoingthatanymore.AndinhislatestTVad,hesaysthattheelection"isaboutallofuswhofeelout
ofplaceinourowncountry."Thatshowsthatheunderstandsthealienatedfeelingmanyoldervotershave,whenthey
lookatthewaythecountry'sdemographicsarechanging,itssocialvalueshaveevolvedpastthem,andpopculture
hasbecomeinscrutable,asitalwaysistotheold.
ButtheideathatMarcoRubiofeelsoutofplaceinhiscountryisridiculous,tofriendandfoealike.Thatwas
supposedtobehiswholeappeal,thathewastheonewhowasn'toutofplaceinthenewAmerica.Young,Hispanic
(andbilingual),forward-looking,intouchwithtodayandtomorrow,Rubiowassupposedtobetheonewhowould
leadthepartyintoabrightfuture,notsitdowninarockingchairwiththemtopineforthepast.
That'stheconundrumRubiohasn'tyetsolved.Insomanywayshe'stheperfectcandidateforRepublicansorat
leastthebestthey'vegotbuthe'sexactlywrongforwheretheRepublicanelectorateisrightnow.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/17/201508:58:35AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"PutinadmitsMILITARYPRESENCEin[Eastern]UKRAINEduringmarathonpress[conference],"themoscowtimes.com,12/17
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Thursday,December17,20158:58AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"PutinadmitsMILITARYPRESENCEin[Eastern]UKRAINEduringmarathonpress[conference],"themoscowtimes.com,12/17
AskedbyaUkrainianreporteraboutanhourintotheconferenceabouttwocapturedRussian
militaryintelligenceofficerscurrentlyontrialinUkraine,Putinresponded:Wenever[?]saidthere
werenotpeopletherewhocarriedoutcertaintasks,especiallyinthemilitarysphere.Heinsisted,
however,thatthesewerenotregular[?]Russiantroops.
And:PutinadmitsRussianmilitarypresencein[EASTERN]UKRAINEforfirsttime,theguardian.com,
12/17
And:Pickingawinner?PutinsaysTRUMPisabsoluteleaderinU.S.presidentialrace,
washingtonpost.com,12/17
And:PutinpraisesabsoluteleaderTRUMPascolorful,talentedguy,Bloomberg.com,12/17
And:TheKremlin[PESKOV]:PutinlookedintothequestionanddeterminedthatPLATONdoesnot
belongtoRotenbergsson,http://www.rosbalt.ru/main/2015/12/17/1472435.html
And:WellknownrockmusicianYuriiSHEVCHUKshowsupattheencampmentofthestrikingtruckers
andsingsforthem(VIDEO):http://www.polit.ru/article/2015/12/17/shevchuk/
Thiswasnotthefirstgestureofsupportbythemusicianforthedrivers.SeveraldaysagoShevchuk
telephonedthedriverscampanddeclared.Iamwithyou.TheleaderoftherockgroupDDTalso
dedicatedthesongYouarenotalonetothestrikers.
And:TheLONGHAULtruckersaredissatisfiedwithPutinsopinion[expressedinhisannualpress
conference]aboutPLATON,http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27433868.html
InaninterviewwithDozhdTVoneofthestrikersEvgeniiStaritsyndeclared:Afterthepresidents
words[atthepressconference]Iamleftunemployed.Mychildrenwillnowbehungryandmywife
doesnotwork,thereisnoworkavailable.Theonlywayoutistopurchasearopeandsomesoap,first
Illhangthechildrenandthenmyself.
And:TherealincomeofRussiansdiminishedinNovemberby5.4%andwages,by9%,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2015/12/17/1472678.html
And:EconomistAndreiILLARIONOVdisputesPutinsstatementthatthepeakofthecrisishasbeen
passed(chart,statistics):http://echo.msk.ru/blog/aillar/1678586echo/

And:FormerdeputyenergyministerVladimirMILOVdoesthesame(chart):
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/miolov/1678524.html
And:PutinthreatensTurkishjetsinSYRIAasspatescalates,Bloomberg.com,12/17
Senttime: 12/05/201510:57:42AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Cc: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
FW:[LATESTINTHE"VLADGOIN'BAD"SERIES]Fwd:ECHRrulesRussiasmasstelephonesurveillanceunlawful......Fwd:AmidRUWar
Subject:
Talk,NATOSendsWarshipstoBlackSeaNearUA&TR.......TRRowLeavesRUStuckwithBillionsinAbandonedGasPipes......Tom
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,December05,20158:56AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[LATESTINTHE"VLADGOIN'BAD"SERIES]Fwd:ECHRrulesRussiasmasstelephonesurveillanceunlawful......Fwd:AmidRU
WarTalk,NATOSendsWarshipstoBlackSeaNearUA&TR.......TRRowLeavesRUStuckwithBillionsinAbandonedGasPipes......Tom
F...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>
Date:Fri,Dec4,2015at6:32PM
Subject:Fwd:ECHRrulesRussiasmasstelephonesurveillanceunlawfulTheRegister
To:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/12/04/mass_telephone_comms_interception_in_russia_ruled_unlawful_by_echr/
Russia'sblanketphonespyingbustedEurope'shuman
rightslaws
It'slikeglasnostalloveragain.Actually,it'snothinglikeglasnost
'Nah,youdon'tneedtosendmeacopy.Myladswillgetmeone'

4Dec2015at16:56,AlexanderJMartin
13 2
Russia'smasssurveillanceofallitscitizens'telephonecommunicationshasbeenfoundtobeaviolation
oftheEuropeanConventiononHumanRights,whichthecountryratifiedin1998.
TheGrandChamberjudgmentfromtheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightsistheproductofacomplaintmadebyaRussian
national,RomanZakharov,onthe23December2003.
Zakharov,whohasbeendescribedas"theeditor-in-chiefofapublishingcompany"allegedthathisprivacywasbeingviolatedbya
Russianlawwhichforcedmobilenetworkoperatorstoinstallequipmentwhichpermittedunrestrictedinterceptionofallofhis
telephonecommunications.
Zakharov'scomplaintwas"inparticularthatmobilenetworkoperatorsinRussiawererequiredbylawtoinstallequipmentenabling
law-enforcementagenciestocarryoutoperational-searchactivitiesandthat,withoutsufficientsafeguardsunderRussianlaw,this
permittedblanketinterceptionofcommunications".
Apressreleaseaboutthejudgment(PDF),whichwasdeliveredtoday,saidthecourtunanimouslyfoundtherehadbeen"a
violationofArticle8(righttorespectforprivatelifeandcorrespondence)oftheEuropeanConventiononHumanRights".
Zakharovallegedthat,"undertheOperational-SearchActivitiesActof1995(theOSSA),theCodeofCriminalProcedureof
2001(theCCrP)and,morespecifically,Orderno.70issuedbytheMinistryofCommunicationswhichrequires
telecommunicationsnetworkstoinstallequipmentenablinglaw-enforcementagenciestocarryoutoperational-searchactivities
themobileoperatorshadpermittedunrestrictedinterceptionofalltelephonecommunicationsbythesecurityserviceswithoutprior
judicialauthorisation".
Zakharov"askedthedistrictcourtinchargetoissueaninjunctiontoremovetheequipmentinstalledunderOrderno.70,andto
ensurethataccesstotelecommunicationswasgiventoauthorisedpersonsonly".
Zakharov'schallengewasdismissedbydomesticcourts,as"hehadfailedtoprovethathistelephoneconversationshadbeen
interceptedorthatthemobileoperatorshadtransmittedprotectedinformationtounauthorisedpersons".
Additionally,thosecourtsclaimedthatthe"installationoftheequipmenttowhichhereferreddidnotinitselfinfringetheprivacyof
hiscommunications".
Notonlywasthisseeminglyinconflictwiththenation'sownconstitution,whichguarantees"therighttoprivacyofcorrespondence,
oftelephoneconversations,postal,telegraphandothermessages"butalsowithArticle8oftheEuropeanConventiononHuman
Rights(ECHR).
Russia'slegalframeworkaroundthemasssurveillancewasfoundtobeunfitbecauseitdidnotlimitthecircumstancesinwhich
publicauthoritieswereallowedtoconducttheirsurveillanceactivities,norwerethereanylimitsonthedurationofthoseactivities.
Additionally,therewasinsufficientsupervisionoftheinterceptionandalackof"proceduresforauthorisinginterceptionaswellas
forstoringanddestroyingtheintercepteddata".
GrandChamberjudgmentsarefinal.ItwillnowbetransmittedtotheCouncilofEuropeCommitteeofMinisterswhowill
superviseitsexecution.
Sponsored:EvolutionoftheHybridEnterprise

Tipsandcorrections

From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Subject:AmidRussiaWarTalk,NATOSendsWarshipsToBlackSeaNearTurkey,Ukraine(NewTheatreofWar?
__WD)
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,wderzko@pathcom.com
AmidRussiaWarTalk,NATOSendsWarshipsToBlackSeaNearTurkey,Ukraine
ByElizabethWhitman@elizabethwhittye.whitman@ibtimes.comonDecember0420159:15AMEST
AmidtensionswithRussia,NATOsentwarshipsintotheBlackSea"topromotepeaceandstabilityinthe
region,"theU.S.Navysaid,RussianmediareportedFriday.Above,NATOamphibiousshipsparticipatein
NATOExerciseTridentJunctureinTroia,nearSetubal,Portugal,Nov.5,2015.Reuters/RafaelMarchante
TheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationhasstationedfourwarshipsintheBlackSea,theRussiannewsagency
SputnikreportedFriday.TheBlackSeasitsbetweenseveralcountrieswithstrainedrelationsoflate,including
Russia,TurkeyandUkraine.Russian-Turkishrelationshavebeenparticularlytenseinrecentweeks,after
TurkeyshotdownaRussianjetinSyrianairspaceinNovember.
TheU.S.wouldsendaguidedmissiledestroyer,theUSSRoss,"topromotepeaceandstabilityintheregion"as
partofOperationAtlanticResolve,saidapressreleasefromtheU.S.NavySixthFleetWednesday.Portugal,
SpainandCanadasentthemissilefrigatesFrancisAlmejida,BlasdeLezoandWinnipeg,respectively,Sputnik
reported.
OperationAtlanticResolveisa"demonstrationofcontinuedU.S.commitmenttothecollectivesecurityof
NATOandtoenduringpeaceandstabilityintheregion,inlightofRussia'sillegalactionsinUkraine,"according
totheU.S.Army.RussiahasalsobeencondemnedandsanctionedbyotherWesternnationsforitsinvolvement
intheongoingwarineasternUkraine.
TheUSSRoss's"operationsintheBlackSeaaremeanttoenhancemaritimesecurityandstability,readiness,
andnavalcapabilitywithouralliesandpartners,"theSixthFleet'spressreleaseread.Itadded,"TheU.S.
remainscommittedtomaintainingapersistentpresenceinEasternEurope"andthattheUSSRosswasona
"routinepatrolconductingnavaloperations...inordertoadvancesecurityandstabilityintheBlackSearegion."
TensionshavebeenhighbetweenRussiaandTurkey,aNATOmember,inthewakeofTurkey'sshootingdown
aRussianplaneinNovember.Oneofthetwopilotswaskilled.
"Ifsomebodythoughtthataftercommittingatreacherouswarcrime--thekillingofourpeople--itwouldbe
possibletogetawaywithmererestrictionsonthetradeoftomatoes,orsomeotherrestrictions...thentheyare
grosslymistaken,"RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsaidThursdayduringtheannualstateofthenation."They
willregretwhatthey'vedoneforalongtime,"headded.
TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganhasinsisted,followingtheincident,that"thosewhoviolatedour
airspacearetheoneswhoneedtoapologize."
Beyondissuingthreats,Russiahasalsosoughtretributioninavarietyofeconomicwayssincethedowningof
theplane.InNovember,RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovurgedRussians,whoconstitutethesecond-
highestproportionoftravelerstoTurkey,nottovisitthecountry"fortourismoranyotherreason."Russia
alsosuspendedtalksThursdaytobuildagaspipelinefromRussiatoEuropeviaTurkey,where"domestic
energydemandissurgingandinternalenergysourcesareextraordinarilylimited,"accordingtoananalysisby
thepublicationGlobalRiskInsights.
http://www.ibtimes.com/amid-russia-war-talk-nato-sends-warships-black-sea-near-turkey-ukraine-2211723
From:NFS
Date:Sat,Dec5,2015at8:59AM
Subject:TurkeyRowLeavesRussiaStuck
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
Industries|ThuDec3,201510:35amEST
Related:ENERGY,UTILITIES
TurkeyrowleavesRussiastuckwith
abandonedgaspipesworthbillions
*RussiasuspendsTurkishStreampipelinework
*Gazpromhadsignedfor1.8blneurospipeswithmakers
*PipesconstructedonlyforBlackSeause-sources
BySvetlanaBurmistrovaandJackStubbs
MOSCOW,Dec3Gaspipesworth1.8billioneuros($1.95billion)aretobeleftstrandedontheshoresofthe
BlackSeaafterRussia'sdecisiontosuspendworkontheTurkishStreampipeline,apotentsymbolofMoscow's
fallingoutwithAnkara.
RussiahassetouttopunishTurkeyafteritshotdownaRussianwarplaneinSyrialastweek,imposingtrade
sanctionsandreleasingdataitclaimsprovesTurkishPresidentTayyipErdoganisinvolvedinillegaloildealswith
IslamicState.
RussianEnergyMinisterAlexanderNovaktoldreportersonThursdayworkonTurkishStream,apipelineintended
topumpRussiangasintosoutheasternEuropeviaTurkeywhilebypassingUkraine,hadbeensuspended.
Shortlyafterwards,theheadofItalianoilmajorEni,slatedasoneofthemainbuyersforthepipeline'sgas,said
theprojectwasdeadinthewater.
ThedecisionleavesRussianenergygiantGazpromwithmilesofpipesonlyuseableintheBlackSea.
ItorderedpipesfromasfarafieldasJapanandGermanyforthe2,400-kilometre(1,491-mile)SouthStream
pipeline,originallyslatedtoopenin2018,whichwerethenreassignedtoTurkishStreamaftertheprojectwas
axed.
IndustrysourcessaidthepipescanonlybeusedforprojectsintheBlackSeabecauseoftheirspecialised
construction.GazpromwillnowbeforcedtoputthepipesinstorageuntiltensionsbetweenMoscowandTurkey
subside.
"Thesepipeswerecalibratedforaspecificenvironment,pressureandcapacity,"saidonesourceinthepipe-
makingindustry."Accordingly,theyareonlysuitableforunderwaterpipelinesintheBlackSea."
Gazpromwasnotavailableforcomment.
ABORTEDPREDECESSOR
AlthoughfreezingworkonTurkishStreamislargelysymbolic-ithaslongbeenbesetbydelaysanddoubtsoverits
viability-thefinancialimplicationsforGazpromareveryreal.
SberbankanalystValeryNesterovsaidGazpromhasspentbetween$12-14billiononTurkishStreamandits
abortedpredecessorSouthStream,whichwasabandonedlastyearinthefaceofEuropeanUnionoppositionand
heightenedtensionsovertheUkrainecrisis.
QuestionshavealsobeenraisedovertheplannedNordStreampipelinetoGermanyafteragroupof10European
governmentspublishedalettersayingtheprojectrancountertoEuropeanUnioninterestsandriskeddestabilising
Ukraine.
"Again,thecompanyisrapidlybuildingapipelinewhichmightnotbeneeded,"saidNesterov.
Russiaisoneoftheworld'slargeststeelpipeproducers,secondonlytoChina,andhasthecapacitytoturnout
morethan3milliontonnesofthelarge-diameterpipestypicallyusedinmajorenergyprojectseveryyear.
Russia'slargestpipemaker,TMK,saidTurkishStreamcouldberevivedinthefuture.
"Turkishstream,asaproject,isnotcompletelyfinished,"saidTMKVice-PresidentVladimirShmatovich.
"Maybeinayearortwo,whenthetensiondecreases,itwillberealised,"hesaid."Butthepipescouldlieonthe
groundfor50years."($1=0.9246euros)(AdditionalreportingbyDenisPinchukWritingbyJackStubbsEditing
byAndrewOsbornandWilliamHardy)
From:VRT
Subject:InterestingOpeninginTomFriedman'sOp-Ed:Putin'sSyrianMisadventure
To:waz2102@columbia.edu
TheOpinionPages|OP-EDCOLUMNIST
PutinsSyrianMisadventure
ThomasFriedman
DEC.2,2015
256COMMENTS
WhenPresidentVladimirPutinofRussiaannouncedhewassettingupanair Advertisement
baseinthemiddleofSyriatotakeontheIslamicStateandbolsterPresident
Basharal-Assad,morethanafewanalystsandpoliticianspraisedhisforceful,
game-changing,strategicbrilliance,suggestingthatPutinwascrazylikeafox.
Someofusthoughthewasjustcrazy.
Well,twomonthslater,letsdothemath:Sofar,PutinsSyrianadventurehasresultedina
Russiancivilianairlinercarrying224peoplebeingblownup,apparentlybypro-ISISmilitants
inSinai.TurkeyshotdownaRussianbomberafteritstrayedintoTurkishterritory.Andthen
SyrianrebelskilledoneofthepilotsasheparachutedtoearthandoneoftheRussianmarines
senttorescuehim.Manyoftheanti-AssadrebelsinthatareaareethnicTurkmens,with
strongculturaltiestoTurkeyTurkeywasnotamusedbyPutinbombingTurkmenvillages
insideSyria,becauseitweakensTurkeysabilitytoshapeSyriasfuture.
Meanwhile,inCrimea,Ukraine,whichPutinannexed,pro-TurkishTatarsapparentlycutthe
powerlines,plungingCrimeaintoaneartotalblackout.AndinOctoberdozensofSaudiclerics
calledforaholywaragainstthegovernmentsofSyria,IranandRussia.
Insum,PutinscraftySyrianchessmovehaslefthimwithalotmoredeadRussiansnewlyat
oddswithTurkeyandIranweakenedinUkraineactingasthedefenselawyerforAssada
massmurdererofSunniMuslims,thesameSunniMuslimsasPutinhasinRussiaandwithno
realadvancesagainstISIS.
Otherthanthat,itsbeenagreatsuccess.
Truthbetold,IwishPutinhadsucceeded.Itwouldhavesavedusallalotoftrouble,becauseISISisnotthe
J.V.teamPresidentObamaoncecalledit.ItsactuallytheJihadistAll-Starteam.Itcombinesthemilitary
efficiencyofIraqiex-Baathistarmyofficerswiththereligiouszealotryandprison-forgeddepravityofits
CaliphAbuBakral-Baghdadi,theWeb-savvyofArabmillennialsandathrill-rideappealtohumiliatedyoung
Muslimmales,whoveneverheldpower,adecentjoboragirlshand.
AndtheISISthreatisbecomingstrategic.ThemassiveoutflowofrefugeesfromSyriaandIraqthatISIShas
provokedisleadingtheEuropeanUniontostarttocloseinternalbordersandlimitthefreeflowofpeopleand
probablysomegoodsaswelljusttheoppositeofwhattheblocwascreatedtodo.Thatwillonlyslowthe
E.U.seconomicgrowthandfuelgreaternationalismthatcouldultimatelythreatenitsunity.TheE.U.is
Americasmostimportantpartnerinmanagingtheglobalsystem.Ifitisweakened,weareweakened.
ButtosustainablydestroyISIS,youneedtounderstandthreethings:1)Itistheproductoftwocivilwarsone
wasbetweenmoderateandextremistSunnisandtheotherwasbetweenSunnisandShiites.Andtheyfeed
eachother.2)TheonlywaytodefeatISISistominimizethestrugglebetweenSunnisandShiitesand
strengthenthefightingcapacityofmoderateSunnisagainstextremistones.And3)thefighthastobeledby
ArabsandMuslimsbutstronglybackedbyAmerica,theE.U.and,yes,Russia.
WhereasPutinsgoalsareuncertain,andperhapslimitedtoprotectingatruncatedAssadregime,Obamareally
doeswanttodefeatISIS.Justasimportant,hewantstodoitwithoutbeingeitherPutinorGeorgeW.Bush,
whojustdoveintothemiddle.
Butitisntclearthatamiddleapproachexists,letalonethefantasyoptionsofmanyObamacritics,asinDonald
Trumpsjustbombthe[blank]outofthem.(Gosh,noonethoughtofthat!)EveryonewantstodefeatISIS
withtheImmaculateIntervention:morebombsfromtheairorsomebodyelsestroops,boots,risksor
politicaltransformation.
Sorry,buttosustainablydefeatISISyouneedamutuallyreinforcingcoalition.YouneedSaudiArabiaandthe
leadingSunnireligiouspowerstoaggressivelydelegitimizeISISsIslamistnarrative.YouneedArab,Kurdish
andTurkishgroundtroopsbackedbyU.S.andNATOairpowerandspecialforces,withRussias
constructivesupporttouprootISISdoortodoor.
YouneedIrantoencouragetheShiite-ledgovernmentinBaghdadtocreateasemiautonomousSunnistanin
theareasheldbyISIS,givingmoderateIraqiSunnisthesamedevolvedpowersasKurdsinKurdistansothey
haveapoliticalalternativetoISIS.AndyouneedIrantoagreetoapoliticaltransitioninSyriathatwould
eventuallyreplaceAssad.
Inshort,youneedeitherapower-sharingpoliticalsolutionthatallthekeyplayersacceptandwillenforce,oran
armedforcetojustcrushISISandthensitontheregionindefinitely,soISISdoesntcomeback.Obamacant
securetheformer,anddoesntwanttodothelatter.NordotheAmericanpeoplenorObamascritics,
despitewhatsomeofthemmightsuggest.
YoucansaythatwhenitcomestoISISandSyria,Obamahasdoneanimpossiblejobbadly,andsomeoneelse
mighthavedoneitbetter.Butitisstillanimpossiblejobaslongasallthekeyplayersinthatregiondefinetheir
interestsasruleordieandaslongasmostoftherealdemocratsinthatregionarelivingabroad.
Senttime: 12/15/201512:01:03PM
To: RobertOtto<acrotto@us-state.osis.gov>
Subject: WhatisFascism?
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2015/12/10/9886152/donald-trump-fascism
Iasked5fascismexpertswhetherDonaldTrumpisafascist.Here'swhattheysaid.
IsDonaldTrumpafascist?
It'sbecomingacommonquestion,especiallyfollowingTrump'sannouncementthathesupportsbanningMuslimsfromenteringthe
UnitedStates,withcommentatorsandpoliticiansfromacrossthepoliticalspectrumansweringintheaffirmative:
Remindmeagain:whoarguedthatTrumpisn'tafascist?Whichpartofthe1stAmendmentisheleavingintact?
http://twitter.com/chrisgeidner/status/674069488841728000
MaxBoot(@MaxBoot)10:53PM-7Dec2015
.@realdonaldtrumpremovesalldoubt:heisrunningforPresidentasafascistdemagogue.
MartinO'Malley(@MartinOMalley)4:38PM-7Dec2015
Tobeblunt:DonaldTrumpisnotafascist."Fascism"hasbeenanall-purposeinsultformanyyearsnow,butithasarealdefinition,and
accordingtoscholarsofhistoricalfascism,Trumpdoesn'tqualify.Rather,he'saright-wingpopulist,orperhapsan"apartheidliberal"inthe
wordsofRogerGriffin,authorofTheNatureofFascism.Hedoesn'twanttooverthrowtheexistingdemocraticsystem.Hedoesn'twant
toscraptheConstitution.Hedoesn'tromanticizeviolenceitselfasavitalcleansingagentofsociety.He'ssimplyaracistwhowantstokeep
thecurrentsystembutdenyitsbenefitstogroupshe'sinterestedinoppressing.
Griffin,whoisaprofessorofhistoryandpoliticaltheoryatOxfordBrookesUniversity,putsitbest:"Youcanbeatotalxenophobicracist
malechauvinistbastardandstillnotbeafascist."
Fascismrequirestherejectionofdemocracy
GeneralPhotographicAgency/GettyImages
BenitoMussoliniaddressestheItalianparliamentin1938,longafterhe'drendereditirrelevant.
Definingfascismisanotoriouslydifficultscholarlytask.ThereareenoughdifferencesbetweentherelevantfascistregimesNazi
Germany,Mussolini'sItaly,perhapsFrancoistSpainthatidentifyingcommonalitiesthatdonotinturnimplicateplentyofclearlynon-
fascistregimesistricky.Butthereisgeneralagreementaboutsomerequirements.
EveryexpertIspoketoidentifiedsupportfortherevolutionaryoverthrowideallythroughviolenceofthestate'sentiresystemof
governmentasanecessarycharacteristicoffascism.Griffin'spreferreddefinitionoffascismis:
Fascismisagenusofpoliticalideologywhosemythiccoreinitsvariouspermutationsisapalingeneticformofpopulistultra-
nationalism.
Theword"palingenetic"meansrebirth,reflectingGriffin'sviewthatfascismmustinvolvecallingforthe"rebirth"ofthenation.Thatmight
atfirstglancesoundlikeTrump'spromiseto"makeAmericagreatagain,"butGriffininsistsonadistinction.Rebirth,inhistheory,actually
requiresthedramaticabandonmentoftheexistingpoliticalorder."Therehastobealongingforaneworder,anewnation,notjusta
reformedoldnation,"hetoldme."AslongasTrumpdoesnotadvocatetheabolitionofAmerica'sdemocraticinstitutions,andtheir
replacementbysomesortofpost-liberalneworder,he'snottechnicallyafascist."
MatthewFeldman,afascismexpertatTeessideUniversityintheUK,agrees."He'sstillinthedemocraticfamily,"hesays."Trumpiscalling
forethnocraticsmall-lliberalism.It'sliberalismthat'sraciallytinged.IfyouwerewhiteinapartheidSouthAfrica,youhadalltherightsand
benefitsofaliberalstate.Foryouitwasademocracy.Butitdidn'tfeelthatwayforblacksinSouthAfrica."
Columbia'sRobertPaxtonlaysoutaslightlydifferentdefinitionfromGriffin'sinhisbookTheAnatomyofFascism,focusingmoreonthe
behaviorsoffascistgovernmentsthanonthenatureoffascismasadoctrine.Still,hetooidentifiesananti-democraticcoretofascism:
Fascismmaybedefinedasaformofpoliticalbehaviormarkedbyobsessivepreoccupationwithcommunitydecline,
humiliation,orvictimhoodandbycompensatorycultsofunity,energy,andpurity,inwhichamass-basedpartyofcommitted
nationalistmilitants,workinginuneasybuteffectivecollaborationwithtraditionalelites,abandonsdemocraticlibertiesand
pursueswithredemptiveviolenceandwithoutethicalorlegalrestraintsgoalsofinternalcleansingandexternalexpansion.(p.
218)
"Democraticliberties"heremeansnotjustindividualcivillibertieswhichTrumpisclearlyinterestedintamperingwithbutthe
democraticprocessitself.Whentheoriginalfascistregimesemerged,"theexistinggovernmentsseemedtobeincapableofproviding
leadership,providingwhatwasneededforthiswoundedcountry,"Paxtontellsme,"andsofascistswereinfavoroftotallyoverthrowing
theexistingconstitution,whichwasusuallydemocraticandperceivedasweak.Thiswaswildlypopular.Wearenotinthatpositiontoday."
Trumpdefinitelyattacksthecurrentgovernmentas"weak,"whichPaxtonsaysmightbetermeda"borrowing"fromfascism.Butit'safar
cryfromtheoutrightsupportforendingdemocracythatcharacterizestruefascists.
TheUniversityofWisconsin'sStanleyPayne,authorofFascism:ComparisonandDefinitionandAHistoryofFascism,19141945,
emphasizesthatfascismisa"revolutionarynationalistproject.Notjustanationalistproject,butanationalistprojectthatisrevolutionaryand
breaksdownallthestandardsandthebarriers."Trumpandotherfar-rightpopulistsdon'tcount.
"It'swhatyou'dcallaright-wingpopulistmovement,"hesaysoftheTrumpcampaign."Theytakeconservativepositionsthatwerevery
common,say,75yearsagoor100yearsago,andnotatallcommonnow.Youcancallthemmoregenuinelyreactionaryintheir
discourse.Theygobacktoolderkindsofpoliticalandsocialvaluesthathavebeendiscarded.Thatwouldbeamoreaccurate
characterizationthancallingthemfascist."
Fascismemphasizesviolenceforitsownsake
PaynealsonotesthatTrumplacksaconnectiontothepro-violencephilosophyattheheartoffascism.ThisdatesbacktoGeorgesSorel,a
FrenchsyndicalistphilosopherwhowasreveredbyMussoliniandtheItalianfascists.Sorelpraisedviolenceasanecessarytooloftheclass
struggle."Proletarianviolenceappearsthusasaveryfineandheroicthing,"hewrites."Itisattheserviceoftheimmemorialinterestsof
civilizationitisnotperhapsthemostappropriatemethodofobtainingimmediatematerialadvantages,butitmaysavetheworldfrom
barbarism."King'sCollegeLondon'sJeremyJennings,inanintroductiontoarecenteditionofSorel'sReflectionsonViolence,writesthat
Sorelis"preparedtoequate[violence]withlife,creativity,andvirtue."
Whilefascistsobviouslydon'tshareSorel'sinterestintheclassstruggle,thisvalorizationofviolencecarriedover.Fascism,Paynesays,
requires"aphilosophicalvaluingofviolence,ofSorelianviolence.[Fascistsbelieve]thatviolenceisreallygoodforyou,thatit'sthesortof
thingthatmakesyouavital,alive,dedicatedperson,thatitcreatescommitment.Youmakeviolencenotjustapoliticalstrategybuta
philosophicalprinciple.That'suniquetofascism."
DonaldTrumpdidinspirethebeatingofahomelessmaninBoston,andaprotesterwaspunchedatoneofhisrallies,andhis
reactiontoeachcasewasappalling.Butthat'safarcryfromtheviolence-as-philosophical-commitmentthatcharacterizedfascists.Further
stillarehispronouncementsthathewantstobuildamilitarysostrong"weneverhavetouseit."
Fascistswerecertainlynevershyaboutusingmilitarypowertoinflictviolence.AsMussoliniputitinhis1932essay"TheDoctrineof
Fascism,""Fascismdiscardspacifismasacloakforcowardlysupinerenunciationincontradistinctiontoself-sacrifice.Waralonekeys
upallhumanenergiestotheirmaximumtensionandsetsthesealofnobilityonthosepeopleswhohavethecouragetofaceit."
Trump'sviewsonviolencesimplydon'tfollowinthattradition."Trumpisincitingprejudice.Hereallyiswordsdohaveconsequences,"
Feldmansays."Butthatdoesn'tmeanhe'safascist."
Fascismisanti-individualistandDonaldTrumpisanarch-individualist
UllsteinBildviaGettyImages
Acolorizedphotoofthe1936NurembergRally.
WhateverelsecanbesaidaboutDonaldTrump,heisfiercelyindividualistic.Indeed,amajorpartofhisappealcomesfromthefactthat
he'suntetheredtoanymovementorpartyorevenfinancialinterestsbesideshimself.TheRepublicanestablishmenthateshim.Hehasno
affiliatedpoliticiansatotherlevelsofgovernment.Herunsnopartyorganizationorreallyanypoliticalorganizationwithanygoalotherthan
promotinghimself,personally.AndhisargumentsabouthowtomakeAmericagreatgenerallyrelyonhisownskillshisprowessat
makingdeals,hispersonalstrength,etc.
Thisrunsinsharpcontrasttothefascisttradition,which,whileemphasizingcultsofpersonalityforleaders,isnonethelessfundamentally
concernedwiththecollective,withthestatebeingredeemedandthefascistpoliticalorganizationbeingbuilttoredeemit.Thataspectis
foreignnotjusttoTrumpbutto21stcenturyAmericansocietyingeneral."Peopleareextremelyindividualistic.Noonewoulddreamof
puttingtheminidenticallycoloredshirtsandputtingtheminregimentedyouthmovements,actionsquads,"Paxtonsays."Ifsomeonewere
proposingthatI'dtaketheparallelmoreseriously."
Feldmanconcurs,arguingthatfascismbuildsakindof"politicalreligion"inwhichthenationisconsideredareal,living,andyetsacred
thingtobereveredandprotected.Thisgoeswellbeyondmerenationalism."It'sadifferencebetweensomeonewho'spatrioticversus
someonewhoseesthenationasaliving,breathingorganicentity,"hesays."Not,'Iwantmysoccerteamtowinthismatch,'but,'Jews
andMuslimsarelikeafesteringappendixthatmustbecutout.'The300millionAmericansarelike300millioncellsinthebody.The
individualisworthnothing.It'sonecellinthebody."
ComparethatwiththewaysTrumptalksaboutimprovingAmerica:
"Iwillbuildthefinestandmostmodernveteranshospitalsintheworld."
"ThislowerratemakescorporateinversionsunnecessarybymakingAmericastaxrateoneofthebestintheworld."
"OurhighspeedInternetaccessisonly16thbestintheworldTheWorldEconomicForumrankstheUSinfrastructureasonly
the12thbestintheworld."
Thesestatementsaremuchclosertothe"Iwantmysoccerteamtowin"versionofpatriotismandmuchmoreconcernedwiththe
qualitiesofDonaldTrumptheindividualthanAmericathenation.
Fascismdoesn'treallyhavemuchtodowitheconomics
Hitlerusedhighwayprojectsasakeytooltoreduceunemployment. DasBundesarchivBild
HitleratthegroundbreakingceremonyfortheReichsautobahnonSeptember23,1933,inFrankfurt.
OnemightthinkthattherelativecomfortTrumpdisplayswithstateinterventionintheeconomy,relativetohisrivals,flirtswithfascism,
especiallywhenthistakestheformofnationalistpolicieslikemassivetariffsandimmigrationrestriction.This,fascismexpertsagree,is
aninferencetoofar."Youhaveleft-wingmovementsthathavebeenanti-immigration,"Paynesays."Fascistsdidtendtohaveanationalist
andkindofstatistandcorporatisteconomicpolicy,butallkindsofothermovementshavehadstatistandcorporatistpolicies."
Infact,mostexpertsthinkthatit'shardtoidentifyacharacteristically"fascist"economicpolicy.Itwasallsecondarytoothergoals,
notablypreparationforwar."Ofallthepolicyareas,theeconomiconeistheonewhereclassicalhistoricfascistpartiesweremostflexible,"
Paxtonsays."Theydidwhatwasexpedientinthemoment.Theyweredefendingwarveteransandattackingbigcorporationsbutquickly
droppedthatwhentheydiscoveredtheyneededthemoney.It'shardtolinkthosepeopletoanyonekindofeconomicidea.Theywould
doanythingtomaketheircountrymilitarilyreadyforwar."
That,incidentally,isabigreasonwhyNationalReviewwriterJonahGoldberg'sLiberalFascismwhichtriestotieAmerican
progressivismtohistoricalfascismissomethingofarunningjokeamongpeoplewhoactuallyknowstuffaboutfascism.Paxton,
Griffin,andFeldmanhaveallpublishedpiecesattackingand/ormockingit.Griffindescribedittomeas"areallyscurrilousworkof
revisionism,likeDavidIrving,whousesrevisionismtodenytheHolocaustandrehabilitateHitler.It'susedtoattackanyoneattemptingto
introduceawelfarestateasafascist."
Therearen'tthatmanyrealfascistsleft
MilosBicanski/GettyImages
AsupporterhoiststheNazi-inspiredflagofGoldenDawn.
There'sanargumenttobemadethatweshouldonlyuse"fascist"torefertoaclusterofmovementsindevelopedcountriesinthe1930s
and1940s,andnottrytoapplyittopresent-daypoliticsatall,thesamewaywedon'tmakeregularuseofthenow-defunct"Chartist"or
"Carlist"movementsaspresent-daypoliticalterminology.
Buttherearedefinitelysomemovementsnowadaysthatdrawdirectinspirationfrom'30/'40sfascists,andwhichfascismscholarsare
comfortablelabelingasfascist.However,theytendtobequitesmallandfringe,andtheyallgoway,wayfurtherthanDonaldTrump.
IfoundwideagreementamongscholarsthatGoldenDawn,thefar-rightpartyinGreecethatdrawsdirectinspirationfromtheNazis,is
fairlydescribedasfascist."TheemergenceofGoldenDawnwasinterestingtome,becauseineconomicbreakdownandthefeelingof
nationalhumiliation,yougetaclearspecimenofinterwarfascism,"Griffinsays."There'saracialpuritymyth,arebirthmyth,thepolitical
ritual,thecrypticsymbols.ThesymbolofGoldenDawnistheGreeksymbolofeternity.It'sdresseduptolooklikeaswastika.Beautiful.
Ifitdidn'texistyou'dhavetomakeitup."
"GoldenDawninGreeceisopenlydrawnontheNazimodel,"Paxtonconcurs."Iftheythinkthey'refascist,perhapsthere'ssomethingto
besaidforcallingthemfascist."
Butbeyondthat,theresearchersargueforlimitingthetermtofringewhitenationalistsandneo-Nazis,whoarepresentinmostsocietiesbut
whooutsideGreecehavelittlepoliticalinfluence."TobeafascistinAmerica,youhavetobeonawebsitetalkingabouthowthepresidential
systemiscontrolledbytheZionistOccupiedGovernment,"Griffinsays.FeldmancitestheBritishNationalPartyasanontrivialforcewith
clearfascistroots,butemphasizesthatit'sstillquitesmallinrealterms.Ithasnomembersofparliament.Itiswidelyloathedthroughout
theUK.
Ofcourse,manyfringefasciststhemselveslikeDonaldTrumpandviewhimasthebestthey'regoingtogetonanationalscale.They
arguehe'ssparkingabigspikeinactivityaroundandinterestinwhitenationalism."DemoralizationhasbeenthebiggestenemyandTrump
ischangingallthat,"StormfrontfounderDonBlacktoldPoliticorecently.ButthatdoesnotmakeTrumphimselfafascist.
Far-rightpopulismismuchmorecommon,andmuchmoredangerous,thanneo-fascism
SylvainLefevre/GettyImages
Frenchfar-rightleaderMarineLePen.
SoifDonaldTrumpisn'tafascist,whatishe?
Well,he'saright-wingpopulist.Andwhilefascistsarerarein2015,right-wingpopulistsarenot.Infact,it'skindofweirdthatAmerica
hasn'thadarealonebeforenow.TheUKhastheUKIndependenceParty(UKIP)FrancehasMarineLePenandtheFrontNational
GermanyhasAlternativeforGermany(AfD)andtheanti-MuslimPegidamovementSwedenhastheSwedenDemocratstheNetherlands
hasthePartyforFreedomanditsleader,GeertWilders.
ThesepartieshavealotincommonwithTrump.They'refiercelyanti-immigrationandparticularlycriticalofIslam,couchingtheir
bigotryasareasonableprecautionandstokingfearabouthomegrownterrorism.Theydrawsupportawayfrommoreestablishmentarian,
business-friendlyright-wingparties.Theytendtobeledbyindividual,charismaticfigureswithoutwhomthey'dbesubstantiallyweakened.
Theytendtobemoresympathetictowelfareprogramsandthesafetynetthantraditionalconservatives,muchasTrumphasvocally
defendedSocialSecurityagainstmoretraditionalcandidateslikeChrisChristiewhowouldcutit.
""We'recongratulatingourselvestosaythatanyonewhoengagesinthatprejudiceisfascist""
Buttheyarenotfascists.Theystillbelieveindemocracy,andtheywanttraditionalliberaldemocraticprotectionsfortheirwhitebase.
"They'restillatbottomdemocratsratherthanfascists,"Feldmansays."Ithinkthefittingtermis'illiberaldemocrats.'Theywouldgivefull
democraticrightsforwhiteChristians,orperhapsJews,butexcludetheoutgroupsofthe21stcentury:mostlyMuslimsbutalsoMexicans.
It'sreallyprejudiceagainstthem.We'recongratulatingourselvestosaythatanyonewhoengagesinthatprejudiceisfascist."
Paxtonagrees:"Idon'tthinkithelpsverymuchtousethisinflammatoryterm[fascism]aboutTrump.'Populistdemagogue'worksfine."
SodoesPayne:"TheSwedenDemocratsandLePenmovementinFrancereallyarejustright-wingmovements,inthesenseofbeing
conservativemovements.There'snothingcategoricallyfascistaboutthem.Theyareoutsidethegeneralconsensusofcenter-leftpoliticsin
thesecountries,andpeoplewanttofindspecialpejorativestoapplytothem."
Griffinnotesthatyoudon'tevenhavetolooktoEuropeforexamplesofthisbrandofright-wing,ethnocentricpopulisminaction.Justlook
atthelong,distinguishedhistoryofpopulistwhitepoliticiansinAmericaexploitinganti-blackprejudiceandwhiteethnicgrievances.Those
figuresweren'tfasciststheyweresmall-lliberaldemocratswho"wantedliberaldemocracytobeforaverysmallgroupofAmericans,"in
Griffin'swords.
Again,fascismrequiressteppingoutsidethesystemandattackingthedemocraticstructure.Aslongasthatstructureitselfishandling
illiberalattitudesonrace,thoseattitudesdon'tthemselvesconstituteafascisttrend.
SpencerPlatt/GettyImages
CouncilonAmerican-IslamicRelationsexecutivedirectorNihadAwadaddressesDonaldTrump'scommentsclaiming
AmericanMuslimscelebrated9/11.
Buttheviewsarestillilliberal.Tobevery,veryclear:DonaldTrumpisabigot.Heisaracist.HeisanIslamophobeandaxenophobe.He
profitsoffthehatredandstigmatizationoftraditionallyoppressedgroupsinAmericansociety.Thatmakeshim,andhisEuropeanpeers,
andracistsinothererasinAmericanhistory,athreattocrucialvaluesofequalityandfairtreatment,andathreattotheactualhumanbeings
he'stargetinganddemonizing.Andhe'sinparticularmainstreamingIslamophobia,whichisontheriseinrecentmonths,asseeninarecent
incidentinwhichaMuslimengineerwasharassedataFredericksburg,Virginia,civicmeeting."Imreallynotsurethoseviewsin
FredricksburgwouldbeairedwereitnotforTrumpsmainstreamingoftheseprejudices,"Feldmansays.
KevinPassmore,ahistorianattheUniversityofCardiffandauthorofFascism:aVeryShortIntroduction,putsitwell:"Forme,thepoint
aboutTrumpsproposalsisnotwhetherornottheyarefascist,'butwhetherornottheyaremoral."Andtheyveryclearlyarenot.
VoxFeaturedVideo
Senttime: 12/17/201509:50:20AM
FW:[*]Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE12-17/MORNEST]AGEMFROMDAVIDK:"WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussiaseconomic
Subject:
bloc".......VLAD-O-RAMA[MB]RUSuspendsUATradePactVladCallsShootDown'EnemyAct'VladGetsCrudeWithTR......PLUSTwo'Mu...
Subject:Fwd:[*]Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE12-17/MORNEST]AGEMFROMDAVIDK:"WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussias
economicbloc".......VLAD-O-RAMA[MB]RUSuspendsUATradePactVladCallsShootDown'EnemyAct'VladGetsCrudeWithTR......PLUS
Two'Mu...
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Thu,Dec17,2015at10:53AM
Subject:[ITEMSOFNOTE12-17/MORNEST]AGEMFROMDAVIDK:"WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussias
economicbloc".......VLAD-O-RAMA[MB]RUSuspendsUATradePactVladCallsShootDown'EnemyAct'VladGetsCrude
WithTR......PLUSTwo'MustNote'ItemsfromthePenofALEXM.....ANDPBonPutin'sAdmission,ISIS,TransitThruUA
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:FW:mylatestinPoliticoEurope:"WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussiaseconomicbloc"
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
WalterFYI.
Best,
David
http://www.politico.eu/article/whyeuropeshouldntcooperatewithrussiaseconomicbloc/
Opinion
WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussiaseconomicbloc
WorkingwiththeEurasianEconomicUnionwillunderminetheEUslegitimacy.
By
DavidJ.Kramer
12/17/15,11:57AMCET
Updated12/17/15,12:09PMCET
ThereareseveralencouragingdevelopmentsintheEuropeanUnionspositiononUkraineandRussia.Thisweek,EUleadersareexpectedto
renewsanctionsagainstRussiaforitsongoinginvasionofandaggressionagainstUkraine.Effectivenextmonth,theEUstradedealwithUkraine
willkickin,afterayearsdelaytoplacateRussia,whichpetulantlyannouncedWednesdaythatitwouldsuspenditsownfreetradeagreement
withUkrainestartingJanuary1,2016.VisafreeaccessforUkrainianstoEUcountriesisexpectedtofollowinthenottoodistantfuture.
Butamidthesepositivedevelopmentsabadideaisfloatingaround:todevelopclosetiesbetweentheEUandtheRussianledeconomicblocin
whatisknownastheEurasianEconomicUnion(EAEU).PushedbyGermanMinisterforForeignAffairsFrankWalterSteinmeierandEuropean
CommissionPresidentJeanClaudeJuncker,thisproposalshouldbekilledbeforeitgainsmomentum.
InalettertoRussianPresidentVladimirPutinlastmonth,JunckerlamentedthedeclineinrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheEU,whichtomy
regrethavenotbeenabletodevelopoverthepastyear,hewrote.
InaseparatelettertoEUTradeCommissionerCeciliaMalmstrm,Steinmeierproposedtoraisetheprospectofastarttocooperationbetween
theEUandEurasianEconomicUnion,incombinationwithapeacefulsolutioninUkraine.
PutinhasdemonstratednointerestinimprovingrelationswiththeWest.
ItisPutinsunwillingnesstopulloutofUkraineandrespecthisneighborssovereigntyandterritorialintegritythatisbehindthedeclinein
relationsJunckerlaments.PutinsrecentmilitarystrikesagainstnonISILtargetsinSyriaarenothelpingandhaverampeduptheflowof
migrantsmakingtheirwaytoEurope.PutinhasdemonstratednointerestinimprovingrelationswiththeWest.
AndyetsomeEUofficialsstillseemdeterminedtoimproverelationswithRussia.TheWestneedsRussiatofightterrorismandcooperateinthe
MiddleEast,andtoestablishtiesbetweentheEUandEAEUwouldthrowabonePutinsway,theargumentgoes.
ButtosuggestparitybetweenthetwoentitieswouldunderminethelegitimacyofthedecadesoldEUandlendcredibilitytothenascentEAEU.
AspiringcountrieschoosetojointheEuropeanUnionoftheirownfreewill,andagreetosatisfystringentcriteriaandbevotedinbyexisting
memberstates.
JoiningtheEUwasbeneficialforthestatesthatjoinedafterthefalloftheBerlinWall.OthercountriestheBalkanstatesespecially,butalso
Ukraine,Georgia,andMoldovastillseektojoin,suggestingthattheEUmustbedoingsomethingright,despiteallofitstravails.
Bycontrast,countriesintheEurasianEconomicUnionArmenia,Belarus,KazakhstanandKyrgyzstan,alongwithRussiafacedtremendous
pressurefromMoscowandjoiningishardlyanoption.RussiausestheEAEUtoexerciseinfluenceoveritsneighborsandforeclosethepossibility
ofeverjoiningtheEuropeanUnion,reflectingPutinszerosumworldview.
RussiausestheEAEUtoexerciseinfluenceoveritsneighborsandforeclosethepossibilityofeverjoiningtheEuropeanUnion
PutinpressuredthenPresidentViktorYanukovychofUkraineintoabandoninghiscountrysintentiontosignagreementswiththeEUin2013and
jointheEurasianEconomicUnioninstead.ThedecisionprecipitatedtheMaidanRevolutionandYanukovychsdeparturefrompowerafew
monthslater.
LikeUkraine,ArmeniahadplannedtosignagreementswiththeEUin2013untilittoocameundermassivepressurefromRussiatoreversethose
plansandinsteadbecomeamemberofRussiasUnion.
LegitimizingtheEurasianUnionwouldbedemoralizingtothecountriesthatwereforcedtojoin.
UnlessanduntilthePutinregimerespectsthesovereigntyandterritorialintegrityofitsneighborsandreturnsCrimeatoUkraine,theEU
leadershipshouldrefrainfromcompromisingitsvaluesbyproposingbadideastoimprovetieswithRussia.
TheballisinMoscowscourt.ProposalslikeJunckersandSteinmeiersriskleavingPutinwiththeimpressionthattheEUisovereagerfora
returntobusinessasusualandthathecanoutlasttheEUonsanctions.
TheEUleadershipshouldrefrainfromcompromisingitsvaluesbyproposingbadideastoimprovetieswithRussia.
JunckerhastaskedEuropeanUnionofficialstostudyoptionstobringtheEUandEAEUclosertogetherandsuggesteditshouldbesynchronized
withimplementationoftheMinskagreements,thepeacedealforUkraine.Lithuaniasforeignminister,LinasLinkevicius,hasvoicedstrong
objectionstoJunckersproposal.
Therewerealways,alwaysdoubts,aboutthisdialogue[betweentheEUandEAEU]formanyreasons,andIbelievetodayisnotthebesttiming,
franklyspeaking,Linkeviciussaid.Theideaofthosewhosuggestsomethinginordertoappease;again,thatisthewrongidea.OtherEU
officialsneedtojoinLinkeviciusinhisoppositiontotheEUscurrentstrategy.
JunckerandSteinmeierarenotthefirsttoproposetreatingtheEUandEAEUasequals,asawaytoextendanolivebranchtoPutin.In
anarticlemorethanayearagofortheEuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations,IvanKrastevandMarkLeonardwrote:Europemust
acknowledgethatithasfailedtounderstandpostSovietRussia.InsteadtheEUmustcoexistwithitspowerfulneighbor,perhapsbycooperating
withRussiasownintegrationproject,theEurasianUnionTheEAEUiscertainlynottheanswertoeverythingbutitcouldbeastarttowards
negotiatinganewEuropeaninstitutionalorder.
Itwasabadideaayearagoandhasnotimprovedwithage.DelayingUkrainestradedealwiththeEUbyayeartoappeaseRussiawasa
mistake,anditshouldnotbecompoundedbytreatingtheEUandEAEUasequals.Theyarewhollydissimilarentities,andnofurthertimeshould
bewastedintryingtotreatthemotherwise.
DavidJ.KramerisseniordirectorforhumanrightsanddemocracyatTheMcCainInstituteforInternationalLeadershipinWashington,DC.
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Subject:RussiatosuspendUkrainetradepact-BBC
News[ED:BlessinginDisguise....ActuallyMaybea
ConcessionByRUthatUAWillBeintheEUFreeTrade
ZoneafterJan12016]
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35114971
RussiatosuspendUkrainetradepact

GettyImages

Russia'spresidentVladimirPutinhassignedadecreethat
willexcludeUkrainefromafreetradezonethat
includesformerSovietcountriesfrom1January.
UkraineplanstojoinanEUfreetradezonefromthatdate.
MrPutincited"extraordinarycircumstancesaffectingthe
interestsandeconomicsecurity"ofRussia.
TensionsbetweenthecountrieshavebeenhighsinceRussia
annexedUkraine'sCrimeanpeninsulalastyear.
KievandtheWesthavealsoaccusedRussiaofaidingpro-
Moscowseparatistsintheeastofthecountry.
ThedecreewillannulaRussiandealwithUkrainedating
backto2011,accordingtotheRussianInterfaxnews
agency.
RussiasaystheUkraine-EUdealcouldleadtoEuropean
importscomingacrossitsownborders.
'Readytopaytheprice'
Ukraineexpectssomeeconomicdamageasaresultofthe
decree,saidPresidentPetroPoroshenko.
"Ukraineisawareoftheserestrictionsandtheexpected
damagetotheUkrainianeconomy.Butwearereadyto
paythispriceforourfreedomandourEuropeanchoice."
hesaid.
Meanwhile,theUkrainiangovernmenthassaiditwillban
tradewithCrimeain30days'time.
ButRussianeconomyministerAlexeyUlyukaevtoldthe
BBCthatRussiawasstillopentonegotiation
withbothUkraineandtheEuropeanUnion.
"Negotiationswilltakeplace,ofcourse,"MrUlyukaev
said,addingthatRussiahadn't"closedthedoor"ona
dealifthereis"goodwill"amongtheparticipants.
HesaidRussiahadproposed"athree-waysystemof
informationexchange"inUkraine,allowingtheorigin
ofproductstobetracked.
Thatproposalwasstillonthetable,hesaid,butafter1
Januarytherewouldbe"adifferenteconomicreality".
From:CGJP
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at11:05AM
Subject:RussiatosuspendUkrainetradepact[The
OriginalUKAZ....InRU]
http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001201512160035
Subject:Putin:TurkishdowningofRussianplanewas'enemyact'-CNN.com

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/17/europe/putin-annual-press-conference/index.html
PutinsaysTurkishdowningofRussianplanewasan
'enemyact'
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin
(CNN)(CNN)--RussianPresidentVladimirPutin,pugnaciousasalways,calledtheTurkishdowningofaRussianwar
plane"anenemyact"
andrejectedinternationaleffortstooustSyrianleaderBasharal-Assad.
TurkishF-16sshotdowntheRussianSu-24onNovember24,sayingtheRussianplanewasoverTurkishairspaceandignored
warningstochangecourse.OneofthetwoRussianpilotswaskilled.
PutinsaidTurkeyhadotheroptions.
"Woulditnotjusthavebeeneasierjusttopickupthephone?"PutinaskedathisannualpressconferenceinMoscow.
'Thiswasastabintheback
PutinalsoappearedtotakeaimatTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogan.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin(R)andTurkishPrimeMinisterRecepTayyipErdoganattendapressconferencein2012.
"ThereisaproblemwiththeTurkishleadership,"Putinsaid.
HecriticizedTurkishofficialsforgettingintouchwithNATOratherthanchoosingfirsttotalkwithRussia.
"Didtheythinkwe'drunaway?"Putinasked."No,we'renotthatkindofcountry."
Onthecontrary,Putinsaid,RussiahasincreaseditsaviationpresenceinSyria.
"Thiswasastabintheback,"Putinsaid."Oninterstatelevel,Idonotseetheprospectforimprovingrelations."
Putin:OnlytheSyrianpeoplecandecide
HealsorejectedinternationalefforttooustSyrianleaderBasharal-Assad.
ManyWesternleadershavesaidthatAssad,whoisblamedforthedeathsoftensofthousandsofhiscitizens,
cannotbepartofSyria'sfuture.
PutinsaysonlytheSyrianpeoplecandecidewhetherBasharal-Assadstaysofgoes.
ButPutinsaidhewouldneveragreetooutsidersdeterminingSyria'spoliticalfuture.
"OnlytheSyrianpeoplecandeterminewhoshouldgovernthemandunderwhatstandards,whatrules,"
Putinsaid.
PutindeclinedtocommentontheU.S.presidentialelection.
"Whoeveritis,wearereadyandwewanttodevelopourrelationswiththeUnitedStates,"hesaid.
"WearegoingtoworkwithanypresidenttheAmericanpeoplevotefor."
Subject:PutinpoursfreshscornonTurkeyfordowningRussianjet-BBCNews
ED:VLADCHANNELINGHISINNERTRUMP:
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasusedcrudelanguageinafuriousnewattackonTurkeyoverthedowningofa
Russiancombatjetlastmonth.
TheincidentontheSyria-Turkeyborderwasa"hostileact"butRussiawas"notthecountry"torunaway,hetoldhisannualnews
conference.
Hesaw"noprospect"oftiesimprovingwithTurkey,whichRussiahasputundersanctions,underitscurrentleaders.
"TheTurks",hesaid,had"decidedtolicktheAmericansinacertainplace".
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35118927
PutinpoursfreshscornonTurkeyfordowning
Russianjet
APMr
Putingivinghisnewsconference
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasusedcrudelanguageinafuriousnewattackonTurkeyoverthedowning
ofaRussiancombatjetlastmonth.
TheincidentontheSyria-Turkeyborderwasa"hostileact"butRussiawas"notthecountry"torunaway,hetoldhis
annualnewsconference.
RussiadeployeditsairforcetoSyriainSeptemberinsupportofPresidentBasharal-Assadandhasbeencarryingoutair
strikesonhisopponents.
ItsinterventionhasbeenheavilycriticisedbyTurkey,theUSandGulfArabstates.
MrPutinisnowintohisthirdtermaspresidentsince2000,battlinganeconomiccrisis.Criticssaycivillibertieshavebeen
steadilyerodedunderhisrule.
Heremainsoneoftheworld'smostrecognisablepoliticians,andhastoppedthelistofTheWorld'sMostPowerfulPeople
compiledbyForbesmagazineforthethirdyearrunning.
Twitter
FollowtheBBC'sSteveRosenbergonTwitterforlivecoverageofthePutinnewsconference.
MrPutinsaidTurkishofficialsshouldhavepickedupthephonetotalktoRussiaabouttheirconcernsthatairstrikesin
SyriawerehittingTurkmenrebels.
Turkey,hesaid,hadachievednothingbyshootingdownthejetwhileRussiahadbolstereditspresenceinSyriaby
deployinganti-aircraftmissiles.
OnAmerica,hesaidRussiawantedtodeveloprelations"irrespective"ofwhowouldbecomeitsnextpresident.
Onotherissuesraisedatthenewsconference,PresidentPutin
PraisedSeppBlatterandsuggestedthesuspendedheadofFifashouldbeawardedtheNobelPeacePrize
SaidRussiawasagainstdopingasit"destroyedtheprincipleofcompetitivesport",andanyonefoundguiltyshould
bepunished
DeniedRussianregulartroopsweredeployedinrebel-heldeasternUkrainebutsaidtherecouldbe"peoplethere
whowerecarryingoutcertaintasksincludinginthemilitarysphere"
PredictedeconomicgrowthinRussiathenewyearof0.7%,risingto1.9%in2017and2.4%in2018,basedon
oilat$50abarrel
MrPutinsaidhiscountry'seconomiccrisishadpeaked.
Whileoilpriceshadfallensharply,hesaid,manufacturinghadshownslightgrowthandtherewasahealthytradebalance
inagriculture.
"Oureconomydependsonoilandgasprices,weexpectedBrenttobeworth$100dollarsperbarrel,butthenitwas50,
butthiswasanoptimisticpredictiontoo,ourforecastshavetobeamendedagain,"MrPutinsaid.
"GDPisfalling,inflationis12.3%,incomes,investmentarefallingtoobutthepeakoftheeconomiccrisisisover."
Putin's'gunslinger'style
GettyImages
AnalysisbyPhilippaRoxby,BBCNews
EvernoticedthatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasanunusualwalkingstyle?Hedoesnotswinghisrightarmmuchat
allwhenhewalks-insteadallthemovementisontheleftsideofthebody,givinghimaverydistinctlop-sidedgait.
AteamofEuropeanneurologistsanalysedcountlessYouTubevideosofthepresidentandothertopRussianofficialsto
findoutwhy.
Theydiscoveredthattheyallhadasimilargait,anditisprobablylinkedtotheirKGBmilitarytrainingwhichrequiresthem
tokeeptheirweaponsclosetotheirchestorintherighthand,givingthemtimetodrawagunonanunexpectedenemy.
Asaresult,onlytheleftarmmovesfreely.
SoPresidentPutinofficiallyhasa"gunslinger'sgait"-butdoctorsshouldbeawarethatareducedrightarmswingcanalso
beanearlysignofParkinson'sdiseasetoo,theBritishMedicalJournalresearchsays.
MrPutinisknownforhismarathonperformancesathisnewsconferences,wherehefrequentlyuseshard-hitting,colourful
language.
InaninterviewwithstateTVonWednesdayevening,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaidRussiawasatargetina
"biginformationwar[which]hasbeenwagedforalongtime".
Lastyear,MrPutin'sannualnewsconferencelastedthreehoursand10minutes,whiletherecordwassetin2008atfour
hours40minutes.
From:StepanKaczurak<kaczurak@verizon.net>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at11:25PM
Subject:MotylonforgettingUkraine'shistory....[PLUSVovochka]
To:
December16,20154:57PMSubject:MotylonforgettingUkraine'shistory
OnNovember25,2010,whileonastatevisittoKyiv,Israel'sPresident
ShimonPeresstatedthat,"IfUkrainiansweretoaskmeforadvice,I
wouldsay:forgethistory."Comingfromthepresidentofacountry
steepedinhistory,thecommentwasatfirstglancebizarre.Directedat
acountryembroiledinseeminglyendlesscontentiousdebatesoverits
history,theadvicewasatsecondglanceintriguing.Butcanhistorybe
forgotten?Andwouldforgettingbedesirable,evenifpossible?Andwhat
wouldforgettingmeanforacountrysuchasUkraine,whichhopestoput
itsSovietpastbehinditwhilediscoveringtheneglectedpagesofits
history?
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/should-ukraine-forget-its-history
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALEXANDERMOTYL:VOVOCHKA:TheTrueConfessionsofVladimirPutin'sBest
FriendandConfidant
"ThisbookislongoverdueasendupofRussianPresidentVladimir
Putin,themachohorsemanandjudomastersooftenphotographedwith
ripplingpecs.Thereality,saysthiscomicnovel,isquitethe
opposite."--MichaelJohnson,TheAmericanSpectator
http://spectator.org/articles/64663/russia%E2%80%99s-macho-leader-exposed
INTERVIEWWITHA.MOTYLABOUTVOVOCHKA:
http://www.e-ir.info/2015/12/08/on-putin-politics-and-popular-culture-an-interview-with-alexander-j-motyl/
ToorderVOVOCHKA:
http://www.amazon.com/Vovochka-Confessions-Vladimir-Putins-Confidant/dp/1681142015/ref=sr_1_1?
s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1444815786&sr=1-1&keywords=motyl+vovochka
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:UkraineatransitcountryforIslamicStatefighters,officialssay
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
Thiscouldplayeitherway--areasontostepupaidtoUkraine(includingmilitary)toclosetheborderwithRussiaorareasontobuild
paranoiaaboutUkraineasPutinbegins"anti-terrorist"militaryactionsinUkraine.
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/kyiv-post-plus/ukraine-a-transit-country-for-islamic-state-fighters-officials-say-404387.html
Subject:PutinadmitsRUtroopsinUA
Walter,
WiththeseemingacknowledgementbyUAthatISISisusingUAasarouteintoEurope,Putincouldbesettingthestageforjustifying
RUtroopsinUAbyclaiminghe'sfightingISISwhereverhefindthem.AccusingtheUAgovernmentofeithercomplicityor
ineptnesswithISISwouldbealogicalnextstepforPutinatthisstage,furtherjustifyinghismilitaryactivityinUA,uptoandincluding
regimechange.ThiswouldbeatoughPRchallengeforUAanditcouldgaintractioninthecurrent"anti-terrorist'mediahysteria.
Peter
Senttime: 12/04/201503:56:24PM
FW:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....[FP]Pomerantsev--
Subject:
Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
Sent:Friday,December04,20156:54AM
Subject:Fwd:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....[FP]
Pomerantsev--Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
Date:Fri,Dec4,2015at9:53AM
Subject:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....
[FP]Pomerantsev--Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:WP,AI,RFE/RL,WoE
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
TheWashingtonPostop-ed
AllyingwithPutinagainsttheIslamicStatewouldbeadevilsbargain
ByOleksandrTurchynovDecember3at8:10PM(December4printeditiontitledADevilsBargaininSyria)
OleksandrTurchynovissecretaryoftheNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncilofUkraine.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/allying-with-putin-against-the-islamic-state-would-be-a-devils-
bargain/2015/12/03/c0deeaca-9871-11e5-b499-76cbec161973_story.html
WinstonChurchillwasundernoillusionsabouthiswartimealliancewithJosephStalin.IfHitlerinvadedhell,I
wouldmakeatleastafavorablereferencetothedevilintheHouseofCommons,heremarkedtoanaide.This
wasnotabondforgedinfriendshipandtrust.Itwasatemporarypartnershipofnecessityinthefaceofa
commonenemy.AssoonasNaziGermanywasdefeated,therealityofStalinsintentionsbecameclear.
PromisestoholdfreeelectionsinthecountriesunderSovietoccupationwerebroken,andtheWestspentthe
next40yearstryingtocontainthethreattheSovietUnionposed.
ThisneedstobekeptinmindaswecontemplateeventsinSyria.Intheaftermathofthehorrificterrorist
attacksinParisandthebombingofaRussianplaneovertheSinai,itisunderstandablethatWestern
governmentsshouldwanttoformthebroadestpossibleinternationalcoalition,includingwithRussia,todefeat
thoseresponsible.Butsharedgriefisnotthesameassharedinterests.CooperationwithRussiainthefight
againsttheIslamicStateneedstobecarefullyweighedagainstseveralbiggerforeignpolicyissues.
TheareaswhereRussiasinterestsinSyriaconflictwiththoseoftheWestremainatleastassignificantasthose
wheretheyoverlap.WhereastheWestspriorityisdestroyingtheIslamicState,Russiasprimaryaimisto
keeptheBasharal-Assadregimeinpower.Sofar,alargemajorityofRussianairstrikesinSyriahavebeen
directedagainstnon-IslamicStatetargets,includingmoderategroupssuchastheWestern-backedFreeSyrian
Armythatarehelpingfighttheterroristgroupontheground.Thesestrikeshavealsoexacerbatedtheflowof
SyrianrefugeestowardEurope.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasdirectinterestsinSyriaasaregionalally,amarketforRussianmilitary
exportsandabasefortheRussiannavysMediterraneanfleet.Buthisapproachisinfluencedbywider
considerations,oneofwhichistopreventanotherauthoritarianregimefromsuccumbingtothedemandsofits
people.AswewellknowinUkraine,Putinisdeterminedtoresistthetideofglobaldemocraticchangeand
willingtouseviolenceagainstothercountriestostopit.Heseesfreedomasathreattohisownholdonpower
andanindicationofadvancingWesterninfluence.RussianpolicyinSyriaisframedbyanattitudeofstrategic
hostilitytowardtheWestanditsvalues.
WhiletheKremlinpretendstobefightingterrorisminSyria,Russiaitselfmeritsdesignationasastatesponsor
ofterrorism.ItsaggressionagainstUkrainehascostmorethan8,000lives,includingtheindiscriminate
shellingofcivilianareasandthemurderofpoliticalopponentscarriedoutbyitsspecialforcesandRussian-
sponsoredterrorists.ItwasaRussian-suppliedBukmissilethatreportedlyshotdownMalaysiaAirlinesFlight
17inJulyoflastyear,resultinginthelossof298innocentlives.Morethan1.5millionpeopleinUkrainehave
beeninternallydisplacedasaresultofillegalRussianaggression.TheRussianstatehasshownitselfwillingto
carryouttheassassinationofregimecritics,bothathomeandabroad,usingterroristmethods.
YetnoneofthiswillpreventRussiafromtryingtoextractadvantagefromthewarinSyria.Putinisamasterof
tacticalopportunism,andinthepasttwoweeksRussianjetsinSyriahavebeendroppingbombsinscribedwith
themessageForParisinagestureofapparentsolidarity.PositionedasafriendoftheWestinitsfightagainst
terrorism,Putinhopestosecuretherelationshiphehasalwayswantedonethatsetsasideinternationallaw
andtherightsofsmallernationsinfavorofgreat-powerdealmakingandtheprinciplethatmightisright.
RussiahasalreadyinvokedthegrandallianceagainstHitlerasaprecedentforfightingtheIslamicState.Bein
nodoubtthatitwillalsodemandanewYaltaasthepriceofcooperationnow.InhisrecentspeechtotheUnited
Nations,Putinpraisedthepost-WorldWarIIagreementthatbeganthedivisionofEuropebyrecognizingthe
territorialgainsStalinachievedundertheNazi-Sovietpact.ThetownofYalta,ofcourse,nowliesinRussian-
occupiedCrimeaasapoignantreminderthatthepastliveswithus.AllPutinneedsisfortheWesttodrop
sanctionsandaccepthislandgrabinUkraineforthecircletobecomplete.
TheWestneedstobehardheadedinitsassessmentoftherisksinvolvedindoingbusinesswithRussiaover
Syriaandfirmaboutthelimitsofanycooperation.Islamistterrorismisamajorthreatandhasthecapacityto
causedeathandsufferingonahugescale.Itmustbedealtwithasamatterofurgentpriority.Yetthegreatest
long-termthreatstoapeacefulandliberalworldorderremainRussianterrorismandthedeterminationofa
revanchistKremlintoimposeanewsphereofinfluenceandsystematicallytrytodestabilizeitsneighborhood,
notonlyinUkrainebutalsointheCaucasus,theBalticStates,PolandandtheBalkans.Thecivilizedworldmust
defeatterrorism,notselectivelybutinallformsandonallfronts.
AmericanInterest
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/12/04/u-s-policy-to-ukraine-in-need-of-urgent-fix/
BattleforUkraine
USPolicytoUkraineinNeedofUrgentFix
DavidJ.Kramer
AmericaspaltrymilitaryaidtoKyivissendingthewrongmessagetoUkraineandtoPutin.
U.S.policytowardUkraineisinurgentneedofanoverhaul,andPresidentObamahimselfneedstoleadthecharge.Thefront-
pagestoryinTuesdaysWashingtonPostthatthenon-lethalassistancetheUnitedStateshasbeenprovidingtoUkraineis
outdatedandfallingapartunderscoredthatthereisnotimetowasteinfixingsomeseriousproblems.Threesuchproblemscanand
shouldbefixedquickly.
LetsstartwiththePostreport.AccordingtoreporterThomasGibbons-Neff,TheUnitedStateshasdeliveredmorethan$260
millioninnon-lethalmilitaryequipmenttohelpthegovernmentofUkraineinitsfightagainstaRussian-backedinsurgency,butsome
oftheU.S.-suppliedgearmeanttoprotectandtransportUkrainianmilitaryforcesislittlemorethanjunk.Gibbons-Neffcited,for
example,Humveesthatarenearlythirtyyearsold.
ProvidingsuchequipmenthasbeenablowtoUkrainiansmoraleandAmericasstandinginUkraine.IftheAmericansaregoing
tosendusequipment,dontsendussecondhandstuff,Gibbons-NeffquotesoneUkrainianspecialforcescommander.The
Pentagonshouldbeabletofindequipmentandmaterielthatismoremodernandingoodshape.Thisproblemshouldbeeasyto
address.
ThesecondproblemprovidinglethaldefensiveweaponstoUkrainetohelpitfendoffVladimirPutinsaggressionisharder,
becauseitwouldrequirethePresidenttoreversehimself.Congresshaspassedseveralpiecesoflegislationbylargebipartisan
majoritiescallingfortheprovisionoflethalarmstoUkraine,andvirtuallyeverymemberoftheCabinetaswellashisVice
PresidentsupportsuchastepPresidentObamaistheloneholdout.PresidentPetroPoroshenkoandotherseniorUkrainian
officialshaverequestedshoulder-mountedJavelinanti-tankmissilesandothersystemstohelpthwartfurtherRussianadvancesinto
Ukrainianterritory.Obamahasexplainedhisoppositiontotheirrequestsbywarningthatsuchamovewouldtriggerescalationby
Russia.AmorelikelyresultwouldbethatPutinwouldthinktwicebeforelaunchingfurtherintoUkraineinthefaceofaUkrainian
fightingforcethathasbeenbeefedupbyAmericananti-tankweapons.
Itsworthrecallingthe1994BudapestMemorandum,inwhichUkraineagreedtosurrenderthenuclearweaponsitinheritedfrom
thecollapseoftheUSSRinexchangeforapledgefromtheothersignatoriesRussia,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStates
thattheywouldupholdandrespectUkrainessovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.Whilenotaformaltreaty,theBudapest
MemorandumplayedakeyroleinreducingtheproliferationofweaponsofmassdestructionbecauseUkraineliveduptoitsend
ofthedeal.Russia,bycontrast,hasnotbyinvadingitsneighborandannexingCrimea.Weshouldliveuptoourendofthedealby
complyingwiththeUkrainianpleasfordefensiveweaponstheyarenotaskingforU.S.troopsonthegroundbutthemeansby
whichtodefendthemselves.
ThethirdproblemisthefactthatObamahasnotsetfootinUkraineoncesincebecomingPresident,thoughhedidtravelthere
oncewhilehewasintheSenate.ThebiggestchallengeinEuropeindecadeshasbeenRussiasinvasionofitsneighbor,acountry
of45millionpeople.Inrecognitionofthat,mostWesternleadershavevisitedKyivatleastoncetoshowUkrainianstheirsupport.
CouldObamanothavetackedonaquickvisitwhileinEurope,forexampleafterhisrecenttriptoParis?
Nextweek,VicePresidentBidenwillbemakinghisfifthvisittoUkraine,buthisengagement,whilelaudable,isnosubstitutefor
much-neededengagementbyhisboss.SinceRussiasinvasionofUkrainealmosttwoyearsago,PresidentObamahasmetwith
PutinmoretimesthanhehaswithPoroshenko,despiteassertinginJanuaryinhisStateoftheUnionspeechthatheis
leadingeffortstoisolateRussia.AnObamavisittoKyivtodemonstratesolidaritywiththeUkrainianpeoplewouldbeahuge
boosttoUkrainethereis,afterall,nothinglikeAirForceOnelandinginonescountryandallthatcomeswithit.
TheObamaAdministrationdeservescreditforthesanctionsithasimposedagainstthePutinregime,thoughmoreshouldbedone
topreempt,notreactto,Putinsaggression.TheAdministrationhasrightlypressedUkrainianleaderstogetseriousaboutfighting
corruption,andithasprovidedseveralbilliondollarsinassistancethroughloans,thoughitcoulddomore(andtheEuropeans
shouldbedoingmuchmore).WeshouldalsoprovidemuchmorehumanitarianassistanceforthoseUkrainiansdisplacedand
affectedbyRussiasinvasion.
TheproblemsidentifiedaboveareseriousandbadlyhurtingtheU.S.imageinUkraine.TheyalsosendthewrongsignaltoPutin:
thatwearenotpayingsufficientattentiontoUkraineatatimewhenitneedsusmorethanever.ThePresidentshouldorderhis
teamtoproperlyequipUkraineandreversehisownobjectionstoprovidinglethalassistance.Itwouldbebestifheannounced
suchcorrectionsinpolicyinpersoninKyiv.
DavidJ.KramerisseniordirectorforHumanRightsandDemocracyattheMcCainInstituteforInternationalLeadership.
WindowonEurasia[PaulGoble]
PutinWorriedaboutStabintheBackHisOwnandatHome,UkrainianCommentatorSays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/putin-worried-about-stab-in-back-his.html
CrimeanTatarsFormNewOrganizationtoPressforRestorationofAutonomywithinUkraine
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/crimean-tatars-form-new-organization-to.html
DespiteMoscowsCharges,MuslimsinUkraineFightingforUkraine,NotforISIS
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/despite-moscows-charges-muslims-in.html
From:ForeignPolicy<email@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:FlashPoints
B a y n a z a r M o h a m m a d N a z a r w a s a h u s b a n d a n d a f a t h e r o f f o u r - - a n d a p a t i e n t k i l l e d d u r i n g t h e a t t a c k o n t h e M S F h o s p i t a l i n K u n d u z . T h i s i s h i s s t o r y .
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Friday,December4,2015 SUBSCRIBETO
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FollowUs:
ARGUMENT

TheTVvs.theFridge
byPeterPomerantsev,NathanGamester
InRussia,economicdeclineisn'ttranslating

intodissatisfactionwithPutin.Here'swhy.

MORE

REPORT

RussiaPoursHotOilonWounded
TiesWithTurkey
byKeithJohnson

AweekafterTurkeyshotdownaRussianjet,
Moscowstruckbackwithsharpallegations
thatAnkaraisunderwritingtheIslamicStates
illicitoilbusiness.Whatonceseemeda
beautifulfriendshipisnowincreasingly
vicious.

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TakeThat,Vladimir!

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PRIVACY
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POLICY

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Subject:PutinsWaronTerrorCouldBackfire
PutinsWaronTerrorCouldBackfire
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/putins-war-on-terror-could-backfire/
TherecanbenodoubtthattheRussiansarewinningtheMiddleEastpropagandawar.ButitsnotjusttheMarxistfar-leftthatis
willingtobelievewhateverVladimirPutinandhismouthpieceRussiaToday(RT)aresaying.Someconservativesandself-
describedTeaPartyleadershavealsoacceptedthedisinformationtheRussiansareputtingout,eventotheextentofaffirmingthe
RussianpresidentasaChristianstatesmanleadingtheglobalwaronterror.

ConsiderChuckBaldwinspiece,RootinforPutin,whichinsiststhatRussiasVladimirPutinistheonlyonefightingaJustWar
intheMiddleEastrightnow.Baldwin,aChristianpastordedicatedtopreservingthehistoricprinciplesuponwhichAmericawas
founded,wasthepresidentialcandidatein2008oftheConstitutionParty,agroupassociatedwiththelateconservativeicon
HowardPhillips.
ItissimplyamazingthatanyconservativewouldinsistthatPutin,who,despitedroppingthecommunistlabelisstillalliedwithIran,
CommunistChina,NorthKoreaandCuba,issomehowdoingtherightthinginSyria,along-timeSoviet/Russianclientstate.What
PutinisdoingisentirelyconsistentwithwhattheSovietsalwaysdid.Theyaretryingtosaveaclientstatefromwhatstartedoutas
apopularrebellion.
Inhiscolumn,BaldwinwentontolabelBarackObama,DavidCameronofBritain,BenjaminNetanyahuofIsrael,KingSalmanof
SaudiArabia,andRecepTayyipErdoganofTurkeyasinternationalgangsters.
ItistruethatObama,throughafewofAmericasAraballies,hasbeensupportingthecauseofsomejihadistsandterroristsin
theMiddleEast.SaudiArabiaandQatarhavebeenimplicatedinthesedangerousschemes,oneofwhichculminatedinthe
BenghazimassacreoffourAmericansinLibya.ThatwasatreasonousactionthatshouldsinkHillaryClintonspresidential
campaignandcouldhavejustifiedimpeachmentchargesagainstObamahimself.Mrs.ClintonwasObamasSecretaryofStateat
thetime.
TheseoperationsintheMiddleEasthavebeencharacterizedbyformerCIAofficerClareLopezoftheCitizensCommissionon
BenghaziasswitchingsidesintheWaronTerror.
ButtheideathatPutinhascleanhandsintheMiddleEastisabsolutelyridiculous.ConsideringthathewasaSovietKGBspyand
actuallyheadedoneoftheKGBssuccessoragencies,theideathatPutinhassuddenlyhadaDamascusRoadconversionto
Christianityissimplyludicrous.HisforeignpolicyisverysimilartothatoftheoldSovietUnion.
Sincetheforeignpolicyhasmostlyremainedthesame,Sovietfinancingandsponsorshipofinternationalterroristnetworks,many
ofthemlinkedtoArabandMuslimgroups,alsohavetobetakenintoconsiderationhere.Itisreasonabletoassumethatthe
RussianshavemaintainedatleastpartsofthesenetworksforapurposethatweseeinthebackingofBasharAssadinSyria.
Indeed,writerandresearcherChristianGomezhastracedtherootsofISIStotheIslamicRevivalParty,createdbytheKGB,
duringthefinaldaysoftheoldSovietUnion.U.S.ArmyColonelSteveWarren,aspokesmanforCombinedJointTaskForce
OperationInherentResolve,hasnotedthattheRussiansaredoinglittleinSyriatofightISISterroristsandthatEverythingthey
[theRussians]aredoingistosupportAssad,tokeepAssadinpower.Inotherwords,PutiniscontinuingacleverSoviet-style
strategythatseekstomaintainAssadinpowerwhileusingISISforhisownpurposes.Oneofthosepurposes,asreflectedinRT
propaganda,istomakePutinlooklikeaterroristfighter.
BaldwinisnttheonlypersonalityontherightdupedbyPutinandhispropagandamachine.TheCEOofagroupcallingitself
simplytheTeaPartyhasdistributedanarticleclaimingthatRussiahasproducedstunningphotographicevidencethatISISoil
wasbeingsmuggledintoTurkeyonanindustrialscale.
Thestunningphotographicevidenceshowsnothingofthesort.NatashaBertrandofBusinessInsiderexaminedtheRussianmaps
andfoundthatthethreemainroutestheRussiansclaimISIShadallegedlybeenusingtotransportillicitoilintoTurkeyarenot
primarilycontrolledbytheIslamicState.TurkishPresidentErdoganhascountered:Whoisbuyingoil(fromISIS)?Letmesayit.
GeorgeHaswani,holderofaRussianpassportandaSyriannational,isoneofthebiggestmerchantsinthisbusiness.Henoted
thattheU.S.TreasuryDepartmentimposedsanctionsonHaswani,whowasalsoplacedonanEUsanctionslist,forservingas
middlemanforoilpurchasesbytheSyrianregimefromtheISISgroup.
IfyouhaventheardaboutthesanctionsontheindividualsandnetworksprovidingsupporttoSyriaandfacilitatingSyrianoil
purchasesfromISIS,youareavictimoftheslickpropagandathatisbeingspreadaroundtheworldbysuchoutletsasRT.Itisa
factthattheRussianclaimsagainstTurkeyaretakingprecedence,evenintheWesternmedia,overthefactsontheground,as
determinednotonlybytheU.S.TreasurybuttheU.S.Army.ColonelWarrensaid,WeflatlyrejectanynotionthattheTurksare
somehowworkingwithISIL,hesaid.Thatispreposterous.
TheTeaPartyarticleabouttheRussianclaimswaslifteddirectlyfromtheInfowars.comsiteofRussianapologistAlexJones,
whojustscoredamajorinterviewwithGOPpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrump.NorespectableTeaPartygroupshouldhave
anythingtodowithAlexJones,whodefendedtheRussianinvasionofitsformerrepublicGeorgiain2008.Trumpsdecision
toappearonhisshowwasextremelyfoolish.HeapparentlywasnotawarethatJonespromotesclaimsthatactualterroristattacks,
suchastheBostonMarathonbombingscarriedoutbytwoMuslimsfromRussia,werefalseflagsperpetratedbyU.S.police
andlawenforcementagencies.HiswebsiteranaVoiceofRussiastoryclaimingthedeadandwoundedwereactorsplastered
withfakeblood.
RatherthantreatPutinasagoodguyorally,GOPpresidentialcandidateSenatorMarcoRubio(FL)arguesthatTurkeyisa
memberofNATOandanallythatdeservesthefullbackingoftheUnitedStates.HenotedthattheRussiansweretargeting
Turkmen-populatedpocketsofnorthernSyriaratherthanterritorycontrolledbyISISandthatMostRussianmilitarystrikes
sincetheendofSeptemberhavebeennon-ISIStargets,includingmanycivilianareas,revealingthatRussiadoesnotshareour
interestinconfrontinganddefeatingISISbutinsteadisintentonproppinguptheAssadregime.
BeforeheassumedtheroleasaleaderoftheSunnisintheMiddleEast,mobilizingforcesagainstShiteIranandSyria,Erdogan
wasknownforhisanti-Sovietviews.Indeed,hewasananti-communistinhisyouth.AsaresultofRussiasincreasedmilitary
involvementinSyria,heseemstohaveawakenedtothefactthatPutinhasreturnedtohisSovietrootsandthatTurkeysfuturelies
withNATOandtheWest.TurkeyjoinedNATO,originallyconceivedasananti-Sovietmilitaryalliance,in1952.
AssumingErdoganisanIslamistofsomekind,assomeconservativescontend,itmightmakestrategicsensefortheWesttoback
himforthatreasonaloneinhisbattlewithRussia.Afterall,mostofRussias14millionMuslimsareSunnis.RTitself
recentlyhighlightedhowthousandsofMuslimshadgatheredincentralMoscowtowitnesstheopeningofoneofthebiggest
mosquesinEurope.TheceremonywasattendedbyPutinandErdogan,whohadbeenconsideredtobeonfriendlyterms.
TheirrelationshipturnedsourafterTurkeyshotdowntheRussianwarplane,anditseemstobedeterioratingfurther.
AsnotedbyIlyaArkhipovofBloombergBusiness,Putinusedhisannualstate-of-the-nationaddresstoattackTurkeyand
Erdoganinverypersonalandreligiousterms.Putinsaid,OnlyAllahknowswhytheydidthis.AnditseemsthatAllahdecidedto
punishtherulingganginTurkeybystrippingitofcommonsenseandreason.AnalystTimothyAshtoldBloombergthatThe
religiousanglebeingusedbyPutinisunlikelytogodownwellintheregion,whereErdoganisstillseenasadefenderoftheSunni
faith.
Oneobserverhasnoted,inregardtoRussianinvolvementinArab/MuslimterrorismandnowISIS,thatthemonsterthatthe
USSRcreatedmayhavegrowntoobig,andthatitmayeventuallyattackitscreator.InthecaseofTurkey,Putinisfacinga
Muslimproblemofhisownmaking.
Senttime: 12/14/201503:31:47PM
FW:[EVENINGREAD][MB]DailyB:PutinPutsHeroicFemalePilotonTrial......[MB]EUresistsRussianoverturesonUkraine........ODon
Subject:
HelsinkiCommission[CrimeaIssue].......OnFR&UKHappeningsfromPB........ANDYFonRU'subversionops'inOdessa...
Sent:Monday,December14,20153:25PM
Subject:Fwd:[EVENINGREAD][MB]DailyB:PutinPutsHeroicFemalePilotonTrial......[MB]EUresistsRussianovertureson
Ukraine........ODonHelsinkiCommission[CrimeaIssue].......OnFR&UKHappeningsfromPB........ANDYFonRU'subversionops'in
Odessa...
Date:Mon,Dec14,2015at6:24PM
Subject:[EVENINGREAD][MB]DailyB:PutinPutsHeroicFemalePilotonTrial......[MB]EUresistsRussianovertureson
Ukraine........ODonHelsinkiCommission[CrimeaIssue].......OnFR&UKHappeningsfromPB........ANDYFonRU
'subversionops'inOdessa[mightatsomepointbetimetocallthem'terroristactivity']
Date:Mon,Dec14,2015at11:15AM
Subject:PutinPutsHeroicFemalePilotonTrial-TheDailyBeast
To:mmshevchuk@aol.com,Nadia<ronnadialiteplo@hotmail.com>,RoxyWacyk<roxy.wacyk@gmail.com>
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/12/13/putin-puts-heroic-female-pilot-on-trial.html
HOT POTATO
12.13.159:00PMET
PutinPutsHeroicFemalePilotonTrial
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinmaywellregretthedecisiontoputNadiyaSavchenkoontrialformurder.

MOSCOWTheRussiantrialofaUkrainianpilot,NadiyaSavchenko,wasinterruptedforabreakbecausetheprosecutorfeltsick,RIA
NovostireportedonWednesday.Theaccused,ontheotherhand,wasdoingjustfine.Inthedefendantsglassbox,the34-year-oldworeablack
shirtwithawhitetrident,Ukrainesnationalsymbol,andsaidshewasreadytoproceedanytimewithatrialinwhichshesaccusedofmurdering
twoRussianjournalists.Ifconvicted,hersentencecouldbeanywherefromeightyearstolife.
Itsbeenalong,toughyearforSavchenko,butalsoforherRussianaccusers.Shehasbeenonmultiplehungerstrikes,evenonadryone,
withoutwater.HeronlyfamilyinthecourtroomonWednesday,youngersisterVera,wasalsounderanaccusationforshoutingatajudge.But
Savchenkolookedcalm,anythingbutbeaten.ShesmiledwhenshesawVera,whoappearedasawitnesswearingthesameshirtasSavchenkos,
butwhitewithablacktridentonherchest.Veraenters,Ukrainiananthemplays,Savchenkojokedhappily,greetinghersisterandignoring
thegloomyfacesofsecurityofficers,accordingtoatranscriptofthetrialpublishedbythewebsiteMediaZona.
EverythingaboutNadiyaSavchenkoisastatement,thedeclarationofafightergoingtowar:Thestrongpostureofatrainedsoldier,thefirmlook
inherpiercingblueeyes,hercomments,evenherjokes.Savchenko,anationalheroinherhomecountry,anenemyanddefendantinRussia,just
keepssmiling,andthanksreportersandforeigndiplomatsforcoming.
BeforetheRussia-UkrainianconflictinCrimeaandDonbass,Savchenkowaslittleknowninthewiderworld,butUkraineknewaboutherasits
onlywomanveteranofthewarinIraq,whereUkrainiantroopsservedaspartofthecoalitionofthewilling.
Then,inJune2014,byheraccount,shewascapturedwhileservingineasternUkraineandturnedovertoRussianofficials.Theyaccusedherof
involvementinthedeathoftwoRussianjournalists.Thearrestmadeherworldfamous.
UkrainianactivistsandpoliticiansputSavchenkoontheirflags,electedherinabsentiatothestateparliament.Toppoliticiansdiscussedher
fate.ThisweekSavchenkoslawyerwerepubliclydebatingthebestwaytouseU.S.VicePresidentJosephR.Bidentonegotiateaprisoner
exchange.SpeakinginKiev,BidenpromisedhewouldtelltheworldaboutNadiyaSavchenko.
DetainedUkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiyaSavchenkostandsinsidethedefendant'scageduringherhearingintheBasmannydistrictcourtin
MoscowonNovember11,2014.(VasilyMaximov/AFP/GettyImages)
Fromthefirstdaysofherarrestlastyear,thosewhoknewSavchenkowereimpressedbyherstamina.Inhersolitarycell,Savchenkoworkedon
herautobiographyandfoldedorigamianimalsforRussianorphanages.
Subject:EUresistsRussianoverturesonUkraine-BBC[TOOURY/ECTeam&CGJP]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,mmshevchuk@aol.com
EUresistsRussianoverturesonUkraine
ReutersSanctionsnowtargetsometopaidesofMrPutininRussia'spowerfulSecurityCouncil
WhenRussiabeganairstrikesinSyriainSeptember,itsaiditwasfightingterrorism,targetingso-calledIslamicState(IS)
fighters.ButMoscowalsohadgeopoliticsinmind.
Andwhileitclearlyhadotherforeignpolicygoals,couldMoscownowbeusingitsinvolvementinSyriaasleverageoverEU
sanctionslinkedtothecrisisinUkraine?
DiplomatsinBrusselsareadamantthatthat'sjustwhatRussiaisdoing.
SinceISclaimedresponsibilityfortheParisterrorattacksandthedowningofaRussianairlineroverSinai,EUofficialssayMoscow
hasbeenworkingdiligentlytotrytoconvinceindividualmemberstatesthatnowisthetimetoengagewithRussiaandendits
isolationlinkedtothewarovereasternUkraine.
TheofficialcollectivepositioninBrussels,though,isthattherewillbenotrade-offofissues.
TheblocwillworkhardtoengageRussiaonmanyissueswithoutgivingupits"veryclearposition"onUkraine.
Andthatwillchangeonlywhenallpartsoftheso-calledMinskpeaceagreementareimplemented.
Butinthecurrentclimatethatismoreafancifulaspirationthanarealisticdesire.
Flexibleapproach
ItisnearlytwoyearssincethecrisisinUkrainebeganandtheconflictintheeastgoeson,eventhoughthefiringofartilleryis
sporadicandrestrictedtospecificpartsofthefrontline.
Ninethousandisaconservativeestimateofhowmanypeoplehavebeenkilled.
GettyImagesThousandsofpeoplehavediedinUkrainesincethecrisisbegan
EUsanctionsonMoscowareduetoberenewedthismonthforanothersixmonthsandfewinBrusselsthinkthatgettingthe
necessaryEuropeanconsensuswillbeaproblem.
EUsanctionsonRussia
Russianstatebanksareexcludedfromraisinglong-termloansintheEU
Exportsofdual-useequipmentformilitaryuseinRussiaarebanned
FutureEU-Russiaarmsdealsarebanned
TheEUwillnotexportawiderangeofoilindustrytechnology
Threemajorstateoilfirmsaretargeted:Rosneft,TransneftandGazpromNeft,theoilunitofgasgiantGazprom,with
limitsplacedontheiraccesstocapitalmarkets
DozensofseniorRussianofficialsandseparatistleadersarenowsubjecttoWesternassetfreezesandtravelbans
Howfardosanctionsgo?
However,windtheclockonafurthersixmonths,whenthesanctionswillbeupforrenewalagain,anditishardertopredictwhatthe
thinkingofEuropeangovernmentswillbe.
EPARussianbanksnowhavemuchlessaccesstoWesterncapital
Foravarietyofeconomicandpoliticalreasons,southernEuropeannationsfavouramoreflexibleapproach.
Ofthetwomainplayers,FrancewaversmorethanGermany.
Corruption
Europe'ssofarunflinchingstanceoverUkraine-andtheallegedinvolvementofRussiainthewarthere-ispartlyexplainedbya
principledprotectionofUkraine'ssovereignty.
However,theunprecedentedEUinvestmentinthecountry,bothinfinancialandpoliticalterms,meansEurope'sreputationisat
stake.
AhugeteamofEuropeanpoliticians,diplomatsandbureaucratsiscarryingoutwhatitcalls"impressive"reformstooverturnthe
Soviet-erahangoverofbureaucracy,poorgovernanceandensuingcorruption.
SinceUkraine'sformerPresidentViktorYanukovychfledthecountryinFebruary2014afterviolentdemonstrationsinKiev,Ukraine's
newEuropean-leaningpoliticalclasshasbeenonthereceivingendofmorethan7bn(5bn$7.7bn)fromtheEUintheformof
loansandfinancialsupport.
AFPMrYanukovychsaidhehadfearedforhislifewhenhefledKiev
Ifeverythinggoestoplan,thatfigurewillhaverisentonearly13bnoverthenextfewyears.
However,theEU'ssupportisconditional:Ukrainehastodeliveritssideofthedeal.
Takecorruption.TheUkrainiangovernmenthasestablishednewanti-corruptionbodiesbutinrealitytheyarestillnotupand
running.
EUofficialswanttoseerealresults.Forexample,theyexpectproperandtransparentinvestigationsintocasesoffraud,
embezzlementandothertypesofcorruption.
GettyImagesTheleaderofthecentre-leftpartyUkrop,GuennadiKorban,wasarrestedinOctober,sparkingprotestsfromhis
supporters
InUkraine,justicecannolongerbeaquestionofbuyingofftherightprosecutororjudge.
SotheEuropeanCommissionispushingthroughreformsofthejudiciary-butitcannotbereinventedovernight.
Currentofficialsneedtobevetted,corruptonesfired,andnewonesrecruitedandtrained.Thisalltakestime.
Ukrainehasalsobeenslashingthenumberofstate-ownedagencies,whichweresupposedlyusedtoregulatetheeconomyorcivil
society,butinrealitywereoftenusedtoexactbribes.
Tradedeal
Therearesomecarrotsaswellassticks.
OnTuesdaytheEuropeanCommissionisexpectedtogivethegreenlightforUkrainetobeaddedtothelistofcountrieswhose
citizensenjoyvisa-freetravelwithintheEU.Thisisexpectedtocomeintoforcebythemiddleofnextyear.
AndanewfreetradeagreementbetweentheEUandUkrainewilltakeeffectinJanuary.
Russiaclaimsthedealisdamagingtoitsowninterests.
GettyImagesCouldthenewtradeagreementleadtoanescalationofviolence,similartothedemonstrationsthatoustedformer
PresidentViktorYanukovych?
EuropeanofficialssayRussiahasfailedtoproduceanyevidencethatthiswillbethecase,andpointoutthatMoscowhasbeen
partyto13roundsoftalksontheissue.
SoalmosttwoyearssinceformerPresidentYanukovychbackedoutofan"association"dealwiththeEU,whichsparkedthecurrent
crisis,thedealisabouttotakeeffect.
InOctobertheconflictintheeastde-escalatedtosomethingresemblingarealceasefire.However,thetit-for-tatexchangesalongthe
frontline,whichhavecharacterisedthewarthroughoutmuchofthisyear,havereturned.
AlleyeswillbeonwhetherthispotentiallylandmarkmomentinEU-Ukrainianrelationswillseeanotherescalationofviolence.
BrusselsbelievesMoscowhastotalcontroloverthepro-RussianunrecognisedrebelrepublicsineasternUkraine.
Moscowdeniesthat.However,RussiaclearlyhasincredibleinfluenceineasternUkraine,andtheabilitytoprevent,ornotto
prevent,theconflictfromescalatingagain.
Date:2015-12-1416:20GMT-05:00
Subject:HelsinkiCommission,RFE/RL,VOA,Ukr.Emb.totheUS
HelsinkiCommission
www.csce.gov
HUMANRIGHTSVIOLATIONSINRUSSIAN-OCCUPIEDCRIMEA
December11,2015-B-318Rayburn
Unofficialtranscript,submittedstatementsnowuponourwebsite:HumanRightsViolationsinRussian-
OccupiedCrimea.
RFE/RL
http://www.rferl.org/content/human-rights-violations-rampant-in-russian-held-crimea/27421834.html
Activists:HumanRightsViolationsRampantinRussian-HeldCrimea
ByRFE/RL
December11,2015
WASHINGTONUkrainianactivistssayhumanrightsviolationsarerampantinCrimea,theRussian-annexedpeninsulaof
Ukraine,includingpeoplebeingforcedtoacquireRussiancitizenshipandintimidationofnationalists.
ActivistsspokeDecember11atameetingoftheU.S.HelsinkiCommission,aU.S.governmentagencythatmonitorsinternational
adherencetothe1975HelsinkiAccordsonhumanrights.
ThepracticeofhumanrightsinoccupiedCrimeaisdireandcontinuestodeteriorate,saidIvannaBilych,aUkrainianlawyerand
oneofseveralauthorsofareportdocumentingproblemsontheBlackSeapeninsula.
RussiaannexedCrimeainMarch2014,severalweeksafterlong-runningprotestsintheUkrainiancapitalKyivturnedviolentand
forcedPresidentViktorYanukovychtoflee.
BodhanYaremenko,aformerdiplomat,calledontheinternationalcommunitytokeepinplacetheeconomicsanctionsimposedby
theUnitedStatesanduropeonRussiaaftertheannexation.
AndriyKlymenko,aformereconomistandeditor-in-chiefofwebsiteBlackSeaNews,saidauthoritieshavebeenquicktotamp
downanysignsofUkrainiannationalism.
RadioSvobodaUkrainian
Read:http://www.radiosvoboda.org/content/article/27425007.html
VOAUkrainian
(featureontheHelsinkiCommissionbriefingHumanRightsViolationsinRussian-occupiedCrimea,airedDecember13on
UkrainesChannel5/PyatiyKanal)
http://ukrainian.voanews.com/content/report-about-human-rights-in-crimea/3101212.html
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.,
EmbassyofUkrainetotheUnitedStates
Chargd'affairesofUkraineintheU.S.YaroslavBrisiucktookpartintheHelsinkiCommissionbriefingattheU.S.Congress:
HumanRightsViolationsinRussian-OccupiedCrimea
Read:http://usa.mfa.gov.ua/en/press-center/news/43156-timchasovij-povirenij-u-spravah-ukrajini-v-ssha-jaroslav-brisyuk-vzyav-
uchasty-u-brifingu-na-temu-porushennya-prav-lyudini-v-okupovanomu-rosijeju-krimu
Date:Mon,Dec14,2015at9:32AM
Subject:FrenchNationalFrontleaderLePencondemns'campaignoflies'inregionalpolls-BBCNews
NojoyintheFrenchelections[forMLePen].AlthoughPutin'sovertfavoritedidlose,Sarkosy,possiblyhisrealfirstchoice,
tookthedayandispoisedforastrongshowinginthenextelections.Let'snotforgetthatSarkosyistheguywhosoldRussiathe
MistralsandoneofthefewEuropeanleadersalmostasshortasPutie.
Subject:Londonestateagentscaughtoncameradealingwith'corrupt'Russianbuyer|UKnews|TheGuardian
LondonhaslongbeenafavoritemoneylaunderingvenueforRussiancash,withNewYorknowaclosesecond.ThePlaza,
CentralParkSouthandtheWestSideupto79thaswellasFifthAvenuearefavorites.NotjustBrightonBeach,butalsoAtlantic
BeachbelongstoRussiansaswellasprimesitesthroughoutEurope,includingmostoftheFrenchandItalianRivieras.
CameronspewsnicePRbutheisnomoregoingtocleanupthecashsewersofLondonthantheFedswillcleanupNewYork.
Inadditiontobuying,thereisahugebusinessinputtingupthecashandthenhavingthedealgosour,withthecashreturnedtoa
nomineeelsewhere.OneofUkraine'stemporarilyabsentoligarchsonceputup$150millionorsotobuyNewYork'sDrake
Hotel,sentinthecashandthenthedeal"fellapart"andnooneissurejustwherethemoneywent.Thedealwasfacilitatedbyhis
wellknownWashingtonbasedlobbyist.Noproblems,norepercussions.Onlythelittlepeople"getcaught".Yearsagomoney
waslaunderedinsuitcases.Now,it'slaunderedinrealestate.
Thebigproblemisthatthelawyers,bankersanddevelopersmakesomuchmoneywiththisapparently"legal"business,thatno
oneasksifit'scriminalmoneyornot.Itiswiredinfromanoffshorebankinbehalfofanoffshorecompanyandnooneasksany
questions.DoyoureallythinkthatDonaldTrump,whosoldthepenthouseofhisnewestandtallestinNewYorkfor$100million
sightunseentoaRussian,askedwheretheRussian"investor"hadstolenthemoney?
TherealestateindustrylovesitbecausetheRussiansbuyathigherpricesthanmarket(stolenmoneyiseasiertospendthanearned
money),soeveryonegetsricherandhappier,includingmorerealestatetaxrevenueforthecity.Thehigherpricesalsodriveout
themiddleclassriffraff.Andifyou'reamiddleclassguystillhangingontoatinycondoyouboughtfor$25Kinthe70'sandit's
worth$500,000now,chancesareyou'renotcomplainingeither.
Realestateformoneylaunderingisathrivingbusinessnoonewantsorwillshutdown.Bloombergworkedhardforyearstoturn
ManhattanintoacontenderwithDubaifor"therightkindofpeople(rich!).Cameronmaymakenoise,butflushingdirtymoney
outofLondongradisthelastthinghewoulddoasPM.He'dbehung,drawnandquarteredbeforesunset!
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/07/london-estate-agents-caught-on-camera-russian-buyer?
CMP=share_btn_linkthose
From:AndrewFink<finkandrewh@gmail.com>
Subject:TwoRussianpropagandistsremindustokeepaneyeonOdessaoblast
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

OleksiyAlbu,aprominentfigureintheRussiansubversive/terroristfrontknownasthe"OdessaFraternity"
and/orthe"OdessaPartisans"gaveaninterviewtoSvpressa,thepreferredoutletofRussiansubversives
inUkraine.IntheinterviewhedeclaredhisintentiontomaketroubleforUkraineinOdessa.Heclaimsthat
about70%ofthepopulationofOdessaoblastareopposedtothecurrentUkrainiangovernment.Hesays
thatinsomeareasofthefarSouthoftheOblast,inBessarabia,85%ofthepopulationopposesthe
government."NotallresidentsofOdessaOblastwanttosecedefromUkraine,butthevastmajoritydonot
wanttoberuledbytheoligarchsandneo-fascists."
(ForarefresherontheOdessaPartisans/OdessaFraternityandMr.Albu,see
here:http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/10/26/the-kremlins-other-separatist-projects-in-ukraine/#odesa-
underground-odesa-fraternity-a-propaganda-project-and-or-an-odesan-copy-of-the-kharkiv-partisans
AlbuwasaskeddirectlyaboutthesubversivegrouptheOdessaUnderground.Interestingly,heclaimsthat
the"OdessaUnderground"doesnotreallyexistyet,andthatanypreviousactivitieswereuncoordinated
anddoneattheinitiativeofindividualsmallgroups,buthepromisesonedaytohaveafully-functioningcell
structureinplace.HealsomakessurehebemoansthesupposedtotallackofsupportfromRussia.(Yeah,
right,justlikeinDonetsk)Areminder:thisguylivesopenlybetweenCrimeaandDonbass(andprobably
Moscowaswell)andclaimedtobeamemberofthe"ghost"battalionoperatinginLuhanskOblast.
The"OdessaUnderground"tookcreditforafewbombattacksinOdessaoverthesummerandfall,but
theYouTubepagetheyannouncedfromhasbeensuddenlyverysilentoverthelasttwomonths.Whatis
goingonhere?IsuspectAlbuiskeepinghispowderdryinordertoserveasapoliticalfrontifthereisever
alargerRussianinterventionorinitiativeinOdessawhileavoidingtheresponsibilitiesofhavingto
produceresults.UnlikeinKharkiv,Russia'sproxyinOdessadoesnotneedtomakefantasticclaimsof
theirsuccessthathasbeen"coveredup"bytheUkrainiansecurityforces.However,liketheKharkiv
PartisansthecanemphasizethatanybombattacksthatresultincasualtiesorassassinationsinOdessa
arenottheirwork,butaretheevilSBUconductingprovocations.Thewhole"OdessaUnderground"thing
mightbeafrontfortheactivitiesofRussianintelligenceinOdessaoblast,ratherthananactualseparatist
group.
Excerptfromtheinterview:
"TheOdessaundergroundhasnotbeencrushed.TheOdessaundergroundisnotyetformed.Thereare
isolatedcasesofresistance,liketheexplosionattheSBU(Ukrainianintelligence)office-thisinitiative
wasnotcoordinatedamongthemnorwiththosewhoarelocatedinDonbass.Soonthetimewillcome
(anditwillcome)tobegintheworkofbuildingtheunderground.Onlythenwilltherebearealnetworkof
smallautonomouscells,unrelatedtoeachother,butintouchwithasinglecenterwhichwillcoordinatetheir
activity....despiteallthecriesofUkrainianpropagandaboutthe'handoftheKremlin'orthe'agentsof
Putin"therehas,unfortunately,notappearedanysupportforoppositionmovementsatall.Thereforeitis
necessarytoactontheirown,buttheyarenotenoughtocreateafull-fledgedunderground"
"...Intheeventofaresumptionoffull-scalewarinDonbass,theOdesaresistanceshouldstartactive
operationsaimedatoverthrowingthecurrentgovernmentandtheformationofanalternativegovernment...
VladimirUlyanov(Lenin)wroteahundredyearsagothatifarevolutionarysituationcomes,butwearenot
readyforit,historywillnotforgiveus.WehadourchanceintheSpringof2014andwelost,everything
mustbedonetomakesurewedon'tmissasecondchance."
___________
Thepro-RussianwriterValentinFilippovalsoindicatedthatOdessaisalikelyplaceforfurtheractivity.As
isnormalinRussianpropaganda,heispredictingapossibleunprovokedandpure-evilUkrainian"attack"
inOdessa,probablyaspartofalong-termplantopreparetheinformationspaceshouldRussiaeverneed
toattackOdessamoredirectly.InhisrecentarticlefromtheoutletPolitnavigatortitled"WhyUkrainewill
CertainlyAttack"heconcludesthatanotherUkrainianoffensiveinDonbassisunlikely.Hethinksthat
UkrainewillinsteadtargetCrimeaandtheRussianenclaveofTransnistria,andthatthewayUkrainewill
initiateactionagainstoneoftheseareasisviaafakeattackon"separatists"inOdessaorKherson
Oblast.AccordingtoMr.Filippov,thiswouldbeaparallelactiontoUkraine'sattackon"fake"Russian
troopsinDonbass,whentheywereinfact(hesuggests)justlookingtokillethnicRussians:
"ItisalreadyoneandahalfyearssinceUkrainedestroyedthe'Russianoccupiers'inDonbass.It
destroyedinsuchawaythatchildren'sbodieswerescatteredaboutinpiles....Ukrainedestroysthe
"invaders"fromasafedistance.Whycan'tthe"liberationofCrimea"startinKherson?(Itcouldstart)with
therepulseofanattackbyRussian-terroristforcesonthisrestlesscity.Andwhycan'ttheyrepulsean
TransnistrianinvasiononOdessa?Especiallysincemultiplerocketlaunchershavebeenplacedaround
thecity.Afterall,ifyouremember,onMay22014"Russian-TransnistriantroopsoftheGRU"were
destroyedatthehouseoftheTradeUnions.So,whatpreventsthatdrunkenconfectioner(President
Poroshenko)fromreportinganotherinvasion...Firingatodessafromallcalibers,fromsea,land,andair.
Andmeanwhile,beggingformoneyfortheprotectionofEuropeanvaluesfromtheMuscovitehoards.This
is,ofcourse,absurd.ButtheAbsurdistherealitywhereUkraineissituated..."
Senttime: 12/07/201511:49:00AM
To: DavidKramer<djkramerwdc@gmail.com>
Subject: WRM:ThePresidentAsPangloss-TheAmericanInterest(youlovethis)
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/12/07/the-president-as-pangloss/
ThePresidentAsPangloss
Withpublicapprovalofhisanti-ISISeffortsat33percent,PresidentObamatooktotheairwaveslastnighttobolster
supportforhiscounterterrorismstrategy.Judgingbythereactioninthenationalpress,thespeechfellflat.Weshallsee
whatthepollssay,butitseemssafeatthispointtoruleoutadramaticsurgeinthePresidentssupportasagratefulnation
respondstohisdramaticappeal.ApresidentoncecomparedtoLincolnasanoratorandEisenhowerasastrategistbyhis
adoringsupportersnolongerseemscredibleoreveninterestingontheterrorthreatthatmanyvotersnowthinkisthemost
biggestconcernfacingthenation.
MostofthepublicisnolongerlisteningtoPresidentObamaonthistopicitiswaitingfor2017andthedecisiverepudiation
ofaglobalstrategythatmanyofthePresidentsclosestadvisorsandsenioraidesbelievehasfailed.Onethinksofthe
famousBostonGlobeheadlineaboutaJimmyCarterspeech,addedbyaprinterasaplaceholderthatsomehowsurvivedto
thefirstmorningedition:MoreMushFromtheWimp.Fairlyornot,thatiswhatmoreandmoreAmericanshearwhen
Obamaspeaksaboutterror.
ThepoliticalconsequencesoftheperceivedfailureofObamasnationalsecurityapproacharealreadyondisplay.Secretary
Clintonisrunningagainsttheforeignpolicyofthemansheservedforfouryears.Theneo-isolationistwingofthe
RepublicanPartyhassubsidedintoirrelevance.DonaldTrumpssupportsurgesonawaveofvoterangeratagovernment
andestablishmentmanybelievetobefailingthethresholdtestonnationalsecurity.PresidentObamaslegacybeginstolook
tragictheprimarygoalofhispresidencywastobanishthespecterofAndrewJacksonfromAmericanpolitics.Jacksonian
foreignpolicyandJacksonianpopulismathomearetheforcesObamaseesasembodyingallthathefearsanddislikesin
America.DisappointedinBush,bitterabouttheIraqwar,shockedbytheGreatRecession,Jacksonianismwasonthe
retreatintheAmericaof2008.ObamaandliberalDemocratshopedthatasthenewFDRandtheDemocraticReagan,
ObamawouldgiveJacksonianAmericathecoupdegrace.Thebitterclingerswouldfadeaway.
Thisclearlywontbehappeninganytimesoon.JacksonianAmericahasbeenenergizedratherthaneuthanizedbytheObama
presidencyin2016theRepublicanPartyislookingtorideaJacksonianwaveintotheWhiteHouse,whiletheDemocrats
willdotheirbesttodeflectthatwavebyadaptingtoit.HillaryClintonisgoingbacktoherrootsasaliberalhawkinthe
hopesthatshecanassuageenoughJacksonianconcernsaboutnationalsecuritytorideoutthestorm.
ThePresidentsdefendersatthispointarereducedtoasinglecontention:Forallitsfaultsandflaws,nobetterstrategycan
bedesignedthantheonethePresidenthasadopted.Thisiswhatyousaywhenthereisnothingelsetobesaid.Itisthe
argumentofVoltairesDoctorPangloss:Nomatterhowuglytheworldmayappear,PresidentObamahasadoptedthebest
ofallpossiblestrategiesandso,givenwheretheworldstoodin2009,wenowliveinthebestofallpossibleworlds.As
eachnewdisasterunfoldsacrosstheMiddleEast,thePanglossianchorusrepeatstherefrain:Nobetterstrategyexistsas
badastheconsequencesofthePresidentspoliciesappeartobe,nobetterchoicesexist.Itisoneofthoselittleironiesof
historythatPresidentObamahasnowadoptedMargaretThatchersresponsetohercritics:ThereIsNoAlternative.
Meanwhile,thePresidentresolutelyrefrainsfromacknowledgingthefailuresofconception,execution,andexplicationthat
havesappedtheworldsconfidenceinhisleadership.Hedoesnotspeakaboutlessonslearned,whichleadspeopleto
believethathehasntlearnedany.HedoesnotacknowledgethecorrosiveconsequencesofunforcedPresidentialerrorsthat
havemadetheworldworse(Libya,forexample).HesaysnothingabouttheruinofhisstrategytohealtheMiddleEastby
buildingallianceswithmoderateIslamists.HedoesnotaddresspublicconcernsthathemisjudgedPutinsRussia.Hedoes
notattempttorepairthedamagethatill-chosenremarks(ISISasthejuniorvarsity)havedonetopublicconfidenceinhis
judgment.Hespeaksabouttheevolutionoftheterrorthreatwithoutacknowledginghisearlierpronouncementsthatterror
wasdevolvingandbecominglessdangerous.
ThePresidentandhisdefendersdonotseemtounderstandthatthetrackrecordofmisstepsundercutsthePanglossian
defense.Doesthebestofallpossibleforeignpolicystrategiesbythebestofallpossibleleadersreallyinvolveapointless
invasionofLibyathatturnsthecountryintoahavenforISIS?DoesitreallyinvolvehaplessredlinekerflufflesinSyria?
WastherereallynothingbetteranyonecouldhavedoneinAfghanistan?IsthedisasterinSyrianowreallysomethingthatno
AmericanPresidentcouldhavedoneanythingtopreventortomitigate?Isthegrowingchorusofex-officialsfromhisown
staffcompletelymisguidedwhensomanyofthempointtoerrorsandomissionsthathavecosttheUnitedStatesdearlyon
hiswatch?Isthisreallythebestofallpossibleforeignpolicytrackrecordsinthebestofallpossibleworlds?
ThePresidentremainsweddedtotheideathathecanenhancehisprestigebyignoringhisfailures.Andsohisspeechesfall
flat.Helecturesthepublic,stilldehautenbas,stillcondescendingtothefearsofmanyAmericans,stillwarningthem
againstindulgingtheirbaseJacksonianinstincts,stillcallingthemtojoinhimonthehigherplaneofamoresophisticated
understandingofworldaffairs.Atthispoint,themorethePresidentspeaks,themorehefeedsthefearsoftheAmerican
people.Thecontrastbetweenhissmugself-assuranceandwhattosomanyAmericanslookslikeamassivecollapseinboth
ourforeignandourcounter-terrorpoliciesfrightensandangerspeopleandturbochargesJacksonianreaction.
ThePresidentdoesntjustneedabetterstrategyforcopingwithAmericasenemiesintheMiddleEastandathome.He
needsabetterstrategyfordescribinganddefendinghispoliciestotheAmericanpeople.Whenprimetimepresidential
speechesonmattersofthehighestimportanceleavenopositiveimprintonthepublicmind,itisasignthatthepublicis
tuningapresidentoutandwritinghimoff.
Senttime: 12/05/201510:57:42AM
FW:[LATESTINTHE"VLADGOIN'BAD"SERIES]Fwd:ECHRrulesRussiasmasstelephonesurveillanceunlawful......Fwd:AmidRUWar
Subject:
Talk,NATOSendsWarshipstoBlackSeaNearUA&TR.......TRRowLeavesRUStuckwithBillionsinAbandonedGasPipes......Tom
Sent:Saturday,December05,20158:56AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[LATESTINTHE"VLADGOIN'BAD"SERIES]Fwd:ECHRrulesRussiasmasstelephonesurveillanceunlawful......Fwd:AmidRU
WarTalk,NATOSendsWarshipstoBlackSeaNearUA&TR.......TRRowLeavesRUStuckwithBillionsinAbandonedGasPipes......Tom
F...
From:PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>
Subject:Fwd:ECHRrulesRussiasmasstelephonesurveillanceunlawfulTheRegister
To:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/12/04/mass_telephone_comms_interception_in_russia_ruled_unlawful_by_echr/
Russia'sblanketphonespyingbustedEurope'shuman
rightslaws
It'slikeglasnostalloveragain.Actually,it'snothinglikeglasnost
'Nah,youdon'tneedtosendmeacopy.Myladswillgetmeone'

4Dec2015at16:56,AlexanderJMartin
13 2
Russia'smasssurveillanceofallitscitizens'telephonecommunicationshasbeenfoundtobeaviolation
oftheEuropeanConventiononHumanRights,whichthecountryratifiedin1998.
TheGrandChamberjudgmentfromtheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightsistheproductofacomplaintmadebyaRussian
national,RomanZakharov,onthe23December2003.
Zakharov,whohasbeendescribedas"theeditor-in-chiefofapublishingcompany"allegedthathisprivacywasbeingviolatedbya
Russianlawwhichforcedmobilenetworkoperatorstoinstallequipmentwhichpermittedunrestrictedinterceptionofallofhis
telephonecommunications.
Zakharov'scomplaintwas"inparticularthatmobilenetworkoperatorsinRussiawererequiredbylawtoinstallequipmentenabling
law-enforcementagenciestocarryoutoperational-searchactivitiesandthat,withoutsufficientsafeguardsunderRussianlaw,this
permittedblanketinterceptionofcommunications".
Apressreleaseaboutthejudgment(PDF),whichwasdeliveredtoday,saidthecourtunanimouslyfoundtherehadbeen"a
violationofArticle8(righttorespectforprivatelifeandcorrespondence)oftheEuropeanConventiononHumanRights".
Zakharovallegedthat,"undertheOperational-SearchActivitiesActof1995(theOSSA),theCodeofCriminalProcedureof
2001(theCCrP)and,morespecifically,Orderno.70issuedbytheMinistryofCommunicationswhichrequires
telecommunicationsnetworkstoinstallequipmentenablinglaw-enforcementagenciestocarryoutoperational-searchactivities
themobileoperatorshadpermittedunrestrictedinterceptionofalltelephonecommunicationsbythesecurityserviceswithoutprior
judicialauthorisation".
Zakharov"askedthedistrictcourtinchargetoissueaninjunctiontoremovetheequipmentinstalledunderOrderno.70,andto
ensurethataccesstotelecommunicationswasgiventoauthorisedpersonsonly".
Zakharov'schallengewasdismissedbydomesticcourts,as"hehadfailedtoprovethathistelephoneconversationshadbeen
interceptedorthatthemobileoperatorshadtransmittedprotectedinformationtounauthorisedpersons".
Additionally,thosecourtsclaimedthatthe"installationoftheequipmenttowhichhereferreddidnotinitselfinfringetheprivacyof
hiscommunications".
Notonlywasthisseeminglyinconflictwiththenation'sownconstitution,whichguarantees"therighttoprivacyofcorrespondence,
oftelephoneconversations,postal,telegraphandothermessages"butalsowithArticle8oftheEuropeanConventiononHuman
Rights(ECHR).
Russia'slegalframeworkaroundthemasssurveillancewasfoundtobeunfitbecauseitdidnotlimitthecircumstancesinwhich
publicauthoritieswereallowedtoconducttheirsurveillanceactivities,norwerethereanylimitsonthedurationofthoseactivities.
Additionally,therewasinsufficientsupervisionoftheinterceptionandalackof"proceduresforauthorisinginterceptionaswellas
forstoringanddestroyingtheintercepteddata".
GrandChamberjudgmentsarefinal.ItwillnowbetransmittedtotheCouncilofEuropeCommitteeofMinisterswhowill
superviseitsexecution.
Sponsored:EvolutionoftheHybridEnterprise

Tipsandcorrections

Subject:AmidRussiaWarTalk,NATOSendsWarshipsToBlackSeaNearTurkey,Ukraine(NewTheatreofWar?
__WD)
AmidRussiaWarTalk,NATOSendsWarshipsToBlackSeaNearTurkey,Ukraine
ByElizabethWhitman@elizabethwhittye.whitman@ibtimes.comonDecember0420159:15AMEST
AmidtensionswithRussia,NATOsentwarshipsintotheBlackSea"topromotepeaceandstabilityinthe
region,"theU.S.Navysaid,RussianmediareportedFriday.Above,NATOamphibiousshipsparticipatein
NATOExerciseTridentJunctureinTroia,nearSetubal,Portugal,Nov.5,2015.Reuters/RafaelMarchante
TheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationhasstationedfourwarshipsintheBlackSea,theRussiannewsagency
SputnikreportedFriday.TheBlackSeasitsbetweenseveralcountrieswithstrainedrelationsoflate,including
Russia,TurkeyandUkraine.Russian-Turkishrelationshavebeenparticularlytenseinrecentweeks,after
TurkeyshotdownaRussianjetinSyrianairspaceinNovember.
TheU.S.wouldsendaguidedmissiledestroyer,theUSSRoss,"topromotepeaceandstabilityintheregion"as
partofOperationAtlanticResolve,saidapressreleasefromtheU.S.NavySixthFleetWednesday.Portugal,
SpainandCanadasentthemissilefrigatesFrancisAlmejida,BlasdeLezoandWinnipeg,respectively,Sputnik
reported.
OperationAtlanticResolveisa"demonstrationofcontinuedU.S.commitmenttothecollectivesecurityof
NATOandtoenduringpeaceandstabilityintheregion,inlightofRussia'sillegalactionsinUkraine,"according
totheU.S.Army.RussiahasalsobeencondemnedandsanctionedbyotherWesternnationsforitsinvolvement
intheongoingwarineasternUkraine.
TheUSSRoss's"operationsintheBlackSeaaremeanttoenhancemaritimesecurityandstability,readiness,
andnavalcapabilitywithouralliesandpartners,"theSixthFleet'spressreleaseread.Itadded,"TheU.S.
remainscommittedtomaintainingapersistentpresenceinEasternEurope"andthattheUSSRosswasona
"routinepatrolconductingnavaloperations...inordertoadvancesecurityandstabilityintheBlackSearegion."
TensionshavebeenhighbetweenRussiaandTurkey,aNATOmember,inthewakeofTurkey'sshootingdown
aRussianplaneinNovember.Oneofthetwopilotswaskilled.
"Ifsomebodythoughtthataftercommittingatreacherouswarcrime--thekillingofourpeople--itwouldbe
possibletogetawaywithmererestrictionsonthetradeoftomatoes,orsomeotherrestrictions...thentheyare
grosslymistaken,"RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsaidThursdayduringtheannualstateofthenation."They
willregretwhatthey'vedoneforalongtime,"headded.
TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganhasinsisted,followingtheincident,that"thosewhoviolatedour
airspacearetheoneswhoneedtoapologize."
Beyondissuingthreats,Russiahasalsosoughtretributioninavarietyofeconomicwayssincethedowningof
theplane.InNovember,RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovurgedRussians,whoconstitutethesecond-
highestproportionoftravelerstoTurkey,nottovisitthecountry"fortourismoranyotherreason."Russia
alsosuspendedtalksThursdaytobuildagaspipelinefromRussiatoEuropeviaTurkey,where"domestic
energydemandissurgingandinternalenergysourcesareextraordinarilylimited,"accordingtoananalysisby
thepublicationGlobalRiskInsights.
http://www.ibtimes.com/amid-russia-war-talk-nato-sends-warships-black-sea-near-turkey-ukraine-2211723
From:NFS
Date:Sat,Dec5,2015at8:59AM
Subject:TurkeyRowLeavesRussiaStuck
Industries|ThuDec3,201510:35amEST
Related:ENERGY,UTILITIES
TurkeyrowleavesRussiastuckwith
abandonedgaspipesworthbillions
*RussiasuspendsTurkishStreampipelinework
*Gazpromhadsignedfor1.8blneurospipeswithmakers
*PipesconstructedonlyforBlackSeause-sources
BySvetlanaBurmistrovaandJackStubbs
MOSCOW,Dec3Gaspipesworth1.8billioneuros($1.95billion)aretobeleftstrandedontheshoresofthe
BlackSeaafterRussia'sdecisiontosuspendworkontheTurkishStreampipeline,apotentsymbolofMoscow's
fallingoutwithAnkara.
RussiahassetouttopunishTurkeyafteritshotdownaRussianwarplaneinSyrialastweek,imposingtrade
sanctionsandreleasingdataitclaimsprovesTurkishPresidentTayyipErdoganisinvolvedinillegaloildealswith
IslamicState.
RussianEnergyMinisterAlexanderNovaktoldreportersonThursdayworkonTurkishStream,apipelineintended
topumpRussiangasintosoutheasternEuropeviaTurkeywhilebypassingUkraine,hadbeensuspended.
Shortlyafterwards,theheadofItalianoilmajorEni,slatedasoneofthemainbuyersforthepipeline'sgas,said
theprojectwasdeadinthewater.
ThedecisionleavesRussianenergygiantGazpromwithmilesofpipesonlyuseableintheBlackSea.
ItorderedpipesfromasfarafieldasJapanandGermanyforthe2,400-kilometre(1,491-mile)SouthStream
pipeline,originallyslatedtoopenin2018,whichwerethenreassignedtoTurkishStreamaftertheprojectwas
axed.
IndustrysourcessaidthepipescanonlybeusedforprojectsintheBlackSeabecauseoftheirspecialised
construction.GazpromwillnowbeforcedtoputthepipesinstorageuntiltensionsbetweenMoscowandTurkey
subside.
"Thesepipeswerecalibratedforaspecificenvironment,pressureandcapacity,"saidonesourceinthepipe-
makingindustry."Accordingly,theyareonlysuitableforunderwaterpipelinesintheBlackSea."
Gazpromwasnotavailableforcomment.
ABORTEDPREDECESSOR
AlthoughfreezingworkonTurkishStreamislargelysymbolic-ithaslongbeenbesetbydelaysanddoubtsoverits
viability-thefinancialimplicationsforGazpromareveryreal.
SberbankanalystValeryNesterovsaidGazpromhasspentbetween$12-14billiononTurkishStreamandits
abortedpredecessorSouthStream,whichwasabandonedlastyearinthefaceofEuropeanUnionoppositionand
heightenedtensionsovertheUkrainecrisis.
QuestionshavealsobeenraisedovertheplannedNordStreampipelinetoGermanyafteragroupof10European
governmentspublishedalettersayingtheprojectrancountertoEuropeanUnioninterestsandriskeddestabilising
Ukraine.
"Again,thecompanyisrapidlybuildingapipelinewhichmightnotbeneeded,"saidNesterov.
Russiaisoneoftheworld'slargeststeelpipeproducers,secondonlytoChina,andhasthecapacitytoturnout
morethan3milliontonnesofthelarge-diameterpipestypicallyusedinmajorenergyprojectseveryyear.
Russia'slargestpipemaker,TMK,saidTurkishStreamcouldberevivedinthefuture.
"Turkishstream,asaproject,isnotcompletelyfinished,"saidTMKVice-PresidentVladimirShmatovich.
"Maybeinayearortwo,whenthetensiondecreases,itwillberealised,"hesaid."Butthepipescouldlieonthe
groundfor50years."($1=0.9246euros)(AdditionalreportingbyDenisPinchukWritingbyJackStubbsEditing
byAndrewOsbornandWilliamHardy)
From:VRT
Subject:InterestingOpeninginTomFriedman'sOp-Ed:Putin'sSyrianMisadventure
To:waz2102@columbia.edu
TheOpinionPages|OP-EDCOLUMNIST
PutinsSyrianMisadventure
ThomasFriedman
DEC.2,2015
256COMMENTS
WhenPresidentVladimirPutinofRussiaannouncedhewassettingupanair Advertisement
baseinthemiddleofSyriatotakeontheIslamicStateandbolsterPresident
Basharal-Assad,morethanafewanalystsandpoliticianspraisedhisforceful,
game-changing,strategicbrilliance,suggestingthatPutinwascrazylikeafox.
Someofusthoughthewasjustcrazy.
Well,twomonthslater,letsdothemath:Sofar,PutinsSyrianadventurehasresultedina
Russiancivilianairlinercarrying224peoplebeingblownup,apparentlybypro-ISISmilitants
inSinai.TurkeyshotdownaRussianbomberafteritstrayedintoTurkishterritory.Andthen
SyrianrebelskilledoneofthepilotsasheparachutedtoearthandoneoftheRussianmarines
senttorescuehim.Manyoftheanti-AssadrebelsinthatareaareethnicTurkmens,with
strongculturaltiestoTurkeyTurkeywasnotamusedbyPutinbombingTurkmenvillages
insideSyria,becauseitweakensTurkeysabilitytoshapeSyriasfuture.
Insum,PutinscraftySyrianchessmovehaslefthimwithalotmoredeadRussiansnewlyat
oddswithTurkeyandIranweakenedinUkraineactingasthedefenselawyerforAssada
massmurdererofSunniMuslims,thesameSunniMuslimsasPutinhasinRussiaandwithno
realadvancesagainstISIS.
Otherthanthat,itsbeenagreatsuccess.
Truthbetold,IwishPutinhadsucceeded.Itwouldhavesavedusallalotoftrouble,becauseISISisnotthe
J.V.teamPresidentObamaoncecalledit.ItsactuallytheJihadistAll-Starteam.Itcombinesthemilitary
efficiencyofIraqiex-Baathistarmyofficerswiththereligiouszealotryandprison-forgeddepravityofits
CaliphAbuBakral-Baghdadi,theWeb-savvyofArabmillennialsandathrill-rideappealtohumiliatedyoung
Muslimmales,whoveneverheldpower,adecentjoboragirlshand.
AndtheISISthreatisbecomingstrategic.ThemassiveoutflowofrefugeesfromSyriaandIraqthatISIShas
provokedisleadingtheEuropeanUniontostarttocloseinternalbordersandlimitthefreeflowofpeopleand
probablysomegoodsaswelljusttheoppositeofwhattheblocwascreatedtodo.Thatwillonlyslowthe
E.U.seconomicgrowthandfuelgreaternationalismthatcouldultimatelythreatenitsunity.TheE.U.is
Americasmostimportantpartnerinmanagingtheglobalsystem.Ifitisweakened,weareweakened.
ButtosustainablydestroyISIS,youneedtounderstandthreethings:1)Itistheproductoftwocivilwarsone
wasbetweenmoderateandextremistSunnisandtheotherwasbetweenSunnisandShiites.Andtheyfeed
eachother.2)TheonlywaytodefeatISISistominimizethestrugglebetweenSunnisandShiitesand
strengthenthefightingcapacityofmoderateSunnisagainstextremistones.And3)thefighthastobeledby
ArabsandMuslimsbutstronglybackedbyAmerica,theE.U.and,yes,Russia.
WhereasPutinsgoalsareuncertain,andperhapslimitedtoprotectingatruncatedAssadregime,Obamareally
doeswanttodefeatISIS.Justasimportant,hewantstodoitwithoutbeingeitherPutinorGeorgeW.Bush,
whojustdoveintothemiddle.
Butitisntclearthatamiddleapproachexists,letalonethefantasyoptionsofmanyObamacritics,asinDonald
Trumpsjustbombthe[blank]outofthem.(Gosh,noonethoughtofthat!)EveryonewantstodefeatISIS
withtheImmaculateIntervention:morebombsfromtheairorsomebodyelsestroops,boots,risksor
politicaltransformation.
Sorry,buttosustainablydefeatISISyouneedamutuallyreinforcingcoalition.YouneedSaudiArabiaandthe
leadingSunnireligiouspowerstoaggressivelydelegitimizeISISsIslamistnarrative.YouneedArab,Kurdish
andTurkishgroundtroopsbackedbyU.S.andNATOairpowerandspecialforces,withRussias
constructivesupporttouprootISISdoortodoor.
YouneedIrantoencouragetheShiite-ledgovernmentinBaghdadtocreateasemiautonomousSunnistanin
theareasheldbyISIS,givingmoderateIraqiSunnisthesamedevolvedpowersasKurdsinKurdistansothey
haveapoliticalalternativetoISIS.AndyouneedIrantoagreetoapoliticaltransitioninSyriathatwould
eventuallyreplaceAssad.
Inshort,youneedeitherapower-sharingpoliticalsolutionthatallthekeyplayersacceptandwillenforce,oran
armedforcetojustcrushISISandthensitontheregionindefinitely,soISISdoesntcomeback.Obamacant
securetheformer,anddoesntwanttodothelatter.NordotheAmericanpeoplenorObamascritics,
despitewhatsomeofthemmightsuggest.
YoucansaythatwhenitcomestoISISandSyria,Obamahasdoneanimpossiblejobbadly,andsomeoneelse
mighthavedoneitbetter.Butitisstillanimpossiblejobaslongasallthekeyplayersinthatregiondefinetheir
interestsasruleordieandaslongasmostoftherealdemocratsinthatregionarelivingabroad.
Senttime: 12/04/201503:56:24PM
FW:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....[FP]Pomerantsev--
Subject:
Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
Sent:Friday,December04,20156:54AM
Subject:Fwd:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....[FP]
Pomerantsev--Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
Subject:[ARICHFRIDAYMORN/ESTLODE--ALL'MUSTNOTE'ITEMS][ODDD]Turchynov--Kramer--Goble[3X]....
[FP]Pomerantsev--Johnson--Schake....[AIM]Kincaid
Subject:Ukraine:WP,AI,RFE/RL,WoE
TheWashingtonPostop-ed
AllyingwithPutinagainsttheIslamicStatewouldbeadevilsbargain
ByOleksandrTurchynovDecember3at8:10PM(December4printeditiontitledADevilsBargaininSyria)
OleksandrTurchynovissecretaryoftheNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncilofUkraine.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/allying-with-putin-against-the-islamic-state-would-be-a-devils-
bargain/2015/12/03/c0deeaca-9871-11e5-b499-76cbec161973_story.html
WinstonChurchillwasundernoillusionsabouthiswartimealliancewithJosephStalin.IfHitlerinvadedhell,I
wouldmakeatleastafavorablereferencetothedevilintheHouseofCommons,heremarkedtoanaide.This
wasnotabondforgedinfriendshipandtrust.Itwasatemporarypartnershipofnecessityinthefaceofa
commonenemy.AssoonasNaziGermanywasdefeated,therealityofStalinsintentionsbecameclear.
PromisestoholdfreeelectionsinthecountriesunderSovietoccupationwerebroken,andtheWestspentthe
next40yearstryingtocontainthethreattheSovietUnionposed.
ThisneedstobekeptinmindaswecontemplateeventsinSyria.Intheaftermathofthehorrificterrorist
attacksinParisandthebombingofaRussianplaneovertheSinai,itisunderstandablethatWestern
governmentsshouldwanttoformthebroadestpossibleinternationalcoalition,includingwithRussia,todefeat
thoseresponsible.Butsharedgriefisnotthesameassharedinterests.CooperationwithRussiainthefight
againsttheIslamicStateneedstobecarefullyweighedagainstseveralbiggerforeignpolicyissues.
TheareaswhereRussiasinterestsinSyriaconflictwiththoseoftheWestremainatleastassignificantasthose
wheretheyoverlap.WhereastheWestspriorityisdestroyingtheIslamicState,Russiasprimaryaimisto
keeptheBasharal-Assadregimeinpower.Sofar,alargemajorityofRussianairstrikesinSyriahavebeen
directedagainstnon-IslamicStatetargets,includingmoderategroupssuchastheWestern-backedFreeSyrian
Armythatarehelpingfighttheterroristgroupontheground.Thesestrikeshavealsoexacerbatedtheflowof
SyrianrefugeestowardEurope.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasdirectinterestsinSyriaasaregionalally,amarketforRussianmilitary
exportsandabasefortheRussiannavysMediterraneanfleet.Buthisapproachisinfluencedbywider
considerations,oneofwhichistopreventanotherauthoritarianregimefromsuccumbingtothedemandsofits
people.AswewellknowinUkraine,Putinisdeterminedtoresistthetideofglobaldemocraticchangeand
willingtouseviolenceagainstothercountriestostopit.Heseesfreedomasathreattohisownholdonpower
andanindicationofadvancingWesterninfluence.RussianpolicyinSyriaisframedbyanattitudeofstrategic
hostilitytowardtheWestanditsvalues.
WhiletheKremlinpretendstobefightingterrorisminSyria,Russiaitselfmeritsdesignationasastatesponsor
ofterrorism.ItsaggressionagainstUkrainehascostmorethan8,000lives,includingtheindiscriminate
shellingofcivilianareasandthemurderofpoliticalopponentscarriedoutbyitsspecialforcesandRussian-
sponsoredterrorists.ItwasaRussian-suppliedBukmissilethatreportedlyshotdownMalaysiaAirlinesFlight
17inJulyoflastyear,resultinginthelossof298innocentlives.Morethan1.5millionpeopleinUkrainehave
beeninternallydisplacedasaresultofillegalRussianaggression.TheRussianstatehasshownitselfwillingto
carryouttheassassinationofregimecritics,bothathomeandabroad,usingterroristmethods.
YetnoneofthiswillpreventRussiafromtryingtoextractadvantagefromthewarinSyria.Putinisamasterof
tacticalopportunism,andinthepasttwoweeksRussianjetsinSyriahavebeendroppingbombsinscribedwith
themessageForParisinagestureofapparentsolidarity.PositionedasafriendoftheWestinitsfightagainst
terrorism,Putinhopestosecuretherelationshiphehasalwayswantedonethatsetsasideinternationallaw
andtherightsofsmallernationsinfavorofgreat-powerdealmakingandtheprinciplethatmightisright.
RussiahasalreadyinvokedthegrandallianceagainstHitlerasaprecedentforfightingtheIslamicState.Bein
nodoubtthatitwillalsodemandanewYaltaasthepriceofcooperationnow.InhisrecentspeechtotheUnited
Nations,Putinpraisedthepost-WorldWarIIagreementthatbeganthedivisionofEuropebyrecognizingthe
territorialgainsStalinachievedundertheNazi-Sovietpact.ThetownofYalta,ofcourse,nowliesinRussian-
occupiedCrimeaasapoignantreminderthatthepastliveswithus.AllPutinneedsisfortheWesttodrop
sanctionsandaccepthislandgrabinUkraineforthecircletobecomplete.
TheWestneedstobehardheadedinitsassessmentoftherisksinvolvedindoingbusinesswithRussiaover
Syriaandfirmaboutthelimitsofanycooperation.Islamistterrorismisamajorthreatandhasthecapacityto
causedeathandsufferingonahugescale.Itmustbedealtwithasamatterofurgentpriority.Yetthegreatest
long-termthreatstoapeacefulandliberalworldorderremainRussianterrorismandthedeterminationofa
revanchistKremlintoimposeanewsphereofinfluenceandsystematicallytrytodestabilizeitsneighborhood,
notonlyinUkrainebutalsointheCaucasus,theBalticStates,PolandandtheBalkans.Thecivilizedworldmust
defeatterrorism,notselectivelybutinallformsandonallfronts.
AmericanInterest
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/12/04/u-s-policy-to-ukraine-in-need-of-urgent-fix/
BattleforUkraine
USPolicytoUkraineinNeedofUrgentFix
DavidJ.Kramer
AmericaspaltrymilitaryaidtoKyivissendingthewrongmessagetoUkraineandtoPutin.
U.S.policytowardUkraineisinurgentneedofanoverhaul,andPresidentObamahimselfneedstoleadthecharge.Thefront-
pagestoryinTuesdaysWashingtonPostthatthenon-lethalassistancetheUnitedStateshasbeenprovidingtoUkraineis
outdatedandfallingapartunderscoredthatthereisnotimetowasteinfixingsomeseriousproblems.Threesuchproblemscanand
shouldbefixedquickly.
LetsstartwiththePostreport.AccordingtoreporterThomasGibbons-Neff,TheUnitedStateshasdeliveredmorethan$260
millioninnon-lethalmilitaryequipmenttohelpthegovernmentofUkraineinitsfightagainstaRussian-backedinsurgency,butsome
oftheU.S.-suppliedgearmeanttoprotectandtransportUkrainianmilitaryforcesislittlemorethanjunk.Gibbons-Neffcited,for
example,Humveesthatarenearlythirtyyearsold.
ProvidingsuchequipmenthasbeenablowtoUkrainiansmoraleandAmericasstandinginUkraine.IftheAmericansaregoing
tosendusequipment,dontsendussecondhandstuff,Gibbons-NeffquotesoneUkrainianspecialforcescommander.The
Pentagonshouldbeabletofindequipmentandmaterielthatismoremodernandingoodshape.Thisproblemshouldbeeasyto
address.
ThesecondproblemprovidinglethaldefensiveweaponstoUkrainetohelpitfendoffVladimirPutinsaggressionisharder,
becauseitwouldrequirethePresidenttoreversehimself.Congresshaspassedseveralpiecesoflegislationbylargebipartisan
majoritiescallingfortheprovisionoflethalarmstoUkraine,andvirtuallyeverymemberoftheCabinetaswellashisVice
PresidentsupportsuchastepPresidentObamaistheloneholdout.PresidentPetroPoroshenkoandotherseniorUkrainian
officialshaverequestedshoulder-mountedJavelinanti-tankmissilesandothersystemstohelpthwartfurtherRussianadvancesinto
Ukrainianterritory.Obamahasexplainedhisoppositiontotheirrequestsbywarningthatsuchamovewouldtriggerescalationby
Russia.AmorelikelyresultwouldbethatPutinwouldthinktwicebeforelaunchingfurtherintoUkraineinthefaceofaUkrainian
fightingforcethathasbeenbeefedupbyAmericananti-tankweapons.
Itsworthrecallingthe1994BudapestMemorandum,inwhichUkraineagreedtosurrenderthenuclearweaponsitinheritedfrom
thecollapseoftheUSSRinexchangeforapledgefromtheothersignatoriesRussia,theUnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStates
thattheywouldupholdandrespectUkrainessovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.Whilenotaformaltreaty,theBudapest
MemorandumplayedakeyroleinreducingtheproliferationofweaponsofmassdestructionbecauseUkraineliveduptoitsend
ofthedeal.Russia,bycontrast,hasnotbyinvadingitsneighborandannexingCrimea.Weshouldliveuptoourendofthedealby
complyingwiththeUkrainianpleasfordefensiveweaponstheyarenotaskingforU.S.troopsonthegroundbutthemeansby
whichtodefendthemselves.
ThethirdproblemisthefactthatObamahasnotsetfootinUkraineoncesincebecomingPresident,thoughhedidtravelthere
oncewhilehewasintheSenate.ThebiggestchallengeinEuropeindecadeshasbeenRussiasinvasionofitsneighbor,acountry
of45millionpeople.Inrecognitionofthat,mostWesternleadershavevisitedKyivatleastoncetoshowUkrainianstheirsupport.
CouldObamanothavetackedonaquickvisitwhileinEurope,forexampleafterhisrecenttriptoParis?
Nextweek,VicePresidentBidenwillbemakinghisfifthvisittoUkraine,buthisengagement,whilelaudable,isnosubstitutefor
much-neededengagementbyhisboss.SinceRussiasinvasionofUkrainealmosttwoyearsago,PresidentObamahasmetwith
PutinmoretimesthanhehaswithPoroshenko,despiteassertinginJanuaryinhisStateoftheUnionspeechthatheis
leadingeffortstoisolateRussia.AnObamavisittoKyivtodemonstratesolidaritywiththeUkrainianpeoplewouldbeahuge
boosttoUkrainethereis,afterall,nothinglikeAirForceOnelandinginonescountryandallthatcomeswithit.
TheObamaAdministrationdeservescreditforthesanctionsithasimposedagainstthePutinregime,thoughmoreshouldbedone
topreempt,notreactto,Putinsaggression.TheAdministrationhasrightlypressedUkrainianleaderstogetseriousaboutfighting
corruption,andithasprovidedseveralbilliondollarsinassistancethroughloans,thoughitcoulddomore(andtheEuropeans
shouldbedoingmuchmore).WeshouldalsoprovidemuchmorehumanitarianassistanceforthoseUkrainiansdisplacedand
affectedbyRussiasinvasion.
TheproblemsidentifiedaboveareseriousandbadlyhurtingtheU.S.imageinUkraine.TheyalsosendthewrongsignaltoPutin:
thatwearenotpayingsufficientattentiontoUkraineatatimewhenitneedsusmorethanever.ThePresidentshouldorderhis
teamtoproperlyequipUkraineandreversehisownobjectionstoprovidinglethalassistance.Itwouldbebestifheannounced
suchcorrectionsinpolicyinpersoninKyiv.
DavidJ.KramerisseniordirectorforHumanRightsandDemocracyattheMcCainInstituteforInternationalLeadership.
WindowonEurasia[PaulGoble]
PutinWorriedaboutStabintheBackHisOwnandatHome,UkrainianCommentatorSays
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/putin-worried-about-stab-in-back-his.html
CrimeanTatarsFormNewOrganizationtoPressforRestorationofAutonomywithinUkraine
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/crimean-tatars-form-new-organization-to.html
DespiteMoscowsCharges,MuslimsinUkraineFightingforUkraine,NotforISIS
windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2015/12/despite-moscows-charges-muslims-in.html
Subject:FlashPoints
B a y n a z a r M o h a m m a d N a z a r w a s a h u s b a n d a n d a f a t h e r o f f o u r - - a n d a p a t i e n t k i l l e d d u r i n g t h e a t t a c k o n t h e M S F h o s p i t a l i n K u n d u z . T h i s i s h i s s t o r y .

FLASH
POINTS

Policy

Friday,December4,2015 SUBSCRIBETO
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FollowUs:
ARGUMENT

TheTVvs.theFridge
byPeterPomerantsev,NathanGamester
InRussia,economicdeclineisn'ttranslating

intodissatisfactionwithPutin.Here'swhy.

MORE

REPORT

RussiaPoursHotOilonWounded
TiesWithTurkey
byKeithJohnson

AweekafterTurkeyshotdownaRussianjet,
Moscowstruckbackwithsharpallegations
thatAnkaraisunderwritingtheIslamicStates
illicitoilbusiness.Whatonceseemeda
beautifulfriendshipisnowincreasingly
vicious.

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TakeThat,Vladimir!

KORISCHAKE

Thisemailwassent
towaz2102@caa.columbia.edubyfp@foreignpolicy.com.

GROUPSALES
PRIVACY
POLICY

From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Subject:PutinsWaronTerrorCouldBackfire
PutinsWaronTerrorCouldBackfire
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/putins-war-on-terror-could-backfire/
TherecanbenodoubtthattheRussiansarewinningtheMiddleEastpropagandawar.ButitsnotjusttheMarxistfar-leftthatis
willingtobelievewhateverVladimirPutinandhismouthpieceRussiaToday(RT)aresaying.Someconservativesandself-
describedTeaPartyleadershavealsoacceptedthedisinformationtheRussiansareputtingout,eventotheextentofaffirmingthe
RussianpresidentasaChristianstatesmanleadingtheglobalwaronterror.

ConsiderChuckBaldwinspiece,RootinforPutin,whichinsiststhatRussiasVladimirPutinistheonlyonefightingaJustWar
intheMiddleEastrightnow.Baldwin,aChristianpastordedicatedtopreservingthehistoricprinciplesuponwhichAmericawas
founded,wasthepresidentialcandidatein2008oftheConstitutionParty,agroupassociatedwiththelateconservativeicon
HowardPhillips.
ItissimplyamazingthatanyconservativewouldinsistthatPutin,who,despitedroppingthecommunistlabelisstillalliedwithIran,
CommunistChina,NorthKoreaandCuba,issomehowdoingtherightthinginSyria,along-timeSoviet/Russianclientstate.What
PutinisdoingisentirelyconsistentwithwhattheSovietsalwaysdid.Theyaretryingtosaveaclientstatefromwhatstartedoutas
apopularrebellion.
Inhiscolumn,BaldwinwentontolabelBarackObama,DavidCameronofBritain,BenjaminNetanyahuofIsrael,KingSalmanof
SaudiArabia,andRecepTayyipErdoganofTurkeyasinternationalgangsters.
ItistruethatObama,throughafewofAmericasAraballies,hasbeensupportingthecauseofsomejihadistsandterroristsin
theMiddleEast.SaudiArabiaandQatarhavebeenimplicatedinthesedangerousschemes,oneofwhichculminatedinthe
BenghazimassacreoffourAmericansinLibya.ThatwasatreasonousactionthatshouldsinkHillaryClintonspresidential
campaignandcouldhavejustifiedimpeachmentchargesagainstObamahimself.Mrs.ClintonwasObamasSecretaryofStateat
thetime.
TheseoperationsintheMiddleEasthavebeencharacterizedbyformerCIAofficerClareLopezoftheCitizensCommissionon
BenghaziasswitchingsidesintheWaronTerror.
ButtheideathatPutinhascleanhandsintheMiddleEastisabsolutelyridiculous.ConsideringthathewasaSovietKGBspyand
actuallyheadedoneoftheKGBssuccessoragencies,theideathatPutinhassuddenlyhadaDamascusRoadconversionto
Christianityissimplyludicrous.HisforeignpolicyisverysimilartothatoftheoldSovietUnion.
Sincetheforeignpolicyhasmostlyremainedthesame,Sovietfinancingandsponsorshipofinternationalterroristnetworks,many
ofthemlinkedtoArabandMuslimgroups,alsohavetobetakenintoconsiderationhere.Itisreasonabletoassumethatthe
RussianshavemaintainedatleastpartsofthesenetworksforapurposethatweseeinthebackingofBasharAssadinSyria.
Indeed,writerandresearcherChristianGomezhastracedtherootsofISIStotheIslamicRevivalParty,createdbytheKGB,
duringthefinaldaysoftheoldSovietUnion.U.S.ArmyColonelSteveWarren,aspokesmanforCombinedJointTaskForce
OperationInherentResolve,hasnotedthattheRussiansaredoinglittleinSyriatofightISISterroristsandthatEverythingthey
[theRussians]aredoingistosupportAssad,tokeepAssadinpower.Inotherwords,PutiniscontinuingacleverSoviet-style
strategythatseekstomaintainAssadinpowerwhileusingISISforhisownpurposes.Oneofthosepurposes,asreflectedinRT
propaganda,istomakePutinlooklikeaterroristfighter.
BaldwinisnttheonlypersonalityontherightdupedbyPutinandhispropagandamachine.TheCEOofagroupcallingitself
simplytheTeaPartyhasdistributedanarticleclaimingthatRussiahasproducedstunningphotographicevidencethatISISoil
wasbeingsmuggledintoTurkeyonanindustrialscale.
Thestunningphotographicevidenceshowsnothingofthesort.NatashaBertrandofBusinessInsiderexaminedtheRussianmaps
andfoundthatthethreemainroutestheRussiansclaimISIShadallegedlybeenusingtotransportillicitoilintoTurkeyarenot
primarilycontrolledbytheIslamicState.TurkishPresidentErdoganhascountered:Whoisbuyingoil(fromISIS)?Letmesayit.
GeorgeHaswani,holderofaRussianpassportandaSyriannational,isoneofthebiggestmerchantsinthisbusiness.Henoted
thattheU.S.TreasuryDepartmentimposedsanctionsonHaswani,whowasalsoplacedonanEUsanctionslist,forservingas
middlemanforoilpurchasesbytheSyrianregimefromtheISISgroup.
IfyouhaventheardaboutthesanctionsontheindividualsandnetworksprovidingsupporttoSyriaandfacilitatingSyrianoil
purchasesfromISIS,youareavictimoftheslickpropagandathatisbeingspreadaroundtheworldbysuchoutletsasRT.Itisa
factthattheRussianclaimsagainstTurkeyaretakingprecedence,evenintheWesternmedia,overthefactsontheground,as
determinednotonlybytheU.S.TreasurybuttheU.S.Army.ColonelWarrensaid,WeflatlyrejectanynotionthattheTurksare
somehowworkingwithISIL,hesaid.Thatispreposterous.
TheTeaPartyarticleabouttheRussianclaimswaslifteddirectlyfromtheInfowars.comsiteofRussianapologistAlexJones,
whojustscoredamajorinterviewwithGOPpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrump.NorespectableTeaPartygroupshouldhave
anythingtodowithAlexJones,whodefendedtheRussianinvasionofitsformerrepublicGeorgiain2008.Trumpsdecision
toappearonhisshowwasextremelyfoolish.HeapparentlywasnotawarethatJonespromotesclaimsthatactualterroristattacks,
suchastheBostonMarathonbombingscarriedoutbytwoMuslimsfromRussia,werefalseflagsperpetratedbyU.S.police
andlawenforcementagencies.HiswebsiteranaVoiceofRussiastoryclaimingthedeadandwoundedwereactorsplastered
withfakeblood.
RatherthantreatPutinasagoodguyorally,GOPpresidentialcandidateSenatorMarcoRubio(FL)arguesthatTurkeyisa
memberofNATOandanallythatdeservesthefullbackingoftheUnitedStates.HenotedthattheRussiansweretargeting
Turkmen-populatedpocketsofnorthernSyriaratherthanterritorycontrolledbyISISandthatMostRussianmilitarystrikes
sincetheendofSeptemberhavebeennon-ISIStargets,includingmanycivilianareas,revealingthatRussiadoesnotshareour
interestinconfrontinganddefeatingISISbutinsteadisintentonproppinguptheAssadregime.
BeforeheassumedtheroleasaleaderoftheSunnisintheMiddleEast,mobilizingforcesagainstShiteIranandSyria,Erdogan
wasknownforhisanti-Sovietviews.Indeed,hewasananti-communistinhisyouth.AsaresultofRussiasincreasedmilitary
involvementinSyria,heseemstohaveawakenedtothefactthatPutinhasreturnedtohisSovietrootsandthatTurkeysfuturelies
withNATOandtheWest.TurkeyjoinedNATO,originallyconceivedasananti-Sovietmilitaryalliance,in1952.
AssumingErdoganisanIslamistofsomekind,assomeconservativescontend,itmightmakestrategicsensefortheWesttoback
himforthatreasonaloneinhisbattlewithRussia.Afterall,mostofRussias14millionMuslimsareSunnis.RTitself
recentlyhighlightedhowthousandsofMuslimshadgatheredincentralMoscowtowitnesstheopeningofoneofthebiggest
mosquesinEurope.TheceremonywasattendedbyPutinandErdogan,whohadbeenconsideredtobeonfriendlyterms.
TheirrelationshipturnedsourafterTurkeyshotdowntheRussianwarplane,anditseemstobedeterioratingfurther.
AsnotedbyIlyaArkhipovofBloombergBusiness,Putinusedhisannualstate-of-the-nationaddresstoattackTurkeyand
Erdoganinverypersonalandreligiousterms.Putinsaid,OnlyAllahknowswhytheydidthis.AnditseemsthatAllahdecidedto
punishtherulingganginTurkeybystrippingitofcommonsenseandreason.AnalystTimothyAshtoldBloombergthatThe
religiousanglebeingusedbyPutinisunlikelytogodownwellintheregion,whereErdoganisstillseenasadefenderoftheSunni
faith.
Oneobserverhasnoted,inregardtoRussianinvolvementinArab/MuslimterrorismandnowISIS,thatthemonsterthatthe
USSRcreatedmayhavegrowntoobig,andthatitmayeventuallyattackitscreator.InthecaseofTurkey,Putinisfacinga
Muslimproblemofhisownmaking.
Senttime: 12/17/201509:50:20AM
FW:[*]Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE12-17/MORNEST]AGEMFROMDAVIDK:"WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussiaseconomic
Subject:
bloc".......VLAD-O-RAMA[MB]RUSuspendsUATradePactVladCallsShootDown'EnemyAct'VladGetsCrudeWithTR......PLUSTwo'Mu...
Subject:Fwd:[*]Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE12-17/MORNEST]AGEMFROMDAVIDK:"WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussias
economicbloc".......VLAD-O-RAMA[MB]RUSuspendsUATradePactVladCallsShootDown'EnemyAct'VladGetsCrudeWithTR......PLUS
Two'Mu...
Subject:[ITEMSOFNOTE12-17/MORNEST]AGEMFROMDAVIDK:"WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussias
economicbloc".......VLAD-O-RAMA[MB]RUSuspendsUATradePactVladCallsShootDown'EnemyAct'VladGetsCrude
WithTR......PLUSTwo'MustNote'ItemsfromthePenofALEXM.....ANDPBonPutin'sAdmission,ISIS,TransitThruUA
From:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:FW:mylatestinPoliticoEurope:"WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussiaseconomicbloc"
WalterFYI.
Best,
David
http://www.politico.eu/article/whyeuropeshouldntcooperatewithrussiaseconomicbloc/
Opinion
WhyEuropeshouldntcooperatewithRussiaseconomicbloc
WorkingwiththeEurasianEconomicUnionwillunderminetheEUslegitimacy.
By
DavidJ.Kramer
12/17/15,11:57AMCET
Updated12/17/15,12:09PMCET
ThereareseveralencouragingdevelopmentsintheEuropeanUnionspositiononUkraineandRussia.Thisweek,EUleadersareexpectedto
renewsanctionsagainstRussiaforitsongoinginvasionofandaggressionagainstUkraine.Effectivenextmonth,theEUstradedealwithUkraine
willkickin,afterayearsdelaytoplacateRussia,whichpetulantlyannouncedWednesdaythatitwouldsuspenditsownfreetradeagreement
withUkrainestartingJanuary1,2016.VisafreeaccessforUkrainianstoEUcountriesisexpectedtofollowinthenottoodistantfuture.
Butamidthesepositivedevelopmentsabadideaisfloatingaround:todevelopclosetiesbetweentheEUandtheRussianledeconomicblocin
whatisknownastheEurasianEconomicUnion(EAEU).PushedbyGermanMinisterforForeignAffairsFrankWalterSteinmeierandEuropean
CommissionPresidentJeanClaudeJuncker,thisproposalshouldbekilledbeforeitgainsmomentum.
InalettertoRussianPresidentVladimirPutinlastmonth,JunckerlamentedthedeclineinrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheEU,whichtomy
regrethavenotbeenabletodevelopoverthepastyear,hewrote.
InaseparatelettertoEUTradeCommissionerCeciliaMalmstrm,Steinmeierproposedtoraisetheprospectofastarttocooperationbetween
theEUandEurasianEconomicUnion,incombinationwithapeacefulsolutioninUkraine.
PutinhasdemonstratednointerestinimprovingrelationswiththeWest.
ItisPutinsunwillingnesstopulloutofUkraineandrespecthisneighborssovereigntyandterritorialintegritythatisbehindthedeclinein
relationsJunckerlaments.PutinsrecentmilitarystrikesagainstnonISILtargetsinSyriaarenothelpingandhaverampeduptheflowof
migrantsmakingtheirwaytoEurope.PutinhasdemonstratednointerestinimprovingrelationswiththeWest.
AndyetsomeEUofficialsstillseemdeterminedtoimproverelationswithRussia.TheWestneedsRussiatofightterrorismandcooperateinthe
MiddleEast,andtoestablishtiesbetweentheEUandEAEUwouldthrowabonePutinsway,theargumentgoes.
ButtosuggestparitybetweenthetwoentitieswouldunderminethelegitimacyofthedecadesoldEUandlendcredibilitytothenascentEAEU.
AspiringcountrieschoosetojointheEuropeanUnionoftheirownfreewill,andagreetosatisfystringentcriteriaandbevotedinbyexisting
memberstates.
JoiningtheEUwasbeneficialforthestatesthatjoinedafterthefalloftheBerlinWall.OthercountriestheBalkanstatesespecially,butalso
Ukraine,Georgia,andMoldovastillseektojoin,suggestingthattheEUmustbedoingsomethingright,despiteallofitstravails.
Bycontrast,countriesintheEurasianEconomicUnionArmenia,Belarus,KazakhstanandKyrgyzstan,alongwithRussiafacedtremendous
pressurefromMoscowandjoiningishardlyanoption.RussiausestheEAEUtoexerciseinfluenceoveritsneighborsandforeclosethepossibility
ofeverjoiningtheEuropeanUnion,reflectingPutinszerosumworldview.
RussiausestheEAEUtoexerciseinfluenceoveritsneighborsandforeclosethepossibilityofeverjoiningtheEuropeanUnion
PutinpressuredthenPresidentViktorYanukovychofUkraineintoabandoninghiscountrysintentiontosignagreementswiththeEUin2013and
jointheEurasianEconomicUnioninstead.ThedecisionprecipitatedtheMaidanRevolutionandYanukovychsdeparturefrompowerafew
monthslater.
LikeUkraine,ArmeniahadplannedtosignagreementswiththeEUin2013untilittoocameundermassivepressurefromRussiatoreversethose
plansandinsteadbecomeamemberofRussiasUnion.
LegitimizingtheEurasianUnionwouldbedemoralizingtothecountriesthatwereforcedtojoin.
UnlessanduntilthePutinregimerespectsthesovereigntyandterritorialintegrityofitsneighborsandreturnsCrimeatoUkraine,theEU
leadershipshouldrefrainfromcompromisingitsvaluesbyproposingbadideastoimprovetieswithRussia.
TheballisinMoscowscourt.ProposalslikeJunckersandSteinmeiersriskleavingPutinwiththeimpressionthattheEUisovereagerfora
returntobusinessasusualandthathecanoutlasttheEUonsanctions.
TheEUleadershipshouldrefrainfromcompromisingitsvaluesbyproposingbadideastoimprovetieswithRussia.
JunckerhastaskedEuropeanUnionofficialstostudyoptionstobringtheEUandEAEUclosertogetherandsuggesteditshouldbesynchronized
withimplementationoftheMinskagreements,thepeacedealforUkraine.Lithuaniasforeignminister,LinasLinkevicius,hasvoicedstrong
objectionstoJunckersproposal.
Therewerealways,alwaysdoubts,aboutthisdialogue[betweentheEUandEAEU]formanyreasons,andIbelievetodayisnotthebesttiming,
franklyspeaking,Linkeviciussaid.Theideaofthosewhosuggestsomethinginordertoappease;again,thatisthewrongidea.OtherEU
officialsneedtojoinLinkeviciusinhisoppositiontotheEUscurrentstrategy.
JunckerandSteinmeierarenotthefirsttoproposetreatingtheEUandEAEUasequals,asawaytoextendanolivebranchtoPutin.In
anarticlemorethanayearagofortheEuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations,IvanKrastevandMarkLeonardwrote:Europemust
acknowledgethatithasfailedtounderstandpostSovietRussia.InsteadtheEUmustcoexistwithitspowerfulneighbor,perhapsbycooperating
withRussiasownintegrationproject,theEurasianUnionTheEAEUiscertainlynottheanswertoeverythingbutitcouldbeastarttowards
negotiatinganewEuropeaninstitutionalorder.
Itwasabadideaayearagoandhasnotimprovedwithage.DelayingUkrainestradedealwiththeEUbyayeartoappeaseRussiawasa
mistake,anditshouldnotbecompoundedbytreatingtheEUandEAEUasequals.Theyarewhollydissimilarentities,andnofurthertimeshould
bewastedintryingtotreatthemotherwise.
DavidJ.KramerisseniordirectorforhumanrightsanddemocracyatTheMcCainInstituteforInternationalLeadershipinWashington,DC.
Subject:RussiatosuspendUkrainetradepact-BBC
News[ED:BlessinginDisguise....ActuallyMaybea
ConcessionByRUthatUAWillBeintheEUFreeTrade
ZoneafterJan12016]
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35114971
RussiatosuspendUkrainetradepact

GettyImages

Russia'spresidentVladimirPutinhassignedadecreethat
willexcludeUkrainefromafreetradezonethat
includesformerSovietcountriesfrom1January.
UkraineplanstojoinanEUfreetradezonefromthatdate.
MrPutincited"extraordinarycircumstancesaffectingthe
interestsandeconomicsecurity"ofRussia.
TensionsbetweenthecountrieshavebeenhighsinceRussia
annexedUkraine'sCrimeanpeninsulalastyear.
KievandtheWesthavealsoaccusedRussiaofaidingpro-
Moscowseparatistsintheeastofthecountry.
ThedecreewillannulaRussiandealwithUkrainedating
backto2011,accordingtotheRussianInterfaxnews
agency.
RussiasaystheUkraine-EUdealcouldleadtoEuropean
importscomingacrossitsownborders.
'Readytopaytheprice'
Ukraineexpectssomeeconomicdamageasaresultofthe
decree,saidPresidentPetroPoroshenko.
"Ukraineisawareoftheserestrictionsandtheexpected
damagetotheUkrainianeconomy.Butwearereadyto
paythispriceforourfreedomandourEuropeanchoice."
hesaid.
Meanwhile,theUkrainiangovernmenthassaiditwillban
tradewithCrimeain30days'time.
ButRussianeconomyministerAlexeyUlyukaevtoldthe
BBCthatRussiawasstillopentonegotiation
withbothUkraineandtheEuropeanUnion.
"Negotiationswilltakeplace,ofcourse,"MrUlyukaev
said,addingthatRussiahadn't"closedthedoor"ona
dealifthereis"goodwill"amongtheparticipants.
HesaidRussiahadproposed"athree-waysystemof
informationexchange"inUkraine,allowingtheorigin
ofproductstobetracked.
Thatproposalwasstillonthetable,hesaid,butafter1
Januarytherewouldbe"adifferenteconomicreality".
From:CGJP
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at11:05AM
Subject:RussiatosuspendUkrainetradepact[The
OriginalUKAZ....InRU]
http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001201512160035
Subject:Putin:TurkishdowningofRussianplanewas'enemyact'-CNN.com

http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/17/europe/putin-annual-press-conference/index.html
PutinsaysTurkishdowningofRussianplanewasan
'enemyact'
(CNN)(CNN)--RussianPresidentVladimirPutin,pugnaciousasalways,calledtheTurkishdowningofaRussianwar
plane"anenemyact"
andrejectedinternationaleffortstooustSyrianleaderBasharal-Assad.
TurkishF-16sshotdowntheRussianSu-24onNovember24,sayingtheRussianplanewasoverTurkishairspaceandignored
warningstochangecourse.OneofthetwoRussianpilotswaskilled.
PutinsaidTurkeyhadotheroptions.
"Woulditnotjusthavebeeneasierjusttopickupthephone?"PutinaskedathisannualpressconferenceinMoscow.
'Thiswasastabintheback
PutinalsoappearedtotakeaimatTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogan.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin(R)andTurkishPrimeMinisterRecepTayyipErdoganattendapressconferencein2012.
"ThereisaproblemwiththeTurkishleadership,"Putinsaid.
HecriticizedTurkishofficialsforgettingintouchwithNATOratherthanchoosingfirsttotalkwithRussia.
"Didtheythinkwe'drunaway?"Putinasked."No,we'renotthatkindofcountry."
Onthecontrary,Putinsaid,RussiahasincreaseditsaviationpresenceinSyria.
"Thiswasastabintheback,"Putinsaid."Oninterstatelevel,Idonotseetheprospectforimprovingrelations."
Putin:OnlytheSyrianpeoplecandecide
HealsorejectedinternationalefforttooustSyrianleaderBasharal-Assad.
ManyWesternleadershavesaidthatAssad,whoisblamedforthedeathsoftensofthousandsofhiscitizens,
cannotbepartofSyria'sfuture.
PutinsaysonlytheSyrianpeoplecandecidewhetherBasharal-Assadstaysofgoes.
ButPutinsaidhewouldneveragreetooutsidersdeterminingSyria'spoliticalfuture.
"OnlytheSyrianpeoplecandeterminewhoshouldgovernthemandunderwhatstandards,whatrules,"
Putinsaid.
PutindeclinedtocommentontheU.S.presidentialelection.
"Whoeveritis,wearereadyandwewanttodevelopourrelationswiththeUnitedStates,"hesaid.
"WearegoingtoworkwithanypresidenttheAmericanpeoplevotefor."
Subject:PutinpoursfreshscornonTurkeyfordowningRussianjet-BBCNews
ED:VLADCHANNELINGHISINNERTRUMP:
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasusedcrudelanguageinafuriousnewattackonTurkeyoverthedowningofa
Russiancombatjetlastmonth.
TheincidentontheSyria-Turkeyborderwasa"hostileact"butRussiawas"notthecountry"torunaway,hetoldhisannualnews
conference.
PutinpoursfreshscornonTurkeyfordowning
Russianjet
APMr
Putingivinghisnewsconference
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasusedcrudelanguageinafuriousnewattackonTurkeyoverthedowning
ofaRussiancombatjetlastmonth.
TheincidentontheSyria-Turkeyborderwasa"hostileact"butRussiawas"notthecountry"torunaway,hetoldhis
annualnewsconference.
RussiadeployeditsairforcetoSyriainSeptemberinsupportofPresidentBasharal-Assadandhasbeencarryingoutair
strikesonhisopponents.
ItsinterventionhasbeenheavilycriticisedbyTurkey,theUSandGulfArabstates.
MrPutinisnowintohisthirdtermaspresidentsince2000,battlinganeconomiccrisis.Criticssaycivillibertieshavebeen
steadilyerodedunderhisrule.
Heremainsoneoftheworld'smostrecognisablepoliticians,andhastoppedthelistofTheWorld'sMostPowerfulPeople
compiledbyForbesmagazineforthethirdyearrunning.
Twitter
FollowtheBBC'sSteveRosenbergonTwitterforlivecoverageofthePutinnewsconference.
MrPutinsaidTurkishofficialsshouldhavepickedupthephonetotalktoRussiaabouttheirconcernsthatairstrikesin
SyriawerehittingTurkmenrebels.
Turkey,hesaid,hadachievednothingbyshootingdownthejetwhileRussiahadbolstereditspresenceinSyriaby
deployinganti-aircraftmissiles.
OnAmerica,hesaidRussiawantedtodeveloprelations"irrespective"ofwhowouldbecomeitsnextpresident.
Onotherissuesraisedatthenewsconference,PresidentPutin
PraisedSeppBlatterandsuggestedthesuspendedheadofFifashouldbeawardedtheNobelPeacePrize
SaidRussiawasagainstdopingasit"destroyedtheprincipleofcompetitivesport",andanyonefoundguiltyshould
bepunished
DeniedRussianregulartroopsweredeployedinrebel-heldeasternUkrainebutsaidtherecouldbe"peoplethere
whowerecarryingoutcertaintasksincludinginthemilitarysphere"
PredictedeconomicgrowthinRussiathenewyearof0.7%,risingto1.9%in2017and2.4%in2018,basedon
oilat$50abarrel
MrPutinsaidhiscountry'seconomiccrisishadpeaked.
Whileoilpriceshadfallensharply,hesaid,manufacturinghadshownslightgrowthandtherewasahealthytradebalance
inagriculture.
"Oureconomydependsonoilandgasprices,weexpectedBrenttobeworth$100dollarsperbarrel,butthenitwas50,
butthiswasanoptimisticpredictiontoo,ourforecastshavetobeamendedagain,"MrPutinsaid.
"GDPisfalling,inflationis12.3%,incomes,investmentarefallingtoobutthepeakoftheeconomiccrisisisover."
Putin's'gunslinger'style
GettyImages
AnalysisbyPhilippaRoxby,BBCNews
EvernoticedthatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasanunusualwalkingstyle?Hedoesnotswinghisrightarmmuchat
allwhenhewalks-insteadallthemovementisontheleftsideofthebody,givinghimaverydistinctlop-sidedgait.
AteamofEuropeanneurologistsanalysedcountlessYouTubevideosofthepresidentandothertopRussianofficialsto
findoutwhy.
Theydiscoveredthattheyallhadasimilargait,anditisprobablylinkedtotheirKGBmilitarytrainingwhichrequiresthem
tokeeptheirweaponsclosetotheirchestorintherighthand,givingthemtimetodrawagunonanunexpectedenemy.
Asaresult,onlytheleftarmmovesfreely.
SoPresidentPutinofficiallyhasa"gunslinger'sgait"-butdoctorsshouldbeawarethatareducedrightarmswingcanalso
beanearlysignofParkinson'sdiseasetoo,theBritishMedicalJournalresearchsays.
MrPutinisknownforhismarathonperformancesathisnewsconferences,wherehefrequentlyuseshard-hitting,colourful
language.
InaninterviewwithstateTVonWednesdayevening,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaidRussiawasatargetina
"biginformationwar[which]hasbeenwagedforalongtime".
Lastyear,MrPutin'sannualnewsconferencelastedthreehoursand10minutes,whiletherecordwassetin2008atfour
hours40minutes.
From:StepanKaczurak<kaczurak@verizon.net>
Date:Wed,Dec16,2015at11:25PM
Subject:MotylonforgettingUkraine'shistory....[PLUSVovochka]
To:
December16,20154:57PMSubject:MotylonforgettingUkraine'shistory
OnNovember25,2010,whileonastatevisittoKyiv,Israel'sPresident
ShimonPeresstatedthat,"IfUkrainiansweretoaskmeforadvice,I
wouldsay:forgethistory."Comingfromthepresidentofacountry
steepedinhistory,thecommentwasatfirstglancebizarre.Directedat
acountryembroiledinseeminglyendlesscontentiousdebatesoverits
history,theadvicewasatsecondglanceintriguing.Butcanhistorybe
forgotten?Andwouldforgettingbedesirable,evenifpossible?Andwhat
wouldforgettingmeanforacountrysuchasUkraine,whichhopestoput
itsSovietpastbehinditwhilediscoveringtheneglectedpagesofits
history?
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/should-ukraine-forget-its-history
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
ALEXANDERMOTYL:VOVOCHKA:TheTrueConfessionsofVladimirPutin'sBest
FriendandConfidant
"ThisbookislongoverdueasendupofRussianPresidentVladimir
Putin,themachohorsemanandjudomastersooftenphotographedwith
ripplingpecs.Thereality,saysthiscomicnovel,isquitethe
opposite."--MichaelJohnson,TheAmericanSpectator
http://spectator.org/articles/64663/russia%E2%80%99s-macho-leader-exposed
INTERVIEWWITHA.MOTYLABOUTVOVOCHKA:
http://www.e-ir.info/2015/12/08/on-putin-politics-and-popular-culture-an-interview-with-alexander-j-motyl/
ToorderVOVOCHKA:
http://www.amazon.com/Vovochka-Confessions-Vladimir-Putins-Confidant/dp/1681142015/ref=sr_1_1?
s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1444815786&sr=1-1&keywords=motyl+vovochka
Subject:UkraineatransitcountryforIslamicStatefighters,officialssay
Thiscouldplayeitherway--areasontostepupaidtoUkraine(includingmilitary)toclosetheborderwithRussiaorareasontobuild
paranoiaaboutUkraineasPutinbegins"anti-terrorist"militaryactionsinUkraine.
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/kyiv-post-plus/ukraine-a-transit-country-for-islamic-state-fighters-officials-say-404387.html
Subject:PutinadmitsRUtroopsinUA
Walter,
WiththeseemingacknowledgementbyUAthatISISisusingUAasarouteintoEurope,Putincouldbesettingthestageforjustifying
RUtroopsinUAbyclaiminghe'sfightingISISwhereverhefindthem.AccusingtheUAgovernmentofeithercomplicityor
ineptnesswithISISwouldbealogicalnextstepforPutinatthisstage,furtherjustifyinghismilitaryactivityinUA,uptoandincluding
regimechange.ThiswouldbeatoughPRchallengeforUAanditcouldgaintractioninthecurrent"anti-terrorist'mediahysteria.
Peter
Senttime: 11/29/201503:54:42AM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: Ex-CIAchief:FearforenvironmentstaysUShandonISISoilwells|TheHill
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/261283-ex-cia-chief-fear-for-environment-stays-us-hand-on-isis-oil-wells
Ex-CIAchief:FearforenvironmentstaysUShand
onISISoilwells
AformerCIAdirectorsaysconcernsaboutenvironmentalimpacthavepreventedtheWhiteHousefrombombingoil
wellsthatfinancetheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria(ISIS).
Wedidntgoafteroilwells,actuallyhittingoilwellsthatISIScontrols,becausewedidntwanttodoenvironmental
damage,andwedidntwanttodestroythatinfrastructure,MichaelMorellsaidTuesdayonPBSsCharlieRose.
Morellcautionedthathedoesnotsitintheroomanymorewherestrategicdecisionsaremade,butsaidpriortothe
Paristerroristattackearlierthismonth,Thereseemedtohavebeenajudgmentthat,look,wedontwanttodestroy
theseoiltankersbecausethatsinfrastructurethatsgoingtobenecessarytosupportthepeoplewhenISISisntthere
anymore,anditsgoingtocreateenvironmentaldamage.
SincetheattackonParis,theU.S.hastriedtocutofftheterroristorganizationsrevenuestreambybombingoil
trucks.
Sonowwerehittingoiltrucks,Morellsaid.Andmaybeyougettothepointwhereyousay,wealsohavetohitoil
wells.
Sothosearethekindoftoughdecisionsyouhavetomake,headded.
ISIShasaccumulatedmillionsofdollarstofunditsmilitaryoperationsbyproducingandexportingoilinthepartsof
IraqandSyriaunderitscontrol.
DonaldTrumpandotherRepublicanprimarycandidateshaveforcefullyadvocatedstrikingthegroupsoil
reservesandotherfinancialresources.
Senttime: 12/07/201512:28:35PM
Subject: FredKaplan--PresidentObamaSundaynightspeechofferedanhonestassessmentofhowtodefeatISIS
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2015/12/president_obama_sunday_night_speech_offered_an_honest_assessment_of_how.html
ThepresidentdoesnthaveanymagicsolutionsfordefeatingISIS.Andneitherdoes
anyoneelse.
PresidentBarackObamaaddressesthecountryfromtheOvalOfficeonDec.6,2015inWashington,D.C.
PhotobySaulLoebPool/GettyImages
Thequestion,afterPresidentObamasprime-timetelevisedspeechSundaynight,iswhethercommonsenseandanawarenessoflimitsstillhaveaplaceinAmericanpolitics.
FredKaplan
Hehasdeliveredsimilarspeechesbefore,thoughthisonewasmoreforcefulintoneandmorespecificinlanguage,layingouttheelementsofwhattodo,andnotdo,inabulletformat.(FirstSecond
Third)Hiscriticshadfailedtovoiceanysubstantivealternativestohispreviousproposals.Whenamoderatorwouldaskwhatthecriticswoulddodifferently,theyhadnoanswer,exceptforsomewho
thoughtthatrepeatingthewordsradicalIslamwhiledroppingsmartbombswouldsomehowmakethewargofaster.
Obamalistedthethingsthatheandotherworldleadershavedone,andsteppedupdoingsincetheattacksinParis.Athome,lawenforcementandintelligencehavethwartedcountlessplots.Abroad,the
militaryhasmountedairstrikes,trainedandequippedSyriansandIraqisfightingISISontheground,sentspecial-operationsforcestoacceleratethoseefforts,andsurgedintelligence-sharing,whilediplomats
aretryingtonegotiateapoliticalcease-fireinSyria,sothatthecoalitionofcountriesincludingRussia,heintriguinglynotedcanpursuetheircommoninterestofdefeatingISIS.(TheWhiteHousealso
putoutafactsheet,cataloguingtheseactivitiesinsomewhatgreaterdetail.)
Willanyoftheseremarksassuage
widespreadfearsaboutterroristattacksin
theholidayseasonandbeyond?
HeproposedafewthingsCongresscoulddo:passalawforbiddinganyoneonaterroristwatchlistfrombuyingsemi-automaticweapons(thefactthatSenateRepublicansvoteddownsuchabillis
staggering)stepupscreeningsforthosewhocometotheUnitedStates(thatshouldbepopular)andpassabillauthorizingthepresidenttousemilitaryforceagainstISIS(congressionalRepublicans
persistentrefusaltodosoreflectsanunwillingnesstoshareanyresponsibilityforthewarthattheykeeppushingObamatowagemorefiercely).
Finally,helistedafewthingsthecountryshouldnotdo:sendthousandsofU.S.troopstoalong,costlygroundwarinIraqorSyria(whichwouldonlyspurpro-ISISrecruitment)anddefinethewaras
Americavs.Islam(whichwouldalsoplayintoISISpropaganda,aswellasalienatemorethan1billionMuslimsworldwidewhiledefamingmillionsofpatrioticMuslimAmericans.)Yet,atthesametime
thatheurgedallAmericanstorejectdiscrimination,healsocalledonMuslimAmericanstoconfronttheirresponsibilityfordefeatingtheradicalideologyinfectingtheircommunities,withoutexcuse.
Willanyoftheseremarksassuagewidespreadfearsaboutterroristattacksintheholidayseasonandbeyond?Probablynot.Whatcouldheoranyoneelsehavesaidthatmighthavehadthateffect?Idont
know,andneitherdoesanyoneelse.
AfterSundaynightsspeech,DonaldTrump,theRepublicanfront-runner,tweeted,Isthatallthereis?WeneedanewPresidentFAST!AsforwhatTrumpwoulddoifhewerethenewpresident,his
follow-uptweetssuppliednoclue:WishObamawouldsayISIS,likealmosteveryoneelse,ratherthanISIL.And:HeneedstostopallVisas,notlookatthem.Theformerissillygrumbling,thelatter
impracticalnonsense.
Inthepast,TrumphasalsosaidhewouldbombtheshitoutofISIS.Sen.TedCruzone-uppedhimthisweekend,tellingacrowd,Wewillcarpet-bombthemintooblivion,adding,Idontknowif
sandcanglowinthedark,butweregoingtofindout.Dothesecandidatesknowwhattheyresaying?IsCruzreallythreateningtodropnuclearbombsintheSyriandesert?ItsnotasifISISiscamped
outsidetowns,awayfrompopulatedcities,anditsnotasiftheresidentsofthosecitiesareallmembersofISISoratwarwithus.Bycomparison,Sen.LindseyGraham,whoadvocatessending20,000
AmericangroundtroopstoIraqandSyria(apositionthatalmostnoonesupports,includingTrump,Cruz,oranythingclosetoamajorityofcongressionalRepublicans),seemsmoderate.
Obamadoesnthavedramaticanswers.ThelastfewlinesofhisspeechWeareontherightsideofhistoryandFreedomismorepowerfulthanfearareclich.HegelandMarxnotwithstanding,
historyhasnojuggernautmomentumithasnorightorwrongside.Andwhilefreedomiscertainlynoblerthanfear,therehavebeenmanymomentsinhistorywhenfearhasbeenamorepowerfulimpulse.
Butnooneelse,leastofallthelikesofTrump,Cruz,andGraham,hasanydramaticanswerseither.Obamahaslaidoutaroad.Criticswhohaveneverbeendealthardquestionsonthesubjectsoonreveal
thattheirroaddoesntlookverydifferent.SomehavecalledthewaragainstgroupslikeISISalongwar.Therearenomagicbulletsorbuzzwords.
Senttime: 11/28/201503:03:31AM
To: spirob7@gmail.com
Subject: WaronISIL:IsTurkeyReallyattheTable?-POLITICOMagazine(theconsequencesofpremeditatedstupidity)
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/isil-strategy-turkey-213392?paginate=false
IsTurkeyReallyattheTable?
WashingtonAndTheWorld
ItclaimstobepartofthesolutioninfightingISIL,butoftenitsbeenpartoftheproblem.
ToWesterners,itmightseemthatVladimirPutinwasexaggeratinginangerwhen,afteraTurkishF-16onTuesday
shotdownaRussianfighterjetallegedlyviolatingTurkishairspace,hereferredtothegovernmentinAnkaraas
terroristsaccomplices.
AmericansarentusedtothinkingofTurkeyourNATOallyandmostpowerfulbackstopintheMuslimworldin
thisway.AndsurelyPutinisjustengaginginsomesaber-rattling.ButasTurkeyandRussiadisputetheincident,itis
castingaspotlightononeofthemosttroublingdevelopmentsintheevolvingstruggleintheMiddleEast:Whenit
comestofightingtheIslamicStateandextremismmoregenerally,TurkeyandPresidentRecepTayyipErdogan
hasbecomeasignificantpartoftheproblem,ratherthanpartofthesolution.
Youwouldntknowthisfromtheofficialrhetoric.NATOisstandingfirmlybyTurkeyinthewakeofTuesdays
incident.AndtheObamaadministrationoftentrumpetsthecriticalimportanceofTurkeysparticipationinthe
internationalcoalitiontocounterISIL.BrettMcGurk,thespecialpresidentialenvoyforthatcoalition,toldTurkeys
HurriyetDailyNewsthissummerthattheUnitedStatescantsucceedagainstDaesh[theIslamicState]without
Turkey.AndafterabloodytwoweeksduringwhichISILclaimedcreditfortheParisshootingandbombingspree,
thekillingof43peopleinanotherbombinginBeirutandthedowningofaRussianairlinerovertheSinaiPeninsula
Erdogan,anIslamistwhorunsacountrythatis99.8percentMuslim,appearedwithPresidentBarackObamaahead
oftheG-20summitinAntalyaandspokefirmlyagainstjihadism:Weareconfrontedwithacollectiveterrorism
activityaroundtheworld.Asyouknow,terrorismdoesnotrecognizeanyreligion,anyrace,anynationorany
country.AndthisterroristactionisnotonlyagainstthepeopleofFrance.Itisanactionagainstallofthepeopleof
theglobe.
Fortheuninitiated,Erdogansstatementmusthaveseemedheartening.ButcloseobserversofTurkeyknowbetter:
Overthepastfiveyears,Americanpolicymakers,Turkeywatchers,terrorismexpertsandaslewofjournalistshave
cometounderstandthatwhileAnkaracanplayaconstructiveroleincombatingextremismandresolvingtheSyrian
conflict,ithaschosennotto.Andasthatconflictspreadsandjumpsborders,theTurksmyopiaonjihadisminSyria
mayverywellcomebacktohauntthemandtheirWesternallies.
Ofcourse,theTurksdidntstartthewaracrosstheirborderinSyria,inwhathasbecomeISILsbreedingground.In
fact,byTurkeysownaccounts,itmadehugediplomaticeffortswithSyrianPresidentBasharAssadtoheadoffthat
conflictwhencivilwarbegantoeruptinthesummerof2011.ThatSyriahasdescendedintounspeakableviolenceis
firstandforemostthefaultofAssad,hisenablersinTehranandtheKremlin,andHezbollah,whichhasprovidedthe
manpowertofightalongsideAssadsarmyandmilitias.TheTurksalsodeservecreditforhowtheyhavehandledthe
flowofmorethan2millionSyrianrefugeesintotheircountry:Turkeyhasspent$7billiontocareforthesepeople,in
well-organizedrefugeecampsthatmeetinternationalstandards.
Still,thechoicesthatErdoganandtopTurkishofficialshavemadecontributedtothevortexofviolenceand
extremismthatisSyriasreality.Erdoganhasneverpaidapriceforthesechoiceseitherathome,wherehehas
hollowedoutTurkishpoliticalinstitutionstoensurehisgriponpower,orabroad,whereTurkeysNATOalliesare
forcedtopretend,bydintofcircumstanceandgeography,thatAnkarasharestheirgoals.
ItallstartswithTurkeysdecade-oldrelationshipwithAssad.Inthemid-2000s,Erdogan,whowasthentheprime
minister,andthethreeforeignministerswhoservedhimAbdullahGul,AliBabacanandAhmetDavutoglu
cultivatedAssad.Theirgoalswerebotheconomicandstrategic:toimproveandexpandrelationswithSyriaand
therebyprovidealandbridgeforTurkishtradetothePersianGulfviaJordan,aswellastopeelDamascusaway
fromTehran.Theresultwasafloweringofrelationsthatincludedincreasedtradeandinvestment,security
cooperationandjointcabinetmeetingsErdoganeveninvitedtheAssadfamilyonvacation(thoughthetripnever
actuallymaterialized).
ButoncetheSyrianuprisingbeganinMarch2011,ErdoganandDavutogludiscoveredtheyhadbeenplayed.Assad
liedtobothmen,twicerenegingonpromisestoimplementpoliticalreformstostemtheunrestinSyria,andinstead
turningtoIranforsupport.AstheSyrianconflictintensifiedin2011,refugeesfloodedacrossthelongTurkishborder
andSyrianartilleryshellsfellonTurkishterritory.Ankaralookedpowerlesstorespond.Notonlywastheconflictin
SyriaasecuritythreattoTurkeyonethatwouldgrowovertimebutErdogan,whoisnotusedtofailing,seemed
deeplylividthatAssadhadspurnedhiscounsel.
Bylatesummer2011,ErdoganhadgivenuponAssad,andAnkarahadbecometheleadinginternationaladvocate
fortheendoftheAssadregime.YettheTurksweresooncaughtoffguardbytheirowndiplomaticimpotenceand
unwillingnesstoventureintothegrowingmaelstromontheirown.Inmid-2012,aftertheSyriansshotdownaTurkish
reconnaissanceplaneoperatingoffSyriascoast,AnkararepeatedlyappealedtoWashingtontointerveneinSyria
andbringtheAssadregimedown.Thiswasanothermiscalculation.Obama,havingnointentionofdeployingforces
totheMiddleEast,demurred.WiththeirSyriapolicyintattersandanunwillingallyinWashington,Ankara
determinedthattheonlywaytorespondtoAssadwastoturnablindeyetotheincreasingnumberofradicalized
youngmenwhobeganusingtheirterritorytowagejihadagainstAssad.
AmericanandEuropeanofficialsfirstraisedconcernsin2012thatjihadistswereusingAtaturkInternationalAirport
inIstanbultomaketheirwaytotheTurkishcityofGaziantepbeforeheadingintoSyrianterritorytotakeupthefight.
ButtheTurksdraggedtheirfeetonimposingbordercontrols,andinsteadchargedthatEuropewasnotproviding
themtimelyintelligenceabouttheBelgians,GermansandFrenchmancomingTurkeysway.
Overtime,extremismbecameaveritableinstrumentofTurkishstatecraftandalso,notsurprisingly,athreatwithin
Turkeysborders.Turkey,alongwithanotherproblematicAmericanally,SaudiArabia,hasprovidedsupportto
Ahraral-Sham,whichinturnisallegedtohaveprovidedassistancetoJabhatalNusra,bothSyrianrebelgroupsthat
arelinkedtoAlQaeda.ItstruethesetwoorganizationshavemadegainsagainstAssad,butthatdoesntmakethem
anylessextremist.AndwhileAnkaramightthinkitcancontrolthesegroups,itclearlycannot:WithinTurkeys
borders,extremistshavebuiltuptheirowninfrastructure,includingcommunicationsnetworks,safehouses,medical
facilitiesandillicitcommercethatexisttosupportthefightinSyria.Itwouldbenaivetothinkthatthiscouldnotbe
usedinafightagainstTurkey.
WhatabouttheIslamicState?TurkishpolicemayhavearrestedaBelgianconnectedtotheParisattackstogreat
fanfarelastweek.ButcriticshaveallegedthatErdogansgovernmenthasbeenunwillingtoshutdownsupplylines
fromTurkeytoterritorycontrolledbyISIL.Asdangerousasthegroupis,ithasalsoprovedausefulenemyoftwoof
Turkeysmostimportantadversaries,AssadandtheKurds.Certainly,questionsaboutTurkeysconducttowardthe
groupremainunanswered.Forinstance,givenalltheviolencethatAbuBakral-BaghdadisISILfollowershave
visitedonfellowMuslims,whywere46TurksthatISILtookhostageinMosulreleasedunharmed?Turkishand
WesternobserversspeculatedthattheTurksprovidedcashorgunsorbothtosecurethereleaseofthesediplomats
andtheirfamilies,butneitherErdogannoranyotherTurkishofficialprovidedaclearexplanation.
Meanwhile,fromthetimetheObamaadministrationfirstputtogetheritsanti-ISILstrategyinthesummerof2014,the
Turkshavebeennoticeablyambivalentaboutit.GiventheirproximitytoSyriaandtheextremistsintheirmidst,
TurkishofficialsworrythatiftheytakeonISIL,thegroupwillstageretaliatoryattackslikeParisorBeirutin
IstanbulorAnkara.FromTurkeysperspective,theweakeningISILseemedtoemboldenKurdishnationalisma
significantproblemwhen20percentoftheTurkishpopulationisKurdish,manyofthemalienatedandangry.And
finally,theAmericanapproachdidnottargettheAssadregimedirectly,whichAnkarainsistsisthecauseoftheISIS
problem.YetevenafterISILkilled134TurkishcitizensinSurucneartheTurkish-SyrianborderandAnkara,the
TurkshavenotexactlytakenthefighttoISILsheadquartersinRaqqa.
InJuly,Turkeyannouncedthatitwasgivinganti-ISILforcesexpandedaccesstoitsairbasestoconductcombat
operations,andthatAnkarawouldjointhefight.Butthisapparentturningpointhasnotliveduptoitsbilling.While
AmericanandalliedaircrewsarenowflyingregularcombatmissionsfromIncirlikairbaseinSouthernTurkey,the
Turksthemselves,assomanyexpected,havespentconsiderablymoretimeattackingtheKurdistanWorkersParty
(PKK),aterroristorganizationthathasbeenwagingafightagainstTurkeysincethemid-1980s.Turkeyhasevery
righttodefenditself,ofcourse,butitalsohappensthatthePKKanditsSyrianaffiliate,thePeoplesProtectionUnits
(YPG),whichhascoordinateddirectlywiththeUnitedStates,haveproventhemselvestobeeffectivegroundforces
inthefightagainstISIL.TheTurks,basedontheirownactionsandstatements,appearmoreconcernedwithsnuffing
outanindependentKurdishcantoninSyriaandbattlingthePKKthanfightingISILmilitants.Erdoganhasbeenclear
thathewillneverallowtheemergenceofWesternKurdistaninnorthernSyria.Echoingthatsentiment,lastJunethe
pro-governmentdailySabahranaheadlinecallingthepoliticalaffiliateoftheYPGmoredangerousthanISIS.
ItisnotasifTurkeyhasdonenothingagainsttheIslamicState,butthevalueithasaddedisactuallyquitelimited
beyondrealestate.IfnotforthoserunwaysatIncirlikandelsewhereinTurkeysocrucialtotheanti-ISILcoalition,
ErdoganwouldnotcrediblybeabletosaythethingshesaidattheG-20summit.ThereinliesthereasonErdoganis
theTeflonDonofTurkishpolitics.TheexistenceofIncirlikalongwiththefactthatTurkeysharesa500-mile
borderwithSyria,andistheNATOoutpostclosesttotheconflictinSyriaisErdogansget-out-of-jailcard.Like
thelatemobsterJohnGotti,whomfederalprosecutorspursuedrelentlesslyinthe1980s,nothingsticksonErdogan.
AnditsnotjustenablingjihadisoragreeingtofighttheIslamicStatewithoutreallyfightingtheIslamicStateathome,
ErdoganhascrushedtheTurkishpress,clampeddownonsocialmedia,rerunanelectionearlierthisyearbecausethe
initialresultwasntgoodenoughandmadesurehisson-in-lawwasappointedenergyminister.YetAmericanssay
naryawordaboutErdogansthuggishapproachtodomesticandforeignpolicy.GermanysAngelaMerkeleven
showedupinAnkarainOctoberwithabunchofgoodiestohelptheTurkishleaderspartyregainaparliamentary
majority.ItsgoodtobeErdogan.Intheinterestofallianceunityandsolidarity,hewillgetafurtherpassfromhis
NATOalliesnowthattheplaneincidenthasraisedtensionsbetweenAnkaraandMoscow.
TherearefewwithintheObamaadministrationwhogenuinelyseemtobelieveTurkeycanbepartofthesolutionin
Syria.WashingtonappearshappyjusttohaveaccesstoTurkishterritory,whichisapparentlywhytheWhiteHouse
hasbeensopubliclyaccommodatingtowardErdogan.AfterayearoftoughnegotiationswiththeTurksoverIncirlik,
theydontwanttorisklosingtheaccess.TheAmericanpolicytowardTurkeymustremindanyonewithchildrenof
thefirstruleofdaycare:Yougetwhatyouget,andyoudontgetupset.
GivenhowWashingtonhasdefinedthegravityoftheISILthreatandtheimportanceofTurkeysairbasesinthefight
againstextremism,thebenefitsofthisapproachmayverywelloutweighitscosts.ButaslongasWashington
determinesnottocallouttheTurkishgovernmentforitsbadbehavior,Ankarawillcontinuetosowchaos.
StevenA.CookistheEniEnricoMatteiSeniorFellowforMiddleEastandAfricaStudiesattheCouncilon
ForeignRelations.Hisbook,ThwartedDreams:ViolenceandAuthoritarianismintheNewMiddleEast,willbe
publishedbyOxfordUniversityPressin2016.
ShowComments
Senttime: 11/28/201503:03:31AM
To: spirob7@gmail.com
Subject: WaronISIL:IsTurkeyReallyattheTable?-POLITICOMagazine(theconsequencesofpremeditatedstupidity)
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/isil-strategy-turkey-213392?paginate=false
IsTurkeyReallyattheTable?
WashingtonAndTheWorld
ItclaimstobepartofthesolutioninfightingISIL,butoftenitsbeenpartoftheproblem.
ToWesterners,itmightseemthatVladimirPutinwasexaggeratinginangerwhen,afteraTurkishF-16onTuesday
shotdownaRussianfighterjetallegedlyviolatingTurkishairspace,hereferredtothegovernmentinAnkaraas
terroristsaccomplices.
AmericansarentusedtothinkingofTurkeyourNATOallyandmostpowerfulbackstopintheMuslimworldin
thisway.AndsurelyPutinisjustengaginginsomesaber-rattling.ButasTurkeyandRussiadisputetheincident,itis
castingaspotlightononeofthemosttroublingdevelopmentsintheevolvingstruggleintheMiddleEast:Whenit
comestofightingtheIslamicStateandextremismmoregenerally,TurkeyandPresidentRecepTayyipErdogan
hasbecomeasignificantpartoftheproblem,ratherthanpartofthesolution.
Youwouldntknowthisfromtheofficialrhetoric.NATOisstandingfirmlybyTurkeyinthewakeofTuesdays
incident.AndtheObamaadministrationoftentrumpetsthecriticalimportanceofTurkeysparticipationinthe
internationalcoalitiontocounterISIL.BrettMcGurk,thespecialpresidentialenvoyforthatcoalition,toldTurkeys
HurriyetDailyNewsthissummerthattheUnitedStatescantsucceedagainstDaesh[theIslamicState]without
Turkey.AndafterabloodytwoweeksduringwhichISILclaimedcreditfortheParisshootingandbombingspree,
thekillingof43peopleinanotherbombinginBeirutandthedowningofaRussianairlinerovertheSinaiPeninsula
Erdogan,anIslamistwhorunsacountrythatis99.8percentMuslim,appearedwithPresidentBarackObamaahead
oftheG-20summitinAntalyaandspokefirmlyagainstjihadism:Weareconfrontedwithacollectiveterrorism
activityaroundtheworld.Asyouknow,terrorismdoesnotrecognizeanyreligion,anyrace,anynationorany
country.AndthisterroristactionisnotonlyagainstthepeopleofFrance.Itisanactionagainstallofthepeopleof
theglobe.
Fortheuninitiated,Erdogansstatementmusthaveseemedheartening.ButcloseobserversofTurkeyknowbetter:
Overthepastfiveyears,Americanpolicymakers,Turkeywatchers,terrorismexpertsandaslewofjournalistshave
cometounderstandthatwhileAnkaracanplayaconstructiveroleincombatingextremismandresolvingtheSyrian
conflict,ithaschosennotto.Andasthatconflictspreadsandjumpsborders,theTurksmyopiaonjihadisminSyria
mayverywellcomebacktohauntthemandtheirWesternallies.
Ofcourse,theTurksdidntstartthewaracrosstheirborderinSyria,inwhathasbecomeISILsbreedingground.In
fact,byTurkeysownaccounts,itmadehugediplomaticeffortswithSyrianPresidentBasharAssadtoheadoffthat
conflictwhencivilwarbegantoeruptinthesummerof2011.ThatSyriahasdescendedintounspeakableviolenceis
firstandforemostthefaultofAssad,hisenablersinTehranandtheKremlin,andHezbollah,whichhasprovidedthe
manpowertofightalongsideAssadsarmyandmilitias.TheTurksalsodeservecreditforhowtheyhavehandledthe
flowofmorethan2millionSyrianrefugeesintotheircountry:Turkeyhasspent$7billiontocareforthesepeople,in
well-organizedrefugeecampsthatmeetinternationalstandards.
Still,thechoicesthatErdoganandtopTurkishofficialshavemadecontributedtothevortexofviolenceand
extremismthatisSyriasreality.Erdoganhasneverpaidapriceforthesechoiceseitherathome,wherehehas
hollowedoutTurkishpoliticalinstitutionstoensurehisgriponpower,orabroad,whereTurkeysNATOalliesare
forcedtopretend,bydintofcircumstanceandgeography,thatAnkarasharestheirgoals.
ItallstartswithTurkeysdecade-oldrelationshipwithAssad.Inthemid-2000s,Erdogan,whowasthentheprime
minister,andthethreeforeignministerswhoservedhimAbdullahGul,AliBabacanandAhmetDavutoglu
cultivatedAssad.Theirgoalswerebotheconomicandstrategic:toimproveandexpandrelationswithSyriaand
therebyprovidealandbridgeforTurkishtradetothePersianGulfviaJordan,aswellastopeelDamascusaway
fromTehran.Theresultwasafloweringofrelationsthatincludedincreasedtradeandinvestment,security
cooperationandjointcabinetmeetingsErdoganeveninvitedtheAssadfamilyonvacation(thoughthetripnever
actuallymaterialized).
ButoncetheSyrianuprisingbeganinMarch2011,ErdoganandDavutogludiscoveredtheyhadbeenplayed.Assad
liedtobothmen,twicerenegingonpromisestoimplementpoliticalreformstostemtheunrestinSyria,andinstead
turningtoIranforsupport.AstheSyrianconflictintensifiedin2011,refugeesfloodedacrossthelongTurkishborder
andSyrianartilleryshellsfellonTurkishterritory.Ankaralookedpowerlesstorespond.Notonlywastheconflictin
SyriaasecuritythreattoTurkeyonethatwouldgrowovertimebutErdogan,whoisnotusedtofailing,seemed
deeplylividthatAssadhadspurnedhiscounsel.
Bylatesummer2011,ErdoganhadgivenuponAssad,andAnkarahadbecometheleadinginternationaladvocate
fortheendoftheAssadregime.YettheTurksweresooncaughtoffguardbytheirowndiplomaticimpotenceand
unwillingnesstoventureintothegrowingmaelstromontheirown.Inmid-2012,aftertheSyriansshotdownaTurkish
reconnaissanceplaneoperatingoffSyriascoast,AnkararepeatedlyappealedtoWashingtontointerveneinSyria
andbringtheAssadregimedown.Thiswasanothermiscalculation.Obama,havingnointentionofdeployingforces
totheMiddleEast,demurred.WiththeirSyriapolicyintattersandanunwillingallyinWashington,Ankara
determinedthattheonlywaytorespondtoAssadwastoturnablindeyetotheincreasingnumberofradicalized
youngmenwhobeganusingtheirterritorytowagejihadagainstAssad.
AmericanandEuropeanofficialsfirstraisedconcernsin2012thatjihadistswereusingAtaturkInternationalAirport
inIstanbultomaketheirwaytotheTurkishcityofGaziantepbeforeheadingintoSyrianterritorytotakeupthefight.
ButtheTurksdraggedtheirfeetonimposingbordercontrols,andinsteadchargedthatEuropewasnotproviding
themtimelyintelligenceabouttheBelgians,GermansandFrenchmancomingTurkeysway.
Overtime,extremismbecameaveritableinstrumentofTurkishstatecraftandalso,notsurprisingly,athreatwithin
Turkeysborders.Turkey,alongwithanotherproblematicAmericanally,SaudiArabia,hasprovidedsupportto
Ahraral-Sham,whichinturnisallegedtohaveprovidedassistancetoJabhatalNusra,bothSyrianrebelgroupsthat
arelinkedtoAlQaeda.ItstruethesetwoorganizationshavemadegainsagainstAssad,butthatdoesntmakethem
anylessextremist.AndwhileAnkaramightthinkitcancontrolthesegroups,itclearlycannot:WithinTurkeys
borders,extremistshavebuiltuptheirowninfrastructure,includingcommunicationsnetworks,safehouses,medical
facilitiesandillicitcommercethatexisttosupportthefightinSyria.Itwouldbenaivetothinkthatthiscouldnotbe
usedinafightagainstTurkey.
WhatabouttheIslamicState?TurkishpolicemayhavearrestedaBelgianconnectedtotheParisattackstogreat
fanfarelastweek.ButcriticshaveallegedthatErdogansgovernmenthasbeenunwillingtoshutdownsupplylines
fromTurkeytoterritorycontrolledbyISIL.Asdangerousasthegroupis,ithasalsoprovedausefulenemyoftwoof
Turkeysmostimportantadversaries,AssadandtheKurds.Certainly,questionsaboutTurkeysconducttowardthe
groupremainunanswered.Forinstance,givenalltheviolencethatAbuBakral-BaghdadisISILfollowershave
visitedonfellowMuslims,whywere46TurksthatISILtookhostageinMosulreleasedunharmed?Turkishand
WesternobserversspeculatedthattheTurksprovidedcashorgunsorbothtosecurethereleaseofthesediplomats
andtheirfamilies,butneitherErdogannoranyotherTurkishofficialprovidedaclearexplanation.
Meanwhile,fromthetimetheObamaadministrationfirstputtogetheritsanti-ISILstrategyinthesummerof2014,the
Turkshavebeennoticeablyambivalentaboutit.GiventheirproximitytoSyriaandtheextremistsintheirmidst,
TurkishofficialsworrythatiftheytakeonISIL,thegroupwillstageretaliatoryattackslikeParisorBeirutin
IstanbulorAnkara.FromTurkeysperspective,theweakeningISILseemedtoemboldenKurdishnationalisma
significantproblemwhen20percentoftheTurkishpopulationisKurdish,manyofthemalienatedandangry.And
finally,theAmericanapproachdidnottargettheAssadregimedirectly,whichAnkarainsistsisthecauseoftheISIS
problem.YetevenafterISILkilled134TurkishcitizensinSurucneartheTurkish-SyrianborderandAnkara,the
TurkshavenotexactlytakenthefighttoISILsheadquartersinRaqqa.
InJuly,Turkeyannouncedthatitwasgivinganti-ISILforcesexpandedaccesstoitsairbasestoconductcombat
operations,andthatAnkarawouldjointhefight.Butthisapparentturningpointhasnotliveduptoitsbilling.While
AmericanandalliedaircrewsarenowflyingregularcombatmissionsfromIncirlikairbaseinSouthernTurkey,the
Turksthemselves,assomanyexpected,havespentconsiderablymoretimeattackingtheKurdistanWorkersParty
(PKK),aterroristorganizationthathasbeenwagingafightagainstTurkeysincethemid-1980s.Turkeyhasevery
righttodefenditself,ofcourse,butitalsohappensthatthePKKanditsSyrianaffiliate,thePeoplesProtectionUnits
(YPG),whichhascoordinateddirectlywiththeUnitedStates,haveproventhemselvestobeeffectivegroundforces
inthefightagainstISIL.TheTurks,basedontheirownactionsandstatements,appearmoreconcernedwithsnuffing
outanindependentKurdishcantoninSyriaandbattlingthePKKthanfightingISILmilitants.Erdoganhasbeenclear
thathewillneverallowtheemergenceofWesternKurdistaninnorthernSyria.Echoingthatsentiment,lastJunethe
pro-governmentdailySabahranaheadlinecallingthepoliticalaffiliateoftheYPGmoredangerousthanISIS.
ItisnotasifTurkeyhasdonenothingagainsttheIslamicState,butthevalueithasaddedisactuallyquitelimited
beyondrealestate.IfnotforthoserunwaysatIncirlikandelsewhereinTurkeysocrucialtotheanti-ISILcoalition,
ErdoganwouldnotcrediblybeabletosaythethingshesaidattheG-20summit.ThereinliesthereasonErdoganis
theTeflonDonofTurkishpolitics.TheexistenceofIncirlikalongwiththefactthatTurkeysharesa500-mile
borderwithSyria,andistheNATOoutpostclosesttotheconflictinSyriaisErdogansget-out-of-jailcard.Like
thelatemobsterJohnGotti,whomfederalprosecutorspursuedrelentlesslyinthe1980s,nothingsticksonErdogan.
AnditsnotjustenablingjihadisoragreeingtofighttheIslamicStatewithoutreallyfightingtheIslamicStateathome,
ErdoganhascrushedtheTurkishpress,clampeddownonsocialmedia,rerunanelectionearlierthisyearbecausethe
initialresultwasntgoodenoughandmadesurehisson-in-lawwasappointedenergyminister.YetAmericanssay
naryawordaboutErdogansthuggishapproachtodomesticandforeignpolicy.GermanysAngelaMerkeleven
showedupinAnkarainOctoberwithabunchofgoodiestohelptheTurkishleaderspartyregainaparliamentary
majority.ItsgoodtobeErdogan.Intheinterestofallianceunityandsolidarity,hewillgetafurtherpassfromhis
NATOalliesnowthattheplaneincidenthasraisedtensionsbetweenAnkaraandMoscow.
TherearefewwithintheObamaadministrationwhogenuinelyseemtobelieveTurkeycanbepartofthesolutionin
Syria.WashingtonappearshappyjusttohaveaccesstoTurkishterritory,whichisapparentlywhytheWhiteHouse
hasbeensopubliclyaccommodatingtowardErdogan.AfterayearoftoughnegotiationswiththeTurksoverIncirlik,
theydontwanttorisklosingtheaccess.TheAmericanpolicytowardTurkeymustremindanyonewithchildrenof
thefirstruleofdaycare:Yougetwhatyouget,andyoudontgetupset.
GivenhowWashingtonhasdefinedthegravityoftheISILthreatandtheimportanceofTurkeysairbasesinthefight
againstextremism,thebenefitsofthisapproachmayverywelloutweighitscosts.ButaslongasWashington
determinesnottocallouttheTurkishgovernmentforitsbadbehavior,Ankarawillcontinuetosowchaos.
StevenA.CookistheEniEnricoMatteiSeniorFellowforMiddleEastandAfricaStudiesattheCouncilon
ForeignRelations.Hisbook,ThwartedDreams:ViolenceandAuthoritarianismintheNewMiddleEast,willbe
publishedbyOxfordUniversityPressin2016.
ShowComments
Senttime: 11/27/201512:44:44PM
Subject: FW:[BlackFridayNoonreport/EST]Fwd:FPFlashPoints:Joffe:PutinandErdogan'sphantomempires&Stavridis:NowstheTimeforNATOtoRallyAroundTurkey........[WD]RUHabitnotaccident:Fulllistof39airspaceincursionincidentsinvolvingRUmi
Sent:Friday,November27,20159:42AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[BlackFridayNoonreport/EST]Fwd:FPFlashPoints:Joffe:PutinandErdogan'sphantomempires&Stavridis:NowstheTimeforNATOtoRallyAroundTurkey........[WD]RUHabitnotaccident:Fulllistof39airspace
incursionincidentsinvolvingRUmil...
Date:Fri,Nov27,2015at9:03AM
Subject:FlashPoints:PutinandErdogan'sphantomempires
F r o m c r a z e d d e m a g o g u e s l i k e D o n a l d T r u m p t o u n c o o r d i n a t e d , s t r a t e g i c a l l y i n c o h e r e n t , l e a d e r l e s s c o u n t e r s t r i k e s , w e ' r e s p i r a l i n g t o w a r d a r i s k i e r t o m o r r o w .


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TheCzarvs.theSultan
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PutinandErdoganseethemselvesasheirsto
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NowstheTimeforNATOtoRallyAroundTurkey
Inthewakeoftheshoot-downofaRussianjet,TurkeysalliancewiththeWestneedstobereinforced,nowmorethanever.
BYJAMESSTAVRIDIS
NOVEMBER25,2015
The downing of a Russian jet by Turkish Air Force F-16 fighters illuminates the significant turbulence Ankara faces in its increasingly shattered neighborhood. The Iraqi and Syrian civil
wars, the rise of the Islamic State, the continuing instability in Lebanon, historic and ongoing antipathy with Armenia, and an uneasy relationship with NATO ally Greece are all significant
challenges. Both Russian and Turkish heads of state are publicly outraged, no apologies seem forthcoming, and sophisticated new anti-air missiles will be placed in Syria by Russia. It is a
tactical and operational crisis, with high-stakes considerations.
But the chaotic region hasnt always been the central organizing fact set driving Turkish foreign policy. Indeed, a decade ago, the Turks sought regional harmony under then-Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who articulated a foreign policy of zero problems with neighbors. This is a pretty good approach until all your neighbors start to have problems, of course,
which is the situation in which Turkey finds itself today.
What therefore faces Turkey and the West is a geopolitical choice of extraordinary importance: whether Ankara will continue to pursue membership in the European Union and maintain
itself as a strong transatlantic-oriented nation or to turn away in frustration from its failure to gain membership in the EU abetted by a sense that NATO and the United States do not
take their concerns (refugees, the dangers of the Assad regime, regional instability) seriously.
We here in the United States should do all in our power to encourage Turkey to be part of the European and transatlantic communities. Letting them drift away would be a profound
geopolitical mistake for the West. Turkey has a population of nearly 80 million, positive demographic trends, a diversified and growing economy that is easily in the global top 20, excellent
infrastructure and industrial capability, the second largest military in NATO, and a deep sense of national pride. Despite a current economic slowdown, a huge Syrian refugee population
(approaching 2 million), significant political challenges presented by the Kurdish minority, and an active insurgency, the nation has maintained a democratic and secular tradition, albeit under
some internal pressure to move in a more Islamic direction.
But the Russian shoot-down is merely a symptom of what has been building in the region. Leading up to the downing yesterday, Ankara and Moscow have had an uneasy relationship for
several years given the Turkish antipathy to the Assad regime and the staunch Russian support for it. Yet the nations have managed to cooperate across a variety of issues, including a major
gas pipeline, tourism from sun-seeking Russians, significant counternarcotics cooperation, a high level of trade, and diplomatic engagement with Iran.
But the events in the months before the shoot-down were increasingly confrontational: a brewing war of words over Assads legitimacy Russian drones and aircraft violating Turkish
airspace and growing disagreements about energy policy in the eastern Mediterranean. Now, that relationship will probably crater. Turkey has turned to NATO for emergency consultations,
which will occur this week. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin pulled no punches proclaiming the attack on the jet was a stab in the back.
As the world assesses the fallout from the Russian shoot-down, there are several lessons that emerge at each level:
At the tactical level, this was an entirely predictable event which must be avoided going forward. There are too many militaries flying missions over Syria without any level of cooperation.
The international community should use this as an object example to create a high-level expert group to untangle the dangerous battle space. This could be done by standing up a combined
air operations center in the region as a setting for such tactical engagement and discussions, either in Turkey or the Gulf states. One such center is at the Al-Ueid Air Base in Qatar. We
desperately need tactical protocols for aircraft to use with each other to avoid another inadvertent incident.
One level up, operationally, there is a need for a battle management system across the theater. This would ideally be an airborne radar and air control system which is found on the U.S. and
NATO Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AWACS) E-3 aircraft. These large and capable planes can provide a look-down radar picture and provide de-confliction assistance. They
could do so operating out of Turkish airbases and over Turkish airspace. If the coalition moves to set up a no-fly zone, theyll be necessary.
Strategically, the shoot down crystallizes the difficult choices ahead in Syria. Turkey, the United States, and NATO all support the anti-Assad forces (except, of course, al Qaeda-affiliated
groups and the Islamic State). Russia and Iran support Assad, but are also opposed to al Qaeda and the Islamic State. It is time to focus on the common enemy, prioritizing the fight against
the Islamic State by creating a functioning anti-IS strike coalition. At the same time, a diplomatic and economic solution is necessary for the Assad regime, perhaps using the lessons learned
from the resolution of the Bosnian War in the Balkans two decades ago.
But the grand strategic choice here involves Turkey and the West. Ankara must be persuaded to continue its pursuit of membership in the European Union and a track that aligns itself with
the transatlantic community. But that requires of Turkey a political process that is demonstrably democratic, an open press, and a focus on human rights and anti-corruption.
The European Union should work to encourage Turkish membership. This means working in a sincere and meaningful way together to find some resolution and sustainable solution to the
enormous flow of Syrian migrants. The European Union needs Turkey as a cooperative and engaged partner on a host of issues, including its membership in NATO, energy policy, and
Ankaras unique capacity to be the model of a secular, democratic Islamic state.
In this regard, NATO needs to recognize the good work of Turkey in the alliance. The Turks have been present in virtually every NATO operation with significant impact: training Afghan
Security Forces and leading coalition efforts in the central district, including Kabul sending ships and aircraft to Libya participating in counterpiracy operations maintaining a steady
presence in the security and peacekeeping force in the Balkans. Turkey is a front-line state in the Syrian civil war, and now is the time for NATO to stand firmly alongside them.
The United States should likewise support Turkey across the diplomatic and political spectrum the geopolitical importance of keeping Ankara aligned with the West is far too crucial to let
some disagreements get in the way. But both sides need to create the conditions to make this a reality. As NATO meets this week to discuss the shoot-down and try to deescalate tensions,
we need to think through the implications from the tactical to the grand strategic and make the right choices.
Subject:RUHabitnotaccident>Fulllistof39airspaceincursionincidentsinvolvingRussianmilitaryandNatosinceMarch2014
FulllistofincidentsinvolvingRussianmilitaryandNatosinceMarch2014
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/full-list-of-incidents-involving-russian-military-and-nato-since-march-2014-9851309.html#gallery
TheEuropeanLeadershipNetworksaidPutincouldbetestingdefence
Afulllistof39incidentssinceMarch2014
AspokespersonfortheELNsaid:Eventhoughdirectmilitaryconfrontationhasbeenavoidedsofar,themixofmoreaggressiveRussianposturingandthereadinessofWesternforcestoshowresolveincreasestheriskof
unintendedescalationandthedangeroflosingcontroloverevents.
AsclassifiedbytheEuropeanLeadershipNetwork
HighRiskIncidents
On3March2014acloseencounteroccurredbetweenaSASpassengerplanetakingofffromCopenhagenandaRussianreconnaissanceaircraftwhichdidnottransmititsposition50milessoutheastofMalmo.Acollision
wasapparentlyavoidedthanksonlytogoodvisibilityandthealertnessofthepassengerplanepilots.TheSAS737planewascarrying132passengerstoRome.
On5September2014anEstoniansecurityserviceoperative,EstonKohver,wasabductedbyRussianagentsfromanEstonianborderpost,onEstonian,andthereforeNATO,territory.HewaslatertakentoMoscowand
accusedofespionage.Theincidentitselfinvolvedcommunicationsjammingandtheuseofsmokegrenades,andtookplaceimmediatelyafterPresidentObamasvisittotheregionandhisrepetitionofsecurityassurancesto
theBalticStates.
Between17-27October,2014amajorsubmarinehuntbySwedishauthoritieswaspromptedbycredibleintelligencereportsofunderwateractivityintheStockholmarchipelagoinSwedishterritorialwaters.Supreme
CommanderGeneralSverkerGransonunderlinedthatSwedenwasreadytousearmedforcetobringthevesseltothesurfaceifnecessary.RussiaissueddenialsandattemptedtoridiculeSwedishconcerns.Themajor
searchoperationstoppedonOct.24.
SeriousIncidentswithEscalationRisk
On12April2014anunarmedRussianfighteraircraftmade12passesoftheAmericanwarshiptheUSSCookintheBlackSea.Suchaggressivebehaviour,ifrepeatedbyanarmedaircraft,couldhaveresultedintheship
commandertargetingtheaircraftinanactofself-defence.
OnApril232014anarmedRussianfighterundertookverythreateningmanoeuvresinthevicinityofanAmericanreconnaissanceaircraftintheSeaofOkhotsk.Thesemanoeuvresinvolveddemonstratingthatthefighterwas
armed.Suchbehaviourisfarremovedfromwhatwouldbeexpectedinarelativelyroutineencounter.
InJune2014armedRussianaircraftapproachedtheheavilypopulatedDanishislandofBornholmbeforebreakingoffinwhatappearstohavebeenasimulatedattack.TheDanishintelligenceservicedescribedtheincident
asofamoreoffensivecharacterthanobservedinrecentyears.
On16July2014anarmedRussianaircraftinterceptedaSwedishsurveillanceplaneconductingoperationsbetweenGotlandandLatviaininternationalairspace,andflewwithin10metresoftheplane.Thisindicatedafar
moreaggressiveapproachtointerceptingaircraftthaninpreviousencounters.
On18July2014anAmericansurveillanceplaneconductingoperationsnearKaliningradwaschasedintoSwedishair-spaceafterbeingapproachedbyRussianfighters.ThisevasiveactiontookplacewithoutSwedens
priorapprovalthattheUSaircraftcouldenterSwedishairspace.
InearlySeptember,2014RussianstrategicbombersintheLabradorSeanearCanadapracticedcruisemissilestrikesontheUnitedStates.TheRussianaircraftstayedoutsideofCanadasADIZbutthiswasstilla
provocativemoveinlightoftheNATOsummitongoingatthetime.CruisemissileslaunchedfromtheLabradorSeawouldhaveOttawa,NewYork,Washington,Chicago,andtheNorfolkNavalBaseinrange.
On7September2014HMCSToronto(afrigate)wasbuzzedbyaRussianaircraftintheBlackSea,withtheplanecomingwithin300metresofthewarship.HMCSTorontolockeditsradarontheRussianplanebuttook
nofurtheractionastheaircraftwasnotarmed.ThisincidentcoincidedwithlargerRussiannavalcombattrainingactivitiesnearSevastopol.Suchaggressivebehaviour,ifrepeatedbyanarmedaircraft,couldhaveresultedin
theshipcommandertargetingtheaircraftinanactofself-defence.
On17September2014twoRussianmilitaryaircraftcrossedintoSwedishair-spacesouthoftheislandofOland.TheRussianSu-24bombersintentionallyviolatedSwedishairspacepossiblytotestthecapabilitiesoftheair
defencesystemstrengthenedafterpreviousincidents.TheSwedishForeignMinisterdescribedtheincidentasthemostseriousaerialincursioninyears.
On19September2014RussianofficersdetainedaLithuanianshippingvesselininternationalwatersintheBarentsSea,subsequentlytowingittoMurmansk.ThisrepresentedaclearescalationinRussianattemptsatthe
provocationandintimidationoftheBalticStates.
On3October2014aRussianfighterflewwithinmetresofSwedishsurveillanceaircraftintheBalticinanincidentdeemedunusuallyprovocative.Acollisionbetweentheaircraftwouldhavehadseriousrepercussions
forbilateralrelationsandincreasedmilitarytensionsacrosstheentireBalticarea.
From28-30October2014,RussiaconductedamajorairexerciseintheNorthSea,Atlantic,BlackSeaandBalticSea.Inaseriesofdevelopments,aircraftfromNATOstatesandpartnerstrackedRussianlong-range
bombersconductingmissionsacrossthisentirearea,includingalargeformationofRussianfightersandbombersconductingmissionsovertheBalticSea.Allmissionswereconductedininternationalairspacebuttheirscale
anduseofdifferentkindsofaircraftanddifferentzonesofoperationhasaddedsignificantlytoincreasedtensionsbetweenNATOandRussia.
NearRoutineIncidents
On10April2014twoRussianNavyvesselsinvolvedinlivemissilefiringexercisesenteredLithuaniasBalticmaritimeeconomiczone,causingseriousdisruptiontoshipping.
On20April2014aRussianreconaircraftobservedSwedishmilitaryinstallations.UncleariftherewasaSwedishresponse.
On23April2014aRussianaircraftenteredDutchairspacebeforebeinginterceptedbyDutchfighteraircraft.
On24April2014RAFfightersinterceptedandshadowedRussianaircraftininternationalairspaceovertheNorthSea.
On28April2014,fighterswiththeNatoBalticAirPolicingforcescrambledtointerceptRussianaircraftininternationalairspace.
On9May2014Russianaircraftapproachedtowithin50milesoftheCaliforniancoast,theclosestsuchRussianmilitaryflightsincetheColdWar.
On18May2014RAFfightersinterceptedaRussianhelicopterandshadoweditbacktoitsparentcorvetteintheBalticSeathefighterslaterperformedseveralpassesoftheRussianwarship.
InlateMay,earlyJune2014RussianaircraftcarriedoutseveralincursionsintotheUSandCanadianAirDefenceIdentificationZonesintheArctic.
On12June2014,NatofightersinterceptedRussianaircraftininternationalairspacenearLatvia.
On17June2014,RAFfightersinterceptedaRussianairformationininternationalairspace.
On19June2014HMSMontrose,aBritishfrigate,wassenttoinvestigateaRussiancorvetteininternationalwatersnearDenmarksBalticcoast.HMSMontrosewassubsequentlycircledbyRussianmaritimepatrol
aircraft.
From21Mayto13August2014,aseriesofshortairspaceviolationsbyRussianaircraftwerereportedovertheEstonianislandofVaindloo.
On1August,PolishfightersoftheNatoBalticair-policingmissioninterceptedRussianaircraftflyingnearEstoniaairspace.
InearlyAugust2014severalRussianairincursionswerereportedintotheAlaskanAirDefenceIdentificationZone.
On7August2014anti-submarineforcesofRussiasNorthernFleetreportedlyexpelledanAmericansubmarinefromtheBarentsSea.TheUSdenieditssubmarineswereoperatinginthearea.
On28August2014,therewasanairincidentinvolvinganunknownNatocountryandRussia.NodetailsbeyondaircrafttypeexceptthatincidenttookplaceovertheBaltic.
InAugust/September2014,RussiannavalandairunitsinterferedwiththeoperationsofaFinnishresearchvesselontwoseparateoccasions.
InlateAugust,2014,multiplebreachesofFinnishair-spacebyRussianstateaircraftwerereported.Inresponse,Finlandhasalreadyindicatedthatitwillreactmorefirmlytoviolationsofitsairspaceinfuture.
On11September2014,CanadianjetsinterceptedRussianaircraftininternationalairspace.
Betweenthe17and18September2014,RussianjetsenteredtheADIZoffthecoastofAlaska(officialssaysuchincidentshappenaround10timesayear)ontwoseparateoccasions,onceontheeveningofWednesday
17thSep(USAADIZ)andonceonthemorningofThursday18thSep(CanadianADIZ,BeaufortSea).TheRussianplaneswereinterceptedbyAmericanandCanadianfighters.TheseincidentscoincidewithUkrainian
PresidentPetroPoroshenkosvisitstoOttawaandWashington.
On19September2014,RAFjetsshadowedRussianaircraftininternationalairspaceabovethenorthsea.
On29September2014,LatvianforcesobservedaRussianwarshipoperating14milesfromLatvianterritorialwatersarticleobservesthatRussianjetsandwarshipshavebeendetected173timesnearLatviasbordersas
ofSeptember.
On20October2014,planesfromtheBalticAirPolicingmissioninterceptedRussiansurveillanceIl-20aircraftininternationalairspace
On21October2014BalticAirPolicingplanes(PortugueseF-16s)interceptedRussianIl-20surveillanceaircraftwhichenteredEstonianairspacenexttotheislandofSaaremaforaboutaminute.
On31October2014,RAFTyphoonsinterceptedRussianaircraftapproachingUKairspace.
Subject:VladimirPutinaccusesUSofleakingflightpathofjettoTurkey|DailyMailOnline
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3335625/They-knew-exact-time-exact-place-Putin-accuses-leaking-flight-path-doomed-jet-Turkey
-fearsome-anti-aircraft-missiles-roll-Syria.html

'Theyknewtheexacttimeandtheexactplace':Putinaccuses
AmericaofLEAKINGflightpathofdoomedjettoTurkey...
ashisfearsomeanti-aircraftmissilesrollintoSyria
PutinhasaccusedtheU.S.ofbeingcomplicitinthedestructionofitsjet
TheRussianjetwasdownedbyTurkeyafteritenteredTurkishairspace
HeclaimedRussiagavetheU.S.theflightpathdataforthedoomedaircraft
Thiswaseither'leaked'orit'doesnotcontrolwhatitsalliesaredoing'
Meanwhile,Russia'sfearsomeS-400missilesystemshavearrivedinSyria
PutinhasalsoagreedtocoordinateairstrikeswithFranceagainstISIS
SeeourfullcoverageonVladimirPutinatwww.dailymail.co.uk/putin
ByCoreyCharltonforMailOnline
Published:17:29EST,26November2015|Updated:06:24EST,27November2015
RussianpresidentVladimirPutinhasaccusedtheU.S.ofbeingcomplicitinthedestructionofitsmilitaryjetthreedaysago
-suggestingtheAmericansknewexactlywhenandwhereitwastravelling.
InapressconferenceattheKremlinyesterday,PutinsaidtheRussianshadgivenpriorinformationtotheU.S.oftheflight
pathoftheplane-buttheU.S.had'leaked'theinformationtoTurkey.
Inotherdevelopments,Putin'sdreadedS-400anti-aircraftmissilesystems-mobilisedinthewakeofthejet'sdestruction-were
photographedbeingunloadedfrommilitarytransportsinSyria.
HealsovowedtojoinFranceincoordinatingbombingcampaignsagainstISISforcesandagreedtoshareintelligenceinformation.
Scrolldownforvideo
VladimirPutinhasaccusedtheU.S.ofknowingexactlywhenandwherethedoomedRussianjetwastravelling
InajointpressconferencewithFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollande,Putinalsodefendedhisdecisionto
mobilisethefearedS-400antiaircraftmissiles
RussiahasaccusedTurkeyof'plannedprovocation'andsupportingISISinsellinghumanorgansafteroneof
Moscow'sfighterjetswasshotdownbytheTurkisharmy(pictured)
Flight:ThismapshowstherouteoftheRussianjet(showninred),basedondatareleasedbytheTurkisharmy,
includingwhereitviolatedTurkishairspace,andtheareaintheTurkomenMountainswhereitcrashed
ItishopedthemovewillbethestartofclosertiesbetweenMoscowandtheU.S.-ledanti-ISIScoalitionfollowing
theParisterrorattacks-despitetheanimositybrewingoverthedownedjet.
TheTurkishmilitaryshottheRussianSu-24warplaneclosetotheSyrianborderonTuesdayaftertheysaidit
enteredthecountry'sairspace,causingariftinrelations.
Bothpilotsejectedfromtheplaneandone,CaptainKonstantinMurakhtin,wasrescuedbyRussianspecial
forcesafterhelandedintheforestinrebel-heldterritorybuttheother,LieutenantColonelOlegPeshkovwas
shotdeadbyrebels.
Putintoldgatheredmedia:'TheAmericanside,whichleadsthecoalitionthatTurkeybelongsto,knewabout
thelocationandtimeofourplanes'flights,andwewerehitexactlythereandatthattime.
'WhydidwepassthisinformationtotheAmericans?Eithertheywerenotcontrollingwhattheiralliesweredoing,
ortheyareleakingthisinformationallovertheplace.'
Aheadoftheconference,PutinandTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogantradedbarbs,withtheRussianleader
sayinghewaswaitingforanapologyandErdoganrulingoutanysuchmove.
Putinhasdismissedas'rubbish'Turkey'sclaimthatitwouldnothaveshotdownthejetifithadknownitwasRussian.
'They[ourplanes]haveidentificationsignsandthesearewellvisible.Insteadof...ensuringthisneverhappensagain,
wearehearingunintelligibleexplanationsandstatementsthatthereisnothingtoapologiseabout.'\
Russia'sfearsomeS-400anti-aircraftmissilesystems(pictured)arecapableofhittingtargets250milesaway
Picturesemergedyesterdayofthestate-of-the-artmissilesystems'arrivaltothebattlefieldsofSyria,
whilethewarofwordsbetweenPutinandErdoganintensified
TheS-400sarebasedinSyria'scoastalprovinceofLatakia,just30milesfromtheborderwithTurkey
andarecapableofstrikingtargetsa/thugerangeswithdeadlyprecision
PutindefendedhisdecisiontomobilisetheweaponryafterthedowningofaRussianjetbyTurkeywhich
MeanwhilePutinsaidoilsmugglingfromISIScontrolledterritoryintoTurkeymustbestoppedafterameetingwith
FrenchpresidentFrancoisHollandeinMoscow.
Hetoldapressconference:'Vehicles,carringoil,linedupinachaingoingbeyondthehorizonresemblingalivingoilpipe.
'DayandnighttheyaregoingtoTurkey.Trucksalwaysgothereloaded,andbackfromthere-empty.'
'WeassumethatthetoppoliticalleadershipofTurkeymightnotknowanythingaboutthis[illegaloiltrade].
Hardtobelieve,butitistheoreticallypossible.'
ItcameafterTurkishpresidentRecepTayyipErdoganrefutedanysuspicionsthatSyrianoilwasenteringhiscountryillegally.
Erdogansaid:'ThosewhoclaimwebuyoilfromDaesh(ISIS)areobligedtoproveit.'Ifnot,youareaslanderer.Shameonyou!'
Putin'sfearedS-400anti-aircraftbattalionshavelandedinSyriareadytodestroyanythreatstohisairforce.
Thesurface-to-airmissilesystemsarecapableofstrikingdowntargetsupto250milesawayandwereinstantlydeployed
totheregioninthewakeofTuesday'sconfrontation.
PhotographsemergedyesterdayofthemissilecarriersbeingdeployedinLatakia,northernSyria
Thestate-of-the-art,longrangesurfacetoairmissilesareunloadedfromaRussianmilitarytransport
Boastingamassivestrikerange,theS-400willbeabletoprotectRussianaircraftacrossmostofSyria
ThehighlyadvancedS-400anti-aircraftsystemRussiahasdeployedtoLatakiaoffersamassive250mile
TheS-400sarebasedinSyria'scoastalprovinceofLatakia,just30milesfromtheborderwithTurkeyandare
capableofstrikingtargetsahugerangeswithdeadlyprecision.
YesterdayPutindefendedhisdecisiontomobilisetheweaponryaftertheattackbyTurkeywhichheconsidered
abetrayal.
InajointpressconferencewithFrancoisHollandeattheKremlin,hesaid:'WedidnothavethosesystemsinSyria
[previously]becausewebelievedthatourairforcewasworkingatanaltitudewhichwouldnotbereachablebyterrorists.
'Theydonothavethisequipmentcapableofshootingdowntheaircraftat3,000to4,000metres.
'Wedidn'teventhinkthatwecouldreceiveastrikefromapartythatwethoughttobeourpartner.
'Ifwethoughtofthisbefore,wewouldhaveestablishedthesystemscapabletoprotectouraircraft.
'Thereasonwedidn'tdothisisbecausewethoughtTurkeytobeafriendlycountry.Weareour
establishingoursystemS-400whichiscapableoflongrangestrikesanditisoneofthemosteffective
systemsofthistypeintheworld.'
TheS-400'srangemeansitsmissilescouldreachdeepintoTurkeyorposeapotentialthreattoUS-led
coalitionplanes-addingyetanotherdangerouselementtoanalreadyvolatilemixofcompetingmilitary
interestsinSyria.
'It'sacapableweaponssystemthatposesasignificantthreattoanyone,'aUSofficialspeakingon
conditionofanonymitytoldAFP.'TherearesignificantconcernsrelatedtoairoperationsinSyria.'
AccusationsflungbackandforthfrombothRussiaandTurkeyinthewakeoftheconfrontationhave
furtheraggravatedthesituation.
TURKEYACCUSESRUSSIAOF'SLANDER'OVEROILCLAIMS
TurkishpresidentRecepTayyipErdogan(pictured)
hasdescribedRussianclaimsthatTurkeyisbuyingoil
fromISISas'slander'
ErdoganhasaccusedMoscowofslanderforclaiminghiscountrybuysoilfromISISasthefalloutbetween
thetwonationsoverthedownedfighterjetcontinuestoescalate.
Turkeyrefusedtoapologiseforthejet'sdestruction,thoughconcededinthefaceofharshRussianretaliatory
measuresitmayhaveacted'differently'haditknowntheplanewasRussian.
Intheaftermathoftheincident,RussiaaccusedTurkeyofpayingISISfightersinordertobuyoil.
ButErdoganlashedoutattheclaims,callingthemslanderous.
SpeakinginAnkarahesaid:'TheyclaimTurkeyisbuyingoilfromDaesh',usinganothernameforISIS.
'Shameonyou.ThosewhoclaimwebuyoilfromDaeshareobligedtoproveit.Ifnot,youareaslanderer.'
HetoldFrance24:'Theyarelies,theyareslander.Wehavenever,neverhadthiskindofcommercial
relationshipwithanyterrororganisation.Theyhavetoproveit,andiftheycan,TayyipErdoganwill
leaveoffice.'
ErdoganalsoturnedonRussia'ssupportoftheBasharal-Assadregime.RussiafurtherenragedTurkeywith
thelaunchofitsaircampaigninSyriainSeptember,accusingMoscowoffocusingitsfireonmoderaterebels
ratherthanISISjihadists.
Hesaid:'ThosewhocarryoutamilitarycampaignwiththepretextoffightingDaesharetargetinganti-regime
opponents.
'YousayyouarefightingDaesh.Excuseme,butyouarenotfightingDaesh.YouarekillingourTurkmenkinsmen
hand-in-handwiththeregimeinordertoclearareasnorthofLatakia.
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Subject: FW:[BlackFridayNoonreport/EST]Fwd:FPFlashPoints:Joffe:PutinandErdogan'sphantomempires&Stavridis:NowstheTimeforNATOtoRallyAroundTurkey........[WD]RUHabitnotaccident:Fulllistof39airspaceincursionincidentsinvolvingRUmi
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Subject:[BlackFridayNoonreport/EST]Fwd:FPFlashPoints:Joffe:PutinandErdogan'sphantomempires&Stavridis:NowstheTimeforNATOtoRallyAroundTurkey........[WD]RUHabitnotaccident:Fulllistof39airspace
incursionincidentsinvolvingRUmil...
Subject:FlashPoints:PutinandErdogan'sphantomempires
F r o m c r a z e d d e m a g o g u e s l i k e D o n a l d T r u m p t o u n c o o r d i n a t e d , s t r a t e g i c a l l y i n c o h e r e n t , l e a d e r l e s s c o u n t e r s t r i k e s , w e ' r e s p i r a l i n g t o w a r d a r i s k i e r t o m o r r o w .


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NowstheTimeforNATOtoRallyAroundTurkey
Inthewakeoftheshoot-downofaRussianjet,TurkeysalliancewiththeWestneedstobereinforced,nowmorethanever.
BYJAMESSTAVRIDIS
NOVEMBER25,2015
The downing of a Russian jet by Turkish Air Force F-16 fighters illuminates the significant turbulence Ankara faces in its increasingly shattered neighborhood. The Iraqi and Syrian civil
wars, the rise of the Islamic State, the continuing instability in Lebanon, historic and ongoing antipathy with Armenia, and an uneasy relationship with NATO ally Greece are all significant
challenges. Both Russian and Turkish heads of state are publicly outraged, no apologies seem forthcoming, and sophisticated new anti-air missiles will be placed in Syria by Russia. It is a
tactical and operational crisis, with high-stakes considerations.
But the chaotic region hasnt always been the central organizing fact set driving Turkish foreign policy. Indeed, a decade ago, the Turks sought regional harmony under then-Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who articulated a foreign policy of zero problems with neighbors. This is a pretty good approach until all your neighbors start to have problems, of course,
which is the situation in which Turkey finds itself today.
What therefore faces Turkey and the West is a geopolitical choice of extraordinary importance: whether Ankara will continue to pursue membership in the European Union and maintain
itself as a strong transatlantic-oriented nation or to turn away in frustration from its failure to gain membership in the EU abetted by a sense that NATO and the United States do not
take their concerns (refugees, the dangers of the Assad regime, regional instability) seriously.
We here in the United States should do all in our power to encourage Turkey to be part of the European and transatlantic communities. Letting them drift away would be a profound
geopolitical mistake for the West. Turkey has a population of nearly 80 million, positive demographic trends, a diversified and growing economy that is easily in the global top 20, excellent
infrastructure and industrial capability, the second largest military in NATO, and a deep sense of national pride. Despite a current economic slowdown, a huge Syrian refugee population
(approaching 2 million), significant political challenges presented by the Kurdish minority, and an active insurgency, the nation has maintained a democratic and secular tradition, albeit under
some internal pressure to move in a more Islamic direction.
But the Russian shoot-down is merely a symptom of what has been building in the region. Leading up to the downing yesterday, Ankara and Moscow have had an uneasy relationship for
several years given the Turkish antipathy to the Assad regime and the staunch Russian support for it. Yet the nations have managed to cooperate across a variety of issues, including a major
gas pipeline, tourism from sun-seeking Russians, significant counternarcotics cooperation, a high level of trade, and diplomatic engagement with Iran.
But the events in the months before the shoot-down were increasingly confrontational: a brewing war of words over Assads legitimacy Russian drones and aircraft violating Turkish
airspace and growing disagreements about energy policy in the eastern Mediterranean. Now, that relationship will probably crater. Turkey has turned to NATO for emergency consultations,
which will occur this week. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin pulled no punches proclaiming the attack on the jet was a stab in the back.
As the world assesses the fallout from the Russian shoot-down, there are several lessons that emerge at each level:
At the tactical level, this was an entirely predictable event which must be avoided going forward. There are too many militaries flying missions over Syria without any level of cooperation.
The international community should use this as an object example to create a high-level expert group to untangle the dangerous battle space. This could be done by standing up a combined
air operations center in the region as a setting for such tactical engagement and discussions, either in Turkey or the Gulf states. One such center is at the Al-Ueid Air Base in Qatar. We
desperately need tactical protocols for aircraft to use with each other to avoid another inadvertent incident.
One level up, operationally, there is a need for a battle management system across the theater. This would ideally be an airborne radar and air control system which is found on the U.S. and
NATO Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AWACS) E-3 aircraft. These large and capable planes can provide a look-down radar picture and provide de-confliction assistance. They
could do so operating out of Turkish airbases and over Turkish airspace. If the coalition moves to set up a no-fly zone, theyll be necessary.
Strategically, the shoot down crystallizes the difficult choices ahead in Syria. Turkey, the United States, and NATO all support the anti-Assad forces (except, of course, al Qaeda-affiliated
groups and the Islamic State). Russia and Iran support Assad, but are also opposed to al Qaeda and the Islamic State. It is time to focus on the common enemy, prioritizing the fight against
the Islamic State by creating a functioning anti-IS strike coalition. At the same time, a diplomatic and economic solution is necessary for the Assad regime, perhaps using the lessons learned
from the resolution of the Bosnian War in the Balkans two decades ago.
But the grand strategic choice here involves Turkey and the West. Ankara must be persuaded to continue its pursuit of membership in the European Union and a track that aligns itself with
the transatlantic community. But that requires of Turkey a political process that is demonstrably democratic, an open press, and a focus on human rights and anti-corruption.
The European Union should work to encourage Turkish membership. This means working in a sincere and meaningful way together to find some resolution and sustainable solution to the
enormous flow of Syrian migrants. The European Union needs Turkey as a cooperative and engaged partner on a host of issues, including its membership in NATO, energy policy, and
Ankaras unique capacity to be the model of a secular, democratic Islamic state.
In this regard, NATO needs to recognize the good work of Turkey in the alliance. The Turks have been present in virtually every NATO operation with significant impact: training Afghan
Security Forces and leading coalition efforts in the central district, including Kabul sending ships and aircraft to Libya participating in counterpiracy operations maintaining a steady
presence in the security and peacekeeping force in the Balkans. Turkey is a front-line state in the Syrian civil war, and now is the time for NATO to stand firmly alongside them.
The United States should likewise support Turkey across the diplomatic and political spectrum the geopolitical importance of keeping Ankara aligned with the West is far too crucial to let
some disagreements get in the way. But both sides need to create the conditions to make this a reality. As NATO meets this week to discuss the shoot-down and try to deescalate tensions,
we need to think through the implications from the tactical to the grand strategic and make the right choices.
Subject:RUHabitnotaccident>Fulllistof39airspaceincursionincidentsinvolvingRussianmilitaryandNatosinceMarch2014
FulllistofincidentsinvolvingRussianmilitaryandNatosinceMarch2014
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/full-list-of-incidents-involving-russian-military-and-nato-since-march-2014-9851309.html#gallery
TheEuropeanLeadershipNetworksaidPutincouldbetestingdefence
Afulllistof39incidentssinceMarch2014
AspokespersonfortheELNsaid:Eventhoughdirectmilitaryconfrontationhasbeenavoidedsofar,themixofmoreaggressiveRussianposturingandthereadinessofWesternforcestoshowresolveincreasestheriskof
unintendedescalationandthedangeroflosingcontroloverevents.
AsclassifiedbytheEuropeanLeadershipNetwork
HighRiskIncidents
On3March2014acloseencounteroccurredbetweenaSASpassengerplanetakingofffromCopenhagenandaRussianreconnaissanceaircraftwhichdidnottransmititsposition50milessoutheastofMalmo.Acollision
wasapparentlyavoidedthanksonlytogoodvisibilityandthealertnessofthepassengerplanepilots.TheSAS737planewascarrying132passengerstoRome.
On5September2014anEstoniansecurityserviceoperative,EstonKohver,wasabductedbyRussianagentsfromanEstonianborderpost,onEstonian,andthereforeNATO,territory.HewaslatertakentoMoscowand
accusedofespionage.Theincidentitselfinvolvedcommunicationsjammingandtheuseofsmokegrenades,andtookplaceimmediatelyafterPresidentObamasvisittotheregionandhisrepetitionofsecurityassurancesto
theBalticStates.
Between17-27October,2014amajorsubmarinehuntbySwedishauthoritieswaspromptedbycredibleintelligencereportsofunderwateractivityintheStockholmarchipelagoinSwedishterritorialwaters.Supreme
CommanderGeneralSverkerGransonunderlinedthatSwedenwasreadytousearmedforcetobringthevesseltothesurfaceifnecessary.RussiaissueddenialsandattemptedtoridiculeSwedishconcerns.Themajor
searchoperationstoppedonOct.24.
SeriousIncidentswithEscalationRisk
On12April2014anunarmedRussianfighteraircraftmade12passesoftheAmericanwarshiptheUSSCookintheBlackSea.Suchaggressivebehaviour,ifrepeatedbyanarmedaircraft,couldhaveresultedintheship
commandertargetingtheaircraftinanactofself-defence.
OnApril232014anarmedRussianfighterundertookverythreateningmanoeuvresinthevicinityofanAmericanreconnaissanceaircraftintheSeaofOkhotsk.Thesemanoeuvresinvolveddemonstratingthatthefighterwas
armed.Suchbehaviourisfarremovedfromwhatwouldbeexpectedinarelativelyroutineencounter.
InJune2014armedRussianaircraftapproachedtheheavilypopulatedDanishislandofBornholmbeforebreakingoffinwhatappearstohavebeenasimulatedattack.TheDanishintelligenceservicedescribedtheincident
asofamoreoffensivecharacterthanobservedinrecentyears.
On16July2014anarmedRussianaircraftinterceptedaSwedishsurveillanceplaneconductingoperationsbetweenGotlandandLatviaininternationalairspace,andflewwithin10metresoftheplane.Thisindicatedafar
moreaggressiveapproachtointerceptingaircraftthaninpreviousencounters.
On18July2014anAmericansurveillanceplaneconductingoperationsnearKaliningradwaschasedintoSwedishair-spaceafterbeingapproachedbyRussianfighters.ThisevasiveactiontookplacewithoutSwedens
priorapprovalthattheUSaircraftcouldenterSwedishairspace.
InearlySeptember,2014RussianstrategicbombersintheLabradorSeanearCanadapracticedcruisemissilestrikesontheUnitedStates.TheRussianaircraftstayedoutsideofCanadasADIZbutthiswasstilla
provocativemoveinlightoftheNATOsummitongoingatthetime.CruisemissileslaunchedfromtheLabradorSeawouldhaveOttawa,NewYork,Washington,Chicago,andtheNorfolkNavalBaseinrange.
On7September2014HMCSToronto(afrigate)wasbuzzedbyaRussianaircraftintheBlackSea,withtheplanecomingwithin300metresofthewarship.HMCSTorontolockeditsradarontheRussianplanebuttook
nofurtheractionastheaircraftwasnotarmed.ThisincidentcoincidedwithlargerRussiannavalcombattrainingactivitiesnearSevastopol.Suchaggressivebehaviour,ifrepeatedbyanarmedaircraft,couldhaveresultedin
theshipcommandertargetingtheaircraftinanactofself-defence.
On17September2014twoRussianmilitaryaircraftcrossedintoSwedishair-spacesouthoftheislandofOland.TheRussianSu-24bombersintentionallyviolatedSwedishairspacepossiblytotestthecapabilitiesoftheair
defencesystemstrengthenedafterpreviousincidents.TheSwedishForeignMinisterdescribedtheincidentasthemostseriousaerialincursioninyears.
On19September2014RussianofficersdetainedaLithuanianshippingvesselininternationalwatersintheBarentsSea,subsequentlytowingittoMurmansk.ThisrepresentedaclearescalationinRussianattemptsatthe
provocationandintimidationoftheBalticStates.
On3October2014aRussianfighterflewwithinmetresofSwedishsurveillanceaircraftintheBalticinanincidentdeemedunusuallyprovocative.Acollisionbetweentheaircraftwouldhavehadseriousrepercussions
forbilateralrelationsandincreasedmilitarytensionsacrosstheentireBalticarea.
From28-30October2014,RussiaconductedamajorairexerciseintheNorthSea,Atlantic,BlackSeaandBalticSea.Inaseriesofdevelopments,aircraftfromNATOstatesandpartnerstrackedRussianlong-range
bombersconductingmissionsacrossthisentirearea,includingalargeformationofRussianfightersandbombersconductingmissionsovertheBalticSea.Allmissionswereconductedininternationalairspacebuttheirscale
anduseofdifferentkindsofaircraftanddifferentzonesofoperationhasaddedsignificantlytoincreasedtensionsbetweenNATOandRussia.
NearRoutineIncidents
On10April2014twoRussianNavyvesselsinvolvedinlivemissilefiringexercisesenteredLithuaniasBalticmaritimeeconomiczone,causingseriousdisruptiontoshipping.
On20April2014aRussianreconaircraftobservedSwedishmilitaryinstallations.UncleariftherewasaSwedishresponse.
On23April2014aRussianaircraftenteredDutchairspacebeforebeinginterceptedbyDutchfighteraircraft.
On24April2014RAFfightersinterceptedandshadowedRussianaircraftininternationalairspaceovertheNorthSea.
On28April2014,fighterswiththeNatoBalticAirPolicingforcescrambledtointerceptRussianaircraftininternationalairspace.
On9May2014Russianaircraftapproachedtowithin50milesoftheCaliforniancoast,theclosestsuchRussianmilitaryflightsincetheColdWar.
On18May2014RAFfightersinterceptedaRussianhelicopterandshadoweditbacktoitsparentcorvetteintheBalticSeathefighterslaterperformedseveralpassesoftheRussianwarship.
InlateMay,earlyJune2014RussianaircraftcarriedoutseveralincursionsintotheUSandCanadianAirDefenceIdentificationZonesintheArctic.
On12June2014,NatofightersinterceptedRussianaircraftininternationalairspacenearLatvia.
On17June2014,RAFfightersinterceptedaRussianairformationininternationalairspace.
On19June2014HMSMontrose,aBritishfrigate,wassenttoinvestigateaRussiancorvetteininternationalwatersnearDenmarksBalticcoast.HMSMontrosewassubsequentlycircledbyRussianmaritimepatrol
aircraft.
From21Mayto13August2014,aseriesofshortairspaceviolationsbyRussianaircraftwerereportedovertheEstonianislandofVaindloo.
On1August,PolishfightersoftheNatoBalticair-policingmissioninterceptedRussianaircraftflyingnearEstoniaairspace.
InearlyAugust2014severalRussianairincursionswerereportedintotheAlaskanAirDefenceIdentificationZone.
On7August2014anti-submarineforcesofRussiasNorthernFleetreportedlyexpelledanAmericansubmarinefromtheBarentsSea.TheUSdenieditssubmarineswereoperatinginthearea.
On28August2014,therewasanairincidentinvolvinganunknownNatocountryandRussia.NodetailsbeyondaircrafttypeexceptthatincidenttookplaceovertheBaltic.
InAugust/September2014,RussiannavalandairunitsinterferedwiththeoperationsofaFinnishresearchvesselontwoseparateoccasions.
InlateAugust,2014,multiplebreachesofFinnishair-spacebyRussianstateaircraftwerereported.Inresponse,Finlandhasalreadyindicatedthatitwillreactmorefirmlytoviolationsofitsairspaceinfuture.
On11September2014,CanadianjetsinterceptedRussianaircraftininternationalairspace.
Betweenthe17and18September2014,RussianjetsenteredtheADIZoffthecoastofAlaska(officialssaysuchincidentshappenaround10timesayear)ontwoseparateoccasions,onceontheeveningofWednesday
17thSep(USAADIZ)andonceonthemorningofThursday18thSep(CanadianADIZ,BeaufortSea).TheRussianplaneswereinterceptedbyAmericanandCanadianfighters.TheseincidentscoincidewithUkrainian
PresidentPetroPoroshenkosvisitstoOttawaandWashington.
On19September2014,RAFjetsshadowedRussianaircraftininternationalairspaceabovethenorthsea.
On29September2014,LatvianforcesobservedaRussianwarshipoperating14milesfromLatvianterritorialwatersarticleobservesthatRussianjetsandwarshipshavebeendetected173timesnearLatviasbordersas
ofSeptember.
On20October2014,planesfromtheBalticAirPolicingmissioninterceptedRussiansurveillanceIl-20aircraftininternationalairspace
On21October2014BalticAirPolicingplanes(PortugueseF-16s)interceptedRussianIl-20surveillanceaircraftwhichenteredEstonianairspacenexttotheislandofSaaremaforaboutaminute.
On31October2014,RAFTyphoonsinterceptedRussianaircraftapproachingUKairspace.
Subject:VladimirPutinaccusesUSofleakingflightpathofjettoTurkey|DailyMailOnline
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3335625/They-knew-exact-time-exact-place-Putin-accuses-leaking-flight-path-doomed-jet-Turkey
-fearsome-anti-aircraft-missiles-roll-Syria.html

'Theyknewtheexacttimeandtheexactplace':Putinaccuses
AmericaofLEAKINGflightpathofdoomedjettoTurkey...
ashisfearsomeanti-aircraftmissilesrollintoSyria
PutinhasaccusedtheU.S.ofbeingcomplicitinthedestructionofitsjet
TheRussianjetwasdownedbyTurkeyafteritenteredTurkishairspace
HeclaimedRussiagavetheU.S.theflightpathdataforthedoomedaircraft
Thiswaseither'leaked'orit'doesnotcontrolwhatitsalliesaredoing'
Meanwhile,Russia'sfearsomeS-400missilesystemshavearrivedinSyria
PutinhasalsoagreedtocoordinateairstrikeswithFranceagainstISIS
SeeourfullcoverageonVladimirPutinatwww.dailymail.co.uk/putin
ByCoreyCharltonforMailOnline
Published:17:29EST,26November2015|Updated:06:24EST,27November2015
RussianpresidentVladimirPutinhasaccusedtheU.S.ofbeingcomplicitinthedestructionofitsmilitaryjetthreedaysago
-suggestingtheAmericansknewexactlywhenandwhereitwastravelling.
InapressconferenceattheKremlinyesterday,PutinsaidtheRussianshadgivenpriorinformationtotheU.S.oftheflight
pathoftheplane-buttheU.S.had'leaked'theinformationtoTurkey.
Inotherdevelopments,Putin'sdreadedS-400anti-aircraftmissilesystems-mobilisedinthewakeofthejet'sdestruction-were
photographedbeingunloadedfrommilitarytransportsinSyria.
HealsovowedtojoinFranceincoordinatingbombingcampaignsagainstISISforcesandagreedtoshareintelligenceinformation.
Scrolldownforvideo
VladimirPutinhasaccusedtheU.S.ofknowingexactlywhenandwherethedoomedRussianjetwastravelling
InajointpressconferencewithFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollande,Putinalsodefendedhisdecisionto
mobilisethefearedS-400antiaircraftmissiles
RussiahasaccusedTurkeyof'plannedprovocation'andsupportingISISinsellinghumanorgansafteroneof
Moscow'sfighterjetswasshotdownbytheTurkisharmy(pictured)
Flight:ThismapshowstherouteoftheRussianjet(showninred),basedondatareleasedbytheTurkisharmy,
includingwhereitviolatedTurkishairspace,andtheareaintheTurkomenMountainswhereitcrashed
ItishopedthemovewillbethestartofclosertiesbetweenMoscowandtheU.S.-ledanti-ISIScoalitionfollowing
theParisterrorattacks-despitetheanimositybrewingoverthedownedjet.
TheTurkishmilitaryshottheRussianSu-24warplaneclosetotheSyrianborderonTuesdayaftertheysaidit
enteredthecountry'sairspace,causingariftinrelations.
Bothpilotsejectedfromtheplaneandone,CaptainKonstantinMurakhtin,wasrescuedbyRussianspecial
forcesafterhelandedintheforestinrebel-heldterritorybuttheother,LieutenantColonelOlegPeshkovwas
shotdeadbyrebels.
Putintoldgatheredmedia:'TheAmericanside,whichleadsthecoalitionthatTurkeybelongsto,knewabout
thelocationandtimeofourplanes'flights,andwewerehitexactlythereandatthattime.
'WhydidwepassthisinformationtotheAmericans?Eithertheywerenotcontrollingwhattheiralliesweredoing,
ortheyareleakingthisinformationallovertheplace.'
Aheadoftheconference,PutinandTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogantradedbarbs,withtheRussianleader
sayinghewaswaitingforanapologyandErdoganrulingoutanysuchmove.
Putinhasdismissedas'rubbish'Turkey'sclaimthatitwouldnothaveshotdownthejetifithadknownitwasRussian.
'They[ourplanes]haveidentificationsignsandthesearewellvisible.Insteadof...ensuringthisneverhappensagain,
wearehearingunintelligibleexplanationsandstatementsthatthereisnothingtoapologiseabout.'\
Russia'sfearsomeS-400anti-aircraftmissilesystems(pictured)arecapableofhittingtargets250milesaway
Picturesemergedyesterdayofthestate-of-the-artmissilesystems'arrivaltothebattlefieldsofSyria,
whilethewarofwordsbetweenPutinandErdoganintensified
TheS-400sarebasedinSyria'scoastalprovinceofLatakia,just30milesfromtheborderwithTurkey
andarecapableofstrikingtargetsa/thugerangeswithdeadlyprecision
PutindefendedhisdecisiontomobilisetheweaponryafterthedowningofaRussianjetbyTurkeywhich
MeanwhilePutinsaidoilsmugglingfromISIScontrolledterritoryintoTurkeymustbestoppedafterameetingwith
FrenchpresidentFrancoisHollandeinMoscow.
Hetoldapressconference:'Vehicles,carringoil,linedupinachaingoingbeyondthehorizonresemblingalivingoilpipe.
'DayandnighttheyaregoingtoTurkey.Trucksalwaysgothereloaded,andbackfromthere-empty.'
'WeassumethatthetoppoliticalleadershipofTurkeymightnotknowanythingaboutthis[illegaloiltrade].
Hardtobelieve,butitistheoreticallypossible.'
ItcameafterTurkishpresidentRecepTayyipErdoganrefutedanysuspicionsthatSyrianoilwasenteringhiscountryillegally.
Erdogansaid:'ThosewhoclaimwebuyoilfromDaesh(ISIS)areobligedtoproveit.'Ifnot,youareaslanderer.Shameonyou!'
Putin'sfearedS-400anti-aircraftbattalionshavelandedinSyriareadytodestroyanythreatstohisairforce.
Thesurface-to-airmissilesystemsarecapableofstrikingdowntargetsupto250milesawayandwereinstantlydeployed
totheregioninthewakeofTuesday'sconfrontation.
PhotographsemergedyesterdayofthemissilecarriersbeingdeployedinLatakia,northernSyria
Thestate-of-the-art,longrangesurfacetoairmissilesareunloadedfromaRussianmilitarytransport
Boastingamassivestrikerange,theS-400willbeabletoprotectRussianaircraftacrossmostofSyria
ThehighlyadvancedS-400anti-aircraftsystemRussiahasdeployedtoLatakiaoffersamassive250mile
TheS-400sarebasedinSyria'scoastalprovinceofLatakia,just30milesfromtheborderwithTurkeyandare
capableofstrikingtargetsahugerangeswithdeadlyprecision.
YesterdayPutindefendedhisdecisiontomobilisetheweaponryaftertheattackbyTurkeywhichheconsidered
abetrayal.
InajointpressconferencewithFrancoisHollandeattheKremlin,hesaid:'WedidnothavethosesystemsinSyria
[previously]becausewebelievedthatourairforcewasworkingatanaltitudewhichwouldnotbereachablebyterrorists.
'Theydonothavethisequipmentcapableofshootingdowntheaircraftat3,000to4,000metres.
'Wedidn'teventhinkthatwecouldreceiveastrikefromapartythatwethoughttobeourpartner.
'Ifwethoughtofthisbefore,wewouldhaveestablishedthesystemscapabletoprotectouraircraft.
'Thereasonwedidn'tdothisisbecausewethoughtTurkeytobeafriendlycountry.Weareour
establishingoursystemS-400whichiscapableoflongrangestrikesanditisoneofthemosteffective
systemsofthistypeintheworld.'
TheS-400'srangemeansitsmissilescouldreachdeepintoTurkeyorposeapotentialthreattoUS-led
coalitionplanes-addingyetanotherdangerouselementtoanalreadyvolatilemixofcompetingmilitary
interestsinSyria.
'It'sacapableweaponssystemthatposesasignificantthreattoanyone,'aUSofficialspeakingon
conditionofanonymitytoldAFP.'TherearesignificantconcernsrelatedtoairoperationsinSyria.'
AccusationsflungbackandforthfrombothRussiaandTurkeyinthewakeoftheconfrontationhave
furtheraggravatedthesituation.
TURKEYACCUSESRUSSIAOF'SLANDER'OVEROILCLAIMS
TurkishpresidentRecepTayyipErdogan(pictured)
hasdescribedRussianclaimsthatTurkeyisbuyingoil
fromISISas'slander'
ErdoganhasaccusedMoscowofslanderforclaiminghiscountrybuysoilfromISISasthefalloutbetween
thetwonationsoverthedownedfighterjetcontinuestoescalate.
Turkeyrefusedtoapologiseforthejet'sdestruction,thoughconcededinthefaceofharshRussianretaliatory
measuresitmayhaveacted'differently'haditknowntheplanewasRussian.
Intheaftermathoftheincident,RussiaaccusedTurkeyofpayingISISfightersinordertobuyoil.
ButErdoganlashedoutattheclaims,callingthemslanderous.
SpeakinginAnkarahesaid:'TheyclaimTurkeyisbuyingoilfromDaesh',usinganothernameforISIS.
'Shameonyou.ThosewhoclaimwebuyoilfromDaeshareobligedtoproveit.Ifnot,youareaslanderer.'
HetoldFrance24:'Theyarelies,theyareslander.Wehavenever,neverhadthiskindofcommercial
relationshipwithanyterrororganisation.Theyhavetoproveit,andiftheycan,TayyipErdoganwill
leaveoffice.'
ErdoganalsoturnedonRussia'ssupportoftheBasharal-Assadregime.RussiafurtherenragedTurkeywith
thelaunchofitsaircampaigninSyriainSeptember,accusingMoscowoffocusingitsfireonmoderaterebels
ratherthanISISjihadists.
Hesaid:'ThosewhocarryoutamilitarycampaignwiththepretextoffightingDaesharetargetinganti-regime
opponents.
'YousayyouarefightingDaesh.Excuseme,butyouarenotfightingDaesh.YouarekillingourTurkmenkinsmen
hand-in-handwiththeregimeinordertoclearareasnorthofLatakia.
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FW:[ALIL'EARLYBLACKFRIDAYREADING][MK/2]Fwd:Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'&RU:insearchofgeopolitical
Subject:
glory.....[WD/2]RUBlackSeaFleetuselessifBosphorusclosedtoRUbyTurkeyABaker'sDozenofRUStoriesfrom...
Subject:Fwd:[ALIL'EARLYBLACKFRIDAYREADING][MK/2]Fwd:Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'&RU:insearchof
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Subject:[ALIL'EARLYBLACKFRIDAYREADING][MK/2]Fwd:Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'&RU:
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RUStoriesfromPaulG(#12)......[GS]Apparently,theGuardianhastheinsideword'ontheperpsoftheCrimeanoutage'[...only
wishithadbeenthatgoodwith'thelil'greenmen']
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,Nov26,2015at11:53PM
Subject:Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/russian-airspace-violation-part-of-kremlin-policy/481503
Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'
Defenseanalystssayviolationsfollowpatternovermanyyears
26.11.2015Turkey,politics,analysisnews,todaysheadlines,europe
relatednews
TurkishpresidentspeakstoCNNInternational
ByAhmetGurhanKartal
LONDON
ThedowningofaRussianwarplanethatviolatedTurkishairspacewastheresultofdeliberate
Kremlinpolicy,accordingtoleadingdefenseanalysts.
NickWatts,thedeputydirectorgeneraloftheU.K.DefenceForum,saidtheincidentcameaftera
policychoicebyPresidentVladimirPutinsgovernment.
TherewasnothinginevitableabouttheshootingdownofaRussianSU-24onTuesday,hetold
AnadoluAgency.RussiahascarefullycalibrateditsactionsinSyria-aselsewhere.
HesaidtheRussianbombersincursionintoairspaceoverthesouthernTurkishprovinceofHatay
followedapatternofthreateningtheterritoryofbothNATOandothernationsovermanyyears.
WhathappenedonTuesdaywastheresultofapolicychoicebytheKremlin,Wattsclaimed.
OnTuesday,twopatrollingTurkishF-16fightersinterceptedtheRussianwarplaneand,under
Turkeysrulesofengagement,shotitdownafteritcrossedtheTurkey-Syriaborder.
Theintrudingaircraftwaswarnedabouttheviolation10timeswithinfiveminutes.
RussiahassaiditsaircraftdidnotcrossintoTurkeybeforeitwasshotdown.
However,aradartracemapandradiorecordsreleasedbytheTurkishmilitaryshowtheSU-24s
pathintoTurkishairspaceanddemonstratedthenumerouswarningsissuedtotheRussianpilots
byacommandcenterbasedinthesouthernTurkishprovinceofDiyarbakir.
NATOlaterconfirmedtheaccuracyofinformationsuppliedbyTurkey.
ThinktanksacrossEuropehavepreviouslypublisheddetailsofsimilarviolationsbyRussia
sincestartofthe2014UkrainecrisisandtheannexationofCrimea.
ThomasFrear,aresearchfellowwithEuropeanNetworkLeadership,saidhisgrouphad
consistentlywarnedthatthesharpincreaseinmilitaryencounterssincethebeginningofthe
Ukrainecrisishasmadetheriskofeitheranaccidentinvolvingacivilianaircraftoramiscalculation
resultinginamilitaryengagementincreasinglylikely.
Thisdangerismademoreacuteinlightoftheincreasinglylargemilitaryexercisesbeingstaged
bybothsides.Thelackofanymultilateralagreementonmanagingsuchencounters,whetherover
Syriaorelsewhere,dramaticallyincreaseschancesofescalation.
WarningtoRussia
WattssaidRussiashouldtakethelatestincidentasawarningfromNATO.
NATOhassoughttodownplaytheincidentonTuesday,hesaid.Thealliancewillbehopingthat
thisincidentwillbetakenbyMoscowasawarning-countriescandefendtheirsovereign
airspace.PerhapsthesamelessonwillbeappliedintheBaltics.
InadditiontoUkraine,theBalticregionisanareawhereNATOiswaryofincreasedRussian
aggression.
Lastmonth,U.K.DefenseSecretaryMichaelFallonunveiledplanstostationBritishtroopsinthe
regiontorespondtoanyfurtherprovocationandaggressiontowardsNATOallies.
FreartoldAnadoluAgencythatNATOshouldbeclearinitsmessagetoRussiafollowing
Tuesdaysepisode.
ThisincidentshouldfocusmindsatNATOregardingdeterminingamorestandardresponseto
futureRussianincursions,ascurrentlyeachNATOmemberfollowstheirownrulesof
engagement,hesaid.
AdeterminedresponseinthisrespectwouldsendaclearsignaltoRussiathattherearenoweak
linksinthealliance.
HesaidhedidnotanticipateanescalationintensionbetweenTurkeyandRussiabutpointedout
thatNATOwouldbeobligedtoassistTurkeyintheeventofanythreat.
AnyRussianretaliationagainstTurkeywillalmostcertainlybeofamoreindirectnaturethana
militaryresponse,hesaid.
WehavealreadyseenForeignMinister[Sergei]LavrovdiscourageRussiantouristsfromvisiting
TurkeyAnymilitaryresponseisadifferentmatter.However,wehavenoreasontobelievethat
otherNATOallieswouldrenegeontheirArticle4andArticle5obligationstoTurkeyifRussia
threatensorattacksit.
UnderArticle4,aNATOmembercancallameetingofothermembersifitfeelsitsindependence
orsecurityarethreatened.Article5isthekeystoneofNATOandstatesthatanattackonone
memberisanattackagainstallunderthenotionofcollectiveself-defense.
However,itonlycommitsamemberstatetoassistandtakesuchactionasitdeemsnecessary.
Itdoesnotautomaticallyresultinmilitaryaction.
TheNATOallianceneedstobemoreconsciousofwhattheArticle5guaranteeactually
represents,Wattssaid.
RussianjetspreviouslyviolatedTurkishairspaceinearlyOctober.Followingthetwoincursions,
Russianofficialsapologizedandpledgednottorepeattheincidents.TurkeyalsowarnedRussia
aboutitsrulesofengagementonitssouthernborder,includingapossiblemilitaryresponse.
Date:Sun,Nov8,2015at10:35PM
Subject:Russia:insearchofgeopoliticalglory-EuropeanGeostrategy[Sentearlier....stillrelevant]
http://www.europeangeostrategy.org/2015/11/russia-in-search-of-geopolitical-glory/
Russia:insearchofgeopoliticalglory
Postedin:ArticlesonSunday,8thNovember2015bySijbrendeJong,KarlijnJans,WillemOosterveld
Imagecredit:BrandtLukeZorn
WithitsrecentinterventioninSyria,manyclaimthatRussiascoredyetanothergeopoliticalcoup.With
thewarinUkrainestallingandCrimeafirmlyinRussianhands,PresidentVladimirPutinsurprisedfriend
andfoealikewithMoscowsfirstmilitaryinterventionoutsidetheformerSovietspaceindecades.This
showofforceintwotheatresisnotonlymeanttodemonstratethatRussiaisbackontheworldstage,
butalsothatitcanputotherpowersonthebackfootifitsodesires.Thus,PresidentPutinisoften
praisedforhistacticalnous,butwhetherinthelongrunhisventureswillalsopayofffromastrategic
pointofviewlooksdecidedlylesscertain.AlthoughPutinsobjectiveislikelytogarnerrespectforhis
countryinsomecircles,doingsobyseriouslyjeopardisinggoodrelationswithcountrieswestandsouth
ofitsborderandbeyond,hardlyamountstoasanegeopoliticalstrategy.
AssadornoAssad?Thatisthequestion
TostartwithSyria:here,Russiadecidedon30SeptembertointerveneattheinvitationofPresident
Basharal-Assad,inanattempttoshoreupAssadsincreasinglyfragilepositionvis-a-visthevariousrebel
forcesandtheIslamicState(ISIS).Thecomplexityoftheconflictthatnowincludesdirectinvolvement
onthepartofIranaswell,ledamonthlatertotalksinViennaaimedtokickstartaprocessthatshould
leadtoadiplomaticsolutiontotheconflict.However,whereasRussiahasbeentalkingaboutnew
electionsinSyria,leavingopentheroleofAssad,fewbelievethattheUS,theGulfcountriesandRussia
areabletobridgethegapbetweentheirpositions.AlthoughtheUShassofteneditsstanceonAssad,
sayingthathedoesnotneedtostepdownimmediately,itremainsclearthattheUSdoesnotseealong-
termfuturefortheAssadfamilyinSyria.TheGulfcountriesfortheirparthavebeenamongthemost
ferventsupportersoftherebelsfightingAssadandshowlittleenthusiasmfortheSyrianleadertoremain
inpower,evenifthiswouldbeinatransitionalrole.
Whatismore,ifrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWesthadnotalreadybeensouredenough,Moscows
Syrianinterventionmadethingsworse:first,byupsettingWashingtonsstrategytocreate,togetherwith
Turkey,asafezoneforrefugeesandsecondly,bycomplicatingthefightagainstISISbyconstrainingthe
freedomofactioninNorthernSyriaofAmericanandcoalitionjetfighters.
Russiasriskygamble
ButthesearenottheonlyfeathersRussiahasmanagedtoruffle.ForintryingtoshoreupPresident
Assad,RussiaiscausingSaudiArabia,whichstronglysupportstheSyrianopposition,tofightback.
Ratherthanresorttoweapons,SaudiArabiareliesonitsmostpotentsourceofpower,oil.Inanapparent
attempttoundermineRussiaspositioninEurope,SaudiArabiastartedsupplyingoiltoPolandin
October2015atasignificantdiscount.ThemovepromptedIgorSechin,theCEOofRussianstate-
ownedoilcompanyRosneft,toaccusetheSaudisofdumpingpractices.AlthoughRussiaforitspart
hasbeenbattlingtheSaudisforashareofthelucrativeAsianmarketalreadyforsometime,onecannot
helpbutfeelthatRiyadhsrecentmovehasatleastasmuchtodowithretaliationforRussiasincursions
intoSyria.InviewofhowRussiaisreelingfromeconomicsanctionsandacollapseofthepriceofoil,
SaudiArabiasaggressivepricediscountingcouldnotcomeataworsemomentforPutin.
RelationswithTurkeyarefaringarguablyevenworse.Sincelate2014,Putinhasbeenattemptingto
constructanaturalgaspipelinefromRussiatoTurkey,theso-calledTurkishStreampipeline.
Negotiationsprovedthorny,withbothpartiesfailingtoagreeonapricediscount.Underpressurein
Europeandforcedtomakenewfriends,Gazpromsnegotiatingpositionvis--visTurkeyareweak,
somethingwhichAnkaraseekstocleverlyexploit.Whenon27October2015RussiaandTurkeyhadstill
notmanagedtoagreeapricediscount,Turkishstate-ownedpipelinecompanyBOTASdecidedtofilea
caseforinternationalarbitrationagainstGazprom.Bynow,itincreasinglylooksasifRussiasSyria
adventureshavesqueezedthelastbitofsteamoutofTurkishStream.
RussiasinvolvementinSyriahasonlyservedtofurtherstrainanalreadytenserelationship.
RussiasincursionsintoTurkishairspaceinearlyOctoberpromptedtheireofNATOandTurkey.During
avisittoBrusselsinearlyOctober,TurkishPresidentErdoganissuedasternwarningtoMoscow,stating
itriskeddestroyingitsfriendshipwithAnkara,addingthatTurkeywouldnotstandbyidlywhenRussian
warplanesviolateitsairspace.Withaconvincingelectionvictoryunderhisbelt,itisexpectedthat
presidentErdoganwillupthestakesevenmoreinseekingtohaveAssadremovedfrompowerby
carvingoutspaceofitsowninSyriaalbeitmostlyattheexpenseoflocalKurdishforcesand
strategicspaceatthenegotiationtable.
ButtheimpactofRussiasinterventionisunlikelytoremainconfinedtotheMiddleEastitself.Russia
alsohasmillionsofSunniMuslimswithinitsborders.AndalthoughRussiasactionsarecheeredby
ShiiteMuslimsthroughouttheregion,theregionsSunnipopulationisscandalised.Indeed,itdidnottake
longforISandthelocalAl-QaedaaffiliateJabhatal-NusratocallonMuslimstowageaJihadagainst
RussiaandkillRussiansathome.Theannouncementbringsbacknastymemoriesoftheviolentdaysof
theChechenwars,whichsawnumeroushigh-profileterroristattacksthatreachedtheheartofMoscow.
SincethestartofRussiasintervention,reportshaveemergedthatISisonarecruitmentspreeinRussias
northernCaucasus,raisinglong-termconcernsthatbattle-hardenedJihadiswillstartmakingtheirway
backtoRussia.
Mastertactician,poorstrategist
Atfirstglance,thereislittlethatdeniestheobservationthatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinknowns
howtoputhisopponentsonabackfoot,whetheritistheEuropeans,theAmericansoreventheIranians
andtheGulfStates.Thisistoshowthatwhenitcomestotactics,Putinisamasterofthegame.He
showedthisinSyriatwoyearsago,inUkrainelastyear,andthistimearoundoncemoreinSyria.Inthe
longtermhowever,byprimarilyscoringtacticalpointsPutinrisksupsettingRussiasrelationswithmany
vitalneighboursandpartnerssuchasTurkeyandSaudiArabia,killinghigh-profileenergyprojectsand
underminingRussiaspositionintheEuropeanenergymarketintheprocess.Althoughtacticsmaywin
battles,strategiesultimatelywinthewar.Or,toadaptaquotefromone-timeUSenvoytoRussiaJohn
QuincyAdams,inseekinginternationalrespectabilityoneshouldnotgoabroadformonsterstopreserve.
ItisnotpossibletorepublishthisarticlewithouttheexpresspermissionofEuropeanGeostrategy.
Subject:RUBlackSeaFleetuselessifBosphorusclosedtoRUbyTurkey
TASS:KremlinhopesnocomplicationsinBlackSeastraitshipping
26.11.2015|19:29
00000
MoscowsaysithopesthatcomplicationsinrelationswithTurkeywillhavenoeffectonshippingacrossBlackSeastraits
governedbytheMontreuxConvention,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaidonThursday,accordingtoRussiannews
agencyTASS.
KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovisconcernedaboutshippingacrossBlackSeastraits/Photofrompasmi.ru
"We,ofcourse,countontheinviolabilityoftherulesonthefreedomofshippingacrossBlackSeastraits,"Peskovtoldjournalists,TASS
wrote.
TherulesofseashippingacrosstheBosphorusandDardanellesStraitsintheBlackSeaaregovernedbythe1938MontreuxConvention,
theKremlinspokesmansaid.
TheMontreuxConventionallowsmerchantshipsfromtheallthecountriestopassfreelythroughtheseastraitsintimeofpeaceandwar.
However,itstipulatesadifferentregimefornavalshipsofBlackSeaandnon-BlackSeacountriestopassthroughthestraits.
GivenpreliminarynotificationoftheTurkishauthorities,BlackSeapowerscanhavetheirnavalshipsofanyclasspassthroughthestraits
inpeacetime,TASSwrote.
ReadmoreonUNIAN:http://www.unian.info/world/1195485-tass-kremlin-hopes-no-complications-in-black-sea-strait-shipping.html
Subject:ABaker'sDozenofNeglectedRussianStories-No.12
ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.12
PaulGoble
Staunton,November27--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandoftenstrangeastheRussian
Federationoftenappearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomarkthosewhichcant
bediscussedindetailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore.
Consequently,WindowsonEurasiawillpresentaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstoriesattheend
ofeachweek.Thisistheeleventhsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcompleteindeed,thisweekonceagain,
onecouldhaveputoutsuchalistingeveryday,butperhapsoneormoreofthesestorieswillproveofbroaderinterest.
1.MoreEnemies,MoreHonor.FascistdictatorBenitoMussolinibelievedthatthemoreenemieshehad,themorehonorhe
hadaswell.VladimirPutinappearstohaveadoptedthissloganaswell(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=565446B8A12D1).That
hasmanyconsequences,butoneisintriguing:therearefewerandfewercountriesRussiansareencouragedtotraveltobutfew
ofthoseareonestheyhaveanyinterestin(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5655E8DB5D086).
2.ZhirinovskyWantsArmenianstoInvadeTurkey.Asiftheworlddoesnthaveenoughproblems,flamboyantLDPRleader
VladimirZhirinovskysaysthatArmeniashouldinvadeTurkeytopunishAnkaraforthedowningoftheRussianwarplaneandto
recoverArmenianlands(en.a1plus.am/1223480.html).
3.MoscowWantsaSingleCossackOrganization.TheKremlinwantssomethingthathasneverexistedbefore:asingle
centralizedCossackorganizationorpowerverticalthatwouldpreventtheCossacksfromrevivingtheirregionalistand
independent-mindedtraditionsandensurethattheywouldsimplybeavailabletodowhatMoscowwants
(interfax.ru/russia/481510).
4.RussianDiplomatsUseSameSpeechatUNforEightYearsinaRow.Inaremarkabledisplayofconsistency,Russian
diplomatsattheUnitedNationsusedthesamespeechfortheeighthyearinarow,yetanotherindicationthatsomethingsnever
change(rbc.ru/politics/20/11/2015/564f31ac9a7947b624abc7fb).
5.DumaMovestoLegalizeBuyingVotes.Russianelectionsjusttookanotherstepawayfromgenuinedemocracy:theDuma
hastakenupameasurethatwilllegalizethebuyingofvotes,somethingthatmaygivethecash-richrulingpartyanevengreater
advantagebutonethatsuggestssomeofitsownadministrativemeasuresmaynolongerbeworkingaswellasitwouldlike
(newizv.ru/politics/2015-11-26/231193-podarok-vozle-urny.html).
6.PutininChocolate.AchocolatierinSt.Petersburghasmadealife-sizestatueofVladimirPutininchocolate.Nowordon
howlongthatstatuewilllastorwhatwillhappentothechocolate(qha.com.ua/ru/obschestvo/sladkii-putin-vo-ves-rost/151587/).
7.ReindeerHerdersGetTheirOwnWebsite.Russiasreindeerherders,whopracticeoneoftheoldestformsofeconomic
activity,nowareusingoneofthemostmoderntechniques:Theyhavetheirownwebsitetocommunicatewitheachotherandshare
ideas(urh-nao.ru/).
8.KrymnashaSourceofPrideinRussiaBecomesSlangforStealinginGerman.SlightlyoverhalfofallRussianssay
thattheslogan,Crimeaisours,isstillasourceofpridebutinGermany,thetermkriymnashhaspassedintoslangasaword
fortheft(slon.ru/posts/60130andecho.msk.ru/news/1663188-echo.html).
9.RegnumsKolerovKeepsReportingGorbachevsDeath.Tabloidjournalistsoftentrytoattractattentionbyreportingthings
thathaventhappenedoratleasthaventhappenedyet.ButfewcanmatchtherecordofModestKolerovofRegnumwho
keepsreportingthepassingofthefirstSovietpresidentdespiteclearevidencethatheisstillverymuchalive
(novayagazeta.ru/politics/70842.html).
10.PutinOperaOpensinVienna.AnoperainwhichVladimirPutinisthemaincharacterhasdebutedintheAustriancapital,but
theKremlinleadermaybelessthanpleasedbecausetheformeroligarchKhodorkovskyisamajorfigureinittoo
(style.rbc.ru/news/art/2015/11/20/22270/).
11.FSBNowTrackingEveryMullahinRussia.ForeverymullahandimaminRussia,thereisnowasupervisorfromthe
Russianspecialservices,aremarkablecommitmentofstateresourcesgiventhatthereareprobablymorethan20,000suchpeople
inthecountryatthepresenttime(nusra.info/6089/byvshij-muftij-tsdum-za-kazhdym-imamom-stoit-kurator-iz-spetssluzhb/).
12.FactsareWhateverCorrespondstoStateNeeds,MedynskySays.Russiascultureministersaysthatfactsmust
correspondtostateinterestsratherthantheotherwayaround(gazeta.ru/science/news/2015/11/19/n_7907945.shtml).Thus,itis
notsurprisingthatoneofeveryfiverectordissertationsisafakeandthatanyonewhoreleasesrealinformationsothatotherscan
trackwhatisgoingonwillbepilloriedbytheauthorities
(grani.ru/Society/Science/m.246089.htmlandregnum.ru/news/polit/2017644.html).
13.MorningorAfternoon?AnewRussiangovernmentprogramseemscertaintoreviveoneofRonaldReagansfavorite
jokesabouttheUSSR.Russianscannowgoonlinetofindoutwhentheirapartmentbuildingsareslatedforrenovation.Someare
notscheduledfortwoorthreedecades(apn.ru/publications/article34352.htm).Andconsequently,someofthemmaybeginasking
thekindofquestionReaganreferredtoduringMikhailGorbachevsfirstvisittotheUS.AyoungSovietmanwenttoan
automobiledealershiptobuyacar,Reagansaid,paidhismoneyandaskedwhenitwouldbeready.Thesalesmanlookedathis
bookandsaiditwouldbeSeptember15,2015.Thepurchaserthenaskedmorningorafternoon?Thesalesmanwasaghast.
Howcoulditmattergiventhatthedatewassofarinthefuture.Well,saidtheyoungman,theplumberhaspromisedtocomethat
morning.
From:GRS
Subject:Apparently,theGuardianhastheinsideword
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
CrimeansdescribelifeduringblackoutafterattacksfromUkraine
Hospitalsarestruggling,businesseshaveclosedandpublictransporthasgroundtoahalt.RFE/RLtalkstolocalsfacingprolonged
powercuts
Guardian
Crimeanresidentsarelearningtolivewiththawingfridges,pitch-darkhighwaysandshutteredschoolsaweek
afterUkrainianmiliantsbeganattackingthepowerlinesfeedingtheregion.[ED:Jeez....the
Guardianafter18monthsisnotsurethatRUtroopsevermovedintoUkraine,butafteraweek,
itseemscertainthatUAmilitantsbroughtdownthepowertowersfeedingCrimeaelectricity
notevenone'....alleged....'inthepiece]
AsRussianauthoritiesscrambletorestorepower,almost2millionpeoplehavebeenleftwithoutelectricity.
Despitethehumofgeneratorsfillingthestreets,mostbusinesseshavebeenforcedtoshutdownor
dramaticallyscalebacktheiroperations.
Majortownsarereceivingelectricityforafewhoursadaywhilesomevillageshavenopoweratall.
VladimirPutinhashitoutattheUkrainiangovernment,sayingwithouttheirtacitbackingthecut-offwouldnot
havebeenpossible.
RussiaisworkingtofinishacableacrosstheKerchstraittolinkCrimeatotheRussianmainland,butitwillnot
befinisheduntilthesecondhalfofDecember,andeventhenwillonlyprovidehalfofCrimeasenergyneeds.
Fornow,hundredsofgeneratorshavebeenshippedtotheregion.
Therearenomorecandlesandbatteriesinshops.Everythinghasbeenboughtup,saysYekaterina,a
residentofDzhankoyinnorthernCrimea.
Some150schoolsandnurserieshavebeencloseduntilfurthernoticeaspartofemergencymeasuresimposed
bythedefactoauthoritiesthatcametopowerwhenRussiaannexedthepeninsulainMarch2014.
TheCrimeanprimeminister,SergeiAksyonov,calledthedestructionoftheelectricitysupplyaterroristact.
NoonewillbringCrimeanstotheirknees,wewontallowfornegotiations,hesaid.Wewontletanyone
speaktousinthelanguageofblackmail.
Presently,back-uppowerreservesareprovingunabletoadequatelysupplyCrimeashospitals.
Thesituationcouldposeseriousriskstopeopleslives,saysOlgaSkripnik,aCrimeanhumanrights
campaigner.Manypeoplealsocomplainthatduetothelackofmobilenetworkstheyareunabletocall
ambulancesandfiredepartments.
Wereusedtoit
Itsbeenaturbulentfewmonthsfortheregionsresidents,whohavefoundthemselvesatthecentreofa
geopoliticalstorm,butmanyareputtingonabraveface.
Ithinktheproblemswillberesolved,everythingwillbealright,saysanewspapervendorinSimferopol,the
regionalcapital.
Wearenotworriedaboutanything,noteventherefrigerators,onewomaninSimferopolsaid.ItsOK.Well
getthroughit.Wereusedtoit.
Elderlyresidents,recallingthesecondworldwarandtheshortagesexperiencedbeforeandaftertheSoviet
breakupof1991,appeartobetakingtheblackoutinstride.
Whatistheretosaywhenthereisnoelectricity?saysValentina,anelderlywomansittingonabenchin
Simferopol.No,wait,wehaveelectricitytoday,shesuddenlyremembers.
Thatwasyesterday,oneofherfriendscorrectsfromthenextbench.
Todaywehavenowater,Valentinaexplains.
Howeverfrustrationismountingoverthetransportationproblemsbroughtonbytheblackouttramsno
longerrun,trafficlightsareswitchedoffandthestreetsandhighwaysareeerilydark.
Gasstationshavebeenshuttingdownoneaftertheother,creatinglonglinesoutsidethosestillopenforservice.
Idontunderstand,whyisntthereanyelectricity?asksadriver,queuinguptorefuelatapetrolstationin
Simferopol.WeweretoldthatCrimeaisready,thatithasstationswhichcanprovideelectricitytothewholeof
Crimea.Whyarenttheydoingitthen.Havetheyvanished?
Sofar,themajorityofCrimeansappeartoblametheirwoesonUkrainiannationalistsandCrimeanTatars,who
havebeenpreventingengineersfromrepairingthedamagedelectricitypylons.
ThenationalistsinmainlandUkraine,whichsuppliesapproximately70%ofCrimeasenergyneeds,saidthey
wouldallowtherepairworkonlyifRussiareleasedpoliticalprisonersareferencetoanumberofpeople
whohavebeenjailedonchargessupporterssayaretrumped-upandletCrimeanTatarleadersreturnto
theirhomes.
Inthemeantime,Crimeansarebracingforweeksofdisruptionsandshortages.
TheseniorofficialamongtheRussianauthoritieswhocontrolCrimea,SergeiAksyonov,saiditmighttakehis
governmentanentiremonthtorestoreelectricitytothepeninsula.
Ifyouseizeaterritory,saidDmitry,aresidentofthesouthernportcityofFeodosia,thenpleasebekind
enoughtosupplyelectricity.

Senttime: 11/27/201508:44:03AM
FW:[ALIL'EARLYBLACKFRIDAYREADING][MK/2]Fwd:Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'&RU:insearchofgeopolitical
Subject:
glory.....[WD/2]RUBlackSeaFleetuselessifBosphorusclosedtoRUbyTurkeyABaker'sDozenofRUStoriesfrom...
Subject:Fwd:[ALIL'EARLYBLACKFRIDAYREADING][MK/2]Fwd:Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'&RU:insearchof
geopoliticalglory.....[WD/2]RUBlackSeaFleetuselessifBosphorusclosedtoRUbyTurkeyABaker'sDozenofRUStoriesfrom...
Subject:[ALIL'EARLYBLACKFRIDAYREADING][MK/2]Fwd:Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'&RU:
insearchofgeopoliticalglory.....[WD/2]RUBlackSeaFleetuselessifBosphorusclosedtoRUbyTurkeyABaker'sDozenof
RUStoriesfromPaulG(#12)......[GS]Apparently,theGuardianhastheinsideword'ontheperpsoftheCrimeanoutage'[...only
wishithadbeenthatgoodwith'thelil'greenmen']
Subject:Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'
http://www.aa.com.tr/en/turkey/russian-airspace-violation-part-of-kremlin-policy/481503
Russianairspaceviolation'partofKremlinpolicy'
Defenseanalystssayviolationsfollowpatternovermanyyears
26.11.2015Turkey,politics,analysisnews,todaysheadlines,europe
relatednews
TurkishpresidentspeakstoCNNInternational
ByAhmetGurhanKartal
LONDON
ThedowningofaRussianwarplanethatviolatedTurkishairspacewastheresultofdeliberate
Kremlinpolicy,accordingtoleadingdefenseanalysts.
NickWatts,thedeputydirectorgeneraloftheU.K.DefenceForum,saidtheincidentcameaftera
policychoicebyPresidentVladimirPutinsgovernment.
TherewasnothinginevitableabouttheshootingdownofaRussianSU-24onTuesday,hetold
AnadoluAgency.RussiahascarefullycalibrateditsactionsinSyria-aselsewhere.
HesaidtheRussianbombersincursionintoairspaceoverthesouthernTurkishprovinceofHatay
followedapatternofthreateningtheterritoryofbothNATOandothernationsovermanyyears.
WhathappenedonTuesdaywastheresultofapolicychoicebytheKremlin,Wattsclaimed.
OnTuesday,twopatrollingTurkishF-16fightersinterceptedtheRussianwarplaneand,under
Turkeysrulesofengagement,shotitdownafteritcrossedtheTurkey-Syriaborder.
Theintrudingaircraftwaswarnedabouttheviolation10timeswithinfiveminutes.
RussiahassaiditsaircraftdidnotcrossintoTurkeybeforeitwasshotdown.
However,aradartracemapandradiorecordsreleasedbytheTurkishmilitaryshowtheSU-24s
pathintoTurkishairspaceanddemonstratedthenumerouswarningsissuedtotheRussianpilots
byacommandcenterbasedinthesouthernTurkishprovinceofDiyarbakir.
NATOlaterconfirmedtheaccuracyofinformationsuppliedbyTurkey.
ThinktanksacrossEuropehavepreviouslypublisheddetailsofsimilarviolationsbyRussia
sincestartofthe2014UkrainecrisisandtheannexationofCrimea.
ThomasFrear,aresearchfellowwithEuropeanNetworkLeadership,saidhisgrouphad
consistentlywarnedthatthesharpincreaseinmilitaryencounterssincethebeginningofthe
Ukrainecrisishasmadetheriskofeitheranaccidentinvolvingacivilianaircraftoramiscalculation
resultinginamilitaryengagementincreasinglylikely.
Thisdangerismademoreacuteinlightoftheincreasinglylargemilitaryexercisesbeingstaged
bybothsides.Thelackofanymultilateralagreementonmanagingsuchencounters,whetherover
Syriaorelsewhere,dramaticallyincreaseschancesofescalation.
WarningtoRussia
WattssaidRussiashouldtakethelatestincidentasawarningfromNATO.
NATOhassoughttodownplaytheincidentonTuesday,hesaid.Thealliancewillbehopingthat
thisincidentwillbetakenbyMoscowasawarning-countriescandefendtheirsovereign
airspace.PerhapsthesamelessonwillbeappliedintheBaltics.
InadditiontoUkraine,theBalticregionisanareawhereNATOiswaryofincreasedRussian
aggression.
Lastmonth,U.K.DefenseSecretaryMichaelFallonunveiledplanstostationBritishtroopsinthe
regiontorespondtoanyfurtherprovocationandaggressiontowardsNATOallies.
FreartoldAnadoluAgencythatNATOshouldbeclearinitsmessagetoRussiafollowing
Tuesdaysepisode.
ThisincidentshouldfocusmindsatNATOregardingdeterminingamorestandardresponseto
futureRussianincursions,ascurrentlyeachNATOmemberfollowstheirownrulesof
engagement,hesaid.
AdeterminedresponseinthisrespectwouldsendaclearsignaltoRussiathattherearenoweak
linksinthealliance.
HesaidhedidnotanticipateanescalationintensionbetweenTurkeyandRussiabutpointedout
thatNATOwouldbeobligedtoassistTurkeyintheeventofanythreat.
AnyRussianretaliationagainstTurkeywillalmostcertainlybeofamoreindirectnaturethana
militaryresponse,hesaid.
WehavealreadyseenForeignMinister[Sergei]LavrovdiscourageRussiantouristsfromvisiting
TurkeyAnymilitaryresponseisadifferentmatter.However,wehavenoreasontobelievethat
otherNATOallieswouldrenegeontheirArticle4andArticle5obligationstoTurkeyifRussia
threatensorattacksit.
UnderArticle4,aNATOmembercancallameetingofothermembersifitfeelsitsindependence
orsecurityarethreatened.Article5isthekeystoneofNATOandstatesthatanattackonone
memberisanattackagainstallunderthenotionofcollectiveself-defense.
However,itonlycommitsamemberstatetoassistandtakesuchactionasitdeemsnecessary.
Itdoesnotautomaticallyresultinmilitaryaction.
TheNATOallianceneedstobemoreconsciousofwhattheArticle5guaranteeactually
represents,Wattssaid.
RussianjetspreviouslyviolatedTurkishairspaceinearlyOctober.Followingthetwoincursions,
Russianofficialsapologizedandpledgednottorepeattheincidents.TurkeyalsowarnedRussia
aboutitsrulesofengagementonitssouthernborder,includingapossiblemilitaryresponse.
Subject:Russia:insearchofgeopoliticalglory-EuropeanGeostrategy[Sentearlier....stillrelevant]
http://www.europeangeostrategy.org/2015/11/russia-in-search-of-geopolitical-glory/
Russia:insearchofgeopoliticalglory
Postedin:ArticlesonSunday,8thNovember2015bySijbrendeJong,KarlijnJans,WillemOosterveld
Imagecredit:BrandtLukeZorn
WithitsrecentinterventioninSyria,manyclaimthatRussiascoredyetanothergeopoliticalcoup.With
thewarinUkrainestallingandCrimeafirmlyinRussianhands,PresidentVladimirPutinsurprisedfriend
andfoealikewithMoscowsfirstmilitaryinterventionoutsidetheformerSovietspaceindecades.This
showofforceintwotheatresisnotonlymeanttodemonstratethatRussiaisbackontheworldstage,
butalsothatitcanputotherpowersonthebackfootifitsodesires.Thus,PresidentPutinisoften
praisedforhistacticalnous,butwhetherinthelongrunhisventureswillalsopayofffromastrategic
pointofviewlooksdecidedlylesscertain.AlthoughPutinsobjectiveislikelytogarnerrespectforhis
countryinsomecircles,doingsobyseriouslyjeopardisinggoodrelationswithcountrieswestandsouth
ofitsborderandbeyond,hardlyamountstoasanegeopoliticalstrategy.
AssadornoAssad?Thatisthequestion
TostartwithSyria:here,Russiadecidedon30SeptembertointerveneattheinvitationofPresident
Basharal-Assad,inanattempttoshoreupAssadsincreasinglyfragilepositionvis-a-visthevariousrebel
forcesandtheIslamicState(ISIS).Thecomplexityoftheconflictthatnowincludesdirectinvolvement
onthepartofIranaswell,ledamonthlatertotalksinViennaaimedtokickstartaprocessthatshould
leadtoadiplomaticsolutiontotheconflict.However,whereasRussiahasbeentalkingaboutnew
electionsinSyria,leavingopentheroleofAssad,fewbelievethattheUS,theGulfcountriesandRussia
areabletobridgethegapbetweentheirpositions.AlthoughtheUShassofteneditsstanceonAssad,
sayingthathedoesnotneedtostepdownimmediately,itremainsclearthattheUSdoesnotseealong-
termfuturefortheAssadfamilyinSyria.TheGulfcountriesfortheirparthavebeenamongthemost
ferventsupportersoftherebelsfightingAssadandshowlittleenthusiasmfortheSyrianleadertoremain
inpower,evenifthiswouldbeinatransitionalrole.
Whatismore,ifrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWesthadnotalreadybeensouredenough,Moscows
Syrianinterventionmadethingsworse:first,byupsettingWashingtonsstrategytocreate,togetherwith
Turkey,asafezoneforrefugeesandsecondly,bycomplicatingthefightagainstISISbyconstrainingthe
freedomofactioninNorthernSyriaofAmericanandcoalitionjetfighters.
Russiasriskygamble
ButthesearenottheonlyfeathersRussiahasmanagedtoruffle.ForintryingtoshoreupPresident
Assad,RussiaiscausingSaudiArabia,whichstronglysupportstheSyrianopposition,tofightback.
Ratherthanresorttoweapons,SaudiArabiareliesonitsmostpotentsourceofpower,oil.Inanapparent
attempttoundermineRussiaspositioninEurope,SaudiArabiastartedsupplyingoiltoPolandin
October2015atasignificantdiscount.ThemovepromptedIgorSechin,theCEOofRussianstate-
ownedoilcompanyRosneft,toaccusetheSaudisofdumpingpractices.AlthoughRussiaforitspart
hasbeenbattlingtheSaudisforashareofthelucrativeAsianmarketalreadyforsometime,onecannot
helpbutfeelthatRiyadhsrecentmovehasatleastasmuchtodowithretaliationforRussiasincursions
intoSyria.InviewofhowRussiaisreelingfromeconomicsanctionsandacollapseofthepriceofoil,
SaudiArabiasaggressivepricediscountingcouldnotcomeataworsemomentforPutin.
RelationswithTurkeyarefaringarguablyevenworse.Sincelate2014,Putinhasbeenattemptingto
constructanaturalgaspipelinefromRussiatoTurkey,theso-calledTurkishStreampipeline.
Negotiationsprovedthorny,withbothpartiesfailingtoagreeonapricediscount.Underpressurein
Europeandforcedtomakenewfriends,Gazpromsnegotiatingpositionvis--visTurkeyareweak,
somethingwhichAnkaraseekstocleverlyexploit.Whenon27October2015RussiaandTurkeyhadstill
notmanagedtoagreeapricediscount,Turkishstate-ownedpipelinecompanyBOTASdecidedtofilea
caseforinternationalarbitrationagainstGazprom.Bynow,itincreasinglylooksasifRussiasSyria
adventureshavesqueezedthelastbitofsteamoutofTurkishStream.
RussiasinvolvementinSyriahasonlyservedtofurtherstrainanalreadytenserelationship.
RussiasincursionsintoTurkishairspaceinearlyOctoberpromptedtheireofNATOandTurkey.During
avisittoBrusselsinearlyOctober,TurkishPresidentErdoganissuedasternwarningtoMoscow,stating
itriskeddestroyingitsfriendshipwithAnkara,addingthatTurkeywouldnotstandbyidlywhenRussian
warplanesviolateitsairspace.Withaconvincingelectionvictoryunderhisbelt,itisexpectedthat
presidentErdoganwillupthestakesevenmoreinseekingtohaveAssadremovedfrompowerby
carvingoutspaceofitsowninSyriaalbeitmostlyattheexpenseoflocalKurdishforcesand
strategicspaceatthenegotiationtable.
ButtheimpactofRussiasinterventionisunlikelytoremainconfinedtotheMiddleEastitself.Russia
alsohasmillionsofSunniMuslimswithinitsborders.AndalthoughRussiasactionsarecheeredby
ShiiteMuslimsthroughouttheregion,theregionsSunnipopulationisscandalised.Indeed,itdidnottake
longforISandthelocalAl-QaedaaffiliateJabhatal-NusratocallonMuslimstowageaJihadagainst
RussiaandkillRussiansathome.Theannouncementbringsbacknastymemoriesoftheviolentdaysof
theChechenwars,whichsawnumeroushigh-profileterroristattacksthatreachedtheheartofMoscow.
SincethestartofRussiasintervention,reportshaveemergedthatISisonarecruitmentspreeinRussias
northernCaucasus,raisinglong-termconcernsthatbattle-hardenedJihadiswillstartmakingtheirway
backtoRussia.
Mastertactician,poorstrategist
Atfirstglance,thereislittlethatdeniestheobservationthatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinknowns
howtoputhisopponentsonabackfoot,whetheritistheEuropeans,theAmericansoreventheIranians
andtheGulfStates.Thisistoshowthatwhenitcomestotactics,Putinisamasterofthegame.He
showedthisinSyriatwoyearsago,inUkrainelastyear,andthistimearoundoncemoreinSyria.Inthe
longtermhowever,byprimarilyscoringtacticalpointsPutinrisksupsettingRussiasrelationswithmany
vitalneighboursandpartnerssuchasTurkeyandSaudiArabia,killinghigh-profileenergyprojectsand
underminingRussiaspositionintheEuropeanenergymarketintheprocess.Althoughtacticsmaywin
battles,strategiesultimatelywinthewar.Or,toadaptaquotefromone-timeUSenvoytoRussiaJohn
QuincyAdams,inseekinginternationalrespectabilityoneshouldnotgoabroadformonsterstopreserve.
ItisnotpossibletorepublishthisarticlewithouttheexpresspermissionofEuropeanGeostrategy.
Subject:RUBlackSeaFleetuselessifBosphorusclosedtoRUbyTurkey
TASS:KremlinhopesnocomplicationsinBlackSeastraitshipping
26.11.2015|19:29
00000
MoscowsaysithopesthatcomplicationsinrelationswithTurkeywillhavenoeffectonshippingacrossBlackSeastraits
governedbytheMontreuxConvention,KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaidonThursday,accordingtoRussiannews
agencyTASS.
KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovisconcernedaboutshippingacrossBlackSeastraits/Photofrompasmi.ru
"We,ofcourse,countontheinviolabilityoftherulesonthefreedomofshippingacrossBlackSeastraits,"Peskovtoldjournalists,TASS
wrote.
TherulesofseashippingacrosstheBosphorusandDardanellesStraitsintheBlackSeaaregovernedbythe1938MontreuxConvention,
theKremlinspokesmansaid.
TheMontreuxConventionallowsmerchantshipsfromtheallthecountriestopassfreelythroughtheseastraitsintimeofpeaceandwar.
However,itstipulatesadifferentregimefornavalshipsofBlackSeaandnon-BlackSeacountriestopassthroughthestraits.
GivenpreliminarynotificationoftheTurkishauthorities,BlackSeapowerscanhavetheirnavalshipsofanyclasspassthroughthestraits
inpeacetime,TASSwrote.
ReadmoreonUNIAN:http://www.unian.info/world/1195485-tass-kremlin-hopes-no-complications-in-black-sea-strait-shipping.html
Subject:ABaker'sDozenofNeglectedRussianStories-No.12
ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.12
PaulGoble
Staunton,November27--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandoftenstrangeastheRussian
Federationoftenappearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomarkthosewhichcant
bediscussedindetailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore.
Consequently,WindowsonEurasiawillpresentaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstoriesattheend
ofeachweek.Thisistheeleventhsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcompleteindeed,thisweekonceagain,
onecouldhaveputoutsuchalistingeveryday,butperhapsoneormoreofthesestorieswillproveofbroaderinterest.
1.MoreEnemies,MoreHonor.FascistdictatorBenitoMussolinibelievedthatthemoreenemieshehad,themorehonorhe
hadaswell.VladimirPutinappearstohaveadoptedthissloganaswell(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=565446B8A12D1).That
hasmanyconsequences,butoneisintriguing:therearefewerandfewercountriesRussiansareencouragedtotraveltobutfew
ofthoseareonestheyhaveanyinterestin(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5655E8DB5D086).
2.ZhirinovskyWantsArmenianstoInvadeTurkey.Asiftheworlddoesnthaveenoughproblems,flamboyantLDPRleader
VladimirZhirinovskysaysthatArmeniashouldinvadeTurkeytopunishAnkaraforthedowningoftheRussianwarplaneandto
recoverArmenianlands(en.a1plus.am/1223480.html).
3.MoscowWantsaSingleCossackOrganization.TheKremlinwantssomethingthathasneverexistedbefore:asingle
centralizedCossackorganizationorpowerverticalthatwouldpreventtheCossacksfromrevivingtheirregionalistand
independent-mindedtraditionsandensurethattheywouldsimplybeavailabletodowhatMoscowwants
(interfax.ru/russia/481510).
4.RussianDiplomatsUseSameSpeechatUNforEightYearsinaRow.Inaremarkabledisplayofconsistency,Russian
diplomatsattheUnitedNationsusedthesamespeechfortheeighthyearinarow,yetanotherindicationthatsomethingsnever
change(rbc.ru/politics/20/11/2015/564f31ac9a7947b624abc7fb).
5.DumaMovestoLegalizeBuyingVotes.Russianelectionsjusttookanotherstepawayfromgenuinedemocracy:theDuma
hastakenupameasurethatwilllegalizethebuyingofvotes,somethingthatmaygivethecash-richrulingpartyanevengreater
advantagebutonethatsuggestssomeofitsownadministrativemeasuresmaynolongerbeworkingaswellasitwouldlike
(newizv.ru/politics/2015-11-26/231193-podarok-vozle-urny.html).
6.PutininChocolate.AchocolatierinSt.Petersburghasmadealife-sizestatueofVladimirPutininchocolate.Nowordon
howlongthatstatuewilllastorwhatwillhappentothechocolate(qha.com.ua/ru/obschestvo/sladkii-putin-vo-ves-rost/151587/).
7.ReindeerHerdersGetTheirOwnWebsite.Russiasreindeerherders,whopracticeoneoftheoldestformsofeconomic
activity,nowareusingoneofthemostmoderntechniques:Theyhavetheirownwebsitetocommunicatewitheachotherandshare
ideas(urh-nao.ru/).
8.KrymnashaSourceofPrideinRussiaBecomesSlangforStealinginGerman.SlightlyoverhalfofallRussianssay
thattheslogan,Crimeaisours,isstillasourceofpridebutinGermany,thetermkriymnashhaspassedintoslangasaword
fortheft(slon.ru/posts/60130andecho.msk.ru/news/1663188-echo.html).
9.RegnumsKolerovKeepsReportingGorbachevsDeath.Tabloidjournalistsoftentrytoattractattentionbyreportingthings
thathaventhappenedoratleasthaventhappenedyet.ButfewcanmatchtherecordofModestKolerovofRegnumwho
keepsreportingthepassingofthefirstSovietpresidentdespiteclearevidencethatheisstillverymuchalive
(novayagazeta.ru/politics/70842.html).
10.PutinOperaOpensinVienna.AnoperainwhichVladimirPutinisthemaincharacterhasdebutedintheAustriancapital,but
theKremlinleadermaybelessthanpleasedbecausetheformeroligarchKhodorkovskyisamajorfigureinittoo
(style.rbc.ru/news/art/2015/11/20/22270/).
11.FSBNowTrackingEveryMullahinRussia.ForeverymullahandimaminRussia,thereisnowasupervisorfromthe
Russianspecialservices,aremarkablecommitmentofstateresourcesgiventhatthereareprobablymorethan20,000suchpeople
inthecountryatthepresenttime(nusra.info/6089/byvshij-muftij-tsdum-za-kazhdym-imamom-stoit-kurator-iz-spetssluzhb/).
12.FactsareWhateverCorrespondstoStateNeeds,MedynskySays.Russiascultureministersaysthatfactsmust
correspondtostateinterestsratherthantheotherwayaround(gazeta.ru/science/news/2015/11/19/n_7907945.shtml).Thus,itis
notsurprisingthatoneofeveryfiverectordissertationsisafakeandthatanyonewhoreleasesrealinformationsothatotherscan
trackwhatisgoingonwillbepilloriedbytheauthorities
(grani.ru/Society/Science/m.246089.htmlandregnum.ru/news/polit/2017644.html).
13.MorningorAfternoon?AnewRussiangovernmentprogramseemscertaintoreviveoneofRonaldReagansfavorite
jokesabouttheUSSR.Russianscannowgoonlinetofindoutwhentheirapartmentbuildingsareslatedforrenovation.Someare
notscheduledfortwoorthreedecades(apn.ru/publications/article34352.htm).Andconsequently,someofthemmaybeginasking
thekindofquestionReaganreferredtoduringMikhailGorbachevsfirstvisittotheUS.AyoungSovietmanwenttoan
automobiledealershiptobuyacar,Reagansaid,paidhismoneyandaskedwhenitwouldbeready.Thesalesmanlookedathis
bookandsaiditwouldbeSeptember15,2015.Thepurchaserthenaskedmorningorafternoon?Thesalesmanwasaghast.
Howcoulditmattergiventhatthedatewassofarinthefuture.Well,saidtheyoungman,theplumberhaspromisedtocomethat
morning.
From:GRS
Subject:Apparently,theGuardianhastheinsideword
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
CrimeansdescribelifeduringblackoutafterattacksfromUkraine
Hospitalsarestruggling,businesseshaveclosedandpublictransporthasgroundtoahalt.RFE/RLtalkstolocalsfacingprolonged
powercuts
Guardian
Crimeanresidentsarelearningtolivewiththawingfridges,pitch-darkhighwaysandshutteredschoolsaweek
afterUkrainianmiliantsbeganattackingthepowerlinesfeedingtheregion.[ED:Jeez....the
Guardianafter18monthsisnotsurethatRUtroopsevermovedintoUkraine,butafteraweek,
itseemscertainthatUAmilitantsbroughtdownthepowertowersfeedingCrimeaelectricity
notevenone'....alleged....'inthepiece]
AsRussianauthoritiesscrambletorestorepower,almost2millionpeoplehavebeenleftwithoutelectricity.
Despitethehumofgeneratorsfillingthestreets,mostbusinesseshavebeenforcedtoshutdownor
dramaticallyscalebacktheiroperations.
Majortownsarereceivingelectricityforafewhoursadaywhilesomevillageshavenopoweratall.
VladimirPutinhashitoutattheUkrainiangovernment,sayingwithouttheirtacitbackingthecut-offwouldnot
havebeenpossible.
RussiaisworkingtofinishacableacrosstheKerchstraittolinkCrimeatotheRussianmainland,butitwillnot
befinisheduntilthesecondhalfofDecember,andeventhenwillonlyprovidehalfofCrimeasenergyneeds.
Fornow,hundredsofgeneratorshavebeenshippedtotheregion.
Therearenomorecandlesandbatteriesinshops.Everythinghasbeenboughtup,saysYekaterina,a
residentofDzhankoyinnorthernCrimea.
Some150schoolsandnurserieshavebeencloseduntilfurthernoticeaspartofemergencymeasuresimposed
bythedefactoauthoritiesthatcametopowerwhenRussiaannexedthepeninsulainMarch2014.
TheCrimeanprimeminister,SergeiAksyonov,calledthedestructionoftheelectricitysupplyaterroristact.
NoonewillbringCrimeanstotheirknees,wewontallowfornegotiations,hesaid.Wewontletanyone
speaktousinthelanguageofblackmail.
Presently,back-uppowerreservesareprovingunabletoadequatelysupplyCrimeashospitals.
Thesituationcouldposeseriousriskstopeopleslives,saysOlgaSkripnik,aCrimeanhumanrights
campaigner.Manypeoplealsocomplainthatduetothelackofmobilenetworkstheyareunabletocall
ambulancesandfiredepartments.
Wereusedtoit
Itsbeenaturbulentfewmonthsfortheregionsresidents,whohavefoundthemselvesatthecentreofa
geopoliticalstorm,butmanyareputtingonabraveface.
Ithinktheproblemswillberesolved,everythingwillbealright,saysanewspapervendorinSimferopol,the
regionalcapital.
Wearenotworriedaboutanything,noteventherefrigerators,onewomaninSimferopolsaid.ItsOK.Well
getthroughit.Wereusedtoit.
Elderlyresidents,recallingthesecondworldwarandtheshortagesexperiencedbeforeandaftertheSoviet
breakupof1991,appeartobetakingtheblackoutinstride.
Whatistheretosaywhenthereisnoelectricity?saysValentina,anelderlywomansittingonabenchin
Simferopol.No,wait,wehaveelectricitytoday,shesuddenlyremembers.
Thatwasyesterday,oneofherfriendscorrectsfromthenextbench.
Todaywehavenowater,Valentinaexplains.
Howeverfrustrationismountingoverthetransportationproblemsbroughtonbytheblackouttramsno
longerrun,trafficlightsareswitchedoffandthestreetsandhighwaysareeerilydark.
Gasstationshavebeenshuttingdownoneaftertheother,creatinglonglinesoutsidethosestillopenforservice.
Idontunderstand,whyisntthereanyelectricity?asksadriver,queuinguptorefuelatapetrolstationin
Simferopol.WeweretoldthatCrimeaisready,thatithasstationswhichcanprovideelectricitytothewholeof
Crimea.Whyarenttheydoingitthen.Havetheyvanished?
Sofar,themajorityofCrimeansappeartoblametheirwoesonUkrainiannationalistsandCrimeanTatars,who
havebeenpreventingengineersfromrepairingthedamagedelectricitypylons.
ThenationalistsinmainlandUkraine,whichsuppliesapproximately70%ofCrimeasenergyneeds,saidthey
wouldallowtherepairworkonlyifRussiareleasedpoliticalprisonersareferencetoanumberofpeople
whohavebeenjailedonchargessupporterssayaretrumped-upandletCrimeanTatarleadersreturnto
theirhomes.
Inthemeantime,Crimeansarebracingforweeksofdisruptionsandshortages.
TheseniorofficialamongtheRussianauthoritieswhocontrolCrimea,SergeiAksyonov,saiditmighttakehis
governmentanentiremonthtorestoreelectricitytothepeninsula.
Ifyouseizeaterritory,saidDmitry,aresidentofthesouthernportcityofFeodosia,thenpleasebekind
enoughtosupplyelectricity.

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 11/23/201503:17:48PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes23November2015
Attachments: IN23Nov15.doc
InternetNotes23November2015
KiselevsVestiNedelionObamasultimatumattheAPECsummit(PutinsquietfuryoverA321)
VladimirFrolovonRussiaandAssad
USDefenseSecretarysaysWashingtonandMoscowshouldfighttogetheragainstISIS
PutininTehran
KudrinsCivicForum(KGI)eventreportedlybackedbytheKremlin
PearsonandDowJonesselltheirVedomostistakestoKudryavtsyev
Fromyesterdaysnotes:
[Lavrov,inaradiointerview,saidthattheUShadchangeditspositionregardingthefateofAssad.ButObama,speakingattheManilaAPEC
summit,saidthatRussiaandIranshouldmakeachoicebetweensupportingAssadandmaintainingtheterritorialintegrityofSyria.Avoidinga
divisionofSyriawaspossible,accordingtoObama,onlyifanewgovernmentwasformed.ISIScouldnotbetotallydestroyedaslongasAssad
remainedinpower.ObamaallowedthatitmaytakeseveralmonthsbeforeRussiaandIranacknowledgedthis.]
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2689774
PremierMedvedevattendedtheManilasummitmeeting,butObamarepeatedlyreferredtoMr.PutinandsomeofObamas
statementsatthesummitwerefundamentallydifferentfromwhathehadsaidpreviously.ObamacalledRussiaaconstructive
partner,forinstance,andsaidhewelcomedRussianparticipationinastruggleagainstISIS.Butthenextday,Obamadeliveredan
ultimatumtoMoscow:RussiahadtochoosebetweenpreservingAssadinpowerorpreservingtheSyrianstate.So
understandingjustwhattheAmericanpresidentwantsisnoteasy.Meanwhile,theUSiscreatinganewtrademegablockinthe
Trans-PacificPartnershipbuthasnotinvitedRussiaorChinatojoin,soinsteadofAsia-Pacificeconomiccooperation,theresult
maybeeconomicdiscordExpertsatthesummit,however,weresurethatRussianeconomicgrowthwouldresumesoon
AnothersegmentoftheprogramwasonPutinsmeetingwithBortnikovduringwhichBortnikovdeclaredthatA321was
destroyedbyabomb:http://vesti7.ru/news?id=48725KiselevsaysthatPutinwasinstateofquietfurywhenBortnikov
deliveredthereportPutinssubsequentpledgetosearchtheworldovertofindandpunishthoseresponsibleisdescribedby
Kiselevasthemostenergeticinhispresidentialcareer.TherewasbitternessandpainandwillinPuitnswordsthe
terroristswouldbefoundanddestroyed,andforrightnow,amassiveretaliatorystrikedelivered.Theattackcommencedthenext
day(Comment:TheVestiNedeliprogramthisweekincludedalongsegmentdetailingtheRussianstrikes,howmany
siteswerehit,howmanybombsweredroppedormissileslaunched,whatplaneswereused,wheretheywerebased,
andhoweffectivethestrikeshadbeencomparedwiththoseoftheUS-ledcoalition.TheUS/Westernsideand
RussianshavemirroredeachothertosomedegreetheUSclaimsthatRussiaisreallynotinterestedinattacking
ISISasmuchasdefendingAssad,whiletheRussianinformationwarhasclaimedthattheUSisnotsomuch
interestedindestroyingISIS[withabitonhowineffectivethecoalitionairstrikeshavebeen],asbringingdown
Assad)
http://slon.ru/posts/60024?utm_source=slon.ru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=saturday
AttheAPECsummit,Obamade-factodemandedthatRussiademonstrateitsseriousnessaboutfightingISISbyhaltingmilitary
supportfortheAssadregime(Comment:AndyoucouldjustaseasilysaythattheUS/EUsideshoulddemonstratesome
seriousnessaboutISISbydropping,atleastfornow,demandsaboutAssadleavingandgetonwithtakingmeasuresto
defendtheircountriesagainstISIS.Bothsidesseemmoreinterestedinsavingfaceandsendingmessagesthan
indealingwiththerealthreat)itseithersaveAssadorsaveSyria(Comment:Waitaminutejustwhohasbeen
spurringonupheavalviaregimechangeintheMiddleEast?Howhasthatworkedoutforus?Havethesepeople
learnednothing?MaybeitstoolatetomaintainSyriaasastate,Idontknow.AndmaybeAssadistooweaktostay
atthispoint,butwhatgotustothischaoticpoint?ThatsnotRussiasdoing.Doanyofthesepeoplereallyknow
enoughabouttheMiddleEastorSyriatomakeseriouslyinformeddecisionsaboutthatcountrysfatewhenthey
talkabouttheSyrianpeople,justwhodotheyhaveinmind?Syria,likeIraq,isnotreallyanationstate.Wecant
bomb,blastandoccupytheMiddleEastforeverthemostfrighteningterroristthreatisonourhomesoil.The
primaryfocusshouldbeondefensivemeasures.BombinghelloutofSyriaisactuallysomethingofadistraction,when
therealquestionisaboutwhethersovereignnationstatesshouldgoonexisting.Oristheborderlessutopiaproject
thetoppriority?[Forwhomitmightbeatoppriorityisanotherquestion]Forhispart,Putinsgottodecidewhether
Russiaisgoingtobeanationstateorarumpempiresure,retaliate,butthelongtermthreattoRussiaisdomestic
aswell)Nevertheless,WashingtonispreparedformilitarycooperationiftheaimoftheRussianoperationchanges,which,the
Americansbelieve,ispossibleafterthedestructionofA321(Comment:Again,amirroroftheRussianposition:Moscow
thinkscooperationispossibleifAmerican/EUaimschange.TheKremlinhadhopesforthataftertheParisattacks.
Doeseithersideunderstandthattheotherrepresentsadistortedmirrorimageofitself?).TheAmericanswould
considertheRussianroleconstructiveintalkswherebothWashingtonandMoscowagreeaboutonefundamentalquestion
Assadsfuturerole.InManila,Obamasetstrictlimitsforadecision:AssadcannotaspiretoaroleinanewadministrationinSyria
ashehaslostlegitimacyandmustleavebytheendofatransitionalperiod.AcampaignagainstISIScansucceedifthereisa
ceasefirebetweentheSyrianarmyandtheopposition.ThenthearmedoppositioncantakepartinoperationsagainstISIS.
FrancespriorityiscombatingISISPariscantwaitforaresolutionoftheSyrianpoliticalcrisis.ThatswhyFranceismore
preparedorRussiasparticipationinwhatHollandehascalledabigcoalition.Francesprospectsforamilitarycampaignare
limiteditneedsthatkindofcoalition.FranceisreadytonormalizerelationswithRussiaintheinterestofajointstruggleagainst
ISIS.Thus,ParisinvokedtheLisbonagreementonEUstatescomingtotheaidofamemberthathadbeenattacked.Russiais
muchmorelikelytojoinanEUcoalitionthanaNATO-ledone(Comment:Thatpointcameupinyesterdaysnotes).
FrancespositioncreatesanopeningforMoscowtousetocauseasplitbetweenParis,Washington,andBerlininhopesof
weakeningpressureasaresultoftheUkrainiansituation,thendiscussingEuropeansecurityonabasisthatisadvantageousto
Russia.Itsastrongtemptation.PutinhasalreadyhitthatnoteincallingFrancebutnottheUSanallyinacoalitionagainst
ISIS.Buttomakethatgambitwork,MoscowneedsasolutiontotheAssadquestionthatisacceptabletoParis.
MoscowhasmadesomecorrectionstoitsstrategyinSyria.FollowingtheacknowledgementthatA321wasdestroyedby
terrorists,MoscowsairstrikeshavebeenprimarilyagainstISIS,includingoilinfrastructureandthecoordinatesfortheattacks
camefromintelligenceprovidedbytheSyrianopposition(thoughwearentsureaboutwhichoppositionprovidedthe
information).MoscowispreparedtocooperatewiththeWesterncoalitionundertheconditionthatthecoalitionacknowledges
Syriansovereignty.ThatcanbedonebyeitheraUNSecurityCouncilresolutionauthorizingmilitaryactioninSyria,orbymutual
acknowledgementbytheregimeinDamascusandthecoalition.Butthedevilisinthedetailsthatis,Assad.
MoscowseesaUNresolutionasameansoflegitimizingAssadasapartnerinthestrugglewithISIS.TheRussiandraftresolution
doesjustthat,acknowledgingtheSyrianarmyasplayingthemainroleinthestrugglewithISIS.TheRussiandraftresolutionwas
anunpleasantsurpriseforFrance,whichhasprepareditsowndraftresolution(Seeyesterdaysnotes),whichdidnotincludearole
fortheSyrianpresident.HowmuchdoesaninterestinmaintainingAssadexceedtheRussianinterestinrelationswiththeWest?
TheAmericanssaytheyseeacertainflexibilityinMoscowspositionthatis,acertainspacebetweenTehranandMoscow(See
yesterdaysnotes).MoscowhassupposedlytoldArableadersthatitwilllimitTehransinfluenceifthePersianGulfcountriesexert
influenceontheSyrianoppositionandhelpresolvetheconflict.Thisweek,AssadannouncedthedisbandingoftheNational
DefenseForceslocalmilitiasfinancedandtrainedbyIran,unitsnotsubordinatedtotheSyrianarmy.
Thusfar,MoscowandTehranpubliclyagreethatAssadshouldremaininplaceduringatransitionalperiodandshouldbeable
totakepartinnewelections.ButMoscowspositionisshifting:thenewformulationishisfateshouldbedecidedbytheSyrian
people.ThereinliesthedistancebetweenMoscowandTehran.
MoscowhasbeenforcedtoconsiderthepositionofSaudiArabiaandTurkeybotharepreparedtosupportaceasefireunder
theconditionthatAssadstaysonlyforasetperiod,thenmustleave.TheSaudiForeignMinistryhasmadeitclearthatifthatdoes
nothappen,theSaudiswillkeepupsupportfortheSyrianoppositionuntilAssadisremovedbyforce.Thatwouldbeaclearpath
toanAfghanscenario,oneMoscowmustavoidatallcosts.TherewillbenoAssadmilitaryvictoryovertheoppositionthat
becameobvioustoMoscowwiththefirstresultsofthemilitaryoperationinSyria.
ThereisareadysolutiontotheAssadquestionMoscowshouldgethimtomakeavoluntaryannouncementthathewillnot
takepartinfutureelections,willtransferpowertoatransitionalgovernmentbyMayofnextyear,andthattherewillbeanew
administrationinSyriafollowingparliamentaryandpresidentialelections.Thiswouldopenupthepossibilityofunificationwiththe
SyrianoppositionagainstISIS.ButAssadsrecentstatementthathewilltakepartinnewelectionsdoesnotinspireasenseof
optimismhisstatementscontradictaViennaagreementonbeginningnegotiationswiththeoppositionbythebeginningofJanuary.
Assad,however,personallymatterslessandlessSyriaisrepresentedbyRussia.AslongasMoscowinsiststhatnoresolutionof
thecrisiscantakeplacewithoutAssadsparticipation,therewill,infact,benosuchresolution.TheKremlinunderstandsthisThe
KremlinwillholdontoitsAssadtrumpcardandwillplayitwhenitreceivessomethingsignificantinexchangetheonlyproblem
isthatthepriceMoscowwantsforAssadmaybetoohighforParisandWashingtontoaccept.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/hagel-russia-us-must-fight-islamic-state-together/550446.html
FormerU.S.DefenseSecretaryChuckHagelcalledforincludingRussiainaconsolidatedglobalbattleagainstIslamicState,andsuggestedputting
asidetheinevitabledisputesbetweenWashingtonandMoscowforthesakeofthefightagainstterrorism.
HageldismissedthedisagreementsbetweentheWestandRussiaaboutSyria'sPresidentBasharAssadassecondary,andsaidoperationsinSyria
shouldbefocusedondefeatingIslamicState,accordingtoaninterviewSundaywithCNN.
Assadisaverybadguy,Hagelsaid.Therearebadguysallovertheworld.ButIthinkit'sprettyclearthatISISrepresentstherealthreattoour
country,totheworld.
HecalledforbringingtogethervariouscountriesincludingtraditionalopponentsoradversariesoftheUnitedStatestofighttheIslamicState.
TheRussianshavegottobepartofthis,Hagelsaid.IthinktheIranianshavetobepartofit.
Itisn'tanalliance,headded.It'slet'sseizeonthecommoninterest.Whatisthecommonthreattoallthosecountries?What'sourcommon
interesthere?ISIS.Andyoubuildaroundthat.Idon'tthinkyou'regoingtofindaresolutiontoAssaduntilyoufigureouthowyou'regoingtodeal
withISIS.
WatchtheinterviewonCNNwebsite.
RelationsbetweenMoscowandtheWestturnedfetidoverRussia'sannexationofCrimeafromUkrainelastyearandRussia'ssupportforseparatist
insurgentsineasternUkraine.
ButfollowingthedowningofaRussianpassengerplaneoverEgyptonOct.31,andaseriesofterroristattacksinParisonNov.13IslamicState
hasclaimedresponsibilityforbothterroractsMoscowhastoneddownitsadamantlyanti-Westernrhetoricofthepastyear,andcalledforunity
infightingIslamicState.
Russia'sairstrikesinSyriawerewidelyseenasanattempttodistractattentionfromitsmeddlinginUkraineandtoreassertitselfasamajor
internationalplayerwhilesupportingtheAssadregime,butcallsforajointfightagainstterrorismhavebeenpartofRussianPresidentVladimir
Putin'sstancesincelongbeforetheUkrainiancrisis.
HageldidnotmentionUkraine,butsuggestedthatdifferencesbetweentheUnitedStatesanditsopponents,suchasRussia,couldbeputonthe
backburnerinthefaceofaformidablecommonenemy.
We'regonnahavedifferenceswithIranforyearsandyears,withRussiaforyears,butyoucan'tletthosedifferencesdictate,oryoucan'tbecome
captivetothedifferences,HageltoldCNN.Let'scenteronthecorethreat,thecommonthreat,buildoutfromthere.
Hagelresignedasdefensesecretarylastyear,followingdisagreementswithWhiteHouseadministrationofficialsoverSyrianpolicy.
IslamicStateisaterroristorganizationbannedinRussia.
PutininTehran
PutinmetwiththeAyatollahKhamenipriortotheopeningoftheGasExportingCountriesForum(GECF):
http://tass.ru/en/society/838571
Heresmore:http://tass.ru/en/world/838608
TEHRAN,November23/TASS/.AnydecisiononSyriashouldbemadewithconsentofitspeopleandrulers,IransSupremeLeaderAyatollahAli
KhameneitoldRussianPresidentVladimirPutininTehranonMonday.
"AnydecisiononSyriashouldbeimplementedwiththeconsentoftheSyrianpeopleandrulers.TheUnitedStateshasnorighttoignorethevoice
oftheSyrianpeople,"Khameneispressservicequotedhimassaying.
HeemphasizedthatSyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadwasalegitimatelyelectedSyrianpresidentandthatSyriasfuturepresidentshouldbeelected
bythemajorityofSyriansatthegeneralelectionsinwhichallthecitizenswouldtakepartirrespectiveofvariouspoliticalviews,ethnicityor
religiousapprehension.
AyatollahAliKhameneidescribedUSsupportforandfinancialaidtoterroristgroupsinSyriaas"dishonestdiplomacy."
"Apartfromthenuclearproblem,wearenotgoingtoholdbilateralnegotiationswiththeAmericansonanyissues,includingtheSyriancrisis,"
Khameneistressed.HeaddedthesolutionoftheSyrianproblemwasveryimportantforthesituationinthewholeregion.Ifterroristswhoare
committingcrimesinSyriaarenoteliminated,theywillspreadtheirdeadlyactivitiestoCentralAsiaandotherregions,AyatollahAliKhameneisaid.
KhameneialsopointedoutthatIranhighlyassessesRussiasroleinresolvingregionalproblems.
"DuringthemeetingwithRussiasPutin,theIraniansupremeleadersupportedfurtherexpansionofbilateral,regionalandinternationalinteraction
betweentwocountries,"theIranianpresidentialpressservicesaid.ThesupremeleaderhighlyassessedMoscowsroleinthesettlingtheregional
problems,includingtheSyriancrisis,thestatementsaid.
AliKhameneiurgedforcloserIranian-RussianrelationsinordertocounteracttheUSpolicy."TheAmericanshavealong-termplotandaretrying
todominateSyriaandthenthewholeregion,"thepresidentsaid."Thisisathreattoallcountries,especiallyRussiaandIran."
"TheUSarealwaysstrivingtopushoutthecompetitors,"Khameneisaid."UnwillingnesstoacceptRussiasgrowinginfluenceintheregionandin
theinternationalarenaaffectsalltheUSdecisionsandactionsconcerningSyrianquestion."
Accordingtothesupremeleader,theUSstrivestodominateintheSyrianquestioninordertobroadentheirinfluenceintheWesternAsianregion,
whichthreatenstheRussianandIranianpeoples.
ThisisfromanRBCDailypieceon18November:TheKremlinreportedlywasbackingtheThirdRussianCivicForum,anevent
heldbyKGI,despitetheparticipationofforeignagentNGOsandfallenexpertslikeSergeyGuriyev.TheRBCreportcame
outpriortotheevent,whichwasheldon20-21NovemberatMoscowsInternationalTradeCenter.RBCsaidthatKudrinmet
withPutinlastsummertodiscusstheforumandrequestthattheKremlinAdministrationsupportit.Theproposalwasaddressed
toFirstDeputyHeadoftheKremlinAdministrationVyacheslavVolodin,whooverseesthePAdomesticpoliticsbranch.RBCs
sourcessaidthatthePAwouldsupporttheforum.OnesourcetoldRBCthatcooperatingwithNGOsandcivilsocietywasa
priorityforthePA.
Navalniysubsequentlytweetedthatthewholeepisodewasfunnyandwascharacteristicofvlastsrelationshipwithsociety
KudrinrepliedthatKGIhadnotaskedthePAtoagreetotheforum,buttoagreetoallowfederalofficialstotakepart:
http://twitter.com/navalny/status/667984032186114048
AlexeyNavalnyVerifiedaccount@navalny
.
12:32AM-21Nov2015
1.
1. @Aleksei_KudrinNov21
@navalny,,.
http://akudrin.ru/news/vopros-ob-obraschenii-v-administratsiyu-prezidenta-rossii
Heresanewsrureportontheevent:http://newsru.com/russia/21nov2015/kudrin1.html
Attheforum,Kudrinstatedthathewasnotinterestedinpartybuildingatthistime,butinbuildingcivilsocietyhepointedto
limitationsonpoliticallifeinRussiaandconcentratedoneconomicquestions.Kudrinadded,however,thathewelcomedall
thosewhodidtakepartinpartybuildingandsaidthatwithoutpoliticalcompetition,Russiacouldnotgoonasamodernstate
Pointingtofallingrealincomes,Kudrinsaidthatsocialpolicies,inspiteoflargeexpenditures,wouldnotbeabletocopewiththe
challengesthecountrywasfacingSanctionshavecomplicatedtheeconomicsituationhesaidtheyhadcostRussia1.5%of
GDPandaccountedforhalfoftherublesdecline(theotherhalfbeingaresultoflowoilprices)Kudrindescribedthe
governmentresponsetothecrisisasinadequatebutatthesametime,hesaidthatvlasthadspentreserveseffectively.Kudrin
saidthatreserveshadbeenspenttoclosebudgetdeficitsthemoneyhadgonetoeducation,healthcare,defense,andsocial
programsKudrinagaincalledforstructuralreforms
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/pearson-and-dow-jones-sell-russias-vedomosti-
newspaper/550117.html
PearsonandDowJoneshaveagreedtoselltheirstakesinRussia'sVedomostinewspapertoalocalbusinessman,transferringoneofthecountry's
mostrespectedindependentbusinessdailiesintoRussianhandsforthefirsttime.
DemyanKudryavtsev,anInternetentrepreneurandformermediamanager,confirmedtoTheMoscowTimeshehadboughtthe33percentstakes
ownedbytheBritishandU.S.mediagroups.
KudryavtsevalreadyownedtheremainingthirdofVedomostiafterbuyingitfromFinland'sSanomaearlierthisyearmeaningthatthepaperhas
gonefromafullyforeign-tofullyRussian-ownednewspaperinsomesixmonths.
ThechangecomesasRussia'smedialandscapeisturnedupsidedownbylegislationbarringforeignersfromowningmorethan20percentofshares
inRussianmediafirms.ThelawwaspassedlastyearattheheightoftensionsovertheUkrainecrisisandcomesintoforceonJan.1,2016.Seenby
manyasawaytoincreasetheKremlin'scontrolofinformation,thelawhasseenafloodofforeignpublicationsandtelevisionnetworks,including
investigativeonessuchasForbesmagazine,transferredtolocalhands.
KudryavtsevsaidFridayhedidnotseekthedeal,andwouldratherhaveremainedpartneredwithTheFinancialTimesandTheWallStreetJournal,
thenewspapersownedbyPearsonandDowJones.HesaidtherewouldbenoimmediatechangestoVedomosti'sstaff,andthatheintendsto
respectthepaper'seditorialindependence.
Vedomostiwasfoundedin1999asajointventurebetweentheFT,theWSJandIndependentMedia,apublishinghouseownedbyDutchmedia
entrepreneurDerkSauer.Thenewspaper'sbarbedandoftenanti-KremlineditorialshavenotstoppeditbecominginfluentialamongRussia'selite.
ThepurchasecementsKudryavtsevasamajorplayeronRussia'smediascene.Kudryavtsev,aformerCEOofRussianpublishinghouse
Kommersant,boughtTheMoscowTimes,NationalGeographicandWomen'sandMen'sHealth,amongothertitles,fromSanomaearlierthisyear.
Kudryavtsevsaidthevalueofthedeal,whichisexpectedtocloselaterthisyear,issubjecttoanon-disclosureagreement.
DowJonesandPearsonsaidinajointstatementFridayafternoon:ThequalityandintegrityoftheVedomostieditorialteamisoutstandingand
boththeFTandtheWSJplantocontinuelicensingcontenttoVedomostitoprovidehigh-quality,internationalnewstoreadersinRussia."
Thisemailisfreefromvirusesandmalwarebecauseavast!Antivirusprotectionisactive.
Senttime: 11/23/201503:17:48PM
PutininTehran
Fromyesterdaysnotes:
[Lavrov,inaradiointerview,saidthattheUShadchangeditspositionregardingthefateofAssad.ButObama,speakingattheManilaAPEC
summit,saidthatRussiaandIranshouldmakeachoicebetweensupportingAssadandmaintainingtheterritorialintegrityofSyria.Avoidinga
divisionofSyriawaspossible,accordingtoObama,onlyifanewgovernmentwasformed.ISIScouldnotbetotallydestroyedaslongasAssad
remainedinpower.ObamaallowedthatitmaytakeseveralmonthsbeforeRussiaandIranacknowledgedthis.]
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2689774
PremierMedvedevattendedtheManilasummitmeeting,butObamarepeatedlyreferredtoMr.PutinandsomeofObamas
statementsatthesummitwerefundamentallydifferentfromwhathehadsaidpreviously.ObamacalledRussiaaconstructive
partner,forinstance,andsaidhewelcomedRussianparticipationinastruggleagainstISIS.Butthenextday,Obamadeliveredan
ultimatumtoMoscow:RussiahadtochoosebetweenpreservingAssadinpowerorpreservingtheSyrianstate.So
understandingjustwhattheAmericanpresidentwantsisnoteasy.Meanwhile,theUSiscreatinganewtrademegablockinthe
Trans-PacificPartnershipbuthasnotinvitedRussiaorChinatojoin,soinsteadofAsia-Pacificeconomiccooperation,theresult
maybeeconomicdiscordExpertsatthesummit,however,weresurethatRussianeconomicgrowthwouldresumesoon
AnothersegmentoftheprogramwasonPutinsmeetingwithBortnikovduringwhichBortnikovdeclaredthatA321was
destroyedbyabomb:http://vesti7.ru/news?id=48725KiselevsaysthatPutinwasinstateofquietfurywhenBortnikov
deliveredthereportPutinssubsequentpledgetosearchtheworldovertofindandpunishthoseresponsibleisdescribedby
Kiselevasthemostenergeticinhispresidentialcareer.TherewasbitternessandpainandwillinPuitnswordsthe
terroristswouldbefoundanddestroyed,andforrightnow,amassiveretaliatorystrikedelivered.Theattackcommencedthenext
day(Comment:TheVestiNedeliprogramthisweekincludedalongsegmentdetailingtheRussianstrikes,howmany
siteswerehit,howmanybombsweredroppedormissileslaunched,whatplaneswereused,wheretheywerebased,
andhoweffectivethestrikeshadbeencomparedwiththoseoftheUS-ledcoalition.TheUS/Westernsideand
RussianshavemirroredeachothertosomedegreetheUSclaimsthatRussiaisreallynotinterestedinattacking
ISISasmuchasdefendingAssad,whiletheRussianinformationwarhasclaimedthattheUSisnotsomuch
interestedindestroyingISIS[withabitonhowineffectivethecoalitionairstrikeshavebeen],asbringingdown
Assad)
http://slon.ru/posts/60024?utm_source=slon.ru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=saturday
AttheAPECsummit,Obamade-factodemandedthatRussiademonstrateitsseriousnessaboutfightingISISbyhaltingmilitary
supportfortheAssadregime(Comment:AndyoucouldjustaseasilysaythattheUS/EUsideshoulddemonstratesome
seriousnessaboutISISbydropping,atleastfornow,demandsaboutAssadleavingandgetonwithtakingmeasuresto
defendtheircountriesagainstISIS.Bothsidesseemmoreinterestedinsavingfaceandsendingmessagesthan
indealingwiththerealthreat)itseithersaveAssadorsaveSyria(Comment:Waitaminutejustwhohasbeen
spurringonupheavalviaregimechangeintheMiddleEast?Howhasthatworkedoutforus?Havethesepeople
learnednothing?MaybeitstoolatetomaintainSyriaasastate,Idontknow.AndmaybeAssadistooweaktostay
atthispoint,butwhatgotustothischaoticpoint?ThatsnotRussiasdoing.Doanyofthesepeoplereallyknow
enoughabouttheMiddleEastorSyriatomakeseriouslyinformeddecisionsaboutthatcountrysfatewhenthey
talkabouttheSyrianpeople,justwhodotheyhaveinmind?Syria,likeIraq,isnotreallyanationstate.Wecant
bomb,blastandoccupytheMiddleEastforeverthemostfrighteningterroristthreatisonourhomesoil.The
primaryfocusshouldbeondefensivemeasures.BombinghelloutofSyriaisactuallysomethingofadistraction,when
therealquestionisaboutwhethersovereignnationstatesshouldgoonexisting.Oristheborderlessutopiaproject
thetoppriority?[Forwhomitmightbeatoppriorityisanotherquestion]Forhispart,Putinsgottodecidewhether
Russiaisgoingtobeanationstateorarumpempiresure,retaliate,butthelongtermthreattoRussiaisdomestic
aswell)Nevertheless,WashingtonispreparedformilitarycooperationiftheaimoftheRussianoperationchanges,which,the
Americansbelieve,ispossibleafterthedestructionofA321(Comment:Again,amirroroftheRussianposition:Moscow
thinkscooperationispossibleifAmerican/EUaimschange.TheKremlinhadhopesforthataftertheParisattacks.
Doeseithersideunderstandthattheotherrepresentsadistortedmirrorimageofitself?).TheAmericanswould
considertheRussianroleconstructiveintalkswherebothWashingtonandMoscowagreeaboutonefundamentalquestion
Assadsfuturerole.InManila,Obamasetstrictlimitsforadecision:AssadcannotaspiretoaroleinanewadministrationinSyria
ashehaslostlegitimacyandmustleavebytheendofatransitionalperiod.AcampaignagainstISIScansucceedifthereisa
ceasefirebetweentheSyrianarmyandtheopposition.ThenthearmedoppositioncantakepartinoperationsagainstISIS.
FrancespriorityiscombatingISISPariscantwaitforaresolutionoftheSyrianpoliticalcrisis.ThatswhyFranceismore
preparedorRussiasparticipationinwhatHollandehascalledabigcoalition.Francesprospectsforamilitarycampaignare
limiteditneedsthatkindofcoalition.FranceisreadytonormalizerelationswithRussiaintheinterestofajointstruggleagainst
ISIS.Thus,ParisinvokedtheLisbonagreementonEUstatescomingtotheaidofamemberthathadbeenattacked.Russiais
muchmorelikelytojoinanEUcoalitionthanaNATO-ledone(Comment:Thatpointcameupinyesterdaysnotes).
FrancespositioncreatesanopeningforMoscowtousetocauseasplitbetweenParis,Washington,andBerlininhopesof
weakeningpressureasaresultoftheUkrainiansituation,thendiscussingEuropeansecurityonabasisthatisadvantageousto
Russia.Itsastrongtemptation.PutinhasalreadyhitthatnoteincallingFrancebutnottheUSanallyinacoalitionagainst
ISIS.Buttomakethatgambitwork,MoscowneedsasolutiontotheAssadquestionthatisacceptabletoParis.
MoscowhasmadesomecorrectionstoitsstrategyinSyria.FollowingtheacknowledgementthatA321wasdestroyedby
terrorists,MoscowsairstrikeshavebeenprimarilyagainstISIS,includingoilinfrastructureandthecoordinatesfortheattacks
camefromintelligenceprovidedbytheSyrianopposition(thoughwearentsureaboutwhichoppositionprovidedthe
information).MoscowispreparedtocooperatewiththeWesterncoalitionundertheconditionthatthecoalitionacknowledges
Syriansovereignty.ThatcanbedonebyeitheraUNSecurityCouncilresolutionauthorizingmilitaryactioninSyria,orbymutual
acknowledgementbytheregimeinDamascusandthecoalition.Butthedevilisinthedetailsthatis,Assad.
MoscowseesaUNresolutionasameansoflegitimizingAssadasapartnerinthestrugglewithISIS.TheRussiandraftresolution
doesjustthat,acknowledgingtheSyrianarmyasplayingthemainroleinthestrugglewithISIS.TheRussiandraftresolutionwas
anunpleasantsurpriseforFrance,whichhasprepareditsowndraftresolution(Seeyesterdaysnotes),whichdidnotincludearole
fortheSyrianpresident.HowmuchdoesaninterestinmaintainingAssadexceedtheRussianinterestinrelationswiththeWest?
TheAmericanssaytheyseeacertainflexibilityinMoscowspositionthatis,acertainspacebetweenTehranandMoscow(See
yesterdaysnotes).MoscowhassupposedlytoldArableadersthatitwilllimitTehransinfluenceifthePersianGulfcountriesexert
influenceontheSyrianoppositionandhelpresolvetheconflict.Thisweek,AssadannouncedthedisbandingoftheNational
DefenseForceslocalmilitiasfinancedandtrainedbyIran,unitsnotsubordinatedtotheSyrianarmy.
Thusfar,MoscowandTehranpubliclyagreethatAssadshouldremaininplaceduringatransitionalperiodandshouldbeable
totakepartinnewelections.ButMoscowspositionisshifting:thenewformulationishisfateshouldbedecidedbytheSyrian
people.ThereinliesthedistancebetweenMoscowandTehran.
MoscowhasbeenforcedtoconsiderthepositionofSaudiArabiaandTurkeybotharepreparedtosupportaceasefireunder
theconditionthatAssadstaysonlyforasetperiod,thenmustleave.TheSaudiForeignMinistryhasmadeitclearthatifthatdoes
nothappen,theSaudiswillkeepupsupportfortheSyrianoppositionuntilAssadisremovedbyforce.Thatwouldbeaclearpath
toanAfghanscenario,oneMoscowmustavoidatallcosts.TherewillbenoAssadmilitaryvictoryovertheoppositionthat
becameobvioustoMoscowwiththefirstresultsofthemilitaryoperationinSyria.
ThereisareadysolutiontotheAssadquestionMoscowshouldgethimtomakeavoluntaryannouncementthathewillnot
takepartinfutureelections,willtransferpowertoatransitionalgovernmentbyMayofnextyear,andthattherewillbeanew
administrationinSyriafollowingparliamentaryandpresidentialelections.Thiswouldopenupthepossibilityofunificationwiththe
SyrianoppositionagainstISIS.ButAssadsrecentstatementthathewilltakepartinnewelectionsdoesnotinspireasenseof
optimismhisstatementscontradictaViennaagreementonbeginningnegotiationswiththeoppositionbythebeginningofJanuary.
Assad,however,personallymatterslessandlessSyriaisrepresentedbyRussia.AslongasMoscowinsiststhatnoresolutionof
thecrisiscantakeplacewithoutAssadsparticipation,therewill,infact,benosuchresolution.TheKremlinunderstandsthisThe
KremlinwillholdontoitsAssadtrumpcardandwillplayitwhenitreceivessomethingsignificantinexchangetheonlyproblem
isthatthepriceMoscowwantsforAssadmaybetoohighforParisandWashingtontoaccept.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/hagel-russia-us-must-fight-islamic-state-together/550446.html
FormerU.S.DefenseSecretaryChuckHagelcalledforincludingRussiainaconsolidatedglobalbattleagainstIslamicState,andsuggestedputting
asidetheinevitabledisputesbetweenWashingtonandMoscowforthesakeofthefightagainstterrorism.
HageldismissedthedisagreementsbetweentheWestandRussiaaboutSyria'sPresidentBasharAssadassecondary,andsaidoperationsinSyria
shouldbefocusedondefeatingIslamicState,accordingtoaninterviewSundaywithCNN.
Assadisaverybadguy,Hagelsaid.Therearebadguysallovertheworld.ButIthinkit'sprettyclearthatISISrepresentstherealthreattoour
country,totheworld.
HecalledforbringingtogethervariouscountriesincludingtraditionalopponentsoradversariesoftheUnitedStatestofighttheIslamicState.
TheRussianshavegottobepartofthis,Hagelsaid.IthinktheIranianshavetobepartofit.
Itisn'tanalliance,headded.It'slet'sseizeonthecommoninterest.Whatisthecommonthreattoallthosecountries?What'sourcommon
interesthere?ISIS.Andyoubuildaroundthat.Idon'tthinkyou'regoingtofindaresolutiontoAssaduntilyoufigureouthowyou'regoingtodeal
withISIS.
WatchtheinterviewonCNNwebsite.
RelationsbetweenMoscowandtheWestturnedfetidoverRussia'sannexationofCrimeafromUkrainelastyearandRussia'ssupportforseparatist
insurgentsineasternUkraine.
ButfollowingthedowningofaRussianpassengerplaneoverEgyptonOct.31,andaseriesofterroristattacksinParisonNov.13IslamicState
hasclaimedresponsibilityforbothterroractsMoscowhastoneddownitsadamantlyanti-Westernrhetoricofthepastyear,andcalledforunity
infightingIslamicState.
Russia'sairstrikesinSyriawerewidelyseenasanattempttodistractattentionfromitsmeddlinginUkraineandtoreassertitselfasamajor
internationalplayerwhilesupportingtheAssadregime,butcallsforajointfightagainstterrorismhavebeenpartofRussianPresidentVladimir
Putin'sstancesincelongbeforetheUkrainiancrisis.
HageldidnotmentionUkraine,butsuggestedthatdifferencesbetweentheUnitedStatesanditsopponents,suchasRussia,couldbeputonthe
backburnerinthefaceofaformidablecommonenemy.
We'regonnahavedifferenceswithIranforyearsandyears,withRussiaforyears,butyoucan'tletthosedifferencesdictate,oryoucan'tbecome
captivetothedifferences,HageltoldCNN.Let'scenteronthecorethreat,thecommonthreat,buildoutfromthere.
Hagelresignedasdefensesecretarylastyear,followingdisagreementswithWhiteHouseadministrationofficialsoverSyrianpolicy.
IslamicStateisaterroristorganizationbannedinRussia.
PutininTehran
PutinmetwiththeAyatollahKhamenipriortotheopeningoftheGasExportingCountriesForum(GECF):
http://tass.ru/en/society/838571
Heresmore:http://tass.ru/en/world/838608
TEHRAN,November23/TASS/.AnydecisiononSyriashouldbemadewithconsentofitspeopleandrulers,IransSupremeLeaderAyatollahAli
KhameneitoldRussianPresidentVladimirPutininTehranonMonday.
"AnydecisiononSyriashouldbeimplementedwiththeconsentoftheSyrianpeopleandrulers.TheUnitedStateshasnorighttoignorethevoice
oftheSyrianpeople,"Khameneispressservicequotedhimassaying.
HeemphasizedthatSyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadwasalegitimatelyelectedSyrianpresidentandthatSyriasfuturepresidentshouldbeelected
bythemajorityofSyriansatthegeneralelectionsinwhichallthecitizenswouldtakepartirrespectiveofvariouspoliticalviews,ethnicityor
religiousapprehension.
AyatollahAliKhameneidescribedUSsupportforandfinancialaidtoterroristgroupsinSyriaas"dishonestdiplomacy."
"Apartfromthenuclearproblem,wearenotgoingtoholdbilateralnegotiationswiththeAmericansonanyissues,includingtheSyriancrisis,"
Khameneistressed.HeaddedthesolutionoftheSyrianproblemwasveryimportantforthesituationinthewholeregion.Ifterroristswhoare
committingcrimesinSyriaarenoteliminated,theywillspreadtheirdeadlyactivitiestoCentralAsiaandotherregions,AyatollahAliKhameneisaid.
KhameneialsopointedoutthatIranhighlyassessesRussiasroleinresolvingregionalproblems.
"DuringthemeetingwithRussiasPutin,theIraniansupremeleadersupportedfurtherexpansionofbilateral,regionalandinternationalinteraction
betweentwocountries,"theIranianpresidentialpressservicesaid.ThesupremeleaderhighlyassessedMoscowsroleinthesettlingtheregional
problems,includingtheSyriancrisis,thestatementsaid.
AliKhameneiurgedforcloserIranian-RussianrelationsinordertocounteracttheUSpolicy."TheAmericanshavealong-termplotandaretrying
todominateSyriaandthenthewholeregion,"thepresidentsaid."Thisisathreattoallcountries,especiallyRussiaandIran."
"TheUSarealwaysstrivingtopushoutthecompetitors,"Khameneisaid."UnwillingnesstoacceptRussiasgrowinginfluenceintheregionandin
theinternationalarenaaffectsalltheUSdecisionsandactionsconcerningSyrianquestion."
Accordingtothesupremeleader,theUSstrivestodominateintheSyrianquestioninordertobroadentheirinfluenceintheWesternAsianregion,
whichthreatenstheRussianandIranianpeoples.
ThisisfromanRBCDailypieceon18November:TheKremlinreportedlywasbackingtheThirdRussianCivicForum,anevent
heldbyKGI,despitetheparticipationofforeignagentNGOsandfallenexpertslikeSergeyGuriyev.TheRBCreportcame
outpriortotheevent,whichwasheldon20-21NovemberatMoscowsInternationalTradeCenter.RBCsaidthatKudrinmet
withPutinlastsummertodiscusstheforumandrequestthattheKremlinAdministrationsupportit.Theproposalwasaddressed
toFirstDeputyHeadoftheKremlinAdministrationVyacheslavVolodin,whooverseesthePAdomesticpoliticsbranch.RBCs
sourcessaidthatthePAwouldsupporttheforum.OnesourcetoldRBCthatcooperatingwithNGOsandcivilsocietywasa
priorityforthePA.
Navalniysubsequentlytweetedthatthewholeepisodewasfunnyandwascharacteristicofvlastsrelationshipwithsociety
KudrinrepliedthatKGIhadnotaskedthePAtoagreetotheforum,buttoagreetoallowfederalofficialstotakepart:
http://twitter.com/navalny/status/667984032186114048
AlexeyNavalnyVerifiedaccount@navalny
.
12:32AM-21Nov2015
1.
1. @Aleksei_KudrinNov21
@navalny,,.
http://akudrin.ru/news/vopros-ob-obraschenii-v-administratsiyu-prezidenta-rossii
Heresanewsrureportontheevent:http://newsru.com/russia/21nov2015/kudrin1.html
Attheforum,Kudrinstatedthathewasnotinterestedinpartybuildingatthistime,butinbuildingcivilsocietyhepointedto
limitationsonpoliticallifeinRussiaandconcentratedoneconomicquestions.Kudrinadded,however,thathewelcomedall
thosewhodidtakepartinpartybuildingandsaidthatwithoutpoliticalcompetition,Russiacouldnotgoonasamodernstate
Pointingtofallingrealincomes,Kudrinsaidthatsocialpolicies,inspiteoflargeexpenditures,wouldnotbeabletocopewiththe
challengesthecountrywasfacingSanctionshavecomplicatedtheeconomicsituationhesaidtheyhadcostRussia1.5%of
GDPandaccountedforhalfoftherublesdecline(theotherhalfbeingaresultoflowoilprices)Kudrindescribedthe
governmentresponsetothecrisisasinadequatebutatthesametime,hesaidthatvlasthadspentreserveseffectively.Kudrin
saidthatreserveshadbeenspenttoclosebudgetdeficitsthemoneyhadgonetoeducation,healthcare,defense,andsocial
programsKudrinagaincalledforstructuralreforms
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/pearson-and-dow-jones-sell-russias-vedomosti-
newspaper/550117.html
PearsonandDowJoneshaveagreedtoselltheirstakesinRussia'sVedomostinewspapertoalocalbusinessman,transferringoneofthecountry's
mostrespectedindependentbusinessdailiesintoRussianhandsforthefirsttime.
DemyanKudryavtsev,anInternetentrepreneurandformermediamanager,confirmedtoTheMoscowTimeshehadboughtthe33percentstakes
ownedbytheBritishandU.S.mediagroups.
KudryavtsevalreadyownedtheremainingthirdofVedomostiafterbuyingitfromFinland'sSanomaearlierthisyearmeaningthatthepaperhas
gonefromafullyforeign-tofullyRussian-ownednewspaperinsomesixmonths.
ThechangecomesasRussia'smedialandscapeisturnedupsidedownbylegislationbarringforeignersfromowningmorethan20percentofshares
inRussianmediafirms.ThelawwaspassedlastyearattheheightoftensionsovertheUkrainecrisisandcomesintoforceonJan.1,2016.Seenby
manyasawaytoincreasetheKremlin'scontrolofinformation,thelawhasseenafloodofforeignpublicationsandtelevisionnetworks,including
investigativeonessuchasForbesmagazine,transferredtolocalhands.
KudryavtsevsaidFridayhedidnotseekthedeal,andwouldratherhaveremainedpartneredwithTheFinancialTimesandTheWallStreetJournal,
thenewspapersownedbyPearsonandDowJones.HesaidtherewouldbenoimmediatechangestoVedomosti'sstaff,andthatheintendsto
respectthepaper'seditorialindependence.
Vedomostiwasfoundedin1999asajointventurebetweentheFT,theWSJandIndependentMedia,apublishinghouseownedbyDutchmedia
entrepreneurDerkSauer.Thenewspaper'sbarbedandoftenanti-KremlineditorialshavenotstoppeditbecominginfluentialamongRussia'selite.
ThepurchasecementsKudryavtsevasamajorplayeronRussia'smediascene.Kudryavtsev,aformerCEOofRussianpublishinghouse
Kommersant,boughtTheMoscowTimes,NationalGeographicandWomen'sandMen'sHealth,amongothertitles,fromSanomaearlierthisyear.
Kudryavtsevsaidthevalueofthedeal,whichisexpectedtocloselaterthisyear,issubjecttoanon-disclosureagreement.
DowJonesandPearsonsaidinajointstatementFridayafternoon:ThequalityandintegrityoftheVedomostieditorialteamisoutstandingand
boththeFTandtheWSJplantocontinuelicensingcontenttoVedomostitoprovidehigh-quality,internationalnewstoreadersinRussia."
Senttime: 11/23/201509:22:43AM
FW:GOTTALUVTHENUANCESOF'HYBRIDWARFARE'........[CALLIT'INFORMATIONALCARPETBOMBING']Oh!!UA&Tatar
Subject:
BudsBlewUpElectricLinesto"RU'sKrym"Oh!!UASoldISISWeaponsOh!!UA'Regime'Still'HauntedbyFascists'
Sent:Monday,November23,20157:32AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:GOTTALUVTHENUANCESOF'HYBRIDWARFARE'........[CALLIT'INFORMATIONALCARPETBOMBING']Oh!!UA&TatarBuds
BlewUpElectricLinesto"RU'sKrym"Oh!!UASoldISISWeaponsOh!!UA'Regime'Still'HauntedbyFascists'
From:VRT
Date:Mon,Nov23,2015at1:40AM
Subject:Crimeadeclaresstateofemergencyafterpowerlinesattacked
Guardian
Crimeadeclaresstateofemergencyafterpowerlinesattacked
ExplosionsonFridayandSundaycutoffelectricitysupplyfromUkraine,forcingRussian-annexedpeninsulato
relyongenerators
Almost2millionCrimeanswereleftwithoutpowerandindarknessattheweekendafterunknownsaboteursblewuppowerlines
tothepeninsula,underscoringitscontinueddependenceonUkrainedespiteitsannexationbyRussialastyear.
AstateofemergencywasdeclaredafterfourpylonsthattransmitpowertoCrimeawereblownuponFridayandSaturdaynight.
Russiasenergyministryscrambledtorestoreelectricitytocitiesusinggenerators,butthemajorityofpeopleonthepeninsula
remainedpowerlessonSaturdaynight.
Cableandmobileinternetstoppedworking,thoughtherewasstillmobilephonecoverage,andwatersuppliestohigh-risebuildings
halted.
Theattacksthreatentocomplicatestill-volatilerelationsbetweenMoscowandKievafter18monthsofon-offconflictover
territoryintheeastofUkraine.CrimeawasannexedbyRussiain2014afteranarmedbutbloodlessintervention,butthe
territorysstatusremainsprecariousbecauseofitsrelianceonUkraine.
TheCrimeanprimeminister,SergeiAksyonov,calledthedestructionoftheelectricitysupplyaterroristact.Noonewillbring
Crimeanstotheirknees,wewontallowfornegotiations,hesaid.Wewontletanyonespeaktousinthelanguageof
blackmail.
TheCrimeanprosecutorgeneral,NatalyaPoklonskaya,saidacriminalcasewouldopenedoverthedestructionofthepowerlines
acrossthedefactoborderwithUkraine,theRIANovostinewsagencyreported.
Alltheirmethods,alltheirdoingsfallundertheactionofapunishablecrime,shesaid.Mondayhasbeendeclaredaholidayin
Crimeaduetothepowersituation.
ThefourpylonswerefirstattackedonFridayinUkrainesKhersonregion.Explosionsdownedtwolinesanddamagedtheother
two.EarlyonSundayanotherexplosioncutallpowertoCrimea.Theidentityoftheattackerswasunclear.
AfterthefirstattackonFriday,Ukrenergo,Ukrainesstate-runenergycompany,postedpicturesofadownedpylonandonewith
aholeblownthroughit.Theheadoftheanti-narcoticsdepartmentofUkrainesinteriorministry,IlyaKiva,whowasatthescene,
wroteonFacebook:Thepylonshavejustbeenblownup!!!
OnSaturday,thepylonswerethesceneofviolentclashesbetweenactivistsfromtheRightSectornationalistmovementand
paramilitarypolice,Ukrainianmediareported.UkrainiannationalistshavelongbeenagitatingforanenergyblockadeofCrimeato
exertpressureontheformerUkrainianterritory.
RussianstatemediareportedthattheenergyministryhadofferedtohelpfixthelinesbutwasrejectedbytheUkrainianauthorities,
whosaidtheycouldfixtheproblemthemselves.Theemergenciesministryhascreatedateamof3,000employeesand1,000
piecesofequipmenttofacilitatedailylivinginCrimea,thedeputyhead,AlexanderChupriyan,said.Hewarnedthatthepower
outagecouldcontinueforalongtime.
MikhailSheremet,firstdeputypremierofCrimea,saidthepeninsulacouldonlysupplyhalfitspowerneedsatmostusingdiesel
generatorsandrenewablesourcessuchaswindandsolarpower,theTassstatenewsagencyreported.Crimeaexperienced
severaltotalpowercutslastwinter,attributedbytheauthoritiestorepairsandtechnicalproblemsbutseenbyresidentsas
deliberatepressurefromUkraine.
RussiaplanstobuildtwopowerstationsinCrimeathatwouldburngaspipedfromthemainland,butthesearestillattheplanning
stage.Officialssaidtherewasenoughfueltokeepthegas-anddiesel-poweredgeneratorsrunning.
Crimeaprovidesonly30%ofitsownenergy,accordingtotheregionalgovernment,anddependsonUkraineformuchofits
electricitysupplies.
Subject:Crimeapowerblackouthitseconomyasworkersstayhome-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,AylaBakkalli<aylabakkalli@yahoo.com>
Crimeapowerblackouthitseconomyasworkers
stayhome
AFPCrimea'scapitalSimferopolwasplungedintodarkness
OnlyessentialservicesandgovernmentofficesareoperatinginCrimeaafterkeyelectricitypylons
connectedtothepeninsulawereknockeddowninUkraine,causingamajorblackout.
MostofCrimea'stwomillionpeoplehavebeenhitbythepowercut.Therearealsosomewatershortages.
Anti-Russianactivistswereblamedforthecut.RussianforcesannexedCrimeainMarch2014,duringUkraine's
crisis.
PublictransportisstillrunningandCrimeanhospitalsareusinggenerators.
AstateofemergencywasimposedinCrimeaonSundayaftertwomorekeypylonsweredamaged-bringingthe
totaltofour.Mondaywasdeclaredanon-workingday.
ItisstillnotclearhowexactlythepylonsweredamagedinKherson,aUkrainianregionadjacenttoCrimea.That
regionhasbeentensesinceRussia'sannexationofCrimea-anactthatwascondemnedinternationally.
CrimeanTataractivists,denyingrepairworkersaccesstothedamagedpowerlines,suggestedthattheweakened
pylonswereblowndownbythewind.
ButUkraine'sstateenergycompany,Ukrenergo,saidthedamagewascausedby"shellingortheuseofexplosive
devices".
ATatarsymbolwastiedaroundadamagedpyloninKherson
RussiahasblamedUkrainiannationalistsfromfar-rightpartyRightSectoraswellasCrimeanTataractivists,callingit
"anactofterrorism".
EarlierthisyearthoseactivistgroupspreventedfoodlorriescrossingintoCrimea.
Theblackouthasknockedoutstreetlightingandcutcableandmobileinternet.Ithasalsoforcedtheclosureofsome
150schools.
ACrimeanTataractivisttoldUkraine'sTVnewsbroadcaster112UkrayinathatRussiamustrelease"political
prisoners"andlettheirleaderMustafaDzhemilevreturntoCrimeainexchangeforrepairstothepowerlines.
ButlaterMrDzhemilev,leaderoftheCrimeanTatarNationalMovement,toldBBCUkrainianthathissupporters
wouldgrantrepairworkersaccesstothepowerlines."IthinkthatCrimeawillhaveelectricitysoon",hesaid.
Emergencytimetable
CrimeanTataractivistsaccuseRussiaofabusingTatarrightsanddenyingthemavoicesinceapro-Moscow
governmentwasinstalledinCrimea.
ImagesonsocialmediashowUkrainianflagsonsomedamagedpylons-andCrimeanTatarflagsonothers.
AnelectricalshopinSimferopolisamongmanybusinessestemporarilyshutdownbytheemergency
CrimeanauthoritiessaidtheyhadmanagedtopartiallyreconnectthecitiesofSimferopol,YaltaandSevastopolusing
generators.
Only30%ofCrimea'selectricityisgeneratedlocally-therestcomesfromUkraine,Russia'sgovernmentdaily
RossiiskayaGazetareported.
Emergencypower-savingmeasureshavebeenimposed:Sevastopolisgettingthreehours'supply,followedbyasix-
hourcutinSimferopolresidentshavethree-hourpowercutsthreetimesaday.
Ukrainianauthoritiessaidtheyencounteredactivistsblockadingthesitewhentheytriedtorepairthedamagedpylons.
Thepowercutisthreateningfoodoutletswhichrelyoncoldstorageandlackgeneratingcapacity.
Ahospitalworkersaidtheelectricitywassufficienttokeepwardswarmbutnottopowerhotplates,sopatients
wereonlygettingcoldfood.
Subject:ClaimofUkrainianweaponssaletoISISpromptsdenials,alarm
BTW,theNobelPrizesforGullibility.....goto.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/claim-of-ukrainian-weapons-sale-to-isis-prompts-denials-alarm-402511.html
From:GFR
Subject:ReadandWipe
To:<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
NOTE:
"Similar contradictions as Ambassador Ford noted are blatant in the case of Ukraine where containment
and encirclement US policies are bound to backfire in the absence of a political solution or ideological
foundation rooted in democratic principles rather than political opportunism intended for short-term
geopolitical and economic gains. Supporting neo-Nazis among other heterogeneous elements in the
Ukraine against the Russian-backed separatist elements is not merely a manifestation of an
incoherent foreign policy filled with contradictions and aimlessness for the democratic West, it
also reveals Washingtons desperate anachronistic Cold War solutions to 21st century problems
amid the slow decline of the US in relationship to China."
Creating"Terrorism":TheWesternQuestForSociopolitical
ConformityAndImperialism
ByJonKofas
21November,2015
Countercurrents.org
Introduction:IsterrorismIdeologically-Motivated?
Governments,politicians,themedia,andacademicsdefinetheterm
terrorisminaccordancewiththeirpoliticalaims.Similarly,those
engagedinunconventionalmethodsofwarfare(guerrillawar)havetheir
owndefinitionoftheiractivitiesthattheywoulddefineasfreedom
strugglefromsomeoppressor(s).Althoughthetermterrorbecame
popularduringtheFrenchRevolutionwhenMaximilenRobespierreand
Saint-Just(September1793untilJuly1794)unleashedacampaignknown
asTheReignofTerror,itwastheactivitiesoflate19thcentury
anarchistsinRussiaandEuropethattargetedpublicofficialsfor
assassinationasapoliticalstatementabouttheneedforpoliticaland
socialchange.
Actsofviolenceagainstinnocentciviliansnotpublicofficials-eitheras
collateraldamageordeliberatelyacceleratedinthe20thcenturybynon-
statesponsoredgroupsrangingfromtheextremerighttotheextremeleft
withtheintentionofmakingapoliticalstatement.Onecouldarguethat
theKuKluxKlanclearlycarriedoutactsofterrorwiththecooperationof
thecriminaljusticesystem(fromthesherifftothecourtsand
DepartmentofJustice).Similarly,actsofterrorhavebeensponsored
overtlyandcovertlybystates,andifoneconsidersthatthevastmajority
ofpeoplekilledinwarsareindeedcivilians,thebiggestsponsorofterror
isthestatesimplybecauseithasatitsdisposalthemeansfororganized
massdestructionthatsmallgroupssimplydonothave.Forexample,the
ThirdReichcarriedouttheholocaustbecauseithasthemeanstoso,asit
hadthemeanstoengageallofEurope,RussiaandUSinaglobalwar.
Yet,politicians,mediaandacademicsattributelegitimacytomass
killingsandexpressrageatsmallscaleindividualassassinationsby
terrorists.
Thetopicofterrorismhasbeenanalyzedtothepointofabsurdity.Yet,
despitesuchplethoraofliterature,EuropeanandUSpoliticianspromise
tobringyetanotherplantoendterrorismwhichhasbeenrisingever
sincetheUSlaunchedwaronterrorinOctober2001.AGooglesearch
withtermsterrorismyieldsalmost100millionresultsfighting
terrorismyields720,000resultsandendingterrorismyieldscloseto
45,000results.AnAmazonbooksearchwiththewordterrorismyields
39,640resultsonthetopic,whilefightingterrorismyields574results
andendingterrorism21.Thesedonotincludetheconfidentialstudies
byvariousagenciesofgovernmentsandconsultingfirmsworkingforfees
toprovideyetanothersolutiontoaproblemthatonlygrowsastime
passesandwillcontinuetogrowinwhathasbecomeathrivingindustry
paralleltopoliceandmilitaryoperations.
Whyisterrorism,astheUSanditsEUalliesdefineit,namelyIslamic-
inspiredgroupsorganizedinafighttocombatwhattheyregardasevil
regimesintheMiddleEast,theWest,AfricaandAsia,soprominentsince
theendoftheColdWar?Afterlookingatsomeoftheliteratureonthe
subject,onecouldarguethattheunderlyingcauseisideological,religious
dogmatismandculturalowingtoaclashofcivilizationstoborrowthat
favoriteconservativeandliberalWesternclichwithunderlyingracist
themesnotbytheauthorSamuelHuntingtonwhocameupwiththe
conceptbutonthepartofthoseinterpretingit.Theconservativesofthe
late18thandearly19thcenturyarguedpreciselyalongthesamelinesas
modernconservativesblamingideologywhentheytriedtoexplainwhy
theFrenchRevolutiontookplace.Similarly,conservativeandliberalsof
the20thcenturyarguedthatideologicalpoisoningofthemindsofrebels
droveRussianstobacktheBolsheviks,theChinesetobackMaoandthe
CubanstosupportFidel.
Ifyouareconservative,theonlymotivationofleftistrebelsorjihadist
terroristsattheotherendoftheideologicalspectrumisideological,
devoidofoppressivesocial,economicandpoliticalconditions,devoidofa
sensethatforeignpowerscompromisehomelandsnationalsovereignty.
AllonehastodotobecomeaJihadistterroristorforthatmattera
Marxistrebelistohaveideologicalexposureandthatwouldsufficeto
pickupaweaponandfightforthecausebecauseareligiousorsecular
ideologycallsforchangeinthestatusquo.Clearly,thisnaveperspective
fliesinthefaceofempiricalrealitywhenweexaminethatthepeoplewho
joinajihadiststruggledosobecausetheyaredrivenbydesperationof
theirlivescausedbytheirgovernmentandsocialelites(asisthecasein
muchofsub-SaharaAfrica),byaforeigngovernment(s)andforeign
corporations,orinstigatedandsupportedbycounter-insurgency
operationsofforeigngovernments(ashasbeenthecaseinSyria).
Religiousdogma,ideology,andcultureplayaroleinsofarastheyjustify
theirpositionandprovideacoherentwaytoarticulatethecauseand
placeitintoalargerperspective.Otherwisetheywouldmerelybesharp
shootersonthehunttotakedowninnocentpeopletoproveapolitical
point.Socioeconomicandpoliticaldomesticconditionsandexternal
interventionintendedtocontrolthroughlocalthecountrythroughlocal
elitesareattherootoftheproblemdrivingpeopletorebelsandunless
theseareaddressed,terrorismwillcontinuetoevolveandexpandfrom
onegrouptothenext.ListeningtoWesternpoliticiansonewouldassume
thattheywanttoendterrorism,althougheverythingtheyhavebeen
doing,notsaying,pointsthattheywantevenmoreterrorism.
Therearetwomainreasonswhyterrorismservesthestatusquoofthe
countriesostensiblyundertakinganti-terrorpolicies,althoughinreality
theyarepromotingterrorismonehastodowithdomesticaffairsandthe
secondwithforeignpolicy.
1.Acultureoffearcultivatedbypoliticians,themedia,andbusinessesto
engenderconformitytotheinstitutionalstructureisoneofthereasons
thatterrorismisconstantlypresentedasanexistentialthreatwhenin
realitytheaveragepersonhasamuchgreaterchanceofdyinginacar
accidentorbygun-violenceinthestreetsoftheUSorEurope.Ifpeople
acceptterrorismastherealnationalsecurityissueratherthansocial
justice,civilrights,extremesocioeconomicinequality,andapolitical
systeminclusiveofallpeopleandjustthetoptenpercentofthe
wealthiesttothedetrimentofthemajority,thenthesocialcontractand
statusquoremainunchanged.
2.Policiesofmilitarismandcovertoperationstodestabilizeregimesfor
thepurposeofgaininggeopoliticaladvantageandeconomicimperialism
isanotherreasontouseterrorismasthepretext,andinfacttocreateand
perpetuateit.DuringtheColdWar,theUSusedCommunismasan
existentialthreattoimposeitsroleastheworldspolicemanandexpand
economically,whileengenderingconformityathomeamidaquasi-
apartheidregimethatkeptminoritiesonthemarginsofsociety.TheCold
Warisoverandterrorismsimplytookitsplace,especiallysincetheUS-
EUeffortstorecreatetheColdWarwithRussiaovertheUkrainehave
turnedoutadismalfailureinthelasttwoyears.NotthatthewarinIraq
andAfghanistanaimedtoendterrorismworkedmuchbetter,andwe
mustjudgepolicybyresultsaloneandnotpopulistrhetoricandexcuses.
Inthelastanalysisaforeignpolicyrootedinimperialismcannotbe
justifiedunlessithasanEVILenemytoblameandforthepublictofear
andthisiswhereterrorismfitsinsowell.
HumanNatureandTerrorism
Peoplearenotbornterroristsanymorethantheyareimperialists
advocatingeconomic,politicalandstrategichegemonythatviolates
nationalsovereigntywiththeintenttosubjugateandexploit.Institutional
structurescreateterrorismasmuchasimperialismandthetwoare
intertwinedinmodernhistory,atleastfromthelate19thcenturywhen
Europeanimperialistswereusingconventionalmilitaryforceto
perpetuatetheirsubjugationoverthepeopleofAfricaandAsia(India,
China,Sudan,SouthAfrica,Philippines,tomentionjustafew).
IntheaftermathoftheIrishfamineintheaftermathoftheRevolutionsof
1848,theIrishstruggleforindependencethroughvariousorganizations
FenianBrotherhoodandIrishRepublicanBrotherhoodisindicativeof
militantsemployingunconventionalmeanstofightagainstBritish
imperialists.Similarly,therewerearmedanti-colonialstrugglesthatthe
BritishlabeledterroristintheSudanandEgypt(1880s-1890s)aswellas
SouthernAfrica,NigeriaandGhana.Paralleltotheanti-imperialist
strugglesinthenon-WesternWorld,therewerealsoterroristactivities
withintheWest,fromRussiatoEuropeandUSundertakenprimarilyby
anarchistswhobelievedthattargetedattacksonhigh-profilepublic
officialswouldpublicizetheircauseforsocialjusticeandbringabout
systemicchange.
Grantedittakesacertaintypeofpersonalitytoengageinunconventional
warfare,buttheaveragepersonisnotbynaturepronetokillinginnocent
civiliansforthesakeofrevengeandpublicityanymorethantheyare
interestedinmasskillingsthroughthelawfulcoverofagovernmentair
forceorarmy.Humanbeingswithinthecontextofaninstitutional
structurecanbecomepartofamasskillingmachine(armedforces),as
theycanjustaseasilybecomeinvolvedinterrorism,whichismerelyan
unconventionalformofwarbutlackinglegitimacy.Justasmanyofthose
engagedinconventionalwarcombatarementallyunstableifnot
sociopathsasthereareterroristswhoarejustasmentallyunbalanced.
However,aftertheParisbombing,oneoftheISISorISILoperativesthat
defectedexplainedtotheauthoritiesthereasonspeopleatthegrassroots
gravitatetowardthejihadistorganizationismainlyendemicpovertyin
SyriathatdidnotexistbeforetheUS,WesternandTurkish-Arab-backed
rebelmovement.
Evenwithallthedeathsandinjuriesthatterrorismhascreated,itis
estimatedthatinthe20thcenturybetween165millionand175million
peoplewerekilledinconventionalwarswheremostofthevictimsare
indeedcivilians.Howmanywerekilledbyterrorisminthelast100
years?Therearenoprecisestatistics,buttheynumberintothetensof
thousandsandnothundredsofmillions.EvenPresidentObamapointed
outinoneofhisspeechesthatterrorismhaskilledafewthousand
Americansinthelasttwodecades,whereasgunviolencehaseliminated
closeto350,000.
Infact,accordingtotheHeritageFoundation:From1969to2009,
almost5,600peoplelosttheirlivesandmorethan16,300people
sufferedinjuriesduetointernationalterrorismdirectedattheUnited
States.(http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/05/terror-
trends-40-years-data-on-international-and-domestic-terrorism).
AccordingtotheNewYorkTimes,from1968tothepresent,more
AmericanshavebeenkilledbygunviolencethaninallUSwars
combined.
(http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/aug/27/nicholas-
kristof/more-americans-killed-guns-1968-all-wars-says-colu/)
Despitethesestatistics,theUSmedia,politiciansandpunditsincessantly
perpetuateacultureoffear,projectingtheimpressionthattheaverage
citizenisthreatenedbyterrorismwheninfacttheaveragecitizenislikely
todiebygunviolenceinthehandsofsomementallyillorenraged
individual.Moreover,themedia,punditsandpoliticiansneverpointout
thatconventionalwarskillonamassivescale,thatgunviolenceisareal
existentialthreat,whileterrorismactivities,asreprehensibleand
loathsomeastheyare,killveryfewbycomparisonbecauseofthenature
oftheoperations.Nordotheyeveraddresstheunderlyingcausesof
terrorism,preferringinsteadtocultivateracistattitudesthatasegmentof
thepublicentertainsaboutMuslimsnomatterwhotheyare.
Realistically,isitpossibletostopterroristattacksinEuropeandtheUS,
usingmodernintelligenceandpolicemethods?
Ifitwerepossibletostopterroristattacks,whyhasitnothappenedsince
9/11,especiallywiththeinstitutionalizationofananti-terrorismvirtual
policestateintheUSthatsharesintelligencewithitsallies?Itis
completelyunderstandablethattheaveragepersoncriesoutforthe
governmenttojuststopterrorism,justastheycriedoutinthe1980sSay
NotoDrugsandthegovernmentdeclaredwarondrugs.HastheUS
wonthewarondrugs,awarthroughwhichmanybanksweremaking
immenseprofitslaunderingdrugmoney?AccordingtoHuffington:Bank
ofAmerica,WesternUnion,andJPMorgan,areamongtheinstitutions
allegedlyinvolvedinthedrugtrade.Meanwhile,HSBChasadmittedits
launderingrole,andevadedcriminalprosecutionbypayingafineof
almost$2billion.Thelackofimprisonmentofanybankersinvolvedis
indicativeofthehypocriticalnatureofthedrug
war.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/avinash-tharoor/banks-cartel-
money-laundering_b_4619464.html
Unlikeconventionalwarsbetweencountrieswithspecifictargetsand
throughconventionalmeans,terrorismisdispersedthroughoutthe
planetinmorethanone-thirdofthecountries.Immediatelyafterthe
Parisbombing,cameahitinnorthernNigeriabyBokoHaram,the
militantIslamicgroupactiveinNigeria,Niger,Cameroon,andChad.
Althoughthemediahardlydevotedanycoveragetoitbecausethevictims
werenotWesterners,theorganizationhasbeenactivesince2002.Isthe
waronterrorgoingtoeliminateBokoHaramaswellasNorthernMali
wherepro-al-QaedaIslamicrebelstookhostageson20November2015
justastheWestmakingpromisestoendterrorism?Iftherearean
estimate41countrieswithIslamicrebelsassomereportsindicate,where
exactlywouldtheUSanditsalliesbegintoendterrorismonaworldscale
withmorethanone-and-a-halfbillionMuslimsandgrowingatmuch
fasterratesthananyotherreligiousgroup?
ImmediatelyaftertheParisbombing,Chinaaskedforpoliticalsupportto
crushitsownmilitantMuslims,justasRussiademandedthatitsanti-
jihadistcampaignisjustified.BesidesgoingafterMuslimsinsouthern
Xinjiang,spreadingfear,repression,andviolence,theChinese
governmentalsohasbeenfightingtheUyghurmilitantsinthewestern
regionwhowanttocreateanindependentEastTurkestan.Arethe
Chineserepressingtheminoritiesoftheircountryandignoringhuman
rights,oraretheyfightingterrorism?IstheUSinterestedinhelping
Chinafightitsdomesticterrorists,orisitonlyinterestinginChina
backingUSeffortstodethronethepro-RussianAssadinSyriaandfight
againstselectjihadistsinSyriaandIraq?
Wheredoesthisabsurdgameofthewaronterrorbeginandwheredoes
itendinthe41countrieswithIslamicmilitants?DoestheWesternwaron
terrorstayfocusedonwhattheUSandEUwant,doesitincludewhat
RussiaandChinawant,doesitgofarthertoincludeAfricaandIndia?
Whodecides,whocarriesoutthesecostlycampaignsandwheredoesit
stopconsideringthenatureofterrorismisunconventionalandthenext
doorneighborcouldbeonedocarryoutanactdespiteRussian,US,and
Frenchplanesbombingspecifictargets.Onereasonthatpresidential
candidateHillaryClintonruledouttroopsonthegroundinSyria(19
November2015)isbecausesheknowsitwillendinpolitical,militaryand
economicfailurefortheUS,whilealienatingifnotradicalizingMuslims
acrosstheworld.
Ontheeveofthe13thanniversaryof9/11,presidentObamaaskedthe
AmericanpeopletosupporthiswaronISISoperatinginpartsofSyria
andIraq.IfwelookattherebelgroupsoperatinginSyriaagainstAssad
justtwoyearsago,thereweremorethan1000andnumberedroughly
100,000.Brokendown,however,wearestruckthattheyareeitherISIS,
al-Qaeda,pro-ISISorpro-al-Qaeda(al-NusraFront),withveryfewthat
arewithneitherISISnoral-Qaeda.Inotherwords,wherearethe
elementsforestablishingapro-Westmoderatedemocraticregimeinthis
country?Evenifafewofthemamidtheirstruggleprofesspro-US,pro-
Westleanings,whatguaranteesaretherethattheywillnotturnonthe
Westjustasdidal-QaedathattheUSassistedinthe1980sduringthewar
againsttheUSSRinAfghanistan,ormorerecentlyISISinthewaragainst
Syria.
Inhisspeechonthe13thanniversaryof9/11,Obamastated:This
counterterrorismcampaignwillbewagedthroughasteady,relentless
efforttotakeoutISILwherevertheyexistusingourairpowerandour
supportforpartnerforcesontheground.Whathehadinmindwas
dronewarfarethatmanyorganizationsandgovernmentshave
condemnedascausingindiscriminatedamageandkillingfarmore
innocentciviliansthanrebelsinAfghanistan,Pakistan,Yemen,Somalia
andothercountries.Forthiskindofwarthathasprovedcontroversial,if
notawarcrime,Obamaisaskingthesupportofthepeople,knowingfull
wellveryfewwoulddaretocriticizeanykindofwaragainstterrorism.
ClintonsupportsthisaswellandmanyRepublicanswouldhavethe
marineslandinSyriabecausetherecordshowsthatthingsworkedoutso
wellinIraqandAfghanistan!
TheObamapolicyisinessencearehashedBushpolicywithdronesand
covertoperationsthroughvariouslocalagents.Willthisachieveitsgoal,
orcreatemoreterrorismwhichistheunspokengoalbecauseitservesthe
political,economicanddiplomatic(balanceofpower)interestsoftheUS?
Theonlythingthatmattersisthatthepresidentandthegovernment
projectanimageofstrengthidentifiedwithmilitaryactionthatmakes
AmericansfeelsaferathomeandperhapsputthefearofGodin
Americasenemies.RightwingersandofcourseIsraelanditsAmerican
supportersbelievethatAmericamustdomoremilitarilytoteach
terroristsalesson-nodoubtalessonthatwouldonlycreatemore
terrorismasithasinthelastfifteenyears.Realityisnotimportantfor
thesepeopledrivenbyideology,racism,politicalopportunism,and
defenseindustrylobbyinginfluence.Theimageprojectedthroughthe
mediathattheyarefightingterrorismistheonlythingthatmatters.
IsHomelandSecurityrecollectionofdatafromallserversthebest
alternativetointerceptfutureattacksoraretheyotherwaystogetthejob
donemoreefficiently?
Itisincumbentuponanygovernmenttoprotectitscitizensfromthreats
domesticandforeign,whileworkingwithintheconstitutionalandlegal
framework.TheestablishmentofHomelandSecurityhasviolatedthe
constitutional(FourthAmendment-prohibitsunreasonablesearchesand
seizuresandrequiresanywarranttobejudiciallysanctionedand
supportedbyprobablecause)andlegalframework(openrecordslaw)as
wenowknowasaresultoftheEdwardSnowdenrevelations,whileithas
notdeterredterrorismonaglobalscale,althoughithashelpedtodeterit
uptoadegreedomestically.HomelandSecurityprojectstheimagethatit
isthesolutiontoaproblem.Moreover,HomelandSecurityisinessencea
pretexttostrengthenthepolicestatethattheUShasbecomesothatit
canjustifythecontinuationofthedyingPaxAmericanaandneoliberal
policiesthatcontinuetoweakenthesocialfabricathome.
Thekeyquestioniswhethertherehasbeenanincreaseordecreaseof
terrorisminthelastthirteenyearsthattheUShasbeenengagedinthis
globalcampaignatanenormouscosttotheUStaxpayersbycreating
HomelandSecurity.AccordingtotheNationalConsortiumfortheStudy
ofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism(START)(Universityof
Maryland),terrorismincreasedinAsia,Africa,MiddleEastandona
globalscale.Manyhavereachedtheconclusionthatthewaronterror
feedsterrorismanditsincreasethroughouttheworld.Othersnotethat
theUSanditsalliesengagedinformalwaragainstterrorismkilling
thousandsofinnocentcivilians,injuringandmanymoremillionsof
displacedandimpoverishedpeoplethathavebecomerefugees.
TheHomelandSecurityfixisinlargemeasureanextensionofthe
military-industrialcomplexintendedtodishoutcontractstoprivate
companiesandtomaintaintheUSaquasi-policestate.Theideathat
moreandbettertechnologyisthesolutionisitselfanextensionofsuch
thinkingtodishoutbillionsoftaxpayerdollarstohightechcompaniesso
thatgovernmentcouldthenarguethatitprovidessecuritywheninfactit
isworkinghardtocreateinsecuritiesandstimulateevenmoreterrorism
thanwenowhavearoundtheworld.Onthesurface,thismayindeed
seemabsurd,butitmakessenseifexaminedfromtheperspectiveofthe
veryinfluentialcorporateintereststhathavearoleinpolicymakingand
wantnothingbetterthanmoregovernmentcontractsfortheircompanies
andthepublicsfocusonterrorismratherthanraisingtheminimumwage
andraisinglivingstandards.
HomelandSecurityplaysintothehandsofrightwingideologues,racists
andxenophobeswhatwantstrictimmigrationlaws,appliedina
discriminatorymanner,allinthenameofnationalsecurity.EvenObama
ridiculedtheideathatathree-yearSyrianorphanposesathreatto
rightwingxenophobeswhodonotwantMuslimscomingtotheUS.
Francehasalreadydecidednottocavetorightwingpressuresonthis
issueandtoaccept30,000refugeesinthenexttwoyearsasagreedwith
GermanyanditsEUpartners.TheFrenchgovernmentdidnotcavetothe
neo-FascistNationalFrontPartyledbyMarine.Migrantsbringfilth,
crime,povertyandIslamicterrorism,Ms.LePenhassuggestedinrecent
weeksadeadmigrantchildsphotowassimplyaploytomanipulate
Europeanfeelingsofguilt.Franceisabouttobesubmergedina
terrifyingwaveofmigrantswhorepresentonlya
burden.http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/world/europe/for-
marine-le-pen-migration-is-a-ready-made-issue.html?_r=0
LedbythepopulistbillionaireTrump,theUSRepublicanpresidential
candidateshavetakenahardlineonimmigrantstowintherightwing
vote.ThattheRepublican-ledUSHouseofRepresentativespassed
xenophobicimmigrationreformblatantlyracistafewdaysaftertheParis
bombingisindicativeofthedirectionthatasegmentofthepoliticalelites
aretakingthepublic.Peoplearelookingforascapegoatinthetragedyof
SyrianmigrantsthattheUSanditsalliescausedinthefirstplaceby
destabilizingAssad.HavingabsolutelynothingtoshowforUSdirectand
indirectoperationsinSyria,largelybecauseRussia,ChinaandIranwould
notcaveintoUSpressures,thesolutionisracistandxenophobic
legislationagainstthevictimsofthewartheUSanditsalliescaused.
IfterroristsdetonatedanuclearbombinsideamajorcityinEuropeor
theUS,wouldgovernmentsconsideranexterminationrampage,
includingtheexpulsionofMuslimsinwesterncountries?
Terroristscanonlyobtainnuclearweaponsfromgovernments,whereas
conventionalweaponsaresoldbycommercialvendorsfortherightprice.
AccordingtotheUKpaperTheDailyMail:Isisareusingsignificant
quantitiesofUS-madeweaponstospreadtheirreignofterroracrossthe
MiddleEast,accordingtoanewreport.ThisfindingcamefromLondon-
basedresearchgroupConflictArmamentResearch(CAR)afterit
conductedon-the-groundinvestigationsinIraqandSyria.Itsbeen
knownforawhilethatIsishasbeenusingU.Smilitaryhardware,but
CARsstudyisthefirstbyanon-governmentbodytotryanddocumentin
detailwhathardwaretheterroristgroup,alsoknownastheIslamicState
(IS),isdeploying.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-
2749197/ISIS-arming-US-military-hardware-wage-jihad-Middle-East-
seizing-weapons-Syrian-rebels-Iraqi-soldiers.html#ixzz3s20D4JCz
Justasterroriststodayobtainarms,trucks,andallkindsofsuppliesas
wellasmoneyfromgovernmentsandbusinessmen,similarlytheonly
waytosecureanuclearweaponwouldbefromoneofthenuclearclub
states.JustasISIShadbeenreceivingdirectandindirectsupportof
variouskindsfromthecountriesImentionedabove,includingtheUSand
UKlargelyresponsibleforitsgrowthandexpansion,similarlyfuture
terroristorganizationswouldenjoythesameprivilege.IfIsrael,Pakistan,
India,France,UKortheUSwantstocreatehavocintheMiddleEast,
givingjihadistsanuclearbombwouldachievethegoal.However,theroot
causeoftheproblemwouldbethegovernmentthatprovidedthenuclear
weapon.
Thisisextremelyunlikelyandonlyascenarioofrightwingpropaganda
wehavecometoexpectnotjustfromFOXNEWSthatISISparticularly
enjoysbecauseitservesitsgoalstorecruitandretainrebelsand
supporters,butmainstreammediapropagandaintendedtocultivatethe
cultureoffearamongthepublic.Itisjustanotherinaseriesofmythsso
thatpeoplearenotfocusedontheirimmediatelives,onrepayingthe
collegedebt,havinggovernmentraisetheminimumwageabovethe
povertyline,providingaffordablehousing,copskillingblackteenagers
everydayandjustifyingonthebasisoflawandorder.Nuclearbomb
threatscanonlycomefromthenuclearclubthathasthemandonlyif
oneoftheclubmemberswishestosinktheworldintochaoswouldwe
seeanuclearbombinthehandsofrebelgroups.
HasthemoderateMuslimworlddoneenoughtostopterroristnetworks
orcouldtheydoabetterjobtohelppreventattacks?
WhatisthemoderateMuslimWorldandwhoexactlydeterminesthe
criteria?IsitSaudiArabia,KuwaitandtheGulfStatesthathaveahistory
offinancingmilitantjihadists,includingISISwhilecloselyallying
themselveswiththeUS?Isitpro-USEgyptthatfailedtoprotectthe
RussianplanefromanISISbomb?IsitPakistanthathasbeenaUS
strategicsatelliteunderthegunandallalongplayingallsidesfromthe
ChinesetotheTaliban?IsitIraqandLibyathattheUSanditsalliesleft
inshamblesandcausedtherefugeeproblem?
Letusassumeforthesakeofargumentthattheanti-IslamistEgyptian
governmentconstitutesmoderatebecauseUStheArabdictatorshipsin
theGulfandIsraelfavorit.WhywasISISabletoplantasimplesodapop-
bombtobringdowntheRussianplaneandkill224passengers?Inthe
absenceofcooperationontheground,terroristattacksarenotpossibleat
anairport,andcooperationonthegroundmeansthatthereareenough
peoplesympathetictothejihadistcause.
ConsideringthattheonlystableandstrongMiddleEastIslamicregimeis
Iran,whichhasbeenwillingtocooperatewiththeUStocontainSunni
jihadists,doesWashingtonwantIrantoplaythepreeminentroleinthe
regionalbalanceofpower?DoesIranfitinwithWashingtonsbroader
goalsofperpetuallydestabilizingtheMiddleEastandusingIsraeltohelp
out?ConsideringthewaninginfluenceoftheUSintheregionagainstthe
realityofChinasrisingeconomicroleintheworld,Russiashistoricties
withcertaincountrieslikeSyria,Iransdominantregionalrole,why
woulddestabilizationnotmakesensesinceIsraelwantstheexactsame
thingastheWashington?
WhywouldMuslimgovernmentstakecomfortfromUSpolicyof
destabilizingandoverthrowingMiddleEast-NorthAfricanregimesso
thatitcouldexertpreeminenteconomic,militaryandstrategicinfluence
whenintheprocesschaosistheonlyresult?EvenifMuslimswantto
supporttheUSwaragainstISIS,howcantheydosowhentheUShasa
longhistoryofacrusadingforeignpolicytowardMuslimcountries,
exemptingthemoreauthoritarianSaudiArabiaandGulfStatesthathave
beenfundingISIS,whilestrikingselectivelyatregimesthattheUSwants
replaced.EvenaftertheParistragedy,theUSgoalremainstooverthrow
Assadandreplacehimwithapro-USpuppetinsteadofonebeholdento
RussiaandIran.
Assumingthereis100%popularandpoliticalsupportforObamas
versionoftheBushanti-terrorismpolicy,oreventheRepublicanversion
ofrevisitingtheIraqmodelofwarandoccupationinSyria,canthisbring
thedesiredgoalintofruition,orisitmerelyanotherpublicrelationsploy
onthepartofbothDemocratandRepublicanpoliticianswhocannotdeal
effectivelywithdomesticproblemslikeadecliningmiddleclassanda
massivepublicdebt?
Conclusions
DoUSpoliciesincreaseterrorismratherthandecreasingitasthe
governmentclaims?Wemustassumethatpolicymakersareverysmart
peoplewithexperiencewhoalsorelyonoutsideconsultantstoformulate
policy.Whilethiswouldbeasafeassumption,itisnotassafetovouchfor
theirmentalstability,theirblindingideologicalframeofmind,and
career-basedopportunismthattakeprecedenceovereverythingelse
fromhumanrightstosocialjustice.
Itissafetoassumethatthoseinpolicymaking,politicians,pundits,and
themediabelievethesameformulathatworkedinbringingdownthe
Communistblocwouldworkonendingterrorism,regardlessofthe
realitythatCommunistswereorganizedinstatesandemployed
conventionalmethodsjustasthoseopposingthem.Finally,itissafeto
assumethatthemoreastuteapologistsofthebogusanti-terrorism
industrythattheUShascreatedrealizeitisdoomedtofailandinfactto
bringaboutanincreaseinterrorism.
IwashardlysurprisedtoseearecentCNNreportclaimingthatISISloves
Westernmediabecauseitplaysintoitspropagandagoals.Theyare
especiallyappreciativeofFOXNEWSthatconstantlypreacheswarwith
Islamandbootsontheground,thusjustifyingthecallofISIStorecruit
Muslimstodefendtheirlandandtheirfaith.Absurdityslimitsdonot
stopwithJihadiststhattheWestpraiseswhentheyareinvolvedin
topplingaregimethattheUSopposesLibyaorSyria,forexample-but
baptizesterroristswhentheycarryoutpoliticalactsofviolenceagainst
Westernorpro-Westerntargets.
BecauseofsuchblatantabsurditiesinUSforeignpolicyrevealthe
ultimateinirrational,unconscionablesheerpoliticalopportunismand
totalabsenceofanymoralfoundation,RobertFord,formerUS
AmbassadortoSyria,hadwarnedthatUSpolicyassistinganti-Assad
Islamicmilitantswouldresultintheriseofterrorismthatcould
potentiallytouchUSinterests.AmbassadorFordnotedtheexampleof
Afghanistaninthe1980swhentheUStrainedJihadiststhatwould
eventuallyturnintoal-Qaeda.
SimilarcontradictionsasAmbassadorFordnotedareblatantinthecase
ofUkrainewherecontainmentandencirclementUSpoliciesareboundto
backfireintheabsenceofapoliticalsolutionorideologicalfoundation
rootedindemocraticprinciplesratherthanpoliticalopportunism
intendedforshort-termgeopoliticalandeconomicgains.Supportingneo-
NazisamongotherheterogeneouselementsintheUkraineagainstthe
Russian-backedseparatistelementsisnotmerelyamanifestationofan
incoherentforeignpolicyfilledwithcontradictionsandaimlessnessfor
thedemocraticWest,italsorevealsWashingtonsdesperate
anachronisticColdWarsolutionsto21stcenturyproblemsamidtheslow
declineoftheUSinrelationshiptoChina.
Onecouldarguethatthereisnogreatermachineofterrorthanthestate
thathasatitsdisposalthemassivemeansofthepoliceandmilitaryto
inflictmassivedamage,asInotedintheintroduction.Itisalso
noteworthytopointoutthatterrorizinganentirenationcanbecarried
outbynon-militarymechanisms,suchastheIMFrepresentingfinance
capitalhasatitsdisposalwhenimposingausterityandimpoverishesand
bankruptsmillionsofpeoplewithinaremarkablyshortperiod.Finally,
thereisalsothephenomenonofcorporateterrorism,mostprominently
demonstratedinColombiawhereUS-basedcorporationswerehiring
deathsquadstoassassinateandintimidatethepeasants.
AccordingtotheUN,andhumanrightsorganizations,leftwingkillings
carriedoutinColombiahaveaccountedfor12%ofclash-relatedfatalities,
whilerightwingparamilitarydeathsaccountfor80%,raisingthe
questionofwhoisbehindright-wingdeathsquadsandforwhatpurpose.
Similarly,thevastmajorityofdisappearancesandkidnappingsare
attributedtorightwingparamilitarygroupsthatareatthecoreofhuman
rightsviolationsinvariablyignoredbytheColombiangovernmentandthe
USthathashistoricallyclosetieswithColombia.Accordingtoanumber
ofpresreportsandhumanrightsorganizations,CocaColaBottling,
ChiquitaBananaandDrummondminingoperationsarethreecompanies
thathaveinthepastfinancedrightwingparamilitaryoperationsresulting
inkillings,disappearancesandpersecutionoftradeunionists,labor
organizersandleftistactivists.TheGermanTVnetworkDeutscheWella
recentlyranalongdocumentaryonthisissue,focusingmostlyon
DrummondanditsroleinColombia.Thiswastakingplaceduringthe
secondtermoftheBushadministrationandearlyyearsofObama,years
thatcoincidedwithUSglobalcampaignagainstIslamicterrorists,while
turningablindeyetoUScorporate-hiredterrorists.
WhentheforeignministerofSwedenproposedthatworkingtowarda
solutiontothePalestinianQuestioncouldhelpcontainterrorism,Israel
andtheWesternpresscondemnedsuchlinkage.Itisnosecrettothe
entireworldthatIsraelhasbeenterrorizingthePalestinianpeopleunder
apartheidconditionssince1948.ItisalsonosecretthatPalestiniansare
condemnedasterroristswhentheyarefightingforahomelandwhilethe
Israeliarmedforceskillingthemenmasseispresentedasdefendingits
security.Thistypeofhypocrisyisnotlostonpeople,includingmany
Jewsallovertheworld.Itisnavetoassumethatsimplysettlingonceand
forallthePalestinianQuestionwhilepursuingimperialistpoliciestoward
Islamiccountrieswouldsomehowendterrorism.
ThePalestinianQuestionmustbesettledonitsownmerits,eventhough
ithasreverberationsacrosstheentireIslamicworld.ThattheSwedish
foreignministerscommentswerecriticizedinsteadofembracedisjust
anotherillustrationthattheWesterncountriesledbytheUSwant
terrorismtocontinueandtothriveaslongastheyarenottheones
sufferingcasualtiesorhavingtoacceptrefugeesfleeingtheircountries
becausetheUSdestabilizedthem.Aslongascasualtiesandrefugeesare
confinedtoMuslimcountries,aswasthecaseinBeirutjustdaysbefore
theParisbombing,thenalliswellbecauseracismisaliveandwellinthe
ChristianWest.
Thedifferentlobbies,theideologues,andthecheerleadersofPax
Americanawillnotstopcheeringanymeasurethatonthesurface
appearstodealwithapoliticalproblemthroughmilitarymeans.The
withinthesystemcriticssuggestingbothamilitaryandpolitical
solutionarealwaysthereofferingtheso-calledliberalbalancein
democracy.Whatislackingisarealisticapproachbasedonthetrue
capabilitiesandlimitsofPaxAmericanaintheageofrisingAsian
economichegemony.Finally,istheUSinterestedinregimechange
becauseithasinmindthebestinterestsofthepeopleinthosecountriesit
destabilizes,wishingthemtohavegreatersocialjusticeandeconomic
wellbeing?Ifso,shouldnttheUSbefocusingonachievingthesesame
goalsathomeforitsowncitizens,especiallyminoritiesbutalsothe
weakermiddleclasssufferingdownwardmobilityinthelastthree
decades?
JonKofasisaretireduniversityProfessorfromIndianaUniversity.
Senttime: 11/23/201509:22:43AM
FW:GOTTALUVTHENUANCESOF'HYBRIDWARFARE'........[CALLIT'INFORMATIONALCARPETBOMBING']Oh!!UA&Tatar
Subject:
BudsBlewUpElectricLinesto"RU'sKrym"Oh!!UASoldISISWeaponsOh!!UA'Regime'Still'HauntedbyFascists'
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:GOTTALUVTHENUANCESOF'HYBRIDWARFARE'........[CALLIT'INFORMATIONALCARPETBOMBING']Oh!!UA&TatarBuds
BlewUpElectricLinesto"RU'sKrym"Oh!!UASoldISISWeaponsOh!!UA'Regime'Still'HauntedbyFascists'
From:VRT
Subject:Crimeadeclaresstateofemergencyafterpowerlinesattacked
Guardian
Crimeadeclaresstateofemergencyafterpowerlinesattacked
ExplosionsonFridayandSundaycutoffelectricitysupplyfromUkraine,forcingRussian-annexedpeninsulato
relyongenerators
Almost2millionCrimeanswereleftwithoutpowerandindarknessattheweekendafterunknownsaboteursblewuppowerlines
tothepeninsula,underscoringitscontinueddependenceonUkrainedespiteitsannexationbyRussialastyear.
AstateofemergencywasdeclaredafterfourpylonsthattransmitpowertoCrimeawereblownuponFridayandSaturdaynight.
Russiasenergyministryscrambledtorestoreelectricitytocitiesusinggenerators,butthemajorityofpeopleonthepeninsula
remainedpowerlessonSaturdaynight.
Cableandmobileinternetstoppedworking,thoughtherewasstillmobilephonecoverage,andwatersuppliestohigh-risebuildings
halted.
Theattacksthreatentocomplicatestill-volatilerelationsbetweenMoscowandKievafter18monthsofon-offconflictover
territoryintheeastofUkraine.CrimeawasannexedbyRussiain2014afteranarmedbutbloodlessintervention,butthe
territorysstatusremainsprecariousbecauseofitsrelianceonUkraine.
TheCrimeanprimeminister,SergeiAksyonov,calledthedestructionoftheelectricitysupplyaterroristact.Noonewillbring
Crimeanstotheirknees,wewontallowfornegotiations,hesaid.Wewontletanyonespeaktousinthelanguageof
blackmail.
TheCrimeanprosecutorgeneral,NatalyaPoklonskaya,saidacriminalcasewouldopenedoverthedestructionofthepowerlines
acrossthedefactoborderwithUkraine,theRIANovostinewsagencyreported.
Alltheirmethods,alltheirdoingsfallundertheactionofapunishablecrime,shesaid.Mondayhasbeendeclaredaholidayin
Crimeaduetothepowersituation.
ThefourpylonswerefirstattackedonFridayinUkrainesKhersonregion.Explosionsdownedtwolinesanddamagedtheother
two.EarlyonSundayanotherexplosioncutallpowertoCrimea.Theidentityoftheattackerswasunclear.
AfterthefirstattackonFriday,Ukrenergo,Ukrainesstate-runenergycompany,postedpicturesofadownedpylonandonewith
aholeblownthroughit.Theheadoftheanti-narcoticsdepartmentofUkrainesinteriorministry,IlyaKiva,whowasatthescene,
wroteonFacebook:Thepylonshavejustbeenblownup!!!
OnSaturday,thepylonswerethesceneofviolentclashesbetweenactivistsfromtheRightSectornationalistmovementand
paramilitarypolice,Ukrainianmediareported.UkrainiannationalistshavelongbeenagitatingforanenergyblockadeofCrimeato
exertpressureontheformerUkrainianterritory.
RussianstatemediareportedthattheenergyministryhadofferedtohelpfixthelinesbutwasrejectedbytheUkrainianauthorities,
whosaidtheycouldfixtheproblemthemselves.Theemergenciesministryhascreatedateamof3,000employeesand1,000
piecesofequipmenttofacilitatedailylivinginCrimea,thedeputyhead,AlexanderChupriyan,said.Hewarnedthatthepower
outagecouldcontinueforalongtime.
MikhailSheremet,firstdeputypremierofCrimea,saidthepeninsulacouldonlysupplyhalfitspowerneedsatmostusingdiesel
generatorsandrenewablesourcessuchaswindandsolarpower,theTassstatenewsagencyreported.Crimeaexperienced
severaltotalpowercutslastwinter,attributedbytheauthoritiestorepairsandtechnicalproblemsbutseenbyresidentsas
deliberatepressurefromUkraine.
RussiaplanstobuildtwopowerstationsinCrimeathatwouldburngaspipedfromthemainland,butthesearestillattheplanning
stage.Officialssaidtherewasenoughfueltokeepthegas-anddiesel-poweredgeneratorsrunning.
Crimeaprovidesonly30%ofitsownenergy,accordingtotheregionalgovernment,anddependsonUkraineformuchofits
electricitysupplies.
Subject:Crimeapowerblackouthitseconomyasworkersstayhome-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,AylaBakkalli<aylabakkalli@yahoo.com>
Crimeapowerblackouthitseconomyasworkers
stayhome
AFPCrimea'scapitalSimferopolwasplungedintodarkness
OnlyessentialservicesandgovernmentofficesareoperatinginCrimeaafterkeyelectricitypylons
connectedtothepeninsulawereknockeddowninUkraine,causingamajorblackout.
MostofCrimea'stwomillionpeoplehavebeenhitbythepowercut.Therearealsosomewatershortages.
Anti-Russianactivistswereblamedforthecut.RussianforcesannexedCrimeainMarch2014,duringUkraine's
crisis.
PublictransportisstillrunningandCrimeanhospitalsareusinggenerators.
AstateofemergencywasimposedinCrimeaonSundayaftertwomorekeypylonsweredamaged-bringingthe
totaltofour.Mondaywasdeclaredanon-workingday.
ItisstillnotclearhowexactlythepylonsweredamagedinKherson,aUkrainianregionadjacenttoCrimea.That
regionhasbeentensesinceRussia'sannexationofCrimea-anactthatwascondemnedinternationally.
CrimeanTataractivists,denyingrepairworkersaccesstothedamagedpowerlines,suggestedthattheweakened
pylonswereblowndownbythewind.
ButUkraine'sstateenergycompany,Ukrenergo,saidthedamagewascausedby"shellingortheuseofexplosive
devices".
ATatarsymbolwastiedaroundadamagedpyloninKherson
RussiahasblamedUkrainiannationalistsfromfar-rightpartyRightSectoraswellasCrimeanTataractivists,callingit
"anactofterrorism".
EarlierthisyearthoseactivistgroupspreventedfoodlorriescrossingintoCrimea.
Theblackouthasknockedoutstreetlightingandcutcableandmobileinternet.Ithasalsoforcedtheclosureofsome
150schools.
ACrimeanTataractivisttoldUkraine'sTVnewsbroadcaster112UkrayinathatRussiamustrelease"political
prisoners"andlettheirleaderMustafaDzhemilevreturntoCrimeainexchangeforrepairstothepowerlines.
ButlaterMrDzhemilev,leaderoftheCrimeanTatarNationalMovement,toldBBCUkrainianthathissupporters
wouldgrantrepairworkersaccesstothepowerlines."IthinkthatCrimeawillhaveelectricitysoon",hesaid.
Emergencytimetable
CrimeanTataractivistsaccuseRussiaofabusingTatarrightsanddenyingthemavoicesinceapro-Moscow
governmentwasinstalledinCrimea.
ImagesonsocialmediashowUkrainianflagsonsomedamagedpylons-andCrimeanTatarflagsonothers.
AnelectricalshopinSimferopolisamongmanybusinessestemporarilyshutdownbytheemergency
CrimeanauthoritiessaidtheyhadmanagedtopartiallyreconnectthecitiesofSimferopol,YaltaandSevastopolusing
generators.
Only30%ofCrimea'selectricityisgeneratedlocally-therestcomesfromUkraine,Russia'sgovernmentdaily
RossiiskayaGazetareported.
Emergencypower-savingmeasureshavebeenimposed:Sevastopolisgettingthreehours'supply,followedbyasix-
hourcutinSimferopolresidentshavethree-hourpowercutsthreetimesaday.
Ukrainianauthoritiessaidtheyencounteredactivistsblockadingthesitewhentheytriedtorepairthedamagedpylons.
Thepowercutisthreateningfoodoutletswhichrelyoncoldstorageandlackgeneratingcapacity.
Ahospitalworkersaidtheelectricitywassufficienttokeepwardswarmbutnottopowerhotplates,sopatients
wereonlygettingcoldfood.
Subject:ClaimofUkrainianweaponssaletoISISpromptsdenials,alarm
BTW,theNobelPrizesforGullibility.....goto.
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/claim-of-ukrainian-weapons-sale-to-isis-prompts-denials-alarm-402511.html
From:GFR
Subject:ReadandWipe
To:<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
NOTE:
"Similar contradictions as Ambassador Ford noted are blatant in the case of Ukraine where containment
and encirclement US policies are bound to backfire in the absence of a political solution or ideological
foundation rooted in democratic principles rather than political opportunism intended for short-term
geopolitical and economic gains. Supporting neo-Nazis among other heterogeneous elements in the
Ukraine against the Russian-backed separatist elements is not merely a manifestation of an
incoherent foreign policy filled with contradictions and aimlessness for the democratic West, it
also reveals Washingtons desperate anachronistic Cold War solutions to 21st century problems
amid the slow decline of the US in relationship to China."
Creating"Terrorism":TheWesternQuestForSociopolitical
ConformityAndImperialism
ByJonKofas
21November,2015
Countercurrents.org
Introduction:IsterrorismIdeologically-Motivated?
Governments,politicians,themedia,andacademicsdefinetheterm
terrorisminaccordancewiththeirpoliticalaims.Similarly,those
engagedinunconventionalmethodsofwarfare(guerrillawar)havetheir
owndefinitionoftheiractivitiesthattheywoulddefineasfreedom
strugglefromsomeoppressor(s).Althoughthetermterrorbecame
popularduringtheFrenchRevolutionwhenMaximilenRobespierreand
Saint-Just(September1793untilJuly1794)unleashedacampaignknown
asTheReignofTerror,itwastheactivitiesoflate19thcentury
anarchistsinRussiaandEuropethattargetedpublicofficialsfor
assassinationasapoliticalstatementabouttheneedforpoliticaland
socialchange.
Actsofviolenceagainstinnocentciviliansnotpublicofficials-eitheras
collateraldamageordeliberatelyacceleratedinthe20thcenturybynon-
statesponsoredgroupsrangingfromtheextremerighttotheextremeleft
withtheintentionofmakingapoliticalstatement.Onecouldarguethat
theKuKluxKlanclearlycarriedoutactsofterrorwiththecooperationof
thecriminaljusticesystem(fromthesherifftothecourtsand
DepartmentofJustice).Similarly,actsofterrorhavebeensponsored
overtlyandcovertlybystates,andifoneconsidersthatthevastmajority
ofpeoplekilledinwarsareindeedcivilians,thebiggestsponsorofterror
isthestatesimplybecauseithasatitsdisposalthemeansfororganized
massdestructionthatsmallgroupssimplydonothave.Forexample,the
ThirdReichcarriedouttheholocaustbecauseithasthemeanstoso,asit
hadthemeanstoengageallofEurope,RussiaandUSinaglobalwar.
Yet,politicians,mediaandacademicsattributelegitimacytomass
killingsandexpressrageatsmallscaleindividualassassinationsby
terrorists.
Thetopicofterrorismhasbeenanalyzedtothepointofabsurdity.Yet,
despitesuchplethoraofliterature,EuropeanandUSpoliticianspromise
tobringyetanotherplantoendterrorismwhichhasbeenrisingever
sincetheUSlaunchedwaronterrorinOctober2001.AGooglesearch
withtermsterrorismyieldsalmost100millionresultsfighting
terrorismyields720,000resultsandendingterrorismyieldscloseto
45,000results.AnAmazonbooksearchwiththewordterrorismyields
39,640resultsonthetopic,whilefightingterrorismyields574results
andendingterrorism21.Thesedonotincludetheconfidentialstudies
byvariousagenciesofgovernmentsandconsultingfirmsworkingforfees
toprovideyetanothersolutiontoaproblemthatonlygrowsastime
passesandwillcontinuetogrowinwhathasbecomeathrivingindustry
paralleltopoliceandmilitaryoperations.
Whyisterrorism,astheUSanditsEUalliesdefineit,namelyIslamic-
inspiredgroupsorganizedinafighttocombatwhattheyregardasevil
regimesintheMiddleEast,theWest,AfricaandAsia,soprominentsince
theendoftheColdWar?Afterlookingatsomeoftheliteratureonthe
subject,onecouldarguethattheunderlyingcauseisideological,religious
dogmatismandculturalowingtoaclashofcivilizationstoborrowthat
favoriteconservativeandliberalWesternclichwithunderlyingracist
themesnotbytheauthorSamuelHuntingtonwhocameupwiththe
conceptbutonthepartofthoseinterpretingit.Theconservativesofthe
late18thandearly19thcenturyarguedpreciselyalongthesamelinesas
modernconservativesblamingideologywhentheytriedtoexplainwhy
theFrenchRevolutiontookplace.Similarly,conservativeandliberalsof
the20thcenturyarguedthatideologicalpoisoningofthemindsofrebels
droveRussianstobacktheBolsheviks,theChinesetobackMaoandthe
CubanstosupportFidel.
Ifyouareconservative,theonlymotivationofleftistrebelsorjihadist
terroristsattheotherendoftheideologicalspectrumisideological,
devoidofoppressivesocial,economicandpoliticalconditions,devoidofa
sensethatforeignpowerscompromisehomelandsnationalsovereignty.
AllonehastodotobecomeaJihadistterroristorforthatmattera
Marxistrebelistohaveideologicalexposureandthatwouldsufficeto
pickupaweaponandfightforthecausebecauseareligiousorsecular
ideologycallsforchangeinthestatusquo.Clearly,thisnaveperspective
fliesinthefaceofempiricalrealitywhenweexaminethatthepeoplewho
joinajihadiststruggledosobecausetheyaredrivenbydesperationof
theirlivescausedbytheirgovernmentandsocialelites(asisthecasein
muchofsub-SaharaAfrica),byaforeigngovernment(s)andforeign
corporations,orinstigatedandsupportedbycounter-insurgency
operationsofforeigngovernments(ashasbeenthecaseinSyria).
Religiousdogma,ideology,andcultureplayaroleinsofarastheyjustify
theirpositionandprovideacoherentwaytoarticulatethecauseand
placeitintoalargerperspective.Otherwisetheywouldmerelybesharp
shootersonthehunttotakedowninnocentpeopletoproveapolitical
point.Socioeconomicandpoliticaldomesticconditionsandexternal
interventionintendedtocontrolthroughlocalthecountrythroughlocal
elitesareattherootoftheproblemdrivingpeopletorebelsandunless
theseareaddressed,terrorismwillcontinuetoevolveandexpandfrom
onegrouptothenext.ListeningtoWesternpoliticiansonewouldassume
thattheywanttoendterrorism,althougheverythingtheyhavebeen
doing,notsaying,pointsthattheywantevenmoreterrorism.
Therearetwomainreasonswhyterrorismservesthestatusquoofthe
countriesostensiblyundertakinganti-terrorpolicies,althoughinreality
theyarepromotingterrorismonehastodowithdomesticaffairsandthe
secondwithforeignpolicy.
1.Acultureoffearcultivatedbypoliticians,themedia,andbusinessesto
engenderconformitytotheinstitutionalstructureisoneofthereasons
thatterrorismisconstantlypresentedasanexistentialthreatwhenin
realitytheaveragepersonhasamuchgreaterchanceofdyinginacar
accidentorbygun-violenceinthestreetsoftheUSorEurope.Ifpeople
acceptterrorismastherealnationalsecurityissueratherthansocial
justice,civilrights,extremesocioeconomicinequality,andapolitical
systeminclusiveofallpeopleandjustthetoptenpercentofthe
wealthiesttothedetrimentofthemajority,thenthesocialcontractand
statusquoremainunchanged.
2.Policiesofmilitarismandcovertoperationstodestabilizeregimesfor
thepurposeofgaininggeopoliticaladvantageandeconomicimperialism
isanotherreasontouseterrorismasthepretext,andinfacttocreateand
perpetuateit.DuringtheColdWar,theUSusedCommunismasan
existentialthreattoimposeitsroleastheworldspolicemanandexpand
economically,whileengenderingconformityathomeamidaquasi-
apartheidregimethatkeptminoritiesonthemarginsofsociety.TheCold
Warisoverandterrorismsimplytookitsplace,especiallysincetheUS-
EUeffortstorecreatetheColdWarwithRussiaovertheUkrainehave
turnedoutadismalfailureinthelasttwoyears.NotthatthewarinIraq
andAfghanistanaimedtoendterrorismworkedmuchbetter,andwe
mustjudgepolicybyresultsaloneandnotpopulistrhetoricandexcuses.
Inthelastanalysisaforeignpolicyrootedinimperialismcannotbe
justifiedunlessithasanEVILenemytoblameandforthepublictofear
andthisiswhereterrorismfitsinsowell.
HumanNatureandTerrorism
Peoplearenotbornterroristsanymorethantheyareimperialists
advocatingeconomic,politicalandstrategichegemonythatviolates
nationalsovereigntywiththeintenttosubjugateandexploit.Institutional
structurescreateterrorismasmuchasimperialismandthetwoare
intertwinedinmodernhistory,atleastfromthelate19thcenturywhen
Europeanimperialistswereusingconventionalmilitaryforceto
perpetuatetheirsubjugationoverthepeopleofAfricaandAsia(India,
China,Sudan,SouthAfrica,Philippines,tomentionjustafew).
IntheaftermathoftheIrishfamineintheaftermathoftheRevolutionsof
1848,theIrishstruggleforindependencethroughvariousorganizations
FenianBrotherhoodandIrishRepublicanBrotherhoodisindicativeof
militantsemployingunconventionalmeanstofightagainstBritish
imperialists.Similarly,therewerearmedanti-colonialstrugglesthatthe
BritishlabeledterroristintheSudanandEgypt(1880s-1890s)aswellas
SouthernAfrica,NigeriaandGhana.Paralleltotheanti-imperialist
strugglesinthenon-WesternWorld,therewerealsoterroristactivities
withintheWest,fromRussiatoEuropeandUSundertakenprimarilyby
anarchistswhobelievedthattargetedattacksonhigh-profilepublic
officialswouldpublicizetheircauseforsocialjusticeandbringabout
systemicchange.
Grantedittakesacertaintypeofpersonalitytoengageinunconventional
warfare,buttheaveragepersonisnotbynaturepronetokillinginnocent
civiliansforthesakeofrevengeandpublicityanymorethantheyare
interestedinmasskillingsthroughthelawfulcoverofagovernmentair
forceorarmy.Humanbeingswithinthecontextofaninstitutional
structurecanbecomepartofamasskillingmachine(armedforces),as
theycanjustaseasilybecomeinvolvedinterrorism,whichismerelyan
unconventionalformofwarbutlackinglegitimacy.Justasmanyofthose
engagedinconventionalwarcombatarementallyunstableifnot
sociopathsasthereareterroristswhoarejustasmentallyunbalanced.
However,aftertheParisbombing,oneoftheISISorISILoperativesthat
defectedexplainedtotheauthoritiesthereasonspeopleatthegrassroots
gravitatetowardthejihadistorganizationismainlyendemicpovertyin
SyriathatdidnotexistbeforetheUS,WesternandTurkish-Arab-backed
rebelmovement.
Evenwithallthedeathsandinjuriesthatterrorismhascreated,itis
estimatedthatinthe20thcenturybetween165millionand175million
peoplewerekilledinconventionalwarswheremostofthevictimsare
indeedcivilians.Howmanywerekilledbyterrorisminthelast100
years?Therearenoprecisestatistics,buttheynumberintothetensof
thousandsandnothundredsofmillions.EvenPresidentObamapointed
outinoneofhisspeechesthatterrorismhaskilledafewthousand
Americansinthelasttwodecades,whereasgunviolencehaseliminated
closeto350,000.
Infact,accordingtotheHeritageFoundation:From1969to2009,
almost5,600peoplelosttheirlivesandmorethan16,300people
sufferedinjuriesduetointernationalterrorismdirectedattheUnited
States.(http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2011/05/terror-
trends-40-years-data-on-international-and-domestic-terrorism).
AccordingtotheNewYorkTimes,from1968tothepresent,more
AmericanshavebeenkilledbygunviolencethaninallUSwars
combined.
(http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/aug/27/nicholas-
kristof/more-americans-killed-guns-1968-all-wars-says-colu/)
Despitethesestatistics,theUSmedia,politiciansandpunditsincessantly
perpetuateacultureoffear,projectingtheimpressionthattheaverage
citizenisthreatenedbyterrorismwheninfacttheaveragecitizenislikely
todiebygunviolenceinthehandsofsomementallyillorenraged
individual.Moreover,themedia,punditsandpoliticiansneverpointout
thatconventionalwarskillonamassivescale,thatgunviolenceisareal
existentialthreat,whileterrorismactivities,asreprehensibleand
loathsomeastheyare,killveryfewbycomparisonbecauseofthenature
oftheoperations.Nordotheyeveraddresstheunderlyingcausesof
terrorism,preferringinsteadtocultivateracistattitudesthatasegmentof
thepublicentertainsaboutMuslimsnomatterwhotheyare.
Realistically,isitpossibletostopterroristattacksinEuropeandtheUS,
usingmodernintelligenceandpolicemethods?
Ifitwerepossibletostopterroristattacks,whyhasitnothappenedsince
9/11,especiallywiththeinstitutionalizationofananti-terrorismvirtual
policestateintheUSthatsharesintelligencewithitsallies?Itis
completelyunderstandablethattheaveragepersoncriesoutforthe
governmenttojuststopterrorism,justastheycriedoutinthe1980sSay
NotoDrugsandthegovernmentdeclaredwarondrugs.HastheUS
wonthewarondrugs,awarthroughwhichmanybanksweremaking
immenseprofitslaunderingdrugmoney?AccordingtoHuffington:Bank
ofAmerica,WesternUnion,andJPMorgan,areamongtheinstitutions
allegedlyinvolvedinthedrugtrade.Meanwhile,HSBChasadmittedits
launderingrole,andevadedcriminalprosecutionbypayingafineof
almost$2billion.Thelackofimprisonmentofanybankersinvolvedis
indicativeofthehypocriticalnatureofthedrug
war.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/avinash-tharoor/banks-cartel-
money-laundering_b_4619464.html
Unlikeconventionalwarsbetweencountrieswithspecifictargetsand
throughconventionalmeans,terrorismisdispersedthroughoutthe
planetinmorethanone-thirdofthecountries.Immediatelyafterthe
Parisbombing,cameahitinnorthernNigeriabyBokoHaram,the
militantIslamicgroupactiveinNigeria,Niger,Cameroon,andChad.
Althoughthemediahardlydevotedanycoveragetoitbecausethevictims
werenotWesterners,theorganizationhasbeenactivesince2002.Isthe
waronterrorgoingtoeliminateBokoHaramaswellasNorthernMali
wherepro-al-QaedaIslamicrebelstookhostageson20November2015
justastheWestmakingpromisestoendterrorism?Iftherearean
estimate41countrieswithIslamicrebelsassomereportsindicate,where
exactlywouldtheUSanditsalliesbegintoendterrorismonaworldscale
withmorethanone-and-a-halfbillionMuslimsandgrowingatmuch
fasterratesthananyotherreligiousgroup?
ImmediatelyaftertheParisbombing,Chinaaskedforpoliticalsupportto
crushitsownmilitantMuslims,justasRussiademandedthatitsanti-
jihadistcampaignisjustified.BesidesgoingafterMuslimsinsouthern
Xinjiang,spreadingfear,repression,andviolence,theChinese
governmentalsohasbeenfightingtheUyghurmilitantsinthewestern
regionwhowanttocreateanindependentEastTurkestan.Arethe
Chineserepressingtheminoritiesoftheircountryandignoringhuman
rights,oraretheyfightingterrorism?IstheUSinterestedinhelping
Chinafightitsdomesticterrorists,orisitonlyinterestinginChina
backingUSeffortstodethronethepro-RussianAssadinSyriaandfight
againstselectjihadistsinSyriaandIraq?
Wheredoesthisabsurdgameofthewaronterrorbeginandwheredoes
itendinthe41countrieswithIslamicmilitants?DoestheWesternwaron
terrorstayfocusedonwhattheUSandEUwant,doesitincludewhat
RussiaandChinawant,doesitgofarthertoincludeAfricaandIndia?
Whodecides,whocarriesoutthesecostlycampaignsandwheredoesit
stopconsideringthenatureofterrorismisunconventionalandthenext
doorneighborcouldbeonedocarryoutanactdespiteRussian,US,and
Frenchplanesbombingspecifictargets.Onereasonthatpresidential
candidateHillaryClintonruledouttroopsonthegroundinSyria(19
November2015)isbecausesheknowsitwillendinpolitical,militaryand
economicfailurefortheUS,whilealienatingifnotradicalizingMuslims
acrosstheworld.
Ontheeveofthe13thanniversaryof9/11,presidentObamaaskedthe
AmericanpeopletosupporthiswaronISISoperatinginpartsofSyria
andIraq.IfwelookattherebelgroupsoperatinginSyriaagainstAssad
justtwoyearsago,thereweremorethan1000andnumberedroughly
100,000.Brokendown,however,wearestruckthattheyareeitherISIS,
al-Qaeda,pro-ISISorpro-al-Qaeda(al-NusraFront),withveryfewthat
arewithneitherISISnoral-Qaeda.Inotherwords,wherearethe
elementsforestablishingapro-Westmoderatedemocraticregimeinthis
country?Evenifafewofthemamidtheirstruggleprofesspro-US,pro-
Westleanings,whatguaranteesaretherethattheywillnotturnonthe
Westjustasdidal-QaedathattheUSassistedinthe1980sduringthewar
againsttheUSSRinAfghanistan,ormorerecentlyISISinthewaragainst
Syria.
Inhisspeechonthe13thanniversaryof9/11,Obamastated:This
counterterrorismcampaignwillbewagedthroughasteady,relentless
efforttotakeoutISILwherevertheyexistusingourairpowerandour
supportforpartnerforcesontheground.Whathehadinmindwas
dronewarfarethatmanyorganizationsandgovernmentshave
condemnedascausingindiscriminatedamageandkillingfarmore
innocentciviliansthanrebelsinAfghanistan,Pakistan,Yemen,Somalia
andothercountries.Forthiskindofwarthathasprovedcontroversial,if
notawarcrime,Obamaisaskingthesupportofthepeople,knowingfull
wellveryfewwoulddaretocriticizeanykindofwaragainstterrorism.
ClintonsupportsthisaswellandmanyRepublicanswouldhavethe
marineslandinSyriabecausetherecordshowsthatthingsworkedoutso
wellinIraqandAfghanistan!
TheObamapolicyisinessencearehashedBushpolicywithdronesand
covertoperationsthroughvariouslocalagents.Willthisachieveitsgoal,
orcreatemoreterrorismwhichistheunspokengoalbecauseitservesthe
political,economicanddiplomatic(balanceofpower)interestsoftheUS?
Theonlythingthatmattersisthatthepresidentandthegovernment
projectanimageofstrengthidentifiedwithmilitaryactionthatmakes
AmericansfeelsaferathomeandperhapsputthefearofGodin
Americasenemies.RightwingersandofcourseIsraelanditsAmerican
supportersbelievethatAmericamustdomoremilitarilytoteach
terroristsalesson-nodoubtalessonthatwouldonlycreatemore
terrorismasithasinthelastfifteenyears.Realityisnotimportantfor
thesepeopledrivenbyideology,racism,politicalopportunism,and
defenseindustrylobbyinginfluence.Theimageprojectedthroughthe
mediathattheyarefightingterrorismistheonlythingthatmatters.
IsHomelandSecurityrecollectionofdatafromallserversthebest
alternativetointerceptfutureattacksoraretheyotherwaystogetthejob
donemoreefficiently?
Itisincumbentuponanygovernmenttoprotectitscitizensfromthreats
domesticandforeign,whileworkingwithintheconstitutionalandlegal
framework.TheestablishmentofHomelandSecurityhasviolatedthe
constitutional(FourthAmendment-prohibitsunreasonablesearchesand
seizuresandrequiresanywarranttobejudiciallysanctionedand
supportedbyprobablecause)andlegalframework(openrecordslaw)as
wenowknowasaresultoftheEdwardSnowdenrevelations,whileithas
notdeterredterrorismonaglobalscale,althoughithashelpedtodeterit
uptoadegreedomestically.HomelandSecurityprojectstheimagethatit
isthesolutiontoaproblem.Moreover,HomelandSecurityisinessencea
pretexttostrengthenthepolicestatethattheUShasbecomesothatit
canjustifythecontinuationofthedyingPaxAmericanaandneoliberal
policiesthatcontinuetoweakenthesocialfabricathome.
Thekeyquestioniswhethertherehasbeenanincreaseordecreaseof
terrorisminthelastthirteenyearsthattheUShasbeenengagedinthis
globalcampaignatanenormouscosttotheUStaxpayersbycreating
HomelandSecurity.AccordingtotheNationalConsortiumfortheStudy
ofTerrorismandResponsestoTerrorism(START)(Universityof
Maryland),terrorismincreasedinAsia,Africa,MiddleEastandona
globalscale.Manyhavereachedtheconclusionthatthewaronterror
feedsterrorismanditsincreasethroughouttheworld.Othersnotethat
theUSanditsalliesengagedinformalwaragainstterrorismkilling
thousandsofinnocentcivilians,injuringandmanymoremillionsof
displacedandimpoverishedpeoplethathavebecomerefugees.
TheHomelandSecurityfixisinlargemeasureanextensionofthe
military-industrialcomplexintendedtodishoutcontractstoprivate
companiesandtomaintaintheUSaquasi-policestate.Theideathat
moreandbettertechnologyisthesolutionisitselfanextensionofsuch
thinkingtodishoutbillionsoftaxpayerdollarstohightechcompaniesso
thatgovernmentcouldthenarguethatitprovidessecuritywheninfactit
isworkinghardtocreateinsecuritiesandstimulateevenmoreterrorism
thanwenowhavearoundtheworld.Onthesurface,thismayindeed
seemabsurd,butitmakessenseifexaminedfromtheperspectiveofthe
veryinfluentialcorporateintereststhathavearoleinpolicymakingand
wantnothingbetterthanmoregovernmentcontractsfortheircompanies
andthepublicsfocusonterrorismratherthanraisingtheminimumwage
andraisinglivingstandards.
HomelandSecurityplaysintothehandsofrightwingideologues,racists
andxenophobeswhatwantstrictimmigrationlaws,appliedina
discriminatorymanner,allinthenameofnationalsecurity.EvenObama
ridiculedtheideathatathree-yearSyrianorphanposesathreatto
rightwingxenophobeswhodonotwantMuslimscomingtotheUS.
Francehasalreadydecidednottocavetorightwingpressuresonthis
issueandtoaccept30,000refugeesinthenexttwoyearsasagreedwith
GermanyanditsEUpartners.TheFrenchgovernmentdidnotcavetothe
neo-FascistNationalFrontPartyledbyMarine.Migrantsbringfilth,
crime,povertyandIslamicterrorism,Ms.LePenhassuggestedinrecent
weeksadeadmigrantchildsphotowassimplyaploytomanipulate
Europeanfeelingsofguilt.Franceisabouttobesubmergedina
terrifyingwaveofmigrantswhorepresentonlya
burden.http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/06/world/europe/for-
marine-le-pen-migration-is-a-ready-made-issue.html?_r=0
LedbythepopulistbillionaireTrump,theUSRepublicanpresidential
candidateshavetakenahardlineonimmigrantstowintherightwing
vote.ThattheRepublican-ledUSHouseofRepresentativespassed
xenophobicimmigrationreformblatantlyracistafewdaysaftertheParis
bombingisindicativeofthedirectionthatasegmentofthepoliticalelites
aretakingthepublic.Peoplearelookingforascapegoatinthetragedyof
SyrianmigrantsthattheUSanditsalliescausedinthefirstplaceby
destabilizingAssad.HavingabsolutelynothingtoshowforUSdirectand
indirectoperationsinSyria,largelybecauseRussia,ChinaandIranwould
notcaveintoUSpressures,thesolutionisracistandxenophobic
legislationagainstthevictimsofthewartheUSanditsalliescaused.
IfterroristsdetonatedanuclearbombinsideamajorcityinEuropeor
theUS,wouldgovernmentsconsideranexterminationrampage,
includingtheexpulsionofMuslimsinwesterncountries?
Terroristscanonlyobtainnuclearweaponsfromgovernments,whereas
conventionalweaponsaresoldbycommercialvendorsfortherightprice.
AccordingtotheUKpaperTheDailyMail:Isisareusingsignificant
quantitiesofUS-madeweaponstospreadtheirreignofterroracrossthe
MiddleEast,accordingtoanewreport.ThisfindingcamefromLondon-
basedresearchgroupConflictArmamentResearch(CAR)afterit
conductedon-the-groundinvestigationsinIraqandSyria.Itsbeen
knownforawhilethatIsishasbeenusingU.Smilitaryhardware,but
CARsstudyisthefirstbyanon-governmentbodytotryanddocumentin
detailwhathardwaretheterroristgroup,alsoknownastheIslamicState
(IS),isdeploying.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-
2749197/ISIS-arming-US-military-hardware-wage-jihad-Middle-East-
seizing-weapons-Syrian-rebels-Iraqi-soldiers.html#ixzz3s20D4JCz
Justasterroriststodayobtainarms,trucks,andallkindsofsuppliesas
wellasmoneyfromgovernmentsandbusinessmen,similarlytheonly
waytosecureanuclearweaponwouldbefromoneofthenuclearclub
states.JustasISIShadbeenreceivingdirectandindirectsupportof
variouskindsfromthecountriesImentionedabove,includingtheUSand
UKlargelyresponsibleforitsgrowthandexpansion,similarlyfuture
terroristorganizationswouldenjoythesameprivilege.IfIsrael,Pakistan,
India,France,UKortheUSwantstocreatehavocintheMiddleEast,
givingjihadistsanuclearbombwouldachievethegoal.However,theroot
causeoftheproblemwouldbethegovernmentthatprovidedthenuclear
weapon.
Thisisextremelyunlikelyandonlyascenarioofrightwingpropaganda
wehavecometoexpectnotjustfromFOXNEWSthatISISparticularly
enjoysbecauseitservesitsgoalstorecruitandretainrebelsand
supporters,butmainstreammediapropagandaintendedtocultivatethe
cultureoffearamongthepublic.Itisjustanotherinaseriesofmythsso
thatpeoplearenotfocusedontheirimmediatelives,onrepayingthe
collegedebt,havinggovernmentraisetheminimumwageabovethe
povertyline,providingaffordablehousing,copskillingblackteenagers
everydayandjustifyingonthebasisoflawandorder.Nuclearbomb
threatscanonlycomefromthenuclearclubthathasthemandonlyif
oneoftheclubmemberswishestosinktheworldintochaoswouldwe
seeanuclearbombinthehandsofrebelgroups.
HasthemoderateMuslimworlddoneenoughtostopterroristnetworks
orcouldtheydoabetterjobtohelppreventattacks?
WhatisthemoderateMuslimWorldandwhoexactlydeterminesthe
criteria?IsitSaudiArabia,KuwaitandtheGulfStatesthathaveahistory
offinancingmilitantjihadists,includingISISwhilecloselyallying
themselveswiththeUS?Isitpro-USEgyptthatfailedtoprotectthe
RussianplanefromanISISbomb?IsitPakistanthathasbeenaUS
strategicsatelliteunderthegunandallalongplayingallsidesfromthe
ChinesetotheTaliban?IsitIraqandLibyathattheUSanditsalliesleft
inshamblesandcausedtherefugeeproblem?
Letusassumeforthesakeofargumentthattheanti-IslamistEgyptian
governmentconstitutesmoderatebecauseUStheArabdictatorshipsin
theGulfandIsraelfavorit.WhywasISISabletoplantasimplesodapop-
bombtobringdowntheRussianplaneandkill224passengers?Inthe
absenceofcooperationontheground,terroristattacksarenotpossibleat
anairport,andcooperationonthegroundmeansthatthereareenough
peoplesympathetictothejihadistcause.
ConsideringthattheonlystableandstrongMiddleEastIslamicregimeis
Iran,whichhasbeenwillingtocooperatewiththeUStocontainSunni
jihadists,doesWashingtonwantIrantoplaythepreeminentroleinthe
regionalbalanceofpower?DoesIranfitinwithWashingtonsbroader
goalsofperpetuallydestabilizingtheMiddleEastandusingIsraeltohelp
out?ConsideringthewaninginfluenceoftheUSintheregionagainstthe
realityofChinasrisingeconomicroleintheworld,Russiashistoricties
withcertaincountrieslikeSyria,Iransdominantregionalrole,why
woulddestabilizationnotmakesensesinceIsraelwantstheexactsame
thingastheWashington?
WhywouldMuslimgovernmentstakecomfortfromUSpolicyof
destabilizingandoverthrowingMiddleEast-NorthAfricanregimesso
thatitcouldexertpreeminenteconomic,militaryandstrategicinfluence
whenintheprocesschaosistheonlyresult?EvenifMuslimswantto
supporttheUSwaragainstISIS,howcantheydosowhentheUShasa
longhistoryofacrusadingforeignpolicytowardMuslimcountries,
exemptingthemoreauthoritarianSaudiArabiaandGulfStatesthathave
beenfundingISIS,whilestrikingselectivelyatregimesthattheUSwants
replaced.EvenaftertheParistragedy,theUSgoalremainstooverthrow
Assadandreplacehimwithapro-USpuppetinsteadofonebeholdento
RussiaandIran.
Assumingthereis100%popularandpoliticalsupportforObamas
versionoftheBushanti-terrorismpolicy,oreventheRepublicanversion
ofrevisitingtheIraqmodelofwarandoccupationinSyria,canthisbring
thedesiredgoalintofruition,orisitmerelyanotherpublicrelationsploy
onthepartofbothDemocratandRepublicanpoliticianswhocannotdeal
effectivelywithdomesticproblemslikeadecliningmiddleclassanda
massivepublicdebt?
Conclusions
DoUSpoliciesincreaseterrorismratherthandecreasingitasthe
governmentclaims?Wemustassumethatpolicymakersareverysmart
peoplewithexperiencewhoalsorelyonoutsideconsultantstoformulate
policy.Whilethiswouldbeasafeassumption,itisnotassafetovouchfor
theirmentalstability,theirblindingideologicalframeofmind,and
career-basedopportunismthattakeprecedenceovereverythingelse
fromhumanrightstosocialjustice.
Itissafetoassumethatthoseinpolicymaking,politicians,pundits,and
themediabelievethesameformulathatworkedinbringingdownthe
Communistblocwouldworkonendingterrorism,regardlessofthe
realitythatCommunistswereorganizedinstatesandemployed
conventionalmethodsjustasthoseopposingthem.Finally,itissafeto
assumethatthemoreastuteapologistsofthebogusanti-terrorism
industrythattheUShascreatedrealizeitisdoomedtofailandinfactto
bringaboutanincreaseinterrorism.
IwashardlysurprisedtoseearecentCNNreportclaimingthatISISloves
Westernmediabecauseitplaysintoitspropagandagoals.Theyare
especiallyappreciativeofFOXNEWSthatconstantlypreacheswarwith
Islamandbootsontheground,thusjustifyingthecallofISIStorecruit
Muslimstodefendtheirlandandtheirfaith.Absurdityslimitsdonot
stopwithJihadiststhattheWestpraiseswhentheyareinvolvedin
topplingaregimethattheUSopposesLibyaorSyria,forexample-but
baptizesterroristswhentheycarryoutpoliticalactsofviolenceagainst
Westernorpro-Westerntargets.
BecauseofsuchblatantabsurditiesinUSforeignpolicyrevealthe
ultimateinirrational,unconscionablesheerpoliticalopportunismand
totalabsenceofanymoralfoundation,RobertFord,formerUS
AmbassadortoSyria,hadwarnedthatUSpolicyassistinganti-Assad
Islamicmilitantswouldresultintheriseofterrorismthatcould
potentiallytouchUSinterests.AmbassadorFordnotedtheexampleof
Afghanistaninthe1980swhentheUStrainedJihadiststhatwould
eventuallyturnintoal-Qaeda.
SimilarcontradictionsasAmbassadorFordnotedareblatantinthecase
ofUkrainewherecontainmentandencirclementUSpoliciesareboundto
backfireintheabsenceofapoliticalsolutionorideologicalfoundation
rootedindemocraticprinciplesratherthanpoliticalopportunism
intendedforshort-termgeopoliticalandeconomicgains.Supportingneo-
NazisamongotherheterogeneouselementsintheUkraineagainstthe
Russian-backedseparatistelementsisnotmerelyamanifestationofan
incoherentforeignpolicyfilledwithcontradictionsandaimlessnessfor
thedemocraticWest,italsorevealsWashingtonsdesperate
anachronisticColdWarsolutionsto21stcenturyproblemsamidtheslow
declineoftheUSinrelationshiptoChina.
Onecouldarguethatthereisnogreatermachineofterrorthanthestate
thathasatitsdisposalthemassivemeansofthepoliceandmilitaryto
inflictmassivedamage,asInotedintheintroduction.Itisalso
noteworthytopointoutthatterrorizinganentirenationcanbecarried
outbynon-militarymechanisms,suchastheIMFrepresentingfinance
capitalhasatitsdisposalwhenimposingausterityandimpoverishesand
bankruptsmillionsofpeoplewithinaremarkablyshortperiod.Finally,
thereisalsothephenomenonofcorporateterrorism,mostprominently
demonstratedinColombiawhereUS-basedcorporationswerehiring
deathsquadstoassassinateandintimidatethepeasants.
AccordingtotheUN,andhumanrightsorganizations,leftwingkillings
carriedoutinColombiahaveaccountedfor12%ofclash-relatedfatalities,
whilerightwingparamilitarydeathsaccountfor80%,raisingthe
questionofwhoisbehindright-wingdeathsquadsandforwhatpurpose.
Similarly,thevastmajorityofdisappearancesandkidnappingsare
attributedtorightwingparamilitarygroupsthatareatthecoreofhuman
rightsviolationsinvariablyignoredbytheColombiangovernmentandthe
USthathashistoricallyclosetieswithColombia.Accordingtoanumber
ofpresreportsandhumanrightsorganizations,CocaColaBottling,
ChiquitaBananaandDrummondminingoperationsarethreecompanies
thathaveinthepastfinancedrightwingparamilitaryoperationsresulting
inkillings,disappearancesandpersecutionoftradeunionists,labor
organizersandleftistactivists.TheGermanTVnetworkDeutscheWella
recentlyranalongdocumentaryonthisissue,focusingmostlyon
DrummondanditsroleinColombia.Thiswastakingplaceduringthe
secondtermoftheBushadministrationandearlyyearsofObama,years
thatcoincidedwithUSglobalcampaignagainstIslamicterrorists,while
turningablindeyetoUScorporate-hiredterrorists.
WhentheforeignministerofSwedenproposedthatworkingtowarda
solutiontothePalestinianQuestioncouldhelpcontainterrorism,Israel
andtheWesternpresscondemnedsuchlinkage.Itisnosecrettothe
entireworldthatIsraelhasbeenterrorizingthePalestinianpeopleunder
apartheidconditionssince1948.ItisalsonosecretthatPalestiniansare
condemnedasterroristswhentheyarefightingforahomelandwhilethe
Israeliarmedforceskillingthemenmasseispresentedasdefendingits
security.Thistypeofhypocrisyisnotlostonpeople,includingmany
Jewsallovertheworld.Itisnavetoassumethatsimplysettlingonceand
forallthePalestinianQuestionwhilepursuingimperialistpoliciestoward
Islamiccountrieswouldsomehowendterrorism.
ThePalestinianQuestionmustbesettledonitsownmerits,eventhough
ithasreverberationsacrosstheentireIslamicworld.ThattheSwedish
foreignministerscommentswerecriticizedinsteadofembracedisjust
anotherillustrationthattheWesterncountriesledbytheUSwant
terrorismtocontinueandtothriveaslongastheyarenottheones
sufferingcasualtiesorhavingtoacceptrefugeesfleeingtheircountries
becausetheUSdestabilizedthem.Aslongascasualtiesandrefugeesare
confinedtoMuslimcountries,aswasthecaseinBeirutjustdaysbefore
theParisbombing,thenalliswellbecauseracismisaliveandwellinthe
ChristianWest.
Thedifferentlobbies,theideologues,andthecheerleadersofPax
Americanawillnotstopcheeringanymeasurethatonthesurface
appearstodealwithapoliticalproblemthroughmilitarymeans.The
withinthesystemcriticssuggestingbothamilitaryandpolitical
solutionarealwaysthereofferingtheso-calledliberalbalancein
democracy.Whatislackingisarealisticapproachbasedonthetrue
capabilitiesandlimitsofPaxAmericanaintheageofrisingAsian
economichegemony.Finally,istheUSinterestedinregimechange
becauseithasinmindthebestinterestsofthepeopleinthosecountriesit
destabilizes,wishingthemtohavegreatersocialjusticeandeconomic
wellbeing?Ifso,shouldnttheUSbefocusingonachievingthesesame
goalsathomeforitsowncitizens,especiallyminoritiesbutalsothe
weakermiddleclasssufferingdownwardmobilityinthelastthree
decades?
JonKofasisaretireduniversityProfessorfromIndianaUniversity.
Senttime: 11/16/201511:34:02AM
To: RobertOtto<acrotto@us-state.osis.gov>
Subject: Galeotti-STOLYPIN:Will2016seethethreeRussiasdiverging?realstate-kleptocracy-ideologue
http://www.intellinews.com/stolypin-will-2016-see-the-three-russias-diverging-83962/?
inf_contact_key=b0775a0dc6f7efec1d87f0b592062dd468b5780087092af9ac0f943349ec5e33
bneIntelliNews-STOLYPIN:Will2016seethe
threeRussiasdiverging?
TherehavebeenmanyattemptstounderstandRussiabysubdividingit.IsitafeudalRussiaofrulersandruled,orthefour
RussiaspositedbyscholarNatalyaZubarevich,dividedgeographicallyandsocio-economically?Myownsenseisthat
alongsidesuchformulations,wealsoneedtoseethecountryandsocietydividedintothree,andthecompetitionbetween
themoneasmuchphilosophicalaspracticalislikelytobecomeallthesharperin2016,definingRussiasfuture
trajectory,andtheeventualpost-Putinorder.
Thethree
Howeverlittleattentionitmaygetinforeigncoverage,Russiahasaworking,rationalstate.Thisisnotsomeneo-fascist
imperialism,noranout-of-controlkleptocracywhereeverythingisplunderedandfunnelledintoforeignbankaccounts.
Thereareinefficiencies,thereispettycorruptionapparentlyontheriseagainasaresultofofficialsshrinkingreal
incomesbutinthemain,thecountryworks.Roadsarepaved,refuseiscollected,teachersteachandpoliceofficers
police.Mostpeopleessentiallywanttodotheirjobs,livethatperennialRussiandreamandmantraanormallife.
However,aboveRealRussiasquatsthesmaller,butvastlyricherKleptocraticRussia.Thisuglyparasiteismuchofthe
timehappytoletitshostdoitsthing,buthasultimateauthorityoverthestructuresofstate,routinesoflifeandworkingsof
justice,whenitchoosestoexertit.Thisistherealmoftheembezzlingseniorofficials,thepamperedsonsanddaughtersof
themighty,thebusinesspeoplewhodependasmuchonsweetheartdealsandcovertcartelsasanyrealacumen.
Yetthiscountrycannotsimplybedismissedasakleptocracy,becauseattheverytopofthesteppedzigguratofnational
powerliesthesmallestand,perhaps,mostdangerousandperniciousincarnation:IdeologicalRussia.Itishardtodoubt
that,whateverhismotivationsduringhisearlierpresidencies,VladimirPutinisdrivennownotbypersonaleconomic
interestbutanideologicalprogrammeavisionofanationrestoredtoitsdueplaceinhistoryandtheworld(and,by
extension,avisionofhisappropriatelegacy).Hehassurroundedhimselfwithasmallcoterieoflike-mindedcohortsorat
leastfigureswillingandabletoplaythatroleandtheyareultimatelyincharge.
TheKleptocratsgettoreachintoRealRussiawhentheychoose,todivertaprocurementcontracthere,dictateacourt
decisionthere,buttheIdeologistsinturnhavethefinalsay.EversinceCrimea,theprimarythrustofnationalpolicyhas
beentowardsconfrontationalgeopolitics,whichhavehitattheheartofthekleptocratsinterests,grindinganalready-
sufferingeconomydownwardsandlimitingtheirscopetomovethemselvesandtheirassetsatwill.Beyondthat,whereasin
thepastthesetwoblocscollaboratedsmoothly,therearenowindicationsthattheIdeologuesseesomeoftheKleptocrats
andtheirparasitichabitsasagrowingprobleminanagewhendwindlingresourcesneedtobefocusedmoredirectlyonthe
ideologicalproject.Witness,presumably,RussianRailwayschiefVladimirYakuninsdismissalandtheincreasingevidenceof
anot-as-bogus-as-usualanti-corruptioncampaignontheway.
Ofcourse,nosuchsimplepatterncanbeexactandaccurate.Thereareindividualshighupinthesystem,fromcabinet
ministerstocentralbankchiefElviraNabiullina,whosetechnocraticinstinctsseemclosesttothoseofRealRussia.
Likewise,evenIdeologistsstillseemhappytohelptheirchildrenfindcomfortableandhighlylucrativepositions,from
whencetostealwithsavageabandon.However,asabroadmodelfortryingtounderstandthedisparateandoften
contradictoryforcesworkingtoshapeRussiasfuture,thisseemstohavesomevalue.
Wideninggapsin2016
Althoughitisprobablywishfulthinkingtoexpectdramaticandpositiveoutcomesoverthecourseofthecomingyear,fora
varietyofreasons2016islikelytoseetherelationshipsbetweenthethreeRussiasbecomeincreasinglytense,layingthe
groundworkforchangetocome.
OnSeptember18nextyear,electionswillbeheldfortheDuma,thelowerhouse,whichwillinmanywaysalsobea
referendumontheregime.ThereisnoquestionofUnitedRussia(anditsaffiliatedpseudo-parties)losingtheircontrolover
thechamber,bothbecauseofthepropagandacampaignlikelytoprecedethevoteandalso,wherenecessary,judicialrigging
oftheprocessandthecount.Wecan,forexample,expecttoseethemorevocalandeffectiveKremlincriticssystematically
excluded,vilifiedandpressurised.Howthevotewillcount,though,isthatitforcesthestatetomobilisethemassesand
theextenttowhichithastostruggletoproducetheresultsdecreedbytheKremlinwillprovideinsiderswithanindexof
truepopulardiscontent.
Afterall,Putinssky-highpersonalratingstelluslittleaboutthepublicmood.Arguably,thegrowingrashoflocallabourand
socialprotests,fromtruckersblockingroadstodemonstrationsagainstrisingutilitiesprices,areabettermeasure,as
inflation,wagepressuresandtheeffectsofsocialspendingcutsallcometobite.
TheIdeologistsmaybetemptedtocrankuptheirpropagandaaboutaRussiaisolatedandembattled,butthereisarealrisk
offantasyfatigueifthisisjustamatterofintemperatewordsandinventedthreats.Ontheotherhand,manufacturingor
introducingRussiaintocrisesabroadtogivesubstancetothehype,fromarenewedUkrainecampaigntopickingfights
overtheArcticsea-lanes,wouldnotonlydepletedwindlingresources,butlikelyonlydeepenitseconomicanddiplomatic
isolation.
ThisisunlikelytopleasetheKleptocrats,squeezedbetweeneconomicstagnation,populardissatisfactionandKremlin
adventurism.However,atpresentpoliticalpowertrumpsallinRussia:thericharenotsomuchwealthyintheirownright
somuchasthetemporarystewardsofthoseassetsuntilthedaycomeswhentheKremlinseekstoreassignthem.Tothis
end,theyhaveaperverseincentivetowanttoseegenuineruleoflawandsecurepropertyrightscometoRussia,andan
endtoitsgeopoliticalstrugglewiththeWest.
Anarchetypalbank-robberwantsthepoliceforcetobeinefficientandcorruptuntilheisrichenoughtoownbanks,at
whichpointhewantsthestatetoprotecthisill-gottengains.So,too,akleptocraticgenerationofRussianoligarchs,
minigarchsandboyar-bureaucratswhohavedonewellthankstoPutinmaywellcometofeelthattheirinterestshavecome
todivergefromhis.
AndwhataboutthepoorRussianpeople,theperenniallydisenfranchised?Thereseemslittleprospectoftheirrisingagainst
theregime,literallyormetaphorically(rising,afterall,forwhat?).Instead,theirsaretheweaponsoftheweak:refusingto
conform,turningtotheundergroundeconomy,passivelyresistingtobehaveastheirmasterswant.Thisdoesnotgo
unnoticed,andwillbevisibleatleasttothosewhoseethereal,uncookedbooksinindicesfromlabourunrestand
productivitytosuicideratesandsupportforlocalcivicinitiatives.
Initself,thiswillnotforcechangeontheelite.However,itmayscaretheKleptocratsandtechnocrats.Iftheeconomy
worsens,iftheelectionsprovetoughertomassage,andiftheKremlinlooksincreasinglywillingtosacrificetheirinterestsin
thenameofanideologicalproject,atsomepointtheywillbegintolookforwaystoprotectthem.
Andherestheinevitablepredictionburiedinalltheseyearaheadarticles.Itmaywellnotcomein2016,butwhenever
Putinisreplacedorsucceeded,itwillnotbewithanotherIdeologist,butwithaKleptocrat.Theinterestsoftheelitewill
takeprecedenceoverthemasses,butalsooverRussiangeopoliticalgrandeur,andthisnewregimewilleagerlyseektomend
bridgeswiththeWest.
Asagenerationofruthlessexploitersgiveswaytotheirmorepamperedandlesssharp-toothedchildren,thepressureto
createreliableprotectionsforpropertyrights(howeverthatpropertymayhavebeenacquiredinthefirstplace)willonly
grow.Meanwhile,ordinaryRussiansandtheirtechnocratfellow-travellersintheelitewillbelookingforchange,andthus
thepossibilitynomoreisthataKleptocraticpresidencymayinturngiveway,someday,sometime,toageneration
finallyeagertomakerealthepromisesof1991ofbuildinggenuine,workingpoliticalandeconomicdemocracy.Perhaps.
MarkGaleottiisProfessorofGlobalAffairsattheSPSCenterforGlobalAffairs,NewYorkUniversityandDirectorofits
InitiativefortheStudyofEmergingThreats.HewritestheblogInMoscowsShadows
(http://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/)andtweetsas@MarkGaleotti.
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 11/13/201501:47:04PM
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume12,Issue207
Viewthisemailinyourbrowser
November13,2015--Volume12,Issue207

INTHISISSUE
*Moscowremainscommittedtousingexpatcommunitiesforpoliticalgoals
*Kabardino-Balkarianjamaatexperiencessetbackwithdeathofamir
*EUandAzerbaijanlookforwaystoputtenserelationsonmorepositivetrack

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)
PutinandLavrovAgainPlaytheEthnicCompatriotCard

Sincethe1990s,MoscowhasrepeatedlylookedbeyondRussiasbordersandpledgedto
cometotheassistanceofitsallegedlyvictimizedfellowRussiancitizens,orethnicGreat
Russians,orRussianspeakers(allthreecategoriesapplywheneverMoscowfindsitdesirable
toplaythiscard).Transnistria,GeorgiaandUkraineeachexemplifiestheprocessbywhich
theRussianFederationispreparedtouseforcetodestabilizeneighboringstates,allegedlyon
thegroundsthattheyaremistreatingRussians.Moreover,Moscowsubsidizesandotherwise
supportsalargenumberoforganizationsandmovementsinsideallofitsneighbors,from
KazakhstantotheBaltic,toensurethatthepotiskeptboilingovertheissueofthepurported
discriminationagainsttheseminorityRussiancommunitiesandtheRussiandiaspora.Although
thesetacticsemergedmostviolentlyinUkraine,theirorigingoesbackatleasttoPeterthe
Great,wholegitimizedhismilitarycampaignsagainsttheOttomansbyclaimingRussiawas
protectingtheOrthodoxsubjectsoftheOttomanEmpirefromdiscrimination.Suchmethods
havecontinuedtothepresentday.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinandForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovrecentlyreiteratedthat
theyfullyintendtoagainplaythiscardtounhingeneighboringandotherstates.OnNovember
56,theybothaddressedtheWorldCongressofCompatriots,whichtookplaceinMoscow.
Themeetinggatheredabout400representativesofRussianexpatriatecommunitiesfrom97
countries,allegedlyrepresentingaglobaldiaspora,estimatedbyPutintoequal30million
people.TheRussianpresidentopenlyadmittedhewaselicitingthesupportofthese
organizationsandcommunitiestounifythedomesticRussianpopulation,asinthecaseof
Crimea.Thus,heconfirmedtheinextricabilityofdomesticandforeignpolicyconsiderationsin
theseizureoftheUkrainianterritoriesofCrimeaandsoutheasternDonbas.Equally
importantly,hecitedtheroleoftheRussianOrthodoxChurchin,today,playingitstraditional
roleasanarmofRussianimperialismbyunifyingthesecommunitiesaroundit(Kremlin.ru,
November5).

IntheirremarksbeforemembersoftheRussiandiaspora,bothPutinandLavrovstatedthat
far-reachingsupportforforeigncompatriotshasalwaysbeenastatepriority.Theylisted
programscurrentlyinplacetodevelopcontactswiththeseexpatcommunities,including
educationaltrips,internationalsportscompetitions,childrenscamps,andthepromotionof
Russian-languageassociationsabroad.MeanwhiletheRusskiyMir(RussianWorld)
foundationhasbeenallocated6.5billionrubles($97million)tosupportsimilarprograms
outsideofRussia.Russian-languagemedia,nowappearingin80countries,willalsobeused
tostrengthenMoscowsauthorityandinfluence(Kremlin.ru,November5)
Inanarticlewrittenearlier,specificallyfortheconference,ForeignMinisterLavrovreiterated
thatMoscowwouldenergeticallydefenditscompatriotsusingtheentirearsenalofavailable
methodsstipulatedbyinternationallaw.MoscowhastwiceusedforceinGeorgiaand
Ukrainefortheseavowedpurposes.Anddomesticlegislationgrantsthepresidentofthe
RussianFederationtheexpressrighttosendforcesabroadwithoutconsultingtheDuma
(lowerhouseofparliament)inordertoprotectco-nationalsabroad.Therefore,Lavrovs
caveataboutinternationallawseemstobelittlemorethanmeaninglesswindowdressing.In
hisarticle,LavrovalsoattemptstocoopttheTatarsofRussiabyhighlightinggovernment
programstosupporttheculturesandtraditionsofthisgroupworldwide.LikePutin,he
emphasizestheroleofstateorganizationsinprovidingsupportforcompatriotorganizations
abroadthatareactuallyarmsoftheRussiangovernment.Furthermore,henotes,itishardto
overestimatetheroleofmediaoutletsinourcooperationwiththesecommunities.Finally,he
stressestheprogramsworkingwithyouthfromneighboringcountriesaswellasRussia
(Mid.ru,November3).
Ononehand,suchspeechesandarticlesindicatetheutterpoliticizationinRussiaoftheethnic
cardanddiasporaforuseasastate-breakinginstrumentabroadandastate-makingoneat
home.Butontheotherhand,suchanelastic,purelypoliticalconceptofRussiannesscanand
evidentlyisbeingutilizedtodepriveRussiasownminoritiesaswellastheCrimeanTatar
minorityengulfedbytheseizureofCrimeaoftheirnationality.MuratYazydzhiev,aleaderof
thepro-MoscowCrimeanTatarKyrym(Crimea)Organization,recentlyattackedthenational
movementoftheCrimeanTatarsanddemandedthathisco-nationalsstopthinkingabout
nationalsovereigntyandacceptthesimpleideathatCrimeanTatarsareRussians
(Belogorsknews.blogpsot.com,November2).
ThesetypesofdeclarationsattesttotheelasticityoftheconceptofRussianness,which
actuallyhasnodiscernibleethniccontext.UnderRussiandiscourseifitistakentoitslogical
conclusionalloftheSlavistsintheUnitedStatescouldalsobeconsidered,bysome
measure,tobeRussiansmeritingMoscowssolicitude,simplybecausetheyspeakorread
Russian.TheideaoftheRussianpeopleistodayafullypoliticizedandstate-propagated
concept,usableforthepurposeofdestroyingorbuildingconsolidatedstatesintheformer
Sovietimperialspace.Assuch,PutinandLavrovareonceagainshowing,inwordanddeed,
thattheyandthegovernmenttheydirectarefullycommittedtotherevisionofstateboundaries
inthisandotherareasofEuropeandEurasia.Andthelogicoftheirpoliciespointsinonlyone
directionnamelywar.
--StephenBlank
IslamicStateApparentlyWinsItsCompetitionWithCaucasusEmirate
FollowingthekillingoftheIngushjamaatsamirinNazranonAugust31,theKabardino-
Balkarianjamaatalsoexperiencedamajorsetback.TheRussiansecurityservicesmanaged
tokillRobertZankishiev,whowasbetterknownamongthearmedIslamistunderground
movementoftheNorthCaucasusasAmirAbdullah,theleaderofthejamaatofKabarda,
BalkariaandKarachay(KBK).
RobertVladimirovichZankishievwasbornonJuly6,1988,inKabardino-Balkariascapital,
Nalchik.TheauthoritiesputZankishievonthefederalwantedlistinNovember2013,
charginghimwithparticipationinillegalarmedgroupsandtheillegalpossessionoffirearms
(Kavkazpro.ru,accessedNovember11).
Ataroundnoon,onNovember10,theauthoritiesinKabardino-Balkariabeganevacuating
residentsfromtheareaaroundanapartmentblockon2TamanskayaDiviziyaStreet,inthe
districtofDubki,inNalchik,inwhichasuspectedmilitantwasholedup.Theapartment
buildingwassealedoffbythepoliceandsecurityservices,andwhenthemilitantstarted
shootingasitwasbeingevacuated,thesecurityforcesusedtheirarmoredshieldstoprotect
thecivilians(Interfax,November10).
AccordingtotheNationalAntiterroristCommittee(NAK),bythetimetheevacuationbegan,
thesecurityforceslearnedthatthemilitantwasinsideanapartmentalongwithhiswife
(Newsru.com,November10).Thesecurityforcesinitiallythoughtthatseveralpersonswere
intheapartment,butitturnedoutthatonlytherebelamirandhiswifewereinside.Afterbrief
negotiationsandearnestpersuasionbyZankishievsmother-in-law,anagreementwas
reachedthatthemilitantswifewouldleavethehouseandsurrender.Itturnedoutthatshehad
beenwoundedintheshootingand,aftersurrenderingtosecurityforces,shewassenttoa
hospital.Accordingtootherreports,thewomanherselfagreedtoleavethesealed-offhome
andwasnotpersuadedtodoso.Shereportedlyinformedpeopleaboutherinjuriesoveran
Internetmessengerappandaskedforhelp.Itisknownthatthewoundedfemalehastwo
children(Fedpress.ru,November10).Sheislikelytobetried,attheveryleast,asan
accompliceofherhusband.
Zankishievswifewasprobablyallowedtosurrenderthankstotheinterventionofthewell-
knowncivilrightsactivistValeryKhatazhukov,whopersonallyappealedtothedeputyinterior
ministerofKabardino-Balkaria,KazbekTetuev,toreleaseher(Mk.ru,November10).
Zankishievhimselfrefusedtonegotiatewiththesecurityforces.Thisisnotsurprisingsincea
militantsvoluntarysurrenderonlyresultsinhimbeingimprisonedforlife.InRussia,servinglife
inprisoniswidelyconsideredtobeworsethanadeathsentence.Noreportsareavailable
thatwouldsuggestthatanywell-knownamirhaseversurrenderedtoauthoritiesofhisown
freewill.
Afterthemilitantswifewasallowedtosurrender,theclashbetweenthesecurityforcesand
Zankishievwasbrief,andhewaskilled.Themilitanthadnochancetoescapefromthe
apartmentblockandmusthavegearedupforafight,fullyrealizingthatthiswastheendofthe
line.Thecounterterroristoperationregimewasliftedby4p.m.,whichmeansthattheentire
operationtookonlyalittlemorethanfivehourstocomplete.
Zankishievbecame amiroftherebelsinKabardino-Balkariainthesummerof2014,and
apparentlyfailedtocreateastructurethatwouldprotecthim.Otherwise,itishardtoexplain
whynobodywarnedtheamiraboutthecomingdangerortriedtodivertthesecurityforces
byattackingthemfromtheoutside.Thisisespeciallystrange,giventhatKabardino-Balkarian
officials,includingrepublicanDeputyInteriorMinisterKazbekTetuev,recognizethatthe
KBKjamaathasretainedallofitsstructuralelementsvelayat,sectors,amirs,theirnaibs
(aides)andordinarymembers.TetuevclaimsthattheKBKjamaathasneverhadmorethan
70membersandcurrentlyhasonly20(Kavpolit.com,November5).However,thisclaimis
highlydubious.Priorto2010,theKBK jamaatwassowelldevelopedthat,apartfrom
sectors,italsohadaseparateleveloforganizationsinalllargevillages.
RussianmediapaidspecialattentiontoZankishievspledgeofallegiancetotheso-called
IslamicState(IS)(RIANovosti,November10).HesworefealtytoAbuBakral-Baghdadiin
ashortvideothispastAugust.Hedidnotcoverhisfaceinthevideo,therebysignalingthat
therewasnoturningbackforhim(Liveleak.com,August12).Zankishievsaidthatheandhis
groupmadethedecisiontofollowtheIS,nottheCaucasusEmirate,afterdeliberations.Thus,
theKBK jamaatbecamethefourthsuchmilitantgroupintheNorthCaucasustoswear
loyaltytotheIS.AftertheChechenandtheIngushamirsswitchedsidesfromtheCaucasus
EmiratetotheIS,theleadersofKBK jamaathadnochoicebutfollowsuit.TheKBK
jamaatdependsontheChechenrebelsforfinancingandorganizationalknow-how,because
thelatterhavelinkstotheoutsideworldthroughtheirrepresentativesabroad.AftertheKBK
jamaatpledgedallegiancetotheIS,thearmedIslamistresistanceintheNorthCaucasus
onceagainbecameunified.EvenifsomepeoplestilltalkabouttheCaucasusEmirate,itisthe
ISthatformsafullnetworkofjamaatsacrosstheNorthCaucasus,whichmakestheISthe
winnerofthestrugglewiththeCaucasusEmirate.
TheRussianauthoritiesnowtieallincidentsinvolvingthearmedIslamistundergroundinthe
NorthCaucasustoIslamicStateregardlessofwhethertheyareattachedtothatorganization
ornot.Whetheritisanarmedclashwiththeinsurgentsoraslainrebeliskilled,allofthemare
saidtobetiedtotheIS.Russiadoeseverythinginitspowertorepresentitselfasavictimof
theIS:indeed,theRussianauthoritieswanttoforcetheWesttorecognizeitasafull-fledged
allyinthefightagainsttheradicalIslamistorganization.Inreality,however,Moscowdoesnot
necessarilywanttodefeattheIS,buttomaketheWestforgiveitfortheannexationofCrimea
andthewarintheeasternUkraine.
--MairbekVatchagaev
TheEU-AzerbaijanRelationship:CurrentStatusandFutureOutlook
OnOctober27,inBaku,representativesoftheCouncilofEuropeandtheEuropeanUnion
presentedseveralnewprojectstobeimplementedinthesixEasternPartnership(EaP)
countriesBelarus,Ukraine,Moldova,Georgia,ArmeniaaswellasAzerbaijan.Thetwo
Europeanorganizationshaveallocated4.7millioneuros($5.1million)fortherealizationof
fouroftheseprojectswithinAzerbaijanitself.Theseareaimedatimprovingmediafreedom,
buildingupcapacitiestofightandpreventcorruptioninadministrativebodies,increasingthe
roleandcapacityoftheAcademyofJusticeandtrainingjudges,aswellasenhancingthe
efficiencyandqualityofjudicialservicesinAzerbaijan.TheheadoftheEUdelegationto
Azerbaijan,AmbassadorMalenaMard,notedthattheEuropeanUnionisproudtoworkwith
Azerbaijanwithintheframeworkoftheseprojects(Trend,October27).
However,relationsbetweentheEUandAzerbaijanare,inreality,quiteabitmoretenseatthe
moment.Disagreementsintheareasofdeepandsustainabledemocracy,humanrights,and
fundamentalfreedomsareatthecoreofthecurrentdissatisfaction.Aftervarioushumanrights
groupsandjournalistsorganizationscondemnedAzerbaijansgovernmentforthejail
sentencesgiventoanumberofmediaandcivilsocietyrepresentativesonwhattheyconsider
tobetrumped-upchargesdesignedtostoptheireverydayactivities,thesituationhas
deterioratedfurther.Anti-AzerbaijanirhetoricdrivenbytheEuropeanmediahasalsohada
negativeimpactonthisprocess.Bakurespondedtothiscriticismbynotingthatatendentious
approachlikeinterventioninandpressureontheinvestigation,aswellasattemptstopoliticize
itevenaschargesagainstcertainindividualswerestillunderreviewareadirectviolationof
Azerbaijanssovereignty(News.az,September2).
When,onSeptember10,theEuropeanParliamentadoptedatoughresolutiononAzerbaijan
2015/2840(RSP)with365votesinfavor,202againstand72abstentions
(Europarl.europa.eu,September9),relationsreachedanadir.Thisresolutioncallsfor
negotiationsonaStrategicPartnershipAgreementwithAzerbaijantobeimmediatelyputon
hold,untilBakutakesconcretestepstoadvancedomesticrespectforuniversalhumanrights.
Theresolutionalsodemandstargetedsanctionsaswellasthesuspensionofissuingvisasto
Azerbaijaniofficialsandevenjudges.
Howeveritshouldbeemphasizedthatresolution2015/2840(RSP)adoptedviaaspecial
non-legislativeprocedurewasnotsupportedbyall751membersoftheEuropean
Parliament,butmostlybythepoliticalleft(S&D,GUE-NGL,ALDEandtheGreens)the
center-rightEuropeanPeoplesParty(EPP),thelargestpoliticalgroupintheEuropean
Parliamentvotedagainstit.ThechairmanoftheForeignRelationsCommittee,German
memberoftheEuropeanParliamentElmarBrok(EPP)alsoallegedaviolationoftherulesof
procedure,astheissueshouldhavefirstbeendiscussedinthecommittees,beforebeing
broughttotheplenarysession(EurActiv,October5).
ThereactionoftheAzerbaijanigovernmenttothisresolutionwaspromptandextremely
negative.Thefollowingday,onSeptember11,theEuropeanExternalActionService(EEAS
theEUdiplomaticservice)delegationsvisittoAzerbaijanwasabruptlypostponed.The
EEASdelegationhadbeenscheduledtoarriveinAzerbaijanthenextweektodiscussthe
proposedStrategicModernizationPartnershipagreementbetweenBrusselsandBaku.
Moreover,theAzerbaijaniparliamentcalledanextraordinaryplenarysessionandpasseda
resolutionsuspendingitsactivitieswiththeEuronestParliamentaryAssembly(ajointforumof
delegatesfromtheEuropeanParliamentandlegislaturesofthesixEasternPartnership
countries)(Fineko/abc.az,September14).InapressconferencewithhisTurkishcounterpart,
FerudunSiniroglu,AzerbaijaniForeignMinisterElmarMammadyarovdeclared:Azerbaijan
isanindependentandsovereigncountry.Thereisnowayasovereigncountrycouldaccept
politicalpressureanddictate(APA,September16).
ThespeakeroftheAzerbaijaniparliament,OgtayAsadov,attributedtheEUspressureon
BakutothelattersrefusaltojoinsanctionsagainstRussia(APA,October26).Whereas,
AzerbaijaniDeputyForeignMinisterMahmudMammadguliyevallegedthattheArmenian
lobby,aswellasotherforces[may]standbehindsuchactivitiesoftheEuropeanParliament.
Nonetheless,MammadguliyevbelievesthattheharshresolutiononAzerbaijanadoptedbythe
EuropeanParliamentinSeptemberdoesnotcorrespondtothespiritofrelationsbetweenthe
twosides:AzerbaijanandtheEUneedeachother,andtheirrelationswillberestoredafter
sometime,hepredicted(Trend,October2).
Certainly,todaytheEUremainsAzerbaijansmaintradingpartner,accountingfor52percent
ofitstradeturnover(EurActiv,March6).Andasanenergyproducerandprospectivefuture
transitstate,AzerbaijanalsoplaysastrategicroleintheEUsenergysecurity.In2014,
Azerbaijanexported35milliontonsofoil,ofwhich24.5milliontonswereproducedbythe
StateOilCompanyofAzerbaijan(SOCAR).HalfofSOCARsexports,lastyear,weresold
toconsumersinEuropeespeciallytorefineriesinSpain,Italy,Germany,Polandandthe
CzechRepublic(Abc.az,October23).Inaddition,aftertheconstructionoftheSouthernGas
Corridor,AzerbaijaninaturalgaswillstartbeingpumpeddirectlytoEuropeanmarketswhile
bypassingRussianterritory.Scheduledforcompletionbeforetheendofthisdecade,the
SouthernGasCorridorpromisestosignificantlystrengthentheEUsenergysecurityby
diversifyingbothtransitroutesandsupplierskeygoalsoftheEuropeanUnionsenergy
securitystrategy(Eur-lex.europa.eu,May28,2014).
Needlesstosay,anewworkableframeworkhasyettobeelaboratedtobetterreflectthe
currentrealitiesintheEU-Azerbaijanrelationship.FuadIsgandarov,Azerbaijansambassador
toBelgium,hasarguedthatsinceAzerbaijanisnotkeenonbeingassociatedwiththeEU,it
shouldnotbescrutinizedinthesamewayascountrieslookingtobecomefullmembers
(EurActiv,March6).Thisandotherpragmaticsuggestionswilllikelyhavetobecarefully
examinedbybothsidesinordercomeupwithanewmiddlegroundtorevivetheEU-
Azerbaijanrelationshipinthefuture.
--GulshanPashayeva
Forward ReadLater
LikeusonFacebook FollowEDMonTwitter EDMontheWeb
Availablenowforfreedownload,Zapad-2013:AViewFromHelsinki.Lookforothertitlesthrough
theJamestownStoreatjamestown.org/store.
ThisOccasionalPapercloselyanalyzesMoscow'smassiveZapad-2013exercise,carried
outacrosswesternRussiaandBelarusinSeptember2013,andoffersaFinnish
perspectiveonthemodernizationgainsachievedbytheRussianarmedforcesinrecent
years,aswellastherespectiveareaswheretheseforcesaretryingtomake
improvementstotheirstrategicshortcomings.
Availableforfreedownload,ConflictZones:NorthCaucasusandtheWesternBalkansCompared.
LookforothertitlesthroughtheJamestownStoreatjamestown.org/store.
InConflictZones,JanuszBugajskienhancesourunderstandingofthecausesandconsequencesof
thecurrentconflictsintheNorthCaucasusandextrapolateslikelyscenariosintheregions
development.HecomparesandcontrastsconditionsintheNorthCaucasuswiththeformerYugoslav
federationintheWesternBalkans,amulti-ethnicstatestructurethatcouldnotcontaininternally
generatedpoliticalandethnicdisputes.
TheEurasiaDailyMonitorisapublicationoftheJamestownFoundation.Theopinionsexpressedinit
arethoseoftheindividualauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheJamestown
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FrolovonRussiaandSyriaaftertheterroristattack
KashinontheKremlinsreluctancetocalltheairlinedisasterterrorism
Russia,IransignS-300contract
Thetravelbanishurtinganalreadybatteredtouristindustry(Kiselevontheterroristattack)
Putinsbillionairedaughter
JusticeMinistryaccusesMemorialofplottingtooverthrowthegovernment
NemtsovfamilylawyerswantZolotovtobequestioned
Rosbalt:GeremeyevandMukhudinovarenowsuspectsintheNemtsovcase
GoldmanSachsditchesitsBRICfund
Seeyesterdaysnotes
http://slon.ru/posts/59283
VladimirFrolovwritesthatnoonecanbecompletelysureatthispoint,butitdoesappearthataterroristattackdestroyedthe
Russianairliner,thatthelikelysuspectsareaSinaiIslamistorganizationaffiliatedwithISIS,andthatitwasdoneasaactofrevenge
againstRussiafortheSyriaairstrikeoperation.Noselfrespectingstatecanavoidreactingtosuchanattack.Andanyretaliatory
strikeattheterroristsshouldbedoneincooperationwithEgyptianforces.TheterroristattackwillalsoforceareviewofRussian
strategyinSyria,are-evaluationoftherealismoftheoperation,aswellasitstacticsandrisksforRussiaandRussiancitizens.
Withoutsuchare-evaluation,aretaliatorystrikeattheterroristswouldonlyintensifycombatoperationsandthesizeoftheRussian
contingentinSyria,whichwouldbeamistake.
Theaftermathoftheterroristattackraisessomequestions.HowwasthedecisionabouttheSyriangambitmade?Howwerethe
risksandreliabilityofintelligenceevaluated?WhytakepartinareligiousbattleonthesideoftheShiitesagainsttheSunnis?Is
thereapossibilityofaglobaljihadagainstRussians?SpecialistsrealizedthatRussiantouristsinEgyptandevenTurkeywere
defenselesstargetsforISISterrorists.Atleastraisetheterroristthreatwarningandloudlywarnaboutthedangersofvacationingin
theregion.
TheRussianbombingcampaignhasnotledtoasubstantialimprovementofthesituationintheSyrianconflict.Theterritory
controlledbytheSyriangovernmenthasexpandedabout50squarekilometersintheregionsouthofAleppo,wherethefighting
wasdonemostlybyIranianallies,allieswhointhecourseoftwoweeksoffightinglostmorethantengeneralsandstaffofficers.
IntheprovinceswheremostRussianairstrikesweremade,theoppositionhasretakenterritoryfromtheSyrianarmy.Ontopof
that,DamascushaslostmoreterritoryinKhamaprovince.InAleppoandeastofKhomas,ISISispreparingacounteroffensive
thatthreatensencirclementofIranianandSyriantroops.Thusfar,noteventheminimumprogramofhaltingtheSyrianarmys
retreatandlossofterritoryhasbeenachieved.Theoppositionhasnotbeenneutralized,whichwouldfreeupforcestocombat
ISIS.ItwasonlyrecentlythatRussiaseriouslydirectedairstrikesagainstISISandtheeffectivenessofthosestrikesis
questionable.Russianairstrikescouldcontinueforanothertwo-threemonthsinhopesthatSyrianandIranianforceswillmount
successfulattacks,butsofaritsnotobvioustherewillbeanysuchsuccesses.
Inthemeantime,wecannotexpecttheoppositiontoweakentheUSanditsalliesaresupplyingtheoppositionforceswithup-to-
dateweapons,includingAmericananti-tankweapons.TheaimistoincreasepressureonAssadtoforcehimtonegotiateapower
transition.ThiswasdonepreciselyinconnectionwiththeRussianoperationtheinsurgentscouldnotbeallowedtobedefeated.
Russiaisalreadybeingdrawnintoaprotractedwar,almostinanAfghanscenario.ThereareparallelstotheAfghanintervention
Russiaisfightingonthesideofforeigninterventionists,Iranians,mercenariesdrawnfromamongAfghanrefugeesinIran,Shitte
militiafromIraq,and,fromLebanon,Hezbollah.
Intheabsenceofmilitarysuccess,Moscowistryingtoacceleratediplomaticeffortsaimedatresolvingtheconflict,buttherehas
notbeenanybigmovementinthatdirection.AnexpandedcontactgroupwiththeparticipationofIranhasbeencreated,butthe
30OctoberViennacommuniquwasaweakerstatementthanthe2012Genevacommuniqu,whichmentionedatransitional
bodyanddescribedaroadmaptoapowertransitionRussiaandIraninsistthatAssadshouldnotonlyremaininpowerduring
atransitionalperiod,butbeabletoparticipateinnewelections.TheUS,theEUandpartoftheAraballiesthinkAssadcanstayin
powerduringatransition,butcannottakepartinnewelectionsItsobviousthatAssadsfutureisakeyquestionaslongasno
solutionisfoundregardingguaranteestoAssadthatareacceptabletotheopposition,theconflictwillnotberesolvedandthewar
willgoon
Moscowhaspreparedalistof38oppositionfigureswhowouldmakeupanegotiationpanelintalkswiththeregime,butonlya
fewofthemhaveanyrealinfluenceoverthearmedoppositionforces.Moscowwantspeopleonthatlisttomeetwith
representativesoftheAssadregimethisweek(somethingtheUSviewsaspremature).Moscowalsotriedtoorganizeameeting
inAbuDhabibetweenrepresentativesoftheFreeSyrianArmyandRussiandiplomatsandmilitaryfigures(alargenumberof
groupsintheFreeSyrianArmyrefusedtoparticipateuntilRussianairstrikeswerehalted)Tobeginarealpoliticalprocessin
Syria,itwillbenecessarytofirstarrangeaceasefirebetweentheinsurgentsandAssadsarmyRussiashouldhaltairstrikes
againsttheSyrianopposition,turnitsattentiontoISIS,andhaltthefalteringoffensivebytheSyrianarmy,whichwouldwithdrawto
defensiblepositions.MoscowshoulddistanceitselffromitsIranianalliesandwithdrawfromtheShiitecoalition,whichismaking
Russiaatargetforjihadists.Russiashouldremainneutral.Moscowshouldannouncethatitsaimistohaltthefighting,defendthe
Syrianpopulation,andbeginarealdialogue.ThischangeofstrategywouldallowforclosecooperationwiththeUSagainsta
commonenemy.ThenwecansendaMedvedevdelegationtoWashington.
Moscowisreluctanttocallthedisasterterrorismbecausethatwouldraisesomeuncomfortablequestionsaboutthedecisionto
launchairstrikesinSyriaquestionslikeDidanyonethinkofthethousandsofRussiantouristsvacationingintheMiddleEast?
Itsobviousthatnoonedid.Sowhatfollowsfromthis?ShouldPutinappeartotheRussianpublicandtellthepeoplethatinview
ofthatwhathashappened,andinordertonotrepeatthatdisaster,RussiawillcurtailitsSyrianoperation?Orshouldhesaythat
wewillnotwithdrawfromSyria,buttheheadsofthespecialservices,thechiefoftheGeneralStaffandMedvedevwillresign
sincetheyhavenothandledtheirofficialobligations?OrshouldPutinannouncethathemadethedecisionSyriaanditishewho
willresign?ButifcoursethatsimpossiblenoterroristattackwillforcePutintowithdrawfromSyriaorleavetheKremlin.No
terroristattackwillforceresignationsintheRussiangovernment.Therealsurprisewouldhavebeenifsomeonehadthoughtabout
theRussiantouristsIfPutincouldbethreatenedwithimpeachment,orloseanelection,hewouldconducthimselfdifferently.But
whyshouldhechangehisbehavior?Therearenosuchthreatstohim.WhathappenedinEgyptisnothinguniqueintherelationship
betweenvlastandtheRussianpeopleVlastcandowhatitlikes,therearenothreatstoit,itcanmanipulatepublicopinionone
DmitriyKiselevprogramwouldbeenoughtoexplaintheneedforagroundoperationinSyria(Comment:Kiselevcomesupin
theitembelow)
Kashinbacksuptonotethatanti-terrorismiswhatbroughtPutintopower,andtheSecondChechenWarwasbilledasanAnti-
terroristoperation.DespiteNordOstandBeslan,vlastspropagandahadthepresentpowers-that-beastheonlyforcecapable
ofcombatingterrorisminRussia.Againstthisbackground,societywasreadytocedeallpowertovlastandthatswhenthe
historyofPutinsRussiabegan.Itsinterestingthatafterthe2010Moscowmetrobombingandother(lessfrequent)terrorist
incidents,theKremlindidnotlifttheanti-terroristbanneroncemore,butsawtoitthatthestorieswerepartofthestreamof
ordinarynewsReturningtoanti-terroristrhetoricwouldbeanadmission(byPutinnotsomuchtothecitizenryastohimself)
thatforthelastdecade,Russiahasbeengoingincirclesandhasnotmovedfromthespotthatwasthetrumpcardfortheearly
Putin.Andthatislikelywhyvlasthasbeensoreluctanttoadmitthataterroristattackhastakenplace
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-and-iran-sign-long-awaited-s-300-contract/545647.html
RussiaandIranhavepennedalong-awaitedcontractforthedeliveryofMoscow'sadvancedS-300air-defensemissilesystems,aseniorRussian
defenseindustryofficialtoldreportersattheDubaiAirshowonMonday,theRIANovostinewsagencyreported.
ThetwosideshavebeenhashingoutthedetailsofadeliveryoftheS-300regardedasoneofthemostcapableanti-aircraftmissilesystemsin
theworldsincePresidentVladimirPutinliftedaRussiangovernmentbanontheirexporttoIraninApril.
SpeakingoftheS-300airdefensesystem,thecontracthasalreadybeensigned,saidSergeiChemezov,theheadofRussia'slargestdefenseand
technologyholding,Rostec,RIANovostireported.
Chemezov,aclosePutinally,saidthatthetwosideshadcometotermsonakeyquestiondoggingnegotiationsfortheS-300systemssinceApril
a$4billionIranianlawsuitfiledagainstRussia'sstatearmsexportagencyRosoboronexportin2011.
Tehranfiledthesuitafterthen-PresidentDmitryMedvedevissuedapresidentialorderin2010banningdeliveryofS-300stoIranunderan$800
millioncontractsignedin2007afterTehrancameunderheavyinternationalsanctionsforitsnuclearweaponsdevelopmentprogram.
IrandemandedthatRussiadeliverS-300systemsunderanewcontractbeforeremovingitssuit,butRussiahadinsistedthelawsuitmustbe
droppedbeforeanewcontractwouldbesignedaccordingtoChemezov,RussiahascededtoIran'sdemands.
Underthenewcontract,Iranwilldropitslawsuitafterthefirststageofthecontractiscompleted,Chemezovwasquotedassaying,without
specifyingwhatthefirststageofthecontractentails.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-09/the-price-of-russia-s-travel-ban\
Russia'sdecisiontostopflightstoEgyptispotentiallydevastatingforthatcountry'salreadybatteredtouristindustry,butit'salsoagrimsignfor
Russia.EgyptwasthemostpopularholidaydestinationforRussians,andtheywillfindithardtofindareplacement:theircountry'sinvolvementin
theSyrianwarmeansotherpartsoftheMiddleEastmaynotbesafe,either.
PresidentVladimirPutin'srhetoricandeconomicpolicymaybeessentiallyisolationist,buthe'sneverpurposefullydoneanythingtolimitoutbound
tourism.TheabilityofmanyRussianstotraveloverseasonceortwiceayearwasoneofPutin'smajorachievements:Althoughitwashis
predecessor,BorisYeltsin,whoopenedtheborders,itwasunderPutinthatmostpeoplecouldfinallyaffordtogo.In2000,Russiansmade4.2
millionoverseastripsastourists.In2013,thatnumberincreasedto18.3million.Itgreweveryyearsince2009,whentheglobalfinancialcrisis
causedahiccup.
Putin'sforeignpolicyandthefallingpriceofoilhaveconspiredtoreversethegrowth.In2014,thenumberoftouristtripsdropped4percent,mainly
becauseoftheUkrainecrisisandtensionswithEurope.AsRussia'srecessionworsenedthisyear,thedeclinecontinued.Russians,however,still
wenttoEgypt:Itwasfriendly,visa-freeandcheap--aweeklongholidayforaslittleas$500includingairfare--anditofferedbeachholidaysduring
thewinter.EgyptcompeteswithTurkeyforthetopspotonthelistofpopulardestinationsandoutranksitwhentheMediterraneangetstoocold.
TheU.K.wasthefirstcountrytostopflightstoSharmel-SheikhafterinformationemergedsuggestingtheRussianairlinerthatcrashedoverthe
SinaionAug.31hadbeenbroughtdownbyabomb.YetBritishplanescontinuedflyingtoEgypt'sotherbigresort,Hurgada,andinanycase,
EgypthadbeenlosingitsappealforU.K.holidaymakerssincetheArabSpring,in2011.Only296,000visitedlastyear,amere0.4percentofthe
globalnumberandmorethan50percentfewerthanin2010.
Russians,however,madealmost3milliontripstoEgyptin2014,representing7percentoftotalvisitors.Now,thegovernmenthasstoppedall
flightsbothtoSharmandHurgada,andPrimeMinisterDmitriMedvedevsaystheywon'tresumeanytimesoon."Itwilltaketimetoensuresecurity
foravacationinEgypt,"hetolddeputiesonMonday."Let'snotindulgeinillusions,thiswon'tbeashortperiod."
TheflightbansaredevastatingtoEgypt,whichcouldlose70percentofitsforeignvisitorsandalargechunkofthe14percentofforeigncurrency
revenuethattourismprovides.Egypt'sgovernmentwilltrytomakeairportsresembleIsrael'snotoriouslystrictBenGurionInternational.Butthat
wouldn'tbeenoughforRussia.Thecountryasawholewouldneedtobecomemoresecure.
WhileRussiaisfightingradicalIslamistsinSyria,it'simpossibletoruleoutnewactsofterror.Egypthasexperiencedattacksagainsttourists:
hundredsdiedin1997,2004and2005.RussiansarenowprimetargetsbecauseoftheinterventioninSyriatopropupPresidentBasharal-Assad.
ThismeansmostRussianshavefewsafedestinationsopentothemthisseason.OutsidetheMiddleEast,beachholidaysareonlypossiblein
SoutheastAsiaortheCaribbeanatthistimeofyear,andthosearetooexpensivefordevaluation-hitRussians.
Russia'stourismindustryisinformajorlosses:AccordingtotheRussianAssociationofTravelAgencies,about140,000packagetourstoEgypt
havealreadybeensoldforthewinterseason.Medvedevhasorderedthegovernmenttolookintofinancialaidforthetouroperators.
ThereisabiggerrisktotheKremlinitself.WillRussiansbeangryatPutinforgettinginvolvedinaforeignwarthathasclaimedciviliansandclosed
apopularpartoftheworld?Orwilltheyrallybehindthegovernment,demandingretributionagainsttheterrorists?Thelatterismorelikely:The
Kremlinpropagandamachineisalreadyatwork.DmitryKiselyov,hostofVestiNedeli,themostpopularweeklynewsanalysisshowonstate
television,saidSundaythattheplanecouldhavebeenblownupbecauseRussiaalreadywasdoingmoredamagetoIslamicStatethantheWestern
coalitionhasinthepasttwoyears.HeevensuggestedtheU.S.mayhavemadeadealwiththeIslamiststoattackRussianaircraftandnotWestern
ones.
Increasingisolationalwaysmeansangerandescalation.TheKremlinislikelytostepupitsSyriacampaign,anditprobablywillhavemorepublic
support.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/reuters-reveals-identity-of-putins-billionaire-daughter/547946.html
Polystaro/YouTubeAscreenshotfromavideoshowingKaterinaTikhonovaperformingatthedanceshow.
TheReutersnewsagencyonTuesdaysaidithadidentifiedoneofthedaughtersofRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandclaimedthatsheandher
husbandcontrolledassetsworthabout$2billion,includingaseasidevillainBiarritz,France,estimatedtobeworthabout$3.7million.
Aseniorexecutiveatastate-ownedRussianbanktoldReutersthatPutin'syoungerdaughter,whoseidentityhasbeenshieldedfromthepress,
usedthesurnameTikhonova.ThereportsaidKaterina,29,wasthespouseofKirillShamalov,sonofNikolaiShamalov,abankerandlongtime
friendofthepresident.
AccordingtoReuters,thefoundationofthecouple'swealthisastakeinamajorgasandpetrochemicalcompanythatKirillacquiredfromGennady
Timchenko,anotherlongstandingfriendofPutin.
Thepair'svillainBiarritzwasalsoboughtfromTimchenko,Reuterssaid.
TherevelationsundermineclaimsbyPutin'ssupportersthatwhilesomeofhisacquaintancesmayhaveamassedfortunesduringhis15yearsin
power,thepresidenthasnotabusedhispositiontoenrichhimselfandhisfamily.
AccordingtoReuters,KaterinaTikhonovaisworkinginacademiaandrunningpubliclyfundedprojectsatMoscowStateUniversity.Hersister
Mariaisagraduateoftheuniversity.
BothKaterinaandKirillShamalovdeclinedtocommenttoReuters.
Comment:ThatKaterinawasusingthenameTikhonovahadbeenrevealedinmassmediaearlierthisyearsee
the30Januarynotes,forinstance.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-justice-ministry-accuses-ngo-of-plotting-government-overthrow/547944.html
Russia'sJusticeMinistryhasaccusedtheMemorialhumanrightsorganizationofseekingtooverthrowtheRussiangovernment,Russianmedia
reportedTuesday.
MemorialreceivedaletterfromtheJusticeMinistryonNov.9accusingthemofunderminingtheconstitutionalorderoftheRussianFederation,
callingfortheoverthrowofthecurrentgovernmentandchangingthecountry'spoliticalregime,"chairmanoftheNGO'sboardAlexander
CherkasovwroteontheMemorialwebsiteonTuesday.
TheJusticeMinistry's15-pageletterandanyfurtheractionthatmaybetakenagainstthemwillbechallengedincourt,Memorialboardmember
OlegOrlovsaid,InterfaxreportedTuesday.
"Notasingleexamplewasgivenofacalltooverthrowthegovernment,butthereareexamplesofourcriticismoftheauthoritiesandour
disagreementwiththem,ourutterances.Apparently,nowcriticismoftheauthoritiesisequivalenttocallingfortheoverthrowofthegovernment,"
hesaid.
Orlovdoesnotknowwhattheconsequencesofthelettermaybe,buthedoesnotruleoutthepossibilitythatthegovernmentwillseektoclose
Memorial,Interfaxreported.
OnJuly21,2014,theMemorialhumanrightscenterwasincludedontheregisteroforganizationsthatperformthefunctionsofaforeignagent.
A2012lawrequiresNGOstolabelthemselvesforeignagentsiftheyreceivefundingfromabroadandengageinvaguelydefinedpolitical
activities.ThetermhasbeenslammedbycriticsassuggestiveofespionageandNGOsacrossthecountryhavefoughttoridthemselvesofthe
label.
http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/103596
NemtsovfamilylawyersVadimProkhorovandOlgaMikhailovahavesentalettertotheInvestigativeCommittee(SK)callingfor
MVDInternalTroopsCommanderViktorZolotovtobequestionedintheNemtsovmurderinvestigation.Theletternotesthat
someofthemurdersuspectsweremembersoftheSeverMVDInternalTroopsbattalionandthatKadyrovisafriendofZolotovs
thatshouldbeenoughfortheSKtoquestionZolotov.ThelawyersnotethatwheninvestigatorswereinChechnyalookingfor
RuslanGeremeyevandRuslanMukhudinovforquestioning,ZolotovturnedupinGroznyatameetingwithKadyrovandAdam
Delimkhanov(Seethe31Marchnotes).TheythinkZolotovshouldbequestionedaboutthatmeeting,aboutthesuspectswho
weremembersoftheSeverbattalionandabouttheplacementofFSOsurveillancecamerasinthevicinityofthesceneofthe
murder.
Comment:ImentionedZolotovaspossiblybeinginvolvedintheNemtsovmurderinthe6Novembernotes.Formore
onZolotov,seethenotesfrom7,8,and9Apriland26August.
http://www.rosbalt.ru/moscow/2015/11/09/1459193.html
AccordingtoRosbaltssources,bothGeremeyevandhisdriver/bodyguardMukhudinovhavebeenreclassifiedfromwitnessesto
suspectsinthecase.InvestigatorswereagaininChechnyaon9Novembertoquestionsfriendsandrelationsofbothmenabout
thewhereaboutsofthesuspectsandaboutwhetheranyofthosefriendsandrelationshadheardsomethingabouttheassassination
ofNemtsovbeingplanned.RosbaltsaysthattheinvestigatorsclaimthatitwasMukhudinovwhorecruitedthemenwhocarried
outthemurderandthathe,likethekillers,waspaid.Itfollowsthatifheisidentifiedbyinvestigatorsastheorganizerofthe
murder,thenGeremeyevwillbetappedasthezakazchik.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/89f59acc-8679-11e5-8a12-b0ce506400af.html#axzz3r8Azmioz
Itwasanacronymthatspawnedahostofsummits,adevelopmentbankanda$100bnbailoutfund.ButGoldmanSachs,oncethe
mostenergeticsponsoroftheBricinvestmenttheme,hasquietlysteppedawayfromit,mergingitsdedicatedin-housefundintoan
all-purposeemergingmarketsvehicle.
TheclosureoftheBricfundannouncedinafilingtotheSecuritiesandExchangeCommissioninSeptemberandspottedby
BloombergonSundaycameafterpoorperformanceandconsistentlaggingofbenchmarks.Assetsundermanagementhaddwindled
toabout$100m,fromapeakofmorethan$800mattheendof2010.
Byshuttingthefund,theWallStreetbankhassignalledanendofanerainwhichthefourdevelopingeconomiesBrazil,Russia,
IndiaandChinaappearedtobeshapinganewworldorder.Theacronymhadbeencoinedin2001byLordONeill,theUKTreasury
ministerandformerchiefeconomistatGoldman,whonotedthatrealGDPgrowthamongthequartethadsurpassedthatoftheG7
groupofmatureeconomies.GoldmansBricfundwasbornfiveyearslater,investingatleast80percentofitsnetassetsinBric
equities.
However,stockmarketshaveremainedveryvolatileandthemuch-vauntedtransferofeconomicandpoliticalpowerisyettocometo
pass.Brazilseconomyissettoshrink3percentthisyear,accordingtothelatestInternationalMonetaryFundforecasts,whileRussia
grapplingwithacollapseinresourcespricesandtheeffectsofinternationalsanctionsshouldcontractby3.8percent.
Meanwhile,althoughChinaisstillreportingstrongfigures,manydoubtthedata,wonderinghowaneconomythathasexperiencednear-
20percentfallsinimportvolumesforthepastcoupleofmonthscanreallybegrowingatanannualrateofabout7percent.India
remainsarelativesafehaven,oncoursetomatchlastyears7.3percentgrowth.
Overthelastdecadeemerging-marketinvestinghasevolvedfrombeingtacticalandopportunistictobeingastrategicpartofmost
assetallocations,saidAndrewWilliams,aspokespersonforGoldman.
Wecontinuetorecommendthatourclientshaveexposuretoemergingmarketsacrossassetclassesaspartoftheirstrategicasset
allocation.
TheBricgroupofcountrieswhichbecamefivein2010withtheadditionofSouthAfricaremainsdeterminedtoimposeitselfasa
distinctgeopoliticalforce.In2012,atthefourthBricssummitinIndia,thegroupunveiledplanstosetupadevelopmentbanktorivalthe
AmericanandEuropean-denominatedWorldBankandIMF,andlastyear,inBrazil,advancedtheideaofareservefundtoease
balance-of-paymentspressures.
Butinapaperpublishedlastmonth,entitledDotheBricsstillmatter?,academicsfromtheCenterforStrategic&InternationalStudies
arguedthatmembersconflictinginterestsandindisputablepolitical,socialandculturaldifferenceswouldlikelykeeptheblocfrom
translatingitseconomicheftintocollectivepoliticalpowerontheglobalstage.
Thegroupingremainsprimarilyrhetorical,notconcrete,wroteCarlMeacham,directoroftheAmericasprogrammeattheWashington,
DC-basedresearchinstitution.Andthelackoftangibleachievementsbodesillforthegroupslong-termsurvival.
Senttime: 11/11/201512:33:59PM

INTHISISSUE
*RussiaandSerbiapushforclosereconomicties,armssales
*SecuritysituationinKabardino-Balkariacontinuestobetense
*ElectionsinDonetsk-Luhanskremainahardsell
*RegionalsecuritychallengesboostBelarussimportanceforRussiaandtheWest


Belgrade,MoscowDeepenRelationsasEUOffersSerbiaFurtherEuropean
Integration

HistorictiesbetweenRussiaandSerbiaaredeepeningevenastheEuropeanUnionattempts
toimproveitsownrelationshipwithBelgrade.Sincethebeginningoftheyear,Russiahas
soughttoincreaseitstradewithSerbia,whilethelatterhaspursuedRussianassistancein
upgradingitsmilitarycapabilities(see EDM,September8).Consequently,Serbiaisnow
emergingasacountrywherecompetingpoliciesoftheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionand
Russiavieforinfluence.Inrecentmonths,EUofficialsandinstitutionsrepeatedly
recommendedthatthefirstaccessionchaptersonSerbiasmembershipintheeconomic-
politicalblocbeopenedbyearlynextyear,followingtheEuropeanCouncilsdecisiontoratify
BelgradescandidatestatusinDecember2013(B92, October13, November11).Inturn,
RussiacontinuestowooSerbiawithtradeandenergydeals(Dnevnik,October31).But
whiletheeventualformofSerbian-EUrelationshasyettoemerge,Russiasoverridinginterest
inSerbiaremainstokeepthisstrategicallycentralBalkancountryfromdrawingclosertothe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO).

Russian-Serbianrelations,basedonreligiousandlinguisticaffinities,datebacktothelatter
nationsemergencefromOttomandominationintheearly19thcenturyacenturylater,this
bondwouldleadtotheoutbreakofWorldWarI,asRussiamobilizeditstroopstodefend
SerbiafromAustro-Hungarianattack.RelationsenduredthefragmentationofYugoslavia,
whichbeganin1990,andthe1991collapseoftheSovietUnion.RussiaprovidedSerbia
diplomaticsupportandprotestedNATOs1999bombingofthecountry.Moreover,overthe
pastdecade,SerbiafiguredprominentlyinRussianplanstotransitnaturalgastoEurope,
althoughthevariousproposedpipelineprojectshavestalleduptonow.

MutualdiplomaticsupportisperhapsthemostnotableelementofSerbian-Russianrelations
today.AndtheleadingexampleisRussiasconsistentdenialofdiplomaticrecognitionto
KosovosincethelattersunilateraldeclarationofindependencefromSerbiainFebruary
2008,afternineyearsasaUnitedNationsprotectorate.Inturn,Serbiawasoneofthefew
EuropeancountriesthatdidnotissuesanctionsagainstRussiaforitsMarch2014annexation
ofCrimea.
Beyonddiplomacy,RussiaandSerbiaareseekingtobolstertheireconomicrelationsdespite
geographicconstraints.OnOctober22,RussiaandSerbiasignedaMemorandumof
Understanding(MoU)toincreasetheirfieldofeconomiccooperation,attractinvestmentsand
developjointprojects(DecreeoftheGovernmentoftheRussianFederation,No.2120-r,
October22).
Dayslater,onOctober26,SerbianPresidentAleksanderVuibeganathree-dayofficial
visittoRussia,spendingmuchofhistimeindiscussionswithPrimeMinisterDmitry
Medvedev,whohaddirectedhisgovernmenttosigntheMoU.Vuiwasaccompaniedby
severalministersand100Serbianbusinessmen.ArmspurchaseswerehighonVuis
agenda,asneighboringCroatia,incooperationwiththeUS,recentlylaunchedaweapons
procurementprogramthatincludessixteenKiowacombathelicoptersandsixteen240-
millimeterballisticmissilelauncherswitha200-milerange.TheSerbianheadofstatetold
reportersinMoscow,Wearefollowingwhatishappeningintheregionandwillnotallowa
militaryimbalance.Whenaskedaboutthepurposeofthehelicopters,Vuireplied,Ask
ourneighbors(Blic,October26).Thispastyear,RussiahasagreedtorefurbishfourSerbian
AirForceMiG-29sandtenMiG-21s.Moreover,itpromisedtoprovideSerbiawithseveral
state-of-the-artMi-17andMi-171helicoptersatadiscountedprice(Telegraf,April21).
EnergywasalsonotneglectedduringVuisvisit.Inparticular,hesignedanMoUwith
GazpromchairmanAlexeiMiller,coveringRussiangassuppliestoSerbiaanditsunderground
gasstorage(UGS)facilities.Theagreementbuiltupona2013contractthatrequiredGazprom
todeliverupto1.5billioncubicmeters(bcm)ofnaturalgastoSerbiaovertheensuing
decade(B92,October28).
OnOctober29,beforehemetwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinfortalks,Vuitold
journalists,OnbehalfoftheSerbiangovernment,Iwouldliketothankyou[theRussian
government]forthesupportyouhavegivenusbothintheUN,UNESCOandother
organizations,whereSerbiaistryingtoprotectnotonlyitsterritorialintegritybutalsoits
liberty-lovingspiritanditswayoflife.Iwouldliketonotethatthesituationintheworldat
largeiscomplicatedthesituationisjustascomplicatedintheBalkans.InBrussels,wehave
signedanagreementwithPristinawehavesignedmanydocuments,buttoday,thepresident
ofKosovostatedthat[hiscountrydoes]notplantoimplementthemostimportantofthemat
all[referringtotheagreementontheformationtheCommunityofSerbianMunicipalitiesin
Kosovo]andthatisverysadnewsforus(Kremlin.ru,Kim.gov.rs,October29)
AnothercommonelementinRussianandSerbianpolicyisoppositiontoNATO.Oftheseven
countriesthatformerlycomprisedYugoslavia,SloveniajoinedNATOin2004andCroatiain
2009,whileBosnia-Herzegovina,MontenegroandMacedoniaareaspiringmembersofthe
Alliance(Nato.int,August20,2013)Serbiahasexpressednointerestinmembership,even
though,in2006,itjoinedNATOsPartnershipforPeace(PfP)programand,inJanuary
2015,agreedtodeepenitscooperationwiththeAlliancethroughanIndividualPartnership
ActionPlan.OnNovember3,SerbiasambassadortoRussia,SlavenkoTerzic,said,Ido
notseeanystabilityguaranteesinNATOsexpansionintheBalkansandinthecentralregion
ofEurope.Europemustbefreeofmilitaryalliances,liveinpeaceandaccord.Serbiawill
insistonitspoliticalneutrality.WearenotgettingreadytojoinNATO(TASS,November3).
NATOacknowledgesthisdisinclination,notingonitswebsite,UnlikeotherWesternBalkan
partners,SerbiadoesnotaspiretojointheAlliance.However,thecountryisdeepeningits
politicaldialogueandcooperationwithNATOonissuesofcommoninterest(Nato.int,
October26)
AsNATOexpandsitsoperationsaroundRussiasperipheryandpondersadmittingBosnia-
Herzegovina,MontenegroandMacedonia,bothRussiaandSerbiaincreasinglyperceivethe
NorthAtlanticAllianceashavingless-than-benignintentions.IftheWesthopestolessen
RussianinfluenceinBelgrade,thenitstrumpcardiseconomicintegrationandeventualEU
membership.Yet,whetherrecession-wrackedEuropehasthepoliticalandeconomiccloutto
pressforwardonthatfrontremainstobeseen.
--JohnC.K.Daly
Kabardino-BalkarianExpertsSaySourcesofInstabilityinRepublicAreUnchanged
InaninterviewwiththewebsiteKavkazskayaPolitika,Kabardino-BalkariasDeputy
InteriorMinisterKazbekTatuevdescribedtherepublicsongoingsecuritydilemmas.
Accordingtotheofficial,theundergroundmovementintherepublicisstructuredaccordingto
administrativedivisionsfeaturingan amirandhisdeputies(naibs)ineachsector.Tatuev
rejectedaccusationsmadebymanyrightsactivistsofpolicebrutality,sayingthatthepolicein
therepublicnevershootsfirstattherebels.Contrarytomultipleaccountsofwitnessesand
rightsactivists,thepoliceofficialclaimedthatgovernmentforcesalwaysallowsurrounded
rebelstosurrender.AmongthemostdubiousaspectsofTatuevsassertionswerethestatistics
heprovided,includinghisclaimthattheinsurgencyinKabardino-Balkariaiscurrently
comprisedoffewerthan20peopleandneverexceeded70people(Kavkazskaya
Politika,November5).
Thestatisticsfor2011,however,indicatethat80suspectedmilitantswerekilledin
Kabardino-Balkariaalone,meaningthatin2011,atleast,thereapparentlyweremorethan70
militantsintherepublic(KavkazskyUzel,January12,2012).Inaddition,Kabardino-
BalkariasdeputyinteriorministerforgotthatintheinfamousattackonNalchik,onOctober
13,2005,governmentforcesclaimedtheykillednearly100rebelsandarrestedover70
suspects.Mostofthesuspectssubsequentlyreceivedharshprisonsentencesandsomedied
incustody.FormerGuantanamoBaydetaineeRasulKudaevalsoreceivedalengthysentence
andwasrecognizedasapoliticalprisonerbytheMemorialhumanrightscenterin2013
(KavkazskyUzel,October13).
GivenTatuevssketchynumbersconcerningtheIslamicinsurgencyinKabardino-Balkaria,the
figuresheprovidesonthenumberofmilitantswholeftKabardino-Balkariatofightinthe
MiddleEastmayalsobeinaccurate,tosaytheleast.Tatuevasserted:Wehaveeveryreason
tosuspectseveraldozenpeopleofparticipationininternationalterroristorganizations.We
havelaunchedcriminalprobesintothosecasesonthebasisofArticle208oftheRussian
CriminalCode[EstablishmentoforParticipationinanIllegalArmedGroup].Onesuch
individualwastriedandsentencedtothreeyearsinprisonlastyearforparticipationin
internationalterroristorganizations(KavkazskayaPolitika,November5).
TherealfiguresmaybesignificantlyhigherbecauseKabardino-Balkariahasstrongtieswith
theCircassiandiasporainTurkeyandauthoritieshavehaddifficultyfollowingwhopassed
throughTurkeywhiletravelingtoSyriaandwhoremainsinTurkeyforotherpurposes.
DespitethelowerlevelofviolenceinKabardino-Balkariatoday,thethreattheinsurgency
posesintherepublicappearstoremainquitesignificant.TheNalchik-basedhumanrights
activistValeryKhatazhukovsaidinaninterviewthispastsummerthateverytwotothree
years,theleadersofthearmedundergroundareeliminatedduetosomeluckycoincidence,
andthesituationcalmsdown.However,thesocial,economicandpoliticalconditionsthat
breeddiscontentdonotdisappear,sotheinsurgencyeventuallyreemerges.Therightsactivist
alsosaidthatthegovernmentcommissionforadaptingrebelstocivilianlifeinKabardino-
Balkariaispracticallynotfunctioning,sincetherepublicsleadershipgiveslittlesupporttoits
work.AccordingtoKhatazhukov,100150residentsoftherepubliclefttogoandfightin
Syria.Kabardino-Balkariasgovernmenthasturnedablindeyetoyoungpeoplewhoseekto
jointheinsurgencyintheMiddleEast,promptlyprovidingthemwithforeignpassports,
accordingtoKhatazhukov(KavkazskayaPolitika,July29).
Kabardino-BalkariasDeputyInteriorMinisterTatuevprovidedaglimpseofhowpervasive
theinsurgencyisintherepublic.Somehavehighereducationdegrees,theyhaveavarietyof
statuses,someareunemployed,hesaid.[Kabardino-Balkarian]graduatesofMoscow
universitiesjointheinsurgencysomeofthemilitantsareformermedicalschoolstudents.
Othersjoinedtheinsurgencyimmediatelyafterschoolorafterrunningtheirbusinesses
(KavkazskayaPolitika,November5).
Thepoliticalsideoftheinsurgencyintherepublicisconsciouslyignoredbythegovernment.
Fordecades,Kabardino-Balkariahasnothadfreeandfairelectionsanditsgovernmenthas
beenplaguedbypersistentcorruption.AlongwithotherNorthCaucasianrepublics,itis
amongthepoorestRussianregions,andsinceitsresidentshavenosayinpoliticalaffairsor
changingtheirfuture,somechooseviolenceasameanstoforcepoliticalchange.Theuseof
illegalpolicingmethodsintherepublicfurtherantagonizesdisenfranchisedindividualsand
providessupporttotheinsurgency(KavkazskayaPolitika,July29).
ThistrendislikelytocontinueandevenintensifybecauseRussiaasawholefacesastagnant
politicalandeconomicenvironmentandworseningeconomicconditions.PresidentVladimir
PutinscrusadeagainstUkraine,theSyrianrebelsandtheWestmaytemporarilyhelpthe
RussiangovernmentrelievethetensionsintheNorthCaucasusbecausetheRussian
populationtendstoforgetaboutitseconomicandpoliticalwoeswhilerallyingaroundthe
flag.However,thatcrusadecannotlastforanextendedperiod,andtherealitiesonthe
groundwillforcecitizenstoreassesstheirloyaltiestothestateonceagain.
--ValeryDzutsati
NormandyGroupMicromanagingFakeElectionPreparationsinDonetsk-Luhansk
GermanysForeignAffairsMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierhostedameetingofhisRussian,
French,andUkrainiancounterparts(Normandygroup),onNovember6,inBerlin,toliftthe
DecemberdeadlineontheimplementationoftheMinskarmisticeinUkraine.Thismove,a
foregoneconclusion,mayturnthearmisticeimplementationintoaprotractedstalemate,with
Russiaholdingtheupperhand(seeEDM,November10).
Withthismove,WesternpowersandRussiaareshiftingtheemphasisfromthemilitarytothe
politicalclausesoftheMinskarmistice.Highlyunusualforanarmistice,andunprecedented
amongthepost-Sovieterasconservedconflicts,theMinskdocumentsarelargelypoliticalin
content,demandingofUkrainetolegalizeRussiasarmedproxiesthroughlocalelectionsand
aconstitutionalstatus.Thisiswheretheemphasishasshiftedinthearmisticeimplementation
process.
ItwastheNormandytopleadersOctober2meetinginParisthatsignaledtheshift.There,
theRussian,German,andFrenchleadersapprovedthePierreMorelPlanonthelegality
andmodalitiesofstagingelectionsincertainareasoftheDonetskandLuhanskprovinces
(Russian-controlledpeoplesrepublics).Oncethoseelectionsareheldandvalidated,the
threeNormandypowerswouldaskUkrainetobringthelawonspecialproceduresfor
self-administrationofcertainareasintheDonetskandLuhanskprovinces(oftenreferenced
asspecialstatus,andmeanwhileenshrinedinUkrainesconstitution)intoeffect.Ukrainian
PresidentPetroPoroshenkohadtermedtheproposedelectionsfakeelections,andthe
MoreldocumentasMr.MorelspersonalopinionbutKyivhadnochoiceotherthanto
enterintonegotiationsonthisbasisaftertheParissummit(seeEDM,October9,13,29).
TheprocesslaunchedbytheOctober2summitinPariscontinuedbehindthecloseddoorsof
theContactGroupinMinskandcameupforreviewattheNovember6ministerialmeetingin
Berlin.There,Steinmeierlistedfiveofthethorniestissuesconcerninglocalelectionsinthose
certainareas(Auswaertiges-amt.de,November6):
1)Voterstatusofinternallydisplacedpersons(IDPs,theirtotalnumberexceedingonemillion)
whofledfromthecertainareasintoUkrainesinterior.KyivinsistsonsecuringtheIDPs
righttovoteandrighttoseekelectiveofficeintheirhomelocalities,whereasDonetsk-
LuhanskauthoritieswouldapparentlydisenfranchisetheIDPs.Curiously,nomentionisyet
madeofthemorethanonemillionIDPswhofledfromthecertainareastoRussia,and
wouldpresumablyvoteagainstanypro-Ukrainecandidates.
2)Eligibilityofpoliticalpartiestoentertheircandidates.Steinmeiersreadoutoftheministerial
meetingdidnotgointospecifics,butsomeoftheseareknown.TheauthoritiesintheDonetsk
andLuhanskpeoplesrepublicsrejecttheparticipationofexponentsoftheformerPartyof
Regionsintheselocalelections.ThisterritoryusedtobethePartyofRegionsmain
stronghold.However,theregimechangeinthespringof2014inDonetskandLuhanskwas
farmoreradicalthanKyivsregimechange.Thepeoplesrepublicsleaderssuspectthat
KyivmightworkwithcertainDonetskoligarchs,themselvesIDPsinKyivatpresent,to
return,participateinthelocalelectionsandrestoresomedegreeofKyivsinfluencethere.The
peoplesrepublicsalsorejecttheparticipationofUkrainianfar-rightpartiesintheselocal
elections.Foritspart,Kyivwantstheguaranteedparticipationofpartiesthathadlocal
branchesinthisterritorypriorto2014.Thiscriterionwouldensuretheparticipationof
Ukrainianparties,includingexponentsoftheformerPartyofRegions,whileimplicitly
excludingfar-rightparties.
3)AccesstoUkrainianmassmediaandtherulesofUkrainianjournalistsaccreditation.The
peoplesrepublicsauthoritieswanttoregulatethesemattersthemselves.Russiantelevision
channelswouldinfluencetheseelectionsmostheavily,butthismattercouldhardlyhavebeen
discussedintheNormandyformatwithRussia.
4)Electionmonitoring.Intriguingly,Steinmeierraisedthequestioninhisreadoutofthe
Normandymeeting:Willtheseelectionsbemonitored?Andbywhom,ifnotbythe
OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope[OSCE]?Apparently,Moscowand
Donetsk-LuhanskwantRussia-friendlyorganizationse.g.,Europeanfringepartiesthat
monitoredthe2014CrimeareferendumandDonetsk-Luhanskelectionstobeinvited,
alongsidetheOSCEsOfficeofDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRights(ODIHR),to
monitorandevaluatetheseelections,adulteratingOSCE/ODIHRcriteria.Accordingto
UkrainianForeignAffairsMinisterPavloKlimkin,TheRussiansideintheNormandyformat
oftensaysthattherearenodefinitecriteriaforevaluatingelections.Duringministerialmeetings
IhaverepeatedlyshownthemOSCEdocumentswheresuchcriteriaarelisted.Russiaisa
signatorytothosedocuments(Segodnya,October23).
5)ApplicabilityofUkraineselectorallegislationandroleofUkrainesCentralElectoral
Commission(CEC).Theearlierpretensethattheselocalelectionswouldbeheldonthebasis
ofUkraineselectorallegislation(indeed,aspartofUkrainescountry-widelocalelections)
hasbeendropped.AccordingtoSteinmeier,whileUkrainesCECcannotbeexcluded,the
legalbasiswouldbeagreeduponbetweentheparties[KyivandDonetsk-Luhansk],taking
intoaccounttheDonbasregionsinterests.AndaccordingtotheQuaidOrsaysreadoutof
MinisterLaurentFabiussparticipationinthisNormandymeeting,theseelectionswouldbe
basedonmodalitiesagreeduponbytheparties(Diplomatie.gouv.fr,November6).
Russia,GermanyandFrancewillundoubtedlytrytofinessethesemodalitiesinthe
NormandyandMinskContactGroupprocesses.TheyseempreparedtostagewhatUkraine
characterizesasfakeelectionsbytechnicalcriteria.Buttheyskirtthefundamentalissues.
ElectionsheldinthepresenceofRussianforces,policedbyDonetskandLuhanskpeoples
republicunlawfularmedformations(peoplesmilitia),withoutlegitimatecourtstohear
complaints,andoutsidetheframeworkofUkrainesconstitutionalguarantees,wouldbe
illegitimateelectionsabinitio.
--VladimirSocor
BelarusandPublishedOpinion-Making
InearlyNovember,journalistsandanalystsconvenedinTallinn,Estonia,forthefifthannual
meetingoftheRubiconconferencefullydevotedtoissuespertainingtoBelarus.Thisyear,
themajortopicwasBelarusasafactorofregionalsecurityandstability.Theparticipants
wereunabletocometoaconsensusonwhetherBelarusianPresidentAlyaksandr
LukashenkaisaKremlinvassalorwhetherthetailmayactuallybewaggingthedog.Roman
Yakovlevsky,whoisactiveon Charter97,themostrigidonlineoppositionoutlet,and
ArkadyMoshes,oftheFinnishInstituteforInternationalAffairs,leanedtowardtheformer
qualification.Whereas,ValerKarbalevichandYuryDrakakhrustoftheBelarusianserviceof
RadioLibertyinsistedonthelatter.Karbalevichevenopinedthatinforeignaffairs,Belarusis
muchmoreindependentfromRussiathanEstoniaisfromtheEuropeanUnionortheNorth
AtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO).Thereare[typically]nowarsbetweenavassaland
thesuzerain,declaredKarbalevich,whereasallsortsofwarsfromthoseonnaturalgasto
informationwarsbrokeoutrepeatedlybetweenMinskandMoscowandevennow,the
partiesareinaclinchabouttheissueoftheRussianairbase,whichRussiawantstoopenon
Belarusianterritory.SincetheannexationofUkrainesCrimeanpeninsulawasgreatlyaidedby
theRussiannavalbaseinSevastopol,itisperfectlyunderstandablewhyLukashenkaisfirmly
againsttheRussianairbaseinitiative(Naviny.by,November4).
Thesituation,however,islessstraightforwardthanitseemsapointthatunbending
democracypromotersintheWesthavehadahardtimegrasping.Thus,accordingto
Drakakhrust,ifBelarussregimesomehowgiveswaytoapro-Europeangovernment,the
entirecountrycouldpossiblybecomeaDonbasofsorts,asevennowabout20percentof
Belarusiansareaggressivelypro-Russian.AccordingtotheRussianliberalanalystVladislav
Inozemtsev,thecurrentpoliticalregimesinRussiaandBelaruswilllingeruntilthephysical
deathoftheirleaders.Yet,inbothcases,thiswillbefollowedbychaosbecausethe
personalisticregimesdonotlendthemselvestopeacefulsuccessions.Inozemtsevalso
claimedthatBelarushasnoreasontofearfallingoutofRussianPresidentVladimirPutins
favorbecausetheEurasianintegrationprojectistooimportantforhimandhowever
paradoxicalitmayseem,BelaruscancountonobtaininganythingitwantsfromRussia
(Naviny.by,November4).
SeveralparticipantsoftheconferencearguedthatLukashenka,facedwitheconomic
problems,willimitatereformsbutwillhardlymovebeyondthat.Indeed,severaldaysafterthe
conference,LukashenkasaideKirillRudyideclaredthereisnograssrootsdemandfor
economicreforminBelarus.Tocounterthat,AlexanderKlaskovsky,aveteranopposition
journalist,quotedearly20thcenturyAmericanautomobilemanufacturerHenryFord:IfIhad
askedpeoplewhattheywanted,theywouldhavesaidfasterhorses.Inanycase,according
toSergeiNikolyuk,aBelarusianpoliticalphilosopher,thetypeofpopularlegitimationofthe
existingpoliticalregimeinBelarushasrecentlychanged.Whereasforalongtime,itwas
loyaltyinexchangeforincome,nowitisloyaltyinexchangeforsurvival.TheUkrainian
crisisshouldbecreditedwiththissortofshift.AndreiVardomatski,asociologist,wordedthis
slightlydifferentlywhenheremarkedthatLukashenkaspopularityrating,formerlybasedon
theeconomy,isnowfundamentallyasecurityrating.AsNikolyukargued,inBelarus,the
threatofneo-totalitarianismistheresponseofaninadequatelymodernizedsocietytomodern
challenges.BothLukashenkaandabout60percentofallBelarusiansareleeryof
competition,andtheentirecultureisnotinnovation-prone(Naviny.by,November5).
Thebeleagueredandself-annihilatingBelarusianoppositionwasalsonotsparedcriticismat
theconference.AlexanderYaroshuk,atradeunionleader,evenproposedthatitistimeforall
theoppositionpartiestodisbandandtocreateamassmovementmodeledafterthePolish
Solidarityofthe1980s(Euroradio.fm,November3).Indeed,severaldaysafterthe
conference,fiveBelarusianoppositionleaderssignedapetitionaskingtheEUtoorganizean
intra-Belarusiandialogueaboutdemocratization(Tut.by,November3).Butthisgesturecame
acrosstomanypoliticallymindedBelarusiansasasymptomofthedomesticoppositions
ultimatehelplessness.Afterall,theauthoritarianregimewillonlytalktoastrongadversary,
whichtheBelarusianoppositionisnot(Naviny.by,November5).Predictably,Tatyana
Korotkevich,theonlymemberoftheoppositionwhohadcollectedtheminimum100,000
signaturesneededtorunintheOctober2015presidentialelections,didnotsignthepetition.
PavlyukBykovsky(nowafreelancer,butformerlylongassociatedwiththenewspaper
BelarusyiRynok)opined,however,thatKorotkevichprovedthetheorylongadvocatedby
Nikolyuk,accordingtowhichitdoesnotmatterwhotheoppositionspresidentialcandidate
wouldbeheorshecouldcountonaboutone-fifthoftheelectoratenomatterwhat,dueto
theossifiednatureofBelarusiansocietyanddomesticpolitics.Evenmyapoliticalwifewould
beabletowinthevoiceofthispartoftheelectorate,Nikolyukrepeatedlyclaimed.Theone-
fightfigure,infact,roughlycorrespondedwiththeportionofvoterspredictedtoback
Korotkevich,accordingtosurveysconductedpriortothepresidentialelections(Naviny.by,
November8seeEDM,October7,20).
ConsideringtheoppositionsmorassaswellastheLukashenkagovernmentsseemingly
unshakablepowerpositionanditspoliciesofcautiouslyreachingouttotheWest,itislittle
wonderthatthespokesmenandenvoysoftheWesternworldincreasinglyseeofficialMinsk
astheonlyreasonablenegotiationpartner.Recently,tworepresentativesoftheUSState
DepartmentDeputyAssistantSecretariesBridgetBrinkandRobertBerschinskimade
someencouragingandfriendlystatementsuponvisitingtheBelarusiancapital.Evenregarding
thepotentialRussianairbase,theydeclaredthatWashingtonhasalwaysbeeninfavorofeach
countrychoosingmilitaryalliesonitsown(Tut.by,November5).Inturn,theWorldBank
commendedtheNationalBankofBelarusforitscommitmenttoreformandevenwarned,
quiterealistically,thatreforminganeconomythatisunstablecouldbringaboutunforeseen
consequences(Tut.by,November2).
AsWinstonChurchilloncequipped,Thereisnosuchthingaspublicopinion.Thereisonly
publishedopinion.ItseemsthepublishedopinionaboutBelarusischanginganditnotable
thatBelarusitselfhashadlittletodowiththischange.Buttheexternalfactorsthataretruly
bringingitaboutmakeoneeternallyskepticalabouttheprocessofpublishedopinion-making
assuch.
--GrigoryIoffe
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Senttime: 11/11/201512:33:59PM

INTHISISSUE
*RussiaandSerbiapushforclosereconomicties,armssales
*SecuritysituationinKabardino-Balkariacontinuestobetense
*ElectionsinDonetsk-Luhanskremainahardsell
*RegionalsecuritychallengesboostBelarussimportanceforRussiaandtheWest


Belgrade,MoscowDeepenRelationsasEUOffersSerbiaFurtherEuropean
Integration

HistorictiesbetweenRussiaandSerbiaaredeepeningevenastheEuropeanUnionattempts
toimproveitsownrelationshipwithBelgrade.Sincethebeginningoftheyear,Russiahas
soughttoincreaseitstradewithSerbia,whilethelatterhaspursuedRussianassistancein
upgradingitsmilitarycapabilities(see EDM,September8).Consequently,Serbiaisnow
emergingasacountrywherecompetingpoliciesoftheUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionand
Russiavieforinfluence.Inrecentmonths,EUofficialsandinstitutionsrepeatedly
recommendedthatthefirstaccessionchaptersonSerbiasmembershipintheeconomic-
politicalblocbeopenedbyearlynextyear,followingtheEuropeanCouncilsdecisiontoratify
BelgradescandidatestatusinDecember2013(B92, October13, November11).Inturn,
RussiacontinuestowooSerbiawithtradeandenergydeals(Dnevnik,October31).But
whiletheeventualformofSerbian-EUrelationshasyettoemerge,Russiasoverridinginterest
inSerbiaremainstokeepthisstrategicallycentralBalkancountryfromdrawingclosertothe
NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO).

Russian-Serbianrelations,basedonreligiousandlinguisticaffinities,datebacktothelatter
nationsemergencefromOttomandominationintheearly19thcenturyacenturylater,this
bondwouldleadtotheoutbreakofWorldWarI,asRussiamobilizeditstroopstodefend
SerbiafromAustro-Hungarianattack.RelationsenduredthefragmentationofYugoslavia,
whichbeganin1990,andthe1991collapseoftheSovietUnion.RussiaprovidedSerbia
diplomaticsupportandprotestedNATOs1999bombingofthecountry.Moreover,overthe
pastdecade,SerbiafiguredprominentlyinRussianplanstotransitnaturalgastoEurope,
althoughthevariousproposedpipelineprojectshavestalleduptonow.

MutualdiplomaticsupportisperhapsthemostnotableelementofSerbian-Russianrelations
today.AndtheleadingexampleisRussiasconsistentdenialofdiplomaticrecognitionto
KosovosincethelattersunilateraldeclarationofindependencefromSerbiainFebruary
2008,afternineyearsasaUnitedNationsprotectorate.Inturn,Serbiawasoneofthefew
EuropeancountriesthatdidnotissuesanctionsagainstRussiaforitsMarch2014annexation
ofCrimea.
Beyonddiplomacy,RussiaandSerbiaareseekingtobolstertheireconomicrelationsdespite
geographicconstraints.OnOctober22,RussiaandSerbiasignedaMemorandumof
Understanding(MoU)toincreasetheirfieldofeconomiccooperation,attractinvestmentsand
developjointprojects(DecreeoftheGovernmentoftheRussianFederation,No.2120-r,
October22).
Dayslater,onOctober26,SerbianPresidentAleksanderVuibeganathree-dayofficial
visittoRussia,spendingmuchofhistimeindiscussionswithPrimeMinisterDmitry
Medvedev,whohaddirectedhisgovernmenttosigntheMoU.Vuiwasaccompaniedby
severalministersand100Serbianbusinessmen.ArmspurchaseswerehighonVuis
agenda,asneighboringCroatia,incooperationwiththeUS,recentlylaunchedaweapons
procurementprogramthatincludessixteenKiowacombathelicoptersandsixteen240-
millimeterballisticmissilelauncherswitha200-milerange.TheSerbianheadofstatetold
reportersinMoscow,Wearefollowingwhatishappeningintheregionandwillnotallowa
militaryimbalance.Whenaskedaboutthepurposeofthehelicopters,Vuireplied,Ask
ourneighbors(Blic,October26).Thispastyear,RussiahasagreedtorefurbishfourSerbian
AirForceMiG-29sandtenMiG-21s.Moreover,itpromisedtoprovideSerbiawithseveral
state-of-the-artMi-17andMi-171helicoptersatadiscountedprice(Telegraf,April21).
EnergywasalsonotneglectedduringVuisvisit.Inparticular,hesignedanMoUwith
GazpromchairmanAlexeiMiller,coveringRussiangassuppliestoSerbiaanditsunderground
gasstorage(UGS)facilities.Theagreementbuiltupona2013contractthatrequiredGazprom
todeliverupto1.5billioncubicmeters(bcm)ofnaturalgastoSerbiaovertheensuing
decade(B92,October28).
OnOctober29,beforehemetwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinfortalks,Vuitold
journalists,OnbehalfoftheSerbiangovernment,Iwouldliketothankyou[theRussian
government]forthesupportyouhavegivenusbothintheUN,UNESCOandother
organizations,whereSerbiaistryingtoprotectnotonlyitsterritorialintegritybutalsoits
liberty-lovingspiritanditswayoflife.Iwouldliketonotethatthesituationintheworldat
largeiscomplicatedthesituationisjustascomplicatedintheBalkans.InBrussels,wehave
signedanagreementwithPristinawehavesignedmanydocuments,buttoday,thepresident
ofKosovostatedthat[hiscountrydoes]notplantoimplementthemostimportantofthemat
all[referringtotheagreementontheformationtheCommunityofSerbianMunicipalitiesin
Kosovo]andthatisverysadnewsforus(Kremlin.ru,Kim.gov.rs,October29)
AnothercommonelementinRussianandSerbianpolicyisoppositiontoNATO.Oftheseven
countriesthatformerlycomprisedYugoslavia,SloveniajoinedNATOin2004andCroatiain
2009,whileBosnia-Herzegovina,MontenegroandMacedoniaareaspiringmembersofthe
Alliance(Nato.int,August20,2013)Serbiahasexpressednointerestinmembership,even
though,in2006,itjoinedNATOsPartnershipforPeace(PfP)programand,inJanuary
2015,agreedtodeepenitscooperationwiththeAlliancethroughanIndividualPartnership
ActionPlan.OnNovember3,SerbiasambassadortoRussia,SlavenkoTerzic,said,Ido
notseeanystabilityguaranteesinNATOsexpansionintheBalkansandinthecentralregion
ofEurope.Europemustbefreeofmilitaryalliances,liveinpeaceandaccord.Serbiawill
insistonitspoliticalneutrality.WearenotgettingreadytojoinNATO(TASS,November3).
NATOacknowledgesthisdisinclination,notingonitswebsite,UnlikeotherWesternBalkan
partners,SerbiadoesnotaspiretojointheAlliance.However,thecountryisdeepeningits
politicaldialogueandcooperationwithNATOonissuesofcommoninterest(Nato.int,
October26)
AsNATOexpandsitsoperationsaroundRussiasperipheryandpondersadmittingBosnia-
Herzegovina,MontenegroandMacedonia,bothRussiaandSerbiaincreasinglyperceivethe
NorthAtlanticAllianceashavingless-than-benignintentions.IftheWesthopestolessen
RussianinfluenceinBelgrade,thenitstrumpcardiseconomicintegrationandeventualEU
membership.Yet,whetherrecession-wrackedEuropehasthepoliticalandeconomiccloutto
pressforwardonthatfrontremainstobeseen.
--JohnC.K.Daly
Kabardino-BalkarianExpertsSaySourcesofInstabilityinRepublicAreUnchanged
InaninterviewwiththewebsiteKavkazskayaPolitika,Kabardino-BalkariasDeputy
InteriorMinisterKazbekTatuevdescribedtherepublicsongoingsecuritydilemmas.
Accordingtotheofficial,theundergroundmovementintherepublicisstructuredaccordingto
administrativedivisionsfeaturingan amirandhisdeputies(naibs)ineachsector.Tatuev
rejectedaccusationsmadebymanyrightsactivistsofpolicebrutality,sayingthatthepolicein
therepublicnevershootsfirstattherebels.Contrarytomultipleaccountsofwitnessesand
rightsactivists,thepoliceofficialclaimedthatgovernmentforcesalwaysallowsurrounded
rebelstosurrender.AmongthemostdubiousaspectsofTatuevsassertionswerethestatistics
heprovided,includinghisclaimthattheinsurgencyinKabardino-Balkariaiscurrently
comprisedoffewerthan20peopleandneverexceeded70people(Kavkazskaya
Politika,November5).
Thestatisticsfor2011,however,indicatethat80suspectedmilitantswerekilledin
Kabardino-Balkariaalone,meaningthatin2011,atleast,thereapparentlyweremorethan70
militantsintherepublic(KavkazskyUzel,January12,2012).Inaddition,Kabardino-
BalkariasdeputyinteriorministerforgotthatintheinfamousattackonNalchik,onOctober
13,2005,governmentforcesclaimedtheykillednearly100rebelsandarrestedover70
suspects.Mostofthesuspectssubsequentlyreceivedharshprisonsentencesandsomedied
incustody.FormerGuantanamoBaydetaineeRasulKudaevalsoreceivedalengthysentence
andwasrecognizedasapoliticalprisonerbytheMemorialhumanrightscenterin2013
(KavkazskyUzel,October13).
GivenTatuevssketchynumbersconcerningtheIslamicinsurgencyinKabardino-Balkaria,the
figuresheprovidesonthenumberofmilitantswholeftKabardino-Balkariatofightinthe
MiddleEastmayalsobeinaccurate,tosaytheleast.Tatuevasserted:Wehaveeveryreason
tosuspectseveraldozenpeopleofparticipationininternationalterroristorganizations.We
havelaunchedcriminalprobesintothosecasesonthebasisofArticle208oftheRussian
CriminalCode[EstablishmentoforParticipationinanIllegalArmedGroup].Onesuch
individualwastriedandsentencedtothreeyearsinprisonlastyearforparticipationin
internationalterroristorganizations(KavkazskayaPolitika,November5).
TherealfiguresmaybesignificantlyhigherbecauseKabardino-Balkariahasstrongtieswith
theCircassiandiasporainTurkeyandauthoritieshavehaddifficultyfollowingwhopassed
throughTurkeywhiletravelingtoSyriaandwhoremainsinTurkeyforotherpurposes.
DespitethelowerlevelofviolenceinKabardino-Balkariatoday,thethreattheinsurgency
posesintherepublicappearstoremainquitesignificant.TheNalchik-basedhumanrights
activistValeryKhatazhukovsaidinaninterviewthispastsummerthateverytwotothree
years,theleadersofthearmedundergroundareeliminatedduetosomeluckycoincidence,
andthesituationcalmsdown.However,thesocial,economicandpoliticalconditionsthat
breeddiscontentdonotdisappear,sotheinsurgencyeventuallyreemerges.Therightsactivist
alsosaidthatthegovernmentcommissionforadaptingrebelstocivilianlifeinKabardino-
Balkariaispracticallynotfunctioning,sincetherepublicsleadershipgiveslittlesupporttoits
work.AccordingtoKhatazhukov,100150residentsoftherepubliclefttogoandfightin
Syria.Kabardino-Balkariasgovernmenthasturnedablindeyetoyoungpeoplewhoseekto
jointheinsurgencyintheMiddleEast,promptlyprovidingthemwithforeignpassports,
accordingtoKhatazhukov(KavkazskayaPolitika,July29).
Kabardino-BalkariasDeputyInteriorMinisterTatuevprovidedaglimpseofhowpervasive
theinsurgencyisintherepublic.Somehavehighereducationdegrees,theyhaveavarietyof
statuses,someareunemployed,hesaid.[Kabardino-Balkarian]graduatesofMoscow
universitiesjointheinsurgencysomeofthemilitantsareformermedicalschoolstudents.
Othersjoinedtheinsurgencyimmediatelyafterschoolorafterrunningtheirbusinesses
(KavkazskayaPolitika,November5).
Thepoliticalsideoftheinsurgencyintherepublicisconsciouslyignoredbythegovernment.
Fordecades,Kabardino-Balkariahasnothadfreeandfairelectionsanditsgovernmenthas
beenplaguedbypersistentcorruption.AlongwithotherNorthCaucasianrepublics,itis
amongthepoorestRussianregions,andsinceitsresidentshavenosayinpoliticalaffairsor
changingtheirfuture,somechooseviolenceasameanstoforcepoliticalchange.Theuseof
illegalpolicingmethodsintherepublicfurtherantagonizesdisenfranchisedindividualsand
providessupporttotheinsurgency(KavkazskayaPolitika,July29).
ThistrendislikelytocontinueandevenintensifybecauseRussiaasawholefacesastagnant
politicalandeconomicenvironmentandworseningeconomicconditions.PresidentVladimir
PutinscrusadeagainstUkraine,theSyrianrebelsandtheWestmaytemporarilyhelpthe
RussiangovernmentrelievethetensionsintheNorthCaucasusbecausetheRussian
populationtendstoforgetaboutitseconomicandpoliticalwoeswhilerallyingaroundthe
flag.However,thatcrusadecannotlastforanextendedperiod,andtherealitiesonthe
groundwillforcecitizenstoreassesstheirloyaltiestothestateonceagain.
--ValeryDzutsati
NormandyGroupMicromanagingFakeElectionPreparationsinDonetsk-Luhansk
GermanysForeignAffairsMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierhostedameetingofhisRussian,
French,andUkrainiancounterparts(Normandygroup),onNovember6,inBerlin,toliftthe
DecemberdeadlineontheimplementationoftheMinskarmisticeinUkraine.Thismove,a
foregoneconclusion,mayturnthearmisticeimplementationintoaprotractedstalemate,with
Russiaholdingtheupperhand(seeEDM,November10).
Withthismove,WesternpowersandRussiaareshiftingtheemphasisfromthemilitarytothe
politicalclausesoftheMinskarmistice.Highlyunusualforanarmistice,andunprecedented
amongthepost-Sovieterasconservedconflicts,theMinskdocumentsarelargelypoliticalin
content,demandingofUkrainetolegalizeRussiasarmedproxiesthroughlocalelectionsand
aconstitutionalstatus.Thisiswheretheemphasishasshiftedinthearmisticeimplementation
process.
ItwastheNormandytopleadersOctober2meetinginParisthatsignaledtheshift.There,
theRussian,German,andFrenchleadersapprovedthePierreMorelPlanonthelegality
andmodalitiesofstagingelectionsincertainareasoftheDonetskandLuhanskprovinces
(Russian-controlledpeoplesrepublics).Oncethoseelectionsareheldandvalidated,the
threeNormandypowerswouldaskUkrainetobringthelawonspecialproceduresfor
self-administrationofcertainareasintheDonetskandLuhanskprovinces(oftenreferenced
asspecialstatus,andmeanwhileenshrinedinUkrainesconstitution)intoeffect.Ukrainian
PresidentPetroPoroshenkohadtermedtheproposedelectionsfakeelections,andthe
MoreldocumentasMr.MorelspersonalopinionbutKyivhadnochoiceotherthanto
enterintonegotiationsonthisbasisaftertheParissummit(seeEDM,October9,13,29).
TheprocesslaunchedbytheOctober2summitinPariscontinuedbehindthecloseddoorsof
theContactGroupinMinskandcameupforreviewattheNovember6ministerialmeetingin
Berlin.There,Steinmeierlistedfiveofthethorniestissuesconcerninglocalelectionsinthose
certainareas(Auswaertiges-amt.de,November6):
1)Voterstatusofinternallydisplacedpersons(IDPs,theirtotalnumberexceedingonemillion)
whofledfromthecertainareasintoUkrainesinterior.KyivinsistsonsecuringtheIDPs
righttovoteandrighttoseekelectiveofficeintheirhomelocalities,whereasDonetsk-
LuhanskauthoritieswouldapparentlydisenfranchisetheIDPs.Curiously,nomentionisyet
madeofthemorethanonemillionIDPswhofledfromthecertainareastoRussia,and
wouldpresumablyvoteagainstanypro-Ukrainecandidates.
2)Eligibilityofpoliticalpartiestoentertheircandidates.Steinmeiersreadoutoftheministerial
meetingdidnotgointospecifics,butsomeoftheseareknown.TheauthoritiesintheDonetsk
andLuhanskpeoplesrepublicsrejecttheparticipationofexponentsoftheformerPartyof
Regionsintheselocalelections.ThisterritoryusedtobethePartyofRegionsmain
stronghold.However,theregimechangeinthespringof2014inDonetskandLuhanskwas
farmoreradicalthanKyivsregimechange.Thepeoplesrepublicsleaderssuspectthat
KyivmightworkwithcertainDonetskoligarchs,themselvesIDPsinKyivatpresent,to
return,participateinthelocalelectionsandrestoresomedegreeofKyivsinfluencethere.The
peoplesrepublicsalsorejecttheparticipationofUkrainianfar-rightpartiesintheselocal
elections.Foritspart,Kyivwantstheguaranteedparticipationofpartiesthathadlocal
branchesinthisterritorypriorto2014.Thiscriterionwouldensuretheparticipationof
Ukrainianparties,includingexponentsoftheformerPartyofRegions,whileimplicitly
excludingfar-rightparties.
3)AccesstoUkrainianmassmediaandtherulesofUkrainianjournalistsaccreditation.The
peoplesrepublicsauthoritieswanttoregulatethesemattersthemselves.Russiantelevision
channelswouldinfluencetheseelectionsmostheavily,butthismattercouldhardlyhavebeen
discussedintheNormandyformatwithRussia.
4)Electionmonitoring.Intriguingly,Steinmeierraisedthequestioninhisreadoutofthe
Normandymeeting:Willtheseelectionsbemonitored?Andbywhom,ifnotbythe
OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope[OSCE]?Apparently,Moscowand
Donetsk-LuhanskwantRussia-friendlyorganizationse.g.,Europeanfringepartiesthat
monitoredthe2014CrimeareferendumandDonetsk-Luhanskelectionstobeinvited,
alongsidetheOSCEsOfficeofDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRights(ODIHR),to
monitorandevaluatetheseelections,adulteratingOSCE/ODIHRcriteria.Accordingto
UkrainianForeignAffairsMinisterPavloKlimkin,TheRussiansideintheNormandyformat
oftensaysthattherearenodefinitecriteriaforevaluatingelections.Duringministerialmeetings
IhaverepeatedlyshownthemOSCEdocumentswheresuchcriteriaarelisted.Russiaisa
signatorytothosedocuments(Segodnya,October23).
5)ApplicabilityofUkraineselectorallegislationandroleofUkrainesCentralElectoral
Commission(CEC).Theearlierpretensethattheselocalelectionswouldbeheldonthebasis
ofUkraineselectorallegislation(indeed,aspartofUkrainescountry-widelocalelections)
hasbeendropped.AccordingtoSteinmeier,whileUkrainesCECcannotbeexcluded,the
legalbasiswouldbeagreeduponbetweentheparties[KyivandDonetsk-Luhansk],taking
intoaccounttheDonbasregionsinterests.AndaccordingtotheQuaidOrsaysreadoutof
MinisterLaurentFabiussparticipationinthisNormandymeeting,theseelectionswouldbe
basedonmodalitiesagreeduponbytheparties(Diplomatie.gouv.fr,November6).
Russia,GermanyandFrancewillundoubtedlytrytofinessethesemodalitiesinthe
NormandyandMinskContactGroupprocesses.TheyseempreparedtostagewhatUkraine
characterizesasfakeelectionsbytechnicalcriteria.Buttheyskirtthefundamentalissues.
ElectionsheldinthepresenceofRussianforces,policedbyDonetskandLuhanskpeoples
republicunlawfularmedformations(peoplesmilitia),withoutlegitimatecourtstohear
complaints,andoutsidetheframeworkofUkrainesconstitutionalguarantees,wouldbe
illegitimateelectionsabinitio.
--VladimirSocor
BelarusandPublishedOpinion-Making
InearlyNovember,journalistsandanalystsconvenedinTallinn,Estonia,forthefifthannual
meetingoftheRubiconconferencefullydevotedtoissuespertainingtoBelarus.Thisyear,
themajortopicwasBelarusasafactorofregionalsecurityandstability.Theparticipants
wereunabletocometoaconsensusonwhetherBelarusianPresidentAlyaksandr
LukashenkaisaKremlinvassalorwhetherthetailmayactuallybewaggingthedog.Roman
Yakovlevsky,whoisactiveon Charter97,themostrigidonlineoppositionoutlet,and
ArkadyMoshes,oftheFinnishInstituteforInternationalAffairs,leanedtowardtheformer
qualification.Whereas,ValerKarbalevichandYuryDrakakhrustoftheBelarusianserviceof
RadioLibertyinsistedonthelatter.Karbalevichevenopinedthatinforeignaffairs,Belarusis
muchmoreindependentfromRussiathanEstoniaisfromtheEuropeanUnionortheNorth
AtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO).Thereare[typically]nowarsbetweenavassaland
thesuzerain,declaredKarbalevich,whereasallsortsofwarsfromthoseonnaturalgasto
informationwarsbrokeoutrepeatedlybetweenMinskandMoscowandevennow,the
partiesareinaclinchabouttheissueoftheRussianairbase,whichRussiawantstoopenon
Belarusianterritory.SincetheannexationofUkrainesCrimeanpeninsulawasgreatlyaidedby
theRussiannavalbaseinSevastopol,itisperfectlyunderstandablewhyLukashenkaisfirmly
againsttheRussianairbaseinitiative(Naviny.by,November4).
Thesituation,however,islessstraightforwardthanitseemsapointthatunbending
democracypromotersintheWesthavehadahardtimegrasping.Thus,accordingto
Drakakhrust,ifBelarussregimesomehowgiveswaytoapro-Europeangovernment,the
entirecountrycouldpossiblybecomeaDonbasofsorts,asevennowabout20percentof
Belarusiansareaggressivelypro-Russian.AccordingtotheRussianliberalanalystVladislav
Inozemtsev,thecurrentpoliticalregimesinRussiaandBelaruswilllingeruntilthephysical
deathoftheirleaders.Yet,inbothcases,thiswillbefollowedbychaosbecausethe
personalisticregimesdonotlendthemselvestopeacefulsuccessions.Inozemtsevalso
claimedthatBelarushasnoreasontofearfallingoutofRussianPresidentVladimirPutins
favorbecausetheEurasianintegrationprojectistooimportantforhimandhowever
paradoxicalitmayseem,BelaruscancountonobtaininganythingitwantsfromRussia
(Naviny.by,November4).
SeveralparticipantsoftheconferencearguedthatLukashenka,facedwitheconomic
problems,willimitatereformsbutwillhardlymovebeyondthat.Indeed,severaldaysafterthe
conference,LukashenkasaideKirillRudyideclaredthereisnograssrootsdemandfor
economicreforminBelarus.Tocounterthat,AlexanderKlaskovsky,aveteranopposition
journalist,quotedearly20thcenturyAmericanautomobilemanufacturerHenryFord:IfIhad
askedpeoplewhattheywanted,theywouldhavesaidfasterhorses.Inanycase,according
toSergeiNikolyuk,aBelarusianpoliticalphilosopher,thetypeofpopularlegitimationofthe
existingpoliticalregimeinBelarushasrecentlychanged.Whereasforalongtime,itwas
loyaltyinexchangeforincome,nowitisloyaltyinexchangeforsurvival.TheUkrainian
crisisshouldbecreditedwiththissortofshift.AndreiVardomatski,asociologist,wordedthis
slightlydifferentlywhenheremarkedthatLukashenkaspopularityrating,formerlybasedon
theeconomy,isnowfundamentallyasecurityrating.AsNikolyukargued,inBelarus,the
threatofneo-totalitarianismistheresponseofaninadequatelymodernizedsocietytomodern
challenges.BothLukashenkaandabout60percentofallBelarusiansareleeryof
competition,andtheentirecultureisnotinnovation-prone(Naviny.by,November5).
Thebeleagueredandself-annihilatingBelarusianoppositionwasalsonotsparedcriticismat
theconference.AlexanderYaroshuk,atradeunionleader,evenproposedthatitistimeforall
theoppositionpartiestodisbandandtocreateamassmovementmodeledafterthePolish
Solidarityofthe1980s(Euroradio.fm,November3).Indeed,severaldaysafterthe
conference,fiveBelarusianoppositionleaderssignedapetitionaskingtheEUtoorganizean
intra-Belarusiandialogueaboutdemocratization(Tut.by,November3).Butthisgesturecame
acrosstomanypoliticallymindedBelarusiansasasymptomofthedomesticoppositions
ultimatehelplessness.Afterall,theauthoritarianregimewillonlytalktoastrongadversary,
whichtheBelarusianoppositionisnot(Naviny.by,November5).Predictably,Tatyana
Korotkevich,theonlymemberoftheoppositionwhohadcollectedtheminimum100,000
signaturesneededtorunintheOctober2015presidentialelections,didnotsignthepetition.
PavlyukBykovsky(nowafreelancer,butformerlylongassociatedwiththenewspaper
BelarusyiRynok)opined,however,thatKorotkevichprovedthetheorylongadvocatedby
Nikolyuk,accordingtowhichitdoesnotmatterwhotheoppositionspresidentialcandidate
wouldbeheorshecouldcountonaboutone-fifthoftheelectoratenomatterwhat,dueto
theossifiednatureofBelarusiansocietyanddomesticpolitics.Evenmyapoliticalwifewould
beabletowinthevoiceofthispartoftheelectorate,Nikolyukrepeatedlyclaimed.Theone-
fightfigure,infact,roughlycorrespondedwiththeportionofvoterspredictedtoback
Korotkevich,accordingtosurveysconductedpriortothepresidentialelections(Naviny.by,
November8seeEDM,October7,20).
ConsideringtheoppositionsmorassaswellastheLukashenkagovernmentsseemingly
unshakablepowerpositionanditspoliciesofcautiouslyreachingouttotheWest,itislittle
wonderthatthespokesmenandenvoysoftheWesternworldincreasinglyseeofficialMinsk
astheonlyreasonablenegotiationpartner.Recently,tworepresentativesoftheUSState
DepartmentDeputyAssistantSecretariesBridgetBrinkandRobertBerschinskimade
someencouragingandfriendlystatementsuponvisitingtheBelarusiancapital.Evenregarding
thepotentialRussianairbase,theydeclaredthatWashingtonhasalwaysbeeninfavorofeach
countrychoosingmilitaryalliesonitsown(Tut.by,November5).Inturn,theWorldBank
commendedtheNationalBankofBelarusforitscommitmenttoreformandevenwarned,
quiterealistically,thatreforminganeconomythatisunstablecouldbringaboutunforeseen
consequences(Tut.by,November2).
AsWinstonChurchilloncequipped,Thereisnosuchthingaspublicopinion.Thereisonly
publishedopinion.ItseemsthepublishedopinionaboutBelarusischanginganditnotable
thatBelarusitselfhashadlittletodowiththischange.Buttheexternalfactorsthataretruly
bringingitaboutmakeoneeternallyskepticalabouttheprocessofpublishedopinion-making
assuch.
--GrigoryIoffe
Forward ReadLater
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Seeyesterdaysnotes
VladimirFrolovwritesthatnoonecanbecompletelysureatthispoint,butitdoesappearthataterroristattackdestroyedthe
Russianairliner,thatthelikelysuspectsareaSinaiIslamistorganizationaffiliatedwithISIS,andthatitwasdoneasaactofrevenge
againstRussiafortheSyriaairstrikeoperation.Noselfrespectingstatecanavoidreactingtosuchanattack.Andanyretaliatory
strikeattheterroristsshouldbedoneincooperationwithEgyptianforces.TheterroristattackwillalsoforceareviewofRussian
strategyinSyria,are-evaluationoftherealismoftheoperation,aswellasitstacticsandrisksforRussiaandRussiancitizens.
Withoutsuchare-evaluation,aretaliatorystrikeattheterroristswouldonlyintensifycombatoperationsandthesizeoftheRussian
contingentinSyria,whichwouldbeamistake.
Theaftermathoftheterroristattackraisessomequestions.HowwasthedecisionabouttheSyriangambitmade?Howwerethe
risksandreliabilityofintelligenceevaluated?WhytakepartinareligiousbattleonthesideoftheShiitesagainsttheSunnis?Is
thereapossibilityofaglobaljihadagainstRussians?SpecialistsrealizedthatRussiantouristsinEgyptandevenTurkeywere
defenselesstargetsforISISterrorists.Atleastraisetheterroristthreatwarningandloudlywarnaboutthedangersofvacationingin
theregion.
TheRussianbombingcampaignhasnotledtoasubstantialimprovementofthesituationintheSyrianconflict.Theterritory
controlledbytheSyriangovernmenthasexpandedabout50squarekilometersintheregionsouthofAleppo,wherethefighting
wasdonemostlybyIranianallies,allieswhointhecourseoftwoweeksoffightinglostmorethantengeneralsandstaffofficers.
IntheprovinceswheremostRussianairstrikesweremade,theoppositionhasretakenterritoryfromtheSyrianarmy.Ontopof
that,DamascushaslostmoreterritoryinKhamaprovince.InAleppoandeastofKhomas,ISISispreparingacounteroffensive
thatthreatensencirclementofIranianandSyriantroops.Thusfar,noteventheminimumprogramofhaltingtheSyrianarmys
retreatandlossofterritoryhasbeenachieved.Theoppositionhasnotbeenneutralized,whichwouldfreeupforcestocombat
ISIS.ItwasonlyrecentlythatRussiaseriouslydirectedairstrikesagainstISISandtheeffectivenessofthosestrikesis
questionable.Russianairstrikescouldcontinueforanothertwo-threemonthsinhopesthatSyrianandIranianforceswillmount
successfulattacks,butsofaritsnotobvioustherewillbeanysuchsuccesses.
Inthemeantime,wecannotexpecttheoppositiontoweakentheUSanditsalliesaresupplyingtheoppositionforceswithup-to-
dateweapons,includingAmericananti-tankweapons.TheaimistoincreasepressureonAssadtoforcehimtonegotiateapower
transition.ThiswasdonepreciselyinconnectionwiththeRussianoperationtheinsurgentscouldnotbeallowedtobedefeated.
Russiaisalreadybeingdrawnintoaprotractedwar,almostinanAfghanscenario.ThereareparallelstotheAfghanintervention
Russiaisfightingonthesideofforeigninterventionists,Iranians,mercenariesdrawnfromamongAfghanrefugeesinIran,Shitte
militiafromIraq,and,fromLebanon,Hezbollah.
Intheabsenceofmilitarysuccess,Moscowistryingtoacceleratediplomaticeffortsaimedatresolvingtheconflict,buttherehas
notbeenanybigmovementinthatdirection.AnexpandedcontactgroupwiththeparticipationofIranhasbeencreated,butthe
30OctoberViennacommuniquwasaweakerstatementthanthe2012Genevacommuniqu,whichmentionedatransitional
bodyanddescribedaroadmaptoapowertransitionRussiaandIraninsistthatAssadshouldnotonlyremaininpowerduring
atransitionalperiod,butbeabletoparticipateinnewelections.TheUS,theEUandpartoftheAraballiesthinkAssadcanstayin
powerduringatransition,butcannottakepartinnewelectionsItsobviousthatAssadsfutureisakeyquestionaslongasno
solutionisfoundregardingguaranteestoAssadthatareacceptabletotheopposition,theconflictwillnotberesolvedandthewar
willgoon
Moscowhaspreparedalistof38oppositionfigureswhowouldmakeupanegotiationpanelintalkswiththeregime,butonlya
fewofthemhaveanyrealinfluenceoverthearmedoppositionforces.Moscowwantspeopleonthatlisttomeetwith
representativesoftheAssadregimethisweek(somethingtheUSviewsaspremature).Moscowalsotriedtoorganizeameeting
inAbuDhabibetweenrepresentativesoftheFreeSyrianArmyandRussiandiplomatsandmilitaryfigures(alargenumberof
groupsintheFreeSyrianArmyrefusedtoparticipateuntilRussianairstrikeswerehalted)Tobeginarealpoliticalprocessin
Syria,itwillbenecessarytofirstarrangeaceasefirebetweentheinsurgentsandAssadsarmyRussiashouldhaltairstrikes
againsttheSyrianopposition,turnitsattentiontoISIS,andhaltthefalteringoffensivebytheSyrianarmy,whichwouldwithdrawto
defensiblepositions.MoscowshoulddistanceitselffromitsIranianalliesandwithdrawfromtheShiitecoalition,whichismaking
Russiaatargetforjihadists.Russiashouldremainneutral.Moscowshouldannouncethatitsaimistohaltthefighting,defendthe
Syrianpopulation,andbeginarealdialogue.ThischangeofstrategywouldallowforclosecooperationwiththeUSagainsta
commonenemy.ThenwecansendaMedvedevdelegationtoWashington.
Moscowisreluctanttocallthedisasterterrorismbecausethatwouldraisesomeuncomfortablequestionsaboutthedecisionto
launchairstrikesinSyriaquestionslikeDidanyonethinkofthethousandsofRussiantouristsvacationingintheMiddleEast?
Itsobviousthatnoonedid.Sowhatfollowsfromthis?ShouldPutinappeartotheRussianpublicandtellthepeoplethatinview
ofthatwhathashappened,andinordertonotrepeatthatdisaster,RussiawillcurtailitsSyrianoperation?Orshouldhesaythat
wewillnotwithdrawfromSyria,buttheheadsofthespecialservices,thechiefoftheGeneralStaffandMedvedevwillresign
sincetheyhavenothandledtheirofficialobligations?OrshouldPutinannouncethathemadethedecisionSyriaanditishewho
willresign?ButifcoursethatsimpossiblenoterroristattackwillforcePutintowithdrawfromSyriaorleavetheKremlin.No
terroristattackwillforceresignationsintheRussiangovernment.Therealsurprisewouldhavebeenifsomeonehadthoughtabout
theRussiantouristsIfPutincouldbethreatenedwithimpeachment,orloseanelection,hewouldconducthimselfdifferently.But
whyshouldhechangehisbehavior?Therearenosuchthreatstohim.WhathappenedinEgyptisnothinguniqueintherelationship
betweenvlastandtheRussianpeopleVlastcandowhatitlikes,therearenothreatstoit,itcanmanipulatepublicopinionone
DmitriyKiselevprogramwouldbeenoughtoexplaintheneedforagroundoperationinSyria(Comment:Kiselevcomesupin
theitembelow)
Kashinbacksuptonotethatanti-terrorismiswhatbroughtPutintopower,andtheSecondChechenWarwasbilledasanAnti-
terroristoperation.DespiteNordOstandBeslan,vlastspropagandahadthepresentpowers-that-beastheonlyforcecapable
ofcombatingterrorisminRussia.Againstthisbackground,societywasreadytocedeallpowertovlastandthatswhenthe
historyofPutinsRussiabegan.Itsinterestingthatafterthe2010Moscowmetrobombingandother(lessfrequent)terrorist
incidents,theKremlindidnotlifttheanti-terroristbanneroncemore,butsawtoitthatthestorieswerepartofthestreamof
ordinarynewsReturningtoanti-terroristrhetoricwouldbeanadmission(byPutinnotsomuchtothecitizenryastohimself)
thatforthelastdecade,Russiahasbeengoingincirclesandhasnotmovedfromthespotthatwasthetrumpcardfortheearly
Putin.Andthatislikelywhyvlasthasbeensoreluctanttoadmitthataterroristattackhastakenplace
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-and-iran-sign-long-awaited-s-300-contract/545647.html
RussiaandIranhavepennedalong-awaitedcontractforthedeliveryofMoscow'sadvancedS-300air-defensemissilesystems,aseniorRussian
defenseindustryofficialtoldreportersattheDubaiAirshowonMonday,theRIANovostinewsagencyreported.
ThetwosideshavebeenhashingoutthedetailsofadeliveryoftheS-300regardedasoneofthemostcapableanti-aircraftmissilesystemsin
theworldsincePresidentVladimirPutinliftedaRussiangovernmentbanontheirexporttoIraninApril.
SpeakingoftheS-300airdefensesystem,thecontracthasalreadybeensigned,saidSergeiChemezov,theheadofRussia'slargestdefenseand
technologyholding,Rostec,RIANovostireported.
Chemezov,aclosePutinally,saidthatthetwosideshadcometotermsonakeyquestiondoggingnegotiationsfortheS-300systemssinceApril
a$4billionIranianlawsuitfiledagainstRussia'sstatearmsexportagencyRosoboronexportin2011.
Tehranfiledthesuitafterthen-PresidentDmitryMedvedevissuedapresidentialorderin2010banningdeliveryofS-300stoIranunderan$800
millioncontractsignedin2007afterTehrancameunderheavyinternationalsanctionsforitsnuclearweaponsdevelopmentprogram.
IrandemandedthatRussiadeliverS-300systemsunderanewcontractbeforeremovingitssuit,butRussiahadinsistedthelawsuitmustbe
droppedbeforeanewcontractwouldbesignedaccordingtoChemezov,RussiahascededtoIran'sdemands.
Underthenewcontract,Iranwilldropitslawsuitafterthefirststageofthecontractiscompleted,Chemezovwasquotedassaying,without
specifyingwhatthefirststageofthecontractentails.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-09/the-price-of-russia-s-travel-ban\
Russia'sdecisiontostopflightstoEgyptispotentiallydevastatingforthatcountry'salreadybatteredtouristindustry,butit'salsoagrimsignfor
Russia.EgyptwasthemostpopularholidaydestinationforRussians,andtheywillfindithardtofindareplacement:theircountry'sinvolvementin
theSyrianwarmeansotherpartsoftheMiddleEastmaynotbesafe,either.
PresidentVladimirPutin'srhetoricandeconomicpolicymaybeessentiallyisolationist,buthe'sneverpurposefullydoneanythingtolimitoutbound
tourism.TheabilityofmanyRussianstotraveloverseasonceortwiceayearwasoneofPutin'smajorachievements:Althoughitwashis
predecessor,BorisYeltsin,whoopenedtheborders,itwasunderPutinthatmostpeoplecouldfinallyaffordtogo.In2000,Russiansmade4.2
millionoverseastripsastourists.In2013,thatnumberincreasedto18.3million.Itgreweveryyearsince2009,whentheglobalfinancialcrisis
causedahiccup.
Putin'sforeignpolicyandthefallingpriceofoilhaveconspiredtoreversethegrowth.In2014,thenumberoftouristtripsdropped4percent,mainly
becauseoftheUkrainecrisisandtensionswithEurope.AsRussia'srecessionworsenedthisyear,thedeclinecontinued.Russians,however,still
wenttoEgypt:Itwasfriendly,visa-freeandcheap--aweeklongholidayforaslittleas$500includingairfare--anditofferedbeachholidaysduring
thewinter.EgyptcompeteswithTurkeyforthetopspotonthelistofpopulardestinationsandoutranksitwhentheMediterraneangetstoocold.
TheU.K.wasthefirstcountrytostopflightstoSharmel-SheikhafterinformationemergedsuggestingtheRussianairlinerthatcrashedoverthe
SinaionAug.31hadbeenbroughtdownbyabomb.YetBritishplanescontinuedflyingtoEgypt'sotherbigresort,Hurgada,andinanycase,
EgypthadbeenlosingitsappealforU.K.holidaymakerssincetheArabSpring,in2011.Only296,000visitedlastyear,amere0.4percentofthe
globalnumberandmorethan50percentfewerthanin2010.
Russians,however,madealmost3milliontripstoEgyptin2014,representing7percentoftotalvisitors.Now,thegovernmenthasstoppedall
flightsbothtoSharmandHurgada,andPrimeMinisterDmitriMedvedevsaystheywon'tresumeanytimesoon."Itwilltaketimetoensuresecurity
foravacationinEgypt,"hetolddeputiesonMonday."Let'snotindulgeinillusions,thiswon'tbeashortperiod."
TheflightbansaredevastatingtoEgypt,whichcouldlose70percentofitsforeignvisitorsandalargechunkofthe14percentofforeigncurrency
revenuethattourismprovides.Egypt'sgovernmentwilltrytomakeairportsresembleIsrael'snotoriouslystrictBenGurionInternational.Butthat
wouldn'tbeenoughforRussia.Thecountryasawholewouldneedtobecomemoresecure.
WhileRussiaisfightingradicalIslamistsinSyria,it'simpossibletoruleoutnewactsofterror.Egypthasexperiencedattacksagainsttourists:
hundredsdiedin1997,2004and2005.RussiansarenowprimetargetsbecauseoftheinterventioninSyriatopropupPresidentBasharal-Assad.
ThismeansmostRussianshavefewsafedestinationsopentothemthisseason.OutsidetheMiddleEast,beachholidaysareonlypossiblein
SoutheastAsiaortheCaribbeanatthistimeofyear,andthosearetooexpensivefordevaluation-hitRussians.
Russia'stourismindustryisinformajorlosses:AccordingtotheRussianAssociationofTravelAgencies,about140,000packagetourstoEgypt
havealreadybeensoldforthewinterseason.Medvedevhasorderedthegovernmenttolookintofinancialaidforthetouroperators.
ThereisabiggerrisktotheKremlinitself.WillRussiansbeangryatPutinforgettinginvolvedinaforeignwarthathasclaimedciviliansandclosed
apopularpartoftheworld?Orwilltheyrallybehindthegovernment,demandingretributionagainsttheterrorists?Thelatterismorelikely:The
Kremlinpropagandamachineisalreadyatwork.DmitryKiselyov,hostofVestiNedeli,themostpopularweeklynewsanalysisshowonstate
television,saidSundaythattheplanecouldhavebeenblownupbecauseRussiaalreadywasdoingmoredamagetoIslamicStatethantheWestern
coalitionhasinthepasttwoyears.HeevensuggestedtheU.S.mayhavemadeadealwiththeIslamiststoattackRussianaircraftandnotWestern
ones.
Increasingisolationalwaysmeansangerandescalation.TheKremlinislikelytostepupitsSyriacampaign,anditprobablywillhavemorepublic
support.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/reuters-reveals-identity-of-putins-billionaire-daughter/547946.html
Polystaro/YouTubeAscreenshotfromavideoshowingKaterinaTikhonovaperformingatthedanceshow.
TheReutersnewsagencyonTuesdaysaidithadidentifiedoneofthedaughtersofRussianPresidentVladimirPutinandclaimedthatsheandher
husbandcontrolledassetsworthabout$2billion,includingaseasidevillainBiarritz,France,estimatedtobeworthabout$3.7million.
Aseniorexecutiveatastate-ownedRussianbanktoldReutersthatPutin'syoungerdaughter,whoseidentityhasbeenshieldedfromthepress,
usedthesurnameTikhonova.ThereportsaidKaterina,29,wasthespouseofKirillShamalov,sonofNikolaiShamalov,abankerandlongtime
friendofthepresident.
AccordingtoReuters,thefoundationofthecouple'swealthisastakeinamajorgasandpetrochemicalcompanythatKirillacquiredfromGennady
Timchenko,anotherlongstandingfriendofPutin.
Thepair'svillainBiarritzwasalsoboughtfromTimchenko,Reuterssaid.
TherevelationsundermineclaimsbyPutin'ssupportersthatwhilesomeofhisacquaintancesmayhaveamassedfortunesduringhis15yearsin
power,thepresidenthasnotabusedhispositiontoenrichhimselfandhisfamily.
AccordingtoReuters,KaterinaTikhonovaisworkinginacademiaandrunningpubliclyfundedprojectsatMoscowStateUniversity.Hersister
Mariaisagraduateoftheuniversity.
BothKaterinaandKirillShamalovdeclinedtocommenttoReuters.
Comment:ThatKaterinawasusingthenameTikhonovahadbeenrevealedinmassmediaearlierthisyearsee
the30Januarynotes,forinstance.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-justice-ministry-accuses-ngo-of-plotting-government-overthrow/547944.html
Russia'sJusticeMinistryhasaccusedtheMemorialhumanrightsorganizationofseekingtooverthrowtheRussiangovernment,Russianmedia
reportedTuesday.
MemorialreceivedaletterfromtheJusticeMinistryonNov.9accusingthemofunderminingtheconstitutionalorderoftheRussianFederation,
callingfortheoverthrowofthecurrentgovernmentandchangingthecountry'spoliticalregime,"chairmanoftheNGO'sboardAlexander
CherkasovwroteontheMemorialwebsiteonTuesday.
TheJusticeMinistry's15-pageletterandanyfurtheractionthatmaybetakenagainstthemwillbechallengedincourt,Memorialboardmember
OlegOrlovsaid,InterfaxreportedTuesday.
"Notasingleexamplewasgivenofacalltooverthrowthegovernment,butthereareexamplesofourcriticismoftheauthoritiesandour
disagreementwiththem,ourutterances.Apparently,nowcriticismoftheauthoritiesisequivalenttocallingfortheoverthrowofthegovernment,"
hesaid.
Orlovdoesnotknowwhattheconsequencesofthelettermaybe,buthedoesnotruleoutthepossibilitythatthegovernmentwillseektoclose
Memorial,Interfaxreported.
OnJuly21,2014,theMemorialhumanrightscenterwasincludedontheregisteroforganizationsthatperformthefunctionsofaforeignagent.
A2012lawrequiresNGOstolabelthemselvesforeignagentsiftheyreceivefundingfromabroadandengageinvaguelydefinedpolitical
activities.ThetermhasbeenslammedbycriticsassuggestiveofespionageandNGOsacrossthecountryhavefoughttoridthemselvesofthe
label.
http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/103596
NemtsovfamilylawyersVadimProkhorovandOlgaMikhailovahavesentalettertotheInvestigativeCommittee(SK)callingfor
MVDInternalTroopsCommanderViktorZolotovtobequestionedintheNemtsovmurderinvestigation.Theletternotesthat
someofthemurdersuspectsweremembersoftheSeverMVDInternalTroopsbattalionandthatKadyrovisafriendofZolotovs
thatshouldbeenoughfortheSKtoquestionZolotov.ThelawyersnotethatwheninvestigatorswereinChechnyalookingfor
RuslanGeremeyevandRuslanMukhudinovforquestioning,ZolotovturnedupinGroznyatameetingwithKadyrovandAdam
Delimkhanov(Seethe31Marchnotes).TheythinkZolotovshouldbequestionedaboutthatmeeting,aboutthesuspectswho
weremembersoftheSeverbattalionandabouttheplacementofFSOsurveillancecamerasinthevicinityofthesceneofthe
murder.
Comment:ImentionedZolotovaspossiblybeinginvolvedintheNemtsovmurderinthe6Novembernotes.Formore
onZolotov,seethenotesfrom7,8,and9Apriland26August.
http://www.rosbalt.ru/moscow/2015/11/09/1459193.html
AccordingtoRosbaltssources,bothGeremeyevandhisdriver/bodyguardMukhudinovhavebeenreclassifiedfromwitnessesto
suspectsinthecase.InvestigatorswereagaininChechnyaon9Novembertoquestionsfriendsandrelationsofbothmenabout
thewhereaboutsofthesuspectsandaboutwhetheranyofthosefriendsandrelationshadheardsomethingabouttheassassination
ofNemtsovbeingplanned.RosbaltsaysthattheinvestigatorsclaimthatitwasMukhudinovwhorecruitedthemenwhocarried
outthemurderandthathe,likethekillers,waspaid.Itfollowsthatifheisidentifiedbyinvestigatorsastheorganizerofthe
murder,thenGeremeyevwillbetappedasthezakazchik.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/89f59acc-8679-11e5-8a12-b0ce506400af.html#axzz3r8Azmioz
Itwasanacronymthatspawnedahostofsummits,adevelopmentbankanda$100bnbailoutfund.ButGoldmanSachs,oncethe
mostenergeticsponsoroftheBricinvestmenttheme,hasquietlysteppedawayfromit,mergingitsdedicatedin-housefundintoan
all-purposeemergingmarketsvehicle.
TheclosureoftheBricfundannouncedinafilingtotheSecuritiesandExchangeCommissioninSeptemberandspottedby
BloombergonSundaycameafterpoorperformanceandconsistentlaggingofbenchmarks.Assetsundermanagementhaddwindled
toabout$100m,fromapeakofmorethan$800mattheendof2010.
Byshuttingthefund,theWallStreetbankhassignalledanendofanerainwhichthefourdevelopingeconomiesBrazil,Russia,
IndiaandChinaappearedtobeshapinganewworldorder.Theacronymhadbeencoinedin2001byLordONeill,theUKTreasury
ministerandformerchiefeconomistatGoldman,whonotedthatrealGDPgrowthamongthequartethadsurpassedthatoftheG7
groupofmatureeconomies.GoldmansBricfundwasbornfiveyearslater,investingatleast80percentofitsnetassetsinBric
equities.
However,stockmarketshaveremainedveryvolatileandthemuch-vauntedtransferofeconomicandpoliticalpowerisyettocometo
pass.Brazilseconomyissettoshrink3percentthisyear,accordingtothelatestInternationalMonetaryFundforecasts,whileRussia
grapplingwithacollapseinresourcespricesandtheeffectsofinternationalsanctionsshouldcontractby3.8percent.
Meanwhile,althoughChinaisstillreportingstrongfigures,manydoubtthedata,wonderinghowaneconomythathasexperiencednear-
20percentfallsinimportvolumesforthepastcoupleofmonthscanreallybegrowingatanannualrateofabout7percent.India
remainsarelativesafehaven,oncoursetomatchlastyears7.3percentgrowth.
Overthelastdecadeemerging-marketinvestinghasevolvedfrombeingtacticalandopportunistictobeingastrategicpartofmost
assetallocations,saidAndrewWilliams,aspokespersonforGoldman.
Wecontinuetorecommendthatourclientshaveexposuretoemergingmarketsacrossassetclassesaspartoftheirstrategicasset
allocation.
TheBricgroupofcountrieswhichbecamefivein2010withtheadditionofSouthAfricaremainsdeterminedtoimposeitselfasa
distinctgeopoliticalforce.In2012,atthefourthBricssummitinIndia,thegroupunveiledplanstosetupadevelopmentbanktorivalthe
AmericanandEuropean-denominatedWorldBankandIMF,andlastyear,inBrazil,advancedtheideaofareservefundtoease
balance-of-paymentspressures.
Butinapaperpublishedlastmonth,entitledDotheBricsstillmatter?,academicsfromtheCenterforStrategic&InternationalStudies
arguedthatmembersconflictinginterestsandindisputablepolitical,socialandculturaldifferenceswouldlikelykeeptheblocfrom
translatingitseconomicheftintocollectivepoliticalpowerontheglobalstage.
Thegroupingremainsprimarilyrhetorical,notconcrete,wroteCarlMeacham,directoroftheAmericasprogrammeattheWashington,
DC-basedresearchinstitution.Andthelackoftangibleachievementsbodesillforthegroupslong-termsurvival.
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 11/10/201502:31:05PM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Re:IsJebBushstillrunningforpresident?Apparently,alotofpeopledon'tknow.-Vox
HaveyouheardfromLilia?
SentfrommyiPad
OnNov10,2015,at5:17PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
Prettytelling.AndiftheNYTstorytodayaboutBushpreparingtolaunchstrongattacksagainstRubioaretrue,I
hopehedropsoutbeforeresortingtosuchlows.
From:RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Date:Tuesday,November10,20154:12PM
To:DavidKramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:IsJebBushstillrunningforpresident?Apparently,alotofpeopledon'tknow.Vox
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2015/11/10/9706288/jeb-bush-republican-debate-collapse
IsJebBushstillrunningforpresident?
Apparently,alotofpeopledon'tknow.
JebBush'spresidentialrunisgoingsobadlythatpeopledon'tevenknowifhe'srunning.
Atleastthat'swhattheGoogledatasays:WiththefourthRepublicandebatetonight,thetopGoogled
questionaboutBushiswhetherhe'sstillrunningforpresident.
SeethequestionsthatspikedonGoogleabout@JebBushaheadoftonight'sdebate.For
more:http://www.google.com/trends/story/US_cu_J9Xp2FABAACejM_en
GoogleTrends(@GoogleTrends)2:09PM-10Nov2015
OtherRepublicancampaignsfaceasimilarquestion,accordingtoGoogledata.Butitseemsreserved
toBenCarson,whoispollingwellbutelitesthinkhasnochanceofwinning,andotherlow-polling
candidateslikeMikeHuckabeeandBobbyJindal.NotexactlythecandidatesBushhopedtocompete
with.
Bush'scampaignhas,toputitmildly,notliveduptothehype.Initially,Bushsecuredalotof
establishmentsupportforhisrun.Butthingsquicklysouredoncethecampaignskickedintogear:
DonaldTrumpsoaredinthepolls,BushfailedtorespondtoTrump'srisewithanyshowofconfidence,
theRepublicanestablishmentbeganmovingontoMarcoRubio,andnowanewpollfromYouGov
hasfoundBushatameasly3percentsupportwithTrumpandCarsonwayaheadofhim.
Inthefaceofthiscollapse,it'sreallynosurprisethatpeopledon'tknowwhetherBushisstillrunning.At
theveryleast,it'slookingmoreandmorelikelyhe'llsoondropout.
Watch:ThethirdRepublicandebate,explained
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 11/10/201502:17:17PM
Subject: Re:IsJebBushstillrunningforpresident?Apparently,alotofpeopledon'tknow.-Vox
Prettytelling.AndiftheNYTstorytodayaboutBushpreparingtolaunchstrongattacksagainstRubioaretrue,Ihopehedrops
outbeforeresortingtosuchlows.
Date:Tuesday,November10,20154:12PM
Subject:IsJebBushstillrunningforpresident?Apparently,alotofpeopledon'tknow.Vox
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2015/11/10/9706288/jeb-bush-republican-debate-collapse
IsJebBushstillrunningforpresident?Apparently,
alotofpeopledon'tknow.
JebBush'spresidentialrunisgoingsobadlythatpeopledon'tevenknowifhe'srunning.
Atleastthat'swhattheGoogledatasays:WiththefourthRepublicandebatetonight,thetopGoogledquestion
aboutBushiswhetherhe'sstillrunningforpresident.
SeethequestionsthatspikedonGoogleabout@JebBushaheadoftonight'sdebate.Formore:
http://www.google.com/trends/story/US_cu_J9Xp2FABAACejM_en
GoogleTrends(@GoogleTrends)2:09PM-10Nov2015
OtherRepublicancampaignsfaceasimilarquestion,accordingtoGoogledata.ButitseemsreservedtoBen
Carson,whoispollingwellbutelitesthinkhasnochanceofwinning,andotherlow-pollingcandidateslikeMike
HuckabeeandBobbyJindal.NotexactlythecandidatesBushhopedtocompetewith.
Bush'scampaignhas,toputitmildly,notliveduptothehype.Initially,Bushsecuredalotofestablishmentsupportfor
hisrun.Butthingsquicklysouredoncethecampaignskickedintogear:DonaldTrumpsoaredinthepolls,Bush
failedtorespondtoTrump'srisewithanyshowofconfidence,theRepublicanestablishmentbeganmovingonto
MarcoRubio,andnowanewpollfromYouGovhasfoundBushatameasly3percentsupportwithTrumpand
Carsonwayaheadofhim.
Inthefaceofthiscollapse,it'sreallynosurprisethatpeopledon'tknowwhetherBushisstillrunning.Atthevery
least,it'slookingmoreandmorelikelyhe'llsoondropout.
Watch:ThethirdRepublicandebate,explained
Senttime: 11/08/201507:01:18AM
To: BobOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: FW:FTInterviewwithBillBurns
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3d4619f6-82f8-11e5-8095-ed1a37d1e096.html
LUNCHWITHTHEFT November6,20153:58pm
LunchwiththeFT:BillBurns
GideonRachman
Share Authoralerts Print Clip Fromthememo

GiftArticle Comments
thatpredicted
chaosinIraqtosecretmeetingsaboutanucleardealwithIran,thediplomattalks
abouttheadrenalinerushofalifeininternationaldiplomacy
WhenPresidentObamawantedsomebodytoopensecretnegotiations
withIranin2013,heturnedtoBillBurns,widelyregardedasoneof
thefinestandmostdiscreetUSdiplomatsofhisgeneration.ButasI
waitforthe59-year-oldtoarriveattheCoventGardenbranchof
Hawksmoor,anupmarketchainrestaurantinLondonspecialisingin
steaks,itstrikesmethat,inanotherlife,Burnsmighthimselfhave
writtenanentertainingLunchwiththeFT.
AfterthousandsofAmericandiplomaticcableswereleakedtothe
internationalpressviaWikiLeaksin2010,Burnsfoundhimselfan
unexpectedbeneficiary.ACaucasusWedding,atelegramhesentto
theUSstatedepartmentin2006whilehewasambassadortoRussia,
recountingaraucousthree-dayDagestaniweddingattendedby
ChechnyaspresidentRamzanKadyrov,wasdescribedasaminor
classicofcomicwriting,itstoneverymuchnotwhatonemightexpect
ofadiplomaticcable.
Cooksseemedtokeepwholesheepandwholecowsboilingina
cauldronsomewhere,dayandnight,dumpingdisjointedfragmentsof
thecarcassonthetables,wheneversomeoneenteredtheroom,
JamesFerguson
Burnsnoted.Thealcoholconsumptionbefore,duringandafterthis
Muslimweddingwasstupendous...Therewasalsoentertainment,
althoughGadzismainact,aSyrian-bornsingernamedAvraamRusso,couldnotmakeitbecausehewasshota
fewdaysbeforethewedding.
Burnssdaysofwritingdiplomaticcablesareoverfornow.HeretiredfromtheUSgovernmentlastyearaftera
33-yearcareerthatculminatedinspellsasdeputysecretaryofstatetobothHillaryClintonandJohnKerry.He
isonlythesecondcareerdiplomatinUShistorytohavemadeitthathighupthedepartment.OnBurnss
retirement,KerrylikenedhimtodiplomaticlegendssuchasGeorgeKennanwhoseownlongtelegramfrom
Moscowin1946,explainingthebehaviourofStalinsSovietUnion,iswidelyseenasdefiningthebeginningof
thecoldwar.
ToshieldusfromboisterousofficeworkersdowningredwineastheychomponT-bones,Iaskforatableinthe
corner.Seated,Istudythemenu.Burnsappearsbeforemeafewminuteslater.Heistall,alittlestooped,with
afullheadofgreyhairandamoustachethatgiveshimaslightlymournfullook.Heiswearingawhiteshirtand
redtielargeWhiteHousecufflinksaretheonlytouchesofflamboyance.AlthoughBurnsisbangontime,he
apologisesforbeinglate.
IhavealwaysassumedthatAmericaisnotaculturethatrewardstheself-effacing.YetBurnsappearstobean
exceptiontothisrule.Duringthecourseofourlunch,hewillapologisetomeforbeinglate,fortalkingtoomuch
andfornoteatingsalad.Hewillalsothankmeforbeinggenerouswithmytimeandsuggestthattwocelebrated
diplomaticmemorandumsattributedtohimwere,infact,largelywrittenbyhiscolleagues.ACaucasus
Weddingwasone.Theother,entitledthePerfectStorm,wasco-writtenbyBurnsshortlybeforetheUS
invasionofIraqin2003andaccuratelypredictedmanyofthemaligndevelopmentsthatwouldfollowthe
overthrowofSaddamHussein.
Thesedays,BurnsispresidentoftheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,theoldestinternational
affairsthink-tankintheUS.Hehasbeeninthejobforjust10months,soIaskhimifheisnostalgicforthe
statedepartmentwherehemethiswife,Lisa,whentheywerebothtraineediplomats.Burnsacknowledges
that,aftersomanyyearsatthecentreofevents,hemissestheconstantstreamofthingscomingintoyour
inboxandjusttheadrenalinerush.
Thoseadrenalinrusheswereafairlyregularpartofhiscareer.InAugust1990,

hewasworkinginthepolicyplanningsectionofthestatedepartmentwhen
SaddamHusseininvadedKuwait.Thefollowingyear,therewasanattempted
More coupagainstMikhailGorbachev,thepresidentoftheSovietUnion.Memoriesof
LUNCHWITHTHEFT
thoseeventsgiveBurnsacertainperspectiveontodaysdramas.Asheputsit:
SeppBlatter
IvesatintheSituationRoom[intheWhiteHouse]inrecentyearsandheard
BenBernanke
peoplesaythatthingshaveneverbeenmorechaotic...Thetruthisthat,inthat
NovakDjokovic
period,therewasanawfullotgoingon.
JonathanFranzen,author
Thewaitressarrives.Igoforpottedcrabtostart,followedbyasirloinsteakand
chips,withagreensaladontheside.Burnsoptsforthelessextravagantoptionof
Signupnow
theexpressmenu:atomatosaladfollowedbyahamburger.Askedhowhewants
hisburgerdone,hesaysmedium.Pink,saysthewaitress.Yes,saysBurns,
apparentlyunwillingtoarguethepoint.
Heturnstomeapologeticallyandsays:SorrytobeaboringAmericanandorder
thehamburger.Itisthekindofself-deprecatingremarkthatisliabletoconfirm
FirstFTisournewessential theworstsuspicionsofAmericasmorerabidconservatives,wholiketoaccuse
dailyemailbriefingofthebest thestatedepartmentofconstantlyapologisingforAmerica.IntheRepublican
storiesfromacrosstheweb
partytoday,worldlysophisticatessuchasBurnsaresuspectfigures.Hehasa
doctorateininternationalrelations,gainedwhilestudyingasaMarshallscholarat
Oxforduniversity,andspeaksgoodenoughRussian,ArabicandFrenchtobeable
togivetelevisioninterviewsinallthreelanguages.
TalkingtoBurns,however,Idiscoverthatheisahugeadmirerofanearliergenerationofinternationalist
RepublicanpolicymakersinparticularJimBakerandBrentScowcroft,whoassecretaryofstateandnational
securityadviserhelpedthefirstPresidentBushtonavigatethedangersoftheendofthecoldwar.
ItellBurnsthatmanyEuropeansalsomournthepassingofthatgenerationofRepublicansandaredeeply
alarmedbytheriseofDonaldTrump.BurnsevidentlysympathiseswiththisTrump-phobia.Ifthatever
manifesteditselfinAmericanforeignpolicy,lotsofpeopleoughttobealarmed,hesays,lamentingthatinthe
currentcontestfortheRepublicannomination,theforeignpolicydebatesometimesseemstocomedownto
whowantstobuildabiggerwall,andshoulditbewithMexicoorCanada.
CouldTrumpgettheRepublicannomination?Burnslooksalarmedandshakeshishead.Ihaveaveryhard
timeimaginingthat.
OnethingthatBurnsdidmanagetoimaginewasthechaosthatfollowedtheUSinvasionofIraq.Iaskabouthis
PerfectStormmemo,writtenin2002,whichhasyettobefullydeclassified.Burnssaysthatheandhis
colleaguestriedtolookaheadalittlebitatthesecondandthird-orderconsequencesofinvadingIraqand
addswegotitabouthalf-right,inanticipatingthechallenges,sectarianandotherwise.
SodidheanticipatetheempowermentofIranthatwouldfollowthefallofHussein?Yeah,yeah,hereplies
wearily.Givenallthat,Iaskwhyhehadnotchosentoresign?Burnsrepliesthathehasenormousrespectfor
thehandfulofUSdiplomats,mainlybasedoverseas,whohadresignedinprotestatthedecisiontoinvadeIraq,
butaddsmostofmycolleaguesmadeadifferentdecisiontotryasbestyoucould,tobehonestwithinthe
systemabouttheweaknessesintheargument.Hesaysthat,inretrospect,Thewholenotionthatyoucould
imposedemocracyfromtheoutsidehasbeenproventobehollow.
Asthefoodarrives,weturntothemostpressingproblemoftodaythecontinuingchaosinIraqandSyria.
BurnsquietlysuggeststhattheObamaadministrationofwhichhewasaprominentmemberuntillastyear
gotitwrong.OnSyria,hesays:Weshouldhavetriedharderinearly2012,perhapswithamoreserious
efforttoarmthemoderateSyrianopposition.BeforethemostrecentRussianintervention,Burnshadcometo
believethattheUSanditsalliesshouldcreatesafehavenswithalimitedno-flyzoneinsouthernSyria.Hestill
thinksAmericashouldstepupitsmilitaryroletohelpcreatetheconditionsforapoliticalsolution.Weneedto
enablediplomacybybuildingupsomeleverage.ThatswhatPutinisdoing.
Hehasbeentalkingsomuchthathehasbarelyhadtimetotryhisfood,soIoffertoaskaverylongquestionto
givehimtimetoeat.Sorry,hesays,Ivebeentalkingtoomuch.Iaminterestedtoseeifyearsonthe
diplomaticcircuithavetrainedhimtoeatahamburgerwithaknifeandfork(IhaveevenseenBritish
diplomatseatbananasthisway).But,no,hepicksitupwithhishands.
WeturntoVladimirPutin,whomBurnsgottoobserveatclosequartersduringhisstintasUSambassadorin
Moscow.TheexperiencelefthimconvincedthattheRussianleadertendstobemoreofanimproviserthan
anythingelse.But,Ireply,somepeoplereckonthatPutinhasamasterplantore-createtheSovietUnion.
Burnsrollshiseyesslightly.MyownviewisthathewantstorestoreRussiasstatusasagreatpower...but
thatsnotthesameasreconstructingtheSovietUnion.What,Iask,istheRussianleaderlikepersonally?
Hesverysharp,hetriestointimidatepeopleinconversations...tokeepthemwaitingforlongperiods,Burns
observesmildly.IsaythatonmymostrecentvisittoMoscow,Ihadbeenstruckbythenationalistatmosphere
andatthisBurnsssoftlyspokentonegiveswaytosomethingmoreemphatic.Thatdoesworryme,hesays
firmly,thisconstantsuspicionoffifthcolumnists,thepoisonousatmospherethatcreatedtheconditionsforthe
murderofBorisNemtsov[anoppositionpoliticianwhowaskilledlastFebruary]500metresfromtheKremlin
wall.
ThatpoisonousatmospherehasalsoaffectedtheoperationsoftheCarnegieEndowment,whichhaslonghada
high-profileofficeinMoscowthatprovidedastreamofinfluentialandoftencriticalcommentaryonmodern
Russianpolitics.IaskBurnswhysomeofthatofficesmostprominentcriticsofPutinacademicssuchasLilia
ShevtsovaandMashaLipmanhaveleftCarnegie.ThathappenedbeforeIarrived,henotesquickly,adding
thathebelievesthatthescholarsatCarnegieMoscowarestilldoingstrong,independentwork,butthatitisa
verycomplicatedatmosphereinwhichtooperate.
Asadiplomat,BurnsslastbigassignmentwasthesecretdiplomacywithIran,whichlaidthefoundationforthis
yearsdealtoreinintheIslamicRepublicsnuclearprogrammeinreturnforaneasingofwesternsanctionson
Iran.TheinitialtalkstookplaceatamilitaryguesthouseinOmanwithasuccessionofsecretmeetingsbetween
MarchandNovemberof2013.
Wetalkedfortwoorthreedaysatatime...Itwassometimes130Foutside...
Hawksmoor
Itbecameapparentprettyquicklytheywereseriousaboutattemptingtodothe
11LangleyStreet,London, deal.Itssurprisinginthisdayandagethatwemanagedtokeepitquietaslong
WC2H9JG
aswedid.ButdidhetrusthisIraniancounterparts?Apparently,thatisthe
Sparklingwater3.75
wrongquestion.
PottedBrixhamcrab12 IneveraskedifIcouldtrustthem...Itsadifferentissueaboutwhetheryou
respectthemasprofessionalsandiftheycoulddeliver.So,Isuggest,itwaslike
Sirloinsteak27.50
theoldReagansloganduringarms-controlnegotiationswiththeSoviets:Trust,
Drippingfries4
butverify.No,hereplies,trustwasnottheissueItsallaboutverification.
Lettuceandherbssalad4 Burnshasfinishedhisburgerandhadgenerouslyletmepickathisfries,soI
offerhimsomeofmysidesalad.Hedeclinesandapologisesagainformypoor
Peppercornsauce4
eatinghabits.
Doubleespressox26.50
Forhim,thewiderpointabouttheIrandealwasthatitrestoreddiplomacytoa
2-courseexpressmenu24 centralplaceinUSforeignpolicy.Burnsisthesonofanarmyofficerwhofought
inVietnamandwasborninthemilitarytownofFortBragg,NorthCarolina,so
Heritagetomatosalad
thereisnoreasontodoubthimwhenhesays:Ihaveenormousrespectforthe
Hamburger
USmilitary.Headds,however,thatAmericahastoooftentendedtoputan
emphasisonforce,withdiplomacyusedtoclearthewayformilitaryaction,orto
AgainstHungerdonation1 clearuptheaftermath.
Optionalservice10.59
AsBurnsseesit,thatwasthemistakemadeovertheIraqwar.Inhisview,the
Total96.34
emphasisinUSforeignpolicyshouldbeondiplomacy,withthemilitaryinthe
backgroundasanenabler.ThusinSyriadiplomaticeffortstoendthewarshould
beattheforefrontofpolicy,withthethreatofmilitaryforceusedasameansof
increasingdiplomaticleverage.
OnediplomaticeffortthathasnotpaidoffwasJohnKerrysfreneticeffortin2013and2014tocreatepeace
betweenIsraelandthePalestinians.IputittoBurnsthatsomeofhiscolleagueshadalwaysfeltthatitwas
quixoticofKerrytoattempttogetanIsraeli-Palestiniandealwhensomanyhadfailedbeforehim.Thereisa
hintofasmileashereplies:Iadmiredtheeffort,Ireallydid...Theonlychallengeisthereareopportunity
costs,whenyoulookattheAsia-Pacificrebalanceareferencetothemuch-discussedefforttodevotemore
AmericanattentiontoChina.
Ourplatesarecleared.Itistimeforcoffee.IorderadoubleespressoandBurnsfollowssuit.
WhilethereisjustahintofscepticisminBurnssremarksaboutJohnKerry,hisadmirationforHillaryClinton
seemsunfeigned.Hesaysthat,alongwithJimBaker,shewasthemostprofessionalsecretaryofstatehe
workedfor.Perhapsitwassomethingtodowiththembothbeinglawyersbutitwasveryraretogointoa
roomwiththemandfindsomebodywhowasbetterbriefed.
SomespeculatethatBurnsmightevenreturnassecretaryofstateinaHillaryClintonadministration,buthe
batstheideaawaywithashakeoftheheadwhenIbringitup.
Draininghiscupofcoffee,hesaysheisveryhappyinhisnewrole.Thewell-wornclichaboutspendingmore
timewithhisfamilyactuallyseemstoapplyinBurnsscase.NowIgethomeatadecenttimeatnight.Or,ifI
dont,itsmyownfault.Icantblamesomecrisisintheworld.
GideonRachmanistheFTschiefforeignaffairscommentator
Senttime: 11/08/201507:01:18AM
To: BobOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: FW:FTInterviewwithBillBurns
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3d4619f6-82f8-11e5-8095-ed1a37d1e096.html
LUNCHWITHTHEFT November6,20153:58pm
LunchwiththeFT:BillBurns
GideonRachman
Share Authoralerts Print Clip Fromthememo

GiftArticle Comments
thatpredicted
chaosinIraqtosecretmeetingsaboutanucleardealwithIran,thediplomattalks
abouttheadrenalinerushofalifeininternationaldiplomacy
WhenPresidentObamawantedsomebodytoopensecretnegotiations
withIranin2013,heturnedtoBillBurns,widelyregardedasoneof
thefinestandmostdiscreetUSdiplomatsofhisgeneration.ButasI
waitforthe59-year-oldtoarriveattheCoventGardenbranchof
Hawksmoor,anupmarketchainrestaurantinLondonspecialisingin
steaks,itstrikesmethat,inanotherlife,Burnsmighthimselfhave
writtenanentertainingLunchwiththeFT.
AfterthousandsofAmericandiplomaticcableswereleakedtothe
internationalpressviaWikiLeaksin2010,Burnsfoundhimselfan
unexpectedbeneficiary.ACaucasusWedding,atelegramhesentto
theUSstatedepartmentin2006whilehewasambassadortoRussia,
recountingaraucousthree-dayDagestaniweddingattendedby
ChechnyaspresidentRamzanKadyrov,wasdescribedasaminor
classicofcomicwriting,itstoneverymuchnotwhatonemightexpect
ofadiplomaticcable.
Cooksseemedtokeepwholesheepandwholecowsboilingina
cauldronsomewhere,dayandnight,dumpingdisjointedfragmentsof
thecarcassonthetables,wheneversomeoneenteredtheroom,
JamesFerguson
Burnsnoted.Thealcoholconsumptionbefore,duringandafterthis
Muslimweddingwasstupendous...Therewasalsoentertainment,
althoughGadzismainact,aSyrian-bornsingernamedAvraamRusso,couldnotmakeitbecausehewasshota
fewdaysbeforethewedding.
Burnssdaysofwritingdiplomaticcablesareoverfornow.HeretiredfromtheUSgovernmentlastyearaftera
33-yearcareerthatculminatedinspellsasdeputysecretaryofstatetobothHillaryClintonandJohnKerry.He
isonlythesecondcareerdiplomatinUShistorytohavemadeitthathighupthedepartment.OnBurnss
retirement,KerrylikenedhimtodiplomaticlegendssuchasGeorgeKennanwhoseownlongtelegramfrom
Moscowin1946,explainingthebehaviourofStalinsSovietUnion,iswidelyseenasdefiningthebeginningof
thecoldwar.
ToshieldusfromboisterousofficeworkersdowningredwineastheychomponT-bones,Iaskforatableinthe
corner.Seated,Istudythemenu.Burnsappearsbeforemeafewminuteslater.Heistall,alittlestooped,with
afullheadofgreyhairandamoustachethatgiveshimaslightlymournfullook.Heiswearingawhiteshirtand
redtielargeWhiteHousecufflinksaretheonlytouchesofflamboyance.AlthoughBurnsisbangontime,he
apologisesforbeinglate.
IhavealwaysassumedthatAmericaisnotaculturethatrewardstheself-effacing.YetBurnsappearstobean
exceptiontothisrule.Duringthecourseofourlunch,hewillapologisetomeforbeinglate,fortalkingtoomuch
andfornoteatingsalad.Hewillalsothankmeforbeinggenerouswithmytimeandsuggestthattwocelebrated
diplomaticmemorandumsattributedtohimwere,infact,largelywrittenbyhiscolleagues.ACaucasus
Weddingwasone.Theother,entitledthePerfectStorm,wasco-writtenbyBurnsshortlybeforetheUS
invasionofIraqin2003andaccuratelypredictedmanyofthemaligndevelopmentsthatwouldfollowthe
overthrowofSaddamHussein.
Thesedays,BurnsispresidentoftheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,theoldestinternational
affairsthink-tankintheUS.Hehasbeeninthejobforjust10months,soIaskhimifheisnostalgicforthe
statedepartmentwherehemethiswife,Lisa,whentheywerebothtraineediplomats.Burnsacknowledges
that,aftersomanyyearsatthecentreofevents,hemissestheconstantstreamofthingscomingintoyour
inboxandjusttheadrenalinerush.
Thoseadrenalinrusheswereafairlyregularpartofhiscareer.InAugust1990,

hewasworkinginthepolicyplanningsectionofthestatedepartmentwhen
SaddamHusseininvadedKuwait.Thefollowingyear,therewasanattempted
More coupagainstMikhailGorbachev,thepresidentoftheSovietUnion.Memoriesof
LUNCHWITHTHEFT
thoseeventsgiveBurnsacertainperspectiveontodaysdramas.Asheputsit:
SeppBlatter
IvesatintheSituationRoom[intheWhiteHouse]inrecentyearsandheard
BenBernanke
peoplesaythatthingshaveneverbeenmorechaotic...Thetruthisthat,inthat
NovakDjokovic
period,therewasanawfullotgoingon.
JonathanFranzen,author
Thewaitressarrives.Igoforpottedcrabtostart,followedbyasirloinsteakand
chips,withagreensaladontheside.Burnsoptsforthelessextravagantoptionof
Signupnow
theexpressmenu:atomatosaladfollowedbyahamburger.Askedhowhewants
hisburgerdone,hesaysmedium.Pink,saysthewaitress.Yes,saysBurns,
apparentlyunwillingtoarguethepoint.
Heturnstomeapologeticallyandsays:SorrytobeaboringAmericanandorder
thehamburger.Itisthekindofself-deprecatingremarkthatisliabletoconfirm
FirstFTisournewessential theworstsuspicionsofAmericasmorerabidconservatives,wholiketoaccuse
dailyemailbriefingofthebest thestatedepartmentofconstantlyapologisingforAmerica.IntheRepublican
storiesfromacrosstheweb
partytoday,worldlysophisticatessuchasBurnsaresuspectfigures.Hehasa
doctorateininternationalrelations,gainedwhilestudyingasaMarshallscholarat
Oxforduniversity,andspeaksgoodenoughRussian,ArabicandFrenchtobeable
togivetelevisioninterviewsinallthreelanguages.
TalkingtoBurns,however,Idiscoverthatheisahugeadmirerofanearliergenerationofinternationalist
RepublicanpolicymakersinparticularJimBakerandBrentScowcroft,whoassecretaryofstateandnational
securityadviserhelpedthefirstPresidentBushtonavigatethedangersoftheendofthecoldwar.
ItellBurnsthatmanyEuropeansalsomournthepassingofthatgenerationofRepublicansandaredeeply
alarmedbytheriseofDonaldTrump.BurnsevidentlysympathiseswiththisTrump-phobia.Ifthatever
manifesteditselfinAmericanforeignpolicy,lotsofpeopleoughttobealarmed,hesays,lamentingthatinthe
currentcontestfortheRepublicannomination,theforeignpolicydebatesometimesseemstocomedownto
whowantstobuildabiggerwall,andshoulditbewithMexicoorCanada.
CouldTrumpgettheRepublicannomination?Burnslooksalarmedandshakeshishead.Ihaveaveryhard
timeimaginingthat.
OnethingthatBurnsdidmanagetoimaginewasthechaosthatfollowedtheUSinvasionofIraq.Iaskabouthis
PerfectStormmemo,writtenin2002,whichhasyettobefullydeclassified.Burnssaysthatheandhis
colleaguestriedtolookaheadalittlebitatthesecondandthird-orderconsequencesofinvadingIraqand
addswegotitabouthalf-right,inanticipatingthechallenges,sectarianandotherwise.
SodidheanticipatetheempowermentofIranthatwouldfollowthefallofHussein?Yeah,yeah,hereplies
wearily.Givenallthat,Iaskwhyhehadnotchosentoresign?Burnsrepliesthathehasenormousrespectfor
thehandfulofUSdiplomats,mainlybasedoverseas,whohadresignedinprotestatthedecisiontoinvadeIraq,
butaddsmostofmycolleaguesmadeadifferentdecisiontotryasbestyoucould,tobehonestwithinthe
systemabouttheweaknessesintheargument.Hesaysthat,inretrospect,Thewholenotionthatyoucould
imposedemocracyfromtheoutsidehasbeenproventobehollow.
Asthefoodarrives,weturntothemostpressingproblemoftodaythecontinuingchaosinIraqandSyria.
BurnsquietlysuggeststhattheObamaadministrationofwhichhewasaprominentmemberuntillastyear
gotitwrong.OnSyria,hesays:Weshouldhavetriedharderinearly2012,perhapswithamoreserious
efforttoarmthemoderateSyrianopposition.BeforethemostrecentRussianintervention,Burnshadcometo
believethattheUSanditsalliesshouldcreatesafehavenswithalimitedno-flyzoneinsouthernSyria.Hestill
thinksAmericashouldstepupitsmilitaryroletohelpcreatetheconditionsforapoliticalsolution.Weneedto
enablediplomacybybuildingupsomeleverage.ThatswhatPutinisdoing.
Hehasbeentalkingsomuchthathehasbarelyhadtimetotryhisfood,soIoffertoaskaverylongquestionto
givehimtimetoeat.Sorry,hesays,Ivebeentalkingtoomuch.Iaminterestedtoseeifyearsonthe
diplomaticcircuithavetrainedhimtoeatahamburgerwithaknifeandfork(IhaveevenseenBritish
diplomatseatbananasthisway).But,no,hepicksitupwithhishands.
WeturntoVladimirPutin,whomBurnsgottoobserveatclosequartersduringhisstintasUSambassadorin
Moscow.TheexperiencelefthimconvincedthattheRussianleadertendstobemoreofanimproviserthan
anythingelse.But,Ireply,somepeoplereckonthatPutinhasamasterplantore-createtheSovietUnion.
Burnsrollshiseyesslightly.MyownviewisthathewantstorestoreRussiasstatusasagreatpower...but
thatsnotthesameasreconstructingtheSovietUnion.What,Iask,istheRussianleaderlikepersonally?
Hesverysharp,hetriestointimidatepeopleinconversations...tokeepthemwaitingforlongperiods,Burns
observesmildly.IsaythatonmymostrecentvisittoMoscow,Ihadbeenstruckbythenationalistatmosphere
andatthisBurnsssoftlyspokentonegiveswaytosomethingmoreemphatic.Thatdoesworryme,hesays
firmly,thisconstantsuspicionoffifthcolumnists,thepoisonousatmospherethatcreatedtheconditionsforthe
murderofBorisNemtsov[anoppositionpoliticianwhowaskilledlastFebruary]500metresfromtheKremlin
wall.
ThatpoisonousatmospherehasalsoaffectedtheoperationsoftheCarnegieEndowment,whichhaslonghada
high-profileofficeinMoscowthatprovidedastreamofinfluentialandoftencriticalcommentaryonmodern
Russianpolitics.IaskBurnswhysomeofthatofficesmostprominentcriticsofPutinacademicssuchasLilia
ShevtsovaandMashaLipmanhaveleftCarnegie.ThathappenedbeforeIarrived,henotesquickly,adding
thathebelievesthatthescholarsatCarnegieMoscowarestilldoingstrong,independentwork,butthatitisa
verycomplicatedatmosphereinwhichtooperate.
Asadiplomat,BurnsslastbigassignmentwasthesecretdiplomacywithIran,whichlaidthefoundationforthis
yearsdealtoreinintheIslamicRepublicsnuclearprogrammeinreturnforaneasingofwesternsanctionson
Iran.TheinitialtalkstookplaceatamilitaryguesthouseinOmanwithasuccessionofsecretmeetingsbetween
MarchandNovemberof2013.
Wetalkedfortwoorthreedaysatatime...Itwassometimes130Foutside...
Hawksmoor
Itbecameapparentprettyquicklytheywereseriousaboutattemptingtodothe
11LangleyStreet,London, deal.Itssurprisinginthisdayandagethatwemanagedtokeepitquietaslong
WC2H9JG
aswedid.ButdidhetrusthisIraniancounterparts?Apparently,thatisthe
Sparklingwater3.75
wrongquestion.
PottedBrixhamcrab12 IneveraskedifIcouldtrustthem...Itsadifferentissueaboutwhetheryou
respectthemasprofessionalsandiftheycoulddeliver.So,Isuggest,itwaslike
Sirloinsteak27.50
theoldReagansloganduringarms-controlnegotiationswiththeSoviets:Trust,
Drippingfries4
butverify.No,hereplies,trustwasnottheissueItsallaboutverification.
Lettuceandherbssalad4 Burnshasfinishedhisburgerandhadgenerouslyletmepickathisfries,soI
offerhimsomeofmysidesalad.Hedeclinesandapologisesagainformypoor
Peppercornsauce4
eatinghabits.
Doubleespressox26.50
Forhim,thewiderpointabouttheIrandealwasthatitrestoreddiplomacytoa
2-courseexpressmenu24 centralplaceinUSforeignpolicy.Burnsisthesonofanarmyofficerwhofought
inVietnamandwasborninthemilitarytownofFortBragg,NorthCarolina,so
Heritagetomatosalad
thereisnoreasontodoubthimwhenhesays:Ihaveenormousrespectforthe
Hamburger
USmilitary.Headds,however,thatAmericahastoooftentendedtoputan
emphasisonforce,withdiplomacyusedtoclearthewayformilitaryaction,orto
AgainstHungerdonation1 clearuptheaftermath.
Optionalservice10.59
AsBurnsseesit,thatwasthemistakemadeovertheIraqwar.Inhisview,the
Total96.34
emphasisinUSforeignpolicyshouldbeondiplomacy,withthemilitaryinthe
backgroundasanenabler.ThusinSyriadiplomaticeffortstoendthewarshould
beattheforefrontofpolicy,withthethreatofmilitaryforceusedasameansof
increasingdiplomaticleverage.
OnediplomaticeffortthathasnotpaidoffwasJohnKerrysfreneticeffortin2013and2014tocreatepeace
betweenIsraelandthePalestinians.IputittoBurnsthatsomeofhiscolleagueshadalwaysfeltthatitwas
quixoticofKerrytoattempttogetanIsraeli-Palestiniandealwhensomanyhadfailedbeforehim.Thereisa
hintofasmileashereplies:Iadmiredtheeffort,Ireallydid...Theonlychallengeisthereareopportunity
costs,whenyoulookattheAsia-Pacificrebalanceareferencetothemuch-discussedefforttodevotemore
AmericanattentiontoChina.
Ourplatesarecleared.Itistimeforcoffee.IorderadoubleespressoandBurnsfollowssuit.
WhilethereisjustahintofscepticisminBurnssremarksaboutJohnKerry,hisadmirationforHillaryClinton
seemsunfeigned.Hesaysthat,alongwithJimBaker,shewasthemostprofessionalsecretaryofstatehe
workedfor.Perhapsitwassomethingtodowiththembothbeinglawyersbutitwasveryraretogointoa
roomwiththemandfindsomebodywhowasbetterbriefed.
SomespeculatethatBurnsmightevenreturnassecretaryofstateinaHillaryClintonadministration,buthe
batstheideaawaywithashakeoftheheadwhenIbringitup.
Draininghiscupofcoffee,hesaysheisveryhappyinhisnewrole.Thewell-wornclichaboutspendingmore
timewithhisfamilyactuallyseemstoapplyinBurnsscase.NowIgethomeatadecenttimeatnight.Or,ifI
dont,itsmyownfault.Icantblamesomecrisisintheworld.
GideonRachmanistheFTschiefforeignaffairscommentator
Senttime: 11/02/201502:46:39PM
FW:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]ConsistentRussianpolicy
Subject:
[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEcon...
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]ConsistentRussian
policy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEcon...
Date:Mon,Nov2,2015at2:01PM
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]
ConsistentRussianpolicy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenby
EconomicFear"......Fwd:LadaR:AboutDrunkenRUSpies&Truth.....FPBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
To:
Subject:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]Consistent
Russianpolicy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEconomic
Fear"......Fwd:LadaR:AboutDrunkenRUSpies&Truth.....FPBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
From:AndersAslund<AAslund@atlanticcouncil.org>
Subject:UkraineMustNotPayRussia
To:
DearFriends,
PleasefindbelowlinktomyAtlanticCouncilblogpostthatUkrainemustnotpayRussia$3billionfortheEurobonddesignedtosave
Yanukovych.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/ukraine-must-not-pay-russia
Bestregards,
Anders
Andersslund|SeniorFellow
103015thStreet,NW,12thFloor|Washington,DC20005
E:AAslund@AtlanticCouncil.org|Phone:(202)864-2848
Followmeontwitter:@anders_aslund
www.facebook.com/AtlanticCouncil|@AtlanticCouncil|www.atlanticcouncil.org
Readmynewbook:"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt"
Subject:Sinaiplanecrash:'Externalinfluence'causedcrash-BBCNews
MaybeitwasjustKarma.
Subject:ConsistentRussianpolicy[ED:Compare&Contrast]
To:1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,1WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wderzko@pathcom.com
Subject:RussianLawAllowingSeizureofForeign-OwnedAssetsPassedbyFederationCouncil
RussianLawAllowingSeizureofForeign-OwnedAssetsPassedbyFederationCouncil
TheMoscowTimes
Oct.28201520:11
Russia'supperchamberofparliamenthasapprovedabilltoallowretaliatorymeasuresinresponsetotheseizureofRussianassetsabroad,the
RIANovostinewsagencyreportedWednesday.
ThelawgivesauthoritiesthepowertolimitthelegalimmunityofaforeigncountryanditspropertyonRussianterritoryinresponsetosimilar
restrictioninthatcountry.
ItnowawaitsPresidentVladimirPutin'ssignaturebeforebecominglaw.
Undercurrentlegislation,Russiancourtscannotseizeassetsbelongingtoforeigngovernments.AccordingtoDeputyJusticeMinisterDmitry
Aristov,thisputsRussiainaweakpositiontoprotectitsinterests,theTASSnewsagencyreportedWednesday.
AristovsaidtheintroductionofthelawbecomeapriorityfollowinganumberofillegalactionsagainstRussiaanditspropertyoverseas.
Earlierthisyear,RussianassetswereseizedinBelgiumandFranceafterthearbitrationcourtinTheHagueorderedRussiatopay$50billionin
compensationtoformershareholdersoilfirmYukos,whichwasdismemberedinthemid2000safteritsowner,MikhailKhodorkovsky,was
jailedonchargesoftaxevasion.
Russiarefusedtocarryoutthecourt'sdecision.
OtherassetshavealsobeenfrozenfollowingtheintroductionlastyearofsanctionsbyWesterncountriesagainstRussiaoveritsroleinUkraine,
includingsomebelongingtostate-runnewsagenciesTASSandRossiyaSegodnya
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/540597.html
Subject:Putindrivenbyeconomicfears,saysformerRussiafinancier,BillBrowder,
Putindrivenbyeconomicfears,saysformerRussiafinancier
OutspokencriticBillBrowderwarnsRussianmilitaryactivityinSyriaisaimedateasingWesternsanctions
BillBrowder,aformerMoscowbasedhedgefundmanager,saysRussia'smilitaryactioninSyriahasmoretodowitheconomicsthanpolitics.
By:OliviaWardForeignAffairsReporter,PublishedonSunNov012015
RussiasmilitaryactioninSyriaisaploytoeasewesternsanctionsthatpunishMoscowforitsincursionsintoUkraine,saysanauthorityon
Russiaseconomicsystem,andformermajorinvestor.
RussiasairstrikesandtroopsinSyriaarearelativelyinexpensivegambitthatcostsabout$2millionaday,BillBrowdersaidonavisitto
Torontothisweek.Butwhenitcausesanotherfloodofrefugees,theWestcouldbuckle.
Browder,aformerMoscowbasedhedgefundmanagerwhofoundedmultibilliondollarHermitageCapitalManagement,contendsthat
Russiasmilitarymoveismoreeconomicthanpolitical.
Byjoiningtheconflict,headds,(PresidentVladimir)PutinthinkstherewillbeaUNstyledivisionofSyria,andhewillbepartofit.Putin
understandshowvolatiletherefugeesituationis.
Itsgeopolitics.PutinwouldkeepwhathehasinUkraine,andUkrainewouldbethrownunderthebus.
Russianairstrikeshavebeencitedasacauseofanewrefugeeflight,andcriticizedbytheU.S.andotherwesterncountriesasaneffortto
keepMoscowallyPresidentBasharAssadinpower.
WashingtonanditsallieshavebombedSyriaformorethanayearwithoutbreakingtheholdofIslamicStatejihadiststhoughtheairstrikes
havealsocausedcivilianstofleetheirhomes.
ButBrowderargues,RussiasrushtobattleinSyriacouldbringmoreriskthanreward.
Acombinationofahardcurrencydebt,thesinkingrubleandlowoilpricescompoundedbycapitalflightandthedifficultyofgettingwestern
financingisputtingthestabilityofthePutinregimeinperil,hesays.
Andheadds,amuchpublicizedcampaigntoblockandevendestroyimportedwesternfood,isameasuretosavedwindlinghardcurrency
reserves.
WorryovertheSyrianventurehasalreadytrickleddowntotheRussianstreet,accordingtoarecentsurveybytheindependentMoscow
basedLevadaCenter.
Itfoundthat41percentofrespondentsfearthemilitaryoperationwillexhaustfundsneededtosolvesocialproblems,whileanother39per
centfearthedeathofRussiansoldiersinSyriaorinterroristattacksathome.
InspiteofadramaticmeetingwithAssadinMoscowthisweek,andreportsthattheSyrianleaderwasreadytocallparliamentaryand
presidentialpollsitisdoubtfulthatPutincouldtopushSyriatowardasettlementthathaseludedtheWest.
EquallyunlikelyistheprospectofMoscowrejoiningwesterncountriesforbusinessasusual,afteritsannexationofCrimeaandbackingof
separatistrebelsineasternUkraine.
SofarneitherthemilitaryactionsinUkraineorSyriaappeartohavepuncturedPutinsbuoyantpopularityinRussia,althoughincreasing
worriesovertheeconomycoulddragitdownwhenthecostsbecomeclear.
Heisputtingonabraveface,saysBrowder,butwhenhelooksattheeconomiccosts,hesdeeplyfrightened.
InCanadaearlierthisweek,BrowderwascampaigningfortoughersanctionsagainstRussiaforthekillingofhisformertaxlawyer,Sergei
Magnitsky,whodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afterblowingthewhistleonamassive$320milliontaxfraudinvolvingRussianofficials.
RussiaclaimsMagnitskydiedfromnaturalcauses,butaRussianhumanrightsreportshowedevidenceofpossibletortureandmedical
neglect.
BrowderwantsprimeministerdesignateJustinTrudeautoadoptsanctionssimilartothosepassedbytheU.S.Congress,whichbarred
officialsnamedresponsibleforMagnitskysdeathfromtraveltotheU.S.,andfrozetheirassets.
Russiaretaliatedwithpunitiveantiwesternsanctions.
TheLiberalssaidtheywouldimmediatelyexpandCanadaslistofsanctionedRussianstoincludeinfluentialbusinessmenandclosePutin
supporters,IgorSechinandVladimirYakunin.
BrowderhaslivedinLondonsince2005,whenhewasexpelledfromRussiaasathreattonationalsecurity,afterchallengingcorrupt
practices.
SinceMagnitskysdeathhehascampaignedtirelesslyforsanctionstopunishtheallegedperpetrators,andtocurbMoscowsescalating
humanrightsviolations.HeisnowunderanineyearRussianjailsentenceinabsentiaonwidelydisputedchargesoftaxfraud.
BrowdermaintainsthatPutinsincreasinglyauthoritarianstylehasnowcrossedthelinetototalitarian.
AsRussiasantiWesternsentimentreachespostSoviethighs,Putinhasdeepenedhiscrackdownagainstsuspecteddomesticpolitical
opponents.ThedeathsofseveralKremlinfoesinmurkycircumstanceshaveraisedfearsofadarkeningpoliticallandscape.
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/11/01/putin-driven-by-economic-fears-says-former-russia-financier.html
From:RoslyckyLada<l.roslycky@uatoday.tv>
Subject:anynewsonsecurityevent?[/how-many-drunken-russian-spies-needed-to-get-to-the-truth]
Bytheway,notsureifyoureadthis:
http://uatoday.tv/opinion/how-many-drunken-russian-spies-needed-to-get-to-the-truth-524207.html
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@earthlink.net>
Subject:ImperialGamble|BrookingsInstitution
AnewofferingfromBrookings.NotedwithoutcommentasIhavenothadachancetoreadit.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports2/2015/07/imperial-gamble?
utm_campaign=Brookings+Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=23345040&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-
9_5z564qjBH32BbaSkjbozJ364WO5KTyx4T3K4Lib_O_5pflFPbOvLJUG_9yIc3l4bW_s3_zIBZJHOZ0yuy4tqApPWYQ&_hsmi=23345040
[ED:Actually.....thereissomethingtonoticeimmediately]
MarvinKalb,aformerjournalistandHarvardprofessor,traceshowtheCrimeaofCatherinetheGreatbecameaglobal
tinderbox.TheworldwasstunnedwhenVladimirPutininvadedandseizedCrimeainMarch2014.Shortlythereafter,the
RussiansthrewtheirsupportbehindsecessionistrebelsinneighboringUkraine,pitchingthecountryintoabrutaland
continuingcivilwar.AnominousandsharpdeteriorationinEast-Westrelationsfollowed.
InImperialGamble:Putin,Ukraine,andtheNewColdWar,MarvinKalbbringstolifethegeography,powerpolitics,and
historyofUkraineonceknowasKievenRus,ortheFirstRussia.Hetakesacriticallookatthetorturedhistoryofpost-
SovietRussiaandUkraine,andjourneysdeepintotheRussianpasttouncovertherootsofRussianandUkrainian
nationalism.
[ED:SIMPLEQUESTION----What'swithKievenRus'(actuallyKyivanRus'....orperhapsevenmore
simply'thecity-stateofKyivy')as'FirstRussia'?Why??Inreality,'Russia'isa16th-18thc.Moscow-
centricconstruct....]
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Subject:FPIBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
To:Walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FollowandSupportFPI

FPIBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
ByFPISeniorPolicyAnalystEvanMooreandFPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnik
OnFriday,rocketsfiredbyBasharal-Assadstroopsslammedintoanopen-airmarketintheDamascussuburbofDouma.Airstrikes,mortars,andartilleryfire
followedtheinitialattack,leavingatotalof65deadandhundredswounded.InresponsetotherelentlessbrutalityoftheSyrianregime,supportisgrowing
onbothsidesoftheaisleandwithintheObamaadministrationfortheimpositionofano-flyzonethatwouldpreventAssadsforcesfromsowingterrorwith
itsairforces.
GrowingBipartisanSupport
Fouryearsago,inhisannualaddresstotheU.N.GeneralAssembly,PresidentObamaasked,Aswemeetheretoday,menandwomenandchildrenarebeing
tortured,detainedandmurderedbytheSyrianregime.thequestionforusisclear:WillwestandwiththeSyrianpeople,orwiththeiroppressors?Whilethere
hasbeennolackofsympathyfortheplightoftheSyrianpeoplesincethen,therehasalsobeennodecisiveactiontoprotectthemfromtheviolencethathasnow
claimedanestimated300,000lives,driven4millionSyriansfromtheircountry,anddisplacednearlyanother8millionwithinSyriasborders.
InApril,fourprominentSenatorsDickDurbin(D-IL),LindseyGraham(R-SC),TimKaine(D-VA),andJohnMcCain(R-AZ)sentalettertoPresidentObama
callingonhimtoestablishhumanitariansafezonesinSyria,withthenecessaryenforcementmechanisms,includingthepotentialuseofairassetssothatcivilians
canbeprotectedandreceiveunfetteredhumanitarianaid.Kainelaterobservedthathewasoriginallyanopponentofano-flyzonewhenitwasfirstproposedby
Sen.McCain,yeteventsonthegroundhadpersuadedhimofitsnecessity.
TheadventoftheSyrianrefugeecrisisaswellasthearrivalofRussianforcesintheatersharplyacceleratedthegrowthofpublicsupportforano-flyzone.The
dayafterRussianbombsbegantofallinSyria,formerSecretaryofStateHillaryRodhamClintonsaid,Ipersonallywouldbeadvocatingnowforano-flyzoneand
humanitariancorridorstotrytostopthecarnageonthegroundandfromtheair.Clintonssupportfollowedendorsementsofano-flyzonebyRepublican
candidates,formerFloridaGov.JebBushandFloridaSen.MarcoRubio.
InOctober,severalotherGOPcandidatesannouncedtheirsupportforano-flyzone,withDonaldTrumpthemostnotableopponentoftheidea.Clintons
opponents,Sen.BernieSanders(I-VT)andformerMarylandGov.MartinOMalleybothopposetheideaaswell.
Nationalsecurityexpertshavealsojoinedthedebate.FormerSecretaryofDefenseRobertGatesandSecretaryofStateCondoleezzaRicewrote,No-flyzonesand
safeharborsforpopulationsarenothalf-bakedideas.Theyworkedbefore(protectingtheKurdsfor12yearsunderSaddamHusseinsreignofterror)and
warrantseriousconsideration.Wewillcontinuetohaverefugeesuntilpeoplearesafe.Inshort,wemustcreateabettermilitarybalanceofpowerontheground
ifwearetoseekapoliticalsolutionacceptabletousandtoourallies.
GatesandRicewererespondingdirectlytocommentsbyPresidentObama,whodismissedproposalsforano-flyzonebysaying,whenIhearpeopleofferingup
half-bakedideasasiftheyaresolutions,ortryingtodownplaythechallengesinvolvedinthissituationwhatIdliketoseepeopleaskis,specifically,precisely,
whatexactlywouldyoudo,andhowwouldyoufundit,andhowwouldyousustainit?Andtypically,whatyougetisabunchofmumbojumbo.
PresidentObamasownadvisers,includingSecretaryofStateJohnKerry,havenotfoundhisdismissaltobepersuasive,however.TheNewYork
TimesreportedonFriday,TheObamaadministrationislockedinasharpnewdebateoverwhethertodeployAmericanmilitaryforcestoestablishno-flyzones
andsafehavensinSyriatoprotectcivilianscaughtinitsgrindingcivilwar.AmongtheoptionsreportedlybeingconsideredareareasalongSyriasborderwith
TurkeyandJordanthatcouldeitherbeexclusivelyforhumanitarianrelief,orsanctuaryforSyrianoppositionforcesalliedwithAmericans.
Seniormilitaryexpertshaveexpressedtheirbeliefthatano-flyzoneiseminentlypractical.InSenatetestimonyonSeptember22,GeneralDavidPetraeusmade
anemphaticcaseforenclavesinSyriaprotectedbycoalitionairpower,whereamoderateSunniforcecouldbesupportedandwhereadditionalforcescouldbe
trained,InternallyDisplacedPersonscouldfindrefuge,andtheSyrianoppositioncouldorganize.ThecentralprobleminSyria,Petraeussaid,isthatSunni
ArabswillnotbewillingpartnersagainsttheIslamicStateunlesswecommittoprotectthemandthebroaderSyrianpopulationagainstallenemies,notjustISIS.
OnOctober8,retiredArmyGeneralandformerViceChiefofStaffJackKeanetoldtheSenateArmedServicesCommitteethatPutinhasbegunaproxywarwith
theU.S.whenRussiancombataircraftstruck,continuously,moderaterebelforcestrainedbytheCIA.Inresponse,GeneralKeanerecommendedU.S.craterthe
AlAssadrunway[whichisbeingusedbyRussiatostriketargetsinSyria],establishfreezonesthataresanctuariesforrefugees,[and]strikeAssadshelicopter
fleetthatisbarrelbombing.
Meanwhile,SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonreiteratedhersupportduringthefirstDemocraticprimarydebate,saying,Wehavetostandupto[Putins]bullying,
andspecificallyinSyria,itisimportanttoprovidesafezonessothatpeoplearenotgoingtohavetobefloodingoutofSyriaattheratetheyare.And,Ithinkit's
importanttoothattheUnitedStatesmakeitverycleartoPutinthatit'snotacceptableforhimtobeinSyriacreatingmorechaos,bombingpeopleonbehalfof
Assad,andwecan'tdothatifwedon'ttakemoreofaleadershipposition.
TheChallengesofImposingaNo-FlyZone
Whenconfrontedwithcallsforano-flyzone,theadministrationhasreliedonPentagonleaderstoquestionthepracticalityandcostoftheidea.Initsreporton
divisionswiththeadministration,theNewYorkTimesdescribedhowSecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterpresentedsoberingestimatesoftheextensivemilitary
resourcesrequiredtoenforcesuchzones,duringarecentNationalSecurityCouncilmeeting,leavingmanyatthetabledubiousaboutthewisdomoftaking
action.
SecretaryCartersobjectionsechosimilarconcernsfromtheformerChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,GeneralMartinDempsey.InJuly2013,
Dempseywarnedthatestablishingano-flyzonewouldrequirehundredsofgroundandsea-basedaircraft,intelligenceandelectronicwarfaresupport,and
enablersforrefuelingandcommunications.Estimatedcostsare$500millioninitially,averagingasmuchasabilliondollarspermonthoverthecourseofayear.
Atthesametime,anindependentanalysisbyChristopherHarmeroftheInstitutefortheStudyofWarfoundthatAmericanairandnavalforcescouldimposea
no-flyzonebydestroyingtherunwaysatSyrianAirForcebases.HarmerconcludedthatthismissioncouldbeaccomplishedatverylowcostwithoutU.S.
aircraftevenenteringSyrianairspace,sinceU.S.forceshaveweaponswithsufficientrangetostrikefromadistance.
Unquestionably,thepresenceofRussianforceswillcomplicateanyefforttoimposeano-flyzone,yetarangeofoptionsremainavailabletotheadministration,
noneofwhichinvolveadirectconfrontationwithRussia.Byplacinganti-aircraftweaponsjustacrossthebordersthatSyriashareswithJordanandTurkey,the
U.S.couldcrediblythreatentoshootdownSyrianaircraftthatflyoverrebel-heldterritorynearthoseborders.SinceRussianaircraftareonlyflyingoutofasingle
baseneartheSyriancoast,theU.S.couldalsopursueHarmers2013proposalfordestroyingSyrianmilitaryrunways.
DiplomaticLeverage
Successatthenegotiatingtabledependsonestablishingfavorablepositionsontheground.OnFriday,foreignministersfrom20nationsgatheredinViennato
discussthefutureofSyria.AheadofthemeetinginVienna,theObamaadministrationhadalreadybeguntomakeconcessions.OnceinsistentthatBasharal-
AssadmuststepdowninordertofacilitateapeacefultransitioninSyria,theadministrationnowsaysthatAssadmayremaininpowerseveralmonthslonger.
ItisparticularlytroublingthattheseU.S.concessionshavefollowedRussiasinterventionandIransdeploymentofcombatforcestoSyria.Toreversethat
dynamic,theU.S.oughttoincreaseitsownleveragebyestablishingano-flyzone,whosehumanitarianbenefitsshouldbecomplementedbyaseriouseffortto
trainandequipSyrianoppositionforcesinareasnolongeraccessibletoAssadsairforce.
ThecivilwarinSyriademonstratesthecostofAmericanpassivity.ThewarhasenabledISIStothrivewhileenablingRussiatoreturntotheMiddleEastaftera40
yearabsence.ThelongerPresidentObamawaitstotakedecisiveaction,theworsethesituationwillget.
AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative
FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreign
policycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisledbyExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoard
ofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visitourwebsiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.
IfyousupportFPI'smission,pleaseconsidermakingatax-deductibledonationtoday.
TheForeignPolicyInitiative Telephone:(202)296-3322
11DupontCircle,NWSuite325 E-mail:info@foreignpolicyi.org
Washington,D.C.20036 VisitOurWebsite
Tounsubscribe,clickhere DonatetoFPI
Senttime: 11/02/201502:46:39PM
FW:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]ConsistentRussianpolicy
Subject:
[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEcon...
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]ConsistentRussian
policy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEcon...
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]
ConsistentRussianpolicy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenby
EconomicFear"......Fwd:LadaR:AboutDrunkenRUSpies&Truth.....FPBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
To:
Subject:[ITEMSOFNOTE....NOV2]Fwd:AndersA:UkraineMustNotPayRussia.......Fwd:[PB]Sinaiplanecrash&[WD]Consistent
Russianpolicy[Compare/Contrast]......[Fwd:[WD]RULawAllowsSeizureofForeign-OwnedAsset&Browder:"PutinDrivenbyEconomic
Fear"......Fwd:LadaR:AboutDrunkenRUSpies&Truth.....FPBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
From:AndersAslund<AAslund@atlanticcouncil.org>
Subject:UkraineMustNotPayRussia
To:
DearFriends,
PleasefindbelowlinktomyAtlanticCouncilblogpostthatUkrainemustnotpayRussia$3billionfortheEurobonddesignedtosave
Yanukovych.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/ukraine-must-not-pay-russia
Bestregards,
Anders
Andersslund|SeniorFellow
103015thStreet,NW,12thFloor|Washington,DC20005
E:AAslund@AtlanticCouncil.org|Phone:(202)864-2848
Followmeontwitter:@anders_aslund
www.facebook.com/AtlanticCouncil|@AtlanticCouncil|www.atlanticcouncil.org
Readmynewbook:"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt"
Subject:Sinaiplanecrash:'Externalinfluence'causedcrash-BBCNews
MaybeitwasjustKarma.
Subject:ConsistentRussianpolicy[ED:Compare&Contrast]
Subject:RussianLawAllowingSeizureofForeign-OwnedAssetsPassedbyFederationCouncil
RussianLawAllowingSeizureofForeign-OwnedAssetsPassedbyFederationCouncil
TheMoscowTimes
Oct.28201520:11
Russia'supperchamberofparliamenthasapprovedabilltoallowretaliatorymeasuresinresponsetotheseizureofRussianassetsabroad,the
RIANovostinewsagencyreportedWednesday.
ThelawgivesauthoritiesthepowertolimitthelegalimmunityofaforeigncountryanditspropertyonRussianterritoryinresponsetosimilar
restrictioninthatcountry.
ItnowawaitsPresidentVladimirPutin'ssignaturebeforebecominglaw.
Undercurrentlegislation,Russiancourtscannotseizeassetsbelongingtoforeigngovernments.AccordingtoDeputyJusticeMinisterDmitry
Aristov,thisputsRussiainaweakpositiontoprotectitsinterests,theTASSnewsagencyreportedWednesday.
AristovsaidtheintroductionofthelawbecomeapriorityfollowinganumberofillegalactionsagainstRussiaanditspropertyoverseas.
Earlierthisyear,RussianassetswereseizedinBelgiumandFranceafterthearbitrationcourtinTheHagueorderedRussiatopay$50billionin
compensationtoformershareholdersoilfirmYukos,whichwasdismemberedinthemid2000safteritsowner,MikhailKhodorkovsky,was
jailedonchargesoftaxevasion.
Russiarefusedtocarryoutthecourt'sdecision.
OtherassetshavealsobeenfrozenfollowingtheintroductionlastyearofsanctionsbyWesterncountriesagainstRussiaoveritsroleinUkraine,
includingsomebelongingtostate-runnewsagenciesTASSandRossiyaSegodnya
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/540597.html
Subject:Putindrivenbyeconomicfears,saysformerRussiafinancier,BillBrowder,
Putindrivenbyeconomicfears,saysformerRussiafinancier
OutspokencriticBillBrowderwarnsRussianmilitaryactivityinSyriaisaimedateasingWesternsanctions
BillBrowder,aformerMoscowbasedhedgefundmanager,saysRussia'smilitaryactioninSyriahasmoretodowitheconomicsthanpolitics.
By:OliviaWardForeignAffairsReporter,PublishedonSunNov012015
RussiasmilitaryactioninSyriaisaploytoeasewesternsanctionsthatpunishMoscowforitsincursionsintoUkraine,saysanauthorityon
Russiaseconomicsystem,andformermajorinvestor.
RussiasairstrikesandtroopsinSyriaarearelativelyinexpensivegambitthatcostsabout$2millionaday,BillBrowdersaidonavisitto
Torontothisweek.Butwhenitcausesanotherfloodofrefugees,theWestcouldbuckle.
Browder,aformerMoscowbasedhedgefundmanagerwhofoundedmultibilliondollarHermitageCapitalManagement,contendsthat
Russiasmilitarymoveismoreeconomicthanpolitical.
Byjoiningtheconflict,headds,(PresidentVladimir)PutinthinkstherewillbeaUNstyledivisionofSyria,andhewillbepartofit.Putin
understandshowvolatiletherefugeesituationis.
Itsgeopolitics.PutinwouldkeepwhathehasinUkraine,andUkrainewouldbethrownunderthebus.
Russianairstrikeshavebeencitedasacauseofanewrefugeeflight,andcriticizedbytheU.S.andotherwesterncountriesasaneffortto
keepMoscowallyPresidentBasharAssadinpower.
WashingtonanditsallieshavebombedSyriaformorethanayearwithoutbreakingtheholdofIslamicStatejihadiststhoughtheairstrikes
havealsocausedcivilianstofleetheirhomes.
ButBrowderargues,RussiasrushtobattleinSyriacouldbringmoreriskthanreward.
Acombinationofahardcurrencydebt,thesinkingrubleandlowoilpricescompoundedbycapitalflightandthedifficultyofgettingwestern
financingisputtingthestabilityofthePutinregimeinperil,hesays.
Andheadds,amuchpublicizedcampaigntoblockandevendestroyimportedwesternfood,isameasuretosavedwindlinghardcurrency
reserves.
WorryovertheSyrianventurehasalreadytrickleddowntotheRussianstreet,accordingtoarecentsurveybytheindependentMoscow
basedLevadaCenter.
Itfoundthat41percentofrespondentsfearthemilitaryoperationwillexhaustfundsneededtosolvesocialproblems,whileanother39per
centfearthedeathofRussiansoldiersinSyriaorinterroristattacksathome.
InspiteofadramaticmeetingwithAssadinMoscowthisweek,andreportsthattheSyrianleaderwasreadytocallparliamentaryand
presidentialpollsitisdoubtfulthatPutincouldtopushSyriatowardasettlementthathaseludedtheWest.
EquallyunlikelyistheprospectofMoscowrejoiningwesterncountriesforbusinessasusual,afteritsannexationofCrimeaandbackingof
separatistrebelsineasternUkraine.
SofarneitherthemilitaryactionsinUkraineorSyriaappeartohavepuncturedPutinsbuoyantpopularityinRussia,althoughincreasing
worriesovertheeconomycoulddragitdownwhenthecostsbecomeclear.
Heisputtingonabraveface,saysBrowder,butwhenhelooksattheeconomiccosts,hesdeeplyfrightened.
InCanadaearlierthisweek,BrowderwascampaigningfortoughersanctionsagainstRussiaforthekillingofhisformertaxlawyer,Sergei
Magnitsky,whodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afterblowingthewhistleonamassive$320milliontaxfraudinvolvingRussianofficials.
RussiaclaimsMagnitskydiedfromnaturalcauses,butaRussianhumanrightsreportshowedevidenceofpossibletortureandmedical
neglect.
BrowderwantsprimeministerdesignateJustinTrudeautoadoptsanctionssimilartothosepassedbytheU.S.Congress,whichbarred
officialsnamedresponsibleforMagnitskysdeathfromtraveltotheU.S.,andfrozetheirassets.
Russiaretaliatedwithpunitiveantiwesternsanctions.
TheLiberalssaidtheywouldimmediatelyexpandCanadaslistofsanctionedRussianstoincludeinfluentialbusinessmenandclosePutin
supporters,IgorSechinandVladimirYakunin.
BrowderhaslivedinLondonsince2005,whenhewasexpelledfromRussiaasathreattonationalsecurity,afterchallengingcorrupt
practices.
SinceMagnitskysdeathhehascampaignedtirelesslyforsanctionstopunishtheallegedperpetrators,andtocurbMoscowsescalating
humanrightsviolations.HeisnowunderanineyearRussianjailsentenceinabsentiaonwidelydisputedchargesoftaxfraud.
BrowdermaintainsthatPutinsincreasinglyauthoritarianstylehasnowcrossedthelinetototalitarian.
AsRussiasantiWesternsentimentreachespostSoviethighs,Putinhasdeepenedhiscrackdownagainstsuspecteddomesticpolitical
opponents.ThedeathsofseveralKremlinfoesinmurkycircumstanceshaveraisedfearsofadarkeningpoliticallandscape.
http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/11/01/putin-driven-by-economic-fears-says-former-russia-financier.html
From:RoslyckyLada<l.roslycky@uatoday.tv>
Subject:anynewsonsecurityevent?[/how-many-drunken-russian-spies-needed-to-get-to-the-truth]
Bytheway,notsureifyoureadthis:
http://uatoday.tv/opinion/how-many-drunken-russian-spies-needed-to-get-to-the-truth-524207.html
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@earthlink.net>
Subject:ImperialGamble|BrookingsInstitution
AnewofferingfromBrookings.NotedwithoutcommentasIhavenothadachancetoreadit.
http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports2/2015/07/imperial-gamble?
utm_campaign=Brookings+Brief&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=23345040&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-
9_5z564qjBH32BbaSkjbozJ364WO5KTyx4T3K4Lib_O_5pflFPbOvLJUG_9yIc3l4bW_s3_zIBZJHOZ0yuy4tqApPWYQ&_hsmi=23345040
[ED:Actually.....thereissomethingtonoticeimmediately]
MarvinKalb,aformerjournalistandHarvardprofessor,traceshowtheCrimeaofCatherinetheGreatbecameaglobal
tinderbox.TheworldwasstunnedwhenVladimirPutininvadedandseizedCrimeainMarch2014.Shortlythereafter,the
RussiansthrewtheirsupportbehindsecessionistrebelsinneighboringUkraine,pitchingthecountryintoabrutaland
continuingcivilwar.AnominousandsharpdeteriorationinEast-Westrelationsfollowed.
InImperialGamble:Putin,Ukraine,andtheNewColdWar,MarvinKalbbringstolifethegeography,powerpolitics,and
historyofUkraineonceknowasKievenRus,ortheFirstRussia.Hetakesacriticallookatthetorturedhistoryofpost-
SovietRussiaandUkraine,andjourneysdeepintotheRussianpasttouncovertherootsofRussianandUkrainian
nationalism.
[ED:SIMPLEQUESTION----What'swithKievenRus'(actuallyKyivanRus'....orperhapsevenmore
simply'thecity-stateofKyivy')as'FirstRussia'?Why??Inreality,'Russia'isa16th-18thc.Moscow-
centricconstruct....]
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Subject:FPIBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
To:Walter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FollowandSupportFPI

FPIBulletin:BipartisanSupportGrowsForSyriaNo-FlyZones
ByFPISeniorPolicyAnalystEvanMooreandFPIPolicyDirectorDavidAdesnik
OnFriday,rocketsfiredbyBasharal-Assadstroopsslammedintoanopen-airmarketintheDamascussuburbofDouma.Airstrikes,mortars,andartilleryfire
followedtheinitialattack,leavingatotalof65deadandhundredswounded.InresponsetotherelentlessbrutalityoftheSyrianregime,supportisgrowing
onbothsidesoftheaisleandwithintheObamaadministrationfortheimpositionofano-flyzonethatwouldpreventAssadsforcesfromsowingterrorwith
itsairforces.
GrowingBipartisanSupport
Fouryearsago,inhisannualaddresstotheU.N.GeneralAssembly,PresidentObamaasked,Aswemeetheretoday,menandwomenandchildrenarebeing
tortured,detainedandmurderedbytheSyrianregime.thequestionforusisclear:WillwestandwiththeSyrianpeople,orwiththeiroppressors?Whilethere
hasbeennolackofsympathyfortheplightoftheSyrianpeoplesincethen,therehasalsobeennodecisiveactiontoprotectthemfromtheviolencethathasnow
claimedanestimated300,000lives,driven4millionSyriansfromtheircountry,anddisplacednearlyanother8millionwithinSyriasborders.
InApril,fourprominentSenatorsDickDurbin(D-IL),LindseyGraham(R-SC),TimKaine(D-VA),andJohnMcCain(R-AZ)sentalettertoPresidentObama
callingonhimtoestablishhumanitariansafezonesinSyria,withthenecessaryenforcementmechanisms,includingthepotentialuseofairassetssothatcivilians
canbeprotectedandreceiveunfetteredhumanitarianaid.Kainelaterobservedthathewasoriginallyanopponentofano-flyzonewhenitwasfirstproposedby
Sen.McCain,yeteventsonthegroundhadpersuadedhimofitsnecessity.
TheadventoftheSyrianrefugeecrisisaswellasthearrivalofRussianforcesintheatersharplyacceleratedthegrowthofpublicsupportforano-flyzone.The
dayafterRussianbombsbegantofallinSyria,formerSecretaryofStateHillaryRodhamClintonsaid,Ipersonallywouldbeadvocatingnowforano-flyzoneand
humanitariancorridorstotrytostopthecarnageonthegroundandfromtheair.Clintonssupportfollowedendorsementsofano-flyzonebyRepublican
candidates,formerFloridaGov.JebBushandFloridaSen.MarcoRubio.
InOctober,severalotherGOPcandidatesannouncedtheirsupportforano-flyzone,withDonaldTrumpthemostnotableopponentoftheidea.Clintons
opponents,Sen.BernieSanders(I-VT)andformerMarylandGov.MartinOMalleybothopposetheideaaswell.
Nationalsecurityexpertshavealsojoinedthedebate.FormerSecretaryofDefenseRobertGatesandSecretaryofStateCondoleezzaRicewrote,No-flyzonesand
safeharborsforpopulationsarenothalf-bakedideas.Theyworkedbefore(protectingtheKurdsfor12yearsunderSaddamHusseinsreignofterror)and
warrantseriousconsideration.Wewillcontinuetohaverefugeesuntilpeoplearesafe.Inshort,wemustcreateabettermilitarybalanceofpowerontheground
ifwearetoseekapoliticalsolutionacceptabletousandtoourallies.
GatesandRicewererespondingdirectlytocommentsbyPresidentObama,whodismissedproposalsforano-flyzonebysaying,whenIhearpeopleofferingup
half-bakedideasasiftheyaresolutions,ortryingtodownplaythechallengesinvolvedinthissituationwhatIdliketoseepeopleaskis,specifically,precisely,
whatexactlywouldyoudo,andhowwouldyoufundit,andhowwouldyousustainit?Andtypically,whatyougetisabunchofmumbojumbo.
PresidentObamasownadvisers,includingSecretaryofStateJohnKerry,havenotfoundhisdismissaltobepersuasive,however.TheNewYork
TimesreportedonFriday,TheObamaadministrationislockedinasharpnewdebateoverwhethertodeployAmericanmilitaryforcestoestablishno-flyzones
andsafehavensinSyriatoprotectcivilianscaughtinitsgrindingcivilwar.AmongtheoptionsreportedlybeingconsideredareareasalongSyriasborderwith
TurkeyandJordanthatcouldeitherbeexclusivelyforhumanitarianrelief,orsanctuaryforSyrianoppositionforcesalliedwithAmericans.
Seniormilitaryexpertshaveexpressedtheirbeliefthatano-flyzoneiseminentlypractical.InSenatetestimonyonSeptember22,GeneralDavidPetraeusmade
anemphaticcaseforenclavesinSyriaprotectedbycoalitionairpower,whereamoderateSunniforcecouldbesupportedandwhereadditionalforcescouldbe
trained,InternallyDisplacedPersonscouldfindrefuge,andtheSyrianoppositioncouldorganize.ThecentralprobleminSyria,Petraeussaid,isthatSunni
ArabswillnotbewillingpartnersagainsttheIslamicStateunlesswecommittoprotectthemandthebroaderSyrianpopulationagainstallenemies,notjustISIS.
OnOctober8,retiredArmyGeneralandformerViceChiefofStaffJackKeanetoldtheSenateArmedServicesCommitteethatPutinhasbegunaproxywarwith
theU.S.whenRussiancombataircraftstruck,continuously,moderaterebelforcestrainedbytheCIA.Inresponse,GeneralKeanerecommendedU.S.craterthe
AlAssadrunway[whichisbeingusedbyRussiatostriketargetsinSyria],establishfreezonesthataresanctuariesforrefugees,[and]strikeAssadshelicopter
fleetthatisbarrelbombing.
Meanwhile,SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonreiteratedhersupportduringthefirstDemocraticprimarydebate,saying,Wehavetostandupto[Putins]bullying,
andspecificallyinSyria,itisimportanttoprovidesafezonessothatpeoplearenotgoingtohavetobefloodingoutofSyriaattheratetheyare.And,Ithinkit's
importanttoothattheUnitedStatesmakeitverycleartoPutinthatit'snotacceptableforhimtobeinSyriacreatingmorechaos,bombingpeopleonbehalfof
Assad,andwecan'tdothatifwedon'ttakemoreofaleadershipposition.
TheChallengesofImposingaNo-FlyZone
Whenconfrontedwithcallsforano-flyzone,theadministrationhasreliedonPentagonleaderstoquestionthepracticalityandcostoftheidea.Initsreporton
divisionswiththeadministration,theNewYorkTimesdescribedhowSecretaryofDefenseAshtonCarterpresentedsoberingestimatesoftheextensivemilitary
resourcesrequiredtoenforcesuchzones,duringarecentNationalSecurityCouncilmeeting,leavingmanyatthetabledubiousaboutthewisdomoftaking
action.
SecretaryCartersobjectionsechosimilarconcernsfromtheformerChairmanoftheJointChiefsofStaff,GeneralMartinDempsey.InJuly2013,
Dempseywarnedthatestablishingano-flyzonewouldrequirehundredsofgroundandsea-basedaircraft,intelligenceandelectronicwarfaresupport,and
enablersforrefuelingandcommunications.Estimatedcostsare$500millioninitially,averagingasmuchasabilliondollarspermonthoverthecourseofayear.
Atthesametime,anindependentanalysisbyChristopherHarmeroftheInstitutefortheStudyofWarfoundthatAmericanairandnavalforcescouldimposea
no-flyzonebydestroyingtherunwaysatSyrianAirForcebases.HarmerconcludedthatthismissioncouldbeaccomplishedatverylowcostwithoutU.S.
aircraftevenenteringSyrianairspace,sinceU.S.forceshaveweaponswithsufficientrangetostrikefromadistance.
Unquestionably,thepresenceofRussianforceswillcomplicateanyefforttoimposeano-flyzone,yetarangeofoptionsremainavailabletotheadministration,
noneofwhichinvolveadirectconfrontationwithRussia.Byplacinganti-aircraftweaponsjustacrossthebordersthatSyriashareswithJordanandTurkey,the
U.S.couldcrediblythreatentoshootdownSyrianaircraftthatflyoverrebel-heldterritorynearthoseborders.SinceRussianaircraftareonlyflyingoutofasingle
baseneartheSyriancoast,theU.S.couldalsopursueHarmers2013proposalfordestroyingSyrianmilitaryrunways.
DiplomaticLeverage
Successatthenegotiatingtabledependsonestablishingfavorablepositionsontheground.OnFriday,foreignministersfrom20nationsgatheredinViennato
discussthefutureofSyria.AheadofthemeetinginVienna,theObamaadministrationhadalreadybeguntomakeconcessions.OnceinsistentthatBasharal-
AssadmuststepdowninordertofacilitateapeacefultransitioninSyria,theadministrationnowsaysthatAssadmayremaininpowerseveralmonthslonger.
ItisparticularlytroublingthattheseU.S.concessionshavefollowedRussiasinterventionandIransdeploymentofcombatforcestoSyria.Toreversethat
dynamic,theU.S.oughttoincreaseitsownleveragebyestablishingano-flyzone,whosehumanitarianbenefitsshouldbecomplementedbyaseriouseffortto
trainandequipSyrianoppositionforcesinareasnolongeraccessibletoAssadsairforce.
ThecivilwarinSyriademonstratesthecostofAmericanpassivity.ThewarhasenabledISIStothrivewhileenablingRussiatoreturntotheMiddleEastaftera40
yearabsence.ThelongerPresidentObamawaitstotakedecisiveaction,theworsethesituationwillget.
AbouttheForeignPolicyInitiative
FPIisanon-profit,non-partisan,tax-exemptorganizationunderSection501(c)(3)oftheU.S.InternalRevenueCode.FPIseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreign
policycommittedtorobustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmerica'sglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Theorganizationwasfoundedin2009andisledbyExecutiveDirectorChristopherGriffin.FPIsBoard
ofDirectorsconsistsofEricEdelman,RobertKagan,WilliamKristol,andDanSenor.Visitourwebsiteatwww.foreignpolicyi.orgformoreinformation.
IfyousupportFPI'smission,pleaseconsidermakingatax-deductibledonationtoday.
TheForeignPolicyInitiative Telephone:(202)296-3322
11DupontCircle,NWSuite325 E-mail:info@foreignpolicyi.org
Washington,D.C.20036 VisitOurWebsite
Tounsubscribe,clickhere DonatetoFPI
Senttime: 10/23/201512:13:23PM
Subject: Re:JebtoMeetBush41and43asCampaignStruggles-yougoing?
Quitethearrayofemoticons.
Date:Friday,October23,20153:04PM
Subject:Re:JebtoMeetBush41and43asCampaignStrugglesyougoing?
OnFri,Oct23,2015at2:53PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
I'mgoingwithRubio,thoughnotofficialyet.
Subject:JebtoMeetBush41and43asCampaignStrugglesyougoing?
http://www.breitbart.com/biggovernment/2015/10/23/emergencyroyalfamilymeetingjebtomeetwithformer
presidentsbush41bush43inhoustonascampaignstruggles/
EMERGENCYROYALFAMILYMEETING:JEBTOMEETWITH
FORMERPRESIDENTSBUSH41,BUSH43INHOUSTONAS
CAMPAIGNSTRUGGLES
AnemergencyBushfamilymeetingisscheduledforthisweekendinHouston,Texas,asformerFloridaGov.JebBushs2016
presidentialcampaignfallsapart.
InHouston,formerPresidentsGeorgeW.BushandGeorgeH.W.BushandformerFirstLadyBarbaraBushwillhuddle
withthethirdBushfamilymemberseekingtoascendtothepresidency,Jeb.
ThemeetingswillalsoincludeseveralcampaignfundraiserswithtophighdollarTexasdonors,asthetwoformerpresidents
seektojumpstartastalledJebcampaign.
AsJebBushheadstoTexasonSundaytorallytopfundraisersalongwithhisfatherandbrother,formerpresidentsGeorge
H.W.BushandGeorgeW.Bush,thefamilysvauntedfinancialnetworkismostlydisengagedandsplinteredandhis
campaignstockisfalling,theWallStreetJournalreports.
ThereinHoustonwhereJebgrewup,theWallStreetJournalnoteshewillrallyhisbiggestbackers.
About170donorswhohaveeachraisedatleast$50,000areexpectedtoattendsocialgatheringsandstrategybriefings
overtwodays,theWSJsRebeccaBallhausandChristopherStewartwrote.Thosewhohaveraisedatleast$175,000will
havethemostaccesstotheBushfamily,includingareceptionwithformerPresidentGeorgeH.W.BushandformerFirst
LadyBarbaraBush.
TheemergencyBushmeetingscomeashesstrugglinginmostpollsafterlongtimeGOPfrontrunnerDonaldTrumpwho
hasremainedatthetopofallpollsfor100days,butishimselfexperiencingabitofaslipinIowabehindfellowoutsiderDr.
BenCarsonhassuccessfullytormentedhiscampaignwithlabelslikelowenergyandattackingBushssupportforopen
bordersimmigrationandamnestyforillegalaliens.
Whatsmore,BushsfreefallingcampaignhasorderedwhatBloombergNewsdescribesasacrosstheboardpaycutsfor
allofitsstaff.Suchamoveisviewedbymanyinpoliticsasanactofdesperationandasignofimpendingdoomfora
campaign,asitisproofpositivethattheefforthasfailedtoraiseenoughmoneyforitspreviouslybudgetedprojectionsfor
operationsizeallwhilefailingtoreachpoliticalgoals.
Thecampaignisremovingsomeseniorstafffromthepayroll,partingwayswithsomeconsultants,anddownsizingits
Miamiheadquarterstosavemorethan$1millionpermonthandcutpayrollby40percentthisweek,accordingtoBush
campaignofficialswhorequestedanonymitytospeakaboutinternalchanges,BloombergsMarkHalperinandMichael
Benderreported:
Thecampaignisalsocuttingback45percentofitsbudget,exceptfordollarsearmarkedforTVadvertising
andspendingforvotercontacts,suchasphonecallsandmailers.Someseniorlevelstaffandconsultantswill
continuetoworkwiththecampaignonavolunteerbasis,whileotherjuniorlevelconsultants,primarilyin
financebutincludingotherareas,willbeletgo,theofficialssaid.Theofficialsdeclinedtosaywhowouldbe
removedfromthepayrollorprovideanexactdollarfigureforthesavings.
WhatsperhapsmostshockingisanopenadmissionbytheBushcampaigninatalkingpointsdocumentprovidedto
BloombergthattheyhavebeenblindsidedbytheriseofTrump.Itsanincredibleadmissionofignoranceinthe2016race
thatthepoliticalconsultantsnowindangerofextinctionontheBushcampaignaremaking.
Itsnotsecretthatthecontoursofthisracehavechangedfromwhatwasanticipatedatthestart,thetalkingpoints
documentfromtheBushcampaignreads,beforereferencingTrumpwithoutnaminghim.Wewouldbelessthan
forthcomingifwesaidwepredictedinJunethatarealitytelevisionstarsupportingCanadianstylesinglepayerhealthcare
andpartialbirthabortionwouldbeleadingtheGOPprimary.
Senttime: 10/23/201512:38:57PM
Well,she'sanidiot.
http://twitter.com/SlaughterAM/status/657632611041460224
OnOct23,2015,at3:13PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
Quitethearrayofemoticons.
OnFri,Oct23,2015at2:53PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:
http://www.breitbart.com/biggovernment/2015/10/23/emergencyroyalfamilymeetingjebtomeetwith
formerpresidentsbush41bush43inhoustonascampaignstruggles/
EMERGENCYROYALFAMILYMEETING:JEBTOMEET
WITHFORMERPRESIDENTSBUSH41,BUSH43IN
HOUSTONASCAMPAIGNSTRUGGLES
<BushMenAP640x480.jpg>
AnemergencyBushfamilymeetingisscheduledforthisweekendinHouston,Texas,asformerFloridaGov.
JebBushs2016presidentialcampaignfallsapart.
InHouston,formerPresidentsGeorgeW.BushandGeorgeH.W.BushandformerFirstLadyBarbaraBush
willhuddlewiththethirdBushfamilymemberseekingtoascendtothepresidency,Jeb.
ThemeetingswillalsoincludeseveralcampaignfundraiserswithtophighdollarTexasdonors,asthetwo
formerpresidentsseektojumpstartastalledJebcampaign.
AsJebBushheadstoTexasonSundaytorallytopfundraisersalongwithhisfatherandbrother,former
presidentsGeorgeH.W.BushandGeorgeW.Bush,thefamilysvauntedfinancialnetworkismostly
disengagedandsplinteredandhiscampaignstockisfalling,theWallStreetJournalreports.
About170donorswhohaveeachraisedatleast$50,000areexpectedtoattendsocialgatheringsand
strategybriefingsovertwodays,theWSJsRebeccaBallhausandChristopherStewartwrote.Thosewho
haveraisedatleast$175,000willhavethemostaccesstotheBushfamily,includingareceptionwithformer
PresidentGeorgeH.W.BushandformerFirstLadyBarbaraBush.
TheemergencyBushmeetingscomeashesstrugglinginmostpollsafterlongtimeGOPfrontrunnerDonald
Trumpwhohasremainedatthetopofallpollsfor100days,butishimselfexperiencingabitofaslipinIowa
behindfellowoutsiderDr.BenCarsonhassuccessfullytormentedhiscampaignwithlabelslikelowenergy
andattackingBushssupportforopenbordersimmigrationandamnestyforillegalaliens.
Whatsmore,BushsfreefallingcampaignhasorderedwhatBloombergNewsdescribesasacrosstheboard
paycutsforallofitsstaff.Suchamoveisviewedbymanyinpoliticsasanactofdesperationandasignof
impendingdoomforacampaign,asitisproofpositivethattheefforthasfailedtoraiseenoughmoneyforits
previouslybudgetedprojectionsforoperationsizeallwhilefailingtoreachpoliticalgoals.
Thecampaignisremovingsomeseniorstafffromthepayroll,partingwayswithsomeconsultants,and
downsizingitsMiamiheadquarterstosavemorethan$1millionpermonthandcutpayrollby40percentthis
week,accordingtoBushcampaignofficialswhorequestedanonymitytospeakaboutinternalchanges,
BloombergsMarkHalperinandMichaelBenderreported:
Thecampaignisalsocuttingback45percentofitsbudget,exceptfordollarsearmarkedforTV
advertisingandspendingforvotercontacts,suchasphonecallsandmailers.Someseniorlevel
staffandconsultantswillcontinuetoworkwiththecampaignonavolunteerbasis,whileother
juniorlevelconsultants,primarilyinfinancebutincludingotherareas,willbeletgo,theofficials
said.Theofficialsdeclinedtosaywhowouldberemovedfromthepayrollorprovideanexact
dollarfigureforthesavings.
WhatsperhapsmostshockingisanopenadmissionbytheBushcampaigninatalkingpointsdocument
providedtoBloombergthattheyhavebeenblindsidedbytheriseofTrump.Itsanincredibleadmissionof
ignoranceinthe2016racethatthepoliticalconsultantsnowindangerofextinctionontheBushcampaign
aremaking.
Itsnotsecretthatthecontoursofthisracehavechangedfromwhatwasanticipatedatthestart,the
talkingpointsdocumentfromtheBushcampaignreads,beforereferencingTrumpwithoutnaminghim.We
wouldbelessthanforthcomingifwesaidwepredictedinJunethatarealitytelevisionstarsupporting
CanadianstylesinglepayerhealthcareandpartialbirthabortionwouldbeleadingtheGOPprimary.
<Bush-Men-AP-640x480.jpg>
Senttime: 10/30/201512:30:26PM
FW:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&FORTHONTHEISSUE:"RU
Subject:
&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"(quirkybutinteresting...
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,October30,201511:00AM
Subject:Fwd:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&FORTHON
THEISSUE:"RU&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"(quirkybutinteresting
...
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Oct30,2015at1:54PM
Subject:Fwd:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&
FORTHONTHEISSUE:"RU&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"
(quirkybutinteresting(acounter)IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
Date:Fri,Oct30,2015at10:44AM
Subject:U.S.:Russianolongersuperpower
To:1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,1WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,
wderzko@pathcom.com
U.S.:Russianolongersuperpower
30.10.2015|12:30
http://www.unian.info/world/1168842-us-russia-no-longer-superpower.html\
Russiaisnolongerasuperpowerasitsdeterioratingeconomyisranked"somewherebehindSpain,"andMoscow'sinfluenceis
limitedcomparedtotheerstwhileSovietUnion,WhiteHousePressSecretaryJoshEarnesttoldreportersonThursday,
accordingtoNDTV.
REUTERS
"Russiaisnolongerasuperpower.ObservedinthelastcoupleofweeksthattheconditionofRussia'seconomyisweakandfurther
deteriorating,"Earnestsaid,thereportreads.
"Theyarenowthe15th-largesteconomyintheworld,andtheyranksomewherebehindSpain,"hesaid.
EarnestsaidRussiadoesnothavethekindofinfluencethattheSovietUniononcedidanditdoesnothavethekindofeconomicpower
thattheSovietUniononcewasabletoflex.
"Theireconomyisgettingworse,andRussiaisisolatedinasignificantway.NotjustfromcountriesinEurope,but,astheygetfurther
engagedinasectarianquagmireinsideofSyria,they'refindingthattheonlyfriendsthattheyhavetheretofightinadifficultfightwith
themisaflounderingSyriangovernmentandtheIranianregime,"hesaid.
http://www.unian.info/world/1168842-us-russia-no-longer-superpower.html
Subject:ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia
wderzko@pathcom.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>
1.ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia

ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia
2015-09-04
ClimatechangeiscontributingtoanincreasingnumberofnaturaldisastersandtechnologicalincidentsinnorthernRussia.
AccordingtotheFOIreportClimatechangeandnaturaldisasters:AchallengeforRussianpolicymakers,publishedin
English,theweakRussianeconomyandascepticalapproachtoclimatechangearehinderingtheimplementationofthe
measuresneeded.
Climatechangeandnaturaldisasters.AchallengeforRussianpolicymakers.
Around60percentofRussiaslandmassiscoveredbypermafrost.Butthatareaisreducinginstepwitharisingglobalmeantemperature.
Theincreasedthawingofpermafrostcreatesseriousproblems,typicallyintheformofnaturaldisastersinvolvingfloodsandforestfiresinthe
summerof2010,forexample,Russiaexperiencedaprolongedperiodofhightemperaturesduringwhichtherewereseventhousandforestfire
outbreaks.Butwhenthepermafrostthaws,thegroundtendstosettlewithadverseconsequencesforhouses,roadsandotherinfrastructure
originallydesignedtobebuiltonpermanentlyfrozenground.Inaddition,northernRussiadependssubstantiallyoniceroadsforheavytransport
duringawinterseasonthatisbecomingsteadilyshorter.
Variousestimateshavebeenmadethatsuggestthatclimatechangeonaveragecausesthelossofthousandsofliveseveryyearandentails
substantialcostsforthestrugglingeconomy,saysRogerRoffey,theFOIscientistwhohaspreparedthereport.
TheincreasesintemperaturearealsocausinglargeareasoftheArctictoremainicefreeduringpartsoftheyear.Accordingtothisreportthis
couldleadtotensionintheareabecause,amongotherthings,Russiawillwishtosafeguarditsnewoilextractionactivitieswhileother
countriesarealsoincreasingtheirpresenceintheareaandmakinggreateruseoftheNortheastPassageforcommercialshipping.Therisein
temperaturecouldalsomeanthatlargeamountsofmethanegaswillbereleasedfrommarshyareas,sohasteningtheprocessofglobal
warming.
AccordingtothereportthebigproblemisthatRussianeitherseemstohavethewill,ortoprioritisethenecessaryresources,todealwiththe
changesthataretakingplace.
Amongotherthingsthereseemstobeageneralperceptionthatawarmerclimatewillbeadvantageous,forexampleinmakingnewareas
availableforcropcultivation.Butresearchshowsthat,onthecontrary,prolongeddryperiodsinsouthernRussiaarehavingtheeffectofreducing
theleveloffoodproduction.Wealsoseethatwhentherearefloodingeventsthatarenotproperlydealtwith,PresidentPutintendstomakean
appearanceandcastigatesomelocalleadersinsteadofensuringthatthestaterecognisesitsresponsibilityfordevisingandfundinga
sustainablesolution,saysRogerRoffey.
ThereportnotesthatthisisnothingnewforRussiasscientificcommunity.ButwhentheRussianstatedecidesinsteadtoinvestinareassuch
asdefence,criticalvoicesareunderstandablyraisedinprotest.
Whentheauthoritiesfailtogiveanyprioritytoclimateandenvironmentalissues,thoseworkinginthesefieldsarerenderedrelatively
powerless.Thescientificcommunityisofcoursedependentonfundingfromtheauthoritiessotheyhavetobecarefulintheircriticismeven
thoughtheydopublishreportsthatdescribethesituationasitis,saysRogerRoffey.
ReadmoreaboutTheprojectonRussianForeign,DefenceandSecurityPolicy(RUFS)
Subject:sSiberiaforestsburnPutindismissesclimatechange>RussianMediaTakeClimateCueFromSkeptical
Putin
wderzko@pathcom.com
RussianMediaTakeClimateCueFromSkepticalPutin
ByREUTERSOCT.29,2015,7:54A.M.E.D.T.
MOSCOWWildfirescrackledacrossSiberiathissummer,turningskiesochreandsendingupenoughsmokefrom
burningpinestoblotoutsatelliteviewsofthe400-mile-longLakeBaikal.
Tomanyclimatescientists,theworseningfiresareaconsequenceofSiberiagettinghotter,thecarbonunleashedfromitsburning
forestsandtundraonlyaddingtoman-madefossilfuelemissions.Siberia'swildfireseasonhaslengthenedinrecentyearsandthe
2015blazeswereamongthebiggestyet,cakingthelake,the"PearlofSiberia",inashandscorchingthesurroundingpermafrost.
ButtheRussianpublicheardlittlementionofclimatechange,becausemediacoverageacrossstate-controlledtelevisionstations
andprintmediaallbutignoredit.OnnationalTV,thevillainswerelocalswhoroutinelybutcarelesslyburnofftallgrassesevery
year,andthesometimesincompetentcrewsstrugglingtoputthefiresout.
WhileWesternmediahaveexaminedtheroleofrisingtemperaturesanddroughtinthisyear'srecordwildfiresinNorthAmerica,
Russianmediacontinuetopaylittleattentiontoanissuethatanimatessomuchoftheworld.
Theindifferencereflectswidespreadpublicdoubtthathumanactivitiesplayasignificantroleinglobalwarming,atonesetby
PresidentVladimirPutin,whohasofferedonlyvagueandmodestpledgesofemissionscutsaheadofDecember'sU.N.climate
summitinParis.
Russia'sofficialviewappearstohavechangedlittlesince2003,whenPutintoldaninternationalclimateconferencethatwarmer
temperatureswouldmeanRussians"spendlessonfurcoats"while"agriculturalspecialistssayourgrainproductionwillincrease,
andthankGodforthat".
Thepresidentbelievesthat"thereisnoglobalwarming,thatthisisafraudtorestraintheindustrialdevelopmentofseveralcountries
includingRussia,"saysStanislavBelkovsky,apoliticalanalystandcriticofPutin."Thatiswhythissubjectisnottopicalforthe
majorityoftheRussianmassmediaandsocietyingeneral."
AndwithRussianmediafocusedontheeconomicsqueezeathomeandeventsinUkraineandSyriaabroad,theabsenceofa
robustmediaconversationonclimatechangemeanshisscepticismgoeslargelyunchallenged.
"Itisdifficulttospendeditorialresourcesonthingsthatarenowalowpriorityinthemidstoftheeconomiccrisis,"saysGalina
Timchenko,formereditor-in-chiefofthesuccessfulnewssiteLenta.ru.TimchenkonowrunsMeduza,apopularsitethatcovers
Russiannewsbutdevoteslittlespacetoclimateissues.
"Unfortunatelyclimatechangeisnotveryinterestingtothepublic,"shesays.
"EXTENSIVEWORK"
Putin'sscepticismdatesfromtheearly2000s,whenhisstaff"didvery,veryextensiveworktryingtounderstandallsidesofthe
climatedebate",saidAndreyIllarionov,Putin'ssenioreconomicadviseratthetimeandnowaseniorfellowattheCatoInstitutein
Washington.
"Wefoundthat,whileclimatechangedoesexist,itiscyclical,andtheanthropogenicroleisverylimited,"hesaid."Itbecameclear
thattheclimateisacomplicatedsystemandthat,sofar,theevidencepresentedfortheneedto'fight'globalwarmingwasrather
unfounded."
Thatopinionendures.DuringatriptotheArcticin2010,Putinacknowledgedthat"theclimateischanging",butrestatedhisdoubt
thathumanactivitywasthecause.
Histripwastoinspecttheretreatofthepolaricecap,somethingthatpromisestomaketheArcticoceanandnorthernSiberia
moreaccessibletoexplorationandproductionoftheoilthatRussia,theworld'sleadingproducer,dependsonforexportearnings.
MariannaPoberezhskaya,authoroftheacademicwork"CommunicatingClimateChangeinRussia",characterizedmedia
coverageinRussiaas"climatesilence",brokenonlybytheairingofofficialdoubtsaboutanyhumanimpactonglobal
temperatures.
"RussianmassmediarepeatthesamemistakethatWesternjournalistsusedtomake:thefalsebalance,wheretheideaofthe
humaneffectonclimatechangeispresentedalongwithskeptics'pointofview,"shesaid.
Russianschoolteachingalsoappearstolagbehindtherapidlyexpandingscienceonclimatechange.
Randomlysampledgeographytextbooksmakenomentionofhumanimpactontheclimate,andonecollege-leveltextstatesthat
climatechangesarecausedmainlybysolaractivity,themovementoftheplanet'scrustandvolcanoes.
"Iseewhattheyhaveabroadontheproblemofclimatechange,"saysAsyaKorolkova,15,whostudieshighschoolbiologyin
Moscow."Peopletheretalkaboutitalotyoucanfeelit'saseriousproblem.Wedon'thavethathere."
DECREASEISANINCREASE
EnvironmentalistssaythatattitudeisalsoreflectedinRussia'spledgeforDecember'sglobalsummit,onethatreceivedlittlemedia
coverageathome.
Insuggestingareductioninitsemissionsto"70to75percent"of1990levelsby2030,Moscowisactuallyproposinganincrease
from2012levels.Russianemissionsarecurrentlyfarbelowthelevelsproducedbyobsolescentex-Sovietsmokestackindustriesin
1990.
Eventhatofferishedged.RussiahassaidreachingthetargetwillrequiregenerousaccountingfortheroleRussia'sforestsplayin
removingcarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere.
SomeobserversdoseesignsofaslightsofteninginMoscow'spositioninthefaceofaseriesofweatherdisasters,fromdrought
andsearingsummerfiresin2010toragingfloodsinSochiontheBlackSealastyear.
NaturalresourcesministerSergeiDonskoyhassaidextremeweathercouldcutRussia'seconomicoutputby1-2percentevery
yearforthenext15years,addingthat"thishastobetakenintoaccountwhendeterminingthepolicyandmeasuresinthefieldof
adaptationtoclimatechange".
ThebusinessnewspaperKommersant,ownedbywealthybusinessmanAlisherUsmanov,is,likesomeotherRussianmedia,taking
someinterestinthoseeconomicconsequences,thoughitalsodidnotdiscussthepossibilitythatclimatechangemighthave
contributedtotheSiberianfires.
"Iwriteaboutwhatneedstobedonetochangeproductionandconsumptionpractices-thehumaneffectontheclimateisagiven
forus,"saidKommersantjournalistAlexeyShapovalov.
Butforallthat,thereisnosignofpublicpressureonauthoritiestodomore,letaloneofPutinrelaxingRussia'shardlineaheadof
theParistalks.
"Thissubjecthasfailedtobecomeapriority,"saysKonstantinSimonov,thefounderofanon-governmentaloilandgasresearch
fundwhooftenappearsonRussianmedia.
"Russia'sattitudewillmostlikelybesomethinglikethis:Guys,youputeconomicpressureonus,introducedsanctions.Doyou
expectustobeholierthanthePopeabouttheissueyou'repushingthroughandtakealoadofresponsibilities?"
Theanswer,hesays,willbe:"No."
Subject:TheUS-RussiagaspipelinewarinSyriacoulddestabilisePutin>Facedwithoverlappingclimate,economic,
foodandenergycrises,Russiaistrulyonthebrink...It'stheEnergyStu!*d
wderzko@pathcom.com
TheUS-RussiagaspipelinewarinSyriacoulddestabilise
Putin
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/us-russia-gas-pipeline-war-syria-could-destabilise-putin-103505758
NafeezAhmed
Friday30October201512:23UTC
Militarysolutionsarenottheanswertotheperfectstormofclimate,energy,food,economicandgeopoliticalcrisesfacingRussia
Forthelastfewyears,theSaudikingdomsinsistenceonpumpingoilathighcapacityhasdramaticallydepressedoilprices.Theresult
hasunderminedSaudismajoroilrivalsinOPEClikeIranandVenezuela.
IthasalsohitRussia,hard.
RatingagencyStandard&PoorforecaststhatRussiasbudgetdeficitissettoswellto4.4percentofGDPthisyear.Russiasown
financeministryconcedesthatifexpenditurescontinueatthisrate,withinsixteenmonthsbyaroundtheendofnextyearitsoil
reservefundswillbeexhausted.
Meanwhile,overthelastyearrealincomeshavedroppedby9.8percent,andfoodpriceshavespikedby17percent,heighteningtherisk
ofcivilunrest.
Systemfailure
Rumblingalongbeneaththesurfaceofsuchfinancialwoesaredeepersystemicissues.
AreportfromtheSwedishDefenceResearchAgencynotesthatprolongeddryperiodsinsouthernRussiaarehavingthe
effectofreducingtheleveloffoodproduction.
MostofRussiaswheatimportscomefromKazakhstan,whereclimatechangeisexpectedtoexacerbatedroughts.These
impactswouldmakefarmingharderandfoodmoreexpensive,observeDr.MarinaSharminaandDr.ChristopherJonesofthe
TyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch.
Russiasloomingenergycrisisistheotherelephantintheroom.In2013,HSBCforecastedthatRussiawouldhitpeakoilbetween2018
and2019,experiencingabriefplateaubeforedecliningby30percentfrom2020to2025.
Thatyear,FitchRatingscametoprettymuchthesameconclusion.Andlastyear,LeonidFedun,vice-presidentofRussiassecondlargest
oilproducer,Lukoil,predictedthattheproductioncouldpeakearlierduetofallingoilpricesandUS-EUsanctions.
Facedwithoverlappingeconomic,foodandenergycrises,Russiaiswellandtrulyonthebrink.
Warisaracket
RussiasinterventioninSyriaisVladimirPutinsgeopoliticaltrumpcard,headingofftheimminentdefeatofSyrianpresidentBashiral-
AssadsregimeundermultipleWestern-backedrebelforces.
HisgoalwasexplainedthisOctoberinForeignAffairs,thedistinguishedjournalofWashingtonDCsCouncilonForeignRelations.
MostoftheforeignbelligerentsinthewarinSyriaaregas-exportingcountrieswithinterestsinoneofthetwocompeting
pipelineprojectsthatseektocrossSyrianterritorytodelivereitherQatariorIraniangastoEurope,wroteProfessorMitchell
OrensteinoftheDavisCenterforRussianandEurasianStudiesatHarvardUniversity.
IhadreportedonthecompetinggaspipelineplansfortheGuardianin2013.Twoyearslater,ForeignAffairsisfinallycatchingup.
AsOrensteinexplained,in2009,QatarproposedtobuildapipelinetosenditsgasnorthwestviaSaudiArabia,Jordan,andSyriato
TurkeyHowever,SyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadrefusedtosigntheplanRussia,whichdidnotwanttoseeitspositioninEuropean
gasmarketsundermined,puthimunderintensepressurenotto.
RussiasGazpromsells80percentofitsgastoEurope.Soin2010,RussiaputitsweightbehindanalternativeIran-Iraq-Syriapipeline
thatwouldpumpIraniangasfromthesamefieldoutviaSyrianportssuchasLatakiaandundertheMediterranean.Theprojectwould
allowMoscowtocontrolgasimportstoEuropefromIran,theCaspianSearegion,andCentralAsia.
Uptothispoint,USpolicytowardAssadhadbeenambivalent.StateDepartmentcablesobtainedbyWikileaksrevealthatUSpolicyhad
waveredbetweenfinancingSyrianoppositiongroupstofacilitateregimechange,andusingthethreatofregimechangetoinduce
behaviourreform.
ObamaspreferenceforthelatterresultedinUSofficials,includingJohnKerry,shamelesslycourtingAssadinthehopesofpryinghim
awayfromIran,openinguptheSyrianeconomytoUSinvestors,andaligningtheregimewithUS-Israeliregionaldesigns.
EvenwhentheArabSpringprotestsresultedinAssadssecurityforcesbrutalisingpeacefulciviliandemonstratorsinthestreets,both
KerryandthenSecretaryofStateHillaryClintoninsistedthathewasareformer-whichhetookasagreenlighttorespondtofurther
protestswithmassacres.
TheScramblefortheMediterranean
TheninJuly,a$10billionIran-Iraq-Syriapipelinedealwasannounced,andapreliminaryagreementdulysigned.
Bylate2011,theUS,UK,FranceandIsraelwererampingupcovertassistancetorebelfactionsinSyriatoelicitthecollapseofAssads
regimefromwithin.
TheUnitedStatessupportstheQataripipelineasawaytobalanceIrananddiversifyEuropesgassuppliesawayfromRussia,
explainedOrensteininForeignAffairs.
RussiamovedquicklytosupportthepartiesinsigningaMemorandumofUnderstanding(MoU)inJuly2012.Bytheendof2013,Russia
hadsignedanoffshoregasdealwithSyriatoexploretheeasternMediterranean,estimatedtocontainatotalofabout122trillioncubicfeet
ofrecoverablenaturalgas.
ThemovewasseenasunhelpfulbytheUS,whichhasworkedwithIsrael,Egypt,Turkey,CyprusandLebanontodevelopanIsraeli-
dominatedregionalgasexportarchitecturecapableofsupplyingeasternMediterraneangastoEurope.
NaturalgasdiscoveriesintheeasternMediterraneanhavetheabilitytoundermineRussiasdominantpositionasanaturalgassupplier
toWesternEurope,wroteSimonHenderson,directoroftheWashingtonInstitutesGulfandEnergyPolicyProgramme.
Attrition
AsRussiasenergycrisisdeepens,Putinsdesperationoverthegasquestioniscompoundedbyfearsoverthegeopoliticalconsequences
ofAssadsdownfall.
InOctoberlastyear,formerdirectorforChinapolicyattheUSDepartmentofDefence,Dr.ChristinaLin,warnedprescientlythattheif
theUS-ledcoalitionsstrategyagainsttheIslamicState(IS)swungtoofartowardtopplingAssad,itcouldcrossaredlinethatcould
triggerRussianmilitaryescalation.
FromtheRussianperspective,replacingAssadwithanIslamistregimewillalsofurtherexportterrorandradicaliseMuslimsin
Chechnya,wroteLin.RussiaalsowantstoprotectitsnavalportinTartus,andhasalreadydemonstratedthroughitsactioninUkraineit
wouldnothesitatetousemilitaryforcetodefenditscoreinterests.
ShenotedthatTurkeyinparticularhasbeenmoreconcernedwithtopplingAssadthanfightingIS.
Thisisnotsurprisinggiventhat,asaseniorWesternofficialfamiliarwithalargecacheofintelligenceobtainedthissummertoldthe
Guardian,directdealingsbetweenTurkishofficialsandrankingISISmemberswasnowundeniable.
ThesameofficialalsoconfirmedthatTurkeyhasbeensupportingotherjihadistgroups,includingAhraral-ShamandJabhatal-Nusra,al-
QaedasaffiliateinSyria.Thedistinctionstheydraw[withotheroppositiongroups]arethinindeed,saidtheofficial.Thereisnodoubt
atallthattheymilitarilycooperatewithboth.
Thathasn'tstoppedtheUSfromrunningitsrebeltrainingandsupplyprogrammethroughTurkey.
IftheUScontinuestoallowTurkeytochangethemissionofdegradingISISintooneofregimechangeinSyria,saidLinexactlyayear
beforeRussiasmilitaryintervention,thiswouldpitthecoalitionagainsttheotherwisecooperativeBeijing-Moscow-TehranaxisonISIS.
ButPutinisseverelydeludedifhethinksmilitarysolutionsaretheanswertotheperfectstormofclimate,energy,food,economicand
geopoliticalcrisesRussiaisfacing.
In1979,asrevealedbythenNationalSecurityAdviserZbigniewBrzezinski,theUShadcovertlysupportedmujahideenactivitysixmonths
beforetheRussiansinvadedAfghanistan.Theidea,hesaid,wastodrawthemintotheAfghantrap,acceleratingSovietcollapse.
Itworked.
Atthisrate,itsgoingtoworkagaininSyria.
-NafeezAhmedPhDisaninvestigativejournalist,internationalsecurityscholarandbestsellingauthorwhotrackswhathecallsthe
'crisisofcivilization.'HeisawinneroftheProjectCensoredAwardforOutstandingInvestigativeJournalismforhisGuardianreporting
ontheintersectionofglobalecological,energyandeconomiccriseswithregionalgeopoliticsandconflicts.HehasalsowrittenforThe
Independent,SydneyMorningHerald,TheAge,TheScotsman,ForeignPolicy,TheAtlantic,Quartz,Prospect,NewStatesman,LeMonde
diplomatique,NewInternationalist.Hisworkontherootcausesandcovertoperationslinkedtointernationalterrorismofficially
contributedtothe9/11Commissionandthe7/7CoronersInquest.
TheviewsexpressedinthisarticlebelongtotheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheeditorialpolicyofMiddleEastEye.
Subject:Putin'sGasAttack>IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
wderzko@pathcom.com
Putin'sGasAttack
IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
ByMitchellA.OrensteinandGeorgeRomer
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2015-10-14/putins-gas-attack
AbouttheAuthor:
MITCHELLA.ORENSTEINisaProfessorofCentralandEastEuropeanpoliticsintheSlavicDepartmentatUniversityof
Pennsylvania.GEORGEROMERisaU.S.NavyveteranandundergraduatestudentattheUniversityofPennsylvania.
RussiasbelligerenceinSyriahasreneweddebatesaboutRussianmotives.JamesNixey,headof
theRussiaandEurasiaProgramatChathamHouse,andXeniaWickett,projectdirectorforthe
UnitedStatesatChathamHouse,probablyputitbestintheirrecentarticle:Why,logically,
wouldacountrybucklingunderthestrainofacrippledeconomyandwhichhasitselfbeenarecent
victimofextremistterror,openupasecondfrontofmilitaryoperationsfarawayfromits
traditionaltheatreofmilitaryengagementintheformerSovietspace?Andwhatelse,otherthan
ulteriormotivestothoseofficiallystated,couldexplainRussiastargetingofSyrian
groupingsotherthanISISstrongholds?
Oneanswerisnaturalgas.Specifically,mostoftheforeignbelligerentsinthewarinSyriaaregas-
exportingcountrieswithinterestsinoneofthetwocompetingpipelineprojectsthatseektocross
SyrianterritorytodelivereitherQatariorIraniangastoEurope.Inshort,asIranemergesfrom
internationalsanctionsanditsmassivegasreservesbecomeavailableforexport,Syriasgaswar
isheatingup.
POWERLINES
In1989,QatarandIranbegantodeveloptheSouthPars/NorthDomefield,whichisburied3,000
metersbelowthefloorofthePersianGulf.With51trillioncubicmetersofgasand50billion
cubicmetersofliquidcondensates,itisthelargestnaturalgasfieldintheworld.Approximately
one-thirdofitsricheslieinIranianwatersandtwo-thirdsinQatariones.
Sincethediscovery,Qatarhasinvestedheavilyinliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)plantsandterminals
thatenableittoshipitsgasaroundtheworldintankers.Yetliquefactionandshippingincrease
totalcostsand,particularlyasgaspriceshaveslipped,Qatarigashasremainedeasilyundercutin
EuropeanmarketsbycheaperpipelinegasfromRussiaandelsewhere.Andso,in2009,Qatar
proposedtobuildapipelinetosenditsgasnorthwestviaSaudiArabia,Jordan,andSyriato
Turkey,aninvestmentofbillionsofdollarsupfrontthatwouldreducetransportationcostsoverthe
longterm.However,SyrianPresidentBasharalAssadrefusedtosigntheplanRussia,whichdid
notwanttoseeitspositioninEuropeangasmarketsundermined,puthimunderintensepressurenot
to.
.
Atthesametime,Iran,sensinganopportunity,andlackingexportinfrastructureforitsownmassive
gasreserves,proposedanalternativeIran-Iraq-SyriapipelinethatwouldpumpIraniangasfrom
thesamefieldoutviaSyrianportssuchasLatakiaandundertheMediterranean.Moscow
apparentlyblessedthisproject,possiblybelievingthatRussiawouldhaveaneasiertimedealing
withIran(unlikeQatar,nothometoaU.S.base)tocontrolgasimportstoEuropefromIran,the
CaspianSearegion,andCentralAsia.TheannouncementoftheIran-Iraq-Syriapipelinedealcame
in2011.ThepartiessignedthedocumentsinJuly2012.Constructionwasslatedtobefinishedin
2016,buttheArabSpringandensuingchaosinSyriainterfered.
ENTERRUSSIA
Sincethestartofthefighting,IranhasprovidedextensivesupporttotheAssadgovernment.By
someaccounts,itismoreorlessrunningtheSyrianarmy,aswellassupplyingitwithweaponsand
noweventroopsfromitsRevolutionaryGuardandQudsforces.Tehranhasnumerousreasonsfor
supportingAssadDamascushasbeenareliableallyandchannelforsendingarmstoHezbollah
andSyriasstatusasapotentialtransitrouteforIransvastnaturalgasreservessurelyfigures
in.
Qatar,meanwhile,beganworkingtoousttheAssadregimebyfundingrebelgroupstothetuneofan
estimated$3billionbetween2011and2013.Itevenoffereda$50,000rewardtodefectorsfrom
theSyrianregimeandtheirfamiliesandhostsabasefromwhichtheCIAhastrainedSyrian
rebels.QatarsrelationswithSyriahadpreviouslybeencordialthatis,untilQatarsAl-Jazeera
playedavitalroleinsupportingtheArabSpringrevoltsandgaveavoicetotheprotestsinSyria.
QataralsosoughttoisolateAssaddiplomaticallybyhandingSyriasseatintheArabLeaguetothe
opposition.Indoingso,QatarendangereditspreviouslycloserelationswithIran.
TheRussianinterventionaddsanewlayer.RussiawouldratherseetheIranIraqSyriapipeline
builtornopipelineatall,sothatitcanbestcontrolgassuppliestoEurope,itsmainmarket.For
Qatar,SyriarepresentsanopportunitytotransportitsgastomarketcheaplyorblockIranfrom
dominatingpipelineexportsfromajointly-ownedfield.
TheUnitedStates,meanwhile,supportstheQataripipelineasawaytobalanceIrananddiversify
EuropesgassuppliesawayfromRussia.
AndTurkey,likewise,believesthattheQataripipelinewouldhelpitdiversifyitsowngassupplies
awayfromRussianenergyandfurtheritsambitionstobeagastransithubbetweenAsiaand
Europe.Russianstatemediahas,inrecentdays,remindedTurkeythatitisunlikelytomanage
withoutRussiangasandthatTurkeysothermajorsupplier,Iran,isalignedwithRussiainSyria.
Inotherwords,anypoliticalsettlementoftheSyriacrisismustalsoreconcilecompetinggas
interests.Onewaytodothiswouldbetoenablebothpipelinestobebuilt,sothatQatariand
Iraniangascanbebroughttomarketcheaply.Thatwouldresolveatleastonedriveroftheconflict.
Infact,itwouldservetheinterestsofallactorsreasonablywell,exceptforRussia.
Indeed,thedualpipelineswouldbeadisasterfortheKremlin.Russiahasavitalinterestin
controllinggassuppliestoEurope,whereGazpromsells80percentofitsgas.TheEuropeanUnion
hassucceededindiversifyingsuppliesinrecentyears(inpartthroughLNGimports)andseeksto
developadditionalpipelinesfromCentralAsiaandtheMiddleEasttofurtherreduceitsreliance
onRussiangas.NewpipelinesfromQatarandIrancouldtakeawaymarketsharefromRussia,but
moreimportantlyreducepricesbelowwhattheRussianstatebudgetneedstosurvive.
Russiahasshownawillingnesstogotowaroversuchissuesbefore.ItfoughtthewarinGeorgia
tofrustrateWesternplanstoexportgasfromtheCaspianSearegiontotheWestviaAzerbaijanand
GeorgiatoTurkey.
ItwenttowarinUkraineinordertocontrolavitaltransitstatebetweenRussiaandEurope.
AnditisreasonabletoexpectthatRussiawillgodownfightingtopreventaQataripipelinefrom
crossingSyriaonitswaytoEuropeandtomakeIranianexportsreliantonRussiansupport.Italso
explainswhyRussiahaschosentotargetQatari-andSaudi-fundedrebelgroupsinSyriainits
bombingcampaign,andwhyRussiasinvolvementhasonlybolsteredtheGulfStatesresolve.
Whensuchenergyconsiderationsaretakenintoaccount,itseemsclearthatsurrenderingSyriato
IranianandRussianinterests,assomehaverecommendedinrecentweeks,wouldbeadisaster.
ButnegotiatingasolutionwillbeverydifficultwithRussiawhenU.S.andRussianinterestsareso
sharplyopposed.TheUnitedStatesmuststandfirmandusethecrisistobegintomendrelations
withTurkey,SaudiArabia,andothertraditionalalliesintheMiddleEast,withwhichtieshave
beenfrayedbythetumultoftheArabSpring.Turkey,atthecrossroadsofAsiaandEurope,stands
thebestchanceofplayinganhonestbrokerroleingastransitandensuring,withU.S.support,that
allgassuppliersintheMiddleEasthavetheabilitytofreelyexportandtransporttheirvaluable
commodity.
Senttime: 10/30/201512:30:26PM
FW:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&FORTHONTHEISSUE:"RU
Subject:
&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"(quirkybutinteresting...
Sent:Friday,October30,201511:00AM
Subject:Fwd:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&FORTHON
THEISSUE:"RU&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"(quirkybutinteresting
...
Subject:Fwd:US:Russianolongersuperpower[OB-AdWishfulThinking?...OR....SomethingElse?]....ABITOFBACK&
FORTHONTHEISSUE:"RU&ClimateChange"SiberianForestsBurningasVladisinDenial"RU-USPipelineWarinSyria"
(quirkybutinteresting(acounter)IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
Subject:U.S.:Russianolongersuperpower
wderzko@pathcom.com
U.S.:Russianolongersuperpower
30.10.2015|12:30
http://www.unian.info/world/1168842-us-russia-no-longer-superpower.html\
Russiaisnolongerasuperpowerasitsdeterioratingeconomyisranked"somewherebehindSpain,"andMoscow'sinfluenceis
limitedcomparedtotheerstwhileSovietUnion,WhiteHousePressSecretaryJoshEarnesttoldreportersonThursday,
accordingtoNDTV.
REUTERS
"Russiaisnolongerasuperpower.ObservedinthelastcoupleofweeksthattheconditionofRussia'seconomyisweakandfurther
deteriorating,"Earnestsaid,thereportreads.
"Theyarenowthe15th-largesteconomyintheworld,andtheyranksomewherebehindSpain,"hesaid.
EarnestsaidRussiadoesnothavethekindofinfluencethattheSovietUniononcedidanditdoesnothavethekindofeconomicpower
thattheSovietUniononcewasabletoflex.
"Theireconomyisgettingworse,andRussiaisisolatedinasignificantway.NotjustfromcountriesinEurope,but,astheygetfurther
engagedinasectarianquagmireinsideofSyria,they'refindingthattheonlyfriendsthattheyhavetheretofightinadifficultfightwith
themisaflounderingSyriangovernmentandtheIranianregime,"hesaid.
http://www.unian.info/world/1168842-us-russia-no-longer-superpower.html
Subject:ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia
wderzko@pathcom.com,azglobal<azgre@azgre.ca>
1.ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia

ClimatechangehassevereimpactinRussia
2015-09-04
ClimatechangeiscontributingtoanincreasingnumberofnaturaldisastersandtechnologicalincidentsinnorthernRussia.
AccordingtotheFOIreportClimatechangeandnaturaldisasters:AchallengeforRussianpolicymakers,publishedin
English,theweakRussianeconomyandascepticalapproachtoclimatechangearehinderingtheimplementationofthe
measuresneeded.
Climatechangeandnaturaldisasters.AchallengeforRussianpolicymakers.
Around60percentofRussiaslandmassiscoveredbypermafrost.Butthatareaisreducinginstepwitharisingglobalmeantemperature.
Theincreasedthawingofpermafrostcreatesseriousproblems,typicallyintheformofnaturaldisastersinvolvingfloodsandforestfiresinthe
summerof2010,forexample,Russiaexperiencedaprolongedperiodofhightemperaturesduringwhichtherewereseventhousandforestfire
outbreaks.Butwhenthepermafrostthaws,thegroundtendstosettlewithadverseconsequencesforhouses,roadsandotherinfrastructure
originallydesignedtobebuiltonpermanentlyfrozenground.Inaddition,northernRussiadependssubstantiallyoniceroadsforheavytransport
duringawinterseasonthatisbecomingsteadilyshorter.
Variousestimateshavebeenmadethatsuggestthatclimatechangeonaveragecausesthelossofthousandsofliveseveryyearandentails
substantialcostsforthestrugglingeconomy,saysRogerRoffey,theFOIscientistwhohaspreparedthereport.
TheincreasesintemperaturearealsocausinglargeareasoftheArctictoremainicefreeduringpartsoftheyear.Accordingtothisreportthis
couldleadtotensionintheareabecause,amongotherthings,Russiawillwishtosafeguarditsnewoilextractionactivitieswhileother
countriesarealsoincreasingtheirpresenceintheareaandmakinggreateruseoftheNortheastPassageforcommercialshipping.Therisein
temperaturecouldalsomeanthatlargeamountsofmethanegaswillbereleasedfrommarshyareas,sohasteningtheprocessofglobal
warming.
AccordingtothereportthebigproblemisthatRussianeitherseemstohavethewill,ortoprioritisethenecessaryresources,todealwiththe
changesthataretakingplace.
Amongotherthingsthereseemstobeageneralperceptionthatawarmerclimatewillbeadvantageous,forexampleinmakingnewareas
availableforcropcultivation.Butresearchshowsthat,onthecontrary,prolongeddryperiodsinsouthernRussiaarehavingtheeffectofreducing
theleveloffoodproduction.Wealsoseethatwhentherearefloodingeventsthatarenotproperlydealtwith,PresidentPutintendstomakean
appearanceandcastigatesomelocalleadersinsteadofensuringthatthestaterecognisesitsresponsibilityfordevisingandfundinga
sustainablesolution,saysRogerRoffey.
ThereportnotesthatthisisnothingnewforRussiasscientificcommunity.ButwhentheRussianstatedecidesinsteadtoinvestinareassuch
asdefence,criticalvoicesareunderstandablyraisedinprotest.
Whentheauthoritiesfailtogiveanyprioritytoclimateandenvironmentalissues,thoseworkinginthesefieldsarerenderedrelatively
powerless.Thescientificcommunityisofcoursedependentonfundingfromtheauthoritiessotheyhavetobecarefulintheircriticismeven
thoughtheydopublishreportsthatdescribethesituationasitis,saysRogerRoffey.
ReadmoreaboutTheprojectonRussianForeign,DefenceandSecurityPolicy(RUFS)
Subject:sSiberiaforestsburnPutindismissesclimatechange>RussianMediaTakeClimateCueFromSkeptical
Putin
wderzko@pathcom.com
RussianMediaTakeClimateCueFromSkepticalPutin
ByREUTERSOCT.29,2015,7:54A.M.E.D.T.
MOSCOWWildfirescrackledacrossSiberiathissummer,turningskiesochreandsendingupenoughsmokefrom
burningpinestoblotoutsatelliteviewsofthe400-mile-longLakeBaikal.
Tomanyclimatescientists,theworseningfiresareaconsequenceofSiberiagettinghotter,thecarbonunleashedfromitsburning
forestsandtundraonlyaddingtoman-madefossilfuelemissions.Siberia'swildfireseasonhaslengthenedinrecentyearsandthe
2015blazeswereamongthebiggestyet,cakingthelake,the"PearlofSiberia",inashandscorchingthesurroundingpermafrost.
ButtheRussianpublicheardlittlementionofclimatechange,becausemediacoverageacrossstate-controlledtelevisionstations
andprintmediaallbutignoredit.OnnationalTV,thevillainswerelocalswhoroutinelybutcarelesslyburnofftallgrassesevery
year,andthesometimesincompetentcrewsstrugglingtoputthefiresout.
WhileWesternmediahaveexaminedtheroleofrisingtemperaturesanddroughtinthisyear'srecordwildfiresinNorthAmerica,
Russianmediacontinuetopaylittleattentiontoanissuethatanimatessomuchoftheworld.
Theindifferencereflectswidespreadpublicdoubtthathumanactivitiesplayasignificantroleinglobalwarming,atonesetby
PresidentVladimirPutin,whohasofferedonlyvagueandmodestpledgesofemissionscutsaheadofDecember'sU.N.climate
summitinParis.
Russia'sofficialviewappearstohavechangedlittlesince2003,whenPutintoldaninternationalclimateconferencethatwarmer
temperatureswouldmeanRussians"spendlessonfurcoats"while"agriculturalspecialistssayourgrainproductionwillincrease,
andthankGodforthat".
Thepresidentbelievesthat"thereisnoglobalwarming,thatthisisafraudtorestraintheindustrialdevelopmentofseveralcountries
includingRussia,"saysStanislavBelkovsky,apoliticalanalystandcriticofPutin."Thatiswhythissubjectisnottopicalforthe
majorityoftheRussianmassmediaandsocietyingeneral."
AndwithRussianmediafocusedontheeconomicsqueezeathomeandeventsinUkraineandSyriaabroad,theabsenceofa
robustmediaconversationonclimatechangemeanshisscepticismgoeslargelyunchallenged.
"Itisdifficulttospendeditorialresourcesonthingsthatarenowalowpriorityinthemidstoftheeconomiccrisis,"saysGalina
Timchenko,formereditor-in-chiefofthesuccessfulnewssiteLenta.ru.TimchenkonowrunsMeduza,apopularsitethatcovers
Russiannewsbutdevoteslittlespacetoclimateissues.
"Unfortunatelyclimatechangeisnotveryinterestingtothepublic,"shesays.
"EXTENSIVEWORK"
Putin'sscepticismdatesfromtheearly2000s,whenhisstaff"didvery,veryextensiveworktryingtounderstandallsidesofthe
climatedebate",saidAndreyIllarionov,Putin'ssenioreconomicadviseratthetimeandnowaseniorfellowattheCatoInstitutein
Washington.
"Wefoundthat,whileclimatechangedoesexist,itiscyclical,andtheanthropogenicroleisverylimited,"hesaid."Itbecameclear
thattheclimateisacomplicatedsystemandthat,sofar,theevidencepresentedfortheneedto'fight'globalwarmingwasrather
unfounded."
Thatopinionendures.DuringatriptotheArcticin2010,Putinacknowledgedthat"theclimateischanging",butrestatedhisdoubt
thathumanactivitywasthecause.
Histripwastoinspecttheretreatofthepolaricecap,somethingthatpromisestomaketheArcticoceanandnorthernSiberia
moreaccessibletoexplorationandproductionoftheoilthatRussia,theworld'sleadingproducer,dependsonforexportearnings.
MariannaPoberezhskaya,authoroftheacademicwork"CommunicatingClimateChangeinRussia",characterizedmedia
coverageinRussiaas"climatesilence",brokenonlybytheairingofofficialdoubtsaboutanyhumanimpactonglobal
temperatures.
"RussianmassmediarepeatthesamemistakethatWesternjournalistsusedtomake:thefalsebalance,wheretheideaofthe
humaneffectonclimatechangeispresentedalongwithskeptics'pointofview,"shesaid.
Russianschoolteachingalsoappearstolagbehindtherapidlyexpandingscienceonclimatechange.
Randomlysampledgeographytextbooksmakenomentionofhumanimpactontheclimate,andonecollege-leveltextstatesthat
climatechangesarecausedmainlybysolaractivity,themovementoftheplanet'scrustandvolcanoes.
"Iseewhattheyhaveabroadontheproblemofclimatechange,"saysAsyaKorolkova,15,whostudieshighschoolbiologyin
Moscow."Peopletheretalkaboutitalotyoucanfeelit'saseriousproblem.Wedon'thavethathere."
DECREASEISANINCREASE
EnvironmentalistssaythatattitudeisalsoreflectedinRussia'spledgeforDecember'sglobalsummit,onethatreceivedlittlemedia
coverageathome.
Insuggestingareductioninitsemissionsto"70to75percent"of1990levelsby2030,Moscowisactuallyproposinganincrease
from2012levels.Russianemissionsarecurrentlyfarbelowthelevelsproducedbyobsolescentex-Sovietsmokestackindustriesin
1990.
Eventhatofferishedged.RussiahassaidreachingthetargetwillrequiregenerousaccountingfortheroleRussia'sforestsplayin
removingcarbondioxidefromtheatmosphere.
SomeobserversdoseesignsofaslightsofteninginMoscow'spositioninthefaceofaseriesofweatherdisasters,fromdrought
andsearingsummerfiresin2010toragingfloodsinSochiontheBlackSealastyear.
NaturalresourcesministerSergeiDonskoyhassaidextremeweathercouldcutRussia'seconomicoutputby1-2percentevery
yearforthenext15years,addingthat"thishastobetakenintoaccountwhendeterminingthepolicyandmeasuresinthefieldof
adaptationtoclimatechange".
ThebusinessnewspaperKommersant,ownedbywealthybusinessmanAlisherUsmanov,is,likesomeotherRussianmedia,taking
someinterestinthoseeconomicconsequences,thoughitalsodidnotdiscussthepossibilitythatclimatechangemighthave
contributedtotheSiberianfires.
"Iwriteaboutwhatneedstobedonetochangeproductionandconsumptionpractices-thehumaneffectontheclimateisagiven
forus,"saidKommersantjournalistAlexeyShapovalov.
Butforallthat,thereisnosignofpublicpressureonauthoritiestodomore,letaloneofPutinrelaxingRussia'shardlineaheadof
theParistalks.
"Thissubjecthasfailedtobecomeapriority,"saysKonstantinSimonov,thefounderofanon-governmentaloilandgasresearch
fundwhooftenappearsonRussianmedia.
"Russia'sattitudewillmostlikelybesomethinglikethis:Guys,youputeconomicpressureonus,introducedsanctions.Doyou
expectustobeholierthanthePopeabouttheissueyou'repushingthroughandtakealoadofresponsibilities?"
Theanswer,hesays,willbe:"No."
Subject:TheUS-RussiagaspipelinewarinSyriacoulddestabilisePutin>Facedwithoverlappingclimate,economic,
foodandenergycrises,Russiaistrulyonthebrink...It'stheEnergyStu!*d
wderzko@pathcom.com
TheUS-RussiagaspipelinewarinSyriacoulddestabilise
Putin
http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/us-russia-gas-pipeline-war-syria-could-destabilise-putin-103505758
NafeezAhmed
Friday30October201512:23UTC
Militarysolutionsarenottheanswertotheperfectstormofclimate,energy,food,economicandgeopoliticalcrisesfacingRussia
Forthelastfewyears,theSaudikingdomsinsistenceonpumpingoilathighcapacityhasdramaticallydepressedoilprices.Theresult
hasunderminedSaudismajoroilrivalsinOPEClikeIranandVenezuela.
IthasalsohitRussia,hard.
RatingagencyStandard&PoorforecaststhatRussiasbudgetdeficitissettoswellto4.4percentofGDPthisyear.Russiasown
financeministryconcedesthatifexpenditurescontinueatthisrate,withinsixteenmonthsbyaroundtheendofnextyearitsoil
reservefundswillbeexhausted.
Meanwhile,overthelastyearrealincomeshavedroppedby9.8percent,andfoodpriceshavespikedby17percent,heighteningtherisk
ofcivilunrest.
Systemfailure
Rumblingalongbeneaththesurfaceofsuchfinancialwoesaredeepersystemicissues.
AreportfromtheSwedishDefenceResearchAgencynotesthatprolongeddryperiodsinsouthernRussiaarehavingthe
effectofreducingtheleveloffoodproduction.
MostofRussiaswheatimportscomefromKazakhstan,whereclimatechangeisexpectedtoexacerbatedroughts.These
impactswouldmakefarmingharderandfoodmoreexpensive,observeDr.MarinaSharminaandDr.ChristopherJonesofthe
TyndallCentreforClimateChangeResearch.
Russiasloomingenergycrisisistheotherelephantintheroom.In2013,HSBCforecastedthatRussiawouldhitpeakoilbetween2018
and2019,experiencingabriefplateaubeforedecliningby30percentfrom2020to2025.
Thatyear,FitchRatingscametoprettymuchthesameconclusion.Andlastyear,LeonidFedun,vice-presidentofRussiassecondlargest
oilproducer,Lukoil,predictedthattheproductioncouldpeakearlierduetofallingoilpricesandUS-EUsanctions.
Facedwithoverlappingeconomic,foodandenergycrises,Russiaiswellandtrulyonthebrink.
Warisaracket
RussiasinterventioninSyriaisVladimirPutinsgeopoliticaltrumpcard,headingofftheimminentdefeatofSyrianpresidentBashiral-
AssadsregimeundermultipleWestern-backedrebelforces.
HisgoalwasexplainedthisOctoberinForeignAffairs,thedistinguishedjournalofWashingtonDCsCouncilonForeignRelations.
MostoftheforeignbelligerentsinthewarinSyriaaregas-exportingcountrieswithinterestsinoneofthetwocompeting
pipelineprojectsthatseektocrossSyrianterritorytodelivereitherQatariorIraniangastoEurope,wroteProfessorMitchell
OrensteinoftheDavisCenterforRussianandEurasianStudiesatHarvardUniversity.
IhadreportedonthecompetinggaspipelineplansfortheGuardianin2013.Twoyearslater,ForeignAffairsisfinallycatchingup.
AsOrensteinexplained,in2009,QatarproposedtobuildapipelinetosenditsgasnorthwestviaSaudiArabia,Jordan,andSyriato
TurkeyHowever,SyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadrefusedtosigntheplanRussia,whichdidnotwanttoseeitspositioninEuropean
gasmarketsundermined,puthimunderintensepressurenotto.
RussiasGazpromsells80percentofitsgastoEurope.Soin2010,RussiaputitsweightbehindanalternativeIran-Iraq-Syriapipeline
thatwouldpumpIraniangasfromthesamefieldoutviaSyrianportssuchasLatakiaandundertheMediterranean.Theprojectwould
allowMoscowtocontrolgasimportstoEuropefromIran,theCaspianSearegion,andCentralAsia.
Uptothispoint,USpolicytowardAssadhadbeenambivalent.StateDepartmentcablesobtainedbyWikileaksrevealthatUSpolicyhad
waveredbetweenfinancingSyrianoppositiongroupstofacilitateregimechange,andusingthethreatofregimechangetoinduce
behaviourreform.
ObamaspreferenceforthelatterresultedinUSofficials,includingJohnKerry,shamelesslycourtingAssadinthehopesofpryinghim
awayfromIran,openinguptheSyrianeconomytoUSinvestors,andaligningtheregimewithUS-Israeliregionaldesigns.
EvenwhentheArabSpringprotestsresultedinAssadssecurityforcesbrutalisingpeacefulciviliandemonstratorsinthestreets,both
KerryandthenSecretaryofStateHillaryClintoninsistedthathewasareformer-whichhetookasagreenlighttorespondtofurther
protestswithmassacres.
TheScramblefortheMediterranean
TheninJuly,a$10billionIran-Iraq-Syriapipelinedealwasannounced,andapreliminaryagreementdulysigned.
Bylate2011,theUS,UK,FranceandIsraelwererampingupcovertassistancetorebelfactionsinSyriatoelicitthecollapseofAssads
regimefromwithin.
TheUnitedStatessupportstheQataripipelineasawaytobalanceIrananddiversifyEuropesgassuppliesawayfromRussia,
explainedOrensteininForeignAffairs.
RussiamovedquicklytosupportthepartiesinsigningaMemorandumofUnderstanding(MoU)inJuly2012.Bytheendof2013,Russia
hadsignedanoffshoregasdealwithSyriatoexploretheeasternMediterranean,estimatedtocontainatotalofabout122trillioncubicfeet
ofrecoverablenaturalgas.
ThemovewasseenasunhelpfulbytheUS,whichhasworkedwithIsrael,Egypt,Turkey,CyprusandLebanontodevelopanIsraeli-
dominatedregionalgasexportarchitecturecapableofsupplyingeasternMediterraneangastoEurope.
NaturalgasdiscoveriesintheeasternMediterraneanhavetheabilitytoundermineRussiasdominantpositionasanaturalgassupplier
toWesternEurope,wroteSimonHenderson,directoroftheWashingtonInstitutesGulfandEnergyPolicyProgramme.
Attrition
AsRussiasenergycrisisdeepens,Putinsdesperationoverthegasquestioniscompoundedbyfearsoverthegeopoliticalconsequences
ofAssadsdownfall.
InOctoberlastyear,formerdirectorforChinapolicyattheUSDepartmentofDefence,Dr.ChristinaLin,warnedprescientlythattheif
theUS-ledcoalitionsstrategyagainsttheIslamicState(IS)swungtoofartowardtopplingAssad,itcouldcrossaredlinethatcould
triggerRussianmilitaryescalation.
FromtheRussianperspective,replacingAssadwithanIslamistregimewillalsofurtherexportterrorandradicaliseMuslimsin
Chechnya,wroteLin.RussiaalsowantstoprotectitsnavalportinTartus,andhasalreadydemonstratedthroughitsactioninUkraineit
wouldnothesitatetousemilitaryforcetodefenditscoreinterests.
ShenotedthatTurkeyinparticularhasbeenmoreconcernedwithtopplingAssadthanfightingIS.
Thisisnotsurprisinggiventhat,asaseniorWesternofficialfamiliarwithalargecacheofintelligenceobtainedthissummertoldthe
Guardian,directdealingsbetweenTurkishofficialsandrankingISISmemberswasnowundeniable.
ThesameofficialalsoconfirmedthatTurkeyhasbeensupportingotherjihadistgroups,includingAhraral-ShamandJabhatal-Nusra,al-
QaedasaffiliateinSyria.Thedistinctionstheydraw[withotheroppositiongroups]arethinindeed,saidtheofficial.Thereisnodoubt
atallthattheymilitarilycooperatewithboth.
Thathasn'tstoppedtheUSfromrunningitsrebeltrainingandsupplyprogrammethroughTurkey.
IftheUScontinuestoallowTurkeytochangethemissionofdegradingISISintooneofregimechangeinSyria,saidLinexactlyayear
beforeRussiasmilitaryintervention,thiswouldpitthecoalitionagainsttheotherwisecooperativeBeijing-Moscow-TehranaxisonISIS.
ButPutinisseverelydeludedifhethinksmilitarysolutionsaretheanswertotheperfectstormofclimate,energy,food,economicand
geopoliticalcrisesRussiaisfacing.
In1979,asrevealedbythenNationalSecurityAdviserZbigniewBrzezinski,theUShadcovertlysupportedmujahideenactivitysixmonths
beforetheRussiansinvadedAfghanistan.Theidea,hesaid,wastodrawthemintotheAfghantrap,acceleratingSovietcollapse.
Itworked.
Atthisrate,itsgoingtoworkagaininSyria.
-NafeezAhmedPhDisaninvestigativejournalist,internationalsecurityscholarandbestsellingauthorwhotrackswhathecallsthe
'crisisofcivilization.'HeisawinneroftheProjectCensoredAwardforOutstandingInvestigativeJournalismforhisGuardianreporting
ontheintersectionofglobalecological,energyandeconomiccriseswithregionalgeopoliticsandconflicts.HehasalsowrittenforThe
Independent,SydneyMorningHerald,TheAge,TheScotsman,ForeignPolicy,TheAtlantic,Quartz,Prospect,NewStatesman,LeMonde
diplomatique,NewInternationalist.Hisworkontherootcausesandcovertoperationslinkedtointernationalterrorismofficially
contributedtothe9/11Commissionandthe7/7CoronersInquest.
TheviewsexpressedinthisarticlebelongtotheauthoranddonotnecessarilyreflecttheeditorialpolicyofMiddleEastEye.
Subject:Putin'sGasAttack>IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
wderzko@pathcom.com
Putin'sGasAttack
IsRussiaJustinSyriaforthePipelines?
ByMitchellA.OrensteinandGeorgeRomer
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/syria/2015-10-14/putins-gas-attack
AbouttheAuthor:
MITCHELLA.ORENSTEINisaProfessorofCentralandEastEuropeanpoliticsintheSlavicDepartmentatUniversityof
Pennsylvania.GEORGEROMERisaU.S.NavyveteranandundergraduatestudentattheUniversityofPennsylvania.
RussiasbelligerenceinSyriahasreneweddebatesaboutRussianmotives.JamesNixey,headof
theRussiaandEurasiaProgramatChathamHouse,andXeniaWickett,projectdirectorforthe
UnitedStatesatChathamHouse,probablyputitbestintheirrecentarticle:Why,logically,
wouldacountrybucklingunderthestrainofacrippledeconomyandwhichhasitselfbeenarecent
victimofextremistterror,openupasecondfrontofmilitaryoperationsfarawayfromits
traditionaltheatreofmilitaryengagementintheformerSovietspace?Andwhatelse,otherthan
ulteriormotivestothoseofficiallystated,couldexplainRussiastargetingofSyrian
groupingsotherthanISISstrongholds?
Oneanswerisnaturalgas.Specifically,mostoftheforeignbelligerentsinthewarinSyriaaregas-
exportingcountrieswithinterestsinoneofthetwocompetingpipelineprojectsthatseektocross
SyrianterritorytodelivereitherQatariorIraniangastoEurope.Inshort,asIranemergesfrom
internationalsanctionsanditsmassivegasreservesbecomeavailableforexport,Syriasgaswar
isheatingup.
POWERLINES
In1989,QatarandIranbegantodeveloptheSouthPars/NorthDomefield,whichisburied3,000
metersbelowthefloorofthePersianGulf.With51trillioncubicmetersofgasand50billion
cubicmetersofliquidcondensates,itisthelargestnaturalgasfieldintheworld.Approximately
one-thirdofitsricheslieinIranianwatersandtwo-thirdsinQatariones.
Sincethediscovery,Qatarhasinvestedheavilyinliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)plantsandterminals
thatenableittoshipitsgasaroundtheworldintankers.Yetliquefactionandshippingincrease
totalcostsand,particularlyasgaspriceshaveslipped,Qatarigashasremainedeasilyundercutin
EuropeanmarketsbycheaperpipelinegasfromRussiaandelsewhere.Andso,in2009,Qatar
proposedtobuildapipelinetosenditsgasnorthwestviaSaudiArabia,Jordan,andSyriato
Turkey,aninvestmentofbillionsofdollarsupfrontthatwouldreducetransportationcostsoverthe
longterm.However,SyrianPresidentBasharalAssadrefusedtosigntheplanRussia,whichdid
notwanttoseeitspositioninEuropeangasmarketsundermined,puthimunderintensepressurenot
to.
.
Atthesametime,Iran,sensinganopportunity,andlackingexportinfrastructureforitsownmassive
gasreserves,proposedanalternativeIran-Iraq-SyriapipelinethatwouldpumpIraniangasfrom
thesamefieldoutviaSyrianportssuchasLatakiaandundertheMediterranean.Moscow
apparentlyblessedthisproject,possiblybelievingthatRussiawouldhaveaneasiertimedealing
withIran(unlikeQatar,nothometoaU.S.base)tocontrolgasimportstoEuropefromIran,the
CaspianSearegion,andCentralAsia.TheannouncementoftheIran-Iraq-Syriapipelinedealcame
in2011.ThepartiessignedthedocumentsinJuly2012.Constructionwasslatedtobefinishedin
2016,buttheArabSpringandensuingchaosinSyriainterfered.
ENTERRUSSIA
Sincethestartofthefighting,IranhasprovidedextensivesupporttotheAssadgovernment.By
someaccounts,itismoreorlessrunningtheSyrianarmy,aswellassupplyingitwithweaponsand
noweventroopsfromitsRevolutionaryGuardandQudsforces.Tehranhasnumerousreasonsfor
supportingAssadDamascushasbeenareliableallyandchannelforsendingarmstoHezbollah
andSyriasstatusasapotentialtransitrouteforIransvastnaturalgasreservessurelyfigures
in.
Qatar,meanwhile,beganworkingtoousttheAssadregimebyfundingrebelgroupstothetuneofan
estimated$3billionbetween2011and2013.Itevenoffereda$50,000rewardtodefectorsfrom
theSyrianregimeandtheirfamiliesandhostsabasefromwhichtheCIAhastrainedSyrian
rebels.QatarsrelationswithSyriahadpreviouslybeencordialthatis,untilQatarsAl-Jazeera
playedavitalroleinsupportingtheArabSpringrevoltsandgaveavoicetotheprotestsinSyria.
QataralsosoughttoisolateAssaddiplomaticallybyhandingSyriasseatintheArabLeaguetothe
opposition.Indoingso,QatarendangereditspreviouslycloserelationswithIran.
TheRussianinterventionaddsanewlayer.RussiawouldratherseetheIranIraqSyriapipeline
builtornopipelineatall,sothatitcanbestcontrolgassuppliestoEurope,itsmainmarket.For
Qatar,SyriarepresentsanopportunitytotransportitsgastomarketcheaplyorblockIranfrom
dominatingpipelineexportsfromajointly-ownedfield.
TheUnitedStates,meanwhile,supportstheQataripipelineasawaytobalanceIrananddiversify
EuropesgassuppliesawayfromRussia.
AndTurkey,likewise,believesthattheQataripipelinewouldhelpitdiversifyitsowngassupplies
awayfromRussianenergyandfurtheritsambitionstobeagastransithubbetweenAsiaand
Europe.Russianstatemediahas,inrecentdays,remindedTurkeythatitisunlikelytomanage
withoutRussiangasandthatTurkeysothermajorsupplier,Iran,isalignedwithRussiainSyria.
Inotherwords,anypoliticalsettlementoftheSyriacrisismustalsoreconcilecompetinggas
interests.Onewaytodothiswouldbetoenablebothpipelinestobebuilt,sothatQatariand
Iraniangascanbebroughttomarketcheaply.Thatwouldresolveatleastonedriveroftheconflict.
Infact,itwouldservetheinterestsofallactorsreasonablywell,exceptforRussia.
Indeed,thedualpipelineswouldbeadisasterfortheKremlin.Russiahasavitalinterestin
controllinggassuppliestoEurope,whereGazpromsells80percentofitsgas.TheEuropeanUnion
hassucceededindiversifyingsuppliesinrecentyears(inpartthroughLNGimports)andseeksto
developadditionalpipelinesfromCentralAsiaandtheMiddleEasttofurtherreduceitsreliance
onRussiangas.NewpipelinesfromQatarandIrancouldtakeawaymarketsharefromRussia,but
moreimportantlyreducepricesbelowwhattheRussianstatebudgetneedstosurvive.
Russiahasshownawillingnesstogotowaroversuchissuesbefore.ItfoughtthewarinGeorgia
tofrustrateWesternplanstoexportgasfromtheCaspianSearegiontotheWestviaAzerbaijanand
GeorgiatoTurkey.
ItwenttowarinUkraineinordertocontrolavitaltransitstatebetweenRussiaandEurope.
AnditisreasonabletoexpectthatRussiawillgodownfightingtopreventaQataripipelinefrom
crossingSyriaonitswaytoEuropeandtomakeIranianexportsreliantonRussiansupport.Italso
explainswhyRussiahaschosentotargetQatari-andSaudi-fundedrebelgroupsinSyriainits
bombingcampaign,andwhyRussiasinvolvementhasonlybolsteredtheGulfStatesresolve.
Whensuchenergyconsiderationsaretakenintoaccount,itseemsclearthatsurrenderingSyriato
IranianandRussianinterests,assomehaverecommendedinrecentweeks,wouldbeadisaster.
ButnegotiatingasolutionwillbeverydifficultwithRussiawhenU.S.andRussianinterestsareso
sharplyopposed.TheUnitedStatesmuststandfirmandusethecrisistobegintomendrelations
withTurkey,SaudiArabia,andothertraditionalalliesintheMiddleEast,withwhichtieshave
beenfrayedbythetumultoftheArabSpring.Turkey,atthecrossroadsofAsiaandEurope,stands
thebestchanceofplayinganhonestbrokerroleingastransitandensuring,withU.S.support,that
allgassuppliersintheMiddleEasthavetheabilitytofreelyexportandtransporttheirvaluable
commodity.
Senttime: 10/23/201511:53:46AM
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/10/23/emergency-royal-family-meeting-jeb-to-meet-with-former-
presidents-bush-41-bush-43-in-houston-as-campaign-struggles/
EMERGENCYROYALFAMILYMEETING:JEB
TOMEETWITHFORMERPRESIDENTSBUSH
41,BUSH43INHOUSTONASCAMPAIGN
STRUGGLES
AnemergencyBushfamilymeetingisscheduledforthisweekendinHouston,Texas,asformerFloridaGov.Jeb
Bushs2016presidentialcampaignfallsapart.
InHouston,formerPresidentsGeorgeW.BushandGeorgeH.W.BushandformerFirstLadyBarbaraBushwill
huddlewiththethirdBushfamilymemberseekingtoascendtothepresidency,Jeb.
Themeetingswillalsoincludeseveralcampaignfundraiserswithtophigh-dollarTexasdonors,asthetwoformer
presidentsseektojump-startastalledJebcampaign.
AsJebBushheadstoTexasonSundaytorallytopfundraisersalongwithhisfatherandbrother,formerpresidents
GeorgeH.W.BushandGeorgeW.Bush,thefamilysvauntedfinancialnetworkismostlydisengagedandsplintered
andhiscampaignstockisfalling,theWallStreetJournalreports.
About170donorswhohaveeachraisedatleast$50,000areexpectedtoattendsocialgatheringsandstrategy
briefingsovertwodays,theWSJsRebeccaBallhausandChristopherStewartwrote.Thosewhohaveraisedat
least$175,000willhavethemostaccesstotheBushfamily,includingareceptionwithformerPresidentGeorge
H.W.BushandformerFirstLadyBarbaraBush.
TheemergencyBushmeetingscomeashesstrugglinginmostpollsafterlongtimeGOPfrontrunnerDonaldTrump
whohasremainedatthetopofallpollsfor100days,butishimselfexperiencingabitofaslipinIowabehindfellow
outsiderDr.BenCarsonhassuccessfullytormentedhiscampaignwithlabelslikelow-energyandattacking
Bushssupportforopenbordersimmigrationandamnestyforillegalaliens.
Whatsmore,BushsfreefallingcampaignhasorderedwhatBloombergNewsdescribesasacross-the-boardpay
cutsforallofitsstaff.Suchamoveisviewedbymanyinpoliticsasanactofdesperationandasignofimpending
doomforacampaign,asitisproofpositivethattheefforthasfailedtoraiseenoughmoneyforitspreviously
budgetedprojectionsforoperationsizeallwhilefailingtoreachpoliticalgoals.
Thecampaignisremovingsomeseniorstafffromthepayroll,partingwayswithsomeconsultants,anddownsizingits
Miamiheadquarterstosavemorethan$1millionpermonthandcutpayrollby40percentthisweek,accordingto
Bushcampaignofficialswhorequestedanonymitytospeakaboutinternalchanges,BloombergsMarkHalperinand
MichaelBenderreported:
Thecampaignisalsocuttingback45percentofitsbudget,exceptfordollarsearmarkedforTV
advertisingandspendingforvotercontacts,suchasphonecallsandmailers.Somesenior-levelstaffand
consultantswillcontinuetoworkwiththecampaignonavolunteerbasis,whileotherjunior-level
consultants,primarilyinfinancebutincludingotherareas,willbeletgo,theofficialssaid.Theofficials
declinedtosaywhowouldberemovedfromthepayrollorprovideanexactdollarfigureforthe
savings.
WhatsperhapsmostshockingisanopenadmissionbytheBushcampaigninatalkingpointsdocumentprovided
toBloombergthattheyhavebeenblindsidedbytheriseofTrump.Itsanincredibleadmissionofignoranceinthe
2016racethatthepoliticalconsultantsnowindangerofextinctionontheBushcampaignaremaking.
Itsnotsecretthatthecontoursofthisracehavechangedfromwhatwasanticipatedatthestart,thetalkingpoints
documentfromtheBushcampaignreads,beforereferencingTrumpwithoutnaminghim.Wewouldbelessthan
forthcomingifwesaidwepredictedinJunethatarealitytelevisionstarsupportingCanadian-stylesingle-payerhealth
careandpartial-birthabortionwouldbeleadingtheGOPprimary.
From: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Senttime: 10/21/201502:56:41PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:DonaldTrump,GeorgeW.Bush,andResponsibilityfor9/11-TheAtlantic
Goodarticle.
OnWednesday,October21,20154:56PM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/10/did-george-w-bush-do-all-he-could-to-prevent-911/411175/
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 10/22/201508:41:32AM
FW:[IMPORTANTEVENINGREADS...OCT21]JeffreyG:Putinhashisagenda.It'stimewestopreactingtohis-andgetbacktoours.....David
Subject:
Ignatius:TeamRU/WorldPolice.......MariusL[2]Putin'sUltimateGoals.....YaroslavP:ProperEducationCanHelp...
Sent:Wednesday,October21,20153:19PM
Subject:Fwd:[IMPORTANTEVENINGREADS...OCT21]JeffreyG:Putinhashisagenda.It'stimewestopreactingtohis-andgetbackto
ours.....DavidIgnatius:TeamRU/WorldPolice.......MariusL[2]Putin'sUltimateGoals.....YaroslavP:ProperEducationCanHelp...
Date:Wed,Oct21,2015at6:17PM
Subject:[IMPORTANTEVENINGREADS...OCT21]JeffreyG:Putinhashisagenda.It'stimewestopreactingtohis-andget
backtoours.....DavidIgnatius:TeamRU/WorldPolice.......MariusL[2]Putin'sUltimateGoals.....YaroslavP:ProperEducation
CanHelpUkrainetoOvercomeCorruption
Subject:ForgetRussiainSyria/Putinhashisagenda.It'stimewestopreactingtohis-andgetbacktoours.
To:1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,1WalterZaryckyj
<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wderzko@pathcom.com
TheWestandRussia:
ForgetRussiainSyria
JeffreyGedmin
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/10/20/forget-russia-in-syria/
Putinhashisagenda.Itstimewestopreactingtohisandgetbacktoours.
InthehistoryofwarfareIdonotrecollectamorefortunateretreat,oneofGeorgeWashingtonsclosestaidesoncesaid.The
referencewastoeventsinthelatesummerof1776,whentheContinentalArmywasbeingroutedbytheBritishinNewYork.
GeneralWashingtonwasspent.HehadexhaustedhimselfridingupanddownthelinesatBrooklynHeights,rallyingdispirited
troops.Oneofeveryfiveofhissolderswassickfromeitherdysenteryorsmallpox.Militiaunitsweredesertingindroves.There
washeavypressurefromCongresstodefendNewYorkharbor.
Undercoverofadenseearlymorningfog,however,thecommanderoftheContinentalArmypulledoffabrilliantsurpriseretreat.
Ratherthanseeinghisforcesdecimated,histroopsweresavedtofightanotherday.Itturnedouttobeaturningpointinthewar.
Thatexamplecaninspireustoday,astheU.S.considershowtorespondtoRussiaandthefrayingglobalorder.
TheU.S.wouldbewell-advisedtoresisttheimpulsetorashlyrespondtoRussiasinterventioninSyria.Foronething,oneshould
neverinterruptyourenemywhenhesmakingamistake,asNapoleonputit.Ifwerelucky,RussianforcesinSyriawillmeeta
similarfateastheSovietsinAfghanistan.ButitsalsourgentweregroupfromtheshamblesthatistheObamaAdministrations
foreignpolicy.TheWestern-ledworldorderiscrumblingtoday.OurfailuresinIraqandAfghanistan,deepcutstoourdefense
budgets,aresurgentRussia,arisingChina,theemergenceofISIS,andthestayingpowerofatheocraticIran,bentwithor
withoutnuclearweaponsonregionalhegemonyallsuggestafuturewherepeacewillbeconstantlythreatenedandourinterests
underminedateveryturn.
Wecantsolvethisnexusofissuesatonce.NorcanwehavehighhopesthatPresidentObamawillsuddenlygraspwhysomuchis
comingunraveled.Butwecanstartadiscussionaboutourlargeraims,asEliotCohensuggestedinthesepagesrecently,andwe
canbeginthatbyproposingthatwemanageakeyproblemathand.WemustendtheinsidiouscyclewherebyRussianPresident
VladimirPutinactsandwescrambletoreact.Playingwhack-a-molesiphonspreciousresourcesandchipsawayatourreputation
asaworldleader.Putinhashisagenda.Itstimewegetbacktoours.
Ourvisionoughttobestraightforward.Onthecontinent,wewantaEuropewholeandfree,withastrongNATOandastable,
prosperousEuropeanUnion.IntheMiddleEastcurrentchaosnotwithstandingwewantAmericanprimacy(nothegemony)in
ordertoprotectoureconomicandsecurityinterestsand,whereandwhenpossible,toadvancethecauseofdemocracyand
humanrights.Equallystraightforward:Inbothcases,Putinacunningopportunistandmasterofplayingaweakhandstrongly
hasbecomefarmorethanamereannoyance.PutinwantstobuildRussiaupbycuttingAmericadown.Heneedshis
comeuppance.Weneedastrategytocontainhim,andtoprepareforimprovedrelationswithRussiaonceVlad(ourimpaler)is
gone.
Whatdoessuchastrategylooklike?
First,NATO:Wemustprovidevigoroussupportforalliancemembersatriskatthemoment,thethreeBalticstatesandPoland.
Theadministrationscurrentplansareinadequate.Additionaltroopsandtanksonarotatingbasisareokay.Infinitelybetter,
though,isapermanentlybased,brigade-size,multinationalforceacrosstheBaltics.AmericaandtheWestneedrealskininthe
game.
Inaddition,weneedtofindwaystoembedtheScandinaviansinallofthis,includingnon-NATOmembersFinlandandSweden.
BothcountrieshavebeensubjecttoamyriadofRussianthreatsthepastseveralyears.Thispastspring,thefiveNordicdefense
ministersjointlypledgedinapublicdeclarationtostrengthenmilitarycapabilities.Letscapitalizeonthisinitiativeandworkto
promotedeeper,regionalpoliticalcohesion.
Foritspart,PolandneedspermanentNATObases.WemustdoeverythingwecantoallayfearsamongPolesthatthecountry
maybecomeonedayabufferstateagainstRussianaggression.Weneedscreamingredlinesforarticle5andsub-article5
threatsforallNATOmembers.ThisrequiresverycloseconsultationwithouralliesmostofalltheGermanswhohavebeenthe
leastkeenofallNATOmemberstomoveinthisdirection.Allofthis(plusongoingNATOenlargement)mustbepartofthe
agendaforNATOssummitinWarsawnextJuly.NATOsdoorsmustremainopenforcountrieslikeGeorgia,Montenegro,and
MacedoniaifwereseriousaboutaEuropewholeandfree,andifwewanttogetbacktosettingouragendaratherthan
perpetuallyreactingtoanagendadeterminedbyothers.
Second,Ukraine:Weneedtoextendrobusteconomic,political,andmilitarysupportforKiev.UkraineisnotperipheralforPutin
itisatthecoreofhisconcerns.Hecantlosehereandwinathomeoranywhereelse.Wewontdrivehimoutanytimesoon,but,
asanelementofourlargerstrategy,wecanmakehisUkraineadventurefarmorecostly.
Sanctionshavebeenuseful,buttheyneedtobeexpandedandsustained.AsNYUProfessorMarkGaleottihasargued,sectoral
sanctionsarefineandgood,butweshouldalsotargetmoremembersoftheKremlinsinnercircle,includingpreventingtheir
spousesandchildrenfromvacationingorstudyingabroad.AstepinthisdirectionismuchmorelikelytoputpressureonPutin
directly.
WealsoneedtohelptrainandbeginseriouslytoarmUkrainianswhoarefightingvaliantlyfortheircountry.Hostilitieshavedied
downinthecountryseastforthetimebeingasRussiafocusesonSyria,but,aswewellknowfromvariousotherprecedents,a
frozenconflictandmakenomistake,thatswheretheMinskprotocolistakingtheDonbasismoreaperpetualstandoffthana
lastingpeace.WithPutinlookingelsewhere,weoughttotaketheopportunitytoputUkrainesfightingforcesonthebestpossible
footinggoingforward.ItsverytruethattheUkrainianarmedforces,evenafterseveralroundsofreforms,arenotinparticularly
goodshape,andbysomeaccountstheyarestillriddledwithRussianspies.Butthatonlymeansthatthefixeswontbeeasynot
thattheyshouldnotbeattempted.
Yes,Putinwillprobablyrespond,andtherewillbeanescalationladder.PeaceniksinEuropewillbeoutinlargenumbers,
bankrolledinpartbyMoscow,astheyhavebeeninthepast.EUcapitalswillhardlybeinclinedtoconfrontationfromtheget-go.
Wellneedtohorsetrade,andthiswillincludehelpingEuropeanswiththeirmigrationcrises.Butnottakingthisopportunitytobuild
upUkrainesdefensecapacitieswouldbeastrategicblunderofthefirstorder.Ourapproachhastobethestuffofalonggame.
Ukrainiansknowthis,andappeartobereadyforit.Wemustntleavethemhanging.
Third,intherealmofideasandintheinformationwar,itsimperativethatwestopfrettingabouthowwerespondtoRussian
propaganda.Here,too,letsfocusonouragendaandonthenarrativeswewanttoadvance.Putinispopular,orsoitssaid.So
wasMussolini,foratime.ThewaytodeflateRussiasmalignnationalismistoendPutinsstringofperceivedvictoriesGeorgia,
Ukraine,Syria,andotherinstanceswherehethumbshisnoseattheWestandshowRussianswhatitlookslikewhenapetty
tyrantgoesonalosingstreak.AndwemustgetRussianstalkingtoRussiansaboutallofthis.Letsnurtureourtiesnotonlyto
RussianliberalsbutalsomoreimportantlytoRussiannationalists,whomaywellinduecourseturnagainstPutinandconsidera
morepragmaticapproachintheirrelationswiththeWest.
Letslookforcleavages.LetsdrivewedgesinMr.Putinsrulingclass.Itswhatabroadcoalitionofanti-CommunistRussian
broadcastersworkingforRadioLibertydidbrilliantlyduringtheColdWar.Intheinformationspace,weneedtoworkwithour
Europeanallies.Ourjointeffortsrequiretheuseofmultipleplatformsweb,radio,television,socialmediaandcreativeand
compellingprogramming.(Takenote:PutinsRT,likeourveryownDonaldTrump,knowshowtoentertain.)Andwhenwerefully
prohibitedfromworkinginsidethecountry,asissuretohappeninduetime,letsgetbacktobeamingintoRussiafromtheoutside.
Fourth,speakingofnarratives,thesprawlingkleptocracyPutinpresidesovermaywellbetheAchillesheelofhisregime.
Corruptionisnotmerelyabyproductofhisauthoritarianism:KleptocracyisattheheartofhowthePutinistsystemgetsthings
done.ThepersonalenrichmentoftheKremlinleaderandofthoseclosesttohimneedstobedocumentedandfullyexposed.
RussiansneedtoknowtheextenttowhichPutinandhiscroniesarelootingtheircountryfinancially,culturally,andspiritually.
Andtogetthispiececompletelyright,weneedtotackletheWesternenablers,too:Putinandhisfellowkleptocratscanonlydo
whattheydobecauseWesternbanks,high-flyingrealestatefirmsinplaceslikeLondonandNewYork,andfinancialinstitutions
knowinglyhandledirtymoney.(Fulldisclosure:ImontheboardoftheKleptocracyInitiative,aprojectfundedandledbythe
publisherofTheAmericanInterest.)
Noneofthiscanhappenovernight.Andevenifwemanagetodeliver100percentonwhatIhaveoutlinedabove,therewillstill
beanimmenseamounttodotocontinueadvancingacoherentvisionforEuropeandtheMiddleEast.DealingwithPutinsRussia,
however,isanecessaryfirststepaclearingoftheheavybrush.
Inthesummerof1776,Washingtonwouldnothavehadaprayertoprevailhadhisfamousretreatnottakenplaceinthecontextof
alargervisionandplan.Togetwhereweneedtobe,wemustplaceourforeignpoliciesonceagaininalargerviewofthings.Ifwe
keepflounderingwithoutacompassoramaporaclueofwherewewanttoendupourendlessreactivetacticswillgrindus
downuntil,fortheWest,theresnothingbutconfusionanddisarrayleft.
JeffreyGedminisseniorfellowatGeorgetownUniversitySchoolofForeignService,asenioradviseratBlueStarStrategies,and
co-directoroftheTransatlanticRenewalProject.
From:jm200p<jm200p@mac.com>
Date:2015-10-2117:40GMT-04:00
Subject:TeamRussia:WorldPolice
To:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/team-russia-world-police/2015/10/20/f123b480-7748-11e5-a958-
d889faf561dc_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_opinions
Opinions
TeamRussia:WorldPolice
ResizeText
PrintArticle
Comments149
PresidentObama,right,andRussianPresidentVladimirPutinatU.N.headquartersin
September.(SergeyGuneyev/RIA-Novosti,KremlinPoolPhotoviaAssociatedPress)(Sergey
Guneyev/AP)
ByDavidIgnatiusOpinionwriterOctober20at8:23PM
ThegodfatherofRussiasmilitaryinterventioninSyriaisYevgenyPrimakov,aformerprimeministerand
intelligencechiefandfordecadeshisnationsleadingArabist.AhintofPrimakovsinfluenceonRussian
PresidentVladimirPutincameintheunusualeulogythatPutindeliveredathisfriendsfuneralinMoscow
fourmonthsago.
Primakovhadglobalvisionandwasopenandboldinhisthinking,Putintoldmourners.Byasserting
Russiasinterestsandpower,Primakovgotthecountrythroughaveryseriouscrisisafterthefallofthe
SovietUnion.HisunderstandingoftheMiddleEastwastremendous,andhisinfluencebeyondRussia
wasundeniable,Putinsaid.
Manyspokewithhim,soughthisadvice,sharedwithhimtheirplansandactions,Putinsaid.Icansay
thatthisappliesinfullmeasuretomyself,too.
PutinismovingwithadeterminationthatPrimakovwouldhaveadmiredbutmightalsohaveseenas
risky.BysendingRussianwarplanes,troopsandtankstoSyria,PutinhaslaunchedoneofRussias
boldestmilitarymovessince1945.HehasbeguntorestorePrimakovsdreamofRussianinfluenceinthe
Arabworld,butatacostofassumingtheburdenoffightingMuslimextremism,aneffortthathasbeenso
drainingfortheUnitedStates.
PrimakovsymbolizedtheideathatRussianpowerwasnotdeadinthepost-Sovietera,andthat
MoscowwasnotapermanentjuniorpartnertoWashington.Hisdefiningmomentcamein1999,whenas
primeministerheturnedaroundhisplaneonthewaytotheUnitedStatesandflewhomeafterlearning
thatNATOwouldbeinterveningmilitarilyinKosovo,againstRussianwishes.
Russianscalledthemid-AtlanticcoursereversalPrimakovsloop.ThemessagewasthatRussiamight
betooweaktostopU.S.militaryaction,butitwouldntmeeklysubmittoU.S.dictation.
ThenewspaperIzvestiapublishedaeulogyforPrimakovinJulythatstressedhisroleinassertingRussias
independenceanddignityinthosedaysofnationaldespair:Hemanagedtostopthishumiliatingslideof
Russiatowardthestatusofacountryinreceivership,andtoreformatourforeignpolicy,restoringhonor
anddecency.
PrimakovsspecialtywastheArabworld.HewasRussiaspremierhandlerofitstwochiefArabclients,
theAssadregimeinSyriaandSaddamHusseininIraq.
OverPrimakovscareer,whenU.S.powerintheMiddleEast,anchoredbyIsrael,wasontherise,a
moribundRussialostoneallyafteranother.ThisstartedwithitsexpulsionfromEgyptin1972and
continuedasregimesinIraqandLibyaweretoppled.
PutindecidedtostandhisgroundinSyria,asPrimakovprobablycounseled.Russiasinterventionthere
hasbeenadvancinginslowmotionformonths,butU.S.analystsseemtohavemisseditsmilitary
dimensionandconsequences.PresidentObamaandSecretaryofStateJohnF.Kerrywelcomedgreater
RussiandiplomaticinvolvementintheregionafterMoscowsgenerallyhelpfulroleintheIrannuclear
talks.TheyapparentlydidntanticipatethatRussiawouldseektobolsterSyrianPresidentBasharal-
Assadonthebattlefieldasapreludetoanydiplomacy.
Putinwashardlyambiguousabouthisintentions.HesaidinaSept.28speechtotheUnitedNations:It
isnowobviousthatthepowervacuumcreatedinsomecountriesoftheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica
ledtoemergenceofanarchyareas....Wethinkitisanenormousmistaketorefusetocooperatewith
theSyriangovernmentanditsarmedforces,whoarevaliantlyfightingterrorismface-to-face.
FortheUnitedStates,militaryinterventioninIraqwasawarofchoice.ButinPutinsmind,fightingthe
IslamicStateseemstobeanexistentialmatter,foraRussiawithalargeandgrowingMuslimpopulation.
IfRussiareallymeanstobetheenforceragainsttheIslamicState,thiscouldmeanafundamentalchange
inpowerrelationsintheMiddleEastwithRussiabiddingtobecomeprotectornotjustofAssadbut
ofaEuropethatisfrightenedaboutterrorism,refugeesandenergysupplies.
AttheUnitedNationsinSeptember,IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideral-AbadiaskedPutinifhewasserious
abouttakingonthejihadists.AccordingtoanIraqiofficial,Putinansweredthathewasseriousabout
dealingwiththethreatposedby2,000RussianswhohavejoinedtheIslamicState.
PrimakovdreamedaboutrevivingRussianpowerintheMiddleEastandglobally.Putinisnowdoingit,
anditsachange,fraughtwithdangerforRussiaandtheUnitedStatesboth,thatcouldalterthebalance
ofpowerintheregionandbeyond.
ReadmorefromDavidIgnatiussarchive,followhimonTwitterorsubscribetohisupdateson
Facebook.
From:MariusLaurinavicius<marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org>
Date:Wed,Oct21,2015at12:18AM
Subject:
To:MariusLaurinavicius<marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org>
Cc:
DearFriends,Colleagues,
IwouldliketosharewithyoumyfirsttwopiecesoftheseriesaboutPutinsultimategoalsasI
understandthem.
http://en.delfi.lt/centraleasterneurope/putinsrussiakremlinsgoalno1.d?id=69135920
http://en.delfi.lt/centraleasterneurope/putinsrussiawhatiskremlinactuallycapableof.d?
id=69321756
Incasesomeofyoumightconsiderthesearticlesworthtobedistributedfurther,pleasefindlinksto
themonmytwitter:
http://twitter.com/LaurinaviciusM/status/649273582435074049
http://twitter.com/LitdelNATO/status/656461553361928192
Iwouldappreciateyouranyofyourfeedbackonthesearticles!

Bestwishes
Marius
From:YaroslavPylynskyi<ypylynskyi@gmail.com>
Date:2015-10-2114:48GMT-04:00
Subject:Re:P.Yaroslav.....Canyousendyour'stattya'again?Iseemtohavemisplacedit!
[ProperEducationCanHelpUkrainetoOvercomeCorruption]
...
,.
YaroslavPylynskyi
ProperEducationCanHelpUkrainetoOvercomeCorruption
Thewickedmantakesabribeinsecret
inordertopervertthecourseofjustice.
(Proverbs17:23)

From: Anderson,Warren<Warren.Anderson@schwab.com>
Senttime: 10/19/201508:41:28AM
Subject: RE:youwon'tlikethisoneatall........
I'dagreethereareplentyofETFsouttherethatshouldbeavoidedandthatsomeofthemaredang
erous.
Idon'tthinkinternationalinvestingisawasteoftime,butithascertainlyfeltthatwayatti
mesintherecentpast.
I'mnotabig(orsmall)Trumpfaneither!Ihopealliswell.
Warren
______________________
WarrenAnderson,AAMS
VicePresident-FinancialConsultant|NationalBranchDenver
NMLS#731559
Tel8774762286|Fax8665069609
9800SchwabWay,LoneTree,CO80124
CharlesSchwab&Co.,Inc.CharlesSchwabBank*Separatebutaffiliatedcompanies
CharlesSchwabBankandCharlesSchwab&Co.,Inc.areseparatebutaffiliatedcompaniesandsubsi
diariesofTheCharlesSchwabCorporation.InvestmentproductsareofferedbyCharlesSchwab&Co.
,Inc.(memberSIPC).CharlesSchwab&Co.,Inc.doesnotsolicit,offer,endorse,negotiateoror
iginateanymortgageloanproductsandisneitheralicensedmortgagebrokernoralicensedmortga
gelender.HomelendingisofferedandprovidedbyQuickenLoans,Inc.,EqualHousingLender.Quic
kenLoansInc.,isnotaffiliatedwithTheCharlesSchwabCorporation,CharlesSchwab&Co.,Inc.
orCharlesSchwabBank.DepositandotherlendingproductsareofferedbyCharlesSchwabBank,Mem
berFDICandanEqualHousingLender.
InvestmentProducts:NotFDIC-Insured|NoBankGuarantee|MayLoseValue
NOTICE:AllemailsenttoorfromtheCharlesSchwabcorporateemailsystemissubjecttoarchivin
g,monitoringand/orreviewbySchwabpersonnel.
Senttime: 10/22/201508:41:32AM
FW:[IMPORTANTEVENINGREADS...OCT21]JeffreyG:Putinhashisagenda.It'stimewestopreactingtohis-andgetbacktoours.....David
Subject:
Ignatius:TeamRU/WorldPolice.......MariusL[2]Putin'sUltimateGoals.....YaroslavP:ProperEducationCanHelp...
Sent:Wednesday,October21,20153:19PM
Subject:Fwd:[IMPORTANTEVENINGREADS...OCT21]JeffreyG:Putinhashisagenda.It'stimewestopreactingtohis-andgetbackto
ours.....DavidIgnatius:TeamRU/WorldPolice.......MariusL[2]Putin'sUltimateGoals.....YaroslavP:ProperEducationCanHelp...
Subject:[IMPORTANTEVENINGREADS...OCT21]JeffreyG:Putinhashisagenda.It'stimewestopreactingtohis-andget
backtoours.....DavidIgnatius:TeamRU/WorldPolice.......MariusL[2]Putin'sUltimateGoals.....YaroslavP:ProperEducation
CanHelpUkrainetoOvercomeCorruption
Subject:ForgetRussiainSyria/Putinhashisagenda.It'stimewestopreactingtohis-andgetbacktoours.
To:1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,1WalterZaryckyj
<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wderzko@pathcom.com
TheWestandRussia:
ForgetRussiainSyria
JeffreyGedmin
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/10/20/forget-russia-in-syria/
Putinhashisagenda.Itstimewestopreactingtohisandgetbacktoours.
InthehistoryofwarfareIdonotrecollectamorefortunateretreat,oneofGeorgeWashingtonsclosestaidesoncesaid.The
referencewastoeventsinthelatesummerof1776,whentheContinentalArmywasbeingroutedbytheBritishinNewYork.
GeneralWashingtonwasspent.HehadexhaustedhimselfridingupanddownthelinesatBrooklynHeights,rallyingdispirited
troops.Oneofeveryfiveofhissolderswassickfromeitherdysenteryorsmallpox.Militiaunitsweredesertingindroves.There
washeavypressurefromCongresstodefendNewYorkharbor.
Undercoverofadenseearlymorningfog,however,thecommanderoftheContinentalArmypulledoffabrilliantsurpriseretreat.
Ratherthanseeinghisforcesdecimated,histroopsweresavedtofightanotherday.Itturnedouttobeaturningpointinthewar.
Thatexamplecaninspireustoday,astheU.S.considershowtorespondtoRussiaandthefrayingglobalorder.
TheU.S.wouldbewell-advisedtoresisttheimpulsetorashlyrespondtoRussiasinterventioninSyria.Foronething,oneshould
neverinterruptyourenemywhenhesmakingamistake,asNapoleonputit.Ifwerelucky,RussianforcesinSyriawillmeeta
similarfateastheSovietsinAfghanistan.ButitsalsourgentweregroupfromtheshamblesthatistheObamaAdministrations
foreignpolicy.TheWestern-ledworldorderiscrumblingtoday.OurfailuresinIraqandAfghanistan,deepcutstoourdefense
budgets,aresurgentRussia,arisingChina,theemergenceofISIS,andthestayingpowerofatheocraticIran,bentwithor
withoutnuclearweaponsonregionalhegemonyallsuggestafuturewherepeacewillbeconstantlythreatenedandourinterests
underminedateveryturn.
Wecantsolvethisnexusofissuesatonce.NorcanwehavehighhopesthatPresidentObamawillsuddenlygraspwhysomuchis
comingunraveled.Butwecanstartadiscussionaboutourlargeraims,asEliotCohensuggestedinthesepagesrecently,andwe
canbeginthatbyproposingthatwemanageakeyproblemathand.WemustendtheinsidiouscyclewherebyRussianPresident
VladimirPutinactsandwescrambletoreact.Playingwhack-a-molesiphonspreciousresourcesandchipsawayatourreputation
asaworldleader.Putinhashisagenda.Itstimewegetbacktoours.
Ourvisionoughttobestraightforward.Onthecontinent,wewantaEuropewholeandfree,withastrongNATOandastable,
prosperousEuropeanUnion.IntheMiddleEastcurrentchaosnotwithstandingwewantAmericanprimacy(nothegemony)in
ordertoprotectoureconomicandsecurityinterestsand,whereandwhenpossible,toadvancethecauseofdemocracyand
humanrights.Equallystraightforward:Inbothcases,Putinacunningopportunistandmasterofplayingaweakhandstrongly
hasbecomefarmorethanamereannoyance.PutinwantstobuildRussiaupbycuttingAmericadown.Heneedshis
comeuppance.Weneedastrategytocontainhim,andtoprepareforimprovedrelationswithRussiaonceVlad(ourimpaler)is
gone.
Whatdoessuchastrategylooklike?
First,NATO:Wemustprovidevigoroussupportforalliancemembersatriskatthemoment,thethreeBalticstatesandPoland.
Theadministrationscurrentplansareinadequate.Additionaltroopsandtanksonarotatingbasisareokay.Infinitelybetter,
though,isapermanentlybased,brigade-size,multinationalforceacrosstheBaltics.AmericaandtheWestneedrealskininthe
game.
Inaddition,weneedtofindwaystoembedtheScandinaviansinallofthis,includingnon-NATOmembersFinlandandSweden.
BothcountrieshavebeensubjecttoamyriadofRussianthreatsthepastseveralyears.Thispastspring,thefiveNordicdefense
ministersjointlypledgedinapublicdeclarationtostrengthenmilitarycapabilities.Letscapitalizeonthisinitiativeandworkto
promotedeeper,regionalpoliticalcohesion.
Foritspart,PolandneedspermanentNATObases.WemustdoeverythingwecantoallayfearsamongPolesthatthecountry
maybecomeonedayabufferstateagainstRussianaggression.Weneedscreamingredlinesforarticle5andsub-article5
threatsforallNATOmembers.ThisrequiresverycloseconsultationwithouralliesmostofalltheGermanswhohavebeenthe
leastkeenofallNATOmemberstomoveinthisdirection.Allofthis(plusongoingNATOenlargement)mustbepartofthe
agendaforNATOssummitinWarsawnextJuly.NATOsdoorsmustremainopenforcountrieslikeGeorgia,Montenegro,and
MacedoniaifwereseriousaboutaEuropewholeandfree,andifwewanttogetbacktosettingouragendaratherthan
perpetuallyreactingtoanagendadeterminedbyothers.
Second,Ukraine:Weneedtoextendrobusteconomic,political,andmilitarysupportforKiev.UkraineisnotperipheralforPutin
itisatthecoreofhisconcerns.Hecantlosehereandwinathomeoranywhereelse.Wewontdrivehimoutanytimesoon,but,
asanelementofourlargerstrategy,wecanmakehisUkraineadventurefarmorecostly.
Sanctionshavebeenuseful,buttheyneedtobeexpandedandsustained.AsNYUProfessorMarkGaleottihasargued,sectoral
sanctionsarefineandgood,butweshouldalsotargetmoremembersoftheKremlinsinnercircle,includingpreventingtheir
spousesandchildrenfromvacationingorstudyingabroad.AstepinthisdirectionismuchmorelikelytoputpressureonPutin
directly.
WealsoneedtohelptrainandbeginseriouslytoarmUkrainianswhoarefightingvaliantlyfortheircountry.Hostilitieshavedied
downinthecountryseastforthetimebeingasRussiafocusesonSyria,but,aswewellknowfromvariousotherprecedents,a
frozenconflictandmakenomistake,thatswheretheMinskprotocolistakingtheDonbasismoreaperpetualstandoffthana
lastingpeace.WithPutinlookingelsewhere,weoughttotaketheopportunitytoputUkrainesfightingforcesonthebestpossible
footinggoingforward.ItsverytruethattheUkrainianarmedforces,evenafterseveralroundsofreforms,arenotinparticularly
goodshape,andbysomeaccountstheyarestillriddledwithRussianspies.Butthatonlymeansthatthefixeswontbeeasynot
thattheyshouldnotbeattempted.
Yes,Putinwillprobablyrespond,andtherewillbeanescalationladder.PeaceniksinEuropewillbeoutinlargenumbers,
bankrolledinpartbyMoscow,astheyhavebeeninthepast.EUcapitalswillhardlybeinclinedtoconfrontationfromtheget-go.
Wellneedtohorsetrade,andthiswillincludehelpingEuropeanswiththeirmigrationcrises.Butnottakingthisopportunitytobuild
upUkrainesdefensecapacitieswouldbeastrategicblunderofthefirstorder.Ourapproachhastobethestuffofalonggame.
Ukrainiansknowthis,andappeartobereadyforit.Wemustntleavethemhanging.
Third,intherealmofideasandintheinformationwar,itsimperativethatwestopfrettingabouthowwerespondtoRussian
propaganda.Here,too,letsfocusonouragendaandonthenarrativeswewanttoadvance.Putinispopular,orsoitssaid.So
wasMussolini,foratime.ThewaytodeflateRussiasmalignnationalismistoendPutinsstringofperceivedvictoriesGeorgia,
Ukraine,Syria,andotherinstanceswherehethumbshisnoseattheWestandshowRussianswhatitlookslikewhenapetty
tyrantgoesonalosingstreak.AndwemustgetRussianstalkingtoRussiansaboutallofthis.Letsnurtureourtiesnotonlyto
RussianliberalsbutalsomoreimportantlytoRussiannationalists,whomaywellinduecourseturnagainstPutinandconsidera
morepragmaticapproachintheirrelationswiththeWest.
Letslookforcleavages.LetsdrivewedgesinMr.Putinsrulingclass.Itswhatabroadcoalitionofanti-CommunistRussian
broadcastersworkingforRadioLibertydidbrilliantlyduringtheColdWar.Intheinformationspace,weneedtoworkwithour
Europeanallies.Ourjointeffortsrequiretheuseofmultipleplatformsweb,radio,television,socialmediaandcreativeand
compellingprogramming.(Takenote:PutinsRT,likeourveryownDonaldTrump,knowshowtoentertain.)Andwhenwerefully
prohibitedfromworkinginsidethecountry,asissuretohappeninduetime,letsgetbacktobeamingintoRussiafromtheoutside.
Fourth,speakingofnarratives,thesprawlingkleptocracyPutinpresidesovermaywellbetheAchillesheelofhisregime.
Corruptionisnotmerelyabyproductofhisauthoritarianism:KleptocracyisattheheartofhowthePutinistsystemgetsthings
done.ThepersonalenrichmentoftheKremlinleaderandofthoseclosesttohimneedstobedocumentedandfullyexposed.
RussiansneedtoknowtheextenttowhichPutinandhiscroniesarelootingtheircountryfinancially,culturally,andspiritually.
Andtogetthispiececompletelyright,weneedtotackletheWesternenablers,too:Putinandhisfellowkleptocratscanonlydo
whattheydobecauseWesternbanks,high-flyingrealestatefirmsinplaceslikeLondonandNewYork,andfinancialinstitutions
knowinglyhandledirtymoney.(Fulldisclosure:ImontheboardoftheKleptocracyInitiative,aprojectfundedandledbythe
publisherofTheAmericanInterest.)
Noneofthiscanhappenovernight.Andevenifwemanagetodeliver100percentonwhatIhaveoutlinedabove,therewillstill
beanimmenseamounttodotocontinueadvancingacoherentvisionforEuropeandtheMiddleEast.DealingwithPutinsRussia,
however,isanecessaryfirststepaclearingoftheheavybrush.
Inthesummerof1776,Washingtonwouldnothavehadaprayertoprevailhadhisfamousretreatnottakenplaceinthecontextof
alargervisionandplan.Togetwhereweneedtobe,wemustplaceourforeignpoliciesonceagaininalargerviewofthings.Ifwe
keepflounderingwithoutacompassoramaporaclueofwherewewanttoendupourendlessreactivetacticswillgrindus
downuntil,fortheWest,theresnothingbutconfusionanddisarrayleft.
JeffreyGedminisseniorfellowatGeorgetownUniversitySchoolofForeignService,asenioradviseratBlueStarStrategies,and
co-directoroftheTransatlanticRenewalProject.
From:jm200p<jm200p@mac.com>
Date:2015-10-2117:40GMT-04:00
Subject:TeamRussia:WorldPolice
To:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/team-russia-world-police/2015/10/20/f123b480-7748-11e5-a958-
d889faf561dc_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_opinions
Opinions
TeamRussia:WorldPolice
ResizeText
PrintArticle
Comments149
PresidentObama,right,andRussianPresidentVladimirPutinatU.N.headquartersin
September.(SergeyGuneyev/RIA-Novosti,KremlinPoolPhotoviaAssociatedPress)(Sergey
Guneyev/AP)
ByDavidIgnatiusOpinionwriterOctober20at8:23PM
ThegodfatherofRussiasmilitaryinterventioninSyriaisYevgenyPrimakov,aformerprimeministerand
intelligencechiefandfordecadeshisnationsleadingArabist.AhintofPrimakovsinfluenceonRussian
PresidentVladimirPutincameintheunusualeulogythatPutindeliveredathisfriendsfuneralinMoscow
fourmonthsago.
Primakovhadglobalvisionandwasopenandboldinhisthinking,Putintoldmourners.Byasserting
Russiasinterestsandpower,Primakovgotthecountrythroughaveryseriouscrisisafterthefallofthe
SovietUnion.HisunderstandingoftheMiddleEastwastremendous,andhisinfluencebeyondRussia
wasundeniable,Putinsaid.
Manyspokewithhim,soughthisadvice,sharedwithhimtheirplansandactions,Putinsaid.Icansay
thatthisappliesinfullmeasuretomyself,too.
PutinismovingwithadeterminationthatPrimakovwouldhaveadmiredbutmightalsohaveseenas
risky.BysendingRussianwarplanes,troopsandtankstoSyria,PutinhaslaunchedoneofRussias
boldestmilitarymovessince1945.HehasbeguntorestorePrimakovsdreamofRussianinfluenceinthe
Arabworld,butatacostofassumingtheburdenoffightingMuslimextremism,aneffortthathasbeenso
drainingfortheUnitedStates.
PrimakovsymbolizedtheideathatRussianpowerwasnotdeadinthepost-Sovietera,andthat
MoscowwasnotapermanentjuniorpartnertoWashington.Hisdefiningmomentcamein1999,whenas
primeministerheturnedaroundhisplaneonthewaytotheUnitedStatesandflewhomeafterlearning
thatNATOwouldbeinterveningmilitarilyinKosovo,againstRussianwishes.
Russianscalledthemid-AtlanticcoursereversalPrimakovsloop.ThemessagewasthatRussiamight
betooweaktostopU.S.militaryaction,butitwouldntmeeklysubmittoU.S.dictation.
ThenewspaperIzvestiapublishedaeulogyforPrimakovinJulythatstressedhisroleinassertingRussias
independenceanddignityinthosedaysofnationaldespair:Hemanagedtostopthishumiliatingslideof
Russiatowardthestatusofacountryinreceivership,andtoreformatourforeignpolicy,restoringhonor
anddecency.
PrimakovsspecialtywastheArabworld.HewasRussiaspremierhandlerofitstwochiefArabclients,
theAssadregimeinSyriaandSaddamHusseininIraq.
OverPrimakovscareer,whenU.S.powerintheMiddleEast,anchoredbyIsrael,wasontherise,a
moribundRussialostoneallyafteranother.ThisstartedwithitsexpulsionfromEgyptin1972and
continuedasregimesinIraqandLibyaweretoppled.
PutindecidedtostandhisgroundinSyria,asPrimakovprobablycounseled.Russiasinterventionthere
hasbeenadvancinginslowmotionformonths,butU.S.analystsseemtohavemisseditsmilitary
dimensionandconsequences.PresidentObamaandSecretaryofStateJohnF.Kerrywelcomedgreater
RussiandiplomaticinvolvementintheregionafterMoscowsgenerallyhelpfulroleintheIrannuclear
talks.TheyapparentlydidntanticipatethatRussiawouldseektobolsterSyrianPresidentBasharal-
Assadonthebattlefieldasapreludetoanydiplomacy.
Putinwashardlyambiguousabouthisintentions.HesaidinaSept.28speechtotheUnitedNations:It
isnowobviousthatthepowervacuumcreatedinsomecountriesoftheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica
ledtoemergenceofanarchyareas....Wethinkitisanenormousmistaketorefusetocooperatewith
theSyriangovernmentanditsarmedforces,whoarevaliantlyfightingterrorismface-to-face.
FortheUnitedStates,militaryinterventioninIraqwasawarofchoice.ButinPutinsmind,fightingthe
IslamicStateseemstobeanexistentialmatter,foraRussiawithalargeandgrowingMuslimpopulation.
IfRussiareallymeanstobetheenforceragainsttheIslamicState,thiscouldmeanafundamentalchange
inpowerrelationsintheMiddleEastwithRussiabiddingtobecomeprotectornotjustofAssadbut
ofaEuropethatisfrightenedaboutterrorism,refugeesandenergysupplies.
AttheUnitedNationsinSeptember,IraqiPrimeMinisterHaideral-AbadiaskedPutinifhewasserious
abouttakingonthejihadists.AccordingtoanIraqiofficial,Putinansweredthathewasseriousabout
dealingwiththethreatposedby2,000RussianswhohavejoinedtheIslamicState.
PrimakovdreamedaboutrevivingRussianpowerintheMiddleEastandglobally.Putinisnowdoingit,
anditsachange,fraughtwithdangerforRussiaandtheUnitedStatesboth,thatcouldalterthebalance
ofpowerintheregionandbeyond.
ReadmorefromDavidIgnatiussarchive,followhimonTwitterorsubscribetohisupdateson
Facebook.
From:MariusLaurinavicius<marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org>
Date:Wed,Oct21,2015at12:18AM
Subject:
To:MariusLaurinavicius<marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org>
Cc:
DearFriends,Colleagues,
IwouldliketosharewithyoumyfirsttwopiecesoftheseriesaboutPutinsultimategoalsasI
understandthem.
http://en.delfi.lt/centraleasterneurope/putinsrussiakremlinsgoalno1.d?id=69135920
http://en.delfi.lt/centraleasterneurope/putinsrussiawhatiskremlinactuallycapableof.d?
id=69321756
Incasesomeofyoumightconsiderthesearticlesworthtobedistributedfurther,pleasefindlinksto
themonmytwitter:
http://twitter.com/LitdelNATO/status/656461553361928192
Iwouldappreciateyouranyofyourfeedbackonthesearticles!

Bestwishes
Marius
From:YaroslavPylynskyi<ypylynskyi@gmail.com>
Date:2015-10-2114:48GMT-04:00
Subject:Re:P.Yaroslav.....Canyousendyour'stattya'again?Iseemtohavemisplacedit!
[ProperEducationCanHelpUkrainetoOvercomeCorruption]
...
,.
YaroslavPylynskyi
ProperEducationCanHelpUkrainetoOvercomeCorruption
Thewickedmantakesabribeinsecret
inordertopervertthecourseofjustice.
(Proverbs17:23)

Senttime: 10/17/201512:09:30AM
To: WarrenAnderson<Warren.Anderson@schwab.com>
Subject: youwon'tlikethisoneatall........
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13326091/1/jack-bogle-trump-is-wrong-etfs-are-bogus-and-foreign-inv
esting-is-useless.html?puc=_htmlttt_pla&cm_ven=EMAIL_htmlttt
From: teagueeliza@aol.com
Senttime: 10/17/201504:27:17AM
Subject: Fwd:Levadasurveyontheeconomy
-----OriginalMessage-----
From:PhilipHanson<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>
To:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
CC:rqbraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>r.connolly<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>BoboLo_uk<BoboLo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>
teagueeliza<teagueeliza@aol.com>Silvana.Malle<Silvana.Malle@univr.it>keith.bush017<keith.bush017@gmail.com>j.m.cooper
<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>WilsonKyle81<WilsonKyle81@gmail.com>
Sent:Sat,17Oct201512:20
Subject:Re:Levadasurveyontheeconomy
Thanks,Stephen.Iguesstherelationshipsbetweenanyonehousehold'sperceptionsoftheirownwelfareandthe
recentchangesintheirnation'sGDParealwaysgoingtobeabitmysterious,sincesomanyotherthings
intervene.Still,Ithinkit'sreasonablyclearthat,sofarasPutin'spersonalratingsareconcerned,rallying
roundtheflaghastrumpedeconomicgrumblessinceKrymnash.Maybetheeconomicsofhappinesscantellus
something.There'saschoolofthought,withsupportingeconometricevidence,thataverageself-reported
happiness,comparedacrosscountries,issignificantlyandpositivelyinfluencedbythelevelofpercapitaGDP
butonlyuptoabout$15,000perannum.Russiaisonabout$23Kinpurchasingpowerparitytermsatpresent
(IMF).SoabitofawobblearoundthatnumbermightnotstartletheRussianhorses.Unfortunately,thereis
anotherschoolofthought,alsowithsupportingeconometricevidence,thatsaysthere'snoupperlimittothe
positiveinfluenceofpercapGDPonhappiness,somaybeweshouldn'tlettheavailablescienceblindus.Phil
SentfrommyiPad>On17Oct2015,at00:09,StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>wrote:>>Russian
personalfinanceshavealwaysbeenatotalmysterytome-howmoneyappearsseeminglyfromnowherewhenthe
needarises.ThehusbandofoneofAlyona'srelativeslosthisjobrecently.Itwasn'tmuchofajob-inretail
-andIcan'timagineNadyamakesmuchasahairdresserworkingfromhome.Theyrecognizethatthisisa
seriousmatterandthatheneedstofindanewjobsoonerratherthanlater,andtheyhavesomesortof
understandingthathissituationisrelatedtoabiggerpicture.Butitdoesn'tseemtohavehadanyeffecton
theirlifestyle-indeedthey'vejustboughtablockoflandoutsideMoscow-ortheirviewofthewaythings
aregoinginthecountryasawhole,whichisprettystandardapathyof'thewholeplaceisgoingtothedogs,
butwhatelseisnew'variety.Butintermsoftheirowncircumstances,everythingisalwaysOK,'we'remanaging
fine.Yes,pricesaregoingup,butno,ithasn'treallyaffectedusmuch',andsoon.It'sthesamein
Zhazhlevo.Itdoesn'tmatterwhattheeconomicsituation-andit'saprettygrimpartoftheworld-everything
keepsgoingonthesame.It'snotquitetheproverbialRussiancapacitytosufferandtightenthebelt,orat
leastifitisit'simperceptibleandunacknowledged.>HavingsaidthatPutinandMedvedev'sratingsdidgo
downduringtheGFC,soispatriotismaffectingtheratingsandpreventing/postponingareactiontoeconomic
decline?Presumablyso,althoughit'snotobviousinthecaseofNadyaandIvan.>Formethekeythingisnot
justattitudestotheeconomicsituation,butattitudestowork.TheSovietUnioncollapsed(Idon'tknow
whetheroneshouldbelookingalwaystotheSovietUnionforcluesastowhatmighthappen,butit'sallIknow)
notjustbecausepeoplegotdisillusioned,butalsobecausetheysimplyandtotallystoppedworking.Idon't
thinktheyhavethatdesireoroptioninRussiatoday,andindeedthesystemprobablyhassomecapacityto
squeezeimprovedproductivityoutofthem,somethingthelateSovietUniondidnothave-partofthereservesI
mentioned.>Thisisallterriblyunscientific.Butitcontributestomygeneralviewthatintheshortterm
thingsarenotnearlyasapocalypticasisoftenmadeout,butthatinthelongtermRussiawillbenomoreable
tosustainthestatusintheworldthatitcravesthanithasinthepast.>Stephen>>SentfrommyiPad>>>
On16Oct2015,at20:00,PHILIPHANSON<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>wrote:>>>>Thanks,Stephen.Iagreethat
MinFinisalwaysgloomy,andthatinmanysensesRussiahaseconomicreserves.Iwouldaddthatpeoplearenow
substantiallybetteroffthantheywereadecadeago,nevermindtwodecadesago,andthatmustprovidea
cushionsofarasperceptionsofeconomictroubleareconcerned(eventhoughthenumbersbelowtheofficial
povertyline,afterfallingforyears,areedgingupagain).Butwithaveragerealwagesrunningabout9%down
year-on-year,youmightexpectabitmoremoaningandcomplainingthanthereis.Onreservesinthenarrowest
sense,thedraftbudgetplanfornextyear(OK,MinFinagain)includesdrawingdownR2.13trnfromtheReserve
Fund,andthatfundstoodatRR4.67trn(6.4%ofGDP)atthebeginningofthismonth.Financialmarketsare
morespookedbythingslikethatthan--apparently--Levadasurveyrespondentsare.>>>>Phil>>>>Professor
PhilipHanson>>AssociateFellow,RussiaandEurasiaProgramme>>ChathamHouse>>RoyalInstituteof
InternationalAffairs>>>>phone:+44-(0)1305-266703>>----Originalmessage---->>From:
s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>>Date:16/10/2015-00:19(GMTDT)>>To:phil_hanson@btinternet.com>>Cc:
j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk,Silvana.Malle@univr.it,BoboLo_uk@yahoo.co.uk,rqbraithwaite@mac.com,
teagueeliza@aol.com,keith.bush017@gmail.com,WilsonKyle81@gmail.com,r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>>Subject:Re:
Levadasurveyontheeconomy>>>>AlyonaandIweretalkingaboutthislastnight.She'dbeenlisteningtoan
EkhoMoskvyphoneinontheeffectsofthecrisis,andshewasstruckbyhowlittlesenseofcrisistherewasin
theresponses,andasalwayswecan'tfindanyoneamongourfriendsandrelations-whocomefromallsocial
classesandeconomiccircumstances-whofeelthatthingsaretoughorparticularlyworsethantwelvemonths
ago.>>EverythingaboutRussiaisaneternalriddle,sowhyshouldtheeconomybeanydifferent?Myviewisthe
Russianeconomyatalllevelshasenormousreserves,becauseitissoinefficient.MinFinconstantlyexaggerates
howbadthingsarefirmsandhouseholdsadjust,almostwithoutnoticing,byabitofscrimpinghereand
scrapingthere.Soifnooneisseriouslyfeelingthepain,whyshouldtheybecriticalofpolicymaking?>>
Whetherthatmeansthatwe-orPutin-shouldbeoptimisticorpessimisticaboutthefuture,Ihavenoidea.>>
Stephen>>>>SentfrommyiPad>>>>>On16Oct2015,at00:46,PHILIPHANSON<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>
wrote:>>>>>>Incasenotseenandofinterest>>>http://www.levada.ru/12-10-2015/ekonomika-i-potreblenie>>>
>>>Idon'tkeeptrackofthesesurveysinanyregularway.PerhapsforthatreasonI'mmoresurprisedthanI
shouldbebythefollowing.>>>>>>The%ofrespondentsintheSeptembersurveyattributingthecurrentcrisis
mainlyorinparttointernalfactorsis62but(a)the%choosing'badly'asthereplytothequestionhowthey
thinkeconomicpolicyhasbeenperformingisamuchmoremodest37(mostplumpfor'averagely')and(b)that37%
issubstantiallylowerthaninsurveyresponsesintheearly2000sor,forexample,inAugust2011,whenitwas
47%.Inotherwords,theeconomyisinworseshapethaninthoseearlieryearsbutthepopularviewofeconomic
policy-making,itseems,islesscritical.>>>>>>Doesthisreflectanastutepopularappreciationofwhatthe
policy-makersareupagainst?Orsomethingelse?>>>>>>Phil>>>>>>>>>ProfessorPhilipHanson>>>Associate
Fellow,RussiaandEurasiaProgramme>>>ChathamHouse>>>RoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairs>>>>>>
phone:+44-(0)1305-266703>>

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