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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.

edu>
Senttime: 01/25/201608:53:39AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"LitvinenkokillerslefttrailofradiationaftervisittoBRITISHEMBASSY[inMoscow]topleadinnocence,"telegraph.co.uk,1/24

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,January25,20168:53AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"LitvinenkokillerslefttrailofradiationaftervisittoBRITISHEMBASSY[inMoscow]topleadinnocence,"telegraph.co.uk,1/24

AseniordiplomatstationedattheBritishembassyinMoscow[PaulKNOTT]hastoldforthefirsttime
howAlexanderLitvinenkosassassinsleftatrailofPOLONIUMinthebuilding.

And:NicoHines,Britainwarnsallies:RussiasnextASSASSINATIONcouldbeonyourstreets,
thedailybeast.com,1/24

And:Russian2015industrialoutputfallsforthefirsttime[3.4%]in6years,themsocowtimes.com,
1/25

And:RealincomeforRussianswentdownby4%in2015,wagesdeclinedby9.5%,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2016/01/25/1483004.html

And:NospecialstatusforeastUkrainewithoutceasefire:President{POROSHENKO],Reuters,
news.yahoo.com,1/25

And:PACEsaysRussiamayresumeworkin2017,afterDUMAelection,unian.info,1/25

And:ZhannaNemtsova[daughterofBoris]asksPACEtobegintheinvestigationofthemurderofher
father,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/news/1699648.html?print=1

And:UkrainianMVD:AnadvisortoAvakovhasrelated[onFacebook]aboutarebellionintheKremlin
andthereasonsforthemurderofGRUheadSERGUN,
http://charter97.org/ru/news/2016/1/24/188269

UkrainianMVD:TheFSBkilledGeneralSergunbecausehewaspreparingacourtrebellion
[pridvornyibunt]andtheremovalofPutin.AfiercestruggleiscurrentlytakingplacebetweentheFSB
andGRUforleadershipandinfluence.TheDonbasisanintegralpartofthisstruggle.

And:OperationSuccessor,http://grani.ru/Society/People/Politicians/m.248028.html

LydmilaPutinahasreclaimedhermaidenname[Shkrebneva]andmarriedamanArturOchereretnyi
19yearsherjunior.

And:WiseManRobertGATES[formerheadofCIAandSecretaryofDefense]trashesDonald
TRUMP,doubtsObamasspunk,thedailybeast.com,1/25
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/22/201608:54:27AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondongteapart,"nytimes.com,1/22TheOpinionpages

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,January22,20168:54AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondongteapart,"nytimes.com,1/22TheOpinion
pages

Lastparagraph:Mr.Putinhasbuiltasordidrecordonjusticeandhumanrights,whichnaturally
reinforcessuspicionsthathecouldeasilyhavebeeninvolvedinthe[Litvinenko]murder.Atthevery
least,theLondoninquiry,howevermuchitisdeniedattheKremlin,shouldserveasaCAUTIONtothe
Russianleadertorepairhisreputationfornotoriousintriguesabroad.

And:KERRY[atDavos]sayseffortandgoodfaith[!]couldleadtoliftingofSANCTIONSonRussia[in
thecomingmonths],reuters.com,1/22

And:RussianSANCTIONScouldbegoneinafewmonths,JohnKerrysays,
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/22/news/russiaukrainesanctionsjohnkerrydavos/

And:RussiapushingforanENDGAMEinUkraine,themoscowtimes.com,1/22

DetaileddiscussionoftheNulandSurkovbrainstormingsessionanditsimplications.

And:Ukrainianarmyreports69[!]strikesonitspositionsinDonbas[overthepastday],
http://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/690565240556253185

And:FinancialTimes:VladimirPutinproposedtoAssadthathegointoretirement,
http://www.newsru.com/world/22jan2016/offer_print.htmlPeskovhasdeniedtheFinancialTimes
report.

And:ThomasWright,TRUMPs19thcenturyforeignpolicy.Hisviewsarentasconfusedasthey
seem.Infacttheyreremarkablyconsistentandtheyhavealonghistory,
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donaldtrumpforeignpolicy213546?o=2

TheauthorexplainsthatTrump,theRepublicanfrontrunner,couldbeexpectedtogetalongverywell
withPutin.

And:KarinaORLOVA,ReplytoTonyaSamsonova,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1698520
echo/

SamsonovahaddefendedtheregimesassassinationofLitvinenko.TheUSandotherstatesdoit
whycantRussia?Orlova:Theresponsehereissimple.WhenBarakObamaordersBinLadenkilled
hedoesittotheheadofAlQaedawhichcarriedouttheterroristactof9/11Butwhatterroristact
didLitvinenkocommit?...WhatlawwasadoptedpermittingLitvinenkotobekilledwithinalegal
framework?

And:AleksandrSOLDATOV,Should[RussianOrthodox]BANKSexist?Andwhatdoesitsignifyifthese
bankshaveproblems?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71529.html?print=1

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 01/29/201602:12:56PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes29January2016
Attachments: IN29Jan16.docx

InternetNotes29January2016

PavlovskiyEkhoMoskvyinterview(TheLitvinenkomurderWhatmakesthesystemcorrupt?AllegationsofPutins
corruptionKadyrovTheKremlinteamitselfshouldplanforalong-termpowertransition)

BelkovskiyonPutinswealth

Peskov:TheUSisconductingasmearcampaignagainstPutin

Rublerallieswithoilupabit(OPEC,Russia,andoilproduction)

Theupsideofadownruble?

TheNemtsovinvestigationiscomplete

PavlovskiyEkhoMoskvyinterview(TheLitvinenkomurderWhatmakesthesystemcorrupt?AllegationsofPutins
corruptionKadyrovTheKremlinteamitselfshouldplanforalong-termpowertransition)

http://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/1701234-echo/

Pavlovskiysays,regardingtheOwenreportsassertingPutinandPatrushevprobablyhadsomethingtodowithLitvinenkos
murder(Seethe25and26Januarynotes),well,whoknows?TheNemtsovmurderwasnotaverticalstateoperationitwas
donebyamixedprivate-stategroup.Itwasastateoperationinthesensethatstateofficialswereinvolved.Therewasnoproof
otherwise,whichwouldrequirefurtherinvestigation.Themainargumentinfavorofthereportsassertionisthecostand
complicationinvolvedinusingpolonium.

Thissystemisbasedonthepurchaseandre-saleofauthority,whichiswhyitsacorruptsystem,notbecausesomeonetakes
bribessoPavlovskiysayshewouldnotbesurprisediftheconspiracyinthekillingofLitvinenkowasnotunlikethatinthecaseof
Nemtsov.

Hehasdoubtsaboutwhetheritwasastaterunspecialoperation.Asfarasheknows,allspecialservicescommitassassinations
beyondtheirownterritories,especiallyinthecaseofdoubleagentsbutLitvinenko,hehadalreadydoneallhecoulddo,he
didnthaveanyinformation.AndLugovoyandKovtunwereknown.Foraspecialservicesoperation,itlookedincompetent.An
operationlikethisthrowsashadowonPutinandtheKremlinshouldbeinterestedinacompleteinvestigation.
Asfarasincompetenceandthevertical,thereisntanyvertical,justatradeinfulfillingassignmentsamonggroups,atrade
financedbybudgetmoney,andtheassignmentsareeitherfulfilledornot
OntheallegationsofcorruptionagainstPutinweveheardthisbefore.TheysaidGorbachevbuiltapalaceaswell.Weshould
becautiousinassessingtheseclaims.Wearetalkingaboutstatepropertythatwasconvertedtoprivateproperty.Private
billionairesmakemoney,peopleinthestateuseproperty.Soatsomepoint,youhavetodecidebetweenvlast(andusingits
resources)andmoney.TheresnobodyinPutinscirclewhodoesntmakeuseoftheirproximitytothepresidentforcommercial
reasons.AndPutindoesnthaveadifferentmethodforachievinghisobjectives.
Serdyukovwasagoodexample.Heconductedacampaignaimedatmodernizingthearmyandheusedcorruptmethodsto
proceed.Histeamwasallowedtomakeoffwithstatefunds,buthecontrolledthemsothattheywoulddosomething.The
questionforPutinisDoeshecontrolhispeoplesothattheywillactuallydosomething?
OnKadyrovtherecentmassmeetinginGroznywasdoneonlocalinitiativeandprobablyirritatedtheKremlin.TheGrozny
demonstrationwasntsomuchaimedattheliberalsasitwasatstateofficials.Andtheydidntlikeit.Buttheycouldntsayso
directlybecausePutinhaspraisedKadyrovsfatherandspokenofthesonseffectiveness(Seethe26Januarynotes).
Pavlovskiysayshecanimaginethat,underthepresentcircumstances,certaingroupswillcometotheKremlinanddemandmoney
groupswhohadsomethingtodowiththeDonbass,forinstance.Peoplewithconnections.PeoplearespeakingupYakunin,
forexample.Gref,yes,thoughhessomethingofajokester.Therewillbebusinessgroupsthatwilldeclaretheirinterestsinthe
contextofconcernsaboutthecrisis,thestateofthecountry.Problemis,theKremlinislosingtheinitiative.Itcouldseizethe
initiativeandsettheagenda,buttheresnobody,muchlessintheKremlinentourage,whocantalkaboutwhattheyseehappening.
NobodyinthesuperconspiratorialKremlincandiscusswhatsactuallyhappeninginthecountry.TheKremlinteamitselfshould
leadalongtermpowertransitionprojectthroughdemocraticmeans.
SodoesthecurrentKremlinentouragebelieveinlifeafterPutin?Orevenhopeforit?PavlovskiyrepliesthatPutindoesnothave
anyanswershecantofferanewagenda.HecantsolveanythingforRosneftorforRosnano.*ButpredictingPutinsdecisions
isharderthanpredictingoilpricesThecollectiveguiltofthecurrentteamisthattherehavebeennoprinciplesforstate
construction.Whatsneedednowarestateinstitutions.Itsnecessarytoraisetaxes(thatandtogivethepopulationachanceto
makemoney),butPutinwontdothatbecausehewantstoprotecthisrating,whichhasbecomeacult.Youhavetogive
opportunitiestoacttothosewhoarecapableofdoingsomething.AndtheKremlin,whiletheregimeisstillstable(andinspiteof
whatalotpfpeoplethink,itsnotgoingtocomeaparttomorrow)shouldbegintheprojectofalongterm,strategictransferof
powertothepeopleofRussia.
Thepeoplewillhavetogetreadyforthat.Itsdifficultwork,butapathothershavetaken.

*DvorkovichhassaidthatRosnanoandSkolkovocouldbedisbanded,dependingonevaluationsoftheireffectiveness:
http://government.ru/news/21544/

BelkovskiyonPutinswealth

Comment:IwonderedtheotherdayaboutwhetherBelkovskiyhadeverchangedhis$40billionestimateofPutins
wealth(Seethe27Januarynotes).AreaderremindedmethathehadatonetimesayingPutinsassetshad
increasedinvaluetoperhaps$70billion(Thatwasin2012:http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2012/04/19/putin-the-richest-
man-on-earth/),thenhegaveanotherestimateof$100billion(In2013:http://www.echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/1012026-
echo/#element-text).Heneverhassaidanything,tomyknowledge,abouttheimpactoftherubledevaluationonthose
assets,however.

Peskov:TheUSisconductingasmearcampaignagainstPutin
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/peskov-says-us-running-putin-smear-campaign-before-2018-
elections/557538.html

PresidentVladimirPutinsspokesmanDmitryPeskovhassuggestedthatrecentcommentsmadebyU.S.government
officialsabouttheRussianpresidentispartofasmearcampaignintherun-uptothe2018Russianpresidentialelections,
InterfaxreportedFriday.Seethe26and27Januarynotes.

Thepresidentialelectionsareonthehorizonanditseemsthat[U.S.]preparationshavealreadystarted,Peskovsaid.

JournalistsaskedPeskovwhetherthissignalsthatPutinwillstandasapresidentialcandidateintheupcomingelection.

Totalkaboutourelections,whichwilltakeplacetwoyearsfromnow,isunheardof,wedontevenknowyetwhether
Putinhastheintentiontostandornot,butasmearcampaignhasalreadybegun,Peskovreplied.

PeskovalsorespondedtojournalistsquestionsaboutrecentcommentsbyU.S.officialswhichdescribedPutinas
corrupt.

PeskovsaidthatU.S.presidentialelectioncandidatesuseissuesaboutRussiaandPutinfortheirowngain.

HeclaimedthathewouldlosehisjobifhemadesimilarstatementsabouttheU.S.president.

Rublerallieswithoilupabit(OPEC,Russia,andoilproduction)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/oil-price-rally-gives-respite-to-russian-ruble/557544.html
TheRussianrublehasstrengthenedsharplyinrecentdaysasanoilpricerallyeasedthepressureontheeconomyofthe
world'slargestenergyexporter.

ByFridaymidafternoontherublewastradingataround76totheU.S.dollarmorethantenpercentstrongerthanon
Jan.21whenthecurrencyreached85.99tothegreenback,itsworstsincesince1998.

Therublehasfollowedmovementsintheoilprice,whichrosesharplythisweekonnewsthatRussiamaynegotiate
outputcutswithOPEC,*theoilproducers'cartel,toeasetheoversupplyonglobalmarketsandliftthecostofcrude.

Brentoil,theglobalbenchmark,soldforaround$35perbarrelonFriday,upfromlessthan$28atthestartoftheweek.
Russia'sbudgetreliesontheenergyindustryforaroundhalfitsrevenueandisbasedonanaveragepriceof$50per
barrelthisyear.

However,DeputyPrimeMinisterArkadyDvorkovichonFridayplayeddownthelikelihoodofacoordinatedcuttooil
production,whichcouldstallanypricerecovery.

Reutersnewsagencyquotedhimassaying:"Wetakethepositionthatouroilsectoris,toasignificantextent,private,
andiscommerciallyminded,itisnotunderthedirectcontrolofthestate.Ourmarketisgovernedbythedecisionsof
individualcompanies,andthatishowitwillcontinue."

TheCentralBanklastyearwarnedthatifoilaveraged$35perbarreloverthisyeartheeconomywouldshrinkby2-3
percent.

Separately,theCentralBankonFridayhelditskeyinterestrateat11percent,citinganincreasedriskofinflation.The
rubleonFridaywasstillaround4percentweakerthanatthestartofJanuary,raisingthecostofimportsandfuelingprice
rises.

*http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-28/opec-delegates-say-no-plan-for-
meeting-after-russia-floats-talks

OPECdelegatessaidtheyhavenomeetingplannedwithRussiaafterthecountrysEnergy
MinisterAlexanderNovakindicatedhewaswillingtomeetwiththegroupnextmonthto
coordinateoil-outputpolicy.

FourOPECrepresentativessaidtheyhadntheardofanyplanfortalks.OneGulfmembersaidde
factoleaderSaudiArabiahadnoproposaltotrimproductionby5percent,afterInterfaxreported
thecountryhadsuggestedsuchacutatpreviousOPECmeetings,citingNovak.Theminister
saidRussiawouldbewillingtodiscussoutputwithOPEC,accordingtothenewsservice.

"ItspossiblethatRussiacouldbetestingthewaterstogaugehowOPECmemberswouldrespond
totheideaofcuts,"saidJasonBordoff,directoroftheCenteronGlobalEnergyPolicyatColumbia
UniversityandaformersenioroilofficialattheWhiteHouse.

BrentoilonThursdayroseasmuch8.3percentafterNovakscommentswerereportedbefore
paringitsadvancetocloseat$33.89abarrel,athree-weekhigh.PricesonFridayextendedgains,
rising1.4percentto$34.36asof1:23p.m.HongKongtime.
Untilthisweek,Russia,whichreliesonenergyformorethan40percentofitsbudgetrevenue,had
repeatedlystateditsgoalofkeepingcrudeproductionstableevenaspricestumble.Still,this
monthspriceslumptoa12-yearlowhasputthecountryunderincreasingfinancialpressure.The
FinanceMinistrysaysthenationsbudgetdeficit,alreadyatafive-yearhighin2015,maywiden
thisyearastheroutdeepens.

TherearesignificantobstaclesinthewayofanagreementwiththeOrganizationofPetroleum
ExportingCountries.SaudiArabiaiskeentodefendmarketshareandRussiasinabilitytocut
productioninwintermonthsmakescoordinationdifficult.Russiasoiloutputissettoreachapost-
Sovietrecordof10.89millionbarrelsadayinJanuary,accordingtoBloombergcalculationsbased
onEnergyMinistrydata.

ThetwocountriesopposingviewsonSyria,whereRussiaisPresidentBasharAl-Assadsclosest
allyandSaudiArabiaseekshisremoval,presentanotherdiplomaticobstacle.

KhalidAl-Falih,thechairmanofstateenergyproducerSaudiArabianOilCo.,signaledlastweekin
Davos,Switzerland,thatthekingdomwouldpersistwithitspolicyofmaintainingproduction.
Globaloilmarketsareintheprocessofre-balancingandapricerecoveryisinevitable,hesaid.

RussiasNovaksaidThursdayinSt.PetersburgthatSaudiproposalsforacutofasmuch
as5percentatpreviousOPECmeetingsrelatedtocrude-producingnationsingeneral,not
focusingonRussia,Interfaxreported.

WhenaskedifthatproposalremainsforaproposedmeetingwithOPECinFebruary,hedeclined
tocomment,saying,thatisexactlythesubjectofdiscussion.OPECsnextscheduledmeetingis
inJune.

WiththeorganizationeffectivelyabandoningitsoutputceilinginDecember,Russiapumpingat
recordlevelsandU.S.shalefieldsprovingmoreresilientthanforecast,theglobalsurplushas
continuedtoswellandpriceshavecontinuedtofall.


Theupsideofadownruble?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/the-upside-of-a-down-ruble/557079.htmlPresidentVladimirPutinchose
anunfortunatetimetotrumpetthe"additionalopportunities"forRussiancompaniesarisingfromaweakerruble.

AshespoketodelegatesatabusinessforumonJan.20,theRussiancurrencywasgyratingwildly.Thenextdayit
plummetedtoitslowestlevelinrecenthistory,losing4percentagainsttheU.S.dollarandthenregainingitinthespace
ofafewhours.Ataround76rublestothegreenback,theRussiancurrencyis4percentweakerthanatthestart
ofJanuary,anditsvaluehashalvedinlessthantwoyears.

Thedramaticdevaluationisusuallyseenasacalamity.Drivenbyasharpfallinoilprices,ithasmassivelyraised
thecostofanythingimportedfromoverseas,fuelinginflationandleavingmostRussianssignificantlyworseoff.

Intheory,Putincouldberightthataweakrublealsoprovideseconomicupsides.Aweakercurrencyshouldmake
Russiangoodsandservicesvastlymorecompetitivebothathomeandabroad.Thiscouldelectrifysectorsofthe
Russianeconomy.Butalackofcashforinvestmentanduncertaintyaboutthecountry'sfuturearegettingintheway.

TheweakerrublehastransformedRussia'stradewiththerestoftheworld.Russianimportsfellby$107billion,or37.7
percent,overJanuary-Novemberlastyearcomparedwiththesameperiodin2014,accordingtodatafromtheRosstat
statestatisticsservice.

AdropinimportsshouldbegoodnewsforRussiancompanies,allowingthemtostepintovacatingmarkets.Butwithreal
wagesshrinking,Russiansareconsumingless.Russianmoneytoinvestinnewproductioncapacityisinshortsupply
duetotherecessionandhighinterestrates.AndWesternfinancialsanctionsonRussiaoveritsactionsinUkrainesaw
foreigndirectinvestmentplummet92percentin2015,accordingtoUNstatistics.

Muchoftheequipmentneededtoincreasecapacityhastobeboughtfromoverseasatprohibitivelyhighprices.Andthe
ruble'sextremevolatility"makesitdifficulttotakedecisions,"saidDmitryPolevoi,chiefeconomistatINGbank.

FoodproducershaveextraincentivetoincreaseproductionfollowingRussia'sretaliatorybanonimportsofmany
Westernproducts,andoutputoffoodsincludingmeatandcheesegrewlastyear.Butthegrimeconomicoutlookstill
weighs.AU.S.businessman,whorequestedanonymity,saiddemandhadincreased,buthewasonlycautiously
expandinghisbakedgoodscompany,"notknowingwherethingsaregoingtogo."

Theweakrubleisn'thelpingyet,saidPolevoi.Potentialbenefitswouldappearonly"inthemediumtolongterm,"he
added.

Russiashouldbeabletoprofitfromexportsthathavebecomecheaperforforeignmarketssuchasweapons,rockets,
cars,naturalresourcesandgrain.Butcashinginquicklyhasproveddifficult.

Takethecarmarket.ThepriceofaRussian-madeLadaGrantasedanindealershipsstartsfromaround350,000rubles.
Inearly2014,thatwas$10,000.Now,itis$4,500ahyper-competitivepricefornearbyEurope.

Butcarscannotberolledovertheborderimmediately,saidVladimirBespalov,ananalystatVTBCapital,aRussianbank.
Timeandinvestmentwouldbeneededtolocatelocalpartnersandrampupdistributionandpromotion,butthatplan
wouldrequire2-3yearstocomplete,hesaid,duringwhichtherublecouldeasilystrengthenandwipeouttheLada'sprice
advantage.

Similarly,cheaperlaborhasreducedcostsforproducersofRussiancommoditiessuchasoil,grainsandmetals.But
newinvestmentisstrangledbysanctions.
Russia'smostdevelopedexportmarketformerSovietstatesisalsointheeconomicdoldrums.Oilproducers
KazakhstanandAzerbaijanhavesufferedfromthefallingpriceofcrude.CountrieslikeBelarusandKyrgyzstanare
closelytiedtoRussia'seconomyandhaveslumpedwithit.SanctionshaveeffectivelycutoffUkraine.

Russianarmsexportswortharound$15billionin2014havebeenhamperedbyWesternembargoes.Butpotential
buyerslikeVenezuelaandIranhavealsobeenhamstrungbylowoilpricesandarenolongerabletosplurge
onweaponry.

Inanycase,"theexportofarmsisdeterminedprimarilybypoliticalfactors"ratherthancostofproduction,saidMikhail
Barabanov,ananalystattheCenterforAnalysisofStrategiesandTechnologies.

Therealquickbeneficiaryoftheweakerrublehasbeentourism.Companiesinthetourismindustryhaveseenrevenues
increaseby30percentoverthepast18months,saidDmitryGorin,vicepresidentoftheRussianAssociationofTour
Operators.

Russiahasbecomefantasticallycheapforforeigners.Almost20percentmoreofwhomvisitedRussiain2015than
in2014drivenbyanincreaseinvisitorsfromChina,Gorinsaid.

Meanwhile,moreRussiansarestayinghome.Thoseholidayingabroadtumbledbyone-thirdin2015and7millionfewer
peopleboughtpackagetours.StillfewerRussianswilllikelyholidayabroadthisyear.Russianauthoritieshaverestricted
salesoftourstoTurkeyandEgyptwhichhostedhalfofallRussiantouristsandnoteveryonecanaffordtovisit
popularbutincreasinglyexpensivedestinationsinMediterraneancountriesorThailand.

Butwhilethegrowthisaboontothelocaltourismindustry,someRussiansmightbelesspleased.

AquarterofRussianspolledafterholidayinginRussiasaytheydidnotliketheexperience,accordingtoGorin.Rather
thanswitchtodomestictravel,manyprefertowaitandsaveuponweakrublestogoabroad,headded.

TheNemtsovinvestigationiscomplete

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-investigation-into-nemtsov-death-ends-5-men-charged/557535.html
RussianinvestigatorshavecompletedtheirinvestigationintofivemenaccusedofkillingofoppositionpoliticianBoris
NemtsovoutsidetheKremlinlastyear,pavingthewayfortheirtrial.

TheInvestigativeCommitteeinanonlinestatementonFridaysaidfiveChechenmenhadbeenchargedoverthemurder,
whichshockedtheworldandsentachilldownthespineofRussia'sliberalopposition.

ThemenZaurDadayev,AnzorGubashev,ShadidGubashev,TemerlanEskerkhanovandKhamzatBakhayevare
accusedofcommittingthemurderaspartofanorganizedgroupandillegallypurchasing,carrying,transportingand
storingfirearms.Asixthsuspect,BeslanShavanov,blewhimselfupwhilebeingdetainedinChechnyalastyear,the
statementsaid.

Thecollectedevidencewillnowbesenttodefenselawyersforthemen,allofwhomdenythecharges.

Thecommitteesaiditwascontinuingtoinvestigatethemanwhoitsaysorderedthehit,RuslanMukhidinov.Mukhidinov,a
27-year-oldformerofficerofaChechenpolicebattalion,isontherunandthereisaninternationalwarrantforhisarrest,
butNemtsov'slawyerVadimProkhorovhasquestionedwhetherhewasreallybehindthemurder,andsaidtherealculprit
waslikelyhigheruptheRussianpowerstructure.

Nemtsov,aformerPrimeMinisterunderBorisYeltsininthe1990s,wasgunneddowninanighttimehit-and-runattack
whilecrossingMoscowsBolshoiMoskvoretskyBridgeinFebruarylastyear.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/24/201604:01:18PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[From"VladtheCommonCorroder"to"VladimirTsarofCorruption".....inState&Church]BBC/JohnSweeney/U-TUBE:AlexeiNavalny:
Subject:
'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'......Guardian/WillHutton:Litvinenko'smurdershowswhyPutin'sRUwillneverpros...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,January24,20167:48AM
Subject:Fwd:[From"VladtheCommonCorroder"to"VladimirTsarofCorruption".....inState&Church]BBC/JohnSweeney/U-TUBE:
AlexeiNavalny:'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'......Guardian/WillHutton:Litvinenko'smurdershowswhyPutin'sRUwillneverpros...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Jan24,2016at10:42AM
Subject:Fwd:[From"VladtheCommonCorroder"to"VladimirTsarofCorruption".....inState&Church]BBC/John
Sweeney/U-TUBE:AlexeiNavalny:'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'......Guardian/WillHutton:Litvinenko'smurdershowswhy
Putin'sRUwillneverprosper.......[OL]WhateverHappenedtotheRUOrthodoxChurchNewLinefromMoscow:Litvinenko
wasaTraitor&DeathwasJustPunishment
To:

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Jan24,2016at10:41AM
Subject:[From"VladtheCommonCorroder"to"VladimirTsarofCorruption".....inState&Church]BBC/JohnSweeney/U-
TUBE:AlexeiNavalny:'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'......Guardian/WillHutton:Litvinenko'smurdershowswhyPutin'sRUwill
neverprosper.......[OL]WhateverHappenedtotheRUOrthodoxChurchNewLinefromMoscow:LitvinenkowasaTraitor&
DeathwasJustPunishment
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:GBU
Date:2016-01-247:34GMT-05:00
Subject:TWOFROMUKONPUTINASTSAROFCORRUPTION
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_Fp85WX5qQ
AlexeiNavalny:'PutinistheTsarofcorruption'
23January2016Lastupdatedat00:30GMT

Thestate-sponsoredassassinationofAlexanderLitvinenkoraisesquestionsaboutlawandorderinRussia.

OnemanwhoisanexpertonthissubjectisRussianoppositionactivistandbloggerAlexeiNavalny,whohasseveralshort
spellsinprisonunderhisbelt.
Hisbrother,Oleg,isinjailnow,on,criticssay,trumped-upchargesasapoliticalhostage.

MrNavalnyhasspokentoBBCNewsnight'sJohnSweeneyaboutLitvinenko,hisownfighttofreeRussiafromcorruption,
andwhetheritisworththerisk.

AlexanderLitvinenko

Opinion

LitvinenkosmurdershowswhyPutinsRussiawill
neverprosper

WillHuttonKEYITEMTONOTE:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lubyanka_Criminal_Group

MoscowcannevercreateaGoogle,anApple,aBBC,aSiemens:forthat,itwouldneedtheruleoflawandall
theopendemocraticstructuresthatsupportit

Litvinenko'probablymurderedonpersonal
ordersofPutin'

Readmore

SirRobertOwenslanguidupper-classvowelsandbaggyLondonclublandsuitdontcapturethe
indefatigableessenceoftheman.HerepresentsthebestoftheBritishtraditionoftheruleoflaw.
HisreportintothecircumstancesofthedeathofAlexanderLitvinenkoreleasedlastweekisa
classicofthegenrescrupulouslyevidence-based,impartialandjudicious.Itiswhatarule-of-law
societyshouldproduce.

Litvinenko,Owenjudged,wasmurderedinLondonbytheRussiangovernmentbecause,asanex-
KGBagent,andlaterofFSB(theKGBssuccessor),hehadbecomeaninfluential,vocaland
effectiveopponentofaprofoundlycorruptstatesecuritystructure.AbookbyLitvinenko
LubyankaCriminalGrouppresentedevidencethattheRussiansecurityserviceisdeeply
entwinedwithorganisedcrime,bothinRussiaandelsewhereinEurope,includingwiththemafia.
Inasecond,iflessconvincing,bookheclaimedthattheRussianservicescolludedinblowingup
apartmentblocksandblamedChechenterrorists.

AfterfleeingRussiain2000,LitvinenkohadgoneontohelpnotjustBritainsMI6,butthe
SpanishandItaliansecurityservicesinunmaskingFSBinvolvementincriminalactivity.

ButitwasonlyafterRussiaspassingofthe2006ExtremismLaw,justifyingextra-territorial
killingsofRussiansmakingallegedlylibellousstatementsaboutthegovernment,thatVladimir
Putinwasabletohitbackatamanwho,daysbeforehewaspoisoned,hadaccusedhimofbeing
bothapaedophileandthemanbehindtheassassinationofthejournalistAnnaPolitkovskya.

Owenisjudicious.Thepolonium-210thatpoisonedLitvinenkocouldonlycomefromastate
nuclearreactorandcouldonlybegiventotheFSBwiththego-aheadofPutinorhiscircle.So
strongistheback-coveringculturewithintheFSBthatthedirectorwouldonlygivethego-ahead
forhisarms-lengthoperativestokillLitvinenkowithPutinsbacking.Theneedtogetridof
Litvinenkowasacute.ButunabletointervieweitherofthetwomenwhotravelledtoLondon
allegedlytomurdertheirquarry,Owencanarriveatonlyaqualifiedconclusion:TheFSB
operationtokillMrLitvinenkowasprobablyapprovedbyPresidentPutin.

TheeventsarehorrifyingenoughanyLondonercouldhavebeenharmedbutperhapseven
moretellingisthewindowitprovidesintotodaysRussia.Thisisaworldofroutinecontract
killings,alwaysdeniablebecausetheyaredeliveredatarmslength,byastatesecurityservice
intertwinedwithclandestinegangsters.

TheKGBwasthesecuritywingoftheSovietCommunistparty.TheFSBisPutinspersonalised
securitywing.Itsjobistowreckthereputationsandevenkillallthosewhochallengethe
regime.NotevenChinamandatesthekillingofitsnationalsanywhereintheworldiftheysay
somethingthatPresidentXiJinpingconsiderslibellous.Thisisthelawnotevenofacommunist
dictatorship,butofatsar.ThereactiontoLitvinenkosdeathinMoscowwascarelesslygleeful:a
traitorhadreceivedhisjustcomeuppance.

MainstreamToryismismorePutinesquethatitcarestoadmitandourcivilsocietycan
beasvulnerableasRussias

OwensbriefbiographiesofthekeyactorsinthedramaarealsotellingtheyarefierceRussian
nationalistspassionatetoavengewhattheyportrayascumulativeslightsfromthewest.Concepts
suchastheruleoflaw,checkedandbalancedgovernment,democracyandanautonomous,self-
governingcivilsocietyarewesternvirusesthatwillonlycontaminatethehomelandandits
capacitytodowhatitneedstoextendRussiasproperplaceintheworld.Inthisclimate,theFSB
workswithanytooltohand.

Theruleoflawimpartialjudgmentsthatcanbereferredtoindependenthighercourtsbasedon
thebalanceofevidencearoundclearjurisprudentialprinciplesanddeliberativelylegislated
democraticlawisthecornerstonenotmerelyofliberty,butofprosperityandourcivilisation.
Britainisblessedbecauseitisarule-of-lawsociety.Russia,forallitsmilitarypowerandabundant
resources,isdamnedbecauseitisnot.

Russiacanusecommand-and-controleconomicstocreateaGazprom.Itcannevercreatea
Google,anApple,aBBC,aSiemensoreventheAnglo-Saxonrocknrollculture.Forthat,itwould
needtheruleoflawandalltheopendemocraticstructuresthatsupportit.Thegrowingevidenceis
thateconomiessuchasRussiasorChinascanusecommand-and-controlmechanismstogrow
intomiddle-incomeperheadcountries.Buttobecomehigh-incomepercapitacountriesis
infinitelyharder.Alltheenergiesofcivilsocietyandworkforceshavetobeharnessedtocreate
greatself-standingorganisations.These,bydevelopingtheirownpurposeandcultures,can
marshaltheimmenseamountsofinformationthatareatthecoreofthemoderneconomyand
thenproduceatscale.

Thestoriesyouneedtoread,inonehandy
email

Readmore

Yet,wecantbecomplacent:currentBritishpoliticalcultureisveryfeebleontheruleoflaw.There
wasaLitvinenkoinquiryonlybecausethegovernmentlostahighcourtcaseopposingit,fearing
theinternationalramifications(givingoffencetoRussia).Itsresponsehasbeenbeneathfeeble.
ButthenwithhonourableexceptionsMichaelGove,DominicGrieve,KenClarketodays
mainstreamconservatismismoreinterestedinentrenchingpermanentTorydominanceofthe
HouseofCommonthaninacknowledgingthecrucialroleofchecksandbalancesinupholdinga
rule-of-lawsociety.

Itwillneuterthesecondchamber,writeEuropeancourtsoutofanyroleintheBritishlegal
system,gerrymanderthenumberofseatsintheCommons,makeScottishMPssecondclassand
emasculatetheBBC.InitsaimstoTorifyBritain,itismorePutinesquethatitcaresto
acknowledgeandBritishcivilsocietycanbevulnerablejustlikeRussias.

Advertisement

Meanwhile,LabourhasnofirmergripNewLabourfloutedinternationallawtoinvadeIraqand
itsCorbynitesuccessorsshareaPutinesqueworldviewthattheperniciouswestisthesourceofall
evil.ForCorbyn,theruleoflawisanideologicalconcept,thehandmaidenofcapitalism,and
liberationmovementsworldwidearerighttodistrustitintheirstruggleagainstwestern
imperialismoritssurrogates.Topossessmilitarypowercapableofdefendingusandotherrule-of
lawsocietiesiswrongasamatterofprinciple.Putinsgangstersandcontractkillerscanbetrusted
nevertothreatenusTridentisanexpensivebauble.

AlexanderLitvinenko,dyinginagony,leftalastlettercursingPutinanddeclaringhispridein
becomingaBritishcitizenbecauseofwhatBritainstandsfor.SirRobertOwenhasdonemore
thanuncoverthetruth.Hehasofferedafiercereminderoftheimportanceoftheruleoflaw.Lets
hopeitisheededacrossourpoliticalculture.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:OlegLitwinow<olitwin45@gmail.com>
Date:Sun,Jan24,2016at9:36AM
Subject:Re:MoscowPatriarchsetsupstafftodistablizeinter-churchrelationsinUkraine
To:valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>
Cc:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,RosaliaSametz<sametzrose@rogers.com>,GregBlysniuk
<gblysniuk@gmail.com>,VladykaYuirj<metropolitan@uocc.ca>,28MORE

Val,etal.,

Pleasealsoread"TheROCoftheMoscowPatriarchateResemblestheCommunistPartyoftheSovietUnionof
SovietTimes"forJan.21st.

TheROCismorphingfromaChurchintoabodynotunliketheCommunistPartyandconductsitsbusinessthesamewaythe
PartydidinSoviettimes.WithhisdoctrineofanewImperialOrthodoxyKirillwantstoisolatecanonicalOrthodoxyfromtherest
oftheworldinsupportoftheKremlin'sactionsinUkraineandCrimeawhilepromotingtheunityofthe"church"thepeopleandthe
state.

Likethe"prisonofnations"thatwasrunbytheCPSU,CanonicalOrthodoxyisbeingheldtogetherbytheforceofcomplianceto
MoscowbytheROCandthisisanewprisonofOrthodoxbelieverssuchasarebehindbarsinSerbia,Bulgaria,Cyprus,Istanbul,
Greece,partsofUkraine,etc.

TheUOCCbishopshavesignedontothis"prisonofnation/churches"inTorontoandinUkraine(byrecognizingthelegitimacyof
theROCthere).
Canadahasnow"comeback"andPutinwantstheoldUSSRback.Thepost-USSR,newterritoryofUkraine,accordingtohim,
isjustafreakaccident.Hisideaisthatitshouldbean"autonomous"regionofRussia,sameideanowbeingsupportedbythe
colonialROC.ButtheEPandUOCCbishopshaveagreedtonotsupporttheautonomous-mindedautocephalistsandtheir"dirty"
methods(seeEPletter).SotheEP/UOCCcollaboratorsareevenmorefundamentalistthanPutinortheCP/ROC!?

PutinlaterevengrantedtheUOC(MP)afakeautonomyinUkraine,butthisforwardmovecouldnothavepleasedtheEP
canonistcollaboratorswhopreferredtheoldandtruecolonialistchurchforUkraineandsignedontoadealtopreserveitin1990
fortheperpetualbenefitofMoscow.EvenKadyrovwouldhaveapprovedtheplansforsuchunion!

TheUSSRanditsCommunistPartyarenomore,butthelegacylivesonwiththecanonicalOrthodoxChurch,theROCandits
collaborators.

On2016-01-174:34PM,"valroslin"<valroslin@gmail.com>wrote:

WindowonEurasia,ArchiveJan16,2016."..toblocktheUniversalPatriarchfromrecognizing

theKyivChurchascanonicalandtodestabilizereligiousconditionsacrossUkraine"

SeemsPoliticaldestablizersnoteffectiveenough?(see"Someonehassmelledthecoffee"

Zarickypostings,Jan15,2016)

Saturday,January16,2016

MoscowPatriarchateSetsUpNewStafftoDestabilizeInter-ChurchRelationsin
Ukraine

PaulGoble

Staunton,January16TheMoscowPatriarchateoftheRussianOrthodoxChurchhassetupanewstaffinthesynod
departmentofexternalchurchaffairstoblackenthereputationoftheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchoftheKyivPatriarchate,to
blocktheUniversalPatriarchfromrecognizingtheKyivchurchascanonical,andtodestabilizereligiousconditionsacrossUkraine.

InanarticleonUkrinform.ruentitledTheMoscowPatriarchateasCommissarofHybridWar,KyivjournalistLana
Samokhvalovasaysthatthisstaff,headquarteredinMoscow,seekstocreatecontroversiesbetweentheOrthodoxchurchesin
UkrainesoastobeabletocomplaintotheOSCEandotherinternationalbodiesthatUkraineisreligiouslyintolerant.

ThechiefoperativeofthisMoscowstaffinUkraineistheUnionofOrthodoxJournalistswhichinfact,Samokhvalova
says,isneitheraunionorcontainjournalistsorOrthodoxfaithful.Instead,itisanFSBoperationintendedtoprovokeconflicts
betweentheMoscowPatriarchateandtheparishesoftheKyivPatriarchateandthenblamethemonthelatter.

TheKyivjournalistsaysthatsheconcludesasahypothesisthatthenewstaffhasyetanothergoal:tocreateconditionsunder
which[its]realbossVladimirPutincanatanymomentexacerbatethesituationbydeclaringthathewantstodefendcanonical
orthodoxy,andthusprovidecoverformoreRussianaggressionagainstUkraine.
Thenewstaffreferstoitselfonoccasionasadepartmentforthedefenseofthetruebelievers,althoughitisanything
butareligiousgroupwithreligiousgoals.Instead,itseekstoprovokescandals,thenexacerbatethem,andthenwiththehelpof
theombudsmenforthedefenseoftherightsofbelieversmakepoliticalcapitaloutofthembothinUkraineandabroad.

Ukrainesonlydefenseagainstthiseffort,Samokhvalovasays,is,intheshortrun,toexposeitasmuchaspossible,andin
thelongerruntocreateanationalOrthodoxchurchseparatefromMoscows.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/01/moscow-patriarchate-sets-up-new-staff.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sun,Jan24,2016at10:25AM
Subject:ANewLineinMoscow:LitvinenkowasaTraitorandSoHisDeathwasn'tMurderbutSimplyJust
PunishmentbyPaulGoble
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

Sunday,January24,2016

ANewLineinMoscow:LitvinenkowasaTraitorandSoHisDeathwasnt
MurderbutSimplyJustPunishment

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.ca/2016/01/a-new-line-in-moscow-litvinenko-was.html

PaulGoble

Staunton,January24NowthataBritishinvestigationhasprovidedprimafacieevidencethatVladimirPutinwas
behindthemurderofAleksandrLitvinenko,aRussiannationalistsitehascomeupwithanunusualdefense:Therewasnomurder
butratherthejustpunishmentofatraitor--andsothereshouldbenotalkaboutmurderers.

TheeditorsofRusskayaNarodnayaLiniya,aportalthattakesOrthodoxRussiannationalistandStalinistpositions,says
thatbecauseLitvinenkowasatraitortohiscountryanditsfaith,hisdeathwasentirelyjustifiedanditdoesntmatterwhoordered
itorcarrieditout(ruskline.ru/news_rl/2016/01/23/ubijstvo_izmennika_eto_kara_ili_prestuplenie/).

BecauseoftheinformationwarbeingconductedagainstRussia,theeditorssay,itisnecessarytospeakthetruthand
callthingsbytheirpropernames.LitvinenkowasaseniorKGBandFSBofficeralieutenantcolonelasVladimirPutinonce
was--andviolatedhisoathbycooperatingwithforeignintelligenceservices.

Russianhistory,theycontinue,knowsmanycasesofdefectorswhofledabroadbothinSoviettimesandbeforethe
revolution,butfarfromallofthem,evenwhentheyknewstatesecretscooperatedwiththespecialservicesofstateshostileto
Russia.Litvinenko,astheEnglishspecialservicestestify,cooperatedwiththeandthatmeans[he]becameatraitor.

Consequently,whoeverkilledLitvinenko,FSBofficersastheEnglishinvestigationthinksorsomeotherforceswho
wereconcernedthatLitvinenkowillbegintotalk(therearemanyversions)isasecondaryquestioninthiscase,theRusskaya
narodnayaliniyaeditorsinsist.

InLondonatraitortoRussiawaskilled.Morethanthat,theysay,thereisevidencethatbeforehisdeathheaccepted
Islam,thusbetrayingthenationalfaithofRussia.

Thusitisappropriatetotalkaboutretributionagainstatraitorthanaboutamurderandtorefusetoengagein
speculationastowhocarrieditoutorwhoorderedit.Thatsimplydoesntmatter,thesiteargues.Someonewhodeservedtobe
executedfortreasonwasexecuted,andthatisallthatmatters.Nooneshouldthinkotherwise.

Stalinfamouslyobservednoperson,noproblem.Putinhasupdatedthattoclaimthatifakillingisnotamurder,then
therearenomurderers.ThatmayconvincesomeinRussiaandintheWestjustasStalinssuggestiondid.Attheveryleast,this
linerepresentsthelatestMoscowefforttomuddythewaters.Butultimatelyitshouldntandwontconvincemany.
Postedbypaulgobleat3:16AM

From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/29/201601:17:57PM
To: kbk1267@gmail.com
Subject: Cramer:AnalystsAreBlowingItonApple

Cramer:AnalystsAreBlowingItonApple

Howdowevalueacompanythat'sjustnotlikeanyothercompany?Howdoyouputapriceonabusinessthatcurrently
hasanactiveuserbaseofmorethan1billionactivesatisfiedindividuals,afterjustaddinganother75millionofthemtothe
fold?

That'sthegreatconundrumfacingApple(AAPL),thegreatestwealth-creatingentityofourgenerationandastockinthe
ActionAlertsPLUSportfolio.It'saquandarythathighlypaidanalystsfacewhenthey,fourtimesayear,mustpeerinto
thefutureandextrapolatethecurrentsetoffactsthatApplepresentsinitsquarterlyearningsreport,thengiveinvestors
adviceaboutwhatthestockisworthversuswhatitsoldforbeforethereport.

Andformymoney,Ithinktheyareblowingit.Allofthem.

Sure,theyhavepricetargetsthattheycanmoveandmodelsthattheycanadjustandphonesthattheycancount.Those
variousinputsyieldsomeconclusionthat'sverymuchinkeepingwithotherdecisionstheymightmakeaboutany
hardwarecompany,astheyhavemadeforHP(HPQ)orEMC(EMC)orIntel(INTC).

Andwhat'sthatconclusion?Ithinkitgoeslikethis:Appleownsthecellphonemarketasitexists,andnowthatit's
forecastingthefirstdownyear,thecellphonebusinessmustbesaturated.TothemthefactthatApplesold74.8million
phonesintheDecemberquarter,anall-timehigh,signalsapeakinbusiness,notanascension.

There'snobasecampontheSummitofEverest.TheperspectivethatCEOTimCookputonthatvolume,that"it'san
averageofover34,000IPhonesanhour,24hoursaday,sevendaysaweekfor13weeks,"isjustanothernailinthe
peakcoffin.Worse,thepeak,totheseskeptics,actuallyoccurredsomewhereinmid-quarterbecausewhyelsewould
Cookpointout,"WebegantoseesomesignsofeconomicsoftnessingreaterChinaearlierthismonth,notablyinHong
Kong."

So,ifacompanywithreallyoneseriouslineofbusinessisgoingtoshowaquarter-over-quarterandperhapsyear-over-
yeardeclineinsales,thenthat'salltheywrote.Traditionalpeaksincyclesyielddecliningestimatesandashrinkingmultiple
forwhatyouaregoingtoplaceonthoseestimates.That'safactoflife.

NowitwouldbeonethingifApplehadsomethingelsetomakeupforwhatisnowviewedastheinevitableplummetin
iPhones,perhapsbyasmuchasa15%to20%unitnosediveasoneanalystpostulatedonthecall.ButiPadsaren't
sellingaswellastheyusedto,andMacsevenseemtohavereachedsomesortofpeakinunits.TheAppleWatchisdoing
wellandsoisthetelevision,butsalesarenowherenearenoughtomaskanyiPhonedeceleration.

Thatmeanstheanalystshavenocover.Theydon'twanttodowngradethestock.Itistoocheaponearnings,evenifthose
earningsaregoingdown.Ithastoomuchcash,roughly$40pershare,tooutandoutdowngradethestock--hence,why
somanykeepitahalf-heartedbuyandwishtheyhaddowngradedithigher.Itcanreturnanimmenseamountofcapital,
givingyouasizabledividendthatmightserveasatrampolineatsomelevel.Itcanshrinkthenumberofshares,financially
engineeringahigherearnings-per-sharenumberlikesomanyofitscompadres.

But,intheend,theseanalystsaretraditionalists.Theyhaveseenpeaksinmainframesthatledtodisastrousyearsforthe
oldIBM(IBM).
TheyhaveseenpeaksinmidrangecomputersthatmeanttheendtoDigitalEquipmentorYang.Theyhavewatchedas
once-proprietaryminicomputercompaniesweredestroyedbyDellandHewlett-PackardandCompaq.

Inotherwords,theyhavelearnedtheirlessonandeachseemedtoworkhardtotrytodistancethemselvesfromthe
Cupertinomonster,withthebestdamningthecompanywithfaintpraise.Iknow.Ihearditonthecall.Ifeltthatevery
analystdidhisverybesttoberespectfulandacknowledgethecompany'sgreatnesswithoutpoint-blanksayingit'sallover
buttheshouting.

IknowIeasilycouldsay,"Youknowwhat,I'mdonewithit,too.IhavelikeditsincethetwentiesandIamwillingtosay,
'Hey,itwasgreatwhileitlasted.Nicetomeetyou.'"

ButIamageneralist,notatechnologyanalyst,andIcan'tviewApplelikejustanotherhardwarecompany.WhenIdidn't
likemyDellorsawacheaperdealinaHewlett-Packard,Iswitched.Whattheheck.Theyarebarelydifferent
toothpastes,aren'tthey?

Worse,givenhowmanytimesyouheardthetermmacroonthecall,youcouldtellthattheupsettingworld,theweakness
andturmoileverywhere,makesananalogytotoothpastetooglib.That'sasmallpurchaseandyoucantradedown.
Peoplearespending$691foraphone,upfrom$687ayearagodespitethesuper-freakingstrongdollar.

Andthat'swhenithitme.EveryotherinternationalcompanyIdealwithhasfounditalmostimpossibletoraisepriceinthis
environment.AlmosteveryAmericancompanyhashadtodealwithforeignexchangeratiosthathaveperseloweredthe
averagepriceofwhateverthehecktheywereselling,includingtoothpaste.

ButAppledidn't.

Why?

Brandloyalty.

Foramoment,though,Isaid,maybethisisadeadend.Imean,Lexushasgreatbrandloyalty.SodoesBMW.Butifthe
worldissaturatedwithautos,thenwhocares?

ThenIfiguredthatmaybeAppleisliketobacco--there'sabrandaddiction.Buttobaccoisprettyinterchangeableeven
asitmightbeshrinkingingrowth,astheanalyststhinkAppleis.

Howaboutadrugcompany?MaybeApple'siPhoneislikeLipitor,thegreatestdrugever.Youhadtotakeit.Butthen
again,Lipitor'spatentranout,andthatleftyouholdingsharesinacompanythathadpeakearnings.Althoughevenat
peak,youwerepaying13xearningsbecausetherewereotherdrugs--considerthemtheiPad,likeViagra--tooffsetthe
patentcliff.That'sbecausethere'snoeconomicsensitivitytoPfizer's(PFE)products,buttherearetoApple'sforcertain,
justnotasmuchasyouthinkbecausetheyareaddictiveonceyouownone.Still,Ithoughtitworkedearlier,soIthrewit
outthere.

Andthenithitme.Weactuallyhaveametricthatcanexplainandmonetizethevalueofbrandloyalty.Theyjustdidn't
explainitthatway.IamtalkingabouttheslideintheAppledeckcalled"servicerevenue,"whichshowedthatinstalled
baserevenues--theonesweallpayforiTunes,music,theappstorelicensing,serviceparts,iCloudandApplePay--are
growingatanincredible23%yearoveryear,from$25billioninfiscal2014to$31.2billioninfiscal2015.

That'sthenumberthatweneedtokeyon,notunitdevices.That'stherazorbladestreamforApple.Exceptunlike
Gillette'srazorstream,brandloyaltyissogreatyouaren'tgoingtouseBarbasolshavingcreamorswitchtotheSchick
Quattro.
Youarein.

IhavealwaysquestionedtheconceptoftheecosystemofApple.Imean,sowhat?IhavealwayssaidthatIdolikethe
razorblademodel,butthatatacertainpointyouaregoingtoseeresistancetothepriceoftherazor,whichhishappening
now.Butthehighergrossmarginsandthehigherpricespaidforphonestellmethereisnoresistance.

NowIknowthatApplehasthat$40billionincash.Iknowitcanmake$9inearnings.Iknowthatsomewouldregard
thataspeak.ButwhathappensifthepeoplewhoareswitchingsorapidlytoApplefromotherbrands,oraretradingup
inAmericaorstartingoutinChinaandtheincrediblyyoungerdemographicnIndia--under27yearsold--getas
comfortableasweallareintheecosystem?

Thatmeanstherazorbladerevenue,therealhighgrossmarginstuffthatyougetfromGilletteorAppleforthatmatter,isn't
gettingnearlyenoughcreditasitshould,especiallyatthatgrowthrate.

SomaybeAppledoesn'tneedthewatchtotrumpphonesales,TVforthatmatter.Maybeitjustneedstokeepselling
moredevicesandlettheservicestreamdothetalking.Bythistimenextyear,itwouldn'tshockmeifthatweren'ttheline
itemtokeyon,especiallywithaniPhone7aroundthecorner.

Ifthat'sthecase,guesswhat?Youaregettinganincrediblebargainwiththisstockevenasallwehearaboutisthatit'sall
overbuttheshouting.Maybe,justmaybe,whenwegettheinevitabledowngradesandtheanalyststakeitevenloweras
wegetawayfromtheblastzonenumber,youwillseethatthisstreamistheoneworthowningthestockforwhenothers
arethrowingitaway.Allthemorereasonthat,onstillonemoremiserabledayforthemarket,IsayownApple,don't
tradeit.

GetanemailalerteachtimeIwriteanarticleforRealMoney.Clickthe"+Follow"nexttomybylinetothis
article.

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/22/201611:53:00AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMAPLUSUA:1in4Russians
Subject:
AfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyinMoscowPP:UAForced...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,January22,201610:42AM
Subject:Fwd:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMAPLUSUA:1in
4RussiansAfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyinMoscowPP:UAForced
...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at1:38PM
Subject:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMA
PLUSUA:1in4RussiansAfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyin
MoscowPP:UAForcedbyRUtoSpent5%ofGDPonDefenseRU'sEndgameinUAPaulG'sBaker'sDozenofRUStories
......[FINALLY....HILARIOUS:RIYF]ForeignOfficeurgesMoscowtocarryoutUKassassinationslessconspicuously
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at11:54AM
Subject:TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/,"nytimes.com,1/22
TheOpinionpages
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/,"
nytimes.com,1/22TheOpinionpages

Lastparagraph:Mr.Putinhasbuiltasordidrecordonjusticeandhumanrights,whichnaturally
reinforcessuspicionsthathecouldeasilyhavebeeninvolvedinthe[Litvinenko]murder.Attheveryleast,
theLondoninquiry,howevermuchitisdeniedattheKremlin,shouldserveasaCAUTIONtothe
Russianleadertorepairhisreputationfornotoriousintriguesabroad.

And:KERRY[atDavos]sayseffortandgoodfaith[!]couldleadtoliftingofSANCTIONSonRussia
[inthecomingmonths],reuters.com,1/22

And:RussianSANCTIONScouldbegoneinafewmonths,JohnKerry
says,http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/22/news/russia-ukraine-sanctions-john-kerry-davos/

And:RussiapushingforanENDGAMEinUkraine,themoscowtimes.com,1/22

DetaileddiscussionoftheNuland-Surkovbrainstormingsessionanditsimplications.

And:Ukrainianarmyreports69[!]strikesonitspositionsinDonbas[overthepast
day],http://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/690565240556253185

And:FinancialTimes:VladimirPutinproposedtoAssadthathegointo
retirement,http://www.newsru.com/world/22jan2016/offer_print.htmlPeskovhasdeniedtheFinancial
Timesreport.

And:ThomasWright,TRUMPs19thcenturyforeignpolicy.Hisviewsarentasconfusedasthey
seem.Infacttheyreremarkablyconsistentandtheyhavealonghistory,
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546?o=2

TheauthorexplainsthatTrump,theRepublicanfrontrunner,couldbeexpectedtogetalongverywell
withPutin.

And:KarinaORLOVA,ReplytoTonyaSamsonova,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1698520-
echo/

SamsonovahaddefendedtheregimesassassinationofLitvinenko.TheUSandotherstatesdoitwhy
cantRussia?Orlova:Theresponsehereissimple.WhenBarakObamaordersBinLadenkilledhe
doesittotheheadofAlQaedawhichcarriedouttheterroristactof9/11Butwhatterroristactdid
Litvinenkocommit?...WhatlawwasadoptedpermittingLitvinenkotobekilledwithinalegal
framework?

And:AleksandrSOLDATOV,Should[RussianOrthodox]BANKSexist?Andwhatdoesitsignifyif
thesebankshaveproblems?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71529.html?print=1

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at10:28AM
Subject:OneRussianinFourAfraidtoTellPollsterstheTruth-andOneinTwoSayMostRussiansDon't
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

WindowonEurasia--NewSeries
Friday,January22,2016

OneRussianinFourAfraidtoTellPollsterstheTruthandOneinTwoSay
MostRussiansDont

PaulGoble

Staunton,January22RoughlyaquarterofallRussians--26percent--areafraidtoexpresstheirpersonalopinionsto
sociologistsaboutcurrentRussianeventsandslightlyunderhalf--49percent--saythatmostRussiansareunwillingtodoso
becausetheyfearnegativeconsequencesforthemselves,accordingtoanewLevadaCentersurvey.

WhilesuchfindingsmightappearfallunderthelogicalcategoryofallCretansareliars,saidoneCretantoanother,
theywilladdfueltothedebateastohowconfidentanyonecanbeaboutpollresultsfromRussia,withsomedismissingthefindings
asinherentlyflawedandothersarguingthattheyprovideatleastsomeguidance.

AccordingtoanarticleintodaysKommersant,theLevadaCenterpollstersfallinthelattercategory,tellingthe
Moscownewspapersjournaliststhatsuchreluctancetotellthetruthtopolltakersprobablydoesntaffecttheresultsasfaras
Putinsstandingisconcernedbymorethanfivepercentonewayortheother(kommersant.ru/doc/2897562).

Justoverhalf--56percentofthosewhosaidRussiansareunwillingtotellthetruthsaidthatwasthecasebecause
peoplefearnegativeconsequencesforthemselves.Another20percentsuggestedthattheydidsobecausethetruthwas
unwelcomeorunpleasantforthem,andninepercentsuggestedthatrespondentsfeardisapprovalbythepollster.

AlekseyGrazhdankin,thedeputydirectoroftheLevadaCenter,saysPutinissupportedbythesilentmajoritywhich
takepartindiscussionsonsocialnetworksoramongcolleagueslessactivelythandoopponentsoftheauthorities.Atthesame
time,hecontinues,peoplewithoppositionviewsreallymoreoftenthanothersareafraidtosaywhattheythink.

Commentingonthesefindings,MoscowpoliticalanalystKonstantinKalachyevsaysthattheproblemofsocially
approvedanswersisnothingnew.Ithasbeenaroundforsometimeandiscalledthespiralofsilence.Peoplefollowthemajority
andfearsettingthemselvesapartandansweringwithready-madepositivemantras.

Hesuggeststhatsociologistscangetmorereliableresultsfromfocusgroupsorin-depthinterviews.Andhesuggests
thatanotherproblem,perhapsevenlarger,isthattheanswerspeoplegivereflectthewayinwhichthequestionsofthepolltakers
areformed.

Kalachyevgivesthefollowingexamples:OneandthesameindividualmayrespondtothequestionHowhasPutin
dealtwiththeproblemoftherublesfall?withthewordpoorlyandsayyestothequestionDoyouapprovehisactivityas
president?OrhewillanswerpositivelyatoneandthesametimetoquestionslikeAreyouforfriendshipofthepeoples?and
DoyouagreethatRussiashouldbefortheRussians?

Postedbypaulgobleat7:11AM

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at12:57PM
Subject:KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacing[RU]hybridthreats[nowplaguingUA]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

From:foreign-journalistspressudar@googlegroups.com[mailto:foreign-journalistspressudar@googlegroups.com]OnBehalfOf????-
???????????????????????????????????????
Sent:January22,201612:37PM
To:foreignjournalists.pressUDAR
Subject:KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats

KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats

Todayonecannothelpnoticinghybridthreatsandpretendthateverythingisfine,astheyarealreadyattheverybordersofEurope,
themayorofKyivVitaliKlitschkosaidatthediscussionConfrontinghybridthreatsattheWorldeconomicforuminDavos.

Atthisstage,mycountryfeelsmostacutelythesehybridthreats.YouallknowabouttheconflictintheDonbasandtheannexationof
Crimea.Thereasonforthoseisthefactthatforalongtimetheworldwasreluctanttonoticegrowingtrendsofhybridthreats.Nowone
cannothelpnoticingthem,asthesethreatsarealreadyattheverybordersofEurope,Kyivmayorsaid.

KlitschkoissurethattheglobalsecuritysystemwhichwasformedafterWorldWarIIdoesnothavetimetorespondtothreats
immediatelyandadequately.Thatiswhywearefacingtheneedtoreformandcreateanewsystemofglobalsecurity,asaggressive
separatismandterrorismbegintodestroyglobalpeaceandtranquilitymoreandmoreoften.Andnoonecanpretendthateverythingis
fineanymore,becausethewholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats,politicianstressed.

AndthatiswhyweshouldreformtheUnitedNationssoasnottoallowitturnitintotheLeagueofNations,andmakeitfunctionto
effectivelyensureglobalsecurity.Itisalsoveryimportanttostartatrulyglobalfightagainstterrorism.Andforthat,too,thereisaneed
todevelopaneffectivemechanism,preferablywithintheframeworkoftheUNO.Oncewesucceedinthis,anewimpetusto
developmentoftheglobaleconomywillappear,VitaliKlitschkoemphasized.

http://kiev.klichko.org/news/?id=1600&lang=eng

--
,"foreignjournalists.pressUDAR".
,
foreign-journalistspressudar+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
,http://groups.google.com/d/optout.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at1:29PM
Subject:THERE'SNOPLACEFORJOYINTODAY'SMOSCOW
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

THERESNOPLACEFORJOYINTODAYS
MOSCOW
SERGEILEBEDEVMOURNSACITYSEALEDINSILENCE

January20,2016BySergeiLebedev

http://lithub.com/theres-no-place-for-joy-in-todays-moscow/

Moscowisemptyingout.Friends,oldflames,areleaving.Theresastrangelightinfamiliar
windows.Eventhecityitself,asaspaceofthememory,belongsnowtoapastepoch,estranged
frommanyofuswhoremain.

WalkingthestreetsoftheRussiancapitaltoday,thoseofuswhowereborninthe1970sand
80srealizewewereborninacountrythatnolongerexists.Wecameofageofthe90s,whenthe
Russiathatexistedthencametousfreely,withoutconditions,likeagiftfromhistory.Wewere
spoiledbyfatewefeltitwasenoughtoexpressourselvesininformalsignsofcommunitywe
wavedwhiteribbonsin2011toprotestflawedelections,butdiscoveredthatribbonswereno
matchforredtapethanininstitutionalformsofsolidarityanddemocracy:westartedfew
politicalparties,joinedpowerinfewprofessionalunionsorpublicorganizations.Andsoitturned
outitwasenoughfortheatmospheretochange,andallofasuddenourgenerationcouldonly
watchhistoryclosedinonus.

Today,itcanbesaidthathistoryisnolongerthepast,butiswalkingeachstepwithus.We
increasinglyperceiveuncomfortableparallelswiththe1920sand30s.Thatwedebatewhichage
wereclosertotheterrorofLeninortheterrorofStalinspeaksvolumesaboutourpresent
situation.

ThereareimagesoflifeinMoscowtodaywhichrecallimagesfromanearliertime:Thehouseis
sealedinsilencenow/Onlythetickingoftheclock./Butthehandwonttouchtheswitch/The
lightdisturbstheanguish.Theselineswerewrittenbymygreataunt,TatyanaLebedeva,afew
yearsbeforeshediedofstarvationduringtheSiegeofLeningrad.Herbodywouldbeburiedina
massgraveinoneofthecitycemeteries.Herapartmentwouldberansacked,herbelongingswould
disappear,andtherewouldremainonlyaslimnotebookfilledwithpoetry,safeguardedbyafriend.

ThehouseissealedinsilencenowThepoemwasdedicatedtoapartingwithabeloved,but
timeimpingesuponlanguage,prescribesverbs:sealed.Becauseinthesamemonthsasthepoem
waswritten,theSovietNKVDsecretpolicehadsealedtheapartmentsofthearrestedexiting
ontothestairwell,peoplesawwaxstampsontheirneighborsdoors,doorsofapartmentsfrom
whenceresidentshadbeenledaway.

ThehouseissealedinsilencenowAttheendofthe90s,havingfalleninlovemyself,Iread
theselines,andthemetaphorseemedstriking.Today,15yearslater,itnolongerseemsso.Itis:its
myhousethatsbeensealedinsilence.

Thefirstthingthatlosesitsvoiceisjoy.Youareswimminginthecurrentofnews.Atfirstit
horrifiesyou:whetheritswordofyetanotherraidontheofficesofahumanrightsorganizationor
alawlessarrest,youfeelanger,alarm,indignation,fear.Thenthefeelingssubside.Yougetusedto
them.ButnonethelesstheresjustnoplaceforjoyintodaysMoscow.Atleastnotforsober-
thinkingpeople,despitethefabulous(thoughshrinking)wealththathasbeenamassedbyaprecious
fewlifetransformsintoexhaustingslogsalongdarkKafkaesquecorridors.

Thenyourfriendsdisappear.In1998,havingfinishedhighschool,Ithoughtseriouslyaboutjoining
thearmy.Myolderfriend,havingservedinthespecialforces,gavemeacopyofSvetlana
AlexievichsZinkyBoys:SovietVoicesfromtheAfghanistanWar.Hehandedittomeandsaid,
Readthisbeforeyoudecide.Ireadit.AndIforeverpartedwayswithromanticnotionsofwar.

WhenAlexievichreceivedtheNobelPrizeinLiteraturethispastOctober,thesamemanwhod
onceperformedafeatthathadinawaysetthecourseofmylifethatsamemansaidthat
Alexievichsbooksarealllies,thatsheslandersRussia(presumably,intheserviceoftheWest).
Manypeopleclingtothisinvertedpictureoftheworld,ifonlysoasnottofeelastrident
lonelinessinthemidstofgeneralunity.

Othersarereadytoplungeintotheecstasyofpower,theardorofloyaltyanythingsolongasthey
dontfeeltheoncominggloom.Andmany,ofcourse,arereadytoacceptonceagainthepropaganda
ofRussiaarisingfromitsknees,Sherises!forthatwayatleasttherecanbeanersatzfuture.
Thesearchforhistoricalanaloguesinvariablyleadsto1937,theyearoftheGreatTerror,whenthe
mechanismofrepressionwasbuiltontheapplicationofdirectforcearrests,exile,executions
entirestrataofthepopulationwerecrossedout,subtractedfromexistence.

Buttodaythepracticeoflarge-scaledirectviolenceisnolongercalledfor.Withmuchsuccess,the
softviolenceofthemediahastakenitsplaceasophisticatedbrainwashinghasadvancedtoa
degreethatStalinsgovernmentcouldneverhavedreamedof.Afterall,by1937theliteracyratein
Russiawas75percentnoweverybodycanwatch(state-controlled)TV.

ThosearrestedduringtheMoscowprotestsagainstPutinsgovernmentinthespringof2012
generallyreceivedjustafewyearsofprisontime.TheUkrainianfilmmakerOlegSentsov,arrested
twoyearslaterinCrimea,gotputbehindbarsfor20years.Thedifferenceinseveritycantbe
explainedbythelegalcode.Thiswasasignal,asignofthenewtimes,anewyardstickofriskand
fear.

AndwhatsmostimportantisthattodaysRussiaalreadyhasbehindher,inthechainof
generations,agianttraumathatgetspassedonanew.Thephysicalterrorofthe1930sisnolonger
necessaryinMoscow.Itsenoughforthepasttokeepremindingusofitselfinordertoactualize
thisatavisticfearitisrepressionsimplybymeansofthepainfulmemoryofrepression.Thusfora
personwhowastorturedlongago,itsenoughfromtimetotimetohearthevoiceofhistorturer,to
hearthatintonationforgottenlongago,inordertoagainlosethestrengthandthewillforprotest.
PerhapsthatsonereasonwhyPutinhassetaboutrevivingStalinsreputationinhistorytextbooks
usedbychildrenallaroundRussia.

Moscowhasnowbecomethathousesealedinsilence.Andweareincreasinglyafraidtotouchthe
switchandilluminatethedarkcornersofthiscity.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at10:33AM
Subject:PoroshenkosaysunpredictableRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofGDPondefense
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

PoroshenkosaysunpredictableRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofGDPondefense
21.01.2016|23:424

http://www.unian.info/politics/1243255-poroshenko-says-unpredictable-russia-makes-ukraine-spend-5-of-gdp-on-defense.html?

UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkosaysthattheunpredictabilityofRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofitsGDPondefense
andsecurity,accordingtoBloombergTV.

PoroshenkosaysthatareductioninmilitaryexpenditureisbetterforRussiaanditsneighbours/PhotofromUNIAN"Frommy
pointofview,Russiashouldbeapredictablecountry.UntilnownobodycanpredicthowthesituationwillbedevelopinginSyria,
nobodycanpredicthowthesituationwillbedevelopinginUkrainethat'swhyweshouldspend5%ofourGDPonoursecurity
anddefenseprogramjusttobuildouteffectivearmedforces,justtostopRussianaggressionandnottomakeharmlessRussia's
unpredictability,"hetoldBloombergTVonthesidelinesoftheWorldEconomicForuminDavos,Switzerland.Poroshenkoalso
saidthathedoubtsthattherewasadirectlinkbetweenthepresentoilfallingandRussia'scapacitytoengageinescalationin
Donbasfurther."ThelessmoneyRussiacouldspendonmilitaryexpenditure,thebetteritisbetterforRussia,betterforthe
neighbors,andbetterforthewholeglobalsecurity,"hesaid.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at10:43AM
Subject:RussiaPushingforAnEndgameinUkraine
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,Walter
Derzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

MOSCOWTIMES:RussiaPushingforAnEndgameinUkraine

MatthewBodnerJan.21201611:15Lastedited11:15
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/news/article/russia-pushing-for-an-endgamein-ukraine/556437.html

MaximShemetov/ReutersTheappearanceofoneofPresidentVladimirPutin'smostenigmaticassociates,VladislavSurkov,ata
meetingwithU.S.AssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandlastFridayhassparkedspeculationthatMoscowandWashington
areapproachinganendgameinUkraineaftertwoyearsofconflict."ThatiswasSurkov,andnot[DeputyForeignMinister
Grigory]KarasinNuland'scounterpartisverysignificant,"saidforeignaffairsexpertVladimirFrolov."Surkovisakey
decision-makerontheDonbasswiththeauthoritytomaketacticaladjustmentstotheRussianposition."

ThoughhehasallegedlybeenamajorplayerinthecraftingandmanagingofRussia'sUkrainepolicyoverthepasttwoyears,
Surkovtendstooperatebehindthescenes.Hehasofficiallynottakenpartinanyprevioushigh-levelnegotiationswiththeUnited
States,untilnow.AnalystssaidSurkov'sinvolvementindicatesRussiaistryingnowtobringaresolutiontotheongoingconflictin
UkraineasameansofseekingrelieffromWesternsanctionswhichhavecombinedwithacollapseinglobaloilpricestodeal
realdamagetotheRussianeconomy.

UndertheRadar

BoththeU.S.StateDepartmentandtheRussianForeignMinistryhavebeenrelativelysilentwithregardstothesubstanceof
Nuland'smeetingwithSurkovaseniorRussiangovernmentfigureandclosePutinassociatewhowasamongthefirstplacedon
theU.S.sanctionslistin2014.Surkovtoldreportersthatthemeetingwasessentiallya"brainstorming"sessiononpossible
compromisesthatwouldallowtheMinskIIagreements,signedinFebruary2015,tofinallybeimplementedandthecrisisdrawn
toaclose.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaidafterthemeetingonFridaythat"[Surkov]istheappropriatepersonin
[theRussian]government[withwhom]tohavethisdiscussionaboutMinskimplementation."

Kirbysaidonlythatthetwodiscussed"thesituationineasternUkraineandtheneedforafullimplementationoftheMinsk
agreements,"hesaid,addingthatthetalkswereconstructiveanddesignedtosupportongoinginternationalnegotiationstobringthe
crisistoaclose.EndgameontheHorizon?ThenatureofSurkovandNuland'smeeting,aswellasthelackofofficialchatteror
evenleakstothemediaaboutthesubstanceofthediscussions,indicatesthatrealnegotiationsaretakingplace,accordingto
Dr.MarkGaleotti,aRussianforeignandsecurityaffairsexpert."NulandisnotonetosparetheRussiansblushes,soiftheyfelt
theygotnowhere,eithershewouldhavesaidsoorbynowthatwouldhavebeenleakedandcommonsensewouldsuggestthat
Russiaoughttobelookingforsomekindofexitstrategy,"Galeottisaid.

TheDonbassproject,comprisedoftheaspirationalLuhanskandDonetskPeople'sRepublics,hasbeenanexpensivefailure.The
UkrainiangovernmentinKievremainsinpower,andRussianinvolvementintheconflicthasnotresultedinanydecisiveoutcome
fortherebels.

Source:UkraineNationalSecurity&DefenseCouncil

Cease-firelinesinEasternUkraineasenvisionedbyMinskagreements

AndthereareothersignalsthatRussiaisnowgettingseriousaboutadeal,suchastheappointmentofBorisGryzlovasenior
memberoftheRussiannationalsecuritycouncilasMoscow'srepresentativetotheinternationalcontactgroupsupervising
Minskimplementation.

"[Gryzlov]maynotbeadecisionmaker,buthe'satrustedexecutor,andhe'ssomeonewithacertainamountofpoliticalclout
whichiswhatyou'dneedtosealthedeal,"saidGaleotti.AlthoughtheKremlinappearstobepositioningitselfforadealwiththe
West,obstaclestotheimplementationoftheMinskIIagreementremain.AmongthelistofpotentialspoilersaretheRussian
people,whohavespentthelasttwoyearswatchingamediawaragainstneo-fascisminKiev.

AnalystssaidthattheKremlin'sstatemediamachinewouldmostlikelykeepUkraineoutoftheheadlinesafterpresentinga
"missionaccomplished"scenariointheDonbassthefascistsweredefeated,theregionisreadytointegratewithKiev.ButKiev
itselfmayyetundermineadeal.

AspartoftheMinskIIagreements,Ukraineagreedtoamendtheirconstitutiontoprovidefortheself-governanceofthepro-
RussianLuhanskandDonetskregions.Inexchange,UkrainewouldbegivenfullcontrolofitsborderwithRussia.TheUkrainian
legislatureisexpectedtovoteontheseamendmentsinthenextseveralweeks,butRussiahasalreadysoundedthealarmthatKiev
isnotfullylivinguptoitsendofthebargainthelawaswrittenisonlypartofatransitionalconstitution,Putinsaid.

AccordingtoAlexeiChesnakov,aRussianpoliticalanalystandformerKremlinstaffer,oneofthetopicsoftheSurkov-Nuland
meetingwashowtofixaUkrainianelectionlawandlawonself-governancefortheDonbass.Ascurrentlywritten,"theself-
proclaimedrepublicsandRussiawillnotrecognizetheamendment,"hesaid.ButFrolovarguedthatMoscowislikelyusingthe
meetingstolobbytheWesttopressureKievintosettlingtheconflictonMoscow'stermsacceptingthattheregionswillremain
permanentlyautonomousinafederalizedUkraine."Ifthatprovedimpossible,thenthesecondoptionistogettheWestto
acknowledgethatthewholehouseofcardscollapsedthroughnofaultofRussia's,butbecauseUkrainewasunreasonable,"he
said.Ukraine,accordingtothislogic,wouldberesponsibleforMinsk'sfailure.Russia,therefore,wouldbeoffthehook,and
sanctionscouldbelifted."Mysenseisthatthelatterismorelikelythantheformer,"leavingtheDonbassconflictinadeepfreeze,
Frolovconcluded.

ButtherearealreadysignsthatMoscowisabandoningtheDonbassrebelsinordertobringanendtotheconflictandWestern
sanctions.Apro-rebelactivist,VladimirGarnachuk,wroteonhisFacebookpageTuesdayeveningthattheDonbassprojecthas
lostmomentum.

"Alreadynooneisinterestedinwhatpeopletherefoughtanddiedfor.Welostthiswar.Andthebitterheartburnofthislosswillbe
releasedinthenearfuture,"Garnachukconcluded.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at1:06PM
Subject:ABaker'sDozenofNeglectedRussianStories-No.20
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

WindowonEurasia--NewSeries

Friday,January22,2016

ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.20

PaulGoble

Staunton,January22--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandstrangeastheRussian
Federationoftenappearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomark
thosewhichcantbediscussedindetailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore

Consequently,WindowsonEurasiawillpresentaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstories
attheendofeachweek.Thisisthetwentiethsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcomplete
indeed,thisweekonceagain,onecouldhaveputoutsuchalistingeveryday--butperhapsoneormoreofthese
storieswillproveofbroaderinterest.

1.BetteraFifthColumnthanaFourthReich!EventhoughtheMoscowauthoritieshaverefusedtogive
permissionforamarchintheRussiancapitalagainstRamzanKadyrov,activistsareturningtotheInternetto
spreadtheirfearsandtooffersloganslikethisoneforotherstoconsider(facebook.com/photo.php?
fbid=10153142416462434&set=a.10151105726772434.416368.644037433&type=3&theater).

2.OnlyaNewOPEC-StyleCartelCouldRestoreOilPricesandSaveRussia,MoscowAnalystSays.
AccordingtoaMoscowanalyst,RussianeedstoexplorethepossibilitiesofcreatinganewOPEC-stylecartelas
ameansofboostingthepriceofoilandthusgettingRussiaoutofitscurrenteconomicdifficulties
(ng.ru/economics/2016-01-20/4_oil.html).

3.TalkaboutPuttingOffDumaElectionsSpreads.URA.rureportsthatsomeDumamembersarenowtalking
aboutdelayingRussiasparliamentaryelectionsbecauseofthecrisis.Campaignswouldonlygetinthewayof
addressingRussiasrealproblemsandpopulistproposalscouldmakethesituationworse,theysuggest
(ura.ru/articles/1036266839).

4.WithPutinsRussia,AnEntryVisaisntNearlyEnough.Asnewcourtcasesshow,manyforeignersinRussia
entirelylegallyarefindingitdifficulttoleavethecountry,anindicationProfilesuggeststhatexitvisasevenforthem
arebeingintroducedonadefactobasis(profile.ru/obsch/item/103288-zalozhniki-v-gostyakh).

5.RussianProstitutesNowBarteringTheirServicesAndOtherSignsofRussiasDistress.Theeconomic
crisishashitmanyRussiangroups,includingprostitutes,whohaveseendemandfall,havebeenforcedtolower
theirprices,andnowareevenwillingtoacceptbarterarrangements(mk.ru/social/2016/01/22/rossiyskie-
prostitutki-izza-krizisa-pereshli-na-barter.htmlandura.ru/articles/1036266823).Othersignsofhowbadthingsare
becomingincludeanannouncementbythegovernmentnewsagencyTASSthatitwontbeabletopayhonoraria
onatimelybasis(meduza.io/news/2016/01/20/v-tasse-nachali-zaderzhivat-zarplatu)andtherequirementthat
passengersnowpayforWIFIatMoscowsSheremetyevoairport(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5699415841000).
Butinareminderthatthereisnobadwithoutsomegood,thecollapseoftherublehaspushedupheroinpriceson
thestreetsofRussiancitiesandlikelyreducedconsumptionofthatillegaldrug(interfax.ru/business/489553).

6.MorethanOneMillionRussiansNowInfectedwithHIVVirus.InasignoftheRussiangovernments
misplacedpriorities,includingspendingahigherpercentageofitsGDPonarmsthananyothercountryand
cuttingmedicalprograms,morethanamillionRussiansarenowinfectedwithHIVandmanyarenotbeingtreated
(echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1697842-echo/).Otherexamplesofthismistakensetofchoicesincludethe
governmentsshutteringofaprogramthathadbeenhelpingMoscowshomeless
(novayagazeta.ru/society/71463.html)andtheclosureof340publiclibrariesinthepast12months
(philologist.livejournal.com/8127745.html).

7.OnlyFiveItelmenSpeakersLeft.OnlyfivenativespeakersofItelmensurvive,andyoungpeoplewhowantto
learnthelanguagehavehadtoturntorecordingsandtheInternet,astatisticthatmakesamockeryofValery
TishkovsupbeatstatementsaboutRussiassupportofminoritylanguagesandpeoples
(unmultimedia.org/radio/russian/archives/209197/#.VqH1hlJ0e-
dandwindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/01/crimea-annexation-restored-ethnic.html).Meanwhile,inTuva,
officialssaythatmembersofthatnationalityneedfivelanguagestobesuccessful(tuva.asia/news/tuva/8430-
bavuu-syuryun.html).

8.KadyrovWantsForcedPsychiatricTreatmentofOppositionFigures.RamzanKadyrovhasproposed
incarceratingmembersoftheRussianoppositioninpsychiatrichospitalsmuchastheSovietsdidalthoughhehas
notyetre-introducedthetermsluggishschizophreniatodescribetheirmedicalcondition
(grani.ru/War/Chechnya/m.247813.html).Russianofficialsarentfarbehindhim:theywanttoexpandthedefinition
offoreignagentstoincludeanyonewhocriticizesthePutinregimeevenifheorshedoesntgetmoneyfrom
abroad(rbc.ru/politics/22/01/2016/56a1cb429a794748d2757a39andtheins.ru/news/18785).AndtheFSBin
occupiedCrimeaisnowinsistingthatthepostalservicereportonlettersanyoneonalistofopponentsreceivesas
awayofcontrollingtheopposition(grani.ru/Politics/World/Europe/Ukraine/m.247942.html).

9.AcademyofSciencesPresidentTellsPutinthatRussianSciencehasFallentotheLevelofIrans.Vladimir
PutinsdenunciationofLeninforlayingadelayedactionminethatledtothedestructionoftheUSSRattractedfar
moreattention,butatthesamemeeting,theheadoftheRussianAcademyofSciencespointedoutthatRussian
sciencehascollapsedoverthelasttwodecadesandnowranksnobetterthanthatofIrans,atrendthatmaybe
farmorefatefulforthefuture(rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/56a0d2929a7947f070f00bc7).

10.AllAnimalsareEqualbutSomeareMoreEqualthanOthers.InyetanotherwaythatthePutinregimeis
becomingevermoreOrwellian,childrenofwell-offparentsarenowbeingfedbetterthanthosefrompoorfamilies
insomeschools(medialeaks.ru/news/1501okh_sa).

11.BirobidzhanReadytoTakeinJewsButTheyDontSeemtoWanttoCome.FollowingVladimirPutins
declarationthananyJewswhohadearlierlefttheUSSRandnowfeeluncomfortableinEuropeshouldreturnto
Russia,theleadershipoftheJewishAutonomousDistrictofBirobidzhanannouncedthattheywerereadyto
acceptallofthem.Thereisonlyoneproblem:TherearealmostnoJewstherenow,andonlyoneJewhas
returnedtothisJewishhomelandinrecentyears(sobkorr.ru/news/56A0B0E485840.html).

12.RussianTextbooksSay2Plus2DoesntEqual5,andPeshkovSaysCrimeanQuestionDoesntExist.A
scandalhasbrokenoutoverthefactthatmathematicstextbooksbeingusedinRussiacontainfundamentalerrors
ofaddition,subtraction,multiplicationanddivision(polit.ru/article/2016/01/20/schoolbook/).Insuchacountry,itis
thusperhapsnosurprisethatitspresidentspresssecretarycandeclarewithastraightfacethattheCrimean
questiondoesntexist(regnum.ru/news/polit/2060240.html).

13.DumahasaPlantoMakeIslamicTerrorismGoAway:StopCallingItIslamic.Dumamembershavenot
figuredouthowtofightIslamicterrorismeffectively,buttheyhavecomeupwithoneproposalthatwillmakeit
disappear.SomedeputiesaresuggestingthatMoscowshouldbancallingIslamicterrorismIslamic
(newizv.ru/politics/2016-01-21/233296-tajnaja-vera.html).

Andinaddition,herearefiveotherstoriesincountriesneighboringRussiathatalsomayhavebeenmissed:

1.TajikistanSaysNoOneUnder40WillBeAllowedtoMaketheHaj.Dushanbehasbeenstrugglingwith
Islamistradicalismforsometime.NowitplanstoblockanyTajikyoungerthan40frommakingthepilgrimageto
Mecca(islamsng.com/tjk/news/10243),amovethatislikelytohelpISISwithitsrecruitingeffortsinthatCentral
Asiancountry.

2.TurkmenistanBansCigarettes.Ashgabathasannouncedthatitwillbanthesaleofcigarettesthereinthe
nameofeconomyandpublichealth(bbc.com/russian/news/2016/01/160115_turkmenistan_cigarettes_ban).

3.AstanaGot802KazakhIslamiststoAcceptTraditionalIslam.Kazakhstanofficialshaveannouncedthatthey
havesucceededinconverting802followersofradicalIslamistgroupstoaccepttraditionalIslam.Whatthisinfact
meansisfarfromclear(islamsng.com/kaz/news/10273).

4.TenPercentofUkrainiansMovedAbroadintheLastTwoYears,RussianOutletSays.ARussianportalsays
thatmorethanfourmillionUkrainianshavemovedabroadtoescapeviolenceorfindwork(versia.ru/za-poltora-
goda-iz-ukrainy-sbezhalo-10-procentov-naseleniya).

5.EstoniasRussiansNameRussophobesoftheYear.AgroupofethnicRussiansinEstoniahavenameda
varietyofpeopleRussophobesoftheYear.Apparently,inthegroupsview,therearealotofcompetitorsforthis
title(regnum.ru/news/society/2059144.html)

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PPP
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at10:29AM
Subject:[FP]RUMoneyMattersMoretoUKThanLitvinenko?See:RussiaInYourFace[ED:
HILARIOUS]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://russiainyourface.com/2016/01/21/foreign-office-urges-moscow-to-carry-out-uk-assassinations-less-
conspicuously/

RussiaInYourFace!!!

TheextremealternativetothelyingWestern
LAMEstreammedia!!!
1DAYAGO
ForeignOfficeurgesMoscowtocarryoutUKassassinationslessconspicuously

LONDON-BritishForeignOfficediplomatsareurgingRussianPresidentVladimirPutintotry
toshowabitmoretactwhenexecutingenemiesoftheRussianstateonBritishsoil.Theplea
comesthedayaninquiryintothemurderofdyed-in-the-wooltraitorAlexanderLitvinenko
foundthatthetraitorousscumwasmurderedbyanothertraitorwhohaslongsincekilled
himself.

SeniordiplomatshavearguedthatthewiderinterestsofAnglo-Russianrelations,whichtotally
donotincludethebillionsofdollarslaunderedthroughLondonshousingmarkettothebenefit
ofaselectfew,requireadegreeofrestraint.

Tobequitefrank,noonereallygivesas***eifMoscowoffstheoddwankeronthestreetsof
Londoneverynowandthen,asourceintheForeignOfficetoldRIYF.

Butforfookssake,doyougottaleavearadioactivetraceoverhalfthefookincontinent?
Polonium-210inafookinteapot,hecontinued,youmadehalfofLondonlooklikeahotel
bedunderablacklightonNightlineyoubloodyamateurs.

ThereisalsoaviewinpartsoftheForeignOfficethatLitvinenkocannotbebroughtbackto
lifemostoftheRussiandiplomatsoragentssupposedlyimplicatedinthecasehavelong
sincelefttheUKanyways,andtheinquirywasneverintendedtoprovewhetheranyonewas
responsibleinthefirstplace.

Hesalreadydead,sonousecryingoverspiltmilkasmygrannyusedtosay,Home
SecretaryTheresaMaysaid.

LabourLeaderJeremyCorbynwasfarlesswillingtomincewords:TheWestshouldstop
persecutingRussia!EveniftheydidassassinatesomeoneonthestreetsofLondon,itwas
aninternalaffairandtheleastwecoulddoisbesensitivetoanotherculture.

On1November2006,confirmedtraitortothemotherlandLitvinenkosuddenlyfellillandwas
hospitalizedaftersuckingdownthedregsofateapotinahigh-endLondonhotel.Hedied
threeweekslater,becomingthefirstconfirmedvictimoflethalpolonium-210-inducedacute
radiationsyndrome.

Atthetimeofhisdeath,LitvinenkowasworkingforMI6,theso-calledBritishspyagency(ha!
ed.),asapart-timeconsultantandfull-timetraitor.Therareradioactiveisotopethat
poisonedhimismadeonlyatclosednuclearfacilitiescontrolledbytheCIAinaproperty
ownedbylong-sincedeceasedRussianoligarchBorisBerezovskyinNazi-occupiedKiev.

AnindependentinvestigationconductedbyRussiasInvestigativeCommitteehasconcluded
thatBerezovskyhadtheswornenemyoftheRussianstateLitvinenkokilledtodiscreditPutin.

BerezovskysubsequentlyoffedhimselfinMarch2013,likelyoutofshameforbetrayingPutin
andcountry.Apost-mortemexaminationcarriedoutbyHomeOfficepathologistsfoundthe
causeofdeathwasconsistentwiththerealitythats***happens.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/22/201611:53:00AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMAPLUSUA:1in4Russians
Subject:
AfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyinMoscowPP:UAForced...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,January22,201610:42AM
Subject:Fwd:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMAPLUSUA:1in
4RussiansAfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyinMoscowPP:UAForced
...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at1:38PM
Subject:[JDDD1-22]"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/&8MORESTORIES....WDVLAD-O-RAMA
PLUSUA:1in4RussiansAfraidtoTellTruthtoPollstersKlitschkoinDavos:RUHybridWarThreattoAllNoPlaceforJoyin
MoscowPP:UAForcedbyRUtoSpent5%ofGDPonDefenseRU'sEndgameinUAPaulG'sBaker'sDozenofRUStories
......[FINALLY....HILARIOUS:RIYF]ForeignOfficeurgesMoscowtocarryoutUKassassinationslessconspicuously
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at11:54AM
Subject:TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/,"nytimes.com,1/22
TheOpinionpages
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TheEditorialBoardoftheNewYorkTimes:"Mr.PutinandthePOISONOUSLondontea/party/,"
nytimes.com,1/22TheOpinionpages

Lastparagraph:Mr.Putinhasbuiltasordidrecordonjusticeandhumanrights,whichnaturally
reinforcessuspicionsthathecouldeasilyhavebeeninvolvedinthe[Litvinenko]murder.Attheveryleast,
theLondoninquiry,howevermuchitisdeniedattheKremlin,shouldserveasaCAUTIONtothe
Russianleadertorepairhisreputationfornotoriousintriguesabroad.

And:KERRY[atDavos]sayseffortandgoodfaith[!]couldleadtoliftingofSANCTIONSonRussia
[inthecomingmonths],reuters.com,1/22

And:RussianSANCTIONScouldbegoneinafewmonths,JohnKerry
says,http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/22/news/russia-ukraine-sanctions-john-kerry-davos/

And:RussiapushingforanENDGAMEinUkraine,themoscowtimes.com,1/22

DetaileddiscussionoftheNuland-Surkovbrainstormingsessionanditsimplications.

And:Ukrainianarmyreports69[!]strikesonitspositionsinDonbas[overthepast
day],http://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/690565240556253185

And:FinancialTimes:VladimirPutinproposedtoAssadthathegointo
retirement,http://www.newsru.com/world/22jan2016/offer_print.htmlPeskovhasdeniedtheFinancial
Timesreport.

And:ThomasWright,TRUMPs19thcenturyforeignpolicy.Hisviewsarentasconfusedasthey
seem.Infacttheyreremarkablyconsistentandtheyhavealonghistory,
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546?o=2

TheauthorexplainsthatTrump,theRepublicanfrontrunner,couldbeexpectedtogetalongverywell
withPutin.

And:KarinaORLOVA,ReplytoTonyaSamsonova,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1698520-
echo/

SamsonovahaddefendedtheregimesassassinationofLitvinenko.TheUSandotherstatesdoitwhy
cantRussia?Orlova:Theresponsehereissimple.WhenBarakObamaordersBinLadenkilledhe
doesittotheheadofAlQaedawhichcarriedouttheterroristactof9/11Butwhatterroristactdid
Litvinenkocommit?...WhatlawwasadoptedpermittingLitvinenkotobekilledwithinalegal
framework?

And:AleksandrSOLDATOV,Should[RussianOrthodox]BANKSexist?Andwhatdoesitsignifyif
thesebankshaveproblems?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71529.html?print=1

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at10:28AM
Subject:OneRussianinFourAfraidtoTellPollsterstheTruth-andOneinTwoSayMostRussiansDon't
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

WindowonEurasia--NewSeries
Friday,January22,2016

OneRussianinFourAfraidtoTellPollsterstheTruthandOneinTwoSay
MostRussiansDont

PaulGoble

Staunton,January22RoughlyaquarterofallRussians--26percent--areafraidtoexpresstheirpersonalopinionsto
sociologistsaboutcurrentRussianeventsandslightlyunderhalf--49percent--saythatmostRussiansareunwillingtodoso
becausetheyfearnegativeconsequencesforthemselves,accordingtoanewLevadaCentersurvey.

WhilesuchfindingsmightappearfallunderthelogicalcategoryofallCretansareliars,saidoneCretantoanother,
theywilladdfueltothedebateastohowconfidentanyonecanbeaboutpollresultsfromRussia,withsomedismissingthefindings
asinherentlyflawedandothersarguingthattheyprovideatleastsomeguidance.

AccordingtoanarticleintodaysKommersant,theLevadaCenterpollstersfallinthelattercategory,tellingthe
Moscownewspapersjournaliststhatsuchreluctancetotellthetruthtopolltakersprobablydoesntaffecttheresultsasfaras
Putinsstandingisconcernedbymorethanfivepercentonewayortheother(kommersant.ru/doc/2897562).

Justoverhalf--56percentofthosewhosaidRussiansareunwillingtotellthetruthsaidthatwasthecasebecause
peoplefearnegativeconsequencesforthemselves.Another20percentsuggestedthattheydidsobecausethetruthwas
unwelcomeorunpleasantforthem,andninepercentsuggestedthatrespondentsfeardisapprovalbythepollster.

AlekseyGrazhdankin,thedeputydirectoroftheLevadaCenter,saysPutinissupportedbythesilentmajoritywhich
takepartindiscussionsonsocialnetworksoramongcolleagueslessactivelythandoopponentsoftheauthorities.Atthesame
time,hecontinues,peoplewithoppositionviewsreallymoreoftenthanothersareafraidtosaywhattheythink.

Commentingonthesefindings,MoscowpoliticalanalystKonstantinKalachyevsaysthattheproblemofsocially
approvedanswersisnothingnew.Ithasbeenaroundforsometimeandiscalledthespiralofsilence.Peoplefollowthemajority
andfearsettingthemselvesapartandansweringwithready-madepositivemantras.

Hesuggeststhatsociologistscangetmorereliableresultsfromfocusgroupsorin-depthinterviews.Andhesuggests
thatanotherproblem,perhapsevenlarger,isthattheanswerspeoplegivereflectthewayinwhichthequestionsofthepolltakers
areformed.

Kalachyevgivesthefollowingexamples:OneandthesameindividualmayrespondtothequestionHowhasPutin
dealtwiththeproblemoftherublesfall?withthewordpoorlyandsayyestothequestionDoyouapprovehisactivityas
president?OrhewillanswerpositivelyatoneandthesametimetoquestionslikeAreyouforfriendshipofthepeoples?and
DoyouagreethatRussiashouldbefortheRussians?

Postedbypaulgobleat7:11AM

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at12:57PM
Subject:KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacing[RU]hybridthreats[nowplaguingUA]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

From:foreign-journalistspressudar@googlegroups.com[mailto:foreign-journalistspressudar@googlegroups.com]OnBehalfOf????-
???????????????????????????????????????
Sent:January22,201612:37PM
To:foreignjournalists.pressUDAR
Subject:KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats

KlitschkoinDavos:wholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats

Todayonecannothelpnoticinghybridthreatsandpretendthateverythingisfine,astheyarealreadyattheverybordersofEurope,
themayorofKyivVitaliKlitschkosaidatthediscussionConfrontinghybridthreatsattheWorldeconomicforuminDavos.

Atthisstage,mycountryfeelsmostacutelythesehybridthreats.YouallknowabouttheconflictintheDonbasandtheannexationof
Crimea.Thereasonforthoseisthefactthatforalongtimetheworldwasreluctanttonoticegrowingtrendsofhybridthreats.Nowone
cannothelpnoticingthem,asthesethreatsarealreadyattheverybordersofEurope,Kyivmayorsaid.

KlitschkoissurethattheglobalsecuritysystemwhichwasformedafterWorldWarIIdoesnothavetimetorespondtothreats
immediatelyandadequately.Thatiswhywearefacingtheneedtoreformandcreateanewsystemofglobalsecurity,asaggressive
separatismandterrorismbegintodestroyglobalpeaceandtranquilitymoreandmoreoften.Andnoonecanpretendthateverythingis
fineanymore,becausethewholecivilizedworldisfacinghybridthreats,politicianstressed.

AndthatiswhyweshouldreformtheUnitedNationssoasnottoallowitturnitintotheLeagueofNations,andmakeitfunctionto
effectivelyensureglobalsecurity.Itisalsoveryimportanttostartatrulyglobalfightagainstterrorism.Andforthat,too,thereisaneed
todevelopaneffectivemechanism,preferablywithintheframeworkoftheUNO.Oncewesucceedinthis,anewimpetusto
developmentoftheglobaleconomywillappear,VitaliKlitschkoemphasized.

http://kiev.klichko.org/news/?id=1600&lang=eng

--
,"foreignjournalists.pressUDAR".
,
foreign-journalistspressudar+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
,http://groups.google.com/d/optout.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at1:29PM
Subject:THERE'SNOPLACEFORJOYINTODAY'SMOSCOW
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

THERESNOPLACEFORJOYINTODAYS
MOSCOW
SERGEILEBEDEVMOURNSACITYSEALEDINSILENCE

January20,2016BySergeiLebedev

http://lithub.com/theres-no-place-for-joy-in-todays-moscow/

Moscowisemptyingout.Friends,oldflames,areleaving.Theresastrangelightinfamiliar
windows.Eventhecityitself,asaspaceofthememory,belongsnowtoapastepoch,estranged
frommanyofuswhoremain.

WalkingthestreetsoftheRussiancapitaltoday,thoseofuswhowereborninthe1970sand
80srealizewewereborninacountrythatnolongerexists.Wecameofageofthe90s,whenthe
Russiathatexistedthencametousfreely,withoutconditions,likeagiftfromhistory.Wewere
spoiledbyfatewefeltitwasenoughtoexpressourselvesininformalsignsofcommunitywe
wavedwhiteribbonsin2011toprotestflawedelections,butdiscoveredthatribbonswereno
matchforredtapethanininstitutionalformsofsolidarityanddemocracy:westartedfew
politicalparties,joinedpowerinfewprofessionalunionsorpublicorganizations.Andsoitturned
outitwasenoughfortheatmospheretochange,andallofasuddenourgenerationcouldonly
watchhistoryclosedinonus.

Today,itcanbesaidthathistoryisnolongerthepast,butiswalkingeachstepwithus.We
increasinglyperceiveuncomfortableparallelswiththe1920sand30s.Thatwedebatewhichage
wereclosertotheterrorofLeninortheterrorofStalinspeaksvolumesaboutourpresent
situation.

ThereareimagesoflifeinMoscowtodaywhichrecallimagesfromanearliertime:Thehouseis
sealedinsilencenow/Onlythetickingoftheclock./Butthehandwonttouchtheswitch/The
lightdisturbstheanguish.Theselineswerewrittenbymygreataunt,TatyanaLebedeva,afew
yearsbeforeshediedofstarvationduringtheSiegeofLeningrad.Herbodywouldbeburiedina
massgraveinoneofthecitycemeteries.Herapartmentwouldberansacked,herbelongingswould
disappear,andtherewouldremainonlyaslimnotebookfilledwithpoetry,safeguardedbyafriend.

ThehouseissealedinsilencenowThepoemwasdedicatedtoapartingwithabeloved,but
timeimpingesuponlanguage,prescribesverbs:sealed.Becauseinthesamemonthsasthepoem
waswritten,theSovietNKVDsecretpolicehadsealedtheapartmentsofthearrestedexiting
ontothestairwell,peoplesawwaxstampsontheirneighborsdoors,doorsofapartmentsfrom
whenceresidentshadbeenledaway.

ThehouseissealedinsilencenowAttheendofthe90s,havingfalleninlovemyself,Iread
theselines,andthemetaphorseemedstriking.Today,15yearslater,itnolongerseemsso.Itis:its
myhousethatsbeensealedinsilence.

Thefirstthingthatlosesitsvoiceisjoy.Youareswimminginthecurrentofnews.Atfirstit
horrifiesyou:whetheritswordofyetanotherraidontheofficesofahumanrightsorganizationor
alawlessarrest,youfeelanger,alarm,indignation,fear.Thenthefeelingssubside.Yougetusedto
them.ButnonethelesstheresjustnoplaceforjoyintodaysMoscow.Atleastnotforsober-
thinkingpeople,despitethefabulous(thoughshrinking)wealththathasbeenamassedbyaprecious
fewlifetransformsintoexhaustingslogsalongdarkKafkaesquecorridors.

Thenyourfriendsdisappear.In1998,havingfinishedhighschool,Ithoughtseriouslyaboutjoining
thearmy.Myolderfriend,havingservedinthespecialforces,gavemeacopyofSvetlana
AlexievichsZinkyBoys:SovietVoicesfromtheAfghanistanWar.Hehandedittomeandsaid,
Readthisbeforeyoudecide.Ireadit.AndIforeverpartedwayswithromanticnotionsofwar.

WhenAlexievichreceivedtheNobelPrizeinLiteraturethispastOctober,thesamemanwhod
onceperformedafeatthathadinawaysetthecourseofmylifethatsamemansaidthat
Alexievichsbooksarealllies,thatsheslandersRussia(presumably,intheserviceoftheWest).
Manypeopleclingtothisinvertedpictureoftheworld,ifonlysoasnottofeelastrident
lonelinessinthemidstofgeneralunity.

Othersarereadytoplungeintotheecstasyofpower,theardorofloyaltyanythingsolongasthey
dontfeeltheoncominggloom.Andmany,ofcourse,arereadytoacceptonceagainthepropaganda
ofRussiaarisingfromitsknees,Sherises!forthatwayatleasttherecanbeanersatzfuture.
Thesearchforhistoricalanaloguesinvariablyleadsto1937,theyearoftheGreatTerror,whenthe
mechanismofrepressionwasbuiltontheapplicationofdirectforcearrests,exile,executions
entirestrataofthepopulationwerecrossedout,subtractedfromexistence.

Buttodaythepracticeoflarge-scaledirectviolenceisnolongercalledfor.Withmuchsuccess,the
softviolenceofthemediahastakenitsplaceasophisticatedbrainwashinghasadvancedtoa
degreethatStalinsgovernmentcouldneverhavedreamedof.Afterall,by1937theliteracyratein
Russiawas75percentnoweverybodycanwatch(state-controlled)TV.

ThosearrestedduringtheMoscowprotestsagainstPutinsgovernmentinthespringof2012
generallyreceivedjustafewyearsofprisontime.TheUkrainianfilmmakerOlegSentsov,arrested
twoyearslaterinCrimea,gotputbehindbarsfor20years.Thedifferenceinseveritycantbe
explainedbythelegalcode.Thiswasasignal,asignofthenewtimes,anewyardstickofriskand
fear.

AndwhatsmostimportantisthattodaysRussiaalreadyhasbehindher,inthechainof
generations,agianttraumathatgetspassedonanew.Thephysicalterrorofthe1930sisnolonger
necessaryinMoscow.Itsenoughforthepasttokeepremindingusofitselfinordertoactualize
thisatavisticfearitisrepressionsimplybymeansofthepainfulmemoryofrepression.Thusfora
personwhowastorturedlongago,itsenoughfromtimetotimetohearthevoiceofhistorturer,to
hearthatintonationforgottenlongago,inordertoagainlosethestrengthandthewillforprotest.
PerhapsthatsonereasonwhyPutinhassetaboutrevivingStalinsreputationinhistorytextbooks
usedbychildrenallaroundRussia.

Moscowhasnowbecomethathousesealedinsilence.Andweareincreasinglyafraidtotouchthe
switchandilluminatethedarkcornersofthiscity.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at10:33AM
Subject:PoroshenkosaysunpredictableRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofGDPondefense
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

PoroshenkosaysunpredictableRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofGDPondefense
21.01.2016|23:424

http://www.unian.info/politics/1243255-poroshenko-says-unpredictable-russia-makes-ukraine-spend-5-of-gdp-on-defense.html?

UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkosaysthattheunpredictabilityofRussiamakesUkrainespend5%ofitsGDPondefense
andsecurity,accordingtoBloombergTV.

PoroshenkosaysthatareductioninmilitaryexpenditureisbetterforRussiaanditsneighbours/PhotofromUNIAN"Frommy
pointofview,Russiashouldbeapredictablecountry.UntilnownobodycanpredicthowthesituationwillbedevelopinginSyria,
nobodycanpredicthowthesituationwillbedevelopinginUkrainethat'swhyweshouldspend5%ofourGDPonoursecurity
anddefenseprogramjusttobuildouteffectivearmedforces,justtostopRussianaggressionandnottomakeharmlessRussia's
unpredictability,"hetoldBloombergTVonthesidelinesoftheWorldEconomicForuminDavos,Switzerland.Poroshenkoalso
saidthathedoubtsthattherewasadirectlinkbetweenthepresentoilfallingandRussia'scapacitytoengageinescalationin
Donbasfurther."ThelessmoneyRussiacouldspendonmilitaryexpenditure,thebetteritisbetterforRussia,betterforthe
neighbors,andbetterforthewholeglobalsecurity,"hesaid.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at10:43AM
Subject:RussiaPushingforAnEndgameinUkraine
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,Walter
Derzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

MOSCOWTIMES:RussiaPushingforAnEndgameinUkraine

MatthewBodnerJan.21201611:15Lastedited11:15
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/news/article/russia-pushing-for-an-endgamein-ukraine/556437.html

MaximShemetov/ReutersTheappearanceofoneofPresidentVladimirPutin'smostenigmaticassociates,VladislavSurkov,ata
meetingwithU.S.AssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandlastFridayhassparkedspeculationthatMoscowandWashington
areapproachinganendgameinUkraineaftertwoyearsofconflict."ThatiswasSurkov,andnot[DeputyForeignMinister
Grigory]KarasinNuland'scounterpartisverysignificant,"saidforeignaffairsexpertVladimirFrolov."Surkovisakey
decision-makerontheDonbasswiththeauthoritytomaketacticaladjustmentstotheRussianposition."

ThoughhehasallegedlybeenamajorplayerinthecraftingandmanagingofRussia'sUkrainepolicyoverthepasttwoyears,
Surkovtendstooperatebehindthescenes.Hehasofficiallynottakenpartinanyprevioushigh-levelnegotiationswiththeUnited
States,untilnow.AnalystssaidSurkov'sinvolvementindicatesRussiaistryingnowtobringaresolutiontotheongoingconflictin
UkraineasameansofseekingrelieffromWesternsanctionswhichhavecombinedwithacollapseinglobaloilpricestodeal
realdamagetotheRussianeconomy.

UndertheRadar

BoththeU.S.StateDepartmentandtheRussianForeignMinistryhavebeenrelativelysilentwithregardstothesubstanceof
Nuland'smeetingwithSurkovaseniorRussiangovernmentfigureandclosePutinassociatewhowasamongthefirstplacedon
theU.S.sanctionslistin2014.Surkovtoldreportersthatthemeetingwasessentiallya"brainstorming"sessiononpossible
compromisesthatwouldallowtheMinskIIagreements,signedinFebruary2015,tofinallybeimplementedandthecrisisdrawn
toaclose.StateDepartmentspokesmanJohnKirbysaidafterthemeetingonFridaythat"[Surkov]istheappropriatepersonin
[theRussian]government[withwhom]tohavethisdiscussionaboutMinskimplementation."

Kirbysaidonlythatthetwodiscussed"thesituationineasternUkraineandtheneedforafullimplementationoftheMinsk
agreements,"hesaid,addingthatthetalkswereconstructiveanddesignedtosupportongoinginternationalnegotiationstobringthe
crisistoaclose.EndgameontheHorizon?ThenatureofSurkovandNuland'smeeting,aswellasthelackofofficialchatteror
evenleakstothemediaaboutthesubstanceofthediscussions,indicatesthatrealnegotiationsaretakingplace,accordingto
Dr.MarkGaleotti,aRussianforeignandsecurityaffairsexpert."NulandisnotonetosparetheRussiansblushes,soiftheyfelt
theygotnowhere,eithershewouldhavesaidsoorbynowthatwouldhavebeenleakedandcommonsensewouldsuggestthat
Russiaoughttobelookingforsomekindofexitstrategy,"Galeottisaid.

TheDonbassproject,comprisedoftheaspirationalLuhanskandDonetskPeople'sRepublics,hasbeenanexpensivefailure.The
UkrainiangovernmentinKievremainsinpower,andRussianinvolvementintheconflicthasnotresultedinanydecisiveoutcome
fortherebels.

Source:UkraineNationalSecurity&DefenseCouncil

Cease-firelinesinEasternUkraineasenvisionedbyMinskagreements

AndthereareothersignalsthatRussiaisnowgettingseriousaboutadeal,suchastheappointmentofBorisGryzlovasenior
memberoftheRussiannationalsecuritycouncilasMoscow'srepresentativetotheinternationalcontactgroupsupervising
Minskimplementation.

"[Gryzlov]maynotbeadecisionmaker,buthe'satrustedexecutor,andhe'ssomeonewithacertainamountofpoliticalclout
whichiswhatyou'dneedtosealthedeal,"saidGaleotti.AlthoughtheKremlinappearstobepositioningitselfforadealwiththe
West,obstaclestotheimplementationoftheMinskIIagreementremain.AmongthelistofpotentialspoilersaretheRussian
people,whohavespentthelasttwoyearswatchingamediawaragainstneo-fascisminKiev.

AnalystssaidthattheKremlin'sstatemediamachinewouldmostlikelykeepUkraineoutoftheheadlinesafterpresentinga
"missionaccomplished"scenariointheDonbassthefascistsweredefeated,theregionisreadytointegratewithKiev.ButKiev
itselfmayyetundermineadeal.

AspartoftheMinskIIagreements,Ukraineagreedtoamendtheirconstitutiontoprovidefortheself-governanceofthepro-
RussianLuhanskandDonetskregions.Inexchange,UkrainewouldbegivenfullcontrolofitsborderwithRussia.TheUkrainian
legislatureisexpectedtovoteontheseamendmentsinthenextseveralweeks,butRussiahasalreadysoundedthealarmthatKiev
isnotfullylivinguptoitsendofthebargainthelawaswrittenisonlypartofatransitionalconstitution,Putinsaid.

AccordingtoAlexeiChesnakov,aRussianpoliticalanalystandformerKremlinstaffer,oneofthetopicsoftheSurkov-Nuland
meetingwashowtofixaUkrainianelectionlawandlawonself-governancefortheDonbass.Ascurrentlywritten,"theself-
proclaimedrepublicsandRussiawillnotrecognizetheamendment,"hesaid.ButFrolovarguedthatMoscowislikelyusingthe
meetingstolobbytheWesttopressureKievintosettlingtheconflictonMoscow'stermsacceptingthattheregionswillremain
permanentlyautonomousinafederalizedUkraine."Ifthatprovedimpossible,thenthesecondoptionistogettheWestto
acknowledgethatthewholehouseofcardscollapsedthroughnofaultofRussia's,butbecauseUkrainewasunreasonable,"he
said.Ukraine,accordingtothislogic,wouldberesponsibleforMinsk'sfailure.Russia,therefore,wouldbeoffthehook,and
sanctionscouldbelifted."Mysenseisthatthelatterismorelikelythantheformer,"leavingtheDonbassconflictinadeepfreeze,
Frolovconcluded.

ButtherearealreadysignsthatMoscowisabandoningtheDonbassrebelsinordertobringanendtotheconflictandWestern
sanctions.Apro-rebelactivist,VladimirGarnachuk,wroteonhisFacebookpageTuesdayeveningthattheDonbassprojecthas
lostmomentum.

"Alreadynooneisinterestedinwhatpeopletherefoughtanddiedfor.Welostthiswar.Andthebitterheartburnofthislosswillbe
releasedinthenearfuture,"Garnachukconcluded.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at1:06PM
Subject:ABaker'sDozenofNeglectedRussianStories-No.20
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

WindowonEurasia--NewSeries

Friday,January22,2016

ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.20

PaulGoble

Staunton,January22--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandstrangeastheRussian
Federationoftenappearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomark
thosewhichcantbediscussedindetailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore

Consequently,WindowsonEurasiawillpresentaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstories
attheendofeachweek.Thisisthetwentiethsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcomplete
indeed,thisweekonceagain,onecouldhaveputoutsuchalistingeveryday--butperhapsoneormoreofthese
storieswillproveofbroaderinterest.

1.BetteraFifthColumnthanaFourthReich!EventhoughtheMoscowauthoritieshaverefusedtogive
permissionforamarchintheRussiancapitalagainstRamzanKadyrov,activistsareturningtotheInternetto
spreadtheirfearsandtooffersloganslikethisoneforotherstoconsider(facebook.com/photo.php?
fbid=10153142416462434&set=a.10151105726772434.416368.644037433&type=3&theater).

2.OnlyaNewOPEC-StyleCartelCouldRestoreOilPricesandSaveRussia,MoscowAnalystSays.
AccordingtoaMoscowanalyst,RussianeedstoexplorethepossibilitiesofcreatinganewOPEC-stylecartelas
ameansofboostingthepriceofoilandthusgettingRussiaoutofitscurrenteconomicdifficulties
(ng.ru/economics/2016-01-20/4_oil.html).

3.TalkaboutPuttingOffDumaElectionsSpreads.URA.rureportsthatsomeDumamembersarenowtalking
aboutdelayingRussiasparliamentaryelectionsbecauseofthecrisis.Campaignswouldonlygetinthewayof
addressingRussiasrealproblemsandpopulistproposalscouldmakethesituationworse,theysuggest
(ura.ru/articles/1036266839).

4.WithPutinsRussia,AnEntryVisaisntNearlyEnough.Asnewcourtcasesshow,manyforeignersinRussia
entirelylegallyarefindingitdifficulttoleavethecountry,anindicationProfilesuggeststhatexitvisasevenforthem
arebeingintroducedonadefactobasis(profile.ru/obsch/item/103288-zalozhniki-v-gostyakh).

5.RussianProstitutesNowBarteringTheirServicesAndOtherSignsofRussiasDistress.Theeconomic
crisishashitmanyRussiangroups,includingprostitutes,whohaveseendemandfall,havebeenforcedtolower
theirprices,andnowareevenwillingtoacceptbarterarrangements(mk.ru/social/2016/01/22/rossiyskie-
prostitutki-izza-krizisa-pereshli-na-barter.htmlandura.ru/articles/1036266823).Othersignsofhowbadthingsare
becomingincludeanannouncementbythegovernmentnewsagencyTASSthatitwontbeabletopayhonoraria
onatimelybasis(meduza.io/news/2016/01/20/v-tasse-nachali-zaderzhivat-zarplatu)andtherequirementthat
passengersnowpayforWIFIatMoscowsSheremetyevoairport(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=5699415841000).
Butinareminderthatthereisnobadwithoutsomegood,thecollapseoftherublehaspushedupheroinpriceson
thestreetsofRussiancitiesandlikelyreducedconsumptionofthatillegaldrug(interfax.ru/business/489553).

6.MorethanOneMillionRussiansNowInfectedwithHIVVirus.InasignoftheRussiangovernments
misplacedpriorities,includingspendingahigherpercentageofitsGDPonarmsthananyothercountryand
cuttingmedicalprograms,morethanamillionRussiansarenowinfectedwithHIVandmanyarenotbeingtreated
(echo.msk.ru/blog/karina_orlova/1697842-echo/).Otherexamplesofthismistakensetofchoicesincludethe
governmentsshutteringofaprogramthathadbeenhelpingMoscowshomeless
(novayagazeta.ru/society/71463.html)andtheclosureof340publiclibrariesinthepast12months
(philologist.livejournal.com/8127745.html).

7.OnlyFiveItelmenSpeakersLeft.OnlyfivenativespeakersofItelmensurvive,andyoungpeoplewhowantto
learnthelanguagehavehadtoturntorecordingsandtheInternet,astatisticthatmakesamockeryofValery
TishkovsupbeatstatementsaboutRussiassupportofminoritylanguagesandpeoples
(unmultimedia.org/radio/russian/archives/209197/#.VqH1hlJ0e-
dandwindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/01/crimea-annexation-restored-ethnic.html).Meanwhile,inTuva,
officialssaythatmembersofthatnationalityneedfivelanguagestobesuccessful(tuva.asia/news/tuva/8430-
bavuu-syuryun.html).

8.KadyrovWantsForcedPsychiatricTreatmentofOppositionFigures.RamzanKadyrovhasproposed
incarceratingmembersoftheRussianoppositioninpsychiatrichospitalsmuchastheSovietsdidalthoughhehas
notyetre-introducedthetermsluggishschizophreniatodescribetheirmedicalcondition
(grani.ru/War/Chechnya/m.247813.html).Russianofficialsarentfarbehindhim:theywanttoexpandthedefinition
offoreignagentstoincludeanyonewhocriticizesthePutinregimeevenifheorshedoesntgetmoneyfrom
abroad(rbc.ru/politics/22/01/2016/56a1cb429a794748d2757a39andtheins.ru/news/18785).AndtheFSBin
occupiedCrimeaisnowinsistingthatthepostalservicereportonlettersanyoneonalistofopponentsreceivesas
awayofcontrollingtheopposition(grani.ru/Politics/World/Europe/Ukraine/m.247942.html).

9.AcademyofSciencesPresidentTellsPutinthatRussianSciencehasFallentotheLevelofIrans.Vladimir
PutinsdenunciationofLeninforlayingadelayedactionminethatledtothedestructionoftheUSSRattractedfar
moreattention,butatthesamemeeting,theheadoftheRussianAcademyofSciencespointedoutthatRussian
sciencehascollapsedoverthelasttwodecadesandnowranksnobetterthanthatofIrans,atrendthatmaybe
farmorefatefulforthefuture(rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/56a0d2929a7947f070f00bc7).

10.AllAnimalsareEqualbutSomeareMoreEqualthanOthers.InyetanotherwaythatthePutinregimeis
becomingevermoreOrwellian,childrenofwell-offparentsarenowbeingfedbetterthanthosefrompoorfamilies
insomeschools(medialeaks.ru/news/1501okh_sa).

11.BirobidzhanReadytoTakeinJewsButTheyDontSeemtoWanttoCome.FollowingVladimirPutins
declarationthananyJewswhohadearlierlefttheUSSRandnowfeeluncomfortableinEuropeshouldreturnto
Russia,theleadershipoftheJewishAutonomousDistrictofBirobidzhanannouncedthattheywerereadyto
acceptallofthem.Thereisonlyoneproblem:TherearealmostnoJewstherenow,andonlyoneJewhas
returnedtothisJewishhomelandinrecentyears(sobkorr.ru/news/56A0B0E485840.html).

12.RussianTextbooksSay2Plus2DoesntEqual5,andPeshkovSaysCrimeanQuestionDoesntExist.A
scandalhasbrokenoutoverthefactthatmathematicstextbooksbeingusedinRussiacontainfundamentalerrors
ofaddition,subtraction,multiplicationanddivision(polit.ru/article/2016/01/20/schoolbook/).Insuchacountry,itis
thusperhapsnosurprisethatitspresidentspresssecretarycandeclarewithastraightfacethattheCrimean
questiondoesntexist(regnum.ru/news/polit/2060240.html).

13.DumahasaPlantoMakeIslamicTerrorismGoAway:StopCallingItIslamic.Dumamembershavenot
figuredouthowtofightIslamicterrorismeffectively,buttheyhavecomeupwithoneproposalthatwillmakeit
disappear.SomedeputiesaresuggestingthatMoscowshouldbancallingIslamicterrorismIslamic
(newizv.ru/politics/2016-01-21/233296-tajnaja-vera.html).

Andinaddition,herearefiveotherstoriesincountriesneighboringRussiathatalsomayhavebeenmissed:

1.TajikistanSaysNoOneUnder40WillBeAllowedtoMaketheHaj.Dushanbehasbeenstrugglingwith
Islamistradicalismforsometime.NowitplanstoblockanyTajikyoungerthan40frommakingthepilgrimageto
Mecca(islamsng.com/tjk/news/10243),amovethatislikelytohelpISISwithitsrecruitingeffortsinthatCentral
Asiancountry.

2.TurkmenistanBansCigarettes.Ashgabathasannouncedthatitwillbanthesaleofcigarettesthereinthe
nameofeconomyandpublichealth(bbc.com/russian/news/2016/01/160115_turkmenistan_cigarettes_ban).

3.AstanaGot802KazakhIslamiststoAcceptTraditionalIslam.Kazakhstanofficialshaveannouncedthatthey
havesucceededinconverting802followersofradicalIslamistgroupstoaccepttraditionalIslam.Whatthisinfact
meansisfarfromclear(islamsng.com/kaz/news/10273).

4.TenPercentofUkrainiansMovedAbroadintheLastTwoYears,RussianOutletSays.ARussianportalsays
thatmorethanfourmillionUkrainianshavemovedabroadtoescapeviolenceorfindwork(versia.ru/za-poltora-
goda-iz-ukrainy-sbezhalo-10-procentov-naseleniya).

5.EstoniasRussiansNameRussophobesoftheYear.AgroupofethnicRussiansinEstoniahavenameda
varietyofpeopleRussophobesoftheYear.Apparently,inthegroupsview,therearealotofcompetitorsforthis
title(regnum.ru/news/society/2059144.html)

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PPP
Date:Fri,Jan22,2016at10:29AM
Subject:[FP]RUMoneyMattersMoretoUKThanLitvinenko?See:RussiaInYourFace[ED:
HILARIOUS]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://russiainyourface.com/2016/01/21/foreign-office-urges-moscow-to-carry-out-uk-assassinations-less-
conspicuously/

RussiaInYourFace!!!

TheextremealternativetothelyingWestern
LAMEstreammedia!!!
1DAYAGO
ForeignOfficeurgesMoscowtocarryoutUKassassinationslessconspicuously

LONDON-BritishForeignOfficediplomatsareurgingRussianPresidentVladimirPutintotry
toshowabitmoretactwhenexecutingenemiesoftheRussianstateonBritishsoil.Theplea
comesthedayaninquiryintothemurderofdyed-in-the-wooltraitorAlexanderLitvinenko
foundthatthetraitorousscumwasmurderedbyanothertraitorwhohaslongsincekilled
himself.

SeniordiplomatshavearguedthatthewiderinterestsofAnglo-Russianrelations,whichtotally
donotincludethebillionsofdollarslaunderedthroughLondonshousingmarkettothebenefit
ofaselectfew,requireadegreeofrestraint.

Tobequitefrank,noonereallygivesas***eifMoscowoffstheoddwankeronthestreetsof
Londoneverynowandthen,asourceintheForeignOfficetoldRIYF.

Butforfookssake,doyougottaleavearadioactivetraceoverhalfthefookincontinent?
Polonium-210inafookinteapot,hecontinued,youmadehalfofLondonlooklikeahotel
bedunderablacklightonNightlineyoubloodyamateurs.

ThereisalsoaviewinpartsoftheForeignOfficethatLitvinenkocannotbebroughtbackto
lifemostoftheRussiandiplomatsoragentssupposedlyimplicatedinthecasehavelong
sincelefttheUKanyways,andtheinquirywasneverintendedtoprovewhetheranyonewas
responsibleinthefirstplace.

Hesalreadydead,sonousecryingoverspiltmilkasmygrannyusedtosay,Home
SecretaryTheresaMaysaid.

LabourLeaderJeremyCorbynwasfarlesswillingtomincewords:TheWestshouldstop
persecutingRussia!EveniftheydidassassinatesomeoneonthestreetsofLondon,itwas
aninternalaffairandtheleastwecoulddoisbesensitivetoanotherculture.

On1November2006,confirmedtraitortothemotherlandLitvinenkosuddenlyfellillandwas
hospitalizedaftersuckingdownthedregsofateapotinahigh-endLondonhotel.Hedied
threeweekslater,becomingthefirstconfirmedvictimoflethalpolonium-210-inducedacute
radiationsyndrome.

Atthetimeofhisdeath,LitvinenkowasworkingforMI6,theso-calledBritishspyagency(ha!
ed.),asapart-timeconsultantandfull-timetraitor.Therareradioactiveisotopethat
poisonedhimismadeonlyatclosednuclearfacilitiescontrolledbytheCIAinaproperty
ownedbylong-sincedeceasedRussianoligarchBorisBerezovskyinNazi-occupiedKiev.

AnindependentinvestigationconductedbyRussiasInvestigativeCommitteehasconcluded
thatBerezovskyhadtheswornenemyoftheRussianstateLitvinenkokilledtodiscreditPutin.

BerezovskysubsequentlyoffedhimselfinMarch2013,likelyoutofshameforbetrayingPutin
andcountry.Apost-mortemexaminationcarriedoutbyHomeOfficepathologistsfoundthe
causeofdeathwasconsistentwiththerealitythats***happens.

From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 01/26/201602:14:43PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue17

Viewthisemailinyour
browser

January26,2016--Volume13,Issue17

INTHISISSUE
*RussianmilitarysairoperationsshedlightondifficultiesinSyria
*KremlinshiftsstrategytolayingfoundationsforfifthcolumninUkraine

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)

RussiasAirOperationsinSyriaExposeProblems

MoscowsmilitaryoperationsinUkraineandSyriaexposeafundamentaldistinctionin
approach:tryingtoextractitselffromtheformerwhileshowingnosignofapplyingthat
strategytothelatter.Officially,analliswellmessageispromulgatedbytheRussianpolitical-
militaryleadershipconcerningtheaircampaigninSyria.Perhapscarriedawaybytheeuphoria
ofconductingitsfirstout-of-areaoperationssinceAfghanistan,speculationhasarisenabout
theopeningofanewairbaseinSyria,closetotheTurkishborder,promptingdenialsfrom
officials(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January25).Themilitarymediaworks
tirelesslytoadvancetheideathattheaircampaignisworking,withoutreallyaddressing
underlyingissuessuchasstrategicaimsandobjectives,oracknowledgingthelimitedscopeof
thecloseairsupportfordisparategroundforcesgroupings(KrasnayaZvezda,January24).

Somebreachesintheratheroptimisticnarrativehaveappeared,andmaywellpresagethe
exposureofdeepersystemicproblems.ThefirststemsfromwhytheAerospaceForces
(VozdushnoKosmicheskikhSilVKS)anddefenseministry,despitePresidentVladimir
Putinsclaimthattheoperationistemporary,appeartoadoptalessthanhurriedapproach.
Infact,thisoriginatesinthetermsofthebilateralagreementthatlaidthebasisforRussian
operationsinSyria.TheRussiangovernmenttooktheunusualstepofreleasingthecontentof
theagreementreachedandsignedinDamascusonAugust26,2015.Accordingtothe
bilateralagreement,theVKScanusetheLatakiaairbaseindefinitelyandfreeofcharge.
Moscowcansendanyweapons,equipmentandmaterialsthatitdeemsnecessary,whileall
militarypersonnelenjoydiplomaticimmunity.TheagreementreachedinDamascusstipulates
thatRussiascontributiontoacampaignagainstterrorismandextremismisforanindefinite
period.Russiancommentatorsregardthetreatyasfairlystandard,anddownplaythe
indefiniteperiod,assimplyavoidingsettingdeadlinesfortheoperations(Gazeta,January
15).

WhiletheVKSmaybeinnohurrytoenditsoperationsinSyria,itisclearthatthe
interventionmarksashiftinRussianmilitarypolicyaswellasprovidinganewtestingground
foradvancedsystems.Acommentaryin NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniyenotedthat
theVKSoperationinSyriaisquiteunlikeRussiasuseofmilitaryforcesincetheendofthe
ColdWar.ItalsonotedthatsomeexpertshadlabelleditasthefirstRussianwarinAmerican
style,relyingonairpower,long-rangestrikeswithprecisionweapons,andwithminimalrisk
toitstroopsandforces.ThecommentaryfocusedonhowWesternanalystshaveadopteda
broadlypositiveinterpretationoftheRussianmilitaryoperation,whichaccordingtotheauthor
isrootedinthetendencytooverlycompareitwiththeFiveDayWarwithGeorgiainAugust
2008(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January15).

TurningtoconsiderWesterncriticismofRussiasinterventioninSyria,theauthorexplored
analysisbyDouglasBarry,aseniorresearcherattheLondon-basedInternationalInstitutefor
StrategicStudies.BarryacknowledgedtheuseoftheVKShigh-precisionweapons,butwent
ontoaddthatthescaleofaircraftprecisionweapons,reconnaissanceandtargeting
designationpossessedbytheVKSismuchnarrowerthaninWesternmilitaries.Barryalso
arguesthatRussiasuseofUAVshasnotreachedlevelsusedbytheUSanditsalliesin
Afghanistan,astheylackthenecessarylevelofintegrationofairborneandgroundhardware
systems(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January15).Consequently,theauthoragrees
withWesterncomparisonstotheGeorgiaWarinthatoperationsinSyriademonstratesome
advances,butconcludesthattheVKSisstillfarbehindtheUnitedStatesAirForce(USAF).

Russiasuseoflong-rangeaviationtofireair-launchedcruisemissileswaspresentedinthe
militarypressasastepforwardandademonstrationofadvancedcapabilities.However,
Major-GeneralAnatoliyKonovalov,theforcesdeputycommander,admittedtherewere
someproblems.DuringaninterviewwithEkhoMoskvyonDecember19,Konovalovwas
askedtosummarizetheperformanceoflong-rangeaviationinSyria.Konovalovsaid:There
areproblemswiththeaircraft.Inparticular,intheuseofair-launchedcruisemissiles.Weare
nowbusyworkingonthem.Ibelieveweshallgetridoftheproblemsthatarosewiththeuse
ofair-launchedcruisemissilesinthenearfuture(EkhoMoskvy,December19).

UndoubtedlyRussiasmilitaryoperationsinSyriaprovideatestinggroundforitsweapons
systemsandhardware.Althoughnottestedassuch,thedeploymentofsophisticatedair
defensesystemsinthetheaterofoperationshasraisedconcerninWashingtonandonthepart
ofNATO.InresponsetothedowningoftheRussianSu-24MbytheTurkishAirForcein
November2015,MoscowreportedlyorderedthedeploymentofS-300Fort,theship-based
versionoftheS-300airdefensesystem,alongwiththemoreadvancedS-400Triumf.NATO
Secretary-GeneralJensStoltenbergreactedtothesenewdeployments,statingthatitfitsa
patternofMoscowdeployingmodernweaponsinconflictzonesclosetotheAlliance.
Stoltenbergsaid,WehaveforalongtimeseenthatRussiaisdeployingadvancedweaponsin
Syria,intheeasternpartoftheMediterraneanandalongtheborderswithNATOcountriesin
Europe.Furthermore,hereferredtoRussianmilitaryactivityintheBalticandBlackseas,as
wellasintheCrimea,Allofthis,partofthesystem,whichindicatesthatRussiaisexpanding
capacitytointroduceano-flyzone.AndthisisoneofthereasonsthatNATOadapts,though
leavingunclearhowtheAllianceisadapting(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,
December4,2015).

Ofcourse,notalltheproblemstheRussianmilitaryfacesinSyriaaresolelyofamilitary
naturetherearenumerouscontradictionsintheoperation,andunexplainedtwists.Alexander
Khramchikhin,deputyheadoftheMoscow-basedInstituteofPoliticalandMilitaryAnalysis,
referstotheideaofdirectsupportforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadandhisopponentsas
atypeofschizophrenia,thoughheacknowledgesthatMoscowseekstosupportthesworn
enemiesofTurkeyaspaybackfortheSu-24M(RBK,January13).

InanarticleexaminingthenewRussianNationalSecurityStrategy,AlexanderKonovalov,
presidentoftheInstituteforStrategicAssessments,suggeststhattheSyriacampaigncannot
reallybeexplainedbythestrategy.HeconcludesthatPutinfacesachoiceofthreeoptions:
(1)Useanyopportunitytoendthecampaignandsaveface(2)Continuewiththesame
intensityandresultsor,(3)Expandsignificantlytheoperationtoincludegroundforces
(Kommersant,January18).

--RogerMcDermott

MoscowShiftingfromDirectAggressiontoBuildingaFifthColumninUkraine

GivenMoscowsdesiretogetoutfromunderthesanctionsregimeandthealmostequal
desireofsomeWesterngovernmentstodeclarevictoryandliftit,theKremlinappearslikely
todojustenoughtoclaimthatithasfulfilledtheMinskAccordsandtheWesttoacceptthat
assufficienttoendtheUkrainiancrisis.Inthatevent,itisanearcertaintytheWestwillagain
focusonMoscowandlookawayfromUkraineeventhoughCrimeawillremainunder
Russianoccupation.Andasaresult,Ukrainewillbeleftlargelyonitsownagainstwhathas
alwaysbeenpartoftheKremlinsstrategyagainstit,andwhatseemscertaintobethecenter
ofthatstrategyinthefuture:theuseofaRussian-organizedfifthcolumntosubvertUkraine
andpreventitfrommakingthekindofreformsthatwillallowittointegrateintoEurope.

SuchastrategywillbeespeciallyusefultoMoscowbecauseitwillseektopromotetheidea
thatUkrainesproblemsareentirelyofUkrainesownmaking,andthattheWestshouldview
Kyivasapoorpartner,becausewhateverVladimirPutinpromises,hewilltakeback
wheneveritsuitshim,countingontheWestsshortmemoryandonitsdesiretohavegood
relationswithRussia.Further,thestrategyislikelytoworkespeciallywellintheshort-term
becauseoftheenormousproblemsKyivwillfaceinre-integratingtheDonbasproblemsthat
MoscowpropagandistsandtheirfriendsintheWestcancountontrumpetingtotheworldand
exploitingtoheightenotherregionaltensionsinUkraine(Segodnya.ua,January25).

WhatisperhapsmostremarkableisnotthatMoscowismakingthisshiftitisfullyconsistent
withRussiandoctrineandtheRussianpracticeofhybridwarbutratherthatitsagentsare
sobrazenastodeclarethatthisisexactlywhattheyintendtodo.Lastweek,Aleksandr
Zakharchenko,theleaderoftheDonetskseparatists,madeastatementthatdeservesthe
closestattention.OneUkrainiancommentator,YuryUvarov,hasdonesoandhisanalysis
pointstowhybothUkrainiansandWesterngovernmentsshouldbeconcerned(Qha.com.ua,
January20).

Typically,Uvarovsays,Zakharchenkosremarksaresooverthetopthattheycansafelybe
ignoredbutthistimearound,hiswordsappeartohavebeencraftedforhiminMoscowand
pointtoamajorchange.ThisisevidentasZakharchenkosaysthatwhateverhappensinthe
Donbas,protestmovementscouldbesalvationforUkraine.Hegoesontostate:The
presentauthoritiesofUkraineobviouslyareleadingthecountryintotheabyss.Alossof
sovereignty,defactoforeignrule,economicdegradation,andagrowthinpovertyand
unemploymentareallleadingUkrainetowardeconomiccollapseandpoliticalcatastrophe.
Andinthefinalanalysis,todisintegration.

ZakharchenkoaddsthatheandhisregimewillwelcometheappearanceinUkraineofsuch
movementsbutwillnottaketheleadinpromotingthem.Inaddition,hestates,Wevery
muchhopethattheUkrainianpeoplewillwakeupfromtheirapathyandwillbeabletobegin
throughproteststheprocessofchangingUkraineandreturningitintothefamilyofcivilized
peoplesfromtheBanderitedeadenditfindsitselfinnow.Ifthatdoesnthappen,everything
willbeverybad.IcanconfidentlysaythatUkrainemustbechangedorotherwiseitwill
disappear!

Thekeywordshere,Uvarovpointsout,arewillgreet,willnotshowinitiativeintothe
familyofcivilizedpeoplesordisappear.Translatedintothelanguageofpracticalpolitics,this
meansthatRussiawilldoeverythingtosupporttheriseofafifthcolumninUkraine,because
initsview,theonlywayforUkrainetoreturntothefamilyofcivilizednationsisunderthe
controlofRussia.Otherwise,itwilldisappear.AndthatmeansthatMoscowspuppetsin
Ukrainemustfulfilltheirmaintasktobroadentheirelectoralbase,somethingforwhich
thereareobjectivepreconditionsinUkraineitself.

TheKremlinsactionsarelogical,Uvarovsays.Buttheyarebasedonafundamental
mistake,anunderratingofthelevelofUkrainianpatriotism.Heconcludesbysayingtoday,
theUkrainiannationasneverbeforeisunitedandstrong,andaunitedpeoplecannotbe
defeated.

AtleastthreereasonsexistwhyUvarovisquitepossiblytoooptimistic,especiallyiftheWest
turnsitsattentionawayfromUkrainejustasMoscowisincreasingitsinvolvement.Firstofall,
theideaofafifthcolumnworksevenifitdoesntexist.Ifpeoplebegintosuspectthattheir
opponentsarepartofit,thatinandofitselfpoisonspoliticsandmakescooperationalmost
impossible.Second,UvarovistoodismissiveofRussiasopportunitiestostiruptroubleinthis
wayinthepoliticalsphere.Ukraineisunitedinsomeways,butitisalsodividedinmany
othersandRussiacanandwillexploitthis.

Andthird,Uvaroviswrongtolimittheideaofafifthcolumntopoliticalactivism.TheRussian
versionthistimearoundislikelytoincludebothRussian-organizedfalseflagoperationsto
discreditUkrainiannationalistsbypromotingextremistideas,andRussian-organizedbut
nominallyUkrainianparamilitaryunitsthatcanbedeployedtochallengeKyivsauthority(For
adiscussionofthesepossibilitiesandothers,seePaulW.Blackstocksclassicwork, The
StrategyofSubversion,Chicago,1964).

ThoseinclinedtoacceptaslegitimateMoscowsfulfillmentoftheMinskAccordsshould
reflectontheserealities.

--PaulGoble

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Russias Zapad 2013Exercise:LessonsforBalticRegionalSecurity
analyzesindeepandwell-researcheddetaildifferentaspectsofZapad
2013andhowthisexerciserelatestoRussiasmilitarypostureandthe
securityenvironmentinEuropesEast.

Availablenowforfreedownload.

AzerbaijanandtheNewEnergyGeopoliticsofSoutheasternEurope
delvesintoSoutheasternEuropesenergysecurityandthepotential
impactoftheSouthernGasCorridor.Thebookfocusesattentionon
Azerbaijansaspiringroleasanenergysupplierandcontributorto
energysecurity,itsevolvingrelationswithcountriesintheregionand
BakusexpandingrelationswiththeEuropeanUnionandtheUnited
States.

Topurchaseacopy,pleaseclickhere.

InConflictZones,JanuszBugajskienhancesourunderstandingofthe
causesandconsequencesofthecurrentconflictsintheNorth
Caucasusandextrapolateslikelyscenariosintheregionsdevelopment.
HecomparesandcontrastsconditionsintheNorthCaucasuswiththe
formerYugoslavfederationintheWesternBalkans,amulti-ethnicstate
structurethatcouldnotcontaininternallygeneratedpoliticalandethnic
disputes.

Availablenowforfreedownload.

LookforothertitlesintheJamestownStoreatjamestown.org/store.Clickheretofindout
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From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 01/27/201601:01:47PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue18

Viewthisemailinyour
browser

January27,2016--Volume13,Issue18

INTHISISSUE
*UkrainebypassesRussiaviaTrans-CaspianInternationalTransportRoute(TITR)
*MoscowdeploysRussianoligarchstopropupregimesintheNorthCaucasus
*RussiausesGazpromtopressureGeorgia

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)

BypassingRussia,UkraineBecomesAnotherSilkRoadTerminus

Sinceanuprisingunseatedthepro-RussianregimeofUkrainianPresidentViktorYanukovych
inFebruary2014,relationsbetweenKyivandMoscowhavegonefrombadtoworse.
RespondingtoarecentbanofUkrainianimportsandseekingawaytoreachpost-Soviet
CentralAsianstatesandEastAsiawithouttransitingRussia,onJanuary15Ukraine
dispatcheda30-carcontainertrainfromIllichivskalongtheTrans-CaspianInternational
TransportRoute(TITR)onatestjourneythroughGeorgia,AzerbaijanandKazakhstanto
China,utilizingferriesacrosstheCaspianandBlackSeas.WhileUkrainesinitialexpectations
fortheroutearemodest,intimeitcouldbecomeasignificantelementinthemulti-vector
railwaynetworkslowlyemergingacrossEurasia.

BybecominginvolvedwithTITR,currentlyrunningfromChinaviaKazakhstan,Azerbaijan,
GeorgiaandTurkeytoEurope,Ukraineisforgingneweconomicrelationswithpost-Soviet
CaucasianandCentralAsianstatesalongarouteterminatinginChina.TITRisakey
componentinChinas"OneBeltOneRoad"initiativetoestablishmulti-modaltransportlinks
acrossEurasia.WhileUkrainehashadmaritimetradewithChina,thenewraillinebypassing
Russiahaseconomicpotentialforbothstates,aswellasthosealongthewayintheformof
transitfees.

UkrainesinterestintherouteintensifiedafterRussiaonJanuary1bannedmostUkrainian
foodexportsandimposedhighertaxesonthefewremainingindustrialproductsthatUkraine
exportedtotheRussianmarket,thesamedayUkraine'sfree-tradeagreementwiththe
EuropeanUnioncameintoforce.Thefree-tradedeal,signedinJune2014,threemonthsafter
CrimeajoinedRussia,ispartofthebroaderEUAssociationAgreementandgrantsUkraine
tariff-freeaccesstotheEU'smarket,withBrusselsexpectingittoboostUkraine'sstruggling
economy.

UkrainianparticipationinTITRisakeyelementinthecountry'seffortstolessenRussia's
influenceonitseconomybydevelopingtraderoutesinconjunctionwithotherpost-Soviet
statesseekingtoexpandtheirmulti-vectortransportoptions.Beyondtrade,thenewroutehas
strategicimplicationsforUkraine.VadimSidiachenko,theheadoftheeconomicdepartment
oftheUkrainianembassyinAzerbaijan,observed,WhenRussiabannedtransportationof
Ukrainiangoodsthroughtheircountry,theTrans-Caspiancorridorbecamestrategicfor
Ukraine.TheUkrainianembassyiscloselycooperatingwithallAzerbaijan'stransportation
entities,particularlyAzerbaijanRailwaysandthegovernment'sCoordinatingCouncilfor
TransitCargo.WeapplaudasgoodthedecisiontoestablishtheCoordinatingCouncil,
becauseithasbecomeasinglewindowthroughwhichwecansolvetransitissues,wherewe
havealreadysolvedcertainissuesontariffsandtransportation(Trend,January17,2016).

Thefeasibilityofthetraderoutewasfirstdemonstratedlastyear,whenChinasfirsttest
containertrainarrivedintheBakuInternationalSeaTradePortviatherouteinearlyAugust
(Xinhua,August4,2015).Thetrain,carrying82containerson41railcars,departedShihezi,
ChinaonJuly28(AzerNews,August3,2015).

ThenewrouteismoreexpensivethantransitinggoodsthroughRussia.Commentingonthe
launchofthenewrailinitiativetoChinathroughGeorgiaandAzerbaijan,UkrainianPrime
MinisterArseniyYatsenyukremarked,Indevelopingthetrainroute,thefirststepisensuring
aroutethatbypassesRussiaandcreatesalternativesforexportingUkrainiangoods.I'llbe
honest,thefirstphaseisexpensive.Butifweloadthetrainandincreasethevolumeof
traffic,wewillgetthesamelogisticscosts,asbeforetheintroductionofthetransitbanby
Russia(UNIAN,January22,2016).

UkrainianRailwaysActingChairmanAleksandrZavgorodniiprovidedparticularsofthenew
railwayinitiative,saying,ThenewUkrainianferry-traincontainerroute,whichis3,400miles,
willtakeabout1012days.Thetesttrainisonscheduleoperatinginthemodeofapassenger
trainataspeedof50milesanhour.Thisisafairlyhighspeed,whichwillcompetewithroad
transport.Inlaunchingthepilottrainitwasimportanttoworkouttheferrylogistics.Currently
eightferriesareoperatingontheBlackSeaandontheCaspian,13(OdesskaiaZhizn,
January20,2016).

ThepoliticalfalloutfromTITRhasalreadybegun,withpost-Sovietnationsscramblingto
reassureRussiaoftheirbenignintentions.OnJanuary15,KazakhFirstDeputyPrime
MinisterBakytzhanSagintayevsaid,Theissueisnotthatanumberofcountrieshave
gatheredtogetherandarepursuingaweirdpolicyregardingRussiaaimedatmakingitbreak
offrelationshipintheareaoffreetradewithUkraine.Itsabsolutelynotthecase(TASS,
January15,2016).HowRussiawillexpressitsdispleasurewithAzerbaijan,Georgiaand
KazakhstanassistingUkrainebroadenitsexportoptionsbeyondRussiawilleventually
emergeasforMoscowexpressingannoyancewithChinasparticipation,Russiahasfarfewer
cardstoplay.

UkrainesintentionindispatchingitstesttrainisobvioustocircumventRussiasprevious
monopolyofeast-westtradeviatheTran-SiberianRailway,whichheldamonopolyonthe
Eurasiantransitofgoodsformorethanacenturyafteritscompletion.Similarly,Russias
intentionsareequallyevidenttohamstringtheUkrainianeconomybynotonlydeprivingitof
accesstotheRussianmarket,butbybanningtransittodenyUkraineentrytothepromising
marketsofAzerbaijan,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,ChinaandotherAsiancountries.What
remainstobeseenistheformandvolumeofUkrainesAsianTITRtrade,andwhetheritwill
provideKievwithpositivetradebalances,orsimplyturnUkraineintoanotheremporiumof
ChinesegoodsalongtheSilkRoad.

--JohnC.K.Daly

Karachaevo-CherkessiaFacesEconomicUncertainty

OnJanuary19,PresidentVladimirPutinmetwiththegovernorofKarachaevo-Cherkessia,
RashidTemrezov,inMoscow.Temrezovreportedthattherepublicreduceditsdependence
ontheRussianfederalbudgetin2015,andthattaxcollectionratesandtherepublican
economyoverallwerebetterlastyearthanin2014and2013.Newbusinessesand
enterprisesareopeninginKarachaevo-Cherkessia,hesaid,whileinvestorsareproceeding
withtheirinvestmentplansintherepublic(Kremlin,January19).

Karachaevo-Cherkessiasgovernorsoundedparticularlyupbeataboutthesituationinhis
republicbecausehisfirsttermendsinMarchandhehassetouttoprovethatheisincharge
ofthesituation.Inreality,however,2015turnedouttobequitetumultuousfortheauthorities
inKarachaevo-Cherkessia.Ethnicgroupsintherepublicbecamemuchmorepoliticallyactive
comparedtopreviousyears.TheCherkess(Circassians),Abaza,andeventhenormally
complacentethnicRussianscriticizedtherepublicanauthoritiesforthecontinuingdeterioration
oftheeconomyandlackofgovernmentaltransparency.Eventhedominantethnicgroupinthe
republic,theKarachays,ralliedagainsttherepublicangovernor.InDecember,theusually
calmrepublicsawaspecialcounter-insurgencyoperationinwhichthreesuspectedmilitants
werekilled(Politika09.com,January4).

AgainstthebackdropofRussiasdeterioratingeconomicsituation,thepoliticalforcesinthe
republicstartedorganizingachallengetoTemrezovsleadership,withthetwocompeting
Circassianclans,theDerevsandArashukovs,reportedlymakingpeace.Theopposition
amongtheKarachayswasalsosolidified(Politika09.com,January11),reportedlyledbythe
individualswhoareclosetoformerrepublicanpresidentMustafaBatdyev.

Karachaevo-Cherkessiahasnotalwaysbeenrelativelystablecomparedtoitsneighborsinthe
NorthCaucasus,and,infact,wasknownforextremelyvolatileeventsuniquetothis
multiethnicrepublic.Forexample,duringthe1999regionalpresidentialelections,supporters
oftheKarachaycandidate,VladimirSemyonov,clashedwithsupportersoftheCircassian
candidate,VladislavDerev,overtheresults,nearlysendingtherepublicintoadownward
spiralofviolence.SemyonovrejectedcallsbyMoscowtostepdowntocalmthesituation
andtheCircassiansthreatenedtosecedefromKarachaevo-Cherkessiaandformtheirown
autonomousregionwithintheRussianFederation.Semyonovultimatelywonthestandoffand
ruledtherepublicforonepresidentialterm.

Anotherunprecedentedeventtookplaceintherepublicinthefallof2004,whentheson-in-
lawofMustafaBatdyev,whowasthenKarachaevo-Cherkessiaspresident,andhis
associateskilledandburnedseveralprominentlocalbusinessmen.Relativesofthevictims
stagedaprotestintherepublicancapitalCherkessk,andinresponsetothegovernments
inactionandattemptstocoverupthecrime,stormedthegovernmentbuilding,forcingMustafa
Batdyevtoflee.Theprotestersoccupiedrepublicangovernmentbuildingsanddemandeda
fairinvestigationandBatdyevsresignation.

Thus,seeminglyquietKarachaevo-Cherkessiahasanextremelyvolatilerecenthistory.Some
oftherepublicslargeenterprises,suchastheKavkaztsementcementproducingplant,have
announcedlargelayoffs(Politika09.com,January13).UnderpressurefromMoscow,the
republicangovernmentreduceditsbudget,which,eventhoughitmayhavepleasedthe
Russiangovernment,furtherexacerbatedthesituationintherepublic.Moscowthendecided
tocometotherescueofKarachaevo-CherkessiasgovernmentbyusingRussianoligarchs.
TheRussianJoint-StockFinancialCorporation SistemaboughtYuzhny,thelargestclosed
groundagriculturalbusinessinRussia,whichislocatedinKarachaevo-Cherkessia.The
businesswasinitiallyvaluedatnearly$100million,butmayhavebeensoldforamuchlower
price.TheenterprisewillalsoreregisteritselfinKarachaevo-CherkessiainsteadofMoscow
andpaytaxeslocally,whichislikelytoprovideaheftyboosttotherepublicanbudget.
VladimirYevtushenkovsSistemareportedlyhasgoneonaspreeofacquiringagricultural
enterprisesinsouthernRussia,apparentlytakingadvantageofthedireconditionmanyofthese
enterprisesarein(KavkazskayaPolitika,January21).

LargeacquisitionsinRussia,especiallyiftheyaretakingplaceintheNorthCaucasus,are
almostalwaysapprovedordirectedbytheRussianpoliticalestablishment.Giventhecurrent
economicdownturn,Moscowscoffersarequicklydryingup,duetothelowenergyprices,
economicsanctionsandabsenceofeconomicreforms.TheRussiangovernmentsstrategyof
providingfundstotherepublicangovernorsintheNorthCaucasusandreceivingtheirloyalty
inreturnalsoappearstobechanging.Underthenewcrisisconditions,themoneyofRussian
oligarchsisoneofthesourcestheRussiangovernmentiscountingontoensurethattheNorth
CaucasusremainsfinanciallydependentonMoscow.However,itisunclearwhether,giventhe
currenteconomicdownturn,theRussianoligarchswillbeabletoinvestanysubstantial
amountsofresourcesintheNorthCaucasustokeepthelocalelitesloyaltotheRussian
government.

--ValeryDzutsati

GazpromPresentsHarshUltimatumtoGeorgia

TheVicePrimeMinisterandMinisterofEnergyofGeorgia,KakhaKaladze,andatop
officialattheRussianenergygiantGazprom,YelenaBurmistrova,failedtoreachanagreement
duringthelatestroundoftalksinVienna(Rustavi2,January21).TheGeorgianMinistryof
Energyissuedastatementattheconclusionofthetalksthatcontainedmorediplomatic
declarationsthanactualinformation.Thesubjectofthetalkshasnotchangedandtheywill
continue,thestatementsaid(Energy.gov.ge,January20).

Earlier,KaladzerepeatedlyemphasizedthattheprimarysubjectofthetalkswithGazprom
wastheRussianproposalessentiallyademandtomonetizetheGeorgianpaymentforthe
RussiangastransittoArmenia(CivilGeorgia,January12).

AccordingtotheagreementbetweenRussia,GeorgiaandArmeniathatwassignedin1992
immediatelyafterthedisbandmentoftheUSSR,Georgiatakes10percentoftheRussiangas
suppliestoArmeniaaspaymentfortransit.Theagreementwasregularlyrenewedeveryyear
since,withoutanyofthepartiesquestioningit(Vestikavkaza.ru,October1,2015).

However,thefallinenergypricesandthecorrespondingfallofthepricefortransit(a
relationshipwidelyacceptedworldwide),combinedwiththeliftingoftheIransanctionsand
theriseofRussianambitionsintheregion,promptedMoscowtochangeitstacticsanddeliver
aharshultimatumtoGeorgiathroughGazprom.Gazpromisrightlyconsideredtobethe
Kremlinsgeopoliticaltool.

KaladzeneverconcealedthatduringhisthreepreviousmeetingswiththeheadofGazprom,
AlekseiMiller,thelatterinsistedonthemonetizationofpaymentforthetransitofRussian
naturalgastoArmenia.GazpromsCEOcitedtheEuropeanEnergyCharterandtheWorld
TradeOrganizations(WTO)rulestosupporthisclaim.Ironically,Millercitedthevery
internationalagreementsthatGazpromhasrepeatedlybrokenbyintroducingembargosand
takingotherextravagantstepsagainstGeorgia,amongothercountries(seeEDM,March28,
2006).

IftheGeorgiansidefailstoacceptGazpromsconditions,thecompanythreatenstosuspend
thetransitofgastoArmeniaviaGeorgiaentirely,instead,providingsuppliestoArmeniafrom
Iranviathecompanyspipeline.AccordingtoKaladze,monetizationofthepaymentforgas
transitisnotbeneficialtotheGeorgianside,butheispreparedtoconsideritifTbilisihas
someguaranteesthatitwillnotlosepartofthenaturalgasaftermonetizationandretainthe
energybalanceinthecountry(Ipress.ge,December10,2015).

However,theproblemisthatMiller,whorepresentsMoscow,ispreparedtosellnaturalgas
toGeorgiaonlyinexchangeforcertainconcessions.AsindependentanalystDavidAvalishvili
stated,Georgiawill,ofcourse,receivethepaymentforthetransitofnaturalgastoArmenia
accordingtotheinternationaltariffs,butitishighlyquestionablewhetherthecountrywillbe
abletobuythesame10percentoftransitedgastoArmeniafromRussiaforthatmoney.
Moscowwillgiveitsconsenttothatonlyinexchangeforarangeofgeopoliticalconcessions,
forexample,theopeningoftherailwaylinkviaoccupiedAbkhaziatowardtheRussianbases
inArmeniagivingmonopolystatustoGazpromontheGeorgianmarketorevenhalting
cooperationwithNATOandtheEU(AuthorsInterview,January22).

AcolumnistatthenewsagencyGHN,GelaKalandadze,saysthatGazpromhasserious
trumpcardsinthisgame.Firstofall,GeorgiacannotimportmoregasfromAzerbaijanusing
thetwoexistinggaspipelinesatleastuntil2019,whenthethirdpipeline,ShahDeniz2,
launches.Currentlytheexistingpipelinesareoperatingatthelimitoftheircapacity.Georgia
receivesabout9millioncubicmetersofnaturalgasperdayduringwintertimethroughthem.
Inaddition,thecountryreceives2.5millioncubicmetersofgasaspaymentforthetransitof
RussiangastoArmenia.Jointlyitis11.5millioncubicmeters,whichisaminimalamountof
gasthatisneededforthenormaloperationoftheGeorgianenergysystem,theexpertsaid
(AuthorsInterview,January22).

AccordingtoKalandadze,Georgianauthoritiesfindthemselvesbetweentwobadandvery
badchoices.Theexpertstates,IfGazprommakesgoodonitsthreat,suspendsgastransit
and/orrefusestosellnaturalgastoGeorgiaaftermonetization,itwilldestabilizetheenergy
balanceinthecountry.Gasandelectricitytariffswillinevitablyrise,whichwillproduce
discontentamongthepeopleandthedeclineofpopularityoftherulingcoalitionGeorgian
Dream.Allofthesewillhappenduringtheyearofparliamentaryelections.Gazprombetson
this,demandinggeopoliticalconcessionstotheKremlinfromthegovernmentofGiorgi
Kvirikashvili(AuthorsInterview,January22).

TheexpertdoubtsthattheKremlinsthreattostopgastransittoArmeniaviaGeorgiaisa
bluff,GazpromcansendhalfofthegasthatArmenianeedsfromIranalreadythisyear.The
remainingdeficitofenergyinArmeniathiswintercanbealleviatedwithaquickexportof
othertypesofenergyviaIran,suchasheavyfueloilthatcanbeusedatelectricplantsthatuse
naturalgas.Also,thenuclearstationinArmeniamayincreaseitselectricityoutput.When
Russiangeopoliticalinterestsandachancetochangetheforeignpolicyorientationofthe
Georgiangovernmentareatstake,Moscowiswillingtosustainsomemateriallosses.The
sanctionsfromIranhavebeenlifted.ThethroughputofthegaspipelinefromIrantoArmenia
canbedoubledbynextwinter.AlsoitshouldnotbeforgottenthatanotherRussiancompany,
Inter-Rao,isthesupplierofelectricitytoGeorgiaanditisalsoactingintheinterestsofthe
Kremlin.

Kalandadzestatesthatinthecurrentsituation,Georgianauthoritieshaveonlyonechoiceif
theydonotwanttocapitulatebeforetheKremlin.Theyshouldhonestlytellthepublicthat
weallneedtobepatientandenduredifficultiesatleastuntil2019-2020whenGeorgiawillbe
abletoreceivemorenaturalgasfromAzerbaijanviathenewgaspipelinethatisunder
construction,theexperttoldJamestown.

UponhisreturnfromthetalksinVienna,MinisterKaladzetoldjournaliststhatGeorgiastill
receives10percentofthenaturalgasthatflowsfromRussiatoArmeniaviaGeorgia.The
Georgiangovernmentdidnotagreetomonetization,becausethereisnoguaranteethatthe
countrywillbeabletobuythesameamountofnaturalgasorthatGazpromwillagreetosell
gaswithoutachangeinGeorgiasforeignpolicy(Netgazeti.ge,January20).

ItappearsthatGeorgianauthoritiesarehopingthatMoscowwillnottakesucharadicalstep
asstoppingthetransitofnaturalgasviatheGeorgianterritory.However,givenhowoftenthe
RussiangovernmenthasusedGazpromasaninstrumentofgeopoliticalpressurepreviously,
thishopemaybeexcessivelyoptimistic.Russiasviewoftheissuewillbeclarifiedinthenext
fewmonthsorevenweeks.

--GiorgiMenabde

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TheEurasiaDailyMonitorisapublicationoftheJamestownFoundation.Theopinionsexpressedinit
arethoseoftheindividualauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseofTheJamestown
Foundation.IfyouhaveanyquestionsregardingthecontentofEDM,orifyouthinkthatyouhave
receivedthisemailinerror,pleaserespondtopubs@jamestown.org.

MoreJamestownAnalysisonRussiaandEurasia
Russias Zapad 2013Exercise:LessonsforBalticRegionalSecurity
analyzesindeepandwell-researcheddetaildifferentaspectsofZapad
2013andhowthisexerciserelatestoRussiasmilitarypostureandthe
securityenvironmentinEuropesEast.

Availablenowforfreedownload.

AzerbaijanandtheNewEnergyGeopoliticsofSoutheasternEurope
delvesintoSoutheasternEuropesenergysecurityandthepotential
impactoftheSouthernGasCorridor.Thebookfocusesattentionon
Azerbaijansaspiringroleasanenergysupplierandcontributorto
energysecurity,itsevolvingrelationswithcountriesintheregionand
BakusexpandingrelationswiththeEuropeanUnionandtheUnited
States.

Topurchaseacopy,pleaseclickhere.

InConflictZones,JanuszBugajskienhancesourunderstandingofthe
causesandconsequencesofthecurrentconflictsintheNorth
Caucasusandextrapolateslikelyscenariosintheregionsdevelopment.
HecomparesandcontrastsconditionsintheNorthCaucasuswiththe
formerYugoslavfederationintheWesternBalkans,amulti-ethnicstate
structurethatcouldnotcontaininternallygeneratedpoliticalandethnic
disputes.

Availablenowforfreedownload.

LookforothertitlesintheJamestownStoreatjamestown.org/store.Clickheretofindout
howtoreceivetheseandotherbooksandOccasionalReportsforfreebyjoiningthe
FriendsofJamestownprogram.

TheJamestownFoundation
111116thSt.,NW
Suite#320
Washington,DC20036
202-483-8888(phone)
202-483-8337(fax)
http://www.jamestown.org
Copyright(c)1983-2016TheJamestownFoundation.

UnauthorizedreproductionorredistributionofEDMisstrictlyprohibitedbylaw.

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Youarereceivingthisemailbecauseyousubscribedtothispublication

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From: Washingtonpost<email@e.washingtonpost.com>
Senttime: 01/26/201605:56:43AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: TheDaily202:HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry

ViewTheDaily202ontheWeb

ShareonTwitter ShareonFacebook

HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry
HillaryspeaksduringaDemocratictownhallinDesMoineslastnight.(PatrickT.Fallon/Bloomberg)

THEBIGIDEA:

HillaryClintonsaidlastnightthatshelovesthenewBernieSandersadsettoSimonand
Garfunkelsinging,TheyveallcometolookforAmerica.Thenshetriedtoofferareality
check.

Now,look,shesaidduringatownhallinDesMoines.Youcampaigninpoetry.You
governinprose.Andweneedalotmorepoetryinthiscampaign.ButIbelievethatImthe
betterpersontobetheDemocraticnominee,andthecommanderinchief.

Thecampaign-in-poetry,govern-in-prosetropewascoinedbythelateMarioCuomo,the
liberalNewYorkgovernor.WasitacoincidencethatCuomosson,Chris,wasmoderating
theeventforCNN?

ForClinton,itgavefreshlifetoamantrathatsheunsuccessfullytriedtouseasacudgel
againstthen-Sen.Obamain2008."Youcampaignwithpoetry,butyougovernwithprose,
sheoftensaid,downplayinghisrhetoricalabilities.

Inaninterviewpublishedearlieryesterday,PresidentObamadismissedcomparisonsof
Sanderstohimselforthiscampaignto2008."Idon'tthinkthat'strue,"ObamatoldPolitico.
HesaidthefactthatClintonknows"everypolicyinsideandoutcouldmakehermore
cautious,andhercampaignmoreprosethanpoetry."

Justlikelasttime,Clinton,lockedinaneck-and-neckraceinIowa,istryingtograbthe
mantleofchangelateinthegame.Lastnight,shehadamomentthatmighthelp.Afirst-time
caucus-goerwhosaidhesleaningtowardSanderstoldClintonthatmanyofhisfriendsfind
hertobedishonestandinauthentic.Ivebeenonthefrontlinesofchangeandprogress
sinceIwasyourage,shereplied.Ivetakenonthestatusquotimeandtimeagain.The
crowdlovedit.

Thetwonewsiestquotesfromthenight

Sandersonhisambitiousplans:"Yes,wewillraisetaxes.Yeswewill."

Clintononheremailserver:Imnotwillingtosayitwasanerrorinjudgmentbecause
nothingIdidwaswrong.

WHILEYOUWERESLEEPING:
--FederalofficesinD.C.willremainclosedtodayasthecityrecoversfromthe
snowstorm.Soiseverymajorschoolsystemintheregion.(Listhere.)

Metromostlyresumedrailserviceat5a.m.ButitcouldnotopentheSilverLine,and
atthelastminutethetransitagencysaidworkersareunabletorestoretrainserviceat
fourOrangeLinestationsthatwereexpectedtoreopen:Vienna,DunnLoring,West
FallsChurchandEastFallsChurch.Busservicewillbeexpandedoverthecourseof
today,althoughitisstillextremelylimited.(Thelatestontheclean-upeffortishere.)
Tragedy1:AsnowplowhitapedestrianwalkingdownthestreetinMontgomery
Countyabout8p.m.Themansinjuriesaredescribedassignificantbutnotlife
threatening.(MartinWeil)
Tragedy2:AfamilyinNewJerseywastryingtodigitswayoutwhenthechillbecame
toomuchtohandle.Themotherandherchildrenages1and3huddledinthe
carwiththeenginerunningtokeepwarm.Thekidsfathertriedtoclearthesnow
outside.Butthetailpipewascloggedwithsnow,pushingdeadlycarbonmonoxidegas
intothecar.Whenthefatherwenttocheckonthem,hecouldnotwakethemup.
(LindseyBever)
Today'sweather:Ourwarmingandmeltingtrendpicksupanothernotchas
temperaturessurgeaheadofanapproachingcoldfront,theCapitalWeatherGang
forecasts.Partlytomostlycloudyskieswithwarmermorningtemperaturesallowhighs
toreachthemid-to-upper40s.Aslightchanceofrainshowersshowupbylate
afternoonintoevening."

--Obamabannedsolitaryconfinementforjuvenilesinfederalprisons,sayingthe
practiceisoverusedandhasthepotentialfordevastatingpsychologicalconsequences.In
anop-edthatappearsintoday'sPost,thepresidentoutlinesaseriesofexecutiveactions
thatalsoprohibitfederalcorrectionsofficialsfrompunishingprisonerswhocommit"low-
levelinfractions"withsolitaryconfinement."Thenewrulesalsocallforexpandingtreatment
formentallyillprisoners,"JulietEilperinscoops."Whilethepresidentsreformsapply
broadlytotheroughly10,000federalinmatesservingtimeinsolitaryconfinement,thereare
onlyahandfulofjuvenileoffendersplacedinrestrictivehousingeachyear.Between
September2014andSeptember2015,federalauthoritieswerenotifiedofjust13juveniles
whowereputinsolitaryinitsprisons."Readtheop-edhere.

--Thecreatoroftheanti-PlannedParenthoodvideoswasindictedonfelony
charges."AHoustongrandjurythatwasinvestigatingaccusationsofcriminalmisconduct
againstPlannedParenthoodinsteadindictedtheleaderofananti-abortiongroupthat
recordedcovertvideosoftheorganizationsemployees,"DaniellePaquettereports."Harris
CountyDistrictAttorneyDevonAndersonsaidDavidDaleiden,thedirectoroftheCenterfor
MedicalProgress,facesafelonychargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecordanda
misdemeanorcountrelatedtobuyinghumantissue.SandraMerritt,oneofDaleidens
employees,wasalsoindictedonachargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecord.The
grandjuryclearedPlannedParenthoodGulfCoastofanywrongdoing.TexasGov.Greg
Abbottsaid,however,thattheinspectorgeneralofthestatesHealthandHumanServices
CommissionandtheTexasattorneygeneralsofficewouldcontinuetoinvestigatePlanned
Parenthoodsactions."

--OneweekbeforeIowa,abrandnewWashingtonPost/ABCNewspollshows
DonaldTrumpsolidifyinghisnationallead.RepublicansseeTrumpasthestrongest
candidateonmajorissuesandbyfarthemostelectableinthelargefieldofGOPhopefuls,
DanBalzandScottClementwrite.ThebusinessmogulleadsthenationalGOPfieldby16
points,at37percent,withTedCruzplacing2nd,at21percent.MarcoRubioisin3rdwith
11percent,followedbyBenCarson(7percent)andJebBush(5percent).Trumps
supportersaremorecommittedtohimthanthoseofhisrivals,with57percentsayingthey
willdefinitelyvoteforhim(comparedto34percentforalltheothercandidates).Inabig
shift,6of10RepublicansseeTrumpasmostlikelytowintheGOPnod,andTheDonald
leadsamongalldemographicgroups(includingwhiteevangelicals,thoughhisstrongest
supportcomesfromthosewithincomeunder$50,000).Trumpssuccessappearsbolstered
bythefindingthat9in10GOPerssaythecountryisseriouslyonthewrongtrack,and8in
10aredissatisfiedwiththefederalgovernment.Seethefullresultshere.

--TheresultsaremuchcloserinIowa,whereTrumpleadsCruzby2points(31to29
percent)amonglikelyRepublicancaucus-goers,accordingtonewnumbers
releasedthismorningbyQuinnipiacUniversity.Rubioplaces3rdwith13percentwith
noothercandidatebreaking7percent.TheresultsareprettymuchthesameastheQpolls
Jan.11survey.Only2percentareundecided,though39percentofthosewhopickeda
candidatemightchangetheirminds.

--TheDemocraticcontestintheHawkeyeStateisalsonarrowing.Clintonleads
Sandersby6points(48to42percent),downfrom14pointsinearlyDecember,according
toaFoxNewspollreleasedlastnight.Bernieisgainingamongmen(a2-pointDecember
edgegrewisa12-pointadvantagenow),whileHillaryislosinggroundamongthose45and
olderandthosewithcollegedegrees.Nationally,Clintonsnumbersarealsoslipping,with
49percentsupportingher(downfrom54percenttwoweeksago)comparedto37percent
forSanders(alsodown,from39percent).Undecidedsrosefrom2to10percent.TheFox
NewsPollsaysthattheClintonerosioncomespartiallyfromfallingsupportamongblack
voters,67percentofwhomnowbackher(comparedto78percenttwoweeksagoand84
percentinDecember).

WelcometoTheDaily202,withcontributionsfromMichaelSmith.Signuptoreceivethe
newsletter.Programmingnote:Wearelaunchinganewback-endsystemtoprepareand
publishthismorning.Itshouldnotimpactyouruserexperience.But,ifitdoes,pleaseflag
anyissuestopowerpost@washpost.com.Thankyouforreading.

GETSMARTFAST:

1. TheSupremeCourtruledthatteenagerssentencedtomandatorylifesentencesfor
murdermusthaveachancetoargueforrelease.Theruling,whichisretroactive,could
affectasmanyas1,500inmatesnationwide.(RobertBarnes)

2. SCOTUSalsoupheldaFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionrulethat
electricitygeneratorshate.The6-2decisionisawinforObamaandthe
environmentalists.(RobertBarnes)

3. NewHampshirehasdesignatedtwojudgestohearvoterandballotchallenges
duringtheFeb.9primary,whenanewvoterIDlawgoesintoeffect.(AP)

4. Atleast20werekilledwhenISISmilitantssetoffmultiplebombsatagovernment-run
securitycheckpointinHoms,Syria.(AP)

5. TheTalibanclaimedresponsibilityafteranAfghanpolicemanfatallyshot10ofhis
fellowofficersinKandaharbeforefleeing.(AP)

6. TheU.N.willconveneSyrianpeacetalksonFriday,butPresidentBasharal-
Assadsgovernmentandhisopponentswillnolongermeetface-to-face,whichwas
partoftheoriginalplan.(LizSly)

7. JohnKerry,meetingwithCambodianleaders,expressedconcernoverthe
governmentsrecordonhumanrightsandcorruption.Thevisitfocusedontradeand
investment.(CarolMorello)
8. Theownerofagunshopandhissonwerekilledduringashootoutwithtwo
customers,whowereinjuredinthegunfire,afteranargumentovera$25fee.(Sarah
Larimer)

9. Federalauthoritiesaresearchingforthreemenwhoescapedfromamaximum-
securityprisoninSouthernCalifornia.(PeterHolley)

10. AirbusisoneofseveralcompaniesalreadytryingtosellproductstoIrannowthat
economicsanctionshavebeenlifted.(NewYorkTimes)

11. TheUniversityofMissouriprofessorwhocalledfor"muscle"topushoutstudent
journaliststryingtocovercampusprotestswaschargedwithassault.(SusanSvrluga)

12. Indianaseconomylostasmuchas$60millionin2015whenseveralorganizations
decidednottohosteventsinIndianapolisbecauseofthestatescontroversialreligious
libertylaw.(AP)

13. ScientistsfoundevidenceofamasscareinKenya10,000yearsago,makingitthe
oldestactofhumanwarfare.(Reuters)

POWERPLAYERSINTHENEWS:

1. Sen.EdwardMarkey(D-Mass.)putaholdonPresidentObama'snomineetohead
theFDAbecausehewantstheagencytodomoreabouttheabuseofopioid
painkillers.(BradyDennis)
2. MartinShkreli,theex-biotechexecutivefacingfraudcharges,gotpermissionfroma
judgetotraveltoD.C.totestifyondrugpricingbeforetheHouseCommitteeon
OversightandGovernmentReformonFeb.4.(Bloomberg)
3. ScottWalkerlistedhisthree-bedroomWisconsinhousefor$338,000.Helivesinthe
governor'smanion,andtweetedthathe'slookingto"downsize"nowthatheandhis
wifeareemptynesters.(Politico)
4. ZephyrTeachout,theprotestcandidateagainstGov.AndrewCuomo(D-N.Y.)inthe
2014primary,isrunningtosucceedretiringRepublicanRep.Chris
Gibson.(PoughkeepsieJournal)
5. GeorgeH.W.Bushandhiswife,Barbara,calledNikkiHaleytocongratulateherfor
herStateoftheUnionresponse.(CharlestonPostandCourier)
6. BritishexplorerHenryWorsley,attemptingthefirstunassistedsolocrossingof
Antarctica,died71daysafterstartinghisjourney.Hewaswithin30milesofhis
target.(BrianMurphy)

MOREONTHEREPUBLICANRACE--

CRUZ,SLIPPING,ISTRYINGTOREGAINHISFOOTINGINIOWAAGAINSTTRUMP:

1. Hiscampaignspentyesterdaydescribinghimas"theunderdog."(RobertCostaand
PhilipRucker)
2. TheTexassenatorwarnedagroupofpastorsinaclosed-doormeetingthat,"IfDonald
winsIowa,herightnowhasasubstantialleadinNewHampshire.Ifhewentontowin
NewHampshireaswelltheresaverygoodchancehecouldbeunstoppableand
beournominee.AndthenextsevendaysinIowawilldeterminewhetherornotthat
happens."(KatieZezima)
3. TheCruzcampaignlaunchedanattackadagainstTrump's"NewYorkvalues."It
includesanoldclipofTrumpsayingthatheispro-choiceacrosstheboardandsaying
"howstupidarethepeopleofIowa."(Watchhere.)
4. ACruzSuperPAClaunchedthreeattackadsagainstTrumpaspartofa$2.5million
buy.Onealsohighlightshispastsupportforpartial-birthabortion,usingthesame
"MeetthePress"interviewasinthecampaign'sad.Anotherspotshowsaclipof
TrumppraisingCruzin2014.AthirdslamsTrumpforbackinguniversalhealthcare,or
"Trumpcare."
5. Aseparatepro-CruzPAClaunchedaradioadinIowatodefendhisethanolstance.
(DavidWeigel)
6. MarcoRubioattackedCruzonFoxNewsforhislawclientswhileinprivate
practice.WhenTedCruzhadtochooseasalawyer,hewaschoosingtorepresent
theChinese,"Rubiosaid."HerepresentedaChinesecompanythatstolesecretsand
aproductfromanAmericancompany.Soyoucan'tgoaroundsayingyou'retoughon
Chinabutthenhavealegalrecordinwhichyouwerepaidalotofmoneytodefendthe
ChinesewhohadtakenaproductawayfromanAmericanunjustly,unfairlyand
illegally.(Watchhere.)

THEDAILYTRUMP:

1. AtopaidetoSen.JeffSessions(R-Ala.),StephenMiller,willjoinTrumpscampaign
asaseniorpolicyadviser.(Costa)

2. TheformerSouthCarolinaRepublicanstaterepresentativewhocalledNikkiHaleya
raghead,JakeKnotts,endorsedTrump.(PhilipRucker)
3. TrumptauntedMichaelBloombergonCNN:"I'dbeathim.Iwouldlovehimtodoit
actually.Youknow,weusedtobefriends.Iguesswe'renotfriendsanymore."

4. DonaldRumsfeld,alongtimeadversaryofBush41buttheDefenseSecretaryto
Bush43,saidJebisnotconnectingbecausetherearesomepeoplethatare
uncomfortablewithadynasty.RumsfeldtoldtheTodayshowthatTrumphasa
touchedanerveinourcountry.

KASICHRISING,CHRISTIEFADINGINNEWHAMPSHIRE:

1. TheBostonGlobeendorsedKasich.TheBostonHeraldendorsedChristie.
2. Kasichisgoingall-inontheGraniteState.AfterThursday'sIowadebate,hewillnot
leaveNewHampshireuntiltheprimary.Anotherpollyesterday,fromFranklinPierce
University,puttheOhiogovernoraheadoftherestoftheestablishmentcontendersin
thestate,with12percent.(EdO'Keefe)
3. Christie'sfavorabilityhasdroppedfrom53%lastmonthto41%nowamongNew
HampshireRepublicans,perCNN:"Hehasbeencrucifiedoverthelastfewweeks,"
saidMikeDennehy,anunaffiliatedRepublicanoperativeinthestate."It'sashamefor
Christiebecausehereallydidhavemomentum."Dennehycamehomefromworkone
nighttotwocampaignmailersattackingChristie'srecord.Heshruggeditoff,walked
insideandflippedonhisPandora.Thefirstadtointerrupthisstreamingmusic:an
attackonChristie.Helatergrabbedhisremoteandflippedonthenews.Therewere
back-to-backadstargetingChristie.(CNN)

MOREONTHEDEMOCRATICRACE:

1. SouthCarolinaStateRep.JustinT.Bamberg,thelawyerforWalterScott's
family,switchedhissupportfromClintontoSanders.(VanessaWilliams)
2. BillwillflytoIowaonThursdayforafour-cityswing:Waverly,MountVernon,
WashingtonandOttumwa.(AbbyPhillip)

3. Hillarys2008campaignmanager,PattiSolisDoyle,consideredquittingherpost
asanaidetotheFirstLadyin1998duringtheMonicaLewinskyscandalbutresolved
tostay.Itwasas----ythingtodotoher.Buthedidit.Shedidn'tdoit,"SolisDoyle
saidinaninterviewwithDavidAxelrodforhispodcast.Ithought,shedidn'tdo
anything.Heisthejerkhere.AndwhywouldIpunishherbyquitting?Butwhathe
didwasabsolutelyunacceptableformanyoftheyoungwomenwhowereworkingon
thatstaff.(CNNPodcast)

4. AsuperPACfoundedbyGOPmegadonorJoeRicketts,EndingSpendingAction
Fund,islaunchinga$600,000TVbuyinIowathatcallsSanderstooliberal.The
spot,firstreportedbytheNewYorkTimes,isclearlyaimedathelpingboostSanders
overClinton,highlightinghissupportfortuition-freecollege,single-payerhealthcare
andtaxincreasesonthesuper-rich.

TooLiberal

WAPOHIGHLIGHTS:
ChrisChristiehandsoverhispentoSenatePresidentStephenSweeneyaftersigninglegislationturningover
controlofAtlanticCity'scasinodistricttothestate,intheunfinishedlobbyofthestalledRevelCasinoinFeb.
2011.(TomGralish/StaffPhotographer)

--ChristiefailedtoarrestAtlanticCity'sdelineinthelatestepisodeofourDecider
series.-->AtlanticCitysMr.Fix-It,byDavidFahrenthold:Christiechoseto
interveneaggressivelyinAtlanticCitystroubles,believingthatabettergovernoranda
littlemoregovernmentcouldovercomeitssteepeconomicdecline.Sofirst,Christiehad
thestatetakeoverhalfofthecity.Butthatwasntenough.Sohetriedanewcasino.But
thatwasntenough.SohetriedInternetbetting.Butthatwasntenough...Despite
Christiesefforts,fourofthe12casinosshutdown.About7,000jobswerelost.His
interventionwentsobadlythatthestatelegislatureisconsideringwhethertorevokeAtlantic
Cityslastbestlifeline,itsstate-sanctionedmonopolyongambling.Themayorafellow
Republican,exasperatedwithChristieisconsideringmunicipalbankruptcy.Christies
decisiontointerveneherereflectshisstyleofgoverning:Confident.Pugnacious.
Braggadocious.Andsometimesunwillingtoacknowledgethelimitsofhispower.

--"HowDavidPetraeusavoidedfelonychargesandpossibleprisontime,"byAdam
Goldman:"TheJusticeDepartmenthasneverdiscussedhowitreacheditsdecisionto
acceptapleaonthelessercharge.ButsixcurrentandformerU.S.officials,aswellas
othersfamiliarwiththecase,providedthefirstdetailedlookattheinternaldebatesand
wranglingwithPetraeusslawyersthattookplacebeforetheretiredfour-stargeneral
enteredhisguiltyplea...Aspartoftheagreement,Petraeusadmittedthatheimproperly
removedandretainedhighlysensitiveinformationineightpersonalnotebooksthathegave
to[Paula]Broadwell.TheJusticeDepartmentsaidtheinformation,ifdisclosed,couldhave
caused'exceptionallygravedamage.'Officialssaidthenotebookscontainedcodewordsfor
secretintelligenceprograms,theidentitiesofcovertofficers,andinformationaboutwar
strategyanddeliberativediscussionswiththeNationalSecurityCouncil.Theplea
agreementleftsomeintheJusticeDepartmentangry,particularlyattheFBI,andsome
agentshavearguedprivatelythatitwillhamperfutureeffortstosecureprisontermsinleak
cases.Butothersinthegovernmentdefendedthedealastheonlyviableconclusiontoa
caseinwhichasuccessfulprosecutiononthemoreseriouschargeswasfarfromcertain.
'Nobodywasgoingtobehappywiththeoutcome,'aformerJusticeDepartment
officialsaid.'Therewasnothingaboutthiscasethatwastypical.'"

--Boominghealthcarecostsandgrowingdeficitscreatebudgetheadachefor
Republicans,byKelseySnell:CongressionalRepublicanshavepromisedtoinclude
deepspendingcutsintheirupcomingbudgetproposalsandnewdatashowingrising
federalhealthcarecostsandaloomingdeficitincreasewilllikelyaddtoconservatives
hungerforbigfundingreductions.Federalhealthcarecostsareexpectedtojumpto$936
billionin2016,outpacingthe$882billionprojectedspendingonSocialSecurity,according
toareportreleasedMondaybytheCongressionalBudgetOffice.Republicanswilllikely
usethelatestdatafromCBOtojustifyproposingdeepspendingcutstomandatory
spendingprograms,butGOPleaderscouldfacesometoughquestionswhenitcomesto
howmuchtoprovideforthe12annualspendingbillsbothPaulRyanandMitchMcConnell
wanttomoveearlythisyear.Republicanleadersagreedlatelastyeartoadealthat
allowsfor$30billioninnewdiscretionaryspendinginfiscal2017,anagreementthat
continuestorankleconservatives,particularlyintheHouse.

ConcepcionPicciotto,theprotesterwhomaintainedapeacevigiloutsidetheWhite
Houseformorethanthreedecades,ademonstrationwidelyconsideredtobethe
longest-runningactofpoliticalprotestinU.S.history,diedyesterdayatahousing
facilityoperatedbyNStreetVillage,anonprofitthatsupportshomelesswomenin
Washington.Shewasbelievedtobe80.Shehadrecentlysufferedafall.Picciottoa
SpanishimmigrantknowntomanyasConnieorConchitawastheprimaryguardian
oftheanti-nuclear-proliferationvigilstationedalongPennsylvaniaAvenue.
Picciottoin2010(APPhoto/CharlesDharapak)

SOCIALMEDIASPEEDREAD:

ZIGNALVISUAL:Sandersgotmorementionsonlineduringlastnights
Democraticforum:Here'satotalmentionschartduringtheeventonCNN,viaour
analyticspartnersatZignalLabs.NotehowSandersmentionsspikeduringhistimewith
ChrisCuomo,whileClinton'smentionsdidaswell.TheSandersspikewasbiggerthanthe
Clintonbounce:
Bothcandidateswereabletodrivetheirowncoverageduringthetownhall,astheselistsof
theirtoptweetsillustrate:
Picturesoftheday:

BenCohen,aco-founderofBen&Jerry's,unveiledanewicecreamflavorinhonorof
Sanders.It'scalled"Bernie'sYearning":
Here'stheflavordescription:

NASAreleasedthisphotoofastarclusterknownasTrumpler14,callingit"oneofthe
highestconcetrationsofmassive,luminousstarsintheentireMilkyWay":
HouseMajorityLeaderKevinMcCarthy(R-Calif.)stoppedatRandy'sDonutsnearLos
AngelesonhiswaybackhometoBakersfield,Calif.:
NASA'sEarthObservatorypostedthisphotooftheD.C.regionfromspace:
OnesnowlovergotcreativeusingthewindontheNationalMall:
MarkZuckerbergpostedthisphotoinhonorofhisfirstdaybackatworkafterpaternity
leave.Heasked,"WhatshouldIwear?":
Tweetsoftheday:

Watchout--HughHewittmightgetcreativewithhisoutfitatthenextdebate:
Sen.ClaireMcCaskill(D-Mo.)wascalledforjuryduty:
McCaskilllive-tweetedthewholeprocess:
Herlive-tweetscaptivatedMSNBC'sRachelMaddow:

TrumpisnotlettinggooftheCruz-was-born-in-Canadaissue:

TheWeeklyStandard'sBillKristolpredictedaCruzwininIowa:
Rep.SteveKing(R-Iowa)ismakinghisownfinalpushforCruz:
LiberalcommentatorDavidSirotasaidhe'sobservinga"freakout"ontheleftoverSanders
vs.Clinton:

CarlyFiorina'sdeputycampaignmanagerwaspleasedtosnagaflightfromDCtoIowa:
JimGilmore,whatareyoutalkingabout?
Instagramsoftheday:

BarbraStreisandmetwithSurgeonGeneralVivekMurthytotalkabouttheriskofheart
diseaseforwomen:
KasichgotahaircutatNotSoPlainJane'sinManchester,N.H.:
Rep.ErikPaulsen(R-Minn.)senttwo-dozeneggsdownalugeanddidn'tbreakasingleone
(clickforvideo):
GOODREADSFROMELSEWHERE:

--NewYorkTimes,"Beforeriseasoutsider,TedCruzplayedinsiderolein2000
recount,"byMattFlegenheimer:"Mr.Cruzrarelyinvokesthe2000raceandrecount.He
haslargelydisavowedthecomparativelymoderateBushwingoftheRepublicanPartyin
pursuitofconservativeideologicalpurity.Yethisinitialventureintopresidentialpoliticsisby
turnsaconfirmationofandacomplicationfortheprofessedCruzimage.Theraceinstalled
Mr.CruzasacreatureoftheRepublicanestablishmentbutalsohelpedstarthisdivorce
fromit.Hemadeplentyofenemiesamongpartyoperatives,accordingtointerviewswith
overadozenformercolleagues,thoughforreasonsthathadlittletodowithideology....By
theendoffivebleary-eyedweeksofhangingchadsandbutterflyballots,Mr.Cruzhad
aggressivelyworkedhislegalconnections,chafedwhenhefeltsidelinedbypartyveterans
andevenintheviewofsomewhodisparagehimhelpedensureMr.Bushsvictoryin
thecourts,toapoint.Infact,formercolleaguessay,theTedCruzof2000isentirely
recognizableinthecandidatenowaspiringtothepresidencyhimself,fusinghyper-
intelligence,cracklingambitionandalaundrylistofimpeccableinsidercredentialsthathe
oncetickedoffmorereadily.'HethoughtheshouldgettheNo.1policyjobintheWhite
House,andhewasextremelyambitious,'saidAriFleischer,Mr.Bushsformerspokesman.
'InTedscasein2000,itbackfired.'"

--HillarygivesBuzzFeedaninterview,Clintonwantstotalktoyouaboutloveand
kindness,byRubyCramer:HereishowHillaryClintonseesherself:radically
consistent,motivatedbyacorephilosophyvoicednowthroughtwowordsrarely
associatedwithher.Loveandkindness.Ifthissoundsunlikely,sheknowsit.For50years,
shesstruggledtoexplainthevaluesthatmotivateherinpubliclife,asacandidate,asa
person.Theonetimeshereallytriedto,intheearly1990s,shewasbrutallymocked.Inthe
viewofsomeofherclosestaides,Clintonneverfullyrecoveredfromthecriticalbacklash.
AsClintonseesit,shesreallytalkingaboutashorthandforherpersonalandpolitical
beliefs,foralltheimpulsesthatshapewhatshedoesandhowshedoesit.Evenifno
oneviewsherthatway.Evenifshesneverbeenquiteabletoexplainit.Evenifher
earnesteffortstoconnectwithpeoplearehamperednotjustbyherimage,butbytheactual
barriersofpubliclife.Aftersomanyyears,howdoyouconvinceanationfullofpeoplewho
thinktheyknoweverythingaboutyouthattheydont?

--BostonGlobe,"TrumpandSandersleadthepackwithbigpromises,"byMatt
ViserandAnnieLinskey:"TrumpandSandershavevirtuallynothingincommonexcept
foroutsiderstatusandpie-in-the-skypolicypriorities,whichtheysellwithhighlycharged
emotionalappealstargeteddirectlyatvoterseconomicandsocialanxieties.Trumpsayshe
wouldbuildawallalongtheSouthernborder,andmakeMexicopayforit....Hewould
temporarilybanMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates...HesayshewouldforceAppleto
buildallofitsproductsintheUnitedStates...InseemingdisregardofUSandglobaltrade
rules,hewantstoslapastiff,blankettariffonimportedChinesegoods....Sanders,theself-
describeddemocraticsocialist,hewsmorecloselytolegalrealitiesthanTrump,buthestill
campaignsonanaspirationalplatformofpoliticallongshots.Hevowstobreakupthebig
banks.Hewantstogiveeverystudenttheoptionofgoingtocollegewithoutpayingforit.
Heenvisionsahealthcaresysteminwhicheveryoneiscovered,includingundocumented
immigrants.Hewantstomandatethatemployerspayfornewparentstostayhomewith
theirbabiesforthreemonths.WhilehesaystheUnitedStatesshouldbemorelike
Denmark,heneglectstomentionthattheScandinaviancountryhasa55percentincome
taxrate.Theunrealisticnatureoftheirpromisesisastartlingfeatureofa2016campaign
fullofsurprises,ascandidateswhooncewouldhavebeendismissedasfringeplay
dominantroles."

--Politico,StateDept.watchdogtiedtoearlierClintonprobe,byJoshGerstein:A
lawyeroverseeinginvestigationsintoHillaryClintonsemailpracticeshasahistoryof
tanglingwiththeformerfirstladyspoliticaloperation:Hewasafederalprosecutorinvolved
inaprobethatled,adecadeago,totheunsuccessfulprosecutionofatopClinton
fundraisingaide.DavidSeidenowtheactingsenioradvisertotheStateDepartment
inspectorgeneralgatheredevidencethatsurfacedinthecaseagainstDavidRosen,the
nationalfinancedirectorofClintons2000Senatebid.SeidestietotheRosencaseis
fuelingconcernsamongClintonsalliesthatvariousinquiriesrelatingtoheruseofaprivate
emailserverarebeingskewedagainsther.However,theinspectorgeneralsofficedenies
anyconflictandsaysSeidesconnectiontotheearlierprosecutionwasaremoteone.

--Politico,"WhenCruzWantedtoBePartoftheEstablishment,byShane
GoldmacherandDanielLippman:"Fiveyearsago,asCruzplottedhispathtotheU.S.
Senate,theanti-establishmentcrusadersoughtaprivateaudiencewithandthebackingof
oneofthefacesofthemodernGOPestablishment:GeorgeW.Bush.Inanever-before-
reportedmeetinginBushsDallasoffice,Cruzbegantooutlinehis2012campaignplaybook
fortheformerpresidentCruzexplainedhowhewouldconsolidateconservatives
yearningforapoliticaloutsider,howhewouldoutflankthefront-runnerontheright,howhe
wouldproudlycarrythemantleoftheascendantteapartytovictoryoverentrenchedelites.
BushcutCruzoffbeforehecouldfinish.'Iguessyoudontwantmysupport,'Bush
interrupted.'Ted,whatthehelldoyouthinkIam?'"

HOTONTHELEFT HOTONTHERIGHT
ARepublicanstaterepresentative FoxNewssaidTrumpisafraidof
inTennesseesteppeddownas MegynKelly.FromPolitico:"Sooner
majoritywhipoverinappropriatetext orlaterDonaldTrump,evenifhes
messagestofemalecolleagues.The president,isgoingtohavetolearn
Tennesseansaysmanyofhis thathedoesntgettopickthe
colleaguesarenowcallingonhimto journalistswereverysurprised
resignaltogether. heswillingtoshowthatmuchfear
aboutbeingquestionedbyMegyn
Kelly,"anetworkspokespersonsaid.

DAYBOOK:

Sixdaysfromthecaucuses,it'sanIowaheavydayonthetrail.

HillaryspeaksinDecorahandCedarFalls,beforesheheadstoMarshalltown.

Trump,alsoinIowa,willbeinMarshalltownandIowaCitybeforeholdingarallyinIowa
City.

Sanders'bustourgoestoDesMoines.

CruzholdseventsinDesMoines,Albia,Centreville,Bloomfield,Ottumwa,Fairfield
andKeosauqua.

RubioisinPella,Oskaloosa,MarshalltownandWestDesMoines.

CarsoncampaignsinDesMoines.

KasichmakesstopsinNewBoston,RindgeandAmherst,N.H.

FiorinaheadstoColfax,IowaCityandMt.Pleasant.

SantorumcampaignsinWilliamsburg,Monticello,Dubuque,Anamosa,CedarRapidsand
Monroe,Iowa.

HuckabeegoestoAnkeny,Newton,PellaandIndianola.

AttheWhiteHouse:PresidentObamaandVicePresidentBidenwillmeetwithNancy
PelosiandHarryReidat11:15a.m.todiscussupcominglegislativepriorities.

QUOTEOFTHEDAY:
"ThewaythatHillaryClintonsbeentalkedaboutinthemediaissogendered
andrabidlysexistineverysingleportrayal,"saidLenaDunham,thestarof
"Girls"andaClintonsurrogate."Whetheritstheattacksonherpersonallifeor
theadjectivesthatareusedtodescribeherclothing,wehavetodoafull
reexamination.Ifwewereallowedtotalkaboutmalecandidateslikethat,Id
havea...fieldday.(Variety)

NEWSYOUCANUSEIFYOULIVEIND.C.:

--TheBostonCelticsclobberedtheWizards116-91.(JorgeCastillo)

--Theco-ownerofBethesda-basedTotalWine&More,DavidTrone,isseriously
thinkingaboutjoiningthecrowdedDemocraticprimaryforChrisVanHollens
Houseseat.(BillTurque)

--AmemberofTerryMcAuliffescabinetacceptedaninvitationfromthe
WashingtonRedskinstowatchagameinoneoftheirluxurysuites.Now
RepublicansarequestioningwhetherMcAuliffeandhisadministrationhaveviolatedoneof
hisexecutiveordersthatmembersofhiscabinetcannotacceptgiftsworthmorethan$100.
Theboxesarevaluedatbetween$18,000to$24,000.(LauraVozzella)

VIDEOSOFTHEDAY:

Thebullyisback.ChristiehectoredayounggirlwhoaskedhiminNewHampshirewhyhe
wasnotbackinNewJerseydealingwithrecoveryfromthestorm."It'salreadydone,"he
said."Idon'tknowwhatyouexpectmetodo.Youwantmetotogodowntherewithamop?"
ChristieChidesGirlfromNJWhoAsksWhyHe'sNotThere:"YouWantMetoGoDownTherewithaMop?"

Abettermomentforthegovernor,asheexplainswhyheisnotattackingTrump:

MarcoRubiolovesthrowingfootballs(inthelatestmade-to-go-viralvideofromIndependent
JournalReview):
HowToGetRevengeWithAFootballbyMarcoRubio

TianTianisstillenjoyingthesnowattheNationalZoo(clickforvideo):
Watch36hoursofSnowzillain30seconds,fromthetopofThePost'sbuilding:
Timelapse:Watch36hoursofSnowzilla'in30seconds

AtaSandersrally,awomanchokedupwhiledescribinghowshesurvivesonlessthan
$10,000ayear:

WomanatSandersrallyinIowachokesup

Hillary"walksitout."
HillaryWalksItOut.#news

WatchaclipfromBryceHarper'smovingspeechasheacceptedtheNLMVPAward,via
MLB.com,here.

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2016TheWashingtonPost|1301KStNW,WashingtonDC20071
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 01/26/201602:14:43PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue17

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January26,2016--Volume13,Issue17

INTHISISSUE
*RussianmilitarysairoperationsshedlightondifficultiesinSyria
*KremlinshiftsstrategytolayingfoundationsforfifthcolumninUkraine

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)

RussiasAirOperationsinSyriaExposeProblems

MoscowsmilitaryoperationsinUkraineandSyriaexposeafundamentaldistinctionin
approach:tryingtoextractitselffromtheformerwhileshowingnosignofapplyingthat
strategytothelatter.Officially,analliswellmessageispromulgatedbytheRussianpolitical-
militaryleadershipconcerningtheaircampaigninSyria.Perhapscarriedawaybytheeuphoria
ofconductingitsfirstout-of-areaoperationssinceAfghanistan,speculationhasarisenabout
theopeningofanewairbaseinSyria,closetotheTurkishborder,promptingdenialsfrom
officials(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January25).Themilitarymediaworks
tirelesslytoadvancetheideathattheaircampaignisworking,withoutreallyaddressing
underlyingissuessuchasstrategicaimsandobjectives,oracknowledgingthelimitedscopeof
thecloseairsupportfordisparategroundforcesgroupings(KrasnayaZvezda,January24).

Somebreachesintheratheroptimisticnarrativehaveappeared,andmaywellpresagethe
exposureofdeepersystemicproblems.ThefirststemsfromwhytheAerospaceForces
(VozdushnoKosmicheskikhSilVKS)anddefenseministry,despitePresidentVladimir
Putinsclaimthattheoperationistemporary,appeartoadoptalessthanhurriedapproach.
Infact,thisoriginatesinthetermsofthebilateralagreementthatlaidthebasisforRussian
operationsinSyria.TheRussiangovernmenttooktheunusualstepofreleasingthecontentof
theagreementreachedandsignedinDamascusonAugust26,2015.Accordingtothe
bilateralagreement,theVKScanusetheLatakiaairbaseindefinitelyandfreeofcharge.
Moscowcansendanyweapons,equipmentandmaterialsthatitdeemsnecessary,whileall
militarypersonnelenjoydiplomaticimmunity.TheagreementreachedinDamascusstipulates
thatRussiascontributiontoacampaignagainstterrorismandextremismisforanindefinite
period.Russiancommentatorsregardthetreatyasfairlystandard,anddownplaythe
indefiniteperiod,assimplyavoidingsettingdeadlinesfortheoperations(Gazeta,January
15).

WhiletheVKSmaybeinnohurrytoenditsoperationsinSyria,itisclearthatthe
interventionmarksashiftinRussianmilitarypolicyaswellasprovidinganewtestingground
foradvancedsystems.Acommentaryin NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniyenotedthat
theVKSoperationinSyriaisquiteunlikeRussiasuseofmilitaryforcesincetheendofthe
ColdWar.ItalsonotedthatsomeexpertshadlabelleditasthefirstRussianwarinAmerican
style,relyingonairpower,long-rangestrikeswithprecisionweapons,andwithminimalrisk
toitstroopsandforces.ThecommentaryfocusedonhowWesternanalystshaveadopteda
broadlypositiveinterpretationoftheRussianmilitaryoperation,whichaccordingtotheauthor
isrootedinthetendencytooverlycompareitwiththeFiveDayWarwithGeorgiainAugust
2008(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January15).

TurningtoconsiderWesterncriticismofRussiasinterventioninSyria,theauthorexplored
analysisbyDouglasBarry,aseniorresearcherattheLondon-basedInternationalInstitutefor
StrategicStudies.BarryacknowledgedtheuseoftheVKShigh-precisionweapons,butwent
ontoaddthatthescaleofaircraftprecisionweapons,reconnaissanceandtargeting
designationpossessedbytheVKSismuchnarrowerthaninWesternmilitaries.Barryalso
arguesthatRussiasuseofUAVshasnotreachedlevelsusedbytheUSanditsalliesin
Afghanistan,astheylackthenecessarylevelofintegrationofairborneandgroundhardware
systems(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,January15).Consequently,theauthoragrees
withWesterncomparisonstotheGeorgiaWarinthatoperationsinSyriademonstratesome
advances,butconcludesthattheVKSisstillfarbehindtheUnitedStatesAirForce(USAF).

Russiasuseoflong-rangeaviationtofireair-launchedcruisemissileswaspresentedinthe
militarypressasastepforwardandademonstrationofadvancedcapabilities.However,
Major-GeneralAnatoliyKonovalov,theforcesdeputycommander,admittedtherewere
someproblems.DuringaninterviewwithEkhoMoskvyonDecember19,Konovalovwas
askedtosummarizetheperformanceoflong-rangeaviationinSyria.Konovalovsaid:There
areproblemswiththeaircraft.Inparticular,intheuseofair-launchedcruisemissiles.Weare
nowbusyworkingonthem.Ibelieveweshallgetridoftheproblemsthatarosewiththeuse
ofair-launchedcruisemissilesinthenearfuture(EkhoMoskvy,December19).

UndoubtedlyRussiasmilitaryoperationsinSyriaprovideatestinggroundforitsweapons
systemsandhardware.Althoughnottestedassuch,thedeploymentofsophisticatedair
defensesystemsinthetheaterofoperationshasraisedconcerninWashingtonandonthepart
ofNATO.InresponsetothedowningoftheRussianSu-24MbytheTurkishAirForcein
November2015,MoscowreportedlyorderedthedeploymentofS-300Fort,theship-based
versionoftheS-300airdefensesystem,alongwiththemoreadvancedS-400Triumf.NATO
Secretary-GeneralJensStoltenbergreactedtothesenewdeployments,statingthatitfitsa
patternofMoscowdeployingmodernweaponsinconflictzonesclosetotheAlliance.
Stoltenbergsaid,WehaveforalongtimeseenthatRussiaisdeployingadvancedweaponsin
Syria,intheeasternpartoftheMediterraneanandalongtheborderswithNATOcountriesin
Europe.Furthermore,hereferredtoRussianmilitaryactivityintheBalticandBlackseas,as
wellasintheCrimea,Allofthis,partofthesystem,whichindicatesthatRussiaisexpanding
capacitytointroduceano-flyzone.AndthisisoneofthereasonsthatNATOadapts,though
leavingunclearhowtheAllianceisadapting(NezavisimoyeVoyennoyeObozreniye,
December4,2015).

Ofcourse,notalltheproblemstheRussianmilitaryfacesinSyriaaresolelyofamilitary
naturetherearenumerouscontradictionsintheoperation,andunexplainedtwists.Alexander
Khramchikhin,deputyheadoftheMoscow-basedInstituteofPoliticalandMilitaryAnalysis,
referstotheideaofdirectsupportforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadandhisopponentsas
atypeofschizophrenia,thoughheacknowledgesthatMoscowseekstosupportthesworn
enemiesofTurkeyaspaybackfortheSu-24M(RBK,January13).

InanarticleexaminingthenewRussianNationalSecurityStrategy,AlexanderKonovalov,
presidentoftheInstituteforStrategicAssessments,suggeststhattheSyriacampaigncannot
reallybeexplainedbythestrategy.HeconcludesthatPutinfacesachoiceofthreeoptions:
(1)Useanyopportunitytoendthecampaignandsaveface(2)Continuewiththesame
intensityandresultsor,(3)Expandsignificantlytheoperationtoincludegroundforces
(Kommersant,January18).

--RogerMcDermott

MoscowShiftingfromDirectAggressiontoBuildingaFifthColumninUkraine

GivenMoscowsdesiretogetoutfromunderthesanctionsregimeandthealmostequal
desireofsomeWesterngovernmentstodeclarevictoryandliftit,theKremlinappearslikely
todojustenoughtoclaimthatithasfulfilledtheMinskAccordsandtheWesttoacceptthat
assufficienttoendtheUkrainiancrisis.Inthatevent,itisanearcertaintytheWestwillagain
focusonMoscowandlookawayfromUkraineeventhoughCrimeawillremainunder
Russianoccupation.Andasaresult,Ukrainewillbeleftlargelyonitsownagainstwhathas
alwaysbeenpartoftheKremlinsstrategyagainstit,andwhatseemscertaintobethecenter
ofthatstrategyinthefuture:theuseofaRussian-organizedfifthcolumntosubvertUkraine
andpreventitfrommakingthekindofreformsthatwillallowittointegrateintoEurope.

SuchastrategywillbeespeciallyusefultoMoscowbecauseitwillseektopromotetheidea
thatUkrainesproblemsareentirelyofUkrainesownmaking,andthattheWestshouldview
Kyivasapoorpartner,becausewhateverVladimirPutinpromises,hewilltakeback
wheneveritsuitshim,countingontheWestsshortmemoryandonitsdesiretohavegood
relationswithRussia.Further,thestrategyislikelytoworkespeciallywellintheshort-term
becauseoftheenormousproblemsKyivwillfaceinre-integratingtheDonbasproblemsthat
MoscowpropagandistsandtheirfriendsintheWestcancountontrumpetingtotheworldand
exploitingtoheightenotherregionaltensionsinUkraine(Segodnya.ua,January25).

WhatisperhapsmostremarkableisnotthatMoscowismakingthisshiftitisfullyconsistent
withRussiandoctrineandtheRussianpracticeofhybridwarbutratherthatitsagentsare
sobrazenastodeclarethatthisisexactlywhattheyintendtodo.Lastweek,Aleksandr
Zakharchenko,theleaderoftheDonetskseparatists,madeastatementthatdeservesthe
closestattention.OneUkrainiancommentator,YuryUvarov,hasdonesoandhisanalysis
pointstowhybothUkrainiansandWesterngovernmentsshouldbeconcerned(Qha.com.ua,
January20).

Typically,Uvarovsays,Zakharchenkosremarksaresooverthetopthattheycansafelybe
ignoredbutthistimearound,hiswordsappeartohavebeencraftedforhiminMoscowand
pointtoamajorchange.ThisisevidentasZakharchenkosaysthatwhateverhappensinthe
Donbas,protestmovementscouldbesalvationforUkraine.Hegoesontostate:The
presentauthoritiesofUkraineobviouslyareleadingthecountryintotheabyss.Alossof
sovereignty,defactoforeignrule,economicdegradation,andagrowthinpovertyand
unemploymentareallleadingUkrainetowardeconomiccollapseandpoliticalcatastrophe.
Andinthefinalanalysis,todisintegration.

ZakharchenkoaddsthatheandhisregimewillwelcometheappearanceinUkraineofsuch
movementsbutwillnottaketheleadinpromotingthem.Inaddition,hestates,Wevery
muchhopethattheUkrainianpeoplewillwakeupfromtheirapathyandwillbeabletobegin
throughproteststheprocessofchangingUkraineandreturningitintothefamilyofcivilized
peoplesfromtheBanderitedeadenditfindsitselfinnow.Ifthatdoesnthappen,everything
willbeverybad.IcanconfidentlysaythatUkrainemustbechangedorotherwiseitwill
disappear!

Thekeywordshere,Uvarovpointsout,arewillgreet,willnotshowinitiativeintothe
familyofcivilizedpeoplesordisappear.Translatedintothelanguageofpracticalpolitics,this
meansthatRussiawilldoeverythingtosupporttheriseofafifthcolumninUkraine,because
initsview,theonlywayforUkrainetoreturntothefamilyofcivilizednationsisunderthe
controlofRussia.Otherwise,itwilldisappear.AndthatmeansthatMoscowspuppetsin
Ukrainemustfulfilltheirmaintasktobroadentheirelectoralbase,somethingforwhich
thereareobjectivepreconditionsinUkraineitself.

TheKremlinsactionsarelogical,Uvarovsays.Buttheyarebasedonafundamental
mistake,anunderratingofthelevelofUkrainianpatriotism.Heconcludesbysayingtoday,
theUkrainiannationasneverbeforeisunitedandstrong,andaunitedpeoplecannotbe
defeated.

AtleastthreereasonsexistwhyUvarovisquitepossiblytoooptimistic,especiallyiftheWest
turnsitsattentionawayfromUkrainejustasMoscowisincreasingitsinvolvement.Firstofall,
theideaofafifthcolumnworksevenifitdoesntexist.Ifpeoplebegintosuspectthattheir
opponentsarepartofit,thatinandofitselfpoisonspoliticsandmakescooperationalmost
impossible.Second,UvarovistoodismissiveofRussiasopportunitiestostiruptroubleinthis
wayinthepoliticalsphere.Ukraineisunitedinsomeways,butitisalsodividedinmany
othersandRussiacanandwillexploitthis.

Andthird,Uvaroviswrongtolimittheideaofafifthcolumntopoliticalactivism.TheRussian
versionthistimearoundislikelytoincludebothRussian-organizedfalseflagoperationsto
discreditUkrainiannationalistsbypromotingextremistideas,andRussian-organizedbut
nominallyUkrainianparamilitaryunitsthatcanbedeployedtochallengeKyivsauthority(For
adiscussionofthesepossibilitiesandothers,seePaulW.Blackstocksclassicwork, The
StrategyofSubversion,Chicago,1964).

ThoseinclinedtoacceptaslegitimateMoscowsfulfillmentoftheMinskAccordsshould
reflectontheserealities.

--PaulGoble

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From: Washingtonpost<email@e.washingtonpost.com>
Senttime: 01/26/201605:56:43AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: TheDaily202:HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry

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HillarybetsherprosecantriumphoverBerniespoetry
HillaryspeaksduringaDemocratictownhallinDesMoineslastnight.(PatrickT.Fallon/Bloomberg)

THEBIGIDEA:

HillaryClintonsaidlastnightthatshelovesthenewBernieSandersadsettoSimonand
Garfunkelsinging,TheyveallcometolookforAmerica.Thenshetriedtoofferareality
check.

Now,look,shesaidduringatownhallinDesMoines.Youcampaigninpoetry.You
governinprose.Andweneedalotmorepoetryinthiscampaign.ButIbelievethatImthe
betterpersontobetheDemocraticnominee,andthecommanderinchief.

Thecampaign-in-poetry,govern-in-prosetropewascoinedbythelateMarioCuomo,the
liberalNewYorkgovernor.WasitacoincidencethatCuomosson,Chris,wasmoderating
theeventforCNN?

ForClinton,itgavefreshlifetoamantrathatsheunsuccessfullytriedtouseasacudgel
againstthen-Sen.Obamain2008."Youcampaignwithpoetry,butyougovernwithprose,
sheoftensaid,downplayinghisrhetoricalabilities.

Inaninterviewpublishedearlieryesterday,PresidentObamadismissedcomparisonsof
Sanderstohimselforthiscampaignto2008."Idon'tthinkthat'strue,"ObamatoldPolitico.
HesaidthefactthatClintonknows"everypolicyinsideandoutcouldmakehermore
cautious,andhercampaignmoreprosethanpoetry."

Justlikelasttime,Clinton,lockedinaneck-and-neckraceinIowa,istryingtograbthe
mantleofchangelateinthegame.Lastnight,shehadamomentthatmighthelp.Afirst-time
caucus-goerwhosaidhesleaningtowardSanderstoldClintonthatmanyofhisfriendsfind
hertobedishonestandinauthentic.Ivebeenonthefrontlinesofchangeandprogress
sinceIwasyourage,shereplied.Ivetakenonthestatusquotimeandtimeagain.The
crowdlovedit.

Thetwonewsiestquotesfromthenight

Sandersonhisambitiousplans:"Yes,wewillraisetaxes.Yeswewill."

Clintononheremailserver:Imnotwillingtosayitwasanerrorinjudgmentbecause
nothingIdidwaswrong.

WHILEYOUWERESLEEPING:
--FederalofficesinD.C.willremainclosedtodayasthecityrecoversfromthe
snowstorm.Soiseverymajorschoolsystemintheregion.(Listhere.)

Metromostlyresumedrailserviceat5a.m.ButitcouldnotopentheSilverLine,and
atthelastminutethetransitagencysaidworkersareunabletorestoretrainserviceat
fourOrangeLinestationsthatwereexpectedtoreopen:Vienna,DunnLoring,West
FallsChurchandEastFallsChurch.Busservicewillbeexpandedoverthecourseof
today,althoughitisstillextremelylimited.(Thelatestontheclean-upeffortishere.)
Tragedy1:AsnowplowhitapedestrianwalkingdownthestreetinMontgomery
Countyabout8p.m.Themansinjuriesaredescribedassignificantbutnotlife
threatening.(MartinWeil)
Tragedy2:AfamilyinNewJerseywastryingtodigitswayoutwhenthechillbecame
toomuchtohandle.Themotherandherchildrenages1and3huddledinthe
carwiththeenginerunningtokeepwarm.Thekidsfathertriedtoclearthesnow
outside.Butthetailpipewascloggedwithsnow,pushingdeadlycarbonmonoxidegas
intothecar.Whenthefatherwenttocheckonthem,hecouldnotwakethemup.
(LindseyBever)
Today'sweather:Ourwarmingandmeltingtrendpicksupanothernotchas
temperaturessurgeaheadofanapproachingcoldfront,theCapitalWeatherGang
forecasts.Partlytomostlycloudyskieswithwarmermorningtemperaturesallowhighs
toreachthemid-to-upper40s.Aslightchanceofrainshowersshowupbylate
afternoonintoevening."

--Obamabannedsolitaryconfinementforjuvenilesinfederalprisons,sayingthe
practiceisoverusedandhasthepotentialfordevastatingpsychologicalconsequences.In
anop-edthatappearsintoday'sPost,thepresidentoutlinesaseriesofexecutiveactions
thatalsoprohibitfederalcorrectionsofficialsfrompunishingprisonerswhocommit"low-
levelinfractions"withsolitaryconfinement."Thenewrulesalsocallforexpandingtreatment
formentallyillprisoners,"JulietEilperinscoops."Whilethepresidentsreformsapply
broadlytotheroughly10,000federalinmatesservingtimeinsolitaryconfinement,thereare
onlyahandfulofjuvenileoffendersplacedinrestrictivehousingeachyear.Between
September2014andSeptember2015,federalauthoritieswerenotifiedofjust13juveniles
whowereputinsolitaryinitsprisons."Readtheop-edhere.

--Thecreatoroftheanti-PlannedParenthoodvideoswasindictedonfelony
charges."AHoustongrandjurythatwasinvestigatingaccusationsofcriminalmisconduct
againstPlannedParenthoodinsteadindictedtheleaderofananti-abortiongroupthat
recordedcovertvideosoftheorganizationsemployees,"DaniellePaquettereports."Harris
CountyDistrictAttorneyDevonAndersonsaidDavidDaleiden,thedirectoroftheCenterfor
MedicalProgress,facesafelonychargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecordanda
misdemeanorcountrelatedtobuyinghumantissue.SandraMerritt,oneofDaleidens
employees,wasalsoindictedonachargeoftamperingwithagovernmentalrecord.The
grandjuryclearedPlannedParenthoodGulfCoastofanywrongdoing.TexasGov.Greg
Abbottsaid,however,thattheinspectorgeneralofthestatesHealthandHumanServices
CommissionandtheTexasattorneygeneralsofficewouldcontinuetoinvestigatePlanned
Parenthoodsactions."

--OneweekbeforeIowa,abrandnewWashingtonPost/ABCNewspollshows
DonaldTrumpsolidifyinghisnationallead.RepublicansseeTrumpasthestrongest
candidateonmajorissuesandbyfarthemostelectableinthelargefieldofGOPhopefuls,
DanBalzandScottClementwrite.ThebusinessmogulleadsthenationalGOPfieldby16
points,at37percent,withTedCruzplacing2nd,at21percent.MarcoRubioisin3rdwith
11percent,followedbyBenCarson(7percent)andJebBush(5percent).Trumps
supportersaremorecommittedtohimthanthoseofhisrivals,with57percentsayingthey
willdefinitelyvoteforhim(comparedto34percentforalltheothercandidates).Inabig
shift,6of10RepublicansseeTrumpasmostlikelytowintheGOPnod,andTheDonald
leadsamongalldemographicgroups(includingwhiteevangelicals,thoughhisstrongest
supportcomesfromthosewithincomeunder$50,000).Trumpssuccessappearsbolstered
bythefindingthat9in10GOPerssaythecountryisseriouslyonthewrongtrack,and8in
10aredissatisfiedwiththefederalgovernment.Seethefullresultshere.

--TheresultsaremuchcloserinIowa,whereTrumpleadsCruzby2points(31to29
percent)amonglikelyRepublicancaucus-goers,accordingtonewnumbers
releasedthismorningbyQuinnipiacUniversity.Rubioplaces3rdwith13percentwith
noothercandidatebreaking7percent.TheresultsareprettymuchthesameastheQpolls
Jan.11survey.Only2percentareundecided,though39percentofthosewhopickeda
candidatemightchangetheirminds.

--TheDemocraticcontestintheHawkeyeStateisalsonarrowing.Clintonleads
Sandersby6points(48to42percent),downfrom14pointsinearlyDecember,according
toaFoxNewspollreleasedlastnight.Bernieisgainingamongmen(a2-pointDecember
edgegrewisa12-pointadvantagenow),whileHillaryislosinggroundamongthose45and
olderandthosewithcollegedegrees.Nationally,Clintonsnumbersarealsoslipping,with
49percentsupportingher(downfrom54percenttwoweeksago)comparedto37percent
forSanders(alsodown,from39percent).Undecidedsrosefrom2to10percent.TheFox
NewsPollsaysthattheClintonerosioncomespartiallyfromfallingsupportamongblack
voters,67percentofwhomnowbackher(comparedto78percenttwoweeksagoand84
percentinDecember).

WelcometoTheDaily202,withcontributionsfromMichaelSmith.Signuptoreceivethe
newsletter.Programmingnote:Wearelaunchinganewback-endsystemtoprepareand
publishthismorning.Itshouldnotimpactyouruserexperience.But,ifitdoes,pleaseflag
anyissuestopowerpost@washpost.com.Thankyouforreading.

GETSMARTFAST:

1. TheSupremeCourtruledthatteenagerssentencedtomandatorylifesentencesfor
murdermusthaveachancetoargueforrelease.Theruling,whichisretroactive,could
affectasmanyas1,500inmatesnationwide.(RobertBarnes)

2. SCOTUSalsoupheldaFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionrulethat
electricitygeneratorshate.The6-2decisionisawinforObamaandthe
environmentalists.(RobertBarnes)

3. NewHampshirehasdesignatedtwojudgestohearvoterandballotchallenges
duringtheFeb.9primary,whenanewvoterIDlawgoesintoeffect.(AP)

4. Atleast20werekilledwhenISISmilitantssetoffmultiplebombsatagovernment-run
securitycheckpointinHoms,Syria.(AP)

5. TheTalibanclaimedresponsibilityafteranAfghanpolicemanfatallyshot10ofhis
fellowofficersinKandaharbeforefleeing.(AP)

6. TheU.N.willconveneSyrianpeacetalksonFriday,butPresidentBasharal-
Assadsgovernmentandhisopponentswillnolongermeetface-to-face,whichwas
partoftheoriginalplan.(LizSly)

7. JohnKerry,meetingwithCambodianleaders,expressedconcernoverthe
governmentsrecordonhumanrightsandcorruption.Thevisitfocusedontradeand
investment.(CarolMorello)
8. Theownerofagunshopandhissonwerekilledduringashootoutwithtwo
customers,whowereinjuredinthegunfire,afteranargumentovera$25fee.(Sarah
Larimer)

9. Federalauthoritiesaresearchingforthreemenwhoescapedfromamaximum-
securityprisoninSouthernCalifornia.(PeterHolley)

10. AirbusisoneofseveralcompaniesalreadytryingtosellproductstoIrannowthat
economicsanctionshavebeenlifted.(NewYorkTimes)

11. TheUniversityofMissouriprofessorwhocalledfor"muscle"topushoutstudent
journaliststryingtocovercampusprotestswaschargedwithassault.(SusanSvrluga)

12. Indianaseconomylostasmuchas$60millionin2015whenseveralorganizations
decidednottohosteventsinIndianapolisbecauseofthestatescontroversialreligious
libertylaw.(AP)

13. ScientistsfoundevidenceofamasscareinKenya10,000yearsago,makingitthe
oldestactofhumanwarfare.(Reuters)

POWERPLAYERSINTHENEWS:

1. Sen.EdwardMarkey(D-Mass.)putaholdonPresidentObama'snomineetohead
theFDAbecausehewantstheagencytodomoreabouttheabuseofopioid
painkillers.(BradyDennis)
2. MartinShkreli,theex-biotechexecutivefacingfraudcharges,gotpermissionfroma
judgetotraveltoD.C.totestifyondrugpricingbeforetheHouseCommitteeon
OversightandGovernmentReformonFeb.4.(Bloomberg)
3. ScottWalkerlistedhisthree-bedroomWisconsinhousefor$338,000.Helivesinthe
governor'smanion,andtweetedthathe'slookingto"downsize"nowthatheandhis
wifeareemptynesters.(Politico)
4. ZephyrTeachout,theprotestcandidateagainstGov.AndrewCuomo(D-N.Y.)inthe
2014primary,isrunningtosucceedretiringRepublicanRep.Chris
Gibson.(PoughkeepsieJournal)
5. GeorgeH.W.Bushandhiswife,Barbara,calledNikkiHaleytocongratulateherfor
herStateoftheUnionresponse.(CharlestonPostandCourier)
6. BritishexplorerHenryWorsley,attemptingthefirstunassistedsolocrossingof
Antarctica,died71daysafterstartinghisjourney.Hewaswithin30milesofhis
target.(BrianMurphy)

MOREONTHEREPUBLICANRACE--

CRUZ,SLIPPING,ISTRYINGTOREGAINHISFOOTINGINIOWAAGAINSTTRUMP:

1. Hiscampaignspentyesterdaydescribinghimas"theunderdog."(RobertCostaand
PhilipRucker)
2. TheTexassenatorwarnedagroupofpastorsinaclosed-doormeetingthat,"IfDonald
winsIowa,herightnowhasasubstantialleadinNewHampshire.Ifhewentontowin
NewHampshireaswelltheresaverygoodchancehecouldbeunstoppableand
beournominee.AndthenextsevendaysinIowawilldeterminewhetherornotthat
happens."(KatieZezima)
3. TheCruzcampaignlaunchedanattackadagainstTrump's"NewYorkvalues."It
includesanoldclipofTrumpsayingthatheispro-choiceacrosstheboardandsaying
"howstupidarethepeopleofIowa."(Watchhere.)
4. ACruzSuperPAClaunchedthreeattackadsagainstTrumpaspartofa$2.5million
buy.Onealsohighlightshispastsupportforpartial-birthabortion,usingthesame
"MeetthePress"interviewasinthecampaign'sad.Anotherspotshowsaclipof
TrumppraisingCruzin2014.AthirdslamsTrumpforbackinguniversalhealthcare,or
"Trumpcare."
5. Aseparatepro-CruzPAClaunchedaradioadinIowatodefendhisethanolstance.
(DavidWeigel)
6. MarcoRubioattackedCruzonFoxNewsforhislawclientswhileinprivate
practice.WhenTedCruzhadtochooseasalawyer,hewaschoosingtorepresent
theChinese,"Rubiosaid."HerepresentedaChinesecompanythatstolesecretsand
aproductfromanAmericancompany.Soyoucan'tgoaroundsayingyou'retoughon
Chinabutthenhavealegalrecordinwhichyouwerepaidalotofmoneytodefendthe
ChinesewhohadtakenaproductawayfromanAmericanunjustly,unfairlyand
illegally.(Watchhere.)

THEDAILYTRUMP:

1. AtopaidetoSen.JeffSessions(R-Ala.),StephenMiller,willjoinTrumpscampaign
asaseniorpolicyadviser.(Costa)

2. TheformerSouthCarolinaRepublicanstaterepresentativewhocalledNikkiHaleya
raghead,JakeKnotts,endorsedTrump.(PhilipRucker)
3. TrumptauntedMichaelBloombergonCNN:"I'dbeathim.Iwouldlovehimtodoit
actually.Youknow,weusedtobefriends.Iguesswe'renotfriendsanymore."

4. DonaldRumsfeld,alongtimeadversaryofBush41buttheDefenseSecretaryto
Bush43,saidJebisnotconnectingbecausetherearesomepeoplethatare
uncomfortablewithadynasty.RumsfeldtoldtheTodayshowthatTrumphasa
touchedanerveinourcountry.

KASICHRISING,CHRISTIEFADINGINNEWHAMPSHIRE:

1. TheBostonGlobeendorsedKasich.TheBostonHeraldendorsedChristie.
2. Kasichisgoingall-inontheGraniteState.AfterThursday'sIowadebate,hewillnot
leaveNewHampshireuntiltheprimary.Anotherpollyesterday,fromFranklinPierce
University,puttheOhiogovernoraheadoftherestoftheestablishmentcontendersin
thestate,with12percent.(EdO'Keefe)
3. Christie'sfavorabilityhasdroppedfrom53%lastmonthto41%nowamongNew
HampshireRepublicans,perCNN:"Hehasbeencrucifiedoverthelastfewweeks,"
saidMikeDennehy,anunaffiliatedRepublicanoperativeinthestate."It'sashamefor
Christiebecausehereallydidhavemomentum."Dennehycamehomefromworkone
nighttotwocampaignmailersattackingChristie'srecord.Heshruggeditoff,walked
insideandflippedonhisPandora.Thefirstadtointerrupthisstreamingmusic:an
attackonChristie.Helatergrabbedhisremoteandflippedonthenews.Therewere
back-to-backadstargetingChristie.(CNN)

MOREONTHEDEMOCRATICRACE:

1. SouthCarolinaStateRep.JustinT.Bamberg,thelawyerforWalterScott's
family,switchedhissupportfromClintontoSanders.(VanessaWilliams)
2. BillwillflytoIowaonThursdayforafour-cityswing:Waverly,MountVernon,
WashingtonandOttumwa.(AbbyPhillip)

3. Hillarys2008campaignmanager,PattiSolisDoyle,consideredquittingherpost
asanaidetotheFirstLadyin1998duringtheMonicaLewinskyscandalbutresolved
tostay.Itwasas----ythingtodotoher.Buthedidit.Shedidn'tdoit,"SolisDoyle
saidinaninterviewwithDavidAxelrodforhispodcast.Ithought,shedidn'tdo
anything.Heisthejerkhere.AndwhywouldIpunishherbyquitting?Butwhathe
didwasabsolutelyunacceptableformanyoftheyoungwomenwhowereworkingon
thatstaff.(CNNPodcast)

4. AsuperPACfoundedbyGOPmegadonorJoeRicketts,EndingSpendingAction
Fund,islaunchinga$600,000TVbuyinIowathatcallsSanderstooliberal.The
spot,firstreportedbytheNewYorkTimes,isclearlyaimedathelpingboostSanders
overClinton,highlightinghissupportfortuition-freecollege,single-payerhealthcare
andtaxincreasesonthesuper-rich.

TooLiberal

WAPOHIGHLIGHTS:
ChrisChristiehandsoverhispentoSenatePresidentStephenSweeneyaftersigninglegislationturningover
controlofAtlanticCity'scasinodistricttothestate,intheunfinishedlobbyofthestalledRevelCasinoinFeb.
2011.(TomGralish/StaffPhotographer)

--ChristiefailedtoarrestAtlanticCity'sdelineinthelatestepisodeofourDecider
series.-->AtlanticCitysMr.Fix-It,byDavidFahrenthold:Christiechoseto
interveneaggressivelyinAtlanticCitystroubles,believingthatabettergovernoranda
littlemoregovernmentcouldovercomeitssteepeconomicdecline.Sofirst,Christiehad
thestatetakeoverhalfofthecity.Butthatwasntenough.Sohetriedanewcasino.But
thatwasntenough.SohetriedInternetbetting.Butthatwasntenough...Despite
Christiesefforts,fourofthe12casinosshutdown.About7,000jobswerelost.His
interventionwentsobadlythatthestatelegislatureisconsideringwhethertorevokeAtlantic
Cityslastbestlifeline,itsstate-sanctionedmonopolyongambling.Themayorafellow
Republican,exasperatedwithChristieisconsideringmunicipalbankruptcy.Christies
decisiontointerveneherereflectshisstyleofgoverning:Confident.Pugnacious.
Braggadocious.Andsometimesunwillingtoacknowledgethelimitsofhispower.

--"HowDavidPetraeusavoidedfelonychargesandpossibleprisontime,"byAdam
Goldman:"TheJusticeDepartmenthasneverdiscussedhowitreacheditsdecisionto
acceptapleaonthelessercharge.ButsixcurrentandformerU.S.officials,aswellas
othersfamiliarwiththecase,providedthefirstdetailedlookattheinternaldebatesand
wranglingwithPetraeusslawyersthattookplacebeforetheretiredfour-stargeneral
enteredhisguiltyplea...Aspartoftheagreement,Petraeusadmittedthatheimproperly
removedandretainedhighlysensitiveinformationineightpersonalnotebooksthathegave
to[Paula]Broadwell.TheJusticeDepartmentsaidtheinformation,ifdisclosed,couldhave
caused'exceptionallygravedamage.'Officialssaidthenotebookscontainedcodewordsfor
secretintelligenceprograms,theidentitiesofcovertofficers,andinformationaboutwar
strategyanddeliberativediscussionswiththeNationalSecurityCouncil.Theplea
agreementleftsomeintheJusticeDepartmentangry,particularlyattheFBI,andsome
agentshavearguedprivatelythatitwillhamperfutureeffortstosecureprisontermsinleak
cases.Butothersinthegovernmentdefendedthedealastheonlyviableconclusiontoa
caseinwhichasuccessfulprosecutiononthemoreseriouschargeswasfarfromcertain.
'Nobodywasgoingtobehappywiththeoutcome,'aformerJusticeDepartment
officialsaid.'Therewasnothingaboutthiscasethatwastypical.'"

--Boominghealthcarecostsandgrowingdeficitscreatebudgetheadachefor
Republicans,byKelseySnell:CongressionalRepublicanshavepromisedtoinclude
deepspendingcutsintheirupcomingbudgetproposalsandnewdatashowingrising
federalhealthcarecostsandaloomingdeficitincreasewilllikelyaddtoconservatives
hungerforbigfundingreductions.Federalhealthcarecostsareexpectedtojumpto$936
billionin2016,outpacingthe$882billionprojectedspendingonSocialSecurity,according
toareportreleasedMondaybytheCongressionalBudgetOffice.Republicanswilllikely
usethelatestdatafromCBOtojustifyproposingdeepspendingcutstomandatory
spendingprograms,butGOPleaderscouldfacesometoughquestionswhenitcomesto
howmuchtoprovideforthe12annualspendingbillsbothPaulRyanandMitchMcConnell
wanttomoveearlythisyear.Republicanleadersagreedlatelastyeartoadealthat
allowsfor$30billioninnewdiscretionaryspendinginfiscal2017,anagreementthat
continuestorankleconservatives,particularlyintheHouse.

ConcepcionPicciotto,theprotesterwhomaintainedapeacevigiloutsidetheWhite
Houseformorethanthreedecades,ademonstrationwidelyconsideredtobethe
longest-runningactofpoliticalprotestinU.S.history,diedyesterdayatahousing
facilityoperatedbyNStreetVillage,anonprofitthatsupportshomelesswomenin
Washington.Shewasbelievedtobe80.Shehadrecentlysufferedafall.Picciottoa
SpanishimmigrantknowntomanyasConnieorConchitawastheprimaryguardian
oftheanti-nuclear-proliferationvigilstationedalongPennsylvaniaAvenue.
Picciottoin2010(APPhoto/CharlesDharapak)

SOCIALMEDIASPEEDREAD:

ZIGNALVISUAL:Sandersgotmorementionsonlineduringlastnights
Democraticforum:Here'satotalmentionschartduringtheeventonCNN,viaour
analyticspartnersatZignalLabs.NotehowSandersmentionsspikeduringhistimewith
ChrisCuomo,whileClinton'smentionsdidaswell.TheSandersspikewasbiggerthanthe
Clintonbounce:
Bothcandidateswereabletodrivetheirowncoverageduringthetownhall,astheselistsof
theirtoptweetsillustrate:
Picturesoftheday:

BenCohen,aco-founderofBen&Jerry's,unveiledanewicecreamflavorinhonorof
Sanders.It'scalled"Bernie'sYearning":
Here'stheflavordescription:

NASAreleasedthisphotoofastarclusterknownasTrumpler14,callingit"oneofthe
highestconcetrationsofmassive,luminousstarsintheentireMilkyWay":
HouseMajorityLeaderKevinMcCarthy(R-Calif.)stoppedatRandy'sDonutsnearLos
AngelesonhiswaybackhometoBakersfield,Calif.:
NASA'sEarthObservatorypostedthisphotooftheD.C.regionfromspace:
OnesnowlovergotcreativeusingthewindontheNationalMall:
MarkZuckerbergpostedthisphotoinhonorofhisfirstdaybackatworkafterpaternity
leave.Heasked,"WhatshouldIwear?":
Tweetsoftheday:

Watchout--HughHewittmightgetcreativewithhisoutfitatthenextdebate:
Sen.ClaireMcCaskill(D-Mo.)wascalledforjuryduty:
McCaskilllive-tweetedthewholeprocess:
Herlive-tweetscaptivatedMSNBC'sRachelMaddow:

TrumpisnotlettinggooftheCruz-was-born-in-Canadaissue:

TheWeeklyStandard'sBillKristolpredictedaCruzwininIowa:
Rep.SteveKing(R-Iowa)ismakinghisownfinalpushforCruz:
LiberalcommentatorDavidSirotasaidhe'sobservinga"freakout"ontheleftoverSanders
vs.Clinton:

CarlyFiorina'sdeputycampaignmanagerwaspleasedtosnagaflightfromDCtoIowa:
JimGilmore,whatareyoutalkingabout?
Instagramsoftheday:

BarbraStreisandmetwithSurgeonGeneralVivekMurthytotalkabouttheriskofheart
diseaseforwomen:
KasichgotahaircutatNotSoPlainJane'sinManchester,N.H.:
Rep.ErikPaulsen(R-Minn.)senttwo-dozeneggsdownalugeanddidn'tbreakasingleone
(clickforvideo):
GOODREADSFROMELSEWHERE:

--NewYorkTimes,"Beforeriseasoutsider,TedCruzplayedinsiderolein2000
recount,"byMattFlegenheimer:"Mr.Cruzrarelyinvokesthe2000raceandrecount.He
haslargelydisavowedthecomparativelymoderateBushwingoftheRepublicanPartyin
pursuitofconservativeideologicalpurity.Yethisinitialventureintopresidentialpoliticsisby
turnsaconfirmationofandacomplicationfortheprofessedCruzimage.Theraceinstalled
Mr.CruzasacreatureoftheRepublicanestablishmentbutalsohelpedstarthisdivorce
fromit.Hemadeplentyofenemiesamongpartyoperatives,accordingtointerviewswith
overadozenformercolleagues,thoughforreasonsthathadlittletodowithideology....By
theendoffivebleary-eyedweeksofhangingchadsandbutterflyballots,Mr.Cruzhad
aggressivelyworkedhislegalconnections,chafedwhenhefeltsidelinedbypartyveterans
andevenintheviewofsomewhodisparagehimhelpedensureMr.Bushsvictoryin
thecourts,toapoint.Infact,formercolleaguessay,theTedCruzof2000isentirely
recognizableinthecandidatenowaspiringtothepresidencyhimself,fusinghyper-
intelligence,cracklingambitionandalaundrylistofimpeccableinsidercredentialsthathe
oncetickedoffmorereadily.'HethoughtheshouldgettheNo.1policyjobintheWhite
House,andhewasextremelyambitious,'saidAriFleischer,Mr.Bushsformerspokesman.
'InTedscasein2000,itbackfired.'"

--HillarygivesBuzzFeedaninterview,Clintonwantstotalktoyouaboutloveand
kindness,byRubyCramer:HereishowHillaryClintonseesherself:radically
consistent,motivatedbyacorephilosophyvoicednowthroughtwowordsrarely
associatedwithher.Loveandkindness.Ifthissoundsunlikely,sheknowsit.For50years,
shesstruggledtoexplainthevaluesthatmotivateherinpubliclife,asacandidate,asa
person.Theonetimeshereallytriedto,intheearly1990s,shewasbrutallymocked.Inthe
viewofsomeofherclosestaides,Clintonneverfullyrecoveredfromthecriticalbacklash.
AsClintonseesit,shesreallytalkingaboutashorthandforherpersonalandpolitical
beliefs,foralltheimpulsesthatshapewhatshedoesandhowshedoesit.Evenifno
oneviewsherthatway.Evenifshesneverbeenquiteabletoexplainit.Evenifher
earnesteffortstoconnectwithpeoplearehamperednotjustbyherimage,butbytheactual
barriersofpubliclife.Aftersomanyyears,howdoyouconvinceanationfullofpeoplewho
thinktheyknoweverythingaboutyouthattheydont?

--BostonGlobe,"TrumpandSandersleadthepackwithbigpromises,"byMatt
ViserandAnnieLinskey:"TrumpandSandershavevirtuallynothingincommonexcept
foroutsiderstatusandpie-in-the-skypolicypriorities,whichtheysellwithhighlycharged
emotionalappealstargeteddirectlyatvoterseconomicandsocialanxieties.Trumpsayshe
wouldbuildawallalongtheSouthernborder,andmakeMexicopayforit....Hewould
temporarilybanMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates...HesayshewouldforceAppleto
buildallofitsproductsintheUnitedStates...InseemingdisregardofUSandglobaltrade
rules,hewantstoslapastiff,blankettariffonimportedChinesegoods....Sanders,theself-
describeddemocraticsocialist,hewsmorecloselytolegalrealitiesthanTrump,buthestill
campaignsonanaspirationalplatformofpoliticallongshots.Hevowstobreakupthebig
banks.Hewantstogiveeverystudenttheoptionofgoingtocollegewithoutpayingforit.
Heenvisionsahealthcaresysteminwhicheveryoneiscovered,includingundocumented
immigrants.Hewantstomandatethatemployerspayfornewparentstostayhomewith
theirbabiesforthreemonths.WhilehesaystheUnitedStatesshouldbemorelike
Denmark,heneglectstomentionthattheScandinaviancountryhasa55percentincome
taxrate.Theunrealisticnatureoftheirpromisesisastartlingfeatureofa2016campaign
fullofsurprises,ascandidateswhooncewouldhavebeendismissedasfringeplay
dominantroles."

--Politico,StateDept.watchdogtiedtoearlierClintonprobe,byJoshGerstein:A
lawyeroverseeinginvestigationsintoHillaryClintonsemailpracticeshasahistoryof
tanglingwiththeformerfirstladyspoliticaloperation:Hewasafederalprosecutorinvolved
inaprobethatled,adecadeago,totheunsuccessfulprosecutionofatopClinton
fundraisingaide.DavidSeidenowtheactingsenioradvisertotheStateDepartment
inspectorgeneralgatheredevidencethatsurfacedinthecaseagainstDavidRosen,the
nationalfinancedirectorofClintons2000Senatebid.SeidestietotheRosencaseis
fuelingconcernsamongClintonsalliesthatvariousinquiriesrelatingtoheruseofaprivate
emailserverarebeingskewedagainsther.However,theinspectorgeneralsofficedenies
anyconflictandsaysSeidesconnectiontotheearlierprosecutionwasaremoteone.

--Politico,"WhenCruzWantedtoBePartoftheEstablishment,byShane
GoldmacherandDanielLippman:"Fiveyearsago,asCruzplottedhispathtotheU.S.
Senate,theanti-establishmentcrusadersoughtaprivateaudiencewithandthebackingof
oneofthefacesofthemodernGOPestablishment:GeorgeW.Bush.Inanever-before-
reportedmeetinginBushsDallasoffice,Cruzbegantooutlinehis2012campaignplaybook
fortheformerpresidentCruzexplainedhowhewouldconsolidateconservatives
yearningforapoliticaloutsider,howhewouldoutflankthefront-runnerontheright,howhe
wouldproudlycarrythemantleoftheascendantteapartytovictoryoverentrenchedelites.
BushcutCruzoffbeforehecouldfinish.'Iguessyoudontwantmysupport,'Bush
interrupted.'Ted,whatthehelldoyouthinkIam?'"

HOTONTHELEFT HOTONTHERIGHT
ARepublicanstaterepresentative FoxNewssaidTrumpisafraidof
inTennesseesteppeddownas MegynKelly.FromPolitico:"Sooner
majoritywhipoverinappropriatetext orlaterDonaldTrump,evenifhes
messagestofemalecolleagues.The president,isgoingtohavetolearn
Tennesseansaysmanyofhis thathedoesntgettopickthe
colleaguesarenowcallingonhimto journalistswereverysurprised
resignaltogether. heswillingtoshowthatmuchfear
aboutbeingquestionedbyMegyn
Kelly,"anetworkspokespersonsaid.

DAYBOOK:

Sixdaysfromthecaucuses,it'sanIowaheavydayonthetrail.

HillaryspeaksinDecorahandCedarFalls,beforesheheadstoMarshalltown.

Trump,alsoinIowa,willbeinMarshalltownandIowaCitybeforeholdingarallyinIowa
City.

Sanders'bustourgoestoDesMoines.

CruzholdseventsinDesMoines,Albia,Centreville,Bloomfield,Ottumwa,Fairfield
andKeosauqua.

RubioisinPella,Oskaloosa,MarshalltownandWestDesMoines.

CarsoncampaignsinDesMoines.

KasichmakesstopsinNewBoston,RindgeandAmherst,N.H.

FiorinaheadstoColfax,IowaCityandMt.Pleasant.

SantorumcampaignsinWilliamsburg,Monticello,Dubuque,Anamosa,CedarRapidsand
Monroe,Iowa.

HuckabeegoestoAnkeny,Newton,PellaandIndianola.

AttheWhiteHouse:PresidentObamaandVicePresidentBidenwillmeetwithNancy
PelosiandHarryReidat11:15a.m.todiscussupcominglegislativepriorities.

QUOTEOFTHEDAY:
"ThewaythatHillaryClintonsbeentalkedaboutinthemediaissogendered
andrabidlysexistineverysingleportrayal,"saidLenaDunham,thestarof
"Girls"andaClintonsurrogate."Whetheritstheattacksonherpersonallifeor
theadjectivesthatareusedtodescribeherclothing,wehavetodoafull
reexamination.Ifwewereallowedtotalkaboutmalecandidateslikethat,Id
havea...fieldday.(Variety)

NEWSYOUCANUSEIFYOULIVEIND.C.:

--TheBostonCelticsclobberedtheWizards116-91.(JorgeCastillo)

--Theco-ownerofBethesda-basedTotalWine&More,DavidTrone,isseriously
thinkingaboutjoiningthecrowdedDemocraticprimaryforChrisVanHollens
Houseseat.(BillTurque)

--AmemberofTerryMcAuliffescabinetacceptedaninvitationfromthe
WashingtonRedskinstowatchagameinoneoftheirluxurysuites.Now
RepublicansarequestioningwhetherMcAuliffeandhisadministrationhaveviolatedoneof
hisexecutiveordersthatmembersofhiscabinetcannotacceptgiftsworthmorethan$100.
Theboxesarevaluedatbetween$18,000to$24,000.(LauraVozzella)

VIDEOSOFTHEDAY:

Thebullyisback.ChristiehectoredayounggirlwhoaskedhiminNewHampshirewhyhe
wasnotbackinNewJerseydealingwithrecoveryfromthestorm."It'salreadydone,"he
said."Idon'tknowwhatyouexpectmetodo.Youwantmetotogodowntherewithamop?"
ChristieChidesGirlfromNJWhoAsksWhyHe'sNotThere:"YouWantMetoGoDownTherewithaMop?"

Abettermomentforthegovernor,asheexplainswhyheisnotattackingTrump:

MarcoRubiolovesthrowingfootballs(inthelatestmade-to-go-viralvideofromIndependent
JournalReview):
HowToGetRevengeWithAFootballbyMarcoRubio

TianTianisstillenjoyingthesnowattheNationalZoo(clickforvideo):
Watch36hoursofSnowzillain30seconds,fromthetopofThePost'sbuilding:
Timelapse:Watch36hoursofSnowzilla'in30seconds

AtaSandersrally,awomanchokedupwhiledescribinghowshesurvivesonlessthan
$10,000ayear:

WomanatSandersrallyinIowachokesup

Hillary"walksitout."
HillaryWalksItOut.#news

WatchaclipfromBryceHarper'smovingspeechasheacceptedtheNLMVPAward,via
MLB.com,here.

YouarereceivingthisemailbecauseyousignedupfortheTheDaily202newsletterorwereregisteredonwashingtonpost.com.For
additionalfreenewslettersortomanageyournewsletters,clickhere.

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TheWashingtonPost,clickhere.Contactusforhelp.

2016TheWashingtonPost|1301KStNW,WashingtonDC20071
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/19/201601:43:33PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere![MUST
Subject: SEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EU
...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,January19,20161:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere!
[MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUST
LISTEN]..........[WD]EU...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at4:29PM
Subject:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there![MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA
[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EUDEZINFORMREVIEW11[MUSTNOTE].....ANDABELATEDFPOvernightBrieffor1-
19-16[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at11:48AM
Subject:WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there!(seelengthyVIDEO)
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there!(seelengthyVIDEO)

URL:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/tv/topics/71484.html?print=1

Aspunishmenttheauthoritieshavebeendumpingallthesnowfromsurroundingdistrictsnexttothe
campfurtherisolatingtheprotesters(shownonvideo).

And:InRussiaSOCIALPROTESTShavebegunanew,http://echo.msk.ru/news/1696504-echo.html

InspiredbythesuccessfulprotestactionofPENSIONERSinKrasnodarandSochi,studentsin
NOVGORODarethreateningamajorstrikeovertheremovalordownsizingoftheirtransportation
benefits.

And:ForthedeclarationoftheNovgorodstudents,signedby1052supporters,see:Studencheskii
proezdnoivernut!VELIKIINOVGOROD,http://www.change.org/

And:StudentsinGreatNovgorodhavethreatenedtogooutontothestreets,
http://tvrain.ru/news/proezd-401936/

And:Russianoligarchs[Abramovich,Usmanov,Potaninandothers]lose$11bninjusttendaysduring
oilpricecrash,telegraph.co.uk,1/18

And:InU.S.money-launderingcase,shadesofRussianCORRUPTION,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27494612.html

And:OnconditionsintheLUHANSKbasements(controlledbytheseparatists)whereUkrainian
prisonersofwarhavebeentormentedanddied:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71465.html?print=1

And:The[Russian]CommissionontheDefenseofStateSecretshasdeclinedtomakepublicthe
archivesoftheKGB,http://grani.ru/Politics/FSB/m.247829.html

Thearchivesofthesecretpolicefor1917-1991willbepreservedinsecret.Thesedocumentsconcerning
theworkofthechekistyremainactual.

And:DutchMPssuspectRUSSIANTRACEinreferendumonAssociationwithUkraine,unian.info,
1/19

And:StateDumaSpeaker[NARYSHKIN]suggestsEUsanctionKievoverMinskviolations,
themsocowtimes.com,1/19

And:HillaryCLINTON:newRESETpossibleinU.S.-Russianrelationship,themoscowtimes.com,
1/19

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at10:00AM
Subject:Ukraine:USEKyivACKPNYTWoE[ANDERSASLUND"MUSTREAD':7KeyReformsforUAin2016]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

AtlanticCouncil

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/seven-key-reforms-for-ukraine-in-2016

JANUARY18,2016

SevenKeyReformsforUkrainein2016

BYANDERSSLUND

AfterOrthodoxChristmas,IspentafewdaysinKyiv.Itisquitestrikinghowthemoodhaschangedinapositivedirection.The
2016budgetandthemodifiedtaxcodewereadoptedonDecember24.Aftertwoweeksofwell-deservedrest,thereisasudden
realizationthatUkraineaccomplishedmanyimportanteconomicreformsin2015.Admittedly,manyUkrainiansrepeatthemantra
thatnoreformshavetakenplace,butthatisnottrue.Hundredsofsensiblereformlawshavebeenadoptedandtheirbreadthis
impressive.

Energyreformhasgreatlyreducedpricediscrepanciesandlimitedtheopportunitiesforcorruptarbitragebetweenstate-controlled
andfreeprices,whilesharplyreducingstatesubsidies.Thebudgethasbeenbroughtclosetobalance,andmajorinternational
financingtogetherwithdebtrestructuringwasaccomplished.Taxreformhasbeenadopted.Thebankingsystemisbeingcleaned
upasmorethanone-thirdofthebankshavebeenclosed.Afterasubstantialdevaluation,theexchangeratehasstabilizedand
internationalcurrencyreserveshaveincreasedconsiderably.Electronicprocurementhasbeenwidelyintroduced.Some
deregulationhasoccurred.

YetUkrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.The
countryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.
Nevertheless,thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbe
in2016.

1.Themainpriorityisreformoftheprosecutionandcourts.Ukraineadoptedalawonprosecution,butProsecutorGeneralViktor
Shokinmanagedtotakecontrolofthereformprocess,minimizingthechange.Shokinhastogoandthereformoftheprosecution
needstostartanewundernewleadership.Similarly,thecountry's10,000judgesneedtobelustratedandnewjudgesappointedin
areformedcourtsystem.
2.Muchwasaccomplishedinenergyreformin2015,andin2016itshouldbecompleted.Gasandelectricitypricesshouldbe
unifiedatamarketlevelandsetunderthecontrolofanindependentregulatorfromApril1andagasandelectricitymarketshould
finallybeallowedtodevelop.Taxationofindependentoilandgasproducersmustbemadereasonable,andtheirregulationshould
besimplified.Socialsubsidiesaregiventothepoorestthirdofthepopulation,butnofurthersubsidiesshouldbegiventoenergy
companies.

3.Ukraine's1,833state-ownedcompaniesareadenofcorruption.Thevastmajority,1,600,areoflittlevaluejustextracting
subsidiesfromthestate.Theyshouldbesoldoffataregionallevelandthepaymentsgiventotheregionalgovernmentstomotivate
themtoafasterselloff.Thetop100stateenterprises,mainlyinenergyandtransportation,haverealvalueandtheirprivatization
shouldbeopentoforeignbidderswheneverpossible.Thesesalesmustbetransparentandcompetitiveaimingbothathighprices
andsoundrestructuring.About120armamentcompaniesbelongtoUkroboronpromandneedtobeconsideredaseparate
nationalsecuritymatter.Forsuchreasons,Russianentitiesneedtobeblockedfromparticipationinprivatizationandforeignentities
shouldhavetransparentultimatebeneficiaries.

4.Ukrainerequiresprofoundcivilservicereform,whichhasbeenlegislatedandwillcomeintoforceinthespring.Itisvitalthatitis
properlyimplemented.Salariesofcivilservantsmustberaisedsothattheycanliveontheirsalaries.Acleardivisionneedstobe
madebetweenpoliticalandcivilserviceappointments.Entryintothecivilserviceshouldtakeplacethroughcompetitiveexams.
Promotionsshouldbebasedonmerit,notseniority.Standardrulesagainstconflictsofinterestshouldbeintroduced.TheEuropean
UnionhasofferedsubstantialfinancialandtechnicalsupportandthisissomethingthatEUcountriesdowell.

Thevastadministrationofthecabinetofministersof700peoplethattraditionallyhasduplicatedandhamperedtheworkofthe
ministriesshouldbedismantledandreplacedwithalimitedapparatusforcoordination.Thesystemofrequiringtwentytothirty
signaturesoneachmajordecisionmustend,andministriesshouldobtainrealresponsibility.

5.Thebudgetdeficithasbeenbroughtundercontrolandthemostcorruptexpenditureshavebeeneliminated,butUkraineneeds
toreformthebudgetprocesstomakeitfullytransparent.ThisrequirestechnicalassistancefromaWesterncountrywithawell-
functioningbudgetsystemtorenderpublicexpendituresefficient.

6.Ukrainecarriedoutsomederegulationin2015,butfartoolittle.Manyinspectionagenciespersistandshouldbeclosed.
UkrainecouldrisesharplyontheWorldBank'sEaseofDoingBusinessIndex,ifitcarriedoutpossiblederegulation.

7.FormerMinisterofEducationDmytroTabachnikcausedchaosintheschoolsystem2010-13.Ukraineneedstoestablish
elementaryorderintheschoolorganizationandcurriculum.Polandoffersagoodexamplethatcouldbecopied.Thiswouldnot
costmuch,butitisamatterofgettingtheproperadministrationintoplace.

Manyotherissuesarealsoimportant,notablyimprovementofthehealthcaresystem,butsuchreformrequiresmoretime.Thetop
sixprioritiesaboveareallfocusedonreducingcorruption.Schoolreformiscomparativelyeasyandcanbedonewithinayear.

Ukrainehasreformedmuchin2015,butthegovernmentneedstokeepupthemomentumtoattainsoundeconomicgrowth.

AndersslundisaseniorfellowattheAtlanticCouncilandauthorof"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt."
----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at1:55PM
Subject:Fwd:thanks![ED:AnVerySubstantiveSteveBInterviewonVOA]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,herpirch@aol.com

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:TetianaKharchenko<tkharchenko@voanews.com>
To:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Sent:Tue,Jan19,20161:55pm
Subject:thanks!

HiStephen,

ThankyouagainforcomingtoourTVshow.HereisthelinkforthatinterviewwhichBohdanhasconductedwithyou.

http://ukrainian.voanews.com/content/stiven-blank-on-minsk/3148962.html

andfortheshow:

http://ukrainian.voanews.com/media/video/tv-programs-chastime/3147829.html?z=1684&zp=1

Best,

Tania.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at12:14PM
Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven[EastStratComTaskForce]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

From:EastStratComTaskForce[mailto:stratcom-east=eeas.europa.eu@mail150.suw14.mcdlv.net]OnBehalfOfEastStratComTask

Force

Sent:January19,201611:07AM

To:=?utf-8?Q??=

Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven

New#DisinfoReviewfromtheEEASEastStratComTaskForce Viewthisemailinyour
browser

DisinformationReview:IssueEleven
Dearcolleagues,

Thankyouverymuchforallyourreports.Wearealwayshappytoseenew
languageshere-thistimeItalian.Incaseyouknowaboutsomepeopleor
organisationswhocouldhelpuscovercountriesandlanguagesstillnotpresentin
ourReview,wewillbehappyifyouletusknow.

Asthisweekstrendwechosethedisinformation
targetedatGermany

Pro-KremlinmediausethenewsaboutsexualattacksduringNewYearsEveto
supportoneoftheirmostrepeatednarratives-showingthedecayoftheWestand
theproblemsfacedbyaEuropeanleader.

Alreadylastweek,wesawdisinformationaboutGermanpoliceandAngela
Merkelallegedlynotreactingtotheincident(http://eepurl.com/bMAv5P).This
week,youwillseestoriesabouttheseattacksbeingstagedbysecretservices,eg
theCIAortheirMuslimalliesandpayingtheactorswithheroinboughtfor
taxpayersmoney.OneofRussiasmainnewsprogrammes,"Vesticomparedthe
incidenttotheinfamousNightofLongKnives,orKristallnacht
(http://bit.ly/1QfuCZE).Aeronet.ctreportedthatifyouinsultrefugeesonGerman
FacebookorTwitter,youmightgotojail,whichisalongpreparedplantoban
freedomofspeechandtheNewYearsEveincidentsareonlyanexcuseforthat
(http://bit.ly/1OYZQDk).

Duringtheweekend,thepro-Kremlinmediacamewithastoryclaimingthata
RussiangirlhadbeenrapedinBerlinbymigrants.Inthetable,youwillseemany
linkstothisstoryinallthemostpopularRussianmedia.AlthoughBerlinpolice
deniedthisinformation(http://bit.ly/1Q8DMW4),manyofthestoriesremained
unchanged.

FurtherdisinformationaboutGermanauthoritieswasreportedbyCzechpro-
Kremlinoutlets.Inthetable,youwillseeacoupleofthemclaimingthatthe
GermangovernmentbuysCzechprostitutestosatisfytherefugees.These
prostitutesthenspreadtherefugeessexualdiseasesamongtheCzech
population,whichmight,itisclaimed,bearevengefortheCzechgovernment's
unwillingnesstoacceptrefugeesbytheGermangovernmentandAngelaMerkel.

Lastweek,weshowedhowpro-Kremlinmediainventstorieswrittenbywell-
knownWesternmediatomaketheirreportingmorecredible.Allofthestories
werefaked.Thisweek,wesawasimilarpattern-manystoriesinpro-Kremlin
outletsclaimedthatWesternmediapresageacatastropheforthewholeWest
afteranotheringeniousmovebyVladimirPutin,intendedtocounterthe
sanctionsagainsthiscountry.Infact,theseWesternmediaamountedtoone
articleonabloggingsite.Thestop-fakingsiteNoodleremoverreportsonthis
particularcasemorethoroughly(http://bit.ly/1niqi0M).

Here,weseeadifferentpattern-insteadofmakingproofsup,pro-Kremlinsites
pickanexistingelement,andpervertitintosomethingitisnot.Theverysame
happenedtoaphotographthatallegedlydepictedUkrainiannazis.Infact,there
wereRussianultranationalistsportrayedinthepicture(http://bit.ly/1StZoiM).

ThefalsenarrativeaboutnazisgoverningUkraineisrepeatedoneveryoccasion.
Thus,eventheUkrainianschoolreformsaimisinfactjustaplanhowtoturn
Ukrainianchildrentonazis.Thispieceofinvestigationwasreported
bynovorus.info:http://bit.ly/1V54xvH,andthanspreadbyCzechpro-Kremlin
outlets.

Thisweek,pro-KremlinoutletsalsoclaimthattheAmericansecretservice
managednotonlytostagetheCologneattacks(seeabove),butalsotohelpthe
BulgarianPrimeMinistertogetdrugsinLibyaandweaponstoISIS
(http://bit.ly/1TAAonG).In2009,theCIAalsokilledMichaelJackson
(http://bit.ly/1RONPDe).

Manythankstoallourcontributorsagain,andwearealwayslookingfornewones.

DOWNLOADDISINFORMATIONREVIEWISSUEELEVEN

Forcontributions,pleasee-mailjakub.kalensky@eeas.europa.eu

Whenyouadvertisethisproduct,pleaseusethislinkforautomatedsubscriptions.

Thankyouverymuchonceagain,andwearelookingforwardtoyournewreports,

EastStratCom
FollowusonTwitter@EUvsDisinfo

TheDisinformationReviewisacompilationofreportsreceivedfrommembersofthe
mythbustingnetwork.Themythbustingnetworkcomprisesofover450experts,
journalists,officials,NGOsandThinkTanksinover30countries.Pleasenotethat
opinionsandjudgementsexpressedheredonotrepresentofficialEUpositions.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at8:47AM
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:January19,2016
To:Wolodymyr<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIOvernightBrief
January19,2016

TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,ObamaAdministration,Events

Announcements TheMust-Reads
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI NYT:US-Iranprisonerswappitscompassionagainstcosts
OvernightBrief.
BretStephens:NormalizingIran
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking
SyriahurdleloomsafterUS-Irandeals
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
CarterseeksmorehelpagainstISISinParistrip
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofor Formerwarplanners:ObamatoocautiousinbombingISIS
theYemenconflict.
DavidIgnatius:DefeatingISISwilltakedecades

WSJeditorial:AterrorstateinLibya

Gilinsky,Sokolski:TheotherdangersfromtheN.Korean
nuketest

WSJ+WaPoeditorialsandCohenonChineserepression

AsearchforanswersinKara-Murzasmysteriousillness

MiddleEast/NorthAfrica

Iran

Withinternationalsanctionslifted,theIraniangovernmentcalledonitsoilindustryMondaytoopenthetapsonproduction,amovethatcould
addtoaglobalglutofcrudethathassentpricesintoatailspin.NewYorkTimes

LiterallyhoursaftertheinkhaddriedontheaccordliftinginternationaleconomicsanctionsonIran,big-namecompaniesacrossEuropeandAsia
weresigningdeals,majorworldleaderswerebookingtrademissionstoTehran,idledoilfieldswerebeingorderedbackonline,andIran'sfinancial
authoritieshadprocessedapplicationsforsome1,000lettersofcreditfrombusinesseshopingtocutdealsinthenearfuture.WashingtonTimes

TheglowofgoodwillthatfollowedasurpriseprisonerswapandtheliftingofinternationalsanctionsonIran'snuclearprogramovertheweekend
isalreadybeingtemperedbythesomberrealizationthattheIslamicRepublicisnotlikelytochangecoursesignificantlyonotherpressing
conflictswiththeWest.LosAngelesTimes

ThedramaticreleaseoffiveAmericansimprisonedinIranovertheweekendhighlightedanunprecedentedlevelofdiplomaticcooperation
betweentwocountriesthathavelongbeenatodds,raisingthetantalizingpossibilityofaneweraofU.S.-Irandtente.ForeignPolicy

TwoIranianpoetswhofacelashingsandprisonsentenceshavefledIran,oneofthewriterssaidMonday,arareescapeforlocalartistsand
activistsensnaredinanongoingcrackdownonexpressioninthecountry.AssociatedPress

BretStephenswrites:IranwillbecomeanormalcountryonlywhenitceasestobeanIslamicRepublic.Inthemeantime,theonlyquestionis
howfarwearepreparedtoabaseourselvesinourquesttonormalizeit.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SimonChinandValerieLincywrite:Inthefirstroundofsanctionsrelief,theEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,andUnitedNationsliftedthebulkof
itsnuclear-relatedsanctionsagainstIran,includingmostoftherestrictionsthathadbeenimposedagainstIransfinancial,transport,andenergy
sectors.(U.S.partieswillstillbeprohibitedfromdoingbusinesswithIranianentitiesbecauseoftheembargo.)IranWatch

FredFleitzwrites:HowdidIranreachthenucleardealsImplementationDay?BecausetheObamaadministrationriggedthegamebysettingthe
barsolowthatIraniancompliancewasassuredThatswhatledtoadisastrousagreementthatwillmaydoenormousdamagetointernational
securityfordecadestocome.FoxNews

Syria

TheprisonerexchangebetweentheU.S.andIran,coincidingwiththecompletionofthenucleardeal,markedmilestonesinPresidentBarack
Obamaspolicyofengagement,butonesthatwillbedifficulttorepeatasheturnstothenextchallenge:resolvingtheconflictinSyria.Wall
StreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Barelyamonthaftertheworldsmostpowerfulcountriesagreedtoanambitiousroadmaptoendthefive-year-oldwarinSyria,thereisstillno
agreementonwho,ifanyone,willshowupatthepeacetalksthataresupposedtobegininGenevanextMonday.NewYorkTimes

IntheMiddleEast,whereRussiahasengagedinitsownoperationsagainstIslamicStateinSyria,RussiaandtheU.S.,whichisleadingacoalition
againsttheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria,orISIS,alsoknownasISIL,aremakingeveryeffortnottocrosspathsintheskies,Gorencsaid.DOD
Buzz

TheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightsgroupsaidscoresofSyriangovernmentforceshavebeenkilledinthreedaysoffightingwithIslamic
Stateintheeastofthecountry,wherethejihadistgrouphasattackedgovernment-heldareas.-Reuters

Syrianpeacetalksduenextweekarelookingincreasinglymootasastringofrecentbattlefieldvictoriesbygovernmenttroopshavebolstered
PresidentBasharAssad'shandandplungedtherebelsintodisarray.AssociatedPress

AthirdroundofaidwasdeliveredtobesiegedSyriantownsonMonday,althougharmedgroupspostponedonehumanitarianteam'saccess
sayingtheyneededmoretimetomakesecurityarrangements,theUnitedNationssaidinajointstatement.-Reuters

DaveedGartenstein-RossandNathanielBarrwrite:AlmosteveryaspectoftheObamaadministrationspolicytowardSyriahasbeenscrutinized,
lambastedorpraisedinrecentmonths,butoneofthemostsignificantfacets,theCIAscovertaidprogramtoSyrianrebels,haslargelyslipped
belowtheradar.Itistimethatwestartpayingattention,sincethisinitiativeisbenefitingtheveryjihadistgroupstheU.S.hasbeenfightingforthe
past15years.TheDailyBeast

Iraq

ThreeAmericanswhohavebeenmissinginIraqsinceFridaywereprobablykidnappedfromaBaghdadapartment,accordingtosecurityofficials
andlocalnewsreports.TheapartmentmayhavebeenthehomeofanIraqicolleaguewhoisalsobelievedtohavebeenabducted,theofficialsand
reportssaid.NewYorkTimes

AwaveofattacksagainstciviliansbytheIslamicStateandrivalShiitemilitiasinavolatileIraqiprovincehasraisedfearsaboutthepotentialfor
deadlysectarianviolence,eveninareaswheretheextremistmilitantswereofficiallydeclarederadicated.WashingtonPost

Atleast18,802civilianswerekilledandanother36,245werewoundedinIraqbetweenthestartof2014andOct.31oflastyearasIraqiforces
battledtheIslamicStategroup,accordingtoaU.N.reportreleasedTuesday.AssociatedPress

BaghdadandWashingtonhavetoutedRamadiasthefirstmajorsuccessforIraq'sU.S.-backedarmysinceitcollapsedinthefaceofIslamicState's
lightningadvanceacrossthecountry'snorthandwestinmid-2014.Butthescorched-earthbattlefieldtacticsusedbybothsidesmeantheprizeis
ashatteredruin.-Reuters

[C]learingthecityfrommilitantsandexplosivescouldtakeweeks.Andthediscoveryofmoreciviliansthanexpectedtrappedamongtheruins,
afterwhatthesurvivorssaywasadeliberateeffortbyfighterstousethemasshields,suggestsfuturebattlesagainstIslamicStatecouldbemore
complicated.-Reuters

KimberlyDozierreports:ThreeAmericancontractorswentmissinginBaghdadlateThursday,afterleavingtheheavilyfortifiedIraqimilitarybase
withouttheirsecuritydetail,armedonlywithpistols,accordingtoacontractorwithfirsthandknowledgeoftheincident.TheDailyBeast

Turkey

ATurkishsecurityforcecampaignagainstKurdishmilitantsinthesoutheasthasbeenlargelycompleted,PrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluwas
reportedassayingonTuesday,asheoutlinedplanstomaintaintightercontrolinpartsoftheregion.-Reuters

LawyersforTurkishPresidentTayyipErdoganfiledalawsuitagainstthemainoppositionleaderonMondayforimplyingthatErdoganwasa
dictator,presidentialsourcesandtheoppositionpartysaid.-Reuters

ReturntoTop

Asia
CentralAsia

TheUzbekgovernment,lobbiedbyrightsgroupsandpressuredquietlybytheUnitedStatestofreeahigh-profilepoliticalprisoner,hasfinally
revealedasecret:Hediedfiveyearsago.NewYorkTimes

LackofagreementonwhowouldcontrolaseparateIndianSpecialForcesCommand(SFC)hasstymiedcreationoftheunitdespitethemilitary's
urgentdesireforone.MilitaryTimes

China

Chinasgrowthslowedfurtherlastyear,addingtothetroublingeconomicpicturethatisunsettlinginvestorsaroundtheworld.NewYorkTimes

WhenChinasgovernmentreportsTuesdayontheeconomysperformancelastyear,onecentralquestionwillhavealreadybeenanswered:
Growthslowedtoitsmostanemicpaceinaquartercentury.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Traditionally,collegesconducton-campusinterviewsorenlistalumnitohelp.ButwiththesurgeinapplicationsfromChina,collegesareunableto
keepupwiththevolumeofinterviewrequests.Tosiftthroughthefloodofapplicants,moreAmericaninstitutionshavesoughtthird-party
interviewswithprospectivestudents.NewYorkTimes

WheneverChinaseconomyshowssignsoffaltering,Beijingtypicallymovestostimulategrowthbyboostingspendingoninfrastructureand
thatnormallygivesthingsakickstart.Thistimearound,however,policymakershadresortedtothesamestrategyonlytofindthemselvesfacing
unusualheadwinds,asevidencedbyTuesdaysnewsthatChinaposteditsslowestgrowthinaquartercenturyin2015.WSJsChinaRealTime

ChinasgovernmenthaslaunchedanonlinedatabaseofTibetanlivingBuddhasaspartofwhatcriticsviewasabroaderstruggletocontrolthe
legacyoftheexiledDalaiLama.FinancialTimes

Chineseauthoritieswillprosecutetwoformerseniorofficials,includingaone-timevicemayorofShanghai,forcorruption,afterprobesfoundthey
abusedtheirpowerandtookbribes,therulingCommunistParty'santi-graftwatchdogsaidonTuesday.-Reuters

HongKong

GuiMinhai,theowneroftheHongKongpublisherMightyCurrentwhohasbeenmissingsinceOctober,appearedonChinesestatetelevisionlast
night(Jan.17)andmadeatearfulconfessionhehadkilleda20-year-oldcollegestudentwhiledrunkdrivinginNingbo,acityinsoutheastern
Zhejiangprovince,inDecemberof2003.Guisfriendsandfamilyhavetheirdoubts,andsayhisconfessionlooksscriptedandtheystillbelievehe
wasabducted.-Quartz

HongKongpolicehaveconfirmedthatanotherofagroupoffivemissingbooksellerswhosoldworkscriticalofBeijingisinmainlandChina,justa
dayafterhiscolleaguewasparadedonChinesestateTVconfessingtoa12-year-olddrink-drivingoffenceFinancialTimes

ASwedishbooksellerwhosemysteriousdisappearancesparkedfearshemayhavebeenabductedbyChineseagentssaidhehadvoluntarily
turnedhimselfintotheauthoritiesoverafataldrink-drivingoffensemorethanadecadeago.-Reuters

OneofHongKong'sstaunchestpro-Beijinglawmakerssaidabookseller'stearfulconfessiononstatetelevisiontoahit-and-runaccidentmore
thanadecadeagoinChinaisunlikelytoappeasepublicconcernsthathemayhavebeenabducted.-Reuters

Editorial:Thechargeagainstthelawyers,subvertingstatepower,isabsurd.Thelawyersweresimplyadvisingclientshowtodefendthemselves
underChinaslawstheirintentionswerepragmaticandrelativelymodest.Butitisnowcleartheytouchedaverysensitivenerve,andChinas
rulersreactedharshly.Thegrayzoneisbeingturnedintoatwilightzoneoffear,amessagetoanyonethattheycanbetakenawayinthemiddleof
thenight.WashingtonPost

Editorial:Whenreportsofthemissingbooksellerssurfaced,somespeculatedthatrogueChineseagentscouldhavemountedasnatch-and-grab
campaignwithoutapprovalfromhigher-upsinBeijing.Mr.Guistelevisedconfessionsuggestsofficialknowledgeandcomplicity.Thecases
representanescalationofChinasassaultsonjournalism,theautonomyofHongKongandtherightsofoverseasChinesewhoarecitizensof
othersovereignnations.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

JeromeCohenwrites:IfthecurrentChinesepresidentweretohonorhisfatherspolicy,Chinasprospectsfortransitioningfromdictatorshipto
democracywouldbebrighter.SotoowouldbethefutureofChinaspubliclawyers.Ihopethattheywillcontinuethestruggle,evenwithonearm
tiedbehindthem.Itwouldbetragic,forbothlawyersandChinesesociety,iftheyweretobecomemeretechnicalpractitioners.WallStreet
Journal(subscriptionrequired)

Taiwan

NodogmaismoreimportanttoBeijingthanOneChina,theconceptthatTaiwanisapartofasingleChinesenationjusttemporarilyestranged.
Americaandmuchoftherestoftheworldacquiescetothatposition,denyingtherealitythatTaiwanhassetitscourseasanindependentstate.
Lastweekendsvote,inwhichtheTaiwaneseelectorateoverwhelmingendorsedapartythatrejectsBeijingsOneChinaformula,confirmedthe
directioninthemostemphaticwaytodate.ThatnotonlyputsChinainabind,buttheU.S.too.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

TheelectionofTsaiIng-wenaspresidentofTaiwanwasmetinChinaonMondaywithsparseandlargelycriticalcomment,suggestingbothalack
ofinteresttowardacandidatewhosepartysnativistleaningsmanyordinaryChinesedonotunderstandandcensorshipinthenewsmediaand
onlineforumsaboutanoutcomethattheCommunistPartyhadnotwishedtosee.NewYorkTimes

PatrickCroninandPhoebeBenichwrite:ThesewindsofchangeoriginatinginTaiwanarealsocertaintobuffetthenextU.S.president.Since
normalizingrelationswithChinaandthepassageoftheTaiwanRelationsActin1979,repeatedadministrationshavemaintainedahighdegreeof
ambiguityregardingsupportforTaiwan.AreenergizedTaiwaneseelectoratewilltestthelongevityofAmericascurrentstrategicambiguityabout
theactualextentofitscommitmenttoTaiwanForeignPolicy

NorthKorea

[E]venasnewsanctionsloom,NorthKoreasbiggesttesttodatehasthrownintostarkreliefthefailureofexistingonestohaltitsnuclear
progressandwithChinastillunwillingtocastitstreatyallyintoeconomicruin,analystsseelittlehopethatthenextroundofmeasureswill
achievethatgoal.FinancialTimes

NorthKoreanleaderKimJongUn'srecentnuclearweapontestwasdesignedtoboosthisdomesticlegitimacyaheadofararerulingparty
conferenceinMaythatcouldformalizemarket-basedeconomicexperimentsintheisolatedcountry,analystssay.-Reuters

VictorGilinskyandHenrySokolskiwrite:ThefirstthingtosayaboutNorthKoreasJan.6nucleartestisthat,despitethepronouncementsof
instantexperts,weknowalmostnothingaboutitstechnicalcharacteristics.Eventherelationoftheseismicsignaltotheactualsizeofthe
explosionisuncertain.Buttherearesomehintsaboutthetestssignificanceforproliferationthatthepress,initseagernesstodismissNorth
Koreasclaimthatitdetonatedahydrogenweapon,seemstohavemissed.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SoutheastAsia

Theoutcomeofthesecongressesisusuallysettledmonthsinadvance,butaprotractedspatbetweenfactionsloyaltoMr.DungandMr.Trong
hasresultedinlast-minutemaneuvering.WhoevercomesoutontopcoulddeterminethefutureofVietnamscarefullycalibratedstrategicbalance
betweenChina,itsideologicalallyandmaintradingpartner,andtheUnitedStates,whichthepartyeliteincreasinglyconsidersanimportant
counterweightagainstgrowingChineseinfluenceintheregion.NewYorkTimes

ElectionbattlesinthePhilippinesarentjustfoughtoverwhogetsthemostvotes,butalsowhogetstoparticipate,withoneoftheleading
candidatesforthisyearspresidentialrace,GracePoe,waitingfortheSupremeCourttodecidewhethersheiseligibletoleadthecountry.Wall
StreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

MyanmararmychiefMinAungHlaingnominatedmilitaryofficers,whoholdaquarterofseatsinparliament,totheirposts,statemediasaidon
Tuesday,anotherstepbythearmyinwhathassofarsurprisedmanyasaremarkablypeacefultransition.-Reuters

ChinaaccusedthePhilippinesonTuesdayofdeliberatelytryingtoscarepeoplebysayingChinahadwarnedasmallcivilianplanecarrying
PhilippineofficialsitwastrespassingastheyinspectedanislandinthedisputedSouthChinaSea.-Reuters

Australia

PresidentBarackObamaiswelcominghisfirstforeignleaderofthenewyear,AustralianPrimeMinisterMalcolmTurnbull,fortalksthatwillcover
theIslamicStatemilitantgroupanda12-nationPacificRimtradeagreementthatincludestheircountries.AssociatedPress

ReturntoTop

Security

Cybersecurity

Cyberattackswagedagainstthenation'scriticalmanufacturingsectornearlydoubledinfiscalyear2015,governmentexpertssaidinanewreport.
WashingtonTimes

ReturntoTop

Russia/Europe
Ukraine

WhenafriendinKyivcalledIsraeli-AmericanfilmmakerEvgenyAfineevskyinNovember2013andconvincedhimtodropeverythingandtakehis
camerastoUkrainebecause"somethingwashappening"there,hehadnoideawhathewasgettinghimselfinto,letalonethatitwouldleadtoan
Oscarnomination.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheEuropeanUnionpressedUkraineauthoritiesonMondaytoovercomepoliticalfeudingandimplementpromisedreformsasitlookstoshore
upthecountry'sdemocraticandeconomiccredentials.-Reuters

AndersAslundwrites:Ukrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.
Thecountryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.Nevertheless,
thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbein2016.AtlanticCouncil

Russia

Kara-MurzaalsobelieveshispoisoningmayhavebeenanactofrevengeforhislobbyingforU.S.sanctionsagainstRussianofficialsunderthe
MagnitskyAct,namedforSergeiMagnitsky,awhistleblowingRussianlawyerwhodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afteraccusingofficialsoflarge-
scalefraud.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheRussianStateDumaCommitteeonConstitutionalLegislationandState-Buildinghasdeclinedtoendorseacontroversialdraftbillthatwould
introducefinesandarrestsforpeoplewhopubliclyexpresstheirhomosexuality.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Russiasrublecurrency,batteredbyfallingglobaloilprices,hasdroppedtoitslowestvalueoncurrencyexchangemarketsinmorethanayear.
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

France

ThegroupsformationunderscoreshowtheU.S.andFrenchhaveexpandedtheirrelationshipastheU.S.-ledcoalitionagainsttheIslamicState
preparesforanexpansionofthewar.OnTuesday,Carterwillembarkonamulti-daytriptoEuropethatincludesmeetingsinPariswithdefense
ministersfromthecountriesprovidingsomeofthemostsignificantcontributionstothemilitarycampaign:France,Australia,Germany,Italy,the
NetherlandsandBritainWashingtonPostsCheckpoint

MorethanayearaftertheterrorattacksonCharlieHebdoandaPariskoshersupermarket,thevictimsrelativesarestilldemandinganswerson
whetherorhowFrancesgovernmentandsecurityforcesfailed.-Politico

Germany

JosefJoffewrites:Youcanthaveopenbordersandamunificentwelfarestate.Somethinghastogive.SinceevenMightyMerkelcannotoverturn
ancientdispensations,shewillinevitablyslipintoNo,wecantandcloseborders,astheSwedesandDaneshavedone.High-mindedness
stopsattheballotbox.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

JohnVinocurwrites:Thechancellornowfacesasocietythatisgaggingontherealizationthatotherone-timepillarsofnationalprobityhave
crackedfortheworldtoseeDeutscheBankwithits$2.5billionfinebyU.S.regulatorslastyearforraterigging,andVolkswagen,facingmassive
lawsuitsafteracknowledgingitfakeditscarsemission-controlcapabilities.Byitsownstandards,Germanyisreeling.AngelaMerkelnolonger
hasthecountryfullyinhergrasp.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Europe

TheEuropeanUnionandtheU.S.areracingtomeetadeadlineonanewcommercialdata-sharingaccordtoreplaceonestruckdownbytheEU
lastyearbecauseofconcernsoverAmericansurveillancepractices.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

AspresidentoftheEuropeanCouncilthegrouprepresentingtheEuropeanUnionsoften-clashing28leadersDonaldTuskisforever
promotingabalancebetweennationalsovereigntyononehandandcommonvaluesandgoalsontheother.OnMonday,hischallengewas
especiallypersonal.NewYorkTimes

[T]hedozensofmembersoftheBritishParliamentwhospentanextraordinarythreehoursMondaydebatingaboutthefront-runnerforthe
RepublicannominationforU.S.presidentdidnotbanDonaldTrump.WashingtonPost

NATO

PolandwantsNATOtoagreetodeploy'substantial'numbersofforcesandequipmentincentralandeasternEuropetoensuretheregion'ssecurity
inthefaceofamoreaggressiveRussia,PresidentAndrzejDudasaidonMonday.-Reuters

ReturntoTop

Americas
LatinAmerica

Justweeksbeforelawmakerswillconsiderherfate,BrazilianPresidentDilmaRousseffisdesperatelytryingtodemonstratethatsheisstillin
chargeofSouthAmerica'smostpopulousnation.WashingtonTimes

PresidentDilmaRousseff'sopponentswithinhermaincoalitionpartner,thefractiousBrazilianDemocraticMovementParty(PMDB),arelosing
hopethattheycanimpeachtheleftistleaderandreplaceherwiththeirman,VicePresidentMichelTemer.-Reuters

AnagreementtobuildoiltankersinIranforVenezuelahasbeenleftinlimboyearsafteritwasannouncedasWesternsanctionsplus
disagreementsoverpaymentsanddeliverytermstooktheirtoll,sourcesfamiliarwiththemattersay.-Reuters

TobyDershowitzandJosephHumirewrite:Thepost-dealinfluxofinternationalinvestmenttoIranwillsurelychallengeMacriseffortstocurb
Tehransinfluenceathome.Sofar,hehasshownheisuptothistask.ItisimperativethattheU.S.andotherfriendlygovernmentshelpthenew
Argentinepresidentasheseekstorighthiscountrysjudicialintegrity,aneffortforwhichAlbertoNismangavehislifetoprotect.TheHill

ReturntoTop

TheFPIOvernightBriefisadailyproductoftheForeignPolicyInitiative,whichseekstopromoteanactiveU.S.foreignpolicycommittedto
robustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
strengtheningAmericasglobaleconomiccompetitiveness.Tosubmitcommentsorsuggestions,emailovernight@foreignpolicyi.org.

TheForeignPolicyInitiative Telephone:(202)296-3322
11DupontCircle,NWSuite325 E-mail:info@foreignpolicyi.org
Washington,D.C.20036 VisitOurWebsite
Tounsubscribe,clickhere DonatetoFPI

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/23/201601:49:55PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ACUPOFHOTCOCOA&SOMEGOODREADINGMATERIAL][JDDD1-23]Fwd:StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTESTmovement:nytimes.com,1/23David
Subject:
Satter/WSJ:RUstateofMURDERunderPutin.....[WD]Two'MustReads'fromPaulG'sPen:WaterGetting...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,January23,201612:54PM
Subject:Fwd:[ACUPOFHOTCOCOA&SOMEGOODREADINGMATERIAL][JDDD1-23]Fwd:StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTESTmovement:nytimes.com,
1/23DavidSatter/WSJ:RUstateofMURDERunderPutin.....[WD]Two'MustReads'fromPaulG'sPen:WaterGetting...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Jan23,2016at3:52PM
Subject:[ACUPOFHOTCOCOA&SOMEGOODREADINGMATERIAL][JDDD1-23]Fwd:StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTEST
movement:nytimes.com,1/23DavidSatter/WSJ:RUstateofMURDERunderPutin.....[WD]Two'MustReads'fromPaulG'sPen:WaterGettingWarmer
forFrogIfPutinInvadestheBaltics......[WL]Glick/JP:ISRAELHASRUSSIAINITSFACEANDWE'RENOTTHEREPutin'sBookofQuotes
........FINALLY:Fwd:SNOWSTORM-2016
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Sat,Jan23,2016at2:32PM
Subject:StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTESTmovement:"RussianANXIETYswellsasoilpricescollapse,"nytimes.com,1/23
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

StrongpieceonRussia'sswellingPROTESTmovement:"RussianANXIETYswellsasoilpricescollapse,"nytimes.com,1/23

And:FromFridaysWSJDavidSatter,TheRussianstateofMURDERunderPutin,WSJ,1/22,op-ed

[ED:SEEBELOW]

And:FromtodaysWSJHolmanJenkins,IstheWestsPUTINSILENCEover?WSJ,1/23,Op-ed

And:LitvinenkocaseexposesCORBYN[BritishLaborPartyleader],http://www.politco.eu/article/alexander-litvinenko-
assassinatilon-vladimir-putin-jeremy-corbyn/

And:MarkGALEOTTI,WhoneedsassassinswhenyouvegotHACKERS?nytimes.com,1/23.Op-ed

And:This[murderofLitvinenko]couldhaveoccurredonlywithPutins
approval,http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27506685.html

ExtensivecommentsbyformerKGBoperativeYuriiShvets.

And:PutinsinvitationtoEUROPEANJEWSsparksmixedreceptions,http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27499866.html

Putin:Theycancometous.TheylefttheSovietUnion.Letthemreturn.

And:U.S.,RussiasaidtonearcompromisetoUNLOCKSyriapeacetalks,Bloomberg.com,1/23

SATTERPIECE:

TheRussianStateofMurderUnderPutin
LettheLitvinenkomurderinquiryinspiremoreinvestigationsoftheKremlinsuglytactics.

ENLARGE

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheKremlininMoscow,Jan.21. PHOTO:ZUMAPRESS

By

DAVIDSATTER

Jan.21,20166:33p.m.ET

36COMMENTS

OnThursday,aBritishinquiryintothepoloniumpoisoningdeathofformerRussianagentAlexanderLitvinenkoin2006implicatedRussian
PresidentVladimirPutininthemurder.TheannouncementwasthefirststeptowardjusticenotjustforLitvinenkobutforallofthevictimsofRussianstate
terror.

TheevidencethatLitvinenkowaskilledbytheRussianregimewasoverwhelmingfromthebeginning.ButtheinquirysconclusionthatMr.Putinprobably
approvedthemurderbeforehandisthefirstinstanceofanofficialbodyconnectingMr.PutinpersonallytothemurderofamemberoftheRussian
opposition.ThefindingwasmadepossiblebecausethecrimewascommittednotinRussiabutinEngland,anditwastheBritishauthoritiesnottheRussians
whoinvestigated.

ItisnowimperativenotonlyfortheWestbutforthefutureofRussiathattheLitvinenkoinquirysetaprecedentfortheobjectiveinternationalreviewofthe
casesofpoliticalterrorisminRussia.TheseincludethebloodysiegesatMoscowsDubrovkatheaterin2002andataschoolinBeslanin2004,the
assassinationsofjournalistsandoppositionleadersand,aboveall,thedeadly1999apartmentbombingsthathelpedbringMr.Putintopower.

IntheLitvinenkocase,theallegedassassins,AndreiLugovoiandDmitryKovtun,wereaccusedbytheBritishinquiryofslippingpolonium-210into
Litvinenkostea.AradioactivetrailwasleftalloverLondon.TracesofpoloniumwerefoundinMr.Lugovoishotelroom,atasushirestaurantwhere
Litvinenkodinedwiththetwomen,andontheseatoccupiedbyMr.LugovoionaBritishAirlinesflightfromMoscowtoLondon.

BritishprosecutorswantedtobringacaseagainstMessrs.LugovoiandKovtunafterthemurder,butthatprovedimpossiblebecauseofRussian
obstruction.WhenBritainaskedtointerviewMr.Lugovoi,aformerKGBbodyguard,andMr.Kovtun,aformerSovietarmyofficer,theKremlinsaidit
wasconductingitsowninvestigation.SixmonthsafterLitvinenkosdeath,theBritishprosecutorrequestedMr.Lugovoisextradition.Mr.Putinrefused
thoughRussiahadsignedtheCouncilofEuropeExtraditionConventionin2001.InDecember2007,Mr.LugovoiwaselectedtotheStateDuma,orlower
houseofparliament,givinghimimmunityfromprosecution.

TheLitvinenkomurderwasadramaticexampleoftheRussianregimescriminalmethods,butitwasfarfromunique.Provocationandpolitical
assassinationsarethehallmarkofpost-SovietRussiaandledtothePutindictatorship.

ThefirstunexaminedepisodewasthemassacreattheOstankinotelevisiontowerin1993,inthewakeofBorisYeltsinsillegalorderabolishingtheRussian
parliament.Thousandsofunarmedpro-parliamentprotestersnearthetowerwerefiredonwithautomaticweapons,leaving46deadand124wounded.
Yeltsinthenpersuadedthearmytoattacktheparliamentbuildingand,inthewakeofmilitaryvictory,introducedasuper-presidencywithnear-dictatorial
powers.

Withnocheckonexecutivepower,YeltsinlaunchedthefirstChechenwarin1994andfacilitatedthewidespreadcorruptionthatdroveRussiaintopoverty
andhardship.

ThesecondunexaminedepisodewastheseriesofRussianapartmentbombingsinthreecitiesin1999,claimingmorethan300lives.Thebombingswere
usedtojustifyasecondChechenwar,directedbyMr.Putin,whowasthenprimeminister,andhelpedhimwinthepresidencyin2000.Hisfirstofficialact
wastopardonYeltsinforanycrimescommittedinoffice.AnunexplodedbombwasdiscoveredinthebasementofabuildinginRyazan.Thepersonswho
planteditturnedouttobenotChechenterroristsbutagentsofRussiasintelligenceservice,theFSB.

FourRussiancitizenswhotriedtoinvestigatetheapartmentbombingsweremurdered.TheseweretheDumadeputiesSergeiYushenkovandYuri
Shchekochikhin,investigativereporterAnnaPolitkovskaya,andAlexanderLitvinenko.

PopularsupportforthesecondChechenwarwasreinforcedwiththehelpoftwoterroristacts,thesiegesoftheDubrovkatheaterandtheBeslanschool,
inwhichtherewasevidencethattheregimehadarole.Ineachcase,athousandormorehostageswereseizedbyChechenterrorists,Mr.Putinrefusedto
negotiateandactedinsteadtokilltheterroristsaswellashundredsofhostages.TheleadersoftheattackshadrecentlybeenreleasedfromRussianjails,
andauthoritieshadignoredcrediblewarningsofanimpendingterroriststrike.

IntheaftermathoftheBeslanschoolmassacre,inwhich318hostages,including186children,werekilled,Mr.Putinannouncedtheabolitionofthepopular
electionofgovernors,adirectviolationoftheRussianConstitution.

AsMr.Putinconsolidateddictatorialpower,hefacedaweakbutinfluentialoppositionledbyBorisNemtsov,aformerdeputyprimeminister.OnFeb.27,
2015,NemtsovwasmurderedontheMoskvoretskyBridgeoppositetheKremlin,alocationunderaround-the-clocksurveillancebyMr.Putinspersonal
guard.Thetriggermenwerearrestedbutnotthemastermind,andtheStateDumahasrefusedtoconductaninvestigation.

ThisiswhytheLitvinenkoinquirysoutcomeissoimportant.ThetruthaboutRussiasrecenthistoryisknowable,butnotthroughthecontrolledinstitutions
oftheRussianstate.ExaminingthemanycrimesoftheYeltsinandPutinerasisthereforeaninternationalobligation.SuchaneffortmaysparetheWestfrom
uninformedpolicybutitsrealvalueisthehelpitcangivetotheRussianpeople,whocannotbegintobuildabetterfuturewithoutfreeingthemselvesfroma
carapaceoflies.
Mr.SatteristheauthorofTheLessYouKnow,theBetterYouSleep:RussiasRoadtoTerrorandDictatorshipUnderYeltsinandPutin,coming
inMayfromYaleUniversityPress.

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Jan23,2016at2:17PM
Subject:TheWaterisGettingWarmerfortheFrogbyPaulG/oble
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

Saturday,January23,2016

TheWaterisGettingWarmerfortheFrog

PaulGoble

Staunton,January23ManyareexpectingthattheconclusionoftheBritishjudicialinvestigationintothemurderofAleksandrLitvinenkothat
VladimirPutinwasbehindthatcrimewillleadtoaseachangeinthereactionoftheWesttoPutinandhisregime.Asmuchasonewouldliketo
believethat,theprospectsdonotappeartobegood.

Thereasonissimple:WesternleadersandindeedWesternpublicsareliketheproverbialfrogwhomighthavejumpedoutofakettle
ofboilingwaterbutquietlyacceptstheirpositionifthewaterissimplywarmedup,ultimatelytoboiling.Eachriseintemperatureisacceptedas
thenewnormal,andtheoveralltrendtowardtheboilingpointisignoredoratleastdiscounted.

Putinbeganhisrisebykilling300ofhisowncitizenstorestartaviciouswarinChechnya,butmostintheWestrefusedtoacceptthefindingsof
expertsandtheevidencefromRyazanonthatandcontinuedtolookathimasthecontinuerofthemarketorientedpoliciesthattheWestcaredmoreabout
thandemocracyandfreedom.

Putinarrestedandinsomecaseshadhisopponentskilled,andagainWesternleaderssaidjustastheyhadinthe1930saboutHitlerthatthestories
wereoverblownandthattheKremlinleaderwassomeonetheWesthadacompellinginteresttocooperatewithratherthancontainandworktoremove.

PutinlaidouthisplansforarevanchistpolicyinMunich,andtheseweredismissedinWashingtonandothercapitalsasplayingtohisdomestic
audience.ThenheinvadedGeorgiaandmorerecentlyhehasinvadedUkraine.ButinsteadofsupportingthosevictimsofRussianaggression,theWestchose
tonegotiatewithPutinaboutthemwithoutthem.

Ineverycase,thelogichasbeenthesame:First,someconstantlytrytoblamethevictims,suggestingthatPutinhadtoactthewayhedid.Then,
theyinsistthathecouldntbeasbadashiscriticssay.Andthen,suchpeoplearguethatevenifheis,heisstillsomeonetheyhavetotalktobecauseof
Russiaspower.

Becauseofsuchattitudes,therehasalwaysbeenamarketforthosewhoarguethattheycanestablishrapportwithPutinandhisregimeandachieve
abreakthrough.Thosewhosuggesttheyaredeceivingthemselvesonthatpointandevenbeingplayedaredismissednowjustasconsistentlyaswerethewild
ChurchillmenwhoopposedHitler.

WhatisperhapsthemostappallingandhypocriticalaspectofthissituationisthatmanyWesterngovernmentsdoinfacttakesmall
stepsindicatingtheyunderstandthesituationbutdonotrefrainfromsayinghowsorrytheyaretohavetodoeventhatorfromdispatchingtheir
diplomatstoMoscowtonegotiatewithPutinabouthisagenda.

ThetimehascometorecognizethatPutin,likeHitlerandStalinbeforehim,willkeepmovinginincreasinglyhorrificdirectionsbothat
homeandabroadunlesstherestoftheworldclearlyrecognizeshisevilandtakesstepstoblockhimforitssakeandforthesakeofRussians
aswellbecausedespitePutinsmegalomania,PutinisnotRussiaandRussiaisnotPutin.

ButasofyetanddespitetheLitvinenkocasefindings,theretragicallydoesnotseemtobemuchofawillingnesstorecognizetherealitywefind
ourselvesin:thewaterthatthefrogfindsitselfinisgettinghotterandhotterandunlesssomethingisdone,thewaterwillboilandthefrogasaresultwilldie.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Jan23,2016at2:11PM
Subject:IfPutinInvadestheBaltics,RussiaWillSharetheFateoftheUSSR,ShtepaSaysbyPaulGoble
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

Saturday,January23,2016

IfPutinInvadestheBaltics,RussiaWillSharetheFateoftheUSSR,ShtepaSays

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.fi/2016/01/if-putin-invades-baltics-russia-will.html

PaulGoble

Staunton,January23TheSovietUniondisintegratedwhenMoscowattemptedtoholdtheperipheryandinthefirstinstancetheillegallyoccupied
Balticcountriesbyforcealone,VadiimShtepasays.AndiftheRussianFederationisfoolishenoughtoinvadetheBalticcountriesnow,itwillsharetheSoviet
Unionsfate.

Indeed,theRussianregionalistwhonowlivesinTallinnsays,inthisway,theBalticcountrieswhichatonetimebeganthedisintegrationofthe
USSRwillinaparadoxicalwayplayasimilarhistoricalrolealsoforitslegalsuccessor(spektr.press/rossiya-i-baltiya-kto-kogo-perepugaet/).

InanarticleyesterdayentitledRussiaandtheBaltics:WhoisScaringWhom?Shtepawritesthatthismonthisthe25thanniversaryofMoscows
effortstoholdtheUSSRtogetherbyusingforceinLithuaniaandLatvia,actionsthathadtheunintendedeffectofacceleratingthedemiseofthatcountry
becausefewwantedtoliveinastateheldtogetherbyforcealone.

Astheworldknows,Lithuania,LatviaandEstoniaplayedaleadingroleintheliquidationoftheSovietempire,aboveallbyinsistingonthe
denunciationofthesecretprotocolsoftheMolotov-RibbentropPactbywhichStalinandHitlerdividedupEasternEurope,Shtepasays.

ThedemocraticRussiaof1991willinglyrecognizedtheindependenceoftheBalticcountries,hecontinues.Butpresent-dayPutinRussiahas
rapidlyevolvedinthedirectionoftheformerSovietimperialworldview.NowthepresidentoftheRussianFederationdeclaresthatthedisintegrationofthe
USSRwasthegreatestgeopoliticalcatastropheofthe20thcentury.

Tragically,thathasbecomemainstreamthinkinginMoscow,withPutinandhissupportersviewingalltherestofthepost-Sovietcountriesnotas
reallyindependentstatebutassomekindofpoliticalmisunderstandingwhichbyaccidentappearedonthemap.Andiftheyinsistontheirindependence,
RussiawillbegintotreattheminahostilewayuptoandincludingusingmilitaryforceagainstthemasinGeorgiaandUkraine.

TheBalticcountries,however,byjoiningNATOin2004haveturnedouttobebeyondreachandpossiblythereforetheygenerateparticular
hostilityamongtherestorersofempirewhoknowthattheycannotactagainstthethreethewaytheyhaveelsewherelestRussiafinditselfinaconflictwith
themostimportantmilitaryallianceontheplanet.

ButthathasntstoppedRussiancommentatorsfromtalkingaboutusingforceagainstEstonia,LatviaandLithuania,Shtepasays.AnMGIMO
militaryexpert,forexample,hassuggestedthatMoscowshoulddojustthatifNATObacksitsmemberTurkeyagainstRussia,somethinghesaysitcoulddo
easilyandquickly(svpressa.ru/war21/article/138968/).

IthasntpreventedVladimirPutinfrompromulgatinganewsecuritydoctrinewhichidentifiesNATOandofcourseNATOcountrieslikeEstonia,
LatviaandLithuaniaaspotentialenemiesoftheRussianFederation(rus.delfi.lv/news/daily/abroad/rossiya-oficialno-vklyuchila-nato-i-ssha-v-spisok-ugroz-
bezopasnosti.d?id=46901963).

AndithasnotstoppedtheRussiandefenseministryfromannouncingtheformationofnewdivisionsinthewest,divisionsthatcouldbedeployedat
theBalticcountries,anactionthatRussiancommentatorshavesuggestedissimplyareasonableMoscowresponsetoNATOseffortstosupportitsmembers
(rbc.ru/politics/22/01/2016/56a1e4999a794761d2b7f9f5).

AfewpeopleintheWesthavebeenintimidatedbyMoscowsstatementsandactions,buttheyforgetthefactsofhistory,theRussianregionalist
says.TheBalticcountriessoughttojoinNATOpreciselyinordertosecurethemselvesforeverfrompossiblerepetitionofaggressionbytheireastern
neighbor.

Shtepaadds:itisinstructivethattoday,48percentofthecitizensofUkrainesupportjoiningNATO,whenonlyayearagothefigurewas34
percent.Thus,inUkraineasintheBalticcountries,RussianaggressionhasledtoaresultoppositetowhatMoscowintends,togrowinginterestinthe
Westernalliance.

Unfortunately,Moscowdoesnotappeartohavelearnedthislessonortobeconstrainedfromdoingtheunthinkable.Twoyearsago,aRussianwar
againstUkraineseemedimprobablyabsurdbutthenitbecameatragicreality.Consequently,oneshouldnotdismissRussiarhetoricasasimpleblufforas
playingtoadomesticaudience.

Moreover,Shtepawrites,Russiainthecourseofthe[Ukrainian]warhasusedaplethoraoftechnologieswhichitisnowcustomarytocall
hybrid.AnditisquitelikelythatanyRussinaggressionagainsttheBalticswouldnotatleastatthebeginninghavetheformofadirectmilitaryinvasion.

ForaKremlinfilledwithnostalgiafortheUSSR,heconcludes,oppositiontothehostileWesthasbeentransformedalreadyintoanendin
itself,andinthisartificiallypumpedupatmosphere,itisimpossibletoexcludethatsomekindoftragicaccidentcouldtriggerarealmilitaryclashbetween
RussiaandNATOintheBalticcountries.

ButgivenwhatsuchanactionwouldleadtoforRussiaitselfinthefirstinstance,itisthusworthaskingwhoshouldbemoreafraidofsuchamove,those
inMoscowpossiblyconsideringitorthoseMoscowthinkswouldbeitsonlyvictims?

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:WalterLycholat<lycholat@earthlink.net>
Date:Sat,Jan23,2016at3:00PM
Subject:ISRAELHASRUSSIAINITSFACEANDWE'RENOTTHERE
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Cc:5MORE

Here'sarealeyepopperfromtheJerusalemPost.ItnotonlymakescleartheRussianGermancompetitionoverSyriaandLebanonbutalsoexposeswhythe
Israeli's(Judah)willgotoGermanyforprotectionfromRussia.Here'stheJerusalempostarticleIsraelandtheRussiachallenge:

CarolineGlick,JerusalemPost|January18

WETALKEDABOUTTHIS

IsraeliAirForcecommandersarereportedlydeeplyworried
aboutRussiasmilitarypresenceinSyria.
WhenRussianPresidentVladimirPutindeployedhisforcesto
Syrialastyear,heclaimedthatthedeploymentwouldbebrief.
Lastweek,whenthetermsofthedeploymentagreementconcluded
betweenRussiaandSyriaweremadepublic,wediscovered
thatthoseearlyclaimswerefalse.Underthetermsofthe
deal,RussiacanmaintainpermanentbasesinSyria.

Tobesure,PutinsdecisiontosetuppermanentbasesinSyria
isnotdirectedagainstIsrael.RussiaandIsraelhavebeenable
toreachtacticalagreementsoverSyria.
ButIsraelsabilitytoreachtacticalunderstandingswithRussia
doesntmeanIsraelcantrustthatRussiasoperationsinthe
areawillnotharmitsnationalsecurityinsignificantways.
Forinstance,thereportsthatRussiaistransferringarmsto
Hezbollaharedeeplyworrying.Forthepastfiveyears,according
toreportsinforeignmedia,theAirForcehasrepeatedlybombed
shipmentsofIranianweaponsdestinedforHezbollahforcesin
Lebanon.
Thegovernmentandmilitaryhavenooptionsfordealingwith
Russiassuddenemergenceasamajorpowerinourbackyard.
AndthereisnothingnewinIsraelshelplessness.
WeveneverhadanoptionforreininginMoscow.
UntilBarackObamaenteredtheWhiteHouse,everyU.S.president
fromFranklinRooseveltonbelieveditwasaU.S.economic
andstrategicinterestofthefirstordertocurbRussianpowerin
theMiddleEast.ThechiefreasontheU.S.beganitsstrategicalliance
withIsraelafterthe1967SixDayWarwasbecausebydefeating
RussianclientsEgyptandSyria,Israelproveditsvaluetothe
U.S.sColdWarstrategy.

Inthesucceedingdecades,IsraelandtheU.S.hadadivision
oflabor.ItwasIsraelsjobtodefeatordeterRussianorSoviet
clientsintheArabworld.ItwastheU.S.sjobtodeterRussiaor
theSovietUnion.

Now,inthefinalyearoftheObamapresidency,allthatisgone.
ObamaiscontenttoseeRussiaexertpowerandinfluencethat
noneofhispredecessorswouldhavecountenanced.Andso,for
thefirsttime,IsraelfindsitselfstandingaloneagainstRussia,
withnoclearmeansofprotectingitsvitalnationalsecurityinterests.

MM
PSJustprovesallthosewanting"peace"intheMiddleEastareNAIVE.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterLycholat<lycholat@earthlink.net>
Date:Sat,Jan23,2016at2:50PM
Subject:[new-book-of-putin-quotes-echoes-historys-darkest-dictators]
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

ComparePutintorecentfamoustyrantslikeHitler,Mao,Qadafi,Niyazov,andLeninwithhisnewbook.I'dliketogetacopytogetaninsightintohis
thinking.LetmeknowifucangetanEnglishtranslatedone.

http://www.thetrumpet.com/article/13485.2.0.0/world/new-book-of-putin-quotes-echoes-historys-darkest-dictators

MM

PSIthinktheseguysknowPutinisaniceguyandreflectthataccordingly.[....))))....]

NewBookofPutinQuotesEchoesHistorysDarkestDictators
January20,2016FromtheTrumpet.com

ThedecisiontopublishanddistributethebookmayhelptheRussianpresidenttotightenhisgriponpower.

BYJEREMIAHJACQUES

****

TocelebratetheNewYear,theRussiangovernmentgavehundredsofhigh-rankingofficialsaspecialgift:a400-pagebookofprophetic
quotesbyPresidentVladimirPutin.
Thebook,titledWordsThatChangetheWorld,includes19ofthemostimportantspeechesandinterviewsPutinhasgivenduringthelast
12years.Hundredsofshort,tweetablepassagesareboldedinthetext.
AntonVolodin,whospearheadedthebookspublication,saidPutinswordsarevaluabletoRussianleaderslargelybecausetheytendto
beprophetic:WenoticedthateverythingPutinsays,tovaryingdegrees,comestrue,hesaid.Inthisbook,wehavetracedhiswordsand
confirmedthisidea.Putinswordscanbedescribedasprophetic.

AfterPutinsdeputychiefofstaffsawacopyofthebook,hedeemeditamust-readforallRussianofficials.

Hesnappedupall1,500copiesoftheinitialprintrunanddistributedthemtoofficialsacrossthenationasNewYearsgifts.Theyweresent
alongwithalettersayingthebookshouldbeviewedasaguidetotheKremlinsvaluesandguidingprinciples.

Anotherprintrunisscheduledforlaterthismonth,whichwillmakethebookavailabletothepublicfor$11percopy.Plansareintheworks
forChineseandEnglishtranslations.

Thedistributionofthisbookhassoberingimplicationsbecauseitfollowsapatternsetbyseveralofhistorysdarkestdictatorships.

TheSovietScriptures
DuringthedaysoftheSovietUnion,governmentofficialsandthegeneralpublicwereencouragedtobewellacquaintedwithVladimir
LeninsCollectedWorks.

Thesebooksinstructedreadersonhowtothinkabouteverythingfrommilitaryscienceandindustrytoagricultureandtheroleofyoung
peopleinSovietsociety.

From1918to1974,theSovietspublishedatotalof465,714,000copiesofCollectedWorks,oftenrevisingthecontenttoconformtothe
partyseverevolvingpolicies.TheGreatSovietEncyclopediasaysthebooksaidedgreatlyinthepartystheoreticalworkandinthe
propagationofMarxism-Leninism.

MaosManual
ThentherewasMaoTse-Tungsso-calledLittleRedBook.DuringChinasCulturalRevolutionofthe1960sand1970s,itwasvirtually
mandatoryforallChinesepeopletoownandconstantlycarryacopyofthisbooklayingoutallofChairmanMaosideologies.Researches
saythatonlytheHolyBiblehassoldmorecopiesthanMaosbook.
ThetroubleisthatMaoscommunistideologiesendedupkilling65to75millionpeople.Thatmakeshimthemanresponsibleformore
murdersthananyotherpersoninhistory.AndhistoriansagreethathisLittleRedBookplayedamajorroleinadvancinghislethalideas
amongtheChinesepopulace.

TheFhrersFolios
AnddontforgetMeinKampf,whichAdolfHitlerwrotewhileimprisonedbeforehebecomeGermanyschancellor.Thisbooklaidout
HitlersplanforGermany,bynamingJewsasraciallyinferiorandsayingtheythreatenedtheraciallysuperiorAryans.
DuringHitlersreign,acopyofthebookwasgiventoeverysoldierandnewlywedcoupleinGermany.SalesofthebookalsomadeHitlera
wealthyman.BytheendofWorldWarII,wellover10millioncopieshadbeensoldordistributedinGermanyalone.
HistoriansagreethatthewidespreaddisseminationofMeinKampfhelpedHitlerwinGermansovertohiscause,andgavetractiontohis
diabolicalideas.

QadhafisCopy
Morerecently,LibyaslateMuammarQadhafipublishedtheeccentricGreenBook.Sometimesdescribedasahow-tomanualfor
dictators,thebooksetoutQadhafisphilosophiesoneverythingfromthedangersofpoliticalpartiestotheimportanceofbreastfeeding.
Fromitsfirstpublicationin1975untilQadhafiwaskilledin2011,thebookwasrequiredreadingforallLibyans.
AbdulMajid,anEnglishteacherinthecapital,saidtheworkhelpedQadhafimaintainhisirongriponLibyatothedetrimentofthecountry:
TheGreenBookwasadisasterforLibya.Itledthecountrytoitscurrentmiserablestate.

NiyazovsNonsense
Finally,wecometoTurkmenistanslateandunlamenteddictatorSaparmuratNiyazov.From1985untilhisdeathin2006,Niyazovruled
TurkmenistanwithapersonalitycultthatputJosefStalinstoshame.In2004,hepublishedTheBookoftheSoul,whichcombinedhis
religiousinstructionwithrevisionistTurkmenianhistoryandplentyofforaysintopoliticsandphilosophy.
NiyazovsaidTheBookoftheSoulwasholywrit,onparwiththeKoran.Withhisheavilyrepressivestatesecurityapparatus,hemadeit
mandatoryreadingateverylevelofelementaryandcollegiateeducationoftentotheexclusionofsubjectssuchasmathandscience.
Niyazovevenhadquestionsabouthisbookaddedtojobinterviewscripts,civilservicetestsandthenationaldriverslicenseexam.
NiyazovalsohadacopyofTheBookoftheSouljettisonedouttheairlockofaRussianspaceshuttlesothathecouldtelltheTurkmen
peoplehehadconqueredouterspace.In2006,NiyazovsaidhehadmadeadealwithGodtoguaranteethatanyonewhoreadthebook
threetimeswouldautomaticallygotoheaven.

BackonEarth
ThedecisiontopublishanddistributethenewbookofVladimirPutinsquotesfollowsapatternsetbyseveralofhistorysdarkestandmost
bizarredictatorships.

Authoritarianrulersoftenportraythemselvesasthesupremesourceofwisdomfortheirnations.Theybelievethatbydemonstratingtheir
wisdom,theycanvalidatetheirabsolutepower.Formany,writingbooksandrequiringsubordinatestoviewthemassacredtextshas
provenasuccessfulwayofaccomplishingthisgoal.

ItsunlikelythatthenewbookofVladimirPutinsquoteswillbeusedtoprovethatheiskingofouterspaceortojustifygenocide.Butif
historyisareliableindication,thebookcouldprovetobeatoolthathelpshimindoctrinatehiscountrymen,silencehisopposition,and
tightenhisgriponpower.

OnJan23,2016,at6:40AM,"nestory@juno.com"<nestory@juno.com>wrote:

SNOWSTORM?

DO WE WISH IT WAS NO STORM?

AH, TO BE A KID AGAIN!

SNOW STORMS WERE THE COOLEST!

WE COULD WALK DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH IMPUNITY


BECAUSE THE CARS WERE ALL SNOWED IN AND THE SNOWPLOWS
HADN'T GOTTEN OUT YET TO RUIN EVERYTHING AND TURN THE
SNOW INTO SLUSH --

WE WERE IN ANOTHER WORLD -- PRISTINE WHITE WORLD -- A


SILENT WORLD -- BUT NOT FOR LONG -- SNOWBALLS FLYING
THROUGH THE AIR -- LET'S GO TO DEAD MAN'S HILL WITH OUR SLEDS
-- (ROSEBUD?) -- NOT WALKING -- TRUDGING -- WE DIDN'T FEAR
SNOW -- WE WELCOMED IT!
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:DrD<drdenny324@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jan23,2016at7:24AM
Subject:Re:SNOWSTORM-2016
To:"nestory@juno.com"<nestory@juno.com>
Cc:ahryhorowych@gmail.com,LoneTJ13@aol.com,23MORE

Darnright!Wewaitedforthesnow....Andhereisalookoutmybackdoorasofnow....

+++

SentfrommyiPad

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/19/201601:43:33PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere![MUST
Subject: SEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EU
...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,January19,20161:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restillthere!
[MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA[MUST
LISTEN]..........[WD]EU...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at4:29PM
Subject:[ZJORDANOM][DIGESTOFDIGESTS][JD1-19-16]Fwd:RussianTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there![MUSTSEE]......[FromODDD]AndersA:7KeyReformsforUAin2016[MUSTREAD]...SteveBlInterviewonVOA
[MUSTLISTEN]..........[WD]EUDEZINFORMREVIEW11[MUSTNOTE].....ANDABELATEDFPOvernightBrieffor1-
19-16[MaterialRelevanttoUA&Region]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at11:48AM
Subject:WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there!(seelengthyVIDEO)
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

WonderingaboutthefateofthecampoftheRussianlong-haulTRUCKERSoutsideofMoscow--they'restill
there!(seelengthyVIDEO)

URL:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/tv/topics/71484.html?print=1

Aspunishmenttheauthoritieshavebeendumpingallthesnowfromsurroundingdistrictsnexttothe
campfurtherisolatingtheprotesters(shownonvideo).

And:InRussiaSOCIALPROTESTShavebegunanew,http://echo.msk.ru/news/1696504-echo.html

InspiredbythesuccessfulprotestactionofPENSIONERSinKrasnodarandSochi,studentsin
NOVGORODarethreateningamajorstrikeovertheremovalordownsizingoftheirtransportation
benefits.

And:ForthedeclarationoftheNovgorodstudents,signedby1052supporters,see:Studencheskii
proezdnoivernut!VELIKIINOVGOROD,http://www.change.org/

And:StudentsinGreatNovgorodhavethreatenedtogooutontothestreets,
http://tvrain.ru/news/proezd-401936/

And:Russianoligarchs[Abramovich,Usmanov,Potaninandothers]lose$11bninjusttendaysduring
oilpricecrash,telegraph.co.uk,1/18

And:InU.S.money-launderingcase,shadesofRussianCORRUPTION,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27494612.html

And:OnconditionsintheLUHANSKbasements(controlledbytheseparatists)whereUkrainian
prisonersofwarhavebeentormentedanddied:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/71465.html?print=1

And:The[Russian]CommissionontheDefenseofStateSecretshasdeclinedtomakepublicthe
archivesoftheKGB,http://grani.ru/Politics/FSB/m.247829.html

Thearchivesofthesecretpolicefor1917-1991willbepreservedinsecret.Thesedocumentsconcerning
theworkofthechekistyremainactual.

And:DutchMPssuspectRUSSIANTRACEinreferendumonAssociationwithUkraine,unian.info,
1/19

And:StateDumaSpeaker[NARYSHKIN]suggestsEUsanctionKievoverMinskviolations,
themsocowtimes.com,1/19

And:HillaryCLINTON:newRESETpossibleinU.S.-Russianrelationship,themoscowtimes.com,
1/19

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at10:00AM
Subject:Ukraine:USEKyivACKPNYTWoE[ANDERSASLUND"MUSTREAD':7KeyReformsforUAin2016]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

AtlanticCouncil

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/seven-key-reforms-for-ukraine-in-2016

JANUARY18,2016

SevenKeyReformsforUkrainein2016

BYANDERSSLUND

AfterOrthodoxChristmas,IspentafewdaysinKyiv.Itisquitestrikinghowthemoodhaschangedinapositivedirection.The
2016budgetandthemodifiedtaxcodewereadoptedonDecember24.Aftertwoweeksofwell-deservedrest,thereisasudden
realizationthatUkraineaccomplishedmanyimportanteconomicreformsin2015.Admittedly,manyUkrainiansrepeatthemantra
thatnoreformshavetakenplace,butthatisnottrue.Hundredsofsensiblereformlawshavebeenadoptedandtheirbreadthis
impressive.

Energyreformhasgreatlyreducedpricediscrepanciesandlimitedtheopportunitiesforcorruptarbitragebetweenstate-controlled
andfreeprices,whilesharplyreducingstatesubsidies.Thebudgethasbeenbroughtclosetobalance,andmajorinternational
financingtogetherwithdebtrestructuringwasaccomplished.Taxreformhasbeenadopted.Thebankingsystemisbeingcleaned
upasmorethanone-thirdofthebankshavebeenclosed.Afterasubstantialdevaluation,theexchangeratehasstabilizedand
internationalcurrencyreserveshaveincreasedconsiderably.Electronicprocurementhasbeenwidelyintroduced.Some
deregulationhasoccurred.

YetUkrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.The
countryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.
Nevertheless,thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbe
in2016.

1.Themainpriorityisreformoftheprosecutionandcourts.Ukraineadoptedalawonprosecution,butProsecutorGeneralViktor
Shokinmanagedtotakecontrolofthereformprocess,minimizingthechange.Shokinhastogoandthereformoftheprosecution
needstostartanewundernewleadership.Similarly,thecountry's10,000judgesneedtobelustratedandnewjudgesappointedin
areformedcourtsystem.
2.Muchwasaccomplishedinenergyreformin2015,andin2016itshouldbecompleted.Gasandelectricitypricesshouldbe
unifiedatamarketlevelandsetunderthecontrolofanindependentregulatorfromApril1andagasandelectricitymarketshould
finallybeallowedtodevelop.Taxationofindependentoilandgasproducersmustbemadereasonable,andtheirregulationshould
besimplified.Socialsubsidiesaregiventothepoorestthirdofthepopulation,butnofurthersubsidiesshouldbegiventoenergy
companies.

3.Ukraine's1,833state-ownedcompaniesareadenofcorruption.Thevastmajority,1,600,areoflittlevaluejustextracting
subsidiesfromthestate.Theyshouldbesoldoffataregionallevelandthepaymentsgiventotheregionalgovernmentstomotivate
themtoafasterselloff.Thetop100stateenterprises,mainlyinenergyandtransportation,haverealvalueandtheirprivatization
shouldbeopentoforeignbidderswheneverpossible.Thesesalesmustbetransparentandcompetitiveaimingbothathighprices
andsoundrestructuring.About120armamentcompaniesbelongtoUkroboronpromandneedtobeconsideredaseparate
nationalsecuritymatter.Forsuchreasons,Russianentitiesneedtobeblockedfromparticipationinprivatizationandforeignentities
shouldhavetransparentultimatebeneficiaries.

4.Ukrainerequiresprofoundcivilservicereform,whichhasbeenlegislatedandwillcomeintoforceinthespring.Itisvitalthatitis
properlyimplemented.Salariesofcivilservantsmustberaisedsothattheycanliveontheirsalaries.Acleardivisionneedstobe
madebetweenpoliticalandcivilserviceappointments.Entryintothecivilserviceshouldtakeplacethroughcompetitiveexams.
Promotionsshouldbebasedonmerit,notseniority.Standardrulesagainstconflictsofinterestshouldbeintroduced.TheEuropean
UnionhasofferedsubstantialfinancialandtechnicalsupportandthisissomethingthatEUcountriesdowell.

Thevastadministrationofthecabinetofministersof700peoplethattraditionallyhasduplicatedandhamperedtheworkofthe
ministriesshouldbedismantledandreplacedwithalimitedapparatusforcoordination.Thesystemofrequiringtwentytothirty
signaturesoneachmajordecisionmustend,andministriesshouldobtainrealresponsibility.

5.Thebudgetdeficithasbeenbroughtundercontrolandthemostcorruptexpenditureshavebeeneliminated,butUkraineneeds
toreformthebudgetprocesstomakeitfullytransparent.ThisrequirestechnicalassistancefromaWesterncountrywithawell-
functioningbudgetsystemtorenderpublicexpendituresefficient.

6.Ukrainecarriedoutsomederegulationin2015,butfartoolittle.Manyinspectionagenciespersistandshouldbeclosed.
UkrainecouldrisesharplyontheWorldBank'sEaseofDoingBusinessIndex,ifitcarriedoutpossiblederegulation.

7.FormerMinisterofEducationDmytroTabachnikcausedchaosintheschoolsystem2010-13.Ukraineneedstoestablish
elementaryorderintheschoolorganizationandcurriculum.Polandoffersagoodexamplethatcouldbecopied.Thiswouldnot
costmuch,butitisamatterofgettingtheproperadministrationintoplace.

Manyotherissuesarealsoimportant,notablyimprovementofthehealthcaresystem,butsuchreformrequiresmoretime.Thetop
sixprioritiesaboveareallfocusedonreducingcorruption.Schoolreformiscomparativelyeasyandcanbedonewithinayear.

Ukrainehasreformedmuchin2015,butthegovernmentneedstokeepupthemomentumtoattainsoundeconomicgrowth.

AndersslundisaseniorfellowattheAtlanticCouncilandauthorof"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt."
----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at1:55PM
Subject:Fwd:thanks![ED:AnVerySubstantiveSteveBInterviewonVOA]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,herpirch@aol.com

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:TetianaKharchenko<tkharchenko@voanews.com>
To:StephenBlank<traininblank@aol.com>
Sent:Tue,Jan19,20161:55pm
Subject:thanks!

HiStephen,

ThankyouagainforcomingtoourTVshow.HereisthelinkforthatinterviewwhichBohdanhasconductedwithyou.

http://ukrainian.voanews.com/content/stiven-blank-on-minsk/3148962.html

andfortheshow:

http://ukrainian.voanews.com/media/video/tv-programs-chastime/3147829.html?z=1684&zp=1

Best,

Tania.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at12:14PM
Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven[EastStratComTaskForce]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

From:EastStratComTaskForce[mailto:stratcom-east=eeas.europa.eu@mail150.suw14.mcdlv.net]OnBehalfOfEastStratComTask

Force

Sent:January19,201611:07AM

To:=?utf-8?Q??=

Subject:DisinformationReview:IssueEleven

New#DisinfoReviewfromtheEEASEastStratComTaskForce Viewthisemailinyour
browser

DisinformationReview:IssueEleven
Dearcolleagues,

Thankyouverymuchforallyourreports.Wearealwayshappytoseenew
languageshere-thistimeItalian.Incaseyouknowaboutsomepeopleor
organisationswhocouldhelpuscovercountriesandlanguagesstillnotpresentin
ourReview,wewillbehappyifyouletusknow.

Asthisweekstrendwechosethedisinformation
targetedatGermany

Pro-KremlinmediausethenewsaboutsexualattacksduringNewYearsEveto
supportoneoftheirmostrepeatednarratives-showingthedecayoftheWestand
theproblemsfacedbyaEuropeanleader.

Alreadylastweek,wesawdisinformationaboutGermanpoliceandAngela
Merkelallegedlynotreactingtotheincident(http://eepurl.com/bMAv5P).This
week,youwillseestoriesabouttheseattacksbeingstagedbysecretservices,eg
theCIAortheirMuslimalliesandpayingtheactorswithheroinboughtfor
taxpayersmoney.OneofRussiasmainnewsprogrammes,"Vesticomparedthe
incidenttotheinfamousNightofLongKnives,orKristallnacht
(http://bit.ly/1QfuCZE).Aeronet.ctreportedthatifyouinsultrefugeesonGerman
FacebookorTwitter,youmightgotojail,whichisalongpreparedplantoban
freedomofspeechandtheNewYearsEveincidentsareonlyanexcuseforthat
(http://bit.ly/1OYZQDk).

Duringtheweekend,thepro-Kremlinmediacamewithastoryclaimingthata
RussiangirlhadbeenrapedinBerlinbymigrants.Inthetable,youwillseemany
linkstothisstoryinallthemostpopularRussianmedia.AlthoughBerlinpolice
deniedthisinformation(http://bit.ly/1Q8DMW4),manyofthestoriesremained
unchanged.

FurtherdisinformationaboutGermanauthoritieswasreportedbyCzechpro-
Kremlinoutlets.Inthetable,youwillseeacoupleofthemclaimingthatthe
GermangovernmentbuysCzechprostitutestosatisfytherefugees.These
prostitutesthenspreadtherefugeessexualdiseasesamongtheCzech
population,whichmight,itisclaimed,bearevengefortheCzechgovernment's
unwillingnesstoacceptrefugeesbytheGermangovernmentandAngelaMerkel.

Lastweek,weshowedhowpro-Kremlinmediainventstorieswrittenbywell-
knownWesternmediatomaketheirreportingmorecredible.Allofthestories
werefaked.Thisweek,wesawasimilarpattern-manystoriesinpro-Kremlin
outletsclaimedthatWesternmediapresageacatastropheforthewholeWest
afteranotheringeniousmovebyVladimirPutin,intendedtocounterthe
sanctionsagainsthiscountry.Infact,theseWesternmediaamountedtoone
articleonabloggingsite.Thestop-fakingsiteNoodleremoverreportsonthis
particularcasemorethoroughly(http://bit.ly/1niqi0M).

Here,weseeadifferentpattern-insteadofmakingproofsup,pro-Kremlinsites
pickanexistingelement,andpervertitintosomethingitisnot.Theverysame
happenedtoaphotographthatallegedlydepictedUkrainiannazis.Infact,there
wereRussianultranationalistsportrayedinthepicture(http://bit.ly/1StZoiM).

ThefalsenarrativeaboutnazisgoverningUkraineisrepeatedoneveryoccasion.
Thus,eventheUkrainianschoolreformsaimisinfactjustaplanhowtoturn
Ukrainianchildrentonazis.Thispieceofinvestigationwasreported
bynovorus.info:http://bit.ly/1V54xvH,andthanspreadbyCzechpro-Kremlin
outlets.

Thisweek,pro-KremlinoutletsalsoclaimthattheAmericansecretservice
managednotonlytostagetheCologneattacks(seeabove),butalsotohelpthe
BulgarianPrimeMinistertogetdrugsinLibyaandweaponstoISIS
(http://bit.ly/1TAAonG).In2009,theCIAalsokilledMichaelJackson
(http://bit.ly/1RONPDe).

Manythankstoallourcontributorsagain,andwearealwayslookingfornewones.

DOWNLOADDISINFORMATIONREVIEWISSUEELEVEN

Forcontributions,pleasee-mailjakub.kalensky@eeas.europa.eu

Whenyouadvertisethisproduct,pleaseusethislinkforautomatedsubscriptions.

Thankyouverymuchonceagain,andwearelookingforwardtoyournewreports,

EastStratCom
FollowusonTwitter@EUvsDisinfo

TheDisinformationReviewisacompilationofreportsreceivedfrommembersofthe
mythbustingnetwork.Themythbustingnetworkcomprisesofover450experts,
journalists,officials,NGOsandThinkTanksinover30countries.Pleasenotethat
opinionsandjudgementsexpressedheredonotrepresentofficialEUpositions.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicyInitiative<info@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Tue,Jan19,2016at8:47AM
Subject:FPIOvernightBrief:January19,2016
To:Wolodymyr<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

FollowandSupportFPI

FPIOvernightBrief
January19,2016

TableofContents
MiddleEast/NorthAfrica,Asia,Security,Russia/Europe,Americas,Africa,ObamaAdministration,Events

Announcements TheMust-Reads
BesuretoencourageyourcolleaguestosignupfortheFPI NYT:US-Iranprisonerswappitscompassionagainstcosts
OvernightBrief.
BretStephens:NormalizingIran
Ifyousupportourmissionandwork,pleaseconsidermaking
SyriahurdleloomsafterUS-Irandeals
atax-deductibledonationtoFPItoday.
CarterseeksmorehelpagainstISISinParistrip
ISWispublishingregularupdatesonthesituationinIraqand
Syria,andAEI'sCriticalThreatsProjectisdoingsofor Formerwarplanners:ObamatoocautiousinbombingISIS
theYemenconflict.
DavidIgnatius:DefeatingISISwilltakedecades

WSJeditorial:AterrorstateinLibya

Gilinsky,Sokolski:TheotherdangersfromtheN.Korean
nuketest

WSJ+WaPoeditorialsandCohenonChineserepression

AsearchforanswersinKara-Murzasmysteriousillness

MiddleEast/NorthAfrica

Iran

Withinternationalsanctionslifted,theIraniangovernmentcalledonitsoilindustryMondaytoopenthetapsonproduction,amovethatcould
addtoaglobalglutofcrudethathassentpricesintoatailspin.NewYorkTimes

LiterallyhoursaftertheinkhaddriedontheaccordliftinginternationaleconomicsanctionsonIran,big-namecompaniesacrossEuropeandAsia
weresigningdeals,majorworldleaderswerebookingtrademissionstoTehran,idledoilfieldswerebeingorderedbackonline,andIran'sfinancial
authoritieshadprocessedapplicationsforsome1,000lettersofcreditfrombusinesseshopingtocutdealsinthenearfuture.WashingtonTimes

TheglowofgoodwillthatfollowedasurpriseprisonerswapandtheliftingofinternationalsanctionsonIran'snuclearprogramovertheweekend
isalreadybeingtemperedbythesomberrealizationthattheIslamicRepublicisnotlikelytochangecoursesignificantlyonotherpressing
conflictswiththeWest.LosAngelesTimes

ThedramaticreleaseoffiveAmericansimprisonedinIranovertheweekendhighlightedanunprecedentedlevelofdiplomaticcooperation
betweentwocountriesthathavelongbeenatodds,raisingthetantalizingpossibilityofaneweraofU.S.-Irandtente.ForeignPolicy

TwoIranianpoetswhofacelashingsandprisonsentenceshavefledIran,oneofthewriterssaidMonday,arareescapeforlocalartistsand
activistsensnaredinanongoingcrackdownonexpressioninthecountry.AssociatedPress

BretStephenswrites:IranwillbecomeanormalcountryonlywhenitceasestobeanIslamicRepublic.Inthemeantime,theonlyquestionis
howfarwearepreparedtoabaseourselvesinourquesttonormalizeit.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SimonChinandValerieLincywrite:Inthefirstroundofsanctionsrelief,theEuropeanUnion,UnitedStates,andUnitedNationsliftedthebulkof
itsnuclear-relatedsanctionsagainstIran,includingmostoftherestrictionsthathadbeenimposedagainstIransfinancial,transport,andenergy
sectors.(U.S.partieswillstillbeprohibitedfromdoingbusinesswithIranianentitiesbecauseoftheembargo.)IranWatch

FredFleitzwrites:HowdidIranreachthenucleardealsImplementationDay?BecausetheObamaadministrationriggedthegamebysettingthe
barsolowthatIraniancompliancewasassuredThatswhatledtoadisastrousagreementthatwillmaydoenormousdamagetointernational
securityfordecadestocome.FoxNews

Syria

TheprisonerexchangebetweentheU.S.andIran,coincidingwiththecompletionofthenucleardeal,markedmilestonesinPresidentBarack
Obamaspolicyofengagement,butonesthatwillbedifficulttorepeatasheturnstothenextchallenge:resolvingtheconflictinSyria.Wall
StreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Barelyamonthaftertheworldsmostpowerfulcountriesagreedtoanambitiousroadmaptoendthefive-year-oldwarinSyria,thereisstillno
agreementonwho,ifanyone,willshowupatthepeacetalksthataresupposedtobegininGenevanextMonday.NewYorkTimes

IntheMiddleEast,whereRussiahasengagedinitsownoperationsagainstIslamicStateinSyria,RussiaandtheU.S.,whichisleadingacoalition
againsttheIslamicStateinIraqandSyria,orISIS,alsoknownasISIL,aremakingeveryeffortnottocrosspathsintheskies,Gorencsaid.DOD
Buzz

TheSyrianObservatoryforHumanRightsgroupsaidscoresofSyriangovernmentforceshavebeenkilledinthreedaysoffightingwithIslamic
Stateintheeastofthecountry,wherethejihadistgrouphasattackedgovernment-heldareas.-Reuters

Syrianpeacetalksduenextweekarelookingincreasinglymootasastringofrecentbattlefieldvictoriesbygovernmenttroopshavebolstered
PresidentBasharAssad'shandandplungedtherebelsintodisarray.AssociatedPress

AthirdroundofaidwasdeliveredtobesiegedSyriantownsonMonday,althougharmedgroupspostponedonehumanitarianteam'saccess
sayingtheyneededmoretimetomakesecurityarrangements,theUnitedNationssaidinajointstatement.-Reuters

DaveedGartenstein-RossandNathanielBarrwrite:AlmosteveryaspectoftheObamaadministrationspolicytowardSyriahasbeenscrutinized,
lambastedorpraisedinrecentmonths,butoneofthemostsignificantfacets,theCIAscovertaidprogramtoSyrianrebels,haslargelyslipped
belowtheradar.Itistimethatwestartpayingattention,sincethisinitiativeisbenefitingtheveryjihadistgroupstheU.S.hasbeenfightingforthe
past15years.TheDailyBeast

Iraq

ThreeAmericanswhohavebeenmissinginIraqsinceFridaywereprobablykidnappedfromaBaghdadapartment,accordingtosecurityofficials
andlocalnewsreports.TheapartmentmayhavebeenthehomeofanIraqicolleaguewhoisalsobelievedtohavebeenabducted,theofficialsand
reportssaid.NewYorkTimes

AwaveofattacksagainstciviliansbytheIslamicStateandrivalShiitemilitiasinavolatileIraqiprovincehasraisedfearsaboutthepotentialfor
deadlysectarianviolence,eveninareaswheretheextremistmilitantswereofficiallydeclarederadicated.WashingtonPost

Atleast18,802civilianswerekilledandanother36,245werewoundedinIraqbetweenthestartof2014andOct.31oflastyearasIraqiforces
battledtheIslamicStategroup,accordingtoaU.N.reportreleasedTuesday.AssociatedPress

BaghdadandWashingtonhavetoutedRamadiasthefirstmajorsuccessforIraq'sU.S.-backedarmysinceitcollapsedinthefaceofIslamicState's
lightningadvanceacrossthecountry'snorthandwestinmid-2014.Butthescorched-earthbattlefieldtacticsusedbybothsidesmeantheprizeis
ashatteredruin.-Reuters

[C]learingthecityfrommilitantsandexplosivescouldtakeweeks.Andthediscoveryofmoreciviliansthanexpectedtrappedamongtheruins,
afterwhatthesurvivorssaywasadeliberateeffortbyfighterstousethemasshields,suggestsfuturebattlesagainstIslamicStatecouldbemore
complicated.-Reuters

KimberlyDozierreports:ThreeAmericancontractorswentmissinginBaghdadlateThursday,afterleavingtheheavilyfortifiedIraqimilitarybase
withouttheirsecuritydetail,armedonlywithpistols,accordingtoacontractorwithfirsthandknowledgeoftheincident.TheDailyBeast

Turkey

ATurkishsecurityforcecampaignagainstKurdishmilitantsinthesoutheasthasbeenlargelycompleted,PrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluwas
reportedassayingonTuesday,asheoutlinedplanstomaintaintightercontrolinpartsoftheregion.-Reuters

LawyersforTurkishPresidentTayyipErdoganfiledalawsuitagainstthemainoppositionleaderonMondayforimplyingthatErdoganwasa
dictator,presidentialsourcesandtheoppositionpartysaid.-Reuters

ReturntoTop

Asia
CentralAsia

TheUzbekgovernment,lobbiedbyrightsgroupsandpressuredquietlybytheUnitedStatestofreeahigh-profilepoliticalprisoner,hasfinally
revealedasecret:Hediedfiveyearsago.NewYorkTimes

LackofagreementonwhowouldcontrolaseparateIndianSpecialForcesCommand(SFC)hasstymiedcreationoftheunitdespitethemilitary's
urgentdesireforone.MilitaryTimes

China

Chinasgrowthslowedfurtherlastyear,addingtothetroublingeconomicpicturethatisunsettlinginvestorsaroundtheworld.NewYorkTimes

WhenChinasgovernmentreportsTuesdayontheeconomysperformancelastyear,onecentralquestionwillhavealreadybeenanswered:
Growthslowedtoitsmostanemicpaceinaquartercentury.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Traditionally,collegesconducton-campusinterviewsorenlistalumnitohelp.ButwiththesurgeinapplicationsfromChina,collegesareunableto
keepupwiththevolumeofinterviewrequests.Tosiftthroughthefloodofapplicants,moreAmericaninstitutionshavesoughtthird-party
interviewswithprospectivestudents.NewYorkTimes

WheneverChinaseconomyshowssignsoffaltering,Beijingtypicallymovestostimulategrowthbyboostingspendingoninfrastructureand
thatnormallygivesthingsakickstart.Thistimearound,however,policymakershadresortedtothesamestrategyonlytofindthemselvesfacing
unusualheadwinds,asevidencedbyTuesdaysnewsthatChinaposteditsslowestgrowthinaquartercenturyin2015.WSJsChinaRealTime

ChinasgovernmenthaslaunchedanonlinedatabaseofTibetanlivingBuddhasaspartofwhatcriticsviewasabroaderstruggletocontrolthe
legacyoftheexiledDalaiLama.FinancialTimes

Chineseauthoritieswillprosecutetwoformerseniorofficials,includingaone-timevicemayorofShanghai,forcorruption,afterprobesfoundthey
abusedtheirpowerandtookbribes,therulingCommunistParty'santi-graftwatchdogsaidonTuesday.-Reuters

HongKong

GuiMinhai,theowneroftheHongKongpublisherMightyCurrentwhohasbeenmissingsinceOctober,appearedonChinesestatetelevisionlast
night(Jan.17)andmadeatearfulconfessionhehadkilleda20-year-oldcollegestudentwhiledrunkdrivinginNingbo,acityinsoutheastern
Zhejiangprovince,inDecemberof2003.Guisfriendsandfamilyhavetheirdoubts,andsayhisconfessionlooksscriptedandtheystillbelievehe
wasabducted.-Quartz

HongKongpolicehaveconfirmedthatanotherofagroupoffivemissingbooksellerswhosoldworkscriticalofBeijingisinmainlandChina,justa
dayafterhiscolleaguewasparadedonChinesestateTVconfessingtoa12-year-olddrink-drivingoffenceFinancialTimes

ASwedishbooksellerwhosemysteriousdisappearancesparkedfearshemayhavebeenabductedbyChineseagentssaidhehadvoluntarily
turnedhimselfintotheauthoritiesoverafataldrink-drivingoffensemorethanadecadeago.-Reuters

OneofHongKong'sstaunchestpro-Beijinglawmakerssaidabookseller'stearfulconfessiononstatetelevisiontoahit-and-runaccidentmore
thanadecadeagoinChinaisunlikelytoappeasepublicconcernsthathemayhavebeenabducted.-Reuters

Editorial:Thechargeagainstthelawyers,subvertingstatepower,isabsurd.Thelawyersweresimplyadvisingclientshowtodefendthemselves
underChinaslawstheirintentionswerepragmaticandrelativelymodest.Butitisnowcleartheytouchedaverysensitivenerve,andChinas
rulersreactedharshly.Thegrayzoneisbeingturnedintoatwilightzoneoffear,amessagetoanyonethattheycanbetakenawayinthemiddleof
thenight.WashingtonPost

Editorial:Whenreportsofthemissingbooksellerssurfaced,somespeculatedthatrogueChineseagentscouldhavemountedasnatch-and-grab
campaignwithoutapprovalfromhigher-upsinBeijing.Mr.Guistelevisedconfessionsuggestsofficialknowledgeandcomplicity.Thecases
representanescalationofChinasassaultsonjournalism,theautonomyofHongKongandtherightsofoverseasChinesewhoarecitizensof
othersovereignnations.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

JeromeCohenwrites:IfthecurrentChinesepresidentweretohonorhisfatherspolicy,Chinasprospectsfortransitioningfromdictatorshipto
democracywouldbebrighter.SotoowouldbethefutureofChinaspubliclawyers.Ihopethattheywillcontinuethestruggle,evenwithonearm
tiedbehindthem.Itwouldbetragic,forbothlawyersandChinesesociety,iftheyweretobecomemeretechnicalpractitioners.WallStreet
Journal(subscriptionrequired)

Taiwan

NodogmaismoreimportanttoBeijingthanOneChina,theconceptthatTaiwanisapartofasingleChinesenationjusttemporarilyestranged.
Americaandmuchoftherestoftheworldacquiescetothatposition,denyingtherealitythatTaiwanhassetitscourseasanindependentstate.
Lastweekendsvote,inwhichtheTaiwaneseelectorateoverwhelmingendorsedapartythatrejectsBeijingsOneChinaformula,confirmedthe
directioninthemostemphaticwaytodate.ThatnotonlyputsChinainabind,buttheU.S.too.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

TheelectionofTsaiIng-wenaspresidentofTaiwanwasmetinChinaonMondaywithsparseandlargelycriticalcomment,suggestingbothalack
ofinteresttowardacandidatewhosepartysnativistleaningsmanyordinaryChinesedonotunderstandandcensorshipinthenewsmediaand
onlineforumsaboutanoutcomethattheCommunistPartyhadnotwishedtosee.NewYorkTimes

PatrickCroninandPhoebeBenichwrite:ThesewindsofchangeoriginatinginTaiwanarealsocertaintobuffetthenextU.S.president.Since
normalizingrelationswithChinaandthepassageoftheTaiwanRelationsActin1979,repeatedadministrationshavemaintainedahighdegreeof
ambiguityregardingsupportforTaiwan.AreenergizedTaiwaneseelectoratewilltestthelongevityofAmericascurrentstrategicambiguityabout
theactualextentofitscommitmenttoTaiwanForeignPolicy

NorthKorea

[E]venasnewsanctionsloom,NorthKoreasbiggesttesttodatehasthrownintostarkreliefthefailureofexistingonestohaltitsnuclear
progressandwithChinastillunwillingtocastitstreatyallyintoeconomicruin,analystsseelittlehopethatthenextroundofmeasureswill
achievethatgoal.FinancialTimes

NorthKoreanleaderKimJongUn'srecentnuclearweapontestwasdesignedtoboosthisdomesticlegitimacyaheadofararerulingparty
conferenceinMaythatcouldformalizemarket-basedeconomicexperimentsintheisolatedcountry,analystssay.-Reuters

VictorGilinskyandHenrySokolskiwrite:ThefirstthingtosayaboutNorthKoreasJan.6nucleartestisthat,despitethepronouncementsof
instantexperts,weknowalmostnothingaboutitstechnicalcharacteristics.Eventherelationoftheseismicsignaltotheactualsizeofthe
explosionisuncertain.Buttherearesomehintsaboutthetestssignificanceforproliferationthatthepress,initseagernesstodismissNorth
Koreasclaimthatitdetonatedahydrogenweapon,seemstohavemissed.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

SoutheastAsia

Theoutcomeofthesecongressesisusuallysettledmonthsinadvance,butaprotractedspatbetweenfactionsloyaltoMr.DungandMr.Trong
hasresultedinlast-minutemaneuvering.WhoevercomesoutontopcoulddeterminethefutureofVietnamscarefullycalibratedstrategicbalance
betweenChina,itsideologicalallyandmaintradingpartner,andtheUnitedStates,whichthepartyeliteincreasinglyconsidersanimportant
counterweightagainstgrowingChineseinfluenceintheregion.NewYorkTimes

ElectionbattlesinthePhilippinesarentjustfoughtoverwhogetsthemostvotes,butalsowhogetstoparticipate,withoneoftheleading
candidatesforthisyearspresidentialrace,GracePoe,waitingfortheSupremeCourttodecidewhethersheiseligibletoleadthecountry.Wall
StreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

MyanmararmychiefMinAungHlaingnominatedmilitaryofficers,whoholdaquarterofseatsinparliament,totheirposts,statemediasaidon
Tuesday,anotherstepbythearmyinwhathassofarsurprisedmanyasaremarkablypeacefultransition.-Reuters

ChinaaccusedthePhilippinesonTuesdayofdeliberatelytryingtoscarepeoplebysayingChinahadwarnedasmallcivilianplanecarrying
PhilippineofficialsitwastrespassingastheyinspectedanislandinthedisputedSouthChinaSea.-Reuters

Australia

PresidentBarackObamaiswelcominghisfirstforeignleaderofthenewyear,AustralianPrimeMinisterMalcolmTurnbull,fortalksthatwillcover
theIslamicStatemilitantgroupanda12-nationPacificRimtradeagreementthatincludestheircountries.AssociatedPress

ReturntoTop

Security

Cybersecurity

Cyberattackswagedagainstthenation'scriticalmanufacturingsectornearlydoubledinfiscalyear2015,governmentexpertssaidinanewreport.
WashingtonTimes

ReturntoTop

Russia/Europe
Ukraine

WhenafriendinKyivcalledIsraeli-AmericanfilmmakerEvgenyAfineevskyinNovember2013andconvincedhimtodropeverythingandtakehis
camerastoUkrainebecause"somethingwashappening"there,hehadnoideawhathewasgettinghimselfinto,letalonethatitwouldleadtoan
Oscarnomination.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheEuropeanUnionpressedUkraineauthoritiesonMondaytoovercomepoliticalfeudingandimplementpromisedreformsasitlookstoshore
upthecountry'sdemocraticandeconomiccredentials.-Reuters

AndersAslundwrites:Ukrainiansarerighttocomplain.Outputhasslumped,whilepriceshaveskyrocketedastheexchangeratehasplummeted.
Thecountryismuchpoorer.Thedominantconcernsarethatcorruptionhasnotdiminishedandpublicserviceshavenotimproved.Nevertheless,
thepreviousachievementslistedaboveindicatewhatremainstobedoneandwhatthecountry'sprioritiesshouldbein2016.AtlanticCouncil

Russia

Kara-MurzaalsobelieveshispoisoningmayhavebeenanactofrevengeforhislobbyingforU.S.sanctionsagainstRussianofficialsunderthe
MagnitskyAct,namedforSergeiMagnitsky,awhistleblowingRussianlawyerwhodiedinaMoscowjailin2009afteraccusingofficialsoflarge-
scalefraud.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

TheRussianStateDumaCommitteeonConstitutionalLegislationandState-Buildinghasdeclinedtoendorseacontroversialdraftbillthatwould
introducefinesandarrestsforpeoplewhopubliclyexpresstheirhomosexuality.RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

Russiasrublecurrency,batteredbyfallingglobaloilprices,hasdroppedtoitslowestvalueoncurrencyexchangemarketsinmorethanayear.
RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty

France

ThegroupsformationunderscoreshowtheU.S.andFrenchhaveexpandedtheirrelationshipastheU.S.-ledcoalitionagainsttheIslamicState
preparesforanexpansionofthewar.OnTuesday,Carterwillembarkonamulti-daytriptoEuropethatincludesmeetingsinPariswithdefense
ministersfromthecountriesprovidingsomeofthemostsignificantcontributionstothemilitarycampaign:France,Australia,Germany,Italy,the
NetherlandsandBritainWashingtonPostsCheckpoint

MorethanayearaftertheterrorattacksonCharlieHebdoandaPariskoshersupermarket,thevictimsrelativesarestilldemandinganswerson
whetherorhowFrancesgovernmentandsecurityforcesfailed.-Politico

Germany

JosefJoffewrites:Youcanthaveopenbordersandamunificentwelfarestate.Somethinghastogive.SinceevenMightyMerkelcannotoverturn
ancientdispensations,shewillinevitablyslipintoNo,wecantandcloseborders,astheSwedesandDaneshavedone.High-mindedness
stopsattheballotbox.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

JohnVinocurwrites:Thechancellornowfacesasocietythatisgaggingontherealizationthatotherone-timepillarsofnationalprobityhave
crackedfortheworldtoseeDeutscheBankwithits$2.5billionfinebyU.S.regulatorslastyearforraterigging,andVolkswagen,facingmassive
lawsuitsafteracknowledgingitfakeditscarsemission-controlcapabilities.Byitsownstandards,Germanyisreeling.AngelaMerkelnolonger
hasthecountryfullyinhergrasp.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

Europe

TheEuropeanUnionandtheU.S.areracingtomeetadeadlineonanewcommercialdata-sharingaccordtoreplaceonestruckdownbytheEU
lastyearbecauseofconcernsoverAmericansurveillancepractices.WallStreetJournal(subscriptionrequired)

AspresidentoftheEuropeanCouncilthegrouprepresentingtheEuropeanUnionsoften-clashing28leadersDonaldTuskisforever
promotingabalancebetweennationalsovereigntyononehandandcommonvaluesandgoalsontheother.OnMonday,hischallengewas
especiallypersonal.NewYorkTimes

[T]hedozensofmembersoftheBritishParliamentwhospentanextraordinarythreehoursMondaydebatingaboutthefront-runnerforthe
RepublicannominationforU.S.presidentdidnotbanDonaldTrump.WashingtonPost

NATO

PolandwantsNATOtoagreetodeploy'substantial'numbersofforcesandequipmentincentralandeasternEuropetoensuretheregion'ssecurity
inthefaceofamoreaggressiveRussia,PresidentAndrzejDudasaidonMonday.-Reuters

ReturntoTop

Americas
LatinAmerica

Justweeksbeforelawmakerswillconsiderherfate,BrazilianPresidentDilmaRousseffisdesperatelytryingtodemonstratethatsheisstillin
chargeofSouthAmerica'smostpopulousnation.WashingtonTimes

PresidentDilmaRousseff'sopponentswithinhermaincoalitionpartner,thefractiousBrazilianDemocraticMovementParty(PMDB),arelosing
hopethattheycanimpeachtheleftistleaderandreplaceherwiththeirman,VicePresidentMichelTemer.-Reuters

AnagreementtobuildoiltankersinIranforVenezuelahasbeenleftinlimboyearsafteritwasannouncedasWesternsanctionsplus
disagreementsoverpaymentsanddeliverytermstooktheirtoll,sourcesfamiliarwiththemattersay.-Reuters

TobyDershowitzandJosephHumirewrite:Thepost-dealinfluxofinternationalinvestmenttoIranwillsurelychallengeMacriseffortstocurb
Tehransinfluenceathome.Sofar,hehasshownheisuptothistask.ItisimperativethattheU.S.andotherfriendlygovernmentshelpthenew
Argentinepresidentasheseekstorighthiscountrysjudicialintegrity,aneffortforwhichAlbertoNismangavehislifetoprotect.TheHill

ReturntoTop

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robustsupportfordemocraticallies,humanrights,astrongAmericanmilitaryequippedtomeetthechallengesofthe21stcentury,and
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From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 01/18/201601:28:04PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue11

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January18,2016--Volume13,Issue11

INTHISISSUE
*KremlincreatesdubiousopeninginUkrainepeacenegotiations
*whileRussiasgovernmentcracksdownonCircassiansettlersfromTurkey
*ItalybalksatproposedGerman-RussianNordStreamTwogaspipeline

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)

RussiaBargainsandBluffsforBreakthroughinUkraine

Formonths,thevariousnegotiationsformatsonconflictmanagementinUkraineappeared
deadlocked.Butsuddenly,inmid-January2016,signsofabreakthroughinthemakinghave
multipliedbringingbothhopesandconcernstoallthepartiesinvolved.Themostmeaningful
ofthesesignswasUnitedStatesPresidentBarackObamastelephonecalltoRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinlastWednesday(January13),inwhichUkrainewasthestartingtopic
oftheopenandbusiness-likeconversation(Rbc.ru,January13).Thefollow-upcameon
Friday,inthemeetingbetweenAssistantUSSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandandPutins
aideVladislavSurkov,inacozypresidentialresidenceintheKaliningradregion
(Kommersant,January15).Surkovdescribedthesix-hour-longmeetingasabrainstorm.
AndwhilehisofficialstatusislowandthelistofhisrivalsintheKremlinisquitelong,Surkov
isindeedapersonwhocaninventcomplexcompromisesandthensellthemtohisboss.

PutinparticularlywantstobeabletonegotiatethefateofUkrainedirectlywithWashington.
RegardlessofanyconcessionstheKremlinmightbeforcedtomakeasaresultofthesetalks,
suchabilateralformatwouldservetoupliftRussiasinternationalstatusevenif,inarecent
interviewfortheGermantabloidBild,PutindeniedRussianambitionstoregaintherankofa
superpower(MoskovskyKomsomolets,January12).Moscowcertainlykeepsthe
conversationswithBerlinandParisgoingbutexpectsthemonlytoaddvarnishtothedeal
agreedwithWashington.Andbesides,theKremlinassumesthatEuropeissopreoccupied
withitsdomesticdisorderthatithaslittletimeforUkraine(Gazeta.ru,January14).

VladimirPutinknowsthatUkrainesPresidentPetroPoroshenkoisunpopularandbesieged
byanoppositionangryaboutRussianintrigues.Therefore,Putinhasappointedhislong-time
loyalsubordinateBorisGryzlovasRussiasrepresentativeintheContactGroupforUkraine
andsenthimwithamessagetoPresidentPoroshenkoprimarilyinordertoputtheUkrainian
leaderinatightpoliticalcorner(NezavisimayaGazeta,January15).Insodoing,theRussian
headofstateexploitstheContractGroupnegotiatingchanneltopresentUkraineasmiredin
discordanddecline(Polit.ru,January16).

Theneedtoscoreafewtacticalpointscomesfromtheinescapabledomesticimperativefor
RussiatoacceptthefailureofthehybridwaragainstUkraineandtorelinquishcontrolover
theoccupiedenclaveintheDonetskandLuhanskregions.Putinneedstomakethisdealfast,
whileObamacontinuestoconsiderhimaseriousstake-holderintheSyrianwarandkeeps
opentheoptionofliftingsanctionsagainstRussia(Rbc.ru,January16).Thefateofthepuppet
rebelregimesineasternUkrainesDonbasregionapparentlymatterlittletotheKremlin.The
governmentsoftheDonetskandLuhanskpeoplesrepublicsarenotinvitedtooreven
informedabouttheclosed-doornegotiationstheyareonlyusedforbreakingtheceasefirein
ordertoproduceextraurgencyinstrikingadeal(Rosbalt,January16).Abandoningthefailed
projectofNovorossiya,theRussianleadershiphastopretendasuccessofsorts.Sothe
loomingwithdrawalispre-emptivelyeclipsedbybluffs,likeDefenseMinisterSergeiShoigus
promisetodeploythreenewdivisionsinordertocounterthethreatsallegedlycomingfrom
theWest(EzhednevnyZhurnal,January13).

Ayearago,intheheatofthevictoriousbattleoverDebaltseve,Russianconcessionswere
outofthequestion.Butnow,thedisastrousdegradationofitseconomyhascompelledRussia
toreturntothenegotiatingtable.ProfessionaldiscussionsattheGaidarForuminMoscowlast
weekpaintedthepictureofafailureofstatecontrolandanuncheckeddownwardtrend,even
ifmostliberaleconomistsweredeniedthechancetospeak(NovayaGazeta,January14).
PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevtriedtoshifttheblameontheglobalvolatilityandthehostile
actionsofWesternpartners.ButitwasGermanGref,theheadofSberbank,whoproduced
thestrongestresonancewiththeacknowledgementthattheoilagewasovermoreover,he
concludedthatRussiawasaloserinthecompetitionandadownshifterstate(Newsru.com,
January15).Theonlypositivemessagefromthegovernmentministerswasthatnomajor
mistakesweremadesincethearrivaloftherecessioninthelate2014butthatwasprimarily
becausenocoherentanti-crisispolicywasdeveloped(MoscowEcho,January15).

TheKremlinexpectsitshard-givenconcessionsoneasternUkrainetobereciprocatedbythe
Westwithacancelationofthesanctionsregime.However,itisfarfromcertainthata
relaxationofsectoralsanctionswouldrescuetheinvestment-starvedRussianeconomy.The
explorationanddevelopmentofgreenoilandgasfieldsinEasternSiberiaandtheArcticis
hamperednotonlybythelackofaccesstomoderntechnologiesbutalsobythesustained
declineofprices,whichiscertaintocurtailtheinflowofpetro-revenuesforyearstocome
(Slon.ru,January15).PersonalsanctionsthatpreventmanyRussianofficials,includingSurkov
andGryzlov,fromtravelingtotheWest,areunlikelytobelifted,andtheyarereinforcedby
manyrecentinvestigationsintotheexportofRussiancorruption,includingmostrecentlythe
dopingscandalintheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF),inwhich
Putinispersonallyimplicated(Kommersant,January15).TheUkrainianleadershipispushing
hardthecaseoftheannexationofCrimea,whichshouldnotbeforgottenevenifRussia
indeedwithdrawsitstroopsfromtheoccupiedterritoriesineasternUkraine(Rbc.ru,January
14).

ItisstillunclearwhethertheKremlinisindeedreadyforacompleteretreatfromthewar-
devastatedDonbas,whichhasnoeconomicvalueforRussiaandincursheavypolitical,
financialandmilitarycosts.Theideathatmakessuchanabandonmentagreeableisthat
Ukrainewouldhavetobeartheburdenofrebuildingthiswarzoneandwouldalsoreceivea
bouquetofcomplexpoliticalproblemsthatcouldmakeitsunrulypoliticsungovernable.The
RussianpropagandamachinehasalreadyswitchedofftheNovorossiyathemeandfocuses
ontheSyrian/Turkishtopicshowever,thesetopicsareincreasinglyovershadowedin
Russiansmindsbytheeverydayexperienceoffast-risingpoverty.Putincannotdispelthe
specterofdegradationandcannotshowweaknessbyyieldingtotheWesternpressurein
Ukraine.Hisoptionsforcoveringaretreatwithyetanotherspectacularpowerprojection
enterpriseinRussiasmulti-regionalneighborhoodarelimited,andthebenefitsofunleashinga
waveofrepressionsagainstdomesticenemiesofthepeoplearedubious.Hebothneedsa
confrontationwiththeWestandcannotafforditbutRussiasneighborsshouldnotcounton
himbeingparalyzedintoinactionbytheseself-madetraps.

--PavelK.Baev

CircassianActivistsProtestDeportationofCircassiansWithTurkishCitizenship

TheRussiangovernmenthasstartedtargetingCircassiansfromTurkeywhohavesettledinthe
NorthCaucasus,angeringlocalCircassians.Eventhewell-knownRussianloyalistAsker
Sokht,aCircassianactivistfromKrasnodarregion,raisedthealarm,sayingthatCircassian
settlersfromTurkeyinKabardino-BalkariahavestartedreceivinglettersfromtheRussian
FederalMigrationServiceofficiallyannullingtheirlegalresidenceintheRussianFederation.
SokhtcalledtheseattemptsanothermassdeportationofCircassiansfromtheirhistorical
homeland.Headdedthatundermade-uppretextandtakingadvantageofthetense
Russian-Turkishrelations,[someforces]aremakinganattempttodeportenmasseCircassian
compatriotswhohaveforyearslivedinRussiabacktoTurkey.Sokhtcalledonthe
republicanauthoritiesinKabardino-BalkariaandthefederalauthoritiesinMoscowtostopthe
campaignofdeportations(Yuga.ru,January14),asifthecampaignwasstartedbysomeone
otherthantheauthoritiesthemselves.

Russian-TurkishrelationssouredlastNovemberafterTurkeydownedaRussianwarplanethat
wasbombinganti-governmentforcesinSyria.TheTurkishauthoritiessaidthattheRussian
planewasdownedafteritcrossedintoTurkishairspace.Ananti-Turkishpubliccampaign
followedinRussia,withPresidentPutinvowingtopunishTurkeyandissuingtwodecrees
imposingsanctionsonthecountry,includinganendtothevisafreeregimeandimport/export
operationsbetweenthetwocountriesaswellasrestrictionontheactivitiesofTurkish
businesses.Ironically,RussiaissodependentonTurkishconstructionandsomeother
companiesespeciallysincetheWestimposedsanctionsoverUkrainethattheRussian
governmentisnowpreparingtobacktrackandliftsanctionsagainstselectTurkishfirms
(DeutscheWelleRussianservice,January15).

ThehistoryofCircassiansettlersfromTurkeyintheNorthCaucasusdatesbacktothe19th
century,whentheRussianEmpireexpandedinseveraldirections,conqueringanddestroying
statesandnations.WhentheRussianimperialarmiesdealtthefinalblowtoCircassianforces
nearwhatisnowthecityofSochiontheBlackSea,theRussianauthoritiesquicklysetoutto
altertheethnicmapofthearea.TheCircassianpopulationthatremainedwasdeportedtothe
OttomanEmpire,manywerestarvedtodeathandonlyaminoritywasallowedtostayintheir
homeland.AftertheendoftheColdWar,someCircassiansfromTurkeystartedreturningto
theirhistoricalhomelandintheNorthCaucasus.HundredsresettledinKabardino-Balkaria
andAdygea,buttheauthoritiesnevermadetheprocesseasyforCircassianswhowishedto
return.

OnJanuary14,theFederationofCaucasianOrganizationsofTurkey(KAFFED)saiditwas
callingforanextraordinaryconferenceoftheInternationalCircassianAssociation(ICA),an
organizationcreatedbytheRussiansecurityservicesintheearly1990s,whichsoughtto
regulatetiesbetweenforeignCircassiandiasporagroupsandCircassiansintheNorth
Caucasus.KAFFEDsaiditwasalarmedbythemountingproblemsofCircassianreturnees
fromTurkeyintheNorthCaucasus,whoarefacingincreasedpressureconnectedto
deterioratingRussian-Turkishrelations(Caucasreview.com,January15).However,theICA
itselfhasbeencriticizedbymanyCircassianactivistsforitscomplacencyandlackofwillto
defendCircassianinterests.Hence,anextraordinarymeetingofICAisunlikelytochange
thesituation.

AccordingtotheRussianFederalMigrationService(FBS)inKabardino-Balkaria,90
Turkishcitizenscurrentlyhavetemporaryresidencepermitsand104Turkishcitizenshave
permanentresidencepermits.In2015,theFMSregistered936newarrivalsfromTurkeyand
removed859fromtheirregistry.Theauthoritiesclaimthatonly7outof26peoplewhohad
theirresidencypermitsannulledwereethnicCircassians.Theauthoritiesaccusedthe
Circassianrepatriatesofviolatingtherulesofregistration(propiska),whicharenotoriously
hardtonavigateevenfornativeRussianscitizens.Thereturneesreportedlywerenotlivingat
theaddresseswheretheywereregistered.RegistrationinRussiaisnotsimplyaboutnotifying
theauthoritieswhereoneresides,butaboutreceivingpermissiontoresideataspecificplace,
andtheprocessofreceivingsuchpermissionisrifewithcorruption.ValeryKhatazhukov,a
rightsactivistfromKabardino-Balkaria,calledonthegovernoroftherepublic,YuriKokov,to
stopthedeportationofCircassianreturneesfromTurkey,butthegovernordidnotrespond
(KavkazskyUzel,January15).

Meanwhile,RussianexpertsputKabardino-BalkariaatthebottomofthelistofRussian
regionsrankedbytheiroverallstability.Expertsnotethelowinvestmentactivityinthe
republic,thecontinuingcampaignofpublickillings,andtheslumpininvestmentinhuman
capital(Onkavkaz.com,January14).Circassianactiviststhemselvesnotethatmanyofthe
CircassianrefugeesfromSyriawhomadeittoRussiaandtheNorthCaucasuseventually
chosetoemigratetoEuropeoratleasttrytodosoratherthanremainintheregion.The
activistssayitisanalarmingsignforKabardino-BalkariaandotherCircassian-populated
republicsthattheircompatriotspreferEuropetotheirownhomeland.Outoftheestimated
3,000CircassianSyrianswhoarrivedinRussia,40percent,orabout1,200individuals,
continuedontoEurope(Ekhokavkaza,January15).

Giventhecurrentconditions,withlifeintheNorthCaucasusnotanattractiveoptionevenfor
manyCircassianrefugeesfromSyria,theTurkishCircassiansarenotbeingdeportedbecause
thereisanoverflowofrefugees.Instead,itappearsthattheRussianauthoritiesareusingthe
deteriorationinrelationswithTurkeytosettlescoreswithCircassianactivists,whohave
pushedforthereturnofwillingCircassianstotheirhistoricalhomelandintheNorthCaucasus.

--ValeryDzutsati

GermanyIsRealTargetofItalysOppositiontoRussiasPlannedNordStreamTwo

AuniquecoalitionistakingshapeinEuropeagainstGerman-Russianplanstodoublethe
NordStreamnaturalgaspipeline.Italyhasjoinedagroupofcountries,mostlyfromCentral-
EasternEurope,inopposingtheimplementationofthisenergyproject,whichisspearheaded
byRussiasstate-rungasmonopolyGazprom.Untilnow,someeasternEuropeanUnion
membersstates,includingtheBaltics(Lithuania,LatviaandEstonia)andPolandcountries
particularlysensitivetoRussianmovestoreassertgeopoliticalinfluenceovertheformerSoviet
spacehadfrequentlyaccusedRomeofnotstandingfirmlyenoughagainstMoscows
aggressiveforeignpolicy.

NordStreamrunsundertheBalticSeaandconnectsVyborg,inRussia,withGreifswald,in
Germany.Itsprojectedexpansion(alsoknownasNordStreamTwo)shouldbecompleted
by2019,doublingtheexistingpipelinenetworkscurrentcapacityof55billioncubicmeters
(bcm)ofgas.OpponentstoNordStreamsupgrade,includingtheUnitedStates,arguethat
theinitiativemaybegeopoliticallydangerousforEurope.WithNordStreamTwoupand
running,Russiamight,infactrely,ontheBalticSeacorridortocircumventpolitically
unfriendlyneighborsinEasternEuropenotleastUkraineandsupplygasdirectlyto
GermanyandWesternEurope(seeEDM,September15,17,21,2015).

DuringthelastEUsummit,inmid-December2015,EuropeanCouncilPresidentDonaldTusk
bluntlystatedthatNordStreamTwoposedaproblemforEuropesenergypolicy(Reuters
Italia,December18,2015).AccordingtodatafromtheEuropeanCommission,whichTusk
citedatthetime,ifNordStreamTwoweretobedeveloped,itwouldincreasethecontinents
dependenceononesupplierandconcentrate80-percentofRussiangasimportsintoone
Europe-boundroute(Ansa,December21,2015).

ItalyandotherEUcountriescontendthatGermanyisopportunisticallybreachingtherulesof
theEUsThirdEnergyPackage,whichmaintainsthatonecompanyinthiscaseGazprom
cannotownboththepipelineandthegasbeingpipedthroughit.ItalianPrimeMinisterMatteo
RenziraisedtheissueattheEUmeetinglastDecember.Onthatoccasion,hehighlightedthat
thedoublingofNordStreamwouldundercutEuropesmuch-trumpetedquestforenergy
securityinparticular,thediversificationofsuppliersandroutes(Ansa,December19,2015).

ApartfromthelegalbasisoftheNordStreamTwoinitiative,Renzialsowarnedofits
geopoliticalimplications.IntheItalianprimeministerswords,theexpansionofNordStream
contradictsEuropescurrentsanctionspolicyagainstRussia.Yet,ItalysprotestsagainstNord
StreamTwoarenotreallyaboutRomesrelationswithMoscow,whichremainsanimportant
politicalandeconomicpartnerfortheItaliangovernment.Rather,itisallaboutthebalanceof
powerwithintheEU.PrimeMinisterRenziistryingtochallengeBerlinsexcessivepowerin
theEuropeanbloc,notablyoverthehandlingofthecontinentaleconomyandtheimmigration
crisis.AndItalysallegationsofGermanysself-interesteddoublestandardstowardRussia
havesouredrelationsbetweenthetwoEuropeancountries(CorrieredellaSera,December
18,2015).

GermanywasattheforefrontofagroupofEUcountriesthatpushedagainsttheconstruction
oftheSouthStreampipeline,aGazprom-ledinitiativetotransportRussiangasfromtheBlack
SeacoasttoEuropebyoutflankingUkraine,whichtheKremlinscrappedlatein2014.Italy
believesthatGermanyexploitedtheEUThirdEnergyPackagetoderailSouthStream
because,atitscore,thisprojectwasaproductofthepartnershipbetweentheItalianstate-
ownedoilandgasproducerENIandGazprom(RT,December16,2015).SomeItalian
observersbelievethattherealizationofSouthStreamcouldhaveturnedtheItalianPeninsula
intoakeytransitpointforRussiannaturalgas,somethingthatwouldhavecollidedwith
GermanyseffortstobecometheonlyenergyhubinEuropeforgascomingfromRussia
(CorrieredellaSera,December19,2015).

ItalyiscurrentlyworkingtotransformitselfintoatransitcountrytoredirecttoNorthernand
WesternEuropegassuppliescomingfromtheCaucasusandtheMediterranean.Inthis
regard,RomeisincreasingitsparticipationintheSouthernGasCorridor(SGC),aplanned
systemofpipelinestobringnaturalgasfromtheAzerbaijanigasfieldofShahDeniztoItaly
viaGeorgia,Turkey,GreeceandAlbania.AndtheSGCcouldbepotentiallyextendedto
channelIranianandTurkmenistanigas.

ItalyssouthernborderisexpectedtobetheentrypointofgaspipedtoWesternEurope
throughtheSGCswesternmostsection,theTrans-AdriaticPipeline(TAP).LastDecember,
ItalysenergyfirmSNAM,whichiscontrolledbytheItalianTreasury,boughtfromNorways
Statoila20-percentstakeintheTAPconsortium.TAPwillcarry10bcmofAzerbaijanigasto
Europeby2018,withtheprobabilityofdoublingsuppliesinthefuture(Repubblica,
December17,2015).

GermanysChancellorAngelaMerkelhasbeendefendinghergovernmentsenergypolicy,
assertingthatthedoublingofNordStreamissimplyaneconomicopportunityforGermanand
Russianenterprises:aninitiativethatdoesnotharboranyunderlyinggeopoliticaldesigns(RT,
December18,2015).AccordingtoRussiaspermanentrepresentativetotheEU,Vladimir
Chizhov,theThirdPackagedoesnotlegallyapplytoNordStreamTwobecauseitwillbean
offshorepipelinerunningthroughinternationalwaters(TASS,December24,2015).

ItseemsthattheKremlinisworkinghardtopaperoverItalyandGermanysdisagreement
overtheexpansionofNordStream.RussiablamestheattemptstosinkNordStreamTwo
onlyontheBaltics,theVisegradFour(aloosepoliticalgroupingoftheCzechRepublic,
Hungary,PolandandSlovakia),UkraineandtheUS,whilenevermentioningItaly(Sputnik
News,January4).Meanwhile,Romehasrepeatedlycalledforaneasingofsanctionson
Russia,withPrimeMinisterRenziquestioningtheirautomaticrenewal,albeitinvain(see
EDM,December17,2015).

Assuch,MoscowcouldbeexpectedtofavorRomesentryintotheproject,whosecurrent
EuropeanparticipantsincludeGermanysE.ONandBASF,RoyalDutchShell,Austrias
OMVandFrancesEngie(CorrieredellaSera,January10).However,ENIhasimmediately
deniedreportsaboutitspossibleparticipationinNorthStreamTwo,concedingonlythat
Saipem,itspipe-layingsubsidiarycompany,couldjointheprojectasasimplecontractorfor
theunderseapipelineconstructionwork(Eastonline,January15).Furthermore,theItalian
governmenthasreiteratedthatithasnoplantoencouragetheexpansionofNorthStreamand
thatitisinsteadfocusedonsettingupaMediterraneangashub(ReutersItalia,January14).

Thus,despiteanyRussianattemptstobridgethegulfbetweenRomeandBerlinoverthe
doublingofNordStream,theItaliancabinetappearsdeterminedtocarryoutits
confrontationalstancevis--visGermany.

--EmanueleScimia

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From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/18/201604:05:50AM
To: RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Subject: WalterRussellMead--AndrewJackson,Revenant-TheAmericanInterest

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/01/17/andrew-jackson-revenant/

AndrewJackson,Revenant
NotsincehefoughtwithNicholasBiddleoverthefutureoftheBankoftheUnitedStateshasAndrewJacksonbeenthis
controversialorthiscentralinAmericanpoliticallife.Jacksonianpopulism,thesenseofhonor-drivenegalitarianismand
fierynationalismthatdroveAmericanpoliticsformanyyears,hasneverbeenhatedandreviledasoftenasitistoday,and
manyAmericanacademicsandintellectuals(tosaynothingofHollywoodicons)areclosetodemandingthatJacksonian
sentimentberedefinedasahatecrime.

ForPresidentBarackObamaandhispoliticalalliesinparticular,JacksonianAmericaisthefatherofallevils.Jacksonians
arewhothethenSenatorhadinmindwhen,inthecampaignof2008,hespokeofthebitterclingersholdingontotheir
gunsandtheirBibles.Theyarethesourceoftheforeignpolicyinstinctshemostdeplores,supportingIsraelalmost
reflexively,demandingoverwhelmingresponsetoterrorattacks,agitatingfortightimmigrationcontrols,resistingdiplomacy
withIranandNorthKorea,supportingGuantanamo,cynicalabouttheUN,skepticalofclimatechange,andwillingtouse
enhancedinterrogationagainstterroristsinarmsagainsttheUnitedStates.

Hehatestheirinstinctsathome,too.ItisJacksonianswho,asIwroteinSpecialProvidencebackin2001,seetheSecond
AmendmentasthefoundationofandsecurityforAmericanfreedom.ItisJacksonianswhomostresentillegalimmigration,
dontwanttosubsidizetheurbanpoor,supportaggressivepolicingandlongprisonsentencesforviolentoffendersandwho
aretheslowesttoevolveonissueslikegaymarriageandtransgenderrights.

Thehateandthedisdaindontspringfromanythingastrivialaspique.Historically,JacksonianAmericahasbeentheenemy
ofmanyofwhatPresidentObama,rightly,seesassomeofAmericasmostimportantadvances.Jacksoniansentiment
embracesaconceptoftheUnitedStatesasafolkcommunityand,overtime,thatfolkcommunitywasgenerallyconstrued
aswhitesonly.LynchlawandJimCrowweremanifestationsofJacksoniancommunalism,andtherearefewexamplesof
race,religiousorethnicprejudiceinwhichJacksonianAmericahasntindulged.Jacksonianshavecomealongwayon
race,buttheywillnevermovefarenoughandfastenoughforliberalopinionliberalsaremovingtoo,andarebecoming
angrierandmoreexactingregardlessofJacksonianprogress.

Justasbad,intheviewofthePresidentandhisallies,Jacksoniansdonthavemuchrespectfortheeducatedandthe
credentialed.LikeWilliamF.Buckley,theywouldratherbegovernedbythefirst100namesinthephonebookthanbythe
Harvardfaculty.Theyloathetheinterferingbusybodiesoftheprogressivestate,believethatgovernment(exceptforthe
policeandthemilitary)isanecessaryevil,thinkmostexpertsanduniversityprofessorsarenosmarterorwiserthanother
people.andfeelonlycontemptforthegendertheoristsandthesocialjusticewarriorsofthecontemporaryclassroom.

VirtuallyeverythingaboutprogressivepoliticstodayisaboutliquidatingtheJacksonianinfluenceinAmericanlife.From
immigrationpolicy,toutedasendingtheerawhenAmericanwhiteswerethepopulationoftheUnitedStates,togunpolicy
andtoregulatorypolicy,PresidentObamaandhiscoalitionaimtocrushwhatJacksonianslove,empowerwhattheyfear,
andexaltwhattheyhate.

JacksonianAmericaismanythingswellorganizedisntoneofthem.Jacksoniansarefoundinbothpoliticalpartiesmost
arehabituallyindifferenttonationalpolitics,seeingallpoliticiansasequallycorrupt,equallyuseless.OtherthantheNRA,
therearenotmanynationalorganizationsorganizedaroundthepromotionofaJacksonianagenda.Intheworldofthink
tanksandelitemedia,theJacksonianvoiceisseldomheardandneverheeded.

ItishardforJacksonianstomobilizepolitically.NeitherpartyreallyembracesaJacksonianagenda.Combiningasuspicion
ofWallStreet,ahatredoftheculturalleft,aloveofmiddleclassentitlementprograms,andafearoffreetrade,Jacksonian
AmericahasproblemswithbothRepublicanandDemocraticagendas.AnyJacksonianpoliticalmovementwillstartasa
partyinsurgency,andtheJacksonianswillonthewholebelesswellfunded,lessexperiencedandlessinstitutionally
powerfulthantheirpartyopponents.Jacksoniansareneitherliberalnorconservativeinthewaysthatpoliticalelitesuse
thosetermstheyareradicallyegalitarian,radicallypro-middleclass,radicallypatriotic,radicallypro-SocialSecurity.They
arenot,undernormalcircumstances,joinersinpoliticstheyareindividualistswhoorganizeinresponsetothreats,andtheir
individualismgoestotheirstandsonwhatoutsiderssometimesthinkarethesocialissuesthatunitethem.
ManyJacksonians,forexample,arenotevangelicalsandnotevenChristianatall.Whilesomearestronglyanti-abortion,
othersbelievethatindividualfreedommakesabortionnobodysbusinessbuttheirown.Somestandstronglybehindthedrug
warmanyindulgeinrecreationaldrugsandsomeJacksoniansgrowormanufacturethem,muchlikethemoonshinerswho
havebeenevadingrevenuerssincetheWashingtonadministration.

TheresanotherobstacleinthefaceofaJacksonianrising:JacksonianshavebeenhardhitbythechangesintheAmerican
economy.Thesecureworkingclasswagesthatunderpinnedtwogenerationsofrisingaffluenceforthewhite(and
minority)industrialworkingclasshavedisappeared.ThatisntjustaboutmoneythecoherenceofJacksoniancommunities
andfamilylifehasbeenseriouslyimpaired.ThesearethepointsCharlesMurraymakesinhisharrowingComingApart:The
StateofWhiteAmerica,1960-2010theyhavebeenrecentlyreinforcedbystudiesdocumentingaholocaustoflowerand
lowermiddleclasswhites.

Thesedevastatingchanges,utterlyignoredbyanuppermiddleclassintellectualandculturalestablishmentthatnotso
secretlyhopesforademographicchangeinAmericathatwillfinallymarginalizeuncredentialedwhitepeopleonceandfor
all,makeJacksoniansangryandfrustrated,buttheyalsomakeithardertodevelopanorganizedpoliticalstrategyin
responsetosomeoftheworstandmostdangerousconditionsfacedbyanymajorAmericandemographicgrouptoday.
Stronginnumbers(thoughnotamajority),awakeningtoanewsenseofangerandendangerment,Jacksoniansarestill
gropingforamovementandaprogram.

WhatweareseeinginAmericanpoliticstodayisaJacksoniansurge.ItisnotyetarevolutiononthescaleofOldHickorys
movementthattransformedAmericanpoliticsforageneration.SucharevolutionmaynotbepossibleintodaysAmerica,
andinanycasethecurrentwaveofJacksonianactivismandconsciousnessisstillinanearlyandsomewhatincoherent
phase.Inthepast,moderateleadersonthecenterleftandcenterrightalikehavefoundwaystocaptureJacksonianenergy.
FDRwasabletostealthedemagogicenergyofHueyLongRichardNixonmarginalizedGeorgeWallaceevenashe
respondedtosomeofWallacesconcernsaboutbussingandcrime.(Hedidnot,however,givewaytoWallaceonthecore
issueofracialequality.)

DonaldTrump,fornow,isservingasakindofblankscreenonwhichJacksoniansprojecttheirhopes.Proposinghimself
asastrongleaderwhogetsAmericabutisaboveparty,TrumpappealstoJacksonianideasaboutleadership.Trumps
JacksonianappealhaslefttheRepublicanPartyindeepdisarray,demonstratingthegulfbetweencontemporaryconservative
ideologyandJacksoniannationalism.Indeed,oneofthereasonsthatTrumphasntbeenhurtbyattacksthathighlighthis
lackoflongtermcommitmenttotheboilerplateconservativeagenda(eitherinthesocialoreconomicconservativevariant)
isthatJacksonianvotersarelessdogmaticandlessconservativethansomeoftheirwould-bepoliticalrepresentativescare
toacknowledge.JacksonianslikeSocialSecurityandMedicaremuchmorethanmostRepublicanintellectuals,andtheylike
immigrationandfreetrademuchless.

WhateverhappenstotheTrumpcandidacy,itnowseemsclearthatJacksonianAmericaisrousingitselftofightforits
identity,itscultureanditsprimacyinacountrythatitbelievesitshouldown.Itsculturalvalueshavebeentraduced,its
economicinterestsdisregarded,anditsfutureasthecenterofgravityofAmericanpoliticallifeisunderattack.Overseas,it
seestraditionalrivalslikeRussia,China,NorthKoreaandIranmakingheadwayagainstaPresidentthatitdistrustsmore
troublingstill,inISISandjihaditerroritseestherapidspreadofamovementaimingatthemassmurderofAmericans.
JacksonianAmericahaslostallconfidenceinthewillortheabilityofthepoliticalestablishmenttofightthethreatsitsees
abroadandathome.Itwantswhatithasalwayswanted:totakeitsfutureintoitsownhands.

ThebiggeststoryinAmericanpoliticstodayisthis:AndrewJacksonismadashell,andhesnotgoingtotakeitanymore.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/13/201608:47:00AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"TurkeydetainsthreeRUSSIANSafter[massive]Istanbulbombing,"themoscowtimes.com,1/13

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,January13,20168:47AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"TurkeydetainsthreeRUSSIANSafter[massive]Istanbulbombing,"themoscowtimes.com,1/13

And:RussiamustcutspendingorsufferFINANCIALCRASHFinanceminister[AntonSILUANOV],
themoscowtimes.com,1/13

And:Afallenoligarch[VladimirYAKUNIN]sendswarningtorestofPutininsiders,Bloomberg.com,
1/23

ExrailbosssaysRussiahasnorulingelite,justPutin.Putinsinnercirclewillcontinuetorotate.
RememberwhathappenedtoBorisBEREZOVSKYandVladimirGUSINSKY,hesaid.

And:DonaldTRUMPhaspraisedPutinsfirmleadership,nowheextendsthatpraisetoKIMJONun:
DonaldTrumppraisesKimJongunforhisfirmhandwithexecuteduncle,telegraph./co.uk,1/12

TrumphaspraisedtheleadershipstyleofNorthKoreasdictatorfortheamazingwayhemurders
politicalrivals.

And:RussianCHINESEtradeplummets[by34.4%]in2015,themoscowtimes.com,1/13

And:Herethereisnoplaceforthosewhodisagree,OnthedeathsduringanapparentrecentPURGE
ofseveralcommandersoftheproRussianseparatistsintheDonbass:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/exussr/2016/01/12/1478772.html

And:GarriKASPAROVhassparkedamajordiscussionofthetopicRussiaafterPutincommentsby
YakovGORDON:http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27480245.html

And:YuliyaLATYNINAonRussiasanticyberrevolution,
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/71399.html?print=1

And:UkraineinteltellsOSCEwhereRussianPROXIESkeeptanks,artillery,MRLS,unian.info,1/13

And:Putinsallegedsoninlaw[KirillSHAMALOV,35]isRussiaslatestbillionaire[fortunehas
swelledto$1.2billion]FORBES,themoscowtimes.com,1/13

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 01/13/201602:50:24PM
To: swallen@1scom.net
Subject: InternetNotes13January2016
Attachments: IN13Jan16.docx

InternetNotes13January2016

LeonidRadzikhovskiyon2016andaperfectstormintheKremlin

Yakuninsendsawarning?

YakuninturnsdowntheofferofaFederationCouncilseat

StanovayaonYakuninandPutin

Putinsreportedson-in-lawShamalovisRussiaslatestdollarbillionaire

RussiaandEconomicTurmoilinChina

Siluanovsaysthegovernmentmustcutspendingorfaceafinancialcrisis

LeonidRadzikhovskiyon2016andaperfectstormintheKremlin
Comment:Radzikhovskiy,whohasacolumninRossiyaskayaGazeta,wrotethisonefortheUkrainianNovoye
VremyaIveoftennotedthatitwouldtakequitealot,aperfectstormofpoliticalandeconomiccrises,todislodge
PuinfromtheKremlin.Wearentthere,buttheelementsofapotentialstormcouldbetakingshape.Itremainstobe
seewhethertheywillcometogetherattherighttimeintherightway,withthe2016-2018electioncycleapproaching,
butwithUralsgradeoilatnearly$30/barrel(seeyesterdaysnotes)andPutin(inhisBildinterview)tryingtoputa
positivespinonthat,astormfrontdoesappeartobeforming.

http://m.nv.ua/opinion/radzihovsky/idealnyj-shtorm-v-kremle-89925.html

TheKremlinfindsitselfinaperfectstormsituation:thecollapseoftheeconomymeansanimpendingpoliticalcollapseaswell.In
2013-2014,vlastexperiencedaforeignpolicyfailurebiggerthanallthefailuresindomesticpoliticsandeconomics.Vlastfinds
itselftrappedinacorner,withnowayout.

Televisioncantturnaneconomicfailureintoaneconomicbreakthrough:peoplecangotothestoreandseetherealprices,they
cangotoworkandseewhatishappeningtotheirwages.

Meanwhile,televisiontranslatesinternationalisolationintoRussianinfluenceonworldaffairs,thefailureinUkraineasprotectingthe
Donbass,thefailurewithChinaasstrengtheningRussiaspositioninEurasia,theEurasianUnion,whichisgoingnowhere,asa
powerfulalliance.ThephraseRussiaspositionintheworldisstrengtheningisnothingbutacollectionofwords.

Wehavenoallies?Well,tohellwiththem,weareRussians,wewillprevail!...Therehasbeenacatastrophicdeclineinforeign
trade?Wehaveimportsubstitution!...

ThecatastropheforPutiniscomingonatjustthatmomentwhenRussianseyesarebeginningtoperceivereality.Putinwilldo
anythingtopreventthathappeninghewillnotwithdrawfromUkraine,hewillnotmakeanexitfromSyria,thoughnobodylikes
thatidioticadventureWherewearebombing,therewillbepeace,thatsthelogicofofficialpropaganda

IfyoudontbuildacompletelyclosedcountrylikeNorthKoreaandPutindoesntwanttodothatandwillnotdoitunderany
circumstancessoonerorlater,realitywilltakehold.Sothisnextyearwillbeaturningpoint
TheyveplayedtheSyriancardandtherearenonewonestoplayRussiahasnotrumpcardnotineconomics,notinculture,
notintechnology,notinanythingrelatedtosoftpowerInthissituation,theonlythingwehavelefttoplayisclaimsthatour
tanksarefaster,andwhataboutourrockets?Wheretousethem?WecanusethemintheMiddleEast,averyexplosiveregion,
butPutinisveryafraidofthat

SomemindlessPutincriticswritethatVVPintendstousenuclearweaponsagainstSaudiArabia.Inacertainsense,theyareright
atleastinthatasimilarblowwouldbebeneficialtoRussia.Itwouldmeananexplosionontheoilmarketandanexorbitantprice
foroil.OnlyPutinwouldnevertakesuchariskitwouldbearealwar,nottheDonbass,butarealcatastropheAnalliancewith
IrantoattackIsrael,Turkey,orSaudiArabiawouldbeaworldwar.ItwouldmeanthedeathoftheRussianstateandPutinknows
that.
In2016,thesystemiccrisisinRussianvlastwillmoveontoanewstageapartfromirritationwithsocialandeconomicpolicy,
addforeignpolicyWhenitbecomesapparentthattheemperorhasnoclothes,Iwouldntgiveyouthreekopecksforthe
regimescontinuedexistence.Whatwillfollow,whatkindofconsequencestherewillbe,noonecansay

Comment:TheresmoreonRussiaseconomicandfinancialproblemsbelow.

Yakuninsendsawarning?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/a-fallen-russia-oligarch-sends-warning-to-rest-of-putin-insiders

HewasoneofthemostpowerfulmeninRussiaforadecade,anoldpalofthepresidentwhooversawamillion
workersandarailnetworkspanning11timezones.

ButthenVladimirYakuninwassuddenlyout,endingacareerthatincludedastintasanintelligenceofficerat
theUnitedNationsinNewYorkduringtheColdWar.NowYakunin,67,hassomepartingadviceforthe
remainingmembersofwhathedismissedasPutinsso-calledinnercircle:knowyourplace.

Thiscirclewillcontinuetorotate,YakuninsaidinhisprivateofficeinMoscowduringa90-minuteinterview.
PutinhasyettoformastablerulingclasslikeRussiahadduringczaristtimes,theformerheadofstate-
ownedRussianRailwaysJSCsaid.

Thecommentsareararepublicadmissionfromalongtimeinsiderofthefragilityofwealthandinfluenceinthe
opaqueandseeminglyironcladsystemofcontrolPutinhasbuiltover15years.Withthatsystemunder
unprecedentedpressurefromplungingoilpricesandinternationalsanctions,anystepPutintakestomaintain
hisgriponpowerreverberatesfarbeyondMoscow.

BerezovskyWarning

Someinsidersaremakingthemistakeofviewingtheirpropertyandprivilegeasinalienablerights,but
everythingtheyhavehingesonPutinsshiftingviewsofwhatsgoodforRussia,accordingtoYakunin.He
offeredtwoexamplesfromthepresidentsfirsttermtoillustratethedangersofoverreach.

RememberwhathappenedtoBorisBerezovskyandVladimirGusinsky,hesaid,referringtotwopost-Soviet
oligarchswholosttheirfortunestryingtoinfluencePutinsKremlinthewaytheydidBorisYeltsins.

YakuninsdeparturefromtherailmonopolyinAugustwasthebiggestshakeupinyearswithinthenew
politburo,thehighestauthorityundercommunism,andpresagesmoretocome,accordingtoOlga
Kryshtanovskaya,asociologistwhostrackedtheriseofthesecurityservicesunderretiredKGBColonelPutin.

RoughresignationsbyPutinloyalistsarerareandYakuninsrejectionofthecustomarysenateseatas
consolationisevenmoreso,shesaid.

TheU.S.blacklistedYakunininitsinitialroundofsanctionsovertheUkraineconflictinMarch2014forbeing
bothacloseconfidantofPutinandaninfluentialgovernmentofficialRussianRailwayscarriesmorethana
billionpassengersandabilliontonsofcargoayear.

DachaBuddies

YakuninandothermembersofPutinsSt.Petersburgcliqueinthe1990s,includinghischiefofstaffandfellow
formerspySergeiIvanov,constitutetheRussianleadershipsinnercircle,theTreasuryDepartmentsaidat
thetime.
YakuninandPutinwerealsoneighborsintheelitedachacommunityontheshoreofLakeKomsomolskand
theyservedasco-foundersoftheOzeroDachaCooperativeinNovember1996,itsaid.

AnotherOzerofounder,YuriKovalchuk,wasalsoamongthefirst20Russianssanctioned,aswerethreeother
St.PetersburgbusinessmenwhobecamebillionairesafterPutincametopower--GennadyTimchenkoandthe
brothersArkadyandBorisRotenberg.

ThereasonsYakuninwaskickedoutofthisexclusiveclubaredisputed.

BritishPassport

HesayspubliclythedecisiontoresignwashisownandPutinapprovedit,butpeoplefamiliarwiththematter
saidthepresidentfeltbetrayedwhenYakuninseldestsonobtainedcitizenshipfromtheU.K.whenthat
countrywaspenalizingRussiaoverUkraine.

TheKremlinwasawareoftheissueandnobodyobjected,Yakuninsaid.

MysonhaslivedintheU.K.forfiveyearsandhadtherighttoobtaincitizenship,hesaid.Imadenosecretof
thisfromthecountrysleadership.

Putinsspokesman,DmitryPeskov,declinedtocomment.

Kryshtanovskaya,thesociologist,saiditmayhavejustbeenamatterofmismanagementatRussianRailways.
Thecompanyhadbecomebloated,inefficientandplaguedbyaccusationsofcorruption,sonewleadershipwas
needed,especiallywiththeeconomymiredinarecession,shesaid.

SafeguardingWealth

ThemanpickedtoreplaceYakunin,OlegBelozerov,isa46-year-oldlogisticsspecialistanddeputytransport
ministerfromSt.PetersburgwhohaslongstandingtiestotheRotenbergs.Seethe21August2015notes.

EvgenyMinchenko,whorunstheInternationalInstituteforPoliticalExpertiseinMoscow,saidYakuninwas
simplyoutmaneuveredbymoreaggressiveinsiderswhosebusinessinterestswerebeinghamperedbytherail
monopoly.

Whateverthecause,Minchenkosaidonethingisindisputable:PeopleclosetoPutin,whocouldextendhisrule
toaquartercenturyifhewinsre-electionin2018,areincreasinglyfocusedonsafeguardingtheirwealthand
statustopassthemontotheiroffspring.

PutinIn-Law

SomeareevenjoiningPutinsfamily.

KirillShamalov,thesonofNikolayShamalov,anotherco-founderofthedachacooperativecitedbythe
TreasuryDepartment,marriedPutinsyoungestdaughterKaterinain2013andthenbecameatycooninhis
ownright,thanksmainlytoastakeinapetrochemicalcompanyheacquiredfromTimchenkowithfinancing
fromastatebank.

Still,nobodyspositionbutPutinswillbesecureuntilagoverningeliteliketheonethatexistedbeforethe
Bolsheviksswepttopoweracenturyagoisfullyformed,aprocessthatmaytakedecades,accordingto
Yakunin.

TryingtomeasureinfluencebyproximitytopoliticalresourcesisarelicoftheSovietsystem,hesaid.

RegardingYakuninturningdownaFederationCouncilseatandthereasonsforhisdeparture,abitfromthe16September2015
notes:

[YakuninturnsdowntheofferofaFederationCouncilseat

OnYakuninleavinghispostatRussianRailwaysandbeingsetuptotakeaseatintheFederationCouncil,aswellaswhathisdeparturemight
mean,seethe19,20,21,24,27,and31Augustnotes,andthe2,3,and7Septembernotes.Recallthatsomethoughttherewereproblemswith
YakunintakingtheposthedidntliveintheKaliningradregion,wherehewouldbenominated,anddidnotmeettheexceptiontothatrule
(someonecouldbeeligibleiftheyhadservedinadiplomaticpostwiththestatusofambassadorYakuninhadofficiallybeenadiplomat,buthis
statuswasnotofthatrank).ThethoughtwasthathecouldbepartofaspecialpresidentiallistofcandidatesforspotsintheFederation
Council.

http://www.facebook.com/catherine.schulmann/posts/10207858290726146

YakuninhasaskedtheKaliningradgovernornottonominatehim.YekaterinaSchulmanntriestoexplainwhyshesaysthatnobodythought
throughthediplomaticrequirementandthatYakunindiscoveredthataSenatorsseatwouldnotgivehimtheimmunityhehadhopedfor,as
Senatorscanberemovedatanytime.Thereisnoguaranteedtermforthem.Therearentthatmanygoodspotstomovetotheadministrative
machineisexperiencingaperiodofturbulence.Thelawhastobeobservedforappearancessake,butrespectedpeoplehavetobegivenrespect.
Allthisastheresourceloafisshrinking.

Heresmore:

http://www.rferl.org/content/operation-yakunin-goes-off-the-rails/27249927.html

SomethingclearlywentverywrongwithOperationYakunin.AndthisseemstoindicatethatsomethingisnotquiterightwithTeamPutin.

EversinceVladimirYakuninresignedasheadofRussianRailwaysinAugust,Kremlin-watchershavedebatedwhetherthemovewasademotionor
apreludetoanewpoliticalrole.

WasoneofthemostpowerfulandinfluentialmembersofVladimirPutin'sinnercirclebeingkickedofftheisland?Orwashisremovalpartofan
elaborateoperationtoelevatehim?

Weappeartohaveouranswer.

Yakuninannouncedtodaythathewasn'tinterestedinthenewjobtheKremlinhadlinedupforhim:aseatintheFederationCouncil,theupper
chamberofRussia'sparliament,representingKaliningrad.

FewexpectedsomeoneofYakunin'sstature--someonewhohasbeenpersonallyclosetoPutinfordecades--tosettleforbeingarun-of-the-mill
lawmaker.

Initially,pressreportsindicatedthathewouldlikelybenamedtheFederationCouncil'sdeputyspeaker--orperhapsspeaker.Attheveryleasthe
wouldchairanimportantcommittee.

ButKommersantreportedtoday,citingunidentifiedofficials,thatYakuninwouldnotbeamemberoftheFederationCouncil'sleadershipatall.

"MovingVladimirYakunintotheFederationCouncilnowindeedlookslikeanhonorableresignation,andnotthebeginningofhispoliticalcareer,
asitmayhaveseemedinitially,"IlyaKarpyukwroteinPolit.ru.

Andthen,hourslater,Yakuninmadeitclearhewasn'tgoingtofollowthescript.Ratherthanserveasarank-and-filememberoftheFederation
Council,hewouldprefertospendmoretimewithhis...thinktank.

"IhopeIwillbeabletocontinuebeingusefultosocietybyconcentratingonacademicandpublicactivities,primarilyintheareaofinternational
relationsandintercivilizationaldialogue,"Yakuninsaid.

It'shardtolookatallthisandnotcometotheconclusionthatYakuniniseitherleavingorbeingbanishedfromthe"collectivePutin,"thedozenor
soinsiderswhoruleRussia.

Andthatisaverybigdeal.

ThelasttimeanybodyofthisstaturelefttheKremlinleader'sinnersanctumwaswhenAlekseiKudrinresignedasfinanceministerinSeptember
2011.

ThathappenedjustdaysafterPutinannouncedhewouldreturntothepresidency,sparkingtheworstintereliteturbulenceofhisrule.

ItalsohappenedjustmonthsbeforeRussiawitnesseditslargestantigovernmentstreetprotestssincethebreakupoftheSovietUnion.

It'salsohardtonotsuspectthattheYakunindebacleindicatesthattheinformalgoverningmodelthatPutinhasreliedonforhisentirepresidency-
-onebasedonatightgroupofcronies--isinseriousflux,ifnotoutrightcrisis.
Putin'steamhasmasteredtheartofgovernmentbyspets-operatsiya,orcovertops.Significantpersonnelmovesareplannedoutandexecutedwith
militaryprecision.

AndthefactthattheKremlinbotchedthisone--orYakuninwillfullystrayedfromthescript--seemstopointtoaregimethat,despiteoutward
appearancesofomnipotence,isseriouslylosingitsmojo.

Comment:Iwouldntgothatfar.ThedepartureofYakunin,asIwroteinearliernotes,hadbeenfoughtoverforsometime,andhehadlotsof
apparatusopponentswhowantedhimoutatRussianRailways.Therearesomeserioustensionsintheelite,asIvementionedbefore,butthekey
pointhere,Ithink,isthatPutinhasbeenveryirritatedwithsomeoftheheadsofmajorstatecompaniesandtheirhandlingofthoseenterprises
duringthecrisis.Reportedlybothheandthegovernmentareespeciallyirritatedattheconstantrequests(ordemands)forstateaid.Sechin
apparentlygotthemessageandrecentlydroppedRosneftrequestsforNationalWelfareFundmoney.Seethe4Septembernotes.]

Comment:FollowingYakuninsdeparture,VenediktovsaidthatelitesinPutinscircleweretryingtodistance
themselvesfromthepresidentthepointseemedtobethattheysensedthepossibilityofafullscalepoliticalcrisis
andweremovingtoprotectthemselvesandthoseneartothem.IdidntthinkYakuninsdeparturewasasurpriseit
hadbeenalongtimecomingandittookcrisiscircumstancesforPutintoact.Thepointtomakehereisthat,asthe
pieceabovenoted,Yakunin,unlike,say,Cherkesov,didnotactaccordingtothescript(butPutindidnt,either,
accordingtosomeofoursources,inthatYakuninwasnotofferedaleadershippostintheFederationCouncil).Its
interestingthatYakuninbroughtupBerezovskiyandGusinskiy.
TheissueofYakuninssonscitizenshipmayhavebeenanadditionalfactorrecallthatLatyninahassaidthat
ChaykassonhavingofficiallyreceivedforeignresidencydoesnotbodewellfortheProsecutorGeneral(Seethe10
and14December2015notesTherewassomeconfusionoverwhetherArtyomChaykahadappliedforSwiss
residencyorSwisscitizenshipitappearsthatheappliedforresidency).Ofcourse,someofPutinsfriendsandtheir
familymembershaveforeigncitizenship.Inotedtheotherday,forinstance,thatoneoftheRotenbergssonsBoris,
Jr.hadFinnishcitizenship,asdoesRomanRotenberg,ArkadiysnephewandVPoftheRussianHockeyFederation.
Maybeitsthetimingofwhencitizenshipwastakenthatcouldbeafactordoingsoaftertheimpositionofsanctions
mightbethetriggerforPutinsirritation.LatyninanotedthatArtyomChaykaappliedforSwissresidencyafterthe
annexationofCrimea.
StanovayaonYakuninandPutin

ThiswaswrittenbeforetheBloombergarticlehttp://slon.ru/posts/62361

YakuninspathsincehisdeparturefromRussianRailwaysisrevealing,tellingusalotaboutthethinkingandlivesofthePutin
brotherhoodYakuninpreviouslymentionedhiscreatinganewcenter,amentionprimarilydedicatedtoadvertisinghis
foundation(Comment:TheSt.Andreysfoundation,thethinktankreferredtoabove),thatwasitselfasignalthathis
foundationwouldremainevenafterYakuninlosthisRussianRailwayspost

StatusinthePutineliteisnotdeterminedsomuchbyformalpostasbythedistributionofinformalresources,includingproximityto
thepresident.InYakuninscase,PutinwasreportedlyirritatedwithYakuninssonsBritishcitizenshipandwiththescaleofassets
beingdrainedfromRussianRailways
ItslikelythatYakuninwasthinkingaboutwhattodoafterheleftRussianRailwaysoverthelasttwoyears,ashisfatewasin
question.Hesawanoutlineofthatinexpert-scientificactivity.Hehadbeenengagedinadialogueofcivilizations(Comment:
ReferredtoaboveinconnectionwithYakuninsthinktank)ontwoplatformshisDialogueofCivilizationsinternational
forumandintheFranco-RussianDialoguewhichheco-chairedwithamemberoftheFrenchNationalAssembly.ButYakunin
sawhimselfinabiggerrolehisdreamwastobecomeasortofinformalminsterofforeignaffairs,apersonwiththehistorical
missionofestablishingdialoguewithRussiasfriendsaroundtheworld.Hisministrywouldbehisownanalyticalcenter,onethat
wouldofferproposalsforloweringtensionsintheworld.
YakuninisofferinghisservicestoPutin.Heistakinguponhimselftheroleofdove,confirmingthehypothesisthatthe
presidentsbusinessentourageisnotinterestedinconfrontationwiththeWest.Finally,nomatterhowmuchPutinmightbe
disappointedwithhiscomradesandhowmuchtheybedisappointedintheirprospectsforeternallypreservingtheirlucrative
placesinthesystem,nothingcouldpitthemoneagainsttheother(Comment:IwonderwhatStanovayamakesofthe
Bloombergpiece)
YakuninisdoingwhatKudrindidafterhelosthisgovernmentpost.Kudrinwantedtobethemediatorbetweenthepresidentand
the2011-2012protestors.YakuninwantstobethemediatorbetweenPutinandtheWest.Hellbedistrusted,asKudrinwas,
especiallyinEurope,taggedasaPutinagent.Sohisprospectsseemprettynarrowthosewhomightengagewithhisnewcenter
willlikelybethosewhostandtobenefitfromarelationshipwiththeRussianpoliticalandbusinesselite.
YakuninscentercouldinvolveitselfwiththeMinskContactGroupYakuninhaspreviouslycooperatedwithBorisGryzlov,who
hasbeendesignatedRussiasrepresentativetotheContactGroup(Seethe8Januarynotes).Yakuninscentercould,forexample,
comeupwithadraftUkrainianconstitution,whichwouldneverbetakenseriously,butcouldbeusedtodefendRussianpositions
ontheDonbass.
NeitherYakuninnorKudrinhaveanofficialspotinthesystem.Nevertheless,Kudrinisconsideredamemberoftheteam
TheboundariesbetweenstateandpublicorganizationsheadedbyPutincomradesaregraduallybeingobliterated.Thestate
anditsinstitutionsaredissolvingintoasystemofinformaltieswhicharenotcapableofreplacingstateadministration.Thesplitting
upoftheverticalisoneofthemostinterestingprocessinlate-PutineraRussia.
Comment:Yakuninhasshownaninterestingeo-politics,Russiasroleintheworld,andOrthodoxChurchmattersfor
alongtime.HeisknownasanOrthodoxChekistinPutinscircle.Itstruethathisintentionmayhavebeento
parallelKudrinasamemberoftheteamoutsidetheformalchannelsofvlast,butthefirstarticlesuggeststhathis
offeringhisservicesinthatrolehasbeenrebuffed.Why?WhywasKudrinacceptedinsucharoleandYakunin
apparentlynot?DidithavesomethingtodowithmismanagementandcorruptionatRussianRailwaysduringthe
crisis?DidPutinseeYakuninasoneofthosecomplicatingmattersfortheKremlininthemiddleofaneconomiccrisis?
Inthatcontext,maybeYakuninsofferdidntlooktooattractivetoPutin,whohasusuallytakencareofhisfriendswith
somekindofsinecure.ThefactthatYakuninwasnotapparentlyofferedanimportantpostinFederationCouncilmay
indicatethatPutinwassouronhimbeforeYakuninsproposal.ItistruethatKudrinalsoappearedtostepintoa
sensitiveareainofferinghisservicesduringtheprotestwaveandIwonderedabouthowmuchdistrustPutinmight
haveforhimsubsequently.ButmaybePutinfiguredhemightneedKudrinsexpertiseatsomepoint.
Putinsreportedson-in-lawShamalovisRussiaslatestdollarbillionaire
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-alleged-son-in-law-is-russias-latest-billionaire--
forbes/555639.html

ThemanreportedtobeRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sson-in-lawhasbecomethecountry'slatestdollarbillionaire,
theRussianversionofForbesmagazinereportedonTuesday.

KirillShamalov,33,whoaccordingtotheReutersnewsagencyisthehusbandofPutin'sdaughterKaterinaTikhonova,
swelledhisfortuneto$1.2billionfollowingthesaleofastakeingasandpetrochemicalcompanySiburtoChina's
SinopecinDecember,Forbessaid.Shamalovhada21percentstakeinSiburbeforethesale,accordingtoForbes.See
the21Decembernotes.

HedidnotcommenttoForbesonthefigures.

ShamalovistheyoungestsonofNikolaiShamalov,alongtimefriendofPutin'sandshareholderinBankRossiya,which
U.S.officialshavedescribedasthepersonalbankoftheRussianelite.

AReutersreportlastyearidentifiedTikhonovaasPutin'sdaughterandclaimedthatsheandShamalovtogetherowned
assetsworthabout$2billionincludingamulti-million-dollarvillainFrance.

RussiaandEconomicTurmoilinChina

Seeyesterdaysnotes.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/chinas-economic-turmoil-ruins-russias-new-year/555714.html

NewfearsoverChinaseconomyandsharpfallsinthepriceofoilhaveworsenedtheoutlookforRussiaasittriesto
emergefromrecession.

Thepriceofcrude,thelinchpinofRussiaseconomy,fellalmost20percentinthefirsttwoweeksofJanuarytojustabove
$30perbarrelafterChinesestockindexestumbledmorethan10percentinthefirstdaysoftheyear.

WhiletheoilpricefallsthreatenedtoderailhopesforaneconomicrecoveryinRussia,theturmoilonthestockmarkets
deepenedfearsthatChineseeconomicgrowth,whichhaspoweredcommoditypricesandtheglobaleconomy,could
declinefasterthanexpected.ThismayhaveseriousconsequencesforMoscowkeepingthepriceofcommodities
lowerforlongerandweakeningastrategictradepartner.
ForRussia,thisisveryunpleasantnews,saidYevgenyNadorshin,chiefeconomistatAFKSistema,amajorRussian
conglomerate.

Astheoilpriceplunged,Russiasworstcasescenarioappearedtobecomingtrue.Therublefollowedtheoilprice
downward,weakening4percentinthefirsttwoweeksofJanuarytoaround76.5againsttheU.S.dollarnearitslowest
sincethecrisisof1998andlessthanhalfitsvaluetwoyearsago.

FinanceMinisterAntonSiluanovsaidattheGaidarForuminMoscowthathisbudget,whichreceivesaroundhalfits
revenuesfromtheenergyindustry,wouldbalanceonlyat$82perbarrel,accordingtotheReutersnewsagency.
Predictinganaverageoilpriceof$40fortheyear,hesaidthebudgetmustadapttonewrealitiesorRussiawouldseea
repeatofthedisastrousfinancialcrisisof1998-99.FormoreonSiluanov,seetheitembelow.

Healsosaidgovernmentdepartmentsweredrawingup10percentspendingcutsinnon-protectedareas.

Alreadyinitslongestrecessionsincethe1990saftershrinkinganestimated3.7percentlastyear,theeconomycould
contractbyanother2-3percentin2016ifoilpricesaverage$35perbarrel,theCentralBanksaidinDecember,whilethe
budgetdeficitwouldexpandandcurrencyreservesdepleted.

AsurveybystatepollsterVTsIOMpublishedinearlyJanuaryfoundthatmorethanhalfofRussians52percent
thoughtthehardesttimesforthecountrywereyettocome.

StockmarketvolatilityinChinasuggeststhattheycouldberight.Chinaseconomyhasbeenthemaindriverofglobal
demandforcommodities,andaslowingofChinesegrowthwouldexacerbatethepriceslump.

AWorldBankreportinearlyJanuarysaidaone-percentfallinChinasgrowthratewouldreducethevalueofcommodities
byaround6percentovertwoyears,andwarnedofaprotractedperiodoflowcommoditypricesincomingyears.

Oversupplyhasalreadysharplyloweredthecostofoil,gasandmetals,ofwhichRussiaisalsoamajorproducer.Energy
pricesfellby41percentlastyearandindustrialmetalsby24percent,accordingtotheS&PGoldmanSachsCommodity
Index.

AnotherthreattopricesisifChinamovestostimulateitseconomy.MorganStanleysaidinaJanuaryreportthatarapid
devaluationoftheChinesecurrencydesignedtoboostitsexportscouldsendoilintothe$20s[perbarrel]itslowest
in15years.

Ontopofthat,astrengtheningU.S.dollarispushingdownpricesbymakingitmoreexpensiveforthoseusingother
currenciestobuydollar-tradedcommodities.

Themovementofthesetwocurrenciesismutuallyreinforcing,MorganStanleysaidaweakerChineseeconomy
encouragesflighttothedollar,whileastrongerdollarincreasesthetemptationforChinesepolicymakerstodevalue.

PresidentVladimirPutininaninterviewwithGermanysBildnewspaperinearlyJanuarytriedtocastcommoditieslow
pricesasablessingindisguise,sayingthatwhenoilpriceswerehighitwasverydifficultforustoresistspendingoil
revenuestocovercurrentexpenses,andthenewrealitywouldbeanincentivetorebalancetheeconomy.

Butalackofavailableinvestmentcapitalhasstifleddiversification.Andamidaslumpinincomesandconsumer
spending,Russiascommoditiessectorisoneofthefewmajorindustriestobefaringrelativelywell,analystssaid.

Theweakrublehasallowedenergy,metalsandminingcompanies,whichearnexportrevenuesindollars,tomaintain
incomesinrubleterms.Meanwhile,Russianproducershavebecomemuchmorecompetitiveonglobalmarketsthanks
tohugefallsinthecostoflaborthathaveloweredproductioncosts.
ThecostoflaborinRussiahasfallentorivalthatofChina,saidValeryMironov,deputydirectoroftheCenterof
DevelopmentattheHigherSchoolofEconomics,aMoscowuniversity.

However,newinvestmentinproductionhasbeenlimitedbysanctionsandtherecessionathome.Andifpricesremain
lowforanextendedperiodoftime,evenRussiancompanieswillbeforcedtoretrench,analystssaid.

Inthelongerterm,worriesoverChinesegrowthalsostrikeRussianinterestsinadeeperway,knockingconfidencein
ChinaasafinancialallyforMoscow.

FollowingabreakdowninrelationswiththeWestfollowingRussiasannexationofCrimeain2014andmorerecently
withTurkeyovertheshootingdownofaRussianwarplaneontheTurkish-SyrianborderMoscowhaslookedtobuild
relationswithdynamicemergingmarkets,particularlywithChina.

HopesofafloodofChinesecapitalintoRussiafailedtomaterializefollowingtheUkrainecrisis,butthelonger-termaimof
hitchingRussiatoeast-Asiangrowthremained.

Thatdecisionnowlooksincreasinglyflawed,saidNeilShearing,chiefemergingmarketseconomistatCapital
Economics.Russiaspivottotheeastandhopethatdevelopingnationswouldbecometheengineofglobalgrowthhave
beenunderminedbyrecentevents,hesaid.

Afull-blowncrisisisunlikelythankstoChinasmassiveforeignexchangereserves.ButincreasingfearsoflowerChinese
growtharecomingastheUnitedStatesbeginstoliftinterestrates,fuelingamassivereallocationofcapitalfrom
emergingmarketstodevelopedonesandsappingstrengthfromemergingeconomies,manyofwhichareheavily
indebted.

Thatisn'tthewayRussiaplannedit.AllbetswereonChina,saidSistemasNadorshin.

Siluanovsaysthegovernmentmustcutspendingorfaceafinancialcrisis

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-must-cut-spending-or-suffer-financial-crash--finance-
minister/555640.html

Russiawillneedtomakecutstogovernmentspendinginresponsetothenewrealitiesofaprolongedperiodoflowoil
prices,FinanceMinisterAntonSiluanovsaidWednesday.

Siluanov,whoseministryreliesontheenergyindustryforabouthalfitsincome,saidthecurrentbudgetfor2016would
needanaverageoilpriceof$82tobalance.Crudeiscurrentlytradingatjustover$30perbarrel.

SpeakingattheGaidarForuminMoscow,Siluanovsaidthebudgetshouldberecalculatedtoassumeanaverageoil
pricefortheyearof$40,theReutersnewsagencyreported.

"Ourtaskistoadaptourbudgettothenewrealities,"Reutersquotedhimassaying."Therearestillalotofdecisionsto
bemadewhenitcomestobudgetpolicy."

Ifwedon'tdothat,wewillseearepeatofwhathappenedin1998-99,"headded,accordingtonewsagencyInterfax,
referringtothegovernmentdefaultandeconomiccrashthatfollowed.

Russiangovernmentdepartmentshavealreadybeenorderedtosubmitproposalsfor10percentcutsinnon-essential
spendingtotalingmorethan500billionrubles($6.5billion),Siluanovsaid.
Thecurrentbudgetfor2016,adoptedlatelastyear,assumesa$50oilpriceandadeficitof3percentofGDP.The
FinanceMinistryinDecemberwarnedthat$40oilwouldinflatethedeficittoaround5percentandexhaustRussia's$59-
billion-dollarreservefundbytheendoftheyear.

Speakingatthesameforum,PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevsaid:"Oneneedstopreparefortheworstscenario,"
accordingtoReuters.

Russia'seconomyisalreadymiredinitslongestrecessionsinceVladimirPutincametopowerin1999.Outputis
expectedtohavecontractedby3.7percentlastyear,andtheCentralBankwarnedinDecemberthatifthepriceofoil
averaged$35in2016theeconomywouldshrinkafurther2-3percentthisyear.

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 01/13/201602:50:24PM
To: swallen@1scom.net
Subject: InternetNotes13January2016
Attachments: IN13Jan16.docx

InternetNotes13January2016

LeonidRadzikhovskiyon2016andaperfectstormintheKremlin

Yakuninsendsawarning?

YakuninturnsdowntheofferofaFederationCouncilseat

StanovayaonYakuninandPutin

Putinsreportedson-in-lawShamalovisRussiaslatestdollarbillionaire

RussiaandEconomicTurmoilinChina

Siluanovsaysthegovernmentmustcutspendingorfaceafinancialcrisis

LeonidRadzikhovskiyon2016andaperfectstormintheKremlin
Comment:Radzikhovskiy,whohasacolumninRossiyaskayaGazeta,wrotethisonefortheUkrainianNovoye
VremyaIveoftennotedthatitwouldtakequitealot,aperfectstormofpoliticalandeconomiccrises,todislodge
PuinfromtheKremlin.Wearentthere,buttheelementsofapotentialstormcouldbetakingshape.Itremainstobe
seewhethertheywillcometogetherattherighttimeintherightway,withthe2016-2018electioncycleapproaching,
butwithUralsgradeoilatnearly$30/barrel(seeyesterdaysnotes)andPutin(inhisBildinterview)tryingtoputa
positivespinonthat,astormfrontdoesappeartobeforming.

http://m.nv.ua/opinion/radzihovsky/idealnyj-shtorm-v-kremle-89925.html

TheKremlinfindsitselfinaperfectstormsituation:thecollapseoftheeconomymeansanimpendingpoliticalcollapseaswell.In
2013-2014,vlastexperiencedaforeignpolicyfailurebiggerthanallthefailuresindomesticpoliticsandeconomics.Vlastfinds
itselftrappedinacorner,withnowayout.

Televisioncantturnaneconomicfailureintoaneconomicbreakthrough:peoplecangotothestoreandseetherealprices,they
cangotoworkandseewhatishappeningtotheirwages.

Meanwhile,televisiontranslatesinternationalisolationintoRussianinfluenceonworldaffairs,thefailureinUkraineasprotectingthe
Donbass,thefailurewithChinaasstrengtheningRussiaspositioninEurasia,theEurasianUnion,whichisgoingnowhere,asa
powerfulalliance.ThephraseRussiaspositionintheworldisstrengtheningisnothingbutacollectionofwords.

Wehavenoallies?Well,tohellwiththem,weareRussians,wewillprevail!...Therehasbeenacatastrophicdeclineinforeign
trade?Wehaveimportsubstitution!...

ThecatastropheforPutiniscomingonatjustthatmomentwhenRussianseyesarebeginningtoperceivereality.Putinwilldo
anythingtopreventthathappeninghewillnotwithdrawfromUkraine,hewillnotmakeanexitfromSyria,thoughnobodylikes
thatidioticadventureWherewearebombing,therewillbepeace,thatsthelogicofofficialpropaganda

IfyoudontbuildacompletelyclosedcountrylikeNorthKoreaandPutindoesntwanttodothatandwillnotdoitunderany
circumstancessoonerorlater,realitywilltakehold.Sothisnextyearwillbeaturningpoint
TheyveplayedtheSyriancardandtherearenonewonestoplayRussiahasnotrumpcardnotineconomics,notinculture,
notintechnology,notinanythingrelatedtosoftpowerInthissituation,theonlythingwehavelefttoplayisclaimsthatour
tanksarefaster,andwhataboutourrockets?Wheretousethem?WecanusethemintheMiddleEast,averyexplosiveregion,
butPutinisveryafraidofthat

SomemindlessPutincriticswritethatVVPintendstousenuclearweaponsagainstSaudiArabia.Inacertainsense,theyareright
atleastinthatasimilarblowwouldbebeneficialtoRussia.Itwouldmeananexplosionontheoilmarketandanexorbitantprice
foroil.OnlyPutinwouldnevertakesuchariskitwouldbearealwar,nottheDonbass,butarealcatastropheAnalliancewith
IrantoattackIsrael,Turkey,orSaudiArabiawouldbeaworldwar.ItwouldmeanthedeathoftheRussianstateandPutinknows
that.
In2016,thesystemiccrisisinRussianvlastwillmoveontoanewstageapartfromirritationwithsocialandeconomicpolicy,
addforeignpolicyWhenitbecomesapparentthattheemperorhasnoclothes,Iwouldntgiveyouthreekopecksforthe
regimescontinuedexistence.Whatwillfollow,whatkindofconsequencestherewillbe,noonecansay

Comment:TheresmoreonRussiaseconomicandfinancialproblemsbelow.

Yakuninsendsawarning?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/a-fallen-russia-oligarch-sends-warning-to-rest-of-putin-insiders

HewasoneofthemostpowerfulmeninRussiaforadecade,anoldpalofthepresidentwhooversawamillion
workersandarailnetworkspanning11timezones.

ButthenVladimirYakuninwassuddenlyout,endingacareerthatincludedastintasanintelligenceofficerat
theUnitedNationsinNewYorkduringtheColdWar.NowYakunin,67,hassomepartingadviceforthe
remainingmembersofwhathedismissedasPutinsso-calledinnercircle:knowyourplace.

Thiscirclewillcontinuetorotate,YakuninsaidinhisprivateofficeinMoscowduringa90-minuteinterview.
PutinhasyettoformastablerulingclasslikeRussiahadduringczaristtimes,theformerheadofstate-
ownedRussianRailwaysJSCsaid.

Thecommentsareararepublicadmissionfromalongtimeinsiderofthefragilityofwealthandinfluenceinthe
opaqueandseeminglyironcladsystemofcontrolPutinhasbuiltover15years.Withthatsystemunder
unprecedentedpressurefromplungingoilpricesandinternationalsanctions,anystepPutintakestomaintain
hisgriponpowerreverberatesfarbeyondMoscow.

BerezovskyWarning

Someinsidersaremakingthemistakeofviewingtheirpropertyandprivilegeasinalienablerights,but
everythingtheyhavehingesonPutinsshiftingviewsofwhatsgoodforRussia,accordingtoYakunin.He
offeredtwoexamplesfromthepresidentsfirsttermtoillustratethedangersofoverreach.

RememberwhathappenedtoBorisBerezovskyandVladimirGusinsky,hesaid,referringtotwopost-Soviet
oligarchswholosttheirfortunestryingtoinfluencePutinsKremlinthewaytheydidBorisYeltsins.

YakuninsdeparturefromtherailmonopolyinAugustwasthebiggestshakeupinyearswithinthenew
politburo,thehighestauthorityundercommunism,andpresagesmoretocome,accordingtoOlga
Kryshtanovskaya,asociologistwhostrackedtheriseofthesecurityservicesunderretiredKGBColonelPutin.

RoughresignationsbyPutinloyalistsarerareandYakuninsrejectionofthecustomarysenateseatas
consolationisevenmoreso,shesaid.

TheU.S.blacklistedYakunininitsinitialroundofsanctionsovertheUkraineconflictinMarch2014forbeing
bothacloseconfidantofPutinandaninfluentialgovernmentofficialRussianRailwayscarriesmorethana
billionpassengersandabilliontonsofcargoayear.

DachaBuddies

YakuninandothermembersofPutinsSt.Petersburgcliqueinthe1990s,includinghischiefofstaffandfellow
formerspySergeiIvanov,constitutetheRussianleadershipsinnercircle,theTreasuryDepartmentsaidat
thetime.
YakuninandPutinwerealsoneighborsintheelitedachacommunityontheshoreofLakeKomsomolskand
theyservedasco-foundersoftheOzeroDachaCooperativeinNovember1996,itsaid.

AnotherOzerofounder,YuriKovalchuk,wasalsoamongthefirst20Russianssanctioned,aswerethreeother
St.PetersburgbusinessmenwhobecamebillionairesafterPutincametopower--GennadyTimchenkoandthe
brothersArkadyandBorisRotenberg.

ThereasonsYakuninwaskickedoutofthisexclusiveclubaredisputed.

BritishPassport

HesayspubliclythedecisiontoresignwashisownandPutinapprovedit,butpeoplefamiliarwiththematter
saidthepresidentfeltbetrayedwhenYakuninseldestsonobtainedcitizenshipfromtheU.K.whenthat
countrywaspenalizingRussiaoverUkraine.

TheKremlinwasawareoftheissueandnobodyobjected,Yakuninsaid.

MysonhaslivedintheU.K.forfiveyearsandhadtherighttoobtaincitizenship,hesaid.Imadenosecretof
thisfromthecountrysleadership.

Putinsspokesman,DmitryPeskov,declinedtocomment.

Kryshtanovskaya,thesociologist,saiditmayhavejustbeenamatterofmismanagementatRussianRailways.
Thecompanyhadbecomebloated,inefficientandplaguedbyaccusationsofcorruption,sonewleadershipwas
needed,especiallywiththeeconomymiredinarecession,shesaid.

SafeguardingWealth

ThemanpickedtoreplaceYakunin,OlegBelozerov,isa46-year-oldlogisticsspecialistanddeputytransport
ministerfromSt.PetersburgwhohaslongstandingtiestotheRotenbergs.Seethe21August2015notes.

EvgenyMinchenko,whorunstheInternationalInstituteforPoliticalExpertiseinMoscow,saidYakuninwas
simplyoutmaneuveredbymoreaggressiveinsiderswhosebusinessinterestswerebeinghamperedbytherail
monopoly.

Whateverthecause,Minchenkosaidonethingisindisputable:PeopleclosetoPutin,whocouldextendhisrule
toaquartercenturyifhewinsre-electionin2018,areincreasinglyfocusedonsafeguardingtheirwealthand
statustopassthemontotheiroffspring.

PutinIn-Law

SomeareevenjoiningPutinsfamily.

KirillShamalov,thesonofNikolayShamalov,anotherco-founderofthedachacooperativecitedbythe
TreasuryDepartment,marriedPutinsyoungestdaughterKaterinain2013andthenbecameatycooninhis
ownright,thanksmainlytoastakeinapetrochemicalcompanyheacquiredfromTimchenkowithfinancing
fromastatebank.

Still,nobodyspositionbutPutinswillbesecureuntilagoverningeliteliketheonethatexistedbeforethe
Bolsheviksswepttopoweracenturyagoisfullyformed,aprocessthatmaytakedecades,accordingto
Yakunin.

TryingtomeasureinfluencebyproximitytopoliticalresourcesisarelicoftheSovietsystem,hesaid.

RegardingYakuninturningdownaFederationCouncilseatandthereasonsforhisdeparture,abitfromthe16September2015
notes:

[YakuninturnsdowntheofferofaFederationCouncilseat

OnYakuninleavinghispostatRussianRailwaysandbeingsetuptotakeaseatintheFederationCouncil,aswellaswhathisdeparturemight
mean,seethe19,20,21,24,27,and31Augustnotes,andthe2,3,and7Septembernotes.Recallthatsomethoughttherewereproblemswith
YakunintakingtheposthedidntliveintheKaliningradregion,wherehewouldbenominated,anddidnotmeettheexceptiontothatrule
(someonecouldbeeligibleiftheyhadservedinadiplomaticpostwiththestatusofambassadorYakuninhadofficiallybeenadiplomat,buthis
statuswasnotofthatrank).ThethoughtwasthathecouldbepartofaspecialpresidentiallistofcandidatesforspotsintheFederation
Council.

http://www.facebook.com/catherine.schulmann/posts/10207858290726146

YakuninhasaskedtheKaliningradgovernornottonominatehim.YekaterinaSchulmanntriestoexplainwhyshesaysthatnobodythought
throughthediplomaticrequirementandthatYakunindiscoveredthataSenatorsseatwouldnotgivehimtheimmunityhehadhopedfor,as
Senatorscanberemovedatanytime.Thereisnoguaranteedtermforthem.Therearentthatmanygoodspotstomovetotheadministrative
machineisexperiencingaperiodofturbulence.Thelawhastobeobservedforappearancessake,butrespectedpeoplehavetobegivenrespect.
Allthisastheresourceloafisshrinking.

Heresmore:

http://www.rferl.org/content/operation-yakunin-goes-off-the-rails/27249927.html

SomethingclearlywentverywrongwithOperationYakunin.AndthisseemstoindicatethatsomethingisnotquiterightwithTeamPutin.

EversinceVladimirYakuninresignedasheadofRussianRailwaysinAugust,Kremlin-watchershavedebatedwhetherthemovewasademotionor
apreludetoanewpoliticalrole.

WasoneofthemostpowerfulandinfluentialmembersofVladimirPutin'sinnercirclebeingkickedofftheisland?Orwashisremovalpartofan
elaborateoperationtoelevatehim?

Weappeartohaveouranswer.

Yakuninannouncedtodaythathewasn'tinterestedinthenewjobtheKremlinhadlinedupforhim:aseatintheFederationCouncil,theupper
chamberofRussia'sparliament,representingKaliningrad.

FewexpectedsomeoneofYakunin'sstature--someonewhohasbeenpersonallyclosetoPutinfordecades--tosettleforbeingarun-of-the-mill
lawmaker.

Initially,pressreportsindicatedthathewouldlikelybenamedtheFederationCouncil'sdeputyspeaker--orperhapsspeaker.Attheveryleasthe
wouldchairanimportantcommittee.

ButKommersantreportedtoday,citingunidentifiedofficials,thatYakuninwouldnotbeamemberoftheFederationCouncil'sleadershipatall.

"MovingVladimirYakunintotheFederationCouncilnowindeedlookslikeanhonorableresignation,andnotthebeginningofhispoliticalcareer,
asitmayhaveseemedinitially,"IlyaKarpyukwroteinPolit.ru.

Andthen,hourslater,Yakuninmadeitclearhewasn'tgoingtofollowthescript.Ratherthanserveasarank-and-filememberoftheFederation
Council,hewouldprefertospendmoretimewithhis...thinktank.

"IhopeIwillbeabletocontinuebeingusefultosocietybyconcentratingonacademicandpublicactivities,primarilyintheareaofinternational
relationsandintercivilizationaldialogue,"Yakuninsaid.

It'shardtolookatallthisandnotcometotheconclusionthatYakuniniseitherleavingorbeingbanishedfromthe"collectivePutin,"thedozenor
soinsiderswhoruleRussia.

Andthatisaverybigdeal.

ThelasttimeanybodyofthisstaturelefttheKremlinleader'sinnersanctumwaswhenAlekseiKudrinresignedasfinanceministerinSeptember
2011.

ThathappenedjustdaysafterPutinannouncedhewouldreturntothepresidency,sparkingtheworstintereliteturbulenceofhisrule.

ItalsohappenedjustmonthsbeforeRussiawitnesseditslargestantigovernmentstreetprotestssincethebreakupoftheSovietUnion.

It'salsohardtonotsuspectthattheYakunindebacleindicatesthattheinformalgoverningmodelthatPutinhasreliedonforhisentirepresidency-
-onebasedonatightgroupofcronies--isinseriousflux,ifnotoutrightcrisis.
Putin'steamhasmasteredtheartofgovernmentbyspets-operatsiya,orcovertops.Significantpersonnelmovesareplannedoutandexecutedwith
militaryprecision.

AndthefactthattheKremlinbotchedthisone--orYakuninwillfullystrayedfromthescript--seemstopointtoaregimethat,despiteoutward
appearancesofomnipotence,isseriouslylosingitsmojo.

Comment:Iwouldntgothatfar.ThedepartureofYakunin,asIwroteinearliernotes,hadbeenfoughtoverforsometime,andhehadlotsof
apparatusopponentswhowantedhimoutatRussianRailways.Therearesomeserioustensionsintheelite,asIvementionedbefore,butthekey
pointhere,Ithink,isthatPutinhasbeenveryirritatedwithsomeoftheheadsofmajorstatecompaniesandtheirhandlingofthoseenterprises
duringthecrisis.Reportedlybothheandthegovernmentareespeciallyirritatedattheconstantrequests(ordemands)forstateaid.Sechin
apparentlygotthemessageandrecentlydroppedRosneftrequestsforNationalWelfareFundmoney.Seethe4Septembernotes.]

Comment:FollowingYakuninsdeparture,VenediktovsaidthatelitesinPutinscircleweretryingtodistance
themselvesfromthepresidentthepointseemedtobethattheysensedthepossibilityofafullscalepoliticalcrisis
andweremovingtoprotectthemselvesandthoseneartothem.IdidntthinkYakuninsdeparturewasasurpriseit
hadbeenalongtimecomingandittookcrisiscircumstancesforPutintoact.Thepointtomakehereisthat,asthe
pieceabovenoted,Yakunin,unlike,say,Cherkesov,didnotactaccordingtothescript(butPutindidnt,either,
accordingtosomeofoursources,inthatYakuninwasnotofferedaleadershippostintheFederationCouncil).Its
interestingthatYakuninbroughtupBerezovskiyandGusinskiy.
TheissueofYakuninssonscitizenshipmayhavebeenanadditionalfactorrecallthatLatyninahassaidthat
ChaykassonhavingofficiallyreceivedforeignresidencydoesnotbodewellfortheProsecutorGeneral(Seethe10
and14December2015notesTherewassomeconfusionoverwhetherArtyomChaykahadappliedforSwiss
residencyorSwisscitizenshipitappearsthatheappliedforresidency).Ofcourse,someofPutinsfriendsandtheir
familymembershaveforeigncitizenship.Inotedtheotherday,forinstance,thatoneoftheRotenbergssonsBoris,
Jr.hadFinnishcitizenship,asdoesRomanRotenberg,ArkadiysnephewandVPoftheRussianHockeyFederation.
Maybeitsthetimingofwhencitizenshipwastakenthatcouldbeafactordoingsoaftertheimpositionofsanctions
mightbethetriggerforPutinsirritation.LatyninanotedthatArtyomChaykaappliedforSwissresidencyafterthe
annexationofCrimea.
StanovayaonYakuninandPutin

ThiswaswrittenbeforetheBloombergarticlehttp://slon.ru/posts/62361

YakuninspathsincehisdeparturefromRussianRailwaysisrevealing,tellingusalotaboutthethinkingandlivesofthePutin
brotherhoodYakuninpreviouslymentionedhiscreatinganewcenter,amentionprimarilydedicatedtoadvertisinghis
foundation(Comment:TheSt.Andreysfoundation,thethinktankreferredtoabove),thatwasitselfasignalthathis
foundationwouldremainevenafterYakuninlosthisRussianRailwayspost

StatusinthePutineliteisnotdeterminedsomuchbyformalpostasbythedistributionofinformalresources,includingproximityto
thepresident.InYakuninscase,PutinwasreportedlyirritatedwithYakuninssonsBritishcitizenshipandwiththescaleofassets
beingdrainedfromRussianRailways
ItslikelythatYakuninwasthinkingaboutwhattodoafterheleftRussianRailwaysoverthelasttwoyears,ashisfatewasin
question.Hesawanoutlineofthatinexpert-scientificactivity.Hehadbeenengagedinadialogueofcivilizations(Comment:
ReferredtoaboveinconnectionwithYakuninsthinktank)ontwoplatformshisDialogueofCivilizationsinternational
forumandintheFranco-RussianDialoguewhichheco-chairedwithamemberoftheFrenchNationalAssembly.ButYakunin
sawhimselfinabiggerrolehisdreamwastobecomeasortofinformalminsterofforeignaffairs,apersonwiththehistorical
missionofestablishingdialoguewithRussiasfriendsaroundtheworld.Hisministrywouldbehisownanalyticalcenter,onethat
wouldofferproposalsforloweringtensionsintheworld.
YakuninisofferinghisservicestoPutin.Heistakinguponhimselftheroleofdove,confirmingthehypothesisthatthe
presidentsbusinessentourageisnotinterestedinconfrontationwiththeWest.Finally,nomatterhowmuchPutinmightbe
disappointedwithhiscomradesandhowmuchtheybedisappointedintheirprospectsforeternallypreservingtheirlucrative
placesinthesystem,nothingcouldpitthemoneagainsttheother(Comment:IwonderwhatStanovayamakesofthe
Bloombergpiece)
YakuninisdoingwhatKudrindidafterhelosthisgovernmentpost.Kudrinwantedtobethemediatorbetweenthepresidentand
the2011-2012protestors.YakuninwantstobethemediatorbetweenPutinandtheWest.Hellbedistrusted,asKudrinwas,
especiallyinEurope,taggedasaPutinagent.Sohisprospectsseemprettynarrowthosewhomightengagewithhisnewcenter
willlikelybethosewhostandtobenefitfromarelationshipwiththeRussianpoliticalandbusinesselite.
YakuninscentercouldinvolveitselfwiththeMinskContactGroupYakuninhaspreviouslycooperatedwithBorisGryzlov,who
hasbeendesignatedRussiasrepresentativetotheContactGroup(Seethe8Januarynotes).Yakuninscentercould,forexample,
comeupwithadraftUkrainianconstitution,whichwouldneverbetakenseriously,butcouldbeusedtodefendRussianpositions
ontheDonbass.
NeitherYakuninnorKudrinhaveanofficialspotinthesystem.Nevertheless,Kudrinisconsideredamemberoftheteam
TheboundariesbetweenstateandpublicorganizationsheadedbyPutincomradesaregraduallybeingobliterated.Thestate
anditsinstitutionsaredissolvingintoasystemofinformaltieswhicharenotcapableofreplacingstateadministration.Thesplitting
upoftheverticalisoneofthemostinterestingprocessinlate-PutineraRussia.
Comment:Yakuninhasshownaninterestingeo-politics,Russiasroleintheworld,andOrthodoxChurchmattersfor
alongtime.HeisknownasanOrthodoxChekistinPutinscircle.Itstruethathisintentionmayhavebeento
parallelKudrinasamemberoftheteamoutsidetheformalchannelsofvlast,butthefirstarticlesuggeststhathis
offeringhisservicesinthatrolehasbeenrebuffed.Why?WhywasKudrinacceptedinsucharoleandYakunin
apparentlynot?DidithavesomethingtodowithmismanagementandcorruptionatRussianRailwaysduringthe
crisis?DidPutinseeYakuninasoneofthosecomplicatingmattersfortheKremlininthemiddleofaneconomiccrisis?
Inthatcontext,maybeYakuninsofferdidntlooktooattractivetoPutin,whohasusuallytakencareofhisfriendswith
somekindofsinecure.ThefactthatYakuninwasnotapparentlyofferedanimportantpostinFederationCouncilmay
indicatethatPutinwassouronhimbeforeYakuninsproposal.ItistruethatKudrinalsoappearedtostepintoa
sensitiveareainofferinghisservicesduringtheprotestwaveandIwonderedabouthowmuchdistrustPutinmight
haveforhimsubsequently.ButmaybePutinfiguredhemightneedKudrinsexpertiseatsomepoint.
Putinsreportedson-in-lawShamalovisRussiaslatestdollarbillionaire
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-alleged-son-in-law-is-russias-latest-billionaire--
forbes/555639.html

ThemanreportedtobeRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sson-in-lawhasbecomethecountry'slatestdollarbillionaire,
theRussianversionofForbesmagazinereportedonTuesday.

KirillShamalov,33,whoaccordingtotheReutersnewsagencyisthehusbandofPutin'sdaughterKaterinaTikhonova,
swelledhisfortuneto$1.2billionfollowingthesaleofastakeingasandpetrochemicalcompanySiburtoChina's
SinopecinDecember,Forbessaid.Shamalovhada21percentstakeinSiburbeforethesale,accordingtoForbes.See
the21Decembernotes.

HedidnotcommenttoForbesonthefigures.

ShamalovistheyoungestsonofNikolaiShamalov,alongtimefriendofPutin'sandshareholderinBankRossiya,which
U.S.officialshavedescribedasthepersonalbankoftheRussianelite.

AReutersreportlastyearidentifiedTikhonovaasPutin'sdaughterandclaimedthatsheandShamalovtogetherowned
assetsworthabout$2billionincludingamulti-million-dollarvillainFrance.

RussiaandEconomicTurmoilinChina

Seeyesterdaysnotes.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/chinas-economic-turmoil-ruins-russias-new-year/555714.html

NewfearsoverChinaseconomyandsharpfallsinthepriceofoilhaveworsenedtheoutlookforRussiaasittriesto
emergefromrecession.

Thepriceofcrude,thelinchpinofRussiaseconomy,fellalmost20percentinthefirsttwoweeksofJanuarytojustabove
$30perbarrelafterChinesestockindexestumbledmorethan10percentinthefirstdaysoftheyear.

WhiletheoilpricefallsthreatenedtoderailhopesforaneconomicrecoveryinRussia,theturmoilonthestockmarkets
deepenedfearsthatChineseeconomicgrowth,whichhaspoweredcommoditypricesandtheglobaleconomy,could
declinefasterthanexpected.ThismayhaveseriousconsequencesforMoscowkeepingthepriceofcommodities
lowerforlongerandweakeningastrategictradepartner.
ForRussia,thisisveryunpleasantnews,saidYevgenyNadorshin,chiefeconomistatAFKSistema,amajorRussian
conglomerate.

Astheoilpriceplunged,Russiasworstcasescenarioappearedtobecomingtrue.Therublefollowedtheoilprice
downward,weakening4percentinthefirsttwoweeksofJanuarytoaround76.5againsttheU.S.dollarnearitslowest
sincethecrisisof1998andlessthanhalfitsvaluetwoyearsago.

FinanceMinisterAntonSiluanovsaidattheGaidarForuminMoscowthathisbudget,whichreceivesaroundhalfits
revenuesfromtheenergyindustry,wouldbalanceonlyat$82perbarrel,accordingtotheReutersnewsagency.
Predictinganaverageoilpriceof$40fortheyear,hesaidthebudgetmustadapttonewrealitiesorRussiawouldseea
repeatofthedisastrousfinancialcrisisof1998-99.FormoreonSiluanov,seetheitembelow.

Healsosaidgovernmentdepartmentsweredrawingup10percentspendingcutsinnon-protectedareas.

Alreadyinitslongestrecessionsincethe1990saftershrinkinganestimated3.7percentlastyear,theeconomycould
contractbyanother2-3percentin2016ifoilpricesaverage$35perbarrel,theCentralBanksaidinDecember,whilethe
budgetdeficitwouldexpandandcurrencyreservesdepleted.

AsurveybystatepollsterVTsIOMpublishedinearlyJanuaryfoundthatmorethanhalfofRussians52percent
thoughtthehardesttimesforthecountrywereyettocome.

StockmarketvolatilityinChinasuggeststhattheycouldberight.Chinaseconomyhasbeenthemaindriverofglobal
demandforcommodities,andaslowingofChinesegrowthwouldexacerbatethepriceslump.

AWorldBankreportinearlyJanuarysaidaone-percentfallinChinasgrowthratewouldreducethevalueofcommodities
byaround6percentovertwoyears,andwarnedofaprotractedperiodoflowcommoditypricesincomingyears.

Oversupplyhasalreadysharplyloweredthecostofoil,gasandmetals,ofwhichRussiaisalsoamajorproducer.Energy
pricesfellby41percentlastyearandindustrialmetalsby24percent,accordingtotheS&PGoldmanSachsCommodity
Index.

AnotherthreattopricesisifChinamovestostimulateitseconomy.MorganStanleysaidinaJanuaryreportthatarapid
devaluationoftheChinesecurrencydesignedtoboostitsexportscouldsendoilintothe$20s[perbarrel]itslowest
in15years.

Ontopofthat,astrengtheningU.S.dollarispushingdownpricesbymakingitmoreexpensiveforthoseusingother
currenciestobuydollar-tradedcommodities.

Themovementofthesetwocurrenciesismutuallyreinforcing,MorganStanleysaidaweakerChineseeconomy
encouragesflighttothedollar,whileastrongerdollarincreasesthetemptationforChinesepolicymakerstodevalue.

PresidentVladimirPutininaninterviewwithGermanysBildnewspaperinearlyJanuarytriedtocastcommoditieslow
pricesasablessingindisguise,sayingthatwhenoilpriceswerehighitwasverydifficultforustoresistspendingoil
revenuestocovercurrentexpenses,andthenewrealitywouldbeanincentivetorebalancetheeconomy.

Butalackofavailableinvestmentcapitalhasstifleddiversification.Andamidaslumpinincomesandconsumer
spending,Russiascommoditiessectorisoneofthefewmajorindustriestobefaringrelativelywell,analystssaid.

Theweakrublehasallowedenergy,metalsandminingcompanies,whichearnexportrevenuesindollars,tomaintain
incomesinrubleterms.Meanwhile,Russianproducershavebecomemuchmorecompetitiveonglobalmarketsthanks
tohugefallsinthecostoflaborthathaveloweredproductioncosts.
ThecostoflaborinRussiahasfallentorivalthatofChina,saidValeryMironov,deputydirectoroftheCenterof
DevelopmentattheHigherSchoolofEconomics,aMoscowuniversity.

However,newinvestmentinproductionhasbeenlimitedbysanctionsandtherecessionathome.Andifpricesremain
lowforanextendedperiodoftime,evenRussiancompanieswillbeforcedtoretrench,analystssaid.

Inthelongerterm,worriesoverChinesegrowthalsostrikeRussianinterestsinadeeperway,knockingconfidencein
ChinaasafinancialallyforMoscow.

FollowingabreakdowninrelationswiththeWestfollowingRussiasannexationofCrimeain2014andmorerecently
withTurkeyovertheshootingdownofaRussianwarplaneontheTurkish-SyrianborderMoscowhaslookedtobuild
relationswithdynamicemergingmarkets,particularlywithChina.

HopesofafloodofChinesecapitalintoRussiafailedtomaterializefollowingtheUkrainecrisis,butthelonger-termaimof
hitchingRussiatoeast-Asiangrowthremained.

Thatdecisionnowlooksincreasinglyflawed,saidNeilShearing,chiefemergingmarketseconomistatCapital
Economics.Russiaspivottotheeastandhopethatdevelopingnationswouldbecometheengineofglobalgrowthhave
beenunderminedbyrecentevents,hesaid.

Afull-blowncrisisisunlikelythankstoChinasmassiveforeignexchangereserves.ButincreasingfearsoflowerChinese
growtharecomingastheUnitedStatesbeginstoliftinterestrates,fuelingamassivereallocationofcapitalfrom
emergingmarketstodevelopedonesandsappingstrengthfromemergingeconomies,manyofwhichareheavily
indebted.

Thatisn'tthewayRussiaplannedit.AllbetswereonChina,saidSistemasNadorshin.

Siluanovsaysthegovernmentmustcutspendingorfaceafinancialcrisis

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-must-cut-spending-or-suffer-financial-crash--finance-
minister/555640.html

Russiawillneedtomakecutstogovernmentspendinginresponsetothenewrealitiesofaprolongedperiodoflowoil
prices,FinanceMinisterAntonSiluanovsaidWednesday.

Siluanov,whoseministryreliesontheenergyindustryforabouthalfitsincome,saidthecurrentbudgetfor2016would
needanaverageoilpriceof$82tobalance.Crudeiscurrentlytradingatjustover$30perbarrel.

SpeakingattheGaidarForuminMoscow,Siluanovsaidthebudgetshouldberecalculatedtoassumeanaverageoil
pricefortheyearof$40,theReutersnewsagencyreported.

"Ourtaskistoadaptourbudgettothenewrealities,"Reutersquotedhimassaying."Therearestillalotofdecisionsto
bemadewhenitcomestobudgetpolicy."

Ifwedon'tdothat,wewillseearepeatofwhathappenedin1998-99,"headded,accordingtonewsagencyInterfax,
referringtothegovernmentdefaultandeconomiccrashthatfollowed.

Russiangovernmentdepartmentshavealreadybeenorderedtosubmitproposalsfor10percentcutsinnon-essential
spendingtotalingmorethan500billionrubles($6.5billion),Siluanovsaid.
Thecurrentbudgetfor2016,adoptedlatelastyear,assumesa$50oilpriceandadeficitof3percentofGDP.The
FinanceMinistryinDecemberwarnedthat$40oilwouldinflatethedeficittoaround5percentandexhaustRussia's$59-
billion-dollarreservefundbytheendoftheyear.

Speakingatthesameforum,PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevsaid:"Oneneedstopreparefortheworstscenario,"
accordingtoReuters.

Russia'seconomyisalreadymiredinitslongestrecessionsinceVladimirPutincametopowerin1999.Outputis
expectedtohavecontractedby3.7percentlastyear,andtheCentralBankwarnedinDecemberthatifthepriceofoil
averaged$35in2016theeconomywouldshrinkafurther2-3percentthisyear.

From: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Senttime: 01/10/201609:23:30AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:IsFascismBack?byRobertO.Paxton-ProjectSyndicate

Thanks.I'llreadthearticle,butinmyviewtheanswerisNo.

OnSunday,January10,20167:40AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/is-fascism-back-by-robert-o--paxton-2016-01

IsFascismBack?
NEWYORKIn2015,fascismonceagainbecamethehighest-octanepoliticalepithetingeneraluse.Of
course,thetemptationtoapplythefascismlabelisalmostoverwhelmingwhenweconfrontlanguageand
behaviorthatsuperficiallyresemblesthatofHitlerandMussolini.Atthemoment,itisbeingwidelyappliedto
casesasdisparateasDonaldTrump,theTeaParty,theNationalFrontinFrance,andradicalIslamist
assassins.But,thoughthetemptationtocallsuchactorsfascistisunderstandable,itshouldberesisted.
Atitscreationinthe1920s(firstinItalyandtheninGermany),fascismwasaviolentreactionagainsta
perceivedexcessofindividualism.ItalywasscornedandGermanywasdefeatedinWorldWarI,Mussoliniand
Hitlerclaimed,becausedemocracyandindividualismhadsappedthemofnationalunityandwill.
Sothetwoleadersputtheirfollowersintouniformsandtriedtoregimenttheirthoughtsandactions.Oncein
power,theytriedtoextenddictatorshiptoeverycorneroflife.Evensports,underMussolini,weretobe
organizedandsupervisedbythestateagencycalledilDopolavoro.
Thefascistssetthemselvesup(andacquiredelitesupport)astheonlyeffectivebarriertotheotherpolitical
movementthatsurgedfollowingWorldWarI:Communism.Tointernationalsocialismthefascistsopposeda
nationalsocialism,andwhiletheycrushedsocialistpartiesandabolishedindependentlaborunions,theynever
foramomentquestionedthestatesobligationtomaintainsocialwelfare(exceptforinternalenemiessuchas
Jews,ofcourse).
ThemovementthatcallsitselftheIslamicStatemayseemtofitthistemplateratherwell.Itsfollowerswillsand
personalidentitiesaresubordinatedtothemovement,allthewaytotheultimateself-abnegation:suicide.But
therearefundamentaldifferencesaswell.
TheIslamicStateislessastatethanawould-becaliphate,devotedtothesupremacyofareligioninawaythat
cutsacrossandeventhreatensexistingnation-states.Centralauthorityremainsinconspicuous,andpolicyand
operationalinitiativeisdispersedtolocalcells,withouttheneedforageographiccore.
Thefascistswerenationalists,rootedinnation-statesanddevotedtothestrengtheningandaggrandizementof
thosestates.Thefascistleadersandregimesdidtheirbesttosubordinatereligiontostatepurposes.Atmost,
wemightidentifyintheIslamicStateasub-speciesofreligioustotalitarianismbutitisfundamentallydistinct
fromclassicalfascismscentralizedseculardictatorshipsandglamorizedleaders.
TheTeaPartyisatthefarthestremovefromfascismsstate-enhancingnature.Withitsoppositiontoallformsof
publicauthorityanditsfuriousrejectionofanyobligationtoothers,itisbettercalledright-winganarchism.Itis
individualismrunamok,adenialofanycommunityobligations,theveryoppositeofafascistappealtothe
supremacyofcommunalobligationsoverindividualautonomy.
TheNationalFront,ofcourse,haditsrootsinVichyFrance,anditsfounder,Jean-MarieLePen,long
expressedcontemptfortheFrenchrepublicantradition.ButitsemergingsuccessnowadaysunderLePens
daughter,Marine,isatleastpartlyduetothepartysefforttodistanceitselffromitsstreet-fighting,Holocaust-
denyingpast.

DonaldTrumpisaspecialcasealtogether.Superficially,heseemstohaveborrowedanumberoffascistthemes
forhispresidentialcampaign:xenophobia,racialprejudice,fearofnationalweaknessanddecline,
aggressivenessinforeignpolicy,areadinesstosuspendtheruleoflawtodealwithsupposedemergencies.His
hectoringtone,masteryofcrowds,andtheskillwithwhichheusesthelatestcommunicationstechnologiesalso
arereminiscentofMussoliniandHitler.

Andyetthesequalitiesareatmostderivativeoffascistthemesandstylestheunderlyingideologicalsubstance
isverydifferent,withtheentitlementsofwealthplayingagreaterrolethanfascistregimesgenerallytolerated.
Trumpsembraceofthesethemesandstylesismostlikelyamatteroftacticalexpediencyadecisiontaken
withlittleornothoughtabouttheiruglyhistory.Trumpisevidentlyaltogetherinsensitivetotheechoeshiswords
andoratoricalstyleevoke,whichshouldnotbesurprising,givenhisapparentinsensitivitytotheimpactofevery
otherinsultthathehurls.
Itistoobadthatwehavesofarbeenunabletofurnishanotherlabelwiththetoxicpoweroffascismforthese
abhorrentpeopleandmovements.Wewillhavetomakedowithmoreordinarywords:religiousfanaticismfor
theIslamicState,reactionaryanarchismfortheTeaParty,andself-indulgentdemagogueryonbehalfof
oligarchyforDonaldTrump.Therearefringemovementstoday,suchasAryanNationsintheUnitedStatesand
GoldenDawninGreece,thatdrawopenlyuponNazisymbolismandemployphysicalviolence.Theterm
fascistisbetterlefttothem.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/10/201604:40:37AM
To: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
BCc: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
Subject: IsFascismBack?byRobertO.Paxton-ProjectSyndicate

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/is-fascism-back-by-robert-o--paxton-2016-01

IsFascismBack?
NEWYORKIn2015,fascismonceagainbecamethehighest-octanepoliticalepithetingeneraluse.Ofcourse,the
temptationtoapplythefascismlabelisalmostoverwhelmingwhenweconfrontlanguageandbehaviorthatsuperficially
resemblesthatofHitlerandMussolini.Atthemoment,itisbeingwidelyappliedtocasesasdisparateasDonaldTrump,the
TeaParty,theNationalFrontinFrance,andradicalIslamistassassins.But,thoughthetemptationtocallsuchactors
fascistisunderstandable,itshouldberesisted.

Atitscreationinthe1920s(firstinItalyandtheninGermany),fascismwasaviolentreactionagainstaperceivedexcessof
individualism.ItalywasscornedandGermanywasdefeatedinWorldWarI,MussoliniandHitlerclaimed,because
democracyandindividualismhadsappedthemofnationalunityandwill.

Sothetwoleadersputtheirfollowersintouniformsandtriedtoregimenttheirthoughtsandactions.Onceinpower,they
triedtoextenddictatorshiptoeverycorneroflife.Evensports,underMussolini,weretobeorganizedandsupervisedby
thestateagencycalledilDopolavoro.

Thefascistssetthemselvesup(andacquiredelitesupport)astheonlyeffectivebarriertotheotherpoliticalmovementthat
surgedfollowingWorldWarI:Communism.Tointernationalsocialismthefascistsopposedanationalsocialism,andwhile
theycrushedsocialistpartiesandabolishedindependentlaborunions,theyneverforamomentquestionedthestates
obligationtomaintainsocialwelfare(exceptforinternalenemiessuchasJews,ofcourse).

ThemovementthatcallsitselftheIslamicStatemayseemtofitthistemplateratherwell.Itsfollowerswillsandpersonal
identitiesaresubordinatedtothemovement,allthewaytotheultimateself-abnegation:suicide.Buttherearefundamental
differencesaswell.

TheIslamicStateislessastatethanawould-becaliphate,devotedtothesupremacyofareligioninawaythatcutsacross
andeventhreatensexistingnation-states.Centralauthorityremainsinconspicuous,andpolicyandoperationalinitiativeis
dispersedtolocalcells,withouttheneedforageographiccore.

Thefascistswerenationalists,rootedinnation-statesanddevotedtothestrengtheningandaggrandizementofthosestates.
Thefascistleadersandregimesdidtheirbesttosubordinatereligiontostatepurposes.Atmost,wemightidentifyinthe
IslamicStateasub-speciesofreligioustotalitarianismbutitisfundamentallydistinctfromclassicalfascismscentralized
seculardictatorshipsandglamorizedleaders.

TheTeaPartyisatthefarthestremovefromfascismsstate-enhancingnature.Withitsoppositiontoallformsofpublic
authorityanditsfuriousrejectionofanyobligationtoothers,itisbettercalledright-winganarchism.Itisindividualismrun
amok,adenialofanycommunityobligations,theveryoppositeofafascistappealtothesupremacyofcommunal
obligationsoverindividualautonomy.

TheNationalFront,ofcourse,haditsrootsinVichyFrance,anditsfounder,Jean-MarieLePen,longexpressedcontempt
fortheFrenchrepublicantradition.ButitsemergingsuccessnowadaysunderLePensdaughter,Marine,isatleastpartly
duetothepartysefforttodistanceitselffromitsstreet-fighting,Holocaust-denyingpast.

DonaldTrumpisaspecialcasealtogether.Superficially,heseemstohaveborrowedanumberoffascistthemesforhis
presidentialcampaign:xenophobia,racialprejudice,fearofnationalweaknessanddecline,aggressivenessinforeignpolicy,
areadinesstosuspendtheruleoflawtodealwithsupposedemergencies.Hishectoringtone,masteryofcrowds,andthe
skillwithwhichheusesthelatestcommunicationstechnologiesalsoarereminiscentofMussoliniandHitler.

Andyetthesequalitiesareatmostderivativeoffascistthemesandstylestheunderlyingideologicalsubstanceisvery
different,withtheentitlementsofwealthplayingagreaterrolethanfascistregimesgenerallytolerated.Trumpsembraceof
thesethemesandstylesismostlikelyamatteroftacticalexpediencyadecisiontakenwithlittleornothoughtabouttheir
uglyhistory.Trumpisevidentlyaltogetherinsensitivetotheechoeshiswordsandoratoricalstyleevoke,whichshouldnot
besurprising,givenhisapparentinsensitivitytotheimpactofeveryotherinsultthathehurls.

Itistoobadthatwehavesofarbeenunabletofurnishanotherlabelwiththetoxicpoweroffascismfortheseabhorrent
peopleandmovements.Wewillhavetomakedowithmoreordinarywords:religiousfanaticismfortheIslamicState,
reactionaryanarchismfortheTeaParty,andself-indulgentdemagogueryonbehalfofoligarchyforDonaldTrump.There
arefringemovementstoday,suchasAryanNationsintheUnitedStatesandGoldenDawninGreece,thatdrawopenly
uponNazisymbolismandemployphysicalviolence.Thetermfascistisbetterlefttothem.
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 01/08/201612:51:43PM
To: kbk1267<kbk1267@gmail.com>
Subject: Apple's(AAPL)AsianMiracleWon'tMaterialize,SoYouShouldSelltheStock-TheStreet

Apple'sAsianMiracleWon'tMaterialize,SoYou
ShouldSelltheStock

Correction:ThisarticlehasbeenupdatedtoshowthattheNikkeiAsianReviewreportedthattalkswith
ApplesuppliersindicateiPhoneproductionwillbecutbyabout30%inthecurrentquarter.

DistractedbythelevitationactsofAmazon,Alphabet,Facebook,MicrosoftandNetflix,investorshave
leftApple(AAPL-GetReport)forgotteninacorner.Apple'slatestearningsreportwaspositive,butthere's
averyseriousreasontobeconcernedaboutthisstock:iPhonesalesgrowth.

Appleisacomplicatedcompanywithlotsofmovingparts.Thisgivesinvestorstheopportunitytofocuson
manydifferentareasofitsbusiness.ApopulartopiciswhetherAppleshouldrepatriateitscash.Everyone
lovesarguingthenumbersandhowarepatriationwillaffectthestockprice.Althoughit'sfuntotalkabout,
FoundationInvestingunderstandsthatit'snotimportant.It'snotwhatactuallymovesthestockprice.

STOCKSTOBUY:TheStreet'sStocksUnder$10hasidentifiedahandfulofstockswithserious
upsidepotential.SeethemFREEfor14-days.

Investorsshouldfocusonlyonkeydrivers.Akeydriveristheonemetricthatovershadowsallother
metrics.It'swhatWallStreetpaysthemostattentionto.Astock'spricewillchangeinlinewithhowthat
metricchanges.

MustRead:These5BigBreakoutsAreBeating2016'sSlump:Must-SeeCharts

Forexample,permabearslovetorantabouthowridiculousAmazon'sprice-to-earningsratiois.Butindoing
so,theyfailtorealizehowthegrowthofAmazonWebServicestrumpsthatP/Eratio.AWSresultshave
excitedandexceededinvestor'sexpectationstimeandtimeagain.Theseresultsarewhatpropelthestock
price.WallStreetdoesn'tcareabouttheP/Eratiorightnow.AWSgrowthisthekeydriver.

InApple'scase,WallStreethasidentifiediPhonesalesasitskeydriver.Morespecifically,thefocusison
iPhonesalesinChinaandIndia.

It'snothardtofigureoutwhyiPhonesalesmattersomuch.Justtakealookatthesalesbreakdownfrom
Apple'smostrecentearningsreport:

CourtesyofApple

Initsfiscal2015fourthquarter,Applerecorded$51.5billioninrevenue.Ofthat,$32.2billioncamefrom
justiPhonesales.ThatmeanstheiPhonemakesupmorethan60%ofApple'srevenue!Everythingelsein
Apple'swarchestisminisculecomparedtoiPhonesales.SowheninvestorsthinkiPhonesalesareslowing
down,theygetnervous.

Takingacloserlookatthesenumbersshowsthatthesmartphonemarketismaturing.Almosteveryonein
thedevelopedworldwhowantsaniPhonealreadyhasone.There'snotmuchpotentialgrowthleft.Revenue
inthefiscalfourthquarterfortheAmericas,EuropeandJapanwasalmostthesameasitwasintheyear-
earlierquarter.

TheonlyrealgrowthavailableisinChina.Asseenabove,revenuefromChinaincreasedby99%yearover
yearinthelastquarter.Thisismultiplesofthegrowthrateofanyotheroperatingsegment.

ThechartbelowgivesfurtherinsightintohowChina'srevenuegrowthhasincreasedtodominateother
regions.

CourtesyofJackdawResearch

STOCKSTOBUY:TheStreet'sStocksUnder$10hasidentifiedahandfulofstockswithserious
upsidepotential.SeethemFREEfor14-days.

ApplebullsaredependingonChinatodrivefuturegrowth.TheyhopeitwillkeepAppleonitsepicruntoa
trillion-dollarmarketcap.

MustRead:5StocksUnder$10SettoSoar

Butweseelargeproblemswiththisnarrative.ThemacroeconomicpictureforChinahasn'tbeentherosiest
asoflate.Andthingsdon'tappeartobeimproving.ItwillbedifficultforChinatomeetsalesexpectationsin
thistypeofenvironment.

China'seconomicgrowthiscoolingbecauseitsdebtisreachinganunsustainablelevel.Debtiswhatfueled
muchoftheChineseeconomy'sincredibleriseinthelastfourtofiveyears.

China'sdebt-to-GDPisnowwellabove200%.ThisdebtloadactsasadeflationaryforceontheChinese
economy.Institutionsstruggletoservicetheirgrowingdebtcostsasdefaultsandnonperformingloansrise.In
response,theChinesegovernmenthasnochoicebuttoweakenitscurrency.

Whathasbeenborrowed,mustberepaid--ordevaluedaway.Andinsteadofrepaying,governmentsalmost
alwayschoosetodevalue.Chinaisnoexception.Aweakeryuanmakesiteasiertoservicedebtloads.Italso
stimulatesexportdemandbymakingChinesegoodscheaperintheglobalmarketplace.ThisRenminbi
Devaluationarticleoutlinesthemechanicsbehindthisnecessarydevaluation.
Belowisachartofthedollarvs.theyuan.Youcanseethatthedevaluationhasalreadystarted.The
People'sBankofChinahasbeguntoadjustitspegagainstthegreenbacktomakeitscurrencycheaper.

USDollartoChineseYuanExchangeRatedatabyYCharts

ThemacrodynamicsinChinaareamajorthreattoApple'sAsiangrowthstory.Theweakertheyuangets,
themoreexpensiveitbecomesforaChinesecitizentobuyaniPhone.ImaginewalkingintoaChineseApple
storeinthemidstofaneconomicslowdown.You'realreadystrugglingandnowontopofthatyouseeprices
(inyuan)rise!HowareyougoingtoaffordthatnewiPhone?

IndiaisagoodprecursorofwhatwillhappeninChina.IndiahasseenlukewarmiPhonesalesduetosimilar
foreign-exchangeheadwinds.

iPhonesinIndiaarecurrentlysellingbetween62,000and92,000rupeesdependingonthemodel.Thisis
8,500to9,500rupeesmorethanlastyear'slaunchprice.Thisisnotonlyduetoexchangerates,butalso
becausethetaxesonimportedsmartphoneshaveincreased.Itcosts11.5%moreintaxestobuyanimported
smartphonethisyearthanlastyear.

RetailstoresinIndiaareconfirminglacklusterdemandduetothesehigherprices.Somestoresaresaying
demandfortheiPhoneisonly10%-20%ofwhatitwaslastyear.Thestorescontinuetopileuptheir
inventoryinthesepoorconditions.

WithpessimisticdemandforiPhonesalesoverseas,theChina/Asiangrowthnarrativeisn'tstrikingachord
withinvestors.Analystscontinuetolowertheirestimatesforthenextearningsreport.ManyApplesuppliers
havealsocomeoutandguidedrevenuedownfornextquarter.AnalystsatMorganStanley,Raymond
James,BairdEquityResearch,andBankofAmerica,allcuttheirestimatesforiPhoneshipments.They
citedreductionsinbuildratesatAsiansuppliersasthereason.ArecentreportfromNikkeiAsianReview
alsosaidthattalkswithApplesuppliersindicatedthatiPhoneproductionwouldbecutbyabout30%inthe
currentquartercomparedwithApple'soriginalplans.Noneofthisisgoodnewsforacompanydependent
onitssmartphonesales.

OutsideoftheiPhone,Applehasn'tdonemuchwithitsproductstoexciteinvestors.Ithasthemeansand
cashtocreatesomethingground-breaking,butinsteadpreferstositonitsheels.Sincemid-2012,Applehas
revertedtoIBM'sstrategyofsharebuybacks.Howcreative....

AAPLAverageDilutedSharesOutstanding(Quarterly)databyYCharts

Managementhasashottorevivethemagicwithsomethingnewandexciting.Butuntilitchoosestotake
action,webelieveApple'sgrowthnarrativeisdead.InvestorswillcontinuetopassuponApple.Theywill
insteadhoponthemomentumtrainsofFacebook,Amazon,Netflix,MicrosoftandAlphabet.Those
companies'growthstoriesarefarmorepromising.

ThesheersizeofApple'smarketcapalsodamagesitsgrowthstory.It'salreadysobigthatfurtherlarge
gainsdon'tseemlikely.
AAPLMarketCapdatabyYCharts

Ontopofthat,Appleisalsooneofthemostwidelyownedstocksbyhedgefunds.It'sconsidereda"hedge
fundhotel."

Doyouknowwhathappenswhenthere'safireinahotel?Yougetabunchofguestsallrushingfortheexits
atthesametime,tramplingovereachother.

Ontheslightesthintofbadnewsorso-soperformance,thesehedgefundswillpulloutofApplefast.And
wheneveryoneissellinglikethere'snotomorrow,yougethugedropsinprice.

TheValeantmessisagreatexampleofwhatcanhappentoahedgefundhotel.Thedrawdownsareswift
andvicious.

IfyoutakealookatApple'spriceactionbelow,you'llseethetoppingprocessisalreadyplayingout.Ifyou
drawahorizontallineataround$105,itmarkssupportextendingbackmorethanayear.Thestockrecently
brokethroughthatline.Itwillonlydropfurtherfromhereasinvestorsstampedeoutofthestock.
AAPLdatabyYCharts

UntilApplemanagementfindssomethingnewtocaptivateWallStreet,webelievetheupsideforAppleis
limited.InvestorsshouldexitandcomebackwhenCookandthegangdecideto"cookup"somethingmore
meaningfulwiththeirwarchest.

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 01/08/201608:31:24AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:Trump'sindefensibleremarksaboutVladimirPutin

From:paulroderickgregory[mailto:pgregory@stanford.edu]
Sent:Friday,January08,20163:59AM
To:EricThomasWakin
Subject:Trump'sindefensibleremarksaboutVladimirPutin

DearAll:

OthershavewrittenaboutTrump'sremarksaboutPutin.Ithinkthatthislistofparticularsisimportant.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/01/08/sevenwarningstodonaldtrumpaboutvladimirputin/

Forbes Welcome
www.forbes.com

Forbes Welcome page Forbes is a global media company, focusing on business, investing, technology,
entrepreneurship, leadership, and lifestyle.

From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/25/201509:07:45AM
To: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
Subject: RussiaandtheWest:NoEasyWayForwardinNewYear-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace

RussiaandtheWest:NoEasyWayForwardin
NewYear
Thisyearhasseena"newnormal"inrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWest:systemicconflictwithsmall
andoccasionalexamplesofcooperation.Comparedto2014,theyearoftheCrimeancrisis,warineastern
Ukraine,thetragicdowningofMH-17,WesternsanctionsagainstRussiaandacutedisputesoverSyria,2015
wasatleastasomewhatpositiveyear.ItstartedwithMinsk-IItalks,whichallowedtoreduceviolencein
Donbas,endedwithRussia,theUSandsomekeyEuropeanpowerstryingtofindmodusvivendiinSyria,
anddeliveredadealoverIraniannuclearprogram.Isitthenjustifiedtoexpectthatwemayseegradual
improvementofRussian-Westernrelations?Hardlyso.Asoberviewontheunderlyingissuesandonthe
politicalcalendarrequiresustoexpectanewlow.

Firstofall,therootsofconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWesthavenotbeenaddressed.Thegapof
mutualperceptionsiswidening.RussiaisseenbymostpolicymakersintheUSandEUasarevisionist
power,whichseekstochallengetheexistinginternationalnormsandunderminetheWesternprinciples.The
country'sleader,PresidentVladimirPutin,isportrayedasacowardlydictator,suppressingcivilrightsat
homeanddestabilizingRussia'sneighborsthroughhybridwarfare.IntheinternationaldomaintheKremlinis
supportingtheregimeofBasharal-Assad,whichisseenbytheWestasthecauseofprolongedconflictin
Syria.

InRussia,theUSisseenasaplayertryingallmeanstomaintainitsfadingglobaldominanceandcreating
problemsforrisingpowerslikeRussiaorChinathrough"colorrevolutions"andcreatingchaosintheMiddle
East.MoscowseesWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaorthecreationofnewtradeblocksliketheTrans-
PacificPartnershipasuseofeconomicweapons.Thesystemiclackoftrustbetweentheleadersand
societiesprecludesmeaningfuldialogueontheseissuesanytimesoon.

Akeymarkerfortheimprovedrelationswouldbetheroll-backofWesternsanctionsagainstRussia.Butthe
mostcrucialpartsofthesanctionsregimearelikelytostayinplacein2016.Thecriteriaforremovalof
sanctionsremainformalandaretiedtoMinskII.Moscowishighlyunwillingtoimplementseveralpartsof
theMinskdeal,includingfullwithdrawalofitstroopsfromeasternUkraineandreturnofcontroloverthe
bordertotheKievgovernment.EvenifsomeoftheEUmeasuresareabolished,USsanctionswillstayin
place.

TheprospectsforresolutionofSyrianconflictremaindubious.TheUSandRussiaarehighlyunlikelyto
formarealmilitarypartnershiptoeradicatetheself-proclaimedIslamicState.Moscow'skeygoalremains
supportingthecurrentregimeinDamask,soitcancontinueitsairraidsagainstmilitarygroupswhichare
definedas"moderate"bytheWest.
Evenifthemajorpowersachievesomeformofconsensus,regionalpowerswithcompetinginterestslike
Turkey,SaudiArabiaandIranhavepowerfultoolstounderminetheseefforts.Wideningconflictbetween
MoscowandAnkaraisyetanotherfactorblockingnormalizationoftherelationship.

Lastbutnotleast,thepoliticalcalendarintheUSandRussiasuggestsahighprobabilityofconflict.Allthe
majorcandidatesfortheUSpresidentialelectionsareveryhawkishonRussia,saveforDonaldTrump,so
debatesinpublicspacewillbefulloftoughlanguageandpersonalattacksonPutin.Inthisenvironmentthe
outgoingadministrationishighlyunlikelytodoanythingmeaningfultoimprovetherelationshipevenifit
chosetodoso.

InRussia,2016istheyearoftheStateDumaelections.Ifhistoryisanyguide,anti-Westernrhetoricwillbe
everywhere.WithlowcommoditypricesandprolongedmismanagementoftheeconomytheKremlinhasno
betterchoiceastoblameeconomictroublesonthehostileWest.

Recentexamplesofofficialreactiontooppositionactivists'investigationsintohigh-profilecorruptioncases
showthattheauthoritiesalwaysblametheseinvestigationsasCIA-orchestratedcampaignsagainst"innocent
officials."ManyalsoexpectfurthersuppressionofNGOs,humanrightsactivistsandelectionmonitoring
organizationsasthevotesapproach.

It'sveryhardtoimaginehowRussiaandtheWestcantalkconstructivelyunderthesecircumstances.

ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinGlobalTimes.

SentfrommyiPad
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 01/06/201612:06:46PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue3

Viewthisemailinyour
browser

January6,2016--Volume13,Issue3

INTHISISSUE
*MoscowleakclaimsRussiacollaboratingwithTalibanagainstIslamicState
*whileTatarstanipresidentexpressesdiscontentwithKremlinsTurkeypolicies
*CrimeabeginsnewyearcutofffromUkrainianelectricity

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)

RussiaDecidesWhotheTerroristsAre

Attheendof2015,anunnamedKremlinofficialannouncedthatMoscowwasnowsharing
intelligenceabouttheIslamicStatewiththeAfghanTaliban,eventhoughtheTalibanremains
ontheRussianlistofterroristorganizations.PredictablytheTalibandeniedtheassertion
(Russianews.net,December26,2015).Butnoneofthisappearstohavebeenpickedupby
theRussian-languagemedia.ItmightnotbesurprisingthatMoscowdoesnotwantRussians
toknowitiscollaboratingwithoneterroristorganizationagainstanother,especiallyinviewof
thesensitivityinRussiaandCentralAsiatoanythinghavingtodowithAfghanistan.Butthere
alsohavebeennoRussiandenialsaboutthisissue,soitissafetoassumesuchaRussian-
Talibancollaborationmayindeedbetakingplace.

FormerFrenchleaderCharlesDeGaulleonceremarkedthatstatesarecoldmonsters.It,
therefore,shouldperhapsbeunsurprisingthatMoscowispursuingitsownbrandofdivide-
and-conquerpoliciesinthiscase.Nevertheless,theaforementionedannouncementcastsa
stark,ifnotlurid,lightonRussiasanti-terrorismpolicies.

SinceMoscowbeganitsmilitaryinterventioninSyria,ithasendlesslytrumpetedtheideathat
itissolelytheretofighttheIslamicStateandterrorists.PresidentVladimirPutinandhis
government,datingbacktothewarsinChechnyainthe1990sandearly2000s,havebeen
equallyadamantthatonecannotnotdistinguishbetweengoodandbadterrorists.Yet,that
isexactlywhatMoscowappearstobedoinghere.Moreover,thispolicycharacterizes
Russiasapproachacrosstheboard,notonlyinAfghanistan.Forthelastseveralmonths,
Russian-sponsoredterroristshavebeenconductingterroristbombingsinKharkiv,Kherson
andOdesa(UNIAN,December26,2015Khpg.org,June1,2015).Similarly,inSyria,as
manyobservershaverepeatedlypointedout,thevastmajorityofRussianattackshavenot
beenagainsttheIslamicState.Finally,inGaza,RussiahasneverbrandedeitherHamasor
Hezbollahasterroristseventhoughthey,especiallyHamas,arestillconductingterrorist
operationsandperiodicmissilelaunchesagainstIsrael.Indeed,HamasleaderKhaled
MashaalhasrepeatedlyvisitedMoscow,andhisorganizationconsidersRussiasrecognition
ofHamasasabreakthroughforthemovement(Al-monitor,June5,2014).

Tobesure,therecanbenodoubtofRussiasprofessedalarmabouttheIslamicState.
RussiasnewNationalSecurityStrategy,announcedonDecember31,2015(seeEDM,
January4, 5,2016),clearlylabelsterrorismasamajorthreattoRussia(Kremlin.ru,
December31,2015).Furthermore,in2014,Russiaannouncedthecreationoffiveregional
defenseheadquartersinRussiatoworkalongsidethenationaldefenseheadquartersand
coordinateallgovernmentagenciesagainstterrorism,amongotherthreats(Interfax,
December16,2014).Finally,itbearsnotingthatRussianconcernaboutapotentialvictoryin
Afghanistanbyterroristsgoesbackyears,andMoscowisnowoffering100,000AK-47sto
theAfghangovernmentforuseinitssecurityandcounter-terrorismoperations
(Thefronteirpost.com,December31,2015)

Yet,itremainsclearthatMoscowspolicyspecificallydistinguishesbetweenterroristswho
serveRussianinterestsandthosewhodonot,withthelatterbeingsubjecttoendless
stigmatizationifnotphysicalattack.Inaddition,itisclearfromthewarinUkraine,andfrom
RussiasearliereffortstothreatenGeorgiapriortotheirAugust2008war,thatterrorismisa
legitimateinstrumentofstatepolicyfortheKremlin.Themysteriousapartmentbombingsin
Moscowof1999haveneverbeensolved.Butanenormousamountofevidencepointsto
FSBinvolvementinthoseoperationstoprovokeawaragainstChechnyaandcatapultPutin
intothepresidency(see NorthCaucasusWeekly,January21,2004see EDMJune30,
2015).Morerecently,aformerKGBagenthasclaimedthatPutininitiatedtheplanthatledto
thebombingofaRussianflightfromSharmEl-Sheikhlastfall,killing224peopletojustifythe
warwithSyria(TheDailyMail,December25,2015)

Althoughnodefinitiveproofexistsineitherofthesetwolastcases,thereislittledoubtthat
Moscow,inpractice,viewstheuseofterrorismaswhollyinstrumentalandthatitshypocrisy
reflectsadeeplyingrainedpolicyapproach.Certainly,asillustratedbyRussiasnumerous
militaryexercises,itdoesnothesitatetoproclaimaterroristscenariotoconcealorcoverup
exerciseswhoserealpurposeislarge-scaleconventionalwarand/ortheinvasionof
neighboringcountries(seeRussiasZapad2013MilitaryExercise:LessonsforBaltic
RegionalSecurity,TheJamestownFoundation,December2015).Consequentlyobservers
shouldnotbeundulysurprisedthatMoscowpubliclyleakedthestoryofitsintelligence
collaborationwiththeTaliban,evenasitisprovidingarmstotheAfghangovernmenttofight
them.Inreality,suchopportunismisthehallmarkofRussianpolicy,andthereisnoreasonto
expectanyfundamentalchangein2016,evenasMoscowshoutsitsanti-terroristcredentials
inSyriafromtherooftops.

--StephenBlank

TatarstansPresidentDefiesKremlinEffortstoUniteRussiansagainstAnother
CommonEnemy

AnunexpectedresultofRussiasaggressiveforeignpolicyintheMiddleEasthasbeen
TatarstansoppositiontothedecisiontocuttieswithTurkey.AfteraTurkishF-16downeda
RussianwarplanethatallegedlycrossedfromSyriaintoTurkeysairspacelastNovember,
PresidentVladimirPutinvowedtopunishAnkaraforwhathecalledbackstabbing.The
RussiangovernmentthenseveredeconomictieswithTurkey,officiallyimposingsanctionsin
twoseparatepresidentialdecrees(Gazeta.ru,November28,2015andLenta.ru,December
28,2015).ThesanctionsendedorrestrictedtheactivitiesofTurkishcompaniesand
companiesownedbyTurkishcitizensinRussia,imposedavisaregime,andrestrictedexports
andimportsbetweenthetwocountries.SinceRussiaitselfisundersanctionsbytheWestern
countriesfortheannexationCrimeaandtheaggressivecovertwarineasternUkraine,some
expertssaythatRussianeconomicsanctionsagainstTurkeywillharmRussiamorethan
Turkey(Bfm.ru,November29,2015).

ItcomesasnosurprisethatmanyRussianconsumersareunhappyaboutthebusiness
restrictionsimposedbytheRussiangovernmentonTurkey.However,whatcameasashock
tomanyobserverswastheopenoppositiontoVladimirPutinbyaleaderofoneofRussias
regionsTatarstansPresidentRustamMinnikhanov.OnDecember21,Minnikhanovtold
journaliststhatTurkishbusinesseswouldcontinuetooperateintherepublic,contradictingnot
onlyPutinsdecreestargetingTurkishbusinesses,butalsothehystericalanti-Turkishmedia
campaigninRussia.MinnikhanovtriedtoavoidadirectcollisionwithMoscowbyskillfully
reinterpretingPutinsownwords.Icanrefertowhatourpresidentsaid,thatTurkeyisa
friendlynation,Minnikhanovsaid.ForTatars,theTurksareabrotherlypeople.Webelong
tothesamelanguagegroupandtothesamereligion.Whatthepresidentsaidisaveryserious
supportforus,becausewehavelargeTurkishinvestmentprojects.Theyhavebelievedinour
president.TatarstanspresidentestimatedTurkishinvestmentsinhisrepublicat$1.5billion
andsaidheexpectedmoreTurkishinvestment.Interestingly,Minnikhanovwentevenfurtherin
criticizingRussiangovernmentpolicies,especiallythepersistentanti-Americanpropaganda
campaign.IampreparedtobefriendswitheverybodywhoinvestsintoTatarstan,hesaid.
Skincolor,nationality,religiondonotmatter!TheysaythatAmericansdonotlikeus.They
builttwofactorieshereinourspecialeconomiczoneandeverythingisfine,weworktogether
well(Rbc.ru,December22,2015).

TatarstansmuteddiatribeagainsttheKremlinspolicieswasthefirstvividsignalofbrewing
tensionsbetweenVladimirPutinandRussiasregionalelites.OneSovietapologisteven
expressedfearsthatTatarstanmightdototheRussianFederationwhatUkrainedidtothe
UnionofSovietSocialistRepublics(USSR)namely.initiatetheprocessofitsdismantlement
(Forum-msk.org,January5).TatarstanisevidentlythechampionofregionalisminRussia,
withtheresourcestopreserveitsautonomy.Tatarstansgovernorstillhastheofficialtitleof
president,eventhoughMoscowtriedtochangehistitletohead,asinRussiasother
republics.TatarstanessentiallyignoredtheRussianfederallawthatexplicitlyprohibitsregional
governorsfromusingthetitlepresident(Gazeta.ru,December30,2015).

TatarintellectualsremainhopefulthatRussian-Turkishrelationswillbecomenormalagainafter
arelativelybriefdeterioration.EnemyNumberOneinRussiacomesandgoesquickly,
saidRafaelKhakimov,ananalystandpoliticalactivistinKazan.Bynextsummer,the
tensionswilllikelydissipate(Svoboda.org,January5).

TheoptimismofTatarsaboutRussian-Turkishrelationsmaybeprematurebecausethe
conflictcontinuestodevelop,andneitherVladimirPutinnorRecepErdoanofTurkey
appearswillingtobackdown.RussiasretreatfromtheMiddleEastwouldprobablycreate
theconditionsforreconciliationbetweenthetwocountries,butitwouldalsobeseenasa
defeatinRussia,especiallyiftheSyrianregimefalls.Atthesametime,Turkeyhasbeena
majordestinationforRussiantourists,sotheRussiangovernmentwillbeunderpressurenext
summertoreopentraveltoTurkey.NoothercountryexiststoreplaceTurkeyasasummer
destinationforRussiantourists,especiallygiventhefactthatEgypthasalsobecomeofflimits
sinceabombexplodedonaRussianairlinerflyingfromanEgyptianresorttoRussialast
October.

ThesurprisebacklashfromTatarstanspresidentindicatesthatthepatienceofRussian
regionalelites,andpossiblytheMoscowelites,iswearingthin.Theelitesmusthavethought
thattheeconomicsituationinRussiawouldimprovequickly,butitisbecomingworseandis
projectedtodeterioratefurther.Undertheseconditions,Putinsstrategyforpoliticalsurvivalis
topretendthatRussiaissurroundedbyenemiesandthepeopleneedtorallyaroundflag.
Thisstrategy,however,doesnotseemtobeworking,accordingtowell-knownKremlincritic
AndreiPiontkovsky(Svoboda.org,January5),becauseRussiansingeneralarenotprepared
toshoulderfinancialburdensforcausesthatseemincreasinglydubiousandunworthy.The
stanceofTatarstanspresidentisoneoftheboldestsignalstotheKremlintodatethatRussian
regionsareunhappywiththecountryspoliticalcourse,whichisleadingtocollisionswith
nearlyeverypowerinitsneighborhood.

--ValeryDzutsati

UkraineStopsPowerSupplytoRussian-AnnexedCrimea

ShortlybeforeitsresidentsrangintheNewYear,theRussian-annexedpeninsulaofCrimea
againfounditselfentirelywithoutUkrainianelectricity.AsinNovember,thiswascausedby
unidentifiedsaboteurswhoblewupapowertransmissionlinetowerinUkrainesKherson
province,whichbordersCrimea.However,thistime,Kyivisunlikelytorestorethepower
supply.First,UkraineselectricitycontractwithRussiaregardingsupplyingCrimeahas
expired,andbothKyivandMoscowarereluctanttosignanewoneforpoliticalreasons.
Andsecond,CrimeadependsonpowerfrommainlandUkrainetoamuchlesserextentthan
inNovember,asRussiainDecemberboosteditsownsuppliestotheoccupiedpeninsulaand
flewinpowergenerators.

AfallenelectricitypylonwasdiscoveredbyemergencycrewsneartheUkrainiantownof
KakhovkaintheearlyhoursofDecember31(112.ua,December31,2015).Asin
November,Ukrainianactivistsweremostprobablybehindtheblast,andtheUkrainian
securityservicehasbeenreportedlyquestioningmembersofthefar-rightparamilitarygroup
RightSector(Hromadske.tv,January4,2016).Ukrainequicklyrepairedthepylonandthe
transmissionline.Butthepowersupplywasnotrestored(112.ua,January1,2016),because
theRussian-UkrainiancontractonsupplyingelectricitytoCrimeaexpiredonDecember31,
andnonewcontracthasbeensigned.

InDecember2014,whenCrimeacouldnotsurvivewithoutUkrainianpower,Moscow
coercedKyivintosigningthecontract.KyivagreedtocontinuesendingpowertoCrimea,
whichhadbeenillegallyannexedbyRussiainMarch2014,inreturnforRussiaagreeingto
supplyelectricitytoEasternUkraine,whichwasshortofpowerbecauseofthewarwith
Moscow-backedmilitantsthere.However,asoftheendof2015,Ukrainenolongerneeds
Russianelectricitybothbecausesomeinfrastructurewasrestoredintheeastthankstothe
ceasefire,andbecausepowerconsumptionfellinUkrainein2015,duetotheeconomic
recessionandthankstoawarmfallandwinter(UNIAN,December15,2015).

Consequently,KyivseesnoeconomicneedfornewelectricityagreementswithRussia.In
earlyDecember,nolongerfearingretributionfromRussianpowersuppliers,Kyivrestoredthe
electricityflowtoCrimeathroughonlyoneofthefourpowerlinesthathadbeendamagedin
November.Pro-MoscowmilitantsintheDonbasareastoppedcoaldeliveriestoUkrainian
powerplantsinresponse,butUkrainehadmanagedtoalreadystoreenoughcoalforthe
winter,sotherewasnoimmediatedamagetotheeconomy(BBCNewsUkrainianservice,
November27,2015Rian.com.ua,December8,2015).

Politically,KyivfeelstheurgetopunishMoscowandpro-MoscowCrimeansforthe
annexation.Therefore,policedidnotinterferewhenUkrainian(includingfar-rightgroups)and
CrimeanTataractivistspreventedemergencycrewsfromfixingtheexplodedpowerpylonsin
KhersonprovincefortwoweeksinlateNovemberandearlyDecember.OnNovember23,
UkrainianPrimeMinisterArseniyYatsenyukurgedprosecutorstopunishthosewhowroteup
theCrimeanpowercontractbecauseinitswording,hesaid,itprovidedforsuppliestoa
federaldistrictofRussia,ratherthantotheUkrainianCrimeanAutonomousRepublic
(Pravda.com.ua,November23,2015).KyivsupportstheviewexpressedbytheCrimean
Tatarleadersinexile,MustafaCemilevandRefatChubarov,whoaremembersofPresident
PetroPoroshenkosfactioninparliament.Theyarguethatifanewcontractissignedwith
Russia,itmustprovideforpowersupplytoaRussian-occupiedUkrainianterritory,rather
thantoafederaldistrictofRussia(Interfax-Ukraine,December30,2015).

Russiaisnotpreparedtobackdown,however.DuringthesevereblackoutinNovember,it
flewinpowergeneratorsfromacrosstheKerchStraitinordertocoverbasicpowerneeds.It
alsolaidseveralpowercablesacrossthestraittoCrimeainDecembertheso-called
energybridge(see EDM,December14,2015).Asaresult,Crimeasdependenceon
Ukrainianelectricityquicklyfelltoaround25percentfrom7080percent.Furthermore,
MoscowclaimsthattherewillbenoneedforUkrainianelectricityinCrimeaatallafterMay
2016,whenmorepowercableswilllinkKrasnodarterritorytoCrimea(Kommersant,
December21,2015UNIAN,December24,2015).

Forthetimebeing,however,CrimeareliesonUkrainianelectricity,sotheKremlinhasbeen
busyshapingpublicopinioninordertojustifytherecurrentblackouts.SergeyAksyonov,the
flamboyantKremlin-appointedheadofCrimea,saidinDecemberthathesharedtheopinions
ofthenumerousCrimeanswhowrotetohimonsocialnetworksthatpowerpurchasesfrom
Ukraineshouldbestopped(Gazetacrimea.ru,December8,2015).Shortlyafterwards,
VladimirPutininstructedthegovernmentnottosignanewpowercontractonCrimeawith
Ukraine(Gazeta.ru,December9,2015).Mostrecently,Kremlinpollstersreportedthat93.1
percentofCrimeanresidentsdidnotwantanewpowercontractwithUkraine,ifthis
documentreferredtoCrimeaaspartofUkraine,ratherthanpartofRussia.Thepollwas
conductedbyMoscow-basedWCIOM,apparentlywithinhoursafterreceivingordersfrom
Putin,whichraisesdoubtsaboutitsaccuracy(TASS,January1,2016).

Meanwhile,themostrecentcoldwavehasagaincausedtwomillionCrimeansdeprivedof
Ukrainianpowertosuffer.AsofJanuary3,Crimeawasrunningon930megawattsof
electricity,including417megawattssuppliedfromKrasnodarterritory,comparedto1,350
megawattsneeded,accordingtoarepresentativeoftheRussianemergenciesministry(RIA
Novosti,January3,2016).Almostcertainly,CrimeansareinforaharshwinterifRussiaand
Ukrainedonotcometoanewagreementsoon.

--OlegVarfolomeyev

Forward ReadLater

LikeusonFacebook FollowEDMonTwitter EDMontheWeb

Availablenowforfreedownload,Zapad-2013:AViewFromHelsinki.Lookforothertitlesthrough
theJamestownStoreatjamestown.org/store.

ThisOccasionalPapercloselyanalyzesMoscow'smassiveZapad-2013exercise,carried
outacrosswesternRussiaandBelarusinSeptember2013,andoffersaFinnish
perspectiveonthemodernizationgainsachievedbytheRussianarmedforcesinrecent
years,aswellastherespectiveareaswheretheseforcesaretryingtomake
improvementstotheirstrategicshortcomings.

Availableforfreedownload,ConflictZones:NorthCaucasusandtheWesternBalkansCompared.
LookforothertitlesthroughtheJamestownStoreatjamestown.org/store.

InConflictZones,JanuszBugajskienhancesourunderstandingofthecausesandconsequencesof
thecurrentconflictsintheNorthCaucasusandextrapolateslikelyscenariosintheregions
development.HecomparesandcontrastsconditionsintheNorthCaucasuswiththeformerYugoslav
federationintheWesternBalkans,amulti-ethnicstatestructurethatcouldnotcontaininternally
generatedpoliticalandethnicdisputes.

TheEurasiaDailyMonitorisapublicationoftheJamestownFoundation.Theopinionsexpressedinit
arethoseoftheindividualauthorsanddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheJamestown
Foundation.IfyouhaveanyquestionsregardingthecontentofEDM,orifyouthinkthatyouhave
receivedthisemailinerror,pleaserespondtopubs@jamestown.org.

TheJamestownFoundation
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From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/25/201509:07:45AM
To: acrotto@us-state.osis.gov
Subject: RussiaandtheWest:NoEasyWayForwardinNewYear-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace

RussiaandtheWest:NoEasyWayForwardin
NewYear
Thisyearhasseena"newnormal"inrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWest:systemicconflictwithsmall
andoccasionalexamplesofcooperation.Comparedto2014,theyearoftheCrimeancrisis,warineastern
Ukraine,thetragicdowningofMH-17,WesternsanctionsagainstRussiaandacutedisputesoverSyria,2015
wasatleastasomewhatpositiveyear.ItstartedwithMinsk-IItalks,whichallowedtoreduceviolencein
Donbas,endedwithRussia,theUSandsomekeyEuropeanpowerstryingtofindmodusvivendiinSyria,
anddeliveredadealoverIraniannuclearprogram.Isitthenjustifiedtoexpectthatwemayseegradual
improvementofRussian-Westernrelations?Hardlyso.Asoberviewontheunderlyingissuesandonthe
politicalcalendarrequiresustoexpectanewlow.

Firstofall,therootsofconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWesthavenotbeenaddressed.Thegapof
mutualperceptionsiswidening.RussiaisseenbymostpolicymakersintheUSandEUasarevisionist
power,whichseekstochallengetheexistinginternationalnormsandunderminetheWesternprinciples.The
country'sleader,PresidentVladimirPutin,isportrayedasacowardlydictator,suppressingcivilrightsat
homeanddestabilizingRussia'sneighborsthroughhybridwarfare.IntheinternationaldomaintheKremlinis
supportingtheregimeofBasharal-Assad,whichisseenbytheWestasthecauseofprolongedconflictin
Syria.

InRussia,theUSisseenasaplayertryingallmeanstomaintainitsfadingglobaldominanceandcreating
problemsforrisingpowerslikeRussiaorChinathrough"colorrevolutions"andcreatingchaosintheMiddle
East.MoscowseesWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaorthecreationofnewtradeblocksliketheTrans-
PacificPartnershipasuseofeconomicweapons.Thesystemiclackoftrustbetweentheleadersand
societiesprecludesmeaningfuldialogueontheseissuesanytimesoon.

Akeymarkerfortheimprovedrelationswouldbetheroll-backofWesternsanctionsagainstRussia.Butthe
mostcrucialpartsofthesanctionsregimearelikelytostayinplacein2016.Thecriteriaforremovalof
sanctionsremainformalandaretiedtoMinskII.Moscowishighlyunwillingtoimplementseveralpartsof
theMinskdeal,includingfullwithdrawalofitstroopsfromeasternUkraineandreturnofcontroloverthe
bordertotheKievgovernment.EvenifsomeoftheEUmeasuresareabolished,USsanctionswillstayin
place.

TheprospectsforresolutionofSyrianconflictremaindubious.TheUSandRussiaarehighlyunlikelyto
formarealmilitarypartnershiptoeradicatetheself-proclaimedIslamicState.Moscow'skeygoalremains
supportingthecurrentregimeinDamask,soitcancontinueitsairraidsagainstmilitarygroupswhichare
definedas"moderate"bytheWest.
Evenifthemajorpowersachievesomeformofconsensus,regionalpowerswithcompetinginterestslike
Turkey,SaudiArabiaandIranhavepowerfultoolstounderminetheseefforts.Wideningconflictbetween
MoscowandAnkaraisyetanotherfactorblockingnormalizationoftherelationship.

Lastbutnotleast,thepoliticalcalendarintheUSandRussiasuggestsahighprobabilityofconflict.Allthe
majorcandidatesfortheUSpresidentialelectionsareveryhawkishonRussia,saveforDonaldTrump,so
debatesinpublicspacewillbefulloftoughlanguageandpersonalattacksonPutin.Inthisenvironmentthe
outgoingadministrationishighlyunlikelytodoanythingmeaningfultoimprovetherelationshipevenifit
chosetodoso.

InRussia,2016istheyearoftheStateDumaelections.Ifhistoryisanyguide,anti-Westernrhetoricwillbe
everywhere.WithlowcommoditypricesandprolongedmismanagementoftheeconomytheKremlinhasno
betterchoiceastoblameeconomictroublesonthehostileWest.

Recentexamplesofofficialreactiontooppositionactivists'investigationsintohigh-profilecorruptioncases
showthattheauthoritiesalwaysblametheseinvestigationsasCIA-orchestratedcampaignsagainst"innocent
officials."ManyalsoexpectfurthersuppressionofNGOs,humanrightsactivistsandelectionmonitoring
organizationsasthevotesapproach.

It'sveryhardtoimaginehowRussiaandtheWestcantalkconstructivelyunderthesecircumstances.

ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinGlobalTimes.

SentfrommyiPad
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/24/201508:13:12AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:DavidSATTER,"WhoismurderingRussianjournalists?WhenitcomestoRussianpolitics,DonaldTRUMPisausefulidiot,"
Subject:
http://www.nationalreview.com/node/428916/print

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Thursday,December24,20158:13AM
To:'howard@jamestown.org'
Cc:'paul.goble@gmail.com''waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:DavidSATTER,"WhoismurderingRussianjournalists?WhenitcomestoRussianpolitics,DonaldTRUMPisausefulidiot,"
http://www.nationalreview.com/node/428916/print

And:FOMpoll2015wastheworstyearforRussianssince1998:http://tvrain.ru/news/fom400701/

And:LEVADACENTERpollshowsthatRussianshavetakenastronginterestinNavalnyisfilmonthecorruptionofProcurator
GeneralCHAIKAandhisfamilyhttp://echo.msk.ru/blog/corruption/1682176echo/

And:InterviewofVenediktovwithAndreiILLARIONOVRoskomnadzor[Russianstatecommitteeoverseeingthemassmedia]
hastakenaninterestinIllarionovsBLOGandmaytakestepstosuppressit:http://echo.msk.ru/programs/razvorot/1373948
echo/

And:PatriarchKirillstopspokesman,ArchpriestVsevolodCHAPLIN,isremovedfromhispost:
http://www.newsru.com/religy/24dec2015/chaplin_print.html

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/22/201503:46:15PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:Russia'sTrumpMoment:SiamesecatasMayorofBarnaul,

From:paulroderickgregory[mailto:pgregory@stanford.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,December22,201511:23AM
To:paulroderickgregorypgregory@unitedcoal
Subject:Russia'sTrumpMoment:SiamesecatasMayorofBarnaul,

IsRussianearingaTrumpMoment:Throwoutthepoliticalclass

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/12/22/adonaldtrumpmomentisdevelopinginvladimir
putinsrussia/

Forbes Welcome
www.forbes.com

Forbes Welcome page Forbes is a global media company, focusing on business, investing, technology,
entrepreneurship, leadership, and lifestyle.

From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/23/201511:14:00AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList

AsIrecallwehaveneverdiscussedKofman.(No3)

SentfrommyiPhone

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:DavidJohnson<davidjohnson@starpower.net>
Date:December23,2015at12:19:39PMEST
To:donald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net

Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere

Johnson'sRussiaList
2015#249
23December2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
GeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs*
www.ieres.org
JRLhomepage:www.russialist.org
ConstantContactJRLarchive:
http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html
JRLonFacebook:www.facebook.com/russialist
JRLonTwitter:www.twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi
SupportJRL:http://russialist.org/funding.php
Yoursourcefornewsandanalysissince1996
*SupportforJRLisprovidedinpartbyagrantfromCarnegieCorporationofNewYorkandtheOpenSociety
FoundationstotheGeorgeWashingtonUniversityandbyvoluntarycontributionsfromreaders.Thecontents
donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.

"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"

"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee

DJ:Somelightholidayreading.MerryChristmas!

Inthisissue
TODAY
1.AP:WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW.
.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:FyodorLukyanov,Theworldin2015:Anostalgiafor
balance.Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
impossibilityofreturningtointeractiongovernedbyoldprinciples.Asglobalplayersstrive
forareturntotheirindividualperceptionofa"goldenage,"FyodorLukyanovconsiders
whichgeopoliticalmodelappearsthemostlikelyinthenearfuture.
3.http://warontherocks.com:MichaelKofman,TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis.
4.TheUnzReview:IsraelShamir,PutinBlues.
5.Kremlin.ru:FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
6.www.rt.com:'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremains
desperate'
7.TheNationalInterest:MichaelPeck,America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia.
Nowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,andwhy.
8.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta:Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:
RecappingtheYearofLiterature.
9.Reuters:Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall.

#1
AP
December22,2015
WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW
ByJIMHEINTZ

MOSCOW(AP)-It'susuallythecoldthat'sbitterinMoscowinDecember,butthisyearit's
thehumorthatbitesduringanunusualwarmspell.

Astemperaturesclimbedashighas7degreesCelsius(45degreesFahrenheit)inthe
Russiancapitalinrecentdays,ajokebegancirculatingontheInternet:Thiswasnature's
compensationforRussiansbeingunabletotakevacationsinEgyptandTurkeythisyear-
twotopdestinationsforRussianwinterholidays.

RussiabannedallitsairlinesfromflyingtoEgyptafteroneofitsairlinerswasbombedthere
inOctober,killingall224peopleonboard,andRussianchartertripstoTurkeywere
suspendedfollowingtheNov.24shootingdownofaRussianwarplane.

TheweatherisblamedoncyclonesintheAtlantic,spreadingwarmthandrainovermostof
westernRussia.

Although7Cisn'taheatwavebymoststandards,it'sanunsettlingchangeforacitywhere
temperaturesaverageminus6C(21F)inDecember-andithasbrokenrecordssetin
1936.

Worseyet,itjustseemssoun-Russian.

SomuchsothatatopRussianpoliticianfounditnecessarytopromisethatarealwinteris
ontheway.

"Therenecessarilywillbesnow,Iassureyou.Therewillbesnowonthe30th,"Sergei
Naryshkin,speakerofthelowerhouseoftheRussianparliament,declaredMonday.

"PeoplearetellingmethisisaEuropeanwinter,that'sgood,that'showit'ssupposedtobe.
AndItellthem'No,thisisnotaRussianwinter,'"complainedMariaArbuzova,aretiree
shoppingTuesdayataholidaymarketnearMoscow'sRedSquare.

Moscowisacitythatchoosestoembracewinterratherthanendureit.

Goodskitrailscanbereachedonthesubway,askijumpplungesdownahillattheedgeof
thecitycenterandoutdoorskatingrinksdotthecity.GorkyParkfloodsmanyofits
sidewalkstocreateamazeofskatingpathsandtheVDNKhcomplex,anextravaganzaof
SovietGothicbuildingsandfountains,hoststheworld'slargestrefrigeratedoutdoorrink,a
massive20,000squaremeters(aboutfiveacres).

Thoserinks,andothersinthecity,havebeenclosedsofarthisyear.A100-meter(320-
foot)iceslideerectedneartheKremlinisalsooutofbusiness,itsicelesswoodenstructure
asadreminderofthefunthat'sbeingmissed.

"Theweatherisnotmakingmeveryhappy,"saidamandressedasDedMoroz,the
RussiananalogueofSantaClaus,whogavehisnameonlyasAnton.
ButreliefmaycomebythetimeDedMorozmakeshisgift-givingroundsonNewYear's
Eve.
ForecastersexpecttemperaturesinMoscowtoreturntoaseasonablebelow-freezinglevel
onSaturdayorSunday.

[returntoContents]

#2
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Theworldin2015:Anostalgiaforbalance
Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
impossibilityofreturningtointeractiongovernedbyoldprinciples.Asglobalplayersstrive
forareturntotheirindividualperceptionofa"goldenage,"FyodorLukyanovconsiders
whichgeopoliticalmodelappearsthemostlikelyinthenearfuture.
ByFyodorLukyanov
TheauthoristheeditorinchiefoftheRussiainGlobalPoliticsmagazineandheadof
researchattheValdaiInternationalDiscussionClub.

Theyear2015isthefirstinwhichno-oneiscontestingtheobviousanymore:thattheworld
systemisinasevereimbalance,onewhichkeepsgeneratingnewcrises.Manyrealized
thisalongtimeago,butwerereluctanttoadmitit,i.e.togiveupthecozyperceptiondating
backtothelate20thcenturythateverythingisgoingwellandinevitablerelapsescanbe
successfullycontained.

Forexample,Russia'sactionstoincorporateCrimeaandsupporttheanti-Maidan
movementsineasternUkrainewereviewedasonesuchrelapse.Theleadingpowers(in
termsoftheirimpactontheworldorder,i.e.theWest)tried-throughconsolidatedpolitical,
economicandpsychologicalpressure-tomaketheKremlinchangeitsbehaviorandreturn
"totherightsideofhistory."Inotherwords,theyproceededfromthepremisethatthenotion
of"asitshouldbe"exists.

ThepressureonRussiafailedtoproducethedesiredeffect,andthencamethefinal
turningpoint.InthecasewithSyria,no-oneknowsanymorewhatthis"asitshouldbe"is.
TheMiddleEastof2015hascometorepresentdespair:Themoreeffortismade,themore
obviousitisthat,first,sucheffortisineffective,andsecond,thatitisimpossibleinprinciple
torallytheparticipantsinthismulti-layeredconflictaroundasinglegoal.

ISIS:seekingtoresetthegame

Thetrendoftheyearisthehopelessdesiretoreturnto"thegoldenage,"witheachplayer
havingtheirownideaofthis.Themoststrikingexampleis,ofcourse,themain
troublemakeroftheMiddleEastregion,whichisnowcustomarilyreferredtoasDaesh
(knownintheWestasIslamicState,orISIS).Here,everythingisstraightforward:backto
thecaliphate,wheneverythingwasfairandsquaredownwiththeachievementsoftheso-
called"civilization"thatcolonizersforcedonthetruebelievers.

ThecertainpopularitythatradicalIslamistsfromwhatwasoncecalledMesopotamiaenjoy
intheWest,theinterestintheirideasandactionsisasignthatevenoutsideofthe
proposed"caliphate"peoplefeelanemptinessinsideandincreasinglylongforsomething
differentfromwhattheyhavenow.

Havingsaidthat,itisnotonlytheself-proclaimedcaliph,AbuBakral-Baghdadi,theleader
ofISIS,whohankersafteragoldenpast.Thosewhobelongtomainstreamglobalpolitics
lookbackintothepastforinspirationtoo-albeitanot-so-distantpast.

Ayearningforamorestableera

Thememorabledatesoftheyear2015areareminderofhistoricaleventslinkedtothe
establishmentofaparticularworldorder:the200thanniversaryoftheCongressofVienna,
the70thanniversaryoftheendofWorldWarIIandtheestablishmentoftheUN,the40th
anniversaryoftheHelsinkiFinalAct,the25thanniversaryoftheCharterofParisforaNew
Europe.

Uptotheendofthe20thcentury,thenotionofaworldorderwasalwaysaboutbalance.A
complexbalance,involvingnumerousplayers,aswasthecaseinthe19thcentury.Ora
relativelysimplebalance,asafterWorldWarII,whenthereemergedasystemofequal
dominanceoftwosuperpowers.Abalanceinevitablyenvisagedamutualrecognitionof
spheresofinfluenceinoneformoranother.ThatwasthefoundationfortheViennamodel,
theYaltasystem,theHelsinkiFinalAct.

Atfirstglance,itmayseemthatthe1990ParisCharter,whichdeclaredanendtospheres
ofinfluenceanddivisionlines,isbasedonadifferentprinciple.However,inpractice,ittoo
requiredabalance,notforconfrontationbutforrapprochement.Ineffect,thisiswhat
MikhailGorbachevdreamtof:Asfarashewasconcerned,theendoftheColdWarshould
havebeenbasedonaconvergence,anequalandmutualcomingtogetherofpreviously
competingblocs.Thebreak-upoftheSovietUnionshutthedooronthatoption:Russia
wasnotperceivedasasecondcenterinEurope.

Irrespectiveofwhatisbeingdeclaredofficially,anidealforRussiawouldbeareturnto
someformofagreedspheresofinfluence.HencethenostalgiaforViennaandYalta.The
idealfortheWestisthesituationofthe1990s,whenthespheresarenomoreandthe
influencehasbecomeuniversal.HencetheconstantreferencestoHelsinki(omitting,
however,tomentionthatcomponentoftheHelsinkiAccordsthatestablishedtheverysame
spheresofinterest)andParis,whichenvisagesacommonality.

Aproliferationofglobalactors

Neitherofthesenostalgia-inducingmodelscanbebroughtback.Whatmakestoday's
politicsdifferentfromtheeraof"worldorders"ishowuncommonlydemocraticitis.There
aretoomanyofthosewhoareinfluencingtheprocessesnow.

Nowthelistconsistsofnotjustthemajorpowers,asbefore,butalsoofnumerousmid-
rangecountriesseekingtomakeitintotheinternationalpremierleague,interstate
organizationswiththeirbureaucraticinertia,hugecorporations(withcommunications
giantsbeinginaleagueoftheirown),non-stateactors,likenon-governmental
organizations(ISIS,ineffectisoneofthem)andevensomeindividualswhopossess
intellectualpoweroverotherpeople.

Insidestatestoo,decision-makingismademorecomplicatedbythefactthatgovernments
areunabletofullycontrolwhatishappeningontheirterritory:Itisimpossibletofence
oneselfofffromthenumerousinfluencesofaglobalworld.

Clearlydefinedspheresofinterestareoutofthequestion.Thosewhousedtobelongto
theminthepastarenolongerpreparedtoacceptthistypeofrelations,whilethosewho
usedtocontrolthemdonothaveenoughleversofpowertoforceanyone.

Theoutgoingyearhasshownthatthedominanttrendisnottheuniversalityofapyramid-
likeworld,asitseemedinthe1990s,butthefragmentationoftheworldintomore
manageablesegments.Theyoperateaccordingtotheirownratherthanuniversalrules.
TheTrans-PacificPartnershipsetupinOctoberthisyearisaprototypeofthistypeofa
"bloc."AnothercomponentshouldbetheTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnership,
whichU.S.PresidentBarackObamahopestoreachanagreementonbeforetheendofhis
presidentialterm.

Abalanceoftwooceans

Theyear2015hasnotonlybecomeaRubiconmarkingthestartofsomethingnew,ithas
alsoshownthatitisimpossibletobringbackthepast.TheauthorsoftheValdaiClub
annualreport,whichthisyeariscalled"WarandPeaceinthe21stCentury,"areconvinced
that"theriseinchaosandunmanageabilityininternationalrelationscannotlastforever...
mostlikely,wearewitnessingtheemergenceofanewstructureoftheworld,basedon
whatiseffectivelyabalance,albeitloose,oftwolargegroupsofstates."

"Now,aneworderwillnotberebornonthepost-warruinsofthepreviousorderbutwill
gradually'germinate'fromadialecticchaosofrivalryandinterdependence,"readsthe
report.Thisishappeningorganically,irrespectiveofthewillofthemainplayers,whoare
stillcaptivatedbythepast.

Aflexiblebalanceof"thetwooceans"withAmericainthecenterontheoneside,andthe
continentalmassofEurasiawithaclosepartnershipbetweenChinaandRussiaonthe
other,isatfirstglancesomewhatdisconcerting.Itlookstoomuchlikeyetanotherversion
oftheclassicgeopoliticsoftheMahanandMackindervarietyorlikethegrimpredictionsof
GeorgeOrwellwithhisEurasiaandOceania.

Infact,thesearetwocommunitiesthatareunitedbycommoninterestsfromwithinbutare
interdependentandnotconfrontationaltoeachother,atleastnotalways.Thisisthebest
optionthatonecanimaginetoday.Yetanotherversionofan"endofhistory"-inflected
"eternalpeace,"predictably,hasturnedouttobeautopia.

[returntoContents]

#3
http://warontherocks.com
December23,2015
TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis
ByMichaelKofman
MichaelKofmanisanAnalystattheCNACorporationandaFellowattheWilsonCenter's
KennanInstitute.PreviouslyheservedasProgramManageratNationalDefenseUniversity.
Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.

Astheclockcountsdowntotheendofanothertumultuousanddifficultyearofdealingwith
Russia,thenaturalinstinctistolookbackonthebattlesandsurprisesof2015withaneye
tomakingpredictionsforthecomingyear.Thereismaterialaplenty:thebattleof
Debaltseve,Moscow'soperationsinSyria,acrisiswithTurkeythatstillburnsbright.Anew
yearoffersnewopportunitiesforprognostication:WherewillRussiastrikenext?Whatis
Putinthinking?Whatarethelikelyflashpointsof2016?Insteadofthistraditionalexercise,
Russiaexpertsshouldreflectonayearofdiscussions,briefings,roundtables,merciless
PowerPointdecksabouthybridwar,andoccasionalspatsinthevirtualpagesofoutletslike
WarontheRocks.Whatarethenaggingquestions,questionableassumptions,and
unknownsthatbesettheanalyticalandpolicymakingcommunity?

ExpertsandpolicymakerswhodealwithRussiaarelivinginahigh-tempoenvironment,
keepingpacewithmilitaryinterventions,crises,andthefrequenttwistsinbilateralrelations.
However,inanysuchendeavor,itispossibletolearnlessonsthatarenottrue.Thisismy
ownattemptatpresentingalistofquestionablebitsofanalysisandassumptionsthatexist
withinthecommunity.Indoingso,Ihopetopushpeopletocriticallyexaminehowtheylook
atRussia.Whydowesaysomeofthesethings,andmoreimportantlywhydowethink
them?

1.TheRussianGovernmentisBrittle.Orisit?

PresentingVladimirPutin'sregimeasbrittleisoftenanalyticalshorthandforarguingthathis
regimeisdangerousinthenearterm,butequallylikelytoimplodeinshortorder,with
Russiadescendingintoturmoilandinstability.Indeed,Moscowhasaccumulatedsomany
domesticandforeignpolicyproblemsthatitwouldmakethisalogicalassessmentwereit
notforthepoortrackrecordofsuchpredictions.Witheachnewoutbreakinwhathas
becomeanalmostroutineseriesofpolitical,economic,orforeignpolicycrises,asegment
oftheRussia-watchercommunityinvariablybeginstomakepredictionsofPutin'simminent
demise.Unfortunately,thescienceofpredictingregimechangeseemstolagsignificantly
behindastrology.WeshouldrememberthatfewpredictedtheSovietUnion'srapiddemise,
thestartoftheArabSpring,oranticipatedtherapidfallofVictorYanukovichinUkraine
followingthestartoftheMaidan.

Therearetwoongoingcasestudiesonthemeritofsuchpredictions.ThefirstisPakistan,
acountrythatbythesametheoryshouldhavecollapsedlongagoundertheweightofits
manyproblems.ThesecondisNorthKorea,whichsoldiersondespitedecadesof
predictionsandestimatesoftheregime'simminentimplosion.AsformerSecretaryof
DefenseRobertGatesremarkedonourabilitytopredictthenatureandlocationofthenext
conflict,"ourrecordhasbeenperfect"giventhat"we'veneveroncegottenitright."The
sameshouldbesaidofourabilitytojudgeregimebrittleness.Thepointisnotthatneo-
Kremlinologyorassessmentsofpoliticalstabilityareawasteoftime,butthatthisisa
singlelayerofanalysisthatshouldbetakenwithahealthydoseofskepticism.

UndoubtedlythosewhoregularlypredictPutin'sdownfallwillonedaybevindicated,butfor
planningandanalyticalpurposes,ourexpectationsshouldbetempered.Thenexttestof
politicalbrittlenesscomesin2018whenwewillseehowreadyandwillingtheRussian
publicistoacceptPutin'sautomaticre-election.Nobodyknowswhatthestateofthe
economy,currencyvaluation,foreignexchangereserves,oilprices,orinternationalposition
ofRussiawillbethatyear.

2.TheUnitedStateshasaPutinProblem,notaRussiaProblem.OrDoesit?

Theindividualsinpowermatter,andanotherRussianleadermaynothavechosentoannex
CrimeaorinvadeUkraineinresponsetotheMaidan'svictory.Thatbeingsaid,thelingering
debateonwhethertheUnitedStateshasaPutinproblemoraRussiaproblemisan
unsettledone.IfoneassumesthattherealproblemisPutin'sregime,howeverlongitmight
last,thenthenaturalcourseofactionistoavoidanybargainswithRussia,cauterizethe
damagetothebilateralrelationshipandwaitforanotherleader.Mypersonalviewisthat
whoeversucceedsVladimirPutinwillnotprovetobeallthatdifferent,andwilllikelyfollowa
similarpolicypath.

RussianhistorysuggeststhatPutinisanythingbutanaberrationinleadership,pursuing
securitydilemmasinthesamemannerofmanypreviousoccupantsoftheKremlin.Seeing
Russia'ssecurityspaceasazero-sumgameandsecuringitbylimitingthesovereigntyof
itsneighborsisalmostcanonforRussianforeignpolicy(asitwasforSovietpolicy).We
shouldaskifPutin'sforeignpolicyisfundamentallysodifferentfromthatofBorisYeltsin,
Russia'sfirstdemocraticleader,orifRussiawassimplytooweakduringYeltsin'sruleto
challengethepost-ColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.Inearly2014,Henry
KissingerwarnedWashingtonnottofixateonPutinwhenhewrotethat"FortheWest,the
demonizationofVladimirPutinisnotapolicy,itisanalibifortheabsenceofone."

YeltsintoobelievedintheapplicationofforcetoachievedesiredpoliticalendsinRussiaand
onitsperiphery.ExamplesarefoundamongRussianinterventionsinTransnistriaand
Tajikistanin1992andAbkhaziain1993,theuseoftankstosuppressaconstitutionalcrisis
inMoscow,theFirstChechenWarin1994-96,andtheRussianparatrooperdeploymentto
seizePristinaInternationalAirportin1999aheadofNATO'sdeploymentinKosovo.In
retrospect,thatadministrationwasnotshortonmilitarygambits,complaintsaboutNATO
expansion,orgripeswithU.S.militaryinterventions.ThecharacterofYeltsin'sgovernment
wasquitedifferentfromPutin'sregime,butarguablyitwasunderhisleadershipinthe
1990sthatRussiabeganandendeditsbriefflirtationwithdemocracy.Intruth,wehave
Yeltsin'spresidencytothankforPutin.

Putin'sviewoftheworldmayhaveevolvedduringhisrule,butthereislittleevidencethat
weshouldexpecthissuccessortotraveladifferentpath.Thusfar,thereisnothingto
suggestthatthenextRussianleader,whenfacedwithasimilarinternationalandregional
environmentwillnotattempttoengagetheWest,leavedisappointedandreverttothe
ruthlesspursuitofRussiannationalinterest.Anotherquestionseldomraisediswhether
U.S.policytowardsRussiawouldtrulychangeifitstroublesomeleaderweretodisappear
tomorrow.

3.MoscowCannotKeepThisUp.OrCanit?

CurrentdiscourseonRussia'seconomicfrailtyfoldsintothebroaderdiscussionon
whetherornotMoscowcansustainthecurrentstateofconfrontation.Inotherwords,how
longcanMoscowkeepthisup?TheunderlyingquestioniswhetherRussiawillceasebeing
aprobleminthenear-tomid-termbysuccumbingtoitseconomicwoes.Thenarrativethat
RussiawillrunoutofmoneyisprevalentintheWest,eventhoughMoscow'sforeign
reserveshavebothstabilizedandshownamodestreboundinrecentmonths.Thebigger
questioniswhydowetalkaboutRussiaasthoughitwasabankoracompany?Did
Russiagooutofbusinessafterthe1998default?

WhatistheactualconnectionbetweenWesternsecurityconsiderationsvis-a-visRussia,
itsforeignandnationalsecuritypolicy,andtheamountofmoneyithasonhand?Putin
announcedambitiousmilitaryreformsin2009,whenthepriceofoilfellto$35perbarrel.
RussiainvadedUkraineandannexedCrimeain2014eventhoughtheRussianeconomy
wasclearlyenteringarecessioninlate2013.Lookingfurtherback,Russianspersevered
throughthefinancialdefaultandcurrencycrisisof1998,manygoingthebetterpartofa
yearwithoutsalaries.PutinwasanointedasYeltsin'ssuccessorfollowingthiseconomic
carnage,andintheaftermathlaunchedtheSecondChechenWarin1999,aprolonged
conventionalandcounterinsurgencycampaign.
Thisdiscussionbegsamoreessentialquestionastowhetherornottheeconomyhasever
beenafoundationofRussianpowerintheinternationalsystem.Inapreviousarticlefor
WarontheRocks,IarguedthatRussiahasoftenappearedtobethesickmanofEurope,
technologicallybackwards,withalacklustereconomy,andapoliticalsystemthat
consistentlylagsbehindtheneedsofitssociety.Thatbeingsaid,despiteWesternfearsto
thecontrary,theSovietUnionwasneverasuperpowerbyvirtueofbeingaserious
economiccompetitortotheUnitedStates,letalonetheWest,atbestattaining57percent
ofAmerica'sGNPinthelate1960sbeforefallingbehind.

Today,plentyofseniorU.S.officialsconsiderRussiatobeastrategicthreatandaserious
opponenttoNATOeventhoughitsGDPisbarelyatenthofAmerica's.Inarecentinterview
discussingRussia,DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkappliedMearsheimer's
definitionofagreatpowertoMoscow,highlightingthereturnofgreatpowerpoliticsinthe
internationalsystem.Granted,hesaidthiswasanarrowlens,butiftheUnitedStates
considersRussiatobeagreatpower(orregionalpowerwithabignucleararsenal)when
itseconomyrepresentsamere3.3percentofglobalGDP,thentheconnectionbetween
economicfundamentalsofpowerandRussia'spositionintheinternationalsystemmerits
furtherdiscussion.

4.RussiaCannotSustainMilitaryOperations.OrCanit?

FollowingcloselythediscussionofeconomicweaknessisageneralsentimentthatRussia
isunabletosustainmilitaryoperationsduetofinancialorforceconstraints.Goingbackto
early2015,thenotionthatRussia'sarmedforcesaretieddownor"stuck"inUkraine
seemstohavedissipated.Themeritofsuchestimateswascastintodoubtwhen,in
Septemberofthisyear,RussiawassimultaneouslysustainingitsdeploymentinUkraine,
conductingtheexpensivestrategicexerciseCenter2015,anddeployinganexpeditionary
operationtoSyria.Itoowaswronginarguingthatlogisticalandfinancialconstraintswould
limitMoscow'sinvolvementinSyriagivenitslackofassetstosustainexpeditionary
operations.

Muchtomyownsurprise,RussiasurgedsealiftbyreflaggingTurkishcommercialshipsto
supportitsincreasingtrooppresenceandbaseexpansions.ForMoscow,necessityisthe
motherofinvention,whereasfortheUnitedStatesitisusuallythemotherofprocurement.
Russiaalsofoundplentyoffundingtotestexpensivelandattackcruisemissilesofalmost
everyvariety.Inarecentpressconference,Putinshowednosignsthateconomic
constraintswouldimpactmilitaryoperations.Instead,itseemsRussiacansustainthisand
allotherlinesofeffortforatleastafewyears.At4.2percentofGDP,or3.3trillionrubles,
Russia'sdefensebudgetisthehighestithasbeensincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion.

Toooftenwetradeinouranalyticalexpertiseforanaccountant'sglasses,asthoughwe
couldcounttheRussianMinistryofDefense'smoneyoritsavailabletroopsbetterthanit
can.Ontheissueofsustainmentofmilitaryoperationsweneedadoseofanalytical
humility.

5.RussiaisStillaPowerinDecline.Orisit?

IfundamentallybelievethatRussiaisapowerinstructuraldecline,butincreasinglyI
wonderabouttherelevanceofthatassessment.Itseemswitheachyearwecaninferless
andlessfromsuchastatement.CelesteWallanderandEugeneRumer,twolongtime
RussiaexpertswhomIholdinthehighestregard,oncewrote:

"Despiteseveralyearsofeconomicgrowthandanewdynamicleader,Russiaremainsa
powerindecline.Neitheritsrecenteconomicsuccessnoritsvigorousleadershipis
sufficienttomakeupforthelong-termlossesthecountryhassufferedortocompensate
forthecontemporaryshortcomingsthatbeliekeyelementsofRussianpower."

TheonlyproblemwiththisremarkablepieceinTheWashingtonQuarterlyisthatitwas
publishedinlate2003.Roughlyadecadelater,PresidentObamasimilarlyopinedthat
Russiaisa"regionalpower"actingoutof"weakness."ManyofRussia'sunderlying
weaknesseswereastruethenastheyarenow,butifRussiaisdeclining,itisdoingsovery
slowly,anditsleadershipdoesnotacceptsuchapredestinedfate.Asimprobableasitmay
be,absentasuddenRussiancollapse,atsomepointwemaybeforcedtoadmitthat
Russiaisdecliningsoslowlythecountrymightjustbemuddlingthrough.
6.DemographyWillDetermineRussia'sFate.OrWillit?

Russia'sdemographicproblemsarecommonlyreferencedasoneofthedriversofits
supposedlyassuredstructuraldecline.Analystsoftenmentiondemographytoeitherblithely
supportthenotionthatRussiawillsimplyceasetobeaproblemfortheWestinthelong
term,orworriedlyspeculatethatthecountrywillbecomedangerouslyunstable.Butwhat
mightRussia'sdemographicstrulydetermine?WillRussiasomehowbelessofastrategic
threatoraconcernfortheUnitedStatesifithasasmallerpopulation?Itisalmostcertain
thatRussiawillhaveenoughmanpowertomaintain1,550strategicnuclearweapons,
alongwithaconventionalforcetoovermatchanyofitsneighbors,saveChina.Perhaps
counterintuitively,intheshortterm,Russia'sarmedforceshavesteadilyincreasedinsize
fromroughly667,000-700,000in2012to900,000today.

Whenconsideringlong-termalternativefuturesitisworthnotingthatRussia'seconomy
andnationalbudgetisinexorablydependentonenergyandresourceextraction.Theseare
industriesthatarenotlabor-intensive.Atthesametime,Russiaisthebeneficiaryofalarge
laborinfluxfromformerSovietRepublics,oftenmakingitthethird-orsecond-highest
recipientofmigrantsintheworld.CanRussianationalizesuchlaboratthecostofinternal
socialcohesion?Howmuchwillitsgovernmentbudgettrulysufferfollowingalaborforce
contraction?Isitevenfairtoassumethatwarfareorsimilarstatetaskswillremain
manpower-intensive30yearsfromnow?AreRussia'sdemographicproblems
fundamentallydifferentfromthoseofotherdevelopedstates,includingmanyU.S.allies?It
strikesmethatRussia'sdemographicdeclineismoreofanopen-endedquestionthana
definitivestatementonthefutureofthecountry.

7.ForPutin,It'sAllAboutRegimeSurvival.Orisit?

Moscow'sannexationofCrimea,invasionofUkraine,andlaunchofoperationsinSyriaare
sometimesexplainedasthethroesofafallingpoliticalsystemengagedina"survival
project."Theunderlyingtheoryunifyingtheseactionsisregimesurvival,brilliantly
advocatedbyLiliaShevtsovainanumberofarticlesandop-eds.Theproblemwiththis
approachisthatregimesurvivalcircularlyexplainseverythingandabsolutelynothingatthe
sametime:Thereisnopoliticalregimeonearththatisnotinterestedinitssurvival.Regime
survivalisaconstantmotivationformany,ifnotall,politicalsystemsandpoliticians.Itisso
fungibleananalyticalapproachthatitlendsitselfusefultoexplaininganyandallpolicy
choicesbyPutin.

Atitscore,thisargumentarbitrarilytakesthedomesticpoliticaloutcomesofMoscow's
actions,suchashighapprovalratingsathome,oraresurgentsenseofnationalism,and
movesthembackintimetobecometheprimaryobjectivesofforeignandnationalsecurity
policy.Thatcouldbetrue,butitseemsimpossibletoproveordisprove.Regimesurvival
maynotbeanincorrectexplanationofMoscow'smotives,butitiscertainlyincompleteas
ananalysisoftherealsourcesofRussiandecision-making.

RussiaAnalysisinPerspective

InmyownnarrowlaneofRussianmilitaryanalysis,thereisalwaysroomforamore
balanced,informed,andnuancedunderstandingofRussia.Perhapsthegreatestwoeof
discussionsonRussianmilitary,strategy,anddecision-making(otherthandebateson
hybridwarfare)istheconstantseesawbetweentwoextremes.Toooften,weareengaged
inanasininedebateastowhetherRussia'smilitaryisfivefeettallor12feettall.
Assessmentstendtotrackmorecloselywithwhereonesitsinthepolicymakingornational
securityestablishment,versuswheretheRussianmilitaryactuallyis,andwhatitcando.
HereIbelievethestartingpointshouldalwaysbeBismarck'sobservationthat"Russiais
neverasstrongasshelooksnorasweakasshelooks."Whenitcomestodecision-
makinganalysis,Putinisregularlycastinstarktermsaseitherabrilliantstrategist,
outfoxingtheWestateveryturn,orcompletelyincompetentwithoutanynotionofwhathe
willdonext.

PerchancethebroadestandmostvexingquestionforU.S.decision-makersandexperts
todayisthis:HowdowedeterRussia?Itisasvagueasitisrecurrent.Theshortansweris
thattheUnitedStatesdoesdeterRussia,whichiswhywe'reallstillhere70yearsafter
nuclearweaponswerefirstused.Amoreanalyticallyinteresting-andpoliticallyvaluable-
questionwouldbehowtheUnitedStatesshouldmanagegreat-powercompetitioninthe
internationalsystemandkeepconfrontationwithRussiafromescalatingintowar.Ifcrises
areinevitableamongthemajorplayers,anditseemstheyare,thenmanagingescalation
dynamicsisparamount.Whenfacedwithaproblem,bureaucracieshaveapredilectionfor
pursuingactivityandconfusingitforachievement,toparaphraseFareedZakaria.Tobetter
structureapolicyorastrategytowardsRussiaweshouldconfrontourownunderlying
assumptionsandthemeritsofprevailingnarratives,andmorerigorouslyseektofillexisting
gapsinanalysis.

[returntoContents]

#4
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
December23,2015
PutinBlues
ByIsraelShamir

HeavydarknessbefallstheNorththesunrarelyemergesfrombetweentheclouds.This
year,Russiahasnoticeablylessstreetillumination,andthespiritsareanythingbutfestive.
OnlythewhitenessofthesnowandChristmastreesbreakthegloomandremindusofthe
forthcominglowpointofthecosmicwheel,Yuletide,whendaysstartstowaxandnightsto
wane.AsthisstellareventforetellstheNativityofourSavior,thisisaperiodofhopeaftera
verydifficultyear,allovertheworld.

Putinsupportersareunhappy

TheRussianskeepguessingwhatPresidentPutinwilltelltheminhistraditionaltelevised
addresstothenationatthebreakoftheNewYear.Heshouldsay,thisyearisover,andwe
shallallcheer,peoplepropose.Eventhemostoptimisticonesaredisappointedby
lacklustreeconomicperformance,andtheyblamethegovernmentofPrimeMinister
Medvedevandhisliberalmonetaristteam.MeanwhilePutinrisesabovetheblamegame,
butthegovernmentislessandlesspopular.

-AstheRoubledrops,eventheratherpro-Kremlinmass-circulationnewspaperKP(full
disclosure:IwriteanoccasionalcolumnfortheKP)publishedacallfortheeconomyand
financeministerstoresignortobefired.ThereisaverylittlechancethatMrPutinwilltake
thisadviceandcleanhisgovernmentstables.

-Hecouldbeefuphiscreditbydumpingsome(orall)ofhisministers,butPutinisstubborn
andunusuallyloyaltohiscolleagues.Noaccusationhaseverconvincedhimtodismissa
manofhisteam.HisformerdefenceministerMrSerdyukovhasallegedlybeeninvolvedin
someshadydealing,whileSerdyukov'sparamourandassistantamassedmillionsby
sellingprimeMODassetstohercronies.Still,Putindidnotdumphim,andsavedhimfrom
jail.(HehadtoresigntobecomeaCEO,whilesheservedafewweeksinprison,atmost).

-Lastweek,theoppositionleaderMrNavalnyairedsomeheavychargesagainstAttorney
GeneralChayka.Forhisdefence,Chaykasaidthatthemanbehindthecampaignisthe
notoriousMrBrowder.BrowderisanAmericancrookwhomanagedtoappropriatemany
high-qualityRussianassetsforpenniesduringYeltsin'sprivatisation.Eventuallyhewas
forcedtopartwithhislootandhehasbeensentencedtomanyyearsofjailinabsentia.
Browderisslime,nodoubt,butitisaweakdefenceforChayka.Still,Putinrefusedtodrop
Chaykaoreventoinitiateanindependentinvestigationofhisallegedcrimes.

-PutinstandsbythemosthatedpoliticianofYeltsin'sera,MrAnatolyChubays.The
FinancialTimescalledhimFathertotheOligarchs.Afterleavingthegovernment,Chubays
hasbeenappointedtoleadtheRUSNANO,astate-ownedcorporationnotoriousforits
embezzlementandwaste.Putinsavedhimmanytimesoverfromprosecution.

-Putinwent,hatinhand,toYekaterinburgforthegrandopeningofBorisYeltsin'sMemorial
Centre(pricetag-ninebillionroubles)andreferredkindlytotheloathedlatePresidentwho
appointedhimhissuccessor.Peoplewerefuriousseeingtheirpresidentenjoyinghimself
amongthecarpetbaggersofYeltsin'sregime.

-CanyouimagineFoxTVtransmittingRussianpropaganda?InRussia,amajorchunkof
Russianmedia,state-ownedorsubsidisedbythetaxpayer,transmitspro-Westernand
anti-Russianagenda,allegedtheeminentfilmdirectorNikitaMichalkov,astaunch
supporterofPutin,inhisvideoseenbyovertwomillionviewersinafewdays.Hecalled
uponPutintoasserthislineandbanishtheenemieswithin,butstateTVrefusedto
broadcastthevideo.

-Putin'srecentpress-conferenceprovidedachanceformorecriticism.Besidethepoints
mentionedabove,thejournalistsaskedwhystateenterpriseCEOsarepaidmillionsof
dollarsayear,whileeverybodyelseiscalledupontotightenthebelt.Theyaskedwhythe
RussianCentralBankkeepsbuyingUSbondsandsupportstheUSDollarattheexpense
oftheRouble.Theyaskedwhyimportsubstitutiondoesnotworketc.

Theseareprotestsfromthepro-Putincrowd,frompeoplewhosupportedhistakeoverof
CrimeaandhisentryintoSyrianwar.Theycouldbearsomedeprivation,buttheyareupset
byPutin'scondoningthieves,byhisapparentcronyism,byhisoligarchfriends.Untilnow,
thecriticsavoidedattackingPutin,butthesearetheearlyswallows.DrStepanSulakshin,
theheadofaMoscowthinktank,publiclyaccusedPutinofknowinglyleadingRussiainto
furtherdegradation.

ThisbubblingdissatisfactionofPutin'ssupportersmayyetturnmoredangerousforthe
presidentthanthe2011Frondeofhishipsterenemies.Meanwhile,head-strongMrPutin
doesnotwishtoyieldground,sacrificesomeofmorehatedministersandCEOs,orattune
internalpoliciestopublicexpectations.Perhapsheisright,andthingsarenotwhatthey
appear,butjusticemustbeseen,notonlydone.

TalkingTurkeywithIsrael

TheTurkishfrictioncausedbyErdogan'sdecisiontoshootdowntheRussianbomberis
anothersourceofPutin'sblues.HehadspentalotofeffortnurturingrelationswithTurkey.
Allthiseffortwentdownthedrain.Therearemultimillionprojects,fromagaspipelineto
tourism.Allthatwascutdownatonce.Putin'splanstodelivergastoEuropebypassingthe
hostileUkrainecollapsed.ThisisahugesetbackfortheRussianpresident.

Therhetoricbetweentheleadersbecameacrimonious.HotheadsinRussiaspeakof
seizingtheBosporusandDardanelles,ofturningIstanbulintoConstantinopleandplanting
thecrossontheancientStSophiachurch.TheTurkishpresidentthreatenedtooccupy
Russiawithinoneweek-withhelpofNATO.

Turkey'schoiceisaresultofitsover-involvementinSyria.Withsomuchinvestment,
ErdoganwasloathtoseeSyriagone.WhilehisdecisiontodowntheRussianjetwas
ratherextreme,therelationsalreadyweretense.

Putin'striptoErevanandhiscondemnationof"TurkishgenocideoftheArmeniansin1915"
wasanunnecessaryprovocation.Nootherworldleaderdidit,butFrancoisHollandeof
FrancewhoflewinfortwohoursandproceededtoBaku,thecapitalofAzeriTurksthus
levellingtheplayingfield.IactuallycalleduponPutintoavoidthisstep,butthestrong
Armenianlobbyinsistedonthistrip.

Afterwards,therewasasupposedleak(inreality:afake)ofaharshandinsulting
conversationbetweenPutinandtheTurkishambassador.IcheckedwiththeAmbassador
andothersides.Itwasafake,butthisfakehasbeenspreadinmillionsofsitesandposts.

However,the$64,000questionisaboutSyria:willitbecomeavassalstatetothe
reconstitutedOttomansorwillitremainasovereignstatewithstrongtiestoRussia.
RussiathoughtithasastrongerhandasaninviteeoftheSyrianlegitimategovernment
TurkeydeniedBashar'slegitimacy.

TheriftbetweenTurkeyandRussiabecameafact.ItsmainbeneficiariesweretheUS-
andIsrael.Forthelastfiveyears,therelationsbetweenIsraelandTurkeywerehostile,
sinceIsraelicommandosmassacredninepeaceactivistsonboardtheTurkishvesselNavi
Marmara.InfaceoftheRussianthreat,theTurksagreedtomakepeacewithIsrael.

Israelisinvolvedintheconflictmorethanitadmits.TheRussianshaspublishedtheir
evidenceofDaeshoilbeingsmuggledtoTurkeybyTurkishcompanies.Thiscausedalotof
indignationinRussiaandelsewhere.Howdotheydaretobuystolenoilandfinancethe
terrorists!

TheRussiansforgottomentionthatthesmuggledoilgoestoIsrael.Israelisthemain
buyerofoilproducedbytheKurdsandbyDaesh.Thiswasreportedandcorroboratedby
theFTandbyAlArabyalJadeed.TheRussianmediaavoidedthetopic,asPutincherishes
hisgoodrelationswithNetanyahu.

Lastweek,IsraelisattackedsuburbsofDamascusandkilledsomeRussianallies,
Hezbollahfighters.Again,Russianstookitquietly.Noneofindignationcausedbydowning
ofthebomberseepedintotheRussianmedia.

Israelsupportsal-Nusra,declaredaterroristorganisationbytheUN.Thisisnotasecret:
recentlytheDailyMailpublishedareportglorifyingIsraelisoldierssavinglivesofthe
Islamistfighters.ThousandsofwoundedguerrillasreceivedmedicalassistanceinIsraeli
hospitalsandwentbacktofightBashar.

IsraelhasagoodworkingrelationswithDaesh,too.IwastoldthatDaeshtroopsentered
thePalestiniancampalYarmukbeingequippedwithlonglistsofPalestinianactivists.They
wereassembledandpubliclyexecuted.ThePalestiniansthinkthatDaeshreceivedthe
namesfromIsraelisecretserviceandactedupontheirrequest.Moreover,Daeshnever
everattackedaZionisttarget.

Putin-andRussianmediadidnotsayawordonthat.PerhapsPutinisrightRussiadoes
notneedsuchastrongenemyasIsrael,sinceIsraelileaderscansay"Jump,UncleSam,"
andUncleSamwillask"Howhigh?"However,theycouldtonedowntheirindignation
regardingTurkishoilsmuggling,TurkishhelptotheguerrillasandotherTurkishmisdeeds.

Israelisobjectivelyanenemy:itisanenemyofRussia'salliesHezbollahandIranitwants
dismembermentofSyriainordertokeepGolanHeightsforgooditprefersaSomalised
Syriatoahealthyandstrongone.ButNetanyahuplayshishandcautiouslydespitehis
feelingofinvulnerability.

TheIsraeliattackontheDamascussuburbstookplacedespitetheRussianC-400
operatinginSyria.ExpertssaytheC-400hasbeenplacedinLatakiaanditcan'teffectively
protecttheskiesabovetheSyriancapital,whiletheC-300purchasedbytheSyriansand
locatedinDamascushasbeenhitbyIsraelis.Meanwhile,theIsraeliAirForceistrainingat
avoidingandcopingwithaC-300inCyprus,asthatcountryhasaC-300ofitsown,
recentlyboughtfromtheRussians.

PutinhasnothingtogainfromconfrontationwithIsraelIsraelpreferstohaveitsway
withoutfightingtheRussians.Perhaps,soonerorlater,theIsraeliandRussianAirForces
willjoustbutmeanwhilebothsidesprefertopostponethatmoment.

PutinhopesErdoganwillgiveuponSyria.Thisisnotaneasytask,butnotanimpossible
one,either.Forthat,PutinmustworkwithPresidentObama-orwiththenextAmerican
President.

PutinvsWesternLeaders

ItisoftensaidthatPresidentObamaisaweakleader.Idonotthinkso.Heisawilyand
sophisticatedplayer.HevoidseveryagreementhiscountrymadewithRussia.Therewere,
andareagreementsgalore:fromMinsktotherecentUNSCresolutions.Atfirst(and
second)sight,theagreementsfollowtheRussianline.Otherwise,theRussianswouldnot
signthem.However,afterawhileObamaoffersadifferentinterpretation.Iwouldnotliketo
argueagainsthiminacourtoflaw.Heisastrickyasanylawyer.

Didhegiveuponthe"Assadmustgo"mantra?Itisnotclear.He,andhisSecretaryof
StateJohnKerrysometimessaythathemaystay,butquicklycontradictthemselvesand
insistonhisdeparture.Theyintroducenewandpeculiarideasdaily.Forexample,theysay
"OnlySunnismaydealwiththeSyriancrisis".ThisstrangeideainspiredtheSaudisand
theyevenclaimedtheyorganisedahugecoalitionofSunnistatestofightDaesh.Needless
tosay,withinafewdaysthis"coalition"vanishedlikedewundersunrays.

However,atthebottomline,ObamaplaysbyaColdWarscriptagainstRussia.Likea
drunkardaccusesothersofheavydrinking,heaccusedMittRomneyof"ColdWar
thinking",andwarnedPutinofhis"ColdWarthinking",butasadiscipleofZbigniew
Brzezinskihehardlycanthinkofanythingelse.EvenPentagongeneralscomplainedabout
thismatrixofhismind,saysSeymourHersh.

ThereisnothingPutinwantslessthananewroundoftheColdWar.HeisnotanewSoviet
leader.PeoplewhodreamofanewStalinarebarkingupawrongtree.Onemayregretit,
andmanyRussiansdoregretit,butPutinhasnogreatplansofsocialrearrangement.His
ambitionismoremodest:hewantsRussiatobeindependent,prosperous,great,and
equaltoothergreatnationslikeitwasin19thcentury.

LastweekIwasattheStPetersburgCulturalForum,agatheringofartists,curators,and
artministersfrom40countries,anditwasclearthatPutin'sRussiaismuchmore
interestedinitspre-revolutionarypastandinthe19thcenturyingeneral,thanin20thor
21stcenturyart.TheyperformedalostplaybyPuccini,theyreconstructedPetipaballets,
theyreadTolstoy.Theyrebuiltpalaces,theyfixedoldtheatres,eventhepre-revolutionary
circushadbeenreturnedtoitsoldgloryinclusiveofitsoldwell-forgottennameandthe
royalcircle.SomanyrestaurantsbearnamesremindingeveryoneoftheTsartimes.

ThereisawindofnostalgiainRussia,anditisforRussiaofLeoTolstoyandTchaikovsky.
PutinhasorderedthattheremainsoftheWhitegenerals,philosophers,artistsbebrought
backforburialontheRussiansoil.SovietandCommunistmemoriesaresuppressed.
Recently,PrimeMinisterMedvedevcalledforanotherboutofcommemorationsforStalin's
victims.Iamnotsurethatthisisawisepolicyperhapsitwouldbebettertoletpasttotake
careofitself.Buthereweare:Putinandhiscrowdareold-styleliberals,notsocial
reformers.Theydonotwanttoraisethebannerofrevolt.Theywanttofitintotheworldasit
is,butasequals.

Theproblemis,therearepeoplewhoarehell-bentonhegemonyandfull-spectrum
dominance,andtheyarenotlikelytoallowRussiatogoitsownway.Theywanttoimpose
theirrules,andsetinplacetheirdocilerulers.That'swhytheverymodestintentionsof
PutinmeetsomuchresistanceinNATOandthePentagon,intheWhiteHouseandin
Westminster.What'sworse,thesepeoplealreadycontrolthemainstreampoliticsofmany
countries,fromtheUStoJapan,toFranceandSweden.Itdoesnotmatterwhichofthe
mainstreampoliticianswinelections,theresultisthesame.

Putin's(andRussia's)hopelaysinpoliticiansoutsidethecontrolledmainstream.Donald
Trumpisagoodexample.PutinisnotparticularlyinterestedinUSinternalpoliticsandinMr
Trump'sunusualproposals.ThisisaninternalmatteroftheUS,andPutinsteersclearofit,
likehewantstheUStosteerclearofRussia'sinternalmatters.Forhim,whatisimportant,
isthatTrump'sAmericawouldnottrytodominatetheworldandimposeitsagenda.The
moralquestionwhetherTrump'sideasaboutMuslimsorLatinosareloftyorbaseisa
questionfortheAmericanpeopletodecide.Putinandmanyotherforeignleaderswant
America'snon-interferenceintheirinternalaffairs.

TherudeMr.Trumpseemstobethecandidateleastlikelytopushthebuttonfornuclear
suicideofmankind.MuchlesslikelythanniceMrsClintonwhocouldnukeRussiabecause
Russiansdonotcelebrategaymarriages.Remember,hernicehusbandbombedBelgrade
becausethenastySerbsdidnotallowforthesecessionofCroats(orwasitAlbanians?)

Trump-oranystraightforwarddecentpoliticianwhodoesnottakeordersfromtheMasters
ofDiscourse-wouldbeabletoplayballwithMrPutin,byclassicalrulesofinternational
law.TrumpandPutincouldreturntheconceptofsovereigntytoitsprivilegedposition.This
wouldendmanywars.ThewarinSyriabeganwhenMrObamaandMrHollandesaid
"Assadmustgo".Bytheclassicalrules,nostatemayinterfereintheaffairsofanother
sovereignstate.FromtheRussianpointofview,thewarinSyriaisfirstofallawarfor
sovereigntyandagainstglobalImperialvassaldom.

TheRussianswanttolighttheirChristmastreesandwishMerryChristmasandgowith
theirwomenandchildrentoaChristianchurchwithoutbeingscoldedbytheObamasand
ClintonsofthisworldforinsufficientpoliticalcorrectnessandfailuretomentionKwanzaa.

That'swhyitisimportantforallofusifwemayhopetoreachpeace,thisChristmasorthe
nextone.

[returntoContents]

#5
Kremlin.ru
December22,2015
FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum

VladimirPutinattendedtheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
TheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForumistakingplaceinMoscowonDecember21-22.
Theplenarysession,attendedbyrepresentativesofthenationalITindustryandrelevant
ministriesandagencies,isdedicatedtoinitiativesforthelong-termdevelopment
programmeoftheRussianInternetsegmentandbranchesoftheeconomyusinginternet
technologies.

Priortotheplenarysession,thePresidentattendedanexhibitionofinnovativeprojects,
wherewasshown,inparticular,developmentsinbanktechnologies,cyber-protectionfor
industrialfacilitiesandthosedirectedatenhancingtheaccessibilityofpublicservicesfor
thepublic.

VladimirPutinalsohadaconversationwithForumparticipants.

PresidentofRussiaVladimirPutin:Goodafternoon,friends.

Togetherwithyourboard,wehavejusthadadetaileddiscussionoftheissuesyou
consideredyesterdayregardingspecificbranchesoftheeconomy.Ifounditinteresting.I
hopewehavemanagedtoagreeoncertainmatters.IcanseemyaideIgorShchegolev
here,theformerMinisterandnowmyPresidentialAide.Weagreedthatifourcolleagues
decidetodoso,thenwewillbehappytohandovertheresponsibilityforeverythingyou
agreedonandproposedasnecessaryforjointeffortstopromoteyourinitiativestooneof
yourcolleagues,whomIinvitedtoworkatthePresidentialExecutiveOfficewithMr
Shchegolev.ThiswillallowustopromoteyourideaswithinthePresidentialExecutive
Officeaswell,andalsowithintheexecutivebodiesintheGovernmentandtheregionsof
theRussianFederation,whichisnolessimportant.

Generally,inthepastyearstheInternethascertainlybecomepartofourdailylives.
Moreover,ithasbecomeaseparateindustrypracticallyallovertheworld,andyouspoke
aboutthisyesterday.Russiaiskeepingabreastofthings,ofcourse.Imaybesayingvery
generalthingsnotintendedforthisaudience,maybeforthosewhoarestandingtherewith
thecameras,sothatpeopleinthiscountrywillfindoutmoreaboutthis:Russiahasthe
largestnumberofInternetusers-inexcessof80millionpeople,with62millionofthem
goingonlineonadailybasis.Asoneoftheboardmemberssaid,peoplelookattheir
phonesabout300timesadaytoseewhatisgoingonintheworld,orineverydaylife,
thingsthatinterestpeoplewhousetheInternet.

ThenumberofcommercialInternetusersisalsogrowingrapidly.TheInternetmarket
accountsfor16percentoftheGDP.Remoteaccesstechnologiesareextensivelyusedto
providepublicandmunicipalservices,whichIamveryhappytosay,becausejustrecently
wewereonlybeginninghere.Generally,therehasbeengoodprogress.Intheprevious
year,morethanathirdofallpublicandmunicipalservicesbecameavailableonline.

ThesignificanceandinfluenceoftheInternetareconstantlygrowing.Weneedtousethe
Internetasadriverofmodernisationfortheentirecountry(thisisanundisputedfactand
nobodyhasanydoubtaboutit,andwearereadytohelpandsupportyouinyour
endeavours)toraisethequalityoflife,tocreateanewtechnologicalbasisforthenational
economyand,ofcourse,forthesocialspheres-educationandhealthcare.

TheInternetInitiativesDevelopmentFundhasbecomeoneoftheinstrumentsavailablefor
resolvingthesetasks.Wesetituptwoyearsagoanditseemstobedoingwell.Italready
has6billionrublesatitsdisposal.Overthe2.5yearsofitswork,theFundhasaddedover
170projectstoitsportfoliodesignedtoresolvespecificissuesfacingbothindividualsand
businesses.

Wedefinitelyneedtodevelopastrategyforthelong-termdevelopmentoftheRussian
Internet,takingintoconsiderationtheoveralldevelopmenttendenciesoftheworldwide
web.Ifullyagreewithyouthat,bearinginmindtheoveralltendenciesandwithgreat
respectforourpartnersandcompetition,wemustcreatecommonlivingandworking
conditionsforallonthismarket.Nobody,primarilyournationalparticipants,shouldbeputin
asituationthatwouldmakeyoulesscompetitive.Ifullyagreewiththosewhoreferredtothe
decisionswearemakingintherealeconomy,inindustryandagriculture,saying:wedo
offercertainbenefitstoRussianmarketplayers,tonationalproducers,sowhynotdothe
samehere.Iagree:wearereadytoconsiderthisanddosomething,provided,ofcourse,
thatitdoesnotviolateourWTOcommitments.Iamcertainwecanfindappropriate
solutions.
Iwouldliketowishyousuccess.Thankyouverymuch.

[returntoContents]

#6
www.rt.com
December22,2015
'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremainsdesperate'

Outsideforcescannotdictatewhatacountry'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,but
that'swhat'shappeninginAfghanistan,saysMedeaBenjamin,cofounderofleft-wingNGO
CodePinktoldRT.

TwoattackstookplaceinAfghanistanonMonday.Threerocketshitthediplomaticareain
Kabulsomewayfromthecenterofthecity.Thathappenedafteramotorbikesuicide
bombercarriedoutanattackontheBagramairbasekillingsixUStroops.

Meanwhile,theTalibanisaggressivelypushingbackintoHelmandprovince.Themilitants
aresaidtobeclosetooverrunningthekeycityofSangin.

USSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhasdescribeddevelopmentsinAfghanistanaspositive.
However,AmericanpoliticalactivistMedeaBenjamindoesn'tagreecallingitaridiculous
statement.

"TheUShasspentprobablyatrilliondollarsinAfghanistananditremainsoneofthe
poorestcountriesintheworldoneoftheworstplacesforwomentohavechildrenoneof
theworstratesofilliteracyamongwomen,"shetoldRT.

TheUSinvadedAfghanistanin2001afterthe9/11attackscarriedoutonUSsoil,and
accordingtoBenjamin,"itiscertainlynotacountrythatafter14yearsofbeingoccupiedby
therichestcountryintheworldhasmuchtospeakforitintermsofdevelopment."

IslamicState(IS,formerlyISIS/ISIL)isnowfightingtheTalibanwhichcouldmakethings
evenworsefortheAfghanpeople.

ActivistarguesthatitisterriblethatafteralloftheseyearsandthebillionsofdollarstheUS
hasputintotraininglocalAfghanforcestheyarestillnotabletocontroltheirowncountry.

"Ithinkitisareflectionofthefactthatoutsideforcescomingincannotdictatewhata
country'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,"saidBenjamin.

Shesuggeststherehasalwaysbeenaneedforapoliticalsolutiontotheproblemsin
AfghanistanandtheUSshouldputitsmoneyintodevelopingthecountryinsteadofthe
military.

Speculatingonpossiblesolutions,theactivistsaidtherehavebeenconstantattemptsat
talkwiththeTaliban.However,shebelievesthattheyneedtogetseriousaboutthat.

"JohnKerryshouldputsomeofhisdiplomaticenergiesintofindingapoliticalsolutionthatis
goingtounfortunatelyhavetoincludetheTalibanaspartofatransition.TheTalibanare
localpeopleandtheycan'tbewishedaway,"BenjamintoldRT.

"ButIthinktheremaining10,000UStroopsarenotgoingtobeenoughtodictatetothe
Afghangovernmentwhatitspolicyshouldbe,"shecontinued.

Benjaminsaidthatithastobeapoliticalsolutionandallenergyandresourcesshouldbe
putintothatgoal.

'ObamaadministrationwantstopushSEALabusesinAfghanistanundertherug'

Meanwhile,aNewYorkTimesreporthasaccusedtheUSNavyofcoveringuptheabuseof
AfghandetaineeswhichtookplaceinMay2012.
TheNavalCriminalInvestigativeServicelaunchedaninvestigationintoacasewhere
tortureresultedinthedeathofamandetainedbyUSNavySEALS.Despiteeyewitness
accountsagainsttheUSservicemen,thenavyprobedismissedthecharges,claimingthe
evidencedidn'tsupporttheallegedmisconduct.

CriminaldefenseattorneyandformerCIAofficerJackRicespeakingaboutdetaineeabuse
saidthatinacaselikethisthereshouldnothavebeenaminimalinvestigation.

"Thisshouldhavebeenafull-blowncriminalinvestigation,whichisfarmoreseriousonthe
militaryside,"hetoldRT.

Headdedthatiftheywantedtotakethistotheextreme,theycouldhavebeenchargedin
FederalCourt,whichisaciviliancourtintheUS.

"Baseduponthefactthattherewasadeathinthiscaseitshouldhavenotbeen
investigatedasitwas,"Ricesaid.

Ricearguesthattheinvestigationcouldbereopened"basedupontheseriousnessofthe
caseandthefactthatessentiallyitwasdismissed."

"Itisdisturbingthattheyseemtomakeadecisiontotreatthisasinconsequentiallyasthey
havereallybaseduponthedeathofoneofthedetainees,"hecontinued.

TheSEAL'scommandersaidtheevidenceprovidedinthereportwasinconsistent.

Ricesaiditwaspossiblethereareinconsistenciesinthereport."Butthatinitselfitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldn'tgoforwardwithaninvestigation,"headded.

AccordingtoRice,heregularlyencountersreportsthathaveinconsistencieswithinthem.

"Thatdoesn'tstoptheinvestigation,thatdoesn'tstoptheprosecutionjustbecausesome
thingsdon'tcompletelyaddupdoesnotmeanyoushouldnotcontinuetodigitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldnotpotentiallyevenchargesomebodywithseriouscriminal
offenses,"headded.

TheformerCIAofficerconsiderstheUSgovernmentistryingtoburytheinvestigationitself.

"Thefactthatwhattheydidwasdivertthistoaminimalinvestigationandtothekindof
investigationandprocessforinconsequentialevents,ratherthansomethingfarmore
seriousreallytellsmethattheyaresortoftryingtopushitaway,totrytoputitunderthe
rug."

In2009PresidentObamasaidhedidn'tthink2000picturesoftortureshouldbereleased
becausethiswouldendangerUStroopsabroad.RicearguesthatPresidentObama
decidedhewasnotgoingtoreleasetheAbuGhraibphotos.

"Whenhewasrunningforofficehepromisedhewantedtransparencyandhewantedthe
Americanpeopleandtheworldtoseethephotosthemselves,"hetoldRT.

Inconclusionhesaidthat"thelikelihoodofsuccessinreopeningthisisnotverycertainat
thispoint."

"Myexpectationisitwillnotbereopened,"Ricepredicted.

[returntoContents]

#7
TheNationalInterest
December23,2015
America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia
Nowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,andwhy.
ByMichaelPeck
MichaelPeck,afrequentcontributortotheNationalInterest,isadefenseandhistorical
writerbasedinOregon.HisworkhasappearedinForeignPolicy,WarIsBoringandmany
otherfinepublications.
IftheColdWarhadturnedthermonuclear,weknowthattheUnitedStatesandSovietUnion
wouldhavebeendevastated.

Butnowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,and
why.TheU.S.governmenthasfinallydeclassifiedthe1950sStrategicAirCommandtarget
list,whichwouldhavedispatchedAmericanbombersandmissilesonnuclearstrikes
acrosstheCommunistworld.

"SAClistedover1200citiesintheSovietbloc,fromEastGermanytoChina,alsowith
prioritiesestablished,"accordingtotheNationalSecurityArchive,thenon-governmental
organizationwhichrequestedthedeclassifiedinformation."MoscowandLeningradwere
priorityoneandtworespectively.Moscowincluded179DesignatedGroundZeros(DGZs)
whileLeningradhad145,including'population'targets."
[http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-
First-Ever/]

Butatleastintheory,thiswouldnothavebeenwantondestructionorterrorbombing.There
wassupposedtobemethodbehindthenuclearmadness.SAC'sprioritywastodestroy
SovietairpowerbeforeSovietbombers-thiswasbeforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe
1960s-couldstrikeAmericanandWesternEuropeantargets.Some1,100airfieldswere
targetedandprioritized,withtheSovietTu-16BadgerbomberbasesinBykhovandOrsha
inByelorussiaatthetopofthelist.OnceSovietairwarcapabilityhadbeendestroyed,and
assumingbothsideswereinanystatetocontinuethewar,thenSovietindustrywouldhave
beenbombednext.

Andsowouldalotofinnocents.TheSACtargetlist,compiledin1956andpublishedas
partofa1959nuclearweaponsplanningstudy,deliberatelyincludedcivilianpopulations.

TheSACplanspecified"the'systematicdestruction'ofSovietblocurban-industrialtargets
thatspecificallyandexplicitlytargeted'population'inallcities,includingBeijing,Moscow,
Leningrad,EastBerlin,andWarsaw,"notedNationalSecurityArchiveresearchers.
"Purposefullytargetingcivilianpopulationsassuchdirectlyconflictedwiththeinternational
normsoftheday,whichprohibitedattacksonpeopleperse(asopposedtomilitary
installationswithciviliansnearby)."

Mostofthe800pagesofdocumentsconsistoflistsoftargetsandtheirassociated
alphanumerictargetnumbers.SACplannersassumedin1959theycouldstrikewith2,130
B-52andB-47bombers,RB-47reconnaissanceaircraft,andF-101fighterescorts.In
addition,therewouldbe376nuclear-tippedcruiseandbomber-launchedmissiles,aswell
asearlyintermediate-rangemissiles.The1959studyalsostatesthatmissiles-thiswas
beforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe1960s-hadsuchalowchanceofdestroyingtheir
targetsthatmannedbomberswouldbetheprimaryweapons.

BecauseSACwassofixedonquicklyknockingoutSovietairpower,H-bombswouldhave
beendroppedtoexplodeonthegroundratherthaninmid-air.Whileairburstswouldhave
producedmoreheatandradiation,thefocusonwasachievingmaximumblastdamageto
destroySovietaircraftandbases,despitesomeunintendedsideeffects."Whilethe
objectionstosurfaceburstandtheprobabilityofradioactivefalloutaffectingfriendlyforces
andpeoplehavebeenconsidered,therequirementtowintheAirPowerBattleis
paramounttoallotherconsiderations,"saidtheSACstudy.

However,SACdefinedtheSovietairpowerinfrastructurequitebroadly,toincludeany
commandandindustrialcentersthatcouldsupportaRussianaircampaign.ThusMoscow
waslistedashavingnumerousmilitarycommandcenters,aircraftandmissilefactories,
atomicweaponslaboratoriesandoilrefineries.

DespitebeingaNuclearAgeforce,SAC'sstrategymoreresembledtheU.S.bomber
offensiveagainstGermanyandJapaninWorldWarIIthantwenty-firstcenturywarfare.
ConcentratingontheSovietairforceanditsinfrastructurewouldhavebeenfamiliargoals
toB-17andB-29commanders(whichwereindeedthepeoplewhoranSACinthe1950s,
includingCurtisLemay).Thoughitalsoseemsaquaintlylong-warstrategy,asifthe
Sovietswerereallygoingtocapableofmass-producingbombersandnuclearweapons
aftertheinitialnuclearexchange.Thebeliefthatmissilesweretoounreliable,andonly
mannedbomberscouldbetrusted,soundsmuchlikethedronevs.mannedaircraftdebate
today.
DidSAC'stargetingstrategymakesense?Thebetterquestionis,whocares?Fortunately
forthehumanrace,weneverhadachancetofindout.

[returntoContents]

#8
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:RecappingtheYearofLiterature
TheYearofLiteratureofferedmuchtoenjoyforwriters,bloggersandsweetloversalike.
RBTHhascollectedallthemostinterestingfactsandfiguresfromthisliterary
extravaganza.
ANASTASIASKORONDAEVA,ROSSIYSKAYAGAZETA

TheceremonyofpassingthebatonfromtheYearofLiteraturetotheYearofCinemawas
heldinSt.PetersburgonDec.14.Alltheattentiononliteraturethisyearhasthrownup
someinterestingstatistics.

1)Thewinnerofanarratingcompetitionheldduringthefestivalbookmarkettookhome55
poundsoffruitandvegetables.Duringthefirstweekendoffall,shelvesfilledwithbooks
wereinterspersedwiththeusualonesholdingproduceatMoscow'sDanilovskyfoodcourt
andmarket.Surprisedshopperswereabletotakehomegoodliteraturealongwiththeir
normalpurchases.

2)Continuingtheculinarytheme,120litersof"literaryjam"wascookedaroundRussia.
ThestaffofRossiyskayaGazetafoundoldrecipesandmadejamoutdoorsinwriters'
estatesfortheentiresummer.TheymadetheplumdessertfromAnnaKareninain
Tolstoy'sYasnayaPolyanaestateinTulaRegionandusedlocalapplesfromSergei
Yesenin'snativevillageofKonstantinovoinRyazanRegiontomakeajamcelebratinghis
birthday.Readmore>>>

3)InDecember,1300peopletook60hourstoreadLeoTolstoy'sWarandPeaceinalive
broadcast.ThreemonthsbeforeNatashaRostovaandAndreiBolkonskytookthestage,
anotherlivereadingproject,ChekhovAlivebyGoogle,sawthegreatplaywright's
charactersbroadcastovertheinternetfor24hoursstraight.

4)FromJune25-28,RedSquarehosteditsfirsteverbookfair,atwhichmorethan500,000
booksfrom300publishinghousesacross50regionsofRussiawerepresented.FromSt.
Basil'sCathedraltotheStateHistoricalMuseumthesquarehosteddiscussions,alibrary,a
writer'sofficeandevenachildren'splayground.Morethan200,000peopleattendedthe
writers'seminars,concertsandtheatricalperformancesthatformedpartoftheyear's
biggestliteraryevent.Readmore>>>

5)Literaturealsocaughtthepublicimaginationawayfromthebig-namefestivals,markets
andawards.SergeiNifashev,astreetcleanerandbloggerfromBlagoveshchensk,
collectedmorethan100rareeditionsinhisbasement,findingallofthemamongthecity's
trash!Whenhewentthroughthebookshefoundoldmoneyandphotos.Ararefindindeed,
andnotonewerecommendtryingtorepeat-therecouldbeallkindsofnastybugslurking
amongthetrash.

AnabridgedversionofthearticlefirstpublishedinRussianbyRossiyskayaGazeta:
http://www.rg.ru/2015/12/14/goda.html

[returntoContents]

#9
Reuters
December23,2015
Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall
STAIKY,UKRAINE|BYALESSANDRAPRENTICE

PaintisflakingonthedampwallsandcrackedceilingsofthesmallhospitalintheUkrainian
villageofStaikyandmuchoftheequipmentisover30yearsold.
Runninghotwaterisnotguaranteedandthehospital,servingabout2,800peopleinStaiky
andothervillages,hasnotbeenrefurbishedsinceSoviettimes.

Thereisalsolittlehopeofachangeforthebetteramongmedicalstaffwhorelyon
charitabledonations,oftenfromlocalbusinessmen,tobuyevenbasicmedicinesandthe
petrolneededtovisitpatientsinremoteareas.

AreformdrivelaunchedbytheWestern-leaninggovernmentinstalledafterapro-Moscow
president,ViktorYanukovich,wasoverthrowninapopularuprisinglastyearhasbecome
miredinbureaucraticinertia,argumentsandallegationsofcorruption.

"Idon'tknowwhoiswritingandcarryingoutreformsatthetoporiftheyhaveeverbeentoa
villageandseenhowpeopleliveandwithwhatmedicalservices,"saidfamilydoctorNadiya
MartynenkoinStaiky,aclusterofdilapidatedone-storyhousesontheRiverDnieper,an
hour'sdrivefromthecapitalKiev.

Shesaidstatefundscoveronlytheelectricityandmeagerstaffsalaries,andthatoverthe
pastdecade"they'vecuteverythingtheycouldandevenwhattheyshouldn't...it'svery
precarious."

Staikyisfarfromunique.Soviet-erahospitalsacrossthecountryof42millionare
crumbling,underpaymentofmedicalstaffcontinuestofosterasystemofbribe-takingand
Ukraine'spoorvaccinationratehasplaceditonablacklistalongsidesomeoftheworld's
poorestcountries,includingSouthSudan.

CorruptionhasplaguedUkrainesincethecountrygainedindependencefromtheSoviet
Unionin1991.ButunderYanukovich,itbecamemuchworse.

HealthMinisterAlexanderKvitashvili,oneofseveralforeignersappointedtoministerial
positionsinthehopethattheiroutsiderstatusandinternationalexperiencewouldhelp
Ukrainemakegoodonreformpromises,hopedtorecreatesuccessfulreformscarriedout
inhisnativeGeorgia.

Ayearafterhisappointment,thehealthbilloutliningreformsisstuckinparliament.

"It'sfrustrating.Therearevestedinterests-they'reeverywhere...Workingwiththe
parliamentwedifferonwhatabasicunderstandingofreformis,"KvitashvilitoldReuters.

Withoutacompletereboot,"financiallythesystemwillcollapseinaboutayear,ifnotfaster,
becausethereisnowayUkrainecanincreasespendingtoasustainablelevel,"hesaid.

DEMOCRACYSTRUGGLING

ThestalledhealthbillisoneofmanyexamplesoftheslowprogressUkraineismakingin
reformingitseconomy,promptingWesternbackerstoquestionKiev'scommitmentto
endingcrookedpracticesthatpushedthecountrytothebrinkofbankruptcy.

Squabblesinparliamenthaveheldupotherbills.Someofthesearerequiredforthe
disbursementoffundsundera$40-billioninternationalbailoutprogram,andKiev'sWestern
backerswarnthatitsattempttorebuilditselfontransparent,democraticlinesisunder
threat.

Ukraine'sprogresshasalsobeenhamperedbyaconflictintheeastofthecountrybetween
governmentforcesandpro-Russianseparatistsandadeteriorationinrelationswith
Russia,whichannexedtheCrimearegionin2014.

Thehealthministry'sreformswerefinalisedinAprilandbroughttoparliamentforapproval
inJulybutdiscussionshavedraggedon,Kvitashvilisaid.Ashedidso,heturnedoffhis
cellphone,itsringtonesettothethemetunefromTVseriesGameofThrones,inwhich
rivalclansbattleforinfluence.

Partoftheplanfocusesonseparatingtheprocurementanddeliveryofhealthservices,a
systemwhichuntilnowhasallowedmostcontractstobebrokeredinbackroomdealswith
littleexternaloversight.
AccordingtoareportbytheAnticorruptionActionCenter,aUkrainiancivilsociety
organization,onlysixoutof6,500authorizedpharmaceuticalcompaniestookpartinthe
procurementofHIVdrugsinUkrainein2013,sharingamongthemselvesamarketworth
$30.9million.

Thesalariesofdoctorsaretoolowtoeradicatetheuseofbribesbetweenpatientand
practitioner,whichmeansmanyofthehealthindustry'sfinancialdealingsaredoneinthe
shadows.

"YoucanseeheaddoctorsdrivingPorschesandhavingVertuphones,butthehospitalsare
inanabysmalcondition,"Kvitashvilisaid.

The"informal"partofthehealthcareeconomyamountstoabout$7billionperyear-more
thantriplethesizeofthestate'sannualexpenditureonhealth,heestimated.

FrustrationoverthelackofprogresspromptedKvitashvilitotenderhisresignationinthe
summer,onlytohaveitrejectedbyparliament.

Somecommentatorshavesaidhelackstheknow-howtonavigatethewebofallegiances
thatcontinuestobindUkraine'srulingclassdespiteavowedattemptstomoveonfromthe
politicalcronyismofthepast.

"Ibelievehewantsreforms,buthedoesn'ttotallyunderstandtherealityofUkraine-thatif
someonepromisestheirsupportitdoesn'tmeantheywon'ttryandtripyouup,"doctorand
healthcarecommentatorEvgenyKomarovskysaid

AlexandraUstinova,fromtheAnticorruptionActionCenter,alsosaidtherewasaconflictof
interestsinsomeoftheappointmentsattheministry,suchasbringinginalawyerwho
usedtoworkforapharmaceuticalcompanyownedbyamemberofparliamentfrom
PresidentPetroPoroshenko'sparty.

"CATASTROPHE"

GiovannaBarberis,theUkrainerepresentativeoftheUnitedNationsInternationalChildren's
EmergencyFund(UNICEF),said"theobstacles(toreforms)arehugeandsometimesit
looksprettygrimbecausethepaceisextremelyslow."

ThestartofanimmunizationcampaignfollowinganoutbreakofpolioonSept.1was
delayedbyseveralweeks,promptingEllynOgden,worldwidepoliocoordinatorforthe
UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID),tocriticizethe"highestlevels
ofgovernment"foraninadequateresponse.

Shesaid"noothercountryintheworldisinsuchadiresituationorshowssuchdisregard
forprotectingchildrenagainstchildhooddiseases."

TheGlobalPolioEradicationInitiative,whichisspearheadedbytheWorldHealth
Organization,said:"Forsometime,Ukrainehasbeenacatastrophewaitingtohappen."

Ukrainedidnotbuydrugs,medicinesorvaccinesformostofthisyearasthehealth
ministrysoughttoapproveatemporaryprocurementsystemviainternationalorganizations
tobypassthecompromisedsystemthatKvitashvilihopestoreform.

ThetemporarysystemwasfinalisedinlateOctober,andUkraineplanstobuyaround$100
millionofvaccinesandmedicines,butsevereshortagesremain.

"Therearenoanti-diphtheriavaccinesinthecountry,"healthcarecommentator
Komarovskysaid.

MeanwhilethemoredrasticreformbillislanguishinginparliamentandKvitashvilisayshis
resignationisstillonthetable.

"Wellmyletterisstillthere.Ididnotwithdrawit.WewillseehowtheParliamentwillact,"
hesaidbyemail.

[returntoContents]
Forwardemail

Thisemailwassenttodonald.jensen8@gmail.combydavidjohnson@starpower.net|
RapidremovalwithSafeUnsubscribe|Aboutourserviceprovider.

Johnson'sRussiaList|6368CircleDrive|Chincoteague|VA|23336
From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/23/201511:14:00AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList

AsIrecallwehaveneverdiscussedKofman.(No3)

SentfrommyiPhone

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From:DavidJohnson<davidjohnson@starpower.net>
Date:December23,2015at12:19:39PMEST
To:donald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject:2015-#249-Johnson'sRussiaList
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Johnson'sRussiaList
2015#249
23December2015
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
GeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs*
www.ieres.org
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http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html
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donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.

"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"

"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee

DJ:Somelightholidayreading.MerryChristmas!

Inthisissue
TODAY
1.AP:WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW.
.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:FyodorLukyanov,Theworldin2015:Anostalgiafor
balance.Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
impossibilityofreturningtointeractiongovernedbyoldprinciples.Asglobalplayersstrive
forareturntotheirindividualperceptionofa"goldenage,"FyodorLukyanovconsiders
whichgeopoliticalmodelappearsthemostlikelyinthenearfuture.
3.http://warontherocks.com:MichaelKofman,TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis.
4.TheUnzReview:IsraelShamir,PutinBlues.
5.Kremlin.ru:FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
6.www.rt.com:'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremains
desperate'
7.TheNationalInterest:MichaelPeck,America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia.
Nowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,andwhy.
8.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta:Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:
RecappingtheYearofLiterature.
9.Reuters:Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall.

#1
AP
December22,2015
WINTERHEATWAVE,OFASORT,ENVELOPSUSUALLYFRIGIDMOSCOW
ByJIMHEINTZ

MOSCOW(AP)-It'susuallythecoldthat'sbitterinMoscowinDecember,butthisyearit's
thehumorthatbitesduringanunusualwarmspell.

Astemperaturesclimbedashighas7degreesCelsius(45degreesFahrenheit)inthe
Russiancapitalinrecentdays,ajokebegancirculatingontheInternet:Thiswasnature's
compensationforRussiansbeingunabletotakevacationsinEgyptandTurkeythisyear-
twotopdestinationsforRussianwinterholidays.

RussiabannedallitsairlinesfromflyingtoEgyptafteroneofitsairlinerswasbombedthere
inOctober,killingall224peopleonboard,andRussianchartertripstoTurkeywere
suspendedfollowingtheNov.24shootingdownofaRussianwarplane.

TheweatherisblamedoncyclonesintheAtlantic,spreadingwarmthandrainovermostof
westernRussia.

Although7Cisn'taheatwavebymoststandards,it'sanunsettlingchangeforacitywhere
temperaturesaverageminus6C(21F)inDecember-andithasbrokenrecordssetin
1936.

Worseyet,itjustseemssoun-Russian.

SomuchsothatatopRussianpoliticianfounditnecessarytopromisethatarealwinteris
ontheway.

"Therenecessarilywillbesnow,Iassureyou.Therewillbesnowonthe30th,"Sergei
Naryshkin,speakerofthelowerhouseoftheRussianparliament,declaredMonday.

"PeoplearetellingmethisisaEuropeanwinter,that'sgood,that'showit'ssupposedtobe.
AndItellthem'No,thisisnotaRussianwinter,'"complainedMariaArbuzova,aretiree
shoppingTuesdayataholidaymarketnearMoscow'sRedSquare.

Moscowisacitythatchoosestoembracewinterratherthanendureit.

Goodskitrailscanbereachedonthesubway,askijumpplungesdownahillattheedgeof
thecitycenterandoutdoorskatingrinksdotthecity.GorkyParkfloodsmanyofits
sidewalkstocreateamazeofskatingpathsandtheVDNKhcomplex,anextravaganzaof
SovietGothicbuildingsandfountains,hoststheworld'slargestrefrigeratedoutdoorrink,a
massive20,000squaremeters(aboutfiveacres).

Thoserinks,andothersinthecity,havebeenclosedsofarthisyear.A100-meter(320-
foot)iceslideerectedneartheKremlinisalsooutofbusiness,itsicelesswoodenstructure
asadreminderofthefunthat'sbeingmissed.

"Theweatherisnotmakingmeveryhappy,"saidamandressedasDedMoroz,the
RussiananalogueofSantaClaus,whogavehisnameonlyasAnton.
ButreliefmaycomebythetimeDedMorozmakeshisgift-givingroundsonNewYear's
Eve.
ForecastersexpecttemperaturesinMoscowtoreturntoaseasonablebelow-freezinglevel
onSaturdayorSunday.

[returntoContents]

#2
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Theworldin2015:Anostalgiaforbalance
Theyear2015hasdemonstratedasevereimbalanceintheworldorderandthe
impossibilityofreturningtointeractiongovernedbyoldprinciples.Asglobalplayersstrive
forareturntotheirindividualperceptionofa"goldenage,"FyodorLukyanovconsiders
whichgeopoliticalmodelappearsthemostlikelyinthenearfuture.
ByFyodorLukyanov
TheauthoristheeditorinchiefoftheRussiainGlobalPoliticsmagazineandheadof
researchattheValdaiInternationalDiscussionClub.

Theyear2015isthefirstinwhichno-oneiscontestingtheobviousanymore:thattheworld
systemisinasevereimbalance,onewhichkeepsgeneratingnewcrises.Manyrealized
thisalongtimeago,butwerereluctanttoadmitit,i.e.togiveupthecozyperceptiondating
backtothelate20thcenturythateverythingisgoingwellandinevitablerelapsescanbe
successfullycontained.

Forexample,Russia'sactionstoincorporateCrimeaandsupporttheanti-Maidan
movementsineasternUkrainewereviewedasonesuchrelapse.Theleadingpowers(in
termsoftheirimpactontheworldorder,i.e.theWest)tried-throughconsolidatedpolitical,
economicandpsychologicalpressure-tomaketheKremlinchangeitsbehaviorandreturn
"totherightsideofhistory."Inotherwords,theyproceededfromthepremisethatthenotion
of"asitshouldbe"exists.

ThepressureonRussiafailedtoproducethedesiredeffect,andthencamethefinal
turningpoint.InthecasewithSyria,no-oneknowsanymorewhatthis"asitshouldbe"is.
TheMiddleEastof2015hascometorepresentdespair:Themoreeffortismade,themore
obviousitisthat,first,sucheffortisineffective,andsecond,thatitisimpossibleinprinciple
torallytheparticipantsinthismulti-layeredconflictaroundasinglegoal.

ISIS:seekingtoresetthegame

Thetrendoftheyearisthehopelessdesiretoreturnto"thegoldenage,"witheachplayer
havingtheirownideaofthis.Themoststrikingexampleis,ofcourse,themain
troublemakeroftheMiddleEastregion,whichisnowcustomarilyreferredtoasDaesh
(knownintheWestasIslamicState,orISIS).Here,everythingisstraightforward:backto
thecaliphate,wheneverythingwasfairandsquaredownwiththeachievementsoftheso-
called"civilization"thatcolonizersforcedonthetruebelievers.

ThecertainpopularitythatradicalIslamistsfromwhatwasoncecalledMesopotamiaenjoy
intheWest,theinterestintheirideasandactionsisasignthatevenoutsideofthe
proposed"caliphate"peoplefeelanemptinessinsideandincreasinglylongforsomething
differentfromwhattheyhavenow.

Havingsaidthat,itisnotonlytheself-proclaimedcaliph,AbuBakral-Baghdadi,theleader
ofISIS,whohankersafteragoldenpast.Thosewhobelongtomainstreamglobalpolitics
lookbackintothepastforinspirationtoo-albeitanot-so-distantpast.

Ayearningforamorestableera

Thememorabledatesoftheyear2015areareminderofhistoricaleventslinkedtothe
establishmentofaparticularworldorder:the200thanniversaryoftheCongressofVienna,
the70thanniversaryoftheendofWorldWarIIandtheestablishmentoftheUN,the40th
anniversaryoftheHelsinkiFinalAct,the25thanniversaryoftheCharterofParisforaNew
Europe.

Uptotheendofthe20thcentury,thenotionofaworldorderwasalwaysaboutbalance.A
complexbalance,involvingnumerousplayers,aswasthecaseinthe19thcentury.Ora
relativelysimplebalance,asafterWorldWarII,whenthereemergedasystemofequal
dominanceoftwosuperpowers.Abalanceinevitablyenvisagedamutualrecognitionof
spheresofinfluenceinoneformoranother.ThatwasthefoundationfortheViennamodel,
theYaltasystem,theHelsinkiFinalAct.

Atfirstglance,itmayseemthatthe1990ParisCharter,whichdeclaredanendtospheres
ofinfluenceanddivisionlines,isbasedonadifferentprinciple.However,inpractice,ittoo
requiredabalance,notforconfrontationbutforrapprochement.Ineffect,thisiswhat
MikhailGorbachevdreamtof:Asfarashewasconcerned,theendoftheColdWarshould
havebeenbasedonaconvergence,anequalandmutualcomingtogetherofpreviously
competingblocs.Thebreak-upoftheSovietUnionshutthedooronthatoption:Russia
wasnotperceivedasasecondcenterinEurope.

Irrespectiveofwhatisbeingdeclaredofficially,anidealforRussiawouldbeareturnto
someformofagreedspheresofinfluence.HencethenostalgiaforViennaandYalta.The
idealfortheWestisthesituationofthe1990s,whenthespheresarenomoreandthe
influencehasbecomeuniversal.HencetheconstantreferencestoHelsinki(omitting,
however,tomentionthatcomponentoftheHelsinkiAccordsthatestablishedtheverysame
spheresofinterest)andParis,whichenvisagesacommonality.

Aproliferationofglobalactors

Neitherofthesenostalgia-inducingmodelscanbebroughtback.Whatmakestoday's
politicsdifferentfromtheeraof"worldorders"ishowuncommonlydemocraticitis.There
aretoomanyofthosewhoareinfluencingtheprocessesnow.

Nowthelistconsistsofnotjustthemajorpowers,asbefore,butalsoofnumerousmid-
rangecountriesseekingtomakeitintotheinternationalpremierleague,interstate
organizationswiththeirbureaucraticinertia,hugecorporations(withcommunications
giantsbeinginaleagueoftheirown),non-stateactors,likenon-governmental
organizations(ISIS,ineffectisoneofthem)andevensomeindividualswhopossess
intellectualpoweroverotherpeople.

Insidestatestoo,decision-makingismademorecomplicatedbythefactthatgovernments
areunabletofullycontrolwhatishappeningontheirterritory:Itisimpossibletofence
oneselfofffromthenumerousinfluencesofaglobalworld.

Clearlydefinedspheresofinterestareoutofthequestion.Thosewhousedtobelongto
theminthepastarenolongerpreparedtoacceptthistypeofrelations,whilethosewho
usedtocontrolthemdonothaveenoughleversofpowertoforceanyone.

Theoutgoingyearhasshownthatthedominanttrendisnottheuniversalityofapyramid-
likeworld,asitseemedinthe1990s,butthefragmentationoftheworldintomore
manageablesegments.Theyoperateaccordingtotheirownratherthanuniversalrules.
TheTrans-PacificPartnershipsetupinOctoberthisyearisaprototypeofthistypeofa
"bloc."AnothercomponentshouldbetheTransatlanticTradeandInvestmentPartnership,
whichU.S.PresidentBarackObamahopestoreachanagreementonbeforetheendofhis
presidentialterm.

Abalanceoftwooceans

Theyear2015hasnotonlybecomeaRubiconmarkingthestartofsomethingnew,ithas
alsoshownthatitisimpossibletobringbackthepast.TheauthorsoftheValdaiClub
annualreport,whichthisyeariscalled"WarandPeaceinthe21stCentury,"areconvinced
that"theriseinchaosandunmanageabilityininternationalrelationscannotlastforever...
mostlikely,wearewitnessingtheemergenceofanewstructureoftheworld,basedon
whatiseffectivelyabalance,albeitloose,oftwolargegroupsofstates."

"Now,aneworderwillnotberebornonthepost-warruinsofthepreviousorderbutwill
gradually'germinate'fromadialecticchaosofrivalryandinterdependence,"readsthe
report.Thisishappeningorganically,irrespectiveofthewillofthemainplayers,whoare
stillcaptivatedbythepast.

Aflexiblebalanceof"thetwooceans"withAmericainthecenterontheoneside,andthe
continentalmassofEurasiawithaclosepartnershipbetweenChinaandRussiaonthe
other,isatfirstglancesomewhatdisconcerting.Itlookstoomuchlikeyetanotherversion
oftheclassicgeopoliticsoftheMahanandMackindervarietyorlikethegrimpredictionsof
GeorgeOrwellwithhisEurasiaandOceania.

Infact,thesearetwocommunitiesthatareunitedbycommoninterestsfromwithinbutare
interdependentandnotconfrontationaltoeachother,atleastnotalways.Thisisthebest
optionthatonecanimaginetoday.Yetanotherversionofan"endofhistory"-inflected
"eternalpeace,"predictably,hasturnedouttobeautopia.

[returntoContents]

#3
http://warontherocks.com
December23,2015
TheSevenDeadlySinsofRussiaAnalysis
ByMichaelKofman
MichaelKofmanisanAnalystattheCNACorporationandaFellowattheWilsonCenter's
KennanInstitute.PreviouslyheservedasProgramManageratNationalDefenseUniversity.
Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.

Astheclockcountsdowntotheendofanothertumultuousanddifficultyearofdealingwith
Russia,thenaturalinstinctistolookbackonthebattlesandsurprisesof2015withaneye
tomakingpredictionsforthecomingyear.Thereismaterialaplenty:thebattleof
Debaltseve,Moscow'soperationsinSyria,acrisiswithTurkeythatstillburnsbright.Anew
yearoffersnewopportunitiesforprognostication:WherewillRussiastrikenext?Whatis
Putinthinking?Whatarethelikelyflashpointsof2016?Insteadofthistraditionalexercise,
Russiaexpertsshouldreflectonayearofdiscussions,briefings,roundtables,merciless
PowerPointdecksabouthybridwar,andoccasionalspatsinthevirtualpagesofoutletslike
WarontheRocks.Whatarethenaggingquestions,questionableassumptions,and
unknownsthatbesettheanalyticalandpolicymakingcommunity?

ExpertsandpolicymakerswhodealwithRussiaarelivinginahigh-tempoenvironment,
keepingpacewithmilitaryinterventions,crises,andthefrequenttwistsinbilateralrelations.
However,inanysuchendeavor,itispossibletolearnlessonsthatarenottrue.Thisismy
ownattemptatpresentingalistofquestionablebitsofanalysisandassumptionsthatexist
withinthecommunity.Indoingso,Ihopetopushpeopletocriticallyexaminehowtheylook
atRussia.Whydowesaysomeofthesethings,andmoreimportantlywhydowethink
them?

1.TheRussianGovernmentisBrittle.Orisit?

PresentingVladimirPutin'sregimeasbrittleisoftenanalyticalshorthandforarguingthathis
regimeisdangerousinthenearterm,butequallylikelytoimplodeinshortorder,with
Russiadescendingintoturmoilandinstability.Indeed,Moscowhasaccumulatedsomany
domesticandforeignpolicyproblemsthatitwouldmakethisalogicalassessmentwereit
notforthepoortrackrecordofsuchpredictions.Witheachnewoutbreakinwhathas
becomeanalmostroutineseriesofpolitical,economic,orforeignpolicycrises,asegment
oftheRussia-watchercommunityinvariablybeginstomakepredictionsofPutin'simminent
demise.Unfortunately,thescienceofpredictingregimechangeseemstolagsignificantly
behindastrology.WeshouldrememberthatfewpredictedtheSovietUnion'srapiddemise,
thestartoftheArabSpring,oranticipatedtherapidfallofVictorYanukovichinUkraine
followingthestartoftheMaidan.

Therearetwoongoingcasestudiesonthemeritofsuchpredictions.ThefirstisPakistan,
acountrythatbythesametheoryshouldhavecollapsedlongagoundertheweightofits
manyproblems.ThesecondisNorthKorea,whichsoldiersondespitedecadesof
predictionsandestimatesoftheregime'simminentimplosion.AsformerSecretaryof
DefenseRobertGatesremarkedonourabilitytopredictthenatureandlocationofthenext
conflict,"ourrecordhasbeenperfect"giventhat"we'veneveroncegottenitright."The
sameshouldbesaidofourabilitytojudgeregimebrittleness.Thepointisnotthatneo-
Kremlinologyorassessmentsofpoliticalstabilityareawasteoftime,butthatthisisa
singlelayerofanalysisthatshouldbetakenwithahealthydoseofskepticism.

UndoubtedlythosewhoregularlypredictPutin'sdownfallwillonedaybevindicated,butfor
planningandanalyticalpurposes,ourexpectationsshouldbetempered.Thenexttestof
politicalbrittlenesscomesin2018whenwewillseehowreadyandwillingtheRussian
publicistoacceptPutin'sautomaticre-election.Nobodyknowswhatthestateofthe
economy,currencyvaluation,foreignexchangereserves,oilprices,orinternationalposition
ofRussiawillbethatyear.

2.TheUnitedStateshasaPutinProblem,notaRussiaProblem.OrDoesit?

Theindividualsinpowermatter,andanotherRussianleadermaynothavechosentoannex
CrimeaorinvadeUkraineinresponsetotheMaidan'svictory.Thatbeingsaid,thelingering
debateonwhethertheUnitedStateshasaPutinproblemoraRussiaproblemisan
unsettledone.IfoneassumesthattherealproblemisPutin'sregime,howeverlongitmight
last,thenthenaturalcourseofactionistoavoidanybargainswithRussia,cauterizethe
damagetothebilateralrelationshipandwaitforanotherleader.Mypersonalviewisthat
whoeversucceedsVladimirPutinwillnotprovetobeallthatdifferent,andwilllikelyfollowa
similarpolicypath.

RussianhistorysuggeststhatPutinisanythingbutanaberrationinleadership,pursuing
securitydilemmasinthesamemannerofmanypreviousoccupantsoftheKremlin.Seeing
Russia'ssecurityspaceasazero-sumgameandsecuringitbylimitingthesovereigntyof
itsneighborsisalmostcanonforRussianforeignpolicy(asitwasforSovietpolicy).We
shouldaskifPutin'sforeignpolicyisfundamentallysodifferentfromthatofBorisYeltsin,
Russia'sfirstdemocraticleader,orifRussiawassimplytooweakduringYeltsin'sruleto
challengethepost-ColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.Inearly2014,Henry
KissingerwarnedWashingtonnottofixateonPutinwhenhewrotethat"FortheWest,the
demonizationofVladimirPutinisnotapolicy,itisanalibifortheabsenceofone."

YeltsintoobelievedintheapplicationofforcetoachievedesiredpoliticalendsinRussiaand
onitsperiphery.ExamplesarefoundamongRussianinterventionsinTransnistriaand
Tajikistanin1992andAbkhaziain1993,theuseoftankstosuppressaconstitutionalcrisis
inMoscow,theFirstChechenWarin1994-96,andtheRussianparatrooperdeploymentto
seizePristinaInternationalAirportin1999aheadofNATO'sdeploymentinKosovo.In
retrospect,thatadministrationwasnotshortonmilitarygambits,complaintsaboutNATO
expansion,orgripeswithU.S.militaryinterventions.ThecharacterofYeltsin'sgovernment
wasquitedifferentfromPutin'sregime,butarguablyitwasunderhisleadershipinthe
1990sthatRussiabeganandendeditsbriefflirtationwithdemocracy.Intruth,wehave
Yeltsin'spresidencytothankforPutin.

Putin'sviewoftheworldmayhaveevolvedduringhisrule,butthereislittleevidencethat
weshouldexpecthissuccessortotraveladifferentpath.Thusfar,thereisnothingto
suggestthatthenextRussianleader,whenfacedwithasimilarinternationalandregional
environmentwillnotattempttoengagetheWest,leavedisappointedandreverttothe
ruthlesspursuitofRussiannationalinterest.Anotherquestionseldomraisediswhether
U.S.policytowardsRussiawouldtrulychangeifitstroublesomeleaderweretodisappear
tomorrow.

3.MoscowCannotKeepThisUp.OrCanit?

CurrentdiscourseonRussia'seconomicfrailtyfoldsintothebroaderdiscussionon
whetherornotMoscowcansustainthecurrentstateofconfrontation.Inotherwords,how
longcanMoscowkeepthisup?TheunderlyingquestioniswhetherRussiawillceasebeing
aprobleminthenear-tomid-termbysuccumbingtoitseconomicwoes.Thenarrativethat
RussiawillrunoutofmoneyisprevalentintheWest,eventhoughMoscow'sforeign
reserveshavebothstabilizedandshownamodestreboundinrecentmonths.Thebigger
questioniswhydowetalkaboutRussiaasthoughitwasabankoracompany?Did
Russiagooutofbusinessafterthe1998default?

WhatistheactualconnectionbetweenWesternsecurityconsiderationsvis-a-visRussia,
itsforeignandnationalsecuritypolicy,andtheamountofmoneyithasonhand?Putin
announcedambitiousmilitaryreformsin2009,whenthepriceofoilfellto$35perbarrel.
RussiainvadedUkraineandannexedCrimeain2014eventhoughtheRussianeconomy
wasclearlyenteringarecessioninlate2013.Lookingfurtherback,Russianspersevered
throughthefinancialdefaultandcurrencycrisisof1998,manygoingthebetterpartofa
yearwithoutsalaries.PutinwasanointedasYeltsin'ssuccessorfollowingthiseconomic
carnage,andintheaftermathlaunchedtheSecondChechenWarin1999,aprolonged
conventionalandcounterinsurgencycampaign.
Thisdiscussionbegsamoreessentialquestionastowhetherornottheeconomyhasever
beenafoundationofRussianpowerintheinternationalsystem.Inapreviousarticlefor
WarontheRocks,IarguedthatRussiahasoftenappearedtobethesickmanofEurope,
technologicallybackwards,withalacklustereconomy,andapoliticalsystemthat
consistentlylagsbehindtheneedsofitssociety.Thatbeingsaid,despiteWesternfearsto
thecontrary,theSovietUnionwasneverasuperpowerbyvirtueofbeingaserious
economiccompetitortotheUnitedStates,letalonetheWest,atbestattaining57percent
ofAmerica'sGNPinthelate1960sbeforefallingbehind.

Today,plentyofseniorU.S.officialsconsiderRussiatobeastrategicthreatandaserious
opponenttoNATOeventhoughitsGDPisbarelyatenthofAmerica's.Inarecentinterview
discussingRussia,DeputyDefenseSecretaryRobertWorkappliedMearsheimer's
definitionofagreatpowertoMoscow,highlightingthereturnofgreatpowerpoliticsinthe
internationalsystem.Granted,hesaidthiswasanarrowlens,butiftheUnitedStates
considersRussiatobeagreatpower(orregionalpowerwithabignucleararsenal)when
itseconomyrepresentsamere3.3percentofglobalGDP,thentheconnectionbetween
economicfundamentalsofpowerandRussia'spositionintheinternationalsystemmerits
furtherdiscussion.

4.RussiaCannotSustainMilitaryOperations.OrCanit?

FollowingcloselythediscussionofeconomicweaknessisageneralsentimentthatRussia
isunabletosustainmilitaryoperationsduetofinancialorforceconstraints.Goingbackto
early2015,thenotionthatRussia'sarmedforcesaretieddownor"stuck"inUkraine
seemstohavedissipated.Themeritofsuchestimateswascastintodoubtwhen,in
Septemberofthisyear,RussiawassimultaneouslysustainingitsdeploymentinUkraine,
conductingtheexpensivestrategicexerciseCenter2015,anddeployinganexpeditionary
operationtoSyria.Itoowaswronginarguingthatlogisticalandfinancialconstraintswould
limitMoscow'sinvolvementinSyriagivenitslackofassetstosustainexpeditionary
operations.

Muchtomyownsurprise,RussiasurgedsealiftbyreflaggingTurkishcommercialshipsto
supportitsincreasingtrooppresenceandbaseexpansions.ForMoscow,necessityisthe
motherofinvention,whereasfortheUnitedStatesitisusuallythemotherofprocurement.
Russiaalsofoundplentyoffundingtotestexpensivelandattackcruisemissilesofalmost
everyvariety.Inarecentpressconference,Putinshowednosignsthateconomic
constraintswouldimpactmilitaryoperations.Instead,itseemsRussiacansustainthisand
allotherlinesofeffortforatleastafewyears.At4.2percentofGDP,or3.3trillionrubles,
Russia'sdefensebudgetisthehighestithasbeensincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion.

Toooftenwetradeinouranalyticalexpertiseforanaccountant'sglasses,asthoughwe
couldcounttheRussianMinistryofDefense'smoneyoritsavailabletroopsbetterthanit
can.Ontheissueofsustainmentofmilitaryoperationsweneedadoseofanalytical
humility.

5.RussiaisStillaPowerinDecline.Orisit?

IfundamentallybelievethatRussiaisapowerinstructuraldecline,butincreasinglyI
wonderabouttherelevanceofthatassessment.Itseemswitheachyearwecaninferless
andlessfromsuchastatement.CelesteWallanderandEugeneRumer,twolongtime
RussiaexpertswhomIholdinthehighestregard,oncewrote:

"Despiteseveralyearsofeconomicgrowthandanewdynamicleader,Russiaremainsa
powerindecline.Neitheritsrecenteconomicsuccessnoritsvigorousleadershipis
sufficienttomakeupforthelong-termlossesthecountryhassufferedortocompensate
forthecontemporaryshortcomingsthatbeliekeyelementsofRussianpower."

TheonlyproblemwiththisremarkablepieceinTheWashingtonQuarterlyisthatitwas
publishedinlate2003.Roughlyadecadelater,PresidentObamasimilarlyopinedthat
Russiaisa"regionalpower"actingoutof"weakness."ManyofRussia'sunderlying
weaknesseswereastruethenastheyarenow,butifRussiaisdeclining,itisdoingsovery
slowly,anditsleadershipdoesnotacceptsuchapredestinedfate.Asimprobableasitmay
be,absentasuddenRussiancollapse,atsomepointwemaybeforcedtoadmitthat
Russiaisdecliningsoslowlythecountrymightjustbemuddlingthrough.
6.DemographyWillDetermineRussia'sFate.OrWillit?

Russia'sdemographicproblemsarecommonlyreferencedasoneofthedriversofits
supposedlyassuredstructuraldecline.Analystsoftenmentiondemographytoeitherblithely
supportthenotionthatRussiawillsimplyceasetobeaproblemfortheWestinthelong
term,orworriedlyspeculatethatthecountrywillbecomedangerouslyunstable.Butwhat
mightRussia'sdemographicstrulydetermine?WillRussiasomehowbelessofastrategic
threatoraconcernfortheUnitedStatesifithasasmallerpopulation?Itisalmostcertain
thatRussiawillhaveenoughmanpowertomaintain1,550strategicnuclearweapons,
alongwithaconventionalforcetoovermatchanyofitsneighbors,saveChina.Perhaps
counterintuitively,intheshortterm,Russia'sarmedforceshavesteadilyincreasedinsize
fromroughly667,000-700,000in2012to900,000today.

Whenconsideringlong-termalternativefuturesitisworthnotingthatRussia'seconomy
andnationalbudgetisinexorablydependentonenergyandresourceextraction.Theseare
industriesthatarenotlabor-intensive.Atthesametime,Russiaisthebeneficiaryofalarge
laborinfluxfromformerSovietRepublics,oftenmakingitthethird-orsecond-highest
recipientofmigrantsintheworld.CanRussianationalizesuchlaboratthecostofinternal
socialcohesion?Howmuchwillitsgovernmentbudgettrulysufferfollowingalaborforce
contraction?Isitevenfairtoassumethatwarfareorsimilarstatetaskswillremain
manpower-intensive30yearsfromnow?AreRussia'sdemographicproblems
fundamentallydifferentfromthoseofotherdevelopedstates,includingmanyU.S.allies?It
strikesmethatRussia'sdemographicdeclineismoreofanopen-endedquestionthana
definitivestatementonthefutureofthecountry.

7.ForPutin,It'sAllAboutRegimeSurvival.Orisit?

Moscow'sannexationofCrimea,invasionofUkraine,andlaunchofoperationsinSyriaare
sometimesexplainedasthethroesofafallingpoliticalsystemengagedina"survival
project."Theunderlyingtheoryunifyingtheseactionsisregimesurvival,brilliantly
advocatedbyLiliaShevtsovainanumberofarticlesandop-eds.Theproblemwiththis
approachisthatregimesurvivalcircularlyexplainseverythingandabsolutelynothingatthe
sametime:Thereisnopoliticalregimeonearththatisnotinterestedinitssurvival.Regime
survivalisaconstantmotivationformany,ifnotall,politicalsystemsandpoliticians.Itisso
fungibleananalyticalapproachthatitlendsitselfusefultoexplaininganyandallpolicy
choicesbyPutin.

Atitscore,thisargumentarbitrarilytakesthedomesticpoliticaloutcomesofMoscow's
actions,suchashighapprovalratingsathome,oraresurgentsenseofnationalism,and
movesthembackintimetobecometheprimaryobjectivesofforeignandnationalsecurity
policy.Thatcouldbetrue,butitseemsimpossibletoproveordisprove.Regimesurvival
maynotbeanincorrectexplanationofMoscow'smotives,butitiscertainlyincompleteas
ananalysisoftherealsourcesofRussiandecision-making.

RussiaAnalysisinPerspective

InmyownnarrowlaneofRussianmilitaryanalysis,thereisalwaysroomforamore
balanced,informed,andnuancedunderstandingofRussia.Perhapsthegreatestwoeof
discussionsonRussianmilitary,strategy,anddecision-making(otherthandebateson
hybridwarfare)istheconstantseesawbetweentwoextremes.Toooften,weareengaged
inanasininedebateastowhetherRussia'smilitaryisfivefeettallor12feettall.
Assessmentstendtotrackmorecloselywithwhereonesitsinthepolicymakingornational
securityestablishment,versuswheretheRussianmilitaryactuallyis,andwhatitcando.
HereIbelievethestartingpointshouldalwaysbeBismarck'sobservationthat"Russiais
neverasstrongasshelooksnorasweakasshelooks."Whenitcomestodecision-
makinganalysis,Putinisregularlycastinstarktermsaseitherabrilliantstrategist,
outfoxingtheWestateveryturn,orcompletelyincompetentwithoutanynotionofwhathe
willdonext.

PerchancethebroadestandmostvexingquestionforU.S.decision-makersandexperts
todayisthis:HowdowedeterRussia?Itisasvagueasitisrecurrent.Theshortansweris
thattheUnitedStatesdoesdeterRussia,whichiswhywe'reallstillhere70yearsafter
nuclearweaponswerefirstused.Amoreanalyticallyinteresting-andpoliticallyvaluable-
questionwouldbehowtheUnitedStatesshouldmanagegreat-powercompetitioninthe
internationalsystemandkeepconfrontationwithRussiafromescalatingintowar.Ifcrises
areinevitableamongthemajorplayers,anditseemstheyare,thenmanagingescalation
dynamicsisparamount.Whenfacedwithaproblem,bureaucracieshaveapredilectionfor
pursuingactivityandconfusingitforachievement,toparaphraseFareedZakaria.Tobetter
structureapolicyorastrategytowardsRussiaweshouldconfrontourownunderlying
assumptionsandthemeritsofprevailingnarratives,andmorerigorouslyseektofillexisting
gapsinanalysis.

[returntoContents]

#4
TheUnzReview
www.unz.com
December23,2015
PutinBlues
ByIsraelShamir

HeavydarknessbefallstheNorththesunrarelyemergesfrombetweentheclouds.This
year,Russiahasnoticeablylessstreetillumination,andthespiritsareanythingbutfestive.
OnlythewhitenessofthesnowandChristmastreesbreakthegloomandremindusofthe
forthcominglowpointofthecosmicwheel,Yuletide,whendaysstartstowaxandnightsto
wane.AsthisstellareventforetellstheNativityofourSavior,thisisaperiodofhopeaftera
verydifficultyear,allovertheworld.

Putinsupportersareunhappy

TheRussianskeepguessingwhatPresidentPutinwilltelltheminhistraditionaltelevised
addresstothenationatthebreakoftheNewYear.Heshouldsay,thisyearisover,andwe
shallallcheer,peoplepropose.Eventhemostoptimisticonesaredisappointedby
lacklustreeconomicperformance,andtheyblamethegovernmentofPrimeMinister
Medvedevandhisliberalmonetaristteam.MeanwhilePutinrisesabovetheblamegame,
butthegovernmentislessandlesspopular.

-AstheRoubledrops,eventheratherpro-Kremlinmass-circulationnewspaperKP(full
disclosure:IwriteanoccasionalcolumnfortheKP)publishedacallfortheeconomyand
financeministerstoresignortobefired.ThereisaverylittlechancethatMrPutinwilltake
thisadviceandcleanhisgovernmentstables.

-Hecouldbeefuphiscreditbydumpingsome(orall)ofhisministers,butPutinisstubborn
andunusuallyloyaltohiscolleagues.Noaccusationhaseverconvincedhimtodismissa
manofhisteam.HisformerdefenceministerMrSerdyukovhasallegedlybeeninvolvedin
someshadydealing,whileSerdyukov'sparamourandassistantamassedmillionsby
sellingprimeMODassetstohercronies.Still,Putindidnotdumphim,andsavedhimfrom
jail.(HehadtoresigntobecomeaCEO,whilesheservedafewweeksinprison,atmost).

-Lastweek,theoppositionleaderMrNavalnyairedsomeheavychargesagainstAttorney
GeneralChayka.Forhisdefence,Chaykasaidthatthemanbehindthecampaignisthe
notoriousMrBrowder.BrowderisanAmericancrookwhomanagedtoappropriatemany
high-qualityRussianassetsforpenniesduringYeltsin'sprivatisation.Eventuallyhewas
forcedtopartwithhislootandhehasbeensentencedtomanyyearsofjailinabsentia.
Browderisslime,nodoubt,butitisaweakdefenceforChayka.Still,Putinrefusedtodrop
Chaykaoreventoinitiateanindependentinvestigationofhisallegedcrimes.

-PutinstandsbythemosthatedpoliticianofYeltsin'sera,MrAnatolyChubays.The
FinancialTimescalledhimFathertotheOligarchs.Afterleavingthegovernment,Chubays
hasbeenappointedtoleadtheRUSNANO,astate-ownedcorporationnotoriousforits
embezzlementandwaste.Putinsavedhimmanytimesoverfromprosecution.

-Putinwent,hatinhand,toYekaterinburgforthegrandopeningofBorisYeltsin'sMemorial
Centre(pricetag-ninebillionroubles)andreferredkindlytotheloathedlatePresidentwho
appointedhimhissuccessor.Peoplewerefuriousseeingtheirpresidentenjoyinghimself
amongthecarpetbaggersofYeltsin'sregime.

-CanyouimagineFoxTVtransmittingRussianpropaganda?InRussia,amajorchunkof
Russianmedia,state-ownedorsubsidisedbythetaxpayer,transmitspro-Westernand
anti-Russianagenda,allegedtheeminentfilmdirectorNikitaMichalkov,astaunch
supporterofPutin,inhisvideoseenbyovertwomillionviewersinafewdays.Hecalled
uponPutintoasserthislineandbanishtheenemieswithin,butstateTVrefusedto
broadcastthevideo.

-Putin'srecentpress-conferenceprovidedachanceformorecriticism.Besidethepoints
mentionedabove,thejournalistsaskedwhystateenterpriseCEOsarepaidmillionsof
dollarsayear,whileeverybodyelseiscalledupontotightenthebelt.Theyaskedwhythe
RussianCentralBankkeepsbuyingUSbondsandsupportstheUSDollarattheexpense
oftheRouble.Theyaskedwhyimportsubstitutiondoesnotworketc.

Theseareprotestsfromthepro-Putincrowd,frompeoplewhosupportedhistakeoverof
CrimeaandhisentryintoSyrianwar.Theycouldbearsomedeprivation,buttheyareupset
byPutin'scondoningthieves,byhisapparentcronyism,byhisoligarchfriends.Untilnow,
thecriticsavoidedattackingPutin,butthesearetheearlyswallows.DrStepanSulakshin,
theheadofaMoscowthinktank,publiclyaccusedPutinofknowinglyleadingRussiainto
furtherdegradation.

ThisbubblingdissatisfactionofPutin'ssupportersmayyetturnmoredangerousforthe
presidentthanthe2011Frondeofhishipsterenemies.Meanwhile,head-strongMrPutin
doesnotwishtoyieldground,sacrificesomeofmorehatedministersandCEOs,orattune
internalpoliciestopublicexpectations.Perhapsheisright,andthingsarenotwhatthey
appear,butjusticemustbeseen,notonlydone.

TalkingTurkeywithIsrael

TheTurkishfrictioncausedbyErdogan'sdecisiontoshootdowntheRussianbomberis
anothersourceofPutin'sblues.HehadspentalotofeffortnurturingrelationswithTurkey.
Allthiseffortwentdownthedrain.Therearemultimillionprojects,fromagaspipelineto
tourism.Allthatwascutdownatonce.Putin'splanstodelivergastoEuropebypassingthe
hostileUkrainecollapsed.ThisisahugesetbackfortheRussianpresident.

Therhetoricbetweentheleadersbecameacrimonious.HotheadsinRussiaspeakof
seizingtheBosporusandDardanelles,ofturningIstanbulintoConstantinopleandplanting
thecrossontheancientStSophiachurch.TheTurkishpresidentthreatenedtooccupy
Russiawithinoneweek-withhelpofNATO.

Turkey'schoiceisaresultofitsover-involvementinSyria.Withsomuchinvestment,
ErdoganwasloathtoseeSyriagone.WhilehisdecisiontodowntheRussianjetwas
ratherextreme,therelationsalreadyweretense.

Putin'striptoErevanandhiscondemnationof"TurkishgenocideoftheArmeniansin1915"
wasanunnecessaryprovocation.Nootherworldleaderdidit,butFrancoisHollandeof
FrancewhoflewinfortwohoursandproceededtoBaku,thecapitalofAzeriTurksthus
levellingtheplayingfield.IactuallycalleduponPutintoavoidthisstep,butthestrong
Armenianlobbyinsistedonthistrip.

Afterwards,therewasasupposedleak(inreality:afake)ofaharshandinsulting
conversationbetweenPutinandtheTurkishambassador.IcheckedwiththeAmbassador
andothersides.Itwasafake,butthisfakehasbeenspreadinmillionsofsitesandposts.

However,the$64,000questionisaboutSyria:willitbecomeavassalstatetothe
reconstitutedOttomansorwillitremainasovereignstatewithstrongtiestoRussia.
RussiathoughtithasastrongerhandasaninviteeoftheSyrianlegitimategovernment
TurkeydeniedBashar'slegitimacy.

TheriftbetweenTurkeyandRussiabecameafact.ItsmainbeneficiariesweretheUS-
andIsrael.Forthelastfiveyears,therelationsbetweenIsraelandTurkeywerehostile,
sinceIsraelicommandosmassacredninepeaceactivistsonboardtheTurkishvesselNavi
Marmara.InfaceoftheRussianthreat,theTurksagreedtomakepeacewithIsrael.

Israelisinvolvedintheconflictmorethanitadmits.TheRussianshaspublishedtheir
evidenceofDaeshoilbeingsmuggledtoTurkeybyTurkishcompanies.Thiscausedalotof
indignationinRussiaandelsewhere.Howdotheydaretobuystolenoilandfinancethe
terrorists!

TheRussiansforgottomentionthatthesmuggledoilgoestoIsrael.Israelisthemain
buyerofoilproducedbytheKurdsandbyDaesh.Thiswasreportedandcorroboratedby
theFTandbyAlArabyalJadeed.TheRussianmediaavoidedthetopic,asPutincherishes
hisgoodrelationswithNetanyahu.

Lastweek,IsraelisattackedsuburbsofDamascusandkilledsomeRussianallies,
Hezbollahfighters.Again,Russianstookitquietly.Noneofindignationcausedbydowning
ofthebomberseepedintotheRussianmedia.

Israelsupportsal-Nusra,declaredaterroristorganisationbytheUN.Thisisnotasecret:
recentlytheDailyMailpublishedareportglorifyingIsraelisoldierssavinglivesofthe
Islamistfighters.ThousandsofwoundedguerrillasreceivedmedicalassistanceinIsraeli
hospitalsandwentbacktofightBashar.

IsraelhasagoodworkingrelationswithDaesh,too.IwastoldthatDaeshtroopsentered
thePalestiniancampalYarmukbeingequippedwithlonglistsofPalestinianactivists.They
wereassembledandpubliclyexecuted.ThePalestiniansthinkthatDaeshreceivedthe
namesfromIsraelisecretserviceandactedupontheirrequest.Moreover,Daeshnever
everattackedaZionisttarget.

Putin-andRussianmediadidnotsayawordonthat.PerhapsPutinisrightRussiadoes
notneedsuchastrongenemyasIsrael,sinceIsraelileaderscansay"Jump,UncleSam,"
andUncleSamwillask"Howhigh?"However,theycouldtonedowntheirindignation
regardingTurkishoilsmuggling,TurkishhelptotheguerrillasandotherTurkishmisdeeds.

Israelisobjectivelyanenemy:itisanenemyofRussia'salliesHezbollahandIranitwants
dismembermentofSyriainordertokeepGolanHeightsforgooditprefersaSomalised
Syriatoahealthyandstrongone.ButNetanyahuplayshishandcautiouslydespitehis
feelingofinvulnerability.

TheIsraeliattackontheDamascussuburbstookplacedespitetheRussianC-400
operatinginSyria.ExpertssaytheC-400hasbeenplacedinLatakiaanditcan'teffectively
protecttheskiesabovetheSyriancapital,whiletheC-300purchasedbytheSyriansand
locatedinDamascushasbeenhitbyIsraelis.Meanwhile,theIsraeliAirForceistrainingat
avoidingandcopingwithaC-300inCyprus,asthatcountryhasaC-300ofitsown,
recentlyboughtfromtheRussians.

PutinhasnothingtogainfromconfrontationwithIsraelIsraelpreferstohaveitsway
withoutfightingtheRussians.Perhaps,soonerorlater,theIsraeliandRussianAirForces
willjoustbutmeanwhilebothsidesprefertopostponethatmoment.

PutinhopesErdoganwillgiveuponSyria.Thisisnotaneasytask,butnotanimpossible
one,either.Forthat,PutinmustworkwithPresidentObama-orwiththenextAmerican
President.

PutinvsWesternLeaders

ItisoftensaidthatPresidentObamaisaweakleader.Idonotthinkso.Heisawilyand
sophisticatedplayer.HevoidseveryagreementhiscountrymadewithRussia.Therewere,
andareagreementsgalore:fromMinsktotherecentUNSCresolutions.Atfirst(and
second)sight,theagreementsfollowtheRussianline.Otherwise,theRussianswouldnot
signthem.However,afterawhileObamaoffersadifferentinterpretation.Iwouldnotliketo
argueagainsthiminacourtoflaw.Heisastrickyasanylawyer.

Didhegiveuponthe"Assadmustgo"mantra?Itisnotclear.He,andhisSecretaryof
StateJohnKerrysometimessaythathemaystay,butquicklycontradictthemselvesand
insistonhisdeparture.Theyintroducenewandpeculiarideasdaily.Forexample,theysay
"OnlySunnismaydealwiththeSyriancrisis".ThisstrangeideainspiredtheSaudisand
theyevenclaimedtheyorganisedahugecoalitionofSunnistatestofightDaesh.Needless
tosay,withinafewdaysthis"coalition"vanishedlikedewundersunrays.

However,atthebottomline,ObamaplaysbyaColdWarscriptagainstRussia.Likea
drunkardaccusesothersofheavydrinking,heaccusedMittRomneyof"ColdWar
thinking",andwarnedPutinofhis"ColdWarthinking",butasadiscipleofZbigniew
Brzezinskihehardlycanthinkofanythingelse.EvenPentagongeneralscomplainedabout
thismatrixofhismind,saysSeymourHersh.

ThereisnothingPutinwantslessthananewroundoftheColdWar.HeisnotanewSoviet
leader.PeoplewhodreamofanewStalinarebarkingupawrongtree.Onemayregretit,
andmanyRussiansdoregretit,butPutinhasnogreatplansofsocialrearrangement.His
ambitionismoremodest:hewantsRussiatobeindependent,prosperous,great,and
equaltoothergreatnationslikeitwasin19thcentury.

LastweekIwasattheStPetersburgCulturalForum,agatheringofartists,curators,and
artministersfrom40countries,anditwasclearthatPutin'sRussiaismuchmore
interestedinitspre-revolutionarypastandinthe19thcenturyingeneral,thanin20thor
21stcenturyart.TheyperformedalostplaybyPuccini,theyreconstructedPetipaballets,
theyreadTolstoy.Theyrebuiltpalaces,theyfixedoldtheatres,eventhepre-revolutionary
circushadbeenreturnedtoitsoldgloryinclusiveofitsoldwell-forgottennameandthe
royalcircle.SomanyrestaurantsbearnamesremindingeveryoneoftheTsartimes.

ThereisawindofnostalgiainRussia,anditisforRussiaofLeoTolstoyandTchaikovsky.
PutinhasorderedthattheremainsoftheWhitegenerals,philosophers,artistsbebrought
backforburialontheRussiansoil.SovietandCommunistmemoriesaresuppressed.
Recently,PrimeMinisterMedvedevcalledforanotherboutofcommemorationsforStalin's
victims.Iamnotsurethatthisisawisepolicyperhapsitwouldbebettertoletpasttotake
careofitself.Buthereweare:Putinandhiscrowdareold-styleliberals,notsocial
reformers.Theydonotwanttoraisethebannerofrevolt.Theywanttofitintotheworldasit
is,butasequals.

Theproblemis,therearepeoplewhoarehell-bentonhegemonyandfull-spectrum
dominance,andtheyarenotlikelytoallowRussiatogoitsownway.Theywanttoimpose
theirrules,andsetinplacetheirdocilerulers.That'swhytheverymodestintentionsof
PutinmeetsomuchresistanceinNATOandthePentagon,intheWhiteHouseandin
Westminster.What'sworse,thesepeoplealreadycontrolthemainstreampoliticsofmany
countries,fromtheUStoJapan,toFranceandSweden.Itdoesnotmatterwhichofthe
mainstreampoliticianswinelections,theresultisthesame.

Putin's(andRussia's)hopelaysinpoliticiansoutsidethecontrolledmainstream.Donald
Trumpisagoodexample.PutinisnotparticularlyinterestedinUSinternalpoliticsandinMr
Trump'sunusualproposals.ThisisaninternalmatteroftheUS,andPutinsteersclearofit,
likehewantstheUStosteerclearofRussia'sinternalmatters.Forhim,whatisimportant,
isthatTrump'sAmericawouldnottrytodominatetheworldandimposeitsagenda.The
moralquestionwhetherTrump'sideasaboutMuslimsorLatinosareloftyorbaseisa
questionfortheAmericanpeopletodecide.Putinandmanyotherforeignleaderswant
America'snon-interferenceintheirinternalaffairs.

TherudeMr.Trumpseemstobethecandidateleastlikelytopushthebuttonfornuclear
suicideofmankind.MuchlesslikelythanniceMrsClintonwhocouldnukeRussiabecause
Russiansdonotcelebrategaymarriages.Remember,hernicehusbandbombedBelgrade
becausethenastySerbsdidnotallowforthesecessionofCroats(orwasitAlbanians?)

Trump-oranystraightforwarddecentpoliticianwhodoesnottakeordersfromtheMasters
ofDiscourse-wouldbeabletoplayballwithMrPutin,byclassicalrulesofinternational
law.TrumpandPutincouldreturntheconceptofsovereigntytoitsprivilegedposition.This
wouldendmanywars.ThewarinSyriabeganwhenMrObamaandMrHollandesaid
"Assadmustgo".Bytheclassicalrules,nostatemayinterfereintheaffairsofanother
sovereignstate.FromtheRussianpointofview,thewarinSyriaisfirstofallawarfor
sovereigntyandagainstglobalImperialvassaldom.

TheRussianswanttolighttheirChristmastreesandwishMerryChristmasandgowith
theirwomenandchildrentoaChristianchurchwithoutbeingscoldedbytheObamasand
ClintonsofthisworldforinsufficientpoliticalcorrectnessandfailuretomentionKwanzaa.

That'swhyitisimportantforallofusifwemayhopetoreachpeace,thisChristmasorthe
nextone.

[returntoContents]

#5
Kremlin.ru
December22,2015
FirstRussianInternetEconomyForum

VladimirPutinattendedtheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForum.
TheFirstRussianInternetEconomyForumistakingplaceinMoscowonDecember21-22.
Theplenarysession,attendedbyrepresentativesofthenationalITindustryandrelevant
ministriesandagencies,isdedicatedtoinitiativesforthelong-termdevelopment
programmeoftheRussianInternetsegmentandbranchesoftheeconomyusinginternet
technologies.

Priortotheplenarysession,thePresidentattendedanexhibitionofinnovativeprojects,
wherewasshown,inparticular,developmentsinbanktechnologies,cyber-protectionfor
industrialfacilitiesandthosedirectedatenhancingtheaccessibilityofpublicservicesfor
thepublic.

VladimirPutinalsohadaconversationwithForumparticipants.

PresidentofRussiaVladimirPutin:Goodafternoon,friends.

Togetherwithyourboard,wehavejusthadadetaileddiscussionoftheissuesyou
consideredyesterdayregardingspecificbranchesoftheeconomy.Ifounditinteresting.I
hopewehavemanagedtoagreeoncertainmatters.IcanseemyaideIgorShchegolev
here,theformerMinisterandnowmyPresidentialAide.Weagreedthatifourcolleagues
decidetodoso,thenwewillbehappytohandovertheresponsibilityforeverythingyou
agreedonandproposedasnecessaryforjointeffortstopromoteyourinitiativestooneof
yourcolleagues,whomIinvitedtoworkatthePresidentialExecutiveOfficewithMr
Shchegolev.ThiswillallowustopromoteyourideaswithinthePresidentialExecutive
Officeaswell,andalsowithintheexecutivebodiesintheGovernmentandtheregionsof
theRussianFederation,whichisnolessimportant.

Generally,inthepastyearstheInternethascertainlybecomepartofourdailylives.
Moreover,ithasbecomeaseparateindustrypracticallyallovertheworld,andyouspoke
aboutthisyesterday.Russiaiskeepingabreastofthings,ofcourse.Imaybesayingvery
generalthingsnotintendedforthisaudience,maybeforthosewhoarestandingtherewith
thecameras,sothatpeopleinthiscountrywillfindoutmoreaboutthis:Russiahasthe
largestnumberofInternetusers-inexcessof80millionpeople,with62millionofthem
goingonlineonadailybasis.Asoneoftheboardmemberssaid,peoplelookattheir
phonesabout300timesadaytoseewhatisgoingonintheworld,orineverydaylife,
thingsthatinterestpeoplewhousetheInternet.

ThenumberofcommercialInternetusersisalsogrowingrapidly.TheInternetmarket
accountsfor16percentoftheGDP.Remoteaccesstechnologiesareextensivelyusedto
providepublicandmunicipalservices,whichIamveryhappytosay,becausejustrecently
wewereonlybeginninghere.Generally,therehasbeengoodprogress.Intheprevious
year,morethanathirdofallpublicandmunicipalservicesbecameavailableonline.

ThesignificanceandinfluenceoftheInternetareconstantlygrowing.Weneedtousethe
Internetasadriverofmodernisationfortheentirecountry(thisisanundisputedfactand
nobodyhasanydoubtaboutit,andwearereadytohelpandsupportyouinyour
endeavours)toraisethequalityoflife,tocreateanewtechnologicalbasisforthenational
economyand,ofcourse,forthesocialspheres-educationandhealthcare.

TheInternetInitiativesDevelopmentFundhasbecomeoneoftheinstrumentsavailablefor
resolvingthesetasks.Wesetituptwoyearsagoanditseemstobedoingwell.Italready
has6billionrublesatitsdisposal.Overthe2.5yearsofitswork,theFundhasaddedover
170projectstoitsportfoliodesignedtoresolvespecificissuesfacingbothindividualsand
businesses.

Wedefinitelyneedtodevelopastrategyforthelong-termdevelopmentoftheRussian
Internet,takingintoconsiderationtheoveralldevelopmenttendenciesoftheworldwide
web.Ifullyagreewithyouthat,bearinginmindtheoveralltendenciesandwithgreat
respectforourpartnersandcompetition,wemustcreatecommonlivingandworking
conditionsforallonthismarket.Nobody,primarilyournationalparticipants,shouldbeputin
asituationthatwouldmakeyoulesscompetitive.Ifullyagreewiththosewhoreferredtothe
decisionswearemakingintherealeconomy,inindustryandagriculture,saying:wedo
offercertainbenefitstoRussianmarketplayers,tonationalproducers,sowhynotdothe
samehere.Iagree:wearereadytoconsiderthisanddosomething,provided,ofcourse,
thatitdoesnotviolateourWTOcommitments.Iamcertainwecanfindappropriate
solutions.
Iwouldliketowishyousuccess.Thankyouverymuch.

[returntoContents]

#6
www.rt.com
December22,2015
'14yearsofoccupationbyworld'srichestnation,Afghanistanremainsdesperate'

Outsideforcescannotdictatewhatacountry'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,but
that'swhat'shappeninginAfghanistan,saysMedeaBenjamin,cofounderofleft-wingNGO
CodePinktoldRT.

TwoattackstookplaceinAfghanistanonMonday.Threerocketshitthediplomaticareain
Kabulsomewayfromthecenterofthecity.Thathappenedafteramotorbikesuicide
bombercarriedoutanattackontheBagramairbasekillingsixUStroops.

Meanwhile,theTalibanisaggressivelypushingbackintoHelmandprovince.Themilitants
aresaidtobeclosetooverrunningthekeycityofSangin.

USSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhasdescribeddevelopmentsinAfghanistanaspositive.
However,AmericanpoliticalactivistMedeaBenjamindoesn'tagreecallingitaridiculous
statement.

"TheUShasspentprobablyatrilliondollarsinAfghanistananditremainsoneofthe
poorestcountriesintheworldoneoftheworstplacesforwomentohavechildrenoneof
theworstratesofilliteracyamongwomen,"shetoldRT.

TheUSinvadedAfghanistanin2001afterthe9/11attackscarriedoutonUSsoil,and
accordingtoBenjamin,"itiscertainlynotacountrythatafter14yearsofbeingoccupiedby
therichestcountryintheworldhasmuchtospeakforitintermsofdevelopment."

IslamicState(IS,formerlyISIS/ISIL)isnowfightingtheTalibanwhichcouldmakethings
evenworsefortheAfghanpeople.

ActivistarguesthatitisterriblethatafteralloftheseyearsandthebillionsofdollarstheUS
hasputintotraininglocalAfghanforcestheyarestillnotabletocontroltheirowncountry.

"Ithinkitisareflectionofthefactthatoutsideforcescomingincannotdictatewhata
country'sgoverningsystemisgoingtolooklike,"saidBenjamin.

Shesuggeststherehasalwaysbeenaneedforapoliticalsolutiontotheproblemsin
AfghanistanandtheUSshouldputitsmoneyintodevelopingthecountryinsteadofthe
military.

Speculatingonpossiblesolutions,theactivistsaidtherehavebeenconstantattemptsat
talkwiththeTaliban.However,shebelievesthattheyneedtogetseriousaboutthat.

"JohnKerryshouldputsomeofhisdiplomaticenergiesintofindingapoliticalsolutionthatis
goingtounfortunatelyhavetoincludetheTalibanaspartofatransition.TheTalibanare
localpeopleandtheycan'tbewishedaway,"BenjamintoldRT.

"ButIthinktheremaining10,000UStroopsarenotgoingtobeenoughtodictatetothe
Afghangovernmentwhatitspolicyshouldbe,"shecontinued.

Benjaminsaidthatithastobeapoliticalsolutionandallenergyandresourcesshouldbe
putintothatgoal.

'ObamaadministrationwantstopushSEALabusesinAfghanistanundertherug'

Meanwhile,aNewYorkTimesreporthasaccusedtheUSNavyofcoveringuptheabuseof
AfghandetaineeswhichtookplaceinMay2012.
TheNavalCriminalInvestigativeServicelaunchedaninvestigationintoacasewhere
tortureresultedinthedeathofamandetainedbyUSNavySEALS.Despiteeyewitness
accountsagainsttheUSservicemen,thenavyprobedismissedthecharges,claimingthe
evidencedidn'tsupporttheallegedmisconduct.

CriminaldefenseattorneyandformerCIAofficerJackRicespeakingaboutdetaineeabuse
saidthatinacaselikethisthereshouldnothavebeenaminimalinvestigation.

"Thisshouldhavebeenafull-blowncriminalinvestigation,whichisfarmoreseriousonthe
militaryside,"hetoldRT.

Headdedthatiftheywantedtotakethistotheextreme,theycouldhavebeenchargedin
FederalCourt,whichisaciviliancourtintheUS.

"Baseduponthefactthattherewasadeathinthiscaseitshouldhavenotbeen
investigatedasitwas,"Ricesaid.

Ricearguesthattheinvestigationcouldbereopened"basedupontheseriousnessofthe
caseandthefactthatessentiallyitwasdismissed."

"Itisdisturbingthattheyseemtomakeadecisiontotreatthisasinconsequentiallyasthey
havereallybaseduponthedeathofoneofthedetainees,"hecontinued.

TheSEAL'scommandersaidtheevidenceprovidedinthereportwasinconsistent.

Ricesaiditwaspossiblethereareinconsistenciesinthereport."Butthatinitselfitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldn'tgoforwardwithaninvestigation,"headded.

AccordingtoRice,heregularlyencountersreportsthathaveinconsistencieswithinthem.

"Thatdoesn'tstoptheinvestigation,thatdoesn'tstoptheprosecutionjustbecausesome
thingsdon'tcompletelyaddupdoesnotmeanyoushouldnotcontinuetodigitdoesn't
meanthatyoushouldnotpotentiallyevenchargesomebodywithseriouscriminal
offenses,"headded.

TheformerCIAofficerconsiderstheUSgovernmentistryingtoburytheinvestigationitself.

"Thefactthatwhattheydidwasdivertthistoaminimalinvestigationandtothekindof
investigationandprocessforinconsequentialevents,ratherthansomethingfarmore
seriousreallytellsmethattheyaresortoftryingtopushitaway,totrytoputitunderthe
rug."

In2009PresidentObamasaidhedidn'tthink2000picturesoftortureshouldbereleased
becausethiswouldendangerUStroopsabroad.RicearguesthatPresidentObama
decidedhewasnotgoingtoreleasetheAbuGhraibphotos.

"Whenhewasrunningforofficehepromisedhewantedtransparencyandhewantedthe
Americanpeopleandtheworldtoseethephotosthemselves,"hetoldRT.

Inconclusionhesaidthat"thelikelihoodofsuccessinreopeningthisisnotverycertainat
thispoint."

"Myexpectationisitwillnotbereopened,"Ricepredicted.

[returntoContents]

#7
TheNationalInterest
December23,2015
America'sColdWarMasterPlantoNukeRussia
Nowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,andwhy.
ByMichaelPeck
MichaelPeck,afrequentcontributortotheNationalInterest,isadefenseandhistorical
writerbasedinOregon.HisworkhasappearedinForeignPolicy,WarIsBoringandmany
otherfinepublications.
IftheColdWarhadturnedthermonuclear,weknowthattheUnitedStatesandSovietUnion
wouldhavebeendevastated.

Butnowforthefirsttime,weknowwhichRussiancitieswouldhavebeendestroyed,and
why.TheU.S.governmenthasfinallydeclassifiedthe1950sStrategicAirCommandtarget
list,whichwouldhavedispatchedAmericanbombersandmissilesonnuclearstrikes
acrosstheCommunistworld.

"SAClistedover1200citiesintheSovietbloc,fromEastGermanytoChina,alsowith
prioritiesestablished,"accordingtotheNationalSecurityArchive,thenon-governmental
organizationwhichrequestedthedeclassifiedinformation."MoscowandLeningradwere
priorityoneandtworespectively.Moscowincluded179DesignatedGroundZeros(DGZs)
whileLeningradhad145,including'population'targets."
[http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-
First-Ever/]

Butatleastintheory,thiswouldnothavebeenwantondestructionorterrorbombing.There
wassupposedtobemethodbehindthenuclearmadness.SAC'sprioritywastodestroy
SovietairpowerbeforeSovietbombers-thiswasbeforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe
1960s-couldstrikeAmericanandWesternEuropeantargets.Some1,100airfieldswere
targetedandprioritized,withtheSovietTu-16BadgerbomberbasesinBykhovandOrsha
inByelorussiaatthetopofthelist.OnceSovietairwarcapabilityhadbeendestroyed,and
assumingbothsideswereinanystatetocontinuethewar,thenSovietindustrywouldhave
beenbombednext.

Andsowouldalotofinnocents.TheSACtargetlist,compiledin1956andpublishedas
partofa1959nuclearweaponsplanningstudy,deliberatelyincludedcivilianpopulations.

TheSACplanspecified"the'systematicdestruction'ofSovietblocurban-industrialtargets
thatspecificallyandexplicitlytargeted'population'inallcities,includingBeijing,Moscow,
Leningrad,EastBerlin,andWarsaw,"notedNationalSecurityArchiveresearchers.
"Purposefullytargetingcivilianpopulationsassuchdirectlyconflictedwiththeinternational
normsoftheday,whichprohibitedattacksonpeopleperse(asopposedtomilitary
installationswithciviliansnearby)."

Mostofthe800pagesofdocumentsconsistoflistsoftargetsandtheirassociated
alphanumerictargetnumbers.SACplannersassumedin1959theycouldstrikewith2,130
B-52andB-47bombers,RB-47reconnaissanceaircraft,andF-101fighterescorts.In
addition,therewouldbe376nuclear-tippedcruiseandbomber-launchedmissiles,aswell
asearlyintermediate-rangemissiles.The1959studyalsostatesthatmissiles-thiswas
beforeICBMsweredevelopedinthe1960s-hadsuchalowchanceofdestroyingtheir
targetsthatmannedbomberswouldbetheprimaryweapons.

BecauseSACwassofixedonquicklyknockingoutSovietairpower,H-bombswouldhave
beendroppedtoexplodeonthegroundratherthaninmid-air.Whileairburstswouldhave
producedmoreheatandradiation,thefocusonwasachievingmaximumblastdamageto
destroySovietaircraftandbases,despitesomeunintendedsideeffects."Whilethe
objectionstosurfaceburstandtheprobabilityofradioactivefalloutaffectingfriendlyforces
andpeoplehavebeenconsidered,therequirementtowintheAirPowerBattleis
paramounttoallotherconsiderations,"saidtheSACstudy.

However,SACdefinedtheSovietairpowerinfrastructurequitebroadly,toincludeany
commandandindustrialcentersthatcouldsupportaRussianaircampaign.ThusMoscow
waslistedashavingnumerousmilitarycommandcenters,aircraftandmissilefactories,
atomicweaponslaboratoriesandoilrefineries.

DespitebeingaNuclearAgeforce,SAC'sstrategymoreresembledtheU.S.bomber
offensiveagainstGermanyandJapaninWorldWarIIthantwenty-firstcenturywarfare.
ConcentratingontheSovietairforceanditsinfrastructurewouldhavebeenfamiliargoals
toB-17andB-29commanders(whichwereindeedthepeoplewhoranSACinthe1950s,
includingCurtisLemay).Thoughitalsoseemsaquaintlylong-warstrategy,asifthe
Sovietswerereallygoingtocapableofmass-producingbombersandnuclearweapons
aftertheinitialnuclearexchange.Thebeliefthatmissilesweretoounreliable,andonly
mannedbomberscouldbetrusted,soundsmuchlikethedronevs.mannedaircraftdebate
today.
DidSAC'stargetingstrategymakesense?Thebetterquestionis,whocares?Fortunately
forthehumanrace,weneverhadachancetofindout.

[returntoContents]

#8
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines/RossiyskayaGazeta
www.rbth.ru
December23,2015
Fromliteraryjamtolivereadings:RecappingtheYearofLiterature
TheYearofLiteratureofferedmuchtoenjoyforwriters,bloggersandsweetloversalike.
RBTHhascollectedallthemostinterestingfactsandfiguresfromthisliterary
extravaganza.
ANASTASIASKORONDAEVA,ROSSIYSKAYAGAZETA

TheceremonyofpassingthebatonfromtheYearofLiteraturetotheYearofCinemawas
heldinSt.PetersburgonDec.14.Alltheattentiononliteraturethisyearhasthrownup
someinterestingstatistics.

1)Thewinnerofanarratingcompetitionheldduringthefestivalbookmarkettookhome55
poundsoffruitandvegetables.Duringthefirstweekendoffall,shelvesfilledwithbooks
wereinterspersedwiththeusualonesholdingproduceatMoscow'sDanilovskyfoodcourt
andmarket.Surprisedshopperswereabletotakehomegoodliteraturealongwiththeir
normalpurchases.

2)Continuingtheculinarytheme,120litersof"literaryjam"wascookedaroundRussia.
ThestaffofRossiyskayaGazetafoundoldrecipesandmadejamoutdoorsinwriters'
estatesfortheentiresummer.TheymadetheplumdessertfromAnnaKareninain
Tolstoy'sYasnayaPolyanaestateinTulaRegionandusedlocalapplesfromSergei
Yesenin'snativevillageofKonstantinovoinRyazanRegiontomakeajamcelebratinghis
birthday.Readmore>>>

3)InDecember,1300peopletook60hourstoreadLeoTolstoy'sWarandPeaceinalive
broadcast.ThreemonthsbeforeNatashaRostovaandAndreiBolkonskytookthestage,
anotherlivereadingproject,ChekhovAlivebyGoogle,sawthegreatplaywright's
charactersbroadcastovertheinternetfor24hoursstraight.

4)FromJune25-28,RedSquarehosteditsfirsteverbookfair,atwhichmorethan500,000
booksfrom300publishinghousesacross50regionsofRussiawerepresented.FromSt.
Basil'sCathedraltotheStateHistoricalMuseumthesquarehosteddiscussions,alibrary,a
writer'sofficeandevenachildren'splayground.Morethan200,000peopleattendedthe
writers'seminars,concertsandtheatricalperformancesthatformedpartoftheyear's
biggestliteraryevent.Readmore>>>

5)Literaturealsocaughtthepublicimaginationawayfromthebig-namefestivals,markets
andawards.SergeiNifashev,astreetcleanerandbloggerfromBlagoveshchensk,
collectedmorethan100rareeditionsinhisbasement,findingallofthemamongthecity's
trash!Whenhewentthroughthebookshefoundoldmoneyandphotos.Ararefindindeed,
andnotonewerecommendtryingtorepeat-therecouldbeallkindsofnastybugslurking
amongthetrash.

AnabridgedversionofthearticlefirstpublishedinRussianbyRossiyskayaGazeta:
http://www.rg.ru/2015/12/14/goda.html

[returntoContents]

#9
Reuters
December23,2015
Ukrainehealthsystemindangerofcollapseasreformsstall
STAIKY,UKRAINE|BYALESSANDRAPRENTICE

PaintisflakingonthedampwallsandcrackedceilingsofthesmallhospitalintheUkrainian
villageofStaikyandmuchoftheequipmentisover30yearsold.
Runninghotwaterisnotguaranteedandthehospital,servingabout2,800peopleinStaiky
andothervillages,hasnotbeenrefurbishedsinceSoviettimes.

Thereisalsolittlehopeofachangeforthebetteramongmedicalstaffwhorelyon
charitabledonations,oftenfromlocalbusinessmen,tobuyevenbasicmedicinesandthe
petrolneededtovisitpatientsinremoteareas.

AreformdrivelaunchedbytheWestern-leaninggovernmentinstalledafterapro-Moscow
president,ViktorYanukovich,wasoverthrowninapopularuprisinglastyearhasbecome
miredinbureaucraticinertia,argumentsandallegationsofcorruption.

"Idon'tknowwhoiswritingandcarryingoutreformsatthetoporiftheyhaveeverbeentoa
villageandseenhowpeopleliveandwithwhatmedicalservices,"saidfamilydoctorNadiya
MartynenkoinStaiky,aclusterofdilapidatedone-storyhousesontheRiverDnieper,an
hour'sdrivefromthecapitalKiev.

Shesaidstatefundscoveronlytheelectricityandmeagerstaffsalaries,andthatoverthe
pastdecade"they'vecuteverythingtheycouldandevenwhattheyshouldn't...it'svery
precarious."

Staikyisfarfromunique.Soviet-erahospitalsacrossthecountryof42millionare
crumbling,underpaymentofmedicalstaffcontinuestofosterasystemofbribe-takingand
Ukraine'spoorvaccinationratehasplaceditonablacklistalongsidesomeoftheworld's
poorestcountries,includingSouthSudan.

CorruptionhasplaguedUkrainesincethecountrygainedindependencefromtheSoviet
Unionin1991.ButunderYanukovich,itbecamemuchworse.

HealthMinisterAlexanderKvitashvili,oneofseveralforeignersappointedtoministerial
positionsinthehopethattheiroutsiderstatusandinternationalexperiencewouldhelp
Ukrainemakegoodonreformpromises,hopedtorecreatesuccessfulreformscarriedout
inhisnativeGeorgia.

Ayearafterhisappointment,thehealthbilloutliningreformsisstuckinparliament.

"It'sfrustrating.Therearevestedinterests-they'reeverywhere...Workingwiththe
parliamentwedifferonwhatabasicunderstandingofreformis,"KvitashvilitoldReuters.

Withoutacompletereboot,"financiallythesystemwillcollapseinaboutayear,ifnotfaster,
becausethereisnowayUkrainecanincreasespendingtoasustainablelevel,"hesaid.

DEMOCRACYSTRUGGLING

ThestalledhealthbillisoneofmanyexamplesoftheslowprogressUkraineismakingin
reformingitseconomy,promptingWesternbackerstoquestionKiev'scommitmentto
endingcrookedpracticesthatpushedthecountrytothebrinkofbankruptcy.

Squabblesinparliamenthaveheldupotherbills.Someofthesearerequiredforthe
disbursementoffundsundera$40-billioninternationalbailoutprogram,andKiev'sWestern
backerswarnthatitsattempttorebuilditselfontransparent,democraticlinesisunder
threat.

Ukraine'sprogresshasalsobeenhamperedbyaconflictintheeastofthecountrybetween
governmentforcesandpro-Russianseparatistsandadeteriorationinrelationswith
Russia,whichannexedtheCrimearegionin2014.

Thehealthministry'sreformswerefinalisedinAprilandbroughttoparliamentforapproval
inJulybutdiscussionshavedraggedon,Kvitashvilisaid.Ashedidso,heturnedoffhis
cellphone,itsringtonesettothethemetunefromTVseriesGameofThrones,inwhich
rivalclansbattleforinfluence.

Partoftheplanfocusesonseparatingtheprocurementanddeliveryofhealthservices,a
systemwhichuntilnowhasallowedmostcontractstobebrokeredinbackroomdealswith
littleexternaloversight.
AccordingtoareportbytheAnticorruptionActionCenter,aUkrainiancivilsociety
organization,onlysixoutof6,500authorizedpharmaceuticalcompaniestookpartinthe
procurementofHIVdrugsinUkrainein2013,sharingamongthemselvesamarketworth
$30.9million.

Thesalariesofdoctorsaretoolowtoeradicatetheuseofbribesbetweenpatientand
practitioner,whichmeansmanyofthehealthindustry'sfinancialdealingsaredoneinthe
shadows.

"YoucanseeheaddoctorsdrivingPorschesandhavingVertuphones,butthehospitalsare
inanabysmalcondition,"Kvitashvilisaid.

The"informal"partofthehealthcareeconomyamountstoabout$7billionperyear-more
thantriplethesizeofthestate'sannualexpenditureonhealth,heestimated.

FrustrationoverthelackofprogresspromptedKvitashvilitotenderhisresignationinthe
summer,onlytohaveitrejectedbyparliament.

Somecommentatorshavesaidhelackstheknow-howtonavigatethewebofallegiances
thatcontinuestobindUkraine'srulingclassdespiteavowedattemptstomoveonfromthe
politicalcronyismofthepast.

"Ibelievehewantsreforms,buthedoesn'ttotallyunderstandtherealityofUkraine-thatif
someonepromisestheirsupportitdoesn'tmeantheywon'ttryandtripyouup,"doctorand
healthcarecommentatorEvgenyKomarovskysaid

AlexandraUstinova,fromtheAnticorruptionActionCenter,alsosaidtherewasaconflictof
interestsinsomeoftheappointmentsattheministry,suchasbringinginalawyerwho
usedtoworkforapharmaceuticalcompanyownedbyamemberofparliamentfrom
PresidentPetroPoroshenko'sparty.

"CATASTROPHE"

GiovannaBarberis,theUkrainerepresentativeoftheUnitedNationsInternationalChildren's
EmergencyFund(UNICEF),said"theobstacles(toreforms)arehugeandsometimesit
looksprettygrimbecausethepaceisextremelyslow."

ThestartofanimmunizationcampaignfollowinganoutbreakofpolioonSept.1was
delayedbyseveralweeks,promptingEllynOgden,worldwidepoliocoordinatorforthe
UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment(USAID),tocriticizethe"highestlevels
ofgovernment"foraninadequateresponse.

Shesaid"noothercountryintheworldisinsuchadiresituationorshowssuchdisregard
forprotectingchildrenagainstchildhooddiseases."

TheGlobalPolioEradicationInitiative,whichisspearheadedbytheWorldHealth
Organization,said:"Forsometime,Ukrainehasbeenacatastrophewaitingtohappen."

Ukrainedidnotbuydrugs,medicinesorvaccinesformostofthisyearasthehealth
ministrysoughttoapproveatemporaryprocurementsystemviainternationalorganizations
tobypassthecompromisedsystemthatKvitashvilihopestoreform.

ThetemporarysystemwasfinalisedinlateOctober,andUkraineplanstobuyaround$100
millionofvaccinesandmedicines,butsevereshortagesremain.

"Therearenoanti-diphtheriavaccinesinthecountry,"healthcarecommentator
Komarovskysaid.

MeanwhilethemoredrasticreformbillislanguishinginparliamentandKvitashvilisayshis
resignationisstillonthetable.

"Wellmyletterisstillthere.Ididnotwithdrawit.WewillseehowtheParliamentwillact,"
hesaidbyemail.

[returntoContents]
Forwardemail

Thisemailwassenttodonald.jensen8@gmail.combydavidjohnson@starpower.net|
RapidremovalwithSafeUnsubscribe|Aboutourserviceprovider.

Johnson'sRussiaList|6368CircleDrive|Chincoteague|VA|23336
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 12/22/201509:27:59AM
To: RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Subject: FrumonTrump(someinterestingstuffinhere)

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/

TheGreatRepublicanRevolt

TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarentthehipsterprotesterswhoflittedinandoutofOccupyWall
Street.Theyarentthehashtavistsof#BlackLivesMatter.TheyarenttheremnantsoftheAmericanlabormovementorthe
savvyyoungdreamerswhoconfrontpoliticianswiththeirAmericanaccentsandun-Americanlegalstatus.

TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarethepeopleweusedtocallMiddleAmericans.Middle-classand
middle-agednotrichandnotpoorpeoplewhoareirkedwhenaskedtopress1forEnglish,andwhowonderhowwhite
malebecameanaccusationratherthanadescription.

Youcanmeasuretheirpessimisminpollsthataskabouttheirexpectationsfortheirlivesandforthoseoftheirchildren.
Onbothcounts,whiteswithoutacollegedegreeexpressthebleakestview.Youcanseetheeffectsoftheirdespairinthe
newstatisticsdescribinghorrifyingratesofsuicideandsubstance-abusefatalityamongthissamegroup,inmiddleage.

WhiteMiddleAmericansexpressheavymistrustofeveryinstitutioninAmericansociety:notonlygovernment,but
corporations,unions,eventhepoliticalpartytheytypicallyvotefortheRepublicanPartyofRomney,Ryan,and
McConnell,whichtheydespiseasasadcrewofweaklingsandsellouts.Theyarepissedoff.AndwhenDonaldTrump
camealong,theywerethepeoplewhotoldthepollsters,Thatsmyguy.

Theyarentnecessarilysuperconservative.Theyoftendontthinkinideologicaltermsatall.Buttheydostronglyfeelthat
lifeinthiscountryusedtobebetterforpeoplelikethemandtheywantthatoldercountryback.

Youhearfrompeopleliketheminmanyotherdemocraticcountriestoo.AcrossEurope,populistpartiesaredeliveringa
messagethatcombinesdefenseofthewelfarestatewithskepticismaboutimmigrationthatdenouncesthecorruptionof
parliamentarydemocracyandalsotherisksofglobalcapitalism.Someofthesepartieshavealeftishflavor,likeItalysFive
StarMovement.Somearerootedtotherightofcenter,liketheU.K.IndependenceParty.Somedescendfromneofascists,
likeFrancesNationalFront.OtherstracetheirDNAtoCommunistparties,likeSlovakiasgoverningDirectionSocial
Democracy.

ThesepopulistsseektodefendwhattheFrenchcallacquiredrightshealthcare,pensions,andotherprogramsthat
benefitolderpeopleagainstbankersandtechnocratswhoendlesslydemandausterityagainstmigrantswhomakenew
claimsandchallengeaccustomedwaysagainstaglobalizedmarketthatdepresseswagesandbenefits.IntheUnitedStates,
theyleanRepublicanbecausetheyfeartheDemocratswanttotakefromthemandredistributetoAmericanswhoare
newer,poorer,andintheirviewlessdeservingtospreadthewealtharound,incandidateBarackObamaswordstoJoe
thePlumberbackin2008.Yettheyhavecometofearmoreandmorestronglythattheirpartydoesnothavetheirbest
interestsatheart.

AmajorityofRepublicansworrythatcorporationsandthewealthyexerttoomuchpower.Theirpartyleadersworkto
ensurethatthesesamegroupscanexertevenmore.MainstreamRepublicanswerequiteateasewithtaxincreaseson
householdsearningmorethan$250,000intheaftermathoftheGreatRecessionandthesubsequentstimulus.Their
congressionalrepresentativeshadtheoppositepriorities.In2008,manyRepublicanprimaryvotershadagreedwithformer
ArkansasGovernorMikeHuckabee,whowantedtheirnextpresidenttoremindthemoftheguytheyworkwith,notthe
guywholaidthemoff.ButthoseRepublicansdidnotcountformuchoncetheprimariesended,andnormalpolitics
resumedbetweenthemulticulturalDemocratsandaplutocraticGOP.

Thisyear,theyarecountingformore.TheirrebellionagainstthepoweroforganizedmoneyhasupendedAmericanpolitics
inwaysthatmayreverberateforalongtime.Tounderstandwhatmaycomenext,wemustfirstreviewtherecentpast.

BenCarsonatatown-hallmeetingattheUniversityofNewHampshire.Throughoutthisstory,GOP
candidatesareshownonthestumpintheGraniteStatelastsummerandfall,inphotographsshotforThe
AtlanticandNewHampshiremagazine.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Notsolongago,manyobserversworriedthatAmericanshadlostinterestinpolitics.InhisfamousbookBowlingAlone,
publishedin2000,thesocialscientistRobertPutnambemoanedthecollapseinAmericanpoliticalparticipationduringthe
secondhalfofthe20thcentury.PutnamsuggestedthatthistrendwouldcontinueastheWorldWarIIgenerationgaveway
todisengagedGenXers.

ButevenasPutnamsbookwentintopaperback,thatnotionwasfallingbehindthetimes.Inthe1996presidentialelection,
voterturnouthadtumbledtothelowestlevelsincethe1920s,lessthan52percent.TurnoutroseslightlyinNovember2000.
Then,suddenly:overdrive.Inthepresidentialelectionsof2004and2008,voterturnoutspikedtolevelsnotseensince
beforethevotingagewasloweredto18,andin2012itdippedonlyalittle.Voterswereexcitedbyahailstormofdivisive
events:thedot-combust,theBush-versus-Gorerecount,the9/11terroristattacks,theIraqWar,thefinancialcrisis,the
bailoutsandstimulus,andtheAffordableCareAct.

PutnamwasrightthatAmericanswereturningawayfromtraditionalsourcesofinformation.Butthatwasbecausethey
wereturningtonewones:firstcablenewschannelsandpartisanpoliticaldocumentariesthenblogsandnewsaggregators
liketheDrudgeReportandTheHuffingtonPostafterthat,andmostdecisively,socialmedia.

PoliticswasbecomingmorecentraltoAmericansidentitiesinthe21stcenturythaniteverwasinthe20th.Wouldyoube
upsetifyourchildmarriedasupporterofadifferentpartyfromyourown?In1960,only5percentofAmericanssaidyes.
In2010,athirdofDemocratsandhalfofRepublicansdid.Politicalidentityhasbecomesocentralbecauseithascometo
overlapwithsomanyotheraspectsofidentity:race,religion,lifestyle.In1960,Iwouldnthavelearnedmuchaboutyour
politicsifyoutoldmethatyouhunted.Today,thathobbystronglysuggestsRepublicanloyalty.Unmarried?In1960,that
indicatedlittle.Today,itpredictsthatyoureaDemocrat,especiallyifyourealsoawoman.

Meanwhile,thedividinglinethatusedtobethemostcrucialofthemallclasshasincreasinglybecomeadivisionwithin
theparties,notbetweenthem.Since1984,nearlyeveryDemocraticpresidential-primaryracehasendedasacontest
betweenawinetrackcandidatewhoappealedtoprofessionals(GaryHart,MichaelDukakis,PaulTsongas,BillBradley,
andBarackObama)andabeertrackcandidatewhomobilizedtheremainsoftheoldindustrialworkingclass(Walter
Mondale,DickGephardt,BillClinton,AlGore,andHillaryClinton).TheRepublicanshavetheirequivalentinthebattles
betweenWallStreetandMainStreetcandidates.Untilthisdecade,however,bothpartiesandespeciallythehistorically
morecohesiveRepublicansmanagedtokeepsufficientclasspeacetopreservepartyunity.

Notanymore,atleastnotfortheRepublicans.

TheGreatRecessionendedinthesummerof2009.Sincethen,theU.S.economyhasbeengrowing,butmostincomes
havenotgrowncomparably.In2014,realmedianhouseholdincomeremainedalmost$4,000belowthepre-recessionlevel,
andwellbelowthelevelin1999.ThecountryhasrecoveredfromtheworsteconomicdisastersincetheGreatDepression.
Mostofitspeoplehavenot.ManyRepublicanshaventsharedintherecoveryandcontinuedupwardflightoftheirmore
affluentfellowpartisans.

ItwasthesepessimisticRepublicanswhopoweredtheTeaPartymovementof2009and2010.Theywerenot,asarule,
libertarianslookingforanultraminimalgovernment.ThecloseststudywehaveofthebeliefsofTeaPartysupporters,ledby
ThedaSkocpol,aHarvardpoliticalscientist,foundthatTeaPartiersjudgeentitlementprogramsnotintermsofabstract
free-marketorthodoxy,butaccordingtotheperceiveddeservingnessofrecipients.Thedistinctionbetweenworkersand
peoplewhodontworkisfundamentaltoTeaPartyideology.

MarcoRubioatatown-hallmeetingattheWolfeboroInninWolfeboroonOctober7.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

ItsuncertainwhetheranyTeaPartiereverreallycarriedaplacardthatreadkeepyourgovernmenthandsoffmymedicare.
Butifso,thatpersonwasntspoutinggibberish.TheObamaadministrationhadlaidhandsonMedicare.Ithopedtosqueeze
$500billionoutoftheprogramfrom2010to2020tofinancehealthinsurancefortheuninsured.Youdidnthavetolookup
thefigurestohaveasensethatmanyoftheuninsuredwerenoncitizens(20percent),orthatevenmorewereforeign-born
(27percent).IntheTeaPartysangrytown-hallmeetings,thisissueresonatedperhapsmoreloudlythananyotherthe
ultimateexampleofredistributionfromadeservingustoanundeservingthem.

YetevenastheRepublicanMainStreetprotestedObamacare,itrejectedthehardeningideologicalorthodoxyofRepublican
donorsandelectedofficials.AsubstantialminorityofRepublicansalmost30percentsaidtheywouldwelcomeheavy
taxesonthewealthy,accordingtoGallup.WithinthepartythatmadePaulRyansentitlement-slashingbudgetplana
centerpieceofpolicy,only21percentfavoredcutsinMedicareandonly17percentwantedtoseespendingonSocial
Securityreduced,accordingtoPew.LessthanathirdofordinaryRepublicanssupportedapathwaytocitizenshipforillegal
immigrants(againaccordingtoPew)amajority,bycontrast,favoredstepped-updeportation.

Asaclass,bigRepublicandonorscouldnotseeanyofthis,orwouldnot.Soneitherdidthepoliticianswhodependupon
them.Againstallevidence,bothgroupsinterpretedtheTeaPartyasamassmovementinfavoroftheagendaoftheWall
StreetJournaleditorialpage.Oneofthemoredangerouspleasuresofgreatwealthisthatyouneverhavetohearanyonetell
youthatyouarecompletelywrong.

JebBushonhiscampaignbusinRyeonNovember3.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/The
Atlantic)

ItwasmittromneywhogotthefirstpostTeaPartypresidentialnomination,andheranonaplatformofConservatism
Classic:taxcuts,budgetcuts,deregulation,freetradealllightlyseasonedwithsomeconcessionstothebaseregarding
stricterimmigrationenforcement.Therankandfiledidnotlikeit.Buttheycouldnotstopit.Thebasekeptelevatingnot
Romneysintofirstplace,andeachrapidlyfailedorfizzledRomney,supportedbyacumulativetotalof$139millionin
primaryfundsbyMarch2012,trundledon.

Romneyultimatelylostthepresidentialelection,ofcourse,tothesurpriseanddismayofapartyeliteconfidentofvictory
untiltheveryend.Onemighthaveexpectedthisshocktoforcearethink.TheRepublicanshadnowlostfouroutofthe
pastsixpresidentialelections.AnotherelectionhadbeenwononlyintheElectoralCollege,despitethelossofthepopular
vote.Eventheirbestshowing,50.7percentofthevotein2004,representedtheclosestescapeofanyincumbentpresident
whowonreelectionsincethefirstrecordedpopularvote.

Andyet,withinhoursofRomneysdefeat,Republicandonors,talkers,andofficialsconvergedonthemaximallyself-
exculpatingexplanation.TheproblemhadnotbeentheplantophaseoutMedicareforpeopleyoungerthan55.Orthelack
ofideasabouthowtoraisewages.Orthecommitmenttoendinghealth-insurancecoverageformillionsofworking-age
Americans.Ortheanthemstowealthcreationandentrepreneurshipinacountryincreasinglyskepticalofboth.No,the
problemwastheoneelementofRomneysmessagetheyhadneverlikedanyway:immigrationenforcement.

Ownersofcapitalassets,employersoflow-skilllaborers,andhighlycompensatedprofessionalstendtobenefit
economicallyfromthearrivalofimmigrants.Theyarebetterpositionedtoenjoytheattractiveculturalandsocialresultsof
migration(more-interestingfood!)andtoprotectthemselvesagainsttheburdensomeimpacts(surgesinnon-English-
proficientpupilsinpublicschools).Apro-immigrationpolicyshiftwasonemoreassertionofclassinterestinaparty
programalreadybrimfulofthem.

NobodyexpressedthepartyelitesconsensusviewmoreassuredlythanCharlesKrauthammer.Ignorethetrimmers,he
wroteinhisfirstpostelectioncolumn.Theresnoneedforradicalchange.Theotherpartythinksitownsthedemographic
futurecounterthatinonestrokebyfixingtheLatinoproblem.Donot,however,abandonthepartysphilosophicalanchor
Noreinventionwhennoneisneeded.

Wevegottagetridoftheimmigrationissuealtogether,SeanHannitytoldhisradioaudiencethedayaftertheelection.
Itssimpleformetofixit.Ithinkyoucontroltheborderfirst,youcreateapathwayforthosepeoplethatarehere,you
dontsay,Yougottagohome.AndthatisapositionthatIveevolvedon.

Aco-ownerofFoxNewsKrauthammerandHannitysTVnetworkagreed:Musthavesweeping,generousimmigration
reform,tweetedRupertMurdochonNovember7,2012.Itwouldbeinhumanetosendthosepeopleback,tosend12
millionpeopleoutofthiscountry,thecasinomogulandRepublicandonorSheldonAdelsontoldTheWallStreetJournalin
Decemberofthatyear.Wevegottofindaway,findaroute,forthosepeopletogetlegalcitizenship.TheRepublican
NationalCommitteemadeitallofficialinaMarch2013postelectionreportsignedbypartyeminences.Thereportgenerally
avoidedpolicyrecommendations,withanotableexception:Wemustembraceandchampioncomprehensiveimmigration
reform.Toadvancethecause,PaulSinger,oneofthemostopen-pocketedGOPdonors,madeasix-figurecontributionto
theNationalImmigrationForumthatspring.

IfallofthissoundslikeaprescriptionforaJebBushcandidacyforpresidentwell,perhapsthatwasnotanentirely
unintendedconsequence.

AlmostassoonasthenewCongressconvenedin2013,SenateRepublicansworkedtostrikeadealoverimmigration
issues.AbipartisanGangofEight,includingFloridasambitiousyoungMarcoRubio,agreedonaplanthatwouldcreatea
pathtocitizenshipformillionsofillegalimmigrantsandsubstantiallyincreaselegal-immigrationlimitsforbothhigh-and
low-skilledworkers.Otherwise,thepartyyieldedonnothinganddoubleddownoneverything.NoU-turns.No
compromises.

TedCruzataPracticalFederalismforumatSouthernNewHampshireUniversity,inHooksett,onOctober3.
(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

Thenewstrategysoonprovedatotalandutterfailure.GeorgeW.Bushstaxcutsforhighearnersexpiredin2013,and
Republicanscouldnotrenewthem.Thedrivetocutthedeficitendedinbudgetsequestration,whoseharshesteffectfellon
themilitary.TheGangofEightdealnevercametoavoteintheHouse.Allthewhile,Republicansapprovalratingsslipped
andslid.InsteadofholdingontotheirbaseandaddingHispanics,Republicansalienatedtheirbaseinreturnfornogainsat
all.Bymid-2015,amajorityofself-identifiedRepublicansdisapprovedoftheirpartyscongressionalleadershipanintensity
ofdisapprovalneverseenbytheRepublicanmajorityofthe1990snorbyDemocratsduringtheirtimeinthemajorityafter
the2006midtermelections.

Infact,disapprovalhadflaredintoanoutrightrevoltoftheRepublicanbaseinthesummerof2014.HouseMajorityLeader
EricCantor,theNo.2manintheRepublicancaucus,hademergedasaleaderofthenewlineonimmigration.Upfor
reelectioninVirginiasSeventhDistrict,CantorwaschallengedthatyearbyaconservativeChristianprofessorof
economics,DaveBrat.DuringObamasfirstterm,TeaPartyinsurgentshadtoppledincumbentsanddefeatedparty
favoritesinprimariesfromDelawaretoNevada.Thosechallengeshadendedbadlyinthegeneralelection,forthemostpart:
TeaPartyRepublicanslostatleastfiveSenateseatsthatmightplausiblyhavebeenwon.Partyleadersbelievedthelesson
hadbeenlearnedandexpectedtheirvoterstobemoretractableinfutureelections.

CantorslosstoBratjoltedHouseleaders.Immigrationreformslippedofftheiragenda.MarcoRubiorepudiatedhisown
deal.ButRepublicanelitesoutsideCongressdidnotgetthemessage.TheyrationalizedCantorsdefeatasafreakevent,the
sadconsequenceofanationallymindedpoliticiansneglectofhisdistrict.TheycontinuedtofillthecoffersofJebBush
and,toalesserextent,RubioandScottWalker,allreliablepurveyorsofConservatismClassic.LastFebruary,threeofthe
partysmostimportantmoneymenthefast-foodexecutiveAndrewPuzder,thehealth-careinvestorMikeFernandez,and
thenationalfinancechairofMittRomneys2012campaign,SpencerZwickpubliclyurgedtheGOPtopushaheadtoward
more-openimmigration.Americashouldbeadestinationforhardworkingimmigrantsfromallovertheworld,said
Puzder,anadvocateofimportingmorelow-skilledlaborerstomeettheneedsofhishigh-turnoverindustry.Zwicksaidthat
anypresidentialcandidatewhowantedtobetakenseriouslyhadbetterbeinasimilarplacetoJebBushonthe
immigrationissue.

MaybeitwasnotagoodideaforJebBushsalliestodescribehisfund-raisingstrategyasshockandawe.Perhapsthe
IraqWarreferencestirredpainfulmemories,evenamongRepublicans.Still,Bushsfund-raisinggenuinelyinspiredawe.In
hisfinancialdisclosureforthesecondquarterof2015,Bushreportedraising$11.4millionforhisformalcampaignand
another$103millionforhissuperPAC.Thesefundswereprovidedbyarelativelysmallnumberofverywealthypeople.Of
Bushspresidential-campaigndollars,only3percentarrivedinamountsof$200orless.Almost82percentarrivedinthe
maximumincrementof$2,700.Nearly80percentofBushssuper-PACtakearrivedinincrementsof$25,000ormore
aboutaquarterofthehaulwasmadeupofdonationsof$1millionormore.

Yetseldominthehistoryoffund-raisinghassomuchboughtsolittle,sofleetingly.BetweenDecember2014andSeptember
2015,JebBushplungedfromfirstplaceintheRepublicanfieldtofifth.BetweenlateSeptemberandmid-October,he
purchased60percentofallpoliticalspotsairedinNewHampshire.Thatadbarragepushedhispollnumbersinthestate
fromabout9percenttoabout8percent.

ChrisChristieatthe2015NewHampshireEducationSummitinLondonerryonAugust19.(MarkOstow/
NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

AsthegovernorofFlorida,Bushhadcuttaxesandbalancedbudgets.Hedchallengedunionsandchampionedcharter
schools.Atthesametime,Bushpassionatelysupportedimmigrationliberalization.Thecentraleventinhislifehistorywas
hisreinventionasanhonoraryLatinoAmericanwhenhemarriedaMexicanwoman,ColumbaGarnicadeGallo.Hespoke
Spanishathome.HeconvertedtoCatholicism.HesoughthisfortunewithaCubanAmericanbusinesspartner.Inhismost
quotablephrase,hedescribedillegalimmigrationasanactoflove.

BushsupdateofConservatismClassichadmadehimahitwiththepartysbigdonors.HehadwonaccoladesfromKarl
Rove(thedeepestthinkeronourside)andArthurBrooks,thepresidentoftheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute(atop-
drawerintellect).YetwithinfiveweeksofhisformaldeclarationofcandidacyonJune15,Bushscampaignhadbeen
brutallyrejectedbytheGOPrankandfile.

FromJupiterIsland,Florida,toGreenwich,ConnecticutfromDallassHighlandParktoSeaIsland,GeorgiafromFifth
AvenueinManhattantoCaliforniasNewportBeach,thebaffledquestionresounded:Whatwentwrong?

Big-dollarRepublicanfavoriteshaverunintotroublebefore,ofcourse.RudyGiulianiimplodedin200708MittRomneys
2012nominationwasknockedoffcourseasRepublicansworkedtheirwaythroughaseriesofalternativefront-runners:
RickPerry,HermanCain,NewtGingrich,andfinallyRickSantorum.ButGiulianilostgroundtotworivalsequally
acceptabletothedonorelite,ornearlyso:MittRomneyandJohnMcCain.In201112,thelongestanyofthenot
Romneysremainedinfirstplacewassixweeks.Inbothcycles,resistancetothepartyfavoritewasconcentratedamong
socialandreligiousconservatives.

Themutinyofthe2016electioncyclehasbeendifferent.Bythefallof2015,amajorityofRepublicansfavoredcandidates
whohadneverbeenelectedtoanything:DonaldTrump,BenCarson,andCarlyFiorina.Fiorinascampaignwasperhapsnot
sounusual.AformerCEO,sheappealedtothesamebusiness-mindedRepublicanswhomighthavevotedforRomneyin
2012.CarsonappealedtothesamereligiousconservativesthatcandidateslikeMikeHuckabeeandSantorumhadappealed
toinpriorpresidentialcycles.WhatwasnewandastonishingwastheTrumpboom.Hejettisonedpartyorthodoxyonissues
rangingfromentitlementspendingtoforeignpolicy.Hescoffedattradeagreements.HesaidrudethingsaboutSheldon
AdelsonandtheKochbrothers.Hereviledthecampaigncontributionsofbigdonorshimselfincluded!asopenand
blatantfavor-buying.TrumpssurgewasadecisiverepudiationbymillionsofRepublicanvotersofthecollectivewisdomof
theirpartyelite.

WhenTrumpfirsteruptedintotheRepublicanraceinJune,hedidsowithamessageofgrimpessimism.Wegot$18
trillionindebt.WegotnothingbutproblemsWeredying.Weredying.WeneedmoneyWehavelosers.Wehave
peoplethatdonthaveit.Wehavepeoplethataremorallycorrupt.Wehavepeoplethataresellingthiscountrydownthe
drainTheAmericandreamisdead.

ThatmessagedidnotresonatewiththosewhodriddentheS&P500fromlessthan900in2009tomorethan2,000in
2015.Butitfoundanaudienceallthesame.HalfofTrumpssupporterswithintheGOPhadstoppedtheireducationator
beforehigh-schoolgraduation,accordingtothepollingfirmYouGov.Only19percenthadacollegeorpostcollegedegree.
Thirty-eightpercentearnedlessthan$50,000.Only11percentearnedmorethan$100,000.

TrumpRepublicanswerenotideologicallymilitant.Just13percentsaidtheywereveryconservative19percentdescribed
themselvesasmoderate.NorweretheyhighlyreligiousbyRepublicanstandards.

Left:CarlyFiorinaonafactorytouratRapidSheetMetalinNashuaonOctober5.Right:MikeHuckabeeat
formerMassachusettsSenatorScottBrownsBackyardNoBSBBQinRyeonOctober16.(MarkOstow/
NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

WhatsetthemapartfromotherRepublicanswastheireconomicinsecurityandtheintensityoftheireconomicnationalism.
Sixty-threepercentofTrumpsupporterswishedtoendbirthrightcitizenshipforthechildrenofillegalimmigrantsbornon
U.S.soiladozenpointshigherthanthenormforallRepublicans.MorethanotherRepublicans,Trumpsupporters
distrustedBarackObamaasalienanddangerous:Only21percentacknowledgedthatthepresidentwasbornintheUnited
States,accordingtoanAugustsurveybytheDemocratic-orientedpollingfirmPPP.Sixty-sixpercentbelievedthepresident
wasaMuslim.

Trumppromisedtoprotectthesevoterspensionsfromtheirownpartysausterity.WevegotSocialSecuritythatsgoing
tobedestroyedifsomebodylikemedoesntbringmoneyintothecountry.Alltheseotherpeoplewanttocutthehelloutof
it.ImnotgoingtocutitatallImgoingtobringmoneyin,andweregoingtosaveit.

HepromisedtoprotecttheirchildrenfrombeingdrawnintoanotherwarintheMiddleEast,thistimeinSyria.Ifwere
goingtohaveWorldWarIII,hetoldTheWashingtonPostinOctober,itsnotgoingtobeoverSyria.Asforthe
politiciansthreateningtoshootdowntheRussianjetsflyingmissionsinSyria,Iwontevencallthemhawks.Icallthem
thefools.

HepromisedacampaignindependentoftheinfluencesofmoneythathadswayedsomanyRepublicanracesofthepast.I
willtellyouthatoursystemisbroken.Igavetomanypeople.Beforethis,beforetwomonthsago,Iwasabusinessman.I
givetoeverybody.Whentheycall,Igive.Andyouknowwhat?WhenIneedsomethingfromthem,twoyearslater,three
yearslater,Icallthem.Theyarethereforme.Andthatsabrokensystem.

HepromisedabovealltoprotecttheirwagesfrombeingundercutbyRepublicanimmigrationpolicy.

Left:RandPaulatameetandgreetatMaryAnnsDinerinWindhamonJuly26.Right:JohnKasichata
town-hallmeetingintheVeteransofForeignWarsbuildinginDerryonAugust12.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

Itcannotlast,canit?Thecasinodoesnotalwayswin,StuartStevens,MittRomneysleadstrategistduringthe2012
campaign,quippedtomeinSeptember.Butthatsthewaytobet.Thecasinowonin2012,andwillverylikelywinagain
in2016.

Andyetalready,Trumphasdestroyedoneelite-favoredpresidentialcandidacy,ScottWalkers,andcrippledtwoothers,Jeb
BushsandChrisChristies.Hehasthrownintodisarraythepartyspost-2012comebackstrategy,andpulledintothecenter
ofnationaldiscussionissuesandconstituencieslongrelegatedtothemargins.

SomethinghaschangedinAmericanpoliticssincetheGreatRecession.Theoldslogansringhollow.Theinsurgent
candidatesarelessabsurd,theorthodoxcandidatesmorevulnerable.TheGOPdonoreliteplannedadynasticrestorationin
2016.Instead,ittriggeredaninternalclasswar.

Thecontestforthepresidencyturnsonexternaleventsasmuchasormorethaninternalpartypolitics.GeorgeW.
Bushsteambelievedthatthelast-minuterevelationofa1976drunk-drivingarrestcosthimthepopularvoteinthe2000
election.JimmyCarterblamedhis1980defeatonthedebacleoftheattemptedrescueofAmericanhostagesinIran.So
anythingcanhappen.Butthatdoesnotmeananythingwillhappen.Barringshocks,presidentialelectionsturnonthe
fundamentalsofeconomics,demography,andideology.

ThepuzzleforthemoniedleadersoftheRepublicanPartyis:Whatnow?Andwhatnextafterthat?Noneoftheoptions
facingtheGOPeliteisentirelycongenial.Butthereappeartobefourpathstheelitecouldfollow,forthiscampaignseason
andbeyond.Theyleadthepartyinverydifferentdirections.

Option1:DoubleDown
ThepremiseofthepastfewthousandwordsisthattheRepublicandonorelitefailedtoimposeitspreferredcandidateonan
unwillingbasein2015forbigandimportantreasons.Butmaybethatpremiseiswrong.MaybeJebBushhasjustbeenabad
candidatewitharadioactivelastname.Maybethesamemessageandplatformwouldhaveworkedfineifespousedbya
fresherandliveliercandidate.SuchisthetheoryofMarcoRubioscampaign.Orevenifthedonormessageandplatform
havetroublesmaybe$100millioninnegativeadscanscorchanypotentialalternative,enablingthedonor-backedcandidate
towinbydefault.

AndifnotRubio,maybethecoredonormessagecouldstillworkifjoinedtoatrueoutsidercandidacy:BenCarsons,for
example.Carsonisoftenregardedasaprotestcandidate,butasTheWeeklyStandardsFredBarnesenthusedbackin
January2015:OnethingnotindoubtisCarsonsconservatism.Hestherealdeal,aneconomic,social,andforeignpolicy
conservative.Carsonmaysaywackythings,buthedoesnotsayheterodoxthings.

YeteveniftheRepublicandonorelitecankeepcontrolofthepartywhiledoublingdown,itsdoubtfulthatthetacticcan
ultimatelywinpresidentialelections.Thechangenothingbutimmigrationadvicewasaself-flatteringfantasyfromthe
start.ImmigrationisnotthemainreasonRepublicanpresidentialcandidateslosesobadlyamongLatinoandAsianAmerican
voters,andneverwas:Latinovotersaremorelikelytolisteducationandhealthcareasissuesthatareextremelyimportant
tothem.AmajorityofAsianAmericansarenon-Christianandsusceptibletoexclusionbysectarianreligiousthemes.

So

Option2:TacticalConcession

Perhapssomeconcessiontothedisgruntledbaseisneeded.ThatsthetheoryoftheCruzcampaignandafteracourse
correctionalsooftheChristiecampaign.Insteadof2013sConservatismClassicPlusImmigrationLiberalization,Cruz
andChristieareurgingConservatismClassicPlusImmigrationEnforcement.True,Cruzscarefullyselectedwordson
immigrationleaveopenthepossibilityofguest-workerprogramsorotherpro-employerreformsafteraburstofborder
enforcement.ButCruzandChristiehaveseenthereactiontoDonaldTrumpsmessage,andappeartoappreciatetheneedto
atleastseemtodosomethingtoredressthegrievancesoftheRepublicanbase.

MuchofthedonorelitecouldlikelybeconvincedthatwhileJebBushsideaofimmigrationreformwouldbegoodtohave,
itisntamust-have.Justasthepartyelitereachedapactonabortionwithsocialconservativesinthe1980s,itcould
concedetheimmigrationissuetoitsMainStreetbaseinthe2010s.

YetanarrowfocusonimmigrationpopulismaloneseemsinsufficienttoraiseRepublicanhopes.Trumpshrewdlyjoinshis
immigrationpopulismtotradepopulism.OntheDemocraticside,BernieSanderssoppositiontoopenbordersislogically
connectedtohishopesforaDemocraticSocialistfuture:HisadmiredDenmarkupholdshighlaborstandardsalongwith
someoftheworldstoughestimmigrationrules.Severedfromalargeragenda,howeverasMittRomneytriedtoseverthe
issuein2012immigrationpopulismlooksatbestlikepandering,andatworstlikeidentitypoliticsforwhitevoters.Ina
societythatisandalwayshasbeenmultiethnicandpolyglot,anynationalpartymustcompetemorebroadlythanthat.

Whichbringsusto

Option3:TrueReform

Admittedly,thismaybethemostuncongenialthoughtofthemall,butpartyelitescouldtrytoopenmoreideologicalspace
fortheeconomicinterestsofthemiddleclass.Makepeacewithuniversalhealth-insurancecoverage:MendObamacare
ratherthanendit.Cuttaxeslessatthetop,andusethemoneytodelivermorebenefitstoworkingfamiliesinthemiddle.
Deviseimmigrationpolicytosupportwages,notundercutthem.Worrymoreaboutregulationsthatartificiallytransfer
wealthupward,andlessaboutregulationsthatconstrainfinancialspeculation.Takeseriouslyissuessuchasthelengthof
commutes,nursing-homecosts,andtheanticompetitivepracticesthatinflatecollegetuition.RememberthatRepublican
voterscaremoreaboutaligninggovernmentwiththeirvaluesofworkandfamilythantheycareaboutcuttingthesizeof
governmentasanendinitself.Recognizethatthegimmickofmobilizingthebasewithculture-waroutragesstopped
workingatleastadecadeago.

Left:RickSantorumatMurphysDinerinManchesteronJuly25.Center:LindseyGrahamattheMilford
LaborDayparadeonSeptember7.Right:GeorgePatakiattheGraniteStateBrewersAssociationSummerfest
atArmsPark,inManchester,onJuly25.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)

Suchapartywouldcuthealth-carecostsbysqueezingproviders,notyoungbeneficiaries.Itwouldboostproductivityby
investinginhardinfrastructurebridges,airports,water-treatmentplants.ItwouldrestoreDwightEisenhowertothe
RepublicanpantheonalongsideRonaldReaganandemphasizethecenterincenter-right.

Toimaginethechangeistoseehowconvulsiveitwouldbeandhowunlikely.True,center-rightconservativeparties
backedbybroadmultiethniccoalitionsofthemiddleclasshavegainedandexercisedpowerinotherEnglish-speaking
countries,evenasRepublicanslostthepresidencyin2008and2012.Butthemost-influentialvoicesinAmerican
conservatismrejecttheexperienceoftheirforeigncounterpartsasweak,unprincipled,andunnecessary.Inparliamentary
democracy,winningorlosingisstarklybinary:Apartyeitherisinpoweroristheopposition.IntheAmericansystem,that
binaryismuchblurrier.Republicanscan,ofcourse,exertsomecontrolovergovernmentaslongastheyholdanyoneof
theHouse,Senate,orpresidency.

Whichbringsusfinallyto

Option4:ChangetheRulesoftheGame

Thefilibusterusedtobebad.Nowitsgood.SoFredThompson,thelateactorandformerRepublicansenator,jokingly
toldanaudienceonaNationalReviewcruiseshortlyafterBarackObamawonthepresidencyforthefirsttime.How
partisansfeelaboutprocessissuesisnotoriouslyrelatedtowhatprocesswouldbenefitthematanygivenmoment.Liberals
lovedtheinterventionistSupremeCourtinthe1960sand70s,hateditinthe1990sand2000sandmayrotatetheir
opinionagainifaPresidentHillaryClintoncantiltamajorityoftheSupremeCourttheirway.Itsanoldstorythatmayfind
anewtwistifandwhenRepublicansacknowledgethatthepresidencymaybeattainableonlyaftertheymakepolicy
changesthatareunacceptabletothepartyelite.

Therearemetrics,afterall,bywhichthepost-2009GOPappearstobeasupremelysuccessfulpoliticalparty.Recently,
RoryCooper,ofthecommunicationsfirmPurpleStrategies,talliedanetgaintotheRepublicansof69seatsintheHouseof
Representatives,13seatsintheSenate,900-plusseatsinstatelegislatures,and12governorshipssinceObamatookoffice.
Withthatkindofgriponstategovernment,inparticular,Republicansarewellpositionedtowriteelectionandvotingrules
thatsustaintheirholdonthenationallegislature.Thepresidentmaybeabletograntformerlyillegalimmigrantstherightto
work,buthecannotgrantthemtherighttovote.Inthislight,insteadofrevisingRepublicanpoliciestostopfutureBarack
ObamasandHillaryClintons,maybeitsnecessarytoreviseonlythepartyrulestostopfutureDonaldTrumpsfrom
confrontingpartyeliteswiththeirownunpopularity.

TheinauguralissueofTheWeeklyStandard,theconservativemagazinelaunchedin1995,depictedthenSpeakerofthe
HouseNewtGingrichswingingintoaction,asubmachinegunblazinginhislefthand,undertheheadlinePermanent
Offense.Butthatwasthen.Maybethemorenaturalconditionofconservativepartiesispermanentdefenseandwhere
bettertowagealong,grindingdefensivecampaignthaninCongressandthestatehouses?Maybethepresidencyitself
shouldberegardedasoneofthosethingsthatisgoodtohavebutnotamust-have,especiallyifobtainingitrequires
uncomfortablechange.

Whathappenstoanelitewhosefollowerswithdrawtheirassent?Doesitself-examine?Ordoesittakerefugeindenial?
Doesitchange?Ordoesittrytopreventchange?Doesitchallengeitselftobuildanewpoliticalmajority?Ordoesitseize
theopportunitiestheAmericanpoliticalsystemofferstocompactandpurposefulminorities?Whenitsoldanswersfail,will
itthinkanew?Orwillitsimplyrepeatlouderthedogmasthatenthralledsupportersinthepast?Americanslovethecrushof
competition,thehard-foughtstruggle,thelong-sloggingrace.ButmuchmorethanthepunditsWhowillwin?,itisthese
deeperquestionsfromtheelectionof2016thatwillshapethefutureofAmericanpolitics.
From: RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Senttime: 12/22/201501:04:38PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:FrumonTrump(someinterestingstuffinhere)

Bob:thisisaveryinterestingpiece--andarathersoberingone.Thanks.

Bestwishestoyouandyoursfortheholidays.Let'sgettogethersoonaftertheNewYear.

Bob

From:RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
To:RobertNurick<nurickrc@yahoo.com>
Sent:Tuesday,December22,201512:27PM
Subject:FrumonTrump(someinterestingstuffinhere)

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/01/the-great-republican-revolt/419118/

TheGreatRepublicanRevolt

TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarentthehipsterprotesterswhoflittedinandoutof
OccupyWallStreet.Theyarentthehashtavistsof#BlackLivesMatter.TheyarenttheremnantsoftheAmerican
labormovementorthesavvyyoungdreamerswhoconfrontpoliticianswiththeirAmericanaccentsandun-
Americanlegalstatus.
TheangriestandmostpessimisticpeopleinAmericaarethepeopleweusedtocallMiddleAmericans.Middle-
classandmiddle-agednotrichandnotpoorpeoplewhoareirkedwhenaskedtopress1forEnglish,andwho
wonderhowwhitemalebecameanaccusationratherthanadescription.
Youcanmeasuretheirpessimisminpollsthataskabouttheirexpectationsfortheirlivesandforthoseoftheir
children.Onbothcounts,whiteswithoutacollegedegreeexpressthebleakestview.Youcanseetheeffectsof
theirdespairinthenewstatisticsdescribinghorrifyingratesofsuicideandsubstance-abusefatalityamongthis
samegroup,inmiddleage.
WhiteMiddleAmericansexpressheavymistrustofeveryinstitutioninAmericansociety:notonlygovernment,
butcorporations,unions,eventhepoliticalpartytheytypicallyvotefortheRepublicanPartyofRomney,Ryan,
andMcConnell,whichtheydespiseasasadcrewofweaklingsandsellouts.Theyarepissedoff.Andwhen
DonaldTrumpcamealong,theywerethepeoplewhotoldthepollsters,Thatsmyguy.
Theyarentnecessarilysuperconservative.Theyoftendontthinkinideologicaltermsatall.Buttheydo
stronglyfeelthatlifeinthiscountryusedtobebetterforpeoplelikethemandtheywantthatoldercountry
back.
Youhearfrompeopleliketheminmanyotherdemocraticcountriestoo.AcrossEurope,populistpartiesare
deliveringamessagethatcombinesdefenseofthewelfarestatewithskepticismaboutimmigrationthat
denouncesthecorruptionofparliamentarydemocracyandalsotherisksofglobalcapitalism.Someofthese
partieshavealeftishflavor,likeItalysFiveStarMovement.Somearerootedtotherightofcenter,liketheU.K.
IndependenceParty.Somedescendfromneofascists,likeFrancesNationalFront.OtherstracetheirDNAto
Communistparties,likeSlovakiasgoverningDirectionSocialDemocracy.
ThesepopulistsseektodefendwhattheFrenchcallacquiredrightshealthcare,pensions,andother
programsthatbenefitolderpeopleagainstbankersandtechnocratswhoendlesslydemandausterityagainst
migrantswhomakenewclaimsandchallengeaccustomedwaysagainstaglobalizedmarketthatdepresses
wagesandbenefits.IntheUnitedStates,theyleanRepublicanbecausetheyfeartheDemocratswanttotake
fromthemandredistributetoAmericanswhoarenewer,poorer,andintheirviewlessdeservingtospreadthe
wealtharound,incandidateBarackObamaswordstoJoethePlumberbackin2008.Yettheyhavecometo
fearmoreandmorestronglythattheirpartydoesnothavetheirbestinterestsatheart.
AmajorityofRepublicansworrythatcorporationsandthewealthyexerttoomuchpower.Theirpartyleaders
worktoensurethatthesesamegroupscanexertevenmore.MainstreamRepublicanswerequiteateasewith
taxincreasesonhouseholdsearningmorethan$250,000intheaftermathoftheGreatRecessionandthe
subsequentstimulus.Theircongressionalrepresentativeshadtheoppositepriorities.In2008,manyRepublican
primaryvotershadagreedwithformerArkansasGovernorMikeHuckabee,whowantedtheirnextpresidentto
remindthemoftheguytheyworkwith,nottheguywholaidthemoff.ButthoseRepublicansdidnotcountfor
muchoncetheprimariesended,andnormalpoliticsresumedbetweenthemulticulturalDemocratsanda
plutocraticGOP.
Thisyear,theyarecountingformore.Theirrebellionagainstthepoweroforganizedmoneyhasupended
Americanpoliticsinwaysthatmayreverberateforalongtime.Tounderstandwhatmaycomenext,wemustfirst
reviewtherecentpast.

BenCarsonatatown-hallmeetingattheUniversityofNewHampshire.Throughoutthisstory,GOPcandidates
areshownonthestumpintheGraniteStatelastsummerandfall,inphotographsshotforTheAtlanticandNew
Hampshiremagazine.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Notsolongago,manyobserversworriedthatAmericanshadlostinterestinpolitics.InhisfamousbookBowling
Alone,publishedin2000,thesocialscientistRobertPutnambemoanedthecollapseinAmericanpolitical
participationduringthesecondhalfofthe20thcentury.Putnamsuggestedthatthistrendwouldcontinueasthe
WorldWarIIgenerationgavewaytodisengagedGenXers.
ButevenasPutnamsbookwentintopaperback,thatnotionwasfallingbehindthetimes.Inthe1996
presidentialelection,voterturnouthadtumbledtothelowestlevelsincethe1920s,lessthan52percent.
TurnoutroseslightlyinNovember2000.Then,suddenly:overdrive.Inthepresidentialelectionsof2004and
2008,voterturnoutspikedtolevelsnotseensincebeforethevotingagewasloweredto18,andin2012it
dippedonlyalittle.Voterswereexcitedbyahailstormofdivisiveevents:thedot-combust,theBush-versus-
Gorerecount,the9/11terroristattacks,theIraqWar,thefinancialcrisis,thebailoutsandstimulus,andthe
AffordableCareAct.
PutnamwasrightthatAmericanswereturningawayfromtraditionalsourcesofinformation.Butthatwas
becausetheywereturningtonewones:firstcablenewschannelsandpartisanpoliticaldocumentariesthen
blogsandnewsaggregatorsliketheDrudgeReportandTheHuffingtonPostafterthat,andmostdecisively,
socialmedia.

PoliticswasbecomingmorecentraltoAmericansidentitiesinthe21stcenturythaniteverwasinthe20th.
Wouldyoubeupsetifyourchildmarriedasupporterofadifferentpartyfromyourown?In1960,only5percent
ofAmericanssaidyes.In2010,athirdofDemocratsandhalfofRepublicansdid.Politicalidentityhasbecome
socentralbecauseithascometooverlapwithsomanyotheraspectsofidentity:race,religion,lifestyle.In
1960,Iwouldnthavelearnedmuchaboutyourpoliticsifyoutoldmethatyouhunted.Today,thathobby
stronglysuggestsRepublicanloyalty.Unmarried?In1960,thatindicatedlittle.Today,itpredictsthatyourea
Democrat,especiallyifyourealsoawoman.
Meanwhile,thedividinglinethatusedtobethemostcrucialofthemallclasshasincreasinglybecomea
divisionwithintheparties,notbetweenthem.Since1984,nearlyeveryDemocraticpresidential-primaryrace
hasendedasacontestbetweenawinetrackcandidatewhoappealedtoprofessionals(GaryHart,Michael
Dukakis,PaulTsongas,BillBradley,andBarackObama)andabeertrackcandidatewhomobilizedthe
remainsoftheoldindustrialworkingclass(WalterMondale,DickGephardt,BillClinton,AlGore,andHillary
Clinton).TheRepublicanshavetheirequivalentinthebattlesbetweenWallStreetandMainStreet
candidates.Untilthisdecade,however,bothpartiesandespeciallythehistoricallymorecohesiveRepublicans
managedtokeepsufficientclasspeacetopreservepartyunity.
Notanymore,atleastnotfortheRepublicans.
TheGreatRecessionendedinthesummerof2009.Sincethen,theU.S.economyhasbeengrowing,butmost
incomeshavenotgrowncomparably.In2014,realmedianhouseholdincomeremainedalmost$4,000below
thepre-recessionlevel,andwellbelowthelevelin1999.Thecountryhasrecoveredfromtheworsteconomic
disastersincetheGreatDepression.Mostofitspeoplehavenot.ManyRepublicanshaventsharedinthe
recoveryandcontinuedupwardflightoftheirmoreaffluentfellowpartisans.
ItwasthesepessimisticRepublicanswhopoweredtheTeaPartymovementof2009and2010.Theywerenot,
asarule,libertarianslookingforanultraminimalgovernment.ThecloseststudywehaveofthebeliefsofTea
Partysupporters,ledbyThedaSkocpol,aHarvardpoliticalscientist,foundthatTeaPartiersjudgeentitlement
programsnotintermsofabstractfree-marketorthodoxy,butaccordingtotheperceiveddeservingnessof
recipients.ThedistinctionbetweenworkersandpeoplewhodontworkisfundamentaltoTeaPartyideology.

MarcoRubioatatown-hallmeetingattheWolfeboroInninWolfeboroonOctober7.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
ItsuncertainwhetheranyTeaPartiereverreallycarriedaplacardthatreadkeepyourgovernmenthandsoff
mymedicare.Butifso,thatpersonwasntspoutinggibberish.TheObamaadministrationhadlaidhandson
Medicare.Ithopedtosqueeze$500billionoutoftheprogramfrom2010to2020tofinancehealthinsurancefor
theuninsured.Youdidnthavetolookupthefigurestohaveasensethatmanyoftheuninsuredwere
noncitizens(20percent),orthatevenmorewereforeign-born(27percent).IntheTeaPartysangrytown-hall
meetings,thisissueresonatedperhapsmoreloudlythananyothertheultimateexampleofredistributionfrom
adeservingustoanundeservingthem.
YetevenastheRepublicanMainStreetprotestedObamacare,itrejectedthehardeningideologicalorthodoxy
ofRepublicandonorsandelectedofficials.AsubstantialminorityofRepublicansalmost30percentsaidthey
wouldwelcomeheavytaxesonthewealthy,accordingtoGallup.WithinthepartythatmadePaulRyans
entitlement-slashingbudgetplanacenterpieceofpolicy,only21percentfavoredcutsinMedicareandonly17
percentwantedtoseespendingonSocialSecurityreduced,accordingtoPew.Lessthanathirdofordinary
Republicanssupportedapathwaytocitizenshipforillegalimmigrants(againaccordingtoPew)amajority,by
contrast,favoredstepped-updeportation.
Asaclass,bigRepublicandonorscouldnotseeanyofthis,orwouldnot.Soneitherdidthepoliticianswho
dependuponthem.Againstallevidence,bothgroupsinterpretedtheTeaPartyasamassmovementinfavorof
theagendaoftheWallStreetJournaleditorialpage.Oneofthemoredangerouspleasuresofgreatwealthis
thatyouneverhavetohearanyonetellyouthatyouarecompletelywrong.

JebBushonhiscampaignbusinRyeonNovember3.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
ItwasmittromneywhogotthefirstpostTeaPartypresidentialnomination,andheranonaplatformof
ConservatismClassic:taxcuts,budgetcuts,deregulation,freetradealllightlyseasonedwithsome
concessionstothebaseregardingstricterimmigrationenforcement.Therankandfiledidnotlikeit.Butthey
couldnotstopit.ThebasekeptelevatingnotRomneysintofirstplace,andeachrapidlyfailedorfizzled
Romney,supportedbyacumulativetotalof$139millioninprimaryfundsbyMarch2012,trundledon.
Romneyultimatelylostthepresidentialelection,ofcourse,tothesurpriseanddismayofapartyeliteconfident
ofvictoryuntiltheveryend.Onemighthaveexpectedthisshocktoforcearethink.TheRepublicanshadnow
lostfouroutofthepastsixpresidentialelections.AnotherelectionhadbeenwononlyintheElectoralCollege,
despitethelossofthepopularvote.Eventheirbestshowing,50.7percentofthevotein2004,representedthe
closestescapeofanyincumbentpresidentwhowonreelectionsincethefirstrecordedpopularvote.
Andyet,withinhoursofRomneysdefeat,Republicandonors,talkers,andofficialsconvergedonthemaximally
self-exculpatingexplanation.TheproblemhadnotbeentheplantophaseoutMedicareforpeopleyounger
than55.Orthelackofideasabouthowtoraisewages.Orthecommitmenttoendinghealth-insurance
coverageformillionsofworking-ageAmericans.Ortheanthemstowealthcreationandentrepreneurshipina
countryincreasinglyskepticalofboth.No,theproblemwastheoneelementofRomneysmessagetheyhad
neverlikedanyway:immigrationenforcement.
Ownersofcapitalassets,employersoflow-skilllaborers,andhighlycompensatedprofessionalstendtobenefit
economicallyfromthearrivalofimmigrants.Theyarebetterpositionedtoenjoytheattractiveculturalandsocial
resultsofmigration(more-interestingfood!)andtoprotectthemselvesagainsttheburdensomeimpacts(surges
innon-English-proficientpupilsinpublicschools).Apro-immigrationpolicyshiftwasonemoreassertionofclass
interestinapartyprogramalreadybrimfulofthem.
NobodyexpressedthepartyelitesconsensusviewmoreassuredlythanCharlesKrauthammer.Ignorethe
trimmers,hewroteinhisfirstpostelectioncolumn.Theresnoneedforradicalchange.Theotherpartythinks
itownsthedemographicfuturecounterthatinonestrokebyfixingtheLatinoproblem.Donot,however,
abandonthepartysphilosophicalanchorNoreinventionwhennoneisneeded.
Wevegottagetridoftheimmigrationissuealtogether,SeanHannitytoldhisradioaudiencethedayafterthe
election.Itssimpleformetofixit.Ithinkyoucontroltheborderfirst,youcreateapathwayforthosepeople
thatarehere,youdontsay,Yougottagohome.AndthatisapositionthatIveevolvedon.
Aco-ownerofFoxNewsKrauthammerandHannitysTVnetworkagreed:Musthavesweeping,generous
immigrationreform,tweetedRupertMurdochonNovember7,2012.Itwouldbeinhumanetosendthose
peopleback,tosend12millionpeopleoutofthiscountry,thecasinomogulandRepublicandonorSheldon
AdelsontoldTheWallStreetJournalinDecemberofthatyear.Wevegottofindaway,findaroute,forthose
peopletogetlegalcitizenship.TheRepublicanNationalCommitteemadeitallofficialinaMarch2013
postelectionreportsignedbypartyeminences.Thereportgenerallyavoidedpolicyrecommendations,witha
notableexception:Wemustembraceandchampioncomprehensiveimmigrationreform.Toadvancethe
cause,PaulSinger,oneofthemostopen-pocketedGOPdonors,madeasix-figurecontributiontotheNational
ImmigrationForumthatspring.
IfallofthissoundslikeaprescriptionforaJebBushcandidacyforpresidentwell,perhapsthatwasnotan
entirelyunintendedconsequence.
AlmostassoonasthenewCongressconvenedin2013,SenateRepublicansworkedtostrikeadealover
immigrationissues.AbipartisanGangofEight,includingFloridasambitiousyoungMarcoRubio,agreedona
planthatwouldcreateapathtocitizenshipformillionsofillegalimmigrantsandsubstantiallyincreaselegal-
immigrationlimitsforbothhigh-andlow-skilledworkers.Otherwise,thepartyyieldedonnothinganddoubled
downoneverything.NoU-turns.Nocompromises.

TedCruzataPracticalFederalismforumatSouthernNewHampshireUniversity,inHooksett,onOctober3.
(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Thenewstrategysoonprovedatotalandutterfailure.GeorgeW.Bushstaxcutsforhighearnersexpiredin
2013,andRepublicanscouldnotrenewthem.Thedrivetocutthedeficitendedinbudgetsequestration,whose
harshesteffectfellonthemilitary.TheGangofEightdealnevercametoavoteintheHouse.Allthewhile,
Republicansapprovalratingsslippedandslid.InsteadofholdingontotheirbaseandaddingHispanics,
Republicansalienatedtheirbaseinreturnfornogainsatall.Bymid-2015,amajorityofself-identified
Republicansdisapprovedoftheirpartyscongressionalleadershipanintensityofdisapprovalneverseenby
theRepublicanmajorityofthe1990snorbyDemocratsduringtheirtimeinthemajorityafterthe2006midterm
elections.
Infact,disapprovalhadflaredintoanoutrightrevoltoftheRepublicanbaseinthesummerof2014.House
MajorityLeaderEricCantor,theNo.2manintheRepublicancaucus,hademergedasaleaderofthenewline
onimmigration.UpforreelectioninVirginiasSeventhDistrict,Cantorwaschallengedthatyearbya
conservativeChristianprofessorofeconomics,DaveBrat.DuringObamasfirstterm,TeaPartyinsurgentshad
toppledincumbentsanddefeatedpartyfavoritesinprimariesfromDelawaretoNevada.Thosechallengeshad
endedbadlyinthegeneralelection,forthemostpart:TeaPartyRepublicanslostatleastfiveSenateseatsthat
mightplausiblyhavebeenwon.Partyleadersbelievedthelessonhadbeenlearnedandexpectedtheirvoters
tobemoretractableinfutureelections.
CantorslosstoBratjoltedHouseleaders.Immigrationreformslippedofftheiragenda.MarcoRubiorepudiated
hisowndeal.ButRepublicanelitesoutsideCongressdidnotgetthemessage.TheyrationalizedCantors
defeatasafreakevent,thesadconsequenceofanationallymindedpoliticiansneglectofhisdistrict.They
continuedtofillthecoffersofJebBushand,toalesserextent,RubioandScottWalker,allreliablepurveyorsof
ConservatismClassic.LastFebruary,threeofthepartysmostimportantmoneymenthefast-foodexecutive
AndrewPuzder,thehealth-careinvestorMikeFernandez,andthenationalfinancechairofMittRomneys2012
campaign,SpencerZwickpubliclyurgedtheGOPtopushaheadtowardmore-openimmigration.America
shouldbeadestinationforhardworkingimmigrantsfromallovertheworld,saidPuzder,anadvocateof
importingmorelow-skilledlaborerstomeettheneedsofhishigh-turnoverindustry.Zwicksaidthatany
presidentialcandidatewhowantedtobetakenseriouslyhadbetterbeinasimilarplacetoJebBushonthe
immigrationissue.
MaybeitwasnotagoodideaforJebBushsalliestodescribehisfund-raisingstrategyasshockandawe.
PerhapstheIraqWarreferencestirredpainfulmemories,evenamongRepublicans.Still,Bushsfund-raising
genuinelyinspiredawe.Inhisfinancialdisclosureforthesecondquarterof2015,Bushreportedraising$11.4
millionforhisformalcampaignandanother$103millionforhissuperPAC.Thesefundswereprovidedbya
relativelysmallnumberofverywealthypeople.OfBushspresidential-campaigndollars,only3percentarrived
inamountsof$200orless.Almost82percentarrivedinthemaximumincrementof$2,700.Nearly80percentof
Bushssuper-PACtakearrivedinincrementsof$25,000ormoreaboutaquarterofthehaulwasmadeupof
donationsof$1millionormore.
Yetseldominthehistoryoffund-raisinghassomuchboughtsolittle,sofleetingly.BetweenDecember2014
andSeptember2015,JebBushplungedfromfirstplaceintheRepublicanfieldtofifth.BetweenlateSeptember
andmid-October,hepurchased60percentofallpoliticalspotsairedinNewHampshire.Thatadbarrage
pushedhispollnumbersinthestatefromabout9percenttoabout8percent.

ChrisChristieatthe2015NewHampshireEducationSummitinLondonerryonAugust19.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
AsthegovernorofFlorida,Bushhadcuttaxesandbalancedbudgets.Hedchallengedunionsandchampioned
charterschools.Atthesametime,Bushpassionatelysupportedimmigrationliberalization.Thecentraleventin
hislifehistorywashisreinventionasanhonoraryLatinoAmericanwhenhemarriedaMexicanwoman,Columba
GarnicadeGallo.HespokeSpanishathome.HeconvertedtoCatholicism.HesoughthisfortunewithaCuban
Americanbusinesspartner.Inhismostquotablephrase,hedescribedillegalimmigrationasanactoflove.
BushsupdateofConservatismClassichadmadehimahitwiththepartysbigdonors.Hehadwonaccolades
fromKarlRove(thedeepestthinkeronourside)andArthurBrooks,thepresidentoftheAmericanEnterprise
Institute(atop-drawerintellect).YetwithinfiveweeksofhisformaldeclarationofcandidacyonJune15,Bushs
campaignhadbeenbrutallyrejectedbytheGOPrankandfile.
FromJupiterIsland,Florida,toGreenwich,ConnecticutfromDallassHighlandParktoSeaIsland,Georgia
fromFifthAvenueinManhattantoCaliforniasNewportBeach,thebaffledquestionresounded:Whatwent
wrong?
Big-dollarRepublicanfavoriteshaverunintotroublebefore,ofcourse.RudyGiulianiimplodedin200708Mitt
Romneys2012nominationwasknockedoffcourseasRepublicansworkedtheirwaythroughaseriesof
alternativefront-runners:RickPerry,HermanCain,NewtGingrich,andfinallyRickSantorum.ButGiulianilost
groundtotworivalsequallyacceptabletothedonorelite,ornearlyso:MittRomneyandJohnMcCain.In2011
12,thelongestanyofthenotRomneysremainedinfirstplacewassixweeks.Inbothcycles,resistancetothe
partyfavoritewasconcentratedamongsocialandreligiousconservatives.
Themutinyofthe2016electioncyclehasbeendifferent.Bythefallof2015,amajorityofRepublicansfavored
candidateswhohadneverbeenelectedtoanything:DonaldTrump,BenCarson,andCarlyFiorina.Fiorinas
campaignwasperhapsnotsounusual.AformerCEO,sheappealedtothesamebusiness-mindedRepublicans
whomighthavevotedforRomneyin2012.Carsonappealedtothesamereligiousconservativesthat
candidateslikeMikeHuckabeeandSantorumhadappealedtoinpriorpresidentialcycles.Whatwasnewand
astonishingwastheTrumpboom.Hejettisonedpartyorthodoxyonissuesrangingfromentitlementspendingto
foreignpolicy.Hescoffedattradeagreements.HesaidrudethingsaboutSheldonAdelsonandtheKoch
brothers.Hereviledthecampaigncontributionsofbigdonorshimselfincluded!asopenandblatantfavor-
buying.TrumpssurgewasadecisiverepudiationbymillionsofRepublicanvotersofthecollectivewisdomof
theirpartyelite.
WhenTrumpfirsteruptedintotheRepublicanraceinJune,hedidsowithamessageofgrimpessimism.We
got$18trillionindebt.WegotnothingbutproblemsWeredying.Weredying.WeneedmoneyWehave
losers.Wehavepeoplethatdonthaveit.Wehavepeoplethataremorallycorrupt.Wehavepeoplethatare
sellingthiscountrydownthedrainTheAmericandreamisdead.
ThatmessagedidnotresonatewiththosewhodriddentheS&P500fromlessthan900in2009tomorethan
2,000in2015.Butitfoundanaudienceallthesame.HalfofTrumpssupporterswithintheGOPhadstopped
theireducationatorbeforehigh-schoolgraduation,accordingtothepollingfirmYouGov.Only19percenthad
acollegeorpostcollegedegree.Thirty-eightpercentearnedlessthan$50,000.Only11percentearnedmore
than$100,000.
TrumpRepublicanswerenotideologicallymilitant.Just13percentsaidtheywereveryconservative19percent
describedthemselvesasmoderate.NorweretheyhighlyreligiousbyRepublicanstandards.

Left:CarlyFiorinaonafactorytouratRapidSheetMetalinNashuaonOctober5.Right:MikeHuckabeeat
formerMassachusettsSenatorScottBrownsBackyardNoBSBBQinRyeonOctober16.(MarkOstow/New
Hampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
WhatsetthemapartfromotherRepublicanswastheireconomicinsecurityandtheintensityoftheireconomic
nationalism.Sixty-threepercentofTrumpsupporterswishedtoendbirthrightcitizenshipforthechildrenof
illegalimmigrantsbornonU.S.soiladozenpointshigherthanthenormforallRepublicans.Morethanother
Republicans,TrumpsupportersdistrustedBarackObamaasalienanddangerous:Only21percent
acknowledgedthatthepresidentwasbornintheUnitedStates,accordingtoanAugustsurveybythe
Democratic-orientedpollingfirmPPP.Sixty-sixpercentbelievedthepresidentwasaMuslim.
Trumppromisedtoprotectthesevoterspensionsfromtheirownpartysausterity.WevegotSocialSecurity
thatsgoingtobedestroyedifsomebodylikemedoesntbringmoneyintothecountry.Alltheseotherpeople
wanttocutthehelloutofit.ImnotgoingtocutitatallImgoingtobringmoneyin,andweregoingtosaveit.
HepromisedtoprotecttheirchildrenfrombeingdrawnintoanotherwarintheMiddleEast,thistimeinSyria.If
weregoingtohaveWorldWarIII,hetoldTheWashingtonPostinOctober,itsnotgoingtobeoverSyria.As
forthepoliticiansthreateningtoshootdowntheRussianjetsflyingmissionsinSyria,Iwontevencallthem
hawks.Icallthemthefools.
HepromisedacampaignindependentoftheinfluencesofmoneythathadswayedsomanyRepublicanracesof
thepast.Iwilltellyouthatoursystemisbroken.Igavetomanypeople.Beforethis,beforetwomonthsago,I
wasabusinessman.Igivetoeverybody.Whentheycall,Igive.Andyouknowwhat?WhenIneedsomething
fromthem,twoyearslater,threeyearslater,Icallthem.Theyarethereforme.Andthatsabrokensystem.
HepromisedabovealltoprotecttheirwagesfrombeingundercutbyRepublicanimmigrationpolicy.

Left:RandPaulatameetandgreetatMaryAnnsDinerinWindhamonJuly26.Right:JohnKasichatatown-
hallmeetingintheVeteransofForeignWarsbuildinginDerryonAugust12.(MarkOstow/NewHampshire
magazine/TheAtlantic)
Itcannotlast,canit?Thecasinodoesnotalwayswin,StuartStevens,MittRomneysleadstrategistduringthe
2012campaign,quippedtomeinSeptember.Butthatsthewaytobet.Thecasinowonin2012,andwillvery
likelywinagainin2016.
Andyetalready,Trumphasdestroyedoneelite-favoredpresidentialcandidacy,ScottWalkers,andcrippledtwo
others,JebBushsandChrisChristies.Hehasthrownintodisarraythepartyspost-2012comebackstrategy,
andpulledintothecenterofnationaldiscussionissuesandconstituencieslongrelegatedtothemargins.
SomethinghaschangedinAmericanpoliticssincetheGreatRecession.Theoldslogansringhollow.The
insurgentcandidatesarelessabsurd,theorthodoxcandidatesmorevulnerable.TheGOPdonoreliteplanned
adynasticrestorationin2016.Instead,ittriggeredaninternalclasswar.
Thecontestforthepresidencyturnsonexternaleventsasmuchasormorethaninternalpartypolitics.
GeorgeW.Bushsteambelievedthatthelast-minuterevelationofa1976drunk-drivingarrestcosthimthe
popularvoteinthe2000election.JimmyCarterblamedhis1980defeatonthedebacleoftheattemptedrescue
ofAmericanhostagesinIran.Soanythingcanhappen.Butthatdoesnotmeananythingwillhappen.Barring
shocks,presidentialelectionsturnonthefundamentalsofeconomics,demography,andideology.
ThepuzzleforthemoniedleadersoftheRepublicanPartyis:Whatnow?Andwhatnextafterthat?Noneofthe
optionsfacingtheGOPeliteisentirelycongenial.Butthereappeartobefourpathstheelitecouldfollow,for
thiscampaignseasonandbeyond.Theyleadthepartyinverydifferentdirections.

Option1:DoubleDown
ThepremiseofthepastfewthousandwordsisthattheRepublicandonorelitefailedtoimposeitspreferred
candidateonanunwillingbasein2015forbigandimportantreasons.Butmaybethatpremiseiswrong.Maybe
JebBushhasjustbeenabadcandidatewitharadioactivelastname.Maybethesamemessageandplatform
wouldhaveworkedfineifespousedbyafresherandliveliercandidate.SuchisthetheoryofMarcoRubios
campaign.Orevenifthedonormessageandplatformhavetroublesmaybe$100millioninnegativeadscan
scorchanypotentialalternative,enablingthedonor-backedcandidatetowinbydefault.
AndifnotRubio,maybethecoredonormessagecouldstillworkifjoinedtoatrueoutsidercandidacy:Ben
Carsons,forexample.Carsonisoftenregardedasaprotestcandidate,butasTheWeeklyStandardsFred
BarnesenthusedbackinJanuary2015:OnethingnotindoubtisCarsonsconservatism.Hestherealdeal,an
economic,social,andforeignpolicyconservative.Carsonmaysaywackythings,buthedoesnotsay
heterodoxthings.
YeteveniftheRepublicandonorelitecankeepcontrolofthepartywhiledoublingdown,itsdoubtfulthatthe
tacticcanultimatelywinpresidentialelections.Thechangenothingbutimmigrationadvicewasaself-flattering
fantasyfromthestart.ImmigrationisnotthemainreasonRepublicanpresidentialcandidateslosesobadly
amongLatinoandAsianAmericanvoters,andneverwas:Latinovotersaremorelikelytolisteducationand
healthcareasissuesthatareextremelyimportanttothem.AmajorityofAsianAmericansarenon-Christianand
susceptibletoexclusionbysectarianreligiousthemes.
So

Option2:TacticalConcession
Perhapssomeconcessiontothedisgruntledbaseisneeded.ThatsthetheoryoftheCruzcampaignand
afteracoursecorrectionalsooftheChristiecampaign.Insteadof2013sConservatismClassicPlus
ImmigrationLiberalization,CruzandChristieareurgingConservatismClassicPlusImmigrationEnforcement.
True,Cruzscarefullyselectedwordsonimmigrationleaveopenthepossibilityofguest-workerprogramsor
otherpro-employerreformsafteraburstofborderenforcement.ButCruzandChristiehaveseenthereaction
toDonaldTrumpsmessage,andappeartoappreciatetheneedtoatleastseemtodosomethingtoredress
thegrievancesoftheRepublicanbase.
MuchofthedonorelitecouldlikelybeconvincedthatwhileJebBushsideaofimmigrationreformwouldbe
goodtohave,itisntamust-have.Justasthepartyelitereachedapactonabortionwithsocialconservativesin
the1980s,itcouldconcedetheimmigrationissuetoitsMainStreetbaseinthe2010s.
YetanarrowfocusonimmigrationpopulismaloneseemsinsufficienttoraiseRepublicanhopes.Trumpshrewdly
joinshisimmigrationpopulismtotradepopulism.OntheDemocraticside,BernieSanderssoppositiontoopen
bordersislogicallyconnectedtohishopesforaDemocraticSocialistfuture:HisadmiredDenmarkupholdshigh
laborstandardsalongwithsomeoftheworldstoughestimmigrationrules.Severedfromalargeragenda,
howeverasMittRomneytriedtosevertheissuein2012immigrationpopulismlooksatbestlikepandering,
andatworstlikeidentitypoliticsforwhitevoters.Inasocietythatisandalwayshasbeenmultiethnicand
polyglot,anynationalpartymustcompetemorebroadlythanthat.
Whichbringsusto

Option3:TrueReform
Admittedly,thismaybethemostuncongenialthoughtofthemall,butpartyelitescouldtrytoopenmore
ideologicalspacefortheeconomicinterestsofthemiddleclass.Makepeacewithuniversalhealth-insurance
coverage:MendObamacareratherthanendit.Cuttaxeslessatthetop,andusethemoneytodelivermore
benefitstoworkingfamiliesinthemiddle.Deviseimmigrationpolicytosupportwages,notundercutthem.Worry
moreaboutregulationsthatartificiallytransferwealthupward,andlessaboutregulationsthatconstrainfinancial
speculation.Takeseriouslyissuessuchasthelengthofcommutes,nursing-homecosts,andtheanticompetitive
practicesthatinflatecollegetuition.RememberthatRepublicanvoterscaremoreaboutaligninggovernment
withtheirvaluesofworkandfamilythantheycareaboutcuttingthesizeofgovernmentasanendinitself.
Recognizethatthegimmickofmobilizingthebasewithculture-waroutragesstoppedworkingatleastadecade
ago.

Left:RickSantorumatMurphysDinerinManchesteronJuly25.Center:LindseyGrahamattheMilfordLabor
DayparadeonSeptember7.Right:GeorgePatakiattheGraniteStateBrewersAssociationSummerfestat
ArmsPark,inManchester,onJuly25.(MarkOstow/NewHampshiremagazine/TheAtlantic)
Suchapartywouldcuthealth-carecostsbysqueezingproviders,notyoungbeneficiaries.Itwouldboost
productivitybyinvestinginhardinfrastructurebridges,airports,water-treatmentplants.ItwouldrestoreDwight
EisenhowertotheRepublicanpantheonalongsideRonaldReaganandemphasizethecenterincenter-right.
Toimaginethechangeistoseehowconvulsiveitwouldbeandhowunlikely.True,center-rightconservative
partiesbackedbybroadmultiethniccoalitionsofthemiddleclasshavegainedandexercisedpowerinother
English-speakingcountries,evenasRepublicanslostthepresidencyin2008and2012.Butthemost-influential
voicesinAmericanconservatismrejecttheexperienceoftheirforeigncounterpartsasweak,unprincipled,and
unnecessary.Inparliamentarydemocracy,winningorlosingisstarklybinary:Apartyeitherisinpoweroristhe
opposition.IntheAmericansystem,thatbinaryismuchblurrier.Republicanscan,ofcourse,exertsomecontrol
overgovernmentaslongastheyholdanyoneoftheHouse,Senate,orpresidency.
Whichbringsusfinallyto

Option4:ChangetheRulesoftheGame
Thefilibusterusedtobebad.Nowitsgood.SoFredThompson,thelateactorandformerRepublican
senator,jokinglytoldanaudienceonaNationalReviewcruiseshortlyafterBarackObamawonthepresidency
forthefirsttime.Howpartisansfeelaboutprocessissuesisnotoriouslyrelatedtowhatprocesswouldbenefit
thematanygivenmoment.LiberalslovedtheinterventionistSupremeCourtinthe1960sand70s,hateditin
the1990sand2000sandmayrotatetheiropinionagainifaPresidentHillaryClintoncantiltamajorityofthe
SupremeCourttheirway.ItsanoldstorythatmayfindanewtwistifandwhenRepublicansacknowledgethat
thepresidencymaybeattainableonlyaftertheymakepolicychangesthatareunacceptabletothepartyelite.
Therearemetrics,afterall,bywhichthepost-2009GOPappearstobeasupremelysuccessfulpoliticalparty.
Recently,RoryCooper,ofthecommunicationsfirmPurpleStrategies,talliedanetgaintotheRepublicansof69
seatsintheHouseofRepresentatives,13seatsintheSenate,900-plusseatsinstatelegislatures,and12
governorshipssinceObamatookoffice.Withthatkindofgriponstategovernment,inparticular,Republicans
arewellpositionedtowriteelectionandvotingrulesthatsustaintheirholdonthenationallegislature.The
presidentmaybeabletograntformerlyillegalimmigrantstherighttowork,buthecannotgrantthemtherightto
vote.Inthislight,insteadofrevisingRepublicanpoliciestostopfutureBarackObamasandHillaryClintons,
maybeitsnecessarytoreviseonlythepartyrulestostopfutureDonaldTrumpsfromconfrontingpartyelites
withtheirownunpopularity.
TheinauguralissueofTheWeeklyStandard,theconservativemagazinelaunchedin1995,depictedthen
SpeakeroftheHouseNewtGingrichswingingintoaction,asubmachinegunblazinginhislefthand,underthe
headlinePermanentOffense.Butthatwasthen.Maybethemorenaturalconditionofconservativepartiesis
permanentdefenseandwherebettertowagealong,grindingdefensivecampaignthaninCongressandthe
statehouses?Maybethepresidencyitselfshouldberegardedasoneofthosethingsthatisgoodtohavebut
notamust-have,especiallyifobtainingitrequiresuncomfortablechange.
Whathappenstoanelitewhosefollowerswithdrawtheirassent?Doesitself-examine?Ordoesittakerefugein
denial?Doesitchange?Ordoesittrytopreventchange?Doesitchallengeitselftobuildanewpolitical
majority?OrdoesitseizetheopportunitiestheAmericanpoliticalsystemofferstocompactandpurposeful
minorities?Whenitsoldanswersfail,willitthinkanew?Orwillitsimplyrepeatlouderthedogmasthatenthralled
supportersinthepast?Americanslovethecrushofcompetition,thehard-foughtstruggle,thelong-slogging
race.ButmuchmorethanthepunditsWhowillwin?,itisthesedeeperquestionsfromtheelectionof2016
thatwillshapethefutureofAmericanpolitics.
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/20/201512:01:41PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[YEHYPOCRITES!!!ORTHE"DUGINDIALECTIC"INACTION!!!][SOPTOTHERIGHT]WoodinWashT:WhyPutinrespects
Subject:
Trump[two'nationalists'],notObama.....[SOPTOTHELEFT][SEEJohnDDigest12-20]Putinsayswillnot'abandon'RussiansinUkraine...
Attachments: image001.png

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,December20,201511:39AM
Subject:Fwd:[YEHYPOCRITES!!!ORTHE"DUGINDIALECTIC"INACTION!!!][SOPTOTHERIGHT]WoodinWashT:WhyPutin
respectsTrump[two'nationalists'],notObama.....[SOPTOTHELEFT][SEEJohnDDigest12-20]Putinsayswillnot'abandon'Russians
inUkraine...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at2:30PM
Subject:[YEHYPOCRITES!!!ORTHE"DUGINDIALECTIC"INACTION!!!][SOPTOTHERIGHT]WoodinWashT:
WhyPutinrespectsTrump[two'nationalists'],notObama.....[SOPTOTHELEFT][SEEJohnDDigest12-20]Putinsayswill
not'abandon'RussiansinUkraineto[UA]nationalists......[ADD]PeterBonthe'DutchArtThief'Story&DutchEU-UA
Referendum[Nowitmakessense!!RUDezinformasanew'highscience'].....PLUSPutinReignbytheNumbers[ImageMissing
fromPreviousMemoinSomeBccSections]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JLG<........com>
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at1:18PM
Subject:WT/LTWood:WhyPutinrespectsTrump,notObama[ED:OHLOOK.....TwoNationalistsUnderstandEach
Other.....HowNice!!]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/dec/19/l-todd-wood-why-putin-respects-trump/

WhyPutinrespectsTrump,notObama
ByL.ToddWood--Saturday,December19,2015

AfterthefalloftheSovietUnion,theRussianpopulationfeltagreatloss.Thishistoricallypowerfulandproud
peoplehadspentthelastseventyyearsasuperpowernowthatwasgone,replacedwithshameandhardshipas
theireconomycollapsedandtheirgeopoliticalprioritieswerehumiliatedbytheWestaroundtheworld.Theworst
ofthesewastheconflictintheBalkans,astheethniccleansingagainstMuslimsinBosniabySerbswashalted
withNATObombingandtheSerbswereforcedintoapeaceagreement.Thelong-termSovietallysleaderswere
huntedbytheWorldCourtforwarcrimesandinRussiaseyes,unfairlyprosecuted.Russiansstillbringupthefact
thatNATOactedalone,withoutRussiasvoteintheU.N.SecurityCouncil.

ThisshamecontinuedforadecadewithRussianPresidentBorisYeltsinroutinelydrunkandfallingdownat
internationalevents.ThefirstChechenwarwasadevastatingdefeatfortheRussianarmedforcesandmoral
collapsed.

Then,enterstageright,VladimirPutin.

PutinusedthesecondconflictinChechnyatoconvincinglyputdowntherebellioninhisfirstbrushwithIslamic
violence.Hewasnotafraidtousebrutalitytowintheconflictandre-establishRussiancontrolovertheprimarily
Muslimarea.

AsPresidentforthenextdecadeandahalf,officiallyornot,Putinoversawavastincreaseintheaverage
Russiansstandardofliving.MillionsofRussianswerebroughtintothemiddleclass.Heisseenasastrong,
effectiveleaderwhostandsupforhiscountryandhispeople,hencehissky-highdomesticpopularityratings.The
commentIhearmostfrequentinMoscowis,Russiaisstrongagain.Noonewillmesswithusnow.

InTrump,Putinseesasimilarpersonashimselfinmanyways.HerelatestoTrumpsloveofcountry,tohisslogan
ofmakingAmericagreatagain.HeunderstandsTrumpsbrilliantassessmentoftheAmericanpeoples
frustrationattheUnitedStatesbeinghumiliatedaroundtheworld,economicallyandgeopolitically,itsborders
beingoverrunanditsleadershipcomplicitinanillegalimmigrantinvasion.utin,aswellastensofmillionsof
Americans,doesntunderstandPresidentObamasweakness,hisobvioushatredofwhathiscountrystandsfor
anditspastsuccess,andhisintentionalweakeningofAmericanpowerglobally.HedoesntrespectObama.Im
surePutinwonders,HowcouldAmericaelectsomeonelikethat?Twice?ThatdoesntstopPutinfromtaking
advantageofObamascharacteristicsontheworldstagehowever.

ThereforeitisonlynaturalthatPutinwouldgiveheartfeltadmirationforthegainsTrumphasmadeintheprimary
electionprocess.ItsasimplevoicingofrespectforTrumpscampaignstyleandpriorities.

TheproblemforTrumpisthatPutinisalsoadictatorwhohasnoproblemrubbingouttheopposition,nomatter
whethertheyliveinMoscoworinLondon.Putinisalsorumoredtobetherichestmanintheworld,withupwardsof
$200billionstashedaroundtheglobe,alongwithhisotheroligarchfriendsrunningthecountry.Obviouslybeing
presidentofRussiahasitsperks.

IfindithumorousthattheLeftisnowcallingTrumpadictatorwhenitistheirPresidentObamawhohasroutinely
abusedhispowerandthatofthefederalgovernment.WhetheritbeusingtheIRSandotheragenciestotargetthe
politicalopposition,stokingtheracialfiresforpoliticalgain,orstonewallingotherbranchesofgovernment
investigatingexecutivebranchcorruption,theObamaadministrationhastobethemostcorruptinhistory.Wewill
probablynotknowhowdeeptherabbitholegoesuntilheisoutofoffice.TheDemocratsleadingpresidential
candidateisunderinvestigationbytheFBIforgoodnesssake,soitdoesntlooklikeanotherDemocrat
administrationwillchangemuch.

TrumpsputtingAmericafirst,securingourborders,andgoingaftertheenemieswhowanttokillus,isallwelland
good.Americaneedsastrongleader.However,Trumphastobecarefultoseparatetheseinclinationsfromthe
corruptionanddictatorialtendenciesofVladimirPutin,orBarackObama.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at2:01PM
Subject:"Putinsays[he]willNOT'abandon'RussiansinUkraineto[Ukrainian]nationalists,"reuters,com,12/20
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Putinsays[he]willNOT'abandon'RussiansinUkraineto[Ukrainian]nationalists,"reuters,com,12/20

PutinwillnotabandonRussianslivinginsoutheastUkrainetoUkrainiannationalistsWeproceedfrom
onlyonething[Putinsaid],whichiswecannotjustabandonthepeoplewholiveinthesoutheastofthe
countrytonationaliststoEATthemupThereisnothingexcessiveinthatposition.Hedidnotelaborate.

And:PutinSALUTESRussiasintelligenceagenciesonnationalspiesday,theguardian.com,12/20/15

And:SevenprotestersholdanactionagainstnationalspiesdayoutsidetheFSBbuildingontheLubyanka
theyareimmediatelyarrested(seephoto):http://tvrain.ru/news/zaderzhali-400493/

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-putin-nationalists-idUSKBN0U30HG20151220

World|SunDec20,20159:17amEST

Related:WORLD

Putinsayswillnot'abandon'Russiansin
Ukrainetonationalists
MOSCOW

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinspeaksduringhisannualend-of-yearnewsconferenceinMoscow,Russia,December17,2015.

REUTERS/MAXIMZMEYEV

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinwillnotabandonRussianslivinginsoutheastUkrainetoUkrainiannationalists,
thestate-runRIAnewsagencyquotedhimassayinginadocumentaryduetobebroadcastlateronSunday.

MoscowsaysUkrainiannationalistsposeathreattoethnicRussiansandRussian-speakingUkrainiansinthe
region.Morethan9,000peoplehavebeenkilledinfightingineasternUkrainebetweenRussian-backed
separatistsandUkrainiantroopssinceApril2014.
"Weproceedfromonlyonething,whichiswecannotjustabandonthepeoplewholiveinthesoutheastofthe
countrytonationaliststoeatthemup,"Putinsaid.

"Thereisnothingexcessiveinthatposition."

Hedidnotelaborate.

PutinhasdeniedallegationsbyindependentobserversandmediathatRussianregulartroopsaretakingpartin
theconflict.However,onFridayheadmittedthatRussiadidhavepersonnelineasternUkrainewhowerecarrying
outcertainmilitarytasks.

AccordingtoRIA,PutinalsosaidRussiawouldcontinuetoimproveitsnucleararsenal,butaddedthatitwouldnot
wieldthe"nuclearbigstick".

(ReportingbyVladimirSoldatkinEditingbyAndrewBolton)

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at11:17AM
Subject:UkrainedefenseunitsuspectedincaseofstolenDutchartwork(UPDATED)
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

CleverRussiandezinformatworktopoisonthewellforUkraineintheEU.Hollandhasyettoapprove
theUA/EUAssociationAgreementvoteApril6Russianoligarchsandgangsters(apologiesforthe
redundancy)havelongbeenaprimemarketforstolenart,jewelry,etc.Professionaljumbleofgood
andbadnamesnowtiedinwiththestorybecomesaselfsmearingmixAlmostmakestheDutch
forgetaboutMH17ExpectthestorytobuildasApril6nears.

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/ukraine-politics/ukraine-defense-unit-suspected-in-case-of-stolen-dutch-art-
work-403880.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at7:49PM
Subject:3yearsofPutin-HowRussiahaschangedinthe3yearssincesanctionscameintopower
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,Walter
Derzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

PutinPostSanctions[SEEBELOW&ATTACHMENT]


From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/20/201510:34:52AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPonVlad'sRU,TrumpandVladwith
Subject:
SamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/New...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,December20,201510:11AM
Subject:Fwd:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPonVlad'sRU,
TrumpandVladwithSamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/New...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at12:33PM
Subject:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPon
Vlad'sRU,TrumpandVladwithSamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/NewEnemies
[Libya,Cyprus,Indiavs.Ukes,SyriaOpposition,TurksandNowSaudis]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

THEFIRSTCATEGORY........'AIR(WAVES)'WAR......IT'SALL'IMAGING,IMAGING,IMAGING'

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at6:45PM
Subject:PutinsVictoryLap|TheNationalInterest[ED:NIckGvosdev:ShillingforPutinAgain!!Theyletthisguyteachat
Annapolis????]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/putins-victory-lap-14670

FromSyriaandUkrainetoDonaldTrump,theRussianpresidentassesses2015inamarathonpressconference.

Nikolas K. Gvosdev

December18,2015

inShare6

PresidentVladimirPutinengagedinhistraditionalend-of-yearmarathonpressconferencethisweekwithsome1,300
journalistsattendinginMoscow.Asishiswont,PutinusedtheeventtoreassureRussiansthatdespitethehardshipsofthe
lastyear,theeconomyhasturnedacorner,pensionerswillbetakencareof,subsidieswillbemadeavailabletoRussian
farmersandlow-incomefamilieswillbeshieldedfromthecontinuingriseinutilitycosts.Itispartofhisefforttorenew
Russia'straditionalsocialcontract:theleadershipbeinggivenarelativelyfreemandatetorunthecountryinreturnfor
guaranteeingsocialstabilityandareasonablemodicumofprosperity.Heissignalingthathecancontinuetofulfillhisendof
thebargaindespitethehitstakenbytheRussianeconomyduetosanctionsandfallingenergyprices.

Butthisyear'spresseventwasalsoimportantforwhattheRussianleaderhadtosayaboutforeignpolicy.Whatissignificant
isthatPutin'scommentscomeintheaftermathoftwoverysignificantdevelopments.First,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohn
KerrytraveledtoMoscow,puttingthefinalnailsinthecoffinoftheObamaadministration'sinsistencethatRussiaremains
"isolated"becauseofitsactionsinUkraineandSyria.Inthecourseofthelastyear,Putinhassuccessfullyre-insertedhimself
asanindispensablefigureinglobalpoliticsandRussiaasapowerwhichcannotbeignoredorsidelined.Moreover,Kerry
madecommentswhichsuggestthatU.S.policyonSyria,whichforthepastfouryearshasbeencharacterizedbyanon-
negotiabledemandthatBasharal-Assad"mustgo,"isopenformodification.KerrystatedthatU.S.goalsinSyriadonot
include"regimechange"perseand,echoinglanguageusedbytheRussiansinthepast,notedthatSyriansmustdecidetheir
ownfuturewhilestillincludingthecaveatthattheUnitedStatesdoesnotbelievethatAssadhasanyfutureinapost-
conflictSyria.AndbeforeKerryhadarrived,theKremlinwasalsogratifiedbythedecisionofItalianPrimeMinisterMatteo
RenzitoblocktheautomaticextensionofEUsanctionsagainstRussia,forcingthemtobeplacedontheagendaofEU
leaders.Whilethesanctionsarelikelytoberenewedthistime,Renzi'sactionssignaledthatanumberofEuropeanstatesare
growingtiredofthesanctionsandarelookingforwaystomodifyorremovesanctionsaltogetherin2016.

Thus,inhisremarks,PutinofferedseveralolivebranchestotheWest,includingacontinuedsearchforcooperationinthe
fightagainstterroristorganizationsintheMiddleEastwhichtheKremlinviewsasitsbestoptionforitsrehabilitationafter
theUkrainecrisisandthefirst(iflimited)acknowledgmentsthatthereareRussiansamongtheseparatistsinEastern
Ukraine,butstillfallingshortofadmittingaformal,officialmilitarypresenceonUkrainiansoil.Moreover,theattemptto
shiftsomeoftheblamefordelaysandproblemsinimplementingtheMinsk-2ceasefireplantotheUkrainiansideismeantto
capitalizeongrowingsignsofUkrainefatigueinWesterncapitalswiththeapparentslowpaceofreforms.Readingbetween
thelines,PutinseemstobesignalingawillingnesstofindacompromiseonUkrainethattheWestcanlivewith,whiletrying
tocreatethebasisforclosercooperationoverSyriaifthestickyquestionofAssad'simmediatefuturecanbetakenoffthe
table.ThatMoscowmightbeabletolivewithoutAssadinpoweroverthelongtermwashintedatincommentsthatthe
scaleandscopeoftheRussianmilitaryinterventioninSyria,andtheuseofnavalassetsandairpowerbasedonRussiansoil,
showsthatRussiadoesnotnecessarilyneedtheSyrianfacilitiesinordertobeabletoprojectpowerintheregion.

TheverypublicdigatTurkeyandthesuggestionthattherecentshoot-downofaRussianplanebyTurkishaircraftwasan
attemptbyAnkaratocurryfavorwiththeUnitedStatespointstoPutin'sapparentwillingnesstothrowawayallofthe
workthathasbeendonetobuilduptheRussia-Turkeyrelationshipoverthelastseveralyears.Thepersonalrelationship
betweenPutinandRecepTayyipErdogan,Turkey'spresident,seemsrupturedbeyondrepairthisdespiteErdogan's
previouswarmtieswiththeRussianleader(includingErdogansattendanceatthe2014SochiWinterOlympicGames)anda
sidelinesummitattheG-20inAntalyalastmonththatseemedtopresageawarminginties.Thisnewhostilitysuggestsnot
onlythedeeppersonalaffrontPutinfeelsfortheshoot-down,butanassessmentthatbetweentheapparentKerrybackdown
onAssad,whomTurkeywantstoseego,andthemovingforwardoftheexpansionoftheNordStreampipeline,which
removestheeconomicandsecurityrationalefortheTurkishStream,RussiacanaffordtotakeaharderlinewithAnkara.

Ofcourse,thecommentswhichhavedrawnthemostattentionarePutin'sendorsementofthecandidacyofDonaldTrump.
WhilepiouslyproclaimingthatRussiadoesnotseektointerveneinAmericandomesticpolitics,andwouldfindawayto
workwithanyonewhoiselectednextyear,Putindescribedthereal-estatemogulandcurrentRepublicanfront-runnerasan
"outstandingman"and"unquestionablytalented"amarkedchangefromotherleaderswhohavebeenhighlycriticaland
disparagingofTrump.(Trumprespondedpositivelytothoseremarksseveralhourslater,citingPutinasarespectedworld
leaderthathecandobusinesswith.)

IsPutinhavingfunwiththeU.S.mediabyall-but-endorsingTrumpasthe"absoluteleader"inthepollsthatthisisatrolling
effortofextraordinarymagnitudebysuggestingthatwhattheUnitedStatesneedsisaPutin-styleadministrationinoffice?Is
thisPutin'seffortstostrikebackatbeingtheleading"badguy"thatmostotherU.S.presidentialcandidateshaveidentified
andpromisedtocontain,slapdownorputinhisplace?Orishesuggestingthatatrue"reset"canonlyoccurwithaDonald
TrumpintheOvalOffice?

WhetherornotPutinbelieves(orisbeingfedanalysis)thatTrumpcouldwinthepresidency,Putin'spraiseofTrumpreflects
hiscontemptofmuchoftheU.S.politicalestablishment.HehasdealtwithtwoU.S.presidentswhopromisedfundamental
changesintheU.S.-Russiarelationshipbutwho,fromhisperspective,wereunwillingtoinvestseriouspoliticalcapitaland
risktheireofestablishedinterestgroupstomakerealchangesandwhoinsteadwerealwaystryingtosquarethecircle
betweenengagingRussiaandcontinuingtosupporttheexpansionofEuro-Atlanticinstitutionseastward.ThepraiseofTrump
signalsPutin'sinterestinfindingWesternleaderswhowillcometothetabletobargainingoodnineteenth-centurystyle,
tradingspheresofinfluenceforcooperation.Italsosuggeststhathedoesnottaketherestofthepresidentialfieldboth
DemocratsandRepublicansallthatseriously.

ThejokemaybeonPutinifhisgamblesfailandtheeconomyworsens.Bythetimeofnextyear'sgalaevent,we'llsee
whetherhispredictionofaTrumpvictoryhasbeenborneoutbyeventsandwhetherwhoeverwillsucceedBarackObama
intheWhiteHousewillconsiderengagingPutinalongtheTrumpline.

NikolasGvosdevisacontributingeditoratTheNationalInterestandco-authorofRussianForeignPolicy:Vectors,Sectors
andInterests(CQPress,2013).Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.

Image:WikimediaCommons/Kremlin.ru.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at7:49PM
Subject:3yearsofPutin-HowRussiahaschangedinthe3yearssincesanctionscameintopower[ED:TheReality......NumbersDon't
Lie]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

PutinPostSanctions

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:36PM
Subject:UnderstandingmodernRussia?WhyEuropeanleadersshouldreadPeterPomerantsev[ED:GettingPutinRight]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

UnderstandingmodernRussia?WhyEuropeanleadersshould
readPeterPomerantsev
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/understanding_modern_russia_why_european_leaders_should_read_peter_pomerant#.VnWV-
5DQ-5I.twitter

VladislavSurkov,thedemiurgeoftheKremlin,surprisesusallbyenteringfrombehindtheuniversityauditorium,beforetakingthestageinfrontofan
audiencepackedwithdoctoratestudents,professors,journalistsandpoliticians.Heiswearingawhitet-shirtandleatherjacket,fallinghalfway
betweenJoyDivisionandacommissarfromthe30s.Iamtheauthor,oroneoftheauthors,ofthenewRussiansystem.MyportfolioattheKremlin
andingovernmenthasincludedideology,media,politicalparties,religion,modernisation,innovation,foreignrelations,and...herehepausesand
smilesmodernart.Hedecidesnotmakeaspeech,butinsteadinvitestheaudiencetoposequestionsandhaveanopendiscussionwithhim.After
thefirstquestion,hetalksforalmost45minutes,leavinghardlyanytimeforothers.Itsademonstrationofhispoliticalsysteminminiature:democratic
rhetoricandundemocraticintent.

InNothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:AdventuresinModernRussia,abrilliantandattimesappallingportrayaloftodaysRussianelites,
PeterPomerantsevintroducesSurkov.Oftenlurkingintheshadows,SurkovhascontributedtothePutingovernmentsconsolidationofpowerthrough
Hollywood-stylemediastuntsandthroughwhatinthepost-Sovietspaceisknownaspoliticaltechnology.

Showbiz,politicaltechnologyandoldfashionedauthoritarianism

ThroughhisownforayintothemedialandscapeofRussia,PomerantsevexplainshowthenewKremlin,havinggainedcontroloftelevisionnetworks,
hasshowngreatskillincombiningWestern-styleentertainmentwithauthoritarianismandmoreorlesssubtlepropaganda.ThemistakeoftheTVinthe
USSR-beingboringisnowavoidedatallcosts.Alwayscentrestage,thefigureofthepresidentisinconstantmetamorphosis,likeanactor.Putin
switchesbetweentherolesofsoldier,lover,bare-chestedhunter,businessman,spy,tsar,superman.Surkovwouldmeetonaweeklybasiswiththe
directorsofthemainchannels,decidingwhotoattackandwhotodefendwhichpoliticalleaderwouldenjoyairtimeandwhowouldnot.Thescreen
relentlesslydepictsthepresidentasthedoyenofstabilityandefficiencyincontrasttothepresidentialchaosofthe90s,andrepeatedlyputsout
messagesaboutthemandtheenemy,meaningoppositionleaders,liberals,journalists,theWest,theUnitedStatesandchurki(apejorativeterm
forpeoplefromtheCaucusesandCentralAsia,thatassociatesthemwithterrorismandblackwidows).Inaway,thisisnotdissimilartotherhetoric
pumpedoutbyFoxNewsandotherchannels,whichthroughoutthenever-endingWaronTerrorhavedisseminatedthelibellousopinionsofDonald
Trumpandotherslikehim-dressingupxenophobia,defamationandthestigmatisationofminoritiesasnormality.

Pomerantsevdescribeshowthispublicdiscourse,alongwiththeKremlinsgrowingparanoiaregardingfifthcolumns,gotfiercerastheneedtocreate
panicandfearbecamegreater,turningoffrationality.Inparallel,theKremlininvestedintheinfrastructuretodisseminateitsownreadingsof
internationalrelations,presentedasRussiasview,throughformatsandplatformswhichareWesterninappearance,suchasRussiaToday.

Politicaltechnologyisameansofappropriatingpracticallyallformsofpoliticaldiscoursepossible,theirideologiesandmovements,givingthem
visibilityorridiculinganddemonisingthem,accordingtothecircumstances.PeoplelikeSurkovmayactivelysupportorcreateNGOs,partiesand
liberalleadersseeminglycriticaloftheKremlin(aslongasthatcriticismislimited),andthenext,putthemunderfirefromultranationalistforcesand
orthodoxfundamentalists.Oldertraditionsofco-optingforcesthatopposetheregimeinpower,presentingthemasalivethreat,areblendedwith
twenty-firstcenturymediatechnologyandPRstrategies-somethingwhichhasworkedwellinRussianpropagandaaboutUkrainesNazis.The
dissentingvoicesincivilsocietyandpoliticalforcesarestigmatised,notonlyasanti-Russianandtraitors,but,inPomerantsevswords,asMuscovite
hipstersoutoftouchwithordinaryRussians,concernedonlybymarginalissuessuchasfreedomsorLGBTrights.

Totopthisoff,mediacampaignsandtheuseofpoliticaltechnologyarecombinedwithtraditionalrepressiveaction,reminiscentofpasttimes.Hence,
decisionstoclassifycivilsocietyorganisationsasundesirableorforeignagents,restrictingtheiractivitiestoaminimumshamtrials,andthe
rejectionofthejurisdictionoftheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights.

ButthenoveltyofthisbrandofauthoritarianismistocombinesheerrepressionwithasubtleuseofmodernWesternstrategiesofmediaandPRforthe
controlofthemasses.Realityisdeconstructedandanillusioncreatedofapluralpublicspace-aspacethatisalsoattractiveforpeopleoutside
Russia,scepticaltowardstheEU,WashingtonandtheWesteventhoughthisisfarfromthecase.

Russlandverstehersgetitwrong:thetheatreofabsurdandzomboyashschiks

InourpartofEuropeandincountriessuchasFrance,Spain,GermanyorItaly,acommonmessageinanypoliticaldebateaboutRussia,Ukraineor
thepost-SovietspaceingeneralistheimportanceofunderstandingRussiaandtheRussianmentality.Ittendstobeaccompaniedwithlearned
nodstotheSlavicworld,thetsars,theSovietUnionandreferencestoDostoyevskyandTolstoy.Inthisvein,theRusslandversteherstendtocross
thelinebetweenexplainingeventssuchastheannexationofCrimea,ortherestrictionsonfreedominRussia,andjustifyingthem.

ClassicslikeDostoyevskyorTolstoycanbeusefultounderstandtheculturalsubstrataofmanyRussiansandtheirtakeonexistence.Likewise,
RussianforeignpolicyinthetsaristperiodandtheUSSRcanshedsomelightontodaysgeopoliticaltensionsandtheRussianperspectiveinits
backyard.ButneitherhistorynorgeopoliticsalonecanexplaintodaysRussia.ThesystemdescribedbyPomerantsevmightbeevenmoreusefulfor
ourpoliticaldecision-makerswhenitcomestounderstandingcontemporaryRussiaand,especially,thenatureofitselitesandthepowercirclein
question.
AsPomerantsevargues,itisdifficulttoappreciatethebrutalimpactthattheconsecutivedestructionofvariouspoliticalmodelsfromtheUSSR
toperestroikaorneoliberalismhasonasocietyanditselites.TodaysRussianelitesoftencombinenihilism,aNietzschian
characterofbermenschabovemoralcodes,andextremematerialism.ProminentproKremlinpoliticiansvituperateagainsttheWestfromthe
Duma,sometimesthreateninganucleararmageddonorridiculingGayeuropa,whilesendingtheirchildrentoOxbridgeorCostaBrava.Concepts
likeMotherRussiaandtheRussianworld(russkiymir)doubtlessservetomobilisethegeneralpopulationnowandthen,whoasmany
Westerners-areneedfulofcollectivelandmarksintimesofuncertainty,penuryandmoralvacuum.Buttheseideasmostlyoperateasinstrumentsof
powerwieldedbyadominantclassinordertodirectattentionawayfrommoreimmediateproblemsandbasicgovernanceshortcomings.

Deepdown,thereisanongoingerosionofmorality,somethingwhichnosocietyisimmunefrom,whetherduetothelegaciesoftotalitarianismand
conflict,thepoisonousrhetoricofleaders,orendemicimpunity.AcasecanalsobemadeagainstthatUSintoxicatedbyapoliticsoffearwhich
justifiestortureandvotesinCongressagainsttheacceptanceofSyrianrefugees.OrthinkofthesurrealbubbleofshrinkingcosmopolitanTelAviv,
wherehandsomeyouthsworkingoutbythebeachjustafewmilesfromthedramaticrealityofoccupationandviolentdeath.ThisRussiaofspinand
showbizmakesapoliticalsystemandwayoflifeforitsrulersoutofthetheatreofthelieandtheabsurd(liketheweatherforecastforbombingSyria).
Itprefersdevotedzomboyashchiks(zombies)topoliticallyactivecitizens.

AnotherRussia?

Baraviolentrevolutionarypoliticalchange(and,probably,supportfromwithinthesystem,asinothercases),itisperhapsutopicthinkingtoconceive
ofanypossibilityofrevertingtheKremlinssystemsandprocessesofcollectiveregressionwhetherbywell-intentionedexternalactorsorcommitted
localactivists.Atleastfromoutsideofthecircleofpowerwhichconstructsrealityandshapesthesocialorder.

Yet,attimes,theredoesexistanotherRussia,which,whenitmanagestomakeitsvoiceheard,harshlyrefutesmanyargumentsofthe
RusslandverstehersandPutinsupporters.ThisistheRussiaofyoungleaderssuchasIlyaYashin,criticalofthewarinUkraine,whoseRPR-
PARNASpartysufferedallkindsofboycottsinSeptembersregionalelections.ItcertainlywastheRussiaofBorisNemtsovorAnnaPolitkovskaya.
OreventheRussiaofthosethousandsofMoscowcitizenswhotooktothestreetsinlate2011,creatinghugeanxietyinthehallsofpower.

TheRussianquestionandthecountrysassimilationintheEuro-AtlanticspacewillcontinuewithorwithoutPutin.ButthefutureofRussiaasitis
shouldbeaconcernforall.WithoutwishingtolapseintoromanticidealismorManicheanvisions,thisotherRussiaor,rather,otherRussiaswould
probablybeclosertoEurope,pronetocooperationandfriendlierrelationswiththeneighbours.Thesadfacttodayisthatalargepartofthatother
Russiachoosesexile.

Andyetmaybebecauseofagenerationalfactororgenuinerespectforthosedissentingvoicesagainstahegemonicmodel(whereprotestingmeans
riskingitall)-itisinevitabletofeelmoreempathytowardsPussyRiot,PetrPavlensky,theiconoclastartist,orNGOslikeMemorial,thanblind
nostalgiaaboutanidealisedRussia(nottomentionanequallyidealisedUSSR)whichnolongerexists.

IfthatotherRussiaendsupdisappearingandthosevoicesarelefttowither,thefutureofthisOrwellianRussiawheretheworldisturnedonitshead,
willnotendearitsneighboursorEurope.Butaboveallitdoesnotbodewellatallforthepeoplewhoactuallylivethere.

*TranslationbyJamesBadcock.

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/understanding_modern_russia_why_european_leaders_should_read_peter_pomerant#.VnWV-5DQ-5I.twitter

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:10PM
Subject:ForMr.TrumpandMr.Putin,abondofpower-hungriness,vulgarityandcynicism
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

ForMr.TrumpandMr.Putin,abondofpowerhungriness,vulgarityandcynicism

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/formrtrumpandmrputinabondofpowerhungrinessvulgarityand
cynicism/2015/12/19/7c4401b0a5b511e5b53d972e2751f433_story.html

TheinsidetrackonWashingtonpolitics.

FORDONALDTrump,nothingmeritsrespectmorethanhighpollnumbers,includinghisown,whichtheRepublicanpresidentialhopeful
equateswithstrength,intelligenceandsuccess.InMr.Trumpsworldview,thatsimplisticformulationisreasonalonetoaccorddeference
andesteemtoVladimirPutinnevermindthattheRussianpresidentisanautocratwhosepopularityathomerestsinnosmallmeasure
onhavingsilencedcriticswhoseviews,weretheyallowedapublicairing,mightputacrimpinhisapprovalrating.

Forhispart,Mr.Putin,whosecynicismandsnarlingvulgarityaremirroredinMr.Trumpsownpoliticaloratory,seesintheU.S.mogula
manafterhisownheart.FortheRussianpresident,whooncerecommendedthatajournalistgetcircumcised,Mr.Trumpssuggestionthat
FoxNewssMegynKellywasmenstruatingwhenshechallengedhimmusthaveseemedabonmot,ifalittletoosubtlefortheRussians
taste.DittoMr.Trumpsindulgenceandoutrightapprovalofhissupportersuseofviolence.

TheirmutualadmirationsocietygotapublicairingthisweekwhentheRussianleaderconfessedhisadmirationforMr.Trump(avery
brightandtalentedmanandanabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace)andMr.Trumpimmediatelyreturnedthefavor,sayinghewas
greatlyhonoredbyMr.Putinspraise.

SowhatifMr.PutinhasorderedthekillingofjournalistsandtheinvasionofCrimea,Mr.TrumpsaidFriday,inresponsetoaquestionfrom
MSNBCsJoeScarborough,onMorningJoe.Hesrunninghiscountry,andatleasthesaleader,saidMr.Trump.Unlikewhatwehave
inthiscountry.

Whatthetwomenshare,andrecognizeineachother,goesbeyondstrongpollingnumbers,anaffinityforincendiarylanguageanda
contemptforthose(withPresidentObamaleadingthelist)theyregardasweak.Whatreallyattractsthemisacommonworldviewin
whichmoneytalksanddemocraticnormsareforsuckers.

MuchasMr.Putinhasmuzzledfreeexpressioninthemedia,marginalizedpoliticalopponentsandscrappedcontestedelections,
Mr.TrumphasblithelyendorsedshuttingdownpartsoftheInternet,praisedPresidentFranklinD.RooseveltforinterningJapanese
AmericansduringWorldWarIIandopenlycontemplatedregisteringMuslimsinAmerica.

WhereMr.Putinseescorruptionasthenorm,Mr.Trumpsimilarlyregardspublicserviceasamarketplaceinwhichanyoneandeveryone
canbebought.Igivetoeverybody,Mr.TrumptoldaNewHampshireaudienceinthesummer.TheydowhateverIwant.Itstrue.

Granted,Mr.Trump,hisrhetoricnotwithstanding,ishardlyinMr.Putinsleagueasavicioustyrant.Mr.Trumpscriticsaresubjectedonly
tothevenomofhisinsults;Mr.Putinshaveawayofendingupinprison,orshottodeathinthestreet.

ButbelievetheAmericantycoonwhenhesaysthatMr.Putinisamanwithwhomhewouldgetalong,andwho,intermsof
leadership,hesgettinganA.Thefeelingismutual,andrevealing.

Readmoreaboutthistopic:

DavidIgnatius:IsDonaldTrumpanAmericanPutin?

GeorgeF.Will:TrumpsimmigrationplancouldspelldoomfortheGOP

EugeneRobinson:TheGOPsscariestcandidate

SECOND'VLAD'CATEGORY:"HELPINGFRIENDS[SuddenlyforwardtoLibyaandCyprusaswellasbackto
India].....HOUNDINGENEMIES[Ukrainians,theSyrianOpposition,theTurksandsoontheSaudis]'.....ONE
HECKOFAGUY!!!"
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at9:26PM
Subject:LibyaSeeksRussia'sHelpinBattlingTerrorism(OhBOYIsensedthiswascoming!!!-WD)
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

LibyaSeeksRussiasHelpinBattlingTerrorism
11:5119.12.2015
http://sputniknews.com/world/20151219/1032011120/libya-russia-help-terrorism
.html

TheLibyanArmedForces'CommanderBrigadierGeneralKhalifaHafterhasvoicedhiscountry'sreadiness
tocooperatewithRussiainfightingterrorism,accordingtotheIraniannewsagencyFARS.

"WewelcomesupportfromRussiainfightingterrorism,"theagencyquotesHafterastellingreportersafte
hismeetingwithUnitedNationsSupportMissioninLibya(UNSMIL)ChiefMartinKoblerinthecityofMarj,
NortheasternLibya.
WillSyriaRepeattheFateofLibya,WhichNoLongerExists?ThemilitaryleaderassuredthatifRussia
proposesaplanforfightingterrorisminLibya,TripoliwillcooperatewithMoscow,addingthatRussians

areseriousin[the]fightagainstterrorists.

Thecountry'scapitalTripoli,iscontrolledbyapoliticalfaction,knownastheGeneralNationalCongress,
whichwassetupafteranarmedgroupcalledLibyaDawnseizedthecapital,Tripoli,lastsummer.

OnThursday,rivalLibyanpoliticianssignedadealonaunitygovernmentdespiteoppositiononbothsides,
inwhattheUnitedNationsdescribedasa"firststep"towardsendingthecrisis.

Worldpowershaveurgedthewarringfactionstobreakapoliticaldeadlockthathasallowedjihadistsand
people-smugglerstoflourish.Meanwhile,thejihadistgroupDaesh(alsoknownasISIL/ISIS)hasincreasedits
presenceintheLibyanMediterraneancityofSirte,havingapparentlyestablisheditsnewbasethere,whereit
cangenerateoilrevenueandplanterrorattacks.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JACKE
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at10:41AM
Subject:SyriagivesRFtheEasternMedCyprusopensuptheWesternMedtoRU
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://cyprus-mail.com/2015/12/20/poll-majority-would-favour-granting-military-facilities-to-russia/

Home

Cyprus

Poll:majoritywouldfavourgrantingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussia(Update:
addsEDEKvindication)
DECEMBER20TH,2015CYPRUS39COMMENTS
CYPRUS

ARussianSukhoiSu-24fighterjettakesofffromtheHmeymimairbasenearLatakia,Syria,

RELATEDPOST...

Chineseminister'svisitaimstoboosttieswithCyprus

CypruspositionsitselfonEU-Turkeytalks

SuspectedRussianwarplaneskillscoresinSyriancity-rescueworkers

AlmostthreeoutoffourCypriotswouldwelcometheprovisionofmilitaryfacilitiestoRussiabyCyprus,accordingtoapollconductedforSimerini
newspaperandpublishedonSunday.

OverhalfofthosepolledislandwideonDecember16and17,saidthegovernmentshouldseekclosertieswithMoscow.

TheissueofofferingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussiacameupearlierthismonthwhentheRussianambassadorsaidthematterwasbeingdiscussedby
NicosiaandMoscowbutthiswaslaterdeniedbytheforeignministriesofbothcountries.Russiaistobeofferedhumanitarianandrefuellingfacilities
suchasthosealreadygiventoFranceandGermany.

AccordingtotheSimerinipoll,carriedoutbytheUniversityofNicosia,42percentsaidthatCyprusshouldhaveequallycloserelationswiththeUS
andwithRussia.
SevenoutoftenCypriotswereopentoofferingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussianforcesfightingagainstterrorism,with37percentgoingasfarassaying
Cyprusshouldgivethemabase.

ThreeoutoffivesaidtheywouldfeelsaferiftherewasaRussianmilitarypresenceontheisland.Twooutoffivesaidtheyfeellesssafeinrecent
monthssinceBritainbeganbombingtheIslamicStateinSyriafromitsRAFbaseinCyprus.

SocialistEDEK,whichhasbeenpushingthegovernment,alongwiththeCitizensAlliancetograntRussiamilitaryfacilities,saidonSundaythepoll
hadvindicateditspositionontheissue.InthefightagainstterrorismandtheillegalIslamicstateofISISwemustofferthesamemilitaryfacilitiesasan
allyofFranceandofRussia,thepartysaid.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at9:05PM
Subject:India-Russiaeyenuclear,helicopterdeals[HeadingbacktooldColdWarAlignments?India-RU????AgainsttheWest?]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

India-Russiaeyenuclear,helicopterdeals

Dec18,2015,10.33PM|Source:Reuters

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/current-affairs/india-russia-eye-nuclear-helicopter-deals_4654261.html

PrimeMinisterNarendraModiisexpectedtopromotedealsforRussiannuclearreactorsandmilitaryhelicoptersworthbillionsofdollarsonatripto
Moscownextweek,attractedbypromisestotransfertechnologythatWesternnationshavebeenslowtomake.

PrimeMinisterNarendraModiisexpectedtopromotedealsforRussiannuclearreactorsandmilitaryhelicoptersworthbillionsofdollarsonatripto
Moscownextweek,attractedbypromisestotransfertechnologythatWesternnationshavebeenslowtomake.

RussiaandIndiawillmanufacture200Kamov-226Thelicoptersinajointventure,aRussianandanIndiangovernmentofficialsaid,inthefirstbigstep
forModi'scampaigntobuildadomesticindustrialbaseandreducethemilitary'sdependenceonexpensiveimports.

Modi,whoheadsforMoscowonDec.23,willalsoofferRussiaasiteinAndhraPradeshtobuildsixnuclearreactorsof1,200megawatts(MW)
each,thesamesourcesadded.

ThatisinadditiontothesixRussiaisconstructinginneighbouringTamilNadu,saidtheofficials,whospokeonconditionofanonymitybecausethey
werenotauthorisedtospeaktothepress.

NewDelhihasturnedtoRussiaasU.S.firmGeneralElectricandWestinghouse,aU.S.-basedunitofJapan'sToshiba,arestillweighinganentryinto
India'snuclearenergysectorbecauseofalawthatmakesreactorsuppliersliableincaseofanaccident.

Modi's"Make-in-India"pushforamilitarythathasbeentheworld'sbiggestimporterforthelastfouryearshasalsomadelittleheadway,with
negotiationsstalledoverissuesincludingtechnologytransferandthelocalassemblyofequipment.

ForRussia,Indiaoffersanalternative,fast-growingoutletforitsexportsassanctionsimposedbytheWestsqueezetheeconomy.

"Whileothersaremakingpromises,RussiaismovingforwardwiththeMake-in-Indiaprogramme,"theRussiangovernmentsourcesaid.

RUSSIALETDOMINANCESLIP

Moscow,whichhasmaintainedclosetieswithIndiasincetheColdWar,hasinrecentyearsslippedbehindtheUnitedStatesandIsraelinsecuring
ordersintheIndiandefencemarket,estimatedtobeworth$130billionoverthenextsevenyears.

NowRussianPresidentVladimirPutinisbankingonIndia'sdrivetomanufactureathometoregainmarketshare.

"TheobjectiveisthatwhateverwedowithRussia,thatwillhavea'Make-in-India'component,"saidAmitabhKant,thetopIndianbureaucratleading
thepushtoturnIndiaintoaglobalmanufacturingbase.

Underaninter-governmentagreementtobesignedduringModi'strip,Moscowwillsetupaproductionlineforthelighthelicoptersthatwillsupplythe
IndianmilitarybutalsoeventuallyRussia,theRussianofficialsaid.

India'sstate-runHindustanAeronauticsandAnilAmbani'sRelianceDefenceareintherunningaslocalpartnersforthedealforthe200twin-engined
helicopters,estimatedat$1billion,toreplaceIndia'sageingfleetofCheetahandChetakhelicopters.

"ThechoiceoftheIndianpartnerhasbeenlefttotheIndiangovernment.Wewillworkwithanyonethegovernmentnominates,"theofficialsaid.

IndiaisalsoturningtoRussiatosecureoverseasenergyassetstohelpfuelitseconomy.

IndianOilCorpandOilIndia,bothstate-owned,areintalkswithRussia'sRosnefttobuyuptoa29percentstakeinaSiberianoilproject,two
sourcessaidonFriday.

RUSSIAHASTHEADVANTAGE

ThehelicopterdealwouldbethefirstmajorcontractunderModi'sdrivetobuildweaponsathomethathasexcitedlocaldefencecompaniesbutfailed
todeliveranysignificanttenders.

AssomeIndianmanufacturerslooktoWesternfirmsforthetie-upsneededtobringintechnologyandbuildlocally,Relianceisforgingclosertieswith
Russiatojumpstartitsnascentbidtodevelopadefencebusinessfromscratch.

ARelianceexecutive,whoaskednottobenamed,saidnegotiationstowinthejointhelicopterventurewouldnotstartuntilthetwogovernmentshad
agreedthedeal.HindustanAeronauticsdidnotrespondtoarequestforcomment.
AsourceclosetoRosoboronexport,Russia'sstate-ownedarmsexporter,saidIndiawouldproduce140ofthechoppersandRussiatheremaining60.

Pre-contractworkisunderwayandthetwosidesexpecttoclarifytheagreementduringModi'svisit,thesourcesaid.

AnIndiangovernmentofficialconfirmedtheplantosignthehelicopterdealaswellastheproposedofferofAndhraPradeshasthelocationofthenext
setofreactorstobebuiltbyRussianstate-ownednuclearfirmRosatom.

Thetwosideshavenotgivenanyvalueforthedeal.RosatomspokesmanSergeyNovikovsaidtherewerenoplansyettosignanycontractsduring
Modi'svisit.

NandanUnnikrishnan,anexpertonIndia-RussiarelationsattheObserverResearchFoundation,saidthatdespiteNewDelhi'stilttowardstheWest
formilitaryhardwareinrecentyears,Russiaretainedanedgeinmanyareas.

"RussiahasadistinctadvantageovereveryoneinunderstandinghowIndianbureaucracyworks,giventheleveloftrustthatexistsintheIndian
establishmentvis-a-visRussia,"hesaid.

http://sputniknews.com/world/20151219/1032011120/libya-russia-help-terrorism
.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JackE
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at2:33AM
Subject:SaudiArabiaBuys30UkrainianPlanesNamedAfterNotoriousNaziPuppet/AnotherSputnikInternationalStory[GotLovethe
RussianImagination.....andtheChutzpah:FirsttheUkrainians,thentheSyrianOpposition,thentheTurks,andnowtheSaudis,whoare
drivingdownthepricesofoilbelowthe35dollarmark]

To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://m.sputniknews.com/business/20151219/1032018412/ukraine-saudi-aircraft-deal.html

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/19/201501:00:32PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.
Subject:
A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,December19,201512:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,
12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:59PM
Subject:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledin
Syria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]Polishreporton
RussianwarcrimesinDonbas......[AFU]HILARIOUS:"TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE"
[Enjoy/Disseminate]........[CliffK]TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain.......[WD]Meduza:Putin'slies----6ofthemost
outrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference........
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

OnSat,Dec19,2015at1:40PM,JohnBDunlopwrote:

"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8

AsmanyasnineRussiancontractorsdiedinOctoberwhenamortarroundhittheir
homebaseinWesternSyriaTheRussiangovernmenthasntacknowledgedtheir
deaths.TheRussianskilledinSyriabelongedtoaprivategroupcalledOSMThe
groupisknowninformallyasWagner,afterthenomdeguerreofitsleader,aformer
militaryintelligenceofficer

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelGonchar<mi.gor17@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at12:03PM
Subject:Itmightbeinteresting
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,wolodymyrzarycky
<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

ED:ARussian-GermanTale(inUkrainian):The'Technolohiya'ofCircumventingtheSanctions

http://gazeta.dt.ua/international/rosiysko-nimeckiy-nur-gesch-ft-abo-tehnologiya-obhodu-sankciy-_.html

--

Sincerelyyours
MichaelM.Gonchar
PresidentoftheCentreforGlobalStudies
STRATEGYXXI(Kyiv)
HeadoftheKyivInternationalEnergyQ-Club
+380444254162(KyivOffice)
+380989827278(UAGSM)
Office26,Shchekavytskastr.51
Kyiv,04071,Ukraine
http://geostrategy.org.ua

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:42PM
Subject:Fwd:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>

Vlodko

Iknowyouaredown-under,butcanyougetthisouttoyouremaillist.[ED:NotinOzzie-landyet!!]

Borys

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NykolaiBilaniuk<em826@ncf.ca>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:33PM
Subject:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:

RussianwarcrimesineasternUkrainein2014
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/report/
2015-12-1019:07
155pages

ReportinPDFFormatisavailablehere
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Russian_War_Crimes_in_Eastern_Ukraine_in_2014.pdf

Summary

ThisreportdescribeswarcrimesinthemeaningofinternationallawcommittedineasternandsouthernUkrainebysoldiersandofficialsoftheRussianFederationandby
thepro-Russianseparatistfighters.Thecrimesdocumentedhereinincludeunlawfuldeprivationoffreedom,physicalandmentaltortures,robberyandmurders.

Chapters1through3areofanintroductorynature.Theydescribethemethodologyusedbytheauthorsofthereportandpresentthecircumstancesinwhichthe
subsequentlydetailedcrimeswerecommitted.
Thelocationsandtypesofthecrimesthatwerecommittedaswellastheirperpetratorsaredescribedinchapter4.Theauthorsdiscussonlythosecrimestheyweretold
aboutbythevictimsthereofduringthefieldresearch.Morethan60interviewsweregatheredinthecourseofcollectingthematerialsforthisreport.Eachactiondescribed
inchapter4isconfirmedbyaquotefromthetestimonyofoneormorevictims.

Chapter4isdividedintosubchaptersthatcorrespondtoeachofthevenueswherewarcrimeshavebeencommitted,asidentifiedbytheauthorsofthereport.Mostof
thosevenuesareineasternUkraine,oneinCrimeaandoneintheterritoryoftheRussianFederation,wheretheRussianarmybroughtUkrainianprisonersofwar.

Chapter5isacatalogueofperpetratorsofthecrimeswhowerementionedinthetestimoniesofthevictims,includingashortoverviewandreferencestothedescription
ofthevenueswherethecrimeswerebeingcommitted,andpictures.

Thevictimsarenotmentionedbynamebutbyanassigned"C"(case)codenamesandnumbers.Anypersonaldatathatcouldbeusedtoidentifythevictimsindirectly
suchas,forexample,pictures,havebeenincludedonlyifaspecificvictimagreedtothedisclosureofhisorheridentityandspokefreelyinthemedia.

BasedonthedocumentaryevidencedescribedinthereportacommunicationwillbesubmittedtotheInternationalCriminalCourtinTheHague.

ThisreportistheresultofexaminationsconductedbyagroupofvolunteersvolunteerscommissionnedbyaMemberofthePolishParliament,MatgorzataGosiewska.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AndrewJFutey<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:50AM
Subject:TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE
To:ZaryckyjWalter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,HryckowianMykola<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PotapenkoBorys
<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>

AndrewJ.Futey

SentfrommyiPhone

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:"TrumpPutin2016"<info@johnkasich.com>
Date:December19,2015at10:28:35AMEST
To:<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Subject:TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE
Reply-To:info@johnkasich.com

FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
CONTACT:KatrinaPeskov

TRUMPNAMESVLADIMIRPUTINASHISRUNNING
MATE
DuoPledgetoMakeTyrannyGreatAgain

Inaboldandvisionarymovecharacteristicofeverythinghe
does,todayterrificbillionaireDonaldTrumpnamedRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinashisrunningmateinthe2016U.S.
presidentialcampaign.TrumppledgedthattogetherwithPutin
hewouldMakeTyrannyGreatAgain.

TrumpsaidhepickedPutintobehisvicepresidentforhisstrong
approachtodealingwithdissent,flexibleapproachtodemocracy,
ruleoflawandtheConstitution,andhiswillingnesstoregularly
violateothercountriesterritorialintegrityinblatantviolationof
internationallawifitsuitedhisaims.

IthinkIwouldjustgetalongverywellwithVladimirPutin.I
justthinkso.Peoplesaywhatdoyoumean?Ijustthinkwe
would,saidTrump.

PutinreadilyacceptedTrumpsoffertoserveonhisticket,
saying,Hesareallybrilliantandtalentedperson,withouta
doubthestheabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace.

Trumpalsounveiledanewwebsiteforthedictatorial
duo:Trump-Putin2016.com,aswellastheTwitter
feed@TrumpPutin.

ConcernsthataPutinvicepresidencyis,well,illegalarejustsour
grapesfromdummiesnotsmartenoughtothinkofitfirst.

###

Pleaseclickhereifyouwishtounsubscribetotheseemails.

Paidforwithdollars,notrubles,byKasichforAmerica,www.JohnKasich.com

Thismessagewassenttoajfutey@ameritech.netfrom:

TrumpPutin2016|info@johnkasich.com|KasichforAmerica|CapitolSquare,Suite2100,65EastStateStreet|
EmailMarketingby
Columbus,OH43215-4260

Unsubscribe

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:28PM
Subject:TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-seeks-to-make-russia-great-again/

DonaldTrumphashiredanattractiveyoungwomantospinthenewsinhisfavor.Butitsadifficultjob,especiallywhenacold-blooded
killerendorsesyourcandidate.OnCNNonThursdaynight,KatrinaPiersonattemptedtosoftentheimpactoftheRussianpresidents
endorsementoforhighpraiseforTrumpforU.S.president.

Thiswasntanendorsement,shesaid.ThiswassimplyjustapowerfulmanrecognizingsomeoneintheUnitedStatesrunningfor
presidentwhoisalsoapowerfulman.Itwasnotanendorsement.

ThatpowerfulmaninRussiaisaformerKGBspywhoseregimeismurderinginnocentpeopleinUkraineandSyria.Itisthesame
regimewhoseterroristsinEasternUkraineshotdownaMalaysianairplaneandkilledalmost300people.

PutinsaidaboutTrump,Heisaveryflamboyantman,verytalented,nodoubtaboutthat...Heistheabsoluteleaderofthepresidential
race,asweseeittoday.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcan
wenotwelcomethat?Ofcoursewewelcomeit.

Itcertainlysoundedlikesomethingapproachinganendorsement.

TrumpprovidedastatementtoABCNewssaying,Itisalwaysagreathonortobesonicelycomplimentedbyamansohighly
respectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.Trumpwenton:IhavealwaysfeltthatRussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldbeableto
workwellwitheachothertowardsdefeatingterrorismandrestoringworldpeace,nottomentiontradeandalloftheotherbenefits
derivedfrommutualrespect.

Highlyrespected?DoesTrumpnotunderstandhowtheKremlinmanipulatesthemediaandeliminatesoppositionpoliticalfiguresand
independentjournalists?

TrumpsreactionwasmoreembarrassingthanthenewsthatBolshevikBernieSanders,whoisrunningfortheDemocraticpresidential
nomination,hadhoneymoonedintheoldSovietUnion.BasedonhispraiseforPutin,whoranoneofthesuccessoragenciestothe
KGBbeforehebecameRussianpresident,Trumpmayturnouttobeanotherbillionairemorecomfortablewiththepoliciesofthe
DemocraticParty.

Duringthe2012campaign,inthefinalpresidentialdebate,RepublicanpresidentialcandidateMittRomneycalledRussiaageopolitical
foe.PresidentObamamockedhim,sayingRomneywasstuckinthepast.TheObama/HillaryClintonpolicywastheRussianre-set,
whichwassupposedtoincreasetradeandpoliticalcooperationwiththePutinregime.Instead,itsetthestageforPutinsinvasionof
Ukraine.Beforethat,in2008,RussiahadinvadeditsformerRepublicofGeorgia.

TrumpseemsnottounderstandhowtheObama/ClintonRussianpolicyfailed.

Inthecurrentcampaign,SenatorMarcoRubio(R-FL)hasbeenstronglycriticalofPutin,callinghimagangsterandanorganized
crimefigurewhocontrolsthegovernmentandalargeterritory.

Thatterritoryisgrowing.

Asabusinessmanhimself,TrumpshouldknowthatpropertyrightsarenotrespectedinRussiaandthatmostoftheimportantbusinessis
concentratedinthehandsofPutinsformerKGBassociatesandcronies.Thatmakeshiscommentsaboutdevelopingatrade
relationshipwithPutinevenmoreincomprehensible.

BusinessmanBillBrowder,whorananinvestmentfundinRussiacalledHermitageCapitalManagement,wasforcedtofleeRussiaafter
hisassetswerestolen.Hislawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wastorturedandmurdered,andhisdeathhasbecomeaninternationalsymbolof
humanrightsviolationsinRussia.

TheevidenceshowsthatPutinandhisgroupofformerKGBofficersarelootingRussia,consolidatingtheirpower,andeliminating
throughtortureandmurderanyonewhogetsintheirway.Browdersbook,RedNotice,tellsthestoryindetail.Hiswebsite,Russian
Untouchables,namesthenamesoftheRussianofficialsinvolvedinthecase.

AfilmthatwasshownonDecember15attheNewseum,FromRussiawithCash,explainshowRussiangovernmentfiguresseekto
stealandlaundertheirmoneyabroadthroughrealestatetransactionsinvolvingshellcompanies.

PiersontoldCNNthatTrumpsacceptanceofthePutinendorsementwasmadeinthecontextoffightingterrorism,fightingISISinthe
MiddleEast.Shesaid,VladimirPutinhassteppedup.Manypeopledorespecthimforthat,includingAmericanswhomaynotlike
VladimirPutinbuttheylikethefactthathessteppingupandtakingactionagainstISIS.

PiersonisavictimoftheRussianpropagandaoperationsbeingwagedintheU.S.andothercountriesbysuchKremlinoutletsasRussia
Today(RT).

Putinhassteppeduptosavethelong-timeSoviet/RussianclientstateofSyria.Theotherguestontheshow,radiohostBenFerguson,
pointedout,PutinisproppingupAssad.Youshouldunderstandthat,soshouldDonaldTrump.ButTrumpapparentlydoesnot.

Whatsmore,theevidenceindicatesthatPutinsmilitaryhasbeentargetinganti-Assadpro-Westernrebelgroups,notISIS.Infact,
BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondsayspro-AssadmilitarystrikeshaveallowedISIStoseekadvantageontheground.He
said,ThemajorityofRussianairstrikescontinuetotargetSyrianoppositionforces.

ISISitselfhasconfirmedinoneofitsownpublicationsthatRussiaismainlytargetingothergroups,declaringthatRussiaisbombingthe
alliesofAmericaandthatitsinterventioninSyriahasconfusedAmericananalysts,thinktanks,intelligence,andpolicy-makers.

Trumphastobeconsideredintheranksoftheconfused.

InthewakeofTrumpsgaffeduringtherecentdebate,whenhedemonstratedignoranceaboutthenucleartriad,hisacceptanceof
PutinsendorsementmayputthisbusinessmanintheranksofofficialRussiandupes.Ineffect,theleadingGOPpresidentialcandidate
hasbecomecaptivetoMoscowspropaganda.

OncethevotersunderstandhowTrumphasemergedasastoogeofPutininthepresidentialrace,hisdaysasaseriouscandidatewillbe
numbered.

Imlikeareallysmartperson,Trumphassaid.ThisisthecandidatewhoacceptspraisefromVladimirPutinandreturnsthe
compliment,butsayshedoesntwantJebBushsendorsementbecauseheisalowenergypersonandhedoesnotrepresentstrength,
powerandstamina,whicharequalitiesourcountrydesperatelyneeds.

Itmaybetoolate,consideringthedamagehiscommentshavecausedtohiscampaignandreputation,butTrumpoughttodevotesome
ofhisownenergytounderstandinghowtheKremliniswagingawarofpropagandaanddisinformationregardingsubjectslikethewars
inUkraineandSyria.HeshouldalsoreadbusinessmanBillBrowdersbookoncorruptioninRussia.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at1:00PM
Subject:Putin'slies----6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference[Meduza]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

Putinslies

6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterdayspressconference

11:50,18DECEMBER2015MEDUZA

VladimirPutinspentthreehoursansweringjournalists'questionsyesterdayathisannualpress
conference.Severaltimesduringthatmarathon,heplayedfastandloosewithfactsand
statistics.Meduzahighlightssomeofthemostegregiousuntruths.

Cargotrucksandpassengervehiclespaythesamevehicletax.

InPutin'swords:Amotorvehicletaxisthesameforpassengercarsandtrucksweighing12tonnesor
more.[...]Expertssaythatduringaccelerationandbraking,12-tonnetrucksdomoredamagetotheroad
bedthancars.However,theypaythesameamount.Thisproposalseekstocreatealevelplayingfield
foralltypesoftransport.

Infact:Taxratesfortheownersoftrucksandcarsaredifferent.Bylaw,thefederalgovernmentonly
setstheframeworkforvehicletaxrates,butregionalofficialscanraiseordecreasetheserates.Ifyou
lookatthetaxratessetdownbyregionallaws,it'sclearthatpassengervehiclesandcargotruckspay
differenttaxes.Forexample,inSt.Petersburg,apassengercarbetween100and150horsepowerpays
35rubles,whiletrucksofthesamehorsepowerpay40rubles.Andsometimes,itsohappens,cargo
trucksactuallypaylowertaxesthanordinarycars.
Muscovitescanparkneartheirhomesforfreeandeveryoneissatisfied.

InPutin'swords:Andparkingisfreeforpeoplewholiveinthebuildingsnexttothesecarparks.I
canassureyouthatthecitizensconcerned,theMuscoviteswholivenearthesecarparks,aremorein
favorofthepolicythanagainstit.Thechargesapplytothosewhoarrivefromotherdistrictsorother
regions:fromtheMoscowsuburbsandsoon.
Infact:WillingMuscovitescanobtainaso-calledresidentialpermittoparkforfreeneartheirhomes.
Butthisbenefitappliesonlybetweenthehoursof8p.m.and8a.m.For24-hourparking,you'vegotto
pay3,000rubles($42)ayear.DespitePutin'sconfidencethatMuscovitesaremoreinfavorthan
againsttheparkingfees,arecentLevadaCentersurveyshowsthatonlyintheverycenterofMoscow
doesthepolicyenjoynarrowsupport(57percent),whereasresidentsinMoscow'soutskirtsopposethe
newfees76percentto15percent.Justthispastweek,moreover,roughly1,000demonstratorsgathered
indowntownMoscowtoprotesttheparkingfees,resultinginseveraldetentionsbypolice.
Tatarstancandecideforitselfwhattheheadofitslocalgovernmentiscalled"head"or"president."

InPutin'swords:AsforthepresidentofTatarstan,thereisasayinginRussia:Callmeapotbutheat
menot.ThisisTatarstansbusiness.Idonotthinkthatthisissuchasensitiveissueorthatitcouldhurt
nationalfeelings.YouknowthepeopleintheCaucasusalwaysreactvehementlytoallissuesrelatedto
theirnationalidentity.However,evenChechnyasaid:no,thecountryshouldhaveonlyonepresident,
andwewillnotcalltheheadoftherepublicthisway.ThiswasthechoiceoftheChechenpeople.We
willrespectthechoiceofthepeopleofTatarstan.Itisuptoyoutodecide,allright?
Infact:TheChechenpeopleplayednoroleindecidingwhattocallRamzanKadyrov.(Heusedtobe
therepublic'spresident,whereastodayheistherepublic'shead.)Therewasnoreferendum.The
ChechenparliamentmerelyrenamedKadyrov'spositionatKadyrov'sownrequest,whichwas
promptednotbythewillofthepeople,butKadyrov'sownwhim.(Hedecidedthatonlyonepersonin
Russiashouldbecalledpresident,inagestureofservilitytoPutin.)
TheTatarpeoplearealsounlikelytogetasayinwhattheirrepublic'sleaderiscalled.Thereisa
federallawcomingintoeffectonJanuary1,2016,thatdesignatestheleadersofRussianrepublicsas
headsandnothingmore.Atthispoint,onlythefederalgovernmentcanrollbackthisreform.
Russianofficialsdidn'tknowthatTurkeyopposesthebombingofSyrianTurkmen.

InPutin'swords:Yousee,IhadnotheardabouttheTurkomans(SyrianTurks)before.Iknewthat
TurkmenourTurkmenlivedinTurkmenistan,andsoIwasconfusedNobodytoldusaboutthem.
ButafterweindicatedourwillingnesstocooperateontheissuesthataresensitivetoTurkey,why
didn'ttheyphoneusviathecooperationchannelsbetweenourmilitariestosaythatduringour
discussionsweoverlookedacertainpartoftheborderwhereTurkeyhasvestedinterests.Theycould
haveexpressedtheirconcernsoraskedusnottohitcertainareas.Butnobodysaidanything.
Infact:There'snowaytheRussianauthoritiesdidn'tknowwhoSyrianTurkmenare.TheTurkmenare
anethnicgroupofTurkicheritage,andareconsideredtobethethirdlargestminorityinSyria.Turkey
hastraditionallysupportedtheTurkmen.SeveraldaysbeforeTurkeyshotdownaRussianbomber,
TurkishofficialssummonedtheRussianambassadorandformallyprotestedRussianairstrikesagainst
TurkmensettlementsinSyria.
Foreignersdon'twanttoadoptsickchildren.

InPutin'swords:HereshowwewillworkLetsstartfromthelastpartofyourquestion.Idlike
topointoutthataccordingtostatisticsthenumberofsickchildrenadoptedbyforeignersisfarbelow
thatofhealthyones.Noforeignerhaseverrushedtoadoptoursickchildren.Thisisstatistics.Solets
nothurrytochangethedecisionsthatwevealreadymade.Thisisthefirstthing.

Infact:Statistically,foreignersadoptmorehealthychildrenthansickordisabledchildren,butthisisa
misleadingwayoflookingatthephenomenon,giventhatadoptionsofhealthychildrenarealwaysmore
common,regardlessoffosterparents'origins.In2012,Russianandforeignparentsadopted9,169
children,ofwhomonly200weredisabled.Ofalladoptionsbyforeignparents,disabledchildrenwere
adopted6.6percentofthetime.AmongadoptionsbyRussianparents,however,thatfiguredropsto0.4
percent.Inrawnumbers,Russianfosterparentsadopted29childrenwithdisabilitiesin2012,while
foreignparentsadopted171suchchildren.OneineverytenchildrenadoptedbyAmericanparentsthat
yearwasdisabled.
Russiawon'tlevysanctionsagainstUkraine.

InPutin'swords:WearenotgoingtoimposeanysanctionsonUkraineIwantthistobeheard.We
arejustswitchingtoamost-favored-nationtreatmentintrade.WhichmeansconditionsforUkrainewill
notbeanyworsethanthoseforourotherforeignpartners.

Infact:BeginningonJanuary1,2016,RussiawilllevyagainstUkrainethesamesanctionsitcurrently
hasagainsttheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,Canada,andothernationsthathaveplacedsanctions
onRussiaforitsinterventioninCrimea.TheRussiangovernmentdecidedonthesesanctionsagainst
UkrainebackinAugust2015.

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2015/12/18/putin-s-lies

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/20/201510:34:52AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPonVlad'sRU,TrumpandVladwith
Subject:
SamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/New...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Sunday,December20,201510:11AM
Subject:Fwd:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPonVlad'sRU,
TrumpandVladwithSamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/New...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at12:33PM
Subject:SUNMORNING/EST[NOTSO]FUNNIES....FirstCategory:ImagingPutin[Putin'sVictoryLapPutinbytheNumbersPeterPon
Vlad'sRU,TrumpandVladwithSamePlayBook].......SecondCategory:TakingMeasureofPutin'sOld/NewFriendsandOld/NewEnemies
[Libya,Cyprus,Indiavs.Ukes,SyriaOpposition,TurksandNowSaudis]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

THEFIRSTCATEGORY........'AIR(WAVES)'WAR......IT'SALL'IMAGING,IMAGING,IMAGING'

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at6:45PM
Subject:PutinsVictoryLap|TheNationalInterest[ED:NIckGvosdev:ShillingforPutinAgain!!Theyletthisguyteachat
Annapolis????]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/putins-victory-lap-14670

FromSyriaandUkrainetoDonaldTrump,theRussianpresidentassesses2015inamarathonpressconference.

Nikolas K. Gvosdev

December18,2015

inShare6

PresidentVladimirPutinengagedinhistraditionalend-of-yearmarathonpressconferencethisweekwithsome1,300
journalistsattendinginMoscow.Asishiswont,PutinusedtheeventtoreassureRussiansthatdespitethehardshipsofthe
lastyear,theeconomyhasturnedacorner,pensionerswillbetakencareof,subsidieswillbemadeavailabletoRussian
farmersandlow-incomefamilieswillbeshieldedfromthecontinuingriseinutilitycosts.Itispartofhisefforttorenew
Russia'straditionalsocialcontract:theleadershipbeinggivenarelativelyfreemandatetorunthecountryinreturnfor
guaranteeingsocialstabilityandareasonablemodicumofprosperity.Heissignalingthathecancontinuetofulfillhisendof
thebargaindespitethehitstakenbytheRussianeconomyduetosanctionsandfallingenergyprices.

Butthisyear'spresseventwasalsoimportantforwhattheRussianleaderhadtosayaboutforeignpolicy.Whatissignificant
isthatPutin'scommentscomeintheaftermathoftwoverysignificantdevelopments.First,U.S.SecretaryofStateJohn
KerrytraveledtoMoscow,puttingthefinalnailsinthecoffinoftheObamaadministration'sinsistencethatRussiaremains
"isolated"becauseofitsactionsinUkraineandSyria.Inthecourseofthelastyear,Putinhassuccessfullyre-insertedhimself
asanindispensablefigureinglobalpoliticsandRussiaasapowerwhichcannotbeignoredorsidelined.Moreover,Kerry
madecommentswhichsuggestthatU.S.policyonSyria,whichforthepastfouryearshasbeencharacterizedbyanon-
negotiabledemandthatBasharal-Assad"mustgo,"isopenformodification.KerrystatedthatU.S.goalsinSyriadonot
include"regimechange"perseand,echoinglanguageusedbytheRussiansinthepast,notedthatSyriansmustdecidetheir
ownfuturewhilestillincludingthecaveatthattheUnitedStatesdoesnotbelievethatAssadhasanyfutureinapost-
conflictSyria.AndbeforeKerryhadarrived,theKremlinwasalsogratifiedbythedecisionofItalianPrimeMinisterMatteo
RenzitoblocktheautomaticextensionofEUsanctionsagainstRussia,forcingthemtobeplacedontheagendaofEU
leaders.Whilethesanctionsarelikelytoberenewedthistime,Renzi'sactionssignaledthatanumberofEuropeanstatesare
growingtiredofthesanctionsandarelookingforwaystomodifyorremovesanctionsaltogetherin2016.

Thus,inhisremarks,PutinofferedseveralolivebranchestotheWest,includingacontinuedsearchforcooperationinthe
fightagainstterroristorganizationsintheMiddleEastwhichtheKremlinviewsasitsbestoptionforitsrehabilitationafter
theUkrainecrisisandthefirst(iflimited)acknowledgmentsthatthereareRussiansamongtheseparatistsinEastern
Ukraine,butstillfallingshortofadmittingaformal,officialmilitarypresenceonUkrainiansoil.Moreover,theattemptto
shiftsomeoftheblamefordelaysandproblemsinimplementingtheMinsk-2ceasefireplantotheUkrainiansideismeantto
capitalizeongrowingsignsofUkrainefatigueinWesterncapitalswiththeapparentslowpaceofreforms.Readingbetween
thelines,PutinseemstobesignalingawillingnesstofindacompromiseonUkrainethattheWestcanlivewith,whiletrying
tocreatethebasisforclosercooperationoverSyriaifthestickyquestionofAssad'simmediatefuturecanbetakenoffthe
table.ThatMoscowmightbeabletolivewithoutAssadinpoweroverthelongtermwashintedatincommentsthatthe
scaleandscopeoftheRussianmilitaryinterventioninSyria,andtheuseofnavalassetsandairpowerbasedonRussiansoil,
showsthatRussiadoesnotnecessarilyneedtheSyrianfacilitiesinordertobeabletoprojectpowerintheregion.

TheverypublicdigatTurkeyandthesuggestionthattherecentshoot-downofaRussianplanebyTurkishaircraftwasan
attemptbyAnkaratocurryfavorwiththeUnitedStatespointstoPutin'sapparentwillingnesstothrowawayallofthe
workthathasbeendonetobuilduptheRussia-Turkeyrelationshipoverthelastseveralyears.Thepersonalrelationship
betweenPutinandRecepTayyipErdogan,Turkey'spresident,seemsrupturedbeyondrepairthisdespiteErdogan's
previouswarmtieswiththeRussianleader(includingErdogansattendanceatthe2014SochiWinterOlympicGames)anda
sidelinesummitattheG-20inAntalyalastmonththatseemedtopresageawarminginties.Thisnewhostilitysuggestsnot
onlythedeeppersonalaffrontPutinfeelsfortheshoot-down,butanassessmentthatbetweentheapparentKerrybackdown
onAssad,whomTurkeywantstoseego,andthemovingforwardoftheexpansionoftheNordStreampipeline,which
removestheeconomicandsecurityrationalefortheTurkishStream,RussiacanaffordtotakeaharderlinewithAnkara.

Ofcourse,thecommentswhichhavedrawnthemostattentionarePutin'sendorsementofthecandidacyofDonaldTrump.
WhilepiouslyproclaimingthatRussiadoesnotseektointerveneinAmericandomesticpolitics,andwouldfindawayto
workwithanyonewhoiselectednextyear,Putindescribedthereal-estatemogulandcurrentRepublicanfront-runnerasan
"outstandingman"and"unquestionablytalented"amarkedchangefromotherleaderswhohavebeenhighlycriticaland
disparagingofTrump.(Trumprespondedpositivelytothoseremarksseveralhourslater,citingPutinasarespectedworld
leaderthathecandobusinesswith.)

IsPutinhavingfunwiththeU.S.mediabyall-but-endorsingTrumpasthe"absoluteleader"inthepollsthatthisisatrolling
effortofextraordinarymagnitudebysuggestingthatwhattheUnitedStatesneedsisaPutin-styleadministrationinoffice?Is
thisPutin'seffortstostrikebackatbeingtheleading"badguy"thatmostotherU.S.presidentialcandidateshaveidentified
andpromisedtocontain,slapdownorputinhisplace?Orishesuggestingthatatrue"reset"canonlyoccurwithaDonald
TrumpintheOvalOffice?

WhetherornotPutinbelieves(orisbeingfedanalysis)thatTrumpcouldwinthepresidency,Putin'spraiseofTrumpreflects
hiscontemptofmuchoftheU.S.politicalestablishment.HehasdealtwithtwoU.S.presidentswhopromisedfundamental
changesintheU.S.-Russiarelationshipbutwho,fromhisperspective,wereunwillingtoinvestseriouspoliticalcapitaland
risktheireofestablishedinterestgroupstomakerealchangesandwhoinsteadwerealwaystryingtosquarethecircle
betweenengagingRussiaandcontinuingtosupporttheexpansionofEuro-Atlanticinstitutionseastward.ThepraiseofTrump
signalsPutin'sinterestinfindingWesternleaderswhowillcometothetabletobargainingoodnineteenth-centurystyle,
tradingspheresofinfluenceforcooperation.Italsosuggeststhathedoesnottaketherestofthepresidentialfieldboth
DemocratsandRepublicansallthatseriously.

ThejokemaybeonPutinifhisgamblesfailandtheeconomyworsens.Bythetimeofnextyear'sgalaevent,we'llsee
whetherhispredictionofaTrumpvictoryhasbeenborneoutbyeventsandwhetherwhoeverwillsucceedBarackObama
intheWhiteHousewillconsiderengagingPutinalongtheTrumpline.

NikolasGvosdevisacontributingeditoratTheNationalInterestandco-authorofRussianForeignPolicy:Vectors,Sectors
andInterests(CQPress,2013).Theviewsexpressedherearehisown.

Image:WikimediaCommons/Kremlin.ru.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at7:49PM
Subject:3yearsofPutin-HowRussiahaschangedinthe3yearssincesanctionscameintopower[ED:TheReality......NumbersDon't
Lie]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

PutinPostSanctions

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:36PM
Subject:UnderstandingmodernRussia?WhyEuropeanleadersshouldreadPeterPomerantsev[ED:GettingPutinRight]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

UnderstandingmodernRussia?WhyEuropeanleadersshould
readPeterPomerantsev
http://www.ecfr.eu/article/understanding_modern_russia_why_european_leaders_should_read_peter_pomerant#.VnWV-
5DQ-5I.twitter

VladislavSurkov,thedemiurgeoftheKremlin,surprisesusallbyenteringfrombehindtheuniversityauditorium,beforetakingthestageinfrontofan
audiencepackedwithdoctoratestudents,professors,journalistsandpoliticians.Heiswearingawhitet-shirtandleatherjacket,fallinghalfway
betweenJoyDivisionandacommissarfromthe30s.Iamtheauthor,oroneoftheauthors,ofthenewRussiansystem.MyportfolioattheKremlin
andingovernmenthasincludedideology,media,politicalparties,religion,modernisation,innovation,foreignrelations,and...herehepausesand
smilesmodernart.Hedecidesnotmakeaspeech,butinsteadinvitestheaudiencetoposequestionsandhaveanopendiscussionwithhim.After
thefirstquestion,hetalksforalmost45minutes,leavinghardlyanytimeforothers.Itsademonstrationofhispoliticalsysteminminiature:democratic
rhetoricandundemocraticintent.

InNothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:AdventuresinModernRussia,abrilliantandattimesappallingportrayaloftodaysRussianelites,
PeterPomerantsevintroducesSurkov.Oftenlurkingintheshadows,SurkovhascontributedtothePutingovernmentsconsolidationofpowerthrough
Hollywood-stylemediastuntsandthroughwhatinthepost-Sovietspaceisknownaspoliticaltechnology.

Showbiz,politicaltechnologyandoldfashionedauthoritarianism

ThroughhisownforayintothemedialandscapeofRussia,PomerantsevexplainshowthenewKremlin,havinggainedcontroloftelevisionnetworks,
hasshowngreatskillincombiningWestern-styleentertainmentwithauthoritarianismandmoreorlesssubtlepropaganda.ThemistakeoftheTVinthe
USSR-beingboringisnowavoidedatallcosts.Alwayscentrestage,thefigureofthepresidentisinconstantmetamorphosis,likeanactor.Putin
switchesbetweentherolesofsoldier,lover,bare-chestedhunter,businessman,spy,tsar,superman.Surkovwouldmeetonaweeklybasiswiththe
directorsofthemainchannels,decidingwhotoattackandwhotodefendwhichpoliticalleaderwouldenjoyairtimeandwhowouldnot.Thescreen
relentlesslydepictsthepresidentasthedoyenofstabilityandefficiencyincontrasttothepresidentialchaosofthe90s,andrepeatedlyputsout
messagesaboutthemandtheenemy,meaningoppositionleaders,liberals,journalists,theWest,theUnitedStatesandchurki(apejorativeterm
forpeoplefromtheCaucusesandCentralAsia,thatassociatesthemwithterrorismandblackwidows).Inaway,thisisnotdissimilartotherhetoric
pumpedoutbyFoxNewsandotherchannels,whichthroughoutthenever-endingWaronTerrorhavedisseminatedthelibellousopinionsofDonald
Trumpandotherslikehim-dressingupxenophobia,defamationandthestigmatisationofminoritiesasnormality.

Pomerantsevdescribeshowthispublicdiscourse,alongwiththeKremlinsgrowingparanoiaregardingfifthcolumns,gotfiercerastheneedtocreate
panicandfearbecamegreater,turningoffrationality.Inparallel,theKremlininvestedintheinfrastructuretodisseminateitsownreadingsof
internationalrelations,presentedasRussiasview,throughformatsandplatformswhichareWesterninappearance,suchasRussiaToday.

Politicaltechnologyisameansofappropriatingpracticallyallformsofpoliticaldiscoursepossible,theirideologiesandmovements,givingthem
visibilityorridiculinganddemonisingthem,accordingtothecircumstances.PeoplelikeSurkovmayactivelysupportorcreateNGOs,partiesand
liberalleadersseeminglycriticaloftheKremlin(aslongasthatcriticismislimited),andthenext,putthemunderfirefromultranationalistforcesand
orthodoxfundamentalists.Oldertraditionsofco-optingforcesthatopposetheregimeinpower,presentingthemasalivethreat,areblendedwith
twenty-firstcenturymediatechnologyandPRstrategies-somethingwhichhasworkedwellinRussianpropagandaaboutUkrainesNazis.The
dissentingvoicesincivilsocietyandpoliticalforcesarestigmatised,notonlyasanti-Russianandtraitors,but,inPomerantsevswords,asMuscovite
hipstersoutoftouchwithordinaryRussians,concernedonlybymarginalissuessuchasfreedomsorLGBTrights.

Totopthisoff,mediacampaignsandtheuseofpoliticaltechnologyarecombinedwithtraditionalrepressiveaction,reminiscentofpasttimes.Hence,
decisionstoclassifycivilsocietyorganisationsasundesirableorforeignagents,restrictingtheiractivitiestoaminimumshamtrials,andthe
rejectionofthejurisdictionoftheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights.

ButthenoveltyofthisbrandofauthoritarianismistocombinesheerrepressionwithasubtleuseofmodernWesternstrategiesofmediaandPRforthe
controlofthemasses.Realityisdeconstructedandanillusioncreatedofapluralpublicspace-aspacethatisalsoattractiveforpeopleoutside
Russia,scepticaltowardstheEU,WashingtonandtheWesteventhoughthisisfarfromthecase.

Russlandverstehersgetitwrong:thetheatreofabsurdandzomboyashschiks

InourpartofEuropeandincountriessuchasFrance,Spain,GermanyorItaly,acommonmessageinanypoliticaldebateaboutRussia,Ukraineor
thepost-SovietspaceingeneralistheimportanceofunderstandingRussiaandtheRussianmentality.Ittendstobeaccompaniedwithlearned
nodstotheSlavicworld,thetsars,theSovietUnionandreferencestoDostoyevskyandTolstoy.Inthisvein,theRusslandversteherstendtocross
thelinebetweenexplainingeventssuchastheannexationofCrimea,ortherestrictionsonfreedominRussia,andjustifyingthem.

ClassicslikeDostoyevskyorTolstoycanbeusefultounderstandtheculturalsubstrataofmanyRussiansandtheirtakeonexistence.Likewise,
RussianforeignpolicyinthetsaristperiodandtheUSSRcanshedsomelightontodaysgeopoliticaltensionsandtheRussianperspectiveinits
backyard.ButneitherhistorynorgeopoliticsalonecanexplaintodaysRussia.ThesystemdescribedbyPomerantsevmightbeevenmoreusefulfor
ourpoliticaldecision-makerswhenitcomestounderstandingcontemporaryRussiaand,especially,thenatureofitselitesandthepowercirclein
question.
AsPomerantsevargues,itisdifficulttoappreciatethebrutalimpactthattheconsecutivedestructionofvariouspoliticalmodelsfromtheUSSR
toperestroikaorneoliberalismhasonasocietyanditselites.TodaysRussianelitesoftencombinenihilism,aNietzschian
characterofbermenschabovemoralcodes,andextremematerialism.ProminentproKremlinpoliticiansvituperateagainsttheWestfromthe
Duma,sometimesthreateninganucleararmageddonorridiculingGayeuropa,whilesendingtheirchildrentoOxbridgeorCostaBrava.Concepts
likeMotherRussiaandtheRussianworld(russkiymir)doubtlessservetomobilisethegeneralpopulationnowandthen,whoasmany
Westerners-areneedfulofcollectivelandmarksintimesofuncertainty,penuryandmoralvacuum.Buttheseideasmostlyoperateasinstrumentsof
powerwieldedbyadominantclassinordertodirectattentionawayfrommoreimmediateproblemsandbasicgovernanceshortcomings.

Deepdown,thereisanongoingerosionofmorality,somethingwhichnosocietyisimmunefrom,whetherduetothelegaciesoftotalitarianismand
conflict,thepoisonousrhetoricofleaders,orendemicimpunity.AcasecanalsobemadeagainstthatUSintoxicatedbyapoliticsoffearwhich
justifiestortureandvotesinCongressagainsttheacceptanceofSyrianrefugees.OrthinkofthesurrealbubbleofshrinkingcosmopolitanTelAviv,
wherehandsomeyouthsworkingoutbythebeachjustafewmilesfromthedramaticrealityofoccupationandviolentdeath.ThisRussiaofspinand
showbizmakesapoliticalsystemandwayoflifeforitsrulersoutofthetheatreofthelieandtheabsurd(liketheweatherforecastforbombingSyria).
Itprefersdevotedzomboyashchiks(zombies)topoliticallyactivecitizens.

AnotherRussia?

Baraviolentrevolutionarypoliticalchange(and,probably,supportfromwithinthesystem,asinothercases),itisperhapsutopicthinkingtoconceive
ofanypossibilityofrevertingtheKremlinssystemsandprocessesofcollectiveregressionwhetherbywell-intentionedexternalactorsorcommitted
localactivists.Atleastfromoutsideofthecircleofpowerwhichconstructsrealityandshapesthesocialorder.

Yet,attimes,theredoesexistanotherRussia,which,whenitmanagestomakeitsvoiceheard,harshlyrefutesmanyargumentsofthe
RusslandverstehersandPutinsupporters.ThisistheRussiaofyoungleaderssuchasIlyaYashin,criticalofthewarinUkraine,whoseRPR-
PARNASpartysufferedallkindsofboycottsinSeptembersregionalelections.ItcertainlywastheRussiaofBorisNemtsovorAnnaPolitkovskaya.
OreventheRussiaofthosethousandsofMoscowcitizenswhotooktothestreetsinlate2011,creatinghugeanxietyinthehallsofpower.

TheRussianquestionandthecountrysassimilationintheEuro-AtlanticspacewillcontinuewithorwithoutPutin.ButthefutureofRussiaasitis
shouldbeaconcernforall.WithoutwishingtolapseintoromanticidealismorManicheanvisions,thisotherRussiaor,rather,otherRussiaswould
probablybeclosertoEurope,pronetocooperationandfriendlierrelationswiththeneighbours.Thesadfacttodayisthatalargepartofthatother
Russiachoosesexile.

Andyetmaybebecauseofagenerationalfactororgenuinerespectforthosedissentingvoicesagainstahegemonicmodel(whereprotestingmeans
riskingitall)-itisinevitabletofeelmoreempathytowardsPussyRiot,PetrPavlensky,theiconoclastartist,orNGOslikeMemorial,thanblind
nostalgiaaboutanidealisedRussia(nottomentionanequallyidealisedUSSR)whichnolongerexists.

IfthatotherRussiaendsupdisappearingandthosevoicesarelefttowither,thefutureofthisOrwellianRussiawheretheworldisturnedonitshead,
willnotendearitsneighboursorEurope.Butaboveallitdoesnotbodewellatallforthepeoplewhoactuallylivethere.

*TranslationbyJamesBadcock.

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/understanding_modern_russia_why_european_leaders_should_read_peter_pomerant#.VnWV-5DQ-5I.twitter

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:10PM
Subject:ForMr.TrumpandMr.Putin,abondofpower-hungriness,vulgarityandcynicism
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

ForMr.TrumpandMr.Putin,abondofpowerhungriness,vulgarityandcynicism

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/formrtrumpandmrputinabondofpowerhungrinessvulgarityand
cynicism/2015/12/19/7c4401b0a5b511e5b53d972e2751f433_story.html

TheinsidetrackonWashingtonpolitics.

FORDONALDTrump,nothingmeritsrespectmorethanhighpollnumbers,includinghisown,whichtheRepublicanpresidentialhopeful
equateswithstrength,intelligenceandsuccess.InMr.Trumpsworldview,thatsimplisticformulationisreasonalonetoaccorddeference
andesteemtoVladimirPutinnevermindthattheRussianpresidentisanautocratwhosepopularityathomerestsinnosmallmeasure
onhavingsilencedcriticswhoseviews,weretheyallowedapublicairing,mightputacrimpinhisapprovalrating.

Forhispart,Mr.Putin,whosecynicismandsnarlingvulgarityaremirroredinMr.Trumpsownpoliticaloratory,seesintheU.S.mogula
manafterhisownheart.FortheRussianpresident,whooncerecommendedthatajournalistgetcircumcised,Mr.Trumpssuggestionthat
FoxNewssMegynKellywasmenstruatingwhenshechallengedhimmusthaveseemedabonmot,ifalittletoosubtlefortheRussians
taste.DittoMr.Trumpsindulgenceandoutrightapprovalofhissupportersuseofviolence.

TheirmutualadmirationsocietygotapublicairingthisweekwhentheRussianleaderconfessedhisadmirationforMr.Trump(avery
brightandtalentedmanandanabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace)andMr.Trumpimmediatelyreturnedthefavor,sayinghewas
greatlyhonoredbyMr.Putinspraise.

SowhatifMr.PutinhasorderedthekillingofjournalistsandtheinvasionofCrimea,Mr.TrumpsaidFriday,inresponsetoaquestionfrom
MSNBCsJoeScarborough,onMorningJoe.Hesrunninghiscountry,andatleasthesaleader,saidMr.Trump.Unlikewhatwehave
inthiscountry.

Whatthetwomenshare,andrecognizeineachother,goesbeyondstrongpollingnumbers,anaffinityforincendiarylanguageanda
contemptforthose(withPresidentObamaleadingthelist)theyregardasweak.Whatreallyattractsthemisacommonworldviewin
whichmoneytalksanddemocraticnormsareforsuckers.

MuchasMr.Putinhasmuzzledfreeexpressioninthemedia,marginalizedpoliticalopponentsandscrappedcontestedelections,
Mr.TrumphasblithelyendorsedshuttingdownpartsoftheInternet,praisedPresidentFranklinD.RooseveltforinterningJapanese
AmericansduringWorldWarIIandopenlycontemplatedregisteringMuslimsinAmerica.

WhereMr.Putinseescorruptionasthenorm,Mr.Trumpsimilarlyregardspublicserviceasamarketplaceinwhichanyoneandeveryone
canbebought.Igivetoeverybody,Mr.TrumptoldaNewHampshireaudienceinthesummer.TheydowhateverIwant.Itstrue.

Granted,Mr.Trump,hisrhetoricnotwithstanding,ishardlyinMr.Putinsleagueasavicioustyrant.Mr.Trumpscriticsaresubjectedonly
tothevenomofhisinsults;Mr.Putinshaveawayofendingupinprison,orshottodeathinthestreet.

ButbelievetheAmericantycoonwhenhesaysthatMr.Putinisamanwithwhomhewouldgetalong,andwho,intermsof
leadership,hesgettinganA.Thefeelingismutual,andrevealing.

Readmoreaboutthistopic:

DavidIgnatius:IsDonaldTrumpanAmericanPutin?

GeorgeF.Will:TrumpsimmigrationplancouldspelldoomfortheGOP

EugeneRobinson:TheGOPsscariestcandidate

SECOND'VLAD'CATEGORY:"HELPINGFRIENDS[SuddenlyforwardtoLibyaandCyprusaswellasbackto
India].....HOUNDINGENEMIES[Ukrainians,theSyrianOpposition,theTurksandsoontheSaudis]'.....ONE
HECKOFAGUY!!!"
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at9:26PM
Subject:LibyaSeeksRussia'sHelpinBattlingTerrorism(OhBOYIsensedthiswascoming!!!-WD)
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

LibyaSeeksRussiasHelpinBattlingTerrorism
11:5119.12.2015
http://sputniknews.com/world/20151219/1032011120/libya-russia-help-terrorism
.html

TheLibyanArmedForces'CommanderBrigadierGeneralKhalifaHafterhasvoicedhiscountry'sreadiness
tocooperatewithRussiainfightingterrorism,accordingtotheIraniannewsagencyFARS.

"WewelcomesupportfromRussiainfightingterrorism,"theagencyquotesHafterastellingreportersafte
hismeetingwithUnitedNationsSupportMissioninLibya(UNSMIL)ChiefMartinKoblerinthecityofMarj,
NortheasternLibya.
WillSyriaRepeattheFateofLibya,WhichNoLongerExists?ThemilitaryleaderassuredthatifRussia
proposesaplanforfightingterrorisminLibya,TripoliwillcooperatewithMoscow,addingthatRussians

areseriousin[the]fightagainstterrorists.

Thecountry'scapitalTripoli,iscontrolledbyapoliticalfaction,knownastheGeneralNationalCongress,
whichwassetupafteranarmedgroupcalledLibyaDawnseizedthecapital,Tripoli,lastsummer.

OnThursday,rivalLibyanpoliticianssignedadealonaunitygovernmentdespiteoppositiononbothsides,
inwhattheUnitedNationsdescribedasa"firststep"towardsendingthecrisis.

Worldpowershaveurgedthewarringfactionstobreakapoliticaldeadlockthathasallowedjihadistsand
people-smugglerstoflourish.Meanwhile,thejihadistgroupDaesh(alsoknownasISIL/ISIS)hasincreasedits
presenceintheLibyanMediterraneancityofSirte,havingapparentlyestablisheditsnewbasethere,whereit
cangenerateoilrevenueandplanterrorattacks.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JACKE
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at10:41AM
Subject:SyriagivesRFtheEasternMedCyprusopensuptheWesternMedtoRU
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://cyprus-mail.com/2015/12/20/poll-majority-would-favour-granting-military-facilities-to-russia/

Home

Cyprus

Poll:majoritywouldfavourgrantingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussia(Update:
addsEDEKvindication)
DECEMBER20TH,2015CYPRUS39COMMENTS
CYPRUS

ARussianSukhoiSu-24fighterjettakesofffromtheHmeymimairbasenearLatakia,Syria,

RELATEDPOST...

Chineseminister'svisitaimstoboosttieswithCyprus

CypruspositionsitselfonEU-Turkeytalks

SuspectedRussianwarplaneskillscoresinSyriancity-rescueworkers

AlmostthreeoutoffourCypriotswouldwelcometheprovisionofmilitaryfacilitiestoRussiabyCyprus,accordingtoapollconductedforSimerini
newspaperandpublishedonSunday.

OverhalfofthosepolledislandwideonDecember16and17,saidthegovernmentshouldseekclosertieswithMoscow.

TheissueofofferingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussiacameupearlierthismonthwhentheRussianambassadorsaidthematterwasbeingdiscussedby
NicosiaandMoscowbutthiswaslaterdeniedbytheforeignministriesofbothcountries.Russiaistobeofferedhumanitarianandrefuellingfacilities
suchasthosealreadygiventoFranceandGermany.

AccordingtotheSimerinipoll,carriedoutbytheUniversityofNicosia,42percentsaidthatCyprusshouldhaveequallycloserelationswiththeUS
andwithRussia.
SevenoutoftenCypriotswereopentoofferingmilitaryfacilitiestoRussianforcesfightingagainstterrorism,with37percentgoingasfarassaying
Cyprusshouldgivethemabase.

ThreeoutoffivesaidtheywouldfeelsaferiftherewasaRussianmilitarypresenceontheisland.Twooutoffivesaidtheyfeellesssafeinrecent
monthssinceBritainbeganbombingtheIslamicStateinSyriafromitsRAFbaseinCyprus.

SocialistEDEK,whichhasbeenpushingthegovernment,alongwiththeCitizensAlliancetograntRussiamilitaryfacilities,saidonSundaythepoll
hadvindicateditspositionontheissue.InthefightagainstterrorismandtheillegalIslamicstateofISISwemustofferthesamemilitaryfacilitiesasan
allyofFranceandofRussia,thepartysaid.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at9:05PM
Subject:India-Russiaeyenuclear,helicopterdeals[HeadingbacktooldColdWarAlignments?India-RU????AgainsttheWest?]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>

India-Russiaeyenuclear,helicopterdeals

Dec18,2015,10.33PM|Source:Reuters

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/current-affairs/india-russia-eye-nuclear-helicopter-deals_4654261.html

PrimeMinisterNarendraModiisexpectedtopromotedealsforRussiannuclearreactorsandmilitaryhelicoptersworthbillionsofdollarsonatripto
Moscownextweek,attractedbypromisestotransfertechnologythatWesternnationshavebeenslowtomake.

PrimeMinisterNarendraModiisexpectedtopromotedealsforRussiannuclearreactorsandmilitaryhelicoptersworthbillionsofdollarsonatripto
Moscownextweek,attractedbypromisestotransfertechnologythatWesternnationshavebeenslowtomake.

RussiaandIndiawillmanufacture200Kamov-226Thelicoptersinajointventure,aRussianandanIndiangovernmentofficialsaid,inthefirstbigstep
forModi'scampaigntobuildadomesticindustrialbaseandreducethemilitary'sdependenceonexpensiveimports.

Modi,whoheadsforMoscowonDec.23,willalsoofferRussiaasiteinAndhraPradeshtobuildsixnuclearreactorsof1,200megawatts(MW)
each,thesamesourcesadded.

ThatisinadditiontothesixRussiaisconstructinginneighbouringTamilNadu,saidtheofficials,whospokeonconditionofanonymitybecausethey
werenotauthorisedtospeaktothepress.

NewDelhihasturnedtoRussiaasU.S.firmGeneralElectricandWestinghouse,aU.S.-basedunitofJapan'sToshiba,arestillweighinganentryinto
India'snuclearenergysectorbecauseofalawthatmakesreactorsuppliersliableincaseofanaccident.

Modi's"Make-in-India"pushforamilitarythathasbeentheworld'sbiggestimporterforthelastfouryearshasalsomadelittleheadway,with
negotiationsstalledoverissuesincludingtechnologytransferandthelocalassemblyofequipment.

ForRussia,Indiaoffersanalternative,fast-growingoutletforitsexportsassanctionsimposedbytheWestsqueezetheeconomy.

"Whileothersaremakingpromises,RussiaismovingforwardwiththeMake-in-Indiaprogramme,"theRussiangovernmentsourcesaid.

RUSSIALETDOMINANCESLIP

Moscow,whichhasmaintainedclosetieswithIndiasincetheColdWar,hasinrecentyearsslippedbehindtheUnitedStatesandIsraelinsecuring
ordersintheIndiandefencemarket,estimatedtobeworth$130billionoverthenextsevenyears.

NowRussianPresidentVladimirPutinisbankingonIndia'sdrivetomanufactureathometoregainmarketshare.

"TheobjectiveisthatwhateverwedowithRussia,thatwillhavea'Make-in-India'component,"saidAmitabhKant,thetopIndianbureaucratleading
thepushtoturnIndiaintoaglobalmanufacturingbase.

Underaninter-governmentagreementtobesignedduringModi'strip,Moscowwillsetupaproductionlineforthelighthelicoptersthatwillsupplythe
IndianmilitarybutalsoeventuallyRussia,theRussianofficialsaid.

India'sstate-runHindustanAeronauticsandAnilAmbani'sRelianceDefenceareintherunningaslocalpartnersforthedealforthe200twin-engined
helicopters,estimatedat$1billion,toreplaceIndia'sageingfleetofCheetahandChetakhelicopters.

"ThechoiceoftheIndianpartnerhasbeenlefttotheIndiangovernment.Wewillworkwithanyonethegovernmentnominates,"theofficialsaid.

IndiaisalsoturningtoRussiatosecureoverseasenergyassetstohelpfuelitseconomy.

IndianOilCorpandOilIndia,bothstate-owned,areintalkswithRussia'sRosnefttobuyuptoa29percentstakeinaSiberianoilproject,two
sourcessaidonFriday.

RUSSIAHASTHEADVANTAGE

ThehelicopterdealwouldbethefirstmajorcontractunderModi'sdrivetobuildweaponsathomethathasexcitedlocaldefencecompaniesbutfailed
todeliveranysignificanttenders.

AssomeIndianmanufacturerslooktoWesternfirmsforthetie-upsneededtobringintechnologyandbuildlocally,Relianceisforgingclosertieswith
Russiatojumpstartitsnascentbidtodevelopadefencebusinessfromscratch.

ARelianceexecutive,whoaskednottobenamed,saidnegotiationstowinthejointhelicopterventurewouldnotstartuntilthetwogovernmentshad
agreedthedeal.HindustanAeronauticsdidnotrespondtoarequestforcomment.
AsourceclosetoRosoboronexport,Russia'sstate-ownedarmsexporter,saidIndiawouldproduce140ofthechoppersandRussiatheremaining60.

Pre-contractworkisunderwayandthetwosidesexpecttoclarifytheagreementduringModi'svisit,thesourcesaid.

AnIndiangovernmentofficialconfirmedtheplantosignthehelicopterdealaswellastheproposedofferofAndhraPradeshasthelocationofthenext
setofreactorstobebuiltbyRussianstate-ownednuclearfirmRosatom.

Thetwosideshavenotgivenanyvalueforthedeal.RosatomspokesmanSergeyNovikovsaidtherewerenoplansyettosignanycontractsduring
Modi'svisit.

NandanUnnikrishnan,anexpertonIndia-RussiarelationsattheObserverResearchFoundation,saidthatdespiteNewDelhi'stilttowardstheWest
formilitaryhardwareinrecentyears,Russiaretainedanedgeinmanyareas.

"RussiahasadistinctadvantageovereveryoneinunderstandinghowIndianbureaucracyworks,giventheleveloftrustthatexistsintheIndian
establishmentvis-a-visRussia,"hesaid.

http://sputniknews.com/world/20151219/1032011120/libya-russia-help-terrorism
.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JackE
Date:Sun,Dec20,2015at2:33AM
Subject:SaudiArabiaBuys30UkrainianPlanesNamedAfterNotoriousNaziPuppet/AnotherSputnikInternationalStory[GotLovethe
RussianImagination.....andtheChutzpah:FirsttheUkrainians,thentheSyrianOpposition,thentheTurks,andnowtheSaudis,whoare
drivingdownthepricesofoilbelowthe35dollarmark]

To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://m.sputniknews.com/business/20151219/1032018412/ukraine-saudi-aircraft-deal.html

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/19/201501:00:32PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.
Subject:
A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,December19,201512:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,
12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDo...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:59PM
Subject:[SATAFTERNOON/ESTITEMSTONOTE---RICHLODE][JohnD]Fwd:"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledin
Syria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8.....[MichaelG]TheRU-DE'Technolohiya'UsedtoCircumventSanctions........[BP]Polishreporton
RussianwarcrimesinDonbas......[AFU]HILARIOUS:"TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE"
[Enjoy/Disseminate]........[CliffK]TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain.......[WD]Meduza:Putin'slies----6ofthemost
outrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference........
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

OnSat,Dec19,2015at1:40PM,JohnBDunlopwrote:

"RussianCONTRACTORSwerekilledinSyria,"WSJ,12/19-20,p.A8

AsmanyasnineRussiancontractorsdiedinOctoberwhenamortarroundhittheir
homebaseinWesternSyriaTheRussiangovernmenthasntacknowledgedtheir
deaths.TheRussianskilledinSyriabelongedtoaprivategroupcalledOSMThe
groupisknowninformallyasWagner,afterthenomdeguerreofitsleader,aformer
militaryintelligenceofficer

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelGonchar<mi.gor17@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at12:03PM
Subject:Itmightbeinteresting
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>,wolodymyrzarycky
<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

ED:ARussian-GermanTale(inUkrainian):The'Technolohiya'ofCircumventingtheSanctions

http://gazeta.dt.ua/international/rosiysko-nimeckiy-nur-gesch-ft-abo-tehnologiya-obhodu-sankciy-_.html

--

Sincerelyyours
MichaelM.Gonchar
PresidentoftheCentreforGlobalStudies
STRATEGYXXI(Kyiv)
HeadoftheKyivInternationalEnergyQ-Club
+380444254162(KyivOffice)
+380989827278(UAGSM)
Office26,Shchekavytskastr.51
Kyiv,04071,Ukraine
http://geostrategy.org.ua

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BorysPotapenko<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:42PM
Subject:Fwd:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>

Vlodko

Iknowyouaredown-under,butcanyougetthisouttoyouremaillist.[ED:NotinOzzie-landyet!!]

Borys

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NykolaiBilaniuk<em826@ncf.ca>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:33PM
Subject:PolishreportonRussianwarcrimesinDonbas
To:

RussianwarcrimesineasternUkrainein2014
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/report/
2015-12-1019:07
155pages

ReportinPDFFormatisavailablehere
http://www.donbasswarcrimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Russian_War_Crimes_in_Eastern_Ukraine_in_2014.pdf

Summary

ThisreportdescribeswarcrimesinthemeaningofinternationallawcommittedineasternandsouthernUkrainebysoldiersandofficialsoftheRussianFederationandby
thepro-Russianseparatistfighters.Thecrimesdocumentedhereinincludeunlawfuldeprivationoffreedom,physicalandmentaltortures,robberyandmurders.

Chapters1through3areofanintroductorynature.Theydescribethemethodologyusedbytheauthorsofthereportandpresentthecircumstancesinwhichthe
subsequentlydetailedcrimeswerecommitted.
Thelocationsandtypesofthecrimesthatwerecommittedaswellastheirperpetratorsaredescribedinchapter4.Theauthorsdiscussonlythosecrimestheyweretold
aboutbythevictimsthereofduringthefieldresearch.Morethan60interviewsweregatheredinthecourseofcollectingthematerialsforthisreport.Eachactiondescribed
inchapter4isconfirmedbyaquotefromthetestimonyofoneormorevictims.

Chapter4isdividedintosubchaptersthatcorrespondtoeachofthevenueswherewarcrimeshavebeencommitted,asidentifiedbytheauthorsofthereport.Mostof
thosevenuesareineasternUkraine,oneinCrimeaandoneintheterritoryoftheRussianFederation,wheretheRussianarmybroughtUkrainianprisonersofwar.

Chapter5isacatalogueofperpetratorsofthecrimeswhowerementionedinthetestimoniesofthevictims,includingashortoverviewandreferencestothedescription
ofthevenueswherethecrimeswerebeingcommitted,andpictures.

Thevictimsarenotmentionedbynamebutbyanassigned"C"(case)codenamesandnumbers.Anypersonaldatathatcouldbeusedtoidentifythevictimsindirectly
suchas,forexample,pictures,havebeenincludedonlyifaspecificvictimagreedtothedisclosureofhisorheridentityandspokefreelyinthemedia.

BasedonthedocumentaryevidencedescribedinthereportacommunicationwillbesubmittedtotheInternationalCriminalCourtinTheHague.

ThisreportistheresultofexaminationsconductedbyagroupofvolunteersvolunteerscommissionnedbyaMemberofthePolishParliament,MatgorzataGosiewska.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AndrewJFutey<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:50AM
Subject:TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE
To:ZaryckyjWalter<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,HryckowianMykola<mykcusur@gmail.com>,PotapenkoBorys
<boryspotapenko@gmail.com>

AndrewJ.Futey

SentfrommyiPhone

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:"TrumpPutin2016"<info@johnkasich.com>
Date:December19,2015at10:28:35AMEST
To:<ajfutey@ameritech.net>
Subject:TRUMPNAMESPUTINASHISRUNNINGMATE
Reply-To:info@johnkasich.com

FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
CONTACT:KatrinaPeskov

TRUMPNAMESVLADIMIRPUTINASHISRUNNING
MATE
DuoPledgetoMakeTyrannyGreatAgain

Inaboldandvisionarymovecharacteristicofeverythinghe
does,todayterrificbillionaireDonaldTrumpnamedRussian
PresidentVladimirPutinashisrunningmateinthe2016U.S.
presidentialcampaign.TrumppledgedthattogetherwithPutin
hewouldMakeTyrannyGreatAgain.

TrumpsaidhepickedPutintobehisvicepresidentforhisstrong
approachtodealingwithdissent,flexibleapproachtodemocracy,
ruleoflawandtheConstitution,andhiswillingnesstoregularly
violateothercountriesterritorialintegrityinblatantviolationof
internationallawifitsuitedhisaims.

IthinkIwouldjustgetalongverywellwithVladimirPutin.I
justthinkso.Peoplesaywhatdoyoumean?Ijustthinkwe
would,saidTrump.

PutinreadilyacceptedTrumpsoffertoserveonhisticket,
saying,Hesareallybrilliantandtalentedperson,withouta
doubthestheabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace.

Trumpalsounveiledanewwebsiteforthedictatorial
duo:Trump-Putin2016.com,aswellastheTwitter
feed@TrumpPutin.

ConcernsthataPutinvicepresidencyis,well,illegalarejustsour
grapesfromdummiesnotsmartenoughtothinkofitfirst.

###

Pleaseclickhereifyouwishtounsubscribetotheseemails.

Paidforwithdollars,notrubles,byKasichforAmerica,www.JohnKasich.com

Thismessagewassenttoajfutey@ameritech.netfrom:

TrumpPutin2016|info@johnkasich.com|KasichforAmerica|CapitolSquare,Suite2100,65EastStateStreet|
EmailMarketingby
Columbus,OH43215-4260

Unsubscribe

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at2:28PM
Subject:TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TrumpSeekstoMakeRussiaGreatAgain
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-seeks-to-make-russia-great-again/

DonaldTrumphashiredanattractiveyoungwomantospinthenewsinhisfavor.Butitsadifficultjob,especiallywhenacold-blooded
killerendorsesyourcandidate.OnCNNonThursdaynight,KatrinaPiersonattemptedtosoftentheimpactoftheRussianpresidents
endorsementoforhighpraiseforTrumpforU.S.president.

Thiswasntanendorsement,shesaid.ThiswassimplyjustapowerfulmanrecognizingsomeoneintheUnitedStatesrunningfor
presidentwhoisalsoapowerfulman.Itwasnotanendorsement.

ThatpowerfulmaninRussiaisaformerKGBspywhoseregimeismurderinginnocentpeopleinUkraineandSyria.Itisthesame
regimewhoseterroristsinEasternUkraineshotdownaMalaysianairplaneandkilledalmost300people.

PutinsaidaboutTrump,Heisaveryflamboyantman,verytalented,nodoubtaboutthat...Heistheabsoluteleaderofthepresidential
race,asweseeittoday.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcan
wenotwelcomethat?Ofcoursewewelcomeit.

Itcertainlysoundedlikesomethingapproachinganendorsement.

TrumpprovidedastatementtoABCNewssaying,Itisalwaysagreathonortobesonicelycomplimentedbyamansohighly
respectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.Trumpwenton:IhavealwaysfeltthatRussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldbeableto
workwellwitheachothertowardsdefeatingterrorismandrestoringworldpeace,nottomentiontradeandalloftheotherbenefits
derivedfrommutualrespect.

Highlyrespected?DoesTrumpnotunderstandhowtheKremlinmanipulatesthemediaandeliminatesoppositionpoliticalfiguresand
independentjournalists?

TrumpsreactionwasmoreembarrassingthanthenewsthatBolshevikBernieSanders,whoisrunningfortheDemocraticpresidential
nomination,hadhoneymoonedintheoldSovietUnion.BasedonhispraiseforPutin,whoranoneofthesuccessoragenciestothe
KGBbeforehebecameRussianpresident,Trumpmayturnouttobeanotherbillionairemorecomfortablewiththepoliciesofthe
DemocraticParty.

Duringthe2012campaign,inthefinalpresidentialdebate,RepublicanpresidentialcandidateMittRomneycalledRussiaageopolitical
foe.PresidentObamamockedhim,sayingRomneywasstuckinthepast.TheObama/HillaryClintonpolicywastheRussianre-set,
whichwassupposedtoincreasetradeandpoliticalcooperationwiththePutinregime.Instead,itsetthestageforPutinsinvasionof
Ukraine.Beforethat,in2008,RussiahadinvadeditsformerRepublicofGeorgia.

TrumpseemsnottounderstandhowtheObama/ClintonRussianpolicyfailed.

Inthecurrentcampaign,SenatorMarcoRubio(R-FL)hasbeenstronglycriticalofPutin,callinghimagangsterandanorganized
crimefigurewhocontrolsthegovernmentandalargeterritory.

Thatterritoryisgrowing.

Asabusinessmanhimself,TrumpshouldknowthatpropertyrightsarenotrespectedinRussiaandthatmostoftheimportantbusinessis
concentratedinthehandsofPutinsformerKGBassociatesandcronies.Thatmakeshiscommentsaboutdevelopingatrade
relationshipwithPutinevenmoreincomprehensible.

BusinessmanBillBrowder,whorananinvestmentfundinRussiacalledHermitageCapitalManagement,wasforcedtofleeRussiaafter
hisassetswerestolen.Hislawyer,SergeiMagnitsky,wastorturedandmurdered,andhisdeathhasbecomeaninternationalsymbolof
humanrightsviolationsinRussia.

TheevidenceshowsthatPutinandhisgroupofformerKGBofficersarelootingRussia,consolidatingtheirpower,andeliminating
throughtortureandmurderanyonewhogetsintheirway.Browdersbook,RedNotice,tellsthestoryindetail.Hiswebsite,Russian
Untouchables,namesthenamesoftheRussianofficialsinvolvedinthecase.

AfilmthatwasshownonDecember15attheNewseum,FromRussiawithCash,explainshowRussiangovernmentfiguresseekto
stealandlaundertheirmoneyabroadthroughrealestatetransactionsinvolvingshellcompanies.

PiersontoldCNNthatTrumpsacceptanceofthePutinendorsementwasmadeinthecontextoffightingterrorism,fightingISISinthe
MiddleEast.Shesaid,VladimirPutinhassteppedup.Manypeopledorespecthimforthat,includingAmericanswhomaynotlike
VladimirPutinbuttheylikethefactthathessteppingupandtakingactionagainstISIS.

PiersonisavictimoftheRussianpropagandaoperationsbeingwagedintheU.S.andothercountriesbysuchKremlinoutletsasRussia
Today(RT).

Putinhassteppeduptosavethelong-timeSoviet/RussianclientstateofSyria.Theotherguestontheshow,radiohostBenFerguson,
pointedout,PutinisproppingupAssad.Youshouldunderstandthat,soshouldDonaldTrump.ButTrumpapparentlydoesnot.

Whatsmore,theevidenceindicatesthatPutinsmilitaryhasbeentargetinganti-Assadpro-Westernrebelgroups,notISIS.Infact,
BritishForeignSecretaryPhilipHammondsayspro-AssadmilitarystrikeshaveallowedISIStoseekadvantageontheground.He
said,ThemajorityofRussianairstrikescontinuetotargetSyrianoppositionforces.

ISISitselfhasconfirmedinoneofitsownpublicationsthatRussiaismainlytargetingothergroups,declaringthatRussiaisbombingthe
alliesofAmericaandthatitsinterventioninSyriahasconfusedAmericananalysts,thinktanks,intelligence,andpolicy-makers.

Trumphastobeconsideredintheranksoftheconfused.

InthewakeofTrumpsgaffeduringtherecentdebate,whenhedemonstratedignoranceaboutthenucleartriad,hisacceptanceof
PutinsendorsementmayputthisbusinessmanintheranksofofficialRussiandupes.Ineffect,theleadingGOPpresidentialcandidate
hasbecomecaptivetoMoscowspropaganda.

OncethevotersunderstandhowTrumphasemergedasastoogeofPutininthepresidentialrace,hisdaysasaseriouscandidatewillbe
numbered.

Imlikeareallysmartperson,Trumphassaid.ThisisthecandidatewhoacceptspraisefromVladimirPutinandreturnsthe
compliment,butsayshedoesntwantJebBushsendorsementbecauseheisalowenergypersonandhedoesnotrepresentstrength,
powerandstamina,whicharequalitiesourcountrydesperatelyneeds.

Itmaybetoolate,consideringthedamagehiscommentshavecausedtohiscampaignandreputation,butTrumpoughttodevotesome
ofhisownenergytounderstandinghowtheKremliniswagingawarofpropagandaanddisinformationregardingsubjectslikethewars
inUkraineandSyria.HeshouldalsoreadbusinessmanBillBrowdersbookoncorruptioninRussia.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at1:00PM
Subject:Putin'slies----6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterday'spressconference[Meduza]
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

Putinslies

6ofthemostoutrageousuntruthsfromyesterdayspressconference

11:50,18DECEMBER2015MEDUZA

VladimirPutinspentthreehoursansweringjournalists'questionsyesterdayathisannualpress
conference.Severaltimesduringthatmarathon,heplayedfastandloosewithfactsand
statistics.Meduzahighlightssomeofthemostegregiousuntruths.

Cargotrucksandpassengervehiclespaythesamevehicletax.

InPutin'swords:Amotorvehicletaxisthesameforpassengercarsandtrucksweighing12tonnesor
more.[...]Expertssaythatduringaccelerationandbraking,12-tonnetrucksdomoredamagetotheroad
bedthancars.However,theypaythesameamount.Thisproposalseekstocreatealevelplayingfield
foralltypesoftransport.

Infact:Taxratesfortheownersoftrucksandcarsaredifferent.Bylaw,thefederalgovernmentonly
setstheframeworkforvehicletaxrates,butregionalofficialscanraiseordecreasetheserates.Ifyou
lookatthetaxratessetdownbyregionallaws,it'sclearthatpassengervehiclesandcargotruckspay
differenttaxes.Forexample,inSt.Petersburg,apassengercarbetween100and150horsepowerpays
35rubles,whiletrucksofthesamehorsepowerpay40rubles.Andsometimes,itsohappens,cargo
trucksactuallypaylowertaxesthanordinarycars.
Muscovitescanparkneartheirhomesforfreeandeveryoneissatisfied.

InPutin'swords:Andparkingisfreeforpeoplewholiveinthebuildingsnexttothesecarparks.I
canassureyouthatthecitizensconcerned,theMuscoviteswholivenearthesecarparks,aremorein
favorofthepolicythanagainstit.Thechargesapplytothosewhoarrivefromotherdistrictsorother
regions:fromtheMoscowsuburbsandsoon.
Infact:WillingMuscovitescanobtainaso-calledresidentialpermittoparkforfreeneartheirhomes.
Butthisbenefitappliesonlybetweenthehoursof8p.m.and8a.m.For24-hourparking,you'vegotto
pay3,000rubles($42)ayear.DespitePutin'sconfidencethatMuscovitesaremoreinfavorthan
againsttheparkingfees,arecentLevadaCentersurveyshowsthatonlyintheverycenterofMoscow
doesthepolicyenjoynarrowsupport(57percent),whereasresidentsinMoscow'soutskirtsopposethe
newfees76percentto15percent.Justthispastweek,moreover,roughly1,000demonstratorsgathered
indowntownMoscowtoprotesttheparkingfees,resultinginseveraldetentionsbypolice.
Tatarstancandecideforitselfwhattheheadofitslocalgovernmentiscalled"head"or"president."

InPutin'swords:AsforthepresidentofTatarstan,thereisasayinginRussia:Callmeapotbutheat
menot.ThisisTatarstansbusiness.Idonotthinkthatthisissuchasensitiveissueorthatitcouldhurt
nationalfeelings.YouknowthepeopleintheCaucasusalwaysreactvehementlytoallissuesrelatedto
theirnationalidentity.However,evenChechnyasaid:no,thecountryshouldhaveonlyonepresident,
andwewillnotcalltheheadoftherepublicthisway.ThiswasthechoiceoftheChechenpeople.We
willrespectthechoiceofthepeopleofTatarstan.Itisuptoyoutodecide,allright?
Infact:TheChechenpeopleplayednoroleindecidingwhattocallRamzanKadyrov.(Heusedtobe
therepublic'spresident,whereastodayheistherepublic'shead.)Therewasnoreferendum.The
ChechenparliamentmerelyrenamedKadyrov'spositionatKadyrov'sownrequest,whichwas
promptednotbythewillofthepeople,butKadyrov'sownwhim.(Hedecidedthatonlyonepersonin
Russiashouldbecalledpresident,inagestureofservilitytoPutin.)
TheTatarpeoplearealsounlikelytogetasayinwhattheirrepublic'sleaderiscalled.Thereisa
federallawcomingintoeffectonJanuary1,2016,thatdesignatestheleadersofRussianrepublicsas
headsandnothingmore.Atthispoint,onlythefederalgovernmentcanrollbackthisreform.
Russianofficialsdidn'tknowthatTurkeyopposesthebombingofSyrianTurkmen.

InPutin'swords:Yousee,IhadnotheardabouttheTurkomans(SyrianTurks)before.Iknewthat
TurkmenourTurkmenlivedinTurkmenistan,andsoIwasconfusedNobodytoldusaboutthem.
ButafterweindicatedourwillingnesstocooperateontheissuesthataresensitivetoTurkey,why
didn'ttheyphoneusviathecooperationchannelsbetweenourmilitariestosaythatduringour
discussionsweoverlookedacertainpartoftheborderwhereTurkeyhasvestedinterests.Theycould
haveexpressedtheirconcernsoraskedusnottohitcertainareas.Butnobodysaidanything.
Infact:There'snowaytheRussianauthoritiesdidn'tknowwhoSyrianTurkmenare.TheTurkmenare
anethnicgroupofTurkicheritage,andareconsideredtobethethirdlargestminorityinSyria.Turkey
hastraditionallysupportedtheTurkmen.SeveraldaysbeforeTurkeyshotdownaRussianbomber,
TurkishofficialssummonedtheRussianambassadorandformallyprotestedRussianairstrikesagainst
TurkmensettlementsinSyria.
Foreignersdon'twanttoadoptsickchildren.

InPutin'swords:HereshowwewillworkLetsstartfromthelastpartofyourquestion.Idlike
topointoutthataccordingtostatisticsthenumberofsickchildrenadoptedbyforeignersisfarbelow
thatofhealthyones.Noforeignerhaseverrushedtoadoptoursickchildren.Thisisstatistics.Solets
nothurrytochangethedecisionsthatwevealreadymade.Thisisthefirstthing.

Infact:Statistically,foreignersadoptmorehealthychildrenthansickordisabledchildren,butthisisa
misleadingwayoflookingatthephenomenon,giventhatadoptionsofhealthychildrenarealwaysmore
common,regardlessoffosterparents'origins.In2012,Russianandforeignparentsadopted9,169
children,ofwhomonly200weredisabled.Ofalladoptionsbyforeignparents,disabledchildrenwere
adopted6.6percentofthetime.AmongadoptionsbyRussianparents,however,thatfiguredropsto0.4
percent.Inrawnumbers,Russianfosterparentsadopted29childrenwithdisabilitiesin2012,while
foreignparentsadopted171suchchildren.OneineverytenchildrenadoptedbyAmericanparentsthat
yearwasdisabled.
Russiawon'tlevysanctionsagainstUkraine.

InPutin'swords:WearenotgoingtoimposeanysanctionsonUkraineIwantthistobeheard.We
arejustswitchingtoamost-favored-nationtreatmentintrade.WhichmeansconditionsforUkrainewill
notbeanyworsethanthoseforourotherforeignpartners.

Infact:BeginningonJanuary1,2016,RussiawilllevyagainstUkrainethesamesanctionsitcurrently
hasagainsttheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStates,Canada,andothernationsthathaveplacedsanctions
onRussiaforitsinterventioninCrimea.TheRussiangovernmentdecidedonthesesanctionsagainst
UkrainebackinAugust2015.

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2015/12/18/putin-s-lies

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/19/201508:43:28AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[FRIEVEITEMSTONOTE12-18][WD]EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions.........[WD]Sberbankshares&Russianstockindices
Subject:
collapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt".....[VRT]DownwardSpiral:RussiasOilAddiction,PutinsPoliti...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,December18,20152:57PM
Subject:Fwd:[FRIEVEITEMSTONOTE12-18][WD]EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions.........[WD]Sberbankshares&
RussianstockindicescollapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt".....[VRT]DownwardSpiral:RussiasOilAddiction,PutinsPoliti...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at5:56PM
Subject:[FRIEVEITEMSTONOTE12-18][WD]EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions.........[WD]Sberbankshares
&RussianstockindicescollapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt".....[VRT]DownwardSpiral:RussiasOilAddiction,
PutinsPoliticalSystemMutuallySustaining......[AF]HowRUCouldInstalla'HybridNavalBlockade'AgainstUA
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at3:46PM
Subject:EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>,bohdan.rn@gmail.com

EUdecidestoextendanti-Russiansanctions

18.12.2015|19:41

TheEuropeanUnionhasagreedtoextendsanctionsagainstRussia,accordingtoanUNIANcorrespondent.
REUTERS

"COREPER[ComitedesRepresentantsPermanents,ortheCommitteeofPermanentRepresentativesintheEuropeanUnion]hasagreedto
extendsanctionsagainstRussia,"aEuropeanCouncilrepresentativetoldtheUNIANcorrespondent.

ThedecisionwastakenataCOREPERmeetinginBrusselsonFriday.

ItisexpectedtobeformalizedbywrittenprocedureonMondayandpublishedintheOfficialJournaloftheEuropeanUniononTuesday.

AccordingtoReuters,themeasuresonenergy,bankinganddefencesectorswereprolongeduntiltheendofJuly2016.

ReadmoreonUNIAN:http://www.unian.info/politics/1216837-eu-decides-to-extend-anti-russian-sanctions.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at3:48PM
Subject:Sberbankshares,RussianstockindicescollapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt"
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

Sberbankshares,RussianstockindicescollapseafterUkrainedefaultson"Russiandebt"

18.12.2015|16:40

OnDecember18,SberbanksharesshowedadecreasefollowingUkraine'sstatementonimposingamoratoriumonany
paymentsoftheRussiandebt,includingpaymentofa$3billionloanborrowedunderViktorYanukovych'spresidency.
REUTERS

AccordingtotheMoscowStockExchange,Sberbanksharesfellby3.6%.

Russia'sstockmarketalsoreactedtonewsfromUkraine.

TheMICEXindexdroppedby2.69%to1733.01points.

RTSIndexdippedby3.61%to766.47points.

READALSOUkraineimposesmoratoriumonDec2015Russianeurobond:YatsenyukAsUNIANreportedearlier,Pursuanttothecurrent
legislationanddebtliabilitiesassumed,UkraineannouncedamoratoriumonanypaymentsoftheRussiandebt,includingpaymentof$3
billionborrowedunderViktorYanukovych'spresidencyandwhichreachesmaturityinDecember2015,UkrainianPrimeMinisterArseniy
Yatsenyuksaidduringanextraordinarymeetingofthegovernment.

Totaldebtsubjecttothemoratoriumexceeds$3.58billion.
ReadmoreonUNIAN:http://www.unian.info/economics/1216472-sberbank-shares-russian-stock-indices-collapse-after-ukraine-defaults-
on-russian-debt.html

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at3:46PM
Subject:DownwardSpiral:RussiasOilAddiction,PutinsPoliticalSystemMutuallySustaining
To:<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

News/Europe

Analysts:RussiasOilAddiction,PutinsPoliticalSystem
MutuallySustaining
Print

Comment

Share:
PresidentVladimirPutin,speakingduringhisannualend-of-yearnewsconference,saidRussia'seconomyisshowingsignsofstabilizationdespiteplummetingoil
prices,Moscow,Dec.17,2015.

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DanielSchearf

December18,20151:07PM

MOSCOW

Russia'sleadersoftenvoicetheneedtodiversifytheRussianeconomyawayfromarelianceonthe
exportofrawmaterials,suchasoilandgas,inordertostabilizegrowth.

Revenuesfrompetroleumexportsmakeupalmosthalfthecountry'sfederalbudget.

AthisannualpressbriefingThursday,PresidentVladimirPutinrespondedtoconcernsabout
Russiaseconomy,whichisprojectedtocontractbyaboutabout4percentthisyear,withworldoil
pricesnowbelow$40abarrelandadevaluedcurrency.

Putinrepeatedtheoptimisticoutlookthattheeconomywouldsoonbegintogrow.

Proceedingfromthecurrentvalueofourexports,hesaid,thegovernmentisexpectingour
economytoachieveatleasta0.7percentgrowthin2016,1.9percentin2017and2.4percentin
2018.

ButPutinwentontoclarifythatthoseprojectionswerebasedonoilpricesof$50abarrel.Withthe
priceofoilnowlowerandvolatilityhigh,hesaid,furtheradjustmentswouldhavetobemade.

VladimirMilov,aformerRussiandeputyministerofenergywhonowheadstheDemocraticChoice
politicalparty,saidheexpectedoilpriceswouldcontinuetodrop,withfurthernegative
consequencesforthecountry.
FILE-VladimirMilov,aleaderoftheDemocraticChoiceparty,signsautographsduringarallyofparty'ssupportersinMoscow,June25,

2011.

Theaveragepriceofoilforthenextyear,thewholenextyear,mightbeintherangeof$35to$40,
whichissubstantiallylowerthanforecaststhathavebeenrecentlyincludedintheadoptedbudgetfor
2016,hesaid.So,theywillhavetoconsiderseverelycuttingfederalspending,whichissomething
thathasnotbeendoneoverthewhole16yearsofPutininpower.

Noquickadjustment

Still,Putinsaidthegovernmentwouldnotrushtoadjustthebudget,asthiswouldleadtoa
reductioninthefundingofboththesocialandrealsectors.However,headded,thegovernmentis
ofcourseworkingondifferentdevelopmentscenarios.

Putinrepeatedwell-wornmantrasontheeconomyaboutincreasingproductionandself-sufficiency
whilereducingredtape."Ofcourse,potentialGDPgrowthisnotlimitedtoourexport-related
opportunities,"hesaid."Wemustalsopromoteimportreplacement,whichisnotacure-all,butwe
believethatitwillhelpusretoolalargepartoftheproductionsectorandtheagricultureindustry.

TheRussianpresidentwentontosay:Wemustcertainlycontinueworkingtoimproveeconomic
management,tode-bureaucratizeoureconomy,andtocreatemoreattractiveconditionsfordoing
businessandforhelpingentrepreneursachievethegoalsthatarefacingthemandthenational
economyasawhole.

AccordingtoMilov,Russianpoliticianshavetalkedaboutdiversifyingtheeconomyawayfromoiland
gassincetheSovietera,buttheestablishedelites,especiallyunderPutin,benefittoomuchfromthe
tradetopayattentiontoanythingelse.

Diversificationalsorequiresworkinginstitutionslikeruleoflaw,civilrights,independentjudiciary,
andmanyotherthingswhichthesemineralresourcemafiasareobviouslynotinterestedin,hesaid.
SoIthinkthiswholeideaofdiversificationitsoundsgoodinpublicspeeches,butitstotally
contradictorywiththefundamentalsofthissystem,whichwasbuiltbyVladimirPutin.

So,obviously,economicreformveryquicklyleadstoanenvironmentwherePutinwouldbeonthe
brinkoflosingpoliticalpower,saidMilov.Thisisonemore[reason]toactuallyexpectthathewilltry
tosticktothecurrentsystemtothebitterendandnotletitgo.

RussiaslargestoilandgascompaniesarerunbyPutinsclosefriendsfromhisyearsinSt.
Petersburg:IgorSechiheadsthestateoilcompanyRosneft,whileAlexeyMillerrunsGazprom,
Russia'sstate-controllednaturalgasgiant.Asoilpriceshavetumbled,andRosneftstruggles,
Russiaisconsideringsellinga19percentstakeinthecompany.PutinsaidThursdaythatapartial
privatizationwaspossibleasthestatewouldstillretainmajoritycontrol.

Utilities,gascostmore
Despitethelowerworldoilprices,energycostsinutilitiesandatthegaspumphavegoneupfor
manyRussians,asconsumersarehitwithanunfavorablerubleexchangerate,over12percent
inflationandlowerdisposableincomes.

InthelargestindustrialactiontohitRussiainyears,hundredsoftruckersacrossRussialeda
weeks-longprotestagainsthigherroadtolls,blockinghighwaysandevenroadsleadingintoMoscow.
DespitethenotoriouslypoorqualityofRussia'sroads,thedoublingoftransporttaxesfor12-ton
truckswascriticizednotonlyforpooreconomictiming,butalsobecausethefeesarebeing
enforcedbyacompanycontrolledbyIgorRotenberg,whosefather,oligarchArkadyRotenberg,is
Putinsformerjudopartner.

OnThursday,Putindefendedtheratehikes,sayingthe12-tontruckscausedmoreroaddamage
thanothers.

Furthersocialprotestislikelyascertaingroupsarehitbytheailingeconomyandspendingcuts,
Milovsaid.

Wemightfaceverystrongdifficulties,economically,politically,andsometurbulence,"hesaid."But,
inevitably,IthinkRussiansocietywillrealizethatPutinhasledusintoatrap,andwehaveto
fundamentallychangethecurrentsystemtoachieveabetterfuture.Ithinkmoreandmorepeople
arerealizingthatnow.Itwillbeevenmoresoaseconomicdifficultiesareprogressing.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AndrewFink<finkandrewh@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at3:21PM
Subject:HowRussiaCouldBlockadeUkraine[ED:NavalMoves.....MovesontheBlackSeaShelf......TakingaPage
FromPRC's'SCS'GameBook]
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

QuickScenario:HybridNavalBlockade

HowRussiacouldblockadeUkraine.

CouldRussianirregularscaptureZmiinyiIslandandblockadeUkraine?
RussiaistryingtoseizestillmoreofUkraine,butthistimeatsea.ThecurrentobjectofRussianaggressionistheOdeske
naturalgasfield,locatedintheBlackSeaabout100kmEastoftheUkrainiancoastlineinOdesaOblastandabout120
kmoffshoreofRussian-occupiedCrimea.However,itisconnectedviapipelinetoCrimea,soRussiaisinsistingthatitis
nowRussian.TASSbluntlystatedThedepositsontheBlackSeashelfbecameRussianafterCrimeahadreunitedwith
Russia

GreedisasufficientmotiveforthislatestRussianmove,buttheremayalsobeamilitarylogicatworkhere.Russian
propagandaoutletsarereiteratingthewordsoftheGeneraldirectorofChernomorneftegazIgorShabanovthatRussian
gasrigsintheUkrainianmaritimezoneneedprotectionfromterrorismorUkrainiannavalvessels.Therewasevenan
incidentearlierthisweekwhenaRussianwarshipandaRussiancoastguardshipforcedavesselflyingtheTurkishflag
tochangethe(sic)courseinthedirectionsafeforthetransportconvoy.(TASS)Russiahasalreadyusedthethreatof
forcetomakeavesselchangecourseinUkrainianwaters.

Readmore

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/19/201508:44:47AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
Subject:
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:Put

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,December19,20158:42AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:
Puti...

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:35AM
Subject:Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35132258

Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment

AFPTensionsbetweenRussiaandUkrainehaveincludedargumentsovergassupplies

Ukrainewillnotrepaya$3bndebtowedtoRussiabythisweekend,claimingRussiahasrefusedtoaccept
repaymenttermsalreadyofferedtootherinternationalcreditors.

ThemoratoriummeansthatUkraineislikelytodefaultonthedebt,whichisdueonSunday.

Inaddition,repaymentof$507mofUkrainiancommercialdebtheldbyRussianbankswillalsobehalted.

ThecountrieshavebeenatloggerheadssinceRussiaannexedCrimealastyear.

Ukraine'sPrimeMinister,ArsenyYatseniuk,saidUkrainehadimposedamoratoriumonthepaymentofa$3bn
eurobondheldentirelybyRussia,whichisduetomatureon20December.

Hedidnotsayhowlongthemoratoriumwouldlast.MoscowhadpreviouslysaiditwouldtakeUkrainetocourtifit
didnotpayontime.

Themoratoriumwillbeinplace"untiltheacceptanceofourrestructuringproposalsortheadoptionoftherelevant
courtdecision",MrYatseniuktoldhisgovernment.

"WearepreparedforcourtactionfromtheRussianside."

RelationsbetweenthetwocountrieshavebeentensesinceRussiaannexedtheCrimeanpeninsulain2014.

UkraineandtheWesthavealsoaccusedRussiaofarmingandaidingseparatistrebelsineasternUkraine,allegations
thatRussiahasdenied.

InNovember,RussianenergysupplierGazpromhaltedgassuppliestoUkraine.

OnWednesday,RussiasaiditwouldsuspendatradepactwithUkrainethatwouldexcludethecountryfromafree
tradezonethatincludesformerSovietcountriesfrom1January.

Ukrainesaiditis"readytopaytheprice"tojoinanEUfreetradezonefromthatdate.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:KL
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at7:43AM
Subject:LookatLukashenko[Ed:Lukashenk(a)SeemstoUnderstandPutinBetterThanTrumpDoes]

To:

ttp://belarusdigest.com/story/how-belarus-disappointed-russia-ukraine-and-syria-24066

HowBelarusDisappointedRussiaInUkraineAnd
Syria
SiarheiBohdan18December2015
NewUkrainianArmouredVehicleDesignedwithBelarusHelp.Image:UkraineMinistryofInternalAffairs
Minsk

consistentlyavoidssupportingMoscowinUkraineandSyria.Toputit
mildly.Afterall,on7December,UkrainianInternalMinisterAvakov
inauguratedthenewUkrainianarmouredvehicleVartadesignedin
cooperationwith"Belarusianengineers".

ItbecamejustonemoreofaseriesofexamplesofBelarus-Ukrainian
defencecooperation.Lateron,theBelarusianDefenceMinistry
deniedclaimsthatitsupportedRussia'spositioninthelatter'sdisputewithTurkey.

BelarusrisksestrangingitsRussianally,butnotbecauseitwantstoearnextramoneyin
UkraineorfromconservativeArabregimes.MinskstrivestoimproverelationswithRussia's
opponentsbecausetheKremlinhasshownitselfwillingtomakeradicalforeignpolicymoves.

KremlinTrash:BelarusianarmsforISIS
Lastweek,RussianpropagandaoutletEurasiaDailypublishedacommentarywiththe
eloquenttitleBelarusian'Neutrality'isHypocrisyonSpilledBlood.Itsummarisedaseriesof
articlesinwhichexpertsclosetotheKremlinaccusedBelarusofanti-Russianpoliciesin
UkraineandSyria.
WhenprominentRussianexpertscriticiseMinskinhalfadozenarticlesonEurasiaDailyit
meansthattheKremlinwantsitsBelarusianpartnertounderstandtheseriousnessofthe
accusations.TheleadingexpertonBelarusattheInstituteforStudiesofCISCountries,
AlexanderFadeev,pointedoutthatBelarussuppliedUkrainewithfuel,dual-usegoodsand
componentsforarmssystems.HeemphasisedthatMinskdiditnotonlyforeconomicbut
alsopoliticalreasons:inotherwords,toimproverelationswiththeWest.
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don'tstagea
MaidaninBelarus
On11December,aRussianpoliticalanalystworkingattheprestigiousHigherSchoolof
EconomicscalledAndreiSuzdaltsevdevelopedthisideafurther.Accordingtohim,
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don't
stageaMaidaninBelarus.
RussianpoliticalcommentatorEvgenySatanovskiearlieraccusedBelarusofworkingwith
TurkeyandQataragainstRussiaintheMiddleEast.NowhehastakenhiscriticismofMinskto
theextreme.Accordingtohim,whilepreviouslyRussia'sopponentsintheMiddleEast
QatarandUAEpurchasedarmsforISISinSerbiaandNorthKorea,nowtheydoitmostlyin
Minsk.Satanovskiunderlined,They[ISIS]aregoingtousetheseweapons.Whetheritwillbe
againstus[Russians],Syrians,Iraniansorcivilianswhotheymurderisasecondaryquestion.

CooperationwithUkraine:impossibletohide
RidiculousaccusationsofBelarussellingweaponstoISISwillnotfoolanybody.In,factitis
BelarusianpolicyinUkraineandnotSyriawhichenragesMoscow.AndevidenceofBelarus-
Ukrainiancooperationabounds.AyearagoitseemedthatBelarusmightmerelytake
advantageofthesituationtoearnsomemoneysupplyingUkrainewithwarmaterials.Now,
almosttwoyearsintotheDonbaswar,MinskcontinuestocooperatewithKyiv,provingthatthis
collaborationispartofBelarus'longer-termstrategyintheregion.
Kyiv-basedjournalistIhorTyshkevichhasrecentlypublishedinKhvyliaanewinvestigative
overviewofBelarus-Ukrainiancooperation.HebelievesthatthisyearBelarusianfirmscould
earnabout$90-$100mfrommilitary-relevantdeals(withoutfuel)inUkraine.
Somethingofthisbusinessisevident,liketheriseofBelarus'shareintheUkrainianaircraft
fuelmarketfrom0%beforethewarto45%,orstatisticaldataonbilateraltradewhichshow
transfersofnumerousgoodsforprobablemilitaryuse.

Indeed,whilein2014BelarussoldUkraine$5mworthof
Stugna-Panti-tankguidedmissile

aircraft,inthefirsthalfof2015thisfigureroseto$14.4m.In2015,KyivboughtfromBelarus
specialtrucksworth$1.7m,i.e.,therespectiveexportroseby210%comparedwith2014.
Manypossibleindicatorsofcooperationlackdirectevidence,yetlookconvincing.For
example,TyshkevichpointsoutthattheUkrainianarmyhasstartedtoreceivelargequantities
ofthenewanti-tankmissilesystemStugna.Ukraineproducesonlythemissileusedinthis
system,whiletherestisdeliveredbyMinsk-basedfirmPeleng.

WhyMinskrisksworkingwithKyiv
ThestatisticsshowthatthoughBelarushasearnedsomemoneyfromthesetransactions,this
aloneisnotenoughtobeworththeriskswhichtheseUkrainiandealsposetoBelarus-
Russianrelations.Minskisnotlookingformoney.
MinskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsofMoscowintheregionandbeyond
(firstofalltheEU)
TheRussianexpertsquotedabovegotitright:politicsdeterminesthebehaviourofBelarusian
government.Firstofall,Minskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsof
Moscowintheregionandbeyond(firstofalltheEU)becausethedevelopmentsinCrimea
andtheDonbashaveprofoundlyshockedit.Itisnotsurethatsomethingofthiskindcouldnot
happeninBelarusandislookingeverywhereforpartnerswhowouldhelppreventor,if
necessaryresist,suchaneventuality.

Atthesametime,BelarushasreachedthelimitsofitscooperationwithRussiaassetbythe
Kremlin.Inthefieldofmilitaryindustrialcooperation,Minskhassufferednumerous
disappointments.Forinstance,itsplanstoestablishjointlywithRussiaanassembly
productionofaircraftinBelarusintheearly2010sendedwithnothing.
Earlier,inthelate2000s,BelarusnegotiatedwiththeKremlinevenmorefar-reachingplans
forproducingtopdefenceproductsinBelarus.Amongthemwereshort-rangeballisticmissile
systems(Iskander),surface-to-airmissilesystems(Tor)andlaunchersformobile
intercontinentalballisticmissile(Topol).Tonoavail.

UkrainegivesBelarusmilitarytechnologies
MinskthenpubliclyturnedtoChinaforsomeoftheseopportunities,butalsotoUkraine,
especiallyafterCrimea.Interestingly,theBelarusiangeneralPiatroRahazheuskiwhohad
negotiatedwithMoscowpossibleBelarusianparticipationin
producingIskandersandTorslateronoptedtoworkwithUkrainians.
ThisformerDeputyDefenceMinisterofBelarusandlaterDeputyChairmanoftheState
MilitaryIndustrialCommitteeisnowthedirectoroftheBelarusianofficeoftheUkrainianMotor
SichCompany.MotorSichhasgivenBelarussomethingRussiadenied:theUkrainian
companyestablishedahelicoptersrepairfacilityinOrshaandplanstoextendit.
UkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonlyconcerningaviationbutalsotanksand
missiles
TyshkevichassertsthatUkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonly
concerningaviationbutalsotanksandmissiles.RussianscholarSuzdaltsevonEurasia
Dailyagrees:"LukashenkaistryingtogetfromUkrainethearmswhichRussiatakinginto
accountthenotverytrustingrelationsbetweenMinskandMoscowcannotgivehim."
TyshkevichandSuzdaltsevassumethatUkrainiansmighthaveparticipatedindesigningthe
BelarusianPalanezmultiplelaunchrocketsystem.OfficiallyaBelarus-Chineseproduct,
PalanezshootsfurtherthantheChineseWS-2andWS-3systemswhichpresumablyserved
asprototypesforPalanez.SinceitsfirstpublicdemonstrationinMay,themediahas
speculatedaboutUkrainian(andRussian)involvementindesigningthisweapon.
Allinall,Belarus'contactswiththeUkrainianandArabregimesopposingRussiacannotbe
dismissedastheopportunisticpursuitofeasymoney.Minskdislikesthepoliciesofthe
currentRussiangovernmentwhichthreatentoredrawinternationalborders.Moreover,ithas
realisedthattheKremlintakesitsalliancewithBelarusforgrantedanddoesnotdealwithitas
apartner.

SiarheiBohdanisaResearchDirectorattheOstrogorskiCentre.Heisanalumnusofthe
BelarusStateUniversityandEuropeanHumanitiesUniversityinLithuania.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:50AM
Subject:[HuffPost]RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineToCrucialAid
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russian-airstrikes-humanitarian-crisis-syria_5672ed64e4b0648fe3027fdb

RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineTo
CrucialAid
Everyweek,webringyouoneoverlookedaspectofstoriesthatmadenewsinrecentdays.Didyounoticethe
mediaforgotallaboutanotherstory'sbasicfacts?Tweet@TheWorldPostorletusknowonourFacebook
page.

TheSyrianandRussianairforceshavepoundedasmallstripofrebel-controlledterritorynearSyriasborderwith
Turkeyinrecentweeks,inwhatcouldbeoneofthemostdecisivebattlesinSyriasnearlyfive-yearwar.

Itcouldalso,however,sparkanewhumanitariancrisisinthecountry.TheAzazcorridor,apassagewaythatis5to
15kilometerswideandrunsfromtheTurkishbordertotheSyriancityofAleppo,providesacriticallifelineforaid
andsuppliesforoverhalfamillionSyrians.Inrecentweeks,severalaidgroupshavebeenforcedtosuspendorscale
backoperationsintheareaafterairstrikeshitvehicleconvoysandcivilianinfrastructure.

ThisisthemainroutethroughwhichaidisbroughtintonorthernSyria,saidChristyDelafield,senior
communicationsofficerforhumanitarianaidgroupMercyCorps,whichhadtosuspendcross-borderaidmultiple
timesinrecentweeks.
ASSOCIATEDPRESS

MercyCorps,whichisoneofthemainprovidersoffoodaidinSyria,hasstockpilesofsuppliesinsidethecountry,
butevendistributingthemhasbecomemoredifficultanddangerous.Thesurgeinairstrikesleavespeoplecutoff,
shesaid.

Some600,000people--bothresidentsanddisplacedSyrians--liveintheAzazdistrictandeastAleppo,according
toDoctorsWithoutBorders,whichhadtobrieflysuspenddistributionofreliefintheareaearlierthismonth.

Forpeopleindamagedhomesorwholiveindisplacedshelteringintentedcampswithfewpossessions,thearrival
ofwintermakesthesituationworse,CarlosFrancisco,theheadofmissionforDoctorsWithoutBordersinSyria,
toldTheWorldPost.Itsalsohardforthemtogetmedicalcare,eveninemergencies,hesaid.Mostofthemedical
facilitiesintheareahavebeentargetedatonepointoranotherduringtheSyrianwar.
BARAA
AL-HALABI/AFP/GettyImagesThousandshavegatheredincampsneartheTurkishborder,includingatBabal-
Salam.

RussiahasbeenbombingopponentsofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadindifferentpartsofthecountrysincelate
September.WhiletheKremlininsistsitisonlytargetingextremistgroups,mostRussianairstrikeshavehitareas
controlledbyarangeofoppositiongroups,fromalQaedasSyrianaffiliatetoWestern-backedfighters.

MoscowsinterventionintheSyrianconflicthasheightenedtensionsbetweenRussia,along-standingAssadally,and
countriesthatbacktheSyrianopposition,mostnotablyTurkey.OnNov.24,TurkeyshotdownaRussianjetthat
AnkarasaidhadstrayedovertheSyrianborderintoTurkishterritory.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinvowed
payback.

Inthedaysandweeksthatfollowed,SyrianandRussianairstrikessharplyincreasedinnorthernSyria,accordingto
theUnitedNations'humanitarianagencyOCHA.Theyhitmarketsandbakeries,hospitalsandschools.Dozensof
civiliancasualtieswerereported.

TheairstrikesnudgedclosertoTurkeysborder,strikingrepeatedlyattrucksgatheredintransportationdepotsnear
twobordercrossings--Babal-HawainnorthIdlibandBabal-SalamonthenorthernedgeoftheAzazcorridor.
ResidentsidentifiedsomeofthewarplanesasRussian.

RushavasaldrsnnalevlerierisindebraktyardmTIR'larnaSivilSavunmaekiplerimizmdahale
ediyor.

HH(@ihhinsaniyardim)11:08AM-25Nov2015

FootagefromtheTurkishaidgroupHumanitarianReliefFoundationshowedtrucksburningneartheborder
afterareportedairstrikeinlateNovember.

Thetargetingofroadsandvehiclescausedalarmamonghumanitarianorganizationsthatdependontheroadfrom
TurkeytoAleppotobringfood,fuelandemergencyaidtoSyriancivilians.Aftertheairstrikes,severaltransportation
companiesthatbringaidandothergoodsintothecountrysuspendedsupplyroutes.Severalhumanitarian
organizationshavebeenforcedtohaltorreducetheiractivitiesinthearea,theU.N.agencysaid.
Itissimplynotsafeenoughforourstaff,ourpartnersorthepeopleinneedtohavetheactivitiesgoasnormalduring
thesecircumstances,whereweseearangeofcivilianstructuresandpropertiesbeinghit,saidBendikSrvig,
regionaladviserfortheNorwegianRefugeeCouncil,whichhastemporarilysuspendedactivitiesintheareaduetothe
bombing.TheAzazcorridorhasbeenalifelinetoAleppoandsurroundingareassincetheearlydaysoftheconflict.

TheareahasalsoprovidedsomerefugeforhundredsofthousandsofSyriansdisplacedbyconflictinotherpartsof
thecountry.

Theareahasbeenattackedbefore,butduetoitsproximitytotheTurkishborders,manyhaveconsideredit
relativelysafe,atleastincomparisontotheavailablealternativesacrosstheoppositionheldareas,Srvigsaid.

PAUL
GYPTEAU/AFP/GettyImagesRussia,along-timeAssadally,saysitisfightingextremistgroups,butanalystsand
U.S.officialssaytheyhavetargetedWestern-backedoppositionfighters.

AnalystssaytheSyrianregimeanditsRussianallyhopetocutoffoppositionfightersfromTurkishsuppliesandtake
fullcontrolofthecityofAleppo--thelargestcityinSyriabeforethewar.

Meanwhile,therebels,whoincludeTurkmenrebelssupportedbyTurkeyandanumbrellacoalitioncalledJaishal-
Fatah,areunderattackonallothersides--theKurdishDemocraticUnionPartyinthewest,theself-described
IslamicStatetotheeast,andtheSyrianregimeandalliesinthesouth.

TheAzazcorridorhasbecometheepicenterofthewar,UniversityofLyonassociateprofessorFabriceBalanche
wroteinareportforTheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicylastweek.
TheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy

Thebombsarecomingnearer,andmanySyrianshavenowherelefttoflee.Turkeyofficiallycloseditsborder
crossingswithSyriainMarch,andaccordingtoHumanRightsWatch,hasrecentlycrackeddownonSyrianstrying
toslipacrosstheborderafterpromisingEuropetostemtheflowofmigrantsandrefugeesintothecontinent.

Theresahugeincreaseinciviliancasualties,anewwaveofdisplacement,andwithEuropeanpressureonTurkeyto
keeptheirbordersecure,alotofpeoplefeeltrappedinbetween,Delafieldsaid.

ReadmoreontheconflictinSyria:

-ADefectorSmuggledEvidenceOfMassAtrocitiesOutOfSyria.HereAreTheVictimsStories
-MostDisplacedSyriansAren'tRefugees.They'reTrappedInsideTheCountry
-HauntedByWar,ManySyrianKidsHaveNoPsychologicalSupport.ThisGroupWantsToChangeThat
-Heart-WrenchingVideoShowsChildrenWoundedBySyrianAirstrikes

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at9:18AM
Subject:Re:[JohnDDailyDigest12-18]Fwd:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"......[RUS
C]TrumpDefendsPutinKillingJournalists.......[GJY]UNBELIEVABLE:RussiaCallingShotsonSyriaatUN........[ED:PB
respondstoSYUNMeetingandmore]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

Walter,it'sjusthardtobelieveUkraineisnotinplayinNewYorkthequestionisnot"if"but"how"IfPutinsavesAssad
(whichlooksprettygoodnow),wemaywellfindISIS'snextmovetobeinYemenandSaudiRightnowtheSaudi'saregiving
himabiggerheadachethanUA.HecanalwaysreturnlatertoUA(andmostcertainlywill).Hedoesn'thavetotrytotake
Saudi,justscaretheprincesenoughtoletthepriceofoilfloatbackupenoughtokeephiminbusiness.And,therearelotsof
folksonthissideofthepondwhowouldliketoseetheSaudi'sraisepricesaswell.SowecouldseeacoalitionofUS,RUand
EU(German)businessinterestspushingforashifttowards"makenicetoPutie".Evenifsanctionsremain,ariseinoilprices
wouldgivePutinalotofbreathingroom.Inexchange,hepullsbackhissupportofISISexpansion(thedotsaremurky,but
emerging)and,withoutlosinginSyria,hecanputhisfocusbackonUA.Inthemeantime,hecontinuesfundingandorchestrating
chaosinUARadawithlotsofcashfundingattackdogsonRussianowned/controlledmedia,forgingbizarrepoliticalalliancesto
furtherdiscordandmalignantdezinformtokeepthecatsfighting.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at5:27PM
Subject:ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone

ByJillDoughertyDecember18at12:46PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chess-master-garry-kasparov-equates-putin-with-don-corleone/2015/12/18/79064a58-
8c7e-11e5-baf4-bdf37355da0c_story.html

JillDoughertywasCNNsMoscowbureauchieffrom1997to2005.ShealsoservedasCNNsWhiteHousecorrespondent,
foreignaffairscorrespondentandmanagingeditorforAsia/Pacific.

WhenGarryKasparovwasthechesschampionoftheworld,hehadanickname:thebeastfromBaku,areferencebothtohis
birthplaceintheformerSovietrepublicofAzerbaijanandtohistake-no-prisonersstyleofplaying.

Aggressiveandarrogant,hewasthemasterofattack.In2005,afteratwo-decadecareer,heretiredfromthegametojoin
Russiaspro-democracymovementand,asheexplainsinhisbook,WinterIsComing,topushbackagainsttherisingtideof
repressionscomingfromtheKremlin.

InthisscreedagainstVladimirPutin,Kasparovgoesontheoffensiveoncemore.PutinsRussiaisclearlythebiggestandmost
dangerousthreatfacingtheworldtoday,hewrites.PutinisalostcauseandRussiawillalsobealostcauseuntilheis
gone.Now,withPutinlaunchinganaircampaigninSyria,KasparovrecentlytoldCNN.comthatPutinneedsasteadydietof
escalatingconflict,andheblastedtheWestforplayingthedictatorspurelytacticalgame,andlosing.

Inhisnewbook,Kasparovgoesshockinglyfurther.InhisManicheanuniverse,boththeRussianpresidentandtheIslamicState
terroristorganizationarethreatstothemodernworldyetPutin,heargues,isworsehehasnukestobackhimup.

"WinterIsComing:WhyVladimirPutinandtheEnemiesoftheFreeWorldMustBeStopped"byGarryKasparov(PublicAffairs)

[GarryKasparovonhisnextbookandwhyPutinislikeTywinLannister]

BothPutinandtheIslamicStatearewagingawaronmodernity,KasparovwroteintheWallStreetJournalinJanuary.Putin
longsfortheunlimitedpoweroftheczarstheIslamicStateslashesitswaytowardamedievalcaliphate.BothrejectWestern
values,heargues,andthisisthecommonthreadconnectingthePutinattackonUkraineandthemurderousIslam-derivied
ideologythatfuelsjihadistslikethePariskillers.

WhilethereaderdigeststhisversionofPutintheInternationalTerrorist,Kasparovalsoemploysthewell-worntropeofPutinas
mafiadon.ThebestwaytounderstandtheRussianpresident,hesays,istoreadMarioPuzosGodfathertrilogy,withPutinas
DonVitoCorleone.Insteadofthemafiadonsgamblingandbootlegging,Russiasdictatorialpetro-staterunsonoil,moneyand
power.

Thatcomparisonhasbeenmademanytimesbefore,andotherbooksonPutinhaveanalyzedindetailhissystemofcentralized
control,calledthepowervertical,alongwiththeincestuousrelationshipsbetweengovernmentofficialsandstate-owned
corporations.

KasparovtracesthehighpointsofPutins15years(sofar)inpower,buthisbookofferslittlethatwouldbefreshtomanyreaders.
Insomerespects,thathardlymatters.Kasparovisonadifferentmission:toassessblameandtheresplentytogoaround,
beginningwithwhathecallsthecrimesandmisdemeanorsofPutinspredecessors,SovietPresidentMikhailGorbachevand
Russiasfirstpresident,BorisYeltsin.

CouldRussiasdemocracyactivists,includingKasparov,haveavertedthedownwardspiralthatledtoPutin?No,Kasparovsays
theyneverhadachance.Slandered,physicallyassaulted,harassedbypoliceand,inthecaseofBorisNemtsov,murdered,
Russiasreformers,Kasparovinsists,wereblockedateveryturnfrombuildingamovementthatcouldchallengetheKremlin.

Inhisblack-and-whitetelling,theresnoroomfordeepanalysisofthecriticalquestionofwhyRussiasliberalsfailedtocoalesce.
Insteadtheresjustafleetingreferencetotheirinternalfeuding,whichhedescribesastheYeltsin-eracivilwarmentality.

KasparovreserveshisgreatestirefortheWest,theUnitedStatesand,mostofall,PresidentObamaforwhatheconsiderscraven
panderingtoPutin.Despitetheattemptstorebrandthemethodasengagement,hesneers,thesmellofappeasementis
impossibletomask.

AsRussianwarplanescarryoutbombingmissionsinSyria,theWhiteHousestandsidlyby,KasparovtoldNewsweekinOctober:
TheUnitedStateshasnointerestinstandinguptoVladimirPutinslatestgambitatleastnotinanywaythatwoulddeterhim.

U.S.presidentsinparticular,hesaysinhisbook,alwaysplacedfartoomuchfaithinindividualsinRussia,insteadofsupporting
thestructuralandinstitutionalreformsthatcouldhaveguaranteedthesurvivalofdemocracy.HeevencriticizesColdWarriors
suchasDickCheney,DonaldRumsfeldandCondoleezzaRiceforcavingintotheRussianruler.

KasparovyearnsfortheveritiesoftheColdWar,thetouchstoneofwhatheconsiderstherightwaytodealwithadictatorship:
notjustdefendingvaluesbutprojectingthemaggressively.

Instead,hesays,theWesthascoddledRussia,strokingitsego,treatingitlikethesuperpowertheSovietUnionusedtobe,rather
thanpromotingWesternvaluesanddemandingthatMoscowadheretostandardsofhumanrights.Asaresult,hebelieves,Russia
hasslippedbackintototalitarianism.

Dictatorsonlystopwhentheyarestopped,andappeasingPutinwithUkrainewillonlystokehisappetiteformoreconquests,he
warns.Ukraineisjustonebattlethefreeworldwouldliketoignoreinalargerwaritrefusestoacknowledgeevenexists.

InKasparovsworld,theWestassumesmythic,omnipotentproportions.IgnoringtherolesthatthecrumblingSovieteconomyand
worldoilpricesplayedinthedemiseoftheU.S.S.R.,Kasparovclaimsthatitwasthefreeworldthathadbroughtdownthe
SovietUnion,andthatitwastheWestsindifferenceandfecklessnessthatallowedPutintoputanendtothedemocratic
experimentinRussia.

ThisisanItoldyousobookofthehighestorder.Putinhasthehabitofmakingmeintoanaccurateprophet,Kasparovwrites,
butaverydisappointedRussian.

Thereareplentyofshouldve,wouldve,couldvesinWinterIsComing.Backinthe90s,Kasparovclaims,ifGeorgeW.
Bushsfreedompromotionagendahadexisted,itwouldhavehadatremendouspositiveeffect...whenthebadguyswere
alreadyindisarray.

ButcouldWashingtonhavestoppedthebadguys?Duringtheearly90stheUnitedStateswasmoreconcernedaboutRussia
emergingfromtheashesoftheSovietUnionwithoutacivilwaroranuclearcatastrophethanitwasinscoldingYeltsinforhisanti-
democraticactions,suchascrushingarevoltbyorderingtankstoopenfireontheRussianWhiteHouse.
Real-worlddecisionsbasedonhardchoiceshavenoplaceinKasparovsworld.TheWest,itseems,justhastogrowlatPutinand
hewillstopinhistracks.IntheuniversewhereMcCainispresident,PutindoesnotinvadeUkraine,hesays,withastraightface.

Kasparov,inhisowneyes,isachampionprognosticatoraboutwhatPutinwilltrynextandwhattheWestfearstodotostop
him.

AsinUkraine,hepredictsinhisNewsweekcommentary,PutinwillstayinSyriauntilitnolongersuitshim.Hehasnolong-term
strategicgoalsbeyondcreatingchaosandweakeningthealliancesofthefreeworldwhereverpossible.

Thismaybetrue,butKasparov,throughoutthisbook,seemsmoreexasperatedbytheWestsunwillingnesstorespondthanby
Putinsaggressiveness.

EveryoneistellingmehowrightIwas.But,hecomplains,fewofhisrecommendationshavebeenenacted.SomehowI
managedtounderestimatethecowardiceoftheWesternworldonceagain.

Whatarethoserecommendations?Forgetengagement,Kasparovsays,whetherwithPutinortheIslamicState.Instead,his
prescriptionisback-to-the-future:No,todefeatthemwillrequiretheunityandtheresolveandtheprinciplesthatwontheCold
War.

Kasparovproposesanewalliancefortheworld,withaglobalMagnaCarta,adeclarationoffundamentalrightsrecognizedby
allmembers,whichupholdsandenforcestheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRights.

ButKasparovalsowantsregimechangeinRussia.Stopcoddlingrogueregimesandsponsorsofterror,hesays.Putinsnature
cannotbechanged,andPutincannotbeappeased.Hemustbecontainedandoverthrown.

HeurgesEuropesleaderstostanduptotheKremlinbutalsopredictsthattheWestwillcaveagain.Itsclearatthemoment
thatthedemocraciesofthetwenty-firstcenturyarenotreadyforthisfight,Kasparovsays.Itisstillanopenquestionwhetheror
nottheycanandwillmakethemselvesready.

Fullofgeneralities,sound-bitecallstoactionandcomplaintsabouttheWestsinaction,WinterIsComing,writtenwithMig
Greengard,readsmorelikealongblogpostthanabook.

Missingarethoughtfulexaminationsofnumerousissues,forexample,recognitionofwhattheRussianpeoplethemselvesmightdo
topromotechange.KasparovclaimsthattheonlywayPutinsrulewillendisiftheRussianpeopleandPutinselitesunderstand
theyhavenofutureaslongasheisthere.ButheseemstobelievethatitstheWestsresponsibilitytoconvincethemofthatfact.

Putinisnomasterstrategist,Kasparovscoffs,callinghimanaggressivepokerplayerfacingweakoppositionfromaWestern
worldthathasbecomesoriskaversethatitwouldratherfoldthancallanybluff,nomatterhowgooditscardsare.

TheRussianpeople,however,areinthisgame,too.Somearefoldingtheircardsandfleeingthecountry.Otherskeepplaying,
evenifthedeckisstackedagainstthem.Theoverwhelmingmajority,ifyoubelieveRussianopinionpolls,arestillstickingwiththe
manwhodealsthecards.

Chess,however,isamorecomplexgameofstrategy.Asagrandmaster,Kasparovplayedtowin.Asapro-democracyactivistin
Russia,hescaughtinalosingstreak.HenowlivesinNewYork,afactthatrankles.

IoftensaidthatPutinwasaRussianproblemforRussiatosolve,hewrites,butthathewouldsoonbearegionalproblemand
thenaglobalproblemifhisambitionswereignored,adding:ItiscoldcomforttobetoldYouwereright!

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:09AM
Subject:"IthinkPutinisplayingwith[America]likeaStradivarius-JebBush
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>
JebBush:PutinPlayingAmericaTheWayThatTrumpPlaysThePress

Thisisallagamefortheseguys,BushsaidoftheRussianpresidentsendorsementofhisRepublicanrival.

Dec.18,2015,at12:45p.m.

ChristopherMassie

BuzzFeedNewsReporter

JebBushsaidonThursdaythatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsendorsementofhisopponentDonaldTrumpshowedthatPutin
wasplayingAmericathewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.

TheformerFloridaGov.madethecommentonMichaelMedvedsradioshow,afterthehostaskedhimabouttheRussianleaders
endorsementofBushsGOPrival.

IthinkPutinisplayingwithuslikeaStradivarius,Bushsaid,startingtoapplythesameanalogytoPutinthatheappliedto
Trumpearlierthismonth.Hesplayingus,America,thewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.Thisisallagamefortheseguys.Butwe
haveastakeintheMiddleEast.Wecantpullback.WecantbanallMuslimscomingintoourcountryandexpecttocreatea
coalitionwhichwouldbeessentialforthelong-termstabilityofSyriaandIraq.

BushalsocriticizedwhathecalledTrumpsapparentaffinityforPutin.

Andhisproposalsarejustcrazy,BushsaidofTrump.Imean,tosaythatyougetyourmilitaryadvicefromtheshows.To
suggestthatHillaryClintonwoulddoagoodjobnegotiatingwithIran,betterthananybodyelse.Thesearethethingsthathes
said.HehasastrongfeelingofapparentlyaffinitytowardsVladimirPutin,oneofthegreatdespotsofourtime.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/christophermassie/jeb-bush-putin-playing-america-the-way-that-trump-plays-the#.naWWGxlaA
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/19/201508:44:47AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
Subject:
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:Put

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,December19,20158:42AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[SATMORNINGPOST/EST]UAhalts$3bnRUdebtrepayment....."HowBLDisappointedRUinUAandSY"[INTERESTING
READ].....RUBombingCutsLifelinetoSYCivilianAid.....PBRespondstoSYUNMeeting......KasparovEquatesPutinwithCorleone....Bush:
Puti...

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:35AM
Subject:Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35132258

Ukrainehalts$3bnRussiadebtrepayment

AFPTensionsbetweenRussiaandUkrainehaveincludedargumentsovergassupplies

Ukrainewillnotrepaya$3bndebtowedtoRussiabythisweekend,claimingRussiahasrefusedtoaccept
repaymenttermsalreadyofferedtootherinternationalcreditors.

ThemoratoriummeansthatUkraineislikelytodefaultonthedebt,whichisdueonSunday.

Inaddition,repaymentof$507mofUkrainiancommercialdebtheldbyRussianbankswillalsobehalted.

ThecountrieshavebeenatloggerheadssinceRussiaannexedCrimealastyear.

Ukraine'sPrimeMinister,ArsenyYatseniuk,saidUkrainehadimposedamoratoriumonthepaymentofa$3bn
eurobondheldentirelybyRussia,whichisduetomatureon20December.

Hedidnotsayhowlongthemoratoriumwouldlast.MoscowhadpreviouslysaiditwouldtakeUkrainetocourtifit
didnotpayontime.

Themoratoriumwillbeinplace"untiltheacceptanceofourrestructuringproposalsortheadoptionoftherelevant
courtdecision",MrYatseniuktoldhisgovernment.

"WearepreparedforcourtactionfromtheRussianside."

RelationsbetweenthetwocountrieshavebeentensesinceRussiaannexedtheCrimeanpeninsulain2014.

UkraineandtheWesthavealsoaccusedRussiaofarmingandaidingseparatistrebelsineasternUkraine,allegations
thatRussiahasdenied.

InNovember,RussianenergysupplierGazpromhaltedgassuppliestoUkraine.

OnWednesday,RussiasaiditwouldsuspendatradepactwithUkrainethatwouldexcludethecountryfromafree
tradezonethatincludesformerSovietcountriesfrom1January.

Ukrainesaiditis"readytopaytheprice"tojoinanEUfreetradezonefromthatdate.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:KL
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at7:43AM
Subject:LookatLukashenko[Ed:Lukashenk(a)SeemstoUnderstandPutinBetterThanTrumpDoes]

To:

ttp://belarusdigest.com/story/how-belarus-disappointed-russia-ukraine-and-syria-24066

HowBelarusDisappointedRussiaInUkraineAnd
Syria
SiarheiBohdan18December2015
NewUkrainianArmouredVehicleDesignedwithBelarusHelp.Image:UkraineMinistryofInternalAffairs
Minsk

consistentlyavoidssupportingMoscowinUkraineandSyria.Toputit
mildly.Afterall,on7December,UkrainianInternalMinisterAvakov
inauguratedthenewUkrainianarmouredvehicleVartadesignedin
cooperationwith"Belarusianengineers".

ItbecamejustonemoreofaseriesofexamplesofBelarus-Ukrainian
defencecooperation.Lateron,theBelarusianDefenceMinistry
deniedclaimsthatitsupportedRussia'spositioninthelatter'sdisputewithTurkey.

BelarusrisksestrangingitsRussianally,butnotbecauseitwantstoearnextramoneyin
UkraineorfromconservativeArabregimes.MinskstrivestoimproverelationswithRussia's
opponentsbecausetheKremlinhasshownitselfwillingtomakeradicalforeignpolicymoves.

KremlinTrash:BelarusianarmsforISIS
Lastweek,RussianpropagandaoutletEurasiaDailypublishedacommentarywiththe
eloquenttitleBelarusian'Neutrality'isHypocrisyonSpilledBlood.Itsummarisedaseriesof
articlesinwhichexpertsclosetotheKremlinaccusedBelarusofanti-Russianpoliciesin
UkraineandSyria.
WhenprominentRussianexpertscriticiseMinskinhalfadozenarticlesonEurasiaDailyit
meansthattheKremlinwantsitsBelarusianpartnertounderstandtheseriousnessofthe
accusations.TheleadingexpertonBelarusattheInstituteforStudiesofCISCountries,
AlexanderFadeev,pointedoutthatBelarussuppliedUkrainewithfuel,dual-usegoodsand
componentsforarmssystems.HeemphasisedthatMinskdiditnotonlyforeconomicbut
alsopoliticalreasons:inotherwords,toimproverelationswiththeWest.
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don'tstagea
MaidaninBelarus
On11December,aRussianpoliticalanalystworkingattheprestigiousHigherSchoolof
EconomicscalledAndreiSuzdaltsevdevelopedthisideafurther.Accordingtohim,
LukashenkanotonlyearnsmoneyinUkrainebutalsosaystotheWest:Iamyours,don't
stageaMaidaninBelarus.
RussianpoliticalcommentatorEvgenySatanovskiearlieraccusedBelarusofworkingwith
TurkeyandQataragainstRussiaintheMiddleEast.NowhehastakenhiscriticismofMinskto
theextreme.Accordingtohim,whilepreviouslyRussia'sopponentsintheMiddleEast
QatarandUAEpurchasedarmsforISISinSerbiaandNorthKorea,nowtheydoitmostlyin
Minsk.Satanovskiunderlined,They[ISIS]aregoingtousetheseweapons.Whetheritwillbe
againstus[Russians],Syrians,Iraniansorcivilianswhotheymurderisasecondaryquestion.

CooperationwithUkraine:impossibletohide
RidiculousaccusationsofBelarussellingweaponstoISISwillnotfoolanybody.In,factitis
BelarusianpolicyinUkraineandnotSyriawhichenragesMoscow.AndevidenceofBelarus-
Ukrainiancooperationabounds.AyearagoitseemedthatBelarusmightmerelytake
advantageofthesituationtoearnsomemoneysupplyingUkrainewithwarmaterials.Now,
almosttwoyearsintotheDonbaswar,MinskcontinuestocooperatewithKyiv,provingthatthis
collaborationispartofBelarus'longer-termstrategyintheregion.
Kyiv-basedjournalistIhorTyshkevichhasrecentlypublishedinKhvyliaanewinvestigative
overviewofBelarus-Ukrainiancooperation.HebelievesthatthisyearBelarusianfirmscould
earnabout$90-$100mfrommilitary-relevantdeals(withoutfuel)inUkraine.
Somethingofthisbusinessisevident,liketheriseofBelarus'shareintheUkrainianaircraft
fuelmarketfrom0%beforethewarto45%,orstatisticaldataonbilateraltradewhichshow
transfersofnumerousgoodsforprobablemilitaryuse.

Indeed,whilein2014BelarussoldUkraine$5mworthof
Stugna-Panti-tankguidedmissile

aircraft,inthefirsthalfof2015thisfigureroseto$14.4m.In2015,KyivboughtfromBelarus
specialtrucksworth$1.7m,i.e.,therespectiveexportroseby210%comparedwith2014.
Manypossibleindicatorsofcooperationlackdirectevidence,yetlookconvincing.For
example,TyshkevichpointsoutthattheUkrainianarmyhasstartedtoreceivelargequantities
ofthenewanti-tankmissilesystemStugna.Ukraineproducesonlythemissileusedinthis
system,whiletherestisdeliveredbyMinsk-basedfirmPeleng.

WhyMinskrisksworkingwithKyiv
ThestatisticsshowthatthoughBelarushasearnedsomemoneyfromthesetransactions,this
aloneisnotenoughtobeworththeriskswhichtheseUkrainiandealsposetoBelarus-
Russianrelations.Minskisnotlookingformoney.
MinskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsofMoscowintheregionandbeyond
(firstofalltheEU)
TheRussianexpertsquotedabovegotitright:politicsdeterminesthebehaviourofBelarusian
government.Firstofall,Minskstrivestomaintainandimproverelationswithopponentsof
Moscowintheregionandbeyond(firstofalltheEU)becausethedevelopmentsinCrimea
andtheDonbashaveprofoundlyshockedit.Itisnotsurethatsomethingofthiskindcouldnot
happeninBelarusandislookingeverywhereforpartnerswhowouldhelppreventor,if
necessaryresist,suchaneventuality.

Atthesametime,BelarushasreachedthelimitsofitscooperationwithRussiaassetbythe
Kremlin.Inthefieldofmilitaryindustrialcooperation,Minskhassufferednumerous
disappointments.Forinstance,itsplanstoestablishjointlywithRussiaanassembly
productionofaircraftinBelarusintheearly2010sendedwithnothing.
Earlier,inthelate2000s,BelarusnegotiatedwiththeKremlinevenmorefar-reachingplans
forproducingtopdefenceproductsinBelarus.Amongthemwereshort-rangeballisticmissile
systems(Iskander),surface-to-airmissilesystems(Tor)andlaunchersformobile
intercontinentalballisticmissile(Topol).Tonoavail.

UkrainegivesBelarusmilitarytechnologies
MinskthenpubliclyturnedtoChinaforsomeoftheseopportunities,butalsotoUkraine,
especiallyafterCrimea.Interestingly,theBelarusiangeneralPiatroRahazheuskiwhohad
negotiatedwithMoscowpossibleBelarusianparticipationin
producingIskandersandTorslateronoptedtoworkwithUkrainians.
ThisformerDeputyDefenceMinisterofBelarusandlaterDeputyChairmanoftheState
MilitaryIndustrialCommitteeisnowthedirectoroftheBelarusianofficeoftheUkrainianMotor
SichCompany.MotorSichhasgivenBelarussomethingRussiadenied:theUkrainian
companyestablishedahelicoptersrepairfacilityinOrshaandplanstoextendit.
UkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonlyconcerningaviationbutalsotanksand
missiles
TyshkevichassertsthatUkrainehelpsBelaruswithexpertiseandtechnology,notonly
concerningaviationbutalsotanksandmissiles.RussianscholarSuzdaltsevonEurasia
Dailyagrees:"LukashenkaistryingtogetfromUkrainethearmswhichRussiatakinginto
accountthenotverytrustingrelationsbetweenMinskandMoscowcannotgivehim."
TyshkevichandSuzdaltsevassumethatUkrainiansmighthaveparticipatedindesigningthe
BelarusianPalanezmultiplelaunchrocketsystem.OfficiallyaBelarus-Chineseproduct,
PalanezshootsfurtherthantheChineseWS-2andWS-3systemswhichpresumablyserved
asprototypesforPalanez.SinceitsfirstpublicdemonstrationinMay,themediahas
speculatedaboutUkrainian(andRussian)involvementindesigningthisweapon.
Allinall,Belarus'contactswiththeUkrainianandArabregimesopposingRussiacannotbe
dismissedastheopportunisticpursuitofeasymoney.Minskdislikesthepoliciesofthe
currentRussiangovernmentwhichthreatentoredrawinternationalborders.Moreover,ithas
realisedthattheKremlintakesitsalliancewithBelarusforgrantedanddoesnotdealwithitas
apartner.

SiarheiBohdanisaResearchDirectorattheOstrogorskiCentre.Heisanalumnusofthe
BelarusStateUniversityandEuropeanHumanitiesUniversityinLithuania.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at8:50AM
Subject:[HuffPost]RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineToCrucialAid
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russian-airstrikes-humanitarian-crisis-syria_5672ed64e4b0648fe3027fdb

RussianAirstrikesCutOffSyrians'LifelineTo
CrucialAid
Everyweek,webringyouoneoverlookedaspectofstoriesthatmadenewsinrecentdays.Didyounoticethe
mediaforgotallaboutanotherstory'sbasicfacts?Tweet@TheWorldPostorletusknowonourFacebook
page.

TheSyrianandRussianairforceshavepoundedasmallstripofrebel-controlledterritorynearSyriasborderwith
Turkeyinrecentweeks,inwhatcouldbeoneofthemostdecisivebattlesinSyriasnearlyfive-yearwar.

Itcouldalso,however,sparkanewhumanitariancrisisinthecountry.TheAzazcorridor,apassagewaythatis5to
15kilometerswideandrunsfromtheTurkishbordertotheSyriancityofAleppo,providesacriticallifelineforaid
andsuppliesforoverhalfamillionSyrians.Inrecentweeks,severalaidgroupshavebeenforcedtosuspendorscale
backoperationsintheareaafterairstrikeshitvehicleconvoysandcivilianinfrastructure.

ThisisthemainroutethroughwhichaidisbroughtintonorthernSyria,saidChristyDelafield,senior
communicationsofficerforhumanitarianaidgroupMercyCorps,whichhadtosuspendcross-borderaidmultiple
timesinrecentweeks.
ASSOCIATEDPRESS

MercyCorps,whichisoneofthemainprovidersoffoodaidinSyria,hasstockpilesofsuppliesinsidethecountry,
butevendistributingthemhasbecomemoredifficultanddangerous.Thesurgeinairstrikesleavespeoplecutoff,
shesaid.

Some600,000people--bothresidentsanddisplacedSyrians--liveintheAzazdistrictandeastAleppo,according
toDoctorsWithoutBorders,whichhadtobrieflysuspenddistributionofreliefintheareaearlierthismonth.

Forpeopleindamagedhomesorwholiveindisplacedshelteringintentedcampswithfewpossessions,thearrival
ofwintermakesthesituationworse,CarlosFrancisco,theheadofmissionforDoctorsWithoutBordersinSyria,
toldTheWorldPost.Itsalsohardforthemtogetmedicalcare,eveninemergencies,hesaid.Mostofthemedical
facilitiesintheareahavebeentargetedatonepointoranotherduringtheSyrianwar.
BARAA
AL-HALABI/AFP/GettyImagesThousandshavegatheredincampsneartheTurkishborder,includingatBabal-
Salam.

RussiahasbeenbombingopponentsofSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadindifferentpartsofthecountrysincelate
September.WhiletheKremlininsistsitisonlytargetingextremistgroups,mostRussianairstrikeshavehitareas
controlledbyarangeofoppositiongroups,fromalQaedasSyrianaffiliatetoWestern-backedfighters.

MoscowsinterventionintheSyrianconflicthasheightenedtensionsbetweenRussia,along-standingAssadally,and
countriesthatbacktheSyrianopposition,mostnotablyTurkey.OnNov.24,TurkeyshotdownaRussianjetthat
AnkarasaidhadstrayedovertheSyrianborderintoTurkishterritory.RussianPresidentVladimirPutinvowed
payback.

Inthedaysandweeksthatfollowed,SyrianandRussianairstrikessharplyincreasedinnorthernSyria,accordingto
theUnitedNations'humanitarianagencyOCHA.Theyhitmarketsandbakeries,hospitalsandschools.Dozensof
civiliancasualtieswerereported.

TheairstrikesnudgedclosertoTurkeysborder,strikingrepeatedlyattrucksgatheredintransportationdepotsnear
twobordercrossings--Babal-HawainnorthIdlibandBabal-SalamonthenorthernedgeoftheAzazcorridor.
ResidentsidentifiedsomeofthewarplanesasRussian.

RushavasaldrsnnalevlerierisindebraktyardmTIR'larnaSivilSavunmaekiplerimizmdahale
ediyor.

HH(@ihhinsaniyardim)11:08AM-25Nov2015

FootagefromtheTurkishaidgroupHumanitarianReliefFoundationshowedtrucksburningneartheborder
afterareportedairstrikeinlateNovember.

Thetargetingofroadsandvehiclescausedalarmamonghumanitarianorganizationsthatdependontheroadfrom
TurkeytoAleppotobringfood,fuelandemergencyaidtoSyriancivilians.Aftertheairstrikes,severaltransportation
companiesthatbringaidandothergoodsintothecountrysuspendedsupplyroutes.Severalhumanitarian
organizationshavebeenforcedtohaltorreducetheiractivitiesinthearea,theU.N.agencysaid.
Itissimplynotsafeenoughforourstaff,ourpartnersorthepeopleinneedtohavetheactivitiesgoasnormalduring
thesecircumstances,whereweseearangeofcivilianstructuresandpropertiesbeinghit,saidBendikSrvig,
regionaladviserfortheNorwegianRefugeeCouncil,whichhastemporarilysuspendedactivitiesintheareaduetothe
bombing.TheAzazcorridorhasbeenalifelinetoAleppoandsurroundingareassincetheearlydaysoftheconflict.

TheareahasalsoprovidedsomerefugeforhundredsofthousandsofSyriansdisplacedbyconflictinotherpartsof
thecountry.

Theareahasbeenattackedbefore,butduetoitsproximitytotheTurkishborders,manyhaveconsideredit
relativelysafe,atleastincomparisontotheavailablealternativesacrosstheoppositionheldareas,Srvigsaid.

PAUL
GYPTEAU/AFP/GettyImagesRussia,along-timeAssadally,saysitisfightingextremistgroups,butanalystsand
U.S.officialssaytheyhavetargetedWestern-backedoppositionfighters.

AnalystssaytheSyrianregimeanditsRussianallyhopetocutoffoppositionfightersfromTurkishsuppliesandtake
fullcontrolofthecityofAleppo--thelargestcityinSyriabeforethewar.

Meanwhile,therebels,whoincludeTurkmenrebelssupportedbyTurkeyandanumbrellacoalitioncalledJaishal-
Fatah,areunderattackonallothersides--theKurdishDemocraticUnionPartyinthewest,theself-described
IslamicStatetotheeast,andtheSyrianregimeandalliesinthesouth.

TheAzazcorridorhasbecometheepicenterofthewar,UniversityofLyonassociateprofessorFabriceBalanche
wroteinareportforTheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicylastweek.
TheWashingtonInstituteforNearEastPolicy

Thebombsarecomingnearer,andmanySyrianshavenowherelefttoflee.Turkeyofficiallycloseditsborder
crossingswithSyriainMarch,andaccordingtoHumanRightsWatch,hasrecentlycrackeddownonSyrianstrying
toslipacrosstheborderafterpromisingEuropetostemtheflowofmigrantsandrefugeesintothecontinent.

Theresahugeincreaseinciviliancasualties,anewwaveofdisplacement,andwithEuropeanpressureonTurkeyto
keeptheirbordersecure,alotofpeoplefeeltrappedinbetween,Delafieldsaid.

ReadmoreontheconflictinSyria:

-ADefectorSmuggledEvidenceOfMassAtrocitiesOutOfSyria.HereAreTheVictimsStories
-MostDisplacedSyriansAren'tRefugees.They'reTrappedInsideTheCountry
-HauntedByWar,ManySyrianKidsHaveNoPsychologicalSupport.ThisGroupWantsToChangeThat
-Heart-WrenchingVideoShowsChildrenWoundedBySyrianAirstrikes

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at9:18AM
Subject:Re:[JohnDDailyDigest12-18]Fwd:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"......[RUS
C]TrumpDefendsPutinKillingJournalists.......[GJY]UNBELIEVABLE:RussiaCallingShotsonSyriaatUN........[ED:PB
respondstoSYUNMeetingandmore]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

Walter,it'sjusthardtobelieveUkraineisnotinplayinNewYorkthequestionisnot"if"but"how"IfPutinsavesAssad
(whichlooksprettygoodnow),wemaywellfindISIS'snextmovetobeinYemenandSaudiRightnowtheSaudi'saregiving
himabiggerheadachethanUA.HecanalwaysreturnlatertoUA(andmostcertainlywill).Hedoesn'thavetotrytotake
Saudi,justscaretheprincesenoughtoletthepriceofoilfloatbackupenoughtokeephiminbusiness.And,therearelotsof
folksonthissideofthepondwhowouldliketoseetheSaudi'sraisepricesaswell.SowecouldseeacoalitionofUS,RUand
EU(German)businessinterestspushingforashifttowards"makenicetoPutie".Evenifsanctionsremain,ariseinoilprices
wouldgivePutinalotofbreathingroom.Inexchange,hepullsbackhissupportofISISexpansion(thedotsaremurky,but
emerging)and,withoutlosinginSyria,hecanputhisfocusbackonUA.Inthemeantime,hecontinuesfundingandorchestrating
chaosinUARadawithlotsofcashfundingattackdogsonRussianowned/controlledmedia,forgingbizarrepoliticalalliancesto
furtherdiscordandmalignantdezinformtokeepthecatsfighting.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Fri,Dec18,2015at5:27PM
Subject:ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>

ChessmasterGarryKasparovequatesPutinwithDonCorleone

ByJillDoughertyDecember18at12:46PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/chess-master-garry-kasparov-equates-putin-with-don-corleone/2015/12/18/79064a58-
8c7e-11e5-baf4-bdf37355da0c_story.html

JillDoughertywasCNNsMoscowbureauchieffrom1997to2005.ShealsoservedasCNNsWhiteHousecorrespondent,
foreignaffairscorrespondentandmanagingeditorforAsia/Pacific.

WhenGarryKasparovwasthechesschampionoftheworld,hehadanickname:thebeastfromBaku,areferencebothtohis
birthplaceintheformerSovietrepublicofAzerbaijanandtohistake-no-prisonersstyleofplaying.

Aggressiveandarrogant,hewasthemasterofattack.In2005,afteratwo-decadecareer,heretiredfromthegametojoin
Russiaspro-democracymovementand,asheexplainsinhisbook,WinterIsComing,topushbackagainsttherisingtideof
repressionscomingfromtheKremlin.

InthisscreedagainstVladimirPutin,Kasparovgoesontheoffensiveoncemore.PutinsRussiaisclearlythebiggestandmost
dangerousthreatfacingtheworldtoday,hewrites.PutinisalostcauseandRussiawillalsobealostcauseuntilheis
gone.Now,withPutinlaunchinganaircampaigninSyria,KasparovrecentlytoldCNN.comthatPutinneedsasteadydietof
escalatingconflict,andheblastedtheWestforplayingthedictatorspurelytacticalgame,andlosing.

Inhisnewbook,Kasparovgoesshockinglyfurther.InhisManicheanuniverse,boththeRussianpresidentandtheIslamicState
terroristorganizationarethreatstothemodernworldyetPutin,heargues,isworsehehasnukestobackhimup.

"WinterIsComing:WhyVladimirPutinandtheEnemiesoftheFreeWorldMustBeStopped"byGarryKasparov(PublicAffairs)

[GarryKasparovonhisnextbookandwhyPutinislikeTywinLannister]

BothPutinandtheIslamicStatearewagingawaronmodernity,KasparovwroteintheWallStreetJournalinJanuary.Putin
longsfortheunlimitedpoweroftheczarstheIslamicStateslashesitswaytowardamedievalcaliphate.BothrejectWestern
values,heargues,andthisisthecommonthreadconnectingthePutinattackonUkraineandthemurderousIslam-derivied
ideologythatfuelsjihadistslikethePariskillers.

WhilethereaderdigeststhisversionofPutintheInternationalTerrorist,Kasparovalsoemploysthewell-worntropeofPutinas
mafiadon.ThebestwaytounderstandtheRussianpresident,hesays,istoreadMarioPuzosGodfathertrilogy,withPutinas
DonVitoCorleone.Insteadofthemafiadonsgamblingandbootlegging,Russiasdictatorialpetro-staterunsonoil,moneyand
power.

Thatcomparisonhasbeenmademanytimesbefore,andotherbooksonPutinhaveanalyzedindetailhissystemofcentralized
control,calledthepowervertical,alongwiththeincestuousrelationshipsbetweengovernmentofficialsandstate-owned
corporations.

KasparovtracesthehighpointsofPutins15years(sofar)inpower,buthisbookofferslittlethatwouldbefreshtomanyreaders.
Insomerespects,thathardlymatters.Kasparovisonadifferentmission:toassessblameandtheresplentytogoaround,
beginningwithwhathecallsthecrimesandmisdemeanorsofPutinspredecessors,SovietPresidentMikhailGorbachevand
Russiasfirstpresident,BorisYeltsin.

CouldRussiasdemocracyactivists,includingKasparov,haveavertedthedownwardspiralthatledtoPutin?No,Kasparovsays
theyneverhadachance.Slandered,physicallyassaulted,harassedbypoliceand,inthecaseofBorisNemtsov,murdered,
Russiasreformers,Kasparovinsists,wereblockedateveryturnfrombuildingamovementthatcouldchallengetheKremlin.

Inhisblack-and-whitetelling,theresnoroomfordeepanalysisofthecriticalquestionofwhyRussiasliberalsfailedtocoalesce.
Insteadtheresjustafleetingreferencetotheirinternalfeuding,whichhedescribesastheYeltsin-eracivilwarmentality.

KasparovreserveshisgreatestirefortheWest,theUnitedStatesand,mostofall,PresidentObamaforwhatheconsiderscraven
panderingtoPutin.Despitetheattemptstorebrandthemethodasengagement,hesneers,thesmellofappeasementis
impossibletomask.

AsRussianwarplanescarryoutbombingmissionsinSyria,theWhiteHousestandsidlyby,KasparovtoldNewsweekinOctober:
TheUnitedStateshasnointerestinstandinguptoVladimirPutinslatestgambitatleastnotinanywaythatwoulddeterhim.

U.S.presidentsinparticular,hesaysinhisbook,alwaysplacedfartoomuchfaithinindividualsinRussia,insteadofsupporting
thestructuralandinstitutionalreformsthatcouldhaveguaranteedthesurvivalofdemocracy.HeevencriticizesColdWarriors
suchasDickCheney,DonaldRumsfeldandCondoleezzaRiceforcavingintotheRussianruler.

KasparovyearnsfortheveritiesoftheColdWar,thetouchstoneofwhatheconsiderstherightwaytodealwithadictatorship:
notjustdefendingvaluesbutprojectingthemaggressively.

Instead,hesays,theWesthascoddledRussia,strokingitsego,treatingitlikethesuperpowertheSovietUnionusedtobe,rather
thanpromotingWesternvaluesanddemandingthatMoscowadheretostandardsofhumanrights.Asaresult,hebelieves,Russia
hasslippedbackintototalitarianism.

Dictatorsonlystopwhentheyarestopped,andappeasingPutinwithUkrainewillonlystokehisappetiteformoreconquests,he
warns.Ukraineisjustonebattlethefreeworldwouldliketoignoreinalargerwaritrefusestoacknowledgeevenexists.

InKasparovsworld,theWestassumesmythic,omnipotentproportions.IgnoringtherolesthatthecrumblingSovieteconomyand
worldoilpricesplayedinthedemiseoftheU.S.S.R.,Kasparovclaimsthatitwasthefreeworldthathadbroughtdownthe
SovietUnion,andthatitwastheWestsindifferenceandfecklessnessthatallowedPutintoputanendtothedemocratic
experimentinRussia.

ThisisanItoldyousobookofthehighestorder.Putinhasthehabitofmakingmeintoanaccurateprophet,Kasparovwrites,
butaverydisappointedRussian.

Thereareplentyofshouldve,wouldve,couldvesinWinterIsComing.Backinthe90s,Kasparovclaims,ifGeorgeW.
Bushsfreedompromotionagendahadexisted,itwouldhavehadatremendouspositiveeffect...whenthebadguyswere
alreadyindisarray.

ButcouldWashingtonhavestoppedthebadguys?Duringtheearly90stheUnitedStateswasmoreconcernedaboutRussia
emergingfromtheashesoftheSovietUnionwithoutacivilwaroranuclearcatastrophethanitwasinscoldingYeltsinforhisanti-
democraticactions,suchascrushingarevoltbyorderingtankstoopenfireontheRussianWhiteHouse.
Real-worlddecisionsbasedonhardchoiceshavenoplaceinKasparovsworld.TheWest,itseems,justhastogrowlatPutinand
hewillstopinhistracks.IntheuniversewhereMcCainispresident,PutindoesnotinvadeUkraine,hesays,withastraightface.

Kasparov,inhisowneyes,isachampionprognosticatoraboutwhatPutinwilltrynextandwhattheWestfearstodotostop
him.

AsinUkraine,hepredictsinhisNewsweekcommentary,PutinwillstayinSyriauntilitnolongersuitshim.Hehasnolong-term
strategicgoalsbeyondcreatingchaosandweakeningthealliancesofthefreeworldwhereverpossible.

Thismaybetrue,butKasparov,throughoutthisbook,seemsmoreexasperatedbytheWestsunwillingnesstorespondthanby
Putinsaggressiveness.

EveryoneistellingmehowrightIwas.But,hecomplains,fewofhisrecommendationshavebeenenacted.SomehowI
managedtounderestimatethecowardiceoftheWesternworldonceagain.

Whatarethoserecommendations?Forgetengagement,Kasparovsays,whetherwithPutinortheIslamicState.Instead,his
prescriptionisback-to-the-future:No,todefeatthemwillrequiretheunityandtheresolveandtheprinciplesthatwontheCold
War.

Kasparovproposesanewalliancefortheworld,withaglobalMagnaCarta,adeclarationoffundamentalrightsrecognizedby
allmembers,whichupholdsandenforcestheUniversalDeclarationofHumanRights.

ButKasparovalsowantsregimechangeinRussia.Stopcoddlingrogueregimesandsponsorsofterror,hesays.Putinsnature
cannotbechanged,andPutincannotbeappeased.Hemustbecontainedandoverthrown.

HeurgesEuropesleaderstostanduptotheKremlinbutalsopredictsthattheWestwillcaveagain.Itsclearatthemoment
thatthedemocraciesofthetwenty-firstcenturyarenotreadyforthisfight,Kasparovsays.Itisstillanopenquestionwhetheror
nottheycanandwillmakethemselvesready.

Fullofgeneralities,sound-bitecallstoactionandcomplaintsabouttheWestsinaction,WinterIsComing,writtenwithMig
Greengard,readsmorelikealongblogpostthanabook.

Missingarethoughtfulexaminationsofnumerousissues,forexample,recognitionofwhattheRussianpeoplethemselvesmightdo
topromotechange.KasparovclaimsthattheonlywayPutinsrulewillendisiftheRussianpeopleandPutinselitesunderstand
theyhavenofutureaslongasheisthere.ButheseemstobelievethatitstheWestsresponsibilitytoconvincethemofthatfact.

Putinisnomasterstrategist,Kasparovscoffs,callinghimanaggressivepokerplayerfacingweakoppositionfromaWestern
worldthathasbecomesoriskaversethatitwouldratherfoldthancallanybluff,nomatterhowgooditscardsare.

TheRussianpeople,however,areinthisgame,too.Somearefoldingtheircardsandfleeingthecountry.Otherskeepplaying,
evenifthedeckisstackedagainstthem.Theoverwhelmingmajority,ifyoubelieveRussianopinionpolls,arestillstickingwiththe
manwhodealsthecards.

Chess,however,isamorecomplexgameofstrategy.Asagrandmaster,Kasparovplayedtowin.Asapro-democracyactivistin
Russia,hescaughtinalosingstreak.HenowlivesinNewYork,afactthatrankles.

IoftensaidthatPutinwasaRussianproblemforRussiatosolve,hewrites,butthathewouldsoonbearegionalproblemand
thenaglobalproblemifhisambitionswereignored,adding:ItiscoldcomforttobetoldYouwereright!

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sat,Dec19,2015at11:09AM
Subject:"IthinkPutinisplayingwith[America]likeaStradivarius-JebBush
To:1WalterZarycky<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,1WolodymyrZarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,WalterDerzko
<wderzko@pathcom.com>
JebBush:PutinPlayingAmericaTheWayThatTrumpPlaysThePress

Thisisallagamefortheseguys,BushsaidoftheRussianpresidentsendorsementofhisRepublicanrival.

Dec.18,2015,at12:45p.m.

ChristopherMassie

BuzzFeedNewsReporter

JebBushsaidonThursdaythatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsendorsementofhisopponentDonaldTrumpshowedthatPutin
wasplayingAmericathewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.

TheformerFloridaGov.madethecommentonMichaelMedvedsradioshow,afterthehostaskedhimabouttheRussianleaders
endorsementofBushsGOPrival.

IthinkPutinisplayingwithuslikeaStradivarius,Bushsaid,startingtoapplythesameanalogytoPutinthatheappliedto
Trumpearlierthismonth.Hesplayingus,America,thewaythatTrumpplaysthepress.Thisisallagamefortheseguys.Butwe
haveastakeintheMiddleEast.Wecantpullback.WecantbanallMuslimscomingintoourcountryandexpecttocreatea
coalitionwhichwouldbeessentialforthelong-termstabilityofSyriaandIraq.

BushalsocriticizedwhathecalledTrumpsapparentaffinityforPutin.

Andhisproposalsarejustcrazy,BushsaidofTrump.Imean,tosaythatyougetyourmilitaryadvicefromtheshows.To
suggestthatHillaryClintonwoulddoagoodjobnegotiatingwithIran,betterthananybodyelse.Thesearethethingsthathes
said.HehasastrongfeelingofapparentlyaffinitytowardsVladimirPutin,oneofthegreatdespotsofourtime.

http://www.buzzfeed.com/christophermassie/jeb-bush-putin-playing-america-the-way-that-trump-plays-the#.naWWGxlaA
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 12/18/201502:42:41PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:jesuis......

Yes,willreadthisweekend.

From:Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Date:Friday,December18,20155:41PM
To:DavidKramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Re:jesuis......

http://www.baks.bund.de/sites/baks010/files/working_paper_12_2015.pdf

SentfrommyiPad

OnDec18,2015,at5:26PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

From:AndrewWood<andrewood40@gmail.com>
Date:Friday,December18,20156:03AM
To:JamesNixey<jnixey@chathamhouse.org>,LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>,DavidKramer
<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Fwd:jesuis......

Perfect.AlsojesuisBlatter,Trumpetc.

Andrew
SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Date:18December2015at10:18:46GMT
To:Phil<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>,StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,teagueeliza
<teagueeliza@aol.com>,KlausSegbersFU<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,BoboLo
<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,CarolinaVendilPallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,Roderic&Mandy
Lyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,JulianCooper
<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,RichardConnolly
<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>,RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,JohnBesemeres
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Cc:FriedErc<ercfried@aol.com>,SergeyKun<ksy1956@gmail.com>
Subject:jesuis......
<CWXk8naWUAAkQEd.jpg>
From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 12/18/201502:26:36PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: FW:jesuis......

From:AndrewWood<andrewood40@gmail.com>
Date:Friday,December18,20156:03AM
To:JamesNixey<jnixey@chathamhouse.org>,LiliaShevtsova<liliashevtsova@gmail.com>,DavidKramer
<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Fwd:jesuis......

Perfect.AlsojesuisBlatter,Trumpetc.

Andrew
SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Date:18December2015at10:18:46GMT
To:Phil<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>,StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,teagueeliza
<teagueeliza@aol.com>,KlausSegbersFU<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,
CarolinaVendilPallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,Roderic&MandyLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,Rodric
Braithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,JulianCooper<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>,SilvanaMalle
<silvana.malle@univr.it>,RichardConnolly<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>,RobertHorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,
JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Cc:FriedErc<ercfried@aol.com>,SergeyKun<ksy1956@gmail.com>
Subject:jesuis......
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/18/201509:10:06AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"themoscowetimes.ccom,12/18VIDEO

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,December18,20159:10AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:Thefermentgrows:"AngryRussianBUSINESSMENturnonKremlin,"themoscowetimes.ccom,12/18VIDEO

WhenRussianentrepreneurDmitryPOTAPENKOexplodedinrageattheMoscowEconomicForum
hecouldnothaveknownthathewouldbecomeanInternetsensation.Yetheisnotsurprised.Idid
whateveryonedreamsofdoingthemselves,hesaid.ThebusinessmenPotapenko,hisneighborat
theforumroundtable,farmbossPavelGrudinin,andCrimeanzoodirectorOlegZubkovtogether
gatheredmorethan2million[!]hitsonYouTubewithvideosofspeecheslambastingtheauthorities.

And:AscandalattheFIRSTCHANNELPeoplesartistV.NAZAROVquitstheFirstChannelsCouncil
andinanopenlettertotheCouncilschairmanTabakovblaststhecontentofwhatthechannel
broadcasts:http://nev25.blogspot.com/2015/12/blogpost_760.html?spref=fb

Nazarov:Iunderstandthatunderconditionswhenthereisnocivilsociety[inRussia]theexistenceof
RTissenselessandevenharmfulsinceitisascreencoveringupthefactthatthereisnodemocracyin
RussiaInthecountrytherearemorehomelesschildrenthanduringthewaraccordingtosome
statistics.ORTkeepssilent.Thestandardoflivingiscatastrophicallydeclining;teachers,doctors,
workersgooutonthestreetsinprotest.ORTkeepssilence

And:TRUMPdefendsPutinkillingjournalists:U.S.killspeople,too,thedailybveast.com,12/18

And:NancyYouseff,PENTAGONofficers:WequitifTrumpwins,thedailybeast.com,12/18

And:ThefermentspreadstoregionalassembliesInKRASNOYARSKmembersoftheopposition
partiesKPRF,LDPRandAJustRussiacomeoutinoppositionagainsttheexistingauthorities:
http://krasw.mk.ru/print/article/1354630/

And:InaninterviewwithNovayaGazetaformerdeputyministerofenergyVladimirMILOVtermsthe
Russianeconomyagigantichippopotamuswithoutwings:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/71220.html?print=1

And:EUtoprolongSANCTIONSagainstRussia,themoscowtimes.com,12/18

And:StrikingtruckersassailPutinsdismissaloftheiraction(VIDEOofthetruckersspeaking):
http://tvrain.ru/new2sw/nalog400319/

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 12/17/201504:08:56PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[BlindLeadingBlind???OrCorruptLeadingCorrupt????]Fwd:HILL/JUSTIN:JUSTIN:Trumpcalls"highlyrespected"Putin'sendorsement
Subject:
"agreathonor".......[AMUSTSEE,MUSTTRANSLATE,MUSTDISSEMINATEFwd:HromadskeTV:Firtash,MohylevychandT...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Thursday,December17,20153:26PM
Subject:Fwd:[BlindLeadingBlind???OrCorruptLeadingCorrupt????]Fwd:HILL/JUSTIN:JUSTIN:Trumpcalls"highlyrespected"
Putin'sendorsement"agreathonor".......[AMUSTSEE,MUSTTRANSLATE,MUSTDISSEMINATEFwd:HromadskeTV:Firtash,
MohylevychandT...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Thu,Dec17,2015at6:23PM
Subject:[BlindLeadingBlind???OrCorruptLeadingCorrupt????]Fwd:HILL/JUSTIN:JUSTIN:Trumpcalls"highly
respected"Putin'sendorsement"agreathonor".......[AMUSTSEE,MUSTTRANSLATE,MUSTDISSEMINATEFwd:
HromadskeTV:Firtash,MohylevychandTymoshenkoallyinSwedishgasdealMisenEnergy/Karpatygaz[Through
Mohylevych...roadsleadtoPutin&Co.]........PutinsaysF