WORKSHEET 1 ON INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Problem 4-4-----------Page 155

A well known soft drinks company decides to alter the formula of its oldest and most popular product. How might probabili
be involved in such a decision?

Self Check Exercises: SC 4-1, SC 4-2Page 156

Problem 4-5
Which of the following are pairs of mutually exclusive events in the drawing of one card from a deck of 52 cards?
a) A heart and a Queen
b) A club and a Red Card
c)An even number and a Spade
d)An Ace and an Even Number
Which of the following are pairs of mutually exclusive events in the rolling of two dice?
a) A total of 5 points and a 5 on one die
b) A total of 7 points and an even number of points on both dice
c) A total of 8 points and an odd number of points on booth dice
d)Aa total of 9 points and a 2 on one die
e) A total of 10 points and a 4 on on die.

Consider a stack of 9 cards, all spades numbered 2 through 10, and a die.Give a collectively exhaustive list of all the
possible outcomes of rolling the die and picking one card.How many elements are there in the sample space?
Problem 4-7

Problem 4-8
Consider the stack of cards and the die discussed in problem 4-7. Give the probability for each of the following totals
in the sum of the roll of the die and the value of the card drawn
2 3 8 9 12 14 16

Problem 4-9-------------------------------Practice Problem

Self-Check Exercises-- SC 4-3 and SC 4-4-------------------Page 162

Problem 4-11
a) Determine the probabilities of the following events in drawing a card from a standard deck of 52 cards:
a) A Seven 0.07692308
b) A Black Card 0.5
c) An Ace or a King 0.15384615
d) A black two or a black three 0.07692308
e) A red face card(king, queen or jack) 0.11538462
What type of probability estimates are these?

Problem 4-13
Below is a frequency distribution of annual sales commissions from a survey of 300 media salespeople
Annual Commission($) Frequency Based on this information what is the probability that a m
0-4999 15 a) between $ 5000 and $ 10000
5000-9999 25 b) less than $ 15000
10000-14999 35 c) more than $ 20000
15000-19999 125 d) between $15,000 and $ 20,000
20000-24999 70
25000+ 30
Total 300

Problem 4-15
The office manager of an insurance company has the following data on the functioning of the copiers in the office:
Copier Days Days out
functioning of service What is the probability that a copier is out of se
1 209 51
2 217 43 0.107692
3 258 2
4 229 31
5 247 13
1160 140

Self-Check Exercises
SC 4-5 and SC 4-6---------------------------------------Page 169
Basic Concepts
Problem 4-17

Problem 4-18

Problem 4-20
An employee at Infotech must enter product information into the computer. The employee may use a light pen that transmit
keyboard to issue commands or fill out a bubble sheet and feed it directly into the old mainframe.Historically we know the f
P(Light Pen will fail)= 0.025 P(pass) 0.975
P( PC keyboard will fail)= 0.15 0.85
P(Light Pen and PC keyboard will fail)= 0.005 0.995
P(Mainframe will fail)= 0.25 0.75
Data can be entered into the PC only if both the light pen and keyboard are functioning.
a) What is the probability that the employee can use the PC to enter data? 0.83
b) What is the probability that either the PC or the mainframe fails? 0.42
Assume they both cannot fail at the same time.
ROBABILITY

oduct. How might probability theory Find how many people like it or not. Then, you'll rate it against competition
Then analyze

eck of 52 cards?

ustive list of all the

mple space?

the following totals

at is the probability that a media salesman makes a commission
0.083333
0.25
0.333333
0.416667

piers in the office:

lity that a copier is out of service?

use a light pen that transmits the information to the PC along with the
e.Historically we know the following probabilities:

Probability of employee can use PC 0.17

st competition
 WORKSHEET 2: ON INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY UNDER STATISTICAL INDEPENDENCE & MISC PROBLEMS

Self-Check Exercises
Problem SC 4-7 & Problem SC 4-8------------------------Refer Page 177

Problem 4-23
What is the probability that a couple's second child will be:
(a) A boy, given that their first child was a girl? 0.5
(b)A girl, given that their first child was a boy? 0.5

Problem 4-25
A bag contains 32 marbles: 4 are red, 9 are black, 12 are blue, 6 are yellow and 1 is purple. 4
Marbles are drawn one at a time with replacement. What is the probability that:
(a)The second marble is yellow given that the first one was yellow? 0.1875
(b) The second marble is yellow given that the first one was red? 0.1875
( c) The third marble is purple given that both the first and second were purple? 0.03125

Problem 4-27
The Health Department routinely conducts 2 independent inspections of each restaurant, with the restaurant passing only i
passes only 2 % of restaurants that actually do have health code violations. Inspector B is less experienced and passes 7% of
(a) Inspector A passes a restaurant , given that Inspector B has found a violation? 2%
(b) Inspector B passes a restaurant with violation, given that Inspector A passes it? 7%
( c) A restaurant with a violation is passed by the Health Department? 0.1400%

Problem 4-28
The 4 Floodgates of a small Hydroelectric Dam fail and are repaired independently of each other. From experience it is know
(a) If flood gate 1 is out of order, what is the probability that floodgates 2 & 3 are out of order?
(b)During a Tour of the Dam, you are told that the chances of all 4 floodgates being out of order are less than 1 in 5,000,000.

Problem 4-30
A grocery store is reviewing its restocking policies and has analyzed the number of half-gallon containers of orange juice sold

Number Sold Morning Afternoon Evening (a) What is the probability

0-19 3 8 2 in the evening is between 8
20-39 3 4 3 (b)What is the probability
40-59 12 6 4 ( c) What is the probability
60-79 4 9 9 morning?
80-99 5 3 6
100 or more 3 0 6
30 30 30

Problem 4-31
Bill has just installed 4 billboards on a highway outside of town.He knows from experience the probabilities that each will be
chosen motorist. Noticed Not noticed
The probability of the first billboard being noticed by a motorist is 0.75 0.75 0.25
The probability of the second billboard being noticed by a motorist is 0.82 0.82 0.18
The probability of the third billboard being noticed by a motorist is 0.87 0.87 0.13
The probability of the fourth billboard being noticed is 0.90 0.9 0.1
Assume that the event that a motorist notices any particular billboard is independent of whether or not he notices the other
What is the probability that
(a) All 4 billboards will be noticed by a randomnly chosen motorist? 0.481545
(b) The first and fourth, but not the second and third billboards will be noticed? 0.015795
( c) Exactly one of the billboards will be noticed? 0.0136
(d) None of the Billboards will be noticed?
(e) The third and fourth billboards will not be noticed? 0.013

EXT1-MISC PROBLEM
A survey of magazine subscribers showed that 45.8% rented a car during the past 12 months for business reasons, 54% rente
for personal reasons and 30% rented a car during the past 12 months for both business and personal reasons
a) What is the probability tht a subscriber rented a car during the past 12 months for business or personal reasons?
b) What is the probability that a subscriber did not rent a car during the past 12 months for either business or personal reaso
NCE & MISC PROBLEMS

9 12 6 1 32

he restaurant passing only if both inspectors pass it. Inspector A is very experienced, and hence
perienced and passes 7% of restaurants with violations. What is the probability that:
A B
Pass (with violation) 2% 7%

From experience it is known that each floodgate is out of order 4 % of the time.
0.0016 i.e 4% of 2 and 4% of 3
are less than 1 in 5,000,000. Is this statement true? 0.00000256 0

ntainers of orange juice sold each day for the past month. The Data are given below:-

(a) What is the probability that on a randomnly selected day the number of cartons of orange juice sold
in the evening is between 80 and 99? 0.2
(b)What is the probability that 39 or fewer cartons were sold during a randomnly selected afternoon? 0.4
( c) What is the probability that either 0-19 or 100 or mmore cartons were sold in a randomnly selected
0.2

0.481545 0.675 0.0136 0.000585 0.013

robabilities that each will be noticed by a randomnly

 Not noticed
A
B
C
D
r or not he notices the others.

business reasons, 54% rented a car during the past 12 months 45.80% 54% 30%
onal reasons business personal both
personal reasons? 0.69
er business or personal reasons? 0.31
 WORKSHEET 3: ON INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY UNDER STATISTICAL DEPENDENCE

Self-Check Exercises
Problem SC 4-9 & Problem SC 4-10------------------------Refer Page 186

Problem 4-32
2 events A and B are statistically dependent. If P(A)=0.39, P(B)= 0.21 & P(A or B)= 0.47, find the probability that:
(a) Neither A nor B will occur 0.53
(b)Both A and B will occur 0.13 As P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B
( C) B will occur given that A has occurred 0.3333333333 P(AB)/P(A)
(d) A will occur given that B has occurred 0.619047619 P(AB) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A

Problem 4-35
At a soup kitchen, a social worker gathers the following data. Of those visiting the kitchen, 59% are men, 32% are alcoholics,
alcoholics. What is the probability that a random male visitor to the kitchen is an alcoholic? P(male alcohol/men)
0.355932
Problem 4-36
During a study of auto accidents, the Highway Safety Council found that 60% of all accidents occur at night, 52% are alcohol
night and are alcohol related.
(a) What is the probability that an accident was alcohol related, given that it occurred at night?
(b)What is the probability that an accident occurred at night, given that it was alcohol related?

Problem 4-37
If a Hurricane forms in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico, there is a 76% chance that it will strike the western coast of Flo
gathered over the past 50 years, it has been determined that the probability of a hurricane's occurring in this area in any giv
(a) What is the probability that a hurricane will occur in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and strike Florida this year?
(b) If a hurricane in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico is seeded, its possibility of striking Florida's west coast is reduced by one-four
If it is decided to seed any hurricane in the eastern gulf, what is the new value for the probability in part (a)
0.5525
Problem 4-39
A Company is considering upgrading its computer system and the major portion of the upgrade is a new operating system. T
an Engineer for an evaluation of the operating system. Assume the probability of a favourable evaluation is 0.65.
If the probability the Company will upgrade its system given a favorable evaluation is 0.85 what is the probability that the C
will upgrade and receive a favorable evaluation?

Problem 4-40: Home Work Practice Problem

Problem 4-42
NHB has been entrusted with the responsibility of sending good quality mangoes to overseas. For this purpose an inspection
10,000 boxes of mangoes from Malihabad and Hyderabad for exports. The inspection of boxes gave the following informatio
Number of Boxes with a) What are the chances that a sel
No: of Boxes Damaged fruit Over-ripe fruit b) A randomnly selected box conta
Malihabad 6000 200 840 come from Hyderabad?
Hyderabad 4000 365 295 (Note: Damaged fruit and overripe
10000 565 1135
Problem 4-43 : Home Work Practice Problem

EXT-1
In a Survey of MBA students, the following data were obtained on students first reason for application to the school in which th

matriculated. School Cost

School Quality or Convenience Other Totals a) Develop a Joint Proba
Full Time 421 393 76 890 b)Use the marginal prob
Part Time 400 593 46 1039 or convenience and oth
821 986 122 1929 reason for choosing a sc
c)If a student goes full ti
is the first reason for ch
d)If a student goes part
quality is the first reaso
e)Are the events that a
quality as the first reaso
Justify your answer?
 AL DEPENDENCE

bability that: 0.39 0.21 0.47

As P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P (AB)

P(AB) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A or B)

men, 32% are alcoholics, and 21% are male

P(male alcohol/men)

at night, 52% are alcohol related and 37% occur at

0.616667
0.711538

e the western coast of Florida. From the data 0.76 P(Florida/gulf)

ing in this area in any given year is 0.85 0.85
da this year? 0.646
ast is reduced by one-fourth. 0.57
0.4845

0.85 P(Upgrade/evaluation)
new operating system. The Company has asked
uation is 0.65. 0.5525 Ans
the probability that the Company

his purpose an inspection is conducted on

the following information:
are the chances that a selected box will contain damaged or overripe fruit? Damaged/over ripe 1700
omnly selected box contains overripe fruit, what is the probability that it has
m Hyderabad? 0.0295 0.259912
amaged fruit and overripe are mutually exclusive events)
n to the school in which they

a) Develop a Joint Probability Table for these Data?

b)Use the marginal probabilities of school quality,school cost
or convenience and other to comment on the most important
reason for choosing a school
c)If a student goes full time what is the probability that school quality
is the first reason for choosing a school? 0.473034
d)If a student goes part time what is the probability that school
quality is the first reason for choosing a school? 0.384986
e)Are the events that a student is full time and the student lists
quality as the first reason for applying independent events.
Justify your answer?
0.17
 WORKSHEET ON REVISING PRIOR ESTIMATES OF PROBABILITIES: BAYES THEOREM

Refer SELF- CHECK EXERCISES---------------PROBLEMS SC 4-11 & SC 4-12

Problem 4-45
Martin Coleman,credit manager for Beck's, knows that the company uses 3 methods to encourage collection of delinquent a
collection records, he learns that 70% of the accounts are called on personally, 20% are phoned and 10% are sent a letter. Th
collecting an overdue amount from an account with the 3 methods are 0.75, 0.60 and 0.65 respectively. Mr. Coleman has jus
from a past due account. What is the probability that this account
a) Was called on personally?
b) Received a phone call?
c)Received a Letter?

Problem 4-47
EconOcon is planning a company picnic. The only thing that will cancel the picnic is a thunderstorm. The Weather Service ha
conditions with probability 0.2 , moist conditions with probability 0.45, and wet conditions with probability 0.35. If the prob
thunderstorm given dry conditions is 0.3, given moist conditions is 0.6 and given wet conditions is 0.8 what is the probability
If we know the picnic was indeed cancelled, what is the probability moist conditions were in effect?

Problem 4-48

An independent research group has been studying the chances that an accident at a nuclear power plant will result in a radia
The group considers that the only possible types of accidents at a reactor are fire, mechanical failure, and human error and t
accidents never occur together. It has performed studies that indicate that if there were a fire, a radiation leak would occur 2
If there were a mechanical error, a radiation leak would occur 50% of the time and if there were a human error a radiation le
10% of the time. Its studies have also shown that:-
A fire and a radiation leak occuring together is 0.0010
A mechanical failure and a radiation leak occuring together is 0.0015
A Human Error and a Radiation Leak occuring together is 0.0012
a) What are the respective probabilties of a fire, mechanical failure and human error?
b)What are the respective probabilities that a radiation leak was caused by a fire, mechanical failure and human error?
c)What is the probability of a radiation leak?
urage collection of delinquent accounts. From past
ed and 10% are sent a letter. The probabilities of
spectively. Mr. Coleman has just received payment

rstorm. The Weather Service has predicted dry

with probability 0.35. If the probability of a
ons is 0.8 what is the probability of a thunderstorm?

power plant will result in a radiation leakage.

l failure, and human error and that 2 or more
e, a radiation leak would occur 20% of the time.
ere a human error a radiation leak would occur

l failure and human error?