Daily DAX Consensus for NFP is a -70K change, with the range being between -150K to zero.

K to zero. Private payrolls are expected to

. increase by 100K, with the range being 50K to 140K. The unemployment rate is expected to tick up to 9.6%, with
Journal the range being 9.3% to 9.7%. Despite widespread cynicism about the numbers, everyone loves Freaky Friday.
06 Aug 2010 Range studies: Aggressive 154.5; conservative 104.5; H 6445/50 L 6220 Calendar: GE industrial production, US employment

DAX 30min Friday, 06 August 2010 Aggressive range H

At the moment, the bias for European stocks is up before the
US employment data. Given the tight ranges during the past Trade a bounce above 6380,
few days and the tension around the jobs data this week, I targeting 6420.
expect the DAX to gap up at least 15 points, fill, and then
continue. However that doesn't mean I have a backup plan in Conservative range H
case it falls...I didn't get a chance to enter a trade on Thursday
as the market never traded to levels where I was willing to do
business.

High Extreme: 6496 (agg rng est, 138% fib ext)

High primary: 6445 (cons rng est, 123% fib ext)
Low primary: 6220 (7d POC, key fib retr, rng supt)
Low Extreme: 6190 (key fib retr, 6d bucket supt)

3POC
My confidence in this range projection is not high. The market
has been consolidating and a break is due. Given the season,
the data, and the recent ranges, the statistical measures I use
are not as effective -- if they are effective at all. I will need to
see decisive price action after the data release. In any event, HVN
should be a good day for scalps.
HVN

Conservative range L

7POC

Aggressive range L

Trade a bounce below 6330,

targeting 6285.

Friday's focus: No trading until 30 minutes after the NFP release. The market will be all but dead beforehand, so no scalping
either. After the release, if the market comes to my price points and in the way I have planned for, I will take the trade. Meaning,
if the market does not break, retrace and bounce where I am willing to do business, I will not chase after it. In addition, I have to
see responsive buying or selling at or near my price points in order to get a good risk profile.

Trade ideas:
Long -- Trade a bounce above 6375, targeting 6420. Trail thereafter.
Short -- Trade a bounce below 6330, targeting 6285. Trail thereafter.

The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.
 Range Studies for DAX 0910 Friday, 06 August 2010
Previous day range 63.5 Comments:
Previous day pattern NR 0536 GMT: DAX continues to lose volume on average. The 3 day figure is the lowest it's been
in several months, but that isn't unusual for August. Similar story for the 3 day range. Probes
Number of occurrences 97 and rotations, however, have remained consistent at 20 to 40 points. The timing has been
(last 200 days) tricky and the direction unpredictable...but that isn't unusual for me either.
Avg range after WS 139.3%
> 88.5 <
Prob of expansion → 66.0% Prob of contraction → 19.6% Prob of duplication → 14.4%
Projected expansion 104.5 Projected contraction 47.5 Projected duplication 63.0
( 164.6% ) ( 74.7% ) ( 99.0% )
Daily range studies Volume studies Time, price and event
3 days 73.3 Value area high 6358.0 Aggressive range est. 154.5
10 days 99.0 Point of control 6344.0 Conservative range est. 104.5
20 days 111.1 Value area low 6333.5 Aggressive range H 6496.5
50 days 122.0 Opening range 9.0 Conservative range H 6446.5
10 day max range 157.5 Initial balance 18.0 Today's H range est. 6445.0
10 day min range 47.5 R2 high vol node 6344.0 0.70 Today's L range est. 6220.0
3/10 0.74 R1 high vol node 6280.0 0.80 Conservative range L 6237.5
10 day true high 6387.5 Pvt high vol node 6220.0 1.00 Aggressive range L 6187.5
5 day true high 6387.5 S1 high vol node 6178.0 1.20 3 day range pivot 6320.0
Yesterday's high 6387.5 S2 high vol node 6107.0 0.85 02 Sep 08 high 6566.0
Yesterday's low 6324.0 3D VAH 6384.0 02 August high 6376.5
5 day true low 6063.0 3D VPOC 6344.0 15 July swing high 6264.5
10 day true low 6063.0 3D VAL 6300.0 20 July swing low 5911.5
Yesterday's settlement 6342.0 3 day vol avg 109.2 GE industrial production Med
Previous settlement 6342.5 10 day vol avg 122.5 US unemployment Jul High
10 day range position 0.86 20 day vol avg 125.6

Calendar GMT Area Event Mkt Risk Exp Prev Remarks

Friday 0400 UK NIESR GDP estimate Jul Ccy Med 0.7 GBP pairs
06 August 0545 CH Unemployment rate Jul Ccy Med 3.7 CHF pairs
0830 UK PPI Jul YoY, MoM Ccy Med 10.7 GBP pairs, likely priced in
Industrial production Jun YoY Ccy Med 2.6 See above
Manufacturing production Jun YoY Ccy Med 4.3 See above
1000 GE Industrial production Jun YoY C/E Med 12.4 DAX, euro pairs, likely priced in
1100 CA Unemployment rate Jul C/E High 7.9 ES, DX, CAD pairs, watch Ivey later
1230 US Unemployment rate Jul C/E High 9.5 All instruments, watch NFP change

Comments and suggestions welcome -- and insults as long as they are clever.
See contact info below.

This is a work in progress. If you would like to Jay Schneider -- FX and futures, range studies
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Email
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The Lonely Trader

Disclaimer: All information is provided as market commentary and not as investment or trading advice. The Lonely Trader
expressly disclaims liability, without limitation, for losses or damages resulting from reliance on such information. Past
results are no guarantee of future performance. Please consult a registered financial advisor before risking your capital.