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The meaning

of Macron
by Charles Grant

Emmanuel Macron is a man of courage. During the first of his two visits
to the CER, in November 2014, he said that France was divided between
conservatives and reformers, rather than left and right, and that the Socialist
Party could disappear. We are more likely to get reform if moderate
socialists join the centrists and the moderate centre-right, he said. That was
a bold comment from the economy minister in a Socialist government.
Macron left the government in August 2016, just Macron is young, fresh and charismatic, and a
after founding a movement called En Marche! great communicator. And like Blair, he reaches
Since declaring himself a candidate for the voters who would not normally support a pro-EU,
presidency in November, he has been lucky: the pro-immigration economic liberal.
Socialist Party chose the hard-left Benot Hamon
as its candidate; the Gaullist candidate, Franois A Macron victory would break the political mould
Fillon, has been damaged by stories of his family of the Fifth Republic. Since 1958 France has been
being paid for fake jobs; and the veteran centrist ruled by presidents who hail from the mainstream
Franois Bayrou has thrown his weight behind parties of left or right. No centrist has ever reached
Macron. Opinion polls put this 39-year old ingnu the Elyse. In 1995, opinion polls suggested that
whose political experience is just two years as an Delors would have won, if he had stood, though
Elyse adviser and two years as a minister ahead he would have been the Socialists candidate. If
in the second round of the presidential election. Macron wins, he will do so as an overt centrist
without a traditional party machine.
Macron is in some ways the heir of both Jacques
Delors and Tony Blair, two convinced pro- Economically, a Macron presidency would offer
Europeans who backed pragmatic and fairly France a real opportunity to reform. Nicolas Sarkozy
Image: Taken liberal versions of social democracy. Like Delors and Franois Hollande achieved a few useful
at the CERs who went into politics to work for a Gaullist reforms but did not do enough. Fifteen years ago,
roundtable on prime minister, Jacques Chaban-Delmas, and later French and German per capita incomes were at
Brexit and the became a Socialist finance minister Macron is a similar level, but the average German now has
future of the a political outsider who is neither left nor right. an income 17 percent higher. Unemployment in
EU, London, He has worked for the civil service, for Jacques France is nearly 10 per cent, against 4 per cent in
September 9th Attalis commission on how to reform France and Germany and youth unemployment of 25 per
2016. for the Rothschild bank. Like Blair in his heyday, cent is among the worst in Europe.
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CER BULLETIN
ISSUE 113 | APRIL/MAY 2017 3

This economic dcrochage (uncoupling) office (see Christian Odendahls article in this
between France and Germany reinforced bulletin) they will not be able to ignore the
by Angela Merkels strength as a leader, and orthodox views of many Germans.
Hollandes weakness matters for the EU.
German policy-makers have lost their trust in But for all these difficulties, a Macron presidency
and respect for Frances rulers, and the Franco- would surely revitalise the Franco-German
German tandem, which once drove the EU tandem. Germany does not like leading the
forward, has lost momentum. EU on its own. In recent years France has been
too weak to be a suitable partner and the UK
Macron wants reforms to both pep up Frances has been distracted by Brexit. Meanwhile Italy,
economy and strengthen his position in Spain and Poland have had neither the desire
Europe. He wants to lower the states share of nor the capability to help Germany lead Europe.
economic output from 55 percent of GDP So Germany will jump at the chance of working
the highest in Europe to 52 percent, and to with a France that has an energetic, pro-EU
respect the EUs 3 percent budget deficit rule. president, on issues such as defence, foreign
But he also wants to invest 50 billion over policy and refugees.
five years on modernising the state and on
training (especially for unemployed youths). Despite many links to the UK the Financial
He plans to give France a Nordic-style labour Times and the Economist are among his cheer-
market, with active labour market policies leaders Macron takes a hard line on Brexit.
and benefits dependent on participation in Like Hollande and Merkel, he does not want
training programmes; collective bargaining EU-phobes like Marine Le Pen to be able to profit
decentralised from industry level to company from Brexit by demonstrating that a country
level; and a reduction of taxes on employment. can leave and then thrive. He believes that
maintaining the strength and resilience of the
The French president holds huge powers, so EU is more important than maximising economic
Macron should in theory be able to reform ties with the UK. But he is also keen to maintain
the country, if he wishes. But in practice, all close bilateral ties on defence and security.
presidents have found reform difficult to pull off.
As Macron discovered when he was a minister, Though opinion polls put Macron ahead of both
vested interests, trade unions and party activists Le Pen and Fillon, he will find the final weeks of
are stubborn and conservative. He managed to the campaign gruelling. He has never before run
liberalise coach services, shopping hours and the for elected office. Russias media are recycling
legal profession, but wanted to do much more. nasty rumours about his private life. Le Pen will
do her best to portray Macron as a rich, out-of-
Macron will need progress on reform in order touch, Brussels-loving, globalist banker. All his
to energise his EU strategy. Only if he can get opponents will say with some justification
the French economy growing more rapidly that he is the candidate of the establishment of
while respecting EU budget rules does the now discredited Socialist Party.
he have a chance of persuading Germany to
do two things: first, rebalance its economy This year, many lazy commentators have joined
by boosting investment, consumption and up the dots of Brexit, Trump and continental
imports, thereby aiding the weaker members populists to predict the demise of liberalism,
of the eurozone; and, second, back his plans internationalism and the EU. A Macron victory
for eurozone governance. He wants a eurozone would suggest they are wrong; political trends
budget, overseen by a eurozone parliament and are seldom inevitable and strong individuals
managed by a eurozone finance minister. with convincing answers can break them.
These days many voters care more about
If Macron makes some progress on structural politicians personalities than policies. A lot of
reform and budgetary discipline, Berlin might them liked Boris Johnson (a leader of Britains
agree to borrow and invest a bit more, and, Leave campaign) and Donald Trump. Macrons
possibly, buy some of his ideas for the eurozone. personality, and notably his charm, calm
The problem is that Germanys leaders will be authority and courage he is certainly brave
reluctant to back domestic or European policies to praise the EU repeatedly may well appeal
that run against the grain of traditional German to more voters than Marine Le Pens simplistic
economic thinking. German voters find the idea remedies and bitterness.
of a transfer union that subsidises supposedly
profligate southern Europeans abhorrent.
Germanys Social Democrats are rather more Charles Grant
open to French (and Anglo-Saxon) economic Director, CER
thinking than is Merkel, but even if they win

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