DCF model - www.foretagsvardering.

org
(in million) Actual CAGR Forecast period
2006 2007 2008 2009 (06 - 09) 2010 2011
Sales 2,955 3,568 4,102 4,663 16% 5,036 5,438
% growth 20.7% 15.0% 13.7% 8.0% 8.0%

Total costs -2,511 -3,047 -3,524 -4,031 17% -4,316 -4,661

% sales 85.0% 85.4% 85.9% 86.5% 85.7% 85.7%

EBITDA 444 521 578 631 12% 720 778

% margin 15.0% 14.6% 14.1% 13.5% 14.3% 14.3%

Depreciation & Amortization: -49 -63 -75 -84 -91 -98

% sales 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%
EBIT 396 459 503 548 11% 629 680

Taxes (30%) -119 -138 -151 -164 -189 -204

Capex -79 -41 -169 -116 -125

% sales 2.2% 1.0% 3.6% 2.3% 2.3%

Increase/Decrease in NWC -145 -77 -18 -14 -33

Unlevered Free Cash Flow 159 309 281 402 416

WACC 8.1%
Discount Period 0.5 1.5
Discount Factor 0.96 0.89
Present value of free cash flow 386 370

Terminal Value
Terminal Year Free Cash Flow 524
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0%
Terminal Year EBITDA 980
Terminal Value 10,598
Implied Exit Multiple 11.2x
Discount Period 5.0
Discount Factor 0.7
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,182
% of Enterprise Value 79%

(in million) Actual Forecast period

Net Working Capital 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Account receivables 10 14 17 13
Inventory 543 749 827 953
Prepaid expenses and other 110 42 63 94
Total Current Assets 663 804 906 1,060 1,143 1,235
% sales 22.4% 22.5% 22.1% 22.7% 22.7% 22.7%

Account payable
Accrued Liabilities
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities -509 -505 -530 -666 -735 -794
% sales 17.2% 14.1% 12.9% 14.3% 14.6% 14.6%

Net Working Capital 154 300 377 394 408 441

% sales 5% 8% 9% 8% 8% 8%
 DCF model - www.foretagsvardering.org
Forecast period
2012 2013 2014 Input
5,874 6,343 6,851 Wacc Calculation
8.0% 8.0% 8.0% Target Capital Structure (1)
Debt to Total Capitalization 29.1%
-5,034 -5,436 -5,871 Equity to Total Capitalization 71%
85.7% 85.7% 85.7% Debt to Equity Ratio 41.8%

840 907 980 Cost of Equity

14.3% 14.3% 14.3% Risk-free rate (2) 3.4%
Market risk Premium (3) 4.6%
-106 -114 -123 Levered Beta (4) 1.22
1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Size Premium (5) 0.7%
734 793 856 Cost of Equity 9.7%

-220 -238 -257 Cost of Debt

Cost of Debt 6.0%
-135 -146 -158 Taxes 30.0%
2.3% 2.3% 2.3% After Tax Cost of Debt 4.2%

-35 -38 -41 WACC 8.1%

449 485 524 (1) Obtained from Beta and Capital Structure tab
(2) Interpolated Yield on 10-year Treasury bond
(3) Obtained from PWC market risk study 2010
2.5 3.5 4.5 (4) Obtained from Beta and Capital Structure tab
0.82 0.76 0.70 (5) Obtained from PWC market risk study 2010
370 370 369

Forecast period
2012 2013 2014

1,333 1,440 1,555

22.7% 22.7% 22.7%

-858 -926 -1,000

14.6% 14.6% 14.6%

476 514 555

8% 8% 8%
el - www.foretagsvardering.org DCF model - www.foretagsvardering.org
Sensitivity Analysis
Output Perpetuity growth %
Enterprise value ### 9,047 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5%
Present value of Free Cash Flow 1,865 6.1%
7.1%

WACC
Terminal Value 10,598 8.1%
Discount Factor 0.68 9.1%
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,182 10.1%
% of Enterprise Value 79%
Annual sales growth %
Enterprise value 9,047 9,047 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5%
Less: Total debt 100 12.3%

EBITDA %
Plus: Cash and Cash Equi. 300 13.3%
Net Debt -200 14.3%
15.3%
Implied Equity Value 9,247 16.3%
Outstanding shares 1,000
Implied share price 9.25

Implied multiples
Enterprise Value 9,047
SALES 2010 5,036
EBITDA 2010 720
Implied EV/SALES 1.8x
Implied EV/EBITDA 12.6x
ardering.org
is
growth %
4.0%

growth %
9.0%
 Comparable Companies Unlevered Beta

Market Value of Market Value of Equity/ Total Marginal

Company Levered Beta1 Debt2 Equity3 Debt/ Equity Assets Tax Rate
Company AA 1.23 500 1125 44.4% 69.2% 30%
Company BB 1.31 400 868 46.1% 68.5% 30%
Company CC 1.15 450 788 57.1% 63.6% 30%
Company DD 1.12 375 1125 33.3% 75.0% 30%
Company EE 1.25 250 900 27.8% 78.3% 30%

Median 1.23 44.4% 69.2%

Mean 1.21 395 961 41.8% 70.9%
(1) From Bloomberg
(2) Book Value of Debt
(3) From Bloomberg
(4) Unlevered Beta = Predicted Levered Beta / (1 + (Debt/Equity) x (1-t))

Target
Relevered Mean Unlevered Mean Target Relevered
Marginal
Beta Beta Debt/ Equity Beta
Tax Rate
Target Company 0.94 41.8% 30% 1.22

0
Unlevered
Beta4
0.94
0.99
0.82
0.91
1.05

0.94
0.94
3.40%
5%

0.70%

(3) Obtained from PWC market risk study 2010

(5) Obtained from PWC market risk study 2010

1000