Fluids, Heat and Mass Transfer, Mechanical and Civil Engineering

Develop Trip Generation Model for Alexandria City - Egypt

AHMED ELKAFOURY1,*, ABDELAZIM M. NEGM1, MOHAMED H. ALY2, MAHMOUD
F. BADY3
1
Environmental Engineering Department, Egypt-Japan University of Science and Technology
(E-JUST), P.O. Box 179, New Borg Al-Arab City, 21934 Alexandria, Egypt.
2
Transportation Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, University of Alexandria,
11432 Alexandria, Egypt.
3
Energy Resources Engineering Department,, Egypt-Japan University of Science and
Technology (E-JUST), P.O. Box 179, New Borg Al-Arab City, 21934 Alexandria, Egypt.
* Corresponding author: ahmed.elkafoury@ejust.edu.eg

Abstract This paper tends to introduce a trip generation model for Alexandria city-Egypt. This model can be
implemented in the transportation planning process of the city since the city suffers from harsh transportation and
travel problems. The model relates daily exchanged numbers (Q and Z) of trips at different Transportation Analysis
Zone (TAZs) to its socio-economic data. Analysis of socio-economic and demographic data of different TAZs has
been performed. Zonal data has been involved in Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) technique. Investigate attributes
affect each of trip generation and trip attraction, the significant level of individual socio-economic variables for Q
and Z has been statistically evaluated. Statistical indicators have been used to assess and verify the performance of
the developed trip generation models. The model shows good performance since the models introduced acceptable
CR values of 0.55 for Q model and higher value of 0.72 for Z model, NMSE 0.39 and 0.11 for Q and Z models
respectively, and MG of 0.73 and 0.85 respectively.

Key-WordsAlexandria, Socio-economic data, Transportation planning, Trip generation model, Multiple Linear
Regression (MLR)
1. Introduction
Thanks to the rapid increase in population numbers and
associated economic growth, the travel demand in urban areas
is explicitly increasing. Under the umbrella of sustainable and
environmental urban development planning, the role of the
transportation planner is to manage and introduce different
transportation policies to give urban authorities the tool to
cape with this increase in travel demand. This is performed
through modeling the transportation behavior and the
transportation system to infer the problem key issues. And
consequently, proposing different tested alternatives to relieve
these problems
In the four-stage prediction method, trip generation
predictions are the first step of the traffic demand prediction
process in the traditional four stage prediction method. It
predicts the number of trips originating in or destined for a
particular traffic analysis zone. Every trip has two ends - trips
origin zone and trips destine zone [1]. The reliability of
forecasting results influences the following steps such as trip
distribution, mode split, and traffic assignment. Therefore,
improved trip generation models are needed to improve
forecasting precision [2].
From the transport demand perspective, the users most
relevant characteristic is their socioeconomic level [3]. One of
the widely used of these methods makes use of regression
analysis using data collected in travel survey. The number of
daily trips is a function of set of independent variables. This
method can be applied to any situation since the data is
regression analysis provided [4].
Alexandria city, second largest city in Egypt after Cairo,
with its 32 km along the coast of Mediterranean, it holds two
major Egyptian seaports named Alexandria seaport and El
Dekhela seaport which handles about 80% of the Egyptian
import and export movements. It has suffered from severe
transportation problems. The review showed little number of
research papers and studies related to transportation system
analysis of the city. The objective of this research is to
develop a trip generation (production / attraction) model for
daily trips in Alexandria city. First, the zoning system of the
city has been introduced. On Transportation Analysis Zone
(TAZ) level, socio-economic, demographic, and trip
interchange data has been canalized. Multiple linear
Regression (MLR) technique has been incorporated to develop
the trip generation models. Finally, performance of the models
has been statistically analyzed. This model helps mainly in the
urban transportation planning process of the city.
2. Alexandria city transportation zoning
system
To analyze the transportation and traffic situation in the
study area, there should be a proper splitting of the area into
traffic analysis zones (TAZ). TAZs are the way to inventories
the socio-economic, transportation systems, and traffic-related
data of the study area on a geographical scale, aiming to

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divide a large set of region information into a number of
spatially contiguous regions [5]. For Alexandria city as the
study area in this research, the system invoked coincide with
the administrative division (zones) of Alexandria city. This
means that there are 13 TAZs for Alexandria city. They are, El
Monatza, El Raml, Sidi Gaber, Moharam Bek, Bab Sharq, El
Atarin, El Manshia, El Gomrok, El Laban, Mina El Basal,
Karmoz, El Dekhela, and El Amria. The selection of this
transportation zoning system is to ensure accurate data
providence since the socio-economic and travel demand data
provided is at the nexus of the administrative division scale.
3. Analysis of socio-economic and
demographic data
This section analysis the socio-economic characteristics for
Alexandria city's 13 TAZs in year 2006 Based on data
provided from [6], [7], [8], [9], [10], [11].
3.1 Population
In year 2006, Alexandria city holds about 4 million
inhabitants representing 5.6% of total population number of
Egypt. the analysis of population characteristics in Alexandria
city zones (Table 2) indicates that the most populous zone is
El Monatza which holds 1,173,803 inhabitants representing
% of total population in the city. In the second rank, El
Raml zone holds 19% of the total city population (752,371
inhabitants). The least number of populations among all zones
exists in El Manshia which holds only 1% of the city
population (23,616 inhabitants). This can be explained as this
zone is a trading zone and did not hold many residential
buildings.
As an indicator, high population density areas increase the
cost of urban transport systems, but for example less for the
implementation of rail system than other modes [12]. A look
on the population density (person/km2) all over the city zones
of the zones indicates relatively high gross population density
(The number of people inhabiting an urban area / total area of
urban land) and residential population density (The number of
people living in an urban area divided by the area of
residential land). For the whole city, the average gross
population density and residential population density are
25,706 (persons/km2) and 125,644 (persons/km2) in order.
Old zones including Moharam Bek, El Manshia, Karmoz, El
Laban are indicated as high density population zones as these
are the origin place of Alexandrian inhabitants of the city.
All over Alexandria city, the average annual percentage
increase in population numbers is 1.6%. This rate is less than
the yearly national rate of increase in population in the same
time period which is 2.05%.
3.2 Age Characteristics
The trip production rates distinguish for different age
categories. For Alexandria city, the majority of the population
(42%) in year 2006 is less than 15 years old. The second
dominating age category in the city is the population who has
ages between 35 to 60 years old. Former categories properly
ISBN: 978-1-61804-358-0
have an explicit influence on the daily trip production rates.
This is because those two categories represent the student and
the employees respectively.
As shown in Fig. 1, on the districts scale, a reflection of the
same age categories trends for the whole city is noticed. Only
El Amria district breaks this role as only 16% of its population
is between 35 to 60 years old and about 17% of population is
between 25 to 35 years old. This can be accounted for that this
district is an industrial and hand working area in which these
age categories are the power for that type of work.
3.3 Income Levels
The investigation of income level data of population reflects
its implication on the quality of life. Usually, as the income
level increases, the trip production rates increase in the sequel.
Old TAZs of Alexandria which have high density population
including Moharam Bek, El Manshia, Karmoz, El Laban
besides Mina El Basal zones, are the settle of high proportion
of low income households. About 35%, 29%, 64%, 35%, and
40% of population in those zones respectively represents low
income satisfaction. The biggest portion of population among
all Alexandria city zones that reported high income level is in
Sidi Gaber. In which about 81% of population have high
income level. Also, big portion of families reside the low
population densities zones (Bab Sharq, El Dekhela, and El
Monatza) reports high income level. See Fig. 2.
3.4 Illiterate levels
The illiterate levels in Alexandria city districts increases in
western districts than eastern districts. This is clear in Figure 5
which illustrates the illiterate levels in population with ages
between 15 to 45 years old in different districts for year 2006.
This reveals the relation between portions of population of low
income level in the district and the illiterate levels.
Fig. 1 Distribution of population of different districts among different
age groups in year 2006.
In El Montaza districts, which contain only 7.42% of the
population with low income level, the illiterate level is the
smallest among all districts. As the low income portion of
population increases in western districts, the illiterate level
increases to reach its peak in El Amria district. In which, the
illiterate level is about 22% of population with ages between
15 to 45 years. See Fig. 3.
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3.5 Employment
In order to analyze the employment data, the total
number of employees is different zones has been projected
based on employment data of year 1996 and year 2002
mentioned in. From which, an average annual growth rate of
employment has been derived for different zones and has
found to be of 2.2% per year. Based on this rate, the inventory
data of employment for different zones in year 2006 have been
estimated and results are shown in Table I. El Montaza zone
holds the hugest employment power with 173066 employees
in year 2006. This is suitable for this zone which holds the
highest population number among all zones. The second place
is occupied by the holder of second highest population number
(El Raml zone) which holds 149351 employees. The smallest
number of employees is recorded in El Laban zone with only
24420 employees. Total number of employees in Alexandria
city in year 2006 is 1056564.
3.6 Car ownership
The analysis of private cars numbers in the Alexandria
city illustrates the following facts:
1) Total private cars number in Alexandria city in year 2006
is 334947,
2) The number of private car increase yearly by a rate of
6.5% yearly,
3) Car ownership is about 84 car/1000 inhabitant, and
4) Car ownership per 1000 inhabitants increases by a rate of
4.1% yearly.
Fig. 2 Distribution of population of Alexandria city TAZs among
different income level groups in year 2006.
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Fig. 3 Illiterate level in different districts of Alexandria city in year
2006
3.7 Land and Building Value
El Dekhela TAZ has the highest land value among all
zones. The land value in it is 15 thousand Egyptian pounds per
square meter (L.E/m2). At the nexus, the value of the square
meter of buildings is relatively high with a 3250 (L.E/m2) of
building. Sidi Gaber district have the second highest land
value with 8500 (L.E/m2), but it holds the highest building
value in the city with 4000 (L.E/m2). Old zone in the city
which holds high population numbers and high population
densities, including El Manshia, El Laban, and Moharam Bek
besides El Gomrok zone, have a relatively convergent land
values. Mina El Basal zone signed the lowest land value
and building value of 600(L.E/m2), and 400 (L.E/m2) in
order. Land and building values for different zones in
illustrated in Fig 4.
3.8 Use of dwelling
According to the 2006 Population and Housing Census,
most of the dwellings of Alexandria are used for residential
purposes. In all zones, residential usage of dwellings shares
the biggest percentage among all usage categories. The usage
of buildings as for work shares the least percentage in all
zones except in El Atarin and El Manshia zones. In these
zones, using building for work purposes shares 35,3% and
32,6% of the total buildings number. Distribution of using
purposes of buildings in different zones is shown in Fig. 5.
4. Land uses
Alexandria city is extended for 32 km parallel to the sea
with a narrow costal stretch of a width ranges between 1 to 5
kilometers. As illustrated in Figure 8, the prevailing land use
purpose of the urbanized land all over the zones of Alexandria
is the residential purpose. It shares the same percentage in El
Montaza, El Raml, and El Dekhela zones with about 82% of
the zones areas. In all zones, except El Montaza, Bab Sharq,
and El Gomrok, the second dominating land use purpose is the
Economical land use. The second prevailing land use in El
Montaza zone is the Educational land use purpose. This is at
the nexus of the educational situation analysis mention before
which indicated El Montaza as obtaining the highest number
of educational places in any district. Utilities occupy the
lowest land use purpose in almost all zones. Other services
including health, religious, roads, and open areas; which are
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 Fluids, Heat and Mass Transfer, Mechanical and Civil Engineering

indicated in Fig. 6 as (Others) represent high contribution land 2) High population number in El Montana zone (Highest
use (33%) in among all TAZs).

Fig. 5 Use of dwelling of different TAZs of Alexandria city.

Fig. 4 Land and building value of different TAZs of Alexandria city

in year 2006
El Gomrok zone, while it shows lower contribution in other
zones.

5. Travel demand and trip characteristics

The Origin-Destination (O/D) matrix describes the travel
demand commuted between pairs of transportation zones in
the study area. As illustrated in Table 7, in year 2006, the total
daily number of trips exchange between all transportation
zones in Alexandria city is 4242773 trip/day. From which,
40% are inter-zonal trips and 60% are exchange trips between
pairs of zones. Analysis indicates that the maximum number
of exchanged trips is 178854 trip/day. This travel demand is
generated from El Montaza zone to El Raml zone. This refers Fig. 6 Land use breakdown of different TAZs of Alexandria city.
to:
1) The higher attractively between the two zones due to the Fig. 6 Land use breakdown of different TAZs of Alexandria city in
year 2006
short travel distance between them.
3) The huge number of employees in El Montana zone (First
TABLE 1. ORIGIN DESTINATION MATRIX OF ALEXANDRIA CITY IN YEAR 2006
Mina Total trip
El Sidi Bab Moharam El El El El El El
TAZ Elmontazah Karmoz El production
Raml Gaber Sharq Bek Atarin Manshia Gomrok Laban Dekhela Amria
Basal (Q)

Elmontazah 228303 178854 63206 65750 28916 27098 11069 14950 3341 4528 5735 2891 3296 637937

El Raml 141748 370739 120096 107045 40124 37117 22681 18481 3328 4243 5718 6069 5013 882402

Sidi Gaber 14944 35707 134534 68183 11861 17409 9405 10222 2224 2264 3936 2329 1388 314406

Bab Sharq 15797 33964 60983 195065 70008 64066 44892 15910 4234 3713 6174 3205 2137 520148
Moharam
6690 17116 63325 151894 262013 125027 68886 21810 5710 18964 15640 5788 2246 765109
Bek
El Atarin 1410 5806 1572 18937 24248 85072 16437 10890 2054 2807 2942 1274 701 174150

El Manshia 898 3030 1108 9304 4304 10097 45336 14963 3135 1252 2307 670 718 97122

El Gomrok 2133 7685 2505 23416 10151 12842 1564 18688 3776 3837 7849 2491 2565 99502

El Laban 744 2767 1449 7067 7527 7317 6594 9138 13294 3157 7247 1327 1169 68797

Karmoz 3437 9090 5035 23215 32301 30439 20583 45223 56307 142777 71377 13621 7334 460739
Mina El
1800 5574 2885 9541 11424 8543 8718 8342 5215 12803 31140 6038 4059 116082
Basal
El Dekhela 180 175 359 1804 1817 1016 10929 12552 7541 8668 12579 32989 11717 102326

El Amria 27 171 31 92 74 57 53 214 105 125 153 701 2250 4053

Total trip
418111 670678 457088 681313 504768 426100 267147 201383 110264 209138 172797 79393 44593 4242773
attracted (Z)

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rank in number of employees among all zones)
4) High portion of population (about 46% of population)
with
5) High income level which means more trip production
rates.
6) The higher economic activity land use in El Raml zone
(About 11% urban land).
For more clarification, El Raml zone locates in Sidi
Gaber district which holds main train station in the city
represents the port to travel to other cities from Alexandria
city. Big number of faculties of University of Alexandria is
located in Sidi Gaber district. This represents attractiveness for
faculty students from high income level in El Montana zone.
On the other hand, it is interesting to shed light upon the
highest values of total trip production (Q) and trip attraction
(Z) in the city O/D matrix. El Raml zone recorded the first
rank in total trip production and inter-onal trips with 882402
and 370739 trip/day respectively. This coincides with the big
number of population in the zone which is an incentive for trip
production. Also, the zone holds the second biggest number of
employees among all zones. This brings forward more daily
home-based work trips. Besides, the high value of land in this
zone is amenable for more flee to zones with lower value of
land for work. This is also clear from the land use purpose
distribution of El Raml zone. In which, about 82% are for
residential purpose and only 13% for educational and
economical activities which advocate more trips towards other
zones for economic and educational purposes. El Amria zone
lies in the last rank regarding total trip production and inter-
zonal trips with only 4035 and 2250 trip/day respectively.
Regarding the trip attraction, Bab Sahrq zone occupies
the first rank among all zones with attracting 681313 trip/day.
This is ascribed to the low value of land and buildings in this
zone which is suitable for commercial and economical
activities. Latter reason is drawn from the land uses in this
zones which have about 6.5% of land is for entertainment land
use. This is the second highest percentage of land use for
entertainment purpose among all zones of the city. El Amria
also is recorded in the last rank of trips attracted with only
44593 trip/day.
With concern to trip characteristics, statistics indicates
that 45% of total trip number is a return home trip. While
about 23% and 16% of the trips are for the purpose of going to
work and going to school. This falls in line with the small
student to population ratio in the city which is 21%.
Recreational and private affairs trips represent only 16% of all
trip purposes. The reason refers to overall low income level in
the city and also weakness of public transport system.
6. Trip generation model for Alexandria
city
To developed trip generation models: trip production and
attraction models for the study area thirteen TAZs, zonal data
has been involved in (MLR) technique. The socio-economic
phenomena of different TAZ have been correlated to total
number of trips (Q and Z) of zones. Initially, to investigate
ISBN: 978-1-61804-358-0
attributes affect each of trip generation and trip attraction, the
significant level of individual socio-economic variables for Q
and Z has been statistically evaluated to minimize sources of
uncertainty in the developed models. This is obtained by
estimating both the probability significant value (P-value) and
linear coefficient of determination (R2) between individual
variables and Q and Z as dependent variables and every socio-
economic variable as explanatory variables. The explanatory
variable is considered significant if it has P-value less than or
equal to the significant level of 0.05 and have high linear
coefficient of determination with comparison to other
variables. This means that changes in the socio-economic
variable has significant effect on changing the dependent
variable (Q or Z).
As shown in Table 2, population number (X1),
employment number (X2), and percentage illiterates of
population (X3) have been found to obtain the highest linear
coefficient of determination (R2) with the number of trip
production of TAZs. They have R2 of 0.31, 0.31, and 0.40
respectively. So, the significance level of each have been
checked, and have been found significant variables in the trip
production in TAZs as they have P-values of 0.047, 0.044, and
0.020 respectively. For trip attraction, the socio-economic
variables that have the highest linear coefficient of
determination (R2) with the number of trip attracted to TAZs
are the employment number (X2), percentage illiterates of
population (X3) in addition to percentage of population with
age between 25-35 years old (X4), and percentage of land
used for educational purpose (X5). Consequently, the
significance level have been checked for those variables.
Results indicated significant assurance as they have significant
P-values of 0.050, 0.002, 0.050, and 0.042 respectively.
Regression work has been operated on the significant
variables and number of trips produced and attracted to
individual transportation zones. The results are two multiple
regression models for both Q and Z as expressed in the
following equations:
(R2= 0.50) (1)
(R2= 0.71) (2)
here:
Qi : is the number of trips produced from the TAZ I (trip/day),
Zi : is the number of trips attracted to the TAZ I (trip/day),
X1i : is the population number in TAZ i,
X2i : is the employment number in TAZ i,
X3i : is the percentage illiterates of population in TAZ i,
X4i : is the percentage of population with age between 25-35
years old in TAZ i, and
X5i : is the percentage of land used for Educational purpose in
TAZ i.
The analysis of the proposed trip generation models
introduces the following facts:
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 Fluids, Heat and Mass Transfer, Mechanical and Civil Engineering

1) The model coefficients of the socio-economic variables has inferior effect on trip attraction since it has the
have signs match with the individual correlation smallest model coefficient among all descriptive variable
For trip production model (Q model)
in trip attraction model.

TABLE 2. SIGNIFICANT SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR TRIP PRODUCTION

Indication linear coefficient of Individual correlation (Q) AND TRIP ATTRACTION (Z) IN ALEXANDRIA CITY
of the determination (R2) coefficient between )
P-value
variable in between individual between individual
the model variables and Q variables and Q 7. Statistical assessment of developed trip
generation model
X1 0.047 0.31 0.56 In this step, statistical indicators have been used to assess
X2 0.044 0.31 0.56 and verify the performance of the developed trip generation
models for Alexandria city. This is to ensure the significance
X3 0.020 0.40 -0.63 and agreeability of output values of the developed trip
generation models with the dataset on which the modeling
For trip Attraction model (Z model)
process have been based. The goodness of t for each model is
examined based on the values of the O-D matrix balance error,
Indication linear coefficient of Individual correlation correlation coefficient of determination (R2) between modeled
of the
P-value
determination (R2) coefficient between ) and actual base year trip production and attraction values,
variable in between individual between individual difference between average monitored and actual average of
the model variables and Z variables and Z
trip production and attraction values at the base year,
X4 0.050 0.26 -0.61 Normalized Mean Square Error (NMSE), Frictional Biases
(FB), and Geometrical Mean (MG), and Coincidence Ratio
X2 0.050 0.27 0.52 (CR). Calculated Values of the statistical indicators for both
models are illustrated in Table 3. Analysis of results indicates
X3 0.002 0.56 -0.75 the followings:
1) The O-D matrix balance error (which is the percentage
X5 0.042 032 0.57
difference between the sum of total number of trips
produced and the sum of total number of trips attracted of
all TAZs) indicates the quality of Q and Z models
accompanied which forms the base for the trip
coefficient of the variable in Table 8 which also match the
distribution step of the 4 steps transportation planning
engineering judgment. This means that the effect of the
process. The ideal situation is when the sum of trip
explanatory variable in the model is the same effect of the
generated and the sum of trips attracted in the O-D matrix
individual relation between the explanatory variable and
is equalized. i.e. O-D balance error is zero and no
the dependent variable (Q or Z). For example, the model
calibration is needed. For the developed Q and Z models
coefficients of percentage illiterates of population in TAZ
for Alexandria city, the balance error in is only 5.8%.
have negative signs in both Q and Z models (-44430.9
2) Percentage relative average error (Percentage difference
and -16333.1 respectively). This is at the nexus with the
between average actual trip numbers and average
negative sign of individual correlation coefficient between
modeled trip numbers) is relatively small for both Q
the percentage illiterates of population with Q and Z (-
model and Z model representing percentages of -0.016%
0.63 and -0.75 respectively).
and 5.972% for both models respectively. Such values of
2) The percentage illiterate of population (X3i) has high
errors may be neglected as we deal with numbers of trip
effect on trip production (Q) since it has the highest
thousands trips produced and attracted to transportation
absolute model coefficients value (44430.9). The negative
zones per day,
sign of the coefficient illustrates reduction in trip
3) The NMSE which reflects the overall deviations between
production of the TAZ with the increase of percentage
modeled and actual trip numbers for both models
illiterate of population in the TAZ. The variable that has
investigated equals 0.39 and 0.11 for Q and Z models
the smallest effect of trip production number is the
respectively. Therefore, the performance of the model is
population number (X1i) of TAZ which has a model
considered acceptable and correctly describes the
coefficient of only 0.217365.
processes since NMSE is less than 0.5 [13], [14],
3) The percentage of population with age between 25-35
4) FB value for trip production and trip attraction model are
years old (X4i) has the highest effect on trip attraction of
0.00016 and -0.06 respectively. Such values are indicating
TAZ. It has the biggest absolute model coefficients value
small overall overestimation of trip numbers for Q model
of (90650.6). The negative sign of the model coefficient
and small overall underestimation of trip numbers for Z
indicates in trip attraction to the TAZ with the increase of
model. Nevertheless, for both models, the FB values are
percentage of population with age between 25-35 years
acceptable since FB values lays between -0.7 and 0.7
old in the zone. The employment number in TAZ (X2i)

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[14], variables. Regression work has been operated on the

5) MG values for Q and Z models respectively are 0.73 and significant variables and number of trips produced and
0.85 respectively. These values deviate from the ideal attracted to individual transportation zones. The results are
value of MG (1.00) [15], [16] with only 0.27 and 0.15 for two multiple regression models for both Q and Z. statistical
both models respectively. Such figures of MG indicate indicators have been used to assess and verify the performance
small systematic errors and minute relative biases for of the developed trip generation models for Alexandria city.
predicted production and attraction TAZs trip numbers The O-D matrix balance error is only 5.8%. Percentage
with comparison to actual trip numbers, relative average error is relatively small for both Q model and
Z model representing percentages of -0.016% and 5.972% for
both models respectively. The NMSE equals 0.39 and 0.11 for
Q and Z models respectively. FB value for trip production and
trip attraction model are 0.00016 and -0.06 respectively.
Trip production Trip Attraction
Statistical indicators model model Acceptable CR values of 0.55 for Q model and higher value of
(Q) (Z) 0.72 for Z model. Therefore, the performance of the model is
considered acceptable. This model helps mainly in the urban
Mean error -53.8 (trip/day) 19490.3 (trip/day) transportation planning process of the city.
% Relative average error -0.016 5.972
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
FB 0.00016 -0.06
NMSE 0.39 0.11
The first author would like to thank Egyptian Ministry of
0.73 0.85 Higher Education (MoHE) for providing him the financial
MG
support (PhD scholarship) for this research, as well as Egypt
CR 0.55 0.70
Japan University of Science and Technology (E-JUST) for
(R2) between actual and offering the facility and tools needed to conduct this work.
0.57 0.72
modeled trip numbers
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