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Indonesia Renewable Energy Outlook

& Prospect for Ocean Energy
M.A.M. Oktaufik

Indonesia Energy Sector Overview

Energy

Source: EBTKE KESDM 2012

Tripled Demand & Doubled Supply in 2 decades, heavily Fossil based Energy dependent
Main factors incl. Population & Economic (GDP) growth rate

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Indonesia Energy Outlook Model: Methodology

Policy, Business Plan, Economic & Politic Conditions, Technology, etc

Markal Optimization + BPPT's Indonesia Demand Model

11/09/12 2

Indonesia Energy Outlook (2012): Primary Energy

(Base Case: 8% GDP Avg.Growth)

Rapid increase in final energy demand (domestic) between 2010 and 2030 to support GDP growth rate averaging
7.6% (base) and 10.4% (MP3EI), the baseline scenario is estimated to increase 3 times of 2010, namely close to
3,000 million BOE per year, whereas in scenario MP3EI reached more than 4-fold
Energy supply in 2030 will be dominated by fossil energy sources (82%).
Coal became the main supplier of energy in the energy mix since 2015, amounting to 31% and to 38% in 2030.
The share of natural gas (Basic Scenario) decreased slightly (15.6%), but still higher than EBT (13%), and firewood
(10%) in 2015.

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New & Renewable Energy Sources

Contribution in Energy-Mix

Base Case scenario: the provision of NRE grew > 8% per year; increase use of NRE > 4x fold: from 141
million BOE in 2010 to 670 million BOE in 2030.
EBT rapid growth has not been able to increase its role in the national energy mix.

11/09/12

New & Renewable Energy Sources by Type

2030: biofuel become the main RE utilization, particularly for transportation sector, follows
by geothermal, Hydro, Biomass, solar, Waste, and Wind (total 17,5% base case)

11/09/12

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Outlook of Power Plant Capacity

by Type of Fuel/Source

2010 2030:
Multiply by ~ 5 - 7 folds
33,2 GW (2010) -> 162 GW
(2030, Base, 8%/th).
-->228 GW (2030,
MP3EI, 10%/th)

Coal PP: Primary Tech.

2030: 97,6 GW (base) and
160,7 GW MP3EI).

NRE Vs Fossil based PP

2010 s.d. 2030: RE Power
Generation ~6x; 6,6 -> 39
GW
Types: Geothermal, Hydro,
Biomass, Nuclear, Solar
PV, Coal Gasification/CCT,
Wind, Waste/W2E
Geothermal & Hydro: 12
GW (7%) and 18,3
GW(11%) in 2030.
Nuclear is predicted to
produce 2 GW (1%) in
2028, 4 GW (2%) in2030.

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Renewable Energy for Electricity

Paradigm shift of National Energy Policy: availability and
affordability limitation of Fossil Fuel ---> more role and hope to New
and Renewable Energy Sources and also Energy Efficiency in the
national energy-mix in the near future.
High increase of energy demand (Fuel and Electricity): population
and economic growth, give more pressure to increase the energy supply
(fuel and electricity)
Types of Renewable Energy Technology:
Solar PV, Pico/Micro/Mini Hydro, Bioenergy: with their own
limitation and benefit, in particularly their site specific, low energy-
density and intermittent profile. Economically can not compete the
heavily subsidized fossil fuel.
Ocean Energy have a better source potential, (Ocean area almost
2/3 of whole Indonesia area: a Maritime Continent) but very limited
R&D activities in Indonesia.

Low Carbon Energy Development &

BPPTs Experiences (1980 now)
BPPT has been developing 'cleaner' energy
technology to support sustainable energy for more
than 30 years; However, the related technology
remain in their pre-commercialization stage.
Implementation of low carbon energy in Indonesia has
not take-off due to non technology barriers, such as
conditions in the down stream and non integration of
upstream and process of Low Carbon Energy
development, almost all types of Renewable Energy
source; such as Solar (PV & Thermal), Micro/Mini
Hydro, Biomass Energy, Biofuels, Wind Energy,
Ocean Energy (OTEC, Wave, Current), etc.
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Timeline of RE & EE R&D :

BPPT's Experiences

Pilot Plant
Bio-Ethanol PV Testing Energy Efficiency Applications &
& energy Facility/Lab. Audit in Energy Intensive
Plantation Industries
Smart Grid
-PV Applications
& Pilotings Biomass Wind Energy
(Housing, Rural, PV Hybrid Technology
Gasification Piloting
Pumping, etc) Geothermal Microturbine (Low Velocity) Biomass/Biogas
Pilot plant Cogeneration Power
OTEC Bali Appl. Proj. Generation
(Design) Microhydro Biohydrogen Ocean Current
Piloting Production Prototyping &
1979: 1985: 1990: 1995 2003 2006 2010:potential mapping

-Solar Village 2012 -

Project Biofuels for
Transportation
Biodiesel
-Solar Thermal Plant Dev. Small
Solar Agro Pump
Drying Geothermal
Power Plant
Renewable Energy PV IndustryPrototyping
IndonesiaProject Feasibility
-Solar Thermal Tap-Chan+ Assessment
Timber Drying OWC
Study
(Baron) 14

Indonesia Archipelago: a Maritime Continent

Islands = 17,480
Ocean = 5.8 million km2
Ocean EEZ = 2.7 million km2
Costline = 95,180 km
Population (2010) = 236 million

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Comparison of Energy Resources

Renewable Low Low Minimal Predictable Modular

Resource Capital Running Environmental
Cost Cost Impact
Fossil N Y N N Y N
Nuclear N Y N N Y N
Wind Y N Y Y N Y
Solar Y N Y Y N Y
Hydro Y Y Y N Y N
Wave Y N Y Y N Y
Current Y N Y Y Y Y
OTEC Y N NA Y Y Y

Ocean Energy Power Generation Technology still in the initial stage

Discussions & Recommendations (1)

Long-term energy model study of Indonesia's energy condition by

2030, with the assumption of optimistic economic growth (8%) and
high/MP3EI (10%), indicating the dominance of fossil energy sources
(83%) over the renewable energy sources (17%) in its role as a
supplier for domestic energy demand or national energy-mix.
Outlook of RE utilization still below the targeted conditions of the long-
term national energy policy. There is a very big challenge and
opportunity of all Renewable Energy technologies & Resources in
developing the future sustainable energy in Indonesia.
Almost all of the RE technologies remain in their early stage of
commercial applications in Indonesia. Therefore, the Ocean Energy
technology development need to be accelerated to join the effort to
give us the so called low-carbon energy supply for the sustainable
development and society.

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Discussions & Recommendations (2)

Ocean energy potential was very small or unaccounted in the OEI
model. More information is needed on the potential and feasibility
of the future Ocean energy application in Indonesia.
More piloting and R&D activities of the OEPG technology is
important to gain understanding and interest in developing this
technology.
Demand wise development of OEPG Plants require a good long
term planning and close to the populated or industrial area. To
support this requirement, a spatial mapping approach need to be
conducted due to various activities (transportation, fishery, etc)
present in the same area or locations.
Micro and Smart Grid technology development nowadays can give
benefit to accelerate the Ocean Energy development. Therefore
any pilot project of OEPG need to be integrated with the other
Renewable Energy Power Plants (Hybrid Power System)

Discussions & Recommendations (3)

Compare to the other types of Renewable Energy (RE) sources, the

ocean energy technology seems lack behind. However, almost all of
the RE technology still in the early stage of its commercial
applications in Indonesia. Therefore, the Ocean Energy technology
development need to be accelerated to join the effort to provide the
low-carbon energy supply for the sustainable development and
society.
At present stage, the sources potential Mapping very crucial to
accelerate the dissemination of the Ocean Energy technology,
moreover, a spatial approach need to be added due to various
activities (transportation, fishery, etc) present in the same area or
locations.
Integration with the electricity distribution system: Micro and Smart
Grid technology development nowadays can give benefit to
accelerate the Ocean Energy development and need to be integrated

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Thank You for your kind

Attention

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