aG

i 2 {22, 23, ..., 40}

k
 aG
i i

X
E E E f E G
Uia G = 0k I(typei = k) + 1 Di + 2 ai + iE
k
NE
Uia G = 0,

I(type = k) k Dif

iE N (0, 2
)

(1)
dia = 1 i a
(2) (3) (4)
dia = 1 dia = 1 dia = 1
(5)
dia = 1
 M
ln(wia ) = 0M + 1M txia + 2M tx2ia + M
ia

M
wia i a txia i0 s

M
ia

jia , j = V, U

ntxia ,

Die N T
ia .

R2 wagej Dj j 2 {M, V, U } Dj
2
j 0 R

R2
.83 .82 .81
 X
V
ln(wia ) = V
I(typei = k)0k + 1V txia + 2V tx2ia + 3V Dif + Via
k
X
U
ln(wia ) = U
I(typei = k)0k + 1U txia + 2V tx2ia + 3U Dif + U
ia
k
X
NT
ln(wia ) = NT
I(typei = k)0k + 1N T txia + 2N T ntxia + 3N T ntx2ia + 4N T Die + 5N T Dif + N
ia
T

cs , cl ,

cw . a > aG

j = M, V, U, N T i k 2 1, 2, ..K

X (5)
M M M
Uia = wia + 0k I(typei = k) + cs ICs + cw I[di,a 1 = 1] + cl I[Di,a
l
= 1],
k
X (5)
V V V
Uia = wia + 0k I(typei = k) + cs ICs + cw I[di,a 1 = 1] + cl I[Di,a
l
= 1],
k
X (5)
U U U
Uia = wia + 0k I(typei = k) + cs ICs + cw I[di,a 1 = 1] + cl I[Di,a
l
= 1],
k
NT NT (5)
Uia = wia + cs ICs + cw I[di,a 1 = 1] + cl I[Di,a
l
= 1, ]

(5) l
ICs = I[di,a 1 6= dia , di,a 1 6= 1, Di,a 1 = 0]
l j
Di,a 0k

j = M, V, U

X f
H H H H H
Uia = 0k + 1 nkia I(ai 50) + 2 nkia Di I(ai 50) + ia ,
k
nk H N (0,
ia 8i, a
H)

pfia

nki,a+1 = nkia + 1 pfia nki,a+1 = nkia 1 pfia

nkia b
Di,a
1 1

P f f f 2 f f f f b
exp( 0k I(type = k) + 1 ai + 2 ai + 3 ai Di + 4 nkia 1 + 5 Di,a 1 )
k
pfia = P f .
1+ exp( k 0k I(type = k) + 1f ai + 2f a2i + 3f ai Dif + 4f nkia + 5f Di,a
b
1)

plT
ia

exp( 0lT + 1lT txia )

plT
ia = .
1 + exp( 0lT + 1lT txia )

plN
ia
T

exp( 0lN T + 1lN T ntxia )

plN
ia
T
= .
1 + exp( 0lN T + 1lN T ntxia )
1.06% 0.64%

1.25%
16 2.85%
 K =3

ia
0
eia !
P r(ki = |ia ) = P3 0ia !

=1 e

!1 = 0
0
eia !
P r(ki = |Xia ) = P 0 .
1 + 3 =2 eia !

ia = [1 Dif txia ntxia nkia di,a 1

l
Di,a Die aG
i
b
Di,a 1]
0

(4)
0ia ! = ! 0 + ! 1 Dif + ! 2 txia + ! 3 ntxia + ! 4 nkia + ! 6 di,a 1
l
+ ! 5 Di,a +

! 6 Die + ! 7 aG b
i + ! 8 Di,a 1 + ! 9 1(ELD).
 (a)

"(a)

V ((a), "(a); ) = max{Uia + Emax[V ((a + 1), "(a + 1); )|(a), dia ]}
dia

ai ai < a R aR

a0 a0

A NA

A ia i i = 1, ..., NI !ia 2 ia

Zia ia

yia

yiask ( ) yia

s s = 1, ...S

k k 2 {1, .., K} yia ( )

S K
1 XX
yia ( ) = yiask ( ; a , typei = k)P r(typei = k|a )
S
s=1 k=1
P r(typei = k|a )

yia ( )

wi i

Zia

A 2 A Di,Zia ,A = 1 !ia 2 Zia a 2 A, = 0. N = NA NI

NI NA

M
yia
M M M
M Dia M yia Dia
 h P N P a0 i
i 1
fN ( )= N i=1 a=a0 (yia yia ( ))Di,Zia ,A wi .

NI ! 1 S!1

E(yia yia ( )|Di,Zia ,A = 1)P r(Di,Zia ,A = 1)

m1 fN ( )

= argminfN ( )0 WN ( )fN ( )

WN mm VN

W V WN VN

p 0
N ( ) (N (0, ( W ) 1
( 0 W V W )(( 0 W 0
) 1 0
) ).

WN = VN 1

V W

1
P N P a0 M M M M
N i=1 a=a0 (yia Dia yia Dia )Di,Zia ,A wi
0 s M0
0j s, j = 1, 2, 3)
e
 W

p 0
N ( ) (N (0, ( W ) 1
( 0 W V W )(( 0 W 0
) 1 0
) ).

V 1
yia 2
yia

Di,Z 0 0 =1
ia ,A

Di,Zia ,A = 1

2 P N P a0 3
1 1 1 ( ))D
N i=1 a=a0 (yia yia i,Zia ,A wi
fN ( ) = 4 P N P a0
5.
1 2 2 ( ))D
N i=1 a=a0 (yia yia i,Z 0 ia ,A0 wi

VN N

V
NI Xa Xa 0 0
1 2 X
VN =( )
N a=a i=1 0 l=a0
2 3
1
(yia 1 )(y 1
yia yil1 )Di,Zia ,A Di,Zil ,A wi2 1
(yia 1 )(y 2
yia yil2 )Di,Zia ,A Di,Z 0 ,A0 wi2
4 il il il 5
2
(yia 2 )(y 1
yia yil1 )Di,Zia ,A Di,Z 0 ,A0 wi2 (yia
2 2 )(y 2
yia yil2 )Di,Z 0 2
il il
il ia ,A0 Di,Z 0 ,A0 wi
il

K m 0

2 1 ( )
3
@fN
0 @ 0
=4 @fN2 ( )
5 .
@ 0 2K
i i i

\
@f m f m( + m( )
N( ) i) fN
= N
@ i i

W
 aG+1 aR

aG+1 aR

229

agecat1 [23, 34] [35, 44] [45, 54]

 agecat1males

[23, 44] [45, 54]

agecat2 [23, 29] [30, 34] [35, 44] [45, 54]

texpcat [0, 4] [5, 9] [10, 14] [15, 19]

nkidscat

agecat1

texpcat

nkidscat

texpcat

nkidscat

agecat2

texpcat

agecat1 nkidscat

agecat1males nkidscat
 106

agecat1 [22, 34] [35, 44] [45, 54]

agecat2 [22, 29] [30, 34] [35, 44] [45, 54]

ntexpcat [0, 4] [5, 9] [10, 14]

[15, 19]

nkidscat

agecat1

ntexpcat

nkidscat

ntexpcat

nkidscat

agecat2

ntexpcat

nkidscat

aG

aG
 V

VEP S

VELD

VEP S 1 108 V

VELD

1
 NT
01
01

NT
02
02

NT
03
03

1 1N T

2 2N T

3N T

4N T

5N T

0M H
01

1M H
02
 2M H
03

M 01

< 51 H
1
M 02
< 51 H
1
M 03

V
01
cs
V
02
cl
V
03 cw

1V

2V M

3V V

V U
01

V NT
02
 V H
03

U f
01 01

U f
02 02

U f
03 03

f
1U 1

f
2U 2

f
3U 3

U f
01 4

U f
02 5

U
03
 lT
0

lT
1

lN T
0

lN T
1

!20 !30

!21 !31

!22 !32

!23 !33

!24 !34

!25 !35

!26 !36
 !27 !37
!28 !38

!ELD !ELD