DISCOVERING THE HIDDEN HEALTH STATES IN BEARING VIBRATION SIGNALS FOR
FAULT PROGNOSIS
Rodney K. Singleton II, Elias G. Strangas and Selin Aviyente
Michigan State University
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering
East Lansing, MI 48824, USA
ABSTRACT
In recent years, there has been a growing interest in diagnosis
and prognosis of motors and electrical drives. Effective and
accurate prognosis and diagnosis of systems will eventually
lead to condition based maintenance, which will decrease
maintenance costs and system downtime. Much work has
been done in diagnosing the state of a motor, however
prediction of the health state at future times, and ultimately
the prediction of the systems remaining useful life (RUL),
still proves to be a challenge. One of the challenges to
efcient prognosis is that in many applications, there is no
labeled training data and the different health states of the
system are not known a priori. In this paper, we propose
an approach for learning the hidden health states of a
bearing from vibration signals. The proposed approach is
based on extracting multiple features from sensor signals and
identifying change points in the state of the system based on
these features.
Index Terms Ball bearings, Bearing Faults, Prognostics
and health management, Health States, Remaining Useful
Life, Event Detection, Reliability engineering
I. INTRODUCTION
Common practice in industry is to perform xed interval
maintenance as a solution to maintenance of electromechan-
ical systems. However, there are several problems that arise
using this practice. First, there is the possibility that failure
could occur between scheduled maintenances, which could
result in a catastrophic accident. Second, performing these
scheduled maintenance checks incurs high costs, even in the
case where there is no fault detected. Third, xed interval
maintenance requires the machine to be unnecessarily out
of use and unable to perform its usual function, which is
costly for the user. Condition-based maintenance provides a
solution to this problem as maintenance only occurs when
the user is alerted to an impending failure, provided by a
This material is based in part upon work supported by the National
Science Foundation under Grant No. EECS-1102316 and by the National
Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship under Grant No. DGE-
0802267.
k,((( 
remaining useful life estimation. Accurate RUL predictions
of electromechanical systems will provide the user with an
estimate of the time until the system fails, and will provide
the user with time to get the defective part xed or replaced.
This will reduce maintenance costs, system downtime, and
more importantly increase system safety and reliability [13].
Much progress has been made in fault diagnosis of
electromechanical systems, through the use of signal pro-
cessing techniques [18], [25], [28]. However, given these
advancements there is still little success in the area of
prognosis and RUL predictions. Currently, the approaches
to prognosis of electromechanical systems fall into the cate-
gories of model-based or data-driven [4], [28]. Model-based
techniques employ a model of the degradation based on
either the physical composition of the system, or a physics-
based failure model of the degradation process. Techniques
such as particle ltering and Kalman ltering have been used
for fault prognosis, as well as set membership identication
for broken rotor bars, in this model-based category [14],
[16], [17]. However, in most cases these models are unknown
or difcult to obtain, due to the complexity of the system.
Data-driven techniques, such as Motor Current Signature
Analysis (MCSA), avoid this issue, as the degradation model
is extracted directly from the data [11]. In this approach,
sensors are used to acquire data from the motor in situ
in order to extract the most relevant trends for prognosis.
In literature, time series analysis and Markov chains have
been used to estimate the RUL given these trends [10],
[12], [21]. Although data-driven techniques are promising,
the challenge arises when trying to determine these trends
from training data, which may be insufcient and unlabeled.
In both model-based and data-driven techniques, work has
been done to perform prognosis and diagnosis through the
use of intermediary health states. In most cases, there is an
actual physical meaning to the underlying health states, as
in [28], where the health states correspond to the number of
damaged or missing teeth in a gear. Also, in [16], the number
of broken rotor bars, which can incur many secondary effects
such as mechanical vibrations, increases in temperature, and
stator winding damage [7], in induction machines determines
what health state the motor is in. However, problems arise
when dealing with a component which does not have well-
dened health states throughout its degradation process [10].
In this case, health states need to be learned from the
data over time through event or change point detection [3].
Recently, there has been an increased interest in event, or
change-point, detection due to its ability to capture trend
changes or interesting patterns in time series data [3], [9],
[23]. Moreover, it can be used to partition a given time series
into different event intervals, especially when these intervals
are not known or understood a priori.
In this work, we propose a new health state estimation
process for bearings. In recent surveys, it has been shown
that bearings cause a large portion of the causes of failures
in motors, which further motivates the need for effective
prognosis on bearings [8], [24], [26]. Particularly, when
performing prognosis on bearing faults, vibration signals are
commonly used as the sensor data. Due to the stochastic
nature of bearing failures, vibration data is very noisy.
Moreover, previous research has shown that bearings do not
necessarily follow a monotonic degradation pattern which
makes identication of health states even more challenging
and important [20]. This paper provides an approach to
performing de-noising on bearing vibration data as well
as extracting underlying health states using event detection
techniques.
II. BACKGROUND
II-A. Time-Frequency Distributions
The most common time-frequency transform methods are
the Short-time Fourier Transform (STFT), wavelet trans-
form and Cohens class of time-frequency (TF) distribu-
tions. These transforms are useful when trying to extract
information from nonstationary signals, such as bearing
vibration signals. One of the advantages of using Cohens
class of time-frequency distributions is that they have uni-
form resolution over both time and frequency, while the
wavelet transform does not. For this reason, we use Cohens
class of time-frequency distributions (TFDs) to extract a TF
representation of the bearing vibrations, given by: 1 [6]:

C(t, ) = (, )s(u + 2 )s (u 2 ) (1) is shown in Fig. 1. Section III-A will discuss the data
ej(ut ) du d d,
where the function (, ) is the kernel function and s is the
vibration signal. In this paper, the Choi-Williams distribution
is used to lter out the cross-terms and is given by:
( )2
(, ) = exp( ), (2)
where controls the trade-off between time-frequency res-
olution and the cross-terms.
1 All integrals are from to unless otherwise stated.

II-B. Time-Frequency Feature Extraction
From the vibration signal of bearings, time domain fea-
tures including the root mean square (rms), variance, skew-
ness, kurtosis are commonly used in fault prognosis [24].
In the frequency domain, commonly used features include
rms frequency, frequency center, and root variance frequency
[10], [24], [26]. In this paper, we focus on TF features since
they are capable of jointly capturing the time and frequency
domain characteristics. In regards to the TF domain, we pro-
pose to use entropy and concentration measures as features
to measure the spread of energy across the TF surface [2],
[5], [27]. As opposed to the conventional Shannon entropy,
Renyi entropy has been selected due to its ability to handle
positive as well as non-positive distributions. Renyi entropy
is dened as [19]:
 
1 C[n, k]
H (C) = log2   (3)
1 n n k C[n, k]
k
where > 0 is the order, and n and k are the discrete time
and frequency indices.
 Entropy is well-dened for the TFD
as long as n k C [n, k] > 0.
Concentration measures have also been used to evaluate
TFDs [22]. Contrary to the entropy, concentration measure
is a statistic on how concentrated a signal is and is dened
as [22]:
  p1 p
   C [n, k] 
M [C] =    (4)
 C[n, k] 
n k n k
where p > 1. Furthermore, small values for p, p < 4, are
preferred since high p values can emphasize small energy
values disproportionately.
Lastly, common statistical moments, such as the mean,
variance and skewness, can also be extracted from the
TF domain. One way to do this is to convert the time-
frequency surface into a vector and compute the well-known
mean, variance, and skewness measures as dened in the 1-
dimensional time domain.
III. METHODOLOGY
A ow chart of the entire change-point detection algorithm
that was analyzed in this paper. Section III-B will discuss
the data pre-processing methods. Section III-C will discuss
the feature extraction methods used to obtain the features.
Section III-D will discuss the event detection algorithm used
to determine the change-points in the data, and thus the
different health states.
III-A. Data
The data for this work was provided by the FEMTO-
ST Institute in Besancon, France, via their PRONOSTIA
experiment. On this platform, the accelerated degradation of


Fig. 1. Flow chart of proposed event detection algorithm
Table I. Operating Condition Specications
Operating Radial Speed No. of No. of
Condition Load (N) (RPM) Training Sets Testing Sets
1 4000 1800 2 5
2 4200 1650 2 5
3 5000 1500 2 1
bearings was performed, from start to failure. Sensors were
placed on the bearings in order to obtain real data over the
entire degradation process. The two types of sensor signals
used to monitor the bearings health were temperature and
vibration. Two accelerometers were placed on the bearings:
one on the horizontal and one on the vertical and the signals
were sampled at 25.6 Hz. The temperature signal, conversely,
was sampled at 10Hz. Both of these signals were provided
for further signal processing techniques. The entire overview
of the PRONOSTIA set up is shown in Fig. 2.
As a part of the experiment, 3 different operating condi-
tions were explored, in which radial load and speed were
varied. The different conditions can be seen in Table 1. A
total of 17 run-to-failure datasets were given. 6 were for
training purposes and the remaining 11 were truncated for
testing purposes [15].
III-B. Data Pre-Processing
Although bearings are rotating elements, and most of
the vibration data contains periodic motion, as the fault
progresses the stochastic nature of bearing degradation in-
curs a lot of noise. Due to the amount of noise found
in the original vibration data, denoising techniques were
considered. It has been shown in previous work that wavelet
denoising using the discrete Meyer wavelet works well to
denoise bearing vibration data [1]. The type of denoising
Fig. 2. Overview of PRONOSTIA set up [15].

Horizontal Raw Vibration Data
4
Acceleration
2
2
0 0.02 0.04 0.06
Time (s)
0.08 0.1
Vertical Raw Vibration Data
2
Acceleration
1
1
2
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1
Time (s)
Fig. 3. Raw Data of Initial Vibration Signal
used in this paper entails soft SURE thresholding, with scale
dependent thresholds and 5 levels of decomposition.
Furthermore, the two accelerometer signals were com-
bined into one by considering their magnitude
T = X2 + Y 2 (5)
where X and Y are the horizontal and vertical vibration data,
respectively.
III-C. Feature Extraction
As stated before, in section II-B, features were extracted
from TF domain representations of the bearing vibration
signals. In Fig. 3, the raw vibration data of the initial sample
is shown for both the vertical and horizontal axis. Their
corresponding TF representations can be seen in Fig. 4. An
example of the bearing sample at failure for training set 1
can be seen in both the time and TF domain representations
in Figs. 5 and 6, respectively. We noticed two phenomena
that were evident across all training sets in the horizontal
data as the fault progressed. First, there was a shift from
a signicant amount of concentrated energy, at the start,
to impulsive energy distribution, at failure, in the 160-
200 Hz frequency band. Second, there was a shift from
insignicant energy to a large amount of energy in the 236-
256 Hz and 0-40 Hz frequency bands. These three frequency
bands were explored in feature extraction, using entropy
and concentration measures to capture these trends and the
resulting features had clear trends across time which were
present even when using the combined magnitude data.
III-D. Event Detection
Event detection was used to determine a change in the data
to signify different health states. There are many different
ways to determine these change points, but in this work we
utilize the Z-score as dened in [3]. First we constructed
an F T feature matrix, , where F is the number of
features and T is the total number of time points. Next, we
 Magnitude of Accelerometers Magnitude of Accelerometers w/ Denoising
Horizontal Vibrations 4 3
0.2
240
3.5
200 2.5
Frequency (Hz)

0.1

160 3

0 2
120

Acceleration
Acceleration
2.5
80
0.1
2 1.5
40

0.2 1.5
500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1
Time (samples)
1
Vertical Vibrations 0.5
0.1
240
0.5

200
Frequency (Hz)

0.05 0 0
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
160 time (samples) time (samples)
0
120

80
0.05 (a) Before Denoising (b) After Denoising
40

0.1
500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Time (samples)

Fig. 7. Magnitude of the accelerometers at an initial sample

of training set 2: a) before denoising, b) after denoising using
Fig. 4. Choi-Williams Transformation of Initial Horizontal discrete Meyer wavelet
Vibration Signal with = 10

Horizontal Raw Vibration Data is compared to an average of all the previous W  principal

W
40

eigenvectors, denoted as r(t 1) = W1  u(t i). The Z-

Acceleration

20

0
i=1
20
score is given as Z(t) = 1 u(t)T r(t 1). Thus, if u(t) is
40
0 0.02 0.04
Time (s)
0.06 0.08 0.1
dramatically different from r(t1), their dot product will be
40
Vertical Raw Vibration Data
0, producing a Z-score of 1. If u(t) and r(t 1) are similar,
their dot product will be close to 1, producing a Z-score
Acceleration

20

0
close to 0. Due to the fact that u(t) and r(t 1) are both
20

40
unit vectors, the Z-score is always between 0 and 1. Finally,
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1
Time (s) change points can be detected as spikes, or high scores in
the plot of the Z-score.
Fig. 5. Raw Data of Final Vibration Signal
IV. RESULTS
In this work, rst wavelet denoising was performed on
constructed F F , time-varying correlation matrices, C(t),
the raw vibration data using 5 levels of decomposition with
from , using sliding windows of length W where:
  soft thresholding, using Steins Unbiased Risk estimator. In
 E[(X X )(Y Y )]  Fig. 7, we can see the magnitude of the two accelerometers

Cij (t) = X,Y = (6)
X Y  for an initial sample and the corresponding denoised signal.
Next, we extracted a total of 6 features from the TF domain:
where X and Y are (i, t W : t) and (j, t W : t),
1) Entropy from the 160-200 Hz frequency band; 2) Entropy
respectively. From these time-varying correlation matrices
from the 0-40 Hz frequency band; 3) Concentration measure
C(t), we computed the principal eigenvector, u(t). This
from the 0-40 Hz frequency band; 4) Variance from the
vector u(t) summarizes the activity of each feature in that
236-256 Hz frequency range; 5) Mean from the 236-256
time interval.
Hz frequency range; 6) Skewness from the 236-256 Hz
In order to determine the change-points, this vector u(t)
frequency range. The plots of these features can be seen
in Fig. 8. In the event detection step, a window size of
Horizontal Vibrations W = W  = 100 samples was used across all training sets.
0.2
240

200
It is also assumed that a change-point occurs in a particular
Frequency (Hz)

0.1

160

120
0
training set if the Z-score increases beyond a threshold, given
80

40
0.1 by (Zn ) + (Zn ) where Zn = [Z1 Z2 . . . Zn ] and n is the
500 1000 1500
Time (samples)
2000 2500
0.2
number of samples in the training set, is the mean and
240
Vertical Vibrations
0.1
is the standard deviation.
200
Frequency (Hz)

0.05

160
0
120

80
0.05
IV-A. Estimating the Health States
40

500 1000 1500 2000 2500

0.1 Applying the proposed change point detection algorithm
Time (samples)
to different training sets corresponding to different operating
conditions yielded different transitions between health states.
Fig. 6. Choi-WIlliams Transformation of Final Vibration For example, in Fig. 9 we can see the Z-score results for the
Signal with = 10 rst two operating conditions. We noticed that across time,


 Skewness of 236256 Hz Band Entropy of 160200 Hz Band
5 2

4 1

3 0
Skenwess

Entropy
2 1

1 2

0 3

1 4

2 5
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
time (samples) time (samples)

(a) Skewness of 236-256 Hz Band (b) Entropy of 160-200 Hz Band (a) Training Set 1 (b) Training Set 2
Entropy of 236256 Hz Band Variance of 236256 Hz Band
2 7

1 6

5
0

4
Variance
Entropy

1
3
2
2

3
1

4 0

5 1
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
time (samples) time (samples)

(c) Entropy of 236-256 Hz Band (d) Variance of 236-256 Hz Band (c) Training Set 3 (d) Training Set 4
Mean of 236256 Hz Band Concentration Measure of 040 Hz Band
7 2

6 1.5 Fig. 9. Change-point grouping into transition stages (shaded)

5
Concentration Measure

4
1
for operating conditions 1 and 2
0.5
Mean

3
0
2 Health State Progression
0.5
5
1

0 1

1 1.5
4
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
time (samples) time (samples)
Health State

(e) Mean of 236-256 Hz Band (f) Concentration Measure of 0-40 3

Hz Band
2

Fig. 8. Features for training set 1 across time

1

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
the two training sets within the same operating condition time (samples)

showed similar trends but they were distinctly different from

the trend of the other operating condition. We also noticed Fig. 10. Health state progression for training set 2
that there were groups of change-points in close proximity to
each other as well as periods of little change throughout all
training datasets. Using this characteristic, pertaining to the datasets in operating condition 2 can be seen in Fig. 9c and
actual estimation of the health states, we reason that multiple 9d. Again, these training sets provided a different trend from
change-points within a window should be grouped together the rst operating condition, which could be attributed to
into one event. When this occurs, the period of time covered the different load speeds and forces. An overall view of the
in between the two is considered a transition stage from one health states for operating condition 2 can be seen in Fig.
state to the next. An example of this grouping, for training 11. In this operating condition, we see that the health state
set 1 in the rst operating condition, can be found in Fig. (0) is relatively longer in relation to the healthy states found
9a, where the shaded areas represent the transition stages in operating condition 1.
and the unshaded represent the estimated health states. We
noticed that the other training set in this operating condition IV-B. Performance of Multiple Features
had a similar trend in its Z-score plot over time, as can be As stated before, the time-varying trends of the features
seen in Fig. 9b. Given these similar grouping trends from used in this paper can be seen in Fig. 8. From these plots,
operating condition 1, we can build a complete overview of we can see that certain features do not provide clear trends
health states and transition stages of the bearing from start indicating multiple change-point detections. For instance,
to failure, as seen in Fig. 10. In this overview, we can see the variance and mean of the 236-256 Hz frequency band
5 distinct health states and 4 transitionary stages between would only provide one change-point, while others, such
them. From this, we can determine that there is a healthy as the two entropy features, would be advantageous for
state (0), 3 intermediary medium health states (1-3), and the multiple change-point detection due to their uctuations. In
failure state (4). The Z-score trends from the two training this section, we evaluate the use of multiple vs. few number


 Health State Progression ZScore using four variables
5 0.07
ZScore
Threshold
0.06
4

0.05
Health State

ZScore
0.04

2 0.03

0.02
1

0.01

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
time (samples)
time (samples)

Fig. 11. Health state progression for training set 3 Fig. 13. Z-Score computation using 4 features on training
set 2
ZScore using two variables
1

0.9
ZScore using six variables
0.12
ZScore
0.8
Threshold
0.7 0.1

0.6
ZScore

0.08
0.5

ZScore
0.4
0.06
0.3

0.2 0.04

0.1
0.02
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
time (samples)
0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
time (samples)

Fig. 12. Z-Score computation using 2 features on training

set 2
of features for change point detection. For instance, in Fig.
12, we can see the result of computing the Z-score using
only two (skewness of 236-256 Hz band and entropy of 160
- 200 Hz band) of these 6 features on the second training set.
The Z-Score is high throughout the entire training set. This is
because it is hard to detect change-points in signals with high
volatility, such as bearing vibration data. However, when we
use more features, we can see the change-point detection
algorithm becomes more robust to the noise and can identify
more distinct change-points. This phenomenon can be seen
as the features increase from 2 to 6 in increments of 2.
Fig. 13 shows the Z-score for the algorithm which utilizes
4 features (skewness, entropy of both freq. bands, and the
variance of 236-256 Hz band). In this plot, we can see that
the change-points become more conspicuous. Furthermore,
as the number of features is increased to 6, seen in Fig.
14, the change-points become even more apparent, as the
overall Z-scores decrease and some change-points towards
the beginning of the run are combined into one, showing that
there is a direct relationship between the number of features
used and the clarity of the change-points.
V. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, we have proposed a multivariate event
detection framework to learn the hidden health states of
bearings from unlabeled training data. We have shown that
Fig. 14. Z-Score computation using 6 features on training
set 2
these health states are not necessarily discrete and evolve
continuously over time. Moreover, we have shown how
including more relevant features for health state estimation
improves the accuracy and increases the reliability of the
state estimation. This framework may inuence and improve
the current state of the art prognosis methods. Once the
different health states are identied, typical RULs for each
health state can be determined from training data. This
information along with representative features corresponding
to each state can provide a probabilistic way of estimating
the RUL from new testing data.
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