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Question 2:
Vehicles randomly arrive at a signalized intersection to turn left. The left turn bay has the capacity for
3 vehicles. If on average 2.5 left turning vehicles arrive during the red phase, what is the probability
that the through lane will be blocked by the left turning vehicles?
Solution
Assume T is the red phase
2.5
= /
( > 3) = 1 ( 3) = 1 (0) (1) (2) (3)
2.50 2.5
(0) = 0!
=0.082
(1) = 0.205
(2) = 0.257
(3) = 0.214
( > 3) = 1 0.758 = 0.242 24.2%
Transportation and land use planning decisions interact as the use of land will determine the demands
of travel, the modes people use and ultimately guide the necessary infrastructure. It is the objective of
the transport planner to ensure that the transport network and management is integrated with the land
use to ensure that all members of the community have satisfactory accessibility to perform day to day
activities.
Land use is an indicator to how much traffic will be generated from a region of a city, the first step of
the four-step planning process (see figure 1). The focus of the trip generation step is to identify how
many trips will originate and terminate in each region and this is carried out by developing models
and relationships between the factors that generate trips and the number of trips being generated.
In order to properly define the specifics of the traffic generation process, we first need to define the
scope and resolution of the problem:
TIME SCOPE: What time period are we focusing our study on?
SPATIAL RESOLUTION: What is the spatial resolution of our study? (i.e., what is the smallest
geographic unit we will consider?)
Trip generation models focus on using existing data to forecast the future number of trips. The model
developed will directly depend on the type/amount/quality of data at hand. Below we will go through
the process of developing two such models from scratch.
You will notice that for the household size variable, we grouped all households of size 2 and 3
together. In general, this is done when the difference in trips between households of size 2 and 3 is
negligible. This method can also be used to deal with continuous variables, which will be illustrated in
the problem below.
Household Income # of
Index Trips
1 20000 5
2 30000 4
3 45000 3
E 15000 6
5 55000 2
6 40000 4
7 25000 3
8 70000 2
9 90000 4
10 12000 2
11 120000 3
12 45000 6
13 60000 4
14 70000 3
15 40000 2
16 50000 6
17 60000 4
18 20000 3
19 50000 6
Congestington has provided you with some additional data in order to potentially improve your trip
generation process. Use the following data to develop a linear regression model. Discuss the final
form of the linear regression model and the method for developing it; demonstrators will provide the
final solution.
1 20000 3 3 5
2 30000 2 2 4
3 45000 5 1 3
e 15000 4 2 6
5 55000 3 1 2
6 40000 4 2 4
7 25000 3 1 3
8 70000 2 3 2
9 90000 3 1 4
10 12000 2 1 2
11 120000 1 2 3
12 45000 1 3 6
13 60000 2 3 4
14 70000 3 2 3
15 40000 2 1 2
16 50000 3 3 6
17 60000 2 2 4
18 20000 1 1 3
19 50000 3 2 6
Regression Equation:
1.368311355 0.00000958863 INCOME + 0.309321254 HH SIZE + 1.101058786
NUMBER OF VEHICLES
The sign of each of the coefficients gives us some intuition about the results:
- positive coefficients indicate that higher values of this variable imply more trips:
o More household members = more trips
- More vehicles in the household = more trips
- negative coefficients indicate that higher values result in less trips:
o Higher income = less trips
Do these results make sense? What would be some explanations for the sign of each of the
variables? Discuss this with the class. Here are some potential points to focus on:
Income:
- Households with higher incomes are more likely to live in comfortable homes, and may not
have as much of an incentive to make trips.
- Households with higher incomes are more likely to have 9-5 jobs which only require 2 trips
per day.
- Households with higher incomes may be more willing to pay fees associated with delivery of
goods (food, groceries, etc.)
Household size:
- More people = more activities = more trips
- Each household member will have a minimum required number of trips.
Number of Vehicles in Household:
- More vehicles in the household imply more freedom for members of the household to take
trips.