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CVEN 2401/2402 Workshop: Week 4

Trip Distribution

This week we will review the second step, trip distribution of the 4-step planning process. Trip Distribution

Trip distribution is the 2nd step of the 4-step planning process; the focus of this step is to convert the attraction and production levels at each zone (node) and convert them into origin-destination (OD) trips. The main idea behind the models for trip distribution is that we can develop methods which will split the number of trips produced (or attracted) among the available destinations (origins).

The model we will focus on today is the Gravity Model. This model is based on Newton’s law of universal gravitation:

= 1 2 2 To adapt this concept to trip distribution, we make the assumption that rather than using the masses of the objects ( 1 , 2 ), we will use the trip attraction and distribution factors; instead of using the distance ( 2 ), we will use some function that represents the difficulty of getting from origin to destination, i.e., some function of the origin-destination travel cost ( ). Finally, instead of using the gravitational constant, we will use a constant (or 2) which will help us calibrate the model so that the "right" number of trips are assigned (we will discuss what "right" means).

Question 1

Show why the correction factor,

each origin.

=

[

) ]

(

, preserves the number of trips coming out of

Solution

To prove this, we must show that

=

( )

=

since the term and are constant for all , we can move it out of the summation, leaving:

 ∑ ∑ = ∀ ( ) = ∀ ( ) ( )

[

( ) ]

[

( ) ]

=

) be equal to which is a “friction factor”

between each origin and destination pair. Therefore, substituting in the friction factor, the gravity model for trip distribution can be expressed as;

To simplify the formulation, we can let the term

1

(

=

1

) = (

[

) ]

(

Gravity Model prediction

The production constrained model is used in situations where we are much more confident on the number of trips produced than the number of trips attracted (which is common). While the number of people in a household is normally fixed, the number of people in a workplace may change depending on clients and other visitors, and the size of the workplace in terms of employees may change much more rapidly (and randomly) than that of a household.

In the production constrained model we first assume that the number of trips produced at each origin will be exactly the number of trips that leave each origin; however, we do not place this same restriction on trips attracted/number of trips that arrive at each destination. Having made this assumption, the model then predicts that the number of trips from each destination to each origin will be given by the following equation:

1

=

[

) ]

(

( )

The term

1

[

) ]

(

which we will refer to as , is a factor associated with each origin, which is equal

to the inverse of the sum of the expression

we ensure that the total number of trips coming out of each origin is preserved, and we split the trips

) over all destinations. By using this particular factor,

(

coming out of a specific origin in a manner that is proportional to the value

( )

The production constrained trip distribution model only ensures that trip productions match initial forecasts. Thus, in order to preserve the production and attraction forecasts, row and column factoring is conducted until a given threshold is reached for RF and CF:

=

and =

Question 2

Using the gravity model

Following the traffic generation assessment of the newly proposed suburb Freeflow, The Traffix Municipality has hired you to forecast the trip distribution of the entire Municipality using the following data where the region has been separated into 3 zones (shown in Figure 1). Figure 1: Zone Division Traffix

The expected productions and attractions for the zones are given in the following table:

 Zone 1 2 3 Total Productions 250 450 300 1000 Attractions 395 180 425 1000

The expected travel times between the zones are described using the following matrix:

 Zone 1 2 3 1 6 4 2 2 2 8 3 3 1 3 5

The relationship with the travel time and the friction factor has been empirically derived as shown below;

 Travel Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Friction Factor 82 52 50 41 39 26 20 13 9 5 value

Determine the trip distribution throughout Traffix using row and column factoring approach

Solution

The intention is to determine the zone-to-zone trips and fill out the following trip distribution matrix. Remember that

 Destinations Productions 1 2 3 ( ) 1 250 Origins 2 450 3 300 Attractions ( ) 395 180 425 Friction Factor Table; = ∑ ∀ Zone 1 2 3 1 26 41 52 2 52 13 50 3 82 50 39 250 × 395 × 26 = 64.59 Iteration 1: 11 = (395 × 26 + 180 × 41 + 425 × 52) 1 2 3 1 11 = 250 × 395 × 26 12 = 250 × 180 × 41 13 = 250 × 425 × 52 (395 × 26 + (395 × 26 + (395 × 26 + 180 × 41 + 180 × 41 + 180 × 41 + 425 × 52) 425 × 52) 425 × 52) = 64.59 = 46.42 = 138.99 2 21 = 450 × 395 × 52 22 = 450 × 180 × 13 22 = 450 × 425 × 50 (395 × 52 + (395 × 52 + (395 × 52 + 180 × 13 + 180 × 13 + 180 × 13 + 425 × 50) 425 × 50) 425 × 50) = 209.45 = 23.86 = 216.69 3 31 = 300 × 395 × 82 32 = 300 × 180 × 50 33 = 300 × 425 × 39 (395 × 82 + (395 × 82 + (395 × 82 + 180 × 50 + 180 × 50 + 180 × 50 + 425 × 39) 425 × 39) 425 × 39) = 167.64 = 46.58 = 85.78
 Destinations Observed Estimated 1 2 3 Productions Production 1 65 46 139 250 250 Origins 2 209 24 217 450 450 3 168 46 86 300 300 Estimated Attractions 442 116 442 1000 1000 Observed Attractions 395 180 425 (395/442)= (180/116) (425/442) 0.89 =1.55 =0.96

After the first iteration, the production values match but the attraction values differ greatly from the observed attraction. Therefore, in the table above, the column factors ( have been computed to complete the second iteration.

Iteration 2:

 1 2 3 1 11 = 65 ∗ 0.89 12 = 46 ∗ 1.55 13 = 139 ∗ 0.96 = 58.088 = 71.38 = 133.65 2 21 = 209 ∗ 0.89 22 = 24 ∗ 1.55 22 = 217 ∗ 0.96 = 186.78 = 37.24 = 208.65 3 31 = 168 ∗ 0.89 = 150.14 32 = 46 ∗ 1.55 33 = 86 ∗ 0.96 = 72.93 = 82.69
 Destinations Observed Estimated 1 2 3 Productions production 1 58 71 134 250 263 0.95057 Origins 2 187 37 209 450 433 1.039261 3 150 72 83 300 305 0.983607 Calculated Attractions 395 180 425 1000 Estimated Attraction 395 180 425

After the second iteration, the attraction values match, but the production values differ greatly from the observed production. Therefore, in the table above, the row factors ( have been computed to complete the third iteration.

Iteration 3:

 1 2 3 1 11 = 58 ∗ 0.95 12 = 71 ∗ 0.95 = 67.49 13 = 134 ∗ 0.95 = 55.13 = 127.38 2 21 = 187 ∗ 1.04 22 = 37 ∗ 1.04 22 = 209 ∗ 1.04 = 194.34 = 38.45 = 217.21 3 31 = 150 ∗ 0.98 = 147.54 32 = 72 ∗ 0.98 33 = 83 ∗ 0.98 = 70.82 = 81.64 Destinations Observed Estimated 1 2 3 Productions production 1 55 67 127 250 250 Origins 2 194 38 217 450 450 3 148 71 82 300 300 Calculated Attractions 395 180 425 1000 1000 Estimated Attraction 395 180 425