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CVEN 2401/2402 Workshop: Week 4

Trip Distribution

This week we will review the second step, trip distribution of the 4-step planning process.

step, trip distribution of the 4-step planning process. Trip Distribution Trip distribution is the 2nd step

Trip Distribution

Trip distribution is the 2nd step of the 4-step planning process; the focus of this step is to convert the attraction and production levels at each zone (node) and convert them into origin-destination (OD) trips. The main idea behind the models for trip distribution is that we can develop methods which will split the number of trips produced (or attracted) among the available destinations (origins).

The model we will focus on today is the Gravity Model. This model is based on Newton’s law of universal gravitation:

= 1 2 2 To adapt this concept to trip distribution, we make the assumption that rather than using the masses of the objects ( 1 , 2 ), we will use the trip attraction and distribution factors; instead of using the distance ( 2 ), we will use some function that represents the difficulty of getting from origin to destination, i.e., some function of the origin-destination travel cost ( ). Finally, instead of using the gravitational constant, we will use a constant (or 2) which will help us calibrate the model so that the "right" number of trips are assigned (we will discuss what "right" means).

Question 1

Show why the correction factor,

each origin.

=

[

) ]

(

, preserves the number of trips coming out of

Solution

To prove this, we must show that

=

( )

=

since the term and are constant for all , we can move it out of the summation, leaving:

 

 

 

=

( )

=

( )

( )

[

( ) ]

[

( ) ]

=

) be equal to which is a “friction factor”

between each origin and destination pair. Therefore, substituting in the friction factor, the gravity model for trip distribution can be expressed as;

To simplify the formulation, we can let the term

1

(

=

1

) = (

[

) ]

(

Gravity Model prediction

The production constrained model is used in situations where we are much more confident on the number of trips produced than the number of trips attracted (which is common). While the number of people in a household is normally fixed, the number of people in a workplace may change depending on clients and other visitors, and the size of the workplace in terms of employees may change much more rapidly (and randomly) than that of a household.

In the production constrained model we first assume that the number of trips produced at each origin will be exactly the number of trips that leave each origin; however, we do not place this same restriction on trips attracted/number of trips that arrive at each destination. Having made this assumption, the model then predicts that the number of trips from each destination to each origin will be given by the following equation:

1

=

[

) ]

(

( )

The term

1

[

) ]

(

which we will refer to as , is a factor associated with each origin, which is equal

to the inverse of the sum of the expression

we ensure that the total number of trips coming out of each origin is preserved, and we split the trips

) over all destinations. By using this particular factor,

(

coming out of a specific origin in a manner that is proportional to the value

( )

The production constrained trip distribution model only ensures that trip productions match initial forecasts. Thus, in order to preserve the production and attraction forecasts, row and column factoring is conducted until a given threshold is reached for RF and CF:

=

and =

Question 2

Using the gravity model

Following the traffic generation assessment of the newly proposed suburb Freeflow, The Traffix Municipality has hired you to forecast the trip distribution of the entire Municipality using the following data where the region has been separated into 3 zones (shown in Figure 1).

region has been separated into 3 zones (shown in Figure 1). Figure 1: Zone Division Traffix

Figure 1: Zone Division Traffix

The expected productions and attractions for the zones are given in the following table:

Zone

1

2

3

Total

Productions

250

450

300

1000

Attractions

395

180

425

1000

The expected travel times between the zones are described using the following matrix:

Zone

1

2

3

1

6

4

2

2

2

8

3

3

1

3

5

The relationship with the travel time and the friction factor has been empirically derived as shown below;

Travel

                   

Time

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Friction

                   

Factor

82

52

50

41

39

26

20

13

9

5

value

Determine the trip distribution throughout Traffix using row and column factoring approach

Solution

The intention is to determine the zone-to-zone trips and fill out the following trip distribution matrix. Remember that

     

Destinations

   

Productions

 
 

1

 

2

 

3

 

( )

 

1

       

250

Origins

2

       

450

3

       

300

 

Attractions ( )

 

395

 

180

 

425

 
 

 

Friction Factor Table;

 

=

 

Zone

 

1

 

2

 

3

 
 

1 26

 

41

 

52

 
 

2 52

   

13

50

 
 

3 82

 

50

 

39

 
 

250 × 395 × 26

= 64.59

Iteration 1:

 

11 =

(395 × 26 + 180 × 41 + 425 × 52)

 

1

2

3

 

1 11 =

250

× 395 × 26

   

12 =

250

× 180 × 41

 

13 =

250

× 425 × 52

(395 × 26 +

   

(395 × 26 +

 

(395 × 26 +

   

180

× 41 +

 

180

× 41 +

 

180

× 41 +

425

× 52)

425

× 52)

425

× 52)

 

= 64.59

   

=

46.42

 

=

138.99

 

2 21 =

450

× 395 × 52

   

22 =

450

× 180 × 13

 

22 =

450

× 425 × 50

(395 × 52 +

   

(395 × 52 +

 

(395 × 52 +

   

180

× 13 +

 

180

× 13 +

 

180

× 13 +

425

× 50)

425

× 50)

425

× 50)

 

=

209.45

   

=

23.86

 

=

216.69

 

3 31 =

300

× 395 × 82

   

32 =

300

× 180 × 50

 

33 =

300

× 425 × 39

(395 × 82 +

   

(395 × 82 +

 

(395 × 82 +

   

180

× 50 +

 

180

× 50 +

 

180

× 50 +

425

× 39)

425

× 39)

425

× 39)

 

=

167.64

   

=

46.58

 

= 85.78

   

Destinations

Observed

Estimated

1

2

3

Productions

Production

   

1 65

46

139

250

250

Origins

 

2 209

24

217

450

450

 

3 168

46

86

300

300

Estimated

         

Attractions

442

116

442

1000

1000

Observed

         

Attractions

395

180

425

 

(395/442)=

(180/116)

(425/442)

   

0.89

=1.55

=0.96

After the first iteration, the production values match but the attraction values differ greatly from the observed attraction. Therefore, in the table above, the column factors ( have been computed to complete the second iteration.

Iteration 2:

 

1

2

3

1

11 = 65 ∗ 0.89

12 = 46 ∗ 1.55

13 = 139 ∗ 0.96

=

58.088

=

71.38

=

133.65

2

21 = 209 ∗ 0.89

22 = 24 ∗ 1.55

22 = 217 ∗ 0.96

=

186.78

=

37.24

=

208.65

3

31 = 168 ∗ 0.89 = 150.14

32 = 46 ∗ 1.55

33 = 86 ∗ 0.96

=

72.93

 

= 82.69

   

Destinations

Observed

Estimated

1

2

3

Productions

production

 

1

58

71

134

250

263

0.95057

Origins

 

2 187

37

209

450

433

1.039261

 

3 150

72

83

300

305

0.983607

Calculated

           

Attractions

395

180

425

1000

Estimated

           

Attraction

395

180

425

After the second iteration, the attraction values match, but the production values differ greatly from the observed production. Therefore, in the table above, the row factors ( have been computed to complete the third iteration.

Iteration 3:

   

1

 

2

 

3

1

11 = 58 ∗ 0.95

 

12 = 71 ∗ 0.95 = 67.49

13 = 134 ∗ 0.95

 

= 55.13

 

=

127.38

2

21 = 187 ∗ 1.04

 

22 = 37 ∗ 1.04

 

22 = 209 ∗ 1.04

 

= 194.34

 

=

38.45

 

=

217.21

3

31 = 150 ∗ 0.98 = 147.54

 

32 = 72 ∗ 0.98

 

33 = 83 ∗ 0.98

   

=

70.82

 

= 81.64

   

Destinations

 

Observed

 

Estimated

1

 

2

 

3

Productions

production

 

1

55

 

67

 

127

 

250

 

250

Origins

 

2 194

 

38

 

217

 

450

 

450

 

3 148

 

71

 

82

 

300

 

300

Calculated

         

Attractions

395

 

180

 

425

 

1000

 

1000

Estimated

         

Attraction

395

 

180

 

425