Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
PostedMonday,22MaybyDebasishBose
To facilitate the discussion we are going to refer three BSE-listed Indian compa-
nies -
Infosys
Leaving out Infosys, even though both companies would have given fantastic re-
turns, the volatility of Vardhman Holdings Ltd is lesser. Standard measure of
volatility - standard deviation - is too granular and downright wrong, IMO.
> sd(t.Vardhman)
[1] 662.1091
> sd(t.Triveni)
[1] 11.22787
RSI
There are some patterns in RSI plots, but not enough to differentiate these two
companies on the ground of growth and volatility through a singular metric.
COPPOCK CURVE
The Coppock curve or Coppock indicator is a technical analysis indicator for long-
term stock market investors created by E.S.C. Coppock, first published in Barron's
Magazine on October 15, 1962. This is a "behaviourally"-inspired momentum
indicator.
MACD
Again, this is heavily used for short-term momentum indicator for trading, but not
sure whether it fits the bill for a long-term indicator (although period could be re-
placed with month for long-term indicator. example - 12-period EMA becomes 12-
month EMA etc.)
LM2SCORE
Add a volatility factor (divide by). This is just standard-deviation of the first-
order discrete difference (scaled by mean)
volatility_measure <- function(t) {
sd(diff(t), na.rm = TRUE)/abs(mean(diff(t), na.rm = TRUE))
}
Complete code -
# Smooth it
t.smoothed <- EMA(t, n = 30)
plot(index(t.smoothed), coredata(t.smoothed),main =
paste(c("EMA smoothed - ", ticker), collapse = ""))
reg <- lm(coredata(t.smoothed) ~ index(t.smoothed))
abline(reg, col = "red")
par(old.par)
round((momentum_indicator(reg, days = momentum_window) /
volatility_measure(t))*100,2)
}
Now results -
Triveni
> momentum_scoring(ticker = "BSE/BOM533655", momentum_window
= 200, look_back_window = years(2))
[1] 0.11
Vardhman
Infosys
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