Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225 238

www.elsevier.com/locate/geomorph

Cutoffs galore!: occurrence and causes of multiple

cutoffs on a meandering river
J.M. Hooke *
Department of Geography, University of Portsmouth, Buckingham Building, Lion Terrace, Portsmouth, PO1 3HE, UK

Received 4 August 2003; received in revised form 22 December 2003; accepted 27 December 2003
Available online 13 February 2004

Abstract

The creation of cutoffs and of oxbow lakes is a well-known phenomenon of meandering rivers, but views on the extent to
which they are inherent in meander behaviour have varied. Assumptions of meander behaviour have shifted from those of
stability and equilibrium to recognition of gradual evolution and increased complexity of form. Alternative explanations of
cutoff occurrence are discussed here in relation to a remarkable set of cutoffs that occurred in one reach of the River Bollin, UK,
for which long-term historical evidence of meander evolution existed and which has been monitored for change and processes
over the last 20 years. The cutoffs occurred during the high floods of winter 2000 2001. A series of hypotheses is examined,
including the occurrence of floods and effects of hydrological changes. Although the flood events actually caused the cutoffs,
the long-term pattern accords with ideas of chaotic behaviour and sinuosity of a river reaching a critical state at which clustering
of meander cutoffs takes place. It is suggested that the occurrence of the cutoffs can be explained as inherent in meander
behaviour.
D 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Keywords: River Bollin; UK; River meanders; Flood impacts; Channel pattern; Channel changes

1. Introduction emphasised the importance of observable earth sur-

Various explanations for the occurrence of mean-
der cutoffs have been put forward in the literature,
ranging from the effect of inhomogeneities in bank
material (e.g. Friedkin, 1945) to changes in effective
discharge controlling equilibrium morphology and
causing adjustment (Mosley, 1975a). More recently,
ideas of continuous evolution and inherent instability
associated with nonlinear behaviour have been sug-
gested (Stolum, 1996). Phillips (2003) has recently
* Tel.: +44-2392-842482; fax: +44-2392-842512.
E-mail address: janet.hooke@port.ac.uk (J.M. Hooke).
face forms being the primary source of ideas in
nonlinear geomorphology.
The purpose of this paper is to explore different
explanations of the occurrence of cutoffs on a river
through their applicability to one case study. The
opportunity to investigate and test alternative ideas
is provided by a reach on the River Bollin in NW
England on which a remarkable set of cutoffs oc-
curred within a short time period. It is a river on which
much previous research has taken place and on which
much cited papers on channel changes have been
written (e.g. Knighton, 1972, 1975; Mosley, 1975a).
A series of hypotheses is examined in relation to the

0169-555X/$ - see front matter D 2004 Published by Elsevier B.V.

doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2003.12.006
226 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238
evidence, and the feasibility of the different explan-
ations is discussed.
The mechanisms of formation of cutoffs and the
explanation of occurrence were investigated in rela-
tion to the Mississippi River in the early-mid 20th
century, through both field evidence and physical
laboratory simulation (e.g. Friedkin, 1945). The ef-
fect of the formation of cutoffs and oxbow lakes on
meanders was also recognised; on the Mississippi
and other rivers, the oxbow lakes gradually become
filled with sediment and eventually form more resis-
tant clay plugs in the floodplain, which cause vari-
ation in rates of bend migration (Fisk, 1947). A
component of regularity that is scaled to the river
is readily apparent in most meandering courses, and
many statistical analyses of the 1960s and 1970s
explored these relationships (e.g. Leopold and Wol-
man, 1960; Carlston, 1965). Evolution of meander
forms, involving an increase in complexity and a
lack of stability in wavelength, sinuosity and ampli-
tude characteristics, was recognised by Brice (1974)
who produced a qualitative model and by Hickin
(1974), Keller (1972), Hooke (1977) and others from
empirical work. Bagnold (1960) had identified that
there were limits to curvature of bends (and this was
well known in engineering). Hickin and Nanson
(1975) demonstrated a pattern of nonlinear increase
in the rate of migration or the rate of erosion of
bends with increasing on Canadian rivers curvature.
Hooke (1987, 1991, 1997) applied this concept to
UK rivers.
The occurrence of multiple cutoffs within short
reaches and net change in sinuosity have been
reported for several rivers. Most authors explain the
particular incidence of cutoffs by changes in discharge
causing an adjustment of planform. Many of these
changes in discharge are attributed to human activi-
ties. Case studies include that of Mosley (1975a,b)
who studied the occurrence of cutoffs on the same
river as in this paper but in a reach about 8 km
downstream. He attributed the concentrated occur-
rence of multiple cutoffs largely to the impact of
urbanisation upstream. Erskine and Warner (1988)
ascribed changes in sinuosity on the Hunter River,
Australia, to climatic variations and an alternation
between flood-dominated and drought-dominated
regimes, though there were also artificial cutoffs and
secondary responses to these.
In recent years, more sophisticated, quantitative
models of meander evolution have been developed,
most of them based on fundamental hydraulics (e.g.
Parker and Andrews, 1986; Howard and Knutson,
1984; Stolum, 1996), and these do produce cutoffs as
an integral part of the meander evolution. Certain
sizes of loop tend to be eliminated (e.g. Johannesen
and Parker, 1989; Howard, 1992). It has been sug-
gested that results of fractal analysis and analysis of
statistical distributions of cutoffs from the models
support hypotheses of intrinsic order in meanders
(e.g. Nikora, 1991; Stolum, 1998).
Stolum (1996) has suggested that the formation of
cutoffs is part of the process of self-organisation of the
system and that the cutoffs represent a criticality state.
The idea of self-organised criticality originates from
the work of Bak et al. (1987) and involves the pro-
position that many natural systems evolve to a critical
state at which a minor event can be propagated through
the system, transforming its state. It is a holistic theory
and the inherent behaviour becomes an explanation in
itself. Stolum (1996) used a theoretical simulation
model to show that river meanders will initially
increase in sinuosity to a maximum, critical state, then
decrease by cutoffs and then oscillate in sinuosity to
maintain a self-organised state. In the subcritical state,
isolated cutoffs may occur, but, in the supercritical
state, clusters of cutoffs will occur. Phillips (1999) has
already cited the longer-term evolution of the mean-
ders in this reach, based on Hooke and Redmonds
(1992) evidence, as not easily explained except by
nonlinear dynamical system theory.
2. Evidence and methods
In the winter of 2000 2001, on a short stretch of
the River Bollin in NW England, a series of cutoffs
took place, transforming the channel pattern and
greatly reducing its previously high sinuosity. This is
a river on which previous work had been done by
Mosley (1975a,b), though farther downstream, by
Knighton (1972, 1973) and others. The study reach
is located upstream of the town of Wilmslow, on the
southern edge of the Manchester conurbation. The
river drains westwards off the Pennine uplands onto
the Cheshire plain. Much of the course is highly
mobile, but there are some more stable reaches,
 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238 227

Fig. 1. Aerial photograph of study reach of River Bollin, Cheshire, UK, in May 2001.

including a gorge reach downstream of Wilmslow. The
study reach has particularly high lateral mobility and
the meanders are relatively unconstrained except for
fringing river terraces. It is a reach of river that had
been monitored by Hooke (1995) for 20 years and in
which the processes, and effects and recover from two
previous cutoffs, had been studied. The river in the
study reach is about 8 m wide, flowing in an open
floodplain through highly erodible alluvium. The
banks are composite, comprising cobble-sized material

Fig. 2. Map of river course and cutoffs with dates, on study reach of River Bollin.
228 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238

at the base and sandy material above. Numerous old
channels are present within the floodplain, but no
resistant clay plugs have been detected.
In early May 2001, aerial photography was com-
missioned to enable detailed mapping of the changes
and further fieldwork was undertaken in June/July.
The historical change of the course had already been
compiled from historical maps (Hooke and Redmond,
1992). The 2001 course and also that for 1984 were
mapped accurately by photogrammetry and courses of
all dates were rectified and compiled onto a common
grid. Sinuosity, rate of change, curvature and loop
dimensions were measured from the planforms. Evi-
dence for mechanisms of change in 2000 2001 was
derived from field measurements of channel morphol-
ogy and sedimentology and from monitoring of pro-
cesses within the reach.
3. Results
Fig. 1 shows the central part of the study reach on 2
May 2001. Fig. 2 is a map of the same reach with all the
remnant cutoffs dated. During the 2000 2001 winter

Fig. 3. Photographs of (upper panel) narrow neck and impending cutoff and (lower panel) bank erosion and sedimentation, River Bollin study
reach.
 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238 229

season, four major cutoffs took place in a 600-m reach

of channel (valley distance). One other cutoff had taken
place in winter 1998 1999, and another two have
occurred since. The cutoffs are all neck cutoffs formed
by the rapid bank erosion of bends (Fig. 3). The
complex sequence of cutoffs in 2000 2001 can be
detected from the evidence of the resulting features and
the degree of sedimentation in the cutoffs. No eyewit-
ness accounts of the actual cutoffs are available.
The sequence of changes in the central portion of
the reach is shown in Fig. 4. It can be seen that in this
300-m section in 1998, there were eight loops. In
1998, the loop at the downstream end at A (Fig. 4) cut
through. In 2000 2001, the loop at B (Fig. 4) must
have cut off first as indicated by the degree of
sedimentation and less fresh forms. The neck at C
(Fig. 4) must have cut through next. This would have
created a great steepening of the channel at C because
of the length of loop (215 m) that was cut off. Profile
survey indicates the height difference would have
been c. 0.4 m. It is likely that the steep riffle thus
created would have rapidly retreated upstream (to
where a steep riffle is now present) resulting in the
channel at D (Fig. 4) not only with a very sharp bend,
but also with a steep gradient (0.004 compared with
0.0013 previously). The erosive force on the bank
would have been considerable, and therefore this
quickly cut through to the old channel as the cutoff
at D (Fig. 4). This then created a portion of channel
between D and C which was actually flowing in the
reverse direction than it had previously! In winter
2001 2002, the bend at E cutoff and the neck at F had
narrowed to < 1 m, so a cutoff back into the old
channel again was imminent and this took place in
2002. This means that on several of the bends, there
have not just been simple cutoffs but multiple cutoffs
Fig. 4. Sequence of development of series of cutoffs 2000 2002,
within a short period of time. Overall, the channel
River Bollin.
gradient increased from 0.0031 to 0.0043 in the
central portion over the winter 2000 2001 and still
further since then. bars. Multiple cobble and gravel bars were formed at B
The River Bollin in this reach has very high rates of creating a braided section, and downstream of B a
bank erosion in the sandy and gravelly alluvium, with large gravel bar was formed by lateral movement of the
bank erosion often occurring several times a year. The channel due to the change in channel orientation
river carries a high bed load, as is evidenced by the upstream. The degree and rapidity of the sedimentary
frequent deposition of fresh cobbles to fine sand sedi- infilling of a cutoff tends to depend partly on the angle
ments (Fig. 3 lower panel). Rapid deposition took of the cutoff with respect to the main channel (Hooke,
place in the entrances to the cutoffs and in the areas 1995) and mostly on the channel connectivity and
of channel shifting. This included the formation of new backflow influence from the main channel (Piegay et
230 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238

al., 2000). The usual pattern is for the upstream limb to Table 1
fill with sediment more rapidly and effect the closure Sinuosity of the River Bollin channel in the study reach, 1840 2002
of the old channel, and for sedimentation in the Date Sinuosity
downstream limb to be much slower (Hooke, 1995). 1840 1.52
This is visible in all three of the distinct cutoffs, at A, B 1871 1.72
1907 2.36
and C. All of the cutoffs were produced by rapid
1936 2.79
erosion on the downstream apices of bends. Succes- 1965 2.88
sive surveys annually over the past 20 years have 1970 2.50
shown that the necks narrow progressively, the rate 1979 2.92
often accelerating as the curve of the bend sharpens 1984 2.63
1989 2.49
(Fig. 3 upper panel). Previous work on two cutoffs on
1999 2.15
this same reach of river (Hooke, 1995), which included 2001 1.55
detailed observations and surveys before and after 2002 1.40
cutoff, indicated that the actual cut through a narrow
neck may take place in quite a moderate flow, but that
the change of course and the sedimentation during the ous cutoffs in this reach. The sequence of change in
event are very extensive and rapid. It has been calcu- the meandering pattern is documented in Fig. 5, and
lated from observation of freshly deposited material the dates of occurrence of cutoffs since 1840 are
over successive winters and comparison with flows shown in Fig. 2. It can been seen that the frequency of
occurring as well as from the work of Knighton (1975) cutoffs has increased. No cutoffs took place between
that discharges of c. 15 m3 s 1 (as measured at the 1840 and 1936, three between 1936 and 1970, of
nearby gauge) and above can carry cobble-sized ma- which one was in action in 1970, as shown on the
terial. Several competent flows occurred in the winter Ordinance Survey (OS) topographic map of that date,
of 2000 2001 (see Fig. 6). then three between 1980 and 1990, and six between
1998 and 2001. Sinuosity of the reach increased from
1.52 in 1840 to a maximum of 2.92 in 1979 and has
4. Longer-term sequence of cutoffs and changes in since declined, most markedly in 2000 2001, to a
sinuosity value of 1.4 (Table 1). The changes documented by
the historical maps are real; the lower sinuosity
Historical mapping over a period of 160 years and indicated by the 1840 maps is not simply due to less
monitoring over 20 years provide evidence of previ- accurate mapping. Accuracy checks have been made

Fig. 5. Historical changes of course, River Bollin.

 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238
(Hooke and Perry, 1976; Hooke and Kain, 1982), the
bend development to 1870 is entirely consistent, the
pattern of development fits that found elsewhere and
field evidence corroborates the mapped channel po-
sition in that it is all within the floodplain and zone of
former channel traces. It can be seen that individual
bends tend to migrate downstream then to tighten by
a decrease in wavelength and an increase in ampli-
tude, and then to become more complex in form in
the apex, a model which conforms with observations
elsewhere (Hickin, 1974; Hooke and Harvey, 1983;
Hooke, 1987).
5. Possible explanations and alternative hypotheses
Several possible explanations can be proposed for
why these cutoffs have taken place, in particular, why
the clustering occurred in 2000 2001 and the overall
high incidence of cutoffs in 1999 2002. These are
stated below, then each is examined in turn.
(1) Cutoffs are part of a self-organising system and
occur because the river has reached a state of
criticality and become chaotic in behaviour.
(2) The changes are simply part of natural evolution
of meanders but not necessarily chaotic behaviour.
(3) Cutoffs occurred in 1999 2000 and 2000 2001
because of exceptionally high flow.
(4) The changes are an adjustment to change in
discharge or other external conditions.
(5) The changes were triggered by an artificial cutoff
in 1990.
5.1. Cutoffs as part of a chaotic system
One view is to take the theoretical framework
provided by Nonlinear Dynamical Systems (Phillips,
1992, 1995) and hypothesise cutoffs as part of the
process of self-organisation in meanders. Stolum
(1996) produced a model in which he showed that a
meandering course evolves to a maximum sinuosity
whose limit is set by the valley width and, once that is
reached, sinuosity decreases then oscillates over time.
Using this idea and the theory of propagation of
effects as illustrated by Bak et al.s (1987) example
of avalanches on sand piles, Stolum (1996) showed
231
that, in the subcritical state, isolated cutoffs take place
but that once criticality is reached, then clusters or
avalanches of cutoffs occur. The sequence on the
Bollin over the long-term would seem to fit this
pattern to a considerable extent, with only occasional
cutoffs occurring in the period 1840 1970 (Hooke,
2003). By 1979, the sinuosity had reached a high
value of 2.92, with the loops very close together.
(Stolum calculates a maximum value of sinuosity of
3.14 in a completely unconstrained river.) The recent
cutoffs have caused a large decrease in sinuosity as
predicted by Stolums (1996) model, with some over-
shooting or overcompensation occurring. Under this
hypothesis, sinuosity would be expected to increase
again in future, unless it is regarded that it has crossed
another threshold or bifurcation into an almost braided
pattern. If the hypothesis is accepted, then the mean-
der behaviour can be explained as being autogenic
and an inherent part of a nonlinear dynamical system.
Changes require no other explanation, but the exam-
ple could be instructive in providing indications of
how these changes actually take place.
The idea that the distribution of cutoff sizes should
have a power-law distribution (Stolum, 1998) is
difficult to test here or on many rivers because of
the lack of homogeneous reaches of sufficient length
to produce a statistically viable number of (dated)
oxbow lakes.
5.2. Changes due to natural meander migration or
evolution
The changes in the planform could be regarded as
part of meander migration and evolution within the
conventional equilibrium theory of river meanders.
The occurrence of the cutoffs would be explained as
due to variations in rate of movement, probably
caused by variations in bank erodibility. The rapidity
of change on this river means that the floodplain has
been reworked and many old channels are present.
These could give rise to variations in material and
composition, though often the cutoffs, at least the
recent ones, create slightly more erodible zones be-
cause of the relatively coarse, rapidly deposited ma-
terial in the entrances and the lack of deposition in the
old apices, rather than resistant plugs. The frequency,
timing and location of cutoffs do not easily fit this
hypothesis in that cutoffs are not scattered over time
232 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238
in the period of the 150 years of historical record. The
relative consistency of the meander development and
movement of the bends also does not indicate a major
impediment at a particular location. In addition, ob-
servation of many exposed bank sections over 20
years and sampling of bank material have not revealed
the presence of clay plugs or resistant fine material.
Occasional lenses of clay material have been found in
the very base of the low terrace, but these have been
restricted in horizontal and vertical extent and have
shown no sign of influencing the meander morphol-
ogy at the time. It is possible that there might be a
positive feedback and acceleration once cutoffs, with
their slightly more erodible sediment, have been
formed. This explanation quickly extends into non-
linear theory, even if in earlier research, such a
theoretical framework was not recognised. The cutoffs
could be regarded as random and noise about regu-
larities, as many systems were explained in the past
without recognition of underlying order.
Hickin (1974) originally recognised a consistent
relation between rate of migration and curvature and a
fairly consistent sequence of changes in meanders
which has since been found to fit many channels
(Hooke, 1984, 1987, 1997). The system is shown to
exhibit marked nonlinearity, though this was sug-
gested prior to formalisation of the theory of nonlinear
dynamical systems and chaos theory in geomorphol-
ogy. The occurrence is therefore seen as part of the
natural evolution of active meanders, but it does not
account for the clustering except that many of the
bends have recently reached the critical curvature for
cutoff. Why the river has developed from a low
sinuosity course in 1840 may relate to the longer-term
late-Holocene history of the area and a prior phase of
incision in the medieval-18th century period after
which the present phase of lateral channel movement
has taken place (Hooke et al., 1990).
5.3. Cutoffs due to extreme flood events
The winter of 2000 2001 was one of exceptionally
high rainfall and high magnitude floods in many parts
of Britain. Much literature in fluvial geomorphology
documents the effects of major floods and their
impacts on channel morphology, and considerable
debate has taken place about the long-lasting effects
and the relative importance of such events. Rivers
have been shown to be of varying sensitivities to large
events (Wolman and Gerson, 1978). In some environ-
ments and in certain locations or under certain con-
ditions, very large transformations of channel
morphology, particularly pattern, have taken place
and have been termed channel metamorphosis
(Schumm and Lichty, 1963). A large discharge in a
river with erodible banks would be expected to cause
bank erosion and short-term channel widening, any-
way. The cutoffs and planform alterations that have
occurred on the Bollin recently could simply be
regarded in this way, the view on metamorphosis
depending on whether transformation of the pattern
has taken place and how rapid is the recovery.
Data on discharge are available from two gauges:
(1) at Wilmslow, just downstream of the study site, for
the period 1976 2001, and (2) at Dunham Massey,
downstream of the Wilmslow urban area and channel
diversion for Manchester airport runway, for the
period 1956 2001. Analysis of instantaneous peak
values for the period of record at Wilmslow indicates
that the highest flow by a massive margin occurred in
October 1998 (45.6 m3 s 1) but that the 2000 peak
was the second highest in the 25-year record (25.0 m3
s 1) (Fig. 6). At Dunham Massey, the 1998 and 2000
peaks were near equal to each other (c. 49 m3 s 1)
and were the highest in the period 1976 1998 but
were not the highest on record, the highest having
occurred in May 1964 (63 m3 s 1) and April 1972
(60.4 m3 s 1) according to the official figures sup-
plied from the National Surface Water Archive (Table
2). However, if the duration of flows and the number
Fig. 6. Annual peak discharges for stream gauges at Dunham
Massey (1956 2001) and Wilmslow (1976 2001).
 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238 233

Table 2 s 1 and also 9 over threshold in 1998 and 6 in 1999,

Annual peak discharge (m3 s 1) at Dunham Massey and Wilmslow so that collectively, this was a very exceptional period.
gauging stations, River Bollin
All other years from 1976 had 5 or fewer peaks over
Year Dunham Massey Wilmslow
threshold except 1981 (9) and 1992 (10).
1956 39.64 It is possible therefore to explain the recent
1957 33.98
changes through the occurrence of these floods. Of
1958 30.58
1959 23.08 course, once the pattern is altered, there is a knock-on
1960 41.06 effect, which could lead to an apparent clustering.
1961 17.76 Many authors have noted the tendency for cutoffs to
1962 18.94 occur in higher flood periods, but for meandering
1963 28.18
(bend development) and migration to occur in mod-
1964 63.02
1965 43.40 erate flood periods, or for an alternation of braiding
1966 35.05 and meandering to occur (e.g. Bartholdy and Billi,
1967 33.76 2002; Brewer and Lewin, 1998; Erskine et al., 1992;
1968 41.50 Leys and Werritty, 1999). Also, it is of interest that the
1969 34.04
cutoffs observed by Mosley (1975a,b) occurred in
1970 39.56
1971 44.35 association with a flood of 67 m3 s 1 at Dunham
1972 60.43 Massey. This is not recorded in the present archive
1973 27.68 data are missing for part of that yearbut if the
1974 36.65 Mosley figure is correct, then that event was the
1975 43.95
highest on record at Dunham Massey. However,
1976 27.70 10.57
1977 38.50 14.53 Hooke (1995) on this river and others elsewhere have
1978 38.02 12.55 shown that the actual timing of neck cutoffs may not
1979 37.61 20.57 be during the highest floodsif the neck is in the state
1980 40.60 22.47 for cutoff, then this may actually be finally achieved
1981 43.46 15.55
in a much smaller event.
1982 32.02 12.33
1983 38.91 18.68 This may not be a mutually exclusive theory since
1984 43.27 16.50 any change, even driven by inherent factors, must take
1985 38.37 9.22 place in competent flow events, but this explanation
1986 46.33 20.63 recognises flood incidence as the major cause.
1987 44.04 18.35
1988 40.34 12.30
1989 33.34 11.02 5.4. Changes due to adjustment to altered effective
1990 41.64 15.30 discharge
1991 43.69 18.38
1992 37.60 11.69 A basic theory in fluvial geomorphology is that
1993 32.19 11.57
channel morphology is adjusted to discharge and
1994 38.42 12.43
1995 44.06 23.71 sediment load and that if these change, then adjust-
1996 33.73 11.16 ments of morphology will take place, assuming
1997 28.93 10.66 requisite river characteristics such as adjustable bed
1998 48.58 45.63 and banks. The literature is replete with examples of
1999 31.14 13.26
adjustment and changes over time as a result of
2000 48.65 24.97
2001 44.60 17.72 alterations in discharge. Much debate has taken place
on the effective discharge. Through much of the
1980s, many of the documented adjustments were
thought to be due to human impacts on river
of peaks over threshold at Wilmslow are examined, regimes, mainly land-use change. In recent literature,
then 2000 2001 winter stands out as quite exception- change has increasingly been attributed to climatic
al (Fig. 7). It had 12 peaks over a threshold of 10 m3 change and phases of climatic characteristics have
234 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238

Fig. 7. Number of peaks over a threshold flow of 10 m3 s 1

at Wilmslow gauging station, 1976 2001.

been identified. Incidence of large flood events can
be viewed as part of that variation at decadal time-
scales.
Analysis of the annual peak flows for the Bollin at
Wilmslow, just downstream of the study reach, indi-
cates that for the period of record, 1976 2001, there is
a net trend of slight increase in peak flow. If the record
at Dunham Massey is examined, then likewise, over
the longer period of 1956 2001, a similar slight
increase is seen (Fig. 8), though the fitted regression
lines to neither are significant (95% level). However, if
the period of 1956 1973 is analysed and a regression
is fitted, as was done by Mosley (1975b), then the
period 1956 1973 is seen to have a much steeper
trend of increase in peak discharge over that time (Fig.
8). The trend of 1976 2001 is almost exactly the same
as the long-term trend for 1956 2001 (Fig. 8). This
implies that whatever the cause of the apparent in-
crease perceived by Mosley, it has not been sustained
or has been cancelled out. It could be interpreted that
the cutoffs coincide with short periods of frequent high
flows, which begins to coincide with explanation 3,
and this raises the question of how long sustained
particular discharge characteristics have to be to con-
clude that there is a net change in effective discharge.
Mosley (1975a) investigated various causes including

Fig. 8. Fitted regression lines for flow of River Bollin at Dunham Massey, for 1956 73, 1956 2001 and 1976 2001.
 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238
Table 3
Population figures for Macclesfield District (standardised onto post-
1974 boundaries)
Date Population
1971 139 389
1981 148 823
1991 151 334
1998 153 100
changes in rainfall characteristics, population and
land-use practices and attributed the changes to an
alteration of discharge due to increased urbanisation in
the catchment. Annual rainfall has decreased slightly
over the same period of record as the discharge, 1976
2001. Population figures for the period 1971 1998
have been analysed from the census data (Table 3).
Using figures standardised onto the post-1974 bound-
aries, the population for Macclesfield District, com-
prising the major part of the catchment upstream of the
site, shows an increase of 6.8% between 1971 and
1981 and a 1.7% increase between 1981 and 1991 and
1.2% increase to 1998. Although there may be lags in
response, it seems unlikely that this accounts for the
pattern of discharge or the periodicity of the cutoffs.
There is no evidence of a step change in discharge,
over the period of record, that is sustained, as would
be expected from a land-use change. The continuity
of development of the meanders as shown by the
historical sequences does not tend to support the idea
of sudden recent adjustment unless it can be regarded
as adjustment to the recent short period of higher
flood incidence, probably mainly due to winter rain-
fall (Osborn et al., 2000), which relates back to
hypothesis 3.
5.5. Changes due to adjustment to direct interference
in channel pattern
One other possibility is that the cutoffs observed
in the period 1999 2002 are due to changes in the
planform that took place upstream. During the 1980s,
the bend represented by the cutoff marked as artificial
in Fig. 2 was rapidly extending into the river cliff and
was perceived to be threatening the public footpath
running along the top. The Bollin Valley Manage-
ment therefore decided to prevent any problem with
the footpath by creating an artificial cutoff there.
235
They reshaped the river and inserted some willow
hurdling to stabilise the redesigned curve. The river
remained fairly stable for some years, and there was
% Change
no sign of transmission of effects downstream, the
upstream part having stabilised after the very large
6.77
natural cutoff of 1980 (Fig. 2) (Hooke, 1995). To-
1.69
1.17 wards the end of the 1990s, the willow hurdling was
becoming destroyed and the river was increasingly
unrestricted and acting in a natural dynamic way in
that part. The bank protection was not such as to
severely constrain the river, and there was no sign
that the line created was unsuitable, given the
straightness created by the 1980 cutoff. The lack of
response in the 1990s could be linked to lower flows
in that period, but competent events did still occur on
this very active river and bend movement continued
elsewhere. The recent erosion is likely to be part of
the increased activity of the stream in recent years,
associated with the higher discharges of the late
1990s, coinciding with the removal and decay of
the bank protection. If the artificial cutoff had been
the cause, then adjustments would have been
expected in the immediately adjacent reaches and
much earlier in the 1990s.
6. Discussion
Various hypotheses have been put forward to
explain the clustered occurrence of the cutoffs and
the overall behaviour of the meandering channel in
this reach of the river. The feasibility of the explan-
ations must be examined in relation to the spatial and
temporal characteristics of the changes of the channel.
As has been seen above, several of the explanations
are interrelated.
The analysis indicates some coincidence of the
cutoffs with the occurrence of major floods on the
river. It is inevitable that changes will take place in
association with higher flows. Comparable extreme
flow events have not, however, always caused cut-
offs, but some of the changes have coincided with
periods of more frequent high flood peaks. The
occurrence of these higher flood peaks has been in
phases, and there is little evidence of a sustained or
step change in mean annual flood. It seems unlikely
therefore that the flood incidence is a response to
land-use change and those changes, of which the
236 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238
most likely in this catchment is urbanisation, would
not seem to account for the temporal distribution,
though could account for some progressive increase
in mean annual flood. The recent high incidence of
flood events seems to be driven by rainfall as
indicated by analysis of the 2000 floods in the UK
(Environment Agency, 2001). The extent to which it
is part of a climatic change or decadal scale climatic
variations is part of the much wider debate on impact
of global warming (Defra, 2001). The pattern and
timing of the sequence of cutoffs make it unlikely
that the artificial cutoff was the trigger to the
changes.
The field evidence indicates that the straightening
of the channel was not simply by a much larger flow
creating a near-braided channel by chute cutoffs but
took place by the series of neck cutoffs in succession.
For the changes to take place in this way requires that
the channel be in a suitable state of high sinuosity
and near intersection of the loops. It could be
regarded that, given such a state, a series of cutoffs
is inevitable. The historical evidence shows that the
meanders exhibited a large consistency and continu-
ity of evolution. There is no sign in the 160-year
period for which there is reliable evidence of the
loops or course stabilising. The evolution of the loops
conforms with the qualitative models produced in the
literature. However, that progressive increase still
requires explanation. The behaviour appears to fit
with the more quantitative model of Stolum (1996),
which is set in the context of nonlinear dynamical
theory and of self-organised criticality. If this idea is
supported, then it becomes an explanation in itself
and progressive evolution followed by oscillation of
meander bends and sinuosity is expected as inherent.
Further evidence that the occurrence of these cutoffs
was not simply due to high floods but was dependent
on the high sinuosity state of the channel is perhaps
provided by the neighbouring River Dane. That river
is similar in characteristics, with a very mobile
meandering channel along much of its piedmont
length (Hooke and Harvey, 1983). The floods of
2000 were the highest for 50 years on that river,
and yet no cutoffs and little exceptional morpholog-
ical change took place. That river has not yet reached
the same degree of sinuosity as the Bollin, although it
also shows progressive increase and some isolated
cutoffs (Hooke, 1995).
7. Conclusions
The lack of long-term discharge data makes it
difficult to prove or disprove arguments of channel
adjustment associated with behaviour over a period
longer than 50 years or so of discharge records.
However, all the evidence points to a gradual evolution
of this course, over the 150 or so years of evidence,
with an increasing sinuosity up to a maximum value
and then alternations, but with a recent massive change
in sinuosity and transformation of the pattern. Much of
the behaviour fits models of nonlinear systems behav-
iour and a system developing towards criticality which
then becomes truly chaotic. Individual meanders show
remarkably consistent behaviour, although variation in
detailed form. If the full theory is accepted, then this
becomes an explanation in itself since the changes are
regarded as inherent to a naturally unstable system. No
other cause need be invoked. The mechanisms are by
changes at the smaller scale, in pools and riffles and
local gradient. If this hypothesis was accepted, then the
pattern would be expected to continue to oscillate in
sinuosity, presumably with a significant increase in the
near future due to the very large reduction in sinuosity
recently. If the changes are due to the flood events, then
it would be expected that the channel width would
gradually decrease again and that loop wavelength
would decrease by development of new loops, and that
this condition would persist until another major flood.
If major floods continue, then the channel may remain
nearer to its present state of a wide, low sinuosity
pattern. The persistence of this would then link to the
other explanation of adjustment to a change in dis-
charge since it would be regarded that the discharge
regime has entered a new phase, mainly associated with
higher winter rainfall and increased flood incidence.
Adjustment in response to channel interference seems
an unlikely explanation, given the other changes over
the historical period and the lack of evidence for
adjustment for 10 years after the artificial cutoff in
spite of the occurrence of competent, if not extreme,
floods.
Acknowledgements
The National Water Archive service of the NERC
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology at Wallingford
 J.M. Hooke / Geomorphology 61 (2004) 225238
kindly provided the discharge data. Thanks are also
due to Robert Perry for field assistance.
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