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TraditionalDeclineAnalysisTheory
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ConceptualDefinitionofDeclineAnalysis
Declineanalysisisareservoirengineeringempiricaltechniquethatextrapolatestrendsintheproductiondatafromoiland
gaswells.ThepurposeofaDeclineanalysisistogenerateaforecastoffutureproductionratesandtodeterminethe
expectedultimaterecoverable(EUR)reserves.
Figure1:Rateversuscumulativegasproduction
Typically,declineanalysisisconductedonaplotofrateversustimeorrateversuscumulativeproduction(asshownin
figureabove).ThemostcommonlyusedtrendingequationsarethosefirstdocumentedbyJ.J.Arps(1945).Thefollowing
figuredemonstratesamatchtrendandextrapolationtotheEUR.
Figure2:Rateversuscumulativegasproduction
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HistoricalBackground
J.J.ArpswasanAmericangeologistwhopublishedamathematicalrelationshipfortherateatwhichoilproductionfroma
singlewelldeclinesovertime(1945).Hispapermadeseveralreferencestoexistingmethodsandtheoryaboutdecline
analysis.ReferencesincludedArnoldandAnderson(1908),W.W.Cutler(1924),H.N.Marsh(1928),andR.E.Allen
(1931).
ManycontemporarypublishedpapershavetriedtoinvestigateormodifytheArpsdeclinebasedontheoretical
derivations.However,after70years,theoriginalmethodisstillwidelyinuse.
PracticalDeclineAnalysisKeyPoints
Allproductioncanbecharacterizedashavinganinitialtransientflowperiodfollowedbyaboundarydominatedflow
period.Duringthetransientperiod,thereservoirpressureattheflowboundaryremainsconstantattheinitialreservoir
pressureandtheflowboundarymovesoutwardfromthewellthroughthereservoir.Thisportionofawellsflowis
characterizedbyveryhighdeclinerates.Whentheflowboundaryreachesanactualreservoirboundary,ormeetswitha
flowboundaryofanotherwell,thereservoirpressurebeginstodeclineandthewellenterstheboundarydominatedflow
period.Itisinthisperiodthattraditionaldeclinemethods(i.e.Arps)canbeused.
Thetransientflowperiodcanlastfortimeperiodsfromseveralminutestoseveralyears,dependinguponpermeability
andthearealextentofthereservoir.Formostconventionalproduction,thetransientflowperiodendsafterafew
days.Tighterreservoirsthathavepermeabilityinthe0.5to1.0mDrangecanhavetransientperiodsthatlastseveral
months.Reservoirsthathaveevenlowerpermeabilitiesthatrequireextensivefracturenetworkscanhavetransient
periodsthatcouldlastforseveralyears.
Onceawellhasachievedboundarydominatedflow,anotherimportantconsiderationisthesandfaceflowingpressure.For
theperiodofproductionincludedinthedeclineanalysis,thesandfaceflowingpressuremustberelativelyconstantbefore
areliablesetofdeclineparameterscanbeextracted.Factorsthataffectsandfaceflowingpressureareratecontrolled
wells,changingwellheadbackpressure,changingwellboreconfigurations,andliquidloading.
DeclineTheory
Thetheoryofalldeclinecurveanalysisbeginswiththeconceptofthenominal(instantaneous)declinerate(a),whichis
definedasthefractionalchangeinrateperunittime:
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Anotherwayofrepresentingthedeclinerateisbasedonrate(q)andthedeclineexponentconstantb.
Whenproductionisplottedasflowratevs.time,thenominaldeclinerateisequaltotheslopeatapointintimedivided
bytherateatthatpoint.
Figure3
Thebehaviouroftheproductiondatacanbecharacterizedbasedonthewayinwhichthenominaldeclineratevarieswith
rate,basedonthevalueofthedeclineexponentconstantb.
Exponentialb=0
Hyperbolicbisavalueotherthan0or1
Harmonicb=1
Exponential
Fortheexponentialcase,b=zero.Thedeclineratecanbeshownas:
Wherekisaconstantequaltoa/qbatinitialconditions:
Asthedeclinerateremainsconstant,theintegrationoftheequationfordeclinerateresultsin:
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Therefore,aplotofflowratevs.time,withratesettoalogarithmicaxis,willresultinastraightline.
Thecumulativeproductionisdefinedas:
Therefore,aplotofflowratevs.cumulativeproductionwillresultinastraightline.
Hyperbolic
Forthehyperboliccase,bisequaltoanynumberbetweenzeroandone.Thedeclineratecanbeshownas:
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Wherekisaconstantequaltoa/qbatinitialconditions:
Asthedeclinerateisnotconstant,thesubstitutionandintegrationoftheequationfordeclinerateresultsin:
Substituting
Thecumulativeproductionisdefinedas:
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Substituting
Itisnotedthatneitheraplotofflowratevs.timeorflowratevs.cumulativeproductionwillresultinalinearrelation
(regardlessofwhetherrateissettoaCartesianorlogarithmicaxis).
Harmonic
Theharmoniccaseisaspecialcaseoftheabovehyperboliccase,wherebisequaltoone.Thedeclineratecanbe
shownas:
Wherekisaconstantequaltoa/qbatinitialconditions:
Asthedeclinerateisnotconstant,thesubstitutionandintegrationoftheequationfordeclinerateresultsin:
Substituting
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Thecumulativeproductionisdefinedas:
Substituting
Itisnotedthataplotofflowratevs.timewillnotresultinalinearrelation(regardlessofwhetherrateissettoa
Cartesianorlogarithmicaxis).Aplotofflowratevs.cumulativeproduction,withratesettoalogarithmicaxis,willresult
inastraightline.
ExponentialDeclineRate:Nominalvs.Effective
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Whenproductionfollowsanexponentialdecline,therearetwodifferentwaysofdefiningthedeclinerate:Nominaland
Effective.
Thefirstisthenominaldeclinerate,representedbythesymbol"a".Thenominaldeclinerateisdefinedas:
Thenominaldeclinerateisusedtocalculatetheratedeclineataspecifictime.Foragiventime,theequationforrate
usingnominaldeclineis:
Thesecondistheeffectivedeclinerate,representedbythesymbol"d".Theeffectivedeclinerate,foraparticulartime
period(typicallyoneyear),isdefinedas:
Theeffectivedeclinerateisusedtocalculatetheratedeclineforparticulartimeperiods.Foronetimestep,theequation
forrateusingeffectivedeclineis:
Notethatthetimeintervalisincludedintheequationforrateusingeffectivedecline,butisexplicitlystatedinthe
equationforrateusingnominaldecline.
Althoughtheequationsfornominalandeffectivedeclineratesaredifferentfromoneanother,thereisarelationshipthat
willgivethesameanswerforq2providedthetimeintervalsbetweenq1andq2arethesame.Therelationshipbetween
thetwoisgivenby:
Note:Theaboveequationisonlyvalidfortheexponentialequations.
Thedifferencebetweenthetwodeclineratesisillustratedbelow.Ineffect,thenominaldeclinerateisrelatedtothe
instantaneousslopeoftheline,whereastheeffectivedeclineratederivesfromthechordsegmentapproximatingthat
slope.Also,theratebywhichtheslopeisdividedisdifferentinstantaneousrate(q)isusedinthecaseofnominal
decline,whereastheprecedingrate(q1)isusedinthecaseofeffectivedecline.
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Figure4:ComparisonofNominalDeclineandEffectiveDecline
Theeffectivedeclineratetypicallyariseswhendealingwithflowratedataintabularratherthangraphicalformat.The
differencebetweenthenominalandeffectivedeclineratesisverysmallwhenthenominaldeclinerateissmall,butas
thenominaldeclinerategetslargerthedifferencebetweenthetwoincreases.Itisthereforeimportanttousethesevalues
correctly.
ModifiedHyperbolicDecline
Extrapolationofhyperbolicdeclinesoverlongperiodsoftimefrequentlyresultsinunrealisticallyhighreserves.Toavoid
thisproblem,ithasbeensuggestedthatatsomepointintimethehyperbolicdeclinebeconvertedintoanexponential
decline(Robertson).Thus,assumethatforaparticularexample,thedeclineratestartsat30%anddecreasesthrough
timeinahyperbolicmanner.Whenitreachesaspecifiedvalue,10%forexample,thehyperbolicdeclinecanbe
convertedtoanexponentialdecline,andtheforecastcontinuedusingtheexponentialdeclinerateof10%.
LimitedDeclineRate
Thelimiteddeclineratebeginsasahyperbolicdeclinecurveandtransitionsintoanexponentialdeclinecurveata
specifiedlimitingeffectivedeclinerate,dlim.Thelimitingeffectivedeclinerateisconvertedtoalimitingnominaldecline
rate,alim,andthefollowingratetimeequationsareappliedintheanalysis:
where:
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Thelimiteddeclineratecanalsobeexpressedasratecumulativeproductionusingthefollowingequations.
Forb>1:
Forb=1:
Valuesofb>1
Avalueofb=0correspondstoexponentialdecline,valuesofb>0and<1correspondtohyperbolicdecline,andavalue
ofb=1correspondstoharmonicdecline.Valuesofb>1arenotconsistentwithdeclinecurvetheory,buttheyare
sometimesencountered,andtheirmeaningisexplainedbelow.
Declinecurveanalysisisbasedonempiricalobservationsofproductionratedecline,andnotontheoreticalderivations.
Attemptstoexplaintheobservedbehaviourusingthetheoryofflowinporousmedialeadtothefactthattheseempirically
observeddeclinesarerelatedtoboundarydominatedflow.Whenawellisplacedonproduction,therewillbetransient
flowinitially.Eventually,allofthereservoirboundarieswillbefelt,anditisonlyafterthistimethatdeclinecurveanalysis
becomesapplicable.Duringboundarydominatedflow,thevalueof"b"liesintherangeof0to1,dependingonthe
reservoirboundaryconditionsandtherecoverymechanism.
Occasionally,declinecurveswithvaluesofb>1areencountered.Belowaresomereasonsthathavebeenpresentedto
explainthis:
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Theinterpretationiswrong,andanothervalueofb<1willfitthedata.
Thedataisstillintransientflowandhasnotreachedboundarydominatedflow.
GentryandMcCray(1978),usingnumericalsimulationshowedthatreservoirlayeringcancause
valuesofb>1.
Bailey(1982)showedthatsomefracturedgaswellsexhibitvaluesofb>1,sometimesashighas
3.5.
ArpsProductionDeclineEquationSummary
Type ExponentialDecline HyperbolicDecline HarmonicDecline
Declineisconstant Declineisproportionaltoafractionalpower(b)ofthe Declineisproportionalto
b=0 productionrate productionrate
0<b<1 b=1
RateTime
Rate
Cumulative
EUR
Copyright2014IHSInc.
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