Investment Research — General Market Conditions

09 August 2010

Commodities Daily
Commodities news
Today’s key points
 Overview: Commodities are little changed this morning after some selling off on
Friday after the US employment report surprised on the downside. Notably, wheat  No major scheduled events today

prices retreated somewhat on Friday from a 23-month high. Payrolls also sent equities
lower, but the market staged a recovery in the late hours. In addition, bond yields
were sharply lower. All eyes on the Fed meeting tomorrow.

 Grains: Amid all the fuss about wheat, we should not forget barley, the price of
which has doubled in six weeks. In particular, it is worth noting that European barley Commodities overview
is trading approximately at par with milling wheat, which is a rather unusual situation. Contract Last price %, d/d
Wheat prices did nevertheless decline markedly on Friday as market speculation that WTI, NYMEX 1. pos 81.3 -0.9
higher prices will boost plantings in the coming season led to some selling. On the Brent, ICE 1. pos 80.7 -1.1
whole, non-commercial positioning in wheat rose further in the week to last Heating Oil, NYMEX 1. pos 216.2 -1.1
Wednesday according to CFTC data. It is noteworthy however that both corn/maize Gasoline, NYMEX 1. pos 212.4 -1.9
and soybeans have followed wheat up only to a rather limited degree in recent weeks.
Aluminium, LME 3M 2209 0.4
If focus turns to possible substitution within the grains market, we cannot rule out that
Copper, LME 3M 7450 0.7
prices of these grains could have further to go.
Lead, LME 3M 2211 1.2
 Cross commodities: This week, market focus will probably centre on risk markets Nickel, LME 3M 22312 2.0
digesting the disappointing payroll report. However, with three oil-market reports due Zinc, LME 3M 2157 2.9
this week – most importantly the one from the IEA on Wednesday – supply and Steel, LME 3M 500 -0.6
demand will probably also receive some attention in energy markets. Particularly for Hot Rol Coil, NYMEX 1. pos 560 0.0
base metals, the Chinese trade data due for release early Tuesday could also be of
Gold, spot 1208 1.1
interest in judging whether China’s demand for raw materials is waning in light of
Silver, spot 19 1.0
recent focus on a likely bubble in the property sector.
Wheat, CBOT 1. pos 690.5 -12.1
Speculators increased long positions in wheat last week
Corn, CBOT 1. pos 404.3 0.2
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

Commodities Research:

Chief Analyst
Arne Lohmann Rasmussen
+45 4521 8532
arr@danskebank.dk

Senior Analyst
Christin Tuxen
+45 45137867
tux@danskebank.dk

Commodities Sales:

Senior Dealer
Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Martin Vorgod
+45 4514 3286
mavo@danskebank.dk

Vice President
Fredrik Åberg
+45 4514 3285
fredrik.aberg@danskebank.dk

Bloomberg: DRFX <GO>

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Commodities Daily

Commodity-price movements

09.08.2010 Yesterday Month ago Year ago This year

Last price %, today Close %, d/d Price %, m/m Price %, y/y %, YTD
Energy (1. pos):
NYMEX WTI ($/bbl) 81.3 0.7 80.7 -1.6 76.1 6.8 70.9 14.6 2.4
ICE Brent ($/bbl) 80.7 0.7 80.2 -1.8 75.4 7.0 73.6 9.7 3.6
NYMEX Heating Oil ($/gallon) 216.2 0.7 214.7 -1.8 202.6 6.7 191.2 13.1 2.0
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/gallon) 212.4 0.5 211.3 -2.4 207.0 2.6 200.8 5.8 3.5
ICE Gasoil ($/ton) 678.5 0.0 678.8 -1.3 644.3 5.3 607.5 11.7 6.8
ICE NWE Jet Fuel, CIF ($/ton) 743.3 0.4 740.2 -1.4 701.3 6.0 652.8 13.9 6.2
TTF NL Natural Gas (€/mwh) 18.7 -1.3 18.9 -1.6 21.3 -12.4 9.6 94.7 43.5
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 4.5 0.2 4.5 -2.8 4.4 1.6 3.7 21.8 -19.7
Nordpool electricity (€/mwh) - 0.9 44.4 0.0 46.6 -4.0 - - -
Fuel oil, 1%, FOB NWE ($/ton) 478.0 -0.8 482.0 - 446.5 3.8 301.3 53.8 81.3
Fuel oil, 3.5%, FOB ARA ($/ton) 450.5 -0.4 452.5 - 433.0 3.7 227.0 97.8 98.2
API2 steam coal, CIF ARA ($/ton) 95.2 0.0 95.2 -0.2 94.2 1.1 73.0 30.4 14.4
ICE ECX Carbon Emission (€/tn) 14.2 0.1 14.2 -0.8 14.7 -2.8 14.7 -3.3 13.6

Base metals:
Aluminium, LME 3M, $/ton 2209 0.8 2191 -0.4 2004 10.2 2020 9.4 -0.9
Copper, LME 3M, $/ton 7450 1.1 7370 -0.4 6760 10.2 6150 21.1 1.0
Lead, LME 3M, $/ton 2211 2.3 2161 -1.1 1845 19.8 1900 16.4 -9.1
Nickel, LME 3M, $/ton 22312 1.0 22100 1.0 19500 14.4 19625 13.7 20.4
Zinc, LME 3M, $/ton 2157 1.3 2129 1.5 1904 13.3 1900 13.5 -15.7
Steel, LME 3M, $/ton 500 -0.6 503 0.0 433 15.6 410 22.0 22.1
Hot Rolled Coil, NYMEX, 1. pos, $/ton 560 0.0 560 0.0 610 -8.2 500 12.0 1.8

Precious Metals (spot, $/t oz.):

Gold 1208 0.3 1205 0.8 1211.0 -0.2 956.9 26.3 10.0
Silver 19 0.4 18 0.6 18.1 2.4 14.7 26.3 9.4

Agriculturals (1. pos):

CBOT Wheat ($/bu.) 690.5 -4.9 725.8 -7.6 523.5 31.9 489.5 41.1 27.5
Matif Mill Wheat (€/ton) 210.5 -6.2 224.5 6.9 148.8 41.5 122.0 72.5 60.4
CBOT Corn ($/bu.) 404.3 -0.2 405.0 0.4 375.3 7.7 322.0 25.5 -2.5
CBOT Soybeans ($/bu.) 1065.8 0.6 1059.0 0.4 1025.5 3.9 1184.5 -10.0 2.5
NYBOT Sugar ($/lb.) 18.2 -0.3 18.3 -3.1 16.7 9.3 19.8 -7.9 -32.3

Commodity indices (total return):

DJ-UBS 272 -1.1 275 -0.1 255 6.6 261 4.0 -2.7
S&P GSCI 4333 0.2 4324 -1.6 4065 6.6 4363 -0.7 -4.4
Reuters CRB 275 -1.1 278 -0.5 260 5.4 264 4.0 -3.0
Rogers commodity index 3248 -1.4 3294 0.1 2901 11.9 3056 6.3 -0.8
DJ-AIG 135 -1.1 137 -0.1 127 6.6 130 3.9 -2.8
S&P GSCI Energy 948 -1.7 964 -0.7 862 9.9 1017 -6.9 -6.7
S&P GSCI Industrial Metals 1655 -0.1 1657 -1.3 1474 12.3 1472 12.4 -3.1
S&P GSCI Precious Metals 1556 0.5 1547 0.3 1543 0.8 1251 24.3 9.2
S&P GSCI Agriculture 609 -2.7 626 2.6 512 18.9 564 8.1 -1.0
Source: Bloomberg, Danske Markets.

Energy
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Commodities Daily

Oil prices US crude oil stocks, EIA

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

WTI (NYMEX) forward curve Brent (ICE) curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Jet fuel and gasoil crack spreads Gasoline crack spread, RBOB, NYMEX 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Heating oil crack spread, NYMEX 1. pos Fuel oil, NWE, crack spreads

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

CO2 emission rights, ICE 1. pos Electricity, Nordpool quarterly, 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Natural gas, 1. pos API2 coal, 1. pos

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Metals
Aluminium Aluminium forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Copper Copper forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Nickel Nickel forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Zinc Zinc forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Copper SHFE-LME spread Steel

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Gold and silver Gold forward curve

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Grains
Wheat Milling wheat forward curve, NYSE LIffe

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Corn, CBOT 1. pos Corn forward curve, CBOT

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

Soybeans, CBOT 1. pos Soybeans forward curve, CBOT

Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets. Source: EcoWin, Danske Markets.

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Disclosure
This research report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of
Danske Bank. Danske Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The authors of
this research report are Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst and Christin Tuxen, Senior Analyst.

Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high
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Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report

Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology
as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be
obtained from the authors upon request.

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Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis
of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text.

Expected updates
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First date of publication

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using the closing price from the day before publication.

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