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Model formulation
A great variety of numerical models have been proposed for
marine pollution studies and several of them have been
applied successfully to at least 10 of Britains major
estuaries.5 The Water Research Centree has developed
quantized mixing models as well as time-averaged and time-
dependent diffusion models but, for the sake of simplicity
of formulation and ease of operation, a steady-state,
finite-element model based on the convection-diffusion
equation :
0307-904X/81/030137-06/$02.00
0 IPC Business Press Appl. Math. Modelling, 1981, Vol. 5, June 1981 137
Clyde Estuary model: J. C. Cur-ran
Equation (1) is easily solved once it is reduced to a tidal- approximately 5% of its saturation value, the chemical
averaged one-dimensional form, as described by Gilligan.3 processes described by equations (4)-(7) change radically;
By analogy with Ficks diffusion law, a dispersion coeffi- the B.O.D. removal, expressed by the coefficient kL, can no
cient is defined as : longer be sustained by D.O. at the same time as nitrification
is taking place. If, after nitrification is terminated through
E = QsfA d (2) the coefficient kN being reduced to zero, D.O. continues to
dx fall below 5% then part of the B.O.D. must be satisfied by
the denitrification process, in which NO, is reduced to NHa.
and equation (1) becomes:
The precise nature of this transition is not clear; the Depart-
ment of Scientific and Industrial Research8 reviews a
i Qc-EAS =m-kAc (3)
) number of investigations in which nitrification and denitrifi-
cation have been found respectively to decrease and to
This basic form of the equation may then be appropria- increase in a complementary and gradual way as D.O. drops
tely applied to the various nonconservative estuary para- from around 2 mg 1-l to zero. Evidence has also been found
meters of interest; namely five-day biochemical oxygen of hysteresis in the transition as D.O. levels are cycled.
demand (B.O.D.), ammoniacal nitrogen (NH,-N), nitrogen The present model employs an initial step-wise reduction
in nitrate form (NO,-N) and dissolved oxygen (D.O.) for in nitrification constant wherever D.O. falls below 0.5 mg 1-r
which, respectively, the resulting equations are: (approximately 5% D.O. saturation under most estuarine
conditions). This reduction is performed in equal steps
; (QL) = & @A g) + mL - k&C (4) until D.O. is found to be at or above 0.5 mg 1-l at all nodes
in the estuary; if this is not achieved, even with zero nitrifi-
cation, then the B.O.D. value at each node is iteratively and
-$QMj=;EA~)+,n+,AM convergently partitioned between the two oxygen sources
of D.O. and NOa in such a way as to maintain D.O. levels
close to 0.5 mg 1-l. The procedure is illustrated in the flow
i(Qw=k .EAdz +k,+M+mN diagram of Figure 2.
( )
-4.57kNAM + mD Table 2 lists the values of various model constants, the only
(7)
unusual feature being a relatively small value of kN for
These equations summarize the estuarine chemical which there is supporting evidence9 that nitrification
processes which essentially require that B.O.D. must be proceeds only slowly in the Clyde Estuary. Additional data
satisfied at all times; normally the oxygen source is D.O. requirements comprise flow, temperature, B.O.D., D.O.,
which is simultaneously absorbed in the nitrification NH,-N, and NO3-N concentrations for the major estuarine
process where NH, is oxidized to NOa. Dissolved oxygen is influents of the Rivers Clyde, Kelvin, White Cart, Black Cart
continuously replenished by the surface re-aeration process. Gryfe and Leven and for the sewage treatment works
Equations (2), (4), (5) (6) and (7) are solved consecu- (S.T.W.) at Shieldhall, Renfrew, Paisley, Dalmuir, Dumbar-
tively using linear shape functions between element nodes ton and Ardoch/Havock. The water quality parameters
as the Galerkin weighting functions. The principal assump- must also be specified for the downstream boundary condi-
tions and approximations of such a model are summarized tion of the model at approximately 37 km seawards of the
in Table 1. tidal weir, as indicated on Figure I. Finally, with a know-
ledge of the river flows, regression equationslO may be used
Problem of low D.O. to determine the expected depth-averaged salinities at the
According to Maskell and Odd,7 when D.O. drops to 12 routine survey stations between 37 km and the tidal
weir. These equations have been deduced from 36 surveys
performed at low-water over the period 197 l-74. These
Table 1 Assumptions inherent in the Clyde model
salinity values are subsequently smoothed and then Lagran-
(1) Input salinity data from regression equatrons are smoothed gian interpolation is applied to calculate the expected
and then interpolated. salinities at the model nodes; equation (2) then provides the
(2) Resultant dispersion coefficients, E, are assumed identical expected dispersion coefficients. This procedure inevitably
for all solutes. implies that the model will forecast only low-tide conditions.
(3) Cross-sectional areas, A, are approximated by a cubic curve.
Hence, docks etc. are smoothed out.
The model is run routinely with 29 nodes between the
(4)
(5) Similarly, tidal excursions are approximated by a cubic tidal weir and 37 km, of which seven nodes are distributed
CUWfZ. over the first 1.2 km where ambient conditions change most
(6) Sulphate reduction and nitrate reduction in sediments are rapidly. The model, which is written in Data General
both ignored.
extended Algol, has an operational size of 44 kbytes and
(7) Re-aeration is described by k, = fz, where f is constant.
(8) Aeration depths, z, are specified individually at each node.
can be run on the 46 kbyte background of a dual-ground
(9) First-order reaction rates for de-oxygenation, nitrification and Data General Nova 3 computer where it consumes a maxi-
re-aeration are assumed. mum of 6.5 min CPU time when performing 30 iterations.
(10) Temperature dependence of reaction rates requires assump- The hard-copy outout tabulates the water quality para-
tion of a linear relationship between temperature and
meters of the various influents, lists the expected values
salinity.
(II) 15% of B.O.D. loading to estuary is assumed non-active die of ammoniacal nitrogen and nitrate-nitrogen concentrations
to deposition and dredging. in the estuary assuming an uninterrupted nitrification
process and then tabulates, against position in the estuary,
Reduce
nltrlflcatlon
rate by l/15 lO(
wherever
aDProDrlate
Not EC
-Q
No Has
nltrlflcatlon
rate been 1
reduced i 6C
0
0
4c Denitrlflcatlon
2c
Y2
i
CI
the final calculated values of salinity (o/oo), B.O.D. (mg l-l),
I
D.O. (mg l-l), NHa-N (mg l-), NOa-N (mg 1-l) and D.O. (% 1 c
saturation). If appropriate, the output additionally indicates
ct
the stretch of the estuary over which the nitrification rate is
inhibited and, if necessary, the amount of B.O.D. (mg 1-l) >
which is satisfied by denitrification. x
Test of model
:
-
2
I\
1
The retention time of the Clyde Estuary may be as long
E
as 25 days and so an acceptable test of a steady-state model
Z-
demands a long period of fairly constant input flows and 1 1
percentage exceedences for the Rivers Clyde, Kelvin, White Figure 3 Comparison between concentrations of (a), D.O.; (b),
Cart, Black Cart, Gryfe and Leven attained values of 97%, NH,-N and (c) NO,-N measured on 16 May 1980 (denoted by x)
87%, 93%, >97%, >93% and 96% respectively. and those predicted by model
the year as they are presently for only 40% of the year. If
80- the abstraction was made after Shieldhall S.T.W. had been
improved, then the D.O. reduction would be about 2%
saturation and approximately one-fifth of the advantage
gained by the reconstruction work would be lost, equivalent
to around 211 million.
For these and many other environmental reasons,
preference2>21 was given ultimately to a similar abstraction
scheme based on the River Tay, where there was judged to
be a negligible effect19 on fisheries of an abstraction at the
tidal limit of 10.5 cumsecs.
Conclusion
I I I I The validation tests show that a relatively simple pollution
10 20 30
km from WV model may, under certain circumstances, provide fairly
Figure 7 Clyde abstraction scheme. Curve A: present loading accurate predictions of estuarine water quality. The case
conditions with annual 50% ext. flows. Curve B: present conditions studies indicate the way in which the model may be applied
with Clyde abstraction. Curve C: present conditions with Shieldhall to current problems; although not a deus ex machina, the
improved. Curve D: present conditions with Shieldhall improved
model is a valuable guide in arriving at what must ultimately
and Clyde abstraction. Denotes values for present conditions with
annual 60% ext. flows
remain a subjective decision on the short- and long-term
implications of various pollution management schemes in
relation to economic or social constraints.
D.O. for a 1000 min exposure of salmon smolts acclimated In future, the accuracy of the model may be enhanced
in high D.O. freshwater. The difference between these by introducing more realisticI second-order rate constants,
values lies within the error of the models predictions and a variable re-aeration coefficient, and sediment reduction of
it appears likely, therefore, that in dry seasons there may be nitrate.
considerable smolt mortality.
After the commissioning of secondary treatment at
Shieldhall, the D.O. levels should attain 43% saturation at Acknowledgements
the Leven mouth and 23% at the Cart mouth thereby allow- This paper is published by the permission of Mr D.
ing salmon to recolonize the Cart river system in favourable Hammerton, Director of the Clyde River Purification Board.
years. The increase in Dalmuir effluent will produce no Sewage works effluent data were provided by the Depart-
critical effect at the Leven mouth although the Cart may ment of the Regional Chemist, Public Analyst and Agri-
remain impassable to migrating smelts. cultural Analyst with the permission of the Director of
It is apparent that, over most of the length of the Sewerage, Strathclyde Regional Council. The advice and
estuary, around one half of the benefit resulting from the critical appraisal of Dr A. J. Newton and the programming
upgrading of Shieldhall S.T.W. would be lost by the imple- help of Mr T. Poodle and Mr J. M. Rooney are gratefully
mentation of the Kelvin scheme. For sewage works of a acknowledged.
size comparable to the new Shieldhall works, an approxi-
mately linear relationship l6 has been shown to exist
between the design flows and the total costs; since the References
latest estimate17 of the cost of the construction work at Mackay, D. W. et al. Proc. Roy. Sot. Edin. 1978, 76B, 135
Shieldhall is &54 million then, arguably, the price to be paid Gouge, R. L. et al. J. kzst. Wat. tng. Sci. 1977, 31, 329
for the estuarine deterioration may be put at &27 million. Gilligan, R. M. Wat. Poll. Res. Lab. Reprint No. 685, 1972
C.R.P.B. Tech. Rep. No. 49, 1978
Hinchcliffc, P. R. Central Water Planning Unit, 1979
Clyde freshwater abstraction Water Research Centre, Notes on Water Pollution No. 69, 1975
In order to avoid predicted water shortages within the Maskell, J. M. and Odd, N. V. M. Hydra&. Rex Stat. Rep. No.
next decade, the Central Scotland Water Development IT171, 1977
8 D.S.I.R. Wat. Poll. Rex Tech. Paper No. 11, 1964
Board proposedls~9 in 1977 a number of schemes for 9 Mackay, D. W. and Leatherland, T. M. In Estuarinc chemistry
major surface water resource development designed to meet (ed. Burton, J. D. and Liss, P. S.), Academic Press, London,
the requirements of the next 20 to 30 years. 1976
One such scheme, priced at around &IO0 million, 10 C.R.P.B. Tech. Rep. No. 48, 1978
11 Mackay, D. W. and Gilligan, J. Wat. RES. 1972, 6, 183
proposed the abstraction of 680 Ml/day (7.9 cumecs) fresh-
12 Barrett, M. J. et al. Prog. Wat. Tech. 1978,10,409
water from the River Clyde upstream of Lanark. Although 13 Benoit, R. J. In Water and water pollution, Vol. 1 (ed.
abstraction would have been permitted only at river flows Ciaccio, L. L.). Dekker Inc., 1971
greater than 85% exceedence, there would still have 14 Royal Commission on Sewage Disposal Eighth Report,
remained a considerable and wide-ranging environmental H.M.S.O., 1912
15 Alabaster, J. S. J. Fish Biol. 1979, 15, 1
impact on both the river and the estuary not only in terms
16 Clough, C. F. G. and Cannon, D. E. Report on Coastal Discharges
of water quality but also of estuarine circulation and Conference, Inst. Civ. Eng., 1980, p. 109.
sedimentation.5 17 Greer, W. T. Conference Paper No. 10, I. W.P.C. Annual Conf:,
Figure 7 indicates the resulting adverse effect on ambient 1980
conditions for annual 50% exceedence flows. Under present 18 C.R.P.B. Annual Report for year ending 31 December 1977
19 Central Scotland Water Development Board, Water for Central
loading conditions, the abstraction would lower D.O. values Scotland, Report by R. H. Cuthbertson & Partners, 1977
by about 5% saturation over a 10 km stretch of the estuary 20 Scottish Development Department, Water in Scotland - A
and water quality conditions would be as bad for 50% of Review, H.M.S.O., 1980
21 Central Scotland Water Development Board, Water for Central L concentration of B.O.D.
Scotland - The Way Ahead, Report by R. H. Cuthbertson & M concentration of ammoniacal nitrogen
Partners, 1979
D concentration of D.O.
DS saturation concentration of D.O.
Nomenclature N concentration of nitrate nitrogen
time kL> kiv first-order reaction rates for depletion of B.O.D.
X distance seawards along estuary from tidal weir and ammonia
P density k, first-order reaction rate for re-aeration of estuarine
c concentration of a solute water
u,vu,w components of velocity T temperature (C)
m addition of solute per unit length of estuary Z aeration depth = cross-section of estuary/width of
salinity estuary
1 reaction rate describing the depletion of a solute mL, rn,+, addition of B.O.D., NHa-N, D.O. and NOa-N per
E dispersion coefficient, defined by equation (2) unit length of
Q upstream total freshwater discharge mDT mN estuary where each is spread over appropriate
A cross-section area of estuary, a function of x tidal excursion