THE ANNUAL AVERAGE FLOW ON THE RIVER JIU:

HYDROLOGICAL EGALES OR A TENDENCY OF OBVIOUS CHANGE?

CONSTANTIN SAVIN1

Key words: annual flow, annual flow module coefficient, annual flow variation coefficient, multi-
annual average flow, sliding period of time, specific average annual flow and area connection.

1. A short history of the subject in question

Concerns about researching the average flow of water of the main rivers date back in
time for a period of over 60 years 4,6, their main objective being the enhancement of the
energetic value of the hydraulic potential. And not only that. Further more, some of the
founders of both theoretical and applied hydrology tried, and up to of some point theyve
succeeded, to obtain, on various ways, multi-annual average flow coefficients. They used
graphic connections between on the dot - isolated values of the average flow, with various
parameters of the basin (average altitude of the basin H (m)), the degree of afforestation, the
surface of the hydrographic basin F (km2), the average estimated incline of the basin Ib.
They also took into consideration some climatic parameters highly representative for the
formation and the evolution of the flow (the normal of the annual medium temperatures,
the normal annual layer of the rainfall, the highs of the annual medium temperature, etc.).
Thus were taken the first steps towards a methodology of studying and evaluating the
multi-annual average flow.
These graphic connections led us to the solution of numerous practical problems, and
also laid out the foundations of hydrology, in terms of its theory, as a developing scientific
branch.
Of an exceptional scientific importance was the discovery of the vertical area
repartition of the flow and also the intuition that the greatest part of the climatic and
hydrological parameters is subjected to it 6.
Later on, around 1949-1953, together with the development of the hydrometric base
on the rivers of the country, numerous new studies emerged, concerning the level of the
average flow over the entire Romanian territory, and also the first map containing the average
flows of the rivers in Romania being produced.
In preparing this work there were used the connections between the average flow and
the medium altitude of the basins. Afterwards this map has been improved 3.
Finally, a giant step in the knowing and the substantiating of the average flow was
taken together with the publication of the first hydrological monograph for all the rivers of
Romania 12, a fabulous piece of work, from a scientific and methodological point of view.
As far as the river Jiu and its basin are concerned, a modest contribution was brought
in by the author of this paper, who, for the second time after over 15 years, reevaluates in
detail the question of the annual average flow.
2. The Opportunity and Importance of Deepening the Knowledge of the Average
Flow
The average flow is unanimously considered the most common parameter of the water
resources from a given basin or territory.
Knowing its value is of a great importance in order to evaluate the hydro-energetic
potential, but it is also used in other lines of work that consume or use water (irrigation,
mining, thermoenergy, etc.).
Analyzing a short series of average annual values, one cannot obtain a full picture of
the multi-annual amplitude of the annual average flows and, thus, one can make sometimes
pretty serious mistakes, in evaluating the volumes available to the utilities.

1
University of Craiova
 Constantin Savin

Enhancing the importance of a long series of values (of at least 30-40 terms) does
bring a more obvious equilibrium to the variation field and, this way, a relative stability of
the annual module flow, within tighter limits.
In this case, the risk of making any mistake is smaller, and the hydrological
calculations more precise.
It may yet happen to appear, and persist, a certain tendency, extended over a long
period of time, having as probable cause the genetic factors of the flow.
It was quite a shock to discover a similar type of evolution in the case of river Jiu.
Its true that even the briefest overview points out that in the last 25-30 years, the
annual average flows of the river Jiu suffer a severe drop, drop that led to a quasi-permanent
recoil of the module flow value.
That is the reason why we considered not only welcomed, but also equally important,
the reevaluation of the variation of the annual average flow on this river and its economic
implications.
3. Changes of the average annual flow
Inside our paper published in 1990 7, the graph shown at page 141 (figure 63),
indicates a slight reduction tendency of the annual average flows after the peak from 1969.
We didnt believe that this tendency would persist for a lot of years after. It was no small
surprise when we found out that the reduction tendency of the annual flow still made its mark
in the last 25-30 years, at each and every station on the river Jiu, with no exception at all.
Our study led to the data included in table 1, data that confirms without a doubt that
this is a correct assessment.
3.1. The causes for the reduction of the annual flow
Even from the start we thought of a series of subjective causes.
a) Poor quality hydrometry, by that meaning:
- the lack of additional level observations during the time of high floods
(especially at their peak);
- the lack or poor functioning of the level recording apparatus (of the
limnographs);
b) Poor use of the interpretations (lack of the graphic weighted means);
c) Too big and uncertain extrapolations in the superior part of the limnimetric keys,
etc.;
d) Poor reconstitution of the flow, either because of the lack of knowledge in using
the utilities from upstream or, more likely, because of the lack of hydrometry (lack
of measuring apparatus at the utilities).
But all these assumptions are not confirmed, most of the hydrometrical stations being
well equipped in terms of apparatus, experienced attending personnel, and the personnel
doing the interpretations and the reconstitution of the real flows being selected on the basis of
their education, experience and professional uprightness.
In other words, the subjective causes, if they exist, they are playing a small part as far
as the quantum of the flow changes is concerned.
Therefore we directed our attention towards the natural causes that may have
interfered, especially the climatic changes:
- of the precipitations regime (the diminution of the annual quantities);
- of the air thermal regime (up to 10C rise of the medium annual temperature,
noticed in the Oltenia territory in the last 15-20 years) and as a result of a rise of
the evaporation phenomenon at the surface of water, soil and vegetation;
- the clearing and reduction of the forest area
All these seem to be the most dynamic climatic elements, having a drying effect over
the climate of Oltenia and on the entire basin scale.
In our opinion, other natural causes (as the petrographic or the tectonic nature) cannot
be taken into consideration, because they evolve on a geological time scale.

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 The annual average flow on the river Jiu: hydrological egales or a tendency of obvious change?

3.2. The evolution in time of the annual flow volume

The extent of the adjustment (reduction) in time of the annual flow and the dynamics
of these changes can be easily observed as a conclusion to the data presented in this paper.
Thus, in table 1 it is shown the evolution during sliding periods of time of the real and
specific values of the flow.
Data analysis points out that:
During 1950-1969, the annual values of the flow had a variation within tight limits:
under 400 l/s in the upper course;
under 1.7 m3/s in the medium course;
under 2.1 m3/s in the lower course
After the high floods during 1969-1972, it follows a period of time of continuous
reduction of the annual flow, within extremely large limits:
of 14-20% in the upper course;
of 12-25% in the medium course;
of 18-25% in the lower course
For a more clear-cut picture of this tendency of severe diminishing of the flow on the
entire course of river Jiu, were presenting in fig.1 the graphic connection q-H.

Fig.1 The q-H connection along the river Jiu during sliding periods of time (according to table1

241
 Constantin Savin

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 The annual average flow on the river Jiu: hydrological egales or a tendency of obvious change?

There are two conclusions that can be

easily drawn out:
The graphic connection is not one of a
kind, because the river Jiu passes across
the Meridional Carpathians. In this case,
after its entrance in the defile, the medium
altitude rises again and the connection
changes its aspect.
In lack of certain data, we preferred cutting off
the correlation for the entire width of the
Carpathians (25km).
It may be observed a certain slide from the
right towards left of the correlation lines
(VI-I) in reference to the correlation curve
(VII) for the period of time between 1950-
1997. This clearly reflects the diminishing
of the Qan (Qyear) and q values the 69-72
period till now.

Another way to graphically present the

evolution of the annual flow is the one in
fig.2, using module coefficients (k = Qan/Q0)
during the time between 1950-1997.
Correlating the annual flow values
(Qan), the graph seems pretty complex, and yet
points out a generalized tendency of the
annual flow to reduce, after 1969-1972 in the
medium and lower course, and after 1975 in
the upper course.
Finally the most suggestive graphic
presentation is the one shown in fig.3 which
represents the evolution of the medium values
during sliding periods of time, going down
from 48 years to 5 years.
It may be clearly observed that after
the period 1969-1972 it takes shape an
obvious tendency of severe reduction of the
flow values until the last 5 years, when the
high floods from 1991 stopped for a
moment the diminishing of the annual flow
values.
3.3 The reduction of the annual flow impact
on economy
It had and still has a great, powerful
impact, negatively influencing:
the subterranean feeding of the river
Fig. 2 The annual flow variation in module coefficients on
the river Jiu (poorer now);
the bank intakes, that got more and more reduced flows (the 8 intakes from the Craiova
sector);

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 Constantin Savin

the big water consumers (thermoelectric plants, coal preparation facilities and the oil
derricks) saw themselves forced to review the consumption justification in order for the
general activity of waters managing not to suffer;
finally, as a consequence of the flow reduction all the standards, concerning water
pollution and especially the dilution processes, must be revised;
in the given conditions, all the standards and the functioning limits of the accumulations
and derivations must be revised, in order to avoid critical situations

Fig.3 The evolution of the average annual flow during sliding periods of time along the river Jiu
between 1950-1997 (L/km, on the course not reported to scale)

Conclusions and suggestions:

in order to avoid critical situations we call for a similar analysis concerning each and
every one of the great rivers;
all the water management programs on the great basins must be revised;
the exploitation plans for the basin accumulations must also be revised;
considering possible consumption restrictions during draughty periods of time;
a better compensation of the river flows by derivations and accumulations
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 The annual average flow on the river Jiu: hydrological egales or a tendency of obvious change?

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