Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
SUMMARY REPORT
CALGARY
2013-2017
PETER MCCAFFREY & BEN WOODFINDEN
09 AUGUST 2017
ABOUT THE
MANNING FOUNDATION
2
The Manning Foundations vision is of a freer, stronger, better-governed
Canada.
3
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
4
PETER MCCAFFREY
Peter McCaffrey is the Director of Research at
the Manning Foundation, where he oversees the
development of research, education, ideas, and
public policy.
BEN WOODFINDEN
Ben Woodfinden is a Research and Data Intern at
the Manning Foundation, where he assists in data
collection, analysis, editing, and policy research.
5
CONTENTS
6
I. Executive Summary . . . . 8
II. Introduction . . . . . . 12
III. Methodology . . . . . . 14
IV. Time . . . . . . . . 16
V. Attendance
. . . . . . . 20
VI. Votes . . . . . . . . 24
VIII. Coalitions . . . . . . . 38
IX. Conclusion
. . . . . . . 46
X. Notes . . . . . . . 48
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I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
8
An essential part of the democratic process, and of government
accountability is the ability of the public to monitor and assess the
representation they receive.
The aim of the Council Tracker project is to take data coming from
Canadian council chambers and present it in a useful and more easily
understandable format.
The principal results of this report are summarized below for the
2013-2017 Calgary City Council term, beginning October 28, 2013 and
ending July 24, 2017:
Calgary City Council met 120 times for a total of about 1,127 hours
and 53 minutes: 861 hours and 8 minutes in public (76.3%), and 266
hours and 45 minutes in secret (23.7%).
9
For comparison, between 2014 and 2016, Hamilton met in camera 13
times, Toronto 18 times, and Ottawa only one time.
Council members Woolley and Carra very often vote the same way
(80% of divided votes), as do Councillors Chu and Magliocca (72%).
The data also appears to show two reasonably clear coalitions of five
councillors each.
10
THERE CAN BE NO
FAITH IN GOVERNMENT
IF OUR HIGHEST
OFFICES ARE EXCUSED
FROM SCRUTINY -
THEY SHOULD BE
SETTING THE EXAMPLE
OF TRANSPARENCY
- Edward Snowden
11
II. INTRODUCTION
12
The involvement of political parties at the Canadian provincial and
federal levels of government, and in some cities, makes it easier for the
public to know what general positions their elected representative is
likely to take.
More than just being an academic exercise, Council Tracker has resulted
in tangible improvements to how the City of Calgary does business, on
issues ranging from council workload, to open data, and transportation
planning.
This Calgary Summary Report takes the lessons from our previous
Calgary reports, and our expansion to new cities in Ontario, and applies
our new methodology to the entire set of voting records and minutes
for the 2013-2017 Council term.
13
III. METHODOLOGY
14
This report incorporates data from the official minutes of 120 Calgary
City Council meetings held between October 28, 2013 and July 24, 2017.
Council Tracker simply reports what has occurred and does not attempt
to judge the merits of those events.
Where there were clear and obvious innacuracies in the minutes, the
inaccuracies were fixed in our data, and reported to the City to allow
them to update their own records.
If the correct data was not immediately obvious, however, the record
was either excluded or left ambiguous.
With over 10,000 votes for each councillor, and even more data on
attendance records, time, and coalitions, we believe any minor errors
that remain in the official City of Calgary records do not affect the
findings of the results.
15
IV. TIME
16
Research has shown that the sheer volume of material produced at
every level of government can make it difficult for the general public to
participate in the democratic process, and for the media to hold elected
officials to account.
The initial findings on how Calgary City Council spends its time are
presented in this section.
THERE ARE NO
SECRETS THAT TIME
DOES NOT REVEAL
- Jean Racine
17
During 2013-2017, Calgary City Council met 120 times for a total of
about 1,127 hours and 53 minutes: 861 hours and 8 minutes in public
(76.3%), and 266 hours and 45 minutes in secret (23.7%). This is an
increase from 19% of time spent in secret during the previous term.
18
Calgary City Council met in camera at least 748 times during 2013-2017,
for an average of 21 minutes and 41 seconds each time.
Unknown, 19.92%
19
V. ATTENDANCE
20
Attendance is an important measure for judging the performance of
any elected assembly.
TITLE
100.0%
100.0%
99.2%
99.2%
98.4%
98.4%
98.4%
98.4%
97.5%
95.9%
94.2%
94.2%
93.4%
93.4%
91.7%
21
There were 58 absences observed over 120 meetings. 51.7% of meetings
had all councillors present - down from 75.6% in the previous term.
7
4
8
6
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
22
The records of the Calgary City Council only note whether a council
member was present or absent for a meeting, not the times they
arrived, left, or re-joined a council session.
Time spent out of the room is not recorded in the minutes and so
cannot be added to the total absence calculations.
Given this constraint, Figure 5 shows the total time missing from
council, by council member, as officially recorded in the minutes - real
world attendance is lower than depicted here.
82:50:00
77:26:00
77:11:00
65:25:00
45:41:00
42:16:00
38:13:00
36:32:00
30:57:00
28:37:00
9:14
8:21
4:21
0:00
0:00
23
VI. VOTES
24
This report considers 10,405 votes as found within the Calgary City
Council record for the 2013-2017 term.
The main outlier is Mayor Nenshi, but these low figures are not
surprising given the Mayor chairs most meetings and so would not be
expected to move or second many motions.
1131
1029
1145
755
746
348
759
854
692
824
420
600
1084
1048
1043
1038
687
1111
988
548
749
691
611
563
533
449
8
235
221
41
Mover Seconder
25
Figure 7 shows that there is also a very wide range in the likelihood of a
council member voting against any given motion.
Not only is there a wide range, but all these figures are very high
compared to other City Councils we have studied.
In Hamilton, for example, even the councillor most likely to vote against
a motion does so only about 2% of the time.
36.47%
26.67%
22.62%
20.29%
18.49%
17.29%
13.90%
12.60%
13.12%
12.45%
11.18%
9.77%
9.53%
9.36%
8.12%
26
Figure 8 shows that a few council members also appear to be more
likely to be a dissenting voice on Council - for example, by voting
against a proposal that passes with the support of the vast majority of
their peers.
1584
1222
1028
909
786
672
629
572
539
538
492
442
399
401
352
27
The vast majority of votes on council (97.2%) were carried, and very few
(2.8%) were lost.
Given the vast majority of votes were carried, and relatively little
time was spent on each item we can infer that, despite outwards
appearances, there are many topics that are uncontroversial, and a
majority of councillors vote together regularly.
28
To get a better understanding of how Council operates on more
contentious items, we can eliminate from our analysis votes that passed
easily and assess only those items that showed some disagreement.
This suggests that while many votes are uncontroversial, amongst the
remaining topics there exists significant disagreement, though the
minority doesnt often get its way.
Figure 10 shows that amongst these 3,330 divided votes, 8.8% were
defeated, 90.9% were carried.
Carried, 90.90%
29
Figure 11 breaks down the margin of how close divided votes were
decided.
910
863
486
293
260
263
180
183
174
169
162
161
148
142
137
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
30
Using this data, Figure 12 uses a controversy measure of each
councillor that represents their likelihood to be attached to a divided
vote, either as a mover or seconder.
For example, if there was a divided vote, Councillor Pincott was most
likely (13.5% of the time) to be the mover or seconder of the motion.
It may also reect only support for debating an issue, rather than
support for the motion itself.
400
496
281
262
259
178
194
81
247
495
251
187
236
110
335
136
312
297
292
291
259
249
175
text5
149
141
129
106
Add20
80
Mover Seconder
31
VII. WHO VOTES WITH WHOM
32
While many voters claim to be opposed to political party organizations
at the municipal level, in reality, organic coalitions of councillors are
quite common across Canada.
With the data from Table 1, we can use multidimensional scaling (MDS)
to build a visual representation of the distances among a set of objects
(in this case, council members), and plot them on a map, as shown in
Figure 13.
MDS plots each council member on the map such that those council
members that agree often are placed near each other, and those
council members that rarely agree, are placed far away from each other
on the map.
Sutherland
Stevenson
Magliocca
Pootmans
Demong
Woolley
Keating
Chabot
Pincott
Nenshi
Farrell
Jones
Carra
Chu
Nenshi 100 80 50 69 59 62 82 65 68 59 78 75 36 66 78
Carra 80 100 51 70 57 63 78 68 71 58 75 77 39 68 80
Chu 50 51 100 57 65 63 46 65 60 72 48 64 57 68 54
Colley-Urquhart 69 70 57 100 63 66 66 69 70 64 66 76 44 71 74
Chabot 59 57 65 63 100 69 55 68 65 69 57 67 48 71 61
Demong 62 63 63 66 69 100 57 71 71 67 59 71 47 73 67
Farrell 82 78 46 66 55 57 100 63 65 54 79 73 32 62 78
Jones 65 68 65 69 68 71 63 100 72 70 65 77 55 76 72
Keating 68 71 60 70 65 71 65 72 100 67 66 77 49 73 75
Magliocca 59 58 72 64 69 67 54 70 67 100 57 69 57 73 63
Pincott 78 75 48 66 57 59 79 65 66 57 100 73 36 64 80
Pootmans 75 77 64 76 67 71 73 77 77 69 73 100 50 78 80
Stevenson 36 39 57 44 48 47 32 55 49 57 36 50 100 53 43
Sutherland 66 68 68 71 71 73 62 76 73 73 64 78 53 100 73
Woolley 78 80 54 74 61 67 78 72 75 63 80 80 43 73 100
34
The result of all votes is placed on the map too - the closer each
councillor is to the result, the higher their win-rate.
Looking at the data this way offers extra insight into the power
dynamic on Council.
For example, it appears that Councillors Stevenson and Carra are far
apart from each other on policy matters, with Pootmans in a midway or
compromise point between the two.
0.4
0.3
Pincott
Colley-Urquhart
0.2
Farrell
Woolley
Stevenson
0.1 Carra
Jones
Pootmans Nenshi
Magliocca Sutherland
-0.1
Keating
-0.2
Chu
Demong
Chabot
-0.3
-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
35
36
39%
CARRA
51%
NENSHI
57%
58%
63% 36%
68%
68% 50%
70%
71% 59%
75%
77% 59%
78%
80% 62%
80%
65%
66%
68%
CHU
46%
48% 69%
50%
51% 75%
54%
57% 78%
57%
60% 78%
63%
64%
80%
65%
65%
82%
68%
72%
Figure 14 Council member pairings on divided votes (Calgary, 2013-2017)
55% 47% 44%
JONES
63% 57% 57%
DEMONG
65% 59% 63%
65% 62% 64%
65% 63% 66%
68% 63% 66%
68% 66% 66%
69% 67% 69%
COLLEY-URQUHART
FARRELL
KEATING
65% 54% 57%
65% 55% 57%
66% 57% 59%
67% 62% 61%
68% 63% 63%
70% 65% 65%
71% 66% 65%
71% 73% 67%
72% 78% 68%
73% 78% 69%
75% 79% 69%
77% 82% 71%
Figure 14 Council member pairings on divided votes (Calgary, 2013-2017)
37
38
53% 50% 54%
62% 64% 57%
64% 67% 57%
66% 69%
POOTMANS
58% MAGLIOCCA
68% 71% 59%
SUTHERLAND
68% 73% 63%
71% 73% 64%
71% 75% 67%
73% 76% 67%
73% 77% 69%
73% 77% 69%
73% 77% 70%
76% 78% 72%
78% 80% 73%
WOOLLEY
63% 39% 57%
STEVENSON
This shows roughly how closely each councillor votes to the average of
the rest of council on any individual vote.
The higher the percentage, the more support that council member
enjoys from their peers, on average.
This suggests that, despite the data suggesting some clear clusters of
councillors, the two clusters themselves are not too far apart from each
other.
TITLE
72%
70%
69%
68%
68%
67%
66%
66%
65%
64%
64%
64%
63%
59%
46%
39
VIII. COALITIONS
40
Using all of this data, we can compare council members outlook
toward the rest of council to see if they, as groups, tend to agree or
disagree with certain individuals.
Council members Woolley and Carra very often vote the same way
(80% of divided votes), as shown in Figure 16, as do Councillors Chu
and Magliocca (72%).
The data also appears to show two reasonably clear coalitions of five
councillors each.
Nenshi, Carra, Farrell, Pincott, and Woolley tend to vote together quite
often (Figure 18).
Using the data in Table 1, these graphs can be generated for any
combination of two or more councillors.
41
Figure 16 Woolley and Carra voting patterns (Calgary, 2013-2017)
100% TITLE
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Carra Woolley
100% TITLE
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Farrell Stevenson
42
Figure 18 Coalition 1 (Calgary, 2013-2017)
100% TITLE
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
100% TITLE
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
TITLE
92.30%
92.84%
92.52%
91.68%
89.84%
89.53%
88.53%
86.20%
87.19%
85.10%
82.64%
81.59%
78.97%
74.41%
66.84%
44
WHAT IS THE USE OF
LIVING, IF IT BE NOT
TO STRIVE FOR NOBLE
CAUSES AND TO MAKE
THIS MUDDLED WORLD
A BETTER PLACE FOR
THOSE WHO WILL LIVE
IN IT AFTER WE ARE
GONE?
- Winston Churchill
45
IX. CONCLUSION
46
Democracy itself was an invention of the city-state politics of
ancient Greece, so it is appropriate that efforts toward democratic
accountability be made at the municipal level.
Better data also allows for better decisions, for voters and elected
officials alike.
We are just beginning our research in this area, and will continue to
expand Council Tracker to more issues and more cities across Canada.
ww.counciltracker.ca
47
X. NOTES
48
1. The Manning Foundation firmly believes in open data. For more
information, including databases of all the votes studied,
and the source data used to build each of the figures comprising
this report, please visit our website:
http://www.counciltracker.ca
4. Thank you to Jeromy Farkas for his role in the creation of the
Council Tracker project and to Angela Irons, John Whittaker,
Danielle Hartung, and Dan Osborne for their work on
previous editions of the report.
49
6. References for previous work on municipal vote tracking
conducted by the Manning Foundation:
50
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